textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to low chances for showers and thunderstorms today (20 to 50 percent). Isolated severe thunderstorms possible with quarter size hail and 60 mph winds as the main threat.

- Low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-20 percent mainly central and east) during the day on Independence Day. Active weather continues through early next week.

- High temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Southwest flow aloft continues today as the Northern Plains sit upstream of a broad upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. The speed of this flow in the mid to upper levels is not particularly strong which is bringing some forecast challenges in regards to thunderstorm location, timing, and strength through tonight. The convective setup is characterized by adequate low level moisture with widespread surface dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Combined with modest mid-level lapse rates, an MLCAPE field of 1000-2000 J/kg is likely, with the major caveat that it will require adequate surface heating. A batch of thunderstorms moved into the far southwest portions of the state earlier this morning while a broad stratus deck remains early this afternoon across the north central portions. This uncertainty in instability today has brought strong inconsistency between short term models and model runs today. If convection does form this afternoon/evening under pockets of stronger surface heating, a marginal severe weather threat with the possibility of 60 mph winds and quarter size hail should materialize. The weak flow aloft keeps shear on the lower end but not inadequate for severe weather. Again this severe possibility remains highly conditional with uncertainty in convective development this afternoon/evening. There remains a real possibility that the introduction of additional thunderstorms may hold off until activity moves in from Montana late this evening.

On Saturday flow aloft becomes more westerly before ridging starts to set in. This will trend thunderstorm chances downward, especially in western portions of the state where dry air will move in. Lingering moisture and cyclonic flow in the central to east will come with a low but non-zero chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

The aforementioned ridging trend will bring hotter temperatures on Sunday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This ridge will be flattened Sunday afternoon and night by a crossing shortwave to the north, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms along an associated low level front. With the currently modeled moisture and shear fields as well as 00Z machine learning guidance, a severe thunderstorm threat may arise, especially in northern areas of the state.

The coming week will continue to see active flow with periods of thunderstorm activity, with some shifting in model to model runs in regards to location and timing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Low stratus will slowly lift over portions of northwest and central ND early this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over western and central ND this afternoon and evening. A lot of uncertainty in coverage and location so PROB30 periods were used. A few of these storms could be severe, with possible one-inch diameter hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. Otherwise, another concern would be IFR to LIFR ceilings in the wake of the departing showers/storms later tonight over western and central ND, lingering into Saturday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.