textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 540 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

- A slight risk (levels 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for late Wednesday into early Thursday. Threats include isolated, brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

- Very beneficial rainfall is expected to fall through Thursday evening, with most locations seeing 2 plus inches of rain during this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

Our current satellite picture is indicating only cirrus across Central Alabama as high pressure is situated across Texas and northeastward through the Carolinas. At the same time, a surface low is present across Ontario with an associated front extending southward across the Great Lakes then southwestward into the Central Plains and curving back into the Northern Rockies. This frontal boundary will progress southeastward over the short term and will bring our next elevated chance for rain and a chance for severe weather by midweek.

In the upper levels, a closed low is confined mainly to Manitoba and Ontario with zonal flow across the eastern half of CONUS. The flat ridging across the Rockies is weakening as another developing low across the Pacific US Coast nudges eastward. Closer to home across Alabama, weak perturbations are moving through the zonal flow with mainly cirrus expected as a result in the short term due to dry low level conditions. Rain-free conditions will continue across the area through the day Tuesday. With rain chances not returning until midweek, temperatures will continue to slowly warm as our airmass moderates and the surface ridge weakens.

Another storm system and associated cold front will approach the Deep South by Wednesday. Elevated rain chances will accompany this system with a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front late Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a marginal to slight chance (level 1 to 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama as this system moves through. The main threats will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence is increasing for a significant rain event with 2 to 3 inches of storm total QPF anticipated through Thursday. Guidance continues to suggest that the greatest instability will be across the southeast part of Texas on through Mississippi Wednesday. However, elevated instability will be present across portions of Central Alabama as well. The strongest in our area is anticipated to be over the western counties. However, with expected dew points in the 60s across Central Alabama (and a few lower 70s) and frontal forcing, we will be closely watching guidance and will continue to refine the forecast as we get closer to Wednesday.

The latest guidance pushes the front through on Thursday with cooler readings for Thursday night into Friday. While rain chances do lower for the end of the week, upper zonal flow will keep the drier air from infiltrating. Low to moderate rain chances remain into the weekend at times, especially for the southern half of the area, as occasional disturbances traverse through the flow.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026

Due to a ridge at the surface, confidence is high in VFR conditions for the entire TAF period.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will stay between 30 to 40 percent for all this afternoon and for the southeastern half of the area on Tuesday, as a surface ridge keeps dry air in the region. These values will begin to rebound on Wednesday, as the next organized system works into the area. Right now, there is high confidence in organized rain chances Wednesday into Thursday, with some locations seeing 2 plus inches of rain. Given recent rainfall, and the upcoming rainfall, this should keep fire weather concerns limited given the wet fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 48 78 59 80 / 0 10 20 70 Anniston 52 80 61 82 / 0 10 10 60 Birmingham 55 79 63 81 / 0 10 10 60 Tuscaloosa 54 82 63 84 / 0 10 10 70 Calera 52 81 61 84 / 0 10 10 60 Auburn 53 80 61 84 / 0 0 0 30 Montgomery 51 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 49 81 60 87 / 0 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.