textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry conditions expected through the rest of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through the first part of the week, then a warming trend develops.

UPDATE

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Limited updates needed early this afternoon. A few showers are possible in the southwest this afternoon, while clear to partly cloudy skies and cool conditions are found elsewhere. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 938 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Some mid level clouds are lingering in a few areas, thus made some minor adjustments to cloud cover. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota this morning. Have made some slight adjustments to sky cover to blend in the latest satellite observations, but otherwise the forecast remains in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Near zonal flow is found over the forecast area this morning. At the surface, high pressure lingers over the northern Plains region, contributing to the relatively calm and quiet weather expected today. Increasing cloud cover is expected this afternoon as a low pressure system is progged to move across Minnesota and into southern South Dakota. Short term CAMs continue to limit the chances for precpitation associated with this system anywhere in our area, as an interrogation of the BUFKIT soundings indicates that a very dry near surface layer will likely prevent much if any liquid from reaching the ground. You may see an errant drop or two somewhere in the far southwest or south central this afternoon, but overall it is expected that conditions will remain dry today. Will maintain the very low (sub 15 percent) chances for precpitation advertised by the NBM. Otherwise, high temperatures this afternoon are expected to broadly be in the 50s, though portions of the far north may only peak into the upper 40s. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn increasingly northwesterly tonight through the end of the week. As the influence of a transient upper level ridge strengthens through the workweek, primarily dry weather and warming temperatures are expected. The occasional shortwave perturbation traversing the mainly northwesterly flow could promote brief chances for light precpitation over portions of the area on Wednesday and Thursday, though this dry pattern is unlikely to promote any notable rainfall. Near to slight above normal temperatures are expected to return by this weekend as the ridge crosses the Great Plains, with highs in the 60s and 70s broadly forecast by Saturday. Looking further ahead, the ensemble remains somewhat split as model members attempt to resolve a potential PNW trough/closed low moving into the region some time early next week. The greatest impact of this would be on temperatures, with a slight majority of members (approximately 60 percent) favoring a return to slightly below normal temperatures by the middle of next week as cooler air is displaced over the northern Plains. A minority cluster (40 percent membership) instead champions a much more diffuse wave as it passes through the region, which would allow the near to above normal temperatures to persist through this period. In any scenario, there is no strong signal for significant precpitation at the time of this forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period. Some VFR cloud cover is expected today, with perhaps a few showers in the southwest. More VFR to low VFR clouds and dry conditions are then expected tonight through Wednesday morning. Light winds will become northwesterly today, then north to northeast tonight into Wednesday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.