textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather is in place for this afternoon. Hail and wind are the main threats with this severe activity.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026

Rain is currently ongoing well to our north, as this elongated cold front slowly makes its way south. Rain chances will gradually increase overnight, expanding in coverage as the morning goes on, and the front drops farther south. Current thinking is a ragged line of showers and thunderstorms will work into the region by late morning, eventually becoming more disorganized as new storms form ahead of the line. This is where even the high-res guidance starts to split, as a few different scenarios are possible when it comes to afternoon thunderstorms, and the potential for severe weather.

A few strong to severe storms certainly appear possible later this afternoon, as mean HREF CAPE values are pushing 900 J/Kg along and south of I-20 later today. The mid-levels are quite dry too, as 700-500mb lapse rates were pushing 7.5 C/Km on many of the forecast soundings I pulled this evening. Including the deep layer shear, the environment this afternoon appears to favorable for large hail, with the SPC introducing a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) to account for this.

With all of that being said, this is not a slam dunk, thus the SPC only introducing the level 1/5. There are more than a few scenarios where the morning thunderstorms completely deplete the atmosphere of instability, and choke off any kind of return in the afternoon. There is also a scenario in which afternoon storms grow very quickly, choking the updrafts of more mature storms, limiting the hail potential as the day progresses. Regardless of the severe potential, these storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall at times, with most locations seeing half an inch to an inch of rainfall.

Rain chances will come to an end Saturday, with afternoon highs quickly climbing into the upper-70s come Sunday. A secondary cold front may work through the region sometime near Monday, briefly dropping temperatures once more, before very quickly rebounding into Wednesday. Even though it's not in our official forecast period, the weather story will likely transition into above average temperatures, as a stout upper-level ridge begins to build to our east come this time next week.

/44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026

A slow moving frontal boundary is going to be the main driver of the aviation forecast today. Patchy light rain will persist through the morning hours ahead of this boundary with gradually decreasing CIGs for BHM, TCL, and EET early in the day and into the afternoon. With at least some modest instability expected, have include Prob30s in for those sites through the afternoon hours. MGM and AUO will see the increasing rain chances later in the afternoon through the evening hours. Ceilings are expected to drop as this front moves north to south through the area with IFR conditions expected for much of the day for BHM and EET, then later for the remainder TAF sites. I've continued to trend the CIG down towards the end of the period as guidance is pessimistic from 09z-12z for many sites with a 20-30% chance of dropping to LIFR before 12z.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will begin to drop on Friday, as the cold front finally works through the region. Until then, look for MinRH values to remain above 50%, as moderate rain chances stay in the forecast through Friday morning. While quick drying conditions are possible this weekend, fire weather concerns will remain little to none given the upcoming rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 48 70 43 / 90 50 10 0 Anniston 68 50 70 45 / 80 60 10 0 Birmingham 68 51 70 46 / 80 60 10 0 Tuscaloosa 72 50 72 44 / 70 70 10 0 Calera 71 50 72 45 / 80 70 10 0 Auburn 69 55 70 51 / 70 80 40 10 Montgomery 73 57 72 50 / 70 90 40 10 Troy 75 58 72 52 / 50 80 60 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.