textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026

- Thunderstorms: Organized thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through Wednesday. A few of these storms may produce localized gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026

Shower and thunderstorms remain spinning across the region, as the closed low continues to slowly slide to the west. This movement should speed up into Wednesday, as upper-level ridging is expected to build in over the East Coast. As such, organized rain chances will remain in the forecast through Wednesday, before transition to more typical diurnal summertime convection by Thursday.

Heading into the weekend, guidance still remains split regarding the evolution of the building ridge. With that being said, there is starting to be a consistent signal that the ridge may be slightly suppressed by a deepening trough over the East Coast. While temperatures heading into the weekend will still be on the rise, this scenario would keep afternoon highs in the upper-80s and low-90s. This compared to the mid-90s if the ridge were able to establish itself instead. This trough would also allow for slightly more organized rain chances on Saturday and Sunday, compared to scattered, diurnally driven summertime convection. Regardless, look for these hot and humid conditions to remain in the forecast in some capacity for the next seven days.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026

Low clouds associated with an area of low pressure over Central Alabama are currently affecting EET, TCL, and BHM, resulting in IFR ceilings. MVFR to IFR vis is being observed at BHM and EET as well. Conditions should improve to VFR vis and MVFR cigs by mid morning. Scattered to widespread shower/storm activity is expected during the afternoon and early evening. Maintained TEMPO from previous issuance for TSRA at all sites after 20z. Guidance suggests IFR ceilings once again at nearly all sites after 7z tomorrow morning.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Moist conditions will persist through mid-week, keeping MinRH values well above critical thresholds. Widespread rainfall is anticipated as a weak system remains over the region, precluding any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 69 87 70 / 80 40 70 20 Anniston 83 70 86 70 / 80 40 70 20 Birmingham 83 70 86 71 / 80 40 60 20 Tuscaloosa 83 70 87 71 / 90 50 60 10 Calera 84 70 88 70 / 90 50 50 10 Auburn 83 71 86 72 / 70 50 40 10 Montgomery 85 70 88 71 / 80 50 40 10 Troy 85 68 88 70 / 70 30 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.