textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

- Heat Risk: Heat indices will top out in the 105-107 degree range on Saturday, prompting a Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM across most of Central Alabama.

- Severe Weather Threat: An isolated to marginal severe threat (Level 1 of 5) exists on Saturday, with strong storms capable of producing localized damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening reveals our well advertised inverted trough slowly moving across Florida. A plume of slightly deeper moisture wrapped around the northern side of this feature led to a few isolated showers and storms across the region this afternoon. It is likely that this feature becomes a closed low before emerging over the Gulf. As it scoots west, it will nudge the upper level ridge back towards the Plains. This will open up a window for some low to medium chances for showers and storms over the weekend and into next week. Greatest chances daily will come during the afternoon to early evening hours as diurnal heating kicks in. While coverage will be isolated on Saturday, we could see a couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds. As a result, SPC currently has eastern central Alabama outlooked in a Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms. Similar conditions are in store for Sunday as the upper low inches across the eastern Gulf. As we head towards the middle of the work week, the upper low deteriorates. However, ample moisture left in place will lead to diurnally driven convection.

Temperatures look to remain warm over the coming days with highs in the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across the western half of the area are likely to touch 100 degrees again on Saturday. Heat indices on Saturday are likely to top out in the 105- 107 degree range. Therefore, a Heat Advisory remains in effect from noon through 8 PM for most of Central Alabama. Increased rain chances/cloud cover next week will knock several degrees off our highs with temps settling into the upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

Upper-level ridging will break down slightly today, allowing for shower and thunderstorm chances to return to the forecast. This activity will be mostly diurnally driven, with all terminals carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA past 19/20z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF period.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will be around 40%. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend and continue into the middle of next week. Winds will remain light through the next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 97 70 95 69 / 10 10 20 10 Anniston 95 71 94 70 / 20 20 20 10 Birmingham 97 73 95 72 / 10 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 101 73 98 72 / 20 10 10 10 Calera 98 72 96 71 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 95 71 91 70 / 40 30 30 10 Montgomery 96 72 94 71 / 30 30 20 10 Troy 96 70 93 70 / 30 30 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar- Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair- Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.