textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions likely on Monday across western through most of central ND.

- Windy conditions and low humidity values through the rest of the upcoming week may lead to daily critical fire weather conditions.

- Patchy frost possible tonight in the James River Valley through the Turtle Mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The story for the week will be mostly dry and frequently windy conditions. The biggest overall weather impacts will be in regard to fire weather. Those are discussed in the fire weather section below.

For today, surface high pressure will yield light and variable winds with highs in mid 50s east to around 70 west. For tonight, conditions will remain dry, while southerly winds begin to increase as surface low encroaches from southwestern Canada and the pressure gradient tightens. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 30s in eastern North Dakota to the mid 40s in the west tonight. This could lead to some patchy frost in the James River Valley through the Turtle Mountains. However, depending on sky cover, it's possible temperatures could remain a few degrees warmer.

Initial windy conditions out of the south with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 45 mph are expected mainly east of Highway 83 on Monday. By Monday afternoon, a trailing cold frontal boundary will shift winds to the northwest, which will lead to a secondary surge in winds of similar values, especially in the northwest. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening, mainly in the north central and east, as shortwave energy and this associated cold fropa move through the state. The strongest CAA and pressure rises are favored after 0Z, which may result in windy conditions persisting a bit longer than currently forecast.

The strongest CAA and pressure rises should have exited the forecast area by mid Tuesday morning. However, sunny skies will aid in a good mixing day that will result in another day of windy conditions. The strongest winds are currently forecast east of Highway 83 with localized gusts up to 50 mph possible, while breezy conditions are favored further west closer to the ND/MT border. Winds will rapidly diminish Tuesday evening as high pressure encroaches into the state and diurnal heating is lost.

Mostly dry and breezy to windy conditions are then favored to finish out the week. That said, uncertainty does creep in towards the latter half of the workweek. For example, half the clusters produce another windy day on Thursday, while the other half show much lighter winds. The warmest days of the week are forecast to be Wednesday and Thursday, with Thursday reaching the 80s across most of the forecast area. A slight cooling trend and the return of low precipitation chances are then favored to finish out the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most of western through central North Dakota Monday.

Breezy southerly winds will begin to develop tonight as low pressure encroaches from southwestern Canada. Winds will then increase through Monday morning and early afternoon for the eastern half of the state as the low passes through. Associated trailing cold frontal boundary will then shift winds to a northwesterly direction over western parts of the state in the afternoon, followed by eastern parts of the state in the evening. This frontal boundary will produce further windy conditions over western, and especially northwestern, North Dakota. In regard to dewpoints, aforementioned southerly winds will bring brief higher dewpoints, and therefore, somewhat higher relative humidity values. Strong winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, combined with dry conditions, will likely produce critical fire weather conditions for most of western through central ND Monday. One thing that could further complicate matters is that there is a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms in central ND Monday afternoon and evening. Further enhanced and erratic winds are possible with any showers or thunderstorms that develop.

Winds will diminish Monday night over most areas west of Highway 83, though remain breezy along and east. Very windy conditions out of the northwest with gusts up to 50 mph are then expected Tuesday afternoon for the eastern half of the state. Weaker winds to as low as 15 to 20 mph near the ND/MT border are forecast further west. Similar to Monday, minimum relative humidity will tank in western North Dakota, though remain a bit higher in the east. Combined, these dry and windy conditions will likely result in further critical fire weather conditions for much of the state. Winds will rapidly diminish Tuesday evening with the combination of encroaching high pressure and a loss of diurnal heating.

Wednesday through the end of the week will see continued mostly dry conditions. Minimum relative humidity across western through central ND will remain low with the lowest values consistently west of Highway 83. Periodically windy conditions are also expected, though confidence in just how strong the winds become decreases towards the tail end of the week with significant differences in the cluster analysis Thursday. Low chances for a few showers and thunderstorms also enter the picture at the end of the week. With all this, additional days of critical fire weather conditions for at least parts of the area are possible to finish out the latter half of the week.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-033-035>037- 046>048-050-051-055>060. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>048-050-051. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ031-032-040>044-061-062.