textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures near to a little below average for the next several days.

- Mostly dry through Sunday, then chances for rain and snow Sunday night through Tuesday night. Light snow accumulations are possible Monday into Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

High pressure will continue filtering into the forecast area today into tonight. As a result, winds will continue to diminish this afternoon while skies have become mostly sunny. Highs should reach the mid 40s to mid 50s. For tonight, clear skies with light and variable winds are expected at most locations through most of the night, though some cloud cover may filter in mainly along and south of I94. Currently, NBM lows are mostly in the 20s with some low 30s where cloud cover is forecast. However, could see temperatures becoming even colder in areas where skies do in fact remain clear and winds become light and variable.

For Sunday into Sunday night, surface high reorganizes more in south central Canada. This should bring increasing cloud cover to southern parts of the state where moisture begins to advect in, while the north remains under the influence of high pressure. As such, light precipitation is possible near the ND/SD border on Sunday, and mainly south of the I94 corridor Sunday night. Any precipitation Sunday should be in the form of rain, though a little light snow could mix in Sunday night.

Monday is when things become more interesting as aforementioned surface high pressure slides more towards Ontario and even moister air advects into the Dakotas. Simultaneously, models are in fair agreement that upper low pressure will develop over the Northern Plains, with South Dakota being the favored location for the center. This could produce liquid equivalent precipitation in excess of a quarter inch mainly south of I94. The key term there being liquid equivalent. There remains plenty of uncertainty such as timing and thermal profiles. However, a few models indicate the potential for accumulating snow Monday into Monday night. Lows Monday morning in the 20s and low 30s could cool the surface enough to make accumulating snow a little easier. Furthermore, enhanced snowfall rates could overcome warm surfaces anyways. That said, a solution that maintains mostly rain over the area is possible as well. The NBM ensemble is producing a greater than 80 percent chance of an inch or more of snow mainly south of I94 from Richardton to Medina, though this includes both the daytime Monday and Monday night. These probabilities may be a little high overall given warmer soils and the time of day for this time of year, but they certainly highlight the potential that exists for this season's first snowfall.

Beyond Monday night, periodic precipitation chances are within the forecast. At this time, these chances are mostly in the form of rain as highs Tuesday are mostly in the 40s, then the mid 40s to mid 50s through the rest of the week. Still, with lows in the 20s and 30s, depending on timing and location, a little snow could mix in at times as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Westerly winds will remain breezy to windy during the early afternoon for much of the area. These winds should diminish later this afternoon, becoming light and often variable tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.