textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible over central North Dakota late tonight into Thursday morning.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are favored for most areas this week, with highs generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

- Temperatures may trend cooler next week with a more active weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A quiet weather pattern continues across western and central North Dakota.

Currently, skies were clear to partly cloudy across western and central North Dakota. The only exception was some low stratus lingering around the Turtle Mountains. We remain within a weak surface pressure pattern on the southern periphery of a broad northwest upper flow from the Northern Plains into Canada, and well south of southern jet stream.

In the near term the lack of a significant surface gradient may once again lead to patchy fog over central North Dakota. Today, low stratus and fog was mostly confined to eastern ND, east of a slow moving warm front. The front becomes nearly stationary trough that lingers over central/eastern ND into Thursday. Given our light surface flow, clear to partly cloudy skies and residual low level moisture, we can not rule out some patchy shallow fog pretty much anywhere in the forecast area. Short term model guidance is highlighting mostly central and into eastern ND. Will add a mention of patchy fog again tonight into Thursday morning.

Warm conditions are expected to last through the work week and into the weekend. Highs will be mainly in the 40s and lower 50s, except some 30s remaining over the far north central into northeast ND. Morning lows will be mainly in the upper teens to upper 20s. NBM ensemble MaxT spreads remain low through Saturday, leading to a moderate to high confidence in forecast high temperatures during this timeframe. Spreads do begin to increase Sunday and into next week. By the middle of next week we see NBM ensemble MaxT spreads increase to 10 to 15 degrees across the forecast area. Forecast confidence in a downward trend in temperatures remains medium to high, but confidence in the extent of the cooldown remains low.

With the aforementioned cooldown we will see a pattern shift towards a more favorable storm track to bring precipitation makers into the Northern Plains. Cluster analysis continues to favor a western U.S. upper trough early next week, but with a lot of uncertainty in how the trough develops heading into the middle and latter portions of next week. Currently our blended guidance is still depicting a broad 25 to 50 percent probability of 2 or more inches of snow across western and central ND over a 48 hour period mid next week. Until then, enjoy the mild and dry conditions that are expected to continue through this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and this evening at all TAF sites. Later tonight, mainly after midnight, there is a chance of fog again over eastern North Dakota. There are some indications that the fog may extend back west into central ND. Given the light surface flow can see the potential for some patchy shallow fog pretty much anywhere late tonight into Thursday morning. For now will only mention some shallow fog at KJMS but will continue to monitor. Winds generally south to west around 6 knots or less through the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.