textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures through the weekend, except seasonable in the east and far north central today. Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day, with highs in the 30s northeast to around 60 far southwest.

- Scattered flurries and sprinkles today. Patchy fog also possible southwest.

- 20 to 30 percent chance for light snow and rain early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 942 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Abundant cloud cover and cooler yet still mild temperatures will be found today. Flurries and sprinkles continue to be reported under this cloud cover, thus decided to linger slight chances of these through the day. Also made some minor sky adjustments based on the latest satellite trends. Overall the forecast remains on track except for a few minor changes.

UPDATE Issued at 612 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Stratus over almost all of western and central ND early this morning, with the exception of the southwest where the stratus is very slowly expanding into. Scattered flurries/light snow showers persist central, with at times visibility reductions in falling snow. Overall, the forecast remains in decent shape for this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Currently, high amplitude upper level ridge extends from the Southern Plains north-northwest into the Canadian Rockies. Strong north-northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains this morning, with an area of sfc high pressure to our north. Cold FROPA pushed through earlier, with a large stratus deck surging south into the region behind the front. Subtle upper level forcing contributing to some light flurries with the stratus at times, so will keep a mention in the forecast for the AM hours. While models have backed off on the fog potential southwest, opted to keep a mention for now.

Much cooler today in the wake of the cold FROPA, with temperatures in the 20s north central and east, and highs southwest in the lower 40s. Clouds look to decrease some southwest, but expected to linger elsewhere today with little scouring expected. Surface high pressure builds south into eastern ND today, with a leeside sfc low developing across central Montana. Increasing return flow results, with south- southeast winds ramping up during the day and tonight.

WAA redevelops tonight into the weekend, as the upper ridge deamplifies and pushes farther to the east Sat-Sun. Despite the ridge breaking down Sat/Saturday night, WAA in the warm sector of a sfc low developing into far south central Canada, coupled with good mixing over our region, will result in Sunday being the warmest day of the period. NBM continues to show highs in the 30s east and into the Turtle Mountains, to the upper 50s or around 60 in the southwest, similar to what occurred this past Thursday.

Thereafter, upper level jet stream starts to sag farther south, suggesting temperatures trending cooler next week though remaining above normal. Models also showing a more active pattern developing for next week, which is emphasized by the NBM producing fairly widespread 20 to 30 percent chances for light precipitation early next week, with greater uncertainty for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Low clouds remain over all terminals this morning. MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings, along with some scattered flurries at times. The light snow will occasionally reduce visibility this morning. Conditions are expected to slowly improve today through tonight, starting in the west. Central areas may see low stratus through much of the 12Z period. Northwest winds diminish this morning and will shift east to southeast today.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.