textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions remain across southwest and south central portions through this evening.

- Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the state today. A few storms could be strong to severe mainly in the James River Valley and east.

- Highs in the 70s on Tuesday, then warming back up to the 80s and 90s by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Stalled front in the central and east will push eastward through this evening as will a secondary front and upper level west moving in from Montana. A few showers and perhaps isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible along the stalled front through this evening. The stronger storms should mainly be confined to the James River Valley and eastward as a gradient of instability will remain into this evening along with high amounts of shear. Quarter sized hail and winds to 60 mph will be the main threats. Meanwhile, the secondary disturbance could bring a band of mainly showers from west to east through this evening with some isolated thunderstorms. Wildfire smoke will also linger through this evening, with the secondary front clearing out smoke tonight. Lastly, a Red Flag Warning remains in place across southwestern and south central portions for lower RH and gusty winds into this evening. Tonight, clearing skies and lowering winds will bring much cooler temperatures as a surface high moves in. Look for lows in the 40s to lower 50s as a result. Some patchy fog is possible, although a steady northwest wind should limit this potential.

Tuesday and Wednesday will overall be dry with cooler temperatures an some breezy northwest winds. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s, with slightly warmer highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday. Exiting surface high with northwest flow aloft could bring some breezy northwest winds. Meanwhile, low RH values could be found each day especially in the southwest. If these breezy winds and RH values can align then at least near critical fire weather conditions are possible. Currently the stronger winds look to be north and east of these lower RH values, thus will have to monitor for any shifts in the forecast.

Thursday through the end of the week, upper level ridge builds and moves inland. Temperatures will depending on if this ridge flattens and brings zonal flow or stays robust. Both solutions bring a general warming trend to end the week. Highs in the 80s and 90s are forecast as a result, yet NBM spreads indicate it could be warmer. Look for lows generally in the 50s to 60s during this time period. This appears to be a mainly dry pattern to end the week, unless any weak disturbances in northwest flow can bring a few showers. With this dry pattern afternoon humidity values look to remain low through the end of the week. Winds for now look to overall be light, yet will have to also monitor for any changes as gusty winds and low RH could bring at least some increased fire weather concerns at times during this time period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Lingering low clouds along a cold front, combined with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, could bring low VFR to periods of MVFR today. Gusty northwest winds will also be found behind this front today. These northwest winds will linger wildfire smoke across the area today, diminishing from north to south tonight. Precipitation chances diminish by late this evening, with winds also diminishing. VFR conditions are generally expected tonight, although some patchy fog will be possible. Confidence was not high enough to include this fog at this time. Clearing skies, dry conditions, and some breezy northwest winds will then be found for Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions remains in effect for areas south and west of the Missouri River, except McKenzie County, until 9PM CDT / 8 PM MDT. Dewpoints may be trending slightly lower this afternoon, which would still bring afternoon humidity values in the 20s to 30s for most areas within the Red Flag Warning, with some areas in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Meanwhile a breezy to windy northeast to northwest wind will be found in all areas through this evening. Given lowering humidity values, strong winds, and abundant lightning this morning will still maintain the Red Flag Warning through this evening.

Looking ahead, dry conditions look to be found each day this week despite some cooler temperatures through mid week. Some breezy northwest winds may also linger through mid week. Some increased fire concerns are possible with these lower humidity value and breezy winds. If the mentioned winds can align more with the lower humidity values then some near critical fire weather conditions are possible. This will be worth monitoring through the week.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045.