textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 105 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026

- A cold front will bring limited rain, generally less than a half-inch, Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon, providing minimal relief for the ongoing drought.

- Sunday temperatures will drop 15-20 degrees, with highs in the upper-60s to low-70s, before a gradual rebound to the low-80s by Wednesday.

- Critically dry fuels, strong winds, and low Minimum Relative Humidity behind the front will keep fire weather conditions elevated through next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 105 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026

A broken line of light to moderate rainfall is moving across northeastern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley at this hour. This activity has developed ahead of a weak cold front which is struggling to move eastward amidst stubborn low to mid-level ridging centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida. The 12Z BMX RAOB depicted a very dry airmass in place across Central Alabama as supported by current low to mid-level water vapor satellite imagery. Visible satellite imagery depicts a couple outflow boundaries from the rain to our west which are producing zones of cloud cover across the Birmingham area and even a few specks of light rain on radar. Rain along the front will really struggle to hold together as it moves further east through the afternoon. We will maintain a 20 percent chance of a few showers in our far northwest today, but mostly sunny and warm conditions are expected elsewhere. Temperatures continue to trend upwards for Friday with many locations near record territory for highs. I would not be surprised to see a 90 degree reading here and there tomorrow afternoon, especially in the south.

A stronger system and deeper trough will track across the Upper Plains on Saturday, sending a better defined cold front through the Lower MS River Valley and into our forecast area Saturday night. We will definitely have higher coverage of rain, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, compared to today, but similarly, rain along the front will encounter a significant amount of dry air with eastward extent. Highest chances for rainfall accumulations up to half an inch will exist for locations generally along and north/northwest of the I-20 corridor. Much less accumulation is expected southeast of there. These amounts will do little to stall the expanding and worsening drought conditions.

As the front moves off to our east, pleasant temperatures are expected on Sunday, but elevated post-frontal winds and plummeting dewpoints will result in fire weather concerns, and conditions will be near Red Flag criteria, so we'll continue to monitor the forecast for Sunday and potentially Monday as well. The pattern for the first half of next week will continue to be dominated by low to mid-level ridging centered over the Deep South which will promote warming temperatures and persistent dry conditions.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026

Outflow boundaries from earlier rain over Mississippi have been producing occasional MVFR ceilings across our northern terminals today. Should see ceilings rise above 3kft this afternoon with VFR conditions expected to continue for much of the remaining TAF period. Guidance indicates another round of advection fog development along the Gulf coast early tomorrow morning which will advect northward. Confidence is low that the fog layer will make it to MGM or TCL before mixing out after sunrise, so I did not mention reduced visibility in the TAFs at this time. Will monitor those forecast trends for the next TAF issuance.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026

Fire weather conditions remain elevated through the weekend due to critically dry fuels. While confidence is fairly high that we will see rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday, it will provide minimal drought relief. Strong winds are anticipated over the weekend with the passage of the cold front, slightly lessening by Monday and Tuesday. Low MinRH values are expected to follow the front and persist for most of next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 88 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 60 88 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 63 89 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 61 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 60 89 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 61 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 89 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 60 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.