textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

- Dry conditions and comfortable mornings will persist through mid-week.

- Look for increasing chances of showers and storms starting Friday afternoon and continuing through Monday, 2 to 3 inches of rainfall are expected with isolated higher amounts near 4 inches.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

This evening, surface ridging is situated across the East Coast and centered over VA/PA. In the upper levels, there is a weak ridge across Mexico into East TX and LA pinned between a digging low over AZ into the Desert Southwest and a large trough that extends down the Atlantic Seaboard including a weak low over FL and weak flow over AL. For today after a cool start in the middle 50s to the lower 60s, we will creep back upward today across Central AL with most locations topping out in the lower 90s. This warming trend will continue through Friday with warm flow off of the Gulf. The humidity will still be on the low side again on Wednesday but a little higher than what was observed on Tuesday. Our further eastward surface ridge is setting up a southeast to south low level flow into AL for the rest of this week with onshore moisture return and increasing dew points. Moisture will need to recover a bit before we can expect any significant rain chances. Very low rain chances return by late Thursday afternoon across the southern counties.

More substantial chances hold off until this weekend ahead of an approaching front. There is a medium to high chance of this front stalling/moving very slowly. This will yield chances for some much needed rainfall Friday, over the weekend and continuing into the beginning of next week. At this time, 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is most likely across much of Central Alabama before all is said and done Friday through Monday, but we can't rule out a few isolated higher amounts as high as 4 inches. The higher rain chances will also help to hamper the warm up from progressing further over the weekend. Guidance is indicating that we should get enough of a push in the upper levels to get the surface front through on Monday so it can usher in some cooler readings back into the area for the first half of next week.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will persist through the first half of the week with light winds. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon will fall into the upper 20s through the 30s percent range across the region. Humidity values will increase for the second half of the week as southerly flow returns. Rain chances return late this week and increase over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 90 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 91 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 94 66 94 68 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 91 65 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 Auburn 88 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 91 67 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 Troy 91 67 90 67 / 0 0 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.