textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 803 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Saturday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Saturday.

- Thunderstorms: Northern portions of the region are under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 131 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

The main upper-level ridge center point continues to break down, allowing for us to enter into the weekend under a much more disorganized pattern. With that being said, things won't change all that much for us at the surface level. Hot and humid conditions are expected through the weekend, keeping afternoon instability values very high. This will allow for scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorm activity to remain in the forecast, with most of this activity starting to decrease once the sun sets. Given the "copy and paste" nature of this parameter space, the threat for a strong to severe storm in the afternoon remains, albeit with lower probabilities. Damaging winds remain the main threat, in the event one does end up becoming severe.

The upper-level pattern will become slightly more organized by late Sunday afternoon, as a weak trough begins to move through the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The tail end of this trough should work into the Tennessee river valley during this time, increasing rain chances across the region into Monday. A very welcomed side effect to this increase in precipitation will be the increased cloud cover that comes along with it. Because of this, afternoon high temperatures should start to slowly drop into the low-90's by Tuesday, with a few locations dropping into the upper-80's. This is where high temperatures look to settle, with low-90's expected for much of the upcoming workweek. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms remain in the forecast as well, favoring the aforementioned diurnally driven activity we're expecting for most of the weekend.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

A few lingering SHRA and TSRA are ongoing across the northern third of Central Alabama, and should deteriorate by 2z. There is a mention for BHM and EET where this is applicable. Otherwise, winds will go light and variable after sunset and storms end. There are low to moderate chances of MVFR VSBYs toward morning. I have a TEMPO for TCL, EET, and AUO for a few hours before sunrise. Isolated convection is expected on Saturday for the 4th, but chances are too low to pinpoint at any of the terminals at this time.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into next week, with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 20 60 Anniston 74 94 74 93 / 20 20 20 60 Birmingham 76 95 75 94 / 30 20 20 60 Tuscaloosa 76 95 75 93 / 20 20 20 60 Calera 75 97 75 96 / 20 20 20 60 Auburn 75 94 75 92 / 20 20 20 40 Montgomery 76 95 76 94 / 20 20 20 50 Troy 74 95 74 93 / 10 20 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne-Lee-Macon-Pike- Randolph-Russell.