textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1131 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and persist into the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

Rain will continue to gradually clear the region overnight, as the cold front keeps its southern track. This will result in mostly dry conditions across the state beginning today, sans a few remaining showers along I-85. These dry conditions are expected for most of the upcoming week, with the cold front quickly retrograding back north on Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to slightly rebound, with highs settling into the low to mid-80s. Thankfully, overnight lows will still fall to a seasonable feel, with cooler air filtering into the region via the Appalachian Mountains into Friday.

The forecast for much of the workweek will remain in this steady state, before conditions break down into the weekend. Long range guidance is already in pretty good agreement regarding some kind of shift in the synoptic pattern by Friday. Some guidance is far more aggressive than others, but the general consensus is a weak low pressure forming over central Texas, interacting with disturbances in the Gulf. This would usher in additional Gulf moisture, increasing rain chances as these disturbances move inland. While the signal is here regarding some kind of pattern breakdown, confidence on the exact outcome is low given the wide spread in current outcomes.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

The previously stalled cold front continues to slowly drop south and east, with widespread rainfall along and ahead of it. All terminals will carry RA through 05/12z, with CIGs varying between IFR and MVFR through 05/16z. Thankfully, conditions will begin to mix around here, with CIGs gradually returning to VFR category by 05/22z

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FIRE WEATHER

Light to moderate rain will be possible through this evening across much of the area. By late tonight into Monday the focus shifts south while the north dries out. Drier and cooler air returns on Tuesday and persists through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 64 82 57 82 / 50 0 0 0 Anniston 66 82 60 82 / 60 10 0 0 Birmingham 66 82 61 83 / 60 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 66 86 63 88 / 60 10 0 0 Calera 67 82 63 83 / 60 20 0 0 Auburn 67 78 64 79 / 80 20 10 0 Montgomery 68 81 65 82 / 80 30 10 0 Troy 66 79 63 80 / 90 40 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.