textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog west this morning, locally dense at times west. Patchy fog and scattered flurries elsewhere in the western half of the state. - Another round of light snow across north central and into eastern North Dakota tonight.

- Large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder) to southwest (warmer) through the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 429 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Quick change to headlines. Southwestern ND continues to rapidly improve as winds become westerly, with my northwest counties seeing reductions in visibility now compared to just an hour ago. For Dense fog headlines, opted to cancel the southwest and issue for the northwest through 14Z (8AM CST) this morning. Will continue to monitor for additional possible changes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft persists, with an embedded S/WV bringing a swath of light accumulating snow to northeastern areas of North Dakota early this morning. This includes the Turtle Mountain region and western Devils Lake basin area of my far northeast counties from central Bottineau County southeast through the northern one half of Pierce County. Still expecting up to around 2 inches of snow through sunrise this morning for this area. Elsewhere, extensive stratus deck remains over western and central areas of the state, along with fog and isolated light flurries, with localized areas of dense fog west. As a sfc low over southwest ND continues to move south, winds are becoming more westerly across my far southwest counties, and is scouring out the low stratus and fog with improving visibility via sfc observations and ND DOT web cams the past couple of hours. Will trim some of the counties from the Dense Fog Advisory with this product issuance, and am currently anticipating letting the remainder expire on time at 12Z (6AM CST), though will make a final decision closer to that time.

For today and tonight, the stratus deck will remain quasi- stationary with some clearing west and east today, then will be situated across western and south central tonight. Extent of any lingering fog this afternoon remains questionable, but right now models favor improvement this afternoon, then redeveloping tonight again across the west.

We remain under northwest flow aloft through the first half of the weekend, maintaining cold temperatures northeast and milder temperatures southwest. Another embedded wave will bring another swath of light snow to central and eastern areas of North Dakota later on Friday through Fri night.

Western US upper level ridge develops east across the Rockies and into the Great Plains Sat night into Sunday, deamplifying as it does and allowing milder air into the region. Still a sharp temperature gradient from southwest to northeast, though milder temperatures start to spread farther east early next week as our flow aloft transitions to more zonal. Models also still showing another embedded S/WV riding over the ridge and bringing a swath of light snow to northeastern areas of our area mainly during the day Sunday.

A quasi-zonal flow is then favored for much of the remainder of next week, with temperatures averaging above normal and only minimal chances for any precipitation. Still some signs of a more active pattern materializing for late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

IFR to at times MVFR ceilings over much of western and central North Dakota to begin the 06Z TAF period, with OVC VFR conditions east. LIFR ceilings in western ND continue, including KDIK and KXWA, along with some lower visibility in fog. KJMS expected to deteriorate to MVFR-IFR ceilings in the 08-12 UTC timeframe with occasional light snow or flurries. An area of snow pushing through north central and eastern North Dakota this morning, so expect occasional light snow near KMOT and east to the Turtle Mountains for the next few hours. Low ceilings look to persist well into Thursday for most terminals, or redevelop Thursday night. Winds will generally be less than 12 knots from the east-southeast tonight, then turning northwest from west to east on Thursday behind a weak frontal passage.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning for NDZ001-002-009-010-017.