textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chances for light snow (with little or no accumulation) over central and into eastern North Dakota today into tonight. Dry Friday and through the weekend.

- Patchy blowing snow is expected today.

- Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with hit and miss low precipitation chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Only some minor adjustments to sky cover and pops. Lowered sky cover this morning over the southwest. This afternoon, pulled pops over eastern portions of central ND back west a bit and added some isolated flurries on the western fringes of the precip field. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A Blocking upper ridge to our east will keep the remnants of our exiting storm system lingering over the eastern half of the state today and into tonight. Surface high pressure will then build over the forecast area Friday and remain through the weekend.

The impacts from the lingering system are expected to be minimal. Light snow or flurries will remain over central ND with light snow chances mostly from the Turtle Mountains area into the James River Valley. Accumulations of a half inch or so will be possible today through tonight. As you head west towards the Highway 83 corridor, the near surface saturated layer is pretty shallow so we expect mainly flurries here, if anything, with no accumulations expected. We will see brisk northwest winds continue today with patchy blowing snow. However widespread reductions to visibility are not anticipated. Winds will subside this afternoon, especially west.

Surface high pressure builds over the area Friday and remains through the weekend. With low level moisture lingering over central ND and another ripple moving into the west, we can not rule out a little light snow or flurries on Friday as well. NBM pops are dry Friday and uncertainty is currently too high to include any pops at this time.

Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend, although the far southwest may end up being near normal. Most will see highs in the single digits and teens through the weekend with lows ranging from the single digits below zero north to above zero south. Later in the weekend low of 10 to 15 below may be possible in the north. Every night from tonight, through the weekend we will be flirting with Cold Weather Advisory wind chills around 30 below across the north. but at this time the areal extent is not that great. If we do end up with an advisory it would likely be confined to the Highway 2 corridor and north.

Upper level ridging pushes into the Northern Plains early next week bringing at least a temporary warm-up. We do transition to a northwest flow pattern bringing occasional hit an miss precipitation chances with clipper type systems, and the usual warmer temperatures ahead and colder temperatures behind each system. NBM ensemble temperature spreads are pretty high through next week so confidence in the timing/placement of any clipper system and the associated temperatures swings remains low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Mainly MVFR ceilings and gusty northwest surface flow through much of the 12Z TAF period.

To begin the 12Z TAF period, skies were mainly VFR over western and central ND, however there were some ares of MVFR ceilings, mainly in the northwest and then from the Turtle Mountains area into the James River Valley. Also northwest winds across the forecast area, mainly 20 to 30 knots. Expect these strong and gusty winds to continue through the day, then diminishing this evening and overnight to around 5-15kts. Expect widespread MVFR ceilings to develop this morning into the early afternoon across most of central ND. Portions of the west may remain VFR as this area will be on the edge of the lower ceilings. Expect areas of light snow (KJMS) or flurries (KMOT to KBIS) today with better chances this afternoon into the evening. Added a mention of light snow at KJMS late afternoon into this evening. Uncertainty is too high to add a mention of snow to KMOT or KBIS. With the higher snow amounts yesterday, and strong winds continuing, patchy blowing snow is possible across the northern and eastern portions of the forecast areas today. Added a mention of BLSN to KMOT and KJMS this morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.