textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 624 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: There is level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern portions of Alabama for Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026

The radar is clear across Central Alabama late this evening with only a few storms near the Gulf Coast. Our surface boundary of late has progressed today to the southern third of Alabama and has stalled. It is expected to linger in this area through the short term through early Tuesday. In the upper levels, a low is present over Ontario and Quebec and southward into the Great Lakes and much of Eastern Conus. At the same time, there is also a large ridge that extends from Arizona to Texas. This leaves Central Alabama in a northwest flow regime. Look for isolated to scattered waves of convection at times through Monday, generally in the southern third of Central Alabama with heating, more so toward the coast. On Tuesday, the surface boundary is expected to meander back northward before fizzling out on Wednesday. However, the northwest flow will assist in another front making it into the area in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will keep unsettled conditions along with scattered slightly higher storm chances in through the latter part of the forecast as moisture increases. Guidance with this late week front has it likely stalling across Central Alabama as well next weekend.

Through much of the 7 day forecast, a few upper lows rotate through the current trough area over Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with varying degrees of southward progression into Eastern Conus, but overall some degree of troughing remains through the end of this week. Our Southwest US ridge remains as well until Friday. The difference from yesterday's guidance is that we could see an expansion of the ridge eastward across the Southern US this weekend. This will mean higher pops Wednesday into Friday, but by next weekend we could see a warming trend if the ridge expands.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in greater coverage this afternoon. Low confidence in timing/coverage supports only a PROB30 group at MGM through 25/01z for TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions are set to prevail for the rest of this TAF period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Drier air may be slow to vacate the area with one more day possible for lower minimum relative humidity values (35 to 45%) for some locations on Monday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins as we head into midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 91 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 Birmingham 92 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 95 72 95 72 / 20 10 10 10 Calera 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Auburn 90 71 90 71 / 20 20 10 10 Montgomery 95 72 94 71 / 30 20 20 10 Troy 94 70 93 70 / 30 20 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.