textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- After warmer weather on Thursday, cooler but still seasonal temperatures are expected through the weekend into early next week.

- A Red Flag Warning will be in effect Thursday across much of western North Dakota.

- Mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the week, then low to medium chances for rain late this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Weak radar returns linger across portions of central into eastern North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. With the very dry near surface conditions found across the forecast area this evening, no surface observations of precipitation have been found. Winds have remains generally light across the region this evening, though have become a little gusty across the northwest and north central over the past few hours. Analysis indicates slightly higher pressure rises and low level lapse rates across this area, allowing some strong winds from a developing low level jet to mix down to the surface. As we head into the evening and the boundary layer become more established, this isolated gusts are expected to diminish. For this update, we have tweaked winds and sky cover in line with the latest observations and model trends through the evening and overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Currently cyclonic flow continues across much of the Central and Northern Plains around a Hudson Bay upper low. A very slight shortwave at the jet stream level is creating high clouds over the Dakotas. This translate to the surface with a surface trough and light rain returns on radar. So far there are no reports of this rain reaching the ground, likely due to a very dry near surface atmosphere. To the west a ridge is building across the Pacific Northwest. The rest of this afternoon near-critical fire weather conditions will continue across the northwest and north central as winds could gust to 30mph with the low relative humidities and dry grass. Tonight a surface low pressure in northern CO could push near surface wildfire smoke into the state through early Thursday morning. Theres also a chance that through Friday we start to have smoke aloft linger.

Thursday the fire weather concerns elevate enough to have a few hours of Red Flag conditions across the west. Therefor we have issued a Red Flag Warning for much of western ND for Thursday afternoon and evening. Along with the very dry air and breezy winds, a cold front in the evening will shift winds to the northwest. With the cooler air behind the front, fire weather conditions will likely quickly improve as the air will be slightly cooler and more moist. Thursday will also be the warmest day of the forecast as the ridge is at it's peak over the Northern Plains. Expect widespread highs in the 90s.

The rest of this week that ridge will slowly flatten to zonal flow, keeping the strong thermal ridge to our south. Highs will then only be in the 80s through the weekend. This zonal flow could create some disturbances in the flow off the Northern Rockies, leading to slight chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday night. Late this weekend the flow turns slightly northwesterly as the Hudson Bay low slides south towards New York. This will bring some cyclonic flow into northern ND. More disturbances could form off the Canadian Rockies leading to widespread low to medium chances for rain Sunday night through Tuesday. Temperatures during this time look to stay in the 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR ceilings are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. Periods of near surface smoke may occasionally promote MVFR ceilings across portions of western and south central North Dakota this evening through the end of the TAF period. Have opted to include 6SM visibility and FU at KXWA, KDIK, KBIS, and KJMS to reflect this. A thick(er) layer of smoke aloft is also expected across much of western and central North Dakota tonight through the end of the TAF period. A developing low level jet across eastern North Dakota will promote LLWS at KJMS after midnight through early Thursday morning. Otherwise, light west to southwest winds this evening will generally diminish and become variable overnight, before reorganizing out of the west through Thursday morning, then turning to the north northwest and becoming gusty, with sustained speeds around 20 to 25 knot and gusts up to 35 knots, Thursday afternoon through the end of the TAF period. The strongest winds are anticipated across the north and west.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.