textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continues across southern North Dakota through this evening with heat index values as high as 105 degrees.

- Heat Risk will be at least major, especially across southern North Dakota, Wednesday through Thursday. A slow but steady cooling trend is then favored this weekend into next week.

- Scattered thunderstorms could develop across northern North Dakota tonight. Severe weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms could produce small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Temperatures continue to trend down as the daylight heating subsides. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Ridge and thermal ridge will continue to linger across the region tonight through Wednesday and beyond. Dangerous heat will continue through this evening. Looking ahead Wednesday and Thursday, high temperatures remain in the 90s with some areas near 100 and some northern areas in the 80s. While lows look to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints look to come down some, providing afternoon humidity values in the 20s and 30s south to the 40s and 50s north. Thus apparent temperatures Wednesday and Thursday may be lower to around 100 degrees. Of concern are major to pockets of extreme remaining in the NWS Heat Risk maps. Some of this is likely due to the length of high heat, while part of it could be forecast air temperatures coming close to record highs in some areas. Looking at Wet Bulb Global Temperatures which is more designed for those participating in outdoor activities, areas of high to extreme look to remain Wednesday and especially Thursday. Thus decided to replace the Extreme Heat Warning with a Heat Advisory tonight through Thursday evening. Tonight into Wednesday morning, a weak surface boundary, which is already starting to show up on satellite, could bring showers and thunderstorms to northern portions. Overall the severe weather threat is low, although adequate cape and shear at thunderstorm initiation could bring some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. The shear vector looks to be right along the boundary which will overall limit the hail and wind threats. This could however bring some heavy rain with persistant thunderstorms. This is all reliant on storms developing in a capped environment with some dry air to overcome as well. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms may then linger across this boundary across the far north Wednesday, with the severe weather threat low. This boundary shifts more to the northeast on Thursday with the upper level ridge reestablishing itself over the CWA. Thus a mainly dry day is expected for Thursday. Weak surface low moving across the area Wednesday and Thursday could bring some breezy easterly winds becoming northerly winds at times. Green fuels should limit the fire weather threat, although breezy winds and low RH values may be found on Wednesday especially in the southwest.

Friday through the weekend...upper level ridge looks to remain to start then flatten later this weekend. Mainly dry conditions are expected until this flattening occurs when weak disturbances and possibly a weak cold front return chances for showers and thunderstorms. Right now this looks to occur sometime Saturday night through Sunday. CSU-MLP and SPC showing low threat of severe weather at this time. Above normal temperatures look to remain although low humidity values should limit the apparent temperatures. Slightly cooler temperatures and lower overnight temperatures in the 60s have also lowered the Heat Risk for this weekend. The Wet Bulb Global Temperature Index does still show some moderate to high levels through the weekend, which could still mean some impacts to those outdoors are possible. Behind the mentioned front could be some cooling temperatures next week. NBM temperature spreads showing near normal temperatures in the 50th percentile range. Breezy conditions could also start next week behind Sunday's front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR and clear conditions continue across the state for the next 24 hours. There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms along the International Border tonight which could impact KXWA and KMOT however the probabilities are low enough to not include in the 00Z TAFs. Amendments will be made if confidence increases in showers and thunderstorms. Winds will remain out of the east with afternoon gusts diminishing. Gusts are forecast to pick back up tomorrow morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050- 051-057>062. Heat Advisory from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033- 035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-057>062.