textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

- Mainly dry conditions expected this week with seasonable temperatures.

- Fire danger will be somewhat elevated the next couple of days due to recent dryness, lower RH values, and an increase in winds, but sub-critical conditions are expected.

- Considerable drought conditions are expected to worsen through early next week with a high chance for much warmer temperatures to develop.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

High cirrus clouds continue to stream northeastward over the deep south as a shortwave moves eastward along the northern Gulf Coast. All rain will be well to to south as a result, with a broad surface ridge extending eastward to the southern Appalachians. Northerly to northeasterly pressure gradient winds will continue through this afternoon prevailing between 5 and 10mph with a few gusts above 15mph at times. The cool and dry northerly flow will allow for dewpoints to mix down into the low and mid 30s by this afternoon as highs top out near 70 degrees. As was discussed overnight, fire weather conditions will certainly be on the forefront over the next seven days with very little to no rainfall expected. Another dry surface front is expected to move in from the northeast during the day on Tuesday, reinforcing the dry airmass across the southeast. If winds are any higher than currently forecast, we'll be close to critical fire weather conditions both on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Even though we had measurable rain over the weekend, fuels remain quite dry due to the considerable drought conditions.

By the middle of the week, a strong 1039mb surface ridge centered over New England will keep surface winds out of the east and maintain our cool and dry regime. As the 500mb ridge becomes centered over the western Atlantic by the end of the week, we'll see additional moisture streaming in aloft with a weak shortwave. With the CAD surface boundary still in place to our south, guidance is hinting at a very small chance for a few showers developing mainly along and south of the I-85 corridor Wednesday night through early Thursday morning, but most folks should remain dry. Global guidance continues to trend toward upper level height rises by the end of the week. A 588-591 decameter ridge is advertised to develop over the southwestern Gulf and build northeastward by the end of the weekend and into next week. Highs in the mid 80s certainly appear likely at this point by Sunday and Monday of next week with zero indications of any rainfall.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour forecast. Thick cirrus clouds noted on satellite currently will move EWD and away from C AL TAF sites by daybreak Tue leaving SKC conditions. NRLY winds will taper down tonight with many becoming light/variable. NE winds 8-13kts, along with higher gusts at times, will commence during the day Tue with mixing as surface pressure gradients remain tight.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected for much of this week with high pressure dominating the pattern. RH values will continue to drop into the 25-35 percent range today and tomorrow afternoon with 20ft wind gusts up to 15 mph out of the north today and northeast by Tuesday. RH values increase slightly to the 30-35 percent range Wednesday afternoon, while easterly 20ft wind gusts increase to around 15-20 mph, highest gusts southeast. Although conditions are still expected to remain below red flag thresholds, ongoing drought conditions will keep fuels very dry. Any fires could spread quickly due to the prevailing breezy conditions that are forecast. Conditions will be closely monitored over the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 43 74 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 45 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 49 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 46 77 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 47 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 49 76 52 70 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 46 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 47 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.