textproduct: Bismarck
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Above average temperatures Wednesday, then a dip to a bit below average temperatures through the remainder of the work week.
- The first opportunity for a large area of frost, mainly over northern areas, may come Thursday night. A few areas may have frost Wednesday night. - Occasional low precipitation chances through the work week, but overall a mainly dry pattern is expected.
UPDATE
Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Forecast remains on track. Little to no updates needed late this evening.
UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Little to no updates needed early this evening. Forecast remains on track.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Current surface analysis places low over Saskatchewan, with high over the Pacific Northwest. Upper level analysis places low near the California/Nevada/Arizona border. Westerly flow remains over our area with a potent short wave pushing off to the east. Over our area, quiet weather is now in place as most of the low clouds from earlier have diminished.
For tonight, a quiet night is on tap as surface low pushes off over Manitoba. This will keep a light westerly wind going through the night.
On Wednesday, westerly flow remains in place with dry conditions continuing. A cooler surface high starts to push in later in the day into the night. Therefore, lows in the mid to upper 30s are possible mainly over parts of northwestern North Dakota which could lead to some frost.
On Thursday, a weak wave skirts southwestern North Dakota which could bring a shower to the area. Otherwise, quiet and cooler weather continues. Surface high passes over overnight with winds going very light. This will allow temperatures to drop even more, with lows possibly dipping into the mid 30s over much of western and central North Dakota. Therefore, this could be our first widespread frost of the year.
To end the week into the weekend, upper flow shifts more west/northwest bringing seasonal temperatures. A few weak waves move through the flow possibly bringing a few light showers, but chances are low (about 20 to 30 percent).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
All VFR through the period. Calm and variable winds Wednesday morning before gusting near 25kts across the west again.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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