textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming week.

- Increased rain chances for the end of the week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 909 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026

The center of the high pressure system is expected to shift east of our area through the day on Tuesday. There's not really anything impactful weather wise Tuesday into Wednesday other than the warming trend in diurnal temperatures. As the upper level ridge begins to flatten Wednesday with the moist southerly flow, expect increasing clouds and a low chance for light showers across the area Wednesday evening and night.

The main story synoptically speaking is the deep trough across the High Plains and Northern Rockies that sets up around the middle part of the week. Out of this trough, several low pressure systems are expected to eject into the Great Lakes region. These have shown to have little predictability from run to run in the model guidance. The system Thursday into Friday has shown the most consistency so far, ejecting into the Great Lakes and pushing a frontal boundary southward into the Mid-MS and Ohio Valleys on Friday. Latest runs have shown the front stalling out across the TN Valley and Central AL as the parent low pressure system occludes Friday into Saturday. This would lead to increased rain chances beginning as early as Thursday evening and persisting through Saturday. Beyond that, there's very high variability in the subsequent pattern for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A couple of main scenarios that appear to have the highest likelihood of playing out based on current trends - First, at about a 40-50% chance, the frontal boundary remains stalled across the area Friday into Saturday with the trough axis finally shifting southeastward and pushing the boundary out of our area by Sunday morning. Second, at around a 30% chance, another low pressure system develops as the main trough axis moves eastward. This system rides along the stalled boundary, lifting it northward slightly before pushing a stronger cold front through the region. This scenario would lead to the potential for thunderstorms across Central AL and would bear watching more closely. Because there's been such high variability with the evolution of this trough and all the associated systems, the forecast is fairly broad at 40-60% chance for rain and low chance of thunder through the weekend. I suspect we'll see higher probabilities start working into the forecast for more narrow time periods in the next few days.

For the start of next week, the trend still appears to be cooler (more seasonable for February) compared to this week. However, with the uncertainty lingering in terms of the trough placement, guidance is showing a 10 degree spread in both the low temperatures and high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. For now, the forecast has lows generally in the upper 20s to 30s with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026

VFR conditions should persist through the period at EET, BHM, MGM, and AUO. TCL will feature potential MVFR vis and IFR cigs overnight as low clouds and foggy conditions may develop after 8z. This should mostly clear by 13-15z.

12

FIRE WEATHER

We should see MinRHs persist in the 40-50+% range through the next several days with the next chance for widespread wetting rains not coming until the end of the week into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 41 70 52 71 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 44 71 52 73 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 48 70 55 73 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 47 71 54 75 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 46 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 10 Auburn 46 69 53 71 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 45 72 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 45 72 52 74 / 0 0 0 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.