textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across southern portions of Central Alabama on both Sunday and Monday. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- A moderate (40-60%) chance for patchy fog tonight, with a risk of isolated dense fog pockets before sunrise Sunday

- Drier, quiet conditions are anticipated to follow the Monday morning frontal passage and persist through the work week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026

Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave rotating along the northern Gulf coast. Lift associated with this feature and a stalled boundary along the coast are currently driving a cluster of showers and storms across the southern half of the state. This activity will continue to move south and east through the early afternoon hours. Additional bouts of upper level energy will stream across the region through the weekend leading to low chances of additional showers and storms this afternoon and again on Sunday. Otherwise for tonight, there is a moderate (40-60%) chance for patchy fog to develop across the region. Best chances are for those that saw plentiful rainfall earlier this morning. RAP guidance is indicating a swath of condensation pressure deficits from 0-3mb along with narrowing dew point depressions. This could lead to a few isolated pockets of dense fog before sunrise Sunday.

As we head through the day Sunday, an upper trough will swing across the northern Plains towards the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will head our way late Sunday into Monday morning. Moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will contribute to another round of showers and thunderstorms. The latest CAMs are hinting at a bit more instability, generally across the southern half of the CWA, which would help support a few strong to marginally severe storms Sunday night into Monday morning. As a result, our southern half of the CWA remains under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms as we head into the work week. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

Drier conditions are expected in the wake of the front as surface high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft take control. A few H5 ripples look to traverse the region through the work week. However, moisture recovery will not be sufficient enough to warrant any mention of showers and storms at this time.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026

Ceilings have been slow to improve today. We have just started seeing MVFR return within the last couple of hours at BHM/EET/TCL/MGM. VFR is likely by mid afternoon. However, AUO is likely to remain MVFR. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings develop tonight into Sunday morning. Confidence was high enough with this update to introduce a mention of fog for all sites. Greatest chances will be at AUO/MGM as they both saw plentiful rainfall this morning. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Continued rain chances through the weekend will help keep min RH values generally above 50%. Drier air returns on Monday in the wake of a cold front with min RH values falling to 30-40% by Tuesday afternoon. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 55 82 57 77 / 0 20 30 20 Anniston 58 81 58 77 / 10 20 30 30 Birmingham 60 82 61 78 / 10 20 40 20 Tuscaloosa 61 83 61 79 / 10 30 40 30 Calera 60 83 61 80 / 20 30 40 30 Auburn 62 80 63 79 / 50 30 50 50 Montgomery 61 81 62 80 / 30 30 50 40 Troy 62 81 62 80 / 40 50 50 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.