textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026

- A tropical low moving west across the Gulf will maintain low chances (~30%) for showers and storms, primarily across southern Central Alabama.

- A warming trend is expected this week, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s by midweek. Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026

High pressure remains the primary feature across the area this week. A weak easterly flow is supporting fair-weather cumulus development; however, radar remains clear. A weak surface low, centered approximately 125 miles south of the southeastern Louisiana coast, will drift slowly westward. The NHC maintains a low (30%) chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. While Central Alabama will largely remain dry, deeper moisture wrapping around the low supports a low (20%) chance of afternoon showers and storms in southern areas. Most activity will dissipate by sunset, though isolated showers may linger in the far southeast early this evening. Severe weather is unlikely given minimal wind shear, though sufficient instability during peak heating could support an isolated, stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds.

As the work week progresses, an upper-level ridge will expand eastward, steering the tropical low westward across the Gulf. This will result in drier air and increased subsidence, maintaining rain-free conditions for the northern half of the area. Diurnally driven convection will remain possible across southern areas where moisture levels stay elevated. A warming trend is expected, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s by midweek. Heat Advisories are anticipated by Wednesday as heat indices climb to 105-107 degrees.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the entire forecast period. Isolated SHRA/TSRA activity will be closest to AUO this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include any mention in the TAF for this cycle. Light and variable winds will increase to around 6-8 knots out of the southeast through this afternoon. Convection is expected to dissipate by sunset, with calm winds prevailing overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 45% through the work week. Low (~20%) chances for showers and storms will continue daily, generally across our southern areas. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next week as winds remain light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 94 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 70 92 71 94 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 73 93 74 95 / 0 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 74 95 74 97 / 0 10 0 10 Calera 72 93 73 95 / 10 10 0 10 Auburn 72 91 73 92 / 10 10 0 10 Montgomery 74 95 74 96 / 10 10 0 10 Troy 72 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.