textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026

- A line of showers and storms will move through Central Alabama late this afternoon through Sunday morning. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain can be expected, with a low chance for a severe storm with damaging winds.

- Mainly dry conditions expected next week with more seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026

It's another warm May-like day across Central Alabama. Ahead of the pre-frontal line of storms expected late this afternoon and evening, which will be discussed below, we are already seeing a few showers developing. These are due to daytime heating as a Cu field continues to deepen. Highest HREF thunder probabilities within this regime are in our southeast counties, and a couple strong storms may occur there with MLCAPE between 1500 and 2000 J/kg but weak shear. Off to our west, a pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary is serving as an effective cold front in far northwest/north-central Mississippi, while ahead of it another old outflow boundary/confluence band is triggering storms in northeast Mississippi. Meanwhile the synoptic cold front is back over Arkansas.

The boundaries over Mississippi will continue to trigger development of showers and storms that will move into our northwest counties later this afternoon. MLCAPE values will be around 1000 J/kg this afternoon, dropping some tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures will result in weak mid-level lapse rates and limit the potential for strong updrafts. Effective shear values will be modest around 20-30kts, mainly concentrated in the 0-3km layer. This will be favorable for some multicells and bowing segments. Expect convection to grow upscale into one or more line segments by tonight, with forcing aided by the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak. Low-level shear will be weak with a 30kt veered 850mb jet as the surface low lifts northeastward from Lake Superior/Lake Huron into Ontario, east of our longitude. Expect mainly gusty winds capable of knocking down some weaker trees, occasional lightning, and brief heavy rain as these storms move through. There will be a low chance for isolated damaging wind gusts in any bowing segments. Localized heavy rainfall amounts up to 2 inches can be expected. This may cause minor flooding in urban areas/poor drainage areas, but continued recent dryness should largely prevent flash flooding. Activity should weaken as it continues to push southeastward overnight as instability continues to decrease and low-level flow continues to veer and weaken. Will keep an eye out for any uptick with daytime heating tomorrow morning in our southeast counties, but instability/shear should remain weak and low clouds/patchy fog could also limit instability in these areas.

Mainly dry conditions are expected for the rest of the period behind the front, along with more seasonable temperatures. Broad upper troughing gets left behind over the southeast CONUS early in the week, with ridging eventually building in late in the week ahead of southwest CONUS troughing. High pressure builds down the East Coast and western Atlantic, resulting in persistent low- level easterly flow.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026

All terminals are currently VFR except TCL which should lift shortly. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours due to daytime heating of a moist air mass, and will include a PROB30 at all sites with the highest probabilities at AUO initially. A line of showers and storms will move late this evening through tomorrow morning ahead of a cold front. Have included some TEMPOs for TSRA at the northern terminals. Cigs will also lower to IFR as the front moves through, with only slow improvement tomorrow morning.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Widespread rain moves in later today, lasting into Sunday morning. Min RH values will remain in the 40-50% range through the weekend. Drier air in the wake of a cold front will drop RH values into the 28-40% range early next week with 20ft wind gusts up to 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 55 68 41 70 / 90 70 0 0 Anniston 59 69 44 71 / 90 80 0 0 Birmingham 57 69 46 70 / 90 70 0 0 Tuscaloosa 58 71 46 73 / 100 60 0 0 Calera 59 72 46 73 / 90 80 0 0 Auburn 64 72 49 70 / 50 90 10 0 Montgomery 65 72 47 70 / 60 80 10 0 Troy 64 73 48 70 / 30 90 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.