textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas remaining under cloud cover this morning will remain above freezing. Freeze warning continues for areas that have cleared.

- Gusty northwest winds develop for Thursday, with gusts to 45 mph possible.

- Notably milder temperatures to end the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Pesky low stratus remains over much ov central ND, with patchy dense fog remaining in the northwest/north central covering portions of the Highway 2 corridor from Stanley to Tioga. Will extend the mention of fog through 16Z and made adjustments to increase stratus through the morning. The Freeze Warning was allowed to expire.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Cloud cover continues to hold over central into parts of northwest North Dakota. Going forecast addresses this well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 431 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Current surface analysis places low over British Columbia into western Alberta, while high settles through the Dakotas. Upper level analysis places low over the Arizona/Utah border with split flow over the western CONUS. We remain near the confluence of the flow, with west to northwest flow over our area. Speaking of our area, low clouds remain rather entrenched generally along and east of the Missouri River, which have kept temperatures on the warmer side, whereas areas that have cleared have dipped into the mid 20s to around 30. With the clouds reluctant to depart, have decided to cancel the Freeze Warning over our eastern areas.

For today, aforementioned clouds over eastern parts of our area will gradually dissipated and move out as the day moves on. Where it has cleared, areas of fog will remain a concern through mid-morning.

Later today into tonight winds will shift southerly as aforementioned surface low shifts into Saskatchewan. Upper low starts to lift northeast and open, bringing rain chances mainly to the south of us, though can't rule out a few showers sneaking into our southern areas this evening. Later tonight, low moves over Manitoba as a cold front starts its push through our area, shifting increasing winds northwesterly.

On Thursday, cold front will continue its progression through our area in the morning, with winds increasing in its wake. Latest rounds of forecast soundings continue to support winds gusting to 45 mph. Can't rule out a stray shower with this system, mainly around the Turtle Mountains as the upper wave with this system drops southerly.

A cold night is then on tap for Thursday night as a surface high settles into the Northern Plains and cooler air continues to slide in. Lows in the 20s are possible, especially over western areas.

Cooler air does not reside over our area long an an upper ridge to the west builds towards our area. By Saturday, highs in the 70s are expected over various parts of our area. The start of the upcoming week is expected to remain dry with seasonably mild temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Over central into parts of northwest North Dakota, low clouds resulting in MVFR ceilings will linger into this morning before dissipating. Where skies have cleared, patchy fog has developed, especially over northwest North Dakota where visibility in a few spots has dipped to around 1/4 mile. This should improve around mid-morning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail later today. Late tonight, a cold front will move into the area, with winds turning northwest and becoming gusty in its wake.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.