textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 646 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026

- A marginal to slight risk (level 1 to 2 of 5) remains in effect through this evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats with any severe activity.

- The next chance of rain will be Friday and Saturday, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026

This afternoon a frontal boundary extended from WRN PA SWWD to NW AL and back toward TX. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection is already developing over MS. This convection will spread EWD across C AL this afternoon into Thu. There is expected to be sufficient forcing and instability for strong to marginally severe storms to develop through this evening ahead of it. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat. NRLY flow will help to give us a rain break behind the front for Thu afternoon and evening. An upper shortwave will allow for rain chances to return for Fri and Sat. However, temperatures and dew points will be much lower behind the front as this wave moves through. Look for mainly rain showers with low probability of thunderstorms with the activity for Fri and Sat.

Dry weather returns on Sun behind the upper system with a large surface ridge extending from TX, across the Deep South and into the Carolinas. Cool and pleasant spring conditions are expected. Rain-free weather will continue under the influence of ridging through the end of our extended forecast on Tue. Look for a warming trend as we move into Mon and Tue across AL as our airmass moderates and the surface ridge weakens.

08

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026

A surface cold front is approaching the Interstate 59 corridor from the northwest while a few mid-level shortwaves are moving east over the western counties early this evening. Moderate confidence for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect TCL, BHM, and EET through mid to late evening, followed by improving conditions overnight. Moderate confidence for showers and a few thunderstorms affecting MGM/AUB later in the night through early Thursday morning. Expect some low clouds to persist even after showers and storms move out through mid Thursday morning before before VFR conditions are expected to return areawide toward midday, for which there is high confidence.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for late this afternoon through Thursday morning ahead of a cold front. Drier air behind the front will drop RHs back into the 30-40% range across the northern counties on Thursday afternoon, before rebounding as rain chances return for Friday and Saturday. Drier conditions return again for Sunday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 51 72 47 69 / 60 10 10 20 Anniston 56 73 50 70 / 70 20 10 30 Birmingham 56 72 52 69 / 80 20 10 30 Tuscaloosa 56 74 52 70 / 80 20 10 50 Calera 56 75 52 71 / 80 30 10 40 Auburn 61 74 55 69 / 90 30 10 40 Montgomery 61 75 54 66 / 90 30 20 50 Troy 61 76 54 68 / 90 40 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.