textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of eastern and central North Dakota.

- Slightly warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening.

- Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An upper level trough continues to dig across Western CONUS locking in a cooler airmass across the Plains. Surface high pressure continues to move overhead. This will help clear skies this afternoon and lead to cool overnight temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s across the area. Clear skies and radiational cooling are forecast to lead to low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s. There is a good shot of freeze and frost occurring tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern and parts of central North Dakota while a Frost Advisory has been issued across parts for southwestern and central North Dakota.

Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s and 70s. Wind will shift from northwesterly tonight to southeasterly tomorrow as surface high pressure shifts off to the southeast in Minnesota and surface low pressure moves into eastern Montana. This will lead to breezy conditions across the central and eastern half of the state by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the northwest by the afternoon hours as an upper level wave approaches the region. An upper level low is forecast to stall out over southern Saskatchewan Thursday and Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms until the end of the week. There is around 70 percent chance that that portions of western and central North Dakota could see up to 0.25 of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This cooler pattern will keep temperatures in the 60s to 70s daily until warming up by the weekend. The NBM 25th percentile begins to push the upper 70s to lower 80s and the NBM 75th percentile has lower 90s. There is fairly high confidence for warm weather to start off next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Conditions will continue to clear out this afternoon across the state. VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Winds will switch from northwesterly to southeasterly by tomorrow with gusty conditions by the afternoon hours.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044- 055>062. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ005-013- 023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.