textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Wide range of high temperatures from north to south today as a cold front moves southward across the state.

- Periods of rain and snow later today through Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow south central and east.

- Breezy today and tonight, then windy on Friday.

- Well below average temperatures Friday and Saturday, followed by a temperatures trending warmer Sunday through the middle portions of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Modified cloud cover and winds with this update, otherwise the forecast remains in decent shape for this morning. See below for further discussion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Currently, west-southwest flow aloft with weak ridging across the Central Plains into far south central Canada, and a large/deep upper level low over the Pacific Northwest/northern Intermountain West. Lead embedded impulses ejecting out of the upper low and low level forcing north of surface low pressure centered over southeast Montana continue to trigger shower activity from northeast Montana to across northwest North Dakota and southern Saskatchewan early this morning. While most of the precipitation is falling as rain in ND, snow is being observed at times far north and there remains a chance as well for some light freezing rain this morning given warm/above freezing temperatures aloft and below freezing surface air temperatures in the upper 20s.

This morning's showers across the north will lift into Canada by 15Z or so with the mid level forcing. Afterwards, the upper low to our west will continue east today, with the base digging into the Desert Southwest, morphing into a split flow pattern by this evening. Associated sfc low now over southeast MT, scoots east along the ND/SD border area today, while the aforementioned surface cold front slowly pushes southward. Temperatures behind the front colder in the 30s and 40s north, and much warmer ahead of the FROPA in the 70s far south central and across the southern half of the James River valley. Will maintain near critical fire weather wording in the HWO across the southern James Valley of ND where Min RH drops to ~25%, temperatures approach 80F, and will see a wind shift from south to north- northwest in the afternoon.

Northern stream mid level low moves into southern Saskatchewan this evening, while a 700mb trough moves east into southwest and central ND. Strong frontogenesis is depicting by all guidance developing across southwest/central ND later today into tonight, though DivQ forcing is lacking. However, a strong upper level jet streak will also be lifting northeast, with the right entrance region riding over the 700mb trough after 00Z. This combination will bring additional precipitation chances, initially starting in the west later this afternoon, then rapidly increasing in coverage and passing from west to east across the state this evening through Friday morning. Initially expect mainly rain, then transitioning to mainly snow in the evening and overnight hours as colder air is pulled south- southeast. We are still forecasting overall light snow accumulations, though the strong frontogenesis and mid/upper level jet forcing, despite lacking a decent DivQ signal, may be enough to generate some heavier precip bands. NBM probs of at least an inch of snow range 40 to 60 percent from south central into the northern James River Valley, with 10 percent or less chances for 4 inches. Still can't entirely discount a band of heavier snow setting up.

With the strong forcing, SPC also expanded the general t-storm area into parts of the state for later today/evening. Makes sense given lightning activity now over northeast MT.

Upper trough/split flow pattern migrates east Friday into Saturday, with mainly dry weather expected but temperatures averaging well below normal (Highs Friday in the 30s and highs Sat in the 30s and 40s).

West-northwest flow aloft develops later this weekend into next week, with this flow pattern bringing mild Pacific air into the Northern Plains and resulting in temperatures quickly moderating back into the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday, and likely into Wednesday. While mainly dry weather forecast, can't rule out any diurnally driven showers with any wave that may move through.

An active weather pattern is then favored to end the week next week, along with temperatures trending cooler, with ensembles showing a closed low or upper trough approaching from the west.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon across western and central North Dakota. The exception may be the far northwest and north central this morning, where MVFR-IFR ceilings will approach from the north and may impact KXWA and KMOT. Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings then develop this evening into the overnight at all terminals, as a weather disturbance brings rain and snow chances to the region. Generally light easterly winds early this morning, then northeast winds across the north and southerly winds in the south, both becoming gusty up to 25 knots. Winds then turn northerly across the forecast area this afternoon as a cold front pushes south, with winds remaining gusty to 25 knots.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.