textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions will continue through Monday, with daily highs generally in the 30s northeast to 50s southwest.

- Confidence in accumulating snow continues to increase next Tuesday through Thursday.

- Cooling trend expected next week, but still near to above average temperatures favored through the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 831 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Quiet weather continues. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 522 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Mostly dry conditions and continued unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through Monday. After which, confidence is increasing in the return of winter weather and more seasonable temperatures. Though lots of uncertainty remains in the type of system and timing of any winter weather, as well as just how impactful and widespread any impacts will be.

Flow aloft remains zonal to northwesterly through Monday, while surface winds will be southerly to westerly most of the time at most locations. This will maintain unseasonably warm conditions across the state with highs generally ranging from the 30s northeast to low 50s, and possibly mid 50s, in the southwest. Embedded shortwave energy could produce a little rain or snow Saturday night mainly in the north. However, any precipitation should be light with little to no impacts expected at this time. Models continue to hint at potential fog development mainly in the north central early this morning and again tonight. However, while satellite imagery suggests a little patchy fog may be present as of this writing, based on model overaggressiveness over the past few days, left it out of the forecast for tonight.

More interestingly is the middle of next week where model confidence is increasing in a cooler and more active pattern. The NBM 5.0 is now producing a 50 percent or greater probability of 2 inches or more of snow along and north of I94, with the highest probabilities in the north central and northeast. This ensemble output makes a lot of sense based on the pictures drawn by global deterministics. The deterministic EC has been producing more of a quicker hitting open wave that focuses more on the north and east for precipitation, while the GFS tries to wrap up a Colorado/hybrid low. The latter scenario of which would produce higher and more widespread impacts based on stronger winds, heavier snow and blowing snow with greater areal coverage, and a longer duration. In both scenarios, southern extents of the system may start out as rain, though exactly where the rain snow line sets up and for how long remains up in the air.

Regardless of how much snow any particular location receives next week, confidence is very high in the return of cooler temperatures during the latter half of the week. Some uncertainty remains in just how cool conditions become as NBM 25th/75th temperature spreads range from around 10 to 15 degrees to finish out next week. As of now, this translates to potential highs ranging from the upper teens (seasonably cool) to low 30s (seasonable), give or take.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A little patchy fog is present in the far north central early this morning and may return tonight. Any fog seems unlikely to impact any TAF sites at this time. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.