textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1114 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

- Thunderstorms: Organized thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through Wednesday. A few of these storms may produce localized gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

The closed low still finds itself in central Tennessee, with it still slowly tracking to the SE. By later this afternoon, the low should have meandered into north Georgia, where it will continue to sit for the next 24-36 hours or so. As we head into Tuesday night, this low is still projected to start shifting to the west, working right through central Alabama, as a ridge starts to build in over the East Coast. In turn, organized rain chances will remain in the forecast through Wednesday, as we remain under the influence of this closed low. By Thursday however, rain chances will shift towards the typical summertime diurnal convection that we're so used to seeing this time of the year.

As we head into the weekend, guidance starts to split regarding the trajectory of this ridge. A few long range members have the ridge establishing itself, allowing for afternoon highs to climb back into the low to mid-90s. Other members keep the scope of this ridge suppressed, as another deep trough begins to take shape over New England. This would allow for afternoon highs to remain slightly cooler, remaining in the upper-80s to low-90s. Unfortunately, these scenarios essentially boil down to "hot" and "still hot, just not as much." for us heading into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

Widespread showers and storms will remain in the forecast for most of the next 48-hours. However, given the scattered nature in the coverage, confidence is only high enough to carry PROB30 groups for TSRA at this time. Reduced CIGs are expected past 13/09, with all terminals carrying IFR or LIFR conditions through 13/16z. As widespread showers and thunderstorms get going tomorrow afternoon, look for additional PROB30 groups for TSRA past 13/19z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will remain above critical thresholds through Wednesday, as the moist air mass will persist through the middle of the new workweek. Widespread rainfall will also remain in the forecast, as a weak system lingers over the region. Given the elevated MinRH and rainfall chances, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 85 69 84 / 70 80 60 90 Anniston 71 84 70 83 / 70 80 60 90 Birmingham 72 86 70 84 / 70 70 60 90 Tuscaloosa 72 86 71 84 / 70 70 60 90 Calera 71 87 70 85 / 80 80 60 90 Auburn 72 84 71 83 / 70 60 60 90 Montgomery 72 86 70 85 / 80 70 60 90 Troy 71 84 69 85 / 50 70 50 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.