textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

- Thunderstorms: A brief pattern shift will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the weekend. Some of this rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Evening radar trends show convection gradually diminishing across most of the area. However, a lingering mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) continues to spin across southwestern portions of Central Alabama. As this feature tracks eastward overnight, it will interact with richer moisture further southeast. The combination of forced ascent and isentropic lift will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into Saturday morning, primarily across eastern Alabama. Given low to moderate confidence in coverage, rain chances remain capped at 40 to 60 percent through mid-morning.

Scattered to broad coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to redevelop Saturday afternoon from west to east. Precipitable water (PWAT) values remain well above average, ensuring efficient rainfall production with stronger cores. While general widespread rainfall totals will range from 0.5 to 1.0 inch, localized heavier amounts are likely where persistent convective training occurs. Severe weather and widespread flash flooding are not anticipated, though localized urban/low-lying nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. Short-term model guidance exhibits variance regarding exact boundary placement and peak timing; thus, POPs range from 40% west to 70% east through 7 PM, with lingering shower activity persisting through 10 PM in the southeast.

Upper-level ridging will begin building back into the deep South on Sunday, leading to a marked decrease in precipitation coverage. Convective activity will transition back to isolated, diurnally driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms (<30% chance). Afternoon highs will rebound into the low-to-mid 90s by Monday. Broad ridging centered near the Tennessee Valley will maintain this persistent warm and mostly dry pattern through the remainder of the forecast period.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Low clouds have worked into the area this morning, affecting all sites with MVFR to IFR cigs. This should linger a few more hours, gradually improving through MVFR to VFR by midday. Showers and a few storms are ongoing across eastern portions of Central Alabama this morning, with this activity primarily concerning the Auburn TAF. Scattered showers and storms are expected again this afternoon across the area. Maintaining PROB30 for all sites through this evening.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. Rain chances will increase through the weekend. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up during next week if significant rainfall does not occur over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 88 69 93 68 / 60 20 0 0 Anniston 86 70 91 68 / 60 20 10 0 Birmingham 89 72 92 71 / 60 20 10 0 Tuscaloosa 92 72 95 71 / 50 10 0 0 Calera 88 71 92 70 / 60 20 10 0 Auburn 86 71 91 71 / 60 20 20 0 Montgomery 89 71 93 71 / 60 20 20 0 Troy 90 70 93 70 / 60 20 30 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.