textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern begins with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are forecast over the entirety of next week, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

A decaying convective complex has made its way into Northwest Alabama from Western Tennessee and Northern Mississippi this evening. Cloud tops have warmed significantly and lightning activity has gone from quite the show over Mississippi to minimal currently. Some moderate to heavy rain continues, but rates are expected to decrease as the area moves eastward. Our first surface boundary from earlier has pushed northward and fizzled out, but it did help as a focus for some of today's convection originating to our north.

A second front that is currently stretched from the Great Lakes to Missouri and back to the Texas Panhandle will push east across Eastern Conus and should move into the northwest portions of Alabama by sunset Sunday. This will account for another round of increased convection for Sunday into Monday. This front is also expected to stall across the southern tier of Alabama after it slowly works its way southward for the first half of the week. Temperatures will decrease behind the surface boundary some, but that will be more due to increased post front cloud cover and rain chances than a true cold airmass. We are not expected to dry out across much of the area behind it. Rain chances will stay elevated for many, especially the southern two thirds of Central Alabama with broad upper troughing expected along with disturbances interacting with the lingering boundary. Onshore moisture increases for the second half of the week with the front decaying. Toward the end of the week yet a 3rd frontal system approaches to keep elevated rain chances going into next weekend. Overall QPF has increased from the latest guidance for the week. What was once 2-4 inches, now may end up being closer to 3-6 inches by the end of our 7 day forecast. Roughly 1-2 inches may occur for days 1-3, with an additional 2-4 for days 4-7 with a few locally higher amounts. As we get closer to mid week, we will be looking closely at this guidance for the potential for flooding and resulting watches.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

Low confidence in additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, with a handful of terminals carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA once again. Otherwise, terminals will remain in VFR category for most of this TAF period. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected past 15/06z as clouds begin to increase ahead of an approaching cold front.

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FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances increase on Sunday and continue into early next week as a front slowly moves across the region. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 90 68 82 64 / 60 50 20 30 Anniston 89 70 81 66 / 50 50 30 50 Birmingham 91 70 82 66 / 50 50 40 50 Tuscaloosa 92 72 82 68 / 30 40 80 60 Calera 94 71 84 67 / 40 50 80 60 Auburn 92 73 84 69 / 40 50 80 70 Montgomery 93 74 84 70 / 30 40 90 80 Troy 93 74 85 70 / 30 30 90 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.