textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026

- Heat: Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will continue through the next week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across northwestern portions of Central Alabama this evening through early Sunday morning. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough progressing across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge builds in across the west. Drier air is beginning to work into the region with PWATs down to around 1.2" per the latest GOES TPW. This dry air combined with increasing subsidence will help promote mostly dry conditions through the weekend. With that said, several CAMs bring a line of convection into the state during the evening hours as a trailing shortwave rotates along the western periphery of the trough axis. Greatest chances will be across our northwestern counties, generally after 7 PM through early Sunday morning. Primary threats with this activity will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. As a result, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms.

After a brief lull in activity on Sunday, an active pattern returns next week as several shortwaves rotate between a ridge parked out to our west and a trough to our northeast. A stalled boundary along the Gulf coast will gradually lift north through the week, leading to increasing moisture across the southeast. By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work week.

High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper 80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a low to moderate heat risk for most through the next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through this TAF cycle. Based on the latest CAMs, opted to include a PROB30 mention for TSRA from 03-07Z for the northern terminals. At this time, confidence is low as to just how much, if any, activity we see. Winds will remain light, generally around 5-7 knots through this TAF cycle. Fog probabilities appear to be low for Sunday morning as drier air moves into the region.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations this weekend. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period. Moisture gradually begins to return early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 92 67 91 / 10 0 10 10 Anniston 70 91 67 89 / 10 0 10 20 Birmingham 73 93 71 90 / 10 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 73 96 72 91 / 10 10 20 30 Calera 72 94 71 90 / 10 10 10 30 Auburn 72 92 71 88 / 0 10 10 30 Montgomery 73 97 73 93 / 0 10 10 40 Troy 70 97 71 92 / 0 20 10 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.