textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026

- Daily high temperatures in the 90s combined with high humidity will lead to heat indices of 100-105 degrees, resulting in a moderate to major heat risk

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, increasing in coverage by Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals some drier air working into the region as high pressure remains in control. However, GOES TPW imagery is picking up on a corridor of slightly deeper moisture across the southern half of the state. Latest guidance hints at a weak low level convergence band developing within this region which will promote isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as we reach peak heating. Conditions remain largely unchanged through the work week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase over the weekend as an upper trough lifts across the Plains while sending several shortwaves just north of the region. In addition, a cold front will sag south, eventually stalling across or just north of the CWA. The combination of increased surface convergence along the boundary and lift from the passing shortwaves will warrant a moderate (40-70%) chance of precipitation through the weekend. Our active pattern continues early next week as another upper trough drops into the Northern Plains while sending additional bouts of H5 energy through the region.

The main story over the next several days will be our increasing heat concerns. High temps will climb into the low to mid 90s daily. A persistent southerly flow will keep ample moisture in place, allowing for heat indices to jump into the 100-105 range. Heat Advisories may be needed by the weekend. Regardless, these conditions will promote a moderate to major heat risk each afternoon across Central Alabama. This will mainly affect those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through this TAF window. There is a low chance for isolated convection once again this afternoon. Confidence is low in any particular shower or storm impacting a terminal so have left out of the TAF forecast with this update.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Low chances for showers and storms continue daily through the work week. Chances increase over the weekend as a front stalls nearby. Ample moisture in place will keep minRH values above 40% through the next week. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 91 73 91 / 0 10 0 30 Anniston 73 90 73 91 / 0 20 0 20 Birmingham 74 92 74 93 / 0 10 0 20 Tuscaloosa 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 20 Calera 73 94 74 95 / 0 10 0 20 Auburn 73 93 74 94 / 0 20 10 10 Montgomery 74 93 74 93 / 0 20 10 10 Troy 72 93 73 94 / 0 10 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.