textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will trend back to normal through the week, and are then favored to trend cooler next weekend.

- Windy with low to medium (20% to 50%) chances for rain and snow tonight, then again Wednesday.

- Higher uncertainties for light snow and cooler temperatures to end the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Little updates needed this morning. The forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Currently a flattening ridge is over the Northern Plains. This quasi-zonal flow has kicked off a low pressure from the Canadian Rockies, aimed at North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure continues to dominate.

Today will be much warmer with that zonal flow. Look for highs back around normal in the 20s to 50 in the southwest. Of course it wouldn't be a warm day in North Dakota without breezy winds. South winds will be gusting around 30mph today ahead of the low pressure system. This pressure gradient will continue through the night with the potential to gust near 50mph when the cold front then hits. Confidence is lower on that right now so no wind headlines are out. With the warmer temperatures ahead of the low, the precipitation will start as rain/snow, maybe even freezing rain in the north and east. The confidence in freezing rain is lower since this is a very quick moving system and the FRAM is indicating it just in the north. The timing on the precip will be around 9pm today to 6am Tuesday, with the possible freezing rain starting at midnight when the colder backside of the low moves in and the nocturnal temperatures cool. The precip will move from the north to the southeast through the night. Snow accumulations will be low, less than half an inch.

Tuesday the warmer, normal temperatures continue with zonal flow in the northwestern CONUS. A slight shortwave will kickoff another low pressure system from the Rocky Mountains that will impact the state most of Wednesday. Unlike the last one, this one will be mostly snow as temperatures in the central and east will be below freezing. The only place for rain is the southwest. Around half an inch can be excepted for this clipper. There is no strong pressure bubble or CAA with this system so breezy winds are expected but not as high.

The rest of the week will feature northwest flow and temperatures staying around normal with on and off slight (20%) chances for light snow. This coming weekend, a surge of cold air is possible as models have the northwest flow sliding south. The NBM temperature spreads are very large showing the uncertainty with that happening. Current NBM temperatures are ranging from zero in the north to 20 in the southwest. From there models heavily disagree on temperatures, especially at the 850mb level.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR through the period. Winds will gusts up to 30kts by tonight, from the west. A rain and snow mix will move into the north tonight and last through Tuesday morning. As of now, a PROB30 was used for that as confidence is not super high. Wind shear is also possible tonight at all terminals.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.