textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued below normal temperatures for today, along with gusty winds and scattered rain and snow showers (20-40 percent chance) during the day.

- Temperatures trend warmer through this weekend and into the middle of next week, along with mainly dry weather conditions.

- Active weather pattern is then favored after Wednesday of next week, along with a cooling trend into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Currently, strong northwest flow aloft with a long wave upper trough axis just to our east. Unseasonably cold temperatures early this morning, with most sites in the teens and low 20s. A few sites out west are actually only a few degrees from setting record lows for this calendar date!

Warming trend starts today, with daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer compared to Friday, with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Within the northwest flow aloft, models depict a fairly well-defined embedded wave diving southward out of Canada and across the region today, along with left-exit region jet forcing moving over a strong baroclinic zone in place across the Dakotas. This forcing will coincide with several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE to result in diurnally driven scattered rain/snow showers from late morning through early this evening most areas. Another breezy day as well, with still 25-30 knots within the mixed layer available as we warm. Shower activity would likely help in bringing some of the stronger winds to the surface.

Northwest flow aloft on Sunday transitions to more quasi-zonal Monday and Tuesday, ramping up the warming trend and resulting in a dry weather forecast. Warmest day will be on Wednesday, when broad ridging amplifies over the Northern Plains ahead of a strong upper level trough developing into the western CONUS. Ahead of this trough, a lee side surface low quickly spins up on Wednesday, increasing southerly flow and WAA into the region. High temperatures into the lower 80s across the south are forecast. As south-southwest flow aloft develops and increases Wed into Wed night, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the Dakotas. Latest NBM/WPC doesn't have thunder in the forecast, but would anticipate this being added if current trends hold.

An active and cooler weather pattern continues to be favored for the end of the work week and into next weekend, with highs in the 40s and chances for snow mixing with rain returning to the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

An area of low VFR/MVFR ceilings continue to push east over eastern North Dakota early this morning, impacting KJMS for a few hours before trending SKC by around 10Z. Clear conditions elsewhere across west and central ND. Saturday will see a mix of SCT to BKN to perhaps OVC clouds at times. Ceilings for these clouds will generally be VFR although could lower to MVFR at times. Scattered light rain or snow showers are also forecast during the day Saturday. Added a PROB30 group to TAFs for this. Gusty northwest winds expected again for Saturday, decreasing Sat evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.