textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 657 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 am today. Fog, and low clouds in areas of higher terrain, will greatly restrict visibility at times.

- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama this afternoon and evening. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail. Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.

- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central Alabama late Wednesday afternoon and night. Threats including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday, followed by a brief cooldown. There is a medium to high chance for low temperatures reaching the upper 30s Friday morning when conditions may become supportive of patchy frost.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

Today's severe risk: A low-amplitude, shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region within an environment characterized by weak to moderate instability, decent low- and mid-level lapse rates, and bulk shear sufficient for organized thunderstorms. Based on the HREF, a complex of showers and thunderstorms will initiate just west of the Mississippi River along the leading edge of a mid-level speed max. This activity will then move eastward and affect our area within a mid afternoon to evening time frame. The surface flow pattern across Central Alabama doesn't look too favorable for generating localized robust thunderstorms. Instead, our environment should support the approaching batch of matured thunderstorms, with that activity being our main show. Forecast soundings indicate damaging wind gusts and large hail (as large as between 1-2 inches in diameter) to be the primary hazards. While this activity will be quick-moving, high rainfall rates could cause brief, minor flooding. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could persist overnight as another mid-level impulse moves across, though are not likely to be severe with the environment being worked over.

Tuesday: There's not a whole lot for this day as a shortwave ridge translates across the Gulf Coast. As such, despite variable clouds, temperatures will take an upward bump with highs reaching the low 80s for a large portion of Central Alabama. That's between 10-20 degrees above typical numbers. The ridge isn't a total squasher, though, so isolated showers could manage to develop along the fringe of the ridge.

Wednesday's severe risk: Seasonably warm conditions continue. A southern-stream shortwave trough is shown to merge with another trough just to its north. By late Wednesday, a large, sharp trough axis will be on our doorstep, driving a long line of showers and thunderstorms. Model have shown a slower trend in terms of the arrival of this system, with it leaning toward an (almost) exclusively nighttime event for Central Alabama. Shear profiles and weak, but sufficient, instability will offer a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. I'm not too sold on the large hail threat at this juncture, but there could be an isolated occurrence. While this activity will be progressive, high rainfall rates could cause brief, minor flooding.

Late week cooldown: A brief dip in temperatures follows Wednesday's storm system. The coldest period looks to be Friday morning. Guidance has a medium to high chance for low temperatures slipping into the 30s for parts of Central Alabama. Forecast winds and relative humidity suggest patchy frost could be in the cards barring any changes.

The weekend: Tame weather conditions are forecast for Saturday and Sunday with a return to seasonably warm conditions.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

Low stratus and areas of dense fog are ongoing ATTM. The fog should continue for the next 2-3 then improving. Low cigs will hang around much longer to some extent. SHRAs and TSRAs are expected later this afternoon and into this evening ahead of a frontal system, arriving earliest for TCL/BHM/EET and later for MGM/AUO.

08

FIRE WEATHER

There are no low RH concerns over the next few days. It wont be until after Wednesday's strong front that lower dew points return and promote lower afternoon MinRHs (Thu-Sat in the 30% range). Winds will be southwesterly near 5 mph today, then southerly between 5-10 mph on Tuesday, and southerly around 10-15 mph on Wednesday (shifting to the northwest overnight). Scattered afternoon to evening thunderstorms are forecast for today, some of which may be severe with strong wind gusts and large hail. Tuesday is looking quieter and seasonably warm. A line of showers and thunderstorms is likely late Wednesday afternoon to night, some of which may be severe. A period of rain-free weather is forecast late week into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 59 79 61 / 70 60 30 0 Anniston 78 61 80 62 / 70 50 30 0 Birmingham 77 63 80 64 / 70 60 20 0 Tuscaloosa 78 63 83 64 / 70 60 10 0 Calera 79 62 82 63 / 70 60 20 0 Auburn 79 63 81 64 / 30 60 10 0 Montgomery 81 63 84 64 / 50 50 10 0 Troy 82 63 84 63 / 30 50 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.