textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 543 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026

- Thunderstorms: Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances expected through Monday. A few storms may be severe across the north Sunday afternoon, with damaging winds the main concern.

- Heat: Minor/moderate heat risk Sunday, transitioning to moderate/major heat risk for Monday through Wednesday with heat indices reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026

The synoptic pattern through the coming week is defined by an upper-level ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough lifting out of the Northeast, which will drive active weather across the region. On Sunday, an approaching cold front will encounter a highly unstable air mass, with dewpoints in the low 70s and MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms. The most favorable conditions for isolated damaging wind gusts will exist as storm clusters develop and push southward from Tennessee into northern Alabama and Georgia.

Adding complexity to the forecast is a broad, disorganized tropical disturbance (AL91) in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which remains a primary source of uncertainty. While model guidance remains split, the leading scenario suggests the system will linger south of the area and remain in the Gulf, maintaining a southerly flow that will enhance moisture, particularly across southeastern counties through early next week.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the focus shifts to a period of heat, with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 90s and heat indices peaking near 105 degrees. This period of heat will be accompanied by daily afternoon convection, fueled by monsoonal moisture. Relief is expected by Thursday as a cold front moves through the state, introducing drier and cooler air. The broader convective pattern will remain unsettled through the end of the week. Expect localized adjustments to temperature and precipitation forecasts as models continue to resolve the interaction between the Gulf disturbance and the mid-level flow.

16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions may be interrupted by scattered afternoon thunderstorms, prompting an inclusion of PROB30 TSRA for all sites from 18Z to 00Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

87/Grantham

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central AL. Increasing tropical moisture associated with a broad disturbance in the Eastern Gulf is expected across the area over the weekend, which will increase rain chances each afternoon, especially for the eastern half of Central AL. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 73 93 74 / 60 40 60 20 Anniston 91 73 92 74 / 60 40 50 20 Birmingham 93 75 94 76 / 60 40 30 20 Tuscaloosa 94 75 95 76 / 50 30 30 20 Calera 94 74 96 75 / 60 40 30 20 Auburn 90 74 91 75 / 60 30 30 20 Montgomery 92 74 94 75 / 70 40 30 20 Troy 90 72 92 73 / 70 30 40 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.