textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild with above normal temperatures for this coming weekend and into the day Monday.

- Below normal temperatures are then favored from next week Tuesday and for the remainder of November.

- A period of gusty winds are forecast Monday night through Wednesday, with the strongest winds forecast on Tuesday.

- Low to medium chances (30 to 50%) for snow early to mid next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The fog in the southwest and south central is breaking up and lifting now. The rest of the day should be mostly sunny with high clouds in the north.

UPDATE Issued at 910 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The advection fog continues across the southwest, and now has spread into Morton, Grant, and Sioux counties. The SPS for fog with a quarter mile visibility or less has been reissued to include those counties.

UPDATE Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fog starting to show up on webcams in southwestern North Dakota. Reports are still fairly isolated, thus issued an SPS for southwestern areas through the mid morning hours. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy fog remains possible through this morning, although reports have been limited so far. Surface low to our north combined with a weak upper level wave could bring some increased cloud cover at times today, although mainly dry conditions will limit precipitation changes. Winds will become south southwesterly bringing slightly warmer temperatures today in the 40s to lower 50s. The mentioned wave moves eastward tonight, bringing a dry westerly flow and some lingering clouds. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer and in the 20s to lower 30s. Surface ridge with zonal flow aloft will be found Saturday, with this pattern pushing eastward on Sunday. Overall look for mild temperatures as a result through the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. Mainly dry conditions look to be found with this pattern over the weekend, although a weak wave in westerly flow aloft may provide for some increased cloud cover across the north at times.

Early to mid next week still showing signs of a pattern change to cooler temperatures and medium (30 to 50%) chances for precipitation. Clusters starting to show some agreement in these chances for precipitation that may start as rain on Monday, then transition to snow Monday night, remaining mostly snow Tuesday. There still remains differences in how much snow. Both solutions show this wave moving through fairly quick. However, about half of clusters favor a more northern track putting higher snowfall amounts in southern Canada, while the other half of clusters spread snowfall across North Dakota, especially northern, central, and eastern portions. Currently NBM has the higher chances for at least an inch of snow in southern Canada, with around 10 to 40% chance of at least an inch of snow in a 24 hour period next week across North Dakota. ECMWF EFI values for snow are currently low, although there is a small shift of tails indicating some higher outliers in ECMWF ensembles. Something to continue to monitor for next week, although it is noteworthy the chances for snow early to mid next week have increased slightly today. This same pattern is expected to bring gusty winds next week, with the ECMWF EFI values elevated for Tuesday and at least breezy winds in the forecast through Wednesday. There also remains high confidence in colder temperatures moving in behind this trough by mid to late next week. NBM spreads are still modest, although the warmer end of these spreads are around normal and much of the spreads below normal. Current NBM forecast high temperatures begin in the 30s on Tuesday and cool to the teens and 20s Friday. While lows Tuesday morning are forecast in the teens and 20s cooling to the single digits Friday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR CIGs through the period. Some IFR VIS are still present in the southwest and south central with fog, this should improved within the next few hours to VFR. Winds will light today, increasing to 20kts from the west Saturday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.