textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with only a few hit and miss showers possible through the weekend.

- Near to above average temperatures through the weekend, then cooler early to mid-week next week.

- Dry conditions combined with breezy to windy conditions could lead to near critical fire weather conditions this weekend into early next week, with critical fire weather conditions possible on Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Aforementioned frontal boundary continues passing through the state producing windy conditions out of the northwest with gusts generally up to 35 mph. Other than a few sprinkles, any radar echoes should remain virga this afternoon. All in all the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A weak frontal boundary continues passing across the state from northwest to southeast, which is bringing breezy winds and dewpoints that are a few degrees higher for this afternoon. With a lot of dry air persisting in the lower levels, precipitation is not reaching the ground under observed radar echoes ahead of the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A northwest upper level flow pattern will continue through the forecast period. A couple of cold fronts, today through Monday will be the main focus for impactful weather.

Currently, a cold front was situated over southeast Saskatchewan with a cold front extending back into north central Montana. Over western and central ND, a south to southwest surface flow was situated over the area with increasing high level clouds dropping south from Canada.

For today, the aforementioned cold front will push into northwest ND this morning, and will extend from northeast through southwest ND around midday and exiting the forecast area late this afternoon. Highs are forecast to rise into the mid 60s north to mid 70s south with breezy to windy southwest winds shifting to the northwest to north behind the cold front. Considerable cloudiness is expected today across the area, but the chances for showers looks to be minimal. Our NBM guidance is depicting an area of low pops (20-30%) dropping north to south today, mainly east of the Highway 83 corridor. QPF will be limited with mostly trace amounts, but some brief showers with some locally gusty winds can not be ruled out. There are some fire weather concerns and will mention these in the Fire Weather Discussion. It will be breezy to windy today. The RAP is showing a small are of near Advisory to Advisory criteria winds tracking from north central into southeast ND behind the surface low. This area of stronger winds propagates quickly with only a couple hours of stronger winds. Overall, expect winds to remain below advisory criteria, but will need to monitor.

Sunday will be another breezy to windy day with westerly winds expected across the forecast area, ahead of another cold front that drops through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday will be another breezy to windy day with the strongest winds forecast across northern ND. Will need to monitor for possible wind advisory on Sunday, but too uncertain at this time. Low to medium (20 to 30%) chances for showers track north to south Sunday night through Monday, with once again, little in the way of any significant precipitation. Monday will breezy to windy once again, with significantly cooler temperatures, especially across the north. Highs in the north Monday will be on the order of 15 to 25 degrees colder than Sunday. Highs Monday range form the upper 40s north to upper 50s south.

The majority of the upcoming work week will bring mostly dry weather with a slow warming trend. Highs will remain in the mid 40s to low 50s on Tuesday and warming into the 60s by Friday and Saturday. Other than a passing sprinkle or brief shower, dry conditions are expected to prevail.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Breezy to windy conditions out of a northwesterly to northerly direction are expected through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening as a frontal boundary passes through. A few radar echoes are present, though other than a few sprinkles, these should be mostly in the form of virga this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable tonight before gusty westerly winds develop again late Sunday morning and afternoon, especially in northern parts of the state. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Fire weather concerns highlight the forecast today through Monday.

Today: Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across southern and western North Dakota. A cold front will move southeast through western and central North Dakota today. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s along and south of the I-94 corridor. In addition, dry air ahead of the cold front will be in place across southern North Dakota. The combination of the anticipated low humidities, with breezy to windy southwest winds, shifting northwest will produce near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Directly behind the cold front humidities are expected to rise due to considerable clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. However, much drier air will follow, pushing into the northwest late in the afternoon into the early evening. Although winds will be on the decrease here by late afternoon, there will be a period where the winds and low humidities will combine to produce near critical fire weather conditions behind the front in the northwest.

Sunday: A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of western and portions of central North Dakota.

Another cold front will move south through North Dakota Sunday night. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s across western and central North Dakota. Strong west winds are expected to develop ahead of the front as well on Sunday. The strongest winds on Sunday are expected to be over northern and eastern portions of the state. Much of northwest and portions of central North Dakota will have the potential to see Critical Fire Weather conditions Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over the remainder of western and central North Dakota.

Monday will be much colder than the weekend with humidities not as low. However with strong to very strong winds expected, the combination of the strong winds with low humdities may result in near critical fire weather conditions over western and central North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021>023-031-032.