textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025

- Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across central Alabama on Thursday.

- Temperatures will commence a warming trend this weekend and are likely to remain above-normal through Christmas.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1138 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals a shortwave lifting along the western Gulf coast as another trough slides east across the Pacific Northwest. Showers have been going through much of the morning across northwestern Alabama as a ribbon of H5 vorticity ejects ahead of the aforementioned shortwave. Rain chances ramp up Thursday as the northern trough slides across the Plains while sending a cold front our way. Ahead of this feature, isentropic lift will likely lead to a few showers overnight into Thursday morning. Ample moisture in place across the region will help promote widespread showers through much of the day. Our thinking remains in the same when it comes to our thunder potential. Chances remain low at this time due to limited instability. Best chances would come during the afternoon hours when latest guidance hints at a band of 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE developing. Rain chances quickly come to an end in the wake of a front overnight Thursday into Friday. High pressure slides into the area, keeping us dry for Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, a trough over the Great Lakes region will kick a cold front our way. In the meantime, the previously mentioned cold front will attempt to retreat north, pulling some moisture back across the state. This will warrant some low (20-30%) chance for showers Sunday and Monday.

Broad ridging then develops over much of CONUS, leading to a warming trend as we head towards Christmas.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025

A small swath of low level stratus can be seen near MGM at this time. These clouds should clear out shortly with VFR prevailing at all sites through Thursday morning. Isolated showers are likely to develop shortly before sunrise. MVFR ceilings develop areawide through the morning hours as shower activity becomes more widespread.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical thresholds over the coming days. The lowest afternoon RHs should occur on Saturday across the east half of central Alabama, generally in the lower 30s.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with periodic opportunities for precipitation next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 40 62 35 / 0 10 80 90 Anniston 61 44 63 37 / 0 10 80 90 Birmingham 61 45 62 37 / 0 20 80 80 Tuscaloosa 61 47 64 37 / 0 30 80 70 Calera 62 45 63 37 / 0 30 80 80 Auburn 61 48 61 43 / 0 10 80 90 Montgomery 63 46 64 43 / 0 30 90 80 Troy 63 46 64 44 / 0 20 90 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.