textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, followed by near-daily low to medium chances through the work week.

- Marginal (level 1 out of 5) severe weather threat Saturday afternoon/evening over far southwest North Dakota.

- Marginal severe threat returns again Sunday afternoon/evening over southwest and parts of south central North Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Showers continue to be found across the state, with some thunderstorms currently observed in the southwest. Windy southeast winds are also being found today, although should remain below advisory criteria. Currently shower activity may not be as widespread as initially thought, thus adjusted PoPs slightly for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Limited changes needed this morning. Showers continue to linger across central ND, with more isolated coverage in the west. Lightning has been limited this morning, although should become more widespread this afternoon with increasing instability. Another day of breezy southeast winds can also be expected today. Overall the forecast remains on track with some minor changes to PoPs made.

UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

For early morning update main change was to push higher precipitation chances further north early this morning as precipitation stretches up the Highway 3/Highway 52 corridor.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the central Rockies stretching northward towards the Bighorn Mountains, while high remains over Hudson Bay. Upper level analysis places low pushing into the central Rockies, with narrow ridge stretching through the Midwest and over the Manitoba/Ontario border. Southerly flow aloft remains over our area with a variety of weak showers passing over.

For today, upper low lifts northeastward before starting to open up this evening over Wyoming/Montana. With the active pattern, shower chances will spread over much of the area and increase through the day. Instability will also be on the increase, leading to isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Strongest instability of about 500 to 1500 J/Kg remains over southwest North Dakota, though deep layer shear continues to appear rather weak. A marginal threat (level 1 of 5) remains over this area for severe weather. Forecast soundings continue to indicate that strong winds may be the main threat as storms shift into the area late this afternoon into this evening.

Sunday will see trough/low lift through Montana with periods of rain continuing over our area. Thunderstorm chances also continue, with increasing instability. Marginal severe threat also returns for the afternoon and evening hours over southwest nudging into parts of south central North Dakota.

On Monday aforementioned upper trough/low merges with another trough rotating out of the Pacific Northwest. Merged upper low loiters to our west keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast before system flushes to the east.

Thereafter a variety of systems move through the area but timing remains in question. Therefore, low chances for precipitation remain in the forecast through the remainder of the week over various parts of the area each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be found throughout much of the forecast period. This combined with lingering lower clouds could bring widespread low VFR to MVFR conditions, with brief periods of IFR ceilings especially tonight. Due to scattered nature of these showers, most sites have PROB30 mention in TAFs. Shower activity may be somewhat diminished Sunday morning, before the next round of showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon. Breezy to windy southeast winds will also be found through the forecast period at most sites.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.