textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026

- A line of gusty showers and a few thunderstorms will move through Central Alabama Sunday morning, while a few strong storms may re-develop Sunday afternoon.

- At this time, the severe threat remains very low with these both of these waves due to very limited instability.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026

This evening, surface ridging is weakening and shifting to the Atlantic Seaboard. There is a surface low over the TX Panhandle with a stationary boundary stretching SEWD from it across LA, into the eastern Gulf, and into S FL. The low over the TX Panhandle is expected to move EWD Sat into Sun across OK/AR and into N MS by Sun morning. While the boundary may move back NEWD some as a warm front. It is not expected to make major progress into C AL ahead of the front.

In the upper levels, a low pressure trough is digging over the Rockies with weak NW flow into E Conus. The low should continue to the E on Sat extending from the Plains into TX with zonal flow into AL. While overall moisture will slowly increase, and we should see some high cloudiness move into the region tonight into Sat, rain chances will be minimal during the day across C AL. Some showers will move into the area Sat evening, but the bulk of the activity should hold off starting until late Sat night. The upper wave will move across TX Sat with our flow becoming SW by Sat night.

The upper system will help to usher the surface low and front toward MS/AL by Sun morning. Rain showers along with a few thunderstorms will occur with this system. While we will have some limited instability and forcing with the front for a few thunderstorms and some gusts at times, the overall instability will be somewhat lacking for severe. The best chances for beneficial rain will be during the day on Sun, in particular Sun morning. Guidance has trended a little lower with overall QPF, now closer to 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain across C AL before the system moves out. A few showers may linger behind the front late Sun until the upper system is completely through.

This front is not expected to have a big cold surge behind it as the main energy is W to E, but it will bring drier weather Monday and on through mid week. Will look for NW upper flow behind the front on Mon with the flow turning zonal for most of the remainder of the extended as upper ridging becoming elongated across the Gulf. Rain chances returning by Thu night ahead of another front. Well above normal temps will be present for next week.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 114 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026

Through Sunday night:

Overall no major changes to our forecast this weekend, as available CAM runs so far match previous expectations. A shortwave may bring some light rain/sprinkles to our northwest counties tomorrow morning, but otherwise the daytime hours on Saturday should be mostly dry. A potent southern stream shortwave will reach Texas by Saturday, eventually becoming a closed low as it moves into Alabama on Sunday. A surface low will deepen slightly across the ArkLaMiss on Saturday night, beginning to occlude as it moves across Central Alabama on Sunday, while high pressure remain centered over the western Atlantic extending westward to the East Coast. A 50kt LLJ will move across Alabama during the morning hours on Sunday, aiding in the development and maintenance of a strongly forced squall line. This squall line develops over the ArkLaTex Saturday evening, and should move quickly eastward across Alabama mainly during the morning hours on Sunday. This squall line is still expected to weaken by the time it reaches Alabama, as it out-runs the narrow instability axis and encounters lingering wedging associated with high pressure to our east. This will maintain a southeasterly component to winds at the surface. Additionally, showers developing ahead of the line due to isentropic lift falling into the dry and stable air mass would only serve to enhance the stable air mass with some in situ CAD effects. Temperatures will mainly be in the 50s as the line moves through, with some lower 60s in some of our far southern counties. This suggest the severe threat is quite low. Mainly expect a line of gusty showers with a few embedded thunderstorms, which may cause sporadic weak trees/limbs to fall. Will continue to monitor for any unexpected increases in instability.

As the upper low moves in behind the squall line, 500mb temps drop to -16C, resulting in steepening lapse rates. This will help maintain fairly widespread, showery precipitation. Guidance does indicate the potential for some weak instability to develop in the mid-level dry slot. If this occurs, shear will be much weaker than earlier, but if updrafts can become sustained a couple strong storms with small hail and gusty winds may occur. Threat for an isolated severe storm (hail/wind) in the afternoon is nonzero but also very low. This redevelopment is very conditional, and based on past experience I'm more than a little skeptical that we will see much destabilization in the wake of the morning rain given that it's still mid February.

Monday through Thursday:

Next week, a strong mid and upper-level quasi-zonal jet will move through the center of the country, flooding much of the CONUS with milder Pacific air. Strong flat subtropical ridging will develop over the Gulf with a strong EML across much of the southern CONUS. This will be a favorable pattern for well above normal temperatures across Central Alabama and mainly dry conditions, with an upper air pattern more reminiscent of mid to late May. This may cause worsening drought conditions. Will note the potential for a stronger lower pressure system moving through the Midwest late in the week, but at this time moisture looks quite limited with this system and the stronger height falls remain to our north.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026

VFR conditions will persist through this cycle. Expect mostly clear skies with light low-level winds overnight from the northeast to east. High and mid-level clouds will increase through the day Saturday, initially scattered by late morning then becoming broken at most sites by mid to late afternoon with lowest bases west near TCL. Low-level winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 kts.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture begins to increase today, but minimum relative humidity values will still be mainly in the 25 to 35 percent range. 20 foot winds today will be southeasterly 5 to 10 mph with gusts of around 10 to 15 mph. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will move through the area late Saturday night into Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 35 64 48 66 / 0 0 80 100 Anniston 39 64 50 66 / 0 0 70 100 Birmingham 43 66 53 68 / 0 10 80 100 Tuscaloosa 44 70 54 69 / 0 10 90 100 Calera 41 68 52 69 / 0 10 80 100 Auburn 43 66 52 66 / 0 0 60 100 Montgomery 43 71 54 71 / 0 0 80 100 Troy 43 71 53 71 / 0 0 70 100

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.