textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026

- Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected daily, with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall possible in the strongest storms.

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk through the week, transitioning to a major heat risk this weekend with heat indices potentially reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals an upper level low lifting across Northern Mississippi into West Tennessee. At the surface, a lingering frontal boundary can be analyzed draped across the Southeast back towards the Southern Plains. Once again we started off the day with light rain/drizzle across the region. We will see an uptick in activity during the late morning and afternoon hours as we destabilize. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected once again with activity waning during the evening hours. Any storm that develops will be capable of producing gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

The upper low will continue to lift off to the northwest as ridging builds in for Thursday and Friday. This will lead to a more typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. With that said, several H85-H7 impulses rotating around the mid-level ridge will lead to increased rain chances at times, generally across our northwestern areas. Guidance is now hinting at an inverted trough/upper low developing across the northeastern Gulf late this week into the weekend. This will likely lead to a brief uptick in rain chances by Sunday before drier air pushes into the region as this feature drifts off to the east.

Temperatures will continue to warm through the week with highs rebounding back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the work week. As a result, we will see a minor to moderate heat risk for most of Central Alabama daily. Over the weekend, we add on a few degrees with highs into the mid 90s for some. This will lead to heat indices up to 105 degrees and a major heat risk for most of the area.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026

VFR ceilings were slow to return with most sites just now lifting out of VFR. With that said, BHM remains MVFR but should lift shortly. Showers are beginning to increase in coverage across the region. Continued with the PROB30 groups for BHM/EET/TCL and introduced a PROB30 at AUO/MGM to account for afternoon convection. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Activity should diminish after sunset. Low level stratus is likely tomorrow morning for the northern 3 terminals. Opted to transition to a TEMPO group for MVFR based on the latest HREF probabilities. Winds through this TAF cycling will generally be from the west-southwest around 5-10 knots.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Moist conditions will persist through mid-week, keeping MinRH values well above critical thresholds. Widespread rainfall is anticipated as a weak system remains over the region, precluding any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 88 71 90 / 20 40 10 50 Anniston 71 88 72 89 / 20 30 10 50 Birmingham 72 89 73 91 / 20 20 10 50 Tuscaloosa 71 90 73 92 / 20 10 10 20 Calera 71 91 72 93 / 30 10 10 50 Auburn 72 88 73 90 / 20 20 10 50 Montgomery 71 91 73 92 / 10 10 10 30 Troy 70 90 72 91 / 10 10 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.