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KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwest winds are expected across portions of central North Dakota through this evening.

- The strong winds will promote areas of blowing and drifting snow, which could briefly reduce visibility at times.

- Very cold wind chills expected across northwest and north central North Dakota tonight through mid Tuesday morning.

- Below average temperatures favored to continue through the work week, then warming to near or above average for the weekend.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light snow at times mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Cyclonic flow is found over the forecast area as a upper level low cuts far to the northeast into the Great Lakes Regions. An associated surface cold front has been pushing from north to south across North Dakota through the day, promoting periods of low to mid level ceilings and light flurries. A modest 40 to 45 knots 850mb jet has also developed across portions of northwestern and central North Dakota this afternoon. With moderate CAA, strong pressure rises, and elevated low level lapse rates along and behind the cold front, a portion of these stronger winds are expected to mix down to the surface across portions of central North Dakota, mostly in the James River Valley. Sustained speeds up to 30 MPH and gusts up to 45 MPH are expected through the afternoon and into the late evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect much of north central North Dakota through this afternoon, and for portions of central North Dakota into the northern James River Valley through this evening. With these strong winds, and with the development of Horizontal Convective Rolls (HCRs) across portions of central North Dakota this afternoon, patchy to area of blowing and drifting snow have developed. While most locations are expected to remain at 1 mile visibility or greater, visibilities as low as 1/2 mile have been observed in the Turtle Mountain area. Here, we have issued a Special Weather Statement through this afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish through this evening, though will remain somewhat breezy across portions of northwestern and central North Dakota overnight. We have broad brushed low chances for isolated snow showers across central North Dakota this afternoon through this evening to account for any snow lofted by the HCRs drifting back down to the surface. Otherwise, for today, highs are from the lower teens north to the lower to mid 20s south.

With the cooler airmass settling over the region on the backside of the cold front, and with breezy northwest winds overnight, northern North Dakota is expected to see very cold wind chills as low as 35 below zero overnight. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issue for much of northwestern and north central North Dakota, including the northern James River Valley, tonight through mid Tuesday morning. Otherwise for tonight, low chances for light, non-accumulating now will skim portions of the north central into the northern James River Valley through early Tuesday morning.

North to northwesterly flow is expected to persist across the northern Plains through much of the coming workweek, stuck as we are between a ridge across the Pacific Northwest and a Hudson Bay Low to our northeast. Shortwave perturbations ejecting off of this low will promote the odd weak clipper to cut across the northern Plains, promoting occasional low chances for precpitation through the week. The first of these is anticipated late Wednesday through Thursday, with the NBM advertising low chances for light snow (20 to 30 percent) across portions of western and south central North Dakota. An interrogation of ensemble members during this period reveals that this is driven by a wet minority cluster (40 percent of ensemble members) comprised mainly of the GEFS ensemble family. Even in this scenario, only a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow can be expected at this time.

A somewhat more robust wave is then expected late Friday through late Sunday, sliding across the forecast area as the Hudson Bay Low is dislodged further downstream. With this, medium chances for light snowfall is expected across much of the forecast area. Cluster analysis reveals a good amount of agreement between ensemble members for a light accumulation of snow through this period, with most locations only expected to see a trace to a few tenths of an inch of snow, while north central North Dakota has a low chance to exceed 1 inch of snow overall. Ensemble members do diverge somewhat on conditions on the backside of wave, Sunday into early week week. Ensemble members are split into two broad scenarios, a warm and dry solution, and a wet and cool solution, with difference being how they handle downstream flow over eastern Canada through this period. The warm and dry solution has a slight majority (55 percent of members) and favors relatively organized flow further downstream over eastern Canada, mainly in the form of a broad closed low or modest trough aloft. This will allow for the further eastward progression of a developing ridge across the northern Plains. In this scenario, temperatures are near to slightly above normal across the forecast area, and what limited precpitation we see during this period should be very light. The wet and cold solution (45 percent of members) instead captures slightly more chaotic, split flow developing over eastern Canada through this period that is slower to progress eastward. In this circumstance, the slow downstream evolution will prevent the developing ridge to move too far east, which will allow for more clippers to induce precpitation across the forecast area. While overall precpitation would still be light through this period, some snow accumulation can be anticipated. Highs in this scenario are also cooler, remaining below normal for this time of year. Looking further ahead, near to above normal high temperatures are favored by both CIPS analogues and by the CPC through the first week of February.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Mainly VFR ceilings and visibility are found across across the forecast area at the beginning of the 18Z TAF period. Brief dips into MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility have been found along and behind a cold front moving into northern North Dakota this afternoon, inducing light flurries and patchy blowing snow. Horizontal Convective Rolls (HCRs) have also begun to develop across portions of central North Dakota, promoting isolated light snow showers through this afternoon. With this, have included prevailing MVFR ceilings at KXWA and KMOT, and TEMPO groups for IFR ceilings and reduced visibility due to blowing snow. The confidence to include mentions of such as too low to include at other TAF sites at this time. Strong northwest winds are also expected along and behind the cold front moving across North Dakota today, strongest with speeds around 30 knots and gusts up to 40 knots expected across north central North Dakota into the James River Valley. Winds should start to diminish late this afternoon through this evening, light across the west though remaining breezy across central North Dakota overnight through the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ003>005- 011>013-021-022. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for NDZ023-025-036- 037-047.