textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1022 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026

- Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

(Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026

Active weather continues to appear likely over the weekend and into early next week. However, before we get there, we'll have another day or two of more typical summertime weather on Friday and potentially Saturday. An ongoing MCS in Western TN is expected to dissipate to our north tonight, but will likely push a remnant boundary into Central AL that could provide some extra focus for the development of afternoon thunderstorms on Friday. However, there's significant uncertainty in the placement and strength of that boundary as guidance doesn't typically resolve these features. For now, the best chance for higher rain/storm coverage appears to be across the northern to northeastern portions of Central AL. Otherwise, broad low level ridging should help limit the overall coverage of storms for Friday. As with many summer days, any of the storms that develop may produce strong gusty winds.

As we go into the weekend, a trough is expected to slide southward through the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio and TN Valleys. This will push a boundary into Central AL and support higher coverage of thunderstorms for the weekend. Initially on Saturday, the highest rain/storm chances (60-70%) will primarily be over the northern portions of the area. However, by Sunday those chances go up to 80% for all of Central AL. These high rain chances will continue into Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough potentially becomes a cut-off upper low that slowly meanders through the Mid-MS Valley as we go into the early part of next week. Guidance has struggled with the strength of this upper low, but generally has it weakening as we approach the middle part of next week as the larger ridge strengthens and builds back into the region. As the upper low weakens and the ridging builds in, we'll likely see a return of more typical summertime diurnal thunderstorm coverage and chances (30-40%) by Wednesday and Thursday.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Low level ridging building across the south should limit the thunderstorm activity for tomorrow afternoon, though there may still be a few isolated thunderstorms. The big question will be a remnant boundary from storms in West TN that is expected to push into the northern portions of Central AL tonight. This may provide enough focus for increased thunderstorm chances across the north, so I've included Prob30 groups for TSRA at BHM and EET. Otherwise, VFR conditions with our typical diurnal wind shifts are expected through much of the day tomorrow.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to outage

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and moist air mass remains in place through the weekend with generally light to calm winds. Widespread rain and thunderstorms is expected Sunday into Monday as a weak system moves into the region and stalls through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 72 93 73 90 / 20 30 40 80 Anniston 73 92 74 90 / 20 20 30 80 Birmingham 74 93 75 92 / 20 10 20 70 Tuscaloosa 74 93 75 92 / 10 10 10 60 Calera 73 96 75 95 / 20 10 10 70 Auburn 74 92 75 91 / 20 20 10 40 Montgomery 74 94 75 94 / 20 20 10 40 Troy 73 94 74 94 / 20 20 10 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.