textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, though timing remains in question. The main expected hazards include hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds to 70 mph, with a tornado possible.

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Friday night, with a low risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast at times through the holiday weekend.

- Highs mainly in the 80s expected through Independence Day, with 90s on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Ongoing convection along the I-94 corridor from Bismarck to Jamestown will probably fester through the afternoon. WOFS is not impressed with the severe potential here, and neither are we, although an isolated marginal severe hailstone can not be ruled out. Bulk shear has increased here in the past hour and there is a large increasing gradient in hail cape from Jamestown to Bismarck. I think the main concern is now shifting more to the west. Near full sun and increasing shear and instability is expected across western ND this afternoon, but there is still disagreement in the CAMS as to when convection will develop with some developing convection early-mid afternoon and others holding off until closer to 00Z Friday. The Wofs is showing convection developing in the far west around 21-22 UTC. Storm mode would support supercells over western ND this afternoon and all hazards would be in play then. LCL heights are pretty high though so the threat in the far southwest to west central looks lower than in the northwest late afternoon into early evening. There is also a small max in the far south central early this evening, but overall the tornado threat remains on the lower side. Also large to very large hail would be a threat with supercells that can maintain their updrafts. A transition to a linear system may still occur later tonight although the signal for this has not been consistent and it has backed off from yesterday. SPC has pulled the enhanced area out of the James River Valley. Yesterday, convection firing out west or along the east to west boundary over central/southern ND transitioned into one or more linear convective systems that tracked into southeast ND. That's not really showing up today. Although a smaller linear or bowing segment from any convection that fires over western ND can not be ruled out. There has been some consistency in convection later this evening/overnight either developing over or moving into northwest ND (from Montana or Saskatchewan) and tracking into the north central. We will continue to monitor, but overall very perplexing with little agreement in the CAMS. Also do not want to downplay the severe potential if/when convection does develop. Although the bulk shear does not appear to be as strong, and there are some limiting factors such as the upper level ridging mentioned in a prior discussion, the potential for severe storms does remain and if you do have plans that take you outdoors, remain weather aware and be ready to take shelter if threatening weather approaches.

Friday may be another day similar to today, with little agreement in CAMS and possibly some morning convection to throw another wrench into things. However, overall, the threat seems a bit lower with instability, and especially bulk shear not as high as today. However, we will need to monitor. Convection does look to taper to isolated to scattered in nature as we go through the Holiday weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise though, especially on Sunday with high temperatures into the 90s across the area, and perhaps getting into the upper 90s southwest. Beyond the weekend, we see a quasi-zonal flow along the northern tier states with occasional impulses bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures remain near or a little above climatological normals (lower 80s) for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Convection is exiting the James River Valley, but isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to linger along the I-94 corridor back to the Bismarck area. Otherwise, VFR conditions remain across the area, except for some lower ceilings in the far north.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and continue into the evening. Some storms may be severe with large hail and +50 kt wind gusts. Any storm will be capable of heavy downpours briefly reducing visibility to at least IFR levels.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.