textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms remain in the forecast through the weekend. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher possible.

- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and persist into the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1121 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

In general, the overall thinking and synoptic setup with the forecast through the weekend remains unchanged. Our two main features remain the stalled front to the north, and the disturbance moving inland from the Gulf. Even 36-hours out, there are still question marks as to the strength of the Gulf disturbance, and the position of the stalled front. At this time, it still looks like the front has stalled north of where it was previously expected to. On the other side of the coin however, it looks like this disturbance will move inland slightly more organized than previously anticipated. Guidance has also not done a good job capturing the scope of diurnally/outflow driven showers and storms given these high PWAT values. Because of that, even though rainfall amounts may be slightly overdone with the main show on Sunday, some of the rainfall on Friday and Saturday may help make up for this deficit.

The bulk of the rainfall still looks to fall on Sunday, as the cold front starts to drop south through the region. At this time, the highest rainfall amounts look to fall south of I-20, with the highest amounts falling closer to I-85 near the apex of this Gulf disturbance. Rainfall amounts between I-20 and I-85 will generally be between 1-2 inches, with areas along and south of I- 85 pushing 2-3 inches. It's also worth noting that the NAM suite of models are consistently highlighting locally heavy pockets of 5+ inches, but the only thing consistent here are the values. The location of these amounts varies from run to run, with the only consistent thing being the amounts. Given the aforementioned high PWAT values, local amounts like this are certainly not out of the question.

By Tuesday morning, a deep trough moving through the Midwest will have pushed the stalled cold front through the region. This will usher in much more seasonable temperatures through next week, with high temperatures ranging in the upper-70s and low-80s.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

We are in a small lull in the convective activity now through late morning. Until then, we have some stratus that has developed. Some MVFR cigs are scattered across C AL along with some lower LIFR cigs near AUO. A few reduced MVFR VIS may occur as well now through 14-16z. With a stalled frontal boundary across the NRN third of AL, showers will develop during the day becoming more widespread tonight. TS threat is not zero, but is too low to mention ATTM. Will keep an eye on any potential for TS for any needed amendments. Winds should remain light/variable generally through the forecast.

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FIRE WEATHER

Southerly flow increases through the weekend, bringing higher rain chances. Broadly, the area will see around 1 inch of rain by Sunday night. Chances of receiving 2 inches or more drop to 30- 50% across the north and 60-80% in the south, while probabilities for exceeding 3 inches remain lower at 10-20% in the north and 30- 40% in the south. Overall, there is roughly an 80% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rainfall across Central Alabama, with lower probabilities for higher totals. Drier and cooler air returns on Tuesday and persists through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 88 67 78 63 / 40 80 90 40 Anniston 88 68 77 65 / 40 60 100 50 Birmingham 88 68 77 64 / 40 70 100 40 Tuscaloosa 92 68 80 65 / 30 70 100 30 Calera 89 68 77 66 / 40 70 100 40 Auburn 86 69 75 67 / 40 70 100 80 Montgomery 88 70 77 67 / 50 80 100 70 Troy 87 68 77 67 / 60 80 100 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.