textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 157 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

- Dry conditions and comfortable mornings will persist through Thursday.

- Look for increasing chances of showers and storms starting Friday through Monday, with the best chances Saturday night through Sunday areawide. Rainfall amounts of generally 1 to 2 inches, locally higher are possible.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 157 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

The warming trend will persist through Friday. While humidity levels will remain relatively low, they will be higher than those observed this afternoon as moisture begins advecting from the Gulf. Positioned along the ridge, Central Alabama will experience south to southeasterly low-level flow through the remainder of the week, supporting onshore moisture return and steadily increasing dew points. Although moisture must recover further before significant precipitation can occur, low rain chances return late Thursday afternoon across the southern counties.

More substantial rain chances are delayed until late this weekend as an approaching frontal system slows. Consequently, the highest precipitation chances are expected Saturday night through Sunday. WPC has placed the area in a 5 to 15% risk of exceeding flash flood criteria late Saturday through Sunday as a 250mb jet streak slides to our north and puts northwest Alabama in the entrance side of the jet.

Confidence is medium-to-high that the front will stall or become slow-moving, keeping rain chances elevated into early next week. On Sunday, the proximity of the front will help usher in more Gulf moisture as a weak shortwave slides into southern Alabama ahead of the front. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are most likely across much of Central Alabama between Friday and Monday, though locally higher amounts remain possible. Increased cloud cover and widespread precipitation will moderate temperatures over the weekend. Guidance suggests sufficient upper- level support will eventually push the surface boundary through on Monday, ushering in cooler and drier conditions for the first half of next week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond with light SE winds.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will persist through Thursday with light winds. This afternoon minimum RH values are in the upper 20s through the 30s percent range across the region. Humidity values will increase on Thursday with values in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with 50s and low 60s on Friday as southerly flow returns. Rain chances return late this week and increase over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 59 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 20 Anniston 61 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 20 Birmingham 65 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 64 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 20 Calera 65 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 66 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 30 Montgomery 67 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 40 Troy 66 90 69 90 / 0 10 0 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.