textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 PM CST WED NOV 4 2026

- Severe Weather: A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for eastern portions of the state this afternoon through 10 PM. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado are the main severe weather threats.

- Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week, with even colder morning temperatures through the weekend. Behind a front mid to upper 30s for the weekend into the first half of next week.

- Frost and Freeze Potential: There is a medium probability of needing a Frost Advisory for portions of the area as early as Saturday night/Sunday morning. There is also a low probability of near freezing temperatures in the far northern areas.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CST WED NOV 4 2026

This afternoon, a surface low will move out of Iowa and Wisconsin toward Upper Michigan by Thursday, dragging a cold front across much of the Gulf Coast States, including Central Alabama. Shower activity will become widespread ahead of this front, along with a few thunderstorms supported by frontal forcing. Latest guidance continues to redevelop activity right along the cold front this afternoon into tonight, which presents the severe potential across the forecast area. Looking at current conditions, we are seeing slightly more vertical cloud development along the line in West Alabama, though no lightning has been observed yet. Dew points in the low 70s and partial clearing are yielding decent CAPE values, albeit with a skinny CAPE profile, and sounding data indicates a persistent warm layer aloft. While modest deep-layer shear is present, low-level shear/SRH remains weak. Based off a special 18z sounding

By Thursday, the system will continue to progress through the SE portions of the CWA with all precipitation expected to exit Central Alabama by late Thursday evening. Behind the front on Friday, a much colder Canadian ridge will build to lower the temperatures back into the 40s (and maybe some mid to upper 30s) for lows across Central Alabama for this weekend into the first part of next week. Guidance is trending colder behind this front with each successive run. There is a medium chance that we could see our first frost as early as Saturday night/Sunday morning now. This would be the first of multiple days where portions of the area may see frost and even freezing temperatures in the normally cooler locations. .

16 and 32/JDavis

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CST WED NOV 4 2026

IFR/MVFR ceilings will remain draped across the region over the next 24 hours as a cold front and associated line of showers move into the area. Low-level moisture convergence along the boundary and post-frontal cold air advection will support expanding IFR/LIFR ceilings across Central Alabama. All terminals will continue to carry SHRA through 05/00Z before the surface front clears to the east. Medium confidence in thunder remains for this afternoon, with TSRA introduced at BHM and EET. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR ceilings will lower further after 05/08Z under persistent low-level moisture trapping beneath the post-frontal inversion, remaining in place through the end of the TAF period. There may be a brief period right after 05/15Z for some improvement, but it will not be mentioned in this set to avoid adding length to the TAFs.

16

FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the next couple of days. Rain continues through tonight. Winds will shift southeast to southwest today ahead of a front and shift further as it moves through the area. Drier and cooler conditions return Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 75 46 75 / 30 0 0 0 Anniston 60 76 50 74 / 50 0 0 0 Birmingham 56 74 50 73 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 53 76 48 76 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 58 75 52 73 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 65 77 58 75 / 60 20 10 0 Montgomery 64 78 55 76 / 60 10 0 0 Troy 64 79 57 76 / 40 20 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.