textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 132 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

- Rain: Showers and storms remain in the forecast through today. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the southern sections of the region, with locally higher possible.

- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and persist into the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

Over the last 24-hours, there has been an unfortunate and substantial shift in the forecast, resulting in a dramatic decrease in previously forecasted rainfall amounts. Previously, the disturbance moving inland from the Gulf was expected to briefly move along the MS/AL state line, before taking a hard pivot east. It was this brief period of north movement that was going to allow for plenty of interaction along the front, resulting in the widespread 2+ inches of rainfall. Now, this disturbance is favoring a direct E/NE movement, moving along the FL coastline before working inland once the front has pushed through most of the state. Because of this, the main axis for higher rainfall amounts continues to shift south, since the bulk of the tropical influence will stay south as well. At this time, the main corridor for 2+ inches of rain remains along and south of I-85. Even this is on the northern fringe of the tropical disturbance, and rainfall totals may creep down here as well. North of I-85, the bulk of the rainfall today will fall along, or slightly ahead of the cold front, with rainfall totals expected to amount to near an inch or less.

Another slight shift in the forecast are temperatures for next week. The low pressure over the Midwest has also taken a more eastward track, meaning that the trough won't dig as far south as previously expected. The cold front will quickly retrograde north, allowing for highs to stabilize in the upper-70s east, to upper-80s west. Overnight lows on the other hand are still expected to fall into a more seasonal feel, as cooler air filters down the Appalachian Mountains, with lows generally ranging in the 50s.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

All sites are currently VFR, but conditions will deteriorate to MVFR between 9-12z as low level moisture increases and SHRAs develop and become widespread today ahead of a surface front. Most sites are likely to deteriorate further to IFR from 10-15z. TS probability is low and will leave out a mention ATTM. A few sites may improve back to MVFR during the afternoon but shout go back down to IFR after sunset. Winds are expected to remain light with this system.

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FIRE WEATHER

Southerly flow through the weekend, bringing higher rain chances. Broadly, the area will see around 1 inch of rain by Sunday night. Overall, there is roughly a 70% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rainfall across Central Alabama, with lower probabilities for higher totals. Drier and cooler air returns on Tuesday and persists through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 79 63 84 56 / 80 40 10 0 Anniston 78 65 83 59 / 90 50 10 0 Birmingham 79 65 84 59 / 80 40 10 0 Tuscaloosa 82 66 88 60 / 80 40 10 0 Calera 79 67 84 62 / 90 50 10 0 Auburn 76 67 79 65 / 90 80 20 10 Montgomery 78 67 82 65 / 90 80 20 10 Troy 77 66 80 64 / 90 80 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.