textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below average temperatures favored through early next week, with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s and lows mostly in the 40s.

- Daily windy conditions expected through Saturday, strongest on Thursday.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today, mainly north and east of the Missouri River. Then higher chances for showers and a few thunderstorms on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue this afternoon and evening over much of the state, except the southwest. There have been a few rumbles of thunder, especially east of Highway 85. However, with marginal instability and enhanced shear moving off to the east, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated for the forecast area. Windy conditions will also continue through this afternoon before becoming lighter, albeit still breezy, this evening and overnight.

Tonight through Thursday will see increasing precipitation chances as upper low over Manitoba gradually churns eastward, while shortwave energy and associated surface trough slides through the Northern Plains. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms at times generally starting and ending from northwest to southeast. Overall, precipitation totals are expected to be light, though higher amounts are possible with any thunderstorm activity. In addition to showers and thunderstorms, windy conditions are expected on Thursday as the surface trough significantly tightens the gradient. Moderate CAA and modest pressure rises could result in advisory level winds Thursday, especially in the southwest.

Aforementioned upper low very slowly meanders eastward through the remainder of the week and into early next week... only progressing about as far as Ontario/Hudson Bay. Therefore, while the NBM produces a mostly dry forecast Friday through early next week, embedded shortwave energy in northerly/northwesterly flow aloft could produce occasional showers and thunderstorms. In addition, breezy to windy conditions are expected most days through the remainder of the week. Of final note, cooler temperatures, usually below average, will prevail through at least the weekend and likely into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Isolated showers are present in the northwest, while scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder are present in the James River Valley. So far, lightning strikes have been south of KJMS, so went with SHRA for the tempo, though that may need to be amended depending how things evolve over the next couple hours. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected come this evening before more widespread showers spread from northwest to southeast across most of the state tonight through Thursday morning. These showers will bring MVFR ceilings with the potential for pockets of IFR ceilings to develop. Windy conditions out of the west will let off a bit this evening before switching to the northwest late tonight and becoming gusty on Thursday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.