textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix of rain, snow, and possibly some freezing rain mainly north this morning. Rain with snow mixed in on the backside then spreads southeast across the forecast area this afternoon through tonight.

- Temperatures this afternoon will range from seasonably mild north to unseasonably warm south. It will be noticeably colder far north on today but the central and south will remain mild. Temperatures cool statewide on Tuesday.

- There is increasing confidence in a system bringing widespread snow to the the region late Thursday through Saturday. Uncertainty remains high though in the timing of the system and as well as if snow or rain will be favored.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently there is a surface low pressure and upper level wave impacting the Northern Plains. A broad area of rain, turning into snow, is on going along and north of Highway 2. There is a slight chance of freezing rain this morning along the Highway 2 corridor, confidence is very low with model soundings not fully supporting that idea. Here at 2AM, most of the precipitation is rain as surface temperatures are mostly above freezing. It seems like the heavier bands of precip are remaining snow all the way to the ground. This precip, on the positive vorticity side of the wave, will continue through the late morning. This afternoon a backdoor cold front behind the surface low will sweep in west to east, forming another area of rain and snow. This time in the central and possibly south central through tonight. The QPF through the system is around 0.25 inches in the north, resulting in 1 to 3 inches of snow along the International border. This evening the QPF is much lower and mainly rain is expected. This cold front will also create breezy winds in the west, northwest winds gusting near 30 mph are expected in the west this evening. High temperatures today will be in the lower 30s north to mid 60s south.

Tonight that cold front will continue sweeping east across the state, creating brief periods of winds gusting near 30 mph. The rain and snow in the central and south could continue through most of the night along the front and wrap around moisture. Overnight lows will be in the upper teens north to 30 in the southern James River Valley. The northern part of the state's lows will be several degrees below normal.

The middle of this week will be slightly quiet with zonal flow, while a trough and low pressure form on the west coast. In the central part of the CONUS southwest flow will form a low, and slightly influence the Dakotas. Chances (40%) for snow will linger Wednesday into Thursday across much of the state, with little to no accumulation expected.

Thursday a big low pressure system will move in from the Pacific Northwest, creating widespread snowfall Thursday evening through Saturday. The current NBM snowfall forecast is a large swath of 5 inches along and south of Highway 200. The 25th to 75th percentile range is 1 to 7 inches, showing the range of different possibilities yet. NBM probabilities of 4 inches are 55 percent and 30 percent for 6 inches. The models are starting to agree on the placement of the low, now it's just the timing is slightly off from each other. Lots of uncertainty with this one, but either way it will snow an impactful amount somewhere in the Dakotas. Temperatures will remain around or slightly below normal through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR south, to MVFR and IFR north with falling rain, snow, and lower CIGs. This will continue through most of the period, with chances for the rain and snow to slide south at the end of the period. Winds are starting to gust to 25 kts in the north. This evening winds will shift to the northwest and gust 10 to 20 kts, with the stronger winds in the west.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.