textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the low to mid-90s for much of the next week, keeping Heat Index values above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026

Persistent upper-level ridging and elevated heat will remain the primary weather story throughout most of the forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures will generally reach the low to mid- 90s into the weekend, with heat index values consistently topping triple digits. Although conditions are expected to stay below official heat advisory thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors will continue to pose a risk of heat-related illness. By Friday, the ridge should compress slightly as a deep trough and associated cold front move across the Midwest. As the front loses upper-level support, it is forecast to stall near northern Tennessee, bringing more organized rain chances through the weekend. Perhaps the best chances we have seen over the last few weeks.

Forecast confidence diminishes next week as the ridge begins to rebuild over the region. Model guidance varies, with some solutions stronger and quicker, while others suggest a more gradual return and higher rain chances, though confidence remains low. Ultimately, the ridge is expected to re-establish itself in some capacity, pushing afternoon highs back into the low to mid-90s.

16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026

VFR conditions persist through this TAF cycle. Winds will remain out of the east from 5-8 knots through this evening, eventually becoming light and variable early Thursday morning.

AMD NOT SKED at TCL due to missing observations.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-20%) through midweek, they will increase slightly thereafter. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by next week if no meaningful rainfall is seen over the next five days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 69 95 70 / 10 10 10 10 Anniston 91 70 93 70 / 10 10 20 10 Birmingham 93 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 96 73 97 72 / 10 10 10 10 Calera 93 72 94 72 / 10 10 20 20 Auburn 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 30 20 Montgomery 93 73 94 73 / 10 10 30 20 Troy 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 50 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.