textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat through Monday evening, with high temperatures and heat index values in the upper 90s to near 110, and overnight lows in the 70s.

- Cooler north mid to late week, but still hot across southern North Dakota.

- Dry today through Tuesday daytime, then low to medium (20 to 40%) chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- Near daily low (20%) chances for thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Temperatures are slowly starting to cool back down to the 70s as the sun sets across The Peace Garden State. No major changes to the forecast this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Other than the extreme heat, quiet weather continues. Most sites across the west and south warmed up to around 108 degrees!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

An upper level ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern across the Plains and the Rockies. This has brought widespread hot temperatures into the Northern Plains. The low level thermal ridge is centered across eastern Montana. This will cause temperatures to warm across western North Dakota to around 106 to 109 degrees this afternoon with the central and northern half of the state seeing 100 to 105. The central and eastern half of the state has dew points in the 60s to lower 70s leading to heat index values of 105 to 110. There is also a high chance of breaking record high temperature for Bismarck, Dickinson, Williston, and Minot for today and tomorrow. Tonight low temperatures are forecast to drop down around 70s potentially breaking record high low temperatures for the same locations.

Hot temperatures will continue into the start of the week. The low level thermal ridge will slide eastward as the upper high centers over the Northern Plains. High temperatures Monday are forecast to be around 100 to 105 with the hottest spots being the southwest and the south central. A cold front is forecast to sag across the northwest leading to high temperatures in the 90s for Crosby. The upper level ridge will dampen this week across the Canadian Prairies. This will lead to multiple waves traversing across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. There are low chances of showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the week into the weekend across the northern half of the state. The upper level ridge will persist across the the Plains through the weekend. 100 degree temperatures are forecast across the southern half of the state through the middle of the week. After that, above normal in the upper 80s to upper 90s are forecast to persist into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Wind shear across most of the state starting late this evening through early Monday morning. Winds will continue from the south/southwest up to 30kts through the period as well.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037- 040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.