textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day through the week, with low to medium chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

We are continuing with a wet pattern thanks to a southerly flow both in the lower levels and the upper levels. In the lower levels, surface ridging is situated eastward off the coast from the Carolinas to Florida with onshore flow around it into Alabama. At the same time in the upper levels, Alabama is caught in between a ridge from Florida southeastward and a large low over the Western US Coast again with southerly flow in between. Wednesday is expected to be another day of diurnally enhanced elevated rain chances for the afternoon with no main focus.

On Thursday, the latest guidance indicates that ridging will break down over Florida into the Western Atlantic Coast. More upper disturbances will start to meander across the Deep South from shortwave activity ejecting toward Alabama from the Western US main low through the flow. Upper flow will transition on Friday, to a more west-northwest flow as an upper low moves northeast over the Northern Rockies, ridging expands northward some from Mexico and the Western Gulf, and a second large low feature cycles over Eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England. It will allow for a surface frontal boundary to nudge into Alabama Friday and slowly nudge southward across the state over the weekend. All of this change will result in even better rain chances for Friday through Monday. Lower rain chances will continue behind the front for portions of the area on Tuesday until the large upper system can swing across Eastern Conus.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026

Another night with ragged ceilings developing across central Alabama, providing another difficult forecast for area TAF sites. Rain should not be an issue early on, as radar sweeps do show the few remaining light showers were north and east of TAF sites. Computer model moisture profiles overnight look much like they did at this time yesterday, with a strong suggestion of IFR conditions eventually developing. But this forecaster has a bit less confidence in IFR ceiling development than 24 hours ago, given the spotty nature of development last night. As a compromise, will keep the initial forecast at or above 600 ft, and update when/where needed.

Decided to go with a highly persistence flavored forecast beyond 12Z, with low clouds gradually lifting and VFR conditions by 16Z-18Z. Rain chances appear to take a small dip compared to recent days, so opted to go with PROB30 versus TEMPO conditions associated with afternoon thunderstorms.

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FIRE WEATHER

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of the week across Central Alabama. This pattern will lead to high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low clouds or fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather concerns at this time. Current VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate between 4-8z across Central Alabama as we remain in a wet onshore flow pattern There is a low to moderate chance for SHRA/TSRA at MGM/AUO this evening/tonight with a rain "break" for the rest. Cigs are expected to lower further to IFR/LIFR after 8z and continue through sunrise. Cigs will then slowly rise back to VFR by 17- 18z. More diurnally enhanced convection is expected across the area TAF sites again on Wednesday after 15z as no changes in the overall pattern are expected in the short term.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 66 84 65 / 60 30 60 40 Anniston 84 67 84 66 / 60 30 60 40 Birmingham 85 68 84 68 / 50 30 70 50 Tuscaloosa 86 69 85 69 / 60 30 80 50 Calera 86 68 86 67 / 60 20 70 40 Auburn 82 68 84 68 / 70 20 50 40 Montgomery 84 68 84 68 / 70 20 60 30 Troy 84 67 85 67 / 70 20 60 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.