textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026

- Summer Pattern: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall likely under high moisture and slow-moving storms.

- Heat: Heat indices will begin to climb by the middle of the new workweek under hot temperatures and high humidity. There is medium confidence in Heat Advisory criteria being met as early as Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026

Scattered afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast through tomorrow, as the air mass over the region almost remains in a "steady state." By late tomorrow, the ridge to our east will begin to slightly weaken, sliding to the west under a strengthening trough over New England. This weakened ridge will remain along the Gulf Coast through midweek, keeping these scattered afternoon showers and storms in the forecast.

Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that this ridge will begin to strengthen closer to Thursday, and continue strengthening into next weekend. Based on the current trends, there's medium confidence in reaching Heat Advisory criteria as early as Wednesday in some locations, with this ridge only expected to grow stronger. By this time next weekend, afternoon highs could reach into the mid and upper-90s, with an extended period of widespread Heat headlines beginning around Thursday.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026

Scattered storms are currently expanding across the region, with this activity expected to remain past 10/01z. These storms will be slow moving, primarily driven by outflow boundaries from other storms. All terminals will carry PROB30 groups for TSRA during this time, before slowly clearing back into VFR category past 10/03z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected daily. Because of this, elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 92 73 92 / 20 40 10 60 Anniston 72 90 73 90 / 20 30 10 60 Birmingham 74 91 75 90 / 20 30 10 50 Tuscaloosa 75 93 75 93 / 20 20 10 30 Calera 73 91 74 91 / 20 30 10 40 Auburn 74 88 74 88 / 20 30 10 30 Montgomery 74 93 75 94 / 20 30 10 20 Troy 73 92 73 93 / 20 30 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.