textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog tonight into early Friday morning.

- Snow spreads from southwest to northeast on Friday, continuing through Friday night. Greatest snow amounts will be mainly southwest and parts of south central NoDak, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Well below average temperatures this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1233 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Modified sky cover and POPs with this early morning update.

Bowman radar starting to show some increasing returns near my far southwest, as lead embedded impulses approach from the west. Will see snow developing through the night as mid level forcing and frontogensis forcing develops into southwest ND now through 12Z, then continues to expand east after sunrise. Latest GEFS and EC Ensembles diverge, with the GEFS farther south with the heavier snowfall across my far southwest counties well south of I94, and the EC farther north encompassing most locations south and west of the Missouri River. NBM favors the EC. No changes to headlines with this product issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 939 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

No big changes to the forecast for tonight. Cloudy conditions with a mix of low level clouds central and east and increasing mid/upper level clouds west. Areas of fog central, though thus far sfc observations and web cam imagery not indicating widespread dense fog.

UPDATE Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Low stratus continues to expand across the north central and lower. As a result, there are some reduced visibility mainly along the convergence zone of the stratus deck. Therefore a special weather statement was issued for north central North Dakota for areas of fog leading to visibility reductions as low a 1/4 mile at times. Models have fog being patchy across the state tonight and maybe expanding like last night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from southern Saskatchewan through northwest and central North Dakota and into north central South Dakota, while low is noted over western Wyoming. Upper level analysis places low off the Pacific Northwest, with ridge over the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Northwest flow remains over the northern and central plains. Over our area, areas of low clouds linger over various locations, along with a few patches of fog given the moist low layers and little wind given the surface high.

For tonight, areas of fog will re-develop again but some question remains as to how low visibility will become given southeasterly winds will be developing as surface low meanders east and Wyoming surface low deepens. Will be monitoring closely to see if any fog related headlines will be needed. Otherwise, our next snow system starts to make its approach as aforementioned Pacific low opens up and combines with a short wave dropping from the northwestern provinces.

On Friday, aforementioned wave pushes into the region while a mid-level low tries to close off over our southwest. Broad isentropic lift will be on the increase, with snow starting in the southwest and spreading towards the east/north. Greatest snow amounts look to be along and south/west of the Missouri River along with southern portions of south central North Dakota, with notably high NBM probabilities of over 3 inches over much of this area. Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting Friday morning over much of the southwest, mid-day for remaining portions. Advisory will then run through the night until snow departs. For the aforementioned area, expect mainly 3 to 5 inches as NBM probabilities for 6 inches are 50 percent or less and not for a widespread area, but did make mention of the possibility of higher amounts if the mid- level forcing were to set up a heavier band.

Behind this system cold high pressure settles over the area, with the coldest air settling in Saturday night through Sunday night. Overnight lows at or below zero are expected with highs around 10 above for Sunday, about 20 to 25 degrees below average. Temperatures rebound some going into next week, but overall we remain generally below average. A variety of weak disturbances pass through the flow Tuesday onward, bringing low to medium snow chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Low stratus continues to linger across central areas of the state, along with areas of fog northwest and central. IFR conditions are thus expected to persist there. KJMS will fluctuate between VFR and MVFR cigs. There may be some visibility impacts as patchy dense fog forms. Amendments will be made for fog and/or stratus if it develops near any terminal. A weather disturbance will bring snow and associated low cigs and visibility to the southwest tonight, expanding north and east on Friday. Winds are forecast to remain out of the east through the period up to 15 knots (may see a bit higher winds to 20 knots at KDIK during the day Friday).

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ031>033-040>045.