textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) across West-Central Alabama and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) across much of the region for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Hail and wind are the main threats with this activity.

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Severe Storms

Issued at 514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing over the last few hours. A few of these have been severe. Our strongest storm so far looked to ride along the northern periphery of a theta-e gradient, right into Central AL. We will be assessing the damage associated with that storm Friday morning. Latest hi-res guidance continues to hint at these storms congealing into a line and moving south through the night. This will also lead to an increase flood threat as the storms slow down. Signs still point to a few pockets of 2-3" through the night.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1128 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026

As rather dreary day is unfolding across Central Alabama as light to moderate rainfall continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Latest satellite imagery reveals a few breaks opening up in this expansive low level cloud deck. This will allow us to destabilize through the day. Recent runs of the HRRR hint at CAPE values nearing 1000-1300 J/kg this afternoon across Central AL. Increased instability along with steep mid level lapse rates and bulk shear from 40-50 knots will create an environment favorable for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds look to be our primary risks. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for our western counties while maintaining a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for much of the area.

In addition to the severe threat, we will need to closely monitor our hydro threat. Soils should be able to handle most of this activity. However, forecast soundings suggest a deep warm cloud depth which is indicative of high rainfall rates. Recent hi-res guidance (HRRR/RRFS-A/HREF LPMM) hint at a few pockets of 2-3" of rainfall late this evening into early Friday morning. Exact placement will be heavily dependent on where the boundary slows/stalls and our low level moisture convergence is maximized. This would lead to isolated flooding concerns.

Rainfall will gradually come to an end through the day Friday as the front begins to fizzle out and weak mid level ridging attempts to regain control. Rain chances return to the forecast early next week as another front and H5 shortwave head our way.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

A mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings are in place across the region at this time. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing, generally north of BHM over the last few hours. This activity will gradually move south through the evening and overnight hours. As this happens, MVFR ceilings will become more widespread with brief periods of IFR, especially with any passing shower/storm. Rain will gradually taper off through the morning hours. Ceilings will be slow to improve with VFR not returning at BHM/EET/TCL until 15Z. AUO/MGM maintain MVFR through the end of this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Plentiful moisture will remain in place this afternoon, keeping min RH values around 65-80%. Drier air gradually filters into the region Friday into the weekend with RH values falling to 30-40%. Moisture begins to recover early next week with min RH values back into the 40-50% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 47 71 43 73 / 60 10 0 0 Anniston 50 70 47 73 / 80 20 10 0 Birmingham 51 71 46 73 / 80 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 51 73 46 76 / 80 10 0 0 Calera 51 72 46 74 / 80 20 10 0 Auburn 56 68 53 71 / 90 50 20 10 Montgomery 58 71 53 73 / 90 40 10 0 Troy 58 71 53 73 / 90 70 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.