textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk (levels 1/2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms for a large part of Central Alabama Friday and Saturday. - Flash Flooding will also be possible with this upcoming system, as widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected. Isolated amounts up to 5 inches will be possible in areas that see the heaviest convective banding. - Temperatures will quickly fall behind the front, returning to below average to start the new workweek.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026

Fog and low stratus has been very stubborn this morning, but that should change by noon or 1 PM as the boundary layer becomes more mixed. Temperatures this afternoon should still reach the 70s in many locations.

Speaking of stubborn, a sprawling subtropical 500 mb ridge will hold firm over the next 48 hours as an elongated and multi-wave trough ejects from the western and central CONUS. A pipeline unseasonably rich moisture, already established across the western Gulf and Lower Mississippi Valley, will fuel a band of convection on Friday within a confluence zone at the tail end of a front. With non-existent height falls, this convective band will slowly move across our northwestern counties to along the I-59/20 corridor Friday morning. Eventually this band should stall just south of the I-59/20 corridor during the afternoon and act as an effective front. This will significantly limit the northward extent of surface-based instability Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches appear possible with the first round of convection.

The second round of convection will ramp up Friday night into Saturday morning as stronger shortwave ejects towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. This activity is expected to train over the same areas for several hours and perhaps over the same areas that receive heavy rainfall from the first round of convection. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches appear likely in a wide swath centered over the I-59/20 corridor with isolated amounts up to 5 inches. This could result in isolated flash flooding, mainly in urban areas. There is also a non-zero threat for a tornado or isolated damaging winds Friday evening into Saturday morning.

Colder and dry conditions will make a return for Sunday through Tuesday.

87/Grantham

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026

Stubborn LIFR conditions with very low stratus and fog should resolve by 19z with daytime heating/mixing. Ceilings should improve to IFR and then MVFR through 00z. IFR stratus is likely to return after 06z with moist southerly flow in place ahead of an approaching front. KTCL and KBHM stand the best chance at seeing passing showers late in the TAF period before heavier rain arrives around 18z.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

A very moist airmass will remain in place through Saturday ahead of a storm system that is expected to bring widespread rainfall on Friday and Saturday. Much colder air, with lower dewpoints, will spread in behind a cold front on Sunday. No fire weather concerns are expected through the weekend. Humidity levels will need to be watched early to middle next week, although RH values are currently forecast to stay above critical thresholds at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 59 68 59 / 0 40 80 100 Anniston 70 59 71 59 / 0 30 80 90 Birmingham 70 63 68 60 / 10 50 80 100 Tuscaloosa 73 64 71 60 / 10 60 80 100 Calera 71 61 71 60 / 10 40 80 90 Auburn 70 58 74 64 / 10 10 40 50 Montgomery 75 62 77 67 / 10 10 50 60 Troy 75 60 77 65 / 10 0 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.