textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds with patchy fog and mist over much of western and central North Dakota through tonight, with a low chance of light freezing drizzle in north central parts of the state.

- Well above average temperatures through the weekend. Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day, with highs in the upper 30s northeast to around 60 far southwest.

- 20 to 40 percent chance for light rain and snow early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Adjusted sky cover based on latest satellite imagery. Will maintain a mention of patchy fog and freezing drizzle with this forecast issuance. No other major updates.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

An area of low clouds with patchy dense fog underneath is migrating northward across western North Dakota late this evening. Observed trends are likely to continue, with these low clouds and fog intercepting a separate larger area that resides from southeast Saskatchewan into north central North Dakota.

There are still periodic reports of freezing drizzle in north central North Dakota, but they are becoming few and farther between. Will maintain a slight chance of freezing drizzle through tonight, and have extended this mention in the forecast through Saturday afternoon closer to the Turtle Mountains and the Devils Lake Basin, in collaboration with NWS Grand Forks.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The main forecast challenge through tonight is how excessive boundary layer moisture will be translated at the surface, both in terms of visibility and light precipitation. Automated observations along the Highway 52 corridor from Minot to the Canadian border have indicated on-and-off light freezing drizzle for the past few hours, including a hundredth of an inch of ice accretion measured by the Minot ASOS. It was thought that the ingredients supporting this freezing drizzle threat would have either waned or shifted eastward by now, but it appears that the southeasterly low level flow is reinforcing the boundary layer moisture, and an east-southeast surface wind field provides a slight orographic component. Furthermore, low level warm air advection is now commencing over this area, providing another source of lift. RAP and HRRR model soundings across north central North Dakota show the depth of near- surface saturated layer remaining near 1 km until later tonight. A slight chance (20 percent) of freezing drizzle has been extended until 3 AM CST for areas including Minot, Harvey, Rugby, and Bottineau.

The other concern will be the potential for fog. There are already signs of fog formation along the western periphery of the stratus in southwest North Dakota, and we anticipate this will expand and shift eastward through the night. This fog event appears to be primarily driven by advection processes, and conceptually seems more favored to be a 1 to 3 mile visibility outcome rather than dense fog, at least on a more widespread basis. But still would not be surprised to see some patchy dense fog at times throughout the night across the western half of the state.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Cloudy skies from lingering low level moisture looks to continue through much of the night. A weak surface upper level wave is pushing through now and will continue to do so through this evening. This weak wave may provide enough lift for some brief freezing drizzle through this evening, especially in the north. Areas with low cloud cover could also see a few flurries or sprinkles into this evening. Behind this wave will be an increasing pressure gradient which will bring some breezy south southeasterly winds tonight. This should limit the fog threat and may even partially break up clouds, mainly in western portions. Lows tonight look to be in the teens east to the lower 30s west. A more broad surface low with a better upper level wave then moves through on Saturday. Abundant low clouds will be found as a result through at least the morning, and could linger in the east through much of the day. Precipitation is possible along the upper level wave, although the better chances may be east of the forecast area thus currently have a dry forecast. Breezy southerly winds become a breezy and dry westerly wind Saturday afternoon behind the mentioned upper level wave. This could be the push needed to clear skies and bring warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast in the 40s and 50s west as this area should clear out earlier, with the 30s east. Ridging overhead should then bring dry and mild conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. A mainly dry and breezy westerly flow is then expected for Sunday. As a result warmer temperatures are again forecast with highs in the 40s and 50s for most areas. ECMWF EFI for Max T on Sunday remains over 0.9 indicating perhaps near record high temperatures are possible. For reference, most sites have records around 60 degrees for February 8th. Kept in the NBM forecast for now as a passing clipper system to our north could linger cloud cover across the state Sunday, which may somewhat limit high temperatures. This mentioned clipper system will start to push a weak cold front across the area from north to south Sunday night. NBM forecast is currently dry, although perhaps some isolated rain and snow showers are possible with this front. Being a weaker front, lows Sunday night still remain mild and in the 20s and 30s.

Our next more widespread chance of snow and possibly some rain then comes Monday into Tuesday as an upper level wave kicks out a northern Rockies surface low. Cooler yet still mild highs will be found both Monday and Tuesday with 30s generally expected, with some lingering 40s on Monday. Chances for accumulating snow with this system are around 30 to 60 percent, with chances for over 2 inches of snow up to 30 percent especially in the north. Thus some minor winter weather impacts are possible with this system to start the week. Winds look limited with this system, and north winds behind a cold front could bring lows into the teens Tuesday night. Wednesday through Friday sees a weak zonal flow pattern set up across the area. Passing waves in this pattern could bring some light snow, with NBM lingering slight chances on Wednesday and 10 to 20 percent chances for accumulating snow in a 24 hour period lingering through most of this time period. Mild temperatures also look to remain mid to late next week. NBM spreads are modest yet overall remain in the above normal range. The chance for breezy to strong winds with this pattern also look to be low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

At 04Z, an area of low stratus and fog with IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR to LIFR visibility was migrating northward across western North Dakota. Parts of southwest North Dakota, including KDIK, are now likely to see at least a few hours of VFR conditions late this evening, and could remain at VFR through the forecast period. Low clouds and fog could return to some areas that clear out though, and forecast confidence on this evolution in southwest North Dakota beyond 06Z remains low.

In central North Dakota MVFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail through tonight, with occasional MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions from freezing mist/fog. There is also a low chance for light freezing drizzle in north central North Dakota tonight into Saturday, mainly to the north and east of KMOT.

From Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, expect a west-to- east erosion of the low clouds and fog across western and central North Dakota. KXWA and KDIK should return to VFR by the afternoon, and KBIS is likely to by mid afternoon as well. But recent forecast guidance is trending to the low clouds not clearing east of KMOT to KJMS through at least Saturday afternoon, and possibly not until Sunday morning. Fog could also return to central parts of the state Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kts are forecast through tonight, with some higher gusts possible. Then expect winds turning to the west-northwest through the day Saturday as a frontal boundary moves from west to east across the state.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.