textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to high thunderstorm chances return Thursday and Friday (50 to 80 percent, greatest in the evenings). Some storms may be severe.

- Scattered (level 2 out of 5) severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds to 80 mph.

- Isolated (level 1 out of 5) severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be hail up to the size of quarters and 60 mph winds.

- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (~20 to 50 percent) linger through the Holiday Weekend.

- Near to above normal temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s are forecast Thursday through the Holiday Weekend. Sunday into early next week could see temperatures in some areas climb into the mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows convection has ended over the far south. Isolated to scattered showers continue along the International Border, mostly in Canada, but some shower activity is sneaking down into northern portions of Bottineau and Rolette Counties this afternoon, and perhaps northern Renville. Most of western and central ND was under mostly sunny skies with westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. All in all an nice day for all the activity going on today.

We are carrying some slight chance pops in the southwest and south central this afternoon and early evening. Some of the latest CAMS do show shower activity developing in the southwest this afternoon and a cu field has developed over the southwest in the past hour or so. Will keep the pops for consistency but the instability is weak and shear is nil so the severe threat is very low. There may be a weak impulse within the southwest upper flow moving into ND, but overall, upper level ridging will be over the area this afternoon/evening.

Quiet overnight, with lows mainly in the 50s.

We ratchet up the threat for severe weather tomorrow. A broad southwest upper flow remains over the area with increasing low level moisture with dew point temperatures climbing into the 60s. A very unstable airmass develops by Thursday afternoon with a Cap being eroded with daytime heating and warm advection. There is a surface trough over western ND by mid afternoon with shortwave energy approaching from Montana. At this time, it looks like convection could develop over western ND near the surface trough, and along an east-west boundary, although there is a lot of uncertainty as to where the boundary is Thursday afternoon and if/when convection develops along it. Cams are showing differing solutions along the E-W boundary from convection along the ND/SD border, to along the I-94 corridor. Convective initiation varies from early afternoon to late afternoon so a lot of uncertainty remains in the timing/placement of convection Thursday. If/when convection does develop there is maybe a little more certainty in the mode. Convection along an east-west boundary looks to be mixed/messy with an inclination to grow upscale into a MCS with winds to 80 mph the main threat. An initial supercell can not be ruled out though before linear convection prevails. The better potential for initial and longer sustained supercells (with large to very large hail to around 2 inches) would be over western ND near the surface trough. With larger T/Td spreads here (especially the west central to southwest) the tornado threat would be lower, but not zero, given the strong instability and storm mode. Finally with precipitable water increasing to greater than 1.5", any thunderstorms will have the potential to produce very high precipitation rates, with localized areas of excessive rainfall. Hopefully as we get closer to Thursday afternoon, things will become clearer. An enhanced risk is not out of the question if some of these uncertainties become better calibrated Thursday afternoon/evening. But for now the higher wind potential looks to be in the south central/southeast, or wherever the E-W boundary ends up. The threat for to very large hail would be associated with longer sustained supercells, which would point to western ND, with also a transition to a more linear wind threat over time. The threat for a tornado can not be ruled out in either area, but is lower than the hail/wind threat. The same can be said for the threat for very heavy rain.

Friday will bring another round of strong to possibly severe storms. At this time it looks like there may be some upper level ridging and a transition from more of a southwest flow to a zonal flow. This may lower the overall severe potential, but we will see how this plays out. For now we will go with quarter size hail and 60 mph winds for the main hazards.

Over the Holiday Weekend, thunderstorm chances will continue but at this time it looks to be low to medium chances for thunderstorms, rather than medium to high chances. Diurnally driven afternoon/evening instability will exist each day, but with marginal bulk shear, at least for now. We will have to play it on a day to day basis for any eventual severe threat over the weekend. Sunday and into early next week the heat does ratchet up with some areas seeing mid and possibly even upper 90s for daytime highs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at all TAF sites through the 18Z TAF period. There is a low probability of MVFR ceilings along the International border for a short period Thursday morning. Generally westerly winds today 15 knots or less, becoming light tonight and shifting to the east on Thursday 15 knots or less. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon, just beyond the TAF period. It's possible thunderstorm activity could begin towards the end of the TAF period, but too much uncertainty to include in TAFs attim.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.