textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and breezy conditions, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the north, expected today.

- Near critical fire weather conditions could be found today along, south, and west of the Missouri River especially far southwestern North Dakota.

- Mainly dry conditions then expected through mid-week, with low to medium precipitation chances returning late Thursday through the end of the week into early next week.

- Look for near to slightly above normal temperatures through this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Some patchy fog is trying to develop in far southeastern ND, with limited impacts expected this morning. Meanwhile, lower clouds are starting to move in across the north. These clouds could linger across the north through much of today, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. Made some minor changes to the forecast based on these latest trends, although overall the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A clipper like system will push through the state today. This will cool temperatures to near normal with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Cloud cover in southern Canada will push into the northern half of North Dakota today. This could bring a few showers as well to these areas. Weak instability may also provide for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, although the threat for severe weather is low. Increased northwest winds will also be found as this clipper system moves through. It appears the winds will fall just short of advisory criteria, although gusts near 40 mph are possible this afternoon. There still could be some near critical fire weather conditions across areas along, west, and south of the Missouri River and especially the far southwest. These areas will see afternoon RH values near 30 percent with winds sustained at around 20 mph. The stronger winds today are expected more in the north and east, and RH values should be improved today with the lower temperatures. Cloud cover will also be an area of uncertainty for near critical fire weather conditions. Thus will just message the limited near critical fire weather conditions in the AFD and the FWF for now. This system looks to push eastward tonight, bringing clearing skies and lessening winds to the area. Look for lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s as a result. Depending on timing of clearing skies and light winds, perhaps some patchy fog is possible tonight into Wednesday morning, although dry air at the surface may limit this potential.

Surface high on Wednesday, followed by a ridge aloft on Thursday, will bring generally dry conditions for the mid week period. Look for high temperatures to generally remain near normal in the mid 70s to mid 80s, although Thursday could see a slight warming trend in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Afternoon RH values will lower into the 20s and 30s each day, although winds should generally be light except for some increased southerly winds across the west on Thursday. The mentioned ridge could then break down sometime Thursday night or Friday. The resultant southwest flow could bring slightly warmer temperatures and perhaps some more active weather. Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to return each day Friday through the weekend. CSU-MLP also showing at least an isolated severe weather threat possible each day through the weekend as well. Breezy winds may be found on Friday and again on Sunday. The breezier winds do not line up with the lowest RH on Friday, which should help limit the fire weather concerns. Sunday could see these breezier winds line up with some lower RH in the west, which may be worth monitoring for at least some increased fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Overall VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with some periods of MVFR conditions. Some lower VFR to MVFR ceilings will move across the north today, while mainly VFR conditions are found elsewhere. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in the north today as well. Ceilings will return to VFR conditions tonight along with mainly dry conditions. Breezy northwest winds will also be found through the day, diminishing this evening.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.