textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 503 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026

- Dry conditions will persist through early on Tuesday, followed by low to medium (30-60%) chances for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday and again on Friday into the weekend.

- Medium to high (60-80%) rain chances will be possible over the weekend. There is a low probability at this time for thunderstorms, at least for the southern half of the area.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1100 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026

A broad ridge sets up through Tuesday. Daytime highs will trend upwards into the 70s for both days. With a southwesterly flow the highs may exceed guidance by 2 to 3 degrees so trended warmer through Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary is expected to push southward Tuesday evening into Wednesday, with the best chances of rain in the north. The boundary stalls across the region Thursday and later becomes and effective warm front Friday into Saturday as our next trough approaches the region. Depending on the exact track of a surface low over the weekend, there is a potential for stronger storms if the low goes further north. Will need to keep an eye on this trend over the next few days. There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing and depth of the trough. For now, look for medium to high rain chances through the weekend with scattered thunderstorms.

16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. Low level moisture increases towards the end of this TAF window so have introduced a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs after 09Z Tuesday. Otherwise, winds will be light, generally 5-10 knots out of the south-southwest.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture begins to build back into the region today with MinRHs returning to upper 30s to 40s this afternoon, then roughly 50% or above through Wednesday. Rain-free conditions will persist through midweek before another frontal boundary pushes into the region bringing 40-60% chance for rain. Another round of showers and storms will be possible Friday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 45 73 53 / 0 0 0 50 Anniston 70 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 40 Birmingham 71 50 72 55 / 0 0 0 50 Tuscaloosa 72 49 73 53 / 10 0 0 40 Calera 72 48 73 53 / 10 0 0 40 Auburn 70 49 72 55 / 0 0 0 30 Montgomery 73 48 75 57 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 73 48 74 57 / 0 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.