textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, but still seasonable to mild Tuesday through Saturday with highs ranging from the 60s northeast to the 70s southwest.

- Possibly much cooler Sunday and into early next week with low to medium chances for rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Calm and clear conditions persist across western and central North Dakota at the time of this mid to late evening update. No adjustments were required at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Quiet weather conditions are found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. A weak cold front passing through the northern Plains this evening has begun to turn westerly. No major adjustments to the forecast were performed with this update, as it remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Pretty quiet forecast this week and into the early portion of the weekend. Still a lot of uncertainty late in the forecast period.

Currently, surface low pressure over Saskatchewan with a warm front extending southward through far western ND. The warm front will push east through central ND by this evening. Over western ND this afternoon westerly winds behind the cold front, combined with continued dry air behind the weak cold front, will result in near critical fire weather conditions in far southwest ND for a couple hours late this afternoon. This area is where winds are forecast to be strongest with the warmest temperatures. Winds are expected to diminish quickly early this evening. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday will be noticeably cooler in the southwest, but much of central ND will see temperatures similar to today. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s. There may be another short period of near critical fire weather conditions in the far southwest once again as we mix out in the mid to late afternoon. At this time will hold off on adding the wording to the Fire Weather Forecast as the duration is short and the areal extent is even less than today (portions of Bowman County). Will let the overnight shift take another look with a new model run.

As a northwest upper flow pattern becomes more established through mid-week, we see a very gradual downward trend in forecast high temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with daytime highs on Thursday in the 60s statewide. A stray jet induced sprinkle or shower is not out of the question, but will maintain a dry forecast.

Friday and Saturday looks to be a transition period from an northwest upper flow to a southwest upper flow. Surface low pressure associated with a leading shortwave tracking from the eastern Pacific to British Columbia Canada tracks into the Northern Plains region by the Friday/Saturday timeframe. This should allow for at least a little warmer temperatures into Saturday, although ensemble temperature spreads for Friday/Saturday have increased since yesterday so confidence is low for a significant warm-up. There does look to be a cooldown on Sunday with at least some low to moderate (20-40%) precipitation chances as the aforementioned northern stream shortwave and attendant surface low push through the forecast area.

The following wave moving onshore results in a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest by later in the day Saturday. There appears to be even more uncertainty in how this feature evolves into early next week, when compared to yesterday. It does appear that it will take longer for the closed low to eventually emerge in the Plains, and although there is still a colder solution, the trend was toward a not so cold solution. There remains quite large spread in the NBM ensemble temperatures Sunday and into next week. The deterministic models show pretty good agreement in a closed upper low dropping south into the Great Basin region, but with increasing uncertainty as to when and where they emerge onto the Plains. At this time will maintain NBM temperatures and PoPs through the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 915 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals throughout the 00Z TAF period. Diminishing south winds early this evening will turn westerly overnight, then turn northwesterly through late Tuesday morning and the afternoon. northwesterly winds are expected to become breezy, with sustained winds up to around 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots across portions of the southwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.