textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast starting Saturday, persisting through next week.

- High temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to near 90 each day through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026

Upper-level ridging will continue to break down overnight, allowing for the region to come under the influence of a closed low slowly working into the central Plains. Rain chances will begin to increase in our far SW zones on Saturday, before expanding in coverage on Sunday as a shortwave works through the region. This closed low will allow for a series of shortwaves to work through the region through Monday, before a somewhat deeper trough overtakes the region on Tuesday.

The forecast starts to become a bit more uncertain here, as guidance paints roughly two scenarios. The first is the trough taking an odd elongated shape, allowing for a bit more rainfall coverage from Wednesday onward. The other scenario is this trough gets shifted farther east, with a ridge starting to build in to our west. While showers and thunderstorms would stay in the forecast with this scenario, they would likely be limited to scattered, diurnally driven activity in the afternoon. Regardless, rain looks to stay in the forecast in some capacity, with afternoon highs climbing to above 90 degrees during the middle of next week as well.

/44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue for a majority of this TAF period. Mid-level ridging will shift eastward today in response to a cutoff low lifting north-northeastward over Texas. We already have an increase in high-level clouds across the area downstream of this feature, and ceilings are expected to fall tonight as an associated shortwave trough moves across Central Alabama. IFR ceilings are expected at most sites except MGM/AUO by 08-12Z with a PROB30 introduced during that time at TCL for SHRA associated with the shortwave trough.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will begin to break down overnight, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to return to the forecast. Because of that, MinRH values will climb to above 50% come Sunday, and linger here or higher for most of the upcoming week. Given daily rain chances and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 88 68 82 69 / 0 20 70 30 Anniston 88 69 82 70 / 0 10 60 20 Birmingham 88 71 83 71 / 0 30 80 30 Tuscaloosa 89 72 84 72 / 10 40 90 40 Calera 90 70 85 70 / 0 20 80 30 Auburn 88 70 85 71 / 0 0 30 10 Montgomery 90 71 86 71 / 10 10 60 10 Troy 90 70 87 71 / 10 10 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.