textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026

- Heavy Rain: A stalled cold front combined with gulf moisture will bring potential for heavy rainfall this weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect for northern portions of Central Alabama through 7 PM today.

- Heat: Intense heat returns early this week. Expect temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 from Monday through mid week, with heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026

By later this morning, the stalled cold front will have finally pulled north, exiting the region. However, that won't be an end to our rain chances on Saturday. Another shortwave is expected to ride south along the trough still overhead, allowing for one more organized shot at shower and thunderstorm chances through today. These rain chances will begin to taper off into Sunday, becoming a bit more scattered by the morning hours, completely decreasing in coverage into the afternoon and evening hours.

By Monday, a significant pattern shift is still expected to take place, as a stout upper-level ridge works into the region via the Plains. High temperatures on Monday will immediately climb into the low to mid-90s, before climbing again on Tuesday into the mid to upper-90s. While guidance remains bullish on some pockets of triple-digits, confidence here is low given how much rainfall we've recently received. The ridge will slightly retrograde on Wednesday, but that will only allow for a slight drop in afternoon highs. Anticipated low to mid-90s each day headed into next weekend.

/44/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026

Currently, a complex of showers with embedded storms is moving southward into Central Alabama. The complex is expected to hold together, impacting at least the northern half of the area through the afternoon. Expect impacts at EET, BHM, and TCL between 19Z and 23Z, with predominant showers and a TEMPO for TSRA. Confidence decreases as the activity moves toward MGM and AUO; however, a TEMPO for storms will be included after 22Z through 01Z-02Z. A second complex may develop overnight, impacting TAF locations across the north, necessitating a PROB30 for SHRA. At this time, thunderstorm probabilities remain too low to mention in the PROB30 groups.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 91 72 92 / 60 60 20 20 Anniston 73 89 73 91 / 60 60 20 20 Birmingham 74 91 75 94 / 60 60 20 20 Tuscaloosa 75 92 75 94 / 60 60 20 20 Calera 74 92 75 95 / 70 60 20 20 Auburn 75 89 75 92 / 70 60 20 20 Montgomery 75 93 75 95 / 60 60 20 20 Troy 74 92 74 94 / 40 30 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson-St. Clair-Walker-Winston.