textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence in moderate (3 inches or more) to heavy (6 inches or more) snow continues to increase mainly for Tuesday through Wednesday. The highest probabilities (40 to 60 percent) of heavy snow are in northern and eastern North Dakota.

- Well above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions will continue through Monday, with daily highs generally in the 30s northeast to 50s southwest.

- Rapid cooling trend during the next workweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue through Monday with highs generally in the 30s northeast to 50s southwest. Weak shortwave energy embedded in otherwise zonal flow aloft, along with a little mid-level moisture, could produce some light precipitation mainly during the day Sunday, with the highest probability in the northwest. Precipitation type could be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow in the morning. However, any precipitation is currently expected to be light with little to no accumulation. And with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing before rapidly warming above freezing, impacts should be little to none and for a short duration. Still, will continue to monitor should anything change.

Of higher interest due to higher impacts is the potential winter storm for next week. Models are coming into better agreement that a trough will dig into the west CONUS late this weekend before lifting up through the Central and Northern Plains during the middle of the workweek. Though uncertainty remains, models are starting to come into agreement towards a more tightly wound, yet relatively progressive Colorado/hybrid low. This means that there could be fairly widespread heavy (6 inches or more) snow along with gusty winds that could produce periods of blowing snow.

Precipitation is currently favored to start Tuesday in the west before expanding across the area later in the day and overnight. The heaviest snow is also favored from Tuesday evening through the overnight hours and lingering into Wednesday morning. After which, snow will likely begin to end from west to east. Additional light snow is possible from another system to finish out the workweek.

As of now, the NBM produces the strongest winds in the northwest during the start of the system Tuesday afternoon. This is significant in that snow ratios are progged to be lower towards the start of this system before increasing as more colder air is brought in Tuesday night and Wednesday. Should things play out in this manner, and it's definitely not a given, then blowing snow impacts would be reduced in duration, coverage, and overall intensity. That said, even in this case, rapid changes in visibility will be possible, especially while snow is falling.

Currently, NBM 5.0 probabilities of 6 inches or more of snow for this system are around 50 to 60 percent for most locations north of Highway 200. These are only marginally higher than the NBM 4.3, except in the northwest where the 5.0 is around 20 percent higher. Which one winds up being more "right" in the end is hard to say. However, it does seem to highlight where some of the higher uncertainty remains.

In regard to aforementioned temperatures, confidence is very high in a rapid decrease from Monday through Thursday as the winter weather system impacts the area. Beyond that, things are a little more uncertain in regard to whether an Arctic high may take hold over the area, or if ridging and above average temperatures will return. Though the current NBM 25th/75th temperature spreads favor something that is seasonable to seasonably cool overall to finish out the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light winds along with VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.