textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026

- Dangerously hot conditions continue today and tomorrow with peak heat indices ranging from 100 to 105 degrees.

- Strong to severe storms are expected over the weekend, with potential for localized gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall

- Higher rain chances arrive by Sunday and will persist into early next week as the system moves slowly across the region.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave ejecting across the Plains as ridging begins to build in over the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed off to our northwest across the Southern Plains. This feature will head our way over the weekend. For today, we will be watching any outflow boundaries that kick south from the convection ongoing to our north. CAMs continue to struggle with developing activity this afternoon. However, any storms that do develop will produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across our northeastern areas this afternoon and evening.

As we head into the weekend, an upper trough is expected to slide southward through the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio and TN Valleys. This will push the aforementioned cold front our way and support increased rain chances over the weekend. Initially on Saturday, the highest rain/storm chances (30-50%) will primarily be over the northern portions of the area. However, by Sunday those chances go up to 60-80%. Ample instability in place will help support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms over the weekend. Several of the latest CAMs suggest more isolated activity Saturday afternoon, followed by a line of showers and storms overnight into Sunday morning. Additional showers and storms are likely Sunday afternoon along the lingering surface boundary. As a result, there is a Marginal to Slight Risk (Level 1 to 2 out of 5) for severe storms across our northern counties on Saturday and a Marginal Risk for all of the CWA on Sunday. These high rain chances will continue into Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough becomes a cut-off low that slowly meanders through the Mid-MS Valley. The low begins to weaken by mid-week while being absorbed by a building upper level ridge. By Wednesday and Thursday we are back to a more typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the low to mid 90s along with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. This will promote a moderate to major heat risk across much of the region. Increased rain chances/cloud cover late this weekend and into early next week will knock our highs back into the 80s with heat indices topping out in the mid 90s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle along with southwesterly winds from 8-10 knots. Confidence remains low in convection this afternoon so we opted to keep the PROB30 in place for TSRA at BHM/EET. There is now a mention of VCTS at MGM to account for going trends with activity developing to the south of the terminal. Convection should wane by 00Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to outage

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and moist air mass remains in place through the weekend with generally light to calm winds. Widespread rain and thunderstorms is expected Sunday into Monday as a weak system moves into the region and stalls through early next week. No fire weather concerns expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 92 72 89 / 10 50 50 80 Anniston 74 91 72 88 / 10 40 40 80 Birmingham 75 93 74 89 / 0 30 40 80 Tuscaloosa 76 93 75 90 / 0 20 30 80 Calera 75 95 74 92 / 0 30 30 80 Auburn 74 92 74 89 / 10 20 30 70 Montgomery 74 94 75 91 / 10 10 30 70 Troy 73 94 74 91 / 10 10 20 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.