textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1038 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

- There is a medium chance that some communities across Central Alabama will see their first 90 degree day of the year by early next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the region mid to late next week. Until then, any activity will be very limited in coverage as fair weather dominates.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening paints a fairly active picture across the country as a series of shortwaves eject across the Plains ahead of a stout upper trough over the Pacific NW. At the surface, high pressure remains in control across the southeast. As a result, we can expect another mild night with lows generally falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. There is a low (15-25%) chance for patchy fog across our southwestern counties as dewpoints narrow overnight. Condensation pressure deficits around 5mb support patchy fog development as well. A ~20 knot LLJ will help usher a plume of healthy moisture across the eastern half of the state tomorrow. This uptick in moisture and a few passing shortwaves will warrant a low chance of showers and storms during the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday. With that said, most will remain dry through the middle of the work week.

We see the pattern change by mid week as an upper trough begins to nudge the upper ridge off to the east. A cold front will push across the southeast by Wednesday, eventually stalling through the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves will eject across the region, leading to continued low to moderate chances for showers and storms through the end of the week.

Lastly, temperatures will be on the warm side over the next several days with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Increased cloud cover by mid week will knock about 5 degrees off our highs with temps settling into the low to mid 80s.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as ridging remains over the East Coast. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the south through the late morning hours Sunday. Gusts near 20 knots are likely at times for AUO/BHM/EET. No rain is anticipated to impact terminals.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the next several days. With that said, there are low chances for isolated showers and storms across our eastern areas both Sunday and Monday afternoon. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls across the region. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 89 62 88 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 61 88 64 87 / 0 10 10 10 Birmingham 63 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 60 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 60 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 66 89 66 88 / 0 20 10 20 Montgomery 63 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 63 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.