textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1255 PM CST WED NOV 11 2026

- A system will bring a chance for a few light rain showers today into early Thursday morning.

- A strong cold front on Thursday will usher in gusty winds and much colder air, leading to a widespread frost and freeze heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 PM CST WED NOV 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows several disturbances moving through the area today. A southern stream shortwave/speed max is producing an area of virga and very light rain across our southern counties. While most METARs are only reporting a trace of precipitation, a couple spots have recorded 0.01". Therefore, some adjustments to PoPs were made, and highs were also lowered in the southeast counties. Additional weak disturbances are causing a few sprinkles and very light rain showers in our northern counties, while a stronger northern stream shortwave is moving through the Midwest. The latter feature is associated with a strong cold front currently moving into the Ozarks. The HRRR and REFS members indicate some scattered shower development along the front as it moves into the area this evening. Forecast soundings indicate meager low-level moisture with dew points in the 50s, and a warm layer aloft, which should inhibit too much vertical development. REFS thunder probabilities are 10 percent or less, so will not include any thunder mention in the official forecast.

A deep trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS through Saturday, with strong cold air advection across Central Alabama. A secondary cold front associated with another vort max moving through the trough will move into the area Thursday night. This could squeeze a couple more very light showers or sprinkles, which will need to be monitored for future PoP updates. Winds will stay up a bit behind the front Thursday night. This should keep low temperatures in our far NW counties just above freezing, and could be a limiting factor for frost formation. Will hold off on any frost/freeze products for Thursday night for now. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be similar to wintertime normals in the 50s. Chances for the first freeze of the season remain high for Friday night and Saturday night, with the extent and magnitude dependent on winds/decoupling. This should end the growing season for some of the northern counties at minimum.

A southern stream shortwave trough will undercut the amplified ridge over the central CONUS over the weekend, and eventually move through the area Monday. This will induce a weak wave of low pressure to our south. This may result in some cold rain for parts of the area, but PoPs remain in the 20-30% range with uncertainty in the northward extent of any rain.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST WED NOV 11 2026

An upper-level disturbance is causing some virga and patchy high- based light rain currently. Aviation impacts through the afternoon will be minimal, but a VCSH was mentioned at MGM. A cold front moves through tonight with a 20-30% chance of SHRA near the northern terminals, which will be handled with a PROB30 mention. REFS probabilities for any MVFR cigs along the front are very low (<10%); therefore, VFR conditions are expected through the period. WSW winds around 5-8kts this afternoon will become northwesterly at 8 to 12 kts tomorrow morning.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front moves through tonight with just a few light rain showers. RH values will be in the 30 to 40 percent range tomorrow afternoon, but northwesterly 20ft wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph will result in some elevated fire weather concerns. A secondary dry cold front moves through Thursday night, resulting in RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range again on Friday afternoon with 20ft winds gusting up to around 17 mph. RH values will be in the 28 to 35 percent range over the weekend, but winds will be lighter.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 49 65 35 55 / 30 0 0 0 Anniston 51 65 37 55 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 65 37 55 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 49 67 37 57 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 51 65 38 55 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 54 68 40 57 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 55 71 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 54 70 40 59 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.