textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over central into eastern North Dakota this afternoon and early evening.

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the remainder of the week.

- Highs in the 70s and 80s through the workweek, warming into the 80s and lower 90s for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Surface high pressure in the Great Lakes region and into the upper Midwest will move southeast today, while the upper level slow over southern Saskatchewan begins to move ever so slowly east towards Manitoba this morning, but picks up speed this afternoon. Although moisture transport into the local areas begins to break down today, we still have abundant residual moisture over the James River Valley and into eastern North Dakota. As the Saskatchewan upper low tracks east today we see a 70 kt jet pushing through ND as it rotates through the base of the upper low, providing forcing for ascent this afternoon over central and eastern North Dakota. Current SPC slight risk area includes the James River Valley, with much of central ND along and east of the Highway 83 corridor in the marginal risk. Some guidance suggests that convection may develop/move into southwest/south central ND late morning or early this afternoon and tracking northeast. Other guidance suggests this early convection remains limited and holds off on developing stronger convection until late this afternoon, mainly over the James River Valley and points east. Either way, with sufficient bulk shear situated over central ND, there will be the potential for at least isolated severe storms, possibly late morning, but right now the thinking is mainly this afternoon into early this evening, before exiting the James River Valley. The main threats look to be golfball sized hail and 60 mph winds within the slight risk area that includes the James River Valley. Most of central ND will have a slightly lower hail threat (ping pong ball sized hail) and 60 mph winds. There also remains an isolated tornado threat. This looks to be mainly the far southern James River Valley for a brief period late this afternoon. Guidance is fairly similar in bringing convection to an end over the CWA by around 02 UTC, if not earlier. Current ongoing convection, and additional morning convection, the potential for low fog and stratus this morning, and the eventual position of the frontal boundary this afternoon could also provide limiting factors for convection today, especially outside of the James River Valley, where instability will not be as strong. The threat for locally heavy rain remains, especially over the James River Valley, but as the upper level impulse wraps around the upper low, we will see more of an easterly progression in the thunderstorm activity this afternoon, rather than training cells when the upper low was nearly stationary.

We see a bit of a dry period Wednesday night and Thursday morning as drier air and brief upper level ridging propagate across the forecast area in the wake of the exiting upper low. We then see another chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a shortwave eminating from the eastern Pacific moves into the area. There is currently a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over portions of the far southwest Thursday. Confidence in the severe threat on Thursday is low at this time, with more favorable instability setting to our south. Some of the Cams that go out that far do show convection brushing the far southwest, while others do not. Will wait for another model run to ramp up any messaging for severe storms on Thursday in the far southwest.

As we head towards the weekend, it doesn't look to be completely dry, but for the most part Friday and Saturday will see more sun than clouds and the threat for severe weather currently looks to be on the low side. There is a signal for a severe weather threat Saturday night as another Pacific system moves across the northern Rockies and into southern Canada. SPC has highlighted a portion of western ND in their Day 4 outlook. We'll see how this plays out as we get closer to the weekend.

In general, temperatures remain near normal values through Friday, then warm as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms extending from southwest to northeast ND to begin the 06Z TAF period. Included a VCTS at KDIK early in the TAF period, otherwise No Thunder at any other TAF site to begin the period. KXWA could see some shower activity overnight but will be the most likely TAF site to remain free of Thunder through the TAF period. Otherwise KDIK initially, but moreso, KMOT, KBIS and especially KJMS will have the potential for thunderstorms with KJMS having the highest potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and early evening. Any thunderstorm activity will have the potential for MVFR-IFR Visibilities in heavy downpours, and gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise there is the potential for some MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning, mainly southwest and central portions of the state, before lifting to VFR Wednesday afternoon. Generally light southerly surface flow will turn westerly from west to east through the day.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.