textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 548 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026

- A more active weather pattern is expected the next 7 days with several rounds of showers and storms expected. Some areas will receive beneficial rainfall.

- A low chance for severe weather may materialize Monday night, followed by another potential severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday night, but confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026

No need to adjust your radar screens, there is actually rain falling in western portions of Central Alabama! An MCV is located over West Alabama. Previously this was associated with some strong to severe storms in Mississippi and southwestern portions of Alabama, but now it is mainly just producing light to moderate rain with embedded lightning. The earlier bowing segment is now producing very little lightning, and will continue to weaken as it moves further east into a drier and more stable air mass. Off to our west, another MCS and associated MCV is back over the ArkLaTex, with a band of storms connecting to the first MCV in a low-level convergence zone. This MCS should track southeastward along the instability gradient within northwest flow aloft, with any associated severe weather likely remaining southwest of the area, as also depicted by the experimental Warn on Forecast system. Some showers and storms on the northern fringe of this activity will probably move across portions of the area. The potential for severe weather the rest of the night is very low, but at least southwestern portions of the area will receive some beneficial rainfall.

The forecast for Saturday will ultimately be dependent on the placement of lingering boundaries and MCVs, as well as to what degree convective overturning increases stability. Still, with a moist air mass in place, expect at least scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms to re-develop by afternoon. If sufficient instability can develop, there will be a low chance for an isolated strong to severe storm. Will keep an eye out for any MCS activity to our northwest Saturday night into Sunday morning, but current HREF consensus suggests any activity remains west of our area. For Sunday, chances for afternoon showers and storms will become confined to our far southwestern counties, as high pressure to our northeast allows some lower dew points to filter in.

Monday and Monday night a neutrally to negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated deepening surface low will lift northeastward through the Midwest, while a mid-level speed max moves over the Mid-South and Lower Ohio Valley. This will set the stage for an outbreak of severe weather up that way. Meanwhile in our area, warm 700mb temperatures associated with an elevated mixed layer (EML) will serve as a cap over the area. Heights will be neutral to rising as ridging strengthens over the western Gulf. If any weak height falls reach our northern counties, this would not be until late Monday night. The environment in our northwest counties would be conditionally favorable for supercells Monday afternoon and evening, but this would be dependent on getting enough forcing for one to actually develop. Showers and storms do begin to move into our northern counties after midnight Monday night. Instability will be lower, but a low- end severe threat could materialize.

A somewhat greater chance for severe storms may occur as another, weaker shortwave rounds the base of the northwest/north-central CONUS trough Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will occur as the front from Monday's system stalls off to our northwest. Instability, mid-level lapse rates, and shear appear favorable for damaging winds and hail, while forecast hodographs remain more uncertain regarding any tornado threat. Will continue to monitor as we get closer given the more subtle nature of this system. Some potential for showers and storms continues into Wednesday as the front moves through the area, though forcing will be weaker.

Troughing will amplify over the eastern CONUS by the end of the week, while the front will stall near the Gulf Coast. An eastward moving southern stream shortwave will get absorbed into the trough, potentially inducing a wave of low pressure to develop along the front. Depending on the track of this system, this may result in beneficial rainfall somewhere across the Deep South.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026

Showers and an occasional thunderstorm are moving through Central Alabama this morning, leading to times of lowered vis and cigs at terminals. MVFR ceilings should set in this morning and persist until early afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm redevelopment is anticipated in spots this afternoon, and PROB30 is maintained at all sites with this update. Guidance hints at MVFR or IFR conditions by early tomorrow morning. This trend is noted in the TAFs for EET, ASN, MGM, and AUO.

Observations from TCL remain intermittent, so will continue with AMD NOT SKED there.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

12

FIRE WEATHER

Occasional showers and storms are expected today, with MinRH values above 50 percent areawide. Lower rain chances are expected Sunday and Monday, with RH values mainly in the 40 to 50 percent range. Several opportunities for showers and storms are then expected the rest of the week, with higher MinRH values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 78 55 83 56 / 70 30 10 10 Anniston 78 57 83 58 / 70 30 10 10 Birmingham 79 60 83 61 / 70 30 10 10 Tuscaloosa 80 60 83 61 / 70 20 20 10 Calera 81 59 84 59 / 70 30 10 10 Auburn 80 62 83 62 / 50 60 10 10 Montgomery 82 61 83 61 / 60 50 20 10 Troy 82 61 84 60 / 60 60 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.