textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026

- A cold front will bring limited rain, generally less than a three quarters of an inch, Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon, providing minimal relief for the ongoing drought.

- Critically dry fuels, strong winds, and low Minimum Relative Humidity behind the front will keep fire weather conditions elevated through next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026

A positively-tilted longwave trough will be moving across the interior United States and southern Canada over the next couple days. An associated surface low will move northeast out of Minnesota this afternoon, well northeast into Ontario by tomorrow morning. A surface cold front will extend far southwestward into South Texas, pushing eastward from this evening through tomorrow night. For Central Alabama, this afternoon is expected to be among the warmest of the year so far, upper 80s and pushing 90 in a few locations. Cloud cover building in by tomorrow morning will hold tomorrow's highs in the mid 80s. As the cold front approaches Alabama from the west, rain chances will begin to increase dramatically during the late afternoon and evening hours. With little synoptic support, severe weather is not currently anticipated. However, sufficient instability exists to foster thunderstorm development within the line as it passes through western Central Alabama. CAMs from 12z this morning indicate this line may become outflow dominant as it moves eastward through the Central Alabama region. Depending on the upstream evolution in Mississippi, there is the chance for the outflow to bring a brief period of gusty winds as it pushes ahead of the rain/storms, especially west of the I-59 corridor. Rain looks to begin around 6 or 7 PM Saturday across western/northwestern areas, including Tuscaloosa, before sliding eastward and gradually losing steam during the overnight. Areas of northwest Central Alabama may see as much as 0.75-1" of rainfall, while the more drought-stricken areas of southeast Central Alabama will see 0.25" or less.

Sunday will be noticeably cooler across the region, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will rebound by Monday, however, again bringing increased fire weather concerns as surface high pressure builds in behind the front. Minimum RH will settle into the mid to low 20s each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. Winds are currently anticipated to stay below Red Flag criteria. The next chance of rain will come late week into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with scattered clouds this afternoon and light southwesterly winds through tonight. Winds and cloud cover will increase by tomorrow morning in advance of a cold front. Low probability for fog early tomorrow morning at MGM, but left out of TAF due to low confidence.

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FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026

Fire weather conditions will remain elevated into Saturday, with fuels remaining critically dry. Rain chances will increase Saturday evening into Sunday, but it won't be the drought busting rain that we desperately need. Winds will be strong over the weekend as well, as a cold front moves through the region, before decreasing into Monday and Tuesday. Low MinRH values in the mid to low 20s are forecast Monday through at least Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 86 45 68 / 0 50 90 10 Anniston 60 85 49 68 / 0 30 90 20 Birmingham 63 86 49 68 / 0 50 90 10 Tuscaloosa 60 85 49 71 / 0 50 90 10 Calera 60 86 49 70 / 0 30 90 20 Auburn 62 85 54 68 / 0 10 70 20 Montgomery 60 87 53 71 / 0 10 80 20 Troy 58 86 54 70 / 0 0 40 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.