textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms may produce localized gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026

Ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms will hold together through roughly 1 AM before finally dissipating for the rest of the overnight. Most of this convection has developed along an outflow that was moving west, while the main upper flow is to the east. Further west in MS, a large outflow continues to slide east near the I-55 corridor, the outflow is beginning to get out ahead of the activity, and main support from a weak trough. We should continue to see a trend of less coverage as the outflow approaches western AL overnight

The weak trough over the MS River Valley has almost completed its transition into a closed low, which will persist across the region through Wednesday. It will eventually be pushed out by a shortwave traveling along a larger- scale trough over the Plains. Consequently, scattered showers and storms are expected to continue through Wednesday, with higher- than- normal coverage due to the low providing a more defined focus than typical summertime patterns. While most activity will occur during the afternoon, some storms may persist through midnight over the next 48 hours.

By Thursday and Friday, storm coverage is expected to decrease as the forcing associated with the low weakens. The highest rain chances will shift toward the eastern third of the area, returning to the hit-or-miss variety characteristic of a typical summertime regime.

Over the weekend, a weak shortwave sliding east from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic will provide a glancing blow to the region. While specific timing and coverage remain uncertain, expect a warm and humid pattern to continue with daily chances for scattered showers and storms. This feature may lead to better coverage across the north, where outflow boundaries and convective interactions could enhance development. Otherwise, afternoon highs will remain near seasonal normals, ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.

16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Expect dry conditions this morning, followed by cumulus development from late morning into the afternoon while chances for showers and storms increase through the afternoon hours with confidence high enough to include at all sites starting around 18z north and a bit later across the southern sites and continuing through 23z. Activity will gradually decrease through the evening hours under scattered clouds areawide.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 71 91 72 / 30 30 40 30 Anniston 92 72 91 73 / 20 20 20 20 Birmingham 93 73 91 74 / 30 30 40 30 Tuscaloosa 92 73 91 74 / 30 30 40 20 Calera 94 73 94 73 / 20 30 30 20 Auburn 92 74 91 74 / 30 20 20 20 Montgomery 94 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 20 Troy 93 73 93 74 / 30 20 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.