textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

- Pattern Change Next Week: A very strong and elongated ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the center of the U.S. by next week. As a result, confidence is increasing for above-average temperatures by the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

The region remains influenced by a weak mid-level closed low situated over the Central Mississippi River Valley, which continues to provide synoptic lift. This system, interacting with remnant outflow boundaries, will drive the increase in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. While activity is expected to peak during the afternoon, particularly across northern counties, some storms may persist into the overnight hours over the next 48 hours. Expected hazards include frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds of 20- 30 mph. Persistent hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the area, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s and heat indices at or above 100 degrees, consistent with the broader pattern of dangerous heat persisting across the Southeast.

The closed low will gradually drift northeastward and weaken, leading to a decrease in overall forcing and storm coverage. By Friday, rain chances will decrease and become confined primarily to the eastern portion of the area, returning to the typical isolated to scattered, diurnally driven convective regime. Heat indices will also increase by Friday into Saturday with readings possibly reaching 105 degrees, which may approach or meet Heat Advisory criteria.

A pattern shift begins on Sunday as an anomalous 500 mb ridge expands across the CONUS, eventually pushing a rare July surface front southward into the area. This boundary, in tandem with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development for both Sunday and Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds remaining the primary concerns. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to differences between deterministic and ensemble guidance, though confidence is increasing for above- average temperatures across the region.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Lingering showers and storms are expected to persist through 02z. Subsequent clearing and calm winds will support the development of patchy fog at MGM, EET, and TCL from 10z to 13z, potentially reducing visibilities to less than 5 SM at times. Additional showers and storms are anticipated Wednesday afternoon as diurnal heating interacts with residual boundaries; therefore, a PROB30 for TSRA has been included for TCL, EET, and BHM where the most confidence exists for convective development.

NOTE: Added AMD NOT SKED for TCL for a communication issue this afternoon.

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FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 10 50 40 50 Anniston 71 91 73 90 / 10 40 30 50 Birmingham 73 92 74 92 / 10 40 30 50 Tuscaloosa 72 91 73 92 / 10 40 20 40 Calera 72 94 73 94 / 10 40 20 50 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 40 Montgomery 74 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 50 Troy 72 93 74 92 / 20 20 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.