textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 643 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across northern and western parts of Alabama on Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: There is a potential for heavy rainfall this weekend across the eastern portion of central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 241 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026

First order of business will be assessing the potential for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. Area radars were showing a band of showers developing along and immediately ahead of a cold front advancing into the area from the west. This is a little earlier (by a couple/few hours) than hi-res/CAMs showed. The moisture, instability, and lift is available to continue to sustain convective development through the rest of the afternoon. Effective bulk shear values, however, are marginal at best in Alabama at this time due to a more southwest (versus south) low level wind.

Thus, the current thinking for central Alabama is that we will remain on the southern periphery of the severe potential. As multicellular convective extent and magnitude increases over the next few hours, there's bound to be some cold pool consolidation which should be the main driver in storm organization. Damaging straight-line winds are the main threat, and that will be highly conditional on how much forcing the cold front and associated upper level trough can provide to sustain persistent updrafts. Any severe threat that does materialize should end in our area before midnight.

Beyond tonight, the initial upper low gets sheared out into a trough, before cutting off again into another upper low that drifts across the southeast states into early next week. Best rain chances during this time frame will be in the eastern half of the CWA. From the middle of next week onward, heights again rise and we transition back to a more typical diurnally driven summertime weather pattern.

/61/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026

Latest radar trends now show 2 bands of showers and storms. The leading band is now south of BHM, TCL and EET and is expected to move into MGM and AUO after 02 to 03Z. TEMPO TSRA was added to the 02-05Z window. The second line is west of TCL and JFX. This is expected to move into TCL, BHM through 02 to 03Z. There is one storm east of this line that could move into BHM prior to 00Z. Continued tempo for TSRA across the north through 03 to 04Z. Degraded conditions are expected to persist for less than an hour, given the rapid movement of the line.

Model low-level moisture profiles indicate high confidence in low cloud redevelopment overnight after the rain moves out, with slow improvement after sunrise. After 14 to 15Z, skies should go back to VFR as most sites will be in between showers and storms on Sunday. Current forecast puts the best chances at AUO and MGM, but even those chances remain too low to include at this time.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help keep fire weather concerns in check into next week, with MinRH values expected to remain above 45 percent through Wednesday. Heavy rain is also expected at times over the weekend. Some drier air begins to work in from the east by next Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 88 69 87 / 90 10 10 70 Anniston 72 87 70 86 / 80 10 10 60 Birmingham 72 86 70 86 / 90 10 10 60 Tuscaloosa 71 87 70 88 / 80 10 10 40 Calera 71 88 69 88 / 90 0 10 50 Auburn 73 86 72 85 / 60 30 10 40 Montgomery 73 90 71 90 / 60 10 10 20 Troy 73 89 70 89 / 50 40 30 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.