textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures will generally continue through the middle of the week, with highs Wednesday more seasonable in the east. - Light rain/snow chances return Tuesday afternoon with higher chances Thursday evening through Friday morning. Those highest chances (60 percent) are along and east of Highway 83.

- Becoming windy tonight through Tuesday. Then very windy Thursday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 934 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Updated sky cover based on latest satellite imagery and trends. No other major changes to the forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 553 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Embedded S/WV impulse in northwest flow aloft will move southeast from far south central Canada across the Northern Plains tonight, dragging a surface cold front south across central and eastern parts of the region through Tuesday morning. Radar returns associated with this wave across southeast Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, moving east-southeast ahead of the impulse and cold FROPA. Opted to expand POPs a bit based on latest radar imagery and trends, to include more of north central ND this evening. Precip type should remain liquid, as the stronger CAA doesn't arrive till overnight into Tue daytime morning, and temperatures expected to remain above freezing this evening. Winds will remain breezy to windy from the west- northwest through tonight, with some unidirectionally driven wind gusts.

Main update with this forecast product issuance was to POPs and sky cover, with minimal edits to other weather elements.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Currently west/northwest flow is across the Northern Plains around an area of higher heights over northern California. At the surface a stronger low pressure sits in central Canada, and will move through southern Canada to the Great Lakes Tuesday. The west surface winds today are bringing the warming Chinook winds off the Mountains in Montana. Record high temperatures are in the low to mid 50s today with our forecast highs nearing 50.

Tonight that low pressure system will start to slide towards the Great Lakes, tightening the pressure gradient across the state with a surface high pressure in Wyoming. With the timing of the tight pressure gradient ahead of the backdoor cold front Tuesday evening, wind gusts should generally remain sub- advisory level. Record high low temperatures are possible for Tuesday with this warm Chinook flow. Those are low temperatures that don't drop as far. In southwest North Dakota where the high and low pressure collide, there is a chance of rain Tuesday morning. When the cold front moves through Tuesday evening there will then be a chance of a rain snow mix in the central and southeast. Tuesday will again be well above normal, and the winds will peak around 2pm CT and then start to die down.

Wednesday a surface high pressure slides into the state under northerly flow around the same northern California high. With this northern flow, cooler temperatures will be present, especially in the James River Valley. The west will be in the low 40s and the east in the low 20s, still above normal generally. Thursday another Clipper system will pass by, this time with much higher snow chances. There is roughly a 60 percent chance of snow east of Highway 83 Thursday into Friday, although accumulations will be less than 1 inch. Winds will also be much stronger with the pressure gradient. There will likely need to be a Wind Advisory Thursday morning through most of Friday. A push of cold air will continue feeding the winds through Friday. A much stronger push of colder air will move in. There is uncertainty with this as different models have us on the warm or cold side of the northern flow. Right now, the NBM has been keeping us in the colder side, leaving us with highs in the 20s. Although the temperature spreads are almost 30 degrees still.

Through the weekend the northern flow will continue through the weekend. Warmer 850mb will slide back late Saturday, and temperatures will warm back close to 30.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 553 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility expected tonight through Tuesday morning. Low level wind shear at all terminals through Tuesday morning, with winds then increasing through the period, gusting upwards to 35kts. Cold front retrogrades westward during the day Tuesday, with an area of MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings developing southwestward into central North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.