textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above normal temperatures favored through the weekend. Today is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the upper 30s northeast to lower 60s far southwest.

- Low chance of light flurries/freezing drizzle this evening through Friday morning. Patchy fog also possible southwest.

- Slight (20%) chance for light snow could return early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Quiet weather is found across the forecast area this morning, with no adjustments to the forecast performed at this time. Mid to high level clouds continue to blanket the northern Plains this morning, though will begin to erode across the west by the early afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Flow over the northern Plains is turning increasingly out of the northwest this morning. With this, unseasonably warm weather continues across the forecast area, with lows this morning from the mid 20s to mid 30s, and highs this afternoon forecast from the upper 30s in the Turtle Mountains area, to the upper 50s and lower 60s in the southwest. Quiet weather is anticipated throughout the day today, with mid to high level cloud cover expected to diminish from west to east as high pressure slides in. Breezy northwest winds with speeds up to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH are expected to develop this afternoon as CAA and pressure rises increase through the day.

This evening through Friday morning, there is a slight chance (10 to 20 percent) for very light precpitation portions of northwestern and central North Dakota as moisture surges into the first 1KM of the column out of Canada. While mainly falling as flurries periods of freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out, especially in the northwest and south central where temperatures remains comparably warmer overnight. The saturated layer remains comparably shallow in the southwest, though could still allow for patchy to areas of fog Friday morning as north northwesterly winds die out overnight. Elsewhere, breezy northwest winds are expected to persist overnight. Light precpitation and fog is anticipated to diminish through late Friday morning and early afternoon as a cooler and drier airmass drops across the northern Plains.

The cold front moving from north to south across North Dakota on Friday is expected to dampen warming trend we've experienced through the week, though temperatures in the southwest will likely still remain above normal. High temperatures on Friday are forecast from the lower teens in the Turtle Mountains area, up to the upper 40s in the far southwest. Mainly dry conditions are expected to persist Friday, though another surge of near surface moisture may allow for another period of light flurries/freezing drizzle overnight through Saturday morning. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings through this period reveals that this saturated layer may be fairly shallow, only through the first 1/2KM or so, and thus any light precpitation that does develop may be fairly isolated.

The ensemble remains split on the return of warming temperatures this weekend, split between a broadly warmer solution (50 percent of members) which advertises the redeveloping of the upper level ridge, and a cooler solution (50 percent membership), that instead favors a near zonal flow pattern over the region. This cooler solution in particular would favor a strong baroclinic zone develop across North Dakota, with highs near 30 in the northeast to near 60 in the southwest. In this scenario we could anticipate at least low chances for light precpitation across northern North Dakota by the end of the weekend. Other than that, our next opportunity for precipitation across much of the forecast area will be early next week as a shortwave cuts across increasingly southwesterly flow (low chances). With warm temperatures lingering Monday, this precpitation may initially fall as a mix of wintry precpitation, before transitioning to mainly snow by Tuesday as we continue to cool. Long term models continue to advertise the arrival for a strong, positively tilted pacific trough making landfall in the western CONUS by mid next week, which would signal a pattern change out of the very warm and comparably dry conditions we've been experiencing. This shift is reflected in the CIPS climate analogues, which leans toward near normal temperatures and above normal precpitation by the end of next week. Of course, at this time scale, details about what, where, and when for any potential system remains obscured.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is found at all terminals to begin the 12Z TAF period. LLWS is present across portions of central North Dakota this morning, including at KBIS. While this initial round of LLWS will diminish by the mid to late morning, a developing 850mb jet will cause another round of LLWS across much of the forecast area this afternoon through the late evening. By the late evening early overnight period, low stratus is expected to drop out of Canada and spread across the forecast area, promoting broad MVFR to IFR ceilings at all terminals through Friday morning. Light precpitation in the form of flurries and some freezing drizzle is possible underneath this stratus deck in the northwest and central North Dakota. In the southwest, patchy fog is expected to develop in the early morning and linger through the end of the TAF period. Winds this morning are generally light to moderate out of the northwest. Winds will strengthen through the day, especially in the northwest and central where speeds up to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots are possible. Strong winds across the northwest and central expected to turn northerly overnight as a cold front moves out of the Canada. Winds across the southwest are expected to diminish and become very light by the early morning through the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.