textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for light snow central and far southwest this morning. Mainly dry this afternoon and through the weekend.

- Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend with dangerous wind chills north this morning and possibly again early Saturday morning.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with hit and miss low precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Currently, a broad trough dominates the upper air pattern over much of the U.S. with a number of cyclones meandering through the trough. In our neck of the woods, our pesky system continues to influence the weather over central and eastern ND this morning as it retrogrades northward.

The strong surface gradient winds have now subsided, although it is still a bit breezy over eastern portions of central ND this morning. The retrograding low will keep mostly cloudy skies and small chances for light snow or flurries over central ND this morning, and possibly lingering into the afternoon. However, little if any snow accumulation and no impacts are anticipated. As you move west of the Highway 83 corridor, we may see a little more sun today, but as you get into the far west, another weak wave dropping southeast is producing some light snow/flurries early this morning over far southwest ND and a few flurries could linger through mid-morning. Again, no impacts here either. In the northwest/north central, where skies haver remained mostly clear overnight, temperatures have dropped down to around 15 below and wind chills continue to hover around 30 to 35 below. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM this morning for much of the northwest and north central. Highs today will range from the single digits above zero north to the lower 20s southwest.

Tonight will be another cold night, especially in the north. Like the previous shift we again utilized the NBM50 for forecast low temperatures tonight. It is not an ideal night as the coldest air slides a bit farther east. The wave in far western ND early this morning tracks east today and then another wave drops southeast into the west later tonight, but there is a break between these two weak waves where we could see clear to partly cloudy skies with surface high pressure building over the area from the north. The recent snow is the main reason for leaning towards colder overnight lows, but the NBM50 is only modestly colder than the straight NBM. It's possible we could see some wind chills around 30 below again early Saturday morning. The areal extent looks smaller than this morning and with the current hazard ongoing, will let the day shift take another look.

As we head through the weekend we see a transition to a northwest flow pattern as the broad upper trough finally pushes east and upper level ridging pushes into the northern Rockies. We do remain cold through the weekend most areas, but we also see the temperatures climb over the far southwest. We can't rule out a period of light snow or flurries as the northwest flow pattern begins to develop. The latest NBM PoPs do depict a slight chance of light snow over the southwest on Saturday as the aforementioned wave drops southeast from Canada. There's a lot of uncertainty at this time in the track of this wave, but would expect little or no impacts with no significant snow accumulations.

After one last cold morning on Monday, we do see a significant increase in temperatures early next week. However, ensemble spread remains rather high as we see a battle between colder Canadian air and mild Pacific air as clippers continue to traverse the Northern Plains within a broad northwest flow pattern. This will result in up and down temperatures as clippers traverse the Region, but a low predictability of whether any of these systems would track across North Dakota.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will be found tonight, with some light snow in the east impacting the KJMS TAF. A steady northwest wind will also be found through tonight, perhaps bringing some patchy blowing snow. Most sites should return to VFR conditions on Friday, although some low VFR to perhaps MVFR ceilings could linger for a few sites. Lighter northwest winds will also be found on Friday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NDZ001>004-009>012-021-022.