textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- low-level stratus clearing slowly over central North Dakota this evening, but most likely remaining, especially over eastern portions of central North Dakota, into Wednesday.

- Breezy conditions Wednesday mainly across southeast North Dakota, including the James River Valley. - High temperatures near to above average with mostly dry conditions are favored through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Fog continues to expand southward impacting Wells, Sheridan, and Foster counties. Fog is forecast to expand southwestward into the south central North Dakota later this morning. No major updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 933 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

We issued a small dense fog advisory for portions of north central ND, Rolette, Pierce and McHenry counties. Fog extends a little more west into western Ward county and south into northern Wells county. At this time satellite indicates that it's just a small portion of Ward county. Harder to tell with Wells, with widespread stratus and only a few webcams. We may need to extend the Advisory depending on satellite and observation trends. Guidance suggests that the fog won't expand farther west. However, satellite does look to show some patch fog developing over Mercer, McLean and Oliver counties. Guidance also suggest that the fog should already extend south across the I94 corridor and that doesn't seem to be the case. Being the fog is developing along the western cloud shield and guidance doesn't seem to have a great handle on the fog over central ND, it may be a case were the areal extent of the Advisory is based solely on satellite and observational trends.

Out west, all is quiet. As mentioned earlier, went with some drizzle over the southern James River Valley tonight into Wednesday morning. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 806 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Stratus has pretty much stopped dissipating, and now is moving back west in some areas. Fog is also developing along the edge and around 30 miles either side of the back edge of stratus. Adjusted sky cover a bit based on latest satellite imagery and expectations for some westward fog development. Also add some fog mainly along and east of the Highway 83 corridor. Not much in the way of rain over the southern JRV, but there are some light reflectivities and lowering of visibilities east of there, so went with a mention of drizzle here, instead of rain.

UPDATE Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Only some minor adjustments to sky cover over central ND with the early evening updated based on latest satellite imagery. Stratus was finally clearing quickly from west to east over central ND late this afternoon. Current upper air observation shows tHe stratus layer has thinned quite a bit, but as we lose insolation, the clearing will probably slow up. Some guidance is indicating some fog on the western fringes if the stratus shield later tonight, mainly east of the Highway 83 corridor from Bismarck to Minot. Currently we don't have fog in the forecast so will monitor this evening. Other than the clearing line and possible fog, a quiet night looks to be in store.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Dual surface lows over northern and southern portions of the midwest are in the process of merging over the vicinity of eastern Iowa. After which, models agree that the singular circulation will then migrate northward into northern Wisconsin, and possibly retrograde to some degree into central Minnesota. The primary impact for the CWA is that this will maintain thick cloud cover and rain/drizzle chances through Wednesday across parts of the south central, and especially in the southern James River Valley of ND. For the rest of the forecast area to include western and north central North Dakota, skies will continue to clear as high pressure works into the area.

Once aforementioned surface low kicks off to the east Wednesday night, another surface surface high pressure will gradually filter in behind and pass through the state Thursday into Thursday night. Simultaneously, a ridge currently over the Rockies/High Plains will gradually slide eastward over the Northern Plains. This will result in mostly dry conditions and temperatures that remain above average through most of the week. The exception being Thursday where stated high pressure will keep conditions cooler (seasonable) along, north, and east of the Missouri River.

For Friday through this weekend, models are in fair agreement that flow aloft will become more northwesterly as the ridge flattens. While the latest NBM is currently dry; embedded shortwave energy could produce light precipitation when all is said and done. A transitory ridge could then bring the warmest temperatures of the forecast period to the western half of the state, with the NBM currently plotting some highs in the 60s on Sunday. That said, overall trends to finish this week and enter into early next week are for well above average temperatures that are only slightly warmer than this week, but increasingly above average as the calendar moves further into November.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies are expected across western North Dakota through the 06Z TAF period, with light winds tonight becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph Wednesday.

MVFR to IFR ceilings in low stratus over central and into eastern ND. Stratus has moved back west towards Minot this evening and fog has developed around KMOT. The back edge of the stratus shield is also right over Bismarck. KJMS will likely see MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight and Wednesday morning, with VFR conditions developing Wednesday afternoon. KBIS may or may not clear out tonight, and if it does clear, fog would be a possibility. Fog may remain around KMOT through the night, although guidance suggests it should move out towards morning. Obviously KBIS and KMOT are the two troublesome TAF sites tonight, and will probably lean towards the pessimistic side through mid morning Wednesday. Once stratus/fog clear Wednesday morning, VFR conditions should prevail at KMOT and KBIS through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ005-012- 013-022-023-025.