textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across northern and western parts of Alabama on Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools ahead of an incoming boundary.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 141 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

Scattered cloud cover has developed this afternoon, with a growing cumulus field along and south of a stalled boundary, from Troy to Tuscaloosa to Hamilton. Guidance continues to indicate the development of some showers and storms later this afternoon and into the evening generally along this boundary. However, overall coverage is expected to be low. By tomorrow, very high precipitable water (PWAT) values of >2.2-2.3" will advance northward into the warm sector of an approaching trough across the Central U.S.. A surface low currently over Iowa will move over Illinois by tomorrow, driving a cold front into the region tomorrow evening. Models are indicating a morning round of generally sub-severe showers and storms to sweep through the area between 7 am and noon, followed by the potential for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and southward, ahead of the front. This will bring mainly a damaging wind threat to Central Alabama starting during the mid-afternoon hours and lasting toward midnight. A level 1 Marginal risk has been introduced for many of the counties in the northern and western part of our area. With high PWATs, very heavy rainfall may occur with passing thunderstorms. However, overall rain amounts currently do not look to be enough to cause widescale flooding concerns.

Additional afternoon thunderstorm development is currently forecast for Sunday afternoon across eastern Central Alabama as the entire system advances to the east. No severe threat has been introduced as of this forecast cycle. The aforementioned trough will get left behind in the upper Ohio Valley by the start of the week, becoming a cutoff low that will have some effects on Central Alabama. Namely, low to medium rain chances will be maintained each afternoon through next week, predominantly across eastern Central Alabama, in association with the upper low to the north. Additionally, we will see a bit of a break in high temperatures early to mid week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A ridge will then begin to build in from the west by late next week, with afternoon highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day and into the early overnight, with scattered cloud cover currently observed on satellite across southern and western areas. Hazy conditions are being observed at EET and TCL due to wildfire smoke, causing slight reductions in vis. Some shower and storm activity remains supported by models this evening, so PROB30s have been maintained this afternoon/evening for MGM and TCL. A warm, moist airmass will advect in from the southwest, bringing lower cigs into much of the region by early tomorrow morning. Guidance currently suggests cigs dropping to MVFR by 09- 10z and IFR by 11-12z. AUO, MGM, and EET will likely see the most time at IFR. TCL and BHM will remain at MVFR for most of the time, especially TCL, where IFR cigs were not included with this issuance. MVFR cigs may persist at all sites through late morning. A morning round of rain and storms will develop by/after 13z and sweep eastward. This should clear out by midday and has been included on the TAF for each site.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help keep fire weather concerns in check for the week. MinRH values are expected to remain above 45 percent through Wednesday. Rain is expected at times over the weekend. Some drier air begins to work in from the east by next Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 89 71 87 / 30 80 80 30 Anniston 72 86 71 86 / 30 80 80 30 Birmingham 74 88 71 86 / 40 70 70 20 Tuscaloosa 74 90 71 87 / 40 50 60 10 Calera 73 88 71 87 / 40 60 80 20 Auburn 74 83 73 86 / 20 80 70 50 Montgomery 74 88 73 89 / 30 60 70 30 Troy 73 85 72 87 / 30 70 60 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.