textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026

- Very little rain is expected through the middle of the workweek.

- Rain chances should increase by Wednesday afternoon, and remain in the forecast into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026

Weak upper-level ridging will remain the "dominant" feature to start the new workweek here. Because of this, afternoon highs will continue to climb into the low to mid-80s by Tuesday afternoon. There are now some scattered rain chances in the forecast for Monday afternoon, as the limited Gulf moisture flowing into the region is getting compressed by a CAD wedge to our east. Even if locations are able to see some rain, very limited rainfall is expected.

The upper-level pattern will begin to break down by Wednesday, as the ridge slides off to the east, and a trough begins to take shape to our west. This will put us in SW flow aloft, allowing for even more Gulf moisture to stream into the region. Now, this is where the forecast starts to get tricky. By Thursday, the ridge to the east looks to strengthen, greatly slowing the progression of this trough. While rain chances will remain in the forecast into the weekend, they will also be mostly scattered in nature, as the trough and cold front stay sandwiched to the west. This trough should finally get the secondary push it needs to work into the region sometime over the weekend, with hopefully far more organized rain chances following it then.

/44/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026

Low-level isentropic lift continues with moist southerly flow being lifted over a wedge of high pressure at the surface. Ceiling forecast remains lower confidence, and will continue to favor the HREF probabilities and NAM soundings over the LAMP guidance based on verification over the past 18 hours. Spotty MVFR currently near EET should be temporary, but expect more MVFR cigs to develop towards daybreak at BHM/EET/TCL. MVFR probabilities are lower at MGM where only a TEMPO was mentioned, and currently appear too low to mention at AUO. VFR should return by midday, with low cloud re-development Monday night expected to be beyond the current TAF cycle. Isolated light showers will also be present at times, but probabilities/impacts are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

Despite a rebound in afternoon MinRH values, fuels will remain critically dry, with little to no rain expected through the middle of the week. Because of this, fire weather concerns will remain elevated. Thankfully, rain chances will slowly increase by the middle of the new workweek, and linger into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 57 82 59 / 20 10 20 10 Anniston 77 58 82 59 / 20 10 20 10 Birmingham 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 30 10 Tuscaloosa 81 60 83 62 / 20 10 30 10 Calera 80 59 83 60 / 20 10 30 10 Auburn 78 59 82 61 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 81 59 85 60 / 10 10 40 10 Troy 81 58 84 58 / 10 10 40 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.