textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms over much of western and central North Dakota late this afternoon and tonight.

- Another round of scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms is possible on Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Mainly just some minor updates for pops early this morning. 850mb FG forcing, llj and possibly gravity waves helping to keep convection lingering around the Turtle Mountains early this morning. Isolated convection also extends south southwest to near Bismarck. Not expecting severe convection this morning but a stronger cell with some small hail can't be ruled out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some severe, continue across northwest and portions of north central ND early this morning. The convection is along a surface boundary that extends from far southwest into north central ND, and is a focus form moisture convergence. In addition, very unstable aloft remains over this area with strong shear and a vigorous low level jet in place. Think the threat will trend downward, but the next hour or two could certainly support a few additional severe thunderstorm warnings.

Early morning convection should give way to Partly to mostly sunny skies and hot and humid conditions. A strong southerly wind will continue reinforce the humid conditions and help set the stage for another round of severe weather late this afternoon through this evening for most of western and central ND, but could linger into the early overnight hours over eastern portions of central ND.

SPC continues to advertise an enhanced risk across much of southwest and central ND in their latest day 1 outlook. This is similar to our thinking and we will continue to message 2 inch hail and 70 mph winds.

A very unstable airmass will be in place across western and into central ND Sunday afternoon. While the atmosphere will be capped initially, an approaching upper low and its attendant cold front will provide the forcing for ascent to initiate convection over western ND late Sunday afternoon. Deep layer shear of 40-50 knots will be in place with very steep lapse rates. This environment will be favorable for supercell development. The more robust storms would be able to support large hail to 2 inches, or possibly larger. There looks to be a limited timeframe for discrete cells given the orientation of the deep shear vectors with the cold front. However, very large hail, damaging wind gusts and and possibly a tornado can't be ruled out Sunday afternoon over western ND. A quick transition to a linear system is expected and thereafter the main threat, but during the transition there will may be a mixed mode of a linear system and rotating supercells. Once the transition is complete the linear system tracks quickly east across the state. Previous shifts have stated that a number of CAMS have shown bowing segments pushing ahead of the main line. This would indicate strong winds initially but perhaps a weakening of the line as it progresses east into a less favorable shear environment. We'll see how this plays out.

Once convection exits the are late Sunday night, we should see a a brief break in the action on Monday, although a few stronger storms can not be ruled out. It will be much cooler Monday with high sin the mid 70s to mid 80s.

On Tuesday, another upper level trough approaches the area with strong bulk shear and a very unstable airmass in place. Another round of severe weather is possible, similar to today, but perhaps a bit farther east. There is still a lot of time before Tuesday so we won't get to specific. However with SPC already indicating an enhanced risk of severe storms over central ND. This does not happen very often. CSU Machine learning and NSSL machine learning pages are also indicating an early enhanced threat. We will begin by messaging 70 mph winds and 2 inch hail with this event, leaving room to go higher if needed.

The rest of the week remains active, but with the upper low in the vicinity. It will turn a bit cooler, which could dampen the severe risk a bit. We'll see how things play out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Isolated convection ongoing to begin the 12Z TAF period over western and central ND. Expect this activity to diminish this morning. Strong south to southeast winds will develop over central ND to day with mainly scattered mid and high clouds. Late this afternoon and tonight strong to severe storms will move west to east across the forecast area, associated with a cold front moving through. Strong gusty and erratic winds can be expected with any thunderstorms, along with MVFR ceilings and visibilities in heavy downpours. The front will shift wind westerly. Areas of MVFR ceilings are possible behind the convection late tonight into early Monday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ004-005-012-013-020-022-023-025- 035>037-042-046>048-050-051-058>062.