textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmest day is Thursday, then a bit cooler but still seasonal temperatures through the weekend into early next week.

- Red flag Warning issued for Thursday across much of western North Dakota.

- Mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the week.

- Low to medium chances for rain possibly return this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Currently cyclonic flow continues across much of the Central and Northern Plains around a Hudson Bay upper low. A very slight shortwave at the jet stream level is creating high clouds over the Dakotas. This translate to the surface with a surface trough and light rain returns on radar. So far there are no reports of this rain reaching the ground, likely due to a very dry near surface atmosphere. To the west a ridge is building across the Pacific Northwest. The rest of this afternoon near-critical fire weather conditions will continue across the northwest and north central as winds could gust to 30mph with the low relative humidities and dry grass. Tonight a surface low pressure in northern CO could push near surface wildfire smoke into the state through early Thursday morning. Theres also a chance that through Friday we start to have smoke aloft linger.

Thursday the fire weather concerns elevate enough to have a few hours of Red Flag conditions across the west. Therefor we have issued a Red Flag Warning for much of western ND for Thursday afternoon and evening. Along with the very dry air and breezy winds, a cold front in the evening will shift winds to the northwest. With the cooler air behind the front, fire weather conditions will likely quickly improve as the air will be slightly cooler and more moist. Thursday will also be the warmest day of the forecast as the ridge is at it's peak over the Northern Plains. Expect widespread highs in the 90s.

The rest of this week that ridge will slowly flatten to zonal flow, keeping the strong thermal ridge to our south. Highs will then only be in the 80s through the weekend. This zonal flow could create some disturbances in the flow off the Northern Rockies, leading to slight chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday night. Late this weekend the flow turns slightly northwesterly as the Hudson Bay low slides south towards New York. This will bring some cyclonic flow into northern ND. More disturbances could form off the Canadian Rockies leading to widespread low to medium chances for rain Sunday night through Tuesday. Temperatures during this time look to stay in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR through the period. Near surface wildfire smoke is possible in the south central early Thursday morning, with lower confidence, left out of KBIS forecast for now. Winds will be southwesterly this afternoon 5 to 20kts before becoming light and variable overnight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.