textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday. The threat for severe weather is low.

- Strong northwest winds are expected in southwestern and south central on today.

- Temperatures below normal today and Thursday, with highs mostly in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s. Slightly warmer and generally dry for Friday.

- Near seasonable temperatures with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A broad area of synoptic lift associated with a surface low and upper level wave is currently bringing a band of rain across central portions of the state. Expect this to slowly drift southward through the morning hours, with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms at times. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are then possible this afternoon into this evening, with low chances for severe weather. Overall the forecast remains on track with some minor changes to PoPs based on the recent radar trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Surface low will push eastward today, with an inverted surface trough placed across much of the CWA as it does so. All while an upper level wave also moves across the region. The result will be widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning, becoming more isolated to scattered this afternoon and evening. SPC has maintained a general risk for thunderstorms today, with the chances for severe thunderstorms low given a lack of shear and instability today. A strong low level jet and jet streak aloft will still provide for some strong winds across the southwest and some south central portions today, with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Will maintain the current Wind Advisory. Highs will be cooler today and generally in the 60s. Tonight, lingering precipitation should diminish later in the evening. Strong winds are also expected to diminish in the evening. Cooler lows in the 40s are expected for tonight. These cooler lows could bring higher humidity recoveries tonight. A steady northwest wind should limit the fog potential. Northwest flow aloft combined with some weak instability and modest shear could bring some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Right now the threat for severe weather looks to remain low. Slightly warmer temperatures may also be found, with high temperatures generally near 70 degrees. Cool temperatures Thursday night could again bring high humidity values. Patchy fog would again be possible, although a steady westerly wind looks to be found. Surface high then moves in across the west for Friday bringing slightly warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions. The exception being the eastern third of the state which remains close to an upper level low. These areas could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms along with some breezy northwest winds.

Clusters still indicate a weak ridge begins to build across the western US this weekend leaving ND in northwest to westerly flow. Look for temperatures to remain near normal this weekend, while the westerly flow opens the door for weak shortwaves to move through. This brings about near daily chances for showers and thunderstroms. Of note are some clusters favoring ECMWF ensembles showing higher chances for rain this weekend. CSU- MLP showing low chances for severe weather for this weekend. Depending on timing of individual waves, perhaps some breezy winds could be found at times this weekend. The mentioned weak ridging may take more shape early to mid next week and attempt to move eastward. This could bring warming temperatures to the state during this time period. Current forecast keeps chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week, diminishing some by mid next week. If this ridge pattern can get more established these chances would be more diminished.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A broad area of showers will move through this morning bringing MVFR to low VFR conditions. This afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms become more isolated to scattered although could still bring some MVFR to low VFR conditions at times. A mix of prevailing and PROB30 groups were used in TAFs based on confidence for precipitation timing and location. Mainly VFR conditions are then expected for tonight. Windy northwest winds are expected to develop today through this evening, diminishing tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ040>044-061-062.