textproduct: NWS Birmingham

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026

- Hurricane Isaias will continue to move towards the Northern Gulf Coast, making landfall this evening.

- Winds: Gusts as high as 50 to 60+ mph late tonight through mid- day Saturday will result in the potential for widespread downed trees and power lines.

- Rain: Amounts of 1.5 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches will result in the potential for flash flooding, especially in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas.

- Tropical Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes may develop across far southeastern portions of Central Alabama this evening into the overnight hours. Currently we are in a level 1 to 2, out of 5 risk to account for this activity.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026

Here is the latest on the forecast as the main focus once again remains Hurricane Isaias. Changes to the forecast mainly deals with the upgrade to the warnings (tropical and wind). We have just slightly adjusted the timing to be a touch earlier, key messages, and a reduced tornado potential. The slightly modified forecast discussion can be found below:

Hurricane Isaias Overview:

Hurricane Isaias is currently a Category 3 hurricane south of Gulf Shores, Alabama. Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall tonight. After landfall, it will undergo extratropical transition as it turns northwestward, occludes, and merges into a deepening upper low over Mississippi on Saturday. While the surface low quickly weakens, an expanding wind field will overspread much of Central Alabama into Saturday morning.

Tonight:

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate tonight. Widespread precipitation will be present by early evening, with the strongest winds occurring during the evening hours across the southern half of the area. The peak wind impacts will materialize after landfall and continue into Saturday morning. The sustained tropical storm force wind probabilities may be conservative given the pressure gradient with high pressure to the east, and do not fully reflect the potential for damaging wind gusts. An inversion/stable layer will remain in place north of a warm front closer to the coast, though forecast soundings continue to indicate significant winds near the surface. Highest sustained winds are expected across southern counties, with higher wind gusts of 50 to 60+ mph extending further north. Given the anticipated impacts of widespread downed trees and power outages, wind-related have been issued. With the transition to an extratropical system, determining the exact boundary to transition from tropical to non-tropical wind products remains challenging. Generally, I-20 in the east and I-22 serve as the approximate cutoff between tropical storm and high wind warnings. There is a possibility after the system loses its tropical status, additional wind advisories may be needed.

High-resolution guidance indicates the heaviest rainfall will occur during the evening and overnight hours across southern and central Alabama. The heavy rain threat over West Alabama will be associated with the remnant core of the circulation evolving into a comma-head feature during extratropical transition. An additional north-to-south band of heavier rainfall is projected to develop by Saturday morning, primarily across western Georgia but potentially extending into far eastern Alabama. Lower rainfall totals are expected between these bands, but a Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area given the expected tropical rainfall and potential for localized flooding.

Regarding the tornado threat tonight, high-resolution guidance remains consistent over the area north of the warm front, suggesting the primary threat will be confined to early this evening across the southeast. The warm front will be monitored closely if it advances into Pike and Barbour Counties during the pre-dawn hours, though the greater threat largely holds off until after sunrise.

Saturday and Saturday night:

Gusty to localized damaging winds will continue across the area Saturday morning. Wind speeds will gradually diminish from south to north through the morning as the pressure gradient relaxes, though conditions will remain gusty through the day due to daytime mixing and enhanced wind fields aloft. A mid-level dry slot will overspread the region, resulting in a general decrease in widespread heavy rain, though shower activity and isolated thunderstorms remain possible given abundant low-level moisture and the proximity of the upper low. A band of heavier rain may linger near the Georgia state line, with the highest totals remaining in Georgia.

Instability trends will be monitored closely as the warm front lifts northward Saturday morning, mainly for areas east of I-65, while a developing cold or occluded front serves as the western boundary for the severe threat. In general, instability will increase as low-level shear and helicity decrease. However, sufficient overlap of instability and shear may persist to support an isolated tornado threat during the morning, though indications suggest the primary north-to-south convective band will have shifted into Georgia by that time. Into the afternoon and evening hours, convective redevelopment will be evaluated, as deep-layer shear along with marginal low-level shear could remain supportive of isolated tornadoes.

Sunday onward:

Cloud cover and light rain or drizzle will linger on Sunday before the upper low lifts out of the region. Beyond Sunday, dry conditions return next week along with above-normal temperatures as ridging builds over the area.

16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for northern sites through late afternoon while southern sites will fall below VFR as early as mid afternoon. Hurricane Isaias will make landfall by early evening and move northward with time, resulting in low CIGs with heavy rainfall and increasing winds with wind shear at all sites starting as early as 22z south and as late as 01z north and persist through 08z south and 13z north. Winds will be sustained at least 20-30 kts with gusts over 40 kts at times. Conditions will begin to improve after 10z south and after 15z north.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances and humidity begin to increase across southeast portions of the area Friday, while northwestern portions of Central Alabama will have RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range. Fire danger for northwestern areas may be elevated Friday as winds begin to pick up ahead of an approaching tropical system. Widespread rain and high winds are expected Friday night and Saturday as Hurricane Isaias moves through the area. Drier air moves quickly back into the region early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Gadsden 57 75 59 77 / 100 100 60 10 Anniston 59 76 61 76 / 100 100 60 10 Birmingham 59 74 60 78 / 100 90 50 10 Tuscaloosa 60 73 59 84 / 100 90 30 0 Calera 60 74 60 78 / 100 80 40 0 Auburn 61 78 61 77 / 100 80 40 0 Montgomery 61 78 59 81 / 100 50 20 0 Troy 61 79 59 81 / 100 50 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Autauga- Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.

High Wind Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah.