textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026

- Dry conditions will continue, with a warming trend expected through the rest of the work week.

- Temperatures will drop this weekend following a cold front.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026

In the lower levels, ridging is present across the Central Atlantic Coast with SE flow into AL. This ridge center will progress EWD away from Conus this afternoon, elongating the overall ridge back into the SE US and into the Gulf on Thu. The flow into AL will be weak S-SWerly. In the upper levels, we continue with a large ridge over the SW US and into NRN Mexico, giving way to a NW flow into AL. This upper ridge will elongate/ flatten over the next couple of days spreading EWD toward the Gulf Coast, altering our flow into AL slightly to a more WNW flow. However, this should still be enough of a push for a cold front to make its way through C AL on Fri. Temperatures will continue to warm in advance of this front for highs and lows today through the daytime on Fri, with 80s making their way back into the area again. As our flow has been quite dry lately, the probability for rain is very low across C AL with this front. There will be better chances to our N across NRN AL and into TN. More pleasant and cooler readings will be present for this weekend. Temperatures warm back again as we head into next week as ridging over E Conus quickly moves into the WRN Atlantic by Mon.

08

Previous discussion: (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a stout upper ridge across the southwestern US and and upper trough pushing offshore of the northeastern US. This leaves us with west-northwest flow aloft for the next couple of days. Much drier air in place (PWATs down around 0.5") have allowed us to cool off pretty efficiently this evening. As of writing, temps are currently in the upper 50s to mid 60s. We remain on track to drop into the 40s/50s by Wednesday morning.

Dry conditions remain in place through the week as upper ridging expands east. However, if we do our best to find a mechanism to produce rain, we can pull out a weak H7 shortwave moving across the TN Valley tonight. CAMS are doing their best to hint at some very light activity as there is a thin layer of moisture around H7. With that said, much drier air in the lower levels would likely prevent much of this activity from reaching the surface. Ridging begins to retreat back west by the weekend as a trough digs across the Great Lakes while sending a cold front our way. Moisture recovery does not look too impressive ahead of this boundary so this will likely be a dry FROPA for most. Best rain chances will be across northern AL where there is a 10-30% chance.

Regarding our fire weather concerns, moisture will begin to recover through the day tomorrow as a southeasterly ~30kt LLJ develops. We will need to pay close attention to the trends regarding this weekend's front. Much drier air looks to surge in leading to RHs back into the 20-25% range.

Lastly, we will see a warming trend kick in through the week with highs rebounding back into the mid 80s by Friday. We trim off about 10-15 degrees on Saturday in the wake of a cold front. That cool snap doesn't last long as we warm right back up early next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026

VFR conditions and light and variable winds are in place across all terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle. The one exception will be TCL where a TEMPO for MVFR around sunrise has been introduced as low level moisture increases from the southwest. Otherwise, southerly winds increase to around 10 knots through the morning hours.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture will begin to slightly recover for the latter half of the work week. Min RH values this afternoon and Thursday will hover in the 40-50% range, with maybe a few upper 30% values for Thursday. A cold front will move through on Friday with much drier air moving into the area over the weekend. RHs will fall into the 20-25% range each afternoon. Winds will likely be elevated in the wake of that front so we will need to monitor for increased fire weather concerns.

CLIMATE

Issued at 600 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 26: KBHM: 86/1929 KEET: 85/2020 KTCL: 87/2005

March 27: KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 84/1994 KTCL: 86/2021

March 31: KEET: 83/1998

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 53 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 54 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 58 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 58 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 56 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 56 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 55 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.