textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect Bowman and Slope counties this afternoon and early evening. Near-critical fire weather conditions for the counties surrounding the Red Flag Warning.

- Breezy today with strong westerly winds this evening through Saturday morning.

- Near-record high temperatures today southwest and south central, then much colder this weekend into early next week.

- Mostly dry through the weekend, with only low to medium chances for light rain in the northwest tonight.

UPDATE

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The biggest update at this time is that a Wind Advisory has been issued tonight until mid-Saturday morning for the entire CWA, except LaMoure and Dickey counties. Full details will be with the full afternoon AFD.

Otherwise, expansive cloud cover has kept temperatures mainly in the 60s. That said, the stratus deck is rapidly clearing from south to north with the clearing near the ND/SD border at this point. At this rate, the clearing should reach most of the I94 corridor within the next hour or two. Record highs remain possible at Dickinson and Bismarck, though the question remains if clearing will occur soon enough with peak heating only a few hours away. In addition, southeasterly winds are present at both sites, which is not the most favorable warming wind component. While winds may switch to south or even south southwesterly sooner at Dickinson; Dickinson also maintains a slightly stronger record (79 degrees vs 77 degrees for Bismarck).

UPDATE Issued at 858 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Patchy fog persists across parts of the area, though visibility has been improving overall over the past hour or so. The ongoing forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The only change for the early morning update was to add patchy fog over portions of western and central ND. A couple of spots with some low visibilities, but not enough at this time for an Advisory, or even a SPS. Will continue to monitor though.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Wind and fire weather concerns are the main highlights today.

Currently, surface low pressure was situated over western Montana with a moderate southerly surface flow over western and central ND. Skies ranged from clear to partly cloudy over the area, with mild temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

For today, the northern portion of a splitting upper level trough to our west will lift into central Montana, with a surface low situated over the ND/MT border near Sidney Montana by 00 UTC Saturday. A warm front will extend southeast from the low through south central ND, allowing for very warm temperatures in southwest and south central ND. Record highs will be possible at Dickinson and Bismarck this afternoon. A passing shower is possible today as strong warm advection lifts through the state, but qpf amounts would be insignificant (a trace to a hundredth or two). Better chances for precip will be limited to the northwest tonight where some light post-frontal rain could occur.

Fire weather concerns increase in the southwest this afternoon. Will cover this in the Fire Weather section below.

As the upper level trough and associated surface low lifts northward into Canada, a strong cold front will move quickly east through western and central ND. This will bring a period of strong west to northwest winds to the forecast area tonight into Saturday morning, and possibly lingering into the afternoon over the north central. Overall, there was little change in the specifics with this system, when compared to 24 hours ago. The max winds at the top of the boundary layer are perhaps a little lower, but the strength of the cold advection and the strength and placement of the fall-rise couplet are very similar. Bufkit soundings indicate 45-50 knots of wind atop a well mixed boundary layer that could potentially work down to the surface. The timing of the cold front passage is not ideal. The depth of the unidirectional flow and the steep lapse rates is right around 850 mb, so this could be better too. The strength and track of the initial shortwave is not ideal either. On the other hand, the amount of cold advection and the magnitude of the isallobaric change is short lived, but impressive. Initial thoughts are that we may need a wind advisory tonight over a portion of the forecast area. Given that the initial push of strong winds will not be until tonight in the west, we will hold off on issuing any headlines at this time. The orientation of the 850 jet as well as the upper level jet tonight would suggest that western and north central ND would be the areas most likely to see sustained advisory criteria winds. As you get into south central ND you get farther away from the strongest winds and the greatest isallobaric component. Cold advection also drops off a bit. With the late timing and uncertainties remaining, will let the day shift take another look.

Winds drop off quickly from west to east Saturday. Advisory criteria winds could be done before midday for most areas. The far northern tier counties, and especially around the Turtle Mountains, could see stronger winds linger into the afternoon.

Much cooler on Saturday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures then remain nearly steady, near to a little below normal Sunday and into next week.

The southern portion aforementioned splitting upper level trough, lingers over the southwest U.S. a bit then lifts into the Central/Northern Plains early in the work week. There is some uncertainty as to how far north this system makes it, but at least southern portions of the forecast area could see some low to medium chances for light precipitation. With our cooler temperatures in place, there will be a chance of a mix of rain and snow late Sunday night into Monday morning, and again late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Another upper level system may bring additional precipitation chances into the area by mid to late in the workweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds are expected across most of western through central North Dakota this afternoon. A strong cold frontal boundary will then pass from west to east this evening through tonight bringing gusty westerly winds to the area. Along with the frontal boundary, MVFR ceilings are expected mainly for western and north central North Dakota tonight into Saturday morning. These ceilings will likely clear off for most of the area by mid-morning. Light rain is possible mainly in the northwest tonight, though brief isolated light rain showers or sprinkles are also possible in the James River Valley Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Very warm and dry air is forecast to spread into southwest North Dakota this afternoon. Breezy south to southwest winds to around 20 mph, with gusts to 35 mph are also possible this afternoon over southwest North Dakota. The combination of the strong winds and very warm and dry air will result in critical fire weather conditions over portions of Bowman and Slope counties in far southwest North Dakota. An area of near critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Golden Vally, Billings, Stark, Hettinger and Adams counties. In these areas, it will be warm and breezy to windy as well, but humidities are not forecast to drop as low as in the far southwest. Currently, the Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 PM. Strong to very strong winds will move into western North Dakota this evening behind a strong cold front. Humidities will increase significantly behind the front, but there may be a few hours where the strong winds overcome any mitigating factors of higher humidities and cooler temperatures, especially if any fires are ongoing. Will continue to monitor for a possible extension in time to take the strong winds behind the cold front into account.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033- 040-041-043-044. Wind Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ003>005-012-013-019-020-022-023-025- 035>037-042-046-047-050-055>062. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NDZ040-043.