textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

- Flooding: A Flood Watch is in effect for much of Central Alabama through this evening due to a high chance for additional heavy rains falling on already saturated soils. Flash flooding will be possible along and south of the I-22 corridor, stretching eastward to the Birmingham Metro area and the I-20 corridor.

- Heat: Heat index readings approaching 100 degrees are forecast beginning Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

A wet pattern will persist through early next week. A warm front, currently stretched across the northern region, will drift northward through Sunday, maintaining a moist, southerly flow. Westerly flow aloft will likely drive multiple impulses across the front, triggering several MCS systems in addition to typical summertime thunderstorms. Development will continue this afternoon, particularly along the front and across the southern portions of the area, where the highest flood risk exists due to training storms. We will continue monitoring model trends to determine if extending the current flash flood watch or issuing a new one for Sunday is necessary. Please remain alert for potential flood advisories and warnings.

A west to northwest flow pattern establishes itself next week, characterized by elongated ridging over Mexico and the Four Corners, while a series of longwave troughs rotate across the Upper Plains and Great Lakes regions. Consequently, higher than normal rain chances will persist through much of the work week, as another front approaches the area and then stalls once again. Mesoscale details remain uncertain; however, we will monitor for potential MCS activity given the synoptic orientation. Temperatures will increase over the weekend and into early next week. While heat indices are not expected to reach advisory criteria, they will approach the 100-degree mark on Monday and Tuesday.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

VFR conditions have returned in the wake of this afternoon's convection. Continued with a mention of VCSH for all sites this evening as some isolated activity is expected in the wake of the earlier storms. Brief MVFR ceilings are likely with any passing shower over the next few hours. Confidence is low in this activity impacting any particular site so have left any mention out of the TAFs. Ceilings will begin to fall after 06Z with IFR expected for much of the night, eventually improving through the mid morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms return during the afternoon hours on Sunday.

Note: Metars from AUO are coming through but observations are missing data. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED has been added for this set.

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FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 88 73 88 / 20 40 30 70 Anniston 69 87 72 88 / 20 40 20 60 Birmingham 71 87 74 89 / 20 50 30 60 Tuscaloosa 71 86 74 90 / 20 70 30 50 Calera 70 88 73 91 / 20 60 30 50 Auburn 70 86 72 88 / 30 50 30 30 Montgomery 71 86 73 90 / 30 80 30 30 Troy 71 86 73 90 / 30 60 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee- Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker.