textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds with patchy fog and mist over portions of western and central North Dakota today and tonight, with a low chance of light freezing drizzle in north central parts of the state.

- Well above average temperatures through the weekend. Sunday will be the warmest day, with highs in the upper 30s northeast to around 60 southwest.

- 20 to 50 percent chance for light rain and snow early next week. Temperatures trend cooler next week, but remain above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 856 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Quiet weather continues across the region. No updates are needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 602 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

There were no major deviations from the inherited forecast with this product issuance, outside of blending hourly weather elements with current observations. See below for further discussion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Currently, broad upper level ridge to our west, anchored along the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains this morning. Surface high pressure to our east and a leeside sfc low to our west, results in a tight pressure gradient across the Dakotas early this morning, with breezy at times south- southeasterly winds. Areas of low level stratus across the region, along with patchy fog being reported at times, with a continued moist low level boundary layer. Hard to find any given model that perfectly represents the low cloud placement, though the latest RAP is fair.

WAA spreads from west to east today as a warm frontal zone advances east into the region. Low level clouds look to persist for most of the day central and east, with more clearing west where westerly flow develops in the wake of the front. Some wrap around stratus is depicted by the RAP to reenter parts of northwest ND after 18Z this afternoon. Sfc front/trough stalls over the central Dakotas this evening, slowly developing east overnight tonight. This leads to likely continued low clouds over my central and eastern counties tonight along with more fog, with decreasing clouds central overnight in the wake of the aforementioned trough.

Sunday continues to be the warmest day depicted this forecast period, with a zonal flow aloft coupled with the warm sector of a sfc low moving east across far south central Canada spreading over west and central North Dakota during the day Sunday. Coupled with a good westerly mixing flow and decreasing clouds (low clouds will be well to our east by 18Z Sun), afternoon highs are forecast to range from near 40F in the Turtle Mountains to around 60 in southwest North Dakota. Opted to increase temperatures closer to the 75/90 percentiles of the NBM considering our overperforming aft highs lately. A few record highs will be in jeopardy of being broken with forecast temperatures 30 degrees above normal.

Thereafter, upper level jet stream starts to sag farther south along with a trough developing over the western CONUS. This pattern change will suggest temperatures trending cooler next week (though remaining above normal), along with a more active pattern developing increasing precipitation chances early next week and potentially for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

MVFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail across central and eastern North Dakota this morning, with some improvement possible at both KBIS and KJMS if the low clouds momentarily scattered out/lift. Western terminals are expected to remain VFR through the 12Z period. Low clouds and fog then return tonight for central and eastern terminals, with improving conditions for both KBIS and KMOT late tonight after 06Z. Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kts through this morning, with winds then becoming west/northwest today into this evening as a frontal boundary moves from west to east across the state.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.