textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend to well above average temperatures is favored through early next week. Temperatures are then favored to cool back closer to normal by the end of the week.

- Dry through early next week, with low to medium chances for precipitation returning mid to late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low stratus and fog lingers across western North Dakota at the time of this mid morning update. Visibilities around 1/4 or less linger across portions the far southwest, where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through the late morning. Have made some minor tweaks to the sky grids by blending in the latest satellite obs, otherwise the forecast remains in good shape at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Dense fog remains confined to Bowman County. Observed trends and rapid-refresh guidance continue to show that the dense fog could expand northward into Slope County, but is very unlikely to expand eastward. Therefore, Hettinger and Adams Counties have been removed from the Dense Fog Advisory. No other forecast changes are needed for this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

An omega blocking pattern persists over the CONUS early this morning, with the ridge axis situated over the Great Plains. This positioning allows for strong low level southerly return flow over the Northern Plains. A strong isobaric gradient between surface high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley and lee cyclogenesis along the eastern slopes of the Rockies has maintained breezy southeast winds across western and central North Dakota through the night. A corridor of enhanced low level moisture is maintained along the MT/ND border, mostly as a low stratus deck. But dense fog has recently returned to Bowman County after a middle of the night absence. Latest rapid-refresh guidance shows high probabilities of dense fog spreading northward into Slope County, but not much further eastward into Hettinger or Adams Counties. Will keep the Dense Fog Advisory as is for now, but the eastern 2 counties may be allowed to end early. The low stratus and fog should dissolve later this morning, but additional higher-based stratus could develop over central North Dakota later this afternoon and evening. Look for a mixture of sun and clouds today, with highs forecast in the lower 40s east to lower and mid 50s far west. Windy conditions are expected through this afternoon, out of the southeast around 20-30 mph and gusting to 30-40 mph.

From tonight into Sunday, a shortwave will eject from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains, undercutting the omega ridge. Meanwhile, a Canadian shortwave is forecast to eject from the Rockies into the prairie provinces. This will dampen the omega blocking and loosen the MSLP gradient, but maintain broad upper level ridging between the Great Plains and Mississippi River Valley. This leads to a Sunday forecast with lighter winds, more plentiful sunshine, and warmer high temperatures around 50 degrees east to 60 degrees southwest. The upper ridge is forecast to slowly translate eastward early next week, leaving the Northern Plains under a southwest flow regime. Dry weather is expected through Tuesday, with well above average high temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s on Monday, slightly cooling to the upper 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday.

Forecast confidence is high that a western CONUS trough will eject into the Northern and Central Plains on Wednesday, but the strength of the wave and evolution of the surface pattern remain uncertain. There is broad consensus in lee cyclogenesis near the Black Hills early Wednesday, with the surface low tracking northeastward towards Lake Superior by midday Thursday. This would generally place most of North Dakota in the wrap-around deformation zone trailing the surface low, which is forecast to drag a cooler air mass into the region. Mid level forcing could take the form of a split flow regime, and there is latitudinal uncertainty in the northern stream. Furthermore, 00Z cluster analysis shows uncertainty in the progression of the wave. The total ensemble probability for measurable precipitation through Thursday afternoon is medium to high (around 60-80 percent), and probabilities for exceeding a tenth of an inch range from around 30 percent southeast to 50 percent northwest. But there is one cluster showing a notably drier solution compared to the other three. The most likely timing of precipitation between sunset Wednesday and sunrise Thursday combined with the colder air advecting in introduces low chances for accumulating snow (at least 0.1 inch), ranging from around 10 percent in central North Dakota to 30 percent along the Montana border.

Another deep trough is forecast over the western CONUS by Friday. From there, its evolution remains quite unclear. Two GEFS-heavy clusters composing around 45 percent of the total ensemble membership open up the wave, allowing strong synoptic forcing to spread over the Northern Plains by late Friday. The other 2 clusters that carry a majority of ECMWF and Canadian ensemble members form a cutoff low over the Great Basin. The former solution would favor a classic Colorado low that could impact the broader region Friday through Saturday. The latter solution would be more likely to keep Friday dry. But by late Saturday, the cutoff low scenario itself splits into two distinct outcomes: one that brings a stronger low into the Northern and Central High Plains and another that dissolves the cutoff low over the Central Rockies. The former of those 2 would be more likely to produce an impactful low pressure system over the weekend, while the latter would keep the highest QPF south of the state. It remains far too soon to draw any conclusions about the potential for impactful winter weather late next week into the weekend, and it is far from certain that all or even a majority of the precipitation would fall as snow. But even at a Day 7+ forecast time range, snow threshold probabilities are the highest we have seen so far this season, with the NBM showing a 20 to 40 percent chance for at least 1 inch of snow Friday through Saturday night. The NBM maximum and minimum temperature distributions do shift progressively cooler through the end of next week, and while 25th percentile highs are mostly still above freezing, 75th percentile lows are mostly below freezing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

MVFR to LIFR ceilings persist across far western North Dakota, with KXWA and KDIK near the eastern edge of the low stratus. VFR conditions are prevailing elsewhere. The low ceilings in the far west are forecast to lift or clear no later than early this afternoon. Fog could also reduce visibility in far western North Dakota this morning, but this is more likely to impact areas to the southwest of KDIK. Central North Dakota could see low VFR to MVFR ceilings develop later today, but confidence is not high enough to mention this in the TAFs at this time. Southeast winds will remain breezy through the forecast period, with gusts as high as 25-35 kts through this afternoon. Low level wind shear will impact parts of central North Dakota this morning, including at KMOT and KBIS.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for NDZ040-043.