textproduct: Bismarck
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near critical fire weather conditions over much of western North Dakota this afternoon and early evening.
- Above average temperatures forecast through the work week with a cool-down this weekend.
- Dry conditions through Thursday, with an unsettled weather pattern to end the week bringing low to medium precipitation chances and increasing winds.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Current surface analysis places low over Oregon into the Idaho Panhandle, with high over southern Manitoba into North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Upper level analysis places low off the Pacific Northwest coast while generally zonal flow remains over the Northern Plains. Over our area, quiet weather continues as surface high moves on through.
For today, high moves off to the east with winds becoming south-southeasterly in its wake. Otherwise, a quiet day is on tap though low humidity values are expected to develop, particularly over parts of western North Dakota. This is also where winds will be on the increase to around 15 to 25 mph, combining with the low humidity to produce near critical fire weather conditions.
On Tuesday, broad ridging enhances over the midwest nudging into the plains, keeping dry weather over our area but resulting in a warmer temperatures over our area. High temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s can be expected, which are around 10 to 15 degrees above average.
As we get into Wednesday, aforementioned low drops southerly off the west coast, then pushes onshore late Wednesday into Thursday. In response, ridge amplifies over the plains. This will keep very mild temperatures over our area.
Forecast becomes a bit more tricky as we get into the end of the week as another trough off the Pacific Northwest moves onshore and interacts with the low. The trouble with latest guidance is how the low lifts up along the trough and the timing with this. Nevertheless, this brings low to medium precipitation chances to our area Friday into Saturday, including the potential for some thunderstorms.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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