textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026

- Probabilities for accumulating wintry precip Saturday night/Sunday morning have decreased, now at a low (10-20%) chance for our far southeastern counties generally south of I-85. - A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers to the area tonight. Rain amounts will be less than 0.25". - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1209 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026

A large upper-level trough will develop today over the Central CONUS, centered over Ontario and extending southwest through the Great Plains. Cool and mostly sunny conditions are expected across Central Alabama today with surface winds shifting back to the southwest as another cold front approaches the area, which will pass by tonight. Flow aloft will be mostly out of the west, so it does not look as though we will achieve much moisture advection, but enough for a corridor of light to moderate rainfall ahead of the front which will decrease in areal coverage east of I-65. Therefore, rain amounts will be less than 0.25".

Most of the area will remain cool and dry during the day Saturday, then a secondary reinforcing trough will rotate around the base of the upper low which will initiate additional precip along the Gulf Coast and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Probabilities for wintry precip with this second wave have decreased for Central Alabama over the last couple of model runs, favoring redevelopment to our east and maintaining dry, post-frontal conditions across the forecast area as temperatures quickly fall. As it currently stands, will maintain minor snow accumulations in the forecast for our far southeastern counties south of I-85 which could experience a few hours of a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning, but if this trend continues then we will be able to remove any mention of wintry precip from the forecast entirely.

As the deep layer trough begins to slowly shift east on Sunday and Monday, this will place us under an extended period of cold northwest flow and below average temperatures through the first half of next week.

86/Martin

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026

SKC and VFR conditions will continue through much of today. Clouds will begin increasing around 21-00Z as a cold front moves towards the area. The front will bring -RA and MVFR ceilings to the northern TAF sites as early as 00-03Z, and to MGM/AUO by 06-08Z. Aviation impacts will continue thereafter through the end of this period. There will be a breezy southerly wind at 5-8 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Frontal passage will cause winds to shift to the west overnight.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

MinRH values will range from 30-35% in the east to 40-45% in the west this afternoon. There will be a breezy southwest wind today with gusts of 20-25 mph. Moisture will gradually increase from west to east ahead of a cold front which will bring rain to the area tonight. An extended period of dry and cold weather is expected the first half of next week. During that time, MinRH values are generally forecast to remain above critical thresholds, but a surge of dry air will cause RH to drop below critical thresholds for much of the area on Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 54 34 49 20 / 0 70 10 0 Anniston 54 36 50 25 / 0 70 10 10 Birmingham 55 38 49 24 / 0 70 10 0 Tuscaloosa 58 36 51 25 / 0 60 0 0 Calera 58 37 51 25 / 0 70 10 10 Auburn 55 41 54 30 / 0 50 30 30 Montgomery 60 44 54 29 / 0 50 20 20 Troy 58 44 56 29 / 0 40 30 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.