textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday evening through early Saturday morning across western portions of Central Alabama.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday night.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026

While convection is expected to return on Fri, much of the day will be rain-free except for a low chance of a few stragglers well ahead of the main expected convection. Temperatures will continue to creep back upward with overall moisture slowly increasing in advance of our next system. The latest guidance has the upper low over SK in Canada lingering longer over this area through Sat before slowly moving EWD into MB Canada on Sun into Mon. As it does so, shortwave activity will rotate around the main low with low to moderate chances of impacts affecting the Deep South. C AL will transition into a wetter pattern starting late Fri. Storms that develop to our W across the Lower/Mid MS River Valley are expected to spread into AL slightly later, now during the evening, and into the overnight hours. While the better energy and instability Fri is expected to be to our W, there remains a low (1 out of 5) chance that some of the activity could still be strong enough by the time it arrives into WRN AL for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms to occur. The trend does indicate a higher probability that deterioration of the activity will win out. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Sat as a surface boundary moves into the region. While guidance continues to attempt to get the front through C AL Sat night, the system will likely stall across the SRN part of the state on Sun and quickly move back NWD. The upper levels do not have a strong NW flow to support the surface front.

By Mon, the associated surface low will continue NEWD toward the Upper Midwest US and toward the Great Lakes by Tue. This will drag the front back toward the Deep South on Tue. Ahead of this front, there is a low to medium (2 out of 5) chance of strong to severe storms for Mon night into early Tuesday. The better energy with this next wave continues to trend across the Mid MS River Valley, but C AL will likely still have impacts with a few strong to severe storms. The best chances will be across the NW Counties. Chances are decreasing that the front will make it back through the area with upper zonal flow lingering through at least the middle of next week across the Deep South. Chances are increasing for a wetter and messy pattern to be in place for the first half of next week thanks to stalled boundaries and periodic shortwave activity.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 18 hours, with the exception of MGM, where low-level stratus to the south and southwest may nudge into the area and IFR cigs may briefly materialize around 11-13z. Mid-level cloud cover is likely through much of the day tomorrow, with winds southerly to southwesterly. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow evening after 1z, with PROB30 for TSRA introduced at TCL and PROB30 for SHRA at BHM, EET, and MGM. Medium confidence in rainfall at these terminals, with low probability for thunder. Lower confidence as of this update for rain before 6z at ASN and AUO.

KTCL TAF will have AMD NOT SKED appended to it due to comms issues.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will continue to be the main story for one more day on Friday for some as we near critical RH values during the afternoon. Winds should remain generally below critical speeds, but elevated fire concerns are still present due to the dry fuels and low humidity values. There will be a shift in the pattern as we head into the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms daily through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 84 58 78 55 / 10 70 90 30 Anniston 84 60 79 57 / 10 60 90 40 Birmingham 84 62 79 60 / 10 70 90 40 Tuscaloosa 84 62 80 61 / 20 80 90 30 Calera 85 61 81 59 / 10 60 90 40 Auburn 84 62 79 62 / 0 30 80 60 Montgomery 86 62 82 62 / 10 40 80 50 Troy 85 60 83 61 / 10 20 80 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.