textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty westerly winds today, with gusts to 55 mph mainly north of Interstate 94.

- Near critical fire weather conditions over southwest and parts of south central North Dakota today. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible over many locations Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures today and Wednesday, a notable but brief warm up for Thursday, with much cooler temperatures expected by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 417 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current surface analysis places low over far southeast Saskatchewan, with trough dropping into North Dakota. Upper level analysis places low stacked over southeast Saskatchewan, with southwesterly flow over our area. A few very weak showers are noted over parts of central and northeast North Dakota with this system, while southwesterly to westerly winds continue to be on the increase behind the trough.

For today, westerly winds will continue to be on the increase this morning as aforementioned low moves to the east, passing over Lake Winnipeg around mid-day, and over the Manitoba/Ontario border by evening. Tightest pressure gradient and best mixing down of stronger winds will be generally to the north of Interstate 94 where gusts to 55 are expected, though even along and to the south it will be windy with gusts to 45 mph. Along with the general concerns that come with wind, minimum afternoon humidity values will mainly be in the 30s over southwest and south central North Dakota, with possibly some upper 20s over portions of Bowman and Adams Counties. Therefore, near critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of southwest and south central North Dakota. To the north, higher relative humidity values are expected.

Winds will then diminish this evening. In the meantime a notable short wave will will swing through in the flow behind the low pushing into our area this evening. This will likely bring showers to primarily northern portions our our area in the evening and overnight moving easterly, and possibly a few modest thunderstorms early on.

Quieter and cooler weather is expected on Wednesday, but modest ridging over the area Thursday will bring notably warmer temperatures, with highs in the 80s over most locations, with a few spots possibly touching 90. In addition, notably drier air moves in resulting in quite low humidity values, especially over the southwest. Therefore, near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be possible given an expected westerly to southwesterly breeze.

A cold front moves through overnight into early Friday bringing a breezy to windy day on Friday with increasing northwesterly winds. This also will usher in notably cooler air, with highs expected to possibly be 10 to 15 degrees below average through the weekend into the start of the following work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over southern North Dakota overnight tonight. On Tuesday morning, some low stratus may make its way into northwest North Dakota affecting the KXWA terminal, but this is expected to only be for a few hours, with improvement by mid day. West to northwest winds will also be on the increase, especially over northwest and north central North Dakota where gusts to around 45 kts are expected. Further south will still be windy, with gusts to 35 kts. The winds will gradually diminish this evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-055>059.