textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong west/southwest winds today, with gusts to around 55 mph over northwest and north central North Dakota.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon through early this evening across much of western and portions of central North Dakota. Conditions improve towards sunset.

- Dry today then periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into the weekend. Best chance for widespread showers and storms will be later in the day Wednesday through Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Currently, deep mid level/sfc low over far south central Canada, results in strong westerly flow across the Northern Plains. Associated wrap around moisture rotating through far northern North Dakota, with most cloud cover and showers north of the International Border area. Mostly sunny elsewhere with winds tapering as you go farther to the south. Most observation sites within the Wind Advisory have seen below warning criteria peak winds, though there have been a few gusts to around 60 mph the past few hours. Have 55 mph as a peak wind mentioned in the advisory, and we've opted for no changes to headlines with the vast majority of sites in the 50-55 mph range for peak gusts.

Near-critical fire weather conditions also continue this afternoon, especially west, where the gusty winds are combining with percent RH values in the 20s. Conditions will quickly improve after 00Z as the strong winds subside.

Mid level low continues east into Ontario tonight, with a mid level ridge rebuilding into the Rockies and a sfc high developing into the Northern Plains for Tue. Similar daytime temperatures tomorrow as we are having today, though with much less wind. Mid level wave lifting out of the Southern Rockies and into the Central Plains tonight, will bring increasing clouds across the Dakotas Tuesday. Majority of precipitation associated with this wave is expected to remain to our south Tuesday night.

For the rest of this week and upcoming weekend, the CONUS weather pattern will have upper level ridging just east of the Great Plains while a large area of upper level low pressure/long wave troughing develops west of the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft results for the Northern Plains, with continued southerly mid level WAA into the Dakotas from the middle of this week into the first half of next weekend. Temperatures peak Friday and Saturday, when daytime highs are forecast well into the 80s to mid 90s. Will see moisture advection as well with sfc dewpoints increasing. However, with the heat and despite this increase in Td's, minimum percent RH values will drop well into the 20s to possibly mid teens Thu and Fri over west central and southwestern areas of ND. Right now winds are not expected to be that strong, so fire weather concerns remain uncertain at this time.

Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms under this flow pattern mid-week into the weekend. Currently it is looking like our best chances for widespread precipitation will be later on Wed through Wed night when diffluent flow aloft overspreads our region along with a frontal passage. More uncertainty thereafter.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18Z TAF period. A few light showers or low VFR ceilings far north this afternoon, staying well north of KXWA and KMOT. Strong west/southwesterly winds through this afternoon, diminishing this evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>019-022-055>058.