textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026

- Periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend, with low chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026

A subtle mid-level ridge axis is centered just to our west over the Mississippi River, flanked on both sides by a large positively tilted upper-level trough over the East Coast and another upper-level trough lifting towards the Upper Plains. Despite being situated downstream of the mid-level ridge axis, Central Alabama remains under the influence of a very moist airmass, a low-level shortwave trough which is loosely associated with the broader troughing regime to our east, and a remnant surface boundary draped east to west across the region to our north. A scattering of showers have begun to develop over the last couple of hours, and like previous days, expect coverage to increase through the afternoon hours, with some thunderstorm activity in the mix as well, as temperatures warm into the mid 80s. Activity will be tropical in nature and not particularly organized, but will be capable of producing heavy downpours which could lead to isolated flooding this afternoon.

High surface pressure will build southeastward from Canada towards the Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. This will support a weak backdoor front as surface winds become easterly for areas generally east of I-65 while weak westerly winds persist to the west of I-65. A theta-e boundary looks to set up near or just east of the I-65 corridor tomorrow afternoon which could serve as a focus point for thunderstorm activity. As such, highest PoPs are focused along and surrounding the I-65 corridor.

We will be in somewhat of a transition period on Monday and Tuesday as the mid-level ridging begins to strengthen to our west while the persistent trough remains in place over the East Coast. Moisture content and PoPs will begin to drop quite a bit from what we've been experiencing the last couple of weeks as deep- layer flow becomes predominately north/northwesterly, and coverage of showers and storms will become much more isolated. We will need to keep an eye on potential MCS activity Monday afternoon/evening, but area-wide dry conditions are expected from Wednesday through the end of the week as the ridge axis looks to become the dominant feature over the region by Thursday.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026

High moisture content and a subtle low-level shortwave trough over the area will continue to support aviation impacts through this period in the form of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, and low ceilings overnight. Showers are developing, with the greatest areal coverage expected between 20-01Z before diminishing. Ceilings are gradually rising this afternoon, but expect IFR ceilings and some patchy fog to redevelop around 06Z with gradual improvement to MVFR by 15-16Z tomorrow.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the weekend across Central Alabama. This pattern will lead to high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low clouds or patchy fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 81 63 85 / 30 70 20 30 Anniston 67 80 65 85 / 40 70 20 30 Birmingham 69 84 67 87 / 30 70 20 30 Tuscaloosa 71 88 70 89 / 20 50 10 30 Calera 69 86 67 89 / 30 70 20 30 Auburn 70 81 68 87 / 40 80 30 30 Montgomery 70 85 68 88 / 30 80 30 20 Troy 69 85 68 88 / 40 80 50 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.