textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1025 PM CST THU NOV 5 2026

- Fog: There's low to medium chances for patchy dense fog in valleys and along rivers late tonight into early Friday morning.

- Frost and Freeze Potential: Chances are medium to high for frost development across portions of the area Sunday and Monday mornings, especially across the far northern counties and the Black Belt. There will be a low chance for a light freeze in the typically colder locations.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1025 PM CST THU NOV 5 2026

The cold front remains over our far SE counties this evening and will continue to push southeastward overnight. Dense fog has developed right along and ahead of the front, and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Pike and Barbour Counties. Some improvement is expected behind the front, but with light winds, low dew point depressions, and recent rainfall, at least patchy ground fog is expected to develop across the forecast area overnight into Friday morning. A shortwave trough will also move through the area but only produce some high clouds, while an upper low moves southeastward over the eastern Great Lakes. A secondary, dry cold front associated with this feature will move through the area on Friday. This will result in cooler lows Friday night, but winds should stay up enough to prevent any frost concerns. A brief shot of slightly below normal high temperatures is then expected for Saturday. Surface high pressure will result in favorable radiational cooling conditions Saturday and Sunday nights. Chances for frost are medium to high across the far northern counties and Black Belt, with a low chance for a light freeze in the typically colder locations. Frost advisories will likely be needed when this gets closer.

No significant weather systems are forecast through early next week. The forecast area will generally be between the subtropical and polar jet streams. A southern stream shortwave does move across the area during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. This may squeeze out some virga/sprinkles/very light rain, but low-level moisture return will be lacking and probabilities of measurable rain will remain at 10 percent or less. A strengthening ridge across the western and central CONUS will lead to amplification of a longwave trough across the eastern CONUS later in the week.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST THU NOV 5 2026

Guidance offers some mixed signals on fog development overnight with the RRFS being most bullish. Latest REFS guidance indicates low to medium chances of patchy fog developing near the northern terminals. Given light winds, low dew point depressions, and recent rainfall, TEMPO mentions for MVFR visibilities at EET/TCL/MGM will be maintained around sunrise. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow after any morning fog, with northerly winds around 7 to 10 kts.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

A dry cold front will move through the area today, bringing northerly winds and cooler and drier conditions. Afternoon minimum RH values will mainly be in the 35 to 45 percent range Friday and Saturday, dropping into the 30 to 40 percent range Sunday and Monday. 20ft winds gusts should mainly remain less than 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 47 74 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 50 74 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 73 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 48 75 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 51 73 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 58 75 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 55 76 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 57 76 48 68 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for the following counties: Barbour-Pike.