textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the western and southern portions of Central Alabama for late Sunday into Monday. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- There is a moderate to high (40-70%) chance for patchy dense fog late tonight into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026

This evening surface high pressure continues to weaken across the Deep South. The previous boundary that was to our south along the coast has fizzled out. With ample residual moisture across Central Alabama and low level moisture increasing, patchy dense fog and low stratus are anticipated tonight to develop. A dense fog advisory has been issued for the area. The best timeframe for travel impacts is from around 3am to 9am, until we get enough mixing.

Any shower or thunderstorm activity between now and Sunday afternoon is expected to be minimal. Convection chances increase as we move into Sunday night as our next frontal system approaches. Guidance is looking less robust with our next system in regards to instability and overall amounts of QPF. While there is a low to moderate chance for showers and thunderstorms with the front, confidence on intensity has waned as guidance has been waffling. Convection may have a difficult time holding its intensity as the system moves into Central Alabama with the better instability far to the west of Alabama. While not zero, threats include damaging winds and large hail. The latest data does show the front a little slower moving through the southeast counties on Monday, so chances are looking higher for convection to continue into the afternoon Monday. Conditions clear for Tuesday through the remainder of the upcoming week with ridging for Tuesday, a reinforcing boundary for Wednesday and then more ridging as we head into next weekend.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

Light to calm winds with abundant low level moisture in the area has led to widespread dense fog this morning across Central AL. Most sites are LIFR and will likely remain in LIFR to maybe IFR conditions through 15z before increasing to MVFR. By 18z, we should have VFR VIS and CIGs through the remainder of the afternoon. A cold front is expected to approach the region late tonight leading to increased rain and thunderstorms chances for West Alabama. Therefore, I've included Prob30 for TSRA at TCL. For the other sites, the moist air mass from today will remain in place, so guidance has suggested the potential for more fog development generally after 06-09z, but other guidance pushes the frontal boundary through the region, limiting fog development. For now, I've trended VIS down to 4sm, but this could change based on how the frontal boundary evolves through the day.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Continued rain chances through the weekend will help keep min RH values generally above 50%. Drier air returns late Monday in the wake of a cold front with min RH values falling to 30-40% by Tuesday afternoon. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 83 57 78 50 / 10 20 30 0 Anniston 82 58 78 52 / 10 20 30 10 Birmingham 84 62 79 54 / 10 20 30 0 Tuscaloosa 84 62 80 54 / 10 40 30 10 Calera 85 61 81 54 / 10 20 30 10 Auburn 82 63 81 59 / 20 10 50 20 Montgomery 82 62 81 57 / 20 20 50 20 Troy 82 62 82 58 / 20 20 60 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.