textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday.

- Low chance for severe weather Monday night, followed by a more organized severe weather threat Tuesday and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026

Not much has changed in the overall thinking with the forecast for the next few days. Isolated chances for a thunderstorm remain in the forecast for our SW today, with most of the region staying dry though Monday afternoon due to surface ridging off to the east. More organized rain chances return to the forecast Monday Night, as a decaying line of storm to severe storms begins to work into the region from the NW.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Monday night, as a weak shortwave is expected to move out ahead of the cold front draped from the Midwest, back down to the southern Plains. An organized complex of thunderstorms will generally drop SE along this cold front and shortwave, gradually losing steam as it moves farther away from the best forcing. At this time, it looks like this complex could move into the region between 3-5 AM on Tuesday. In the event it's able to maintain its structure, damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat. However, I have serious reservations about that being the case at the time of this discussion. The complex quickly moves away from the best forcing, and the better axis of instability is really limited. In the event these values are even lower than forecast, the severe weather threat may not even materialize. Regardless if that happens or not, thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning, and expected to linger into Tuesday afternoon.

The SPC has also maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Tuesday night, as additional severe storm development is expected along the cold front to our west. As time goes on, these storms will go upscale, before working into our region as another organized complex. Much like tonight, the better axis of instability seems to be to our NW, with values quickly decreasing once the sun sets. However, instability values are not insignificant, and the forcing should be better Tuesday night as well. The main threat will be damaging winds, but low chances also exist for an isolated tornado.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger across the region for the rest of the day on Wednesday, before the stalled cold front moves through Wednesday night. From here, dry conditions return to the forecast, with cooler temperatures expected into the weekend as well. However, rain chances will return to the forecast by next weekend, as the next organized system is expected to work the region then.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026

Due to a surface ridge expanding across the area tonight, VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF period. With that being said, there are low probabilities for a thunderstorm this afternoon, but that activity should be limited to our SW, and confidence was not high enough to introduce SHRA/TSRA in any FM groups at this time.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Due to increasing moisture and rain chances into Monday, confidence is medium in MinRH values remaining above 50% through Wednesday. MinRH values will drop again on Thursday behind a passing cold front, before increasing once more by next weekend. Thankfully, organized rain chances will remain in the forecast through Thursday as well, before drying out into the weekend. Even with ongoing rain chances, fire weather concerns will remain elevated due to the widespread drought conditions and critically dry fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 83 58 81 / 0 0 50 60 Anniston 59 82 60 83 / 0 0 40 50 Birmingham 62 84 65 83 / 10 10 50 60 Tuscaloosa 61 87 65 85 / 10 20 50 50 Calera 61 86 64 86 / 10 10 40 50 Auburn 62 81 61 83 / 0 0 10 20 Montgomery 62 87 64 87 / 0 10 10 30 Troy 61 86 62 87 / 0 0 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.