textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this evening for all of North Dakota.

- Strong winds will persist today through this evening. Patchy to areas of blowing dust have also returned to the northern half of the state.

- Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into the evening across the north, otherwise dry conditions will continue through Saturday.

- High chances (60 to 80 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. The highest chances are during the day Sunday. There is a chance of Isolated severe weather in the southern James River Valley.

- Near to below freezing temperatures return to the northwest tonight. The highest probabilities for low temperatures below freezing temperatures are Monday and Tuesday nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An upper level low continues to spin across Manitoba. Windy conditions continue across the state this afternoon as strong winds aloft mix down to the surface. Winds are forecast to diminish this evening across the area. The strongest winds are across the northern half of the state. These stronger winds have kicked up dust across southern Manitoba and portions of Northern North Dakota. There have been some slight visibility reductions observed in the Rugby Rolla area. Windy and dry conditions have lead to critical fire weather conditions across the state, (read the fire weather discussion for more information). High temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the 70s to lower 80s across the state. Surface high pressure is forecast to move across southern Saskatchewan tonight helping reduce winds. Surface high pressure will also cause temperatures to drop down into the mid 30s to the mid 40s tonight which could lead to areas of frost. across the northwest Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been issued for portions of the northwest.

Tomorrow, temperatures will cool a few degrees in the north while the the south will remain in the mid 70s. The warmer temperatures across the south are from a subtle upper level ridge that will increase heights and traverse across the region tomorrow. Saturday a broad trough is forecast to dig across Western CONUS. This will place the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region Saturday night into Sunday. There is a chance for some stronger storms clipping the James River Valley early Sunday. Isolated severe storms should not be ruled out Sunday across the southern James River Valley. This upper level system will bring widespread rain across the state with the southeast seeing the highest amounts. A secondary trough is forecast to move through the region bring in some more precipitation through Tuesday morning. There is a high chance of widespread 0.25 of an inch of rain across much of the state. We will see how this play out as the high resolution model data starts to come in.

This wetter pattern will also bring cooler temperatures to North Dakota. There maybe even a chance of snow Monday night. Highs will drop down into the upper 40s to 50s Sunday through Tuesday with even the possibility of freezing conditions Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Temperatures could rebound by the middle of the week as another subtle ridge moves across the region. The extended ensemble guidance does have a more active pattern by the end of the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the state. Westerly winds persist across the region with gusty conditions at all terminals. There is some blowing dust being lofted across the northern half of the state, however there is not dust impacting any TAF terminals at this time. Winds are forecast to decrease this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI May 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon as relative humidity is down around 14 percent to around 25 percent. Windy west winds around 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are possible this afternoon as well. Thunderstorms have been observed across the northern half of the state this afternoon. These thunderstorms can cause strong gusty erratic winds that can impact any fires. Dry lightning is also possible from these thunderstorms, due to the elevated nature of cloud bases and the lack of precipitation, which could start new fires. Overnight recoveries will improve to excellent across the north and fair across the south.

Saturday is forecast to have minimum relative humidity around 18 to 25 percent across much of the state and 30 percent along the International Border. However, winds will remain light through the day picking up by the evening and overnight hours. The strongest winds do not overlap with the driest conditions although there could be near critical conditions along the North and South Dakota border for a few hours around sunset.

A system if forecast to move through the region Saturday night through Tuesday. Widespread rain chances are forecast to bring subtle relief to the area. Next week minimum relative humidity is forecast to increase due to cooler conditions.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-055- 056. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ001>003- 009-010-055. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ019-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-057>062.