textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

- The severe storm threat has transitioned to a heavy rain and flash flood threat through the overnight hours along the I-20 corridor. Small stream flooding along with flooding of poor drainage and urban areas will be the primary impact.

- A dry and above normal temperature pattern is expected to return and continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1144 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

The KBMX radar has been pretty busy this evening as showers and storms continue to track across the region. We have seen several strong storms earlier in the evening capable of producing some pretty impressive hail. The first storm of the day rode along the nose of a theta-e ridge right into Central AL where it produced a thin tornado. We will be surveying that storm tomorrow morning. Our severe risk is just about over for the evening with the loss of instability. As the front begins to stall, we will transition to a hydro threat that we are currently monitoring. Forecast soundings earlier today hinted at a deep warm cloud layer which would help promote high rainfall rates. We have seen this scenario play out with MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates generally ranging from 3- 5"/hr. The flooding threat will be closely monitored as we head through the overnight hours.

Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave carving into the southeast US as a surface cold front slowly progresses south across the state. Shower and storm activity will gradually shift south across the state through the day Friday as the front regains some movement. Drier air and upper ridging will then move in for the weekend. This weekend looks to be rather pleasant with highs generally in the 70s. Rain chances quickly return to the forecast early next week as our another front and H5 shortwave head our way.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

Widespread SHRA and TSRA will affect most of the northern terminal sites over the next six hours, including TCL, BHM, and EET. Showers and storms will continue to move southward between 06z and 12z, affecting MGM and AUO. Low IFR stratus will also be an impact at times as well, which is forecast to gradually mix out through the day on Friday. All terminals are expected to observe VFR conditions by Friday afternoon. Winds will remain light outside of thunderstorms overnight primarily from the north to northeast.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air gradually filters into the region Friday into the weekend with RH values falling to 30-40%. Light winds will help negate fire weather concerns. Moisture begins to recover early next week with min RH values back into the 40-50% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 54 70 42 72 / 80 0 0 0 Anniston 55 70 44 73 / 90 10 0 0 Birmingham 56 70 47 73 / 90 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 57 72 44 75 / 80 0 0 0 Calera 57 71 45 75 / 90 10 0 0 Auburn 57 68 52 71 / 90 40 10 10 Montgomery 60 71 51 74 / 90 40 10 0 Troy 60 71 53 73 / 100 60 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.