textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will push across the state from west to east today through tonight. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible, especially in the west.

- Showers and thunderstorms may again be found on Tuesday, mainly in the north and east. An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible. Expected breezy northwest winds elsewhere.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will be found mid week, with increasing chances later this week into this weekend.

- Temperatures will remain below average through the middle of this week, with a slight warm up favored for the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Current forecast remains on track. Isolated showers continue over the north central. There have been a few lightning strikes over the past hour. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over western ND this afternoon and this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 926 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Isolated showers remain over portions of central ND this morning. We did expand a slight chance of showers south to cover much of the central through the morning. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Showers continue to be found in the north central and some central portions from a weak warm front lifting through. These showers will linger and push eastward through the morning. The next round of showers and thunderstorms has already developed in eastern Montana, yet are slowly moving eastward. These should keep with the current forecast timing of arriving in the west this afternoon then moving eastward through the night. Otherwise, some patchy fog and mist reports continue to be found across the west this morning and may linger into the mid to late morning hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A weak warm front will lift across the state this morning. This will bring some showers to mainly central and a few eastern areas. Meanwhile, some increasing low level moisture will bring some areas of fog across the southwest this morning. Later today through tonight, an upper level wave and weak cold front will push across the state from west to east. This will bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Low to modest instability combined with high shear could bring some strong to severe thunderstorms during this time period, mainly to western and some central portions. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe weather in the southwest today. This area sees the higher shear values overlap with the mentioned modest CAPE. Main threat still looks to be hail to the size of quarters given the high amounts of shear, although CAPE profiles look somewhat skinny. DCAPE is low, yet 0 to 3 KM shear is high. Perhaps some wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible as a result. Pwat values are forecast near to slightly above an inch, which could indicate some localized heavy rain possible. WPC currently has northern and some central portions in a Marginal Risk for excessive rain as well today through tonight. Otherwise look for slightly warmer temperatures today, with highs generally in the 70s. A steady south wind will also be found today, switching to the west tonight with passage of the cold front. Lows tonight will generally be near 50 degrees. Post frontal day is expected for Tuesday, with breezy northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms could be found across the north and some eastern areas for Tuesday. SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather in eastern ND on Tuesday, and will greatly depend on timing of the eastward progression of the cold front. Most of this Marginal Risk is east of the CWA, although an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, mainly in the James River Valley. Precipitation diminishes Tuesday night, with cooler lows in the 40s west to near 50 degrees east.

Broad upper low could remain across southern Canada mid week, bringing northwest flow to the area. Slight to chance PoPs remain in the north for Wednesday to account for this stalled upper low, while generally dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Slightly below normal temperatures may linger for Wednesday, with some breezy northwest winds in the east. Weak ridging is forecast to move through for Thursday and should bring a mainly dry forecast except for some slight chances in the northeast and southwest. Warming temperatures in the 70s will also be found for Thursday, with light winds becoming east southeast.

Friday through the upcoming weekend a return to active weather could be in store as the weak ridging gives way to a large trough pattern from a broad upper low in the west. The southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface should at least provide for warming temperatures Friday through the weekend. However, this southerly flow could be breezy to windy with the ECMWF EFI values starting to get elevated for Saturday and Sunday. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will also return with this pattern. SPC discussion for days 4-8 still makes mention of this unsettled pattern bringing severe weather to the plains, however, timing and location remain uncertain. NSSL and CSU machine learning guidance still indicating severe weather may return each day, especially Saturday and Sunday. Something to continue to monitor for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move west to east across western and central ND later this afternoon through tonight. Any storms will have the capability to produce gusty and erratic winds, with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities in localized heavy downpours. Southerly surface flow ahead of this activity this afternoon into this evening will shift westerly behind the shower and thunderstorm activity. Behind the showers and thunderstorms tonight look for areas of MVFR to possibly some IFR ceilings in low stratus and possibly some areas of fog.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.