textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph develop this morning behind a cold front. The winds will continue into this evening before gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast tonight.

- Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night into Friday morning, especially over western locations.

- Notably milder temperatures to end the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Strong cold front continues southeast across the region. Main changes with this update was to modify sky cover to better time the arrival of low level stratus surging in behind the FROPA. I also opted to go coverage for showers (isolated/scattered) for this afternoon and evening. Wind headlines on track.

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Cold front has now pushed through western and much of north central North Dakota, with northwest winds increasing in its wake. Going forecast remains in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Current surface analysis places low over western Manitoba with cold front dropping down through western North Dakota into northwest South Dakota, while high settles through Alberta into western/central Montana. Upper level analysis places low over Colorado, with northern stream short wave now pushing through Saskatchewan nudging into the Northern Plains.

For today, aforementioned front will continue its progression through the state with winds increasing in its wake given the pressure gradient and cold air advection. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that ongoing mention of gusts to 55 mph in the Wind Advisory remain reasonable across the area. The only change to the headline was to extend the expiration of the James River Valley and parts of south central North Dakota into the overnight hours as winds look to be slow to diminish over that area. Along with the wind, expect to see a few light rain showers in the wake of the front with the passing short wave. Expect this could lead to some brief enhancement of wind gusts as light showers pass through.

As we go through tonight, high slides into western North Dakota and skies clear, which will allow temperatures to drop off to below freezing. The question is how far east the skies will clear out over central North dakota allowing temperatures to drop off. Therefore, will hold off on any freeze headlines for now until we can get another look at this later today.

On Friday, surface high slides off to the south/east, while upper ridging to the west slides easterly. This will allow temperatures to rebound, though highs will still be a bit below average.

Upper ridge continues its easterly progression going into Saturday, when temperatures will climb well above average, with mid 60s to mid 70s through the area. Seasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions continue into the first part of the upcoming week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A passing cold front will result in strong northwesterly winds developing during the day, which will linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front. Winds will diminish and ceilings will improve late this evening into the overnight hours from northwest to southeast.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044- 055>062. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037- 046>048-050-051.