textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026

- Thunderstorm Threat: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for areas southwest of Birmingham and Montgomery. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts.

- Heat & Humidity: A significant warming trend begins late this week; heat indices are expected to approach or exceed 100 degrees daily from Friday through early next week. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk over the majority of the region.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

Surface analysis reveals a cold front draped across the southern half of the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing through much of the evening to the south of this boundary. Looking out to our west, another MCS is riding along the front, moving through the ArkLaTex region. Latest CAMs continue to hint at this activity fizzling out before making it to Alabama. We will need to keep an eye out for convective development along any outflow boundaries this system sends into our area. Another H5 shortwave will rotate along the eastern periphery of the ridge to our west, moving across the southern half of the state. This should help support any convective activity that is able to develop. Any storms that develop will be able to tap into a moist airmass, allowing for brief periods of heavy rainfall. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for our southwestern counties tomorrow. Additional development is likely on Thursday as the upper level impulse slowly exits the region.

By the weekend, upper level ridging takes control, bringing drier and warmer conditions to the region. If any showers or storms develop, they will be mainly diurnally driven. Temperatures will warm over the weekend into early next week with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices from 100-105 degrees. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk over the majority of the region.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026

Satellite reveals areas of river fog early this morning. This could intermittently affect MGM and TCL through ~14z. Otherwise, light winds and some VFR clouds prevail today, but... A compact weather system arriving from Mississippi should spawn isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for the southwest portion of Alabama. Models differ a bit on the track and breadth of this activity, so have continued PROB30 pending radar/satellite trends. Patchy fog may again develop tonight.

Note: METARs from AUO are available but missing data; therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues. EET METARs are not making it out to the world but are viewable from in-office at NWS Birmingham, so will continue their TAF as normal.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

Daily chances for showers and storms continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Drier and warmer conditions move in over the weekend. However, ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 86 66 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 Anniston 86 67 88 70 / 10 10 20 10 Birmingham 86 69 89 72 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 86 69 89 72 / 30 20 30 10 Calera 89 68 91 71 / 20 20 20 10 Auburn 87 69 87 71 / 10 20 10 10 Montgomery 87 69 88 71 / 10 30 30 10 Troy 88 68 87 70 / 10 30 50 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.