textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain below normal today, then trend warmer through this week.

- Low to medium chances (20% to 40%) for light precipitation at times this week, with high uncertainty in timing, placement, and amounts.

UPDATE

Issued at 948 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Updated hourly weather elements with latest obs and trends. Otherwise, changes were very minimal to the forecast for today.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Skies remain clear across most of the state, little updates made.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Currently northwest flow is over the Dakotas, with an upper level low over Wisconsin, and a slight ridge over Montana. At the surface high pressure dominates the Dakotas and Upper Mississippi River Valley region. There are no clouds in the Dakotas. With that warmer air associated with the ridge to the west, wind chills this morning should not be to a dangerous level.

Today that ridge will move over North Dakota while it flattens out. Temperatures will only be slightly warmer today, but still below normal. Monday the flow starts to tip back to the northwest as that zonal flow pops out a weak Alberta Clipper from the Canadian Rockies. This will impact the state beginning late Monday evening. Monday will be significantly warmer under the warming zonal flow. Look for highs near 50 in the southwest to the mid 20s in our east. The clipper system will likely start as rain with these temperatures early Monday night in the north. As the nocturnal temperatures start, the rain will turn to snow overnight, and spread south to South Dakota by Tuesday morning. As of now, the NBM only has chances (30%) for this system from uncertainty in timing and location. Snow accumulations look to be minimum because of this in our forecast. If any does occur it will be less than an inch and in the north and east.

Tuesday a much stronger and organized low pressure will form off the United States side of the Rockies Mountains. This one will impact the state Wednesday. Temperatures will remain around normal so mostly snow is expected across the central and east. This time most of the precipitation will occur across all of Western and Central North Dakota through Wednesday evening. In the west, where temperatures will be above freezing, it will be a rain snow mix as temperatures aloft are below freezing. Accumulations look to be small again as it is a quick moving system, expect less than an inch. There are also uncertainties with this one, although the NBM seems a little more confident with 40 percent chances.

The rest of this week will be quiet and dry, with above normal temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Next weekend could get cooler again as northwest flow grazes cooler air on the northern half of the state.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR this morning and clear skies. KJMS will have MVFR CIGs through the morning however. Winds will be northerly around 10kts, turning southeast tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.