textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- High chances for rain showers (70-100%) late tonight into Monday. Greatest chances over central and eastern North Dakota.

- Becoming windy tonight, with the strongest winds expected on Monday before diminishing Monday night. Gusts around 50 to 60 mph possible over western North Dakota. Wind Advisory in effect for most of the area on Monday.

- Occasional rain shower chances mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge on the east side of the Rockies and moving east into the Northern Great Plains. This will keep much of the area under quiet and pleasant conditions. A change in weather will occur later tonight. A low pressure center, currently located over southeastern Washington, will bring high chances for rain showers and increase winds.

Rain: The latest 12Z model convective allowing models have rain starting as early as 1 AM MDT / 2 AM CDT, from the southwest and expanding northeast through the rest of the morning. 12Z HREF has over 75% chances for greater than half inch for the event from Highway 52 and northeast. Chances for a quarter of an inch or greater is 50% or higher from the Bismarck to Williston and northeast. The southwest corner of the state has lowest chances to receive anything above a tenth of inch, but a few model members hint at a rumble or two which can add a little more rain accumulation. Rain chances will diminish by the midday to early afternoon, clearing from west to east.

Winds: At first, winds will predominately be from the southeast today (in the southwest) and widespread tonight with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph; the strongest winds will be in the southwest portion of the state. As the low pressure center gets closer, the pressure gradient will increase across much of the state and switching the wind direction from the southeast to more westerly to northwesterly. Winds will gust high as 50 to 60 mph by the afternoon. As result, there is a Wind Advisory in effect starting at 12 PM CDT /11 AM MDT for the western half of the area. The central and east will start 3 PM CDT. Winds will start to relax by late Monday night.

Beyond Monday: Models show several weather disturbances passing over the area, bringing chances for rain showers. The synoptic pattern will bring a slight warming due to minor ridging.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Conditions will deteriorate from southwest to northeast by the late evening with rain showers. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and possibly lower visibility down to 2-3 miles after 06Z tonight. Conditions will start to improve after 15Z to1 17Z from the west to the east. Low chances for a rumble of thunder in the late night to the morning.

Gusty southeast winds will develop later today primarily over southwest North Dakota, with gusts to around 35 kts over far southwest North Dakota by late afternoon. Gusty southeast winds then spread northeast overnight across much of western and central North Dakota. Gusty winds will shift to west to northwest towards the end of the forecast period and gusting high as 40 to 45kts.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Monday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Monday night for NDZ001>003-009-010-017>020- 031>033-040>044-055>062. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ004- 005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048.