textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain with snow chances area wide tonight, with minimal accumulations forecast.

- Temperatures turn colder starting tomorrow, remaining below normal through the rest of the week (normal highs around 50F with forecast highs in the 30s to around 40).

- Dry conditions Tuesday, followed by chances (30 to 70%) for snow Wednesday and Thursday (light snow accumulations possible south central and southeast).

- Increasing probabilities for widespread accumulating snow (possibly moderate to heavy) Thursday night through Saturday across the region. Low probabilities regarding the placement of heavier precipitation and amounts remain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently, strong quasi-zonal flow aloft with the entrance region of a departing upper level jet over the Northern Plains and a mid level S/WV trough across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Secondary cold front situated roughly along the International border. Sharp contrast in afternoon temperatures, ranging from the upper 20s north to lower 50s south. Will relook afternoon temperatures before finalizing the forecast, likely adjusting cooler across the south as we're struggling to warm.

The combination of right entrance region jet forcing and lead mid level impulses moving east ahead of the mid level trough will result in decent chances (up to 75%) for light rain this afternoon through the evening as this forcing interacts with the southward moving cold front. A mix/changeover to snow is expected in the wake of the cold front on the north side of the precipitation. Only expecting less than a tenth of an inch of moisture, and little if any snow accumulating. Post-frontal winds also ramp up out of the northwest, with gusts to 30kts possible.

Much cooler on Tuesday in the wake of the front, with highs from the upper 20s north to around 40 south, along with continued blustery conditions with gusty northwest winds persisting during the day.

A hybrid southwest/split flow aloft develops for the middle of the week, with a S/WV trough moving into the southwest CONUS and a S/WV ridge over the Northern Rockies by early Wed. Chances for snow (mainly south) late Tuesday night through early Thursday under this flow pattern, along with continued below normal high temperatures both Wed and Thu. Base of the aforementioned southwest trough lifts east and north on Thursday, how far north being the big question with GEFS and EC ensembles not in sync yet. Some travel impacts may arise during the day Thursday, depending how far north this wave and its associated snow spread (EC farther north, GEFS farther south).

Deep cutoff upper low will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest Wed night into Thursday, then develops east into/across the Rockies Thu night and into the Great Plains Friday/Fri night. Latest NBM trended higher with QPF and snow amounts for this system over the Dakotas late Thu night through Sat AM. Latest 48 hour probabilities for 6" of snow is at 40-60%, 30-50% for 8", and 17-25% for 12". Will continue to mention in the HWO, and will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist north through much of the forecast period. Initially VFR conditions elsewhere, deteriorate to low VFR/MVFR ceilings this evening-early Tue morning for a several hour period, along with a chance of mainly rain, but with snow mixing in as colder air moves south. Conditions then improve to VFR during the day Tuesday. Winds transition to northwesterly later today and through the rest of the period as a cold front moves south across the state. Peak wind gusts to 25-30 knots are forecast.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.