textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible around the Turtle Mountains area into this morning.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are favored for most areas this week, with highs generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

- Temperatures may trend cooler next week with a more active weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

This morning, broad troughing existed off the western CONUS coast, with quasi-zonal flow across much of the country. A shallow northern stream wave was progressing through the southwestern Canadian Prairies, with secondary weak troughing over the northeast leading to northwest flow across the Dakotas. Surface high pressure was analyzed northeast of the forecast area, with a stationary front extending across eastern North Dakota, demarked by a modest swatch of low level clouds seen on nighttime satellite imagery. We continue to monitor for fog development in the Turtle Mountains and surrounding area, with reduced visibilities being reported in northeast North Dakota, but so far automated sensors and NDDOT webcams do not reveal anything in our area. The rest of the forecast area has clear skies and generally light southerly winds this morning, with lows in the 20s.

Seasonably mild and benign weather continues today through the rest of the week as the upper flow pattern stays relatively consistent, with a somewhat diffuse surface pressure pattern. Highs today will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s, with the exception of the Turtle Mountains area, especially if low cloud cover persists in this area like RAP forecast soundings are indicating. High-res guidance wants to keep low clouds and potentially fog across eastern North Dakota tonight into Thursday morning, which could bleed into the Turtle Mountains to James River Valley corridor with how much low-level moisture is around.

NBM temperature percentiles only have around a 5 degree spread for high temperatures today through Saturday, indicating strong ensemble agreement in the temperature forecast. Aside from the far north central, expect highs peaking in the lower 40s to lower 50s on Friday and Saturday. Percentile spread begins to increase next week but for Sunday and Monday, still good confidence in these mild temperatures to continue. We continue to carry a dry forecast, although cannot rule out a low impact shortwave bringing some light precipitation to the area at one point or another.

We finally start to see some more significant changes coming the middle of next week. Cluster analysis continues to be consistent on troughing developing somewhere off the west coast / across the western CONUS, with southwesterly flow in response across the Northern Plains, a favorable pattern for more active weather. GEFS ensemble members are tilting towards a deeper and more potent trough but the overall outcome at this juncture remains the same, that temperatures will cool off and precipitation chances, including chances for accumulating snow, will increase. The latest blended guidance produces a broad 25 to 50 percent chance for at least two inches of snow over 48 hours mid next week, and even these lower snow accumulations would bring a significant change from the weather we've been having the first half of February.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Low ceilings and fog are possible across parts of north central and eastern North Dakota later this evening into Wednesday morning. This includes a low chance for categorical flight restrictions as low as LIFR ceilings and/or visibility reaching KJMS and KMOT Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are otherwise expected across western and central North Dakota through the forecast period, along with light winds turning from southwesterly to southerly.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.