textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for Saturday morning from 6am to 11am for the southern third of the state. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Another marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for Sunday evening into Monday morning for the southern half of Central Alabama. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 127 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026

This evening surface high pressure is weakening across the Deep South with a stationary boundary across the Gulf Coast. The satellite picture once again has cirrus across Alabama, but satellite and observations also confirm low stratus forming ahead of the approaching convection across Central Alabama along with thunderstorms and associated clouds to our west in Mississippi approaching the state line. This convection is thanks to an opening upper low/shortwave over West Texas. Showers, and some thunderstorms at times, will spread across Central Alabama over the next few hours and continue through the morning before the weakening wave moves eastward out of the area. There is a very small chance of a strong to severe storm across the far southeast counties Saturday morning before the wave exits. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

A few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms may occur Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the main activity should hold off till late in the afternoon in the northwest counties as our next frontal system approaches. While guidance is looking less convincing in regards to instability, there may be just enough with frontal forcing for a few strong to marginally severe storms ahead of the front Sunday night into early Monday morning. The best chances will be across the southern counties. Threats include damaging winds and large hail. Monday morning guidance shows the surface front through, but shower and thunderstorm chances lag behind during the day until the longwave upper trough moves past Alabama. Conditions clear and cool during Monday night with rain-free conditions expected for the latter part of the forecast through next Thursday.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026

Poor aviation conditions are in place this morning as a cluster of showers and storms have left MVFR to LIFR ceilings across all terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing at AUO/MGM so we have left a mention of TSRA in for the next couple of hours. Ceilings will be slow to improve today with VFR eventually returning to BHM/EET/TCL around mid day. Latest time heights and forecast soundings suggest AUO/MGM will remain MVFR through the afternoon. This TAF update reflects that scenario. Overall, fairly low confidence in the ceilings for AUO/MGM. Amendments will likely be needed through the day. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings develop late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing rain chances through the weekend will help keep min RH values generally above 50%. Drier air returns on Monday in the wake of a cold front with min RH values falling to 30-40% by Tuesday afternoon. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 78 55 82 57 / 20 0 20 40 Anniston 77 57 82 59 / 30 10 20 30 Birmingham 79 60 83 62 / 20 10 20 40 Tuscaloosa 79 60 84 61 / 40 10 20 50 Calera 79 59 84 61 / 50 10 20 50 Auburn 76 62 81 63 / 80 10 20 40 Montgomery 77 61 82 62 / 80 20 20 50 Troy 77 62 82 62 / 80 30 40 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.