textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the low to middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026

The weak upper-level trough continues to push off to the east. In turn, upper-level ridging is already beginning to establish itself across the southeast. By this time Monday, this building ridge will be established over Tennessee, decreasing our rain chances through the week significantly. Rain chances will generally be low (<20%), with any isolated shower or storm being diurnally driven in the afternoon hours each day.

Latest CAMs show minimal rain chances in the far south and west on Monday (<25%), warranting a slight upward adjustment in PoPs. Afternoon high temperatures will also quickly rebound by Monday, with highs returning to the mid and upper-90s. While afternoon heat index values will generally reach above 100 degrees, no heat headlines are anticipated given the lack of higher humidity; however, proper hydration and heat safety precautions are advised during peak afternoon hours. High confidence remains in this general forecast trend continuing into next weekend, as very little movement is expected from the upper-level ridge over the next five days.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. A few showers are forecast during the afternoon across western and southern parts of Central Alabama. However, confidence is not high enough to include mention in MGM and TCL TAF.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast past Monday. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by late next week if significant rainfall does not fall by then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 96 70 96 69 / 10 0 10 0 Anniston 95 70 94 69 / 10 0 10 0 Birmingham 96 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 99 73 99 74 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 96 72 97 73 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 94 73 93 72 / 10 0 10 0 Montgomery 96 72 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 95 71 95 71 / 10 0 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.