textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through next week.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Friday, May 22nd from late morning to early evening. Threats include a brief tornado and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026

A pattern of unsettled weather will continue over the next several days, with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day into next week. Deep-layer southerly to southwesterly flow will remain in place adjacent to a stalled front, pumping Gulf moisture across Alabama to keep conditions warm and humid.

For today, a Level 1 of 5 Marginal risk is in place for the potential of damaging winds or a brief, low-end tornado. Bulk shear of 25-35 kts will promote organized storms capable of briefly sustaining weak updrafts, along with 1200-2000 J/kg surface-based CAPE and 0-3 km SRH in the 100-200 m2/s2 range. These numbers support the notion that cells may become strong and briefly rotate. While tornadoes are not necessarily expected, potential for a brief tornado or two exists and should be watched closely. Meager mid-level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0 C/km should make updrafts hard to maintain over time and limit any hail threat. The main corridor of concern looks to be from late morning to early evening for most areas of Central Alabama northwest of I- 85. Latest CAMs indicate activity waning after 7 or 8 pm this evening before more showers and storms return Saturday morning into the evening.

An upper low looks to build in briefly early next week over East Texas, reinforcing southerly flow and keeping elevated rain and storm chances going into mid next week. Beneficial rainfall will begin to add up over the next 5-7 days as showers and storms continue to work through the region.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026

Cloudiness continues through the next 24 hours, with periods of showers and thunderstorms associated with a stalled front. There could be enough low level moisture for MVFR ceilings through the early morning, though the cloud cover may limit this, so confidence is low. Friday will have scattered to widespread coverage, with showers and thunderstorms continuing through the day. The coverage is expected to be slightly higher, so kept mention of SHRA and TSRA in each TAF for now.

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FIRE WEATHER

A persistent weather pattern will produce a daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms through next week. Bouts of precipitation and lack of low RH will keep fire weather conditions at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 78 65 82 64 / 90 70 90 60 Anniston 78 66 81 65 / 80 60 90 60 Birmingham 77 67 82 67 / 90 70 90 60 Tuscaloosa 78 69 83 68 / 90 60 80 50 Calera 78 67 82 67 / 90 60 90 60 Auburn 82 69 82 68 / 60 50 100 50 Montgomery 80 69 82 68 / 90 50 100 40 Troy 82 69 83 68 / 60 50 90 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.