textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026

- Dry conditions and comfortable mornings will persist through mid-week.

- Low to medium rain/storm chances return late Friday through the weekend as a cold front approaches and stalls.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026

This evening, surface ridging is situated across Eastern Conus and centered over Ohio. In the upper levels, a weak ridge is across Mexico into Texas pinned between a digging low over California into the Desert Southwest and a large trough out of New York that extends down the East Coast with northerly flow into Alabama. For today after a cool start, we are looking at a warming trend to commence for the latter part of the work week. The humidity will be low again on Tuesday, but our surface pattern will start to change. By Wednesday, the surface ridge center will continue eastward over Virginia. This will create a southeast low level flow into Alabama with onshore moisture return and increasing dew points. In the upper levels for late Tuesday into Wednesday, a bit of energy is expected to pull off from the main East Coast low as it pushes into the Atlantic and form a closed low over the Gulf Wednesday into Thursday. At the same time, the upper ridge over Mexico will get pushed back to the east by Wednesday for a short time over the Deep South as it gets wedged between the West Coast low opening up and moving ENE toward the Central Plains and the low developing over the Gulf. Moisture will need to recover a bit before we can expect any significant rain chances. Very low rain chances return by Thursday for portions of the area. More substantial chances hold off until this weekend ahead of an approaching front. There is a medium chance of this front stalling/moving very slowly. This will yield chances for some much needed rainfall Friday, over the weekend and continuing into the beginning of next week. At this time, 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is likely across much of Central Alabama before all is said and done Friday through Monday. The higher rain chances will also help to hamper the warm up from progressing further over the weekend.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond with very light winds.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will persist through the first half of the week with light winds. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will drop into the middle 20 to lower 30 percent range through Tuesday. Humidity values slowly start to increase starting Wednesday. Rain chances return for the latter part of the week into this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 85 55 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 86 57 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 87 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 91 59 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 87 59 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 85 61 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 60 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 87 60 90 66 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.