textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and near to above normal temperatures are expected through the work week, possibly lasting through the day on Saturday.

- Much colder temperatures with medium chances for precipitation arrive for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A quiet evening continues across western and central North Dakota. While some high clouds are starting to push in, many spots should see some decent radiational cooling overnight. We are already seeing several readings in the low to mid 40s. For this update, just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

No major changes needed for the evening forecast update. Just blended in the latest observations to the sensible weather fields and updated the aviation forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Quiet weather looks to be in store through the remainder of the work week and into the first half of the weekend. A bit more unsettled and uncertain for the latter half of the weekend and into next week.

Currently, high pressure was building southeast over the area behind a weak dry cold front. Winds were generally 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Humidities were mainly 20 to 25% over southwest and far south central ND this afternoon, with a few readings under 20% in Bowman county. Winds are expected remain in this range or just a bit stronger for a few more hours, then drop off pretty quickly late this afternoon into early evening. Will maintain near critical fire weather conditions in the far southwest.

For tonight, we did utilize a blend of NBM and NBM10 to get some lower temperatures in the forecast, which seems reasonable given clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. This has been the case the last couple of nights. A sprinkle or isolated shower can not be ruled out in the north central as upper level jet energy swings through here tonight.

Wednesday and Thursday will be a little cooler than today with highs mainly in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Upper level ridging takes place over the northern Plains Friday and into the weekend ahead of a digging western trough. There has been a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of this system and the uncertainty still remains. However, here's a few things we do know.

As the upper low drop south into the Pacific Northwest Friday night into Saturday, there is good agreement that energy with this system splits. A portion of the energy will continue to drop south with a possible closed upper low around the West Coast. A portion of the energy will also propagate eastward along the International Border as a northern stream wave. This would put better precipitation chances northeast and southwest of the forecast area. There will be a cold front that drops through our area, and in looking at the NBM Viewer, the probability of a tenth of an inch or more of liquid from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday ranges from 20-30 percent in the James River Valley to 60-70 percent over southwest ND (and 30 to 50% northwest and central ND). The initial precipitation chances look to be delayed a bit, and there's a lot of uncertainty in how far the cold front drop through the area, and this will have implications on where the more vigorous forcing will set up. The cold front does continue to sag southward early next week, so low to medium precipitation chances may linger over the area into Tuesday, bringing additional chance for generally light qpf amounts.

It will be significantly colder by late weekend and early next week, especially given our recent spell of above normal temperatures. However, the magnitude of the cold air remains in question. Latest deterministic and ensemble model runs are backing off a bit on how cold it gets Sunday and Monday. Currently, highs on Sunday range form the mid 40s northwest to the mid 60s in the southern James River Valley. On Monday, highs are currently forecast to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, with upper 40s to mid 50s forecast for Tuesday. With the colder temperatures, we could see a little mix of rain and snow Sunday night into Monday morning, and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Any snow amounts look to be negligible at this time.

From a cluster analysis standpoint, the consensus is that the upper level energy that drops south Friday night into Saturday will close off over the western U.S. A cluster analysis centered on the Monday evening through Tuesday evening timeframe shows practically a 70 percent probability for a closed upper low over the Great Basin area, with upper ridging to it's north and east, including over North Dakota. This is compared to a 30 percent probability for a more progressive trough tracking through the northern Plains. Of the 70 percent probability, remarkably, there is quite an equal weighting of the 3 separate model cores. The question then becomes, what happens if/when this closed upper low lifts back into our neck of the woods. Well, that's beyond the end of our forecast so you'll have to tune back at a later date to find out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the 00z TAF period. Winds will continue to diminish this evening. Northwest winds will become fairly breezy once again Wednesday afternoon at most sites with a few gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.