textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A few areas of frost possible tonight into Thursday morning, mainly in the north. A larger area of frost may come Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Slightly below average temperatures to end the week. - An overall mainly dry pattern is expected through the rest of the week with low to medium chances in the southwest Thursday. Low to medium chances may return Friday night into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Overall the forecast remains on track. Temperatures in the northwest could be in the mid 30s tonight given clear skies and light winds. This could bring some areas of frost, although confidence in widespread frost remains too low for any highlight at this time. Otherwise limited updates needed to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Forecast remains on track. Little to no updates needed.

UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Little to no updates needed. Forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

As a clipper system in Canada passes to the north, very light showers are moving through areas along the ND/ Canada International border with breezy northwest winds across the state. Cool temperatures will follow suit of this mostly dry cold front as surface high pressure moves the system eastward. Overnight tonight, low temperatures will dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s with high temperature tomorrow in the mid 50s to mid 60s. With these cool overnight lows, there may be some localized areas with frost in the northern portion of the state. As surface high pressure settles into the area tomorrow, cool air will remain with less windy conditions. Because of this, overnight temperatures Thursday into Friday will dip lower than tonight with lows in the 30s to low 40s and more widespread frost potential for northern areas. While this would be the first widespread frost of the this fall season, it is climatologically normal. By Friday, the surface high pressure will move out of the region as a developing surface front to our west will bring breezy southerly flow. As a result an elevated warm front looks to move through, followed by a weak clipper system Friday night. Low to medium chances for showers could be found from either of these features. Temperatures could warm slightly, yet overall remain in the 60s for highs. Cloudy conditions could also bring slightly warmer temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows forecast in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday morning some lingering showers could be present as a result of the aforementioned clipper system with near seasonable high temperatures in the 60s and breezy northwest winds. Dry high pressure conditions return overnight Saturday with low temperature returning to the 30s. Zonal flow will set up early next week that could bring weak disturbances and low chances for precipitation. This westerly flow could also bring some warming temperatures, with forecast highs currently in the mid 60s to mid 70s Monday and Tuesday. Milder morning lows would also be found with this pattern. An increased gradient at the surface could also bring some breezy southerly winds on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some mid to high clouds will be found across the south tonight, with mostly clear skies expected for Thursday. A breezy northwest wind could return Thursday, mainly from KMOT to KBIS and eastward, including KJMS. Light and variable winds are then expected for Thursday night.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.