textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy, humid, and cool today.

- Rain chances increase south and west of the Missouri River this afternoon, then medium to high rain chances remain tonight and through the day Sunday, before tapering Sunday night.

- Seasonable temperatures through early next week, with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Surface low remains analyzed over the Central Plains with surface high moving towards Ontario. This continues allowing for drier air to win out over most of the state, except parts of the southwest, resulting in little overall precipitation. Light rain over parts of the southwest should increase in coverage later this afternoon and especially overnight tonight. After which, rain chances should gradually diminish through Sunday night. A quarter to half inch of additional rain is likely over the far southwest, but probabilities rapidly drop off further north and east. Near the Missouri River, probabilities for even a tenth of an inch drop down to around 50 percent, and rapidly less further north and east of the river.

Despite the lack of precipitation across most of the state, low-level stratus will prevail overall tonight through Sunday. Though by late Sunday afternoon and through the night, skies should begin to clear from north to south. This thick sky cover will likely moderate temperatures with forecast lows remaining warmer than the NBM produces, and highs potentially cooler than forecast... more so for this afternoon than Sunday.

Dry conditions are then expected to prevail Monday through Tuesday before a shortwave potentially brings another round of showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms, through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Seasonable temperatures are expected to start the next workweek with highs initially in the 60s to low 70s. A gradual warming trend is then favored to bring highs into the 70s with some low 80s degree readings in western ND by the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings are present across the vast majority of western through central North Dakota, including the James River Valley. There will likely be some improvement further north and east, but lowering ceilings are likely across much of the area again tonight. VFR visibility is present across most of the south with MVFR/IFR visibility along with patchy drizzle across parts of the north. Northern visibility should also improve through the afternoon, though localized reductions are possible again tonight. Light rain is developing in southwestern and parts of south central North Dakota. Overall, most accumulating rain is expected to stay south and west of the Missouri River with lesser amounts north and east.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.