textproduct: NWS Birmingham

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper trough well to our northeast over Hudson Bay and another shortwave trough positioned over Texas. Weak upper level ridging in place across the southeast will do it's best to keep dry conditions for most through the day today. A boundary parked across the region will slowly lift north today with moisture increasing in it's wake. Meanwhile, several bouts of H85-H5 energy will eject ahead of the shortwave through the next couple of days. Current thinking is that increased subsidence aloft will keep us dry to the north of the boundary. Low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms can be found across the southern part of the state. Best chances for convection come this afternoon as we reach peak heating. With little shear, expect any convection to be relatively short-lived.

Rain chances will increase and spread north on Thursday as the ridge begins to weaken and tropical moisture surges inland. Most activity will be diurnally driven as instability increases through the day. Rainfall will likely be heavy at times as PWATs near the 1.85-2" range.

Lastly, patchy fog is expected this morning and again tonight into Thursday morning as winds remain light, dew point depressions narrow, and condensation pressure deficits fall into the 2-5mb range. Greatest chances for potentially dense fog will be dependent on where the rain falls over the coming days.

95/Castillo

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 141 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025

The surge of tropical moisture northward within southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will commence overnight Thursday through Friday morning. This will be in response to Central Alabama being wedged in between the approaching mid-level closed low to our west and 592 decameter ridge just off the Florida Atlantic coast. Before the closed low begins to weaken and become a mid-level trough to our northwest, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a chance for a few strong storms to develop by Friday afternoon as 500mb temperatures are slightly cooler and 20 to 25 knots of shear may support a few robust updrafts. With DCAPE values measuring in between 500 and 1000 J/kg on GFS forecast soundings, a few downburst-type storms may end up developing during the peak heating hours on Friday. Something to keep an eye on as we start to gather CAM forecast data over the next couple of days, and begin to apply summer convection analysis techniques.

The very warm, unsettled, and tropical weather pattern will fully set in over the weekend as southwesterly flow will dominate over most of the atmospheric profile. As the 500mb trough axis moves across the Deep South, plenty of synoptic lift and divergence aloft will contribute to diurnally-driven widespread shower and storm development, aided by mesoscale boundary interactions. Warm air and moisture advection should keep most strong storm development limited as lapse rates aloft are currently advertised to be moist adiabatic. However, as PWATs rise well above 2 inches storms will be very efficient rainfall producers. To say the least, we won't be in danger of entering into a drought anytime soon. Looking at PoPs, they're coming in around 80 percent for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. That doesn't necessarily mean that the entire forecast area will be rained out for hours during those times, but there's a high chance of at least one passing shower or storm that could put a damper on any outdoor plans.

The active, tropical-like pattern will continue through early next week with high rain chances each afternoon through Tuesday. Global guidance is providing some early indications of a slightly drier but hotter pattern setting up by Wednesday and Thursday of next week with a strong 500mb ridge (594+ decameters) developing just to our south. Could we finally see our first streak of widespread 90+ degree temperature days as we approach the middle of the month? If so, we would also need to start paying attention to heat indices rising between 100 and 105 degrees with very moist surface conditions in the 7 to 10 day outlook.

56/GDG

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Similar to the last few nights, MVFR/IFR ceilings and vis are likely closer to sunrise across the region. Greatest chances at MGM/TCL/EET/ASN. VFR returns shortly after sunrise. Continued with the mention of PROB30 at MGM to account for isolated convection during the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds remain light through the cycle.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND will remain in the MGM TAF until further notice due to comms issues that persist.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

The warm and fairly moist airmass will remain in place through the next several days. However, we will see slightly drier air this afternoon across the northern half of Central Alabama dropping RHs into the low and middle 40s. 20 ft winds will remain light from the west this afternoon, generally less than 10 mph. Moisture levels and rain chances are forecast to increase dramatically by Thursday through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 64 87 69 / 0 10 50 30 Anniston 87 67 86 71 / 0 10 60 30 Birmingham 87 68 87 71 / 0 10 50 30 Tuscaloosa 89 70 88 72 / 10 10 60 30 Calera 87 69 86 71 / 10 10 60 30 Auburn 86 70 85 71 / 30 20 60 40 Montgomery 87 70 88 72 / 40 20 60 40 Troy 87 69 89 71 / 60 30 60 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.