textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

- Locally dense fog, and low clouds in areas of higher terrain, will reduce visibility through 9 am today.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night. A low risk for severe thunderstorms may arise with this system.

- Clear and much cooler conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

The weekend:

A pattern of isentropic lift is in place per Friday evening weather balloon data from NWS Birmingham, with the last mid-level impulse of the series scooting across the Tennessee Valley. This setup will promote gloomy conditions overnight with bouts of showers, drizzle, and fog. Past this morning, improved weather conditions should evolve during the afternoon, though spotty showers/a short-lived thunderstorm could develop southeast of the 20 ahead of an approaching front. As long as warming isn't too hampered by morning clouds, afternoon high temperatures could top out near records. The frontal passage will bring clear and mild weather for Sunday.

Early to mid next week:

A shortwave ridge axis will quickly move across the region on Monday, providing us with another day of tame weather. On its heels will be a trough that is forecast to bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. There has been little change in the setup amongst forecast guidance. While a northward advection of at least weakly unstable air is shown alongside a sheared wind profile, forcing quickly ejects to the northeast of our area early in the event; this combined with the widespread nature of precipitation continues to lend an uncertain prospect for severe thunderstorms. The latest assessment matches that of the past few days in that any severe risk looks low at this time. Beneficial rainfall is obvious though. For Wednesday, ensemble data still show a scenario of a slower frontal passage, resulting in lingering activity should that pan out.

Thanksgiving Day:

It will finally feel like autumn again! Model consensus holds onto fair-weather conditions for Thanksgiving, featuring a clear sky and cool temperatures (afternoon 50s after morning 30s).

Into next weekend:

High pressure should be in control for Friday and Saturday with continued clear weather and chilly mornings/mild afternoons. The next trough/rain-maker may try to nudge into here after Saturday, but there's quite a bit of model variability at that range, of course.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

There are some pre-frontal SHRAs/TSRAs in the ERN portions of the area that will exit soon to the E. Think that this activity should stay away from TAF sites for now, but will need to monitor possibly MGM/AUO for later today for any isolated development ahead of the frontal passage. Otherwise, LIFR-MVFR cigs along with some MVFR-IFR VSBYs are present. Not expecting the fog to get as low as the past few days. Conditions should improve to VFR between 17-19z across the area. The front should move through this afternoon with winds shifting. Some wrap around stratus is possible late tonight from the N/W. ATTM only confident enough to mention at TCL after 9z.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs are forecast to remain well above, and winds below, critical thresholds over the next several days. Relatively low MinRHs look to return late next week.

Some lingering showers/an isolated thunderstorm will be around for part of Saturday though, overall, it won't be as rainy as yesterday. Otherwise, a chunk of the region will become clear by or during the afternoon. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, poised to offer between one to two inches of rain, on average, across central Alabama.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1230 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 22: KBHM: 79/1900 KEET: 77/2010 KANB: 79/1963 KTCL: 79/1979 KMGM: 81/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 48 70 41 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 77 50 70 43 / 30 0 0 0 Birmingham 76 52 70 47 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 78 50 72 45 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 79 50 72 44 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 77 54 72 48 / 20 10 0 0 Montgomery 80 53 74 47 / 20 10 0 0 Troy 80 53 74 47 / 20 10 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.