textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog may again develop over portions of western North Dakota tonight into Friday morning. - Dry conditions will continue through early next week, with a more active weather pattern favored towards the middle of next week.

- Seasonably cool high temperatures east to seasonably warm high temperatures west to close out the week, then a gradual warming trend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A band of MVFR to IFR clouds remains situated over western ND. The eastern edge of this band runs along the Highway 83 corridor with clear skies to the east and clouds skies to the west. Only changes with this update were for clouds based on latest satellite imagery. There are some 3-5SM Vsbys in the far southwest at this time. Patchy fog is already in the forecast, will monitor for possible SPS/Advisory. Guidance suggests this may be the favored spot for fog development this evening, with all of the the west seeing the potential late tonight into Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Currently, high amplitude upper level ridge extends from the Southern Rockies north into south central Canada, with a deep upper low/long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. This results in continued northerly flow aloft over the Northern Plains, with sfc high pressure over the eastern Dakotas and lee side troughing to our west. South/southeasterly flow, with breezy conditions at times west this afternoon. Stratus continues to erode, with a south to north orientated stratus deck from south central South Dakota north-northwest through central and western North Dakota, basically along Highway 83 to Highway 85. Some erosion on the western and eastern fringes of this layer, but with the sun soon setting unsure how much more will dissipate. Same goes for the lingering stratus east, as it eroded nicely for awhile, but now appears to linger more. RRFS and RAP both agree with low clouds again tonight where the current stratus is at, with possible redevelopment elsewhere. Also, both RRFS and RAP show fog developing once again on the western edge of the stratus over far western ND, and have this in the forecast and a mention in the HWO.

Blocking pattern continues into the weekend, with sharp ridging remaining quasi-stationary/nudging east into the Great Plains, and long wave troughing east and developing troughing west. Resultant weather will be dry, with temperatures slowly warming Friday into the weekend as the ridge approaches our region. This warming trend continues into early next week, when we will once again see well above normal high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. South/southeasterly winds will also increase Friday into Saturday with a tightening pressure gradient, breezy west tomorrow , then breezy area wide for Saturday. Pressure gradient relaxes and winds won't be as breezy for Sunday as the aforementioned ridge continue to slowly push east/collapses over the Dakotas.

Upper ridging will continue to develop east into the eastern CONUS early next week, setting the stage for a more active and cooler weather pattern developing across the Rockies into the Northern Plains towards the middle of next week. Ensembles and NBM all support this.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A band of MVFR to IFR cloudiness remains situated over western ND at the beginning of the 00Z TAF period. Unfortunately the TAF sites of KXWA, KMOT and KBIS are right along the edge of this cloud band so these will be the most uncertain TAFs, at least to begin with, this evening. KDIK looks to remain blanketed in clouds tonight and through at least Saturday morning, possibly through the TAF period. KJMS currently looks to remain mostly clear, but will need to monitor for patchy shallow fog towards morning. Better fog chances do look to be over western ND. KMOT and KBIS will remain along the eastern edge of the cloud shield this evening. Guidance suggests that deeper moisture may swing west a bit, with the potential for some clear skies overnight. Better moisture then shifts back east, to bring probably MVFR ceilings into these TAF sites Friday morning for a while, before finally clearing. KXWA is on the western edge of the cloud shield and high cirrus is obscuring the view, but will probably start out with a scattered MVFR layer. Far western ND looks to be the most likely area for fog tonight, this would include KXWA and KDIK. Uncertainty is high but will add a mention of fog for each of these TAF sites.

A southeast surface flow is expected through the 00Z TAF period. Breezy southeast winds over western ND will subside this evening, but remain in the 10 to 20 kts range overnight. Southeast winds generally 5-15 kts over central ND. All of western and central ND could see southeast winds of 20 to 30 kts Friday afternoon, with some gusts to 35 kts possible.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.