textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain with snow chances area wide tonight, with minimal accumulation.

- Breezy to windy most of this week, with on and off chances for light snow or rain through Wednesday.

- There is increasing confidence in a storm system bringing widespread snow mixed with some rain to the region late Thursday through Saturday. As expected, there remains uncertainty regarding any details during this period at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Forcing has diminished across north central North Dakota, with the banded snow all but over. Have allowed the Winter Weather advisory to expire at 18Z (1PM) as earlier this was extended.

Cold front draped along the Canadian border will push south this afternoon and evening. Lingering right entrance region upper jet forcing along with embedded impulses riding over the cold FROPA will bring a decent chance for rain and snow, developing this afternoon and continuing this evening before ending west to east overnight. Accumulations should be light, less than a tenth of an inch.

UPDATE Issued at 849 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Moderate to strong low/mid level frontogenetical forcing coupled with right entrance region upper level jet dynamics is contributing to banded precpitation across my north this morning. Opted to expand the Winter Weather advisory across my entire north through 16Z (11AM CDT), with up to 4 inches of snow expected. Will keep a Special Weather statement for the tier of counties south of the advisory for any mixed precipitation. Still expected conditions to improve as forcing pushes off to the east and solar energy increases (road sfc temperatures warming). Should be able to let headlines go at 16Z, but will reevaluate closer to then.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for Divide and Burke counties for 2 to 4 inches of snow until 11am. A narrow band of mostly snow continues in the northwest and along the International Border. This snow band should continue into the late morning. Depending on how much more snow looks to fall in the next few hours, the Advisory may need to be extended east. Just south of the band of snow, webcams look to have fog that may be depositing ice on the roads via NDDOT road reports.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently there is a surface low pressure and upper level wave impacting the Northern Plains. A broad area of rain, turning into snow, is on going along and north of Highway 2. There is a slight chance of freezing rain this morning along the Highway 2 corridor, confidence is very low with model soundings not fully supporting that idea. Here at 2AM, most of the precipitation is rain as surface temperatures are mostly above freezing. It seems like the heavier bands of precip are remaining snow all the way to the ground. This precip, on the positive vorticity side of the wave, will continue through the late morning. This afternoon a backdoor cold front behind the surface low will sweep in west to east, forming another area of rain and snow. This time in the central and possibly south central through tonight. The QPF through the system is around 0.25 inches in the north, resulting in 1 to 3 inches of snow along the International border. This evening the QPF is much lower and mainly rain is expected. This cold front will also create breezy winds in the west, northwest winds gusting near 30 mph are expected in the west this evening. High temperatures today will be in the lower 30s north to mid 60s south.

Tonight that cold front will continue sweeping east across the state, creating brief periods of winds gusting near 30 mph. The rain and snow in the central and south could continue through most of the night along the front and wrap around moisture. Overnight lows will be in the upper teens north to 30 in the southern James River Valley. The northern part of the state's lows will be several degrees below normal.

The middle of this week will be slightly quiet with zonal flow, while a trough and low pressure form on the west coast. In the central part of the CONUS southwest flow will form a low, and slightly influence the Dakotas. Chances (40%) for snow will linger Wednesday into Thursday across much of the state, with little to no accumulation expected.

Thursday a big low pressure system will move in from the Pacific Northwest, creating widespread snowfall Thursday evening through Saturday. The current NBM snowfall forecast is a large swath of 5 inches along and south of Highway 200. The 25th to 75th percentile range is 1 to 7 inches, showing the range of different possibilities yet. NBM probabilities of 4 inches are 55 percent and 30 percent for 6 inches. The James River Valley has higher probabilities for 4 inches, reaching up to 80 percent. The models are starting to agree on the placement of the upper low, now it's just the timing, and placement of the surface low. Lots of uncertainty still with this one, but either way it will snow an impactful amount somewhere in the Dakotas. Temperatures will remain around or slightly below normal through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist north through much of the forecast period. Initially VFR conditions elsewhere, deteriorate to low VFR/MVFR ceilings this evening-early Tue morning for a several hour period, along with a chance of mainly rain, but with snow mixing in as colder air moves south. Conditions then improve to VFR during the day Tuesday. Winds transition to northwesterly later today and through the rest of the period as a cold front moves south across the state. Peak wind gusts to 25-30 knots are forecast.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.