textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026

- Heat Indices: While slightly cooler temperatures arrive today, heat indices will still reach 100-105 degrees. Humidity levels will be slightly lower, but please continue to practice heat safety.

- Rain and Storms: Drier conditions today and Tuesday will shift rain activity toward the south. By mid-week, rising humidity will lead to an increased chance for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

Isolated showers and storms remain possible (10 to 20%) through 4 AM, primarily across the southeast. Given the earlier rainfall, patchy fog is anticipated across the east through sunrise.

For the upcoming day, surface flow becomes easterly, resulting in a slight drop in temperatures and dew points. Drier air aloft moving in from the north will limit convective potential across the northern third of the (CWA), while scattered storms remain in the forecast south of I-20. Afternoon surface dew points are expected to mix into the upper 60s to lower 70s, keeping heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria. While no advisory is anticipated for Monday, heat indices will rise to 100-105 degrees. The easterly surface flow will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens near the surface ridge over the Appalachians. Expect wind gusts near 20 mph, providing heat relief for eastern and northeastern counties.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to amplify by midweek. High confidence exists that rising heights and drier air aloft will limit rain chances to the I-85 corridor and points south through Wednesday. Meanwhile, global deterministic guidance maintains consistency in moving an upper-level low westward over the northern Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday, transporting additional tropical moisture northward. Consequently, diurnal shower and storm chances are expected to increase, with highs reaching the low to mid-90s. By the end of the week, an upper trough will dive toward the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will approach the region by Friday and Saturday; however, current guidance indicates limited upper-level support for the front to penetrate as far south as Central Alabama.

16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the majority of this TAF cycle. With that said, there is a low chance for patchy MVFR fog early this morning. Light and variable winds early this morning will become easterly through the day. AUO/MGM are likely to see occasional gusts in the 15-20 knot range. We are maintaining a 30% probability of convection at MGM and AUO during the late afternoon and evening hours, given the potential for sufficient localized coverage.

Note: AMD NOT SKED at TCL due to missing observations.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-30%) through midweek, they will increase slightly thereafter. Fire weather concerns remain low for now, but decreasing soil moisture will elevate these risks by the end of the week if beneficial rainfall remains scarce.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 70 90 69 / 10 10 10 0 Anniston 89 70 88 70 / 20 20 10 0 Birmingham 93 72 89 72 / 20 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 98 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 0 Calera 94 72 90 72 / 20 20 10 0 Auburn 88 71 87 72 / 30 20 20 0 Montgomery 95 73 92 73 / 30 20 20 10 Troy 94 70 90 70 / 40 30 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.