textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

- Major to Extreme Heat: A significant heat risk is expected to persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week, with heat indices reaching 105 to near 110 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026

As of writing, a few showers and storms are lingering across our southern counties as an outflow boundary slowly works north across the state. Based on persistence from the last few nights, additional development is likely over the next couple of hours with activity generally fizzling out by midnight. These storms would mainly produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Latest water vapor imagery reveals upper level ridging strengthening across the southeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is currently centered across the Northern Gulf. This feature will likely remain anchored across the Gulf through the work week with a slight jaunt to the north over the weekend. The upper level ridge will expand and strengthen through the week, allowing for temps to steadily warm up through the week with highs eventually settling into the 95-101F range for most of Central Alabama. Continued humid conditions combined with these temps will bump heat indices into the 105-110 degree range. This will lead to a major to extreme heat risk for Central Alabama late this week and over the weekend. A Heat Advisory is currently in effect through Saturday evening. These will likely be extended through the remainder of the weekend. A few locations may briefly reach 110-112 degrees Friday afternoon. Confidence in areal coverage is not high enough to warrant an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning at this time. We will need to monitor the trends through the day tomorrow.

This pattern will promote a typically summertime convection regime with low to moderate (20-50%) chances for showers and storms. Greatest chances for showers and storms will be across our southern areas as deeper moisture spreads inland. Those across central and north-central Alabama will likely remain dry as ridging helps keep a lid on things.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected outside of any convection. Confidence in afternoon summertime diurnal convection ranges from low to medium in the west to medium to high in the east. Cumulus fields are noted as building on satellite with hot and humid conditions areawide. Mentioned VCSH for all this afternoon, with TSRA PROB30s for all except AUO where better confidence was present, so I used a TEMPO. Outside of convection, winds will be W-WNW 6-9kts with mixing and light/variable overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 45 percent through this afternoon. As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through late week, with the activity becoming more confined to southeastern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 76 98 76 98 / 20 10 0 0 Anniston 75 95 74 95 / 20 20 0 10 Birmingham 77 97 76 98 / 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 77 100 76 100 / 20 10 0 0 Calera 76 97 75 98 / 20 10 0 0 Auburn 76 92 75 92 / 20 40 10 20 Montgomery 77 97 76 98 / 20 30 10 10 Troy 75 95 74 95 / 20 50 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.