textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026

- There is a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms late Saturday afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Above average temperatures expected through much of the upcoming forecast.

- Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026

A warm afternoon is on tap for the area with some locations near record temperatures. A subtle shortwave will slide north from the Gulf on Friday and we will see showers and storms develop late in the morning and spreading north and east through the afternoon. This will likely cause much of the area to be slightly cooler than record levels on Friday. This wave will serve as the primer to the front on Saturday. By Saturday morning the front will be approaching the MS River, not moving into Central Alabama until after noon and sliding south and east through the night. There is alot of uncertainty on how far south the severe threat will be as the Euro takes the front to the I-85 corridor and the GFS stays generally north of I-20. Currently there is a marginal threat for severe storms down to I-85 according to SPC. With the uncertainties will continue to advertise this area. as the evening progresses we should see the activity decrease in intensity as it begins to layover and stall across the area. The biggest input to this would be the strength of the line as it slides into Alabama.

The front will lift northward Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to decreasing rain chances. However, our next system approaches Wednesday night into Thursday. Currently the threat remains below the slight category for SPC to designate an area, but as timing and proximity gets closer, we expect at least a marginal threat for this time frame.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026

VFR conditions have finally been achieved at all sites, with winds generally around 7 to 10 kts. Look for generally VFR conditions through the rest of the period with the exception of some low clouds again overnight and near sunrise. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday but most of the activity is forecast for after 18z Friday so will not mention in the TAFs at this time.

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FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances increase for Friday with a southerly flow ahead of a weak boundary. Rain chances become more widespread Saturday through Monday as the weak boundary pushes into the region and stalls. A few strong storms are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. An overall wet pattern looks to take shape for next week as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1230 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026

Here are the record highs for the upcoming week that may be close to tying or breaking with our current forecast, especially on Thursday. Clouds and rain on Friday may prevent some areas from reaching the max potential.

March 5: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 83/2022 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 85/1989

March 6: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 81/2023 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 86/2022

March 7: KBHM: 84/1956 KEET: 83/2023 KANB: 85/1974 KTCL: 85/2023 KMGM: 87/2023

March 8: KEET: 81/2000

March 9: KEET: 80/2016 KMGM: 85/1974

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 82 60 82 / 0 40 30 50 Anniston 59 82 61 82 / 0 40 30 40 Birmingham 61 81 63 82 / 0 50 20 50 Tuscaloosa 61 81 63 81 / 0 50 10 60 Calera 60 82 61 82 / 0 50 20 50 Auburn 61 80 62 82 / 10 40 20 30 Montgomery 61 82 62 84 / 10 50 10 30 Troy 61 82 61 84 / 10 50 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.