textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder with high chances for rain late tonight through Monday. Snow could briefly mix with rain in northwest North Dakota late Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Below freezing temperatures possible north Sunday and Monday night.

- Low to medium chances for rain return Wednesday through Thursday, with seasonable temperatures of highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Thursday could be windy.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Cold front will continue to progress across the state this evening. This will switch winds northerly and bring in cooler temperatures. Some showers remain possible across the north and west through the night, although large dewpoint spreads, at least initially, will make shower activity limited. Overall the forecast remains on track with little needed updates at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As of this writing, a surface cold front/trough was located over central North Dakota and will continue pushing east through the day. Mean southwest flow aloft will keep mid to high clouds streaming in through the day with precipitation chances and lower clouds increasing tonight into Sunday. A couple of strung out shortwaves will eject from a western CONUS trough which will serve as the main focus for rain chances tonight through Monday. For now, it appears that rainfall will be more of the hit or miss variety tonight and much of Sunday with more widespread high chances arriving late Sunday through Monday. That being said, the northwest should see high chances of rain throughout the aforementioned period and this is the area that the NBM is favoring for the highest totals. NBM 48-hour probabilities suggest a 70 to 90 percent chance for at least a half inch of rain across most of the northwest and north central through Monday with the probabilities of an inch or greater maxed out in the 30 to 50 percent range. The best chances will generally be northwest.

The cold front will also usher in the coldest temperatures of the year thus far, but maybe not quite as cold as the guidance suggested in previous days. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 40s northwest to the low/mid 60s far southeast. Sunday night's lows will dip into the low to mid 30s northwest and north central, to the lower 40s south central and southeast. A few readings at or just below freezing will be possible northwest and north central. That being said, overcast conditions may keep temperatures from dipping too low. Given these temperatures Sunday night, some light snow could mix in with the rain across the northwest into Monday morning but accumulations are not expected. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid/upper 50s far southeast. Monday night could be a little colder than Sunday night but widespread cloud cover will work to keep lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s. More readings at or below freezing area possible again north, but clouds may keep the need for freeze headlines at bay.

Early to midweek, an upper low will cutoff over the southwest CONUS and model agreement breaks down mid to late week given the low predictability pattern. One solution keeps the low cutoff through the rest of the work week and one solution has the low being ingested back into the northern stream. If the latter solution were to verify, we will see better chances for rain mid to late week as the southern/northern streams phase over Minnesota. However, if the low remains cutoff, split flow will dominate and upper ridging will likely suppress precipitation chances across the region. As of now, cluster analysis would suggest a ~30 percent chance for continued split flow (drier solution) and maybe a ~70 percent chance for the phased solution (wetter). Even if the wetter solution were to verify, it appears that impacts would be minimal at this time. Hopefully models start to come into better agreement over the next few days. Temperatures may warm slightly mid to late week with highs mainly in the 50s (possibly some lower 60s).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will begin the forecast, with periods of MVFR to perhaps IFR conditions expected Sunday. A cold front will push across the state tonight, shifting winds to the north. A few showers are possible, with PROB30 groups introduced to most western and northern sites. Showers become more widespread on Sunday, with ceilings forecast at MVFR to IFR heights. A breezy north northeast wind is also expected to prevail on Sunday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.