textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 106 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

- A daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms is expected through next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

Southwest flow aloft will bring multiple low-amplitude, shortwave troughs across the Gulf Coast region over the next several days. These will result in periods of showers and thunderstorms, aided by weak to moderate instability and a humid air mass. Much of this activity should be diurnally driven; however, the timing of shortwave troughs plus the presence of outflow boundaries and a nearby front could result in some activity occurring outside of the main afternoon-evening diurnal window.

While flow aloft isn't all that strong, there are a few periods from Friday to early next week when forecast soundings indicate bulk shear as high as 25-30 knots, which could yield an opportunity for a couple strong thunderstorms if favorably timed with sufficient instability.

A positive trend in recent model runs is a slight eastward shift, with time, of the persistent mid-level ridge to our east/over the Atlantic. Should this pan out, it would increase the odds of beneficial rain totals encompassing more of central Alabama vs. earlier signals of them being confined to northwest Alabama. Keep in mind that this is a multi-day weather pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms, so don't expect to get all the goods immediately. Similar to a summertime weather pattern, some folks will luck out with rainfall on one day, others the next, and so on.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

For any given terminal, VFR conditions this afternoon and evening may be interrupted by a shower or thunderstorm given the scattered nature of activity. MVFR-IFR ceilings are forecast for much of central Alabama overnight into Thursday morning, along with patchy fog, before becoming VFR by or during the afternoon. A persistent weather pattern will produce another scattering of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce a daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms through next week. Bouts of precipitation and lack of low RH will keep fire weather conditions at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 64 84 63 84 / 60 70 60 80 Anniston 65 84 64 84 / 50 60 50 70 Birmingham 67 84 66 83 / 60 60 60 80 Tuscaloosa 67 85 67 82 / 60 60 60 90 Calera 66 86 66 84 / 60 50 50 80 Auburn 68 86 67 86 / 40 40 30 50 Montgomery 68 87 67 86 / 40 40 30 60 Troy 68 88 67 86 / 40 20 10 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.