textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 646 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026

- Increasing chances of snow mixing with rain or totally switching over this morning. Impacts are not expected. but there is a low probability some minor accumulation in the far northeast. - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026

Ongoing threat for severe weather has started across central Alabama. We are noticing that that the line is behind by roughly an hour, so will adjust the timing a touch. We should begin to see the winds pick up soon along the line as the confluence band begins to increase across the area and the low level jet. We will need to keep an eye out for surges along the line with an increased wind threat an brief spin ups. So far hail has not been a huge concern along the line but has been high with discreet rouge cells just ahead of the line. We are seeing cloud tops still cooling all throughout the line, so look for the severe threat to pick up over the next several hours. After 1 AM, guidance still is showing that a second area of confluence developing in the I-85 corridor just ahead of the main line. There were signs of that development already with showers and storms in Mobile County, Alabama. The storms have since dissipated but gives a good depiction of where the zone could develop. Look for the line will exit the southeast by 7 am.

Behind the line a potent trough will slide into the area on the backside. There will be plenty of moisture to deal with as this zone works through. With temperatures dropping into the 30s behind the line there will be a short period in which snow will mix with rain and then may transition to snow itself across the north after daylight. The good news to all of this is that ground temperatures are well above freezing, so any snow that does accumulate would melt quickly, so impacts are not expected. The best chances for sow will be in the northeast late morning as the axis of the trough slides through with the max vorticity over ANB and GAD. If we were really cold for a day or so, there would be a potential for impactful accumulations in the northeast but we have been quite the opposite, so any impact would be minimal at best. Advisories at this time are not anticipated.

Behind the trough the cold air will really filter into the region and we will see temperatures drop into the 20s Tuesday morning. A widespread freeze warning is in effect with another freeze warning likely for Wednesday morning needed as well. As far as impactful weather a ridge will build over the area through the end of the week. There will be a clipper system slide through the east on Tuesday, but guidance shows the axis of it remains to our east.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026

Low ceilings will move into the area now through 18z. Added in some prob30 for snow showers/rain at TCL BHM and EET after 15z, but only for a brief reduction in visibility. No impacts on the surface is expected. VFR conditions expected after 21z. Winds die down to less than 10 knots.

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FIRE WEATHER

A strong cold front that will move through Central AL this morning. This front will bring widespread rain, but also widespread damaging winds. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be very dry with critical Min RHs for much of the area both days with increasing moisture not expected until Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 45 25 47 26 / 50 0 0 0 Anniston 47 26 48 28 / 40 0 0 0 Birmingham 43 28 48 31 / 30 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 42 26 51 31 / 30 0 0 0 Calera 45 26 51 30 / 30 0 0 0 Auburn 55 29 50 31 / 60 0 0 0 Montgomery 50 29 51 30 / 40 0 0 0 Troy 56 29 51 28 / 50 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.