textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026

- Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the new workweek.

- Rain chances should increase by Wednesday afternoon, and remain in the forecast into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026

Various stages of upper-level ridging will control the forecast to start the new workweek, with highs climbing back into the mid-80s by Tuesday. By Wednesday however, this ridge will begin to shift off to the SE, as a shortwave begins to move through the Central Plains. This shortwave should slowly increase rain chances during the day on Wednesday, as the better forcing gets closer to the region. However, this shortwave and cold front look to stall somewhere to our NW, as the upper-level ridge builds back in over the east coast.

This is where long-range guidance starts to split, as a series of shortwaves looks possible through next weekend. Some solutions bring the strongest of this shortwave farther south, which would result in more organized rain for our region. Other solutions keep them north, resulting in less rain. Thankfully, it looks like most of the area should see some rainfall into next weekend, with exact amounts remaining to be seen.

/44/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026

A wedge of high pressure building in from the east will keep ESE winds elevated around 7-12kts overnight and Sunday morning, gusting to around 20 kts at times Sunday morning. An expansive cloud deck associated with isentropic lift over this wedge is currently located southeast of the area, with bases mainly in the 3500-5500ft range. This will advect into the area Sunday morning. Cigs will be predominantly VFR, but there are some low probabilities for MVFR cigs at MGM/EET/BHM mid to late morning, with medium probabilities at AUO where a TEMPO is mentioned in the mid to late morning.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will rebound on Sunday, ranging in the 35-50% range north to south. However, fuels remain critically dry, with surface winds staying near 10 MPH today. So while we are not meeting Red Flag criteria, fire weather concerns will remain elevated. Thankfully, rain chances will slowly increase by the middle of the new workweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 51 78 55 / 0 10 10 0 Anniston 67 53 78 58 / 0 10 10 0 Birmingham 68 55 79 60 / 0 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 71 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 69 54 81 59 / 0 10 10 0 Auburn 65 55 78 60 / 0 10 10 0 Montgomery 68 56 81 58 / 0 10 10 0 Troy 68 55 80 58 / 0 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.