textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026

- Medium to high chances for high temperatures reaching near record levels through late week.

- A cold front will move into the area by Saturday and will bring cooler temperatures, but the magnitude of the cool down remains uncertain.

- Dry conditions remain throughout the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 100 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026

Mid to upper level ridging will remain centered to our southwest today and Wednesday, then will move northeast over the area on Thursday ahead of a longwave trough that will dive southeast over the Northern Plains and will swing east over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Region by Friday. Elongated surface high pressure currently extends from across the Northern Gulf Coast northeast into the Southern Appalachians and will migrate southeast through late week, expending from across Southern Alabama eastward to offshore of the Southeast Atlantic Coast as strong high pressure builds south into the Northern Plains and a cold front advances southeast across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley Region.

High temperatures through late week will near the established records for this time of year as listed in the climate section of this discussion. The temperature difference will be great between the cool overnights and the very warm afternoons thanks to lower humidity and mostly sunny skies through late week. The cold front will move into the area Friday afternoon and evening in mostly dry fashion due to the lack of moisture return ahead of this system along with much of the support aloft being located well to the northeast of the area. Behind the front, strong and expansive surface high pressure will build into much of the Plains, Deep South, Midwest and Ohio River Valley Regions over the weekend with a strong cool air advection regime.

05

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Surface high pressure extends from across the Northern Gulf Coast northeast into Eastern Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina with clear skies and fairly light low-level winds. Expect clear skies today and tonight followed by only a few high clouds on Wednesday. Low- level winds will be from the northwest at 3-6 kts followed by near calm conditions overnight then from the southwest at 4-8 kts on Wednesday.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will continue areawide this week. Surface high pressure centered across the area will result in light winds 5-10 mph at most each day with near calm winds expected in the overnight hours. Minimum RH values will range from the upper 20 percent range far southwest to readings near the 40 percent range this afternoon. Expect minimum RH values to range from the upper 20 percent range southwest to the mid 30 percent range far north and far east on Wednesday afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Tue Oct. 13: KBHM: 89/1953 KEET: 89/2017 KANB: 90/1954 KTCL: 90/1963

Wed Oct. 14: KBHM: 89/1984 KEET: 89/2016 KANB: 88/1975 KTCL: 90/1962 KMGM: 91/1883

Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881

Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 63 90 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 60 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 60 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 61 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 59 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.