textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026

- Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Friday evening, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area behind it for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area today. Winds are already shifting to the NW in NW portions of AL here around noon. We're not expecting much in the way of rainfall with this, though a few sprinkles can't be ruled out. The main impact is going to be gusty winds this afternoon and through much of the day tomorrow as the front moves through. This will be some of the coldest temperatures so far this year with lows Saturday dropping into the upper 40s to near 50, then dropping to the low to mid 40s on Sunday and Monday mornings. Daytime highs should rebound quite a bit, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s for overall mild Fall conditions this weekend.

This trough that's moving through develops into a cut-off low along the Atlantic Coast Sunday into Monday as ridging builds in to our west. This will generally lead to continued dry weather with northerly to northwesterly flow. We'll gradually see a warming trend through the remainder of the week with mostly clear skies and ample sunshine, though overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 40 to near 50 through Friday.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites. A strong cold front is moving through the area this afternoon and through the overnight hours, so we'll see winds shift from southerly to southwesterly to northwesterly generally before 06z. After that, gusty northwesterly winds will persist through at least 18z (likely longer and beyond this forecast period). We're not expecting much in the way of rainfall with this frontal passage, so I don't have that mentioned in any of the TAFs, but we could see at least some lower VFR to higher MVFR clouds right along the front. I've kept VFR in the forecast for now, but we'll need to monitor the CIGs along the front this evening.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening. A much drier air mass builds into the region this weekend and will persist through the upcoming week. Winds will be strong tonight and through much of tomorrow afternoon with 20ft winds in the 10-15 mph range and gusts up to 25 mph. RHs drop to the low 30% range in western portions of Central AL, with the eastern half of the area dropping just below 40%. This keeps us out of critical Red Flag Warning criteria, but conditions are notably dry and windy on Saturday, so outdoor burning is discouraged.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 47 66 41 / 10 10 0 0 Anniston 85 47 65 42 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 84 48 65 44 / 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 86 49 68 45 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 85 48 65 44 / 10 10 0 0 Auburn 84 50 67 47 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 50 69 47 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 86 48 68 46 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.