textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight with the main hazards being hail to 1 inch diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms to be found Wednesday and Thursday. The threat for severe weather is low.

- Strong northwest winds are possible in southwestern and south central North Dakota on Wednesday.

- Near normal temperatures to be found today. Temperatures below normal Wednesday and Thursday, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Some light radar returns are showing up in the west, although limited reports have been noted so far. Still light rain is possible this morning into early afternoon from west to east. Overall the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Surface low will bring a warm front today, followed by a cold front and isolated severe weather this evening through tonight. Warm front combined with warm air advection aloft will bring increasing clouds this morning, and perhaps some unorganized showers from west to east this morning into this afternoon. Limited thunderstorm activity is expected with this initial push of the warm front today given limited instability and some capping. Closer to the surface low could be some breezy westerly winds in the southwest today. Meanwhile most areas should see warmer temperatures behind the warm front with highs near normal in the 70s to lower 80s. This evening through tonight, surface low moves south as an upper level wave moves in. Warm front stalls and then progresses southward as a weak cold front. The end result could be some isolated severe thunderstorms this evening into the early overnight hours. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for much of western and central North Dakota. Shear remains high with this setup, although the shear vector is parallel to slightly angled to the mentioned frontal boundary. Thus storm mode could be linear to multicluster today. This combined with lower CAPE and DCAPE values may also limit severe weather potential today. Thus will maintain the main hazards right at severe criteria today. Straight hodographs could indicate perhaps an increased hail threat at times depending on timing of the mentioned front. There is a brief window where hodographs are showing some increased SRH today, although higher LCLs and a lack of supercell storm mode should limit the tornado threat today. As this front and upper wave stalls tonight, widespread showers with a few thunderstorms are then expected across much of the area. Lows tonight will generally be in the 50s.

Cooler conditions are then expected for Wednesday as the stalled front moves southward bringing in cooler air with highs in the 60s. An increased gradient, combined with pressure rises, and some cold air advection could bring some strong winds to the southwest and south central Wednesday, with gusts up to 50 mph. This will have to be monitored for potential wind highlights. Less shear and instability are also expected for Wednesday, limiting the severe weather threat. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue for Thursday under northwest flow aloft. The threat for severe weather again remains low. Temperatures may warm slightly, yet still remain below normal.

Friday into the upcoming weekend, clusters indicating northwest to zonal flow aloft likely depending on the building and sustaining of a ridge to our west. The general westerly flow should warm temperatures to near normal, although temperature spreads indicate slightly above or below normal temperatures possible through the weekend. If more zonal flow sets up from the flattening of the ridge, weak waves in this flow could bring some shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. CSU- MLP currently showing the chance for severe weather stays to our south, in the central plains and closer to a developing surface low. This surface low could, however, bring some breezy easterly winds this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A round of showers may push from west to east during the day, although VFR conditions are expected to prevail, and most sites have PROB30 mentioned for this shower activity. This evening could see another round of shower, with thunderstorms also possible, mainly across western and south central portions. After this push of thunderstorms another round of mainly light rain is possible. A mix of PROB30 and prevailing groups were used in the TAFs for these chances. Overall VFR conditions are expected, with some brief MVFR conditions possible with any heavier shower or thunderstorm.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.