textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return Sunday, and will continue through much of next week.

- Breezy to windy conditions expected at times through next week. - Low to medium chances (20 to 40%) for rain and snow next week, with increasing chances later next week.

- Medium confidence in a brief cool down late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Surface high pressure will push across the east this evening, while a baroclinic zone in the west begins to deteriorate. The result will be mainly clear skies east to cloudy skies with a few flurries or brief light snow showers west and perhaps in some central portions. This high will then get pushed out by a weak surface trough, with warm air advection aloft keeping partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight, yet dry air at the surface limiting precipitation chances. Cold temperatures will again be found in the east with lows near zero. While teens and 20s are found in the west. A brief period of light winds may also be found tonight before a breezy westerly wind forms by early Sunday morning. Dry air should limit the fog threat tonight. Surface trough moves through on Sunday, with a dry and mild westerly flow behind it. Most areas will see high temperatures warm back into the 30s and 40s along with perhaps a breezy westerly wind. Northeastern North Dakota could see slight chances for freezing rain as this mentioned surface trough moves through. This is mainly for northeastern North Dakota, outside of our CWA. This dry and steady westerly flow then looks to continue Sunday night, bringing mild low temperatures generally in the 20s. A weak disturbance in northwest flow may clip southwestern portions Sunday night into Monday morning. Dry air at the lower levels will limit precipitation chances, with a dry forecast currently prevailing.

Next week, a broad area of high pressure in the western US is still forecast to start the week, breakdown sometime mid week, then reestablish itself later in the week. The timing and location of this western high will great influence the weather for North Dakota. The influence of this high may be mostly felt temperature wise on Monday, with highs forecast in the mid to upper 30s northeast to the lower 50s southwest. Of note for Monday are high ECMWF EFI values for max and min temperatures especially in the southwest. This indicating perhaps near record high temperatures are possible. More of a northwest flow pattern Tuesday and Wednesday may slightly cool temperatures, yet still remain above normal as also indicated in ECMWF EFI values. Weak waves and fronts in this northwest flow may also move through Tuesday and Wednesday bringing slight chances for rain and snow. ECMWF EFI values for winds are also slightly elevated on Tuesday, which is also hinted at the current NBM forecast being near advisory level. Thursday and Friday could see the high redevelop more off the western US coast, which could open the door for a larger trough to move through and perhaps some colder air from the north. Increased chances for rain and snow will be found once again during this time period, with chances for over an inch of snow around 10 to 30%. A more develop front may also bring some stronger winds on Thursday. Both NBM and the ECMWF EFI values are starting to show this as a the higher confidence day in at least wind advisory winds. After a mild day on Thursday, highs on Friday may be in the 20s, which is near normal for this time of year.

How long does the colder air last across the state still remains uncertain for later next week. Model members continue to struggle with both the relative strength and position of a persistent blocking ridge over the desert southwest, and the potential development of a Hudson Bay Low. Recall from the previous forecast discussion that ensemble members were split between three potential scenarios: A warm and dry scenario that captures a strong blocking ridge and strong Hudson Bay Low, keeping flow over the northern Plains more northwesterly (55 percent of members) 2) A cool and wet scenario that favors a strong blocking ridge and a weak Hudson Bay Low that keeps strictly meridional flow over the northern Plains through the weekend (30 percent membership) 3) A cool and dry scenario that favors a weak blocking ridge and strong Hudson Bay Low that promotes west northwesterly flow over the northern Plains (15 percent membership). The "warm" scenario favors near to above normal temperatures, again with a strong NE to SW gradient, while the "cool" scenarios are below normal across much of the forecast area. The "wet" scenario could allow for an additional inch of new snow by the end of the weekend. Notably, the underlying ensemble families remain fairly well dispersed between these three scenarios, which really highlights the great amount of uncertainty by the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Lingering clouds will bring some light snow and MVFR to brief IFR conditions today, mainly across the west and the James River Valley. Between these two areas looks to see mainly VFR conditions. Snow chances diminish this evening, although some low VFR to MVFR ceilings may remain. Clouds then go on a clearing trend tonight, with widespread VFR conditions expected by Sunday morning. Breezy northwest winds will be found today across the east including at KJMS. Breezy westerly winds may then return on Sunday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.