textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for late Wednesday into Thursday. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the main threats.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Our current satellite picture is clear across Central Alabama as high pressure is situated across Texas and northeastward through the Carolinas. At the same time, a surface low is present across Ontario with an associated front extending southward across the Great Lakes then southwestward into the Central Plains and curving back into the Rockies. A second deeper surface low is also present across Manitoba. Over the next day, the second stronger low is expected to continue eastward and overtake the first system. This second system and developing front will be one to watch that will bring our next elevated chance for rain and a chance for severe weather by midweek.

In the upper levels, the previous longwave trough across Eastern CONUS has pushed into New England. Flat ridging remains across the Rockies along with another developing low digging across the Pacific US Coast. Closer to home across Alabama, a weak perturbation is approaching through the zonal flow. Cirrus is noted on satellite over Mississippi currently. However, we are very dry across Alabama at present, and no precipitation is anticipated with this disturbance tonight. A few cirrus will continue across the state with it, but the lower levels will be too dry for anything of significance to occur. Rain-free conditions are expected to continue across the area through the day Tuesday. Although rain chances do not return until midweek, temperatures will continue to slowly warm for the first part of next week as our airmass moderates and the surface ridge weakens.

Another storm system and associated cold front will approach the Deep South by Wednesday. Elevated rain chances will accompany this system with a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front late Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a slight chance (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama as this system moves through. The main threats will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Guidance continues to suggest that the greatest instability will be across the southeast part of Texas on through Mississippi Wednesday. However, elevated instability will be present across portions of Central Alabama as well. The strongest in our area is anticipated to be over the western counties. However, with expected dew points in the 60s across Central Alabama (even a few in the lower 70s) and frontal forcing, we will be closely watching guidance and will continue to refine the forecast as we get closer to Wednesday.

The latest guidance pushes the front through on Thursday with cooler readings and lower rain chances for Thursday night into Saturday along with another bump back down in temperatures.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Confidence remains high for VFR conditions throughout the TAF period due to surface high pressure and dry air. Northwest winds this afternoon will become south-southwest on Monday due to shifts in the surface ridge.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

The lowest MinRH values will be present this afternoon, between 25-35%. However, winds are remaining below critical levels. MinRH values are expected to rebound about 5% each day for Sunday through Tuesday as our flow changes with shifts in the surface ridge. Overall moisture will increase significantly by Wednesday, as the next organized system works into the region. Confidence is high for wetting rains Wednesday night, with some locations expecting over an inch of rain. Given recent rainfall, and the upcoming rainfall, this should keep fire weather concerns limited.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 42 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 46 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 49 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 47 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 50 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 47 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 46 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.