textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures near to a little below average for the next several days.

- Mostly dry today, then low chances for rain tonight into Monday morning southwest and far south central.

- Medium to high chances for rain and snow southwest, south central and eastern North Dakota Monday afternoon through Monday night. Light snow accumulations are possible.

- Another system may bring low to medium chances for light rain and snow to northern portions of the forecast area late Tuesday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

High pressure remains situated over western and central North Dakota early this Sunday morning, with mostly clear skies and light winds. After a cool start, we warm into the 40s north to 50s south. Abundant sunshine is expected across the area this morning, with a slow increase in clouds across the south this afternoon.

Tonight, a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest lifts into the central High Plains. High pressure over the Northern Plains gets shunted north and east. This sets up a decent area of isentropic upglide from the Central Plains into the Mondak region. The surface high to our north keeps the upglide mostly out of the state, except the far southwest. Light rain may develop in the southwest tonight. If it does, expect it may be later than guidance suggests (late evening, but mainly after midnight). Late tonight into early Monday morning, we could see a mix of rain and snow, or a change over to all snow. Any amounts are expected to be negligible.

Better chances for precipitation will be later in the day Monday and Monday night as the aforementioned upper low lifts into the Dakotas. Overall there looks to be little change in the NBM ensemble guidance. The NBM 24 hour probability of at least an inch of snow, ending at 06Z Tuesday is around 30 to 60 percent from Bismarck southwest to Hettinger, and south to selfridge. This is very similar to yesterday. The medium range deterministic models are not as similar, compared to yesterday. They are not as compact with the upper low lifting into south central ND. Yesterday the low was more closed as it lifted into the area, but today it's more of an open wave with a little more shortwave energy swinging around the base of the trough, over southern and eastern SD. This shifts the higher qpf amounts farther southeast than yesterday. There's still qpf over the south central, but less. We'd still be in a more favored area for some light snow accumulations compared to the James River Valley, where precip here may remain mostly rain. A look at the latest RAP/HRRR precipitation forecasts that go out through 06Z Tuesday (the same ending time as the NBM 24 probability of an inch of snow with low to medium probabilities of an inch of snow in south central ND) indicate pretty much all qpf remaining south of the state through 06Z Tuesday, with the upper low well southeast of the medium range models. An extrapolation beyond 06Z Tuesday, would likely keep a good portion of the south central dry, except maybe portions of the JRV. Needless to say, there's still a lot of uncertainty with this system, but the trend for the qpf looks to be slow and farther southeast. The good thing is that we are looking at a pretty low impact event. We may still see some limited travel impacts, but for the most part, minimal impacts are expected at this time.

Another quick moving wave over the Pacific Northwest then swings across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains late Tuesday through early Wednesday. This upper low tracks from eastern Montana across northern ND. This will bring mostly low to medium chances for light rain and snow to central and especially northern portions of the forecast area Tuesday night. At this time qpf amounts look to be light, and any snow accumulations minimal.

We get a little break in the closed lows swinging through our area late in the work week. After Tuesday, the NBM ensemble temperatures show a pretty big jump, but ensemble spreads also increase quite a bit. Determinist models do indicate some upper level ridging over our area, downstream of another closed low in the eastern Pacific. It does look like some warmer temperatures may return mid to late week, but the extent of any warm-up remains a question.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period. Most clear overnight across the forecast area, and in the north Sunday. The southern half of the state will see increasing high and mid level clouds as a system approaches from the south. Low VFR conditions may be possible along the South Dakota border towards the end of the TAF period, well south to the southern TAF sites. A light and variable surface flow overnight will become east to northeast on Sunday 5 to 15 kts, and continue Sunday evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.