textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Saturday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Saturday.

- Thunderstorms: Northern portions of the region are under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

Convection is almost gone for the evening with only a few deteriorating cells left on radar. Again, more convection will be expected for Friday afternoon. Weak ridging will remain in place across either Eastern Conus or the Southeast US through the next 7 days. In the upper levels, a large Eastern Conus ridge is in place, centered over Eastern Kentucky into Virginia. Through the short term, the center is expected to shift slightly toward Virginia and North Carolina. By Saturday, this ridge should transition to a weaker and flat ridge across the Southern US. Look for isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced convection as disturbances propagate around this ridge with the best chances across the northern half of Central Alabama for Friday and Saturday for the 4th. Some strong storms may occur again on Friday afternoon with a similar setup today with gusty winds being the main threat and longevity of the activity possible past sunset assisted by outflow boundary interactions. Afternoon heat indices will remain elevated for another couple of days, and we will keep the heat advisory going for now at least through the 4th.

By Sunday, slightly higher rain chances may help us be a couple of degrees lower and we may be able to escape the heat advisory for then. This will be due in part by guidance suggesting a break down in the upper ridge as a low digs over the Great Lakes. Slightly better moisture may be available on Sunday for more coverage with the best chances still in the afternoon. Medium chances for diurnal convection continue into the end of the extended period as the upper low is expected to dig across Eastern Conus on Monday. By Tuesday into mid week, this low should move off of the New England coast but leave broad troughing stretching southwest into Eastern Conus and continued diurnal convection chances. In the lower levels, a frontal boundary approaches the mid section of Eastern Conus, but stays well to our north as it stalls. However, this will help to enhance our convection chances across our northern sections as activity develops to the south of it.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today under a very unstable airmass. Given the nature and location of this activity, confidence is only high enough to carry PROB30 groups at TCL, BHM, and EET through 04/02z. Reduced VIS is also expected past 04/08z given the recent rainfall, with most terminals falling into MVFR category through 04/14z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into next week, with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 20 50 Anniston 74 94 74 93 / 20 20 20 50 Birmingham 76 95 75 94 / 20 20 20 50 Tuscaloosa 76 95 75 93 / 20 20 20 50 Calera 75 97 75 96 / 10 20 20 50 Auburn 75 94 75 92 / 10 20 20 40 Montgomery 76 95 76 94 / 10 20 10 40 Troy 74 95 74 93 / 0 20 10 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne-Lee-Macon-Pike- Randolph-Russell.