textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will cause hazardous travel conditions across western and central North Dakota late tonight through Saturday. The highest probabilities for freezing rain are along and west of Highway 83.

- Gusty winds could combine with the freezing rain to produce impactful ice accumulations on elevated objects, and with falling snow to produce significantly reduced visibility.

- Below average temperatures through Saturday morning, then near to above normal for the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1007 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The 00Z suite of guidance has thus far not revealed any significant changes from our current expectations for the hazardous wintry precipitation late tonight through Saturday. CAMs' precipitation type algorithms/simulations paired with modeled thermal profile analyses indicate high probabilities for varying and mixed hydrometeor phases with the main warm frontal band. When precipitation begins in far western North Dakota late tonight, it is favored to fall as freezing rain. By the time it reaches Highway 85 it could start to encounter cooler temperatures aloft that are not sufficient to fully melt hydrometeors. The freezing line of the maximum temperature aloft field is forecast to progress eastward through Saturday morning, but at a slower pace than the band of precipitation. This means that by the time the precipitation passes east of Highway 83 late Saturday morning, it could be falling more as snow than freezing rain. There are also several CAMs that strongly suggest a narrow band of sleet between the snow and freezing rain. Yet another wild card in precipitation types is the potential for dynamic cooling, which could lead to more snow and less freezing rain. Regardless of precipitation type outcomes, there is very high confidence in a period of impactful winter weather across all of western and central North Dakota between tonight and Saturday evening.

UPDATE Issued at 732 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The near-term forecast remains quiet. Latest ensemble guidance shows a slightly quicker arrival of precipitation later tonight into Saturday morning. Will adjust the forecast accordingly if these trends hold in 00Z guidance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Currently a shortwave ridge in Montana is creating strong northerly flow over North Dakota. This combined with a surface high pressure is not allowing temperatures to warm past the single digits above zero across most of the state. There is a stationary front across central Montana and eastern Wyoming, and an Alberta Clipper in southern Canada.

Tonight that stationary front will get pushed east by warm air, turning it into a warm front. This will then move through the Dakotas connected to the clipper system. Breezy southerly warming winds will be along front and create strong warm air advection. The ascent region of the jet stream will be collocated with this, allowing for a band of wintry mix moving west to east with the front. It will mainly start as freezing rain in the west as surface temperatures will be very cold. Ice accumulations will be around a tenth of an inch in western North Dakota, to a light glaze in the east. This band of freezing rain will continue east through the morning, transitioning to snow in the east where the cooler air is located. The transition zone looks to be somewhere near Highway 83.

As the warmer air continues in the west, rain will then be possible. Pretty wild for January and a Alberta Clipper storm. The backside of the low will eventually push cooler air back in, changing the wintry mix in the central and east to be all snow through Saturday evening. Timing on the freezing rain starting in the west tonight is around midnight, hitting Dickinson around 5am MT, and Bismarck around sunrise. We have a Winter Weather Advisory from the Montana border through Highway 83 to cover all this. Temperatures will of course warm to above normal throughout the day with that warm front. The west could get to the lower 40s, and the east right around freezing.

The rest of the weekend northwest flow from that ridge will continue, but temperatures will be warm and above normal. Monday a shortwave and weaker Clipper looks to move through the state. This will be all snow, lasting from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Little snow accumulation is expected however as of now. The rest of next week looks mostly dry as a large upper level high influences the western CONUS, putting us back in northwest flow and above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1007 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals through this evening. Later tonight, a band of mixed precipitation will enter western North Dakota and continue eastward across the state through Saturday afternoon. Most terminals could see precipitation initially start as snow before transitioning to freezing rain, but there are lower probabilities for snow as a dominant type in western North Dakota, and lower probabilities for freezing rain as a dominant type further to the east. MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings can be expected with the precipitation. Temperatures in western North Dakota will rise above freezing Saturday afternoon where there could be a few lingering rain showers. Breezy southerly winds around 10-20 kts through tonight will turn to the west-northwest late Saturday morning through the afternoon and gust to near 30 kts. Periods of low level wind shear are expected across western and central North Dakota, primarily late this evening through Saturday morning but again over parts of central North Dakota late Saturday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Saturday for NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>035- 040>046.