textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 603 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026

- Mid-Week Focus: Keep an eye on tonight into Wednesday as rain chances ramp up, along with a low to medium thunderstorm chance. The severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding.

- Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week. A passing front will drop our temperatures, allowing for lows in the 40s and potentially mid to upper 30s for the weekend into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1241 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026

By later this afternoon, our next system approaches as a low moves out of Eastern Kansas across to Iowa and Michigan by Thursday. As it does so, it will drag a front across much of the Gulf Coast States including Central Alabama. We could see scattered thunderstorms with enough forcing from the front, along with heavy rain at times. Latest guidance looks to weaken storms as they get closer tonight with some of the flow potentially slow at times with the lower stream system. This is pointing more toward heavy rain/localized flooding potential for tonight into Wednesday morning than severe, more so in the NW half of Central Alabama.

Behind it for Thursday, there will be a small chance for some wrap-around showers behind the front as the upper trough pushes across Eastern Conus. Then on Friday a second front, with a small to medium chance for a few showers with it, is expected to bring down a much colder Canadian air mass to lower the temperatures back into the 40s (and maybe some mid to upper 30s) for lows for Central Alabama as the weekend progresses and into the first part of next week. There is a medium chance that we could see our first frost by Monday night.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026

Most terminals are MVFR with the exception of IFR at AUO and still VFR at MGM. Conditions are expected to deteriorate further as the night progresses as areas of rain spreads across Central Alabama ahead of a surface front. Rainy and OVC conditions should continue throughout the forecast, but CIGs may improve slightly during the afternoon. While the probability of TS is not zero, it is too low to mention in the TAFs ATTM.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the next couple of days. Rain will become more widespread overnight. Winds will become southeast to southwest on Wednesday ahead of a front and shift further as it moves through the area. Drier and cooler conditions return Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 63 76 57 77 / 80 90 30 10 Anniston 65 77 61 77 / 70 90 50 10 Birmingham 65 76 57 75 / 80 90 20 10 Tuscaloosa 65 77 54 77 / 80 80 10 0 Calera 66 76 59 76 / 80 90 30 10 Auburn 66 77 65 78 / 50 80 50 40 Montgomery 66 81 63 79 / 60 80 40 20 Troy 64 80 63 80 / 60 80 50 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.