textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue through Monday, with daily highs generally in the 30s northeast to 50s south.

- Confidence in accumulating snow continues to increase next Tuesday through Thursday.

- Cooling trend expected next week, but still near average temperatures through the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 844 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

No major changes are needed for this update. Current conditions and trends have been blended into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The only notable forecast change for this update was to add a patchy fog mention to the Turtle Mountains area late tonight into Saturday morning. Virtually all guidance that simulates surface visibility shows this potential, and there is support from forecast soundings for fog formation, but models have been a little too aggressive with fog there over the past several nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Currently a weak low pressure in Arizona is causing split flow starting to form in the western half of the CONUS. In the southern half, the flow is more of a ridge. In the Northwest and Northern Plains, zonal flow is taking over.

The rest of this weekend that zonal flow will continue, leading to temperatures in the 30s northeast to mid 50s elsewhere. Sunday morning a trough and low pressure system will start to move on shore in the West Coast. The flow in the Northern Plains will continue to stay zonal, so temperatures will stay on course in that well above normal range.

Through Monday the flow turns southwest and become diffluent. By Monday evening that trough will kick out a Colorado Low from the Rocky Mountains. Chances for rain and snow look to begin early Tuesday morning when the low travels into South Dakota. The biggest forecast change over the last 24 hours is the rain/snow line continuing to get pushed south. With the latest update this afternoon, the rain/snow line is mostly on the South Dakota Border with surface temperatures cooling faster across North Dakota. Tuesday will also be windy as the pressure gradient force kicks in across the state. The heaviest snow could last through Wednesday morning, then lighter snow could linger through Thursday as an Alberta Clipper slides in the back side. 48 hour snow totals from the main storm continue to increase. NBM probabilities have a medium (40-60%) chance of at least 4 inches along and north of the Interstate. For 8 inches it drops to a 30 percent chance in the north central, centered on Minot. The global deterministic models continue to have more than 8 inches which may not be real.

Temperatures will cool back to near or below normal on the backside of this trough into next weekend. Expect temperatures in the teens in the north to lower 30s or upper 20s south.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 844 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Patchy fog could once again develop across parts of northern and eastern North Dakota later tonight into Saturday morning, but is not expected at any of the TAF sites in our forecast area. Winds will generally be westerly at around 5-10 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.