textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026

- Heavy rainfall over saturated soils may lead to isolated flash flooding this afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for northeast and north-central portions of Central Alabama through this evening.

- High temperatures will climb by the middle of this week, reaching the lower 90s in many locations by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 335 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026

Surface high pressure is present across New England this afternoon with a boundary situated from Central Illinois to the Carolinas. Across Alabama we remain in a moist onshore flow regime. Satellite is indicating a mostly congested picture of clouds across the state except for a small area in the southwest. BMX radar is indicating scattered convection across the northern half of the CWA. A flood watch continues through 8 pm for some of the north central and northeast counties due to saturated soils and more QPF expected. Temperatures will nudge upward through next week outside of areas of convection starting Tuesday when we will see a change in the pattern.

In the upper levels, an upper trough is building over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Through the short term, shortwave disturbances will continue to propagate periodically around a Deep South and Gulf upper ridge being influenced by the building trough. By Tuesday, this upper trough/shortwave progresses into a larger trough stretching from Eastern Canada, extending southward across Eastern Conus and into the Deep South. The latest guidance continues to progress the Eastern Conus trough to the Atlantic Coast by mid week. At the same time, the Deep South upper ridge should retrograde back over Texas expanding and flattening across much of the Southern US. The result for Central Alabama would be the shifting of our main precipitation axis slightly eastward but still maintaining isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced convection chances for the Wednesday and Thursday time frame. There is a medium probability for increased rain chances across the northern half of the area Friday as a frontal system pushes somewhat close to the Deep South. However, the upper zonal flow does not suggest that the front will be able to make any significant progress into the state. It may allow for some storms to propagate into the area. This potential front will likely move back northward, stall, and fizzle out over this weekend as another frontal system pushes southeast out of the Plains. For this weekend, with little changes locally in the lower levels, low to medium chances for daily diurnally enhanced convection across the area are expected.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026

Rain showers may linger through the evening at a few terminals, before gradually clearing around 09/03z. Low clouds are possible overnight given the high moisture, but confidence here is low so I opted to not include them in any FM groups at this time. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible past 09/20z, but confidence was only high enough to introduce PROB30 groups along and east of I-20.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of this week. Because of that, MinRH values will remain above 45% or higher into next weekend. Given daily rain chances and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 88 69 89 / 50 40 20 20 Anniston 70 87 70 88 / 50 50 20 30 Birmingham 70 90 71 91 / 40 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 72 91 73 91 / 20 20 0 0 Calera 70 92 70 93 / 30 20 10 10 Auburn 72 87 70 90 / 20 40 20 10 Montgomery 73 90 72 91 / 20 20 20 10 Troy 73 89 70 91 / 10 30 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson- Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tuscaloosa.