textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026

- Severe Weather: A Level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains across Central Alabama through tonight. The main threats are localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

- Cooler, Drier Early Fall Pattern: Rain chances gradually taper off on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. A noticeably cooler and drier air mass settles across Central AL for Thursday through the weekend, bringing daytime highs in the lower-to-middle 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026

A weakening frontal boundary/convergence zone will be in place across Central AL today, leading to at least some focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. This is generally the impetus for the Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe storms today. Overall coverage of thunderstorms will be low with only a 20-30% chance across the area, but given the dry air aloft and the warm/humid surface, any of the storms may produce damaging wind gusts.

We start to see a deepening trough to our east Wednesday through the weekend with ridging building to our west. This will lead to more northeasterly to easterly flow for Central AL for the second half of the week leading to cooler and drier weather through the weekend. Compared to the past few weeks of above normal temperatures, this will be a welcome start to the Fall season with highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the area (a few spots in the upper 70s in the far eastern portions of Central AL) and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. This pattern continues through at least Monday with limited to no chance for rain Thursday through Monday.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon, albeit not with as much coverage as yesterday. I have included prob30 groups for 21-24z for all sites except TCL as they may be a little further west than most of the thunderstorm activity. As the main upper trough shifts to our east, a backdoor front is expected to push westward out of GA. This forcing might lead to lower CIGs and increased rain in the eastern half of Central AL late in the period (generally after 12z). I have included MVFR CIGs in for AUO to account for this, but I think MGM, EET, TCL, and BHM should remain just west of the lower CIGs and stay VFR through the period.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, then drier weather works into the region Wednesday through the weekend. MinRHs should remain in the 40-60% range through the end of the week, but the weekend is trending drier with MinRHs approaching critical values Saturday and Sunday. Winds should remain generally light and out of the east after today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 67 89 64 82 / 10 40 40 10 Anniston 68 88 66 80 / 10 40 40 10 Birmingham 70 91 68 83 / 10 20 20 10 Tuscaloosa 70 94 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 Calera 69 92 68 84 / 10 20 20 10 Auburn 70 88 67 80 / 10 20 30 10 Montgomery 71 92 70 85 / 10 10 30 10 Troy 70 92 68 85 / 10 10 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.