textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium snow chances continue this evening southwest and south central before the next system approaches. - Snow develops over much of the area Saturday, especially south. Heaviest snow along and south of Interstate 94. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories have been issued over much of southern North Dakota.

- Well below normal temperatures this weekend into early next week, followed by a moderate to strong warming trend through the middle to later portions of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Current surface analysis places high pressure sliding through the central and eastern Dakotas on the back side of yesterday's system, while low remains over northern/eastern Wyoming. Upper level analysis notes fast west-northwest flow with a couple of modest short waves pushing over the region. Over our area, an area of snow to the north/east of the the surface low affiliated with the aforementioned short waves and a modest surface trough continues to pass through southeastern Montana and western South Dakota, pushing into southwest parts of North Dakota. With that said, some very light snow has extended into parts of northwest/south central North Dakota.

This snow will continue through late afternoon before tapering off tonight, but the next system will be following in right behind, so snow chances will remain through the overnight over parts of the southwest/south central.

The next system starts to spread snow over our area early Saturday morning as a Pacific trough pushes over the Rockies and rapidly deepens, as a lee slide surface low deepens over Wyoming and ejects easterly out into the plains. Snow will spread from Montana into the Dakotas, with the heaviest snow for us expected along the South Dakota border. Models have been running rather consistent with keeping the greatest probabilities for heavy snow generally along and south of Interstate 94, though latest NBM runs have bumped higher probabilities north a bit. Given the higher probability, have decided to go with a Winter Storm Warning for the far south, with Advisories along the northern edge. Concerns with this system go into Sunday as though the snow will be tapering off, gusty winds will continue, especially over eastern locations. Therefore blowing snow will remain a concern.

Chilly temperatures remain over the area through Monday before warmer air starts to push into the area in earnest. Therefore, notable warming trend is then on tap going through the work week with NBM spreads showing well above average temperatures for the middle and end of the work week. As for precipitation, chances come Monday night into Tuesday with the warm air pushing in. Given the warmer air coming in aloft, a change in precipitation type is possible on Tuesday starting as snow, transitioning to a period of freezing rain, then transitioning to rain given the surface temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Areas of IFR with occasional LIFR visibility in snow will remain through this afternoon over southwest North Dakota, including the KDIK terminal. MVFR with occasional IFR ceilings and visibility will remain over parts of northwest into south central North Dakota this afternoon, with improvement early this evening.

Later tonight, another round of snow will push into the area (mainly southern parts of North Dakota) and remain into Saturday. Conditions will gradually deteriorate late tonight into Saturday morning from southwest to northeast, lowering to IFR to occasional LIFR conditions, with the worst conditions south of Interstate 94. Over northwest and north central North Dakota, MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ017-018. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for NDZ019-020-035. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for NDZ034-042-045-046. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ036-037. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ047-048-050-051.