textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with no rain chances, causing drought conditions to worsen.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026

The forecast remains on track from the overnight shift, with only minor adjustments made. Looking out the window, there's a rare sighting of radar echoes just to our northwest. These echoes are associated with mid to upper-level shortwave impulses riding up and over the 590 decameter ridge centered just to the west of the Florida Peninsula. The KBMX 12z sounding measured a measly 0.55 inches of precipitable water with considerable dry air measured aloft to 700mb. In other words, there's little to no chance of any rainfall moving into the forecast area today. Any radar echoes that happen to move into our far NW counties today will have a very low chance of actually reaching the surface. Mostly to partly cloudy skies will remain in place however, which will keep temperatures from rising above the low to mid 80s across the NW half of the CWA. The SE half closer to the I-85 corridor could approach those upper 80s with clouds more scattered in nature. Surface winds will remain breezy at times from the south due to the strong pressure gradient between the 1030mb ridge dominating over the western Atlantic and storm system moving across the Great Plains. As mentioned over the past several forecast cycles, we'll stay just shy of Red Flag criteria in terms of RH values but highly advise against any burning. Dry ground and fuel conditions would favor rapid fire growth capable of spreading quickly with forecast winds of 10 to 15mph this afternoon.

Following a fairly mild overnight period with lows in the 50s to near 60 once again, we'll start to slowly but surely inch closer to the 90 degree mark by the end of the week. Records will certainly be in jeopardy, which are listed in the climate section below for reference. The best chance of hitting 90 degrees will be on Thursday or Friday before the cold front arrives by Saturday night and into Sunday. Global guidance is unfortunately trending drier as the front moves across the region on Sunday due to lack of low-level moisture return and upper level forcing far removed to our north. As drier air moves in on Monday and Tuesday of next week, fire weather concerns could increase once again with drought conditions continuing to worsen.

56/GDG

Previous discussion: (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

An unseasonably strong 590 decameter subtropical ridge will remain centered along the Florida Gulf Coast through Thursday, generally steering a series of shortwaves to the northwest of Central Alabama and resulting in near-record high temperatures each day. At low-levels a Bermuda high will maintain southerly low-level flow. However, the combination of easterly flow trajectories over the eastern Gulf, the shallow nature of the moisture, and strong downward mixing of dry air aloft will maintain a dry air mass, along with dry ground conditions. Weak vorticity maxima in southwest flow aloft will result in just some high clouds today. These clouds and onshore flow may knock a degree or two off of high temperatures, but they will still be well above normal. RH values will be slightly higher today while winds still remain a bit elevated. These will remain shy of red flag thresholds, but fire danger remains elevated nonetheless. Little change in air mass is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will be close to records. RH values will be near critical levels with slightly weaker winds.

A shortwave temporarily weakens the ridge a bit on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorm activity off to our west/northwest will weaken as it encounters the dry air mass, with just low chances for showers and storms in our far northwest counties. The center of the ridge retrogrades to the central Gulf by Friday. Meanwhile a mid-level ridge axis also builds back to the north across the Southeast as a deeper trough digs across the western CONUS. Medium probabilities of highs reaching 90F are indicated by the NBM for Friday, which would be the first 90 degree readings of the season for many areas. Low to medium chances of highs reaching 90 continue on Saturday. The western trough pushes eastward over the weekend, with a frontal passage expected Saturday night. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates good agreement on the frontal passage, but some differences regarding the amplitude of the trough that will dictate rain coverage along the front. Rainfall amounts are still unimpressive with the more amplified solutions, however, with limited moisture return and most of the precipitation behind the front. Fire concerns may increase behind the front Sunday, especially in the southeast half of the area which looks to receive little to no rainfall.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Surface winds will prevail around 10 knots with gusts between 15 and 20 knots from the south this afternoon, then become light and variable overnight.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Fire danger will remain elevated through this afternoon, getting very close to Red Flag criteria in a few locations. MinRHs are now forecast to drop into the upper 20s to near 30 along and east of the I-65 corridor, with mostly mid 30s elsewhere. 20ft winds are also forecast to gust between 15 and 20mph at times. RH values are forecast to drop Tuesday and Wednesday down to critical thresholds around 25%, while 20ft winds will gust to 10-15 mph. No rainfall is expected through the end of the week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which may increase fire weather concerns through the weekend given a lack of significant rainfall expected with the frontal passage.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KEET: 87/2017 KTCL: 87/1972 KMGM: 88/1972

April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972

April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 84 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 84 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 84 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 85 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.