textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy to very windy conditions are expected through this afternoon over much of western and central North Dakota with northwest winds gusting up to 65 mph. - Snow will continue through much of today. Winds combined with periods of moderate snow may bring significantly reduced visibility at times.

- Today through this weekend, expect cooler temperatures with below average temperatures northeast to near average temperatures southwest.

UPDATE

Issued at 901 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

We added in a row of counties, from Divide through Hettinger, to the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory. The Williston radar reveals some streaks of light snow moving through the northwest right now, and public reports have confirmed significantly reduced visibility from this additional falling snow. This is also being aided by a localized area of wind gusts of 60 to 65 mph, including an NDAWN station in northeast Montana, Crosby RAWS site, and the Williston Airport. Mesoanalysis shows this region is on the edge of a bubble of additional height rises, and is on the west side of an embedded upper low that is visible on satellite imagery and is currently dropping through north central North Dakota. Across the rest of the forecast area, headlines remain unchanged. We continue to see light snow falling and combined with winds gusting generally to 55 mph, visibilities are significantly reduced, especially in open country. We encourage everyone to continue to check NDDOT road reports if traveling today.

UPDATE Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Snow, mainly light, but moderate at times continues across most of western and central North Dakota. There is a little break from the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley, but another shortwave spinning over southwest Manitoba should help to fill that area in as it drops south through central/eastern ND today. Widespread blowing snow is expected to continue this morning over much of the forecast area as very strong winds continue. A gradual decrease in winds is expected this afternoon and snow will also taper from west to east this afternoon, but light, non-accumulating snow will linger into the evening. It will remain windy this evening with patchy blowing and drifting snow. As very cold air settles over the area tonight, with windy conditions continuing, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for later this evening through Saturday morning. Only a couple minor tweaks to pops this morning, otherwise no changes to the forecast or ongoing Advisories at this time. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Widespread snow continues across pretty much all of western and central North Dakota as of 4 AM this morning. Northwest winds have been gusting around 50 to 65 mph over western ND the past few hours, and 45 to 55 mph over central ND. The combination of the very strong winds and falling snow is producing areas of reduced visibilities, down to a half mile at times. Visibilities have been quite variable but we think low enough at times to warrant a Winter Weather Advisory, and we did issue an advisory earlier this morning, which will continue through mid- afternoon. Total snow accumulations should remain in the 1-2 inch range for most areas. Storm totals could approach 3 inches in a few areas though. Currently the latest guidance through today would indicate the I-94 corridor from Bismarck to Glen Ullin could see a few spots with 2-3 inches, and also in the Turtle Mountains. Most of the accumulating snow should be over by midday, but as snow accumulates, and with continued strong winds, blowing and drifting snow could remain and issue into the afternoon.

No changes are anticipated with the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory. Bufkit Rap soundings indicate the potential for gusts to around 60 mph should diminish in the northwest through this morning. The potential for gusts to Warning criteria will be possible into the afternoon over southwest ND. In central ND the wind potential is not quite as high, but Warning criteria winds could still be reached this morning, based on RAP soundings, with the potential for warning criteria winds diminishing this afternoon, but a sporadic Warning criteria gust can not be ruled out this afternoon. RAP soundings also support only Advisory criteria winds over eastern portions of central ND from the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley, although a sporadic gust to 60 mph can not be completely ruled out here either.

In general, accumulating snow is expected to taper off this afternoon. Light snow or flurries, though, could remain into the evening. Winds will also diminish later this afternoon through this evening. By around midnight, strong Arctic high pressure will build south over the forecast area, with the center of the High over southern Saskatchewan and into eastern Montana and far western ND by Saturday morning. With the center of the high to our northwest, this should keep blustery winds through the night across the forecast area. Expect we will definitely need a Cold Weather Advisory for much of the forecast area later this evening through Saturday morning. With our current Wind and Winter Advisories ongoing and after coord with surrounding offices, will hold off on issuing these at this time.

The aforementioned Arctic high scoots quickly southeast Saturday, and we see another Alberta clipper tracking through eastern ND Saturday night. We could see some light warm advection snow pushing into the north central as early as late afternoon Saturday, but for the most part, precipitation (snow) should fall Saturday night into Sunday. Think most will see light accumulating snow Saturday night through Sunday. Currently NBM ensemble probabilities of at least an inch of snow remain low over the forecast area, except for the Turtle Mountains area where there are medium chances for an inch of snow. Strong northwest winds will once again overspread the forecast area in the wake of the clipper. At this time, it looks like we may see advisory criteria winds, which combined with falling snow, and with at least a little snow on the ground now, another round of blowing snow will be possible with this system Saturday night through Sunday. Higher impacts at this time appear to be over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Will definitely need to monitor as we approach the weekend.

The weekend clipper is replaced by another chunk of modified Arctic air early next work week. It's possible we see a brief warmup ahead of another clipper on Tuesday, but for the most part a Northwest upper level flow is expected to continue through the work week with generally colder temperatures, ranging from near normal southwest to below normal northeast. Occasional period of light snow and winds can be expected as clippers traverse the forecast area, then a potential for a reinforcing chunk of Arctic air as we head into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Widespread snow and blowing snow this morning with MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibilities. Snow will gradually taper from west to east this afternoon, but MVFR to occasional IFR visibilities in blowing snow can be expected through much of the afternoon. Northwest winds with gust of 50 to 60 mph can be expected today across much of the area, with slightly lower gusts from the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley. Windy conditions will continue tonight with occasional MVFR visibilities in blowing snow. Periods of MVFR ceilings are possible through the night.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-033>037-041-042- 045>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ003>005-012- 013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.