textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain near to below normal through next weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances through Thursday. Severe weather is not expected.

- Breezy to windy through most of the week, with the strongest winds on Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 549 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

No changes to the going forecast. Sunny skies across the forecast area late this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 70s. Breezy conditions some areas, but winds should drop off pretty quickly this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Currently weak northwest flow is over the Northern Plains, with a sharp ridge over the Pacific Northwest. A small shortwave is moving through western South Dakota with an associated upper level low. A band of high cirrostratus is over North Dakota in the moist conveyor belt in the upper level low. At the surface, high pressure is dominating the Northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley.

Tonight will not be as cold as last night, the southwest got down to 30, as today highs in the 70s will prevent that. Monday another shortwave dives into the state from Canada, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be very similar to today (in the 70s). During this time, an upper level low will slide into southern Canada, keeping us in this active cyclonic flow through the week. Expect daily chances for showers and non-severe thunderstorms through Thursday. Tuesday night into Wednesday is looking more like stratiform rain, with the highest QPF footprint located along the Missouri River in the west at 0.50 inches. With highs in the low 70s and no major jump starting features to kickoff explosive storms, no severe weather is expected. Since the pattern won't be changing, temperatures won't change much either. Highs will generally be near or below normal in the 70s. That upper level low will more or less get "stuck" in southern Canada until this weekend when a possible clipper pushes that low east.

This week will also be breezy to windy with all these shortwave surges and pressure gradients. Wednesday will be the most concerning windy day as the southwest could have sustained winds around 30mph, with gusts maybe around 50mph. This will likely be while its raining and will need either an Advisory or a High Wind Warning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 549 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the 00Z TAF period and only low probabilities (5 to 25 percent chance) of MVFR ceilings/visibilities in scattered rain showers and possible thunderstorms. Mostly clear this evening, then increasing high, then mid clouds late tonight into Monday morning. Shower activity will begin in the northwest around mid morning and spread south and east through the day, with thunderstorm activity possible mainly during the afternoon hours. Any thunderstorm could contain locally gusty winds and MVFR ceilings/visibilities in downpours. Winds will become breezy 15 to 25 knots mid to late morning, through the afternoon from the northwest, with locally higher gusts in any shower/thunderstorm activity.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.