textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 136 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the low to mid-90s for much of the next week, keeping Heat Index values above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 136 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026

Upper-level ridging will slowly degrade over the next 24- 48 hours, as a trough and cold front begin to move through the Midwest. This cold front is still expected to stall somewhere along north Tennessee, where it will remain through the weekend. Because of this stalled cold front, and a series of weak disturbances along the broken trough, rain chances will begin to increase by Thursday afternoon, steadily increasing over the weekend. While weekend rain coverage may not be completely widespread, it should be enough for many locations across the region to see at least some measurable rainfall through Sunday.

Unfortunately, upper-level ridging will quickly begin to strengthen over the SE by Monday, dropping rainfall chances back down to 25% or less. This activity will more resemble the typical scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms we're used to seeing under the influence of a ridge. Afternoon highs will quickly climb under this pattern as well, with highs returning to the low and mid-90s for much of the region.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026

While upper-level ridging will generally continue to suppress afternoon convection, low shower and thunderstorm probabilities (<15%) will remain in the forecast for this afternoon. Confidence in storm coverage remains low, omitting any of this activity from FM groups. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for this entire TAF period.

AMD NOT SKED at TCL due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-20%) through midweek, they will increase slightly thereafter. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by next week if no meaningful rainfall is seen over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 95 71 94 / 0 20 0 50 Anniston 70 93 71 92 / 0 20 10 60 Birmingham 72 95 73 92 / 0 20 20 60 Tuscaloosa 73 97 73 94 / 0 20 10 70 Calera 72 95 73 92 / 0 20 20 70 Auburn 72 91 73 90 / 0 20 10 70 Montgomery 74 94 73 93 / 0 30 10 70 Troy 72 93 71 92 / 0 40 10 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.