textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 134 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026

- A low to moderate chance is present for showers and thunderstorms through today along and ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 134 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026

Meager convection chances will be present for the rest of the night into today along and ahead of our next frontal system. Guidance continues to show a degraded system that is looking less robust in regards to instability and overall amounts of QPF. As such, severe wording has been removed from the forecast messaging for both the rest of tonight in the west and for this afternoon and evening for the southeast. Conditions clear on Tuesday with rain-free conditions expected across Central Alabama and high pressure in place. For Wednesday into Thursday, a reinforcing boundary is expected to move through and keep the lower humidity and dry conditions around for the end of the week and on through next weekend. Temperatures will be near normal for mid May to start. However, by next weekend we will see readings climb a little with highs approaching 90 degrees in a few spots by the end of the extended period.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026

VFR conditions are currently present at all Central Alabama TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms are looking less likely at most of the TAF sites, except for TCL over the next couple of hours. Radar and hires guidance indicate convection deteriorating over the next few hours. Chances are low elsewhere. Low level moisture right behind the front may still result in some MVFR cigs for TCL and MGM, but confidence is not high enough elsewhere to mention. Otherwise, look for northerly winds 7-11kts to develop behind the front during the day today.

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FIRE WEATHER

Continued rain chances through today will help keep min RH values generally above 50%. Drier air returns for Tuesday in the wake of a cold front with min RH values falling to 35-45% for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. A dry cold front late Wednesday will knock min RHs down into the 30-35% range for Thursday and Friday. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 78 50 79 53 / 10 0 0 10 Anniston 78 52 79 56 / 10 0 0 10 Birmingham 79 55 81 59 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 80 56 82 57 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 81 55 82 57 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 81 60 79 60 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 82 59 81 59 / 20 10 0 0 Troy 83 60 82 60 / 20 10 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.