textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of snow ending this morning. Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) of seeing 2 or more inches of snow over a corridor from around Bismarck-Steele to around Harvey- Carrington. Locally higher amounts to 4 inches possible.

- Well below average temperatures today with highs mainly in the 30s. Windy as well today, with northwest winds gusting to near 40 mph at times.

- Temperatures trend warmer through this weekend and into the middle portions of next week, along with mainly dry weather.

- Active weather pattern is favored after Wednesday of next week, along with a cooling trend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Currently, split flow aloft early this morning with a northern stream cutoff low over far southern Saskatchewan resulting in strong southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Strong frontogenesis brought a period of moderate to sometimes heavy precipitation over the past several hours over southwest into central areas of North Dakota. This precipitation is ongoing, and mainly in the form of snow at this time, from south central into northeastern ND. Colder air aloft continues to push south- southeast, and there remains a chance for a wintry mix on the leading edge of the precipitation for a few more hours.

Precipitation associated with the strong FG will end from west to east, by around mid morning across the James River Valley. Total snowfall is still expected to be around 2-3 inches, with some higher totals closer to 4 inches possible. With ongoing snowfall, will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory as is with this product issuance.

Another area of lighter precipitation in the form of snow, associated with the mid level low and now over northeastern Montana, will develop east into portions of my northwest and central through the morning hours today. Thereafter, the mid level low and overall split flow pattern propagates east across the Dakotas today, with a tight pressure gradient developing resulting in a blustery day with northwest wind gusts to 40 mph and afternoon temperatures mostly in the 30s.

Strong northwest flow aloft for Saturday, with latest model iterations showing embedded waves moving through, generating light QPF across the local region. NBM hasn't really caught onto this yet, so the forecast right now for Sat is dry. Anticipate NBM POPs to increase if current model trend hold. Continued breezy Sat (eastern half of the state), with temperatures slightly warmer in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

Flow aloft transitions to more west-northwest later this weekend into early next week, with this flow pattern bringing mild Pacific air into the Northern Plains. Temperatures quickly moderate back into the 60s and 70s Monday-Wednesday, along with mainly dry weather forecast.

After mid-week, an active/cooler weather pattern is then favored to end the week with ensembles still showing upper level troughing approaching from the west.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings at all terminals early this morning, as a low pressure system brings precipitation chances to across southwest and central North Dakota, and possibly some freezing rain to the James River Valley including the KJMS terminal. Winds will also become northwesterly and gusty behind a cold front. Conditions improve Friday morning west to east, with winds remaining gusty through the day. VFR Friday night with decreasing winds, though still breezy east.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ022- 023-025-035>037.