textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026

- Medium to high (50-80%) of rain expected today across Central AL, with the best chances in the south this morning and across the north this afternoon.

- Sharp drop in temperatures expected Thursday with wind chills in the teens Thursday morning and daytime highs only reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s.

- Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Through next Tuesday) Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026

A couple of rounds of rain are expected today across Central AL. Initially, a shortwave moves in from the southwest leading to medium (40-60%) chance for rain for the southern half of the area early this morning. Then the main trough slides into the region, pushing a cold front southward into Central AL this afternoon and evening. This will lead to medium to high (60-80%) chance for rain. The expectation is that all precip will be south and east of the area tonight before temperatures really start to fall below freezing overnight. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low to mid 20s area-wide with wind chills in the teens. Thursday is going to be a cold day across the area with highs only reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s and wind chills in the low to mid 30s.

Another weak shortwave could lead to some low rain chances Friday night into early Saturday, but temperatures should be in the 40s as the wave comes through. There's not alot of confidence in the moisture availability with this round, so rain chances are limited to 20-30%.

Another larger trough is then expected to move through Saturday night into Sunday morning. We will likely have the same struggles with moisture return ahead of this trough, so model guidance continue to show little to no chance for precipitation. After that trough swings through Sunday morning, high pressure builds into the region Monday through Tuesday with the colder air mass in place. Diurnal temperatures will run below normal through the weekend and early next week.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026

We have a couple of systems moving through the area today - the first sliding through the southern half of Central AL this morning and the second moving in from the north this afternoon. Because of both, CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR around 12-14z and continue to drop to IFR through the afternoon as the rain moves through the area. There's some uncertainty on when the low clouds will develop as the rain will have to saturate the otherwise dry low-level profiles. Winds shift from westerly to northerly tonight with gradual improvement to CIGs this tonight from around 03- 06z. Dry air builds in behind the front after 06z leading to a return of VFR conditions towards the end of the period.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Rainy conditions expected today across the area with drier air moving in behind the cold front for Thursday into Friday. Min RHs will approach or drop below critical values for most of the area Thursday and potentially in the eastern counties for Friday. Another couple of systems will move through Friday night through Saturday but moisture return is limited so I don't think we'll see good chances for wetting rains. Dry conditions return Saturday through Tuesday with Min RHs once again approaching or dropping below critical values. The positive note will be that this dry air is accompanied by cold temperatures and winds should remain below critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 52 20 38 18 / 70 20 0 0 Anniston 53 22 38 21 / 60 20 0 0 Birmingham 51 24 39 23 / 60 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 54 24 42 24 / 60 10 0 0 Calera 53 22 41 23 / 50 20 0 0 Auburn 51 26 40 24 / 60 20 0 0 Montgomery 54 26 43 23 / 50 20 0 0 Troy 55 27 43 22 / 50 20 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.