textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 548 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026

- Fall Weather: Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected behind it for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026

This evening the cold front has moved southeast of Central Alabama and extends along the Eastern Seaboard to the Georgia Coast, then southwest across the Gulf. A large ridge stretches across much of Conus with a 1036-37mb center stretched across portions of New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and northeast toward Eastern Nebraska. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds will continue for the remainder of tonight and into the daytime on Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Winds should begin to taper down on Saturday night as the ridge center shifts to over Indiana/Ohio and gradients relax across the Deep South. Cool fall readings are on tap with lows in the 40s for most this week. We could even see a few upper 30s in a few of the colder northern locales and valleys by Sunday night. Highs will be generally in the 60s over the weekend. While overall Eastern Conus ridging continues this week, it does weaken a little. As such, our airmass should begin to moderate as we head through the upcoming week as our flow becomes more northeast to easterly. Look for highs by Monday to be seasonal in the 70s, with 80s creeping back for some by Wednesday. With that said, we will remain rain free with very little moisture available for much cloud cover much less rain.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across central Alabama as high pressure builds in behind the front. Gusty northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are expected at all terminal sites through 00Z as strong cold air advection after 15Z. High confidence in winds decoupling to 5 knots or less between 00Z and 03Z Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

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FIRE WEATHER

A much drier air mass will build into the region this weekend behind a cold front and will persist through the upcoming week. Winds will be strong through much of Saturday afternoon with 20ft winds in the 10-15 mph range and gusts up to 25 mph. RHs drop to the middle 30% range in western and southern portions of Central Alabama, with the rest of the area dropping just below 40%. This keeps us out of critical Red Flag Warning criteria, but conditions are notably dry and windy on Saturday, so outdoor burning is discouraged.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 41 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 66 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 65 45 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 68 45 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 66 45 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 67 48 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 69 47 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 69 46 67 44 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.