textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions over much of western North Dakota this afternoon and early evening.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through the work week with a cool-down this weekend.

- Dry conditions through Thursday, with an unsettled weather pattern to end the week bringing low to medium precipitation chances and increasing winds.

UPDATE

Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Wind gusts are starting to drop off out west, but breezy sustained winds will continue for the next few hours. No updates are needed at this time as quiet weather continues across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Currently, quasi-zonal flow aloft with surface high pressure to our east and a lee side sfc trough to our west. This pattern results in south/southeasterly return flow with daytime mixing resulting in a few wind gusts up to around 30 mph over parts of western North Dakota. Afternoon temperatures are in the 60s across the local area, along with a clear sky. Near critical fire weather conditions west where the breezy south/southeast winds coincide with RH values in the 20s.

Broad upper level ridging persists over the central CONUS through the middle of the the week, with a quasi-zonal flow pattern remaining over the Northern Plains. Dry weather and continued above normal temperatures in the 60s result (normal highs for third week of Oct are in the low/mid 50s). Afternoon highs peak Thursday and Friday in the 70s, when the upper ridge amplifies across the Great Plains in response to high amplitude troughing over the western United States. Would not be surprised to see a few lower 80s Thu or Friday for highs depending on cloud cover or other factors, as boundary layer temperatures warm to around 25C (in comparison, boundary layer temps today are in the low/mid teens C). Also on Friday, increasing south/southwesterly flow aloft will see an embedded wave lifting out of the western CONUS trough, resulting in showers with some instability and shear present.

Aforementioned trough lifts northeast across the region early this coming weekend, trending temperatures cooler and increasing precipitation chances. Western CONUS ridge is projected to rebuild behind the upper trough thereafter, though our flow pattern remains uncertain (zonal or northwesterly).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will remain out of the southeast with wind gusts dropping off this evening. Winds will remain light and out of the southwest overnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.