textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with only a few hit and miss showers possible through the weekend.

- Near to above normal temperatures through the weekend, then cooler early to mid-week next week.

- Dry conditions combined with breezy to windy conditions could lead to near critical fire weather conditions this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Overall, a pretty quiet forecast to begin the month of May. Our main weather features will arise due to the battle between an Eastern North America trough and western ridge.

Currently, an upper level low is situated over southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. This feature has been in control of the weather across the forecast area for the past few days, keeping temperatures below normal. Today will be the beginning of a warm-up that will continue through the weekend as western Canada and northwest U.S. ridging pushes into the Northern Plains. This morning, a weak impulse dropping through the area may bring a period of mid-level clouds with maybe a few sprinkles. Otherwise look for partly to mostly sunny skies with highs from the mid 50s east to upper 60s far west. With dry air situated over the region, we will see afternoon dew points drop into the upper teens to mid 20s over most of western and north central ND, and just a bit higher (mid 20s to mid 30s) over the south central and James River Valley up to the Turtle Mountains. With surface high pressure over the state today, winds are expected to remain light. Cool once again tonight, but not as cool as we have been the past few nights. Most will remains above freezing, but a few areas will likely drop a little below freezing.

The weekend will bring mainly dry conditions with mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A cold front drops through the area on Saturday, and could bring a sprinkle or brief shower, but for the most part it will be a dry cold front. There is a little bit of elevated instability over central ND, but with probably enough warm and dry air below to inhibit convection. If we were to get a thunderstorm, we could see some gusty winds with little in the way of precipitation. Warmest temperatures will be in the southwest/south central on Saturday, and cooler north. It will be breezy on Saturday and with the dry conditions, we could see some near critical fire weather conditions. Currently, the lowest humidities are expected to be across the south, with sustained winds 10 to 20 mph across the forecast area. With the lower humidities south, this would be the favored area for near critical fire weather conditions if the current forecast holds.

Sunday will bring another mild and breezy day with near critical fire weather conditions possible once again. As we're getting a little farther out, will have to see how conditions change as we get closer, but currently the strongest winds and lowest humidities are forecast over northwest North Dakota.

Sunday night into Monday a cold front swings through the forecast area, brining cooler temperatures to the region as the eastern North America trough becomes established back a little farther west. The cool conditions are expected to linger through mid-week, before the western Ridge pushes back into the Northern Plains bringing warmer temperatures. The week will be dominated by a northwest upper flow meaning occasional waves tracking through the area bringing low precipitation chances.

We will need to monitor fire weather conditions behind the cold front Monday. Although it will be a bit cooler with higher afternoon humidities, it may be windy enough behind the front (sustained 20 to 30 mph) to produce near critical fire weather conditions if we see humidities drop down to 25 to 30 percent. Currently, the west central to south central portion of the state is seeing forecast humidities down to around 30 percent, so we may be close.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. An area of mid clouds is forecast to drop south through western and central North Dakota late tonight through Friday morning. A few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible with these clouds, with no impacts to aviation expected. Light and variable winds through tonight will then become northwest to north around 5-10 kts Friday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.