textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures today will range from seasonably mild north to unseasonably warm southwest. It will be noticeably colder far north on Monday but the central and south will remain mild. Temperatures cool statewide on Tuesday. - A wintry mix of rain, snow and possibly some freezing rain mainly north tonight through Monday morning. Rain and snow then spread southeast across the forecast area Monday night.

- There is increasing confidence in a system bringing widespread precipitation to the the region late Thursday through Saturday. Uncertainty remains high though in the eventual track of the system and as well as if snow or rain will be favored.

UPDATE

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Only some minor adjustments to sky cover, otherwise no changes to the early morning update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A broad quasi-zonal upper level flow will provide for a pleasant day to western and central North Dakota on this last Sunday of March. As we transition from March to April this coming week we will have an abundance of weather concerns or highlights, whichever you like. Let's just say we could be in for an active week of weather to close out March and welcome in April.

Seasonably mild (north) to unseasonably warm far south temperatures today will produce some fire weather concerns, mainly in the far southwest. We blended some high resolution dewpoints to our given guidance to get some lower afternoon humidities. This has worked out well the past few days, and we probably could have gone drier with afternoon dewpoints but it is a good start. We are getting minimum humdities into the mid teens to mid 20s over the far southwest and south central. Winds are pretty light this morning but shift northwest this afternoon. Our given guidance gives us winds in the 10 to 15 mph range this afternoon. However looking at RAP and HRRR forecast soundings there looks to be the potential for stronger winds to mix down this afternoon, giving us sustained winds, at least for a while of 15 to 20 mph and some potential higher gust to around 25-30 mph. Given the warm temperatures and dry vegetation, will mention some near critical fire weather conditions in the far southwest and south central. Monday will be another day that we will need to monitor for possible near critical fire weather conditions, but at this time there is enough uncertainty to not add the wording for now, and visit again today/tonight.

A shortwave eminating from the northeastern Pacific will move into the northern Rockies on Monday, but will begin to impact our northwest as early as late this evening. Ahead of the wave, strong warm advection will move into western ND tonight, with good FG forcing along the International Border and steep lapse rates lifting north towards the Border as well. QG forcing is not strong, but it does propagate along the border as well. This could result in a period of banded precipitation late this evening through Monday morning along the International Border. In addition, due to the warm temperatures aloft there is the potential for some light freezing rain as well. The area impacted looks to be in Divide and northern Williams county, east through north central ND. The potential for an inch of snow is moderate to high across only the far northern tier counties, and low across the the second tier of counties (northern Williams and Mountrail east through Pierce). However the probability of at least a hundredth of an inch of freezing rain is higher in these counties. Will issue a SPS to highlight the potential for an inch or two of snow far north, with locally higher amounts if there is some banded snow, and lesser amounts of snow just south but also with some light freezing rain possible. This area may eventually lift a bit farther north, but think there is enough potential along the Border to highlight with a SPS and have coordinated this with FGF. Monday night the upper trough propagates across the forecast area. this should bring at least a chance of rain and snow to central and southern portions of the forecast area. The system quickly exits late Monday night, with much colder temperatures spreading south across the forecast area for Tuesday, especially south. Far southern areas will see temperatures on the order of 15 to 25 degrees colder than Monday.

We see a brief period of quiet weather Tuesday through Wednesday as shortwave ridging tracks across the northern Plains behind this exiting system. Meanwhile, another northeast Pacific low drops southeast into the Pacific Northwest by Thursday. This will set the stage for another round of precipitation late in the workweek and into the weekend.

At this time confidence is increasing in the potential for widespread precipitation across portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday through Saturday. With that said, there remains a large amount of uncertainty in the timing and placement of the system as it moves through the Plains. We mentioned a couple of days ago while looking at the clusters that it doesn't look like a black and white, wet or dry scenario, and that is still the case. Although when it comes to getting some much needed precipitation, there's always someone that comes out on the short end of the stick. At this time it's too early to tell where that would be. Looking at the cluster analysis for 24 hour precipitation from Thursday evening through Friday evening, there are a couple of north and west solutions for heavier qpf, and a couple that favor higher precip in the south and east. In general, the qpf amounts range from a tenth of an inch to a half of an inch. Yesterday we mentioned that across the forecast area, the probability for a tenth of an inch of liquid was medium to high and the probability for a half inch or more was mostly low. This really hasn't chanced, although the probability for at least a tenth of an inch is mostly high now. There are also a lot of questions regarding temperatures and whether or not we see more rain or more snow, and if it is more snow, how much will accumulate. We are still around 5 days out so a lot can change. Right now at least, we do think confidence has increased in a system bringing widespread precipitation to portions of the northern Plains late in the workweek and into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 12Z TAF period across western and central ND. There is a small, narrow band of low stratus extending northwest to southeast across Ward county. At this time the cloud layer is nearly stationary and remains west of Minot. Will need to monitor, but for now will just add a scattered IFR layer to the Minot TAF, with no ceiling. Late in the TAF period MVFR to IFR ceilings and light rain and snow enter the KXWA and KMOT TAF sites. Expect winds variable from northwest to southeast at 5 to 15 knots.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.