textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- low to medium chances (20 to 60 percent) for rain tonight into Wednesday southwest central and into northeast North Dakota. - Above normal high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s this week, with the occasional highs in the upper 30s in the Turtle Mountains.

- Below normal temperatures are favored for the last week of November.

UPDATE

Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

No significant updates needed other than some small tweaks to sky cover. Will take a look at rain chances late tonight into Wednesday with the evening update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the state. Showers continue to progress into the southern James River Valley producing light rain. Shower will push eastward and diminish this evening. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s this afternoon. Patchy fog could form across much of the state tonight, but there is uncertainty on how widespread and impactful fog will be. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 30s. A short wave will push across the state tonight, west to east, through early tomorrow. This will bring rain to the area as warmer air moves in with a warm front tonight. Precipitation accumulations are forecast to be light from a trace to around 0.10 of an inch. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify and progress across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. This will lead to temperatures lingering in the 40s to 50s through the weekend. Surface high pressure is forecast to move into the western North Dakota Thursday clearing much of the cloudy skies. Surface high pressure will lead to low temperatures into the 20s Friday morning. Northwesterly flow will dominate the upper level pattern this weekend. However, there are no waves really forecast to move through the region leading to dry conditions. Forecast models are picking up on a potential system next week bringing in cold Arctic air leading to below normal temperatures. As for precipitation there is a lot of uncertainty in the ensembles on where a clipper system may move through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites to begin the 00Z TAF period. However expect deteriorating conditions as we head through the night.

MVFR to IFR Stratus is forecast to lift north from South Dakota into southern ND during the evening hours, possibly reaching KBIS and KJMS around 06 UTC. MVFR-IFR clouds in Saskatchewan and northeast Montana are approaching northwest ND as well. A system will bring increasing clouds to southwest ND this evening, then rain is expected to move into the state late this evening or early overnight, and track eastward into south central ND through 12 UTC Wednesday, and continue to linger over much of southwest and south central ND through the day Wednesday, tapering by the afternoon. Patchy fog is also possible across much of the areas later tonight into Wednesday morning. Surface flow will remain light southerly tonight, shifting to the west over western ND later in the day Wednesday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.