textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1036 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

- A daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms are expected through next week.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

The combination of increased moisture, a stalling frontal boundary, and a H5 shortwave traversing the region has led to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening. This will be the trend over the next several days as the stalled front meanders across the southeast as a series of shortwaves rotate through the southwesterly flow aloft. Each day will feature diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. The majority of this activity will be pulse-like storms as shear profiles are not too impressive. Greatest chances each day will be across our northern areas where low level moisture convergence will be maximized along the stalled boundary. The boundary retreats back to the north over the weekend, leaving a plume of moist air in place across the region. Bouts of H5 energy will continue to stream across the southeast, leading to increased chances for showers and storms daily through early next week. Select forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated atmospheric column and a deep warm cloud depth. This would help promote periods of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts have trended up recently with 2-3.5" forecast across our northwest areas. Areas back to our southeast will see around 1" or less. With that said, pockets of higher amounts are likely, especially if these storms turn into efficient rainfall producers. Latest LREF guidance suggests a moderate (40-60%) chance for amounts over 3" and low (20-30%) chance for amounts over 4".

Increased cloud cover will knock a few degrees off our highs for the rest of the week with temperatures generally settling into the mid 80s daily. Those across our southeastern areas will remain near 90. Lows look to fall into the mid 60s for most. Muggy and warm conditions will lead to a minor to moderate heat risk daily across Central Alabama. This would primarily affect those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the region through the evening hours. MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis are likely with this activity. Outside of this convection, VFR conditions will prevail. MVFR ceilings are likely to develop early Thursday morning with a medium (40-60%) chance of IFR ceilings around sunrise. VFR returns by mid morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely tomorrow afternoon.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce a daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms through next week. Bouts of precipitation and lack of low RH will keep fire weather conditions at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 64 82 64 81 / 80 70 70 90 Anniston 65 82 65 81 / 70 60 60 90 Birmingham 67 82 66 81 / 80 50 60 90 Tuscaloosa 67 83 67 81 / 60 70 80 90 Calera 66 84 66 82 / 70 50 60 90 Auburn 68 86 68 84 / 50 20 20 60 Montgomery 68 86 68 83 / 50 30 30 70 Troy 68 87 68 84 / 30 10 10 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.