textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026

- Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to increase across our northwest counties this evening then spreading southeast into our north-central counties overnight through early Tuesday morning. A few storms are expected to produce damaging winds and large hail across northwest Alabama this evening with severe potential gradually decreasing into early Tuesday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning across much of Central Alabama with damaging winds, large hail and isolated brief tornadoes.

- Lingering chances for showers and storms will develop again Wednesday across the south-central portions of the area with a few storms expected to produce damaging winds and large hail.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026

Amplified mid-level ridging will move east of the area this afternoon while a zonal to southwest flow pattern develops over much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region. A shortwave disturbance will move over the northwest portion of the area tonight. Towards the surface, the area is positioned between high pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic states and lower pressure across the Central Plains. Expect partly cloudy skies today with breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to our northeast. A stationary front is draped from northwest to southeast portions of the area due to relatively weak wedge effects from the easterly flow becoming more established to the east. High temperatures today will reflect this influence with highs in the upper 80s west and in the mid 70s east.

With the mid-level disturbance moving over our northwest counties along with expected ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity that will approach from the west, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase through the evening across the northwest, then expand eastward and further south into our central counties through the early morning hours on Tuesday. The combination of instability and favorable wind profiles across the northwest portion of the area will support a damaging wind and large hail risk from severe storms.

The morning activity on Tuesday is forecast to gradually weaken and decrease in extent as it continues to move further east and south through the late morning into the early afternoon hours. How quickly this activity moves out of the area will affect how quickly and to what extent destabilization will occur later in the day for the second and stronger shortwave that will move over the area Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop to the west of the area over the Ark-La-Tex region initially and move eastward through the evening and overnight hours with damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes expected. While sufficient shear and dynamics are progged, the amount of marginal instability will depend on how much destabilization occurs after Tuesday morning's activity.

A southern stream disturbance looks to quickly move east over the south-central portion of Central Alabama Wednesday afternoon and into the evening hours. Sufficient instability is expected to support scattered showers and thunderstorms with wind shear profiles favoring damaging winds and large hail risk with portions of our southwest and south-central counties having the highest potential.

The zonal flow pattern will persist through late week with broad and rather flat ridging becoming established over much of the Southern Plains during this time frame. A surface cold front will move southeast through the area Wednesday evening and into the overnight, providing a break from the shower and storm activity along with ushering in lower humidity with a temperature drop with highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 50s/60s from Thursday through Saturday.

Available global modeling disagrees in the position of features later this week, but the general signal is present with a positively-tilted longwave trough moving east from over the Great Lakes Region extending southwest to over the Southwest. This system will move southeast towards the area towards the weekend and will result in increasing clouds from the west on Friday with chances for showers and some thunderstorm activity later on Friday and continuing into the upcoming weekend.

05

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected with high confidence through early evening. The forecast area is positioned between surface high pressure to the northeast and lower pressure across the Central Plains, which will support breezy winds this afternoon into the evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the northwest portion of the area, affecting TCL and BHM by early Tuesday morning.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent observations.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

05

FIRE WEATHER

RH values will bottom out this afternoon in the mid 50 percent west to the mid 40 percent far southeast as moisture gradually increases. Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin affecting the northwest portion of the area tonight into early Tuesday, followed by widespread rain and thunderstorm activity expected Tuesday afternoon and through early Wednesday morning. Additional shower and storm activity is forecast to be best across the south- central and southwest counties Wednesday afternoon and evening before a surface cold front brings drier and slightly cooler conditions to the area for late week. RH values will drop into the upper 30 to low 40 percent range areawide Thursday before the airmass becomes more moist with additional chances for showers and thunderstorm activity Friday into the upcoming weekend. Despite the forecast rainfall across the area through midweek, fire weather concerns will remain elevated due to the persistent widespread drought conditions and critically dry fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 80 60 81 / 50 70 90 80 Anniston 60 81 63 81 / 40 60 90 70 Birmingham 64 82 65 81 / 50 70 90 80 Tuscaloosa 65 84 64 84 / 50 70 90 70 Calera 63 84 63 84 / 40 60 90 70 Auburn 61 82 65 83 / 10 30 70 50 Montgomery 63 86 66 86 / 10 40 60 40 Troy 61 86 64 87 / 0 30 50 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.