textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026

- Rain chances increasing Thursday into Friday morning. Low chances for severe and flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1100 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026

After a chilly start to the day, we are beginning to warm up nicely with temps currently right around 40 degrees. We are still on track to warm up into the low to mid 50s. Significantly drier air remains in place with PWATs down to ~0.15-0.2" per the latest GOES TPW imagery and the 12Z KBMX sounding. Lighter winds today will help to negate our fire weather threat this afternoon.

After a brief stint of zonal flow aloft, our next system looks to ahead our way Thursday and Friday. A shortwave will kick south out of the Plains, while slightly deepening as it moves across the southeast US. Meanwhile, a slow moving cold front will drift south, nearing the region through the day Thursday, eventually stalling across the state Thursday night into Friday morning. We will need to keep a close eye on our potential for strong to severe storms as well as a sneaky hydro threat. Rain chances begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Greatest chances (50-80%) will be Thursday evening into Friday morning.

Severe: Instability does not look to be too impressive with this system. 00Z LREF guidance hints at only a 20% chance of CAPE values over 200 J/kg. However, 0-6km wind shear around 50 knots would support a few strong to severe thunderstorm as the front moves through.

Hydro: The stalling boundary and a slight uptick in moisture has the potential to promote some flooding concerns. A moist southwesterly low level flow will allow PWATs increase into the 1.3-1.5" range ahead of this system. The combination of a fairly deep warm cloud depth and an established low level moisture convergence axis could lead to isolated flooding concerns. Trends will be monitored regarding the hydro threat. Rainfall amounts look to generally range from 1-2" with low chances for amounts over 2".

Rain chances gradually come to an end through the day Friday as the shortwave pulls off to the east and the surface boundary nudges south while washing out. We remain dry through the weekend as weak ridging attempts to become reestablished.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. MVFR ceilings begin to return generally after 15Z Wednesday for BHM/EET/TCL. South-southwesterly winds will gradually increase during the late morning hours with gusts around 20 knots likely.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Significantly drier air remains in place across the region this afternoon. As a result, min RH values will be down to the 20-25% range once again. However, winds will be lighter today which will help negate any fire weather concerns. Moisture begins to recover on Wednesday ahead of our next cold front. Medium to high rain chances return Thursday through mid day Friday. Drier air moves back in for the week with RH values dropping to 35-40%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 53 35 62 50 / 0 0 10 50 Anniston 53 37 64 52 / 0 0 10 40 Birmingham 53 40 65 55 / 0 0 10 40 Tuscaloosa 55 40 69 57 / 0 0 0 30 Calera 55 38 67 55 / 0 0 0 40 Auburn 53 38 67 55 / 0 0 0 30 Montgomery 56 38 71 57 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 56 38 72 55 / 0 0 0 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.