textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to reach the lower to middle 90s for much of the next week, keeping heat indices above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026

This evening, an upper shortwave digging around the southwest side of an Eastern Canada main low will eat away at the upper ridge across the Southern US tonight. This will create enough of a northwest flow to push a surface front close to Alabama by early Friday as the parent associated surface low moves eastward across and out of Quebec. As it does so, the front will move across portions of the Mississippi River Valley, Ohio Valley and New England. However, don't look for pumpkin spiced latte weather just yet. Low rain chances across mainly the southern counties of Alabama on Thursday will give way to medium to high rain chances for Friday into the weekend for all of Central Alabama. The main energy from the surface low will push eastward into the Atlantic on Friday with the boundary pushing back well to the north, giving way to a moist southerly fetch into the state. In the upper levels, positively tilted troughing shifts closer to Alabama with ample disturbance activity expected for Friday and Saturday across Central Alabama. While the probability for widespread flooding is low, QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches may occur over this time frame with a few locally isolated higher amounts.

By Sunday, the trough weakens as the upper ridge builds across the eastern half of the Southern US. While there is still a medium chance for activity to occur, it should be more scattered in nature with lower amounts overall. By Monday, and on into the middle part of next week, the upper ridge is expected to strengthen further across East Central Conus. This will yield an easterly flow into Central Alabama and more diurnally enhanced isolated to scattered convective activity once again with low QPF amounts.

08

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail throughout this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to around 5-8 knots out of the southeast through the day. Isolated convection is likely during the afternoon and early evening hours across our southern areas. Therefore, PROB30 groups for TSRA are in place at AUO/MGM starting at 20Z.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at TCL due to missing observations.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-30%) through Thursday, they will increase as we head into the weekend. While fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up during next week if significant rainfall is not seen over the next seven days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 95 71 93 70 / 10 10 50 60 Anniston 93 71 91 71 / 10 10 60 50 Birmingham 94 73 91 72 / 10 10 80 60 Tuscaloosa 97 73 92 72 / 10 10 80 60 Calera 94 72 90 72 / 10 10 80 60 Auburn 91 72 89 72 / 20 20 70 40 Montgomery 94 72 91 72 / 30 20 80 40 Troy 93 71 91 71 / 40 30 70 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.