textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today through this evening, mainly across north central and eastern portions. The threat for severe weather is low.

- Breezy northwest winds will be found today, with gusts near 30 mph. Breezy southeast winds to be found this weekend.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures this weekend. A few showers and thunderstorms in the west and southwest Saturday evening through Saturday night. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances expected Sunday.

- A gradual warming trend through next week, along with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 836 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A few showers linger in the north central and a few more could develop this morning. Therefore, adjusted PoPs through this morning to match the latest radar trends. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. A few showers are lingering in northeastern portions this morning. This area and some eastern areas could see isolated to scattered activity at times today. Otherwise look for mainly dry conditions and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A shortwave moving through northwest flow will bring showers and a few thunderstorms across north central and eastern portions this morning. This northwest flow then lingers aloft for the remainder of the day, and combined with some weak instability could bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day, especially in the northeast. The threat for severe weather is low today. Temperatures will remain near 70 degrees today for most areas, with slightly cooler temperatures to the more cloudy areas north and east. The stacked northwest flow from the surface to the higher levels could also bring some breezy winds today, with gusts near 30 mph. Short of advisory criteria but still noticeable. Ridge of high pressure moves in tonight, bringing clearing skies and light winds. Cooler temperatures will also be found tonight, with lows in the 40s. Clear skies and these cooler temperatures could provide for some patchy fog tonight, although confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast at this time.

Ridge pushes eastward on Saturday, with southeasterly flow developing in its wake. This could lead to some breezy winds across the west, and warming temperatures into the 70s for most. Mainly dry conditions are expected during the day Saturday. Saturday evening through Saturday night, developing surface low, and a split trough feature aloft could bring some showers and thunderstorms to the southwest and perhaps some western portions. Depending on where the axis of instability sets up, an isolated strong storm is possible in the southwest, however, SPC just has general thunderstorm risk in these areas for now. The more organized low in the mentioned split feature then moves through Sunday. This will bring more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances, with cooler temperatures, and continued breezy east to southeast winds. Instability looks limited with the wave, thus the threat for severe weather will remain low on Sunday.

The low that moves into the area Sunday stalls across the region and brings unsettled and cooler conditions to start next week on Monday, and possibly lingering through Tuesday. A shift to breezy westerly winds can also be expected early next week as this system moves through. The threat for severe weather still looks to remain low given an overall lack of instability. Confidence is still moderate to high in a warming trend mid to late next week. Most clusters bring brief ridging which should also bring a period of mainly dry conditions around mid week. The majority of clusters then moves this ridge eastward sometime later next week which could return a more unsettled weather with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. CSU- MLP also starting to hint at the return of at least isolated strong to severe storms with this warmer and unsettled pattern which will be worth monitoring later next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Breezy northwest winds are expected for all sites today. Cloud ceilings will range from VFR to low VFR today, with perhaps some MVFR ceilings at times. Some showers may be found in northeastern and portions of eastern North Dakota, although are not expected at any TAF sites at this time. Breezy winds and lingering precipitation chances diminish Friday evening, with VFR conditions also expected. Light and variable winds are expected through tonight, with some western sites seeing winds become southeasterly.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.