textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms is in place late tonight and Monday, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats

- There is a moderate (30-50%) chance for patchy dense fog late tonight into Monday morning.

- Dry and stable weather is anticipated for the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds in.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a fairly active pattern across the country. A stout upper low can be seen churning near the Great Lakes as several subtle shortwaves rotate across the Southern Plains. A cold front can be analyzed back our north and west across the ArkLaTex region. Locally, visibilities were slow to improve this morning as dense fog settled in across the majority of the region earlier. Lingering low level moisture and light winds tonight will promote another round of patchy to dense fog. Latest HREF probabilities suggest a 30-50% chance of visibilities less than 1 mile across our southern tier of counties. To add to this, both the NAM12 and RAP13 hint at condensation pressure deficits from 1-3mb along with narrowing dew points. Another Dense Fog Advisory is likely in the cards for tonight into Monday morning.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this evening as the aforementioned cold front approaches the region. Latest guidance continues to depict decaying showers and storms moving into the area late tonight into Monday morning. By the time this activity makes it to the state, instability will be fairly limited. Nevertheless, there is a low chance for a few thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and large hail if activity can capitalize on a pocket of greater instability, primarily across the southern and western portions of the CWA. Any convection will wane through the morning hours as the upper level support pulls away from the region. The front will lag behind a bit, eventually passing through during the afternoon hours tomorrow. As a result, additional convection is likely across our southern areas as low level convergence is maximized along the front. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms across our western areas tonight and across our southeastern areas on Monday.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure take control in the wake of the front, leaving us dry through the work week. As we head through the week, an upper trough will slide across the Northern Plains while sending another cold front our way. With limited moisture, we are currently not expecting any impacts from this one.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

MVFR ceilings are lingering across all sites except for BHM where VFR has returned. Latest satellite trends show improvements. Therefore,VFR is expected to return to all terminals in the next couple of hours. Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings and vis are likely tonight and early Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Best chances for vis restrictions will be across our southern terminals. Continued with the PROB30 for TSRA at TCL tomorrow morning to account for the low chance of convection at the terminal as the front moves through. Otherwise, light and variable winds today will turn northerly tomorrow morning, increasing to 6-10 knots.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Continued rain chances as we wrap up the weekend will help keep min RH values generally above 50%. Drier air returns late Monday in the wake of a cold front with min RH values falling to 30-40% by Tuesday afternoon. A dry cold front late Wednesday will knock min RHs down into the 30-35% range. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 77 50 79 / 10 20 0 0 Anniston 57 78 53 79 / 10 20 0 0 Birmingham 61 78 55 81 / 20 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 61 78 56 82 / 30 20 0 0 Calera 60 80 55 82 / 20 30 0 0 Auburn 62 82 60 80 / 10 40 20 0 Montgomery 60 82 59 81 / 10 40 10 0 Troy 61 83 59 82 / 10 40 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.