textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures favored for most areas this week, with highs in the 30s and 40s.

- Medium chances for light rain and snow across southern North Dakota Monday morning and afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Observed and modeled trends were blended into the forecast for this update, resulting in no significant changes. Current radar does show returns streaming across central and southern parts of the state. Ceilings have lowered to 7,000 ft AGL, but there is no evidence of precipitation reaching the ground as of this writing. Do not anticipate anything beyond sprinkles until stronger frontogenesis begins to spread from west to east across southern North Dakota later tonight into Monday morning. 00Z CAMs appear evenly split on whether precipitation will fall as rain or snow Monday morning and afternoon, which implies that types will be highly sensitive to near-surface air and wet-bulb temperatures. The highest probabilities for snow as a type are in southwest North Dakota. HREF probability-matched mean QPF is in the one to two tenths of an inch range where the higher snow probabilities are located, but near to above freezing surface air and wet-bulb temperatures should keep snow amounts very minimal to none.

UPDATE Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Dense fog and low clouds are finally clearing from the Turtle Mountains area. Some models are showing fog developing along an axis of surface/low-level moisture convergence in the southern James River Valley later this evening through tonight, but stronger winds above the near-surface layer and thicker mid to high clouds could limit this potential. A mention of patchy fog has been added to the forecast. Other forecast changes for this update included 1) boosting PoPs into the likely category across southern North Dakota Monday morning and early afternoon with guidance consolidating on the location of a broad band of light rain, mixing with snow at times; 2) decreased the high temperature forecast in southwest North Dakota on Monday where there is high confidence in extensive cloud cover and light precipitation during peaking heating; and 3) increased sky cover through tonight based on late afternoon visual observations of the thickness of the mid to high clouds streaming over the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Temperatures have warmed into the 50s out west with mid 40s across the south central. A warm front continues to move through the region this afternoon pushing out the low stratus. There are some high clouds lingering across eastern Montana which will likely cap temperatures in the upper 50s with a the chance of a few sites reaching the lower 60s. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the lower 30s. The Hi-Res models are hinting at a banded precipitation event taking place tonight across the southern half of the state. Precipitation chances are forecast to be light rain during the day and a light rain snow mix snow overnight. This is the first run were the CAMs have been in some what an agreement of timing and location. Temperatures will cool down into the 30s to lower 40s Monday afternoon. Even though cooler temperatures are incoming Monday's temperatures will remain above normal 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Quasi-zonal pattern will continue through the middle of the week with chances 20 to 40 percent for rain and snow Wednesday and Thursday along the North and South Dakota border. Persistent above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of this coming week as well with temperatures in the 40s. The pattern could be more active next weekend as the ensembles have a troughing pattern out west.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected at most terminals through the forecast period. An area of light rain and snow is likely to develop across southern North Dakota from west to east Monday morning, then sag southward through the afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility are possible with the precipitation in the southwest corner of the state, but KDIK is more likely to remain at VFR unless a period of snow occurs. There could also be another round of MVFR ceilings across parts of north central and eastern North Dakota later tonight through Monday, but this is not expected to impact KMOT or KJMS.

Gusty westerly winds are expected across northern North Dakota through tonight. Low level wind shear will also impact north central parts of the state, including KMOT, through this evening. Winds will become northwesterly around 10-15 kts on Monday, with some higher gusts across the north.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.