textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026

- Dry Work Week Ahead: Surface high pressure and weak ridging will maintain dry conditions and warm daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s through much of the work week.

- Gulf Disturbance Monitoring: The National Hurricane Center indicates an 80% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days for a disturbance in the Southwestern Gulf, with a tropical depression expected to form by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals an upper trough swinging across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed draped across Central Alabama. Much drier air is beginning to filter in to the north of this boundary with PWATs already down to around 0.5" per the GOES TPW imagery. Showers and thunderstorms can be seen ongoing to the south of the boundary, closer to the Gulf coast. This front will linger across the southeast for several days before washing out. Surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft will keep dry conditions in place through much of the work week. While days will still be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s, we will have a few cooler mornings with lows dropping into the mid 50s for most.

All eyes turn to our southwest as we keep a close eye on a disturbance over the southwestern Gulf. The NHC maintains a high (80%) chance of development over the next 7 days as this cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms drifts east-northeast across the Gulf. A tropical depression is expected to form by the middle of the week. At this time, it's a bit too early to highlight specific impacts across Central Alabama. However, we can expect an increase in rain chances Friday through the weekend. The latest rainfall amounts are likely to range from 2- 3". A couple members of the LREF are hinting at a 20-30% chance of isolated amounts over 3".

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place for most sites. Some IFR stratus is noted in the far south and east. This will affect MGM/AUO over the next couple of hours and may also briefly hit BHM/EET. Otherwise, look for ENE/E winds 5-10kts during the day with mixing. Could have a few gusts in the afternoon especially south.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Drier and cooler air returns Tuesday, persisting through late week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday into the weekend as deep tropical moisture spreads across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 83 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 82 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 84 58 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 89 61 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 84 59 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 79 61 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 83 61 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 81 61 83 57 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.