textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026

- Tropical: Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly to the northwest then west across the Northern Gulf Coast through this week. At this time, no significant impacts are expected for Central Alabama.

- Heat: Moderate heat risk continues through Wednesday with heat indices reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 105 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026

Guidance and NHC tract continue to keep Tropical Storm Bertha moving a little further to the northwest before turning to the west and hugging the Louisiana Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday before the most likely outcome of a landfall along the Southeast Texas Coast late Friday. Impacts from Betha's northwest then west track for Central Alabama will be east to southeast winds slightly elevated with a few minor gusts, but under wind advisory for Tuesday and a few showers across mainly the southeast half of the area. At the same time upper high pressure will be situated from West Texas to Oklahoma and Arkansas. Northwest upper flow will result across the Dakotas and Upper Plains from being wedged between the ridge and an Eastern Canada low. Also over Eastern Canada will be a surface low that will drag a front across the Great Lakes and Mid Mississippi River Valley through mid week with favorable assistance from the upper northwest flow. However, this front is expected to stall across the middle part of Alabama late Wednesday into Thursday. It is expected to remain across Central Alabama through late Friday into early Saturday before pushing back northward into Tennessee as a warm front. This will keep the area in a wet pattern more so after Bertha departs from mid week into this weekend.

While most of the convection from Bertha is along the southeast sections, hot and humid air will continue to allow for heat indices to approach up to the 105-106 range for the northwest sections for Tuesday once again. A heat advisory remains in effect. These conditions may linger for one more day for Wednesday depending on the speed of the system/front coming from the northwest. Later today if guidance continues to indicate this, the heat advisory may need to be extended for one more day for Wednesday.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026

There is a medium to high chance of MVFR to IFR ceilings impacting KMGM and KAUO this morning, before a resumption of prevailing VFR conditions. East to southeast winds will increase with gusts up to 20 knots during the afternoon at KMGM and KAUO. Weaker winds are expected elsewhere. Added PROB30 at KMGM and KAUO after 18Z for potential showers on the outskirts of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central Alabama. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 95 75 93 72 / 10 10 50 50 Anniston 93 74 92 74 / 10 10 50 50 Birmingham 95 76 94 74 / 10 10 40 40 Tuscaloosa 95 76 95 75 / 10 10 20 30 Calera 97 75 96 74 / 10 10 30 30 Auburn 90 75 90 75 / 20 20 50 20 Montgomery 93 75 93 75 / 20 20 40 10 Troy 90 73 90 74 / 40 20 50 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar- Marion-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.