textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Below freezing low temperatures tonight.

- Warmer beginning Thursday, but sub-freezing low temperatures return to the forecast Saturday night.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions possible on Friday and Saturday.

- Only occasional low chances for light precipitation through the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Only notable forecast change for this update was to decrease our overnight low temperature forecast based on current observations and trends. Otherwise, the near-term forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 942 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

In the wake of the mid level S/WV and loss of daytime heating, the sky is rapidly clearing across western and central North Dakota this evening, in addition to winds trending light and variable. Updates with this product issuance were minor and based on latest observations.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Embedded S/WV continues to push south-southeast across the Dakotas early this evening, resulting in mainly diurnally driven clouds and some light radar returns. Opted to remove any precip mention with the boundary layer simply too dry for anything to reach the surface. Sky cover was also modified based on latest satellite and trends, with clouds decreasing tonight. No other major edits to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Northwest flow will persist tonight with the Hudson low continuing. Some cloud cover could persist across the eastern half of the state with a weak wave moving through in northwest flow through this evening with mainly dry conditions expected. Clearing skies tonight will provide for temperatures below freezing, with lows forecast in the 20s. Northwest flow will persist for Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures in the 60s forecast. Dry conditions will persist bringing minimum afternoon RH values in the 20s. With light winds forecast, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast. Later in the day through Thursday night, a weak wave in the northwest flow will push across the area bringing some increased cloud cover. There could be a few isolated showers as a result, although abundant dry air will greatly limit this threat and have kept the forecast dry for now. With more mild temperatures returning, lows Thursday night into Friday morning are forecast to be at or above freezing and generally in the 30s. Northwest flow persists Friday, although a weak surface front will encroach on the area later Friday through Friday night. Ahead of this front will be some breezy to windy conditions. Warming temperatures in the 70s on Friday will bring continued low RH values in the 20s. This combine with the mentioned increased winds could bring some near critical fire weather conditions.

The mentioned front moves through Friday night through Saturday. This could bring some rain showers with perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures Saturday will cool only slightly to the 60s. Saturday could again see near critical fire weather conditions, although confidence is not as high as on Friday with slightly improved RH values, and perhaps less wind forecast. Issuance of Frost/Freeze products begins Friday, May 8th. Low temperatures forecast in the 30s Saturday night into Sunday may necessitate one of these products and will have to be monitored closely. Front stalls on Sunday bringing warmer temperatures to the west and near normal temperatures to the east. Light winds and mainly dry conditions are also forecast for Sunday as a weak ridge is forecast to move across the region.

Hudson Bay low pushes eastward this weekend bringing a flat ridging pattern early to mid next week. This brings warmer temperatures to the area, breezy winds, and limited chances for precipitation. Currently the more widespread PoPs come on Monday with the passage of a surface low. This could even bring a few isolated thunderstorms. With highs forecast in the 70s, afternoon RH values in the 20s and 30s, combined with the mentioned breezy winds some fire weather concerns may continue into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with mid to high clouds increasing from west to east on Thursday. Northwest winds around 10 kts Thursday afternoon, otherwise light and variable.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.