textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026

- Significant Heat Risk: A warming trend will push heat indices to 105-108 each afternoon this week, with Heat Advisories likely needed from Wednesday and onward.

- Tropical Weather: Tropical Storm Edouard will pass well to the west, resulting in no direct impacts for Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026

Similar to the last few nights, water vapor imagery reveals a stout upper level ridge expanding across the southeastern US. Newly formed Tropical Storm Edouard continues to move slowly to the north-northwest over the Northern Gulf. This system is expected to make landfall along the TX/LA border late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Increasing subsidence will help maintain dry conditions across the area through the majority of the work week. We look to continue with low chances for diurnally driven convection across our southern areas where moisture remains elevated closer to the coast. At this time, we are not expecting much in the way of severe weather as wind shear will be minimal. However, instability will be sufficient enough to support a stronger storm or two as we reach peak heating. Low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and storms return to the forecast for the southern half of the state late Thursday through the weekend as a shortwave rotates west along the southern periphery of the ridge.

A warming trend kicks in over the coming days as temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 90s by mid week. Humid conditions will push heat indices into the 105-108 range each afternoon. Daily Heat Advisories will likely be needed by Wednesday. Overall, this will promote a significant heat risk for the region. The latest probabilistic heat risk data suggests a 60- 80% chance of a major or higher heat risk as we head into Labor Day Weekend. We will increase heat safety messaging throughout the week; emphasize the importance of hydration and limiting outdoor exposure.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Calm or variable winds overnight will increase to around 6-8 knots out of the east-southeast Tuesday afternoon.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 40% through the work week. Low (10 to 20%) chances for showers and storms will continue daily. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next week as winds remain light. However soil conditions are drying out and drought may increase through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 96 73 97 74 / 0 0 10 0 Anniston 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 95 75 96 75 / 10 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 98 75 99 75 / 10 0 10 0 Calera 95 74 96 73 / 0 0 10 0 Auburn 92 74 93 75 / 0 0 10 0 Montgomery 97 75 97 74 / 10 0 10 0 Troy 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.