textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026

- Heavy Rain: A stalled cold front combined with Gulf moisture will bring potential for heavy rainfall through the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning.

- Heat: Intense heat returns early next week. Expect temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 from Monday through mid-week, with heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026

The stalled cold front is still anticipated to ebb and flow across the region through the weekend, keeping rain chances in the forecast through Sunday. Given plenty of Gulf moisture still working into the region, heavy rainfall is likely over the next 48-hours as storms slowly move along the stalled front. Given the increased risk for Flash Flooding, the Flood Watch remains in effect until Saturday for a handful of our northeast counties, where the highest rainfall amounts are expected.

A significant pattern shift is still expected to take place by the start of next week, as a stout upper-level ridge over the Plains begins to shift southeast. Afternoon high temperatures will quickly climb into the mid and upper-90s by Monday, lingering through the middle of next week. Some guidance even has a large swath of triple-digit afternoon highs on Tuesday. Given recent rainfall, triple-digit temperatures are likely a bit overdone, but confidence is already high that heat index values will surpass 105 degrees. Because of this, heat headlines already appear likely come the start of the new workweek.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions will persist through early morning, followed by some improvement by late morning with best flying conditions south. Clouds will persist across the north with increasing chances for showers and storms as a stalled front remains across this portion of the forecast area. Confidence is high enough to include a TEMPO group for showers and storms at all sites starting at 20z. Shower and storm activity will decrease overnight but may persist near BHM/TCL beyond 25/00z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 72 88 72 / 90 20 60 60 Anniston 86 73 87 73 / 90 20 60 50 Birmingham 88 74 88 74 / 90 20 70 40 Tuscaloosa 89 75 90 75 / 70 10 50 20 Calera 91 74 91 74 / 80 10 60 30 Auburn 90 75 88 75 / 50 20 50 40 Montgomery 93 75 92 75 / 30 20 50 20 Troy 93 74 92 74 / 20 20 40 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah.