textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of moderate to heavy snow will continue across parts of southern North Dakota this evening. Additional snowfall totals around 1 to 2 inches are expected from the Standing Rock Reservation to the southern James River Valley, with locally higher amount possible.

- Cooler but near normal temperatures through mid week. After a brief warmup on Thursday, much colder and below normal temperatures are expected this weekend.

- Windy conditions may return Thursday, with medium to high chances for rain and snow.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong mid level frontogenesis underlying conditional instability (both upright and slantwise) continues to promote transient bands of heavy snow across southern North Dakota early this evening. Since its afternoon placement along I-94, the axis of strongest forcing has pivoted southeastward to a line from around Hettinger to Linton to Valley City. The Bismarck Airport received 1.9 inches of snow this afternoon with occasional visibility under half a mile, and we expect similar conditions under the current area of highest radar reflectivity through mid to late evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

This afternoon, broad troughing dominated the northern stream of the synoptic flow across the CONUS, with a deep low off the coast of Baja California in the southern stream. Quasi-zonal flow across the Dakotas was accompanied by a surface high pressure centered over Manitoba. A cold front was moving through the far southern part of the forecast area, with cooler air and northerly winds behind the front.

A west-east oriented band of snow developed late this morning along a band of mid-level frontogenesis and aligned with a 300mb jet streak, along with some embedded impulses moving through the mean quasi-zonal flow. These features, along with a saturated low-level profile, has been leading to light to moderate snow generally along Interstate 94 in southwest and south central North Dakota, with observed snow from Beach to Kidder County so far. Even with the band development, the thought of a general 1 to 2 inches of snow is still the expectation, with snow ratios perhaps closer to 12:1, but still not too high to where snow would be quickly accumulating. 12Z HREF probabilities continue to show a low chance of exceeding 0.20" of QPF, so although some areas could see locally higher amounts of snow due to the banding enhancement, this is an unlikely outcome for the majority of locations. As the jet streak and vort maxes slowly shift east, the band will move with it through this afternoon and into the evening before diminishing, with POPs decreasing overnight tonight in the James River Valley. Lows tonight will be in the teens north central to 20s elsewhere.

Longwave troughing across the CONUS will persist through much of the week, keeping temperatures in the lower 30s to lower 40s for the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday with relatively benign weather. Low POPs continue across far southern North Dakota on Tuesday as a shortwave passes to our south, and winds increase on Wednesday ahead of an approaching system.

There's a fair amount of uncertainty regarding a clipper system progged to move through the state late Wednesday night through Thursday. There are two camps amongst the main ensembles right now - GEFS, which shows a much stronger and warmer clipper, and the EC / Canadian members, which advertises a weaker and colder system. NBM winds have trended down again with the latest iteration as ensemble members favor the weaker solution, and the ECMWF EFI has trended down as well. The one consistency between these two scenarios is that there will be precipitation, which is why blended POPs are already up to 50 to 70 percent through the day Thursday. P-types are a broad mix of rain and snow during the day, which is when the highest precipitation chances are. The other consideration is that at first glance there would be concern for blowing snow and reduced visibility, but separating by clusters vs ensembles still shows that the colder and thus snow favored clusters have lower forecast wind speeds, which would hopefully limit any significant blowing snow concerns.

As this system exits, northwest flow aloft is favored to dominate through the weekend, with potential for multiple shortwaves to pass over the region. After the Thursday clipper, precipitation chances quickly increase again on Friday as the first of these waves approaches the region. There is low spread in NBM temperature percentiles and thus high confidence in colder temperatures this weekend, bottoming out on Sunday with highs in the teens and 20s. This also means precipitation is strongly favored to be all snow, except for potentially in far southwest North Dakota. POPs increase further through the day Saturday as a more pronounced shortwave could move across the region, and we continue to see some non-insignificant snow accumulation probabilities in the NBM 5.0 guidance. The latest data shows a broad 40 to 60 percent chance for at least 4 inches of snow over a 48-hour period, and around a 25 percent chance for at least 8 inches of snow, so it is certainly worth monitoring if you have any weekend travel plans. We are beginning to increase messaging for this weekend system by using probabilities of a quarter inch of QPF, which is a general 30 to 50 percent chance across much of western and southern North Dakota. Saturday night and Sunday night will see lows in the single digits, before a warmup is favored for the start of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 740 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Snow producing IFR to occasional LIFR visibility will continue across far southern North Dakota this evening. Heavier snow is no longer expected at KDIK or KBIS, but could return to KJMS at times throughout the evening. Chances for snow greatly diminish after midnight, but MVFR ceilings could persist across parts of southern North Dakota. There could be on and off periods of MVFR ceilings through Tuesday afternoon across southern and perhaps into northern North Dakota, but it is unlikely that there will be a solid MVFR deck for several consecutive hours. Another round of lighter snow could approach the southern TAF sites Tuesday afternoon. Mostly expecting winds around 5-10 kts through the forecast period, turning clockwise from northeasterly this evening to westerly Tuesday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.