textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well below average temperatures will continue this weekend into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 25 below zero will be possible both this morning and tonight.

- An active northwest flow is forecast for next week, with periodic chances for snow and moderate to large fluctuations in day-to-day temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently, northwest flow aloft with an embedded S/WV trough propagating southeast across the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure slowly building across the western Dakotas, while deep low pressure resides over the Midwest near the southern Great Lakes region. Resultant pressure gradient maintains a steady northwest breeze east of the sfc high, and when coupled with temperatures in the single digits above and below, early morning wind chills have dropped in the -15 to -25 range west and north central. Low level clouds and scattered flurries persist, along with some light snow downstream of Lake Sakakawea where some lake enhancement is occurring thanks to the low level cold northwest flow over the warmer lake waters.

Surface high pressure slowly moves east across the Dakotas today, exiting to the southeast tonight. Cloud cover continues to a forecast challenge, though the general trend is expected to be decreasing cloud cover through the day today as subsidence spreads across our area. While another cold night is forecast tonight with expected decreased cloud cover and our recent snowfall, increasing southerly return flow will keep temperatures from bottoming out, plus another incoming embedded wave may again result in some clouds materializing.

We remain in a northwest flow regime through next week, with embedded waves periodically moving through aloft. One of these waves and an associated strong cold front is favored to impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing milder temperatures on Tuesday (highs 25-35), snow chances Tuesday afternoon and Tues night, and another cold period on Wednesday (highs in the single digits and teens). Projected wind chills both Tue night and Wed night will again approach 25 below zero, perhaps as cold as 30 below zero Wed night before another milder airmass spreads east across the Northern Plains.

The rest of the period will see high uncertainty/low predictability as models will struggle with the smaller scale features this far out. NBM continues to show a near 20 degree spread in potential highs for the end of the week, with this range only increasing into the following weekend. This is typical for a northwest flow pattern in the winter with snow cover on the ground.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 125 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Low clouds with scattered light snow showers will linger into the early overnight hours bringing MVFR conditions. MVFR clouds could then linger across most central and eastern sites late tonight into Sunday morning, with some VFR clouds in the west. Areas with clearing skies tonight could also see some patchy fog, although confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. A gradual improvement to VFR cloud cover is then expected for Sunday, although some sites may see MVFR ceilings linger through the day. Mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday. Westerly winds will generally be found on Sunday, shifting to the south from west to east.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.