textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures through the workweek that are cooler northeast to warmer southwest. A brief cooldown to near-average temperatures is then favored for Saturday, followed by a return to above average temperatures to start next week.

- Mostly dry for the rest of the week, with the next best chance for precipitation being a 20 percent chance of snow mainly in eastern North Dakota Friday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 859 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

RAP-based surface analysis shows a weak low centered in north central Montana, with areas of light radar returns surrounding the southern extent. As the previous shift noted, forecast soundings are not particularly supportive of any precipitation making it to the ground, but will keep an eye on upstream observations in case we start seeing ground truth of precipitation in Montana. Blended in latest guidance but no big changes with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 532 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

The forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Mostly quiet weather with above average temperatures is in the forecast to finish out the workweek. Today should be the warmest overall day this week with highs ranging from the low 30s in northeastern ND to the low 50s in the southwest. Based on temperatures overperforming recently, and with good westerly mixing winds progged at the surface, continued with the prior shift in using NBM75 for highs today. The one limiting factor could be mid to high clouds that are currently present over the forecast area. However, models and upstream satellite imagery suggest clouds will decrease in coverage enough to where they shouldn't hinder highs much, if at all.

For the remainder of the week, a cooling trend is on tap as polar surface high pressure propagates into southern Canada. As a result, the current NBM forecast brings the return of near- average highs by Saturday. For next week, models are in fairly good agreement in the return of west coast ridging and above average temperatures. Once again, the pattern will favor cooler temperatures northeast versus much warmer temperatures southwest.

Other than a few possible exceptions, mostly dry conditions are expected through the period. For tonight, a couple hi-res models bring light returns through southern parts of the state. However, model forecast soundings maintain a dry layer near the surface. Therefore, depending on timing, suspect nothing more than sprinkles or a few flurries should anything fall. As a result, left the forecast dry at this time. For Thursday night, a weak shortwave west of a trough lifting up through the midwest could bring some light snow to the far southwest. The NBM put 20 PoPs mainly in Bowman County, which seems adequate for now.

For Friday, models are coming into agreement with one another that a trough will dig into Minnesota as it transforms into a cut-off low while propagating through the Great Lakes Region. Other than the potential for gusty winds on Friday and maybe some light snow in the east Friday night, impacts look minimal for the state at this time. As flow aloft becomes northwesterly once again, multiple shortwaves could lead to additional precipitation chances towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility, along with westerly winds of 10 to 20 kts, are expected for today. The strongest of these winds will be in the northwest where gusts up to 30 kts are possible. LLWS is expected to develop in the northwest later this afternoon and evening, with pockets in central ND at times this evening as well.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.