textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will continue across northern North Dakota late this evening, perhaps spreading southeast into the James River Valley later tonight before dissipating by Friday morning.

- Temperatures warm back up to seasonably mild for the weekend.

- After a dry weekend, a more active pattern returns next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 943 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Snow has become much weaker overall in the past 1 to 3 hours, and the southern flank has completely diminished. Meanwhile, a separate area of light snow associated with a trailing 700 mb vort max has entered northwest North Dakota. Model guidance from earlier in the day did show the potential for these 2 distinct areas of light snow late this evening. The snow should continue across northern North Dakota late this evening, with the 2 separate areas possibly merging as the mid to upper level shortwave digs into the Red River Valley, then may shift into the James River Valley overnight while gradually diminishing.

The only other forecast item of note through tonight is the potential for gusty northwest winds in the cold air advection regime to the south and west of the parent low pressure system. A brief period of gusts up to 30-40 mph could spread across western North Dakota late this evening, then shift into south central North Dakota later in the night.

UPDATE Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A band of snow continues to move eastward through western and now into central North Dakota. Visibility as been routinely reduced to one half mile or less, but only for a brief period of time (less than one hour). Radar shows a broader area of snow with an embedded narrow band of higher snowfall rates across the north, with only the narrower band extending southward to the South Dakota border. Webcam imagery south of I-94 suggests visibility is not being impacted as much there, and there could have been some rain mixing on account of warmer temperatures. Most CAMs want to diminish the narrower band this evening while maintaining a broader area of light snow in north central North Dakota, spreading southeastward later in the night as the shortwave digs into the Red River Valley. The southern extent of the snow is not being handled well by current model guidance, so we were more aggressive with increasing PoPs over the next 1-3 hours. Some locations across the north could pick up a quick inch of snowfall through this evening, mainly on grassy surfaces.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This afternoon, zonal flow aloft was in place over the Northern Plains, with a weak surface low in central Montana, south of broad high pressure in the Canadian Prairies. An area of light radar returns has been ongoing in northeast Montana, with snow observed in the Glasgow area, associated with an embedded upper vort max and some low-level warm air advection. As this slides east, chances for light snow will increase through the afternoon and evening. Watching upstream observations, snow is coming in a bit heavier than expected, although for a brief period of time. We did nudge up QPF amounts this afternoon and evening, as some locations in northwest and north central North Dakota could see up to a half inch of accumulation with this system if it maintains forcing. If temperatures warm up enough in the southwest, this area could see a little rain instead of snow.

Precipitation chances taper off late tonight as the progressive wave exits to the east, with lows mainly in the teens. Northwest flow will keep temperatures still a bit seasonably cool on Friday, with highs ranging from around freezing in the Turtle Mountains to the upper 40s southwest, with decreasing clouds. Saturday and Sunday will be quite pleasant under the influence of zonal flow aloft and broad surface high pressure. High temperatures these two days will be in the lower 40s north to mid 60s south. Minimum relative humidity will drop into the lower 20 percent range across the southwest from a drier air mass, but with winds generally at 10 to 15 mph, should keep a limit on any fire weather concerns.

There are a variety of solutions still at play for next week, although confidence continues to be focused on a more active pattern through next week. The most dominant cluster group favors troughing off the western CONUS coast by Tuesday evening, leading to downstream southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains, which is typically our more favorable synoptic pattern for active weather. This cluster group is also the warmer of the solutions. The remaining ensemble members are more split between either a weak shortwave moving through or almost northwesterly flow, which is the coldest of the three scenarios. This explains the extremely large temperature spread in NBM percentiles on Tuesday, before there is increasing confidence in the overall pattern for the middle of the work week, with cooler than normal temperatures to start April. Spread then increases again for late in the week although there is still moderate confidence in the more active southwest flow, with CIPs analogs also favoring a wetter than normal period through the first few days of April.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 943 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Light snow will continue across northern North Dakota through the evening, primarily with IFR improving to MVFR visibility at MVFR to low VFR ceilings. The area of snow is forecast to shift southeastward and slowly diminish through the night and into Friday morning. The snow could reach KJMS after 06Z, but it may be more of an intermittent snowfall by that time. Widespread low VFR to MVFR ceilings will also move across the state from west to east through the night, departing central North Dakota by around 12Z and KJMS shortly thereafter. Once the snow ends and low clouds depart, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

A brief period of gusty northwest winds as high as around 30 kts could move through western and south central North Dakota late this evening through tonight. The eastern half of the state will then see northwest winds around 10-15 kts persist on Friday, while the western half sees winds turn to the west- southwest around 10 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.