textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers moving south across the state today. Possibly an isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the southern James River Valley.

- After today, mostly dry with only a few hit and miss showers possible through the weekend.

- Below normal temperatures today, then near to above normal temperatures through the weekend. Possibly a cooling trend early to mid-week next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Scattered light rain/snow showers continue to drop south across North Dakota this morning. Made a few minor updates to pops based on latest radar, otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows a mid-upper level circulation with a couple of embedded shortwaves dropping south through southern Canada, with isolated to scattered shower activity indicated on Radar along and north of the Highway 200 corridor. Webcams around Bowbells and Carpio indicted that at least some of this shower activity was reaching the ground. Surface analysis shows the associated surface low over north central ND around the Turtle Mountains.

For today, the surface low will drop southeast into the James/Red River Valley area of southeast ND by around midday, then south into South Dakota during the afternoon. Expect isolated to scattered showers also dropping south through the forecast area, associated with this feature. Expect shower activity this morning with rain or snow showers possible early morning. By this afternoon, there may be enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm over the southern James River Valley. Overall, little significant precipitation is expected today.

High pressure will build behind this system tonight. There is another weak mid-upper level wave dropping south through the area tonight. Some of the short range models are indicating isolated shower activity while others are not. Our current NBM guidance is not indicating measurable precipitation and will leave the forecast dry for now. Would not be surprised to see a small pop enter the forecast for tonight over portions of western and central ND. However, best guest now would be a broad brush low pop along and west of the Highway 83 corridor. Hopefully through the day we will see a little more refinement in the timing placement of any shower activity. Again, little if any significant precipitation is expected.

Friday through Sunday our northwest flow pattern remains, but there is some upper level ridging pushing in from the west. This will bring us milder temperatures with highs back to near to above normal through the weekend. We will see a few waves track through the area within the northwest flow pattern, but with a low predictability in the timing and placement of any such wave, NBM pops are negligible through the weekend. However an isolated shower here or there can not be ruled out through the weekend.

By early next week, there are signs that a Hudson Bay low (that has been lingering over eastern Canada) retrogrades back west and re-establishes the upper level trough over the central and eastern portion of U.S. and bringing temperatures back down to near or below normal early to mid week. Strong upper level ridging will remain to our west. As we push into the latter portions of the work week we could see warmer temperatures creep back into western portions of the forecast area. There will be occasional chances for precipitation as impulses move through the mean upper flow, but no significant precipitation makers are in the forecast. The latest 6-10 day outlook which covers the latter portions of the our forecast period is favoring below normal precipitation across western and central North Dakota.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Scattered showers will continue to drop south through western and central ND this morning, lingering into the afternoon over the far south central into the James River Valley. Included a VCSH at KJMS and KBIS this morning. Mostly low VFR ceilings are expected with this activity, but isolated MVFR cloud bases can not be ruled out over central ND this morning. An afternoon thunderstorm can not be ruled out over the southern JRV, but any storm that would develop is expected to remain south of KJMS. Surface flow will become northwest to north 5 to 15 mph this morning and 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. A few gusts to 25 mph possible over southern ND this afternoon. Winds become light this evening, shifting south to southwest after midnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.