textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 457 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026

- Medium chances of patchy dense fog developing in the southeast by Sunday morning.

- Well above-normal temperatures return next week.

- A period of rain-free weather is forecast through mid-week with another chance for rain late in the week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026

Sunshine has returned to Central Alabama with a pleasant afternoon expected as high pressure builds across the region. Expect the broad region of high pressure to center over the East Coast tomorrow which will cause surface winds to shift back to the south- southeast with flow aloft becoming more zonal as broad, low amplitude mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf. This will result in warming conditions over the next few days with well- above average temperatures returning again. Highs will range from the upper 60s to middle 70s through most of the week after tomorrow.

A mid to low-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Tuesday which will support weak surface convergence over the Tennessee Valley. We may see some light rain over parts of the area Tuesday evening. Otherwise, a more organized system is still forecast to develop over the Four Corners on Thursday and quickly eject across the Great Plains towards the Ohio Valley region by the end of the work week. This evolution has the markings of a severe risk, but the pre-frontal environment from global modeling still looks unimpressive and temporally inconsistent (not unusual this far out). We're just monitoring trends for now.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the early night, with models bringing low level moisture and at least MVFR ceilings prevailing at all TAF sites by early morning. Areas in the south, including KMGM and KAUO could reach as low as IFR conditions, with a few models indicating a possibility for LIFR visibilities through the early morning. While conditions are expected to improve by mid morning at all TAF sites, models are trending lower with ceilings and visibilities, so tried to show that trend in the TAFs. Right now kept ceilings as VFR through the afternoon and early evening, though MVFR ceilings could occur if models continue on the low level high humidity trend.

24

FIRE WEATHER

No fire weather concerns for the next several days as Min RHs remain in the 40-60% range. A warming trend is expected through the week with increasing moisture advection to the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 36 64 44 66 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 40 65 47 67 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 42 63 49 67 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 42 65 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 41 65 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 46 64 50 69 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 44 67 51 74 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 45 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.