textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts possible through Saturday.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 to 2, out of 5, risk for severe weather through tonight. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes. The threat is mainly across southeastern Alabama.

- There is also a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Friday as the cold front works south into the area. The main threat will be damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

Widespread rainfall is occurring across much of the area this afternoon and will continue through the rest of the afternoon. The remnants of Arthur should exit eastward later this evening. Until then we will continue to have some gusty winds in any stronger convection bands. Also, weak spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out. While lightning coverage is lower, isolated embedded thunderstorms remain possible.

High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves into the area and stalls. This will help to modify the tropical airmass with more thunder expected. A few marginally severe storms, with winds the main concern, may occur as well with just frontal forcing to assist. The front is expected to stall somewhere across the midsection of the area on Saturday. Guidance still indicates higher QPF as a result of rain chances sticking around for the weekend. Our flood watch may need to be extended into Saturday if this trend continues. By Sunday, weak upper flow will allow for the stalled boundary to push back northward with yet again more onshore flow. Temperatures will slowly creep back up, and zonal upper flow disturbances enhanced by daytime heating will contribute to diurnal convection for Sunday into Monday. Extended guidance has a low to medium chance of yet another front moving into the Deep South by the end of the extended Tuesday into Wednesday. This system too has a decent chance of stalling with zonal to west-northwest upper flow to only support meager advancement across Alabama by the middle of next week, and it will keep rain chances around.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

The messy day for TAFs continue across all of Central Alabama. Tried to time out some of the convective patterns and wind increases with tempo wording through next 6 hours. Widespread rain end from west to east after 00z, with an additional round of showers and perhaps a few storms at MGM and AUO, so included prob30s here. Outside of the convection, MVFR ceilings are already in place across all terminals with the exception of AUO where IFR is prevailing. MVFR will persist through the day with all sites dropping to IFR overnight. Ceilings will be slow to improve Friday morning. Southerly winds will gradually increase with gusts from 20-25 knots likely this afternoon.

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FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 86 65 85 / 70 40 10 30 Anniston 71 85 67 85 / 90 60 20 40 Birmingham 70 86 68 85 / 70 60 20 60 Tuscaloosa 72 86 71 85 / 50 70 50 70 Calera 71 88 69 87 / 70 70 40 70 Auburn 71 83 71 85 / 100 70 50 60 Montgomery 71 84 71 84 / 100 80 60 80 Troy 71 84 71 85 / 100 80 70 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.