textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: There is level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern portions of Alabama Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

The radar is clear across Central Alabama at this time with an overall more quiet night experienced. Our surface boundary is stalled across Central Alabama. It is expected to linger in this area through the short term through midweek. In the upper levels, we continue with a low Eastern Canada, tonight over Quebec and southward into the Great Lakes and much of Eastern Conus. Through midweek, this low will weaken, but another Central Canada low will cycle through to replace it keeping the overall East Conus troughing. At the same time, there is also a large ridge that extends from Arizona to Texas. This leaves Central Alabama in a northwest flow regime. Tuesday will be another low storm chance day with the southeast counties having the best shot at a few storms with the heat of the day. Wednesday into the latter part of the week shows increasing chances for convection as the surface boundary moves back northward before fizzling. However, the northwest flow will assist in another front making it into the area in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will keep unsettled conditions along with scattered slightly higher storm chances in through the latter part of the week as moisture increases. By this weekend, guidance continues to suggest an expansion of our Southwest US ridge eastward across the Southern US. This will mean a warming trend and more diurnally induced convection for the area, and creeping up heat indices by the beginning of next week.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

Patchy fog is currently expanding across the region, with various levels of reduced VIS being reported. Expect VIS to remain reduced at EET, TCL, MGM, and AUO through 25/14z, before starting to mix out. Otherwise, VFR conditions will be expected for the rest of this TAF period under a stable airmass.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Drier air will continue to be slow to vacate the area with lower minimum relative humidity values 35 to 50% from east to west through Tuesday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually returns as we head into midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 69 93 70 / 0 0 30 30 Anniston 92 69 92 71 / 0 0 30 30 Birmingham 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 30 30 Tuscaloosa 95 73 95 73 / 0 10 40 40 Calera 93 72 93 72 / 0 0 30 30 Auburn 91 72 90 73 / 20 10 40 30 Montgomery 95 72 95 73 / 10 10 40 30 Troy 93 71 93 71 / 40 20 40 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.