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KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty westerly winds today, with gusts to 55 mph mainly north of Interstate 94.

- Near critical fire weather conditions over southwest and parts of south central North Dakota this afternoon.

- Showers likely northwest and north central tonight, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Slight chance of showers southwest and south central.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday along, south and west of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southwest and portions of northwest North Dakota.

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday, a notable but brief warm up for Thursday, with much cooler temperatures expected by the weekend.

- More widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms return late in the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Windy conditions continue across much of western and central ND this afternoon, with strongest winds north and central. Short term guidance continues to indicate that most areas will see a gradual decrease in the strongest wind gusts after around 4 PM. The Turtle Mountains area looks to have the best potential for stronger gusts 4 PM.

A low pressure system over southern Manitoba is responsible for our strong winds this afternoon. A shortwave, which is currently tracking across the northern Rockies will move into the northeast Montana this evening, then track across North Dakota tonight. This will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm to mainly northwest and north central ND. There is another weaker wave that may bring a slight chance for showers to southwest and south central ND. Better chances tonight will definitely be in the northern half of the state. Precipitation amounts will be light with most seeing under a tenth of an inch, with some areas seeing between a tenth and a quarter of an inch.

Wednesday will be another seasonably cool day with highs mainly in the 70s. It will be a little Wednesday but not to the extent that a Wind Advisory will be needed, mainly westerly 15 to 25 mph with some gust to 30-35 mph south central.

Another Canadian cyclone will bring a cold front through the area Thursday night. Ahead of the cold front, we are expected to see a brief but noticeable warm-up Thursday afternoon, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s over a good portion of western and central ND, with upper 80s forecast in west central and southwest ND. It may be breezy at times Thursday afternoon, but widespread windy conditions are not expected. It will become breezy on Friday, behind the cold front, and we could see an isolated shower as well. Temperature wise, Friday will be a transition day with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s in the northwest, well behind the front, to the mid 80s in the southern James River Valley, which may not see the front move through until the afternoon. The cold front will usher in cooler temperatures that are forecast to remain over the area through the weekend. Forecast highs are expected to be in mostly in the 60s through the weekend, with some upper 50 degree readings possible in the north. Overnight lows Saturday night may drop into the mid 30s over some areas, especially in the north.

An approaching upper level low will bring more widespread precipitation chances to the area late in the weekend and into next week. A lot of uncertainty remains in the timing/placement of this system at this time it looks like we may see a good chance of widespread precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Strong westerly winds to begin the 18Z TAF period. The strong winds will continue through the afternoon, then diminish this evening. VFR clouds expected through the day and into this evening with the wrap around moisture behind the system tracking east through Manitoba. An upper level system will bring a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, west to east across the forecast area tonight, with better chances in the north. Included a PROB30 for a thunderstorm at KXWA, and showers at KMOT. For now, kept the precipitation out of the southern TAF sites, although a brief shower can not be ruled out. After midnight and into Wednesday morning, there may be some lower ceilings with a MVFR ceiling not out of the question. Westerly winds will also pick up a bit around mid-morning Wednesday, but will remain much lower than today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon over a portions of southwest and south central ND.

Strong west to northwest winds around 30 with gusts to 55 mph across much of western and central North Dakota, will slowly diminish late this afternoon, then drop off pretty quickly this evening. Minimum afternoon humidity values will mainly be in the 30s over southwest and south central North Dakota, with possibly some upper 20s over portions of Bowman and Adams Counties. Therefore, near critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of southwest and south central North Dakota. To the north, higher relative humidity values are expected.

Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast for Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening for southwest and west central ND. Near Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast across much of the remainder of western and central ND during this time. Humidity values will dip into the lower teens to lower 20s south and west of the Missouri River, while southwest winds increase to around 15 to 20 mph. Due to the low humidity and breezy conditions, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southwest and west central North Dakota. Areas north and east of the Missouri River will see similar winds with humidity values dipping into the mid 20s to mid 30s, except mid 40s around the Turtle Mountains.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-055>059. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.