textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

- Areas of dense fog will continue across central Alabama this morning.

- There is a medium to high chance of freezing temperatures Sunday night, focused on the northern half of Central Alabama. A freeze across all of Central Alabama is expected Monday night. Breezy conditions Monday morning will result in wind chill values as low as the upper 10s for the northern third of Central Alabama.

- Breezy conditions combined with low relative humidities may result in increased fire danger on Monday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday) Issued at 123 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

Today and Tonight:

Broad troughing covers much of the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by a deep upper low near Hudson Bay. A cold front is currently moving into the area and will stall out this morning. Several bands of showers and a couple storms continue ahead of the front. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kts remain conditionally favorable for a severe storm, however veering and weakening low-level flow suggest the threat has essentially ended. Abundant low-level moisture along and ahead of the front is resulting in low clouds and fog. Montgomery reported dense fog earlier and Auburn is currently reporting dense fog, where a dense fog advisory is currently in effect. Guidance is fairly insistent on dense fog developing across our southern and western counties. Will probably end up expanding the advisory again, however the low clouds and showers preclude a pre-emptive expansion at this time.

The front will eventually begin to lift back to the north as a warm front today. A moist air mass, a weak 700mb disturbance, and isentropic lift will result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at times. Instability and shear will remain conditionally favorable for a severe storm, but weak height rises/lack of upper support will preclude any organized severe threat, along with the potential for persistent low clouds to limit instability. The well-advertised strong cold front will move in after midnight tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible, but upper forcing will lag well behind the front.

Sunday through Monday Night:

Strong cold air advection will move in Sunday behind the front with breezy northwest winds, and continue Sunday night. Leaned toward the raw model guidance for lows Sunday night with winds staying up. This will prevent frost formation. Low temperatures will drop below freezing across the northern half of the area, and have issued a freeze watch there. Wind chills will be in the 20s areawide Monday morning, with some upper teens in the far northern counties. A very raw day is expected on Monday. Record "cool highs" will be in jeopardy; see the climate section for more details. Low RH values in the southern counties combined with the strong winds may cause some fire weather concerns. The Euro and its ensembles remain an outlier with a smaller-scale upper low moving further south than other guidance, but represent an alternative scenario where non-impactful flurries or light snow showers could clip our far northeast counties. Surface ridge axis moves in Monday night resulting in favorable radiational cooling conditions. This will put an end to the growing season with lows well into the 20s, near or below record lows.

Tuesday through Friday:

The cold snap will be short-lived with warming temperatures through the week. A weak front may move into the area but remain moisture-starved due to dry northwest flow aloft.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

Lots of low ceilings and low visibilities creating IFR conditions this morning. The ceiling lift and visibility improvement processes will both be slow this morning, and it may take a couple to several hours (through 16z to 18z) to get into MVFR and eventually VFR flight conditions. Once into VFR, conditions should remain that way through the rest of the day, with broken clouds around 4000 or 5000 ft. Rain chances at any particular terminal are around 20-30 percent. I've opted to leave out any PROB30 or TEMPO groups for now, for brevity's sake. That can be reevaluated once the fog and low clouds lift.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

Moist conditions continue today and tonight with scattered showers and storms. A strong cold front moves through Sunday with breezy northwest winds. By Monday RH values may drop below 25 percent for a couple hours in isolated spots in far southern portions of Central Alabama, with values in the 25 to 35 percent range elsewhere. 20ft wind gusts will be at or above 20 mph resulting in some fire weather concerns. RH values drop into the 20 to 30 percent range on Tuesday but winds will be much lighter.

CLIMATE

Issued at 123 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

November 10: KEET: 30/1996

November 11: KBHM: 25/1926 KEET: 27/1996 KANB: 24/1950 KTCL: 26/1953 KMGM: 29/1991

Record Cold High Temperatures:

November 10: KBHM: 46/1950 KEET: 50/2018 KANB: 47/1950 KTCL: 51/1977 KMGM: 55/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 52 59 29 / 30 30 10 0 Anniston 74 54 59 30 / 40 30 10 0 Birmingham 75 53 59 31 / 30 30 0 0 Tuscaloosa 77 51 60 32 / 30 30 0 0 Calera 77 53 62 31 / 30 30 0 0 Auburn 76 60 67 34 / 30 40 20 0 Montgomery 79 59 67 35 / 20 40 10 0 Troy 79 61 69 36 / 20 30 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar- Marion-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.