textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of snow ending this morning. Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) of seeing 2 or more inches of snow over a corridor from around Bismarck-Steele to around Harvey- Carrington. Locally higher amounts to 4 inches possible.

- Well below average temperatures today with highs mainly in the 30s. Windy as well today, with northwest winds gusting to near 40 mph at times.

- Temperatures trend warmer through this weekend and into the middle portions of next week, along with mainly dry weather.

- Active weather pattern is favored after Wednesday of next week, along with a cooling trend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Winds continue to pick up across the state with snow showers across the north and an upper low moves across the International Border. No major updates are needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 903 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The band of precipitation that brought snow this morning has moved off to the east. An upper level low continues to churn along the International Border which will bring wrap around snow to the northern half of the state and low stratus. Winds are forecast to pick up as the dry slot quickly moves through the region.

UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Trimmed off Burleigh and Sheridan counties from the Winter Weather Advisory with snow having ended. Will continue with headlines elsewhere for now.

Snow will continue to taper off central and east as low level forcing decreases and/or pushes east. Wrap around snow associated with the mid level low will continue to spread east- southeast into western and portions of central North Dakota this morning, along with increasing clouds. May need to increase POPs in future weather updates.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Currently, split flow aloft early this morning with a northern stream cutoff low over far southern Saskatchewan resulting in strong southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Strong frontogenesis brought a period of moderate to sometimes heavy precipitation over the past several hours over southwest into central areas of North Dakota. This precipitation is ongoing, and mainly in the form of snow at this time, from south central into northeastern ND. Colder air aloft continues to push south- southeast, and there remains a chance for a wintry mix on the leading edge of the precipitation for a few more hours.

Precipitation associated with the strong FG will end from west to east, by around mid morning across the James River Valley. Total snowfall is still expected to be around 2-3 inches, with some higher totals closer to 4 inches possible. With ongoing snowfall, will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory as is with this product issuance.

Another area of lighter precipitation in the form of snow, associated with the mid level low and now over northeastern Montana, will develop east into portions of my northwest and central through the morning hours today. Thereafter, the mid level low and overall split flow pattern propagates east across the Dakotas today, with a tight pressure gradient developing resulting in a blustery day with northwest wind gusts to 40 mph and afternoon temperatures mostly in the 30s.

Strong northwest flow aloft for Saturday, with latest model iterations showing embedded waves moving through, generating light QPF across the local region. NBM hasn't really caught onto this yet, so the forecast right now for Sat is dry. Anticipate NBM POPs to increase if current model trend hold. Continued breezy Sat (eastern half of the state), with temperatures slightly warmer in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

Flow aloft transitions to more west-northwest later this weekend into early next week, with this flow pattern bringing mild Pacific air into the Northern Plains. Temperatures quickly moderate back into the 60s and 70s Monday-Wednesday, along with mainly dry weather forecast.

After mid-week, an active/cooler weather pattern is then favored to end the week with ensembles still showing upper level troughing approaching from the west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Low stratus continues to lift across the area this afternoon leading to VFR conditions. However, there may be a few areas of MVFR conditions. There is some light snow showers possible this afternoon across the state. Winds continue to pick up out of the northwest with wind gusts around 35 kts. Wind gusts will diminish after sunset but winds will remain elevated.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.