textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026

- There is a low (level 1 out of 5) Marginal risk for severe storms Friday night through Saturday. Quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. - Above normal temperatures continue into the first half of the weekend.

- Increased rain chances are expected for the end of the work week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening reveals upper level ridging retreating to the southeast as an upper trough prepares to eject out of the Four Corners region and slide across the Plains. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed parked across Texas and Arkansas. Ahead of this boundary, low level moisture will continue to increase across the state. This will likely lead to patchy fog once again tomorrow morning. Latest RAP guidance supports this as it hints at a few pockets of condensation pressure deficits down to the 5-10mb range through sunrise. Any fog that does develop likely won't last too long past sunrise as southwesterly winds begin to pick up. While chances are low, wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated light showers through the day Thursday as increased isentropic lift combines with several H85-H7 impulses that rotate through the region.

The aforementioned cold front begins to head our way Thursday night into Friday morning. Rain chances ramp up as we close out the work week as this boundary runs into a healthy plume of Gulf moisture. The front eventually stalls out across the CWA and lingers through most of the weekend. As a result, we could see a few pockets of heavier rainfall as low level moisture convergence axis becomes established. With that said, our warm cloud depth doesn't look too impressive so would expect much of this activity to be relatively light. Overall, rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" can be expected through the weekend. Lastly, we will need to monitor for a few stronger storms Friday night and Saturday as a corridor of CAPE values from 400-700 J/kg spreads across the southern half of the state. However, we will be lacking upper level support that far south.

By Sunday, another upper trough digs south across the TN Valley. An associated surface high pressure will provide enough of a nudge to push the stalled boundary south of the area. Cooler and drier conditions are in store in the wake of the boundary. Monday and Tuesday mornings are looking pretty chilly with lows in the 20s and 30s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026

Warm air advection across the area is producing low, MVFR ceilings, and widely isolated pockets of DZ. Ceilings will improve by midday with VFR conditions expected through the afternoon. Winds will increase during the day as the pressure gradient becomes enhanced ahead of an approaching weather system and front. Winds will remain elevated overnight, but gusts should decrease a touch. -SHRA will be possible at all sites towards the end of this TAF period as the front begins to move into the area. Coverage does not look widespread, but confidence was high enough to mention in this TAF issuance. Low ceilings will also redevelop after 06Z with MVFR flight conditions expected at all sites.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Increased moisture on Thursday will help keep min RH values in the 50-60% range. We will need to keep a close eye on Friday. As a cold front stalls across the state, much drier air will filter into the northern half of the area. Min RHs on Friday will drop down to near 30% across our northern areas. At this time, winds look to remain light enough to negate fire weather concerns. RHs rebound back into the 50-70% range on Saturday. The front finally pushes through on Sunday with much drier air spreading across the state. Min RH values will fall into the 20-30% range daily Sunday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 58 75 52 / 20 80 20 70 Anniston 78 60 75 56 / 20 70 40 70 Birmingham 77 60 75 57 / 20 70 30 80 Tuscaloosa 80 60 75 57 / 10 60 20 80 Calera 79 60 76 58 / 20 70 30 80 Auburn 78 65 76 63 / 30 60 60 70 Montgomery 81 65 78 64 / 10 60 60 70 Troy 81 65 80 64 / 20 50 70 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.