textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 737 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place this week with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches are forecast this week, with localized higher amounts possible.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

A somewhat complicated forecast is in store for Central Alabama over the next few days. Currently, we are watching a weak shortwave sliding in from the west. With strong southerly flow pumping in plenty of moisture, rainfall has been abundant throughout much of the southern two-thirds of the area. At this point, lightning has been contained to the coast, but we cannot rule out a strike or two this afternoon across the far southern sections. As we work through the night, we should see some clearing of the rain to the south, with generally a break on Wednesday as much of the energy in the south focuses toward the potential tropical cyclone along the Texas coastline. Latest guidance takes the system through Louisiana before dissipating into a depression in western Mississippi.

After a drier day on Wednesday, we will see the edge of the tropical system work into the western areas on Thursday morning. It appears the system will be weakening before moving into our area, but it will still need to be monitored. The primary concerns are potential extreme rainfall amounts and the final position of the remnant low. Being on the northeast side of the low, banding is certainly plausible. With that banding, we will need to monitor for brief spin-ups throughout the day in addition to the potential for flooding.

A front will swing through on Friday, but we will remain in a persistently wet pattern through the weekend and into the first of next week. Hopefully, everyone got their yards cut over the past few days. If not, there may be a small window on Saturday as most rain chances will be more summertime-type convection.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026

MVFR to LIFR cigs are noted across Central Alabama at this time with a moist tropical airmass in place. Periodic waves of light to moderate rain are expected. TS chances are too low to mention in terminals at this time. Some reduced VSBYs will be noted at times with the rain. Winds will be south to southwest through the forecast. Cigs are expected to deteriorate to LIFR for most overnight improving back to MVFR by midday Wednesday.

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FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as a front stalls across the region. We will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 67 87 73 83 / 30 30 40 90 Anniston 68 86 73 82 / 50 50 30 90 Birmingham 68 87 73 83 / 40 50 40 90 Tuscaloosa 69 87 74 83 / 30 60 50 90 Calera 68 87 73 81 / 50 70 40 90 Auburn 70 83 73 81 / 80 80 20 100 Montgomery 70 84 73 82 / 60 70 20 100 Troy 69 83 73 82 / 70 80 20 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.