textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning across northwestern portions of Central Alabama.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. Details involving timing and hazards will be refined as we get closer.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 114 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026

In the short term, weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure will hold on just enough to keep conditions dry across central Alabama through Thursday night. Height anomalies remain close to zero to slightly positive, which means temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal normals.

The tail end of an upper level shortwave trough will swing through the area on Friday and Saturday. While the more hefty portion of this shortwave will be in the upper midwest to Great Lakes area, there remains likely enough lift associated with our tail end portion to help generate showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will start to ramp up Friday afternoon. Global models are pretty similar in depicting the time frame of best rain chances coming between Friday evening and around noon on Saturday.

The SPC Marginal Risk is noted for our area on Friday. The current thinking is that the more substantial severe risk on Friday will be well to our west (OK/AR area). But if that convection gets well organized, then it could still tap into some lingering instability as it moves eastward later in the day Friday into the overnight hours.

Sunday is a bit of a respite and recharge day, in between systems. As we get into Monday, a somewhat more substantial severe weather risk develops. Another upper level shortwave trough is forecast to lift out of southwest states into the Great Lakes. This shortwave is a bit stronger than the preceding one, and the global models tend to agree that it will help drive a cold front into our area late Friday. Again, the larger scale synoptic level forcing will be well to our north. But this time, surface convergence along and ahead of the advancing front should be able to provide some lift to go with the in situ moisture and instability. Shear parameters, while not through the roof, also appear to be sufficient to organize thunderstorms. As SPC mentioned in their Day 4-8 discussion, the potential strength of our system on Monday is largely contingent on what happens to our west on Sunday and Sunday night. Too much convection carrying too far downstream too quickly could hinder the instability profile here, and dampen our severe weather risk. But if Sunday's convection is limited in coverage and scope, then there's a chance of supercell development near or just east of the MS River Monday afternoon, which would then carry downstream and affect us into the overnight hours. Stay tuned.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all central Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hour period. Computer model low level moisture profiles strongly suggest virtually no chance of any low level cloud or fog formation. Trajectory of smoke from wildfires in adjacent areas should keep the chance for visibility restrictions to a minimum in our area. Surface high pressure will keep wind speeds at or below 5 kts through the period.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN will run through 04/29 18z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will be the main story through the next few days as we near or exceed critical RH values during the afternoons. With high pressure in place, winds should remain generally light and variable, but elevated fire concerns are still present due to the dry fuels and low humidity values. There will be a shift in the pattern as we head into the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Friday and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 50 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 53 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 56 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 20 Calera 55 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 56 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 55 84 57 86 / 0 10 0 10 Troy 54 83 55 85 / 0 10 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.