textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

- There is a marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening for the northwest portion of Central Alabama.

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into next week. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

A couple of key features will be at play for Sunday and Monday. First, a slow-moving and weak shortwave trough will move through the region through at least Monday, which will provide some broad lift for the area both Sunday and Monday. Second, a remnant MCV from a decaying MCS in the plains will shift through the Mid-MS Valley and provide some focus for initiating convection by Sunday afternoon.

As we go through the upcoming week the slow-moving trough shifts out of the area Monday into Tuesday, but remains just to the north through the next several days. Guidance suggests more of a typical summertime pattern of diurnal thunderstorm activity, which is around 30-40% chance for thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, decreasing overnight. Temperatures are expected to also be closer to normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

Very few thunderstorms have been able to develop across the region this afternoon, so have left mention of TSRA out of the TAFS for the remainder of tonight. With the high pressure in place, expect VFR conditions with generally light to calm winds through the period. Expect higher coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening as a weak upper shortwave moves through. I have included prob30s for TSRA from 21z - 00z tomorrow. This could linger through 03z, but overall coverage should diminish after 00z.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions will continue into next week, with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 72 90 72 / 50 30 70 30 Anniston 93 73 89 73 / 50 30 70 40 Birmingham 93 74 90 74 / 50 40 70 30 Tuscaloosa 93 74 90 74 / 50 30 70 20 Calera 96 73 92 73 / 50 40 70 40 Auburn 93 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 40 Montgomery 94 74 91 74 / 50 30 70 40 Troy 93 73 91 73 / 40 20 60 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.