textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026

- A medium chance for below average temperatures will be present with dry conditions this afternoon through Tuesday.

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for late Wednesday into Thursday. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the main threats.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 203 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026

This afternoon high pressure is building across much of the central two thirds of the US as a cold front continues to push to the SE from C AL. Breezy NRLY winds are ushering dry air into the state behind the system. Our current satellite image is showing the denser cloud cover well to the SE with some fair weather cumulus closer to home. In the upper levels, a strong low is centered over Quebec with longwave troughing across ERN CONUS, flat ridging across the Rockies, and another low digging across the Pacific US Coast. As surface ridging builds tonight across the Deep South and remains in control through the short term, pleasant rain-free conditions with below normal temperatures are to be expected.

Although rain chances do not return until midweek, temperatures will slowly warm for the first part of next week as our airmass moderates and the surface ridge weakens. Another storm system and associated cold front will approach the Deep South by Wed. Elevated rain chances will accompany this system with a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front Wed night into Thu. There will be a slight chance (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours as this system moves through. The main threats will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Guidance is currently suggesting that the greatest instability will be across LA/MS Wed. Elevated instability will be present across C AL. The strongest in our area looks to be in the WRN counties. However, with expected dew points in the 60s across C AL (even maybe a few in the lower 70s) and frontal forcing, guidance will continue to be assessed to refine the forecast as we get closer to Wed.

The latest guidance pushes the front through on Thu with cooler readings and lower rain chances for Thu night into Fri.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026

Given a building ridge at the surface, VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF period.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Drier conditions return for this afternoon through Tuesday with RH minimums in the 30 percent range Sunday and Monday afternoons for all, for many this afternoon and Tuesday. Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday into Thursday, a few storms may be strong to severe Wednesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 40 71 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 42 71 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 45 71 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 45 74 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 45 73 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 47 73 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 44 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 44 72 45 78 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.