textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the much of the northern half of Alabama Saturday. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Confidence is increasing in elevated rain chances and potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools ahead of an incoming boundary.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

Focus of convection this afternoon is near a stalled out frontal boundary in the southern portion of the forecast area. That will remain the case over the next 18 to 24 hours.

That front is forecast to push back northward during the day on Friday, in advance of an upper level shortwave trough forecast to to dig into the eastern states. PWATs and instability will also start to increase by late Friday. The upper level trough and associated surface low will provide a substantial amount of lift on Saturday, much more than we typically see in this time of year. This will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given the increased instability, lowering heights and 500mb temperatures, and the forcing associated with the trough, numerous storms are likely to develop. The main question on potential severity is whether the shear will ample enough to organize storms to a sufficient level. Regardless of storm severity, heavy rain will be a concern as well, especially if the upper low slows down and helps deep tropical moisture continue to feed into our region.

Early next week, we should transition back to a more typical summertime pattern, with daily diurnally driven convection.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

EET and TCL were reporting visibilities of 5SM this morning, due to haze. This may be caused by long range transport of smoke from Canadian wildfires, and satellite imagery does show the trajectory of the haze layer coming from the north/northwest. In any event, will keep the 5SM HZ at both those terminals until it improves, and update other sites if needed.

Otherwise and elsewhere, will maintain a VFR forecast through this evening, with just scattered cumulus clouds. I do think all convection will stay south of all TAF locations this afternoon and evening, so I chose not to include any TEMPO or PROB30 groups at this time.

Computer model guidance show show the potential for more fog/haze development toward morning. Relatively low confidence in the coverage and magnitude of said fog/haze leads me to utilize a TEMPO group during this time frame.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

A humid air mass will keep fire weather concerns negligible across the area through at least the weekend. Best rain and thunderstorm chances in the next 7 days will come Friday night into early Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 66 92 71 87 / 0 0 30 90 Anniston 67 90 72 85 / 0 0 40 100 Birmingham 72 92 73 87 / 0 10 50 80 Tuscaloosa 74 92 74 89 / 10 40 50 70 Calera 71 93 73 88 / 0 20 50 80 Auburn 72 90 74 83 / 0 20 30 100 Montgomery 73 93 73 88 / 20 40 40 80 Troy 72 91 72 86 / 30 60 40 90

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.