textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Friday into this weekend, with strong to severe storms possible.

- Temperatures remain at or slightly below normal through Friday, then will be closer to normal this weekend.

- Temperatures trend warmer next week, with low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The forecast for tonight remains mainly on track. Did expand patchy fog coverage farther northwest with CAMs indicating some development later this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 958 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A few lingering showers remain over the northern JRV this evening. Updated pops to account for these. Also added a mention of patchy fog for portions of south central ND and the James River Valley. Most bufkit soundings show quite a bit of drier air at the surface. Soundings around the JRV though, did indicated some potential for patchy fog early Thursday morning. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the northwest and north central and then down into the northern portions of the James River Valley and eastward. Made some minor adjustments to pops, spreading then a little farther south. Otherwise no significant updates needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Quasi-zonal flow will continue across the Northern Rockies spilling into the Northern Plains. An upper level low continues to spin over Northern Minnesota resulting in scattered cumulus field across the state. This cyclonic flow aloft will also lead to a low chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the northern and eastern half of the state. Clouds will clear out tonight across the west as surface high pressure moves down from Canada. However, some low clouds may continue to linger across eastern North Dakota. Surface high pressure will lead to cooler low temperatures tonight out west dropping down into the lower 40s.

Surface high pressure will move off to the east Thursday allowing a shortwave to move through the southwest by the late evening hours. This system will move through much of central North Dakota Friday morning. Another round of convection is forecast to go off the higher terrain of the High Plains Friday afternoon moving into the west Friday evening. There are some low chances for strong to severe storms in the southwest. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 60s and 70s warming into the 80s by the weekend.

A strong upper level low is forecast to dig across the Mountain West this weekend. This will bring forth a strong wave across the Northern Plains. A return of Gulf moisture and breezy low level jet will increase the instability across the region. Machine learning programs like CSU and NSSL are highlighting Saturday for a decent shot of severe weather. The synoptic set up supports severe weather Saturday at this time. The NBM continues to carry high PoPs through the weekend, but the qpf continues to trend down as NBM and long range models have trouble resolving convective precipitation far out. However, there is still a good shot of moisture across the state this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 06Z TAF period, with generally VFR conditions through the period. There may be a period of MVFR ceilings again this morning in some areas, especially from east of Minot to Jamestown. The threat for fog looks to be low, but also can not be ruled out. Light and variable winds shift to more east/southeast for Thursday, generally 15 kts or less.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.