textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 658 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts possible through Saturday.

- Heat: Heat index reading will approach 100 degrees beginning Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026

While the cold front continues to sag southward through the north half of the region, the main focus this morning has been along a boundary across our south. Activity picked up this morning and really has not let up. Flooding has been ongoing for a good portion of the southeastern counties. The cold front will eventually catch the boundary and become stalled along the Gulf Coast region this weekend, so rain chances have trended upward for at least the south. There is a low probability of needing to continue the flood watch for Saturday, but if it is needed it would most likely be reduced to just the far south.

A west to northwest flow pattern sets up next week, with elongated ridging over Mexico and the Four Corners, while a series of longwave troughs rotate across the Upper Plains and Great Lakes regions. Consequently, rain chances continue through at least the middle of the week, particularly on Tuesday as another front moves into the area. The finer details remain uncertain at this time, but we will need to keep an eye on potential MCS activity as well given the synoptic orientation. Temperatures will also increase over the weekend and into the first of next week. While not approaching advisory criteria, we will approach the 100 degree mark for heat index readings. Drink plenty of fluids and use caution if you will be outside for a prolonged period of time, especially Monday and Tuesday.

16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026

Precipitation coverage is diminishing this evening, with isolated slow-moving storms ongoing north/northwest of TCL and BHM. Given the slow storm movement, confidence is low that this activity will hold together long enough to affect the terminals, though amendments will be issued if necessary. IFR ceilings and patchy fog are expected to redevelop across the area tonight, persisting through the morning hours. PROB30 groups are included to account for additional TSRA development tomorrow. Outside of thunderstorm activity, a return to VFR is expected by tomorrow afternoon.

Note: Metars from AUO are coming through but observations are missing data. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED has been added for this set.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 86 69 86 / 10 40 20 80 Anniston 68 85 70 86 / 30 50 20 80 Birmingham 70 85 70 86 / 30 60 30 80 Tuscaloosa 72 84 71 87 / 50 90 30 80 Calera 70 86 70 88 / 50 80 30 80 Auburn 72 84 70 85 / 40 70 20 80 Montgomery 72 83 71 86 / 40 90 40 80 Troy 71 84 70 86 / 30 90 40 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery- Perry-Pike-Russell-Sumter-Tallapoosa.