textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible today.

- Isolated showers this afternoon.

- Cooler today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual warm-up through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Most of the rain on radar in the southwest does not seem to be reaching the ground yet. Relative humidity is only around 45 percent and cloud bases are at 8000 feet. The forecast is still on track for today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Northwest flow continues across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley from a low pressure system in southern Canada. There are two cold fronts extending off this low pressure, one that has already move through the state, and another currently in central North Dakota. The first front gusted winds to 50 MPH for a short period, the second has light rain along the front. Slight chances for rain was added to the current NBM forecast. The second front is also creating gusty winds, but only to around 30 MPH.

Today will be cooler, but still breezy. Expect highs in the post frontal air to be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s far south. Winds will be from the northwest, gusting near 30 MPH. Winds will be very close to Advisory criteria, especially in the southwest. Some models have strong winds gusting near 50 MPH, and others don't. Confidence is lower, especially with the cold front passage happening now, along with the high pressure bubble. We will wait and see if the winds do end up stronger than forecast. There is still some fire weather danger today with the winds and afternoon humidities dropping to 30 percent. So we will maintain the near-critical wording, pay attention to your local burn restrictions. Under the cyclonic flow from the low pressure system, scattered isolated showers are possible this afternoon. With this, we covered our area in a broad slight chance (20%) through the afternoon.

The rest of this week we will remain in the northwest flow as a ridge builds in the western CONUS. This ridge will slowly force the northwest flow and cooler air to shift east. This in turn will warm our surface temperatures. By this weekend we will be back above normal temperatures with highs possibly in the mid and upper 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR CIGs and breezy through the forecast period. CIGs in the north will be low VFR to high MVFR. Isolated rain showers are possible everywhere this afternoon. Winds will be northwesterly gusting near 30kts, calming in the late evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.