textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions will continue into this evening, with cooler temperatures moving in tonight. - Accumulating snow to return tonight through Saturday with generally 1 to 5 inches forecast. Localized areas could see heavier amounts around 6 inches.

- Below normal temperatures to be found this weekend. A return to above normal temperatures are favored for next week. A more active weather pattern could develop for the second half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 446 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Winds have dropped off over central and eastern ND and thus have cancelled the Wind Advisory that was in effect through 7 PM this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Weak cold front will continue to push through this afternoon and evening from north to south. Strong winds have been observed along this front in northern and eastern portions, thus will maintain the Wind Advisory into the early evening hours. Some patchy blowing snow has also been observed near the Turtle Mountain area, although the bigger impacts due to blowing snow are currently being found in northeastern portions of the state. A surface high will then encroach on the area tonight changing these strong northwest winds to a steady and less windy northeast wind. This surface high will also reinforce this cold front with a clipper type system moving along it tonight through Saturday. Where this front and associated low setup will be the focus for accumulating snow starting later this evening through Saturday morning. The concern today are hi-res models such as the HRRR and RAP coming in further north and with higher snowfall amounts then the forecast trend over the preceding days. HREF 24 hour snowfall stamps show a wide range of northern solutions to more southern solutions, with severe in-between. Stamps also showing the potential for accumulations around or above 6 inches with the majority in the 1 to 5 inch range. Current forecast is somewhere in-between which may be slightly further north than previous forecast, yet still forecasting snowfall in the 1 to 5 inch range. Synoptically, there still remains a fair amount of QG forcing, yet the best frontogenesis is forecast along, south, and west of the Missouri River with the associated low taking a favorable parallel track to the boundary. This meshes well with a northeast flow pattern as the dry air associate with this surface flow can tend to limit how far north the heavier snow band can get. The quick residence time may also be limiting factors for heavier snow. The jet stream location may also not quite align with the best frontogenesis although could help contribute to increased snowfall amounts north of this area. Snow probs are bit misleading today, thus looked at chances for 0.25" of QPF in a 24 hour period for the decision on where to issue the Winter Weather Advisory. Looking at this supports shows greater than 60% chance of 0.25" along, south, and west of the Missouri River as well as southeastern portions of the CWA. These probabilities combined with the slightly northward shift was used for issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory tonight through Saturday morning. Any shifts to the band could provide for some adjustments to the advisory location. And will have to monitor for any Winter Storm Warning Upgrades if a heavier band can develop. Otherwise look for colder temperatures to move in tonight, with lows below zero northeast to the teens southwest. Diminishing winds should bring a limited threat for dangerous wind chills. The main band of snow should diminish Saturday morning, although light snow may linger across the central and east through the day. Highs will be colder on Saturday and generally in the single digits northeast to near 30 southwest. Another cold night could then be in store Saturday night as the surface high moves across the region. Lows in the single digits above and below zero will be found, with light winds limiting the threat for dangerous wind chills. This high then pushes east on Sunday, bringing southerly flow and slightly warmer temperatures in the teens east to the 30s west. Warm air advection aloft could bring a slight chance of snow to central and eastern portions, although the NBM has limited PoPs right now. Clearing skies with near normal lows in the teens are then expected for Sunday night.

A mix of zonal flow and weak ridging still expected early to mid next week. Mild temperatures are forecast as a result, although there still remain large temperature spreads given the uncertainty on timing of the ridging and how north the lingering cooler air recedes. Currently the warmest day is forecast on Wednesday as ridging moves to southwest flow aloft and brings forecast highs in the 50s for some southwestern areas. Limited chances for precipitation will be found through mid week. Later next week, a return to a trough pattern still be indicated by the clusters. How this trough sets up still remains uncertain. Chances for precipitation could return, although predictability at this point is low. The amount of cold air with this trough also looks uncertain given large temperature spreads. Thus precipitation could fall as rain or snow or both. So overall look for potentially more active weather later next week with uncertainty on how cold temperatures may get.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR, and perhaps IFR, conditions tonight into Saturday morning. Clouds will increase today, with strong northwest winds for most locations. Tonight into Saturday morning, snow will be found for most sites with MVFR to IFR conditions forecast. Some low level wind shear may also be found at KDIK tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will go from strong northwesterly to a steady northeast wind. Snow is forecast to diminish Saturday afternoon with MVFR to low VFR ceilings expected.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ009-017>020-031>034-041- 042-045. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for NDZ021-035>037-046>048-050-051.