textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches expected along and north of the Highway 2 corridor through this evening. Accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected north and east of the Missouri River.

- Strong winds will continue through this afternoon and into early this evening. These winds will create periods of low visibilities due to falling and blowing snow.

- Low chance of another round of lightly accumulating snow in the southwest this evening through early Thursday.

- Near to below normal temperatures are expected this afternoon the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A low pressure system over the eastern Northern Plains continues to promote winter weather impacts across much North Dakota this morning. Wrap around snow is expected over the northwest and central through this afternoon and into the early evening. Periods of more moderate to heavy snowfall is anticipated across portions of central North Dakota into the northern James River Valley this morning as strong 925-850mb FG forcing overlaps an area of Q vector convergence. This overlap is most evident over the south central North Dakota. The heaviest snowfall should diminish through the late morning into the early afternoon as the FG forcing slides off to the east, though lighter snowfall will continue through the evening. Additional snow totals of 3 to 8 inches is expected north of the Hwy 2 corridor, with locally higher amounts possible especially in the Turtle Mountains area. Additional accumulation from 1 to 4 inches north and east of the Missouri River is expected through this evening. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect across the north through this evening, while a Winter Weather Advisory remains in across south central North Dakota, and for all counties North of I94 in western North Dakota.

Also for today, strong westerly winds are expected across much of western and portions of south central North Dakota this morning through this afternoon. With a moderately strong 45 to 50 knot 850mb jet lingering across the forecast area, and with CAA associated with the trailing surface trough coming off of the low pressure system slowly exiting to the east through this afternoon, wind speeds up to around 30 to 35 MPH and gusts as high as 50 to 55 MPH are anticipated. The strongest winds are expected this morning, mainly across the west and south central. With such winds, periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow should be expected north and east of the Missouri river, especially as snow is falling. Winds are anticipated to start diminishing by the mid to late afternoon as the 850mb moves off to the southeast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect along and south of the I94 corridor through this afternoon.

Chances for precpitation are expected to retreat to the east through the evening and overnight into Thursday. Around this same time, portions of the southwest are expected to be skimmed by another winter weather system passing far to the south of the forecast area. The most recent forecast cycles continue to push these chances further and further to the south with each run, with only the far southwest now expected to see evening low chances for lightly accumulating snow tonight through early Thursday. Decent FGen is again found across western North Dakota tonight through Thursday morning, though the potential for measurable precipitation is hampered by dry conditions above 1KM. Some flurries will be possible, though fairly isolate due to how thin an above surface saturated layer is expected to be.

While some light wrap-around snow showers may linger across eastern North Dakota through the day Thursday, including over the James River Valley and the Turtle Mountains area, little to no additional accumulating snow is currently expected. Elsewhere, across western and central North Dakota, mainly dry conditions are expected. With the cooler airmass becoming situated over the northern Plains, high temperatures continue to cool from near-seasonal normals in the 20s and lower 30s on Wednesday down to below normal on Thursday, with highs from the lower single digits northwest to lower 20s in the southern James River Valley. Otherwise, breezy northwest winds, with speeds around 20 to 25 MPH gusting up to 35 MPH, are anticipated Thursday, strongest across central North Dakota.

Cool and mainly dry conditions are then expected Friday through the weekend. Highs each day are broadly from the mid single digits north up to the lower to mid 20s south. Dry conditions are also expected throughout this period, though a low membership (approximately 25 percent) ensemble cluster does want to promote light, non- accumulating snow over portions of central North Dakota late Saturday into early Sunday. Looking ahead, there is moderate to strong agreement between long-term models on a developing ridge becoming established over the Great Plains. With this, a warming trend back toward near to even slightly above seasonable normals can be anticipated through the early half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A dynamic winter system will continue snow through tonight and into much of Wednesday, along with some lingering rain becoming snow in south central and southeastern portions early tonight. Ceilings across most sites with precipitation will be MVFR to IFR. Snow will continue into Wednesday morning, before diminishing from southwest to northeast Wednesday afternoon. Most TAF sites are snow free Wednesday evening, although some MVFR clouds could linger. Strong easterly winds will become strong west northwesterly winds as this system moves through, and could bring some blowing snow. Heavy snow combined with blowing snow could also bring some LIFR conditions at times tonight into Wednesday morning. Patchy blowing snow could linger through the day and evening Wednesday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NDZ001>005- 009>013. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for NDZ017>023-025-034>037-046-047-050. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ031>034-040>048-050-051.