textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 446 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026

- Low temperatures will remain near or below freezing through Sunday morning.

- A warming trend will develop late Sunday through at least midweek with lows above freezing and highs reaching into the 60s to 70s.

- Dry conditions are forecast through early Tuesday next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 930 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026

This afternoon.

Longwave troughing is moving east over the area today while a unidirectional northwesterly flow pattern will become established over the area in its wake while highly amplified ridging persists over much of the Intermountain West. Elongated surface high pressure extends from across Upstate New York southwest across much of the Oho River Valley into South Texas and will continue to build into the local area today. Dry conditions persist with winds from the northwest while low clouds finally thinning out across the west and southwest counties this morning with additional mix-out expected through the rest of the day. Expect skies to become partly cloudy to mostly sunny by this afternoon while temperatures will peak in the low 40s northwest to near 50 far southeast. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

Tonight.

The northwest flow pattern will persist overnight while surface high pressure will extend from across New England southwest to across the local area and further southwest to along the Texas Gulf Coast. Look for mostly clear skies with lows from the mid 20s far northeast to around 30 southwest. Winds will be from the west to southwest at 2-4 mph.

Friday.

The forecast area will become situated between highly amplified ridging over much of the Southern Plains and Intermountain West while shortwave troughing will persist over much of the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Regions. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Eastern Seaboard and extend southwest into the forecast area. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 50s in the higher terrain northeast and east to readings in the upper 60s southwest. Winds will be from the west at 6-12 mph.

Friday Night.

The northwest flow pattern aloft will begin to lose local influence as ridging to the west advances eastward Friday night. Elongated surface high pressure will migrate further south and east of the area overnight. Look for a limited increase in clouds over the northeast counties late. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20 far northwest to the mid 30s far south. Winds will become north at 3-6 mph.

Saturday.

Broad ridging will build further eastward toward the area during the day Saturday while very strong surface high pressure across South-Central Canada forces a cold front south into the area from the north during the afternoon and evening hours. The dry airmass will keep conditions dry with only some additional clouds across the north, which should decrease later in the day. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s far northwest to the upper 50s far southeast. Winds will be from the north at 6-12 mph.

Sunday through Wednesday.

The long-term portion of the forecast will feature deamplifying ridging building further into the region from the west over the weekend while strong high pressure becomes positioned to the northeast and southeast of the forecast area over the remainder of the weekend followed by a noticable warm up with above-freezing low temperatures and highs in the 60s to near 70 in spots toward midweek. Dry conditions will persist into early Tuesday, followed by low (10-30%) chances for showers with greatest potential northwest later in the Tuesday and into the day on Wednesday.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 446 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026

All sites should remain VFR through the period. Mid to high clouds will move through this evening into tonight but should be mostly gone by tomorrow morning. Winds will be calmer tonight before becoming generally westerly 8-12 kts, gusting to 20 kts, tomorrow.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are forecast today with northwest winds from 7-14 mph at times. Relative Humidity values will decrease into the mid 30 to low 40 percent range by mid afternoon. Look for continued dry conditions through early next week with minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid 40 percent range Friday afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Saturday, resulting in afternoon minimum RH values from near 30% northeast to the low 40% range west, followed by even lower RH values Sunday from the mid 20% range east to the low 30% range west during the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 25 61 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 27 61 29 49 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 30 61 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 29 65 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 29 63 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 30 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 29 63 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 29 64 35 57 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.