textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 503 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026

- Cooler but still at or above normal temperatures are expected behind the front Thursday and Friday. - Very high (90-100%) rain chances are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this time the severe threat remains very low due to very limited instability.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1030 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026

The cold front is now south of the area. A shower or two could still pass through the far southeast, but not much in accumulation is expected. Temperatures will continue to drop off through the night with even some freezing temperatures in the far north by sunrise. A "cooler" day on Thursday, but plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will be in the 60s across much of the area, with low relative humidities in place by the afternoon. By Friday the winds will begin to shift to the south/southwest as the next trough moves closer to the area. Look for highs to respond substantially on Friday despite the increase in clouds.

The next southern stream shortwave will move across the south over the weekend. Still getting mixed guidance with one grouping showing an open trough, while another grouping is a closed off low. Will continue to hedge the thinking to more of a southern open trough as it swings through the region. Showers may begin Saturday as the warm front lifts northward, followed be a line of showers and some storms late Saturday night/Sunday morning. The southern track of the shortwave and surface low shown by the majority of ensemble clusters/deterministic models typically suggests surface-based instability remaining confined closer to the coast. We will need to keep an eye on the exact track as a further north trek would result in more instability. While we continue to monitor, probabilities for severe weather remain fairly low at this time, with instability mostly showing up behind the convection near the upper low center. Behind the system, above normal to well above normal temperatures are expected next week.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026

VFR and light winds continue through this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

RH values drop into the 20 to 30 percent range with some upper teens in the east this afternoon and Friday afternoon, resulting in elevated fire danger, but winds will be light. Another round of rain and perhaps storms will move through over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 62 34 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 62 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 62 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 66 38 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 65 37 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 66 40 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 67 39 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 68 40 71 47 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.