textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

- Pattern Change Next Week: A very large and pronounced ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the center of the U.S. by next week. As a result, confidence is increasing for above- average temperatures by the end of the long-term forecast period.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Just after midday, scattered showers and storms have formed primarily over western and northwestern counties, driven by a remnant MCV and an eastward-moving outflow boundary from Mississippi. Additionally, a weak mid-level closed low over the Missouri bootheel continues to offer synoptic lift. Consequently, scattered to numerous showers and storms are projected to develop across the CWA through the afternoon, with the best coverage across western and northwestern counties. Typical summertime hazards can be expected with these storms, including frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph. Conditions will remain hot and humid as afternoon highs reach the low to mid-90s, pushing heat indices to 100 degrees or slightly above.

Over the next few days, the closed low is forecast to slowly drift northeastward and weaken into an open wave, though lingering 500mb lift will stretch southward into the Tennessee Valley. This will maintain afternoon chances for scattered showers and storms through Thursday. Flow at 500mb turns temporarily zonal for Friday and Saturday before a larger CONUS pattern shift takes shape by Sunday. An anomalous 500mb ridge is advertised to greatly expand across much of the country by Monday, spanning from the Four Corners region to the Great Plains and Great Lakes. While the Deep South sits on the southeastern periphery of the ridge, a rare July surface front will slide southward into the area by Sunday. This front, combined with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development on both Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to global guidance variations regarding the depth and scale of the 500mb CONUS ridge. Nevertheless, confidence is building for above-average temperatures across the Deep South toward the end of next week, though daily convective coverage appears more uncertain at this time.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Scattered SHRA/TSRA development will continue near BHM, EET, and TCL through the afternoon. PROB30 will remain in the forecast due to the scattered nature of the convection, but amendments may be needed through 00z to add a TEMPO for TSRA at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light westerly winds will prevail during the afternoon hours this afternoon and on Wednesday, with calm or variable winds overnight tonight.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 20 40 30 60 Anniston 72 91 73 90 / 20 40 20 50 Birmingham 73 92 74 92 / 20 40 20 40 Tuscaloosa 73 91 73 92 / 30 40 20 40 Calera 73 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 40 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 30 Montgomery 74 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 30 Troy 73 93 74 92 / 20 30 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.