textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog return tonight, possibly lingering into early Friday morning.

- Snow spreads from southwest to northeast on Friday, continuing through Friday night. Greatest snow amounts will be mainly southwest and parts of south central NoDak, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Well below average temperatures this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from southern Saskatchewan through northwest and central North Dakota and into north central South Dakota, while low is noted over western Wyoming. Upper level analysis places low off the Pacific Northwest, with ridge over the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Northwest flow remains over the northern and central plains. Over our area, areas of low clouds linger over various locations, along with a few patches of fog given the moist low layers and little wind given the surface high.

For tonight, areas of fog will re-develop again but some question remains as to how low visibility will become given southeasterly winds will be developing as surface low meanders east and Wyoming surface low deepens. Will be monitoring closely to see if any fog related headlines will be needed. Otherwise, our next snow system starts to make its approach as aforementioned Pacific low opens up and combines with a short wave dropping from the northwestern provinces.

On Friday, aforementioned wave pushes into the region while a mid-level low tries to close off over our southwest. Broad isentropic lift will be on the increase, with snow starting in the southwest and spreading towards the east/north. Greatest snow amounts look to be along and south/west of the Missouri River along with southern portions of south central North Dakota, with notably high NBM probabilities of over 3 inches over much of this area. Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting Friday morning over much of the southwest, mid-day for remaining portions. Advisory will then run through the night until snow departs. For the aforementioned area, expect mainly 3 to 5 inches as NBM probabilities for 6 inches are 50 percent or less and not for a widespread area, but did make mention of the possibility of higher amounts if the mid- level forcing were to set up a heavier band.

Behind this system cold high pressure settles over the area, with the coldest air settling in Saturday night through Sunday night. Overnight lows at or below zero are expected with highs around 10 above for Sunday, about 20 to 25 degrees below average. Temperatures rebound some going into next week, but overall we remain generally below average. A variety of weak disturbances pass through the flow Tuesday onward, bringing low to medium snow chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Broad areas of IFR ceilings with patchy IFR visibility in fog continue to linger over parts of western and far north central North Dakota, and will continue to do so through the afternoon. Tonight, areas of fog re-develp, but still some question as to how low visibility may drop at any one place. Still, expect high chances to see many areas of IFR to LIFR visibility. Friday morning, snow develops from southwest to northeast, with deteriorating visibility.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Friday to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ031>033-040>045.