textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026

- Rain chances will increase this afternoon, and remain in the forecast into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026

Slowly but surely, the region will continue to transition into SW flow aloft the next few days, as the ridge builds back in over the Atlantic. During this same time, a weak trough will work east over the Rockies, greatly slowing in speed as it runs into resistance from the ridge. Since our region will not be located near any real forcing mechanism, rain chances into the weekend will remain widely scattered in nature, mostly driven by the deep surface flow from the Gulf.

By the weekend however, a deeper trough will begin to move into the northern Plains, finally pushing this stalled trough and cold front through the region. This is where it appears more organized rain chances will work through the area, as plenty of moisture will have worked back in ahead of this front. With that being said, it's still not going to be the good soaking of rain we need, with perhaps an inch of rain possible in isolated locations over the next seven days.

/44/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026

VFR conditions will deteriorate towards the pre-dawn hours as abundant low-level moisture condenses, resulting in low clouds over much of the forecast area through 15z. Expect clouds to scatter out areawide towards midday. There will be low to medium chances for some shower activity this afternoon near MGM and TCL.

05

FIRE WEATHER

While slight variations in values are possible the next few days, MinRH's will generally linger between the mid-40 to 50% range. Those numbers will decrease by Thursday, before rebounding into the weekend. While rain chances are in the forecast, these rain chances will be widely scattered in nature, and widespread rainfall isn't expected until the weekend. Because of that, fire weather concerns remain medium to high at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 82 58 84 58 / 20 10 50 10 Anniston 82 60 83 60 / 20 10 50 10 Birmingham 82 62 84 62 / 20 20 50 10 Tuscaloosa 82 62 83 62 / 30 20 60 10 Calera 83 61 84 61 / 20 10 50 10 Auburn 82 62 82 62 / 20 10 50 10 Montgomery 84 61 85 59 / 40 10 50 0 Troy 82 60 84 59 / 40 10 50 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.