textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

- There is a medium to high chance that some communities across Central Alabama will see their first 90 degree day of the year by early next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the region mid to late next week. Until then, any activity will be very limited in coverage as fair weather dominates.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026

A PWAT (moisture) deficit remains in place for most of Alabama this weekend (Friday evening weather balloon from NWS Birmingham showed 0.73"); however, southerly flow induced by deepening low pressure over the central Plains and high pressure over the Atlantic should result in plumes of increased PWATs to our west and east on Sunday. Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms, isolated to scattered in coverage, are shown to develop during the afternoon along those areas of increased moisture. Given the proximity of the axis over Georgia, it's plausible that some activity clips parts of east Alabama. Otherwise, fair weather dominates.

A persistent troughing pattern is forecast over the central U.S. next week with successive shortwave troughs along its southern flank. This is likely to ease the influence of nearby high pressure enough to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid to late in the week as moisture content increases more broadly. A front is even shown to make it to our area, though it's likely to be weak given a majority of the upper- level support missing us to the north. Still, it could provide a modest enhancement to the coverage of activity.

Lastly, while forecast soundings show weak to moderate instability next week, deep-layer flow isn't all that strong (bulk shear near 25 knots); thus, an organized severe weather threat isn't apparent at this time.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours thanks to the influence of East Coast surface ridging. As a result, winds will be light and variable overnight. During the day with mixing, winds will be southerly 5-9kts. High clouds will be noted at times due to a weak upper disturbance that will move across the Deep South. However, overall moisture will be limited and no rain is anticipated.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Shower and thunderstorm chances are nil to very low through early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are then forecast mid to late in the week. Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue across Central Alabama, though the lack of low MinRH or gusty winds over the days ahead lessens bona fide fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 59 88 61 / 0 0 10 0 Anniston 84 61 87 63 / 0 0 10 0 Birmingham 85 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 84 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 86 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 86 66 88 66 / 0 0 20 10 Montgomery 87 62 88 64 / 0 0 10 0 Troy 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.