textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light accumulating snow likely mainly over the southwest tonight into Thursday.

- Below average temperatures (cooler northeast, warmer southwest) continue through the workweek, then near to above average for the weekend and into next week.

- Medium chances (40 to 70 percent) for light snow late Friday night through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A fairly wide stripe of low-level stratus persists from northwestern ND through the south central. While not being observed on any equipment, including the Bismarck ASOS, very light freezing drizzle has been observed here at the office. Based on the latest trends, this light freezing drizzle should end over the next hour or two with little to no impact expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

For the day today, generally expect quiet weather with elongated surface high pressure remaining in place over eastern Saskatchewan/western Manitoba, through northern and eastern North Dakota, and into northeastern South Dakota/west central Minnesota. For the north central and east, this will result in light and variable winds for much of the day and partly cloudy skies. For the west and south central, overall mostly cloudy skies and light easterly or southeasterly winds are favored to prevail.

For this evening, and especially starting later tonight, expect increasing moisture in the mid-levels within northwesterly flow aloft. Subtle shortwave energy and associated WAA will likely force light snow across parts of western and south central ND, with a medium to high overall probability of at least an inch of snow in parts of the far southwest and a less than 20 percent chance of two inches. While the highest probabilities of snow are late tonight through Thursday morning, snow chances linger through Friday morning.

Once any snow ends, expect mostly dry conditions Friday through Friday night before an Alberta Clipper propagates across the region Saturday through Saturday night. Neither winds nor snow with this system look particularly noteworthy at this point. In regard to winds, despite a fairly strong pressure gradient ahead of the clipper Friday night into Saturday morning, there are currently no notable pressure rises progged, nor is the EFI producing anything of note. As a result, while winds may become breezy to windy Friday night and Saturday, they are currently favored to remain sub-advisory level. In regard to snow, both NBM operational and NBM 5.0 probabilities produce widespread 50 to 70 percent probabilities of measurable snow, but 30 percent or less of an inch or more. Therefore, suspect this clipper will be a transitory dusting for most locations, with a low chance of an inch or more mainly in the eastern half of the state.

In regard to temperatures, a west CONUS ridge will maintain northwesterly flow aloft through the remainder of the workweek. This will help maintain the continued pattern of cooler temperatures northeast (low single digits on either side of zero) to warmer temperatures southwest (low to mid 20s), although Friday highs will likely be a little cooler overall and in the single digits on either side of zero for all but the west. In addition, Cold Weather headlines could return for parts of the forecast area, especially the north central, Thursday night. For this weekend and into next week, expect near average to seasonably above average temperatures as multiple ridges potentially pass through region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A fairly wide strip of low-level stratus persists from northwestern ND through south central ND. For the most part, ceilings under this stratus remain low VFR. However, there are pockets of MVFR ceilings. Of note, while the ASOS is not detecting it, there is some very light freezing drizzle falling at the office next to KBIS. Currently it's not enough to be easily observable on the ground. However, vehicle windshields noticeably contain drops of moisture. At this point, don't expect light drizzle to last more than an hour or two, nor does the intensity seem likely to increase.

Otherwise, ceilings should improve later this morning before low chances of light snow and additional MVFR stratus returns to the far northwest later this afternoon, which will then expand across all of western and into south central ND overnight. For the most part, accumulations should remain at an inch or less, mainly in the far southwest, though there is a low chance for localized amounts up to two inches. Winds will remain light through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.