textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through next week.

- Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are forecast across Central Alabama through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026

Active weather will continue over the next several days in the form of waves of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly flow will continue pumping warm, moist air from the Gulf into Central Alabama as an upper low builds in briefly over East Texas early in the week while a ridge is situated off the East Coast. Showers and thunderstorms are again expected Saturday afternoon and evening, although the low-end severe weather and tornado threat that was realized on Friday is not currently anticipated on Saturday. Models generally have a tough time getting a firm grasp on these types of ongoing setups, and guidance has been all over the place in regards to specific timing and placement of precipitation.

Medium to high rain chances will continue day and night all the way through next week, providing much-needed drought relief across Central Alabama. From Saturday through Tuesday night, model guidance currently suggests widespread rainfall totals of 2- 3 inches across the region. Of course, locally higher amounts would be expected in areas that see heavier rain or thunderstorms at times over the next several days.

12

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Low level moisture will be high, with MVFR to IFR ceilings at times through the morning. Most of the convection should hold off until mid to late morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening. With low confidence on timing or coverage of storms, have left PROB30 for TSRA in each TAF for now. High resolution models are really holding on to an increased area of storms late this evening and tonight. With the peak heating and lack of energy in the nighttime hours, have left SHRA in each TAF for now, with a trend in the timing.

24

FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce daily showers and thunderstorms this weekend and through next week. These instances of precipitation and lack of low RH should keep fire weather conditions at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 63 82 65 / 80 40 70 60 Anniston 80 65 82 65 / 80 50 70 60 Birmingham 81 66 82 67 / 80 30 70 70 Tuscaloosa 82 68 82 68 / 70 40 80 70 Calera 81 66 82 67 / 80 40 70 60 Auburn 79 68 82 68 / 80 50 70 60 Montgomery 82 68 83 68 / 80 30 80 50 Troy 81 68 84 67 / 80 30 80 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.