textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather conditions continue today through much of the upcoming week, with above normal temperatures also expected.

- A breezy southerly wind is expected today, becoming a breezy northwest wind on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 922 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Minor tweaks to sky cover were the only changes with the morning update.

UPDATE Issued at 537 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Little needing updating at this time. Mainly updated the Aviation Discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A stalled front will act as a warm front today across the state as a surface low lifts across central Canada. On the warm side of this front will be highs in the 60s, with some breezy southerly winds. Along and north of this front will be cooler yet still above normal highs in the 50s, with not as breezy of winds. Some southwestern areas could see increased fire weather concerns this afternoon, although at this time critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Abundant dry air will keep conditions dry, with some mid to high clouds at times. A weak and dry cold front then moves through tonight, which could bring some increased cloud cover. This increased cloud cover will also bring more mild lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Depending on location, these would approach record warm minimum records for this time of year. A breezy and dry post frontal day is then expected for Monday. This weak cold front will only cool temperatures slightly and bring highs still in the 50s. Afternoon humidity values should remain above 30 percent for most areas, although some southwestern areas may see some increased fire weather concerns. Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains low at this time. Surface high then lessens winds Monday night and brings cooler lowers in the 20s and 30s. A passing wave to our north will push another weak cold front south on Tuesday. This combined with a broad troughing pattern may bring a few isolated rain showers. More breezy westerly winds are possible, mainly in the southwest. Slightly cooler temperatures will be found as a result of this additional cold front with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another surface high then moves in for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lingering lows in the 20s and 30s. There could be some trapped low level moisture associated with this surface high and behind Tuesday's front. Perhaps this brings some increased low clouds or even patchy fog, however, confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time.

Wednesday through next weekend will likely be under the influence of an amplified ridge moving into the central US. Some larger temperature spreads remain for later in the work week as this ridge forms. However once the ridge builds over the central US there is increased confidence in above normal temperatures for the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will also follow this ridge through the upcoming weekend. Although some lower RH may be found with these warmer temperatures, a lack of wind should limit fire weather concerns through the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, with some mid to high clouds at times. Light winds will become southerly today, then switch to the west this evening through tonight. Some low level wind shear is possible across the north and east this evening during the initial shift from southerly to westerly winds. This low level wind shear is currently in the KMOT and KJMS TAF.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.