textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions far southwest Monday afternoon.

- Very warm southwest Monday with highs into the mid 80s. Not as warm elsewhere, but still mild. - Cooler, but still seasonable to mild Tuesday through Saturday with highs ranging from the 60s northeast to the 70s southwest.

- Breezy at times Monday into Tuesday and then again Friday into Saturday.

- Possibly much cooler Sunday with low to medium chances for rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Currently, a large area of high pressure extended from Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, south through the northern Plains and into the central Plains. Aloft, a broad upper level ridge extended from the eastern Pacific, into the northern Plains. An upper level trough was situated over southeast Canada and into the northern Great Lakes region.

For tonight, surface high pressure moves east and a southerly return flow develops from west to east across the forecast area. Winds have already turned southeast over western ND, and will continue to increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Southeast winds may be breezy at times across the area tonight as the return flow works its way east. The dry lower atmosphere and breezy conditions will inhibit any fog tonight. Eastern portions of central ND may see lows drop down into the mid to upper 30s, as winds won't pick up here until near sunrise.

After midnight, there may be some mid level cloudiness work its way northward from central South Dakota, into south central and eastern North Dakota. A sprinkle or isolated brief shower can't be completely ruled out, but am not going to add any mention at this time. Any precip would be negligible.

A warm front lifts across the area on Monday bringing very warm temperatures to southwest North Dakota. Daytime highs Monday are currently forecast to be in the mid 80s in far southwest ND. The normal high for Dickinson in early October is in the lower to middle 60s. It won't be as warm elsewhere, but it will mild pretty much everywhere on Monday. Breezy south to southeast winds will continue over central and into eastern ND, while in the west, winds will drop off, then shift to the west to northwest over far western ND Monday afternoon behind a cold front. Winds will shift west to northwest across central ND Monday evening behind the front. See the fire weather discussion below for more specific details regarding fire weather concerns Monday.

Temperatures trend cooler Tuesday through Thursday as a broad northwest upper level flow develops from British Columbia Canada into the northern Great Lakes region. A strong upper level jet works its way into northeastern ND Tuesday into Wednesday and remains situated northwest through southeast across the area through Thursday. A few jet induced sprinkles or brief showers can not be ruled out again, but with surface high pressure at the surface, will not add any mention of rain.

The upper level jet lifts back north Friday into Saturday and we warm up again ahead of a developing upper level trough over western Canada into the Pacific Northwest. This upper level trough may bring much cooler temperatures and at least a chance of precipitation late in the weekend and into early next week. Currently the NBM is depicting low to medium (20 to 40%) precipitation chances Saturday night through Sunday night.

Current cluster analysis is favoring a cooldown with at least some low precipitation chances later in the weekend and into early next week. Cluster analysis is also in decent alignment suggesting that it's not "if" we have a cooldown, it's more of a "to what extent" will we cool down, and how long will the cooldown last before we warm back up. NBM ensemble temperature guidance for October 11th-13th shows quite a drop off in temperatures at all observation sites, but also a very large spread in both low and especially high temperatures for this timeframe. As for precipitation type, deterministic and ensemble models are both hinting at temperatures cold enough to support some snow. We will have to see how things play out through the upcoming week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. Otherwise, breezy winds will develop out of the southeast late tonight in the far northwest, then across most of the rest of the state Monday. These winds will begin to transition to a more westerly component for the western half of the state through the day Monday as a warm frontal boundary passes through. Brief LLWS could also transition from west to east ahead of the front late tonight and early Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A cold front will move across far western North Dakota Monday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower to middle 80s, with abundant sunshine and afternoon humidities dropping into the teens and lower 20s. Although the cold front will usher in slightly cooler air, it will also remain quite dry behind the front. The far southwest portion of the state (Bowman and Slope Counties) is expected to see a few hours when the combination of sustained winds around 20 mph and humidities of 15 to 20 percent, will create near critical fire weather conditions. As you get north and east of this area, humidities are not expected to be as low, and winds not quite as strong. Even in the far southwest, the duration of the near critical fire weather conditions is not expected to last more than a few (2-4) hours. If humidities drop lower and winds are stronger this area may need to be expanded, or a Red Flag Warning may be needed.

Very low afternoon humidities are expected over far southwest North Dakota again on Tuesday. However, on Tuesday, the strongest winds are forecast to be over central North Dakota and temperatures are not forecast to be as warm as on Monday. There, could still be a couple hours of near critical fire weather conditions, but we will wait and see how trend continue before introducing the near critical wording to the fire weather forecast.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.