textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to high chances for rain and possibly some wet snow Sunday into Monday.

- Mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest of the work week.

- Below average temperatures continue through the weekend, and likely through the first half of next week, then warming up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Currently the upper level low continues to remain near the International border. Creating active diurnal flow over the state. Isolated pockets of the diurnal cumulus in the northwest and north central have snowflakes falling out of them. This slight chance of snow will continue through the afternoon. With the pressure gradient from the surface low also in far southern Canada, winds are breezy across the state, especially in the southwest. Most of this wind is enhanced by the diurnal mixing so starting at sunset the winds will relax. There is near- critical fire weather concern in the central part of the state with the breezy winds and afternoon relative humidity 25 to 30 percent. High temperatures are only around 50 in those areas however.

Slight southwest flow off the Colorado Rockies is still forecast to pop a low out and into the Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. Model emsambles continue to still disagree in the low track unfortunately. The low will either travel through eastern South Dakota and bring widespread rain to most of North Dakota, or travel through Iowa and mostly the southeast part of the state will get the rain. The NBM has been maintaining likely (60+ percent) chances across all of southern and central North Dakota, but the highest QPF is in the southeast, where over an inch could fall. We will continue monitoring the trends. Timing looks like the rain would move into southwest or south central North Dakota late Sunday morning and continue through most of Monday as the low moves into Minnesota. Winds either way will be windy in the eastern half of the state, including the James River Valley Monday afternoon. This will need a Wind Advisory likely.

The rest of next week will be mostly dry with a warming trend. A trough digging through the West Coast late Monday will move into Montana Tuesday and kick this never-end upper level low in southern Canada to the east and out of here. Then zonal flow will take over mid week and allow temperatures to warm back to normal or higher by the end of next week. NBM temperatures spreads late next week are agreeing in the above normal temperatures, potentially nearing 70 by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR and breezy, with isolated snow showers in the northwest and north central. Winds will continue west 15 to 30kts through this evening. CIGs will remain VFR and lift.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.