textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026

- A cold front will bring rain to the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with rain chances continuing into Friday.

- Medium to high chance of a wintry mix Friday night through Sunday night for portions of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Through Monday) Issued at 142 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026

Today through Friday

Central Alabama will continue to be cool and dry today in the wake of a weak cold front passing through the region. One more cold night with lows in the 20s is expected tonight. Winds will shift back to southerly by tomorrow, with moisture returning to the area ahead of yet another cold front. This system will be accompanied by rain chances, which should begin to increase by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Models indicate that the front is likely to stall out over Central Alabama Thursday into early Friday, before finally pushing through toward the Gulf Coast during the day Friday. As the front stalls over the region, rain chances remain elevated throughout the day Thursday and into Friday. The latest forecast guidance indicates the potential for 1-1.25" of rain across a large chunk of the area, especially the northwestern quarter, roughly areas north and west of Clanton.

Friday night through Monday

Although rain chances remain in the forecast throughout the day Friday, there may be a brief reprieve behind the front before the big weekend weather maker arrives. A southern stream trough is likely to eject eastward from the Baja California area, originating from a cutoff low off the coast of California late week. Ahead of this trough, a surface low is likely to develop near the Texas coast and track either along the Gulf Coast or just inland Saturday into Sunday. With a fairly cold airmass already in place, especially across northern and western Central Alabama, this will promote an overrunning setup that may become highly favorable for winter precipitation.

Although exact details, such as precip type and amounts, will continue to vary run to run with new model updates, confidence is increasing in some type of winter mischief beginning Friday night across Central Alabama and lasting, in some form or fashion, until Sunday night. At this type, global models such as the GFS and ECMWF are trending more toward a freezing rain setup across much of the central and northern counties, with heavy snowfall currently expected further north across northern MS, AL, GA, and nearly all of TN. Much question remains with the models as to the changeover between snow and ice, but the general consensus currently is for the ice/snow line to meander north and south in North Alabama. With the current forecast, generally more to all snow is expected north of the Tennessee state line, with a higher mix of ice and snow across North Alabama. Northern and central counties in our Central Alabama region currently look to see more in the way of ice accumulation, although it is still a couple days too early to start nailing down projected accumulation amounts.

If current forecast model trends hold, and so far they have for the last 48 hours or so, this could become a dangerous winter event for the northern half of the state of Alabama. It is imperative to stay tuned to forecast updates and any changes over the next three days as the forecast becomes better refined.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

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FIRE WEATHER

Cool and dry conditions continue across Central Alabama over the next couple of days. Min RH will drop into the 15-30% range this afternoon, with generally light northerly winds. 20 ft winds will be a tad higher near the GA state line, up to 8 mph. Winds will shift back to the south or southeast on Wednesday as another cold front moves towards the area, with moisture and rain chances returning in the afternoon and evening hours. Min RH Wednesday afternoon is still likely to fall to 20-30% in areas east of I-65, as moisture takes longer to build in. A wet pattern begins Wednesday night and continues into the weekend. Wintry precipitation chances return for this weekend for portions of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 46 21 55 36 / 0 0 30 70 Anniston 46 24 56 38 / 0 0 20 50 Birmingham 46 29 55 41 / 0 0 30 70 Tuscaloosa 49 29 56 42 / 0 0 30 70 Calera 49 27 57 40 / 0 0 30 60 Auburn 51 30 57 41 / 0 0 10 20 Montgomery 52 29 60 43 / 0 0 10 30 Troy 53 30 59 40 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.