textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026

- Very high chances (80-100%) for rain Friday into Saturday with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Any threat for a severe storm remains very low.

- Well above normal temperatures return next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026

2026 is off to a nice start so far. Have already bumped up high temperatures and will need to do so again shortly. Tonight won't be as cool as previous nights as high clouds begin to move in, but lows will still drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s with light winds.

Tomorrow the first in a series of shortwaves in westerly flow aloft moves in along with associated isentropic lift. Some of this will probably be virga initially, but usually precip starts reaching the surface quicker than expected in these situations, and the column should quickly saturate through the afternoon over much of the area. Some increases in PoPs may become necessary in later updates.

The next shortwave moves through the Tennessee Valley Friday evening, while a broad, non-deepening area of low pressure at the surface moves through Central Alabama along with a southwesterly 850mb 45kt jet. This lift and moisture transport will result in widespread showers across Central Alabama Friday night. With a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability, some embedded thunderstorms are expected as well. Some of the stronger storms may produce small hail, but weak mid-level lapse rates should prevent any severe hail. Rainfall amounts will be less than an inch for most, but some HREF members do indicate some locally higher amounts around 2 inches.

A stronger shortwave moves through Saturday morning as the cold front moves through the southeast counties. Some surface-based instability does develop. However the stronger 850mb flow and moisture axis will be east of the area by this time, with weakening/veering low-level flow. Thus while there will be some 0-6km shear, the 0-3km and 0-1km shear will be weaker. If an updraft can become sustained despite the relatively drier aloft and not get sheared apart, there would be a conditional risk for a severe storm. However, probabilities appear fairly low with somewhat higher chance remaining southeast of the forecast area.

The cool down behind the front will be short-lived as ridging builds over the south-central CONUS and Pacific/downslope warmed air floods the central CONUS. Temperatures will trend well above normal next week. A cold front may approach the area Wednesday with low rain chances, but will probably stall out to our northwest due to ridging over the southeast CONUS.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with southwest winds around 4-7kts. Light rain and potentially some lower clouds will move in tomorrow afternoon after the current TAF cycle.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Generally light southwesterly winds expected today into Friday as moisture returns ahead of our next system. Widespread rain is expected Friday and Saturday. Min RHs should remain well above critical values through the next 7 days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 61 37 61 49 / 0 0 70 100 Anniston 61 40 61 52 / 0 0 60 100 Birmingham 62 43 60 54 / 0 0 70 100 Tuscaloosa 66 42 62 55 / 0 0 60 90 Calera 62 40 63 54 / 0 0 60 100 Auburn 61 42 63 56 / 0 0 30 100 Montgomery 65 41 66 59 / 0 0 30 90 Troy 65 41 68 58 / 0 0 30 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.