textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with only a few hit and miss showers possible through the weekend.

- Near to above normal temperatures through the weekend, then slightly cooler early to mid-week next week.

- Dry conditions combined with breezy winds at times could lead to near critical fire weather conditions this weekend through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Overall, the forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The meso low responsible for scattered showers and gusty winds with varying directions earlier this afternoon has moved into northeast South Dakota. A quiet evening is anticipated, with a partly to mostly clear sky and decreasing winds. We did introduce a 20 percent chance of light rain moving from north to south across central North Dakota late tonight through Friday morning for the mid level vort streak and upper level jet left exit region that are forecast to move through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A weak meso low in northwest flow will push across the state through this evening bringing some cloud cover and a few isolated showers. Dry and more clear conditions will be found in the west. Some breezy northwest winds, combined with low afternoon humidity values could also bring some isolated near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening, mainly in the southwest. Tonight, winds will become light and variable with a surface high moving into the region. A weak mid level wave could bring some clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles or flurries overnight tonight into Friday morning. Lows tonight will generally be near 30 degrees. Surface high moves more into the state on Friday, bringing light winds and mainly dry conditions. Westerly winds aloft will begin a warming trend with 60s in the west and 50s in the east. This will bring some lower RH values in the afternoon although light winds will limit the fire danger threat. Mild and continued dry conditions will then be found Friday night, with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.

A surface low is forecast to move through Saturday, bringing warm temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. This could bring some increased northwest winds as well. Dry conditions should limit chances for showers. These dry conditions combined with some breezy winds could bring some increased fire weather concerns to perhaps near critical fire weather conditions. Dry conditions with mild temperatures then look to remain for Saturday night. Sunday looks to remain above normal temperatures, with continued dry and breezy conditions. This again could bring some increased fire weather concerns. Sunday night through Monday, a mainly dry cold front is forecast to push through, bringing slightly cooler temperatures. Breezy to windy conditions are possible. This combined with continued low RH values could lead to some near critical fire weather conditions on Monday. Clusters then indicate northwest flow to prevail through at least mid next week. This pattern is expected to bring below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and perhaps some isolated to scattered showers. Temperature spreads begin to broaden later in the week as there remains some uncertainty on how far inland the next ridge can build. Perhaps a slight warmup is possible later next week while limited chances for precipitation remain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. An area of mid clouds is forecast to migrate southward through western and central North Dakota late tonight through Friday morning. A few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible with these clouds, with no impacts to aviation expected. Light and variable winds through tonight will then become northwest to north around 5-10 kts Friday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.