textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

- There is a medium to high chance for severe weather tonight into Monday morning. There's increasing concern for widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

- Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm system will result in winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected this afternoon and tonight. - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Severe weather is expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

A deep trough with a strong low pressure system is expected to slide through the Central US and push a cold front into Central Alabama. We're expecting a line of storms to move quickly along that frontal boundary. Widespread damaging wind appears to be the highest threat; however, strong low level and deep layer shear will certainly raise the potential for a few embedded tornadoes with this line. Currently, the lines of storms is expected to move into Central Alabama around 9pm - 11pm and exit the region to our southeast by 6- 7 am Monday morning.

Instability doesn't appear to be as much of an uncertainty as it has been in the past few days. Latest model trends have become more consistent with anywhere between 700-1200 J/kg of surface- based CAPE. Given the strong dynamics and strong low level jet, this should easily be able to support the severe storms that are shown, along with supporting embedded tornadoes.

Monday will be much colder just after this cold front moves through. Monday daytime highs are only expected to top out in the 40s for most locations. A widespread freeze is expected Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning with at least a low to medium chance for a hard freeze for some of our colder locations across the north on Tuesday morning. Broad high pressure builds across the region for the remainder of next week, keeping Central AL rain free and moderating to more seasonable temperatures as we go through the second half of the week.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

VFR conditions for the 15 to 18 hours through 00z. Showers and storms move in after 00z along with MVFR conditions for the north. Just MVFR clouds will impact AUO and MGM by 6z. Strong southerly winds will be possible as well after 18z with gusts up to 30 kts.

16

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will climb into the upper-40 and low-50% range today ahead of the cold front, with rain chances increasing into the overnight hours. However, MinRH values will quickly drop by Tuesday, as cool, dry air blasts into the region. MinRH values could drop into the low-20% range for some locations, with sustained winds near 10 MPH at times. MinRH values will slightly rebound the next two days, but should generally remain below 30% through the middle of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 39 43 24 / 0 90 30 0 Anniston 78 42 44 24 / 0 90 40 0 Birmingham 78 39 44 27 / 10 100 30 0 Tuscaloosa 80 40 46 25 / 0 100 20 0 Calera 80 41 46 25 / 10 90 30 0 Auburn 78 48 49 29 / 0 90 60 0 Montgomery 80 46 48 27 / 0 90 40 0 Troy 80 49 50 28 / 0 80 50 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.