textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Frigid temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills continue today into Monday morning.

- Warmer but still below average temperatures for the coming work week. Windy conditions on Monday.

- Only occasional low chances for light snow this coming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The forecast remains in good shape. Isolated flurries/ice crystals will continue to diminish over southwest North Dakota early this morning, giving way to a mostly sunny but frigid day. Early morning temperatures are mostly in the teens and 20s below zero, but an NDAWN station at the International Peace Garden has reached -39!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 426 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Broad upper level troughing is analyzed from northern Ontario through North Dakota early this morning. At the surface, Arctic high pressure is drifting from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into North Dakota. Light snow/flurries ahead of the Arctic air mass continue across southern parts of the state, but have become less commonly observed over the past few hours. Meanwhile, clearing skies within the Arctic air mass have allowed temperatures to fall into the 20s below, with isolated 30s below readings. Another period of dangerous to life- threatening wind chills, as low as 50 below across the north, continues this morning. But this should be the last period of cold this extreme for awhile. With the Arctic air mass firmly in place over the region this afternoon, High temperatures are expected to remain below zero, and could even be as cold as 15 below in the Turtle Mountains area. A 10 mph wind this afternoon will prevent wind chills from climbing above 15 below southwest to around 30 below northeast. A stronger Pacific warm front will approach the region tonight. Minimum overnight temperatures around 10 to 20 below zero are likely to occur this evening, with slowly rising temperatures through the late night. Southwest winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph along with the rising temperatures though, rendering another night of wind chills in the 20s and 30s below zero. Through noon CST today, an Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for counties north and east of the Missouri River and along and north of I-94, with a Cold Weather Advisory for all other counties. Then from noon today to 9 AM CST Monday morning, a Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect for all counties north and east of the river.

Model guidance keeps trending south with a clipper system cutting through the Red River Valley on Monday. It now appears that only southwest North Dakota could see an appreciable amount of time under this system's warm sector, and only during the morning. It will still be a much warmer day for all, with forecast highs ranging from around 10 above zero northeast to 25 southwest. But it will also be windier behind the cold front attendant to the clipper. Soundings show mean mixing potential around 30 kts with modest cold air advection and pressure rises. Will likely see sustained northwest winds around 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph Monday afternoon. Additionally, a few CAMs clip the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake Basin with a band of snow along the cold front. Will hold off on adding this potential to the forecast for now, as the probability for measurable snow is no greater than 10 percent.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, ensembles are consolidating on the placement of a baroclinic zone and surface ridge axis between an eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge. The baroclinic zone is favored to set up near the Montana/North Dakota border on Tuesday, bringing forecast high temperatures back down closer to zero northeast to around 20 southwest. Wednesday could see a slight eastward shift in the baroclinic zone, allowing for just a few degrees added to the high temperature forecast. NBM temperature spread is low on Tuesday but increases in southwest North Dakota on Wednesday in closer proximity to the baroclinic zone. A subset of ensemble members produce light snow associated with low to mid level frontogenesis across central North Dakota late Tuesday into Wednesday, but this does look to be over the surface ridge axis. Every ensemble cluster has low to medium chances for measurable snow with this feature, but placement uncertainty limits NBM probabilities to no greater than 10 percent at this time.

A shortwave trough originating from Hudson Bay is favored to drop down from Canada Thursday into Friday, pushing up against the western CONUS ridge that is trying to expand/shift eastward. NBM precipitation chances have now increased to near 20 percent Thursday morning through Friday morning. The baroclinic zone could get shoved back westward by the shortwave, and while NBM temperature spread does increase, the distributions have shifted cooler from previous forecasts for both Thursday and Friday. It is now not until next Saturday that we see a distinct increase in the NBM temperature trend-lines. Ensemble temperature spread actually becomes maximized on Saturday before shrinking heading into the first week of February, with the medians of the NBM distributions settling closer to near or perhaps even above normal. Also worth noting in the extended period is that the NBM has introduced a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation next Saturday when ensembles hint at a transition to an active northwest flow pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Pockets of MVFR ceilings persist across southern North Dakota early this morning, but these should gradually depart to the south. There have also been some flurries/ice crystals associated with the lower clouds, with MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions at times. Don't anticipate reduced visibility being a concern beyond 14Z. VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the forecast period. Winds will become west to northwest around 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon, then turn to the southwest and increase to around 10 to 15 kts tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for NDZ001>005- 009>013-021>023-025-035>037. Cold Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Monday for NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for NDZ046>048-050- 051.