textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well below normal temperatures continue today, followed by a strong warming trend with well above normal temperatures by the middle to end of the week.

- Medium to high chances (50-80%) for mixed precipitation Monday night through Tuesday, including a period of light freezing rain late Monday night through Tuesday morning.

- Mainly dry weather after Tuesday, with precipitation chances returning next weekend along with a cooling trend.

UPDATE

Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Adjusted sky cover based on latest satellite imagery and trends, as a SCT-BKN area of low/mid level clouds persists over portions of northwest and central areas. No other changes to the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Currently, high amplitude trough over the eastern CONUS with a building upper level ridge over the western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft along with a surface ridge of high pressure over the Northern Plains this morning. Embedded wave and right entrance region jet placement contributing to an area of low/mid level clouds from northwest/north central North Dakota south through my south central and into north central South Dakota. Expect this area of clouds to persist past sunrise, then should dissipate thereafter as forcing aloft weakens along with increasing solar energy.

The upper trough will slowly build east across the eastern CONUS over the next couple of days, with broad upper level ridging to our west expanding eastward. Our cold airmass is displaced east today and especially for tomorrow as this occurs, with temperatures moderating quickly both today into Tuesday (Tue highs in the 30s east and 50s west). Ridge rider S/WV will bring a swath of precipitation to the Northern Plains from west to east tonight through Tuesday afternoon ahead of a warm frontal zone. Given mid level WAA and likely sub-freezing sfc temperatures tonight/Tue AM, still expecting mixed precipitation with this wave. Models in good agreement with initially snow, then transitioning to a mix of freezing rain, rain, or sleet and eventually all rain west to east as the warmer air aloft overruns sub-freezing surface and near sfc air temperatures. The freezing rain is forecast to bring a few hundreths of an inch of ice accumulation overnight tonight through Tuesday morning, which may result in hazardous travel including the Tue AM commute, until temperatures warm and/or our strong mid-March solar energy takes over.

Earlier shifts mentioned the freezing rain/ice in the HWO, and will continue to do so with this product issuance. This could still be a sneaky higher-impact event depending on how much snow falls over our east (especially the Turtle Mtn region) before transitioning to liquid, and/or how much freezing rain actually occurs before any ice melts during the day. Thus, elevated messaging remains possible, including headlines. Stay tuned.

Thereafter, the large and broad upper level ridge is favored by ensembles to continue developing slowly east through the week. This pattern will favor mainly dry weather and a continued strong warming trend through the middle to end of the week (highs well into the 60s to lower 70s Thu and Fri, with 40s over the Turtle Mountains). The upper ridge is then favored to deamplify next weekend, trending temperatures cooler and perhaps some better precipitation chances returning to the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Scattered to broken ceilings around 2,500 to 4,000 ft from northwest through south central North Dakota this morning, mainly at KMOT but may at times also impact KXWA and KBIS. Otherwise VFR conditions expected with increasing mid to upper level clouds this afternoon and evening, Ceilings lower to MVFR after 06Z for all but KJMS, along with MVFR and lower visibility after 06Z as light snow and some freezing rain develop west to east.

Winds slowly transition to south/southeasterly from west to east through the 12Z TAF period, increasing after 00Z most locations.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.