textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures today through Saturday. Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s.

- Much colder with medium to high chances for rain late Saturday night through Monday. Snow could briefly mix with rain in western parts of the state late Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Widespread below freezing temperatures possible Monday night.

- A stronger system could bring windy and rainy conditions to the region mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Upper level ridging continues across the region which has resulted in warmer temperatures across the state. Temperatures are currently warming into the 70s across the state with lower 80s possible across the southwest. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to drop down around the upper 40s to 50s. Some model guidance was hinting at low stratus forming across the eastern half of the state moving up into the James River Valley tonight, however model guidance has backed off on this solution at this time.

Upper level ridging will break down this week as a trough deepens across western CONUS. This will bring forth southwest flow across the region and a pattern shift. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm in to the 70s and 80s in the southeast, however the northwest will warm into the mid 60s as a cold front move through the region. There could be some compressional warming ahead of the front so mid 80s are not off the table. The cold front will bring some breezy conditions across the state as the front moves through the region. Moving into Sunday, there are chances for rain across the west and portions of the central half of the state. There will likely be a window Sunday morning into the afternoon where rain chances will remain lower before another wave moves through the region. The upper level wave will move through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. The highest QPF remains across the western half of the state as there are decent chances for half an inch of rain. Temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 40s to 50s across the region Monday and Tuesday with a very low chance of snow mixing in the west Monday morning. Overcast skies could keep temperatures from tanking Tuesday morning however widespread freezing temperatures are possible across the northwest.

After this wave moves through the region Ensemble guidances has split flow regime with the possibility of the southern stream moving into the area. The GEFs solutions hints at the Northern stream bringing in stronger winds later next week. We will continue to monitor this, check back for the latest forecast updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions continue across the region. There will be some afternoon gusts for the northern terminals with wind gusts diminishing this evening. There is a low chance of low stratus developing across eastern North Dakota this evening however model guidance has backed off a bit. A front will move through the region tomorrow switching the wind direction out of the northwest. LLWS is possible across eastern North Dakota this evening impacting KJMS.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.