textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous to life-threatening wind chills as low as 50 below zero again forecast tonight into early Sunday morning, coldest across the north.

- Frigid temperatures remain tonight into Sunday, with modestly warmer temperatures for the work week, though still remaining below average over many locations.

- Low snow chances (~20 percent) today into this evening, with only additional low chances showing up from time to time through the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 553 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

We made some small adjustments to weather/pops based on latest radar and surface observations. Widespread light reflectivities across much of western and central ND. Based pops on current reductions in visibility and where visibility was 6SM or greater we mentioned flurries. Impacts are minimal with little if any significant accumulations notes where light snow has been falling for a few hours or more. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Current surface analysis places high over the upper Midwest and modest low over southeast Montana. Upper level analysis places northerly flow over the Pacific Northwest, and a trough stretching across western Ontario through Manitoba into southern Saskatchewan and northern Montana/North Dakota. This is resulting a a few spots of light snow over parts of western and north central North Dakota. Main story over our area is the frigid airmass situated over our area, and ongoing Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, after our little reprieve from the very cold temperatures (parts of the area climbed to zero or a bit above, mainly southwest), another round of very cold air will settle through the area overnight as aforementioned surface low and upper trough settle southerly, and a surface high pushes over our area. Coldest overnight lows will be over the north where a few locations will dip to around 30 below zero, combining with light winds to produce 40 below to 50 below wind chill values. Further south, wind chill values of 30 below to 40 below remain possible. Therefore, will leave ongoing headlines that were updated mid-day in place.

Cold day on tap for Sunday with aforementioned high pressure setting through, with most locations expected to see high temperatures of zero or below. Anticipate additional cold weather headlines will be needed for Sunday night, but will let the current round of headlines play through for now, then revisit.

To start the upcoming work week, northwest flow sets up over our area as a bit warmer air tries to push in from the southwest. This warming will be limited as a variety of short waves passing through the flow keep it from progressing too far northeast. So, we will end up with a southwest to northeast temperature gradient over the area. With that said, even in the warmer locations of the southwest temperatures will only climb near to a bit below average going through the work week. Currently forecast only has some low snow chances (~20 percent) Tuesday night and again Thursday, but would not be surprised if a few additional flakes of snow show up given the pattern of various short waves sliding through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 553 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Widespread MVFR and occasional IFR visibilities and widespread low VFR ceilings with an occasional MVFR ceiling in light snow across much of western and central ND to begin the 00Z TAF period. This area of light snow/flurries will continue to track southeast and taper from north to south this evening and lingering into the early overnight hours south. Once snow ends expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. The only exception may be KDIK and the southwest portion of the state where short term models are picking up on some lower ceilings lingering into early Sunday morning. Confidence is low at this time but did keep some MVFR ceilings lingering at KDIK. Will revisit with the 06Z TAFs. Generally northerly surface flow west and north portions of the CWA 5-10 kts, with a south to southeast surface flow at KBIS and KJMS turning north this evening. Sfc flow shifts from north to west and increases a bit Sunday to 10-15 kts in the afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for NDZ001>005- 009>013-021>023-025-035>037. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>048-050-051.