textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days due to recent dryness, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air early next week.

- Drought conditions are expected to worsen across Central Alabama though light rain amounts are forecast Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Updated at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026

Broad southwest flow associated with an eastward-moving trough is shown to bring a smaller, low-amplitude shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday. Ensemble data suggests that the bulk of showers/storms left over from today/tonight's southern Plains activity, and any renewed activity on Thursday, will be to our northwest/north; however, some activity may manage to affect a few locations northwest of the 59 corridor. For a majority of Central Alabama, it'll be another seasonably warm and dry day.

A larger, and more powerful, trough will sweep across the U.S. this weekend, sending a front across Alabama Saturday night. Based on model trends, this system has a better potential to bring some rain to a bit more of the state, favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. This certainly won't be a drought-busting rain, though.

Sunday's highs will be near 15 degrees cooler and there is at least a low chance for some communities to reach the upper 30s Monday morning north of a Birmingham latitude. At this time, the wind and humidity forecast Monday morning is not supportive of frost. Temperatures then steadily warm through the rest of the week. 89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Updated at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for Central Alabama terminals over the next 24 hours. The one aside is the low potential for MVFR advection fog to make its way to MGM, from southern Alabama, early Thursday morning; this is not formally included at this time.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire danger conditions shall persist over the next several days due to drought conditions, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times.

MinRHs through Saturday are forecast to be in the 30 percent range though some locations may slip into the upper 20s. Daytime winds will sway from south to southwest near 5-10 mph with infrequent gusts as high as 15-20 mph, light at night.

A front comes Saturday night with showers favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. At this time, locations near and north of the 20 corridor stand the best chance for measurable rain, averaging less than 0.50 inch.

Behind the front, MinRHs on Sunday will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with northwest winds between 10-15 mph and gusts near 20 mph. Winds become lighter from the northeast on Monday and southeast on Tuesday, between 5-10 mph, though MinRHs should be even lower, reaching the lower 20s for many locations.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972

April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925

April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955

April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 85 55 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 85 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 61 85 62 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 85 58 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 86 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 86 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.