textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- The highest snow accumulations tonight through Wednesday night of 5 to 10 inches is expected along and north of Highway 2, with locally higher amounts possible along the International Border. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected north and east of the Missouri River.

- Strong winds will continue through Wednesday, these winds will create periods of low visibilities in falling snow. Patchy blowing snow is also possible.

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected across portions of southwest and south central North Dakota late Wednesday through late Thursday.

- A rapid drop from above normal high temperatures down to near below normal temperatures Wednesday through the weekend is expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Limited updates needed late this evening. Strong northwest winds have been found in the southwest, with Dickinson gusting over 50 mph during the initial front push. Blended in NBM90th winds to account for slightly stronger winds. This could result in some isolated High Wind Warning gusts near 60 mph. For now increased wind gusts to 55 MPH in the western portions of the Wind Advisory. These same areas could see snow and blowing snow from these areas, although snowfall should be limited. Added mention of this in the Wind Advisory. Meanwhile, mostly snow is being found west and north, with some rain lingering central and east, and limited freezing rain. For now current winter highlights seem to be covering the event well. Some consideration to expanding the Winter Storm Warning south a tier of counties was considered given some signs of increase snow totals and higher impacts from blowing snow. Confidence was not high enough at this update, but something to monitor tonight. Anyone with travel plans tonight ton Wednesday morning should check the latest road and weather conditions before traveling.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Wind Advisory slated to drop at 6 PM CST across the northwest has been allowed to expire as winds are expected to be sub advisory through the night. Surface low starting to kick out of southeastern Montana with precipitation slowly getting organized. Isolated thunderstorms are also starting to develop in south central and southeastern portions and may linger into the early evening hours. Snow is still expected to develop across the north this evening, although some freezing rain has been reported during the onset of precipitation or during the change over to snow. Added in a slight chance of freezing rain for northern and some western areas during this transition to snow this evening. Have also added some slight chances for thunder to areas in the SPC's general risk through the early evening hours. The chances for severe weather remain low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently a large trough around an upper level low in Washington State is present, with diffluent flow over the Northern Plains. In the trough there is a negatively tilted trough axis swinging through the Central Plains right now. Downstream in southern Canada is a small ridge. At the surface a double low pressure center is in eastern Montana and southern South Dakota. There are returns across most of the state on radar but cloud bases are currently too high for rain to reach the ground. Winds are remaining very strong, with gust around 50 mph in the northwest. Winds are out of the east with the low pressure center just slightly southwest of the state and driven by the pressure gradient force.

Through this evening rain showers will start to move into the state from the south, and the strong winds will continue. There is actually some uncertainty in the rain snow line as the CAMs this morning shifted the snow more southeast. This is likely due to that upper level trough axis swinging up and timed with the cooler air. As of now, the transition to snow looks to be around 7pm in the north central as surface temperatures drop after sunset, and precipitation cooling effect. The rest of the area looks to transition to snow closer to midnight central time when the cold air on the backside slides in. This will also maintain the strong winds as the CAA and a pressure bubble continues to support wind gusts near 50mph. As of now model soundings do not support needing a High Wind Warning in the southwest, but something to keep an eye on this evening. The southwest will have the strongest CAA and highest pressure bubble. Snow will then continue through most of Wednesday, with patchy blowing snow possible as well.

We have multiple headlines out; Winter Storm Warning across the north, Winter Weather Advisory south of that, and then Wind Advisory across the south. It is possible that the Warning will need to be expanding into the far northern James River Valley if the snow shifts again, or the timing of the rain/snow changes to earlier in the evening.

Snow amounts, like stated above, are hanging on the fact that there is uncertainty in the rain/snow line and the possible more shifts of snow. The majority of the snow will fall and accumulated north and east of the Missouri River, with the highest amounts in the north central and northeast parts of the state. Strong Fgen will enhance the snowfall in the north central to James River Valley area, this could very well boost snowfall totals in these areas. Q-vector divergence also lines up with this Fgen. This goes back to the previous statement of the Warning possibly needing to be expanded south.

Our current forecast for the 25th/75th totals in the north are 5 to 10 inches, increasing to maybe 12 inches closer to Langdon, ND. South of that is about 1 to 3 inches, and far southern ND around a trace. Again, we are starting to see a trend towards more snow and a shift to the south and east. Continue to monitor our forecast and social media to watch this as it evolves. The remaining uncertainty is perfectly captured in the snow map as the lower numbers show more rain and the higher numbers show that possible shift occurring.

The NBM has not fully latched on to that idea but it is known to be a run or two behind on changes like this. The HREF most notable has had this change since the 12z run. NBM probabilities are also lagging behind. For 6 inches its 60 to 80 percent in the Warning area and then quickly drops to zero in the south central. The only area for 8 inches thats of note is 80 percent in the Turtle Mountain region. For 2 inches its 50 percent near the Missouri River and east, to 100 percent in the north central and northeast.

Another weak low pressure system will follow suit and bring more snow to the state Wednesday night into Thursday. This will mainly just affect the southwest where a trace to 3 inch of snow could fall. The rest of the week looks quiet before another weak clipper low could move through, bringing light snow to the north. Northwest flow will continue through Monday, keeping temperatures below normal. Lows could be below zero with highs in the single digits to low 20s. Early next week the pattern could change to a ridge with warmer air moving back in.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A dynamic winter system will bring periods of rain and snow through the forecast period, along with brief freezing rain and perhaps some thunder this evening. Ceilings across most sites will start at MVFR this evening. Once precipitation starts, IFR conditions can be expected. Most sites will also see precipitation start as rain, then change over to snow later this evening, with some freezing rain possible in between. Snow could then continue into Wednesday morning, before diminishing from southwest to northeast Wednesday afternoon. Strong easterly winds will become strong west northwesterly winds as this system moves through, and could bring some blowing snow. Heavy snow combined with blowing snow could also bring some LIFR conditions at times. Areas that see snow and blowing snow diminish toward the end of this TAF period could perhaps also see VFR conditions return.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ001>005-009>013. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Wednesday night for NDZ017>023-025. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ031>034-040>045. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ035>037. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ046>048- 050-051.