textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost is forecast again for tonight into Friday morning across portions of western and central North Dakota.

- Slightly below normal temperatures through the end of the week, warming later this weekend into early next week. - An overall dry weather pattern expected through the rest of the week, with low chances for precipitation Friday and perhaps Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Currently, west/northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging over the western CONUS and a long wave trough over central/eastern Canada. Strong surface high pressure continues developing east across the Dakotas, with a steady northwest breeze and a mostly clear sky over the region along to ahead of this feature.

Sfc high will continue east tonight, with winds becoming light and variable with time (along with some southerly return flow west). Some increase in mid/upper level clouds ahead of an embedded mid level impulse moving into the Northern Rockies. Lows tonight again dropping into the 30s, with frost developing especially in the more prone areas.

The above mentioned mid level wave continues east for Friday, moving across northern areas of the region and contributing to low chances for showers Fri afternoon north and east. Expect moisture reaching the surface to be minimal. Return flow also increases in the wake of the sfc high, with a breezy south/southeasterly wind during the day tomorrow.

We remain in a steady west/northwesterly flow aloft this weekend, maintaining mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures. Western CONUS ridge nudges east into the Great Plains as it deamplifies early next week, but will provide for temperatures trending to above normal Monday/Tuesday, when highs warm well into the 70s to around 80. The only concern regarding fire weather will be over the southwest, where RH values are projected lowest next week (20-25 percent), and if this is coupled with any elevated afternoon winds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Mostly clear today with some mid level clouds in the southwest. Mid to high level clouds will then increase across much of the area tonight. A breezy northwest wind this afternoon mainly for KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS. Light and variable winds expected tonight, becoming south/southeasterly for Friday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.