textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will expand across much of the state today with the heaviest snow expected along and south of Interstate 94. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in effect over southern North Dakota.

- Well below average temperatures through Monday, followed by a strong warming trend through the remainder of next week.

- Mixed precipitation possible Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Though it's been slightly slower than expected, snow is beginning to organize and expand in coverage over southwestern ND. Otherwise, various observations have reported dense fog in parts of northwestern and north central ND where skies cleared and low-level stratus was not present. However, limited webcam observations in the vicinity have shown little in the way of ground truth. Nevertheless, with at least four stations reporting 1/4 mile or less visibility, have opted to issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for Burke, Renville, Mountrail, and Ward counties until 9 am CDT this morning. Conditions should rapidly improve as influence from the encroaching winter storm in southern ND pushes further north.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 453 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A potent winter storm will impact the Northern Plains today through Sunday as low pressure, currently analyzed over Wyoming into northeastern Colorado, tracks across the Central Plains. The heaviest snow in North Dakota likely remains along and south of I94. Overall, intend on leaving headlines as-is this morning, which includes a Winter Storm Warning for all counties along and south of I94 if west of the Missouri River, and for all counties south of I94 if east of the Missouri River. A tier of Winter Weather Advisory counties remains on the north side of the Winter Storm Warning.

Currently, light snow associated with the incoming winter storm is mainly in far southwestern ND. This snow is expected to expand north and east across most of the state today, through this evening, before tapering off from northwest to southeast late tonight. Snow may linger through Sunday morning in the southeast, including the James River Valley. Overall, 6 to 9 inches are expected in the warned area and 3 to 6 inches in the advisory. That said, latest CAMs do indicate there may be a bit of a northward shift of the heaviest snow. If this turns out to be the case when things really begin to ramp up, it's possible headlines may need to be expanded a tier further north across parts of the forecast area.

One thing to note is that the latest guidance suggests the highest snow accumulations will be this afternoon and evening. However, it is also the middle of March and the sun is becoming increasingly powerful. Despite overcast skies, with increasing solar insolation this time of year and near-freezing high temperatures, light snow might have a harder time accumulating on manmade surfaces (especially treated ones) during the late morning and early afternoon hours for some areas. Once snowfall rates increase to a more moderate or heavy level this effect will be overcome. Nevertheless, this could result in noticeably higher accumulations on grassy surfaces than manmade ones for parts of the forecast area, especially those where snow doesn't begin until later morning or early afternoon. By late afternoon, as the sun angle begins to decrease, this will no longer be the case and all light accumulations will begin to fully add up.

As the pressure gradient tightens, easterly winds will begin to increase from west to east this afternoon. By this evening, winds will take on a northerly component and decrease in the northwest while becoming quite gusty in parts of the south central and southeast. Overall, these winds will produce widespread blowing snow, with near blizzard conditions possible where the strongest winds develop. Winds will then continue to diminish from northwest to southeast, while any lingering snow ends during the day Sunday.

Trailing high pressure resulting in clear skies with light and variable winds will result in lows dropping into the single digits below zero for most of the state, with the teens below zero possible in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains and in the northeast. That said, with a fresh snowpack, it wouldn't be entirely surprising if temperatures don't clock in even colder than presently forecast when all is said and done. Below average temperatures are progged to persist through Monday night before an incoming ridge and westerly surface winds result in rapidly warming conditions. Most new snow is unlikely to survive across the western half of the state beyond Tuesday and the rest of the state (except the colder northeast) beyond Wednesday and certainly not Thursday.

In regard to additional precipitation, another round is likely to pass through Tuesday. Though uncertainty remains, the current NBM forecast is for mixed precipitation moving across the state from west to east during the day and lingering into the evening. Or rather, snow on the front end and mixed precipitation on the back end. After which, the NBM forecast is currently dry to finish out the second half of next week, though hints of weak embedded shortwaves as flow becomes northwesterly aloft are present via low (less than 15 percent) NBM PoPs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Snow from an incoming winter storm is present over parts of southwestern ND. It has been a bit slower to expand than previously expected. However, returns over the southwest are becoming more organized, and as such, KDIK just recently started reporting light snow. Otherwise, snow will continue expanding northward across the state today into this evening before gradually ending from north to south overnight. Initially easterly winds will increase from west to east across the state today, becoming northerly and windy across all but far northern North Dakota by this evening. This will produce widespread blowing snow, especially in the south central, including the James River Valley, where near blizzard conditions are possible. Winds will begin to gradually diminish from northwest to southeast towards the end of the period, though will linger across the south central and east through the day Sunday.

One final note is that patchy dense fog has developed over parts of northwestern and north central North Dakota. Various observations are now reporting 1/4SM or less visibility mainly in Burke, Renville, Mountrail, and Ward counties. Fog should rapidly clear this morning as influence from the aforementioned winter storm pushes further north.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ017-018. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for NDZ019-020-035. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NDZ031>033-040- 041-043-044. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for NDZ034-042-045-046. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ036-037. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ047-048-050-051.