textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds will continue to diminish overnight from northwest to southeast.

- Widespread freezing temperatures expected late tonight into early Friday morning, especially over western locations.

- Notably milder temperatures along with dry weather to end the week and start next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 949 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Winds have been steadily diminishing over the past few hours, therefore opted to cancel the Wind Advisory early for far northwestern North Dakota. Winds elsewhere are mostly below Advisory criteria though closer overall, so will let things play out across the rest of the CWA for now. Otherwise, sky cover is steadily eroding in western Montana and far southeastern Saskatchewan. Just how quickly this sky cover erodes will greatly impact exactly where freezing conditions occur tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, isolated light rain showers persist across central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Gusty northwesterly winds continue across the state. While the general trend this evening through the overnight hours should be a gradual decrease in winds from northwest to southeast, increasing pressure rises could lead to another relatively brief surge this evening. Therefore, no changes to the Wind Advisory are expected over the next few hours. Otherwise, isolated to scattered light rain showers continue mainly for the eastern two thirds of the state. These will dissipate as skies clear from northwest to southeast tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Currently, strong S/WV trough moving southeast across the Northern Plains today, with an associated sfc cold front now to our south. Behind the frontal passage earlier, strong northwest winds have developed along with the extensive low level stratus filtering into the state. Peak gusts have been right around 50 mph, and should continue to be gusty for several more hours till diminishing this evening/early Friday morning. Thus wind headlines remain on track. With the mid level wave, isolated/scattered light rain showers moving south/southeast, so will maintain this in the forecast. Best moisture accumulation will be over my east, where a few hundreths will be possible.

S/WV troughing to our east tonight with a high amplitude ridge to our west. Strong surface high pressure builds into the western Dakotas later tonight, thus the decrease in winds forecast. In addition, CAA coupled with decreasing clouds and the decrease in winds will see temperatures dropping into the 20s west and north central, and to near freezing south central. Should remain above freezing southeast where winds and clouds linger the longest. Thus, we opted to issue a Freeze Warning for western and much of central North Dakota late tonight through early Friday.

South/southwest return flow for Friday, yet the cold start will only see highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s despite a mostly clear sky as well. Fire weather may become an issue southwest Friday and Saturday, but right now looks sub-marginal.

Upper level ridge to our west deamplifies into the weekend as it moves east, morphing into a quasi-zonal flow regime across the Northern Plains into next week. This pattern will bring dry weather conditions to the region, along with temperatures at or slightly above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Gusty northwesterly winds continue this evening, while MVFR ceilings persist across most of the state. Light isolated to scattered rain showers are present across most of the eastern two thirds of the state as well, and will continue this evening before dissipating later tonight. Skies will clear while winds gradually diminish from northwest to southeast through the night tonight and into Friday morning. Once skies clear, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the remainder of the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033- 035-040>044-055>062. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ004-005-012-013-018>020-022-031>033-035-040>044-056>062. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037- 046>048-050-051.