textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast by today, with the best chances late Saturday night through Monday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher possible.

- We will begin to see more seasonable temperatures beginning Tuesday and persisting into the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Overall, we are looking at a cold front to our north and a weak trough to our south. Over the next 48 hours, we will see the front stall out without ever really reaching the area. At the same time, a shortwave disturbance in the Gulf will slide northward along the trough, developing a low-pressure system as it moves. Conceptually, the models are all performing well with overall cause and effect; the main challenges lie with model progression and the expected position of the front. Model consensus last week placed the front farther south and the low farther west, with moisture pooling along the front-a setup that would have resulted in copious rainfall for the state. Over the past few days, models have trended slower with the front and farther east with the low, essentially cutting off the best moisture from the state and forecast area. Over the last two runs, trends favor the front stalling slightly farther north while the low moves into the Mississippi Delta region. This scenario appears reasonable and plausible given climatological patterns for stalling fronts this time of year.

So what does this mean for rainfall potential over the weekend? Radar currently shows light echoes working into southern Alabama, with good coverage along the coast as well as the east coast of Florida. These two areas are almost banding around the low to our southwest. For the rest of the day and tonight, we should only see a modest increase in rain chances to the north, while southern areas may see decent coverage into the evening. Overnight, most activity will retreat back to the south before beginning a slow northward crawl on Saturday. Areas north of I- 85 will generally see isolated to scattered rain chances during the day on Saturday; while it will not be a complete washout, any showers that do form will likely be efficient rainmakers. Rain chances ramp up significantly Saturday night through Sunday as the low swings through the area, bringing the highest totals for the event. Regarding expected accumulation, latest probabilities indicate an 80-95% chance that most locations will receive at least half an inch of rain through Sunday night. Probabilities for exceeding 1 inch remain high at 75-90%. However, chances for 2 inches or more drop to 30-50% in the north and 60-80% in the south, while probabilities for greater than 3 inches are only 10- 20% in the north and 30-40% in the south. Overall, there is roughly an 80% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rain across the area, with lower chances for higher totals.

By Tuesday, a strong trough is expected to slide down into the area, clearing the stalled front and ushering in more seasonable weather through the end of next week. High temperatures may only reach the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s by this time next week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually decrease over the next few hours, with low clouds settling in at EET, MGM, and AUO by 03/09z. These conditions will gradually mix out past 03/16z, with additional showers expected past 03/18z. PROB30 groups for SHRA have been introduced at terminals, starting at MGM and AUO by 18z, gradually working north through the rest of the TAF period.

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FIRE WEATHER

Southerly flow increases through the weekend, bringing higher rain chances. Broadly, the area will see around 1 inch of rain by Sunday night. Chances of receiving 2 inches or more drop to 30- 50% across the north and 60-80% in the south, while probabilities for exceeding 3 inches remain lower at 10-20% in the north and 30- 40% in the south. Overall, there is roughly an 80% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rainfall across Central Alabama, with lower probabilities for higher totals. Drier and cooler air returns on Tuesday and persists through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 88 68 78 / 10 40 60 90 Anniston 69 88 69 77 / 10 40 60 90 Birmingham 71 88 70 78 / 10 30 60 90 Tuscaloosa 70 91 69 81 / 10 30 60 90 Calera 70 87 69 78 / 10 40 60 90 Auburn 69 85 69 75 / 20 50 60 100 Montgomery 71 88 71 78 / 30 50 80 100 Troy 69 86 69 78 / 30 60 80 100

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.