textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 70s and 80s today, warming into the mid 80s to mid 90s and becoming windy this the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over western North Dakota Saturday night.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms over much of western and central North Dakota Sunday evening.

- A more active severe weather pattern looks to continue next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Quiet weather continues over the area. No changes needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The few showers and thunderstorms that were over our area have pushed into eastern North Dakota. Remainder of evening should stay quiet.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week with periodic showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon should remain sub-severe. However, near daily chances for severe weather are possible somewhere in the state this weekend through the middle of next week.

For today, a couple weak shortwaves observed in water vapor imagery are passing through the forecast area. This is helping to force isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms which should remain mostly east of Highway 83. The RAP does prog moderate instability and shear. However, mid-level lapse rates are very marginal due to relatively strong mid-level capping. Therefore, it's not impossible that a strong storm develops east, but severe weather remains unlikely.

Mostly dry conditions are expected during the day Saturday. However, a lowly amplified trough will dig into the west CONUS. Shortwave energy off this trough is expected to lift through Montana/Wyoming Saturday evening with fairly strong WAA over western North Dakota. Mid-level moisture is focused mostly west of North Dakota, though an enhanced near-surface moisture surge is expected near the ND/MT border as surface low develops in eastern Montana/Wyoming. This will result in moderate MUCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg with a somewhat tall skinny cape profile. The overall thinking remains similar to yesterday that there is a severe weather threat for western North Dakota. However, it's one of those cases where it will likely develop in central/eastern Montana first and there is uncertainty on whether or not it will hold together as it advances towards western ND. Will continue to advertise ping pong ball sized hail should a more clustered mode develop, along with 60 mph winds as the primary threats.

Sunday is still expected to be the more favorable day for severe weather this weekend. Aforementioned surface low will scoot into western ND. Combined with high pressure over the southeast CONUS, this will surge Gulf moisture back into the state. This may result in instability in excess of 3000 J/kg, especially east of Hwy 83. Mid-level trough will also begin lifting through the state, while associated cold front will gradually slide west to east across the Dakotas. That said, there are two major factors that contribute to uncertainty. First, deep layer shear looks limited in the eastern half of the state where the highest instability is progged. Second, a very strong cap is expected for most of the day in most locations. It seems the frontal boundary should be strong enough to overcome this capping, but it may also limit the duration and coverage of any severe weather that develops. Other than any lingering showers and thunderstorms in the morning, Monday should be mostly dry. After which, showers and thunderstorms, along with potential severe weather, return for the middle of the week.

This weekend will be warm with gusty southerly winds. Winds could approach advisory criteria Saturday especially for western ND, and Sunday especially for central ND. Sunday will see highs in the mid 80s west to mid 90s central and east. With afternoon dewpoints progged to be around 60 degrees or less, heat indices should generally remain below advisory criteria, but will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Gusty south to southeasterly winds are expected to develop on Saturday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.