textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026

- Expect scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms across the area overnight with the bulk of the activity gradually shifting to the southeast portion of the area towards daybreak Thursday.

- A brief dry period is forecast Thursday afternoon through early Friday before additional showers with some thunderstorm activity is expected during the day Friday through Saturday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026

Longwave troughing extends from over the Great Lakes and extends south to over the Deep South region and will continue moving east overnight into Thursday. A surface cold front continues to gradually drop southeast across the area, now located roughly along the Interstate 59 corridor at this time. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorm activity will continue to move east, with heavy activity gradually weakening as it affects our East- Central Counties through midnight. Additional showers with some thunderstorms are moving into portions of our Northwest and Southwest counties again, but low-level instability has been reduced by earlier convective activity. Much of this activity overnight will be driven by steepening mid to upper-level lapse rates as a few shortwaves continue to move east over the area along with a few pockets of higher speed maxes at jet level. Expect showers with a few thunderstorms to shift southeast with time overnight while low clouds will persist areawide through daybreak. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s far north to the low 60s southeast. Shower activity will become increasingly confined to our far south and southeast counties by late morning while improving conditions will be experienced across the rest of the area with lower humidity and cooler temperatures as highs only reach into the low to mid 70s.

A zonal flow pattern aloft will persist through late week and into the upcoming weekend. A compact upper low will move east over Baja California late Thursday night with shortwave disturbances rapidly moving east toward the area overnight into Friday. Meanwhile, the surface cold front that moves to our south by Thursday afternoon will decelerate with time and stall across the Northern Gulf by Friday morning. As the upper low opens into a shortwave trough and advances east toward the area Friday night into Saturday, expect increasing chances for showers with some thunderstorm activity, though storms look to remain elevated in nature with isentropic lift from the stalled front to our south. Lows will be in the 50s with highs in the 70s through Saturday.

The pattern aloft will become more amplified by late in the weekend as a northern stream longwave trough swings southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions, bringing cooler and drier conditions into the area Saturday night and persisting though early Tuesday. Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 40s Sunday morning areawide followed by highs near 70 Sunday afternoon.

05

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026

High confidence for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight through mid-morning Thursday as a surface cold front moves southeast across the area. Moderate confidence for showers and a few thunderstorms affecting MGM/AUB in the early through late morning hours on Thursday. Moderate confidence for low clouds to persist through mid Thursday morning before VFR conditions returning areawide during the afternoon.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect the area overnight, followed by drier conditions by later in the day Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. Drier air behind the front will drop RHs back into the 30-40% range across the northern counties on Thursday afternoon, before rebounding as rain chances return for Friday and Saturday. Drier conditions return again for Sunday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 52 72 48 70 / 80 10 10 10 Anniston 56 73 50 70 / 80 10 20 20 Birmingham 56 72 53 70 / 80 10 20 30 Tuscaloosa 57 74 53 70 / 80 10 30 40 Calera 57 76 52 71 / 80 20 30 40 Auburn 62 75 56 68 / 80 40 30 40 Montgomery 62 76 55 67 / 80 50 30 60 Troy 61 76 54 67 / 70 60 30 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.