textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 629 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026

- Highest rain chances will remain across southeast Central Alabama through Sunday, with passing showers and thunderstorms expected to develop each afternoon.

- A hotter and drier pattern is forecast to return across the Deep South by the middle and end of next week. Temperatures slowly return to the mid 90s by Wednesday and perhaps dangerous levels once again by Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026

The early part of the forecast will be controlled by an upper level shortwave trough that is drifting slowly along the gulf coast. At the surface, north winds will draw in some drier air into the northern part of the forecast area. As a result of these two features, the best chances of showers and thunderstorms over the 24 to 48 hours will be in the southern part of central Alabama, especially the southeast portion. Daily instability values will be sufficient for thunderstorms, but with little to no shear apparent, no organized severe thunderstorm areas are expected at this time -- just your standard summertime afternoon storms.

The models are in a bit of disagreement in initially handling that upper level low feature. Ultimately, a broad upper level ridge is forecast to become established early next week, with the east-west ridge axis stretching from Arkansas to the Carolinas. The upper low then gets caught up in the tropical easterlies on the south side of the high, and ends up drifting west of the Mississippi River, becoming less of a factor in our weather. The ramifications of this are twofold -- keeping daily POPs generally below climatological normals, and pushing afternoon temperatures noticeably above climatological normals. The Heat Advisories may not yet be done for this summer.

/61/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026

IFR conditions have developed at TCL, BHM, and EET mostly in the form of low stratus clouds, but low visibility has also been observed in a more sporadic nature as well. VFR conditions continue at MGM and AUO due to ongoing mid-level cloud cover. VFR conditions will return between 14z and 16z this morning as clouds and patchy fog mix out. A moderate chance for SHRA and some TSRA near MGM and AUO is forecast later this afternoon. PROB30s remain in the forecast for those terminals as a result. Winds will remain light from the north or variable through the forecast period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the next several days. Shower and storm chances will become more widespread today and Friday across the central and southeastern areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 68 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 Anniston 90 69 90 70 / 10 0 30 10 Birmingham 90 70 91 72 / 10 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 93 70 94 72 / 10 0 10 0 Calera 91 70 91 71 / 20 0 30 10 Auburn 86 71 85 72 / 50 20 40 20 Montgomery 92 72 92 72 / 50 10 40 10 Troy 88 69 88 70 / 50 20 50 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.