textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible tonight, mainly over areas that received snowfall recently.

- Low chances for scattered light rain or freezing rain showers across northwest and central North Dakota tonight.

- Windy conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday, with low to medium chances for light rain or snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Current surface analysis places low over northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan with high over the northern/central Rockies. Upper level analysis places low just north of Minneapolis, with ridge over the West Coast. Over our area, snow has pushed to the east, but a little bit of blowing and drifting snow is noted primarily over far south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. Some of this is sticking to plowed roads, therefore we put out a Special Weather Statement through the afternoon to address this.

For tonight, warm air aloft ahead of a clipper encroaching from the west combined with a modest short wave will bring low chances for precipitation to the area. Precipitation types are a bit tricky as most locations will see any precipitation fall as rain, but surface temperatures will be right on the cusp of freezing. Therefore, may be a mix of rain/freezing rain. Some snow possible over colder areas to the northeast, mainly towards the Turtle Mountains. Cold front then slides through during the early morning hours resulting in breezy northwesterly winds. Temperatures remain below average, with coolest temperatures expected to be over areas that received recent snow. Monday looks to be quiet and cool with surface high behind the aforementioned clipper settled in.

Tuesday into Wednesday is when our next system is forecast to move through the area. Windy conditions are expected Tuesday as a warm front lifts through the area, but some question as to how far east the warmer air can make it. Either way a notable warm- up is expected, especially west. Precipitation chances enter the forecast in earnest Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper low approaches the region with cold front dropping through Wednesday, again resulting in windy conditions. System pushes east for Thursday, with some chances returning Thursday night into Friday with the next disturbance pushing through.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Localized MVFR to low end VFR ceilings continue over parts of western into central North Dakota as a few small areas of lower clouds move through. This will continue through the afternoon. Late this evening and overnight, patchy fog becomes a concern over much of southern into a few parts of north central North Dakota where fresh snow has fallen. There is still some question as to whether the fog will form, so have not mentioned in any individual TAFs. MVFR ceilings are then expected to develop Sunday morning behind a frontal boundary over northwest and much of central North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.