textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to high chances for light accumulating snow across southern North Dakota Monday through Monday night.

- Much cooler to start the work week, followed by a slight warm up through the middle of the week.

- Warm and windy conditions return on Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures and medium chances for accumulating snow for the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A few light rain and snow showers may be found tonight behind a passing cold front. Updated PoPs based on current radar trends which is showing some light returns in the northwest and some central portions. These showers are expected to have minimal impacts and overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

At 1030 PM CDT, the cold front was located from around Hettinger to Grand Forks. Radar shows light returns from around Minot to Harvey to Devils Lake, as well as back in northeast Montana. But it appears that very little, if any precipitation is reaching the ground at this time. Current conditions and trends for all weather elements were blended into the forecast for this update. There have been pockets of stronger winds with frontal passage, but the highest gusts of around 40 to 50 mph have been short-lived and isolated.

UPDATE Issued at 737 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

The Wind Advisory was allowed to expire on time, although a few occasional gusts over 45 mph could still be observed this evening. At 7 PM CDT, the cold front was approaching Highway 2. An area of light rain showers was also moving through north central North Dakota at the time of this writing. This batch of rain should move out before temperatures fall enough for snow to mix in, but low chances for both rain and snow remain in the forecast through this evening, retreating into west central North Dakota overnight. Speaking of west central North Dakota, surface observations, webcams, and a ground truth report from a cooperative observer all indicate blowing dust reducing visibility to around 3 to 5 miles from around Sidney, MT to Watford City to Killdeer and surrounding areas. A mention of blowing dust was added to the forecast through 9 PM CDT, with forecast confidence in its evolution low beyond then.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

This afternoon, cyclonic flow aloft was present over the Northern Plains, with a surface low analyzed in southeast Saskatchewan. As this low has been deepening through the day, a modest surface pressure gradient and daytime mixing has led to strong westerly winds across western and parts of central North Dakota, where a Wind Advisory is in effect through mid-evening for winds around 30 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. Some scattered mid to high-level clouds are present across the forecast area, although radar returns have never quite materialized through the daytime hours today, so we have cut back on POPs this afternoon. We continue to message near-critical fire weather concerns for areas south and west of the Missouri River, especially the far southwest corner of the state where minimum relative humidity is forecast to drop into the lower 20 percent range, overlapping with the strong west winds. Dickinson (62 degrees in 1903) and Bismarck (64 degrees in 2021) have already broken record highs for today, with max temperatures today ranging from the mid 40s in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 70s far south.

We are starting to see some radar echoes in the southern Canadian Prairies along a cold front that will be dropping south through the forecast area later this afternoon and evening, bringing low to medium chances for rain and snow focused in northern North Dakota, along with northwesterly winds that will decrease behind the front. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s.

Precipitation chances increase Monday morning starting in southwest North Dakota, spreading northeast through the day as an upper shortwave tracks over today's cold front that is progged to stall over the ND/SD border. Ensemble cluster analysis is in surprisingly good agreement on the placement of an east-west oriented midlevel frontogenesis band in southern North Dakota. This, combined with favorable dynamics from a 250mb jet streak, indicates there is some potential for banded enhancements of precipitation. However, some forecast elements are not too favorable for higher snow totals, like temperatures near freezing and forecast soundings showing a shallow DGZ aloft that would favor snow ratios near 10:1. Recent high-res CAMs runs favor at least a partial transition to rain as the dominant p-type for the far southwest and south central Monday afternoon. The system overall has trended down a bit over the last few forecast runs, with the latest NBM 5.0 QPF probabilities showing a low chance (less than 25 percent) of exceeding 0.25" of liquid. These probabilities also visually show the potential banding a bit better, while the operational NBM probabilities are higher and more expansive, which doesn't quite fit the setup. With the expected normal snow ratios and p-type concerns this indicates low probabilities of reaching advisory level criteria snow, and we are advertising generally an inch or two of snow accumulations from this wave for the I-94 corridor and south.

Snow chances taper off Monday evening, although a low-amplitude trough passing through on Tuesday will bring a return of low snow chances to the area. Upper ridging then begins to move in for the back half of the work week, with near normal temperatures for the first few days that will then peak on Thursday. Thursday also brings the return of strong winds, with the ECMWF EFI already showing a shift of tails that would indicate higher-end wind potential ahead of a strong clipper system developing for the end of the work week. Latest NBM produces widespread medium chances for precipitation starting Thursday, which would likely be a rain and snow mix due to the warmer temperatures. As the attendant cold front with the clipper moves through Thursday night into Friday, temperatures drop back into the 20s and 30s for the weekend, with snow chances persisting through Sunday. As we stay in active northwest flow aloft for the weekend, there is already a widespread 40 to 70 percent chance for at least an inch of snow, with chances for 48 hour accumulations of at least 4 inches currently in the 30 to 40 percent range across western and central North Dakota. If you have travel plans during the upcoming weekend, keep an eye on the forecast for updates on this accumulating snow potential.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will be found through the night across the forecast area. Some light rain or snow showers are possible tonight, although confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Light snow could then return to southern portions of the state on Monday bringing MVFR to perhaps some IFR conditions, with a chance of snow across the north. Snow then diminishes Monday evening, although MVFR ceilings may linger for some sites. Breezy northwest winds tonight will become a steady east southeast wind on Monday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.