textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026

- Thunderstorms: Organized thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through Wednesday. A few of these storms may produce localized gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026

The closed low remains centered over central Tennessee, maintaining a slow southeastward trajectory. It is expected to meander into north Georgia by late this afternoon and linger for the next 24 to 36 hours. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall associated with this feature will maintain below-normal temperatures through Wednesday. By Tuesday night, the low should slide more westward into central Alabama as a ridge develops over the East Coast. This pattern will support organized precipitation through Wednesday, with a transition to more typical diurnal summertime convection by Thursday.

Guidance diverges regarding the ridge's evolution heading into the weekend. Some long-range solutions suggest the ridge will build sufficiently to push afternoon highs into the low to mid- 90s. Alternatively, other guidance keeps the ridge suppressed by a developing deep trough over New England, keeping temperatures slightly cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s. Regardless, the outcome for the upcoming weekend appears to be a continuation of hot, humid conditions.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will slide through the region through this afternoon and evening. VCSH has been included at all sites to account for the proximity of the upper low as it meanders south. Additionally, a PROB30 group for 21-03Z was added to each TAF to account for uncertainty in the timing and coverage of potential convective activity. Models maintain ample low-level moisture, supporting a trend toward IFR ceilings at most sites overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Moist conditions will persist through mid-week, keeping MinRH values well above critical thresholds. Widespread rainfall is anticipated as a weak system remains over the region, precluding any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 83 69 86 / 60 80 40 70 Anniston 70 83 70 86 / 70 80 50 70 Birmingham 70 83 70 87 / 70 80 50 60 Tuscaloosa 71 83 70 87 / 70 80 60 60 Calera 70 84 70 89 / 70 80 60 60 Auburn 71 83 71 86 / 60 80 60 50 Montgomery 70 85 70 88 / 50 80 60 50 Troy 69 84 69 88 / 40 80 50 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.