textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible around the Turtle Mountains area later this evening into Wednesday morning.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are favored for most areas this week, with highs generally in the 30s and 40s.

- Temperatures may trend cooler next week with a more active weather pattern.

UPDATE

Issued at 859 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends have been blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

No significant changes are needed with this forecast update. The main adjustment was to better align the sky cover forecast with observed trends. Also refined the patchy fog forecast in northeast parts of our forecast area based on latest available visibility guidance. There have been some hints in CAMs that light precipitation (likely a freezing rain/snow mix) could develop with the warm frontal boundary that is moving across the north later this evening into tonight, but this is generally not supported by model soundings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

We are expecting a quiet weather pattern to continue through much of this week. Currently, a stationary boundary was situated from north central into southeast ND with a northwest surface flow east of this boundary. Southwest surface flow was indicated over western ND. The southwest flow will work it's way east as the aforementioned boundary pushes east as a warm front.

Early in the period, there is some mid level warm advection cloudiness associated with the warm front over southwest ND, and some lower level cloudiness over far northeast Montana and into far northwest ND. Low-mid level moisture moves east into eastern ND tonight. There may be some lower level stratus/fog around the Turtle Mountains later tonight into Wednesday morning. The RAP and HRRR are both indicating some low stratus/fog here late tonight through Wednesday morning. Will see how trends continue but for now will add some patchy fog around the Turtle Mountains late tonight through much of Wednesday morning.

The low stratus, if it pans out, may keep a lid on temperatures over the Turtle Mountains area Wednesday. Elsewhere temperatures in the 40s look reasonable, with some lower 50s possible in the southwest.

The rest of the work week and into the weekend looks quiet with above normal temperatures (normals range from around 20 degrees in the Turtle Mountains to around 30 degrees in the southwest) across the forecast area. The main westerlies remain well to the north and south of the forecast area, keeping a weak surface pressure pattern in place with a couple of weak impulses traversing the CWA. Currently the NBM is not depicting any qpf with these weak waves. Can't rule out an isolated sprinkle of flurry but see no reason to deviate from the dry forecast at this time.

As we get into the latter half of the weekend and moreso into the early to mid portion of next week, there is a definite downward trend in the NBM ensemble temperatures. However with this trend is a distinctive increase in the ensemble spread, so we will more than likely see a cooling trend, but the extent of the cooling trend is uncertain. All sites are showing a 10-15 degree spread in the NBM ensemble temperatures by the middle of next week. A cluster analysis indicates an upper level trough either over the far eastern Pacific or just coming onto the western U.S west coast. Over our neck of the woods at this time we would probably be dealing with low predictable transient waves in northwest flow, or leading low predictable waves in a developing southwest upper flow.

The NBM probability of a 24 hour snow total of at least a tenth of an inch of snow is medium to high for most of the forecast area (except the far south) for the middle of next week. When you start looking at more significant snow totals, the probabilities drop quite a bit. At this time the NBM is depicting a low (south) to medium (north) chance of a 48 hour snow total of 2 or more inches in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. We will have to monitor this as we get closer to next week. Until then, it looks to be a quiet and mild period through the rest of this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 859 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Low ceilings and fog are possible across parts of north central and eastern North Dakota later this evening into Wednesday morning. Categorical restrictions are not anticipated at KMOT or KJMS at this time. VFR conditions are otherwise expected across western and central North Dakota through the forecast period, along with light southwest to south winds.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.