textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026

- Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 156 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026

An active weather pattern remains in place as we move through the weekend. Significant uncertainty persists regarding the magnitude of shortwave forcing progged to move across the region on Friday. While some models suggest a more robust impulse capable of organized convection, others maintain a weaker, more diffuse signal. High-resolution guidance continues to struggle with the timing and placement of these features, leading to a lower-than- average confidence forecast for Friday afternoon or Saturday afternoon.

Regarding temperatures, heat indices remain a concern; however, they are extremely sensitive to localized cloud cover and potential outflow boundaries. Should convective debris persist longer than anticipated, peak indices may struggle to reach advisory criteria. Conversely, any extended periods of clearing will likely push values into the 105 range.

The long-awaited frontal passage has trended slower in recent data. We have expanded the timing of the front to encompass late Sunday through Tuesday. This slower progression will maintain higher moisture levels across the southern counties through early next week before drier, continental air finally overspreads the entire forecast area by Wednesday morning.

16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening hours; however, confidence remains high enough to include TSRA only at EET and MGM. Continued to include VCSH at all sites through 02Z. Tonight, fog development remains possible, dependent on where convection lingers late into the evening. Any activity over a TAF site will likely lower visibility to IFR or lower, accompanied by gusty winds. Isolated convective activity is possible Friday morning, with coverage increasing after 18z.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns continue to be low. A warm and moist air mass will remain in place with diurnally driven thunderstorm activity expected over the next several days. Winds will generally remain light during the day, becoming calm overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 92 73 90 / 20 50 20 70 Anniston 73 92 73 90 / 20 40 20 60 Birmingham 74 93 75 91 / 20 30 20 50 Tuscaloosa 74 93 75 92 / 20 20 20 40 Calera 73 96 74 94 / 20 20 20 40 Auburn 74 92 74 91 / 20 20 20 30 Montgomery 74 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 20 Troy 73 93 73 93 / 30 20 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.