textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026

- Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for Friday and the daytime on Saturday. - Very high (90-100%) rain chances are expected Saturday night into Sunday evening, with the highest during the day on Sunday. At this time, the severe threat remains very low due to very limited instability.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1110 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026

This evening, surface ridging is present across E Conus with a stationary boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle, SEWD toward the Gulf Coast, and into C FL. In the upper levels, a low pressure trough is digging along the US W Coast with ridging in the Lee of the Rockies and NW flow into E Conus. Look for cool (albeit above normal) temps for the remainder of tonight and only a few high clouds with ripples in the NW flow. The warming trend will continue into Friday. The upper low is expected to traverse EWD across W Conus and the Rockies now through Fri. By Sat, it should be extending from the Plains into TX with zonal flow into AL. Rain chances will be minimal during the day Sat across C AL. Most of the activity should hold off starting until Sat night. The upper wave will move across TX Sat with our flow changing to SW by Sat night. The upper system will help to usher a surface low and front out of KS/OK/N TX toward MS/AL by Sun morning. Rain showers along with a few thunderstorms will occur with this system. The best chances for beneficial rain will be during the day on Sun. Guidance is suggesting anywhere from around 1 to 2 inches across C AL before all is said and done this weekend. A few showers may linger behind the front until the upper system is completely through. This front is not expected to have a big cold surge behind it as the main energy is W to E, but it will bring drier weather for most on Monday and on into Tue/Wed. Will look for NW upper flow behind the front on Mon with the flow turning zonal for the remainder of the extended with upper ridging becoming elongated across the gulf. Well above normal temps will be present for next week.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1207 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026

Through Saturday afternoon:

After a cool start temperatures are warming up nicely this morning under clear skies with a very dry air mass in place. Will go below NBM for lows tonight based on this morning's lows, with calm winds and the dry air mass. The only thing preventing ideal radiational cooling conditions will be some mid and high-level clouds with a shortwave in northwest flow aloft. Another pleasant day is expected tomorrow with high pressure remaining in control. Fire danger will be somewhat elevated today and tomorrow with low RH values, but winds will be light preventing the need for a red flag warning. Ahead of our next system, the daytime hours on Saturday look dry for outdoor activities in most areas due to shortwave ridging, other than some morning virga/maybe a sprinkle with a weak shortwave.

Saturday night through Sunday night:

A potent southern stream shortwave will reach Texas by Saturday, with guidance now coming into better agreement on it becoming a closed low as it moves into Alabama by Sunday. A surface low will deepen slightly across the ArkLaMiss late Saturday night, beginning to occlude as it reaches Alabama on Sunday. A 50kt LLJ will move across Alabama during the morning hours on Sunday, aiding in the development and maintenance of a strongly forced squall line that will develop off to our west and move quickly eastward across the state Sunday morning. At the same time a warm front with dewpoints barely reaching 60F will be trying to lift northward. The most likely scenario continues to be that the squall line will out-run the narrow axis of weak surface-based instability at the surface, resulting in just some gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. An alternative but not quite as likely scenario is that the squall line is not quite as strongly forced and is a tad bit slower, allowing 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE to make it into our far southern counties, resulting in a marginal threat of damaging winds/a brief tornado as the strong forcing and shear compensate for the weak instability, especially in our far southeast counties. We will continue to monitor as we start to get in range of the CAMs.

As the upper low moves by Sunday afternoon, the colder air aloft will cause continued showers and some storms. Instability does come up in the mid-level dry slot with steep lapse rates but shear will be weaker by then. If updrafts can remained sustained, some strong storms with gusty winds and small hail may develop, with a low but nonzero risk for hail up to quarter size.

Monday through Wednesday:

Strong/flat subtropical ridging develops over Mexico and the Gulf next week, downstream of a western CONUS trough. This will be a favorable pattern for well above normal temperatures across Central Alabama. A couple low-amplitude shortwaves/mid-level speed maxes will pass by to our northwest along with some surface lows. Moisture appears very limited with these systems at this time.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect light and variable winds overnight under mostly clear skies. Fair skies will persist on Friday with low-level winds from the northeast to east at 3-6 kts.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum relative humidity values will drop generally into the 20 to 30 percent range for Friday afternoon, resulting in elevated fire danger. However, winds will be light. A round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 34 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 35 65 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 40 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 39 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 37 67 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 41 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 40 69 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 40 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.