textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026

- Hurricane Isaias will continue to move north across the state through the day.

- Winds: Gusts as high as 50 to 60+ mph early this morning will result in the potential for widespread downed trees and power lines.

- Rain: Amounts of 1.5 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches will result in the potential for flash flooding, especially in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026

A busy night is unfolding across Central Alabama as Hurricane Isaias continues to move north across the state. The system made landfall at 8:30 PM near Destin, FL with max sustained winds of 105 MPH. The system has gradually weakened as it makes its way further inland. However, this weakening will lead to an expanding wind field across most of Central Alabama. Latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest swaths of 50-60 MPH winds through mid morning. Our other concern this morning is our heavy rainfall threat. MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates with some of the heavier activity are ranging from 3-4"/hr. At this point, we are still expecting 2-4" of rain with isolated higher amounts. We are currently not planning on any changes to our watch/warning configuration with the 1 AM update. We will reevaluate the situation through the morning and start clearing counties from the tropical products suite.

A decaying Isaias quickly peels off to the northeast late this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the region. This will lead to a stretch of warm and dry conditions with highs settling into the mid to upper 80s daily. Mornings look nice with lows in the mid to upper

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026

Poor aviation conditions will persist throughout this TAF cycle as Hurricane Isaias continues to move north across the state. MVFR/IFR conditions expected at all terminals due to heavy rain and low clouds, with winds gusting from 40 to 50 knots at times. LLWS is also expected through late morning. Conditions will gradually improve through the day as winds weaken through the mid to late morning hours. Low level ceilings are likely to persist through this cycle.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Deep tropical moisture will remain in place throughout the day which will help keep min RHs generally above 70-80%. Tropical rains will gradually come to an end through the morning as Isaias moves north across the state. Drier air moves back across the region late this weekend and into next week as ridging builds back in.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 56 77 55 / 100 50 10 0 Anniston 75 58 77 56 / 80 50 10 0 Birmingham 71 58 79 59 / 80 50 10 0 Tuscaloosa 70 57 86 57 / 80 40 0 0 Calera 71 58 79 58 / 70 30 0 0 Auburn 77 59 77 59 / 60 20 0 0 Montgomery 75 59 82 59 / 30 10 0 0 Troy 76 57 81 58 / 20 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Autauga- Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah.