textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low humidity values and gusty west to southwest winds shifting northwest with a cold front will combine with dry fuels to bring critical fire weather conditions to much of western North Dakota. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- Mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the week, then low to medium chances for rain late this weekend into early next week.

- Notably warmer temperatures today, then cooler but still seasonal temperatures are expected through the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Quiet weather continues, no changes needed to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 451 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Current surface analysis places low over northeast Manitoba, with cold front stretching to the southwest, while high remains over the Upper Midwest into parts of the Central Plains. Upper level analysis places trough over the Midwest, with ridge pushing over the West Coast. A modest short wave continues to push through the Dakotas, but is only resulting in some additional cloud cover.

For today, west to southwesterly winds will bring warmer air into the area, with high temperatures expected to be around 10 degrees above average. Winds start to become breezy over the west, then a cold front enters northwest North Dakota early this afternoon, and drops to the southeast through the afternoon into this evening. Winds will shift northwest and become a bit gusty. The combination of winds and low humidity values over much of western North Dakota will lead to critical fire weather conditions, thus a Red Flag Warning is in place.

Friday will see cooler though still seasonal temperatures over the area in the wake of the aforementioned front as upper flow remains northwesterly, which continues through Saturday.

As we get into next week, upper flow remains west-northwesterly though a variety of short waves are expected to move through. Therefore, low to medium (around 20 to 50 percent) chances for precipitation enter the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Periods of smoke may lead to localized MVFR visibility through the TAF period, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. A cold front will move into western and north central North Dakota this afternoon, moving southeast into the evening. Winds behind the front will increase to 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 451 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The Red Flag warning has been expanded to include Williams County. Although minimum humidity values may only dip into the 20s over much of the county, sustained winds around 25 mph will lead to critical fire weather conditions. As for south central North Dakota, minimum humidity values still look to dip well into the teens, but winds are forecast to remain below criteria, with the cold front passing through after humidity values start to rise.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043- 044.