textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak system tracking across the Rockies will bring low (20 to 30 percent) chances for light rain or snow on Tuesday. Otherwise mostly dry through the upcoming week.

- Seasonable to mild temperatures are expected through the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 941 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The front continues to push across western North Dakota switching the winds from southerly to westerly. There are non updates needed at this time as the forecast remain on track.

UPDATE Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave that is traversing the dampened upper level ridge over eastern Montana. This wave could bring showers to the northwest tonight, but chances remain low as the mid levels remain dry. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Overall a mostly dry and seasonable to mild pattern will be in place through the week.

A dry cold front will move southeast through the forecast area tonight, bringing little more than a wind shift and some mid level clouds. Lows are expected to range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs Monday, behind the cold front will be mainly in the 50s.

Another clipper system and it's associated surface low will move through the area Tuesday. The low predictable nature of this system is reflected in that the NBM only now beginning to indicate some low precipitation chances due to the large envelope of ensemble solutions. Wouldn't be surprised to see chances rise as model agreement increases. Any precipitation amounts are expected to be light. Currently, the NBM is depicting a 20-30 percent probability for at least a tenth of an inch of liquid in the 24 hour period ending late Tuesday evening (most of which would fall during the day Tuesday), in about a 50-70 mile wide swath from northwest to southeast ND. Depending on the timing of the wave, we could see some snow or a mix of rain and snow as the system enters western ND Tuesday morning. Any snow amounts would be negligible and by mid to late morning precip is forecast to be all rain.

This wave does help to deepen an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and will allow for a chunk of colder Canadian air to drop south through Minnesota and the eastern two thirds of North Dakota. This will bring a significant cooldown, especially to eastern portions of central ND for Wednesday through Friday. There is about a 20 degree difference in high temperatures from far eastern to far western ND each day. However, the mid 30s forecast for the James River Valley on Thursday are still within 4-8 degrees of the normal high at Jamestown for this time of year. Definitely seasonable, but on the cool side of normal. That goes to show how mild we have been, and how mild it will continue to be over western ND. There is also some disagreement in the placement and extent of the cold air mid to late week. Current NBM ensemble spreads are on the order of 15 to 20 degrees for the Wednesday through Friday timeframe for all major sites. We'll see how they eventually end up, but a large range in temperatures (especially daytime highs) from west to east looks to be in the cards.

By the weekend, upper level ridging is situated over the area, keeping it dry and mild with widespread 50s and 60s expected across the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will eventually shift to westerly tomorrow as a front moves through the region. This will bring forth some LLWS across the region tonight ahead of the frontal passage. Mid to high clouds will continue to stream across the area with maybe a chance of a shower or two out west.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.