textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms today through the remainder of the week.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the far south late this afternoon through early this evening.

- Highs in the 70s and 80s today and Friday, warming into the 80s and low 90s for the weekend.

- A more active severe weather pattern looks to be in store over the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 844 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Any lingering fog appears to be very localized in nature at this time and should continue to dissipate over the next hour or so. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

We added some patchy fog to portions of south central ND through 14 UTC. Linton and Hettinger were both down to a quarter mile in the past hour. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast. So far convection in SD has stayed well south of the border but there is some shower activity getting closer to the border over far southwest ND.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A broad quasi-zonal upper level flow today over the forecast area, between an exiting pesky Canadian upper low and another eastern Pacific upper low. Multiple impulses moving through the broad flow will work their way into the local area late this afternoon and tonight providing forcing for ascent. The overall setup looks to be marginal for severe storms mainly southwest and far south central late this afternoon into tonight. SPC has expanded their marginal risk a little farther north, but the highest threat for severe storms looks to be south of the forecast area, with a stronger easterly flow, greater instability and shear. With that said, an isolated strong to marginally severe storm can not be ruled out within the SPC marginal risk area, especially in southwest ND where shear and instability will be maximized late afternoon into the early evening. Showers and isolated thunder may spread east and linger through Thursday night as a slow moving shortwave traverses the forecast area, but severe weather is not anticipated beyond the evening hours.

The aforementioned shortwave lingers over central and eastern ND on Friday as upstream ridging develops ahead of the digging eastern Pacific upper low. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out Friday but severe storms are not expected at this time.

The weekend is looking to be hot and potentially stormy at times as we transition into a southwest upper flow ahead of the upper low moving onto the Pacific Northwest Coast Saturday, then lifting through the Northern Rockies and into southern Canada on Sunday. On Saturday convection may develop over central and into eastern Montana during the day and move into western ND in the evening. It will be quite unstable over western ND Saturday afternoon, but likely capped. Large hail would be the main threat for Supercells that do make it into eastern MT and possibly western ND Saturday night. On Sunday, a very moist and unstable, but initially capped airmass is expected to develop over central ND Sunday. We are still quite a ways away, but as the upper low over the Northern Rockies lifts into Canada, strong forcing for ascent is expected to push into the state Sunday evening. GFS depicts very strong bulk shear Sunday night, pretty much parallel to the boundary which would most likely result in rapid upscale growth of convection along the boundary, which would quickly move east. There are still a lot of uncertainties this far out, but Sunday night could get interesting.

Looking ahead to next week, we may be heading into a more stormy pattern. NBM ensemble temperatures are on the mild to warm side mid-week then tail off. However ensemble spreads are pretty high. With the upper level pattern we could definitely see a cloudy and cooler day or two. More interesting are the low probabilities of high qpf amounts (low probabilities of 2-3 inch 24 hour precip amounts each day) mid to late week, not just at Bismarck but across at all sites in western and central ND. NSSL ML guidance is also indicating an increase in the total severe probability through much of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Some shallow patchy fog is possible through around 14 UTC this morning across ND. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z TAF period. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could skirt the far southern border counties this morning. By late afternoon and through this evening, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over southern and western ND. Any storm could contain locally gusty and erratic winds and MVFR visibilities in heavy downpours. Generally westerly winds 5 to 15 knots today with light and variable surface winds tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.