textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog possible tonight into Thursday morning, especially west of Highway 83. Fog could become dense at times.

- High temperatures near to slightly below average Thursday, then above average Friday through at least the start of next week.

- Mostly dry conditions through Veteran's Day.

UPDATE

Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low stratus continues to push into the region from the northeast and will likely bring patchy dense fog along the leading edge of the low stratus. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1004 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low clouds are just starting to slip into far northeast North Dakota, and will spread south-southwesterly through the night. Going forecast reflects this well, with no changes needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 609 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Only change with forecast was to make the possibility of fog over western North Dakota a bit earlier in the night than previously forecast, in line with latest guidance. Remainder of forecast continues to be in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Elongated surface high pressure over south central Canada into the eastern Rockies will gradually slide eastward this afternoon through Friday. This will result in winds becoming light and variable in western and north central North Dakota tonight. Models indicate that cloud cover is favored over the eastern half of the state as it remains somewhat under the influence of low pressure sliding eastward towards the Great Lakes Region. This includes low-level stratus that may extend from the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains. The western half is less certain with some models producing high clouds over parts of the west. Air aloft remains relatively dry though, so wouldn't be surprised if this isn't a little overdone. For areas where skies clear off/remain clear and winds become light and variable, dense fog development is possible. Therefore, added areas of fog mainly west of Highway 83 and patchy fog along and east of Highway 83.

Beyond potential fog tonight, the entire forecast is very benign with the NBM producing one big weather grid, or in other words, no mentionable precipitation chances. As aforementioned surface high slides through, high temperatures Thursday will be the coldest for the remainder of the week as cooler Canadian air filters into much of the state. This will result in highs ranging from the upper 30s east to low 50s southwest. Multiple transitory ridges Thursday night through the middle of next week, along with surface flow frequently taking on a westerly component, will help maintain above average temperatures through the middle of next week. By Saturday, this translates to highs mostly in the 50s with some 60 degree readings, especially in the southwest and south central. While these aren't particularly unusual temperatures for this time of year with average highs in the mid 40s and records still reaching the mid to upper 70s; they will become more and more above average as the calendar advances further into November.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The evening will start out with VFR conditions, though as the evening goes on fog will develop. The greatest chance for fog will be over western North Dakota, though some fog and low clouds may also develop over central North Dakota overnight. IFR to LIFR visibility will be possible through early Thursday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.