textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 645 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026

- An enhanced risk (levels 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect through early Thursday. Threats include isolated, brief tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

- There is a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of flash flooding with the thunderstorm activity through Thursday morning, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026

A cold front will continue to move into the area through the rest of the night into Thursday morning. Timing is generally around 1 pm in the far northwest, with a slow progression of the line of storms towards the south and southeast. CAMs have been coming into better agreement with timing, and show isolated storms moving ahead of the main line. Instability is between 1500- 2500 J/kg with these initial storms, and 0-1 km shear is mild, though 0-6 km shear is enough to support strong storms. These isolated storms could easily rotate and produce damaging winds and a tornado, though the threat may be slightly lower than the storms through the late afternoon and early evening.

With strong southerly flow, PW values will be around 2 inches or higher today through the morning. This is much greater than max for this time of year climatologically, and with the steering flow parallel to the boundary, storms are likely to train over the same areas, producing high rain rates and high rainfall accumulations. The highest totals look to be in the southeast where the greatest concentration of training storms is expected. Values of 4-5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts in any stronger storms. Any storm will likely produce rain rates enough to reduce visibilities so driving could become hazardous. Flooding is a concern through the night, especially in those training storms.

As the line moves south and east, individual storms are expected to move along that line. Low LCLs, enough instability, and an increase in 0-1 km shear to 40-50 kts will support an increased tornado threat. Mid level winds increase from a strong mid level jet, which causes that increase in low level shear, and will also support stronger updraft and longer lived storms. CAMs have that line moving into the I85 area after midnight, with a concentration of weather in the southeast through the early morning. Instability is slightly weaker in the southeast, values topping around 1000-1500 j/kg, but shear will remain strong, with damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat continuing.

Thursday morning, the front will continue to the south and east, and should push all activity south of the area by sunrise. Northerly flow will settle over the area, bringing drier and slightly cooler air, as high pressure continues to build over the southeast. By Friday evening, a shortwave approaches from the south and west, bringing the next chance for rain through the night Friday into Saturday. A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley through the latter half of the weekend, with a frontal boundary bringing widespread activity through Sunday. Instability will be higher on Sunday, and shear will be moderate, allowing for strong atoms to develop, though potential for any severe storms remains low at this time.

The front will push south and east through night, with rain decreasing through Monday morning, and northwest flow bringing drier air to the state through the beginning of the work week.

24

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026

Scattered to numerous storms will continue across the area through Midnight. The activity remains strong to severe across the south (MGM and AUO). Storms in the north, associated with the main frontal zone, remain on the weaker side with pockets of heavy rain and a few strikes. Confidence remains high that MGM and AUO will see the biggest impacts through the first 6 to 9 hours. Rain and MVFR to IFR clouds will build in behind the storms line of storms. Any storm moving over a TAF site will produce high rain rates to drop visibilities to IFR or LIFR, and enough low level moisture will be available for IFR ceilings overnight. Thunderstorms should move south with rain lingering over each TAF site through the early morning, before northerly flow brings dry air and a decrease in rain through mid morning Thursday.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring plenty of rain through the state tonight and Thursday morning. In total, some locations are likely to see 2-4 inches of rain during this timeframe, with 4-5 inches possible in the southeast. After a brief break in rain Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon, rain returns through the weekend. Given the higher MinRH values and upcoming rain, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 72 45 73 / 100 20 0 0 Anniston 60 72 48 73 / 100 40 0 0 Birmingham 60 72 51 74 / 100 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 60 75 51 75 / 100 10 0 0 Calera 61 75 51 75 / 100 30 0 0 Auburn 67 77 55 73 / 100 80 0 10 Montgomery 67 77 54 74 / 100 70 0 20 Troy 68 78 56 74 / 80 90 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.