textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures forecast to be about 20 degrees above average through Friday.

- With the exception of some lingering showers/storms over the east this morning, mainly dry conditions expected through Friday. Low to medium precipitation chances this weekend.

- Critical fire weather conditions over far western North Dakota today, and will possibly return again Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the Northern Rockies, with high over northeast Manitoba. Upper level analysis places lows over the Sierra, and over Quebec into Ontario, while we sit in the middle with blocked ridge over our region. With that said, a modest low level jet over eastern into north central North Dakota is resulting in some persistant weak slow moving convection right along a corridor of instability generally from Valley City to Rugby to Bottineau. Shear over this area remains weak, so storms have just weakly pulsed up and down through the night.

For today, a few of the aforementioned light showers and storms may linger for a few hours this morning before dissipating. Otherwise, a hot day is on tap over the area under the persistant thermal ridge, with high temperatures again in the 90s over most locations, generally about 20 degrees above average. Southeasterly winds will again be on the increase, especially over the west. This will again combine with humidity values dipping as low as 15 percent to bring critical fire weather conditions to far western North Dakota, therefore the Red Flag Warning for that area remains in place for today into this evening.

Persistant blocked pattern remains in place through Friday with dry conditions, gusty south-southeasterly winds (especially west) and well above average temperatures. Critical fire weather concerns continue over our far west for Thursday, and possibly Friday.

As we get into the weekend perpetual upper ridge finally pushes east a bit as aforementioned low over the Sierra finally makes its way east into the Rockies, with south/southwest flow over our area. This will result in a modest cooling trend, with highs in the 80s over the area by Sunday. In addition, low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms spread over the area Saturday into Sunday. As we get into next week clusters indicate a split in solutions, but with that said the opportunity for additional precipitation remains each day to start the next work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible overnight over central North Dakota including the James River Valley. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Southeast winds will be on the increase today, strongest over western North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040- 043.