textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher amounts possible by Friday with the tropical system and cold front. Total amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible through Monday.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.

- There is also a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Friday as the cold front works south into the area. The main threat will be damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026

We are currently seeing a boundary lift northward from the Gulf coast. Showers and storms will stream into the south through the afternoon and then slide northward through the state by the evening. Activity should remain under control for the most part. Rainfall will be efficient and could be heavy with the stronger storms through the afternoon, with a lull in activity through midnight. The NHC has officially named the system in the Gulf Tropical Storm Arthur. The outer rain shield from the remnants of Arthur should begin moving into the southwest after 1 to 3 AM. The exact extent of the rain shield will be determined by the track of Arthur over the next 12 hours. A few models indicate a more southern route, while others stay across the central section of the state for Thursday. We will need to continue to monitor for brief, spin-up tornadoes and damaging winds Thursday morning into the afternoon as the system slides east while dissipating in strength. The current forecast from the NHC still has the system weakening to a depression by the time it reaches western Louisiana before crossing into Mississippi. Besides the low tornado threat, flash flooding may also be possible with any banding features as the system moves through.

High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves into the area and interacts with the remaining tropical moisture. The main concerns are flash flooding and damaging winds. There is a marginal risk through the afternoon on Friday.

As the front pushes through on Friday afternoon, rain chances will persist through the weekend due to the boundary stalling and returning onshore flow. Another cold front may slip into the northern half of the area Sunday night into Monday, which could bring stronger storms. There is currently no consensus on how far south the front will penetrate, so confidence remains low regarding potential impacts. Temperatures will slowly creep back up, contributing to diurnal convection into the first part of next week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026

A small line of showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving the south right now and will impact the north in the next few hours. This convection will clear by 23 to 00z, with a lull in rainfall through 5 to 7z. The eastern edge of the rain shield from the tropical system will slide into the western side of the area by 9 to 11z and then slowly edge east through the morning. Winds will also increase through morning to generally 12 to 15 kts with higher gusts. Ceilings will drop to IFR as well and should persist through the rest of the TAF cycle. Confidence in thunderstorms on Thursday is too low to include at this time.

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FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 80 71 85 / 30 90 60 70 Anniston 73 78 71 83 / 30 90 70 70 Birmingham 74 79 71 85 / 50 90 70 80 Tuscaloosa 74 81 72 85 / 70 100 60 90 Calera 73 78 71 86 / 50 100 70 80 Auburn 73 77 71 83 / 30 100 90 90 Montgomery 74 78 72 85 / 60 100 90 90 Troy 74 78 72 84 / 50 100 100 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.