textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds diminish from west to east tonight.

- Snow ending north central early this evening, but periods of blowing and drifting snow linger through the evening. - Snow develops over much of the area Saturday into early Sunday. Greatest chances for impacts due to snow remain along and south of Interstate 94.

UPDATE

Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

No changes to headlines with this product update, with winds still gusty over my east. All other forecast elements for tonight remain on track.

UPDATE Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The very tail end of the wrap around moisture is tracking through the James River Valley attim. Brief period of light snow in Jamestown last hour and also a gust to 61 mph. Winds in the west through have diminished greatly and have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the west. Still some strong gusts in central ND, so will continue the remaining two segments. The south central segment that includes the Highway 83 corridor may be able to be cancelled before midnight. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The Red Flag Warning for much of western ND has been cancelled. Winds continue to diminish over western ND this evening. Humidities in western ND have climbed well over 50 percent as the colder air has pushed through all of western ND.

Elsewhere, has rapidly diminished over north central ND and into the Turtle Mountains. Little if any additional accumulations are expected but with the strong winds and the snow that fell earlier, visibilities remain reduced in blowing and drifting snow. Will send out an updated Advisory shortly, keeping it going due to the strong winds.

UPDATE Issued at 547 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Surface low pressure is situated near Harvey ND and continues to track ESE. Some convection has developed along the I-94 corridor between Bismarck and Jamestown. The stronger storms could produce some very gusty winds. Winds have finally picked up over south central ND with a gust to 70 mph at the Bismarck Airport this past hour. Very strong winds continue in the southwest, but have backed off a bit from the crazy high winds earlier today. In the north central, a band of moderate to heavy snow is wrapping around the surface low as it pushes off to the east. This band dropped a quick 3 inches of snow at the Minot AFB in past 2 hours or so. This band is moving pretty quick so the heavy snow is expected to end over the AFB pretty quickly, and over Ward county in general in the next hour or so.

We made some changes late this afternoon. We ended the HWW in the northwest and north central, replacing the HWW with a Winter Weather Advisory in the north central. In the northwest where snow has ended or will shortly, we issued a SPS to cover this and the icy roads due to temperatures dropping below freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Current surface analysis places center of deep low between Minot and Harvey. Tight pressure gradient with this low is resulting in some very strong winds, particularly behind the surface trough which is nearing the Highway 83 corridor. Strongest winds with gusts in the 80s have occurred along this trough over southwest North Dakota, with gusts to 70 elsewhere behind the trough. Winds continue to be enhanced by scattered showers over the area, with enough instability in place for thunderstorm development, most notably in the vicinity of the aforementioned trough. One has developed near and north of Bismarck, of which a severe warning has been issued. Temperatures have warmed up southwest into west central North Dakota well into the 40s and lower 50s, while behind the cold front to the west of the low, temperatures remain in the 30s.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight surface low will continue setting to the east-southeast, with strong winds continuing into this evening before tapering off. Per latest forecast soundings, greatest threat for 80 mph winds remains over southwest North Dakota, notably with a secondary surge of pressure rises with the cold front dropping down. Gusts to 70 remain the key threat elsewhere that High Wind Warnings are in effect. With that said, still expect winds to drop off through the evening from west to east as pressure rises quickly diminish with the fast moving system. With respect to thunderstorms, enough instability remains in place for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Given the strong winds right off the surface, any storm (or shower for that matter) will have to be closely monitored for enhanced wind gusts given the ease of the strong winds mixing down.

As for snow, expect periods of snow to continue over north central North Dakota, with some additional light snow possibly wrapping in behind the low as it moves on its way. With respect to north central North Dakota, particularly around the Turtle Mountains where Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect, will have to keep a close eye on blowing snow and visibility once winds start to really increase over that area. For now have kept advisory in place with mention of possible near-blizzard, but if snow starts moving more than anticipated this evening, blizzard headlines will need consideration.

As we go into Friday this system will continue on its way out of the area, but additional low to medium snow chances develop mainly over western and southern locations behind surface high that drops through eastern portions of the state. These chances linger ahead of the next system approaching Saturday.

On Saturday an upper trough approaches and pushes through the region and a surface low slides through the central plains. Impactful weather remains a concern, particularly along and south of Interstate 94. NBM guidance has been quite consistent with this, continuing to show a 50 to 75 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow for this area, and a 40 to 60 percent chance of 6 inches or more. High pressure to the north limits the northern extent of the snow, with northern parts of our area possibly seeing little to no snowfall. Snow departs on Sunday, with quite cold temperatures expected.

Notable warming trend is then on tap going through the work week, with some low to medium chances for precipitation Monday into Tuesday with the warmer air pushing in. Although NBM guidance continues to show a spread in high temperatures for a few of the days, the trend is sharply warmer.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility, with some LIFR ceilings and visibility north central and into eastern ND tonight. Areas of mainly MVFR to low VFR ceilings are expected over western and central ND tonight, but improving towards 12Z with a mid level cloud deck in place. Winds diminish over central and eastern ND this morning, shifting to the southeast from west to east during the day Friday. Next round of winter weather enters southwest North Dakota this morning, then slowly expands east into south central ND during the day. MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and visibility in falling snow forecast for southwest and possibly south central terminals.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NDZ004- 005-012-013. High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for NDZ022- 023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.