textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026

- Dry conditions will continue, with a warming trend expected late-week. Temperatures will drop this weekend following a cold front. - There will be borderline Red Flag Warning conditions this afternoon due to dry fuels and low humidity, but wind gusts are expected to remain below issuance criteria (25 mph).

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1052 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026

Elongated ridging will remain situated over the Southwestern US through the weekend which will generally promote persistent west to northwesterly mid-level flow and dry and warm conditions across Central Alabama. Temperatures were running cooler this morning than previous days due to the frontal passage yesterday and northeasterly surface flow, and conditions this afternoon will be comfortable with highs ranging from the mid 60s east to mid 70s west with low humidity. Latest guidance continues to indicate mostly dry conditions tonight despite the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough, due to a deep pocket of dry air below 700mb. There's a small chance of sprinkles in the northeast tonight, but a majority of the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground.

Our main focus this week will be on fire weather conditions as dry fuels combined with poor moisture recovery overnight and low min RHs will result in elevated fire risks. Not quite reaching the required wind gusts to reach Red Flag criteria today, but another opportunity may arise this weekend as a second dry cold front passes through the area. Exercise caution if you plan to do any burning this week. Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s on Thursday and Friday with another comfortable, post-frontal airmass arriving Sunday. The pattern looks to remain relatively unchanged by the end of the long- term period, but an eastward shift in the center of the mid-level ridge to our west will likely promote another warming trend across the forecast area as we head into next week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are in place across all terminals early this evening. Low level moisture will begin to increase overnight from the south. This will lead to a brief period of MVFR cigs at AUO Wednesday morning. Opted to TEMPO groups at all other sites based on the latest HREF probs. VFR returns by midday.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

RH values will have poor recovery overnight and this morning, rebounding only to the 50-65% range. MinRH values will be in the 20- 30% range this afternoon, with conditions becoming borderline Red Flag criteria. Winds are forecast to be just light enough to not yet necessitate a RFW. As temperatures again warm toward the end of the week, fire weather concerns are likely to increase as Central Alabama remains dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 47 72 52 83 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 48 72 53 82 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 52 74 57 83 / 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 51 78 57 84 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 51 76 55 83 / 0 10 0 0 Auburn 51 71 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 77 55 84 / 0 10 0 0 Troy 53 76 56 83 / 0 10 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.