textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase through the afternoon Saturday and become most likely overnight into Sunday morning. While some strong storms will be possible with gusty winds, the risk for severe thunderstorms is low.

- Cooler for the first half of next week, with highs in the 60s to 70s.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026

A few showers were visible on the KBMX radar this morning. We had various reports of light to moderate rainfall across Tuscaloosa and Jefferson counties. If we take a look at the 12Z KBMX sounding, there is a thin layer of moisture around H5 with a fair amount of dry air in the lower levels. This elevated moisture is combining with a passing H5 shortwave to trigger these showers. This activity should taper off over the next couple of hours. We will see a brief lull through mid day before isolated convection begins to develop across our southeastern areas. Latest RAP guidance brings a few bouts of H85-H7 vorticity off the Gulf which will help drive any afternoon showers and storms that we see.

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a stout upper low pushing into the Northern Plains. This feature will lift toward the Great Lakes region through the weekend while pulling an elongated plume of H5 vorticity across the Southeast. An associated surface cold front can be analyzed across the Midwest back towards the Southern Plains at this time. This boundary will move our way over the next 24hrs, eventually reaching our northwestern counties Saturday evening. A line of showers and storms will move into our NW areas as this boundary arrives. We have a couple of factors working in our favor with these storms:

1. Instability will begin to wane as we lose daytime heating.

2. The upper and surface level low will be well to our north so we won't have much support.

Even though the storms will likely be running out of steam by the time they get here, there still remains a low chance for strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. With that said, our threat has lowered slightly since the last forecast update. Therefore, SPC has removed the Marginal Risk from the forecast. While the severe threat is diminishing, we will need to monitor for a potential flooding threat. Select forecast soundings suggest a fairly saturated profile and a deep warm cloud depth. This would promote periods of heavy rainfall. Latest QPF forecast calls for 1- 1.5" across Central AL. Recent CAM guidance hints at a few pockets over 2", mainly across our northern areas. At this time, we are not expecting widespread flooding concerns but it is worth monitoring. This activity will clear our SE counties during the morning hours Sunday with some lingering showers persisting into the afternoon hours.

In the wake of the front, cooler and drier conditions will dominate as surface high pressure prevails. We begin to warm back up by the middle of next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026

As of writing, low level stratus is lingering at AUO/MGM late this morning. Therefore have introduced a TEMPO group for the next few hours to account for these MVFR ceilings. Northern terminals will remain VFR through early Saturday morning. Southerly winds will pick up slightly this afternoon with gusts from 15-20 knots likely at times. Low level stratus moves back across the region around sunrise Saturday. Opted for a TEMPO group from 12-16Z for all terminals. Winds pick back up during the late morning hours out of the south.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated afternoon showers, with a few thunderstorms, remain forecast this afternoon. Widespread rain moves in late Saturday, lasting into Sunday morning. Min RH values will remain in the 40-50% range through the weekend. Drier air in the wake of a cold front will drop RH values into the 30-40% range early next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1147 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026

Record High Temperatures the next couple days:

April 3: KBHM: 87/1999 KEET: 87/1999 KTCL: 87/2025 KMGM: 87/2015

April 4: KBHM: 88/1934 KEET: 86/2023 KANB: 86/9999 KTCL: 88/2025 KMGM: 89/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 60 85 52 / 10 10 50 100 Anniston 83 62 84 57 / 10 10 50 90 Birmingham 85 64 85 56 / 20 0 60 100 Tuscaloosa 85 63 84 57 / 20 0 70 100 Calera 85 63 85 57 / 20 0 60 90 Auburn 82 63 82 63 / 10 20 50 60 Montgomery 85 63 86 62 / 10 10 50 70 Troy 83 62 85 63 / 20 10 50 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.