textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for late Wednesday into Thursday. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the main threats.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026

By tomorrow, a surface ridge will have the region firmly in its grasp, resulting in subsidence aloft for the next few days. This will suppress rain chances, and allow for at least a brief drying period through the middle of the workweek. Temperatures will slowly start to rebound during this time as well, with highs getting back into the low to mid-80s by Wednesday afternoon.

This pattern will be short lived, as the next rain producer starts to take shape to our west. Here, a longwave trough and cold front will begin to work east off the Rockies, eventually working into the region sometime Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon hours, with far more organized activity expected overnight as the front itself works into the region. As of right now, the region is highlighted in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center for this activity during the overnight hours. Confidence right now is low when it comes to forecast instability values for Wednesday night, but there is plenty of shear ahead of this line as it works through the area. In the event storms do become severe, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats. With that being said, I would say the overall confidence in this severe weather threat is low, as there are still plenty of discrepancies in guidance when it comes to the timing of this event.

The front should fully push through the region by Friday morning, making it all the way into the Gulf and central Florida. While the NBM maintains rain chances Friday onward, rain probability will likely decrease if the cold front drops that far south. Otherwise, pleasant conditions are expected next weekend, as afternoon highs settle into the upper-70s and low-80s.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Confidence is high in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period due to surface high pressure and dry air.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry air will remain flowing into the region, as MinRH values will stay between 30-40% through Tuesday. However, these values will begin to rebound by Wednesday, as the next organized system works into the region. Right now, there is high confidence in organized rain chances Wednesday night, with some locations seeing 1+ inches of rain. Given recent rainfall, and the upcoming rainfall, this should keep fire weather concerns limited given the wet fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 42 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 71 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 71 49 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 73 48 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 73 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 72 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 73 46 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 73 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.