textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected in western and much of central North Dakota today. There is a high chance of critical fire weather conditions Thursday through Friday across all of western and central North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- Strong winds are expected beginning in western North Dakota late this afternoon, and across all of western and central North Dakota tonight. The strongest overall winds are then expected to persist Thursday through Friday.

- 20 to 30 percent chance of showers tonight in the west. Increased chances (40 to 70 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday night, possibly lingering into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 519 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Loosely organized surface low pressure currently analyzed over southwestern Canada will gradually slide eastward while simultaneously winding up over the next few days. A warm and quickly trailing cold frontal boundary off the low will approach western ND today. This will tighten the pressure gradient and result in windy conditions out of the southeast in western and parts of central North Dakota today. Southeasterly winds this afternoon could approach advisory criteria in the far northwest, though with pressure falls and a lack of CAA, seem likely to stay short most locations, most of the time. These strong winds will expand eastward across the state through the night tonight. A few WAA showers are possible tonight mainly in western North Dakota. However, with model forecast soundings maintaining ample dry air in the lower levels, suspect most any rain that reaches the surface will be light and well short of a wetting rain.

Late tonight through Thursday morning, cold frontal boundary will pass through switching winds from a southeasterly to a downsloping westerly direction. Moderate pressure rises and strong CAA are favored to pass through western North Dakota. Both pressure rises and CAA may weaken to some degree as they pass eastward. Nevertheless, expect very windy conditions across most of the state Thursday. The strongest winds are overall favored in the northwest, therefore issued a High Wind Watch Thursday morning through Thursday evening, which matches the strongest EFI signal at this point.

Very windy conditions will generally persist Thursday night, although there may be somewhat of a lull along and south of I94 where the pressure gradient won't be quite as strong. Either way, winds are expected to ramp up again for the day Friday. For Friday night, surface low pressure will move off towards eastern Ontario/James Bay. At this point, winds will become light across most of the state through Saturday.

Confidence is increasing that low pressure will develop over Colorado helping to potentially advect some Gulf moisture into at least parts of the state. The latest NBM run has a 30 to 70 percent probability of precipitation Saturday night through Sunday evening, with residual 20 to 40 percent chances Sunday night into Monday. The highest probabilities overall are during the daytime hours Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the day Wednesday. Southeasterly winds will increase across the western half of the state, with gusts up to 40 kts in the far northwest late Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. A few showers are possible in far western North Dakota Wednesday evening. One other note is that LLWS may enter the picture in far western ND Wednesday evening before expanding across the state Wednesday night beyond this TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 519 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Loosely organized low pressure currently analyzed over southwestern Canada will propagate eastward as it winds up over the next few days. This will result in very windy conditions across the state, initially in western and parts of central ND today, and then across the entire state tonight through Friday. In addition, dry conditions will continue across the entire forecast area, though humidity values will be somewhat higher in the northern half of the state Thursday and Friday compared to the southern half.

With the combination of very windy and dry conditions, expanded the Red Flag Warning a tier of zones/counties east into the north central today. Also issued a Fire Weather Watch for all of western through central North Dakota Thursday through Friday. Since the current forecast maintains 8 to 12 hours of critical fire weather conditions for most zones Thursday and Friday, and since recoveries are limited Thursday night, the watch is continuous with no gap even if conditions will briefly improve.

Some relief may arrive to the area later this weekend as models hint that at least some Gulf moisture may advect into the state. This favors widespread wetting rains across most locations. The highest probability for wetting rains is during the day Sunday where most of the state has a 40 to 60 percent chance in both the morning and afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021- 031>034-040>045. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050- 051. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056.