textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026

- There is a low (level 1 out of 5) marginal risk for severe storms Friday night through Saturday. Quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. - Above normal temperatures continue into the first half of the weekend.

- Increased rain chances are expected for the end of the work week through the first half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026

Satellite is showing mostly cloudy conditions today with a few peaks of sun here and there. We have generous Gulf moisture present in the lower levels with a nice S/SW flow with gusty winds. Low rain chances will be present this afternoon and evening with minor disturbances traversing through the upper SW flow ahead of an approaching front. A low pressure system is present across MO today with a frontal boundary extending S and SW from it across AR and into TX. The low will move NEWD toward the Great Lakes through tonight and drag a frontal boundary E/SEWD into the SE US and midway through C AL by daybreak on Fri. Rain chances will increase tonight into Fri across C AL in advance of this front. The front should slow down/stall across the SRN half of the CWA Fri into Sat before finally pushing through Sat night. A few tstorms may occur Fri into Sat ahead of the front. There is a low 1/5 marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms late Fri night into the pre-dawn hours Sat across the NRN half of C AL with quarter size hail being the main threat. A second round with a low 1/5 marginal risk will be present for the SRN half of C AL for during the day Sat into Sat evening with hail and gusty winds being the main threats. Much cooler weather will be ushered into the area behind the system for Sun morning into the beginning of next week with lows back below freezing for most for Sun night and Mon night. Finally, rain chances return again by the end of the extended for late next Wed.

08

Previous discussion: (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening reveals upper level ridging retreating to the southeast as an upper trough prepares to eject out of the Four Corners region and slide across the Plains. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed parked across Texas and Arkansas. Ahead of this boundary, low level moisture will continue to increase across the state. This will likely lead to patchy fog once again tomorrow morning. Latest RAP guidance supports this as it hints at a few pockets of condensation pressure deficits down to the 5-10mb range through sunrise. Any fog that does develop likely won't last too long past sunrise as southwesterly winds begin to pick up. While chances are low, wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated light showers through the day Thursday as increased isentropic lift combines with several H85-H7 impulses that rotate through the region.

The aforementioned cold front begins to head our way Thursday night into Friday morning. Rain chances ramp up as we close out the work week as this boundary runs into a healthy plume of Gulf moisture. The front eventually stalls out across the CWA and lingers through most of the weekend. As a result, we could see a few pockets of heavier rainfall as low level moisture convergence axis becomes established. With that said, our warm cloud depth doesn't look too impressive so would expect much of this activity to be relatively light. Overall, rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" can be expected through the weekend. Lastly, we will need to monitor for a few stronger storms Friday night and Saturday as a corridor of CAPE values from 400-700 J/kg spreads across the southern half of the state. However, we will be lacking upper level support that far south.

By Sunday, another upper trough digs south across the TN Valley. An associated surface high pressure will provide enough of a nudge to push the stalled boundary south of the area. Cooler and drier conditions are in store in the wake of the boundary. Monday and Tuesday mornings are looking pretty chilly with lows in the 20s and 30s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026

VFR conditions are back in place across all terminals. MVFR conditions return overnight, generally after 06Z. There is a low chance of some IFR cigs at times, but not confident to add ATTM. Low rain chances are present this afternoon and evening, but are too low to include in TAFs. The better chances begins after midnight and on through the morning. Will only include -SHRA ATTM. TS probs are too low. Outside of that, gradient winds will be S-SW 8-15kts and gusty this afternoon into tonight. Winds shift to WNW-NW on Fri morning, but not as high or gusty.

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FIRE WEATHER

Increased moisture this afternoon will help keep min RH values in the 50-60% range. We will need to keep a close eye on Friday. As a cold front stalls across the state, much drier air will filter into the northern half of the area. Min RHs on Friday will drop down to near 30% across our northern areas. At this time, winds look to remain light enough to negate fire weather concerns. RHs rebound back into the 50-70% range on Saturday. The front finally pushes through on Sunday with much drier air spreading across the state. Min RH values will fall into the 20-30% range daily Sunday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 57 74 51 / 20 80 20 80 Anniston 78 60 74 54 / 30 70 30 80 Birmingham 78 60 74 56 / 30 70 20 90 Tuscaloosa 80 59 75 56 / 20 70 20 90 Calera 80 60 76 57 / 20 70 20 90 Auburn 78 65 75 63 / 20 50 60 80 Montgomery 81 65 77 64 / 20 50 60 70 Troy 80 65 78 64 / 10 40 50 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.