textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above normal temperatures favored through the weekend. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the upper 30s northeast to lower 60s far southwest.

- Slight (20%) chance for light snow could return early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Only some minor changes to sky cover with the early evening update. Warm front and clearing of the low clouds is now pushing through eastern portions of central ND. Only some mid and high clouds over most of western and central ND this evening. Should be a very mild night with some lows in the western half of ND possibly remaining above freezing. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Currently a large upper level high is sitting over the West Coast and dominating the pattern west of the Mississippi river. At the surface, low clouds are still lingering in North Dakota, although most of the patchy fog is gone. With this cloud cover temperatures are still warming into the 30s with a warm southwest wind.

Thursday through Friday looks to be breezy, especially in the James River Valley from a cold front sweeping through off a passing clipper staying in Canada, this will also cool temperatures slightly. Well above normal temperatures then continue through next monday as the large upper level high continues through Saturday. Saturday afternoon then the ridge dies, leading to northwest flow. The very warm 850mb temperatures will continue through Monday leading to the warm surface temperatures staying.

Monday though the rest of the forecast that northwest flow could create some Alberta Clippers once again off the Northern (Canadian) Rockies. As of now, the NBM has slight (20%) chances for light snow mixing with rain at times. Timing looks like Monday night through Wednesday as a few other clipper systems could follow in line. Wednesday the shortwave could dig a little deeper and produce light snow in the southern half of the state instead of the north. Temperatures with the clippers will be closer to normal, especially in the north where the cooler air in the Clippers will be. The range looks to be in the upper 20s north to lower 40s southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all TAF sites, with the exception of low stratus remaining at KJMS early this evening. The low stratus should lift at KJMS by 01-02 UTC. A little breezy at times tonight (up to 15 to 25 knot at times), but very strong winds aloft will require a mention of LLWS at all TAF sites overnight and into early Thursday morning. Surface flow generally southwest to west to begin the TAF period, shifting northwest this evening and into the early overnight hours, then remaining northwest to west Thursday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.