textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

- A Level 1/5 Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place Sunday afternoon/evening across southern portions of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary threats.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for northern Central Alabama. Winter Storm Watch in effect for Calhoun and Cleburne counties. Light accumulations of ice or snow possible.

- Very cold air arrives late Sunday into early next week. Cold weather headlines will likely be posted in the coming days.

DISCUSSION

(Through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

Central Alabama will be on the southern periphery of a winter storm this weekend, with a slight chance for minor ice or snow accumulation across northern counties from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Enough warm air should be present across Central Alabama to make the primary precipitation type be rain. However, ice accumulation is possible Saturday across far northwestern Central Alabama, primarily Marion County. An ice storm is likely to unfold from Central MS into West/Middle TN, just staying outside our Central Alabama counties. Accumulation amounts in Marion and other northwestern counties will be generally less than a quarter inch. There is also a low chance for freezing rain across northeastern Central Alabama Saturday night associated with a cold air wedge over Georgia. The extent of cold enough air far enough west into Alabama remains in question, and more elevated areas of Cherokee, Etowah, Calhoun, and Cleburne counties will see a better chance at a window of ice accumulation Saturday night before warm air advection warms the area well above freezing on Sunday morning.

A deepening surface low will track into Alabama and pass close to the Birmingham metro area Sunday morning. This will result in most, if not all, of Central Alabama being above freezing. A decent warm sector will develop south of the low as a warm front lifts north toward I-20, with 60s and possibly even low 70s across our central and southern counties. Modest instability will be present, on the order of 500-700 J/kg SBCAPE, with enough shear to pose a severe weather risk across southern areas such as Selma, Montgomery, Auburn, and Troy. These storms will form a broken line ahead of a cold front that will pose a risk for damaging wind and tornadoes before exiting into Georgia Sunday afternoon/evening. A Level 1 Marginal Risk has been introduced for Sunday across the southern tier of counties.

Elsewhere, ongoing rain across the northern half of the area may pose a few flooding concerns, as 2-4" of rain is currently forecast to fall across a large portion of Central Alabama from Saturday into Sunday. This will warrant close attention over the next 24-36 hours to see if a Flood Watch may become necessary.

Sunday evening, as the front sweeps through and the whiplash warmup and cooldown of Sunday continues to take shape, any lingering moisture behind the front may result in another brief period of freezing rain followed by light snow showers. This isn't a "definite" and questions remain on if and how much moisture may be left over. The Winter Weather Advisory currently goes through 6 PM Sunday, after which most precipitation will have moved eastward into Georgia. Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee counties were upgraded into the advisory from the Winter Storm Watch, leaving Calhoun and Cleburne still in the watch for now. Forecast confidence remains quite low in these counties receiving much at all in the form of wintry precipitation. However, there is certainly the potential for brief periods of wintry precip across parts of these counties Saturday night (cold air wedge) and Sunday evening (leftover moisture behind the front).

Temperatures will drop sharply Sunday evening, getting into the teens or low 20s for areas northwest of I-85 overnight. On Monday, most areas north of I-20 are forecast to remain below freezing before getting even colder Monday night, with teens across the entire area except for single digits across northern counties. Temperatures/wind chill will likely hit Cold Weather Advisory criteria at least across northern and central counties Monday morning with a brisk northwest wind and again Tuesday morning in part of the area.

Some model runs have hinted at additional winter weather during the next week. As of now, not enough consistent model support exists for introduction into the forecast, but that is of course subject to change over the next few days.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026

Low clouds will linger through the morning, with most terminals staying in MVFR/IFR category through 23/18z before mixing out to VFR category past then.

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FIRE WEATHER

A wet pattern continues through the weekend. Wintry precipitation is expected this weekend for the northern parts of the area. Drier conditions expected early next week, with min RHs back into the 25- 40% range by Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 49 32 47 37 / 10 10 70 100 Anniston 50 34 47 39 / 10 10 60 100 Birmingham 49 35 49 42 / 0 10 70 100 Tuscaloosa 51 34 49 42 / 0 10 80 100 Calera 53 34 51 43 / 10 10 60 100 Auburn 57 41 50 44 / 30 10 40 90 Montgomery 59 42 58 50 / 20 10 50 90 Troy 62 44 60 53 / 30 10 40 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late tonight for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-Lamar- Marion-Walker-Winston.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for the following counties: Blount-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-Lamar- Marion-Walker-Winston.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for the following counties: Calhoun-Cleburne.