textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026

- Heavy Rain: Given a stalled cold front and plenty of moisture streaming in from the Gulf, heavy rain will be possible into this weekend. A Flood Watch is in effect from Thursday morning through Saturday morning.

- Heat: Hot conditions return by Monday and continue into the middle of next week with medium to high chances of temperatures going into the upper 90s to near the century mark for portions of Central Alabama along with heat indices near or over 105.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026

Guidance and NHC continue to keep Tropical Storm Bertha moving westward away from Alabama along the Louisiana Gulf Coast today and onshore again along the Southeast Texas Coast tonight. We are now turning our attention to a surface front that has made its way into the area, currently stretching from Virginia, to Far Northwest Alabama and into Northern Louisiana. Northwest upper flow should help to nudge this front a little further into the state today before stalling tonight across Central Alabama. It is expected to remain across Central Alabama through late Friday into early Saturday before pushing back northward as a warm front. This will keep the area in a wet pattern as it meanders around the area as a focus for convection into this weekend. With that said, will continue the Flood Watch for the far northeast counties from Thursday into early Saturday as these areas continue to indicate the best risk for heavy rain.

The heat advisory that was in effect has expired. Increased rain chances and a surface front moving into the area will lower temperatures just enough for Thursday into this weekend to keep us just below heat advisory criteria. However, the reprieve will be short lived. Over the weekend, the Western US upper ridge will expand and nudge eastward. This will result in hotter temperatures returning back to Central Alabama and only minimal if any diurnal convection for the first half of next week. This also means a medium to high chance that heat advisories will be needed again by next Monday for portions of Central Alabama, and likely continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the pre-dawn hours, followed by a medium to high chance for MVFR cigs to develop towards daybreak and persist through mid morning at most sites. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will high enough by 18z across the northern sites to include a PROB30 group during that time.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Through this weekend, rain will remain in the forecast with MinRH values staying above 50 percent. Given the warm and humid air mass, and continued chances for rain, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 73 89 73 / 70 60 80 20 Anniston 91 74 88 73 / 50 50 80 20 Birmingham 91 75 90 75 / 60 60 70 20 Tuscaloosa 92 76 92 75 / 50 40 60 10 Calera 94 75 93 74 / 40 40 60 10 Auburn 91 75 91 75 / 30 20 20 10 Montgomery 95 75 94 75 / 30 20 20 10 Troy 93 73 94 74 / 20 20 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday morning for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah.