textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of rain or snow showers in the north central and northern James River Valley this afternoon.

- Breezy through Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures through Wednesday followed by a warming trend to finish out the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 935 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Weak radar returns are moving across the International Border into north central North Dakota at the time of this mid morning update. With high cloud bases and dry near surface conditions, little precpitation is expected to reach the ground. Virga is evident on NDDOT cameras. Have made some slight adjustments to the sky cover with this update to account for the latest satellite trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The possibility of afternoon isolated showers in the north and east look to be less now based on the latest CAM guidance. Although there are still some CAMs that have these showers in the far northeast, confidence has lowered. As of now, did not adjust the going PoP forecast, and the rest of the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Currently a low pressure system is sitting north of Lake Superior. This is leading to a large area of cyclonic flow from Montana to Michigan. The West Coast is split by 2 different upper level systems; a high moving into the Pacific Northwest, and a low moving into southern California. At the surface in the Northern Plains, weak high pressure is in eastern Montana to central North Dakota.

Today will be a little cooler with highs in the 40s as that cyclonic flow continues to filter in cooler air. With a somewhat tight pressure gradient across the state, today will be breezy again but not a strong as yesterday. Expect northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph, especially in the northwest and James River Valley. With this cyclonic flow, we added a 20 percent chance of rain and snow showers in the north central and central parts of the state again. There is drier air to the west of Highway 83 so we did not add those PoPs to the west.

Through the rest of this week that ridge and high pressure in the Pacific Northwest will slowly slide east, pushing this low pressure east. This will in turn warm temperatures to above normal by this weekend. The NBM is fairly confident in the temperature ranges that we will be in the 60s or 70s in the latter part of the week. With the ridge, very little precipitation is expected. This weekend could see some rain in the southwest from a shortwave moving through Montana and Wyoming.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 935 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR CIGs and VIS through the forecast period for all of western and central ND. Winds will increase again this afternoon to 15 to 25 kts from the northwest, and calming after sunset. There is another very slight chance of rain and snow showers in the north central and eastern parts of the state this afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.