textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026

- A Level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe weather is in place Sunday afternoon across southern portions of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary threats.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern counties of Central Alabama.

- Very cold air arrives late Sunday into early next week. A Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect Sunday night and Monday Night.

DISCUSSION

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1226 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026

Widespread moderate rainfall is finally working into the region, with the threat for wintry precipitation still possible in our northern zones through the early morning hours. However, that threat will quickly diminish past 10AM once temperatures begin to climb as the surface low pushes north. Because of this, I have brought back the Winter Weather Advisory expiration time to Noon on Sunday, and given the temperatures trends, may be able to cancel it earlier than that. With that being said, we're still expecting temperatures to plummet behind the cold front Sunday night, with flash freeze conditions possible given all the rain we'll receive today. Black ice may rapidly develop on roadways, creating hazardous driving conditions for the Monday morning commute. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for Sunday night, as lows will range between 5-20 degrees. Another Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect for Monday night, where lows are likely to drop to between 0-15 degrees area-wide.

Shifting south of I-20 for today, the SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2/5), but trimmed it farther south to match the main axis of instability. Here, it still looks like a narrow corridor of CAPE between 500-700 J/Kg will work north ahead of the cold front, with plenty of shear across the region due to the surface low pressure. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain the main threat, with most of this activity leaving the region by 3PM.

The rest of the forecast remains on the cold side, as a reinforcing trough clips the region by Wednesday, pushing the temperatures back down. Winter weather still looks possible next weekend given these temperatures, but just like I mentioned last night, that portion of the forecast heavily depends on the track of the low pressure. Because of that, I will likely remain status-quo in simply mentioning it, as long-range guidance remains quite split at this time.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions are currently widespread across the region due to ongoing rain. This rain will only get heavier through the morning, with quick drops in VIS possible with the heaviest activity. Rain will generally end past 25/22z, with clouds remaining low through the evening. However, conditions will slowly mix back into MVFR past 26/08z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Widespread rain is still expected through the weekend, with most locations seeing between 2-4 inches by Monday. Dry air will quickly work into the region by the new workweek, with MinRH values dropping back between 30-40%. Given the wet fuels, fire weather concerns will remain little to none through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 56 16 34 10 / 100 10 0 0 Anniston 59 19 35 13 / 100 10 0 0 Birmingham 59 19 33 13 / 100 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 57 18 35 14 / 100 0 0 0 Calera 61 19 37 13 / 100 10 0 0 Auburn 63 25 39 18 / 100 40 0 0 Montgomery 70 23 39 17 / 100 20 0 0 Troy 72 24 41 16 / 100 40 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following counties: Cherokee-Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Lowndes-Macon- Montgomery-Pike-Russell.