textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low (west) to high (east) chances for mixed precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.

- Well below normal temperatures through Monday, followed by a strong warming trend with well above normal temperatures by the middle to end of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A shortwave is quickly moving across the state this afternoon bring through an area of low clouds that will quickly move out of the region as surface high pressure builds in behind. No precipitation is anticipated until Tuesday. A post frontal Arctic airmass will linger across the northeastern half of the state through Monday. This will lead to low temperatures tonight around 5 degrees above zero to 10 degrees below zero. Wind chills could drop as low as 25 degrees below zero tonight. High temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal Monday.

An upper level ridge is forecast to move from the Western CONUS into central CONUS early next week. An upper level system if forecast to round the top of the ridge next Tuesday bringing forth precipitation across central and eastern North Dakota. There is some uncertainty with this system as it does have freezing rain across the Missouri River Valley into the James River Valley with a wintry mix possible as well. The timing of the main precipitation is has shifted to the early morning hours. Now the system timing will influence how impactful this event will be to the region. If this system comes through during the day the solar insolation could keep road surface temperatures well above freezing limiting impacts. If this system comes overnight it could cause issues for the morning commute. Temperatures are forecast to rapidly warm up Tuesday limiting the duration of this event if it is impactful. High temperatures are forecast be above freezing in the James River Valley to the upper 50s out west.

Temperatures are forecast to warm up across the state starting west to east Tuesday into the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s to 70s across the state by the end of the week. The NBM 75th percentile being above 70 and near 80 for KBIS Wednesday through Friday and the NBM 25th percentile is forecast to be around 60. This upper level ridge looks to stall across the western and central US into early next week leading to warm above normal temperatures and dry conditions across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

There is an area of low clouds across the western half of the state forecast to move through the region. This has brought forth MVFR conditions to KXWA and KDIK for the next few hours. These low clouds are forecast to move through KBIS bringing forth MVFR conditions to KBIS. There could be some blowing snow at KJMS this afternoon with wind gusts dying down tonight. VFR conditions are forecast to return this evening across the region.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.