textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to elevated heat risk across central Alabama through much of the upcoming week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 am Monday through 9 pm Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026

The big story over the coming weeks is obviously the heat. The eastern third of the country will remain under a big upper level ridge through the period, with the center of the upper ridge gradually drifting from the lower Mississippi Valley early in the week, to the Ohio Valley mid-week, to the mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the week.

We'll initially start the week off quite hot and humid with center of the ridge in close proximity. Afternoon heat indices Monday and Tuesday are forecast to climb above 100 degrees just about everywhere, and close to or above 105 degrees in many areas as well. We have issued a Heat Advisory to cover the elevated heat risk during this period. We'll also note that overnight temperatures will only "cool" into the mid to upper 70s, which means there is decreased opportunity for temperatures in non-air- conditioned buildings to recover from the day's heat.

As the upper ridge axis migrates to the north and northeast, several easterly waves are forecast to round the base of the high. This will in turn allow POPs to return to our forecast. Current POPs are in the 20 percent or less range, but I wouldn't be surprised if POPs eventually inch back up to more climo-like values (typically in the 30-40 percent range). Finally, data does show that there is a subtle, but discernible, peak in severe thunderstorm reports in our area in early to mid July, so we will need to keep the potential for microbursts on our minds as well.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026

No big surprises forecast in the 18Z TAF cycle for central Alabama. Largely VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours, with either scattered CU or mid-level clouds the predominant feature. Low level moisture profile forecasts indicate a possibility for a brief period of MVFR ceilings around the daybreak hours on Monday. This should be pretty transient at any location that it occurs, and will be handled with a TEMPO group.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected through Monday. Slightly better chances for diurnal convection are expected by Tuesday into next week. Outside of isolated pockets of rain, the primary story through next week will be the heat and humidity, with heat indices approaching and exceeding 100 degrees. Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity will remain well above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 30 Anniston 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 40 Birmingham 75 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 30 Tuscaloosa 75 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 20 Calera 74 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 30 Auburn 74 95 77 93 / 0 0 10 50 Montgomery 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 50 Troy 74 95 76 94 / 0 0 10 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.