textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 601 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026

- Fire Weather: There is a medium fire weather risk through Friday due to dry fuels and limited moisture.

- Halloween Evening: Rain chances will increase into the weekend. Whether the rainiest weather holds off until after trick-or- treat hours is unclear at this time, but you should at least plan for rainy conditions.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 119 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026

Fair weather continues through Friday as we remain under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures will continue to run close to seasonal normals. Some high-level clouds will scoot by at times, with a thicker/more persistent batch forecast tonight to ~midday Wednesday, associated with a lobe of ~300 mb moisture inbound from the west.

Meanwhile, a broad trough/southwest flow pattern will establish across the western U.S. This will send a couple impulses our way during the weekend along with a sharp increase in vertical moisture content. This trend will support showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. The GFS and a majority of its ensembles show an earlier start to activity on Saturday whereas the ECMWF is later though a fraction of its ensembles are faster. The official forecast currently leans toward the scenario involving a potential faster onset of showers, so trick-or-treaters should at least consider wet-weather impacts. Wet weather is likely through the rest of the night, with the amount of lingering Sunday activity dependent on the speed of the system.

It looks like we'll have a lull in rainy weather early in the work week (next week), though forecast models show the potential for a stronger and larger system coming our way midweek, providing an opportunity for rainy (stormy?) weather.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF period.

Note: Fall seasonal issuance of the KASN Talladega TAF began on 10/18 00Z and will continue through 10/28 18Z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Regional high pressure will carry our rain-free weather through Friday. MinRHs will be as low as an upper 20 to low 30 percent range through Wednesday. Increasing dew points starting Thursday will nudge MinRH farther above critical thresholds. Rain is likely over the weekend, with the brunt of activity favoring Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 45 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 46 75 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 51 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 48 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 50 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 50 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 48 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 46 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.