textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across northern and western parts of Alabama on Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools ahead of an incoming boundary.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

The leading edge of the trough and cold front will begin to work into the region by tomorrow afternoon, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow. The first round will be sometime during the morning, as a leading shortwave pushes east. The main thunderstorm activity will be in the late afternoon and evening hours, when the cold front proper begins to push into the state. PWAT values will remain very high tomorrow, and many of these storms will be prolific rainfall producers. In the event storms start to train, or storm motions slow down, localized flash flooding can be expected given the high rainfall rates. Thankfully, these areas should be limited in scope, and widespread flooding and flash flooding is not anticipated. The SPC has also maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for tomorrow, with damaging winds remaining the main threat with any strong to severe thunderstorm activity.

As the trough and low pressure continue to drop towards the southeast, it will start to become disconnected from the main trough axis to the north. This now cutoff low will linger across the Ohio Valley into the middle of next week, keeping elevated rain chances in the forecast through Wednesday. This will also aid in keeping afternoon high temperatures suppressed, with highs expected to stay in the upper-80s and low-90s. Unfortunately, this closed low will become absorbed back into the upper-level flow by Thursday, as a ridge builds off to the west. This should allow for afternoon highs to climb back into the low to mid-90s once more headed into next weekend.

/44/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026

Given the higher than expected coverage of rainfall across many of our TAF sites today, there's increasing confidence in lower CIG development over the next several hours. TCL has already dropped to IFR and I would expect the other sites to follow suit as we go through the night. CIGs should improve generally after 12z. Guidance has backed off on the coverage of rain showers through the morning hours, so I've removed the SHRA that was there previously, but will amend if necessary. Later in the afternoon, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through with an associated frontal boundary. This will lead to increased winds along and ahead of the front and at least Prob30 for the thunderstorms during the afternoon as the line moves through. Guidance has this frontal boundary and any associated showers/storms generally tapering off between 03-06z so will hit that trend towards the end of the TAF period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help keep fire weather concerns in check into next week, with MinRH values expected to remain above 45 percent through Wednesday. Heavy rain is also expected at times over the weekend. Some drier air begins to work in from the east by next Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 70 88 68 / 90 80 30 10 Anniston 90 72 87 69 / 80 80 10 10 Birmingham 92 72 87 70 / 50 70 20 10 Tuscaloosa 92 71 88 70 / 40 50 20 0 Calera 93 71 89 69 / 40 70 10 0 Auburn 86 74 87 72 / 70 60 40 10 Montgomery 93 74 91 71 / 50 60 20 0 Troy 90 73 90 70 / 50 50 50 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.