textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong westerly winds today into this evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of our area.

- Critical fire weather conditions today for parts of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley.

- Notable cool-down in temperatures today into Friday, with cooler temperatures lingering through the weekend.

- Active weather pattern through much of the forecast, with near daily chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Current surface analysis places low over southeast Saskatchewan with trough dropping south into the Central Plains. Upper level analysis places low over northern Alberta, with secondary low over eastern Montana. Overnight showers in south-southeast flow that we were earlier dealing with have mainly exited to the east.

For today, surface low meanders towards the east while aforementioned Montana upper low starts to get wrapped into the southeasterly moving Alberta low. Gusty winds are expected to develop in the tight pressure gradient, but latest guidance does relax the gradient a bit later in the day. Forecast soundings also continue to show the potential for ~40 to 45 kt winds to mix down, but unable to tap into the stronger winds that remain above the inversion. With that said, winds still will be quite gusty and therefore have expanded the wind advisory across almost all of our area. Forecast soundings do keep the higher winds going into the evening, so have extended the advisory to go into the evening hours. As for precipitation, the mass majority of the precipitation remains well north of our area, but some will be able to wrap around, affecting mainly western parts of our area. Temperature profile shows this to be mainly rain, but could transition towards snow for a bit over the northwest. A west to east temperature gradient is expected as cooler air tries to wrap in. Therefore, highs in the mid to upper 40s are expected in our far west, with 70s possible over parts of the lower James River Valley. Speaking of that area, guidance shows drier air remaining over our southeastern areas resulting in humidity values dipping into the 20s. This will combine with the gusty winds to bring critical fire weather conditions. Therefore, have gone with a Red Flag Warning today for Logan, McIntosh, Stutsman, LaMoure, and Dickey Counties.

On Friday upper low deepens over southeast Saskatchewan, while surface low lifts over Lake Winnipeg then backs west allowing the system to stack. This will bring gusty westerly winds to our area, but not as strong as the Thursday winds. Some rain or snow may also wrap in, though the mass majority of the precipitation again remains to our north/northwest. Saturday will see similar conditions as the low loiters to our north-northwest.

We then remain in a somewhat active pattern going into next week as a variety of disturbances move through bringing chances for precipitation while temperatures continue to remain on the cool side.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across south central and eastern North Dakota into the overnight hours. The main hazard from these showers and storms is strong, erratic wind gusts.

On Thursday morning, and area of rain with MVFR ceilings will move into western North Dakota. The rain is forecast to lift northeastward and diminish through the afternoon while MVFR ceilings persist in the west and expand into central North Dakota. Some snow could mix with the rain along the Montana border. Aside from showers and storms, winds will still remain gusty overnight, generally southwesterly to southerly around 10-20 kts. Westerly winds will then become strong on Thursday, with sustained speeds around 25-35 kts and gusts up to 45 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ002>004-010-012-013-019-020- 022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-055>062. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ037-047-048-050-051.