textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 119 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

- Rain: Showers and storms remain in the forecast through tonight. Rainfall amounts will generally be between one half inch to 2 inches across portions of Central Alabama with locally higher amounts possible across the southeast portions generally south of Interstate 85.

- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and persist into the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

Over the last 24-hours, there has been an unfortunate and substantial shift in the forecast, resulting in a dramatic decrease in previously forecasted rainfall amounts. Previously, the disturbance moving inland from the Gulf was expected to briefly move along the MS/AL state line, before taking a hard pivot east. It was this brief period of north movement that was going to allow for plenty of interaction along the front, resulting in the widespread 2+ inches of rainfall. Now, this disturbance is favoring a direct E/NE movement, moving along the FL coastline before working inland once the front has pushed through most of the state. Because of this, the main axis for higher rainfall amounts continues to shift south, since the bulk of the tropical influence will stay south as well. At this time, the main corridor for 2+ inches of rain remains along and south of I-85. Even this is on the northern fringe of the tropical disturbance, and rainfall totals may creep down here as well. North of I-85, the bulk of the rainfall today will fall along, or slightly ahead of the cold front, with rainfall totals expected to amount to near an inch or less.

Another slight shift in the forecast are temperatures for next week. The low pressure over the Midwest has also taken a more eastward track, meaning that the trough won't dig as far south as previously expected. The cold front will quickly retrograde north, allowing for highs to stabilize in the upper-70s east, to upper-80s west. Overnight lows on the other hand are still expected to fall into a more seasonal feel, as cooler air filters down the Appalachian Mountains, with lows generally ranging in the 50s.

/44/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected across all sites as low-level moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate confidence (70%) in widespread SHRA developing after 21Z as frontal forcing strengthens. Isolated TSRA is possible, but confidence remains low (<20%), so TS was excluded from TAFs. High confidence (80%) in ceilings deteriorating to IFR after sunset due to lingering boundary layer saturation. Winds will remain light throughout the period.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Light to moderate rain will be possible through this evening across much of the area. By late tonight into Monday the focus shifts south while the north dries out. Drier and cooler air returns on Tuesday and persists through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 67 83 55 83 / 60 0 0 0 Anniston 68 81 58 82 / 60 10 0 0 Birmingham 69 83 59 84 / 60 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 69 85 60 89 / 60 10 0 0 Calera 68 82 61 84 / 70 10 0 0 Auburn 69 79 63 79 / 90 30 20 0 Montgomery 71 82 64 82 / 90 30 20 10 Troy 70 79 64 81 / 90 40 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.