textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026

- Mainly dry conditions expected this week with seasonable temperatures through Thursday.

- Fire danger will be somewhat elevated the next couple of days due to recent dryness, lower RH values, and an increase in winds, but sub-critical conditions are expected.

- Considerable drought conditions are expected to worsen through early next week with a high chance for much warmer temperatures to develop.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

Satellite is indicating a sharp clearing line of high cloudiness as upper moisture pushes EWD tonight. The sky should be clear across C AL by morning as an upper shortwave swings EWD and away from AL. In the lower levels, surface ridging is present across the SE US, with additional reinforcement expected as another front heads our way on Tue as a ridge center slides SEWD out of C Canada/the Dakotas, across the Great Lakes, and toward New England on Tue. This will reinforce our dry airmass, and no precip is expected as it sinks SWD into N AL. It will likely stall and fizzle out as our upper flow becomes very weak Tue. It should be enough to stall our return to highs in the 80s for a couple of days. Another upper shortwave comes across Wed night into Thu. However, it will be weak. Look for mainly high cloudiness with it. As of now we have only a very low rain chances in the far SE counties for Wed night. With our very limited available moisture to greet this upper wave, it will be difficult to get any measurable precip out of this system unfortunately. For Fri onward, look for temperatures to creep back upward a little each day as our airmass moderates with rain free conditions on tap through the weekend and into next Monday.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

High cirrus clouds continue to stream northeastward over the deep south as a shortwave moves eastward along the northern Gulf Coast. All rain will be well to to south as a result, with a broad surface ridge extending eastward to the southern Appalachians. Northerly to northeasterly pressure gradient winds will continue through this afternoon prevailing between 5 and 10mph with a few gusts above 15mph at times. The cool and dry northerly flow will allow for dewpoints to mix down into the low and mid 30s by this afternoon as highs top out near 70 degrees. As was discussed overnight, fire weather conditions will certainly be on the forefront over the next seven days with very little to no rainfall expected. Another dry surface front is expected to move in from the northeast during the day on Tuesday, reinforcing the dry airmass across the southeast. If winds are any higher than currently forecast, we'll be close to critical fire weather conditions both on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Even though we had measurable rain over the weekend, fuels remain quite dry due to the considerable drought conditions.

By the middle of the week, a strong 1039mb surface ridge centered over New England will keep surface winds out of the east and maintain our cool and dry regime. As the 500mb ridge becomes centered over the western Atlantic by the end of the week, we'll see additional moisture streaming in aloft with a weak shortwave. With the CAD surface boundary still in place to our south, guidance is hinting at a very small chance for a few showers developing mainly along and south of the I-85 corridor Wednesday night through early Thursday morning, but most folks should remain dry. Global guidance continues to trend toward upper level height rises by the end of the week. A 588-591 decameter ridge is advertised to develop over the southwestern Gulf and build northeastward by the end of the weekend and into next week. Highs in the mid 80s certainly appear likely at this point by Sunday and Monday of next week with zero indications of any rainfall.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected for much of this week with high pressure dominating the pattern. RH values will continue to drop into the 25-35 percent range for this Tuesday afternoon with 20ft wind gusts up to 17 mph out of the northeast. RH values increase slightly to the 30-35 percent range Wednesday afternoon, while easterly 20ft wind gusts increase to around 15-20 mph, highest gusts southeast. Although conditions are still expected to remain below red flag thresholds, ongoing drought conditions will keep fuels very dry. Any fires could spread quickly due to the prevailing breezy conditions that are forecast. Conditions will be closely monitored over the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 45 72 43 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 74 47 72 45 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 75 51 74 49 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 76 50 76 49 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 76 50 75 47 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 75 52 70 48 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 78 50 74 48 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 77 50 72 48 / 0 0 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.