textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20 percent chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. The risk for severe weather is very low, but a few storms may become strong in central North Dakota this afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable temperatures are favored to continue into next week, with highs mostly in the 80s.

- Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday, then low chances for showers and thunderstorms return to close out the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Currently, west CONUS ridge maintains northwesterly flow aloft over the state. Embedded shortwave energy is currently passing through the state from northwest to southeast and may produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While 1000 to 1500 J/kg of skinny CAPE is expected this afternoon across central North Dakota, mainly east of the Highway 83, a lack of adequate deep layer shear should keep the severe weather risk very low. Still, a strong storm or two cannot be completely ruled out.

The current outlook maintains a fairly stable temperature forecast through this weekend and into early next week with seasonable highs mostly in the 80s. However, deterministic models suggest the aforementioned ridge will eventually slide eastward later this weekend. When this happens, there will likely be a day or two where temperatures wind up warmer than currently forecast (Monday seems favored at this time). However, deterministics are also in fair agreement that an upper Canadian low will quickly break the ridge back down.

Turning back to precipitation chances, low predictability showers and thunderstorms are often possible under northwest flow aloft. Therefore, will continue to message mostly dry conditions through Saturday, but acknowledge that there could be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday. Saturday night through Sunday night is when more widespread low precipitation chances return to the forecast. That is when flow aloft switches relatively briefly to the southwest resulting in modest WAA as the aforementioned ridge approaches the Northern Plains. After which, another shortwave may slide through the region. Currently neither CSU nor SPC are outlooking severe weather for Sunday. However, there could be a narrow corridor of elevated instability and shear that could produce a window for severe weather. That said, a lot of it will depend on timing of any forcing mechanisms.

One final note is that smoke is visible on satellite imagery across much of the western half of North Dakota. Based on model data and upstream observations, impacts from near-surface smoke seem unlikely. And if there were to be any visibility reductions, they should remain primarily in the far southwest. However, elevated smoke will likely result in milky skies across much of the state this afternoon and evening, before clearing off tonight. Another round of elevated smoke is possible Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the most part, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. However, shortwave energy passing across the forecast area from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening could produce isolated to scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms possible. Overall, confidence is low and spatial coverage looks limited. Therefore, left out of TAFs at this time. A little near-surface smoke may enter the far southwest this evening, though visibility will likely remain VFR.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.