textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026

- Rain will overspread Central Alabama through the course of this afternoon and tonight.

- There is a medium to high chance for seasonably warm temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1209 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery depicts a positively tilted trough slowly advancing across the Central Plains. A broad zone of scattered to numerous showers have developed over Mississippi and areas near and west of the Mississippi River along an approaching cold front. This activity is already beginning to enter our western counties and will continue to expand in coverage across the area this afternoon. The stable and cool airmass will prevent thunderstorm chances today with most areas expected to pick up about 0.5-0.75" of rain.

The trough will deepen overnight which will help to force the cold front through the area tomorrow. Rain will gradually end in our southeast by early afternoon and temperatures will actually decrease slowly during the day as northwesterly winds and cold air advection increase behind the front. Deep northwesterly flow will persist through the end of the week, but fortunately this airmass will not be as cold as the last few waves we've experienced, so cold weather products are not anticipated. However, Thursday will be chilly with highs in the 40s. A ridge axis will begin to build eastward on Friday, and we'll actually see slight warm air advection in the low- levels which will result in a mild airmass to close out the week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026

Aviation conditions will gradually deteriorate through the evening as a vast rain shield spreads across the region. MVFR cigs/vis will develop over the next few hours, becoming IFR late tonight. Rain is likely to continue through most of the night. Most terminals will begin to dry out by sunrise. AUO will see lingering -RA through mid morning. MVFR ceilings return by mid day. Winds will become variable around 5 knots overnight, eventually shifting to the northwest through the morning hours.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Rain will overspread Central Alabama through the course of this afternoon and tonight, persisting as late as ~mid morning Wednesday near/southeast of the 85 corridor. Amounts should average near one-half inch, locally higher in downpours. A drying northwest wind near 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph is forecast for Wednesday afternoon, though temperature/dew point spreads are not expected to be that wide which will keep MinRHs well above critical thresholds. Lower dew points move in for Thursday, pushing MinRHs into the 30s for a large chunk of Central Alabama during the afternoon alongside northwest winds from 5-10 mph. Fair weather is currently forecast for Friday and the weekend with MinRHs above critical thresholds, though slipping into the 30s for parts of Central Alabama, and west/northwest winds near 5-10 mph during the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 40 48 22 44 / 100 10 0 0 Anniston 42 50 23 44 / 100 20 0 0 Birmingham 42 47 25 44 / 100 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 39 48 25 46 / 100 0 0 0 Calera 41 49 24 46 / 100 20 0 0 Auburn 48 56 28 46 / 90 70 0 0 Montgomery 49 55 29 48 / 90 60 0 0 Troy 49 58 31 48 / 90 80 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.