textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening, severe weather is not expected.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The main hazards are ping pong ball sized hail and 60 mph winds.

- Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue next week.

- High temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday. A modest cooling trend then develops through mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows Mostly sunny skies across western and central ND early this Independence Day afternoon. There is and area of agitated Cumulus development in southern Emmons county, near the McIntosh county line. This is in an area of very unstable air, with MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg, as is much of central ND along and east of the Highway 83 corridor and Cin is minimal. Shear across the area is minimal, but effective shear near the aforementioned Cu is around 20-25 knots. Hail Cape over central ND is high enough (700-800 J/kg) that an updraft that can sustain itself could produce some marginally severe hail. Mid-level lapse rates are not great, but better in the far south central than the rest of central ND. Lapse rate are not really forecast to steepen much, if at all this afternoon, but again, there may be a small window of opportunity early to mid afternoon for a strong or marginally severe storm in the far south central into the southern JRV. By this evening, thing should quiet down, with little or no chances for thunderstorms.

Sunday will bring our next chance for strong to severe storms as an upper level shortwave trough tracking east through southern Canada, skirts the area. Steepening lapse rates and marginal moisture will produce an area of instability over eastern Montana Sunday afternoon. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing shear will provide sufficient shear that thunderstorms may become supercells with the potential for large hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts to 60 mph. Shear vectors are not ideal for supercell development but there's enough of a cross component to the surface trough that they can't be ruled out. SPC continues a marginal risk for severe storms over a good portion of western and north central ND Sunday. At this time it looks like it will be a late afternoon into the evening timeframe. It will also be a hot day Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Current Apparent temperatures remain in the mid 90s. Will monitor but no heat related hazards are planned at this time.

We cool down and dry out on Monday with upper level ridging and surface high pressure traversing the forecast area. A quasi- zonal upper flow continue through much of the work week, bringing near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. After the hot day tomorrow, we cool down into the 70s most areas by Wednesday, then see a gradual warmup through the rest of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Only a very small chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, and too uncertain to include in any TAF attim, but should one develop over a TAF site, MVFR Vsbys and locally gusty winds would be possible. Light and variable winds today, becoming light south to southeast tonight into Sunday morning. Will continue to monitor for fog potential late tonight into Sunday, but with southerly flow picking up, chances look to be low attim.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.