textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly warmer, yet still below normal, temperatures across the state today. Near normal temperatures Friday then above normal temperatures this weekend.

- Widespread 20 to 50 percent precipitation chances later this weekend and into early next week. Initially as rain, with a few thunderstorms on Sunday, then potentially mixing with snow on Monday.

- Breezy winds may be found at times Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1027 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Modified POPs a bit based on latest CAMs and trends, basically maintaining a chance for light snow south, but did increase POPs a bit northwest into north central late afternoon-evening with better model agreement for light precipitation moving in. Sky cover was also tweaked to better reflect current obs and expectations, overall clearing but with increasing clouds again northwest later today. All other forecast elements on track.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Lower clouds continue to linger across portions of the forecast area, while chances for light snow will go on the increase across the south this morning. Overall the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Trapped moisture under a weak area of high pressure will bring some low clouds across the area through this morning. Meanwhile, a weak upper level wave will push across the southern third of the state, perhaps bringing some rain and snow showers to areas along and south of Interstate 94. Limited snow accumulations and impacts are expected from these showers. Most areas then warm slightly today, yet remain below seasonable normals. A more broad area of high pressure then moves in tonight, bringing clearing skies and lows in the 20s. A switch to southerly flow will then be found Friday as this high moves eastward. This will start warming temperatures to near to slightly above normal along with provide for some breezy southerly winds in the west, and mainly dry conditions. Increasing clouds and breezy winds will then be found Friday night, with mild lows in the 30s, and mainly dry conditions continuing.

Southwest flow aloft will then be found for Saturday, while a surface low takes shape lee of the northern Rockies. As a result some breezy southerly winds will be found for central and eastern areas, while temperatures warm to above normal and generally in the 70s west to the 50s east. NBM currently on the lower end of spreads for temperatures, indicating warmer highs are possible for Saturday with perhaps some upper 70s to lower 80s in the west. There could be some rain showers or perhaps even some drizzle in the eastern half of the state ahead of the surface low Saturday. Weak instability could also provide for some thunderstorms across the east Saturday. Saturday night could then see more shower activity as the surface low starts to move into western portions of the state. Weak instability could bring some isolated thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours as well. The lack of shear and more robust moisture should limit the severe weather threat for Saturday. Surface low with a mid level wave is then forecast to move through on Sunday. Warm temperatures will continue for one more day as this low moves through, with NBM remaining on the lower end of temperature spreads indicating warmer than forecast temperatures are again possible for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain as this low moves through. A cold front could then follow this low later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. Timing of this front still remains key as perhaps some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for Sunday as indicated by both the CSU-MLP outlooks and the increased ECMWF EFI Cape/Shear values. Lack of shear and placement of dry air with the mentioned low could also limit the severe threat. Thus something to monitor for the upcoming weekend. The mentioned cold front then stalls on Monday, leaving widespread chances for rain and snow showers, along with cooler temperatures to the area. Breezy conditions could also be found as a result from this front on Monday. Cooler temperatures and lingering chances for precipitation may linger into Tuesday. NBM spreads then showing warming temperatures could return mid next week as clusters indicate southwest flow aloft ahead of the next troughing pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

MVFR to low VFR ceilings will continue to linger across much of the forecast area this morning. Some sites will see improvement to VFR later this morning through this afternoon, while other sites could see MVFR ceilings linger through the day. A few rain and snow showers may be found south of Interstate 94 today, with probability too low to include at any TAF sites. Skies go on a clearing trend this evening through tonight, with VFR ceilings expected at most sites. Light westerly winds will be found today, becoming light and variable tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.