textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026

- Heat: Heat indices are expected to range from 100-105 degrees through the weekend, creating a moderate to major heat risk. Please prioritize heat safety precautions.

- Storm Potential: A few stronger storms are possible today, mainly across northern areas, with the potential for strong wind gusts.

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern begins with periods of heavy rainfall expected, particularly across the southern half of Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are forecast, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026

Our pattern begins to shift today as we enter a wet period across Central Alabama. A cluster of showers and storms are currently moving south across North Alabama ahead of an approaching cold front. This activity will sag into the area during the afternoon hours. A few stronger storms are likely, especially across our northern areas, as we reach peak heating as storms arrive. Forecast soundings reveal an inverted-v profile and DCAPE from 1000- 1200J/kg which would result in some stronger wind gusts. Medium to high rain chances continue through the weekend as an upper trough lifts across the Plains while sending several shortwaves just north of the region. In addition, the aforementioned cold front will stall nearby leading to increased surface convergence. Rain will likely be heavy at times as a deep plume of moisture spreads across the region. A few thunderstorms are likely over the weekend as instability remains elevated.

We hold onto moderate to high rain chances through the middle of next week as the stalled cold front picks up some momentum and begins to advance south. This boundary will run into a swath of healthy tropical moisture in place along the Gulf coast. Periods of heavy rainfall are likely as forecast soundings reveal a deep warm cloud depth and a fully saturated profile. Guidance continues to hint at the heaviest rainfall across the southern half of the state where convergence will be maximized. Rainfall amounts look to range from 2-4" at this time. Latest LREF probabilities show a low to medium chance of rainfall amounts over 4 inches across our southern CWA.

The other story with this forecast update is our increasing heat risk. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s along with high RH will lead to heat indices from 100-105 degrees through the weekend. This will promote a moderate to major heat risk across much of the region. Heat Advisories may become necessary by the weekend, particularly for vulnerable populations without access to adequate cooling and hydration.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the majority of this TAF window. Brief MVFR ceilings are likely with any passing shower or storm through the afternoon hours. Continued with the PROB30 mention for TSRA through 02Z this evening at BHM/EET/TCL as convection should remain fairly isolated. Another round of convection looks to develop just beyond this TAF window.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Low to moderate chances for showers and storms continue this afternoon. Chances increase over the weekend as a front stalls across the northern portions of the area. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the next week. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time, so conditions remain favorable for limited fire spread.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 91 73 89 / 20 40 30 80 Anniston 74 91 74 89 / 20 40 20 70 Birmingham 74 93 74 91 / 20 40 30 60 Tuscaloosa 76 94 76 92 / 20 30 20 60 Calera 75 96 75 94 / 10 30 20 50 Auburn 76 95 75 92 / 0 30 10 40 Montgomery 75 95 76 93 / 0 20 20 30 Troy 75 95 75 93 / 10 30 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.