textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 134 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop daily through next week. Some storms may become strong, particularly during the afternoon and early evening.

- Expect an additional 2 to 3 inches of rainfall across Central Alabama through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 134 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Active weather will continue over the next several days in the form of waves of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly flow will continue pumping warm, moist air from the Gulf into Central Alabama as an upper low builds in briefly over East Texas early in the week while a ridge is situated off the East Coast.

This afternoon, rain probability remains high, well above normal. Persistent southerly flow ensures ample moisture for generating showers and storms today. Current radar trends are showing a MCS spinning through Louisiana and into southern Mississippi. An effective warm front is sliding north and stretches from the MCS, eastward to Tallahassee, Florida. The overall motion of the MCS is to the east, but the front is sliding north, with the southerly flow and overall motion of the MCS. Energy transfer appears to be ongoing from the MCS to the effective warm front. The ARW model and several other short term models were indicating this was plausible this afternoon. Will trend the forecast toward this camp of models, with the remnants of the complex sliding through southwestern Alabama late afternoon and into northeastern Alabama this early evening. Ahead of this we will see scattered showers and storms quickly go up. These will be more of your typical pulse strong to marginally severe storms. Cells exhibiting right-deviant motion will have the highest severe potential. There is plenty of CAPE at the surface between 3000 and 3500, but generally less than 50 SRH. Will keep our eyes on all the activity for any instances of severe weather. Much of the activity will dissipate overnight.

For Sunday, the pattern looks to be the same as today, but a little bit more east into our area. The consensus of the models once again develop a MCS and slides it east across the southern half the area. This really appears to be more of an afternoon event as well, but could move into the southeast late morning, so will need to keep an eye on it. Right now, the severe potential remains low, but certainly will see stronger storms, especially if the MCS does in fact develop.

Medium to high rain chances will continue through next week, providing much-needed drought relief across Central Alabama. Through Tuesday night, model guidance currently suggests widespread rainfall totals of 2-3 inches across the region. Of course, locally higher amounts would be expected in areas that see heavier rain or thunderstorms at times over the next several days.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon and evening. TAF timing for thunderstorm activity has been refined. The highest probability for thunderstorms at MGM and AUO is 20Z through 02Z-04Z. The best chance for thunderstorms at TCL and BHM is 21Z through 01Z-02Z. EET already has activity, with additional storms around the timing of BHM TAF. Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR after 08Z-09Z and remain low through most of Sunday. Thunderstorm activity may occur just outside of this primary cycle.

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FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce daily showers and thunderstorms this weekend and through next week. These instances of precipitation and lack of low RH should keep fire weather conditions at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 65 83 63 82 / 70 80 60 90 Anniston 66 83 65 83 / 70 80 60 90 Birmingham 68 83 66 82 / 60 80 60 90 Tuscaloosa 69 84 67 82 / 50 80 70 90 Calera 68 84 66 84 / 60 80 60 90 Auburn 69 84 67 84 / 50 70 60 90 Montgomery 68 85 67 84 / 50 70 60 90 Troy 69 86 67 85 / 50 70 50 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.