textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Long duration of bitterly cold temperatures with dangerous to life-threatening wind chills through the weekend.

- Coldest conditions are expected this evening through Friday morning, with low temperatures around 25 to 35 below zero and wind chills around 45 to 55 below zero.

- Temperatures favored to warm next week, but could still remain below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Main update early this evening was to sky cover, based on latest satellite imagery and trends. Otherwise, very cold night ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The focus of the forecast period is bitterly cold temperatures, with life-threatening wind chills around 45 to 55 below zero.

This afternoon, deep cyclonic flow aloft dominated the synoptic pattern across the Northern Plains, with a closed upper low analyzed over Ontario. A stout Arctic high pressure continued to expand over the southern Canadian Prairies into North Dakota, although a modest surface pressure gradient due to the center of the high still being decently far away has kept northwest winds breezy through the day. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for northern and parts of central North Dakota east of the Missouri River, where wind chills are well into the 40 to 50 below zero range, due to the aforementioned breezy winds and air temperatures anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees below zero. There are some isolated cloud streamers across the forecast area, and they could be producing some flurries, but at this point not including mention of them in the gridded forecast.

Tonight into Friday is currently favored to be the coldest part of the extended cold air outbreak as the Arctic high becomes more centered over the state. Counties west and south of the Missouri River get added into the Extreme Cold Warning this evening. We did blend down closer to the 50th percentile of the NBM, which produced overnight lows in the 25 to 35 degrees below zero range. NBM probabilities have a ~15 percent chance of lows reaching the 40 below zero threshold in northwest North Dakota, so would not be surprised to see a few mesonet sites reach this, especially as winds are forecast to drop off in western North Dakota as the surface high begins to slide through. With life-threatening wind chills as low as 55 below zero, we encourage you to limit time outdoors if at all possible, and if you have to be outside or are traveling, make sure to dress in layers and cover exposed skin, have an emergency kit in your car, and inform others of your travel plans. Frostbite can occur in as little as 5 to 10 minutes with these kind of temperatures, and be aware of the warning signs of hypothermia.

Highs on Friday is where we made the most significant changes in the short term. The deterministic NBM continues to be well on the warm side of the ensemble spread, likely due to short-term bias correction based on the recent mild period we experienced. Because of both this and pattern recognition with the location of the surface high, we dropped forecast highs closer to the 50th percentile, leading to highs mainly in the teens below zero. Also on Friday, a shortwave is progged to slide to our southwest along a baroclinic zone extending from Montana to South Dakota, with blended POPs keeping any main chances of precipitation outside of the forecast area, although can't rule out some very light snow in our far southwest. The main impact to the forecast area will be increasing clouds through the day.

Temperatures "moderate" Friday night into Saturday, with highs on Saturday rising to the single digits above zero across the southern half of the forecast area, before guidance wants to bring a reinforcing shot of cold air as a shortwave drops through the state. This also could potentially bring some light snow Saturday night into Sunday morning, with low to medium chances for a dusting of snow across western and south central North Dakota. Overnight lows Saturday night drop back into the 15 to 30 below zero range, with wind chills in the 40 to 50 below range as the Extreme Cold Warning continues across the north and parts of central North Dakota. Outside of the warning area, wind chills will likely be within advisory criteria.

We finally start to see more improvement Sunday and Sunday night, although north and east wind chills will still be approaching 30 below zero before temperatures warm up further on Monday due to ridging beginning to build to our west. Forecast highs on Monday jump into the single digits to teens above zero, although this looks to be more short-lived than initially thought. Previous iterations of the NBM were more confident on a slow warming trend next week, but recent runs want to keep us on the cool side of a baroclinic zone that will favor temperatures below average. With the persistent northwest flow through this period, the expectation is that at some point there will be embedded waves moving through and producing chances for light snow across the state, although this is too low predictability beyond a couple days out to have any specific details at this juncture.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Low VFR/MVFR ceilings remain possible this evening, followed by VFR for the remainder of the period. Northwest winds through Friday morning, then trending variable Fri afternoon and evening, before becoming more southerly Friday night.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for NDZ001>005- 009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.