textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog may return again this evening through Christmas morning.

- A large temperature gradient remains across the area with highs through Friday generally near to below average north and east of the Missouri River (teens and 20s) to above average south and west of the river (30s and 40s).

- 20 to 30 percent chance of light mixed precipitation on Christmas Day, mainly north and east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Currently, quasi-zonal flow aloft with broad upper level ridging across the High Plains. Surface high pressure centered to our northwest over central Saskatchewan with a trough of sfc low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. A mix of clouds and sun this afternoon with cold temperatures north (teens) and mild southwest (near 40).

CAMs continue to depict widespread fog development tonight, along with extensive low level stratus over western and central North Dakota developing and lingering through much of Christmas Day. Widespread dense fog will be possible, but will depend on the depth of low level saturation and surface winds, which are forecast to remain roughly at 10 knots tonight. Will be monitoring for possible fog headlines through the night.

If we get any precipitation over the next 36-48 hours, Christmas Day and Night will have the best chance when models bring embedded disturbances over the region as the upper ridge breaks down a bit. Otherwise, forcing is weak.

Thereafter, a split flow is advertised, with a northern stream S/WV pushing across the Northern Plains Saturday into Sunday. Currently doesn't appear to be much precipitation associated with this wave, but a cold FROPA does move through our region Sat and Sat night, bringing a period of gusty northwest wind and much colder air surging into the Dakotas. Cold weather and/or wind headlines are possible for Saturday-Sun morning, when apparent temperatures (wind chill values) are forecast to be as low as 35 below zero and wind magnitudes will approach 40 knots.

Upper level ridging rebuilds for next week across the Rockies with northwest flow aloft over our area. Ensembles show embedded waves moving through the flow aloft, and may bring light precipitation chances any given day. Temperatures moderate for early next week, followed by increasing uncertainty for the middle of the week with NBM 25/75 percentiles still showing almost a 40 degree spread. Culprit behind this is a stronger mid level disturbance moving through central Canada, which may or may not bring a quick shot of Arctic air to western and central North Dakota for New Year's Eve.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 604 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Look for increasing stratus and fog across most of the forecast areas this forecast period.

Currently a few areas of stratus/fog, but expect stratus and fog to expand this evening and overnight. There will be the potential for widespread IFR-LIFR ceilings and visibilities later this evening into Thursday morning. An upper level system will help clear the stratus/fog from west to east Thursday, beginning around mid-morning in the west. The upper level system may produce some light freezing rain/freezing drizzle Thursday before things clear out. East to southeast flow tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will be breezy at times overnight, before diminishing Thursday morning. Winds will shift westerly over western half of ND by late Thursday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.