textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

- Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast for most of this week.

- High temperatures will climb back up this week starting Tuesday with readings from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

Surface high pressure continues to deteriorate with only weak Southeast US ridging into the Western Atlantic. Onshore flow continues around into Alabama with a cloud filled satellite picture. The radar is indicating numerous showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures will nudge upward through next week outside of areas of convection starting Tuesday. The current wet pattern with daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through this week.

In the upper levels, the upper low that we have been writing about recently has opened up and is now situated over the Central Plains this afternoon. It will continue to push northeastward through the general flow and also build southward into a trough to over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Through the short term, shortwave disturbances will propagate periodically around a Deep South and Gulf upper ridge being influenced by the building trough. By Tuesday, this upper trough/shortwave progresses into a larger trough stretching from Eastern Canada, extending southward across Eastern Conus and into the Deep South. The latest guidance is a bit slower than yesterday not progressing the Eastern Conus trough to the Atlantic Coast until mid week. At the same time, the Deep South upper ridge would retrograde back over Texas and portions of the Deep South. The result for Central Alabama would be the shifting of our main precipitation axis slightly eastward but still with isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced convection chances for the latter half of next week. The far extended guidance suggests a front trying to push into the Deep South by next weekend. However, with the zonal flow set up from late week flat upper ridging, there will not be good upper support for southern progress of this system.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

Cigs are MVFR to VFR across Central Alabama sites currently with areas of SHRA scattered about the area this afternoon with a few isolated TS areas with upper shortwave activity and an overall wet pattern. High probabilities for SHRA will continue this afternoon and will begin to slowly decrease in coverage as the night progresses as the main precipitation axis shifts some to the north. Reduced VSBYs will be noted at times with the rain.

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FIRE WEATHER

Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of this week. Because of that, MinRH values will remain above 50% or higher as well this week. Given daily rain chances and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 81 68 85 / 60 70 40 60 Anniston 70 80 68 84 / 50 70 40 70 Birmingham 70 82 69 87 / 50 60 20 50 Tuscaloosa 72 84 71 89 / 50 50 20 20 Calera 70 84 68 89 / 50 50 20 40 Auburn 70 83 70 86 / 30 30 30 40 Montgomery 71 85 71 89 / 40 30 10 20 Troy 70 86 71 89 / 30 20 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.