textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for thunderstorms today, with the higher chances over the far south. Some storms could become severe.

- Chances for thunderstorms again on Tuesday, with a marginal severe threat primarily over southern portions of the area.

- Near average temperatures today and Tuesday, with a cooling trend then expected through the end of the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1020 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Thunderstorms continue to develop in north central portions along a weak boundary, and enhanced by an upper level wave. Instability in this area is all elevated, although there is up to 1000 J/KG of CAPE. The stronger storms seem to be riding this higher gradient of elevated CAPE, and combined with high effective bulk shear, are pulsing up to strong to severe thresholds at times. Expect this trend to continue through at least this morning until the mid level wave pushes eastward. Hail to golf ball size and some stronger wind gusts will be possible with these morning storms. Otherwise the severe weather outlook for later today through tonight remains the same with a Marginal to Slight Risk in the south.

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A couple thunderstorms have developed and moved easterly between Stanley and Minot near an instability gradient. Do not expect these to become severe, but cant rule out some small hail from these storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Current surface analysis places low over eastern Wyoming, with high stretching through Saskatchewan nudging into southwest Manitoba. Upper level analysis places high over the desert southwest, with low amplitude ridging stretching northward, while upper low remains over Hudson Bay. Over our area, we remain in west-northwest flow, albeit a tad cyclonic. A few weak radar echos were recently over far north-central North Dakota, but now have focused north of the international border.

For today, seasonal temperatures are expected with most locations pushing into the 80s, with some 70s over far northwest into north central North Dakota. With the surface low to the south-soutwest, a modest east-southeast wind is expected which will usher in some higher low-level moisture. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop over parts of the area this morning into mid-day as a modest wave moves through the weakly cyclonic flow, but better chances come later this afternoon and this evening primarily to southern locations as a short wave trough moves through South Dakota nudging into North Dakota. Further north convection may be limited due to rather modest upper level height rises. With respect to severe potential, 0-6 km shear values remain quite elevated, at around 50kts, while latest guidance indicates elevated instability with CAPE values around 2500 J/Kg, highest values along the South Dakota border. Therefore, large hail with some strong wind gusts will be possible, greatest potential along our southern areas.

A similar scenario will be in place for Tuesday, though latest guidance is a little more aggressive with the strength of the short wave moving through. Deep layer shear values remain elevated, with ample instability expected for additional severe potential, particularly over the southern half of the state.

A gradual cooling trend then develops Wednesday through Friday. Daily chances for precipitation remain in the forecast with various short-wave troughs moving through, but a pattern shift appears to come either late Thursday or Friday as ridge axis pushes east and flow briefly turns southwesterly. This will bring higher chances for precipitation to the area. For this weekend into early next week, modest chances for precipitation remain in the forecast, with a gradual warming trend possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Occasional isolated thunderstorms are expected over the area through much of the day today, with the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the southern half of the area this evening. Some storms may become severe with strong wind gusts and large hail, with the greatest chances for severe near the South Dakota border. Otherwise, localized MVFR ceilings will be possible in fog over northwest North Dakota early this morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.