textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026

- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama tonight into early Thursday morning. Threats include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.

- There is a medium to high chance for frost development Friday morning as temperatures drop into the mid 30s for locations in North-Central AL.

- There is a medium chance for freezing temperatures next Tuesday morning for much of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026

Rain and thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves through Central AL later this evening and overnight. Our morning sounding showed a pretty sharp inversion, but the expectation is that should be overcome with heating today, leading to instability generally around 700-1000 J/kg. 0-6km shear is over 40kt with vectors generally parallel to the frontal boundary. This should lead to primarily and damaging wind and hail threat with storms as they move through. However, as with any QLCS event, any storm interactions or bowing segments can lead to a localized storm relative increase in low level shear and therefore an increase in the tornado threat. So far, guidance continues to show a low chance of a few storms developing in the warm sector ahead of the line. If this were to occur, they would be capable of tapping into a much richer environment in the mid to late afternoon. Otherwise, the line of storms is expected to move into our northwestern counties in the evening hours and continue through Central AL from NW to SE, exiting by 7am Thursday morning.

With the recent rainfall across the area over the past 48-72 hours, many of our creeks and streams have elevated flow. There's at least a low chance that the 1-2" rain rates that accompany this system will lead to flooding concerns in low-lying or common poor drainage areas.

Thursday will be cooler as the cooler and dry airmass builds into the region. The daytime highs will likely top out in the upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area. That cooler air mass will settle into the region through the day and with clear skies and calm winds, low temperatures Friday morning will likely drop back into the mid 30s to low 40s. A few of our cooler spots in the north will see areas of frost Friday morning and I wouldn't be shocked if our coldest microclimates hit freezing briefly.

Broad low-level ridging with zonal flow aloft will persist Friday through Saturday leading to a general moderation of daytime temperatures as we head into the weekend. A deeper trough is expected to dig into the Central US Sunday and will push an even stronger cold front into Central AL Sunday night into Monday. We could see a severe threat materialize for at least a portion of the area with the front, but confidence isn't quite there yet to highlight specifics with some question on the thermodynamics and low level forcing being displaced from the upper level forcing. However, it's something we'll continue to watch as we go forward.

Monday and Tuesday will be much colder behind this next front. Temperatures Tuesday morning are trending below freezing for much of the area, so we'll be looking at a early growing season freeze potential early next week.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026

Showers and storms are beginning to move into the area early this evening as a cold front moves our way. Showers will spread across all terminals over then next few hours. Transitioned to TEMPO groups to account for the TSRA activity. MVFR/IFR cigs and vis are likely with any passing shower/storm. Gusty winds are likely to accompany this activity as well. -RA and MVFR cigs will linger through sunrise. Rain looks to quickly drop off during the morning as drier air moves into the region. VFR returns by ~15Z. Breezy northerly winds are likely through much of the day Thursday with gusts from 20-25 knots.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front is expected to move through late this evening and overnight. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected with a sharp wind shift from southwesterly to northerly as the front moves through. Gusty winds are expected with this system with gusts up to 20-25mph. Behind the front, RHs drop quickly with this colder and drier air mass. MinRHs Thursday and Friday will drop in the low 30% range and will remain in the 30-40% range through Saturday before increased moisture return ahead of our next system Sunday into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 41 58 33 67 / 100 20 0 0 Anniston 45 58 35 68 / 100 30 0 0 Birmingham 43 58 38 68 / 100 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 44 61 37 70 / 100 10 0 0 Calera 44 60 37 70 / 100 20 0 0 Auburn 50 61 40 68 / 90 60 0 0 Montgomery 49 62 38 69 / 90 40 0 0 Troy 49 64 40 70 / 90 50 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.