textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures today, with highs running about 5 to 10 degrees above average.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening over south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. A few could be severe with ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts being the main threats.

- Low to medium chances (mainly 20 to 50 percent) for precipitation late Sunday into the upcoming work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 950 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Above normal temperatures will be found today, with highs in the 80s and 90s. Smoke aloft will be found across much of the state today, possibly mixing down to the surface across the west. Very dry conditions with shifting and briefly breezy winds could bring some near critical fire weather conditions in the west. Meanwhile isolated thunderstorms are possible in the southeast this evening. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Quiet weather continues, therefore no changes needed to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Current surface analysis places low stretching from southeast Montana through eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado, while high stretches from Saskatchewan southeastward into the Central Plains and Midwest. Upper level analysis places broad high encompassing the southwestern CONUS with flat ridge over the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies, while a low remains over northeast Manitoba into northwest Ontario. Over our area, quiet weather continues in west-northwest flow.

For today, warmer air lifts into the area as aforementioned surface low meanders easterly, which also will result in increased moisture mainly over eastern parts of our area. In the meantime, the southwest (particularly the far southwest) remains very dry. With the low passing by, winds shift northerly and increase over the west by late afternoon, bringing near critical fire weather conditions to much of our far west. With that said, focus then shifts towards south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. With the increase moisture, expect increased instability with latest guidance suggesting CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/Kg by late afternoon/early evening, with 0-6 Km shear pushing around 40-50kts. This sets the stage for severe development but the fly in the ointment may be forcing, as that will be rather limited though latest guidance does indicate a couple weak short waves possibly moving through. Therefore, expect convection to be mainly isolated, but if it does occur the severe threat will be there. For now will advertise the potential for ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

Temperatures will be cooler for Sunday with a temperature gradient over the area as we expect mid 70s over the far northwest into the Turtle Mountains region, while 80s will stretch along and southeast of the Missouri River. Modest easterly winds should escort a little more low level moisture into the southwest and result in higher humidity values. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into the evening and possibly overnight as a series of modest short waves and an inverted through move in.

Temperatures look to remain around to a bit below average on Monday and Tuesday, then cooling below average for the later part of the work week, while a variety of disturbances moving through west-northwest flow keep a daily chance for precipitation in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Wildfire smoke may occasionally reduce visibility to MVFR levels over southwest and south central North Dakota today into this evening. Over parts of far south central North Dakota into the James River Valley, isolated to wildly scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.