textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026

- A more active weather pattern is expected the next 7 days with several rounds of showers and storms expected. Some areas will receive beneficial rainfall.

- Low chance for severe weather Monday night, followed by a more organized severe weather threat Tuesday and Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will weaken through the night, with dry weather prevailing through the early morning on Sunday. Enough low level moisture combined with light winds will allow for fog to develop across much of the area. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday, a weak low level trough moves to the eastern coast with low level flow over the state transitioning to a northerly flow. This will allow drier air to filter into the northern portions of the state. Models are fairly consistent in a five to 10 degree gradient in dewpoint values from northeast to southwest through much of the day. An MCS-type system will develop over the MS River Valley and move southeast. CAMs agree that this feature may clip the far southwestern counties in the afternoon. Instability of 2000 to 3000 J/kg seems to be limited to these counties, and high enough to support a high wind threat from this MCS. CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg across the southwestern half of the area will allow for additional afternoon scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. All activity should weaken after sunset.

Monday, a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, with a trailing cold front moving across the TN River Valley. The day will be mostly dry with a low chance for isolated diurnal convection developing with fairly weak instabilities through the afternoon. Low level flow will transition to a southerly direction ahead of this front, with moisture increasing. An associated mid level jet will begin to impact northwestern areas by the afternoon, with gusty winds from the afternoon through overnight. The front will slowly move into northern Alabama Monday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms. From here, the front stalls, remaining somewhere over the northern half of the state. Models are fairly consistent on timing, sometime between midnight and sunrise. The severe threat is expected to be low due to the late-night/early-morning timing, front stalling, and weakening forcing.

Tuesday, a shortwave moves across the TN River Valley, with an even stronger mid level jet moving across the northern half of the state. Winds will remain gusty through the day and into the night. There is a low chance for isolated diurnal convection in the afternoon. Instability will be meager, with the main focus overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is enough instability around 1000 to 2000 J/kg and around or greater than 40kts shear to support strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the northwestern counties. Activity will continue east and south through the rest of the day Wednesday.

From here, the stalled front will weaken and move to the south, with the focus of storms also shifting south and likely out of central AL. Dry weather returns through the rest of the work week ahead of the next low pressure system and frontal boundary by Saturday.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026

High low level moisture and weak winds will allow for fog development across the area. Confidence was low on how much develops and where, so visibilities will likely need to be amended. Diurnal convection is expected Sunday afternoon, with most of the activity expected to be south and west of each TAF site. Left mention of rain or thunder out of each TAF for now.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are mainly focused across the southwestern half of the state Sunday, with lowered chances Monday. RH values should remain mainly in the 40 to 50 percent range. Several opportunities for showers and storms are then expected the rest of the week, with higher MinRH values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 54 84 56 83 / 30 0 0 0 Anniston 58 83 58 82 / 30 0 0 0 Birmingham 61 85 61 84 / 20 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 60 85 62 87 / 10 10 10 20 Calera 59 86 60 86 / 20 0 10 10 Auburn 61 84 62 82 / 30 0 0 0 Montgomery 62 85 61 87 / 20 0 10 10 Troy 61 86 61 86 / 30 10 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.