textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain tapering off over central ND tonight. Chances for rain continue across portions of the James River Valley on Tuesday.

- Breezy to windy southwest, central and east tonight, and for southeast North Dakota on Tuesday. - Near to above normal temperatures and dry weather favored for the middle to later portions of this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 950 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

We cancelled the Wind Advisory for the far southwest and south central. It had been a couple of hours since we hit advisory criteria gusts, and winds will continue to slowly subside overnight. As mentioned in the previous update, we bumped up temperatures due to the widespread stratus. We also added some patchy fog after midnight in the far west, as clear skies have reached the border, with clear skies in Montana. However, there is a blob of lower stratus in southeast Saskatchewan dropping south that may cloud things back up. Also, some patchy fog was reported in Plentywood MT. Anywhere in the west that could clear up, may see some fog develop. Winds in the far west have dropped off quite a bit so this seems a reasonable solution of skies remain clear for a while.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the early evening update we adjusted pops based on latest radar and observations. We also bumped up low temperatures for tonight. With widespread stratus expected to linger through the night, the NBM low temperatures look a little too low. Otherwise no significant changes needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently, long wave upper level trough over the central CONUS with embedded lows over eastern North Dakota and the Southern Plains. Associated sfc trough over eastern South Dakota extends north-northeast into western Minnesota. Widespread rain continues over most areas of western and central North Dakota, but has mainly diminished over the northwest outside of a few sprinkles. This trend will continue from northwest to southeast for the rest of today and tonight, as the main forcing shifts to the east. Thus far have received over an inch of rainfall in parts of west central North Dakota, and especially in the southeast/James River Valley where an inch to over an inch and a quarter has been observed. Still on track to maybe seeing upwards to 2 inches of rain across parts of the James Valley through tonight/Tue daytime.

On the backside of the aforementioned sfc trough, northerly winds have increased and will continue to be gusty into the evening hours. Strongest winds still expected far southwest and far south central, where the Wind Advisory remains in effect till 06Z tonight.

Surface high pressures builds into the western Dakotas on Tuesday, along with a quasi-omega ridge forming over the Northern Rockies, and the Southern Plains upper low lifting north-northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley region. This may linger wrap around showers over my southeast for Tuesday and maybe even for Tuesday night and Wednesday as it is projected to stall over Minnesota. Clearing over at least the western half of the region Tue and Wed. Cooler/near to slightly below normal highs forecast for Tue (40s), then slowly warming on Wed (mid 40s to lower 50s).

Weak ridging builds into the central CONUS for the later period of the week, maintaining mainly dry weather and temperatures moderating to a several degrees above normal by the end of the week (low/mid 50s for Friday forecast). Thereafter, ensembles show a progressive upper level pattern thus higher level of uncertainty in the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 950 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain has ended over western ND and much of north central ND. Rain will continue to taper across the south central and into the James River Valley overnight. Widespread stratus is expected to linger through the night with mainly IFR to LIFR ceilings. The far west could see some clearing overnight, but also may fog back in if skies do clear. There is also an area of stratus dropping south from Saskatchewan that may bring stratus back to the far west, at least for portions of the overnight hours. Look for improving ceilings from west to east as low stratus burns off on Tuesday. IFR_MVFR ceilings may linger over the southern James River Valley through the entire TAF period.

North to northwest winds 15 to 30 kts diminishing west but continuing central ND through the night. Winds diminish central Tuesday and Tuesday evening in the James River Valley.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.