textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures continue Saturday over most locations. Some records may again be tied or set.

- Low to medium precipitation chances Saturday/Saturday night as cold front passes through.

- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week behind the cold front, then warming trend into mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Cloud cover was the main forecast update, mainly to increase tonight with expected upper level clouds streaming east through the night.

Embedded ridge rider S/WV and associated sfc low will move east-southeast across the region this evening into the overnight. May see some light rain far north (slight chance POPs), though most precipitation with this wave should stay in Canada. Stronger embedded wave and associated cold front will then bring precip chances during the day Saturday north and elsewhere Sat night as the cold front drops south. Did increase POPs a bit during the day Sat, though not drastically.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Northwesterly flow continues over the northern Plains, as a broad ridging pattern remains over the western CONUS. Mainly dry and unseasonable warm conditions continue across western and central North Dakota, with highs broadly in the 60s and 70s. In the far north central, where some lingering snowpack remains, slightly lower highs in the 40s and 50s are anticipated. Strong low to mid level lapse rates across the west and portions of the south central are expected to promote breezy conditions, with sustained speeds from 15 to 20 MPH and isolated gusts up to 25 MPH, though the lack of a consolidated 850mb jet help limit winds compared to yesterday. With the warm weather, relative humidity in the far southwest is expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range which, along with the breezy winds, will promote a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Later this evening into tonight, some low chances for light rain are possible over the Turtle Mountain area as a weak shortwave skims across the northeast. Patchy fog is also possible in far north central North Dakota, mainly where lingering snowpack continues to melt. Overnight lows are from the 30s far north central, to the 40s northwest and south.

On Saturday, the ridge over the western CONUS is progged to be flattened by a slightly more energetic wave ejecting off of the northern Pacific low. A cold front associated with this wave is expected to move from north to south through the late afternoon and overnight. Ahead of this, highs broadly in the 60s and 70s are still anticipated for Friday afternoon. Along and behind the cold front, low chances (10 to 30 percent) for light precpitation is anticipated in the mid afternoon through the early overnight period. With the warmer temperatures in the afternoon, precpitation is expected to initially fall as rain, though may briefly transition to light snow on the trail end as conditions cool in the late evening. Little to no accumulation is anticipated at this time, especially considered the warm subsurface conditions across much of the area. Also of note is the potential for gusty winds. With CAA increasing from north to south, gusty north winds with sustained speeds up to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH can be expected across much of the area late Saturday afternoon through the evening. Behind the cold front, low temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning are broadly expected to be in the 20s.

Cooler, near to slightly above normal highs in the 30s north central to lower 50s southwest are then expected Sunday. A rebounding western CONUS ridge late Sunday through early next week will bring much of the northern Plains back into a warming and dry pattern through the period. By the mid week, a pattern shift is expected as a strong Hudson Bay Low develops and displaces the ridge much further to the south. This switch-over Wednesday and Thursday represents our next opportunity for precpitation across much of the forecast area, with the ensemble advertising low pops (10 to 30 percent) for this period. This far out, ensemble members remain fairly divisive when it comes to the timing of the trough. A slight majority of ensemble members (55 percent) favor evolution of the trough, which would allow for Wednesday to remain broadly in the 60s and 70s. This scenario would also delay the onset of precpitation. A minority cluster (45 percent) instead champions the trough making it to the northern Plains by early Wednesday, allowing for cooler highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s, and for chances for precpitation in the morning. In either scenario, gusty winds can be with this system as CAA increases across the state.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions for the 00Z period. Some low stratus and fog may develop over portions of far north central North Dakota tonight, mainly where snowpack lingers. Confidence is too low to include for mention at KMOT, but did mention the lower cig. Otherwise upper level clouds aloft. Periods of low level wind shear expected at all terminals late this evening into parts of Saturday morning. Winds will become northwest-northerly for Saturday as a cold front moves into the region. Late in the period, low VFR/MVFR ceilings forecast to develop north and east, impacting KMOT and KJMS

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.