textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

- Heat: Major to extreme heat risk is expected to persist through the weekend into the beginning of the workweek, with heat indices reaching 105 to near 110 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect.

- Thunderstorms: After a break today, a summertime convective pattern returns Monday through much of the week with 20-40% rain chances.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast into the middle of next week, keeping heat index values well into Heat Advisory criteria. Rain chances will also start to decrease by today, as the ridge shifts slightly to the west. This will allow for more convergence aloft up north, keeping the isolated rain chances mainly in our southern counties. These storms will continue to be capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds given the incredibly unstable airmass.

By the middle of next week, the ridge will slide to the west even more, allowing for the region to shift into northwest flow between the ridge to the west, and a trough over the Ohio Valley. Guidance is already in pretty good agreement with a surface boundary working into the region during this time, with medium confidence in increased rain chances, and afternoon highs dropping a few degrees by Friday. While this won't be a wholesale swing, any relief will be welcomed given this extended pattern we've been stuck in.

/44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are expected (>95% chance) through the period due to a persistent upper-level ridge. Chances for isolated SHRA/TSRA are very low today (10% or less) due to ridging and dry air.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the next several days, with the greatest chances across our southern areas. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 99 77 100 75 / 0 0 30 20 Anniston 97 75 97 74 / 0 0 20 20 Birmingham 98 78 98 76 / 0 0 30 20 Tuscaloosa 100 78 100 76 / 0 0 30 20 Calera 98 77 99 76 / 0 0 40 20 Auburn 93 76 95 77 / 10 0 20 20 Montgomery 99 77 100 76 / 10 0 30 20 Troy 97 76 98 75 / 20 10 30 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.