textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Saturday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Saturday.

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into next week. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances today will remain on the disorganized side, given a lack of upper-level support. In turn, thunderstorm chances today will continue to be dictated by peak afternoon heating and outflow boundaries. By tomorrow however, a trough will begin to organize over the Midwest/Great Lakes region dropping south as the day progresses. Given the better flow aloft associated with this trough and a remnant MCV, rain chances appear to be more organized during the afternoon hours on Sunday. The trough should linger across the region into Monday, allowing for slightly more organized rain chances here as well, before finally moving off the east coast.

Rain chances by the middle of the new workweek should more resemble the usual diurnally driven afternoon convection that we're used to seeing in the summer. Closer to the weekend however, it looks like another weak trough could start to skirt the region, creating more organized rain chances once more. Even though confidence here is low, rain chances will remain regardless, just much less organized. Due to these aforementioned rain chances, afternoon highs will drop a few degrees as well, settling into the low to mid-90s for much of the workweek. Given these lower temperatures and increased cloud cover, heat index values will drop as well, allowing us to drop below any kind of Heat Advisory criteria.

/44/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

Very few thunderstorms have been able to develop across the region this afternoon, so have left mention of TSRA out of the TAFS for the remainder of tonight. With the high pressure in place, expect VFR conditions with generally light to calm winds through the period. Some guidance has tried to pick up on a few thunderstorms over EET and BHM around 04-05z this evening, but confidence isn't high right now to put that into the TAFs. Beyond that, expect higher coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening as a weak upper shortwave moves through. I have included prob30s for TSRA from 21z - 00z tomorrow.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into next week, with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 93 73 91 / 20 50 30 60 Anniston 73 92 73 91 / 20 50 30 60 Birmingham 75 93 74 91 / 20 50 30 60 Tuscaloosa 75 92 75 91 / 20 50 30 50 Calera 74 95 74 93 / 20 50 30 60 Auburn 75 92 74 90 / 10 40 20 50 Montgomery 76 93 74 92 / 10 40 20 50 Troy 75 93 73 91 / 10 30 20 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.