textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts to impact parts of central Alabama this afternoon and evening.

- Less humid conditions are forecast Wednesday through Friday, including a break from recent rainy weather.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

Severe threat today:

Showers and thunderstorms are in progress across eastern Kansas as of the midnight hour, with additional activity forecast to form through the night farther east along a frontal zone extending across central Missouri to southern Illinois. This activity is modeled to congeal into an MCS (complex of thunderstorms) and take a path in our direction later today. The structure/health of the MCS as it approaches and arrives to our area will be key in terms of the extent of the severe weather risk for central Alabama. This is a common challenge with MCSs and is something we should be able to better determine later this morning.

What is known is (1) the most likely window for severe thunderstorms to affect parts of central Alabama is during the afternoon. That captures both the faster and slower solutions within the HREF; and (2) a strongly unstable air mass will exist over Alabama with steepening low-level lapse rates and modest shear. This environment is conducive for thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail with any intense cores.

To be determined is what flavor of MCS we are dealt. Should an organized or reintensifying MCS arrive, then the damaging wind threat will be more substantial. Conversely, should too much outflow cause a loosely organized MCS, then the damaging wind threat will be tempered (but not eliminated). Given the storm environment, we favor leaning in the direction of impactful weather, involving damaging wind gusts, for parts of the area.

Rest of the week:

Tuesday has been labeled a transition day between the rainy weather we've been having and rain-free weather later in the week; however, models have trended a bit wetter with the low- level confluence pattern across the Gulf Coast, which may offer scattered coverage vs. the previously idea of isolated for central Alabama.

High pressure will bring rain-free and less humid weather from Wednesday to Friday. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the weekend as moisture content rebounds but we remain under the influence of high pressure.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

Fairly widespread IFR/MVFR conditions right now due to the low clouds in place. VFR conditions will return by late morning. A southward-moving complex of thunderstorms is forecast to impact central Alabama terminals early this afternoon with strong wind gusts. Current timing estimates are included as TEMPOs in the TAFs and will be adjusted as the event nears. A second wave may develop late evening and slide through the far west, so included Prob30 for TCL, BHM and EET.

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FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the week ahead. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and Tuesday. Rain- free and less-humid weather is likely Wednesday through Friday. Moisture values climb again this weekend with at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms returning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 86 66 82 56 / 50 30 40 0 Anniston 86 67 82 58 / 40 30 50 0 Birmingham 88 68 83 61 / 60 30 40 0 Tuscaloosa 91 71 85 64 / 60 30 50 10 Calera 91 68 86 60 / 60 30 50 10 Auburn 88 70 84 61 / 30 20 60 20 Montgomery 90 70 86 62 / 50 20 60 20 Troy 90 70 88 61 / 40 30 60 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.