textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

- Threats & Impacts: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will pose a primary threat of strong, damaging wind gusts.

- Trends: Diurnally driven convection will continue daily through Wednesday, followed by a cold front mid-week that will bring relief from mid-90s highs.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

We had a fairly active afternoon unfold across the region as several diurnally driven storms overperformed at times. Several storms produced damaging wind gusts that led to downed trees and powerlines across Central Alabama. Activity has waned over the last few hours as we have lost daytime heating. Low level moisture left in the wake of these storms will likely lead to patchy fog developing around sunrise Sunday morning. Water vapor imagery reveals our well advertised upper level closed low emerging over the eastern Gulf as it moves off the coast of Florida. A plume of moisture associated with this feature will drive our weather as we wrap up the weekend. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon. Strong wind gusts will be the primary threat with this activity. The upper level low will begin to break down early next week, leaving healthy moisture in place across the state. This will allow for low to medium chances for diurnally driven convection daily through Wednesday. By the middle of the week, an upper trough will swing across the Plains while sending a cold front our way. This will provide a decent "cool" down for us with high settling into the mid 80s. The more noticeable change will come during the morning hours as we will see temps in the low to mid 60s by Friday morning. This was the first time in quite some time that I remember looking at the ECMWF EFI and not seeing a signal for anomalously warm temps! With that said, we will have to get through a few more days of highs in the mid 90s before our "relief" arrives.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Given calm winds and recent rainfall, reduced VIS is expected by 20/09z, with all terminals falling to MVFR category or lower. These conditions will mix out by 20/16z, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. All terminals are carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA through 21/01z. Beyond that, VFR conditions are generally expected for the rest of this TAF period.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 40%. Low to medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the middle of next week. Winds will remain light through the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 95 71 95 69 / 20 20 30 50 Anniston 93 70 93 69 / 20 20 30 50 Birmingham 95 73 95 71 / 20 20 40 50 Tuscaloosa 98 73 97 71 / 20 20 30 40 Calera 95 71 95 70 / 20 20 40 40 Auburn 91 71 92 70 / 20 10 20 20 Montgomery 94 72 94 71 / 20 10 20 20 Troy 93 71 94 70 / 20 10 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.