textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures today in the upper 60s to upper 70s with a few site likely hitting 80s in the southwest and south central.

- Near critical wildland fire conditions today over far southwest North Dakota.

- Dry and seasonably mild conditions through much of the upcoming week, with unsettled weather returning late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

An upper level ridging axis continues across the Plains this afternoon resulting in warm temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s with a few spots likely hitting the lower 80s in the southwest and south central. Dry conditions across the southwest and breezy winds around 15 mph have resulted in near critical fire weather conditions. A weak front is forecast to move the the state this evening and tonight bringing a northwest wind shift. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down around the mid to upper 40s tonight.

An upper level low is forecast to pass across far northern Manitoba bringing forth the aforementioned front tonight. This upper level low will flatten the upper level ridge with the front bringing in a slightly cooler airmass across into the region. Temperatures will dip down around the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday afternoon, which is still above normal for this time of year. Upper level ridging will build back over the Plains as an upper level low stalls out off the coast of California amplifying the ridge early next week. This pattern will persist through much of next week. Which will lead to dry conditions and above normal temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to lower 70s through next week.

By the end of the week, the ENS and GEFS ensembles very on solutions, but move the upper low off the coast of California through the Central Plains. It is to early to tell who will be getting the precipitation next weekend when the pattern switches to more active.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions continue across the region. A cold front will move through the region tonight shifting winds out of the northwest. There will be intermittent wind gust this afternoon and evening and LLWS across the northern terminals tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.