textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026

- Heat & Humidity: A significant warming trend will continue through the middle of next week, with heat indices expected to approach 100 degrees this weekend, and rise well above 100 degrees for multiple days next week. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk over the majority of the region, and Heat Advisories will be needed over multiple days.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026

Through the short term, low chances for convection will be present now that the previous surface boundary is out of the picture. At present we have upper zonal flow to our north and a broad and flat ridge across the south. By Sunday this flat ridge will develop into a large upper ridge across the midsection of the US including Texas, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into the Deep South. Any fronts are expected to remain well to the north of the Deep South, and surface ridging is expected to develop across much of Eastern Conus through next week. While ridging will mean subsidence for many, it does not always mean rainfree. By Tuesday, guidance is showing a shortwave that will begin to make its way around the large Eastern Conus upper ridge. This will help to provide a focus for our diurnal convection chances as it propagates through the extended forecast. As a result, look for slightly higher rain chances with heating for the east/south areas for mid week transitioning to the south/west areas for late next week. Confidence is growing for our warming trend. Guidance continues to forecast temperatures creeping upward as we head into the weekend and into next week with overall heat stress becoming a growing concern. Current trends are leaning to a heat advisory becoming necessary for Monday and onward for next week.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 24 hour forecast period at all sites thanks to ridging. There are only very low chances for convection, but these chances are too low to pinpoint at any specific locale to include. Otherwise, off and on high cirrus will be noted at times. Winds will be light and variable winds overnight and from the west-southwest at 7-10 kts during the day.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

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FIRE WEATHER

Only isolated shower or thunderstorm chances are anticipated for this weekend. Slightly better diurnal convection chances are expected by the middle of next week. However, outside of lucky areas of rain, the heat and humidity will be the main story for this weekend into next week as heat indices approach and top 100 degrees. Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity will stay well above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 91 74 93 74 / 20 20 20 0 Anniston 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 20 0 Birmingham 92 75 93 75 / 10 20 10 0 Tuscaloosa 92 75 94 74 / 10 20 0 0 Calera 94 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0 Auburn 90 73 90 75 / 20 10 10 0 Montgomery 92 74 92 74 / 20 0 10 0 Troy 92 73 92 74 / 20 0 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.