textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday, mainly in the north and central.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend, with strong to severe storms possible.

- Temperatures remain at or slightly below normal through Friday, then will be closer to normal this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The forecast for tonight remains in decent shape. Will maintain chances for showers northeast early this morning, along with some increasing clouds with boundary layer moisture relatively high tonight. A few models produce fog west, and will monitor for this but for now opted to leave out of the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers continue to dissipate this evening over northern portions of the forecast area. There are some showers over southeast Saskatchewan that look like they will make it into the northwest before completely dissipating, so made some minor adjustments to pops through the rest of the evening. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. Updated test products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered showers continue mainly along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. There have been a few lightning strikes with this activity, but most activity has remained as showers. Expect activity to continue into early evening before diminishing slowly. Winds will also diminish from early to mid evening. No significant changes to the going forecast other than some slight tweaks to sky cover.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Currently a stacked low pressure system sits in the Canadian side of the Red River Valley, with an occluded front down through far eastern North Dakota. A surface high pressure centered in Montana has weak influence across North Dakota. Wrap around moisture along a surface trough on the backside of the low has popped scattered showers across the north in the diurnal cumulus field. This will continue through the evening, especially when that trough swings into the state. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with these, but no severe weather is expected. There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) in eastern ND for severe storms along that occluded front.

Wednesday afternoon looks similar with afternoon scattered showers as the cyclonic flow near the low continues. Through this week the below normal temperatures will continue in the zonal flow. Little waves from the northern Rockies will create on and off chances for showers through the week. This weekend a large low pressure will dip down into the Pacific Northwest, creating very active southwest flow in the Northern Plains Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as dewpoints could reach the low to mid 60s. Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening as the trough strengthens and becomes more diffluent over the state. In the evening a low level jet with warm and moist air could increase in strength leading to the threat continuing through the evening. As of now SPC has most of western and central North Dakota in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) in their day 5 outlook. All of this is subject to many changes as we are still 5 days out.

Sunday looks like another day where strong to severe storms are possible as the strong trough and warm air advection continues. Because of this, the high temperatures through the weekend will be much closer or above normal and continue into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Early this morning, MVFR clouds are expected to develop behind an exiting low pressure system. KMOT and KJMS are expected to see the longest period of MVFR ceilings this morning and into the early afternoon. The remaining TAF sites could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings this morning. West to northwest surface flow is expected to continue through much of the 06Z TAF period, becoming more variable Wed night.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.