textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 548 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026

- Fog formation is anticipated overnight tonight through Saturday morning and become dense at times, especially across far eastern and southeastern counties of Central Alabama. - A dry and above normal temperature pattern is expected to return and continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals an upper level shortwave that is currently driving the lingering batch of showers across our southeastern counties. An associated cold front can be analyzed draped across the state. This feature will slowly drift south through the day. Drier and warmer conditions are in store for the weekend as upper level ridging attempts to build in. As drier air filters in overnight, would't be surprised to see patchy to potentially dense fog develop, especially in areas that saw plentiful rainfall last night/early this morning. Latest RAP guidance hints at this as well condensation pressure deficits from 1-5mb and narrowing dewpoint depressions.

Rain chances begin to return by the middle of next week as a stout upper level trough ejects out of the Plains. We were previously advertising rain chances early in the work week. However, latest deterministic and ensemble guidance hint at that front remaining north of the CWA.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated for the next six hours, followed by a high likelihood for fog development overnight tonight that has a high chance of affecting the southern terminals of MGM and AUO. Fog development at EET and BHM is certainly not out of the question either, but confidence is a bit lower for those sites. For now, have gone with dense IFR to LIFR conditions at MGM and AUO due to the high confidence in formation and very good agreement between forecast guidance. Fog and low clouds are forecast to mix out between 13z and 15z areawide. Winds will remain calm or variable overnight then light from the northeast on Saturday.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air gradually filters into the region today with RH values falling to 30-40% through early next week. Light winds will help negate fire weather concerns. Moisture begins to recover by Tuesday with min RH values back into the 40-50% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 42 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 45 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 45 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 44 76 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 45 74 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 53 71 49 76 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 50 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 53 74 48 77 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.