textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026

- There is a medium to high chance for frost development Friday morning, as temperatures drop into the mid 30s for locations in North-Central AL.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe storms Sunday night into Monday morning. - There is a medium to high chances for freezing temperatures Tuesday morning for much of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1142 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026

Cooler conditions are settling into Central AL this afternoon with the strong cold air advection associated with the departing weather system to our east. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening, becoming mostly calm overnight into Friday morning. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s for most of Central AL. This will support the development of frost for many locations in Central AL, which will impact any sensitive plants and vegetation.

Temperatures should moderate Friday afternoon through Sunday as the surface high shifts to our east, allowing at least some weak southerly flow across the area.

A trough is expected to deepen to our west Sunday afternoon and evening with a low developing and tracking through the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. This system will push a very strong cold front through Central AL fairly quickly overnight Sunday into Monday leading to widespread rain and thunderstorms. There's quite a bit of uncertainty on how much destabilization will occur ahead of this system, but the overall dynamics are strong with the upper trough becoming more neutral and then negatively tilted with time. This should support strong to severe storms Sunday night into Monday that will need to be monitored.

Behind this quick-moving system, temperatures are expected to drop substantially with high temperatures on Monday struggling to get out of the 50s for much of the area. Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning low temperatures are expected to be well below freezing with some sites across the north dropping into the low 20s Tuesday morning.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions expected the rest of today and through Saturday with Min RHs dropping into the low 30% range Friday. Winds remain gusty through this afternoon, but should become calm and shift more southerly by Friday and Saturday. Increasing moisture is expected Sunday ahead of another strong cold front that will move through Sunday night into Monday morning. Much colder and drier conditions expected Monday through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 33 67 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 35 68 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 38 67 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 37 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 37 70 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 40 69 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 37 70 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 39 71 44 78 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton- Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson- Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.