textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of central Alabama through Tuesday evening.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for a couple severe thunderstorms for locations south and southwest of Birmingham through 7 pm this evening. Threats include a brief tornado and damaging wind gusts.

- Additional periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the week, and may pose additional risks for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026

We all wanted to rack up some rain to put a dent in the drought before summertime and, well, mother nature is delivering! A pattern of mid-level troughing/low pressure just to our west will continue to be in a holding pattern, essentially blocked by the configuration of surrounding weather systems. This will keep the Gulf Coast region in a favorable position for lift and an influx of tropical-like vertical moisture content. The result will be more of the same: daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Due to the cumulative effects of previous days' rainfall and forthcoming showers and thunderstorms, some with high rainfall rates, there is a risk for isolated flash flooding. The risk for strong/severe thunderstorms is nil to low, due to hindrance from cloudiness/widespread precipitation and weak lapse rates; however, an isolated and short-lived instance of such activity could occur, favoring the daytime hours, as weak flow translates across the area.

How long will this soggy weather continue? It may ease starting early next week (Sunday onward). ECMWF/GFS ensembles suggest a decreasing influence from the nearby trough as a ridge over the west Atlantic moves and allows its passage. This should cause us to feel the effects of an expanding high pressure system over the central U.S., decreasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026

A nearby mid-level trough will continue to promote lift and a moisture-rich air mass. In turn, there is a high chance of showers, thunderstorms, and low clouds impacting central Alabama terminals. Sub VFR categories will prevail over the next 24 hours, generally MFVR this afternoon but as low as IFR in showers and thunderstorms, then more in the way of IFR with potential LIFR overnight and Tuesday morning due to low ceilings (along with patchy fog). More showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, with a MVFR-IFR mix through the day.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day this week. As a result, there are no fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 78 64 82 / 80 80 50 90 Anniston 69 77 66 82 / 70 80 50 80 Birmingham 69 78 67 83 / 80 80 40 80 Tuscaloosa 70 78 68 83 / 70 80 40 90 Calera 68 77 67 84 / 70 90 40 80 Auburn 69 76 68 82 / 70 90 40 70 Montgomery 70 78 68 83 / 70 90 40 80 Troy 71 77 67 84 / 70 80 40 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Hale-Jefferson-Lowndes-Marengo-Montgomery- Perry-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Greene-Pickens-Sumter.