textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place over the next week with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches are forecast over the entirety of next week, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms moved across much of Central Alabama this afternoon and evening ahead of a surface boundary. Convection is decayed but ongoing at this hour across the counties generally southeast of I-85. The surface boundary may meander a bit further southward tonight, but is expected to stall across the midsection of Alabama during the day Monday and remain stalled through mid week on Wednesday. Temperatures will decrease behind the surface boundary some, but some of that will be more due to increased post front cloud cover and rain chances than a true cold airmass. With broad upper troughing expected along with disturbances interacting with the lingering boundary, the southern half to two thirds of Central Alabama will remain in a very wet pattern with the stalled system for the short term as a result. Onshore moisture increases for the latter part of the week with the front decaying. Toward the end of the week, another frontal system approaches to keep elevated rain chances going into this coming weekend. Extended guidance is now suggesting that next weekend's front may stall across the area as well. This would suggest the wet pattern continuing into next week. Overall QPF continues to creep up with the latest guidance for the week. We are now looking at the potential for 3-7 inches by the end of our 7 day forecast. Roughly 1-2 inches may occur for days 1-2, with an additional 2-5 for days 4-7 with a few locally higher amounts. As we get closer to mid week, we will be looking closely at this guidance for the potential for flooding and resulting watches.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026

A cold front will stall south today, allowing for terminals along and just south of I-20 to remain in VFR category for most of the afternoon. However, afternoon thunderstorms are possible at MGM and AUO given the location of the stalled front, with both terminals carrying TSRA through 16/00z. Low CIGs will quickly begin to move area-wide tomorrow evening, with all terminals falling into MVFR/IFR category by 16/03z.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances continue as a front slowly moves across the region. We will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 82 63 81 66 / 10 20 40 40 Anniston 82 65 79 67 / 10 30 60 60 Birmingham 82 66 80 67 / 10 40 60 50 Tuscaloosa 83 68 80 69 / 30 60 70 50 Calera 84 67 80 68 / 20 60 80 70 Auburn 85 69 75 68 / 50 60 90 80 Montgomery 84 69 77 69 / 90 70 90 80 Troy 85 69 77 68 / 90 70 90 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.