textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026

- Following another hard freeze this morning, a welcomed warm- up will occur through Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast areawide.

- Widespread showers return Tuesday night through Wednesday followed by a quick round of colder and drier air behind the cold front for Thursday. No hazardous weather or abnormally cold temperatures are being advertised in the long-range forecast at this time, with guidance advertising mostly dry forecast trends by next weekend.

- Long-range guidance trends are indicating a significant and much warmer pattern change across the U.S. by the week of February 9th. The Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting a high chance for much of the Deep South to observe above normal temperatures during this period.

DISCUSSION

(Through next Sunday) Issued at at 106 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026

Today through Tuesday:

The upcoming 7 to 10 day forecast is expected to be much more on the tranquil side across Central Alabama and the Deep South. During the overnight hours, we'll see some mid-level clouds streaming overhead at times associated with an upper level shortwave. With just enough moisture aloft between 850 and 700mb and some dynamic lift, returns were showing up on GWX and NQA (Memphis) after midnight. Some flurries have been reported with these returns, but are not expected to make it into our forecast area, hitting a wall of dry air aloft. As the shortwave pivots off to the east, most clouds should dissipate through daybreak. With most of the CWA now under clear skies, ideal radiational cooling conditions have taken over and most observations have plummeted into the low and mid 20s. A few spots with clouds hanging on aren't cooling quite as fast just yet, but should quickly drop once clouds dissipate. As is typical with radiational cooling, you can get temperatures drop just as much in the south as you would across the far northeastern valleys. Troy and Eufaula are already at 23 degrees, so upper teens are likely before all is said and done there, along with locations along the U.S. 80 corridor between Demopolis and Selma.

We can all say goodbye to the hard freezing temperatures for at least a few days as the dominant eastern CONUS trough relents across the Southeast through Tuesday. Surface high pressure centered over the northern Gulf will allow warm air advection to commence during the day today as winds become southwesterly. Temperatures will warm nicely by this afternoon into the lower and middle 50s. Clouds will quickly increase overnight tonight through Tuesday morning as the next shortwave impulse ejects eastward from Baja California within the southern jet stream. Widespread, mostly stratiform lift will produce widespread showers over the region as the upper trough loses a bit of steam and becomes very positively tilted in nature. Ahead of an approaching cold front, showers will spread into northwestern Alabama around midday Tuesday and slowly move from northwest to southeast. Before the clouds and showers reach the southern half of the CWA, we could see a "heat wave" for locations such as Selma, Montgomery, Troy, and Eufaula Tuesday afternoon. Guidance is advertising a very good chance of seeing highs in the mid 60s for those locations with strong warm air advection continuing.

Wednesday through Sunday:

Showers will continue to slowly push southeastward Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday before a kicker shortwave diving into Oklahoma and Arkansas finally provides enough upper support to clear the front off to the south and east. Colder and drier air will advect southward during the day on Wednesday over the CWA, but this wave won't be anywhere near as cold as what we've recently dealt with. Still, overnight lows due to cold air advection Thursday morning are advertised to range from the low to mid 20s northwest to near the freezing mark south of I-85. Wind chills could drop back down into the teens and 20s once again, but not quite cold enough to reach Cold Advisory criteria. After a chilly day Thursday in the 40s, westerly flow at the surface will allow for a quick warm-up on Friday into the upper 50s and 60s.

By next weekend, synoptic guidance is in good agreement with another arctic outbreak headed southward over the eastern CONUS, but this time is progged to move more toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States. That solution would keep the Deep South on the southwestern fringe of the coldest air, cooling temperatures down but only near average for early February. Folks in the Northeast states could be dealing with a very significant storm system with lots of snow, potential blizzard conditions, and below zero temperatures moving in behind the system by Sunday. Guidance trends will be interesting to watch for folks up there over the coming days.

Potential Long-Range Outlook:

We have good news for those who love warmer weather: Guidance signals are certainly lining up and trending toward a big pattern shift over the CONUS during the week of February 9th as longwave ridging sets up over much of the CONUS and a trough begins to take shape over the West Coast. The 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook from CPC lines up with these solutions very well, and the Deep South along with much of the country has a high chance of seeing very warm and above average temperatures 9 to 12 days from now. The Daffodils and those early sprouting bulbs will most certainly make an appearance if that forecast holds up!

56/GDG

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with mostly clear skies. Some mid-level scattered to broken clouds will pass over some terminals at times overnight, but ceilings will remain VFR category. Mostly clear conditions are expected during the day on Monday with surface winds becoming southwesterly around 10 knots during the afternoon.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Winds will shift from the southwest through the day today with MinRH values ranging from the mid to upper 20s in the southeast to the upper 30s in the northwest. RH values and moisture will rapidly increase on Tuesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. Widespread rain showers are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, but rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than one-half inch on average. Rain-free conditions will return Thursday afternoon and remain through the weekend, but no critical fire weather conditions are currently anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 19 52 27 60 / 0 0 0 50 Anniston 20 52 31 61 / 0 0 0 30 Birmingham 22 53 34 61 / 0 0 0 50 Tuscaloosa 22 56 33 63 / 0 0 0 60 Calera 19 55 31 63 / 0 0 0 40 Auburn 25 52 32 61 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 23 56 32 66 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 20 55 31 66 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.