textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild with above average temperatures this weekend.

- Below average temperatures starting Tuesday through the end of November.

- Strong northwest winds are forecast Monday night through Wednesday, with the strongest winds on Tuesday.

- Low to medium chances for accumulating snow Monday night through Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

No forecast changes are needed for this update. Current conditions and trends have been blended in. A mid level shortwave ejecting off the southern Canadian Rockies this evening could bring some gusty winds across the state late tonight through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Currently northwest flow is present over the Northern Plains while an upper low sits over the Central Plains. Another low system sits in Southern California. As this slight ridging pattern continues through the weekend, so will the mild above average temperatures. It won't be until Monday when the weather starts to shift.

Starting Sunday, a shortwave trough will develop near Vancouver Canada. By Monday afternoon the state will be in diffluent southwest flow. At the surface a cold front will enter the state, extending off a low in Alberta. However, there is location uncertainty as the models and ensembles have slightly different paths for the shortwave and low. Some have it coming right through the Northern Plains, others keep the majority of the system in southern Canada. Regardless, the last 48 hours of the NBM the probabilities for precipitation has increased to a higher end medium chance (45-50%). This whole system will last through Wednesday morning. On the backside of the low, with the cold frontal passage, strong northwest winds are seemingly likely. The EFI forecast has increasing values over the last 24 hours. The EFI is now showing 0.66 values which is getting ever so closer to our 0.80 for Advisory level winds.

For snow amounts through the system the NBM probabilities are:

1 inch: Along and north of the Interstate there is a 50 to 70 percent chance, south of that is 20 percent.

2 inches: Along and north of HWY 200 there is a 40 to 60 percent chance. South of that is around a 20 to 40 percent.

There is low confidence in location of all this too with all the different model outcomes. The GEFS models have the system more south with higher QPF, compared to the NAM and Euro ensembles. Those have the low staying further north into Canada. The GEFS seem like the outlier currently as even the NBM probabilities are further north in northern ND and southern Canada. We have to wait until we get much closer and the models line up better to understand what might actually happen. Beyond this system, we will remain below average temperatures with highs in the teens and 20s. Lows will in the single digits, with a low chance of negative lows.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will turn to the west-northwest around 10 kts tonight through Saturday, and may become gusty at times.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.