textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional light accumulating snow mainly over the southwest at times through tonight.

- Cold Weather Advisory for the north central tonight. Expect wind chills as low as 35 below zero.

- Below average temperatures through Friday, then near to above average for the weekend and into next week.

- Medium to high chances (60 to 90 percent) for light snow Saturday through Saturday night. Freezing rain possible mainly along and west of Highway 83 Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Currently northwest flow continues across the Northern Plains, with an upper level high moving on shore in the West Coast. A shortwave ridge in western Montana will move east through the night, leading to northern flow over North Dakota. At the surface a low pressure and front are present in western South Dakota and eastern Montana. As this surface system moves east tonight, it will produce light snow across the southwest half of the state. Accumulating snow will likely be southwest of a line from Watford City to Glen Ullin to Lemmon, SD. Snow amounts will likely be less than an inch, NBM probabilities for 1 inch of snow there are 10 to 30 percent.

Friday will be very cold, starting with low temperatures tonight. In the northeast half of the state lows will be well below zero with wind chills around 35 below from very little clouds and calm winds. We have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the north central from midnight to 10am Friday. Friday across the state will be very cold. High temperatures will range from the single digits below zero in the north central to 20 above in the far southwest with a surface high pressure still dominating.

Friday night a clipper system will kick that high pressure out. With that shortwave ridge lingering in western North Dakota, temperatures aloft will be warm enough for freezing rain. The forecast for this keeps changing everyday so confidence in a widespread freezing rain event is low, however the signal for some freezing rain has been there for several days. As of now, the highest chances for freezing rain is along and west of Highway 83 until the afternoon. Saturday afternoon a cold front will sweep through with the low, bringing in cold air aloft to create just snow across the state. Snow totals look to be around 1 inch. The NBM probabilities for 1 inch are 30 percent in the central to near 60 percent between the Turtle Mountains and Jamestown. For 2 inches in that area it drops below 20 percent. Saturday will also be breezy with the pressure gradient from the low and cold air advection behind the front.

Sunday through Monday morning that shortwave ridge will keep temperatures well above normal with calm winds. Another clipper system looks to move through Monday afternoon, bringing more light snow. After Monday that upper level high mentioned above could dominate the western CONUS, leading to well above normal temperatures and mostly quiet weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

MVFR west to VFR central and east. Another round of light snow is possible this afternoon through the overnight across western and southwestern ND. Scattered IFR CIGs will then move in later in the period. Winds will stay generally light.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for NDZ003>005-012-013.