textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to slightly below average temperatures Saturday and below average temperatures Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms in the west Saturday evening through Saturday night. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances expected Sunday.

- A gradual warming trend through next week, along with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

No adjustments to the forecast were needed at the time of this mid evening update, as quiet weather persists across the forecast area. Previously mentioned isolated showers have exited to the east or have dissipated, while gusty northwest winds have become light.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Generally quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota, though an isolated pop-up shower or two lingers over portions of far north central North Dakota at this time. Shower activity is expected to end as we head into the early evening. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds from 15 to 20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH linger over the northwest and central, though are expected to quickly diminish over the next few hours we lose peak diurnal mixing, and as a center of high pressure slides in from across the west. No major adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time, as it remains in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft continues to prevail with a surface low passing from northern Minnesota towards the Great Lakes Region. Embedded shortwave energy and cyclonic flow at the surface are forcing isolated showers and a few thunderstorms east of Highway 83. With the shortwave quickly passing through and weak forcing otherwise, these are already showing a decrease in coverage and should end within the next couple to few hours, though a few may linger until after peak heating, especially in the north central.

Dry conditions are then expected tonight through most of the day Saturday. After which, initially elongated low pressure off the lee of the Rockies will pass west to east towards the end of this weekend and into early next week. That said, it is progged to break into two separate surface circulations. The more southern low will churn from the Southern Plains through to the East Coast, which is where most any severe weather is likely to materialize. The second will pass through southern Canada/North Dakota. Combined with forcing from low pressure aloft, this will produce increasing precipitation chances starting Saturday evening and persisting through Tuesday. However, there will be multiple distinct waves with the highest probabilities of precipitation being Sunday through Sunday evening in the western half of the state. Then again Monday afternoon through Monday night with transitory high precipitation chances from west to east. Overall, the threat of severe weather through Tuesday is low, while overall precipitation totals are not expected to be impressively high. Of course, localized higher amounts of an inch or more are always possible with any stronger or slower moving thunderstorms that may develop.

Beyond Tuesday evening, the NBM is mostly dry through Thursday. However, with another upper low favored to develop on the lee of the Canadian Rockies, additional embedded shortwaves could produce occasional showers and thunderstorms anyways. The NBM then favors scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday. While still focusing mostly on the Central and Southern Plains, CSU machine learning does bring low severe weather potential back to the far southwest towards the end of next workweek.

Overall, forecast highs remain below average through this weekend and early next week. After which, a gradual warming trend to near average temperatures is favored towards the end of the workweek. With surface high pressure centering over the eastern two thirds of the state tonight, lows in the low to mid 40s are progged. However, with a conditionally good radiational cooling setup, wouldn't be surprised if patchy frost doesn't develop in the traditionally cooler spots. Though that is highly dependent upon any residual cloud cover overnight. Beyond tonight, lows in the 40s to low 50s are expected at most locations, most nights through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals throughout the 00Z TAF period. Gusty northwest winds this evening will quickly diminish over the next few hours, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds are forecast to gradually strengthen through the late morning and afternoon, organizing out of the southwest as a center of low pressure begins to move into southeastern Montana.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.