textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the northern half of Alabama Saturday. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools ahead of an incoming boundary.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for today, as the stalled frontal boundary slowly starts to lift north. This retrograding is ahead of a deep trough and low pressure slated to move into the region via the Midwest over the weekend. As this trough begins to move into the region on Saturday, it will be met with an incredibly moist airmass, with PWAT values over 2 inches in many locations. Depending on how progressive this trough is, periods of heavy rainfall should remain in the forecast through Sunday, with multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms anticipated. Portions of the region are also highlighted in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday, with damaging winds being the primary threat with any strong to severe activity.

By Monday, this trough should become closed up from the main flow across southern Canada, meandering across the eastern part of the country into the middle of the weekend. This will keep higher rain chances in the forecast given the increased forcing. With that being said, this trough should dissipate by Thursday under a building ridge to our west. This will allow for afternoon highs to begin climbing once again, right back into the low and mid-90s headed into next weekend.

/44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

VFR conditions expected through much of the day today with clouds building in from the southwest through the afternoon and evening. The stalled frontal boundary draped across Central Alabama will be the focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, so I've continued with Prob30s for later this afternoon for MGM, TCL, and AUO. As we approach 06z, the warm/moist airmass will advect in from the southwest bringing lower CIGs to the area for the later portions of this TAF period. MGM will likely be the first site to see the lower CIGs at around 06z, followed by TCL, AUO, EET, and BHM before 12z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help keep fire weather concerns in check for the week. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 73 88 71 / 0 30 90 80 Anniston 91 72 87 72 / 0 20 90 80 Birmingham 93 74 89 72 / 10 40 80 80 Tuscaloosa 93 74 91 72 / 40 40 60 60 Calera 94 73 89 72 / 20 30 80 70 Auburn 90 74 83 73 / 10 20 90 70 Montgomery 93 74 89 73 / 40 30 80 60 Troy 92 72 86 72 / 50 40 90 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.