textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue today through this evening for all of western and central North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- Strong winds will persist today through this evening. Patchy to areas of blowing dust may also return today.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening in the north, otherwise dry conditions will continue through Saturday.

- High chances (60 to 80 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. The highest chances are during the day Sunday.

- Near to below freezing temperatures may return to parts of the area beginning tonight. The highest probabilities for low temperatures below freezing temperatures are Monday and Tuesday nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The mixing height will continue to increase today which will mix stronger wind down to the surface. Winds will decrease across the state this afternoon as the upper low moves out of the region. Satellite imagery is showing so areas of blowing dust across southern Manitoba. No updates are need at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Some weak radar returns are showing up on the NDARB Bowman Radar in the southwest. This is likely virga given the dry air in place, however added in some sprinkles for the next few hours. Winds will start to increase this morning, with Wind Advisory winds still expected today. Thus left the wind highlights as is. Overall the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Upper level low will continue to push across southern Canada today, bringing mainly dry and windy conditions to the state. Winds today may not be as strong as yesterday, although should still increase through the morning and hit advisory level by this afternoon. Areas near the International Border remain close to a strong 850 mb and 700 mb jet today, although the best cold air advection and pressure rises do not occur until a secondary frontal passage this evening. Thus confidence in High Wind Warning criteria today is not high. Decided to cancel the previous High Wind Warning and issue a Wind Advisory for the entire CWA today. Winds may delay increasing today, yet sustained winds 24 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are still forecast. This could bring some more blowing dust. With winds slightly lower today, will mention this in the current wind highlights. If blowing dust brings widespread impacts then perhaps more blowing dust highlights are needed today. RH values will remain low today, and combined with the mentioned winds, will bring critical fire weather conditions. Thus will keep the Red Flag Warning as is. SPC now has a general risk for thunderstorms in the north today. A cold front will move across this area later today through tonight. When it does some some weak instability may be enough for a few isolated thunderstorms. The chance for wetting rain is slow, and main concern with any thunderstorms today would be an isolated strong wind gust to 60 mph given the dry inverted-v soundings. Temperatures will remain above normal today and generally in the 70s to lower 80s. Tonight, the mentioned weak front will move through and stall. The upper low in southern Canada will also push east. This will lessen the gradient and diminish winds. Any thunderstorms that develop should also diminish shortly after sunset. Lows tonight will be much cooler and generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some frost is possible in the northwest. A passing ridge then looks to bring dry and mild conditions for Saturday. Winds will generally be light to start the day, then change to a breezy southerly wind. Depending on timing of this increased southerly wind some near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the south as afternoon RH values fall into the lower 20s in these areas. Otherwise look for highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across much of the area on Saturday. A broad trough and developing surface low lee of the northern Rockies could then bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday night. Breezy winds will also continue through the night, while lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s are found.

This broad trough pattern then looks to be found Sunday through early to mid next week. The result will be cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and daily chances for rain showers. In the 48 hour period from Sunday through Monday, NBM has 40 to 80 percent chance of at least 0.5" across much of the CWA with some medium chances for an inch of qpf in southeastern portions of the state. The NBM also has low chances for snow mixing in across scattered areas during the cooler morning periods Monday and Tuesday. This wetter pattern will also bring cooler temperatures to North Dakota. Highs in the 40s and 50s north to the 60s south on Sunday will drop down into the mid 40s to mid 50s Monday through Tuesday. The possibility of freezing conditions will also be found Monday through Wednesday mornings and will need to be monitored for frost/freeze products. Temperatures could rebound by the middle of the week as another subtle ridge moves across the region, which may also bring some dry conditions. The extended model guidance still showing perhaps have a more active pattern return by the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, with strong west winds returning today. Winds will increase this morning and remain strong through through this evening. Gusts in excess of 40 knots are expected. Blowing dust may also return today with this strong winds. This could bring some reduced visibility and lower ceilings, although predictability is low at this time. A few showers and thunderstorms could return to the north this afternoon, especially from KXWA to KMOT to KRUG. Confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will diminish to a light west wind tonight, with VFR conditions expected to prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 359 AM CDT FRI May 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue today through this evening due to strong winds and low relative humidity.

Lighter yet steady westerly winds will go on the increase this morning and remain strong, with sustained winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, this afternoon into this evening. Dry conditions will continue today, with afternoon humidity values as low as 15 percent. Weak instability in the north could bring a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The chances for a wetting rain are low, although gusty and erratic winds will be possible. Patchy to areas of blowing dust may also return today. Winds will diminish tonight, with cooler temperatures bringing better humidity recoveries of around 60 to 80 percent.

Mainly dry conditions look to continue for Saturday. Winds will start out around 5 to 10 mph and variable in direction, changing to an increased southerly flow later in the day and through the night. Depending on timing and strength of this increased southerly flow, some near critical fire weather conditions are possible across southern North Dakota as south southeast winds approach 20 mph and afternoon humidity values remain in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Cooler temperatures, improved humidity values, and increased chances for precipitation will then be found Sunday into early next week. Breezy to windy conditions may continue at times during this period. There remain high probabilities for 0.5 inches of rain across much of the state and up to 1 inch in the southeast. Next week looks to start out cool keeping minimum relative humidity on the higher side.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-055- 056. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ019-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-057>062.