textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures through the rest of the week over most locations. Possible record setting, especially over western and southern locations.

- Dry through remainder of work week, with precipitation chances returning Saturday/Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 442 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across southwestern North Dakota through the late afternoon. For tonight, the ongoing melting of snowpack lingering across the north central into eastern North Dakota and lighter winds could allow for another round of patchy fog to develop tonight into Thursday morning.

Similar conditions are expected to persist Friday and Saturday as broad ridging persists across the Northern Plains, with highs into the 60s and 70s and gusty west to northwest winds in the afternoon. The winds are expected to become more widespread on Saturday, as a cold front is progged to dip south across the region some time during the day. Ensemble members remain a little split on the timing of the front, though notably less so than the previous forecast cycles. A slower moving front is currently favored by a majority of ensemble members (60% of them), which will allow for highs across the north to remain broadly in the 50s and 60s through Saturday afternoon. The slower solution would also delay the onset of lighter precipitation (20 to 40 percent chance) on Saturday to the afternoon and evening, which would favor a rain-snow mix across the north. This scenario is reflected in the NBM. A minority cluster also exists (approximately 40 percent of the ensemble members), which still champions a faster moving front, corresponding to a scenario that would promote cooler highs in the 30s and 40s across the north. The cooler temperatures in that scenario, and the early onset of precipitation, would allow more snowfall across the north in that case. Overall the precipitation amounts should be light, with only a light dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow (highest in the Turtle Mountains) anticipated at this time.

Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are expected on Sunday on the back side of the cold front, with highs from the lower 30s north central to the upper 40s in the southwest. A return to southwesterly flow aloft late Sunday through early next week will return the forecast to a dry and warming pattern. The degree of warming is still a little uncertain as the ensembles struggle to resolve the breakdown of the ridge ahead of a decent wave moving in later in the week. With this wave, chances for precipitation and gusty winds are anticipated, though the location and degree of either remain uncertain this far ahead of time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR ceilings are currently forecast throughout the TAF period. However, there is a medium chance for MVFR to IFR ceilings at KMOT and KJMS between 06Z - 18Z Friday, along with a low chance for ceilings to dip into the LIFR category. The latter scenario is a low confidence scenario based on the possibility of fog also being present. Speaking of fog, there is a 20% chance for fog and/or dense fog bringing visibility into the VLIFR/LIFR categories at these sites as well, generally for the same time as noted above.

Gusty west winds at KMOT, KDIK, and KXWA are forecast to subside between 00Z - 03Z, with all sites generally 10kt or less until an uptick in west winds again after 12Z Friday at KDIK and KXWA.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.