textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 123 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

- Major Heat Risk: A Heat Advisory is in effect Wednesday from 1 pm to 9 pm, with additional advisories likely to be issued for later this week. There is high confidence in dangerous heat with heat indices reaching 105-110F daily from Wednesday through the weekend.

- Severe Storms: A few storms may become severe, producing damaging winds across portions of our eastern and northeastern counties Tuesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 123 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

This afternoon: Elongated ridging extends from over the Southern Plains southeast to across much of the Florida Peninsula while two shortwaves are moving southeast over the Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachian regions. Surface high pressure is centered across the far southeast portion of the state with some weakness in the ridging across the northern and eastern counties, where shower and thunderstorm activity has already developed and is currently increasing as of early afternoon. Expect chances for showers and storms to be best across the northeast and eastern- central counties with lowest chances southwest. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s far east to the mid 90s far southwest. Winds will be from the west to southwest from 4-8 mph.

Tonight: The mid-level ridging will consolidate more over the Northern Gulf Coast region tonight while surface high pressure remains centered just to our southeast. Expect lingering shower and storm activity to decrease through the evening with fair skies overnight with light southwest winds 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower 70s far east and northeast to the mid 70s west and southwest.

Thursday: Mid-level ridging will remain centered over the Northern Gulf Coast on Thursday while surface high pressure builds more over the southern and western portions of the area, resulting in isolated shower and storm activity expected across the eastern third of the area with lowest chances west. High humidity will persist and with higher temperatures, will result in heat index values reaching 105 degrees in portions of our western and central counties. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 1 pm through 9 pm.

Long Term: The long-term portion of the forecast will feature strengthening mid-level ridging as it becomes centered over Central Mississippi by this weekend. Surface high pressure will migrate further northwest, becoming centered across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region by early in the weekend. This pattern will result in minimal chances for widely isolated shower and storm activity primarily confined to the far east and southeast portions of the forecast area. Concerns for persistent heat stress will increase with a multi-day episode of heat indices exceeding 105 degrees and potentially approaching 110 degrees in some spots though the weekend and into early next week. Some spots may fall back into D0 drought category if these conditions do persist into middle next week.

05

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions to continue into early afternoon, except where clouds build that will support chances for showers and storms with best potential across the eastern portion of the area, near BHM, EET and AUO where PROB30 groups are maintained from 20z to 01z. This potential is too low to include at MGM and TCL for this issuance. Showers and storms will gradually decrease through the mid to late evening hours with VFR conditions returning overnight.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 50% through Thursday. As ridging builds Friday, conditions will turn slightly drier, with MinRH values dropping into the mid 40 percent range in the southwest. By the weekend, MinRH values will further decrease to near 40% across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. While isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist through late week, the activity will become very isolated and more confined to eastern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 74 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10 Anniston 73 91 73 92 / 10 20 10 10 Birmingham 75 93 76 94 / 10 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 75 95 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 Calera 74 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 Auburn 74 90 75 92 / 20 20 10 10 Montgomery 76 95 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 Troy 74 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.