textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will become very hot again over the weekend, with highs near 100 in western North Dakota on Saturday and central North Dakota on Sunday.

- It will be breezy to windy Saturday through Monday, with near- critical fire weather conditions expected across much of the western half of the state on Sunday and Monday.

- The first half of the upcoming work week should be much cooler, with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night through Monday. A few storms could be severe in central and eastern parts of the state.

UPDATE

Issued at 1004 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Quiet weather continues across the region. No updates are needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Surface high pressure continue to pass to the north while a warm front moves in from the west. The warm front is producing some lift causing cumulus clouds. No major updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Weak showers and thunderstorms continue to linger along a developing warm front in the west. Weak instability and modest shear along this boundary will linger at least slight chances through the night in these areas. The threat for severe weather is overall low given the elevated nature of these storms. The main threat could be gusty winds given DCAPE is over 1000 J/KG along this boundary. Otherwise, look for mainly dry conditions tonight with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Light winds will become southerly as well for tonight. Warm front moves through Saturday with a building ridge overhead. This will bring warming temperatures, yet limited instability. The result will be highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Dry conditions will limit the heat index values, although there could be some increased Heat Risk and Wet Bulb Global Temperature Risk. Thus will hold off on any heat products for Saturday. Developing surface low to the west will bring an increased southerly flow on Saturday. Afternoon humidity values in the teens and 20s will be found in the west, although the breezy winds on Saturday will be more central and east where afternoon humidity values are forecast in the 30s and 40s. Thus some increased fire weather concerns are possible for Saturday, although near critical fire weather conditions are currently not anticipated. HRRR Smoke also showing some wildfire smoke may return to the area and perhaps surface on Saturday. HRRR Smoke even showing some surface smoke possible across the west Saturday afternoon and evening. With the southerly flow at the surface there is some uncertainty on this smoke reaching the surface. Thus held off on adding it to the forecast at this time. Dry conditions look to continue for Saturday night, with mild lows in the 60s. Upper level ridge moves eastward Sunday with the thermal ridge pushing across the state as well. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s. Increased southerly flow could also bring slightly higher dewpoints, which will also increase heat index values. A heat advisory may be needed for Sunday if this trend continues. A wind advisory may also be needed for these stronger southerly winds, although ECMWF EFI values may indicate these winds peak just right around advisory level. These stronger winds combined with low RH values in the teens and 20s could bring some near critical to critical fire weather conditions across western and some central portions Sunday afternoon and evening. This may depend on timing of a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. This front could also bring some showers and thunderstorms, mainly Sunday night when instability and shear peaks. A low level jet may also help increase the threat for thunderstorms Sunday night. Surface capping and overall timing uncertainties of the mentioned front could be the limiting factors for the severe weather threat. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for central and eastern portions Sunday through Sunday night. If thunderstorms can develop, chances will linger through Sunday night with lows near 60 degrees.

Cold front continues to push through Monday, lingering the threat for thunderstorms and perhaps some severe weather. SPC has maintained a Day 4 outlooks for eastern ND on Monday. The severe weather threat looks similar to Sunday, although also looks to be in more eastern North Dakota. Otherwise look for cooler temperatures Monday with breezy north winds. Even with cooler temperatures, dry conditions behind the front combined with breezy winds could bring some near critical to critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon and evening. A post frontal cool, breezy, and mainly dry day is then forecast for Tuesday, with highs in the 70s and morning lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overall a warming trend is then forecast for mid to late next week, although a split in clusters showing there could be a spread in how much warming. It will overall depend if the ridge can build back into the area or if west to northwest flow remains. This pattern will also determine chances for precipitation, although currently a generally dry conditions are forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR and clear conditions will continue across the region. Winds will veer out of the south and southeast by tomorrow afternoon. There is a low chance of smoke and fog forming tomorrow morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.