textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue across western and much of central North Dakota this evening. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday through Friday for all of western and central North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- Strong winds spread across all of western and central North Dakota tonight. The strongest overall winds are then expected to persist Thursday through Friday.

- Chances (40 to 70 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms then increase Saturday night through Sunday night, possibly lingering into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Southeasterly winds continue to increase over western and central North Dakota this evening in advance of a cold front which is now located over central Montana. This is reflected well in the ongoing forecast, so no changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Surface low pressure out across eastern Montana and surface high pressure across Minnesota. This has led to a northwest and southeast pressure gradient. Windy southeasterly winds continue across eastern Montana into western North Dakota. This has lead to critical fire weather conditions across the west this afternoon, (read the fire weather discussion for information). An upper level low pressure system over the Northern Rockies continues to push eastward. There is a very low chance this could bring some remnants of thunderstorms from eastern Montana into western North Dakota tonight.

The aforementioned upper low over the Northern Rockies will continue to deepen moving out over the Northern Plains tomorrow into Friday. There is a low chance for thunderstorms across the eastern half of the state Thursday, but the majority of western and central North Dakota looks to be in the dry slot of the upper low. Thus, little to no rain is expected with this system. The upper level low is forecast to bring high winds across much of the northern half of the state Thursday and across much of the state Friday. A 60 kt 700 mb jet maximum is forecast to line up across northern North Dakota Thursday afternoon into early Friday supporting high winds. Dry conditions will continue with high winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns until the weekend. High temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s until the weekend.

Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the region Friday night, thus leading to clearing skies and a colder airmass. This could bring a chance for frost across the north for Saturday morning. A subtle ridge is forecast to move off to our east resulting in southwesterly flow Saturday into Sunday. A trough will move through the region bringing in a chance for some rain this weekend which will bring a subtle reprieve from the dry and windy conditions. Sundays system will bring a colder air mass resulting in the potential for freezing conditions Tuesday morning as surface high pressure passed overhead. The pattern remains to look active in the extended.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty south to southeast winds will shift to the west early Thursday morning as a cold front moves from west to east. Strong gusts are then expected, with gusts around 50 kts over northwest North Dakota including the KXWA terminal, and gusts to 45 kts elsewhere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Windy southeast winds around 20-30 mph and low relative humidity has lead to critical fire weather conditions across western and parts of central North Dakota this afternoon. This is because a surface low pressure over eastern Montana leading to a tight pressure gradient. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to continue Thursday and Friday. This is due to a dynamic system forecast to move into the region tonight through Friday. This will lead high winds across the region. A wind shift will happen tonight, as a cold front moves through the region. The southeasterly winds will veer out of the west around 30 to 40 mph winds and gusts from 55 to 65 possible by late tomorrow morning. There may be a short period where winds are on the lighter side during the wind shift. Winds are forecast to be strong across the north. The minimum relative humidity is forecast to range from the around 15 percent in the south to around 30 percent in the north Thursday and Friday. Thursday night, overnight recoveries are forecast to be poor with high winds. Thursday afternoon there is a low chance for thunderstorms and showers across the central portion of the state and around 15-30 percent across the eastern side of the state.

Saturday winds will subside, but minimum relative humidity will still be around 20 percent. A system is forecast to move into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Chance of showers are likely across the state with 50 to 70 percent across the state. This will cause relative humidity to increase next week.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 031>037-040>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056. High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056. Wind Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ004-005-012-013-019-020-022-023- 025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-057>062. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ018- 031>033-040-041-043-044.