textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will continue to diminish from west to east through the afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures this weekend, coldest tonight with lows mostly in the single digits above and below zero.

- Near to above normal temperatures favored for next week. Wednesday is forecast to be the warmest day when southwest North Dakota could see highs above 60 degrees.

- Little to no precipitation chances Sunday through Wednesday. A more active weather pattern is then favored through the end of next week and into the following week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Northwesterly flow can be found over the northern Plains this afternoon. Light snowfall is anticipated to linger over portions of central North Dakota into the James River Valley through the mid afternoon. With the dissipation strong FG forcing previously found over much of North Dakota, the heavier snowfall previously found this morning is not longer anticipated. That being said, some minor snowfall enhancement can be found under a jet streak slowly sliding to the east across south central North Dakota this afternoon. Otherwise for today, breezy winds are expected in the southwest and in the southern James River Valley this afternoon. Sustained speeds up to around 15 MPH and gusts as high as 25 MPH are possible. High temperatures today remain near to below normal this afternoon, from the 20s to lower 30s southwest, to the single digits to mid teens northwest and central. Lows tonight are expected to be from the single digits below zero central, to the single digits to lower teens above west.

Northwesterly flow will turn increasingly zonal through the Day Sunday, keeping conditions across western and central North Dakota relatively dry. With this pattern allowing for the greater penetration of the thermal axis into the northern Plains. With this moderate warm air advection, there is a low chance for isolated flurries across western and portions of central North Dakota Sunday morning, though warming highs in the upper teens and 20s central to the 30s to lower 30s west are expected in the afternoon. Periods of breezy south winds, with speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH, will be possible in the morning through the afternoon.

Looking ahead into next week, there is strong agreement between model members that a split-flow regime will develop across the northern Plains as a cut-off low moves into the western CONUS. With this, mainly dry and warming weather is expected for western and central North Dakota. Slightly to well above normal high temperatures in the 30s north central to 50s southwest are expected, with portions of the far southwest even peaking into the 60s anticipated by Wednesday. While consensus on a shortwave trough reintroducing chances for precpitation to the northern Plains Thursday through the end of the week is similarly high, a good amount of uncertainty remains about the details. The ensemble becomes split between a "warm" solution (60 percent memberships) that captures a mix of rain and snow across the forecast area, while a "cool" solution has much more of the precpitation falling as accumulating snow. Depending on which solution, there's a 20 to 25 degree spread in high temperatures Thursday onward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Lingering light snow and flurries will continue to promote periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities through the early afternoon. MVFR ceilings will similarly linger across much of the area through the afternoon, starting to gradually lift by the early to mid evening. VFR ceilings and visibility is then broadly anticipated tonight through Sunday morning.

Generally light winds our of the northeast this afternoon with turn south southeasterly this evening through Sunday morning, becoming breezy across the west with speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.