textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026

- There is a medium to high chance for severe weather Sunday night into Monday morning. There's increasing concern for widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail. - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026

BLUF: Widespread severe weather looks likely Sunday night, as a very fast line of storms moves through the region. Damaging winds are the main threat, with the tornado threat not far behind it.

In a rare instance, the SPC sent out a massive Day 3 update, bumping portions of our region into an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5), with a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) everywhere else. This large upgrade is not unwarranted, as a very deep trough and low pressure will begin working into the Midwest by Sunday afternoon. As storms become more organized along, and ahead of the cold front, this trough will pick up more and more speed. The result currently appears to be a large portion of the lower Midwest and Deep South under the threat for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes.

Locally, the current thinking is that the line of storms should begin to work into the area between 9-10 PM. These storms will be moving very fast, and the speed of these storms will no doubt influence the threat for damaging winds. When it comes to the tornado threat, this is where guidance starts to differ. Due to timing issues, and questions regarding instability, the potential tornado threat may be limited to along the main line. However, given forecast wind profiles, if any storms were to develop ahead of the line, they would almost certainly be supercellular in nature. Again, given the speed of this main line, it may not take much time at all for these storms to become undercut. Regardless, these single cell storms would pose a tornado threat as well, particularly in our SE counties. For now, the most likely scenario is embedded tornadoes along the main line of thunderstorms. With all of that being said, I don't want to downplay the damaging wind threat given the upper- level environment. This line could easily produce widespread wind damage across the region, during a time of day where most people have their guard down.

Very strong cold air advection will quickly push into the region behind the cold front, with overnight lows falling into the low to mid-20s Monday night. Most of the region looks to stay below freezing for Tuesday night as well, which will all but ensure the need for a Freeze Warning. The extent of which will likely be hammered down in the next few days. Thankfully, temperatures will quickly rebound into Thursday, with a more seasonable feel likely into next weekend.

/44/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected once more today, before MinRH values begin to increase into the afternoon hours on Sunday. Most locations should see additional rainfall overnight Sunday, with dry air working back into the area come Monday. Here, MinRH values will drop dramatically, before slowly stabilizing into Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 39 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 43 77 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 45 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 43 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 43 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 47 77 58 77 / 0 0 10 20 Montgomery 44 79 58 80 / 0 0 10 10 Troy 46 79 58 80 / 0 0 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.