textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with limited rain chances, causing worsening drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

High pressure will be the prevailing feature through much of the extended. Flow will be mostly southeasterly through today, with moisture starting to advect into the state. RH values won't see the benefit of this moisture today, with mid to upper 20s across the southwestern half of the area, and values at or below 25% in the northeastern half of the area. A low pressure and weak front will pass by to the northwest, across the TN River Valley. A mid level jet with that system will influence winds across the north and northwestern areas, with gusting winds up to 20 to 25 mph possible at times through the afternoon and evening. With the low RH values, breezy winds, and prolonged dry conditions, will leave the Red Flag Warning in effect through today.

Sunday night and Monday, that same system moving to the north will bring mid level moisture with soundings hinting at enough moisture for a solid cloud deck to form. This would help moderate temperatures a bit through the afternoon Monday. Low level flow will transition to a more southerly direction Monday as well, further increasing moisture advection. RH values are expected to be comfortably in the 30s Monday afternoon. With that mid level jet moving to areas around New England and winds decreasing, will keep advertising an increased fire weather risk, but criteria should be below Red Flag Warning criteria.

Tuesday through Thursday, the high pressure will remain, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Dry conditions will continue with RH values in the low to mid 30s. Winds will continue to be brisk, with fire weather remaining a concern through this time.

A weak low will begin to develop Thursday, pushing the high slightly eastward. A boundary is expected to swing through the TN River Valley and to the northeast, with models consistent of that boundary bringing rain chances to the northwestern counties briefly Thursday afternoon and evening. PW values increase to around 1.2 to 1.3 inches, which is between the 90th percentile and max for this time of year. Light scattered rain showers would be predominant feature, with drier air quickly filling in by Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday, a pattern shift should take place with the high moving further into the Atlantic, and a low pressure system over the Great Plains moving towards the northeast. This would bring higher rain chances to the area for Sunday...though with the models latest uncertainty, will say confidence is low on timing.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be light through 14 to 15z then increase to 10 to 12 kts through the end of the period.

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FIRE WEATHER

RH values drop into the 22-30% range this afternoon, with the lowest values in eastern portions of the state. Meanwhile 20ft wind gusts will be up to 20 mph, highest in far northern and northwestern portions of Central Alabama. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of the area which will see the greatest overlap between lower RH values and stronger winds, due to dry fuels and a high risk in the Significant Fire Potential outlook. Any fires could spread quickly due to the the dry conditions and steady afternoon winds that are forecast. RH values will generally be in the 25-35 percent range this coming week, with 20ft wind gusts around 10-15 mph and no widespread rainfall.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1102 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 12: KBHM: 87/1906 KEET: 85/2001 KANB: 87/1977 KTCL: 88/1992 KMGM: 88/1992

April 13: KEET: 87/2017 KTCL: 87/1972 KMGM: 88/1972

April 14: KEET: 85/2017 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972

April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KTCL: 88/1972

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 55 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 57 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 57 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 57 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 55 85 53 86 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson- Marion-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker.