textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible across the west late tonight through Sunday morning.

- A warming trend to well above average temperatures is favored through early next week. Temperatures are then favored to cool back closer to normal by the end of the week.

- Dry through early next week, with low to medium chances for precipitation returning mid to late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The forecast remains in good shape. Current conditions and trends have been blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1011 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Little updates needed at this time. Cloud cover is not as abundant as previous forecast thus adjusted sky cover slightly for the next few hours. There still could be some lower clouds and patchy fog later tonight into Sunday morning. Other than some sky cover adjustments the forecast overall remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 547 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Limited updates needed at this time. Some lower clouds are trying to reform in the west as another plume of lower level moisture advects in from the southeast flow. This could bring another night of lower level clouds and fog to the west. For now made some minor sky adjustments based on these increasing cloud trends. Currently fog has not yet been reported, although will continue to monitor for any development tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

With an omega blocking pattern over the central CONUS, mild and dry weather continues across western and central North Dakota. Breezy south to southeasterly winds, sustained around 15 to 20 MPH and gusting up to 35 MPH, have developed across much of the area due to the tightening of the surface pressure gradient between a surface high over northern Minnesota and a low center spit out into Montana by lee cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies. Partly cloudy skies will persist across the area as low to mid level moistures continues to stream northward across the Great Plains. Highs this afternoon are forecast from the lower 40s east to the mid 50s west. With winds becoming very light across western North Dakota this evening and overnight, patchy fog is possible along the ND/MT border late tonight through Sunday morning.

Late tonight into Sunday, a Pacific Trough is progged to be rapidly subsumed into the general northwesterly flow over the southern Canadian Prairies, ejecting a shortwave impulse that will held erode and eject the ridging portions of the omega block further to the east. The resulting southwesterly flow over the northern Plains Sunday through the early portions of the next week will continue to promote mild and dry weather across the area, with highs broadly in the 50s and lows in the 30s each day. With broad high pressure underneath the ridge situated over the eastern CONUS, and with ongoing lee cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies, a mild MSLP gradient will persist over eastern North Dakota, promoting somewhat breezy conditions over the south central Sunday and Monday, with sustained speeds around 10 to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH coming out of the south. Otherwise, quiet weather is anticipated through this period.

Looking further head, a pattern shift is anticipated through the later half of the week as the influence of a deep Pacific Northwestern low increases across the northern Plains. On Wednesday, the ensemble advertises the arrival of an initial shortwave that the ensemble expects to spin up and loft a surface low pressure system across the northern Plains through Thursday morning. With this, low to medium chances (40 to 70 percent) for precpitation can be anticipated across much of the forecast area. Cluster analysis indicates two potential tracks with this initial system. The faster, more northerly track is slightly favored (60 percent of ensemble members), which captures the low pressure system cutting slightly more directly across North Dakota into the southern Canadian Prairies. The shorter residence time over the forecast area would generally limit overall QPF Wednesday into Thursday, with most locations limited to around 0.1" or so. A slightly slower, more southerly track (40 percent of members) would maximize the residence time of precpitation over North Dakota Wednesday into Thursday, and would allow QPF to approach 0.25". While cooler air would also accompany this system, driving highs down into the 40s, rain is favored at this time. Some light snow may mix in with the rain across the north during the coolest hours of Thursday morning, though no accumulations are currently anticipated.

Conditions are expected to briefly dry out late Thursday into early Friday behind this initial system, though chances for precpitation will again increase across the area through the day Friday as the main Pacific wave crosses over the Rockies and slides across the northern Plains. Similar to Wednesday, cluster analysis reveals two potential scenarios depending on the track of the low. A more northerly route (60 percent of ensemble members) would allow for more cool air to be ingested in the system as it passes through the forecast area, and thus a transition from mostly rain on Friday into mostly snow by early Saturday would be anticipated. Snowfall accumulations across the area of an inch or so could be anticipated, with a low chance for portions of the west into south central North Dakota to exceed 2 inches of snow by late Saturday into early Sunday. Highs in this scenario would mainly be in the 30s. The southerly route (40 percent of members) instead has much of this precpitation fall as rain, with some snow beginning to mix in by early Saturday morning. In this scenario, high temperatures in the upper 30s into the 40s would quickly erode whatever trace of snowfall does end up falling Saturday morning. These clusters remain very poorly dispersed at this timeframe, with scenario 1 being mainly a combination of the GEPS and the GEFs, while scenario 2 is mainly the ENS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions could be replaced by some MVFR to IFR conditions tonight into Sunday morning, especially in western areas. Some patchy fog could also be found in these areas. Confidence was not high enough to place fog in TAFs at this time, although KDIK to KXWA currently have low to medium chances for fog development tonight and some lower ceilings and mist have been introduced at this TAF update. Meanwhile, generally VFR conditions are expected for central and eastern portions. Mainly VFR conditions are then expected after after any lingering low clouds and fog dissipates Sunday morning. Breezy southerly winds will continue tonight, and across the central and east for Sunday. Western areas will see southerly winds become westerly during the day Sunday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.