textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions in the southern James River Valley on Saturday.

- Temperatures Saturday through Monday will range from seasonably mild north to unseasonably warm southwest, followed by a quick but sharp cool down on Tuesday.

- After a dry weekend, a more active pattern returns next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

No changes to the going forecast. Only some mid and high clouds with a moderate southerly flow. Temperatures are currently in the mid 20s to mid 30s and with the current southerly wind, probably won't drop much more governing.

UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

No major changes are needed for this update. Current conditions and trends have been blended into the forecast. Still looking at breezy southerly winds developing tonight as high clouds spread across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

This afternoon, surface high pressure was drifting over the Dakotas underneath cyclonic flow aloft, with an upper low placed over the northern Hudson Bay. This has led to a quiet weather day after some flurries this morning, with sunny skies and a touch of a breeze across central and eastern North Dakota. It is still seasonably cool in the wake of yesterday's system, with 20 UTC temperatures in the 20s north and east to the 30s southwest and central, with some lower 40s along the Montana and South Dakota borders. Some high clouds upstream and visible on satellite imagery will move through the state tonight, but otherwise main weather concern is increasing winds from a strong low-level jet and warm air advection overspreading the area. This will keep overnight lows not too different from highs today, mainly in the lower 20s to lower 30s.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible on Saturday in the southern James River Valley. The temporal overlap between the strongest winds (morning) and lowest relative humidity (afternoon) is not favorable, but still enough for near critical fire weather conditions. We blended in some high-resolution dew points, which lowered minimum relative humidity into the lower teens far southwest to the 25 to 30 percent range in the southern James River Valley. To the west, winds are much lighter which is why there is less concern there, but to the east, the south to southeast winds that will be breezy tonight will continue into Saturday morning, sustained up to 25 mph before diminishing through the afternoon.

Once winds diminish on Saturday, should be a quiet and mild day, although a passing vort max embedded in the quasi-zonal flow will lead to increasing cloud cover. Forecast highs range from the 40s near the Turtle Mountains to the mid 60s far southwest. Clouds wil briefly clear on Sunday, with similar temperatures to Saturday, ahead of a more pronounced impulse. Precipitation chances start Sunday night, highest across northern North Dakota, as a shortwave trough starts digging over the Pacific Northwest. P-type will be a bit tricky but is generally favoring snow north and rain south, with low to medium POPs continuing through Monday before tapering off Monday night. Latest probabilities are generally low chances for exceeding 2 inches of snow from this system.

Tuesday looks dry but is much cooler in the wake of this system, as low amplitude ridging attempts to build in. Forecast highs drop back into the upper 20s to upper 30s, but start to rebound quickly for Wednesday. Cluster analysis is starting to come into better agreement on the broad synoptic pattern bringing a more notable trough and attendant low moving over the Northern Rockies for the middle and end of next work week. Although there is still modest spread in NBM temperature percentiles, even the 25th percentile has max temperatures at or above freezing for the entire forecast area, so the system overall has trended a little warmer. As the previous shift noted, it still does not look supportive of a significant cyclone, and those temperatures would favor rain vs. snow for the majority of the forecast area. We cannot rule out any impactful accumulations, with a few NBM members still advertising some significant snow amounts. The ECMWF EFI continues to favor anomalous snow accumulations north of the International Border in the southern Canadian Prairies, so will be worth keeping an eye on in the coming days, especially for those in northern North Dakota. Temperatures generally look near normal through the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. South winds 15 to 20 knots with some locally higher gusts tonight. Winds then diminish and shift north to northwest on Saturday morning at KDIK, KXWA and KMOT. Winds will remain southwest into the afternoon at KBIS and KJMS, but will also diminish, and shift north to northeast mid to late afternoon. Low level wind shear will impact all terminals from 06 UTC into Saturday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.