textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 108 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

- Thunderstorms: Strong to severe storms are possible through the weekend. These storms will be capable of producing localized gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 108 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

A weak surface front will try to push into the region, influenced by a trough to the north. This boundary will weaken by tomorrow evening as it works away from the primary forcing associated with the upper-level trough. Consequently, rain chances this afternoon will be focused primarily along this boundary. Additional areas of rain will also move into the south with the northward progression of the sea-breeze from the coast. Given ample instability through the weekend, a few strong to severe storms are possible for this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with damaging winds as the primary threat. The boundary will continue to shift south and weaken by late Sunday evening.

In the meantime, a weak low pressure system is expected to develop on the southern periphery of the trough, becoming closed off from the main upper-level support by Sunday afternoon. This closed low will meander southeastward, stalling near the Tennessee River Valley by Monday morning. This feature will serve as the catalyst for multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday as it drifts across the region. By Wednesday, the closed low is projected to shift westward as upper- level flow becomes dominated by high pressure building off the East Coast. Under this ridge, rain chances into next weekend will likely return to a more typical diurnal pattern of mid-July showers and thunderstorms.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, except for afternoon convection on Saturday. Based on radar trends, TEMPO groups for thunderstorms have been added after 20z across the north, with VCSH included for southern terminals. As models have struggled with coverage and timing, overall confidence remains low; therefore, the forecast reflects a persistent summertime pattern. While activity should weaken after sunset, the proximity of the low introduces uncertainty. A PROB30 has been included for showers overnight into Sunday morning due to low confidence regarding its southward progression.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

A warm and moist air mass will persist through the weekend, accompanied by light to calm winds. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected into Monday as a weak system moves into the region and stalls through early next week. No fire weather concerns are anticipated over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 88 69 86 / 60 70 60 80 Anniston 73 88 70 85 / 50 70 70 80 Birmingham 74 89 72 87 / 50 60 50 70 Tuscaloosa 74 89 72 88 / 30 60 50 60 Calera 74 92 71 89 / 30 60 60 70 Auburn 74 90 72 86 / 20 70 70 80 Montgomery 75 92 72 88 / 10 70 70 70 Troy 74 92 71 86 / 10 60 70 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.