textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are favored through the weekend, with daily highs generally in the mid 30s northeast to lower 50s southwest.

- Cooling trend expected next week, but still near to above normal temperatures favored through the middle of the week. A more active weather pattern is also favored for next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 930 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The patchy fog has mostly dissipated in the northeast and James River Valley. The latest NBM has been loaded into the forecast. The system early next week has increased in QPF and snow amounts, we will continue to watch the trends.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Main forecast concern in the very near term is fog. Rolla ASOS has been very up and down all night, with nighttime satellite imagery implying it is right on the edge of fog / very low stratus that extends west into Bottineau County. Although the bulk of reduced visibility continues to be east of the forecast area line into eastern North Dakota, we are starting to see at least modestly reduced visibilities in the eastern James River Valley, with ASOS observations around 5 miles and NDDOT webcams occasionally showing some fog. Current gridded mention of patchy fog seems appropriate for these areas so no changes needed to the forecast with this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Quiet weather continues today through the upcoming weekend.

Broadly cyclonic flow aloft persists, with the Northern Plains in between a positively tilted trough extending off the California coast and a double barrel Hudson Bay area low. At the surface, a weak low was centered in southern South Dakota, with relatively benign flow over North Dakota, leading to light surface winds this morning. Low stratus has been primarily limited to eastern North Dakota along a stationary front where we are seeing more consistently reduced visibility from fog. This fog had extended into the Rolla area earlier in the night, but latest observations show a return to full visibility, likely aided by a shift to southwesterly winds. The remainder of the forecast area has mostly clear skies, with a low chance for anything beyond very shallow fog developing in these areas.

We continue our pattern of seasonably mild and dry conditions on the southern edge of the aforementioned northwest flow. There is strong confidence among ensemble members of highs today through Saturday to be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, with some mid to upper 30s in the Turtle Mountains area. We are carrying a dry forecast, with any passing waves only expected to bring some increases in cloud cover.

As we get into next week, the first few days still look quiet for now, but NBM temperature percentiles show the start of a steady cooling trend through next week. Ensemble members continue to show troughing developing over the western CONUS, with flow across the Dakotas turning southwesterly, a favored more active pattern for our region. By the time we get to Tuesday night into Wednesday, blended POPs range from 40 to 65 percent across the state, although with temperatures still near to above freezing (especially south), there is a moderate chance for precipitation to be primarily rain during daytime hours.

There is one small minority cluster of ensemble members (10 percent) that wants to build in shallow ridging vs the dominant southwest flow solution, but even this scenario still brings widespread precipitation to the state. Latest NBM probabilities are low to medium for at least 0.25 inches of QPF over 48 hours, with the likelihood of at least 2 inches of snow over the same period ranging from 30 percent southwest to around 70 percent in the north central, where cooler temperatures would favor snow as the dominant p-type. NBM temperature spreads are pretty large by late next week, but a return to near if not slightly below average temperatures is favored, with precipitation chances continuing into the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 930 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will be light and from the west to southwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.