textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains in effect through Tuesday morning. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in effect for late tonight, and early Wednesday. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main threats.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats with any severe activity.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026

A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms is still expected to sneak into the region by the morning hours on Tuesday, with continued decaying as time goes on. From here, general showers and thunderstorms are expected through the early afternoon hours across the region, as the next threat for severe weather starts to materialize over the ArkLaTex. Additional storm development is expected here along the cold front during the late morning, with these storms sliding east with the cold front later in the afternoon. Currently, portions of the region remain highlighted in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), with damaging winds being the main threat with any severe storms. With that being said, there is a narrow window in the late afternoon where an isolated tornado is possible given singular storm modes, but confidence is low here. However, storms are expected to quickly grow into a large cluster, with the bulk of our threat coming from this as it works into the region.

During this time on Wednesday, the upper-level flow will slip into a more zonal pattern, slowing the cold front's progress through the region. Rain chances will slowly drop into Thursday, as this cold front continues towards the coast. Afternoon highs on Thursday will generally range in the low to upper-70s, before falling into the mid and upper-60s on Friday. Our next best chance for rain appears to be this weekend, when a deep trough starts to dig through the Great Lakes region, all the way down to south Texas. Given the stalled front to the south, this will be the perfect catalyst for additional widespread rain across the region. At the time of this discussion, this appears to be the best setup for a good soaking rainfall we've seen recently, with medium confidence (50%) in 1.5-2.0 inches of rain through late Saturday.

/44/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026

Rain is expected to move into the area generally after 10z as the outflow from storm activity to the north pushes southward into Central AL. There could be some thunderstorm activity with this, but I'm not overly confident in the timing to include in the TAFs. This will at least bring some lower CIGs (MVFR to IFR) into the region through roughly 14-17z before CIGs increase back to VFR through the afternoon. Later, another upper level shortwave swings through and will push another round of rain and thunderstorms through the area generally after 00z. I've included TSRA in the prob30 for the end of the period from 00z-06z for most TAF sites. The question on exact terminal impacts will depend on where the outflow from the morning activity sets up. If it can manage to push far enough south, there's some indications that the evening activity will stay along that boundary or south of it, limiting the TSRA impacts to the northern sites. However, other guidance suggests this boundary sets up right over the northern TAF sites, so they will have a better chance of having the thunderstorm activity in the evening.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances will increase the next two days, as more organized systems move into the region. Because of that, there's high confidence that MinRH values will generally remain above 50% through Wednesday. However, they will quickly drop right back into the upper-30 and low-40% range behind the cold front on Thursday. Despite the forecast rainfall across the area through midweek, fire weather concerns will remain elevated due to the persistent widespread drought conditions and critically dry fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 60 80 52 / 70 90 80 30 Anniston 80 62 80 54 / 60 90 70 40 Birmingham 82 64 81 57 / 70 90 80 40 Tuscaloosa 83 64 83 57 / 80 90 70 50 Calera 83 64 84 57 / 70 90 70 50 Auburn 82 66 84 62 / 50 80 40 60 Montgomery 86 66 87 62 / 50 70 40 60 Troy 86 64 87 62 / 30 60 30 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.