textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to high chances for rain across western and central North Dakota tonight into Friday, especially south of I94 and north of Highway 2. High chances for rain continue in the west through much of the weekend.

- Seasonable temperatures through early next week, with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.

- Patchy fog may develop again in western North Dakota tonight into Friday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Light rain showers have started to move into North Dakota from South Dakota, the PoPs were adjusted from the slower NBM timing to reflect this. Another area of PoPs that had to be added was in the northwest, where a line of convective showers have formed near Highway 2. The rest of the forecast for the night remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For this afternoon through tonight, lowly amplified ridge will slide across the state bringing WAA and increased moisture aloft across the CWA. Simultaneously, surface low will continue to organize over Colorado, while high pressure over southern Manitoba propagates eastwards into western Ontario. This will result in increasing sky cover at the mid/upper levels this afternoon and evening before another round of low-level stratus advects in from the south tonight. Rain is possible tonight with the highest chances south of I94 and also north of Highway 2. Low chances remain the forecast elsewhere. A few rumbles of thunder are possible in the north, though should be limited in areal coverage overall.

Beyond tonight, high pressure over Ontario moves off to the east, though is quickly reinforced by another blocking high. As a result, precipitation chances and rain totals continue backing off for most of the area Friday through this weekend. That said, high chances remain in far western North Dakota Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Forecast rain totals are generally between a tenth and quarter inch with locally higher amounts possible. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast to start the next workweek with low chances returning during the middle of the week.

With a few exceptions, temperatures are generally forecast to remain seasonable over the next week with highs mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s, and lows mostly in the mid 40s to low 50s. See weather.gov/bis for the exact temperature forecast at your location. Otherwise, a few models indicate that relatively brief, patchy dense fog could return tonight mainly in western North Dakota. A southeasterly wind component and dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s support this notion. However, said winds remaining breezy and a potential rain producing stratus deck already in place could result in a failure for fog to develop at all, or at least result in limited visibility reductions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR this evening before lowering to MVFR or lower as rain showers with lower CIGs move into the area overnight. The west will continue to gust near 25kts this evening before calming near 10kts late in the night. Chances for rain showers through the period, covered with PROB30s for now as confidence in location is still lower. There are more chances for fog again tonight with 800 foot CIGS, mainly south and west of the Missouri River through the morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.