textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026

- Persistent Heat: Above normal temperatures continue into this weekend, with high temperatures reaching as high as the middle 90s to near 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended or strenuous outdoor activities.

- Rain Chances: Low end rain chances return starting Friday afternoon continuing into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026

A large upper ridge is currently stretched from Ohio to Texas and centered over Arkansas this afternoon continuing to suppress convection across Central Alabama. By Friday, the ridge should shift a little bit further to extend from Illinois to Mexico and be centered over North Texas. This shift will occur in conjunction with a bit of energy breaking off over the Western Atlantic from the main northern upper flow and becoming a closed low over Florida. The low should slowly nudge westward over the short term and then help to push and degrade the ridge. This will transition our weather pattern and finally yield a return to some, at least low, rain chances. We will have one more day of rain free conditions with minimal cloud cover along with hot temperatures.

As the upper low moves closer to us, low rain chances will return by Friday afternoon assisted by daytime heating. Initially, this weekend, overall moisture will be limited, so QPF amounts are low. For Sunday into Monday, guidance brings the upper low further westward over the Northern Gulf Coast. This will begin to allow for slightly better moisture to filter into the state. Low to medium chances for isolated to scattered convection will occur but with still only meager rainfall amounts for a lucky few. On Tuesday, guidance weakens/deteriorates the low. Diurnal pop chances continue through mid week and the end of our forecast ahead of an approaching surface front/boundary. Unfortunately, overall moisture continues to be limited ahead of this system with only minimal rainfall amounts forecasted. So, over the next week, no drought busting rainfall is expected.

As far as temperatures are concerned over the next week, the warmest day will be on Saturday. Temperatures will be hot with heat indices as high as 100-104 at times. I am not confident enough to issue a heat advisory for Central Alabama just yet. If the guidance trend continues, one may be needed for Saturday afternoon for portions of the area.

08

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours across Central Alabama with easterly flow into the area around a Mid Atlantic to Deep South surface ridge. No convection is anticipated with 5-10 kt winds with mixing and fair weather cumulus expected. Winds will taper down after sunset to light/variable to near calm overnight.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend is forecast to average between 30 to 40%. Shower and thunderstorm chances are unlikely through Friday, but low chances will return this weekend in the eastern portions of Central Alabama and for all by early next week. Winds will remain light through the next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 97 72 97 / 0 20 20 10 Anniston 69 95 71 96 / 0 20 20 20 Birmingham 72 97 74 97 / 0 20 20 10 Tuscaloosa 70 100 73 101 / 0 20 20 10 Calera 69 97 72 98 / 0 20 20 20 Auburn 68 95 72 95 / 0 20 20 30 Montgomery 68 95 72 97 / 0 20 20 30 Troy 66 95 70 96 / 0 10 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.