textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026

- Medium chances for patchy fog development tonight, especially near bodies of water.

- High temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures.

- Cooler temperatures are expected by next Saturday, but how much cooler remains uncertain. Little to no precipitation is expected with this cold front.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026

Today through Wednesday.

Broad mid to upper-level ridging presently centered over the Northwest Gulf will gradually migrate northeast to become centered across Louisiana and Southern Mississippi by early in the day on Wednesday. Toward the surface, elongated surface high pressure currently extends from across the Northern Gulf northeast into Eastern Tennessee. Surface high pressure will retain its elongated state as it becomes positioned from across the Northern Gulf Coast northeast across Georgia and the Carolinas through midweek. Winds will remain generally from the west to Northwest from 5-10 mph during the day with near calm winds overnight. High temperatures will increase each day with the highest values west by Wednesday with highs from the upper 80s east to the low 90s across the western counties. These readings may rival the record high temperatures provided in the Climate section of this discussion. Low temperatures will warm the most across the west with readings from the upper 50s east to the low 60s west Wednesday morning.

Thursday through Sunday.

Mid-level ridging will gradually become centered further east of the area through late week, becoming centered offshore of the Southeast Atlantic Coast on Friday. A closed low will dig south over the Western States before shearing out on Thursday over Colorado before a more potent through dives southeast out of Canada across the Northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. This longwave trough will swing over the Great Lakes Region on Friday while supporting a surface cold front that will swiftly move southeast across the Mid-South Region Friday with the front moving into the state by Saturday morning. Limited return flow ahead of the front will limit moisture recovery from the presently dry airmass and little in the way of upper-level support locally as the brunt of the trough moves over the Northeast portion of the country will result in very low rain chances. The front is expected to drop temperatures significantly with highs from the upper 60s far north and northeast to readings in the upper 70s south and southwest Saturday and Sunday while lows will fall into the upper 40s north to the upper 50s far southeast Saturday morning followed by lows in the mid 40s all but far south with readings in the low 50s on Sunday morning this upcoming weekend.

05

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the region through the next 24 hours as high pressure builds into the Southeastern CONUS.WInds are expected to be generally light to calm overnight, increasing to 4-6kts during the day out of the west to northwest. There could be some patchy river fog at TCL and MGM for a few hour before sunrise, but guidance suggests the probability is much lower than last night, so I will not include it in this forecast cycle.

Note: Will continue with AMD NOT SKED at AUO due to missing observational data.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions are expected to be in place for much of the upcoming week. MinRHs will drop into the mid 30-40% range each afternoon as high temperatures reach the upper 80s with the dry air mass. However, with the center of the high overhead, we're expecting mostly light to calm winds for the next several days.

CLIMATE

Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Mon Oct. 12: KBHM: 91/1963 KEET: 86/2014 KANB: 88/1963 KTCL: 92/1963 KMGM: 91/2017

Tue Oct. 13: KBHM: 89/1953 KEET: 89/2017 KANB: 90/1954 KTCL: 90/1963

Wed Oct. 14: KBHM: 89/1984 KEET: 89/2016 KANB: 88/1975 KTCL: 90/1962 KMGM: 91/1883

Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881

Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 61 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 91 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 59 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 59 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.