textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures continue tonight, with scattered rain and snow showers through this evening.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Sunday through Wednesday along with a rapid warming trend.

- Active weather pattern is then favored Wednesday evening through the end of next week, along with a cooling trend into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Limited updates needed early this evening. Radar showing a few scattered rain and snow showers moving across the state with a weak wave and favorable jet streak. These showers could continue through the evening with limited precipitation impacts. A few showers have brought some gusts in excess of 40 mph, which may also continue into this evening. Otherwise look for cloudy skies this evening becoming partly cloudy overnight. Lows tonight will remain cool and generally in the upper teens to the 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Currently, the area remains under the influence of an upper level low positioned over Ontario that will lift northeast through the weekend. This is resulting in continuous northwesterly flow aloft. Simultaneously, surface low over eastern Ontario will also lift northeast while high pressure filters into North Dakota later tonight and into Sunday morning. With enhanced low to mid-level moisture, shortwave energy off said upper low, and forcing off the left exit region of an incoming jet streak; isolated to scattered rain and snow showers are expected to develop this afternoon before dissipating this evening.

As the aforementioned surface low continues lifting northeast, the surface gradient will continue loosening. Therefore, don't expect much in the way of gradient winds this afternoon. However, model forecast soundings suggest a good mixing day, which has already resulted in sustained northwesterly winds of 20 to 25 mph for most locations along with gusts up to 35 mph. More so, these soundings maintain a relatively shallow inverted V profile, which will likely result in brief, yet very windy conditions with any showers that do pass through an area this afternoon and early evening.

Once any showers dissipate this evening, said incoming high pressure will result in light winds and clearing skies. As such, another chilly night for this time of year is on tap with temperatures dropping into the 20s. Locations with the best radiational cooling may even see readings drop into the teens. For next week, a transitory ridge is expected to pass from the western CONUS through the Plains states during the first half of the week. This will result in mostly dry conditions and a significant warming trend Sunday through Wednesday, with highs Wednesday mostly in the mid 70s to low 80s. That said, NBM forecast highs are below the 25th percentile, therefore the potential exists for temperatures to overperform.

Models are then pegging the potential for a more active pattern to finish out the week. Machine learning models are already highlighting low severe weather probabilities late Wednesday afternoon or evening, and Thursday as well to a lesser extent. However, with relatively low boundary layer dewpoints forecast for the Northern Plains, it seems the highest probabilities will remain well southeast of the state where much more abundant moisture will be present. Nevertheless, it's something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Scattered rain and snow showers may be found through this evening, although confidence was only high enough to place in some PROB30 groups at medium confidence TAF sites. Cloudy skies will also prevail this evening, with low VFR ceilings forecast. Tonight, showers will dissipate although some FEW to SCT MVFR to low VFR ceilings may be found at times. Clearing skies and VFR conditions are then expected for Sunday. Breezy northwest winds this evening will become light and variable tonight into Sunday morning. These light winds will then become southerly Sunday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.