textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 732 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is present tonight from 9 pm through 3 am Monday for the western counties of Central Alabama. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- There is a low to moderate (20 to 40%) chance for patchy dense fog late tonight into Monday morning.

- Another marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is present for late Monday from 2 pm to 8 pm for the southeast counties of Central Alabama. The main threat is damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a fairly active pattern across the country. A stout upper low can be seen churning near the Great Lakes as several subtle shortwaves rotate across the Southern Plains. A cold front can be analyzed back our north and west across the ArkLaTex region. Locally, visibilities were slow to improve this morning as dense fog settled in across the majority of the region earlier. Lingering low level moisture and light winds tonight will promote another round of patchy to dense fog. Latest HREF probabilities suggest a 30-50% chance of visibilities less than 1 mile across our southern tier of counties. To add to this, both the NAM12 and RAP13 hint at condensation pressure deficits from 1-3mb along with narrowing dew points. Another Dense Fog Advisory is likely in the cards for tonight into Monday morning.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this evening as the aforementioned cold front approaches the region. Latest guidance continues to depict decaying showers and storms moving into the area late tonight into Monday morning. By the time this activity makes it to the state, instability will be fairly limited. Nevertheless, there is a low chance for a few thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and large hail if activity can capitalize on a pocket of greater instability, primarily across the southern and western portions of the CWA. Any convection will wane through the morning hours as the upper level support pulls away from the region. The front will lag behind a bit, eventually passing through during the afternoon hours tomorrow. As a result, additional convection is likely across our southern areas as low level convergence is maximized along the front. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms across our western areas tonight and across our southeastern areas on Monday.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure take control in the wake of the front, leaving us dry through the work week. As we head through the week, an upper trough will slide across the Northern Plains while sending another cold front our way. With limited moisture, we are currently not expecting any impacts from this one.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

VFR conditions are currently present at all Central Alabama TAF sites. Showers, along with a few thunderstorms at times, will move across the area tonight into Monday from northwest to southeast ahead of a frontal system. Lower MVFR CIGs/VIS may develop at times with the convection. Otherwise, look for northerly winds 7-11kts to develop behind the front during the day on Monday. Chances are too low to mention TS at this time, but will be keeping an eye or trends for any needed amendments.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Continued rain chances as we wrap up the weekend will help keep min RH values generally above 50%. Drier air returns late Monday in the wake of a cold front with min RH values falling to 30-40% by Tuesday afternoon. A dry cold front late Wednesday will knock min RHs down into the 30-35% range. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 77 50 79 / 20 30 0 0 Anniston 57 78 53 79 / 20 30 0 0 Birmingham 61 78 55 81 / 30 30 0 0 Tuscaloosa 61 78 56 82 / 30 30 0 0 Calera 60 80 55 82 / 20 40 0 0 Auburn 62 82 60 80 / 10 40 10 0 Montgomery 60 82 59 81 / 20 40 20 0 Troy 61 83 59 82 / 20 40 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.