textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026 - Above normal temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 920 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026

High pressure builds across the Southeastern CONUS Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to a gradual warming trend as we go into the middle part of the week. The ridging begins to flatten Wednesday into Thursday as a trough and associated low pressure system move across the High Plains into the Great Lakes region. The cold front with this system will push southward and eventually stall across the Mid-MS and Ohio Valleys during this timeframe. We could see some lower rain chances Wednesday into Thursday as the persistent southerly flow advects moisture into the region and we see some isentropic lift. For now, those rain chances appear to be low (20- 30%). As we approach the end of the week, this system is expected to finally move through the area, leading to increased rain chances Friday through Sunday. However, there's quite a bit of variability in the timing with some indications it could move further south into Central AL Friday and stalls out again, leading to continued high rain chances through the weekend. Other guidance keeps it stalled to our north before pushing it through the area Saturday, which makes the window for higher rain chances much narrower. Will keep mention of medium to high rain chances 40-60% Friday, then 40-50% through the weekend for now. Given the wide variability in solutions for where the frontal boundary sets up, the temperature forecast is equally as uncertain. The temperatures for Friday through Sunday will likely change as we get a better handle on the timing of the front.

Behind this system, whether that's Sunday or Monday at this point, the air mass looks to be much colder, bringing temperatures back to more typical February diurnal ranges.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026

Expect low clouds to persist through much of the overnight hours, followed by improving conditions through the morning hours on Monday with decreasing clouds and a return to VFR conditions areawide. Low-level winds will decrease overnight but ream from the north at 4-8 kts. Expect low-level winds from the northeast monday from 3-6 kts.

05

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure builds in across the region for the first part of this week with little chance for wetting rains until the end of the week. With southerly flow anticipated to persist, we should see MinRHs remaining in the 40-50+% range even with the warming trend in daytime high temperatures.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 42 68 41 70 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 44 69 43 71 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 46 69 46 70 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 46 69 45 72 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 45 70 43 72 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 49 68 45 70 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 50 69 44 72 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 51 69 46 72 / 20 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.