textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Sunday, with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

- Much colder beginning Tuesday, with well below normal temperatures favored for the Thanksgiving weekend.

- High chances for accumulating snow Monday night through Tuesday evening, with a medium chance for at least 2 inches of snow over much of western and central North Dakota.

- Strong northwest winds are forecast Monday night through Wednesday, with the strongest winds on Tuesday. The combination of falling snow with blowing and drifting snow could make travel hazardous late Monday night through Tuesday evening. - Although it is too far out for details, there is increasing confidence in an active weather pattern after Thanksgiving, which could impact travel across the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The forecast for tonight remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mild and dry conditions are expected through Sunday. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s tonight. Highs on Sunday could approach 60 degrees in some areas. It may be a bit breezy at times Sunday afternoon, but for the most part we expect generally light west to southwest winds. A good day to do any last minute outdoor activities or winterizing, before below normal temperatures return on Tuesday and continue through the end of November.

Monday will be a transition day from broad upper level ridge which has been in control for the past several days, to a colder northwest upper flow. Overall, Monday should shape up to be a pretty nice day as well, especially farther south and east. Highs should still remain around 50 along the South Dakota Border, with highs near 40 along the International Border. The shortwave that moves onto the Pacific Northwest Coast and track across the Northern Rockies looks to bring increasing precipitation chances over western ND Monday afternoon. The shortwave tracks across the state late Monday night through Tuesday. Rain initially Monday afternoon mixes with, and changes to snow Monday night from northwest to southeast. Winds initially (out of the east) are not forecast to be that strong. But once the wave passes, northwest winds will increase. Depending on how things play out we could see some blowing and drifting snow by early Tuesday morning over western ND. The snow and blowing and drifting snow will propagate eastward through the day on Tuesday. By 00Z Wednesday, High pressure is becoming situated over western ND with precipitation exiting the James River Valley. Depending on snow amounts, some blowing and drifting snow may linger over central ND Tuesday evening.

Looking at the WPC super-ensemble viewer, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of the system and resulting path of heavier snow, ranging from southern Canada to northern South Dakota. However if you average them all out you'd probably get something similar to the NBM. The NBM showed medium probabilities (40 to 70%) for at least 2 inches of snow across most of western and central ND. The exception, at this time, being the far southwest (with a low probability for at least 2 inches). Desi is showing about a 60 to 40 split with the slight favoring (60%) to a slightly stronger system. The GEFS is the major player in the stronger solution, with no membership in the weaker solution. However, the trend of the GEFS today is more progressive than previous runs, so when you compare the mean 24 hour snowfall for this system, there isn't a whole lot of difference between the higher (3-4 inch) GEFS solution and the lower (1-1.5 inch) non-GEFS solution.

We utilized the Probability for at least 2 inches of snow for our main messaging today. Hopefully getting the word out that there's a pretty good chance for some shovelable snow. When you add the potential for some strong winds with blowing and drifting snow, along with cold temperatures that do not climb above freezing after the snow, the probability for travel impacts increases. Although it's too early for snow accumulations and such, we have pretty high confidence that we will see at least minor travel impacts Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thanksgiving day currently look to be mainly dry as high pressure tracks southeast across the forecast area. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s, then a little cooler Thanksgiving Day with highs in the upper teens to upper 20s. Lows Thanksgiving morning are forecast to be in the single digits above zero into the lower teens.

Active weather may return Friday through Sunday with another system tracking through the region and followed by another re- enforcing shot of cold air. Stay tuned as the active weather pattern could impact travel in the region for at least portions of the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.