textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1119 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

- Thunderstorms: A brief pattern shift will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the weekend. Some of this rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026

This evening, an upper shortwave continues to dig southwestward out of an upper low over Eastern Canada and has deteriorated the ridge across the Southern US. This will give just enough northwest flow to push a surface front close to Alabama to stretch from Arkansas to Kentucky and the Maryland coast by early Friday as the parent associated surface low moves eastward across and out of Quebec. Rain chances increase significantly for Friday into the weekend for all of Central Alabama. The main energy from the surface low will push eastward into the Atlantic on Friday with the boundary pushing back well to the north, giving way to a moist southerly fetch into the state. In the upper levels, positively tilted troughing shifts closer to Alabama with ample disturbance activity expected for Friday and Saturday across Central Alabama. While the probability for widespread flooding is low, QPF amounts of 0.5 to around 1.5 inches are likely with up to 2 inches of rain may occur over this time frame with a few locally isolated higher amounts.

By Sunday, the trough weakens as the upper ridge builds across the eastern half of the Southern US. While there is still a medium chance for activity to occur, it should be more scattered in nature with lower amounts overall. By Monday, and into the middle part of next week, the upper ridge is expected to strengthen further across East Central Conus. This will yield a weak easterly flow into Central Alabama and more diurnally enhanced isolated convective activity once again for the remainder of the forecast with low QPF amounts.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026

There is a low probability for a few storms over the next couple of hours in the southern areas (MGM/AUO). Otherwise, there is a medium to high chance for low IFR stratus to move/develop from the south into most of the TAF sites, except maybe not as far north as BHM. Arrival times will be from 9-12z and could last as late as 17-18z. Convection chances increase for Friday with shortwave activity expected across the Deep South. The best chances will be in the afternoon.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at TCL due to missing observations.

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FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. Rain chances will increase for Friday and into this weekend. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up during next week if significant rainfall does not occur over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 71 92 70 88 / 10 50 70 90 Anniston 71 89 71 86 / 10 60 60 90 Birmingham 73 90 71 88 / 10 70 60 90 Tuscaloosa 73 90 71 91 / 20 60 50 80 Calera 72 89 71 88 / 20 70 70 90 Auburn 73 87 71 86 / 20 70 40 80 Montgomery 73 89 71 90 / 20 60 50 80 Troy 71 89 70 91 / 20 70 40 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.