textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1056 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026

- Medium to high chances of dense fog advecting into the southern portions of the area overnight in Tuesday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM.

- Low to medium (30-60%) chances for showers into Wednesday.

- Medium to high (60-80%) rain chances will be possible over the weekend. There is a low probability at this time for thunderstorms, at least for the southern half of the area.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1050 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026

As the moisture continues to pool into the area with the southerly flow, we will see some low clouds and fog advect into the area overnight. This cloud cover will persist through at least 10 AM, with the most likely areas to see the lowest clouds and visibility in the south. A Dense Fog has been issued for the south after 3 AM. Visibilities will drop to a quarter of a mile of less so use caution while driving. With the southerly flow again expected high temperatures on Tuesday will once again reach the upper 60s to mid 70. Again went a few degrees above our blended guidance to account for this. The one caveat will be the cloud cover in the south. If it persists a little longer than 10 AM then the temperatures may only be around 70 versus 75.

Rain showers will move into the area after 9 PM in the north and push into the Birmingham metro just before sunrise. Showers are expected to continue to move south through the day, but will most likely begin to dissipate as the activity slides south. This is due the lack of push behind the front, therefore the front will stall out over the southern portion or just south of Central Alabama Wednesday night as the main dynamics lift away from the region.

On Friday, the left over boundary will lift northward as an effective warm front and help generate some showers by late Friday afternoon into Friday night. By Saturday morning the warm front will be across the northern third of the area and continue to slide north during the day. The main surface low on Saturday will be in Oklahoma and slide east into Arkansas. The large areas of high pressure over the east will stall its progression eastward for a bit, while the upper low may split over Arkansas. If this occurs, ensembles suggest that one low will slide northeast and east of the area, while a cut-off low and subsequent surface low will slide across our southern portions if not southeast of the area. Whereas a further north low would certainly provide the area with stronger storms early Sunday morning into the afternoon. So while some strength and placement concerns continue with the models, they do agree on a beneficial rain Saturday night into Sunday afternoon for much of the area. We will nee to continue to keep watching the fine details of the system as we get closer in regards to severe potential.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Low level moisture will increase overnight leading to MVFR ceilings by 09-10Z. Brief IFR conditions are likely at MGM/AUO between 11-13Z. VFR conditions return by mid morning. Another round of low level stratus appears likely just beyond this TAF window. Otherwise, southwest winds will increase Tuesday afternoon with gusts from 15-20 knots likely at times.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing moisture advection expected through the middle part of the week as southerly to southwesterly flow continues across the region. MinRHs should rise into the 50-70% range over the next couple of days. Rain chances increase tonight into Wednesday as a slow moving and weak frontal boundary pushes southward into Central AL. This will lead to the southwesterly winds becoming more westerly then northerly Wednesday into Thursday. The boundary should stall in our southern areas or just to our south towards the end of the week, with another batch of rain and perhaps storms over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 46 74 53 64 / 0 0 70 60 Anniston 48 74 54 65 / 0 0 60 60 Birmingham 50 73 56 65 / 0 0 60 50 Tuscaloosa 49 75 55 68 / 0 0 50 30 Calera 48 73 54 68 / 0 0 60 40 Auburn 48 73 56 70 / 0 0 40 30 Montgomery 48 76 58 74 / 0 0 30 30 Troy 49 76 58 75 / 0 0 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Greene-Hale- Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Russell-Sumter.