textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 604 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

- Major Heat Risk: High confidence in dangerous heat with heat indices reaching 105-110 daily from Wednesday through the weekend; Heat Advisories are expected

- Convection Trends: A typical summertime pattern continues with 20-40% rain chances through Wednesday, decreasing thereafter as the upper ridge strengthens.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals upper level ridging beginning to take shape across the southeast. An upper level trough can be seen well to our north, which is helping guide an area of convection just south of the Great Lakes. The weak ridge axis in place across the south will slowly shift west over the next several days, eventually expanding and strengthening late this week and into the weekend. This will allow for temps to steadily warm up through the week with highs eventually settling into the mid to upper 90s for most of Central Alabama. Continued humid conditions combined with these temps will bump heat indices into the 105-110 degree range. Heat Advisories will be likely daily starting Wednesday. The latest ECMWF EFI hints at unusually warm temperatures for us over the weekend, generally 10 degrees above normal for mid August. This will lead to a major heat risk for Central Alabama late this week and over the weekend.

This pattern will promote a typically summertime convection regime over the next couple of days with low to moderate (20-40%) chances for showers and storms through Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, we will see reduced rain chances as the upper ridge takes control and slightly drier air spread across the region.

Otherwise, patchy fog is expected early Tuesday morning as dew point depressions narrow and condensation pressure deficits call to 2-5mb. Locations that received rain earlier this afternoon and evening will be most likely to see reduced visibilities out the door Tuesday morning.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

High pressure will strengthen today, maintaining winds at or below 7 knots. Despite the ridging, typical summertime diurnal convection is expected this afternoon through 01Z, though with less coverage than Monday. Storm confidence remains highest at AUO; PROB30 groups are included for BHM and EET from 20Z to 01Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally above 50% through the work week. Slightly drier air arrives over the weekend, bringing minRHs down into the 40-50% range. However, winds will remain light. Low to moderate rain chances continue through the week. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 92 74 93 74 / 40 20 50 10 Anniston 90 73 90 74 / 40 20 40 10 Birmingham 91 75 92 76 / 40 10 40 10 Tuscaloosa 92 75 94 76 / 20 10 30 0 Calera 91 74 93 74 / 30 10 40 10 Auburn 88 75 89 76 / 40 20 40 10 Montgomery 93 75 94 76 / 20 10 30 10 Troy 93 74 93 74 / 10 10 30 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.