textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon to evening hours today and Monday. A break in rainy weather is forecast mid to late this week.

- There is a risk for a cluster of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts to impact parts of central Alabama Monday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

Cloud cover quickly cleared out this morning allowing for a rapid increase in temperatures with many locations reaching the mid to upper 80s by mid morning. It's definitely a muggy day out there. A growing cu field along and east of the I-65 corridor tells me that our initial expectations are likely on track as a backdoor front nudging in from the east will act as a focal point for convective development through the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm development is already underway, and hi-res models suggest this zone will begin to fill in over the next several hours as outflow propagation leads to additional thunderstorms. PoPs will be lower across our west and near the AL/MS state line.

A ridge amplifying over the Central Plains and a stubborn longwave trough axis over the East Coast will result in the development of deep northwesterly flow across Central Alabama tomorrow. Some models suggest an embedded shortwave will initiate an area of convection near the Ozarks tomorrow morning which will evolve into an MCS and dive south/southeastward through a highly unstable Gulf airmass characterized by dewpoints in the lower 70s. Although flow aloft is not particularly strong, forecast soundings indicate a dry layer aloft beginning near 650mb which is supporting DCAPE values of 1200-1300 J/kg tomorrow afternoon. This coupled with 25-30 kts of bulk shear and accelerating cold pool driven storm motions will support a damaging wind threat which has the potential to be more involved than is being currently advertised by the Marginal severe risk. However, model agreeability remains poor concerning the temporal and spatial scope of the potential MCS, so forecast confidence regarding the severe risk remains low.

Low to medium rain chances will remain in the forecast through Monday night as a cold front pushes through the area followed by a much drier air mass as ridging continues to intensify over the Midwest region on Tuesday. By the middle of the week, the mid- upper level ridge will become centered over the Gulf Coast region maintaining warm but drier conditions with lower afternoon humidity through the end of the week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

Convection has already developed near BHM and EET this afternoon. Utilized TEMPOs for TSRA at both sites through the afternoon hours and did the same for AUO which also has activity in the vicinity. PROB30s remain in place at MGM and TCL where activity remains less certain. TSRA will be the primary aviation impact through the afternoon then IFR ceilings redevelop at all sites except TCL after 06Z as rain diminishes. Gradual improvements back to MVFR/VFR are expected by the end of this TAF period.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the week ahead. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Monday. Rain- free weather is likely mid to late week with low chances returning over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 65 85 65 83 / 40 40 30 20 Anniston 66 85 66 83 / 40 30 30 20 Birmingham 68 87 68 84 / 40 50 50 20 Tuscaloosa 71 90 70 86 / 20 50 50 30 Calera 68 90 68 86 / 50 50 50 20 Auburn 69 88 69 85 / 40 20 30 50 Montgomery 70 89 69 86 / 50 30 40 40 Troy 69 90 69 87 / 60 30 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.