textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026

- Significant Heat Risk: Maximum afternoon heat indices will remain between 105-108 degrees through the weekend. A heat advisory remains in effect until 8 PM Sunday.

- Storms Sunday: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the evening across the southern half of Central Alabama. Primary hazards will include gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026

This afternoon an upper level ridge is stretched from Northern Mexico into the Central Plains with weak northeast flow over Central Alabama. In the lower levels, weak surface ridging was present over the Western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Convection has been moving through the weak easterly flow since this morning, but is more scattered this afternoon. Temperatures were lower this morning with all of the activity, but are warming up post convection. One more day of extreme temperatures is expected. A surface boundary is expected to move into the area from the north/ northeast on Sunday with a medium chance of convection developing along and south of this boundary. There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening across generally the southern half of Central Alabama with gusty winds being the main threat. Monday into Tuesday, the upper ridge expands eastward across more of Conus with the best chances for convection across the southern parts of the CWA closer to the surface boundary and any upper disturbances moving westward around the base of the upper ridge. Guidance is suggesting a break down of the upper ridge by mid week as large scale troughing develops along the Mississippi River Valley out of Canada. Toward late week, northwest flow across the Central US should help to push another front toward the Southeast US.

Will forgo extending the heat advisory into Monday at this time. The surface boundary should help to get temperatures down a couple of degrees and a little drier air filtering into the area. With that said, it will still be hot, just maybe right below what we normally see for a heat advisory.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026

Much of the convection has dissipated. What is still out there should remain north and east of TAF locations. Low stratus and patchy fog are possible after 9z through sunrise, primarily at MGM, with lower confidence at AUO due to added moisture from earlier rains. Additional showers and storms will develop after 18z, driven by diurnal heating and destabilization. Highest confidence will be in the south at AUO and MGM, with medium confidence at EET and TCL.

Note: AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND at EET due to issues with the visibility sensor.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 40% through the weekend and into next week. Low to moderate (20 to 60%) chances of showers and storms will be present this weekend with the best chances in the south today. Low (10 to 30%) chances for showers and storms will be in the forecast daily next week. Fire weather concerns are currently low, but decreasing soil moisture will begin to raise these concerns by next week given a lack of forecast rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 98 72 91 / 20 20 10 20 Anniston 72 96 71 90 / 20 20 20 30 Birmingham 75 97 73 93 / 20 20 20 20 Tuscaloosa 74 101 74 98 / 20 30 20 20 Calera 73 97 73 93 / 20 30 20 20 Auburn 74 95 73 88 / 20 40 20 30 Montgomery 73 97 73 95 / 20 50 20 20 Troy 72 96 72 93 / 20 50 30 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.