textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1248 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026

- Major to Extreme Heat: A significant heat risk is expected to persist late this week through the weekend, with heat indices reaching 105-110 degrees. Heat Advisories are in effect.

- Convective Pattern: Typical summertime convection is expected with low coverage (20-50%), primarily focusing on southern Alabama while central/north-central areas remain largely dry.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026

Latest water vapor imagery reveals an upper level ridge building out to our west with a shortwave moving along the eastern periphery of the ridge, which is helping push some showers and storms across the Tennessee Valley this evening. At the surface, high pressure is currently centered across the Northern Gulf. This feature will likely remain anchored across the Gulf through the work week with a slight jaunt to the north over the weekend. The upper level ridge will expand and strengthen through the week, allowing for temps to steadily warm up through the week with highs eventually settling into the mid to upper 90s for most of Central Alabama. Continued humid conditions combined with these temps will bump heat indices into the 105-110 degree range. The latest ECMWF EFI hints at unusually warm temperatures for us over the weekend, generally 10 degrees above normal for mid August. This will lead to a major to extreme heat risk for Central Alabama late this week and over the weekend. Heat Advisories are currently in effect for Thursday and Friday. These will likely be extended through the weekend.

This pattern will promote a typically summertime convection regime with low to moderate (20-50%) chances for showers and storms. Greatest chances for showers and storms will be across our southern areas as deeper moisture spreads inland. Those across central and north-central Alabama will likely remain dry as ridging helps keep a lid on things.

Otherwise, fog potential is low tonight. RAP guidance hints at narrowing dew points and a few pockets of lowering condensation pressure deficits. This would lead to some patchy fog, generally for those that saw some rain earlier today.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue, with winds remaining light and variable overnight. Expect westerly winds to increase through the day, generally 7-10 knots. Dry conditions are expected throughout the period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 50 percent through Thursday. As ridging builds Friday, conditions will turn slightly drier, with MinRH values dropping into the mid 40 percent range in the southwest. By the weekend, MinRH values will further decrease to near 35-40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. While low shower and storm chances will persist through late week, the activity will become isolated and more confined to eastern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 95 76 97 75 / 10 10 20 0 Anniston 93 75 94 75 / 10 10 20 10 Birmingham 95 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 97 77 98 76 / 10 10 10 0 Calera 96 76 97 75 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 92 76 93 77 / 20 10 20 10 Montgomery 97 77 98 77 / 20 10 20 10 Troy 95 75 96 75 / 20 10 30 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.