textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures today, quickly falling to below normal on Thursday, then a warming trend back to above normal through the weekend. - Low chances for light rain across northern North Dakota this morning, with freezing rain possible along the International Border.

- Medium chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening, possibly changing to snow before ending Thursday morning.

- Intermittent breezy to windy conditions this week, mainly today and Thursday.

- A short window of near critical fire weather conditions in the northwest this afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A stationary front is draped across the forecast area this morning, and some light rain ahead of it moved through the south central part of the state. To the north, an area of low stratus and dense fog has been persistent across the Burke to Ward County area, with some light radar returns as well in Renville County. Generally looks like rain from NDDOT webcams and with surface temperatures below freezing, could see some slick spots on roads in far northern North Dakota through the morning, including the Turtle Mountains area.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Rain continues to trek across central North Dakota moving into the Bismarck area in the next hour. Patchy fog is forming across the north central. No updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Upper level ridging continues across the Western CONUS keeping the Northern Plains on the eastern periphery in northwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave continues to move through the region bringing forth rain across the northwest. Temperatures are around 30 degrees in the Turtle Mountains so once precipitation makes it's way eastward, freezing rain is possible in the Turtle Mountains. This could lead to light accumulation of freezing rain resulting in a light glaze across elevated surfaces. Now temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s across the northeast to the lower 70s in the southwest as a warm front lifts through the area. Windy westerly winds are forecast across the northwest due to a tight surface pressure gradient from an approaching surface low. This could lead to a brief window of near critical fire weather conditions across the northwest. Although, the threat for near critical fire weather conditions looks to be on the lower end as they continue to receive rain this morning and minimum relative humidity is forecast to be above 30 percent across the the north. There is a low chance of thunderstorms this afternoon as there is a little bit of instability across the region. CAMS produce convection this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes through the region being the lifting mechanism for storms. The frontal passage will bring windy conditions to portions of central and eastern North Dakota eastern North Dakota late tonight.

Windy conditions will persist through Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to drop below normal in the 20s across the north and the lower 40s in the south. There could be a rain snow mix across the southern half of the state Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon into Friday night another shortwave is forecast to drop out of northwesterly flow bringing a chance of light snow across the north. Temperatures are forecast to rebound Friday closer to near normal with above normal temperatures forecast to return this weekend. With these conditions, the weekend is forecast to remain dry. The pattern could become active again by the middle of next week as troughing returns to Western CONUS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A system is slowly moving across the central half of the state this morning. Rain is possible through the morning across across the central half of the state. There also could be some low clouds that move into the KMOT area this morning bringing forth MVFR to IFR conditions. Patchy fog has formed in the north central but will clear out later this morning. So far fog has stayed north of KMOT. Gusty winds around 30kt are possible for KXWA this afternoon as the system moves through the region. VFR conditions will continue across this afternoon and evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.