textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures through the weekend, warming to above normal early to mid next week.

- Periods of breezy winds will be found today and Saturday, then again early next week. - An overall dry weather pattern expected through at least the middle of next week, with only low chances for very light rain today and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 832 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning for much of western North Dakota. Mid to high level cloud will continue to push eastward across the state throughout the day making for mostly cloudy skies today. High temperatures will be in the 60s with breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph. Otherwise no changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Morning lows in the 30s, with some near to slightly below freezing temperatures, continue to be reported this morning. Clouds moving in should limit how cold these lows get, thus will continue to hold on freeze highlights. Some weak returns on the radar in the south also indicating some sprinkles are possible this morning. Maintained low pops as a result. Overall the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Surface high will push eastward this morning. Before doing so some colder temperatures will be found across the area, with some isolated areas below freezing. Current isolated observations combined with increasing clouds will keep confidence to low for a freeze highlight, although some areas will see frost to patchy freeze this morning. As the high moves east today, a weak disturbance aloft will lift the stalled front in the west and produce some weak isentropic lift. This will bring increased clouds and perhaps a few very light rain showers or sprinkles from west to east today. Meanwhile an increased gradient at the surface will bring some breezy southerly winds today. Slightly warmer temperatures will be found in the west and the warmer side of the elevated front, with highs near 70 degrees. Elsewhere will generally see highs in the 60s. Surface low then moves through tonight through Saturday. This will also bring a typical warm front followed by a cold front with this low. As a result more scattered light rain showers or sprinkles are possible tonight through much of the day on Saturday. Confidence was too low for slight pops, although did keep in sprinkle mentions. Behind the weak cold front will bring a switch to a breezy northwest wind sometime Saturday. With drying conditions behind this front, some lower RH combined with these breezy winds could bring some increased fire weather concern Saturday afternoon and early evening. This will mainly be confined to the far southwest. Look for temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s as well on Saturday. Saturday night through Sunday then sees a brief period of high pressure. This will lessen winds, clear skies, and bring cooler overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s Saturday night into Sunday morning. With this high pressure remaining through Sunday, look for seasonable highs in the 60s to near 70 along with light winds.

Flat ridging aloft will provide for weak and mainly dry disturbances to move across the area early to mid next week. Chances for any precipitation are low right now with these disturbances. Mainly concern will be some increased winds to start the week combined with lower RH values especially in the southwest. This could return some fire weather concerns especially in these southwestern areas early next week. Westerly flow aloft will also provide with a general warming trend for next week with highs back in the 70s to perhaps some lower 80s. Lows look to be above freezing and generally in the 40s and 50s. Larger temperature spreads are then starting to show up for later next week as some clusters attempt to break down the ridging pattern with another pacific north west trough. Clusters are still fairly split on this ridge breaking down thus the current forecast maintains mainly dry conditions with above normal temperatures for later next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Increasing mid to upper level clouds will be found from west to east through today. Some sprinkles are possible at times along with some lower VFR ceilings as these clouds move through. Mid to high clouds could then linger through tonight. Southerly winds this afternoon breezy at times sustained 15 to 20 kts gusting 30 kts. Winds lesson tonight shifting to the west later tonight to eventually be fron the northwest by tomorrow afternoon. Breezy winds return sustained 20 to 25 kts gusting to 35 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.