textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026

- Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall on Friday evening along the Northern Gulf Coast.

- At this time, the highest confidence potential impact is heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding, followed by the potential for breezy conditions causing at least scattered downed trees and power outages. Confidence in the potential for tropical tornadoes is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1103 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026

Central Alabama will be treated to a few more pleasant days as surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft remain in control. Drier air in place will lead to cooler mornings with lows in the low to mid 50s for most. Unfortunately, high temps look to climb up into the mid to upper 80s. I suppose this is the trade off we have to make for now.

The main focus in this forecast period will be the progression of Tropical Depression 9. TD9 was named earlier this afternoon across the southwestern Gulf. It is currently forecast to quickly strengthen into a Cat 2 hurricane by Friday afternoon over the northern Gulf, eventually making landfall late Friday into Saturday morning. There remains some uncertainty regarding how quickly this system turns to the northeast and its forward speed across the Gulf. For now, users should continue to check back for the latest forecast from us as well as our friends over at the National Hurricane Center. As always keep in mind that impacts can and will likely be felt well outside of the forecast cone.

Now, let's talk about impacts. For Central Alabama, the highest confidence impact at this time is heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding. The next highest impact will be the potential for windy conditions and possible downed trees/power outages. The lowest confidence impact will be the potential for tropical tornadoes. More details on these threats will be included below.

Heavy Rainfall/Flash Flooding:

Drought remains ongoing over the area, but some areas did receive beneficial rainfall last weekend, especially our far southwest and far southeast counties. Streamflows remain below normal to well below normal for this time of year across West Alabama, while streamflows are closer to normal for this time of year (though normal is fairly low this time of year) elsewhere. Still, with copious tropical moisture transport we will be closely monitoring the potential for flash flooding. It's too early to focus on rainfall amounts quite yet, as they will be dependent on the speed, strength, and track of the system, but WPC does have a higher-end slight risk of excessive rainfall across all of Alabama on Saturday.

Gradient/Tropical Winds:

The magnitude of the wind threat will be highly dependent on the strength and track of the system. One thing to keep an eye on is the high pressure system across the northeast resulting in a cold air damming wedge. This will tighten up the pressure gradient and cause easterly winds to be quite breezy as the system approaches. The latest LREF hints at a 60-75% chance for gusts greater than 30 MPH on Saturday. At minimum, would expect at least a wind advisory with this system and associated potential for downed trees and power outages.

Severe Weather/Tropical Tornadoes:

Unsurprisingly, low-level shear and helicity values are high as the tropical system moves in. Mid-level winds/deep-layer shear values are higher than normal for a tropical system due to phasing with the upstream shortwave trough. The main limiting factor as it often is as we move into the cool season is instability. The cold air damming wedge and associated easterly winds resulting in evaporative cooling from isentropic lift driven rainfall will be the primary limiting factor for surface- based instability, unless pressure falls with the system are strong enough. There's always a fine line between "high shear low CAPE" and "high shear no CAPE", so while the "high shear no CAPE" may be the most likely scenario for most of the area, we will have to keep an eye on anywhere some weak surface-based instability can develop. Typically the northeast quadrant is the favored quadrant, though will still need to keep an eye on the southeast quadrant later on in the event as the system becomes extratropical.

TD9 quickly peels off to the northeast by early next week as upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region. This will promote a likely much needed drying out period early next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour forecast with minimal clouds, only a few cirrus clouds in the southeast. Low stratus should stay to the S of C AL terminals across the SRN part of the state. Winds will be generally light/variable to near calm overnight with E-ENE winds ~4-9kts during the day with mixing.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected through Friday. RH values will be generally in the 25 to 35 percent range each afternoon through Friday, with higher values in far eastern and southeastern portions of the area. Fire danger may be a little elevated Friday as winds begin to pick up ahead of an approaching tropical system. Deep tropical moisture will spread across the region over the weekend as Tropical Depression 9 moves inland.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 85 52 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 85 54 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 57 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 91 58 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 86 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 83 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.