textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated through the week due to recent dryness, low relative humidity values, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected each day this week with no rain chances, causing drought conditions to worsen.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening depicts a fairly active picture out to our north and west as a series of shortwaves progress across the Plains. Upper level ridging in place across the southeast is helping to deflect this activity away from the region. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored just off the east coast, leaving us with a southerly flow. Winds will be breezy at times over the next couple of days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a low pressure system across the Northern Plains. By late Wednesday into Thursday, another H5 shortwave ejects across the Plains and begins to suppress our ridge to the south. This will open a brief window during the day Thursday for a low chance of rain across our NW areas. Confidence is low in this scenario as moisture recovery does not look too impressive. After all, "drought begets drought".

Upper ridging quickly moves back into place, keeping us dry as we wrap up the work week. An upper trough lifts out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday while pushing a cold front our way. This boundary looks to move into the area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, eventually clearing the CWA by the evening hours. Latest guidance is hinting at PWATs ranging from 1.2-1.4" as this front passes through. Therefore, we will hang onto low to medium chances for showers and storms late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Rain chances with this system look a bit more promising despite our ongoing drought conditions as we will see more forcing available. Much drier air quickly filters back into the region as we close out the weekend and head into the work week.

Our warming trend will continue through the work week. Highs each afternoon will generally climb into the mid 80s. Friday looks to be the warmest day as the entire region has roughly a 40-70% chance of exceeding 90F. It's likely that we see some high temp records broken as we close out the work week. To add confidence here, the ECMWF EFI/SOT guidance is strongly hinting at an anomalous heat event for this time of the year. These warm temps and dry conditions will likely lead to worsening drought conditions over the next week.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026

Will continue with the VFR forecast across all central Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Will be on the lookout for some light fog or sct low cloudiness at TCL around sunrise. But otherwise, just scattered high cirrus at most.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern daily as we head through the week. MinRHs on Tuesday and Wednesday will drop into the 25-35% range. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts from 10-15 MPH. Outside of a low chance of rain across our northwest areas, dry conditions will remain in place through the work week. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, which will bring a low to medium chance for showers and storms. It will also lead to increased fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week as much drier air moves back into the region.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KBHM: 89/1981 KEET: 85/2017 KANB: 89/1981 KTCL: 88/2003 KMGM: 89/1972

April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 84 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 85 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 85 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 85 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.