textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

- Medium chances for patchy fog development tonight, especially near bodies of water.

- High temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures.

- Cooler temperatures are expected by next Saturday, but how much cooler remains uncertain. Little to no precipitation is expected with this cold front.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

The center of vertically stacked post-tropical cyclone Isaias is currently crossing the Blue Ridge Mountains in North Carolina. Wraparound cloudiness is currently limited to our northeast counties, and will continue to clear through the afternoon. High pressure moving in tonight will result in light winds and clear skies, other than a couple patches of cirrus. Some drier air will be moving in just above the surface, but recent tropical rainfall and a shallow inversion will result in concerns for ground fog development overnight. Right now confidence is only high enough to mention patchy fog along river valleys per latest HREF and HRRR guidance, but this may need to be expanded depending on guidance trends.

Strong sub-tropical ridging moves overhead through the week, steering any precipitation away from the area. Well above normal high temperatures are expected with medium to high chances for record high temperatures. While humidity values will be low, those engaged in Isaias recovery operations should be mindful of the heat. Ensemble clusters are in fairly good agreement on a frontal passage in the Friday/Saturday timeframe due to strong high pressure moving out of the Northern Plains, with little to no precipitation associated with the front. However, clusters show a lot of spread in the amplitude of the upper trough and associated strength of the front. At this time the cluster of physical ensemble model solutions with the stronger front/coolest temperatures, similar to the deterministic GFS, are in the minority. However, the cooler solutions do have some support from the AI guidance. Regardless, conditions should start to feel more like fall next weekend.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Skies have cleared at all terminals, with WNW winds at 10-12 kts gusting to around 20kts. Mostly clear skies and calm winds are expected overnight. With recent rainfall, this raises the concern for fog development early tomorrow morning. While current guidance only indicates low to medium (20-50%) potential for fog along rivers, given the wet ground conditions have included TEMPOs for MVFR vis at the typically foggy terminals (EET/TCL/MGM). Trends will be monitored for potential for lower visibilities at the next TAF issuance.

Note: Will continue with AMD NOT SKED at AUO due to missing observational data.

32/JDavis

CLIMATE

Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Record High Temperatures:

October 12: KBHM: 91/1963 KEET: 86/2014 KANB: 88/1963 KTCL: 92/1963 KMGM: 91/2017

October 13: KBHM: 89/1953 KEET: 89/2017 KANB: 90/1954 KTCL: 90/1963

October 14: KBHM: 89/1984 KEET: 89/2016 KANB: 88/1975 KTCL: 90/1962 KMGM: 91/1883

October 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881

October 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 55 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 59 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 58 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 59 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 60 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 57 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 58 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.