textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight with the main hazards being hail to 1 inch diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms to be found Wednesday and Thursday. The threat for severe weather is low.

- Strong northwest winds are expected in southwestern and south central North Dakota on Wednesday.

- Near normal temperatures to be found today. Temperatures below normal Wednesday and Thursday, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed across much of the northwest and the north central. The strongest storms will continue to be in the north central where possibly 1000 J/kg of CAPE is available with 50kts of shear. The Minot AFB recorded a gust of 58mph, but that storm has weakened since. The other storm in western Ward County still remains warned for possible severe hail, we have not gotten any reports yet of the hail. Any storm south of Highway 200 should stay sub-severe with the lack of CAPE.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Cyclonic flow is found over the northern Plains as an upper level low retrogrades over northern Manitoba. A shortwave traversing this cyclonic flow is progged to move across North Dakota, lofting a low pressure system and associated warm front across western North Dakota later today through this evening. Enhanced along and ahead of the passage of this front will promote increased cloud cover and an initial round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon today, though a very dry conditions below 850mb will help limit the amount of precpitation that reaches the ground. Breezy conditions are expected across the southwest this afternoon as the surface gradient tightens ahead of this low, with winds turning west northwesterly from 20 to 25 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH. Otherwise, highs this afternoon are forecast from the lower to mid 70s central to the upper 70s to mid 80s west.

Later this afternoon into this evening, a more robust shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains, picking up the cold front and pushing it slowly southward across North Dakota as a weak cold front. With the passage of this front, along with the development of a 45 to 50 knot mid level jet across much of the west and south central, greater shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected across the forecast area this evening through early tonight. Instability during this period is expected to peak into the 750-1250 J/KG across portions of the west, mostly elevated above 800 mb, while strong bulk shear values increase to around 55 to 55 knots. Considering this, and a few isolated to strong severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening. The primary hazard associated with any severe thunderstorm is expected to be strong winds, as dry near surface conditions are high low level lapse rates will allow some of the strongest winds aloft to mix down to the surface along with the precpitation. With much of the instability expected to be fairly elevated, and with moisture saturation through this unstable layer expected to be somewhat limited, mostly small hail can be anticipated. That being said, the environment for hail production is slightly better in the far northwest, so it wouldn't be overly surprising to see hail approach 1.0" here. Thus, we will advertise wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to quarters in size for today. There is a brief period in the mid evening when increasingly curved hodographs in northwestern and portions of north central North Dakota is expected to induce 0-1km SRH values around 100-125 m2/s2, which may introduce some very low tornado concerns. We will not advertise tornado potential with this forecast package, though will continue to monitor model trends through this period. Otherwise for tonight, forecast lows are in the 40s to lower 50s.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of western and central North Dakota on Wednesday, before diminishing overnight into Thursday. The chance of severe weather is very low due to the cooler temperatures expected across the area. Strong winds are expected to develop across portions of the southwest and southcentral as the surface gradient continues to tighten across the west, and as CAA increases along and behind the aforementioned cold front. Northwest winds from 25 to 35 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH is generally expected in an area south of I-94 and west of the Missouri River. The southward displacement of the mid level jet further south of the area by the mid to late morning is expected to limit our potential for even stronger winds. A Wind Advisory has been issued for portions of southwestern and south central North Dakota from 12Z through 0Z Wednesday morning and afternoon. Otherwise, with prevailing cloud cover and showers expected through much of the day Wednesday, cooler highs in the 60s to lower 70s are forecast for Wednesday.

Persistant cyclonic flow over the northern Plains will allow for at least low chances for showers and some thunderstorms over portions of the forecast area on Thursday, and again across central North Dakota on Friday as weak shortwave pass across the region. With highs lingering mainly in the 60s to mid 70s both day, with with no stronger wave currently anticipated, the chance for severe weather remains low at this time. Looking ahead to the weekend, clusters remain split between a favored wet scenario and a dry scenario. In the wet scenario (55 percent membership), near zonal flow is progged to develop over the northern Plains as developing western CONUS ridge is flattened by the retrograding Canadian Low diving south. With this pattern, near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms can be anticipated as shortwaves cut across the region. A comparably dry cluster (45 percent) also exists, which favors a more robust ridge becoming established over the region Saturday and Sunday, which will help limit precipitation chances to mainly across eastern North Dakota. Looking further ahead, there is modest agreement in southwesterly flow developing over the region as a Pacific Low dives across southwestern Canada into the northern Great Plains late Sunday into next week. If this pattern shift pans out, more widespread precpitation can be anticipated across western and central North Dakota.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR with showers and thunderstorms this evening and early tonight, then MVFR CIGs move in later tonight. Thunderstorms this evening will create erratic and gusty winds, possibly to 50kts. Most of western and central ND should fill in with showers overnight, lasting through the morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ040>044-061-062.