textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026

- Temperatures this week will be warmer than typical for early March with highs and lows as much as 15-20 degrees above normal.

- Periodic opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms return from Thursday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1100 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026

Our current satellite picture is mostly clear across C AL ATTM with clouds in all directions around us. That will change over the next few hours as low level moisture by way of stratus will develop and move into the area from the S part of AL and from the E from GA. To our N, we have a stalled surface boundary except for a little wedge that has dipped into the NE counties. Unfortunately, this boundary is expected to pull back to the NWD on Tue with C AL staying in the warm, well above normal, but still rain free airmass for the next couple of days. In the upper levels, we have a flat ridge across Mexico and EWD across into the Gulf. This will change as a shortwave pushes EWD out of the Rockies and across the Plains as a stronger low digs in the WRN US. This will push our upper ridge to over FL and into the WRN Atlantic to create SW upper flow into AL by Thu. We should have a few ripples traversing around the shortwave through the SW flow for a small chance of showers/tstorms by Thu afternoon and again for Fri afternoon. Overall moisture across AL continues to increase into the weekend as the upper low digs across the W Coast of the US and eject out bits of energy into the flow into AL to help generate off/on convection over the weekend with heating. Temperatures will remain well above normal with no significant change in airmass expected through the weekend.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1138 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals a shortwave pushing across the TN Valley. This feature has been driving a large batch of showers across Northern AL and TN. Weak ridging and dry air in place will keep us dry for the most part. With that said, wouldn't be surprised to see a rogue showers across our northern tier of counties. Any showers that develop would have to overcome a large amount of dry air in place at the lower levels so would expect any returns on the KBMX to be virga initially. Otherwise, dry conditions persist for the next few days.

Opted to nudge high temperatures down a handful of degrees across the eastern half of the area tomorrow as the wedge begins to work in. We could see a similar setup on Wednesday but it doesn't look to be as strong. Otherwise, we will add on a few degrees every day with high temperatures climbing into the mid 80s by the weekend. Several record high temperatures will be in jeopardy through the week (See the climate section below for more details).

Rain chances will return to the forecast late this work week and into the weekend as a stout upper level shortwave ejects across the Plains while pulling some upper level energy through the region. At this time, there doesn't look to be too much forcing available at the surface as a frontal boundary stalls to our north.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites at this hour, but MVFR ceilings are visible on night fog satellite imagery over Georgia and along the Gulf Coast near Mobile. These low ceilings will advect into Central Alabama through the night with reductions in flight criteria expected first at AUO and TCL then the remaining sites shortly after. Low clouds will persist after sunrise, but expect ceilings to rise and VFR conditions to return by 17-18Z. Winds will stay slightly elevated tonight around 4-8 kts from the southeast with some gusts of 15-18 kts possible during the afternoon.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Rain free but not quite as dry conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with min RHs expected to fall into 40-50% range. Moisture will slowly increase through the week. Low probability rain chances return to the forecast on Thursday with increased chances over the weekend.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1100 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026

March 4: KBHM: 84/1976 KEET: 84/2022 KTCL: 83/1976 KMGM: 85/2022

March 5: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 83/2022 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 85/1989

March 6: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 81/2023 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 86/2022

March 7: KBHM: 84/1956 KEET: 83/2023 KANB: 85/1974 KTCL: 85/2023 KMGM: 87/2023

March 8: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 81/2000 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1992 KMGM: 84/1951

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 50 74 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 52 74 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 55 76 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 54 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 53 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 55 74 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 53 77 53 81 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.