textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026

- A cold front will bring limited rain, generally less than a half-inch, Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon, providing minimal relief for the ongoing drought.

- Sunday temperatures will drop 15-20 degrees, with highs in the upper-60s to low-70s, before a gradual rebound to the low-80s by Wednesday.

- Critically dry fuels, strong winds, and low Minimum Relative Humidity behind the front will keep fire weather conditions elevated through next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026

Look for quiet weather, but an overall slow warming trend over the couple of days. Surface ridging is present across much of ERN Conus with a center situated from KY/VA to Quebec. The NRN half of Conus' ridging will be pinched by a low pressure system on Tue moving NEWD out of the Upper Plains into the Great Lakes with ridging sliding off the Atlantic Coast and extending back into the Deep South. In the upper levels, look for a weak disturbance to move through the NW flow Tue into Wed. However, with ridging at the surface and limited overall moisture, only some high cloudiness is anticipated with this initial wave.

Better moisture will become available as we head into the weekend with more onshore flow, even warmer temperatures, and continued upper impulses moving across the Deep South. Look for us to transition into a wetter pattern for Fri and through the remainder of the extended as another surface boundary moves into the region. It will likely stall across C AL before moving back NWD with our upper flow across AL becoming more zonal than NW for Sat/Sun.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026

Fair weather is expected over the next few days as a 500 mb ridge axis approaches from the central U.S. Just ahead of it, a shortwave trough is shown to skirt across the Gulf Coast with just enough moisture to bring an increase in mid- to high-level cloudiness to Central Alabama from mid Tuesday into Wednesday.

The sub-tropical jet stream is forecast to become more active across our area from Saturday into next week, offering periodic showers and thunderstorms. The pattern should favor dew points rising into at least the low 60s, yielding weak to perhaps moderate instability + bouts of increased/veering flow aloft per GFS/ECMWF ensembles. Currently, the primary signal for severe thunderstorms is to our west; however, slight changes to the mid/upper level configuration and storm track could involve our area in some fashion at some point. This is just something to monitor. In the least, we'll have a few opportunities for much-needed rain.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026

VFR conditions and light winds prevail through this TAF cycle. There is a low chance for brief river fog near TCL. With low confidence, opted to not include it in the TAFs at this time.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

99/TC

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Afternoon humidity levels will be close to critical values over the next few days. Fortunately, winds are forecast to remain in check. Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms start heading into this weekend and look to persist into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 81 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 82 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 82 55 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 83 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 81 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 83 57 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 82 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.