textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms spreading across much of western and central North Dakota today through tonight. There is a low risk of strong to severe storms along and south of the I-94 corridor with this activity.

- A cooling trend is expected through midweek, before a warming trend occurs late this week and into next weekend.

- Very hot this weekend and early next week with temperatures above 100 degrees possible, and heat index values of 100 to 105.

UPDATE

Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Made some minor adjustments to pops this morning, otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms were pushing into southwest to west central ND as of 2 AM MDT. Bulk shear of 35 to 50 knots is situated over much of western and central ND, but instability is generally weak with MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg not far south of the State line, but tapering to only around 100 J/Kg north of the state line, in far southwest ND. With some elevated cape and strong shear, stronger cells could produce some small to marginally severe hail early this morning in the far southwest. A couple of CAMS do show MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg in the 08-10 UTC timeframe, which would be enough cape to get some stronger cells. We did issue a SPS for on cell in Bowman county already. Once this activity settles down, think the potential for severe storms today is pretty low, will continue to monitor though. Think the better threat for a few stronger to possibly severe storms will be tonight. Through the day today instability generally remains south of the SD border. A few of the CAMS do show waves of instability lifting north around midday today, but CIN may be enough given cloudy skies and ongoing showers/ thunderstorms to inhibit stronger instability aloft. Tonight instability aloft does lift a little north of the border again. The highest threat in ND looks to be south of I-94, and especially right along the SD border. Bulk shear should remain around 30-50 kts through this evening, but with shear vectors more parallel to the east to west orientated boundary near the border, it looks like storm mode may be more messy, limiting the large hail potential. Will go with ping pong ball sized hail and 60 mph winds for the main hazards

We quiet down on Wednesday but another wave moving through the quasi-zonal upper flow tracks through the area on Thursday bringing another chance for thunderstorms. At this time, shear looks to be around 25-30 kts, but with daytime heating we will probably become moderately unstable in the late afternoon into the early evening, resulting in the potential for thunderstorms. Shear does look to be more perpendicular to the north to south frontal boundary so there may be the potential for a supercell thunderstorm Thursday. There's quite a bit of uncertainty at this time so will hold off on any specifics for hazards. SPC has introduced a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms over a good portion of central ND on Thursday.

After today and Wednesday, building high pressure over a good portions of the lower 48 will produce much warmer temperatures over our neck of the woods late in the work week and especially for the weekend. The NBM ensemble spreads do begin to increase over the weekend but the NBM 25th percentile temperatures for Bismarck are in the mid to upper 90s late this weekend into early next week. Thus there may be quite a bit of uncertainty in the extent of top end temperatures, but with the 25th percentile already in the mid and upper 90s, confidence remains high for hot temperatures late this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to track east across western and central North Dakota. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and this evening, along and south of the I-94 corridor. Any thunderstorms could contain MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities, along with damaging winds gusts and hail. Thunderstorms exit the area late tonight, with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible thereafter, with the southern TAF sites favored for low ceilings and visibilities at this time. Generally an easterly flow 5 to 15 mph through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.