textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are favored through the weekend, with daily highs generally in the 30s northeast to 50s southwest.

- Cooling trend expected next week, but still near to above normal temperatures favored through the middle of the week. A more active weather pattern is also favored.

UPDATE

Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

High temperatures across western and central North Dakota this afternoon mostly verified in the 50th to 75th percentile range of the NBM distribution. With no expected air mass or synoptic pattern changes, the high temperature forecast for tomorrow has been bumped up to a blend of the NBM 50th/75th percentiles. The only other changes for this update were to blend current conditions and trends into the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Currently the slight northwest flow continues across the Northern Plains, with an upper level low in Nevada. At the surface a weak low pressure center sits in northeastern South Dakota. A surface trough sits over the Red River Valley, creating low stratus clouds leftover from overnight. Other than those, North Dakota is cloudless. Cirrus clouds in the mountains of Montana have formed from the near zonal flow through the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight more patchy fog is possible with calm winds and no clouds to prohibit radiational cooling. Most CAMs are targeting the north central, so we added patchy fog to the forecast starting at 6pm through 10am. Lows tonight will be in the 20s, which is normally our highs for this time of the year.

The rest of this week northwest flow will slowly turn back into zonal flow. High temperatures through the weekend will remain in the 30s northeast to mid 50s southwest and light winds. Sunday night is when the pattern will start to change.

There is increasing confidence in a Colorado Low forming, and moving into the region Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. A trough will dig through the Southwest CONUS Monday, in turning spinning up a low pressure system when it moves over the Rocky Mountains. Strong diffluent flow will move into the state Tuesday morning, beginning our precipitation chances. With temperatures so warm, it will likely begin as rain, especially south of the Interstate. The northern half of the state could be below freezing already. As the low wraps colder air in Tuesday evening, the whole state should transition to snow. In the last 24 hours, the snow total forecast and QPF has increased greatly. Being that this is day 6 any specific snow amounts would have too much uncertainty with them. High temperatures will of course trend cooler, possibly down to the teens or 20s with lows nearing zero. Tuesday and Wednesday will also be breezy of course with the pressure gradient force in the low. Late next week the models are hinting at another system that could be similar.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions and westerly to southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts are expected through the forecast period. Patchy fog could develop in central parts of the state later tonight into Friday morning, but is not expected to impact any major terminals.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.