textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for Saturday and Sunday across the southern third of the state. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a shortwave rotating along the Northern Gulf coast and a trailing cut off low churning along the Baja coast. This upper level support combined with a stalled boundary draped along the Gulf coast is resulting in some light shower activity across the southern half of the CWA. As we warm up through the day, I would expect to see an uptick in coverage with a few isolated thunderstorms working their way into the mix. As we head into the overnight hours, a cluster of thunderstorms will be ongoing back off to our west. Recent CAMs hint at this activity moving into our western areas around 09-10Z and exiting our CWA by mid morning. This activity is likely to pose a risk for strong winds and small hail.

The aforementioned upper low over the Baja will open up as it moves across Texas. Several bouts of upper level energy will eject across the region as it becomes absorbed in the main flow. This will lead to continued chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, generally across our southern counties. More of the same is expected on Sunday as ripples in the upper flow continue to traverse the southeastern US.

Another cold front will be sent our way late Sunday into Monday as a stout upper low moves across the Great Lakes region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of this boundary as moisture pools across the region. Much drier air filters into the area in the wake of this front, leading to rain-free conditions through the middle of the week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026

A stalled front extends east to west across the Gulf Coast region which is supporting a coverage of high-level clouds across Central Alabama and some rain and storms along the coast. VFR conditions are currently in place and will generally persist through the afternoon hours. Some -RA is present across the southern portions of the state and may move within the vicinity of MGM, but are not expected to impact flight criteria at this time. Impacts will develop after 06Z, however, as low-level moisture increases and IFR ceilings develop at all terminals. A cluster of storms is expected to pass west to east across the area in the 09-14Z time frame as well, affecting all terminals. IFR ceilings are expected to persist through the morning hours tomorrow and through the end of this TAF period.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing rain chances through the weekend will help keep min RH values generally above 50%. Drier air returns on Monday in the wake of a cold front with min RH values falling to 30-40% by Tuesday afternoon. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 53 78 55 81 / 40 30 20 30 Anniston 56 77 57 81 / 70 40 20 40 Birmingham 58 79 61 82 / 70 40 20 40 Tuscaloosa 59 79 61 82 / 70 50 20 40 Calera 57 79 60 83 / 80 50 20 50 Auburn 60 76 62 80 / 80 70 50 60 Montgomery 59 77 61 81 / 80 80 50 60 Troy 60 77 62 81 / 80 80 50 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.