textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday for much of western and central North Dakota. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for most areas to the south and west of the Missouri River.

- A notable but brief warm up Thursday, with much cooler temperatures expected by the weekend.

- More widespread precipitation returns late in the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Breezy west to northwesterly winds around 10 to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH are expected to rapidly diminish as we head into the mid evening, becoming very light overnight. No adjustments to the forecast were necessary at this time, as it remains well on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The main forecast issue today will be the warm and dry conditions Thursday resulting in fire weather concerns for much of the forecast area. Will discuss that in more detail in the Fire Weather section below.

It's a little breezy in some areas, but overall a very nice afternoon is in store. Highs will be mainly in the 70s. Cool and quiet conditions are expected tonight with low in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

A system well to our north, in central Canada, will swing a cold front through the areas Thursday night into Friday. Ahead of this front, we are expecting very dry and warm air to move into western and central North Dakota on Thursday. Afternoon highs will be well into the 80s south and west of the Missouri River and mainly lower to mid 80s east. The Turtle Mountains area will see cooler conditions in the mid to upper 70s. The very dry conditions will produce critical to near critical fire weather conditions for all but the far northern and far eastern portions of the Forecast Area.

The cold front drop south through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Western and north central portions of the state will experience noticeably cooler temperatures with highs in mid 60 along the International Border, to the mid 70s over the far southwest. The southern James River Valley will see high similar to today, in the mid 80s.

The cold front will be a dry front, but eventually some increasing humidity will drop south into the state. Combined with an impulse tracking through a quasi-zonal flow, scattered showers are possible Friday, currently the northwest and parts of the north central are forecast to see low to medium (20 to 60%) chances for showers with low qpf amounts of only a few hundredths most areas.

A digging upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast on Friday will then bring our next chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into early next week. A lot of uncertainty remains at this time, but we may see a couple round of precipitation chances from later Saturday through early Monday before it lifts into southern portions of Canada on Monday. Temperatures remain cool (mainly in the 60s) through the weekend and into early next week. Sunday could be quite raw with low 60s and some 50 degree reading under cloudy skies strong easterly surface winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals sites throughout the 00Z TAF period. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected to rapidly diminish this evening, becoming very light and variable at most locations through early Thursday morning. Winds will then organize out of the southwest and strengthen through the late morning and afternoon, becoming gusty with sustained speeds around 15 to 25 MPH and gusts as high as 35 MPH across the west.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening for most areas south and west of the Missouri River. A Red Flag Warning has been issued. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected to surround the Red Flag Warning area and include most areas north and east of the Missouri River.

In the Red Flag Warning Area Humidity values will dip into the lower teens, and even as low as 10 percent, while southwest winds increase to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

In the Near Critical area surrounding the Red Flag Warning winds will be a little lighter, with humidity values around 15 to 25 percent. It is possible that some of the Near Critical areas could be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning if it looks like humidities will end up lower, or winds are forecast to be a bit higher.

Areas along the Canadian Border and from The Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley will see similar winds with humidity values dipping into the mid 20s to mid 30s, except mid 40s around the Turtle Mountains.

The HREF indicates an 80 to 90 percent probability for RH Values less than 20% and wind speeds greater than 15 mph for almost the entire area encompassed by the Fire Weather Watch. These value taper pretty quickly northward to the Missouri River, but do remain above 40 percent eastward to the Missouri River in south central ND.

In addition...The SPC REFS viewer shows a similar area. Both have the highest probabilities for meeting this criteria from Billings and Golden Valley counties, south through Slope and Bowman counties, but both extend probabilities above 50 percent, east of the original Fire Weather Watch. Therefore we did extend the Fire Weather Warning east to include all areas south and west of the Missouri River, except for eastern Morton and eastern Sioux counties.

It will be a mixout day so Red Flag conditions should be limited to the afternoon into the early evening. No changes were made to the timing.

It will be breezy to windy on Friday and depending on the propagation of the cold front, there could be portions of the far southwest and south central (along the SD Border) that could see near critical fire weather conditions as they will be the last to cool down behind the front.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.