textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

- Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures.

- Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026

This evening we have a surface boundary extending from the TX Panhandle, to AR, and NEWD to MD. The W portions of this boundary will get pushed NWD as a warm front as we head into the day Thursday as a cold front develops on the lee of the Rockies and the associated low moves NEWD. By Friday morning this low is expected to have progressed to the Great Lakes and combined with another system pushing SEWD out of Central Canada. During Friday this system should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated.

However, before that we still have Thu where we could see a few max temp records in jeopardy (see climate section), and Fri where max temps will still be above normal. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Fri afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool readings with lows in the 40s for many on Fri night and for all Sat/Sun nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

Surface and upper level high pressure should provide about 24 more hours of clear conditions and light wind for central Alabama terminals. As soon as patchy fog burns off at TCL and MGM, VFR conditions can be expected areawide.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range for many locations. A cold front will move through the area Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, minimal rainfall, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881

Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 89 60 84 47 / 0 0 20 10 Anniston 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 89 64 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 92 62 85 49 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Auburn 88 63 84 51 / 0 0 20 10 Montgomery 89 63 86 52 / 0 0 20 10 Troy 88 62 85 51 / 0 0 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.