textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures in the 90s will continue through the week.

- Low shower/thunderstorm chances later this evening and overnight, otherwise mainly dry conditions through Friday.

- Critical fire weather conditions again Wednesday, and possibly through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Currently a large upper low pressure system sits in northern California, creating a large ridge pattern across the central and northern portions of the CONUS. At the surface a weak low pressure sits in eastern Montana, with a stationary front across North Dakota.

With temperatures well above normal in the 90s today, along with directional shear between the surface and upper atmosphere, storms are possible. Most models have around 1500 J/kg of CAPE with around 15 to 25 knots of shear. This CAPE exists in an east/west corridor laid across the middle of the state. The CAPE does decrease as the sun angle gets lower, however most CAMs dont have storms firing until close to sunset when the low level jet kicks in. The majority of the storms look to be east of Jamestown initially, before also developing in the northern James River Valley tonight. Severe storms are possible in the James River Valley, probably only one inch hail for hazards. SPC has our east in a level 1 of 5 risk.

The rest of this week will be much of the same. Very warm high temperatures in the 90s, with breezy southerly winds as the ridge continues to hold across the region. This will in turn create the all too well familiar critical fire weather conditions in the far west. Another Red Flag Warning was issued for the same far western counties for Wednesday. This coming weekend looks to see a pattern shift as the low pressure in northern California finally moves east. This could create daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, along with slightly cooler temperatures but still above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Winds will be breezy with a southeast wind gusting to 30 knots generally. Late this afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible across the north, central, and east. With lower confidence on location, left them out of most terminals for now. Timing looks to be near or after sunset.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.