textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 117 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026

- Fall Weather: Cooler temperatures and rainfree conditions are expected through the week.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026

This evening a large ridge stretches across much of the CONUS from New England to the Great Lakes to Texas and the Deep South. A 1035 mb center is now over Ohio. Surface pressure gradients are beginning to relax as ridging settles across the region. Winds are responding to this change from yesterday and beginning to taper down tonight. Winds should start to become NE to E on Sunday and not quite as gusty in response to placement adjustments of the surface ridge. Cool fall readings are on tap with lows in the 40s for most of this week. We could even see an isolated low or two in the upper 30s in a few of the colder northern locales and valleys for Sunday and Monday nights. Highs will be generally in the 60s for Sunday with a few lower 70s. While overall Eastern Conus ridging continues this week, it does weaken a little. As such, our airmass should begin to moderate as we head through the upcoming week. Look for highs by Monday to be seasonal in the 70s, with lower 80s creeping back for some by Wednesday. However, we will remain rainfree with very little moisture available for cloud cover, much less rain.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026

VFR TAFs are expected for the 24 hour forecast period with a large area of surface high pressure in place across a large part of the CONUS centered from New England to Texas. Light winds through sunrise. Look for winds to turn to the NE-ENE during the day around 8-10 knots, with light winds after 00z.

Note: Fall seasonal issuance of the KASN Talladega TAF has begun as of 10/18 00Z and will continue through 10/28 18Z.

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FIRE WEATHER

A much drier air mass will build into the region Sunday behind a cold front and will persist through the upcoming week. Winds will not be quite as strong Sunday, with 20ft winds in the 6 to 12 mph range and gusts 12 to 17 mph. An abundance of dry air aloft will allow for thorough mixing, with MinRH values generally dropping to near 30% into the middle of next week. Given these low MinRH values and drying fuels, fire weather concerns will remain medium for most of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 41 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 69 41 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 69 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 72 44 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 69 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 67 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 70 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 68 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.