textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry today, with highs this afternoon from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

- Wide range in temperatures from north to south Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state.

- Periods of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow.

- Breezy Thursday through Thursday night, windy Friday.

- Well below average temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a warm-up into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Quiet and mild weather continues for today with highs this afternoon mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Otherwise, upper level low that is currently over British Columbia will slide east across southern Canada through Friday. For tonight, WAA off associated southwesterly flow aloft may help produce some light rain mainly in the northwest and in the far north central. Later in the night and into Thursday morning, a wintry mix, including light freezing rain, is possible mainly near the International border.

A cold surface frontal boundary associated with aforementioned upper low will begin passing through the state from north to south Thursday. This will result in three primary things. First, breezy northerly winds. Second, a large difference in high temperatures with areas along the International Border much colder than those near the ND/SD border (exactly how far south the largest gradient sets up is always difficult to forecast). And third, additional precipitation chances initially starting in the west Thursday afternoon, then passing from west to east across the state Thursday evening through Friday morning. Initially, this precipitation should start mostly as rain in the afternoon before transitioning mostly to snow in the evening and overnight hours. Overall, snow totals should remain light with high probabilities of at least a dusting in all but northwestern North Dakota. NBM probabilities of at least an inch are around 20 to 40 percent from south central into northeastern North Dakota, though a band of heavier snow setting up isn't out of the question. All in all, expecting up to an inch of snow with localized higher amounts possible.

Once this system moves out, expect mostly dry conditions through early next week. After which, there are indications of a more active pattern towards the middle of next week. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be well below average with highs in the 30s and 40s, though more in the 30s on Friday and more in the 40s on Saturday. Lows, on the other hands, will range be mostly in the 20s on Thursday and Saturday night, and even cooler and in the upper teens to low 20s Friday night. A warming trend is then on tap to start next week with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s by Monday, and lows remaining above freezing through midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are currently present across the state. Light rain will likely encroach into northwestern North Dakota this evening, with a 50 percent chance that KXWA will be impacted (covered using a PROB30 for now). KMOT could also see some light rain, though probabilities are pretty low at the moment. Precipitation may then pass across the state tonight and into Thursday morning near the International border. A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow are all possible, though this wintry mix is not favored to impact any terminals. A cold front will drop from north to south across the state Thursday resulting in breezy conditions. A few hours of LLWS is possible ahead of the frontal boundary before winds switch to a westerly and then northwesterly direction, though confidence is only high enough to include in the KBIS TAF for now.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.