textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Thursday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Thursday.

- Thunderstorms: Portions of the region are under Marginal Risks (Level 1 of 5) today and Thursday, with damaging winds being the primary hazard if storms do become strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the remainder of the week, with upper-level ridging in place across the region. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values above 105F again today and Thursday across much of the region. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for many counties in Central Alabama, with only the eastern and southeastern portions being excluded. Heat indices in these counties will still likely be over 100F.

A Level 1 Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is maintained for today and again for tomorrow, mainly across northern and western counties in Central Alabama. Damaging winds remain the primary risk. Latest CAMs have indicated the potential for greater areal coverage today vs. yesterday, with thunderstorms concentrated along and north of the I-20 corridor. Although this does not appear to be a widespread event, any storms that do form in this high CAPE environment will carry a microburst risk. Thursday looks to have a similar setup to today, with scattered thunderstorm activity and damaging wind potential primarily across the northern half of the region.

By the weekend, rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase as the upper-level ridging breaks down. This slight pattern change will aid the development of more diurnally-driven afternoon convection and hold high temperatures just to the low to mid 90s instead.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

We may see some TEMPO MVFR visibility at EET, TCL, MGM, and AUO right at sunrise. Thunderstorm activity will be more likely across the northern half of Central Alabama in the afternoon and early evening; therefore, I continued the PROB30 for TSRA to begin at 20Z tomorrow at BHM, EET, and TCL. There is a small chance that showers work into MGM. I do not have enough confidence to include PROB30, but did continue to include VCSH at 23Z through 4z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into the weekend, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The main axis of rain activity will shift to the northern half of Central Alabama today and Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 96 76 97 75 / 40 40 30 20 Anniston 95 75 95 74 / 40 40 30 20 Birmingham 97 77 96 77 / 40 40 30 20 Tuscaloosa 97 77 95 77 / 50 40 20 10 Calera 97 76 97 75 / 40 40 20 10 Auburn 94 75 93 75 / 20 10 10 0 Montgomery 96 75 95 75 / 20 10 10 0 Troy 94 74 94 73 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.