textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 438 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026

- Rain will linger through this morning across the southern portions of our area.

- A dry and above normal temperature pattern is expected to return and continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1144 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

The KBMX radar has been pretty busy this evening as showers and storms continue to track across the region. We have seen several strong storms earlier in the evening capable of producing some pretty impressive hail. The first storm of the day rode along the nose of a theta-e ridge right into Central AL where it produced a thin tornado. We will be surveying that storm tomorrow morning. Our severe risk is just about over for the evening with the loss of instability. As the front begins to stall, we will transition to a hydro threat that we are currently monitoring. Forecast soundings earlier today hinted at a deep warm cloud layer which would help promote high rainfall rates. We have seen this scenario play out with MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates generally ranging from 3-5"/hr. The flooding threat will be closely monitored as we head through the overnight hours.

Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave carving into the southeast US as a surface cold front slowly progresses south across the state. Shower and storm activity will gradually shift south across the state through the day Friday as the front regains some movement. Drier air and upper ridging will then move in for the weekend. This weekend looks to be rather pleasant with highs generally in the 70s. Rain chances quickly return to the forecast early next week as our another front and H5 shortwave head our way.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 438 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026

IFR ceilings and/or fog are expected at KTCL, KBHM, and KEET this morning in the wake of overnight convection. Conditions will gradually improve after 15Z.

At KMGM and KAUO, rain will continue for a few more hours, and MVFR ceilings appear likely after 13Z through 18-20Z.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air gradually filters into the region Friday into the weekend with RH values falling to 30-40%. Light winds will help negate fire weather concerns. Moisture begins to recover early next week with min RH values back into the 40-50% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 42 72 42 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 70 44 73 45 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 70 47 73 48 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 72 44 75 47 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 71 45 75 46 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 68 52 71 50 / 50 10 10 0 Montgomery 71 51 74 49 / 40 10 0 0 Troy 71 53 73 49 / 70 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.