textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1149 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025

- There are high chances (70-80%) for dense fog to develop across our southern counties this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect until 10 AM.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected into the weekend, with highs running 15-20 degrees above average, and lows running 15 degrees above average.

- A front is currently forecast to sweep across the region on Monday, swinging temperatures back to below normal to start next week.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1149 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025

A foggy Christmas morning is in store for many of us. A zone of coastal fog is visible on night fog satellite imagery, and HREF probabilities are indicating high chances (70-80%) for the fog to develop inland during the pre-dawn hours as far north as the Birmingham metro. A Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect through 10 AM for the southern half of the forecast area, and we will watch trends to see if any counties need to be added to the north of the current Advisory area. Otherwise, ridging and associated high pressure across the region will contribute to an anomalously warm Christmas Day with highs in the mid to upper 70s expected to occur each day through Sunday. There will be a mix of sun and clouds during this time.

Our next chance of rain is set to arrive on Monday as an upper-level low moves east across Canada and the Northern CONUS, reaching the Great Lakes region at the beginning of next week. This system has trended slower, and PoPs are now primarily focused on Monday with some rain possible in the northwest as early as Sunday night. A strong cold front will pass through the area and temperatures will take a sharp turn in the opposite direction with highs and lows forecast to be well below normal on Tuesday.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025

Patchy fog has begun to develop across the area, and some minor reductions in visibility have begun at a few of the TAF sites. Expect aviation impacts to increase over the next several hours as dense fog and IFR ceilings become more widespread. A couple bands of high-level clouds may delay this in some spots, but guidance is still in strong agreement on the reduced visibilities. Conditions will improve slowly after sunrise, and VFR criteria should return by midday through the afternoon.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

A rain-free forecast is expected to continue through the weekend with persisting drought conditions. However, minRH will remain well above critical thresholds through the week with southwesterly 20ft winds around 5 to 8 kts. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances on Monday in addition to much lower RHs thereafter.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1255 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 24: KBHM: 77/1964 KEET: 74/2016 KANB: 78/1964 KTCL: 86/2019 KMGM: 79/2016

December 25: KBHM: 78/2016 KEET: 79/2016 KANB: 78/2015 KTCL: 80/2016 KMGM: 82/2016

December 26: KBHM: 76/2021 KEET: 75/2016 KANB: 78/2015 KTCL: 75/2021 KMGM: 82/2015

December 27: KBHM: 77/2015 KEET: 77/2015 KANB: 76/2015 KTCL: 79/2015 KMGM: 80/2016

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 50 74 52 73 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 52 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 54 73 55 73 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 53 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 52 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 54 75 54 72 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 53 75 54 75 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 52 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CST Thursday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Dallas- Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry- Pickens-Pike-Russell-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.