textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost late tonight and early Monday morning over much of the James River Valley region.

- Critical fire weather conditions likely on Monday across western through most of central ND.

- Windy conditions and low humidity values through the rest of the upcoming week may lead to daily critical fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Current surface analysis places high pressure over southern Manitoba and northwest Minnesota into North Dakota, with trough noted to the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places trough off the west coast with ridge over the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Over our area, quiet weather continues with light winds.

The story for the week will be mostly dry and frequently windy conditions. The biggest overall weather impacts will be in regard to fire weather. Those are discussed in the fire weather section below.

For tonight, a short-wave upper level trough will push up the back side of the aforementioned ridge overnight. In response, aforementioned surface trough closes off over over southeast Alberta and moves easterly over south central Saskatchewan. Light winds over our area will become southerly and breezy through the night from west to east as this low moves east. Over our far eastern area, winds will be slow to increase giving time for temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 30s. Therefore a Frost Advisory has been issued for Foster, Stutsman, LaMoure, and Dickey Counties.

On Monday, surface low will push through the far southern prairie provinces as the aforementioned short wave busts through the ridge into the northern plains. Southerly winds will be on the increase, becoming quite gusty especially over central North Dakota. As we get towards mid day, a cold front will enter the west, with winds switching towards the northwest and increasing. The front will move east through the afternoon, entering central North Dakota by late afternoon/early evening.

Dry air will be over our area, especially behind the front, but ahead of the front over parts of central North Dakota, dewpoints will be a bit higher. Guidance continues to suggest a mainly north to south orientated ribbon of instability developing and sliding east. Although this may only be CAPE values of ~200-500 J/kg, quite high forecast deep layer shear (50-60 kts effective bulk) is noted, thus the potential for strong winds. With high- res models starting to pick up on this combined with the approaching upper wave/cold front, will continue to paint in low shower/storm chances over much of northwest/central North Dakota in the afternoon and evening. Gusty winds continue overnight, especially over central North Dakota.

Gusty winds continue behind the front on Tuesday. Although the airmass moving in is quite mild in temperature, good mixing of stronger winds aloft will keep conditions quite windy, especially over central North Dakota.

Surface high passes over Tuesday night with southerly winds developing for Wednesday as the next lee trough deepens and closes off to the east of the Rockies, again coinciding with dry conditions enhancing the fire threat.

As we get later in the week uncertainty remains as clusters continue to show a split in solutions. With that said, the general pattern looks to be somewhat unsettled thus the forecast will keep low precipitation chances in each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Southerly winds will be on the increase overnight into Monday morning from west to east, becoming gusty.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of western through central North Dakota Monday.

Breezy southerly winds will begin to develop tonight as low pressure encroaches from southwestern Canada. Winds will then increase through Monday morning and early afternoon for the eastern half of the state as the low passes through. Associated trailing cold frontal boundary will then shift winds to a northwesterly direction over western parts of the state in the afternoon, followed by eastern parts of the state in the evening. This frontal boundary will produce further windy conditions over western, and especially northwestern, North Dakota. In regard to dewpoints, aforementioned southerly winds will bring brief higher dewpoints, and therefore, somewhat higher relative humidity values. There is still some question as to the timing and exact location of the transition between the higher and lower values. Still, strong winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, combined with dry conditions, will likely produce critical fire weather conditions for most of western through central ND Monday.What could further complicate matters is that there is a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms over northwest and central North Dakota Monday afternoon and evening. Further enhanced and erratic winds are possible with any showers or thunderstorms that develop.

Winds will diminish Monday night over most areas west of Highway 83, though remain breezy along and east. Very windy conditions out of the northwest with gusts up to 50 mph are then expected Tuesday afternoon for the eastern half of the state. Weaker winds to as low as 15 to 20 mph near the ND/MT border are forecast further west. Similar to Monday, minimum relative humidity will drop in western North Dakota, though remain a bit higher in the east. Combined, these dry and windy conditions will likely result in further critical fire weather conditions for much of the state. Winds will rapidly diminish Tuesday evening with the combination of encroaching high pressure and a loss of diurnal heating.

Wednesday through the end of the week will see continued mostly dry conditions. Minimum relative humidity across western through central ND will remain low with the lowest values consistently west of Highway 83. Periodically windy conditions are also expected, though confidence in just how strong the winds become decreases towards the tail end of the week with significant differences in the cluster analysis Thursday. Low chances for a few showers and thunderstorms also enter the picture at the end of the week. With all this, additional days of critical fire weather conditions for at least parts of the area are possible to finish out the latter half of the week.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>048-050-051. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for NDZ025-037-048- 051.