textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend today through Friday, then slightly cooler for the weekend. Windy Friday and Saturday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible in far northwest North Dakota on Friday, with near-critical elsewhere.

- Sub-freezing low temperatures possible Saturday night.

- Above normal temperatures favored next week.

- Only occasional low chances for light rain showers through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

It is another chilly morning across western and central North Dakota, with widespread temperatures in the 20s and teens. In fact, Bismarck has preliminarily tied a daily record low at 22 degrees! Overall, the forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A cyclonic northwest flow pattern will more or less persist over the Northern Plains through this weekend. A quiet weather day is anticipated for most of western and central North Dakota today, with light winds under a benign surface pattern. An appreciable warmup is also expected, with forecast highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s much closer to, but still slightly below normal. A few stray showers could skirt across the Montana border into western North Dakota this afternoon and evening as a shortwave passes by to the west, but the chance of measurable rainfall is very low, if not zero. The quieter weather should continue through tonight, with warmer low temperatures forecast in the 30s. Low-lying sheltered areas could still fall below freezing tonight.

Friday will see an increase in wind speed at all levels of the atmosphere as an upper level shortwave digs into the southern Canadian prairie provinces. Temperatures should take another leap forward on Friday, with the NBM showing high confidence in highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With northwest winds increasing to 25 to 30 mph and gusting to 40 mph along with relative humidity falling into the 20 to 30 percent range, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of western and central North Dakota Friday afternoon and early evening. The most concerning area is the far northwest where we are anticipating the greatest overlap of low humidity and strong winds. This is also where the strongest 850 mb winds are forecast to be located, which local research shows is often correspondent to larger wildfires. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Divide, Williams, and McKenzie Counties for Friday afternoon and early evening. A secondary area of greater fire weather concern on Friday that will need to be evaluated with future forecast updates is the James River Valley and adjacent areas to the west.

The southern Canadian shortwave is forecast to drive a cold front through the state Friday evening and night. Magnitudes of surface pressure rises and cold air advection are not that high, so not anticipating wind gusts beyond what is observed ahead of the front in the afternoon (winds aloft are also forecast to weaken Friday evening). There is a potential though for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms both ahead of the cold front in the afternoon on account of diurnal heating with above-convective temperatures and with/trailing the front as DCVA increases. Forecast soundings and CAM output indicate strong, gusty winds could accompany any showers or storms. On the aggressive end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAMnest brings a linear complex of thunderstorms from north central to southeast North Dakota late Friday evening. There will be no shortage of effective bulk shear, but ensemble maximum MUCAPE is only around 200 to 300 J/kg, so this solution seems like an unreasonable outlier at this time.

The post frontal air mass will limit high temperatures to the 50s and lower 60s on Saturday as high pressure builds over the Canadian prairie provinces. The positioning of the high Saturday night could allow temperatures to fall below freezing across much of the state. With the growing season officially beginning on Friday, it continues to look increasingly likely that frost/freeze headlines will be needed Saturday night. A slight warm up is favored on Sunday with an increasing temperature contrast from east (still cool) to west (warmer). For Sunday night through Monday, there is now increasing ensemble consistency on a higher-amplitude, transient upper level ridge preceding a potent shortwave ejecting off the southern Canadian Rockies and digging into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Monday night. The timing and placement of the thermal ridge could allow high temperatures to climb to around or perhaps above 80 along and to the south and west of the Missouri River on Monday. This system is likely to cause windy conditions on Monday, along with increased chances for light rain. But forecast details for those elements remain highly uncertain, and cluster analysis does not appear to favor one particular outcome over others. The important consideration for Monday is that the stronger the wind forecast becomes, the more the risk for fire weather concerns increases. The NBM has already been highlighting western North Dakota for potential critical fire weather conditions on Monday, and there could also be a wind shift in play from the cold front attendant to the shortwave.

Depending on the track, timing, and strength of the Monday system, Tuesday could feature a slight cool down. But overall, there is strong ensemble support for near to above normal temperatures through much of next week. Cluster analysis shows potential for a higher-amplitude, progressive wave pattern next week that could bring better chances for rain through the region. But there is also a solution that would place the Northern Plains under an anticyclonic northwest flow with strong ridging over the western CONUS that would be more likely to prolong the stretch of abnormally dry weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with mid to high clouds increasing from west to east throughout today. There is a low chance for a stray shower from KXWA to KDIK later this afternoon and evening, with no impacts to aviation anticipated. Mostly light and variable winds this morning, becoming northwest around 10 kts this afternoon, then returning to light and variable this evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NDZ001-009-017.