textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog today with dense fog at times this morning. - Large contrast in temperatures today from near the Canadian border to the ND/SD border with seasonable temperatures Friday. - Low chances for snow and possibly a little rain mixed in tonight through Friday.

- Another modest warmup and windy conditions this weekend, then a cooling trend with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Widespread advection fog is present across most of the state. Overall, most observations remain in excess of a mile, however, there are pockets of dense fog being observed as well. Therefore, intend on maintaining the Dense Fog Advisory as-is for now, which remains in effect until 10 am CST/9 am MST. While fog may persist across much of the state for much of the day and possibly into tonight, coverage will likely decrease. Especially in the west. As an aside, scattered flurries have been observed across parts of the area and may occur so long as low-level stratus is present.

Otherwise, a frontal boundary currently analyzed as a cold frontal boundary is draped from west to east over northern South Dakota. However, the boundary is really more stationary in nature and will remain so through the day today. This boundary does seem further south than progged in previous days. Surface low pressure transiting through south Dakota today may push the frontal boundary slightly more north, perhaps with a southwest to northeast tilt. This will produce southerly flow that advects warmer air into the south central and southeast. Still, with widespread stratus and fog, NBM high temperatures seemed a little high today for the I94 corridor and south. Therefore, went with an NBM 10/25 blend which results in highs from the low 20s near the International border to the low 40s along the I94 corridor, and the low 50s along the ND/SD border.

Shortwave energy passing through the Northern Plains tonight through Friday may potentially produce light precipitation. Currently, this favors light snow in the northwest tonight and then light snow in the south central and east on Friday, though some rain or even freezing rain could mix in Friday morning. All in all, precipitation should be light with around a 30 to 50 percent chance of an inch of snow for either time period.

Beyond Friday, expect the return of mostly dry conditions and well above average temperatures this weekend. This will result in widespread highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the state, except the northeast, on Sunday. A cooling trend and more active pattern is then favored to start next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility are expected as low-level stratus and fog prevail across most of the state through the period. Conditions may begin improving at least somewhat in western North Dakota during the day Thursday. A few isolated flurries or a bit of brief light snow could fall under the stratus deck.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for NDZ022-023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051.