textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

- Medium chances for patchy fog development tonight, especially near bodies of water.

- High temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures.

- Cooler temperatures are expected by next Saturday, but how much cooler remains uncertain. Little to no precipitation is expected with this cold front.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Isaias will continue to move eastward and off the Atlantic Coast through Monday morning. Broad ridging is expected to build into the Southeastern CONUS Monday and remain over the region through at least Thursday morning. This will lead to another warming trend for Central AL with highs reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s each day Monday through Friday. A few locations may approach or exceed record highs for this time of year. I don't expect any heat-related advisory products as the drier air mass will keep heat indices fairly close to the air temperature. Overnight lows each morning will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s, making for mild Fall mornings before warming into the upper 80s by the afternoons.

The next system to watch will be a trough that will slide through the Midwest towards the end of the week and will push a cold front southward into Central AL for the weekend. Without deep moisture return ahead of this cold front, the forecast will keep this frontal passage mostly rain-free, though a few showers may end up occurring. Overall, we're not expecting a huge impact from this frontal passage next weekend aside from the cooler temperatures behind the front.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Mostly clear skies are expected to continue as low level high pressure continues to build into the region behind the departing post-tropical remnants. Winds have already begun to decrease across the area, so will keep with the trend of light to calm winds through the overnight hours. Guidance continue to show roughly 20-50% chance of visibility dropping at or below 5 miles for a few hours before sunrise. I'd continued the trend from the previous forecast of having tempo groups for 5sm between 10-14z for our typical foggy locations for EET and MGM. A notable change is dropping TCL to IFR VIS between 10-14z as guidance suggests a 40-50% of denser fog developing near the terminal. We'll have to monitor the potential for any dense valley or river fog as the night progresses. The remainder of the period should be VFR as high pressure continues to build into the region.

Note: Will continue with AMD NOT SKED at AUO due to missing observational data.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions are expected to be in place for much of the upcoming week. MinRHs will drop into the mid 30-40% range each afternoon as high temperatures reach the upper 80s with the dry air mass. However, with the center of the high overhead, we're expecting mostly light to calm winds for the next several days.

CLIMATE

Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Record High Temperatures:

October 12: KBHM: 91/1963 KEET: 86/2014 KANB: 88/1963 KTCL: 92/1963 KMGM: 91/2017

October 13: KBHM: 89/1953 KEET: 89/2017 KANB: 90/1954 KTCL: 90/1963

October 14: KBHM: 89/1984 KEET: 89/2016 KANB: 88/1975 KTCL: 90/1962 KMGM: 91/1883

October 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881

October 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 54 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 56 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 59 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 58 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 59 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 58 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 58 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.