textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 549 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026

- Dangerously cold temperatures are expected through Sunday. The Extreme Cold Warning/Cold Weather Advisory is still in effect through this morning. Wind chills are currently forecast to fall below zero in the far northwest to the single digits in the far southeast.

- An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the entire area tonight into Sunday morning. Wind chills are currently forecast between 3 below zero across eastern counties to the single digits above zero elsewhere Sunday morning.

- Snow showers are forecast to develop across far eastern and northeastern portions of Central Alabama this morning that could lead to 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow accumulations with localized totals up to 1 inch. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through noon today. - A high chance exists for bands of snow flurries to develop as far south as Clanton and Alexander City through midday today. However, no impacts or accumulations are expected.

DISCUSSION

(Through Friday) Issued at 221 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026

Today through Sunday:

The forecast continues to be on track in terms of the expectation of dangerous to potentially life-threatening cold conditions over the next couple of days. In terms of the current progress of the arctic airmass moving southward, it's a couple of hours behind in terms of the hourly forecast with 26 observed in Haleyville, 30 in Birmingham, and mid 30s along the I-85 corridor. However, upper teens are being observed across all of western Tennessee along with widespread peak wind gusts over 30mph. Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are being reported as a result, and that's headed in our direction. Although some modifications have been made to the hourlies and overall low temperatures upwards a few degrees, all cold weather products remain unchanged. The bottom line is that the wind gusts that are currently forecast will be no joke later this morning, gusting between 30 and 40mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Splitting hairs between a few degrees in terms of the forecast wind chills shouldn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, and we'd rather continue to message the overall impact of how hazardous the cold conditions will be for those who don't have adequate shelter or heat along with those who may have to venture outside.

Temperatures are expected to only crawl upward through the day with very strong cold air advection continuing. If clouds hang tough for most of the day north of I-20, mid 20s for highs will be common while I-85 southward will struggle to rise above freezing. Although winds will begin to decrease as the pressure gradient lessens overnight tonight through Sunday morning, 10 to 15mph prevailing winds with gusts 20 to 25mph will send wind chills plummeting once again. Below zero wind chills are forecast across eastern and northeastern counties, with lowest numbers in the higher elevations. Actual low temperatures remain on track to drop down into the low to mid teens areawide. The Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect across all of Central Alabama tonight through Sunday morning.

In terms of the next forecast challenge for today, we'll have to start looking out the window and monitoring radar trends to watch where the snowflakes will begin flying across north Alabama this morning. The highly advertised, dynamic upper level closed low is on our front porch and moving into western Tennessee. Every run of the guidance over the past three days has continued to inch the track of the low farther southwest, and this morning is no different. Consensus is for the closed low to now track from Nashville to Fort Payne through midday and moving close to Atlanta by this afternoon. During the day yesterday, we went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our far northeast and eastern counties through midday. That was probably a prudent decision based on several of the latest CAM solutions that I've looked at this morning that are honing in on the best chance for snow accumulations in those counties. In addition, the synoptic guidance (even though the resolution is too coarse to resolve QPF at the surface) is showing a fairly large area of 100% RH at 700mb moving southward to the I-20 corridor and forecast soundings are moist enough in some locations to support snow development. Therefore, it's still very likely that we'll have bands of snow flurries develop at least as far south as the I-20 corridor and more isolated flurries as far south as Clanton and Alex City. When you have a system that is as dynamic as this one is, you always have to watch for a few surprises. By Sunday after the quick departure of the winter storm to the east, welcome sunshine will return along with winds continuing to subside. We'll finally rise above freezing areawide, but remain very cold in the upper 30s to lower 40s by Sunday afternoon. Winds will become calm Sunday night and allow radiational cooling to drop temperatures down into the teens and 20s once again. One question mark that might cause temperatures to not drop quite as much across the north will be a fast-moving upper shortwave that will increase high clouds across the northern half of the CWA.

Monday through Friday:

A very welcomed warm-up will be in store for Monday and Tuesday as upper level heights rise and southwesterly flow develops with a surface ridge centered over the northern Gulf. Highs are expected to "soar" into the 50s on Monday and even lower 60s for the southern half of the CWA on Tuesday. The next shortwave will eject eastward from a closed low over Baja California and will quickly begin to affect the Deep South starting as early as Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Plenty of synoptic lift from the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front should develop widespread showers that are being advertised to move across Central Alabama Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, followed by another shot of colder and drier air for Thursday and Friday. Thankfully, that wave of cold air isn't looking nearly as cold as what we're currently dealing with.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026

MVFR cigs will continue for the next few hours across C AL as wrap around moisture swings through. A few flurries may be noted as well. Winds will be brisk and gusty today with sustained initially from 10-15kts and gusts 22-26 kts, increasing by 5-10kts during the day with very tight gradients. BHM may see MVFR cigs again after 7z tonight as well.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Very cold and very dry air will return across Central Alabama through the weekend with gusty northwest transport winds as high as 35 to 40 mph this afternoon, slowly decreasing through the day on Sunday. MinRH values are forecast to drop back down into the lower 30s this afternoon and perhaps as low as the mid to upper 20s Sunday afternoon with single digit dewpoint values. Winds will diminish by Monday with RHs on the rebound ahead of the next cold front with a likely chance for wetting rainfall arriving by Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 27 13 38 16 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 28 14 38 20 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 27 16 38 22 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 31 17 41 21 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 29 16 40 20 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 30 16 39 22 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 33 18 41 20 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 32 16 41 20 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Etowah-Fayette- Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following counties: Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Randolph.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay- Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Talladega-Tallapoosa.

Extreme Cold Warning from noon today to noon CST Sunday for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Talladega-Tallapoosa.