textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm will continue to impact the Northern Plains through Wednesday, with moderate to heavy snow across the south central and east.

- Gusty winds this evening and Wednesday will lead to periods of blowing snow, mainly where and while snow is falling. - Seasonably cool temperatures will continue through the end of the week. There is also a chance (30 to 50%) of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday.

- Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected for next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The next round of precipitation has begun to lift across the North Dakota/South Dakota border at the time of this update, with measurable perception starting to be reported at some of our southern most stations. With that in mind, this precipitation is probably still falling as liquid. A transition to snow has evident in the characteristics of the radar in the southwestern flank of reflectivities still down in South Dakota, so a similar transition is expected to soon occur in our forecast area as well. Otherwise, low clouds continue to blanket the northern Plains this evening. No major changes to the forecast were needed at this time, as it remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Currently, long wave upper level trough over the western CONUS with weak ridging/zonal flow over the eastern CONUS. Initial embedded mid level disturbance coupled with an easterly upglide flow and southerly moisture transport as far south as the Gulf of America produced decent moisture amounts across central and more so eastern areas of the local area the past 12-18 hours or so. Snowfall and moisture with this initial wave have been relatively light, roughly up to around 2 inches of snow or a few tenths of an inch of moisture. This first wave and associated precipitation continues to move off to the east and north, still perhaps creating travel impacts over the Turtle Mountain region. As such, opted to extend the Special Weather Statement there for another couple of hours.

Our next round of moisture tonight into Wed will see heavier amounts and greater coverage as enhanced mid/upper level forcing associated with the base of the western CONUS wave moves east across the Rockies and deepens over the Northern/Central Plains of Nebraska and South Dakota. This forcing, coupled with a continued thermal upglide flow and eventually an associated TROWAL, will bring moderate (and at time heavy) precipitation to central and eastern areas of the state tonight into Wed, with the heavier precipitation and longer duration still expected southeast where winter storm warnings remain in affect (including much of the James River Valley). No changes to headlines with this product issuance as all is on track.

Will still see at times some mixed precipitation, but overall either rain or snow or a mix of both is expected with sfc air temperatures around freezing.

Current system lifts northeast Wed night, followed by a split flow aloft regime through early this weekend. This pattern will support continued cooler temperatures, with another chance for snow Thu night into Friday as a northern stream wave pushes across our region.

Next week, confidence is high for dry weather a warming trend as zonal flow is projected followed by upper level ridging.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Widespread IFR ceilings are found throughout the region to being the 00Z TAF period. A winter storm traversing the northern Plains continues to promote adverse aviation weather conditions. Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will be found throughout the period, with occasional improvements to MVFR at times. Another round of precipitation has begun to move in from south to north this evening, and is expected to rapidly transition to all snow before lingering overnight and through the day Wednesday. Chances for snow will begin to diminish from west to east through Wednesday afternoon. Breezy southeast winds will become more northeasterly by the end of the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ019>023-025-034>036-042-045-046. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ037-047- 048-050-051.