textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026

- Hurricane Isaias will continue to move towards the Northern Gulf Coast, making landfall Friday evening.

- Winds may gust as high as 40 to 50 mph late Friday night through Saturday, resulting in the potential for scattered to numerous downed trees and power lines.

- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches will result in the potential for flash flooding, especially in urban and other poor drainage areas.

- A threat for isolated tornadoes may develop along and east of Interstate 65 on Saturday, with the relatively highest potential in far southeastern portions of Central Alabama, but confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026

Hurricane Isaias Overview:

Hurricane Hunter data this evening indicated that Isaias has reached hurricane strength. It currently has max sustained winds of 75 MPH. It will move steadily to the north-northeast through the day Thursday before making a quick turn north on Friday before landfall along the Northern Gulf coast Friday evening. There remains some uncertainty at this time regarding the timing and location of this system. As we continue to gather more data, we should be able to fine tune these details in the near future. It's important to remember that the center of the storm can track anywhere inside of the cone, and that impacts can occur well outside the cone especially as the storm will be increasing in size during its extratropical transition. Given the fast-moving nature of the storm, the wind threat does appear to be increasing. The speed may decrease the flash flooding threat a bit, though with the potential for banding to occur the threat for some flash flooding does remain. The tornado threat remains uncertain, but is still worth keeping an eye on. Bottom line is everyone in Central Alabama needs to be prepared for tropical weather impacts. As of 10 PM this evening, Hurricane Warnings are in effect along the immediate Gulf coast with Tropical Storm Watches extending up to our southern CWA border with MOB and TAE.

Gradient/Tropical Winds:

While the storm's core will likely lose some organization as it moves into the area, low-level wind fields remain strong with 925mb winds around 60-70kts, and fast-moving systems are typically a bigger concern for winds. While a stable layer associated with the wedge will be a limiting factor for mixing down the higher winds, forecast soundings do indicate the potential for 40-50kt winds not too far off the ground. The high pressure to our northeast will also enhance the pressure gradient. Therefore, potential wind gusts look to be in the 40- 50 mph range with potential for locally higher gusts especially in the southern counties and also at higher elevations. This would result in scattered to numerous downed trees and power outages, which could be more widespread if the stronger solutions verify. Watches may become necessary as early as tonight.

Heavy Rainfall/Flash Flooding:

Drought remains ongoing over the area, but some areas did receive beneficial rainfall last weekend, especially our far southwest and far southeast counties. Streamflows remain below normal to well below normal for this time of year across West Alabama, while streamflows are closer to normal for this time of year (though normal is fairly low this time of year) elsewhere. This should minimize the risk of widespread main stem river flooding. Still, with copious tropical moisture transport there will be a threat for flash flooding, especially in urban and other poor drainage areas. Current forecast rainfall amounts range from 2-4" with locally higher amounts of 5". There may be a band of relatively lower rainfall amounts due to dry slotting somewhere between higher amounts west with the core of the system and higher amounts east with a north-south frontal band that sets up south of the center of the system. A Flood Watch may eventually be needed for portions of the area.

Severe Weather/Tropical Tornadoes:

Unsurprisingly, low-level shear and helicity values are high as the tropical system moves in. Mid-level winds/deep-layer shear values are higher than normal for a tropical system due to phasing with the upstream shortwave trough. The main limiting factor as it often is as we move into the cool season is instability. The cold air damming wedge and associated easterly winds resulting in evaporative cooling from isentropic lift driven rainfall will be the primary limiting factor for surface- based instability. At this time, the northeast quadrant of the storm looks stable as it moves in overnight. Starting potentially as early as the early morning hours on Saturday in our far southeast counties, a narrow corridor of instability may develop as the warm front lifts northward in tandem with the center of the system while a developing occluded front begins to move westward. Instability and shear profiles would be conducive for a potential for isolated tornadoes mainly along and east of I- 65 (though if western solutions verify this corridor would shift westward) during the day on Saturday, with relatively highest potential in our far southeast counties. This would be conditional based on placement of the convective band, with the approaching dry slot being a potential limiting factor where it suppresses convection. This threat will need to be closely monitored as we get closer and can assess the mesoscale trends.

Isaias quickly peels off to the northeast by early next week as upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region. This will promote a likely much needed drying out period early next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail throughout this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to 5-8 knots out of the northeast to east during the day Thursday.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected through Thursday. RH values will generally be in the 25 to 35 percent range Thursday afternoon. Rain chances and humidity begin to increase across southeast portions of the area Friday, while areas further to the northwest will have RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range. Fire danger for western and northwestern areas Friday as winds begin to pick up ahead of an approaching tropical system. Widespread rain and high winds are expected Friday night and Saturday as Tropical Storm Isaias moves through the area. Drier air moves quickly back into the region early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 59 84 58 / 0 0 20 70 Anniston 88 61 83 61 / 0 0 20 70 Birmingham 88 63 85 61 / 0 0 20 80 Tuscaloosa 91 63 89 62 / 0 0 20 80 Calera 87 62 83 61 / 0 0 20 80 Auburn 83 64 78 62 / 0 0 30 90 Montgomery 86 62 82 62 / 0 0 30 90 Troy 83 63 78 61 / 0 0 40 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.