textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Saturday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

Convection is done for tonight. For Saturday on the 4th, only isolated areas of convection will be expected with the best opportunity in the peak heat of the day. Weak ridging will remain in place across either Eastern Conus or the Southeast US through the next 7 days. In the upper levels, a large Eastern Conus ridge is in place from Texas to the Mid Atlantic Coast, centered over Virginia and North Carolina. On Saturday, this ridge should continue to transition to a weaker and flat ridge across the Southern US. Only isolated storms are anticipated during the day Saturday. Afternoon heat indices will remain elevated for one more day, and we will keep the heat advisory going for now at least through the 4th. By Saturday night, a guidance has a low developing over the Great Lakes and digging a trough southward through Eastern Conus. This may yield a few storms to look out for Saturday evening on the 4th.

By Sunday, higher rain chances may help us top out a couple of degrees lower, and we may be able to escape the heat advisory for then. This will be due in part to the developing trough and possibly more organized convection as the upper ridge upper ridge breaks down. Even though slightly better moisture may be available on Sunday for more coverage, the best chances are still in the afternoon. Medium chances for diurnal convection continue into the end of the extended period as the upper low is expected to dig across Eastern Conus on Monday into Tuesday. By Wednesday, this low should move off of the New England coast. However, even with that rain chances stay somewhat diurnally elevated as a surface front pushes into Eastern Conus with convection to the south of it. There is a medium to high chance of this front stalling over the Tennessee Valley and pushing back to the north on Thursday and well away from Alabama.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

Expect dry conditions overnight with gradual decreasing mid to high-level clouds over the area. VFR conditions will prevail through mid Saturday morning except for some brief potential for lower visibility at most sites around daybreak. Scattered cumulus will develop through the midday and into the early afternoon hours with chances for showers later in the afternoon.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into next week, with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 60 20 Anniston 93 74 93 73 / 20 20 60 30 Birmingham 94 76 93 74 / 20 20 60 30 Tuscaloosa 95 76 93 75 / 20 20 60 20 Calera 97 75 95 74 / 20 20 60 20 Auburn 93 76 92 74 / 20 20 50 30 Montgomery 95 76 94 74 / 20 20 50 20 Troy 94 75 93 73 / 20 20 40 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Clay- Cleburne-Lee-Macon-Pike-Randolph-Russell.