textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025

- Seasonable temperatures expected the remainder of the week with little chance for rain until the weekend.

- Dangerously cold temperatures expected Sunday night through Monday morning with wind chill values dropping to 10-15 degrees (with a chance at a few single digits far north) by Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025

Look for our airmass to moderate tonight through Sat daytime, with cool temperatures in the morning (30s) and above normal mild readings by afternoon in the upper 50s to the middle 60s as our ridge nudges EWD ahead of our upcoming potent system. A 1040mb ridge will slide SEWD out of Central Canada on Sat. This will allow for a cold front to move through C AL late Sat into Sun. Behind it on Sun, a strong 1044 mb ridge will slide from MN/IA into ERN Conus with much colder temperatures possible for the first part of next week. Confidence is increasing for some very cold temperatures and wind chills for Sun night into early Mon, including some teens across the northwest 2/3 of C AL for lows Mon morning. Guidance is indicating that winds could stay up as well as the cold airmass presses SEWD. This will mean low wind chills for much of the night. Will be watching closely to see if this airmass continues to be this cold behind the front, or if it modifies some as we get closer. There is a low to medium chance that we could have our first cold weather advisory for the season. (cold wx advisory is for wind chills: 0-10 NRN counties and 5-15 SRN counties).

08

Previous discussion: (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 1108 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025

Seasonable conditions expected through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds in across the region. This should keep the area rain-free through at least the weekend.

The pattern changes over the weekend as a trough digs southward through the Eastern CONUS and pushes a cold front through Alabama Saturday night through Sunday morning. This will likely be more of a light to moderate rain with generally less than a quarter- inch of rainfall expected. The main story is the very cold air behind the front. A continental polar airmass is expected to move into the region Sunday with daytime highs not reaching above freezing for some of our northern locations on Sunday. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the upper teens to low 20s area-wide.

Temperatures then moderate slightly Tuesday into Wednesday as the center of the surface high shifts eastward.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025

VFR TAFs are expected for the 24 hour forecast with surface ridging present over the Gulf Coast States. Look for only some occasional cirrus with unrestricted vsbys. Winds will be light/variable today into tonight with the ridging. The ridge center will shift EWD on Fri ahead of our next system. As a result, winds will become SW by mid morning, 13-15z, ~ 6-9kts.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected this afternoon with MinRHs ranging from 35% - 45%. Rain-free conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week before another frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances increase with this front, but widespread wetting rains may be on the lower side. Much colder air builds in Sunday through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 49 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 49 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 37 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 52 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 53 34 64 40 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 52 36 63 45 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 54 34 67 45 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 55 34 67 46 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.