textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures through the first half of this week, with near-record highs around 90 to 95 today and Tuesday.

- Dry weather today, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday night, followed by better chances for precipitation later this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Currently, quasi-zonal/west-northwest flow aloft with a low- amplitude mid level ridge anchored across the Rocky Mountains. Mostly clear this morning with upper level clouds pushing south into the region from Canada.

Large area of upper level low pressure sliding south-southeast along the eastern Pacific/west coastal region early this week will result in the aforementioned ridge to our west amplifying today into Tuesday and developing east into the Northern Plains. Increasing southerly low/mid level flow will trend temperatures warmer to start the week, with highs today through Wednesday forecast in the mid 80s to mid 90s, near record values for some locations.

This flow pattern will support a nocturnal low level jet each night through the middle of the week, resulting in possible nighttime elevated convection. Various CAMs show activity each night (including tonight), while the NBM keeps tonight dry but does have chances Tuesday night. Models do show elevated instability as well, so will be something worth monitoring.

The upper low moves inland as it digs into the Desert Southwest through Wednesday, strengthening a lee-side surface low to our west and resulting in breezy south/southeasterly winds Tuesday through Thursday. This will increase fire weather concerns across the west (where HRB/fuel moisture is lowest). Will continue to mention in the HWO.

Thereafter, ensembles continue to favor the upper ridge gradually weakening/displaced east as the western CONUS low slowly shifts east/morphs into a trough and lifts north. This pattern will favor a cooling trend and increasing chances for precipitation, and the latest NBM shows these trends well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions expected through the 06Z forecast period. A mix of mid to high clouds through the TAF period. A light southerly to westerly wind will also be found through much of the forecast period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.