textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend warmer Friday and through the weekend. Near normal temperatures are forecast Friday, followed by above normal temperatures this weekend.

- Widespread 40 to 60 percent precipitation chances later this weekend and through early next week. Initially as rain, with a few thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday, then potentially mixing with snow Monday night across the north.

- Active weather pattern continues next week, along with near normal temperatures (highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a decent mid level S/WV pushing east-southeast across the region. Weak surface high pressure over the Northern Plains, with a cooler airmass persisting, resulting in high temperatures mainly in the 30s. The above mentioned wave results in some light snow showers across south central and southeastern ND, with subsidence in its wake resulting in clearing skies west. These snow showers should quickly push off to the east over the next few hours this afternoon.

Another embedded wave aided by some upper level jet support will bring a chance for some light showers to northwest and north central North Dakota later this afternoon and evening, otherwise expect the sky to trend mostly clear through the overnight with lows dropping down into the 20s.

Broad upper level ridge building into the Great Plains is still expected to bring a nice warming trend to the Dakotas this weekend, with widespread highs in the mid 50s to mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. While some fire weather concerns are possible tomorrow (Friday), we expect increasing moisture this weekend to offset any elevated fire weather concerns despite winds forecast to be on the breezy side. Southwest flow aloft develops Sat night and continues on Sunday as the ridge continues east. Multiple embedded waves in this flow will bring increased chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region Sat night through Sunday. The threat for any stronger convection will remain to our east.

Split flow for early next week, with a well defined northern stream wave pushing east across the Dakotas Monday-Tuesday, maintaining decent chances for moisture. Colder air mixing down from Canada will result in a possible rain/snow mix over northern areas of the state Monday night/Tues AM, though not expecting any impactful winter weather. Much cooler as well Monday (20-25 degrees cooler than Sunday) in the wake of a cold FROPA Sun/Sun night.

We remain in an active flow pattern through the remainder of next week, favoring precipitation chances pretty much each day and temperatures remaining near normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

MVFR to low VFR ceilings persist early this afternoon, but will quickly lift and/or scatter out/clear through 19-21Z this afternoon from west to east. Some light snow remains possible along and south of I94 for another few hours. Another area of mid level clouds and possible light showers will move across northwest into north central ND later this afternoon and evening, with probability too low to include at either KXWA or KMOT at this time. The sky trends clear for the remainder of tonight into Friday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.