textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures (cooler northeast, milder southwest) continue through the workweek, then near to above average for the weekend/early next week.

- Low to medium chances (~20 to 50 percent) for light snow mainly over the southwest Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Medium chances (~40 to 60 percent) for light snow late Friday night through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

A few webcams and observations are showing/reporting light snow under the band of reflectivity present over parts of northwestern into south central North Dakota. However, snow remains very light, thus the expectation remains that little to no accumulation will occur.

UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Areas webcams south and west of the Missouri are showing some light snow under the light reflectivities so added a chance of snow within this band of warm advection cloudiness pushing slowly east. Expect little if any accumulation with this activity. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover, otherwise no changes needed for the forecast early this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Current surface analysis places low over northeastern Ontario, with high stretching from the Canadian prairies southward through the northern and central plains into the southern Mississippi River Valley. Upper level analysis places low over far northeast Ontario with ridge over the western CONUS. Over our area, fast north-northwest flow aloft remains, while at the surface temperatures remain on the cool side ranging from the single digits over north central North Dakota to the teens southwest.

Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side through the work week, with a continued northeast to southwest temperature gradient as upper ridge remains well to our west and we remain in a north-northwesterly upper level flow pattern.

Quiet weather continues through Wednesday over the area before a short wave breaking through the ridge to the west pushes mainly over southwest parts of our area. This will bring low to medium chances (~20 to 50 percent) for snow, with the greatest chances over the far southwest. Accumulations, if they were to occur, would be quite light, with latest NBM guidance suggesting only about a 20 to 30 percent chance of seeing an inch or more, and that is mainly over the far southwestern part of the state.

Upper ridge pushes towards the east for this weekend, with temperatures climbing near to possibly a bit above average. With that said, medium snow chances (~40 to 60 percent) enter the forecast late Friday through Saturday as a clipper system drops through the area, along with breezy conditions. Again, not much snow expected at this time with NBM probability showing about 20 to 30 percent chance of an inch or greater mainly along and east of Highway 83. Milder temperatures then look to hold into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

A band of low to mid level clouds (generally 5-8kft) situated over western/central ND to begin the 06Z TAF period will push slowly east tonight into early Wednesday morning, then get pushed back to the west on Wednesday as high pressure builds south from Canada into eastern North Dakota. There has been some light snow with this activity but it looks to be east of KDIK and KXWA, and not sure if it will reach KBIS/KMOT, but may consider a mention of light snow flurries at these two TAF sites. Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period except possibly a MVFR cig/vsby at KBIS or KMOT in light snow in the overnight hours, the possibly toward the end of the TAF period with another push of light snow into western ND. Light west to northwest surface flow tonight, but becoming light and variable west. Winds will shift easterly over western ND, to northeast over central ND on Wednesday, remaining generally 5 to 10 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.