textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers at times through Thursday, but mainly dry for most locations through the rest of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through Thursday, then a warming trend develops Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Diurnal cumulus has formed across the southwest and south central with a bit of instability has lead to a few showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will move southeasterly as northwesterly flow dominates. No major updates are needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Northwesterly flow continues across the area. Some clouds and showers continue to move across the southern half of the state. No major updates are needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Scattered weak radar returns can be found over portions of central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings for this area reveals a very dry layer of air for the first 5K feet above the ground, indicating that little to no precipitation is likely to reach the ground. So far, no precpitation has been evident on NDDOT cameras or weather stations. For this update, have made some minor tweaks to the sky cover to account for the latest satellite trends. Have also removed the low fog chances in the southwest this morning since it hasn't been forthcoming, and mid level clouds are starting to move overhead of this area. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Flow over the northern Plains is turning cyclonically around an upper level low meandering across the Great Lakes region this morning. Mainly dry and calm weather can be found at the surface as high pressure moves in across the International Border. Later this morning, a low pressure center is progged to move across southeastern Minnesota into northwestern South Dakota, allowing for at least some chances for light precpitation across portions of the southwest and south central through this afternoon. An interrogation of BUFKIT soundings during this period reveals a fairly dry column across much of this area, with some measure of saturation found only along the ND/SD border. With this in mind, whatever showers that do develop today are expected to be fairly limited in scope and impact. Have left a slight chance (<20%) for showers later this morning through the afternoon. Short term CAMs do advertise at least a little CAPE becoming available across the south today, which could promote an isolated rumble of thunder or two. Overall, the chance of severe weather is very low. Otherwise for today, low temperatures this morning are broadly in the 20s. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast mainly in the low to mid 50s, with some pockets of upper 40s possible longer the International Border. With a tightening pressure gradient between the high to our north and the low to our south, a breezy north wind is expected this afternoon, with sustained speeds up to around 15 MPH and a few gusts up to around 20 MPH.

With cyclonic flow persisting, very similar conditions to today are forecast for Thursday. Mainly dry, with some low chances for precpitation across portions of south central North Dakota as another weak wave passes through the area. Lows Thursday morning are expected to be from the upper 20s to lower 30s, while highs are forecast from in the lower 40s to mid 50s.

Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected to continue Friday through the end of the week as the influence of a transient upper level ridge increases across the northern Plains. Highs by Saturday and Sunday are broadly expected to peak into the 60s and even the lower 70s across western and central North Dakota. With such warm temperatures, low minimum relative humidity in the 20 to 25 percent range is expected across much of the west and portions of central. Another round of breezy winds are also expected during this period as the pressure gradient tightens between an approaching low to our west and a retreating high to our east, with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 MPH and a few gusts up to 25 MPH. The greatest overlap of lowest RHs and strongest winds is expected to occur in the northwest, though still remain shy of near critical conditions are this time. Looking ahead into next week, the NBM advertises at least low chances for precpitation over portions of the forecast area as the aforementioned surface low cuts across the northern Plains Sunday night through Monday. The ensemble remains fairly discordant beyond this period as model members attempt to resolve a number of shortwave perturbations ejecting off a retrograding Hudson Bay low, resulting in a decent spread in high temperatures (10 to 15 degrees) and uncertainty in the coverage of potential light precpitation through early next week. In any scenario, there is no strong wet signal for western and central North Dakota at the time of this forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the region this afternoon. Winds will continue to back out of the north with some wind gusts out west and across the north. There are currently some showers south of KDIK with the chance for TS in the far southwest. Winds will continue to back out of the west tonight veering back out of the northwest by tomorrow afternoon. There could be some lower ceiling that impact KMOT early tomorrow morning leading to MVFR conditions.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.