textproduct: Bismarck
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Mainly dry conditions through Thursday evening.
- Low to medium shower/thunderstorm chances return Friday, and continue through the weekend into early in the work week.
- Near to slightly above average temperatures continue through the week into early next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 931 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Quiet weather continues across the region as northwesterly flow persists. Winds have died down as diurnal heating has diminished. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
No updates needed at this time as quiet weather continues across the region.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Current surface analysis places trough/front dropping through Minnesota, with high over the Alberta/Saskatchewan border stretching into Montana. Upper level analysis places compact low over the southern Manitoba/Ontario border, with high over New Mexico and ridge stretching north into the Northern Rockies. Over our area, gusty northwesterly winds continue between the aforementioned surface systems, while scattered to numerous clouds pass through cyclonic flow aloft behind the upper low.
For this evening, a quiet night is on tap as upper low pushes off to the east and surface high starts to settle in.
On Wednesday, quiet weather continues with upper ridge slowly meandering a bit to the east and surface high passing over, resulting in a pleasant day. Thursday will see milder temperatures as ridge continues to push east.
Chances for precipitation start to enter the forecast Friday as ridge continues to meander east and a surface low develops to the lee of the Rockies, bringing increasing south-southeasterly winds and increased moisture to the area. Latest model guidance suggest that severe weather may be a possibility given strong deep layer shear and increased instability, which is also backed by NSSL & CSU machine learning guidance.
Low to medium chances for showers/storms continue through the weekend into the start of the upcoming week as we remain in a generally westerly to west-southwesterly upper flow pattern with a variety of disturbances moving through.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will remain out of the northwest with wind gusts dying out around sunset. Winds could pick up in the southeast tomorrow afternoon.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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