textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday across most of northern and parts of southwestern North Dakota, with near critical fire weather conditions elsewhere.

- Near to above average temperatures through the weekend, then cooler early to mid next week.

- Low chances for showers Sunday night through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds across the forecast area. No updates planned.

UPDATE Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Winds have diminished over the past couple of hours, while some high clouds continue to pass through. No changes needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Gusty northwesterly winds continue, but will subside this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Going forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the period. This, along with a couple passing surface lows, will produce mostly dry and windy conditions through the remainder of the weekend. Above average high temperatures mostly in the mid 60s to low 70s are also on tap. For Sunday, westerly winds are generally expected to range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. However, locally stronger sustained winds and gusts are possible, especially in the northwest where the strongest winds are expected.

For next week, the mostly dry pattern continues. However, occasional embedded shortwaves could produce occasional showers. For example, the NBM maintains 20 to 30 percent chances for precipitation Sunday night through Monday. That said, even if isolated to scattered showers wind up occurring, nothing looks like a widespread heavy rain maker through at least the middle of next week. One of the aforementioned surface lows is progged to pass through southern Manitoba and Ontario Sunday night through Monday. This will produce windy conditions yet again on Monday with breezy conditions continuing Tuesday. After which, models are fairly consistent on lighter winds for the latter half of the workweek as influence from surface high pressure prevails.

For Monday through Wednesday, below average temperatures are forecast to prevail with highs mostly in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Lows are also expected to drop back into the 20s to low 30s. A warming trend to more seasonable temperatures is then favored to finish out the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will subside this evening. Winds have diminished and will shift southwest to west by Sunday morning then mainly west in the afternoon. Sustained winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to around 35kts north. Winds will shift northwest and in the north after 00 UTC.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Fire weather concerns persist over the next few days. For this afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions continue across the state as a northwest to southeast moving cold frontal boundary has brought gusty winds to much of the area. However, higher relative humidities with the frontal boundary have prevented the strongest winds from coinciding with the driest conditions.

Behind the cold frontal boundary, drier air is expected to filter in tonight through Sunday as the associated surface low kicks off to the east, and high pressure approaches southern Manitoba. In addition to drier air, windy conditions are expected on Sunday resulting in sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph in northern and eastern North Dakota along with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Locally stronger winds and gusts are possible, especially in the northwest. Since confidence has increased overall in the development of critical fire weather conditions, opted to upgrade the entire Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. There is slightly lower confidence in southwestern counties such as Golden Valley and Billings (weaker winds), as well as those in the north central near the Turtle Mountains (higher relative humidity). However, believe they will still experience periods of critical fire weather. Everywhere else not in the Red Flag Warning will see near-critical fire weather conditions on Sunday.

For Monday, windy conditions are expected again. However, much cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity values higher than this weekend. Therefore, believe near-critical fire weather conditions are possible yet again though confidence is lower overall. Tuesday through the remainder of the next workweek currently maintain weaker winds in the forecast, though frequently project low relative humidity values often ranging from 20 to 30 percent for much of the area.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019- 021>023-031-032.