textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy with low chances for snow through this afternoon. Another chance (30 percent) for mainly snow across the south on Wednesday.

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through Friday, then are favored to trend cooler this weekend.

- Low to medium potential for accumulating snow across the south this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

This afternoon, the synoptic pattern was dominated by shallow cyclonic flow aloft across the Northern Plains, in between broad troughing off the eastern CONUS and low amplitude ridging over the western US. A shallow surface high was centered in southeast Saskatchewan, with a cold front that moved through this morning south of the ND/SD state line. Breezy northwest winds have been persistent through the day due to the surface pressure gradient, but will diminish this evening as the surface high edges into the forecast area. Behind the front, widespread low stratus has expanded south and covers all but the southwest corner of the state. An embedded impulse stacked with a jet streak is producing an area of light snow across northern North Dakota, which is progged to drop south through this afternoon. Any additional accumulation would be very light, although we are seeing some reduced visibility in areas under the strongest radar returns moving through the McHenry and Pierce County areas.

Snow and wind will taper off tonight, with cloud cover expected to partially clear out as well. Lows will range from around 5 below in the Turtle Mountains are to the upper teens southwest. On Wednesday, a shortwave is projected to slide through the region, although the bulk of energy is expected to stay southwest of the forecast area. We are carrying a general 20 to 40 percent chance of light snow across the southern half of the forecast area through the day Wednesday, with only a few tenths of snow accumulation expected along the South Dakota border. This is a trend down from the previous forecast update, as high-resolution guidance has shifted snow to the south. There is also a non-zero chance for some light snow in the Turtle Mountains area just based on the latest CAMs, but keeping a dry forecast in this area for now. Highs on Wednesday will range from the 20s north central and east to the lower 40s southwest.

Broadly cyclonic flow continues to end the work week, although there is high confidence we end up on the warm side of the baroclinic zone, with temperatures peaking on Thursday in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Ensemble guidance is then coming into agreement on a more potent shortwave and weather system moving through the Canadian Prairies to start the weekend, dragging a cold front behind it that will drop temperatures Friday night into Saturday, and bring strong winds as well. There is also a modest signal for a secondary wave to move through the region, with the highest blended POPs in the southwest, around 60 percent. The 13Z NBM 5.0 probabilities gives general low to medium potential for accumulating snow for areas along, south, and west of the Missouri River, with a 50 percent chance of at least 2 inches of snow in the far southwest.

Temperatures cool down significantly on Saturday after the system moves through, with highs generally in the teens. For next week, NBM temperature percentiles favor a warming trend, although spread gets quite large by the middle of the week as ensemble guidance deviates significantly on how the synoptic pattern might look, so low confidence on how the weather might look next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Widespread MVFR with pockets of IFR ceilings continue to expand across the state, and are expected to impact all terminals into at least this evening. Breezy northwest winds will continue through today, diminishing this evening and becoming light and southerly overnight. There is low confidence in how long MVFR ceilings will persist through the TAF period, and we cannot rule out some flurries this afternoon and evening, although not expecting this to be enough to reduce visibility. Additional low ceilings and snow chances return to the southwest late in the TAF period, with PROB30 included at KDIK.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.