textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026

- A medium to high chance for showers is forecast through Saturday morning with better potential south.

- A medium chance for below average temperatures is forecast with dry conditions returning Sunday through the early in the day on Tuesday.

- A low to medium chance for showers and some thunderstorm activity is forecast Tuesday night into Thursday as another storm system moves into the area.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026

This afternoon a stationary boundary is situated along the Gulf Coast. A second reinforcing cold front is present to our N. In the upper levels, a strong low pressure is centered over the boundary of Ontario and Quebec with a shortwave over the desert SW and zonal flow into AL. Through the short term, the Canadian low will continue further into Quebec. As it does so, the upper shortwave will weaken over the WRN US as yet a 3rd low digs across the Pacific US Coast. At the same time, weak perturbations from the shortwave will push EWD through the zonal flow across AL. This will result in medium to high chances of showery activity spreading across C AL, being widespread at times, now through Sat morning until the wave moves out.

The shortwave will exit the area Sat afternoon with rain-free and pleasant spring conditions in its wake for Sat night through Tue. Temperatures will slowly warm for the first part of next week as our airmass moderates and the surface ridge weakens. Another storm system and associated cold front will approach the Deep South late Tue. A low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms will be present for the middle of next week along and ahead of the front.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026

We currently have VFR conditions across the area this afternoon. Cigs will become MVFR from SSW to NNE after 00z as overall moisture increases and showers become more widespread due to an upper shortwave. There is medium to high confidence that all sites will be at least MVFR by 6z, with the MGM/AUO becoming IFR around the same time where the best overall moisture will be present. MVFR visibilities will occur at times overnight with moderate showers. During the last 6 hours of the TAF, showers will taper off from NW to SE as the system exits with conditions improving.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

A medium to high chance for showers is forecast through Saturday morning, with best potential across the southern portion of the area. Drier conditions return again for Sunday through Tuesday with RH minimums in the lower to upper 30 percent range by Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon. The next storm system will arrive Tuesday night and continue into Thursday with low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 48 68 40 71 / 70 20 0 0 Anniston 49 68 42 71 / 90 40 0 0 Birmingham 51 69 45 71 / 80 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 50 72 45 74 / 90 20 0 0 Calera 50 71 44 74 / 90 30 0 0 Auburn 53 67 47 71 / 100 60 0 0 Montgomery 52 69 44 72 / 100 50 0 0 Troy 51 68 43 71 / 100 60 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.