textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

- Periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the week, with low to medium chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

We are continuing with a wet pattern thanks to a southerly flow both in the lower levels and the upper levels. In the lower levels, surface ridging is situated eastward off the coast from the Carolinas to Florida with onshore flow around it into Alabama. At the same time in the upper levels, Alabama is caught in between a ridge from Florida southeastward and a large low over the Western US Coast again with southerly flow in between. Wednesday is expected to be another day of diurnally enhanced elevated rain chances for the afternoon with no main focus.

On Thursday, the latest guidance indicates that ridging will break down over Florida into the Western Atlantic Coast. More upper disturbances will start to meander across the Deep South from shortwave activity ejecting toward Alabama from the Western US main low through the flow. Upper flow will transition on Friday, to a more west-northwest flow as an upper low moves northeast over the Northern Rockies, ridging expands northward some from Mexico and the Western Gulf, and a second large low feature cycles over Eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England. It will allow for a surface frontal boundary to nudge into Alabama Friday and slowly nudge southward across the state over the weekend. All of this change will result in even better rain chances for Friday through Monday. Lower rain chances will continue behind the front for portions of the area on Tuesday until the large upper system can swing across Eastern Conus.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

IFR conditions are the rule early this morning for central Alabama TAF sites, with ceilings ranging from 300 to 600 ft everywhere except AUO. It is going to take until at least 15Z to get some improvement (and the clouds may very well fill back in at AUO before that time as well). Low levels will remain quite moisture laden through the period. So while ceilings are expected to eventually lift above 3000 ft, there's still bound to be some scattered cumulus clouds remaining through the afternoon that could periodically get reported as BKN.

Will need to watch the progress of a bowing line of convection moving across LA this morning. If it holds together, there's a small chance it could affect MGM or AUO later today. Elsewhere, just PROB30 with scattered (less organized) afternoon convection.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of the week across Central Alabama. This pattern will lead to high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low clouds or fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 66 84 65 / 60 30 60 40 Anniston 84 67 84 66 / 60 30 60 40 Birmingham 85 68 84 68 / 50 30 70 50 Tuscaloosa 86 69 85 69 / 60 30 80 50 Calera 86 68 86 67 / 60 20 70 40 Auburn 82 68 84 68 / 70 20 50 40 Montgomery 84 68 84 68 / 70 20 60 30 Troy 84 67 85 67 / 70 20 60 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.