textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms are possible across northern North Dakota this evening. Main concerns are brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes.

- Critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon and evening over far southwest North Dakota.

- Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Labor Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Current surface analysis places low stretching from central into northeastern South Dakota, with high over eastern Montana. Upper level analysis places low off the Pacific Northwest coast, with ridge through the Upper Midwest. Over our area, main area of severe storms has now pushed into Minnesota, while some additional showers and storms continue to develop over north central North Dakota.

For the rest of this afternoon, showers and some storms will continue to develop and push through northern and eastern portions of our area, mainly over north central North Dakota. With that said, believe the severe risk has backed off for us given the widespread morning convection we had which really "washed out" the atmosphere, which has yet to recover to make severe a great possibility. By this evening, precipitation should be to the east of our area with a quiet night on tap.

Friday will bring notably warmer temperatures to many locations, especially to the south and west, with quiet weather expected. With that said, south to southeasterly winds will be on the increase as a surface low deepens over southeast Montana into parts of northeast Wyoming. Notably drier air is expected over our far southwest resulting in low humidity values. This will combine with the aforementioned winds and dry fuels to bring critical fire weather conditions to Slope and Bowman Counties, and near critical conditions to many other parts of southwest/west central North Dakota. A weak wave moving through the area Saturday night may result in a few showers/storms overnight.

On Saturday, warm airmass remains well situated over the area with upper ridge centered just to our east and upper low situated over the Pacific Northwest. Short waves pushing up the flow ahead of the low start pushing into the area starting precipitation chances.

On Sunday, surface low shifts to our south/southwest with moist east to southeasterly flow increasing moisture over our area. A variety of waves eject around the upper low bringing increasing chances for precipitation, particularly towards evening when guidance is showing widespread rain over much of the area. This continues into Monday as the low starts ejecting to the northeast. Pattern then remains a bit unsettled as we approach mid-week with near daily low precipitation chances and temperatures that are closer to average.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MVFR cigs remain persistent across portions of central North Dakota this evening, and these lower ceilings will spread across much of western and central portions of the state tonight into Friday morning. Some locations across northern North Dakota could experience brief IFR conditions during the morning hours. By 16Z Friday morning, VFR conditions should resume across the area.

Winds were generally light and variable this evening in the wake of showers and storms earlier today. Surface winds will become more uniform out of the southeast by early Friday morning and will significantly increase after sunrise. Sustained winds will generally be between 15-25 knots with gusts around 25-35 knots at times.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NDZ040-043.