textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1023 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

- Summertime thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening this week. A few of these storms may produce localized gusty winds at times.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

A broad upper trough is expected to move through the Great Lakes region on Monday, with a weak upper low becoming cut-off over the Mid-MS Valley Monday night into Tuesday. This initial trough will provide the lift for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Coverage will be higher across the northern half of Central AL due to proximity of the trough and will generally be higher coverage than typical summertime afternoons.

The cut-off low slowly meanders across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday through Thursday, but most of the forcing from that low generally stays to our north as broad ridging slides into the Southeastern CONUS in the lower levels, helping to suppress overall shower/thunderstorm activity across Central AL. Temperatures should run fairly close to normal for this time of year and not reach any concerns for increased heat messaging. Diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely run slightly below normal in coverage due to the presence of the ridge. Late in the week, guidance suggests a shortwave might push the west to east oriented trough southward by Friday through Sunday, which could lead to increased thunderstorm chances, but it's far too soon to nail down specifics on coverage at this time.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026

Due to abundant moisture in place and light to calm winds overnight, low clouds are expected to develop across much of the region generally after 10z and persisting through 13-15z. Most sites are expected to drop to MVFR, though some previous guidance had hinted at IFR for some of the sites that saw the heaviest rainfall today. After this clears through mixing tomorrow morning, the remainder of the period should be VFR aside from any temporary impacts due to summertime thunderstorms from 20z-00z tomorrow.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Typical diurnal thunderstorm activity is expected with good overnight RH recovery each night. Generally light winds are expected during the day becoming mostly calm overnight aside from any thunderstorm-related winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 89 72 91 / 30 60 20 20 Anniston 72 89 72 90 / 30 60 20 10 Birmingham 74 90 73 92 / 40 50 30 20 Tuscaloosa 74 90 74 92 / 30 40 20 30 Calera 73 93 73 94 / 40 40 30 20 Auburn 73 89 73 91 / 40 50 20 10 Montgomery 74 91 74 93 / 40 30 20 20 Troy 73 90 73 92 / 50 30 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.