textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and near to above normal temperatures are expected through Saturday.

- Much colder with medium to high chances for precipitation late Saturday night through Monday.

- Rain could mix with or change over to snow in western parts of the state Sunday night into Monday. Minor snow accumulations cannot be ruled out, but the probability for impactful snowfall is very low.

- Near freezing temperatures Sunday night, then widespread below freezing temperatures possible Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Currently, west/northwest flow aloft with broad upper level ridging over the Northern Rockies and a weak southerly return flow over the Northern Plains.

Broad upper level ridge migrates east into the Northern Plains tomorrow, as a deep upper level low develops into southwestern Canada. Lee side surface trough deepens across the Northern High Plains as a result, increasing southerly return flow and WAA into the region. Afternoon highs tomorrow will warm well into the 70s to low/mid 80s, well above our normal values in the lower 60s.

Southwest flow aloft develops on Saturday, pushing the surface trough east into the central Dakotas during the day. This allows CAA on the backside of the frontal boundary but remains warm along and east (highs Sat from low 60s northwest to low 80s southeast). Embedded lead waves originating from a deepening west coast trough overspread the region Sat night into Sunday, with the sfc trough/frontal boundary slowly moving to the southeast. This allows CAA to overspend all of western and central North Dakota, with high temperatures Sun aft ranging from the mid 40s northwest to lower 60s southeast. Precipitation chances start to increase via NBM/ensembles Sat night/Sun, and especially Sunday night through Monday when upper level jet support (left exit region) increases, favorable for widespread precipitation. CAA and falling sfc temperatures may also result in some snow possibly mixing in with rain Sun night/Mon AM, though little if any accumulation expected.

Split flow aloft early next week will maintain below normal high temperatures in the 40s (Mon) and 50s (Tue) along with mainly dry weather. Widespread near to below freezing temperatures also forecast both Sunday and Monday nights, with Monday night/Tue morning looking like the better chance for a freeze and associated headlines.

GEFS/EC ensemble means favor a southern stream low/S/WV trough lifting through central Rockies and into the Great Plain mid to late next week, and would suggest a moderation in temperatures as well as increasing precipitation chances for the Dakotas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z forecast period. Winds will primarily be south to southeast around 5-10 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.