textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 545 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026

- There is a high chance of strong winds (15 to 25 mph, gusts to 40 mph through this afternoon.

- There is a medium to high chance for frost development Friday morning as temperatures drop into the mid 30s for locations in North-Central AL. - There is a medium to high chances for freezing temperatures Tuesday morning for much of Central Alabama.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 545 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026

Rain will be ending in the east by mid-morning, along with quickly improving skies.

Colder air will filter into the area later this morning with a chilly start expected Friday morning. We will likely see areas of frost across the north through the overnight and into Friday morning. Will hold off on a frost advisory for now as we get the severe activity out, but will likely be issued with the day shifts update.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday with temperatures moderating through the weekend. The next system will move into the area Sunday night into Monday morning. We will need to monitor this system for another round of severe weather. At this time rainfall is apparent as pwats are between 1.3 and 1.5 along the front. The highest instability is right along the coast and a few tiers inland, but we still may see values near 500 J/kg across our south. Bulk shear will be increasing through the night as the trough approaches with the highest well north into the Ohio Valley, as the surface low will pass well to our north. As the system exits there will be a low probability of seeing some now flurries in the northern counties, with no impacts expected.

Behind this system will be a much colder airmass with a high probability of freezing temperatures areawide Tuesday morning, with mid to upper 20 as far south as I-85. Freezing temperatures will be possible in the northeast again on Wednesday morning.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026

The thunderstorms have exited stage right, with the cold air stratus filling back in. This system will continue to exit through the morning, so the low deck will exit fairly quickly across the north and by 16 to 18 in the south. VFR expected through the rest of the cycle. Winds will be strong through the day, before calming after 3z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will end this morning. Gusty winds are expected behind this system as the drier air is ushered into the area. RHs drop quickly with this colder and drier air mass, but should remain above criteria through the afternoon. MinRHs through Friday will drop in the low 30% range and will remain in the 30-40% range through Saturday before increased moisture return ahead of our next system Sunday into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 58 34 67 38 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 58 36 69 41 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 39 68 43 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 61 37 71 43 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 60 37 70 42 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 60 39 69 45 / 60 0 0 0 Montgomery 61 38 71 43 / 30 0 0 0 Troy 61 39 71 43 / 60 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.