textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will fall across most of western and central North Dakota through this afternoon. The highest storm total snow amounts are forecast to be along a line from Crosby to Garrison to Jamestown, where 4 to 9 inches will be possible.

- Gusty northerly winds are forecast through this afternoon. Falling snow combined with these winds will cause areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. The strongest winds, with gusts up to 45 mph, are expected across southwestern North Dakota this morning.

- There is a chance for light accumulating snowfall Friday and Friday night across parts of the Northern Plains, which may impact travel.

- Well below normal temperatures are favored for the weekend after Thanksgiving and into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 30 below zero will be possible Sunday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Moderate to sometimes heavier snow continues across southern ND along the sfc trough axis and in conjunction with the TROWAL aloft. Just over 2 inches of snowfall at the Bismarck airport as of 0600 local time. Snow is sticky in nature, so our assumptions that blowing snow will be worse at times of falling snow is accurate.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently, strong S/WV trough moving east-southeast into the region early this morning, now over the western Dakotas and starting to show signs of cutting off. Associated sfc trough extends from north central South Dakota west-northwest into southwestern ND. Widespread light to moderate snow results across west and central North Dakota where the system's TROWAL wraps west-northwestward into the wave, with strong Div Q forcing across much of my area. Strong cold frontal boundary also continues to advance southward early this morning, and will changeover any lingering rain over my southeast to all snow over the next few hours. Lastly, northerly winds increasing in the wake of the sfc trough, and as expected strongest southwest where gusts to 45 mph have been observed.

Closed mid level low will move across central into eastern South Dakota through this morning, then into southern Minnesota this afternoon. Main upper level forcing resides over our local area mainly for this morning, then moves into Minnesota this afternoon. Still, TROWAL induced wrap around snow is forecast to continue over my east into the afternoon, ending over the James Vally by around sunset.

There remains potential we may receive greater than 6 inches of snow some locations east-southeast of Bismarck, though the lack of really strong forcing this afternoon and the progressive nature of the main forcing this morning leads me to maintain the winter weather advisory as is with this product issuance. With sunrise, we should start getting a better picture as reports start coming in, and there is still time for possible upgrades to a warning over the next several hours. Strongest winds will also occur this morning over the southwest, where up to 45-50 mph gusts will continue for several more hours. Will be breezy elsewhere through the day, with areas of blowing snow especially when and where snow is falling with the wind.

Northwest flow aloft will be in place for the remainder of the week, maintaining below normal temperatures with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Next chance of precipitation arrives late Thursday night through Friday, with split flow aloft and embedded S/WV's moving southeast across the Northern Plains. One of these waves induces surface low pressure developing in the lee of the Central Rockies, with an isentropic upglide forcing regime depicted somewhere over our region, currently favored by the NBM to impact much of western and central ND with near advisory level snowfall (at least 3 inches). GEFS ensembles keep most precip south, while the EC ensemble is closer to the NBM.

For this coming weekend, large upper low settles over Hudson Bay to our north-northeast, and will push a surge of Arctic air south into the north central CONUS. Coldest period is currently expected to be Sunday and Monday, when high temperatures are only forecast in the teens, along with subzero lows Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night. Coldest night right now expected to be Sunday night/Mon morning, when wind chill temperatures will approach 30 below some areas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Winter weather disturbance will bring widespread aviation impacts through the majority of the 12Z period. Snow will continue over all terminals this morning, before ending from west to east later this morning and afternoon. IFR to LIFR visibility can be expected with the falling snow. Ceilings are also expected to lower to MVFR/IFR levels at times, with improvement from the west this afternoon. Winds will become north to northwest and strengthen this morning and into the day, with sustained speeds around 20-25 kts and gusts as high as 35 kts. Winds will then taper off through this afternoon and evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for NDZ001>003-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ004-005.