textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near freezing temperatures could return tonight into Monday morning, especially in northern and some central portions.

- Near critical fire weather conditions may be found across western North Dakota Monday afternoon and early evening.

- Above average temperatures are forecast through the upcoming week.

- Dry conditions continue through Thursday.

- Unsettled weather pattern to end the work week into the weekend, bringing low to medium precipitation chances and breezy to windy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Weak and mainly dry cold front will continue to push across the state tonight. Some breezy northwest winds will be found as a result, along with low afternoon and early evening humidity values. This could bring some fire weather concerns, although winds are overall forecast to remain below near critical fire weather thresholds. Surface high then briefing settles in tonight, bringing continued clear skies along with light and variable winds. Look for lows tonight in the 30s as a result. Some areas could see lows near to perhaps slightly below freezing. Most of these areas in the north and central where freeze conditions have likely already occurred. With forecast near freezing tonight, and some uncertainty on mid to high clouds, will hold off on any Freeze Highlights for now. Conditions should remain too dry for fog development despite calming conditions tonight. Surface high moves eastward Monday, with weak ridging aloft. The surface gradient will bring a southerly wind Monday, with some breezy conditions across the west. These winds combined with very dry conditions should mix out lower dewpoints than NBM forecast, thus lowered these slightly. This lowering of dewpoints brings afternoon RH in the 20s across the west. Combine this with sustained winds near or slightly higher than 20 mph could bring some isolated near critical fire weather conditions across western North Dakota Monday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise look for slightly cooler temperatures on Monday, although highs will still remain in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Mild and dry conditions then look to continue Tuesday through Thursday as upper level ridging continues across the area. Highs in the 60s will be found during this time period, with slightly warmer temperatures in the 70s possible on Thursday as southwest flow aloft is forecast to return to the area. This pattern could also bring some breezy winds on Thursday. Mild lows at night are also expected, with mainly above freezing temperatures forecast. Later in the week into the upcoming weekend will start with above normal temperatures and breezy conditions. Clusters still indicate trough pattern to push across the region later in the week. There still remains some split flow concerns with this system, although this remains the next chance for precipitation. Temperatures still look to remain warm enough for rain with any precipitation that may fall. Even though precipitation is moderate confidence at this point, there is some higher confidence in cooler, perhaps more near normal, temperatures moving in this disturbance later this week. Breezy winds may also continue to at least start the weekend as this potential system moves through.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period along with a few high clouds at times. A steady northwest wind today will become light and variable tonight. Light and variable winds will then become southerly for Monday, with some breezy winds in the west.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.