textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026

- Highest rain chances will remain across southeast Central Alabama through Sunday, with passing showers and thunderstorms expected to develop each afternoon.

- A hotter and drier pattern is forecast to return across the Deep South by the middle and end of next week. Temperatures slowly return to the mid 90s by Wednesday and perhaps dangerous levels once again by Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026

The short-term weather pattern across Central Alabama continues to be defined by a slow-moving upper-level shortwave trough meandering along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, a prevailing northerly flow is facilitating the steady advection of a drier and slightly cooler airmass into the northern portions of the forecast area. This influx of lower dewpoints is effectively limiting moisture availability across the far north, keeping the focus of any diurnal convective activity strictly confined to the southern and central counties over the next 12 to 36 hours. While the overall severe weather threat remains low due to weak vertical wind shear, atmospheric conditions will still support localized convective development where moisture remains deeper. Showers are already developing along a convergence zone associated with the shortwave energy to our south. Look for the convergence zone to be between I-59 and I-85 today and into the evening hours.

A significant pattern transition is expected as we move into early next week. Computer model guidance is in better agreement regarding the building of a broad, high-amplitude upper-level ridge. This high-pressure system is projected to shift from the western states toward the east, establishing a significant axis stretching from Arkansas to the Carolinas. This building ridge will act to shear out the stubborn Gulf Coast low and steer the remaining shortwave energy westward toward the Mississippi River. As the ridge establishes dominance over the regional weather, it will create a subsidence cap that effectively suppresses daily convection across the entire forecast area, although isolated afternoon showers will still remain plausible..

With the suppression of rain chances to levels below climatological normals, temperatures will steadily climb back well into the 90s. The combination of building heat and lingering surface moisture will likely necessitate another round of Heat Advisories. Current trends suggest that these heat products will become increasingly likely starting around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week as the ridge axis centers itself over the Deep South.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA development is anticipated near MGM, EET, TCL, and AUO this afternoon and evening, driven by peak diurnal instability. High confidence (80%) exists in VFR flight categories, though confidence in convective timing and coverage remains medium; consequently, PROB30 groups are maintained for the 18Z-03Z timeframe. Winds will transition from light/variable to southeasterly at 5-7 kts as the surface pressure gradient remains weak.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

With relatively high humidity and light winds, there are no fire weather concerns over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 93 71 94 / 20 30 20 10 Anniston 70 91 70 93 / 20 40 20 10 Birmingham 72 92 73 94 / 20 30 20 10 Tuscaloosa 73 95 74 96 / 20 30 20 10 Calera 71 92 72 94 / 20 40 20 10 Auburn 71 89 72 91 / 20 30 20 20 Montgomery 72 95 74 95 / 20 30 20 20 Troy 70 93 71 94 / 20 40 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.