textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 545 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026

- Well above-average temperatures are expected through the weekend and again late next week.

- Dry conditions will continue, with little to no rainfall forecast over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026

At this point, I wish I had something new to relay from a forecast standpoint, but the reality is....I just don't. The region will remain under the influence of the two ridges through the weekend, before the cold front moves through the region on Monday. While there is still a low chance at some temperatures variations with the frontal passage, the forecast seems to be coming into better agreement on front placement. In turn, highs should range in the upper-60s north, to low-80's south through the middle of the new workweek.

Low-end rain chances have been introduced for our north counties into Wednesday, as they get clipped by another shortwave. However, these probabilities are very low, with very little measurable rainfall expected. Thankfully, this pattern may finally break down into next weekend, as a much stronger cold front starts to drop through the Plains and Midwest. Having said that, front timing and strength still remain in question, so this is something we'll keep an eye on over the next week to see if any kind of meaningful change is in store for us.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be higher tomorrow, generally SW at 10-11 kts, gusting to 15-18 at times.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will remain highly variable through the weekend, as conditions are expected to remain hot and dry. Because of that, afternoon mixing may be more than expected, lowering the forecast values. In general, MinRH values should linger in the low-30 and 40% through Sunday, before dropping even more behind a front by Tuesday. Given the warming trend, and the lack of forecast rainfall, fire weather concerns may start to increase by the middle of next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1028 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026

Record high temperatures in danger of breaking over the next few days:

March 21: KEET: 87/2017 KANB: 86/2017 KTCL: 88/2017

March 22: KEET: 81/2011 KANB: 84/1904 KTCL: 86/1995

March 23: KEET: 82/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 55 84 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 56 84 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 59 84 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 57 84 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 56 84 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 56 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 56 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 55 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.