textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds continue in the southern James River Valley through early evening.

- Mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through the first part of the week, then a warming trend develops.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Shortwave trough currently over eastern SD will lift further off into the Upper Midwest tonight, with the next major shortwave coming around the Hudson Bay low moving into the Rockies. Light radar returns continue over southern portions of the forecast area, but should clear out as the eastern shortwave continues to pull away. Fairly tight pressure gradient will continue over the southern James River Valley into the early evening before we lose the good mixing and the system pulls further east, so will keep the wind advisory going. Should start to see clouds clear out for a period overnight as high pressure builds into the Western Plains. Tomorrow, the Rockies shortwave moves out into the Plains, although the bulk of the vorticity and precipitation looks like it will be to our south. However, several CAMs show some shower activity across eastern MT and encroaching into far western ND. The model soundings have a pretty good dry layer at the surface so uncertain how much will actually reach the ground, but included some very low POPs in far northwestern ND for tomorrow afternoon.

Northwesterly flow aloft with a few weak embedded shortwaves continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. A few of these minor ripples could bring some low precip chances, but they are unlikely to be high QPF producers under northwest flow. ECMWF EFI is not showing much of a wet signal, and NBM probabilities of over a tenth of an inch of rain are under 20 percent. Temperatures should moderate back up to near or above seasonal averages later this week as 500mb heights rise. Some of the ensemble members showing another stronger trough digging in by day 7 that could bring some colder temps again, but several other clusters keep higher heights over the Plains, so confidence is low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A bit of light snow continues to hang around KDIK, and MVFR ceilings continue for the southern three TAF sites. The MVFR should improve during the next few hours, with all sites VFR by 00Z. Winds from the north gusting over 25 kts around KJMS will begin to diminish late this afternoon and evening, becoming light and variable overnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ025-036-037- 047-048-050-051.