textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026

- There is a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms late Saturday afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Above average temperatures expected through much of the upcoming forecast.

- Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1203 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026

Clouds continue to stream north and east, but are starting to erode in the southeast. The shortwave that was progged over the last several days to slide through the area today and into the evening, appears to not be as strong, but is still there. The southerly flow right now also does not appear to be as strong, but increasing. We also do see some light echoes on radar across southern Alabama this morning. So with that said and the current clouds in place, will continue to advertise scattered showers this afternoon and into the evening with this southerly flow. General thunderstorms may not be as scattered but can not be ruled out. This could keep temperatures a few degrees below current guidance but still in the upper 70s to low 80s, with the warmest in the southeast.

For Saturday, the cold front (boundary) will slide south during the morning, with a squall line developing along the front and then accelerating away. The boundary should move into northwest Central Alabama by 2 to 3 pm and then sliding south and east through the afternoon and evening hours. We should also see the activity weaken as the boundary works further away from the front. The CAMS take the boundary on through much of the area, so activity that redevelops on Sunday will generally be in the southern half, and pushing through before the afternoon. This overall timing is supported by most of the global models as well. A few outliers redevelop a stronger boundary Sunday morning north of the I-85 corridor so this will need to be watched as plausible but will continue the forecast on the consensus. Either way showers and storms remain on the high side through Sunday.

The front itself should stall over the area then lift as a warm front, keeping rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday. Look for an increase in southerly flow ahead of the next stronger trough that will slide through Wednesday night into Thursday. Trends continue to slow down on the timing some, so uncertainty remains, but will need to monitored as this system approaches.

16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026

The low ceilings will are slowly lifting but should remain through 19z in the west. Then we will be left with a bkn low to mid level deck around 3500 to 5000 feet. Rain chances will be on the medium side (30 to 50%) Not as sold on the thunderstorm potential but will continue with the prob30 from 21z to 3z at all sites except AUO. Another low-level cloud deck may develop at MGM/AUO near 12z time period.

16

FIRE WEATHER

The warm/moist air mass will persist through the weekend with increased rain chances through Tuesday. A frontal boundary will approach the region, supporting numerous showers and at least low to medium thunderstorm chances over the weekend and into early next week. The front is expected to stall Sunday before lifting northward early next week. Another system moves in Wednesday into Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 59 81 59 73 / 30 50 80 80 Anniston 61 81 61 74 / 30 40 80 80 Birmingham 63 81 62 73 / 20 50 80 80 Tuscaloosa 63 81 61 74 / 20 70 80 80 Calera 61 83 61 74 / 20 50 80 90 Auburn 63 81 62 74 / 30 30 50 80 Montgomery 62 84 63 74 / 20 30 50 80 Troy 61 84 62 76 / 10 30 30 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.