textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy with warming temperatures today. Patchy drifting snow possible.

- Active weather pattern continues with near daily low to medium chances for snow over many portions of the area.

- Temperatures remain near average for Friday, then significantly cool for Saturday. Temperatures gradually warm to start the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 940 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The warm front is moving into central North Dakota now, with it low stratus has formed. In a few areas in the north and central patchy fog has developed. Other than that no changes were made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Warmer air continues to work its way into the area, with temperatures continuing to gradually climb through western and central North Dakota. No changes needed to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 455 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Current surface analysis places high over the Midwest nudging into the central plains, while low remains over Saskatchewan, with trough dipping through eastern Montana/northeast Wyoming. Warm front with this system continues to lift into our area with temperatures now holding steady or climbing a little bit. Upper level analysis places northwest flow over our area with a variety of weak short waves noted upstream.

For today, warm front will continue its lift through the area with high temperatures returning to the mid 20s to mid 30s. With that said, southwesterly to westerly winds will become breezy as surface low passes through Manitoba on its way into Ontario, which could lead to some drifting snow.

Tonight into Friday, the first of the aforementioned short waves/clippers drops southeast through the flow and over our area bringing low to moderate chances (~20 to 50 percent) for light snow, though any accumulations should be quite limited. Winds may be a little breezy behind the cold front, but the coldest air with this system does not come until later Friday into Friday night.

Cold air settles in for Saturday into Saturday night as surface high settles into the northern plains. High temperatures are expected to be in the single digits above zero along and east of the Missouri River, and not much warmer elsewhere. In addition, Saturday may see some additional light snow, with low to medium chances (~20 to 50 percent) mainly over southern locations. Saturday night will see almost all locations below zero for lows, with most locations east of the Missouri dropping into the teens below zero.

Sunday will see a very modest rebound in temperatures, with warmer air pushing in more in earnest to start the work week. Temperature forecast then gets a bit sketchy as we approach mid-week, as latest NBM analysis shows quite a spread in temperature forecasts from Tuesday night onward, generally a 15 to 20 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile. Unsettled pattern continues the daily chances for snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 455 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Areas of IFR to MVFR ceilings will continue this morning over parts of central North Dakota into the James River Valley. These low ceilings will move off to the east later this morning. In addition, later this morning low ceilings will again move into parts of northwest and north central North Dakota, spreading through the area this evening and overnight. IFR ceilings will become widespread tonight, possibly dipping to LIFR levels at times. Also, light snow will spread through the area tonight, reducing visibility at times.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.