textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama late this afternoon and evening. Threats include damaging wind gusts, large hail and a brief tornado. Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.

- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama late Wednesday. Threats including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.

- There is a medium to high chance for low temperatures reaching the upper 30s Friday morning when conditions may become supportive of patchy frost.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

After the slow burn-off this morning, temperatures are rapidly warming ahead of a shortwave moving through the MS Valley right now. The main line of showers and storms will slide across northern MS and work into northwestern Alabama between 5 to 6 PM and then slide south and east through the early evening. We are doing an afternoon balloon launch to see if we can better capture on the environment ahead of this complex. Models are indicating that this will be a high cape, but low shear event. More of a typical MCS event for Central Alabama. Look for the complex to really increase in forward speed this afternoon and evening. The primary threats for this will be strong winds and some large hail, however a brief spin up tornado can not be ruled out, especially on the leading edge of the line and then storm generated instability.

As the complex of showers and storms work out of the area Tuesday morning, a shortwave ridge will slide across the Gulf Coast. Thus temperatures will increase into the low 80s for a large portion of Central Alabama. Despite the increase in high pressure there still could be a few showers/storms in the north and eastern portions of the area.

For Wednesday, a southern-stream shortwave should merge with another trough just to its north. By late Wednesday, a large, sharp trough axis will be on our doorstep, allowing for a large line of showers and thunderstorms. The models continue to show a slower trend, with it leaning toward generally a night-time event for Central Alabama. Shear profiles and weak, but sufficient, instability will offer a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. While this activity will be progressive, high rainfall rates could cause brief, minor flooding.

A brief dip in temperatures follows Wednesday's storm system. The coldest period looks to be Friday morning. Guidance has a medium to high chance for low temperatures slipping into the 30s for parts of Central Alabama. Forecast winds and relative humidity suggest patchy frost could be in the cards barring any changes. Calmer weather conditions are forecast for Saturday and Sunday with a return to seasonably warm conditions.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

The next 6 hours should be good in terms of flight conditions. Still a few pockets of MVFR, but VFR overall. The big story will unfold late this afternoon into tonight as a complex of storms, currently moving closer to the MS River, will slide into the area from the west. Strong to severe storms will be possible at the northern sites, from 23z to 5z. Included tempo for winds and storms at TCL/BHM and EET. Continued with prob30 for the southern sites from 3 to 9z. Confidence on major impacts are lower across MGM and AUO.

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FIRE WEATHER

There are no low RH concerns over the next few days. It wont be until after Wednesday's strong front that lower dew points return and promote lower afternoon MinRHs (Thu-Sat in the 30% range). Winds will be southerly between 5-10 mph on Tuesday, and southerly around 10-15 mph on Wednesday (shifting to the northwest overnight). Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast for late afternoon through tonight, some of which may be severe with strong wind gusts and large hail. Tuesday is looking quieter and seasonably warm. A line of showers and thunderstorms is likely late Wednesday afternoon to night, some of which may be severe. A period of rain-free weather is forecast late week into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 59 79 61 82 / 80 30 10 10 Anniston 61 80 62 83 / 80 20 10 10 Birmingham 63 80 65 82 / 80 20 10 20 Tuscaloosa 63 83 64 84 / 60 10 10 20 Calera 63 82 63 84 / 70 10 10 10 Auburn 63 82 63 83 / 70 20 10 0 Montgomery 63 84 64 85 / 40 10 10 10 Troy 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.