textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 727 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts to impact parts of central Alabama this afternoon and evening.

- Less humid conditions are forecast Wednesday through Friday, including a break from recent rainy weather.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

The complex of thunderstorms we've been advertising the last few days is currently gaining strength to our north, with the general trends remaining it dropping south over the course of this afternoon. A tight axis of high instability values currently stretches N/S across the state, meaning this complex of storms will have plenty of energy to sustain itself over the course of the day. We're running a few hours behind schedule, but the consensus remains that this complex will work across the region, following this larger axis of instability towards the coast. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat with these strong to severe thunderstorms.

The pattern we've been stuck in these last few weeks will finally begin to break down on Tuesday, as a cold front starts to work into the area from the NE, aided by a deepening trough over the East Coast. Once this front moves through, high pressure will quickly build in, suppressing rain chances into the weekend. Low rain chances appear possible as moisture increases into Saturday, with mostly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms anticipated.

/44/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

Central Alabama terminals are now behind an earlier complex of severe thunderstorms. Convective blowoff will result in VFR cloudiness through the evening. There's conflicting signals in terms of sub-VFR categories tonight from low cloud development and fog. Current TAFs reflect a trend to MVFR, though IFR could manifest. We'll monitor that for adjustments. High-resolution models suggest another mid-level wave tonight could trigger a cluster of showers/thunderstorms along lingering outflow boundaries. This is mentioned via a PROB30 group from ~05z-10z.

After any reductions overnight to early Tuesday morning, a return to VFR is forecast by mid-morning, followed by a scattering of showers and thunderstorms through the day.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the week ahead. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and Tuesday. Rain- free and less-humid weather is likely Wednesday through Friday. Moisture values climb again this weekend with at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms returning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 82 56 79 / 30 30 10 0 Anniston 67 82 58 78 / 30 40 10 0 Birmingham 68 83 60 79 / 30 40 10 0 Tuscaloosa 71 86 64 82 / 40 30 10 0 Calera 68 86 60 81 / 30 40 10 0 Auburn 69 84 62 77 / 30 60 30 0 Montgomery 70 86 63 80 / 20 40 30 0 Troy 70 88 62 79 / 30 40 50 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.