textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026

- Heavy Rain: Given a stalled cold front and plenty of moisture streaming in from the Gulf, heavy rain will be possible into this weekend. A Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday morning.

- Heat: Hot conditions return by Monday and continue into the middle of next week with medium to high chances of temperatures going into the upper 90s to near the century mark for portions of Central Alabama along with heat indices near or over 105.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026

Guidance and NHC continue to keep Tropical Storm Bertha moving westward away from Alabama along the Louisiana Gulf Coast today and onshore again along the Southeast Texas Coast tonight. We are now turning our attention to a surface front that has made its way into the area, currently stretching from Virginia, to Far Northwest Alabama and into Northern Louisiana. Northwest upper flow should help to nudge this front a little further into the state today before stalling tonight across Central Alabama. It is expected to remain across Central Alabama through late Friday into early Saturday before pushing back northward as a warm front. This will keep the area in a wet pattern as it meanders around the area as a focus for convection into this weekend. With that said, will continue the Flood Watch for the far northeast counties from Thursday into early Saturday as these areas continue to indicate the best risk for heavy rain.

The heat advisory that was in effect has expired. Increased rain chances and a surface front moving into the area will lower temperatures just enough for Thursday into this weekend to keep us just below heat advisory criteria. However, the reprieve will be short lived. Over the weekend, the Western US upper ridge will expand and nudge eastward. This will result in hotter temperatures returning back to Central Alabama and only minimal if any diurnal convection for the first half of next week. This also means a medium to high chance that heat advisories will be needed again by next Monday for portions of Central Alabama, and likely continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026

Scattered showers across the north and southwest will continue moving north-northwest through sunset. With stable conditions aloft, the thunder mention has been removed, as activity will be isolated (<20%). We have included TEMPO groups for MVFR rain showers at BHM, EET, and TCL from 19-22Z, and added VCSH at MGM and AUO after 21Z. Activity decreases after 03Z. Low-level clouds near the front will bring a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings to BHM, EET, and TCL. Shower and storm potential increases after 15Z Friday, with better coverage expected after 18Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances, with MinRH values expected to remain above 50 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 88 72 89 / 60 80 20 70 Anniston 74 87 73 88 / 50 70 20 70 Birmingham 76 89 74 90 / 60 70 20 60 Tuscaloosa 76 91 75 92 / 50 60 10 30 Calera 75 93 74 94 / 50 60 20 50 Auburn 75 90 75 89 / 30 20 10 60 Montgomery 75 94 75 94 / 30 20 10 40 Troy 73 94 74 93 / 20 20 10 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah.