textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers possible across central North Dakota late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures continue through Thursday, then a warming trend develops Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The chance of showers across far southern North Dakota has ended for the evening. For this update, we introduced a 15 to 20 percent chance of showers across central and back into parts of northwest North Dakota, migrating from northwest to southeast late tonight through Thursday afternoon. This is in association with a more well- defined mid level shortwave forecast to drop down from Canada later tonight. Soundings show steep lapse rates within the cloud layer, but maximum QPF is not expected to exceed a few hundredths of an inch, and most areas are likely to receive no more than a trace. There is potential for snow mixing with the rain through mid Thursday morning, with no accumulation expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Northwesterly flow will continue through the period. There have been some diurnal showers and even a thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Majority of the thunderstorms and showers are along the North and South Dakota. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 40s north to the upper 50s south. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down below freezing across the state. An upper level shortwave is forecast to move through the region bringing in surface high pressure behind it. This short wave has a low chance (15%) of rain showers across the southeast tomorrow afternoon. Thursday afternoon temperatures are forecast to warm the mid 40s to lower 50s a few degrees cooler than today. Thursday night temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid 20s to the lower 30s as the surface high pressure passes overhead.

Temperatures are forecast to increase Friday as an upper level ridge builds across the Pacific Northwest. Increasing heights aloft will lead to warm temperatures across the state. Highs are forecast to warm in to the upper 50s and 60s. The Northern Plains will continue into northwesterly flow aloft through the weekend. The ridge will pass over the High Plains Saturday increasing heights over the Northern Plains. Thus, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s to lower 70s across the state, being the warmest day in the forecast period. A cold front will move through the region Saturday afternoon bringing windy conditions across the state. This could lead to near critical fire weather conditions as the minimum relative humidity is forecast to drop down around 20-30 percent across western and north central North Dakota. There could be some evening showers across the southeast Saturday along the frontal passage. Post frontal winds will continue into Sunday leading to breezy to windy conditions. Temperatures could cool a few degrees as a cooler airmass moves through the region.

Temperatures are forecast to decrease a few degrees next week. An upper low that is currently over the Hudson Bay will remain stalled into next keeping the Northern Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. However, and upper level ridge will build out west based on our proximity to the ridge or the upper low will determine the temperatures next week. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile spread is from the 50s to the lower 70s next week. Right now the NBM has temperatures forecast to sit in the lower 60s next week. There are chances for showers next week, but will remain quick with no significant precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A period of MVFR ceilings could impact areas from around KMOT to KJMS during the day Thursday. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are expected to prevail. There could also be scattered rain showers across central and eastern North Dakota late tonight through Thursday afternoon, possibly mixed with snow through mid morning. Impacts to aviation are unlikely, but a snow shower could cause a brief period of categorical visibility restrictions. The probability of showers at any given terminal is not yet high enough to mention in the TAFs. Northerly winds around 10 kts this evening will become lighter and more westerly overnight, then return to northerly around 10-15 kts on Thursday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.