textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026

- Severe Weather: A Level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains across Central Alabama through tonight. The main threats are localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

- Cooler, Drier Early Fall Pattern: Rain chances gradually taper off on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. A noticeably cooler and drier airmass settles across Central AL for Thursday through the weekend, bringing daytime highs in the lower-to-middle 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026

A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms remains in effect across Central Alabama through this upcoming evening as a pronounced upper-level shortwave trough moves northeastward toward the Great Lakes, driving an accompanying surface cold front into the region from the northwest. The primary severe weather concern will be localized damaging downburst winds capable of knocking down tree limbs, along with periods of torrential rainfall that could cause temporary low- lying street flooding in heavier cells.

As the cold front slowly slides through the area into Wednesday, shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast, clearing the way for a notable pattern shift just in time for the autumnal equinox. A cooler, drier continental airmass will settle into the Southeast behind the front, keeping daytime highs in the lower-to-middle 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 50s across northern portions of the area, with lower-to- middle 60s persisting further south. This dry, highly seasonable, and early fall regime will persist right through the upcoming weekend, offering calm conditions and clear to partly cloudy skies across all of Central Alabama.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again today, with all terminals except TCL carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA through 22/24z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF period.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the middle of this week, with light winds outside of convection. Look for drying toward the end of the week, with very minimal to no rain chances Thursday and on into the weekend. MinRHs will dip into the 35-45% range in the afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 67 89 64 / 50 30 40 20 Anniston 91 68 88 66 / 50 30 40 30 Birmingham 93 69 90 67 / 40 20 20 10 Tuscaloosa 95 69 93 67 / 30 20 10 0 Calera 94 69 91 67 / 30 20 20 10 Auburn 91 69 89 67 / 40 30 30 20 Montgomery 93 71 92 70 / 30 20 10 10 Troy 93 69 92 68 / 20 20 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.