textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

- Heat & Humidity: Hot and humid conditions persist through the week, with heat indices peaking between 95 and 100 degrees.

- Active Pattern: The current wet, unsettled pattern will persist through the week, resulting in periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 954 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have been redeveloping this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of this activity has been a bit unorganized as it moves through Central Alabama. The latest runs of the HRRR continue to hint at these storms becoming more organized as it approaches our southeastern areas. Any storms that do develop will primarily pose a damaging wind threat. This activity will gradually move south of us late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

The aforementioned cold front will stall along the Northern Gulf coast on Tuesday, eventually washing out by midweek. Upper level ridging out to our west will leave us in a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Several shortwaves look to rotate through this flow which will help ignite additional showers and storms along and to the south of the lingering boundary. Most of Central Alabama will remain dry tomorrow with the greatest rain chances across our southern tier of counties. We will see an uptick in rain chances on Wednesday as a stronger H5 shortwave moves through the region. As we head into the weekend, rain chances begin to lower as a subtropical ridge takes control. With that said, plentiful moisture will remain in place allowing for low chances of diurnally driven convection daily. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices generally in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026

The low stratus deck that was trying to move southward toward BHM based on GOES-19 satellite imagery overnight seems to be slowing, and may not actually make it to BHM, TCL, or EET. Satellite imagery and observations will be monitored for potential amendments. For now, a short-duration MVFR deck was added at BHM and EET, but should mix out to VFR category by 15z at the latest. Clouds are expected to clear across much of Central Alabama this afternoon following the passage of a cold front last night. As a result, VFR conditions are forecast through the end of the period. Northwesterly surface winds will prevail around 10 knots with gusts approaching 20 knots at times, diminishing after 00z this evening.

Note: METARs from AUO are available but missing data; therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 81 60 85 65 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 81 61 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 83 63 86 68 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 85 65 87 69 / 0 0 30 20 Calera 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 10 20 Auburn 85 65 86 68 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 86 65 86 68 / 0 0 10 20 Troy 86 65 87 67 / 10 0 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.