textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend above normal for this weekend, along with breezy daytime winds.

- Rain showers, with a few thunderstorms, will be found at times this weekend into early next week.

- Active weather pattern continues next week, along with near normal temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 938 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Surface low is analyzed off to our west in central Montana, with breezy winds ongoing across much of the forecast area due to a tightened surface pressure gradient. Main changes with this update were to adjust cloud cover across the James River Valley area based on satellite trends, and to trend down POPs in this same area through today, with the chance of precipitation diminished.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Limited updates needed at this time. Low clouds starting to move into southeastern ND. A few showers remain possible with these clouds although limited reports have been noted so far. Overall the forecast remains on track, with the main update for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Surface low developing in Montana will bring warm and breezy southerly flow today. High temperatures today in the warmer areas will be in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s, while cloudy areas see highs in the 50s and 60s. Some near advisory sustained winds are possible as a result, although confidence is not high enough to issue any wind products given a lack of mixing with cloudy skies and a warm southerly flow. This southerly flow will also bring increased lower level moisture to central and especially eastern portions today. This could result in some shower or drizzle activity in these areas. Meanwhile, dry conditions look to be found during the day in the west, lowering afternoon RH values into the 20s and 30s. With the breezier winds expected in the central and east, the fire weather threat will remain limited today. This evening through tonight, weak instability combined with the advancing surface low could bring some showers and thunderstorms to western and central portions. Low clouds could continue in the east, perhaps bringing more chances for light rain, drizzle, or patchy fog. Mild lows tonight in the 40s are expected. Surface low continues to move through Sunday, with a cold front advancing behind this low later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. The result will be continued mild temperatures for most areas, along with chances for showers and thunderstorms especially in the northern half of the state. Severe weather looks limited this weekend given the lack of shear, stronger instability, and overall lift. However, SPC has a broad general risk of thunderstorms today and Sunday. As this surface low moves through Sunday some breezy northwest winds may also develop. Surface front advances southward then stalls Sunday night through Monday, while a weak shortwave is found aloft. This will bring continued chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. Front will cool temperatures slightly for Monday, with highs forecast in the 40s and 50s north to the 60s south.

This first trough looks to push out of the area Tuesday or Wednesday. Given the uncertainty on timing some PoPs linger in the NBM through at least Tuesday, diminishing somewhat on Wednesday. A warming trend may also be found through at least Wednesday. NBM has highs peaking in the 60s on Wednesday, although large temperature spreads indicate perhaps warmer temperatures are possible. Westerly flow behind the exiting wave on Wednesday could bring some lower RH values, although winds look relatively light at this time. Clusters then indicate a Pacific trough could move into the region later in the week. This looks to bring cooler temperatures with more chances for rain and snow showers. Winds with this next trough may also be breezy later next week, although signals for strong winds are currently not showing up in the ECMWF EFI values.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will be found across the west and most of central portions. Lower clouds will push into eastern ND today, including the KJMS area, bringing MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings. These lower clouds may push as far west as KBIS today. Some light rain or drizzle may also be found from these low clouds today, although confidence was too low to include at this time. Tonight, low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog, mist, or rain showers may linger across eastern portions bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings. This includes the KJMS area. Elsewhere will generally see VFR conditions, although some shower and thunderstorm activity may push from west to central in the evening through the night. Confidence was not high enough to include precipitation mention at this time for tonight. Breezy southerly winds will be found for central and eastern sites today. Some low level wind shower may also be found this morning. Winds lesson and become westerly tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.