textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through Friday for all of western and central North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- Strong winds will persist through Friday. Widespread blowing dust will continue this evening.

- High chances (60 to 80 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. The highest chances are during the day Sunday.

- Near to below freezing temperatures may return to parts of the area beginning Friday night. The highest probabilities for low temperatures below freezing temperatures are Monday and Tuesday nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 956 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Blowing dust continues to reduce visibility across northern North Dakota this evening, but there has been a steady improvement in the last couple hours. The Blowing Dust Warning was downgraded to an advisory, which is now in effect until midnight CDT.

Winds have also greatly diminished this evening, with very few sites now reporting warning or even advisory level sustained speeds or gusts. However, some guidance does show potential for near-warning criteria winds along the Canadian border through the late overnight hours, with mean 900-800 mb winds around 50 kts, persistent cold air advection, modest pressure rises, and steep low level lapse rates given the time of day. Therefore, we will delay downgrading the High Wind Warning to a Wind Advisory (except for McKenzie County) until we are more confident that warning criteria winds will not be reached. Regardless of when (or if) a downgrade occurs, at least a Wind Advisory will be in effect for all of western and central North Dakota through early Friday evening, along with a Red Flag Warning.

UPDATE Issued at 809 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Quick update to trim counties off the Blowing Dust Warning and Advisory. Except for McKenzie County, all other counties south and west of the Missouri River are free from blowing dust headlines. Some dust still lingers there, but is no longer significantly reducing visibility. The remaining Blowing Dust Warning and Advisory remain in effect until 9 PM CDT. An extension of at least an advisory will need to be considered if conditions don't drastically improve by then.

Low chances for light rain showers and sprinkles were also added to northern parts of the state through this evening, driven by current observations and trends. There was recently some brief lightning to the west of Estevan, but any lightning should remain very infrequent.

UPDATE Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Blowing dust continues to reduce visibility across the northern half of the state, with some minor reductions now as far south as the I-94 corridor from Bismarck eastward. The only headline change in the past couple hours was to the Blowing Dust Advisory, with Foster County being added and Slope, Hettinger, and Grant Counties being removed. All other headlines appear to be tracking well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

An upper level low continues to spin across the southern Saskatchewan. This has placed North Dakota in the dry slot of the upper low. Strong cold advection from the back side of the low and subsidence has tapped a 70 kt jet max at 700 mb has resulted in widespread winds across across the state. The strongest winds so far have been located across the northern tier of continues. The strong winds kicked up dust across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon. Thus, blowing dust has resulted in significant visibility reductions across the state. Therefore, a Blowing Dust Warning and Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for much of western and central North Dakota. High winds will continue into the evening hours and are forecast to decrease a bit tonight. However, winds will stay elevated through the overnight hours and pick up tomorrow morning. Dry conditions and high winds have lead to critical fire weather conditions across the state, (read the fire weather discussion for more information). As for blowing dust, the dust should settle down tonight.

Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to sit in the 70s. Winds are forecast to pick around 25 to 35 mph tomorrow morning with gusts up to 45 mph as the upper low moves over southern Manitoba. Patchy blowing dust is possible tomorrow afternoon as well due to the strong winds. Surface high pressure is forecast to move into the region Friday night bringing forth a chance of frost in the northwest. Saturday temperatures will cool a few degrees in the north while the the south will remain in the mid 70s. The warmer temperatures in the south are from a subtle upper level ridge that increases heights and traverse across the region.

Saturday a broad trough is forecast to dig across Western CONUS. This will place the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the region Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring wide spread rain across the state with the southeast seeing the highest amounts. There is a chance for a few thunderstorm Saturday night into Monday. A secondary trough could move through the region bring in some wrap around showers Tuesday. This wetter pattern will also bring cooler temperatures to North Dakota. Highs will drop down into the upper 40s to 50s Sunday through Tuesday with even the possibility of freezing conditions Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Temperatures could rebound by the middle of the week as another subtle ridge moves across the region. The extended model guidance does have a more active pattern by the end of the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 956 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Blowing dust will reduce visibility as low as IFR levels across northern North Dakota this evening. VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the forecast period. Blowing dust could resume Friday afternoon, but it is not expected to be as intense as today. Westerly winds will become lighter through tonight, but still breezy across the north, then reintensify to around 25-30 kts with gusts to around 40-45 kts Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 407 PM CDT THU May 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue today through tomorrow due to high winds and low relative humidity.

A dynamic upper level low has brought strong west winds across the state this afternoon. Winds have ranged from 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 55 mph in the south and 65 mph in the north. Minimum relative humidity ranges from around 30 percent north to around 15 percent south. Overnight recoveries are forecast to be poor bringing little to no relief for fuels. Winds are forecast decrease tonight a bit and pick up Friday morning. Although there will be a slight reduction in winds tonight winds will remain around 20 to 30 mph. Winds will decrease through Friday, but will remain around 20 to 30 mph through the afternoon with gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to drop down around 15 to 20 percent.

Saturday this upper level low will move off to the east, but dry conditions will linger. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to drop down to around 15 percent across the south and 25 percent across much of the state, however there will be very light northwesterly winds Saturday limiting critical fire weather conditions.

A system is forecast to move into the region Saturday night bringing forth precipitation across the state. There are pretty high probs for 0.5 inches of rain across much of the state and up to 1 inch in the southeast. Next week looks to start out cool keeping minimum relative humidity on the higher side.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for NDZ001>005-009-010- 012-013-055-056. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. Blowing Dust Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017-022-023-025-055>058. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ017-018- 031>033-040-041-043-044. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ019-020- 022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-057>062.