textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of near surface smoke continue through Thursday.

- Isolated showers through the rest of today (20 percent) with better chances late tonight through Thursday night (60 to 80 percent). A few thunderstorms possible Thursday south.

- Near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The overall mid to upper level pattern remains consistent across western and central North Dakota through the next seven days with low amplitude ridging periodically giving way to progressive zonal flow as several shortwaves move through.

For the rest of today, a few light showers will continue drifting across the state. Given high cloud bases and a dry subcloud layer, much of this may not even make it to the ground but a few showers could end up putting down a hundredth of an inch or two. We did decide to take mention of thunder out of the forecast for today, as instability will remain very weak.

Areas of near surface smoke are also forecast to continue over the region through tonight and into Thursday. The latest smoke model runs have the most dense surface smoke drifting west through the rest of today and overnight which makes sense given easterly surface winds. The models do start to thin out the near surface smoke tomorrow as a shortwave approaches to flatten the upper level flow, but we are likely to see some visibility reductions continue across western and central North Dakota until at least Thursday evening.

The aforementioned shortwave approaches late tonight, increasing precipitation chances from southwest to east northeast through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night. The best chances (60 to 80 percent) will generally be in the afternoon and evening hours extending from the northwest part of the state, down through the central, and into the southern James River Valley. Weak instability (if any) will mainly be confined to southern areas along and just north of the South Dakota border, so any thunderstorm activity would likely be here. Shear will be high but instability should be too weak for any severe thunderstorm risk.

The good news is that as the shortwave moves through, the upper flow will become zonal which should give us at least a brief reprieve from the smoke Thursday night into Friday. Low amplitude ridging will pop back up again on Friday afternoon into Friday night which could allow some smoke aloft to filter back in.

Various waves will then move across the area Friday through at least Tuesday, bringing periodic low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 50 percent) to much of western and central North Dakota. At the moment, it appears the strongest waves will come through on Saturday night, Sunday, and Tuesday. This far out, plenty of model uncertainty still exists, but there are some solutions that suggest sufficient instability and shear for strong to severe storms around this time period and beyond. Machine learning severe weather guidance and CIPS analogs continue to highlight this time frame for some low severe weather chances. Thus, the end of the weekend into the middle of next week could end up being a fairly active period with an uptick in thunderstorm activity depending on how the pattern evolves.

Regarding temperatures, it will be breezy (winds still out of the east) and cooler tomorrow with highs mainly in the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Friday will also be relatively cool but not as breezy. Forecast highs will be a touch warmer, ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. We will then warm through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and some lower 80s back in the forecast by Sunday. Highs will then be similar through the middle of next week, mainly in the 70s with the potential for some lower 80s at times.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

MVFR visibilities from near surface smoke will continue at least through the night, possibly improving slowly from east to west. We should see some improvement through the first part of the day on Thursday but it remains unclear how quick these improving visibilities will start to work their way in. For the rest of today, we could see a few isolated to scattered showers but it will be very hit or miss. We will see a better chance of showers tomorrow morning moving into the southwest and slowly drifting east northeast. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out across the southern half of North Dakota, but uncertainty for any one point is too high to include mention at any specific site for now. Brief MVFR visibilities will be possible under any heavier shower that moves overhead.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.