textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1124 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026

- Dry weather with warm afternoons and cool mornings continues for much of the work week, though a wetter weather pattern featuring medium to high rain chances is forecast for the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1124 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026

If you take a quick glance at the KBMX radar this morning, you'd think some light showers are moving into the area from the northwest. However, the 12Z KBMX sounding reveals an extremely dry layer just off the surface to about 700mb. It is pretty unlikely that any precipitation is making it through this much drier air. As a result, we will just see some mid to upper level clouds streaming by through the day. Otherwise, with little pattern change, we would expect to see another round of patchy river fog again early Monday morning.

The upper level pattern begins to change early next week as a weak shortwave cuts into the Tennessee Valley on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a stronger upper trough late in the work week. However, limited moisture in place keeps dry conditions in place through mid week. Low to medium chances for showers and storms return to the forecast late in the week as the aforementioned upper trough and accompanying cold front near the region. There is a bit more uncertainty late in the week as there are both spatial and temporal differences between the latest model suite. We will keep a close eye on the model trends over the coming days.

We kick off a warming trend as we head into the work week with highs rebounding into the low 90s by Wednesday. Drier air in place will help us maintain our cooler mornings with lows dropping down into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees through mid week. As we head into the late stages of the work week, a moist southerly flow will bump out overnight lows up into the upper 60s to low 70s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Light northerly winds, from 5-8 knots, will continue through this TAF cycle. Based on observations from this morning and little overall pattern change, we went ahead and included a brief TEMPO group for MVFR vis at MGM as patchy river fog is expected again overnight. Considered including it at TCL too but confidence was much lower.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will persist through the first half of the upcoming week with light winds keeping overall concerns low. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will drop into the middle 20 to lower 30 percent range this afternoon through Tuesday as the drying trend continues. Humidity values slowly start to increase starting Wednesday. Rain chances return for the latter part of the upcoming week into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 82 53 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 85 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 88 59 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 86 57 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 59 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 87 58 83 57 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.