textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through the upcoming week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across southern portions of Alabama both today and Monday. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough lifting across the northeast as an upper level ridge expands out to our west. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed draped across the southern half of the state. This boundary is likely to linger close to the northern Gulf coast for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a few impulses will rotate through the northwest flow aloft, helping to trigger a few bouts of convection, generally during the afternoon and evening hours. Greatest chances for convection through mid week will be to the south of the boundary as a moisture convergence axis becomes established. Drier air filtering in across our northern areas will help keep rain chances at bay. To the south of the front, ample instability, high DCAPE and mid-level dry air will continue to promote a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storm. Therefore, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the southern half of the state through Tuesday.

By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work week.

High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper 80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a moderate heat risk for most through the next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

There is high confidence in VFR conditions for most of this TAF period. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our southern areas during the late afternoon hours. As a result, continued with the PROB30 mention at AUO/MGM through 03Z Monday. North-northwest winds today from 5-10 knots will become light and variable overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage, and AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND for EET due to a visibility sensor outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations today and Monday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins to return through the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 66 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 72 95 72 94 / 10 10 30 30 Calera 70 93 70 92 / 0 10 20 10 Auburn 72 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 0 Montgomery 73 95 72 95 / 10 20 40 20 Troy 72 95 70 93 / 10 30 40 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.