textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 623 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026

- Hurricane Isaias will continue to move towards the Northern Gulf Coast, making landfall Friday evening.

- Winds will gust as high as 40 to 50 mph late Friday night through Saturday, with the potential for isolated higher gusts to 60 mph, resulting in the potential for numerous downed trees and power lines.

- Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches will result in the potential for flash flooding, especially in urban and other poor drainage areas.

- A threat for isolated tornadoes may develop across along and east of Interstate 65 on Saturday, with the highest potential near the Georgia state line. Confidence is low to medium at this time.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026

Hurricane Isaias Overview:

Hurricane Isaias is currently a Category 1 hurricane north of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane tonight as it begins to accelerate northward, before making landfall Friday evening along either the Alabama or Florida Panhandle coastlines. After landfall, it will quickly undergo extratropical transition as it turns northwestward, occludes, and merges into a deepening upper low over Mississippi on Saturday. While the surface low quickly weakens, an expanding area of strong 925-700mb wind fields will overspread much of Central Alabama Friday night. For this discussion, will break things down temporally rather than by individual threats.

Now through Friday afternoon:

Warm and dry conditions continue today, providing good weather to complete preparations. Light to moderate rain will begin from south to north from late morning through afternoon due to isentropic lift and 850-700mb frontogenesis. Gusty winds will begin across at least the southern counties as strong easterly low-level flow develops with a tightening pressure gradient due to high pressure to the northeast.

Friday night:

Conditions will quickly deteriorate Friday night. Widespread precipitation will already be present by early evening, with the strongest winds during the evening hours in the southern half of the area. The worst of the winds will be midnight Friday night into Saturday morning. The sustained tropical storm force wind probabilities appear a bit underdone due to the pressure gradient with high pressure to the east, and are not representative of the potential for damaging wind gusts. An inversion/stable layer will be in place north of a warm front closer to the coast, but forecast soundings do still indicate significant winds close to the surface. Highest wind gusts look to be across the southern counties, but would also expect high wind gusts at higher elevations/ridge tops further north. Expect wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph with isolated gusts to 60 mph. Given the expected impacts of numerous downed trees and power outages, wind-related watches are necessary. With the transition to extratropical, picking a location to switch from tropical to non-tropical wind products is tricky. In general I-20 was chosen as the rough cutoff between tropical storm and high wind watches. This difference is really only relevant to "weather nerds"; for most people, all you need to know is it's going to be windy whether you're in a tropical storm watch or high wind watch.

High-res guidance indicates the heaviest rainfall during the overnight hours Friday night will likely be across West Alabama as well as our far southern counties. This area over West Alabama will be associated with the remnant core of the circulation becoming a commahead feature with extratropical transition. An additional north-south band of heavier rain will be setting up by Saturday morning, more likely in western Georgia but potentially including parts of far eastern Alabama. There will likely be some lower rainfall totals between these bands, but for simplicity's sake have issued a Flood Watch for the entire area given the tropical rains expected and potential for localized flooding between the two bands.

Looking at the tornado threat Friday night, the high-res guidance looks pretty stable over our area north of the warm front, suggesting this threat Friday night remains closer to the coast. We will have to keep an eye on the warm front if it reaches Pike and Barbour Counties in the pre-dawn hours, but the threat largely holds off until after sunrise and will be discussed further below.

Saturday and Saturday night:

Gusty to damaging winds will be ongoing across the area Saturday morning. Higher winds will decrease from south to north through the morning as the pressure gradient relaxes, but will remain gusty through the day with better mixing and wind fields aloft remaining enhanced. A mid-level dry slot will overspread the region, resulting in an overall decrease in heavier rain, but showery precipitation and a few thunderstorms will remain possible given available low-level moisture and the upper low. A band of heavier rain may also linger near the Georgia state line though heaviest amounts will be in Georgia.

We will be watching instability trends closely as the warm front lifts northward Saturday morning, mainly for areas east of I-65, while a developing cold or occluded front serves as the western boundary of any tornado threat. In general, instability will be increasing as low-level shear and SRH is decreasing. However, there could still be enough of an overlap of instability and shear for an isolated tornado threat during the morning, though there are indications that the main north-south convective band will have moved into Georgia at that point. By afternoon and potentially into the evening, we will have to watch for any re- development of convection. Decent deep layer shear will be present along with somewhat marginal low-level shear/SRH, which could still be supportive of isolated tornadoes. The relatively highest tornado threat will be near the Chattahoochee Valley.

Sunday onward:

Some cloud cover and light rain/drizzle lingers on Sunday before the upper low finally lifts out. Beyond that, next week looks dry with a return to your regularly scheduled dry conditions and above normal temperatures as ridging builds.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF period, before conditions begin to deteriorate by 09/20z ahead of Hurricane Isaias. Winds will begin to increase at AUO and MGM, with RA beginning around this time as well. Conditions are only expected to get worse as time goes on, with heavy category reductions anticipated through the weekend.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected through Friday morning. RH values will generally be in the 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon. Rain chances and humidity begin to increase across southeast portions of the area Friday, while northwestern portions of Central Alabama will have RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range. Fire danger for northwestern areas may be elevated Friday as winds begin to pick up ahead of an approaching tropical system. Widespread rain and high winds are expected Friday night and Saturday as Tropical Storm Isaias moves through the area. Drier air moves quickly back into the region early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 61 82 60 72 / 0 0 100 100 Anniston 62 81 62 73 / 0 10 100 100 Birmingham 64 83 61 73 / 0 10 100 100 Tuscaloosa 63 87 63 74 / 0 10 100 100 Calera 63 81 62 73 / 0 10 100 100 Auburn 64 76 63 74 / 0 40 100 100 Montgomery 63 80 64 78 / 0 40 100 80 Troy 63 76 64 77 / 0 60 100 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.

High Wind Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee- Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following counties: Bibb-Chambers- Chilton-Clay-Coosa-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Perry-Pickens- Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa- Tuscaloosa.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Autauga- Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery- Pike.