textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind Advisory in effect through this morning for strong west to northwest winds.

- Temperatures near to a little below normal for the next several days.

- Mostly dry through the weekend, then chances for rain and snow Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A cold front has pushed through western and most of central ND as of just before 4AM CDT. Behind the cold front, winds have been gusting to 35 to 45 mph, with an occasional gust to 45-50 mph. The fall-rise couplet has passed but pressure rises, strong gradient winds and cold advection will continue through 12-15 UTC before dropping off late morning and through the afternoon. May have to monitor the winds over eastern portions of the forecast area this morning to see if we would possibly need to extend the advisory for a while, if so, think it would be in the north central rather than the JRV.

Light post-frontal precipitation in northeast Montana is quickly drying up as it pushes east. If there is any measurable precipitation in the northwest it will be done by 12 UTC. Strong subsidence behind the front will also continue to erode the lower cloud deck behind the cold front. Considerable clouds early this morning will be on the decrease with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected by this afternoon. Highs are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

High pressure will build over the forecast area tonight with lows mainly in the 20s, with some readings in the teens possible.

On Sunday, a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest begins lifting northward. Mid and upper level moisture with this low approaches southern ND by late in the day, but precipitation is expected to stay shunted south of the forecast area. There could be some light precipitation slipping into the far south Sunday night, but most if not all should remain south of the border. Another cool day is expected Sunday with highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the 20s to lower 30s.

The aforementioned closed upper low finally lifts through the central and into the northern Plains Monday through Tuesday. On Monday, light precipitation should remain along and south of the I-94 corridor through the morning, with precipitation lifting northward through the forecast area Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Medium range guidance has been going back and forth as whether to lift this system into ND or keep it south. Currently there is relatively good agreement on the upper level system lifting into North Dakota Monday night. Although qpf amounts are not overly impressive, and they do diminish as they lift northward into blocking high pressure situated over Canada, there is a decent signal for some beneficial liquid with this system.

The NBM 24 hour probability of at least a quarter of precip ending at 12Z Tuesday ranges from around 30 percent from Hettinger to Bismarck and Carrington, up to around 80 percent in the southern James River Valley (Dickey and LaMoure Counties). With the current timing, a good portion of this precip would lift through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Precipitation should be rain to begin with on Monday, but as we cool off Monday night, we could definitely see a transition to a mix of rain and snow, then possibly all snow by early Tuesday morning. The NBM is showing some low to moderate probabilities (20 to 60%) of an inch or more of snow over portions of southwest and south central ND, during this same timeframe (ending 12Z Tuesday). The highest probabilities are centered south and west of Bismarck along the SD border.

There is another quick moving system that approaches from the west around mid-week. This system may also bring a chance of light rain and snow to the forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Cold front has just pushed through KMOT and KBIS and will continue eastward overnight. Southerly winds over eastern portions of central ND (including KJMS) will shift westerly in the next few hours. Otherwise west to northwest winds with gusts to around 40-45 kts initially behind the cdfnt, then mainly 25 to 35 kts overnight. Winds will diminish from west to east this morning, becoming light westerly by this evening. MVFR cloudiness pushing into western ND will push east to around the Highway 83 corridor before dissipating around mid morning. Only mid and high clouds expected by this afternoon and through the remainder of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037- 040>044-046-047-050-055>062.