textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

- A marginal to slight risk (levels 1 to 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for late Wednesday into early Thursday. Threats include isolated, brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

- Very beneficial rainfall is expected to fall through Thursday evening, with most locations seeing 2 plus inches of rain during this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Surface ridging will continue to dominate the next 48-hours of the forecast, resulting in limited rain chances through Wednesday. Afternoon highs will begin to rise, climbing a few degrees each day, before settling into the upper-70s and 80s by Wednesday as well . However, by the afternoon hours of Wednesday, a trough and cold front will begin working closer to the region, setting the stage for our next round of overnight heavy thunderstorms.

At the time of this discussion, portions of the region remain highlighted in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center. Bulk shear values across the region are more than sufficient for damaging winds, and stout mid-level lapse rates would support large hail. However, forecast instability values are the main question mark right now, as some evening guidance is far more aggressive than others. Values currently range from 500 J/Kg to 1500 J/Kg of instability. Each of these scenarios would result in vastly different outcomes for our overall severe weather threat . Another caveat is the capping inversion, which some medium-range guidance holds onto into the overnight hours This would ultimately suppress thunderstorm development, limiting our severe weather threat. Right now, there still appears to be too many variables in place to fully commit to a time or threat, and confidence in the severe weather for Wednesday night is currently very low.

One thing we have higher confidence in right now is another good soaking of much needed rainfall. Given how this rainfall will be convective in nature, these values are certainly subject to change depending on rainfall rates, but some locations could see 2.5 inches of rain through Friday. In general, most locations across the area can expect to see 1.5+ inches of rain, with medium confidence in more than a few 2+ inch locations.

The cold front should work through the region during the day on Thursday, settling somewhere to the south of us. It still looks like the NBM is holding onto PoPs a little bit longer than it should given the placement of the cold front. This will most likely start to align here in the next few days, and will be worth monitoring if you have weekend plans. Otherwise, look for a pleasant start to the weekend, with highs settling into the low- 80s by Sunday.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

Confidence remains high for VFR conditions throughout the TAF period due to the influence of surface high pressure across the Southeast US. Southwest winds this afternoon will become southerly on Tuesday due to shifts in the surface ridge.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will stay between 30 to 40 percent for all this afternoon and for the southeastern half of the area on Tuesday, as a surface ridge keeps dry air in the region. These values will begin to rebound on Wednesday, as the next organized system works into the area. Right now, there is high confidence in organized rain chances Wednesday into Thursday, with some locations seeing 2 plus inches of rain. Given recent rainfall, and the upcoming rainfall, this should keep fire weather concerns limited given the wet fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 48 78 59 80 / 0 10 20 70 Anniston 52 80 61 82 / 0 10 10 60 Birmingham 55 79 63 81 / 0 10 10 60 Tuscaloosa 54 82 63 84 / 0 10 10 70 Calera 52 81 61 84 / 0 10 10 60 Auburn 53 80 61 84 / 0 0 0 30 Montgomery 51 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 49 81 60 87 / 0 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.