textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

- Mainly dry conditions expected this week with seasonable temperatures.

- Fire danger will be somewhat elevated the next couple of days due to recent dryness, lower RH values, and an increase in winds, but sub-critical conditions are expected.

- Considerable drought conditions are expected to worsen through early next week with a high chance for much warmer temperatures to develop.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

High cirrus clouds continue to stream northeastward over the deep south as a shortwave moves eastward along the northern Gulf Coast. All rain will be well to to south as a result, with a broad surface ridge extending eastward to the southern Appalachians. Northerly to northeasterly pressure gradient winds will continue through this afternoon prevailing between 5 and 10mph with a few gusts above 15mph at times. The cool and dry northerly flow will allow for dewpoints to mix down into the low and mid 30s by this afternoon as highs top out near 70 degrees. As was discussed overnight, fire weather conditions will certainly be on the forefront over the next seven days with very little to no rainfall expected. Another dry surface front is expected to move in from the northeast during the day on Tuesday, reinforcing the dry airmass across the southeast. If winds are any higher than currently forecast, we'll be close to critical fire weather conditions both on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Even though we had measurable rain over the weekend, fuels remain quite dry due to the considerable drought conditions.

By the middle of the week, a strong 1039mb surface ridge centered over New England will keep surface winds out of the east and maintain our cool and dry regime. As the 500mb ridge becomes centered over the western Atlantic by the end of the week, we'll see additional moisture streaming in aloft with a weak shortwave. With the CAD surface boundary still in place to our south, guidance is hinting at a very small chance for a few showers developing mainly along and south of the I-85 corridor Wednesday night through early Thursday morning, but most folks should remain dry. Global guidance continues to trend toward upper level height rises by the end of the week. A 588-591 decameter ridge is advertised to develop over the southwestern Gulf and build northeastward by the end of the weekend and into next week. Highs in the mid 80s certainly appear likely at this point by Sunday and Monday of next week with zero indications of any rainfall.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Northerly to northeasterly winds will prevail around 10 knots with a few higher gusts this afternoon. Following calm or variable winds overnight tonight, winds will become more easterly during the afternoon on Tuesday and perhaps a few higher gusts between 15 and 20 knots at times.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected for much of this week with high pressure dominating the pattern. RH values will continue to drop into the 25-35 percent range today and tomorrow afternoon with 20ft wind gusts up to 15 mph out of the north today and northeast by Tuesday. RH values increase slightly to the 30-35 percent range Wednesday afternoon, while easterly 20ft wind gusts increase to around 15-20 mph, highest gusts southeast. Although conditions are still expected to remain below red flag thresholds, ongoing drought conditions will keep fuels very dry. Any fires could spread quickly due to the prevailing breezy conditions that are forecast. Conditions will be closely monitored over the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 43 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 69 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 70 49 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 71 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 71 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 68 49 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 70 46 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 68 47 77 51 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.