textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026

- There is a risk of flash flooding will continue through early afternoon. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area through 6 PM this evening. - Temperatures will quickly fall late this afternoon and overnight and will become below average to start the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1100 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026

At this writing, the forecast area is positioned between a deep closed low over Northeast Minnesota and Broad mid-level Ridging over the Southeast Gulf and much of Florida. Surface low pressure was moving east across the Ohio River Valley region while a surface cold front extended from the low southwest into the ArkLaTex region while a secondary weaker surface low was moving northeast across the Tennessee Valley Region.

Showers with a few thunderstorms will slowly move southeast across the southeast half of the area through late afternoon with drier air moving in from the northwest. Clouds will persist areawide this afternoon and evening though the rain will end areawide by late evening. Expect much cooler temperatures overnight as northwest winds continue to advect cooler and drier air into the area with readings bottoming out from the mid 30s far north to the low 40s southeast of the Interstate 85 corridor.

Expect dry conditions to persist areawide from Sunday through Tuesday evening. The deep troughing will move east over the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions Sunday while a northwest flow pattern becomes established aloft over the area, followed by a more zonal flow pattern developing by Tuesday as a closed low moves east out of Northern Mexico to over South Texas toward the area Wednesday while another deep trough swings southeast over the Midwest to over the Tennessee Valley Region by Thursday. As a result, expect rain chances to increase late Tuesday evening through Thursday morning, followed by a return to drier conditions to end the week.

05

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026

Rain showers will continue to affect EET/MGM/AUO through midday, while shower activity ends at TCL/BHM before noon. Expect IFR conditions to persist through the afternoon and evening before some gradual improvement in ceilings early Sunday morning then a return to areawide VFR expected by the afternoon. Winds will be from the northwest from 10-15 kts on average through this cycle.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances will decrease this evening with dry conditions returning areawide by midnight tonight and looks to persist through Tuesday afternoon. Expect surface winds from the northwest winds this afternoon and into Sunday from 10-20 mph. Cooler temperatures with drier air will move into the area from the northwest tonight and Sunday, resulting in afternoon RH values dipping into the mid 30 to low 40 percent range Sunday afternoon then dropping into the 30 percent range Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 35 47 23 / 100 10 0 0 Anniston 70 36 48 25 / 90 10 0 0 Birmingham 68 37 47 27 / 100 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 68 37 51 27 / 100 0 0 0 Calera 70 37 51 27 / 100 10 0 0 Auburn 72 42 52 29 / 90 30 0 0 Montgomery 75 40 53 27 / 90 20 0 0 Troy 76 42 54 28 / 90 30 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton- Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-Hale-Jefferson- Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.