textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix of rain, snow, and possibly some freezing rain mainly north tonight through Monday morning. Rain with snow mixed in on the backside then spreads southeast across the forecast area Monday afternoon through Monday night.

- Temperatures this afternoon will range from seasonably mild north to unseasonably warm south. It will be noticeably colder far north on Monday but the central and south will remain mild. Temperatures cool statewide on Tuesday.

- There is increasing confidence in a system bringing widespread precipitation to the the region late Thursday through Saturday. Uncertainty remains high though in the eventual track of the system and as well as if snow or rain will be favored.

UPDATE

Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Latest high-res models continue to show precipitation pushing into northwest North Dakota later this evening, in line with ongoing forecast. Forecast precipitation types continues to be tricky as it will be right on the cusp of changeover between rain and snow. Therefore, will leave going forecast in tact.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

After a relatively quiet day today, a more active weather pattern is on tap for the remainder of the week. For tonight through Monday morning, upper low pressure will begin to organize over Alberta. Ahead of this low pressure system, southwesterly flow aloft will develop resulting in strong WAA over parts of the state. The best low to mid-level moisture is progged over northern North Dakota, and as such, the highest PoPs are mainly along and north of Highway 2, with lower chances mainly north of I94 and south of Highway 2. The latest NBM runs have seen a noticeable shift northward, which appears to be supported by the latest hi-res guidance. As such, the latest snow forecast has continued to decrease with totals generally an inch or less along and north of Highway 2, with the highest amounts in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains. That said, locally higher amounts are possible should any banding occur. Another potential impact is the possibility of freezing rain resulting in a light glaze of ice. This is most likely along a narrow corridor between snow further north, and rain on the southern periphery. Therefore, reissued an SPS for the northern two tiers of counties to highlight any light snow and freezing rain threat.

One interesting note in the latest NBM runs has less to do with tonight through Monday morning and more so Monday evening through monday night where a notable uptick in QPF has been observed. This coincides with the main upper low/shortwave passing along the Canadian/ND border while a 300 mb jetstreak passes through the state. The chance of a wetting rain during any period is now 30 to 60 percent Monday evening/night mainly for much of central ND. Since highs Monday are progged to range from the 30s near the Canadian border to the 50s to low 60s central and south, most of this precipitation should fall as rain. Though a little light snow may mix in on the backside.

For Tuesday, expect cooler, mostly dry, and breezy conditions, though winds may be a little stronger in the south central during the morning and early afternoon hours. Highs ranging from the upper 20s north to low 40s south are moderately below average for this time of year. Breezy to windy and mostly dry conditions are then expected again on Wednesday with highs mainly in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The exception is that there are currently low PoPs near the ND/SD border especially during the afternoon and evening.

A resumption of the aforementioned active pattern is then likely to some degree for Thursday through Saturday. Details in regard to this later week system remain murky, though it does appear surface low pressure is likely to develop somewhere in Wyoming/Colorado before lifting to the east or northeast. The exact track this low takes, how organized it becomes, and how quickly it eventually lifts out of the region will help determine just how much precipitation the area gets. A more southern track such as with the 12Z EC would result in less precipitation with mostly snow favored, while a more northern track such as the 12Z GFS would result in more precipitation with higher uncertainty in precipitation types.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Ahead of an incoming low pressure system, a rain and snow mix is likely to push into far northwestern North Dakota late this evening, before expanding across much of the north overnight tonight and through Monday morning. A corridor of freezing rain producing a light glaze of ice is possible later tonight through Monday morning as well, mainly along and north of Highway 2. In addition to precipitation chances, MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected mainly north of Highway 200 through Monday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.