textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to high chances for precipitation this afternoon into Monday morning, mainly south of Highway 2, though forecast precipitation amounts has lowered.

- Mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through the first part of the week, then a warming trend develops.

UPDATE

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Light snow showers continue to stream into the northwest. In South Dakota the rain is getting closer, timing looks to be around the later afternoon in the south. Adjusted the PoPs in the northwest to reflect reality.

UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The rain and snow showers have moved into the northwest, however there has been no ground truth yet. The rain with the main show is still deep into South Dakota. The forecast was updated with the latest NBM data.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Going forecast remains in good shape. No changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current surface analysis places low stretching from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, with high over North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Upper level analysis places low over central Saskatchewan, with trough dropping towards secondary low over southern Nevada. Over our area, quiet weather continues.

The main story for our forecast continues to be the aforementioned secondary upper low passing over the Rockies, and affiliated surface low spinning up to the lee of the Rockies later today over southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico. This system will then eject towards the upper Midwest overnight tonight through Monday. The main concern is that the latest round of guidance has backed off on precipitation amounts. Although most locations south of Highway 2 are likely to see at least some precipitation, the area with medium to high chances (40 percent or greater) of seeing a quarter inch or more of rainfall is now limited to along and south/southeast of a line from Bowman to Bismarck to Carrington, which was notably further to the northwest yesterday.

On Monday system does a gradual departure. Main story on Monday may switch from rain to wind as the surface low lifts through the central plains into the upper Midwest, with a modestly tight pressure gradient developing on its backside. This would bring gusty northerly winds to central North Dakota into the James River Valley.

From Tuesday through Thursday, some low chances for showers occasionally pass through southern portions of the area but overall looks to be dry. Temperatures will be on a very slow warming trend, with NBM quite confident in temperatures remaining a bit below average to start, closing in on average by Thursday. Warming trend continues to end the week with seasonably mild temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR this afternoon. Light snow showers are possible in the northwest currently. This evening rain showers will move in from South Dakota and mostly spread statewide. MVFR or IFR CIGs are expected in the rain. Far northern ND looks to stay dry. Winds this afternoon will be southeasterly gusting around 20kts, calming after sunset.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.