textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain over western and central North Dakota will continue to gradually move to the east-northeast late this afternoon into tonight. - Mainly dry Saturday into early Sunday, with rain chances returning west to east late Sunday. A near daily low to medium (20 to 60 percent) chance of rain then expected for the work week.

- Below average temperatures this weekend, a brief warming period Monday, then below average again through mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current surface analysis places inverted trough over the western Dakotas, with high over eastern Manitoba into Ontario. Upper level analysis places high over the southern Mississippi Valley with ridge through the Midwest. To the west, trough noted over the west coast resulting in southwest flow over the Northern Plains. Over our area, broad area of rainfall continues over much of central and western North Dakota.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, broad area of rain previously mentioned will continue to gradually track towards the east-northeast. Towards the backside where rain had tapered off over southwest North Dakota, CAMs have been consistently showing some convection developing, some of which is showing up on radar over western South Dakota. Over our area, this is right in line with a narrow instability corridor advertised on the RAP of CAPE values pushing around 1500 J/Kg. So, cant rule out a stronger cell producing some small hail over this area, but believe the severe threat should remain limited.

As we go through the night precipitation will gradually exit the area. With the low level moisture in place there was some concern for fog developing over the west, but believe this should be limited by the expected north-northwesterly winds, but do expect low ceilings to develop and possibly a few patches of fog particularly in higher terrain.

Quieter weather expected over the area on Saturday as ridge starts to rebuild over the Rockies, though temperatures will remain on the cooler side of average. Flow remains west/northwesterly on Sunday, but a wave moving through the flow may produce some showers/storms late Sunday into the overnight hours.

Temperatures warm to near average for Monday before a strong short wave and affiliated cold front push into the area, which will bring cooler temperatures and medium chances (about 40 to 60 percent) for precipitation on Tuesday. Remainder of the work week looks to remain a bit active with occasional low chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will track east-northeastward across western and central North Dakota through tonight. With the showers and thunderstorms expect widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. Low ceilings will persist overnight into Saturday morning over most locations before clearing.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.