textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026

- An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the entire area through this morning. Wind chills are currently forecast to range near zero across eastern counties to the single digits above zero elsewhere by daybreak.

- Following another hard freeze on Monday morning, a welcomed warm-up will occur through Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast areawide.

- Widespread showers return Tuesday night through Wednesday followed by a quick round of colder and drier air behind the cold front for Thursday. No hazardous weather or abnormally cold temperatures are being advertised in the long-range forecast at this time, with guidance advertising mostly dry forecast trends by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Through next Saturday) Issued at at 102 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026

We're about to have the worst behind us in terms of the prolonged below average temperatures that we've experienced over the last week and a half, with moderating and warmer temperatures expected by Tuesday. First, we still have some lingering flurries across far northeastern Alabama due to some leftover wrap-around moisture and upper level dynamic lift on the far western edge of the closed low. As the system continues to depart off to the east, these flurries will finally taper off, but in the meantime have kept flurries mentioned in the forecast for the far eastern and northeastern counties through daybreak.

Meanwhile, in terms of temperatures and wind chills, we're still going to be talking about dangerously cold conditions through this morning. Hourly temperatures on the whole were running a couple of degrees too cool based on the current observed rate of advection cooling. However, Haleyville was already 15 as of just after midnight with lower 20s to near 20 degrees elsewhere. Low temperatures at daybreak were adjusted upward a degree or so areawide based on current obs trends, but we're still anticipating 13 to 15 degrees across far northwest counties and mid to upper teens for all other locations before all is said and done. Winds continue to decrease overall, but are expected to still prevail between 10 and 15mph with gusts between 20 and 25mph overnight. Highest wind gusts will be confined to the far eastern and southeastern counties, closest to the departing storm system. The Extreme Cold Warning will remain in effect through noon today with wind chills ranging from near zero in the far east (mainly higher elevations) to the single digits above zero for everyone else.

Clouds will linger across the northern half of the state during the morning, expected to finally mix out by midday. Welcomed sunshine should return for most by this afternoon with winds continuing to diminish. Latest guidance has warmed up just a bit in terms of expected high temperatures, now ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south as cold air advection comes to an end. Surface high pressure builds overhead tonight, with winds becoming calm and radiational cooling sending temperatures falling once again. An upper level shortwave quickly moving southward will increase mid-level cloud cover late this afternoon and into the evening for the northern half of the CWA, which could cause lows to be a bit warmer than currently advertised. For locations that stay clear overnight, lower 20s and perhaps some isolated upper teens are anticipated by daybreak Monday. No cold weather products will be issued tonight due to calm winds and actual temperatures not expected to reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

The "great thaw" will then commence Monday and last through Tuesday as upper heights rise and southwesterly flow at the surface returns over the Deep South. Highs in the 60s will be common by Tuesday with clouds quickly increasing in response to the next shortwave ejecting east out of the southern Plains and cold front approaching from the northwest. Synoptic lift and increasing moisture from the southwest will quickly develop widespread showers starting as early as late Tuesday afternoon in the northwest and moving from northwest to southeast through early Wednesday morning. A kicker shortwave diving southward from the Great Plains will help to push the cold front through the CWA by Wednesday afternoon with a quick round of colder and drier air advecting southward. This wave of cold air won't be nearly as cold as the one we're dealing with now, as we'll be back into the 50s and lower 60s by Friday following a chilly day on Thursday.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026

All sites are VFR and should stay that way through the 24 hour forecast. NW winds will taper down today but there may still be a few gusts during the day for MGM/AUO. However, winds should become much lighter and more variable overnight tonight as surface pressure gradients relax over the Deep South with ridging.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Very cold and very dry air will prevail across Central Alabama through this afternoon with wind gusts slowly decreasing through the day. MinRH values are forecast to drop back down into the mid and upper 20s across southern counties to the lower 30s north this afternoon. Winds will diminish by Monday with RHs on the rebound ahead of the next cold front, with a likely chance for wetting rainfall arriving by Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 39 17 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 39 20 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 39 23 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 41 22 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 41 22 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 40 23 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 43 22 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 42 21 55 32 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.