textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend, with some breezy winds across the east today.

- Below average temperatures starting Tuesday through the end of November.

- Strong northwest winds are forecast Monday night through Wednesday, with the strongest winds on Tuesday.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow Monday night through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 402 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A mainly dry cold front will push across the state today. Some breezy northwest wind may be found as a result, especially in the east. Slightly cooler, yet still above normal, temperatures are also forecast, with an upper level ridge overhead will keeping a mild airmass in place. This same upper level ridge will help clear out skies today. Another weak and mainly dry disturbance could move through tonight returning some mid to upper level clouds, bring steady westerly flow, and mild overnight lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Zonal flow aloft with west southwest flow at the surface is then expected for Sunday. This will bring mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures into the 50s for most areas. Mild temperatures and dry conditions will then be found Sunday night, with forecast lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Some increased clouds cover will also be found ahead of a developing low pressure system.

One more mild day looks to be found Monday, with highs in the 40s. Most models have an initial wave kicking out of the desert southwest Monday, with a trailing clipper type wave moving through Monday night. How these two waves interact, along with the placement of a broad surface low, will greatly determine winter weather chances and impacts early to mid next week. Currently both of the dominate cluster solutions have at least increased the chances for accumulating snow across the state, with the current NBM chances around 30 to 70 percent in a 24 hour period through Tuesday. Chances for more impactful snow amounts still relies on how far north the heavier snow sets up. ECMWF ensembles are still further north or more progressive, while GEFS ensembles develop the surface low more and brings higher snowfall amounts further south and across the state. Each of these solutions have similar chances of occurring, although Canadian Ensemble members more favor a GEFS solution. Even in the more progressive ECMWF solution, there are still some small shift of tails for snowfall indicating low chances for higher snowfall amounts. Overall current forecast has rain and snow developing from west to east Monday afternoon and evening, with snow chances pushing eastward Monday night through Tuesday. Chances for over 2 inches of snow according to the NBM during this time period are about 10 to 40 percent, with the higher amounts in northern, central, and eastern portions. Thus there is low to medium chances for impactful snow, yet medium to high chances for widespread accumulating snow. With this system could still be strong winds as the cold front moves through. Depending on snowfall amounts this could bring some blowing and drifting snow. ECMWF EFI values hinting southern North Dakota as the location with the strongest winds during passage of this low. Temperatures will cool each day behind this front with highs mid week in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens.

Thanksgiving through the weekend, there remains high confidence in colder temperatures remaining through the holiday weekend, with low to medium chances for additional snow. Surface high looks to limit chances for snow on Thanksgiving, although a stalled boundary may bring some snow in the west. This high pushes eastward Friday, with chances for snow possible as this mentioned front lifts north and east. Clusters then show another broad trough pattern possible for next weekend. The result will be continued colder temperatures and the return for chances of widespread accumulating snow. There remains a lot of uncertainty on how far south this next trough moves through, with further south solutions bringing less snow chances to North Dakota. It is of note that current NBM chances for at least an inch or more of snow in a 48 hour period next weekend are currently low to medium (30 to 60%) chances with the higher chances along and south of Interstate 94. Thus something to monitor in addition to the front moving through early to mid next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with some mid to high clouds at times. Winds will turn to the west- northwest around 10 kts tonight through Saturday, and may become gusty at times.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.