textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures continue today and Saturday over most locations. Some records may again be tied or set.

- Low to medium precipitation chances Saturday/Saturday night as cold front passes through.

- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week behind the cold front, then warming trend into mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Patchy fog can be found over portions of northwest and north central North Dakota at the time of this mid morning update. While fog has begun to erode with the sunrise, it may linger a while longer in shallow areas over the next few hours, before lifting as winds begin to pick up. With this update, have extended mentions of fog through the mid to late morning. Otherwise, generally clear and calm conditions are found across the forecast area. The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Going forecast is in good shape with a few patches of fog around the area as indicated in latest observations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Current surface analysis places low over Lake Superior and high over the Rockies. Upper level analysis places high over the desert southwest, with broad ridge over the western into the central CONUS. Over our area, temperatures have remained quite mild overnight with lows mainly in the 30s, and a few patches of fog showing up over various locations.

Upper ridge over the region will continue to bring very warm to record temperatures to the area today, with highs running around 20 to 30 degrees above average. Again, the exception will be parts of far north central North Dakota where snow cover will keep temperatures a bit cooler.

Saturday will be the day of transition as a Pacific trough pushes through the top of the ridge and a cold front starts to push into the region. Southern parts of the area are expected to be quite warm given the timing of the front, with highs still pushing into the 70s over many locations. Further north, particularly over north central North Dakota, some question still exists on temperatures given the frontal timing, as Rugby continues to show a 13 degree difference between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles (39 vs. 52). Low precipitation chances start to push into northern areas in the afternoon, with low to medium chances spreading through the area overnight, starting as rain transitioning towards snow chances as the cooler air pushes in.

Notably cooler temperatures for Sunday with temperatures starting to rebound on Monday. Low precipitation chances return for mid-week, while notably warmer temperatures are possible for Wednesday. With that said, a 15 to 20 degree spread still remains in the NBM 25th to 75th percentile for high temperatures throughout our area. Cooler temperatures then expected to close out the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 900 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Localized fog possible over much of western and central North Dakota into the James River Valley this morning may lead to brief periods of reduced visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Later tonight, low level wind shear becomes a concern over many parts of the area.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.