textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 628 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026

- Significant Heat Risk: A warming trend will push heat indices to 105-108 each afternoon into the weekend. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8PM Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026

The center of the stout upper-level ridge remains situated over Tennessee and Kentucky, where it will remain for much of the remaining workweek. While this ridge will keep things suppressed at the surface through Wednesday, there are at least low probabilities for an isolated shower or storm today and tomorrow. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to prevail for most of the region. By Thursday, the ridge will slightly reorient itself, allowing for a weak disturbance to move toward the NW from the Gulf. Rain chances will increase into Thursday, with the best rain chances along and south of I-85.

The main weather story into the weekend will remain the increased heat risk, with a Heat Advisory now in effect until 8 PM Saturday. Confidence is high that heat index values will range between 105 and 107 degrees into the weekend, with an increased risk for people on concrete or asphalt for extended periods of time. This will be especially important this weekend, given the amount of outdoor events we expect to take place for the start of college football season. Low shower and thunderstorm probabilities (20-30%) will also return this weekend, as the upper-level ridge reorients itself once again. With that being said, confidence in exact storm locations is low, as this activity is generally expected to be scattered in nature.

/44/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail throughout this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds overnight will increase to around 6- 8 knots out of the east-southeast Wednesday afternoon.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 40% through the work week. Low (10 to 20%) chances for showers and storms will continue daily. Fire weather concerns are currently low, but decreasing soil moisture will begin to raise these concerns by next week given a lack of forecast rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 72 95 73 95 / 0 10 0 20 Birmingham 75 97 76 96 / 0 10 0 20 Tuscaloosa 75 99 76 99 / 0 10 10 20 Calera 74 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 20 Auburn 74 93 74 93 / 0 10 0 20 Montgomery 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 20 Troy 73 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.