textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026

- Thunderstorms: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday, with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall possible in the strongest storms

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026

The closed low continues to slowly slide off to the west, with one more day of elevated rain chances in the forecast for today. Once this low fully exits the region by Thursday, most of the rain chances across the area will be diurnally driven, with scattered coverage expected in the afternoon. With that being said, there are some medium rain chances (40-60%) on Thursday north of I-20, as a lingering 700mb boundary well to our north may push more organized stuff south. Otherwise, the scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms is what most people can expect headed into the weekend.

Afternoon highs will slowly begin to climb into Friday, as a ridge starts to build off of the East Coast. Thankfully, it still looks like this ridge will be slightly suppressed through the weekend, keeping afternoon highs in the upper-80s and low-90s. The bad news is, this suppression will be short lived, as the ridge looks to build back in by the start of next week. In turn, afternoon highs could climb once more, reaching the mid-90s in many locations by this time next Tuesday.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026

Shower/storm activity has largely diminished this evening across Central Alabama. Cigs at some terminals are already falling to IFR or LIFR, with other terminals likely to follow suit. Cigs should stay at IFR through 14-15z. MVFR cigs are forecast to hang on until midday. Scattered shower/storm activity is expected again during the afternoon and early evening, especially across northern areas. PROB30 for TSRA has been maintained for afternoon and evening hours for BHM, TCL, and EET.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Moist conditions will persist through mid-week, keeping MinRH values well above critical thresholds. Widespread rainfall is anticipated as a weak system remains over the region, precluding any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 87 70 88 71 / 40 20 50 10 Anniston 86 71 88 72 / 40 10 40 10 Birmingham 87 72 89 73 / 40 20 30 10 Tuscaloosa 86 71 90 73 / 40 20 10 0 Calera 89 71 92 73 / 40 20 30 0 Auburn 87 72 88 74 / 20 10 20 0 Montgomery 89 71 91 73 / 20 20 10 0 Troy 88 70 90 72 / 10 10 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.