textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1043 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

- Major Heat Risk: A Heat Advisory is in effect Wednesday from 1 pm to 9 pm, with additional advisories likely to be issued for later this week. There is high confidence in dangerous heat with heat indices reaching 105-110F daily from Wednesday through the weekend.

- Dry Conditions: With little to no rain in the forecast for the next several days, concerns will be increasing toward the redevelopment of drought conditions across Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

Central Alabama will increasingly come under the influence of ridging building in across the southern United States through the rest of the week and beyond. Wednesday will feature another chance of showers and storms across eastern Central Alabama, but coverage at this time looks to be less than today. As the ridge builds in late week, those chances for rain become less, especially across western parts of the region, where no rain is in the forecast through at least Monday. Latest ECMWF, GFS, and other global models bring a demoralizing 598 to 600 decameter ridge and center it over the lower Mississippi Valley this weekend. The term demoralizing is used as a ridge near 600 dm will mean high temperatures pushing higher than we've seen this year. As Saturday rolls around and becomes Sunday and Monday, we are currently forecast to see high temperatures pushing or exceeding 100F across a broad part of the area, especially along and west of the I-65 corridor. Even more concerning is that the influence of the ridge looks to last through next week, even beyond the current forecast period. With less ground moisture due to an overall lack of precipitation moving forward, high temperatures may be allowed to exceed 100F going into the 7-9 day range from now. This is especially concerning for heat stress on people and animals, as well as increasing concerns with vegetation and the return of drought conditions heading toward the end of next week.

In the meantime, a Heat Advisory will go into effect at 1 pm Wednesday afternoon for most of Central Alabama, minus the eastern and southeastern counties. Heat index values will begin creeping above the 105F mark. This will most likely be expanded area-wide for Thursday at the next forecast update, and will likely be carried through the weekend. Nightly low temperatures will provide little relief from the heat, staying in the mid to upper 70s in most places south and west in Central Alabama. Higher terrain of northeast Alabama will stay a few degrees cooler through this whole run, with lows in the low 70s and highs in the mid 90s.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

Showers and storms continue across eastern portions of Central Alabama this evening. Short-term model guidance suggests that additional showers and storms may fire over the next couple hours farther to the west, so have extended the PROB30 groups for BHM, EET and AUO through 04z, along with MGM. Storm activity is currently ongoing near AUO. Lowered vis may develop in the morning where it does rain. Mentioned this in AUO TAF but left out of others due to low confidence. Storm chances are lower tomorrow afternoon and confined toward the Georgia state line. Included a PROB30 again for AUO.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 50 percent through Thursday. As ridging builds Friday, conditions will turn slightly drier, with MinRH values dropping into the mid 40 percent range in the southwest. By the weekend, MinRH values will further decrease to near 35-40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. While low shower and storm chances will persist through late week, the activity will become isolated and more confined to eastern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist..

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 93 74 95 / 10 30 20 30 Anniston 73 91 74 94 / 10 20 20 20 Birmingham 75 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 75 95 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 Calera 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 10 10 Auburn 74 91 75 93 / 20 20 20 20 Montgomery 76 96 76 98 / 20 10 10 20 Troy 74 95 75 95 / 20 20 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.