textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026

- Well above average (60-90%) rain chances are forecast each day through the coming week.

- Gusty winds and frequent lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm, along with torrential rainfall.

- Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding may develop, with the relatively highest chances on Memorial Day (Level 2 out of 4 risk)

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Synopsis:

Southerly to southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the period. This will occur as a trough with embedded upper low over the south-central CONUS becomes trapped underneath a building upper ridge over the north-central CONUS and the central Canadian provinces, while a strong subtropical ridge remains over the western Atlantic. Continued disturbances in this flow aloft combined with PWATs in the 1.8-2" range, around 140-160% of normal, will result in well above average (60-90%) rain chances through much of the period and associated drought relief, but low confidence on rainfall timing each day. The wet pattern will also keep any heat at bay.

Today and Tonight:

The MCV over northern Mississippi that caused widespread convection across Central Alabama earlier in the afternoon and evening hours has become ill-defined, while another MCS and associated MCV is located along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Enhancement to the flow and moisture fields aloft with this MCV will cause some showers to develop over Central Alabama overnight, before showers and storms increase in coverage across West Alabama during the morning hours, spreading and developing eastward through the afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear values will be around 20-25kts, supportive of some loosely organized multicells with gusty winds like we saw on Saturday. Highest instability values will be across the southeast half of the area where there will be a bit more time to heat up before storms arise, and this is also where the steepest low-level lapse rates will be. Mid- level lapse rates will be poor with fairly saturated profiles limiting DCAPE, limiting the microburst/downburst potential. Expect frequent lightning and gusty winds to be the main threats for any outdoor activities, along with torrential downpours due to high PWATs. Fairly unidirectional flow aloft will help to keep storms moving but may also allow for some training. HREF indicates some localized 2-3" amounts that would be conducive for minor flooding and perhaps isolated flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.

Monday and Monday night:

More of the same is expected Monday/Monday night with shortwaves continuing to rotate around the ArkLaTex upper low. Will have to start keeping an eye on how much rainfall occurs Sunday as we could start to see some isolated to widely scattered flash flooding concerns. WPC has a level 2 out of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for Monday. Streamflows are starting to run closer to normal across the northwest half of Central Alabama with a few locations starting to run above normal, while streamflows continue to run below normal to well below normal in the southeast half of this area where the drought has been the worst. Right now some of the heavier HREF rainfall signals are more in this drier area, but we will continue to monitor this.

Tuesday through Saturday:

Overall more of the same during this period with a continued wet pattern and at least some localized flooding concerns. The pattern does look to break down towards the end of the period as the south-central CONUS trough weakens in response to troughing over the western and northeastern CONUS.

32/JDavis

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026

Most of the area should be dry through the early morning, with fairly stable conditions in place. A few showers may move into the area by sunrise, though confidence is low in timing and coverage over any TAF site, so left mention out of each TAF for now. Low level moisture will be high overnight, with a chance for frequent variations between VFR, MVFR, and IFR ceilings. Have shown a trend in each TAF now, though that may need to be adjusted. Convection, mostly diurnal, will continue through Sunday. Due to the scattered nature of this activity, have gone with only a PROB30 for thunder.

24

FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce daily showers and thunderstorms this weekend and through next week. These instances of precipitation and lack of low RH should keep fire weather conditions at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 64 81 64 / 80 50 90 90 Anniston 81 66 81 66 / 80 50 90 80 Birmingham 81 66 81 67 / 80 50 90 80 Tuscaloosa 82 68 81 68 / 80 60 90 60 Calera 82 66 82 67 / 80 50 90 70 Auburn 83 68 81 68 / 80 50 100 80 Montgomery 85 68 81 68 / 80 50 90 70 Troy 85 68 82 68 / 80 50 90 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.