textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

- Major to Extreme Heat: A significant heat risk is expected to persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week, with heat indices reaching 105 to near 110 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect.

- Convection: A summertime convective pattern persists with 20-50% rain chances, primarily favoring southern areas while north-central Alabama remains mostly dry.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

The main story over the next several days will be our prolonged and dangerous heat wave. A strengthening upper level ridge will lead to increasing temperatures over the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s for most of the region through Monday. Those across our western areas will see readings around 100-101 degrees at times. Continued humid conditions will keep heat indices generally in the 105-109 range. A few locations may briefly see heat indices in the 110-112 range over the weekend. Similar to our thinking last night, the areal coverage will likely not be widespread enough to warrant an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning at this time. We will continue to monitor the trends and upgrade if necessary. Heat Advisories are currently in effect through Sunday evening.

This pattern will continue to promote a typically summertime convection regime with low to moderate (20-50%) chances for showers and storms. Greatest chances for showers and storms will be across our southern areas as deeper moisture spreads inland. Those across central and north-central Alabama will likely remain dry as ridging helps keep a lid on things. However, an isolated shower or storm wouldn't be surprising across north-central Alabama.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any storms. Have included VCTS early this morning at EET for a storm south of the airport. For this afternoon, highest (30-40%) chances for scattered TSRA will be at MGM and AUO Saturday afternoon near a weakness in the ridge, and the PROB30 mention will be maintained. Chances of TSRA are too low (10-20%) to mention at other terminals this afternoon as drier air moves in.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

32/JDavis

FIRE WEATHER

As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the next several days, with the greatest chances across our southern areas. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 98 75 100 76 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 96 74 97 74 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 98 76 99 77 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 101 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 98 75 99 76 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 94 75 94 76 / 40 10 10 0 Montgomery 98 76 99 77 / 40 10 10 0 Troy 97 75 98 75 / 50 10 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.