textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain above normal through Wednesday, with windy conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon for wind gusts up 55 MPH.

- High Wind Watch has been issued for winds up to 70 MPH Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A Winter Storm Watch has also been issued for the north central for possible blizzard conditions starting Wednesday night.

- A trend back to colder temperatures is expected for the latter half of the week. However, both highs and lows will vary greatly from northeast (cooler) to southwest (warmer).

UPDATE

Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Winds are just now starting to increase across the west to near Advisory level. The Wind Advisory continues as planned today but it was updated to 55 MPH winds instead of 45 MPH.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 440 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently zonal flow straight from the Pacific Ocean is present across the Northern Plains. This, along with a warm front is keeping temperatures very mild overnight. At the surface a Alberta Clipper is passing by the state, staying in southern Canada. A trailing cold front off this low will move through North Dakota this morning. Behind it, strong pressure rises and cold air advection (CAA) will move in, creating strong west winds. These winds will gust up to 55 MPH this morning and afternoon. This is what the on going Wind Advisory is for. The Advisory has been updated to included the 55 MPH wording as the pressure rises are stronger than before.

After today, our attention then moves to the possible December record breaking low pressure system Wednesday through Thursday. A very strong low will form in southern Canada again, aimed at North Dakota. Models are actually in disagreement where the center of the low will go. Many have it moving through the state, but some of the hi-res models have the center staying in southern Canada, then dipping into northern Minnesota.

WINDS:

Winds will start southernly in the warm sector of the surface low, then turn northwest as the first push of winds start. This is when the cold front sweeps into the west sometime between 21z and 00z Wednesday evening. This weaker push with some pressure rises on the backside of the front, will create wind gusts around 55 MPH to start. This push will move west to east through the state in the evening. Around midnight the backside of the low will hit western North Dakota like a freight train. Very cold air with extreme pressure rises and a very tight pressure gradient force will surge winds up to 65-70 MPH. The highest winds look to be in the west and southwest right now. Some models soundings have the top of the mixing layer reaching near 80kts of wind to mix down in the southwest part of the state. That seems a little extreme but it is something to watch, and sort of fits the "possible December record low pressure" vibe. The EFI wind gust values are at a climatologically max with values of 0.95 to 1.00. This is a very rare event according to that, and if the low does set the December low pressure record, then that makes sense. The higher pressure on the backside of the system will calm winds across the state after 21z Thursday. A High Wind Watch is in effect for this timeframe, and will be upgraded to a Warning when we get closer.

PRECIPITATION:

Freezing rain will be the main p-type Wednesday morning in the northwest. The warm air aloft from the zonal flow, but surface temperatures below zero to start, will create areas of freezing rain. Late Wednesday morning the surface temperatures should warm enough to change this to rain. Rain across most of the state will be likely (60%) by noon CST. Starting around 21z that cold front will start to switch the rain to snow west to east across the state. The north central will have the longest residence time in the snow. Our current forecast there has 2 to 4 inches, and less than 1 inch elsewhere. The NBM probabilities of 4 inches in the north are around 30 percent, but for 2 inches that increases to 50 to 70 percent. As you would imagine falling snow with very strong winds will likely create blizzard conditions. We have issued a Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions in the north central from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Snow squalls are also possible. The parameter continues to peg the southwest corner for the highest chance Wednesday evening with the wrap around push of snow.

TEMPERATURES:

Temperatures through this event will change a lot. Ahead of the system Wednesday's highs will be the upper 30s to upper 40s. Then very cold Arctic air on the backside of the low will quickly plummet temps after midnight. Lows Thursday morning across the north will be 10 below zero with dangerous wind chills nearing 35 below. Temperatures Thursday will only recover to around zero in the north, and 10 above elsewhere. The southwest will of course be warmer in the 20s with Chinook winds back with zonal flow.

The rest of the week zonal flow with another Clipper is forecast. This Clipper would bring more snow Friday into Saturday and keep temperatures colder than normal. Breezy winds are also possible with this Clipper too. As of now, the only snow accumulations would be around 1 inch in the north central. Through the weekend and into early next week a large weak ridge could develop and maintain near normal temperatures. Temperatures spreads are very large in the NBM to reflect uncertainty in the models.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period with strong wind shear this morning. This afternoon west winds will gust near 45kts but the wind shear will stop. After sunset winds will calm down to 10kts from the south.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051. High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for NDZ001-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for NDZ002>005-011>013. High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.