textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place this week with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches are forecast this week, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

Only light shower activity if any is present on the radar at this hour across the southern counties of Central Alabama. There is a medium chance for another wave of light to moderate showers to develop and move into the area from the west/southwest during the pre-dawn hours. The best chances will be in the southern half of the CWA. This evening we continue to have a stalled surface boundary generally north of the I-20 corridor. This boundary may meander a little on Tuesday before fizzling out Tuesday evening. South of this boundary will be the focus for light to moderate rain showers (and a few embedded thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon). We could see 0.5 inch to maybe 2 inches on Tuesday. While some isolated higher amounts would allow for minor flooding, our current thinking is that Tuesday's event will help to set the stage to saturate soils for Thursday. By Wednesday the stalled boundary should fizzle out. This will allow for tropical moisture to increase across the state. To add to the mix, we are closely watching the low and potential formation of a tropical feature over the gulf toward mid week. Regardless, the potential for heavy rain for Thursday and Friday and lingering activity into this weekend is increasing. Overall QPF continues to show roughly 4 to 7 inches storm totals by the end of our forecast, with a few locally higher amounts. As we get closer to mid week, a flood watch will likely be necessary.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

Conditions should quickly begin to decline across the area, as low CIGs and rain begin to increase in coverage. Most terminals will quickly fall into IFR/MVFR category into the morning hours, with SHRA across all sites for most of this TAF period. The confidence for thunder is much lower, with only PROB30 groups introduced at this time. Rain should generally clear past 17/01z, with terminals settling into IFR/LIFR category for low CIGs.

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FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as a front stalls across the region. We will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 78 65 87 73 / 60 40 40 30 Anniston 76 67 85 73 / 80 50 50 30 Birmingham 78 67 87 73 / 80 40 40 40 Tuscaloosa 79 69 87 75 / 90 30 40 50 Calera 78 68 88 73 / 90 40 50 40 Auburn 73 69 84 73 / 100 70 70 30 Montgomery 76 69 85 74 / 100 60 80 30 Troy 76 69 84 74 / 100 70 80 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.