textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures fluctuating between near to above normal through the upcoming week.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

- Breezy winds to be found at times this week, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Adjusted POPs and went coverage for shower wording over the next few hours. Embedded wave continues to bring isolated rain or snow showers to western and central North Dakota early this evening. Expect this to continue for another few hours then diminish as forcing decreases. Clouds cover will also decrease tonight, before increasing again Monday morning. No other significant changes with this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A weak wave will move across the state through this evening bringing some chances for rain and snow showers. Surface high then takes over for tonight, helping to clear skies and bring light winds. Dry conditions in place combined with increasing winds at night should limit fog formation tonight. Lows tonight are forecast in the 20s, with some teens in the north. Exiting high then brings a steady southerly wind on Monday, and warms temperatures back into the 40s and 50s for most areas. There could be a few isolated rain showers in the east along a weak warm front Monday afternoon and evening. A weak backdoor cold front then looks to move through Monday night, keeping overnight lows cool and in the 20s. This front stalls out on Tuesday bringing slight cooler temperatures across the state with highs forecast in the 30s far northeast to near 60 degrees on the warmer side of the front in the southwest. Generally dry conditions are also expected for Tuesday. As a surface low takes shape Tuesday night, a frontal boundary may set up in the north bringing chances for mainly snow. Lows along this boundary will remain in the teens and 20s, with 30s in the south away from this boundary.

Today's guidance delayed slightly the surface low moving out of the northern Rockies for Wednesday. The boundary mentioned for Tuesday night stalls in the north Wednesday, while mild and breezy zonal flow brings warming temperatures. Chances for rain and snow will be found in the north along this stalled boundary, while other areas see dry and breezy conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s. ECMWF EFI not showing much of a strong wind signal at this time for Wednesday. If this changes and min RH values lower, then perhaps some increased fire weather concerns are still possible. Surface high in Canada moves the mentioned front across the state sometime Wednesday night through Thursday. This will bring chances for rain and snow, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures with highs forecast on Thursday to be in the 20s and 30s, to some lower 40s south. Cool conditions may linger through Friday as the surface moves across the state. NBM spreads then show a warming trend returning for the upcoming weekend as another ridge is forecast to build across the west.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Lingering low clouds will bring low VFR/MVFR ceilings for a few hours this evening, along with isolated light rain or snow showers moving from northwest to southeast. Later tonight into Monday afternoon, VFR conditions expected at all terminals with SCT-BKN upper level clouds. Winds will become light and variable, then become southerly tonight into Monday morning. Western and northern TAF locations (KXWA, KDIK, and KMOT) will see winds switching to more northerly Monday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.