textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1104 PM CST MON NOV 2 2026

- Mid Week Focus: Keep an eye on Tuesday evening into Wednesday as rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up. The severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could lead to some localized flooding.

- Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of this week. A passing front will drop our temperatures, leaving us with lows in the 40s and maybe some mid to upper 30s for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1104 PM CST MON NOV 2 2026

We have a break in the rain activity for the rest of tonight into Tuesday morning. By Tuesday, our next system approaches as a low moves out of ERN Kansas across to Iowa and Michigan by Thursday. As it does so, it will drag a front across much of the Gulf Coast States including Central Alabama. We could see scattered thunderstorms with enough forcing from the front, along with heavy rain at times. Latest guidance looks to weaken storms as they get closer Tuesday night with some of the flow potentially slow at times with the lower stream system. This is pointing more toward heavy rain/localized flooding potential for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning than severe, more so in the NW half of Central Alabama. Behind it for Thursday, there will be a small chance for some wrap-around showers behind the front as the upper trough pushes across Eastern Conus. Then on Friday a second front, with a small to medium chance for a few showers with it, is expected to bring down a much colder Canadian air mass to lower the temperatures back into the 40s (and maybe some mid to upper 30s) for lows for Central Alabama for this weekend into the first part of next week. There is a medium chance that we could see our first frost by Monday night.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST MON NOV 2 2026

Clouds and low CIGs will generally increase in coverage overnight, as increased moisture streams into the region. All terminals will carry MVFR CIGs through 03/18z, before briefly mixing back out into VFR category. From here, rain chances will increase past 03/22z, with all terminals carrying SHRA into the next TAF period. Periods of thunder are expected tomorrow, but confidence is currently not high enough to pinpoint the highest thunder probabilities, so TS has not been introduced in any FM groups at this time.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. We will remain dry through Tuesday morning. Rain returns to the forecast Tuesday afternoon. East to southeast winds with gusts near 20 MPH at times Tuesday, generally during the afternoon hours, will become southeast to southwest on Wednesday as our front moves into the area. Drier and cooler conditions return late this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 78 62 76 / 0 20 80 100 Anniston 60 77 65 76 / 0 10 70 100 Birmingham 61 77 64 75 / 0 30 80 90 Tuscaloosa 63 79 64 76 / 0 30 90 90 Calera 62 77 65 75 / 0 30 80 100 Auburn 62 77 66 76 / 0 20 50 90 Montgomery 63 81 65 80 / 10 30 70 90 Troy 61 80 64 78 / 0 30 50 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.