textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog across western and central North Dakota this morning, with dense fog southwest and south central.

- Low to medium chances for light freezing rain over much of North Dakota this morning and afternoon, with the highest chances across the north.

- Temperatures will warm to above normal through the middle of the week, with a continued large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder) to southwest (warmer).

- Mainly dry weather conditions across western and central North Dakota for this coming work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Light radar returns showing up across eastern MT, as a mid level embedded wave approaches from the west. Latest CAMs are showing this activity, dissipating as it moves into southwestern areas of ND but maintained farther north. Trimmed off some counties from the fog headlines (Golden Valley east through Stark) with visibility improved there. Fog headlines remain valid elsewhere.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Currently, quasi-zonal flow aloft with broad upper level ridging centered over the central CONUS. South-southeast low/mid level flow across the Northern Plains this morning, with developing low pressure across the Northern High Plains in response to an embedded S/WV moving into the Lee of the Northern Rockies. Extensive area of low stratus and fog remains over the region, with areas of dense fog via sfc observations and ND DOT web cams over southwest and parts of south central North Dakota (Dense Fog Advisory in effect till 18Z (noon CST). Stratus deck is expected to erode southwest to northeast across much of western and portions of central ND after 14Z today as winds turn more westerly.

Flow aloft is allowing milder air to spread east across the Dakotas, with a sfc warm front moving into western ND this morning, then across central ND through this evening. Temperatures will warm along and behind the warm FROPA, with lower 50s for highs today southwest. Colder ahead of the front, with highs in the low 30s central and 20s east. The aforementioned embedded S/WV will move across the Dakotas this morning and afternoon, and will bring a chance for light precipitation to most areas. Dry layer between the stratus deck and mid level clouds will limit the amount of moisture reaching the surface, though with the convective nature expected with the shower chances, especially north where CAMs and HREF probs favor light sfc accumulations, there is a decent chance for light freezing rain considering WAA aloft and sfc temperatures at or below freezing. Opted to issue a Winter Weather advisory where the best potential for freezing rain impacts will be, along and north of Highway 2 to the Canadian border.

A quasi-zonal flow is still favored through the middle of this coming week, with temperatures averaging above normal and only minimal chances for any precipitation. NBM is mainly dry, though any disturbance moving through aloft could generate light precipitation, which right now looks to be on Tuesday. As we move into the later portions of next week, ensembles are favoring a split flow pattern developing, followed by upper level ridging across the western CONUS. This may bring some light precipitation chances later in the week, along with temperatures trending briefly cooler.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through this morning. Will see the stratus trending SCT-FEW over southwest North Dakota after 15Z, including KDIK. The trend of a southwest to northeast erosion of the stratus deck then continues into this afternoon, with conditions trending to VFR for KXWA and KBIS. KMOT and especially KJMS remain favored to remain under the lower ceilings through much of the 12Z period. Areas of freezing fog/mist will also continue this morning with the low stratus, with primarily IFR to LIFR visibility at the main terminals. An area of light freezing rain is forecast over northern areas of North Dakota this morning and afternoon, including for KXWA and KMOT.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013. Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NDZ034- 040>047-050.