textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds with isolated flurries tonight into Wednesday morning. Some patchy fog and light freezing drizzle are also possible.

- Near to above normal temperatures favored mid to late week. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the upper 30s northeast to lower 60s far southwest.

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Low status lingers across much of western and central North Dakota at the time of this mid night update. Isolated reports of light precpitation have continue, though the ongoing cooling of the column across the forecast area has resulted in flurries being favored over the previous reports of freezing drizzle. Isolated flurries are expected to continue overnight, mainly east of Highway 85. Otherwise, patchy to areas of fog are also expected to develop across portions of the west and central overnight, especially as gusty north to northwest winds continue to diminish through Wednesday morning. No major adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time, as it broadly remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

The near-term forecast appears to be trending well. Widespread low stratus continues to surge southward, covering all but the southwest corner of the state. Occasional reports of flurries and light freezing drizzle persist under the low clouds, mainly across parts of north central North Dakota. Isolated flurries may continue through tonight, but think the potential for light freezing drizzle will end soon as both the depth and minimum temperatures of the near-surface saturated layer decrease.

UPDATE Issued at 826 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A mention of patchy light freezing drizzle has been added to the forecast through the remainder of the evening for areas from around Kenmare to Garrison. Recent automated observations near Stanley and Max have reported freezing drizzle, and webcam imagery within the last hour near Carpio in northwest Ward County also indicated liquid precipitation. We still do not anticipate any significant impacts, but some untreated surfaces could become slick. Another adjustment for this update was to increase winds through the evening, which have been gusting to around 30 mph behind the frontal passage.

UPDATE Issued at 714 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Satellite and radar continue to indicate a mid level shortwave producing light precipitation above a low level dry layer over central North Dakota. Have seen some evidence of precipitation reaching the ground as very light rain or snow. There have also been some flurries observed within the trailing low stratus across northern parts of the state. Overall, we continue to anticipate unimpactful weather through tonight. One thing to monitor will be potential fog development along the western edge of the stratus later tonight into Wednesday morning. Recent visibility guidance has trended towards a foggier solution along and west of Highway 52 in northwest North Dakota, which is known to be a favorable area for fog formation. Still low confidence in how dense this fog could be, but there is a surface ridge forecast to pass through the west later tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A weak frontal boundary will drop south through the forecast areas late this afternoon through this evening. This might bring a small chance for some light mixed precipitation. In general the CAMS and ensemble NBM guidance are not depicting much in the way of precipitation with this feature, but there is some guidance that does produce very light qpf, and to maintain consistency, will keep some low pops in the forecast. Light returns already showing up over northwest and far north central ND, however current ceilings are around 10kft or higher so doubt much if anything is reaching the ground. Think ceilings will lower later this afternoon and this evening with slightly better probabilities for some light precipitation, ranging from light rain or sprinkles southwest to light snow or possibly light freezing drizzle over central ND. Bufkit soundings also indicate a saturated lower atmosphere behind the frontal system. Latest satellite loop shows low stratus dropping south through Saskatchewan, heading toward North Dakota. Much of ND is already covered in stratus so this just a reassurance that we remain cloudy. The west though did see some sun this afternoon, but think much of the west will once again become covered in low stratus tonight.

Late tonight and into Wednesday morning, we added a mention of flurries. We could also see some patchy freezing drizzle, but there were a couple of limiting factors. The depth of the saturated layer is pretty shallow this evening, but does increase to around 1km by around midnight. There is a nice dry layer above the saturated layer, which is favorable but the 1km depth doesn't last too long before dropping a bit. there is a steep lapse rate with some weak instability at the top of the saturated layer which local knowledge suggests that flurries would be favored. It's not that we can't have fzdz so will pass this along to the evening shift for further evaluation. There is also a pretty good gradient behind the front, which lingers into the overnight hours and omega in the saturated layer is weak, which would limit the fzdz potential. In addition, fzdz in a northwest flow regime is usually low impact. Areas of fog are also possible within the stratus tonight, but with the winds, it doesn't appear to be as likely, and if it does develop, not as dense as it was this morning. Will add some patchy fog to northwest ND for now as this is the areas most cams seem to favor. Stratus is expected to lift/clear from west to east Wednesday. Eastern portions of central ND may see clouds through much of the day while the far west should be the first to clear, hopefully by mid to late morning. The clearing, brought on by a warm front will bring the beginning of a significant warm-up through Thursday. Highs on Thursday may approach or exceed 60 degrees in the far southwest, with upper 30s forecast for the Turtle Mountains area.

A cold front will knock our temperatures back into the teens in the Turtle Mountains area to upper 40s southwest on Friday, but we then climb gradually through the weekend into early next week. There is a rather large spread in the NBM ensemble temperatures during this timeframe so confidence isn't great, but even the 25th percentile NBM ensemble temperatures are above normal. Once we clear out on Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday and through the remainder of the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected across all of western and central North Dakota tonight through late Wednesday morning, with LIFR ceilings possible in the western half of the state. Isolated flurries are possible under the low clouds, but are unlikely to cause any categorical visibility restrictions. Patchy light freezing drizzle is also possible late this evening, mainly from between KXWA and KMOT to between KMOT and KBIS. Areas of freezing fog/mist could also develop later tonight into Wednesday morning, with the highest probabilities in northwest North Dakota. Otherwise, a developing LLJ across western and central North Dakota late Wednesday afternoon will induce low level wind shear at all terminals by the end of the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds this evening should taper off overnight. Winds will then turn southwesterly by Wednesday afternoon and increase to around 10-15 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.