textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm will impact the region tonight into Saturday. Additional snowfall tonight through Saturday will be 4 to 10 inches south central to southeast. Elsewhere will see a trace to 4 inches, with little to no snow expected in the northwest. - Dry and seasonably cool Saturday night through Monday night.

- Low chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday night and windy Easter Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1015 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Winter storm remains on track with snow continuing across much of southwest, central, and eastern North Dakota. Highlights overall remain on track, although webcams and NDARB Bowman Radar show impactful snow ending in Golden Valley county. Thus cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for this county. Otherwise areas within the remaining winter weather products still have ongoing snow and winter impacts, thus will allow these to continue. NDDOT reporting a variety or road conditions currently. Those traveling tonight or Saturday morning should check the latest road reports or consider delaying travel plans.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Snow continues to progress across the southwest to central to eastern portions of the state early this evening. There is a clear area of dry air to the northwest of this heavy snow, thus dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for McKenzie county. Most of Mountrail county will remain dry, with some light snow in the far southeastern portions. Given the mainly dry forecast to only light snow in this areas, decided to drop the Winter Weather Advisory from Mountrail county as well. The remaining Winter Weather Advisory should see snow start to increase in coverage and rates this evening although some uncertainty in how far north the heavier snow can get. Will continue to monitor this northern progression, yet maintain the remaining advisories. The Winter Storm Warning remains on track with moderate to heavy snow and visibilities a mile or less in these areas. NDARB Radar in Bowman showing snow starting to diminish somewhat in the southwest. Will monitor this for any needed headline adjustments later in the shift. Anyone traveling tonight should check the latest road reports or consider delaying travel plans.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An upper level low pressure system continues to dig across southwestern South Dakota placing southern North Dakota in upper right quadrant of the low. This has lead to widespread divergence aloft, thus being the forcing mechanism for the current snow. The upper low is forecast to move up into the eastern South Dakota keeping the southwest and south central in the deformation band this afternoon and evening. The heaviest snow is forecast to fall this afternoon and evening with a few inches of additional snowfall tonight. The latest model guidance has shifted the heaviest snow axis a bit further south and also tightened up the gradient of areas that will get snow and no snow. There will be a sharp gradient of snow and no snow. Thus, will likely keep snow south of US HWY 2 with the heaviest snow south I-94. However, if the upper low pivots farther north this could lead to snow north of US HWY 2. An additional 6-10 inches are forecast for south central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Snow will begin to tapper off tonight into early tomorrow clearing west to east.

After this upper low moves east northwest flow will follow. This will result in another clipper system moving through the region Easter Sunday. This system will like only bring wind as much of precipitation is forecast to remain in Canada. However, there are some showers possible across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a little bit of instability so there could be some thunderstorms with this system. Below normal temperatures are forecast to linger this weekend due to snow pack and a colder air mass. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 30s across the east and lower 50s west Saturday and Sunday. The clipper system Easter Sunday will bring in a colder airmass keeping Monday in the 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Tuesday, temperatures are forecast to warm up out west into the 60s as a ridge axis moves across the area. Places with snow pack will remain in the 30s to 40s. However, snow pack should be dwindling by then with the higher sun angle and above freezing daytime high temperatures. Wednesday is forecast to be maybe near normal day. An upper low is forecast to move through the region Wednesday. This upper low track is forecast across Canada southern. Our placement with the upper low will bring strong winds across the region and little precipitation. The pattern after the middle of next week remains uncertain and active. There is a large spread with the NBM 25th to 75th percentile for temperatures next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Snow will continue IFR to LIFR conditions across much of southern sites tonight, with a mix of IFR and MVFR snow or clouds ceilings through the night across remaining TAF sites. The exception being KXWA where snow is no longer expected, yet low VFR to MVFR ceilings are possible tonight. Snow then ends from west to east late tonight through the morning Saturday. Most sites will see ceilings improved to MVFR to low VFR as snow ends. Winds will become northwesterly tonight through Saturday, and become breezy in eastern portions. These breezy winds may bring some patchy blowing snow.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ005- 011>013. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for NDZ018>020-032>034-040>045. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ021>023- 025-035>037-046>048-050-051.