textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through Friday, then are favored to trend cooler this weekend.

- Strong west to northwest winds are forecast on Thursday and Friday.

- Medium to high (40 to 70%) chance for accumulating snow across southwest and south central North Dakota Friday night into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Main forecast update was to sky cover, based on latest imagery and trends. Also opted to add in fog for tonight around the Turtle Mountain region, with CAMs all indicating such. All other forecast elements were on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

This afternoon, broad cyclonic flow characterized the synoptic pattern across much of the CONUS, including the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure was centered to our east over Minnesota, while a warm front extended north-south across western North Dakota from a low analyzed in central Saskatchewan. Low stratus had been pretty persistent through the day ahead of the front, but satellite imagery shows the diminishment of lower clouds, with some additional mid-level clouds moving in from the southern Canadian Prairies. Behind the front, winds are shifting from southerly to northwesterly, and becoming breezy as the pressure gradient tightens and winds mix out more. Highs this afternoon will range from the teens in the nroth central to the upper 40s in the southwest.

Overnight lows tonight will be much more mild than what we've seen lately as low-level warm air advection associated with the front continues to spread across the state, keeping temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s. Thursday is forecast to be the mildest day until potentially next week, with highs mainly from 40 to 50, although slightly colder in the Turtle Mountains area. We also see a return of strong west winds, with gusts to 40 mph across western North Dakota.

Friday we begin to see some changes as an embedded shortwave and attendant cold front move, bringing continued strong winds and increasing chances for snow. The EFI highlights northeast North Dakota for the highest wind potential, but still could see wind gusts up to 45 mph in our eastern counties from the combination of modest pressure rises and low-level cold air advection as the front rolls through. Locations across northern North Dakota will likely see their high temperatures early in the day before colder air filters in.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance are all in agreement on a band of frontogenesis oriented generally northwest-southeast and progressing across southern North Dakota Friday night into Saturday. NBM probabilities continue to highlight southwest North Dakota as a likely area to see accumulating snow, with a 50 percent or higher chance for measurable snow in a line from Williston to Oakes and south. The latest probabilities also highlight low but non-zero probabilities for warning level snow amounts across parts of southern North Dakota, which does align with a banded snowfall scenario. With snow ratios expected to be above 10:1, a look at QPF amounts helps illustrate snowfall potential with the upcoming system. Three of four ensemble clusters give a broadly medium chance for at least 0.20 inches of QPF with this system, which would produce a general 3 to 4 inches of snow. The location and axis of these probabilities shifts around a bit, with 60 percent of ensemble members favoring the southwest while a minority cluster brings the main axis of precipitation over the south central. With more mesoscale forcing compared to synoptic, predictability is a bit lower with this system, which makes banded snow events tricky to forecast. Will have to see how things trend over the next day or two, to have a better idea of any potentially higher snow amounts and whether or not that will warrant headlines of some kind.

Temperatures bottom out on Saturday, with highs ranging from the teens north and east to the mid 20s southwest. Light snow chances linger through Saturday and into Sunday, but would not expect much, if any, additional accumulation from this activity. NBM percentiles indicate a warming trend heading into the first half of next week as upper flow starts to flatten. By the middle of the week, spread in potential temperatures becomes quite large as ensemble members are advertising a variety of solutions, although the 25th percentile are still near normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected all terminals through the 00Z period. Southerly winds will be turning westerly as a warm front moves through the forecast area this evening, with gusty winds expected during the day Thursday. Low level wind shear will be possible, though weather models have backed off some on this so did not include in the 00Z TAFs this issuance.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.