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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will continue across central and eastern North Dakota this evening, ending from west to east overnight.

- There are low to medium chances (20 to 50 percent) for mixed precipitation Tuesday through Wednesday. This includes a 20 to 40 percent chance of measurable snow across western North Dakota Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected this week, with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s and lows mainly in the 20s and 30s.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Rain continues to fall across central and eastern North Dakota early this evening. At 6 PM CST, there were 2 areas of more persistent moderate rainfall: one over the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake Basin areas and another moving northeast through the James River Valley and adjacent areas. Rain will gradually diminish from west to east later tonight. The near-term forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Currently, long wave trough over the Rockies with strong ridging across the eastern CONUS results in a south/southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains region. Embedded impulses and strong upper level forcing has led to extensive cloud cover and precipitation across the region. Enhanced showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue along a north to south orientated sfc trough/frontal boundary draped across the central Dakotas. Have already seen a 1/4 - 1/2 an inch of precipitation with the more enhanced activity this afternoon, with more precipitation still to arrive.

Embedded waves and forcing will continue to bring enhanced rainfall and a few thunderstorms along and east of the sfc boundary this afternoon and evening, with activity slowly migrating to the east through this evening as the sfc trough moves into eastern North Dakota. Precipitation then ends overnight with all forcing to our east. Another S/WV trough swings across the Northern Plains late tonight through Monday, and will mainly push through a secondary cold front, and possibly some low level stratus across the north.

The sky will trend clear for Monday, along with seasonal high temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s and a breezy northwest wind.

A potent and progressive upper level wave enters the Pacific Northwest on Monday, then propagates east-southeast across the Northern Rockies Mon night, closing off and quasi-stalling across the Northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This feature will bring another chance (30-50%) for precipitation to the region during its residence time, this time with cold enough temperatures for a mix of both rain and snow Tue night/Wed AM. Not expecting much in regards to rain/snow amounts at this time, but could see measurable snowfall across the west (few tenths) with the probability for a tenth of an inch or more of snow at around 20-40 percent. Cooler temperatures also accompany this wave, with highs both Wed and Thursday mainly in the 40s, with some 30s for highs across the west on Wednesday associated with CAA on the backside of this system.

After Thursday, will have to see how a closed upper low evolves and tracks later in the week and through the coming weekend. Temperatures are favored to be near to slightly above average, with possible precpitation chances over the weekend, depending on how far north the aforementioned low tracks is it moves through the central CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Rain will continue across central and eastern North Dakota this evening, ending from west to east overnight. MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions can be expected with the rain, and areas of fog/mist could also contribute to reduced visibility. Ceilings across central and eastern North Dakota will remain at MVFR to LIFR levels this evening. Improvement to VFR is likely from KMOT to KBIS later tonight, but KJMS is more likely to see at least an IFR ceiling continue through the night. By early Monday morning, a separate area of MVFR ceilings could move in from the northwest and spread southeastward through the morning. A period of MVFR ceilings has been added to KXWA, KMOT, and KBIS for Monday morning, with KJMS maintaining IFR to MVFR ceilings. The MVFR ceilings could also reach KDIK, but confidence is lower there. Winds will become northwesterly around 10-15 kts tonight through Monday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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