textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon and evening for much of western and central North Dakota. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for most areas to the south and west of the Missouri River and Lake Sakakawea.

- A notable but brief warm up today, with much cooler temperatures expected by the weekend.

- More widespread precipitation returns late in the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Going forecast remains in good shape with no changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan, with cold front stretching off to the south and west. High remains over the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains. Upper level analysis places weak trough over the Upper Midwest, with ridging over the Northern Rockies into the western edge of the Northern Plains ahead of a progressing trough over British Columbia. Over our area, quiet weather continues.

The aforementioned upper trough digging into British Columbia pushes southeastward, with transient upper ridge passing over into our area. Temperatures will be notably warmer, with highs in the 80s over most locations, and dry conditions continuing. Fire weather concerns with this are addressed in a "Fire Weather" section below.

Previously mentioned cold front pushes through late tonight into Friday morning, resulting in increasing northwesterly winds in its wake. With the easterly pushing upper trough, a few showers may develop, primarily over northern locations.

Notably cooler temperatures are then expected this weekend into early next week. Quiet weather is expected through the day on Saturday, before a Pacific low quickly moves onshore and pushes towards the Rockies, while a surface low develops to the lee of the Rockies and gradually pushes easterly. This will bring increasing precipitation chances to our area from Saturday night through the first part of the upcoming week. Guidance returns drier weather to the area by Tuesday with the system lifting off to the northeast, though additional low precipitation chances return for mid-week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will become southwesterly today around 15 to 20 kts, decreasing this evening. A cold front will push in late tonight into Friday morning, with winds switching northerly behind the front, increasing to 15 to 20 kts during the mid to late morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon into this evening for areas south and west of the Missouri River and Lake Sakakawea, therefore a Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected to surround the Red Flag Warning area and include most areas north and east of the Missouri River.

In the Red Flag Warning area, humidity values will dip as low as 13 percent, while southwest winds increase to around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. In the near critical area surrounding the Red Flag Warning, winds will be a little lighter, with humidity values around 15 to 25 percent. Areas along the Canadian Border and from The Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley will see similar winds with humidity values dipping into the mid 20s to mid 30s, except lower mid 40s around the Turtle Mountains.

A cold front will push through western and central North Dakota late tonight into Friday morning. Gusty northwest winds are expected in its wake. Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible over parts of far southwest North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.