textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across the northwest and west portions of Central Alabama during the pre- dawn and into the daytime hours on Sunday. The threats include tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

- Record-breaking high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected each afternoon through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

Central Alabama remains on the very warm and dry side of the significant weather that continues to evolve off to our west and northwest. A 592 decameter ridge is holding firm across the southwestern Atlantic, which is keeping the fire hose of moisture and train of disturbances across eastern Texas all the way into the Ohio River Valley. With the cap of warm air aloft due to the upper level ridge, rain chances will remain minimal, aside for an isolated shower or storm across our far western-most counties. A few showers have actually developed over the last couple of hours in these areas, and will add a slight chance PoP to the forecast through this afternoon. Otherwise due to the tight surface pressure gradient continuing, breezy southerly winds of 10 to 15mph with gusts up to 25mph can be expected. We'll be very close or will set additional record highs again today, as we top out near or just above the 90 degree mark areawide. Winds will diminish somewhat overnight, but the boundary layer should remain mixed. We'll only drop down into the upper 60s to lower 70s as isentropic lift develops low stratus clouds after midnight. Following mostly overcast conditions Friday morning, clouds are forecast to mix out by the afternoon with breezy southerly winds continuing. A slight chance of a few showers and perhaps a storm will hold on in the far western counties, so almost a rinse and repeat forecast from what we're observing today as temperatures rise once again into record-breaking territory Friday afternoon.

56/GDG

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

The weather story for this long-term will remain the severe weather chances for Saturday Night, lingering into Sunday afternoon. The trough and cold front still look like they'll begin shifting east sometime during the day on Saturday, with the first round of thunderstorms anticipated as early as 3AM Sunday. However, the timing with this system is still leaving a lot in question, as the goalposts remain quite large. Right now, there appears to be almost a six hour spread on when this line could move in, so hopefully we have a better picture on timing here in the next day or so. Regardless, this line will be capable of producing damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

It's also looking like this line will be capable of very heavy rainfall, with 2-4 inches of rain possible along and north of I-20 in a very short period of time. While we don't anticipate any prolonged flooding, isolated flash flooding will certainly be possible given these heavier rainfall rates.

Thankfully, we'll swing to the other end of the temperature spectrum by the start of the new workweek. Well below average temperatures are expected by Monday, with highs generally ranging in the low-60s, and overnight lows ranging in the upper-30s and low-40s.

/44/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours tonight. Breezy southerly surface winds prevailing 15 to 20 knots with gusts above 25 knots at times this afternoon will diminish through the overnight hours. High confidence exists in the development of at least MVFR stratus by 08z areawide, with a chance for some IFR stratus between 10z and 13z Friday morning. Ceilings are forecast to rise to VFR conditions between 15 and 17z Friday for all terminals with breezy southerly surface winds continuing.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will continue to linger in the 40% range tomorrow and Saturday, before climbing greatly with widespread rain chances into Sunday. 2-4 inches of rainfall will be possible here, with a lot of this rain being moderate to heavy at times. Expect winds to remain steady from the south through Sunday, before swinging towards the NW come Monday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 730 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025

Forecast high temperatures will continue to be near record values from Thursday, April 3rd to Saturday, April 5th. The table below shows current record high temperatures for each of those days.

April 3 April 4 April 5

Anniston 89 86 88 Birmingham 87 88 88 Tuscaloosa 86 87 89 Montgomery 87 89 91

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 67 90 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 70 90 67 88 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 71 90 67 86 / 0 10 0 30 Calera 70 90 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 67 88 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 69 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 68 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.