textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 613 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026

- Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend, with low chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026

The wet pattern continues thanks to a southerly flow both in the lower levels and the upper levels. In the lower levels, surface ridging is situated eastward off the coast from the Carolinas to Florida with onshore flow around it into Alabama. At the same time in the upper levels, Alabama is caught in between a ridge from Florida southeastward, a large low over California with a protruding shortwave from it over Texas into the Southern Plains, and again with southerly flow in between over Alabama. We are currently in another overnight lull with Thursday expected to be another day of diurnally enhanced elevated rain chances for the afternoon with no organized focus.

On Thursday, the latest guidance indicates that ridging will break down over Florida into the Western Atlantic Coast. More upper disturbances will start to meander across the Deep South from shortwave activity ejecting toward Alabama from the California main low through the flow. Upper flow will transition on Friday night, to a more west-northwest flow as the upper low weakens and moves northeast over the Northern Rockies, ridging expands northward some from Mexico and the Western Gulf, and a second large low feature cycles over Eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England. It will allow for a surface frontal boundary to nudge into the far northern portions of Alabama Friday and slowly nudge southward across the state over the weekend. All of this change will result in even better rain chances for Friday through Monday with the focus of the frontal boundary. Lower rain chances will continue behind the front for portions of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday until the large upper system and associated shortwave activity can swing across Eastern Conus and away from the mainland.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026

Ceilings once again are all over the place early this morning. The trend should be for things to roughly even out, culminating in VFR ceilings by 18Z. Once again included PROB30 for afternoon thunderstorms. Confidence in lower than typical on even a rough timing and location of said thunderstorms. Computer models strongly suggest that the whole daily cycle will repeat again tonight.

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FIRE WEATHER

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the weekend across Central Alabama. This pattern will lead to high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low clouds or fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 86 66 82 65 / 50 30 80 80 Anniston 85 67 82 66 / 50 30 80 80 Birmingham 86 68 83 67 / 50 30 80 80 Tuscaloosa 86 70 84 69 / 40 40 70 70 Calera 87 68 85 67 / 40 30 80 80 Auburn 84 69 83 68 / 50 30 80 80 Montgomery 84 69 84 68 / 40 30 70 70 Troy 84 68 85 68 / 50 20 70 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.