textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Isolated severe storms are possible along and south of the Highway 200 corridor this afternoon into this evening. - A cooling trend is expected through Friday, followed by a warming trend through the weekend and into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Only update this morning was to reduce the PoP chances this morning to almost zero, as there are no returns on the radar. THe latest NBM data is loading into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Partly cloudy skies across western and central ND this morning. Expect increasing mid and high clouds today. Only some minor adjustments to trim back pops this morning and adjusted sky cover some.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Currently, isolated thunderstorms were located over south central ND. This is within an area of 2000 J/kg of instability aloft with moderate to strong effective shear. The latest WV imagery and upper level heights show an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with a mean upper level ridge over central Montana. A speed max was located over eastern Montana with south central ND in the left front quad of the shortwave. This is enough forcing to continue to develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms over south central ND, with the instability aloft.

For today, as this speed max pushed east through the state, think there may be a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through the day. SPC has placed a marginal risk of severe storms mainly along and south of the Highway 200 corridor today. Can't really argue with this as the one thing that seems most certain this morning is the instability today is forecast to be much lower north of the Highway 200 corridor. There may still be showers or a few thunderstorms, but right now forecast soundings don't support severe storms in the north. As you get south of the Highway 200 corridor, things get muddled pretty quickly.

The southwest and south central look to be the most unstable this afternoon with 1500-3000 J/Kg of MUCape. Shear is sufficient at around 40 knots, but increases as you go north from southern into central and northern ND. There are a few limiting factors. With the aforementioned shortwave there will be more clouds around today. The RAP also indicates the potential for some stratus today over the southern half of the CWA, which could limit instability. In general, the instability may not be as great as yesterday, when we had highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the mid and upper 60s in southwest and south central ND. Today we are expecting highs in the lower to mid 80s with dew point in the low to mid 60s. However, instability will be sufficient and with the moderate to strong shear, we will have the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon into this evening. The main question is where and when. With the shortwave moving through we see continued convection over the south central early this morning, and this may spread north and east today. Then as the RRQ of the shortwave moves across the area later today, this may provide the forcing for ascent needed to initiate convection. The interface of the strong instability to the south and the strong shear to the north would be an ideal area for severe convection today. The main hazards being large hail to golfball size and winds to 60 mph, if we can get a sustained updraft. The far southwest will be the most unstable and convection developing over southeast Montana may move into southwest ND. The environment would be favorable for quick development with steep lapse rates. With a broad southwest upper flow, it's hard to say where and when convection may develop and CAMS are bouncing around a bit. Nevertheless, there will be a threat for strong to severe storms today.

Once convection ends today/this evening, we cool down a bit for Thursday and especially Friday. We remain in a favorable southwest upper flow over the far west on Thursday, then eventually across the area Friday, but with less instability, the threat for strong to severe storms will be low. Currently SPC has only general thunderstorms forecast for Thursday and Friday. After Friday we begin a slow warming trend through the weekend and into next week. Saturday and Sunday may end up being mostly dry before near daily chances for thunderstorms return early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 12Z TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon into this evening across western and central ND. Any thunderstorms will contain gusty and erratic winds with the potential for MVFR to IFR visibilities.

KDIK communication problems continue. Included AMD NOT SKED.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.