textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Forecast high temperatures today range from below normal in central North Dakota (20s) to above normal in the west (around 35 to 40).

- A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday, when most of western and central North Dakota could see highs in the 50s and 60s. Cooler temperatures are then favored to end the work week.

- Mostly dry through Wednesday followed by low to medium chances for rain and snow Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1257 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Areas of clouds continue to move through central and parts of western North Dakota. Otherwise, quiet conditions continue.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For mid-morning update, main change was to continue low snow chances over southern portions of the area through the morning as some light reflectivity continues to show up on radar. With that said, if anything were to fall, it would be quite minimal.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Cloud cover remains a challenging aspect of the forecast early this morning, especially across the north. Current observations and trends were blended into the forecast, but overall confidence remains low. There also continues to be flurries observed at times underneath the lower stratus in north central and now southern North Dakota as well. Furthermore, radar reflectivity has recently increased from around Dickinson to Fort Yates in response to low level warm air advection and mid level frontogenesis. The 12Z Bismarck RAOB shows plenty of dry air still to work through, but most CAMs are now showing a band of light snow (far weaker than what occurred yesterday) moving along and south of I-94 after sunrise into the early afternoon. A 20 percent chance of light snow was introduced with this update. Any new accumulations are expected to remain under half an inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Northwest cyclonic flow resides over the Northern Plains early this morning, with a surface high pressure centered over the northern Red River Valley. Broad low level warm air advection is promoting areas of clouds over the state, one of which has been consistently producing scattered flurries in north central North Dakota since late last evening. This specific batch of clouds/flurries is likely to dissipate by mid morning as 925 mb warm air advection wanes. But 850 mb warm air advection is forecast to increase and be maintained across the area through today, which could result in more clouds than sun, particularly in the morning and in central North Dakota into the afternoon. That expectation paired with a fresh snowpack has prompted us to decrease our high temperature forecast for today where the heaviest snow fell over south central North Dakota, with mostly 20s expected. North central North Dakota is also forecast to see highs in the 20s this afternoon, with western parts of the state more likely to reach the 30s and lower 40s. Isentropic ascent may assist the forcing from low level warm air advection to produce some flurries across southern North Dakota this morning and early afternoon. An increase in southerly flow tonight in response to the departing surface high will keep overnight lows mostly in the teens, with 20s in the far southwest.

From Monday through Wednesday, a split flow pattern is forecast to evolve with the northern stream remaining up in Canada while a southern stream shortwave digs into the Central Rockies and Plains. This should give us a period of dry weather with a heavily favored warming trend to well above normal temperatures, culminating in highs in the 50s and 60s on Wednesday outside of far north central and northeast parts of the state. For Monday, we once again decreased the high temperature forecast to a blend of the 25th and 50th percentiles of the NBM distribution where the heaviest snow fell in south central North Dakota. This still places highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s, so no deviations from the deterministic NBM guidance were made beyond Monday.

Ensemble spread begins to increase on Thursday and Friday, but there are common themes of both a) a notable cool down from Wednesday and b) a shortwave crossing the Northern Plains. Cluster analysis reveals that the GEFS strongly favors a more progressive wave that induces surface cyclogenesis near the Black Hills. This would be a colder and wetter/snowier solution for western and central North Dakota than the other favored outcome of a lower amplitude northern stream shortwave within a continuation of the split flow regime. But even in the GEFS- heavy clusters, there is still only a 20 to 40 percent chance for exceeding one inch of snow (using a 10:1 snow ratio). It may be worth noting though that there is a small minority cluster (around 10 percent total ensemble membership) that shows a 20 to 30 percent chance of at least 0.5" liquid falling as snow, akin to output of the 00Z deterministic GFS. Also worth noting is that clusters that are not dominated by the GEFS do hint at a Central Plains to Upper Mississippi River Valley track of a Colorado low system Friday into Saturday that could infringe southern and eastern parts of North Dakota.

The favored synoptic pattern for next weekend includes a strong cutoff low over Baja California with a quasi-zonal northern stream along the US-Canadian border. While temperature spread remains quite large, NBM guidance would favor a slight warmup for the weekend. The NBM does introduce low chances for rain/snow on Sunday, but predictability at this time range remains low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Localized MVFR ceilings will remain through this afternoon over various parts of western and central North Dakota. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.