textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026 - Above normal temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming week.

- Increased rain chances for the end of the week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1202 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026

GOES satellite imagery reveals some lingering low level stratus across the western half of the state early this afternoon. As a result, temps are running a bit cooler than expected. High temps have been nudged down a few degrees to reflect this trend. Otherwise, another pleasant day is unfolding with high temps reaching the mid 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies. We saw some patchy dense fog this morning across the region. The latest HREF probs are not too excited about fog again Wednesday morning with only a 10-20% chance of vis less than 1 mile. With that said, wouldn't be surprised to see some fog develop as the latest NAM12 and RAP13 are hinting at condensation pressure deficits down to 5- 10mb along with narrowing dewpoint depressions and light winds.

The upper ridge begins to flatten on Wednesday as a trough lifts out of the Four Corners region. Cloud coverage will be on the rise through the day as moisture begins to pool ahead of our next cold front. This influx of moisture and a few pulses of H85-H7 energy will warrant a low chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Beyond Wednesday, our thinking regarding our next system has not changed much with the latest suite of guidance.

95/Castillo

Previous discussion: (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 909 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026

The center of the high pressure system is expected to shift east of our area through the day on Tuesday. There's not really anything impactful weather wise Tuesday into Wednesday other than the warming trend in diurnal temperatures. As the upper level ridge begins to flatten Wednesday with the moist southerly flow, expect increasing clouds and a low chance for light showers across the area Wednesday evening and night.

The main story synoptically speaking is the deep trough across the High Plains and Northern Rockies that sets up around the middle part of the week. Out of this trough, several low pressure systems are expected to eject into the Great Lakes region. These have shown to have little predictability from run to run in the model guidance. The system Thursday into Friday has shown the most consistency so far, ejecting into the Great Lakes and pushing a frontal boundary southward into the Mid-MS and Ohio Valleys on Friday. Latest runs have shown the front stalling out across the TN Valley and Central AL as the parent low pressure system occludes Friday into Saturday. This would lead to increased rain chances beginning as early as Thursday evening and persisting through Saturday. Beyond that, there's very high variability in the subsequent pattern for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A couple of main scenarios that appear to have the highest likelihood of playing out based on current trends - First, at about a 40-50% chance, the frontal boundary remains stalled across the area Friday into Saturday with the trough axis finally shifting southeastward and pushing the boundary out of our area by Sunday morning. Second, at around a 30% chance, another low pressure system develops as the main trough axis moves eastward. This system rides along the stalled boundary, lifting it northward slightly before pushing a stronger cold front through the region. This scenario would lead to the potential for thunderstorms across Central AL and would bear watching more closely. Because there's been such high variability with the evolution of this trough and all the associated systems, the forecast is fairly broad at 40-60% chance for rain and low chance of thunder through the weekend. I suspect we'll see higher probabilities start working into the forecast for more narrow time periods in the next few days.

For the start of next week, the trend still appears to be cooler (more seasonable for February) compared to this week. However, with the uncertainty lingering in terms of the trough placement, guidance is showing a 10 degree spread in both the low temperatures and high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. For now, the forecast has lows generally in the upper 20s to 30s with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026

Low level stratus has been slow to lift this morning. MVFR is hanging on at MGM/AUO but should clear out shortly. Otherwise, VFR prevails through this evening along with southerly winds from 10-12 knots. MVFR returns by 07-08Z and will persist through the end of this TAF cycle. Introduced a TEMPO for IFR around sunrise based on the latest HREF probabilities.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

We should see MinRHs persist in the 40-50+% range through the next several days with the next chance for widespread wetting rains not coming until the end of the week into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 52 70 58 77 / 0 10 20 20 Anniston 52 71 58 77 / 0 0 20 30 Birmingham 55 72 60 78 / 0 10 20 20 Tuscaloosa 54 74 59 79 / 0 0 10 20 Calera 52 74 58 79 / 0 10 20 20 Auburn 53 71 59 77 / 0 0 20 30 Montgomery 52 75 59 82 / 0 0 20 30 Troy 52 73 59 82 / 0 0 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.