textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

- Major to Extreme Heat: A significant heat risk is expected to persist late this week through the weekend, with heat indices reaching 105-110 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect.

- Convection: Summertime precipitation remains limited, with low to moderate (20-50%) chances for showers and storms, primarily across southern areas.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026

As of writing, a few showers and storms are lingering across our southern counties as an outflow boundary slowly works north across the state. Based on persistence from the last few nights, additional development is likely over the next couple of hours with activity generally fizzling out by midnight. These storms would mainly produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Latest water vapor imagery reveals upper level ridging strengthening across the southeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is currently centered across the Northern Gulf. This feature will likely remain anchored across the Gulf through the work week with a slight jaunt to the north over the weekend. The upper level ridge will expand and strengthen through the week, allowing for temps to steadily warm up through the week with highs eventually settling into the 95-101F range for most of Central Alabama. Continued humid conditions combined with these temps will bump heat indices into the 105-110 degree range. This will lead to a major to extreme heat risk for Central Alabama late this week and over the weekend. A Heat Advisory is currently in effect through Saturday evening. These will likely be extended through the remainder of the weekend. A few locations may briefly reach 110-112 degrees Friday afternoon. Confidence in areal coverage is not high enough to warrant an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning at this time. We will need to monitor the trends through the day tomorrow.

This pattern will promote a typically summertime convection regime with low to moderate (20-50%) chances for showers and storms. Greatest chances for showers and storms will be across our southern areas as deeper moisture spreads inland. Those across central and north-central Alabama will likely remain dry as ridging helps keep a lid on things.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

Very high (90-100%) probabilities for VFR conditions and light winds continue through the period, outside of any thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening TSRA are expected to develop with daytime heating again today (20-40% chances), with PROB30 mentions for TSRA at all sites except TCL, which will be closer to the upper-level high pressure center.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 45 percent through Friday. As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through late week, with the activity becoming more confined to southern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 98 76 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 Anniston 95 75 96 74 / 40 10 10 0 Birmingham 97 77 98 76 / 30 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 99 77 101 76 / 20 10 10 0 Calera 98 76 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 Auburn 93 76 94 76 / 40 10 40 10 Montgomery 99 77 99 76 / 40 20 30 10 Troy 97 75 97 74 / 40 20 50 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.