textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through much of this week.

- Snow chances return Thursday and Friday. Greatest precipitation chances come Thursday night to central North Dakota (40 to 60 percent).

- Becoming windy late Monday into Tuesday, and again Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 943 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Quiet evening across western and central North Dakota, with mid/upper level clouds streaming south-southeast aloft and relatively mild sfc temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s. No changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

No major changes to the forecast for tonight with this product issuance. Northwest flow aloft with westerly flow at the surface. Variable clouds tonight with areas of mid/upper level cloudiness along with periods of mostly clear conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Currently quasi-zonal flow is present in the Northern Plains, with a slight northwest tilt. There's a slight ridge axis moving through the Pacific Northwest. The slight northwest tilt will keep the cooler temperatures to our east through the early part of this week. At the surface a warm front along a surface trough moved through today, leaving breezy winds and temperatures in the 30s to 50s.

Monday will be more of the same with temperatures well above normal for January. Monday night a passing clipper will tighten the pressure gradient across the state, and sweep down a back door cold front after midnight. The cold front, however, will not affect temperatures much, it will just create Advisory level wind gusts early Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon. We slightly bumped up the NBM winds with a blend of the 90th percentile for this period. Aloft the flow will be out of the north, with an area of higher heights over the West Coast through Saturday. Thursday into Friday could feature the next round of light snow with another clipper system. Winds will increase again, the ECMWF EFI suggest less than High Wind Warning winds for now.

A great amount of uncertainty remains on how the week will end. With that clipper system the models vary, and it is even affecting the temperature forecast. The NBM temperature spreads range from the lower teens to the lower 30s for any given location. The newest deterministic NBM run has keyed in on the lower end of that range. Highs are forecast in the NBM to be in the teens and mid 20s Friday, which is why the precip is only snow now. This will be something we continue to watch, either way temperatures will be near normal to end the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the 00Z period. Mid/upper level clouds will move through the region tonight and Monday. Low Level Wind Shear remains possible at some terminals Monday morning. Winds remain westerly through the period, decreasing some tonight, but increasing again on Monday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.