textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong westerly winds will continue into this evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions into this evening for parts of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley.

- Notable cool-down in temperatures today into Friday, with cooler temperatures lingering into early next week.

- Period of snow showers, some possibly moderate to heavy at times, spreading west to east Friday afternoon and evening.

- Another round or rain and possibly some wet snow is possible Sunday into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 542 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Quick update to add Rolette County to the Wind Advisory.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

We are anticipating no changes to the current ongoing Hazards. Wind Advisory looks to be working out well. We did see the RAWS site west of Crosby gust to 50 knots, otherwise winds have been behaving with gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Humidities in the southern James River Valley are around 35 percent, but should continue to drop a little more this afternoon before steadying out around 30 percent. Winds will also be on the increase with sustained winds around 30 mph expected mid to late afternoon. Winds around 30 mph with humidities at 30 percent would hit Red Flag Warning criteria.

We continue to see an area of rain and snow showers moving into central ND. This area produced period of snow earlier in western ND with no significant accumulation, but will continue to dry out as it pushes through central ND. Once we see winds begin to diminish this evening, and precip taper as it moves through central ND, remainder of the evening and overnight should be pretty quiet.

The next concern weather wise is precipitation chances of Friday. The surface system responsible for the winds and precipitation today is lifting northeast through southern Manitoba, while the upper level low is hanging out over southern Saskatchewan. We see a break in the precipitation later tonight into Friday morning. Then as the Upper low drops south to near the International Border by 12Z and does another loop over southern Saskatchewan during the day Friday, we will see the potential for rain and snow showers spreading west to east across the state Friday. The best chances for snow will remain over the northwest portion of the state, closer to the mid and upper level low. There are some model differences but some light accumulating snow, perhaps up to an inch or two in grassy areas is possible Friday afternoon through Friday night. Elsewhere, we are expecting a little more sun and continued breezy to windy conditions. Most Cams are indicating some widely scattered snow showers developing Friday afternoon, perhaps as early as Friday morning southwest and continuing into Friday evening. The RAP and HRRR have been pretty consistent in bringing an area of higher reflectivities from southwest ND around midday and progressing east into central ND and becoming more widespread as they move into eastern ND Friday evening. The RAP is showing a signal for some CAPE up to around 300 J/KG along with some 0-2KM RH and 950-900MB forcing. The strongest forcing and moisture don't line up great and the moisture is limited. In addition, temperatures may be warm enough for all rain southwest and south central Friday afternoon. Not going to message snow squalls attim, but moderate to at times heavy rain/snow showers look possible Friday and will pass along monitoring the snow squall potential.

Regarding the winds, it is not expected to be as windy as today. However, the northwest and adjacent portions of west central and north central ND may flirt with advisory criteria winds Friday. Confidence is low enough to not issue an advisory at this time.

The Saskatchewan low lingers over southern Saskatchewan through Saturday and into Sunday, keeping the area in an active pattern. The next decent chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday. A Cluster Analysis shows two camps, a quicker and weaker solution versus a slower and stronger solution. Currently there is a slight 60 to 40 percent favoring of the slower and stronger solution which would bring more widespread precipitation to most of the forecast area, while the quicker and weaker solution clips more of the southeast half of the forecast area. Both would be cold enough to support a little light snow on the back side of the system late Sunday into Monday. Our latest NBM Guidance is showing the 24 hour probability of qpf greater than a quarter inch, ranging from around 70-80 percent over the southern James River Valley to less than 20 percent over northwest North Dakota. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1034 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Widespread MVFR with localized IFR ceilings are expected over western and parts of central North Dakota this afternoon, along with some periods of light rain or snow showers. Ceilings will improve from south to north late this afternoon and this evening with ceilings improving to VFR even at northern TAF sites. Ceilings then lowering in the north Friday morning as wrap around moisture drops south from Canada. Westerly winds with gusts to around 45 knots possible this afternoon and early evening before winds diminish mid to late evening. Westerly winds increase again mid to late morning on Friday. Our latest NBM Guidance is showing the 24 hour probability of qpf greater than a quarter inch, ranging from around 70-80 percent over the southern James River Valley to less than 20 percent over northwest North Dakota. Stay tuned!

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037- 040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ037-047- 048-050-051.