textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 604 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026

- Seasonable Conditions: Fair weather is expected through Friday.

- Fire Weather: There is a medium fire weather risk through this week due to dry fuels, limited moisture, and slightly increased winds.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026

Dry conditions are expected to remain for most of the upcoming week, as upper-level ridging stays in place through Wednesday. By Thursday, the ridge will finally break down and shift to the east, as a deep trough sets up to the west. This will put the region back into SW flow aloft, allowing for slow moisture return into the weekend. During this timeframe, temperatures will climb ever so slightly, settling into the upper-70s and low 80s.

By Friday morning, it appears as if a weak closed low pressure will develop along the TX/NM border, before moving NE into the central Plains. During this time, a shortwave will branch off this closed low, working away from the apex to the east, riding the SW flow aloft. This shortwave should begin to affect the region by Saturday afternoon in the form of increased rain probabilities. As this closed low continues to work to the NE through the weekend, as will the rainfall, with rain staying in the forecast through Sunday afternoon. While total rainfall amounts remain to be seen, any rainfall will be a sight for sore eyes.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026

VFR TAFs are expected through the next 24 hours. Fog has developed at KMGM, which should dissipate by 13z. East-northeast winds 5-8 kts are expected with mixing during the day, with light/variable to near calm winds overnight.

Note: Fall seasonal issuance of the KASN Talladega TAF began on 10/18 00Z and will continue through 10/28 18Z.

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FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will allow us to maintain rain-free conditions through Friday. Daytime MinRH values are forecast to be in the 25 to 45 percent range through Wednesday, with minimum values increasing toward the end of the week. Given the MinRH values and drying fuels, fire weather concerns will remain medium through much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 76 44 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 77 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 77 50 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 78 48 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 75 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 76 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 77 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 77 47 76 50 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.