textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog tonight in the southwest.

- Above normal temperatures favored for most areas this week, with highs in the 30s and 40s.

UPDATE

Issued at 1217 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

No changes needed with this update. Still watching low stratus expand via nighttime satellite imagery, with breezy winds across central and eastern North Dakota as a cold front moves through. High-res guidance has backed off a bit on fog development but will continue to monitor through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Limited updates needed late this evening. Precipitation has diminished or moved out of North Dakota. A weak secondary cold front is pushing across from north to south and currently bringing some lower clouds to the area. Expect this front to continue to move southward through much of the night lingering some lower clouds. Perhaps a few flurries are possible in these clouds, although confidence was not high enough to place in the forecast at this time. Areas with partial clearing could see some patchy fog tonight, especially in the west. Other that some minor changes to sky cover the forecast overall remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Limited updates needed early this evening. There is some light rain and snow being reported near the ND/SD border and could linger into the early evening hours. Otherwise partly clear to cloudy skies will be found tonight with perhaps some patchy fog in the southwest and cooler lows in the mid teens to mid 20s. Overall just minor updates to PoPs based on current radar trends for this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a wave moving through South Dakota along a frontal boundary. Dry layer aloft and subsidence is hindering precipitation from reaching I-94. Rain and snow has been observed in the southwest today from this wave. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Tonight temperatures are forecast to drop down into the upper teens to mid 20s. Patchy fog is forecast to form in the southwest tonight lighter winds recent moisture could enable fog development.

The pattern will remain fairly stagnant this week. Temperatures will range from the 30s to 40s all week. The upper level pattern will remain in a quasi zonal flow into early next week. A split flow upper level pattern will majority of the waves north and south of North Dakota. Thursday one of the aforementioned waves could move across the Central Plains however the only precipitation chances are along the North and South Dakota border. Split flow will remain through weekend keeping the pattern fairly quiet. An upper level trough is forecast to dig across western CONUS early next week which could lead to a more active pattern next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Cloudy skies will be found to start tonight, with some MVFR ceilings. Patchy fog is also possible, especially in the west, although confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. A mix of clearing skies and lingering FEW to SCT MVFR ceilings are expected for tomorrow. Most sites should then return to VFR conditions tomorrow afternoon or evening. Westerly winds will also be found tonight through Tuesday, becoming light and variable Tuesday night. A brief period of breezy northwest winds may be found tonight, mainly across central and eastern portions of North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.