textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions today and Wednesday mainly across southeast North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- Thick low-level stratus clearing in western and north central North Dakota this afternoon and evening, while remaining in south central and eastern North Dakota through the night and into Wednesday. - Seasonable high temperatures this afternoon with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions favored through most of the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Dual surface lows over northern and southern portions of the midwest are in the process of merging over the vicinity of eastern Iowa. After which, models agree that the singular circulation will then migrate northward into northern Wisconsin, and possibly retrograde to some degree into central Minnesota. The primary impact for the CWA is that this will maintain thick cloud cover and rain/drizzle chances through Wednesday across parts of the south central, and especially in the southern James River Valley of ND. For the rest of the forecast area to include western and north central North Dakota, skies will continue to clear as high pressure works into the area.

Once aforementioned surface low kicks off to the east Wednesday night, another surface surface high pressure will gradually filter in behind and pass through the state Thursday into Thursday night. Simultaneously, a ridge currently over the Rockies/High Plains will gradually slide eastward over the Northern Plains. This will result in mostly dry conditions and temperatures that remain above average through most of the week. The exception being Thursday where stated high pressure will keep conditions cooler (seasonable) along, north, and east of the Missouri River.

For Friday through this weekend, models are in fair agreement that flow aloft will become more northwesterly as the ridge flattens. While the latest NBM is currently dry; embedded shortwave energy could produce light precipitation when all is said and done. A transitory ridge could then bring the warmest temperatures of the forecast period to the western half of the state, with the NBM currently plotting some highs in the 60s on Sunday. That said, overall trends to finish this week and enter into early next week are for well above average temperatures that are only slightly warmer than this week, but increasingly above average as the calendar moves further into November.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread low-level stratus persists across most of the state, though is starting to rapidly break up over western North Dakota. Skies will continue to clear over western and north central parts of the state, however, will remain in place over much of the south central (mainly east of Highway 83) and eastern North Dakota through the period. Patchy drizzle or light rain is possible where low-level stratus continues, especially in the southern James River Valley of ND.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.