textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 703 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026

- Well above average temperatures are expected as we head into this weekend and onward.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026

Very quiet weather is expected for most of the next seven days, as a surface ridge builds in the Gulf, and an upper-level ridge builds over the west coast. Under the influence of both these ridges, temperatures across the region will begin to skyrocket. By the weekend, afternoon highs will range in the mid to upper-80s, with a few locations in our east potentially pushing 90 degrees come Sunday. By Monday however, these ridges will begin to retrograde, as a trough begins to drop south through the Midwest.

This time yesterday, morning guidance didn't have the cold front associated with this trough dropping all that far south. Today however, guidance is bring the cold front much farther south, introducing a larger temperature swing to the forecast. In general, this frontal passage still looks dry, as there is barely any moisture in the air column from NW flow aloft. The trend to watch the next few days will be how far south this next front makes it, as that will dictate how far our temperatures swing. From here, temperatures will begin to climb once more, as the ridge reestablishes itself out west, with very little to speak of regarding rain chances through the remainder of the forecast.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026

VFR TAFs are expected for the 24 hour forecast with surface ridging in place. Winds overnight will be light/variable to near calm. During the day, look for SW winds 4-9kts with mixing.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values today will likely range from the low-40% north, to the mid to low-20% range south. This will be the trend for most of the next week, as MinRH values remain variable under a strong high-pressure to our west, and a surface ridge to our south. Little to no rain is expected the next seven days, and drought conditions will likely expand given the upcoming warm stretch.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 40 77 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 44 77 54 82 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 47 78 56 83 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 47 80 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 45 79 54 84 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 46 76 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 44 78 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 43 78 52 83 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.