textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier weather returns through much of this week into early next week.

- Freezing temperatures expected over much of the area tonight, with freezing temperatures remaining possible over various parts of the area each night through Friday night.

- Gusty northwest winds expected Thursday, with some gusts to 45 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Some light echos on radar continue to lift through a small part of southwest and south central North Dakota, therefore have added some low precipitation chances to the forecast over these areas. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Current surface analysis places low over northeast Wisconsin, with high over southern Alberta. Upper level analysis places low over Nevada, with split flow over the western CONUS. Over our area, west-southwest flow remains in place with widespread cloud cover and occasional light drizzle. Some showers continue to lift through northwest South Dakota, with a few trying to push into our area. In addition, a few patches of fog with reduced visibility are noted.

For today, upper low wraps its way over the Arizona/Utah border, while most of our area remains under the influence of the northern stream. To start the day, a stray shower or two can not be ruled out along the southern border, with some patchy morning fog remaining possible throughout the area. As the day goes on, aforementioned surface high settles into the Northern Plains with skies clearing over our area from west to east. This will allow temperatures to drop off overnight tonight, with most locations reaching or falling below freezing. Therefore, expect freeze headlines will be issued later today to address this.

Generally westerly flow remains over our area through Wednesday, keeping conditions over the area dry. On Wednesday night, a surface low passes from Saskatchewan into Manitoba sweeping a late night cold front into the area. This may lead to some light rain showers along the South Dakota border overnight, but the main concern will be stronger winds developing on Thursday.

On Thursday, northwest winds will be on the increase over the area in the wake of the cold front, with current guidance and forecast soundings suggesting wind gusts to 45 mph possible. Cooler air pulls into the area, with high pressure then settling in overnight, possibly bringing a hard freeze to parts of the area.

A warming trend is then on tap through the end of the week as ridge over the western CONUS pushes over the plains on Saturday ahead of a notable short wave, with highs possibly pushing into the 70s over parts of our area on Saturday. Wave then pushes mainly north of us, with temperatures remaining quite mild for the start of the upcoming week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings continue across western and central North Dakota, and are expected to remain through much of the day and possibly into the evening hours before improving. Through early this morning, some patchy fog will also be possible, possibly reducing visibility to IFR levels.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.