textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog could develop in southwest and far south central North Dakota later tonight into Friday morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above normal this weekend into early next week.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light rain Friday night through Saturday, followed by medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for rain Sunday night through Monday night, possibly lasting into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently, strong to moderate zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains with broad ridging from the Central Plains back northwest across the Rockies. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extends from southern Saskatchewan southeast into western Minnesota. A few light showers continue across the southern James River Valley into southeastern areas of the state, associated with an area of low/mid level frontogensis.

Models continue to suggest fog redeveloping into parts of southwest and south central ND later tonight, but have trended south with the aerial placement last few runs. Will maintain in the forecast for now.

Broad ridging aloft amplifies and develops east for the upcoming weekend, trending temperatures warmer with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Sat and Sun. At the same time, boundary layer moisture increases thanks to a southerly mid level flow transporting 50+ degree Td values. With embedded disturbances moving through the flow aloft, sky cover will be robust along with a chances for light showers/drizzle both days.

Deep upper level low pressure off the West Coast within long wave troughing aloft will swing inland Sunday, then crosses the Rockies and moves into the Great Plains Sunday night into Monday. Ensembles and NBM continue to favor medium to high chances for rain west Sunday night and area wide for Monday/Mon night, with precipitation chances slowly decreasing Tuesday from west to east as the main forcing departs to our east. Might see chances linger longer on Tuesday depending the degree of wrap around that occurs. QPF amounts are forecast to range from around a quarter inch, with some area up to half an inch possible. Precip type will be all liquid with this event.

Thereafter, ensembles suggest lots of uncertainty after Tuesday, with near normal temperatures expected for now in the 40s and 50s and lows cooling to subfreezing by the middle of next week. Precip chances will be heavily dependent on any upper level feature moving through the region, and right now the forecast is dry both Wed and Thu.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR ceilings persist over far northwest and north central North Dakota early this afternoon, with both KMOT and KXWA trending SCT to SKC through 19-20Z. VFR conditions elsewhere. Mainly light and variable winds expected during the 18Z period, with an easterly component during daytime hours. A northwest wind can be found across the north early to mid afternoon.

Models are leaning towards low level stratus and/or fog redeveloping later tonight across southwest North Dakota, but uncertain if this will impact the KDIK terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are favored.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.