textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 119 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with localized higher amounts possible through Saturday.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather today as the cold front works south into the area. The main threat will be damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026

Regional radar shows the remnant low of Arthur centered just north of Atlanta. To our north, surface obs indicate an approaching cold front is extending southwest from a low over Quebec through the Appalachians and into the Ozarks. We've been spared from much of the higher rainfall totals and severe weather yesterday evening, and the primary zone of forcing is now pushing off to our east, but significant moisture content remains in place across the region. Other than an occasional shower or storm in the Montgomery area, a general decrease in activity is expected for Central AL through the predawn hours. As the frontal boundary begins to move into the area this morning, this feature will serve as the primary lifting mechanism to support additional showers and storms today. Coverage is likely to be highest across the southern half of the forecast area, and there are low chances for a few stronger storms to produce damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Soils remain very saturated, and the Flood Watch will remain in effect for most of the area through at least the end of the day as heavier downpours may easily result in areal or flash flooding, especially in urban areas. The frontal boundary is forecast to remain stalled along the Gulf Coast region this weekend, so rain chances have trended upward, and the Flood Watch may need to be extended through at least Saturday with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in the forecast for areas generally along and south of I-20.

A west to northwest flow pattern sets up next week, with elongated ridging over Mexico and the Four Corners, while a series of longwave troughs rotate across the Upper Plains and Great Lakes regions. Consequently, rain chances continue through at least the middle of the week, particularly on Tuesday as another front moves into the area. The finer details remain uncertain at this time, but we will need to keep an eye on potential MCS activity as well given the synoptic orientation.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026

A messy aviation forecast is in store through the overnight hours across Central Alabama with lingering showers and IFR to LIFR ceilings. Best coverage of SHRA will be across the southern TAF sites at MGM and AUO over the next six hours, followed by a reduction in ceilings to IFR category. Meanwhile across the northern terminals, some -RA or DZ will mix into the obs at times, but primarily IFR to LIFR ceilings will be the main hazard through the overnight hours. Observations should see a very slow rise in ceilings between 13z and 15z, with a forecast of VFR ceilings after 18z for most terminals. With continued TSRA chances remaining in the forecast, PROB30s were added through the end of the TAF period for all sites. Following the departure of the remnants of Arthur, winds will diminish overnight and become light and variable through much of the day on Friday outside of gusts that may occur within TSRA development.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 86 65 85 68 / 30 10 20 10 Anniston 86 67 85 69 / 40 20 20 10 Birmingham 86 69 85 70 / 40 20 40 20 Tuscaloosa 87 70 85 71 / 60 30 70 20 Calera 89 69 87 70 / 50 30 60 20 Auburn 84 71 84 70 / 40 30 50 20 Montgomery 84 71 84 70 / 70 40 80 20 Troy 84 71 84 70 / 90 40 80 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.