textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow across much of western and south central North Dakota tonight through Saturday, with forecast amounts around 1 to 5 inches. A narrow band of heavier snow could produce locally higher amounts.

- Much colder through this weekend. A return to above normal temperatures is then favored for next week, with a potentially more active weather pattern for the second half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Based on current observations and trends, Slope and Adams Counties have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory. Local radar imagery shows persistent banding as far south as the Highway 12 corridor.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

No significant changes to the going forecast with the late evening update. Latest guidance coming in still in some disagreement with Global guidance a bit farther south than the short term guidance. Overall though, not enough of a change to influence any changes to the current Winter Weather Advisory. Western portion of the Advisory went into effect at 9 PM. The Advisory for central portions of ND will begin at midnight. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The Wind Advisory has been cancelled. For the late afternoon update we used a blend of short term guidance with the current NBM guidance to update pops tonight through midday Saturday. This didn't result in major changes, mainly a delay in the onset this evening, otherwise no significant changes were noted. We also updated winds and gusts with the latest NBM guidance as winds diminished pretty quickly this afternoon. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 446 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Winds have dropped off over central and eastern ND and thus have cancelled the Wind Advisory that was in effect through 7 PM this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Weak cold front will continue to push through this afternoon and evening from north to south. Strong winds have been observed along this front in northern and eastern portions, thus will maintain the Wind Advisory into the early evening hours. Some patchy blowing snow has also been observed near the Turtle Mountain area, although the bigger impacts due to blowing snow are currently being found in northeastern portions of the state. A surface high will then encroach on the area tonight changing these strong northwest winds to a steady and less windy northeast wind. This surface high will also reinforce this cold front with a clipper type system moving along it tonight through Saturday. Where this front and associated low setup will be the focus for accumulating snow starting later this evening through Saturday morning. The concern today are hi-res models such as the HRRR and RAP coming in further north and with higher snowfall amounts then the forecast trend over the preceding days. HREF 24 hour snowfall stamps show a wide range of northern solutions to more southern solutions, with severe in-between. Stamps also showing the potential for accumulations around or above 6 inches with the majority in the 1 to 5 inch range. Current forecast is somewhere in-between which may be slightly further north than previous forecast, yet still forecasting snowfall in the 1 to 5 inch range. Synoptically, there still remains a fair amount of QG forcing, yet the best frontogenesis is forecast along, south, and west of the Missouri River with the associated low taking a favorable parallel track to the boundary. This meshes well with a northeast flow pattern as the dry air associate with this surface flow can tend to limit how far north the heavier snow band can get. The quick residence time may also be limiting factors for heavier snow. The jet stream location may also not quite align with the best frontogenesis although could help contribute to increased snowfall amounts north of this area. Snow probs are bit misleading today, thus looked at chances for 0.25" of QPF in a 24 hour period for the decision on where to issue the Winter Weather Advisory. Looking at this supports shows greater than 60% chance of 0.25" along, south, and west of the Missouri River as well as southeastern portions of the CWA. These probabilities combined with the slightly northward shift was used for issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory tonight through Saturday morning. Any shifts to the band could provide for some adjustments to the advisory location. And will have to monitor for any Winter Storm Warning Upgrades if a heavier band can develop. Otherwise look for colder temperatures to move in tonight, with lows below zero northeast to the teens southwest. Diminishing winds should bring a limited threat for dangerous wind chills. The main band of snow should diminish Saturday morning, although light snow may linger across the central and east through the day. Highs will be colder on Saturday and generally in the single digits northeast to near 30 southwest. Another cold night could then be in store Saturday night as the surface high moves across the region. Lows in the single digits above and below zero will be found, with light winds limiting the threat for dangerous wind chills. This high then pushes east on Sunday, bringing southerly flow and slightly warmer temperatures in the teens east to the 30s west. Warm air advection aloft could bring a slight chance of snow to central and eastern portions, although the NBM has limited PoPs right now. Clearing skies with near normal lows in the teens are then expected for Sunday night.

A mix of zonal flow and weak ridging still expected early to mid next week. Mild temperatures are forecast as a result, although there still remain large temperature spreads given the uncertainty on timing of the ridging and how north the lingering cooler air recedes. Currently the warmest day is forecast on Wednesday as ridging moves to southwest flow aloft and brings forecast highs in the 50s for some southwestern areas. Limited chances for precipitation will be found through mid week. Later next week, a return to a trough pattern still be indicated by the clusters. How this trough sets up still remains uncertain. Chances for precipitation could return, although predictability at this point is low. The amount of cold air with this trough also looks uncertain given large temperature spreads. Thus precipitation could fall as rain or snow or both. So overall look for potentially more active weather later next week with uncertainty on how cold temperatures may get.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

An area of snow has pushed into western and far south central ND. including the KDIK TAF, and will spread southeast across the forecast area bringing widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow, exiting the James River Valley around midday Saturday. Although snow ends around midday, MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings may linger after the snow ends, possibly through the 06Z TAF period in some areas. North to northeast surface flow early in the TAF period shifts east tonight and remains easterly through the day Saturday. Winds generally 8 to 16 Kts through the TAF Period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ009-017>020-031>034-040>042-044-045. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NDZ021- 035>037-046>048-050-051.