textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light accumulating snow will taper off over central North Dakota through tonight.

- Areas of fog, perhaps dense at times, across western North Dakota tonight into Tuesday morning. The fog could expand into central North Dakota early Tuesday morning. - Light freezing drizzle and flurries are possible across much of central North Dakota tonight through Tuesday morning.

- Low to medium chances for light mixed precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Near to above normal temperatures favored through this week. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the upper 30s northeast to upper 50s far southwest.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Weak to moderate radar returns linger across much of central North Dakota at the time of this mid night update. An interrogation of BUFKIT models soundings reveals slightly better saturation of the DGZ, and thus better ice production, can be found over the north central. As expected, precpitation here has been comparably consistent. Elsewhere across central North Dakota, very light precpitation in the form of flurries and freezing drizzle has been observed. This lingering precpitation is expected to slowly make its way east overnight, before diminishing by the mid morning. Across the west, where conditions near the surface are fairly saturated, and where south to southwesterly winds are light, patchy to areas of fog have developed. This fog has occasionally dropped visibilities to as low as 1/4 mile, though only briefly and over a smaller area. Will continue to monitor visibility trends overnight. Overall, the forecast remains on track at this time, with no adjustments performed with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Meridional mid level vorticity advection paired with low level frontogenesis is drifting across the western half of the state this evening. This zone contains areas of fog and mostly light precipitation in the form of flurries or perhaps freezing drizzle at times. There are two exceptions to this, however. Recent radar imagery shows an increase in reflectivity over Burke and Mountrail Counties, moving southeast. These quick moving snow showers could briefly reduce visibility to one mile and produce a few tenths of an inch of new accumulation. Confidence in the persistence of these relatively heavier snow showers is low. In addition, recent webcam imagery from eastern Hettinger and western Grant Counties shows more of a mix of light freezing rain and snow, and there has also been unknown precipitation types reported from an automated sensor at Hazen.

We do anticipate that excessive low level moisture will continue to promote fog across western North Dakota, flurries across central North Dakota, and very light freezing drizzle or mist in between the two through tonight and into Tuesday morning. Not expecting anything beyond low impacts from freezing drizzle at this time, but this will need to be monitored closely through the night.

Recent CAMs have trended toward a large area of mixed showery precipitation crossing the state from north to south Tuesday afternoon and evening, being forced by a mid level shortwave with support from the left exit region of an upper level jet. Low to medium PoPs have been introduced to the forecast for now, as there are still run-to-run inconsistencies among CAMs on how widespread this precipitation could be.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Over the last few hours, a pocket of heavier snow showers has moved through Mountrail and western McLean Counties, and now into eastern Mercer and approaching Oliver Counties at the time of this writing. Visibility as low as half a mile has been observed with this quick moving area of snow, but recent radar reflectivity indicates a slight weakening trend. This snow could reach the Bismarck/Mandan area around 7 PM CST if it holds together.

Webcams and surface observations show patchy dense fog from eastern Stark and western Morton Counties through Grant County, which lines up well with recent HRRR visibility guidance. Forecast confidence in this evolving into a more widespread fog event remains low.

No major changes were made to the forecast for this update, but we will need to evaluate the potential for freezing drizzle across parts of central North Dakota later tonight. Recent RAP soundings at Bismarck, for example, project all necessary and favorable ingredients to be present for several hours. It may however be cold enough in the saturated layer to the north and east for any light precipitation to fall as flurries. This will be the main forecast concern that needs addressing in the next update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Light snow will continue to track southeast and taper off through the afternoon. Currently, light snow was indicated over much of central North Dakota. There were some pockets of moderate snow along the Highway 52 corridor from Minot to Jamestown and along the I-94 corridor over Kidder and Stutsman counties. All of this activity was tracking to the southeast. From webcams it looks like most of the accumulations were light, but there were times when the snow was coming down pretty good.

For late this afternoon and tonight, light snow will taper off over central North Dakota. We added some patchy fog over western ND and portions of the south central. Latest Cams are showing hints of some fog mostly over the west, but possibly expanding east into central ND late over night or into Tuesday morning. With cams not too excited in low visibilities, kept the mention of fog to patchy to start. However bufkit soundings and the RAP and HRRR low level moisture products keep the lower layers of the atmosphere well saturated tonight and Tuesday and even into Wednesday.

A shortwave tracking south through eastern Montana Tuesday and a northern stream cold front dropping south through North Dakota Tuesday evening, will each keep a low probability of a mixed bag of precipitation over the forecast area. At this time it does not appear that QPF amounts will be significant, but if the precip would fall as freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, there could be travel impacts due to slick roadways. Any snow that would fall is not expected to produce significant accumulations. There is not a clear signal for one precip type over the other, and snow and/or freezing drizzle will both be possible. It does appear that the mixed precip threat is higher over the west and south central, compared to the north central and into the James River Valley.

Cloudy skies, patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle and fog, with light snow or flurries will remain in the forecast through Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday morning. Eventually, during the day Wednesday and especially by Thursday we see a significant warmup with temperatures climbing into the upper 30s around the Turtle Mountains, to the upper 50s in the far southwest. As we head into the weekend we see a western North America Ridge with an eastern North America trough. We will be setting on the transition between the two, thus quite a bit of uncertainty in the temperature forecast. We see a drop in temperatures on Friday and then a gradual rise thereafter, but the NBM ensemble spreads are pretty high through this period, which is reasonable as we are sitting on the transition between the western ridge and eastern Trough. A hit or miss rain or snow shower can not be ruled out after Wednesday but for the most part we are expecting mostly dry conditions from Wednesday through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Widespread low ceilings are expected across western and central North Dakota through much of the forecast period. Late evening observations indicate IFR to LIFR ceilings across western North Dakota, improving eastward to MVFR at KBIS and VFR from KMOT to KJMS. We anticipate that at least IFR ceilings will spread eastward over both KBIS and KMOT later tonight into Tuesday morning, with MVFR ceilings reaching KJMS. Tuesday afternoon will likely see improvement to at least MVFR ceilings at all terminals, with VFR possible in the west.

Several meteorological phenomena could cause visibility restrictions at various times throughout the forecast period. Light snow/flurries remain possible through tonight across central North Dakota. Areas of freezing fog/mist are expected across western North Dakota through tonight and into Tuesday morning. The fog could reduce visibility as low as LIFR. An area of freezing drizzle could also develop later tonight across central North Dakota, mainly in between the fog and flurries. Then from mid Tuesday afternoon into the evening, there is increasing confidence that a large area of mixed showery precipitation could move from north to south across the state.

Light and variable winds are expected through Tuesday morning. Then Tuesday afternoon winds are forecast to become northwesterly around 10-15 kts in western North Dakota, and turning from southwest to northwest around 5-10 kts in central North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.