textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

- Thunderstorms: A brief pattern shift will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the weekend. Some of this rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026

This evening, an upper shortwave continues to dig southwestward out of an upper low over Eastern Canada and has deteriorated the ridge across the Southern US. This will give just enough northwest flow to push a surface front close to Alabama to stretch from Arkansas to Kentucky and the Maryland coast by early Friday as the parent associated surface low moves eastward across and out of Quebec. Rain chances increase significantly for Friday into the weekend for all of Central Alabama. The main energy from the surface low will push eastward into the Atlantic on Friday with the boundary pushing back well to the north, giving way to a moist southerly fetch into the state. In the upper levels, positively tilted troughing shifts closer to Alabama with ample disturbance activity expected for Friday and Saturday across Central Alabama. While the probability for widespread flooding is low, QPF amounts of 0.5 to around 1.5 inches are likely with up to 2 inches of rain may occur over this time frame with a few locally isolated higher amounts.

By Sunday, the trough weakens as the upper ridge builds across the eastern half of the Southern US. While there is still a medium chance for activity to occur, it should be more scattered in nature with lower amounts overall. By Monday, and into the middle part of next week, the upper ridge is expected to strengthen further across East Central Conus. This will yield a weak easterly flow into Central Alabama and more diurnally enhanced isolated convective activity once again for the remainder of the forecast with low QPF amounts.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Rain and occasional thunder is ongoing across Central Alabama this morning. Added TEMPO groups for TSRA for TCL and SHRA at other sites starting at 12z. Convection chances increase today with shortwave activity expected across the Deep South. The best chances will be this afternoon, with PROB30 and TEMPO groups remaining effective for all sites until 00z for TCL and 04z for BHM, EET, MGM, and AUO this evening. Cigs and vis may drop at times in heavier rain.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at TCL due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. Rain chances will increase for Friday and into this weekend. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up during next week if significant rainfall does not occur over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 70 88 69 / 50 70 90 30 Anniston 89 71 86 70 / 60 60 90 40 Birmingham 90 71 88 72 / 70 60 90 30 Tuscaloosa 90 71 91 72 / 60 50 80 20 Calera 89 71 88 71 / 70 70 90 40 Auburn 87 71 86 71 / 70 40 80 50 Montgomery 89 71 90 71 / 60 50 80 40 Troy 89 70 91 70 / 70 40 80 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.