textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms affecting parts of Central Alabama Monday afternoon and/or evening, with threats including damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama late Wednesday, with threats including damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday, followed by a brief cooldown. There is a medium to high chance for low temperatures reaching the upper 30s Friday morning when conditions may become supportive of patchy frost.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026

Today: Following a widespread batch of showers and a couple thunderstorms, ongoing at 12 am Sunday, a relative minimum in activity should occur from later this morning to midday. Then, warming temperatures and the presence of a nearby front should promote scattered showers, and perhaps a few non-severe thunderstorms, from afternoon to early evening.

Monday: A low-amplitude, mid-level trough is forecast to scoot across the region from afternoon into evening, triggering scattered thunderstorms from near the Mississippi River eastward to our area. Weak to moderate instability is shown to develop by afternoon, with bulk shear supportive of organized thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show decent low- and mid-level lapse rates, a dry slot in the 850-700 mb layer, and weak low-level flow. This storm environment will offer a threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail. We'll have to see how much of the activity ultimately ends up affecting Central Alabama. Some models shows the focus occurring just to our west while others involve us in the action sometime during the afternoon and/or evening.

Tuesday: There's not a whole lot for this day as a shortwave ridge translates across the Gulf Coast. As such, despite variable clouds, temperatures will take an upward bump with highs reaching the low 80s for a large portion of Central Alabama. That's between 10-20 degrees above typical numbers.

Wednesday: Seasonably warm conditions continue on Wednesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is shown to merge with another trough just to its north. By late Wednesday, a large, sharp trough axis will be on our doorstep, driving a long line of showers and thunderstorms. Based on the trough evolution and parameter space, this activity should be in the form of a squall line, though some preceding thunderstorms could develop as well, with threats including damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. We'll continue to assess the setup.

A brief cooldown follows the midweek storm system. The coldest period looks to be Friday morning. Guidance has a medium to high chance for low temperatures slipping into the upper 30s. Forecast winds and relative humidity suggest patchy frost could be in the cards barring any changes.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026

SHRA along with low stratus and vsbys are expected off and on for much of the 24 hour TAF forecast. Rain chances do taper down some by Sun evening. TS may accompany the SHRA during the afternoon on Sun, but chances are only high enough to mention at MGM/AUO as of now.

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FIRE WEATHER

There are no low RH concerns over the next few days. It wont be until after Wednesday's strong front that lower dew points return and promote low afternoon MinRHs (Thursday and Friday). Winds today will be light and westerly, becoming light and southwesterly for Monday, then southerly between 5-10 mph on Tuesday. Scattered showers, perhaps a couple thunderstorms, are forecast for today. Scattered afternoon and/or evening thunderstorms are forecast for Monday, some of which may be severe with strong wind gusts and large hail. Tuesday is looking quieter and seasonably warm. A line of showers and thunderstorms is likely sometime late Wednesday, some of which may be severe.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 57 79 58 / 70 10 30 60 Anniston 72 58 78 60 / 70 20 30 60 Birmingham 73 60 78 63 / 70 20 50 60 Tuscaloosa 75 58 79 62 / 70 10 50 50 Calera 75 58 79 60 / 70 20 50 60 Auburn 72 60 78 61 / 70 40 30 40 Montgomery 75 61 80 63 / 70 30 50 40 Troy 75 62 81 63 / 70 30 40 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.