textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama for both Monday and Tuesday in the afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be ongoing overnight across northern and northwestern Central Alabama. Activity should dissipate during the early morning hours. Patchy fog is expected around daybreak. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s once again Monday, with Alabama remaining on the eastern edge of a ridge. A shortwave passing through Tennessee during the afternoon will promote another round of thunderstorm development over Central Alabama through the afternoon and evening hours. There is currently a risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind as the primary threat, mainly across central and northern counties in the region. Recent CAMs have shown fairly widespread convection across the area, with counties in the southeastern part of the area having lesser chances of rain/storms. Activity should begin developing just after midday, from 12 to 2 pm, and continue until slowly waning by 8 or 9 pm.

Tuesday afternoon will feature another chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This offers another opportunity to see a low-end severe risk, with damaging wind again as the primary threat. By Wednesday and Thursday, slightly cooler air will push in, dropping high temperatures into the 80s Thursday and Friday. This is finally the first sign that a change in seasons is on the horizon, with the first front of the season coming through just in time for astronomical fall to begin Tuesday evening. Behind the front, rain chances decrease, and the end of the week is currently forecast to be mostly dry and a bit more seasonable across Central Alabama.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026

Additional thunderstorms are expected today under a disturbed airmass, with TCL, BHM, and EET maintaining PROB30 groups for TSRA through 22/01z. There are low chances for reduced VIS again tonight, but confidence was not high enough to introduce that in any FM groups at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected for this entire TAF period.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the middle of this week, especially north and central counties, with light winds outside of convection. Drying toward the end of the week, with very minimal to no rain chances and RH dipping into the 35-45% range in the afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 94 69 93 66 / 50 30 60 30 Anniston 93 70 92 68 / 50 40 60 20 Birmingham 94 72 93 69 / 50 30 50 20 Tuscaloosa 96 71 96 68 / 50 30 40 10 Calera 94 70 94 68 / 50 30 50 10 Auburn 91 71 91 69 / 30 20 40 10 Montgomery 94 72 93 70 / 30 20 30 10 Troy 94 70 94 68 / 20 10 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.