textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025

- A strong cold front will sweep through the state on Monday with scattered to numerous (60-80%) showers tonight into Monday ahead of the front.

- Potential is increasing for an areawide deep freeze Tuesday morning with temperatures in the lower 20s.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025

Broad mid-level ridging remains in place over much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region while deep troughing was present over much of Montana and Southwest Interior Canada. Surface high pressure was centered to our southeast just southwest of Tampa, FL while lower pressure was present across portions of the Northern and Central Plains. A persistent strong subsidence inversion continues to be present in the KBMX soundings into tonight, effectively trapping moisture in the lower levels and resulting in the persistent clouds and increased presence of fog development over the past few nights. Little change in the pattern will occur overnight locally, resulting in cloud bases lowering across much of the area with patchy fog potential greatest across the southeast counties where a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 3 am to 10 am Sunday morning.

Today.

Broad ridging will move east over the area through the day Sunday, becoming positioned over much of the Southeast Atlantic Coast by mid afternoon while sharp troughing deepens further with the formation of a potent upper low over the Dakotas that will dive southeast over the Northern and Central Plains during the afternoon hours. Strong dynamical forcing will support the rapid deepening of surface low pressure as it moves northeast from across the Central Plains toward the Upper Ohio River Valley Region through the day on Sunday. Closer to home, surface high pressure will remain to our southeast near the Western Florida Peninsula while gradually losing influence as a strong cold front approaches the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi River Valley Region late in the day.

Expect mostly cloudy skies again Sunday after patchy morning fog mixes out with highs from around 70 far east to the mid 70s southwest. Winds will be increasing from the southwest through the day with speeds from 7-14 mph.

Tonight through Monday.

Deep troughing aloft will swing eastward over much of the Midwest, Mid Mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valley Regions. Rapidly deepening surface cyclogenesis is expected with the parent surface low occluding across the Eastern Great Lakes with the triple point moving northeast into Upper New York State by Monday morning as the surface cold front plows southeast through the forecast area by late morning.

Further increases in cloud cover will this evening with rain chances increasing from the northwest generally toward sunset then expanding eastward through the night. Strong kinematics with favorable wind shear profiles will exist for organized convection, especially to our northwest, however, the lack of low to mid level instability will keep thunderstorm potential minimal. Low temperatures will range from mid 30s far northwest to the mid 50s far southeast. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest behind the front with speeds increasing into the 8-16 mph range.

Rain chances will rapidly decrease through the morning hours from northwest to southeast with only isolated activity expected across our far southeast counties generally southeast of Interstate 85 corridor through the early afternoon hours before dry conditions return areawide by late afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually decrease from northwest to southeast through the afternoon and into the evening hours. High temperatures will be achieved Monday around midday with readings from around 40 degrees far northwest to around 60 far southeast before falling through the afternoon as strong cold air advection ensues. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph and breezy at times.

Monday Night through Thursday.

A sprawling upper low will be positioned over Southeast Canada and the far Northeastern states while a northwest flow pattern will become entrenched over much of the Tennessee Valley Region. The deep occluded surface low will become positioned just northeast of Maine while strong and expansive surface high pressure will extend from across much of the Intermountain West southeast into the South and Central Plains by Tuesday. The general synoptic- scale configuration will persist with lower heights over much of Southeast Canada with gradual amplifying ridging over much of the Intermountain West, resulting in a persistent west to northwest flow over the local area through Thursday. Surface high pressure will gradually shift southeast, becoming centered across the Central Gulf Coast states by Thursday.

Expect fair skies with dry conditions Monday night through Thursday night. Very cold temperatures will return to Central Alabama with lows from around 20 northwest to the mid 20s southeast early Tuesday morning followed by highs from near 40 far north to the mid 40s far southeast. Lows Wednesday morning will range from around 20 northeast to the low 20s elsewhere with afternoon highs from the upper 40s north to readings around 50 across the southern third of the forecast area. Lows Thursday morning will range from the mid 20s northeast to readings near 30 south followed by highs in the low to mid 50s across much of the area, except for upper 40s in the higher terrain north and east.

Thursday Night through Saturday.

The mid-level pattern looks to become more amplified late this week with amplified ridging over much of the Intermountain West while deep troughing plunges southeast over much of the Ohio River Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic States overnight Thursday into Friday. Uncertainties also increase during this time frame as some of the available guidance depicts the development of a shortwave trough over New Mexico and West Texas Friday night and ejects the disturbance towards our area while remaining members showing shortwave ridging over the Mid-South region.

A surface cold front looks to push south through the area overnight Thursday night into Friday with expansive surface high pressure temporarily building in over much of the Midwest and Upper Mississippi River Valley Region early on Friday, but then quickly migrate eastward, becoming centered across the Carolinas and Virginia by Saturday morning, which will result in the surface front stalling along the Northern Gulf Coast then returning northward as a synoptic warm front as a southerly flow develops in the lower levels.

Expect increasing clouds late Thursday into the overnight hours with low (10-20%) chances for some showers moving into the western and northwestern counties overnight Thursday night and into Friday morning, following by isolated (25-40%) chances for showers across all but the far southeast where rain chances will be lower (15-20%) generally southeast of the Interstate 85 corridor through the day on Friday. Shower chances will become at least isolated Friday night and into Saturday with 20-40% chances areawide with 40-50% chances across the northeast and east-central counties Saturday morning with this higher potential expanding across all of the northern two- thirds of the area into Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures look a bit tricky given the differences in guidance with the blend products showing lows from the upper 20s north to around freezing south Friday morning but will adjust temps upward to better account for expected warm advection and increased shortwave radiation from added cloud cover. Highs Friday will range from near 50 far north to the upper 50s south. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 30s far east and northeast to the low 40s southwest with highs from the mid 50s far east and northeast to the low 60s generally near and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor.

05

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025

Conditions have mixed out across the north and will do so by 20z in the south. VFR can be expected at all sites by 21z. However, a front will move through the region later tonight, increasing rain chances and cloud cover again. All terminals are expected to fall back into IFR/MVFR category for skies, with all terminals carrying -RA/RA as well. Rain ends across the north by 11z with VFR clouds by 13z. Rain ends in the south by 12z with VFR after that. Winds will be strong from the NW around 15 to 17 kts sustained and gusts of 25 to 27 kts.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Mostly mostly cloudy skies with wetting rains expected overnight and into Monday as a strong cold front moves through. Shower activity will decrease through the day Monday from northwest to southeast with decreasing clouds following later in the day. Brisk northwest winds will increase from 8-16 mph and breezy at times during the day on Monday while minimum RH values look to drop into the low 30 percent range across the southwest and south-central counties with conditions locally near red flag criteria in these areas that will bear watching. Minimum RH values are forecast to be around 30 percent areawide Tuesday afternoon as well, but with lighter surface winds. Dry conditions will persist through Thursday while temperatures gradually moderate.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 41 46 21 / 10 90 10 0 Anniston 72 43 49 22 / 10 90 10 0 Birmingham 73 42 47 24 / 10 90 10 0 Tuscaloosa 76 43 48 24 / 0 90 10 0 Calera 74 43 48 24 / 10 90 10 0 Auburn 72 51 57 27 / 10 60 30 0 Montgomery 76 51 57 27 / 0 80 20 0 Troy 75 53 58 27 / 0 60 30 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.