textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures favored for most areas this week, with highs in the 30s and 40s.

- Medium chances for light rain and snow across southern North Dakota this morning and afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Rain snow mix as been observed across the southwest so far this morning as the upper level wave moves close to the region. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 904 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Quiet weather continues across the state. There are some slight returns on RADAR however the precip is not touching the ground due to a mid level dry layer. There are some sites reporting rain in Montana as the upper level wave continues to move through the region and frontal boundary drops down.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The forecast for this morning remains on track. See below for more detailed discussion and updated aviation section.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Currently, zonal flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a S/WV trough over the Pacific Northwest and another S/WV to our northeast. Left exit region upper jet dynamics spreading east over the region, contributing to cloud cover and light radar returns. Elevated cloud bases over 7-8K Ft AGL preventing anything being reported at the surface early this morning, so will stick with low POPs initially.

Aforementioned Pacific NW S/WV will continue east over the Rockies and into the Dakotas today, interacting with a southward moving frontal boundary to bring decent precipitation chances to southwest and other parts of southern North Dakota this morning after 12Z and into the afternoon. Sufficient forcing associated with the mid level wave linking with low level frontogensis southwest where models show nearly a quarter inch of liquid through the day, some falling as snow but only light accumulations less than half an inch forecast. Lighter amounts farther east where linked forcing is weaker.

With the upper level jet stream migrating farther south over the next few days, temperatures will trend cooler compared to Sunday, but still above normal by about 15-20 degrees through mid-week. Quasi-zonal flow pattern transitions to split flow to end the week, nudging temperatures upwards and maintaining a mainly dry forecast.

Looking farther ahead to next weekend into the following week, ensembles are favoring a general troughing pattern over the western CONUS, with a more active southwest flow aloft pattern across the Northern Plains. Details highly uncertain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Snow will continue to move south of most terminals across the state this afternoon. However, there could be a low chance for snow in the southern terminals, thus prob 30s were added to the southern TAF sites. MVFR conditions could be present in snow and rain falling, tempos will be made for falling precipitation. MVFR conditions could return to the northeast tonight as stratus builds back in. This will likely not impact any of the TAF terminals at this time.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.