textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week, with the greatest chance for heavy rainfall in northwest areas.

- Muggy conditions and high temperatures will create a minor to moderate daily heat risk across Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing off to our west ahead of an approaching cold front. CAMs continue to hint at this activity dissipating as it nears the MS/AL stateline. If any of this activity does make it into the area, it will be across our northwest areas. The aforementioned front will stall across the state tomorrow and linger through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will guide several H5 impulses through the region. This will lead to elevated chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. Each day will feature diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. The majority of this activity will be pulse-like storms as shear profiles are not too impressive. Greatest chances each day will be across our northern areas where low level moisture convergence will be maximized along the stalled boundary. The boundary retreats back to the north over the weekend, leaving a plume of moist air in place across the region. Bouts of H5 energy will continue to stream across the southeast, leading to increased chances for showers and storms daily. Select forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated atmospheric column and a deep warm cloud depth. This would help promote periods of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts have trended up recently with 2-3" forecast across our northwest areas. Areas back to our southeast will see around 1" or less. With that said, pockets of higher amounts are likely, especially if these storms turn into efficient rainfall producers. Latest LREF guidance suggests a low (20-30%) chance for amounts over 3".

Increased cloud cover will knock a few degrees off our highs for the rest of the week with temperatures generally settling into the mid 80s daily. Those across our southeastern areas will remain near 90. Lows look to fall into the mid 60s for most. Muggy and warm conditions will lead to a minor to moderate heat risk daily across Central Alabama. This would primarily affect those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 forecast. Light and variable winds tonight ahead of our next system will become south- southwest 5-10kts during the day. A moderate chance for showers is anticipated for Wednesday afternoon as convection will move in/develop ahead of a surface boundary. Only confident enough to mention TS for AUB in the afternoon, will hold off at the other terminals for now with only an SHRA mention.

08

FIRE WEATHER

A stalled cold front and continued bouts of upper level energy will keep rain chances elevated through the end of the week. MinRH values will generally remain over 50% daily. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 64 84 64 / 60 50 70 70 Anniston 86 64 84 65 / 60 50 50 50 Birmingham 87 67 85 67 / 20 50 60 60 Tuscaloosa 87 68 86 68 / 20 50 60 70 Calera 89 66 86 66 / 20 40 50 50 Auburn 89 68 87 68 / 50 30 30 20 Montgomery 89 68 88 68 / 40 40 30 20 Troy 89 68 88 67 / 50 40 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.