textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026

- A level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast for western and northern parts of Central Alabama this afternoon and evening.

- Rain chances increase today through Friday, with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026

It's another hot day across Central Alabama, with high temperatures expected in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. We are currently watching an MCS feature over West Tennessee drop toward the south-southeast. This is associated with a shortwave at the 500 mb level that is moving around the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over New Mexico and Arizona. This typical northwest flow pattern routinely brings these MCS features into Central Alabama, and today looks to be a similar setup. Midday mesoanalysis shows a steep instability gradient from NE Mississippi to Middle Tennessee, with >2500 and >3500 MLCAPE and SBCAPE across NE Mississippi. This is driving the current MCS to propagate more SSE rather than SE or ESE, as storms entering the more stable region of Middle Tennessee will die off while additional activity is developing on the west side of the MCS and joining in the SSE movement along this instability gradient. A cumulus field developing over the western half of Central Alabama is already promoting the formation of a few showers and storms ahead of the approaching MCS, which we expect to reach Marion and Winston counties by around 3 pm. As the afternoon moves on, we should see some manner of intensification with the MCS, which will pose a damaging wind threat as it moves across the western part of the area.

Activity should diminish before midnight, but Thursday and Friday will again feature elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms. Although no official severe risk area is currently defined, we forecast the greatest potential for thunderstorm activity to be over central and southeastern parts of Central Alabama the next two days. The current forecast trends have lesser rain chances over the weekend and into the beginning of next week, but still 20-30% chances for now each afternoon from Saturday through Tuesday. Most of the rain chances will be concentrated central and southeast, much like Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures continue at a mostly steady state, with nothing out of the ordinary. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s can be expected Thursday through next Tuesday, with heat indices reaching to low 100s at times.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026

Confidence remains high in afternoon showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage with an approaching MCS. Continued to maintain TEMPO groups at TCL, BHM, EET for TSRA, and PROB30 groups at MGM and AUO for TSRA as well. Thunderstorm activity should diminish before midnight in most areas. VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the evening, outside of thunderstorm activity. Some guidance is hinting at lowered vis tomorrow morning. Confidence is currently too low to include in the TAF, but that will be revisited in subsequent TAF issuances.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the next several days. Increasing dew points and an approaching weather system are forecast to result in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday evening, especially across the western areas. Shower and storm chances will become more widespread on Thursday and Friday across central and southeastern areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 93 71 92 / 40 40 40 30 Anniston 70 91 70 90 / 40 50 40 40 Birmingham 72 92 72 91 / 40 50 50 30 Tuscaloosa 73 93 72 93 / 50 30 40 30 Calera 72 92 72 91 / 50 50 50 40 Auburn 72 89 72 87 / 40 70 40 60 Montgomery 74 93 73 91 / 50 70 40 60 Troy 72 91 71 90 / 40 70 40 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.