textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

- Warm conditions are expected again on Tuesday with highs near 90 degrees.

- Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesday night into Wednesday and continue through the weekend, with the highest (40-70%) chances in northern and western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

- High moisture levels will support periods of heavy rain, though total amounts are anticipated to be light (1 to 2 inches across the area).

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026

Over the last few hours, we have been watching a few thunderstorms work up the I-65 corridor. A H7 shortwave has been helping guide this activity within a plume of healthy moisture advecting north across the state. These storms are likely to wane over the next hour or two. While chances are low (20-30%), I wouldn't be surprised to see patchy fog develop late tonight, especially in locations that saw rain this afternoon and evening.

As we head through the day Tuesday, the upper ridge off to our east will begin to be suppressed as a stout upper trough slides across the Plains. An associated cold front will slowly move towards the southeast, eventually stalling just off to our west. Convection is likely to develop along and ahead of the boundary through the day Tuesday. Latest CAMs continue to hint at this activity decaying before making it into Central Alabama. We will need to monitor trends and any lingering outflow boundaries that may keep this activity going a bit longer and making it into our northwest counties.

We will hang onto low to moderate chances for showers and storms daily Wednesday through the end of the week as several shortwaves traverse through the southwesterly flow aloft and interact with the stalled boundary. PWATs will remain elevated through the end of the week, generally in the 1.7-1.9" range which will help support periods of heavy rainfall. Despite the prolonged period of increased rain chances, rainfall amounts are not too impressive, roughly 1-2" across the area. While widespread severe storms are not expected, we could see a few stronger storms develop as we reach peak heating each afternoon. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving plentiful moisture in place. Continued bouts of upper level energy will keep moderate rain chances in the forecast.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight will become south to southeast 5-10kts with mixing during the day today. Rain chances return Tuesday evening in the west to give a low probability at TCL for rain. Will leave out for now from the TCL terminal. Chances are better during the day Wednesday.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are in store for much of the day Tuesday with minRHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon. Rain chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday and continue into the weekend as a front stalls near the region, with higher Min RH values. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 88 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 50 Anniston 88 65 87 64 / 10 0 50 30 Birmingham 89 70 87 67 / 0 10 60 50 Tuscaloosa 90 69 88 67 / 0 20 40 40 Calera 90 67 89 66 / 0 10 40 50 Auburn 89 69 89 67 / 0 0 30 10 Montgomery 90 69 89 68 / 0 10 20 20 Troy 90 68 89 67 / 10 10 40 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.