textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

- There are low chances for a brief rain/snow mix or light snow across our far southeastern counties early Sunday morning. Minor accumulation of one tenth of an inch or less is forecast for portions of Barbour and Russell counties. - Numerous to widespread showers will end this morning as a cold front moves east of the area. - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Through Friday) Issued at 1249 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

The cold front and a corridor of light rainfall is currently progressing through the Birmingham metro. The rain will begin to shift east of the forecast area by early to mid morning. Conditions will be dry for most of the day with some lingering cloud cover and a light northwest wind. A secondary mid to upper- level low will rotate across the Upper Midwest today which will produce additional forcing and rainfall across the Gulf Coast region this evening. Latest model guidance, both global and short term, continues to suggest the bulk of redevelopment will occur to our south and east in the form of rain Saturday night into Sunday while a drier airmass situates over Central Alabama. Our far southeastern counties may catch a bit of that rain this evening, followed by a brief transition to a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning once temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s near and south of Interstate 85. Fortunately, the short duration is expected to limit the scope of impacts and overall snow accumulation. We're currently forecasting minor amounts of one tenth of an inch or less for a very small portion of Barbour and Russell counties, and probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25" (Winter Weather Advisory criteria) continues to decrease spatially, now at about 10-20% for those two counties. Given the temperature forecast with only a few hours in the 30-32 degree range before temps rise back above freezing, I can't see much, if any, impacts occurring from this. Also, a few hi-resolution models suggest any snow and accumulation will remain to our east in Georgia, so we still note a touch of model discontinuity as well. There are no plans to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time, but will reassess through the day as we continue to review more hi-res data.

A west to northwest flow pattern will set up from Monday through Wednesday which will keep our forecast dry with below-average temperatures. Tuesday morning will be the coldest with lows ranging from the teens north to mid 20s south. Broad troughing over the Central CONUS and a slight enhancement to the sub-tropical jet over Mexico will support a slight warming trend and increasing rain chances across the Lower MS River Valley by Thursday and the end of the week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

Rain can be seen spreading across our northern terminals as a cold front moves through the the region. As a result, MVFR ceilings will influence BHM/EET/TCL through 10Z and AUO/MGM from 09-13Z. VFR conditions quickly return and persist through the remainder of this TAF window. West-northwesterly winds will begin to increase at BHM/EET/TCL towards the end of this TAF window.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

As rain ends this morning, drier air will filter back in from the northwest. MinRH values will range from 40-45% in the west to 50-55% in the east today. Expect northwesterly flow to persist through the weekend with several days of dry and cool daytime conditions. RH values will generally remain above critical thresholds except for Tuesday where a surge of dry air could result in RHs mixing down into the 20-25% range across much of Central Alabama.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 51 23 40 22 / 0 10 0 0 Anniston 52 24 40 22 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 51 26 40 25 / 0 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 53 24 42 25 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 53 24 42 24 / 0 10 0 0 Auburn 53 31 42 27 / 40 40 10 0 Montgomery 55 31 44 25 / 30 20 0 0 Troy 56 30 44 25 / 40 40 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.