textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend above normal for this weekend, along with breezy daytime winds.

- Rain showers, with a few thunderstorms, will be found at times this weekend into early next week.

- Active weather pattern continues next week, along with near normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Surface low developing in Montana will bring warm and breezy southerly flow today. High temperatures today in the warmer areas will be in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s, while cloudy areas see highs in the 50s and 60s. Some near advisory sustained winds are possible as a result, although confidence is not high enough to issue any wind products given a lack of mixing with cloudy skies and a warm southerly flow. This southerly flow will also bring increased lower level moisture to central and especially eastern portions today. This could result in some shower or drizzle activity in these areas. Meanwhile, dry conditions look to be found during the day in the west, lowering afternoon RH values into the 20s and 30s. With the breezier winds expected in the central and east, the fire weather threat will remain limited today. This evening through tonight, weak instability combined with the advancing surface low could bring some showers and thunderstorms to western and central portions. Low clouds could continue in the east, perhaps bringing more chances for light rain, drizzle, or patchy fog. Mild lows tonight in the 40s are expected. Surface low continues to move through Sunday, with a cold front advancing behind this low later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. The result will be continued mild temperatures for most areas, along with chances for showers and thunderstorms especially in the northern half of the state. Severe weather looks limited this weekend given the lack of shear, stronger instability, and overall lift. However, SPC has a broad general risk of thunderstorms today and Sunday. As this surface low moves through Sunday some breezy northwest winds may also develop. Surface front advances southward then stalls Sunday night through Monday, while a weak shortwave is found aloft. This will bring continued chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. Front will cool temperatures slightly for Monday, with highs forecast in the 40s and 50s north to the 60s south.

This first trough looks to push out of the area Tuesday or Wednesday. Given the uncertainty on timing some PoPs linger in the NBM through at least Tuesday, diminishing somewhat on Wednesday. A warming trend may also be found through at least Wednesday. NBM has highs peaking in the 60s on Wednesday, although large temperature spreads indicate perhaps warmer temperatures are possible. Westerly flow behind the exiting wave on Wednesday could bring some lower RH values, although winds look relatively light at this time. Clusters then indicate a Pacific trough could move into the region later in the week. This looks to bring cooler temperatures with more chances for rain and snow showers. Winds with this next trough may also be breezy later next week, although signals for strong winds are currently not showing up in the ECMWF EFI values.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through tonight, and in western North Dakota through the forecast period. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over south central and eastern North Dakota on Saturday. KBIS may be near the edge of the low ceilings. Some light rain could fall near KJMS and surrounding areas late Saturday morning through the afternoon, with no visibility restrictions expected at this time. Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kts through the forecast period, increasing closer to 20 kts and becoming gusty across central and eastern North Dakota by Saturday afternoon. A period of low level wind shear is forecast at most terminals late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds diminish somewhat Saturday evening. Low clouds could linger in central and especially eastern portions, continuing MVFR to perhaps some IFR ceilings.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.