textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1147 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026

- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

- Cooler for the first half of next week, with highs in the 60s to 70s.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026

A weak disturbance along the Gulf Coast today will generate the potential for scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two across far eastern Central Alabama. Activity should begin this afternoon across southeastern areas and slowly shift north over the following 12-18 hours, with isolated to scattered showers forming periodically through the evening and overnight. Highs will climb back into the mid 80s today and Saturday, ahead of an approaching cold front.

An upper low over the Intermountain West will march eastward toward the Great Lakes over the next couple days. An associated surface low of Colorado origin will jet northeastward across the Plains and into northern Michigan by Saturday afternoon. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward into Texas and will slide eastward as Saturday becomes Sunday. Ahead of this cold front, a line of rain and thunderstorms will reach the Mississippi River across MS/TN by early Saturday afternoon. A severe risk area is currently outlined by the SPC to cover most of Mississippi and west/northwest Alabama for Saturday evening. As the line of thunderstorms makes its way into northwest Central Alabama by Saturday evening, this line is expected to pose a damaging wind risk before it decays as it reaches the I-65 corridor overnight. Latest CAMs show potential for CAPE values as high as 800-1000 J/kg over western Central Alabama. Instability wanes with the loss of daytime heating across central counties but may still be on the order of 500 J/kg. With the surface low well removed to the north, in Ontario by late Saturday night, the lack of support would tend to support the notion of a weakening trend during the overnight hours.

Models are showing potential for widespread 1-1.5" rainfall totals across much of Central Alabama Saturday into Sunday. Unfortunately, the lowest amounts will be across southeastern areas that are dealing with more serious drought conditions. NBM probabilities continue to hint at the possibility for over 2" across northern and northwestern counties, however. This will need to be monitored in the event any isolated flooding concerns develop.

Rain should clear out of the area by Sunday morning, with drastically lower dew points taking hold for much of the week. Sunday through Wednesday will feel much more seasonal as a surface high works eastward across much of the eastern United States. Highs will be in the 60s to 70s through midweek, starting to climb again by Thursday as higher dew points return from the southwest.

12

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026

PROB30 for SHRA will remain in through 2z at AUO and MGM. Winds will lessen overnight at all sites. MVFR cigs possible at AUO tomorrow morning, becoming VFR by midday. Winds will pick up again tomorrow afternoon, gusting 15-18 kts. PROB30 in again late tomorrow afternoon for MGM and AUO for passing shower potential across East AL.

12

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated afternoon showers, with a few thunderstorms, remain forecast through today. Widespread rain moves in by Saturday, lasting into Sunday morning. Min RH values will remain in the 40-50% range through the weekend. Drier air in the wake of a cold front will drop RH values into the 25-40% range early next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1147 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026

Record High Temperatures the next couple days:

April 3: KBHM: 87/1999 KEET: 87/1999 KTCL: 87/2025 KMGM: 87/2015

April 4: KBHM: 88/1934 KEET: 86/2023 KANB: 86/9999 KTCL: 88/2025 KMGM: 89/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 61 85 61 85 / 0 10 10 50 Anniston 61 84 62 84 / 0 10 10 50 Birmingham 64 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 50 Tuscaloosa 64 86 64 85 / 10 10 0 60 Calera 62 85 63 85 / 0 10 10 50 Auburn 62 83 64 82 / 0 20 20 50 Montgomery 61 85 63 86 / 10 10 10 50 Troy 60 83 63 84 / 10 20 10 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.