textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures through the workweek, ranging from coolest northeast to warmest southwest. A brief cooldown to near-average temperatures is then favored for Saturday.

- Mostly dry for the rest of the week, with just a 20 percent chance of snow in eastern North Dakota Friday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 905 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

The forecast for tonight remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

The only major forecast adjustment for this update was to increase sky cover through tonight with satellite showing a continuous stream of alto/cirrostratus eminating off the Northern Rockies. Otherwise just blended current conditions and trends at the surface into the forecast. Still some signs of fog underneath low stratus across Bottineau, Rolette, and Pierce Counties, as well as along the eastern fringes of Foster, Stutsman, and LaMoure Counties. Most of this should clear with the increase in southwesterly winds through this evening, except along the southern slopes of the Turtle Mountains where orographic ascent could help maintain low stratus with mist/fog through tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

This afternoon, quasi-zonal flow dominated the synoptic pattern across the north central CONUS, with an embedded shallow shortwave passing over the Northern Plains. A warm front was lifting north through the forecast area to start the afternoon, extending from a low pressure centered in Saskatchewan. Low- level stratus and patchy fog has been persistent in the north central part of the state ahead of the front, but we continue to see the cloud deck slowly receding north. Meanwhile, widespread cirrus associated with the main wave has been pushing into North Dakota, with mostly cloudy skies expected through the short term. Ceilings are high enough that we are not anticipating any precipitation with this feature, although occasional CAMs runs want to bring in isolated areas of light precipitation. However, we are carrying a dry forecast for now, and will monitor upstream observations through the evening in case precipitation looks more likely. Overnight lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s, and with winds staying somewhat elevated, thinking fog will not be much of a problem tonight for western and central North Dakota.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal on Wednesday, with persistent low-level warm air advection behind today's front. The ECMWF EFI has a notable shift of tails and tilt towards the upper end of climatology for max temperatures on Wednesday, so we did utilize the 75th percentile of the NBM for forecast highs. Might not be quite enough of a boost with winds shifting to be more westerly, which favors downsloping and warming winds, so would not be surprised if highs end up overachieving, especially in parts of southwest North Dakota. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s far north and east to the lower 50s southwest.

A weak upper wave and attendant cold front move through on Thursday, dropping highs back down into the mid 20s north to upper 30s southwest, before a more notable shortwave and secondary front approaches for Friday. Although NBM mentionable POPs are limited to eastern North Dakota Friday night, global ensembles are in relatively good agreement on light QPF across the entire forecast area, so the general thought is for light snow Friday into Saturday, although the probability of any real accumulation is very low.

Behind this system, synoptic flow turns sharply to the north, with highs on Saturday ranging from the teens north central and east to the mid 30s southwest. Temperatures moderate quickly on Sunday and into next week, with medium to high confidence in above average temperatures into the middle of next week. We are continuing to monitor signs of a flip back to colder than normal conditions for the back half of January, based on signals in various long- range ensemble guidance and CIPs extended analogs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. There may be patchy LLWS in the northwest tonight with more pronounced LLWS favored to develop Wednesday evening in the northwest and parts of the north central. Winds are forecast to become westerly on Wednesday with sustained speeds of 10 to 20 kts (strongest west and especially northwest) with gusts up to 30 kts in the northwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.