textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing temperatures with a few isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected today.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and Friday evening, with hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph the main threats. An isolated tornado is possible.

- Very hot conditions expected to return Friday through the weekend, with high temperatures and heat index values around 100 degrees.

- The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions could bring near critical to critical fire weather conditions Friday and again on Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 959 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Visibility is improving in the southwest as fog rapidly dissipates early this morning. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Some low clouds and patchy fog are developing across southwestern and some central portions of the state this morning. This should overall be short lived, yet have added in some patchy fog mention through mid morning. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Surface high will move away from the state today brining a warming southerly flow. Look for temperatures to continue to warm into the 80s and lower 90s today. Some weak instability combined with a weak upper level wave could bring a few isolated thunderstorms across the north this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile portions of the southwest also see weak instability and are close to a monsoonal wave in Wyoming. This could result in isolated thunderstorms across the southwest this afternoon and evening. Although shear is modest today, the lack of instability and stronger lift should limit the severe weather threat. Elevated instability looks to remain through the night which could continue the isolated thunderstorm chances. Areas closer to the surface warm front and mid level wave in the north have slight to chance PoPs through the night as a result. An isolated stronger storm is possible in these areas tonight, depending on where the low level jet sets up. Hail and gusty winds would be the main threat for any nocturnal thunderstorms tonight. Also look for mild lows in the 60s tonight.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday. SPC has increased the severe weather threat to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of central and eastern North Dakota. Surface to 850 layer showing a weak trough moving across the area through the day. Ahead of this along the warm front could be some morning convection with perhaps an isolated stronger storm. As the mention trough moves through Friday afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, if the cap in place can be broken. If the cap is broken, there looks to be a weak cool boundary push out the warm front during passage of the trough. A pseudo triple point sets up in this case, mainly in the area of the Slight Risk. This feature results in higher amounts of MUCape in a modest to high sheared environment. Right now the shear vector would favor multicluster cells, although depending on how the boundaries set up there could be supercells at least initially. DCAPE looks high, and model sounding showing some inverted-v signatures. Thus the main hazards with this setup is hail to the size of golf balls and winds to 70 mph. There is a low chance for tornadoes especially where the mentioned triple point sets up. This depends on storm mode being supercells, and some lowering of LCLs from storm interactions. SPC has a 2 percent chance of tornadoes thus will message an isolated tornado possible. High temperatures Friday will continue to warm into the 90s and 100s. Heat Index values near 100 are possible, although do not look very widespread at this point. Heat Risk and Wet Bulb Global Temperature Products also look to start increasing the heat threat, yet not as high as the upcoming weekend. Thus will hold off on any heat products. Of concern could be some near critical to critical fire weather conditions in the southwest as dewpoints lower in these areas and the mentioned disturbance brings some breezy westerly winds. Fuels and how many hours of critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain thus will hold off on fire products for now. Lastly, the west northwest flow from the mentioned disturbance could bring some wildfire smoke aloft and to the surface on Friday. Confidence was just short to add in the forecast at this time, yet will also need to be monitored. Precipitation diminishes Friday night with lows in the 60s expected.

Dangerous heat is then expected for this weekend, along with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Saturday still looks to be the hottest day of the weekend, with Sunday only slightly cooler. Widespread highs in the 90s to 100s are expected each day. Heat products continue to be evaluated yet are being held off for now due to uncertainty with dewpoints this weekend. Forecast still showing dryer air with this warmup could limit the Heat Index values compared to the last extreme heat event. Although, forecast highs near 105 degrees will make reaching Heat Advisory criteria a likely occurrence this weekend. A weak surface low cold bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours this weekend. Shear and instability look limited, although CSU-MLP is showing some low chances for at least isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend. This broad upper level ridge looks to linger across the western and central US into next week keeping well above normal temperatures. Depending on the strength of the ridge, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible each day. Low afternoon humidity values could also bring some increased fire weather concerns into next week, especially if any breezy days are forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are generally expected through the period. However, there are a few possible exceptions. First, there are low chances for showers and thunderstorms in the northwest and far southwest this afternoon and evening. Second, milky skies are expected across much of the area from elevated smoke. Of greater note, some near-surface smoke could begin to enter western North Dakota Friday morning, though confidence in visibility impacts are too low to include in any TAFs at this time. There are also some hints at patchy fog in parts of central ND tonight, though confidence in fog also remains low.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.