textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through the work week, with near record highs possible Thursday and Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures this weekend and into early next week.

- Dry conditions through Thursday, then low to medium chances for showers Friday into Saturday.

- Breezy to windy Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 842 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Clear skies across western and central ND early this Wednesday morning. No updates needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Currently, mostly clear skies across western and central North Dakota. A weak, dry cold front has pushed through all but the far southeast portion of the state. Temperatures behind the front were in the lower 30s to mid 40s. A few areas of patchy fog were noted where temperature/dew point spread were close.

For today, high pressure slides east across the state. Generally light winds from the north will shift east to southeast through the day. Western ND will see some stronger southeast winds (around 15-20 mph) mid to late afternoon. Highs today will be just a bit cooler than Tuesday for most areas, but still well above normal. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday and Friday will see the warmest temperatures of the week. Highs each day will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s, with warmest temperatures each day in the southwest. We utilized a blend of NBM and NBM90 for today through Friday. Today was a 50/50 blend with Thursday and Friday each leaning towards the warmer NBM90 temperatures. Near record, to record highs will be possible, especially southwest and south central.

An upper level trough lifts into the Region Friday into Saturday. This will bring an increasing southerly surface flow to western and central ND Friday, with a strong west to northwest surface flow on Saturday.

Friday afternoon and evening will see mainly low chances for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Moderate to strong shear lifts through the forecast area with some elevated CAPE, as high as around 600 J/kg over western ND around 00Z Saturday. With the warm temperatures expected. Low level CIN will remain and will be hard to overcome. The highest precipitation chances will be Friday night as wrap around moisture lifts through the northwest portion of the state behind the surface low that lifts northward into southern Canada. Much cooler air will also spread into the State on Saturday, ushered in by the strong west to northwest winds. After highs in the 70s and lower 80s Friday. Highs Saturday are forecast to range from the mid 40s northwest to the upper 50s over the southern James River Valley.

Friday and Saturday may also produce some near critical fire weather conditions. Friday, southerly winds around 15 to 25 mph develop over southwest ND, with temperatures approaching 80 degrees and low humidities. The far southwest could see a few hours of near critical fire weather conditions. On Saturday, strong winds will spread east across the state. By Saturday afternoon, very dry air will spread into the state. At this time it looks like the dry filters into the state behind the strong winds. Thus if there are some near critical conditions, they would be brief. The much cooler air will also aid in keeping near critical fire weather conditions at bay.

Cooler conditions remain in the forecast Sunday and through the first half of the workweek. There are a couple of systems that may approach our local area early in the workweek but uncertainty remains high in timing and placement. Currently the NBM is advertising only some hit and miss slight chance pops from late Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z TAF period. light northerly winds to begin the TAF period. Winds will shift east to southeast through the day today and pick up to 5-15 mph this afternoon, before dropping off a little this evening. Only a few mid and high clouds expected through the 12Z TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.