textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026

- Cooler, Drier Early Fall Pattern: A noticeably cooler and drier air mass settles across Central AL through the weekend, bringing daytime highs in the lower-to-middle 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 112 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026

Today, the area will be between a low pressure to the northeast and a developing high over the MS River Valley. Flow will be from the north, with dry and cool air advecting into the state. The lower levels will be the last to see this dry air, so expect clouds to hang around through much of the evening with a shallow saturated layer lingering. Any drizzle over the state should also slowly weaken and dry, with dry conditions expected by late afternoon and evening. Temperatures tonight will be a solid 10 degrees colder than they were this morning. As the northerly flow continues through the weekend, continuing to advect cool and dry air, the low temperatures will reach their lowest Saturday morning with mid 50s in the northeast and lower 60s in the southwest.

Friday through Sunday will be dry and cool, and the heat indices will be at the actual temperature. By Monday, models start to diverge. There has been a slower trend to the models so far with the next frontal boundary. Next week, a weak low pressure system and trough will move west to east, bringing our next chance of rain. With models slowing down the eastern progression of this feature, would expect rain to move into the state sometime around mid week, if not slightly later.

Low and mid level flow will transition to out of the south during the day on Monday ahead of this next system, and remain from the south for several days. This will allow for a gradual warming trend to set up, with moisture slowly advecting back into the state. Temperatures shouldn't be as high as they were, but highs reaching into the low 90s is likely by Tuesday and remaining until the rain moves in.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026

Lingering low clouds will continue through the afternoon, with enough dry air advecting into the state for all sites to go VFR by early evening. VFR will remain through the TAF period on Friday with the northerly flow in place.

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FIRE WEATHER

Drizzle will continue through the afternoon, with dry air moving into the state by the late afternoon/early evening. This dry air will persist through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity (MinRH) values will range from 40% to 60% through Friday. Drier air will move in over the weekend, bringing MinRH values down into the 30-40% range on Saturday and Sunday. Winds will remain generally light throughout the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 60 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 58 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 61 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 63 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 60 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 79 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 62 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 60 82 59 86 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.