textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow is expected along and north of Interstate 94 Tuesday night through Wednesday, with a low chance south of I94.

- Medium chances for at least 6 inches of snow along and north of Highway 2, where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect.

- Precipitation could begin as light rain or freezing rain Tuesday morning, likely transitioning to rain for all areas Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

- Strong east-southeast winds Tuesday turning to the northwest Wednesday could produce areas of blowing snow.

- Well above average temperatures through Tuesday, then a rapid switch to below average for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Light radar echoes have entered western North dakota. To this point, there has been limited ground truth of precipitation reaching the ground. However, relatively recent upstream observations show light precipitation reaching the surface in the form of light snow in Glasgow and light rain in Miles City, with our partner office in Glasgow reporting they received a dusting from a snow shower. Therefore, added low PoPs to parts of the forecast area until mid-morning. The one other note for this morning is fog. Currently, it has expanded a bit though remains mostly confined to the far north central. Incoming low to mid clouds will likely help fog dissipate, though for now, left fog mentions over the rest of central ND, including the James River Valley. But may trim back areal coverage before the aviation update in a couple hours.

Otherwise for today, expect another well above average day with highs ranging from the low 30s in far northeastern ND to the mid 50s in the southwest. While highs have generally overperformed in the last few days, incoming cloud cover could help at least delay warming temperatures to where they wind up as expected. Lows tonight are then expected to be in the low 20s to low 30s. Tuesday highs remain a bit of a mystery so will cover that in the next few paragraphs about the potential winter storm, but afterwards, temperatures fall off a cliff to finish out the workweek with highs by Thursday in the single digits above zero to low 20s.

In regard to the potential winter storm, there remains a large disparity in regard to temperatures for Tuesday. The NBM maintains highs in the 30s near the Canadian border to upper 40s and low 50s near the ND/SD border. This produces a forecast that is mostly rain Tuesday with rain changing to snow from north to south overnight. The problem is, deterministic guidance provides a wide range of outcomes that put both highs and precipitation types in doubt.

The EC, for example, produces highs similar to the NBM, while the HRRR is even warmer. However, the NAM is clearly much colder withs highs mostly around freezing, except in the far southwest where things remain warmer. It is entirely possible that the NBM is overdone and biased towards recent temperatures that have frequently overperformed, especially being cloudy conditions are forecast all day. That said, there is also no strong evidence to go against it at this time. Depending on which model solution winds up being the most accurate will highly impact winter weather impacts.

Should the warmer solutions play out, then rain will persist longer into the night Tuesday. Since later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night are progged to have the most precipitation in general, this would result in snow underperforming overall. However, if a solution closer to the NAM plays out, then not only is freezing rain introduced into the equation Thursday (which is supported to some degree by the latest HREF run), but precipitation will change to all snow sooner. This would result in a higher overall snow forecast and one that may cause impacts further south.

Further complicating this forecast are winds. Strong easterly winds are expected Tuesday, especially for areas north and east of the Missouri River. After which, winds are expected to switch to the northwest overnight Wednesday and through the day. The strongest CAA is currently progged to pass through far southwestern ND and near or south of the ND/SD border. Depending on exactly where this occurs and if it coincides with a stronger pressure bubble, winds may overperform the current forecast in southern parts of the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. Bottom line to winds is that their impact is highly dependent upon how much snow falls where and when. As of right now, the strongest winds do not coincide with areas where higher amounts of snow are forecast. However, still expect patchy blowing snow with a potential sweet spot where more widespread areas of blowing snow could occur.

The current forecast produces less than 2 inches of snow along and south of I94, 2 to 5 inches north of I94 and along and south of Highway 2, and 5 to 8 inches north of Highway 2. That said, as previously mentioned, these totals can vary quite a bit depending on how the temperature profile plays out when all is said and done. Will maintain the Winter Storm Watch as-is for now, which includes the northern two tiers of counties in western and central North Dakota.

Beyond this system, there is the potential for additional light snow late Wednesday night through Thursday. Winds may remain breezy in the south central Thursday, which could result in patchy blowing snow in the event snow actually falls in that area. Other than that, expect no major impacts from that particular wave. Besides the potential for another weak wave during the weekend, mostly dry conditions and another warming trend are then favored into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility along with light and often variable winds (becoming southeasterly Monday) are expected through the period. The main exception is that fog has developed along the southern slope of the Turtle Mountains and additional fog may develop over parts of central and eastern North Dakota through the night. As of now, most terminals are not expected to be impacted. However, a few hi-res models ping the periphery of the fog reaching KJMS, therefore added VCFG for a few hours to highlight this possibility. There is also a low probability that light mixed precipitation could pass from west to east through western and central ND overnight and into Monday morning. However, a dry layer should prevent any aviation impacts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for NDZ001>005-009>013.