textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will continue over much of western and central North Dakota, before ending later this morning and afternoon. Little to no additional accumulations are expected.

- Well below average temperatures are favored this weekend into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 25 below zero will be possible both tonight and Sunday night.

- An active northwest flow is forecast for next week, with periodic chances for snow and fluctuations in daily temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 943 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Based on radar, surface obs and numerous webcams, have cancelled the winter weather advisory for all of our counties. Widespread light snow continues across mainly southeast ND, which will continue to diminish and move southward. Another smaller area of slightly enhanced radar returns over north central ND supported by a shortwave trough moving through that region was progressing eastward. Surface obs showing most visibility in the 3-5SM range. Updated forecast to increase pops across this region. Otherwise, no change in forecast with light snow ending everywhere this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 611 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Light snow continues most areas, as the main upper level trough approaches the region, with the more defined radar returns over south central and southeastern North Dakota. Embedded impulses within the flow also contributing to continued snow in eastern MT, along with another area of low stratus moving towards my west. Edits to the forecast were minor.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Currently, upper level S/WV trough developing east into the Dakotas early this morning, with its associated 700mb low pushing south into north central/northeastern South Dakota. Light snow continues across most of western and central ND, with the more moderate to heavier snow now mainly to our south now as forcing aloft associated with an upper jet streak moves east, enhanced forcing with the mid level low farther south, and decreasing isentropic upglide. However, will see continued forcing for ascent ahead of the 500mb S/WV across the local area for most of this morning, with the potential of another 1-2 inches of snow yet before things wind down later today. Thus, opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory to 18Z (noon CST) with this product issuance.

Mid level wave continues southeast today, with northwest flow in its wake and cold surface high pressure building into the western Dakotas late afternoon. This surface high only slowly builds east-southeast into tonight, lingering across the Dakotas through Sunday before exiting to the southeast Sun night. While cloud cover will be tricky to forecast, the general trend is expected to be decreasing cloud cover today-tonight-through Sunday, setting the stage for some cold nights tonight and Sun night thanks to our recent snowfall. Widespread subzero lows are forecast for the next couple of nights, along with min wind chills nearing 25 below zero some locations.

We remain in a northwest flow regime through next week, with embedded waves periodically moving through aloft. One of these waves and an associated cold front is favored to impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing milder temperatures on Tuesday, snow chances Tuesday night, and another cold period on Wednesday. While NBM hasn't caught on yet, would anticipate some breezy winds with the cold FROPA as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions in snow expected to continue this morning across most of western and central ND, with visibility generally in the 1-5SM range in snow. Snow will gradually end from west to east today, ending in western ND by 15Z, and in central ND by 21Z. In the wake of the snow, MVFR ceilings are expected to persist today and tonight at most terminals. Winds will be northerly this morning, then more northwesterly today and tonight, peaking at about 10-15 knots during the day today.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.