textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds expected over western and central North Dakota today into this evening, with gusts up to 70 mph.

- Critical fire weather conditions for portions of western North Dakota this afternoon through early this evening.

- Periods of snow are possible Thursday/Thursday night primarily over northern locations. Greatest chances for accumulation remains over and adjacent to the Turtle Mountains where 1 to 3 inches are possible, which combined with the wind could significantly reduce visibility.

- Snow again develops over much of the area Saturday into early Sunday. Greatest chances for impacts due to snow remain along and south of Interstate 94.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a strong embedded wave and upper level jet streak over southwestern Canada, with associated surface low pressure rapidly intensifying the past few hours in the lee of the Rockies over far southern Alberta. Lead embedded waves resulting in increasing clouds across the Northern Plains, with increasing radar returns over eastern Montana into western North Dakota as isentropic upglide increases ahead of the sfc low. Cloud bases remain elevated but are lowering, with a decent dry layer from the sfc up to 6K feet AGL, so suspect moisture is starting to reach the surface under the more enhanced returns.

Above mentioned S/WV and upper jet streak advance east-southeast this morning across the Rockies, with the center of the sfc low over northwestern North Dakota by roughly 18Z. S/WV becomes more defined during the day, closing off over the Upper Mississippi Valley of northern Minnesota by this evening, while a deep area of sfc low pressure advances east-southeast across northern into eastern ND this afternoon. As the above occurs, precipitation continues to spread east across the area this morning and afternoon, with the initial push this AM coming as snow or maybe even some light freezing rain considering WAA aloft above sub-freezing sfc temperatures. A transition towards mainly rain is then expected over many locations except the far north, where CAA on the backside of the low advances south. This transition to snow continues from north to south for any lingering precipitation mid to late afternoon and into the evening. We still expect very strong winds to develop south and on the backside of the deep sfc low this morning and through the afternoon, with BUFKIT soundings still showing a strong jet within the mixed layer and winds up to 60-65 knots (~70 mph) available to mix to the surface. Pressure rise bubble then advances across the region this evening, maintaining strong winds past 00Z. Thus no changes to the High Wind Warning which is in effect into this evening west and overnight east. For the Turtle Mountains and surrounding locations, up to 3 inches of snow still expected given the sfc low track, combined with winds gusting to 50 mph still forecast (perhaps stronger), so will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory there as is for blowing snow impacts. Near blizzard wording will be maintained, and an upgrade is not out of the question.

Storm Prediction Center has maintained a general thunderstorm outlook for western and central North Dakota today, with latest RAP indeed showing several hundred J/KG of CAPE (up to around 500) spreading southeast across the local area along and ahead of the main mid level wave this afternoon. Opted then to put a slight chance of thunder for the afternoon all locations, with the main CAPE push coming with any wrap-around rain or snow showers. Snow squall parameter peaks during the evening, but doesn't coincide with the best instability. Still, will monitor.

RAP, HRRR, and NBM have also come into better agreement with an area of very dry air advancing into western North Dakota after 18Z, with Min RH values in the 20-25% range over portions of western North Dakota south of the Missouri River coinciding with the very strong west/northwest winds. Our fire behavior calculations give us 3-4 hours of Red Flag conditions across McKenzie and Dunn counties and points south. Opted to then issue a Red Flag warning for this afternoon through early evening for my 9 west central and southwestern counties.

Strong west-northwest flow aloft for Friday, along with a sfc ridge of high pressure building across the central Dakotas. Cooler temperatures in the 20s and 30s along with medium snow chances mainly west and south central, west of the sfc ridge and underneath upper jet forcing.

Widespread snow chances quickly return on Saturday, when an upper level trough develops in response to right entrance region jet dynamics with a departing jet streak and left exit region forcing with an incoming strong jet nosing into the Montana Rockies. An associated lee side sfc low develops over eastern Wyoming/Colorado, then develops east into the Central Plains. A broad area of DivQ forcing and low/mid level frontogensis sets up on the north side of the sfc low track, bringing decent chances for snow across central and southern areas of the Northern Plains. GEFS and EC ensembles in fair agreement with a broad area of a 50-60 percent chance of at least 3" of snow along and mainly south of I-94. Depending on the eventual DivQ/Fn forcing linkage for banded precip, higher amounts are possible, but it is also possible areas to the south see more. thus uncertainty remains but impactful weather remains a possibility. This system departs the area through Sunday, but some gusty winds may linger along with some blowing snow.

Thereafter, a large and broad upper level ridge of high pressure is favored by ensembles to develop over the western CONUS next week, gradually moving east through the week. Resultant weather would be mainly dry conditions along with a moderate to strong warming trend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A clipper system will push into the area Thursday. Expect periods of snow to push into and through the area late tonight through Thursday morning, with a transition to rain later in the morning. The exception may be far northern North Dakota where precipitation may remain as snow. This could bring periods of MVFR to IFR visibility. Southerly winds will increase tonight, shifting west to northwest Thursday morning and increasing. Gusts to 50 kts will be possible over western locations late Thursday morning. West to northwest winds continue through the afternoon, with wind gusts to 70 mph possible over the area, the southwest and south central look to be favored for the strongest gusts Thursday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033- 040-041-043-044. High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021- 034-035-042-045-046. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ004-005-013. High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ012-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.