textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow will return to southern North Dakota today, with low chances for light snow elsewhere. Snowfall totals around 1 to 2 inches are expected along and south of Interstate 94, with locally higher amount possible if banded snow develops.

- Cooler and near normal temperatures through mid week. After a brief warmup Thursday, cooler and perhaps below normal temperatures expected this weekend.

- Windy conditions, with chances for rain and snow, may return Thursday.

- Medium chances of accumulating snow remain for the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Bands of light snow are starting to form in Montana and still forecast to move into North Dakota later today. Meanwhile low clouds along a secondary boundary are starting to push into northern North Dakota, and may produce a few flurries or light snow. Overall the forecast remains on track with little updates needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A series of weak fronts will push across the state today and bring areas of mainly light snow. The higher chances for accumulating snow still look to be found along and south of Interstate 94 today into the evening hours. Forecast snowfall in these areas still remains around 1 to 2 inches. HREF stamps have some higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated 6 inch amounts, although there still remains low probability for these heavier bands of snow to occur. Forcing wise, there does look to be at least some brief areas of enhance frontogenesis, steep lapse rates, and a favorable jet stream location. However, latest deterministic model runs starting to shift these better banded snow features south. Thus will maintain higher pops in these southern areas, yet still message the 1 to 2 inch snowfall being the more likely amounts today. Northern areas have less of a chance for snow, although a secondary cold front could push across the north this morning into the afternoon bringing at least a slight chance for snow. Temperatures behind this front will cool quite a bit today, with highs forecast in the 20s and 30s, with some lower 40s south. Breezy northwest winds will also diminish this morning, and become an east to southeast wind later today. Today's snow looks to diminish tonight, although cloudy skies with a few flurries may remain through the night. Look for lows mainly in the 20s tonight. A broad trough is then expected to move across the state on Tuesday. Chances for light snow may return, mainly in the south, as a result while temperatures remain cooler yet near normal. Broad ridging could then diminish these snow chances Tuesday night, with lingering cloud cover leaving low temperatures in the teens and 20s. This ridge then moves through Wednesday, bringing mainly dry conditions and perhaps some slightly warmer temperatures in the 40s. Southwest flow aloft could bring in some dry air, lower afternoon humidity values in the 20s and 30s for some western areas and bringing some breezy westerly winds. With highs in the 40s for Wednesday, the fire weather threat should remain low. Mild and dry air then filters in Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s.

A quick moving yet potentially potent clipper system could still push across the state on Thursday through Thursday night. This this system could come strong northwest winds and chances for rain and snow. NBM backed off on the winds slightly for Thursday. GFS still showing these strong winds, with the ECMWF shifting the low further south. Although ECMWF EFI still hint strong winds are possible with some shift of tails showing up in the southwest. Thus blended in some NBM90th for winds to maintain the messaging of strong wind potential. The track of this low will also greatly determine precipitation location and types. NBM now has likely PoPs in the middle of these two tracks, across much of North Dakota. Warmer temperatures with this system should limit accumulating snow as highs on Thursday are forecast in the 40s to lower 50s. If a more southerly track to the low happens, then perhaps cooler temperatures are possible as indicated by some bigger temperatures spreads in the NBM. The NBM also has 10 to 40% chance of at least an inch or more of snow with this system, but is also likely temperature dependent. For now will favor rain during the day on Thursday, with snow chances in the morning and at night, given the warmer forecast currently in the NBM. Cooler temperatures and lingering breezy winds could then settle in Thursday night with lows in the teens at 20s along with some lingering chances for light snow.

Friday through the upcoming weekend, clusters starting to come together that a broad surface low could bring widespread snow to the state. Uncertainty remains on how far south a high in Canada can move which would impact the location of the higher snowfall amounts. There may also be some timing differences for start time of snow. Right now NBM indicating Friday through at least Saturday night could see chances for accumulating snow. The NBM 48 hour probabilities for 4 inches of snow during this time period are 40 to 60% across much of the CWA with a 10 to 40% chance of at least 6 inches of snow. Something to monitor for the upcoming weekend. Depending on the location of the low there could be some breezy winds with this system as well. Temperatures could go on a cooling trend through the weekend, with highs Friday in the 20s and 30s to the teens and 20s for highs on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning could even dip into the single digits and teens across the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will be found across the forecast area today and through tonight. Light snow could also return today, especially to southern portions of the state reinforcing MVFR conditions and perhaps bringing some brief IFR conditions. Snow then diminishes this evening, although MVFR ceilings may linger for some sites. Northerly winds will become easterly today, southerly tonight, and westerly later tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.