textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026

- Warm temperatures are expected Friday through next Thursday, with rain-free conditions through at least Wednesday.

- Fire danger will be elevated the next couple of days due to recent dryness, lower RH values, and elevated winds, but sub- critical conditions are expected.

- Drought conditions are expected to worsen through next week.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1009 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026

Friday and Saturday, high pressure will strengthen over the southeast US, with low and mid level winds becoming more easterly. With the center of the high more over the state, winds will become weaker, with less gusting winds through the afternoon. The easterly flow will prevent much moisture from being advected, with dry conditions each day. Fire weather will be a concern through the day Friday and Saturday, though with the winds remaining less than 10 mph, criteria is not anticipated to be reached for a Red Flag Warning. Temperatures will climb both days, with highs around the mid 80s possible by Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, the high shifts eastward to sit on the east coast, with flow transitioning back to the southeast. Moisture will begin to rebound slightly, with RH values rising into the low to mid 30s by Monday afternoon. Through the work week, the high pressure remains stable off the east coast, the area under southeasterly flow. Fire weather concerns will persist through the extended and will keep an eye on each day to assess extent of fire weather concerns.

Several weak low pressure systems will move northeast through the Great Lakes through the work week, along with short waves around the high, though models are showing consistency with no rain through next Wednesday, and all rain remaining to the northwest of the area. Right now, there is a low chance for light rain Thursday in the far northwest, from a shortwave clipping central AL, but with models trending drier each day for the extended period, confidence is bleak on keeping those rain chances in for long. With this in mind, drought conditions may worsen, and quickly across the state.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026

I don't see anything in the computer models that suggests anything besides VFR conditions over the next 24 hour TAF period. The only possible thing would be smoke from ongoing fires or planned burns, that could conceivably cause a slight visibility restriction. But forecasting the locations of such fires (and if they would have any impact at all at a TAF location) is quite problematic, and is best handled with amendments if/when needed.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected through at least Wednesday, with high pressure dominating the pattern. RH values remain in the mid 20s to low 30s each afternoon through Sunday. Although conditions are expected to remain below red flag thresholds, ongoing drought conditions will keep fuels very dry. Any fires could spread quickly due to the the dry conditions and steady afternoon winds that are forecast. Conditions will be closely monitored over the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 79 48 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 79 51 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 80 54 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 81 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 80 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 78 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 80 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 80 53 84 54 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.