textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026

- Medium to high chance of visibilities less than 1 mile late tonight through mid morning Sunday across the southeastern portions of Central Alabama. - A dry and above normal temperature pattern will continue through rest of this weekend and into mid week.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1043 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026

We currently have a clear satellite picture across C AL. However, that is expected to change over the late night/pre-dawn hours. Thin low level moisture is expected to be favorable for another night of low stratus and dense fog across the SE counties of C AL. Have gone ahead and issued a dense fog advisory for 3am through 9am to account for a similar scenario/airmass as we had this past morning (Sat). Otherwise, look for generally dry and rainfree conditions through Wed. Weak surface ridging will be in place across the Deep South through Sunday as a larger and stronger ridge will traverse across the Great Lakes through New England through Mon and then push EWD into the Atlantic. This will result in our flow turning to SEWD into AL on Mon. Returning onshore SE flow will allow warm low level moisture to increase slowly for the first half of the week.

In the upper levels, we start off with NW flow tonight that transitions to WSW/to a somewhat zonal flow for Sun into the first half of the week. A shortwave will move EWD off the lee of the Rockies Tue into Wed and across the Central Plains. As it does so on Wed, our upper flow into AL will become SW. By Thu, the better energy will be closer to the main shortwave over IA/MO/IL, but we should have enough moisture to have a low to moderate chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with ripples through the SW flow. This as well as perturbations from around a larger deepening low over the SW US into the Deep South will keep pops off/on into next weekend and the end of the extended.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026

Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave trough pulling off the southeast coast as weak ridging begins to build into the region. Much drier air is in place with GOES TPW imagery picking up PWATs generally from 0.3-0.5". A thin layer of low level moisture beneath the drier air led to some stubborn dense fog this morning. Another round of potentially dense fog is expected tonight over many of the same locations. HREF guidance suggests a ~70% chance of vis less than 1 mile. Latest RAP/NAM guidance also supports this with condensation pressure deficits from 1-5mb with dewpoint depressions less than 1 degree. Otherwise, look for warming temps and rain-free conditions through the remainder of the weekend.

We look to remain dry through the middle of next week. A few upper level impulses attempt to head our way but are steered away by mid level ridging in place. A stronger wave ejects out of the Plains by Thursday which will bring a 20-30% chance of rain back into the forecast.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026

Fog will continue to be variable and tricky at KAUO and KMGM through 13-14z. It is unclear if IFR conditions will prevail, so only a tempo was included for IFR visibility. VFR coditions should resume after 14z. KBHM, KEET, and KTCL will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

For this Sunday and Monday, min RH values are forecast to fall into the 30-40% range each afternoon with little to no chance for any rainfall. Min RH values increase some into the 40-50% range for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances returning by Thursday. Soil and fuel moistures will continue to drop as afternoon temperatures rise into the 70s and perhaps into the 80s by the midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 76 49 75 52 / 0 10 0 0 Anniston 78 51 75 53 / 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 78 54 76 56 / 0 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 79 53 79 55 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 79 52 79 54 / 0 10 0 0 Auburn 76 53 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 78 50 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 78 50 78 55 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.