textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Precpitation will diminish from west to east through the day.

- Strong winds expected in the southern James River Valley today.

- Mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through the first part of the week, then a warming trend develops.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Getting some reports of light snow in southwestern ND, with visibility down to 1 or 2 miles at times for Dickinson. Road temperatures and reports from ND show that snow in that area has been melting on surfaces, and impacts are low at this point. Precipitation will continue to taper off from west to east during the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered light precpitation is found over portions of western and south central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. With lows from the mid 20s west to mid 30s east, a line of transition from rain to snow has begun to shift into central North Dakota. When and where snow is falling, visibilities as low as 2 to 3 miles have been observed, though this has generally been short lived at any give location. The expectation is that precipitation will continue to diminish and shift eastward through the morning, as the inciting low moves into southern Minnesota and eventually the Great Lakes Region. Otherwise this morning, north winds have started to strengthening, with sustained speeds up to 20 MPH and gust up to 30 MPH already observed over portions of the southwest and south central. Overall the forecast appears to be in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Southwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains this morning as a closed low over the southern Canadian Prairies is progged to slowly slink off toward Hudson Bay through the day today. At the surface, a low pressure system moving across eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota is promoting precpitation across much of western and central North Dakota this morning. While mainly falling as rain, some snow is found along the northwestern extent of this precipitation as cooler air moves in behind this system. Chances for precpitation will diminish from west to east this morning and through the early afternoon as the inciting low pressure system moves off into the Great Lakes Region, and as high pressure moves in from the northwest through the day today. Additional QPF this morning through this afternoon is expected to be fairly light, with low to medium chances to exceed 0.10" an inch of precipitation found across the far south and the James River Valley.

With the decent pressure gradient draped across the northern Plains between the incoming high pressure center and the exiting low pressure system, breezy to windy conditions are expected this afternoon, though the lack of strong winds aloft will limit the overall potential. Portions of the southern James River Valley are expected to approach Wind Advisory criteria late this morning into this afternoon, with sustained speeds around 25 to 30 MPH and isolated gusts as high as 45 MPH, especially when and where rain is falling. As such, a Windy Advisory will be in effect for portions of south central North Dakota from 7 AM CDT this morning through 7 PM CDT this evening. Winds should diminish fairly quickly in the late afternoon and early evening as the the low moves further to the northeast and the gradient relaxes.

Otherwise for today below normal temperatures are expected to continue across the northern Plains, reinforcing with the cooler air moving in behind the low pressure system. Low temperatures this morning are from the mid 20s west to the upper 30s east, while highs this afternoon are forecast broadly in the 40s to lower 50s. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to diminish through the afternoon and evening as high pressure becomes more established over the area.

A somewhat messy but broadly north-northwesterly flow regime is then expected Tuesday through the remainder of the workweek as a transient ridge makes landfall into the Pacific northwest. Mainly dry weather and warming conditions are anticipated through this period, though the occasional shortwave perturbation could promote low chances (10 to 30 percent) for rain each day across our south. With this warming trend, highs broadly in the 50s are expected Tuesday through Thursday, before peaking into the 60s and lower 70s this weekend. Looking further ahead, ensemble members broadly advertise a transition to more strictly northwesterly flow late Sunday into early next week as the transient ridge is absorbed into the general flow pattern. With this, we could expected at least some chance for precipitation across the area some time during this period, though there is no strong signal for any real rainmakers at the time of this forecast cycle. Cluster analysis reveals that the most ensemble members advertise at least some light precpitation across much of the forecast area by late Sunday into Monday, though there is some disagreement on whether or not this will be fairly widespread (60 percent of members), or more restricted to our far southern counties (40 percent). In either scenario, high temperatures would be expected to be a little cooler compared to the preceding weekend, near to slightly below normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered light precpitation persists across portions of western and south central North Dakota to start to the 12Z TAF period. When and where precpitation is falling, lowered ceilings to MVFR to IFR levels can be found. A general transition from light rain to light snow has begun to move from northwest to southeast as temperatures cool, reducing visibility to MVFR conditions when and where snow is falling. These visibility reductions are expected to be fairly brief at any given TAF site. Precipitation is expected to diminish from west to east through the late morning and afternoon, with ceilings similarly improving. Prevailing VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. North winds have started to strengthen, and are expected to continue to do so through the afternoon. The strongest winds across south central North Dakota will be gusty, with sustained speeds up to 20-25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds will generally diminish through the late afternoon and evening, becoming light overnight through the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ025-036-037- 047-048-050-051.