textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 511 PM CST MON NOV 9 2026

- Brief chance for rain: Some showers are forecast for locations near and north of Interstate 20 from late Wednesday to early Thursday. Otherwise, dry weather prevails this week.

- Late-Week Cold Front: A strong cold front on Thursday will bring gusty winds and colder air, setting us up for a widespread frost and freeze heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1215 PM CST MON NOV 9 2026

Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues through Wednesday with moderating temperatures. Several vorticity maxima originating from a southern-stream upper low over Texas will move through the area Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon. This increase in mid and upper level moisture will result in mainly some to mid to high level clouds, with dry air in place at low-levels. However, there may be some virga/sprinkles at times, with a low chance for light rain, since models can sometimes under-do QPF in these situations. Have kept chances for measurable rain around 10 percent for now during the Tuesday night - Wednesday afternoon timeframe.

A strong northern-stream shortwave trough will bring a clipper- like system and strong cold front into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Low-level moisture return will be lacking ahead of the front with dew points mainly in the low to mid 50s, but strong forcing and steep mid-level lapse rates will be sufficient for a few showers. There may be just enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm, but severe storms are not expected at this time. A much cooler air mass moves in behind the front, with highs in the 50s and high chances for the first freeze of the season across at least northern portions of the area.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST MON NOV 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with light winds. Mid to upper level clouds will begin to increase through the day Tuesday.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

RH values drop into the 25 to 35 percent range Tuesday afternoon with winds. Moisture increases slightly on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This increase in moisture will warrant a 20-40% chance of rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Drier air and cooler temps return next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 41 75 42 73 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 44 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 46 74 48 73 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 43 75 45 75 / 0 0 10 10 Calera 45 74 47 73 / 0 0 10 10 Auburn 47 75 49 73 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 45 76 47 75 / 0 0 10 10 Troy 44 76 47 74 / 0 0 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.