textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026

- Rain chances increasing Thursday into Friday morning. Low chances for severe weather and flooding concerns.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026

As temperatures begin to warm today, a longwave trough will begin dropping south over a large portion of the country. As this longwave digs south, so will a cold front. This cold front will likely become disconnected from the upper level forcing due to its elongated nature, slowing down or stalling near the Tennessee River valley. On Thursday however, a shortwave trough will develop within the larger longwave pattern, working through our region overnight Thursday, and into Friday morning. This shortwave, paired with the cold front, will be responsible for organized shower and thunderstorm activity along a line, expected during the overnight hours of Thursday.

From a severe weather standpoint, instability (or lack thereof) is still the limiting factor, with the region still not under any official outlook from the SPC. That's still subject to change, as this line of storms will be somewhat progressive, it just won't have the fuel it needs to sustain itself. With that being said, an isolated strong storm is not out of the question, with damaging winds being the main threat with any of this activity. It also appears as if this line is starting to slow down, in turn, increasing total rainfall amounts. It looks like most locations will see between 1-2 inches of rain, with areas of 2+ inches possible. Any increase in rainfall totals is much needed given the ongoing drought conditions across the region.

The weekend should remain dry under the post-frontal airmass, before the flow aloft begins to shift more towards a zonal pattern by Monday. This will allow for rain chances to return to the forecast, but it will also allow for temperatures to climb once more. Highs on Monday will be pushing the upper-70s south, with similar temperatures expected for most of next week. This will actually end up being one of our main weather stories here, as it looks like well above average temperatures will be possible for most of the next two or so weeks.

/44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026

BHM, EET, and TCL will continue to deal with temp MVFR CIGs over the next few hours before improving to VFR through the rest of the day. Gusty winds will be the main impact today with southerly to southwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 kts at times. A cold front gradually approaches the region late tonight leading to increased rain chances in the last few hours of this TAF period. We'll also see a decrease in CIGS to MVFR generally after 09z for our northern sites. This will likely continue into the next period for our southern sites, but that's just beyond this TAF issuance.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will rebound today, as winds begin to shift to the south/southwest. Rain chances will also begin to increase tonight north, before really expanding across the region into Friday morning. 1-2 inches of rainfall looks possible for most of the area, with some pockets of 2+ inches possible with the heavier convection. However, MinRH values will quickly drop behind the front, falling back into the mid-30% range by Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 63 51 67 48 / 10 40 90 70 Anniston 65 53 68 50 / 10 30 90 80 Birmingham 65 56 69 51 / 10 40 90 80 Tuscaloosa 70 56 73 50 / 0 30 80 80 Calera 69 54 71 51 / 0 30 80 80 Auburn 67 56 70 55 / 0 20 70 90 Montgomery 72 56 73 56 / 0 20 70 90 Troy 72 55 74 56 / 0 20 60 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.