textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy again today with highs in the mid 60s north to upper 70s south. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop throughout the day.

- Unseasonably cool and windy on Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures next week, with on- and-off low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Recent radar imagery detects a few isolated showers popping up over south central North Dakota and also trying to enter northwest North Dakota. It is unlikely that anything beyond sprinkles is reaching the ground with this activity, but a 15 percent chance of rain has been added to the forecast in these parts of the state through mid morning. Other forecast adjustments for this update were mainly just to blend in current observations and trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Cyclonic flow prevails over the Northern Plains as an upper low spins southwest of Hudson Bay. An increasing stream of shear- induced cyclonic vorticity over a mid/lower level baroclinic zone could spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorms throughout the day today, but overall coverage is expected to remain low, especially compared to yesterday. Effective bulk shear is forecast to be much higher today at around 30-40 kts, but with weaker CAPE, poor mid level lapse rates, and equilibrium levels well below the tropopause. This should preclude any severe weather, but a stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out as can be seen simulated by a couple of CAMs. The most likely corridor for any showers or thunderstorms today, should they even develop, is from west central to southeast North Dakota. Otherwise, expect another day with breezy northwest winds and highs ranging from around 65 along the Canadian border to near 80 along the South Dakota border.

A cold front is forecast to drop down from Canada this evening through tonight ahead of a west-to-east oriented mid/upper trough rotating around the aforementioned upper low. This will make Saturday feel unseasonably cool with highs only around 60 to 65 and northwest winds once again around 20 to 30 mph. The DCVA with the mid/upper trough may generate a band of light rain moving from north to south across the state on Saturday, with higher probabilities in the northern half of the state (but still only around 20 percent). Surface high pressure is forecast to settle over central Montana Saturday night. This may be too far away to allow for strong radiational cooling in western North Dakota, but the NBM still favors widespread lows around 40 to 45 Saturday night, and there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of lows in the upper 30s across the west.

A cyclonic northwest flow pattern looks to continue through much of next week, with ensembles still favoring mean troughing over the eastern CONUS but now either shifting the upstream ridge closer to the Pacific coast or showing it to be much more deamplified than earlier iterations. This should still provide a warm up from Saturday, but temperatures look to remain near to slightly below normal with highs mostly in the 70s from Sunday onward. There is strong consensus in Sunday remaining dry with a large area of surface high pressure covering the Northern and Central High Plains and a subtle transient mid/upper ridge passing through. Shortwave energy embedded in the northwest flow appears to increase on Monday, with the NBM maintaining a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty in the CAPE/shear parameter space on Monday, but it does look like at least a few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this time. A higher chance for showers, and to a lesser extent thunderstorms, could arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday with a clipper-type system that carries a typical amount of ensemble spread in timing and placement at this forecast time range. Conceptually speaking, this could cause Wednesday to be a windier day for some, even beyond what has been persisting for the last several days. By the end of next week, there are signs that the downstream trough and upstream ridge might finally try to shift eastward.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period. There is a low chance for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms throughout the day, but the probability is not high enough to mention in any TAF at this time. Westerly winds around 5-10 kts this morning will once again increase to 15-20 kts out of the northwest this afternoon, then back off to around 10 kts this evening. Later tonight, MVFR ceilings are forecast to spread down from Canada, reaching KMOT and possibly approaching KXWA by the end of the forecast period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.