textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026

- There is a high probability of fog, with areas of dense fog, across central Alabama through Wednesday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued.

- Well above-normal temperatures will approach record territory on Wednesday and Thursday.

- A low chance for severe storms may materialize Friday through early Saturday morning for the northwestern half of Central AL, but uncertainty remains high at this time.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 545 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026

Update this evening to issue the dense fog advisory for much of Central Alabama. We are already seeing some patchy areas of fog and this will only increase as we remain very moist over the area. Restricted visibilities should last through at least 9 AM and may be longer in a few spots. Give yourself some extra time in the morning. Otherwise, temperatures are on track so far for the night so no major changes planned here.

16

Previous discussion: (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 237 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026

Tonight through Thursday:

Overnight tonight, winds will become variable or calm as a cold front stalls close to the Mississippi River Delta region and upper heights begin to rise. Meanwhile, fog formation is expected once again overnight tonight, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. At this point we've opted to hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory, as we're expecting a combination of low clouds and fog but will continue to monitor the latest observation trends through the evening. Folks in higher elevation areas will most likely be socked in with dense fog based on current guidance trends, so I wouldn't be surprised if an advisory is issued this evening. Folks should keep that in mind if they're planning on traveling overnight. Temperatures were kept very mild ranging from near 50 degrees at Haleyville to 60 degrees at Eufaula. Clouds and fog will finally mix out by mid- morning on Wednesday with plenty of sunshine and southwesterly surface flow to send temperatures well into the 70s, and perhaps mid to upper 70s at Selma and Demopolis. High temperature records for early January are in the mid to upper 70s as well, so we'll get close to a few of those. We'll see similar very warm conditions on Thursday as broad ridging takes hold across much of the eastern CONUS.

Friday through Early Next Week:

The Deep South is finally expected to move out of the warm sector by Friday through the day on Saturday as a longwave trough ejects eastward from the Four Corners and Rocky Mountain states. We could see a lower-end chance for a few strong to severe storms Friday afternoon through potentially as late as early Saturday morning for locations north and west of Birmingham. A potent 500mb vort max, along with a 925mb jet of 40+ knots from the south and southeast will produce sufficient wind shear for decent hodographs and SRH between 250 and 300 m2/s2. In addition, a surface low is progged to develop across northwestern Mississippi and move northeast. Where the high shear overlaps with low CAPE values is where the low-end chance for severe storms will be, roughly from Demopolis to Birmingham to Gadsden westward. Best conditions for severe storms will be confined to the northwestern 5 counties of Lamar, Fayette, Walker, Winston, and Marion. We'll keep an eye on guidance trends as we get closer, but for now we're expecting this system to briefly glance across the forecast area before the main cold front sweeps across the state. This cold front is coming through later on today's guidance runs, now on track to move across the CWA during the day on Saturday with numerous showers and storms developing ahead of it. With most dynamics well off to the north and east of the area, these storms aren't expected to be severe at this time.

Much cooler temperatures will arrive by Saturday night through early next week, but nothing that we can't deal with this time of the year. After a very chilly day with highs in the 40s and breezy northwest winds on Sunday, guidance is advertising a widespread freeze Monday morning and a slow moderation of temperatures by the middle of next week.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026

More IFR conditions are forecast for central Alabama TAF sites through the overnight hours, especially for the northern locations. Ceilings and visibilities may bounce around a bit through about 0800 to 0900 UTC, but I do think these restrictions will become more steady state as the overnight wears on.

Visibilities will be the first to improve after 1200 UTC Wednesday, but it may take until closer to 1800 UTC before ceilings can climb above 1000 ft. Once conditions improve to MVFR or VFR, there's a greater chance than not that they stay there for the remainder of the forecast period.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

No fire weather concerns for the next several days as Min RHs remain in the 40-80% range. Abnormally warm conditions will continue through the week with increasing moisture advection to the region. Showers and storms will move into the area Friday afternoon through Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 50 70 48 71 / 10 0 0 10 Anniston 52 71 51 72 / 20 0 0 10 Birmingham 55 70 54 71 / 10 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 54 72 54 74 / 10 0 0 10 Calera 54 73 52 73 / 20 0 0 10 Auburn 57 73 56 72 / 10 10 0 10 Montgomery 60 75 55 76 / 10 10 0 10 Troy 58 75 55 75 / 10 10 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton- Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.