textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 719 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026

- Heat & Humidity: Dangerous heat will be the main focus over the next seven days, and Heat Advisories will be needed for multiple days. Heat indices will approach 100 or just above today through Sunday, rising to 105 degrees or greater by Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Heat Risk will be observed in the Major category for many locations.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026

Central Alabama is currently experiencing a relatively quiet but hot and humid day, with radar showing only isolated convection as of 3pm. The heat dome is taking shape between 500 and 300mb along the northern Gulf Coast and is projected to expand northward and westward in the coming days. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored near the Florida Big Bend, while a stationary front is positioned well to the north over the Ohio Valley. Breezy southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph have developed this afternoon due to the existing pressure gradient. Given the lack of synoptic forcing combined with drier, warmer air aloft, convective activity is expected to remain very limited for the duration of the day.

Warm and humid conditions will persist through the overnight hours, with low temperatures only dipping into the middle 70s. While the upper-level ridge expands toward the north and west across Mississippi and western Tennessee, mid-level disturbances are expected to move southeastward along the ridge's eastern edge through east Tennessee and northern Georgia. Consequently, a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm will remain possible for far eastern and northeastern counties tonight, though most convection should stay to our east. By Sunday, temperatures will climb further, with many spots reaching the mid 90s. Although a few locations may see heat indices approach the 105-degree mark, these instances are expected to be too isolated to warrant a Heat Advisory. Additionally, as 500-300mb winds shift to the north or northwest on the back side of the ridge, a low-end potential for storms will continue for the easternmost counties.

By Monday and Tuesday, dangerous heat is expected to build, and a Heat Advisory will be needed for both days. A 596 decameter upper ridge will expand significantly from the Ohio River Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Monday afternoon high temperatures should reach the mid to upper 90s, supported by 1000-850mb thicknesses, with very little chance of rain. Forecasted heat indices range from 105 to 107 degrees on Monday, increasing to between 105 and 110 degrees across nearly the entire CWA by Tuesday. As the upper ridge moves slightly northward by Tuesday, shower and storm chances are expected to return. Mid-level impulses are currently advertised to track west from Georgia into Alabama along the ridge's southern periphery. While the highest rain chances are expected across the southern half of the state, scattered convection is likely for all of Central Alabama. Dusting off my summer convection and microburst procedures, current guidance suggests a potential for a few strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon, particularly if microburst parameters (which are forecast in the high category) verify. Very steep low- level lapse rates (upper 90s to near 100 surface temps), dry air aloft on forecast soundings, and 0-6km shear of 15 to 20 knots may be sufficient to sustain updrafts a little longer as storms move from east to west.

The upper ridge then becomes more of a "dirty ridge" as it centers over the Mid-Atlantic region by the end of the upcoming week, with shower/storm chances staying in the forecast each afternoon. Upper flow will remain easterly to southeasterly with a chance of additional impulses moving westward across the Deep South. Otherwise, the dangerous heat will remain present through Friday with highs advertised to stay in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices potentially rising above 105 once again Thursday and Friday afternoon.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 24 hour forecast period at all sites with ridging in place and only fair weather cumulus/ cirrus at times. Winds will be light and variable overnight and from the west-southwest at 6 to 10kts with mixing on Sunday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Only isolated shower or thunderstorm chances are anticipated for this weekend. Slightly better diurnal convection chances are expected by the middle of next week. However, outside of lucky areas of rain, the heat and humidity will be the main story for this weekend into next week as heat indices approach and top 100 degrees. Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity will stay well above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 93 74 96 / 0 10 0 0 Anniston 74 92 73 95 / 0 10 10 0 Birmingham 76 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 75 94 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 74 96 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 73 91 74 94 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 74 92 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 73 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.