textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 625 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday.

- Low chance for severe weather Monday night, followed by a more organized severe weather threat Tuesday and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026

A weak ridge will move east as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. There is a low chance for scattered convection on Monday afternoon, with the greatest chances in the northwest where instability is strongest. A mid level jet will approach the western counties through the morning on Monday, with gusting winds expected across the state through the afternoon and evening. Gusts 20-25 mph are possible in the northwest, closer to the jet, with gusts slightly lower in the southeast.

Monday night and Tuesday morning, a front will move through the TN River Valley, moving into the northwestern counties after midnight. Models have been trending slightly later, with the early morning timing. Either way, instability is weak, but decent enough that combined with the shear, could produce strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail the main threat. Most of this activity will form west of the area and move into the state. The front will move south through the day on Tuesday, with this boundary providing enough lift for additional development through the afternoon and early evening. With southerly low and mid level flow, there should be enough warm air and moisture for strong storms to develop. Instability will be somewhere in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, with damaging winds the main threat.

By Tuesday night, a shortwave will bring additional forcing for more storms, mainly to the northwestern half of the state. Shear will be high, and enough instability will again cause storms to become strong to severe. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though with the shear present, wouldn't be able to count out any tornadic development. Models are slightly inconsistent with timing, with a late evening/early night timing through early morning and before sunrise. The greatest chance for any severe storms will again be in the northwest, closer to the shortwave and any forcing.

The boundary across the state will continue south slowly through the day on Wednesday. Models are trying to show additional storm development Wednesday afternoon. Though there is some shear present, the instability is slightly weaker. Would expect scattered storms with a few becoming strong.

By Thursday, the boundary should be south of the area with the greatest concentration of convection to the south and east. The next system appears to be a weak trough moving across the MS River Valley towards the TN River Valley, and a shortwave moving around that trough bringing increased rain chances Friday night into Saturday.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026

MVFR ceilings will work into AUO and ASN this morning before lifting by midday. MGM may continue to see intermittent lowered vis through 13z as well. Winds will gust from the southeast as high as 18-20 kts ahead of a front approaching from the north. Winds will lessen somewhat overnight as rainfall approaches the area. Introduced SHRA at TCL, EET, BHM, and ASN after 9z as confidence is high enough at this time to include.

AMD NOT SKED at KTCL due to intermittent comms issues.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Due to increasing moisture and rain chances into Monday, confidence is medium in MinRH values remaining above 50% through Wednesday. MinRH values will drop again on Thursday behind a passing cold front, before increasing once more by next weekend. Thankfully, organized rain chances will remain in the forecast through Thursday as well, before drying out into the weekend. Even with ongoing rain chances, fire weather concerns will remain elevated due to the widespread drought conditions and critically dry fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 83 59 83 61 / 0 50 70 90 Anniston 82 60 82 63 / 0 40 60 90 Birmingham 84 64 83 64 / 10 50 70 90 Tuscaloosa 87 65 85 65 / 10 50 70 80 Calera 86 63 85 64 / 10 40 60 80 Auburn 81 60 83 65 / 0 10 20 70 Montgomery 87 63 87 65 / 0 10 20 60 Troy 86 61 87 63 / 0 0 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.