textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026

- Highest rain chances will remain across southeast Central Alabama through Sunday, with passing showers and thunderstorms expected to develop each afternoon.

- A hotter and drier pattern is forecast to return across the Deep South by the middle and end of next week. Temperatures slowly return to the mid 90s by Wednesday and perhaps dangerous levels once again by Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026

The short-term weather pattern will be heavily influenced by an upper-level shortwave trough currently tracking at a slow pace along the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a prevailing northerly flow will facilitate the steady advection of drier, cooler air into the northern portions of our forecast area, effectively limiting moisture availability in that region. Consequently, the highest PoPs over the next 12 to 36 hours will remain strictly confined to the southern portions of Central Alabama, with a focus on the southeastern counties where moisture levels remain higher. While diurnal instability will prove sufficient to support convective development, the presence of weak vertical wind shear suggests that storm organization will be limited, keeping the overall severe threat low. However, a conditional threat for wet microbursts remains a concern from the Calera area southward the I-85 corridor, specifically contingent on the development of enough localized surface-based instability to fuel downdrafts. In the far southern section, expect to see scattered, slow-moving convective cells developing throughout the afternoon hours.

Looking ahead, model guidance shows improved agreement regarding the initial handling of the stubborn upper-level low. A broad, high-amplitude ridge is projected to build and establish a significant east-west axis stretching from Arkansas eastward to the Carolinas by early next week. This ridge will ultimately force the cutoff low to be steered westward by the prevailing tropical easterlies toward the Mississippi River, effectively diminishing its influence on our regional weather. We maintain moderate confidence (60%) that this developing pattern will successfully suppress daily precipitation chances to levels below climatological normals, while simultaneously elevating afternoon high temperatures. As a result, we may need to monitor the situation for the potential issuance of additional Heat Advisories.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the area this afternoon. We are beginning to see cumulus development, though precipitation remains to our south. Confidence is low to moderate regarding the timing of convective initiation; therefore, we have limited VCSH inclusion to MGM and AUO. We will amend the forecast if convective activity becomes more organized after 21Z. Winds will remain light and variable through the forecast period. Guidance suggests low ceilings and patchy fog will develop tonight. The lowest ceilings are expected at AUO and MGM, while EET and TCL may see scattered low clouds and patchy fog.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

With relatively high humidity and light winds, there are no fire weather concerns over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 69 92 71 91 / 0 10 10 20 Anniston 69 91 70 90 / 10 20 20 30 Birmingham 70 92 72 91 / 0 20 10 20 Tuscaloosa 71 96 72 94 / 0 20 10 20 Calera 70 92 72 91 / 10 20 20 20 Auburn 71 87 72 88 / 30 40 20 30 Montgomery 72 93 72 93 / 30 30 20 20 Troy 70 90 70 91 / 40 40 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.