textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026

- Very high chances (80-100%) for rain today into Saturday with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Any threat for a severe storm remains very low.

- Well above normal temperatures return next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026

It's a cloudy and cool day across Central Alabama with light rain beginning to move from west to east across the area. This rain is being forced by a lifting warm from associated with an area of low surface pressure over the ArkLaTex region. This system is being driven by a low-amplitude shortwave aloft which will track eastward through the area tonight. Low-level moisture is limited, but should gradually increase through the afternoon with rain becoming more widespread by this evening, especially over the northern half of the forecast area. Thunderstorm chances are low due to poor mid-level lapse rates.

By Saturday morning, much of the rain will be in the process of moving into Georgia. There will be a brief window early tomorrow afternoon where cold air advection aloft in combination with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s will cause lapse rates to steepen and support the redevelopment of a few strong thunderstorms south of the I-85 corridor. Veered wind profiles would support primarily a strong wind and hail risk within that brief early afternoon window, but latest CAMs indicate this low potential becoming maximized to our east over southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, so we do not anticipate severe weather in our forecast area at this time.

Near normal temperatures return on Sunday as north to northwesterly flow redevelops then the pattern quickly becomes more zonal early next week as broad ridging develops over the region, supporting warmer temperatures and dry conditions once again. Rain chances will increase again by the middle to end of next week as an ejecting southern stream trough brings another front into the region.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS are expected overnight, with SHRA expected to linger at all terminals as well. Once the rain ends, IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible past 03/06z, with slow mixing expected through the morning. While some terminals may make it back into MVFR CIGS, most terminals will only climb into IFR CIGS past 03/16z.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing rain chances today as a warm front lifts into the area. Widespread rain is expected today into Saturday morning. Min RHs should remain well above critical values through the next 7 days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 49 60 35 57 / 100 20 0 0 Anniston 51 60 37 57 / 100 30 0 0 Birmingham 51 60 39 57 / 100 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 54 63 39 58 / 90 20 0 0 Calera 53 64 39 60 / 90 30 0 0 Auburn 54 66 44 62 / 90 70 0 0 Montgomery 58 69 46 63 / 80 60 0 0 Troy 58 70 46 64 / 70 60 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.