textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds continue to gradually diminish tonight.

- Below average temperatures through Wednesday followed by a warming trend to finish out the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For late evening update, main change was to increase cloud cover. Clouds have been a bit reluctant to dissipate thanks to persistant cyclonic flow over the area. With that said, there have been no reports of precipitation as of late, therefore will keep forecast dry.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty north to northwest winds will continue for another hour or so but will then diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Going forecast reflects this well, and no changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue through this afternoon before rapidly diminishing as the sun sets this evening. For the most part, most locations are seeing winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. However, there are periods where some locations are seeing sustained winds of around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Combined with minimum relative humidity values mostly ranging from 30 to 40 percent, near critical fire weather conditions will persist this afternoon, especially south of I94.

In regard to precipitation chances, a few isolated showers remain possible this afternoon and evening. These would mostly be in the form of rain, though some snow could mix in as well. However, surface low pressure currently over Ontario will continue lifting off to the northeast through tonight, which will result in direct influence from the low waning. With dry air remaining in place and a loss of good cyclonic forcing, the probability of seeing anything measurable overnight remains low.

For Tuesday through Wednesday, surface high pressure will gradually filter into the Dakotas. This will help maintain below average temperatures and mostly dry conditions, including lows into the 20s for most locations through Wednesday night. Northerly to northwesterly winds should remain breezy Tuesday as the high approaches before becoming light and occasionally variable Tuesday night. After which, winds should remain relatively light through the remainder of the workweek.

A west CONUS ridge is progged to build and gradually slide eastward to finish out the week. This favors a warming trend towards seasonable temperatures for the latter half of the week and lows mostly returning to above freezing. Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue as well, though embedded shortwaves could bring the return of low precipitation chances this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty northerly to northwesterly winds will diminish this evening, but winds will become gusty again by late morning Tuesday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.