textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low humidity values and gusty west to southwest winds shifting north with a cold front will combine with dry fuels to bring critical fire weather conditions to much of western North Dakota. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- Mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the week, then low to medium chances for rain late this weekend into early next week.

- Notably warmer temperatures today, then cooler but still seasonal temperatures are expected through the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 547 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Dry cold front will continue to push south through the forecast area this evening. Currently, the front was located from around Bottineau to Watford City. West to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph ahead of the front. Behind the front, north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. As the front pushes south through the evening, think the winds both ahead and behind the front will not be as strong. Thus fire weather impacts will not be as high as we go through the evening. Red Flag warning continues though over western ND through 8 PM MDT. Other than the front moving through, not much weather wise as the front is dry and cloud cover minimal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A cold front is forecast to move in across the southwest bringing some windy conditions out west this afternoon. In addition relative humidity is forecast to be around be around 10 to 20 percent out west with windy conditions this afternoon will lead to Red Flag conditions across the portions of western North Dakota. Read the fire weather discussion for more information. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to warm into the 90s across the state. The cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region tomorrow with highs forecast to be in the 70-80s. Another front will move through the region Friday afternoon bringing a wind shift.

Northwesterly flow will continue into weekend, however we will be on the equatorward side of the upper level flow. This will hinder any expected precipitation chances. Thus, dry conditions will continue through the weekend. Winds will remain light keeping critical fire weather conditions at bay. Although Sunday could be a bit breezy across the south central. Temperatures will remain in the in the 80s this weekend with the southwest touching the 90s by Sunday. The pattern may be a bit more active by the middle of next week as the flow shifts from Northwesterly to quasi zonal which could bring forth some low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will also cause the temperatures to drop down into the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 547 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. A cold front will move south through the forecast area tonight. Westerly surface winds will shift north behind the front and increase for a few hours, before diminishing and turning more west to northwest. Surface flow remains west to northwest through the day Friday. We will see an increase in smoke aloft and may see an increase in smoke near the surface. However too uncertain at this time to include in any TAF forecast.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.