textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 526 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2026

- Brief Mid-Week Rain Chance: A system will bring a low chance of showers (roughly 20-30% chance) late Wednesday through Thursday morning.

- Late-Week Cold Front & Freeze Risk: A strong cold front on Thursday will usher in gusty winds and much colder air, leading to a widespread frost and freeze heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1011 PM CST MON NOV 9 2026

We were treated to a pleasant November day across Central Alabama today with high temps settling in the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. We won't be quite as cold tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s. Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a southern stream trough over Texas that will head our way through the middle of the week. If we peek far enough west, we can see a stronger upper low begin to make its way towards the Pacific Northwest. This southern stream system will pass through the area late Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing some mid and upper level clouds to the region. We will continue with a low chance for light rain/sprinkles (potentially virga) as guidance can often underdo QPF in these scenarios.

The stronger northern-stream shortwave trough will bring a clipper-like system and strong cold front into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Low-level moisture return will be lacking ahead of the front with dew points mainly in the low to mid 50s, but strong forcing and steep mid-level lapse rates will be sufficient for a few showers Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. There may be just enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm across our northern areas, but severe storms are not expected at this time. A much cooler air mass moves in behind the front, with highs in the 50s and high chances for the first freeze of the season across at least northern portions of the area. Latest NBM probabilities maintain a 60-90% chance for freezing temps across the northern half of the CWA.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with calm to very light winds and passing batches of mid- to high-level clouds.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

RH values drop into the 25 to 35 percent range Tuesday afternoon. However, light winds will help negate fire weather concerns. Moisture increases slightly on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This increase in moisture will warrant a 20-40% chance of rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. We will need to keep an eye on Thursday for increased fire weather concerns as northwesterly winds increase in the wake of the front. Drier air and cooler temps return next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 75 42 73 50 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 75 46 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 74 48 73 52 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 75 45 75 51 / 0 10 10 10 Calera 74 48 73 52 / 0 10 10 10 Auburn 75 50 73 52 / 0 0 30 0 Montgomery 76 49 76 54 / 0 10 10 0 Troy 76 49 74 53 / 0 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.