textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place this week with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are forecast for the remainder of this week, with localized higher amounts possible.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026

Only light shower activity if any is present on the radar at this hour across portions of Central Alabama. We are in between waves. The stalled boundary that was present earlier has fizzled out this evening. We had roughly anywhere from a tenth to half inch of rain today across the northern areas to 1 to 2 inches across a good chunk of the southern two thirds of Central Alabama. This rain will help to set the stage and saturate soils for more rain to add for Thursday. With our boundary gone, this will allow for tropical moisture to increase across the state on Wednesday in advance of Potential TC1 that is currently centered off the South Texas coast. This system is expected to move along the Southeast Texas coast Wednesday. While we will still have rain chances Wednesday across Central Alabama, amounts should be fairly light and manageable. The potential for heavy rain will be greatest on Thursday and Friday. On Thursday we will be close enough to Potential TC1 for increased rain coverage as its center moves into Louisiana. Remember that moisture and rain from tropical moisture systems can reach rather far from the east of the center. High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves into the area and interacts with what is left of the tropical activity. For the remainder of this week, QPF shows roughly 3 to 6 inches of additional rainfall to what we have already received, with a few locally higher amounts. We will continue with a flood watch for much of the area for Wednesday and Thursday. While the front goes through sometime Friday, rain chances stick around for the weekend. This will result from the boundary fizzling and onshore flow returning. Temperatures will slowly creep back up, and zonal upper flow disturbances enhanced by daytime heating will contribute to diurnal convection for over the weekend into the first part of next week.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected to linger most of the night under this tropical airmass, before slowly mixing past 17/15z. Terminals will gradually climb into MVFR category, and then VFR category past 17/18z. Additional showers are possible tomorrow, but confidence was only high enough to introduce PROB30 groups at this time. From there, low CIGs will return overnight, with all terminals experiencing reduced flight categories past 18/03z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as a front stalls across the region. We will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 73 82 71 / 30 40 90 60 Anniston 86 73 80 71 / 40 30 90 70 Birmingham 87 72 81 71 / 40 40 90 70 Tuscaloosa 87 74 82 73 / 50 60 90 60 Calera 88 73 82 71 / 60 40 90 70 Auburn 83 73 79 72 / 80 20 100 90 Montgomery 85 73 81 72 / 70 20 100 90 Troy 83 73 80 72 / 70 20 90 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.