textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures through the rest of the week over most locations. Possible record setting, especially over western and southern locations.

- Dry through remainder of work week, with precipitation chances returning Saturday/Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Generally clear conditions are found across the forecast area this afternoon. Patchy fog from earlier this morning has all be lifted by this time. Winds have started to pick up across the west as a moderately strong mid level jet has started to move over. As we start to fully mix out later this afternoon, gusty winds sustained up to 25 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH are anticipated this afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 905 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Pockets of patchy fog linger over portions of northwestern and central North Dakota, though should begin to lift as we head into the late morning. Otherwise, mainly clear and dry conditions are expected through the day today. Regarding winds, a moderately strong mid level jet expected over western North Dakota this afternoon, with HREF values around 35 to 40kts up to 750mb. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings later this morning and afternoon reveals strong low to mid level lapse rates (8.5 to 9 degC/KM) across western and much of central North Dakota during this time, allowing us to be almost fully mixed out up to the 75mb level. Thus have opted to slightly increase winds for today, with sustained speeds peaking around 20 to 25 MPH and gusting up to 35 to 40 MPH this afternoon across the west. Have also tweaked the sky grids to account for the latest upstream satellite and model trends with this update. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Forecast remains in good shape with some patches of fog noted on observations and satellite over central North Dakota into the James River Valley. Expect these to diminish later this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the Canadian Rockies with trough dipping into the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places broad high over the desert southwest, resulting in broad ridging throughout the western CONUS. Over our area, low level moisture along and ahead of the aforementioned trough is resulting in some patchy fog, while temperatures remain quite mild.

For today, very warm temperatures are expected over most of the area thanks to broad thermal ridge over the western CONUS and broad downslope flow. Multiple temperature records are in jeopardy as highs climb into the 60s and 70s over much of our area, about 25 to 30 degrees above average. The exception to the really warm temperatures will be over far north central North Dakota around the Turtle Mountains where snow cover remains keeping temperatures notably cooler, though still above average. Along with the toasty temperatures is dry conditions, most notably over southwest into parts of west central North Dakota where dewpoints have been lowered below NBM closer to latest RAP/HRRR values. Minimum humidity values in the upper teens to mid 20s will combine with a westerly breeze to bring near critical fire weather conditions. The toasty temperatures continue through Friday.

On Saturday, cooler air starts to work its way into the area as a broad Pacific trough busts through the top of the ridge and a cold front starts to push in. With the timing of the cooler air arrival, still expect much of western and south central North Dakota to be quite mild, but over north central North Dakota, notably cooler temperatures are possible but in question as NBM spreads are quite high (example would be Rugby where the 25th/75th percentile spread ranges from 38 to 55 degrees). With the presence of the trough, low precipitation chances show up over northern parts of the area Saturday (snow over colder areas/rain over warmer). Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) spread through the area overnight, with chances transitioning towards snow through the night as the cooler air pushes in.

On Sunday, cooler air settles in with temperatures near to possibly even a tad below average with drier conditions. Warming and continued dry conditions are expected Monday into the day on Tuesday. Late Tuesday through Wednesday bring precipitation chances to the area. Question still exists as to the timing of the thermal ridge building in and the trough breaking it down, as reflected in rather broad NBM temperature spreads throughout our area (about a 20 to 25 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile). Therefore, confidence in high temperatures forecast is rather low. Cooldown then expected to end the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is mainly expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Patchy fog and MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop tonight through Thursday morning in the north central and eastern North Dakota where melting snowpack can be found. Have added MVFR ceilings to KJMS, though confidence is too low to include visibility reductions due to fog at this time. Gusty west winds are expected through this afternoon, with sustained speeds up to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds should diminish through the evening, becoming light and variable overnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.