textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

- Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the week, with low chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

A somewhat consistent pattern will remain in place this weekend, allowing for continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. By tomorrow, upper-level ridging will begin to break down to our west, allowing for flow aloft to become reestablished between the low pressure to our west, and the one to our NE. This will allow for a series of shortwaves to meander across the region through the weekend, keeping rain chances in the forecast.

Over the course of the weekend, a longwave trough will start to become the dominant feature over New England, slowly dropping south across the East Coast. Dropping south with this longwave will be an elongated cold front, with the current expectation being that it will move into the area come Tuesday. The main thing to watch here is low pressure interaction, and if any kind of Fujiwhara effect takes place. The GFS is very bullish on the notion of an extended period of low pressure interaction, resulting in the trough getting stretched farther south. In turn, this would push the cold front farther south as well. That would result in slightly cooler temperatures, as well as an even greater decrease in rain chances. With that being said, rain chances look to linger to start the new workweek behind the front, mostly driven by seabreeze and diurnally driven activity.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

While low-end VFR conditions are expected for most of the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing, and expanding across the region. All terminals are carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA, with quick drops in flight categories expected with any of this activity. The rain should diminish past 08/00z, with low clouds and fog expanding across the region by 08/08z. Here, IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to linger through 08/16z.

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FIRE WEATHER

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of the week across Central Alabama. This pattern will lead to high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low clouds or fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 84 65 80 / 20 50 30 80 Anniston 67 84 66 80 / 30 50 30 90 Birmingham 68 85 67 81 / 30 40 40 80 Tuscaloosa 69 85 69 82 / 20 50 40 70 Calera 67 86 67 83 / 20 40 40 80 Auburn 68 84 68 81 / 30 40 20 80 Montgomery 68 84 68 82 / 20 30 20 80 Troy 67 84 67 83 / 30 40 20 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.