textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog today with dense fog at times. - Large contrast in temperatures today from near the Canadian border to the ND/SD border with seasonable temperatures Friday. - Low to medium chances for snow and possibly a little rain mixed in tonight through Friday.

- Another modest warmup with windy conditions this weekend, then a cooling trend with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1034 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Opted to extend the Dense Fog Advisory into early this afternoon (19Z), and will likely be extending farther in time but will relook things around noonish. Other updates included adjusting fog placement today and tonight based on latest HRRR and RAP, which are in agreement with each other, and tweaking POPs based on latest data. For now kept sct flurries going through 19Z, with an embedded wave pushing northeast through the region, and should exit to our northeast by 18Z or so. Models advertising some light freezing drizzle or rain over my northeast this afternoon, so this was added to the forecast and will relook this as well over the next few hours. Lastly, temperatures were adjusted down a bit considering the amount of cloud cover in place and really only scattering out across the southwest this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Widespread advection fog is present across most of the state. Overall, most observations remain in excess of a mile, however, there are pockets of dense fog being observed as well. Therefore, intend on maintaining the Dense Fog Advisory as-is for now, which remains in effect until 10 am CST/9 am MST. While fog may persist across much of the state for much of the day and possibly into tonight, coverage will likely decrease. Especially in the west. As an aside, scattered flurries have been observed across parts of the area and may occur so long as low-level stratus is present.

Otherwise, a frontal boundary currently analyzed as a cold frontal boundary is draped from west to east over northern South Dakota. However, the boundary is really more stationary in nature and will remain so through the day today. This boundary does seem further south than progged in previous days. Surface low pressure transiting through south Dakota today may push the frontal boundary slightly more north, perhaps with a southwest to northeast tilt. This will produce southerly flow that advects warmer air into the south central and southeast. Still, with widespread stratus and fog, NBM high temperatures seemed a little high today for the I94 corridor and south. Therefore, went with an NBM 10/25 blend which results in highs from the low 20s near the International border to the low 40s along the I94 corridor, and the low 50s along the ND/SD border.

Shortwave energy passing through the Northern Plains tonight through Friday may potentially produce light precipitation. Currently, this favors light snow in the northwest tonight and then light snow in the south central and east on Friday, though some rain or even freezing rain could mix in Friday morning. All in all, precipitation should be light with around a 30 to 50 percent chance of an inch of snow for either time period.

Beyond Friday, expect the return of mostly dry conditions and well above average temperatures this weekend. This will result in widespread highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the state, except the northeast, on Sunday. A cooling trend and more active pattern is then favored to start next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

IFR/LIFR stratus and fog, dense at times, are expected to persist across the state through this morning and into the afternoon. Scattered flurries are expected at times under this low-level stratus. Though fog may linger, visibility will likely improve to at least MVFR levels for most locations this afternoon. Ceilings should remain IFR/LIFR for most locations through at least this evening, though western ND may see some improvement this afternoon. Light snow is possible in northwestern ND tonight, while a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow is possible in southeastern parts of the state, including the James River Valley, late tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CST /noon MST/ this afternoon for NDZ022-023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051.