textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: Rain chances will increase significantly for Wednesday night through Friday, when showers and thunderstorms could become widespread.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

A weak front has pushed southward and brought drier air to the region today. Aside from our far southeastern counties, where a few showers and storms may develop this afternoon, most of the forecast area will remain dry through tonight, with PWAT values insufficient for diurnal convection.

Moisture will gradually increase Wednesday into Thursday as a very broad upper-level trough, enhanced by MCS activity, approaches from the west. The combination of increasing lift and moisture should lead to increasingly widespread showers and storms Wednesday night through Friday, with somewhat limited predictability regarding the timing and placement of multiple rounds of convection. However, there is a general model consensus for the upper-level trough and associated weak surface front to move slowly eastward across Alabama. This should place the highest rain chances along and east of Interstate 59 on Friday.

Rain chances should trend lower for the weekend as the trough shears out and the focus for convection weakens. This may lead to a warming trend if the 500 mb ridge builds across the region as indicated by some model guidance.

87/Grantham

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

There is a low chance of short-lived fog at KMGM on Wednesday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include this in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF period at all sites.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns at this time. Drier air has moved into the region with RH values ranging from 35 to 50 percent this afternoon. Moisture and rain chances will gradually increase Wednesday and Thursday, with a potential for widespread showers and storms on both Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 94 71 90 / 0 10 40 70 Anniston 68 93 71 88 / 0 10 30 70 Birmingham 71 94 73 89 / 0 20 40 70 Tuscaloosa 72 96 73 90 / 0 30 50 70 Calera 71 94 72 89 / 0 20 40 80 Auburn 72 91 73 87 / 0 20 20 80 Montgomery 73 96 74 92 / 0 20 20 80 Troy 71 94 72 91 / 10 20 20 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.