textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 701 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026

- Peak heat indices between 95-100 degrees are expected by midweek, posing a moderate heat risk for Central Alabama

- Moisture wrapping around a cutoff low will support daily showers and storms, primarily across eastern areas, through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026

Water vapor imagery late morning reveals an upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes region down towards the Gulf coast. This trough will leave a cutoff low across the region as the main trough lifts off to the northeast. Moisture wrapping around the low will lead to low to medium chances for showers and storms daily, generally across our eastern areas. By Thursday, the low will begin to drift north, eventually being absorbed by another approaching upper level trough moving across the Ohio Valley. A COL pattern sets up over the weekend, leading to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms into early next week.

Today and tomorrow will be our "coolest" days of the week with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. We start to warm back up by mid week with highs rebounding into the low to mid 90s. Humid conditions will keep max heat indices in the 95-100 degree range which will pose a moderate heat risk for much of Central Alabama.

Otherwise, there is a low (20-30%) chance for patchy fog early Tuesday morning. Latest RAP13 guidance hints at pockets of narrowing dew points and condensation pressure deficits from 1- 3mb, mainly east of I-65. Those that see shower/storm activity today will be more likely to see fog development.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026

Isolated to scattered showers will dissipate over the next hour. Light winds tonight will likely promote fog development early Tuesday morning for areas that received rain today. Similar to this morning, brief IFR ceilings are expected around sunrise, with lingering MVFR ceilings through mid-day. VFR conditions return by the afternoon. Winds will be WNW 5-10 kt through this TAF cycle.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values are expected to stay above 45 percent through Wednesday with high confidence. While easterly flow will introduce drier air on Thursday and Friday, pushing humidity levels down toward 40 percent, light winds will continue to preclude any notable fire weather issues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 89 70 89 / 10 50 20 70 Anniston 68 88 70 88 / 10 60 30 70 Birmingham 70 89 72 89 / 10 30 20 40 Tuscaloosa 70 90 72 91 / 0 10 10 20 Calera 69 90 71 90 / 10 30 10 40 Auburn 71 86 72 86 / 10 50 20 50 Montgomery 70 91 72 92 / 10 20 10 30 Troy 69 90 70 91 / 10 20 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.