textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

- Periods of showers are expected throughout today across central Alabama with a few thunderstorms afternoon into evening.

- A gradual warming trend will commence this weekend with above- normal temperatures likely heading into Christmas.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

Today:

A shortwave moving across the northern Gulf will result in isentropic lift atop the cool air mass at the surface. This will cause scattered showers across central Alabama this morning, with a potentially more concentrated batch of activity just to our southeast, closer to the mid-level speed max.

Ascent from an approaching deep trough over the central U.S., and its front, will result in additional spells of showers this afternoon and evening. Guidance continues to show a small swath of weak MUCAPE just ahead of the front, which could support a few thunderstorms as it moves across afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings show a veered/sheared wind profile, though characteristics of the instability profile are meager, especially at the low levels, along with somewhat misaligned dynamics; thus, severe weather is not anticipated with this system.

Friday & the weekend:

Fair weather is forecast on Friday and Saturday, initially cooler on Friday but trending milder on Saturday.

A mid-level impulse scooting across the Tennessee Valley region should cause a period of increased cloudiness with a few light showers overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Next week:

Broad ridging from Mexico to the Gulf is forecast to amplify with its axis shifting eastward. This pattern of positive height anomalies will cause above-normal temperatures for much of the CONUS. For central Alabama, probabilities are high for temperatures in the mid 60s and medium for temperatures in the low 70s heading into Christmas, perhaps past it by a few days, too.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

VFR conditions are in place as of 06z Thursday. IFR ceilings are forecast to envelop all central Alabama terminals around 15z-18z, followed by a medium to high chance of LIFR ceilings afternoon into evening. Periods of showers will occur throughout today with a few thunderstorms afternoon into evening. Winds will be from the southeast this morning, south this afternoon, and then northwest by late evening as a front arrives.

89^GSatterwhite

FIRE WEATHER

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical thresholds over the coming days. Of the next few days, the lowest afternoon RHs should occur on Saturday and Monday across the east half of central Alabama, generally in the lower 30s.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today/Thursday with periodic slight-chance opportunities for parts of the region next week, otherwise fair.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 40 61 34 50 / 30 90 80 0 Anniston 44 62 37 52 / 30 90 80 0 Birmingham 46 62 37 50 / 40 90 80 0 Tuscaloosa 47 64 37 53 / 50 90 80 0 Calera 45 64 36 54 / 50 90 80 0 Auburn 48 61 43 55 / 20 90 70 0 Montgomery 46 64 42 56 / 50 90 60 0 Troy 47 64 44 56 / 40 100 60 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.