textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026

- Medium to high (40-80%) chances for showers through the afternoon on Wednesday, highest chances north.

- Cooler temperatures behind the front have trended a little cooler behind the front for Wednesday night into Thursday. - High (80-90%) rain chances are expected over the weekend, especially late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a low probability at this time for thunderstorms, at least for the southern half of the area.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026

The light rain associated with the front has moved into the area. Echoes are not reaching the ground yet as cloud decks are still quite high. As we move through the night and into the morning, these decks will lower and rain will begin to reach the surface. MUCAPE remains low with this system so thunder is not really expected for much of the area, but there is a minimal chance especially in the southern counties just after 12 PM. Activity should decrease in aerial coverage through the early afternoon. Otherwise, rainfall will remain light with generally a tenth to a quarter of inch expected, with the highest totals in the north.

The front still appears to clear the area by the afternoon with some freezing temperatures possible across the northern portions of the area by Thursday morning. Small rain chances return Friday with a few disturbances in northwest flow aloft and low-level warm air advection.

Saturday through Monday:

The next southern stream shortwave will move across the south over the weekend. Still getting mixed guidance with one grouping showing an open trough, while another grouping is a closed off low. Will continue to hedge the thinking to more of a southern open trough as it swings through the region. Showers may begin Saturday as the warm front lifts northward, followed be a line of showers and some storms late Saturday night/Sunday morning. The southern track of the shortwave and surface low shown by the majority of ensemble clusters/deterministic models typically suggests surface-based instability remaining confined closer to the coast. We will need to keep an eye on the exact track as a further north trek would result in more instability. While we continue to monitor, probabilities for severe weather remain fairly low at this time, with instability mostly showing up behind the convection near the upper low center.

16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026

Light rain has been spreading across the region through the night. MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely across all terminals through the morning as this activity continues. -RA comes to an end this afternoon as a cold front slides through. Southwesterly winds this morning shift to the north in the wake of the boundary, generally staying under 10 knots. Clear skies and lingering low level moisture will set up ideal conditions for fog development late tonight. While guidance isn't picking up on this yet, went ahead and added a TEMPO group for MVFR vis as a start.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Showers move through the area through the afternoon along a cold front with 20ft winds becoming northerly. The front has trended stronger resulting in drier air moving in. RH values may drop below 25 percent for a few hours Thursday afternoon but winds will be light. Another round of rain and perhaps storms will move through over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 64 34 61 37 / 80 0 0 0 Anniston 65 34 62 37 / 70 0 0 0 Birmingham 64 37 62 40 / 60 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 67 37 65 39 / 40 0 0 0 Calera 68 37 65 37 / 50 0 0 0 Auburn 70 40 65 40 / 50 10 0 0 Montgomery 74 41 67 39 / 40 10 0 0 Troy 75 44 68 41 / 40 10 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.