textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026

- Thunderstorms: Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances expected over the weekend.

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk through the weekend, transitioning to a major heat risk early next week with heat indices potentially reaching 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026

Broad ridging will remain in place across the Southeastern CONUS today with the main upper level trough remaining well to our northeast. This should keep rain chances more isolated today across Central AL with mostly sunny skies. A weak tropical disturbance slides into the Eastern Gulf Friday into the weekend and is still showing low chances (<20%) of development. At the least, this should increase the rain chances for the eastern half of Central AL each afternoon Friday through Sunday as this system begins to be absorbed into the upper level trough along the East Coast over the weekend.

As we go into next week, the upper level ridge shifts slightly eastward and could build into Central AL as the low level ridging remains in place. This would lead lower rain chances and a warming trend. Guidance suggests temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s by Tuesday into Wednesday with heat indices reaching into the 100-105 range. However, this may be overdone a bit in the forecast this far out. We'll keep heat impacts as a message for early next week and if temperatures continue to trend into the mid 90s as they are now, we could reach heat advisory criteria toward the middle of next week.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026

Low level ridging is in place today with the weak upper low moving out of the area. This should lead to mostly sunny skies and VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Daytime mixing could bring down some gusty winds at times through the afternoon, but this is expected to diminish overnight and into early tomorrow. We'll likely see an increase in winds and potentially a few gusts towards the end of the period (16-18z), but confidence isn't there yet to include as prevailing, so I'll leave mention of gusts out of the TAFs for tomorrow at this time.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next several days across Central AL. Increasing tropical moisture associated with a weak disturbance in the Eastern Gulf is expected across the area over the weekend, which will increase rain chances each afternoon. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 90 72 91 / 0 40 10 60 Anniston 72 90 72 90 / 10 40 10 50 Birmingham 74 91 74 93 / 10 40 10 30 Tuscaloosa 74 92 74 93 / 10 20 30 20 Calera 73 94 73 95 / 10 40 20 30 Auburn 74 90 74 90 / 10 30 10 50 Montgomery 74 92 74 93 / 10 30 20 40 Troy 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.