textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions in the southern James River Valley today.

- Temperatures through Monday will range from seasonably mild north to unseasonably warm southwest, followed by a quick but sharp cool down on Tuesday.

- A wintry mix of rain, snow and possibly some freezing rain north and central Sunday night through Monday night. Little or no precipitation is expected south of the I-94 corridor.

- A late week system will bring low to medium chances for rain and snow Thursday through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 938 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The forecast for today remains on track. See below for further discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

No significant changes to the going forecast. Only some minor tweaks to sky cover and blended current observations to mid morning values.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A very broad low amplitude upper level ridge over the western U.S. with an upper trough over the eastern U.S. today will transition to a more zonal flow tonight into Sunday along the northern tier of the U.S. This will bring a rather tranquil weather pattern to western and central ND this weekend. Seasonably mild temperatures north to unseasonably warm temperatures southwest remain in the forecast through the weekend. Dry conditions are anticipated through the day Sunday. The warm and dry conditions will warrant some fire weather concerns.

Regarding Fire Weather...We blended our given dew point guidance with some higher resolution guidance to better represent the low afternoon minimum humidities typical during these low moisture scenarios, both today and Sunday.

Today there are two main areas of concern, the southern James River Valley and southwest ND. We currently have a mention of near critical fire weather conditions over the southern James River Valley. Strong south to southwest winds early this morning are expected to start to diminish by mid to late morning then really drop off this afternoon as they shift more westerly, then to the north northeast by early this evening. This is due to a weak cold front that drops south through the forecast area today. Our forecast highs, and lowest humidities are expected to occur around 4-5 PM. By this time, winds are forecast to have shifted westerly and diminished quite a bit from the morning hours. However, we still may see a couple hours of near critical conditions around midday as humidities are on their way down and winds have yet to diminish substantially. Rates of spread are highest in the late morning to early afternoon and this is also when we see some potential Red Flag Hours in portions of Dickey County. For the time being, as it will be dry and breezy to windy, we will leave the four counties of Dickey, Lamoure, Logan and McIntosh in the near critical category. We'll pass this to the day shift and they can adjust if these trends hold.

In the southwest we are expecting very low humidities of 15 to 20 percent. However, winds are expected to be light as they shift from the northwest in the early afternoon, to northeast by early evening. The low wind speeds should keep fire weather conditions below near critical values.

Sunday the main area of concern looks to be in the far southwest, with minimum humidities around 20 to 25 percent. At this time winds look to be light as they shift from southwest in the morning to northerly in the afternoon. Will need to continue monitoring, but at this time the wind component looks to be lacking to reach near critical conditions.

Monday also looks to be a warm day in the south, with southerly winds in the morning turning north to northwest and increasing in the afternoon. There will be increasing clouds and some low precipitation chance later in the day as a cold front drops south. Will need to monitor again, but there are too many uncertainties in play at this time to mention near critical conditions.

On Monday and Tuesday we see a low amplitude upper trough propagate through the mean zonal flow across the Northern Plains. Initially we see the warm advection precip and possible banding along the northern tier counties Sunday night into Monday morning, then eventually the cold front pushes through the area Monday night. There are a lot of uncertainties with this system, mainly the northward extend of the push of warm air, which may keep most of the precipitation in Southern Canada, but may also result in a higher potential for some freezing rain along the International Border, if the warm air makes it farther north. If not, we could see some decent snow accumulations right along the border. Currently the latest NBM ensemble guidance is showing medium to high probabilities of an inch or more of snow across the northern two tiers of counties in the northwest and north central (Williams to Pierce, and north) and medium to high probabilities for 2 or more inches of snow from Burke and northern Mountrail east across Renville and northern Ward and northeast to Bottineau and Rolette counties. There is a low probability of 4 or more inches in portions of Bottineau and Rolette counties. All of these are 24 hour probabilities valid late Sunday evening through late Monday evening. There are also low probabilities of some freezing rain over these northern two tiers of counties in the northwest and north central. Areas from the Highway 2 corridor and south will see a quick decrease in snow amounts with little or no potential for freezing rain, due to the warmer temperatures. As you get into southern ND, areas south of the I-94 corridor may see little if any precipitation, although there is a lot of uncertainty and the NBM 1D viewer is showing a low probability for a quarter inch of rain along the I-94 corridor.

The mid to late week system still looks a bit disorganized as it tracks across the Plains. A lot of the uncertainty looks to be if it will be more of a northern system, a southern system or something in-between. As well as the timing of the system in general. As mentioned yesterday, when looking at the ensemble surface pressure pattern and surface low positions, there remains a large envelope of solutions once the system moves east of the high plains. The strength of the system also weakens as it exits the high plains, probably a result of the large uncertainty in a northern, southern or split solution. Looking at the potential for qpf, the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles both show a medium to high probability for a tenth of an inch or more of liquid, but a low probability for a half inch or more of qpf. With the warmth of this system the potential for impactful snow totals looks to be low at this time. Yesterday at Bismarck there were some low probabilities of 48 hour snow totals >8 and >12 inches. These have all but disappeared, and the probabilities for 48 hour snow totals of >2 and >4 inches have also dropped to low probabilities. We are still quite a ways out so we will see how things evolve as we move through this weekend. However, at this time it looks like it's possible we see more impactful weather with the early week system, albeit over a pretty small area, than with the late week system. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the 12Z forecast period with only high and some mid level clouds through the period. There will be a brief period of LLWS at KJMS to begin The period, lasting through around 15 UTC. There will be a slow but deliberate wind shift from south to begin the TAF period, to west then north and easterly by this evening. Southerly winds will be strong this morning over the James River Valley, including KJMS, then diminishing by midday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.