textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026

- Severe Weather Potential: A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms is forecast later today through tonight for the northern half of Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds and isolated, brief tornadoes are the primary hazards.

- Flood Threat: A chance for localized flooding will continue as storms with heavy rains move across locations where soil conditions remain saturated.

- Active Pattern: The current wet, unsettled pattern will persist through the week, resulting in periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 135 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026

A very large MCS continues to slide east across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. An outflow boundary extends from a surface low near Memphis. Most of the activity has developed along this outflow boundary and will continue to matriculate eastward into Central Alabama generally by 2 PM. Otherwise scattered showers have developed across much of the area. Any of these storms could pulse up quickly, given the environment in place.

Ample instability and bulk shear around 35 knots would support the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the primary concern. With that said, guidance is highlighting a corridor of enhanced SRH (200-300 m2/s2) during the late afternoon and early evening hours, mainly across the northern third of the state. This will pose a brief threat for an isolated tornado or two. As a result, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Storms across our northern counties and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern portions of Central Alabama. Given saturated ground conditions, even non- severe winds could result in downed trees; remain weather aware on Monday, particularly across the northern half of the area. In addition to the severe threat, we will also have a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for the northern half of the area on Monday. These storms should be moving at a decent rate so that should help limit our flooding threat. However, a fully saturated profile and a deep warm cloud depth will lead to high rain rates with this activity, leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.

Through the remainder of the work week, upper-level ridging will establish control to the west, resulting in northwest flow aloft. Several H5 shortwaves are expected to rotate through this regime, maintaining elevated rain chances. The aforementioned cold front will linger through the week, maximizing low-level convergence and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. As we head into the weekend, rain chances begin to lower as a subtropical ridge takes control. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees early next week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026

Prevailing winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 20 and 25 knots will be common at TCL, BHM, and EET this afternoon, with slightly lighter winds at MGM and AUO. TSRA chances will be in the picture through 00 to 03z for TCL, BHM, and EET. With higher confidence of terminals being affected, went with TEMPO TSRA for these terminals, while leaving PROB30s in at MGM and AUO with lower confidence of widespread storms reaching into southern Alabama. During the evening, winds are forecast to subside with another chance for MVFR to IFR stratus development overnight once again.

Note: METARs from AUO are available but missing data; therefore, AMD NOT SKED continues.

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FIRE WEATHER

High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 70 85 64 86 / 90 10 10 10 Anniston 70 84 66 86 / 90 10 10 10 Birmingham 70 85 68 88 / 90 10 10 30 Tuscaloosa 71 86 70 88 / 90 20 10 50 Calera 71 88 68 90 / 90 20 10 40 Auburn 72 87 69 88 / 80 20 10 10 Montgomery 72 87 70 88 / 80 20 10 40 Troy 72 87 70 88 / 70 40 10 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.