textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southerly winds Tuesday with rain and snow developing Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. Gusty winds then become northwesterly on Wednesday, with light rain and snow likely lingering through the day.

- Western ND will see highs in the low 50s to low 60s on Tuesday, otherwise below average temperatures are expected across the state through Thursday. Warmer temperatures are then expected Friday through the weekend.

- Widespread 20 to 40 percent rain chances are currently forecast later this weekend and into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

No significant changes for the early evening update. Generally light winds over central ND this evening and increasing southeast winds over western ND. Southeast winds increase across the area late this evening and overnight and continue through the day Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Northwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains this afternoon as a modified arctic air mass lingers across the region. As a result, seasonable cool highs in the upper 20s east to lower 40s west is expected this afternoon. With a decent pressure gradient developing between the resulting high pressure over eastern North Dakota, and surface low pressure over Montana/Wyoming way, breezy south to southeast winds are expected to begin developing across western and portions of south central overnight into Tuesday morning, with sustained speeds up to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH through this period. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the low to mid teens in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains area, up to the lower to mid 20s west.

Flow aloft is expected to turn near zonal Tuesday ahead of a northern Pacific low makes landfall and begins to move across the southern Canadian Prairies. Southerly winds are forecast to continue strengthening throughout the day a modest low level up develops across the area. While southerly winds aren't traditionally our strongest during the spring time, model lapse rates are advertising to climb up to 8.5 to 9.0 c/km, which could allow winds to peak with sustained speeds up to 25 MPH and gusts up to around 35-40 MPH to mix down from a developing low level jet. The best potential for these strongest winds is found across portions the northwest and much of north central North Dakota, including the northern James River Valley. With enhancement along the coteau, parts of this area may brief see winds peak above 25 MPH during the afternoon, though uncertainty remains regarding the duration and areal extent of such. Otherwise, with the zonal flow aloft and southerly winds at the surface, highs across the west are expected to become near to slightly above normal for this time of year, from the lower 50s to lower 60s, while central North Dakota is anticipated to remain below normals in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a clipper system associated with the aforementioned Pacific low is progged to cut along the International Border promoting medium to high chances (55 to 85 percent) for precpitation across much of western and central North Dakota, accompanied by gusty northwest winds as a moderate to strong mid level jet develops along the low's southern extent. With much of the forecast area falling under the clipper systems warm sector Tuesday night through Wednesday morning much of this precpitation is expected to fall as rain, before transitioning to a mix of rain and snow or all snow in the late morning and afternoon as the attendant cold front moves in from the northwest. There is strong agreement between ensemble members that the bulk of precpitation will fall along or to the north of the International Border, helping to limit overall snowfall accumulations to a few tenths of an inch, with maybe up to a half inch or so in the Turtle Mountains. Otherwise, with the increased CAA along and behind the cold front allowing for the mid level jet to partially mix down to the surface, gusty northwest winds with sustained speeds up to 30 to 35 MPH and isolated gusts up to 45 MPH are possible. The greatest uncertainty in the ensemble remains the location of these strongest winds. A slight majority of model members (approximately 60 percent) favors a slightly more northerly track of the upper level low, which would allow the core of the mid level jet to remain draped across much of southwestern and south central North Dakota and thus promote the strongest winds for our area. In this scenario, isolated stronger gusts exceeding 50 MPH is not out of the question, especially in the southwest. A minority cluster also exists (40 percent of members) that instead advertises a slightly more southerly low track, which would push the core of mid level jet more into the northern South Dakota and thus could help limit the peak winds gusts for our area. As of the forecast cycle, the EFI paints a value of 0.9 with a shift of tails across much of the west and central, which reflects the potential for strong winds during this period. We will continue to monitor forecast trends regarding these winds over the next few forecast cycles. Otherwise, with the passage of this clipper system, slightly cooler highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s are expected Wednesday afternoon.

Behind this clipper system, a transient shortwave ejecting off the Pacific Low will promote low (10 to 30 percent) chances for light snowfall across portions of the far southwest and south central Thursday afternoon, with little to no accumulation expected at this time. Highs on Thursday remain cool, again broadly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Beyond Thursday, mostly dry and warming conditions are expected as flow aloft turns northwesterly to near zonal ahead of transient ridge building across the western CONUS. With the ridge progged to be displaced over the Great Plains this weekend, highs by Saturday and Sunday are forecast to climb into the 60s and lower 70s. By the late weekend into early next week, flow aloft is expected to turn southwesterly as a deep pacific trough develops over the western CONUS. With this pattern chances for precpitation and slightly cooler temperatures can be anticipated, though details remain uncertain as the ensemble family members become increasingly discordant about timing and location of potential waves. As it stands, the NBM advertises low to medium (20 to 40 percent) chances for precpitation across most of North Dakota, with rain being favored with the near to slightly above normal temperatures during this period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. However, as strong low level warm advection begins working west to east across the forecast area, models do show a narrow ribbon of lower RH which could manifest itself as some scattered to possibly a brief broken layer of MVFR clouds as it tracks east across the forecast area. Highest probabilities will be in the far southwest early this evening, then setting up later in the day Tuesday over the James river Valley. Southeast winds increase in the west this evening, with light north to northeast winds central turning southeast. Strong southeast winds across the area late tonight and through the day Tuesday. Sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph possible Tuesday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.