textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend through Friday, then slightly cooler for the weekend. Windy Friday and Saturday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible in far northwest North Dakota on Friday, with near-critical elsewhere.

- Sub-freezing low temperatures possible Saturday night.

- Above normal temperatures favored next week.

- Only occasional low chances for light rain showers and a few thunderstorms through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft with embedded/subtle waves coupled with diurnal heating contributing to showers and a few thunderstorms early this evening across eastern Montana and southern Saskatchewan. Will maintain a slight chance west for another couple of hours, then with loss of daytime heating expect this activity to gradually wane. Will monitor and revisit as needed. Other forecast elements remain on track for tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A pseudo warm front will push into the state from west to east this evening through tonight. With it could be a few isolated showers in the west, that may produce some gusty winds. Temperatures at or above freezing and generally in the 30s will also be found for tonight. This afternoon and evening could see some low RH values across the state, along with a steady northwest wind. This should still fall short of critical fire weather criteria. The mentioned front stalls across the state on Friday, bringing warmer temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. These warmer temperatures will also provide for low humidity values in the 20s to lower 30s. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft combined with an approaching cold front will bring increased northwest winds Friday afternoon and evening. As a result a Fire Weather Watch remains in the northwest for Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This area also has the potential for an increased 850 mb jet to intersect with somewhat steep low level lapse rates, which could also increased the fire weather threat. Another area of similar concern is the James River Valley and adjacent western counties. This area will need to be monitored for critical fire weather conditions, although right now slightly cooler temperatures in these areas could bring slightly increased humidity values. Thus will continue near critical fire weather messaging outside of the Fire Weather Watch area. A cold front is then expected to move from north to south across the state later Friday through Friday night. This could bring some showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms given weak instability. SPC now has most of the state in a general risk for storms as a result. If a more organized storm or cluster of storms can develop then perhaps some strong wind gusts are possible with this thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorm chances diminish through the night, with temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s, and diminishing winds expected.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will continue to prevail. Breezy to windy northwest winds will be found Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s are also forecast. With dry conditions remain this could lead to a near critical fire weather day, although the slightly cooler temperatures may improve RH values enough to limit the concerns in the more windy areas in the east. Surface high moves in Saturday night, which could bring slightly cooler temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning. This could result in the growing seasons first frost or freeze products with lows currently forecast in the low to mid 30s. Surface high with ridging aloft then lingers for Sunday. Slightly warmer more seasonable high temperatures can be expected as a result. Low RH values will continue in the afternoon, although winds under this high will be light. A switch to southerly flow at the surface will bring mild overnight lows in the 30s and 40s for Sunday night.

A low pressure system could then bring a warm and windy start to next week. Depending how the low tracks this could also bring some chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday. Instability should be limited, thus the threat of severe weather is low except for maybe a strong gust of wind if any better organized storms can develop. Of more concern are the continued dry conditions combined with increased winds may lead to more critical fire weather conditions to start next week. The precipitation chances with this low may help somewhat, although the progression of this low could bring a strong southerly wind shifting to a strong northwesterly wind with RH values in the 20s. Something to monitor going forward.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions forecast through the 00Z TAF period for western and central North Dakota. Mid to high clouds will stream southeast across the region, with clearing skies expected overnight. Increasing clouds Friday afternoon then forecast. Winds return to light and variable this evening, then breezy northwest winds returning for Friday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NDZ001-009-017.