textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy to Very windy conditions are expected this afternoon through Friday afternoon over much of western and central North Dakota with northwest winds gusting up to 65 mph. - Snow showers are possible this afternoon, but will become likely this evening across all of western through central North Dakota. Significantly reduced visibility is possible while snow is falling.

- Friday through this weekend, expect cooler temperatures with below average temperatures northeast to near average temperatures southwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A difficult forecast remains for this afternoon through Friday. As surface low pressure churns from south central Canada towards the Great Lakes region this afternoon through Friday, the pressure gradient will continue tightening. Multiple rounds of defined CAA, along with elevated lapse rates, will favor very strong winds developing. Though the strongest winds may come in multiple pushes. An initial one this afternoon, then potentially a stronger one tonight through Friday morning. One limiting factor remains the lack of an enhanced pressure bubble. There is a very well defined pressure bubble progged to pass through southeastern Montana, Wyoming, and possibly far western South Dakota this afternoon. However, it will have little influence on North Dakota. Then a moderate, albeit not super impressive, pressure bubble is progged to pass through north central and eastern North Dakota tonight. Though it also is likely to trail the strongest CAA. As such, no changes to headlines are expected for this afternoon.

Further complicating the forecast is snow shower potential. Somewhat widespread light returns are present over the forecast area. However, no obvious significant reductions in visibility have occurred yet, nor even snow reports (a few obs have reported light rain). Even in the southwest, where enhanced returns have developed over DOT cameras near Beach, no falling precipitation has been observed so far. Either way, most CAMs maintain some form of scattered snow showers for this afternoon that don't last particularly long. Then for this evening through Friday have two main outcomes. One is more widespread light snow that could accumulate to an inch or two over a wide swath of the forecast area. The other outcome is more streaky snow showers that would be more limited in coverage. The former could lead to more widespread visibility reductions that require a more widespread Winter Weather Advisory. The latter could lead to more localized issues where it's possible that no long duration headline is needed, but a snow squall or two is possible should a more enhanced band/snow shower develop.

Windy conditions should persist for Friday night, though should begin to diminish from northwest to southeast. As high pressure works into the western Dakotas and eastern Montana, a loosening pressure gradient should help winds continue to relax. With cooler air filtering into the area Friday night, minimum apparent temperatures across much of the state are forecast to range from 30 to 35 degrees below zero, with even cooler wind chills in the northeast. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for Friday night at some point. Winds may become light across most of the area Saturday, though windy conditions and additional light snow chances may return Sunday as a clipper system dives towards the Great Lakes Region. An additional clipper or two could pass through during the middle of next week leading to additional windy conditions and possibly more light snow chances.

One thing to note is that the west CONUS ridge seems unlikely to break down through at least the first half of next week. The eastern extent is favored to be pushed further west which would aid in the return of more seasonable temperatures that are perhaps below average at times. If that indeed winds up being the case, expect the continued trend of much cooler temperatures northeast compared to the southwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Westerly winds will become very strong this afternoon as they take on a more northwesterly component. Gusts of 50 kts, with localized stronger gusts possible, are expected at times through the period, especially in the western half of the state. Scattered light snow showers are also expected this afternoon and especially this evening through Friday morning. Significant reductions in visibility will occur while any snow is falling. However, with the lack of a blowable snowpack prior to this system, visibility reductions may not last for an extended period at many locations. Overall uncertainty in regard to timing, snow amounts, and duration of reduced visibility is high.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NDZ001- 009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NDZ002- 010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday for NDZ003>005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.