textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across northern and western parts of Alabama on Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: There is a potential for heavy rainfall this weekend across the eastern portion of central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

The leading edge of the trough and cold front will begin to work into the region by tomorrow afternoon, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow. The first round will be sometime during the morning, as a leading shortwave pushes east. The main thunderstorm activity will be in the late afternoon and evening hours, when the cold front proper begins to push into the state. PWAT values will remain very high tomorrow, and many of these storms will be prolific rainfall producers. In the event storms start to train, or storm motions slow down, localized flash flooding can be expected given the high rainfall rates. Thankfully, these areas should be limited in scope, and widespread flooding and flash flooding is not anticipated. The SPC has also maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for tomorrow, with damaging winds remaining the main threat with any strong to severe thunderstorm activity.

As the trough and low pressure continue to drop towards the southeast, it will start to become disconnected from the main trough axis to the north. This now cutoff low will linger across the Ohio Valley into the middle of next week, keeping elevated rain chances in the forecast through Wednesday. This will also aid in keeping afternoon high temperatures suppressed, with highs expected to stay in the upper-80s and low-90s. Unfortunately, this closed low will become absorbed back into the upper-level flow by Thursday, as a ridge builds off to the west. This should allow for afternoon highs to climb back into the low to mid-90s once more headed into next weekend.

/44/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026

First area of showers and isolated thunderstorms has moved eastward, away from central Alabama TAF sites except AUO. It is taking a while for the clouds to lift at MGM behind this rain area, but conditions elsewhere have improved to VFR. Where it was VFR, I think conditions will stay that way until the next batch of SHRA/TSRA arrives later in the forecast period. MGM should join the VFR parade pretty quickly, but it may take a few hours to get there at AUO.

Latest computer model guidance shows the best chances of rain in the northern terminals (TCL, BHM, EET). Airmass is still quite tropical in nature, and for aviation purposes this means that the showers/storms will be quite efficient at dropping visibilities below 3SM, and perhaps as low as 1SM. The lowered conditions should not last more an hour or so, as the line/band of storms should move through rather quickly.

Computer model low level moisture profile forecasts strongly suggest low cloud redevelopment overnight after the rain moves out, with slow improvement after sunrise.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help keep fire weather concerns in check into next week, with MinRH values expected to remain above 45 percent through Wednesday. Heavy rain is also expected at times over the weekend. Some drier air begins to work in from the east by next Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 88 69 87 / 90 10 10 70 Anniston 72 87 70 86 / 80 10 10 60 Birmingham 72 86 70 86 / 80 10 10 60 Tuscaloosa 71 87 70 88 / 70 10 10 40 Calera 71 88 69 88 / 80 0 10 50 Auburn 73 86 72 85 / 60 30 10 40 Montgomery 73 90 71 90 / 60 10 10 20 Troy 73 89 70 89 / 40 40 30 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.