textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with only a few hit and miss showers possible through the weekend.

- Near to above normal temperatures through the weekend, then cooler early to mid-week next week.

- Dry conditions combined with breezy to windy conditions could lead to near critical fire weather conditions this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

High clouds are now starting to shift into northern portions of the area. Otherwise, quiet weather continues.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Quiet weather remains over the area with no changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

The upper level pattern remains locked in northwesterly flow as an upper level ridge builds to the west and an upper level low remains stalled over the Hudson Bay. An upper level ridge will continue pivot northeastward into the Canadian Plains increasing upper level heights across the Northern Plains. This in turn will lead to warmer temperature this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Highs this afternoon are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s. Overnight low will remain above freezing tonight in the mid 30s to 40s. Tomorrow temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s to lower 70s. A cold front is forecast to move through the region tomorrow afternoon leading to windy conditions across the state. Windy and dry conditions are forecast to persist through the weekend leading to near critical fire weather conditions. There is a chance for rain Saturday evening across the eastern half of the state along the frontal passage.

Sunday, windy conditions will continue as another surface low passes to the north of the region leading windy conditions due to a strong pressure gradient. Sunday temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60s to lower 70s as the upper level ridge remains in the area. Monday another cold front is forecast to move through the region bringing in low chances for rain and windy conditions. Temperatures are forecast to drop below normal into the 50s as a cooler airmass advects into the region. The northwesterly flow pattern will continue through next week with the below normal temperatures in the 50s continuing through the middle of the week. Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer through the end of next week as another ridge could build out west. The cool and dry pattern looks to remain locked in through the extended.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A cold front will push through the area Saturday, with south to southwesterly winds switching to the northwest and becoming gusty.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.