textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Long duration of bitterly cold temperatures with dangerous to life-threatening wind chills through the weekend.

- Expect low temperatures around 20 to 30 below zero and wind chills as low as 50 below zero tonight and Saturday night.

- Temperatures favored to warm next week, but could still remain below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 123 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Based on earlier observations, added an isolated flurries mention to the James River Valley coinciding with the passages of a mid level shortwave. Otherwise, the forecast for tonight remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 929 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Only changes to the late evening update was to adjust sky cover based on latest satellite imagery. Also bumped up sky cover more Saturday afternoon/evening as a shortwave trough drops south and interacts with an inverted trough over western ND. Will let the overnight shift visit pops/qpf as most guidance Friday showed little in the way of snow/qpf. Day shift did add some flurries. Think the flurries may need to be expanded, or perhaps switched to light accumulating snow of current trends continue.

UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

No significant changes for the early evening update. A band of mid to high level clouds is currently traversing the forecast area as Arctic high pressure also slides southeast across the forecast area. Current temperatures are generally 10 to 20 below zero with wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero, except 10 to 20 below southwest. No changes to the current ongoing headlines. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening wind chills dominate the short term forecast.

This afternoon, broad Arctic high pressure extended across the Northern Plains, with the center axis from northwest Montana through southern Minnesota. A deep Hudson Bay low was leading to cyclonic flow over the region, downstream of ridging building off the western CONUS coast. This extremely cold air mass is producing highs this afternoon mainly in the teens below zero across the forecast area, although there is sunshine and light winds from the influence of the surface high. The current Extreme Cold Warning (north and central) and Cold Weather Advisory (south and west of the Missouri River) remain in effect through Sunday morning. In the warning area, expect wind chills of 40 to 50 below zero, and in the advisory area, 30 to 40 below zero.

Tonight, the surface high begins to slide off to our southeast, with quiet and very cold weather forecast. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer than last night, generally from 15 to 25 below, although approaching 30 below in the northwest.

A brief push of shallow low-level warm air advection will slightly warm temperatures on Saturday, with daytime highs reaching above zero for the southwest and south central. This reprieve is brief, however, as another surge of cold air comes through Saturday night into Sunday with an upper wave. We did add in a mention of flurries Saturday night across parts of western and southern North Dakota. LREF probabilities are medium to high for measurable snow, especially across southwest North Dakota, although the NBM hasn't quite caught on just yet. Forecast soundings do want to introduce some light snow, but with overall very dry soundings, so would not expect much in terms of any accumulations besides a dusting. Highs on Sunday are expected to widely be below zero again, although mainly in the single digits below, with the exception of the far north central.

NBM temperature percentiles show a significant jump on Monday, indicating high confidence in warmer temperatures to start the work week. Relatively small spread between the 25th/75th percentiles puts forecast highs in the teens north to mid to upper 20s southwest, although breezy northwest winds with a passing system and associated weak cold front will keep apparent temperatures lower.

Ensemble cluster analysis agrees well on the overall synoptic pattern being dominated by western CONUS ridging and deep troughing to our east, keeping us under cyclonic flow aloft. Where forecast questions emerge is on what side of the baroclinic zone we end up on, with a relatively large spread of potential temperatures, although the expectation for most of next week is for below average temperatures to continue. As is typical with northwest flow, we tend to get weak shortwaves moving through the region which can bring reinforcing shots of cold air and chances for light snow. However, forecast through next work week is overall dry at this time, with blended guidance unable to resolve any of these shallow features at this time frame. There are some hints in the week two period that the start of February will bring a return to near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 123 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 06Z TAF period. VFR conditions should persist through the night and Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon and evening there looks to be a decent shot of light snow/flurries as an impulse drops south from Canada and tracks south across western ND. Latest deterministic global guidance is producing some light qpf over southwest ND. Some of the 00Z cams are also now depicting some light qpf over southwest ND. Previous shift added flurries southwest and far south central. Think this may be a little more robust as most BUFkit soundings show a period of light snow at most locations. Also GEFS plumes also show light qpf at all Major stations Saturday afternoon/evening. Winds remain light through the TAF period, mostly southwest to south early on, then shifting northerly late in the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for NDZ001>005- 009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.