textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: There is level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern portions of Alabama both today and Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have been developing late this morning to the south of a stalled boundary across our far southern CWA. Similar to the last few days, an upper level shortwave will rotate through the region between a trough to our northeast and a ridge out to our west. This will help trigger additional convection across our southern areas through the afternoon and evening hours. As we warm up through the day, conditions will become favorable for damaging wind gusts. There is low risk for more organized convection across our southwestern counties as storms move south across Mississippi through the day. Activity will become more isolated across our southeastern areas. Therefore, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the southern half of the state through late this evening. The lingering boundary will begin to lift north late in the day Tuesday, spreading deeper moisture back north across the state. Before it begins its journey, another round of isolated convection is likely across the southern part of Alabama. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with this activity. In addition to the severe threat, high PWATs (around 2") will support heavy rainfall with any storm, leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.

By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-70%) chances for showers and storms late this work week and into the weekend.

High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Continued humid conditions will warrant a low to moderate heat risk for most through the next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place and are likely to continue through this TAF cycle. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across the southern half of the state this afternoon. Low confidence in timing/coverage supports only a PROB30 group at AUO and MGM through early this evening. Otherwise, west-northwest winds from 7-10 knots will become light and variable overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air will be slow to vacate the area with lower minimum relative humidity values (35 to 45%) lingering for some locations through Tuesday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins as we head into midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 30 Anniston 66 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 30 Birmingham 70 93 72 93 / 0 0 10 30 Tuscaloosa 72 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 40 Calera 70 94 71 93 / 0 0 10 30 Auburn 71 92 72 91 / 0 10 10 30 Montgomery 72 96 72 96 / 10 20 10 30 Troy 71 95 71 94 / 10 30 10 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.