textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms ending this evening, then widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

- A few thunderstorms could become strong from northwest to south central North Dakota Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

- Temperatures are favored to remain near to below normal through the week, with highs mostly in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, and 70s all other days.

- Strong northwest winds are possible in western and south central North Dakota on Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track southeast across the forecast area. There have been a few stronger storms this afternoon, but they're pulsey and if something would go severe here in the next hour or so, it would be very brief.

We made some adjustments to pops and sky cover based on latest radar and satellite analysis. Otherwise, no changes to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Currently, an embedded S/WV impulse moving southeast across the Northern Plains continues to result in numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon central and east, with a developing CU field and isolated showers over western North Dakota. A few stronger updrafts have been noted at times over my central and east, but thus far everything has stayed sub- severe. We continue to monitor this activity, with the main threat gusty winds to 60 mph as these storms form and collapse given little shear present where these storms are developing. Gusty northwest winds at times today, especially near convection.

Convection will decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating and in the wake of the embedded wave, along with decrease clouds and wind.

Northwest flow continues on Tuesday, with more embedded impulses approaching and sliding southeast across the Dakotas during the day and through Tuesday night. Expect another round of initially diurnally driven convection Tue afternoon, mainly showers and a few thunderstorms though rather weak given minimal CAPE and SHEAR. Better shear Tue night will combine with several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE when a S/WV trough slides southeast across the Dakotas. SPC has western and south central ND in the Marginal Storm outlook (level 1 of 5) for this period.

Wednesday will be very windy and cooler behind the aforementioned trough and cold FROPA, along with continued chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. It appears a sold Wind Adv, with an outside chance of a High Wind Warning over southwest and south central areas.

Thereafter, we remain in northwest flow aloft, with temperatures trending slowly warmer, but will remain below normal for late June, along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Long range outlooks suggest a return to more summer-like temperatures and typical late June thunderstorm chances as we look towards the final week of the month.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered showers with an occasional thunderstorm will end early this evening, then clearing. Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening, then shift west to southwest. Variable winds Tuesday, generally southerly turning westerly at 10 to 15 knots. Another round of showers moving into western and central ND on Tuesday, with a possible thunderstorm in the west late in the afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.