textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures to end the workweek, with near record highs today and especially Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures this weekend and into early next week.

- Dry conditions through tonight, then only low chances for showers west and north Friday afternoon through Friday night.

- Breezy to windy Friday and Saturday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions southwest Friday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 930 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Scattered mid level clouds linger over portions of central North Dakota, otherwise clear and calm weather is found across the forecast area at the time of this mid morning update. No adjustments to the forecast were necessary at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

A little bit of mid level cloudiness is lifting northeast across the forecast area. Otherwise clear conditions across western and central ND this Thursday morning. No changes needed to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remain over the central portion of the U.S. through Friday. This will bring a couple of unseasonably warm days to western and central ND. Near record highs are possible today, and especially Friday, before much cooler air arrives for the weekend and into the first half of next week.

Today will be breezy at times and Friday will be breezy to windy with south to southeast winds across the forecast area both days. Forecast highs are in the 70s today and 70s to lower 80s southwest on Friday. If these forecast highs hold, Dickinson and Bismarck could both see a record high Friday. That's after a possible record warm overnight low temperature Friday morning as well. We utilized a blend of NBM and NBM90 both today and Friday for forecast highs.

Dry conditions are expected today through tonight. Friday may bring a passing shower, but most will remain dry. Pops Friday are pretty much nil across the area during the day, with a little better chance of some wrap around moisture making it into the northwest Friday night. The threat for thunder looks to be lower than it was yesterday. Although it can not be completely ruled out, will not carry a mention of thunder in the forecast Friday.

The main forecast concerns will be fire weather Friday afternoon, then wind highlights may be needed Friday night and Saturday.

An upper level trough will lift through the Northern Rockies Friday and close off over central Saskatchewan by 12Z Saturday and then track east into Manitoba during the day Saturday. On Friday, surface cyclogenesis takes place over then northern High Plains, with good model agreement in a surface low depicted along the Montana/North Dakota border by 00 UTC Saturday. A south to southeast surface flow over ND during the day, is forecast to turn southwest over the Mondak region Friday afternoon, ahead of the surface low, advecting much drier air into southwest ND. Surface winds are not all that strong but there is an 850 mb jet propagating into southwest ND and with strong daytime heating, we should see some steep lapse rates and a good mixdown potential for a few hours Friday afternoon. This scenario has been pretty consistent for the past couple of days, but it's a pretty small area of southwest ND that could be impacted. If the system slows just a bit, the southwest may miss out on the good mixdown winds Friday afternoon. The trend has been there long enough though, to introduce some near critical fire weather conditions friday afternoon. For now, will keep with near critical "possible". If the trend does hold, a small area (mainly portions of Bowman and Slope Counties) could see a few hours of critical fire weather conditions. For now will go with near critical possible and include the surrounding counties as well.

The system moves quickly northeast into southern Canada by Saturday morning, and continues to intensify during the day as it lifts into central/northern Manitiba by Saturday evening. This will bring a strong, but dry cold front through the sate Friday night. There is a strong fall-rise couplet that lifts across the forecast area Friday night, along with a period of strong cold advection at the surface and aloft, and a period of unidirectional winds through 850 mb and steep lapse rates to around 850-800 mb. Bufkit soundings indicate winds around 45-52 knots at the top of the boundary layer, with a reasonably well mixed boundary layer. The question is whether or not these strong winds can mix down to the surface. During the peak heating of the day, this would be a much easier question. With the timing being during the overnight and early morning hours, the strong cold advection, gradient winds and isallobaric component will need to overcome the tendency for the boundary layer to decouple. We've got a while yet to decide on any headlines, but would expect a Wind Advisory will be needed for portions of the forecast area (west and north central favored) Friday night. A High Wind Warning can not be rule out either. Another issue will be how long to continue any headlines on Saturday. The main push will be Friday night. The southwest portion of the state will be the first to see a weakening of gradient winds and cold advection. However, with the strong surface low spinning over Canada, northern and eastern portions of the forecast area could see a bit of a lull in the winds Saturday morning, with winds picking up again in the afternoon. Certainly something we will need to monitor. For now will increase our messaging for winds Friday night into Saturday. We also blended in some higher winds Friday night into Saturday morning.

After Saturday, we remain cool into next week. A closed upper low to our south and another upper low to our west will need to be monitored. However, at this time the NBM is only depicting some low pops early to mid workweek as there remains a lot of model uncertainty during this timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 930 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected through most of the 12Z TAF period. There is a low probability for some low stratus over portions of the area Friday morning. However at this time probabilities are low (NBM 10-15%) and with a low predictability as to where clouds would develop, will not add any stratus to TAF with this issuance. Will continue to monitor though. Otherwise mainly just some mid and high clouds through the period. South to southeast surface flow generally 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.