textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions today through Friday for all of western and central North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- Strong winds will persist through Friday. Patchy blowing dust is expected at times.

- High chances (60 to 80 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. The highest chances are during the day Sunday.

- Frost and freeze conditions may return to parts of the area starting Friday night. The highest probability for widespread frost and freeze conditions is Monday night and Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The previously mentioned line of showers has tapped into elevated instability on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg. As a result, thunderstorm activity has increased across parts of the central North Dakota early this morning, with the most frequent lightning strikes having been from eastern Burleigh into Wells County. Issued a couple SPSs for these thunderstorms to highlight the potential for 55 mph wind gusts. These thunderstorms should move out of the forecast area within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 506 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Surface low pressure is currently entering southern Saskatchewan, and is expected to pass from west to east across southern Canada over the next few days. Currently, strong winds across most of the state are out of the southeast. However, an associated cold frontal boundary has just entered western North Dakota within the past hour or so. This fropa will switch winds to a westerly direction that persists through Friday. Showers ahead of this frontal boundary are primarily virga, though occasional reports of a brief sprinkle or light rain have been observed, as well as a few isolated lightning strikes.

There may be a brief lull in the winds as the front approaches, and then again in the southern half of the state tonight. However, the surface low is progged to deepen and wind up through the day today, and then remain tightly wound through Friday. As a result, overall very windy conditions are expected to persist through the day Friday before rapidly diminishing Friday evening. Currently, the strongest winds are favored in the northwest. All in all, ongoing wind headlines look good at this time. One other note is that patchy blowing dust is expected at times with these strong winds.

Saturday will remain dry with light winds. After which, models are coming into agreement that low pressure will begin to develop over Colorado and lift northeast through the Great Lakes region. This will help bring bring Gulf moisture into the Northern Plains, though models maintain some disagreement as to how far into North Dakota it will penetrate before Canadian high pressure cuts off the spigot. Bottom line is that the probability of precipitation continues to increase with all of the state currently seeing multiple six hour periods of 60 percent or greater chances Saturday night through Monday. The highest overall chances are during the day Sunday. The NBM probability for at least half an inch of rain is in excess of 50 percent for all locations east of Highway 85, and around 30 percent along the ND/MT border.

High temperatures today through Saturday will be mostly in the 70s. Cooler conditions mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s are then forecast on Sunday. These cooler temperatures, albeit with a slight warming trend, are then favored into the middle of next week. Frost and freeze headlines could wind up being needed for parts of the area starting Friday night, but possibly across a more widespread area starting Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A frontal boundary is passing from west to east across the state this morning. Ahead of the front is a line of showers, along with a few thunderstorms. With the exception of more organized thunderstorm activity, this is primarily virga with a few sprinkles or brief rain showers reaching the ground. Winds ahead of the front are also southeasterly and will switch to a westerly direction as the front passes through. Brief LLWS is possible ahead of the frontal boundary, with KMOT the most likely terminal to experience LLWS. Primarily along the frontal boundary, brief reductions in visibility from blowing dust, along with false ceilings, have been observed. For the most part, VFR ceilings and visibility will prevail through the period. However, additional patchy blowing dust may become an off and on occurrence through the period resulting in occasional reductions to MVFR/IFR visibility.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 506 AM CDT THU May 14 2026

Dry and very windy conditions will continue through Friday. For this morning, a cold frontal boundary off Canadian low pressure will pass across the state from west to east resulting in winds shifting from a southeasterly component to a westerly component. Fairly widespread radar echoes are present ahead of the front. However, the lower levels are so dry that no more than a few sprinkles or brief light rain have been observed so far. That is unlikely to change, though of note, a few isolated lightning strikes have also been observed.

Aforementioned low pressure will continue to deepen and wind up through the day today, remaining so through Friday, as it gradually churns towards James Bay. This will allow winds to remain persistently windy through Friday, though a drop in winds across the southern half of the state tonight is possible as diurnal enhancement is lost. Considering relative humidity recoveries are only around 40 to 50 percent, will continue the Red Flag Warning for all of western through central North Dakota, including the James River Valley, through Friday. Winds should then diminish rapidly Friday evening and overnight, though likely maintain a westerly component.

Winds Saturday should be light, but will transition from a westerly to easterly direction as the next system approaches. This next system is favored to begin in Colorado before lifting towards the Great Lakes Region. This will result in the return of windy conditions and the advection of Gulf moisture into parts of the Northern Plains. As such, the probability for widespread precipitation keeps increasing. At this point, for Sunday through Monday, almost every part of the state has at least one six hour period with a 60 to 80 percent chance of a wetting rain. Every part of the state has multiple six hour periods of at least a 40 percent chance of a wetting rain.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 031>037-040>048-050-051. High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ004-005- 012-013-019-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051- 057>062. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for NDZ018- 031>033-040-041-043-044.