textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog across the northwest today.

- Near to above normal temperatures favored mid to late week. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the upper 30s northeast to lower 60s far southwest.

UPDATE

Issued at 1236 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The low clouds and fog are starting to break up and move east, with clearing skies in the west. The latest NBM data has been loaded into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 910 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The patchy dense fog has expanded to the southwest. We have issued a SPS to cover this as the dense fog is spotty across the western half of the state. As the diurnal trend continues, this fog should mix out later this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Low stratus lingers across most of western and central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. In the northwest, where winds are lightest, patchy fog can be found. Visibility reductions are broadly from 1 to 3 miles where fog lingers, though some locations have occasionally dropped as low as 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times. Winds further south and east and remained a little stronger than anticipated, which has so far limited the expansion of the fog in these directions. Otherwise, very few reports of light flurries have been observed over the past couple of hours. Will maintain chances for now, though we may only see one or two more reports of flurries through the rest of the morning. Overall the forecast remains on track, with no adjustments performed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Near meridional flow is found over the northern Plains this morning as influence from a closed upper level ridge over the western CONUS spreads eastward. Near surface conditions remain saturated across western and central North Dakota, with low stratus blanketing the forecast area. Sufficient moisture within the first 1KM above the surface and weak omega through this layer will allow isolated flurries across portions of western and much of central North Dakota through the early morning, though becoming less likely as the near surface saturated layer becomes more and more shallow. As winds have died down across the west, this stratus has begun to settle onto the surface as patchy fog. Visibilities have dropped as low as 1/4 miles over isolated locations in the northwest, with 3 to 6 miles found more broadly. Fog is expected to expand south and east through the early to mid morning, before starting to lift by the late morning/early afternoon as winds strengthen. With a developing LLJ across much of the forecast area this afternoon, and with a decent warm front lifting from west to east through the day, breezy west to southwest winds are expected with speeds around 15 to 20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH. Mainly dry conditions are expected, though a very weak shortwave passing across northeastern North Dakota this afternoon and evening may clip the Turtle Mountains and the northern James River Valley with light, non-accumulating snow (very low chance). Otherwise, for today, low stratus is expected to diminish across the far west through the afternoon and evening as high pressure moves in behind the warm front. With clearing skies, and with the warmer airmass draped over the region, highs temperatures across the southwest are expected to climb as high as the lower 50s this afternoon. Highs across the James River Valley into the Turtle Mountains area will remain cooler, in the lower to mid 30s, as the warm front is progged to arrive later that evening, and due to the longer residence time of the low level stratus. Dry weather and warming temperatures are then expected to continue through the day Thursday with highs forecast from the upper 30s to lower 40s north central, up to the mid and upper 50s southwest.

A brief cool down is then expected Friday as the ridge begins to erode under the influence of a deep Pacific trough making landfall in the western CONUS. With northwesterly flow become established, a strong NE to SW temperatures gradients is anticipated Friday, with highs from the upper teens and lower 20 north central to the upper 40s to lower 50s southwest. Ensemble members become increasingly beyond this period as they try to resolve the upper level flow pattern this weekend. The majority (60 percent of model members) favor a strong redeveloping ridge moving in to the west, and thus a stronger warming trend through Sunday. In this scenario, would not be overly surprising to see highs broadly in the mid 40s and 50s by Sunday afternoon. A minority cluster (40 percent of model members) instead favor a much shallower ridge, maintaining the fairly strict NE to SW temperature gradient through the weekend. In this scenario, while portions of the southwest would remain in the 50s, north central North Dakota would be cooler with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. In either scenario, seasonably warm and relatively dry weather is currently favored to persist through the weekend into early next week. Looking further ahead, long-term models continue to a pattern shift sometime by the mid to late week as a more aggressively tilted Pacific trough makes landfall and crosses into the northern Plains. As flow over the region turns southwesterly, a return to more seasonable temperatures would be anticipated by the late to mid week. When this shift occurs is still uncertain, with a majority of ensemble members (65 percent) favoring a turn to southwesterly flow by early Wednesday, while a minority (35 percent) delays this until late Wednesday, early Thursday. The CIPS climate analogues has started to reflect this potential pattern shift, leaning toward near normal temperatures and slightly above normal precpitation by the late workweek. Of course, any details about what, where, and when for any potential system during this period remain very obscured at this timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR west to maninly IFR elsewhere. Low CIGs with patchy fog continue in the north central, central, and east. CIGs and fog will slowly clear west to east through the afternoon. Winds will gust to 25kts from the west.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.