textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered flurries possible tonight over western and central North Dakota.

- Temperature gradient remains over the area with highs through the week generally near to below average north and east of the Missouri River (teens and 20s) to above average south and west of the river (30s and 40s).

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light mixed precipitation on Christmas Day, mainly north and east.

UPDATE

Issued at 925 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Very light reflectivities continue to track east along the SD border. Yet to see any ground truth, but pops end here shortly so no changes anticipated. Farther to the north, cold air, stratus and flurries are spilling into the state behind the cold front. Precipitation is very light but we did add some scattered flurries as webcams and surface observations in the northwest have indicated light snow. Also bumped up the winds a behind the front.

UPDATE Issued at 559 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Latest radar loop shows most returns exiting from central into eastern ND at this time. However, there are a few light returns near Bismarck (probably not much if anything reaching the ground) and also over far southwest ND (where returns were decent). Hard to notice anything on the latest WV loop, but latest Rap40 shows a weak shortwave over southwest ND, which would account for this activity. The Cams are not picking up on this activity and in the whole scheme of things, it probably doesn't matter much, but we did add some slight chance pops (broad brushed) through the evening given the temperature profile is such that it could be a wintry mix of rain, snow or light freezing rain. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Current surface analysis places low over west-central South Dakota with inverted trough stretching northward through western North Dakota/southeastern Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis shows westerly flow over our area, with a few waves passing through.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, mid-level trough and affiliated warm air advection ahead of it may still lead to a few spots of very light rain/freezing rain into early this evening. Cold front now located over south central Saskatchewan into northeast Montana pushes in later this afternoon/evening, but latest guidance indicates that the cold air advection with this should be rather modest with maybe a few breezy periods in its wake going through tonight.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to stay quiet with modest upper level ridging. Temperature gradient remains over the area as cold air remains rather well entrenched over the northeast part of the state with highs only pushing into the teens, with rather mild air continuing to push into the southwest, with highs in the 40s over the far southwest.

Ridge axis pushes east as a few short waves pass through on Christmas Day into the evening. NBM had bumped up precipitation chances in this period, but has since backed off a bit leaving low chances (20-30 percent) over northern and eastern portions of our area. Really cant argue with this given the low amount of forcing, and timing is still a ways out to really pin-point where the best forcing may set up. In addition, temperature profiles remain right on the cusp of snow/freezing rain chances, so will continue to advertise possibility of a wintry mix.

Another more notable wave is forecast to make its way through the area Friday, bringing additional low to medium (20 to 40 percent) chances for precipitation. Again, thermal profile still remains a bit sketchy so will show a wintry mix for parts of the area. Quieter weather looks to end the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1043 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Periods of mainly MVFR stratus tonight into early Wednesday morning over western and central North Dakota. This is a thin stratus layer, with breaks, but also periods of flurries. High pressure quickly builds over the area Wednesday morning so stratus doesn't appear to last a long time at any one site but will be possible at all TAF sites, generally during the 06-12 UTC timeframe. Once MVFR ceilings clear, it looks like mainly mid and high level cloudiness through the remainder of the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds early in the TAF period will diminish from west to east late tonight into mid morning Tuesday, then shift to the southeast from west to east mid morning through late afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.