textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging wind is the primary threat.

- Cooler for the first half of next week, with highs in the 60s to 70s.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026

An upper low over the Dakotas will continue moving eastward to the northern Great Lakes region by Saturday night. An associated surface low over Iowa will move northeast in conjunction, making it to Ontario during that same time period. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward into Texas and will slide east Saturday into Sunday. Ahead of this cold front, a line of rain and thunderstorms will reach the Mississippi River across MS/TN by early Saturday afternoon. A severe risk area is currently outlined by the SPC to cover most of Mississippi and much of northern Alabama for Saturday evening. As the line of thunderstorms makes its way into northwest Central Alabama after 5 PM, a damaging wind risk is expected before thunderstorms decay as the line reaches the I-65 corridor overnight. CAMs continue to show potential for CAPE values as high as 1000 J/kg over western Central Alabama, with instability waning with the loss of daytime heating across central and eastern counties. With the surface low well removed to the north, the lack of forcing should lead to a gradual weakening trend toward Sunday morning.

Widespread 1-1.5" rainfall totals are expected across much of Central Alabama Saturday into Sunday. Unfortunately, the lowest amounts will be across southeastern counties that are dealing with more serious drought conditions. Flooding should not be a concern generally, but a few isolated issues may develop.

Rain will clear out of the region by Sunday morning across the northwest and Sunday afternoon across the southeast. Drastically lower dew points will take hold for much of the week. Sunday through Wednesday will feel much more seasonal as a surface high works eastward across much of the eastern United States. Highs will be in the 60s to 70s through midweek, starting to climb again to the upper 70s by Thursday and Friday as higher dew points return from the southwest. This current forecast update calls for rain-free conditions across Central Alabama from Sunday night into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026

Low clouds will gradually expand across the region, with most terminals falling into MVFR or IFR category by 04/10z. Conditions will gradually clear as the morning progresses, before falling once more in the evening as showers and storms move in. Most terminals will carry SHRA, with a few TEMPO groups for TSRA past 05/00z. Additional TSRA probs may be introduced with the 12z package, as this line of storms is expected to continue east into Sunday AM.

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FIRE WEATHER

Widespread rain moves in late Saturday, lasting into Sunday morning. Min RH values will remain in the 40-50% range through the weekend. Drier air in the wake of a cold front will drop RH values into the 30-40% range early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 54 68 41 / 60 90 60 0 Anniston 83 58 69 42 / 50 90 80 0 Birmingham 85 57 69 45 / 70 90 50 0 Tuscaloosa 84 58 71 46 / 70 90 20 0 Calera 84 59 71 45 / 60 90 60 0 Auburn 81 64 69 47 / 50 90 90 10 Montgomery 86 64 70 47 / 50 90 90 10 Troy 83 64 72 47 / 50 90 90 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.