textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

- Heat: Major to extreme heat risk is expected to persist through the beginning of the work week, with heat indices reaching 105 to near 113 degrees. A heat advisory is in effect today. For tonight into Monday, an extreme heat warning is in effect.

- Thunderstorms: Isolated summertime convection, around 20%, is expected this afternoon and evening with slightly higher coverage on Monday through much of the week with 20-40% rain chances.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast into the middle of next week, keeping heat index values well into Heat Advisory criteria. Rain chances will also start to decrease by today, as the ridge shifts slightly to the west. This will allow for more convergence aloft up north, keeping the isolated rain chances mainly in our southern counties. These storms will continue to be capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds given the incredibly unstable airmass.

By the middle of next week, the ridge will slide to the west even more, allowing for the region to shift into northwest flow between the ridge to the west, and a trough over the Ohio Valley. Guidance is already in pretty good agreement with a surface boundary working into the region during this time, with medium confidence in increased rain chances, and afternoon highs dropping a few degrees by Friday. While this won't be a wholesale swing, any relief will be welcomed given this extended pattern we've been stuck in.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected outside of any convection. Confidence in afternoon summertime diurnal convection is low to medium on occurrence, based on persistence but low on exact placement as convective initiation guidance has been challenging. Cumulus fields are noted as building on satellite with hot and humid conditions areawide but not as much coverage as yesterday. Mentioned VCSH for EET/MGM this afternoon, with TSRA PROB30s for them and AUO where better confidence was present. Further north and west, where TS was a lower prob, only mentioned a PROB30 for SHRA for TCL/BHM. Outside of convection, winds will be W-NW 6- 9kts with mixing and light/variable overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the next several days. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 76 99 75 96 / 10 30 20 10 Anniston 75 97 74 94 / 10 30 20 10 Birmingham 77 97 76 95 / 10 30 20 10 Tuscaloosa 77 99 77 98 / 10 20 20 10 Calera 76 97 76 96 / 10 30 20 10 Auburn 76 95 77 93 / 20 20 20 10 Montgomery 77 100 77 99 / 20 30 20 20 Troy 75 97 75 97 / 20 30 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Extreme Heat Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.