textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026

- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Threats including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.

- There is a medium to high chance for low temperatures reaching the mid to upper 30s Friday morning when conditions may become supportive of patchy frost.

- There is a low to medium chance for low temperatures to reach freezing next Tuesday morning for portions of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals our next trough digging across the Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed back to our west across Texas and Oklahoma. This cold front will slide east through the day Wednesday, bringing us our next round of showers and thunderstorms. Overall, our thinking has not changed much since our last forecast update.

We could see a few isolated showers and storms develop ahead of the line across our northwestern areas during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Otherwise, the main line of storms remains on track to move into our northwest around 00Z and eventually clear our southeast by 12Z Thursday. All modes of severe weather will be in play as the latest guidance suggests a swath of instability from 800-1300 J/kg along with sufficient shear, 50-60 knots. Any storms that develop ahead of the front will be able to tap into a warm sector characterized by SRH values from 100-150 m2/s2 which would present a threat for a brief tornado or two. We remain under a Marginal to Slight (Level 1 to 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms on Wednesday.

In addition to the severe threat, we will need to closely monitor for any flooding concerns. WPC currently has much of the region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. While not expecting widespread flooding concerns, we could see some issues quickly develop especially across those areas that saw 1-3" of rain Monday night. Forecast soundings suggest we could see some high rain rates once again. 00Z HREF LPMM is picking up on the flooding threat as it hints at a few pockets of 2-2.5" across the area.

Rain chances drop off rather quickly on Thursday as much drier air surges into the region. High temps on Thursday will run about 20 degrees colder than what we will see on Wednesday. Low temps Friday morning look to drop down into the mid 30s across the northern half of Central AL. Wouldn't be surprised to see our typical cold drainage area near the freezing mark Friday morning.

Dry air in place will keep us rain-free through the first half of the weekend. Rain chances creep back into the forecast Sunday and Monday as another trough ejects south out of the Northern Plains while sending a cold front our way.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026

All TAF sites are VFR ATTM. MVFR-IFR low stratus will move NWD into C AL during the next few hours from ~8-10z and will remain through mid morning going back to VFR ~16-18z. Winds will be SSW- SW tonight into the day ahead of our next weather system moving in from the NW with convection ahead of a front. Introducing SHRA/ TSRA after 21z near TCL and spreading WWD during the evening hours.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances will be on the rise Wednesday through Thursday morning as our next cold front moves through the region. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will shift out of the north Thursday behind the front. RHs will drop into the low 30% range by Thursday afternoon and again on Friday afternoon as the drier air mass is in place. Moisture gradually recovers over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 80 41 59 34 / 30 100 20 0 Anniston 82 45 59 36 / 20 90 30 0 Birmingham 81 43 59 39 / 40 100 20 0 Tuscaloosa 83 45 62 36 / 50 100 20 0 Calera 83 45 61 37 / 30 100 30 0 Auburn 82 51 63 41 / 0 90 60 0 Montgomery 85 49 63 39 / 10 90 50 0 Troy 84 51 65 41 / 0 90 60 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.