textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday along, south and west of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River. A Fire Weather Watch remain in effect for southwest and portions of northwest North Dakota.

- Near to a bit below average temperatures today, a notable but brief warm up for Thursday, with much cooler temperatures expected by the weekend.

- More widespread precipitation returns late in the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current surface analysis places low over Northwestern Ontario, with high over the Northern Rockies nudging into the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places low over northwest Ontario, with ridge over the northwestern CONUS. Notable short wave to the southwest of the low now passing over Manitoba into the Dakotas continues to produce some showers and a few thunderstorms over central and eastern North Dakota which are moving quickly off to the east.

For today, a cooler airmass settling in behind yesterday's system will bring near to a bit below average temperatures to the area, while upper ridge to the west should keep conditions dry.

On Thursday, upper trough digging into British Columbia pushes southeastward, with upper ridge pushing over into our area. Temperatures will be notably warmer, with highs in the 80s over most locations, and dry conditions continuing.

A cold front pushes through late Thursday night into early Friday, resulting in increasing northwesterly winds in its wake. With the easterly pushing upper trough, a few showers may develop, primarily over northern locations.

Notably cooler temperatures are then expected this weekend into early next week. Quiet weather is expected through the day on Saturday, before a Pacific low quickly moves onshore and pushes towards the Rockies, while a surface low develops to the lee of the Rockies and gradually meanders easterly. Exact placement of some of these features remains uncertain, but this general pattern does result in elevated precipitation chances over our area for the second half of the weekend into the start of the upcoming work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered to numerous showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will move through northwest and north central North Dakota early this morning, with localized MVFR ceilings and possible MVFR visibility. A secondary area of showers will move through southwest and south central North Dakota, but ceilings with this area of precipitation are expected to remain VFR, with occasional minimal visibility reduction. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening for southwest and west central ND. Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast across much of the remainder of western and central ND during this time. Humidity values will dip into the lower teens to lower 20s south and west of the Missouri River, while southwest winds increase to around 15 to 25 mph. Due to the low humidity and breezy conditions, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for southwest and west central North Dakota. Areas north and east of the Missouri River will see similar winds with humidity values dipping into the mid 20s to mid 30s, except mid 40s around the Turtle Mountains.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.