textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected today along and north of the I-94 corridor. Near critical fire weather conditions in far southern North Dakota.

- Above average temperatures today, colder Monday and Tuesday, followed by a gradual warm-up through the rest of the week.

- Low chances for showers tonight through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 843 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Winds remain light across most of the forecast area, though have become breezy in parts of the northwest. They will continue to increase through the morning and especially in the afternoon. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Clear skies across western and central ND this morning with light and variable winds and temperatures in the 30s. Current forecast remains on track. No updates planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Warm and breezy to windy today, then turning colder Monday and Tuesday, followed by a gradual warm-up through the rest of the week.

The battle between the western ridge and eastern trough continues this week with the eastern trough gaining the upper hand after one last warm day today. Much cooler conditions early in the work week with highs only in the 40s and 50s Monday and Tuesday. We then see a gradual warming trend mid to late week as the western Ridge pushes back into the Northern Plains.

We will see breezy to windy conditions and some low precipitation chances tonight and Monday behind the cold front, but with little or no significant precipitation expected. Mostly dry conditions are then expected through the rest of the work week. With our northwest flow pattern though, a hit or miss shower can't be ruled out.

Perhaps, as we head towards the end of the forecast period, we may see a little better chance of shower or thunderstorm activity as there is decent agreement in a Pacific trough moving onshore and at least briefly, breaking down the western ridge. We'll have to see if this wave takes a more northern track and bringing at least some rain chances, or drops more south and east, keeping us mainly dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning will become southwest to west and increase mid to late morning. This afternoon look for gusty west winds across western and central ND. Mid and high clouds will increase late afternoon and tonight and winds shift northwest from north to south as a cold front pushes south through the state. Isolated to scattered high based showers are possible but attim, uncertainty is to high to mention at any one TAF site.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Fire weather concerns continue today and possibly into Monday. Critical Fire Weather Conditions have been expanded south.

A clipper system will drop southeast today from central Saskatchewan into eastern Manitoba/wester Ontario by early this evening, with a cold front extending southwest into far northwest North Dakota and northern Montana. Ahead of this approaching system, North Dakota will be situated in the warm dry sector of the cyclone, ahead of the cold front, with a moderate westerly surface flow extending across the state. Afternoon highs will climb into the 70s with increasing west winds. By this afternoon we expect west winds sustained at 25 to 30 mph across northern North Dakota, with gusts to 45 mph. In central North Dakota, west winds will be a little lighter, 20 to 25 mph with gust to 40 mph. In far southern North Dakota it will be breezy, 15 to 25 mph. The westerly winds will maintain a very dry atmosphere over the state with afternoon humdities down to 15 to 25 percent, pretty much statewide. Because of the low humidities, our Red Flag Hours increased over central North Dakota, along with rates of spread. Therefore, we expanded the Red Flag Warning south to the I-94 corridor. Near critical fire weather conditions remain over far southern North Dakota, where winds are not quite as strong as the central and north, and rates of spread are lower.

For Monday, windy conditions are expected again. However, much cooler temperatures will keep relative humidity values higher than today, generally int the 25 to 40 percent range. Winds on Monday do not look quite a strong as they did yesterday, but there are still a few spots of Red Flag hours showing up. Therefore, near-critical fire weather conditions are possible yet again, though confidence is lower overall. Will monitor.

Tuesday through the remainder of the workweek winds are not forecast to be as strong as this weekend. However, afternoon humidities are frequently projected to range from 20 to 30 percent for much of the area.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037.