textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 457 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026

- Cooler temperatures are expected this week, especially from Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Through next Monday) Issued at 1135 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026

Cool and dry weather is expected again today as the ridging across the region begins to break down. A deep trough is expected to slide southward into the Deep South on Wednesday. Just ahead of this trough, an embedded shortwave ejects through TX/LA and pushes through the Gulf States. Both the shortwave and the main trough will lead to increased rain chances for Central AL Wednesday through Wednesday night. As the precip moves through, temperatures should be well above freezing. The moisture is expected to move south and east of our area before the temperatures take a sharp drop early Thursday morning. The forecast will keep all precip as liquid, though there's a very low chance (<5%) of a few flurries across the northern counties around or just after midnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Thursday will be noticeably cold all day with highs only reaching into the mid 30s to upper 40s. A few of our colder locations may not get above freezing. Wind chills will be in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of the day.

Rain free conditions are expected Thursday through the weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds through the region. There's another trough that quickly moves through Saturday into Sunday, but guidance continues to show little precipitation with that system. Several runs of deterministic guidance try to show winter precip with this secondary trough, but ensembles paint a different story, keeping the probability of any winter precip at <10%. We'll keep monitoring this system for any changes, but will not include winter weather in the forecast at this time.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours with generally light westerly to southwesterly winds. Clouds begin to increase and drop after 6 to 9z from south to north.

NOTE: KMGM comms are not allowing the METAR to go out. AMD NOT SKED has been added until it can be resolved.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected again today with MinRHs in the 20-35% range, especially across the southeastern counties. Westerly to southwesterly winds should remain light at around 3-5 mph. Increasing moisture is expected Wednesday as another front moves through the region with low to medium chances for rain. After that, dry conditions will return Thursday through Friday with RHs dropping into the 20-35% range again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 36 54 24 / 0 0 40 20 Anniston 57 37 55 24 / 0 0 30 30 Birmingham 56 41 54 26 / 0 0 40 20 Tuscaloosa 58 39 55 26 / 0 10 30 20 Calera 58 38 55 25 / 0 10 30 20 Auburn 58 40 56 29 / 0 10 20 30 Montgomery 57 38 59 30 / 0 10 20 20 Troy 58 38 59 32 / 0 20 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.