textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast by Friday, with the best chances Saturday through Sunday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher possible.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

Moisture will continue to stream into the region via a stiff south wind from the Gulf, with dry conditions persisting the next few days. This gradual moisture return into the region will be the precursor to our upcoming rain event this weekend, as PWAT values still need to climb in order to meet our current QPF forecast. The other caveat here will be the placement of the stalled front through the weekend, with slight deviations resulting in substantial changes in overall rainfall amounts.

At this time, confidence is still medium that the approaching cold front will stall in a very favorable location north of the state, resulting in widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall through Monday. The bulk of this rainfall will fall between Saturday and Sunday, when a weak shortwave moves inland from the Gulf Coast. Given the moderate to heavy nature of this anticipated rain, locally higher amounts above two inches are very likely, with current probabilities of exceedance near 50% for most of the state. As previously mentioned though, a good chunk of these higher rainfall amounts depend on location of the stalled cold front. By Monday, a deepening trough over eastern Canada will kick this cold front back into gear, pushing it through the region by early Tuesday morning. This will allow cool, dry air back into the area, ushering in another period of much more seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

/44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

As high pressure slides eastward, southeasterly winds will increase slightly to around 7-9 kts this afternoon. Moisture will also begin to increase, but VFR conditions will continue. There will be a low (20%) chance of a shower in the vicinity of MGM this afternoon, but this probability is too low to mention in the TAF.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will persist through Thursday with light winds. This afternoon minimum RH values are in the upper 20s through the 30s percent range across the region. Humidity values will increase on Thursday with values in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with 50s and low 60s on Friday as southerly flow returns. Rain chances return late this week and increase over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 66 92 68 / 0 0 30 30 Anniston 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 30 40 Birmingham 91 69 91 70 / 0 0 30 40 Tuscaloosa 94 69 94 69 / 10 10 30 30 Calera 92 68 91 69 / 0 0 30 40 Auburn 88 69 88 69 / 0 0 40 40 Montgomery 92 70 91 70 / 10 10 50 40 Troy 90 69 89 69 / 20 10 60 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.