textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible near the North Dakota/South Dakota border late this afternoon through the early evening.

- Highs in the 70s and 80s today and Friday, warming into the 80s and low 90s for the weekend.

- A more active severe weather pattern looks to be in store over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week with periodic showers and thunderstorms, and near daily chances for severe thunderstorms somewhere within the forecast area.

For today, mostly dry conditions are expected as surface low pressure over southern Manitoba gradually churns eastward and keeps drier air over most of the forecast area. That said, Gulf moisture present over South Dakota may advect into far southern North Dakota. This could provide a little enhanced instability late this afternoon or evening. Combined with marginal shear, there is a low chance for severe thunderstorms near the ND/SD border, though severe storms are favored to remain focused mainly south of the state. 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail are the most likely threats.

Overnight tonight, isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are possible across most of the forecast area. These are not anticipated to be severe at this time. A few of these may linger into early Friday morning, though overall Friday should be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A few diurnal showers and thunderstorms could be forced from WAA off developing southwesterly flow aloft Friday afternoon, though available moisture appears limited and these would be favored primarily over the eastern half of the state. With weak deep layer shear and limited instability, any thunderstorms Friday afternoon will likely remain sub-severe.

As alluded to by mentions of southwesterly flow aloft in the previous paragraph, low pressure will partially dig into the west CONUS this weekend with associated trough lifting through the Northern Plains. This will increase the severe weather threat Saturday and especially Sunday. Current models favor Gulf moisture streaming into western ND on Saturday. However, the strongest forcing off mid-level s/w energy is favored to remain in Montana, while uncertainty in location of surface low development remains. Overall, concur with SPC and CSU machine learning that Saturday will favor eastern Montana more than western North Dakota for severe weather, though a conditional threat, especially along and near the ND/SD border remains.

Sunday currently contains the highest risk of the severe weather outlook as aforementioned trough continues lifting through the Northern Plains. With more favorable upper level dynamics and models in fair model agreement on a surface low sliding through North Dakota, severe weather seems probable to some extent. One fly in the ointment is a secondary upper level circulation progged southeast of the state. This may result in a sharp gradient in the strength of deep layer shear from northwest to southeast where stronger shear is favored in northwestern parts of the region and weaker shear in the southeast. This would favor severe weather in the western half of the state similar to SPCs outlook with lower probabilities further east, and a case where storm intensity may decrease as storms track eastward.

Models favor another trough digging into the west CONUS next week. However, there is disagreement in regard to the amplitude of this next trough, as well as the timing when/if it lifts through the Northern Plains. All in all, periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected next week with occasional severe weather possible.

Warm temperatures in the mid 80s to the low and possibly mid 90s are expected for most of the state Saturday and Sunday. A cooldown is then expected Monday behind a cold frontal boundary, after which warm temperatures and another cool down are favored for the middle and end of the week. Of note, gusty southerly winds are expected Saturday and Sunday across most of the state.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight. Early this afternoon, any potential showers will be limited mostly to near the ND/SD border. Later this afternoon and overnight, chances will expand across most of western and central ND. A severe storm or two is possible near the ND/SD border late this afternoon or early evening. Nevertheless, confidence is only high enough in precipitation to include in the KDIK TAF as a PROB30 at this time. For other terminals, showers, possibly with a few rumbles of thunder, are expected to be more isolated resulting in low confidence in regard to timing and coverage. With the exception of during any showers and thunderstorms that may occur, VFR ceilings and visibility, along with light and often variable winds, are expected through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.