textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026

- There is a low chance, around 20 percent, for a few showers and thunderstorms across the southern third of Central Alabama this afternoon through early evening, followed by drier and slightly cooler conditions overnight.

- There is a low chance, about 20 percent, for some shower and thunderstorm activity across the eastern portion of Central Alabama on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 133 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026

A longwave positive-tilted trough is moving southeast over the Arklatex Region at this time and is supporting a surface low pressure area that is moving east along the Southern Louisiana Coastline. A surface cold front was analyzed just south of the Interstate 20 corridor late this morning while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms were developing to the south of the forecast area. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to persist with the approach of the trough this afternoon and evening. Low, about 20 percent, chance for showers and few thunderstorms will exist across the southern third of the area through mid evening. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast.

The mid-level trough moves southeast of the area on Tuesday while surface high pressure builds into the region from the northwest and the surface cold front advances southeast across the Central Florida Peninsula. Overnight lows will range from the low 50s far north to the low 60s far southeast.

A northwest flow pattern will become established aloft over the area Wednesday through Thursday as a weak disturbance moves over the area on Wednesday. Enough support will exist for a low, around 20%, chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity across the eastern portion of the area during the day as a surface cold front moves in from the northwest. Lows will be in the 50s through late week while highs will be in the 80s on Thursday, then will be in the 70s on Friday as the cold front stalls south of the area and then returns northward as a warm front during the day.

A more zonal flow pattern aloft is progged through the weekend and into the next work week while temperatures are forecast to increase across the area with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s Saturday with a few spots nearing 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday while overnight lows moderate into the 60s across much of the area by Sunday morning. A few disturbances will move east over the area while higher temperatures and increasing moisture content in the lower levels will provide enough instability for some very isolated, 15-30 percent, shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame that may provide some temporary relief from the higher temperatures and heat index values across the area.

05

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026

A longwave positive-tilted trough is moving southeast over the Arklatex Region at this time and is supporting a surface low pressure area that is moving east along the Southern Louisiana Coastline. A surface cold front was analyzed just south of the Interstate 20 corridor late this morning with north surface winds from 5-10 kts observed across the forecast area. VFR conditions are expected across the area through this cycle, though mid to high clouds will persist today and tonight before decreasing through the day Tuesday. There is high confidence in dry conditions for the northern terminals while MGM and ANB will have low chances, around 20 percent, for a passing shower or storm this afternoon into early evening. Dry conditions will return areawide later this evening and persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

05

FIRE WEATHER

A surface cold front will move through the forecast area by this evening, until then there will be a low, about 20%, chance for some hower and thunderstorm activity across the southern counties. Relative Humidity values will decrease Tuesday afternoon with readings from the low 40 percent range across the northwest to values in the mid 50 percent range southeast. Afternoon relative humidity values Wednesday will ragne from the mid 30 percent range across much of the northwest to readings near 50 percent far east as dry conditions persist. A few showers and storms, about a 20 percent chance, is forecast on Thursday as a cold front briefly moves into the area from the north but then returns northward as a warm front Friday, resulting in increasing humidity values along with rising temperatures as highs approach 90 across the area by late weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 51 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 54 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 57 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 57 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 57 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 61 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 61 81 60 83 / 10 0 0 10 Troy 61 81 60 84 / 10 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.