textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- 1 to 4 inches of snow is possible tonight through Saturday with multiple small systems.

- Active weather pattern continues with near daily medium to high chances for snow over much of the area through next week.

- Temperatures remain near average for Friday, then significantly cool this weekend. Temperatures gradually warm to start the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 945 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The forecast for tonight remains on track. Main forecast change was to add in some patchy freezing drizzle, based on ND DOT road reports and an occasional mixed/unknown precip observation. Overall, snow remains the dominate precip type, and we're still on track for a swath of 1-2 inches through sunrise Fri morning.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Embedded wave/clipper system moving southeast into the Northern Plains this evening, and will bring a swath of light accumulating snow to much of western and central North Dakota tonight, ending Friday morning after sunrise. 1-2 inches is still looking good considering minimal forcing outside of the wave itself and along the associated sfc trough axis. Initially we are getting mixed precipitation reports where sfc temperatures are at 32F or a tad warmer, though this has been quickly changing over to snow via web cam imagery. RAP/HRRR soundings do indicate a weak warm layer near the surface, and not completely saturated. So does make sense that a brief mix will be possible till we saturate and cool resulting quickly in all snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Currently the Northern Plains are under northwest flow between a large lower heights area in the Pacific Ocean, and another one north of Maine. At the surface, a warm front is moving east through the Dakotas and there is a cold front in southern Canada aimed at North Dakota.

This evening the northwest flow through Montana will develop a small wave off the Northern Rockies. This will then move through the Dakotas tonight, along with a cold front out of Canada. Pacific moisture embedded in the wave will meet up with the dropping cold front over North Dakota. This front will create strong frontogenesis (fgen) between northwest ND and southeast ND. In turn this will create a banded snow event somewhere along that diagonal line. Hi-res models are not in agreement fully on where the axis of the highest snowfall will be. Some are off by a county or 2 from the others. There will be some synoptic driven factors as well like diverging Q vectors and steep lapse rates around 8 degrees Celsius per km. The strongest diverging Q vectors seems to be along the fgen or to the north. With all these factors in mind we boosted the PoP chances from the NBM, as well as used the QPF from WPC. We drew in a broad 40 percent area along the fgen for now, and when we are more confident in the snow band location it will be bumped up to likely (60+ percent). Timing looks like sunset in the northwest, expanding south and east through the night and ending around 11am CT Friday. A trace to 2 inches can be expected in this first round tonight. The north central and far southwest may not get snow at all.

Friday will be another warmer day with highs in the 20s and 30s. Breezy winds could create blowing and drifting snow. Saturday morning the next round of snow moves in from another small wave creating a Northern Rockies low. This time the snow axis looks more like the southwest part of the state. This will be a familiar setup with a fgen band and steep lapse rates. Snow amounts could be 1 to 2 inches in southwest ND and drop to just a trace along the Missouri River. So across both systems 1 to 4 inches of snow are possible. This system will also bring in much colder air, making morning lows well below freezing and daytime highs in the single digits to teens through Sunday.

Next week northwest flow will still continue, this time with near daily waves. This will create light snow chances most days next week. The NBM already has likely (60%) chances in the forecast. Temperatures will be mild across most of the state with highs in the 20s and 30s. With those small quick moving systems, breezy to windy winds are possible and maybe create very low visibility.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Deteriorating conditions forecast for the 00Z TAF period. This evening, snow will develop in the west, then will spread east into central and eastern areas of the state. Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility with the snow. The snow will end through Friday morning after sunrise, with gradual improving ceiling conditions thereafter.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.