textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026

- Dry conditions will continue, with a warming trend expected through the week. Temperatures will drop this weekend following a cold front.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a stout upper ridge across the southwestern US and and upper trough pushing offshore of the northeastern US. This leaves us with west-northwest flow aloft for the next couple of days. Much drier air in place (PWATs down around 0.5") have allowed us to cool off pretty efficiently this evening. As of writing, temps are currently in the upper 50s to mid 60s. We remain on track to drop into the 40s/50s by Wednesday morning.

Dry conditions remain in place through the week as upper ridging expands east. However, if we do our best to find a mechanism to produce rain, we can pull out a weak H7 shortwave moving across the TN Valley tonight. CAMS are doing their best to hint at some very light activity as there is a thin layer of moisture around H7. With that said, much drier air in the lower levels would likely prevent much of this activity from reaching the surface. Ridging begins to retreat back west by the weekend as a trough digs across the Great Lakes while sending a cold front our way. Moisture recovery does not look too impressive ahead of this boundary so this will likely be a dry FROPA for most. Best rain chances will be across northern AL where there is a 10-30% chance.

Regarding our fire weather concerns, moisture will begin to recover through the day tomorrow as a southeasterly ~30kt LLJ develops. We will need to pay close attention to the trends regarding this weekend's front. Much drier air looks to surge in leading to RHs back into the 20-25% range.

Lastly, we will see a warming trend kick in through the week with highs rebounding back into the mid 80s by Friday. We trim off about 10-15 degrees on Saturday in the wake of a cold front. That cool snap doesn't last long as we warm right back up early next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are in place across the northern terminals right now. Low level moisture will continue to increase through the morning from the south. MVFR ceilings are now at AUO and MGM this morning, so will go prevalent here through 16 to 17z. Continued with just TEMPO groups at all other sites based on satellite. VFR returns by a7 to 18z.

NOTE: We were informed that AUO AWOS will be undergoing maintenance from 12z to 18z, so AMD NOT SKED has been added with MVFR ceilings currently present.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture will begin to slightly recover tonight through the remainder of the week. Min RH values on Wednesday and Thursday will hover in the 40-50% range. A cold front will move through on Friday with much drier air moving into the area over the weekend. RHs will fall into the 20-25% range each afternoon. Winds will likely be elevated in the wake of that front so we will need to monitor for increased fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 52 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 72 53 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 73 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 78 57 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 75 56 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 71 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 75 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 75 56 83 57 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.