textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- The combination of lower humidity values and breezy northwest wind may bring a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions in the northwest this afternoon.

- Dry weather with high temperatures above normal this weekend.

- Mainly dry weather conditions continue through much of next week, with continued above normal temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Dense fog has diminished for the most part, although some patchy fog remains in eastern LaMoure and Dickey counties. With a lack of dense fog coverage and generally improving conditions expected through the early morning hours, decided to cancel the remaining Dense Fog Advisory. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Areas of fog will continue to be found ahead of a clipper system this morning, mainly in the far south central and portions of the southeast. The mentioned clipper system should gradually erode this fog away this morning. For now maintained the Dense Fog Advisory for Emmons, Logan, and McIntosh counties, while expanding it eastward to include LaMoure and Dickey counties, through the mid morning hours. The mentioned clipper system will move across southern Canada today, with the surface trough clipping northern ND. Overall this will be a dry system, which will bring warm, dry, and breezy westerly winds. Forecast highs today are in the 50s to lower 60s, although abundant high clouds may limit the upper end of this forecast. Decided to blend in NBM90th for winds today due to strong 850 mb winds combined with a brief period of pressure rises and cold air advection this afternoon. These could some near advisory level winds this afternoon, especially in the north, although confidence isn't high enough for a wind highlight at this time. These stronger winds combined with lowering humidity values could bring a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions as well this afternoon, mainly in northwestern portions. Winds diminish tonight, although dry air in place should limit the fog threat. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A weak front will drape across the east on Sunday bringing slightly cooler temperatures in the 50s to these areas. Meanwhile, a steady southerly flow in the west will bring continued warm temperatures in the 60s. Another weak clipper system looks to move across southern Canada for Sunday, although mainly dry conditions are again expected. Dry conditions combined with a steady westerly flow will again limit the fog threat for Sunday night. Overnight lows will be mild and near 40 degrees.

Zonal to northwest flow will be found to start the week on Monday. This continues mild and dry conditions. Breezy westerly winds may also be found as a result. Some lowering of RH on Monday could perhaps bring at least some increased fire weather concerns, especially in the southwest. More northwesterly flow is then forecast for Tuesday which may cool temperatures slightly and diminish the winds. Dry conditions are again expected to persist. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak disturbance moves through in the northwest flow which could bring some low chances for rain showers. Breezy winds may also be found with this system, especially in the southwest. An amplified ridge is still forecast to move across the interior US later next week. This will continue dry conditions across the forecast area. How far east this ridge moves in will greatly determine temperatures next week. NBM temperature spreads are quite large given the eastward uncertainty. A more eastward movement would bring warmer temperatures, while a stalled ridge brings cooler northwest flow and more normal like temperatures. Forecast is in the middle currently, yet did lower slightly from previous forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with some mid to high clouds at times. Some lingering fog may be found this morning across far southeastern portions, although should remain away from TAF sites. A breezy westerly wind is expected to develop today. Ahead of this wind will be some low level wind shear this morning. Winds diminish tonight, although some low level wind shear may be found this evening into the early overnight hours.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.