textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 104 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026

- A Level 1/5 Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place Sunday afternoon across southern portions of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary threats.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern counties of Central Alabama.

- Very cold air arrives late Sunday into early next week. Cold weather hazards will be needed for Sunday night through Tuesday as lows reach the teens and single digits.

DISCUSSION

(Through Friday) Issued at 104 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026

I feel like I have large shoes to fill this morning trying to follow up on some excellent forecast discussions the last few days. In an effort to keep things simple, I will opt to explain major changes to the forecast tonight, instead of going over the same things my counterparts have been in excellent detail.

Winter Weather through Sunday:

The threat for winter weather still seems to be isolated to a handful of our north zones through Sunday morning. In fact, we had enough confidence tonight to go ahead and cancel the existing Winter Storm Watch early for Calhoun and Cleburne counties. While some wintry mix is certainly possible here at higher elevations, temperatures in general don't seem all that supportive for widespread winter weather and impacts. Otherwise, no other changes were made to the Winter Weather Advisory, and it remains in effect until 00z Monday. Depending on how the low pressure progresses, it may end up getting canceled early as well. It's also worth noting here given the temperature trends, some of these counties may end up coming out of this with little to no impacts, and the highest confidence for winter weather remains in our NW.

Severe Weather Sunday Afternoon/Evening:

Afternoon guidance continues to shift the deepening surface low to the north into the afternoon hours on Sunday. This would allow for warmer air from the Gulf to work farther north, and allow for higher instability values. For the most part, it still looks like a narrow corridor of CAPE along the lines of 500-700 J/Kg could work as far north as Elmore county and east, continuing to trek east as the front works through the region. Given forecast wind profiles, and proximity to the low pressure, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain the main threats, but these threats remain very conditional. Thus, the Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) remains in place.

Very Cold Air Behind the Front:

Incredibly cold air behind the front remains almost certain, but there's an interesting caveat here that would dictate just how cold the region gets. A key factor in this cold air advection was the air having to travel over all of the snow to our north. This would have aided in keeping the cold airmass even colder. Well, as the threat for a large snowpack to our north decreases, as does the ceiling for overnight lows Monday and Tuesday. With all that being said, the floor for these lows remains very high, and this may ultimately result in a difference of only 2-3 degrees when it's all said and done. However, it's worth mentioning just in case the forecast starts to "warm" the next few days, even with these temperatures remaining the least conditional impactful weather in the forecast. Because of this, the Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect, with future upgrades likely to come in the next 24-hours or so.

Wednesday Onward:

Temperatures will remain well below average into the weekend, with the rest of the workweek remaining dry. I'm sure some of you have seen some of the guidance output for next weekend, and yes, it's entirely possible we see additional winter weather next weekend given well below average temperatures. With that being said, that's another forecast that will entirely depend on the placement of a low pressure, which is why it's important to not lock onto any one model output this far out. As we're currently experiencing, winter weather events need time to evolve, and we'll have a much better picture of what things could look like here in a few days. /44/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

Most terminals will see VFR conditions until 24/15z, before widespread cloud cover works back into the region. Most terminals will fall into MVFR category ahead of light rain showers, continuing to fall into IFR/LIFR category when the heavier rain moves in around 25/00z.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Widespread rain is still expected through the weekend, with most locations seeing between 2-4 inches by Monday. Dry air will quickly work into the region by the new workweek, with MinRH values dropping back between 30-40%. Given the wet fuels, fire weather concerns will remain little to none through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 48 37 55 16 / 60 90 100 30 Anniston 50 39 58 20 / 40 90 100 30 Birmingham 48 42 56 19 / 60 100 100 20 Tuscaloosa 48 41 52 19 / 80 100 100 20 Calera 53 42 59 19 / 60 100 100 30 Auburn 54 42 63 26 / 20 80 100 50 Montgomery 58 51 70 23 / 30 80 100 40 Troy 60 53 71 23 / 20 70 90 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Sunday for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah- Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.