textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026

- Thunderstorms: Organized thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through Wednesday. A few of these storms may produce localized gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026

The closed low still finds itself in central Tennessee, with it still slowly tracking to the SE. By later this afternoon, the low should have meandered into north Georgia, where it will continue to sit for the next 24-36 hours or so. As we head into Tuesday night, this low is still projected to start shifting to the west, working right through central Alabama, as a ridge starts to build in over the East Coast. In turn, organized rain chances will remain in the forecast through Wednesday, as we remain under the influence of this closed low. By Thursday however, rain chances will shift towards the typical summertime diurnal convection that we're so used to seeing this time of the year.

As we head into the weekend, guidance starts to split regarding the trajectory of this ridge. A few long range members have the ridge establishing itself, allowing for afternoon highs to climb back into the low to mid-90s. Other members keep the scope of this ridge suppressed, as another deep trough begins to take shape over New England. This would allow for afternoon highs to remain slightly cooler, remaining in the upper-80s to low-90s. Unfortunately, these scenarios essentially boil down to "hot" and "still hot, just not as much." for us heading into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop through the morning and move through the state through the afternoon and evening. Have included only a VCSH at KMGM and KAUO through the morning due to proximity of showers. Otherwise, left a PROB30 in each TAF to account for uncertainty in timing and coverage of any activity that does develop and when any impacts would occur at each TAF site. Models are holding on to an ample amount of low level moisture and ceilings lowering to IFR at most sites overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will remain above critical thresholds through Wednesday, as the moist air mass will persist through the middle of the new workweek. Widespread rainfall will also remain in the forecast, as a weak system lingers over the region. Given the elevated MinRH and rainfall chances, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 85 69 84 69 / 80 60 90 30 Anniston 84 70 83 70 / 80 60 90 40 Birmingham 86 70 84 70 / 70 60 90 40 Tuscaloosa 86 71 84 71 / 70 60 90 40 Calera 87 70 85 70 / 80 60 90 40 Auburn 84 71 83 71 / 60 60 90 60 Montgomery 86 70 85 70 / 70 60 90 40 Troy 84 69 85 69 / 70 50 80 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.