textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026

- Dry conditions and comfortable mornings will persist through mid-week.

- Look for increasing chances of showers and storms starting Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend, with 3-4 inches of rainfall expected.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026

Water vapor imagery reveals an upper trough stretching down to the northern Gulf as a ridge builds out to our west. Drier air and surface high pressure in place across the region will keep dry conditions in place for the next couple of days. The surface high will begin to scoot east during the day today, which will allow for a moist southerly flow to return. As a result we will see a gradual uptick in humidity and temperatures. Chances for showers and storms return to the forecast Friday afternoon as an upper trough moves across the Plains. An associated cold front will head our way late in the work week, eventually working through the region over the weekend. The exact timing remains uncertain at this time as there are some signs of it stalling over the first half of the weekend before pushing through. Regardless, we are looking at medium to high chances for showers and storms over the weekend and continuing into early next week as southerly flow ushers a healthy plume of tropical moisture across the southeast. Forecast soundings hint at a skinny CAPE profile and a warm cloud depth up to 15kft, suggesting locally heavy rainfall is likely with any shower or storm over the weekend. Rainfall amounts have increased since our last forecast update. We are now looking at 3-4" with isolated pockets over 4" through the weekend.

The front finally pushes through early next week, bringing some cooler air back to Central Alabama with high temps topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. Winds will be light out of the east this afternoon, becoming variable overnight.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will persist through the first half of the week with light winds. RH values this afternoon will fall to around 20-30% across the region. Humidity values slowly start to increase starting Wednesday as southerly flow returns. Rain chances return for the latter part of the week into this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 91 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 58 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 59 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 58 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 61 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 59 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 59 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.