textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for snow far southwest tonight.

- Gusty southerly winds Tuesday with rain and snow developing Tuesday night.

- Gusty winds become northwesterly on Wednesday, with chances low to medium chances for rain and snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Only a few minor updates tonight. In the southwest we modified the area of slight chance pops. Limiting it a little compared to the previous forecast, based on a blend of short term model guidance. Limited the slight chance pops to Bowman and portions of slope and Adams counties. We updated sky cover base on latest satellite imagery and incoming short term guidance. At least for a period late this evening there is a pretty good area of clear skies over western and central ND. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

No significant changes to the early evening update. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with breezy northwest winds. Winds will diminish early to mid evening. Temperatures fall into the 20s to lower 30s by late this evening. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Current surface analysis places trough/front settling through the upper midwest and high pushing through the Canadian prairie provinces into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough over the Great Lakes region and ridge over the western CONUS. Over our area, fast northwesterly flow remains in place. Gusty northwesterly winds continue in the wake of a cold front that passed through earlier today.

For tonight, winds will diminish, but a weak disturbance moves through overnight, mainly over the southwest. CAMs have been hit and miss with bringing some light precipitation into our area, so have painted in some low snow chances over the far southwest.

Quiet weather is expected Monday as surface high slides through the area. Tuesday into Wednesday is when our next system is forecast to move through. Windy conditions are expected Tuesday as a warm front lifts through the area, but some question as to how far east the warmer air can make it. Either way a notable warm-up is expected, especially west. Latest guidance suggests the strongest winds will be over central North Dakota, with advisory level winds possible. Precipitation spreads into the area in earnest Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper low approaches the region with cold front dropping through Wednesday with winds shifting northwest. This again will result in windy conditions, with winds probably even stronger than Tuesday.

Thereafter we end up with split-flow to the west while our area starts out with northwest flow behind the departing system, becoming more westerly this weekend. Occasional low to medium chances for precipitation enter the forecast with the westerly flow, along with moderating temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

There is a narrow strip of low VFR/MVFR stratus in northeastern ND gradually drifting southwest. This may briefly impact KJMS within the next couple hours before eroding. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. One other note is that breezy southeasterly winds will develop in western ND Monday evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.