textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025

- There are medium chances (30-60%) for dense fog to develop across the southern half of the area again Saturday morning.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected into the weekend, with highs running 15-20 degrees above average, and lows running 15 degrees above average.

- A front is currently forecast to sweep across the region on Monday, swinging temperatures back to below normal to start next week. Rain chances will be high.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025

Overall, not much change needed to the previous forecast reasoning. Low clouds and fog will develop once again tonight with slow clearing on Saturday morning. Not as confident on the fog scenario so will await additional guidance on the need for an advisory. There will be a very small chance at seeing a brief rain shower in the northeast tonight and generally before Midnight. Rain chances are only 20 percent and very little if any accumulation is expected.

Changes from guidance includes raising low temperatures Sunday night as cloud cover and southerly flow will keep temperatures warmer in the time period covered by Sunday night low temperatures. Also lowered highs on Monday from guidance with some of the highs actually occurring before sunrise in the south. It will for sure not be a typical diurnal temperature swing ahead and behind the front. Much cooler temperatures will be in place through Thursday.

16

Previous discussion: (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025

Calm, cool, and foggy conditions are expected again through the morning hours. Based on the latest obs and satellite imagery, the Dense Fog Advisory was expanded to include our eastern and northeastern counties where visibility has already bottomed out. A light breeze may limit how much fog we see across our western counties, but left them in the Advisory for at least patchy dense fog. We likely won't see much sun today due to a passing shortwave which will contribute to general cloudiness, but some sun may break through the clouds this afternoon. Nonetheless, temperatures will be unseasonably warm again today with highs in the lower to mid 70s, trending a couple degrees warmer over the weekend.

A strong cold front is forecast to arrive on Monday with a sharp drop in temperature expected to follow. Rain amounts are on the lower end, likely due to an overall lack of mid-level moisture with the system, with amounts generally less than 0.25" expected. There will also be little to no instability and weak dynamics, so severe weather is not expected. Dry weather returns for the middle of next week behind the front, and cold weather is anticipated. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s for most of Central Alabama with lows in the 20s Tuesday night, then a slow warming trend will bring temperatures closer to seasonal norms by Thursday, but still below average.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025

OVC skies are still in place this evening. This cloud cover is likely to linger overnight and could hamper widespread fog development from occurring, but some drops in visibility are still expected after 06Z, just likely not as widespread as previous nights. Regardless, ceilings will fall to IFR criteria area-wide by 10-12Z. Ceilings will slowly rise through the morning hours with MVFR to VFR conditions expected by the afternoon. There will be a light southwesterly breeze around 5 kts during the day tomorrow.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

An overall rain-free forecast is expected to continue through the weekend with persisting drought conditions. However, minRH will remain well above critical thresholds through the week with south- southwesterly 20ft winds around 5 to 8 kts. There is a low potential for a brief rain shower in the northeast tonight, before Midnight, but very little, if any accumulation is expected. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances on Monday in addition to much lower RHs thereafter.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1255 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 26: KBHM: 76/2021 KEET: 75/2016 KANB: 78/2015 KTCL: 75/2021 KMGM: 82/2015

December 27: KBHM: 77/2015 KEET: 77/2015 KANB: 76/2015 KTCL: 79/2015 KMGM: 80/2016

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 75 58 75 / 20 10 10 10 Anniston 58 75 58 75 / 20 10 10 10 Birmingham 60 75 60 75 / 20 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 60 75 58 76 / 10 10 10 0 Calera 59 76 58 76 / 10 10 10 10 Auburn 61 74 60 74 / 10 10 10 10 Montgomery 61 77 60 77 / 10 10 10 10 Troy 59 76 58 76 / 0 10 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.