textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place this week with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches are forecast this week, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

Only light shower activity if any is present on the radar at this hour across the southern counties of Central Alabama. There is a medium chance for another wave of light to moderate showers to develop and move into the area from the west/southwest during the pre-dawn hours. The best chances will be in the southern half of the CWA. This evening we continue to have a stalled surface boundary generally north of the I-20 corridor. This boundary may meander a little on Tuesday before fizzling out Tuesday evening. South of this boundary will be the focus for light to moderate rain showers (and a few embedded thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon). We could see 0.5 inch to maybe 2 inches on Tuesday. While some isolated higher amounts would allow for minor flooding, our current thinking is that Tuesday's event will help to set the stage to saturate soils for Thursday. By Wednesday the stalled boundary should fizzle out. This will allow for tropical moisture to increase across the state. To add to the mix, we are closely watching the low and potential formation of a tropical feature over the gulf toward mid week. Regardless, the potential for heavy rain for Thursday and Friday and lingering activity into this weekend is increasing. Overall QPF continues to show roughly 4 to 7 inches storm totals by the end of our forecast, with a few locally higher amounts. As we get closer to mid week, a flood watch will likely be necessary.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

Low clouds and rain are currently across much of the region, with all terminals experiencing reduced flight categories for most of the day. Thunderstorms are possible in the far south this late afternoon; however, confidence was only high enough to include a mention in the AFD and not in the TAFs. The primary concern will be IFR ceilings and visibility caused by persistent rainfall and drizzle. Additionally, IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to persist behind the rain after 17/03z. A Prob30 remains for the south, where rainfall is expected to be most concentrated.

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FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as a front stalls across the region. We will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 67 87 73 83 / 30 20 40 90 Anniston 68 86 73 82 / 40 40 40 90 Birmingham 68 87 73 83 / 30 40 50 90 Tuscaloosa 69 87 74 83 / 30 40 60 90 Calera 68 87 73 81 / 40 50 50 90 Auburn 70 83 73 81 / 70 70 40 100 Montgomery 70 84 73 82 / 60 60 50 100 Troy 69 83 73 82 / 70 70 50 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.