textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today, but windy with temperatures remaining below average.

- Below average temperatures favored to continue through the work week, then warming to near or above average for the weekend.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light snow at times mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The Northern Plains lie under a transient ridge embedded in northwest flow aloft early this morning. Low level warm air advection underneath the ridge is promoting slowly rising temperatures through the normal peak-cooling cycle, but also southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph. This is keeping wind chills mostly in the teens below west to 20s and 30s below central. We have ended the Cold Weather Advisory for the 4 northwest counties, as well as McKenzie to Oliver where wind chills are now well out of criteria and confidence is high in a continued warming trend. The rest of the Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM CST.

An upper level low over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early this morning will dig into the Upper Mississippi River Valley/western Great Lakes region later today. The attendant cold front, which is still back across central Saskatchewan, is forecast to cross North Dakota from northwest to southeast around mid morning through early afternoon. The preceding warm air advection should scour out most of the lingering Arctic air mass prior to the arrival of the cold front, and the less intense Arctic air trailing the cold front is not expected to arrive until later this evening through tonight. This sets us up for a much warmer day today, but with high temperatures still below normal from around 10 above across the north to near 25 in the far southwest. We are also expecting windy conditions with and trailing the frontal passage. Modest magnitudes of cold air advection and only weak pressure rises are not exceptionally favorable for maximum momentum transfer of mean boundary layer winds, and soundings have been consistently showing around 25 to 35 kts of mixing potential. However, there is forecast to be an areal overlap of stronger mean 900-800 mb winds around 40 to 45 kts with steep low level lapse rates in the northern James River Valley and adjacent areas to the west this afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Wells, Foster, Stutsman, Kidder, and Logan Counties for sustained northwest winds around 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph, in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM CST. Expecting wind to be just a touch lighter elsewhere, with sustained around 20 to 30 mph and gusts to around 40 mph. Lastly for today, there is a very low chance (less than 10 percent) for a band of flurries trailing the cold front from north central North Dakota through the James River Valley, but it is too low of a probability for little to no impacts to mention in any other forecast products at this time.

As mentioned above, another Arctic air mass, albeit less intense than the one we just experienced, will intrude the Northern Plains tonight into Tuesday, with the westward push of the baroclinic zone stalling near the southwest corner of the state. Lows tonight are once again forecast to fall below zero, with teens below across northern parts of the state where another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for wind chills as low as 30 to 35 below. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to climb above zero in the northeast, but could still exceed 20 in the far southwest which is mostly expected to be spared from this bout of Arctic air. By Tuesday evening we start to see an eastward shift in the baroclinic zone as the coldest air pivots toward the western Great Lakes. This trend continues into Wednesday as the baroclinic zone becomes aligned with a surface ridge axis. Still only anticipating Wednesday to be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday at most, but there is now much higher confidence in dry weather prevailing through the middle of the week.

From late Wednesday through Friday, a series of upper level circulations within a broad, deep trough from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes is forecast to undergo a Fujiwara Effect. Ensembles show strong agreement that this will force a more potent vort max southwest of Hudson Bay and evolve into a progressive trough that maintains a southwestward motion through the Upper Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. Prior to its arrival, there is also agreement in a shortwave ejecting eastward off the Northern Rockies before being shunted to the south by the stronger trough coming down from Canada. Western North Dakota could still be in the outer reaches of forcing attendant to the Northern Rockies shortwave, which brings a 20 percent chance of light snow into the forecast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The approaching Canadian trough looks to usher another strong surface high into the Northern Plains late Thursday into Friday, along with the western periphery of an oblong Arctic air mass that stretches all the way to New England. This provides forecast confidence in a continuation of below normal temperatures through the end of the work week. The NBM high temperature distribution on Friday is still large, but its entirety continues to shift in a colder direction compared to previous forecasts. Hazardous wind chills could also return to the eastern half of the state Thursday night into Friday morning. The NBM reintroduces a 20 to 30 percent chance of light snow across the western half of the state late Thursday into Friday as the southwestward progression of the Canadian trough tightens the baroclinic zone under the right entrance region of an upper jet streak.

Temperature spread remains large on Saturday, but there is a distinct shift to a warmer solution as ensembles favor a transient upper level ridge axis with positive tilt late Friday into Saturday. There is also ensemble support for a clipper system following the ridge, but with timing and placement uncertainty of any precipitation chances, along with wave amplitude uncertainty. The NBM does bring a swath of 20 to 30 percent PoPs across the state on Saturday. Ensemble clusters tend to maintain a broad anticyclonic northwest flow on Sunday followed by a transition to a more active northwest flow pattern, but deterministic guidance suggests it could end up being more of a chaotic wave pattern with high phasing uncertainty as soon as Sunday. Regardless, the NBM shows reasonably high confidence given the forecast time range in near to above normal temperatures for the first week of February, and there is strong support for this from extended ensemble 850 mb temperature anomalies.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected early this morning at all TAF sites. A cold front moving southeast through the State later this morning and afternoon will bring the potential for a brief period of MVFR ceilings along the cold front as it pushes through the state, impacting all TAF sites. However, at this time it appears KMOT will have the highest probability for MVFR ceilings lasting long enough to include in the TAF. Any precip is currently expected to remain east of the forecast area. Breezy southwest winds this morning will shift to the northwest later this morning into the afternoon and increase to 15 to 30 kts with some higher gusts possible. All TAF sites will experience LLWS this morning, with strong winds aloft.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this evening for NDZ023-025-036-037-047.