textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through midweek. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Thursday.

- Strong Storms: Portions of the region are under Marginal Risks (Level 1 of 5) today through Thursday, with damaging winds being the primary hazard if storms do become strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026

Hot and humid conditions will be the main weather story for much of this week, as upper-level ridging will dominate the forecast through Friday. The combination of heat and humidity will push heat index values well above 105 degrees, with the existing Heat Advisory now in effect through 9 PM Thursday. Over the next several days, the main center of high-pressure will meander to the NE, ebbing and flowing in its level of strength. Today, this will allow for a very weak surface boundary to work into the region from the east.

This surface boundary will be the catalyst for afternoon thunderstorm development today, with scattered thunderstorms already appearing on radar. Given plenty of forecast instability, a lack of deep layer shear, and dry air in the mid-levels, conditions are prime for microburst activity in some of the heavier convection. Thus, the SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for today, while also introducing one with the new Day 2 for Wednesday. There are still questions regarding the overall storm coverage the next three days, since there is no real forcing mechanism for these storms, and everything will be boundary driven. With that being said, the high CAPE/low shear environment extends into Friday, with the SPC maintaining the Marginal Risk's as such.

The pattern will break down into the weekend, with the flow aloft becoming much less organized. This will allow for afternoon highs to drop ever so slightly into the low-90s by Sunday and Monday, and allow for scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms to remain in the forecast.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026

The region remains under the influence of a stout upper-level ridge, keeping most terminals in VFR category for the next 24- hours. With that being said, scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to carry anything more than PROB30 groups at this time. If thunderstorms do occur, expect rapid drops into MVFR/IFR category for brief periods of time, and perhaps some reduced VIS overnight due to the increased moisture on the ground.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into the weekend, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The main axis of rain activity will be south today, before shifting north tomorrow and Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain low, as humidity levels will stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 95 76 97 / 10 40 20 30 Anniston 76 94 75 95 / 10 40 20 30 Birmingham 78 95 77 96 / 10 40 20 20 Tuscaloosa 78 95 77 96 / 10 50 20 20 Calera 77 97 76 98 / 10 40 20 10 Auburn 76 92 74 93 / 20 20 10 0 Montgomery 76 94 75 95 / 20 20 10 0 Troy 74 93 73 94 / 20 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Cherokee-Chilton-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair- Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Pike- Randolph-Russell-Talladega-Tallapoosa.