textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

- Major to Extreme Heat: A significant heat risk is expected to persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week, with heat indices reaching 105 to near 110 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect.

- Convection: A summertime convective pattern persists with 20-50% rain chances, primarily favoring southern areas while north-central Alabama chances are lower.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 222 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

Today surface high pressure is present across the Northern Gulf Coast. This afternoon is similar to yesterday with another example of a very hot, humid, and unstable airmass across Central Alabama as some storms are breaking through with diurnal heating. In the upper levels, a ridge is centered across the Deep South with weak flow across Central Alabama. At the surface, little change is expected through the short term (today through Sunday). However, aloft, the ridge is expected to expand westward and remain that way through Tuesday. This should help to suppress overall convection toward more isolated storms, and it will reinforce the heat over us. In the near term, any storms that do pop up this afternoon and evening (mainly southeast counties) could grow quickly with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall with our unstable airmass.

Outside of any storms, the heat will continue to be the main story. The prolonged period of heat will have an effect on folks whether or not the heat index goes to 109 or 110. A heat advisory continues for all of Central Alabama for today through Monday. There will not be any major features to help to cool the area off in the short term, so look for a high probability of heat advisories to be continued through the beginning of this week. The majority of areas should see max heat indices of 105 to 109. While there could be an isolated 110 plus at times, coverage of higher indices should be isolated. There is a medium to high chance that some areas (especially west) could see triple digit high temperatures this afternoon into the beginning of next week. By mid week, a surface boundary is expected to move into Alabama as the eastern portion of the upper ridge weakens. While this boundary is not going to bring cool weather to the state, we could see a few slightly lower dew points and high temperatures at a couple of points across portions of the area. This in turn could lower our heat risk, which we desperately need.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

There are low probabilities in TSRA at MGM and AUO tomorrow past 16/18z, but low confidence precludes the inclusion of TSRA in any FM groups at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period due to a persistent upper-level ridge.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the next several days, with the greatest chances across our southern areas. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 75 99 77 99 / 10 0 0 10 Anniston 74 97 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 Birmingham 76 98 78 98 / 0 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 75 100 78 100 / 0 10 10 10 Calera 75 98 77 99 / 0 10 10 10 Auburn 75 93 76 94 / 20 20 10 10 Montgomery 76 99 77 100 / 20 20 10 10 Troy 74 96 76 97 / 20 20 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.