textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 654 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026

- Strong Storms: Expect isolated to scattered convection across northeastern areas early this evening.

- Cooler, Drier Early Fall Pattern: A noticeably cooler and drier air mass settles across Central AL for Thursday evening through the weekend, bringing daytime highs in the lower-to-middle 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals a trough swinging across the Tennessee Valley as an upper level ridge builds out to our west. At the surface, a cold front can be seen draped across Central Alabama. As we head through the day, a mid-level vort max will rotate around the base of the upper trough. This will trigger another round of isolated to scattered convection this afternoon and evening across our northeastern areas. Increased cloud cover this morning will help limit our instability through the day. However, forecast soundings continue to hint at around 1000 J/kg CAPE and a profile supportive of damaging wind gusts. Convection will wane through the evening hours as our upper level support peels off to the northeast and drier air begins filtering across the region. We continue with low chances for showers and storms on Thursday as moisture wraps around the backside of the trough. Most locations are likely to remain dry tomorrow. Upper level ridging then takes control of the region, leaving us dry through the weekend.

This afternoon will be our warmest day of the week with highs settling into the upper 80s to mid 90s. A much needed cool down is in store for the rest of the week as high temperatures top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The most noticeable change will be our overnight temps with lows dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s by the end of the work week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026

VFR conditions with winds of 7 to 10 knots are in place across all terminals. Isolated convection is expected to linger through the evening. However, confidence is low regarding any direct impacts to the terminals, with the exception of -SHRA at MGM late this evening. Low-level stratus is likely areawide Thursday morning. Therefore, we made the conditions dominant after 08Z and lowered ceilings to 1500 feet in a TEMPO group for all sites from 11 to 15Z based on the latest consensus guidance. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through 00Z, returning to VFR after 17 to 18Z.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, followed by drier conditions arriving Thursday evening and continuing through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity (MinRH) values will remain between 40% and 60% through the end of the week. However, drier air will build in over the weekend, with MinRHs in the 30-40% range Saturday and Sunday. Winds are expected to remain generally light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 63 81 59 82 / 50 0 0 0 Anniston 65 80 58 80 / 40 0 0 0 Birmingham 67 83 61 84 / 30 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 68 87 63 88 / 10 10 0 0 Calera 67 84 60 85 / 30 10 0 0 Auburn 66 79 60 80 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 69 84 62 84 / 40 0 0 0 Troy 67 84 60 84 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.