textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and near to above normal temperatures are expected through Saturday.

- Much colder with medium to high chances for precipitation late Saturday night through Monday.

- Most of the precipitation will fall as rain, but some snow could mix in across western parts of the state Sunday night into Monday.

- Near to below freezing overnight temperatures are possible early next week, beginning Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

High pressure at the surface will dominate the weather pattern the rest of today and tonight before the center slides off to the southeast on Thursday. A broad upper-level ridge remains in place over the western CONUS and the axis will gradually move towards the northern Plains Thursday, and overhead by Friday. This pattern will mean highs on Thursday similar to today, mainly ranging from the low to mid 60s over the Turtle Mountains and vicinity, to the lower 70s across the southwest. Then as the ridge axis moves overhead on Friday, a warm front will lift north across the forecast area. This feature should lead to well above normal temperatures across most of the area on Friday with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s northeast to the low to mid 80s southwest.

We then transition to southwest flow aloft on Saturday as an energetic trough starts to amplify/dig over the Pacific Northwest. A surface low will drag a potent but dry cold front across the state from west to east at some point on Saturday while timing still remains a bit uncertain. Most of the forecast area should still see highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s but the northwest may not climb out of the 60s as the front moves through here before peak heating. This frontal passage will lead to much colder temperatures Saturday night into Sunday for most locations. Widespread lows in the mid to upper 30s are expected across much of the north and west with readings mainly in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. The one exception could be over the far south central and James River Valley where a few upper 40s and lower 50s remain possible. Much will depend on the frontal passage timing here. Highs on Sunday will only range from the mid 40s northwest to the upper 50s/lower 60s southeast. The coldest air of the season thus far then arrives Sunday night/Monday morning with lows mainly in the 30s. A few readings in the upper 20s will even be possible across the northwest. Freeze headlines may end up being needed as we get closer.

Precipitation chances will also start to increase Saturday night/Sunday as a shortwave ejects into the northern Plains from the western trough. The flow then splits as an upper low cuts off across the southwest CONUS and another messy shortwave or two crosses the region in the northern stream Monday/Monday night. This will lead to widespread medium/high chances of precipitation at times Saturday night through Monday night. Overall QPF amounts don't appear to be too impressive at this time with NBM 24-hour QPF probabilities of quarter inch or greater maxing out in the 30 to 60 percent range. While the vast majority of the precipitation will fall as rain, some snow may mix in across the west Sunday night/Monday morning. The highest precipitation chances and highest amounts are favored across the southwest.

Model agreement then breaks down towards midweek but progressive ridging is favored to move through on Tuesday which may give us at least a little break in precipitation chances. Ensemble spread remains high during this time frame as the models struggle to resolve the progression of the southwest CONUS upper low, so will continue to run with the NBM slight chances of precipitation on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain on the colder side with more widespread readings in the 30s for lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Progressive ridging may lead to a slight warmup for highs by midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will become north-northwest and increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon, with some higher gusts possible. Light and variable winds return this evening through tonight, with increasing mid to high clouds.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.