textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts to impact parts of central Alabama this afternoon and evening.

- Less humid conditions are forecast Wednesday through Friday, including a break from recent rainy weather.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

The complex of thunderstorms we've been advertising the last few days is currently gaining strength to our north, with the general trends remaining it dropping south over the course of this afternoon. A tight axis of high instability values currently stretches N/S across the state, meaning this complex of storms will have plenty of energy to sustain itself over the course of the day. We're running a few hours behind schedule, but the consensus remains that this complex will work across the region, following this larger axis of instability towards the coast. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat with these strong to severe thunderstorms.

The pattern we've been stuck in these last few weeks will finally begin to break down on Tuesday, as a cold front starts to work into the area from the NE, aided by a deepening trough over the East Coast. Once this front moves through, high pressure will quickly build in, suppressing rain chances into the weekend. Low rain chances appear possible as moisture increases into Saturday, with mostly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms anticipated.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

Heavy thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the afternoon and evening hours, with all terminals carrying TEMPO groups for +TSRA past 01/19z. This activity will generally move N/S into the evening hours, with additional scattered thunderstorms possible past 02/03z. Confidence is lower here, with impacts remaining limited to PROB30 groups. Expect quick drops in conditions with the heavy activity this afternoon, with conditions clearing into VFR category behind the main line.

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FIRE WEATHER

There are no fire weather concerns over the week ahead. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and Tuesday. Rain- free and less-humid weather is likely Wednesday through Friday. Moisture values climb again this weekend with at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms returning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 82 56 79 / 50 30 10 0 Anniston 67 82 58 78 / 40 40 10 0 Birmingham 68 83 60 79 / 50 40 10 0 Tuscaloosa 71 86 64 82 / 50 30 10 0 Calera 68 86 60 81 / 50 40 10 0 Auburn 69 84 62 77 / 30 60 30 0 Montgomery 70 86 63 80 / 30 40 30 0 Troy 70 88 62 79 / 30 40 50 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.