textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026

- Heat Impact: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through midweek, maintaining an elevated heat risk. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Wednesday.

- Precipitation: Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase from late morning through the afternoon, initially affecting the east and southeast counties before progressing southwest. Some storms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Additional strong to marginally severe storms may develop Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1116 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026

Mid-level ridging will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley Region through late Wednesday before migrating northeast, becoming centered over the Mid-Atlantic States through Friday followed by gradual weakening over the weekend. Surface high pressure is presently centered across the Central Gulf Coast Region while a stationary front extends from far Eastern Kentucky southeast to near Savannah, Georgia. Expect the surface front to lose definition through the day Tuesday while surface high pressure strengthens across the Northeast and into the Mid- Atlantic Region. As a result, the weakening "back-door cold front" will be forced southwest into our area during the day Tuesday while the environment becomes quite unstable in the lower levels with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and high humidity. Ample low-level instability beneath sufficient drier air aloft will favor wet microburst activity that would result in a damaging wind threat, though this convection will be propagating southwest with time. The highest shower and storm potential will initially be across our east-central and southeast counties through midday, then expanding west and southwest with time. Outside of the shower and thunderstorm activity, heat indices will continue to exceed 100 degrees in most places. A Heat Advisory will continue through Wednesday evening.

Convective activity is expected to migrate toward the southwest- central portion of the Gulf Coast Region by the evening hours with only some scattered clouds overnight across the southern counties. It will remain humid and very warm overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s, prolonging heat risk effects as heat index values will again exceed 100 degrees on Wednesday. With the ridging migrating to our northeast and weakening, we will see better opportunities for at least isolated shower and storm chances across the area from mid week into the upcoming weekend as high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s during this time frame.

05

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the morning. A brief window of MVFR fog persists at EET and TCL, with the addition of MGM. Cumulus clouds will develop by late morning, with showers and thunderstorms initiating across the east and southeast counties, moving west throughout the afternoon. The greatest potential impact is at AUO and MGM, with possible impacts at EET. Most activity will dissipate by 03Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the southern two- thirds of Central Alabama today, with the highest potential in the southeast and southern areas. Activity will decrease across northern and central counties by early evening. Additional storms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, with the greatest potential in the northern and central areas. Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees through midweek, driven by high humidity and temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s. Fire weather concerns remain low, as humidity levels will stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 97 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 10 Anniston 95 76 94 75 / 30 20 30 10 Birmingham 98 78 96 77 / 20 20 30 10 Tuscaloosa 97 78 96 77 / 20 20 30 10 Calera 98 77 96 76 / 30 20 30 10 Auburn 93 76 92 75 / 50 30 20 0 Montgomery 95 76 94 75 / 50 30 20 0 Troy 93 74 92 73 / 60 30 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Cherokee-Chilton-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair- Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Pike- Randolph-Russell-Talladega-Tallapoosa.