textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog this morning west and central, locally dense at times south and west of the Missouri River. - Large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder and below normal) to southwest (mild and above normal) through Saturday. - Mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures forecast for much of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The forecast for this morning remains on track. See below for more detailed discussion.

Will maintain the Dense Fog advisory as is, south and west of the Missouri River, with web cams in this area still showing areas of lower visibility.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Currently, we remain under northwest flow aloft with a surface ridge of high pressure across south central Canada extending southeast through north central and eastern North Dakota. Right entrance region upper level jet dynamics contributing to scattered flurries over the region at times as divergence aloft tickles a persistent baroclinic zone draped across the Dakotas. Patchy to areas of fog early this morning across the western third of the state, with the lowest visibility observations south and west of the Missouri River. This continues to be where high res CAMs put the higher dense fog probabilities and where sfc obs have been lowest the past several hours, so will maintain fog headlines here as is with this product issuance. We opted to cancel the Dense Fog advisory north and east of the Missouri River as models do not favor these areas and vis observations have failed to justify any headlines.

Upper level and sfc pattern across the Northern Plains remains quasi-static through Saturday, with northwest flow aloft and a ridge of sfc high pressure draped across the eastern Dakotas. This will maintain cold temperatures northeast and milder temperatures southwest. An embedded wave looks to bring a chance for light snow to central and eastern areas of North Dakota today and tonight, though with little if any snow accumulations with minimal low level forcing.

Western US upper level ridge develops east across the Rockies and into the Great Plains Sat night into Sunday, deamplifying as it does and allowing milder air to spread east across the region. Models still depict an embedded S/WV moving through the ridge and across the Dakotas on Sunday, though NBM only has low POPs below 20% so most ensembles are dry with this feature. Can't rule out some moisture though, and could come in the form of mixed precip/freezing rain considering warm temperatures aloft spreading east over sfc temperatures in the 20s across much of my area outside of the southwest. For now will stick with NBM and monitor trends.

A quasi-zonal flow is favored for much of next week, with temperatures averaging above normal and only minimal chances for any precipitation. Still some signs of a more active pattern materializing for late next week, though any impacts for our area remain highly uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Widespread stratus and/or mid level cloud cover remains over all of western and central North Dakota this morning, and will likely remain over much of the forecast area through much of the 12Z TAF period. LIFR ceilings and visibilities in fog through Friday morning, especially in the southwest. KMOT and KJMS will see the best chances to improve to MVFR or even low VFR this period, but most areas are expected to remain MVFR to IFR through much of the day today and likely into this evening. An area of light snow will also move through this afternoon and evening, mainly at KMOT and KJMS where some reductions in vis in falling snow will be possible.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.