textproduct: NWS Birmingham
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures are expected for most of the next seven days.
DISCUSSION
(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
Dry northwest to northerly flow aloft persists through the week, between ridging over the Southern Plains and troughing along the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern CONUS maintains a dry continental air mass, while a surface low will only move slowly east of the Outer Banks. Northeasterly flow trajectories at the surface result in cool nights and temperatures near or only slightly above average. Towards the weekend, the low pressure system over the western Atlantic exits, while a cutoff low forms near Cuba. This allows the mid-level subtropical ridge to build eastward, but a strengthening CAD wedge in the wake of the Atlantic system helps to offset this, maintaining pleasant temperatures.
32/JDavis
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
With high pressure continuing to expand across the region, VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. Winds will mainly be out of the ENE.
Note: Fall seasonal issuance of the KASN Talladega TAF began on 10/18 00Z and will continue through 10/28 18Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
The dry air mass will persist through the upcoming week, with 20ft winds stabilizing to near 5 MPH during the day, and peak gusts between 10-15 MPH at their strongest. The abundance of dry air aloft will allow for thorough mixing, with MinRH values generally dropping to 25-30% into the middle of next week. Given these low MinRH values and drying fuels, fire weather concerns will remain medium for most of next week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 72 43 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 73 42 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 71 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 74 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 71 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 71 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 74 44 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 72 43 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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