textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 658 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026

- Heat & Humidity: A significant warming trend will continue through the middle of next week, with heat indices expected to approach 100 degrees this weekend, and rise well above 100 degrees for multiple days next week. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk over the majority of the region, and Heat Advisories will be needed over multiple days.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026

As expected, the most convective activity this afternoon has been relegated to the far southeast counties of the CWA, where the best moisture profile is currently present. PWATs of over 2 inches remain across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama, while 1.6 to 1.7 PWATs are present farther to the northwest. The 12z KBMX sounding this morning measured plentiful amounts of dry air aloft above 700mb, which has contributed to an overall lack of convection for the vast majority of Central Alabama today. Only a few isolated showers have developed from what appears to be orographic lift of parcels up and over the higher terrain locations in our eastern and northeastern counties. Any leftover convection will quickly weaken after sunset this evening with warm and muggy overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Rain chances will remain relegated to our north over the weekend, as ridging builds over the northern Gulf Coast. Mid-level shortwave activity tracking westward from Arkansas through Tennessee and into the southern Appalachians will pose a Marginal severe threat as well as a flood threat for those locations. Meanwhile, as drier air advects into the Deep South from the west and southwest at 700mb we'll remain mostly dry and hot through Sunday, with only small rain chances across far eastern Alabama. We'll start to turn the oven up as we go into next week as an expansive 596 decameter ridge is forecast to develop just to our northwest by Monday, and expand over much of the Ohio River valley by Tuesday of next week. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that we'll need to issue Heat Advisories for multiple days, especially for Monday through Tuesday. Probabilities of seeing 100+ degree heat indices are 80-100% across a vast majority of the state during those days. By Wednesday, rain chances may actually go up for the southern half of the CWA as disturbances track around the periphery of the ridge. Scattered shower and storm chances will remain in the forecast each afternoon through the end of next week, but the dangerous heat will remain anchored over much of the eastern CONUS with the ridge advertised to strengthen close to 600 decameters by global guidance.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 24 hour forecast period at all sites thanks to ridging. There are only very low chances for convection, but these chances are too low to pinpoint at any specific locale to include. Otherwise, off and on high cirrus will be noted at times. Winds will be light and variable winds overnight and from the west-southwest at 5-10 kts during the day Saturday with mixing.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered rain chances will persist for some through Saturday, but conditions generally become less favorable for wetting rains through the weekend. Heat and humidity will be the main story over the weekend and into the middle of next week as heat indices approach and top 100 degrees. Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as the humid air mass builds in.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 92 73 93 / 0 20 20 10 Anniston 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 10 10 Birmingham 75 92 75 94 / 0 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 75 92 75 94 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 75 94 74 96 / 10 0 10 10 Auburn 73 90 74 91 / 20 20 10 10 Montgomery 74 92 74 92 / 20 20 0 10 Troy 73 92 73 93 / 20 20 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.