textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026

- Cold and dry conditions will continue through Tuesday.

- A cold front will bring rain to the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

- We're monitoring the setup this weekend for potential winter weather. At this time, confidence is low regarding specific details.

DISCUSSION

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1239 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026

Broad mid to upper-level troughing over the Eastern CONUS will result in continued northwest flow and below-average temperatures across Central Alabama for the next couple of days. A reinforcing cold front will pass through the area today with just enough moisture for some mid-level clouds this evening, but no rain. Temperatures will drop into the teens to mid 20s tonight with mostly sunny but chilly conditions expected during the day tomorrow. There will be a slight warming trend on Wednesday as flow aloft becomes more zonal to south-southwesterly ahead of a shortwave trough axis over the Southern Plains. A surface low will lift across the Midwest towards the Great Lakes Region which will cause our rain chances to increase again Wednesday night into Thursday as another cold front moves into the region.

The forecast is beginning to look more "interesting" by the end of the week and into the weekend as a strong region of high pressure builds southeast from Canada into the Midwest region on Friday, sending cold, low-level air into the Southeast. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough over the Four Corners extending into the Baja region will lead to amplification of the subtropical jet across Mexico and Texas, potentially resulting in the development of a surface low across the northern Gulf and strong isentropic lift along the Gulf Coast region. This looks to be a textbook winter overrunning setup that could certainly carry a lot of impacts this weekend if it were to occur. We note a fair amount of model agreement this far in advance regarding the overall synoptic pattern, but it's still early and there remains poor spatial and temporal consensus. We will have more details to share over the coming days as we monitor the forecast trends.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026

High pressure will build across the area during this TAF period supporting VFR conditions with SKC. There will be northwesterly sfc winds increasing to 8 to 10 kts this afternoon with an occasional gust up to 15 to 18 kts. Winds will diminish this evening after 00Z.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Cold and dry conditions continue across Central Alabama over the next couple of days. A cold front will pass through the area today with no rain, but will result in northwest 20ft winds at 5 to 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph. While minRH will drop into the 30-35% range this afternoon, values will be lower tomorrow, ranging from 20-30%. Winds will shift back to the southeast on Wednesday as another cold front moves towards the area with moisture and rain chances increasing by Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 45 19 45 20 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 47 21 45 24 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 46 23 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 49 23 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 50 22 48 26 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 50 27 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 52 25 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 51 25 51 28 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.