textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- High chance (about 70 to 100 percent) for rain showers with a few thunderstorms today, though the showers will diminish from southwest to northeast over most locations later this morning into this afternoon.

- Gusty southerly winds will shift westerly behind a front from west to east today. Behind the front, winds will gust to 60 mph over western North Dakota, and around 50-55 mph over central North Dakota. Western areas have been upgraded to High Wind Warning, Wind Advisory in effect elsewhere.

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon over south central North Dakota given drier air moving in behind the ending precipitation and the increasing gusty winds.

UPDATE

Issued at 932 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Bulk of the rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue move eastward through the morning and early afternoon. Radar shows some clearing west and southwest of Bismarck, but that will be shortlived as there will several pop up showers forming ahead of the front. So far, rainfall amounts have been a tenth to a quarter of inch across most of the area. Several locales faired better, such as the southeast portion, with amounts of 1-1.5 inches from embedded thunderstorms. Forecast is still track with the strong gusty winds from the southeast and shifting to west by the midday.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rain showers and some thunderstorms continue to spread through the area this morning with gusty southerly to southeasterly winds. Going forecast reflects this well with no changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Current surface analysis places deep low along the border of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana, with high over the western Great Lakes. Upper level analysis places low along and just north of the international border between southern Alberta and northwest Montana. Over our area, a variety of short waves lifting in southwest flow ahead of the low area continue to produce showers and some thunderstorms now spreading through western and central North Dakota, while gusty southerly to southeasterly winds continue to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low.

For today, upper low will continue to track easterly along the international border with rain showers continuing to fill in early this morning. In the meantime, surface low transitions northward, crossing the intersection of the Montana, North Dakota, and Saskatchewan borders around mid-day. As it lifts northward this morning, drier air works in behind as a frontal boundary pushes in, with precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast. Ahead of the wind switch, breezy southerly winds will continue, but behind the boundary, winds will become westerly during the morning over western North Dakota, and the afternoon central. Strongest winds will be over western North Dakota where ample mixing of stronger winds aloft shown on latest forecast soundings should result in gusts to 60 mph this afternoon into this evening. The argument for stronger winds also continues to be reflected in the latest ECMWF-EFI which has been persistant with values of 0.9 and above in this area, and even showing some 0.95 with the latest run, readings which have historically been in line with high wind warning winds developing. The fly in the ointment, though, may be the rather modest at best cold air advection, but still think the strong winds will mix down. Therefore, have decided to upgrade to a High Wind Warning generally from Hettinger to Dickinson to Minot and points westward. Further east, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are expected, but will continue into the overnight hours before starting to back off. Have decided to add McIntosh and Dickey Counties to the Advisory given the anticipated higher winds spreading further southeast than previously thought.

A concern that develops with the high winds and the drier air moving in from southwest to northeast is fire weather, especially over the southwest where humidity values may dip into the 30s, possibly some upper 20s over the far southwest, which may dry out fuels depending on how much precipitation falls. For now, will advertise near critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on our far southwest to see if a Red Flag Warning may be needed if only little precipitation falls.

System pushes off to the east-northeast for Tuesday, with surface low sliding through Ontario. Some breezy conditions may remain over central North Dakota in the morning, but should be tapering off through he afternoon as the low continues its departure. Dry conditions expected in its wake.

On Wednesday a rather strong by fast moving short wave moves through, bringing a chance for rain showers to the area. Pattern remains unsettled with low to medium precipitation chances in the forecast to close out the week. Modest warming trend expected for the last part of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread from southwest to northeast early this morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings and some MVFR visibilities are expected when and where showers are most persistant. Showers are then expected to diminish later in the morning through the early afternoon, with ceilings improving fairly rapidly as showers cease, especially in the southwest. Gusty southerly winds gusting to 30 to 40 knots will turning to the west to northwest later this morning into this afternoon and becoming strong with sustained speeds up to 35 knots and gusts up to 50 knots over portions of western North Dakota, up to 40 knots elsewhere.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>003-009-010-017>019-031>033-040-041-043-044-055>057. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ020-042-058>062.