textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026

- Periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend, with low chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently expanding across the region, as the first shortwave of the weekend moves through the area. Behind this shortwave, the upper-level flow will slightly shift, pushing the stalled boundary to our NE a bit more north. However, this stalled boundary won't stay north, as it will likely ebb and flow across the area through most of the weekend. Given an already disturbed airmass, and plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, rain chances will remain high through Sunday.

Rain chances will begin to diminish by the start of the new workweek, as the front finally gets pushed through the region with some help from the deep trough forming over New England. From here, rain chances will largely depend on where this cold front ends up settling. Currently, it looks like the front will move slightly farther south, resulting in the rain chances remaining south. With that being said, coverage through the middle of the week will mostly be diurnally driven and influenced by the seabreeze. There is a chance that the pattern breaks down into the weekend once more, allowing for more organized rain chances into next weekend. Confidence is low here however, and will likely be something we'll just keep an eye on over the next few days.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026

A narrow corridor of lower clouds is currently moving west to east across the region, which may briefly drop terminals into MVFR conditions. However, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon. Just like the last few days, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected area-wide, but coverage and confidence only currently translates into PROB30 groups. This activity should diminish past 30/00z, with MVFR/IFR CIGS overnight past 30/06z.

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FIRE WEATHER

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the weekend across Central Alabama. This pattern will lead to high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low clouds or patchy fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 65 83 64 80 / 70 80 20 60 Anniston 66 82 66 80 / 70 80 30 60 Birmingham 67 84 67 83 / 60 80 20 70 Tuscaloosa 69 85 69 87 / 60 60 10 60 Calera 67 85 67 86 / 50 70 20 70 Auburn 68 83 68 81 / 70 80 30 70 Montgomery 68 84 68 84 / 40 70 20 70 Troy 68 85 68 85 / 40 60 30 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.