textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 124 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026

- A stretch of fair weather takes shape this week and continues through the weekend.

- There is a medium to high chance for some communities across Central Alabama to see their first 90 day this weekend or early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026

A shortwave trough will move across the northern Gulf and Florida today and tonight as a larger trough swings across the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Lingering cloudiness and showers atop southeast Alabama will gradually come to an end later today as the Gulf system exits to the east; meanwhile, the Great Lakes system is forecast to send a front our way late tomorrow afternoon to evening. With the front not being all that pronounced, there's a very low chance (<10%) for it to produce some sprinkles or a couple light showers along its band of broken clouds. This chance is low enough that it's not explicitly stated in the official forecast, but a low chance (10-20%) may be introduced in future updates if high-resolution models show enough of a signal.

Otherwise, the rest of the 7-day forecast features fair weather and warmer conditions. As a mid-level ridge translates across the region, some communities stand a medium to high chance of reaching 90 for the first time this year. Ensemble model data suggest the western perimeter of the ridge becoming weaker mid to late next week as a series of troughs move across the central U.S. Should this occur, opportunities for showers and thunderstorms would arise. Being that far out in time, that part of the forecast is far from being "settled." We'll see how things trend over the coming days.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026

MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon for MGM-AUO with a low chance for a brief, nearby shower, due to a front and shortwave trough just to the south/southeast. VFR conditions are forecast for all Central Alabama terminals tonight and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

A period of rain-free weather will take shape this week and continue this weekend as high pressure builds into the region. MinRH is forecast to reach the 30 percent range Thursday and Friday for much of Central Alabama with a low chance for some locations to reach the upper 20s. Otherwise, no (relatively) low RHs are forecast over the next 7 days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 52 82 52 76 / 0 10 10 0 Anniston 54 79 52 75 / 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 58 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 83 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 56 83 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 57 80 59 77 / 0 10 0 0 Montgomery 57 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 56 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.