textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers at times through Thursday, but mainly dry for most locations through the rest of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through Thursday, then a warming trend develops Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Scattered weak radar returns can be found over portions of western North Dakota at the time of this mid night update. While we cannot rule out a few errant sprinkles making it to the surface, high cloud bases and dry near surface conditions, with dewpoint depressions around 10 to 15 degrees, is expected to inhibit any real precpitation tonight. Overall, the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 947 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The forecast remains on track. Just a few stray sprinkles winding down across western North Dakota late this evening. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

No major forecast changes are needed for this update. A few isolated showers remain possible in southwest North Dakota this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Broad upper level trough will continue to push across the state tonight. Variable levels of clouds will be found as a result, especially in western areas were low level lapse rates are steep. There could be a few isolated showers through this afternoon given the steep lower level laps rates, especially in the southwest. Variable clouds and winds are then expected through tonight with lows near 30 degrees. Some areas in the southwest may see patchy fog develop tonight, although dry conditions are expected to limit development of fog. Northwest flow with a secondary and weak trough could then be found for Wednesday. Temperatures could improve slightly, yet still remain below normal in the 50s. Modest to steep lapse rates could again lead to a few showers Wednesday afternoon, especially in the south. Some weak instability could also lead to a few isolated thunderstorms. A steady north wind is also expected for Wednesday. RH values could lower to near 30 percent in the afternoon, although winds should be below critical fire weather criteria. Partly cloudy skies with lows near 30 degrees will again be found for Wednesday night. Similar conditions are then expected for Thursday, although chances for showers look to be lower. Winds become light Thursday night, with lows again near 30 degrees.

A ridge of high pressure then looks to encroach on the area Friday, getting washed out in northwest flow through the weekend. This ridge will bring warming temperatures Friday through the weekend with highs warming into the 60s, and lows in the 30s and generally above freezing. Mainly dry conditions also looks to be found through the weekend, with only slight chances for a few showers Sunday. There could be some increased fire weather concerns through the weekend as the dry and warming trend brings RH values in the 20s each day. Some increased northerly winds may also be found Saturday and Sunday, although winds may be short of critical fire weather criteria. Still something to monitor especially for those with outdoor burning plans. Beyond this weekend into next clusters indicate a return to northwest flow with warm conditions likely continuing, although there still remains a subset of clusters that bring cooler temperatures with the ridge not advancing as far inland. This is indicated by the large spreads in NBM temperatures. Perhaps a few showers are possible in this northwest flow pattern, with limited pops at this time. Lastly, breezy northwest winds could be found and if temperatures remain above normal, this could lead to some increased fire weather concerns to start next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. A few showers and isolated is possible in the far southwest and south central later this morning and afternoon, but is not currently expected at any given TAF site. Light and variable winds this morning will organize out of the north later this morning and afternoon, becoming somewhat breezy with sustained speeds from 10 to 15 MPH with a few gusts up to 20 MPH. Winds are then expected to diminish and become light through the evening and the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.