textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026

- A Level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe weather is in place Sunday afternoon across southern portions of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary threats.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern counties of Central Alabama.

- Very cold air arrives late Sunday into early next week. A Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1233 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026

Showers have been ongoing through much of the morning across the northern half of Alabama. Freezing rain and icy conditions have been reported across the HUN CWA as temps are well below freezing. As of writing, temps across our NW counties are generally between 25-30 degrees per the latest RAP analysis. Would expect any precip falling to be freezing rain over the next several hours. At this point, we don't anticipate any changes to our current Winter Weather Advisory configuration. We may be able to end the Advisory early as conditions improve. We will be keeping a close eye on that. All precip will transition back to rain through the afternoon as temps begin to warm. This will open the door to a severe weather threat on Sunday. We will touch on that here in a bit. There is also a low chance for another quick shot of freezing rain and/or light snow Sunday night into Monday morning as moisture wraps around this system and interacts with significantly colder air that looks to surge into the region. Any accumulations are expected to be light but would pose a black ice risk as we head into the Monday morning commute.

To stick with the ongoing winter threat, let's discuss our temperatures early next week. Significantly colder air will filter across the southeast in the wake of a cold front tomorrow. Low temps Sunday night into Monday will range from 10-25 degrees and 5-15 degrees Monday night into Tuesday morning. Wind chill values will range from 0-15 degrees at times. We went ahead and transitioned the Extreme Cold Watch to a Cold Weather Advisory with this update. There will likely be a brief window for our NW counties to touch Extreme Cold Warning criteria Monday morning. This is dependent on how strong our winds are. An upgrade to a warning is not out of the question. Another Advisory and/or Warning will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday morning.

We now transition to Sunday's severe weather threat. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of the southern half of the state. As the surface low lifts across the state tomorrow, a healthy plume of warmer air will spread north ahead of an approaching cold front. A breezy southerly wind will develop across our southeastern counties ahead of this system. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Pike and Barbour counties as gust up to 30 MPH are likely between 11 AM - 3 PM. The parameter space will be more of low cape, high shear scenario as CAPE values top out in the 500-700 J/kg range with bulk shear exceeding 60 knots. Latest guidance continues to hint at a plume 0-3 km SRH over 400 m2/s2. This would support a threat for damaging winds as well as isolated tornadoes as a QLCS moves through during the late morning through mid afternoon hours.

Looking ahead to the rest of next week, cooler and dry conditions are expected through the work week. High temps top out in the 30s and 40s with lows dropping into the teens to mid 20s each morning.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026

A mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings are in place late this morning. Latest satellite imagery backs this up as we can see a few pockets of sun mixed in with the low level stratus deck. Expect MVFR to prevail everywhere over the next several hours as rain continues to spread across the region. IFR/LIFR ceilings are likely late to night into Sunday morning and will then linger through the remainder of this TAF cycle. Southerly winds will begin to increase late tonight with gusts around 20 knots likely. A cold front will approach us towards the end of this TAF window with showers and thunderstorms likely. Best chances for TSRA come after this TAF period.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Widespread rain is still expected through the weekend, with most locations seeing between 2-4 inches by Monday. Dry air will quickly work into the region by the new workweek, with MinRH values dropping back between 30-40%. Given the wet fuels, fire weather concerns will remain little to none through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 38 59 16 32 / 100 100 20 0 Anniston 39 60 19 34 / 100 100 20 0 Birmingham 43 60 19 32 / 100 100 10 0 Tuscaloosa 40 58 19 34 / 100 100 10 0 Calera 45 62 19 35 / 100 100 20 0 Auburn 44 64 24 38 / 70 90 50 0 Montgomery 51 70 23 39 / 80 100 30 0 Troy 53 72 23 40 / 60 100 50 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker- Winston.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 10 AM CST Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount- Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee- Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike- Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for the following counties: Barbour-Pike.