textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026

- Thunderstorms: Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances expected over the weekend.

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk through the weekend, transitioning to a major heat risk early next week with heat indices potentially reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Not a lot of changes in the forecast today as the ridging is expected to persist through the next several days. Low to medium rain chances are expected generally for the eastern half of Central AL today and tomorrow as we're on the eastern edge of the main ridge with the trough to our northeast. We also have the tropical disturbance in the Northeastern Gulf that will slowly meander and get picked up by the main trough over the weekend. This will at least pull in some tropical moisture into Central AL for higher rain chances on Sunday. As we go into next week, the disturbance has shifted well to the east and the main ridging remains in place slightly to our west. This will lead to a gradual warming trend Monday through Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there's still a decent amount of uncertainty with these high temperatures as diurnal thunderstorm activity and cloud cover might limit the daytime heating. We'll need to monitor Tuesday and Wednesday especially as heat indices could approach or exceed 105 depending on the temperature trends in the forecast.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish in coverage generally after 01-03Z, leading to mostly clear conditions through the remainder of the evening and night. VCTS is maintained at BHM through 01Z to account for ongoing activity. Additionally, an outflow boundary will move through EET and TCL between 00Z and 01Z; a TEMPO group has been added for potential thunderstorms, though confidence in activity reaching TCL remains lower as it continues to weaken. Looking ahead, a similar trend of diurnal wind increases is expected, with speeds reaching 8-10 kts after 16Z tomorrow. Confidence in the placement of showers and storms on Saturday is highest at MGM and AUO, where a PROB30 group has been included, though an isolated storm cannot be ruled out elsewhere.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central AL. Increasing tropical moisture associated with a weak disturbance in the Eastern Gulf is expected across the area over the weekend, which will increase rain chances each afternoon, especially for the eastern half of Central AL. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 92 73 92 / 20 30 20 60 Anniston 72 91 73 91 / 20 30 20 60 Birmingham 74 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 60 Tuscaloosa 74 94 75 94 / 20 10 10 40 Calera 73 96 74 96 / 20 20 20 50 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 20 30 30 60 Montgomery 74 94 75 94 / 20 20 30 50 Troy 73 93 73 93 / 20 40 50 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.