textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 646 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

- Heat: Moderate heat risk for the southwestern areas today, as afternoon heat indices will near 105 degrees.

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the much of the northern half of Alabama Saturday. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Confidence is increasing in elevated rain chances and potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools ahead of an incoming boundary.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a deep trough taking hold across the eastern US while ridging continues to dominate out west. A series of shortwaves will continue to rotate along the periphery of the ridge, leading to low to moderate chances for showers and storms Thursday and Friday. The greatest chances daily will be to the south and west of a boundary lingering across the state. Drier air moving into the region behind this boundary will keep the northern half of the area dry as we wrap up the work week. As we head into the weekend, an upper level shortwave will drop into the Tennessee Valley while pushing another boundary our way. This would warrant medium to high chances for showers and storms through the weekend. Moisture looks to pool ahead of this system with several members of the LREF suggesting PWATs well over 2". Forecast soundings hint at a fully saturated profile with a warm cloud up to 15-16kft. This would suggest periods of heavy rainfall are likely. There are signs of this shortwave being cut off across the southeast and meandering through early next week. This would keep elevated rain chances in our forecast. Details on rainfall amounts and durations will be worked out in the coming days.

Thursday looks to be another fairly uncomfortable day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Continued muggy conditions will warrant a moderate to major heat risk across our southwestern areas with heat indices around 105. Confidence is not quite as high in how long we will see heat advisory criteria for as drier air continues to work in. Therefore, we will hold off on a Heat Advisory for our southwestern areas for now. We will knock off a couple of degrees daily as we head into the weekend as the ridge retreats back west. High temps look to settle into the 80s by Saturday.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

There is patchy, mainly MVFR, fog across Central Alabama this morning, and maybe some isolated IFR. This should clear up to VFR by 14z. Afternoon convection is expected across the SRN counties today with a stalled surface boundary stretched across the mid- section of AL. I have a PROB30 for 21-02z to account for this at MGM. Chances are too low elsewhere to mention. Otherwise, WNW-N winds 5-10kts are expected during the day with mixing. There is a low to medium chance for similar MVFR patchy fog again after 9z tonight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

08

FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in check for the week. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 67 93 72 / 0 0 0 30 Anniston 91 67 91 72 / 0 0 0 20 Birmingham 93 71 93 74 / 0 0 20 40 Tuscaloosa 95 74 94 75 / 10 10 40 50 Calera 95 71 95 73 / 10 10 30 40 Auburn 91 72 91 74 / 10 10 10 20 Montgomery 94 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40 Troy 94 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.