textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 705 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

- Flooding: A Flood Watch is in effect for much of Central Alabama through this evening due to a high chance for additional heavy rains falling on already saturated soils. Flash flooding will be possible along and south of the I-22 corridor, stretching eastward to the Birmingham Metro area and the I-20 corridor.

- Severe: There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms across much of Central Alabama Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are currently the main threat.

- Heat: Heat index readings approaching 100 degrees are forecast beginning Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 457 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

How about a good ole fashioned forecast update during the overnight shift? It was certainly needed tonight, as the short- term forecast has trended much more active over the past 12 hours. The latest CAMs hot off the press this morning are in pretty good agreement with the development of widespread showers and storms over much of the CWA along a stalled frontal boundary currently draped across Central Mississippi and Alabama. Current surface analysis indicates that the I-20 corridor is currently "wedged" in between higher pressure along the central Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley region north of the stalled front. A mid- level shortwave impulse moving in from the west will provide plenty of synoptic lift aloft, combined with convergence at 700mb and a saturated profile from 1000-500mb. One or more MCVs in the area could also trigger additional development. PWATs of 2+ inches are also expected to advect eastward into the CWA as 925- 850mb moisture transport brings in tropical moisture from the southwest.

As storms develop and slowly move east-southeastward this morning through this evening, the threat for flash flooding will increase as storms are expected to not only move across similar areas, but also where soils remain saturated from recent rounds of heavy rain. Following coordination with WPC overnight, we've decided to go ahead and issue another Flood Watch for most of the CWA through this evening. Any torrential downpours that occur with rain rates of 2-3 inches per hour will cause flooding to occur at a much faster pace due to the water-logged soil conditions. We'll have to watch the hydro desk very closely throughout the day today. CAMs have indicated this morning that heavy rains may develop along and south of a line stretching from the I- 22 corridor to the Birmingham Metro and eastward to the I- 20 corridor. If some of the CAMs verify, we'll need to watch for a flash flood/urban flood potential within some of the higher population centers, such as Tuscaloosa, Jasper, and Birmingham through the first half of the day today. Based on the storm development trends we observe today, we can determine if the watch will need to be extended further into the evening for the southern half of the CWA. The northern counties within the watch could be trimmed back a little earlier in the day as drier air aloft filters in as 500mb flow becomes northwesterly this afternoon.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 705 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

An unexpected break in the IFR ceilings occurred for many terminals this morning ahead of the approaching SHRA/TSRA in Mississippi. As convective development occurs later this morning, ceilings are forecast to drop once again with prevailing SHRA which will limit visibility at times as coverage increases. KTCL will be affected first, followed by KBHM and KEET between 15z and 18z. TEMPO TSRA has been added into the forecast as well with high confidence of storm coverage near the terminals from 17z to 21z. Interests should expect frequent amendments and potentially an addition of prevailing TSRA for terminals through this afternoon. TEMPO TSRA was also added in for KAUO and KMGM for later this afternoon, but forecast confidence is a little lower in terms of timing and overall storm coverage. Following TSRA/SHRA ending this evening, VFR conditions can be expected with the potential for lower ceilings returning once again. Winds will remain light and variable outside of thunderstorms.

Note: Metars from AUO are coming through but observations are missing data. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED has been added for this set.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 82 67 87 73 / 40 10 50 50 Anniston 82 68 86 73 / 60 10 50 40 Birmingham 81 69 87 74 / 80 10 60 30 Tuscaloosa 82 71 86 75 / 90 10 70 20 Calera 83 69 89 73 / 90 20 60 20 Auburn 82 69 86 73 / 80 20 50 20 Montgomery 82 70 86 73 / 90 20 60 10 Troy 83 70 86 73 / 90 20 60 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee- Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker.