textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers through Thursday. The threat for severe weather is low.

- Strong northwest winds are expected in southwestern and south central through the afternoon.

- Temperatures below normal today and Thursday, with highs mostly in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s. Slightly warmer and generally dry for Friday.

- Near seasonable temperatures with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Scattered rain showers with a few weak thunderstorms continue to move through the area. This will continue through early evening, with precipitation dissipating by late evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Cyclonic flow persists across the northern Plains as a upper level low remains parked over northern Manitoba. At the surface, a center of low pressure is moving across eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota this afternoon, dragging a slow-moving cold front across the Dakotas. Behind this cold front, enhanced lift from a mid level has promoted showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Coverage of both are expected to decrease through this afternoon as the mid level jet begins to push south out of the forecast area, before diminishing entirely through the mid to late evening. With persistant cloud cover and shower activity, high temperatures are expected to peak mainly in the 60s this afternoon. These cooler temperatures and prevalent cloud cover will keep the potential for severe weather very low. Strong northwest winds are found in portions of southwest and south central North Dakota this afternoon, as pressure rises and precpitation bring down some of the stronger winds from the previously mentioned mid level jet down to the surface. Winds are expected to rapidly diminish through the remainder of the afternoon as this mid level jet and better pressure rises move further to the south of the forecast area. Light northwest winds will then persist overnight across western and central North Dakota. Low temperatures are forecast to broadly be in the 40s.

More showers and thunderstorms are then possible Thursday afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave traveling down the cyclonic flow lofts a low pressure through southern Canada. A stronger storm or two may be possible in the late afternoon into the early evening at at least sufficient instability and BULK shear develops in the warm sector of the surface low, with gusty winds and small hail possible. Severe weather is not expected at this time. Otherwise, slightly warmer highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s are expected for Thursday afternoon with the lower cloud cover in the morning.

Transient upper level ridging is expected to start moving into the west portion of the northern Plains starting on Friday, displacing the Manitoba low further to the east. While this will start to promote warmer and drier weather heading into the early weekend, showers and a few storms will remain possible over portions of central into eastern North Dakota on Friday where influence from the upper low is expected to persist. By early Saturday, with transient ridge is expected to settle over the northern Plains, promoting highs mainly in the 70s and dry afternoon conditions across western and central North Dakota through. Heading into late Saturday into early Sunday, chances for showers increase across western and portions of central North Dakota as the ensemble attempts to resolve a potential Pacific wave/closed low moving into the northern Plains. A dry solution (55 percent of ensemble members) favors a slightly more robust upper level trough persisting over the forecast area through late Saturday, early Sunday, limiting the chances for light precpitation and isolated thunder over mainly west and south central. A comparably wet solution (45 percent of members) spreads these chances further across much of western and central North Dakota through Saturday night, as the shortwave ejecting off of the incoming Pacific trough/closed low flattens the transient ridge. In either scenario, flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn increasingly to the southwest by Sunday and into early next week as the influence from the incoming Pacific trough/low strengthens.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually diminish this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms then return to western and parts of central North Dakota Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.