textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with only minimal rain chances in the forecast. Drought conditions will worsen.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

A broad 590dam mid-level ridge is in place over Florida today with a Bermuda High at the surface with axis extending west through the Deep South. This stubborn setup continues to deflect the active weather to our north and west, leaving us with sunny/mostly clear conditions and warming temperatures. As we progress through the week, a shortwave trough and associated weak cold front will attempt to advance into the area as a surface low tracks across the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Forcing along the front will be weakening with eastward extent and the lack of moisture across the area will only result in maybe a few sprinkles or light showers in our far northwest, but really nothing appreciable as the ridge looks to maintain dominance through the end of the week. In fact, a few areas will warm to near record highs on Friday.

A stronger system will rotate across the Upper Plains on Saturday then lift across Ontario on Sunday. This longwave trough should do a better job of dampening the ridge across the Southeast, and chances continue to look favorable for at least medium chances of rain and some thunderstorms across the northwestern half of Central Alabama Saturday night into Sunday morning as another cold front moves into the region. Once again, however, the front will be moving into less favorable conditions (less available moisture) with eastward extend. Therefore, the greatest chances of seeing measurable rainfall will be focused in areas generally northwest of I-20/59 where there are low to medium chances of rainfall amounts up to 0.5" with much lesser amounts forecast to the southeast of there. The front will move east of the area by Sunday afternoon with a more seasonable to even slightly below average temperature profile expected to start next week as dry conditions resume. Expect drought conditions to continue to deteriorate across Central Alabama with some locations forecast to experience rapid onset drought due to the lack of meaningful rainfall in the forecast. In association with this, fire danger will remain elevated, and outdoor burning is discouraged.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

High pressure over the region will promote another set of VFR TAFs. The main consideration will be occasional gusts from the south- southwest up to 15-18 kts this afternoon. Calm to light winds expected by 00-01Z then increasing again to 5-8 kts by 15Z. Advection fog is forecast to develop along the coast again tonight, moving inland during the early morning hours tomorrow. Will be watching trends closely as it advects towards TCL, but expecting the fog deck to remain south of the terminal before it mixes out after sunrise tomorrow.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs today and Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. It will also lead to increased fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week as much drier air moves back into the region.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972

April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 54 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 57 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.