textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs in the 40s and 50s in the Turtle Mountains area, and 50s to 70s across the rest of western and central North Dakota.

- Mostly dry conditions through the rest of the work week, with low chances for precipitation returning over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

No significant changes are needed for this update. Current conditions and trends have been blended into the forecast. Did add a patchy fog mention from the Turtle Mountains to the Devils Lake Basin for tonight through mid Wednesday morning. Can already see some fog trying to develop in Towner County, and surrounding areas have low surface dewpoint depressions and light winds under a mostly clear sky. CAMs also indicate fog developing in their visibility fields. Skeptical that this will end up being a dense fog event though due to the broad warm air advection regime with low RH directly above the near-surface layer.

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A streak of very light rain/freezing rain that had formed from around Minot to Ellendale during the mid to late afternoon has mostly dissipated. Despite higher radar reflectivity at times, webcams consistently showed only a few raindrops, and imagery of the skyline depicted virga. A few runs of the HRRR and RAP have been simulating a few rain or freezing rain showers passing through the area from northwest to southeast overnight, but forcing looks weak and deeper layer moisture looks limited. Therefore, will not add a mention of this to any other forecast products at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Snow has moved off into Minnesota bringing forth light snow accumulations across the central half of the state. Temperatures have warmed above freezing in the central half and the 50s out west as warm front moves through the region. This is all due to an upper level ridge building across the west coast and warm down sloping winds from the Northern Rockies. Overnight lows are forecast to warm into the upper 20s in the Turtle Mountains down to the upper 30s out west.

Warm temperatures will persist through the week quickly eating away at the snow pack across the central and western half of the state. This will be accelerated by highs in the 50s and 60s across much of the state and above freezing overnight lows. The upper level ridge will strengthen over AZ by the middle of the week. Temperatures are forecast to be the warmest Thursday through Saturday across the Northern Plains with highs ranging in the 50s across the Turtle Mountains to the 60s and 70s in the remainder of the state. The NBM 25th percentile for high temperatures at KBIS is above 65 degree for Thursday and Friday down to 49 degrees as a system move into the area Saturday. The NBM 75th percentile ranges from 73 Thursday, 78 Friday, and 76 Saturday. Thus there is very high confidence in warm weather this week. Saturday becomes more of the question, is the system going to role through the region earlier or later. The system this weekend will bring in slight chances for precipitation across the state and cooler weather. Temperatures are forecast to drop down to near normal before warming up to above normal early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Patchy fog could develop in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains overnight tonight, while low-level stratus may impact the north central and the James River Valley towards the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. One other note is that LLWS appears to be impacting parts of the southwest at this time, including KDIK, though should diminish over the next few hours.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.