textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 70s on Tuesday, then warming back up to the 80s and 90s by the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 954 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Rain and showers continue to diminish across the county warning area. Winds have died down as the front has pushed southward. Temperatures continue to cool into in the lower 50s with mid to lower 40s forecast tonight. No updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A strong cold front continues to push across the region this afternoon and evening. Winds up to 55 mph have been observed across the south central. A special weather statement has been issued for the frontal passage and the brief period of elevated winds behind the front. Winds across portions of western North Dakota and south central have already subsided. Strong pressure rises behind the front has been the driving factor for windy conditions this evening but the front is starting to work into the southeastern North Dakota with cooler temperatures which will weaken the frontal push. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave passing over western North Dakota which is bringing some showers to western and north central and thunderstorms to the southwest. There have only been around a few hundreths reported from these showers out west. Temperatures are dropping fast behind the front with temperatures in the low 50s out west and overnight lows forecast to be around the mid to lower 40s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Stalled front in the central and east will push eastward through this evening as will a secondary front and upper level west moving in from Montana. A few showers and perhaps isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible along the stalled front through this evening. The stronger storms should mainly be confined to the James River Valley and eastward as a gradient of instability will remain into this evening along with high amounts of shear. Quarter sized hail and winds to 60 mph will be the main threats. Meanwhile, the secondary disturbance could bring a band of mainly showers from west to east through this evening with some isolated thunderstorms. Wildfire smoke will also linger through this evening, with the secondary front clearing out smoke tonight. Lastly, a Red Flag Warning remains in place across southwestern and south central portions for lower RH and gusty winds into this evening. Tonight, clearing skies and lowering winds will bring much cooler temperatures as a surface high moves in. Look for lows in the 40s to lower 50s as a result. Some patchy fog is possible, although a steady northwest wind should limit this potential.

Tuesday and Wednesday will overall be dry with cooler temperatures an some breezy northwest winds. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s, with slightly warmer highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday. Exiting surface high with northwest flow aloft could bring some breezy northwest winds. Meanwhile, low RH values could be found each day especially in the southwest. If these breezy winds and RH values can align then at least near critical fire weather conditions are possible. Currently the stronger winds look to be north and east of these lower RH values, thus will have to monitor for any shifts in the forecast.

Thursday through the end of the week, upper level ridge builds and moves inland. Temperatures will depending on if this ridge flattens and brings zonal flow or stays robust. Both solutions bring a general warming trend to end the week. Highs in the 80s and 90s are forecast as a result, yet NBM spreads indicate it could be warmer. Look for lows generally in the 50s to 60s during this time period. This appears to be a mainly dry pattern to end the week, unless any weak disturbances in northwest flow can bring a few showers. With this dry pattern afternoon humidity values look to remain low through the end of the week. Winds for now look to overall be light, yet will have to also monitor for any changes as gusty winds and low RH could bring at least some increased fire weather concerns at times during this time period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A cold front continues to pass through the south central bringing strong winds with it. Winds will remain out of the northwest as this front moves through the region with wind speeds dropping off later this evening to the overnight hours. Winds are forecast to remain out of the west to northwest. Thunderstorms and showers are possible in the southwest this evening as a system moves across western North Dakota into central North Dakota.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions remains in effect for areas south and west of the Missouri River, except McKenzie County, until 9PM CDT / 8 PM MDT. Dewpoints may be trending slightly lower this afternoon, which would still bring afternoon humidity values in the 20s to 30s for most areas within the Red Flag Warning, with some areas in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Meanwhile a breezy to windy northeast to northwest wind will be found in all areas through this evening. Given lowering humidity values, strong winds, and abundant lightning this morning will still maintain the Red Flag Warning through this evening.

Looking ahead, dry conditions look to be found each day this week despite some cooler temperatures through mid week. Some breezy northwest winds may also linger through mid week. Some increased fire concerns are possible with these lower humidity value and breezy winds. If the mentioned winds can align more with the lower humidity values then some near critical fire weather conditions are possible. This will be worth monitoring through the week.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.