textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds will gradually diminish overnight though will remain breezy into Saturday.

- Very cold wind chills as low as 35 below are expected tonight across northern and central North Dakota.

- Another round of light snow and strong winds is possible Saturday night through Sunday. This could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

UPDATE

Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

With the high winds calming down in the southwest and the falling snow moving out of the state, both the High Wind Warning and Winter Weather Advisory were ended at midnight CT. Periods of a slight visibility reduction are still possible as winds will stay breezy overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 922 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

With winds continuing to gust over 50 mph over many parts of far southwest North Dakota (~60 mph just west of the border near Baker, MT), have decided to extend the High Wind Warning to midnight CST (11 PM MST). By that time expect wind to diminish per latest forecast soundings, though still remain quite breezy. Elsewhere, periods of blowing snow continue, so will continue Winter Weather Advisory until planned expiration at midnight CST.

UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Have extended the High Wind Warning over far southwest North Dakota through this evening, as latest forecast soundings continue to show ample mixing and the potential for stronger winds to mix down to the surface. Otherwise, remainder of headlines continue to be in good shape with Winter Weather Advisory over remaining areas through the evening, and Cold Weather Advisory for many locations going into effect mid- evening. Otherwise, with periods of snow continuing over much of our eastern locations, have increased snow chances through the evening. Remainder of forecast continues to be in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

This afternoon, a deep trough was digging into the Central Plains and Midwest region, with a closed low analyzed over Wisconsin and an embedded shortwave moving north to south over North Dakota. Surface low was placed well to our east, with a tight surface pressure gradient and low-level cold air advection driving very strong winds today. Across western North Dakota we are still seeing gusts topping out around 60 mph, while across central and eastern North Dakota wind gusts are generally around 45 to 50 mph. These winds, combined with light falling snow and the inch or two that has fallen throughout the event, has produced widespread blowing snow and significantly reduced visibilities.

Conditions are expected to slowly improve through the afternoon and evening as what little light snow remains tapers off, and as the winds gradually relax. We are already seeing improvement in western North Dakota as the low stratus deck shifts east, with sunny skies and rapidly increasing visibility in the Williston area. As far as headlines go, the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are scheduled to expire at 00 UTC, while the Winter Weather Advisory was extended until 06 UTC to account for any remaining areas of blowing snow through the evening, especially after sunset. Not the highest confidence in when exactly winds will drop off but will have to wait and see how winds are trending to decide if the warning needs to be extended a few hours or not.

Although winds will drop below headline criteria tonight, they are still expected to be breezy from a sustained surface pressure gradient. This, combined with Arctic air filtering in behind today's front, will lead to wind chill values as low as 35 degrees below zero for areas north and east of the Missouri River. Air temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for this hazard, valid this evening through Saturday morning.

Saturday will be relatively benign compared to the current weather as surface high pressure traverses the area, although winds will stay breezy, especially central and east. Highs will range from the single digits east to the 20s west. The break in precipitation is short-lived as guidance is confident on a clipper system moving through Saturday night into Sunday, bringing low to medium chances for light snow, another push of colder air, and strong winds. The primary forecast concern with this event is the potential for blowing snow and subsequent reduced visibilities, which could lead to hazardous travel across the area. The 12Z HREF coverage of blowing snow from light falling snow only goes until Sunday morning but is advertising medium chances for blowing snow impacts of visibilities down to half a mile. This product performed pretty well for today's event, and although winds will be lighter on Sunday, having an existing (albeit very light) snowpack could enhance potential blowing snow impacts Saturday night through Sunday.

The ECMWF EFI has central and eastern North Dakota highlighted in the 0.8 to 0.9 range for wind gusts on Sunday, as well as a shift of tails, which local research shows corresponds well with advisory-level wind gusts. With deterministic guidance advertising strong pressure rises, cold air advection, and modestly steep lapse rates, expect strong northwest winds that will increase quickly early Sunday morning and continue through the day. The latest NBM is advertising a high likelihood of 24-hour maximum wind gusts exceeding 45 mph across the entire forecast area. High temperatures on Sunday will likely occur early in the day as the clipper lets in colder air, with temperatures Sunday night falling as low as 10 degrees below zero. We could have additional wind chill concerns for this period, with apparent temperatures approaching 30 degrees below zero.

Monday will bring a chilly start to the week after the aforementioned clipper, with highs in the single digits north and east to the teens southwest. Ensemble cluster analysis is in fairly good agreement on broadly cyclonic flow dominating the synoptic pattern through the remainder of next week, with a brief warmup on Tuesday followed by a cooling trend through Friday. Blended guidance produced on and off low chances for snow as multiple shortwaves could move through the mean northwest flow, bringing breezy to windy conditions as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR to MVFR overnight as low CIGs and BLSN are still lingering. Winds will remain breezy from the north gusting near 35kts. Saturday winds will gust near 10kts from the south with VFR CIGs.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ001>005- 009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.