textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through Friday, and are then favored to trend cooler next weekend.

- Windy with low to medium chances (20% to 50%) for a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain tonight. Another chance (30% to 60%) for mainly snow (rain/snow mix southwest) on Wednesday.

- Higher uncertainties for precipitation next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Currently, quasi-zonal flow over the Northern Plains with broad upper level ridging centered over the Rockies and a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS. South/southeasterly return flow over the Dakotas this afternoon, with a steady southerly sfc wind (strongest central and east). A mix of clouds and sun with upper level clouds southwest, mid level clouds north, and a clear sky currently southeast. Milder airmass has built into the region with the flow aloft and with the southerly flow/WAA ahead of a clipper system set to move through tonight.

Mid level wave/clipper along with an upper level jet streak will push an associated sfc low and cold front through the region tonight, resulting in a swath of light precipitation developing south with the FROPA. Models continue to indicate a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and all rain, dependent on sfc temperatures and ice aloft. Latest BUFKIT has trended away from the freezing rain potential. Regardless, forcing aloft is minimal so not expecting much moisture reaching the surface with this wave/FROPA. Gusty northwest winds develop in the wake of the front, along with cooler temperatures moving into the region. Tuesday temperatures will likely be steady or falling during the daytime hours. Wind headlines are possible, though right now magnitudes look marginal advisory levels with BUFKIT mixing layer analysis showing up to 35 knots available, and the stronger winds most likely occurring right with the FROPA.

A west-northwesterly flow pattern will be in place for the remainder of the week, keeping temperatures at or above normal through Friday. Another S/WV and frontal passage occur later Tue night through Wednesday, bringing another decent chance for precipitation to the Dakotas. All snow is expected outside of the southwest, where a rain/snow mix continues to be forecast. Stronger forcing with this wave with models showing decent Div Q/lower level frontogenesis linkage, so a bit more moisture/QPF is expected upwards to around a tenth of an inch or so. Given the banding potential, localized higher precip amounts are possible, and indeed the latest CAMs have trending towards this with a few of the high res solutions showing pockets of 2 inch snowfall amounts.

Afterwards, ensembles depict a broad troughing pattern over Canada into the northern CONUS, with a steady west/northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Models also favor a stronger cold FROPA Fri-Fri night, trending temperatures colder and below normal for this coming weekend. Snow will likely accompany the cold front along and behind, and NBM has accordingly increased POPs Fri night through Sunday. Beyond this weekend, large spread in ensemble guidance regarding any precipitation chances, along with NBM still showing a 20-35 degree high temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles. Overall though we look to trend warmer, just uncertain to what degree.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions through the majority of the 18Z period. A weather disturbance and cold frontal passage will bring a chance for snow, freezing rain, and rain to western and central North Dakota tonight, with MVFR ceilings possible. Opted to maintain PROB30 groups for the precipitation. Winds will be southerly today, and will transition to west/northwest tonight into Tuesday along and behind the cold front with peak gusts to around 35kts. Low level wind shear at around 1K Ft AGL will be possible after 00Z and at times tonight ahead of the front.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.