textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026

- Persistent Heat: Above normal temperatures continue into this weekend, with high temperatures reaching as high as the middle 90s to near 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended or strenuous outdoor activities.

- Severe Storms: There's a level 1 of 5 (Marginal) threat for strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds up to 60 MPH will be the primary threat.

- Rain Chances: Low end rain chances return starting Friday afternoon continuing into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026

Not much change in the overall picture from last night. Water vapor imagery reveals a stout upper level ridge anchored across the southeastern US and an upper level low churning over the Northwest. The pattern begins to change through the day Friday and over the weekend as an inverted trough takes shape across the Western Atlantic. This feature will shift west across Florida, eventually into the eastern Gulf, while nudging the upper ridge back to the west. During this time, it will likely become a closed upper level low. This will open the door to increased rain chances across Central Alabama. Latest CAMs hint at some very isolated convection Friday afternoon. Most locations are likely to remain dry as we wrap up the work week. Thunderstorms development associated with an upper low on Saturday is expected on Saturday. Low-end rain chances will initially be confined to our eastern areas but will gradually spread across the state as a plume of deeper moisture spreads across the region. With the heat and instability in place, a few of these storms may produce damaging winds. As we head towards the middle of the work week, the upper low deteriorates. However, ample moisture left in place will lead to diurnally driven convection.

Temperatures look to remain warm over the coming days with highs in the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across the western half of the area are likely to touch 100 degrees briefly on Friday and Saturday. Slightly drier air in place will help keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria, generally in the 100-103 degree range. Increased rain chances/cloud cover next week will knock several degrees off our highs with temps settling into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours with any significant rain chances across the region holding off until after 12z Saturday. High pressure remains in place and should keep skies mostly clear aside from a few high clouds. Winds will generally be light and variable through the day.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend is forecast to average between 30 to 40%. Shower and thunderstorm chances are unlikely through Friday, but low chances will return this weekend in the eastern portions of Central Alabama and for all by early next week. Winds will remain light through the next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 97 72 97 70 / 10 10 30 20 Anniston 95 71 96 69 / 10 10 40 30 Birmingham 97 74 97 72 / 0 10 20 20 Tuscaloosa 100 73 100 72 / 0 0 10 10 Calera 97 73 98 70 / 0 10 30 20 Auburn 95 72 94 71 / 10 10 60 40 Montgomery 95 72 97 72 / 0 0 40 30 Troy 95 70 96 69 / 0 0 50 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.