textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 124 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026

- Heavy Rain: A stalled cold front combined with Gulf moisture will bring potential for heavy rainfall through the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning.

- Heat: Intense heat returns early next week. Expect temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 from Monday through mid-week, with heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026

The stalled cold front is still anticipated to ebb and flow across the region through the weekend, keeping rain chances in the forecast through Sunday. Given plenty of Gulf moisture still working into the region, heavy rainfall is likely over the next 48-hours as storms slowly move along the stalled front. Given the increased risk for Flash Flooding, the Flood Watch remains in effect until Saturday for a handful of our northeast counties, where the highest rainfall amounts are expected.

A significant pattern shift is still expected to take place by the start of next week, as a stout upper-level ridge over the Plains begins to shift southeast. Afternoon high temperatures will quickly climb into the mid and upper-90s by Monday, lingering through the middle of next week. Some guidance even has a large swath of triple-digit afternoon highs on Tuesday. Given recent rainfall, these temperatures are likely a bit overdone, but confidence is already high that heat index values will surpass 105 degrees. Because of this, heat headlines already appear likely come the start of the new workweek.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased across the area, though clearing is noted at TCL and EET. Periodic showers and occasional storms are expected at BHM this afternoon and evening, with lower coverage at EET and TCL. TAFs have been adjusted to include a TEMPO for TSRA at BHM, with VCSH for EET and TCL. Showers and storms are anticipated at AUO between 18Z and 19Z, followed by isolated activity through 02Z. Activity is expected to increase over MGM by 20Z, continuing through 01Z-02Z. Given the stalled cold front, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday morning through the afternoon for most terminals, with PROB30 added after 15Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 87 72 90 / 40 70 60 50 Anniston 72 86 72 88 / 40 70 60 60 Birmingham 73 88 74 90 / 30 70 50 50 Tuscaloosa 74 91 74 92 / 20 50 40 30 Calera 73 92 73 93 / 20 60 50 50 Auburn 74 88 74 89 / 30 60 40 60 Montgomery 74 92 75 93 / 20 50 30 40 Troy 73 91 73 92 / 20 50 30 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson-St. Clair- Walker-Winston.