textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through Thursday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM Thursday.

- Thunderstorms: Portions of the region are under a Slight Risks (Level 2 of 5) today and Thursday, with damaging winds being the primary hazard if storms do become strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

Thunderstorms are currently developing across the region, with the SPC afternoon update including an upgrade into a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for today and tomorrow. The overall thinking here hasn't changed much, but the confidence level has been slowly increasing regarding thunderstorm scope and coverage. Under a very unstable airmass, conditions are primed for damaging winds associated with microburst activity. Storm coverage today could include most of the region, with coverage tomorrow shifting more into our north zones.

Thankfully, the main axis of high pressure that has been pushing these disturbances west will begin to break down into Friday. This will leave the flow aloft rather messy, with the weather through the weekend being mostly dictated by the flow at the surface. Afternoon highs are still going to be very hot, with the heat advisory remaining in effect until 9 PM tomorrow. With that being said, another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Friday, but the scope of that one will be evaluated with the forecast package tonight, or tomorrow morning. Heat index values appear to drop slightly by Saturday, so additional heat headlines here remain to be seen, but temperatures will continue to be very hot regardless.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will also become less organized over the weekend, mainly attributed to the lack of upper-level support. Instead, rain chances will favor the more scattered, diurnally driven activity we're more used to seeing during this time of the year.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

Additional afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated today, as the region remains on the south fringe of a stout upper-level ridge. As such, most terminals will carry TEMPO groups through the afternoon for TSRA. Expect rapid drops in conditions during this time, with IFR VIS likely. This activity will generally diminish past 02/02z, with VFR conditions expected area-wide otherwise.

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FIRE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions are expected into the weekend, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The main axis of rain activity will shift to the northern half of Central Alabama today and Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms and humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 76 97 75 97 / 20 30 20 30 Anniston 75 96 74 96 / 20 30 20 30 Birmingham 77 97 77 98 / 20 30 10 20 Tuscaloosa 77 96 77 97 / 20 20 10 20 Calera 76 99 75 100 / 20 20 20 20 Auburn 75 94 75 95 / 20 10 10 10 Montgomery 75 96 75 96 / 20 0 10 10 Troy 74 95 73 96 / 10 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.