textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast today, persisting through the week. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding.

- High temperatures will climb back up this week with readings from the middle 80s to the lower 90s. Heat indices near 100 degrees are forecast by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Nothing major has really changed regarding the overall thinking with the forecast for the next seven days. The first shortwave is expected to work through the region starting this morning, greatly increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through the evening hours. Another shortwave will work through the region on Monday, with additional shower and thunderstorms chances expected for most of the area. The main focus for higher rainfall amounts will be in our NW zones, with mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere.

By Tuesday, the closed low that will be the catalyst for all of these shortwaves will finally trek into the Midwest, transitioning into a deeper trough. From here, guidance is still split on the progression of this weak trough. Some guidance keeps the trough lingering just to our east, which would allow for more organized rain chances in our east zones into the weekend. Other guidance quickly builds an upper-level ridge over Texas, pushing the trough farther to the east. This would keep rain in the forecast, but limit it to diurnally driven, scattered afternoon activity. With that being said, both of these solutions involve upper-level ridging to our west, resulting in a steady climb in temperatures through the new workweek. By Friday, most locations across the region will have climbed into the low-90s, with low- 90s expected into the start of next weekend.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

-SHRA is overspreading the area this morning in association with a passing shortwave trough and large increase in moisture content. Ceilings have been gradually falling over the past few hours, and there's high confidence for MVFR/IFR conditions to develop and persist through much of this TAF period at all sites. TSRA will be possible this afternoon as well.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will begin to break down allowing for showers and thunderstorms to return to the forecast. Because of that, MinRH values will climb to above 50% by Sunday, and linger here or higher for most of the upcoming week. Given daily rain chances and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 80 69 82 68 / 90 60 80 40 Anniston 80 69 81 68 / 80 60 80 40 Birmingham 80 70 82 69 / 90 50 60 20 Tuscaloosa 83 72 84 71 / 90 40 50 10 Calera 82 70 84 69 / 90 50 60 10 Auburn 82 70 83 70 / 50 30 40 20 Montgomery 83 70 85 70 / 80 30 40 10 Troy 84 70 86 70 / 70 20 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.