textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak system will bring light rain to parts of the state today. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected through the week.

- Seasonable to mild temperatures are expected through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1151 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

S/WV mid level trough will continue east-southeast across the Dakotas today, resulting in an area of scattered light rain showers this afternoon which will then exit off to the east this evening. A few hundreths of accumulation possible with these showers. In the wake of this wave, clouds will diminish west into parts of central North Dakota, but look to linger east where a backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast tonight. Ahead of this boundary, fog development is being advertised by models after 05Z along the Missouri Coteau, and earlier introduced this into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 1017 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Expanded POPs and went with coverage for today and this evening. Also introduced fog to the forecast for tonight and Wed morning ahead of a backdoor cold front approaching from the northeast.

UPDATE Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Cloud cover is starting to expand across western and central North Dakota, with more mid clouds north and high clouds south. However, any precipitation entering western North Dakota still appears a few hours off yet. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Through the day today, a west CONUS ridge will be in the process of amplifying. As this occurs, weak shortwave energy will slide across the Northern Plains. Simultaneously, surface low pressure along the lee of the Rockies from Alberta through eastern Montana and into western South Dakota will gradually organize over South Dakota. While there isn't a ton of moisture to work with, hi-res models and model forecast soundings do imply that light rain will track from west to east across the state today, with all but the far southwest seeing low to medium chances for light rain. In regard to model forecast soundings, they are in agreement that there is a fair amount of dry air to overcome near the surface. However, it seems most of them saturate enough to where light rain should be observed wherever returns are able to organize for an extended period. The highest confidence is in the north central and especially in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains where saturation will be easier and there is around a 30 to 40 percent chance of a wetting rain (wetting rains are unlikely elsewhere).

Beyond today, the dry pattern looks to continue. The aforementioned ridge will significantly amplify over the High Plains resulting in flow that's north northwesterly over the state. This will result in the common pattern where part of the state remains on the warmer side of the ridge, and part of it on the cooler side. As such, Wednesday through the remainder of the week are favored to see seasonable (and on the cool side at times) temperatures east to above average temperatures west. The latest trends have continued to push the cooler side slightly further west during the end of the workweek. Bottom line is that high temperatures will range from the 30s and low 40s east to the 50s west. By this weekend, the ridge will begin sliding east over the Northern Plains as it deamplifies. This deamplification will still allow for above average temperatures across the entire state to start next week, though should also limit their ceiling thus preventing anything extremely unusual for this time of year.

Of note, towards the end of the forecast period and beyond, there are hints of a pattern change. Although disagreement in detailed evolution remains, models are fairly consistent in some form of west CONUS trough developing early to mid next week. Should this occur, more seasonable temperatures could return even across western parts of the state later next week, as well as potential precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A weather disturbance will bring lowering ceilings and scattered light rain showers from west to east today. The highest probability of precipitation remains in north central North Dakota, and will maintain a PROB30 group for KMOT. Behind this system, models are favoring fog development later tonight after 04-05Z along the Missouri Coteau (northwest through central North Dakota), lasting through Wednesday morning. Left out of the terminal forecasts at this time with uncertainty still rather high.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.