textproduct: NWS Birmingham

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 359 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024

This AM, the satellite picture is indicating a lot of mid level clouds across the area. Heights have progressively lowered through the night. The radar is indicating light rain showers scattered about portions of C AL, more so across the SW half. This is associated with an upper shortwave moving across AL at this hour. We are still rather stable, so only light rain showers are expected for this morning into early afternoon. After that, the activity should taper down as the wave weakens and moves out of AL into GA and the Carolinas. For late this afternoon into this evening, there will be break or gap in the activity. A second stronger shortwave that is currently over the TX Panhandle (and NWD) will move EWD across TX today. It is expected to swing to the NE this evening across LA/MS into W TN with activity scraping C AL as well. Our best rain chances will be across the NW half of C AL closer to this propagating wave late tonight into Friday. Temperatures will continue creeping upward a little, but not greatly with the increased cloud cover and rain possibilities.

08

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024

Key Messages:

- A system will develop over the Lower MS River Valley on Saturday, bringing showers and storms to the area with a risk for a few severe storms during the afternoon & evening.

- Severe threats include a couple tornadoes, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, and quarter size hail.

A line of showers will be pushing across the area Friday night as the first of two systems lifts towards the Great Lakes. At the same time, another trough will be deepening over Oklahoma and Texas, priming a more active weather day for us on Saturday/Saturday night. WAA/isentropic lift will drive scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms during the day on Saturday which may hamper heating depending on how much coverage we see, but still forecasting highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A surface low is expected to form over Arkansas then track across the Tennessee Valley Saturday night while the associated cold front moves through the area. Although the system isn't particularly strong, it should produce more organized convection as the enhanced dynamics and pressure falls lead to wind fields that are more conducive for organized thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms capable of producing tornadoes or damaging winds, mainly Saturday afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings seem to indicate at least some risk for large hail as well. This still appears to be a lower end threat as the "messy" rainfall during the day could spoil the necessary thermodynamic parameters for strong/severe convection, and instability will decrease further as we move into the overnight hours.

The rain will move out of the area Sunday morning, but the synoptic pattern looks to briefly flatten out in a zonal orientation while a surface high moves across the Gulf Coast, so don't expect much of a cool down on Monday. Another system will develop over the Midwest Monday night, bringing more scattered showers to the area on Tuesday as a cold front rapidly swings across Central Alabama. Deep northwesterly flow will follow behind this frontal passage, so colder and drier conditions are expected by the middle of the week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024

Expect increasing mid level and high clouds from the west through overnight. Chances for shower activity will exist across the far southern portions area overnight through early morning, but potential is too low to include at any terminal location with little to no accumulation expected. Low-level winds will remain light through 14z and then increase to 6-8 kts in the morning. Winds will remain on the high side through the end of the period, between 7 and 10 kts.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Light showers will persist across portions of the area this morning. Moisture levels will continue to increase over the next several days as a stormy weekend is expected beginning tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning. Rain amounts will vary from 1 to 3 inches across most of the state with highest amounts expected in the north. There will be light southeasterly winds today, but winds will increase to 10-12 mph with gusts up to 28 mph tonight into Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 55 44 59 54 / 10 10 80 90 Anniston 56 45 60 55 / 10 10 80 80 Birmingham 56 48 61 58 / 20 10 80 80 Tuscaloosa 60 49 65 60 / 20 20 90 80 Calera 59 48 64 59 / 20 10 80 80 Auburn 56 45 62 57 / 20 10 20 60 Montgomery 59 48 67 60 / 20 10 40 70 Troy 59 47 68 59 / 20 10 20 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.