textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be above average through Wednesday, with breezy to windy winds. A Wind Advisory in effect tonight through Tuesday evening for wind gusts up 45 MPH.

- A very strong low pressure system will likely bring mixed precipitation, accumulating snow, and very strong winds Wednesday into Thursday.

- A trend back to cooler temperatures is expected for the latter half of the week. However, both highs and lows may vary greatly from northeast (cooler) to southwest (warmer).

UPDATE

Issued at 550 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Temperatures continue to slowly warm into the mid 30s across the west and central, except in the cooler valleys. No major updates were made early this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Currently, a flattening ridge is on going across the Northern Plains as zonal flow off the Pacific Northwest moves in. At the surface a slight low pressure and warm front are moving through North Dakota. This has kept temperatures in the west and south in the 30s and 40s overnight. The exception is in the river valleys where the colder air has pooled. There temperatures are in the teens.

Today will be much warmer across the state with that zonal flow and warm front. Highs will widely be in the 30s and lower 40s, but they will occur tonight near midnight with another warm front. This evening winds will increase to gusts up to 45mph in the north and central from a tightening pressure gradient from a passing Alberta Clipper system and the second warm front. These winds will stay elevated through Tuesday late afternoon with the influence of cold air advection (CAA). Around sunset the pressure gradient will loosen and winds will relax some. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the north, central and James River Valley starting tonight at 06z and going to 00z Wednesday (Tuesday evening).

Tuesday a backdoor cold front (the CAA mentioned above) off that low moves into the state. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the forecast period with upper 30s to lower 40s forecast ahead of the front. This will likely mean that high temperatures could be reached before noon, especially in the north. Temperatures will then start to cool after 18z however, with the cold front dropping in from Canada.

Wednesday the next Alberta Clipper system will directly impact the state with very strong winds, mixed precipitation, and snow accumulation. Models are showing this low pressure center could be down near 985mb, which is a very strong low and has the potential to create very high winds. Starting Wednesday morning (6am to 9am) freezing rain is possible across the north as the warmer air aloft creates rain, but surface temps are below freezing. This should quickly change to rain as surface temperatures warm. Around noon, rain should become widespread through the CWA. Winds will start to increase to 50mph as the backside of the low nears the west, along with strong Arctic cold air advection. By 00z, most of western and central ND will be in the cold wrap around air, changing the rain to snow and increasing winds to gusting near 65mph potentially in the west (more on that below). With this, the snow squall parameter is very high in the southwest in the evening. This will be something to continue watching for. Some type of wind headline will be needed across the entire CWA, with a Winter Weather Advisory far north. After sunset the entire CWA could be gusting near 65mph through about Thursday morning. Snow will continue through Thursday evening in the north and east. Snow totals look to be 2 to 4 inches along and north of Highway 2, with the highest totals near the Turtle Mountains and east.

Wind chills Wednesday night in the far north could also get into the dangerous category, possibly needing a product for that as temperatures plummet below zero with winds gusting near 50mph. Speaking of the winds, extremely high pressure rises (15-20mb per 3 hours) and the Arctic level of CAA, will likely create winds gusting around 65mph. Conditions in the north and central will be near blizzard, if not an actual blizzard in areas of falling snow. This would be a significant blowing snow event in the north. The EFI values for wind gusts is 0.95 with a shift of tail of 2 still. This is continuing to boost our confidence in a very strong wind and not normal (high EFI numbers) event Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

Naturally then, Thursday will be the coldest day of the forecast post CAA and with a surface high moving in. The NBM does have a 10 degree temperature range, but either way the state will not warm to above freezing. The far north may not warm above zero. The rest of the week will have zonal flow dominate again with temperatures possibly reaching back into the 30s, although the temperature spreads are about 25 degrees. Slight chances on and off for light snow are also possible as little waves off the Northern Rockies form and move east.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR through the period with wind shear starting this evening across most of western and central ND. Winds this morning will be calm to around 10kts. Tonight through Tuesday winds will gust up to 43kts across the north, central, and east from the west. The southwest will have west winds gusting closer to 30kts. Wind shear will continue through the end of the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 035>037-047-048-050-051.