textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional light accumulating snow mainly over the southwest at times today through tonight.

- Below average temperatures for the remainder of the workweek, then near to above average for the weekend and into next week. Wind chills tonight may drop down to around 30 below zero mainly in parts of the north central.

- Medium to high chances (60 to 80 percent) for light snow Saturday through Saturday night. A wintry mix is possible mainly in the west Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 411 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Currently, northwesterly flow aloft continues with elongated surface high over eastern Saskatchewan into the eastern Dakotas, and elongated surface low from southeastern Alberta into western South Dakota. This continues to force light snow mainly over southwestern North Dakota, but also in to the far northwest, where enhanced mid-level moisture resides. Observed visibilities generally remain in excess of 2 miles, however, there have been occasional dips below when more organized returns develop. This means that while light snow has been accumulating, overall rates are usually no more than a tenth of an inch per hour.

Overall, this pattern doesn't change much through tonight, though there are a couple notable differences. For one, CAA aloft becomes more dominant, which helps stymie lift. Second, surface high pressure begins to organize over southern Manitoba/western Ontario. This will keep southwestern/far northwestern ND in the pressure gradient. However, this organized surface high will eventually begin to push mid-level moisture further west as it propagates southward. With all this, maintained 20 to 40 percent PoPs over a very similar area as this past night (mainly southwest and far northwest). The expectation remains for later this afternoon/overnight that new snow will be light and generally less than an inch. This is supported by both the NBM and NBM 5.0, which keep the probability of an additional inch later this afternoon through tonight at less than 20 percent.

Mostly dry conditions are then expected Friday through Friday night before an Albert Clipper develops and slides through the Northern Plains Saturday. As it clips through the Northern Plains, confidence in precipitation keeps increasing with most of the state seeing a 60 to 80 percent chance of snow at some point Saturday. As is usually the case, the NBM 5.0 is more bullish in regard to snow totals with a 60 to 80 percent chance of at least an inch (very low chances of 2 inches or more) east of highway 83. Most locations along and west of Highway 83 are currently favored to see a dusting to half inch.

Being a clipper style system, there will likely be gusty gradient winds at times. However, deterministic models continually show a lack of solid CAA and pressure rises (mainly pressure falls) with this system. In addition, the strongest gradient is currently favored to occur during the overnight hours. This all will likely limit winds to sub-advisory criteria across the forecast area. However, models do show some downslope enhancement along portions of the Missouri Coteau. Not to mention localized gusts occasionally can and do overperform. Combined with aforementioned fresh snow, blowing snow is possible especially during the daytime hours Saturday. One final note is the NBM, supported by global deterministic soundings, suggests the potential for a loss of ice through the DGZ on the backside of the precipitation shield. This could cause a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle mainly over western ND early Saturday morning. Any ice accumulations as of now are favored to be light, while temperatures are forecast to warm above freezing in the west during the afternoon.

Beyond Saturday, expect multiple perturbations off the western, CONUS ridge to pass east through the Northern Plains. This will lead to overall warmer temperatures, which will have some day to day variance, along with the potential for occasional light precipitation. Though as of now, no major systems appears to be on the horizon through the forecast period.

Temperatures will remain below average across the state today and Friday, with the coldest temperatures generally north and east. Wind chills may drop down to around 30 below zero tonight mainly for north central parts of the CWA. Above average temperatures are then likely for this weekend with highs ranging from around 20 east to around 40 southwest Saturday, and then the mid 20s northeast to mid 30s southwest on Sunday. For the start of the next workweek, overall, the NBM is starting to settle on a slightly cooler solution overall compared to NBM probabilities in prior days. However, that will be highly influenced day to day based on the timing of any ridging or trailing shortwaves.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light snow continues over much of southwestern ND and into parts of the northwest. Overall, snow remains light with visibility under falling snow mostly MVFR, though some IFR visibilities have been observed as well. Ceilings for the most part are currently low VFR, though pockets of MVFR ceilings are present as well and may expand a bit overnight. There will likely be a break in the snow for much of Thursday before another round is possible later in the afternoon and through the overnight hours. Coverage of snow Thursday night looks very similar to tonight in that it's favored mostly over the southwest and into the far northwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.