textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026 - Above normal temperatures are expected for the latter part of this week into the first half of the weekend.

- Increased rain chances are expected for the end of the week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026

Cloudy and dreary conditions are expected generally through the short term as generous Gulf moisture will be present in the lower levels. However, with S-SW winds around, temperatures will still be warm and a tad muggy for mid Feb. Low rain chances will be present tonight into the daytime on Thu as weak upper blips/ disturbances traverse through the upper SW flow. A low pressure system is present across MN today with a frontal boundary swirling SEWD around Lake Michigan then back SWD across IL/IN and SWWD toward TX. The extending frontal boundary into TX should stall out later tonight. However, another low developing on the lee of the Rockies should kick it back moving toward AL during the day Thu. The low should move ENE out of the Rockies across the Central Plains tonight into Thu toward the Great Lakes. It will then drag the frontal boundary stalled over TX toward the MS River Valley. Rain chances will increase across C AL Thu night into Fri in advance of this front. The front should slow down/stall across C AL Fri into Sat before finally pushing through Sat night. A few tstorms may occur Fri into Sat ahead of the front, but severe storms are not anticipated ATTM. Much cooler weather will be ushered into the area behind the front for Sat night into the beginning of next week with lows back below freezing for most for Sun night and Mon night.

08

Previous discussion: (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 954 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026

With increasing moisture across the region and isentropic lift, expect another day of lower clouds for much of the area and low chances (15-20%) for light rain showers through the day on Wednesday. As the frontal boundary approaches Thursday into Friday, look for medium to high rain chances (60-70%). The frontal boundary is expected to stall across Central AL Friday through at least Saturday night before a secondary trough swings through and pushes the frontal boundary south and east of our areas on Sunday. This sets up for a rainy weekend for most of Central AL. We'll have to watch for a few stronger storms across the south on Saturday, but the overall dynamics aren't overly impressive at this point.

After the system exits our area Sunday, cooler and drier air builds in across Central AL for the first half of next week. Diurnal temperatures will return to more seasonable ranges for this time of year.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. MVFR conditions return overnight, generally after 07Z. IFR ceilings are likely around 12Z through roughly 16Z. VFR conditions return by mid day. South-southwesterly winds will increase by late morning with gusts around 20 knots likely at times. Isolated showers are expected through the day tomorrow. However, activity looks to remain too isolated to include in the TAFs at this time.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

With the increased moisture in the region, minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical values through the end of the week and into the weekend. There are low chances for light rain showers tonight into the day Thursday, increasing to medium to high rain chances Thursday night through Saturday night as a frontal boundary moves into Central Alabama and stalls.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 78 60 76 / 20 20 80 30 Anniston 59 78 61 75 / 20 20 80 40 Birmingham 61 78 62 76 / 20 20 80 30 Tuscaloosa 59 79 61 77 / 20 20 80 30 Calera 59 79 61 77 / 20 20 80 40 Auburn 61 79 65 77 / 20 20 80 60 Montgomery 61 81 66 80 / 20 20 80 60 Troy 61 81 65 80 / 20 20 80 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.