textproduct: NWS Birmingham
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the low to middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.
DISCUSSION
(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
The weak upper-level trough continues to push off to the east, taking these welcomed rain chances with it. In turn, upper-level ridging is already beginning to establish itself across the southeast. By this time tomorrow, the apex of this building ridge will have firmly established itself over Tennessee, decreasing our rain chances through the week significantly. Rain chances will generally be low (<10%), with any isolated shower or storm being diurnally driven in the afternoon hours.
Afternoon high temperatures will also quickly rebound by Monday, with highs returning to the mid and upper-90s. While afternoon heat index values will generally reach above 100 degrees, no heat headlines are anticipated given the lack of higher humidity. This will be the forecast trend into next weekend, as very little movement is expected from the upper-level ridge over the next five days.
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AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
Under the rebuilding high pressure, VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF period.
AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.
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FIRE WEATHER
Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast past Monday. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by late next week if significant rainfall does not fall by then.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 68 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 68 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 72 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 72 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 71 96 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 71 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 72 96 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 70 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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