textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium (~20 to 50 percent chance) for light snow over much of western and central North Dakota today and tonight.

- Notably colder temperatures for northwest and central North Dakota on Saturday.

- Swift warming trend to start the upcoming week, with very mild temperatures lingering into mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Limited updates again needed. Some light snow continues to push eastward. Some lower clouds are starting to show up in the west, although limited snow reports have been found. Still kept some slight snow chances in the west and south through today for these developing low clouds. Winds along and behind a cold front moving through continue to be windy and near advisory level, yet still just short. Made minor wind adjustments to match current obs.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Some light snow showers continue to linger in the southeast, while breezy winds are starting to move in behind a passing cold front. Some sites in the northwest have gusted to near 40 mph. Increased wind forecast slightly for today, although most areas should see winds below advisory criteria. Otherwise the forecast generally remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Narrow area of snow continues to move easterly through south central North Dakota and gradually decrease in intensity. Therefore have adjusted precipitation chances to match. Remainder of forecast continues to be in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Current surface analysis places low over Lake Michigan, with secondary low along the southern part of the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border. High remains over the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Upper level analysis places trough stretching from Saskatchewan southward to New Mexico, closing off on its southern end. Over our area, a weak trough ahead of the main system is resulting in a narrow band of snow working through south central North Dakota. Accumulations have been rather light with this band, but visibility has been reduced to a mile or two at times as it passes through.

For today, ongoing band of snow will continue pushing towards the east over southern portions of our area, dissipating as it makes its way towards and through the James River Valley. Thereafter, a rather unsettled day is on tap as aforementioned upper trough pushes over our area, trying to close off near the International border. This will bring a chance for snow, mainly for western portions of our area later today, with additional chances primarily over the west tonight as a secondary wave drops through behind the closed low which is forecast to drop into Minnesota. With that all said, any accumulations are expected to remain on the light side, possibly an inch or two in some locations. In addition, surface low pushes east with colder air dropping into the area. This will result in breezy to windy conditions today, possibly lingering through the evening over eastern parts of our area.

On Saturday, a notable temperature gradient will be over the area as the aforementioned cold air remains over northern/eastern locations, and warmer air tries to push into the southwest. Therefore, highs in the single digits are expected over the Turtle Mountains into the upper James River Valley, while southwest North Dakota will be pushing around 30s for highs. Mainly dry conditions expected, though a little light snow may linger in the morning over the southwest.

Warmer air then swiftly pushes into the area with conditions remaining dry to start the upcoming week. By Monday, high temperatures through the area are expected to be about 15 to 25 degrees above average, with NBM spreads continuing to show high confidence in this occurring.

Pattern then becomes a bit active with latest guidance indicating a variety of disturbances pushing through northwesterly flow aloft. The first chances for this come through Monday night into Tuesday, bringing low chances (20 to 30 percent) of rain through the area. Additional chances come later in the week which may be a rain/snow mix. Speaking of later in the week, NBM temperature spreads increase, reducing confidence in forecast high temperatures, especially as we get towards the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR to perhaps brief MVFR may be found through much of the forecast period. Cold front will move through today bringing some isolated snow showers and lower clouds at times. This could bring some brief MVFR conditions, otherwise look for mainly VFR conditions today. Tonight into Saturday morning, clouds and chances for light snow go on the increase across the west with mainly VFR conditions east and a mix of VFR and MVFR central. Have some snow mention in the KXWA to KDIK area, which could provide for some MVFR conditions, with confidence not high enough to go into central North Dakota at this time. Gusty northwest winds may be found today into this evening, diminishing somewhat tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.