textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 613 AM CST MON NOV 2 2026

- Mid Week Focus: Keep an eye on Tuesday evening into Wednesday as rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up. The severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could lead to some localized flooding.

- Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week. A passing front will drop our temperatures, leaving us with lows in the 40s and maybe a few upper 30s for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1114 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2026

Only an isolated light shower may be noted across the far NRN counties over the next few hours across Central Alabama. The upper trough and associated shortwave activity is pushing EWD and away from the area now extending from the Great Lakes to Georgia. This wave will continue EWD and away from the region Monday morning with a break in the rain activity for Monday into much of the day Tuesday ahead of the next surface frontal system.

By Tuesday, our next system approaches as a low moves out of ERN Kansas across to Illinois and Michigan by Thursday. As it does so, it will drag a front across much of the Gulf Coast States including Central Alabama. We could see a few more thunderstorms with enough forcing from the front, along with some heavy rain at times. Latest guidance looks to weaken storms as they get closer Tuesday night with some of the flow potentially slow at times with the lower stream system. This is pointing more toward heavy rain potential for Tuesday night into Wednesday than severe, more so in the NW half of Central Alabama. Behind it for Thursday, there will be a small chance for some wrap-around showers behind the front as the upper trough pushes across Eastern Conus. Then on Friday a second (rain-free) front is expected to bring down a much colder Canadian air mass to lower the temperatures back into the 40s (and maybe a few upper 30s north) for lows for Central Alabama for next weekend.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CST MON NOV 2 2026

MVFR CIGs will continue to slowly mix, with VFR conditions expected area-wide by 02/16z. This is where conditions are expected to remain for the rest of this TAF period.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. We will have a brief dry out for Monday and Tuesday. Rain returns to the forecast Tuesday afternoon. Easterly winds will gust near 20 MPH at times, generally during the afternoon hours, through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 57 79 62 / 10 0 10 40 Anniston 77 59 78 63 / 10 0 10 30 Birmingham 77 61 78 64 / 10 0 20 50 Tuscaloosa 79 63 80 64 / 10 0 20 70 Calera 77 62 77 64 / 10 0 20 50 Auburn 76 61 78 64 / 10 0 10 20 Montgomery 80 62 81 65 / 0 0 20 40 Troy 78 61 79 64 / 0 0 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.