textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures to end the workweek, with near record highs Thursday and especially Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures this weekend and into early next week.

- Dry conditions through Thursday night, then low chances for showers Friday afternoon through Friday night.

- Breezy to windy Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The forecast remains on track. Quiet weather will prevail through tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A ridge building into the Northern Plains with trailing thermal ridge will result in well above average high temperatures today, becoming unseasonably warm and near record territory Thursday through Friday. These highs Thursday and Friday will range mostly from the 70s to low 80s with lows mostly in the 50s Thursday night (mid 40s far northwest). Dry conditions are expected to accompany this feature through Thursday night. After which, the current NBM keeps then keeps things mostly dry during the day Friday before low rain chances return Friday night possibly lingering into Saturday morning. That said, as upper low pressure over the northern Rockies lifts towards south central Canada Friday, associated shortwave energy and surface warm frontal boundary could produce a few showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

Breezy southerly winds will likely develop Friday before a strong cold frontal boundary brings windy conditions to much of the state Friday night and possibly into Saturday. While the FROPA is currently favored to pass through at night, and therefore not the most ideal timeframe for tapping into the strongest winds aloft, current deterministic models contain moderate pressure rises that could aid in winds reaching advisory criteria anyways. Furthermore, should the front either come through quicker or slower than currently forecast, which is always a distinct possibility, then wind impacts could become higher in the end.

Behind the cold front, much cooler air is anticipated to filter in for this weekend into next week with highs Saturday mostly in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and highs mostly in the 40s on Sunday and Monday. A slight warming trend is then forecast into the middle of next week. Widespread lows in the 20s to low 30s are progged Saturday night through Monday night. However, any nights where clouds clear and winds go relatively light, temperatures will likely tank and become even cooler than the NBM currently forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will primarily be southeast to south around 5-15 kts, strongest in western North Dakota this evening into tonight, and in central North Dakota Thursday afternoon. Low level wind shear is forecast across parts of northwest and north central North Dakota tonight into Thursday morning, including at KMOT.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.