textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across southern portions of Alabama both this afternoon and evening and again for Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough lifting across the northeast as an upper level ridge expands out to our west. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed draped across the southern half of the state. This boundary is likely to linger close to the northern Gulf coast for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a few impulses will rotate through the northwest flow aloft, helping to trigger a few bouts of convection, generally during the afternoon and evening hours. Greatest chances for convection through mid week will be to the south of the boundary as a moisture convergence axis becomes established. Drier air filtering in across our northern areas will help keep rain chances at bay. To the south of the front, ample instability, high DCAPE and mid-level dry air will continue to promote a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storm. Therefore, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the southern half of the state through Tuesday.

By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work week.

High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper 80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a moderate heat risk for most through the next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. Only a few showers and thunderstorms remain on radar. Only confident enough for a PROB30 mention for MGM through 3z ATTM, but will keep a close eye on the rest. Best chances for convection on Monday will be across the south and west portions of C AL with our surface boundary situated from NW to SE across the southern third of AL. Thus, only confident enough for mentions at TCL/MGM during the day as they will be closer to the boundary. Outside of storms, winds should be light/variable tonight and WNW-NW 4-8kts with mixing on Monday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air may be slow to vacate the area with one more day possible for lower minimum relative humidity values (35 to 45%) for most locations on Monday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins as we head into midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 91 66 92 / 10 0 0 10 Anniston 66 90 66 91 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 70 92 70 92 / 10 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 72 95 72 94 / 10 30 20 20 Calera 70 93 70 92 / 20 30 10 10 Auburn 72 91 71 90 / 20 20 10 0 Montgomery 73 95 72 95 / 20 30 20 10 Troy 72 95 70 93 / 20 30 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.