textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 826 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026

- Thunderstorms: Unsettled pattern continues through the weekend with isolated to scattered showers and storms, some strong at times with gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- Heat: Temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 90s through Wednesday, with the warmest temperatures expected Tuesday. Heat indices may reach or exceed 105F in some areas on Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 826 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026

Central Alabama remains in an unsettled pattern through the weekend as the stalled cold front lifts north. We are currently monitoring a weak impulse moving through, accompanied by a boundary shifting into our northern counties. Precipitation coverage will be highest in the southeast this morning, with additional boundary-driven activity expected later today as the northern feature moves south. As we work into the afternoon, the boundary in our north will be across the south, while an additional boundary may begin to slide into the north from activity currently in Kentucky. These boundaries will trigger more showers and storms. Activity in the north will be limited as the bulk of the instability will be in the central and southern sections of the area. Overall coverage will be isolated to scattered, so generally only have 20-40% rain chances in the afternoon to account for this, with the highest in the central and south. Showers and storms may linger through 9 or 10 PM in the far south, before dissipating for the night. Cloud cover and rain should keep the temperatures down in the southeast through the early afternoon as well. In the north and west, we will see temperatures in the low to mid 90s, so afternoon heat index values will climb above 100 and approach the 105 Heat Advisory criteria. While heat index values in the north and west will approach the 105F threshold, current dewpoints are trending lower than in previous days. Consequently, confidence is too low for a Heat Advisory, though isolated areas may briefly touch 105F this afternoon.

While the ridge building will lead to rising temperatures beginning Monday, a mid-level shortwave could introduce a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) from the north; while guidance signal strength for this event has increased, confidence in its size and intensity remains low. Consequently, only low rain chances remain on Monday. Subject to model consistency, increased precipitation chances are possible Monday, mainly north of I-20.

Tuesday is shaping up to be the hottest day of the week, with highs reaching the mid to upper-90s under the influence of the ridge. By mid-week, the ridge appears to become slightly suppressed as a trough builds over the East Coast and a deep low forms over New England. This pattern change will allow for slightly cooler temperatures to filter in from the north, with highs trending toward the upper-80s and low-90s by next Friday. Confidence in the timing and intensity of potential MCS systems remains limited, resulting in lower probabilities of precipitation for the latter half of the workweek.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026

Showers associated with an upper northwest flow shortwave will allow for activity now through midday. I have showers mentioned with a few MVFR reduced VSBYs at times. TS probability is low and will leave out of terminals for now. Otherwise, winds will be W- WNW 5-10kts with mixing and light/variable overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 72 94 74 / 20 20 20 0 Anniston 90 72 93 74 / 30 10 20 0 Birmingham 92 75 95 76 / 30 10 20 0 Tuscaloosa 95 76 97 76 / 40 10 20 0 Calera 92 74 98 76 / 40 10 20 0 Auburn 90 75 93 76 / 60 10 20 0 Montgomery 92 75 97 77 / 40 20 20 0 Troy 92 74 96 75 / 30 20 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.