textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light accumulating snow likely mainly over the southwest tonight into Thursday.

- Below average temperatures (cooler northeast, warmer southwest) continue through the workweek, then near to above normal for the weekend and into next week.

- Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for light snow and a wintry mix Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light snow continues mainly in the southwest, but also into the far northwest. Overall, snow remains light with visibility generally in excess of 2SM, which usually translates to accumulations of around a tenth of an inch per hour. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Periods of light snow continue to pass through southwest into parts of far northwest North Dakota. For late evening update, have increased chances through this area with multiple locations reporting snow. With that said, it has remained rather light, with only minor accumulations at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 608 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

For late evening update, most of the going forecast looks in good shape, with a few echos starting to show up on radar over parts of western North Dakota, but so far no indications of anything at the ground at this point per latest observations. With that said, low chances remain in place for if/when some snow may occur. Better chances still look to be later this evening with the approach of the upper wave and the surface low sliding south. Therefore, will keep precipitation chances in tact, but will increase cloud cover throughout the west as high cloud cover has pushed over much of the area, and lower clouds remain over the west.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Northwest flow continues to dominate the Dakotas, with a shortwave ridge in the jet stream over Montana. This northwest flow will carry a surface low pressure through South Dakota tonight through Thursday. A blanket of clouds cover the southwest half of the state, keeping temperatures in the teens. In the northeast part of the state in the clear skies, temperatures are in the single digits below and above zero.

This evening the surface low will slide into western South Dakota from eastern Montana. Light snow will begin across western North Dakota around sunset, slowly expanding east and south through the night. The highest chances for snow will between New Salem and Medora to the South Dakota border from 1am to 4am CT. At least a trace of snow is likely from Crosby to Bismarck to Linton and west. The far southwest will have the highest chance for 1 inch of snow, with NBM probabilities of 40 percent. Some of the CAMs have backed off on the snow totals, not sure if that trend will continue or not. Overnight lows will remain below normal with lows in the north in the teens below zero, to the teens above in the southwest.

On the backside of the system, temperatures will warm slightly in the southwest and central. The far north central will still have highs in the single digits above and below zero. Winds will remain light through Thursday. Friday a low and shortwave will dive through the Great Lakes and briefly bring snow flurries to North Dakota Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday a shortwave with surface Alberta Clipper will move through, bringing a chance for a wintry mix and more light snow. The precipitation will move west to east across the state starting in the morning. There is a chance of freezing rain in the west, but there is very little ice accumulation expected. A backdoor cold front will then cool temperatures aloft and mainly snow is then expected in the afternoon and evening across most of the state. At least a trace of snow is expected through the state, with a 40 percent chance of 1 inch in the south central and central. Snow will end west to east Saturday evening.

The flow will then be more zonal through next week, allowing a drastic warmup. Temperatures will likely be above normal. Highs could be in the 30s and maybe 40s. Multiple waves look to move through and look mostly dry as of now, but there are slight hints of rain or snow in the models next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light snow continues over much of southwestern ND and into parts of the northwest. Overall, snow remains light with visibility under falling snow mostly MVFR, though some IFR visibilities have been observed as well. Ceilings for the most part are currently low VFR, though pockets of MVFR ceilings are present as well and may expand a bit overnight. There will likely be a break in the snow for much of Thursday before another round is possible later in the afternoon and through the overnight hours. Coverage of snow Thursday night looks very similar to tonight in that it's favored mostly over the southwest and into the far northwest.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.