textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. The threat for severe weather is low.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures this weekend, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- A gradual warming trend through next week, along with continued chances for precipitation each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 928 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly in a north/south line in the Highway 83 corridor. These will continue moving east through the late evening. To the west there are weak isolated rain showers. The rest of the forecast is on track.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The upper level shortwave has entered western North Dakota, thus widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed. No severe storms are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a steady northwest low/mid level flow across the region. Diurnal instability along with subtle embedded waves in flow aloft contributing to widespread CU along with some weak to modest radar returns. Little shear present limiting so far any stronger updrafts.

A more defined embedded S/WV trough slides across the Dakotas later today through tonight, and will bring a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms from west to east across western and central North Dakota. One can already see this activity to our west over north central and northeastern Montana. Some increase in bulk shear values, so a few stronger storms will be possible with this wave.

Continued unsettled northwest flow for Friday, with enough CAPE and shear for diurnally driven chances for showers or a few thunderstorms north central and east.

S/WV mid level ridge building over the Northern High Plains region within a broader split flow regime Saturday, results in increasing south-southeasterly flow and WAA, leading to warmer temperatures to start the weekend. Both a northern and southern stream S/WV trough then propagate east towards the Dakotas later in the weekend, with the southern stream feature more progressive and moving across South Dakota Sunday, keeping precip chances along the ND/SD border area and south. A sfc trough associated with the northern stream wave remains along the MT/ND border, keeping precip chances far west Sunday, with dry conditions expected elsewhere. The northern stream S/WV is then forecast to close off over the Northern Plains Sun night through Monday, and will bring widespread chances for showers and storms to much of the state this period.

Thereafter, a slow warming trend is favored through the work week as ensemble means depict zonal flow and/or ridging developing across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains. In the wake of this flow pattern, long range ensembles in fair agreement with a troughing pattern materializing to our west, which would tend to maintain near normal temperatures and bring better chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR through the period with scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and through the night. Winds could be erratic and gusty this these storms. There could be some MVFR CIGs Friday morning, before clearing out and becoming breezy. Winds will be from the west/northwest 15 to 30kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.