textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Well below average temperatures statewide and very cold wind chills continue through Sunday morning. - Temperatures warm to above average through the first half of next week, then trend colder late in the workweek.

- A strong low pressure system could bring mixed precipitation and strong winds Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 554 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

For early evening update, have decided to expand cold weather advisory to include Burleigh, Logan, LaMoure, and Dickey Counties. A significant portion of these counties were borderlineon criteria, but enough to warrant expansion. Otherwise, going forecast remains in good shape with the cold temperatures continuing to be the main concern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Surface high pressure will continue sliding through the state this afternoon and evening, which will result in mostly clear skies, light winds, and the continuation of very cold temperatures. As such, the Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the northwest, much of central, and eastern North Dakota through Sunday morning. As aforementioned high pressure slides southeast, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten from west to east later tonight and through the day Sunday. This will result in breezy southerly winds, which will help pump warmer air into the state. This warmer air will allow temperatures to rise during the overnight hours in the western half of the state. It is plausible that patchy fog could develop mainly in the south central tonight. However, overall confidence is pretty low so left out of the forecast for now. In addition, patchy drifting snow is possible during the breeziest winds on Sunday, with the potential for some snow becoming elevated where winds are the strongest, or mainly in localized areas along the downslope of the Missouri Coteau.

Aloft, ridge over the west CONUS will gradually slide eastward Sunday through Monday night or Tuesday morning, break down from a passing shortwave/clipper system, rebuild as a secondary ridge passes through, and then break down again as a stronger clipper system slides through sometime Wednesday into Thursday. What does this all mean? Well, essentially a warming trend through the first half of next week with well above average highs Monday through Wednesday. The Tuesday/Tuesday night clipper is favored to remain in southern Canada, which should keep things mostly dry (only low probability, light snow chances at this time), but will bring breezy westerly winds across the state on Tuesday. These warming winds will help drive highs into the 40s across most of the state on Tuesday.

In regard to the second and potentially stronger clipper system Wednesday night into Thursday, depending on timing, initial precipitation may fall in the form of rain. After which, a transition to a rain/snow mix and then all snow is possible on the back side Thursday. Along with sub-freezing thermal profiles, current limited model forecast soundings favor saturation through the DGZ. If this were to play out, freezing rain would not be anticipated. However, wouldn't be surprised if hi-res models don't bring in a drier layer through the DGZ once this system reaches their time range. Such a solution would bring mixed precipitation into the equation. Regardless of how much precipitation falls and precipitation type, strong westerly to northwesterly winds are possible with this system.

Post clipper, northwesterly flow aloft and an overall cooling trend is then favored for the latter half of the week. However, with northwesterly flow aloft, the NBM forecast is producing the frequently observed pattern of much cooler temperatures northeast to much warmer temperatures southwest. Or in other words, potentially well below average at times northeast to above average southwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. Low level wind shear becomes a concern Sunday over many locations with southerly to westerly winds.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for NDZ001>005- 009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-051.