textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog forecast across western and central North Dakota tonight into Thursday morning, with areas of dense fog possible. - Below average high temperatures along the Canadian border Thursday and continued well above average near the South Dakota border. We continue to trend cooler into Friday, along with low chances for snow and possibly a little rain Thursday night through Friday morning.

- Another modest warmup and breezy conditions favored for this weekend, then a cooling trend with increasing chances for precipitation early to midweek next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 631 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Fog has developed over much of the James River Valley into parts of south central North Dakota, with some being dense per a few observations and area webcams. Therefore, have issued a dense fog advisory. The challenge for the remainder of the evening is we anticipate fog to spread through much of the area, but figuring the extent of the 1/4 mile or less visibility. Will continue to closely monitor trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Currently, zonal flow aloft with a S/WV ridge to our west and an undercutting low across the Central Plains. Cold front continues to dip slowly south across North Dakota this afternoon, with low clouds, fog, and a transition to north/northeast winds in its wake. Temperatures steady to dropping (teens and low 20s) across my north behind the cold FROPA, warming into the mid 60s southwest and far south central.

The low stratus is forecast to move through the forecast area by early this evening, with models in good agreement with fog developing over most areas tonight. Dense fog will again be possible, though difficult to place at this time, but latest guidance paints a large chunk of the western and central ND possibly needing elevating messaging for fog later on.

Frontal boundary stalls along the ND/SD border area for Thursday, and results in a large temperature spread Thu afternoon with highs in the low 20s north central to the lower 50s far south. Another factor in temperatures tomorrow will be the erosion or lack of the stratus deck. It is likely significant changes to forecast highs tomorrow will still occur.

Split flow develops Thursday into Friday, with embedded energy bringing low chances for light precipitation to the Northern Plains, rain or snow depending mainly on sfc temperatures. Cooler for Friday with highs in the 30s to around 40, along with gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold FROPA Thu night.

Northwest flow Saturday morphs into zonal flow for Sunday ahead of a strong S/WV moving into the Pacific Northwest and a long wave trough over Canada developing south. The weekend will be mild and mainly dry, but also breezy both days. Fire weather concerns become elevated Saturday in southwest ND, where and when near-critical fire weather conditions materialize thanks to low RH around 25 percent and winds gusting up to 35 mph. This was added into the HWO.

Thereafter, we trend colder and much more active for next week as the aforementioned upper trough dips farther south and multiple embedded waves move across the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

IFR/LIFR stratus with areas of fog will continue its expansion south through the through early this evening, impacting all terminals. This will continue through the overnight, with possible improvement late Thursday morning, mainly over western areas.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for NDZ022-023-025- 036-037-047-048-050-051.