textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

- There is a medium to high chance for severe weather tonight into Monday morning. There's increasing concern for widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

- Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm system will result in winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected this afternoon and tonight. - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 112 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

BLUF: Widespread severe weather continues to look likely for most of the region Sunday Night, with damaging winds and tornadoes being the main threats.

At the time of this discussion, the SPC has maintained the Enhanced and Slight Risk (Level 2-3/5) for our entire area for Sunday night, into Monday morning. Not much has really changed in the overall thinking, as an organized line of thunderstorms will begin working into the region between 8-10 PM Sunday. This line of storms will be highly forced, and moving at a fast rate of speed, likely enhancing the damaging wind threat across the region. During this initial time, the tornado threat would likely be limited to embedded circulations along the main line. However, the tornado threat has somewhat evolved in our SE, which now is an entirely additional threat on it's own.

For about 24 hours now, high-res guidance has been pretty consistent in highlighting a larger area of increased instability values along and south of the I-85 corridor. The environment here also remains relatively untapped from the main trough, so wind profiles remain more curved, as opposed to straightening out. In the event storms are able to form ahead of the main line, they would have a very potent environment, one that is far more balanced than ones to the NW. These storms would be supercellular, apart from the main line, in an environment supportive of a strong tornado. Thus, the SPC has introduced this area into a smaller, standalone Enhanced risk, highlighting this localized tornado potential. Now, with all of that being said, this area is incredibly "Low floor, high ceiling," as there are plenty of question marks regarding a CAP, as well as storms getting quickly undercut by the main line. However, if a storm or two were able to get going in this environment and remain ahead of the line, they would absolutely be capable of producing a long-lived or strong tornado.

As these storms exit the region by daybreak, winds behind the cold front will be quite strong, working in that deep cold air advection. May even see some of the linger rain showers mix in or even transition to snow during the morning hours on Monday. Impacts are not expected, due to the much warmer surface temperatures that have been in place over the last few weeks. Lows on both Monday night and Tuesday night appear to be below freezing. Given how our region has recently entered into its growing season, we have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Warning for Monday night, with another one potentially being needed Tuesday night as well. From here, temperatures are likely to stabilize towards the middle of the workweek, before climbing back to a more seasonable feel by next weekend. /44/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

VFR conditions for the 15 to 18 hours through 00z. Showers and storms move in after 00z along with MVFR conditions for the north. Just MVFR clouds will impact AUO and MGM by 6z. Showers and storms move in after 06z. Strong southerly winds will be possible as well after 18z with gusts up to 30 kts.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will climb into the upper-40 and low-50% range today ahead of the cold front, with rain chances increasing into the overnight hours. However, MinRH values will quickly drop by Tuesday, as cool, dry air blasts into the region. MinRH values could drop into the low-20% range for some locations, with sustained winds near 10 MPH at times. MinRH values will slightly rebound the next two days, but should generally remain below 30% through the middle of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 77 39 43 24 / 0 90 30 0 Anniston 78 42 44 24 / 0 90 40 0 Birmingham 78 39 44 27 / 10 100 30 0 Tuscaloosa 80 40 46 25 / 0 100 20 0 Calera 80 41 46 25 / 10 90 30 0 Auburn 78 48 49 29 / 0 90 60 0 Montgomery 80 46 48 27 / 0 90 40 0 Troy 80 49 50 28 / 0 80 50 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.