textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026

- Thunderstorms: Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances expected over the weekend.

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk through the weekend, transitioning to a major heat risk early next week with heat indices potentially reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026

Broad ridging remains established across the Southeast as the main upper-level trough holds to the northeast. A weak tropical disturbance in the Eastern Gulf maintains a low (<20%) probability of development. While model consensus suggests the East Coast trough may miss this disturbance, potentially trapping it under the ridge, uncertainty regarding its exact trajectory persists. Until the system's path clarifies, we expect increased Gulf moisture and higher shower and thunderstorm coverage through the weekend.

By early next week, the upper-level ridge is expected to shift into Central AL, favoring a warming trend and reduced precipitation coverage. Guidance suggests highs in the low to mid- 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday, with heat indices potentially reaching 100-105. We will continue to monitor these trends for potential Heat Advisory criteria mid-week.

16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026

A weakness in a deep-layer ridge will be associated with a zone of enhanced moisture across the central and eastern portions of Alabama on Friday, where scattered afternoon convection is expected. Prevailing VFR conditions could be briefly interrupted by this activity, warranting a PROB30 for all sites, excluding TCL, effective after 19Z Friday for thunderstorms. Outside of convective activity, occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots from the northwest are possible through the afternoon.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central AL. Increasing tropical moisture associated with a weak disturbance in the Eastern Gulf is expected across the area over the weekend, which will increase rain chances each afternoon. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 72 92 73 / 50 20 40 20 Anniston 90 72 91 73 / 50 20 40 20 Birmingham 91 74 93 75 / 50 20 30 10 Tuscaloosa 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 Calera 94 73 96 74 / 40 20 30 10 Auburn 90 74 91 74 / 30 20 50 30 Montgomery 93 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 Troy 91 73 92 74 / 20 20 40 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.