textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026

- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms though the week, with increased rain chances Saturday into Sunday.

- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026

Today through Friday, high pressure will prevail off the east coast with the state on the western side of that high and under the influence of south to southeasterly flow. This will bring enough moisture and warm air advection for diurnal convection this afternoon. CAMs have been under performing the afternoon coverage, so expect much more than what is shown. Today, wind profiles are light in the mid and upper levels, with CAPE between 1000-2000 j/kg. Any storms that develop could be more pulse-like, producing moderate rain rates and gusting winds. Though the severe storm potential is low, strong storms are possible.

By Thursday afternoon, a low pressure will move northeast across the Great Lakes, weakening as it moves north. A boundary associated with that low will move towards the area, stalling to the west. The high pressure off the east coast will move slightly northward, putting the area in a more easterly, and drier, low level flow. Instability and forcing should be lower, which may limit convection through the afternoon. Right now will keep chances low for Thursday and Friday afternoon, with acknowledgement of a stray shower or two, should enough instability be present.

With this warm air advection, temperatures will slowly warm each day, and rise into the mid to upper 80s across much of the area by Saturday.

A low pressure develops over the Plains by the end of the work week and moves east, bringing a boundary across the southeast. This boundary will move slowly across the state sometime late Saturday into Sunday as the parent low moves to the northeast over the Ohio Valley. Models have maintained their consistent, though disagreeable, timing with some models showing the rain beginning early Saturday afternoon through early Sunday, and others showing rain remaining on a mostly Sunday time frame. Will lean towards the difference with anticipation of that high pressure slowing progress, and show rain moving into the state during the evening Saturday, remaining through the afternoon on Sunday.

Instability should be low, and combined with weak forcing from the slow moving boundary/low moving north, any strong to severe thunderstorms should be limited. PW values are near 90th percentile for this time of year, and shear is 30-40 kts. Expect storms, with a scattered to widespread coverage, and gusting winds to be the main threat. Rain totals are averaged to be around 1-1.5" across the almost two day, Saturday through Sunday, period. A few higher totals could be possible in areas that have training storms, and also in areas in the northwest where the shear and forcing will be slightly stronger. Though flooding is not anticipated at this time, will need to keep an eye on any slow draining and urban areas for those training, stronger storms for any isolated flooding concerns.

Behind the boundary Sunday night, northwest flow will bring cooler temperatures with highs dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s through the beginning of the work week. Low temperatures could be as low as the low 40s during this time as well. A slow warming trend will then prevail through mid work week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026

Diurnal convection will continue through 1 to 3. Went ahead and added in tempo at a few of the sites based on radar trends. Winds will gust around and during activity over a TAF site. Activity should weaken after sunset, with weak winds and clearing skies overnight. Diurnal activity should be possible again Thursday, though activity should be at the end of this next period.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED at KMGM due to observations not being transmitted.

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FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast, with higher chances this afternoon. More widespread rain returns Saturday into Sunday. Fire weather concerns will remain high, especially in areas that do not receive rain through the end of the week. MinRH values will generally linger in the 40% range, before increasing ahead of the front come Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 85 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 Anniston 60 84 61 83 / 10 10 0 10 Birmingham 62 85 64 84 / 10 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 61 86 63 85 / 10 10 10 10 Calera 61 86 62 85 / 10 10 0 10 Auburn 62 83 62 82 / 20 0 0 20 Montgomery 60 86 61 85 / 20 0 0 10 Troy 60 85 60 84 / 20 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.