textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwesterly winds with gusts up to 55 mph starting Thursday morning and lingering through Thursday night.

- Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Notably milder temperatures to end the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 949 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Light rain showers are present mainly south of I94, though may meander a bit further north tonight. Adjusted PoPs based on the latest radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Organized radar echoes are present mainly in northwestern South Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota, and are gradually working further into southwestern and south central parts of the state. However, the latest model forecast soundings suggest a fair amount of dry air to overcome, with uncertainty as to just how far north saturation will occur. Based on the latest CAMs and radar trends, increased areal coverage of 20 percent PoPs mainly along and south of I94 through tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Near zonal to southwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains as we remain stuck between a two upper level features. The first, a stacked low developing over the southern Plains, is expected to lift to the east this afternoon through the evening. With an inverted surface trough stretching to the north and the increasing moisture returns up ahead of this low, there are some chances (10 to 30 percent) for light precipitation over portions of southwestern and south central North Dakota late this afternoon through early this evening. Overall QPF is expected to be light, around a few hundreths at most for any given location. The second, found to the north of the forecast area, is a stacked low/opening trough over Alberta hat progged to move into Saskatchewan overnight, lofting a cold front across the area that'll begin to turn surface winds tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, conditions today across western and central North Dakota are expected to remain fairly calm and dry, with partly to mostly cloudy skies everywhere but the far northwest through this afternoon and seasonable highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected today. With the passage of the cold front overnight, low temperatures across the west are expected to drop as low as the lower to mid 30s west to the upper 30s to lower 40s central. With increasing winds also expected behind the passage of the cold front, we will opt to hold back on issuing a freeze headline at this time.

For Thursday, the passage of the cold front and associated CAA across the area is expected to promote strong northwesterly winds through much of the day, with sustained speeds up to 30 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH expected to mix down from a fairly well organized low to mid level jet. The strongest winds in the morning and early afternoon are anticipated to be found across the west, and especially the southwest, as the core of the jet drops down across the area. Lingering strong winds are then expected across the south central through the evening as the aforementioned cold front exists to the southeast of the forecast area. EFI values during this period are broadly around 0.8-0.9, with a shift of tails across portions of the northwest, where the core of the jet is expected to linger through the morning and afternoon. We have opted to issue a Wind Advisory for all of western and central North Dakota starting 15Z Thursday morning through 05Z Thursday night (10 AM CDT / 9 AM MDT to 12 AM CDT / 11 PM MDT). Otherwise for Thursday, a few showers will be possible across the north central into the northern James River Valley in the afternoon and evening as the opening trough dives south across Minnesota. Seasonable cool highs in the mid 40s west to mid 50s south central are expected with the cold air mass settling over the northern Plains behind the front. With rapidly diminishing winds and clearing skies overnight, lows dropping in the mid 20s to lower 30s west can be anticipated, which could promote a widespread freeze across much of the forecast area.

Condition across the northern Plains are then expected to warm as we head into the end of the week as an upper level ridge builds in across the west, with forecast highs mainly in the 50s on Friday becoming highs in the 60s to lower 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Looking ahead into next week, the ensemble has moderately strong agreement (approximately 85 percent of members) on more moderate temperatures as the ridge is squashed by a northern Canadian low, with highs in the 50s and 60s forecast through the early portions of the week. A low membership, underdispersed cluster (approximately 15 percent of members, all GEFS) also exists, which instead advertises the ridge surviving through the midweek, along with seasonably warm temperatures as high as the 60s and 70s, as the influence of the northern Canadian low remains far to the north of the forecast area. Either scenario then captures a pattern shift back toward cooler and wetter weather in the extended turn as a strong Pacific low makes landfall in the southwestern CONUS and makes it way into the Great Plains Wednesday through the end of the workweek, though specifics remain uncertain this far out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Light rain is possible mainly along and south of I94 through the night tonight, though ceilings and visibility should remain VFR. The exception being in the James River Valley where low- level stratus has yet to clear off today, though should within the next couple hours. A passing cold frontal boundary Thursday will result in strong northwesterly winds developing during the day, which will linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013- 017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051- 055>062.