textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday, with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall possible in the strongest storms

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026

A rather dreary start to the day across Central Alabama as low level clouds and light rain and drizzle have been common across the region. This trend will continue through Wednesday as a low pressure system meanders across the Southeast. We will see an uptick in activity during the late morning and afternoon hours as we destabilize. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely with activity waning during the evening hours. Any storm that develops will be capable of producing gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

Our pattern begins to change by Thursday as the low shifts off to our west as ridging builds in across the southeast. This will lead to a more typical summertime pattern for Thursday and Friday, with a medium (40-60%) chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms daily. The evolution of the ridge remains in question over the weekend. Signs point to an upper trough digging south while suppressing the ridge to our south. This would lead to increased rain chances across our eastern areas. For now, we will carry low to medium chances as confidence is low in this weekends upper level pattern.

Temperatures will continue to warm through the week with highs rebounding back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the work week. As a result, we will see a moderate heat risk for most of Central Alabama daily. Temperatures over the weekend will be highly dependent on the evolution of the aforementioned upper ridge and trough. If the ridge remains in control, highs will climb into the mid 90s, introducing a major heat risk over the weekend. However, temps would remain in the upper 80s to low 90s if the trough wins the battle. Regardless, we will need to continue to practice proper heat safety as we head through the remainder of the summer.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026

Thunder chances will slowly decrease over the next few hours, with thunder probabilities removed from FM groups by 15/02z. However, low clouds are expected again overnight, with all terminals seeing IFR/LIFR conditions past 15/06z. Conditions should slowly mix, with skies returning to VFR category between 15/16-18z as the closed low continues to shift west. Thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon, but coverage will be best along and north of I-20. Here, PROB30 groups will be introduced past 15/20z for TSRA.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

/44/

FIRE WEATHER

Moist conditions will persist through mid-week, keeping MinRH values well above critical thresholds. Widespread rainfall is anticipated as a weak system remains over the region, precluding any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 87 70 88 / 40 50 20 50 Anniston 70 86 70 87 / 40 50 20 50 Birmingham 70 87 71 88 / 40 50 20 40 Tuscaloosa 70 86 71 89 / 40 40 20 30 Calera 70 89 71 91 / 30 40 10 30 Auburn 71 86 72 88 / 40 30 20 30 Montgomery 70 89 71 90 / 30 20 10 20 Troy 68 88 70 90 / 30 20 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.