textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend with dangerous wind chills northwest and parts of north central tonight through Saturday morning.

- Temperatures will moderate early next week with precipitation chances by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

No changes needed to the going forecast. Wind chills are hovering around 30 below zero in the Advisory area.

UPDATE Issued at 1006 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Quiet weather remains over the area with some passing clouds. Main concern continues to be the frigid wind chill values that are still on tap for northern locations.

UPDATE Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A few flurries remain over parts of western and central North Dakota, but these have been tapering off over the past hour or so. Expect this trend to continue going into the evening. Otherwise, a quiet and cold night remains on tap.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The upper level low that brought snow a few days ago is retrograding northwestward into Manitoba. An upper level shortwave is currently digging across the western have of the state enhanced by the upper low, thus has lead to light snow and flurries across the west. Snow flurries are forecast to tapper off this evening. Surface high pressure is forecast to move over southern Saskatchewan tonight leading to cold low temperatures. In addition clearing skies will help enhance radiational cooling tonight. Thus temperatures were lowered to the NBM 50th. Light winds and cold temperatures will lead to around -32 wind chills across portions of the northwest and north central tonight through tomorrow morning.

Temperatures are forecast to remain cool through the weekend with high temperatures ranging from 5 to 15 degrees while the southwest could warm into the 20s. Another shortwave is forecast to move through the southwest Saturday, but the ensembles and CAMs have lower precipitation chances. Temperatures are forecast to warm up across the southwest into the 50s while the remainder of the state will sit in the 20 to 30s. The pattern will shift to northwesterly flow with ridging out west. There is going to be a battle of two airmass with the colder airmass keeping the northeast cold while the southwest will remain warm due to ridging out West. The uncertainty is where is the gradient for these temperatures going to set up. Depending on what side of the gradient you are on will determine if you are colder or warmer. Precipitation chances are forecast to return midweek with some chances for snow. A ridge will likely be favored to build eastward by the end of next week favoring warmer temperatures. NBM 25th is warmer than normal temperatures for next week thus giving us confidence on a warming pattern.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, although there are patches of MVFR ceilings over northwest and central ND that could briefly impact TAF sites overnight. Mostly VFR conditions are expected Sunday. Areas of low VFR to MVFR could impact eastern portions of central ND, including KJMS later in the day Saturday into Saturday evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for NDZ001>003- 009>011.