textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across northern and western parts of Alabama on Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools ahead of an incoming boundary.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

The leading edge of the trough and cold front will begin to work into the region by tomorrow afternoon, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow. The first round will be sometime during the morning, as a leading shortwave pushes east. The main thunderstorm activity will be in the late afternoon and evening hours, when the cold front proper begins to push into the state. PWAT values will remain very high tomorrow, and many of these storms will be prolific rainfall producers. In the event storms start to train, or storm motions slow down, localized flash flooding can be expected given the high rainfall rates. Thankfully, these areas should be limited in scope, and widespread flooding and flash flooding is not anticipated. The SPC has also maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for tomorrow, with damaging winds remaining the main threat with any strong to severe thunderstorm activity.

As the trough and low pressure continue to drop towards the southeast, it will start to become disconnected from the main trough axis to the north. This now cutoff low will linger across the Ohio Valley into the middle of next week, keeping elevated rain chances in the forecast through Wednesday. This will also aid in keeping afternoon high temperatures suppressed, with highs expected to stay in the upper-80s and low-90s. Unfortunately, this closed low will become absorbed back into the upper-level flow by Thursday, as a ridge builds off to the west. This should allow for afternoon highs to climb back into the low to mid-90s once more headed into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026

The stalled front will slowly lift north through the evening hours, allowing for showers and storms to expand across the region. This first round of activity will generally decrease past 01/03z, before additional rain moves in closer to 01/12z. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow as a cold front approaches the region, with all terminals currently carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA past 01/20z. Otherwise, reduced CIGS are expected overnight, with high confidence in MVFR/IFR CIGs past 01/06z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

A warm and humid air mass will help keep fire weather concerns in check into next week, with MinRH values expected to remain above 45 percent through Wednesday. Heavy rain is also expected at times over the weekend. Some drier air begins to work in from the east by next Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 92 70 88 / 50 90 80 30 Anniston 72 90 72 87 / 40 80 80 10 Birmingham 74 92 72 87 / 50 50 70 20 Tuscaloosa 74 92 71 88 / 70 40 50 20 Calera 73 93 71 89 / 50 40 70 10 Auburn 74 86 74 87 / 20 70 60 40 Montgomery 74 93 74 91 / 40 50 60 20 Troy 72 90 73 90 / 40 50 50 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.