textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional low snow chances (~20 percent) for a few parts of the area tonight, Friday, and Saturday.

- Breezy winds could be found Friday through early next week.

- Cooling trend through Saturday, with rebounding temperatures to start the upcoming week.

- Pattern becomes a bit more active later next week, with occasional precipitation chances (20 to 30 percent).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Mainly clear skies will give way to increasing clouds this evening through tonight ahead of a weak disturbance that is part of a broader split wave trough. This wave could produce a few light snow showers through tonight, mainly in southwestern and south central portions. Brief calming winds could also help provide for some patchy fog later this evening through tonight, and possibly into Friday morning. Confidence is not particularly high with this fog formation, although at least patchy fog remains in the forecast. Look for similar lows in the teens and 20s tonight. This wave and a weak cold front will push through the state Friday. Slight chances for snow remain in the forecast along this front through Friday, although accumulations look to be light at this time. Behind this front could be some breezy northwest winds. Pressure rises look minimal, yet there could be a push of cold air advection. Low to mid level winds also look elevated, yet may be tough to mix these winds down. For now left in NBM wind forecast, although gust Friday afternoon could be near advisory level for some areas. This front will continue the brief cooling trend with highs in the 20s north to 30s south. Friday night, chances for precipitation will generally push east. The exception for this will be in the west where the front stalls out. Along this stalled front could see chances for light snow, which the forecast currently has in the southwest. Colder air will continue to filter in Friday night, with lows in the single digits below zero north to the single digits and teens above north. Some breezy winds may linger in the east, perhaps bringing cold wind chills in the negative 20s. Cooling trend will hit a minimum Saturday, with highs in the single digits to teens for most areas. The exception being across the southwest where 20s are forecast. The mentioned stalled boundary may linger into Saturday, perhaps bringing slight chances for snow in the southwest. Breezy winds may also linger across the east on Saturday. Another cold night is forecast for Saturday night into Sunday morning, although winds should diminish improving wind chill values. mainly dry conditions are also forecast. Brief ridging could warm temperatures on Sunday, while also providing for mainly dry conditions. There are some indications a weak wave could move through as the ridge breaks down Sunday. Perhaps providing for some breezy winds and a slight chance of snow, although current NBM forecast is dry.

Clusters then build a substantial ridge across the western US coast early to mid next week. In most cluster scenarios the result for North Dakota is mild northwest flow. In this flow could be periodic chances for wintry precipitation, along with periods of breezy winds. Mild temperatures also look to return with this flow with minimal spreads in the NBM temperatures. Looking further into next week temperatures spreads become larger, with a cooling trend starting to be hinted. This would depend on placement of the mentioned western ridge and if cooler air can filter into the state. With this cooler air could come at least slight chances for snow. Overall this is worth monitoring, but clusters still hinting in a spread of solutions possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period, although increasing clouds may be found tonight into Friday. Today through this evening, look for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with some mid to high level clouds. Tonight, clouds will increase with some patchy fog possible in central portions. Confidence was not high enough to include fog in the forecast at this time. A weak cold front then moves through tonight into Friday morning. This could bring a few snow showers and perhaps low VFR to brief MVFR ceilings. Confidence was not high enough to place in MVFR ceilings at this time. Breezy westerly winds may also develop for Friday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.