textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below normal temperatures today, then warming to above normal for most areas through the middle of next week.

- Large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder) to southwest (warmer) through the middle of next week.

- Mainly dry weather conditions across western and central North Dakota for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Currently, quasi-static low/upper level pattern across the region with northwest flow aloft and a surface ridge of high pressure across south central Canada southeast through eastern North Dakota. Extensive area of stratus as lower clouds continue to expand southward in the wake of a mid level embedded wave and subtle frontal passage. Fog is also accompanying the stratus deck, currently over northwest and portions of north central ND. Localized dense fog remains possible, though not seeing any via ND DOT web cams or sfc obs at the moment. Will continue to handle any problem areas with a Special Weather statement for now. Have seen a few obs reporting freezing drizzle, so will keep this in the forecast through 12Z when chances decrease thereafter.

Western US upper level ridge now moving into the Rockies will continue east today and tonight, developing and deamplifying into the Great Plains by Sunday. This pattern change will allow milder air to spread east across the Dakotas, with a warm front into western ND Sunday, then across central ND Sun night. An embedded S/WV moving through the western and central Dakotas Sat night through Sun morning still looks to bring a period of light precipitation chances, with CAMs still favoring the north along the Canadian border. Kept POPs low due to the uncertainty of this occurring, but any moisture would come in the form of light freezing rain/mixed precip considering warm temperatures aloft spreading east over sfc air temperatures in the teens. Opted to increase POPs here from the NBM to maintain forecast consistency.

A quasi-zonal flow is favored through the middle of next week, with temperatures averaging above normal and only minimal chances for any precipitation. NBM is dry, though any disturbance moving through aloft could generate light precipitation. As we move into the later portions of next week, ensembles depict a progressive long wave trough amplifying over the western CONUS and developing east into the Great Plains. Initially a split flow pattern is favored, then models diverge with the EC members maintaining a split flow while GEFS members support a strong southern stream trough. Either solution doesn't bring any impactful weather to the Northern Plains, other than temperatures trending briefly cooler by the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 956 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Low stratus remains across western and south central ND to begin the 06Z TAF period, however there are some breaks as an upper level wave moves southeast through the area. These breaks will probably not last too long at any one site as low stratus can also be seen dropping south behind the shortwave. For now will lean on the pessimistic side as we head into the late overnight hours and into Saturday morning, but we do not expect widespread LIFR ceilings and vsbys in fog, more like IFR and maybe some MVFR ceilings and some patchy fog. As we get into Saturday afternoon, maybe some improvements as ceilings lift, by and large MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail, with a possible deterioration as we head into Saturday evening. Variable winds through the period generally 10 knots or less.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.