textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 70s and 80s today and Friday, warming into the 80s and low 90s for the weekend.

- A more active severe weather pattern looks to be in store over the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 903 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The Severe Thunderstorm watch has been canceled. Mostly just rain showers and isolated lightning strikes remain across the central.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The storms have developed and entered the state, however they remain sub-severe as there is very little shear to work with and dew points are in the upper 40s. As of now the Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 03z. Will do another update if/when it gets canceled early.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week with periodic showers and thunderstorms, and near daily chances for severe thunderstorms somewhere within the forecast area.

For today, mostly dry conditions are expected as surface low pressure over southern Manitoba gradually churns eastward and keeps drier air over most of the forecast area. That said, Gulf moisture present over South Dakota may advect into far southern North Dakota. This could provide a little enhanced instability late this afternoon or evening. Combined with marginal shear, there is a low chance for severe thunderstorms near the ND/SD border, though severe storms are favored to remain focused mainly south of the state. 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail are the most likely threats.

Overnight tonight, isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are possible across most of the forecast area. These are not anticipated to be severe at this time. A few of these may linger into early Friday morning, though overall Friday should be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A few diurnal showers and thunderstorms could be forced from WAA off developing southwesterly flow aloft Friday afternoon, though available moisture appears limited and these would be favored primarily over the eastern half of the state. With weak deep layer shear and limited instability, any thunderstorms Friday afternoon will likely remain sub-severe.

As alluded to by mentions of southwesterly flow aloft in the previous paragraph, low pressure will partially dig into the west CONUS this weekend with associated trough lifting through the Northern Plains. This will increase the severe weather threat Saturday and especially Sunday. Current models favor Gulf moisture streaming into western ND on Saturday. However, the strongest forcing off mid-level s/w energy is favored to remain in Montana, while uncertainty in location of surface low development remains. Overall, concur with SPC and CSU machine learning that Saturday will favor eastern Montana more than western North Dakota for severe weather, though a conditional threat, especially along and near the ND/SD border remains.

Sunday currently contains the highest risk of the severe weather outlook as aforementioned trough continues lifting through the Northern Plains. With more favorable upper level dynamics and models in fair model agreement on a surface low sliding through North Dakota, severe weather seems probable to some extent. One fly in the ointment is a secondary upper level circulation progged southeast of the state. This may result in a sharp gradient in the strength of deep layer shear from northwest to southeast where stronger shear is favored in northwestern parts of the region and weaker shear in the southeast. This would favor severe weather in the western half of the state similar to SPCs outlook with lower probabilities further east, and a case where storm intensity may decrease as storms track eastward.

Models favor another trough digging into the west CONUS next week. However, there is disagreement in regard to the amplitude of this next trough, as well as the timing when/if it lifts through the Northern Plains. All in all, periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected next week with occasional severe weather possible.

Warm temperatures in the mid 80s to the low and possibly mid 90s are expected for most of the state Saturday and Sunday. A cooldown is then expected Monday behind a cold frontal boundary, after which warm temperatures and another cool down are favored for the middle and end of the week. Of note, gusty southerly winds are expected Saturday and Sunday across most of the state.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 903 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR through the period. This evening there are general thunderstorms in the central. So far they are not forecast to hit any of the main terminals, will AMD the TAF if that changes. Winds will be light and variable through the night and morning, then from the west or southwest 10 to 15 kts Friday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.