textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong west winds will be found today. Northern and some central portions could see wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible today, across portions of western North Dakota.

- Dry today then periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast from Tuesday evening into next weekend. Best chances for showers and storms will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Stacked low pressure system will move across southern Canada today bringing strong winds and mainly dry conditions to the state. Strong westerly winds are still expected to develop later this morning and through this afternoon. The latest forecast keeps the strongest winds and wind gusts generally along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. However, sustained winds in excess of 30 mph are now forecast to be a tier of counties south of these strongest winds. Thus expanded the Wind Advisory slightly south to account for this. Counties along the Canadian border could see sustained winds approach High Wind Criteria today in excess of 40 mph and wind gusts near 60 MPH if the strong 850 mb wind can mix down. HREF max wind ensembles keep the strongest wind gusts in Canada currently, although forecast soundings showing steep low level lapse rates this afternoon could attempt to mix these stronger winds. For now kept with a Wind Advisory given the low confidence in these stronger winds. There still remains a threat for near critical to perhaps a brief period of critical fire weather conditions today. Areas of biggest concern remain counties just to the north of the Missouri River along with areas south and west of the Missouri River. Red Flag hours are 1 to 3 hours for most of these areas this afternoon. The uncertainty comes with fuel status, given most of these areas received a wetting rain this weekend. Most areas will have somewhat steep low level lapse rates today, although the stronger portion of the 850 mph jet is in the north today where cooler temperatures will keep higher RH this afternoon. Given these uncertainties will hold off on Fire Weather highlights for now. Increased red flag hours or further nudge southward of the 850 mb jet could nudge towards issuance of a fire weather product and will have to be monitored closely today. Otherwise, look for cooler temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s today along with mainly clear and dry conditions. Winds will diminish tonight, while dry conditions remain. Lows tonight will be cool for some areas and in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Flat ridging aloft will push the mentioned low out of the area on Tuesday. Temperatures look to remain cooler with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Later in the day through Tuesday night a weak upper level wave with monsoonal moisture looks to move across the northern plains. How far north this wave gets will determine if any precipitation reaches North Dakota. Today keeps rain chances more in SD, although some indications areas along and south of Interstate 94 could have at least a slight chance of rain later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night will be seasonable and near 50 degrees. Increased RH Tuesday night could lead to some patchy fog, depending on cloud cover and winds.

Clusters fairly consistent on a strong ridge developing across the central US while an upper level low remains across the Pacific NW mid to late week. The result for ND will be a mix of upper level ridging and southwest flow. Days with stronger southwest flow could see chances for showers and thunderstorms return as monsoonal moisture and upper level waves moves through. Right now the highest chances for this look to come Wednesday night through Thursday and perhaps again this weekend. There is some limited instability and shear with this mid week wave, perhaps returning some isolated strong to severe storms. Temperatures could go on a warming trend at least mid to late work week. Forecast highs in the 90s may also return by late week. This warming trend could bring lower RH values in the afternoon, possibly bringing some increased fire weather concerns. Temperatures this weekend may stay above normal, although NBM spreads are larger. Some clusters see a slight breakdown to the ridge bringing cooler temperatures, while most keep it in place. Of note for this weekend is the potential for monsoonal like moisture to stream into the area with the cluster solution that breaks the ridge down. This could lead to cooler temperatures and perhaps some increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. This more active and cooler solution is currently considered an outlier, and the outgoing forecast for now maintains only slight chances for precipitation with near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period. There could be some lingering MVFR ceilings in the far east tonight, possibly impacting the KJMS area. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for Monday. Strong westerly winds will develop Monday then diminish Monday evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013- 017>019-022-055>058.