textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening.

- A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week into early next week, with many locations exceeding 100 degrees Saturday through Monday. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Saturday through Monday.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected through the hot spell.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current surface analysis places cool front stretching through northwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places westerly flow over our area, with a few short waves noted in the flow. Over our area, a few weak showers continue to linger over parts of Wells and Foster Counties.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, aforementioned frontal boundary combined the short wave will serve as the focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon into tonight. The question is how much convection will develop given the modest forcing. With that said, a very unstable atmosphere will be in place, with noted RAP CAPE values around 2000-4000 J/KG through central North Dakota/James River Valley at the time expected convective initiation. Deep layer shear will be ample for rotating updrafts, and oriented perpendicular to the frontal boundary suggesting rapidly developing supercell thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest chance for scattered severe weather did shift east a bit from earlier covering parts of southwest North Dakota, along with most of central ND and the James River Valley. Storms then push off to the east through the night.

Thereafter, focus shifts towards the hot temperatures expected to plague our area this weekend into next week. Broad upper level high builds over the central and much of the western CONUS this weekend, remaining into the upcoming work week. High temperatures climb into the triple digits over many locations on Saturday, and over most of the area on Sunday, with triple digits remaining over many locations into Monday. With this, dew points remain around 60, so an elevated humidity factor will come into play. Therefore, the Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect. With the upper high in place, expect mainly dry weather, but given the extreme temperatures would not be surprised to see a random thunderstorm pop up somewhere during this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the night time hours before moving east. Some of these storms may be severe, with large hail and strong wind gusts. These storms have been addressed with PROB30 groups in most TAFs. After the thunderstorm threat ends, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with light winds.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025- 031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.