textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend to start the upcoming week.

- Rain/snow chances return Thursday and Friday. Greatest precipitation chances come Thursday night to central North Dakota (40 to 60 percent).

- Becoming windy late Monday into Tuesday, and again Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 935 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Quiet weather continues, no major updates made.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Quiet weather continues over the area. No changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Current surface analysis places a trough along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border southward through the western Dakotas, while a high remains over the central Rockies into the Great Basin. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western CONUS, with northwest flow over our area.

For today, main story is warmer air pushing in from the west, leading to a return to well above average temperatures over our area. Most locations should see high temperatures running about 15 to 20 degrees above average.

Mild temperatures continue over the area through Tuesday, with highs 15 to 25 degrees above average. Mainly quiet conditions continue through this period, with the only exception being Monday night. This is when a short wave passes through northwest flow aloft, passing mainly east of our area. With that said, some light rain could make its way into central North Dakota, but the chances for that remain on the low side (20 to 30 percent). The main effect from this system will be when the surface low passes to our north/east resulting in increasing west-northwest winds. Current guidance keeps us below advisory level winds, but nevertheless it still will be a windy period late Monday through Tuesday.

For Wednesday, an east-west temperature differential will be well noted as warmer airmass retreats some as cooler air settles in with the aforementioned system. Therefore, highs in the upper 20s possible from the Turtle Mountains to the James River Valley, while 40s expected over the southwest. With that said, some question as to how far west the cooler air can actually go, as NBM deterministic forecast over the Turtle Mountains to James River Valley areas are on the lower end of the 25th to 75th percentile spreads.

Thursday will see a potent clipper system dive through the region. This will bring snow (possibly some daytime rain) chances to the area (greatest over our east of about 40 to 60 percent), but the main concern will be the winds. Latest guidance shows the potential for 45kt winds to mix down, and latest ECMWF EFI suggest less than High Wind Warning winds. Therefore, will mention gusts to 50 possible in the latest HWO. To end the week, temperature forecast gets a big sketchy with NBM 25th-75th temperature spreads being about 20 to 25 degrees by Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Low level wind shear may be a concern today, lingering into tonight over a few areas.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.