textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts possible through Saturday.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 to 2, out of 5, risk for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.

- There is also a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Friday as the cold front works south into the area. The main threat will be damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

The radar is clear at this hour across Central Alabama. We are in between waves. Onshore flow is allowing for a stream of low level moisture ahead of our approaching system. Over the last couple of days, rainfall has been from roughly one quarter of an inch north to up to 2 inches across a good chunk of the southern half of Central Alabama. This rain will set the stage and saturate soils for more rain to add to these numbers for Thursday and Friday when the potential for heavy rain will be greatest and a flood watch continues for much of the CWA. On Thursday the remnants of what was Arthur will move close enough for increased rain coverage as this low moves into Louisiana and Mississippi. Even though Arthur is not organized, it still has tropical characteristics, meaning that there will be a risk Thursday for gusty winds in any stronger convection bands. Also, weak spin up tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Lightning may not be as widespread, but a few embedded thunderstorms may occur at times.

High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves into the area and stalls. This will help to modify the tropical airmass with more thunder expected. A few marginally severe storms may occur as well with just frontal forcing to assist. Some gusty winds may occur. The front is expected to stall somewhere across the midsection of the area on Saturday. The latest guidance is indicating higher QPF as a result of rain chances sticking around for the weekend. Our flood watch may need to be extended into Saturday if this trend continues. By Sunday, an unsupportive upper flow will allow for the stalled boundary to push back northward with yet again more onshore flow. Temperatures will slowly creep back up, and zonal upper flow disturbances enhanced by daytime heating will contribute to diurnal convection for Sunday into Monday. Extended guidance has a low to medium chance of yet another front moving into the Deep South by the end of the extended Tuesday into Wednesday. This system too has a decent chance of stalling with zonal to west-northwest upper flow to only support meager advancement across Alabama by the middle of next week, and it will keep rain chances around.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

We are currently in a lull in the activity on the radar that should continue at the TAF sites for the remainder of the night. Another round of rain should begin to move into the area from the southwest toward daybreak. This will be associated with outer moisture bands from the remnants of Arthur. Winds will increase through the morning with S-SSW winds 10 to 15 kts with occasional higher gusts. Ceilings have already started to drop to MVFR at some sites with the remainder to go down in the next couple of hours. The exception is AUO which has already fallen to IFR and should stay that way until mid morning. Non-VFR cigs should persist through the rest of the TAF cycle. Including an afternoon/early evening window on Thu to PROB30 embedded thunder, but most of the activity should be rain showers.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 82 70 85 65 / 90 80 30 10 Anniston 81 71 84 67 / 100 90 30 20 Birmingham 80 70 85 69 / 100 80 30 30 Tuscaloosa 80 72 85 71 / 100 70 50 40 Calera 81 71 86 69 / 100 80 40 40 Auburn 80 72 82 70 / 100 100 70 40 Montgomery 80 72 84 71 / 100 90 90 50 Troy 80 72 84 71 / 100 90 100 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.