textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 128 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026

- An enhanced risk (levels 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for late Wednesday into early Thursday. Threats include isolated, brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

- There is a low to medium risk (level 2 of 4) of flash flooding with the thunderstorm activity Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 128 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026

A slow-moving cold front is expected to move through the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Along and ahead of this front, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop. Instability is expected to be 1200-2200 J/kg, providing ample thermodynamic support for strong to severe storms. The dynamics are a bit more complex with the main upper level jet displaced to the north and the main trough lagging behind a bit. We initially see more unidirectional shear Wednesday afternoon and early evening when the front begins moving into Central AL. This would lead to more of a wind and hail threat early-on. However, as we go into the evening and overnight hours, the low level jet increases across the region. This enhances the low level directional shear, presenting an increasing potential for tornado development through the evening and overnight hours.

In addition to the severe weather threat, higher resolution guidance has started hinting at an axis of higher rainfall amounts as this slow-moving frontal boundary slides through Central AL. In this axis, we're looking at a 30-50% chance for rainfall rates to exceed 1.5-2" per hour. This will lead to localized flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

The front is expected to move south and east of the region Thursday morning, gradually decreasing rain chances as we go through the remainder of the week. Another trough is expected Sunday into Monday, which will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms for Central AL. This will be the next system to watch for any potential for strong to severe storms, but there's still quite a bit of variability in the timing to nail down specific concerns.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon and evening across Central AL. A slow-moving front will slide into the northwestern areas and lead to rain and thunderstorms just to our north Wednesday morning. This should remain north of any TAF sites, but will lead to MVFR ceilings for BHM, EET, and TCL from generally 14-18z. The main impacts will likely come later Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

No significant fire concerns anticipated over the next few days. RHs remain above critical values today with a few drier spots in the east. Otherwise, widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning across Central AL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 60 80 60 74 / 20 70 90 60 Anniston 61 81 63 74 / 10 70 90 70 Birmingham 65 81 64 74 / 10 80 90 60 Tuscaloosa 64 82 64 76 / 10 70 90 60 Calera 62 82 63 76 / 10 70 90 70 Auburn 62 83 67 77 / 0 30 70 90 Montgomery 62 88 68 78 / 0 30 70 90 Troy 60 88 66 79 / 0 20 50 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.