textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog is possible this afternoon, then becoming more widespread this evening.

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issue for this evening through Friday morning in western and portions of central North Dakota.

- Large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder) to southwest (warmer) through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Currently the low stratus deck across the forecast area remains in place with the little airflow in the middle of the surface low. Less dense patchy fog continues to linger in most counties from this morning, along with isolated snow flurries. Aloft northwest flow continues with the ridge axis over far western Montana.

This evening as temperatures slightly cool, dense fog is expected once again. The area with the highest confidence in the lowest visibilities is west of the Missouri River. The RAP and HRRR both have this, along with the mean RH values in the HREF model. Therefor a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the west and portions of the central from 00z this evening until 18z Friday. Winds overnight will stay relatively calm with near or 100 percent RH almost across all of central and western ND, so we also added mention of fog outside of the Advisory. The Advisory may need to be extended east later tonight if dense fog develops there too.

Through this weekend temperatures will be very diverse across western and central North Dakota. The northeast will stay in the single digits, where deeper snowpack is and under the colder air aloft. The southwest will stay in the 30s with the warmer air aloft and the ridge axis closing in. Friday night a slight wave in the northwest flow could produce some very light snow in the central, northern, and eastern parts of the state. The newest NBM data removed the QPF from the system so it may be just some snow flurries. Saturday night into Sunday the ridge axis is forecast to move into the state. The NBM temperature spread for Sunday has really decreased as the models are starting to agree on what the ridge axis will look like as it comes in. With this warmer air and the return of zonal flow, the first part of next week will be above average for highs, especially in the southwest where 50 degrees could be reached each day! Late next week there are hints at a system moving in but models are widely different on it happening or not.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Patchy dense fog and IFR CIGs is present across the area this afternoon and continue through the forecast period. This evening the fog will become more dense and widespread, causing LIFR conditions in the west, central, and south terminals. The fog should then lift some, Friday late morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021- 031>036-040>047-050.