textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026

- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Threats including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.

- There is a medium to high chance for low temperatures reaching the upper 30s Friday morning when conditions may become supportive of patchy frost.

- There is a low to medium chance for low temperatures to reach freezing next Monday night for portions of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026

Warm conditions expected through the remainder of the day as high pressure persists across the region. A cut-off low that has been in the SW US is expected to move eastward through the Southern Plains and Texas this evening through Wednesday. Another low pressure system lifts through the Ohio Valley and deepens as it reaches the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon as well. These two systems essentially both contribute to increased forcing along a frontal boundary as it moves into Central AL Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

This is where the severe weather threat comes into play - As the front moves into our area, expect a line of thunderstorms to move along the frontal boundary. Even with the overnight timing, instability looks to be 800-1000 J/kg range, if not higher depending on what model you look at. Shear will be more than enough to support strong to severe storms. A lot of guidance suggests winds will generally be parallel to the front, which would lead to more of a damaging wind and hail threat vs. a tornado threat. However, if any storms are able to develop in the warm sector ahead of the front, or if any storm interactions along the front lead to enhance storm- relative shear, we could see a tornado threat present itself. For that reason, we'll continue to highlight the threat of damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail for Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

By 7-10am Thursday, the front is expected to be southeast of our area, really ending any significant rain/storm chances in Central AL. Colder air builds in quickly during the day on Thursday with highs generally being 20 degrees colder than on Wednesday. We could see some frost development across the northern half of Central AL Friday morning as temperatures drop into the mid 30s under clear skies and mostly calm winds. With the high pressure building to our east, we get some cooler air filtering southward through the valleys in the northeastern portions of Central AL.

We'll have a couple of days of moderating temperatures Friday through Saturday as we get a return of southerly flow ahead of our next system, which is expected Sunday night into Monday. There's some decent model agreement this far out with the next trough and frontal boundary pushing through Sunday night into Monday morning, leading to medium to high rain chances. The question will be whether we get enough destabilization ahead of the system. For now, I'll keep 20-30% chance for thunderstorms in the forecast, but we'll need to monitor for any changes over the next few days to determine any chances for strong to severe storms.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026

CIGs have been slow to rise today and are currently sitting right at MVFR to VFR. This should all go VFR over the next hour or so and we should have VFR conditions through the remainder of the day and evening. Increasing clouds are expected again tonight with Cigs dropping back to MVFR to IFR generally between 10-14z. Guidance continues to keep any VIS restrictions south of our area through the period.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain and thunderstorms chances tomorrow into Thursday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will shift out of the north Thursday behind the front. RHs will drop into the low 30% range by Thursday afternoon and again on Friday afternoon as the drier air mass is in place.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 62 81 42 58 / 10 10 100 20 Anniston 63 82 47 60 / 10 10 100 30 Birmingham 65 82 45 59 / 10 20 100 20 Tuscaloosa 64 83 47 63 / 10 30 100 20 Calera 64 83 47 62 / 10 10 100 30 Auburn 63 83 53 63 / 10 0 90 50 Montgomery 64 85 51 63 / 10 10 90 50 Troy 63 85 53 65 / 0 0 80 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.