textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 554 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026

- A more active weather pattern is expected the next 7 days with several rounds of showers and storms expected. Some areas will receive beneficial rainfall.

- Low chance for severe weather Monday night, followed by a more organized severe weather threat Tuesday and Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will weaken through the night, with dry weather prevailing through the early morning on Sunday. Enough low level moisture combined with light winds will allow for fog to develop across much of the area. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday, a weak low level trough moves to the eastern coast with low level flow over the state transitioning to a northerly flow. This will allow drier air to filter into the northern portions of the state. Models are fairly consistent in a five to 10 degree gradient in dewpoint values from northeast to southwest through much of the day. An MCS-type system will develop over the MS River Valley and move southeast. CAMs agree that this feature may clip the far southwestern counties in the afternoon. Instability of 2000 to 3000 J/kg seems to be limited to these counties, and high enough to support a high wind threat from this MCS. CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg across the southwestern half of the area will allow for additional afternoon scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. All activity should weaken after sunset.

Monday, a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, with a trailing cold front moving across the TN River Valley. The day will be mostly dry with a low chance for isolated diurnal convection developing with fairly weak instabilities through the afternoon. Low level flow will transition to a southerly direction ahead of this front, with moisture increasing. An associated mid level jet will begin to impact northwestern areas by the afternoon, with gusty winds from the afternoon through overnight. The front will slowly move into northern Alabama Monday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms. From here, the front stalls, remaining somewhere over the northern half of the state. Models are fairly consistent on timing, sometime between midnight and sunrise. The severe threat is expected to be low due to the late-night/early-morning timing, front stalling, and weakening forcing.

Tuesday, a shortwave moves across the TN River Valley, with an even stronger mid level jet moving across the northern half of the state. Winds will remain gusty through the day and into the night. There is a low chance for isolated diurnal convection in the afternoon. Instability will be meager, with the main focus overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is enough instability around 1000 to 2000 J/kg and around or greater than 40kts shear to support strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the northwestern counties. Activity will continue east and south through the rest of the day Wednesday.

From here, the stalled front will weaken and move to the south, with the focus of storms also shifting south and likely out of central AL. Dry weather returns through the rest of the work week ahead of the next low pressure system and frontal boundary by Saturday.

24

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026

Low-level moisture is contributing to foggy conditions at terminals this morning. Sites will experience IFR to MVFR cig and vis through 13-14z, after which conditions should improve to VFR. ASN may hang onto MVFR cigs through 16z. Light winds will persist throughout the day, and VFR conditions are expected to last through tomorrow night.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

12

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are mainly focused across the southwestern half of the state Sunday, with lowered chances Monday. RH values should remain mainly in the 40 to 50 percent range. Several opportunities for showers and storms are then expected the rest of the week, with higher MinRH values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 50 Anniston 83 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 40 Birmingham 85 61 84 65 / 0 10 10 50 Tuscaloosa 85 62 87 66 / 10 10 20 50 Calera 86 60 86 64 / 0 10 10 40 Auburn 84 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 85 61 87 63 / 0 10 10 10 Troy 86 61 86 62 / 10 10 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson- Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker.