textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026

The overall forecast the next seven days will likely be highly variable, as most of the forecast will be dictated by a series of surface low pressure's moving off the Rockies. A slight upper- level ridge will build in across the region today, allowing for above average temperatures to continue through Tuesday. This ridge will break down into Wednesday, allowing for conditions to warm up even more under SW flow aloft. Highs on Wednesday will be pushing the mid-70s, with highs on Thursday reaching the low-80s for many locations.

Beginning here, the first of multiple surface lows will work into the Great Plains off the Rocky Mountains, likely taking shape somewhere near NE/SD/MN. This surface low will also be dragging a cold front along with it, with temperature chances expected all the way down to central Texas. However, this low pressure is not all that deep, and lacks a lot of upper-level support. So this first surface low is likely to wash out somewhere over the Great Lakes, stalling the eastward progression of the cold front. Where this cold front stalls is to be determined; this time yesterday it looked to stall over the Mississippi River basin, but today it's farther east. A more western stall would result in more scattered rain chances, where an eastern stall would result in more organized rain chances locally into the weekend.

This front will likely start to become more diffuse, retrograding slightly during the day on Thursday. Here is where the second low pressure begins to move east off of the central Rockies. This low pressure does look to deepen, and given its trajectory closer to Colorado, it should end up pushing this cold front through the region on Saturday. From here, temperatures are likely to drop back down to a much more seasonal feel, if not slightly below average into next week.

/44/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will continue to run between 40-50%, with widespread rain chances not expected until the weekend. Expect general conditions to remain at a "steady state" this week, with fire weather concerns remaining little to none through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 40 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 43 70 52 72 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 47 69 55 73 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 46 72 55 75 / 0 0 10 10 Calera 43 72 53 75 / 0 0 10 10 Auburn 46 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 43 72 53 76 / 0 0 10 20 Troy 45 72 52 74 / 0 0 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.