textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and mostly dry this weekend, with a low chance of light rain and snow in western and south central North Dakota this evening.

- Temperatures remain closer to average for the upcoming work week, with highs mostly in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

- Low to medium chances for light mixed precipitation Monday through Thursday. Little to no impacts expected at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Band of warm advection and weak FG forcing from west central into south central ND attim. Could be a lingering sprinkle or flurry southwest but latest Bowman radar shows precip tapering over the southwest. No impacts anticipated with only slight chance pops this evening and into the early overnight hours. Other than some slight massaging of pops and tweaks to sky cover, no changes were needed to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Flow over the northern Plains is turning increasingly northwesterly this afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave disturbance sliding down this pattern will induce isolated to scattered showers across portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, bolstered by some weak FG forcing and modest mid level lapse rates sliding from west to east through early tonight. While most CAMs restrict this FG forcing to mainly the southwest and south central, and capture its rapid dissipation by the early to mid evening, the latest HRRR runs continue to favor its persistence and expansion northward as it slides across central North Dakota, which would allow for the uptick in PoPs in north central North Dakota through the late evening. While much of this precipitation is anticipated to fall as rain, the gradual cooling of the column through this afternoon and evening may allow for some light snow to mix in across the northern and eastern edge of the precipitation axis. That being, QPF is anticipated to be fairly limited, with only a few hundreths up to maybe a tenth of an inch of precipitation anticipated at any given location. Any snow that does fall should be short-lived due to warm surface conditions, with little to no accumulations expected. Otherwise, for today seasonable highs in from the mid 30s to lower 40s north mid 40s to lower 50s south are anticipated. Lows tonight are forecast from the lower to mid 20s north to the lower 30s south.

Dry and mostly calm conditions are then expected on Sunday as high pressure lingers over the eastern northern Plains. Slightly warmer highs, from the lower 40s north central to mid 50s southwest, are anticipated as southeasterly flow is found at the surface. Gusty winds, with speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH, are possible across the southwest as the pressure gradient tightens between the aforementioned high center, and an approaching surface low associated with a upper level Pacific trough/closed low moving across the Rockies late Sunday through Monday. With cloud cover increasing overnight, low temperatures Monday morning are also slightly warmer, from the lower 20s north central to the mid 30s southwest.

The aforementioned upper level Pacific trough/closed low will characterize a prolonged period of low to medium PoPs across the forecast area through the first half of the coming workweek. An initial, slow-moving impulse ejecting out ahead of the main wave is anticipated promote an initial round of precipitation early Monday through early Tuesday. Initially anticipated to fall as all rain, cooling surface temperatures paired with ongoing WAA in the lower levels could signal a potential period of light freezing drizzle/rain across portions of northern and central North Dakota Monday night through early Tuesday morning, with a general transition to snow found further to the north and east. While QPF during this period is anticipated to be light, with only around a hundreth or less of liquid precipitation advertised during this period, we will continue to monitor this potential moving forward. Otherwise, breezy southwest winds are also anticipated across much of northwestern and portions of central North Dakota Monday afternoon as CAA ramps up across the region. Once this initial round of precipitation diminishes through the day Tuesday, the main wave is anticipated to move across the northern Plains early Wednesday through Thursday, reinforcing the low to medium chances for precipitation through this period. With a split flow regime favored by a plurality of ensemble members during this period, precipitation is expected to remain fairly light overall through this whole period, with the probability to exceed even 0.10" overall Monday through Thursday less than 30 percent. With the mix of precipitation types anticipated, snow accumulations would be short-lived if they occur at all. Otherwise, during this period, high temperatures through the coming workweek are anticipated to be near normal for this time of year, broadly in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites except KDIK to begin the 00Z TAF period. Western ND, including KXWA and especially KDIK will be the most likely TAF sites to be impacted through the period with the potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings in low stratus, and also some potential for areas of fog. A band of VFR clouds and isolated rain/snow showers from west central into south central ND this evening will move slowly east and dissipate. Little if any precip is reaching the ground so did not include precip at KXWA and KBIS, which would be the most likely sites to see a stray rain/snow shower this evening. Later tonight into Sunday morning will bring the most likely period for possible low stratus/fog to the western TAF sites. At this time the most likely areas for fog look to be west of these TAF sites. Did include a period of MVFR ceilings at both TAF sites Sunday morning. Surface flow will be mostly light west turning light south to southeast at all TAF sites. VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period at KMOT and KJMS with NBM indicating less than a 20% chance of MVFR ceilings, while KBIS probability is slightly increased (around 25%).

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.