textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions in the southern James River Valley this afternoon.

- Temperatures through Monday will range from seasonably mild north to unseasonably warm southwest, followed by a quick but sharp cool down on Tuesday.

- A wintry mix of rain and snow (possibly some freezing rain) north and central Sunday night through Monday night. Little or no precipitation is expected south of the I-94 corridor.

- A late week system will bring low to medium chances for rain and snow Thursday through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Quiet weather continues with high clouds passing through. No changes needed to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Currently, broad upper level ridging centered over the Rockies results in a west-northwesterly flow aloft with some mid to upper level clouds streaming across the region. An east/southeasterly flow regime at the surface with low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. Flow aloft and at the surface remains quasi-stationary through the weekend, with similar weather for tomorrow forecast as today.

Winds remain elevated out of the southwest across the southern James River Valley today, coupled with percent afternoon relative humidity in the mid 20s to around 30. Thus will maintain a mention of near critical fire weather in the HWO with this forecast iteration.

For tomorrow, fire weather concerns elevate southwest where minimum humidities are forecast to be around 20 to 25 percent along with winds shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Will need to continue monitoring as current forecast wind magnitudes (when coupled with forecast RH) approach near- critical fire weather thresholds and may again warrant elevated messaging.

S/WV trough moves through the region Monday and Tuesday, with initially warm advection precip and possible banding along the northern tier counties Sunday night into Monday morning, followed by the cold FROPA Monday night. There are a lot of uncertainties with this system, mainly regarding precipitation types. Regardless, latest NBM ensemble guidance still show medium to high probabilities for QPF across northern ND, where a couple inches of snow (low probs of 4") will be possible. Mixed precipitation ( freezing rain) is also possible.

We continue to also monitor a mid to late week system which may bring weather impacts to parts of the Northern Plains. While details are uncertain, an active weather period appears likely with elevated precipitation chances. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.