textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026

- A stalled front will keep rain chances in the south into Friday.

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for northwestern Central Alabama. Winter Storm Watch in effect for northeastern Central Alabama.

- Very cold air arrives late Sunday into early next week. Cold weather headlines will likely be posted in the coming days.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026

Overall, our thinking on this weekend's weather has not changed much. The latest model suite continues to suggest warmer temperatures on Saturday, limiting the amount of wintry precip we will see during the day. With that said, there will be a very fine gradient along the freezing line so we could see our freezing rain threat sag south briefly during the morning hours Saturday. The greatest chances for freezing rain/sleet will come across our northwestern counties. Have transitioned the Winter Storm Watch over those areas to a Winter Weather Advisory. Ice accumulations up to 1/4" and and snow/sleet accumulations up to 1" are likely. The Advisory currently includes Walker and Fayette counties. These two counties will be on the edge of that freezing line so there is a chance they warm up enough to see only rain. If that scenario pans out, we will make adjustments to the Advisory configuration as the event unfolds.

The Winter Storm Watch has been expanded south to include Calhoun and Cleburne counties. Hi-res guidance is beginning to pick up on the cold air wedge pushing across the AL/GA line. This scenario would promote a period of freezing rain across our northeastern counties Saturday night into Sunday morning. If/when confidence grows in this outcome, we will likely see an upgrade to a Winter Weather Advisory.

Another sneaky hazard with this event will be our prolonged rainfall threat. Rainfall totals through the weekend will range from 2-4" across our northern areas and 1-2" across the south. With this rain falling over several days, we shouldn't see too much of a hydro threat develop. With that said, if totals continue to creep up, a Flood Watch may be warranted going forward.

Sunday's forecast will also be a bit complicated. We will start with the winter risk. Temperatures will quickly fall on Sunday as much colder air arrives through the day. Moisture wrapping around this system would start out as freezing rain with a transition to snow as the column cools. Any accumulations on Sunday are expected to be light. However, this will pose a risk for black ice Sunday night into the Monday morning commute. Now for the other factor on Sunday. We also need to be on the lookout for strong storms on Sunday across the southern half of our area. Instability will begin to climb as we warm up through the day with CAPE values settling into the 400-600 J/kg range along with shear values from 50-60 knots. We will need to monitor how this situation develops and keep an eye on the CAM trends over the coming days.

To wrap this up, cold weather headlines will likely be issued in the next day or two as arctic air surges into the region early next week. Low temps on Monday morning drop into the 10-20 degree range for most. Tuesday features even colder temps from 5-15 degrees.

95/Castillo

Previous discussion: (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1203 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026

Rain will continue with a stalled front over Central Alabama today into Friday, before finally pushing through toward the Gulf Coast during the day Friday. Some patchy fog is possible across the northwestern counties overnight into this morning if rain subsides.

Models now indicate that an upper-level cutoff low meandering off the coast of California will open up into a trough by Saturday and eject ENE from Baja California to Texas by Sunday morning. A surface low is forecast to form in advance of the trough along the Texas coast and move NE into Alabama by Sunday. As of this forecast update, there is decent agreement in the modeling for the low to track very close to the Birmingham metro area, with a good warm sector south of the low across Central and South Alabama. Some data indicates temperatures Sunday morning into the afternoon may briefly reach the 60s and even low 70s across southern portions of Central Alabama and further southward. This is shown in the latest runs of several models, including the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, 12km NAM, and RRFS. A few of these models explicitly bring 60s to near or just south of the Birmingham metro Sunday morning, depending on the exact track of the low pressure center. Thunder has been introduced into the forecast Sunday morning and afternoon across the southern counties in Central Alabama. Although no definitive severe threat exists at this time, Sunday morning will bear watching as models indicate 500-700 J/kg SBCAPE and modest shear in the warm sector.

Back to the north, our northern counties do remain under a Winter Storm Watch beginning Friday at 6 PM and currently in effect through 6 PM Sunday. Precipitation is likely to begin across the northwestern counties early Saturday morning. Models still indicate potential for this to be freezing rain or sleet. However, as several model runs have shown more of a warm nose across North Alabama ahead of the low, even the northwestern counties may warm above freezing Saturday night into Sunday morning, potentially becoming all rain with mid 30s. Slight fluctuations in the forecast from this point forward will mean differences in any ice accumulation vs. periods of rain. Highest ice potential is currently over Marion, Winston, and northern Lamar counties. The current forecast also shows the potential for cold air damming over Georgia to potentially affect northeastern Central Alabama. Warm air advection may at first have a tough time overcoming the wedge to the east. Thus, freezing rain and ice accumulation may be possible over counties such as Etowah, Cherokee, Cleburne, and northeastern Calhoun Saturday night into early Sunday before temps finally do rise above freezing. This is currently shown in the forecast, but any ice potential is highly dependent on surface temperatures. If we see temps tick up from the current forecast of 30-31 to 33-35, this will significantly reduce the chance of any ice accumulation. No changes will be made to the winter products at this time, but an expansion into Calhoun and Cleburne is not out of the question as the event gets closer.

Now, as the low exits the area, taking the warm sector and any thunderstorms into Georgia, temperatures will drop aggressively Sunday afternoon and evening, beginning across the northwest. Any lingering precipitation will turn back into freezing rain and then potentially end as snow showers as the entire vertical column falls below freezing. The GFS is currently more robust with leftover moisture than the ECMWF, with more potential for additional wintry precip accumulation by Sunday evening. The official forecast does have the chance for additional ice accumulation Sunday afternoon and evening, with light snow amounts of a half inch or less across the northern/northwestern counties.

All that is to say that we may be looking at drastically different weather conditions on Sunday across our forecast area from northwest to southeast.

Everyone will finally get in on the cold Sunday night, with lows expected to drop into the teens across northern and central areas and 20s across the southeast. Northern areas may stay below freezing Monday before the entire area gets even colder Monday night, with area-wide teens likely and single digits possible north of I-20. A slow moderation of temperatures is expected into midweek.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026

Cloudy skies with rain showers will persist through the evening at AUO. Meanwhile, low ceilings will redevelop in the north overnight, while the south remains low. Expect some gradual improvement to cloud base heights as we move toward midday Friday, though skies will remain BKN to OVC with rain chances increasing again late Friday night into Saturday.

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FIRE WEATHER

A wet pattern begins tonight and continues through the weekend. Wintry precipitation is expected this weekend for the northern parts of the area. Drier conditions expected early next week with min RHs back into the 30-40% range by Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 38 49 30 45 / 30 10 10 60 Anniston 40 50 33 47 / 50 20 10 60 Birmingham 42 49 34 49 / 30 10 10 60 Tuscaloosa 41 51 33 49 / 20 10 10 70 Calera 42 54 33 52 / 40 10 10 60 Auburn 47 58 41 50 / 60 30 10 40 Montgomery 49 59 41 59 / 50 30 10 40 Troy 49 62 43 62 / 40 40 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for the following counties: Calhoun-Cleburne.