textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

- Heat: Heat indices are expected to range from 100-105 degrees this afternoon, creating a moderate to major heat risk. Please prioritize heat safety precautions.

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern begins with periods of heavy rainfall expected, particularly across the southern half of Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

Overall, not much change in our thinking with this forecast update. A stalled cold front can be analyzed just to our north across much of Tennessee. This feature will slowly retreat back to the north through the day. Without any surface forcing and quasi-zonal flow aloft, any convection that develops today will be diurnally driven. Select forecast soundings suggest ample instability in place with fairly weak shear. Therefore, any storms are expected to be relatively short-lived. Brief heavy rainfall will be likely with any passing shower or storm today as a plume of 1.8-2" PWATs remains in place across the state.

By Sunday, an upper level shortwave will eject across the Midwest while sending another frontal boundary our way. This front will slowly move across the area Sunday into Monday, eventually stalling across the central or southern part of the CWA. Deep tropical moisture continues to funnel inland ahead of this feature, leading to continued moderate to high rain chances, generally south of the front. Rainfall rates will likely be high at times through the work week as forecast soundings reveal a fully saturated profile and a deep warm cloud depth which is indicative of high rainfall rates. As we head towards the late stages of the work week, we will need to keep a close eye on a potential tropical wave across the Western Gulf. Guidance continues to lift this wave north and east across the Gulf, which would pull a swath of deep tropical moisture back across much of the southeast. This moisture combined with another cold front moving in front the north has the potential to be a heavy rainfall producer. Current forecast rainfall amounts range from 2- 4" across the area. However, probabilities are trending up for higher amounts with a few LREF members now hinting at a medium chance for amounts over 5". We will continue to watch the latest trends with this scenario.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Another round of isolated to scattered convection is expected again this afternoon. However, confidence was only high enough to maintain PROB30s for TSRA at this time. Otherwise, light winds remain in place through early Sunday morning. Winds begin to increase out of the west by late morning with gusts around 20 knots likely.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances increase on Sunday and continue into early next week as a front slowly moves across the region. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 90 69 82 / 20 60 50 40 Anniston 74 89 70 81 / 10 60 50 60 Birmingham 75 91 70 81 / 20 50 60 60 Tuscaloosa 76 92 72 81 / 20 30 60 80 Calera 75 94 71 83 / 10 40 50 80 Auburn 75 92 73 84 / 10 40 30 80 Montgomery 75 93 74 84 / 10 20 40 90 Troy 75 93 74 86 / 10 30 20 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.