textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the low to middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 140 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

Persistent upper-level ridging will remain the weather story for this forecast, as the apex of the ridge is currently establishing itself over Tennessee. This ridge will very quickly "switch off" rain chances for the week, with the highest probabilities in the afternoon not even reaching 10% through Friday. Under this high pressure, afternoon high temperatures will quickly stabilize in the low to upper-90s, remaining here until next weekend as well. While afternoon temperatures will be hot, dew point values will be lower in this drier airmass. In turn, heat index values will mostly range between 101-103, keeping us below any type of heat critical thresholds.

By this weekend, it appears as if the upper-level pattern begins to shift, as a low pressure works its way around the ridge. This low will work into the Gulf via the Atlantic, continuing to work west over the next few days. While confidence in the exact placement and movement of the disturbance is low, anything that does work into the Gulf should suppress the ridge and increase rain chances through the weekend.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

Under the persistent upper-level ridge, VFR conditions are generally expected for this entire TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight and then east on Tuesday at 7 to 10 knots.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by late next week if significant rainfall does not fall by then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 71 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 74 96 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 73 100 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 73 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 73 93 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 73 96 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 71 95 72 92 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.