textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 500 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026

- Widespread showers return late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. No hazardous weather or abnormally cold temperatures are expected for the period.

- Long-range guidance trends are indicating a significant and much warmer pattern change in store for the area.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026

The "heat wave" is beginning, even though it will be briefly interrupted on Thursday behind a cold front moving through Wednesday. Fairly widespread rain will begin to enter the northwestern portions of the area late Tuesday afternoon and then slide through during the day on Wednesday. The front will slowly move across the area until a second shortwave can slide down and kick the front further east out of our domain. Only minimal instability will be available with this front so rain is really the only impact we will see with this system. A return to the 50s and 60s is expected on Friday through the weekend along with return to southerly flow. Long-range guidance trends are indicating a significant and much warmer pattern change across the U.S. by the week of February 9th. The Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting a high chance for much of the Deep South to observe above normal temperatures during this period.

16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 500 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026

VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds will increase out of the southwest to around 10-12 knots through the late morning hours Tuesday. An approaching cold front will lead to -RA late in this TAF window at BHM/EET/TCL.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Winds have shifted to the southwest. We should still see RH values low this afternoon, but then increase substantially this evening and Tuesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. Widespread rain showers are expected late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, with rainfall amounts generally less than one-half inch on average. Rain-free conditions will return Thursday and remain through the weekend, with no critical fire weather conditions currently anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 26 58 40 47 / 0 70 90 10 Anniston 30 59 43 48 / 0 50 100 10 Birmingham 33 59 41 47 / 0 70 100 10 Tuscaloosa 32 59 39 47 / 0 80 90 0 Calera 30 61 42 49 / 0 60 100 10 Auburn 32 60 48 53 / 0 10 100 40 Montgomery 31 65 49 55 / 0 20 100 30 Troy 31 65 51 57 / 0 10 90 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.