textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1255 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

- There are low chances for a brief rain/snow mix or light snow across our far southeastern counties early Sunday morning. Minor accumulation of less than two tenths of an inch is forecast for portions of Barbour, Russell, Bullock and Pike counties. - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1255 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

A secondary upper low and associated longwave trough will move across the ERN half of Conus through tonight/early Sunday with an active upper pattern as a colder airmass moves into place across AL. Guidance has come into agreement on a weak gulf low to move across the NE Gulf this evening into FL Sun. While we are expecting bands of rain to develop and move NE across the SE counties late today into tonight, most of the QPF should fall as a cold rain. Toward the midnight hour as drier air continues to work its way into the more of the area from the NW, we could see some brief change over to a RA/SN mix before the precip comes to an end as temps fall into the mid/lower 30s. There is a very small window in the far SE ~3-6 am where we could see a little accumulation (generally less than 0.2 inch) of snow. After 6am, small isolated pockets of -SN/or flurries may continue for an hour or two before everything exits ESE-WD out of C AL and as temperatures start to rise above freezing where any snow could have potentially fallen. So our window is very small for any isolated impacts. Will forgo a winter weather advisory ATTM, but will continue to monitor the latest hires/global guidance as it updates. After early Sun, look for a cold/dry/below normal temp forecast for the first half of next week. Rain chances return Wed night into Thu with our next system.

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Previous discussion: (Through Friday) Issued at 1249 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

The cold front and a corridor of light rainfall is currently progressing through the Birmingham metro. The rain will begin to shift east of the forecast area by early to mid morning. Conditions will be dry for most of the day with some lingering cloud cover and a light northwest wind. A secondary mid to upper- level low will rotate across the Upper Midwest today which will produce additional forcing and rainfall across the Gulf Coast region this evening. Latest model guidance, both global and short term, continues to suggest the bulk of redevelopment will occur to our south and east in the form of rain Saturday night into Sunday while a drier airmass situates over Central Alabama. Our far southeastern counties may catch a bit of that rain this evening, followed by a brief transition to a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning once temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s near and south of Interstate 85. Fortunately, the short duration is expected to limit the scope of impacts and overall snow accumulation. We're currently forecasting minor amounts of one tenth of an inch or less for a very small portion of Barbour and Russell counties, and probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25" (Winter Weather Advisory criteria) continues to decrease spatially, now at about 10-20% for those two counties. Given the temperature forecast with only a few hours in the 30-32 degree range before temps rise back above freezing, I can't see much, if any, impacts occurring from this. Also, a few hi-resolution models suggest any snow and accumulation will remain to our east in Georgia, so we still note a touch of model discontinuity as well. There are no plans to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time, but will reassess through the day as we continue to review more hi-res data.

A west to northwest flow pattern will set up from Monday through Wednesday which will keep our forecast dry with below-average temperatures. Tuesday morning will be the coldest with lows ranging from the teens north to mid 20s south. Broad troughing over the Central CONUS and a slight enhancement to the sub-tropical jet over Mexico will support a slight warming trend and increasing rain chances across the Lower MS River Valley by Thursday and the end of the week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

VFR conditions are noted across all TAF sites ATTM. Brief periods of -RA may be noted this evening into the overnight at MGM/AUO. Before the activity ends this activity may be cold enough to briefly switch over to -SN before ending at MGM/AUO. Only confident enough to mention in AUO TAF briefly 8-9z. Some MVFR cigs may occur with the overnight precip. Otherwise, NW-NNW winds 5-9kt will be noted behind the front.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will range from 40-45% in the west to 50-55% in the east today. After some light precipitation possible through tonight for portions of the southeast counties, expect northwesterly flow to persist through the weekend with several days of dry and cool daytime conditions. RH values will generally remain above critical thresholds except for Tuesday where a surge of dry air could result in RHs mixing down into the 20-25% range across much of Central Alabama.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 23 41 22 45 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 25 41 22 46 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 26 40 25 45 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 24 42 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 24 43 24 49 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 30 42 26 49 / 50 20 0 0 Montgomery 30 44 25 52 / 40 10 0 0 Troy 30 44 25 52 / 60 20 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.