textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well below normal temperatures tonight with lows mainly in the 20s.

- Temperatures trend warmer through this weekend and into the middle of next week, along with dry conditions.

- Active weather pattern is favored after Wednesday of next week, along with a cooling trend.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Limited updates needed early this evening. Lingering trough continues to bring some lower level clouds this evening for a few areas while some others are starting to see clouds dissipate. Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover as a result. Areas with lingering low clouds could see a few flurries through the night. Some gusty winds also continue early this evening, with a few sites near advisory level. These winds are becoming more scattered and expected to dissipate after sunset, thus will hold off on any Wind Advisories for now.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over southern Saskatchewan continues move eastward. As the low moves east of the state wrap around snow showers are possible this afternoon and windy conditions. There could be some wind gusts up to 40 mph as the initial winds mix down to the surface from the mixed layer driven by dry air aloft. This upper level low will bring in a colder air mass this weekend. Tonight overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 20s.

Cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the Northern Plains as the low moves slowly eastward with an embed shortwave. This will result in a low chance for rain showers tomorrow as the shortwave transits the jet stream. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to warm back into the 40s across much of the state, but remain well below normal for this time of year, which is around the mid to upper 50s. Saturday night low temperatures are forecast to drop down into 20s.

An upper level ridge building over Western CONUS will move through the region early next week. This will bring a pattern change with warmer and drier conditions. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 60s to 70s Monday and 70s to 80s by Wednesday. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile range from 83 to 90 for KBIS Wednesday as the ridge axis moves overhead. Temperatures will trend downward after Wednesday as forecast ensembles have broad trough digging across the Plains by the end of the week. CSU and NSSL Machine do have some machine learning probs for a low chance of severe weather Wednesday and Thursday. This will be all dependent on the timing and location of the upper trough next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Low clouds could bring some MVFR to low VFR ceilings through this evening. Clouds should diminish somewhat tonight, although some sites could still see some FEW to SCT lower clouds at these same MVFR to low VFR ceilings. Any sites with lower clouds could also see some snow flurries. Saturday will see a mix of SCT to BKN to perhaps OVC clouds at times. Ceilings for these clouds will generally be VFR although could lower to MVFR at times. Scattered light rain or snow showers are also possible Saturday afternoon, although confidence was not high enough to include at this time. Gusty northwest winds will remain through this evening, diminishing somewhat tonight then increasing again on Saturday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.