textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance (25 percent) for light snow across the far south today.

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through Friday, then are favored to trend cooler this weekend.

- Medium to high (40 to 60%) chance for accumulating snow across the south Friday to Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Currently northwest flow is present over the Northern Plains. At the surface a high pressure is sitting in the eastern Dakotas. Low stratus clouds have formed in southwestern North Dakota on the edge of the high pressure. Some of these low clouds are actually fog, reducing visibilities to less than 2 miles. This should continue through the late morning until the diurnal heating increases the dew point depressions.

Today will be near or above normal temperatures. A slight shortwave in the northwest flow will move through South Dakota today, leading to chances of snow. Most of the wave will miss North Dakota, so now the chances for snow are mainly just along the South Dakota border. Almost no snow accumulations are expected, especially with temperatures above freezing in most of those areas.

The rest of the week will be continued warmth with near to above normal highs. Thursday will be breezy with a passing low pressure to the south. Friday a clipper system will miss the state to the north, but a trailing cold front will move through the state. Winds will of course be windy. Temperatures will start to cool from north to south after 1pm CT. Friday night the southwest part of the state will be squeezed between a surface ridge in central ND, and a low pressure system in Wyoming. This will create a banded snow event. The band of snow will end up somewhere in the southwest half of the state, depending on how far that surface ridge moves south. Confidence is high in the event happening, the question is just where exactly. NBM probabilities for 2 inches of snow are 50 to 70 percent in the southwest corner, south of the Interstate. For 4 inches, it drops to 30 percent. The forecast trend for snow totals have been increasing, we will continue to monitor the situation.

In the high pressure and post cold front air, Saturday will be much cooler. Lows will be below zero north to around 10 elsewhere, then expect highs well below normal. Single digits in the north to lower 20s in the southwest. Sunday lows will be just as cold, with highs warming slightly more than Saturday's. Heading into next week uncertainty exponentially grows for temperatures. The NBM spreads are 30 degrees. This is mostly due to the models differing in a possible Colorado low (that would miss North Dakota) and different upper air flows. The range is shrinking and it is warmer overall from previous model runs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

An area of MVFR stratus is slowly moving south through south central ND, otherwise VFR. Patchy fog is also possible at western terminals tonight mainly affecting DIK. Northwest winds will become variable then southeasterly later tonight into Wed morning, with western ND winds transitioning to west/northwest winds Wed afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.