textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026

- There is a medium chance that some communities across Central Alabama will see their first 90 degree day of the year by early this week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the region on Monday, with increased chances toward mid to late this week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026

A warm afternoon is in store across Central Alabama, as highs are expected to reach the upper 80s or even 90F in spots. Satellite shows cumulus development across much of the region. Areas east of the I-65 corridor are favored for a low chance of showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Latest 12z CAMs struggle to develop much in the way of shower activity this afternoon, but do hint at a weakening complex of showers and storms moving northward along the Georgia state line late this evening. This may result in some areas receiving a bit of rainfall, but coverage is expected to be slim overall.

Ridging remains parked off the Southeast coast. However, the ridge will slowly lose its influence across Central Alabama by mid-week as persistent troughing over the Great Plains drives a front into the region. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to near 90 through Tuesday before being confined to southeastern Central Alabama from Wednesday into the weekend. Rain chances increase, especially across northern and western areas, Wednesday through Saturday as the aforementioned front stalls. Successive shortwaves passing along the southern and eastern periphery of the longwave troughing over the plains will drive these increased rain chances along the stalled boundary into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026

VFR and rain-free conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as ridging remains over the Southeast coast. Low rain chance this evening for the Auburn area but confidence is too low to mention in AUO TAF. Southerly winds at 5-12 kts this afternoon will become light and variable overnight, increasing out of the south again by tomorrow morning.

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FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the next few days. However, low chances for isolated showers and storms exist across our eastern areas both Sunday and Monday afternoon. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls across the region. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 63 89 65 88 / 0 20 10 0 Anniston 64 88 65 87 / 10 20 10 0 Birmingham 66 89 69 89 / 0 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 64 90 68 89 / 0 10 10 10 Calera 64 89 67 88 / 0 20 10 0 Auburn 66 88 67 87 / 20 20 10 0 Montgomery 65 90 67 89 / 0 30 10 0 Troy 64 88 65 89 / 0 30 10 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.