textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds will slowly weaken through this afternoon and evening, although they will stay breezy overnight. - Snow will end through this evening and tonight. The strong winds combined with periods of falling snow will bring significantly reduced visibility at times.

- Very cold wind chills as low as 35 degrees below zero are expected tonight across northern and central North Dakota.

- Another round of light snow and strong winds is possible Saturday night through Sunday. This could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

This afternoon, a deep trough was digging into the Central Plains and Midwest region, with a closed low analyzed over Wisconsin and an embedded shortwave moving north to south over North Dakota. Surface low was placed well to our east, with a tight surface pressure gradient and low-level cold air advection driving very strong winds today. Across western North Dakota we are still seeing gusts topping out around 60 mph, while across central and eastern North Dakota wind gusts are generally around 45 to 50 mph. These winds, combined with light falling snow and the inch or two that has fallen throughout the event, has produced widespread blowing snow and significantly reduced visibilities.

Conditions are expected to slowly improve through the afternoon and evening as what little light snow remains tapers off, and as the winds gradually relax. We are already seeing improvement in western North Dakota as the low stratus deck shifts east, with sunny skies and rapidly increasing visibility in the Williston area. As far as headlines go, the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are scheduled to expire at 00 UTC, while the Winter Weather Advisory was extended until 06 UTC to account for any remaining areas of blowing snow through the evening, especially after sunset. Not the highest confidence in when exactly winds will drop off but will have to wait and see how winds are trending to decide if the warning needs to be extended a few hours or not.

Although winds will drop below headline criteria tonight, they are still expected to be breezy from a sustained surface pressure gradient. This, combined with Arctic air filtering in behind today's front, will lead to wind chill values as low as 35 degrees below zero for areas north and east of the Missouri River. Air temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for this hazard, valid this evening through Saturday morning.

Saturday will be relatively benign compared to the current weather as surface high pressure traverses the area, although winds will stay breezy, especially central and east. Highs will range from the single digits east to the 20s west. The break in precipitation is short-lived as guidance is confident on a clipper system moving through Saturday night into Sunday, bringing low to medium chances for light snow, another push of colder air, and strong winds. The primary forecast concern with this event is the potential for blowing snow and subsequent reduced visibilities, which could lead to hazardous travel across the area. The 12Z HREF coverage of blowing snow from light falling snow only goes until Sunday morning but is advertising medium chances for blowing snow impacts of visibilities down to half a mile. This product performed pretty well for today's event, and although winds will be lighter on Sunday, having an existing (albeit very light) snowpack could enhance potential blowing snow impacts Saturday night through Sunday.

The ECMWF EFI has central and eastern North Dakota highlighted in the 0.8 to 0.9 range for wind gusts on Sunday, as well as a shift of tails, which local research shows corresponds well with advisory-level wind gusts. With deterministic guidance advertising strong pressure rises, cold air advection, and modestly steep lapse rates, expect strong northwest winds that will increase quickly early Sunday morning and continue through the day. The latest NBM is advertising a high likelihood of 24-hour maximum wind gusts exceeding 45 mph across the entire forecast area. High temperatures on Sunday will likely occur early in the day as the clipper lets in colder air, with temperatures Sunday night falling as low as 10 degrees below zero. We could have additional wind chill concerns for this period, with apparent temperatures approaching 30 degrees below zero.

Monday will bring a chilly start to the week after the aforementioned clipper, with highs in the single digits north and east to the teens southwest. Ensemble cluster analysis is in fairly good agreement on broadly cyclonic flow dominating the synoptic pattern through the remainder of next week, with a brief warmup on Tuesday followed by a cooling trend through Friday. Blended guidance produced on and off low chances for snow as multiple shortwaves could move through the mean northwest flow, bringing breezy to windy conditions as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions to start the TAF period, with light snow and blowing snow across the area. Some pockets of LIFR vsbys across western North Dakota where northwest winds are strongest and are gusting to 55 knots this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds are generally gusting anywhere from 40 to 50 knots, and decrease to the east. As the weather system slowly exists the area through the TAF period, conditions will gradually improve from west to east, although winds are expected to stay elevated through the TAF period. There is potential for some ceiling improvement late in the period but overall not a lot of confidence in the dissipation of the current stratus deck and when terminals might return to VFR conditions.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-032>037-041-042-045>048-050- 051. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday for NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048- 050-051. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ003>005-012- 013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.