textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog is possible across the southwest through tonight.

- A warming trend to well above average temperatures is favored through early next week.

- Dry through early next week, with low to medium chances for precipitation returning mid to late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Dense fog continues to be reported in Bowman county, with patchy to areas of fog showing up on webcams in surrounding counties. Hi-res guidance showing fog to linger in these areas tonight into Saturday morning, thus issued a Dense Fog Advisory for this time period. There is the possibility for a northern progression of fog per this same hi-res guidance. However, fog has not been reported in these areas at this time. Thus will keep monitoring for any needed expansion.

UPDATE Issued at 612 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Some fog is being reported across southwestern portions of the state, although for now appears to be localized. Low clouds will likely persist through the night in these and many western areas. Uncertainty remains on how much fog will be found given elevated winds expected through the night. For now have issued an SPS across southwestern portions where fog is being reported or noticed on web cameras. If fog shows sign of spreading and persisting, then perhaps a Fog Advisory will be needed tonight. Will continue to monitor for this fog potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

An omega blocking pattern over the central CONUS continues to promote dry and mild conditions across western and central North Dakota today. Moderate low level saturation is expected to allow at least patchy cloud cover over portions of the southwest and south central through the day today. Have opted to slightly lower high temperatures here due to the prevailing cloud cover, though strong southerly surface winds will still raise temperatures into the 40s. With clear skies across much of central North Dakota, have opted to blend in (1:1 ratio) some NBM 90th to bump up temperatures here. The resulting picture is of highs in the upper 30s east to the upper 40s to to lower 50s west. Breezy south to southeast winds, sustained around 20 to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 40 MPH in the southwest, is expected to develop late this morning and persist through much of the day as a 850mb jet slides across the region, and as the surface pressure gradient tightens between a surface high over northern Minnesota, and as lee cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies spits out of low center into central Montana. Lingering low level saturation across the southwest overnight tonight may allow another round of fog to develop as advertised by the odd short term CAM, though this potential is a little more limited as gusty linger overnight. Thus any fog that does develop is expected to be fairly patchy, and more limited to where the stratus deck scrapes more elevated terrain. With increased cloud cover overnight, low temperatures are forecast to remain in the 20s to lower 30s.

Mild conditions continue through the weekend as the Omega Block is slowly ejected eastward ahead of a pacific northwestern trough/opening low. High temperatures warm from the 40s to lower 50s on Saturday broadly into the 50s by Sunday as flow aloft becomes increasingly southwesterly. With the increasingly dry air streaming in across the region, low level stratus across much of the area Saturday morning will gradually diminish from southwest to northeast through Saturday evening into early Sunday, leaning mostly sunny conditions for Sunday afternoon. Breezy south to southeast winds, with sustained speeds up to 25 to 30 MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH, are broadly expected across the area on Saturday as a tight pressure gradient remains draped across the northern Plains. As this gradient is displaced further east, breezy south winds will linger south central North Dakota Sunday afternoon, with winds become relatively light (gusting as high as 15 to 20 MPH) across the west and north central.

Looking ahead, southwesterly flow over the northern Plains is expected to persist through the mid week and will continue to promote mild and dry conditions through at least Wednesday. High temperatures through this period will linger broadly in the 50s, while overnight lows are forecast in the 30s. Starting Wednesday, low to medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for precipitation begins to build in across the region as the ensemble advertises another broad Pacific Trough/closed off low crossing the Rockies into the northern Plains. There remains a large amount of discord between ensemble members on outcomes through this period, depending on the relative track of the potential low as it passes through the region. Cluster analysis reveals three scenarios at this time. The first (approximately 45 percent of members) favors fairly dry conditions through the later half of the week as the upper level trough/low passes further to the north and west of the forecast area. Some limited wrap-around light precpitation will be possible, especially across the northwest, but overall QPF would be limited (less than 0.10") in this scenario, and little to no snow accumulation would be anticipated. Scenario 2 (approximately 35 percent of ensemble members) would be slightly cooler and wetter, with an open wave passing along a much more southerly track across the region, allowing for more QPF (approaching 0.25-0.5" in total through the weekend). While some light snow accumulations can be anticipated across the west in this scenario, warm day-time temperatures with highs well into the 40s will limit and potential winter-weather impacts. Scenario 3 (approximately 20 percent of members) would be the most impactful of the three solutions, will a slow-moving closed off upper level low tracking across the northern Plains. Residence time of this system would promote the highest potential QPF overall (approaching 0.5-0.75"). With this system ingesting much more cool air out of the Canadian Prairies, limiting high temperatures into the 30s by Friday/Saturday, some decent snowfall accumulation would be possible, with a low chance for 2+ inches of snowfall across western North Dakota through the weekend. With all that said, there are significant dispersion issues with these most recent clusters, with them being well stratified by their parent model families (scenario 1 is mainly GEPS with some ENS, scenario 2 is basically the GEFS, and, and scenario 3 is mainly ENS with some GEPs), so take all of this with a significant grain of salt. All that can really be said is that there likely will be a pattern shift in the later half of the week, with cooler temperatures and some chances for precpitation anticipated Wednesday into the early weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Increasing clouds could bring some MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight across most sites, with the exception of those in the east including KJMS where VFR conditions are forecast through the night. Patchy to areas of fog are also possible in the west tonight into Saturday morning, although confidence was too low to include fog at this time. A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are then expected through the day on Saturday. Increasing southeasterly winds will also be found on Saturday, with some low level wind shear possible at times. Confidence was not high enough to include this low level wind shear at this time.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for NDZ040-041-043- 044.