textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog possible southwest and south central this morning.

- Another system may bring a light rain and snow mix to portions of northwest and far north central North Dakota today into this evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Widespread mist continues mainly along and south of I94 with visibility generally remaining in excess of 1 mile. There remains the potential for patchy dense fog to develop this morning, especially as the sun rises. However, BUFKIT model forecast soundings are still not the most favorable overall. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Shortwave energy over the Dakotas will lift into Canada this morning, while surface low currently analyzed over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa will continue to lift northeast through the day today. The resultant loss of forcing will result in any lingering rain/snow in central parts of the state to taper off. However, secondary shortwave energy and a clipperesque surface low passing from west to east along the International Border will bring additional precipitation chances to the northwest mainly during the day today, and then to the far north this evening. This system is looking a bit cooler than it was yesterday which may produce snow or a rain/snow mix rather than rain itself. Either way, even if it snows, accumulations are unlikely.

Other than precipitation chances, low-level stratus will persist through this morning before beginning to clear from southwest to northeast this afternoon. As this stratus continues to sink early this morning, widespread fog may develop. Just how dense it becomes and over how large of an area remains in question. The elevated terrain over southwestern North Dakota seems the most favored area for patchy dense fog. Though breezy winds at the surface (west) and just off the surface (south central and into the James River Valley) may keep it more low-level stratus with minor visibility reductions. Will continue to monitor through the morning hours should any headlines be needed.

A little light rain is possible Wednesday in the southeast, including the James River Valley. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday. Periodic precipitation chances are then in the forecast Friday night, through this weekend, and into early next week. Based on the current temperature trends, most of this precipitation is favored to be in the form of rain, though some snow may mix in at times.

Speaking of temperatures, cooler conditions are on tap north and east today with highs in the 40s. However, highs in the 50s are expected where skies clear earlier in the southwest. For the rest of this week, highs are favored to range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south, with some variance day to day. Lows will be mostly in the 20s to low 30s, though may be a bit warmer this weekend. All in all, these temperatures are near average to seasonably above average for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Low-level stratus persists across most of the state with LIFR ceilings present over much of the southern half. The lowest ceilings will continue pushing north through the morning before conditions improve this afternoon. Widespread mist is present under said LIFR stratus. Currently visibilities from mist are mostly MVFR/IFR, however, patchy dense fog could still develop this morning, especially as the sun rises. Otherwise, a light rain/snow mix is possible in northwestern North Dakota today, which could lead to additional reductions in visibility.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.