textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Thursday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Thursday.

- Thunderstorms: Portions of the region are under a level 1 to 2, out of 5, risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026

Convection has tapered down for the night and we are in a lull in activity until Thursday afternoon. Weak ridging will remain in place across either Eastern Conus or the Southeast US through the next 7 days. In the upper levels, a large Eastern Conus ridge is in place, centered over Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee. Through the short term, the center is expected to shift to the east toward Virginia and North Carolina. By Saturday, this will result in a weaker and flat ridge across the Southern US. Look for isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced convection as disturbances propagate around this ridge. Some strong storms may occur Thursday similar to today with gusty winds being the main threat. Also, afternoon heat indices will remain elevated for another day with a heat advisory continuing for the northwest two thirds of Central Alabama. This advisory may need to be continued into Friday and Saturday for at least the northwest half of the area if current guidance trends continue.

As we head into Sunday, guidance indicates a break in the upper ridge as a low digs over the Great Lakes. Slightly better moisture may be available on Sunday for medium chances for convection and more coverage with the best chances still in the afternoon. Medium chances for diurnal convection continue into the end of the extended period as the upper low is expected to dig across Eastern Conus on Monday. By Tuesday into Wednesday, this low should move off of the New England coast but leave broad troughing southwest into much of Conus and continued diurnal convection chances.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

Convection is continuing across Central Alabama with a flow from east to west this evening. This activity could linger for a few more hours across the area. I have a mention of PROB30s or TEMPO (EET) for all but AUO. Some IFR-MVFR low CIGs and reduced VSBYs are possible in storms. Otherwise, winds will go light and variable after storms end with east-northeast to southeast winds during the day Thursday 5-10kts (outside of convection) with mixing. More convection is expected on Thursday.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into the weekend, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The main axis of rain activity will shift to the northern half of Central Alabama Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 97 76 96 75 / 30 30 40 10 Anniston 96 75 95 75 / 30 30 30 10 Birmingham 96 77 96 77 / 30 20 40 10 Tuscaloosa 95 77 96 76 / 20 20 30 10 Calera 98 76 98 75 / 20 20 30 10 Auburn 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 95 75 96 76 / 10 10 20 0 Troy 95 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.