textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium chances for a line of snow showers crossing the state from west to east tonight through Wednesday morning.

- Patchy fog central overnight through mid Wednesday morning.

- Near normal temperatures Wednesday. After a brief warmup on Thursday, much colder and below normal temperatures are expected this weekend.

- Very windy conditions are possible Thursday into Thursday night, with medium to high chances for rain and snow.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow this weekend south, with low chances north.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A shallow mid level impulse is promoting scattered snow showers across portions of western and north central Dakota this morning. Snow showers are expected to continue to sink to the southeast through the morning and early afternoon. Weak forcing and a fairly shallow saturated layer will help limit overall QPF amounts, with a dusting of snow up to a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation expected overall. That being said, CAMs are advertising both steep low to mid level lapse rates and modest MUCAPE values around 100-150 J/KG across portions of central North Dakota this morning and into the early afternoon, which could allow for periods of convectively enhanced snowfall. Any quick bursts of moderate to heavy snowfall that does develop as a result would induce rapidly reducing visibilities similar to a snow squall, though these are anticipated to be both short lived for any given location. Otherwise for this morning, weak winds and a saturated near surface layer is expected to promote patchy to areas of fog across central North Dakota through the mid morning. Periods of dense fog have been briefly observed in the far south central overnight, though the areal extent has been limited to local areas so far. Will continue to monitor visibility trends through the morning. Fog is broadly expected to lift from north to south through the mid morning. Regarding temperatures today, lows from the lower teens to lower 20s are broadly expected this morning, while highs from the mid 20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest are forecast for this afternoon.

Our main weather concern in the short term is a clipper type system passing through the northern Plains Thursday morning through late Thursday night. The majority of ensemble sub- members have settled on the more northerly track of the system, which represents the greatest potential for very strong winds across much of western and central North Dakota. A strong 700mb jet with winds up to 100kts is progged to be over North Dakota on Thursday. With the passage of the clipper system, strong CAA, steep low level and mid level lapse rates, and rapid pressure rises would allow for a decent chunk of these winds to mix down to the surface. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings during this period indicates the potential for northwest winds around 40 MPH and gusts approaching 70 MPH for much of the forecast area, except perhaps the far north central. A caveat to all of this is the potential for southerly track scenario. A minority of ensemble clusters (approximately 40 percent, driven mainly by the ENS and GEPS) favor this more southerly track, which would greatly limit the potential for High Wind Warning Criteria winds to around 20%. Short term CAMs are more universally in favor of the northerly track. Considering this, we have a High Wind Watch in place for all of western and central North Dakota for the possible northwest winds around 40 MPH and gusts up to 70 MPH, starting 15Z Thursday morning through 09Z Friday morning.

Widespread precpitation is also expected to accompany this clipper system. With the northerly track in mind, much of western and central North Dakota is expected to fall under the warm sector of the low, driving high temperatures on Thursday broadly above freezing (from around 32 in the Turtle Mountains up to the lower 50s southwest and south central). Thus, a mix of rain and snow, becoming mostly rain, is expected Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. A general transition to all snow is then expected Thursday evening through Thursday night as the trailing cold front associated with the system drops in out of the northwest, though by this time mainly wrap-around precpitation is expected. With the bulk of precpitation initially falling as rain, generally light accumulations up to an inch or two at most are expected through Friday morning. Of note is the potential for blowing and drifting snow when fresh snow is falling. Despite the expectedly lower rates associated with the wrap around precipitation, the very strong winds are would promote poor visibility when and where it falls.

An active pattern will persist Friday through the weekend, with northwesterly flow allowing for a number of impulses to promote chances for precpitation. With cooler temperatures on the back end of the Thursday system, with near to slightly below seasonable highs in the mid teens northeast to lower 30s southwest, mainly snow is expected through this period. Ensemble members remain evenly split between a snowier scenario, with snow totals approaching 4 to 6 inches across much of western and central North Dakota by Sunday, and a less snowy scenario, with totals around 1 to 3 inches for the same period. High snow totals could be anticipated in the southwest. The difference stems from the difference in how each cluster resolves a slightly more potent trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday through early Sunday, with the heavier snowfall associated with a deeper and slower trough. That is all to say, confidence on the evolution of this system remains lower at this time. As it stands, the calibrated NBM 5.0 probability to exceed 4 inches of snowfall Friday through Sunday is low (15 to 35 percent) across the northwest and central, and medium (35 to 55 percent) across the southwest. What we can anticipate is a warming trend through early to mid next week, as there is strong ensemble agreement on a broad ridging moving over the northern Plains through this period. With this, above normal high temperatures are favored through the first half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low stratus and fog is expected to develop over much of central North Dakota overnight, with patchy ground fog already starting to develop in the southwest at the start of the TAF period. With this, MVFR visibilities are possible where fog develops, and MVFR to IFR ceilings are broadly expected at KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS through at least the morning. Fog should generally lift from northwest to southwest through the mid morning, while MVFR ceilings may linger through the early afternoon.

Snow showers and MVFR ceilings are moving across northwestern and north central North Dakota this morning. These ceilings and showers are expected slide to the southeast through the early afternoon, before exiting into southeastern North Dakota. Have introduced PROB30 groups for light snow, mist, 4SM visibility, and MVFR to IFR ceilings at all TAF sites except KXWA as these showers pass through.

Light and variable winds through tonight will become westerly around 10-15 kts on Wednesday, with some higher afternoon gusts in southwest North Dakota. Winds will then diminish through the evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046. High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050- 051.