textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2026

- Fire Weather: There is a low to medium fire weather risk this afternoon and Thursday due to dry fuels and limited moisture.

- Halloween Evening: Rain chances will increase into the weekend. Whether the rainiest weather holds off until after trick-or-treat hours is unclear at this time, but you should at least plan for rainy impacts.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon reveals an upper level ridge breaking down across the Southeast as a shortwave lifts across the Northern Plains, leading to a west-southwest flow aloft as we head into the weekend. Over the next couple of days, Tropical Storm Vance will move inland over the west coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with this system will spread over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, eventually across the Plains and into the Southeast by the weekend. We will see rain chances return to Central Alabama over the weekend as the remnants of Vance pass near the region. Our greatest rain chances look to hold off until Saturday evening, lingering through Sunday morning. There remains some uncertainty as to the exact time of the onset of precipitation, leading to a low chance for some damp trick-or-treating.

We will have a dry start to the next work week as weak ridging builds in. We will need to keep a close eye on the upper level pattern towards the middle of next week. Latest trends hint at additional chances for showers and storms by the middle of the week. Details will be worked out over the coming days.

Otherwise, light winds and clear skies will promote patchy river fog during the overnight and early morning hours for the next couple of days.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2026

VFR conditions and easterly winds from 5-8 knots will persist throughout this TAF cycle.

Note: This is the last issuance of the KASN Talladega TAF.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Regional high pressure will carry our rain-free weather through Friday. MinRHs will be in the 30-35% range this afternoon. A gradual increase in moisture will push RHs up into the 35-45% range Thursday and Friday. A surge of deeper moisture will spread across the region over the weekend, leading to increased rain chances Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 45 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 47 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 47 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 49 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 53 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 49 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 50 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.