textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026

- Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026

In the lower levels this afternoon, a stationary boundary is situated well to our northwest and north, from AR into TN/KY. It will meander a bit through Thursday before fizzling out. In the upper levels, there is a weakening upper low over the Mid MS River Valley that is expected to open up and be absorbed into the main zonal flow to the north of it by late Thursday. Through the short term that will help to focus our diurnal convection generally to the northern third of Central Alabama with more isolated activity in the south. Also in the upper levels, flat ridging over the SW US coast is expected to expand across the Western US this weekend. Guidance has a shortwave progressing eastward out of it Friday that will allow for troughing to build across portions of Eastern Conus this weekend. That with plenty of low level onshore flow moisture will allow for continued increased storm chances for this weekend. In addition, the upper flow will in turn help to nudge a rare July surface front southward. There is a medium chance that this front may have enough push to get through Central Alabama during the first part of next week in the Monday and Tuesday time frame. The extra cloud cover and rain chances will help to keep temperature down a couple of degrees. However, we are not expecting any major cool down at this time as the boundary may stall and push back northward by the middle of next week.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026

A weak upper level low is expected to slowly move to our north through tomorrow. This will help provide some support for thunderstorm development during the afternoon on Thursday. Otherwise, generally a diurnal pattern for winds is expected as low level ridging remains in place. Generally light to calm winds overnight, increasing to 5-7kts during the day. Given the extra forcing from the upper low tomorrow, I'll include Prob30s for TSRA at all sites due to the convection being more widespread compared to Wednesday.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue. Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain low through the beginning of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 20 50 30 50 Anniston 72 90 73 90 / 20 40 30 50 Birmingham 74 91 74 92 / 20 40 30 50 Tuscaloosa 73 91 74 92 / 20 40 20 30 Calera 73 94 73 95 / 20 40 30 40 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 30 Montgomery 75 93 74 93 / 10 40 20 20 Troy 74 93 73 92 / 10 40 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.