textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms exist beginning late tonight in southwest North Dakota, and spreading across most of western and south central North Dakota Tuesday and Tuesday night. Only a low risk of a strong or severe storm exists with this activity south of I-94.

- A cooling trend is expected through midweek, before a warming trend occurs late this week and into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The chances for thunderstorms in the southern James River Valley of North Dakota is diminishing this evening as the surface front is making its way through Dickey county. Thunderstorm activity is as close as Ransom into Sargent county, but recent satellite trends have not shown any indication that this activity will spread its way into Dickey county before the front fully pushes out in the next several hours. There still remains a low end possibility that southeastern Dickey sees a thunderstorm but this chance will continue to diminish through the evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A cold front continues to move across the south central half of the state moving into the James River Valley. CAMs have storms going up along the front has there is plenty of instability and low level moisture to support strong to severe storms. However, the front has almost moved out of the county warning area. pushing the threat further east. There may be isolate strong to severe storms in the southern James River Valley as residual CAPE lingers across the area.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues a short wave digs across the main flow aloft this afternoon bringing chances for thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota. Another short wave is forecast to dig across western North Dakota tomorrow morning with precipitation chances increase through the day across south central North Dakota. Precipitable water around 1.5 inches will move across the region supporting high rain rates tomorrow afternoon. Localized flooding is possible if thunderstorms train over an area for a couple of hours. Some of the CAMs show an area of strong thunderstorms moving across the southeastern Montana into the southwest. There is an isolated risk for severe weather risk along the North and South Dakota border tomorrow afternoon and evening, the greater risk area is in South Dakota along the cold front.

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue across the state as multiple waves move across the region as Quasi-zonal flow continues. CSU ML program does highlight a low chance of severe weather Thursday into the weekend. This is due increased instability due to warmer temperatures and low level moisture and multiple waves. Temperatures are forecast to slowly decrease by the middle of the week into the 70s and 80s before ramping back up into the 80s and 90s by the weekend. An upper level ridge is forecast to build back over the west this coming weekend supporting a round of hot weather. The NBM 25th to 75th on Sunday does range from the lower 90s to lower 100s for KBIS. There is high confidence in hot temperatures early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Ceilings at 6k-10k feet will overspread the region from the west through the morning hours with isolated-scattered -SHRA and isolated -TSRA periodically through the day. Mainly VFR with pockets of MVFR possible under any heavier shower or thunderstorm. Surface wind will become east to northeast through the morning increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts to 22 kts, with weaker winds at KMOT.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.