textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026

- Medium to high (50-80%) of rain expected this afternoon and evening across Central AL.

- Sharp drop in temperatures expected Thursday with wind chill values as low as the single digits Thursday morning and wind chill values only reaching into the lower 30s in the north and upper 30s in the south. - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1114 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026

A deep trough will move east of the MS River today, with a low pressure over the Great Lakes and an associated frontal boundary moving through the state this afternoon and early night. Low level flow from the west and southwest will help with some moisture advection, with models showing PW values around 0.7-0.8 inches through the afternoon ahead of the boundary. Climatology shows this close to the 85th percentile for this time of year, so would expect light to possibly moderate showers with this boundary.

The deep trough will allow for strong northerly winds to move very dry and cold air quickly into the northwest before midnight. The dry air will continue to move southeast through the few hours after midnight, when all rain should move east of the state. A tight pressure gradient will set up over the state early Thursday and remain through the day, causing gusting winds up to 20 to 25 mph. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 20s in the north to the upper 20s in the south. With the wind, the wind chill values will hover in the low teens in the north and the upper teens in the south.

With the breezy winds expected through the day on Thursday, temperatures in the afternoon should reach into the upper 30s in the far north and lower 40s through central and southern parts of the area, but the wind chill will keep values into the 30s across most of the area and barely out of the 20s across the north. By Thursday night, the trough will move east of the state, with the pressure gradient (and winds) beginning to weaken. The coldest temperatures in the east, with values in the low 20s, will feel closer to the actual temperature with those lighter winds.

Another low pressure develops and brings a boundary towards the area for Friday night and Saturday. Right now, it looks like the moisture may not be able to rebound quickly enough for anything more than showers, so kept thunder out of the forecast. Models are starting to latch onto a shortwave feature that moves across the base of this trough as it moves east over the southeastern US. There is a very large level of uncertainty in regards to temperatures and moisture with this shortwave, so not advertising any sort of snow accumulation at this time. If the trough slows down, we may not see as cold temperatures, which may limit anything other than rain. And with the dry air in place from the northwest flow, confidence is low there will be enough moisture to coincide with the colder air. Will watch for more updates.

At the beginning of the next work week, high pressure, dry weather, and cold temperatures will prevail.

24

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026

Showers are ongoing across the region early this evening as a frontal boundary pushes south. This activity will push east of the area over the next few hours. MVFR ceilings will accompany this activity through about 03Z. VFR then returns for the remainder of the period. A breezy north-northwesterly wind will develop late this evening in the wake of the front. Gusts around 20 knots will be likely through Thursday afternoon. Breezy conditions will help limit fog development overnight. Winds will gradually weaken towards the end of this TAF window.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Rainy conditions expected through the evening across the area with drier air moving in behind the cold front for Thursday into Friday. Min RHs will approach or drop below critical values for most of the area Thursday and potentially in the eastern counties for Friday. Another couple of systems will move through Friday night through Saturday but confidence is low on how much moisture will move into the area, so only light rain may be expected. Dry conditions return Sunday through Tuesday with Min RHs once again approaching or dropping below critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 20 39 19 52 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 22 39 21 53 / 30 0 0 0 Birmingham 24 40 25 53 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 24 42 25 56 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 22 42 23 55 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 25 40 25 54 / 30 0 0 0 Montgomery 27 43 23 59 / 20 0 0 0 Troy 27 43 23 58 / 30 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.