textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold wind chills across northwest and north central North Dakota until mid-morning.

- Below average temperatures through the workweek, then warming to near or above average for the weekend and into next week.

- 30 to 50 percent chance for light snow mainly Friday night through Saturday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

There are some fairly organized radar returns in northeastern Montana that are slowly approaching northwestern ND. However, with a lot of dry air to overcome, wouldn't expect much more than a few flurries should anything reach the ground. Thus maintained a dry forecast for now. Otherwise, a few locations within the Cold Weather Advisory have seen wind chills drop to 30 below zero or colder, while numerous others are in the upper 20s below zero. Therefore, the Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Elongated surface high pressure will continue to gradually center over the state today and essentially stall through the middle of the week. After which it is progged to become more organized while pushing off to the south to finish out the week. Meanwhile, well amplified west CONUS trough will more or less remain in place through the remainder of the workweek. Then it should slide eastward and rebuild multiple times this weekend through early next week. With this ridge, northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place through the workweek resulting in mostly dry conditions and much cooler temperatures northeast compared to southwest. Despite mostly dry conditions, shortwave energy could produce light snow mainly in the southwest Wednesday night through Thursday night with little to no accumulations expected as of now.

For this weekend, models favor a clipper system passing through the Northern Plains. This system currently maintains the best precipitation chances for the period with 30 to 50 percent chances for light snow initially in the west Friday night, then passing through the state Saturday. Breezy southerly winds are possible with this system mainly Friday night through the day Saturday.

In regard to aforementioned temperatures, expect consistently colder temperatures northeast compared to southwest for the remainder of the workweek. This translates to highs mainly in the low single digits on either side of zero in the northeast to highs in the upper teens to low 20s in the southwest. Other than this morning, prevailing surface high pressure will result in light winds that generally allow wind chills to remain warmer than Cold Weather Advisory criteria across the CWA. However, the north central is a little more iffy, especially Thursday night. For this weekend and into next week, transitory ridging strongly favors the return of above average temperatures to most of the state.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. However, low VFR ceilings are forecast in parts of western and central ND tonight, therefore wouldn't be totally surprised if some MVFR ceilings aren't observed when all is said and done.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025.