textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium chances for a line of snow showers crossing the state from west to east tonight through Wednesday morning.

- Patchy fog central overnight through mid Wednesday morning.

- Near normal temperatures Wednesday. After a brief warmup on Thursday, much colder and below normal temperatures are expected this weekend.

- Very windy conditions are possible Thursday into Thursday night, with medium to high chances for rain and snow.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow this weekend south, with low chances north.

UPDATE

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Weak radar returns can be found across eastern Montana, producing isolated reports of light snow showers at the time of this mid night update. These showers are expected to move across northwestern and central North Dakota overnight through Wednesday morning, before exiting to the southeast by the early afternoon. While impacts are generally not expected, CAMs do advertise steep low level lapse rates and modest MUCAPE across portions of the central North Dakota in the late morning and afternoon. Where slight convective enhancement does occur, bursts of moderate snowfall are possible which could rapidly reduce visibilities for a brief period. Overall, a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation is expected. Otherwise, patchy fog is starting to develop over the far south central at this time, and is generally expected to expand across much of central North Dakota overnight. Patchy fog is anticipated to lift by the mid morning. Made some slight adjustments to the fog grids to reflect its earlier development in the southwest, but otherwise the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Only deviation from previous forecast for this update was to speed up the timing of snow shower chances across the state tonight through Wednesday morning, based on observed and modeled trends. There is also a low chance that patchy fog could develop across central parts of the state overnight in cloud-free, sheltered areas. Any fog that develops should dissipate with the arrival of the snow showers.

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Radar imagery and surface observations would imply that chances for light snow across far southern North Dakota have ended for the evening. Our attention now turns to a low amplitude mid level shortwave that is forecast to bring a north-south band of scattered snow showers across the state from west to east late this evening through Wednesday morning. Only a few tenths of an inch of snow at most are expected at this time, as it should be a very short duration snowfall at most locations (around an hour or two at most). But it could be a quick burst of snowfall with moderate to heavy rates as the forcing encounters a deep layer of steep lapse rates with perhaps even some buoyancy available from the base of the EML. Upstream satellite already presents a convective appearance to some of the cloud tops, though lingering effects of diurnal heating could still be playing a role. PoPs were increased to around 20 to 40 percent for this potential snowfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A broad shallow upper level trough was situated over the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains this afternoon. An impulse moving through the base of the trough ws producing some light precipitation over South Dakota and possibly into the far southern counties of North Dakota. Other than the small precipitation chances in the far south, it should be a quiet evening. Late tonight, an impulse moving through Montana moves into western ND then across central ND on Wednesday. Cams are in pretty good agreement bringing some small precipitation chances across the forecast area Wednesday with a little light snow in the morning across the west and afternoon rain/snow as the feature tracks through central ND. QPF with this feature is very light so at this time, little if any impacts are anticipated. However, it should be noted that there is a signal for some snow squalls as the features moves across central ND Wednesday afternoon. Currently, the low level moisture looks minimal and the moisture and forcing outrun the strongest instability. Something that we will pass along, but at this time we are looking a low probabilities for snow squalls. A brief heavier snow shower is possible though, mainly east of the Highway 83 corridor.

Our next system will be a clipper type system that moves across the area on Thursday. There is still uncertainty in the placement of the system, but it does look to be windy on Thursday, especially over western ND. The placement of the low will be a big factor in the intensity of the strongest winds, but at this time there is enough agreement to support a High Wind Watch over generally the western half of the state. A farther north track of the surface low would result in less precip in general, more rain, especially central and south and stronger winds across southern ND. A southern track would still yield strong winds, but not as intense. Precipitation amounts in the north would be higher, resulting in better chances for accumulating snows, and some blowing snow. Currently the operational NBM is depicting a probability of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 2 inches of around 40 to 60 percent ending 12Z Friday, along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. Probabilities taper to less than 20 percent around the Highway 200 corridor, and less than 10 percent along and south of the I-94 corridor. Forecast soundings indicate very strong winds aloft (around 70 knots or high) that could mix down to the surface. The southwest looks to be the favored location at this time. The latest ECMWF EFI has increased to an 80 percent or greater probability of an extreme event, generally south and west of the Missouri River with a shift of tails of 1-2, with the max just southwest of the state, over southeast Montana. Will certainly need to monitor as we get closer. Strong winds favored southwest and accumulating snows will be favored over the northeast portion of the forecast area. At this time the accumulations here would be below Advisory criteria, but as the clipper exits, strong winds may develop here later Thursday night, with impactful blowing and drifting snow possible.

Another system tracks across the forecast area this weekend. At this time it looks like there will be some wind with it, but not as strong as the Thursday system. There is also a lot of disagreement in the deterministic solutions. They're pretty much switched from the Thursday system. At this time the operational NBM is depicting a 40 to 60 percent chance of 4 or more inches in the 24 hour period ending 12Z Sunday, across pretty much the southern two thirds of the forecast area. Generally the Highway 200 Corridor and south. At this time there is too much uncertainty to get any more detailed than this. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low stratus and fog is expected to develop over much of central North Dakota overnight, with patchy ground fog already starting to develop in the southwest at the start of the TAF period. With this, MVFR visibilities are possible where fog develops, and MVFR to IFR ceilings are broadly expected at KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS through at least the morning. Fog should generally lift from northwest to southwest through the mid morning, while MVFR ceilings may linger through the early afternoon.

Upstream, MVFR ceilings are producing scattered snow showers in eastern Montana. These ceilings and showers are expected to move across northwest and central North Dakota overnight through the early afternoon, before exiting into southeastern North Dakota. Have introduced PROB30 groups for light snow, mist, 4SM visibility, and MVFR to IFR ceilings at all TAF sites as these showers pass through.

Light and variable winds through tonight will become westerly around 10-15 kts on Wednesday, with some higher afternoon gusts in southwest North Dakota. Winds will then diminish through the evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.