textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days due to dryness, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air early next week.

- Drought conditions are expected to worsen across Central Alabama despite the potential for light rain amounts Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026

The upper-level pattern will slowly begin to break down over the next 36-hours, as a deep trough and cold front begin to move east out of the central Plains. Rain chances will finally return to the forecast by late Saturday evening, as this cold front begins to work into the region. While any rain at this point is welcomed, it will hardly be the rainfall the region needs to make any sort of meaningful impact on the ongoing drought. Most locations will generally see between a quarter and a half-inch of rainfall when its all said and done Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures behind the cold front will drop some 15-20 degrees, with afternoon highs on Sunday ranging in the upper-60s to low-70s. With that being said, temperatures will quickly rebound as a subtle ridge works back into the region. While this climb will be slow, afternoon highs should be back in the low-80s by Wednesday.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026

Confidence is high that we will see VFR conditions for the entire TAF period, with high pressure in place. Winds will be light overnight and between 7 to 10 knots during the day.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions will remain elevated into the weekend, with fuels remaining critically dry. While confidence is fairly high that we will see rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday, it still won't be the drought busting rain that we desperately need. Winds will be strong over the weekend as well, as a cold front moves through the region, before slightly dropping into Monday and Tuesday.

Unfortunately, it looks like MinRH will dramatically drop behind this front, with low MinRH values expected for most of next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 57 88 59 / 10 10 10 0 Anniston 84 60 88 61 / 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 85 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 85 61 89 62 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 85 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.