textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026

- Heat: Major HeatRisk is expected to persist through the middle of the workweek. Heat indices are forecast between 103 to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for portions of central Alabama on Tuesday.

- Thunderstorms: Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Thursday, especially south of I-20. More organized rain chances will increase closer to the weekend, as a series of disturbances moves through the region.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026

The region currently sits on the eastern edge of a rather flat mid level ridge centered over the southern plains and the southwest US. A weak disturbance in the flow aloft migrates through the TN valley tonight which triggers TS activity along an accompanying boundary separating the oppressive heat and humidity from a slightly drier airmass to the north. The good news is there is enough of a push of the mid 60 dewpoints to allow the heat products to expire for areas along and northeast of a Chambers to Shelby to Lamar county line. South and west of that line, a heat advisory will again be in effect for Tuesday as dewpoints still sit in the mid 70s and max heat indices will range from 104 to 109 on Tuesday.

Likely to see something similar in place for Wednesday and Thursday as the drier air, albeit helpful to keep HI down for the northeastern portion of the CWA, slowly erodes and dewpoints creep back into the 70s areawide by Friday. In the upper levels, the mid level ridge begins to strengthen over the western US this weekend allowing for energy to carve south into the eastern periphery and put the region in the base of a trof between the break between the western ridge and the Bermuda ridge. Some guidance pointing to a stormy Friday as that feature evolves and sinks south, but, will need to see some more consistency in the guidance as we get closer. Regardless as a result of the trof position, drier air filters in area wide by Sunday.

01

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026

Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through 18/04z, with TCL, EET, and BHM maintaining PROB30 groups through then. Once thunderstorm activity diminishes, there is high confidence in VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will continue, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 45 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected the next several days. Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next five days, but will begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 75 94 68 97 / 40 0 0 0 Anniston 74 93 68 95 / 40 0 0 0 Birmingham 76 93 72 96 / 40 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 77 97 73 100 / 30 10 10 0 Calera 75 95 71 97 / 30 0 0 0 Auburn 76 92 72 93 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 77 99 73 99 / 20 10 20 0 Troy 75 97 73 97 / 20 20 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale- Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell- Sumter-Tuscaloosa.