textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026

- There are low chances (20-40%) for wintry precipitation across our southern and eastern counties Saturday night. - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026

Below normal temperatures behind a front have set up for today into tonight with surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes SWD across the MS River Valley and into SE TX. The flow into AL will turn around Fri as the ridge quickly shifts EWD ahead of another cold front. Temps will rebound in response on Fri back into the 50s across C AL and even possibly a few 60s in the SRN counties. There will not be much recovery time and overall moisture will be limited for shower activity ahead of the front for Fri evening into early Sat. with less than a 1/4 inch of QPF (all rain) expected.

A secondary upper low will move across the ERN half of Conus Sat night into Sunday with an active upper pattern as a colder airmass moves into place across AL. Here is where our lower confidence comes into play. Guidance continues to diverge with the forming/ or not of a surface low across the NRN gulf late Sat and moving NEWD. With this colder air in place, a low would mean a better chance for wintry precip for Sat night into Sun across SE part of C AL. The latest guidance run, while it is still in disagreement, is leaning toward lower chances for wintry precip/amounts across the SE portions of C AL. A further S/E development of this low, or not as strong of a low in future runs would contribute to further decreasing in our confidence and threat for snow. ATTM, we still have mention in deterministic grids for potential of snow. Will be closely watching the next couple of guidance runs as even less than 1/2 inch of wintry precip with lows in the upper 20s would be impactful for travel. After early Sun, look for a cold/dry/below normal temp forecast for the first half of next week.

08

Previous discussion: (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026

The cold front is now east of the area with the mid-level trough axis denoted by a thin line of decaying showers across Southeast Alabama. A breezy and cold northwest wind will persist through the day while temperatures struggle to warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s. The wind chill will make temperatures feel about 5-10 degrees colder.

An active polar jet will ensure that our weather stays interesting this week as a parade of upper-level lows rotate from Canada across the Great Lakes region through the weekend and into next week. Winds shift back to the south on Friday as our next cold front moves across the Lower MS Valley. This front will pass through Central Alabama Friday night, but moisture will likely struggle to increase at such short notice given the significantly drier airmass that will precede the front. There should be enough forcing to squeeze out some scattered showers, but rain amounts will be very light.

Models continue to point towards a secondary trough which will rotate southeast around the base of the upper low and across the Upper Midwest states on Saturday. There's been an increasing trend towards Gulf low development by Saturday night due to this secondary trough which would bring potential for winter weather along the Gulf coast due to the cold, post-frontal airmass that will be in place. It's questionable on how much moisture return will be achieved in such a short period of time, and there's still much model discontinuity between the strength and track of the low. Nonetheless, probabilities have been gradually increasing towards minor snowfall accumulation across southeastern portions of the state, including locations near and south of I-85, as this system lifts across Georgia towards the Mid-Atlantic region. This scenario is not unrealistic, but forecast confidence remains low at this time.

The forecast will remain on the cold side through the first half of next week as we remain under persistent west to northwest flow. Lows Sunday night through Wednesday night will range from the teens to 20s while daytime highs will also stay well below average.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the south-southwest during the mid to late morning hours with gusts around 20 knots likely through Friday afternoon.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will periodically drop near or just below critical thresholds this afternoon with 20ft winds gusting at times to 15 to 20 mph from the northwest, but recent rainfall will help to limit the fire risk. Rain chances increase Friday night as another cold front moves through the area, then minRH falls back into the 30-35% range behind the front on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 19 53 34 49 / 0 0 70 10 Anniston 22 54 37 50 / 0 0 70 10 Birmingham 25 54 37 49 / 0 0 70 10 Tuscaloosa 26 58 35 49 / 0 0 60 0 Calera 24 56 37 52 / 0 0 60 10 Auburn 25 54 42 54 / 0 0 50 20 Montgomery 24 60 44 54 / 0 0 60 20 Troy 24 59 44 56 / 0 0 40 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.