textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms possible today, severe weather is not expected.

- Precipitation chances return late Sunday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

- High temperatures in the 80s today, upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday. Modest cooling trend then develops through mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 406 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Current surface analysis places low over the northern plains into the Midwest, with high over the southeastern CONUS. Upper level analysis places low off the British Columbia coast, with flat high over the southeastern CONUS into the southern plains. Modest short wave sliding through our area has lead to showers and a few thunderstorms over western North Dakota into northwest South Dakota, though coverage has notably decreased over the past few hours.

For today, the next modest short wave moves through this afternoon brining a slight chance (20 percent) of thunderstorms through the afternoon, with chances ending from west to east this evening as modest ridging develops. Latest guidance shows atmosphere will be moderately unstable with CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg, but deep layer shear will be modest, with 0-6km values around 20 to 30 kts. So, can't rule up a stronger storm briefly pulsing up, but holding that strength will be problematic.

Quiet weather continues through the night and Sunday morning. By later afternoon and into the evening, modest ridge flattens as a short wave pushes through bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Guidance keeps the highest CAPE values of around 1500-2000 J/Kg over northern parts of the area with around 40kts of deep layer shear. Therefore, SPC has noted a marginal (1 out of 5) severe threat over this area. Temperatures will also be notably warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

For the upcoming week we remain in a quasi-zonal flow pattern with high to our south. A variety of disturbances moving through will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through much of the period. Temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend through mid-week, then remaining near to above average.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Ample low level moisture over the area will bring areas of MVFR to localized IFR ceilings early this morning to parts of central and northwest North Dakota. There also will be some patchy fog reducing visibility. Conditions improve to VFR through the morning into Saturday afternoon.

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight, with a break by late Saturday morning. Then isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Saturday afternoon over central and parts of western North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.