textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025

- Areas of dense fog are expected to reduce visibility to 1/4 mile or less across our southern counties this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected into the weekend, with highs running 15-20 degrees above average, and lows running 15 degrees above average.

- A front is currently forecast to sweep across the region on Sunday into Sunday night, swinging temperatures back to below normal to start next week.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025

Deep ridging in place over the Gulf Coast region will contribute to well above average temperatures over the next several days with a significant airmass change expected early next week.

Tonight, advection fog is quickly spreading northward from the Gulf Coast. Current obs are showing 1/4 mile visibilities across southwestern AL. HREF probabilities also indicate high chances (70-80%) of reaching Dense Fog Advisory criteria across our southern counties, so I went ahead and issued the advisory through 9 AM. To our north, a weak front will stall east to west across the Tennessee Valley, and we are seeing low-level cloud cover across our northern counties associated with that, but the boundary will remain well to our north and no rain in expected. In fact, the airmass will remain quite dry through the week. We'll be in shorts and t-shirts for Christmas with daytime highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

Early signals indicate the ridge will break down by this weekend as a more organized upper-level trough advances across the Northern CONUS and towards the Great Lakes region. A surface low will develop over the Central Plains and rapidly eject towards Ontario at the start of next week, so we're expecting an associated cold front to bring rain to Central Alabama in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Behind the front, a strong northwesterly blast of Winter air will bring a rapid end to our shorts and t-shirts weather.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025

Advection fog continues to move north towards MGM. VFR conditions persist for now, but expect some impacts to develop within the next several hours, primarily at the southern terminals. Low-level clouds across the north are not expected to produce reductions in flight criteria. Visibility will improve after sunrise, and VFR conditions are expected through the day with a light westerly wind.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Southerly winds will continue to increase today, ushering in plenty of moisture from the Gulf. MinRH values will generally range above 50% into next weekend, with mixing heights adjusting with the cloud cover. No organized rain chances are anticipated through the workweek, with drought conditions persisting for the foreseeable future. Lower RH are anticipated behind the front on Monday and will need to keep an eye on the winds as RH values will be in the 20s.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1255 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 23: KBHM: 73/2015 KEET: 74/2015 KANB: 73/2015 KTCL: 75/1964 KMGM: 78/1990

December 24: KBHM: 77/1964 KEET: 74/2016 KANB: 78/1964 KTCL: 86/2019 KMGM: 79/2016

December 25: KBHM: 78/2016 KEET: 79/2016 KANB: 78/2015 KTCL: 80/2016 KMGM: 82/2016

December 26: KBHM: 76/2021 KEET: 75/2016 KANB: 78/2015 KTCL: 75/2021 KMGM: 82/2015

December 27: KBHM: 77/2015 KEET: 77/2015 KANB: 76/2015 KTCL: 79/2015 KMGM: 80/2016

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 47 75 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 47 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 53 75 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 51 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 49 77 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 52 75 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 51 75 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 52 75 53 75 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Greene-Hale-Lowndes- Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Sumter.