textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026

- Cooler but still at or above normal temperatures are expected behind the front Thursday and Friday. - Very high (90-100%) rain chances are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this time the severe threat remains very low due to very limited instability.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026

Through Friday:

The cold front is beginning to reach the I-20 corridor with temperatures dropping into the 50s behind it. Since the shortwave has pushed east of the area, only a broken line of light showers is located along it. The front and associated showers will drop southward through the afternoon. CAMs indicate potential for some isolated to widely scattered moderate showers to develop along a pre-frontal trough where some weak instability will be present. Equilibrium levels are right around -10C, so the chances for any showers to produce lightning are less than 10 percent at any given location. Dry air advection and light northerly winds will result in cooler temperatures overnight, getting down within a couple degrees of freezing in our far northern counties. Dry northwest flow aloft will be in place Thursday and Friday, with occasional mainly high clouds at times. The front will remain stalled to our south. Pleasant conditions are expected with temperatures still a little below normal. Will note fire danger will be a bit elevated given the very dry air mass, though light winds will prevent risk of any rapid spread/red flag concerns.

Saturday/Sunday:

The next southern stream shortwave is currently near California, and will move eastward across the southern CONUS this weekend along with an associated surface low. Some showers may develop by Saturday afternoon, but the overall trend is drier. Overall beginning to see better agreement between ensemble clusters on the synoptic features, with typical amounts of uncertainty on the mesoscale details. In general a large area of rain/potentially a QLCS will move in late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, moving quickly eastward across the state by midday. As is typical shear is plentiful but instability is very questionable. The warm front and associated lower 60s dew points will be attempting to lift northward as the QLCS moves in. Usually the most likely scenario in these cases is that the convection outruns the surface-based instability, as depicted by the majority of the guidance. This would especially be the case if convection develops along the coast given the lower latitude of the shortwave, disrupting the northward advection of instability. Ultimately it's too early to know for sure if just enough instability can build in ahead of the line (on the order of a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE) for any marginal severe threat to develop in our far southern counties, but the overall threat is low at this time. Will also note that guidance does show more instability developing behind the line with the upper low. It's always important to not just look at CAPE plots in this situation, but to also look at where the convection is relative to the CAPE. Though if there is sufficient moisture, then some thunderstorms could develop by afternoon with a low threat of small hail. While minor flooding of poor drainage could occur, the system should be progressive enough to prevent widespread flooding.

Behind the system, above normal to well above normal temperatures are expected next week.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026

Most sites have already improved to VFR with AUO the only remaining site. Look for this site to improve by 3z. Otherwise some low level clouds will remain for MGM and AUO through 6z, then clearing and high cirrus. Winds will remain at 7 knots or less through the afternoon.

16

FIRE WEATHER

RH values drop into the 20 to 30 percent range Thursday and Friday afternoons, resulting in elevated fire danger, but winds will be light. Another round of rain and perhaps storms will move through over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 33 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 34 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 37 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 38 66 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 37 66 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 41 66 41 66 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 42 67 40 69 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 44 68 41 70 / 30 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.