textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 552 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

- There is a medium to high chance for severe weather tonight into Monday morning. There's increasing concern for widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

- Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm system will result in winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected this afternoon and tonight. - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1152 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

Widespread severe weather is expected late this evening through the overnight hours across Central Alabama.

Through the remainder of this afternoon and evening, the winds are expected to gradually increase ahead of this system. There's a medium to high chance for winds to gust as high as 40 mph well ahead of the line of storms later tonight. This could cause sporadic downed trees and power outages.

We'll be watching a line of thunderstorms later this afternoon move through the ArkLaMiss and into Central AL. This line is associated with a very strong cold front sweeping through the region. Latest guidance continues to show a rich environment with ample instability, strong low level shear, and deep layer shear. With this setup, a robust QLCS with the capability of producing widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes is expected to move through Central AL between 9pm and 6am.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop substantially (as much as a 10 degree drop in 2-3 hours). Guidance has been persistent in bringing through a secondary surge of moisture as the main upper trough pivots through the region. With this, there's at least a low to medium chance for a few snow flurries Monday morning. Given the light amounts, warm surface temperatures, and gusty winds, the chance for any accumulation or impacts to travel in any way is very low.

The main story Monday will be the falling temperatures through the day. Daytime highs may only top out in the 40s depending on how much sunshine we get, but even that may have limited warming capability with the cold air advection through the day.

There's a very high chance for widespread freezing conditions Tuesday morning as temperatures fall into the 20s area-wide. There's at least a low chance for a few of our colder locations across the north to hit hard freeze conditions, so prepare to take measures today or tomorrow to protect any sensitive crops or vegetation. Freezing temperatures are expected again Wednesday morning before we start to see a gradual warming trend Wednesday through Friday.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

An organized line of severe storms will move into the region closer to 16/03z, will all terminals carrying TSRA during the overnight hours. Quick drops in CIGS and VIS are to be expected with the heaviest storm activity, with winds quickly shifting to the W/NW behind the line. Conditions will generally improve past 16/18z, with all terminals returning to VFR conditions past then.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty southerly winds are expected through the remainder of today ahead of a strong cold front that will move through Central AL later tonight through early Monday morning. This front will bring widespread rain, but also widespread damaging winds. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be very dry with critical Min RHs for much of the area both days with increasing moisture not expected until Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 34 39 24 46 / 100 40 0 0 Anniston 37 42 26 47 / 90 40 0 0 Birmingham 37 39 28 48 / 100 30 0 0 Tuscaloosa 37 42 26 51 / 100 20 0 0 Calera 36 42 26 50 / 100 30 0 0 Auburn 43 48 29 50 / 90 70 0 0 Montgomery 41 46 28 51 / 80 50 0 0 Troy 42 48 28 52 / 90 60 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.