textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026

- Minor HeatRisk will continue through the weekend. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Drier air will result in less rain chances through the weekend, although some storms may develop across the north late Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026

In the short term, decreasing dew point depressions and light winds following earlier convection will likely support patchy fog development around sunrise Saturday morning (20-40% probability). As upper-level ridging builds over the weekend, increased subsidence and drier air will temporarily lower precipitation chances. However, latest CAMs indicate a weak shortwave riding the ridge periphery, potentially affecting the northwest counties late afternoon into early evening. Consequently, maintained 20- 30% rain chances after 7 PM Saturday night. High temperatures are expected to persist in the low to mid-90s, though arriving drier air will limit heat indices to generally 100-104 degrees.

Looking into next week, high confidence exists in a stagnant upper-level pattern dominated by a strong ridge over the Southwest and southern tier. While the ridge holds, moderate confidence exists in the timing of shortwaves rotating through the northwest flow and a moderating frontal surge, which are expected to increase precipitation chances for the Southeast. Periodic bouts of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to overspread the region starting Tuesday and continuing through Friday as moisture and instability pool along the ridge's periphery.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026

A batch of rain is currently moving right over EET, between TCL and BHM. Look for the activity to remain possible through 02Z for the north. MGM and AUO may see some additional activity after 00Z through 03Z. MVFR cigs/vis and gusty winds will be likely with any passing storms. Will continue with PROB30 mentions to account for this activity. As winds become light overnight, there will be a low (20-30%) chance for patchy MVFR fog around sunrise. Best chances will be at terminals that receive rain this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are expected through much of the area on Saturday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Drier air filtering into the area on Saturday will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period. Moisture gradually begins to return early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 94 70 92 / 10 0 10 0 Anniston 70 92 69 91 / 10 0 10 0 Birmingham 72 93 72 92 / 10 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 73 98 73 96 / 10 10 20 10 Calera 72 94 72 93 / 20 0 10 10 Auburn 72 91 72 91 / 40 10 10 10 Montgomery 73 96 73 96 / 30 10 10 10 Troy 72 95 71 95 / 40 20 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.