textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 442 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026

- Temperatures this week will be warmer than typical for early March with highs and lows as much as 15-20 degrees above normal.

- Periodic opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms return from Thursday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026

Satellite is indicating the greatest moisture and cloud cover to our N across TN, N MS and into N AL where a mid level impulse is moving EWD through the almost zonal flow (WNW). There are showers associated with this area. Although there is a low chance that a shower or two could scrape our far NRN row of C AL counties, the bulk of the rain should stay to our N. The main impact from this impulse will be mid level and cirrus clouds drifting into the area overnight into Monday. This will also help temperatures remain a tad milder tonight. Otherwise, C AL should stay rainfree through the short term through Wed. A large surface ridge will traverse EWD out of the Great Lakes and across New England through Mon and then push EWD into the Atlantic. This will result in our flow turning to SEWD into AL on Mon. Returning onshore SE flow will allow warm low level moisture to increase slowly for the first half of the week.

In the upper levels, we will continue with WSW/to a somewhat zonal flow for the first couple of days of the week. A shortwave will move EWD off the lee of the Rockies Tue into Wed and across the Central Plains. As it does so on Wed, our upper flow into AL will become SW. By Thu, the better energy will be closer to the main shortwave over IA/MO/IL, but we should have enough moisture to have a low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with ripples through the SW flow for portions of C AL Thu/Fri. This as well as perturbations from around a larger deepening low over the SW US into the Deep South will keep pops off/on into next weekend. Deeper moisture will be increasing toward the weekend, with rain chances responding upward accordingly. However, with no significant frontal passage or introduction of a cold airmass, temperatures will remain above normal with some high temp records in jeopardy.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1120 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026

A mid-level impulse, and associated pattern of isentropic lift, will produce precipitation over parts of the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley overnight into Monday. There is a low chance that the southern edge of this activity clips North Alabama. For our area/Central Alabama, tame weather continues through midweek with seasonably warm temperatures for all and a trend toward variable clouds for some.

Varied chances for showers and thunderstorms include Central Alabama later this week. For Thursday and Friday, the focus for the bulk of activity will be to our north and northwest due to ridging centered just off the Southeast U.S.; however, isolated activity may occur locally. For the weekend, ensemble data show different scenarios, in part dependent on the evolution of the Southeast U.S ridge, in terms of how far east a Central U.S. front gets and whether its precipitation shield is maintained or becomes degraded. The current forecast includes an increase in shower/thunderstorm chances as ensemble means bring the front close to the area. Above-normal temperatures continue late this week, with forecast highs near records. See the climate section below.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026

VFR condtions are expected for the next 24 hours with south to southeast winds up to 8 knots.

87/Grantham

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

Seasonably warm weather is expected through this week. MinRHs will be lowest for this Monday afternoon, as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s. Thereafter, increased dew points are forecast, keeping daily MinRHs well above critical thresholds, in the 40s/50s. Winds will become south to southeast starting Monday through the rest of the week at 5-10 mph during the day, light and variable at night. Low rain chances return to the forecast on Thursday, but more significant wetting rain chances hold off until Saturday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1045 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026

March 4: KBHM: 84/1976 KEET: 84/2022 KTCL: 83/1976 KMGM: 85/2022

March 5: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 83/2022 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 85/1989

March 6: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 81/2023 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 86/2022

March 7: KBHM: 84/1956 KEET: 83/2023 KTCL: 85/2023 KMGM: 87/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 75 52 75 52 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 76 53 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 77 55 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 79 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 78 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 76 55 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 78 54 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 78 54 77 54 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.