textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions over far western North Dakota today into this evening, near critical conditions for the remainder of western into north central North Dakota.

- High temperatures today about 20 to 25 degrees above average.

- Widespread precipitation chances return this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

No significant changes for the midday update. Winds have picked up over the far west, and will increase over central ND in the next hour or two. We will see increasing high level clouds from south to north through the afternoon, in addition to the thin high clouds covering the forecast area.

UPDATE Issued at 937 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Just some minor changes to sky cover and massaged temperatures a bit. Overall, no significant changes.

UPDATE Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Quiet weather continues over the area. No changes needed to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the Northern and Canadian Rockies, with high over Ontario into the Great Lakes region. Upper level analysis places lows over California and over Quebec, with ridge stretching up through the northern plains and upper Midwest into the Canadian prairies. Over our area, quiet weather continues.

For today, another hot day is on tap as blocked thermal ridge continues its influence over the area. High temperatures are expected to run about 20 to 25 degrees above average. South- southeasterly winds will be on the increase today between the two aforementioned surface features, with gusts to around 40 mph expected over western North Dakota. The gusty winds will combine with quite dry conditions (humidity values dipping into the mid teens to lower 20s) over far western North Dakota to create critical fire weather conditions. Near critical fire weather conditions expected over the remainder of western into north central North Dakota, while over most of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley green-up has progressed to a point where concerns are being limited.

On Friday, aforementioned upper low pushes into the Great Basin with upper ridge starting to nudge a bit east. With that said, its thermal influence remains with highs still expected to push into the 80s to lower 90s. Some question remains as to the amount of low level moisture increase over the area, but with the increasing winds due to the deepening surface low to the west, fire weather concerns remain.

Changes come late Friday into Saturday as upper low pushes east over the central Rockies and upper ridge nudges further east, resulting in southerly flow over our area. In the meantime, surface low slides over eastern Montana/Wyoming, with moisture increasing over our area. Expect showers to likely spread over the area, particularly later in the day Saturday. Modest instability in place, mainly over southwest North Dakota, will result in some thunderstorms, but with rather low deep layer shear expect the severe threat to be rather limited, but cant rule something briefly reaching severe limits in the far southwest where SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) in place. With respect to temperatures, expect a modest cool-down but with high temperatures still running about 10 to 15 degrees above average.

As we go forward into the upcoming week, region looks to remain in a generally active pattern with the upper low hanging around the region and blocked ridge to the east, therefore a daily chance for precipitation. Temperatures remain seasonably mild with NBM 25th/75th high temperature percentiles remaining above average.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Strong southeast winds over wester and central ND this afternoon will diminish this evening, then pick up again mid to late morning on Friday. There will be a period of LLWS at KDIK, KBIS and KMOT overnight with strong southerly winds aloft. High clouds expected today, with mid and high clouds tonight. Lower VFR clouds push into the state from the south Friday, with a low potential for MVFR clouds pushing into the south central, including KBIS at the end of the 18Z TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.