textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions today.

- Isolated showers this afternoon.

- Cooler today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual warm-up through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Low to mid-level stratocu is present across most of the forecast area. There are some cracks in the sky cover, though it's looking less and less likely that any substantial sun will break through for most areas. With northwesterly winds and lack of sun, decreased high temperatures a bit across the forecast area. While this will result in slightly higher minimum relative humidity values, maintaining near critical fire weather condition mentions due to gusty winds and still dry conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 859 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The strongest winds associated with a passing cold frontal boundary have ended across the forecast area for now, and most sustained winds are currently 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. The Bismarck airport ASOS did report a brief gust of 45 mph the last hour. However, none of surrounding observations picked up on it so it must have been fairly localized. Still expect winds to pick up this afternoon with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph possible. However, with the best pressure rises and strongest CAA having already passed through, thick low-level stratus advecting south, and a pressure gradient that should weaken to some degree; confidence is only medium in regard to winds reaching their peak potential this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Most of the rain on radar in the southwest does not seem to be reaching the ground yet. Relative humidity is only around 45 percent and cloud bases are at 8000 feet. The forecast is still on track for today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Northwest flow continues across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley from a low pressure system in southern Canada. There are two cold fronts extending off this low pressure, one that has already move through the state, and another currently in central North Dakota. The first front gusted winds to 50 MPH for a short period, the second has light rain along the front. Slight chances for rain was added to the current NBM forecast. The second front is also creating gusty winds, but only to around 30 MPH.

Today will be cooler, but still breezy. Expect highs in the post frontal air to be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s far south. Winds will be from the northwest, gusting near 30 MPH. Winds will be very close to Advisory criteria, especially in the southwest. Some models have strong winds gusting near 50 MPH, and others don't. Confidence is lower, especially with the cold front passage happening now, along with the high pressure bubble. We will wait and see if the winds do end up stronger than forecast. There is still some fire weather danger today with the winds and afternoon humidities dropping to 30 percent. So we will maintain the near-critical wording, pay attention to your local burn restrictions. Under the cyclonic flow from the low pressure system, scattered isolated showers are possible this afternoon. With this, we covered our area in a broad slight chance (20%) through the afternoon.

The rest of this week we will remain in the northwest flow as a ridge builds in the western CONUS. This ridge will slowly force the northwest flow and cooler air to shift east. This in turn will warm our surface temperatures. By this weekend we will be back above normal temperatures with highs possibly in the mid and upper 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue through the day today before rapidly becoming light this evening. Light winds will remain northwesterly overnight before becoming breezy again later Tuesday morning. Isolated showers, mostly as rain, but perhaps with a little light snow mixed in, are possible this afternoon and evening. For the most part, ceilings should remain low VFR this afternoon, though can't rule out pockets of MVFR ceilings. Especially should any light rain or snow occur.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.