textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

- Heat & Humidity: A significant warming trend begins late this week; heat indices are expected to approach or exceed 95-100 degrees daily for many locations from Friday through early next week.

- Thunderstorm Threat: A complex of storms or a decaying MCS may reach southwestern portions of Central Alabama tomorrow afternoon, with localized strong wind gusts possible. Confidence is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

Current surface obs indicate the frontal boundary is stalled to our south along the Gulf Coast. Dewpoints range from the mid 60s north to lower 70s south, and humidity is slightly lower today than it has been recently. Broad ridging over the Desert Southwest and persistent cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and Midwest regions will influence northwesterly flow across Central Alabama. An embedded shortwave trough will spark convection from Oklahoma through Arkansas tonight. This forcing will shift eastward by tomorrow and additional thunderstorm activity is expected to progress into Mississippi tomorrow morning. PoPs were raised given the medium confidence in the arrival of a decaying MCS or additional thunderstorm development in southwestern portions of our area tomorrow afternoon. This activity is expected to diminish as it moves eastward into the evening hours, potentially producing some strong wind gusts. Thereafter, the forecast trends drier and warmer as the Bermuda High begins to build westward where it will become centered over the Gulf Coast by this weekend. This will result in a warming trend with heat indices approaching the triple digits nearly each day from Friday into early next week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

The low-level cumulus deck is slowly mixing apart this afternoon with daytime heating. Ceilings continue to rise, and all sites should reach VFR criteria over the next few hours. VFR will then continue through the end of this period. There will be some high- level clouds tonight associated with convective blow off from storms over the Plains, but no impact to aviation criteria.

Note: METARs from AUO are available but missing data; therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Medium to high rain chances return tomorrow. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time, but the forecast will trend warmer and drier by the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 60 85 66 88 / 0 10 20 20 Anniston 61 85 67 88 / 0 0 20 20 Birmingham 63 86 69 88 / 0 20 30 30 Tuscaloosa 65 86 70 89 / 0 50 50 40 Calera 63 89 68 90 / 0 30 40 30 Auburn 65 87 69 87 / 0 0 20 20 Montgomery 65 87 69 88 / 0 30 40 30 Troy 64 88 68 88 / 0 10 40 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.