textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooling trend through Saturday, with rebounding temperatures to start the upcoming week.

- Occasional low snow chances (~20 percent) for a few parts of the area tonight and Friday. Most locations will remain dry through early next week.

- Pattern becomes a bit more active later next week, with occasional precipitation chances (20 to 30 percent).

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Limited updates needed late this morning. Mainly update is for the Aviation Discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 854 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Limited updates needed so far this morning. Mid to high clouds remain in the southeast, with clear skies elsewhere. Made some minor sky changes based on current satellite trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Quiet weather remains over the area, with no changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Current surface analysis places low along the Colorado/Kansas border, with secondary low over southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa. High remains over southern Montana nudging into the far western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places modest trough to the west of the Rockies, with generally westerly flow over our area with a few noted short waves.

For today, a rather quiet but cooler day than yesterday is expected over our area, though high temperatures will still run about 10 degrees above average. In the meantime, aforementioned upper trough will continue its eastward track pushing over the Rockies, and starting to close off over its southern end. Precipitation developing with this system this evening will remain mainly west and south of our area, but some low chances (~20 percent) will graze far southwestern North Dakota.

On Friday, main wave and cold front pass through the area, with winds switching west/northwesterly and becoming breezy. Upper low then starts to close off Friday night over southern Manitoba moving over Minnesota. Some snow with this will be possible over eastern North Dakota possibly making its way around the Turtle Mountain area, but at this point chances remain low (~20 percent).

A cooler day is expected on Saturday in the wake of the aforementioned front, with single digit highs possible over parts of central North Dakota, particularly around the Turtle Mountains. Upper ridging over the western CONUS then spreads easterly into our area to start the upcoming week. This will keep conditions dry and result in a warming trend. A variety of short waves are then forecast to slide along the face of the ridge in north/northeasterly flow over our area bringing precipitation chances mid-week (20 to 30 percent at this time).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period, although increasing clouds may be found tonight into Friday. Today through this evening, look for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with some mid to high level clouds. Tonight, clouds will increase with some patchy fog possible in central portions. Confidence was not high enough to include fog in the forecast at this time. A weak cold front then moves through tonight into Friday morning. This could bring a few snow showers and perhaps low VFR to brief MVFR ceilings. Confidence was not high enough to place in MVFR ceilings at this time. Breezy westerly winds may also develop for Friday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.