textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 539 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

- Significant Heat Risk: Maximum afternoon heat indices will remain between 105-108 degrees through the weekend. A heat advisory remains in effect until 8 PM Sunday.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening across all of central Alabama. The main threat will be isolated damaging winds up to 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

At Midnight, an upper-level ridge is stretched from Northern Mexico into the Central Plains, maintaining weak northeasterly flow over Central Alabama. In the lower levels, weak surface ridging persists over the Western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Convection from earlier has left several boundaries across the area. With northerly flow aloft ushering scattered showers and storms into our northern counties, we will need to monitor for any increasing convective trends. Short-term model guidance is inconsistent, ranging from robust coverage to minimal development through sunrise. Consequently, the forecast for the next 6 to 10 hours will be adjusted based on radar trends and boundary collisions.

Confidence is higher that a surface boundary will slide into the area later today, bringing another round of showers and storms. There is a medium chance of convection, particularly along and south of this boundary. With lingering heat, any convection along the boundary will have the potential to become strong to marginally severe, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms remains through the evening, generally across the southern half of the region, with gusty winds as the primary threat. We will also monitor for any training or redevelopment over the same areas, which could lead to localized flooding.

Monday into Tuesday, the upper ridge expands eastward across the CONUS. The best chances for convection will remain across the southern portions of the area, closer to the surface boundary and any upper disturbances moving westward around the base of the ridge. Guidance suggests a breakdown of the upper ridge by mid- week as large-scale troughing develops along the Mississippi River Valley out of Canada. Toward late week, northwest flow across the Central U.S. should help push another front toward the Southeast.

The approaching surface boundary should lower temperatures slightly and introduce drier air. While conditions will remain hot, they should stay just below our heat advisory criteria for Monday and Tuesday.

16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

Fog has been reluctant to form around KMGM and KAUO this morning, and it seems unlikely to expect any significant issues from now through 13Z. The main concern for this forecast cycle is the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms which could pose a risk for microbursts in addition to reduced visibility. A PROB30 for TSRA was included for all sites except KBHM, where early morning convection may have reduced the potential for afternoon development.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 40% into next week. Low to moderate (20 to 50%) chances of showers and storms will be present this weekend with the best chances in the south today. Low (10 to 30%) chances for showers and storms will be in the forecast daily next week. Fire weather concerns are currently low, but decreasing soil moisture will begin to raise these concerns by next week given a lack of forecast rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 98 72 91 70 / 20 10 20 0 Anniston 96 71 90 71 / 20 20 30 10 Birmingham 98 74 93 72 / 20 10 20 0 Tuscaloosa 101 74 98 74 / 30 10 20 10 Calera 98 73 94 72 / 30 20 20 10 Auburn 95 72 89 71 / 40 40 40 20 Montgomery 97 73 95 73 / 40 20 30 20 Troy 96 72 94 71 / 40 30 50 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.