textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon for portions of southwestern North Dakota.

- Windy with above normal temperatures today into Friday, then much colder Friday night through the weekend.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow across southwest and south central North Dakota Friday night through Saturday, with low to medium chances for a narrow band exceeding 3 inches.

- A return to above normal temperatures is favored for next week. A more active weather pattern could develop for the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Dry and breezy westerly flow will continue through tonight. This could lead to some near critical fire weather conditions in the southwest until around sunset this evening. Some mid to high clouds will be found moving through the region tonight, while low temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s are found. Friday, a weak and may dry cold front to start will push across the state from north to south. This will increase northwest winds and cool temperatures. Decent pressure rises and cold air advection with this front will arrive at fair mixing times of the day. Thus some advisory level winds are possible across northern and eastern portions of the state. HREF data also showing this potential. Thus have decided to issue a Wind Advisory for the higher confidence areas for stronger winds. Sustained winds over 30 mph and gusts up to 50 MPH are possible. Elsewhere could still see gusty winds, although confidence in advisory level winds was too low to expand further than what is currently out there. As this front stalls in the west, there could be some snow showers Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will be cooler yet still warm, with 30s for most areas and some lower 40s. Strong winds could bring some patchy blowing snow, mainly in the north and some eastern portions.

Friday night through Saturday, better chances for accumulating snow still look to be found during this time period as the front stalls. Most of the forcing appears to be frontogenesis driven, with some QG forcing also present. Being frontogenesis driven means uncertainty remains in where the heavier band(s) of snow set up with this system. Right now accumulating snow still looks likely south and west of the Missouri River and in some south central portions. From there clusters split on the heavier band either being in the southwest or slightly further north and draped across more central areas. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow still looks to be 25th to 75th forecast range for this band of snow, although there still remains low to medium chances for over 3 inches depending where the band sets up. Confidence was not high enough for winter highlights on this shift, although will be worth monitoring. The residence time of this band is also quick, with snow generally ending Saturday afternoon. With a surface high moving in, winds also look to be diminished for this event, limiting the blowing snow threat. Highs behind this front on Saturday will be in the single digits and teens, with 20s to the southwest. Some slight chances of snow may be found through Saturday night into Sunday across the south. Lows Saturday night will be in the single digits above and below zero for most sites. Light winds should limited the dangerous wind chill threat. Sunday, surface high moves through the state with dry northwest flow aloft. As it moves east a switch to southerly flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. This southerly flow continues through Sunday night, maintaining seasonable lows in the teens, with dry northwest flow aloft keeping conditions mainly dry.

Clusters indicating zonal to weak ridging flow aloft to be found early to mid next week. Temperature spreads remain large but are overall still indicating above normal conditions expected during this time period along with mainly dry conditions. Current forecast has highs in the 40s and 50s each day with lows in the 20s which falls around the 50th percentile of these spreads. Broad trough pattern could then be found to end the week as indicated by most clusters. Perhaps chances for precipitation return with this pattern, although NBM spreads indicate above normal temperatures could continue implying both rain and snow possible. Overall a mild start to March could be found, along with limited chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Mainly VFR and windy conditions expected through much of the forecast. Today, high clouds and gusty westerly winds will be found. Tonight, Breezy westerly winds will continue along with some mid to high level clouds. These increased winds will bring low level wind shear to most sites tonight into Friday morning. Windy northwest winds are then expected for Friday. A weak front will push through Friday morning, and could bring some low VFR to perhaps brief MVFR ceilings to a few sites.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CST Friday for NDZ002>005- 011>013-022-023-025-036-037.