textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026

- Medium to high (30-80%) chances for showers tonight into Wednesday, highest chances north.

- Temperatures have trended a little cooler behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday.

- High (80-90%) rain chances are expected over the weekend, especially late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a low probability at this time for thunderstorms, at least for the southern half of the area.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 127 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026

This Afternoon through Friday:

Persistent low clouds and fog this morning have slowed down temperatures so far, but with clearing skies taking place (other than high clouds) they have now started to rise. A southern stream shortwave currently near the Texas Big Bend region will move quickly eastward along the Gulf Coast region tonight and tomorrow morning. Mid-levels quickly moisten this evening, while low-levels will take a while longer to moisten. Mid-level moisture and lift should be sufficient for at least sprinkles/light rain to move in this evening. A cold front currently over the Ozarks will eventually reach our northwestern counties early tomorrow morning, with showers increasing in coverage along it. Forecast soundings do show some MUCAPE but mostly below the mixed phase region. A nonzero risk for thunder will exist, but with HREF probabilities remaining 10 percent or less will not include thunder in the forecast at this time. Scattered showers will continue along the front through the day tomorrow, but with mid- level subsidence/drying behind the shortwave they will be decreasing in coverage.

The front has trended a bit stronger. Have trended down high temperatures for tomorrow especially across the north but they will probably need to be lowered further due to post-frontal cloudiness/CAA. Lows will drop to near freezing Wednesday night in our far northern counties. Similarly, high temperatures for Thursday have trended downward with the front remaining stalled off the Gulf Coast. Small rain chances return Friday with a few disturbances in northwest flow aloft and low-level WAA.

Saturday through Monday:

The next southern stream shortwave will eject eastward across the southern CONUS over the weekend. Some guidance keeps it as an open low-amplitude trough while other close it off into an upper low. Some frontogenesis-induced rain may start off across our northern counties Saturday, followed by a potential QLCS moving in late Saturday night/Sunday morning. The low latitude/southern track of the shortwave and surface low shown by the majority of ensemble clusters/deterministic models typically suggests surface- based instability remaining confined closer to the coast, though there is a smaller minority of ensemble clusters and the AI-GFS that show a track a bit further to the north. While we continue to monitor, probabilities for severe weather remain fairly low at this time, with instability mostly showing up behind the convection near the upper low center. Temperatures look to remain above normal behind the system on Monday.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026

Low clouds and fog have been persistent this morning, but satellite is finally showing rapid clearing, with VFR conditions expected areawide by 19z. Light rain moves in from the west this evening, but won't have much of an impact on visibilities initially. A band of slightly heavier showers along a cold front will approach the northern terminals by early tomorrow morning, but will become more scattered in nature through the morning. Cigs will lower back down to MVFR-IFR late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Showers move through the area tonight and tomorrow along a cold front with 20ft winds becoming northerly tomorrow. The front has trended stronger resulting in drier air moving in. RH values may drop below 25 percent for a few hours Thursday afternoon but winds will be light. Another round of rain an perhaps storms will move through over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 55 62 33 60 / 80 80 0 0 Anniston 56 64 36 62 / 60 70 0 0 Birmingham 57 63 38 62 / 60 60 0 0 Tuscaloosa 58 66 38 65 / 50 40 0 0 Calera 56 66 38 64 / 60 40 0 0 Auburn 56 68 41 64 / 50 40 10 0 Montgomery 58 73 42 66 / 40 40 10 0 Troy 58 74 44 68 / 30 30 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.