textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance of light rain across the south tonight. - Mainly dry and warmer today and Wednesday.

- Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Significant cool down for the end of the week, with medium chances for rain and snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 947 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Rain and snow has exited the forecast area. Still a couple areas of patchy dense fog, but vsbys look to be improving. We do have a SPS continuing through 10:30 AM for the Highway 2 corridor in the northwest. For the morning update we increased sky cover through this morning for most areas. The low stratus has cleared in the southwest.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Showers are found over north central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. The heaviest precpitation occurring over Pierce and Rolette counties, where rain has transitioned to snow over the past few hours. Visibilities over this area have been consistently around 1/2 to 2 miles while snow has been falling, so we wouldn't be surprised to see accumulations on grass and elevated surfaces once the sun rises. Precpitation will generally end over the next few hours as the inciting low continues to exit to the northeast. Otherwise this morning, fog has developed where precpitation has ceased across the west and south central. A tour of NDDOT camera reveals it to be fairly patchy, except over the far south central where it has been a little more consistently socked in. Fog is generally expected to lift through the mid morning. With this update, have made tweaks to the PoPs and sky grids to account for the latest model trends, and bumped up fog in the far south central. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The remnants of precpitation overnight continue to exit to the northeast with the inciting low pressure center this morning. While still mainly falling as light rain, some snow may become mixed into this is precpitation in the Turtle Mountains area as cooler air wraps around the low. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Low stratus and some patchy fog lingers behind the rain, though both are expected to clear from west to east through through the mid morning. Lows are broadly in the 30s to lower 40s.

Near zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains as another transient shortwave / closed low cross the region. Short term deterministic models continue to nudge the track of this low slightly further and further north over the past few forecast cycles, skimming across our southern counties late this afternoon and overnight. With this more northerly track, there is some potential for light precpitation across portions of the northwest and north central during this period. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings across the south this evening reveals a fairly dry layer near surface layer than any precpitation that does form would need to overcome, thus have opted to limit precpitation to a very low chance (<20 percent). Otherwise, cloud cover across the south central might be a little slow to clear out through today compared to the north and far west with this shortwave. Highs this afternoon are above normal by around 5 to 10 degrees, forecast broadly in the mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry and warm conditions linger through Wednesday, with highs peaking well into the 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area. Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn increasingly southwesterly through late Wednesday and through the day Thursday as closed upper level Pacific trough and associated surface low makes it way across southwestern Canada. As the influence of this low complex increases through the day on Thursday, a fairly stark gradient in high temperatures is expected in the afternoon, from the lower 40s across the north up to the mid 70s in the far south central. Chances for precpitation will also increase from northwest to southeast through the day Thursday, becoming likely overnight through Friday morning. The ensemble continues to advertise a general transition from mostly rain Thursday to a rain-snow mix or all snow overnight into Friday as the cold front associated with the low complex digs across the forecast area. There remains some disagreement about when and where this transition occurs, with a slight majority of clusters (55 percent) favoring a slightly slower evolution of the system, allowing for a greater amount of the precpitation associated with this wave to fall during the coolest period of the night. With this, light snow accumulations up to an inch or two are possible across much of western and central North Dakota, though the highest amounts would be along the International Border. A minority cluster (45 percent) favors a slightly quicker low, allowing for the bulk of precpitation across the west and south to fall mainly as rain. In this scenario, light snow accumulations would mainly be limited to the far north central. In either scenario, this snow isn't expected to be impactful, or last on the ground very long at all. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as a sharp pressure gradient develops across the forecast area. With these winds being gradient driven, we don't expect these winds to be overly impactful, perhaps near advisory at best across portions of the southwest. This thinking is backed by the lack of any highlight in the EFI during this period.

Below normal highs in the 30s and 40s can be anticipated both Friday and Saturday with the much cooler airmass situated over the northern Plains, before a developing longwave ridge across much of the western CONUS will help warming temperatures return late in the weekend into early next week. There remains a decent amount of disagreement within the ensemble on timing, resulting in a 15 to 20 degree spread in highs Monday and Tuesday, but all clusters appear to resolve in a brief blocking pattern setting up early next week. With this, dry conditions can also be anticipated during this period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mainly MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility can be found to begin the 12Z TAF period. Ceilings have been fairly variable overnight, occasionally dipping down to LIFR levels, though they are expected to start improving to VFR conditions from west to east through the morning into the early afternoon. An area of showers continues to move across north central North Dakota this morning, falling mostly as rain with some snow mixing in across the Turtle Mountains area, though precipitation is no longer expected at any terminals.

Winds are expected to remain around 10 kts or less through much of the period, turning out of the east this morning to the west this afternoon, then out of the south tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.