textproduct: NWS Birmingham

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026

- Fire Weather: There is a low to medium fire weather risk Thursday afternoon due to dry fuels and limited moisture.

- Halloween Evening: Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Whether the rainiest weather holds off until after trick-or-treat hours is unclear at this time, but you should at least plan for rainy impacts.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2026

An upper-level ridge continues to weaken across the Southeast as a shortwave trough lifts over the Northern Plains, yielding west- southwesterly flow aloft heading into the weekend. Over the next couple of days, Tropical Storm Vance will move inland along the western coast of Mexico, spreading tropical moisture across Mexico and into the Plains and Southeast by the weekend. Consequently, rain chances return to Central Alabama, with the highest probabilities expected Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Some timing uncertainty remains regarding onset, with a low chance for light rain during Halloween evening festivities.

Weak ridging will bring a return to dry conditions for much of next workweek. Guidance will continue to be monitored for mid-to- late week upper-level troughing, as recent trends suggest additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

Otherwise, light winds and mostly clear skies will favor patchy river fog during the late night and early morning hours over the next few days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours, with easterly winds from 5-8 knots during the day Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Regional high pressure will carry our rain-free weather through Friday. A gradual increase in moisture will push RHs up into the 35-45% range Thursday and Friday. A surge of deeper moisture will spread across the region over the weekend, leading to increased rain chances Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 78 48 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 79 49 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 79 53 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 81 52 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 78 53 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 78 56 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 81 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 79 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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