textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 158 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026

- Active Pattern: A wet, unsettled pattern will persist through the week, resulting in periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

- Heat: Hot and humid conditions will continue early next week, with heat indices reaching approximately 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026

A few showers are lingering across the region in the wake of this afternoon's convection. Central Alabama experienced some efficient rainfall producing showers and thunderstorms earlier in the day. Several of these storms produced 3-4 inches of rain across the CWA. The most significant rainfall occurred in northwest Jefferson county where radar estimates show over 7" of rainfall. Latest satellite trends reveal clearing skies across our northern areas. Clear skies, light winds, and saturated soils will set the stage for a foggy morning across Central Alabama.

Our wet pattern continues through the week. A boundary draped across the region will lift north through the day Sunday as a southerly flow continues to usher deep tropical moisture inland. Another H5 shortwave will pass overhead through the day tomorrow which will trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance keeps this upper support closer to the coast which would keep the heavier rainfall to the south of those areas that were impacted today. Therefore, we opted to not continue the Flood Watch to account for Sunday's activity.

As we head into the work week, upper level ridging takes control out west, leaving us with northwest flow aloft. Several H5 shortwaves look to rotate through this northwest flow regime which will keep elevated rain chances in the forecast. Another cold front heads our way by mid week, eventually stalling across the state. This will lead to increased chances for showers and storms as low level convergence is maximized along the boundary. Details for the exact placement will be worked out over the coming days. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along with heat indices around 100 degrees early next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026

The overnight aviation forecast is expected to be on the tricky side, with a mix of low ceilings and patchy fog development ongoing. During the evening hours on Saturday, clouds cleared across northern Alabama, which has allowed fog to develop due to saturated ground conditions from recent rainfall. So far, lower visibilities have not materialized as far south as BHM, TCL, and EET, but will be watching the GOES-19 Night Fog product, surrounding observations, and live webcams to determine if amendments will be needed through daybreak. Otherwise, the prevailing forecast will keep MVFR to IFR ceilings in the forecast for all terminals due to saturated low-level conditions. Ceiling observations may end up fluctuating between SCT and BKN through the night. All terminals will improve to VFR category Sunday morning, followed by development of SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Coverage will be less widespread than Saturday, but still warrants inclusion of at least PROB30 for TSRA at all sites starting first at MGM and AUO and working northward to the remaining terminals later into the afternoon. Prevailing winds from the southwest are expected, around 10 knots during the afternoon.

Note: Metars from AUO are coming through but observations are missing data. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 88 73 89 71 / 20 30 80 80 Anniston 87 73 89 72 / 30 20 60 80 Birmingham 88 73 90 72 / 40 20 70 70 Tuscaloosa 87 74 91 73 / 60 30 60 70 Calera 89 73 92 72 / 50 20 50 60 Auburn 85 73 89 73 / 50 20 20 50 Montgomery 85 73 91 73 / 80 20 20 40 Troy 85 73 92 73 / 80 20 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.