textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

- Heat: A major heat risk is expected this afternoon across Central Alabama, with maximum heat indices from 105 to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the south and west portions of the area.

- Severe Weather: There is a 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the southeastern portions of Central Alabama this afternoon and evening, and again on Thursday afternoon in the extreme southeast. The main threat for both days will be damaging straight-line winds.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

Impressive dewpoints around the area today, with upper 70s and near 80 degrees quite common. Fortunately, a persistent cloud deck was helping to keep air temperatures in check and heat indices from getting out of control. Will maintain the current Heat Advisory through its 9 pm expiration.

With the upper level dome of high pressure centered to our west, we will remain in a northwest flow regime through the rest of the work week. Drier air (in a relative sense) is forecast to push into the area from the north and northeast, which will limit the chances of rain to the southern part of the CWA. There's still a Marginal Risk of severe storms in the far southeast through this evening. But based on radar trends so far this afternoon, the more intense convection should stay to our south and southeast.

Models are still advertising a shortwave trough to dig into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys late Friday and into the weekend. Lift associated with this trough will likely cause enhanced rain chances Friday night into Saturday. Latest computer model runs seem to be a little faster bringing this feature through than before. So, Sunday may not be as much of a washout as previously thought.

Beyond that, increasing model spread in how the upper level low is handled leads to lower forecast confidence early next week. Computer model blend schemes output POPs and temperatures near climo levels, and that quite honestly seems like the best course of action at this time.

/61/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the past couple of hours. Current activity is primarily impacting EET/MGM where a TEMPO group has been introduced for TSRA through 02Z. All other sites are carrying VCSH or VCTS to account for additional isolated activity early this evening. VFR conditions will prevail, outside of any convection, throughout this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds tonight will become more northerly through the day Thursday, increasing to 8-10 knots. Additional thunderstorm activity is likely tomorrow afternoon for our southern terminals. Therefore, I have introduced a PROB30 group for AUO/MGM.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in check for the week. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 70 90 66 90 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 73 92 70 93 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 74 93 72 93 / 30 10 0 20 Calera 73 94 70 94 / 20 0 0 10 Auburn 74 91 71 91 / 20 10 0 10 Montgomery 74 94 72 94 / 30 10 10 10 Troy 73 93 71 93 / 30 30 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore- Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike- Russell-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.