textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures through the rest of the week over most locations. Possible record setting, especially over western and southern locations.

- Dry through remainder of work week, with precipitation chances returning Saturday/Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the Canadian Rockies with trough dipping into the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places broad high over the desert southwest, resulting in broad ridging throughout the western CONUS. Over our area, low level moisture along and ahead of the aforementioned trough is resulting in some patchy fog, while temperatures remain quite mild.

For today, very warm temperatures are expected over most of the area thanks to broad thermal ridge over the western CONUS and broad downslope flow. Multiple temperature records are in jeopardy as highs climb into the 60s and 70s over much of our area, about 25 to 30 degrees above average. The exception to the really warm temperatures will be over far north central North Dakota around the Turtle Mountains where snow cover remains keeping temperatures notably cooler, though still above average. Along with the toasty temperatures is dry conditions, most notably over southwest into parts of west central North Dakota where dewpoints have been lowered below NBM closer to latest RAP/HRRR values. Minimum humidity values in the upper teens to mid 20s will combine with a westerly breeze to bring near critical fire weather conditions. The toasty temperatures continue through Friday.

On Saturday, cooler air starts to work its way into the area as a broad Pacific trough busts through the top of the ridge and a cold front starts to push in. With the timing of the cooler air arrival, still expect much of western and south central North Dakota to be quite mild, but over north central North Dakota, notably cooler temperatures are possible but in question as NBM spreads are quite high (example would be Rugby where the 25th/75th percentile spread ranges from 38 to 55 degrees). With the presence of the trough, low precipitation chances show up over northern parts of the area Saturday (snow over colder areas/rain over warmer). Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) spread through the area overnight, with chances transitioning towards snow through the night as the cooler air pushes in.

On Sunday, cooler air settles in with temperatures near to possibly even a tad below average with drier conditions. Warming and continued dry conditions are expected Monday into the day on Tuesday. Late Tuesday through Wednesday bring precipitation chances to the area. Question still exists as to the timing of the thermal ridge building in and the trough breaking it down, as reflected in rather broad NBM temperature spreads throughout our area (about a 20 to 25 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile). Therefore, confidence in high temperatures forecast is rather low. Cooldown then expected to end the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Localized fog possible through mid-morning over central North Dakota including the James River Valley, including the KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS terminals. Given the low coverage and unknown exact timing, this has not been mentioned in any of the individual TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.