textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 702 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2026

- Halloween Evening: A rainy weekend is brewing in the cauldron, but the trick-or-treating outlook is losing its fright factor. We expect the skies to hold their watery spells until after the witching hour, but keep your enchanted rain cloaks and umbrellas on standby just in case a rogue shower tries to dampen your spirits!

- Midweek rain: Another weather system will move into the area around the middle part of next week bringing increased rain chances.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon reveals a shortwave lifting across Texas. A plume of deep moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance accompanying this upper level feature will combine with a swath of healthy PWATs coming in off the Gulf, promoting increased rain chances over the weekend. While the greatest chances look to come overnight, we will carry low chances (20-30%) Saturday afternoon so keep that in mind before heading out for some trick-or-treating. With that said, some of the higher resolution guidance continues back off in coverage. Otherwise, the shortwave is expected to slowly lift northeastward through the day on Sunday, leaving low to medium chances for rain through Sunday evening.

Weak ridging early next week will lead to a few rain-free days before our next system arrives by mid week. There are several details we will need to work out over the coming days such as how far south the upper level low moves and how quickly it tracks through the region. For now, we will carry a moderate (40-60%) chance of showers and storms as ample moisture will be in place ahead of this system.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2026

High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions at all sites through the TAF period as surface high pressure remains anchored to the east. Upper-level moisture streaming over the ridge will lead to a gradual increase in high cirrus overnight into Saturday. Light easterly surface winds around 5 kt overnight will strengthen to around 10 kt by late Saturday morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens slightly.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture will begin to slowly increase this afternoon and evening, leading to min RHs increasing into the 35-45% range. Over the weekend, a surge of deeper moisture will keep RHs well above 50% through the next week, leading to increased rain chances Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 77 55 66 / 0 20 40 60 Anniston 58 76 57 67 / 0 10 40 60 Birmingham 61 76 57 66 / 0 30 50 60 Tuscaloosa 61 77 60 69 / 0 30 50 70 Calera 61 75 58 66 / 0 40 50 50 Auburn 62 75 59 69 / 0 20 30 40 Montgomery 62 78 62 72 / 0 30 50 50 Troy 62 77 60 71 / 0 30 30 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.