textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow will continue across parts of south central and over much of eastern North Dakota tonight into Thursday. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches expected, with the higher amounts expected in the James River Valley.

- Another round of snow could bring more significant snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across much of North Dakota, except northwestern and north central portions, Thursday night through Saturday.

- There is a low to medium chance for snow accumulations in excess of 12 inches for portions of southern and eastern North Dakota Friday through Saturday. - Breezy with well below normal daytime temperatures of highs in the 30s through Saturday. Breezy winds could bring blowing snow at times.

UPDATE

Issued at 705 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Removed Dunn and Stark counties from the Winter Weather advisory, with accumulating snow having ended and not much more if anything expected tonight. If latest CAMs are correct, should be able to trim off some additional counties from the western edge of the advisory at some point this evening or early Thursday. Overall, changes outside of the headline modification and trimming POPs a bit were minor.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Weakly organized system will continue to bring light snow across much of the state tonight through Thursday. Initial push of warm air advection snow is moving across much of the south currently and will lift north and eastward through this evening, and linger across some central and eastern portions through tonight. Broad upper level then moves overhead for Thursday. Hi res models showing scattered snow showers with this, although NBM keep widespread pops through the day. This is likely due to some weak synoptic forcing as indicated by weak QG forcing. There is even some weak instability for Thursday perhaps bringing some isolated convective showers. Overall and additional 2 to 5 inches of snow is expected tonight through Thursday thus will keep the current Winter Weather Advisory. Lows tonight will be seasonable and in the 20s, while highs tomorrow will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Some breezy easterly winds will also be found tonight through Thursday, which could bring some blowing snow to areas with fresh snowdepth. Tonight into Thursday morning could also see some fog form to areas where snow diminishes, mainly in the west.

The next round of snow remains on track to move across the state Thursday night, Friday, and into Saturday. Limited differences from the previous forecast have been noticed on this shift, although confidence may have increased slightly for snow accumulations of at least 6 inches in some areas. Main driver of this second system will be a better developed upper level low, with an associated low pressure system kicking out of the Rocky mountain. There still remains some uncertainty in the track although most clusters track the surface low into Iowa and the upper level low across South Dakota and southern Minnesota. The upper level low is generally a favorable track for decent snowfall amounts in southern and eastern North Dakota, while uncertainty in how far south the surface low tracks could be the determining factor in where heavier snowfall amounts end up. There is also some concern on snowfall accumulations during daytime hours, given the time of year. This could be overcome by heavier snowfall rates, which are starting to be indicated by strong QG forcing. Even with this uncertainty NBM has a broad area of medium to high chances for at least 6 inches of snow across southern and eastern portions of the state, with low to some medium chances for at least 12 inches of snow across south central portions. With this potential heavy snowfall, issued a Winter Storm Watch from southwest, to central, to portions of eastern North Dakota Thursday night through the day Saturday. New snowfall from this second system could be 6 to 12 inches within the watch area, especially south central and southeastern portions. As the surface and upper level low tighten up Friday night into Saturday, some breezy winds could also be found. This could bring some blowing snow to the area, although confidence in blizzard conditions is currently low. Temperatures Friday will remain below seasonable normals. Saturday's temperatures are forecast to warm slightly as snow ends from west to east, although this will be highly dependent on snow ending and snow depth. By Saturday night the state should see snow move out, with some cooler lows in the teens and 20s. Anyone traveling this weekend will want to keep up to date on the latest forecast and road conditions.

Sunday through early next week then sees northwest flow aloft linger across the region. Weak waves within this flow could bring some slight chances for light snow at times, although impactful snow is currently not anticipated. Temperatures will also attempt to warm to near normal on Sunday, perhaps slightly cooler on Monday with a passing front, and then warming on Tuesday with a warm southerly flow returning. There are some large temperatures spreads during this time period given uncertainty with snow depth and some uncertainty in ridging to the west and the resultant northwest flow pattern over North Dakota. Another front may then push through around mid week, bringing slight chances for rain and snow and perhaps cooler temperatures. Large temperatures spreads remain in this scenario as well given uncertainty in timing of the mentioned front. Overall early to mid next week may return the up and down temperature pattern, with some limited chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 705 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Periods of snow will continue at KBIS and KJMS at times tonight, having ended elsewhere for this first round of winter weather. Reduced visibility in falling snow will be possible for these two terminals. Widespread IFR to MFVR ceilings through the 00Z period all sites, with a few hours of LIFR cigs late tonight into Thursday morning. Fog is also expected to develop across western North Dakota, and especially over the southwest including KDIK, where visibility may approach LIFR if not lower after 06Z tonight. Winds remain easterly through the period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday for NDZ019-020-034-041-042-044-045. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ021>023- 025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for NDZ021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.