textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog across northwest and central North Dakota this morning.

- Near-record high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s for the western half of the state today.

- Low to medium chances for light rain and snow on Monday. Temperatures trend slightly cooler next week, but remain above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 918 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Fog continues to expand eastward and erode westward. Thus the Fog Advisory has been extended until noon. This could hinder record temperatures for eastern climate sites resulting in cooler temperatures this afternoon. No major updates were needed to the current forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

There were no major updates with this product issuance. Starting to see signs of the fog lifting in the far northwest and parts of the south central. For now, will maintain the Dense Fog Advisory as is. See below for further discussion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Currently, broad/dirty upper level ridge over the Northern Plains this morning, with an upper level jet nosing into the Montana Rockies. Mid level wave and left exit region jet dynamics triggering low pressure development across southern Alberta, while a weak flow regime is currently over the Dakotas. Stratus and fog extend from northwest North Dakota southeast through south central ND and points east, with dense fog on the western fringes of the stratus layer over my northwest and central. Will continue to monitor the aerial coverage of the dense fog for further modifications to Dense Fog headlines this morning. As winds become more westerly this morning, do expect the low clouds and fog to push east with time.

Near record breaking highs this afternoon across the western half of the state. A quasi-zonal flow aloft coupled with the warm sector of the aforementioned sfc low spreading east over western and central North Dakota during the day today. This combined with a good westerly mixing flow will result in temperatures approaching 40F in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 60s in southwest North Dakota. Should be plenty of sun as well as clouds decrease from west to east this morning into the afternoon. Will keep forecast highs close to the 75th/90th percentile of the NBM, with a few record highs in jeopardy of being broken with forecast temperatures 30 degrees above normal.

Thereafter, upper level jet stream starts to sag farther south along with a trough developing over the western CONUS. This pattern change will suggest temperatures trending cooler next week (though remaining above normal), along with a more active pattern developing increasing precipitation chances a bit. Models have backed off on chances early next week, now only a brief period of rain/snow chances late Sun into Mon as a mid level wave interacts with a southward dipping cold FROPA. Messy split flow upper level pattern for the remainder of the work week, with no real clear signal for precipitation any given day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility continue across much of northwest and central North Dakota this morning. Dense fog remains between north and east of KXWA, west of KMOT, and through KBIS as of 12Z. KJMS remains IFR with no visibility reductions at this time, with KDIK VFR.

The low clouds and fog will clear from west to east this morning, with all terminals VFR this afternoon and for tonight. Light and variable winds become west-southwest today at around 10 kts in central North Dakota to 15-20 kts in western North Dakota. KXWA and surrounding areas could see afternoon gusts approach 30 kts. Winds turn more northwest for tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NDZ002>004-010>012-020>022-034>036-045>047-050.