textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend, then will trend warmer next week.

- Low to medium chances for light precipitation at times next week, with high uncertainty in timing, placement, and amounts.

UPDATE

Issued at 1146 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Little updates made at this hour. Clear skies and quiet weather remain over the area.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Quiet weather and clear skies remain over the area. No changes needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 747 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Quiet weather remains over the area with mainly clear skies, with the exception of some passing clouds over parts of the James River Valley. No changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft with an upper level ridge axis over the Intermountain West and a broad troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS. Embedded S/WV troughs/mid level lows continue to rotate southeasterly on the western fringes of the trough and ahead of the upper ridge, generating at times low/mid level cloud cover over parts of the region and maintaining a quasi- stationary sfc ridge stretching from Saskatchewan southeast into the Dakotas. This feature in turn continues to generate a steady northwest breeze across western and central North Dakota this afternoon, with gusts up to around 25 mph and sustained winds 15-20 mph.

Surface ridge slowly nudges east into the central Dakotas tonight, decreasing winds and trending winds light and variable west. As a result, a few high res models computed patchy fog over western North Dakota, which seemed reasonable so added this to the forecast for tonight. A few high res models also bring in some lower clouds from east to west after 06Z in the wake of another mid level wave. Something we'll keep an eye on for in case cloud cover needs to be increased.

We maintain northwest flow aloft through Sunday, though with return flow developing in the wake of the sfc ridge over the west. Daytimes highs nudge up a few degrees southwest where return flow is more prolonged and where there is a greater chance of a clear sky, remaining below normal elsewhere with the colder airmass persisting.

For next week, the aforementioned upper ridge builds east into the Rockies, then broadens as it's flattened by multiple embedded waves and a strong upper level jet. This pattern change will bring a milder airmass into the region, with temperatures trending warmer Monday into Tuesday. A west-northwesterly flow pattern looks to remain in place for much of next week, keeping temperatures at or above normal on average. We will also have periodic chances for precipitation through the week, starting Monday night/Tuesday as the above mentioned waves and upper jet dynamics spread over the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR through the period. Winds will be breezy from the northwest around 20 knots.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.