textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy today into this evening. Then very windy Thursday through Friday.

- Well above average temperatures will generally continue through the middle of the week, with highs Wednesday more seasonable in the east. - Light rain/snow chances return late this afternoon/evening with higher chances Thursday evening through Friday morning. The highest chances (60 to 80 percent) are along and east of Highway 83.

UPDATE

Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overall limited changes need to the forecast at this time. Light rain continues in the southwest. A backdoor front is forecast to bring low clouds and some rain and snow showers from northeast to southwest later today through tonight. Made some minor changes to the PoPs associated with this front. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 855 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overall the forecast remains on track. Rain showers continue to be found across the southwest and may linger through much of the day. A more isolated to scattered round of rain and snow is still forecast this afternoon into this evening across central and eastern portions of the state. Overall made minor PoP updates based on current radar trends in the southwest.

UPDATE Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A few radar echoes are starting to appear on the Bowman radar, which is in line with morning expectations for potential rain in the southwest. These will likely expand in coverage over the next few hours. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The primary forecast challenges for this period are winds, light precipitation, and temperatures. First, gusty winds are expected today before diminishing from northwest to southeast this evening and through the night. Even stronger winds are then expected Thursday, through Thursday night, and into Friday morning. In addition to winds, multiple rounds of light precipitation are possible, including rain in the southwest this morning and early afternoon. Light snow, maybe with some rain mixed in late this afternoon and evening mainly in central ND. The next best potential for accumulating snow is then late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with the highest chances along and east of Highway 83.

In regard to winds today, surface low pressure will propagate from central Manitoba towards southern Ontario, or the northern Great Lakes Region. Along with strong high pressure over the western CONUS, this will tighten the pressure gradient helping to drive gusty northwesterly winds. However, there is no obvious strong CAA nor pressure rises during the day today. The best pressure rises pass through this evening mainly over north central and eastern ND. Without being during the best mixing hours and with a lack of strong CAA, feel winds will generally remain below advisory criteria. However, localized stronger gusts aren't entirely out of the question.

Very strong winds are then likely Thursday through Thursday night before gradually diminishing throughout the day Friday. There remains some uncertainty as to how these winds will play out. EFI values have increased since last night (though remain similar to yesterday afternoon) resulting in increasing confidence in solid advisory level winds, with the potential for high winds. However, limited deterministic guidance produces marginal pressure rises during the day Thursday. And as of now, the pressure bubble passing through Thursday night and Friday morning isn't terribly impressive and generally doesn't align with the best CAA. That said, deterministic runs are very limited, so will continue to trust ensemble guidance and raise wind gust messaging, including in the HWO, to 55 mph for Thursday through Friday morning.

In regard to precipitation chances, seemingly forced by the left exit region of a jetstreak, light rain is likely mainly in the southwest this morning and possibly into the afternoon. For the most part, total rain should be a couple hundredths or less. However, up to a tenth of an inch isn't out of the question in the far southwest. There could also be some light snow, possibly with rain mixed in early, late this afternoon and evening in central ND. Little to no accumulations are expected.

With the aforementioned windier system to finish out the workweek, snow chances remain possible mainly along and east of Highway 83 Thursday evening through Friday morning. Currently, not a lot of moisture is progged with this system, but it is the next best chance for accumulating snow. While total snow seems limited, there could be periods of significant visibility reduction while snow is falling due to the very strong winds presently forecast.

Finally, temperatures remain well above average through Thursday, though eastern ND will be closer to average Wednesday. Confidence in regard to temperatures Friday is fairly high with the return to more seasonable conditions. However, the remainder of the forecast period beyond that remains a crapshoot. A ridge over the west CONUS looks to amplify beyond what it currently is thus putting most of the region into northerly flow aloft. However, just how far west the eastern extent of the ridge is pushed will determine just how cool things become and the duration of any cooler temperatures. Nevertheless, NBM ensemble 25th/75th percentile spreads remain extremely large, especially for central ND where Bismarck's spread for a high on Saturday is from 8 to 37 degrees. Spreads further east and west are closer to 20 degrees, with eastern temperatures progged to be lower overall, and western (especially southwestern) warmer overall.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions becoming MVFR to IFR conditions are expected during the forecast period. VFR conditions will be found through today, with some light rain possible in the far southwest. This evening through tonight, a backdoor cold front will bring lower cloud ceilings and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. Confidence was not high enough to include precipitation mention. Confidence was high enough to include MVFR to IFR ceilings in most TAFs. Ceilings may then improve from west to east Wednesday, although could still see MVFR to IFR conditions through Wednesday morning. Breezy winds today will become light and variable late tonight into Wednesday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.