textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures through Saturday. Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s.

- Much colder with medium to high chances for rain late Saturday night through Monday. Snow could briefly mix with rain in western parts of the state late Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Widespread below freezing temperatures possible Monday night.

- A stronger system could bring windy and rainy conditions to the region mid to late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

High clouds have finally shifted off to the north and east, giving way to a mostly clear sky. This has allowed temperatures to plummet well below previous forecast lows in low-lying areas across western North Dakota. The forecast has been updated to better reflect current conditions and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Limited updates needed late this evening. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s in some areas could provide for some patchy fog tonight, mainly in central and northeastern portions. This is if high clouds can clear out and winds diminish enough for fog to form. Confidence is low at this point, although did add some patchy fog mention to a few central and northeastern sites. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Limited updates needed as dry and mild conditions remain. Abundant high clouds remain across the forecast area as well. Made some minor sky changes to account for these high clouds. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Upper level ridging continues across the region which has resulted in warmer temperatures across the state. Temperatures are currently warming into the 70s across the state with lower 80s possible across the southwest. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to drop down around the upper 40s to 50s. Some model guidance was hinting at low stratus forming across the eastern half of the state moving up into the James River Valley tonight, however model guidance has backed off on this solution at this time.

Upper level ridging will break down this week as a trough deepens across western CONUS. This will bring forth southwest flow across the region and a pattern shift. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm in to the 70s and 80s in the southeast, however the northwest will warm into the mid 60s as a cold front move through the region. There could be some compressional warming ahead of the front so mid 80s are not off the table. The cold front will bring some breezy conditions across the state as the front moves through the region. Moving into Sunday, there are chances for rain across the west and portions of the central half of the state. There will likely be a window Sunday morning into the afternoon where rain chances will remain lower before another wave moves through the region. The upper level wave will move through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. The highest QPF remains across the western half of the state as there are decent chances for half an inch of rain. Temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 40s to 50s across the region Monday and Tuesday with a very low chance of snow mixing in the west Monday morning. Overcast skies could keep temperatures from tanking Tuesday morning however widespread freezing temperatures are possible across the northwest.

After this wave moves through the region Ensemble guidances has split flow regime with the possibility of the southern stream moving into the area. The GEFs solutions hints at the Northern stream bringing in stronger winds later next week. We will continue to monitor this, check back for the latest forecast updates.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some patchy fog could develop over central North Dakota early Saturday morning. Overnight winds will primarily be southerly around 5-10 kts, with low level wind shear at KJMS and surrounding areas. A cold front will move across the area from west to east early Saturday morning through the late afternoon. Ahead of the front, winds will remain south to southwest around 10-15 kts. Behind the front, winds will turn to the northwest around 10-15 kts. Higher afternoon gusts are possible on either side of the front. Winds then become more northerly Saturday evening at around 10-15 kts. A few rain showers could begin entering western North Dakota by the end of the forecast period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.