textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

- While wind speeds may fall just below critical thresholds, low relative humidity values and recent dryness will result in high fire danger today, especially across northern portions of Central Alabama.

- Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected today and each day this week with limited rain chances, causing worsening drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026

An unseasonably strong 590 decameter subtropical ridge will remain centered along the Florida Gulf Coast through Thursday, generally steering a series of shortwaves to the northwest of Central Alabama and resulting in near-record high temperatures each day. High pressure moves off the East Coast today, taking on more of a Bermuda high orientation with low-level flow becoming southerly across Central Alabama. This begins to result in a slight increase in dew points in southwest/west-central portions of Central Alabama, but they will remain low elsewhere. Lowest RH values will be across the southeast half of Central Alabama, while highest winds will be across northwestern and far northern portions of Central Alabama. 20ft wind gusts will generally be in the 15 to 17 mph range across our northern counties, just under the red flag criteria of 20 mph (25 mph at 10m ASOS level). Given the borderline conditions and a fire weather watch previously in effect, as well as very dry fuel conditions and a high risk in the Significant Fire Potential outlook, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning in a more targeted area where the best low RH/higher wind overlap will be. Regardless of where you are in Central Alabama, it is still not a good day to burn.

A weakening southern stream trough will pass to our northwest on Monday, bringing an increase in mid-level moisture and associated high clouds. This may knock a couple degrees off of high temperatures, and with a slight increase in dew points RH values should be above critical values but still low. Rain chances may be non-zero in our far northwest counties but still pretty close to zero. Warm and dry conditions continue Tuesday and Wednesday. The next shortwave Thursday does temporarily weaken the ridge but only low rain chances are expected across our northwest counties. Ridging build back in Friday and Saturday ahead of a deeper trough off to our west. These look to be the hottest days with low to medium chances of temperatures hitting 90F for the first time this year in some spots. There are some indications of a cold front moving through in the later part of next weekend, but weakening lift and modest moisture return suggest lower-end rain chances at this time.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

Aside from some early morning fog near TCL (which should burn off quickly this morning), VFR conditions are expected across the area through the next 24 hours.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

RH values drop into the 22-30% range this afternoon, with the lowest values in eastern portions of the state. Meanwhile 20ft wind gusts will be in the 15 to 17 mph range, highest in far northern and northwestern portions of Central Alabama. While conditions are borderline for a red flag warning, one has been issued for portions of the area which will see the greatest overlap between lower RH values and stronger winds, due to dry fuels and a high risk in the Significant Fire Potential outlook. Any fires could spread quickly due to the the dry conditions and steady afternoon winds that are forecast. RH values will generally be in the 25-35 percent range this coming week, with 20ft wind gusts around 10-15 mph and no widespread rainfall.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1102 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 12: KBHM: 87/1906 KEET: 85/2001 KANB: 87/1977 KTCL: 88/1992 KMGM: 88/1992

April 13: KEET: 87/2017 KTCL: 87/1972 KMGM: 88/1972

April 14: KEET: 85/2017 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972

April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KTCL: 88/1972

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 86 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 86 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 87 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 87 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 87 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 85 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 88 56 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 87 55 85 54 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay- Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson-Marion-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair- Talladega-Walker.