textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures over most locations except far north central North Dakota today before a cold front settles through the area. - Low to medium chances for rain later this afternoon through this evening, possibly a little light snow north.

- Notably cooler temperatures Sunday, then a warming trend into mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 929 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Some patchy fog remains across the north, and could linger through the morning hours. A cold front is still expected to push through this afternoon, bringing mainly rain showers north to south, with some snow mixed in across the cooler portions. Until this front moves through, above normal temperatures will continue. There still could be some near critical fire weather conditions in the southwest, although the window for this is brief today. Regardless will keep the fire weather messaging from the previous shift.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Some fog lingers over far north central North Dakota where cooler temperatures and low level moisture remain. Going forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Current surface analysis places low over far north central North Dakota with cold front stretching to the west-northwest, while high remains over the central Rockies. Upper level analysis places persistant high over the desert southwest, with ridge over the western into the central CONUS. Short wave noted in the flow now pushing into the western edge of the northern Rockies. Over our area, some patches of fog remain over parts of north central North Dakota where ample low level moisture is present. Otherwise, remaining locations have been quite mild with temperatures remaining in the 40s to mid 50s.

For today, aforementioned cold front will gradually drop through the area. With that said, the timing of this frontal passage will be relative slow, therefore many areas ahead of the front will have time to climb to well above average temperatures, with some 70s expected over far southern portions of the state. As the front settles through and aforementioned short wave continues its approach, low to medium chances for some light rain (possibly a little light snow far north) will pass through the area from north to south later today into this evening, though if any precipitation were to occur it should be quite light.

Sunday will see notably cooler temperatures behind the front, along with low chances over western parts of the state for a little light snow, maybe a bit of light rain in the afternoon.

Temperatures start to rebound on Monday before cooling a tad on Tuesday, particularly over northern and eastern areas, as a weak wave passes by. Notable warming on Wednesday with low to medium precipitation chances before cooler temperatures return.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Periods of low level wind shear expected at all terminals early this morning. Winds will become northwest-northerly today as a cold front moves into the region. MVFR with areas of IFR ceilings develop north and east this morning, slowly spreading south and west this afternoon and evening lingering overnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.