textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through Friday, then are favored to trend cooler this weekend.

- Windy with low to medium chances (20% to 50%) for a wintry mix of snow and rain through this morning. Another chance (30% to 60%) for mainly snow (rain/snow mix far southwest) on Wednesday.

- Higher uncertainties for precipitation next weekend, with very high uncertainties for temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Currently strong zonal flow is present over the Northern Plains with a slight ridge building over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a weak clipper system is grazing North Dakota. A warm front is laid across the state north to south, in the central part of the state. A cold front is working it's way out of northeast Montana into northwestern North Dakota. Winds should start to gust around 30 knots as the cold air advection kicks in with that cold front sometime early this morning. Light snow has been on and off reported, but with the warm front kicking in those reports are now rain. So far, the only precip making it to the ground is in central North Dakota. Most of the model soundings have a dry layer near the surface, this is backed by observations under the radar echos not reporting anything. We will continue to maintain low to medium (20 to 50 percent) PoPs in the forecast for this reason. Little to no snow accumulations are expected. The system will continue moving east through the morning, and chances for the rain and snow will end before sunrise here in central North Dakota.

The rest of today will be around normal for highs everywhere except the north. Winds will stay a little elevated through the day but slowly decrease, especially when the diurnal mixing ends. Wednesday a weak wave and low pressure will slide through the southwest part of the state. This will bring higher chances for mostly snow across the west and south. The vary far southwestern counties could see a rain/snow mix in the warmer air. Models are hinting at possibly a banded light snow event with accumulations up to 1 inch along and south of Highway 200. NBM chances for 1 inch are only 30 percent, and are in the southwest. Timing looks to be between 6am CT and 6pm CT Wednesday, with the snow moving west to east. The highest chances for snow is along and south of the Interstate where the NBM has 60 percent chances through that time period. Temperatures again will be around normal, so a switch to all rain is possible in the late morning in the southwest, and in the afternoon across the south central.

The rest of this week will be quiet weather and normal temperatures with strong northwest flow. This weekend looks to to be cooler as the northwest flow sinks south a little. With that another banded snow event could occur across the southwest and south central Friday night through Saturday. This once could be more snow accumulation than the previous. Right now, forecast snow totals are around 3 inches in the southwest. The NBM chances for 1 inch are 50 percent south of the Interstate and west of the Missouri River, and 30 percent for 2 inches there. High temperatures Saturday could be 10 to 20 degrees below normal (colder in the north). These cooler temperatures could only last one day, then back to normal until Tuesday. Friday into Saturday will also be windy from cold air advection behind a cold front. Current forecast wind gusts are around 37mph.

Heading into next week there is very high uncertainty for temperatures. Some models have 850mb temps above freezing, and other have them 20 degrees below freezing. Looking at the clusters, they are split into 2 solutions. That much colder outcome or the slightly warmer one, right now they are leaning 55/45 percent for the colder solution. NBM temperature spreads for Tuesday to Thursday are almost 40 degrees. Could be in the upper teens, or nearing 60 degrees those day across southern ND. The deterministic NBM is near the middle at 33 degrees in the south central.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR CIGs and VIS with light snow or freezing rain tonight. Winds will be gusty around 30kts from the west early this morning, calming by Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear will be present tonight as two fronts move through the state.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.