textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama for both Monday and Tuesday in the afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Our upper ridge of late is situated from WRN TN SWWD to Mexico. It is continuing to deteriorate as a closed low over Florida pushes westward toward the Northern Gulf Coast. At the same time, an upper shortwave will move EWD out of the Rockies and toward the Great Lakes late by Tuesday. Low to moderate chances for diurnally enhanced convection will continue daily through Tuesday. Some storms may be strong to severe at times, especially on Monday and Tuesday with the main threat of strong downburst winds. On Tuesday, guidance weakens/deteriorates the upper low over the coast. However, rain chances continue for Tuesday, but instead will be focusing on activity ahead of a cold front that should move through the area by Wednesday. Guidance has become favorable with a pattern shift taking this front through the area and bringing much welcome more "normal" temperature readings for this time of year into Central Alabama for the latter half of the week and into next weekend. We may even see a few 50s in our northern counties.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites the majority of the next 24 hours. There continues to be a low probability of MVFR fog near AUO toward sunrise. TEMPO group is maintained from the previous TAF from 09 to 13z. Tomorrow afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated once again. Enough confidence to introduce PROB30s for TSRA at BHM, TCL, and EET. Confidence is currently a little less in seeing activity at MGM and AUO, but that will be revisited in future TAF issuances.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 40%. Low to medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the middle of this week with light winds outside of convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 95 69 93 / 30 30 40 60 Anniston 70 93 70 92 / 30 30 30 50 Birmingham 73 95 72 93 / 30 30 20 50 Tuscaloosa 72 98 72 96 / 30 30 20 40 Calera 71 95 70 94 / 20 30 30 40 Auburn 71 92 71 91 / 20 20 30 30 Montgomery 72 94 72 94 / 20 20 30 20 Troy 70 93 70 94 / 20 10 30 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.