textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025

- There are medium to high chances (60-80%) for dense fog to develop across our southern counties again Friday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued and may need to be expanded with later updates.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected into the weekend, with highs running 15-20 degrees above average, and lows running 15 degrees above average.

- A front is currently forecast to sweep across the region on Monday, swinging temperatures back to below normal to start next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025

Is it Christmas Day or Groundhog's Day? I feel like we are just repeating a broken record in regards to the forecast. For tonight and again Friday night, we will remain trapped in a fetch of low level moisture along with multiple inversion. This should allow for the advection to slide on in from the south-southwest east night. There is some concern of how far north the worst visibilities go. There is currently a weak shortwave sliding across the north, with another shortwave by the morning. We could have just enough wind with the shortwave to keep the north from getting socked in. For this reason we have only issued the fog advisory for the south, but will need to continue to monitor for any expansion needed.

Friday will pan out much like this morning. The low clouds/fog will burn off by 9 to 10 am and then the sun will warm us back into the 70s, near record temperatures once again. We will continue to see unseasonably warm temperatures through the weekend. There could be a few showers around in the north Friday night into Saturday morning, but confidence is low that measurable precipitation will occur. Timing of the front on Monday has actually been a little bit more consistent so models appear to be finally getting a better picture of the the airmass and big airmass changes behind the front.

16

Previous discussion: (Through next Wednesday) Issued at 1149 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025

A foggy Christmas morning is in store for many of us. A zone of coastal fog is visible on night fog satellite imagery, and HREF probabilities are indicating high chances (70-80%) for the fog to develop inland during the pre-dawn hours as far north as the Birmingham metro. A Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect through 10 AM for the southern half of the forecast area, and we will watch trends to see if any counties need to be added to the north of the current Advisory area. Otherwise, ridging and associated high pressure across the region will contribute to an anomalously warm Christmas Day with highs in the mid to upper 70s expected to occur each day through Sunday. There will be a mix of sun and clouds during this time.

Our next chance of rain is set to arrive on Monday as an upper-level low moves east across Canada and the Northern CONUS, reaching the Great Lakes region at the beginning of next week. This system has trended slower, and PoPs are now primarily focused on Monday with some rain possible in the northwest as early as Sunday night. A strong cold front will pass through the area and temperatures will take a sharp turn in the opposite direction with highs and lows forecast to be well below normal on Tuesday.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025

The widespread dense fog has just about eroded at all sites. A low deck is sliding south and east as well. This should only impact the northern TAFs. MVFR conditions should be gone by 21 to 22z. VFR conditions through 6z with just some mid to high level clouds. Southerly flow continues tonight, so a repeat of fog advection is expected. Not extremely positive it will be as dense across the north, but will certainly impact MGM/AUO/TCL and EET with at least IFR conditions after 9z if not LIFR.

16

FIRE WEATHER

A rain-free forecast is expected to continue through the weekend with persisting drought conditions. However, minRH will remain well above critical thresholds through the week with southwesterly 20ft winds around 5 to 8 kts. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances on Monday in addition to much lower RHs thereafter.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1255 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 25: KBHM: 78/2016 KEET: 79/2016 KANB: 78/2015 KTCL: 80/2016 KMGM: 82/2016

December 26: KBHM: 76/2021 KEET: 75/2016 KANB: 78/2015 KTCL: 75/2021 KMGM: 82/2015

December 27: KBHM: 77/2015 KEET: 77/2015 KANB: 76/2015 KTCL: 79/2015 KMGM: 80/2016

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 53 74 57 76 / 0 10 20 10 Anniston 54 72 58 75 / 0 10 20 10 Birmingham 56 73 59 76 / 0 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 54 73 57 76 / 0 10 10 0 Calera 54 73 57 76 / 0 10 10 10 Auburn 55 71 58 73 / 0 10 10 10 Montgomery 54 75 58 76 / 0 10 10 10 Troy 52 74 57 76 / 0 0 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Friday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry- Pickens-Pike-Sumter-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.