textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026

- Thunderstorms: Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances expected through Monday. A few storms may be severe across the north Sunday afternoon, with damaging winds the main concern.

- Tropical: Tropical Depression Two will continue to strengthen in the northern Gulf and move slowly to the west and northwest through the beginning of the work week. At this time, no significant impacts are expected.

- Heat: Minor/moderate heat risk Sunday, transitioning to moderate/major heat risk for Monday through Wednesday with heat indices reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026 Synoptically, there is a high pressure west of the MS River Valley that will slowly build eastward through the next couple of days. At the same time, there is a trough and associated building low pressure over the Great Lakes area, and that feature is expected to build to the south and east through mid week. A front associated with that low pressure will move south and east across the TN River Valley and to the east coast by the Thursday time frame.

Today, the area is on the eastern fringe of that high with flow from the north and northwest. Instability, lapse rates, and LI values will be high, with a wind profile weak in both shear and speed throughout the atmospheric column. Would expect storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds the main threat from any storms that build and then collapse. With weak flow, there is a high threat for training storms that could produce 2-3" per hour. Localized flooding is possible with these training and slow moving storms.

In the northern Gulf, Tropical Depression Two is continuing to move slowly to the north and west. This Depression is forecasted to become a Tropical Storm in roughly the Monday morning timeframe. The storm will then move to the northwest slowly through Wednesday, and move roughly to an area south of MS/LA. From here, there is uncertainty of where the low will move, with the current projection of movement to the west across the northwestern Gulf. A lot of that movement depends on how strong the high pressure currently over the Great Plains becomes and how far to the east the high pressure moves into the southeast. If that high weakens and stays farther to the west, the low may then take a more northwesterly track. If the high remains strong and moves across the MS/AL region, the low should move more westward towards TX.

Having said all that, the impacts to the forecast area are expected to be minimal at this time. Winds will transition to a south to southeasterly direction around the low by Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Low and mid level winds increase around the Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon time, with low level shear increasing to around 20-30 kts. Not confident this is enough for a Wind Advisory with models diverging on how strong those winds will be, but if the low strengthens and continues it's west and northwest track, there could definitely be gusting winds throughout the night Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered storms over the area Monday afternoon should increase in coverage through the night Tuesday and into Wednesday in the far southeast, closer to the Tropical Depression. Otherwise, instability will remain high with strong to very isolated severe thunderstorms possible each day Monday through Wednesday.

By Thursday, the low pressure moves to the east and the boundary associated with that low moves through the southeast. Flow should then turn to out of the north and northeast, bringing slightly cooler and drier air. Temperatures that are expected to climb into the upper 90s through the first half of the work week, and heat indices into the triple digits should lower for the end of the work week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026

Storms will continue through the rest of the day, with IFR conditions in any storm that moves over a TAF site. Included a PROB30 for now to account for off and on nature of activity. Activity should weaken after sunset, with light rain possible through much of the night. Left mention of this rain out due to low confidence in where the rain will occur. Activity is again possible in the afternoon tomorrow, likely at the end or after the end of the current TAF period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central AL. Increasing tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression Two is expected across the area over the beginning of the work week, which will increase rain chances each afternoon, especially for the eastern half of Central AL. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 10 Anniston 73 92 74 93 / 30 30 10 10 Birmingham 75 94 76 95 / 30 30 10 10 Tuscaloosa 75 95 76 96 / 30 20 10 10 Calera 74 96 75 97 / 20 20 10 10 Auburn 73 91 75 91 / 10 10 10 30 Montgomery 73 95 75 94 / 20 10 10 20 Troy 72 93 73 91 / 20 20 10 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.