textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday, with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall possible in the strongest storms

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026

The closed low continues to slowly slide off to the west, with one more day of elevated rain chances in the forecast for today. Once this low fully exits the region by Thursday, most of the rain chances across the area will be diurnally driven, with scattered coverage expected in the afternoon. With that being said, there are some medium rain chances (40-60%) on Thursday north of I-20, as a lingering 700mb boundary well to our north may push more organized stuff south. Otherwise, the scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms is what most people can expect headed into the weekend.

Afternoon highs will slowly begin to climb into Friday, as a ridge starts to build off of the East Coast. Thankfully, it still looks like this ridge will be slightly suppressed through the weekend, keeping afternoon highs in the upper-80s and low-90s. The bad news is, this suppression will be short lived, as the ridge looks to build back in by the start of next week. In turn, afternoon highs could climb once more, reaching the mid-90s in many locations by this time next Tuesday.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026

IFR cigs are ongoing this morning at TAF sites, along with occasional MVFR vis. This should improve by 14-15z to MVFR cigs and VFR vis. Cigs may remain MVFR until midday. Shower and storm activity is expected again this afternoon, most likely over the northern half of Central Alabama. Maintained PROB30 for TSRA for BHM, EET, and TCL after 19z. Activity should diminish after sunset. Guidance suggests low cigs again tomorrow morning for BHM, EET, and TCL. Went with a mention of MVFR cigs in the TAF for now, although that may need to be reduced to IFR in subsequent updates.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Moist conditions will persist through mid-week, keeping MinRH values well above critical thresholds. Widespread rainfall is anticipated as a weak system remains over the region, precluding any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 70 88 71 / 40 20 50 10 Anniston 86 71 88 72 / 40 10 40 10 Birmingham 87 72 89 73 / 40 20 30 10 Tuscaloosa 86 71 90 73 / 40 20 10 0 Calera 89 71 92 73 / 40 20 30 0 Auburn 87 72 88 74 / 20 10 20 0 Montgomery 89 71 91 73 / 20 20 10 0 Troy 88 70 90 72 / 10 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.