textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this morning. A few stronger storms will be possible.

- Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through tonight. Expected hazards include hail 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging winds up to 75 mph, along with a few possible tornadoes.

- Additional isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Monday.

- Near to above normal temperatures are favored this weekend through the middle of next week, warming to well above normal heading into the Forth of July holiday weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Scattered elevated convection across the Northern Plains this morning. Adjusted POPs to better match latest radar and trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Currently, S/WV mid level ridge over the Dakotas being undercut by embedded impulses and leading to showers and a few thunderstorms this morning. Nocturnal low level jet (LLJ) and elevated instability leading to a few stronger cells the past few hours, and will continue to monitor. Deep upper level low developing into the Pacific Northwest coastal area, acting to amplify a western CONUS long wave trough and strengthening a lee side surface trough over the High Plains.

Southwest flow aloft increases today across the Northern Plains, along with strong southerly flow transporting warmer temperatures and low level moisture into the Dakotas. As a result, robust instability is expected today, especially along to east of the sfc trough/frontal boundary. Favorable wind shear for severe convection is also expected to spread across the region as a strong embedded wave and increasing divergence aloft spread into the Northern Plains later today and this evening. Initial/discrete convection is depicted via CAMs near the ND/MT border area along the boundary, with all severe weather threats possible. Steep lapse rates will contribute to very large hail potential, and have increased the potential size to up to 3 inches. A few tor spinup possible initially as well along the trough. A near parallel mean flow along the boundary will likely see storms congeal into a few linear segments as they continue east tonight, with severe wind becoming more of a threat. SPC has maintained the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas as is, but did increase the hail/wind/tor outlooks with the latest update.

A bit of uncertainty for Sunday, but still appears the south to north orientated sfc trough/frontal boundary becomes quasi- stationary/redevelops over the central Dakotas, leading to another round of strong to severe convection during the day along to east of this boundary, with more isolated activity west as waves lift north-northeast through the region. SPC has central and eastern areas of the state in the Slight Risk area for Day 2 for this, with little change from yesterday.

In addition to the active weather pattern discussed above, forecast temperatures today will warm considerably from yesterday, with low 90s possible southwest and well into the 80s other areas. Southeast winds will also increase today as the sfc trough deepens, especially south central and into the James Valley, with sustained winds to 35 mph and peak gusts approaching 45 mph. Opted to go with a Wind Advisory 15Z through the afternoon for the above mentioned areas.

Upper low lifts north-northeast through the region early next week, with the potential for either ongoing strong convection to start the day Monday or possible redevelopment with the upper low passage. Thereafter, we remain in an active southwest flow aloft pattern into the middle of next week, with near to slightly above normal temperatures and near-daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Upper ridge tries to build into the Northern Plains later in the week, resulting in warming temperatures with highs by the end of next week for the July 4th Holiday warming into the mid 80s to mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Low VFR to MVFR ceilings at most terminals begin the 12Z TAF period, and will persist through Saturday morning and into this afternoon most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this morning, and will handle with PROB30 groups and amend as needed. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with any shower or storm. Gusty southeast winds are expected across much of the forecast area today, strongest central and east. Another round of thunderstorms, some likely severe, expected this afternoon west and spreading east tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ022-023-025-035>037-042- 046>048-050-051-060>062.