textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

- Thunderstorms: A brief pattern shift will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm activity through today. Some of this rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Current cloud activity somewhat resembles something post-frontal given the movement, and clear slot along the Mississippi Delta region. While no true cold front has moved through the region, the weak trough overhead has deepened slightly more, allowing for this SW to NE movement. Given our region's proximity to this trough, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected today, generally moving west to east. Given unseasonably high precipitable water (PWAT) values, confidence is high that rainfall rates this afternoon will be moderate to heavy. Thankfully, severe weather and flash flooding concerns remain limited, with most of this rain activity remaining nothing more than beneficial.

Upper-level ridging will quickly build in over the region by Sunday, returning rain chances to the summertime, diurnally driven pattern we've been stuck in for these many weeks. Due to the ridge, rain chances will remain low for most of the next week (<10%), and afternoon highs will quickly begin to rebound into the low to mid-90s

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today, as a weak trough continues to move through the region. Confidence in coverage is low, but high enough to maintain PROB30 groups at all terminals through 13/02z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated for the rest of this TAF period as upper-level ridging builds in strength.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast past Monday. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by late next week if significant rainfall does not fall by then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 93 68 96 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 70 90 68 94 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 72 93 71 95 / 30 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 72 95 71 98 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 71 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0 Auburn 71 91 71 94 / 10 10 0 0 Montgomery 71 93 72 95 / 10 10 0 0 Troy 70 93 70 95 / 0 10 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.