textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain/snow showers this evening, with higher chances Thursday evening through Friday morning (highest chances (60 to 80 percent) are along and east of Highway 83).

- Very windy conditions Thursday through Friday. Patchy to areas of blowing snow also possible.

- Well above average temperatures will generally continue through the middle of the week, with highs Wednesday more seasonable in the east.

- Late this week through this weekend, expect cooler temperatures with below average temperatures northeast to near average temperatures southwest.

UPDATE

Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overall, the forecast for tonight remains on track. Modified sky cover to better reflect satellite and trends, and will maintain POPs west and central for scattered rain and snow showers.

Back edge of the stratus has entered the Turtle Mountain region, with clearing expanding west and southwestward behind a sfc trough/backdoor cold front over the next few hours. Frontal boundary then stalls overnight across the west, which will maintain cloudy conditions there into daytime Wed morning, before moving back east again Wed afternoon. Scattered showers will continue for another few hours, then should start to wane late tonight as forcing aloft decreases.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

I opted to increase POPs to high chances (~50 percent) for an area of precipitation moving south-southwest across central North Dakota. Also opted to go with showers/coverage (isolated/scattered) wording. Sky cover was also modified based on latest satellite imagery and trends/CAMs.

North-northwest flow aloft with an upper level jet streak advancing south across south central Canada, nosing into the Northern Plains. Left exit region upper level jet dynamics spreading south across central North Dakota, interacting with a subtle sfc trough to result in some light precipitation. A mix of rain and snow expected, though not out of the question for some light freezing precipitation if we lose ice aloft.

Sfc trough/backdoor cold front will also continue to spread low level clouds westward, with some clearing over my east later this evening/overnight (back edge of the low stratus quickly moving southwest across southern Manitoba) with a sfc high developing south into eastern ND late.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

This morning's rain showers in the southwest have mostly diminished with some lingering clouds still in place. A backdoor cold front will push across the CWA from northeast to southwest this evening through tonight. Isolated light rain or snow showers along with increased low level clouds will be found along and behind this front. Perhaps some light freezing rain/drizzle is also possible with this front as some soundings indicate limited ice present aloft. For now confidence was only high enough for slight PoPs of rain and snow through tonight. Breezy northwest winds will also linger through this evening, diminishing tonight, with some light and variable winds possible by early Wednesday morning. Look for colder lows in the single digits above and below zero east, to the 20s west. With the mentioned light winds, perhaps some patchy fog is possible tonight into Wednesday morning although the increased clouds across the area are expected to limited fog formation. Front stalls then lifts eastward on Wednesday. Look for lingering low clouds across much of the area as a result. Flurries or perhaps some freezing drizzle may also be found with these lingering low clouds Wednesday, although lift in the lower levels looks to be limited with surface high to the east of this boundary. Added in some 10 percent pops, yet kept the forecast dry for now. Mild temperatures in the 30s and 40s will continue across the west on the warm side of this front, with 20s east of this front. Winds will also be light and westerly for Wednesday. Surface trough will push out the low clouds Wednesday night and bring an increased westerly wind. Look for mainly dry conditions as well. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be slightly warmer and generally in the 20s to lower 30s.

A sharp northwest flow gradient then sets up for Thursday and Friday with multiple waves expected to move through in the flow along with a cold front on Thursday and another reinforcing cold front on Friday. Main impacts from this pattern will be strong winds both Thursday and Friday. Current NBM forecast has widespread advisory level winds currently in place. There is still potential for High Wind Warning level winds, although the better cold air advection looks to come each morning and the better pressure rises are not well aligned with this cold air advection. ECMWF EFI values are still high with some small shift of tails starting to show up. For now left NBM winds, and will continue to monitor for any needed highlights. With these mentioned disturbances will be chances for rain and snow Thursday, changing to all snow Thursday night and lingering chances through Friday. Accumulations for the two day event look to overall be light, with NBM chances for more than an inch 10 to 50%. With the strong winds and falling snow there could be some blowing snow concerns, especially in the east. Blowing snow model showing 60% chance for advisory level impacts. The lack of blowable snow and heavier falling snow may limit the blizzard potential, although will be worth monitoring if higher snowfall amounts are forecast. Mild high temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s will remain on Thursday, cooling into the teens and 20s Friday. Lows will be in the single digits to teens, with perhaps some below zero low temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning. Some near cold weather advisory wind chills will be possible in the east Friday night into Saturday.

Clusters then indicate northwest flow downstream of a large ridge of high pressure could linger around through at least the weekend. Temperature spreads still remain somewhat broad, although most ensembles showing a gradient of cooler temperatures northeast to near or perhaps slightly above normal temperatures southwest, with a mix of near to cooler than normal in-between. This will again depend on the placement of the ridge to our west, hence some continued broad temperature ranges in the NBM. Weak disturbances in this northwest flow could provide for slight chances of snow, mainly on the cooler side of the northwest flow. Breezy to windy northwest winds may also be found at times. Right now the NBM and ECMWF EFI hinting the windier day of the weekend coming on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings all terminals to start the 06Z period. Light rain or snow showers will also be possible central and west for another few hours after 06Z. Ceilings will improve east overnight (KJMS) and then into central parts of North Dakota, though how far west remains uncertain. Both KMOT and KBIS should see some improvement to VFR, though to what degree and duration is up in the air. MVFR-IFR ceilings persist west through Wednesday morning, with MVFR conditions redeveloping central at some point on Wednesday, followed by all terminals forecast at VFR Wed evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.