textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 158 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts possible through Saturday.

- Heat: Heat index reading will approach 100 degrees beginning Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

A cold front is stalled east to west across Central AL with abundant moisture persisting across the Gulf Coast region. A mid- level shortwave trough tracking across the region today will provide forcing for scattered to widespread showers and storms. Activity will likely begin developing during the late morning hours, but will follow typical diurnal trends, peaking in coverage and intensity during the afternoon. While heavy downpours may cause isolated flooding in saturated areas, the Flash Flood Watch has expired, as higher QPF amounts are forecast north of the areas that received 2-4 inches of rain yesterday.

Thunderstorm potential continues Sunday, followed by additional rain chances Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Highs in the low 90s, combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will push some areas toward 100 degree heat indices Monday afternoon prior to precipitation development.

Persistent cyclonic flow over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, coupled with mid to upper-level ridging over the Desert Southwest, will establish deep-layer west to northwest flow over the Deep South. This pattern supports daily thunderstorm potential across Central AL; embedded shortwave energy will also require monitoring for potential MCS development.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Most precipitation has diminished across Central Alabama, with only lingering low IFR to LIFR ceilings currently observed at most terminals. Overnight forecasts will keep lower ceilings prevailing due to saturated low-level moisture profiles, although observations could fluctuate between SCT and BKN/OVC at times. Visibilities could be impacted as well, very similar to what we saw at this time yesterday. Stubborn IFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail at the terminals through sunrise, slowly rising during the mid-morning hours. Widespread SHRA/TSRA development is expected across much of the area today, especially after 15z and lasting through the evening hours. Although PROB30 was kept in this set of TAFs, I'll probably opt to include a TEMPO group for the 12z TAFs as medium to high confidence exists in storm development and movement. TSRA or VCTS will certainly be an issue for most terminals through tomorrow evening, and interests can expect frequent amendments as a result. Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period outside of storms.

Note: Metars from AUO are coming through but observations are missing data. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED has been added for this set.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 82 68 87 73 / 40 10 50 50 Anniston 82 69 86 73 / 70 10 50 40 Birmingham 81 69 87 74 / 80 20 60 30 Tuscaloosa 82 71 86 75 / 80 30 70 20 Calera 83 69 89 73 / 80 20 60 20 Auburn 82 70 86 73 / 80 20 50 20 Montgomery 82 70 86 73 / 80 20 60 10 Troy 83 70 86 73 / 80 20 60 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.