textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 816 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026

- Heat & Humidity: A significant warming trend begins late this week; heat indices are expected to approach or exceed 100 degrees daily from Friday through early next week. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk over the majority of the region.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026

An MCV is currently visible on radar imagery spinning over Sumter County. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature, and a mid-level shortwave trough, remains in south-central Mississippi and is on course to stay south of our forecast area. We will maintain chances for additional thunderstorm development across our southwestern counties this afternoon as instability continues to increase. A few storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, but the overall severe risk seems very low. A second mid-level impulse will support additional scattered thunderstorms tomorrow through early Friday morning. Thereafter, ridging will begin to amplify over the Eastern CONUS, and there is high confidence that the pattern will trend much drier and hotter. Heat stress will become a concern over the weekend and into early next week with heat indices ranging from 100-105 degrees across the area by Monday as temperatures and humidity increase. If the forecast stays on this path, we will likely be talking more about a Heat Advisory soon.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026

All sites are currently VFR. There is a low to moderate chance for SHRA at MGM and AUO tonight, but only high enough to mention for MGM tonight. Better chances will be for all during the day (especially in the afternoon) with heating. A few TSRA may be noted after 21z. Otherwise, there is a moderate chance for MVFR cigs to develop tonight after 9z and continue through 18z for the W/S TAFs. A mention is noted for TCL, MGM, and AUO at varying times.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Daily chances for showers and storms continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Drier and warmer conditions move in over the weekend. However, ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 45% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 64 89 70 90 / 10 20 10 30 Anniston 66 88 70 89 / 10 20 10 30 Birmingham 68 88 71 91 / 10 20 20 20 Tuscaloosa 69 88 72 91 / 20 30 20 10 Calera 67 90 70 93 / 20 30 20 20 Auburn 69 86 71 88 / 20 40 20 40 Montgomery 69 86 71 90 / 30 40 20 30 Troy 68 84 70 89 / 30 50 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.