textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- The highest snow accumulations today through Wednesday night of 5 to 10 inches is expected along and north of Highway 2, with locally higher amounts possible along the International Border. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected north and east of the Missouri River.

- Strong winds will continue through Wednesday, these winds will create periods of low visibilities in falling snow. Patchy blowing snow is also possible.

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected across portions of southwest and south central North Dakota late Wednesday through late Thursday.

- A rapid drop from above normal high temperatures down to near below normal temperatures Wednesday through the weekend is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently a large trough around an upper level low in Washington State is present, with diffluent flow over the Northern Plains. In the trough there is a negatively tilted trough axis swinging through the Central Plains right now. Downstream in southern Canada is a small ridge. At the surface a double low pressure center is in eastern Montana and southern South Dakota. There are returns across most of the state on radar but cloud bases are currently too high for rain to reach the ground. Winds are remaining very strong, with gust around 50 mph in the northwest. Winds are out of the east with the low pressure center just slightly southwest of the state and driven by the pressure gradient force.

Through this evening rain showers will start to move into the state from the south, and the strong winds will continue. There is actually some uncertainty in the rain snow line as the CAMs this morning shifted the snow more southeast. This is likely due to that upper level trough axis swinging up and timed with the cooler air. As of now, the transition to snow looks to be around 7pm in the north central as surface temperatures drop after sunset, and precipitation cooling effect. The rest of the area looks to transition to snow closer to midnight central time when the cold air on the backside slides in. This will also maintain the strong winds as the CAA and a pressure bubble continues to support wind gusts near 50mph. As of now model soundings do not support needing a High Wind Warning in the southwest, but something to keep an eye on this evening. The southwest will have the strongest CAA and highest pressure bubble. Snow will then continue through most of Wednesday, with patchy blowing snow possible as well.

We have multiple headlines out; Winter Storm Warning across the north, Winter Weather Advisory south of that, and then Wind Advisory across the south. It is possible that the Warning will need to be expanding into the far northern James River Valley if the snow shifts again, or the timing of the rain/snow changes to earlier in the evening.

Snow amounts, like stated above, are hanging on the fact that there is uncertainty in the rain/snow line and the possible more shifts of snow. The majority of the snow will fall and accumulated north and east of the Missouri River, with the highest amounts in the north central and northeast parts of the state. Strong Fgen will enhance the snowfall in the north central to James River Valley area, this could very well boost snowfall totals in these areas. Q-vector divergence also lines up with this Fgen. This goes back to the previous statement of the Warning possibly needing to be expanded south.

Our current forecast for the 25th/75th totals in the north are 5 to 10 inches, increasing to maybe 12 inches closer to Langdon, ND. South of that is about 1 to 3 inches, and far southern ND around a trace. Again, we are starting to see a trend towards more snow and a shift to the south and east. Continue to monitor our forecast and social media to watch this as it evolves. The remaining uncertiantly is perfectly captured in the snow map as the lower numbers show more rain and the higher numbers show that possible shift occuring.

The NBM has not fully latched on to that idea but it is known to be a run or two behind on changes like this. The HREF most notable has had this change since the 12z run. NBM probabilities are also lagging behind. For 6 inches its 60 to 80 percent in the Warning area and then quickly drops to zero in the south central. The only area for 8 inches thats of note is 80 percent in the Turtle Mountain region. For 2 inches its 50 percent near the Missouri River and east, to 100 percent in the north central and northeast.

Another weak low pressure system will follow suit and bring more snow to the state Wednesday night into Thursday. This will mainly just affect the southwest where a trace to 3 inch of snow could fall. The rest of the week looks quiet before another weak clipper low could move through, bringing light snow to the north. Northwest flow will continue through Monday, keeping temperatures below normal. Lows could be below zero with highs in the single digits to low 20s. Early next week the pattern could change to a ridge with warmer air moving back in.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

MVFR to VFR this afternoon, changing to all MVFR to IFR with rain showers by evening. Winds are gusting from the east up to 45 kts, especially northwest. Overnight the rain will change to all snow creating visibilities as low as 1SM at times as the strong winds continue. Winds will change to the northwest in the late morning from a cold front. Conditions will improve west to east Wednesday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ001>005-009>013. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Wednesday night for NDZ017>023-025. Wind Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ031>034-040>045. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ035>037. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ046>048- 050-051.