textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

- Heat: A major heat risk is expected this Wednesday afternoon across Central Alabama, with maximum heat indices from 105 to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the south and west portions of the area.

- Severe Weather: There is a 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the southeastern portions of Central Alabama this Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals an upper level ridge out to our west and a trough moving towards the East Coast. A few shortwaves can be seen between these two features. The first is currently guiding a cluster of thunderstorms across northern Georgia. We will need to keep an eye on this activity for the next few hours as it has slowly begun building back to the west. The latest CAMs are in our favor with this activity fizzling out with only a stray shower or two moving into Alabama late this evening. Another shortwave can be analyzed off to our west. This one will be responsible for our low to medium chances for showers and storms on Wednesday. Activity on Wednesday will generally be focused along and south of a boundary slowly moving south across the state. A few strong to marginally severe storms are likely across our southern areas during the afternoon as we reach peak heating and destabilize sufficiently. This trend will continue through the end of the work week as bouts of upper level energy rotate through the northwest flow aloft. Greatest rain chances Thursday and Friday will generally be across the southern part of the state. Another upper trough cuts across the Plains into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. This will send a front our way, leading to increased rain chances over the weekend.

Wednesday looks to be another fairly uncomfortable day with highs in the low 90s for our northern counties to the mid 90s for our central and southern areas. Continued muggy conditions will warrant a moderate to major heat risk with heat indices around 105-109. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is now in effect for the southern half of the CWA on Wednesday. We will knock off a couple of degrees Thursday into the weekend as the ridge retreats back west. High temps look to settle into the upper 80s to low 90s by Friday.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period, outside of convection. High cirrus are expected to tonight west of a GA complex. Otherwise, look light and variable winds overnight. During the day afternoon convection may occur across the south near a surface boundary. I have PROB30s for all but BHM at this time due to timing and expected orientation of activity. Some reduced VSBYs may occur with any heavier rains. Wind during the day outside of convection will be NW ~5-10kts.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

08

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in check for the week. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 69 91 66 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 91 69 90 66 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 93 72 92 70 / 20 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 95 74 94 71 / 20 30 10 0 Calera 96 72 95 69 / 20 20 0 0 Auburn 93 73 91 71 / 20 20 10 0 Montgomery 97 74 95 72 / 30 30 20 0 Troy 97 73 94 71 / 30 30 40 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton- Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry- Pickens-Pike-Russell-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.