textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

- Thunderstorms: Strong to severe storms are possible through the weekend. These storms will be capable of producing localized gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

A few showers and storms may linger through the overnight hours, as the boundary continues to work its way south. With that being said, this boundary will continue to become more diffuse the farther it gets away from the main trough to the north, becoming far less potent come tomorrow afternoon. However, during this same time, a closed low will begin to form on the southernmost end of the trough, slowly working its way to the SE. Between this closed low pressure and the weakening boundary, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with the best coverage expected along and south of I-20. Given ample instability, a few of these storms could still become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main severe weather threat.

As we move into Monday, this closed low will meander southeastward, stalling near the Tennessee River Valley sometime during the morning hours. This low will serve as the catalyst for multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday as it lingers across the region. By Wednesday, the low should start to shift west, as a high-pressure begins to build in over the East Coast. Rain chances during this time will shift back into typical summertime diurnally driven convection, remaining this way into next weekend. Afternoon highs will begin to climb under this ridge as well, slowly sneaking right back up into the low to mid-90s by next Saturday.

/44/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

An outflow boundary will continue to move through the area, with isolated activity developing though the rest of the night. Left PROB30 to account for uncertainty in timing and coverage. Sunday, scattered to widespread convection led to the inclusion of VCSH in each TAF, with a PROB30 to account for any thunderstorms that move directly over a site. Moisture will be high, so any storm will produce IFR or LIFR visibilities over a TAF site, and gusting winds will be common. Activity should weaken after sunset. Models have isolated showers and a few storms developing through the night Sunday night. For now, with coverage expected to be less, have left mention out of TAF for now.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

24

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and moist air mass will persist through the weekend, accompanied by light to calm winds. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected into Monday as a weak system moves into the region and stalls through early next week. No fire weather concerns are anticipated over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 88 70 84 68 / 70 60 90 70 Anniston 88 71 84 69 / 80 60 90 70 Birmingham 89 72 86 70 / 80 50 80 60 Tuscaloosa 89 72 87 71 / 80 50 70 60 Calera 92 72 88 70 / 80 50 80 70 Auburn 91 72 85 71 / 70 60 80 60 Montgomery 93 72 87 70 / 60 70 80 60 Troy 92 71 85 69 / 60 70 80 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.