textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog across northern North Dakota this afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through Friday, then are favored to trend cooler this weekend.

- Medium to high (40 to 60%) chance for accumulating snow across the south Friday to Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1159 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A warm front is beginning to move into western North Dakota late this morning, with winds beginning to shift from southerly to westerly. Still a fair amount of widespread low stratus across the north and central, although RGB day-snow fog satellite reveals the stratus deck is starting to break up in places. Fog has been improving through the morning, with some patchy fog still occasionally reducing visibility across northern North Dakota. No major changes with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 907 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Area of low stratus and associated patchy dense fog continues to drift north through western North Dakota this morning. We did issue another Special Weather Statement for Divide through Dunn Counties, where we are seeing significantly reduced visibilities through both automated observations and webcams. RAP-based forecast soundings have ceilings lifting in the Williston area mid to late morning, so will see how things trend over the next hour or two. There are some marginally reduced visibilities in southwest North Dakota under the western edge of the stratus deck that extends across much of the forecast area. Main change with this update was to adjust fog grids to expand and extend mention over the next couple of hours.

UPDATE Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The low stratus and fog continue in portions of the west and south central. It seems like overall the fog is starting to lift, so visibilities are only as low as 4 miles now. An SPS has been issued after seeing some dense spots on webcams. It looks like it is trying to move north and back to the east. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, as the light snow is staying south in South Dakota this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Currently northwest flow is present over the Northern Plains. At the surface a high pressure is sitting in the eastern Dakotas. Low stratus clouds have formed in southwestern North Dakota on the edge of the high pressure. Some of these low clouds are actually fog, reducing visibilities to less than 2 miles. This should continue through the late morning until the diurnal heating increases the dew point depressions.

Today will be near or above normal temperatures. A slight shortwave in the northwest flow will move through South Dakota today, leading to chances of snow. Most of the wave will miss North Dakota, so now the chances for snow are mainly just along the South Dakota border. Almost no snow accumulations are expected, especially with temperatures above freezing in most of those areas.

The rest of the week will be continued warmth with near to above normal highs. Thursday will be breezy with a passing low pressure to the south. Friday a clipper system will miss the state to the north, but a trailing cold front will move through the state. Winds will of course be windy. Temperatures will start to cool from north to south after 1pm CT. Friday night the southwest part of the state will be squeezed between a surface ridge in central ND, and a low pressure system in Wyoming. This will create a banded snow event. The band of snow will end up somewhere in the southwest half of the state, depending on how far that surface ridge moves south. Confidence is high in the event happening, the question is just where exactly. NBM probabilities for 2 inches of snow are 50 to 70 percent in the southwest corner, south of the Interstate. For 4 inches, it drops to 30 percent. The forecast trend for snow totals have been increasing, we will continue to monitor the situation.

In the high pressure and post cold front air, Saturday will be much cooler. Lows will be below zero north to around 10 elsewhere, then expect highs well below normal. Single digits in the north to lower 20s in the southwest. Sunday lows will be just as cold, with highs warming slightly more than Saturday's. Heading into next week uncertainty exponentially grows for temperatures. The NBM spreads are 30 degrees. This is mostly due to the models differing in a possible Colorado low (that would miss North Dakota) and different upper air flows. The range is shrinking and it is warmer overall from previous model runs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Moderate MVFR to IFR stratus deck continues over parts of northern and central North Dakota early this afternoon, with some patchy fog impacting KXWA and KMOT to start the TAF period. Southerly winds will be turning westerly as a warm front moves through the forecast area this afternoon and evening, with strong winds expected on Thursday. Expecting a return to VFR conditions at all terminals by this evening, with LLWS overnight included at KXWA, KDIK, and KBIS.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.