textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm will continue to impact the Northern Plains through late this evening, with light snow lingering across central and eastern portions of the state.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will continue through the end of the week. There is also a chance (50 to 80%) of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday.

- Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected for next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Mainly light snow continues to linger across south central and southeastern portions of the state. Snow has for the most part moved out of Sheridan County, and will exit most of Burleigh county in the coming hour. Thus have ended the Winter Weather Advisories in these counties. The remainder of the ongoing winter highlights have been extended until 1 AM CDT as mainly light snow will linger perhaps bringing continued reduced visibility and travel impacts. Otherwise look for a mostly cloudy night tonight with lows in the 20s. There could be some patchy fog, although winds look to remain elevated in the central and east while western areas see more dry air move in. For now left fog mention out of the forecast given the uncertainty.

UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Main update was deciding on current winter weather highlights. Snow continues to fall across central and eastern portions of the state, although should go on a diminishing trend through this evening. There still remains visibility reports of a mile or less across portions of the CWA with some travel impacts also being reported. Thus decided to extend the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning to areas east of the Missouri River until 10 PM CDT. Areas west of the Missouri River along with McLean county are not getting quite as much lingering snow currently, thus allowed the Winter Weather Advisory in these areas expire. Will continue to monitor for any changes and adjust these highlights as needed through this evening. Otherwise, just made some minor changes to PoPs based on current radar trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Currently, last round of moisture continues across the Northern Plains this afternoon, as enhanced mid/upper level forcing associated with the base of the mid level trough and enhanced left exit region upper jet dynamics are over the region. Aforementioned forcing, coupled with a continued thermal upglide flow and an associated TROWAL, will all bring continued light to moderate snow to eastern and at times central areas of the state today in the form of wrap around snow. Strong moisture fetch originating out of the Gulf of America would normally bring heavier precip/snow amounts, though much of this moisture will be used up be strong/severe convective activity today across the Mississippi/Ohio River valleys. Still, areas within the warning (James River Valley) will see in excess of 6 inches of snow by the end of this event, with already a few reports of 6-8 inches.

Current system lifts northeast tonight, ending precipitation from west to east as forcing rapidly decreases. A quasi-zonal flow aloft will be in place for Thursday, maintaining cooler temperatures and variable cloud cover. This will then be followed by a split flow pattern developing Thursday night, with a northern stream wave bringing another round of light precipitation (mainly in the form of snow (though some rain mixed in)) late tomorrow through the day Friday.

After Friday and into next week, confidence is high for dry weather a warming trend as flow aloft is projected to transition to upper level ridging allowing mild Pacific air into the Great Plains region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Linger low clouds and snow will continue to bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions through this evening. Snow is overall expected to diminish late this evening, although lower clouds may persist through the night. This could bring MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings. Thursday will see lingering SCT to BKN skies with MVFR to low VFR ceilings. The next round of rain and snow may enter into the west late in this TAF period, then push across the state Thursday night through Friday from west to east. This could impact sites from about KXWA to KDIK and westward. Placed a PROB30 group for snow in KXWA, with confidence not high enough for any precipitation mention at KDIK.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ023-025- 036-046. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ037-047- 048-050-051.