textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow may linger across western and central portions this morning, while dangerous wind chills are found across north central portions.

- A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow expected across western and some central portions later tonight through Saturday, with mainly snow across eastern portions.

- Windy southerly becoming northwesterly winds to be found this weekend, perhaps bringing some areas of blowing snow.

- Below average temperatures today, then near to above average for the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Little to no changes needed this morning. The latest observations were blended into the short term forecast. Today will be the last well below normal temperatures day. We will let the Cold Weather Advisory expire at 10 AM.

UPDATE Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Limited changes needed this morning. Low clouds continue to produce flurries and light snow across western and central portions. Clearing skies in the east are bringing below zero temperatures and dangerous wind chills, especially in the north central. Overall the forecast remains on track with minimal updates made at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Surface high pushing into the region from Canada will push an arctic front westward today into a deformation zone out west. As it does so low clouds and light snow may be found for central and western areas this morning, while skies clear and colder temperatures move in across the east. Areas in the north central that do clear are still expected to see dangerous wind chills this morning, thus left the Cold Weather Advisory as is. Clearing skies move westward through the day, although how far west may be an area of uncertainty today. Perhaps some low clouds linger through the day in western North Dakota. Current forecast is dry this afternoon, although any lingering low clouds could cause for some flurries today. Look for colder highs today with this arctic push, with single digits above and below zero central and east to the teens to lower 20s west. Tonight, this arctic front stalls then is lifted back east as a warm front from an clipper system. Clouds will go on the increase as a result, although precipitation may delay until later tonight given the dry air in place from the mentioned arctic high. Increased southerly flow will also be found tonight as a result of this clipper system. Perhaps some near Cold Weather Advisory wind chills are possible in the northeast as a result. Lows tonight will be in the single digits above and below zero, although could warm later in the night.

Warm front and clipper system then move across the state from west to east Saturday. A mix of precipitation is expected as a result. Western and some central portions look to start out as snow and freezing rain early Saturday morning through the morning and into the afternoon. Eastern portions look to remain all snow given cold air in place, with some isolated pockets of freezing rain. There could even be some rain on the backside of this system across the west Saturday afternoon. HREF FRAM showing high confidence in freezing rain up to a tenth of an inch in western and some central portions mainly Saturday morning perhaps into Saturday afternoon. Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory as a result of this increased confidence for western and some central portions that have higher confidence in freezing rain and ice accumulations. Decided to keep this advisory simple with one timing block, although western portions may start and end earlier compared to central portions. The rest of the CWA sees about an inch of snow with isolated freezing rain, although the NBM showing about 10 to 40% chance for over 2 inches for some eastern portions of the state. As mentioned, dry air in place may delay snow timing in the east as well perhaps limited snow accumulations. Gusty winds Saturday could bring areas of blowing snow to these areas. Confidence was not high enough for a winter product at this time, although will need to be monitored. ECMWF EFI still fairly low on the strong wind potential for Saturday, with HREF means showing similar trends. Thus no Wind Advisory has been issued, and wind gusts 35 to 40 mph are currently expected. Otherwise behind this warm front will be warmer temperatures for Saturday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Light snow may linger on the backside of the low Saturday night, with gusty winds perhaps bringing some patchy blowing snow. More milder lows in the mid teens to mid 20s can be expected. Northwest flow, breezy in the east, then lingers through Sunday. Mild high temperatures in the 20s to 30s could linger. NBM currently has a dry forecast, although lingering moisture in this northwest flow could bring a few flurries or brief light snow under cloudy skies on Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies may then linger through Sunday night, although ridging aloft should keep conditions may dry. Look for lows in the single digits east to the lower 20s west.

Most clusters show a mild start to February next week as an amplified ridge across the west brings mild pacific air in northwest flow. Most of the week looks to see highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s, with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s. Depending how this ridge sets up there could be weak waves in this northwest flow at times brining at least some slight chances for snow and possibly some rain in the southwest. NBM currently has these chances Monday into Tuesday, and perhaps later in the week. Interesting to note a transient ridge may also provide a slightly warmer day on Thursday as indicated in the limited spreads in the NBM. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 30s to mid 40s on Thursday as a result. Some breezy winds may be found in this northwest flow pattern next week, although the signal for strong winds is currently not showing up in the ECMWF EFI values.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Clouds and a few light snow showers will bring MVFR to IFR ceilings across western and some central portions this morning. Eastern sites should see clearing skies and mainly VFR conditions. Clearing conditions should push into central portions this afternoon, further expanding VFR conditions. Western sites could see lingering MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings through the day, including KXWA to KDIK. Some snow flurries may be found at times as well under these lower clouds. Clouds increase from west to east tonight, with MVFR ceilings perhaps returning to most western and central sites, remaining VFR in the east. Chances for a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow may also start to develop across the west late in the period. A breezy southerly wind looks to develop today across most sites and continue through tonight. Some low level wind shear is possible tonight as a result of these breezy winds.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Saturday for NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034- 040>045. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NDZ003>005-012-013.