textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

- A Level 1/5 Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place Sunday afternoon/evening across southern portions of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary threats.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern counties of Central Alabama. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Calhoun and Cleburne counties. The potential exists for light accumulations of ice or snow in these locations.

- Very cold air arrives late Sunday into early next week. Cold weather hazards will be needed for Sunday night through Tuesday as lows reach the teens and single digits. Wind chills are forecast to range from below zero across northwest counties to the lower teens in the southeast Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

Today's forecast update for the next 48 hours remains very much status quo from the overnight shift, except for minor tweaks in the hourly grids. First, the cold front that is bringing the first round of arctic air southward has reached the I-20/59 corridor. Colder and drier air will continue to advect southward through the afternoon with perhaps a few peeks of sunshine across the U.S. 278 corridor. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly cloudy with temperatures expected to drop down into the 20s across our far northwest counties after midnight tonight. As precipitation moves in from the west, we'll continue to monitor for freezing rain potential across Marion, Winston, Lamar, Fayette, and Walker Counties after 6am Saturday morning.

We'll then become "sandwiched" in between cold air to our northwest where an ice storm may be brewing and cold air over northern Georgia due to a CAD wedge as we go through the day on Saturday through Saturday night. Hourly temperatures are still expected to rise above freezing areawide during the day on Saturday with a warm-sector surge along the I-65 corridor overnight Saturday through Sunday morning. During this time, we'll need to closely watch the progression of the CAD wedge over northern Georgia. Some of the 12z CAMs today are showing the potential for freezing temperatures to push as far west as Cherokee, Cleburne, Calhoun, and Etowah counties which would increase freezing rain potential. However, considerable uncertainty still exists among other guidance as to the duration of the freezing temperatures as well as the areal extent. As a result, our Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Watch counties remain as- is for now. Stay tuned for the latest updates, as CAD wedges are very challenging in terms of the depth and overall extent among model guidance.

In the meantime, heavy rainfall will also be a concern with potential amounts of 2 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. Localized flooding will be possible with rises anticipated on area drainage basins. Highest rainfall totals will remain across the northern half of Central Alabama. If that wasn't enough, severe chances also remain in the forecast Sunday afternoon with some guidance coming in a little more unstable and a stronger overall surface low moving across southwestern Alabama. If the surface low strengthens it would bring in a more unstable warm sector plus increase available wind shear. CAMs are showing a potential for a QLCS to develop and move across the I-85 corridor Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening, and will be something for us to closely monitor.

Following passage of the cold front and perhaps some lingering light wintry precipitation due to wrap-around moisture late Sunday night, the deep freeze will begin. Cold weather hazards will be needed Monday morning, as wind chills are forecast to drop below zero across far northwest counties to the lower teens in the far southeast. Our coldest morning will be on Tuesday, with temperatures of 5 degrees or below across northwest counties to the teens elsewhere. Temperatures will remain below normal through the middle of the upcoming week.

56/GDG

Previous discussion: (Through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

Central Alabama will be on the southern periphery of a winter storm this weekend, with a slight chance for minor ice or snow accumulation across northern counties from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Enough warm air should be present across Central Alabama to make the primary precipitation type be rain. However, ice accumulation is possible Saturday across far northwestern Central Alabama, primarily Marion County. An ice storm is likely to unfold from Central MS into West/Middle TN, just staying outside our Central Alabama counties. Accumulation amounts in Marion and other northwestern counties will be generally less than a quarter inch. There is also a low chance for freezing rain across northeastern Central Alabama Saturday night associated with a cold air wedge over Georgia. The extent of cold enough air far enough west into Alabama remains in question, and more elevated areas of Cherokee, Etowah, Calhoun, and Cleburne counties will see a better chance at a window of ice accumulation Saturday night before warm air advection warms the area well above freezing on Sunday morning.

A deepening surface low will track into Alabama and pass close to the Birmingham metro area Sunday morning. This will result in most, if not all, of Central Alabama being above freezing. A decent warm sector will develop south of the low as a warm front lifts north toward I-20, with 60s and possibly even low 70s across our central and southern counties. Modest instability will be present, on the order of 500-700 J/kg SBCAPE, with enough shear to pose a severe weather risk across southern areas such as Selma, Montgomery, Auburn, and Troy. These storms will form a broken line ahead of a cold front that will pose a risk for damaging wind and tornadoes before exiting into Georgia Sunday afternoon/evening. A Level 1 Marginal Risk has been introduced for Sunday across the southern tier of counties.

Elsewhere, ongoing rain across the northern half of the area may pose a few flooding concerns, as 2-4" of rain is currently forecast to fall across a large portion of Central Alabama from Saturday into Sunday. This will warrant close attention over the next 24-36 hours to see if a Flood Watch may become necessary.

Sunday evening, as the front sweeps through and the whiplash warmup and cooldown of Sunday continues to take shape, any lingering moisture behind the front may result in another brief period of freezing rain followed by light snow showers. This isn't a "definite" and questions remain on if and how much moisture may be left over. The Winter Weather Advisory currently goes through 6 PM Sunday, after which most precipitation will have moved eastward into Georgia. Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee counties were upgraded into the advisory from the Winter Storm Watch, leaving Calhoun and Cleburne still in the watch for now. Forecast confidence remains quite low in these counties receiving much at all in the form of wintry precipitation. However, there is certainly the potential for brief periods of wintry precip across parts of these counties Saturday night (cold air wedge) and Sunday evening (leftover moisture behind the front).

Temperatures will drop sharply Sunday evening, getting into the teens or low 20s for areas northwest of I-85 overnight. On Monday, most areas north of I-20 are forecast to remain below freezing before getting even colder Monday night, with teens across the entire area except for single digits across northern counties. Temperatures/wind chill will likely hit Cold Weather Advisory criteria at least across northern and central counties Monday morning with a brisk northwest wind and again Tuesday morning in part of the area.

Some model runs have hinted at additional winter weather during the next week. As of now, not enough consistent model support exists for introduction into the forecast, but that is of course subject to change over the next few days.

12

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions remain across Central AL as a surface front moves southward across the area. Lower clouds will eventually mix out to mostly VFR category by this afternoon with surface winds increasing from the north through the afternoon hours. A few gusts up to 15 knots can't be ruled out. Lower stratus clouds are expected to return for at least southern terminals overnight tonight through Saturday morning.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

A wet pattern continues through the weekend. Wintry precipitation is expected this weekend for the northern parts of the area. Drier conditions expected early next week, with min RHs back into the 25- 40% range by Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 49 29 47 37 / 0 10 70 100 Anniston 51 32 48 40 / 10 0 60 100 Birmingham 50 33 48 43 / 0 10 70 100 Tuscaloosa 52 32 48 43 / 0 10 90 100 Calera 54 32 52 44 / 0 0 70 100 Auburn 59 40 51 46 / 20 10 30 90 Montgomery 61 40 58 51 / 10 0 50 90 Troy 64 42 61 55 / 10 0 30 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through late tonight for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah- Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-Lamar- Marion-Walker-Winston.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for the following counties: Calhoun-Cleburne.