textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous to life-threatening wind chills as low as 50 below zero continue through Sunday morning, coldest across the north.

- Highs this weekend mostly in the single digits above and below zero. Lows tonight around 15 to 30 below.

- Flurries or perhaps a dusting of light snow could develop this afternoon through tonight.

- Temperatures favored to warm next week, but could still remain below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends have been blended in for this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 427 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Arctic air mass remains entrenched under northwest flow aloft. The center of the surface high has shifted off to our east, and there is now some weak warm air advection aloft. Nevertheless, temperatures have fallen into the teens and 20s below zero, with a handful of locations at -30 or colder. Wind chills are also at dangerous to life-threatening values in the 30s and 40s below this morning. We do anticipate an appreciable warmup this afternoon compared to yesterday, but it will remain bitterly cold for most areas with highs range from around 10 below northeast to 10 above southwest. A broad area of shortwave troughing is forecast to drop down from the Canadian prairie provinces later today, with some tangential weaker forcing also ejecting off the Northern Rockies. Model soundings show a deeply saturated or at least near-saturated layer with respect to ice, so we do anticipate the development of flurries or perhaps even a dusting of light snow as this broad area of synoptic scale lift pivots through the region this afternoon through tonight. NBM probabilities for measurable precipitation remain lower than those from the HREF (around 20 to 40 percent across western and southern North Dakota) and significantly lower than global ensembles (around 60 to 90 percent chance along and west of Highway 83). For now will advertise just low chances for light snow and flurries, as there is some spatial and timing spread within the guidance that does produce measurable snow. But think that the occurrence of at least flurries somewhere at sometime between this afternoon and late tonight is very likely.

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air is forecast to follow the shortwave down from Canada later tonight, with another surface high crossing the region from north to south on Sunday. Another night of bitterly cold temperatures around 15 to 30 below and dangerous to life- threatening wind chills as low as 50 below is in store for tonight. Both the Extreme Cold Warning (north and east of the Missouri River) and Cold Weather Advisory (south and west of the river) remain in effect until noon CST Sunday. However, a 10 mph west to northwest wind and colder high temperatures mostly in the single digits below zero could keep wind chills in the 20s and 30s below zero Sunday afternoon, holding near those values through Sunday night.

By Monday morning, a Pacific warm front is forecast to cross the region. It will likely take until at least Monday afternoon to scour out the Arctic air, and a cold front tied to a clipper moving through Saskatchewan/Manitoba now looks like it could arrive soon enough to prevent a significant warmup outside of southwest North Dakota. We are still comfortable with NBM forecast highs in the teens northeast to 20s southwest on Monday, but would not be surprised to see a greater contrast in temperatures going both ways. The main story on Monday could be windy conditions both in the warm sector and with the cold frontal passage. Mean low level winds are forecast around 30-40 kts, but afternoon low level lapse rates look very unimpressive. For now, think a most likely outcome would be for gusts to around 35 mph on Monday.

For the rest of the upcoming week, ensembles continue to show a clash between mean western CONUS ridging and eastern CONUS troughing, with the Northern Plains holding near the baroclinic zone dividing the Pacific and Arctic air masses. NBM temperature spread has shrunk for Tuesday, which is now projected to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Monday. The means of the distributions remain near steady at below normal temperatures through Thursday, but spread begins to increase drastically over this time frame. This uncertainty is reflected in ensemble cluster analysis of 850 mb temperatures, and it may be worth noting that clusters now exhibit a slight tilt toward a cooler outcome. NBM temperature distributions finally begin to increase heading into next weekend. But the spread of the distributions remains quite large, and their means would still only bring us back to near normal temperatures for late January. The NBM maintains a dry forecast for next week, which seems reasonable at this forecast time range. Clusters do show low to medium probabilities for measurable precipitation on Wednesday as a shortwave moves over the baroclinic zone, but timing and placement uncertainty is evident.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected this morning. Later this afternoon through this evening, MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop across much of western and central North Dakota, with IFR possible in areas from around KDIK to KJMS. Flurries or light snow could accompany the lower ceilings, with MVFR to perhaps IFR visibility under falling snow. Confidence in the magnitude and duration of any visibility restrictions from snow remains low. The low ceilings and light snow/flurries should clear from north to south later tonight as a cold front moves down from Canada. Light winds are expected through the forecast period, generally southerly through the day and turning northerly tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for NDZ001>005- 009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.