textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts possible through Saturday.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 to 2, out of 5, risk for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.

- There is also a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Friday as the cold front works south into the area. The main threat will be damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

The radar is clear at this hour across Central Alabama. We are in between waves. Onshore flow is allowing for a stream of low level moisture ahead of our approaching system. Over the last couple of days, rainfall has been from roughly one quarter of an inch north to up to 2 inches across a good chunk of the southern half of Central Alabama. This rain will set the stage and saturate soils for more rain to add to these numbers for Thursday and Friday when the potential for heavy rain will be greatest and a flood watch continues for much of the CWA. On Thursday the remnants of what was Arthur will move close enough for increased rain coverage as this low moves into Louisiana and Mississippi. Even though Arthur is not organized, it still has tropical characteristics, meaning that there will be a risk Thursday for gusty winds in any stronger convection bands. Also, weak spin up tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Lightning may not be as widespread, but a few embedded thunderstorms may occur at times.

High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves into the area and stalls. This will help to modify the tropical airmass with more thunder expected. A few marginally severe storms may occur as well with just frontal forcing to assist. Some gusty winds may occur. The front is expected to stall somewhere across the midsection of the area on Saturday. The latest guidance is indicating higher QPF as a result of rain chances sticking around for the weekend. Our flood watch may need to be extended into Saturday if this trend continues. By Sunday, an unsupportive upper flow will allow for the stalled boundary to push back northward with yet again more onshore flow. Temperatures will slowly creep back up, and zonal upper flow disturbances enhanced by daytime heating will contribute to diurnal convection for Sunday into Monday. Extended guidance has a low to medium chance of yet another front moving into the Deep South by the end of the extended Tuesday into Wednesday. This system too has a decent chance of stalling with zonal to west-northwest upper flow to only support meager advancement across Alabama by the middle of next week, and it will keep rain chances around.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

Convection has been picking up across our southwestern areas over the last couple of hours. A decaying line of showers and storms is currently approaching TCL.Gusts around 30 knots are likely with this activity. Convection will continue to spread across all terminals through the day with reduced ceilings, vis, and gusty winds likely with any passing shower or storm. Continued with the PROB30 mentions at BHM/EET/TCL and transitioned MGM/AUO to TEMPO groups as confidence is higher further south. Convection will gradually wane late this evening with some lingering showers expected in its wake. Outside of the convection, MVFR ceilings are already in place across all terminals with the exception of AUO where IFR is prevailing. MVFR will persist through the day with all sites dropping to IFR overnight. Ceilings will be slow to improve Friday morning. Southerly winds will gradually increase with gusts from 20-25 knots likely this afternoon.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 82 70 85 65 / 90 80 30 10 Anniston 81 71 84 67 / 100 90 30 20 Birmingham 80 70 85 69 / 100 80 30 30 Tuscaloosa 80 72 85 71 / 100 70 50 40 Calera 81 71 86 69 / 100 80 40 40 Auburn 80 72 82 70 / 100 100 70 40 Montgomery 80 72 84 71 / 100 90 90 50 Troy 80 72 84 71 / 100 90 100 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Chilton-Clay- Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.