textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures through the first half of next week, with near-record highs around 90 to 95 Memorial Day and Tuesday.

- Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along the International border, with better chances for precipitation later this coming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Quiet, clear, and calm weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this mid day update. No adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time, as it remains in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this late morning update. The previously observed weak radar returns across portions of the southwest and south central have generally dissipated along with the nocturnal low level jet over North Dakota. Patchy fog across the north central into the James River Valley has also since lifted as diurnal heating kicks in. No adjustments to the forecast were necessary at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A few locations reporting TRACE amounts of precip, so will maintain a mention of light showers early this morning for another 2-3 hours. Overall, no changes to the forecast for this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Currently, quasi-zonal/west-northwest flow aloft behind a departing mid level S/WV trough and ahead of a S/WV mid level ridge. A light south/southeasterly low level flow this morning with surface high pressure to our southeast and a sfc trough over eastern Montana north into western Saskatchewan. Nocturnal low level jet induced mid level clouds have flared up the past couple of hours across portions of western and central ND, along with some light radar returns. For now, opted to introduce slight chance POPs for a few hours, but overall expect it to be dry this morning with cloud bases at or above 10K Ft AGL, along with little if any forcing aloft and minimal elevated instability. Will continue to monitor.

Quasi-zonal flow today and tonight, with an embedded S/WV moving east across the region this afternoon and evening. CAMs and global ensembles are mainly dry, but do highlight my northern two tier counties with some light QPF, where some elevated MUCAPE dips down from the plains of south central Canada. SPC highlights this area as well with general thunder, so opted to add slight chance POPs roughly 21Z-03Z today.

In the wake of this embedded wave, upper level ridging amplifies Monday into Tuesday across the Northern Plains, in response to a potent upper low propagating south along the eastern Pacific/west coastal region. Strong southerly low/mid level flow will transport the warmest airmass thus far this year into our region, with daytime highs both Mon and Tue in the mid 80s to mid 90s, near record values for some locations.

Upper low slowly moves inland through mid-week, strengthening a lee-side surface low to our west. As a result, south/southeasterly winds increase Mon night into Tuesday, which may result in elevated fire weather concerns across the west during the day Tuesday and Wed. In addition, will likely see a nocturnal low level jet both Mon and Tue nighttime, so can't rule out evening/overnight thunderstorms each night. Right now NBM keeps Mon night dry, but does introduce convection Tue night.

Thereafter, ensembles favor the upper ridge gradually weakening/displaced east, while the western CONUS low slowly starts to influence our region while it moves east and morphs into a long wave trough. This scenario would favor a cooling trend and increasing chances for precipitation. Lots of uncertainty still however given a very dynamic weather pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the International Border late this afternoon into the early evening, though they are not expected to impact any given TAF site at this time. Light south to southwest winds will generally persist throughout the period, though may briefly turn southeasterly this evening as a warm front passes through the region, before reorganizing out of the west southwest overnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.