textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions return through much of this week into early next week.

- Freezing temperatures expected over much of the area tonight, with freezing temperatures remaining possible over various parts of the area each night through Friday night.

- Gusty northwest winds expected Thursday, with some gusts to 45 mph. Breezy southerly winds are expected Friday.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 912 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

No major changes were needed for the late evening update. Temperatures are starting to dip fairly quickly where clouds have cleared out.

UPDATE Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

The western edge of the cloud shield continues to erode quickly from west to east this evening which should lead to optimal radiational cooling tonight. Thus, widespread hard freeze still looks to be on track. Much of the short term guidance has also come on board with fog development across much of the west overnight so did add areas of fog to the forecast here. Otherwise, just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast and updated the aviation forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Low stratus continues across the region slowly eroding across eastern Montana and trying to scatter out across central North Dakota. Surface high pressure continues to filter in across the west aiding in the clearing skies. There is still a chance all the low stratus does not clear out tonight which will cause low temperatures to be a few degrees warmer then currently forecast. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to drop down into below freezing, as low as 25 degrees in some spots, which could result in a widespread freeze. However, if the cloud cover continues to linger across the area, clouds could foil any widespread freeze. Tomorrow, high temperatures are forecast to sit in the 50s to lower 60s across the state. Low temperatures could be near freezing as surface high pressure moves off to the east.

An upper level low over the Desert Southwest will move up into the Central Plains Thursday with another upper level low dropping out from the Canadian Prairies. This split flow pattern will place North Dakota on the equatorward side of the northern stream, favoring strong cold air advection on the backside of the upper low. Thus windy conditions are forecast across the state Thursday with winds around 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon with some gusts up to 50 mph. Winds will tapper off by the overnight hours. There could also be a short window with relative humidity around 30 percent and windy conditions leading to near critical to critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. There is a low chance of maybe some showers in the James River Valley early Thursday morning. Surface high pressure will build over western North Dakota Thursday night into Friday morning resulting in another widespread freeze across the state.

After this upper low moves out of the region and strengthens over the Great Lakes, an upper level ridge will build over western CONUS. This ridge will kick surface high pressure off to the east resulting in the north south pressure gradient Friday. Which will cause breezy conditions out west. Winds are forecast to be around 15-20 mph overlapping with 20 percent minimum relative humidity could result in another afternoon of near critical fire weather conditions. The upper level ridge will center over the Northern Plains leading to warmer temperatures in the 60s to 70s this weekend into next week. No major system are forecast to move through the region this weekend resulting in dry and warm conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Ceilings will improve from MVFR to VFR west to east this evening/tonight. Areas of fog will develop across portions of the west overnight which could lead to some MVFR or localized IFR visibilities at KXWA/KDIK. Fog should lift mid to late morning with VFR prevailing through the rest of the period. Winds will generally be light and variable as high pressure settles in.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023- 025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.