textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026

- Thunderstorms: Unsettled pattern continues heading into the work week with isolated to scattered showers and storms, some strong at times with gusty winds and heavy downpours. There is a marginal risk for the far northeast portions of Central Alabama early Monday morning.

- Heat: Dangerous heat indices up to 110 degrees are expected Monday and Tuesday; a Heat Advisory is in effect starting Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening paints a fairly active picture across the country with an upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS and a stout upper ridge out west. In between these two features, a shortwave is moving into the Tennessee Valley. As of writing, this shortwave is currently guiding a southward moving MCS into northern Alabama. When timing out the ongoing MCS, it should be on our doorstep around 2 AM. The RRFS seems to have a better handle on the timing. Meanwhile, the recent HRRR hints at this cluster fizzling out with additional activity developing in the mid morning hours. We will be keeping an eye on the trends over the next several hours. Scattered showers and storms will be likely through the early afternoon hours Monday as activity redevelops along lingering boundaries. The main threats tonight through Monday afternoon will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. Latest CAMs place the heaviest rainfall to the east of I-65 with a few pockets of 2-3" through the morning hours. This would lead to some localized flash flooding.

Upper level ridging begins to shift east as we head through the work week. Several bouts of H5 energy will rotate along the eastern periphery of the ridge, leading to additional rounds of showers and storms late Tuesday into Wednesday. The main story for the week will be our increasing temperatures. High temps on Monday look to climb into the low to mid 90s, further increasing into the upper 90s to around 100 on Tuesday. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s will lead to major heat risk for the majority of Central Alabama. Went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for Monday afternoon for the western half of the area. The increased speed of the MCS should allow us to warm up efficiently through the day Monday. With that said, the second round of convection during the day may lead to some cooler conditions for those lucky enough to catch a shower or storm. Conditions outside of any convection will be hot and humid. A Heat Advisory is already in effect for Tuesday as it looks to be our hottest and most uncomfortable day of the week with heat indices up around 110 for some. Therefore, opted to run Monday's Advisory through the night until it expands Tuesday morning. By mid-week, the ridge appears to become slightly suppressed as a trough builds over the East Coast. This pattern change will allow for slightly cooler temperatures to filter in from the north, with highs trending toward the upper- 80s and low-90s by next Friday.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026

VFR conditions continue through the majority of this TAF cycle. Winds will remain light and variable, eventually shifting to the north during the afternoon hours Monday. A decaying cluster of storms is currently moving through northern Alabama. There is some uncertainty as to how far south this activity makes it and when it redevelops. Therefore, transitioned the TEMPO group to a PROB30 to account for a slightly larger time window for BHM/EET/TCL. AUO/MGM remain on track with activity making it there by mid morning. Brief MVFR ceilings, reduced visibility, and gusty winds are likely with any passing shower or storm.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 74 96 75 / 50 0 10 30 Anniston 91 74 94 75 / 50 0 10 30 Birmingham 94 76 97 77 / 60 10 0 20 Tuscaloosa 96 77 98 78 / 40 10 0 10 Calera 97 75 100 77 / 60 10 0 10 Auburn 91 75 95 78 / 60 10 0 10 Montgomery 96 75 98 78 / 40 10 0 10 Troy 95 74 97 77 / 40 20 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas- Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay- Cleburne-Coosa-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Pike-Randolph-Russell-St. Clair- Talladega-Tallapoosa.