textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog across northwest and expanding into central North Dakota tonight into Sunday morning.

- Near-record high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s for the western half of the state on Sunday.

- Low to medium chances for light rain and snow on Monday. Temperatures trend slightly cooler next week, but remain above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 848 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for counties along and north of Highway 2, and along and west of Highway 83, in effect until 10 AM CST Sunday. The advisory may need expanding, but will wait and monitor observed trends. Model guidance continues to project high confidence in dense fog spreading southeastward through central North Dakota later tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The main concern for the near-term period is the potential for dense fog developing across northwest and central North Dakota later this evening through tonight. Recent model guidance that simulates surface visibility has become much more aggressive with widespread dense fog developing along and to the west of the current stratus shield, with the highest probabilities for quarter mile or less visibility from around Tioga and Stanley to Bismarck. Surface dewpoint depressions are already low, and model soundings show a very strong and dry inversion above the near-surface layer. Two possible prohibiting factors for fog formation are mid to high clouds and stronger winds around 1 km AGL, but the decoupling boundary layer is already nearing saturation. It may not be long until enhanced messaging is needed as there is already an automated observation in far western Ward County reporting visibility under one mile.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

An upper level ridge out west continues to build across the Northern Rockies. This has brought forth warmer weather. A warm front has moved into the region this afternoon switching wind to westerly across Montana and western North Dakota. The warm front has pushed across the western half of the state, as of 20Z, warming sites in the west into the upper 40s so far this afternoon pushing low stratus eastward. Now the low stratus is forecast to stall out later tonight across the eastern half of the state potential growing westward. Patchy fog could form across the northwest and central half of the state tonight into tomorrow morning. Hi-Res models have patchy fog forming around the Missouri River Valley. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to drop down into the upper teens in the Red River Valley and and the slightly above freezing in the southwest.

Tomorrow temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to lower 60s in the southwest with the remainder of the warning area in the 40s. Westerly winds and clearing skies support warm temperatures across the southwest as the ridge axis passes overhead. Record temperatures are possible across the western half of the state including Williston, Dickinson, and Minot while Bismarck will have a harder time reaching the record as it is on the edge of the thermal ridge. Record temperatures are dependent on clearing skies if skies remain overcast there is a chance temperatures staying on the cooler side. The upper level ridge will flatten into zonal flow as a clipper passes to the North Monday. This will bring forth cooler temperatures into the region, however temperatures are forecast to remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Some of the Hi-Res models are hinting at a banded precipitation event taking place Monday while the global models and the NBM have lower chances for precipitation. Precipitation chances are forecast to be a rain snow mix during the day and snow overnight. There is still quiet a bit of uncertainty with this event.

Quasi-zonal pattern will continue through the middle of the week with chances 20 to 40 percent for rain and snow Wed into Thu. Persistent above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of next week as well with temperatures in the 40s. Some deterministic models have been hinting at a strong upper level low moving across the Southern/Central Plains, but the models seem to flip flop daily on this system in the extended. The ensembles are not in agreement with any solutions for next weekend so stay up to date with the latest forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Much of northern and eastern North Dakota begins the 00Z TAF cycle with low ceilings ranging from MVFR from around KMOT to KJMS to as low as LIFR along the Canadian border. The most likely outcome for tonight is for IFR/LIFR ceilings to expand to the south and west. There is also increasing confidence in fog developing underneath the low clouds across most of northwest and central North Dakota later this evening through tonight. The fog could become dense, especially from between KXWA and KMOT to around KBIS. KXWA and KDIK are forecast to be near the edge of the low clouds and fog, but there are higher odds for a few hours of categorical restrictions at KXWA than at KDIK. KJMS will maintain a low ceiling but has much lower probabilities for visibility restrictions.

The low clouds and fog are expected to clear from west to east Sunday morning. All terminals should return to VFR conditions for Sunday afternoon. Mostly light and variable winds tonight becoming west-southwest Sunday afternoon at around 10 kts in central North Dakota to 15-20 kts in western North Dakota. KXWA and surrounding areas could see afternoon gusts approach 30 kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for NDZ001>003- 009>011.