textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 629 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026

- Summer Pattern: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall likely under high moisture and slow-moving storms.

- Heat: Humidity will push heat indices into the 97-104 degree range this weekend into next week, resulting in a moderate heat risk across Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026

Central Alabama remains in a somewhat weak upper flow area south of the main broad trough that extends out of Central Canada and down into the Great Lakes. At the same time, Alabama is situated between two ridges, one across the Four Corners and the other in the Western Atlantic off of the FL Coast along with a weak, small shortwave from the main upper trough just to our NW. This will not make a big difference as it propagates EWD across the SE US as it remains weak. Our emphasis will still be typical summertime diurnally enhanced convection overall. By Monday, the Western Atlantic ridge flattens and retrogrades further westward across the Northern Gulf Coast. At the same time, it also shows the upper shortwave absorbed back into the longwave trough with continued summertime diurnally enhanced activity expected through the remainder of the week.

As for temperatures, readings vary only a degree or so here and there through mid week with overall moisture remaining up. This will result in max afternoon heat indices perhaps a couple of degrees higher in spots. However, guidance continues to keep us below heat advisory criteria for now. We will be watching as we head into the end of the week with a medium chance of the upper ridge building into and getting stronger across the SE US and temperatures warming further. This could inch us back closer to heat advisory criteria by Friday into next weekend.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026

With weak ridging to the east, winds will be east-southeast 4-7 knots with daytime mixing, though generally light and variable conditions will persist. Typical summertime diurnal convection is expected this afternoon. Greatest convective coverage is expected across northern sites, warranting continued PROB30 groups for TCL, BHM, and EET, with timing adjusted for delayed development. Increased probabilities for convective development moving into MGM and AUO after 21Z warrant the addition of PROB30 groups for these sites as well.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected daily. Because of this, elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 50 10 Anniston 91 72 90 73 / 40 20 50 10 Birmingham 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 50 10 Tuscaloosa 93 74 93 75 / 30 20 40 10 Calera 92 73 91 74 / 40 20 40 10 Auburn 89 74 89 75 / 30 20 40 10 Montgomery 94 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 10 Troy 92 72 93 73 / 30 20 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.