textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 521 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2026

- Mid-Week Rain Chance: A system will bring a chance for a few light rain showers Wednesday into the pre-dawn hours Thursday.

- Late-Week Cold Front & Freeze Risk: A strong cold front on Thursday will usher in gusty winds and much colder air, leading to a widespread frost and freeze heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 150 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2026

This afternoon at the surface, ridging is present over the Gulf Coast with weak flow across Alabama. In the upper levels, we have SW flow into C AL out of a shortwave currently over TX. This is resulting in some scattered mid to upper clouds. However, the lower levels are too dry for any precipitation across our area. This will change on Wed. The latest guidance weakens the shortwave as it moves toward AL, but there is still a small chance of a light shower during the day ahead of the main surface front. As the front gets closer Wed night, chances of rain occurrence will increase. However, heavy rain and thunderstorms are not anticipated, and QPF amounts will be low overall. Behind the front, northwest winds will increase with a much colder airmass moving S/SEWD behind it. A 1024 to 1028mb ridge pushes SWD out of Central Canada Thu into the Plains and Midwest. With this intrusion of colder air, a medium chance of frost is expected for early Fri morning. Even colder air is expected for Sat/Sun morning with a medium chance of freezing temperatures and a high probability of widespread frost. Temperatures should begin to moderate a little for Mon/Tue as the surface ridge center shifts EWD across E Conus, but frost will still remain a medium probability for those mornings.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the west from 7-9 knots through the late morning hours. We continue with low confidence in light rain coverage during the late morning and afternoon hours on Wednesday.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

RH values drop into the 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon. However, light winds will help negate fire weather concerns. Moisture increases on Wednesday ahead of a cold front with a few light rain showers at times Wednesday afternoon through the pre- dawn hours Thursday morning. We will need to keep an eye on Thursday for increased fire weather concerns as northwesterly winds increase in the wake of the front. Drier air and cooler temps return this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 43 73 50 65 / 0 20 60 0 Anniston 45 72 51 66 / 0 20 50 0 Birmingham 47 72 50 64 / 0 20 40 0 Tuscaloosa 45 74 50 67 / 0 20 30 0 Calera 47 71 51 65 / 0 20 30 0 Auburn 49 72 54 68 / 0 20 20 0 Montgomery 48 73 55 71 / 0 20 20 0 Troy 48 72 54 70 / 0 20 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.