textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and windy this weekend, along with a few rain showers.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions south and west of the Missouri River today and especially Sunday.

- Near to above normal temperatures with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Low level clouds starting to diminish in the east along with the patchy fog associated with these clouds. Some mid level clouds are also moving through central portions. Overall the forecast remains on track this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 414 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Lingering low clouds and patchy fog may be found across eastern portions this morning. Increased westerly flow will then bring warming temperatures and partly cloudy skies today. Look for high temperatures in the 40s and 50s for most areas. Near advisory westerly winds may also be found today. Strong winds aloft skirt the north this afternoon and evening, although falling pressures and warm air advection may limit how much of this wind can mix down today. For now held off on any wind products. A weak clipper in the westerly flow aloft could also bring a few rain showers this afternoon and evening, although dry air at the surface looks to limit this potential. Warm and windy conditions could bring some near-critical fire weather conditions to far southwestern portions today. These areas see RH values lower to near 30 percent this afternoon. Fuels and how long these conditions last today remain uncertain. Thus for now will message near critical fire weather conditions possible. Breezy westerly winds and mild temperatures in the 30s then look to be found tonight. Another weak wave could bring at least slight chances for rain and snow tonight, although dry air near the surface will once again limit this precipitation threat.

Warmer and windier conditions are then forecast for Sunday. How warm is still dependent on passage of a cold front forecast later in the day. With strong westerly winds expected, blended in some NBM50th/NBM90th to the temperature forecast. This bring highs in the 60s for much of southern North Dakota, which could be record highs for some locations. ECMWF EFI values still remain elevated for winds on Sunday. Winds aloft look strong, although the best pressure rises are not till after passage of the cold front. Warm air advection may again be found during the day Sunday. However, given stronger winds aloft and better mixing, advisory level winds are forecast for Sunday and will have to be monitored for a potential wind highlight. With these warm temperatures, dryer conditions, and strong winds will come the potential for near- critical to critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon into the early evening. Areas south and west of the Missouri River are still the more concerning areas given lower RH values expected. Timing of the front and fuel status still remain the biggest uncertainties to critical fire weather conditions in these areas. Just looking at 100 hour fuel moisture, there appears to be dry conditions in the southwest yet just short of abnormally dry for this time of year. This could change with windy and warm conditions today further drying out fuels, although remains an area of uncertainty. Thus will hold off on any fire weather highlights at this time, but will need to be monitored closely. Will still message near- critical fire weather conditions for areas south and west of the Missouri River for Sunday. The mentioned cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night, shifting winds to the northwest. Light rain or snow may also be found along this front Sunday night, with low temperatures generally in the 20s.

Front stalls near the SD/ND border Monday and Tuesday, with a surface low moving along this boundary. The result could be widespread light snow to start the week, with perhaps some light to modest accumulations along this boundary in the southern half of the state. Snow accumulations will be dependent on if any banded snow can develop. NBM still showing a 20 to 50% chance for over an inch of snow with this system, with the chances for over 4 inches up to 20%. Cooler temperatures will also be found to start the week, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s, and lows in the mid teens to mid 20s. Other than a brief warm up forecast for Thursday, near normal temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week. Broad trough pattern could return later in the work week as well perhaps returning chance for snow. Clusters split 50/50 on how far north accumulating snow will be found from the initial return to this trough pattern with some more into Canada versus northern North Dakota. Half of the clusters also showing the trough pattern lingering through next weekend, perhaps continuing chances for snow and cooler temperatures. Temperatures spreads from the NBM also showing a cooler more near normal temperatures for the next weekend as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

IFR ceilings across eastern portions, along with some patchy fog, will diminish this morning. All sites are then expected to see VFR conditions today, with windy westerly winds. Breezy winds with some mid level clouds are then expected this evening through tonight. There is a slight chance for rain showers later today through tonight, although confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Areas of low level wind shear are also forecast this evening into tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.