textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026

- Slightly cooler temperatures will be in place through Tuesday, with much lower humidity levels.

- Seasonal weather conditions overall through the rest of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026

Upper level trough that was providing the cloudiness across central Alabama today is forecast to cutoff into another closed low, centered initially in north Georgia tomorrow. Moisture wrapping around the north and west side of this feature will lead to chances of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern part of central Alabama Monday afternoon. The upper low meanders a bit to our east and northeast through the middle of the week, keeping the best chance of diurnal convection in the east.

Ultimately, the low weakens/fills and finally gets picked up by the westerlies and ejects to the east by the end of the week. That puts us in between two upper level high domes, one centered in the western Atlantic and the other centered in the Rockies. As a result, conditions here the end of the week into next weekend should be remarkably unremarkable, with temperatures and POPs very close to seasonal normals.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026

Area of wrap-around cloudiness has created a bit of a headache in the ceiling forecast across central Alabama. Ceiling heights and coverage amounts are becoming more uniform in the north, and the 18z TAFS reflect that trend. Computer model guidance suggests that the clouds will eventually mix out and largely dissipate around 00z-01z this evening. My confidence in that scenario is lower than normal, however, given that the models sisn't exactly handle the ongoing cloudiness very well to begin with. Conditions could very well stay VFR through this afternoon into this evening, but it may end up being more of a 3500-4000 ft ceiling VFR vs a SKC or FEW080 or something like that. Low level moisture profile forecasts also suggest a redevelopment of at least MVFR conditions late tonight for the northern TAF sites (TCL, BHM, EET). Will also acknowledge there's a low, but non-zero, chance of ceilings dropping below 1000 ft tonight as well.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

High confidence persists that MinRH values will remain above 45 percent through Wednesday. Drier air is forecast to filter in from the east by next Thursday and Friday, with RH values dropping toward 40 percent. However, winds remain light enough to negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 68 87 68 89 / 10 40 10 60 Anniston 68 85 69 87 / 10 40 10 60 Birmingham 69 86 69 89 / 10 30 10 40 Tuscaloosa 69 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 10 Calera 68 88 69 90 / 0 20 10 30 Auburn 69 85 71 86 / 0 20 10 60 Montgomery 69 89 70 91 / 0 20 10 20 Troy 69 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.