textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast by Friday, with the best chances Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher possible.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

Moisture continues to gradually stream back into the region under a stiff south wind, with PWAT values having increased 0.7 inches in the last 24 hours. This trend will continue into the weekend, with most of the rain activity remaining diurnally enhanced through Saturday due to a lack of forcing. During this same time, the cold front to our north will continue to drop south, briefly stalling on Saturday as well.

Unfortunately, I think it's worth passing along tonight that our QPF amounts through the weekend may be overdone. The bulk of the rainfall is expected to fall on Sunday, when a shortwave moves in off the Gulf, allowing for that widespread rainfall due to the enhanced forcing. Just like I mentioned yesterday, this scenario entirely depends on where the cold front stalls, and the orientation that the cold front takes. The last two nights, I have started to see a trend in the cold front stalling farther to the north, then quickly pushing through the region into Monday. Now, we would still see some much needed rainfall if this were to occur, but total rainfall amounts would likely be closer to half an inch, with more scattered pockets of 1-2+ inches under heavier rainfall rates.

Thankfully, confidence in this particular scenario is low, as the bulk consensus remains the current forecast. However, it's still worth passing along given this subtle shift I've seen the last two days, in the event it continues. Otherwise, the cold front is still expected to push through the region on Monday, with temperatures falling back to a seasonable feel for most of next week.

/44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Onshore low-level flow will continue to result in increasing moisture through the period. Satellite imagery indicates IFR cigs are currently approaching AUO this morning. HREF/LAMP guidance suggests there's a low (30%) chance that these could reach MGM, and a lower (10-20%) chance they reach BHM/EET. Scattered SHRA and TSRA are expected to develop with daytime heating Friday afternoon, with the highest chances near the southern terminals as a weak disturbance lifts northward from the Gulf. Have included some PROB30 mentions at all sites, favoring SHRA at the northern terminals and TSRA at the southern terminals per latest HREF calibrated thunder probabilities. Low clouds are expected to develop at the very end of the current TAF period. These will primarily be handled with the next TAF issuance except AUO where confidence is a bit higher.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will persist through most of Friday, with isolated rain chances overnight primarily limited to southern areas. As southerly flow returns, humidity levels will increase into the 50s and low 60s on Friday. Rain chances increase significantly Sunday into Monday, with the highest probabilities across southern and central sections.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 67 88 67 / 30 30 60 60 Anniston 90 68 87 68 / 40 30 60 60 Birmingham 91 70 88 69 / 30 30 60 60 Tuscaloosa 94 69 90 68 / 20 20 50 60 Calera 91 69 88 68 / 30 30 60 60 Auburn 87 69 85 68 / 50 30 60 70 Montgomery 90 70 88 70 / 50 30 60 60 Troy 88 68 86 69 / 60 30 60 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.