textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Friday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Saturday.

- Thunderstorms: Portions of the region are under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

Strong to severe storms are expected again today, with the SPC maintaining the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) in many of our northern counties. Today's coverage doesn't appear to be as widespread as yesterday, but conditions are still primed for microburst activity and damaging winds. Thankfully, the high- pressure that's been driving these stronger storms continues to decay, with flow aloft becoming much more disorganized by this time on Saturday. While the severe weather threat and organized storm activity will decrease through the weekend, we'll essentially be trading it out for the usual scattered, diurnally driven convection that we're normally used to seeing this time of the year. This type of afternoon activity is expected for most of the upcoming week.

On the heat side of things, the existing Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 9 PM Friday, with high humidity leading to heat index values over 105. Temperatures and heat index values will drop slightly into July 4th proper, falling below our local criteria. However, given the high heat the last few days, and how many outdoor activities occur on Independence Day, we've opted to issue a new, area-wide Heat Advisory, in effect from 7 AM Saturday through 9 PM. Heat will continue to be a talking point for most of next week as well, with afternoon highs staying steady in the low to mid-90s. With that being said, the need for additional heat headlines beyond Saturday currently remains to be seen.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

Scattered storms are expected again this afternoon, but confidence here is much lower than this time yesterday. As such, TCL, BHM, and EET will be the only terminals carrying PROB30's for TSRA today. Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible again overnight for any terminals that do see rainfall, but confidence here is not high enough to introduce that activity in any FM groups. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF period.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected through the weekend, with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 75 95 74 96 / 30 40 20 20 Anniston 75 94 74 95 / 20 40 10 30 Birmingham 77 95 76 96 / 20 30 20 30 Tuscaloosa 77 95 75 95 / 20 30 10 30 Calera 76 98 75 98 / 20 30 10 30 Auburn 76 94 75 94 / 10 20 0 20 Montgomery 75 95 75 95 / 10 10 10 20 Troy 73 95 74 95 / 10 10 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.