textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms is in place for Sunday. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats locally. - Well above normal temperatures are expected into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026

This evening, surface ridging has retreated EWD off the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a surface low and associated front has worked its way EWD across OK and will continue toward N MS by Sun morning, later dragging a front across AL during the day Sun. Our airmass has been very dry and will take some modification. Dew points across the area range from the lower 30s NE to the middle 40s SW. Cloud decks are slowly lowering as overall moisture is slowly increasing from the top down. However, ATTM we don't have much precip making it to the ground just let. That will change over the next few hours. In the upper levels, the low/shortwave that we have watched move across the WRN US is now in E TX and will continue to the EWD across LA/MS in the pre-dawn and into AL during the day Sun.

Rain showers along with a few thunderstorms will occur with this system. Activity with this system should decrease in intensity as it approaches us. In addition, we will have only limited instability when it gets here. There will be only a meager window for a few thunderstorms and some gusts at times in the way of severe. The best chances for beneficial rain will be during the day on Sun, in particular Sun morning. Guidance continues to show around 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain across C AL before the system moves out. A few showers may linger behind the front late Sun until the upper system is completely through.

This front is not expected to have a big cold surge behind it as the main energy is W to E, but it will bring drier weather Monday and on into mid week. Will look for NW upper flow behind the front on Mon with the flow turning zonal to WSW for the latter half of the week as upper ridging becomes elongated across Mexico into the Gulf. Spotty rain chances return for Wed as moisture slowly increases, with better chances by Thu into Fri ahead of another front. Well above normal temps will be present for the upcoming week.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1227 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight, as a closed low finally begins to trek east. Severe weather chances with this initial round of storms looks lower, as storms will be experiencing a weakening trend during this time. The environment over the region during this time will be nearly void of any instability, aiding in the lack of severe potential. However, as the low itself begins to work into the region by mid-morning, a narrow corridor will present itself for an isolated strong to severe storm. Thus, the SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Thankfully, widespread severe weather is not expected, and damaging winds and hail are the main threats during this small window.

Dry conditions will remain in the forecast through Tuesday, with very little changes in temperatures to speak of. By Wednesday however, the upper-level pattern will begin to shift more towards the SW, allowing for more scattered rain chances to return to the forecast with increasing moisture. Temperatures during this time will begin to increase as well, with well above average temperatures remaining in the forecast into next weekend. There is still plenty of uncertainty here, but long-range guidance is starting to highlight another deep system moving through the area this time next weekend. While additional severe weather chances remain to be seen, this deep system would drop temperatures way back down to a seasonal feel.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026

Expect clouds to continue to thicken and lower through the night with increasing chances for showers becoming high enough to include at all terminals generally between 06z and 09z. Some TS potential will exist for MGM and AUO to include with the overall window from around 10z to 18z. Low-level winds will increase through the night from the southeast and become more southerly into Sunday morning with speeds from 12-24 kt. Expect low clouds to persist through the rest of the day Sunday while shower chances linger after the heavier activity pushes through the area after midday.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances will be elevated Sunday, leading to higher minimum relative humidity values Sunday and Monday. In fact, it looks like minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50 percent for much of the upcoming week, as deeper moisture begins to work back into the region under sustained southwest flow. Rain chances return to the forecast by the middle of next week, with fire weather concerns remaining very low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 47 65 44 69 / 80 100 20 0 Anniston 50 66 44 70 / 80 100 20 0 Birmingham 53 66 47 69 / 90 100 20 0 Tuscaloosa 54 68 46 70 / 90 90 10 0 Calera 51 69 45 71 / 90 100 20 0 Auburn 52 67 48 69 / 80 90 30 0 Montgomery 54 71 50 69 / 90 100 30 0 Troy 53 72 51 70 / 80 100 30 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.