textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

- A slight risk (levels 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for late Wednesday into early Thursday. All modes of severe weather are possible.

- Very beneficial rainfall is expected to fall through Thursday evening, with most locations seeing 2 plus inches of rain during this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

The weather story for this forecast period remains the trough and cold front expected to move through into Wednesday, bringing with it heavy rainfall and the threat for severe weather. If you remember my discussion from last night, I highlighted some of the "failure" modes that could occur with this system Wednesday night. Some of these failure modes still exist (strong capping), but some of the other failure modes are beginning to resolve themselves. The main one is forecast instability values. Guidance has started to come around to instability values increasing during the day on Wednesday, settling anywhere from 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of instability. These numbers are more than supportive for organized severe weather, which is why the Storm Prediction Center maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for late Wednesday evening, and into Wednesday night. Given the parameter space, all modes of severe weather would be possible, with the hail threat diminishing once storms become linear.

As upscale growth begins sometime Wednesday evening, these storms will quickly become very efficient rainfall producers given very high precipitable water values. Because of this, heavy rain is also expected with these storms, and confidence is high that most locations will see between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall. Evening guidance has these storms briefly stalling at some point overnight, and given the high rainfall rates, 4+ inches wouldn't be out of the question in a few areas. However, confidence in where these storms will stall is low, and will continue to be evaluated the next two days.

Rain chances will taper off into the weekend, with temperatures falling to a below average feel behind the cold front. However, a surface ridge will quickly set in, allowing temperatures to rebound back into the 80s come Sunday. Thankfully, another reinforcing trough and cold front will move through the region sometime to start the new workweek, increasing rain chances once more, and dropping temperatures back down to a more seasonable feel.

/44/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

Due to a ridge at the surface, confidence is high in VFR conditions for the entire TAF period.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will linger in the 30-40% range for the next two days, before rebounding Wednesday. Here, the next organized system will begin working into the area. Right now, there is high confidence in organized rain chances Wednesday into Thursday, with some locations seeing 2 plus inches of rain. Given recent rainfall, and the upcoming rainfall, this should keep fire weather concerns limited given some damp fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 48 78 60 80 / 0 10 30 70 Anniston 52 79 61 82 / 0 10 20 60 Birmingham 55 79 64 81 / 0 10 20 70 Tuscaloosa 54 81 64 83 / 0 10 10 70 Calera 52 81 61 83 / 0 10 10 60 Auburn 53 80 61 84 / 0 0 10 20 Montgomery 50 82 61 88 / 0 10 10 30 Troy 49 81 60 87 / 0 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.