textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026

- Rain showers will continue through early Saturday morning, followed by a clearing sky through the rest of the day.

- Cooler conditions are forecast this weekend, including morning low temperatures in the 40s.

- There is a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. This system will need to be monitored for a potential severe weather risk.

DISCUSSION

(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026

A northern stream longwave trough will swing southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions early Saturday afternoon while a weak cold front currently across the Tennessee Valley will move southeast through the forecast area during the day on Saturday. High chances for showers will continue overnight and into Saturday morning, followed by drier and cooler conditions through the afternoon with gradual decreasing clouds from the northwest with humidity values decreasing. Lows are expected around 50 degrees tonight, followed by highs around 70 on Saturday. Some clouds look to persist across the far southern counties late Saturday into Sunday as another shortwave moves east over the Northern Gulf Coast, but dry conditions will persist areawide.

A lower amplitude zonal flow pattern will become more established over the area by Monday before an upper low opens into a positive- tilted longwave trough over the Southwestern states Tuesday. An increase in mid-level amplitude will result as downstream ridging builds in response with a few shortwave disturbances moving over the area from the southwest late Tuesday into Wednesday. Surface high pressure will become centered well east of the area by Tuesday while low pressure develops across the Central and Southern Plains at this time. Medium chances for showers are expected during the day Tuesday and overnight Tuesday night. Temperatures will moderate through midweek with highs in upper 70s by Monday and into the low to mid 80s by Wednesday while overnight lows will increase into the upper 50s to low 60s by Wednesday morning.

Deep longwave troughing will move east over much of the Plains Wednesday while a surface cold front moves southeast into the Mid- South Region with low pressure centered across Northeast and Central portions of Texas. Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected during the day Wednesday and persisting through Wednesday night ahead of the surface cold front. Surface low pressure will move northeast along the front overnight into early Thursday morning as the front pushes southeast through the forecast area, bringing an end to the shower and thunderstorm activity. Intensity of the storms will largely depend on the amount of available instability as more than sufficient wind shear and upper-level forcing appears present for organized convective activity per the current available global guidance during this time frame.

The longwave trough will swing east over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions early in the day Thursday while surface high pressure builds into the region from the west. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s Thursday while overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s across much of the area through late week.

05

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026

As of 05:40z/12:40 am CT, radar showed a large area of rain showers across the Gulf Coast region, associated with a mid- level, shortwave trough, with VFR to MVFR ceilings and visibility. This activity should come to an end toward 12z-15z. There is a low chance of IFR ceilings at AUO-MGM. Thereafter, clouds will clear from west to east. From late morning to late afternoon, winds will become northwesterly between 10-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots, easing at sunset.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

A high chance for showers will continue to affect much of the area into Saturday morning, with best chances across the southern third of the area. Drier conditions return for Sunday through Tuesday with RH minimums in the 30 percent range Sunday and Monday afternoons. Medium chances for showers on Tuesday, followed by a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 40 70 43 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 69 43 70 46 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 69 45 71 49 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 71 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 71 45 73 47 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 69 47 72 49 / 50 0 0 0 Montgomery 71 44 72 46 / 40 0 0 0 Troy 70 44 72 45 / 60 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.