textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 528 AM CST WED NOV 11 2026

- Mid-Week Rain Chance: A system will bring a chance for a few light rain showers Wednesday into early Thursday morning.

- Late-Week Cold Front & Freeze Risk: A strong cold front on Thursday will usher in gusty winds and much colder air, leading to a widespread frost and freeze heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1008 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a shortwave moving across Texas towards the southeast US. A batch of showers and storms can be seen moving along the Texas coast towards the Louisiana border. If you look off to our northwest, you can see a stronger upper low beginning to dive across the Northern Plains. As the shortwave moves our way through the day tomorrow, we will see a gradual moistening of the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. We will continue with a low chance for light showers as this shortwave scoots through. Based on forecast soundings, this could all very well be virga as the lower levels remain dry. The northern trough quickly follows the southern shortwave, moving across the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night through Thursday. This system will kick a cold front our way late Wednesday through Thursday morning. We will continue to carry low to medium chances for showers along the boundary with the best chances coming across our northern areas. There may be just enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm across our northern areas, but severe storms are not expected at this time. A much cooler air mass moves in behind the front, with highs in the 50s and lows down into the mid 30s. A secondary surge of high pressure brings a surge of even colder air to Central Alabama over the weekend which will bring high chances for the first freeze of the season across northern portions of the area. Latest NBM probabilities maintain a 60-90% chance for freezing temps across the northern half of the CWA. We start to warm back up early next week with highs rebounding into the low 60s by Tuesday.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST WED NOV 11 2026

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours. Batches of mid- to high-level clouds will move across the region today and tonight. There is a chance for spotty virga, sprinkles, or brief light showers. Confidence of occurrence at any given terminal is low at this time; we'll monitor radar trends, but category impacts are very unlikely. Calm winds this morning become westerly between 5-10 knots from ~16z onward.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture increases on Wednesday ahead of a cold front with a few light rain showers at times Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. We will need to keep an eye on Thursday for increased fire weather concerns as northwesterly winds increase in the wake of the front. Drier air and cooler temps return this weekend with min RHs in the 30-40% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 48 65 34 / 10 30 0 0 Anniston 73 50 65 36 / 10 30 0 0 Birmingham 73 49 64 37 / 10 30 0 0 Tuscaloosa 75 49 66 36 / 10 20 0 0 Calera 73 51 65 38 / 10 20 0 0 Auburn 71 54 68 39 / 10 10 0 0 Montgomery 73 55 71 39 / 20 0 0 0 Troy 71 54 70 38 / 20 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.