textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect for Saturday afternoon and evening across the southern third of the state. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026

This evening surface high pressure is situated from Texas northeastward to Ohio behind a cold front stretched from the Carolinas to off of the Alabama Gulf Coast and back to near the southern tip of Texas. The satellite picture is anything but clear as thick cirrus clouds cover much of the Gulf Coast States. This is thanks to an upper low over the northwest part of Mexico that will send perturbations out from the low and through the flow into Alabama. For tonight into Friday morning, cirrus will be the result. As we head into Friday afternoon into Friday night, this low will push eastward and into West Texas, the surface ridge over the Deep South will weaken and push east, and low level moisture will begin to return. This will allow for the upper disturbances to bring showers and thunderstorms back into the area from the west southwest late Friday into the weekend. On Saturday, the upper low is expected to open up over Texas becoming more of a shortwave being absorbed into the main flow. During this time, disturbances will continue to flow from it into Central Alabama on Saturday. Across the southern counties, for Saturday afternoon, a few strong to marginally severe (1 out of 5) storms may occur, helped by daytime heating perpetuating into the evening. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

Rounds of shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday as overall moisture increases ahead of our next frontal system and more disturbances move through the upper flow with the decaying shortwave through the longwave trough and associated low over Eastern Canada. By Monday morning guidance shows the surface front through, but shower and thunderstorm chances lag behind during the day until the longwave upper trough moves past Alabama. Conditions clear and cool by Monday night with rain-free conditions expected for the latter part of the forecast through next Thursday.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through most of the day as the front remains to our south and surface high pressure builds across the region. Late in the period, around 03z-06z, increasing low cloud are expected with a weak shortwave riding along the coast. This will lead to increased rain chances across all sites except BHM. Right now, I've included a 30% probability of thunderstorms with this activity, but probabilities increase just after 06z and there's at least a low chance those impacts move in just before 06z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues to TCL due to intermittent observations

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

After a brief rain-free period through Friday morning, rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms will return late Friday and continue through the weekend. Clear weather should return by Monday night and persist for a few days. Min RH values are likely to remain above 40% Friday and above 50% over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 73 52 78 55 / 0 50 40 30 Anniston 74 55 77 57 / 0 70 50 30 Birmingham 74 58 79 60 / 0 80 40 30 Tuscaloosa 75 58 79 60 / 0 80 50 30 Calera 75 57 80 59 / 0 80 50 30 Auburn 73 59 76 62 / 0 80 80 50 Montgomery 73 59 77 61 / 10 70 80 40 Troy 73 59 77 62 / 30 70 70 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.