textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near surface smoke today through Thursday.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms starting today, with the greatest chances for precipitation on Thursday (60 to 80 percent). These chances will continue into next week.

- Near average temperatures today, before cooling off into the 60s Thursday and Friday, then warming back up into the 70s through the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Smoke has continued to settle in across the area this morning, dropping many locations' visibilities to 2 to 4 miles. Weak radar returns continue across the northwest, while some more substantial showers and thunderstorms across eastern Montana continue to move east towards the border. Overall, not many changes needed with this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Early this morning, thunderstorms have developed just south of the border with South Dakota, with some weak radar returns entering into the northwest. The activity in the south should stay in South Dakota, though a storm may wander onto the border for a little bit, resulting in overall low chances for precipitation there. In the northwest, most of the showers are very high based above a rather dry environment, resulting in most of these likely not reaching the ground. A heavier shower may result in a few sprinkles though, owing to some more low chances for precipitation. Otherwise, most of the area is covered in near-surface smoke, with the largest visibility reductions across the north, generally ranging from 2 to 5 miles. In the south, visibilities are around 8 to 9 miles. This smoke is expected to stick around for a while, at least through Thursday morning. Aloft, flow is out of the northwest, with a weak shortwave approaching, bringing about some low chances (20 to 30 percent) for showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the west today. While there is some decent instability and shear just to the west of our border in Montana, the chances of a storm retaining its strength as it moves into our area is very low, and the SPC has pulled the Marginal Risk out of our area now. Highs today will be mostly in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday remains to be the wettest day of the forecast period, with our highest chances for showers across the west and central. A more substantial shortwave moving through the flow will bring showers to the area for much of the day and into the night, with parts of the southwest and south central possibly seeing QPF totals approaching half an inch. Totals go down as you go north, though most of the area is expected to at least see something, with the exception of the Turtle Mountains. While moisture and shear will be abundant, temperatures behind the system's cold front will dip quite a bit, with areas in the west possible seeing highs drop below 60 degrees. Most of the area won't get above 70 degrees, which will help limit the overall instability associated with this system. While some thunder may be possible in the far south, strong to severe storm development is unlikely at this time.

Temperatures remain cooler on Friday, as a secondary shortwave lingers across the northern half of the state, with highs staying largely in the 60s. Precipitation chances decrease substantially heading into the daytime hours, though some showers may linger behind the system. A weak ridge is expected to then build behind this wave Friday night into Saturday, with an embedded transient wave riding the top of the ridge, resulting in some medium chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely with this wave due to the timing. From Saturday onwards, flow aloft becomes mostly zonal, along with enhanced surface moisture returns, resulting in warming temperatures, near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, and increased (but still low) probabilities for strong to severe storm development, with the overall temperature being one of the main limiting factors. NBM spreads in temperature beyond this weekend still remain somewhat large, though overall, highs look to stabilize back into the 70s and lower 80s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Near surface smoke has reduced visibilities across the entire area, with IFR visibilities being reported in the north and west, including KMOT, KXWA, and KDIK. MVFR visibilities are present in the south central and James River Valley, impacting KBIS and KJMS. These visibility values could improve and decline as the day goes on as the smoke moves and settles across different locations. In general, slight improvement in visibility is likely towards the end of the TAF period, though smoke will remain across the entire area. Otherwise, low chances in showers are possible in the west, with breezy southeasterly winds expected in the southwest, with sustained speeds 15 to 20 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Winds will then decrease in speed towards the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.