textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today, mainly in the north and east.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Friday into this weekend, with strong to severe storms possible.

- Temperatures remain at or slightly below normal through Friday, then will be closer to normal this weekend.

- Temperatures trend warmer next week, with more isolated/slight chances for precipitation favored.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Quasi-zonal flow will continue across the Northern Rockies spilling into the Northern Plains. An upper level low continues to spin over Northern Minnesota resulting in scattered cumulus field across the state. This cyclonic flow aloft will also lead to a low chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the northern and eastern half of the state. Clouds will clear out tonight across the west as surface high pressure moves down from Canada. However, some low clouds may continue to linger across eastern North Dakota. Surface high pressure will lead to cooler low temperatures tonight out west dropping down into the lower 40s.

Surface high pressure will move off to the east Thursday allowing a shortwave to move through the southwest by the late evening hours. This system will move through much of central North Dakota Friday morning. Another round of convection is forecast to go off the higher terrain of the High Plains Friday afternoon moving into the west Friday evening. There are some low chances for strong to severe storms in the southwest. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 60s and 70s warming into the 80s by the weekend.

A strong upper level low is forecast to dig across the Mountain West this weekend. This will bring forth a strong wave across the Northern Plains. A return of Gulf moisture and breezy low level jet will increase the instability across the region. Machine learning programs like CSU and NSSL are highlighting Saturday for a decent shot of severe weather. The synoptic set up supports severe weather Saturday at this time. The NBM continues to carry high PoPs through the weekend, but the qpf continues to trend down as NBM and long range models have trouble resolving convective precipitation far out. However, there is still a good shot of moisture across the state this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all sites excluding KJMS. KJMS low clouds will increase in height through the day eventually leading to VFR conditions before low clouds return later tonight. There could be some showers across northern and eastern North Dakota with the probability being to low to include in the TAFs. Winds will remain gusty out of the north to northwest through the afternoon with gusts diminishing by sunset. Winds are forecast to be light and variable tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.