textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 534 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Friday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Friday.

- Thunderstorms: Portions of the region are under a level 1 to 2, out of 5, risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

Convection has tapered down for the night and we are in a lull in activity until Thursday afternoon. Weak ridging will remain in place across either Eastern Conus or the Southeast US through the next 7 days. In the upper levels, a large Eastern Conus ridge is in place, centered over Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee. Through the short term, the center is expected to shift to the east toward Virginia and North Carolina. By Saturday, this will result in a weaker and flat ridge across the Southern US. Look for isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced convection as disturbances propagate around this ridge. Some strong storms may occur Thursday similar to today with gusty winds being the main threat. Also, afternoon heat indices will remain elevated for another day with a heat advisory continuing for the northwest two thirds of Central Alabama. This advisory may need to be continued into Friday and Saturday for at least the northwest half of the area if current guidance trends continue.

As we head into Sunday, guidance indicates a break in the upper ridge as a low digs over the Great Lakes. Slightly better moisture may be available on Sunday for medium chances for convection and more coverage with the best chances still in the afternoon. Medium chances for diurnal convection continue into the end of the extended period as the upper low is expected to dig across Eastern Conus on Monday. By Tuesday into Wednesday, this low should move off of the New England coast but leave broad troughing southwest into much of Conus and continued diurnal convection chances.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

Patchy MVFR fog is possible towards dawn at EET, TCL, and MGM. Otherwise, winds will become east-northeast to southeast at 5- 10 kts during the day. Scattered showers and storms are expected in the afternoon and into the early evening, with convection timing from 20z through 02z for the north; a PROB30 has been included for BHM, EET, and TCL.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into the weekend, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The main axis of rain activity will be in the northern half of Central Alabama. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 97 76 96 75 / 30 30 40 10 Anniston 95 75 95 75 / 30 30 30 10 Birmingham 96 77 96 77 / 30 20 40 10 Tuscaloosa 95 77 96 76 / 20 20 30 10 Calera 96 76 98 75 / 20 20 30 10 Auburn 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 96 75 96 76 / 10 10 20 0 Troy 94 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.