textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

- Major to Extreme Heat: A significant heat risk is expected to persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week, with heat indices reaching 105 to near 110 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect.

- Convection: Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon could become strong with gusty winds being the main threat.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 221 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

This afternoon, surface high pressure is present across the Northern Gulf. Today is a prime example that ridging doesn't always equal rain-free as we are very hot, humid, and unstable across Central Alabama. In the upper levels, a ridge is centered just to the north across the Southeast US with weak flow across Central Alabama. At the surface, little change is expected through the short term (today through Saturday). However, aloft, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward. This should help to suppress overall convection more toward isolated, and definitely reinforce the heat over us. In the near term, any storms that do pop up this afternoon and evening could grow with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall with our unstable airmass.

Outside of any storms, the heat will be the main story. We continue with a heat advisory for all of Central Alabama for today through Sunday. There will not be any major features to help to cool the area off, so look for a high probability of heat advisories to be continued through the beginning of next week. The majority of areas should see max heat indices of 105 to 109. While there could be an isolated 110 plus at times, coverage of higher indices should be isolated. There is a medium to high chance that some areas (especially west) could see triple digit high temperatures by Saturday into the beginning of next week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are currently in place across all terminals and are likely to persist through this cycle. Convection is beginning to wane across our southeastern areas. However, there is a low chance for additional development through the evening as outflow boundaries linger. Due to low confidence, opted to not include in the TAF at this time. There is also a low chance for patchy MVFR fog early Saturday morning for those that received rain today. Another round of convection is likely across our southern areas tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, have introduced a PROB30 for TSRA at AUO/MGM.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 45 percent through this afternoon. As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through late week, with the activity becoming more confined to southeastern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to increase if rain-free conditions persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 76 98 76 98 / 20 10 0 0 Anniston 75 95 74 95 / 20 20 0 10 Birmingham 77 97 76 98 / 20 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 77 100 76 100 / 20 10 0 0 Calera 76 97 75 98 / 20 10 0 0 Auburn 76 92 75 92 / 20 40 10 20 Montgomery 77 97 76 98 / 20 30 10 10 Troy 75 95 74 95 / 20 50 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.