textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds and fog return overnight, lingering into Saturday.

- Near to above average temperatures are favored through the middle of next week. High temperatures will be dependent on low cloud cover the next few days.

- Low chances for light rain and drizzle tonight through Sunday, then high chances for rain Sunday night through Monday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Low clouds continue to expand northeastward where much of the forecast area will be covered by low clouds by tomorrow morning. Patchy dense fog is possible tonight and early tomorrow morning across the southwest likely expanding into the south central and northwest. No major updates are needed to the forecast as the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Current surface analysis places low over the Great Basin nudging towards the northern Rockies, while high is situated over the southern Prairie Provinces into the upper Midwest. Upper level analysis places low off the Pacific Northwest, with ridge over the central/northern plains. Over our area, light easterly flow is keeping some low clouds/fog anchored over parts of southwest North Dakota. The fog has remained dense over far southwest North Dakota where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in places through 1PM MDT, but some improvement in visibility has been noted on area webcams and observations so plan to let it expire at that time.

For the rest of today into tonight, low level southeast flow remains in place, with clouds and some fog returning from southwest to northeast overnight. A variety of weak waves lifting ahead of aforementioned upper trough may bring a few weak light showers to the area, in addition to some possible drizzle given the light upslope moist low level flow.

As we get into tomorrow, light upslope flow continues with clouds lingering over the area. Main concern with this is its influence on temperatures as think latest NBM is much too optimistic with its high temperature forecast. Therefore, have leaned towards NBM10 which still may be too optimistic over the south central/southwest, but at least it starts the downward trend. Have also kept the potential for fog in the forecast through mid-day. Given the light southeasterly low level flow continuing into Saturday night and Sunday morning, have returned the fog throughout the area.

Precipitation chances will be on a significant increase Sunday night into Monday as the aforementioned upper low works its way over the Rockies, and a surface low spins up to the lee of the Central Rockies and ejects into the central plains. This looks to bring widespread precipitation to the area, though temperature profiles remain warm enough so this should remain liquid. A few rumbles of thunder from an elevated thunderstorms can not be ruled out over southern portions of the area.

Thereafter some questions remain with the forecast as guidance has been leaning towards ridging, but some ensemble members lean towards a bit more active pattern. With that said, temperatures look to remain seasonal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Low clouds continue to linger across the southwest and will expand northeastward tonight bringing forth low clouds across the region. These low clouds will lower tonight ushering in IFR conditions across the state. Fog is forecast to fill in across the southwest mainly impacting KDIK, but fog could form at other TAF terminals early tomorrow morning. Winds will remain out of the east and ceiling will raise slightly by tomorrow afternoon bringing back MVFR conditions, but low clouds will likely linger through the weekend.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.