textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026

- Heat: Intense heat returns early this week. Expect temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 from Monday through mid week, with heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026

The broad upper-level pattern continues to pull the front out of the region, leaving rain chances on the more scattered side today. Here, showers and storms will mainly be driven by another weak impulse this morning, with activity generally decreasing in coverage as the day progresses. By Monday, we're still expecting the pattern to shift, with the ridge building to the east from the Plains. Now, this is where things get interesting. While we still anticipate the ridge to build in and temperatures to climb, a perturbation in the flow between the trough to our east, and ridge to our west may allow for an MCS to work in from the north Monday. Guidance first started suggesting this the other day, and since then the signal has only grown stronger. While confidence in the MCS itself continues to grow, confidence in the exact size and strength of the MCS currently remains low. As such, I have only introduced low rain chances for Monday, mainly limiting them to along and north of I-20.

Rain chances decrease again on Tuesday, which is shaping up to be our hottest day of the week. Under the ridge, afternoon highs should climb into the mid to upper-90s. Thankfully, the ridge appears to become slightly suppressed into Wednesday, as the trough begins to build back in over the East Coast, with a deep low pressure forming over New England. Afternoon highs should slowly drop into next weekend, as this trough allows for some slightly cooler temperatures to filter in from the north. While it's still going to be hot, temperatures by next Friday should generally range in the upper-80s and low-90s for most of the area. This trough could also allow for additional MCS's to move through the region beginning on Wednesday, resulting in more widespread rainfall. Confidence in these additional MCS's currently remains low, with only limited rain chances in the forecast for the rest of the upcoming workweek.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is beginning to decrease, as this complex continues to move out of the region. All terminals should return to VFR category in the next few hours. Additional showers are possible overnight, but confidence in these additional rain chances are currently low. As such, I have maintained the PROB30 groups for SHRA past 26/09z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions past 26/16z for the remainder of the TAF period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 91 72 94 / 50 30 0 20 Anniston 73 90 72 93 / 50 30 0 20 Birmingham 74 92 75 95 / 40 30 0 20 Tuscaloosa 75 93 76 97 / 30 20 0 20 Calera 74 95 74 98 / 30 30 0 20 Auburn 75 90 75 93 / 40 50 0 10 Montgomery 75 93 75 97 / 30 30 10 10 Troy 74 92 74 96 / 10 30 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.