textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Expected hazards include hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with a tornado or two possible.

- Smoke from distant wildfires will make skies hazy and may reduce surface visibility on Friday.

- Very hot conditions will return Friday through the weekend, with high temperatures and heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees.

- The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will create near-critical fire weather conditions on Friday and Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 948 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The forecast remains in good shape late this evening. A stray shower could clip the far southwest corner of the state over the next hour or two. Patchy to areas of smoke have been added to the forecast for Friday into Saturday, with the arrival of near-surface smoke anticipated with the cold frontal passage during the day Friday. The source region for the near-surface smoke is southern Alberta, where visibility is currently being reduced to around 2 to 5 miles.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Little to update early this evening. Satellite continues to show wildfire smoke across much of the state, and in southern Canada. This overall has limited our diurnal heating, keeping temperatures today under the forecast high. This trend could continue Friday and Saturday with a thicker layer of smoke forecast to move in.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The primary forecast challenges over the next several days are potential severe weather, the return of very hot conditions, and near critical fire weather.

West CONUS ridge will remain in place through Friday night before gradually sliding east over the weekend. Northwest flow aloft from the ridge will result in multiple shortwaves and WAA that could force occasional thunderstorm activity. An initial shortwave could produce a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the northwest and far southwest. In addition, showers and thunderstorms could develop later tonight and Friday morning. With limited instability overall, any storms through the night tonight should remain sub-severe.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is then possible Friday afternoon into the evening. With much higher instability and around 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear, a few of these storms could become severe. Will continue to message the potential for golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds. A tornado or two also remains possible, though is highly conditional on storm mode and whether or not storms can even become surface based to begin with. There remains some uncertainty in the severe threat overall. First, per the RAP, CIN never fully erodes. This may not completely inhibit convection. However, it could help result in storms being more elevated, which would inhibit the tornado threat for the forecast area as mentioned. CSU machine learning tends to back this scenario with no tornado outline. A second bit of uncertainty is smoke. While near surface smoke is more likely behind the surface front (more so a wind shift boundary), elevated smoke is likely to remain present across the entire forecast area Friday. If this helps limit high temperatures even a degree or two, it could be enough to inhibit more widespread thunderstorm development.

Beyond the severe weather threat Friday, occasional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend and into the next workweek. However, severe weather probabilities are currently low and mainly for the eastern half of the state where higher dewpoints (leading to increased instability) are expected to persist. Currently, none of the forecast area is outlined by SPC Saturday or Sunday, although CSU maintains marginal equivalent risk probs in the eastern half of the state Sunday. Wouldn't be surprised to see the eastern CWA clipped Sunday by SPC as well once it enters "Day 3" tonight.

Otherwise, aforementioned ridge will lead to very hot temperatures with highs in the 100s Friday through this weekend for much of the CWA, while the hottest temperatures are expected on Saturday. That said, heat indices Friday are expected to remain below 100 degrees as much drier air will be in place compared to last week, especially over the hottest parts of the state (the southwest). Therefore, not issuing a Heat Advisory for Friday at this time. However, even hotter temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday, and will most likely lead to some form of Heat headline when all is said and done. One final note is that these hot conditions, combined with breezy winds Friday and Sunday, will lead to near critical fire weather conditions in parts of the southwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR through most of the period, Friday afternoon a cold front will bring near surface wildfire smoke into the state and potentially cause MVFR VIS. The rest of tonight there is a slight chance of rain showers in the northwest and southwest, confidence is low enough to not include for now. Winds will remain southerly before turning to the west or northwest Friday and gust up to 30 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.