textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026

- Major Heat Risk: A heat advisory is in effect this afternoon through 9 pm for the north and west counties. After that time, the heat advisory will expand to all Central Alabama counties for Thursday and Friday. Additional advisories will likely be issued for this weekend. There is high confidence in dangerous heat with heat indices reaching 105-110 degrees daily from Wednesday through the weekend.

- Severe Storms: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through this evening for the north and east portions of Central Alabama. The main threat is isolated damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026

This afternoon, surface high pressure is present across the Northern Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge is also centered across the Northern Gulf Coast with weak northwest flow across Central Alabama. At the surface, little change is expected through the short term (Thu/Fri), but aloft, the ridge should shift northward. This will help to suppress convection and build the heat over us. Over this weekend, guidance shows increased probability of an expanding upper ridge over the southeast two thirds of Conus, making evening isolated diurnal convection by Sun/Mon difficult. In the near term, any storms that do pop up this afternoon and evening could grow with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

Outside of any storms, the heat will be the main story. We continue with a heat advisory for the north/west portions of the area this afternoon. After that in response to the growing ridge, the heat advisory has been expanded for Thursday and Friday to include all Central Alabama counties. There will not be any major features to help to cool the area off, so look for a high probability of heat advisories to be continued into this weekend. There is a medium to high chance that some areas (especially west) could see triple digit high temperatures by this weekend into the beginning of next week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026

VFR conditions continue outside of any convection this evening. BHM is most likely to see a quick shower/storm over the next hour or two. We will need to monitor for additional development along any lingering boundaries throughout the evening. Overall, chances are low so we did not include any mention in the TAFs with this update. Otherwise, light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the west through the day Thursday, generally 7-10 knots.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 50 percent through Thursday. As ridging builds Friday, conditions will turn slightly drier, with MinRH values dropping into the mid 40 percent range in the southwest. By the weekend, MinRH values will further decrease to near 35-40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. While low shower and storm chances will persist through late week, the activity will become isolated and more confined to eastern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 95 76 97 / 20 20 10 10 Anniston 74 93 75 93 / 20 20 10 10 Birmingham 76 95 77 96 / 20 20 20 10 Tuscaloosa 77 97 77 99 / 10 20 10 0 Calera 75 95 76 97 / 20 20 20 10 Auburn 75 91 76 93 / 20 30 10 10 Montgomery 77 97 77 98 / 20 30 10 20 Troy 75 95 75 96 / 20 30 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne-Lee-Macon-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Tallapoosa.