textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- High chances for accumulating snow across all but far southern North Dakota Tuesday through Wednesday. The highest probabilities (60 to 80 percent) for higher amounts of snow (at least 4 inches) are along and north of Highway 2.

- Low chances for light rain across northern North Dakota on Sunday, with a wintry mix possible along the Canadian border.

- Well above normal temperatures through Monday, then quickly trending much cooler to near or below normal for the second half of next week.

- Additional low to medium chances for lighter snow Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Changes for this forecast update were minor and mostly to blend in observed and ensemble modeled trends. Did introduce another patchy fog mention from the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley tonight into Sunday morning. Near-surface forecast parameters do look favorable for fog formation, but it will likely be dependent on cloud cover.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Currently zonal continues across the Northern Plains, while southwest flow begins on the West Coast. This zonal flow and well above normal temperatures will continue through Monday. Sunday a very slight short wave will move across the state, bringing chances of mixed precipitation across the north between the late morning and the evening. The mix should mainly just be rain and snow, as there are very little chance of freezing rain, but not zero.

Monday an incoming trough hits the West Coast, and by Tuesday will produce a low pressure system off the Rockies Mountains. Tuesday morning the state will be in diffluent southwest flow with low chances (20%) of rain and snow starting. This morning a lot of models have brought the center of the low farther north, which in turns brings the rain/snow line back into the state. Through most of the day Tuesday, mostly rain could fall as surface temperatures will be above freezing across most of the state. Tuesday evening the backside of the low will wrap the cooler air in, transiting the rain to snow. Tuesday will also be windy with the pressure gradient force. Winds will stay below Advisory level and likely will not line up with the snow. The stronger pressure rises could go south of where any snow will accumulate through Tuesday decreasing the chance of wind headlines. The snow will then continue with wrap around precipitation, and the south central could fall into the dry slot Wednesday. Wednesday will also be breezy with the surface low pressure gradient, and could cause blowing snow impacts. There is a little more uncertainty this afternoon now since models are back to not agreeing with the low track and strength. After Wednesday, snow chances will linger through Friday as a weak clipper system moves through.

During all this, temperatures will cool into the 20s and 30s Wednesday, and continue falling to the teens for highs by the end of the week. Going into next weekend the north could be in the single digits above zero and the southwest could be in the 30s. Lows could be slightly below zero heading into the weekend. It is possible that because we have been so warm, the NBM has a warm bias and snow cover could drop temperatures even lower. They could also be higher as a shortwave ridge looks to move in but timing would affect temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Patchy fog could once again develop across the eastern half of the state tonight into Sunday morning, possibly near KJMS. A band of light precipitation could move across northern parts of the state on Sunday. Any precipitation at KXWA and KMOT would be expected to fall as rain, but there could be a mix of snow and freezing rain closer to the Canadian border. Gusty westerly winds in southwest North Dakota should subside this evening. Otherwise, expect southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts through Sunday morning, turning to the northwest Sunday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.