textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

- Strong to Severe Storms: There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms across northern central Alabama this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary concern.

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern begins with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches are forecast over the entirety of next week, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

Our wet period begins to take shape today as a shortwave currently across the Plains helps drive another cold front our way. The surface boundary will push into the area this evening, eventually stalling across the central half of the state through mid week. Ahead of this front, a line of showers and storms guided by a H85-H7 shortwave, will move across our northern tier of counties through the afternoon and evening hours. Main threats with this activity will be gusty winds and heavy rain, especially with any stronger storms that develop. There is currently a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms across our northern counties to account for this.

Medium to high chances for showers and storms shift across the southern half of the state through the week as a few passing H5 shortwaves interact with the lingering boundary. Deep tropical moisture in place will lead to periods of heavy rainfall at times. This boundary fizzles out by mid week providing a very brief lull in activity. By the end of the work week, another front moves into the region. We will need to keep a very close eye on this setup as a tropical wave moves out of the northwest Gulf and into the southeast, eventually colliding with this boundary. This has the potential to be a significant rainfall producer across Central Alabama. The latest QPF has increased slightly from last night's update, about 2-4 inches across our northern areas and 4-7 for southern counties. We will be monitoring the trends over the next few days.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Westerly winds have increased through the morning hours and will remain elevated through this evening with gusts around 20 knots likely. Isolated to scattered convection is expected this afternoon. Due to the more isolated nature, opted to continue with the PROB30 mentions. MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely to develop early Monday morning ahead of an approaching front. BHM/EET/TCL return to VFR through the morning with MGM/AUO keeping MVFR ceilings through the remainder of this TAF cycle. There is a low chance that the northern terminals keep MVFR through the morning hours but have leaned towards the latest HREF probabilities with this update. Showers and storms return through the morning tomorrow with the greatest chances at MGM and AUO.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances increase through the day and continue into early next week as a front slowly moves across the region. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 81 63 82 / 50 20 40 20 Anniston 70 81 65 80 / 60 30 40 50 Birmingham 70 81 66 82 / 50 30 50 40 Tuscaloosa 72 82 68 82 / 30 60 60 50 Calera 71 83 67 82 / 40 60 60 60 Auburn 73 85 69 78 / 40 60 70 90 Montgomery 73 84 69 79 / 30 80 90 90 Troy 74 86 69 78 / 20 90 80 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.