textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain or snow showers this evening, mainly west and north central. Breezy to windy early this evening, with winds decreasing through this evening.

- Medium to high chances for another round of rain and possibly some wet snow Sunday into Monday.

- Below average temperatures continue through the weekend, and likely through the upcoming work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Modified POPs based on latest radar and trends, maintaining chances this evening, ending by midnight/early Saturday morning. Wouldn't rule out some linger light showers past 06Z, but for now will leave out of the forecast. Will allow the Wind Advisory to expire on time at 00Z (7pm CDT). Might see a few higher gusts over 40 mph, but for the most part winds have tapered off to below advisory criteria magnitudes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Currently, scattered to numerous show showers were located over northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota. Isolated to scattered snow showers were pushing into north central ND. Webcams at Portal and Columbus were showing some very light accumulation in the grass. Visibilities at the Williston have dropped as low as 2.5 miles, with some visibilities at or below a mile over portions of northeast Montana. Winds have been sustained at 30 to 35 mph over a good portion of the Advisory areas with several gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Stanley reported a gust to 52 mph. Winds have not been quiet as strong from Minot into the Turtle Mountains area, but forecast soundings indicate strongest gust potential there will be late afternoon into early evening. Overall, the Wind Advisory looks good and have messaged period of lower vsbys in snow showers in the Hazard product.

For tonight, guidance is not really depicting much for shower activity, and this may be okay, but hesitant to drop pops completely. We started from some more widespread showers this afternoon and tapered them down to our given guidance by mid evening. By mid-evening this leaves some slight chance pops in the far south central and in the northwest. There are some light reflectivities tracking from western into central South Dakota at this time, but not overly optimistic about measurable precip lifting north across the border tonight. Will leave this in for now though. Also think snow showers may linger in the northwest-north central longer than guidance suggests so we did add some light chance pops here through late evening.

Winds will also diminish this evening. One are of possible concern early this evening will be the north central, around the Turtle Mountains. Bufkit sounding still indicate strong winds a the top of the boundary layer. With scattered shower activity moving in, it's possible stronger winds could linger into the early evening. The current Wind Advisory goes through 7 PM. Will pass along to the evening shift.

Saturday will be similar temperature wise across the area with coldest temperatures in the northwest. Afternoon humidities dropping into the lower 20s to lower 30s. Winds will be much lighter than yesterday and today. There may be an area though over central into north central ND, were the lower humdities overlap with some sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph, which may necessitate a mention of near critical fire weather conditions. Will let later shifts monitor as it will be a limited area of marginal concern.

The next area of concern will be the system moving into the area Sunday through Monday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty remaining as to who will, or perhaps more importantly, will not see precipitation Sunday through Monday. A look at the cluster analysis clears some thing up while others remain muddled.

First: The James River Valley and eastward into eastern ND looks to be the most likely area to see precipitation, and significant precipitation at that. Our current NBM guidance show a high probability of 24 hour qpf of more than a half inch ending at 18Z Monday, across the entire James River Valley (with a medium probability of over an inch across a good portion of the JRV). The probabilities of a half inch or more taper to medium (40 to 70%) from southwest to the Turtle Mountains area, and low across northwest ND.

Second: There are two main solutions, similar to yesterday, an stronger and farther north solution and a weaker, farther south solution. All would bring significant qpf to the James River Valley, as noted above. There is also a scenario where we see little if any qpf over the northwest quarter of the state. The interesting part of this cluster analysis is that of the 4 separate clusters, three of the four are dominated by a separate core, with the final cluster a leftover (less than 15 percent probability) of each of the clusters. So, is this really a cluster analysis.

Finally: There is enough could air that we could see a little light snow on the back side of this system Sunday night into Monday. At this time, the snow amounts would be light, below advisory level and in grassy surfaces.

We then dry out with a slow warm-up through mid to late week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Scattered rain or snow showers will continue for a few hours this evening, mainly over northwest and north central areas of North Dakota. Some light snow could cause brief visibility reductions to IFR. Precipitation dissipates this evening and winds decrease, with mainly VFR conditions through the remainder of the 00Z period. Westerly winds will again be on the increase during the day Saturday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.