textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 728 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026

- Heavy Rain: Given a stalled cold front and plenty of moisture streaming in from the Gulf, heavy rain will be possible into this weekend. A Flood Watch is in effect from Thursday morning through Saturday morning.

- Heat: A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening across generally the western half of Central Alabama. Afternoon heat indices will range between 103 and 106 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026

Over the next few days, a steady stream of Gulf moisture will continue flowing into the region, remaining influenced by TS Bertha. During this same timeframe, the cold front that we've been mentioning the last few days will finally come to a halt, getting removed from the best forcing aloft. This stalled front, paired with the steady flow of moisture, will set the stage for continuous rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. While the heaviest bands of rainfall appear to be to our north, there is at least medium confidence in these heavy bands shifting south into the afternoon on Friday. Given the high rainfall rates, and slow moving nature of these storms, we have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch, valid until 7 AM Saturday. This Flood Watch may get expanded in subsequent shifts, but the overall scope of this event depends on how far south the cold front ends up stalling.

Thankfully, temperatures still look to cool down past today, with afternoon highs falling into the upper-80s and low-90s given the cold front and increased rainfall. This is where afternoon highs are expected to stay through the weekend, before climbing once more by the start of next week. Here, the upper-level ridge to our west will begin to build east, resulting in the return of mid to high-90s. Confidence is already high that given this scenario, we'll need some type of heat headlines to start the new workweek.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026

Only a few lingering showers are expected over the next couple of hours across the north with a mention at BHM. Otherwise, a medium to high chance of more MVFR cigs to develop by morning 11-12z, and continuing through the morning. More scattered convection is expected, with the best chances across the northern half of the state starting Thursday afternoon ahead of a front that will push into Northern Alabama. Mentions during the afternoon are at TCL, BHM, and EET. Chances are more isolated and too low to mention at this time for MGM/AUO.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Through this weekend, rain will remain in the forecast with MinRH values staying above 50 percent. Given the warm and humid air mass, and continued chances for rain, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 89 72 88 / 40 80 60 80 Anniston 74 90 73 87 / 30 50 60 80 Birmingham 76 91 75 89 / 30 60 60 80 Tuscaloosa 76 91 75 90 / 20 40 50 50 Calera 74 94 74 91 / 20 40 40 70 Auburn 74 90 75 90 / 20 20 20 40 Montgomery 75 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 30 Troy 73 93 73 93 / 20 10 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter- Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Saturday morning for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah.