textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast by Friday, with the best chances Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher possible.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

Deep moisture will continue streaming into the region from the south, although generally dry conditions will persist across much of the area through Saturday. Moisture return will gradually increase through the weekend, albeit somewhat delayed as a cold front stalls to the north and Gulf moisture is partially intercepted by coastal convection. By Sunday, a shortwave impulse is projected to track north-northeastward out of the Gulf into southwestern Central Alabama. This feature will aid in lifting heavier rainfall farther inland rather than confining it to the coast. Monday night into Tuesday, a deepening trough over eastern Canada will kick the cold front southward through the area. In its wake, a cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region, bringing a return to seasonable temperatures through midweek.

Confidence remains moderate that the approaching cold front will stall far enough north to allow Sunday's shortwave to traverse a significant portion of the local area. This setup is expected to produce widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches through Monday. Given the moderate-to-heavy nature of the precipitation, locally higher amounts exceeding two inches are possible, with probabilities of exceedance around 50 percent across central and southern portions of the forecast area. PoPs were lowered slightly for Saturday to reflect recent guidance trends showing reduced coverage, and further reductions may be necessary in subsequent updates.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

As high pressure slides eastward, southeasterly winds will increase slightly to around 7-9kts this afternoon. Moisture will also begin to increase, but VFR conditions will continue. There will be a low (20%) chance of a shower in the vicinity of MGM this afternoon, but this probability is too low to mention in the TAF.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will persist through most of Friday, with isolated rain chances overnight primarily limited to southern areas. As southerly flow returns, humidity levels will increase into the 50s and low 60s on Friday. Rain chances increase significantly Sunday into Monday, with the highest probabilities across southern and central sections.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 67 91 69 88 / 0 20 20 50 Anniston 68 90 70 88 / 0 20 20 40 Birmingham 69 90 71 88 / 0 20 20 40 Tuscaloosa 70 93 70 91 / 10 20 20 50 Calera 69 91 70 88 / 0 20 20 40 Auburn 69 88 70 85 / 0 20 20 60 Montgomery 70 91 71 88 / 10 30 20 70 Troy 69 90 70 86 / 10 40 30 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.