textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026

- Dense Fog formation is expected overnight tonight through Saturday morning across eastern and southeastern portions of Central Alabama. Locations that should see the most impacts due to fog development will be along the major river basins and along and south of I-85. - A dry and above normal temperature pattern will continue through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1114 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026

Shallow fog is already developing across eastern and southeastern Alabama as ideal radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to quickly reach the dewpoint. A moisture and temperature gradient still remains across the state stretching from Demopolis northeastward to Birmingham and Gadsden, which is what's left of the surface front. Locations east and southeast of this gradient will see the best chance for fog formation, with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 50s. Lingering surface moisture due to previous rainfall from the last 24 hours will also aid in the formation of fog. A majority of high-res guidance members have been in good agreement with fog development this evening. HREF probabilities are coming in with over a 50% chance of 1/2 mile or less visibility especially in eastern and southeastern counties south of the I-85 corridor. Therefore, I've gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for a good portion of the CWA as far west as St. Clair, Shelby, Chilton, and Dallas Counties through 8am Saturday morning. Mainly for the far western counties in the advisory, I wanted to cover the major river basins and major lakes (such as the Coosa River and Lay/Logan Martin Lakes) which have a high likelihood of seeing dense fog by sunrise Saturday. Otherwise, valley locations will also see fog development starting out as shallow ground fog and eventually increasing in coverage after midnight.

Following the fog mixing out Saturday morning, we'll begin a streak of tranquil, warm, and dry weather days that could last through at least Wednesday of the upcoming week. Surface high pressure will remain over the Deep South through this weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and light winds. The diurnal curve will be fairly pronounced each day due to drier air staying in place at the surface, with lows dropping down into the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight. The next upper level impulse will eject eastward across the Rocky Mountain states and Great Plains by early next week within westerly to northwesterly flow at 500mb. However, guidance is advertising ridging and southwesterly flow at 700mb over the ArkLaTex Sunday evening, which diverts the best lift and associated precipitation off to our north during the day on Monday. As a more zonal 500mb flow pattern develops by this time, a cold front is progged to stall out to our north over Tennessee before lifting back north as a warm front on Tuesday. As such, PoPs were kept out of the forecast for Monday with only an increase in clouds across the northern half of Alabama. Highs in the mid to upper 70s will continue, with perhaps slightly cooler temperatures by Tuesday east of I-65 as a CAD wedge tries to build in from the northeast.

The atmospheric profile then becomes southerly at the surface to southwesterly aloft by Wednesday through the end of next week as a storm system attempts to approach from the west. As of right now, guidance is showing the upper ridge winning that battle and a cold front not allowed to move any farther south than Memphis. If that solution verifies, we could be looking at high temperatures approaching record territory by Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 80s. No significant opportunity for rainfall and certainly no hazardous weather appears to be on the horizon for the next 7 to 10 days.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026

At KMGM and KAUO, fog will continue to produce LIFR visibility and/or ceilings near and below airport minimums. Conditions should slowly improve after 14-15z and become VFR around 15-17Z.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at KBHM, KEET, and KTCL.

Winds will be less than 6 knots and variable in direction through the TAF period.

The next TAF cycle will require a close look at fog potential for Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Min RH values during the afternoon are forecast to fall into the 30-40% range through early next week with little to no chance for any rainfall. Thankfully, 20ft winds will remain light which help negate significant fire weather concerns. Looking into the long- term forecast, soil and fuel moistures will continue to drop as afternoon temperatures rise into the 70s and perhaps into the 80s by the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 42 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 73 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 74 48 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 77 48 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 74 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 72 49 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 74 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 74 48 77 51 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Chilton-Clay- Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike- Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.