textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026

- Rain chances increasing Thursday into Friday morning. Low chances for severe weather and flooding concerns.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1109 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning paints a fairly active picture across the country. An upper trough can be seen moving from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is beginning to expand across the southwestern US. To the north of the ridge, a shortwave can be seen cutting into the Northern Plains. Locally, moisture is beginning to increase as a moist southwesterly low level flow kicks in. PWATs are up to 0.6" on the 12Z KBMX sounding. They should top out around 1.25" tomorrow as moisture continues to pool ahead of an approaching cold front.

Rain chances will begin to increase tonight across our northern areas as the aforementioned front nears. Medium to high chances for showers spread across the region on Thursday as the front enters the CWA, eventually slowing down and stalling late in the day. We will see low chances for thunderstorms develop Thursday afternoon into Friday as a shortwave digs south while slightly deepening across the region. A few strong to potentially severe storms can't be ruled out during this time period. While CAPE values will increase into the 500-700 J/kg range, forcing will be limited. However, bulk shear around 50 knots would support a few isolated stronger storms. We will also need to keep an eye on any potential hydro concerns. The combination of a fairly deep warm cloud depth and an established low level moisture convergence axis could lead to isolated flooding concerns. Trends will be monitored regarding the hydro threat. Rainfall amounts look to generally range from 1-2" with low chances for amounts over 2". The latest 12Z HREF hints at a few pockets of 2+" where moisture convergence is maximized.

Rain chances gradually come to an end through the day Friday as the shortwave pulls off to the east and the surface boundary nudges south while washing out. We remain dry through the weekend as weak ridging attempts to become reestablished. Rain chances return early next week as our next system approaches the region.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. South-southwest winds are beginning to increase with gusts around 20 knots likely to continue through early this evening. Introduced a mention of VCSH for our northern terminals shortly before sunrise as our next front nears the region. VCSH makes it to AUO/MGM by 12Z. MVFR ceilings and -RA are likely for BHM/EET/TCL by mid morning. There is a low chance for IFR ceilings towards the end of this TAF window for BHM/EET. AUO is likely to see MVFR ceilings after sunrise with MGM hanging onto VFR through the end of this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will rebound today, as winds begin to shift to the south/southwest. Rain chances will begin to increase tonight with medium to high chances persisting through Friday afternoon. 1-2 inches of rainfall looks likely for most of the area, with some pockets of 2+ inches with the heavier convection. A front will move through by the weekend, allowing min RH values to drop back into the 30-40% range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 63 51 66 50 / 10 50 80 60 Anniston 65 53 68 51 / 0 40 80 70 Birmingham 65 55 67 53 / 0 40 70 70 Tuscaloosa 70 57 72 53 / 0 40 70 70 Calera 70 54 70 52 / 0 40 80 80 Auburn 68 56 69 57 / 0 20 70 90 Montgomery 72 57 73 57 / 0 20 60 90 Troy 72 55 74 57 / 0 20 60 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.