textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will continue to taper from west to east across central ND early this morning. - Mainly dry today through Sunday, although low chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms return to the southwest Sunday afternoon. - Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and isolated thunderstorms track across the area Sunday night.

- Near daily low to medium chances (20-40%) chances for rain expected for the work week. - Below average temperatures this weekend, followed by a brief warm up on Monday. Cooler Tuesday an Wednesday, then warming later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers continue to track east across central ND early this morning. Surface low pressure was situated around the Turtle Mountains with a southerly surface flow into the James River Valley. Back to the west, a northerly surface flow was bringing low stratus into western ND.

For today, showers are expected to exit the Turtle Mountains area into the James River Valley by mid morning, if not sooner. The majority of the day is expected to be rain free. However a sprinkle or brief shower can not be ruled out in the far west this afternoon. Look for highs mostly in the 70s today with some lower 80s possible in the southern James River Valley. Expect cloudy skies this morning, with patchy fog, especially north. Skies are expected to slowly clear from west to east this afternoon. The north central into the northern James River Valley may not see much of the sun until late afternoon. It will also be breezy late this morning and this afternoon, especially over central ND with northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and some gusts to around 30 mph.

Skies will clear tonight as high pressure builds over the state. Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

A northwest upper level flow become established on Sunday. As surface high pressure tracks east during the day, we see return flow into western ND Sunday afternoon. The atmosphere becomes slightly unstable in the southwest Sunday afternoon and shortwave energy begins to impede upon the state as it works its way through a mean western upper ridge. Bulk shear is initially modest Sunday but increases Sunday afternoon to 30 to 40 knots or so, It's possible we could see an afternoon thunderstorm in the far southwest Sunday with possibly some small hail or locally gusty winds. Currently the SPC has a marginal risk for severe storms (level 2 out of 5) just to the south, in western South Dakota. The CSU machine learning model does bring a low risk for severe hail a bit farther north, into southwest ND. Later Sunday night another shortwave tracks southeast across the forecast area, bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. Shear will remain moderate to strong but instability is modest at best. Current thinking is that the threat for stronger storms will be low.

We see a brief warm-up Monday, especially in the southwest where high could reach the mid 80s. A northern Stream shortwave and attendant cold front, rotating around a Hudson Bay low will bring a cold front through the area with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday, with cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. A northwest upper flow remains over the area through the rest of the work week. After Wednesday, the Hudson Bay low moves off to the east and a western upper level ridge become better established just to our west. This should bring a warming trend as we go through the end of the work week and into next weekend. With a northwest upper flow continuing, a low threat for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Showers continue across central North Dakota with a few thunderstorms south of KBIS, moving eastward. No VCTS will be needed at KBIS to begin the 06Z TAF period though. Heavy downpours could still reduce visibility to MVFR/IFR levels in the convection south of KBIS, but these should remain south of KBIS and KJMS. Rain should diminish from west to east through tonight.

Low ceilings are forecast to spread across much of western and central North Dakota into Saturday morning, with IFR and occasional LIFR over KXWA and KMOT. Fog may also reduce visibility to at least IFR levels tonight into Saturday morning, mainly across the northwest and north central. The low clouds and fog should lift and/or scatter by around late morning/early afternoon Saturday, with VFR conditions expected thereafter. Winds will become northwesterly around 10-15 kts on Saturday, with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.