textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cool night overnight, then warming trend through Thursday.

- Little to no rain through this week.

- Low to medium chances of showers and a few thunderstorms return in the beginning of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Quiet weather continues over the area with going forecast remaining on track.

UPDATE Issued at 941 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

High clouds are spreading out of Montana and into western ND as of mid evening, so the cloud cover forecast was increased to reflect at least a partly cloudy sky overnight. Dewpoints are only in the 30s F as of 02Z though, and winds have already become light, which is enabling quick cooling. Thus, we made no change to tonight's low temperature forecast with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A diurnal cumulus field continues as of early evening, but is expected to diminish quickly along with winds with the approach of sunset. This will be a result of decreasing boundary layer mixing, and ultimately decoupling of the boundary layer by late evening amidst a weak surface pressure gradient. A cool night is still on track, with lows in the 40s F. This is all handled well by the previous forecast, so only minor changes were made with this update based on observed trends, and to refresh the hourly forecast fields through the night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Currently northwest flow over the Northern Plains is present as a part of a large cyclonic system in south central Canada. This cyclonic flow has brought much cooler temperatures to the region and has allowed diurnal cumulus to form. This has also kept the wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest to stay out of North Dakota, and instead flow to the south. For tonight we bump down the NBM lows about 4 degrees as last night we dropped well below the NBM forecast.

Through the rest of this week, a ridge that is currently over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move east. A thermal ridge built into the ridge will aid in warming temperatures back into the low 90s, mainly southwest and south central, by Thursday. Heading into the weekend that ridge will flatten and push the much the warmer temperatures in the thermal ridge south of the state. Highs over the weekend will then be steady in the 70s to 80s. Fire weather concerns continue to increase, mainly in the southwest half of the state, with warm temperatures and relative humidities 15 to 20 percent, along with drying grasses. A cold front will also pass through Thursday, leading to breezy northwest winds.

Early next week there will be a low to medium chance of rain starting Sunday night with a small wave in the cyclonic flow in southern Canada. That cyclonic flow looks to stick around next week and regulate our temperatures around average or slightly below (low 80s).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.