textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1143 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025

- Another cold night tonight with lows in the lower to middle 20s. Temperatures will gradually warm up through the week.

- High chance (80-90%) for rain Friday/Friday night with a 30% chance of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1143 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025

Today through Thursday:

Dry northwest flow aloft is expected the next couple days along the back side of an eastern CONUS trough. Northwest winds are resulting in a chilly day today. High pressure remains centered along the northwestern Gulf Coast tonight, while a weak clipper system moving from the Great Lakes to the Central Appalachians causes winds to eventually become light westerly by morning. Good radiational cooling conditions are expected with just some passing mid-level clouds, though unsheltered locations may not fully decouple. West winds on Wednesday will start up our warming trend. This will continue on Thursday as winds become southwesterly as high pressure slides eastward and a lee cyclone develops over the Southern Plains.

Friday through Monday:

The remnants of an upper low currently well off the coast of California will push eastward as a couple disorganized shortwaves in westerly flow aloft, eventually moving into the area by Friday/Friday night. An associated surface low will move eastward from the Southern Plains but will be in a weakening phase. A warm front will attempt to lift northward Friday followed by a cold front Friday night. An initial batch of rain with the first shortwave will move across the northern counties during the day with rain-cooled air probably serving as the northern edge of any potential weak warm sector. More widespread rainfall is expected with the next shortwave and cold front Friday night. As lapse rates steepen a bit aloft some weak MUCAPE may allow for some elevated thunderstorms to develop, but chances for any surface- based instability are slim to none at this time. Therefore, very little, if any, severe threat is apparent. Rain eventually ends from northwest to southeast on Saturday.

There won't be much of a push of cold air behind the front. With ridging building aloft over the south-central CONUS, temperatures will trend above normal towards the end of the period.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond. Northwest winds around 8-10kts gusting to 18 kts this afternoon will become light overnight. Winds become westerly tomorrow.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

The cold and dry air mass will remain in place through roughly mid- week before increasing moisture and rain chances build back in Friday into Saturday. RH values will be around 25-30 percent this afternoon with northwesterly 20ft winds gusting to 15-20 mph. Tomorrow RH values will drop to or below 25 percent in the afternoon in a few locations mainly in southern and eastern portions of Central Alabama. Westerly 20ft winds will gust to around 10-15 mph. By Thursday minimum RH values will be in the 30 to 40 percent range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 41 22 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 42 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 41 25 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 43 25 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 44 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 44 27 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 45 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 45 25 53 31 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.