textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will trend warmer through the work week, and are then favored to trend cooler next weekend.

- Low to medium chances (20% to 50%) for light precipitation at times through the middle of this week, followed by higher uncertainty for precipitation to end the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 634 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Quiet weather continues over the area with only some passing clouds, mainly over the western part of the state. No forecast changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft remains over the Northern Plains with an upper level ridge building into the Rockies and a broad upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure ridge extending across the central Dakotas this afternoon, resulting in a clear sky and light winds across western and central North Dakota. Temperatures outside of southwest ND (where temperatures have risen into the teens thanks to return flow) remain chilly in the single digits above where a cold airmass remains.

Aforementioned ridge continues to build east across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains for Monday, then broadens as it's flattened by multiple embedded waves and a strong upper level jet Monday night into Tuesday. This pattern change coupled with southerly flow/WAA ahead of a clipper system will bring a milder airmass into the region, with temperatures warming by 20-30 degrees for Monday compared to today. Mid level wave and upper level jet streak will push an associated sfc low and cold front through the region Mon night, resulting in a swath of light precipitation moving east-southeast over my northern and eastern counties (mainly in the form of light snow). Most if not all precipitation will be out of our area for Tuesday, with a typical breezy and cooler post-frontal regime in the wake of the cold FROPA.

A west-northwesterly flow pattern will then be in place for the remainder of the week, keeping temperatures at or above normal through Friday. Another S/WV and frontal passage occur Tue night through Wednesday, bringing another decent chance for precipitation to the Northern Plains. All snow is expected outside of the southwest, where a rain/snow mix is forecast. Amounts again look light (less than tenth of an inch), though there is precip banding potential given models showing some Div Q/mid level frontogensis linkage late Tue night/early Wed.

Afterwards, ensembles depict a broad troughing pattern over Canada into the northern CONUS, suggesting temperatures trending cooler for the weekend. Large spread in guidance regarding any precipitation chances, as this will be dependent on smaller scale features best resolved by models as we progress in time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Patchy fog will be possible tonight over parts of central North Dakota, but coverage will be low and still some question as to whether it will develop. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.