textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the remainder of the week.

- Highs in the 70s and 80s through the workweek, warming into the 80s and low 90s for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A stray thundershower will exit far eastern Dickey County shortly. Otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies across the forecast area through the remainder of the night. No changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Isolated showers a few rumbles of thunder linger in the far southern James River Valley at the time of this late mid evening update. Weak radar returns are found just north of the International Border, wrapped around a surface low analyzed in eastern Saskatchewan. These showers may end up dipping further south over the next few hours, though should rapidly diminish quickly after sunset. Overall, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

With storms moving east out of the the forecast area, the Tornado Watch for Dickey County has been cancelled. Scattered showers and isolated rumbles of thunder will remain possible through evening, mainly in the northwest and over the James River Valley.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The effective cold frontal zone has moved southeast of our area of responsibility as of 23z, and is on a line from near Fargo to Aberdeen as of this writing. The low-level air mass in the far southern James River Valley, including Dickey County, has become cooler and more stable in this post-frontal air mass. Convection is ongoing in that immediate post-frontal air mass, and is apt to be somewhat elevated, but a marginal severe-storm risk is still ongoing. As radar trends allow we will likely cancel the Tornado Watch in Dickey County in the next 1 to 2 hours. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update cycle, with low chances of showers and storms continuing this evening in central ND, and added into the forecast in northwestern ND. In the latter area, cyclonic flow associated with the upper- level low in southern Canada is producing some low-topped and weak showers.

UPDATE Issued at 427 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Quick update for Tornado Watch issuance in Dickey County. The outflow from weak showers and storms has caused the effective cold frontal boundary to progress eastward quickly, and as of 21z is roughly along a line from Valley City to far eastern LaMoure County, southwest to Ellendale. Ahead of this effective front, MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg is present, though the shading from ongoing and upstream weak convection has resulted in somewhat marginal low-level lapse rates, and midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep either. This thermodynamic setting is tending to result in only a slow uptick in intensity of updrafts, which means the window of opportunity for severe storms in the far southern James River Valley of ND may be a bit limited. The KABR VWP hodograph shows midlevel winds have become strong enough to support effective-layer shear on the order of 40 kt, sufficient for midlevel mesocyclone development, though 0-1-km SRH is minimal at this point. The main threat in Dickey County is apt to be from large hail and damaging winds, and it may be only through about 23z or 00z.

The severe threat in the remainder of central ND is diminishing as the cold front continues advancing eastward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Low pressure still located over southern Saskatchewan will begin kicking off to the east today and tonight. An associated stationary front had been draped north to south through the middle of North Dakota, however has since resumed its eastward push as a cold front. This should pass through most of the forecast area by sunset, and perhaps even earlier depending on if the front stalls again or not. Severe weather is possible ahead of the fropa.

As would be expected based on where the frontal boundary is present, the highest dewpoints, or rather those in the 60s, persist mainly east of Highway 83 with some exceptions depending on exact location of observational equipment. These higher dewpoints will allow for increasing instability this afternoon, which is progged to coincide with deep layer shear of around 35 to 45 kts. Similar to yesterday, with a north to south orientated frontal boundary and bulk shear generally with a southwesterly component, a clustered storm mode if favored overall. Although there may be a brief period where vectors are more perpendicular with the front, which could allow for discrete cells to develop out ahead. With all this, golf ball hail and 60 mph winds remain the most probable hazard for where the slight risk is (southeast), while smaller hail and 60 mph winds remain the primary hazard for the marginal risk.

Once thunderstorms clear out, mostly dry conditions are favored through Thursday before additional precipitation chances return to the southwest. Currently, other than the far southwestern corner, no severe weather is outlooked in the state and remains south. That said, one CAM does bring thunderstorm activity as far north as the I94 corridor Thursday afternoon, so will need to monitor the latest trends to see if the threat ultimately shifts a bit further north. Friday could also see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, though severe activity is once again favored to remain south.

Beyond Friday, a trough is favored to dig into the west CONUS, which would put the Northern Plains into southwesterly flow aloft. This could bring the return of severe weather this weekend, especially to eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Beyond that, expect continued periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms next week with at least low severe weather chances over parts of the forecast area most days.

The other story is temperatures, which are expected to trend warmer through the weekend resulting in highs mostly in the 80s to low 90s on Saturday and Sunday. Monday is favored to return to more seasonable temperatures with another warming trend for the middle of next week. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the mid 40s west to mid 50s east. After which, most nights will see lows in the 50s, with occasional upper 40s or low 60s possible at times.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period. Generally light and variable winds through the period. Clear to partly cloudy skies overnight but with increasing mid and high level clouds through the day Thursday. Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity in the far south during morning and early afternoon, then better chances of showers and thunderstorms moving into the southwest later afternoon and into the evening hours.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.