textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chances for light snow from the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley, and the southwest through tonight. Dry Friday and through the weekend.

- Patchy blowing snow through tonight.

- Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with hit and miss low precipitation chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Limited updates needed early this evening. Light snow continues to be found in the east, with limited impacts. Meanwhile there remains a slight chance for light snow in the southwest tonight, while dangerous wind chills could be found in the northwest. Overall just made minor adjustments to PoPs based on the latest observations and the general forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This afternoon, longwave troughing dominated the synoptic pattern across the CONUS, with embedded lows rotating through the base. This was leading to southerly flow aloft across the Dakotas, while surface high pressure was centered in southwest Saskatchewan. A modest pressure gradient continued to produce breezy northwesterly winds, and with air temperatures in the single digits above and below zero, wind chills have stayed in the teens to 20s below zero this afternoon. Some low clouds are lingering in our eastern tier of counties, along with some cirrus across the north and central, but areas along, south, and west of the Missouri River are getting plenty of sunshine this afternoon.

As one of the aforementioned embedded lows retrogrades back to the west this evening, the expectation is for cloud cover to expand back to the west and bring low chances for light snow, mainly from the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley. Any accumulations would be light. Additionally, a shortwave is projected to move north from western South Dakota and potentially clip southwest North Dakota, so we did add in some low POPs for this tonight.

Temperatures dropped lower than forecast this morning, with blended guidance likely not accounting enough for the multiple inches of fresh snowpack across the area. Due to this and a similar air mass in place for tonight, we did nudge tonight's low temperatures down a few degrees. Because of the expected cloud cover and not particularly favorable surface pressure pattern, we did not want to drop temperatures too far below the deterministic NBM, but opted for the 50th percentile. This produced a corridor of air temperatures of 5 to 15 degrees below zero across parts of the northwest and central, and 5 above to 5 below elsewhere across the forecast area. This dropped apparent temperatures enough to warrant a Cold Weather Advisory tonight for the northwest and parts of the north central, including the cities of Williston and Minot. Northwest winds will stay breezy through the night, especially in the James River Valley, which will contribute to the very cold wind chills.

Similar conditions are expected on Friday, with highs generally in the teens and mostly cloudy skies. We start to see changes approaching this weekend, as ensemble guidance is confident on upper ridging building over the Northern Rockies. A more notable temperature spread is forecast for the weekend, with below normal temperatures across the north and east while the southwest, closer to the influence of the ridge, begins to moderate and approaches average. Each night through the weekend, northern North Dakota will be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but will have to take each night as it comes.

As the ridge begins to move overhead, there is high confidence in a warming trend to start next work week, with more mild temperatures returning. However, beyond this we start to see a signal in ensemble members for the ridge to be flattened and return us to a northwest flow pattern. This would favor more clipper type systems moving through, with up and down temperatures as they impact the forecast area, but low predictability in when any of these systems would move through North Dakota.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will be found tonight, with some light snow in the east impacting the KJMS TAF. A steady northwest wind will also be found through tonight, perhaps bringing some patchy blowing snow. Most sites should return to VFR conditions on Friday, although some low VFR to perhaps MVFR ceilings could linger for a few sites. Lighter northwest winds will also be found on Friday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for NDZ001>003- 009>011.