textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 954 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026 - Above normal temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming week.

- Increased rain chances for the end of the week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 954 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026

With increasing moisture across the region and isentropic lift, expect another day of lower clouds for much of the area and low chances (15-20%) for light rain showers through the day on Wednesday. As the frontal boundary approaches Thursday into Friday, look for medium to high rain chances (60-70%). The frontal boundary is expected to stall across Central AL Friday through at least Saturday night before a secondary trough swings through and pushes the frontal boundary south and east of our areas on Sunday. This sets up for a rainy weekend for most of Central AL. We'll have to watch for a few stronger storms across the south on Saturday, but the overall dynamics aren't overly impressive at this point.

After the system exits our area Sunday, cooler and drier air builds in across Central AL for the first half of next week. Diurnal temperatures will return to more seasonable ranges for this time of year.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026

VFR conditions should continue through the remainder of the evening before lower ceilings begin to build in generally after 07z. Expect MVFR CIGs to persist through much of the overnight, becoming IFR from roughly 10z to 15z. There's a 30% chance that IFR CIGS move in quicker, but we'll monitor that as the evening evolves. Ceilings may struggle to lift during the day tomorrow, but should improve to MVFR by 15z and then to VFR by the late afternoon towards the end of this TAF period.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Low clouds will develop this morning across Central AL, which may delay mixing as we go through the day. With the increased moisture in the region, MinRHs will remain well above critical values through the end of the week and into the weekend. There are low chances for light rain showers today, increasing to medium to high rain chances Thursday through Saturday as a frontal boundary moves into Central AL and stalls.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 51 70 57 78 / 0 10 10 20 Anniston 52 71 58 78 / 0 10 10 30 Birmingham 55 71 60 78 / 0 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 54 74 59 80 / 0 0 10 10 Calera 52 75 58 80 / 0 10 10 20 Auburn 52 71 60 79 / 0 10 20 30 Montgomery 52 75 59 82 / 0 10 20 20 Troy 52 74 59 82 / 0 10 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.