textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026

- Medium chances for patchy fog development tonight, especially near bodies of water.

- High temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures.

- Cooler temperatures are expected by next Saturday, but how much cooler remains uncertain. Little to no precipitation is expected with this cold front.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Isaias will continue to move eastward and off the Atlantic Coast through Monday morning. Broad ridging is expected to build into the Southeastern CONUS Monday and remain over the region through at least Thursday morning. This will lead to another warming trend for Central AL with highs reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s each day Monday through Friday. A few locations may approach or exceed record highs for this time of year. I don't expect any heat-related advisory products as the drier air mass will keep heat indices fairly close to the air temperature. Overnight lows each morning will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s, making for mild Fall mornings before warming into the upper 80s by the afternoons.

The next system to watch will be a trough that will slide through the Midwest towards the end of the week and will push a cold front southward into Central AL for the weekend. Without deep moisture return ahead of this cold front, the forecast will keep this frontal passage mostly rain-free, though a few showers may end up occurring. Overall, we're not expecting a huge impact from this frontal passage next weekend aside from the cooler temperatures behind the front.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026

High pressure will build into the area, with mostly clear conditions through the TAF period. Calm winds overnight and high low level moisture will allow for patchy dense fog to develop, with at least MVFR visibilities expected at each TAF site through the morning. There is a low to medium chance a few sites, like KTCL will drop to IFR visibilities, but will update if trends move that direction. VFR conditions will be present from mid morning through the rest of the TAF period Monday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED at KAUO and KEET due to missing observational data.

24

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions are expected to be in place for much of the upcoming week. MinRHs will drop into the mid 30-40% range each afternoon as high temperatures reach the upper 80s with the dry air mass. However, with the center of the high overhead, we're expecting mostly light to calm winds for the next several days.

CLIMATE

Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Record High Temperatures:

October 12: KBHM: 91/1963 KEET: 86/2014 KANB: 88/1963 KTCL: 92/1963 KMGM: 91/2017

October 13: KBHM: 89/1953 KEET: 89/2017 KANB: 90/1954 KTCL: 90/1963

October 14: KBHM: 89/1984 KEET: 89/2016 KANB: 88/1975 KTCL: 90/1962 KMGM: 91/1883

October 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881

October 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 86 55 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 85 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 87 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 91 59 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 87 60 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 86 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 88 58 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 86 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.