textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 205 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

- Thunderstorms: A brief pattern shift will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the weekend. Some of this rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently expanding across the region, as multiple upper-level features keep the region disturbed. Precipitable water values are also high, meaning that these storms will remain very efficient rainfall producers. Rainfall rates with some of the stronger afternoon thunderstorms will be moderate to heavy at times, with most locations generally seeing less than an inch of rainfall. However, given the aforementioned heavy rainfall rates, locally heavier amounts are expected in a few isolated spots. Severe weather and flooding are not expected through the weekend, and these showers and thunderstorms are nothing more than some much needed rainfall.

Unfortunately, upper-level ridging will quickly begin to rebuild by Sunday, with rain chances dropping dramatically. While there will still be a low chance (<30%) for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, this activity will be the scattered, diurnally driven activity we've seen for the last few weeks. Afternoon high temperatures will quickly rebound as well, with highs climbing into the low and mid-90s by Monday. This will essentially be the copy/paste forecast for the rest of the week, as the apex of the ridge will remain over the Tennessee River Valley into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will remain ongoing for most of the next 24-hours, as a series of disturbances works through the region. All terminals will carry TSRA at various times, with quick drops in VIS expected under heavy rainfall rates. Low CIGs should also return past 12/06z, with widespread IFR/LIFR conditions anticipated through 12/16z.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at TCL due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. Rain chances will increase for Friday and into this weekend. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up during next week if significant rainfall does not occur over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 88 70 92 / 60 60 30 20 Anniston 71 86 71 90 / 60 60 20 20 Birmingham 71 88 72 92 / 50 60 30 20 Tuscaloosa 71 90 72 95 / 30 70 20 10 Calera 71 88 71 92 / 50 60 20 20 Auburn 71 87 72 90 / 60 80 40 20 Montgomery 71 90 72 93 / 70 70 30 20 Troy 70 91 70 93 / 40 70 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.