textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and windy this weekend, along with a few rain showers.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions south and west of the Missouri River this afternoon and especially Sunday afternoon.

- Near to above normal temperatures with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Surface low pressure will track from central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba this afternoon and into Ontario by late this evening. A surface trough extending south from the surface low will move from western into central ND this afternoon and into eastern ND this evening. Southwest winds ahead of the trough will shift a little more westerly with the passage of the trough. With daytime heating, the stronger winds aloft will be mixed downward towards the surface. General warm advection is helping to limit the downward momentum. Still a little worried across the northwest and north central later this afternoon as cold advection drops south from Canada with a steep lapse rate and strong winds up to 70H. Fortunately, the Mixing layer remains low here this afternoon into this evening. It's not until you get farther south, into the west central and southwest where the mixing layer may rise enough to allow the strong winds to mix to the surface. This is depicted in the mesoscale RAP/HRRR for a short timeframe, and also the GFS, but to a lesser extent. Will continue with the windy wording today but hold off for now on an Advisory. Currently, reflectivities remain very light across the northwest and north central. but as the surface low tracks east, low precipitation chances slide across the north central and into eastern ND. Could see a brief shower with little if any qpf expected today.

Another clipper tracks through southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Sunday, dragging a cold front southeast through the forecast area late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Ahead of this cold front we remain mild tonight with lows mostly in the 30s. Then mild to unseasonably warm on Sunday. We deviated a little from our given guidance for Sunday using a combination of our previous forecast and the latest NBM guidance. This placed the forecast area within the 25 to 75 quartile range of the NBM ensemble guidance and above the NBM deterministic forecast. Sunday will be another breezy to windy day, with the potential for stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface over western ND from around mid morning, through the afternoon. The strong gradient winds don't arrive until late afternoon in the northwest, then Sunday evening across the rest of the forecast area as a strong cold front drops south across the area. We issued a Wind Advisory for western and portions of the far south central (Grant and Sioux counties) from mid morning through early evening, mainly due to the mix-down potential with very warm temperatures and a steep lapse rate. As the cold front drops south late afternoon and through the evening, there will be another surge of stronger winds with a quick push of strong cold advection directly behind the cold front, combined with strong isallobaric winds. It remains to be seen if a wind advisory will be needed with the frontal passage. The pressure bubble is not as strong as it was yesterday. Also, the HREF indicates winds dropping off pretty quickly behind the cold front. The HREF probability of gusts over 40 mph shows this quite well with probabilities over 60 percent across western ND in the late morning and through the afternoon (Wind Advisory in effect). As you go through the late afternoon and into the early afternoon, the probabilities drops quickly fading to 10-30 percent as the cold front pushes south. It's possible we still may need something, but at this time confidence is too low for an advisory along/behind the cold front. There will a chance (20 to 40 percent) for rain/snow showers behind the cold front late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, with little if any significant accumulations.

With the uncertainty in the winds and temperatures, we will continue to advertise near critical fire weather conditions but will hold off on a Red Flag Warning. Should we overperform on temperatures or underperform with humidities, we still may need a Red Flag Warning, but later shifts will still have time to monitor.

On Monday and Monday night we see an upper level trough dig over the northern Plains. This will bring the potential for some light accumulating snows over the forecast area. At this time there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for accumulating snow will be, but it looks to be orientated mainly west to east and more over central into southern North Dakota, rather than the north. The NBM4.3 24 hour probability for an inch or more of snow ending 12Z Tuesday shows probabilities around 40 to 60 percent along and just north of I-94 from Dickinson to Jamestown. The NBM 5.0 experimental version shows two distinct east to west bands of 40 to 70 percent probabilities, one along the Highway 200 corridor, and another along and south of the I-94 corridor. We'll see how this evolves as we get closer. Otherwise temperatures remain near to above normal through the work week with a couple more chances for rain or snow with a progressive upper level flow across the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Generally a westerly flow through the forecast period, windy today, diminishing a little overnight, but with strong winds aloft. Therefore LLWS was included at all TAF sites tonight. Winds then pick up again mid to late morning Sunday. Mainly high level clouds today but more extensive mid level clouds expected on Sunday, but well above MVFR is forecast at this time.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ Sunday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040>045.