textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon to evening hours today and Monday. A break in rainy weather is forecast mid to late this week.

- There is a risk for a cluster of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts to impact parts of central Alabama Monday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

Reduced visibility will occur in areas through early this morning due to fog and low clouds in areas of higher terrain.

Surface high pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic will nudge a backdoor front across the Carolinas and north Georgia through today, setting up an axis of low-level convergence near and east of the 65 by midday. This axis will be a favored area for scattered showers and thunderstorms with activity elsewhere aided by daytime heating and a passing mid-level wave.

On Monday, a risk for severe thunderstorms exists. Due to a trough over the northeast U.S. and amplification of a ridge over Texas, mid-level flow is shown to become northwesterly with some intensification, generating bulk shear as high as 40 knots. High temperatures near 90 and dew points in the low 70s will yield a wide swath of strong to perhaps locally extreme instability (2,500-4,000 J/kg of CAPE). A batch of thunderstorms is modeled to move southeastward from MO/IL early in the day. Either intensification of this feature or newly budding thunderstorms associated with the advancing mid-level wave is likely to result in a MCS (complex of thunderstorms). The subsequent track and timing of the MCS isn't definitive just yet; however, HREF guidance shows a reasonable scenario involving isolated thunderstorm development anywhere across central Alabama during the afternoon, followed by a MCS arriving from the north and affecting parts of central Alabama sometime mid-afternoon to evening. Given the storm environment detailed earlier, and steepening of low-level lapse rates per forecast soundings, damaging wind gusts will be of concern. The extent of this threat for our area will depend on the track of the MCS and, if it does hit us, how organized it is (cold pool strength, orientation, etc.). This is something to watch. As we get a tad closer, we should begin to get a better idea of the most likely track of the MCS.

Deep-layer ridging/high pressure will build across the region mid to late this week, which will also bring with it much drier air aloft. As such, the forecast doesn't include any shower/thunderstorm chances from Wednesday to Friday with low chances heading into the weekend as high pressure persists but vertical moisture content increases.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026

A mid-level trough and high moisture content will continue to produce diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms with overnight to early morning low clouds and patchy fog. A mix of VFR-MVFR categories this evening will become IFR overnight for several terminals, lasting through ~15z Sunday. Patchy fog is also expected during this time. Categories return to mainly VFR by 18z Sunday though impacts/reduced categories due to showers and thunderstorms could occur at any time during the afternoon.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the week ahead. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Monday. Rain- free weather is likely mid to late week with low chances returning over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 64 86 65 / 70 30 30 30 Anniston 81 66 85 66 / 70 30 30 30 Birmingham 84 67 87 68 / 80 30 40 50 Tuscaloosa 88 70 90 71 / 50 30 40 50 Calera 87 68 90 68 / 70 30 40 50 Auburn 82 68 87 69 / 80 30 20 30 Montgomery 86 69 88 70 / 70 50 30 40 Troy 86 69 89 69 / 80 60 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.