textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 533 PM CST THU NOV 5 2026

- Fog: There's low to medium chances for patchy dense fog in valleys and along rivers late tonight into early Friday morning.

- Frost and Freeze Potential: Medium confidence in frost or freeze development Saturday Night/Sunday morning and again Sunday night/Monday morning across large portions of Central AL. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s both mornings.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1117 AM CST THU NOV 5 2026

The main frontal boundary is slowly moving out of Central AL today with only isolated showers remaining across the far southeastern counties as we go through the day. Skies will be clearing as the drier air slowly filters into the region. The exception may come late tonight into early tomorrow morning when patchy dense fog may develop again, mainly near rivers or low- lying valleys that saw a lot of rainfall yesterday. A secondary trough is expected to swing through on Friday bringing a reinforcing shot of drier air as we go into the weekend. The main story here will be some of the coldest temperatures we've seen so far this Fall across much of the area. Overnight lows Saturday into Sunday morning are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s for most of the area, leading to the potential for frost and freeze conditions. Right now, there's at least a 70-75% chance for frost development across much of the northern counties and through the Black Belt region. The probability of freezing conditions in those areas drops to around 20-30%.

Surface high pressure will build in over the weekend with this cooler air and remain in place through at least Monday. From there, a cut-off upper low will slowly slide through Texas and into the Gulf States through the middle part of next week. Some guidance tries to develop some rainfall with this, but moisture return ahead of this system looks minimal at best, so we'll hold off on including rain in the forecast through mid-week.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST THU NOV 5 2026

Guidance offers some mixed signals on fog development overnight with the RRFS being most bullish. Latest REFS guidance indicates low to medium chances of patchy fog developing near the northern terminals. Given light winds, low dew point depressions, and recent rainfall, TEMPO mentions for MVFR visibilities at EET/TCL/MGM will be maintained around sunrise. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow after any morning fog, with northerly winds around 7 to 10 kts.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Generally light northerly to northeasterly winds are expected through the remainder of the day as the departing front continues to slowly move out of our area. Another shot of drier air will move into the region on Saturday, dropping MinRHs to 40-50% through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 46 74 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 49 74 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 49 73 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 47 75 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 51 73 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 75 48 68 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 76 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 58 75 47 68 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.