textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 728 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026

- Severe Weather Potential: A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms is forecast later today through tonight for the northern half of Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds and isolated, brief tornadoes are the primary hazards.

- Flood Threat: A chance for localized flooding will continue as storms with heavy rains move across locations where soil conditions remain saturated.

- Active Pattern: The current wet, unsettled pattern will persist through the week, resulting in periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals an upper level shortwave cutting across the Plains. This feature will be one of the forces behind our next threat for strong to severe storms. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed across the Southern Plains. This boundary will slowly sag south, eventually stalling across the state sometime Monday night into Tuesday morning. If we take a look out to our west, a cluster of storms is beginning to develop back across Missouri. This activity will move south overnight, likely weakening as it moves through Mississippi. With that said, our northwestern counties may receive a glancing blow from any lingering activity during the morning hours. We will need to keep an eye out for any convective development through the day as outflow boundaries are likely to be lingering across the region. CAMs continue to hint at a line of storms developing just off to our northwest during the mid afternoon hours, moving through Central Alabama during the evening and overnight hours. Ample instability and bulk shear around 35 knots would support the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the primary concern. With that said, guidance is highlighting a corridor of enhanced SRH (200-300 m2/s2) during the late afternoon and early evening hours, mainly across the northern half of the state. This will pose a brief threat for an isolated tornado or two. As a result, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Storms across our northwestern counties and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for most of Central Alabama. Given saturated ground conditions, even non-severe winds could result in downed trees; remain weather aware on Monday, particularly across the northern half of the area. In addition to the severe threat, we will also have a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for the northern half of the area on Monday. These storms should be moving at a decent rate so that should help limit our flooding threat. However, a fully saturated profile and a deep warm cloud depth will lead to high rain rates with this activity, leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.

Through the remainder of the work week, upper-level ridging will establish control to the west, resulting in northwest flow aloft. Several H5 shortwaves are expected to rotate through this regime, maintaining elevated rain chances. The aforementioned cold front will linger through the week maximizing low-level convergence and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. As we head into the weekend, rain chances begin to lower as a subtropical ridge takes control. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees early next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026

IFR stratus is prevailing across most terminals this morning ahead of the upcoming weather system that will bring SHRA and TSRA chances to most terminals late today through the night tonight. Through 18z today, ceilings will rise to VFR category as southwesterly winds become gusty. Prevailing winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 20 and 25 knots will be common at TCL, BHM, and EET this afternoon, with slightly lighter winds at MGM and AUO. TSRA chances will begin to move into the picture between 19z and 00z for TCL, BHM, and EET, potentially lingering a bit longer as late as 03z. With higher confidence of terminals being affected, went with TEMPO TSRA for these terminals, while leaving PROB30s in at MGM and AUO with lower confidence of widespread storms reaching into southern Alabama. During the evening, winds are forecast to subside with another chance for MVFR to IFR stratus development overnight once again.

Note: METARs from AUO are available but missing data; therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 70 85 65 / 80 80 20 10 Anniston 87 71 84 67 / 60 80 20 10 Birmingham 87 71 85 69 / 70 80 20 10 Tuscaloosa 88 72 86 70 / 60 70 40 20 Calera 90 71 88 69 / 50 70 40 10 Auburn 88 72 86 70 / 20 50 30 10 Montgomery 90 73 87 71 / 20 50 40 20 Troy 90 73 88 70 / 20 40 40 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.