textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026

- Heat & Humidity: Dangerous heat will be the main focus over the next seven days, and Heat Advisories will be needed for multiple days. Heat indices will approach 100 or just above for Sunday, rising to 105 degrees or greater by Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Heat Risk will be observed in the Major category for many locations.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026

Even minimal rain chances are looking to be a lower probability for Sunday into Monday with weak surface ridging in place over the gulf coast. At present we have upper zonal flow to our north and a broad and flat ridge across the Southern US. During Sunday this flat ridge will develop into a large upper ridge across the midsection of the US including Texas, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into the Deep South. Any fronts are expected to remain well to the north of the Deep South, and surface ridging is expected to expand across much of Eastern Conus through the upcoming week. While ridging will mean subsidence for many, it does not always mean rainfree. By Tuesday, guidance continues to show a shortwave that will begin to make its way around the large Eastern Conus upper ridge. This wave will help to provide a focus for our, minimal but still present, diurnal convection chances as it propagates around the ridge through the extended forecast. Guidance, however, is trending less likelihood and QPF with it. Confidence is growing for our warming trend. Guidance continues to forecast temperatures creeping upward as we head into this week with overall heat stress becoming a growing concern. Current trends are leaning to a heat advisory becoming necessary for Monday and onward.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 24-hour forecast period at all sites, with ridging in place and only fair-weather cumulus/cirrus at times. We may see a brief MVFR vis at TCL, with some passing low clouds at EET through 14z, but nothing predominate. Winds will be light and variable through 14 to 15z, becoming west- southwest at 7 to 10 kts with mixing after 15z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected through Monday. Slightly better chances for diurnal convection are expected by Tuesday into next week. Outside of isolated pockets of rain, the primary story through next week will be the heat and humidity, with heat indices approaching and exceeding 100 degrees. Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity will remain well above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 94 74 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 93 74 95 76 / 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 94 75 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 94 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 97 74 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 92 74 94 77 / 0 0 10 10 Montgomery 93 74 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 94 74 95 76 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.