textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat through late this evening most areas, with high temperatures and heat index values in the upper 90s to near 110.

- Hot to very hot temperatures continue through at least mid- week in the southwest and south central. A Heat Advisory may be needed across southern portions of the state through mid- week.

- A little cooler far northwest today, then across the north Tuesday through the end of the work week.

- Dry today through Tuesday daytime, then low to medium (20 to 40%) chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday in the north. - Near daily low (20%) chances for thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 939 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Temperatures continue to warm into the 80s across much of the state. Hot temperatures are forecast this afternoon across the area with high heat index values up to 110. There is a slow moving front that has entered the northwest so they will only warm into the 90s this afternoon. No updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

No updates needed at this time. A weak cold front has pushed into far northwest ND, but with higher dewpoint air behind the front and little change in temperature, it feels just as oppressive behind the cold front. No changes to current headlines at this time. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through late this evening. Hot to very hot temperatures will continue across the south through much of the work week. There will be a little relief in the north.

For today, the northwest will see some relief from the extreme heat. After coordination with neighbors, will continue the Extreme Heat Warning for now. Current temperatures in the northwest remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold front is poised to push into the far northwest shortly. In far northeast Montana, the cold front passage brought some slightly cooler temperatures, but with higher dew point temperatures. Highs today will be cooler in the northwest (lower to mid 90s) but with the warm and muggy start, we elected to keep the warning going and will let the day shift either cancel later today, or just let the warning continue, as it really won't be all that much cooler, even though technically Warning criteria heat may not be met here. Forecast highs may be a bit cooler northwest, but will be similar, or even a bit warmer elsewhere, especially in the southwest and south central where high temperatures and heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees will be possible.

Tonight into Tuesday the cold front currently in the far northwest sinks slowly south. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the northern half of the state Tuesday, while the south remains hot. Exactly how hot will depend on how far the cold front can make it south during the day Tuesday. Far southern portions of the CWA will likely see temperatures near or above 100 degrees once again, with a transition northward to seasonable temperatures along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. A Heat related Hazard will be needed on Tuesday. This may be an extension of the current Extreme Heat Warning, or possibly a Heat Advisory, as temperatures overall probably won't be quite as hot as this weekend. Will let the day shift evaluate this and coordinate with neighbors today.

Upper level ridging surges back north Wednesday keeping forecast highs around 100 degrees across the southern half of the state through Thursday, with the potential for heat related hazards remaining through this timeframe.

Precipitation chances this week look meager at best. Tuesday night through Wednesday morning a shortwave tracks from the central/northern Rockies into southern Canada, possibly brushing the northern periphery of the forecast area. However the upper level ridge is building over the area at this time and it's possible that any convection will hold off until it reaches Canada. Currently NBM pops are low to medium (20 to 40%) along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. The southern half of the CWA looks to miss out completely with this wave. Then Thursday through the remainder of the week, only low (20%) chances are depicted by the NBM. The latest WPC Day 1-7 QPF forecast is pretty much bone dry across all of the Northern and Central Plains. For us, far northern North Dakota may be our only hope for little if any precipitation through at least the work week, and perhaps the entire week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the 12Z TAF period. LLWS at KJMS to begin the TAF period, through 15 UTC. Stronger winds aloft have diminished at the other TAF sites. Only some scattered mid and high level clouds today. Southerly surface flow, gusty at times up to 25 knots at all sites this morning, except KXWA. Here a cold front is poised to move through shortly, turning surface flow north to northeast. Surface flow will shift north to northeast at KMOT and KDIK later today, but will remain southerly through the period at KBIS and KJMS.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037- 040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.