textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Wednesday, mainly in the north and central.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend, with strong to severe storms possible.

- Temperatures remain at or slightly below normal through Friday, then will be closer to normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Currently a stacked low pressure system sits in the Canadian side of the Red River Valley, with an occluded front down through far eastern North Dakota. A surface high pressure centered in Montana has weak influence across North Dakota. Wrap around moisture along a surface trough on the backside of the low has popped scattered showers across the north in the diurnal cumulus field. This will continue through the evening, especially when that trough swings into the state. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with these, but no severe weather is expected. There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) in eastern ND for severe storms along that occluded front.

Wednesday afternoon looks similar with afternoon scattered showers as the cyclonic flow near the low continues. Through this week the below normal temperatures will continue in the zonal flow. Little waves from the northern Rockies will create on and off chances for showers through the week. This weekend a large low pressure will dip down into the Pacific Northwest, creating very active southwest flow in the Northern Plains Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as dewpoints could reach the low to mid 60s. Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening as the trough strengthens and becomes more diffluent over the state. In the evening a low level jet with warm and moist air could increase in strength leading to the threat continuing through the evening. As of now SPC has most of western and central North Dakota in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) in their day 5 outlook. All of this is subject to many changes as we are still 5 days out.

Sunday looks like another day where strong to severe storms are possible as the strong trough and warm air advection continues. Because of this, the high temperatures through the weekend will be much closer or above normal and continue into next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MVFR to VFR through the period. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will occur across the north and central through this evening. VIS could drop briefly in the showers. West winds gusting around 30kts today, switching to the north or northwest Wednesday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.