textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Frigid temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills continue tonight into Monday morning.

- Warmer but still below average temperatures for the coming work week. Windy conditions on Monday.

- Only occasional low chances for light snow this coming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 959 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

High thin clouds are beginning to push from Canada into northern portions of the forecast area. Clouds will be hardly noticeable through the remainder of the evening, but will see a general increase in mid-high clouds overnight. Also warm advection is now pushing into western and central ND. Temperatures in eastern Montana are rising. In western ND some are but some are still falling too. In the next couple we should see a more substantial increase in temperatures propagating from west to east. Wind chills at a few locales in the southwest are at/near criteria but with temperatures rising soon, will not expand the current Cold Weather Advisory. Only some minor updates to sky cover and also freshened up winds and wind gusts tonight and Monday. Updated text products out shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

No changes to the forecast early this evening. Clear and cold across the forecast area this evening. Increasing high clouds late tonight. Updated products will be transmitted shortly. No changes to ongoing Cold Weather Advisory.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Somewhat chaotic flow is found aloft over the northern Plains this afternoon as we're stuck between rather persistant ridging across the Pacific Northwest, and a number of shortwave perturbations ejecting off a Hudson Bay Low to our northeast. Highs today remain very cold, from around zero in the southwest down to 15 below zero in the Turtle Mountains area. The aforementioned ridge is expected to begin to expand and displace the arctic airmass overnight. As a result our lows tonight, from around 10 below southwest to 20 below in the north central, are expected to occur this evening before temperature warm through the morning. That being said, winds are similarly expected to increase overnight as a 40-45kt 850mb jet develops, becoming breezy with speeds from 15 to 25 MPH and gusts as high as 35 MPH. With this, cold wind chills as low as 40 below zero are again expected across portions of northwestern and central North Dakota tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory is thus in effect through mid Monday morning.

With the displacement of the arctic air mass to our east, Monday is anticipated to be the warmest day of the coming workweek. Highs are forecast from around 10 in the Turtle Mountains area, up to the mid 20s in the southwest. Breezy southwest winds will linger through the day which will promote patchy blowing and drifting snow across much of the forecast area through Monday evening. Otherwise, low temperatures on Monday are from 10 below southwest to 20 below in north central North Dakota.

A weak shortwave trough is expected to dig across northeastern North Dakota Monday night through Tuesday. While mainly putting a stop to our warm up, with highs on Tuesday forecast from around zero north central up to the lower 20s in the southwest, this wave will also promote a low chance (less than 20 percent) for light snow across western and central North Dakota in the late evening through Wednesday morning. While much of this is unexpected to accumulate, portions of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley could see a light dusting (low to medium chance) through this period.

Quiet weather generally persists through the day Wednesday, with lingering highs similar to Tuesday (around zero north central up to the lower 20s in the southwest). Then, late Wednesday night through Thursday, another shortwave ejecting off the Hudson Bay Low is expected to slide down the building ridge across the west. With this, low chances (less than 20 percent) for light, non-accumulating snow is anticipated across portions of the west and south central through Thursday afternoon. These PoPs are mainly driven by a wet minority cluster (approx. 30 percent of ensemble members) which favors a dusting of snow across the west and south central, though notably this cluster is driven by almost entirely by the GEFS. The majority of other ensemble members (approx. 70 percent) favor little to no snow through Thursday afternoon. With the aforementioned wave pushing against the encroaching ridge, the temperatures gradient across the forecast area is displaced a little further west. The ensemble thus advertises slightly lower high temperatures both Thursday and Friday, broadly in the positive single digits northwest and central, while portions of the far southwest linger in the teens to mid twenties.

The eventual displacement and opening of the Hudson Bay low by the end of the workweek will allow for a slightly more active, northwesterly flow pattern to set up across the northern Plains. With this, a slightly more energetic closed low is anticipated to drop out of the southern Canadian Prairies early Saturday through Sunday, promoting more widespread chances for snowfall through the weekend. Cluster analysis reveals two broad scenarios at the time of this forecast, mainly depending on how quickly the influence of the Hudson Bay low diminishes. A majority of model members (approx 60 percent) favor a warm and dry solution, with highs across the south broadly climbing to around or above freezing this weekend, and with overall snow totals more limited to a trace to a few tenths of an inch at most. A minority cluster (approx. 40 percent) also exists, and is the cooler and slightly wetter of the two, with above freezing temperatures more restricted to just the southwest, and portions of the far north central potentially exceeding an inch of snow overall (low to medium chance). In either scenario, the more active northwesterly patter is anticipated to linger through early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 959 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected tonight at all TAF sites. A cold front moving southeast through the State Monday will bring the potential for a brief period of MVFR ceilings along the cold front as it pushes through the state, impacting all TAF sites. However, at this time it appears KMOT will have the highest probability for MVFR ceilings lasting long enough to include in the TAF. Any precip is currently expected to remain east of the forecast area. South to southwest winds tonight will shift northwest Monday and increase to 15 to 30 kts with some higher gusts possible. All TAF sites will experience LLWS late tonight into Monday morning, with strong winds aloft.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.