textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold wind chills as low as 35 below will continue through this morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect until noon CT.

- Another round of light snow and strong winds tonight through Sunday. This could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

- Wind Advisory in effect tonight through Sunday afternoon for winds gusting up to 55 MPH.

- Below average temperatures continue through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

No major changes to the forecast with this product update.

Gusty winds continue, and when combined with subzero temperatures, very cold wind chills result, as low as around 35 below zero. Cold weather headlines run till noon CST, and will allow to continue and reevaluate closer to expiration time whether some areas need to be continued or not.

Increased chances for light snow mid to late afternoon after 21Z northwest into central, with models in good agreement with a band of light precipitation developing south-southeast into the region ahead of an embedded wave pushing south across south central Canada.

UPDATE Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Patchy blowing snow is still on going across central parts of the state as breezy winds continue. Wind chills remain 20 to 35 below as well. Winds should begin to calm across western and central ND as the surface high gets closer.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Currently the low pressure system that produced the strong winds and snow is sitting over Iowa with strong northernly flow over North Dakota. At the surface the low pressure system is in the Great Lakes. This strong flow aloft is air getting squeezed between an area of higher heights on the West Coast and that lower heights area in the Midwest. At the surface a high pressure in southern Canada is influencing the Northern Plains with clear skies and very cold wind chills. We have the Cold Weather Advisory in effect for all but the four southwest counties until Noon CT.

This weekend the colder temperatures and breezy winds will continue. This afternoon with warming westerly winds from Montana, the west part of the state should warm into the 30s, while the rest will only warm to the teens and 20s. Those west winds will be gusting to 25mph in the west and 20mph in the east. Tonight the next clipper system moves in, producing more light snow and strong winds. Most of the snowfall will be in the Devil's Lake Basin and Red River Valley. With a tightening pressure gradient, a cold front, and cold air advection more strong winds will occur. We are forecasting northwest winds gusting up to 55mph across most of western and central North Dakota. A Wind Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through Sunday afternoon. Models are not showing the potential for any widespread stronger winds but a few gusts over 55mph are possible in the snow in the northeast. The EFI is also showing only advisory level winds with a value of 0.80. A trace to one inch of snow can be expected along and east of Highway 85. The Turtle Mountains could see one to three inches with the upslope winds. Low temperatures in the negatives will continue through the entire forecast period with non-stop flow of very cold air aloft.

The rest of the week will remain below average with very strong northwest flow out of Canada. A shortwave in the northwest flow could bring another round of light snow to the state and breezy winds across the west. Snow amounts for this look very minimal. Late next week models are hinting at an even stronger push of Arctic air. Low temperatures could be in the negative 20s, with highs staying below zero. The NBM has a large temperature spread in this time period but at the high end will be just barely be above zero for highs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR to MVFR this morning as low CIGs and BLSN are still lingering. Winds will calm this afternoon and gust only near 10kts from the west with VFR CIGs. Then tonight winds increase from the northwest to 45kts. There is also a chance for snow across central and eastern terminals, covered with a PROB30 group for now. At the end of the forecast period BLSN is then possible again.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051. Wind Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 031>037-040>048-050-051.