textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and breezy today, with a low chance for flurries across the north late this afternoon through early tonight.

- Near to above average temperatures expected through the upcoming week, perhaps well above average in southwest and south central North Dakota Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

- A much drier pattern is forecast through Christmas Eve, with only a low chance for light mixed precipitation on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Northwesterly flow over the northern Plains is turning increasingly zonal through this afternoon and evening behind a upper level low. With this, high pressure is expected to bleed into the forecast area from the southern Canadian Prairies through the late afternoon, helping to clear skies and calm winds through this period. High temperatures today are a little cooler on the backside of a surface cold front that passed us by last night, from the the lower single digits in the Turtle Mountains area, up to around freezing in the far southwest. Late this afternoon / early this evening through tonight, a weak warm front will be lofted through western and north central North Dakota. With increase 850mb WAA through this period, there is a very low chance for light precpitation across northwester and north central through the early morning. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings through this period reveals are fairly dry column throughout this period which, along with the weak forcing mechanism, is expected to limit the chance for a measurable amount of precpitation anywhere during this period, and thus we have opted to forecast flurries. Otherwise, increasing cloud cover and lows from around 10 below in the Turtle Mountain area to the upper teens in the far southwest are expected.

On the backside of the aforementioned warm front, and with a transient shallow ridge moving over the northern Plains, warmer weather is on the docket Sunday and Monday with high from the mid to upper teens north central up the the lower to mid 40s in the far southwest. Another weak short shortwave passing through the southern Canadian Prairies Monday morning through late Monday night represents our next opportunity for precpitation the northern half of the forecast area. Conditions are such that overall QPF amounts during this period are anticipated to be fairly light, with only a low chance (<10%) to exceed more than a few hundreths of an inch of liquid precip through this period. With the warmer temperatures expected Monday, NBM members are split along ensemble family lines on the type of precpitation that would fall. The majority (approximately 75%) of cluster members favor non-impactful weather during this time, being either no measure precpitation or lightly accumulating snow. A minor cluster (approximately 25%) does promote a low chance for a glaze of ice Monday morning through the afternoon, which could cause some minor to moderate travel impacts if it occurs. We will continue to monitor the evolution of this system over the next few forecast cycles.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the workweek, near zonal flow is anticipated over the northern Plains as a broad and shallow ridge develops. With this pattern, generally dry conditions are anticipated through the first half of the week, though light precpitation may accompany any odd shortwave that slides along general flow. Overall, there is no strong signal for precpitation during this period. Above normal temperatures are also anticipated during this period, with a gradient from a cooler northeast to warmer southwest. The ensemble remains discordant to the degree of warming during this period, with a majority (approximately 65%) favoring cooler temperatures in the teens to 20s north to 30s and 40s south, versus a slightly warmer minority cluster (approximately 35%) which advertises 20s north to 40s and 50s south. The broad ridging pattern may start to break down of the ridging pattern by Christmas Day, with the ensemble capturing a slight uptick in low PoPs through the end of week, falling mainly as lightly accumulating snow. That being said, the ensemble becomes increasingly discordant through this period, and there is no strong signal for precpitation either which way as of the current forecast. Look even further ahead, the CPC climate outlook has North Dakota favored to remain in above normal temperatures through days 6 to 14, December 25th through January 2nd. For this same period, we go from slightly favored to below normal precpitation from days 6 to 10, to slightly favored for above normal precpitation from days 8 to 14.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. Late this afternoon through early tonight, mid level clouds will cross from west to east, accompanied by occasional flurries. Breezy northwest winds will linger across central North Dakota through early this afternoon, with speeds from 20 t0 25 knots gusting up up to 30 knots. Winds will then diminish, becoming light and variable through the late afternoon and evening as high pressure moves in from the west, before reorganizing out of the south southwest overnight through the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.