textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of light snow, freezing drizzle, and freezing rain today mainly in the south and east.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions this weekend could lead to near critical fire weather concerns, especially in the southwest.

- Near normal temperatures with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For the midday update we added some isolated flurries over the south central into the James River Valley, surrounding the slight chance to chance pops tracking across the JRV. Enough cold air has filtered in that freezing drizzle should not be an issue so we got rid of that. Post frontal precip is slow to move east so kept chances through the afternoon. We'll see if we may need to extend a bit into this evening. Mostly insignificant wx expected now that the threat for freezing drizzle has diminished.

UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Cold front has pushed through the forecast area. Post frontal light precip chances remain over the south central and into eastern ND today, but with little if any accumulating precip. In addition, as the colder air filters in, the chance for any freezing drizzle/fzra diminishes. May see a small chance this morning in the southern JRV, but otherwise expect precip to be light snow.

UPDATE Issued at 604 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Cold front will continue to push across the state today from northwest to southeast. Along this front has been some light snow, which will continue to push eastward through the day. Updated PoPs slightly to account for this light snow. Freezing drizzle reports have been limited this morning, although at least slight chances remain in the forecast. Given these limited reports, decided to let the Winter Weather Advisory for some central portions expire on time. There still could be pockets of freezing drizzle this morning, and perhaps some freezing rain in the southeast later this morning through this afternoon. This is represented in the current forecast, although confidence was not high enough for any new winter weather highlights at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Cold front on the back side of an inverted surface trough, combined with an upper level wave, will push across the state today. Lingering low level moisture, with extra lift from the cold front, will bring areas of light snow and freezing drizzle through today. More organized precipitation looks to be initially in the northwest this morning, then upon colliding of two airmasses in the southeast later today. As a result the northwest could have some light accumulating snow, while the southeast could have some light accumulating ice from freezing rain followed by light accumulating snow. Chances for impactful weather still remain low thus no additional Winter Weather Advisories were issued at this time. Early this morning there still remain Winter Weather Advisories in central portions for some lingering freezing drizzle. The mentioned cold front should limit this threat, or bring more light snow later this morning although will continue to monitor the latest trends for this current advisory. Breezy northwest winds will be found with the passage of this front today. Highs will be a mix of mild temperatures in the 30s and 40s west to the 20s and 30s east. Surface high then moves in tonight, and is forecast to bring clearing skies and dry conditions. The dryer air and steady westerly flow with this high could limit fog formation tonight. Look for low temperatures in the mid teens to mid 20s.

Northwest flow becoming zonal flow is then expected for this weekend. The result will be breezy to windy conditions, warming temperatures, and limited chances for precipitation. Saturday could see some near advisory westerly winds, with perhaps slightly higher westerly winds on Sunday. ECMWF EFI values also hinting perhaps advisory level winds on Sunday, especially in the west. High temperatures on Saturday will warm into the 40s and 50s, with highs on Sunday in the 50s and 60s. Lows Saturday night will be mild and in the 30s. NBM temperatures spreads are low for this weekend, although the NBM forecast may be on the cooler side of potential high temperatures. This may be especially true for Sunday if the stronger westerly flow sets in. If more mixing can occur, highs on Sunday could approach 70 degrees for some areas. With these warm, windy, and dry conditions there is still the potential for near critical fire weather concerns this weekend especially in the southwest. How low the RH drops and the status of the fuels remains the biggest area of uncertainty for these conditions. For now will continue to message these potential near critical conditions.

Trough pattern and an associated cold front could then return next week. Temperatures to start the week will cool from this pattern although could remain near seasonable values. These near normal temperatures could linger all week along with this trough pattern. This trough pattern could also return chances for precipitation, with the higher chances currently on Monday and Tuesday. NBM showing a 20 to 50% chance for an inch or more of snow during this time period, with chances for more impactful amounts low at this time. The caveat with this early week system is banded snow potential could bring some locally higher snow amounts. Current forecast then has some snow chances returning later in the week, although more uncertainty is had during this time period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings remain over a good portion of western and central ND to begin the 18Z TAF period. There is clearing over northwest into north central ND, but there is another blob of IFR ceilings dropping south from far southeast Saskatchewan into northwest ND attim. This area looks to miss KXWA, and thus KXWA may see VFR conditions through the TAF period. KMOT is currently under IFR ceilings but on the back edge and about to break out for a while before the clouds in Saskatchewan move in. May be a break here early to mid afternoon, but went with prevailing MVFR to IFR ceilings. KDIK, KBIS and KJMS will most likely see MVFR to IFR ceilings at least for a few hours, and possibly through the afternoon, especially KBIS and KJMS. Lower ceilings are forecast to clear late afternoon into this evening from west to east, and once clouds clear at a TAF site, then VFR conditions should remain through the rest of the TAF period. Breezy northwest surface flow this afternoon, diminishing this evening and shifting southwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.