textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026

- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and persist into the end of this week.

- Increased rain chances late this week into the weekend along with tropical moisture.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026

Rain will continue to clear the region this evening as the cold front tracks southward. The cold front will quickly retrograde northward on Tuesday, allowing high temperatures to rebound into the low to mid-80s. Meanwhile, cooler air filtering around the southern Appalachians will keep overnight lows pleasantly seasonable into Friday. However, we should remain dry for much of the week. Tweaked guidance a few degrees cooler in our normally colder valleys for the next several nights.

This steady pattern will persist through most of the workweek before breaking down heading into the weekend. Long-range guidance consistently points toward a synoptic pattern shift by Friday, though models vary on intensity, they consistently indicate a developing system. A weak low-pressure system is expected to form within the Bay of Campeche and interact with several shortwaves over the Gulf. This setup will draw in Gulf moisture and bring increasing rain chances as the energy moves inland. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast puts a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours (through Wednesday), and 80% chance of development within the next 7 days. While confidence is high that the current pattern will break down, confidence in the specific details remains low due to significant model variance and timing.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026

There is a chance for one last round of rain this afternoon for the TAF sites (MGM/AUO), but only lighter activity. Otherwise, scattered MVFR to VFR conditions will develop with drier air filtering in. While all sites should go VFR from 18-22z, some MVFR stratus behind the front may be noted again by late evening at AUO before enough of the drier air filters into the region.

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FIRE WEATHER

Light rain showers will continue across the southern third of Central Alabama through this evening. Drier and cooler air returns Tuesday, persisting through late week. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Friday into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 59 82 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 62 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 62 83 58 85 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 63 79 60 80 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 64 82 61 83 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 63 80 59 82 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.