textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of central Alabama through Tuesday evening.

- Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the week, and may pose additional risks for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026

The well-above-normal wet pattern will persist through the end of the month, anchored by a persistent upper-level trough over the area. By the beginning of next month, we will begin to see a Pacific system that may force the ridge eastward and allow a backdoor cold front to slide into the area and potentially provide a brief break from the rain. Confidence remains low regarding the exact timing and pattern evolution this far out.

High confidence persists for unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and heavy rainfall through the week. Cumulative rainfall from ongoing showers and high-rate thunderstorms maintains a risk for isolated flash flooding. While overall severe potential is limited, short-lived daytime activity remains possible given the weak atmospheric flow across the region.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026

A moisture rich airmass will remain in place across the area through the next 24 hour TAF period. A steady fetch of Gulf moisture will lead to lowered ceilings and some fog across central Alabama TAF sites overnight, with computer model moisture profiles strongly suggesting IFR ceilings developing areawide. Uncertainties lie in the timing of ceilings going below 1000 ft at any particular location, but confidence is high that it will eventually happen.

As for precipitation, band of showers along the Alabama/Georgia state line is making slow progress to the east. These showers should be out of AUO within a couple hours. Additional showers and storms are likely to develop Tuesday afternoon, and the tropical airmass will lead to at least MVFR visibilities when and where they move through.

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FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day this week. As a result, there are no fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 68 83 67 / 80 50 80 30 Anniston 80 68 83 67 / 90 60 80 30 Birmingham 81 69 83 69 / 80 50 80 30 Tuscaloosa 82 70 84 70 / 80 50 80 30 Calera 81 69 84 69 / 80 50 80 30 Auburn 78 68 82 69 / 90 60 80 20 Montgomery 79 69 83 69 / 90 60 80 20 Troy 79 69 83 69 / 90 60 80 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Hale-Jefferson-Lowndes-Marengo-Montgomery- Perry-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker.