textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into next week. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 126 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

Showers and storms are slowly working their way northeast this morning, as the main MCV we'll be watching this afternoon moves into the Mississippi Delta region. This remnant MCV will be the catalyst for more organized thunderstorm activity this afternoon, with some of this activity expected to linger into the overnight hours. Given plenty of instability, a few strong to severe storms will be possible today, with damaging winds being the main threat. Thankfully, these severe probabilities are low, and widespread severe weather is not expected.

By tomorrow, a weak trough will have worked into the region via the Midwest/Great Lakes, allowing for more organized thunderstorm activity to remain in the forecast. With that being said, the best forcing will likely be along and north of I-20, so this is where the best rain coverage is anticipated. This trough will become partially disconnected from the main flow aloft during this time, forming a pseudo "closed low" that will more or less meander across the Tennessee River Valley into Thursday. Rain probabilities will be on the lower end of the spectrum come Wednesday and Thursday, as we'll be well south of the best forcing, but that won't exclude us from scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms into the weekend.

As we head into the weekend, it appears like another weak trough could sneak its way into the area, as another system works through the Midwest once again. The overall confidence with this weekend trough currently remains low, with the main implications here being organized rain chances, or more scattered rain chances if the trough doesn't materialize. Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures will range in the upper-80s and low-90s given the increased cloud cover, so no additional heat headlines are expected at this time.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

More organized thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow, as multiple features skirt the region over the next 48-hours. Because of that, terminals will carry some form of TSRA today during the afternoon hours, most likely PROB30 groups. Past 06/06z, most terminals will see reduced VIS and CIG's due to lingering low clouds, with widespread IFR/MVFR conditions expected through 06/16z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions will continue into next week, with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 89 71 90 / 30 70 30 30 Anniston 72 89 72 89 / 30 70 40 30 Birmingham 74 90 73 90 / 30 70 40 30 Tuscaloosa 74 90 73 91 / 30 50 30 20 Calera 73 92 72 93 / 30 60 40 30 Auburn 73 89 73 89 / 30 60 40 30 Montgomery 74 91 74 91 / 40 50 40 30 Troy 73 90 73 90 / 30 50 40 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.