textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and rainy through Monday. The highest rain chances are across western and north central North Dakota.

- Rain could change over to snow in the far northwest late tonight through Monday morning. Light snow accumulations are possible.

- Near to below freezing low temperatures are expected throughout the upcoming week.

- A mid to late week system could bring light precipitation and breezy conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Scattered radar echoes are present, though any rain within the forecast area is pretty light at the moment. However, the Williston radar suggests returns are becoming more organized in the northwest. This trend should continue with widespread rain expected to develop across western and north central North Dakota tonight, with lower chances further south and east. Some of the hi-res models suggest accumulating snowfall is possible in the far northwest tonight into Monday morning. This is supported by the BUFKIT RAP model forecast sounding in Crosby which illustrates multiple hours of saturation through the DGZ with surface temperatures only barely above freezing. If this were to play out, there couple be a few hours of snowfall with light accumulations possible. That said, overall ensemble probabilities of even an inch of snow remain very low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Southwesterly flow continues across the region as an upper level low digs across Western CONUS. The wave that brought light rain through the region is up in Canada now with the wave forecast to move up from western South Dakota and eastern Montana into North Dakota tonight. Rain is forecast to expand west to east tonight with the heaviest amounts forecast to fall in the northwest. With medium chances for half of an inch of rain. There is a low chance of snow mixing in Monday morning across the far northwest as temperatures approach freezing. A colder airmass will stay in place through the middle of the week resulting in temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s. Overnight low temperatures will likely approach freezing Monday and Tuesday morning. A hard freezing will be more likely Tuesday morning across the northwest.

The upper low that is digging out west will cutoff early next week and slowly pass south of the Northern Plains. Temperature will slowly trend up by the end of the week. There is a northern stream low that will pass northeast of the region likely bring low chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. The ENS and GEFS ensembles are favoring this system to strengthen over the Great Lakes instead of the Northern Plains. After this next system moves east the NBM is favoring above normal temperatures forecast next weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Slow moving low pressure will bring widespread rain to western and central North Dakota tonight through Monday morning before gradually ending from west to east Monday afternoon. The longest duration of the highest probabilities remains in northwestern and north central North Dakota. Along with rain chances, IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected across most of the state tonight through most of the day Monday. Rain may change to snow in far northwestern North Dakota tonight and into Monday morning. There is a low probability that this could impact the KXWA terminal.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.