textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 732 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026

- Tropical: Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly to the northwest then west across the Northern Gulf Coast through this week. At this time, no significant impacts are expected for Central Alabama.

- Heat: A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday, as heat index values in the afternoon will range between 103 and 106 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026

While Tropical Storm Bertha remains the most notable weather system near the state, it will actually have the least amount of impact across the region over the next seven days. TS Bertha will continue to slowly trek to the NW today, before taking a more western track come Wednesday morning. During this time, only scattered shower activity is expected across the region, as the outer bands from TS Bertha work inland. During this same time, a deep trough and cold front will slowly start dropping south through the Great Lakes, working into the region sometime Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This front will quickly become separated from the main trough to the north, stalling somewhere across the state into the weekend. Not only will this cold front cool things down a few degrees, but it will also be the catalyst for more organized rain activity heading into the weekend.

Until this trough and cold front break this hot streak we've been experiencing, afternoon highs today and tomorrow will continue to range in the low to mid-90s. Given the high humidity, this will keep heat index values above 105 degrees for many locations, with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect for today. The main axis of heat seems to shift slightly Southwest into Wednesday, so a new Heat Advisory will go into effect Wednesday morning to better capture this shift in heat index values. Unfortunately, the break in temperatures this weekend appears short-lived, as afternoon highs climb once more by the start of the new workweek under a building ridge to our west.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026

Only a few lingering showers are expected over the next couple of hours. I only needed a PROB30 at EET to account for this. Otherwise, a few MVFR cigs may occur in the morning between roughly 13-17z. More scattered afternoon convection is expected, with the best chances south. Mentions during the afternoon are at EET, MGM, and AUO where the best moisture will be present.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Through this weekend, rain will remain in the forecast with MinRH values staying above 50 percent. Given the warm and humid air mass, and continued chances for rain, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 93 73 89 / 10 30 60 70 Anniston 74 92 73 89 / 10 30 40 70 Birmingham 75 93 75 90 / 10 20 40 60 Tuscaloosa 76 94 75 91 / 10 20 30 60 Calera 74 96 74 93 / 20 30 30 60 Auburn 75 89 75 89 / 10 40 20 60 Montgomery 75 93 75 92 / 10 40 20 60 Troy 74 90 73 90 / 20 50 20 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Blount-Etowah-Marion-St. Clair-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Bibb-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Pickens- Shelby-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Chilton-Dallas-Lowndes-Marengo-Perry.