textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026

- Periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend, with low chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026

Tonight a surface frontal boundary is now situated from west to east from the central part of Arkansas to the far northern portions of Alabama and eastward to the South Carolina coast. This boundary may nudge a bit further southward tonight before meandering back northward during the day Friday to as far north as the middle part of Tennessee. The upper level steering currents will be rather weak through Friday night as a shortwave protrudes southeast out of the east side of an upper low over the Western US. The combination of the shortwave and the closer proximity of a front will help to increase our rain chances for Friday and Friday night.

On Saturday the upper flow will transition to a more west- northwest flow as the upper low shifts northeast into the Rockies, ridging expands northward from Mexico and the Western Gulf, and a second large low feature cycles out of Eastern Canada into New England. This will allow for the surface frontal boundary to move back southward slowly across Alabama over the weekend resulting in a continued high probability of convection for Saturday into Sunday with the focus of the frontal boundary.

Lower rain chances will continue behind the front for portions of Central Alabama on Monday through Thursday in the extended forecast as the large upper low swings southeast across New England Monday, then moves southward to just off the New Jersey coast Tuesday into Wednesday, and finally pushes northeastward away from Conus on Thursday. As it does so, disturbances rotating around this large low will result in low to medium chances for convection across Central Alabama each day.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026

Area of showers in northwest Alabama at the start of the forecast valid time was moving north, and therefore will not be a direct factor for central Alabama TAFs. Otherwise, ceilings are once again all over the place. The forecast of gradual lifting and mixing out of morning stratus has done us well the past few mornings. And since the airmass across the area is essentially unchanged, will make that same forecast once again. Computer model guidance suggests today will feature a bit more coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. I wish we had a higher confidence in trying to time the arrival of the convection (and its impacts) at any particular location. But the best we can do with the high uncertainty is to give our best shot at a 4 hour window with a TEMPO group. After the rain diminishes in the evening, we are in rinse and repeat mode for the overnight period.

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FIRE WEATHER

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the weekend across Central Alabama. This pattern will lead to high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low clouds or patchy fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 82 65 82 64 / 80 80 90 20 Anniston 82 67 82 66 / 80 70 90 20 Birmingham 82 68 83 67 / 70 60 90 20 Tuscaloosa 84 69 85 69 / 60 60 80 10 Calera 84 68 85 67 / 70 60 90 20 Auburn 83 68 82 68 / 80 80 90 30 Montgomery 84 68 84 68 / 60 50 80 20 Troy 85 68 84 68 / 70 50 80 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.