textproduct: NWS Birmingham

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 601 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the low to middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

Persistent upper-level ridging remains the main story for this forecast period, with the ridge centered over Tennessee. This pattern will effectively suppress rain chances through Friday, keeping afternoon PoPs under 10%. Under the influence of high pressure, high temperatures will hold in the low-to-upper 90s through the upcoming weekend. Although actual temperatures will be hot, lower dew points within this drier airmass should keep heat indices in the 101-104 range, remaining below advisory thresholds.

By the weekend, the upper-level pattern is expected to shift as an upper low tracks from the Atlantic into the Gulf around the periphery of the ridge. While model guidance shows uncertainty regarding the exact placement and intensity of this feature, any moisture returning to the Gulf should weaken the ridge and bring higher rain chances for the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026

Very little change in the forecast from the previous day. High pressure continues to be in place across much of the Southeastern CONUS leading to mostly clear skies and typical diurnal wind patterns. Therefore, we'll see VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with winds increasing today to 7-8kts out of the east becoming light and variable tonight.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by late next week if significant rainfall does not fall by then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 96 71 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 94 71 92 66 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 96 73 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 99 75 97 69 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 96 73 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 93 72 90 66 / 10 10 0 0 Montgomery 96 74 93 66 / 10 10 0 0 Troy 95 72 92 64 / 10 10 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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