textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026

- A tropical low moving west across the Gulf will maintain low chances (~20%) for showers and storms, primarily across southern Central Alabama.

- A warming trend is expected this week, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s by midweek. Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026

Water vapor imagery paints a fairly active picture across the country this evening with an upper trough off to our northeast and a stout upper level ridge anchored across the Four Corners region. A bit closer to home, we can see a lingering H5 vort max can be seen across the north Gulf coast, which is helping to aid in some scattered convection to our south. At the surface, a weak surface low can be analyzed across the Northern Gulf, about 125 miles south of Pensacola. This feature will slowly drift west over the coming days. The NHC currently has a low (20%) chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. While most of Central Alabama is likely to remain dry, we will see low (~20%) chances for showers and storms each afternoon as deeper moisture wraps around the surface low and spreads across our southern areas. At this time, we are not expecting much in the way of severe weather as wind shear will be minimal. However, instability will be sufficient enough to support a stronger storm or two as we reach peak heating.

As we head through the work week, the upper ridge will expand east. This will help to steer the tropical low to the west across the Gulf. Drier air and increased subsidence will help maintain rain-free conditions across the northern half of the area. We look to continue with low chances for diurnally driven convection across our southern areas where moisture remains elevated closer to the coast.

A warming trend kicks in over the coming days as temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 90s by midweek. Heat Advisories are likely to return by Wednesday as heat indices settle into the 105-107 degree range.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the entire forecast period. Isolated SHRA/TSRA activity will be closest to AUO this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include any mention in the TAF for this cycle. Light and variable winds will increase to around 6-8 knots out of the southeast through this afternoon.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 45% over the next week. Low (~20%) chances for showers and storms will continue daily, generally across our southern areas. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the next week as winds remain light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 93 71 94 71 / 10 0 10 0 Anniston 91 70 92 71 / 10 0 10 0 Birmingham 92 73 93 73 / 10 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 95 74 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 Calera 92 72 93 72 / 10 0 10 0 Auburn 89 72 90 73 / 20 10 10 0 Montgomery 95 73 95 73 / 20 10 10 10 Troy 92 71 93 71 / 30 10 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.