textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Sunday will be the warmest day, with highs in the upper 30s northeast to around 60 southwest.

- 20 to 40 percent chance for light rain and snow early next week. Temperatures trend cooler next week, but remain above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

An upper level ridge out west continues to build across the Northern Rockies. This has brought forth warmer weather. A warm front has moved into the region this afternoon switching wind to westerly across Montana and western North Dakota. The warm front has pushed across the western half of the state, as of 20Z, warming sites in the west into the upper 40s so far this afternoon pushing low stratus eastward. Now the low stratus is forecast to stall out later tonight across the eastern half of the state potential growing westward. Patchy fog could form across the northwest and central half of the state tonight into tomorrow morning. Hi-Res models have patchy fog forming around the Missouri River Valley. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to drop down into the upper teens in the Red River Valley and and the slightly above freezing in the southwest.

Tomorrow temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to lower 60s in the southwest with the remainder of the warning area in the 40s. Westerly winds and clearing skies support warm temperatures across the southwest as the ridge axis passes overhead. Record temperatures are possible across the western half of the state including Williston, Dickinson, and Minot while Bismarck will have a harder time reaching the record as it is on the edge of the thermal ridge. Record temperatures are dependent on clearing skies if skies remain overcast there is a chance temperatures staying on the cooler side. The upper level ridge will flatten into zonal flow as a clipper passes to the North Monday. This will bring forth cooler temperatures into the region, however temperatures are forecast to remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Some of the Hi-Res models are hinting at a banded precipitation event taking place Monday while the global models and the NBM have lower chances for precipitation. Precipitation chances are forecast to be a rain snow mix during the day and snow overnight. There is still quiet a bit of uncertainty with this event.

Quasi-zonal pattern will continue through the middle of the week with chances 20 to 40 percent for rain and snow Wed into Thu. Persistent above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of next week as well with temperatures in the 40s. Some deterministic models have been hinting at a strong upper level low moving across the Southern/Central Plains, but the models seem to flip flop daily on this system in the extended. The ensembles are not in agreement with any solutions for next weekend so stay up to date with the latest forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Low stratus continues to clear across the west and south this afternoon. Most of the sites will clear to VFR this afternoon with Mvfr conditions returning tonight. KMOT will likely be one of the only sites that remains MVFR through the period. There is some model inconsistency with fog forming tonight. The most likely areas will be along the Missouri River and north central North Dakota. Due to uncertainty fog was left out of the TAFs for now. Winds will remain out of the southwest to west by tomorrow afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.