textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

- There is a medium chance that some communities across Central Alabama will see their first 90 degree day of the year by early next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the region mid to late next week. Until then, any activity will be very limited in coverage as fair weather dominates.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 112 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Another dry day across Central Alabama this afternoon with ridging off the East Coast. Low chance PoPs have been maintained for tomorrow afternoon across eastern Central Alabama along the Georgia line along a weak shortwave. Most of Central Alabama should remain dry, however. High temperatures will gradually rise into early week, with upper 80s to around 90F becoming common around the region. Moisture will increase across Alabama with increased southerly flow ahead of a trough over the Great Plains. Shortwaves moving along the southeastern periphery of this trough should increase chances for showers and thunderstorms during the second half of the week, as the ridging to the east loses influence. As a result, we should see high temperatures back off a bit into the mid 80s by late week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as ridging remains over the East Coast. Southerly winds 5-10 kts become light and variable overnight. High clouds and occasional low clouds will occur at times with a weak upper disturbance passing through the region. No rain is anticipated to impact terminals.

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FIRE WEATHER

Shower and thunderstorm chances are nil to very low through early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are then forecast mid to late in the week. Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue across Central Alabama, though the lack of low MinRH or gusty winds over the days ahead lessens bona fide fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 89 61 88 / 0 10 0 20 Anniston 61 88 63 87 / 0 20 10 20 Birmingham 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 59 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 59 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 65 88 65 87 / 0 20 20 20 Montgomery 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 62 88 63 88 / 0 10 0 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.