textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026

- Probabilities for accumulating wintry precip Saturday night/Sunday morning have decreased, now at a low (10-20%) chance for our far southeastern counties generally south of I-85. - A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers to the area tonight. Rain amounts will be generally less than 0.25". - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 120 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026

Our flow into AL has turned around today as the ridge center has shifted EWD to over FL ahead of another cold front. Thus our readings are milder today in response thanks to breezy SRLY winds. However, there will not be much recovery time and overall moisture will be limited for shower activity ahead of the front for tonight into early Sat with less than a 1/3 inch of QPF (all rain) expected.

A secondary upper low and associated longwave trough will move across the ERN half of Conus Sat night into Sunday with an active upper pattern as a colder airmass moves into place across AL. Guidance is coming into somewhat more agreement on successive runs with an overall weaker and further SE placement of the gulf low. What this means for C AL is less overall QPF and less chances for much of any wintry precip (snow) for Sat night into Sun morning. While we still have rain/snow and at times snow mentioned in the SE counties, any anticipated accumulations have continued to decrease. ATTM, we still have mention in deterministic grids for a small area in the far SE with potential of snow, generally trace amounts to less than 1/4 inch. After early Sun, look for a cold/dry/below normal temp forecast for the first half of next week. Rain chances return Wed night into Thu.

08

Previous discussion: (Through Thursday) Issued at 1209 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026

A large upper-level trough will develop today over the Central CONUS, centered over Ontario and extending southwest through the Great Plains. Cool and mostly sunny conditions are expected across Central Alabama today with surface winds shifting back to the southwest as another cold front approaches the area, which will pass by tonight. Flow aloft will be mostly out of the west, so it does not look as though we will achieve much moisture advection, but enough for a corridor of light to moderate rainfall ahead of the front which will decrease in areal coverage east of I-65. Therefore, rain amounts will be less than 0.25".

Most of the area will remain cool and dry during the day Saturday, then a secondary reinforcing trough will rotate around the base of the upper low which will initiate additional precip along the Gulf Coast and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Probabilities for wintry precip with this second wave have decreased for Central Alabama over the last couple of model runs, favoring redevelopment to our east and maintaining dry, post-frontal conditions across the forecast area as temperatures quickly fall. As it currently stands, will maintain minor snow accumulations in the forecast for our far southeastern counties south of I-85 which could experience a few hours of a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning, but if this trend continues then we will be able to remove any mention of wintry precip from the forecast entirely.

As the deep layer trough begins to slowly shift east on Sunday and Monday, this will place us under an extended period of cold northwest flow and below average temperatures through the first half of next week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026

VFR conditions and breezy southerly winds continue early this evening. Winds will begin to relax around 05/06Z. A cold front will push across the region late this evening through the overnight hours. Rain and MVFR ceilings will spread across BHM/EET/TCL from 05-10Z and AUO/MGM from 09-13Z. VFR conditions quickly return and persist through the remainder of this TAF window. West-northwesterly winds will beg

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will range from 30-35% in the east to 40-45% in the west this afternoon. There will be a breezy southwest wind today with gusts of 20-25 mph. Moisture will gradually increase from west to east ahead of a cold front which will bring rain to the area tonight. An extended period of dry and cold weather is expected the first half of next week. During that time, MinRH values are generally forecast to remain above critical thresholds, but a surge of dry air will cause RH to drop below critical thresholds for much of the area on Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 35 50 22 40 / 80 10 0 0 Anniston 38 51 24 41 / 80 10 10 0 Birmingham 38 49 25 39 / 80 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 36 51 24 42 / 80 10 0 0 Calera 37 52 24 42 / 80 10 10 0 Auburn 43 54 30 42 / 40 30 40 10 Montgomery 45 54 30 44 / 40 30 30 10 Troy 44 56 30 44 / 30 30 40 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.