textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place over the next week with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches are forecast over the entirety of next week, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms moved across much of Central Alabama this afternoon and evening ahead of a surface boundary. Convection is decayed but ongoing at this hour across the counties generally southeast of I-85. The surface boundary may meander a bit further southward tonight, but is expected to stall across the midsection of Alabama during the day Monday and remain stalled through mid week on Wednesday. Temperatures will decrease behind the surface boundary some, but some of that will be more due to increased post front cloud cover and rain chances than a true cold airmass. With broad upper troughing expected along with disturbances interacting with the lingering boundary, the southern half to two thirds of Central Alabama will remain in a very wet pattern with the stalled system for the short term as a result. Onshore moisture increases for the latter part of the week with the front decaying. Toward the end of the week, another frontal system approaches to keep elevated rain chances going into this coming weekend. Extended guidance is now suggesting that next weekend's front may stall across the area as well. This would suggest the wet pattern continuing into next week. Overall QPF continues to creep up with the latest guidance for the week. We are now looking at the potential for 3-7 inches by the end of our 7 day forecast. Roughly 1-2 inches may occur for days 1-2, with an additional 2-5 for days 4-7 with a few locally higher amounts. As we get closer to mid week, we will be looking closely at this guidance for the potential for flooding and resulting watches.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals outside of convection. A line of convection will continue to move southeast across Central Alabama ahead of a front this evening. Convection has just exited the 10 mile cone for EET. I have a TEMPO group for this evening for MGM/AUO to account for the line passing through. There is a medium chance for MVFR cigs/vsbys with the TSRA as it goes through along with gusty winds. More convection is expected on Monday afternoon for MGM/AUO (lower chance for TCL) as the front should stall across the southern half of the area tonight with storms firing up again tomorrow.

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FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances continue as a front slowly moves across the region. We will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 82 63 81 / 10 10 20 40 Anniston 70 82 65 79 / 10 10 30 60 Birmingham 70 82 66 80 / 10 10 40 60 Tuscaloosa 72 83 68 80 / 20 30 60 70 Calera 71 84 67 80 / 10 20 60 80 Auburn 73 85 69 75 / 40 50 60 90 Montgomery 73 84 69 77 / 40 90 70 90 Troy 74 85 69 77 / 40 90 70 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.