textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.

- A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Quiet across western and central ND tonight. Convection over northeast Montana could sneak into the far west towards morning. Ongoing convection over southeast Montana into northwest South Dakota should remain just south of southwest North Dakota. No changes planned at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

No major adjustments to the forecast were necessary at the time of this mid evening update. Calm and dry weather persists across western and central North Dakota. Upstream of the forecast area, thunderstorms continue to develop along a pseudostationary cold front over southeastern Montana. CAMs continue to advertise these storms remaining out of our area until late tonight, when the front is expected picked up and pushed west by a surface low dropping out of southern Minnesota. By this time, they can be expected to be mainly be showers with some more isolated rumbles of thunder.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Earlier showers across portions of the northwest and north central have dissipated. Have tweaked sky grids this evening, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North Dakota today.

Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the evening. All of western and central North Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low pressure will move east across the International Border in the western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, isolated super cells are possible in western and central North Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level 2 risk. This moisture advection will create pockets of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE.

The current forecast for hazards are hail size is up to 2 inches and 60mph wind gusts. Convection will likely start discrete before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide through the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low confidence as the various CAMs have differences. The general consensus for a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western ND, and moving southeast, exiting our area by 10z.

Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level high will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create a ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise moving high to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. The current deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to show lower triple digits for western and parts of central ND Sunday and Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from Friday through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday and Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the 75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. Like every very warm day in the state, there will be a strong south wind, with gust up to 30mph through the weekend.

The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the 80s or low 90s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period. Light southerly winds expected tonight and into Thursday morning. Southerly flow then increases to 10 to 20 mph over central ND Thursday afternoon and turns westerly over western ND. Winds then become light after 00Z Friday across the forecast area.

Convection could push into western ND towards morning, but strong to severe storms are not anticipated with this activity. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across western and central ND. Any of these storms will contain gusty and erratic winds and hail, as well as the potential for MVFR ceiling and visibilities with any heavy downpours.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.