textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend warmer/above normal for this weekend, along with breezy daytime winds.

- Widespread 40 to 60 percent precipitation chances later this weekend and through early next week. A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday.

- Active weather pattern continues next week, along with near normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Currently, west-northwest flow aloft with a tilted upper level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back northwest to across the Rockies. Surface high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and will continue to build east tonight. Southerly return flow in the sfc high's wake, warming temperatures well into the 50s across the western half of the state along with ample sunshine this afternoon.

Broad upper level ridge builds into the Northern Plains tomorrow, and will continue to bring a nice warming trend to the Dakotas this weekend, with widespread highs in the mid 50s to mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. Upper ridge moves off to our east and is replaced with southwest flow aloft Sat night into Sunday. Multiple embedded waves in this flow will bring increased chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region Sat night through Sunday as they interact with a sfc low moving east across the local region.

Models still show a quasi-split flow for early next week, with a northern stream wave pushing east across the Dakotas Monday and Tuesday maintaining decent chances for moisture. Cooler temperatures for Monday with CAA behind Sunday's surface low. Models not as cold, and looks to be only 10-15 degrees cooler than Sunday for afternoon highs.

We then remain in an active flow pattern through much of next week, favoring precipitation chances pretty much each period along with temperatures averaging near normal. By the end of the week, ensembles continue to favor broad troughing which would suggest cooler temperatures and probabilities for snow increasing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the majority of the 18Z period at all terminals. Light winds early today will increase this afternoon and into tonight from the south-southeast. Some low level wind shear could return, although only have this in the KJMS TAF for now where the probability of occurrence is highest. In addition, models are in fair agreement with an area of low level stratus (MVFR to IFR ceilings) advecting from south to north over the eastern Dakotas late tonight through Sat morning, and may impact KJMS after 12Z. Will continue to monitor, but did include a mention in the 18Z KJMS TAF.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.