textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near average temperatures through the weekend, warming to above average early next week.

- Breezy winds this afternoon and again Monday. - Mostly dry next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Breezy northwesterly winds in the wake of a weak cold frontal boundary will continue through this afternoon before rapidly diminishing this evening. Winds will become light and often variable overnight, while initially clear skies should allow for efficient radiational cooling to start. Though incoming high clouds will likely limit temperature drops tonight. While the NBM does saturate much of the forecast area to around 100 percent, this is likely due to the dynamics of averaging out models within such a model blend. In other words, deterministic guidance maintains a decent dewpoint depression. In addition, near-surface winds aloft remain breezy which usually helps prohibit or at least limit fog development. All in all, fog is generally not expected tonight, though localized shallow fog cannot be completely ruled out. Especially in locations where incoming high clouds fail to materialize.

Lows tonight should generally remain above freezing and in the 30s to low 40s. However, similar to fog development, localized freezing in traditionally colder spots is entirely possible, especially in areas where incoming high clouds fail to materialize. A warming trend is then expected through early next week as a west CONUS ridge builds and advects warmer air across the region. This will result in highs ranging from the mid 60s in northeastern North Dakota to the mid 80s in the southwest on Monday. Warmer air is then likely to move into eastern North Dakota on Tuesday, with 70s returning to the southwest. After which, a slight statewide cooling trend is expected through midweek. Lows are favored to generally remain above freezing through the next week.

The NBM maintains a completely dry forecast through next week. However, WAA could result in a few showers Sunday night into Monday. This is a low probability scenario overall due to discrepancies between models in regard to mid-level moisture availability, with an overall dry moisture profile favored. In addition, potential shortwave energy Tuesday into Wednesday could produce a round of showers. Beyond Wednesday, the ridge is favored to flatten resulting in northwesterly flow aloft through the remainder of the week, which also frequently produces low precipitation chances that are difficult to forecast well in advance. Bottom line is that mostly dry conditions are expected through the next week, but a few weak waves could produce light rain/showers at times when all is said and done.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Breezy northwesterly winds will continue this afternoon before rapidly diminishing this evening, and becoming light and often variable. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.