textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of fog tonight through Tuesday morning. Fog may become dense at times.

- Mild and dry weather with a warming trend for most areas today through Wednesday.

- Cooler Thursday and Friday with low to medium chances for rain and snow.

- Another modest warmup favored for the weekend, then cooler with increasing chances for precipitation early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1208 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Patchy fog has developed in parts of northern North Dakota. Fog at this point does not appear to be dense, but is likely to expand in coverage and may become dense at times through the night and into Tuesday morning.

UPDATE Issued at 1014 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The only changes to the forecast late this evening were to make some changes to the fog late tonight, extending it farther west and south along the Missouri River Valley. There are some indications that any fog may be transient in nature around the Turtle Mountain area, but for now left the fog alone there. Will pass it along the the overnight shift though.

UPDATE Issued at 553 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

No significant changes for the late afternoon update. High clouds continue to stream across the forecast area this afternoon with mild temperatures ranging from the upper 20s around the Turtle Mountains to the mid 50s over southwest ND. Minor tweaks to sky cover were the only changes with this update. The does look to be a pretty good signal for low stratus and/or fog later this evening and especially overnight tonight and into Tuesday morning. Best chances look to be over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Northwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains this afternoon. With high pressure slowly moving in out of the southern Canadian Prairies, mainly clear skies and calm weather is expected through this afternoon. Highs this afternoon are from the mid 30s and lower 40s across the northwest and central, mainly where snowpack remains, up to the mid 40s to mid 50s in the southwest, where the ground is generally bare.

With ample amount of near surface moisture from the melting snowpack, and with winds expected to become very light, areas of fog are expected to develop across much of northwestern and central North Dakota overnight. Across the southwest and far south central, where slightly stronger winds and lingering high clouds may persist into the early overnight period, low stratus and patchy fog can be anticipated instead. While fog is generally expected to start with the mixing of the boundary layer late Tuesday morning, it may linger across portions of central North Dakota through the early afternoon. Otherwise, for tonight, low temperatures from around 10 in the far north central up to the mid 20s southwest are expected.

Split flow is expected to develop Tuesday through Wednesday as the northern stream turns increasingly zonal, and as an upper level low deeps across the southern Great Plains. With this mainly dry and warming weather is expected through the middle of the week, with highs forecast from the mid 20s in the Turtle Mountains, up to the lower 60s in the far southwest. We wouldn't be overly surprised to see more fog develop Tuesday night into Wednesday, though confidence is lower as winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated and out of the southwest.

Flow aloft turns southwesterly late Wednesday into Thursday as a a deep Pacific trough starts to move into the Great Plains. Ensemble members continue to divorce themselves from any sort of impactful winter weather event for the forecast area on Tuesday, and now advertise a relative diffuse wave moving to the south of the forecast area. With this, chances (10 to 30 percent) for light precpitation falling as a rain/snow mix are still anticipated along and behind a cold front digging in out of the northwest. Overall QPF is expected to be limited, with only a dusting of snow anticipated across portions of south central North Dakota Thursday night through Friday morning. With this cooler airmass moving in over the forecast area, across the north drop back toward normal Thursday afternoon, though portions of the far south may remain above normal ahead of the front itself. Cooler temperatures in the 30s and 40s are then expected to linger through Friday afternoon.

Split flow is then expected to redevelop across the northern Plains this weekend as the Pacific trough is slowly absorbed into the near zonal northern stream. With this temperatures again start to warm, with well above normal highs again favored across much of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday. Looking ahead into early next week, the ensemble becomes somewhat discordant as it tries to resolves a potential shortwave wave moving in out of the eastern Canada. Cluster analysis reveals two broad scenarios. A "warm and dry" solution (50 percent of model members), favors well above normal high temperatures continuing through Tuesday as a weak ridge builds ahead and delays the aforementioned shortwave. A "cooler and wet" solution also exists (50 percent of members), which captures a faster moving shortwave that promotes cooler, yet still slightly above normals, high temperatures and chances for light rain and snow Monday into Tuesday. In either scenario, a slightly more active pattern is possible next week as flow over the northern Plains turns increasingly southwesterly. The long term CPC outlook for March 9th through the 15th leans toward slightly below normal temperatures and above normal precpitation for this period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1014 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Low stratus and fog are forecast to develop later tonight and continue into Tuesday morning.

Low clouds and some patchy fog have been noted on Nighttime Microphysics RGB over the pas hour or two across northern ND. Expect clouds to continue to thicken here through the rest of the night, and expand south. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities with the potential for areas of LIFR ceilings and visibilities. At this time it looks like northern and eastern portions of the CWA will be favored, with the southwest, including KDIK possibly escaping the low clouds and stratus. However, KDIK will be close enough that we did include a period of Lower ceilings/vsbys Tuesday morning. The other TAF sites will have a higher probability for low ceilings/vsbys for a longer duration. Latest CAMS indicate that any fog around the Turtle Mountains may be transient in nature, with a higher probability of stratus here, with fog more prevalent farther west and south.

Do expect visibilities to improve by late morning with ceilings improving from west to east in the afternoon. Winds through the TAF period will be light and variable 10kts or less through the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.