textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026

- Dry conditions and comfortable mornings will persist through mid-week

- Low to medium rain/storm chances return late Friday through the weekend as a cold front approaches and stalls.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper trough cutting across the Tennessee Valley and an upper level ridge out to our west. If we look closely, we can see a shortwave rotating along the western periphery of the trough. This feature will move through the area over the next couple of days. However, the lack of sufficient moisture will keep us dry for the next several days. Similar to yesterday, the KBMX radar is picking up some light shower activity. It is very unlikely that any of this precipitation will make it to the surface as we have much drier air in the low levels per the 12Z KBMX sounding.

Low to medium chances for showers and storms return to the forecast late in the week as a stout upper trough moves across the Plains. An associated cold front will head our way late in the work week, eventually working through the region over the weekend. The exact timing remains uncertain at this time as there are some signs of it stalling over the first half of the weekend before pushing through. Regardless, we are looking at low to medium chances for showers and storms returning to the forecast Friday afternoon and continuing into early next week as southerly flow ushers a healthy plume of tropical moisture across the southeast. Forecast soundings hint at a skinny CAPE profile and a warm cloud depth up to 15kft, suggesting locally heavy rainfall is likely with any shower or storm over the weekend. Rainfall amounts are likely to range from 2-3" Friday through the weekend with a low (15-20%) chance for amounts of 3" per the latest LREF.

We kick off a warming trend this week with highs rebounding into the low 90s by Wednesday. Drier air in place will help us maintain our cooler mornings with lows dropping down into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees through mid week. As we head into the late stages of the work week, a moist southerly flow will bump out overnight lows up into the upper 60s to low 70s. Increased rain chances/cloud cover will help knock a few degrees off our highs next weekend.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026

VFR conditions and light winds around 5 knots are expected through this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will persist through the first half of this week with light winds keeping overall concerns low. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will drop into the middle 20 to lower 30 percent range through Tuesday as the drying trend continues. Humidity values slowly start to increase starting Wednesday. Rain chances return for the latter part of the week into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 53 86 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 52 87 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 87 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 57 91 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 55 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 58 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 58 87 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 58 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.