textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 803 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026

- Tropical: Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly to the northwest then west across the Northern Gulf Coast through this week. At this time, no significant impacts are expected for Central Alabama.

- Heat: Moderate heat risk continues through Wednesday with heat indices reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026

Most computer models, and the official NHC forecast, has what is currently TD2 moving generally westward over the next couple of days. This track will keep the system from having any direct significant impacts on our weather here in central Alabama.

Sort of indirectly, it looks like we will be in a bit of an area of subsidence just beyond the periphery of the tropical system. This should help to keep afternoon convection to a relative minimum through the day tomorrow, with the possible exception of the far southeastern counties. This will also help keep temperatures a bit higher than normal as well. Highest heat index values will be close to advisory criteria on Tuesday, and will continue the Heat Advisory as is.

We start to get into more of a northwest flow upper air pattern by the end of the week, as the big upper high becomes more established out west and a trough starts to dig into the east. This should get temperatures back down to more manageable levels, while also opening the door of opportunity for thunderstorm clusters/MCSs to affect our area.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026

A few lingering evening showers will persist past sunset. Otherwise, look for light and variable to east / southeast winds overnight. Winds during the day on Tuesday will be generally east to southeast at 6-11 kts and a few higher afternoon gusts as Tropical Storm Bertha passes westward along the Gulf Coast. Low rain chances will be present, but will be too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central Alabama. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 94 75 93 / 20 10 10 40 Anniston 73 93 75 92 / 20 10 10 40 Birmingham 75 94 76 94 / 20 10 10 30 Tuscaloosa 76 95 77 95 / 20 10 0 20 Calera 74 97 75 96 / 20 10 10 30 Auburn 74 90 75 90 / 20 20 20 50 Montgomery 74 93 75 94 / 20 20 20 40 Troy 73 90 74 91 / 20 40 20 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion- Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.