textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds expected over most of western and central North Dakota Thursday into Thursday evening, with gusts up to 70 mph.

- Periods of snow are possible Thursday/Thursday night primarily over northern locations. Greatest chances for accumulation remains over and adjacent to the Turtle Mountains where 1 to 3 inches are possible, which combined with the wind could significantly reduce visibility.

- Snow again develops over much of the area Saturday into early Sunday. Greatest chances for impacts due to snow remain along and south of Interstate 94.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Current surface analysis places low along the Alberta and Saskatchewan border while high stretches from Manitoba south- southwestward towards the central Rockies. Upper level analysis places trough pushing over the Pacific Northwest with west- northwesterly flow containing a few subtle waves over and to the west of our area. Quiet weather remains in place for us.

For tonight, aforementioned Pacific upper wave quickly pushes east over the Rockies while surface low deepens to the lee of the Canadian/Montana Rockies and starts to shift over the plains. Southerly winds will become breezy late tonight ahead of this system, with precipitation chances as mainly snow starting to increase over the west late.

On Thursday, aforementioned short wave deepens as it slides near the International Border, closing off towards evening. In the meantime, surface low slides over the state, pushing over the Red River Valley by evening. Precipitation spreads through the area, with the initial push coming as snow. Then a transition towards rain is expected over many locations except the far north before the cold push of air comes behind the low. Once the cooler air pushes in, expect a transition from north to south back to snow for any lingering precipitation. Winds will quickly be on the increase with this deepening low as colder air pushes into the area. Forecast soundings over western and many central parts of the state continue to suggest very strong winds mixing down, so will continue to advertise gusts to 70 mph. For the Turtle Mountains and adjacent areas, expect snow to continue through the afternoon into the evening, with accumulations around one to three inches. Soundings there suggest lesser winds, but still gusting to around 50 mph which, combined with the anticipated snow, could result in some periods of near blizzard conditions. Precipitation will taper off Thursday evening as the system slides east, with winds gradually tapering off from west to east late Thursday evening through the overnight.

Friday will see cooler temperatures and medium snow chances mainly west and south central as another wave moves through.

Saturday will be the next day of concern as an upper trough approaches and pushes through the region and a surface low slides through the central plains. There remains some uncertainty with this system, but impactful weather remains a concern, particularly along and south of Interstate 94. Latest NBM guidance continues to show medium probabilities (~50-70 percent chance) of seeing 4 inches or more snow over this area, lesser as you go north. System departs the area Sunday.

Cooler temperatures stick around to start the upcoming week, with a notable warming trend possible by mid-week. NBM guidance does show a notable spread in possible temperatures, but the main message is that even with that, the trend is warmer. With that said, some precipitation chances remain in the forecast with the warm air pushing in.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A clipper system will push into the area on Thursday. Expect periods of snow to push through the area early Thursday morning, with a transition to rain later in the morning. The exception may be far northern North Dakota where precipitation may remain as snow. This could bring periods of MVFR to IFR visibility. Southerly winds will increase tonight, shifting west to northwest Thursday morning and increasing. Gusts to 50 kts will be possible over western locations late Thursday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034- 035-042-045-046. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ004-005-013. High Wind Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ012-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.