textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning across northwestern portions of Central Alabama.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. Details involving timing and hazards will be refined as we get closer.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026

One more rain free day is to be expected for Thu as we continue to slowly warm ahead of our next weather system. Surface ridging remains across the Deep South. In the upper levels, as today's earlier system exits to the E, a low pressure system over the NRN US Rockies will move into AB/SK in Canada on Thu. The flow across the Deep South will become weaker during this time in between systems.

Better moisture will become available starting Fri and into the weekend with more onshore flow and even warmer temperatures. The upper low over SK in Canada will slowly move EWD into MB Canada over the weekend into Mon. As it does so, shortwave activity will rotate around the main low with low to moderate chances of impacts affecting the Deep South. C AL will transition into a wetter pattern for Fri. Storms that develop to our W are expected to spread into AL during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. While the better energy and instability on Fri is expected to be to our W, there is a low (1 out of 5 chance) that some of the activity could still be strong by the time it gets into AL for a few marginally severe thunderstorms to occur. The best chances will be across the NW counties. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Sat as a surface boundary moves into the region. It will likely stall across the SRN part of the state on Sun before moving back NWD.

By Mon, the associated surface low will continue NEWD toward the Upper Midwest US. This will drag the front back across AL Mon into Tue. Along and ahead of this front, there is a low to medium chance (2 out of 5 chance) of strong to severe storms for Mon into Mon night. The intensity of the convection is somewhat dependent on how much energy is tapped with the convection that develops on Sun upstream of AL. If less occurs upstream, chances are greater for a more robust convection day for Mon into early Tue for portions of the Lower MS River Valley, including portions of C AL. While there is some uncertainty as to the exact placement of the main low and other parameters with this system, the probability for impacts remains, and will need continued refinement as we get closer to Mon.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026

There is a high confidence of maintaining VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure continues with light winds tonight. Winds will increase slightly out of the south in response to a surface low developing across the Plains, generally 5-10 knots. Winds become light and variable once again Thursday evening.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will be the main story through the next few days as we near or exceed critical RH values during the afternoons. With high pressure in place, winds should remain generally light and variable, but elevated fire concerns are still present due to the dry fuels and low humidity values. There will be a shift in the pattern as we head into the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Friday and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 54 84 59 / 0 0 10 80 Anniston 83 56 83 60 / 0 0 10 70 Birmingham 84 59 84 63 / 0 0 20 80 Tuscaloosa 84 58 83 63 / 0 0 30 80 Calera 84 57 84 62 / 0 0 20 80 Auburn 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 10 40 Montgomery 84 56 86 62 / 0 0 20 50 Troy 83 55 85 61 / 10 0 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.