textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are forecast through the upcoming week.

- Dry conditions continue through Thursday.

- Unsettled weather pattern to end the work week into the weekend, bringing low to medium precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Current surface analysis shows low sliding through northwest Manitoba, with frontal boundary dropping south through Manitoba/Eastern Saskatchewan into Northwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places flattened ridge over the central CONUS, with potent short wave sliding from Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Over our area, winds have been picking up a bit behind the pre-frontal trough, otherwise quiet weather continues.

For today, flattened ridge will remain over the area, as front continues to make its way to the southeast early in the day. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, though overall remaining above average. Surface high will settle over the area tonight in the wake of the cold front with winds going light. This will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s, with the coldest temperatures expected to be over areas that have already experienced a freeze.

For the first part of the week, a Pacific low will drop southerly along the west coast, loitering off the California shore mid-week. This will keep a general ridging pattern over our area, which amplifies some mid-week. Therefore, conditions will remain dry with seasonably mild temperatures, which gradually warm some mid-week with the amplifying ridge.

For the later part of the week, latest ensemble guidance are in agreement with bringing the low to the east, and opening it as it pushes over the Rockies, resulting in a surface low that will lift through the plains. Although timing varies some with these features, the overall pattern will be active resulting in low to medium chances for rain and possibly some thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.