textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across far southwest portions this afternoon.

- Very warm temperatures across the southwest today with highs into the mid 80s. Not as warm elsewhere, but still mild. - Cooler, but still seasonable to mild Tuesday through Saturday with highs ranging from the 60s northeast to the 70s southwest.

- Breezy at times Monday into Tuesday and then again Friday into Saturday.

- Possibly much cooler Sunday with low to medium chances for rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 937 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A couple of minor tweaks to sky cover. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Limited updates needed at this time. Cloud cover has not been as abundant as some models forecast along the elevated warm front, although there are some mid clouds in the southeast. Made some sky adjustments as a result. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Exiting ridge of high pressure will be replaced by a weak trough and surface low today. A warm front will lift through to begin the day and bring warm temperatures and breezy southerly winds. Some hi-res models try to develop a few showers this morning as this warm front lifts through. Weak instability could even hint at a few isolated thunderstorms possible. However, a surge of dry air will make the chances for any shower or thunderstorm activity low today thus kept a mainly dry forecast. This dry air is expected to lower afternoon RH values into the teens and 20s across the southwest. Southerly winds shifting to a breezy westerly wind could bring some near critical fire weather concerns in this area. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. High temperatures today will continue to be above normal and warm into the 70s for most areas with some 80s in the southwest. As the trough and weak cold front moves through a shift to westerly winds will be found from west to east later today through tonight. The rest of tonight then looks mostly clear to partly cloudy with dry conditions. Mild lows in the 40s to lower 50s look to continue for tonight. A more subtle yet still post frontal day is then in store for Tuesday. Temperatures will cool slightly yet still remain above normal and generally in the upper 60s to upper 70s. There could be some breezy northwest winds at times, although winds overall do not look as breezy as today. With this dry pattern, low RH values in the 20s will again be found across the southwest. This could provide for a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions across the southwest, depending how strong the winds become. Surface high with northwest flow aloft is then expected for Tuesday night. Cooler lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s are forecast, with low temperatures somewhat dependent on how much cloud cover is found within the northwest flow aloft. Dry conditions will remain in place Tuesday night, limiting any fog threat.

A broad surface high then looks to remain across the state Wednesday and Thursday, with northwest flow aloft. Overall this will result in mainly dry conditions, with light winds, and continued mild temperatures. Some cooler temperatures may be found each morning depending on cloud cover, with forecast lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Another broad area of low pressure could then return later in the week into the start of the weekend. Right now the forecast would indicate North Dakota is in the warm and mainly dry sector of this low. The result could be continued above normal temperatures, mainly dry conditions, and breezy winds at times.

Attention then turns to later in the weekend into early next week. Clusters still indicating the next broad trough pattern moving into the region. There is medium to high confidence this pattern shift brings cooler temperatures which is also indicated in the NBM temperature spreads overall going on a lowering trend although do have large spreads at times. This could bring the next widespread chance for freeze conditions especially early next week. The larger uncertainty is precipitation chances. NBM keeps in low to moderate chances Sunday into early next week. Clusters differ with some showing a broad trough pattern moving through, others showing more of a cut off low setting up to the west, while a few split the difference and indicate more of a split flow pattern is possible. Thus will maintain the low to medium chances for precipitation until more confidence can be achieved. Some deterministic models showing snow is possible with these precipitation chances. This will be highly dependent on how much cold air can enter into the area, and confidence in any accumulations this far out is low. This potentially more active pattern could also bring some breezy winds at times, although increasing RH values should limit any fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with some mid to high clouds at times. Winds will become south southeast today and could be breezy by this afternoon. A shift to westerly winds will then be found from west to east later today through tonight. Brief LLWS could transition from west to east ahead of a front this morning. Confidence was not high enough to include this LLWS at this time

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions remain possible for southwestern North Dakota this afternoon. A warm front will lift across the state today, bringing above normal temperatures to the area, with some 80s in the southwest. This combined with a surge of dry air could bring afternoon humidity values in the teens and 20s. While these humidity values lower, a weak cold front could enter into the west shifting winds to the west, and could be breezy at times. This shifting westerly winds combined with low humidity values could bring some near critical fire weather conditions to the southwest this afternoon. There may also be a brief period early this afternoon where stronger low level winds aloft align with steep low level lapse rates, which could further increase the fire weather concerns. Overall, confidence is fairly high in lower humidity values today, yet only modest on having critical wind speeds. Thus will hold off on a fire highlight for now. Elsewhere, humidity values should remain above 30 percent. A breezy southerly wind will be found today, although humidity values in these breezier locations should be above 40 percent. Winds will become westerly across the remainder of the area tonight, while dry conditions keep poor to modest humidity recoveries.

Tuesday will bring another day with low afternoon humidities around 20 percent over far southwest North Dakota. Some breezy northwest winds could linger, and perhaps bring another day of near critical fire weather conditions across the southwest. There still remains some uncertainty on the strength of these winds. In addition slightly cooler temperatures may be found on Tuesday. Will continue to monitor but for now we will hold off on mentioning near critical conditions in the far southwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.