textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of fog tonight through Tuesday morning. Fog may become dense at times.

- Mild and dry weather with a warming trend for most areas today through Wednesday.

- Cooler Thursday and Friday with low to medium chances for rain and snow.

- Another modest warmup favored for the weekend, then cooler with increasing chances for precipitation early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

With this update, have opted to include areas of fog across portions of northwestern and central North Dakota tonight through Tuesday morning. Otherwise, have tweaked with dewpoint temperatures in the southwest this afternoon to fall more in line with trends over the past few days.

UPDATE Issued at 830 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Quiet weather persists across western and central North Dakota this morning. A thin band of high clouds has begun to lift into the southwest, but otherwise mostly clear skies can be found. No adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The near-term portion of the forecast remains on track. One change of note for tonight into Tuesday morning was to introduce patchy fog for most areas along and to the north and east of the Missouri River. Most visibility guidance hints at a potential widespread dense fog event, and model soundings would support fog formation as they show a very shallow inversion over a relatively fresh snowpack with very dry air and light winds over the top of the inversion. If these model trends hold, will likely need to ramp up forecast coverage and intensity of fog. In north central parts of the state, it could end up being more of a low stratus episode as guidance suggests a layer of saturated air above the surface advecting down from Canada.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Northwest flow over the Northern Plains this morning is forecast to evolve into a split flow pattern with the northern stream gradually turning zonal through the middle of the week. This is favored to result in mild and dry weather today through Wednesday, with temperatures becoming warmer each day, except in far north central North Dakota where Tuesday could be cooler as a shortwave passes by to our north. High temperatures yesterday were greatly limited by the fresh snowpack in south central North Dakota, and we expect that trend to continue for at least one more day. But plentiful sunshine with an early March solar angle and above freezing afternoon temperatures could put a significant dent in the snow by the end of today. Areas with an appreciable snowpack will likely see highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s this afternoon, but southwest parts of the state could rise into the lower and mid 50s. For Tuesday, expect more widespread 50s south and west of the Missouri River and 40s to the north and east, with the Turtle Mountains area still stuck in the 30s or even upper 20s. Wednesday is strongly favored to be the warmest day across the southern half of the state where there are medium to high chances for highs in the 50s southeast to 60s southwest. Northern parts of the state may not see quite as drastic of a warmup on Wednesday, but it could still end up being the warmest day of the week. The northern uncertainty looks to be driven by the timing of a backdoor cold front sinking down from Canada, which appears to be the only surface feature of note from now until its arrival.

The backdoor cold front is forecast to approach the South Dakota border Thursday morning. Model soundings and comparison of surface and 850 mb prognostics reveal the cooler air mass to have a very shallow depth, and would not be surprised if it is accompanied by a blanket of low stratus. This lowers the Thursday high temperature forecast into the 20s and 30s north to 40s south, but this could trend cooler if cloud cover holds through the day. Meanwhile, a deep western CONUS trough is forecast to begin ejecting shortwave energy out of the Rockies on Thursday. The evolution of this longwave trough remains unclear as it may briefly rejoin a northern stream shortwave trough before cutting off over the Desert Southwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast both near the Black Hills and in eastern Colorado on Thursday, but there is no longer ensemble support for the northern surface low to bring impactful weather to North Dakota as it now looks more likely to fuse with the Colorado low as an inverted trough. Nevertheless, the northern stream shortwave may dip far enough south to bring light precipitation through parts of the state Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday, low precipitation chances shift more over southern and eastern North Dakota as shortwave energy continues to eject northeast off the Central Rockies. But surface high pressure building downslope of the Northern Rockies could impinge the development of the Colorado low and prevent it from deepening. While the probability of accumulating snow on Friday is greater than zero, ensembles and all clusters thereof consistently place the highest precipitation probabilities well to the south and east of the state.

A resumption of the split flow pattern is favored for the weekend, keeping precipitation chances low and likely allowing a slight warmup from the end of the work week. Above normal temperatures are favored for most areas Saturday and Sunday, but there is still large spread in the NBM distributions. Looking ahead to early next week, there is broad ensemble support for general troughing over the north central CONUS, which would favor cooler temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are found at all terminals to begin the 18Z TAF period. With weak winds and a melting snow pack across much of northern and south central North Dakota, low stratus and areas fog is expected to promote IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility at KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS tonight through Tuesday morning. Have opted to keep VFR conditions at KXWA and KDIK, where slightly stronger winds and less snow is found. Fog is expected to linger through the end of the TAF period, especially across central North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.