textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions over far western North Dakota Thursday, and near-critical across most of the western and central.

- High temperatures forecast to be about 20 degrees above average through Friday (Highs in the 90s).

- Dry conditions expected through Friday. Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Windy conditions persist across portions the far west at this time, though are expected to somewhat diminish over the next few hours. No major adjustments to the forecast were performed, as it remains in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Currently an upper level high is located over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. A large upper level low still sits over northern California, but has slide slightly east from yesterday. At the surface yesterday's stationary front lays west to east across southern North Dakota. Critical fire weather conditions are currently present across far western North Dakota, hence the Red Flag Warning currently in place. Near- critical fire weather conditions exist elsewhere in the forecast area with low relative humidities and breezy southeast winds.

With this upper level high sticking around through Friday, this pattern of hot, dry, and very windy weather will continue. Thursday more critical fire weather conditions will occur in the same far western ND counties as today. Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday afternoon and evening, and again, near-critical conditions elsewhere in the county warning area. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the northwest and north central nearing 100 degrees. This will lead to widespread humidities 15 to 20 percent. Winds will be from the south gusting up to 45 mph, especially in the far west. A similar pattern is expected Friday as well, but shifted to the north and east slightly. A Red Flag Warning may be needed again across the northwest for Friday afternoon.

Friday the large upper low in California will start it's journey east across the Rockies. Leading to diffluent flow across the Northern Plains. Therefor daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be present through the weekend. This will also bring slightly cooler temperatures, possibly in the 70s and 80s, but also very strong south winds from the low pressure gradient. After this weekend that low looks to retrograde back to the northwest, continuing our southwest flow and daily rain chances next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals throughout the 00Z TAF period. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected to remain breezy across the far west overnight, while becoming light at all other locations through Thursday morning. Winds then are expected to strengthen through the late morning and afternoon on Thursday, becoming strong around 25 to 30 MPH and gusts as high as 40 MPH across the far west. A developing low level jet may induce low level wind shear across portions of the far northwest, though confidence is too low to include mentions at KXWA at this time.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.