textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

- Heat & Humidity: A significant warming trend begins late this week; heat indices are expected to approach or exceed 100 degrees daily from Friday through early next week. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk over the majority of the region.

- Thunderstorm Threat: A complex of storms or a decaying MCS may reach southwestern portions of Central Alabama tomorrow afternoon, with localized strong wind gusts possible.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

Surface analysis reveals a cold front draped across the southern half of the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing through much of the evening to the south of this boundary. Looking out to our west, another MCS is riding along the front, moving through the ArkLaTex region. Latest CAMs continue to hint at this activity fizzling out before making it to Alabama. We will need to keep an eye out for convective development along any outflow boundaries this system sends into our area. Another H5 shortwave will rotate along the eastern periphery of the ridge to our west, moving across the southern half of the state. This should help support any convective activity that is able to develop. Any storms that develop will be able to tap into a moist airmass, allowing for brief periods of heavy rainfall. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for our southwestern counties tomorrow. Additional development is likely on Thursday as the upper level impulse slowly exits the region.

By the weekend, upper level ridging takes control, bringing drier and warmer conditions to the region. If any showers or storms develop, they will be mainly diurnally driven. Temperatures will warm over the weekend into early next week with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices from 100-105 degrees. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk over the majority of the region.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Winds will become light and variable overnight, increasing to around 10 knots out of the north through the day Wednesday. We opted to introduce a PROB30 for TSRA across the northern sites from 20Z-00Z Wednesday evening. Confidence is fairly low as the latest CAMs struggle with how much of a MCS to our west makes it out of Mississippi.

Note: METARs from AUO are available but missing data; therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Daily chances for showers and storms continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Drier and warmer conditions move in over the weekend. However, ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 60 85 66 88 / 0 10 20 20 Anniston 61 85 67 88 / 0 0 20 20 Birmingham 63 86 69 88 / 0 20 30 30 Tuscaloosa 65 86 70 89 / 0 50 50 40 Calera 63 89 68 90 / 0 30 40 30 Auburn 65 87 69 87 / 0 0 20 20 Montgomery 65 87 69 88 / 0 30 40 30 Troy 64 88 68 88 / 0 10 40 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.