textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

- Storms: Rain chances increase from mid to late this week with periodic showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered Wednesday and potentially more widespread Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

Surface observations and earlier visible satellite imagery indicated a few areas of surface boundaries and convergence across the area. While the weather pattern and nighttime stability will promote fair-weather conditions overall, some high-res guidance show the potential for a very sparse occurrence of short-lived showers tonight, likely associated with these features; nothing significant, just a don't-be-surprised mention.

From Wednesday through Friday, a weakness in the 500 mb ridge will exist thanks to longwave troughing near the Great Lakes region. This setup will allow for several mid-level impulses to meander across Alabama and its vicinity. Associated lift and an increase in dew points/moisture will promote periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially from afternoon to evening. Ensemble data continue to suggest scattered coverage on Wednesday, followed by potentially more widespread activity on Thursday and Friday as a surface front approaches from the north. Shower and thunderstorm coverage during the weekend seems to decrease as 500 mb ridging becomes a bit more defined.

No temperature extremes are noted through the forecast period, featuring seasonal highs and lows alongside mugginess.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026

The primary risk for terminal impacts through Wednesday comes with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms, generally from 18z onward, though isolated activity could occur as early as 15z in the vicinity of TCL. In the absence of showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions prevaiL.

A secondary risk involves the low (10-20%) probability for reduced visibility due to fog at MGM and/or AUO early Wednesday morning. It is excluded from the current TAF given drier conditions today, but warrants monitoring.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the next several days. Increasing dew points and an approaching weather system are forecast to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, potentially becoming more widespread on Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 93 70 91 / 0 30 20 50 Anniston 68 91 70 89 / 0 20 20 50 Birmingham 72 92 72 89 / 10 50 30 50 Tuscaloosa 73 94 72 91 / 10 60 40 50 Calera 71 92 72 90 / 0 50 30 50 Auburn 72 90 72 86 / 0 40 30 60 Montgomery 73 95 73 92 / 0 30 30 60 Troy 71 94 71 90 / 10 40 30 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.