textproduct: NWS Birmingham
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 122 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- Critically dry fuels, strong winds, and low minimum relative humidity behind the front will keep fire weather conditions elevated through much of the upcoming week.
- Next rain chances will be late Friday into Saturday.
DISCUSSION
(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 122 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
Cold and dry advection has dried out the lower levels, and satellite imagery shows that the mid/high level cloud deck will also soon clear out of central Alabama. That will leave mostly clear and chilly conditions across the area overnight.
Latest computer model runs show the upper level flow transitioning to a more zonal configuration early in the upcoming week, as this weekend's upper low exits to the east. This will allow temperatures to moderate to near/slightly above seasonal normals. A lack of synoptic scale lift (the storm track stays well to our north) and relative lack of low level moisture means another several day period of dry weather is on tap. It is not until Friday, when a subtle upper level shortwave trough moves through, that the next chance of showers and storms comes back into the forecast.
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AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
Deck of mid level (around FL150) clouds should move out of central Alabama between 1800 and 2100 UTC. That will leave clear skies and essentially a wind forecast for the remainder of this TAF forecast cycle. Winds should become less gusty late this afternoon, and then transition to calm/light after 0100 UTC.
NOTE: Spring seasonal KASN TAF is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.
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FIRE WEATHER
Afternoon humidity levels will be close to critical values over the next several days, as temperatures moderate and dewpoints remain in the 30s and 30s. Fortunately, after this afternoon winds are expected to become and then remain less gusty through the rest of the week. Next chance for rain will not come until Friday at the soonest.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 39 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 42 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 46 77 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 44 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 44 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 47 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 44 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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