textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026

- Shower activity will continue to push further southeast, only continuing to affect the far southeast counties through late afternoon.

- Expect low temperatures below freezing tonight through Sunday morning across much of the area.

- There is high potential for breezy winds overnight that will result in wind chill readings from the mid teens far northwest to the lower 20s southeast.

- There is medium to high potential for a warming trend to develop on Sunday and continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1030 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026

A positively-tilted longwave trough extended from over the Western Ohio Valley Region southwest to over the ArkLaTex region late this morning while highly amplified ridging was positioned over much of the Intermountain West. Weak surface low pressure was analyzed near Chattanooga, TN with the associated surface cold front extending southwest across the southeast portion of the forecast area towards New Orleans, LA. Expansive elongated surface high pressure extended from across much of the Great Lakes Region southwest into West Texas. Light to moderate rain showers were becoming increasingly confined to areas southeast of the Interstate 85 and east of the Interstate 65 corridors across our far southeast counties. Visibilities have improved over the past hour or so despite continued cold air advection into the area with low clouds persistent over the entire forecast area with brisk northwest winds from 10-20 mph at times.

Today.

The longwave trough will become more defined later today as it extends from over the Eastern Great Lakes southwest to over Coastal Texas. Meanwhile, the surface low to our northeast is progged to deepen later today as it approaches the Coastal Carolinas overnight. Expect mostly cloudy skies for the rest of today with shower activity initially across the southeast, decreasing from the northwest to the southeast through the afternoon hours. Highs today will range from the low 40s far northwest to readings in the upper 50s far southeast. The surface pressure gradient will increase this afternoon and evening, resulting in increasing northwest winds from 10-20 mph by late afternoon.

Tonight.

The longwave trough will move southeast over the area overnight while highly amplified ridging becomes centered over Northwest Utah. The forecast area will become positioned between deepening surface low pressure along the Gulf Stream off the Southeast Atlantic Coast and elongated surface high pressure stretching from across the Ohio River Valley southwest across much of Texas and northwest across much of the Intermountain West. The increased surface pressure gradient will support winds from 10-20 mph persisting through the overnight hours and with low temperatures from the lower 20s far north to near 30 far southeast will create wind chill readings from the mid teens far northwest to the lower 20s southeast. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to persist overnight.

Thursday.

A northwest flow aloft will build over the area during the day Thursday while the longwave trough moves southeast of the forecast are enduring the day. A weaker shortwave impulse will approach from the north later in the day that would only result in some increase in clouds across the north and northeast especially. Surface high pressure will move southeast over the area while drier air settles across the area. Skies will become partly cloudy by early afternoon with some thicker clouds north and northeast. High temperatures will range from near 40 far northwest to the upper 40s far southeast. Winds will remain from the northwest with speeds gradually relaxing into the 6-12 mph range by late afternoon.

Thursday Night.

The northwest flow pattern will persist aloft while the weaker shortwave impulse moves east of the area over North-Central Georgia. High-amplitude ridging will remain over much of the Intermountain West. Surface high pressure will become centered to the southwest of the area with time while retaining its low-level influence across the area. Expect mostly clear skies with low temperatures from the mid 20s far northeast to readings around 30 far southwest. Winds will become westerly at 2-4 mph.

Friday.

Amplified ridging will extend from over South Texas northwest to over Western Montana on Friday while troughing persists to the northeast of the area. Surface high pressure will consolidate over the Northwestern Gulf while west surface winds are forecast 5-10 mph. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs from the mid 50s in the higher elevations east to the mid 60s far southwest.

Friday night through Tuesday.

The overall synopsis involving broad ridging deamplifying to an extent as it moves east over the South-Central Plains through the weekend and approaches the forecast area by Tuesday next week. A reinforcing dry cold front will move into the area early on Saturday and move toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday before returning north as a diffuse warm front Monday night. Dry conditions are forecast areawide through this time frame. A warming trend looks to develop later in the day Sunday and continuing into early next work week.

05

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026

The surface cold front is moving southeast of the area with some lingering showers expected near and southeast of MGM and AUB. Otherwise, general IFR conditions due to low clouds will be slow to improve for the remainder of the day while low-level winds will remain from the northwest at 8-16 kts this afternoon. Expect gradual improvement in ceilings by Thursday morning with drier air arriving from the northwest.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Shower activity will become increasingly confined to the far southeast portion of the area through the afternoon hours while clouds will persist as brisk northwest winds develop areawide. There are no concerns today with Minimum RH values in the 60 to 70 percent range areawide but drier air arriving overnight will result in RH minimums dropping into the mid 30 to low 40 percent range Thursday afternoon and falling into the lower 40 percent range Friday afternoon, through winds will be lighter both of these days compared to this afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through Tuesday early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 50 24 44 24 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 51 25 44 27 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 49 26 44 29 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 48 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 51 25 46 28 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 55 29 47 29 / 80 0 0 0 Montgomery 57 30 47 29 / 70 0 0 0 Troy 58 31 48 28 / 90 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.