textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1127 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026

- Above average temperatures expected through much of the upcoming forecast.

- Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms return from Thursday and into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026

Our current satellite picture is indicating some spotty lower clouds across the mid section of C AL as well as some mid/high clouds across the NRN 1/3 of AL. There are low stratus clouds developing across S MS and over GA. The area over MS is expected to expand N and EWD with some coverage into the far WRN C AL counties tonight. The stratus in GA should also expand WWD into the far ERN parts of C AL. Some areas of fog may occur in the E with this low stratus toward sunrise, but may only end up lasting an hour or two before we start getting sufficient mixing.

SRLY onshore low level flow looks to be present for the entire seven day forecast with warm, well above normal readings for most. However, we should still have a rain free airmass for at least one more day for Wed. In the upper levels, a shortwave will push EWD out of the Rockies and across the Plains now into Thu as a stronger low digs SWD across the WRN US. This will push our upper Gulf ridge to over FL and into the WRN Atlantic to create SW upper flow into AL by Thu. We should have a few ripples traversing around the shortwave through the SW flow for a small chance of a shower/tstorm by Thu afternoon in the SE counties and again for Fri afternoon with a little better chance for all. Overall moisture across AL continues to increase into the weekend as the upper low digs across the W Coast of the US becoming a closed low just off of the Baja Peninsula. Over the weekend through Tue, the low will slowly work its way EWD into AZ and the WRN half of Mexico. This feature will eject out bits of energy at times through the SW flow into AL to help generate off/on convection over the weekend into the beginning of next week enhanced with heating. Temperatures will remain well above normal with no significant change in airmass expected through the weekend into the first part of next week.

08

Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1114 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026

We'll remain cloudy for much of the day as a wedge front is stretched across Central AL. Broad high pressure should remain in place through much of the week with generally zonal flow aloft. This will lead to continued rain-free conditions for the next several days and temperatures remaining above normal for this time of year.

A weak frontal boundary will approach the region late in the week leading to increased rain chances beginning Friday. Like the last few frontal boundary, this one is again expected to slow and stall across the region, leading to persistent rain chances through the weekend and into early next week.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026

Current satellite imagery shows an IFR/MVFR cloud deck expanding northward over southern Mississippi and developing fog moving inland over southeastern Georgia. VFR conditions are currently present across Central AL, but will need to monitor both the advecting low-level clouds and fog. Currently expecting the fog to reach AUO by 10-11Z with IFR/LIFR expected for a few hours thereafter until the fog mixes out. Low ceilings should remain just west of TCL, but will keep an eye on trends in case amendments are needed. Probabilities for aviation impacts at the remaining sites are too low for a mention in the TAFs at this time.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Rain free conditions are expected to generally continue through the next couple of days with Min RHs in the 40-50% range. Rain chances increase for Friday into the weekend and the first part of next week as a weak boundary pushes into the Deep South to our west and stalls.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1120 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026

Here are the record highs for the upcoming week that may be close to tying or breaking with our current forecast.

March 4: KEET: 84/2022 KTCL: 83/1976

March 5: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 83/2022 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 85/1989

March 6: KBHM: 83/1974 KEET: 81/2023 KANB: 84/1974 KTCL: 83/1974 KMGM: 86/2022

March 7: KBHM: 84/1956 KEET: 83/2023 KANB: 85/1974 KTCL: 85/2023 KMGM: 87/2023

March 8: KEET: 81/2000

March 9: KEET: 80/2016 KMGM: 85/1974

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 51 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 52 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 55 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 56 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 54 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 54 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 53 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 53 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.