textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 222 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026

- Seasonable Conditions: Fair weather with warm afternoons and cool mornings is expected through the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026

This afternoon at the surface, a large area of high pressure is present across much of the eastern half of Conus. In the upper levels, northwest flow is present. Dry conditions will persist through the seven day forecast with warm days and cool nights. A surface low will develop over the Northern Rockies Thursday into Friday and move northeast into Central Canada by Saturday. As it does so, the associated front will extend out to the south from it and push eastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains. Also, upper ridging will start out over on the lee side of the Rockies and traverse through the Plains into Eastern Conus by the end of the weekend. All that said, we will remain in a dry pattern with little available moisture for cloud cover much less rain. We may have enough moisture for a little cloud cover by the beginning of next week. By Monday, an upper shortwave moving northeast out of the Western US will help to weaken the Eastern Conus ridge yielding southwest upper flow and a return to some cloud cover. This is ahead of an approaching front by the middle of next week and the end of our extended forecast. Temperatures will remain fairly similar over the next week with lows in the 40s and highs in the 70s across Central Alabama.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026

VFR TAFs are expected through the 24 hour forecast with surface high pressure in place across much of Eastern Conus. Look for minimal high clouds and light/variable to near calm winds.

Note: Fall seasonal issuance of the KASN Talladega TAF began on 10/18 00Z and will continue through 10/28 18Z.

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FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will allow us to maintain rain-free with light wind conditions. Daytime MinRH values are forecast to be in the 25 to 35 percent range. Winds pick up slightly over the weekend. Given MinRH values and drying fuels, fire weather concerns will remain medium into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 46 78 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 47 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 49 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 48 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 49 77 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 49 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 49 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 48 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.