textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026

- A transition from rain to snow is expected to occur around 3 AM tonight across our far southeastern counties. Accumulations up to one inch on grassy and elevated surfaces is forecast for portions of Barbour, Russell, and Pike counties with snowfall ending by mid-morning. - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the first half of this week.

DISCUSSION

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026

A mid to upper-level trough axis is situated just to our west over the Mississippi River. At the surface, the cold front is well to our east, and northwesterly flow is ushering in cold, dry air. Low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows a clear moisture gradient with higher moisture content south of a line from Cleburne to Marengo county. Light to moderate rainfall continues downstream of the trough along a corridor from Mobile northeast into the Mid- Atlantic region, including our far southeastern counties.

It seems the forecast has come full circle. The last few runs of model guidance, including hi-res, have latched onto a transition from rain to snow by 3 AM until 10 AM at the latest for counties south of Interstate 85 as temperatures fall from the mid 40s into the lower to mid 30s. Dry conditions are expected to continue all night for areas generally north of I-85. Highest chances for accumulation up to one inch will be in Pike, Barbour, and Russell counties where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing for a few hours before sunrise, followed by gradual warming back into the 40s by midday. As such, expect snowfall accumulations to be primarily confined to grassy and elevated surfaces with limited or no impacts expected on warmer roadways in the Advisory area. Once precip ends by mid morning, any snowfall accumulation will melt throughout the day with breezy winds helping to dry roadways. This has been a tricky forecast, so we will be watching radar and temperature trends closely in case the Advisory needs to be expanded by another row of counties as well as monitoring precipitation rates to make sure the event isn't overperforming. Model guidance been fairly consistent in showing a tight gradient with the streak of higher accumulations from Southeast Alabama into South-Central Georgia, remaining just south and east of our forecast area.

Chilly conditions will continue for the next few days as we remain under the influence of persistent northwesterly flow. Tuesday morning will be our coldest with lows ranging from the teens north to mid 20s south. A warming trend will begin on Wednesday as flow aloft becomes more zonal in response to a broad but lower amplitude trough axis over the Central CONUS. A weak cold front is forecast to bring some showers to the area on Thursday with the pattern remaining active going into the weekend as the southern stream portion of the jet becomes slightly more active over Mexico and Texas.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026

Precip is beginning to shift east of AUO and MGM, but may briefly see -SN for another hour or so. Expect VFR conditions to continue through this TAF period with dry air surging in from the west which will help to clear our skies from west to east. Expect west to northwesterly sfc winds at 5 to 8 kts with occasional gusts up to 15 kts this afternoon.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Dry air is filtering in from the west which will result in sunny conditions today. MinRH values will drop into the 30-35% range today and tomorrow afternoon. The forecast will remain cool and dry for the next few days. RH values are forecast to drop below critical thresholds on Tuesday, into the 20-25% range, for most of Central Alabama. We will have persistent westerly to northwesterly 20ft winds through tomorrow with speeds of 5 to 8 mph during the day and calm at night. Winds will take a more north-northeasterly heading on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 41 22 45 16 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 41 23 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 41 25 45 21 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 43 24 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 43 24 49 20 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 43 27 49 24 / 30 0 0 0 Montgomery 45 24 51 23 / 20 0 0 0 Troy 45 25 51 24 / 30 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following counties: Barbour-Pike-Russell.