textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog this morning, possibly dense at times.

- Snow develops into the region today, continuing through tonight before ending later Saturday morning. Greatest snow amounts expected over southwest and across portions of south central North Dakota, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.

- Well below average temperatures are favored for this coming weekend and into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 25 below zero will be possible both Saturday night and Sunday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Snow has developed southwest, and will continue to expand east as the morning progresses. Only made some slight modifications to POPs based on latest radar imagery and latest CAMs. See below for more details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a S/WV trough over the Pacific Northwest region along with northern stream waves across western Canada. Ridge of surface high pressure remains quasi- stationary over central North Dakota into eastern South Dakota, contributing to another morning of areas of fog and light sfc winds. Sfc observations and web cam imagery continue to show overall decent visibility, thus no plans for any elevated messaging regarding the fog at this time. Bowman radar also showing the initial area of snow approaching my southwest.

For today, aforementioned S/WV continues southeast into the Rockies today, then into the Great Plains tonight. Mid level/700mb closed low, now over north central Montana, develops southeast across southwest and south central ND today and this evening, coupled with a broad isentropic/upglide flow regime in place across the Dakotas. Initially expect a band of enhanced snow developing into southwest North Dakota early this morning, then into far south central ND thereafter as there will be a period this morning of Div Q forcing coinciding with a band of frontogensis orientated northwest to southeast. Broader mid level forcing/overrunning flow this afternoon and tonight when the aforementioned 700mb low and the main upper wave will be the main forcing mechanisms. BUFKIT analysis shows decent lift in a modest DGZ, with snow ratios forecast to increase to greater than 15:1 and perhaps closer to 20:1 by this evening. Thus, despite limited liquid and low level forcing, we are still expecting decent snow accumulations later today into tonight west and south central.

With the greatest snow amounts still looking to be along and south/west of the Missouri River, along with southern portions of south central ND along the SD border, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory as is at this time.

Large upper low settles over Hudson Bay to our north-northeast this weekend, and will push a sample of Arctic air south into the north central CONUS. Coldest period is still expected to be Sunday, when high temperatures are only forecast in the single digits and teens, along with widespread subzero lows Sat night and Sun night with cold surface high pressure over the region. Thereafter, northwest flow will dominate, with a variety of weak disturbances passing through the region next week, each bringing low to medium snow chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Low stratus persists across much of the region, along with areas of fog and/or flurries reducing visibility at times. Amendments will be made for fog and/or stratus if it develops near any terminal. A weather disturbance will bring snow and associated low cigs and visibility to the southwest this morning, expanding north and east on today and tonight. Winds are forecast to remain out of the east through the period up to 15 knots (may see a bit higher winds to 20 knots at KDIK during the day today).

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ031>033-040>045.