textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

- Heat & Humidity: Hot and humid conditions persist through the week, with heat indices peaking between 95 and 100 degrees.

- Active Pattern: The current wet, unsettled pattern will persist through the week, resulting in periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 954 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have been redeveloping this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of this activity has been a bit unorganized as it moves through Central Alabama. The latest runs of the HRRR continue to hint at these storms becoming more organized as it approaches our southeastern areas. Any storms that do develop will primarily pose a damaging wind threat. This activity will gradually move south of us late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

The aforementioned cold front will stall along the Northern Gulf coast on Tuesday, eventually washing out by midweek. Upper level ridging out to our west will leave us in a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Several shortwaves look to rotate through this flow which will help ignite additional showers and storms along and to the south of the lingering boundary. Most of Central Alabama will remain dry tomorrow with the greatest rain chances across our southern tier of counties. We will see an uptick in rain chances on Wednesday as a stronger H5 shortwave moves through the region. As we head into the weekend, rain chances begin to lower as a subtropical ridge takes control. With that said, plentiful moisture will remain in place allowing for low chances of diurnally driven convection daily. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices generally in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

Showers and storms continue to move through AUO/MGM, resulting in gusty winds, reduced visibility and MVFR/IFR ceilings. This activity will push south, clear of any terminals in the next couple of hours. GOES Microphysics imagery reveals a low level stratus deck moving south across North Alabama. MVFR/IFR ceilings will gradually settle in for all sites as this cloud deck pushes south. VFR returns by the mid to late morning hours. Northwest winds will increase through the afternoon with gusts around 20 knots likely for all sites except TCL. Winds become light by 00z Wednesday.

Note: METARs from AUO are available but missing data; therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 60 85 65 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 81 61 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 82 63 86 68 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 85 65 86 69 / 0 0 30 20 Calera 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 10 20 Auburn 85 65 86 68 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 86 65 86 68 / 10 0 10 20 Troy 86 65 87 67 / 10 0 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.