textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 514 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2026

- Rest of the Weekend: Occasional light to moderate rain showers will move across Central Alabama for Sunday into early Monday. Although most will be rain showers, an isolated clap or two of thunder cannot be ruled out.

- Midweek rain: Another weather system will move into the area around the middle of the upcoming week, bringing increased chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT SUN NOV 1 2026

Scattered, mainly showers, will move across Central Alabama for the rest of tonight. This will be courtesy of shortwave activity from an upper trough extending from the Dakotas SEWD through the Mid Mississippi River Valley and toward the Gulf Coast. As this trough moves EWD across Eastern Conus, showers will become more widespread on Sunday. While most of the activity will be rain showers, a few isolated claps of thunder may be noted. This wave should exit the region Monday morning with rain-free conditions to return for Monday afternoon through most of the day on Tuesday ahead of the next surface frontal system.

By Tuesday night, our next system arrives as a low moves out of Kansas and across to Illinois and Ohio by early Thursday. As it does so, it will drag a front across much of the Gulf Coast States. We could see a few more thunderstorms with enough forcing from the front, along with some heavy rain at times. However, with limiting factors, it is too early to tell if strong storms will develop with the lower stream system. Behind it for Thursday into Thursday night, some wrap around showers may occur as the upper low pushes across Eastern Conus. Then on Friday a second (rain-free) front is expected to bring down a colder Canadian air mass to lower the temperatures back into the 40s for lows for most of Central Alabama for next weekend.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2026

Shower coverage will increase through the morning, as the shortwave disturbance continues to work through the region. All terminals will carry SHRA through 02/00z, with perhaps a few lingering showers past that. Thunder probabilities remain low over the next 24 hours, with confidence not high enough to introduce any TSRA at this time. Terminals can also expect various stages of IFR/MVFR CIGs, with lower ceilings expected during heavier rainfall.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. Rainy weather is forecast to occur tonight into Sunday and again on Wednesday and ending by late Thursday. Easterly winds will gust near 20 mph this weekend, becoming southeasterly on Monday with similar gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 51 76 55 / 60 20 10 0 Anniston 66 54 76 58 / 60 20 10 0 Birmingham 66 55 75 60 / 70 40 20 0 Tuscaloosa 69 57 77 61 / 80 40 20 0 Calera 67 57 75 61 / 80 40 20 0 Auburn 68 57 75 61 / 50 20 10 0 Montgomery 72 58 78 61 / 80 40 10 0 Troy 71 57 77 61 / 60 30 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.