textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1122 AM CST MON NOV 2 2026

- Mid Week Focus: Keep an eye on Tuesday evening into Wednesday as rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up. The severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could lead to some localized flooding.

- Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week. A passing front will drop our temperatures, leaving us with lows in the 40s and maybe a few upper 30s for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1122 AM CST MON NOV 2 2026

The KBMX radar picked up on a few patches of light rain/drizzle making their way across Central Alabama earlier this morning. This checks out based on the 12Z KBMX soundings which reveals a nearly fully saturated lower layer of the atmosphere. Otherwise for today, weak upper level ridging will briefly work into the region, keeping us generally rain-free today.

Chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast Tuesday evening as moisture pools ahead of our next system. A stout upper level trough will lift across the Plains towards the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, an associated surface low will kick a cold front our way by mid week. Look for breezy conditions ahead of this front with gusts from 20-30 MPH likely. A line of showers and storms ahead of this front will head our way Tuesday evening. Latest guidance suggests this activity will be losing steam by the time it arrives across Central Alabama. While instability will be limited, roughly 30 knots of shear would support a couple of isolated thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. With that said, guidance is hinting at a corridor of higher instability creeping into our southwestern counties so we will need to keep an eye out down there for some stronger storms.

While the hydro threat appears to be waning, there remains a low chance for this system to turn into a flooding event for northwest portions of Central Alabama. As the line of showers and storms pulls away from its support, it will slow down as it moves across the Southeast. A healthy plume of PWATs and a developing ~40 knot H85 LLJ will help support periods of heavy rainfall. Latest probabilities suggest a 50% chance of seeing at least 2" and a 20% of seeing at least 3" of rain across our northwestern counties overnight Tuesday through Wednesday. Activity will gradually come to an end Wednesday evening with some wrap around showers possible on Thursday.

Our pattern remains active as we head through the late stages of the week. A series of upper troughs and cold fronts will work through the region over the weekend. Moisture will be limited so not expected too much in the way of precip. For now, we will carry low (10-15%) PoPs. These fronts will bring a refreshing shot of cooler air to the region with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST MON NOV 2 2026

VFR conditions have returned to all terminals. MVFR ceilings look to begin to return by 09-10Z then will linger through the remainder of this TAF cycle. Easterly winds will be breezy at times this afternoon with occasional gusts to 15-20 knots. After weakening to around 8-10 knots overnight, winds will pick up once again towards the late morning hours Tuesday.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. We will remain dry through Tuesday morning. Rain returns to the forecast Tuesday afternoon. Easterly winds will gust near 20 MPH at times, generally during the afternoon hours, through mid week. Drier conditions return late this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 57 78 63 / 0 0 0 60 Anniston 77 60 77 64 / 0 0 0 50 Birmingham 77 61 77 64 / 0 0 10 60 Tuscaloosa 79 63 79 64 / 0 0 10 80 Calera 77 62 77 65 / 0 0 10 60 Auburn 76 62 77 65 / 0 0 10 40 Montgomery 80 63 81 66 / 0 0 20 60 Troy 78 61 79 64 / 0 0 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.