textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record high temperatures on Friday, then much colder this weekend into early next week.

- Mostly dry through the weekend, with only low to medium chances for light rain in the northwest Friday night.

- Windy Friday night through Saturday morning.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions in southwest North Dakota Friday afternoon and early evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Light southeast winds continue with mild overnight temperatures currently in the upper 40s to lower 60s across the forecast area. No changes needed with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1016 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

No major changes are needed for this update. Current conditions and trends were once again blended into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The forecast remains in good shape. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Broad upper level ridging continues to promote warm and dry weather over the northern Plains this afternoon, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light (around 10-15 MPH) south to southeast winds expected through the afternoon. With the ensemble consistently underperforming with high temperatures this week we have nudged temperatures a 1 to 3 degrees higher this afternoon utilizing a 1:1 blend of NBM:NBM90, resulting in forecast highs broadly in the 70s this afternoon. Have opted to leave forecast low temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s as increasing cloud cover this evening and overnight will prevent the low temperature crash we've seen earlier this week. A few climate sites are set to break their daily record high min, including BIS, DIK, JMS, and XWA.

Conditions on Friday will then be characterized by an upper level trough lifting across the Rockies and eventually closing off over the southern Canadian Prairies through the early weekend. With flow over North Dakota turning southerly as the trough approaches, Friday is expected to the warmest day of the week with highs from the lower 70s to lower 80s. During the daytime lee cyclogenesis is expected to spit out a center of low pressure over southern Montana, which is then to slowly be lifted into the forecast area through the evening and overnight into Saturday. The passage of this low and its attendant cold front is expected to promote chances (20 to 50 percent) for rain over portions of the west. With the warmer weather we have been monitoring the potential for isolated thunderstorms accompanying these showers early Friday evening, but with surface winds turning southwesterly and advecting drier air across the west Friday afternoon the chances remain very low (less than 10 percent).

The main forecast challenge for Friday and Saturday will be the potential for strong winds across much of western and central North Dakota. Increasing low level lapse rates and an initial push of CAA will allow gusty south to southwest winds (sustained 20 to 25 MPH gusting up to 35 MPH) to mix down from a develop 850mb over portions of the west. Later Friday night through Saturday morning, stronger CAA and greater pressure rises is then expected to promote strong northwesterly winds sustained around 25 to 30 MPH and gusting as high as 45 MPH across the area. Have continued Portions of the forecast area are expected to approach Wind Advisory criteria during this period, though confidence is too low for headlines at this time.

Otherwise for Saturday and beyond, cooler conditions with highs broadly in the 40s and 50s are expected behind the cold front. Looking ahead, there's decent ensemble agreement on swinging another closed low out of the south across western and central North Dakota early Monday through Tuesday, and again Wednesday through early Thursday. The NBM advertises near daily low to medium chances for PoPs through this period, with enough variation in storm track between ensemble members to limit confidence at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

LLWS to begin the 06Z TAF period at KJMS. LLWS will return to KJMS, KBIS and KMOT after 00Z Saturday as surface winds diminish this evening, with strong winds aloft.

There is a low probability of some low stratus this morning at TAF sites, but confidence is too low to add at any TAF site. Expect mostly VFR conditions today. Period of MVFR ceilings are possible later tonight over the far west, but at this time it looks like this will occur after 06Z Saturday.

South to southeast surface flow today 15 to 30 kts will turn westerly tonight 20 to 35 kts with some high gusts, and continue west to northwest into Saturday morning, before diminishing from west to east Saturday afternoon.

VFR conditions expected

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.