textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot conditions will continue across southern North Dakota through Thursday, with afternoon heat index values as high as 100, high temperatures around 95 to 100, and low temperatures only around 65 to 70.

- Temperatures are favored to remain above normal for most areas through the weekend, with cooler conditions arriving early next week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across far northern North Dakota early this morning, with heavy rain being the main expected hazard.

UPDATE

Issued at 830 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Overall forecast remains on track with no major updates needed at this time. Some light rain is trying to enter into northwestern ND, while some lingers in far northern ND. Overall this is on track with the ongoing forecast. Otherwise look for hot temperatures to continue today with much of the area remaining in a Heat Advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The area of most persistent showers and thunderstorms has shifted north into Canada as anticipated. Some lighter convection could linger north of Highway 2 until closer to late morning. Overall, the forecast for today remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 432 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Strong upper ridging prevails over the central CONUS this morning. An elevated warm front lies along the Saskatchewan border and curves back into northeast North Dakota over the Turtle Mountains area. Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage along the warm front through the night. While much of the strongest convection has remained just north of the border, an elevated supercell actually managed to sustain itself over eastern Bottineau County for an hour or two, but has since dissipated. SPC mesoanalysis still shows the broad area of convection to be located along the northern periphery of a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE with effective bulk shear around 40 kts. But the odds of another updraft realizing the maximum available CAPE and shear are decreasing. Both CAPE and forcing are forecast to wane through mid morning, and CAMs are in agreement that convection should lift northward into Canada by mid morning.

The upper ridge will more or less remain in place through Thursday, followed by a very slight westward shift over the High Plains on Friday. Confidence remains high in maximum temperatures and heat indices around 95 to 100 across the southern half of the state today and Thursday, with lows tonight once again only around 70. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening for all counties south of the Highway 2 corridor, where the daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature risk is forecast to remain in the High to Extreme categories. Another shortwave could round the top of the ridge this evening into Thursday morning and bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to far northern parts of the state over this time frame, but the risk for stronger thunderstorms is much lower tonight on account of weaker CAPE and poor mid level lapse rates. This is supported by CAMs showing more of just a showery outcome in their reflectivity fields, and even this may be overdone with model soundings showing high cloud bases and a deep layer of dry air underneath.

NBM temperature projections for this weekend have slightly increased from previous solutions, now showing mid and upper 80s far north to mid and upper 90s south for highs both Saturday and Sunday. Ensembles now favor the ridge tilting back through the Northern Plains by Sunday ahead of a shortwave digging into southern Canada. A surface trough/cold front attendant to the Canadian shortwave may provide the only appreciable widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms during the medium to longer range forecast period, with NBM PoPs having now increased to around 30 to 50 percent across all of western and central North Dakota Saturday night. All ensemble clusters show the Canadian shortwave continuing to dig southeastward through Monday and shunt the upper ridge back farther west, although there are variations of placement and amplitude of the shortwave among each cluster's mean fields. Regardless of these details, there is strong ensemble support for a stagnant upper ridge over the Rockies next week, placing the Northern Plains under a cooler and possibly active northwest flow pattern that could see temperatures return closer to or perhaps even slightly below average.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms could persist along the Canadian border this morning, but are unlikely to return to KXWA or approach KMOT. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could return to northern parts of the state tonight, but confidence in this is low. Easterly winds will increase to around 15-25 kts across northwest North Dakota this afternoon, with southeasterly winds around 10-20 kts across southern North Dakota. Wind speeds should gradually diminish after sunset.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051- 057>062.