textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026

- Halloween evening: Some may see raindrops while others stay dry. Keep your enchanted rain cloaks and umbrellas on standby just in case a passing shower tries to dampen your spirits!

- Midweek rain: Another weather system will move into the area around the middle of next week, bringing increased chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 120 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026

This weekend: With further vertical moistening and the presence of a few shortwave trough axes, precipitation chances are favored to gradually increase. Spotty activity is forecast during trick- or-treat, leading up to a wetter overnight into Sunday. A majority of this activity will be in the form of showers due to low-level stability; however, a couple rumbles of thunder may occur given instances of weak MU-CAPE. Recent runs of various models and the 12z ensemble show the potential for pockets of moderate to heavy rain northwest of the 59/20 Sunday morning, associated with a mid-level lobe of energy.

Next week: Much of the upcoming workweek will feature increased cloudiness as additional plumes of moisture aloft come our way from the west. Monday and Tuesday look to be free from rain as a shortwave ridge moves across the Gulf region. Our next system currently exists as a pair of troughs and jet streaks just off the west coast of the U.S. and Mexico. Models have been consistent in showing these troughs interacting/phasing as they track from the Desert Southwest to the Plains and arrive to our area on Wednesday, though there's variability in the configuration and intensity of the system by that point. At this time, the various model solutions, along with ML/AI guidance, don't seem to point toward a robust severe thunderstorm threat given a few sizable limiting factors; however, given background shear and some instability, a low severe thunderstorm risk may materialize. Heavy rain may also occur with this system for parts of the region. We'll narrow down each as we get closer.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026

A VFR, multi-layered cloud deck is present across central Alabama. While spotty showers will be around afternoon into evening, the brunt of activity is forecast later tonight into Sunday and is likely to affect several terminals as ceilings lower to MVFR. Easterly winds will gust between 15-20 knots at times.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. Rainy weather is forecast to occur tonight into Sunday and again on Wednesday. Easterly winds will gust near 20 mph this weekend, becoming southeasterly on Monday with similar gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 52 66 52 74 / 60 70 30 10 Anniston 55 67 54 74 / 40 50 30 0 Birmingham 57 67 56 74 / 60 80 30 10 Tuscaloosa 58 70 58 76 / 60 80 30 10 Calera 58 68 57 74 / 50 80 30 10 Auburn 60 69 57 75 / 20 50 30 0 Montgomery 62 73 60 77 / 30 60 30 0 Troy 62 72 59 77 / 20 50 30 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.