textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026

- Dry conditions will continue, with the only chance of rainfall this week coming Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026

Alabama remains in a pattern of northwest flow aloft, which will last through this week. A shortwave passing through on Monday will usher in a cold front during the morning hours, with surface winds shifting from southwesterly to northerly behind the front. Low clouds are expected during the morning and midday hours, especially across the northern half of the state, before lifting and clearing by late afternoon. This front still appears to be a dry front, although a few sprinkles can't be ruled out.

Another shortwave will move through Tuesday afternoon, this time bringing a chance for showers across Central Alabama. Rain chances begin Tuesday afternoon and last into Wednesday morning, with areas north of I-59/20 and/or east of I-65 seeing the greatest chances of rainfall. Amounts are expected to be light, generally less than 0.25".

Temperatures will rebound into the 80s Thursday and Friday as an upper-level ridge slides east from the Desert Southwest into Texas. A cold front is forecast to slide through Central Alabama Friday night, knocking high temperatures down into the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend, with lows in the 40s. Model guidance currently suggests that this front will lack precipitation by the time it reaches Central Alabama, with forecast rain chances currently staying to the north across Tennessee. This will continue to be watched throughout the week in the case that forecast changes become necessary.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026

We will continue to see some LLWS just ahead of the front. This cold front will pass through the north by 13 to 14z and then MGM 16z, with MVFR cigs currently expected at BHM, TCL, and EET for a couple of hours beyond the front passing through. Went ahead and continued down to MGM with the broken deck. Surface winds will shift from SW to NW or NNW during the course of the day, gusting to 15-20 kts behind the front.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will be in the 30-45% range this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Northerly 20 ft winds up to 12 mph today behind a cold front. Some light rainfall is possible Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday morning, especially across eastern Central Alabama. Given the warming trend and lack of forecast rainfall toward the end of the week, fire weather concerns are likely to increase, with a medium chance for highlighted fire weather concerns by next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 42 66 46 / 0 0 20 40 Anniston 75 43 65 47 / 0 0 20 40 Birmingham 73 46 69 51 / 0 0 20 40 Tuscaloosa 76 46 72 52 / 0 0 20 30 Calera 76 44 71 50 / 0 0 20 40 Auburn 79 49 65 49 / 0 0 10 40 Montgomery 80 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 82 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.