textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible for parts of the area on Monday.

- Colder Monday and Tuesday followed by a gradual warm-up through the rest of the week.

- Low to medium chances for showers tonight and possibly into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

For late evening update, have added rain chances for later tonight when a secondary line of precipitation is expected to move from north to south through the area per latest CAM guidance. Have also blanketed much of the area with low precipitation chances on Monday as we remain in cyclonic flow aloft.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

For early evening update main change was to add precipitation chances over our northwest where some light shower activity is starting to drop in along the frontal boundary that is settling in over our north. Remainder of forecast continues to be in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to prevail through this week. At the surface, low pressure will pass from northwest to southeast across southern Manitoba and Ontario today through tonight. This low is producing strong gradient winds, enhanced by good mixing and a downsloping westerly component, that will continue through the day today with gusts up to 45 mph. A cold frontal boundary off the low will slide through the state tonight bringing moister air, cooler temperatures, and maintaining breezy to windy conditions out of the northwest through the overnight hours. Low precipitation chances are also expected, although any measurable precipitation is favored to remain mostly confined to the Turtle Mountains area and into northeastern North Dakota.

Windy conditions are expected again Monday, although temperatures behind the frontal boundary will be below average, and remain so through Wednesday. This translates to highs mostly in the 40s to mid 50s with the coolest day Tuesday, and lows mostly in the 20s to around 30. Drier air bringing dewpoints back into the 20s will also filter into the state Monday, though a few isolated hit or miss showers are still possible. Dewpoints will remain mostly in the teens and 20s through most of the workweek. For Tuesday, influence from aforementioned surface low will wane, yet decent mixing could still allow for breezy conditions. Winds are then expected to become light for the latter half of the week.

As mentioned, the forecast area will remain under northwesterly flow aloft through the remainder of the week. However, a west CONUS ridge will gradually slide eastward during the latter half of the week. This will help enable a gradual warming trend. By Thursday, current forecast highs are near average with slightly above average temperatures currently forecast Friday through the weekend. Lows are also favored to remain above freezing Thursday night through the weekend. Confidence in the temperature forecast overall is reasonably high with NBM 25th/75th percentile spreads generally less than 10 degrees.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest tonight as a cold front drops through the area, and will remain gusty through Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 950 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Behind the front, much cooler high temperatures on Monday will allow relative humidity values to remain higher during the afternoon compared to today despite dewpoints in the 20s. A few isolated showers are possible Monday as well. However, another day of gusty winds may result in near critical fire weather conditions across the entire forecast area regardless. Winds will then drop off rapidly Monday night, though will become breezy again on Tuesday. Light winds, dewpoints mostly in the teens to 20s, and mostly dry conditions are then expected for the latter half of the workweek.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.