textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow is expected along and north of Interstate 94 Tuesday night through Wednesday, with a low chance south of the interstate.

- Areas in a Winter Storm Watch could see snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

- There is a threat of freezing rain across northern and eastern portions of North Dakota Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the transition to snow. Light ice accumulations are possible.

- Strong east-southeast winds Tuesday turning to the northwest Wednesday could produce areas of blowing snow.

- Well above average temperatures through Tuesday, then a rapid switch to below average for the second half of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

No major adjustments to the forecast were performed with this update, as it remains broadly on track. Areas of fog, occasionally dense, linger over portions of central North Dakota into the James River Valley at the time of this update. Mid level clouds are starting to over run this fog, however, so we may see it soon start to diminish through the early morning. Will continue to monitor visibility trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Area of low clouds and fog have started to develop over the past hour or so across parts of the James River Valley, originating in western Lamoure and now expanding to the north/northwest. Call from the LaMoure EM indicated some very low visibility with fog accompanying the stratus, so will throw out a Special Weather Statement for now and see how this trends over the next couple of hours. No other big changes to the forecast outside of updating hourly trends this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Sky cover was modified based on latest satellite imagery and trends, along with other forecast hourly weather elements blended to latest observations. Overall, changes were minimal with this product issuance.

S/WV upper level ridge will move across the Northern Plains tonight, with increasing east/southeasterly flow into the region. This occurs as our future storm system develops east across central/southern California early this evening, before rapidly ejecting northeast into the Rockies overnight and eventually into our region Tuesday/Tues night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Brief ridging aloft will bring clearing skies to most areas this evening into the early overnight hours. Mild temperatures today will allow for mild low temperatures in the 20s and 30s tonight. Breezy southeast flow will begin to return later tonight as a surface low takes shape in Montana. This southeast flow could also return some lower clouds to the area. Soundings showing wind should limit fog development for tonight, although cannot rule some mist or perhaps even some drizzle for freezing drizzle. Something to monitor, yet not high enough confidence to place in the forecast for tonight.

The potential for an impactful winter storm remains for Tuesday through Wednesday as the surface low and negatively tilted upper level trough moves across the area. During the day Tuesday, increasing low level moisture will provide abundant cloud cover. Under this cloud deck could be widespread drizzle and freezing drizzle Tuesday morning depending on temperatures. Tuesday afternoon sees more widespread showers develop across the state. Currently these are expected to be mainly rain showers. However, there are some hints cooler than forecast temperatures may bring more freezing rain north and perhaps across some eastern portions. This is indicated in the FRAM guidance, although other guidance is warmer and more in line with the current NBM forecast with highs forecast in the 30s north to 40s and some 50s south. As a result started to increase messaging on this freezing rain potential Tuesday into Tuesday night, although current forecast targets areas in the Winter Storm Watch with a brief chance of accumulating ice. One other note about Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening is the chance for thunderstorms if the warmer solution prevails. In this scenario CAPE values over 500 J/KG combined with strong shear could produce a few elevated thunderstorms. SPC has added in general risk for thunder across southeastern ND as a result, although given the time of year and the elevated nature of the potential storms the threat for severe weather is low. Tuesday could also see strong easterly winds across much of the area. Mixing may be tough to come by with the warm air advection aloft. However, some areas could see at least advisory level winds Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rain and freezing rain transitions to all snow Tuesday night, then could continue through Wednesday. Strong easterly winds will become a strong northwesterly wind, with perhaps the strongest winds in the southwest as indicated by the ECMWF EFI values. These winds combined with snow could bring areas of blowing snow. How impactful this blowing snow becomes remains uncertain as it still appears the strongest winds are away from the higher amounts of snow. Snow amounts have remained steady in the Winter Storm Watch area, with the chances for 6 or more inches of snow higher than 50 percent for most areas. Other than the Turtle Mountain area, the chances for over 8 inches of snow in the Winter Storm Watch area are low and generally less than 30%. Given this consistently have decided to place a range of 4 to 8 inches in our messaging for the Winter Storm Watch. The remainder of the area looks to be around 1 to 4 inches, with the lower accumulations coming south of Interstate 94. Low track and the amount of freezing rain could still impact these snow amounts. Thus held off on any changes to the winter highlights at this time. High temperatures Wednesday will be drastically cooler than recent days and in the 20s and 30s for most areas. This initial round of snow then diminishes Wednesday night, other than some lingering slight chances. Breezy winds could also remain, bringing some patchy blowing snow to areas with fresh snowfall. Lows could dip below zero in the northwest to the teens southeast.

Broad trough pattern looks to continue Thursday into the upcoming weekend. This will continue cooler temperatures and perhaps some breezy winds at times. Chances for snow will also continue near daily as this trough pattern remains. Currently the signal for heavy snow is low, however, the NBM does have 10 to near 30% chance of at least 2 inches later in the week, especially across southern portions. Highs each day are forecast in the teens and 20s, while lows could get below zero. This is supported by limited temperature spreads in the NBM. Perhaps some dangerous wind chills are possible with any colder temperatures and lingering breezy winds.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions to start the 06Z period, with increasing clouds all terminals. As the clouds increase, MVFR to perhaps some IFR ceilings eventually develop across much of the area this morning. Patchy fog, mist, and/or drizzle/freezing drizzle also possible from these lower clouds, though confidence is not high enough to include this in the individual TAFs at this time. Conditions continue to deteriorate Tuesday evening as rain changes over to snow roughly from north to south, which continues through Tuesday night. Increasing southeasterly wind also expected tonight and into the day Tuesday. Some low level wind shear is forecast later tonight through roughly 15-16Z Tuesday morning. Winds will start turning to the west/northwest at western terminals Tuesday evening, and will quickly increase at both KXWA and KDIK.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for NDZ001>005-009>013.