textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 308 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama for both today and Tuesday in the afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 308 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026

Scattered convection with frequent lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds at times is being noted across the north central portions of Central Alabama ATTM. We have a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday afternoon and evening. The main threat is strong downburst winds, as well as heavy rain. The upper ridge of late is now confined to portions of Texas, Louisiana and Mexico. At the same time, an upper shortwave will continue to move EWD across the Dakotas and toward the Great Lakes late by Tuesday. On Tuesday, guidance weakens/deteriorates the upper low over the Gulf Coast. However, rain chances continue for Tuesday, but instead will be focusing on activity ahead of a cold front that should move through the area by Wednesday. Guidance continues to have a pattern shift taking this front through the area and bringing much welcome more "normal" temperature readings for the second half of September into Central Alabama for the latter half of the week and into this weekend. There is a medium chance of seeing a few 50s in our northern counties starting on Friday and into the weekend, with lower to middle 60s elsewhere.

08

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 201 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026

More convection is expected this afternoon and evening with gusty winds at times with an unstable airmass. Have PROB30s to TEMPOs at all sites for this afternoon and into tonight for portions of the area. Reduced VSBYs may occur with convection and later as well depending on how much rain occurs at each site. VFR conditions are generally expected outside of convection.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the middle of this week, with light winds outside of convection. Look for drying toward the end of the week, with very minimal to no rain chances Thursday and on into the weekend. MinRHs will dip into the 35-45% range in the afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 92 67 89 / 50 60 50 30 Anniston 70 91 69 88 / 50 60 50 30 Birmingham 72 93 70 90 / 50 50 40 20 Tuscaloosa 71 95 70 93 / 50 50 30 10 Calera 70 94 70 92 / 50 50 40 20 Auburn 71 91 70 89 / 20 50 40 20 Montgomery 72 93 72 92 / 30 50 40 20 Troy 70 93 70 92 / 20 40 30 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.