textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm to above average through the first half of this week.

- A strong low pressure system could bring mixed precipitation, accumulating snow, and strong winds Wednesday into Thursday.

- A trend back to cooler temperatures is expected for the latter half of the week. However, both highs and lows may vary greatly from northeast (cooler) to southwest (warmer).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will gradually become westerly and light during the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Webcams and observations are continuing to show little in the way of blowing snow, though localized drifting snow remains possible this afternoon. For tonight, warmer air at the surface will continue filtering in resulting in low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s for most of the forecast area, although cooler temperatures in the single digits above zero are likely in eastern parts of the state.

Northwesterly flow aloft, along with multiple embedded disturbances, is expected to prevail through most of the workweek. The first clipper is sometime Monday night through Tuesday as it slides across southern Canada. Deterministic models, backed by the NBM ensemble, suggest this will be mostly dry for the forecast area with precipitation remaining mostly in Canada. However, gusty winds are likely especially in the northwest and north central with the strongest winds currently forecast over Lake Sakakawea and along the downslope of the Missouri Coteau.

A second, and likely stronger, clipper may impact the area during the middle of the workweek with Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the most favored timing. With highs forecast from the mid 30s to mid 40s, any precipitation during the afternoon will likely be in the form of rain, though a little snow could mix in as well. While limited model soundings continue to favor a rain to snow changeover during the evening and overnight hours for most areas, pockets of freezing rain are possible as well, especially along the peripheries. These details will become more obvious as the system approaches and more higher res model data is ingested. Of note with this clipper is a continued enhanced EFI wind gust signal of .9 for much of the state, and .95 for parts of the far southwest. This suggests a higher probability of a higher impact wind event. Should this coincide with any new snowfall, which seems to be the favored solution to at least some extent, then significantly reduced visibility at times in some locations is not out of the question.

There are then hints of a third system to finish out the week, although uncertainty remains much higher in overall development, so will continue to monitor for now. Otherwise, temperatures will become above average across the forecast area to start the workweek. The warmest day is progged to be Tuesday with highs currently forecast to reach the 40s across most of the state. For the latter half of the week, the NBM produces a roller coaster of cooler, warmer, and cooler again temperatures. However, due to northwest flow aloft, the all so frequent pattern of cooler temperatures northeast to warmer temperatures southwest is expected to persist most days and nights.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. Localized gusty southerly winds could lead to pockets of blowing snow this afternoon. However, most blowing snow should be more in the form of drifting (shallow) snow, therefore visibility should generally remain in excess of 6SM. Any stronger wind gusts are expected to diminish as they begin transitioning to a westerly component by late afternoon or early evening. Pockets of LLWS are possible through this evening, mainly in central ND early this afternoon, then redeveloping in parts of western through central ND this evening. Any lingering pockets should diminish by early Monday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.