textproduct: Bismarck
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dense fog may develop tonight and linger into Thursday morning over western North Dakota.
- Dry conditions continue through the weekend into early in the work week.
- Seasonal temperatures to close out the work week, then a gradual warming trend for the weekend into early in the upcoming work week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Current surface analysis places high over Manitoba stretching southward into the Dakotas, while low remains over the lower Midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies, with north-northwest flow over the northern plains. Over our area, low clouds cover northwest into much of central North Dakota, with some persistant fog continuing to affect parts of north central/northwest North Dakota generally around the Minot area, though this has been improving over the past hour or two.
For tonight, cloud cover will linger over much of the area, but to the west guidance continues to indicate fog development later this evening, remaining through the overnight hours.
On Thursday, with the exception of the fog lingering into the morning over the west, a quiet day is on tap with the ridge to the west keeping us in northwesterly flow.
Ridge pushes to the east as we get into the weekend and early next week which will keep dry weather in place, but will result in a gradual warming trend. By the start of the next work week, high temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above average will be possible. As we close in on mid-week, a Pacific trough will push easterly, bringing rain chances to the forecast.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1220 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
LIFR to IFR ceilings and visibility in fog will continue into this afternoon over parts of northwest and central North Dakota. Gradual improvement is expected later this afternoon, though many areas will remain IFR to MVFR through the day into tonight. Later tonight, fog is expected to develop again over parts of western North Dakota, with IFR to LIFR visibility and ceilings expected.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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