textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026

- Rain chances increasing Thursday into Friday morning. Low chances for severe weather and flooding concerns.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1109 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning paints a fairly active picture across the country. An upper trough can be seen moving from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is beginning to expand across the southwestern US. To the north of the ridge, a shortwave can be seen cutting into the Northern Plains. Locally, moisture is beginning to increase as a moist southwesterly low level flow kicks in. PWATs are up to 0.6" on the 12Z KBMX sounding. They should top out around 1.25" tomorrow as moisture continues to pool ahead of an approaching cold front.

Rain chances will begin to increase tonight across our northern areas as the aforementioned front nears. Medium to high chances for showers spread across the region on Thursday as the front enters the CWA, eventually slowing down and stalling late in the day. We will see low chances for thunderstorms develop Thursday afternoon into Friday as a shortwave digs south while slightly deepening across the region. A few strong to potentially severe storms can't be ruled out during this time period. While CAPE values will increase into the 500-700 J/kg range, forcing will be limited. However, bulk shear around 50 knots would support a few isolated stronger storms. We will also need to keep an eye on any potential hydro concerns. The combination of a fairly deep warm cloud depth and an established low level moisture convergence axis could lead to isolated flooding concerns. Trends will be monitored regarding the hydro threat. Rainfall amounts look to generally range from 1-2" with low chances for amounts over 2". The latest 12Z HREF hints at a few pockets of 2+" where moisture convergence is maximized.

Rain chances gradually come to an end through the day Friday as the shortwave pulls off to the east and the surface boundary nudges south while washing out. We remain dry through the weekend as weak ridging attempts to become reestablished. Rain chances return early next week as our next system approaches the region.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026

All TAF sites are currently VFR. Cigs will deteriorate as we get into the late night hours after ~9z with SHRA developing/moving into the area ahead of a frontal system. Medium to high chance for MVFR cigs with these SHRAs. IFR will be possible as well by mid morning with front getting closer. Only confident enough for IFR at BHM, but will be monitoring closely the IFR progression on Thu. TS chances may occur by afternoon. Have a PROB30 mention by late afternoon after 21z at BHM.

08

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will rebound today, as winds begin to shift to the south/southwest. Rain chances will begin to increase tonight with medium to high chances persisting through Friday afternoon. 1-2 inches of rainfall looks likely for most of the area, with some pockets of 2+ inches with the heavier convection. A front will move through by the weekend, allowing min RH values to drop back into the 30-40% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 51 66 50 69 / 50 80 60 10 Anniston 53 68 51 68 / 40 80 70 20 Birmingham 55 67 53 69 / 40 70 70 10 Tuscaloosa 57 72 53 71 / 40 70 70 10 Calera 54 70 52 71 / 40 80 80 20 Auburn 56 69 57 69 / 30 70 90 50 Montgomery 57 73 57 71 / 20 60 90 50 Troy 55 74 57 72 / 20 60 90 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.