textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend warmer/above normal for this weekend, along with breezy daytime winds.

- Widespread 40 to 60 percent rain chances later this weekend through early next week. A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday.

- Active weather pattern continues next week, along with near normal temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

No major changes are needed for this update. Current conditions and trends have been blended into the forecast. A quiet but breezy night lies ahead, with increasing clouds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Currently, west-northwest flow aloft with a tilted upper level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back northwest to across the Rockies. Surface high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and will continue to build east tonight. Southerly return flow in the sfc high's wake, warming temperatures well into the 50s across the western half of the state along with ample sunshine this afternoon.

Broad upper level ridge builds into the Northern Plains tomorrow, and will continue to bring a nice warming trend to the Dakotas this weekend, with widespread highs in the mid 50s to mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. Upper ridge moves off to our east and is replaced with southwest flow aloft Sat night into Sunday. Multiple embedded waves in this flow will bring increased chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region Sat night through Sunday as they interact with a sfc low moving east across the local region.

Models still show a quasi-split flow for early next week, with a northern stream wave pushing east across the Dakotas Monday and Tuesday maintaining decent chances for moisture. Cooler temperatures for Monday with CAA behind Sunday's surface low. Models not as cold, and looks to be only 10-15 degrees cooler than Sunday for afternoon highs.

We then remain in an active flow pattern through much of next week, favoring precipitation chances pretty much each period along with temperatures averaging near normal. By the end of the week, ensembles continue to favor broad troughing which would suggest cooler temperatures and probabilities for snow increasing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through tonight, and in western North Dakota through the forecast period. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over south central and eastern North Dakota on Saturday. KBIS may be near the edge of the low ceilings. Some light rain could fall near KJMS and surrounding areas late Saturday morning through the afternoon, with no visibility restrictions expected at this time. Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kts through the forecast period, increasing closer to 20 kts and becoming gusty across central and eastern North Dakota by Saturday afternoon. A period of low level wind shear is forecast at most terminals late tonight into Saturday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.