textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

- Thunderstorms: Strong to severe storms are possible through the weekend. These storms will be capable of producing localized gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Over the next 24-hours, a weak surface front will get pushed into the region, influenced by a stout trough to the north. By tomorrow evening, this front will become much more diffuse, as it quickly starts to outrun the better forcing associated with the upper-level trough. This will result in rain chances on Saturday being mostly in the vicinity of this boundary, given the better forcing to be had. Given the ample instability over the region through the weekend, a few strong to severe storms will be possible during this timeframe as well. Portions of the region are highlighted in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) from the SPC for today and Sunday, with damaging winds being the primary severe weather threat. As the boundary continues to drop south, it will become even more diffuse than it already is, likely becoming completely unrecognizable by late Sunday evening.

During this same time however, a weak low pressure looks to develop on the southernmost tip of the trough, quickly becoming closed off from the best upper level support by Sunday afternoon. This closed low pressure will slowly meander to the SE, stalling somewhere along the Tennessee River Valley by Monday morning. This low will be the catalyst for multiple rounds of heavier showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday, as it slowly ebbs and flows across the region during this 48-hour time period. By Wednesday however, it appears as if the closed low gets pushed off to the west, with the upper-level flow getting taken over by a high-pressure building off of the east coast. Because of this ridge, rain chances into next weekend will likely resemble the more usual diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity seen in mid-July. However, afternoon high temperatures will begin to climb during this time as well, with afternoon highs expected to climb back into the low to mid-90s by next Saturday.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with exception in the afternoon Saturday with any convection that develops through the day. Models have done a poor job at showing the coverage and timing of diurnal storms the past several days, usually underperforming in regards to the extent of storm development. This, combined with a low pressure moving into the southeast and bringing more activity, has led to the decision to err on the side of caution and include at least a PROB30 at each TAF site for thunderstorms. Most activity should weaken after sunset, though with that low moving closer, a line of storms may move into northern AL during the early night Saturday night. Have left mention of this line out of KBHM for now, with the main timing expected after 06Z Sunday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

The warm and moist air mass remains in place through the weekend with generally light to calm winds. Widespread rain and thunderstorms is expected Sunday into Monday as a weak system moves into the region and stalls through early next week. No fire weather concerns expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 72 88 69 / 40 60 90 70 Anniston 91 73 88 70 / 40 40 90 70 Birmingham 94 74 89 72 / 30 40 80 70 Tuscaloosa 94 75 89 72 / 20 30 80 60 Calera 96 74 91 71 / 30 20 90 70 Auburn 92 75 90 72 / 20 10 80 70 Montgomery 95 75 92 72 / 10 10 90 70 Troy 95 75 92 71 / 10 10 80 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.