textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1255 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025

- Cold and windy conditions expected Sunday. Temperatures will fall through the day with wind chills in the 20s for the northern half of Central AL through the afternoon.

- Dangerously cold temperatures expected Sunday night through early Monday morning with wind chill values dropping to 10-15 degrees (with a chance at a few single digits far north).

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1255 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025

Guidance is showing a return of some clouds from the S/SW tonight with a weak surface boundary approaching from the NW and likely stalling tonight across the area and fizzling out. Mild temps today into Sat will help for a few rain showers to develop ahead of a more potent 2nd cold front. A 1040mb ridge will slide SEWD out of Central Canada on Sat. This will allow for this cold front to move through C AL late Sat into Sun. Behind it on Sun, a strong 1044 mb ridge will slide from MN/IA into ERN Conus with much colder temperatures possible for the first part of next week. Confidence is high for some very cold temperatures and wind chills for Sun night into early Mon, including some teens across the northwest 2/3 of C AL for lows Mon morning. Winds will stay up as well with tight gradients behind the front as the cold airmass presses SEWD. This will mean low wind chills for much of the night. There continues to be a low to medium chance that we could have need of our first cold weather advisory for the season as we get closer to Sun. (cold wx advisory criteria is for wind chills: 0-10 NRN counties and 5-15 SRN counties).

Conditions moderate upward as we progress through next week as the ridge weakens a tad over the SE US Tue and slowly shifts into the Atlantic by mid week. The temperature roller coaster will be in full swing with 40s Mon for highs, 50s Tue, and 60s to lower 70s by Thu. Rain chances return by the end of the extended ahead of yet another system.

08

Previous discussion: (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1103 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025

Slightly warmer conditions expected today and Saturday with highs reaching into the 60s. Enjoy that while you can - a weak boundary that is stalled across Central AL will lead to increasing rain chances on Saturday, but we're not expecting anything widespread. A much stronger cold front pushes southward into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, leading to continued rain chances. Rain amounts will generally be light with less than 0.25" expected.

The more impactful story in this is the very cold continental polar air mass that is behind the cold front. This will easily be some of the coldest temperatures we've seen so far this season. Temperatures will generally continue to fall through the day on Sunday with wind chills in the low 20s across the north and upper 30s in the south for much of the day.

Monday won't be much better with low temperatures in the morning in the mid-teens to low 20s for all of Central AL. Wind Chills will run generally in the 10-15 degree range during the early morning hours. High temperatures on Monday will run in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Temperatures begin to moderate Tuesday into Wednesday as the center of the high shifts more to the east, leading to slightly warmer southerly flow. We'll have increasing rain chances on Thursday with the potential for our next system, but guidance has fluctuated quite a bit on the timing, so the probability of rain

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025

A VFR TAF forecast is expected for the next 24 hours. SW winds 5-10kts are expected this afternoon with only minimal cirrus today. Cloud cover will begin to increase from the S/SW tonight into Sat ahead of our next system. Will be watching as some of the cigs may be MVFR/IFR to our S/SW tonight into Sat morning. As of now, I'm not confident enough to add any cigs to the current TAF forecast.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Rain-free conditions expected this afternoon with increasing rain chances late Saturday ahead of our next cold front. This cold front is expected to move through Central Alabama Saturday night through Sunday with a very dry air mass behind it. Northerly winds are expected Sunday with the frontal passage. Look for 20 foot winds 10-15 mph along with gusts up to 15-20 mph and RHs in the 30-40% range, though temperatures will remain in the 30s-40s. Low RHs will be the story for Monday as the dry air mass settles into the region, but with much lighter winds. High temperatures will be in the 40s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 35 63 29 39 / 0 10 40 0 Anniston 40 65 34 41 / 0 10 50 0 Birmingham 41 63 32 39 / 0 10 50 0 Tuscaloosa 41 64 34 42 / 10 10 50 0 Calera 41 65 33 43 / 10 10 60 0 Auburn 45 65 44 50 / 0 10 60 10 Montgomery 47 66 44 52 / 10 10 70 10 Troy 47 68 47 56 / 10 20 60 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.