textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through next week.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather through this afternoon and into the early evening. Threats include a brief tornado and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026

Unsettled weather continues through the weekend as southerly flow continues to stream moisture into the area from the gulf. We do have some limited instability over the area this morning just along and ahead of the line of showers and storms, as a shortwave disturbance slides north and west of the area. Enough shear is around to result in small spinny showers/storms that we will have to keep an eye on through the afternoon. Looks like the best chances will be along and east of I-65 this after 2 pm this afternoon and west of I-65 through 2 pm. Confidence on any widespread severe activity remains very low, but isolated activity remains plausible, especially in the southern zones. As this main line moves slowly east, severe potential really drops off and overall coverage will drop. While rain chances cannot be totally ruled out after sunset across Central Alabama the best chances appear to be in the far east through Midnight. Another impulse will try to slide into the area after Midnight, but model inconsistency really muddles the picture. The consensus, and really most plausible scenario, is that the impulse stays across the south and then begins to spread into the southeast near sunrise. I have adjusted PoPs and weather on this trend from guidance this afternoon.

Saturday will be another day in which there is a high probability of rain chance but confidence on the highest coverage is low. The southerly flow continues so there will once again be plenty of moisture in place to help generate showers and storms during the day. Current forecast trends and consensus take the impulse across the south during the morning and really increase coverage in the afternoon. At the same time a second impulse will try to slide across the north. Most of the guidance has this as well, so it certainly is plausible. The models are having difficulty with the coverage in the afternoon as one camp wants to make the northern impulse the dominant feature, thus higher chances in the north, while another camp prefers the south. Given the overall flow being from the south (unless showers and storms could cut us off from the moisture, which looks less probable at this time), I am going to lean toward the southern impulse for better coverage with activity increasing to the northwest as the afternoon progresses.

This pattern pretty much remains the same throughout much of next week with higher than normal rain chances and overall coverage during the day. In fact it looks like this pattern may persist through the end of May. Confidence on any severe weather after this weekend will be evaluated daily but chances remain minimal at this time after this afternoon.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms along a line this afternoon. Most of the activity will be east of TCL by 19z and then east of BHM and EET by 21z. MGM may continue to see coverage through 22z and AUO through 00z. LIFR conditions can be expected with the storms. Later this evening, low level moisture should remain high with another night of showers sporadically over central AL. Ceilings should likely drop, though confidence is low on how much. Another round of showers will be plausible in the south after 9z and then activity could potentially slide north before 18z Saturday. The better rain and storm coverage on Saturday will be just outside of this 24 hour cycle.

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FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce daily showers and thunderstorms this weekend and through next week. These instances of precipitation and lack of low RH should keep fire weather conditions at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 82 61 83 / 70 70 40 80 Anniston 66 82 63 83 / 60 70 40 80 Birmingham 67 83 65 83 / 40 60 40 90 Tuscaloosa 68 84 66 83 / 40 60 40 90 Calera 67 84 65 84 / 40 60 40 80 Auburn 68 82 67 84 / 60 80 60 80 Montgomery 68 83 66 85 / 40 70 40 80 Troy 68 84 66 86 / 60 80 40 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.