textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures through the weekend, warming to above normal early to mid next week.

- Periods of breezy winds expected Saturday and again early next week. - An overall dry weather pattern expected through at least the middle of next week, with low chances for very light rain tonight and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Limited updates needed at this time. A weak cold front will move through tonight through Saturday. This could bring some isolated to scattered showers, with steep enough mid level lapse rates for a few thunderstorms. This is starting to materialized upstream in Montana. Will to continue to monitor the progression of these showers. With PoPs already in place, the forecast overall remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Weak radar returns linger over portions of north central into northeastern North Dakota at the time of this mid to late evening update, though little to no ground observations of precpitation can be found at this time. Later tonight through Saturday morning, the passage of a low pressure system and associated occluding front across the northern Plains is expected to promote scattered showers over portions of western and central North Dakota. While near surface moisture saturation is expected to remain limited through this period, sufficient saturation aloft and ample forcing from the passage of both the occluding front and a developing H7 jetstreak is expected to allow precpitation to reach the ground. Thus for this update we have opted to propagate low chances (15 to 35 percent) across first western and south central North Dakota, then northwestern and central North Dakota tonight through late Saturday morning. Overall QPF is expected to be very light, up to around only a few hundreths of an inch at most.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Isolated weak radar returns continue to skim over portions of north central into northeastern North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Dry near surface conditions, with dewpt depressions around 10 to 20 degrees, will prevent much of this rain from reaching the ground though some sprinkles will remain possible over this area through the evening. Otherwise, breezy south to southeast winds have generally begun to diminish this evening though remain somewhat gusty over portions of central North Dakota. Winds will become calm and variable in direction overnight before strengthening and reorganizing out of the northwest late tonight through Saturday morning. No major adjustments to the forecast were performed with this update as it remains broadly on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

As the surface high continues to move east this afternoon, a weak disturbance aloft will lift the stalled front in the west and produce some weak isentropic lift. This has brought increased clouds and a few very light sprinkles to areas out west. An increased gradient at the surface will bring some breezy southerly winds. Slightly warmer temperatures will be found in the west and the warmer side of the elevated front, with highs near 70 degrees. Otherwise areas east will generally see highs in the 60s.

A surface low will move through tonight into tomorrow. As a result more scattered light rain showers or sprinkles are possible tonight through much of the day tomorrow. Behind the weak cold front wind will shift to be breezy and from the northwest in the early afternoon tomorrow. Dry conditions are expected behind the cold front. Low RH combined with breezy northwest winds could bring some increased fire weather concern Saturday afternoon and early evening for areas in the far southwest. High temperatures will be in the 60s to lower 70s Saturday.

Saturday night through Sunday high pressure will return weakening winds, with clear skies, and cooler overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Sunday, look for seasonable highs in the 60s to near 70 along with light winds. As we move into next week, there will be a brief warming period due to a building ridge centered in the Southern Plains raising high temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday. Breezy south winds return to areas out east Monday afternoon. Winds combined with low RH bring back increased fire weather concerns Tuesday, again for areas focused to the southwest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will be found through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers could be found tonight through early Saturday afternoon. These may bring some brief MVFR conditions, although confidence is only low to moderate. For now placed in PROB30 to sites with a chance for these showers. Otherwise winds will become westerly on Saturday, and may be breezy at times. Some low level wind shear is possible across the east, including KJMS, tonight into Saturday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.