textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog may develop early this morning over parts of western North Dakota. - Dry conditions continue through the remainder of this week and into early next week.

- Seasonably cool high temperatures east to seasonably warm high temperatures west to close out the week, then a gradual warming trend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low-level stratus is present over most of the state, except the far southwest. So far, dense fog generally hasn't materialized in the west with most visibility remaining in excess of a mile, though occasional dips below have been observed. Winds over western North Dakota do maintain a southeasterly component, which is often favorable for dense fog development. However, combined with near-surface winds that are breezy more often than not, they may just be a tad too strong for more widespread dense fog development. Instead favoring limited visibility reductions and low-level stratus. Nevertheless, cannot rule out dense fog development over parts of the west and especially southwest as sunrise approaches. The current NBM forecast has low-level stratus eroding through the day today as surface high pressure begins to filter into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. However, considering the pervasiveness of current cloud cover and the time of year, that may be a tall order, especially for the moister western half of the state.

Aforementioned surface high will continue filtering into Minnesota with its influence extending over the eastern half of the Dakotas through Saturday. Simultaneously, a well amplified thermal ridge over the Eastern Rockies/High Plains will maintain northerly flow aloft over the region. Thus, a moderate temperature gradient will continue today through Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 30s east to low 50s west. As the thermal ridge continues sliding eastward Sunday into early next week, a statewide warming trend (moderately east, only marginally west) is favored to reach a crescendo Monday. After which, an incoming west CONUS trough is favored to flatten the ridge and bring a statewide cooling trend. Depending on how this plays out, could see an extended pattern shift towards the end of next week that brings a continued cooling trend and the potential return of more organized precipitation.

The one last thing to note is that as previously mentioned surface high pressure filters into Minnesota; low pressure will also sit along the lee of the Rockies. This tightening pressure gradient will result in breezy southeasterly winds Friday mainly along and west of Highway 83, and then across most of the state Saturday, with a few stronger gusts possible in western North Dakota. As the surface high moves off to the southeast, lighter winds are then expected to start next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 946 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings over central and eastern ND. The ceilings are expected to remain over central ND overnight and through Thursday morning. Ceilings should improve Thursday afternoon, but there is definitely a signal, especially from the RAP and HRRR, that clouds may linger through most of the day over central and western ND. The GFS shows clouds dissipating mid to late morning, while the RRFs shows clouds lingering through midday before beginning to erode.

Northeast to east winds 5 to 15 mph will shift east to southeast through the period, with southeast winds 15 to 25 mph over western ND by Thursday afternoon.

RAP and HRRR Guidance still suggests areas of fog developing over western ND later tonight. Will continue with this trend but confidence in widespread fog over all of western ND is now lower. Maybe more like the northwest and west central and into the south central. Pretty high T/Td spread remain over the far southwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.