textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025

- Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast through Monday morning with minimum wind chill values from 6 degrees north to 15 degrees south. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7 am Monday morning. - Expect dry conditions to persist through Wednesday followed by shower chances increasing on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday) Issued at 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025

An amplified pattern persists over much of the country with broad ridging over the Four Corners states while deep troughing was present over much of the Eastern Seaboard. A strong northwest flow aloft was present over the forecast area with strong 1040 mb surface high pressure analyzed across the Southern Ohio River Valley Region. Under mostly clear skies and with gradually relaxing northerly winds, very cold temperatures will persist through mid-morning with dangerous wind chills in the single digits north and in the mid teens south.

Today.

Residual troughing will persist over much of the Northeast portion of the country today while broad ridging continues to build over the Intermountain West. This flow pattern will continue to support a northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. Surface high pressure will move southeast and become more elongated in form as it will extend from South Texas northeast into the Carolinas by this afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will continue to ease through the morning hours with winds becoming more easterly by late morning and then take on a more southerly component this afternoon from 5-10 mph. Dry conditions will persist under mostly sunny skies with highs from around 40 far north to the mid 40s south.

Tonight through Wednesday night.

The northwest flow pattern aloft will transition to more of a zonal flow pattern during the day Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. A mid-level trough will develop and deepen over the Northern and Central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday and approach the area from the west while shortwave ridging migrates to the east of the forecast area. Surface high pressure will initially continue to encompass much of the Deep South Region, then gradually consolidate across the Carolinas late Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect some high clouds streaming over the area Tuesday followed by more clouds arriving later in the day Wednesday but dry conditions look to persist areawide through late Wednesday. Lows will range from the upper teens northeast to the low 20s elsewhere tonight followed by highs on Tuesday from near 50 far north to the mid 50s south. Lows Wednesday will range from the upper 20s far northeast to the lower 30s west. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid 50s far north to readings in the low 60s south and central. Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid 30s northeast to the mid 40s west.

Thursday through Friday.

A mid-level trough will move east over the region overnight Wednesday into Thursday, resulting in increasing chances for showers Thursday morning with scattered to numerous showers northwest with few to isolated chances southeast. This activity will continue to advance eastward with scattered to numerous shower activity across much of the area Thursday evening before clearing the area overnight Thursday night as another trough quickly dives southeast from over the Northern Plains and deepens over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley Regions Friday night. There will be enough instability to support some thunderstorm activity during this time frame with better potential across the southern half of the forecast area. Highs Thursday will range from around 60 far northwest to near 70 far south. Cooler air will move in from the northwest behind the back edge of the showers early Friday morning, resulting in lows around freezing far northwest to readings in the mid 40s southeast. Highs Friday will range from the upper 40s northwest to near 60 far southeast.

Saturday through Monday.

A zonal flow pattern will return over the weekend with dry conditions expected Saturday. Available global modeling depicts a trough skirting the region to the north, primarily affecting the Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday through Monday but its influence may be enough to support isolated shower activity across the northern portions of the area Sunday and Monday, though confidence remains low at this time. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 20s northeast to the mid 30s south, followed by highs from the upper 50s north and east to the mid 60s far south and southwest. Lows Sunday morning will range from the lower 40s east to around 50 west with highs from the low 60s far north to the low 70s far south. Lows Monday morning will range from the mid 40s far northeast to the lower 50s south and southwest, followed by highs from the mid 60s north to around 70 far south.

05

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Low-level winds will continue to relax overnight as winds become more easterly with time with speeds decreasing into the 5-10 kt range before daybreak Monday morning. Expect low-level winds will become more southerly later today with speeds from 3-6 kts under fair skies.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will persist across the area through midweek. Expect 20 foot winds to decrease below 10 mph with surface winds becoming easterly through the morning with speeds decreasing into the 6-12 mph range then become more southerly later today with speeds from 5-10 mph. Minimum RH values will dip into the lower 20 percent range this afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Southerly winds from 4-8 mph are forecast Tuesday with minimum RH values from the mid to upper 20s east to the mid 30s west with highs from the upper 40s far north to the mid 50s south. Dry conditions will persist through Wednesday before rain chances increase through the day on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 14 43 17 52 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 15 45 21 55 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 17 43 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 17 44 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 16 47 21 55 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 21 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 21 45 20 53 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 21 46 21 54 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM CST Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.