textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures will generally continue through the middle of the week, though highs Wednesday will be more seasonable in the east. - Light snow chances return Tuesday evening with higher chances mainly Thursday through Friday morning. The highest chances (60 to 70 percent) are currently Thursday night along and east of Highway 83.

- Becoming windy later this morning or early afternoon in the west before expanding across the state tonight into Tuesday. Then likely very windy Thursday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

The forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Highly amplified west CONUS ridge resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over the region remains in place through Thursday. This will generally result in well above average temperatures through the middle of the week, though eastern ND may be more seasonable on Wednesday. After which, a series of troughs digging into the eastern CONUS may push much of the eastern extent of the ridge further west, and thus the forecast area into the colder side. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty in exactly how this will play out as represented by massive NBM 25th/75th percentile temperature spreads from Saturday, through the weekend, and into next week. Should the ridge wind up a bit further east, then more of the state will wind up warmer versus cooler. However, if it pushes further west, then more of the state will wind up cooler versus warmer. Of course, also impacting exact values and the duration of any cooler spell will be the evolution of any surface systems.

For today, went along with western neighbors and lowered dewpoints, and thus RH values, in western ND. This will match things up a little better with how yesterday played out. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions today through tonight. For Tuesday morning, CAMs bring fairly widespread composite reflectivities through parts of the state, especially the southwest. However, model forecast soundings suggest a fair amount of dry air to overcome and therefore have maintained a mostly dry forecast. Did add mentionable PoPs along the ND/SD border for locations along and west of the Missouri River. Even if anything does occur, with how warm temperatures are expected to be, it should be all rain. The NBM produces higher precipitation chances, mostly in the form of snow (perhaps with some mixed precipitation earlier on), towards the end of the week when one of the aforementioned troughs pushes the ridge further west. The highest chances (60 to 70 percent) are currently along and east of Highway 83 Thursday evening/night.

In addition to precipitation chances and warm temperatures this week, winds are the other story. Initially, breezy winds should develop in western ND later this morning or early afternoon before expanding across the state tonight and becoming windy on Tuesday. These winds should then diminish from west to east Tuesday night. With a general lack of strong pressure rises and CAA through the day Tuesday, winds seem less likely to overperform the current NBM forecast. The biggest exception seems potentially in eastern ND where there could be a CAA push along with moderate pressure rises Tuesday evening. However, by then the gradient may be loosening anyways.

Another round of windy conditions is then expected Thursday through Friday. Models aren't completely in agreement yet, but surface low pressure should slide somewhere across south central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region or else east into southeastern Canada. Most deterministic models then bring a strong cold front through sometime Thursday through Thursday night. The current NBM forecasts solid advisory level winds Thursday through Friday morning for most of western through central ND, including the James River Valley. This is backed up by the latest EFI which generally maintains values of .8 to .9 with limited shift of tails. This indicates very strong winds are likely, but also that they are currently not favored to be anything extraordinary. Nevertheless, will need to keep an eye on how things evolve over the next few days as EFI values have increased rapidly on occasion from one run to the next.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Generally light westerly winds this morning will increase in western ND later this morning. By the afternoon, sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts, with gusts around 30 kts, are expected across the west. These gusty winds will expand across most of the state this evening through tonight. LLWS is expected to develop across most of western and central ND, including the James River Valley, later today through tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.