textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and windy this weekend, with near-critical fire weather conditions south and west of the Missouri River.

- Near to above normal temperatures with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Little updates needed at this time. Mainly updated the TAF discussion for the 06z issuance. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 956 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Current conditions and trends were blended into the forecast for this update. Still skeptical about snow/freezing rain showers in north central North Dakota tonight, and more recent guidance has backed off. So did not add a mention of this to the forecast, but its probability of occurrence is still greater than zero. A large stratus shield across the eastern half of the state has been slow to retreat eastward, and high-resolution guidance now shows that fog could develop along the western edge of the stratus overnight. Current nighttime satellite imagery and recent surface observations also indicate patchy fog developing along the Highway 52 corridor northwest of Kenmare. Both the low clouds and any fog that develops should erode from west to east through the night and into Saturday morning as surface winds turn southwesterly, except along the southern and western slopes of the Turtle Mountains where upslope flow could maintain low clouds/fog until midday.

UPDATE Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A band of snow, with some sleet possibly mixed in, has greatly diminished over the southern James River Valley within the last hour. A few flurries may linger there for a couple more hours early this evening. A few CAMs hint at a mid level shortwave bringing an area of scattered showers (mix of snow and freezing rain) through north central North Dakota later tonight into early Saturday morning. While deep layer forcing and conditional instability are evident, associated model soundings barely show any saturation. Therefore, not adding this to the forecast at this time, but will monitor rapid refresh model trends throughout the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 403 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Quick update to PoPs and QPF for the deformation zone band slowly crossing the southern James River Valley. Could see up to around one inch of new snow accumulation across LaMoure and Dickey Counties through the rest of the afternoon. The snow should shift off to the east by early evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The current upper level wind pattern features a ridge over the eastern Pacific and over the eastern CONUS with a trough over the central U.S. In our area, a cold front exited the forecast area early this morning. Cold air has dropped south from Canada, ending the threat for freezing precipitation. However, shortwave energy and the mid-upper level trough is resulting in a band of post frontal snow tracking through the James River Valley late this afternoon. Expect little in the way of accumulations but areas along the South Dakota border from Ashley to Ellendale and Oakes may see a half inch or so. Expect this to exit the JRV by early this evening.

After today, our focus shifts to wind and fire weather concerns for the weekend. As the aforementioned surface trough moves east we will be situated in a broad northwest flow pattern that becomes more westerly on Sunday as the eastern Pacific ridging pushes eastward into the Plains. This ridging will result in mild high on Saturday to Unseasonably warm temperatures for Sunday. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 30s around the Turtle Mountains to the 50s south and west of the Missouri River. On Sunday, forecast highs range from the upper 40s around the Turtle Mountains to the upper 60s and even some lower 70s south and west of the River. There is some concern regarding highs on Saturday due to some increasing mid and high level cloudiness, and the arrival of a cold front, but think westerly downslope winds through much of the day, with a warm start to begin with (mid 30s to lower 40s) record highs for Sunday will be a good bet.

The main concerns for the weekend will be wind and fire weather concerns.

Winds: A pair of clippers tracking through southern Canada. The first drags a surface trough/wind shift through the forecast area on Saturday. Winds most of the day are expected to be southwest, but shift west late in the day. During the afternoon we see a pretty steep lapse rate develop over southern ND, an higher winds aloft may work down to the surface. Strongest winds Saturday will be over western ND, with advisory level winds not out of the question, especially southwest where the stronger gradient winds and steeper lapse rates coincide.

The second, stronger clipper tracks through area Sunday, with the surface low tracking right along the International Border. Very warm air ahead of the cold front pushes across the forecast area during the day. Gradient winds are not especially strong during the day Sunday ahead of the cold front. However, we will see another day with the potential for stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Then as the cold front moves through Sunday night, Strong gradient winds drop south over the forecast area, congruent with a brief period of strong cold advection and isallobaric winds associated with a pressure fall/rise couplet. This strongest surge of winds occurs mainly during the evening, but would not be surprised if winds remain windy through the night. Wind advisory criteria winds are probably a good bet in the afternoon in the west, then advisory criteria to possibly High Wind Criteria winds may occur in the evening and possibly linger through the overnight, moreso across the southwest and south central. Will need to monitor.

Fire Weather: Given warm temperatures and strong winds, near critical fire weather concerns are expected for many areas west and south of the Missouri River on Saturday and Sunday. At this time it look like Saturday will be a marginal day as the duration of strong winds is pretty short, max winds are not as high and relative humidities remain above 30 percent. On Sunday, the wind potential is higher, the duration of the winds is longer and minimum humidities are lower (20 to 25 percent in the far southwest). In addition, forecast highs are well into the 60s and could approach 70 degrees. Therefore Sunday looks to be solid near critical day, with the far southwest/ south central possibly needing a Red Flag Warning. Will continue to monitor.

After the weekend, temperatures trend lower, but remain near to above normal with increasing chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

IFR ceilings will be slow to erode from west to east across the eastern half of the state tonight. There could also be some patchy fog in central parts of the state overnight into Saturday morning, particularly along the western edge of the low clouds. Aside from KJMS, all other major terminals are unlikely to see prevailing categorical flight restrictions through tonight, and VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from late Saturday morning onward. Underneath the low clouds, winds will remain northwest around 10-15 kts. Otherwise, expect a transition to light and variable winds, then southwesterly around 5-10 kts overnight, and increasing to 15-25 kts out of the west-southwest by Saturday afternoon with gusts around 30 to near 40 kts. Westerly winds will remain breezy at around 10-20 kts Saturday evening, and a few rain showers could develop across northwest and north central North Dakota by the end of the forecast period. Some low level wind shear could return Saturday evening, mainly along and east of a line from KMOT to KBIS including KJMS.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.