textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms may produce localized gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today, as a weak trough begins to move into the region. Over the next few days, this trough will slowly become closed off from the upper- level flow, slowly meandering to the east as a pseudo closed-low. This closed low will keep rain chances in the forecast again on Tuesday, with slightly less coverage anticipated Wednesday and Thursday as we lose the forcing associated with the low. Thunderstorm chances here will resemble the typical, diurnally driven convection that we're used to in the summer.

It still appears as if another weak shortwave may sneak into the region via the Midwest this weekend. This would allow for more organized rain chances come Saturday and Sunday. With that being said, confidence here remains low given the time range, so continued rounds of afternoon thunderstorms seems the most likely scenario right now. Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures will continue to run near normal for this time of the year, ranging in the upper-80s and low-90s.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026

Given an approaching upper-level trough, afternoon thunderstorm chances should be amplified again today. The bulk of this activity should avoid most terminals, with only scattered thunderstorms expected closer to the airports. Because of that, PROB30s for TSRA can be expected through 07/02z. Outside of the afternoon CU field, VFR conditions can be expected for the rest of the TAF period.

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FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 91 71 91 / 20 30 20 30 Anniston 72 90 72 91 / 30 30 20 30 Birmingham 73 91 73 91 / 20 30 20 30 Tuscaloosa 73 91 73 91 / 20 30 20 30 Calera 72 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 30 Auburn 73 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 20 Montgomery 73 93 74 93 / 20 20 30 20 Troy 73 92 74 92 / 20 20 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.