textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog across northwest and central North Dakota this morning.

- Near-record high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s for the western half of the state today.

- Low to medium chances for light rain and snow on Monday. Temperatures trend slightly cooler next week, but remain above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Currently, broad/dirty upper level ridge over the Northern Plains this morning, with an upper level jet nosing into the Montana Rockies. Mid level wave and left exit region jet dynamics triggering low pressure development across southern Alberta, while a weak flow regime is currently over the Dakotas. Stratus and fog extend from northwest North Dakota southeast through south central ND and points east, with dense fog on the western fringes of the stratus layer over my northwest and central. Will continue to monitor the aerial coverage of the dense fog for further modifications to Dense Fog headlines this morning. As winds become more westerly this morning, do expect the low clouds and fog to push east with time.

Near record breaking highs this afternoon across the western half of the state. A quasi-zonal flow aloft coupled with the warm sector of the aforementioned sfc low spreading east over western and central North Dakota during the day today. This combined with a good westerly mixing flow will result in temperatures approaching 40F in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 60s in southwest North Dakota. Should be plenty of sun as well as clouds decrease from west to east this morning into the afternoon. Will keep forecast highs close to the 75th/90th percentile of the NBM, with a few record highs in jeopardy of being broken with forecast temperatures 30 degrees above normal.

Thereafter, upper level jet stream starts to sag farther south along with a trough developing over the western CONUS. This pattern change will suggest temperatures trending cooler next week (though remaining above normal), along with a more active pattern developing increasing precipitation chances a bit. Models have backed off on chances early next week, now only a brief period of rain/snow chances late Sun into Mon as a mid level wave interacts with a southward dipping cold FROPA. Messy split flow upper level pattern for the remainder of the work week, with no real clear signal for precipitation any given day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility are expected across much of northwest and central North Dakota through tonight and into Sunday morning. At 04Z, dense fog was located between and to the north of KXWA and KMOT. KXWA could remain right on the edge of the low clouds and dense fog. The low ceilings will persist from KMOT to KJMS, and reach KBIS overnight. KBIS has the highest probability for dense fog among TAF sites, followed by KMOT, but it cannot be ruled out at KXWA overnight or KJMS early Sunday morning. KDIK is more likely to remain at VFR conditions.

The low clouds and fog are expected to clear from west to east Sunday morning. All terminals should return to VFR conditions for Sunday afternoon. Mostly light and variable winds tonight becoming west-southwest Sunday afternoon at around 10 kts in central North Dakota to 15-20 kts in western North Dakota. KXWA and surrounding areas could see afternoon gusts approach 30 kts. A period of low level wind shear is expected across parts of north central North Dakota, including KMOT, Sunday evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for NDZ001>003-009>011-019>021. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for NDZ034-035-042.