textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

- Thunderstorms: Strong to severe storms are possible through the weekend. These storms will be capable of producing localized gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

A closed low centered near Nashville, Tennessee, will track slowly southeast. This system, interacting with a weakening boundary, will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with the highest coverage focused along and south of I- 20. Sufficient instability may allow a few storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds as the primary threat.

On Monday, the low will meander southeastward, stalling near the Tennessee River Valley during the morning hours. With Gulf moisture remaining in place across the region, it will act as a catalyst for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday, keeping the threat for localized heavy rainfall elevated. By Wednesday, the low will shift west as high pressure builds off the East Coast. Expect a return to typical summertime diurnal convection, persisting through the weekend. Under this strengthening ridge, afternoon highs will gradually climb into the low to mid-90s by next Saturday.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

Widespread showers and storms will remain in the forecast for most of the next 48-hours. However, given the scattered nature in the coverage, confidence is only high enough to carry PROB30 groups for TSRA at this time. Reduced CIGs are expected past 13/09, with all terminals carrying IFR or LIFR conditions through 13/16z. As widespread showers and thunderstorms get going tomorrow afternoon, look for additional PROB30 groups for TSRA past 13/19z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

A moist air mass will persist through early next week, with winds remaining under 10 mph. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday as a weak system stalls over the region. No fire weather concerns are anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 84 68 83 / 60 90 70 80 Anniston 71 84 69 83 / 70 80 80 90 Birmingham 72 85 70 84 / 70 80 70 90 Tuscaloosa 72 86 70 84 / 70 70 70 90 Calera 71 87 69 85 / 80 80 70 90 Auburn 72 84 71 83 / 80 70 70 90 Montgomery 72 86 70 85 / 80 70 60 80 Troy 71 85 69 84 / 60 80 60 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.