textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 508 AM CST THU NOV 12 2026

- Freezing Temperatures: A strong cold front Thursday night will usher in gusty winds and much colder air, leading to widespread frost/freezing conditions through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1121 PM CST WED NOV 11 2026

The first, weaker cold front is slowly making its way through the region, as a very deep trough continues to build over the Midwest. The second, more powerful cold front will work through the region Thursday night, and into Friday morning. This is where the swing in temperatures will first be noticed, as highs on Friday will generally range in the low to upper-50s. By Friday night however, widespread radiational cooling is anticipated under calm winds, resulting in widespread frost/freeze conditions across the state. This will likely end the growing season in many of our northern zones, where lows are expected to fall into the upper-20s. Here is where temperatures should remain through the weekend, with widespread frost expected each morning. Temperatures should slightly rebound into the start of the new workweek, but only a few degrees in most locations, with widespread frost remaining in the forecast into the middle of next week.

While these cold conditions will be the main weather story for most of the next seven days, low rain chances may return to the forecast Monday into Tuesday. Here, a weak shortwave will develop along the coast and move east, resulting in cold rain in some of our southern zones. Confidence in this scenario is currently low, as the placement and trajectory of this shortwave remains in question.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST THU NOV 12 2026

Where winds have become calm ahead of a front moving across central Alabama this morning, some river and lake fog is occurring. This has recently been observed at TCL (MVFR), so carried a TEMPO through 14z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail today. Winds will become northwest, with daytime mixing aiding in speeds around 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots from ~15z to sunset.

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FIRE WEATHER

A cold front moves through tonight with just a few light rain showers. RH values will be in the 30 to 40 percent range tomorrow afternoon, but northwesterly 20ft wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph will result in some elevated fire weather concerns. A secondary dry cold front moves through Thursday night, resulting in RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range again on Friday afternoon with 20ft winds gusting up to around 17 mph. RH values will be in the 28 to 35 percent range over the weekend, but winds will be lighter.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 65 32 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 66 36 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 65 35 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 68 36 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 66 37 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 68 40 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 71 39 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 70 38 58 33 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.