textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds over western and central North Dakota into this evening, with gusts up to 70 mph over most locations. Gusts to 80 possible southwest, with a few spots possibly a bit higher if rain showers are passing over.

- Critical fire weather conditions for portions of western North Dakota through early this evening.

- Periods of snow continue mainly around the Turtle Mountains into this evening, which combined with the wind could significantly reduce visibility. - Snow again develops over much of the area Saturday into early Sunday. Greatest chances for impacts due to snow remain along and south of Interstate 94.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Current surface analysis places center of deep low between Minot and Harvey. Tight pressure gradient with this low is resulting in some very strong winds, particularly behind the surface trough which is nearing the Highway 83 corridor. Strongest winds with gusts in the 80s have occurred along this trough over southwest North Dakota, with gusts to 70 elsewhere behind the trough. Winds continue to be enhanced by scattered showers over the area, with enough instability in place for thunderstorm development, most notably in the vicinity of the aforementioned trough. One has developed near and north of Bismarck, of which a severe warning has been issued. Temperatures have warmed up southwest into west central North Dakota well into the 40s and lower 50s, while behind the cold front to the west of the low, temperatures remain in the 30s.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight surface low will continue setting to the east-southeast, with strong winds continuing into this evening before tapering off. Per latest forecast soundings, greatest threat for 80 mph winds remains over southwest North Dakota, notably with a secondary surge of pressure rises with the cold front dropping down. Gusts to 70 remain the key threat elsewhere that High Wind Warnings are in effect. With that said, still expect winds to drop off through the evening from west to east as pressure rises quickly diminish with the fast moving system. With respect to thunderstorms, enough instability remains in place for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Given the strong winds right off the surface, any storm (or shower for that matter) will have to be closely monitored for enhanced wind gusts given the ease of the strong winds mixing down.

As for snow, expect periods of snow to continue over north central North Dakota, with some additional light snow possibly wrapping in behind the low as it moves on its way. With respect to north central North Dakota, particularly around the Turtle Mountains where Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect, will have to keep a close eye on blowing snow and visibility once winds start to really increase over that area. For now have kept advisory in place with mention of possible near-blizzard, but if snow starts moving more than anticipated this evening, blizzard headlines will need consideration.

As we go into Friday this system will continue on its way out of the area, but additional low to medium snow chances develop mainly over western and southern locations behind surface high that drops through eastern portions of the state. These chances linger ahead of the next system approaching Saturday.

On Saturday an upper trough approaches and pushes through the region and a surface low slides through the central plains. Impactful weather remains a concern, particularly along and south of Interstate 94. NBM guidance has been quite consistent with this, continuing to show a 50 to 75 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow for this area, and a 40 to 60 percent chance of 6 inches or more. High pressure to the north limits the northern extent of the snow, with northern parts of our area possibly seeing little to no snowfall. Snow departs on Sunday, with quite cold temperatures expected.

Notable warming trend is then on tap going through the work week, with some low to medium chances for precipitation Monday into Tuesday with the warmer air pushing in. Although NBM guidance continues to show a spread in high temperatures for a few of the days, the trend is sharply warmer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A clipper system will continue to push into the area today. Snow will continue through this afternoon into early this evening over parts of north central North Dakota, with a continued changeover from snow to rain elsewhere. The snowfall could bring periods of IFR visibility. Southerly winds will shift west to northwest. Gusts to 50-60 kts will be possible over most locations, with gusts to 70 kts possible over southwest North Dakota. Conditions slowly improve tonight as winds subside slowly from west to east and precipitation ends.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 907 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A strong low pressure system moving through the region today will bring very strong winds. The winds will shift from southerly to west-northwesterly and increase through the day. Gusts up to 70 mph are expected north of Interstate 94, and up to 80 mph south of Interstate 94. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be at or above 40 percent north and east of the Missouri River, but will drop during the afternoon south and west of the river to as low as 20 percent mid to late this afternoon. Thus, critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of western North Dakota today, when there will be a 3-4 hour period of low relative humidity combining with the very strong winds. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas from mid-day through early this evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ004-005- 013. High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ012-022-023-025- 036-037-047-048-050-051. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.