textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026

- Heat: Moderate heat risk Monday through Wednesday with heat indices reaching 105 degrees.

- Tropical: No direct significant impacts are expected in Central Alabama from Tropical Depression Two, which has formed in the northern Gulf.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026

Most computer models, and the official NHC forecast, has what is currently TD2 moving generally westward over the next couple of days. This track will keep the system from having any direct significant impacts on our weather here in central Alabama.

Sort of indirectly, it looks like we will be in a bit of an area of subsidence just beyond the periphery of the tropical system. This should help to keep afternoon convection to a relative minimum through the day tomorrow, with the possible exception of the far southeastern counties. This will also help keep temperatures a bit higher than normal as well. Highest heat index values will be close to advisory criteria on Tuesday, and will continue the Heat Advisory as is.

We start to get into more of a northwest flow upper air pattern by the end of the week, as the big upper high becomes more established out west and a trough starts to dig into the east. This should get temperatures back down to more manageable levels, while also opening the door of opportunity for thunderstorm clusters/MCSs to affect our area.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026

Will continue with a VFR forecast across all central Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Mid day hi-res satellite imagery does show some enhanced cumulus around BHM, and that would be the most likely location to experience an afternoon thunderstorm. Elsewhere, rain chances are 20 percent or less, and I've opted to remove the PROB30 line for now.

There was a bit of fog around this morning. We'll have to watch for the potential for a repeat performance. However, with a relative lack of rain around (especially compared to yesterday), the fog should not be as much of a problem tonight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central AL. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 94 75 93 / 10 0 10 50 Anniston 73 93 75 92 / 10 10 10 50 Birmingham 75 94 76 94 / 10 0 0 30 Tuscaloosa 76 95 77 95 / 10 0 0 10 Calera 74 97 75 96 / 10 10 0 30 Auburn 74 90 75 90 / 10 30 10 50 Montgomery 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 40 Troy 73 90 74 91 / 10 40 10 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion- Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.