textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures through the weekend, though still above average.

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, followed by near-daily low to medium chances next week.

- Marginal (level 1 out of 5) severe weather threat Saturday afternoon/evening over far southwest North Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Going forecast remains on track with no changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the northern Rockies, with high stretching from the upper Midwest to the Ohio River Valley. Upper level analysis places low near the Sierra with ridge over the Midwest, resulting in southerly flow over our area.

For today, southeasterly winds continue over the area ahead of the aforementioned surface low, with moisture increasing. This will help quell many of the perpetual fire weather concerns, but some northern locations may remain a little drier, which when combined with the wind results in near critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will be notably cooler over the area than what we have seen over the past few days, but still remain about 10 degrees above average. Modest short wave sliding through southerly flow nudges the eastern part of our area, bringing low precipitation chances this afternoon.

Upper low pushes east/northeast overnight sliding over the central Rockies by Saturday. This will bring increasing rain chances, particularly as we get into later Saturday. Greatest chances (medium to high) will be over much of western and south central North Dakota. Enough instability will be in place for some thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms over far southwest North Dakota during this time period, but some question holds whether enough deep layer shear will be in place for storms to maintain any strength.

By Sunday upper low wraps into the northern Rockies nudging into the northern plains, with medium to high chances for rain showers and some thunderstorms continuing over western and much of central North Dakota, though chances do look to remain lower for the James River Valley up to the Turtle Mountains.

Overall pattern looks to remain unsettled going into the upcoming work week with daily chances for precipitation. Temperatures also look to hold near to above average.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this evening before MVFR ceiling spread from south to north overnight. Some IFR ceilings will be possible over southwest North Dakota. Isolated to scattered rain showers are possible later today through tonight, possibly bringing brief periods of reduced visibility.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.