textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will continue across the southern two thirds of the state late this evening and taper off from northwest to southeast late tonight into Sunday morning.

- Strong winds will create areas of blowing snow across south central and southeast North Dakota tonight through Sunday afternoon, with near-blizzard conditions possible in the southern James River Valley.

- Well below normal temperatures through Monday, followed by a strong warming trend to well above normal through the remainder of the upcoming week.

- Low (west) to high (east) chances for mixed precipitation on Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Recent surface observations show that a wedge of very little to no snowfall has intruded the broader area of snow from around Carrington to Bismarck, and this fits with current water vapor imagery. Accumulating snow is still likely to fill back in as the upstream moisture enhancement depicted on water vapor moves back over the ongoing dry slot. But this may take a little more off the final snowfall totals for these areas. The PoP forecast has been adjusted to account for this trend, but there are no major overall changes to the forecast or messaging for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 845 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Over the last 1 to 2 hours, an increase in intensity of snowfall has been observed over parts of southwest and south central North Dakota with strong 700 mb cyclonic vorticity underneath the right entrance region of a 300 mb jet. The 700 mb vort max is forecast to sag into South Dakota, and upper level divergence should weaken to some extent as the 300 mb jet slides eastward. Therefore, expect a weakening trend in the intensity of snowfall by around 10 PM CDT, with lighter snow continuing into the overnight hours before tapering off from northwest to southeast early Sunday morning.

Another trend that has been observed throughout the day is winds not being as consistently strong as had been forecast. We did decrease the wind speed and gust forecast through this evening, but still anticipate strengthening later tonight into Sunday as the mid-latitude cyclone deepens over the Central Plains to Upper Midwest.

UPDATE Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The near-term forecast remains in good shape. The only notable adjustment for this update was to decrease PoPs in the north as snow is struggling to fall north of Highway 2, except in Williams and Divide Counties. There could still be a few hours of light snow along the Highway 2 corridor this evening before the northern edge of the snow begins to quickly push south through the night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

An upper level low continues to move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. This upper level low continues to bring snow bands along the North and South Dakota border. Majority of the snow has remained south of I-94. Another snow band is forecast to move into western North Dakota and portions of central North Dakota later this afternoon. The heaviest snow accumulations will be likely in the southern James River Valley. The 12Z HREF has lowered snow amounts in the southwest including the probability of 6 inches of snow. However the probability of 6 inches of snow remains high in the southeastern half of the state. There is a colder Arctic dry airmass keeping much of precipitation out of the Northern Half of the state leading to sharp gradient of little to no snow to decent snow accumulations. Windy conditions are anticipated to continue across the state leading to blowing snow, while the James River Valley is forecast to see greatest potential for blowing snow. Blowing snow could lead to near blizzard conditions for open areas. Snow is forecast to move out of the region early tomorrow morning with blowing snow tapering off west to east by tomorrow afternoon.

The aforementioned cold Arctic airmass will linger across the northeastern half of the state through the weekend. This will lead to low temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below zero Saturday night and Sunday night. High temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees below normal the rest of this weekend. No precipitation is anticipated until Tuesday.

An upper level ridge is forecast to move from the Western CONUS into central CONUS next week. An upper level system if forecast to round the top of the ridge next Tuesday bringing forth precipitation. There is some uncertainty with this system as it does have freezing rain across the James River Valley into the Red River Valley with a wintry mix possible. However, the timing of the main precipitation is during the day with solar insolation could keep road surface temperatures above freezing limiting impacts. If this system comes overnight it could cause issues for the morning commute.

Temperatures are forecast to warm up across the state starting west to east Tuesday. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s west and around freezing in the James River Valley. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s across the state by the end of the week with the NBM 75th percentile being above 70 for KBIS. This upper level ridge looks to stall across the western and central US into early next week leading to warm and dry conditions across the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Snow will continue across the southern two thirds of the state this evening, with prevailing IFR and temporary LIFR visibility, along with MVFR to IFR ceilings. The snow should taper off late night into early Sunday morning. Across northern North Dakota, lighter snow remains in the forecast only through this evening, but MVFR ceilings could prevail through the night and into Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected by Sunday afternoon, but with two possible exceptions: 1) blowing snow could reduce visibility at KJMS and surrounding areas and 2) there is a low chance for a band of MVFR ceilings persisting over southwest/ central North Dakota through the afternoon. Gusty winds will turn from easterly this evening to northerly tonight to northwesterly Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected in southeast North Dakota, including KJMS.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ017-018. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for NDZ019-020-035. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NDZ031>033-040- 041-043-044. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for NDZ034-042-045-046. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ036-037. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ047-048-050- 051.