textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

- Strong Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will persist through the first half of the week, with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds.

- Heat: Heat indices will climb by the middle of the week. There is medium to high confidence in Heat Advisory criteria being met during the second half of the week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026

A 596 decameter subtropical ridge will strengthen over Florida and the eastern Gulf today. The slight increase in heights and flow aloft becoming a bit more anticyclonic may result in a decrease in convective coverage especially the further south you go. However, there will be little air mass change with PWATs in excess of 2 inches, and wet ground conditions remain present. Additionally, a weak shear axis will remain located along the TN/AL border which could serve as a focus for convective development eventually propagating southward on outflow boundaries. Therefore, we expect a persistence forecast and have increased PoPs above NBM, in line with the latest HREF calibrated thunder probabilities. With the continued very unstable, high PWAT air mass, locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat as well as isolated flash flooding primarily in urban areas. In addition, expect frequent lightning and gusty winds, with a continued risk for isolated instances of damaging winds. Heat indices will approach 105 degrees in West Alabama ahead of any convection, but coverage and duration are expected to be too limited to warrant a heat advisory. Tuesday and Wednesday the ridge will slowly drift westward along the Gulf Coast, placing Central Alabama under weak northwest flow aloft. Expect a similar stormy pattern to continue with heat indices once again approaching advisory criteria.

Thursday through the weekend, the ridge strengthens and builds northward over the Gulf Coast states. This should result in a decrease in convective coverage, but low probabilities will remain each day given the hot and humid conditions. Heat indices of 105-110 should become more widespread resulting in medium to high (50-80%) chances for heat advisories. HeatRisk will increase into the Major category across much of the area, with limited recovery from the heat overnight.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

Most shower activity has dissipated at all sites, therefore VFR conditions are in place. Winds are expected to be light and variable overnight, though there is a medium chance for MVFR visibilities at EET and TCL near sunrise, where TEMPO groups have been included. High pressure will strengthen during the day, keeping winds light at less than 7 knots. Despite the building high pressure, the typical summertime diurnal convection is expected again in the afternoon through 03Z. Greatest convective coverage is expected across northern sites (TCL, BHM, EET and MGM) and moving into AUO after 21Z, warranting PROB30 groups for TSRA at all terminals.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected daily. Because of this, elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 74 93 74 / 50 20 50 10 Anniston 91 73 90 74 / 40 20 50 10 Birmingham 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 60 10 Tuscaloosa 94 75 93 75 / 40 20 50 10 Calera 92 74 92 74 / 40 20 60 10 Auburn 89 74 89 75 / 40 20 40 10 Montgomery 94 75 94 76 / 40 20 30 10 Troy 93 74 94 74 / 30 20 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.