textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 635 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026

- Rain chances increase starting Tuesday night and become a daily feature through the weekend as a cold front stalls across the region.

- Warm conditions continue to start out the work week with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026

As of writing, a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the southeastern portion of the CWA. The majority of convection this afternoon remained across the border in Georgia where low level convergence was maximized within a corridor of slightly higher moisture. Monday looks to feature a low (20-30%) chance for showers and storms as a passing H85-H7 shortwave interacts with an expanding plume of healthy moisture. Best chances will be across our southern and eastern areas.

Rain chances begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the first of a series of shortwaves pass through the region. The upper ridge that has been influencing the area over the last few days will lose its grasp by mid week as an upper trough begins to move across the Plains. An associated cold front will sink across the southeast Wednesday into Thursday, eventually stalling and lingering through the end of the week. As a result, we will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving ample moisture in place across the region. Therefore, rain chances remain in the forecast.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging in place across the Southeast US Coast. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the south to southeast through the late morning hours today with a few gusts at times. There will be low, diurnally enhanced, afternoon rain chances for portions of Central Alabama, but it is too low to mention at any terminals at this time.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Monday afternoon will feature low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across our southern and eastern areas. However, most locations will likely remain dry. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls across the region. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 88 64 88 64 / 10 10 10 20 Anniston 87 65 88 65 / 10 10 10 10 Birmingham 89 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 40 Tuscaloosa 89 69 90 68 / 10 10 10 30 Calera 89 67 90 66 / 10 10 10 30 Auburn 88 67 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 89 66 90 68 / 30 10 10 10 Troy 88 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.