textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026

- A medium chance for showers are forecast overnight through Saturday morning with better potential south.

- A medium chance for below average temperatures with dry conditions returning Sunday through the early in the day on Tuesday.

- A low to medium chance for showers and some thunderstorm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday as another storm system moves into the area.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026

A zonal flow pattern will persist over the area through the rest of the work week and into the first half of the weekend while several disturbances aloft move east over the area. A stationary front will remain to our south across the Northern Gulf Coast, resulting in showers being most likely with low chances for thunderstorm activity only across the southern portion of the area from late Friday night into early Saturday.

A longwave trough in the northern stream will move southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions during the day on Saturday with surface high pressure building into the area during the afternoon and evening hours with drier and cooler conditions forecast with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

The pattern aloft will deamplify to start the next work week with near zonal flow expected. Dry conditions will persist through Monday night while temperatures moderate through midweek with highs returning to near 80 and overnight lows in the 60s by Wednesday. An upper low will move east over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday and approach from the west while the northern stream becomes more amplified again with a longwave trough digging southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions on Thursday. Expect increasing clouds with a low to medium chance for showers and some thunderstorm activity during the day Tuesday and persisting through Thursday.

05

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026

Scattered light showers continue to move through the southern half of Central Alabama this morning. This is expected to continue but become more widespread generally after 00z this evening. Sites are expected to remain VFR until the more moderate showers build in this evening, then becoming MVFR to IFR. Latest trends in guidance have held the IFR ceilings south of BHM, but maintain that in the forecast for the remainder sites as we approach 06z. From 06z-12z, rain showers will spread across much of the area leading to periods of lowered visibility in the heavier showers. The front is expected to finally move to the east late in the period, but this may not occur until just after 12z.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Medium chances for showers with best potential across the southern portion of the area is forecast overnight through Saturday. Drier conditions return again for Sunday through Tuesday with RH minimums in the mid to upper 30 percent range by Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon. The next storm system will return Tuesday night into Wednesday with low to medium chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 47 67 40 / 20 80 30 0 Anniston 70 48 66 42 / 30 90 40 0 Birmingham 70 50 67 45 / 40 90 30 0 Tuscaloosa 68 49 70 44 / 60 90 20 0 Calera 70 49 69 44 / 50 90 30 0 Auburn 69 52 66 46 / 70 100 70 0 Montgomery 67 51 68 43 / 80 100 50 0 Troy 67 50 67 43 / 80 100 60 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.