textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026

- Above average temperatures expected through much of the upcoming forecast.

- Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 950 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026

Warm weather is going to continue to be the story over the next few days as high pressure persists to our east, bringing in the warmer air mass from the Gulf. Temperatures will run well above normal again on Thursday, potentially reaching record highs in a few spots. As we go into Friday, increasing isentropic lift will increase rain chances across Central AL. Guidance suggests this should remain generally scattered in nature, but might be enough to slightly limit daytime highs compared to Thursday. Regardless, temps will run well above normal.

A cold front is expected to approach the region Saturday before slowing/stalling across the area Sunday into Monday. This will lead to high (70-80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. The front will lift northward Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to decreasing rain chances. However, our next system approaches Wednesday night into Thursday which will be worth watching to see how it evolves over the next few days.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026

VFR conditions are currently present at all sites with a light south-southeasterly wind. Guidance suggests another low-level stratus deck will develop along the Gulf coast region and advect northward through the overnight hours in addition to some patchy fog. Can already see the clouds developing over the Florida Panhandle on satellite imagery. Have all sites falling to MVFR category around 11-14Z as the clouds move inland. Probabilities for IFR are lower. Will see conditions quickly improve by ~15Z as the clouds and fog mix out. VFR expected through the remainder of the day tomorrow with a 5-8 kt wind from the south.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Rain free conditions are expected to generally continue through the next couple of days with Min RHs above critical values. Rain chances increase for Friday with a southerly flow ahead of a weak boundary. Rain chances become more widespread Saturday through Monday as the weak boundary pushes into the region and stalls.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026

Here are the record highs for the upcoming week that may be close to tying or breaking with our current forecast, especially on Thursday. Clouds and rain on Friday may prevent some areas from reaching the max potential.

March 5: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 83/2022 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 85/1989

March 6: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 81/2023 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 86/2022

March 7: KBHM: 84/1956 KEET: 83/2023 KANB: 85/1974 KTCL: 85/2023 KMGM: 87/2023

March 8: KEET: 81/2000

March 9: KEET: 80/2016 KMGM: 85/1974

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 54 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 50 Anniston 56 81 60 82 / 0 10 10 50 Birmingham 58 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 50 Tuscaloosa 58 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 50 Calera 56 83 60 82 / 0 10 10 60 Auburn 58 80 62 81 / 0 10 10 50 Montgomery 57 83 62 81 / 0 10 10 50 Troy 56 83 61 83 / 0 20 10 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.