textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance of light rain across the south tonight. - Dry and warmer on Wednesday.

- Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state.

- Turning colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday with medium to high chances for light accumulating snow.

- Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A digging western U.S trough will bring a chance of rain and snow followed by much colder temperatures late in the workweek and into the weekend.

Currently, stratus has cleared in the west and continues to erode over central and eastern ND. Afternoon CU has developed over portions of western ND however. For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, there remains a low probability of an isolated shower due to the combination of daytime heating and forcing from an approaching shortwave currently over northeast Wyoming. Forecast soundings show a shallow and narrow region of instability so thunder is not anticipated and any weak shower activity that does develop will likely produce little if any qpf reaching the ground.

Quasi-zonal upper level flow continues through the day Wednesday before backing to the southwest in response to the upper level trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday should be an very pleasant day with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s with not a lot of wind by North Dakota standards.

The upper trough tracks into the northern Rockies Wednesday night bringing the initial chances for precipitation to northwest ND late Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday...The upper trough moves into the Northern High Plains Thursday, then traverses the forecast area Thursday nigh through Friday. At the surface a surface low develops over the Mondak region and is situated along the ND/SD border at 12Z Thursday. The low pushes east during the day with an elongated surface low from northern Minnesota into northeast Colorado by 00Z Friday. This will produce a very tight temperature gradient from northwest to southeast Thursday. Highs are expected to range from the lower 40s far north to the mid 70s far southeast. Winds will also be picking up during the day from northwest to southeast as the surface trough pushes east. There are some (mainly) chance pops in the west and far north Thursday but only the far northwest looks to be the most likely area to see more than a trace, maybe a few hundredths of an inch of rain. The best precipitation chances will occur Thursday night through Friday as the upper level trough moves through the forecast area.

A cluster analysis shows that there's a 60/40 split between a more compact wave moving through the forecast area versus a split wave with better energy north and south of the forecast area. It looks cold enough that both solutions will bring snow. It also looks like the forcing and moisture available are limited enough that qpf is pretty light with a broad swath of 0.10 to 0.15 from southwest ND into north central to northeast ND. The more compact wave would yield a more widespread swath of QPF, but overall the differing impacts between the two solutions looks to be minimal. Our latest NBM guidance is depicting a medium probability for an inch of snow extending from southwest into northwest and north central ND, with low to very low probabilities elsewhere. This is the 24 hour probability ending at 18Z Friday. Two inch probabilities then taper to low for this same area. Probabilities for at least a hundredth of an inch of snow are medium to high across all of western and central ND, so most will likely see a little light snow with this system.

It will breezy to windy as the rain changes to snow and temperatures will drop well below freezing over much of western and north central ND, so even though snow accumulations are not expected to amount to much, there could be some minor impacts to travel Thursday night into Friday morning where we do see the combination of snow and winds with freezing surfaces.

Once the snow ends on Friday the rest of the weekend into early next week looks to remain dry as upper level ridging builds over the region. It will be cold again Friday night into Saturday morning with Saturday morning lows possibly into the teens over parts of the west and north and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We do begin a gradual warm-up Saturday through early next week with highs climbing back into the 60s and lower 70s by Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

IFR ceilings at most TAF sites to begin the 18Z TAF period. KDIK has just cleared from the low stratus. Fog has dissipated and stratus will continue to clear through the afternoon, with KMOT and KJMS holding on to the stratus longer. KBIS and KXWA should clear out in the next couple of hours. Once stratus clears, expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. The exception is patchy fog possible in the James River Valley overnight, including KJMS, but probabilities are too low to include in the KJMS TAF. An isolated evening/overnight shower is possible southwest and south central tonight but coverage is too isolated to include in TAFS. Surface flow variable from westerly to southerly through the TAF period generally 15 knots or less.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.