textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

- Heat: Major to Extreme HeatRisk is expected to persist through the beginning of the work week. Heat indices are forecast between 105 to 113 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for Monday.

- Isolated Severe Storms: Portions of the region are under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with any strong to severe storm activity.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 205 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

For today surface high pressure is present across the Northern Gulf Coast. This afternoon is somewhat similar to yesterday with another example of a very hot, humid, and unstable air mass across Central Alabama as a few isolated storms are breaking through with diurnal heating. In the upper levels, the ridge has expanded across the entire Southern US and is centered from Texas to Mississippi with weak flow across Central Alabama. It should remain that way through Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary will approach by late Monday. This will help to enhance rain chances for Monday afternoon and evening a little. However, for most, the lead up to convection will be one of the warmest days this summer yet. Yesterday's guidance hinted at higher heat indices. This trend continued in guidance today, so we have upgraded the heat advisory for Monday to an extreme heat warning for all of Central Alabama with values that could top out at about 113. Note that today we are still very toasty with a heat advisory in effect for all. In the near term, any storms that do pop up this afternoon and again on Monday could grow quickly with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall with our unstable airmass.

By mid week, this surface boundary is expected to meander further into Central Alabama as the eastern portion of the upper ridge weakens with a more northwest flow into the state. While this boundary is not going to bring cool weather to the state, we could see slightly better rain chances for Thursday through Saturday while it is present with a little more focus. Dew points north of this boundary could be a tad lower, along with high temperatures not quite as elevated across portions of the area. This in turn could very slowly lower our heat risk as we head toward next weekend.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for much of the upcoming TAF period. A weak boundary will begin to approach the region by tomorrow afternoon, resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm activity past 17/20z. Here, PROB30 groups for TSRA have been introduced at TCL, BHM, and EET through 18/00z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the next several days. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next five days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 76 99 75 96 / 10 30 20 10 Anniston 75 97 74 94 / 10 30 20 10 Birmingham 77 97 76 95 / 10 30 20 10 Tuscaloosa 77 99 77 98 / 10 20 20 10 Calera 76 97 76 96 / 10 30 20 10 Auburn 76 95 77 93 / 20 20 20 10 Montgomery 77 100 77 99 / 20 30 20 20 Troy 75 97 75 97 / 20 30 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.