textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

- Periods of showers are expected throughout today across central Alabama with a few thunderstorms afternoon into evening.

- A gradual warming trend will commence this weekend with above- normal temperatures likely heading into Christmas.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

Today:

A shortwave moving across the northern Gulf will result in isentropic lift atop the cool air mass at the surface. This will cause scattered showers across central Alabama this morning, with a potentially more concentrated batch of activity just to our southeast, closer to the mid-level speed max.

Ascent from an approaching deep trough over the central U.S., and its front, will result in additional spells of showers this afternoon and evening. Guidance continues to show a small swath of weak MUCAPE just ahead of the front, which could support a few thunderstorms as it moves across afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings show a veered/sheared wind profile, though characteristics of the instability profile are meager, especially at the low levels, along with somewhat misaligned dynamics; thus, severe weather is not anticipated with this system.

Friday & the weekend:

Fair weather is forecast on Friday and Saturday, initially cooler on Friday but trending milder on Saturday.

A mid-level impulse scooting across the Tennessee Valley region should cause a period of increased cloudiness with a few light showers overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Next week:

Broad ridging from Mexico to the Gulf is forecast to amplify with its axis shifting eastward. This pattern of positive height anomalies will cause above-normal temperatures for much of the CONUS. For central Alabama, probabilities are high for temperatures in the mid 60s and medium for temperatures in the low 70s heading into Christmas, perhaps past it by a few days, too.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

Showers have overspread central Alabama as of 10:45z and will come in waves through today, ending late this evening. Heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may occur with a broken line of activity late afternoon into evening.

VFR overcast early this morning is forecast to become MVFR around 15z and IFR around 18z for all central Alabama terminals. A few hours of LIFR may occur sometime from mid afternoon to mid evening for some locations. Improvement to MVFR and then VFR is expected overnight/past 06z Friday as drier air moves in behind the departing system.

Southeast surface winds this morning will become south this afternoon and then northwest tonight with gusts near 20 knots.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical thresholds over the coming days. Of the next few days, the lowest afternoon RHs should occur on Saturday and Monday across the east half of central Alabama, generally in the lower 30s.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today/Thursday with periodic slight-chance opportunities for parts of the region next week, otherwise fair.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 61 34 50 27 / 90 80 0 0 Anniston 62 37 52 29 / 90 80 0 0 Birmingham 62 37 50 33 / 90 80 0 0 Tuscaloosa 64 37 53 31 / 90 80 0 0 Calera 64 36 54 31 / 90 80 0 0 Auburn 61 43 55 34 / 90 70 0 0 Montgomery 64 42 56 32 / 90 60 0 0 Troy 64 44 56 33 / 100 60 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.