textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwesterly winds today.

- Line of rain exiting the forecast area by mid-morning. Wrap around snow showers today, possibly mixing with rain in the afternoon.

- Below average temperatures across the state through Thursday. Seasonable temperatures Friday then above average temperatures this weekend.

- Widespread 30 to 50 percent precipitation chances later this weekend and into early next week. Initially as rain, possibly with a few thunderstorms on Sunday, then potentially changing to snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Extended PoPs in the southern James River Valley of ND for another couple hours. Otherwise, wraparound snow has also been observed in the far northwest (Crosby), which is in line with expectations. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Occluded frontal boundary off southern Canadian surface low, and associated line of rain showers, continues passing from west to east across the forecast area early this morning. The boundary is essentially north to south and is approaching Highway 281. Behind the frontal boundary will be a moderate CAA push this morning and into the afternoon, which will create gusty northwesterly winds. However, this CAA push doesn't align well with modest pressure rises, and is progged to exit the forecast area by mid-afternoon. As such, the NBM may be a little overdone in regard to winds. Nevertheless, still expect the vast majority of the forecast area will reach Wind Advisory criteria for a time, with gusts up to 55 mph. There is also a greater than zero chance that an isolated 60 mph gust will occur. Therefore, the ongoing Wind Advisory looks good as of now. Winds will rapidly diminish from west to east late this afternoon and evening.

As the surface low tracks across southern Manitoba today and into southwestern Ontario, wrap around precipitation is likely for parts of the area. Initially in the northwest as light snow this morning and then in the central as snow, possibly mixing with rain, this afternoon. While a dusting isn't entirely out of the question mainly north of Highway 2, overall, little rain or snow accumulations are expected with any wraparound moisture.

The NBM maintains 20 to 40 percent chances of light snow mainly south of I94 through the day Thursday as a weak shortwave passes through the Northern Plains. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions through Saturday. Starting Saturday night, but especially Sunday into Monday, precipitation chances begin to increase. Initially precipitation should be in the form of rain, possibly with a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, after which snow may begin to mix into the north Monday before mostly or fully transitioning to snow Monday night. Of note, the current NBM solution is a bit warmer than yesterday, which maintains rain longer. And more importantly, due to averaging out the timing of different model members, the NBM seems to be overdoing the duration of any precipitation at any particular location.

Highs today should range from the mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast, while Thursday is forecast to range from the upper 30s southeast to upper 40s west. A warming trend is then on tap through the weekend. While the NBM 25th/75th percentile spreads have narrowed to some degree, the current NBM forecast is under the 25th percentile at Bismarck on Sunday, with the 75th currently at 83 degrees. Beyond Sunday, expect a significant cooling trend to start next week. Lows tonight and Thursday night will be mostly in the 20s before also trending warmer this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Low pressure passing eastward across southern Saskatchewan, through southern Manitoba, and into southwestern Ontario will bring gusty northwesterly winds and wrap around snow showers today. The highest probability for snow showers, which will likely bring MVFR ceilings, is in the north this morning, with a rain and snow mix possible mainly in the north central this afternoon. Sustained winds of around 30 kts with gusts up to 45 kts are expected across all of western through central ND, including the James River Valley, later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Winds will then rapidly diminish this evening and overnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.