textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026

- There is a medium to high chance some communities across Central Alabama will see their first 90 degree day by early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026

The bulk of the forecast the next seven days will predominantly be dictated by various stages of ridging, both at the surface and aloft. A stout surface ridge will begin to build across the region through the weekend, keeping rain chances low and afternoon highs slowly rising. During this time, upper-level ridging will begin to build in off the east coast, aiding in that aforementioned climb in temperatures. By early next week, more than a few locations will be looking at highs in the upper-80s, with medium confidence in our first 90 degree days for some locations.

Off to our west however, a very stout longwave trough will begin to take shape over the central and upper-plains, getting sandwiched between the ridge to the east. For us locally, this trough won't have any major impact on our weather until the middle of next week at least. Here, a deep low pressure and cold front will finally begin to work east, pivoting into the Great Lakes region. Given this far north track, very little is anticipated from a rainfall standpoint for us, but rain chances will begin to increase as this trough and cold front move close enough to affect the region. Unfortunately, widespread rainfall doesn't look likely, with the prospects of widespread rain very limited even into the 7-10 day extended period.

/44/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026

Regional high pressure yields high confidence for VFR conditions over the next 24-hours.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will remain in the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range through the weekend, as winds begin to shift to the south. Even as moisture begins to work back into the region, MinRH values will only rebound into the low 40-50% range into the middle of the next week. While rain chances return to the forecast by Wednesday, confidence is low on overall coverage and amounts. Given ongoing drought, fire weather concerns will likely increase into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 43 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 46 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 50 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 49 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 52 79 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 49 81 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 49 81 54 86 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.