textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026

- Significant Heat Risk: A warming trend will push heat indices to 105-108 each afternoon this week, with Heat Advisories likely needed from Wednesday and onward.

- Tropical Weather: An area of low pressure in the Gulf will continue to move west, with no tropical impacts expected across Central Alabama. Most shower and thunderstorm activity will remain confined near the central Gulf Coast.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026

The region remains under the influence of a large upper ridge. To our south, an area of low pressure over the Northern Gulf will continue to track westward over the next couple of days. The NHC has issued an advisory for a Potential Tropical Cyclone, which may strengthen into a tropical storm tonight as it nears the southwest Louisiana/Upper Texas coast. As we head through the work week, the upper ridge will expand eastward, steering the tropical system westward across the Gulf.

Drier air and increased subsidence will maintain mainly rain-free conditions across the central third of the area. We anticipate low chances for diurnally driven convection across our southern areas where moisture remains elevated. Across the far north, speckled showers may develop within an outer convergence zone. While severe weather is not expected due to minimal wind shear, sufficient instability exists to support an isolated stronger storm during peak heating.

A warming trend begins this week, with temperatures climbing into the mid-to-upper 90s by midweek. Humid conditions will push heat indices to 105-108 each afternoon, likely necessitating daily Heat Advisories. Probabilistic heat risk data indicates a 50-60% chance of major or higher heat risk heading into Labor Day Weekend. We will increase heat safety messaging throughout the week; emphasize the importance of hydration and limiting outdoor exposure.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast period. Winds will be around 5-8 knots out of the east this afternoon. Mostly clear and mainly calm conditions are forecast through 12z Tuesday morning, then increasing winds again in the late morning.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 40% through the work week. Low (10 to 20%) chances for showers and storms will continue daily. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next week as winds remain light. However soil conditions are drying out and drought may increase through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 96 73 96 / 10 10 10 0 Anniston 70 94 72 94 / 10 10 10 10 Birmingham 73 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 74 97 75 98 / 10 10 10 0 Calera 72 95 73 95 / 10 10 10 0 Auburn 72 92 74 93 / 10 10 0 10 Montgomery 74 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 10 Troy 72 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.