textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026

- A cold front will bring rain to the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with rain chances continuing into Friday.

- Medium to high chance of a wintry mix Friday night through Sunday night for portions of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1200 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026

Really no big changes to the previous forecast with the timing of the front and likelihood of the stalling of said front. The main focus on this discussion will be the winter weather for the end of the week and through the weekend and possibly into the first half of Monday.

Friday through Monday.

So the 00z runs were pretty consistent with the timing, location, amounts and the extent of the warm nose through the period. The 12z run of the GFS is still similar to the overall start time, but is trending a touch to the south and even lasting about 12 hours. This solution would provide an accumulation of snowfall on top of the ice accumulation that could make travel even more of issue through Monday. This is the first solution showing this so will stick with the consistency for now with the previous runs, but something to certainly keep an eye on.

Ultimately confidence continues to remain high that this will be an impactful event for the I-20 corridor and north, with exact details to be ironed out over the next few days. Portions of the northwest may not get above freezing until late Monday afternoon once they go below on Friday. Behind the winter weather we will also likely need cold weather advisories as temperatures plummet Monday and Tuesday mornings. Go ahead and make plans now for this winter impact over the weekend. Expect winter headlines to begin within the next 12 to 24 hours.

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Previous discussion: (Through Monday) Issued at 142 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026

Today through Friday

Central Alabama will continue to be cool and dry today in the wake of a weak cold front passing through the region. One more cold night with lows in the 20s is expected tonight. Winds will shift back to southerly by tomorrow, with moisture returning to the area ahead of yet another cold front. This system will be accompanied by rain chances, which should begin to increase by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Models indicate that the front is likely to stall out over Central Alabama Thursday into early Friday, before finally pushing through toward the Gulf Coast during the day Friday. As the front stalls over the region, rain chances remain elevated throughout the day Thursday and into Friday. The latest forecast guidance indicates the potential for 1-1.25" of rain across a large chunk of the area, especially the northwestern quarter, roughly areas north and west of Clanton.

Friday night through Monday

Although rain chances remain in the forecast throughout the day Friday, there may be a brief reprieve behind the front before the big weekend weather maker arrives. A southern stream trough is likely to eject eastward from the Baja California area, originating from a cutoff low off the coast of California late week. Ahead of this trough, a surface low is likely to develop near the Texas coast and track either along the Gulf Coast or just inland Saturday into Sunday. With a fairly cold airmass already in place, especially across northern and western Central Alabama, this will promote an overrunning setup that may become highly favorable for winter precipitation.

Although exact details, such as precip type and amounts, will continue to vary run to run with new model updates, confidence is increasing in some type of winter mischief beginning Friday night across Central Alabama and lasting, in some form or fashion, until Sunday night. At this type, global models such as the GFS and ECMWF are trending more toward a freezing rain setup across much of the central and northern counties, with heavy snowfall currently expected further north across northern MS, AL, GA, and nearly all of TN. Much question remains with the models as to the changeover between snow and ice, but the general consensus currently is for the ice/snow line to meander north and south in North Alabama. With the current forecast, generally more to all snow is expected north of the Tennessee state line, with a higher mix of ice and snow across North Alabama. Northern and central counties in our Central Alabama region currently look to see more in the way of ice accumulation, although it is still a couple days too early to start nailing down projected accumulation amounts.

If current forecast model trends hold, and so far they have for the last 48 hours or so, this could become a dangerous winter event for the northern half of the state of Alabama. It is imperative to stay tuned to forecast updates and any changes over the next three days as the forecast becomes better refined.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable today, at times prevailing from a northerly direction. Winds will shift to a southeasterly direction after 6z but remain light through the end of the period.

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FIRE WEATHER

Cool and dry conditions continue across Central Alabama over the next couple of days. Min RH will drop into the 15-30% range this afternoon, with generally light northerly winds. 20 ft winds will be a tad higher near the GA state line, up to 8 mph. Winds will shift back to the south or southeast on Wednesday as another cold front moves towards the area, with moisture and rain chances returning in the afternoon and evening hours. Min RH Wednesday afternoon is still likely to fall to 20-30% in areas east of I-65, as moisture takes longer to build in. A wet pattern begins Wednesday night and continues into the weekend. Wintry precipitation chances return for this weekend for portions of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 21 55 37 51 / 0 20 70 50 Anniston 25 55 40 54 / 0 10 60 50 Birmingham 30 54 43 53 / 0 20 70 50 Tuscaloosa 30 55 44 56 / 0 30 80 60 Calera 28 56 42 56 / 0 10 60 50 Auburn 30 56 43 62 / 0 0 20 30 Montgomery 29 59 44 64 / 0 10 30 40 Troy 30 59 43 68 / 0 10 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.