textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026

- Humidity will push heat indices into the 95-100 degree range mid-week, creating a moderate heat risk across Central Alabama.

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Thursday; activity will become more diurnally driven by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a mid to upper level low churning across Central Georgia. Drier air can be seen across much of Alabama with the exception of a swath of deeper moisture wrapping around the low closer to the GA/AL stateline. GOES TPW supports this with PWATs around 1.6-1.7". This will help maintain a low to medium (20-50%) chance for showers and storms this afternoon/evening and again Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, the low will begin to drift north, eventually being absorbed by another approaching upper level trough moving across the Ohio Valley. A more typical summertime pattern sets up the weekend with weak flow aloft, leading to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms into early next week.

As dew point depressions narrow and condensation pressure deficits fall to 3-5mb, there is a 20-45% chance for patchy fog early Wednesday morning . Areas that receive some rain later on this afternoon and evening will have the greatest chance to have some visibility restrictions out the door tomorrow.

Temperatures begin to warm back up through the week with highs rebounding into the low to mid 90s tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. Humid conditions will keep max heat indices in the 95-100 degree range which will pose a moderate heat risk for much of Central Alabama.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026

Lingering showers will dissipate shortly after 00z. Lingering showers will dissipate shortly after 00z; no significant impacts to TAF sites are expected. Light winds tonight will support fog development early Wednesday morning, particularly at sites that received rainfall today. Winds will generally be out of the west- northwest from 5-10 knots through this TAF cycle. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for BHM, EET, and AUO on Wednesday. With moderate confidence (30-50%) in convective development at TAF locations, a PROB30 group was introduced for BHM, EET, and AUO after 18Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions will help keep minRH values generally above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected daily, with the greatest chances east of I- 65. Elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated through the period, with high confidence.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 89 71 91 / 20 60 10 30 Anniston 70 88 71 90 / 20 60 10 40 Birmingham 72 89 72 91 / 20 40 10 20 Tuscaloosa 72 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20 Calera 71 90 72 92 / 20 30 10 30 Auburn 72 86 73 88 / 20 40 10 30 Montgomery 72 92 73 93 / 10 20 10 20 Troy 71 91 71 91 / 10 20 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.