textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak system tracking across the Northern Rockies will bring low to medium chances for light rain on Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected through the week.

- Seasonable to mild temperatures are expected through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 931 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Quiet weather continues across the region as the current forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 513 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the region as surface high pressure moving into the southwest. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave over central Montana, which is forecast to pass over the northwest Tuesday afternoon bringing forth showers. No major updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains quiet.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A shortwave currently nearing the Pacific Northwest coast will track across the Rockies and bring low to medium chances for rain, spreading west to east on Tuesday.

Dry and mild tonight with increasing high and mid level clouds. Overnight lows are forecast to be mainly in the 30s, but a few upper 20s are possible. On Tuesday, the weak wave tracking through the area could produce up to a tenth of an inch or so of liquid precip, but think most will see little if any precipitation as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain quite dry. The system is trending a bit slower than yesterday, which has a couple of implications for our forecast on Tuesday. First, with the slower arrival, temperatures will be warm enough for all rain by the time any precipitation arrives. Second, with the surface low lifting into west central ND by around 18 UTC Tuesday, warmer air should be able to sneak into southwest and south central ND, keeping temperatures a bit warmer than forecast. Will use an equal blend of the NBM/NBM90 for these areas. A little light rain may linger into Tuesday evening over the south central into eastern ND, but for the most part, dry conditions are expected Tuesday night.

A digging eastern U.S. trough will allow a shot of colder Canadian air to drop south through eastern half of North Dakota for the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. This brings quite a range of temperatures from cooler highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s east to mild readings in the mid to upper 50s west (around a 20 degree difference each day). As western ridging becomes more established over the state by the weekend, the warmer temperatures will spread east to include the entire forecast area. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be mainly in the 50s across all of western and central North Dakota. As we head into next week, we see the formation of a western U.S. trough, which, with downstream ridging should keep us mild through the early portion of the work week, but possibly followed by a more active pattern by mid-week as the trough decides how it's going to approach the Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the region through the latest TAF cycle. High clouds continue to stream into the area. Winds will remain light and variable with the western terminals seeing some afternoon gusts by tomorrow. There is around a 30 percent chance of SHRA for KXWA by the middle of the day. Rain could lead to temporary MVFR CIGs as the system passes.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.