textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Westerly winds around 25 mph gusting to 45 mph expected today into early this evening.

- Near to below average temperatures today, with a gradual warming trend through the work week.

- Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with more widespread chances returning Thursday through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 945 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The going forecast continues to be in good shape. The west winds are starting to increase with gusts nearing 30 mph.

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

For early morning update only change was to increase cloud cover over the Turtle Mountains for a few hours. Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current surface analysis places deep low over southern Manitoba, with high over the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places low generally along the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A short wave sliding along the southern part of the low is resulting in a few light showers now moving from far northwest into far north central North Dakota.

For today, deep low becomes stacked and lingers over southern Manitoba, with low shower/thunderstorm chances remaining mainly over far northern portions of our area. The main impact for our area will be gusty winds developing with the expected pressure gradient over our area. Westerly winds will be on the increase today, becoming gusty mid-day through the afternoon when forecast soundings indicate adequate mixing of higher winds to the surface. At this time expect wind gusts to 45 mph possible, so have gone with a Wind Advisory through all of western and central North Dakota including the James River Valley. By early evening expect winds start diminishing as the stronger mixing comes to an end.

On Wednesday, low continues to loiter over southern Manitoba before starting to open and push off to the east. System will weaken through the day so do not expect the wind impacts we will see today, but with the cyclonic flow over our area can't rule out a few showers and maybe a few weak thunderstorms developing.

In the meantime, upper level high pressure will be well entrenched over the southeastern CONUS, with an extended period of southwest flow setting up over our area for Thursday into Friday. A variety of waves lift through the flow bringing likely showers and thunderstorms to our area Thursday into Friday, with machine learning guidance continuing to indicate a severe potential in this period. The chances for precipitation continue into Saturday, but severe guidance is more questionable in this period.

Temperatures look to gradually warm through the work week, with a possible brief minor dip on Saturday. Warming trend then looks to return to start the upcoming week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 945 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty westerly winds are expected through early this evening. Wind gusts to 40 kts will be possible during this period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037- 040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.