textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures through Wednesday, followed by a warming trend to finish out the week.

- Low chance of light rain or snow showers from the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley during the day Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

No significant forecast changes are needed for this update. The blending in of current conditions and trends are mainly reflected in adjusted sky cover and decreased overnight temperatures in some areas.

UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Clouds continue to gradually decrease this evening from north to south in the wake of an embedded S/WV moving south through the Dakotas. Overall, changes to the forecast were minor and all weather elements were on track.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Updates for this evening were minor and mainly based on blending latest observations and trends. Winds will diminish through sunset, and clouds are expected to also decrease this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Persistant cyclonic flow is expected over the northern Plains through the remain of the week, with mainly dry and warming weather expected through this period. The odd shortwave impulse ejecting off off of a retrograde Hudson Bay Low may induce isolated to scattered showers at times, though overall precpitation is expected to be limited and non-impactful.

A mostly cloudy sky is expected this afternoon, with low chances (less than 15 percent) for precpitation advertised by short term CAMs across portions of the north central into the northern James River Valley through this afternoon. Decent saturation above 4-5kft along with sufficient lift from a upper level impulse could promote a few showers across portions of central North Dakota. With much of the saturated layer falling with the DGZ, and with seasonable cool highs mainly in the 40s, these showers could fall as either rain, snow, or a mix of both. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings during this period indicates that near surface conditions are expected to remain fairly dry, which may help limit the amount of precpitation reaching the ground. Will maintain the low chances for precpitation through the afternoon. Chances for precpitation and cloud cover are expected to decrease through the evening and overnight as the inciting shortwave impulse exits the region. Otherwise for today, breezy north to northwest winds are expected across the forecast area, with sustained speeds around 20 MPH and gusts as high as 30 MPH broadly expected. Lows tonight will remain below freezing, from the lower 20s southwest to the mid 20s northwest and central.

Late tonight into Wednesday, another weak shortwave is progged to move across eastern North Dakota, promoting mostly cloudy skies and low chances (less than 20%) for light rain and snow showers through the early afternoon. Highs on Thursday are expected to remain seasonable cool, from the upper 40s east, where cloud cover will be greatest, to the mid 50s west, where skies clear out relatively early in the day.

Warming temperatures are then expected through the remainder of the as an upper level ridge slowly makes its way into the northern Plains, bringing highs back toward or slightly above normal for this time of year by Friday. Mainly dry conditions are expected through this period, though the cyclonic flow pattern would allow for a transient shortwave or two to promote low chances for showers somewhere in the forecast area each day, similar to today and Wednesday. A slightly more robust wave is progged to slide across the region late Friday through Saturday, slightly stalling the warmup through the weekend. With a low pressure center associated with this wave expected to lift through the area some time Friday afternoon and evening. With increasing CAA and a moderate mid level jet swinging around the retrograding low during this period, gusty northwest winds can be anticipated Friday afternoon. We could also see some low chances for light rain associated with this wave, mainly across the far southwest.

Looking further ahead, a breakdown of the cyclonic flow over the northern Plains is anticipated as long-term models advertise the eventual displacement of the retrograding low further to the northeast. With high pressure building into the desert southwest, predominately northwesterly flow can be anticipated across the forecast area moving into next week, allowing for more near daily chances for light precpitation across portions of the CWA, and the resumption of the warming trend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated light rain showers could approach KJMS Wednesday afternoon, with no impacts to aviation expected. Light and variable winds overnight will become northwesterly around 10 kts during the day Wednesday, then return to light and variable Wednesday evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.