textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler but near normal temperatures through mid week. After a brief warmup on Thursday, much colder and below normal temperatures are expected this weekend.

- Windy conditions may return Thursday, with medium to high chances for rain and snow.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A somewhat active southwesterly flow pattern is found over the northern Plains this morning as longwave troughing lingers over the region. With moderate to strong Fgen and modest lapse rates developing to the south of the forecast area, another round of wintry precpitation is expected to develop later this morning and afternoon. While the bulk of this precipitation is expected to remain to our south, the northern extent of this system may skim across our southern counties through the afternoon and into the early evening. Considering this, we have low chances (10 to 30 percent) for a trace of snow along the ND/SD border for today. PoPs should rapidly diminish through the evening as the system is displaced further east by high pressure sinking out of the southern Canadian Prairies. Otherwise, for today, seasonable highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures tonight drop into the lower teens northeast up to the lower 20s west and south central.

Generally quiet weather is then expected on Wednesday as high pressure lingers over the forecast area, though breezy conditions may develop across the west this afternoon as steep low to mid level lapse rates move in. With this, gusty west winds with speeds up to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH are possible Wednesday afternoon through the early evening. High temperatures on Wednesday remain normal, from the lower to mid 30s central to the upper 30s and lower 40s west.

Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn northwesterly late Wednesday and through the day Thursday as the longwave trough is displaced further to the east. There is decent agreement between ensemble member families on a strong shortwave and an associate low pressure system dropping out of the southern Canadian Prairies early Thursday morning through Thursday night. The greatest uncertainty regarding this system is its track, which has ramifications on the type of precpitation we can expected, and the strength of potential winds. A majority cluster (approximately 60 percent of ensemble members) favors a more northerly track of this low pressure system. In this scenario, precpitation would be expected to fall as rain and snow through the afternoon, as much of the south remains under the warm sector of the low. Of more concern is the potential for very strong winds in this scenario. CAA is expected to increase sharply through the late afternoon and early evening as the trailing cold front moves in from the northwest which, along with steep low and mid level lapse rates, would allow winds from a moderate to strong 700mb jetstreak to mix down toward this surface. With this, at least Wind Advisory criteria winds could be anticipated, if not approaching High Wind Warning criteria. There may be also be some concerns for blowing snow in this scenario, though that may depend on how quickly a changeover from a rain-snow mix to all snow would occur in the late afternoon and evening. A minority cluster (approximately 40 percent of members) also exists, which instead advertises a more southerly track for the low pressure system. With this, mainly snow would be anticipated across the forecast area as we remain on the cool side of the low. In this scenario, the strongest winds will remain well to the south of the forecast area, with perhaps only gusty winds possible in the far southwest. The uncertainty in the winds between these two scenarios is reflected well by the EFI during this period, with only a low highlight of 0.6 across the southwest, but with a shift of tails across much of the west and the south central during this period. In either scenario, overall accumulations of snow are expected to remain fairly light, with only a chance (20 to 40 percent) for portions of the north to exceed 2 inches overall.

Behind the Thursday system, strict northwesterly flow is anticipated to persist across the northern Plains through the early weekend allowing for a cooling trend to bring us back down to near to slightly below normal temperatures for this time of year. This flow pattern would also allow for a number of shortwave perturbations and associated clipper system to promote chances for precpitation across western and central North Dakota. As of the current forecast cycle, much of western and portions of central North Dakota has low to medimum chances (30 to 55 percent) to exceed 2 inches of additional snowfall Friday through Sunday, and a low chance (10 to 30 percent) to exceed 6 inches of snowfall through this same period. The majority of additional snow during this period would be associated with a comparatively deep trough moving across the region Saturday through Sunday. Behind this trough, there is high ensemble confidence on strong ridging push into the Great Plains through much of the coming week, promoting a warming trend that will again promote slightly to well above normal temperatures for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Snow promoting MVFR to IFR visibility across the far south central will continue to taper off through early tonight, with no impacts at terminals anticipated at this time. Pockets of MVFR ceilings will linger across the south overnight, expected to occasionally impact KDIK and KBIS through the morning. Another round of light snow is expected to skirt across southwestern and south central North Dakota this afternoon, though confidence in impacts at any given terminal remains low at this time. Light winds up to 5 to 10 knots are expected to turn clockwise through the TAF period, from the east southeast tonight to the west northwest through the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.