textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms remain in the forecast through the weekend. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher possible.

- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and persist into the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 108 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

The overall synoptic setup and forecast expectations through the weekend remain largely unchanged. Key features include a stalled boundary to our north and a shortwave advancing inland from the Gulf. Within 24 hours of onset, model uncertainty persists regarding the exact intensity of the Gulf system and the final alignment of the stationary front. Recent guidance trends suggest the front has stalled farther north than previously projected, whereas the shortwave appears slightly better organized as it moves inland. Guidance continues to underrepresent the coverage of diurnally driven and outflow-dominant convection within this moist, high precipitable water (PWAT) environment.

The heaviest rainfall remains projected for Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front begins pushing southward across the forecast area. The highest totals are expected south of I-20, with peak accumulations concentrated along and near the I- 85 corridor closer to the track of the Gulf low. Widespread rainfall between I-20 and I-85 should range from 1 to 2 inches, while areas along and south of I-85 could see 2 to 3 inches. A few deterministic models continue to hint at localized pockets exceeding 5 inches; while the high PWAT airmass supports these efficient rainfall rates, run-to-run inconsistency limits confidence regarding exact placement.

By Tuesday morning, a deepening upper-level trough traversing the Midwest will drive the cold front fully through the region. This transition will usher in a significantly cooler, more seasonable airmass for next week, bringing afternoon high temperatures down into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

Rain probabilities will remain high the next 24 hours, with all terminals carrying SHRA and RA for most of this TAF period. Low clouds are also anticipated overnight, with MVFR CIGs transitioning to IFR CIGs by 04/15. This is where flight categories are expected to remain, given the widespread rainfall moving through the state into Monday.

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FIRE WEATHER

Southerly flow through the weekend, bringing higher rain chances. Broadly, the area will see around 1 inch of rain by Sunday night. Chances of receiving 2 inches or more drop to 30-50% across the north and 60-80% in the south, while probabilities for exceeding 3 inches remain lower at 10-20% in the north and 30-40% in the south. Overall, there is roughly an 80% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rainfall across Central Alabama, with lower probabilities for higher totals. Drier and cooler air returns on Tuesday and persists through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 79 64 83 / 60 90 60 10 Anniston 69 77 66 82 / 60 90 60 20 Birmingham 70 78 66 83 / 60 90 60 10 Tuscaloosa 70 81 66 87 / 60 90 40 10 Calera 70 78 66 83 / 60 90 60 20 Auburn 70 75 67 79 / 70 100 90 40 Montgomery 71 77 68 82 / 70 100 80 40 Troy 69 76 67 80 / 80 100 90 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.