textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026

- There is a medium to high chance for severe weather Sunday night into Monday morning. There's increasing concern for widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes. - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Severe weather is expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

A deep trough with a strong low pressure system is expected to slide through the Central US and push a cold front into Central Alabama. We're expecting a line of storms to move quickly along that frontal boundary. Widespread damaging wind appears to be the highest threat; however, strong low level and deep layer shear will certainly raise the potential for a few embedded tornadoes with this line. Currently, the lines of storms is expected to move into Central Alabama around 9pm - 11pm and exit the region to our southeast by 6- 7 am Monday morning.

Intability doesn't appear to be as much of an uncertainty as it has been in the past few days. Latest model trends have become more consistent with anywhere between 700-1200 J/kg of surface-based CAPE. Given the strong dynamics and strong low level jet, this should easily be able to support the severe storms that are shown, along with supporting embedded tornadoes.

Monday will be much colder just after this cold front moves through. Monday daytime highs are only expected to top out in the 40s for most locations. A widespread freeze is expected Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning with at least a low to medium chance for a hard freeze for some of our colder locations across the north on Tuesday morning. Broad high pressure builds across the region for the remainder of next week, keeping Central AL rain free and moderating to more seasonable temperatures as we go through the second half of the week.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours with mostly clear skies and generally light winds initially. As our next system approaching from the west late in the period, expect increasing high clouds. We'll also see increasing winds with gusts up to 18kts as we get close to 17-18z tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing these gusts a little earlier and potentially increasing to 25kts by 18z, but will hold off on that trend for now.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing moisture is expected Sunday ahead of another strong cold front that will move through Sunday night into Monday morning. Much colder and drier conditions expected Monday through Wednesday. Winds will be gusty and likely exceed critical thresholds Monday, but RHs should remain in the low 30% range. Winds decrease through the remainder of the week but RHs will drop into the low 20% range for many locations Tuesday afternoon and again across the south Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 52 76 34 48 / 0 10 100 30 Anniston 54 77 38 50 / 0 10 90 40 Birmingham 57 77 37 48 / 0 10 100 30 Tuscaloosa 55 79 37 48 / 0 10 100 20 Calera 55 78 37 50 / 0 10 100 30 Auburn 57 77 43 54 / 0 10 90 50 Montgomery 57 80 41 53 / 0 10 90 40 Troy 57 79 43 55 / 0 10 90 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.