textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog portions of the central this overnight and possibly into Wednesday morning. - Mild and dry weather with a warming trend continuing for most areas through Wednesday.

- Cooler Thursday and Friday with low chances for rain and snow.

- Another modest warmup favored for this weekend, then cooler with increasing chances for precipitation early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1154 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Patchy dense fog remains over portions of central North Dakota, including the James River Valley, therefore the Dense Fog Advisory looks good at this time. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

We ended up issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for eastern portions of central ND. Guidance continues to indicate the fog will dissipate, and maybe it will but thought it best to issue the Advisory and then cancel early if need be, rather than continuing with SPS's. Other than the fog, a rather quiet night. Thick cirrus now pretty much covers the entire CWA so there's pretty much no way to if the fog is dissipating, or not. Another reason to just go ahead with an Advisory. With the widespread cirrus, we bumped sky cover up quite a bit for tonight. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Low stratus and fog remains over portions of central ND, mainly around the James Rover Valley, and northward into north central ND. The west and south central have lost the low stratus but dense high clouds are now moving in. Any westward extension of the stratus/fog this evening will be hard to discern with the rapidly approaching cirrus. In general though, the short term models indicate the low level moisture lifting north and east later this evening and overnight. Other than some minor adjustments to sky cover, no changes to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

This afternoon, the synoptic pattern was characterized by broad troughing over the southern Canadian Prairies and much of the CONUS, with an embedded trough passing over the Rockies. At the surface, a low pressure was centered well to our northwest, with relatively benign flow across the Dakotas around a weak stationary front placed across the state. Warmer air and a fresh, melting snowpack has led to plentiful boundary layer moisture that has resulted in low stratus and patchy fog through the afternoon so far. Visibilities improved enough from this morning so that an advisory this afternoon has not been warranted, but we have had a Special Weather Statement in effect to cover the occasional significantly reduced visibility from patchy fog. Temperatures range quite a bit across the forecast area this afternoon, with highs in the lower 20s north central to the lower 60s southwest.

We did add in a mention of fog to the gridded forecast tonight for the north central through the James River Valley area. High-res guidance is split on if present moisture will manifest in low stratus or in actual fog with visibility reductions, so we went with patchy fog for now until we are more confident in the outcome. Forecast lows are generally in the lower 20s to lower 30s, but if low stratus persists, will not see temperatures drop as much underneath the cloud deck.

A shallow upper ridge and low-level warm air advection will help boost temperatures on Wednesday, although lingering cloud cover across the north will keep temperatures cooler, in the 30s. Elsewhere, expect above average highs, generally in the 50s for areas south of the Missouri River and along the I-94 corridor, and some lower 60s far southwest. Flow aloft turns more southwesterly to end the work week with a few different impulses moving through the mean flow, although blended POPs remain highest outside of the forecast area. These low precipitation chances could manifest in rain, snow, or a wintry mix, depending on the time and location precipitation occurs. A cold frontal passage will start to drop temperatures on Thursday but it will be more noticeable on Friday, when highs drop back into the 30s.

Ensemble clusters indicate the most likely solution is for split flow to develop across the CONUS this weekend, with the northern stream being dominated by quasizonal flow as we head into next work week. The ECMWF EFI continues to marginally highlight wind potential with a small shift of tails this weekend, indicating we're favored for strong winds but at this point low odds for reaching widespread advisory criteria. NBM temperature percentiles show small spread for Saturday and Sunday, with well above average temperatures expected. Forecast highs peak mainly in the 50s on Sunday before there is increasing spread on MOnday ahead of the next approaching system, as ridging builds off the western CONUS coast and flow turns more northwesterly across the Dakotas in response. Blended POPs produce steady, overall low chances for precipitation starting late in the weekend and continuing through the first beginning of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 935 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

LIFR ceilings and visibilities over portions of central ND including KJMS. Remaining TAF sites are VFR to begin the 06Z TAF period. Guidance suggests that fog will lift north and east overnight, thus improvements at KJMS later this evening or early overnight. However some guidance also suggests LIFR conditions lingering longer. Tough call here but will probably split the difference or lean a bit toward an earlier clearing. Other TAF sites should remain out of stratus for most of tonight although KMOT will be closest to the stratus and the first to see it return as stratus is forecast to drop back south tomorrow. Variable winds through the period around 10 knots or less. Winds start out southerly tonight and then turn northeast Wednesday 10 to 20 knots.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ012-013-022- 023-025-036-037-048-051.