textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog today north, redeveloping statewide tonight. - Below average temperatures along the Canadian border today with well above average temperatures along and south of Highway 200. Cooler Thursday and Friday with low chances for snow and possibly a little rain mixed in.

- Another modest warmup and breezy conditions favored for this weekend, then a cooling trend with increasing chances for precipitation early to midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 1240 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Will maintain a mention of fog north today with the low level stratus, and will expand fog for tonight for most areas. Backdoor cold front moving through the region today will shift winds to north/northeast this afternoon, with increasing low clouds from north to south through the day with fog likely accompanying the stratus. Temperatures were lowered today north, with those areas already reaching their highs for today earlier, with falling temperatures this afternoon expected.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Low clouds and areas of fog persist over portions of northern North Dakota, locally dense at times. Opted to let the Dense Fog advisory expire, and went with a Special Weather Statement for the rest of this morning with improving conditions overall expected. Other forecast updates were to winds and sky cover, mainly based on latest guidance and observations.

UPDATE Issued at 554 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Main update was to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory for Foster, Stutsman, Lamoure, and Dickey counties, and to add Ward to the advisory. It does seem like at this point, most dense fog is located along and near the upslope of the Missouri Coteau due to light easterly winds. However, there remain patches of dense fog in other parts of the north central as well. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 434 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Areas of fog persist across much of northern and eastern North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Pockets of dense fog remain as well, though is difficult to see on satellite due to an abundance of high clouds. Dense fog is also sporadic in observations and available webcams, though does seem mostly confined to parts of north central and much of eastern ND. With the difficulty in seeing where exactly the low-level stratus/fog deck is, intend on leaving the Dense Fog Advisory as-is for now and re-evaluating over the next few hours.

For today, quasi-stationary frontal boundary is essentially draped from west to east across the state, though with a northward skew over western North Dakota. Air to the north of this front is significantly cooler than to the south, which will result in a sharp contrast of highs ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s near the Canadian border to the 50s and low 60s near the ND/SD border. The sharpest gradient is progged to be along/near Highway 200. This frontal boundary will gradually sag southward through tonight, becoming quasi-stationary yet again along the ND/SD border. For Thursday, this will result in mid 20 to upper 30 degree highs for most locations north of I94, and the 40s to low 50s along and south of I94. One important note is that it's always difficult to tell exactly where these quasi-stationary frontal boundaries set up. Any drift slightly north or south could result in actual temperatures coming in moderately higher or lower than what is currently forecast for locations that end up on the "wrong" side.

Simultaneously to what is going on at the surface, a trough will begin digging into the west CONUS today and passing through the Northern Plains to end the workweek. NBM PoPs have increased a bit since yesterday with this system, thus bringing widespread 20 to 30 percent chances Thursday evening through Thursday night, and lingering in parts of the southeast on Friday. The current precipitation type is favored to be snow, though a little rain may mix in at times as well. Seasonable temperatures are then on tap for Friday, with another significant warm-up likely for this weekend into Monday. After which, another cooldown is favored for the middle of next week, along with additional precipitation chances, which could begin as soon as Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Patchy fog and IFR/LIFR stratus is present over northern ND (including KMOT), and will expand south through the afternoon into early this evening, impacting all remaining terminals. Visibility should improve this afternoon, then will deteriorate tonight again most locations. Winds will become more north/northeast behind a cold front, then more east/southeast for Thursday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.