textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry today through Sunday, although low chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms return to the southwest Sunday afternoon. - Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday night.

- Near daily low to medium chances (20-60%) chances for rain expected through the week. - Below normal temperatures this weekend, followed by a brief warm up on Monday. Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, then warming later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Zonal flow aloft continues across the Northern Plains as the surface low over northern Minnesota move eastward. Satellite imagery shows clouds continuing to clear across the west as temperatures warm into the 70s. There is a chance that some of the low clouds hang on a little longer in central and eastern North Dakota then what models have forecast. Tonight, overnight lows are forecast to drop down around the mid 40s out west as surface high pressure moves into the region with 50s elsewhere. Sunday, high temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s and 80s across the area as surface high pressure will clear skies before a weak ridge moves across the High Plains. There is some marginal instability possible across the southwest tomorrow afternoon which could result in a low chance of strong storms. The CSU ML program is pegging a low chance for severe weather tomorrow afternoon. An upper level wave could kick storms off in the afternoon and evening continuing precipitation into the over night hours mainly across the southern half of the state. Overnight low Sunday are forecast to drop down into the 50s.

Monday, temperatures will continue to warm into the 80s as the ridge out west strengthens. There is another low chance of strong to severe storms in the southeastern half of the state extending into the James River Valley Monday afternoon. This will bring a front to the region which will slightly cool temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Another wave could move through the region Tuesday bringing forth low to medium chances of rain across the state. Low chances for precipitation will continue on through the week tapering off by the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the region which will lead to warmer weather. This ridge could push temperatures back into the upper 80s to lower 90s next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Low ceilings will continue to increase in height this afternoon leading to VFR conditions across all terminals and expect for KJMS which may improve this evening. Clouds are beginning to scatter out across the west improving ceiling as well. Winds will remain out of the northwest as a front passes through the region.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.