textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog over parts of south central North Dakota this morning.

- Rain likely today across parts of south central North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- Slightly above average temperatures through the end of the workweek, becoming more noticeably above average this weekend and into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Visibility has deteriorated in Bismarck, Mandan, and the surrounding areas. Therefore, issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am CDT for eastern Morton, eastern Sioux, Burleigh, and Emmons counties. Patchy dense fog likely persists east of Burleigh and Emmons County as well, though some improvement has been observed in the James River Valley. Therefore, also issued an SPS until 10 am CDT for counties directly east of the advisory, including those in the James River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Patchy fog early this morning could become locally dense at times in south central and southeastern North Dakota, though should improve by mid to late morning. Light precipitation will likely develop this morning and into the afternoon over south central North Dakota, including the James River Valley, as another shortwave slides through the Dakotas. In this case, thermal profiles will remain plenty warm to ensure precipitation falls in the form of rain. For the most part, rain should be light, though a narrow corridor of a tenth or two of an inch is possible. As this system moves off to the east, remaining low to mid-level stratus will also clear off from west to east.

Once any precipitation ends in the south central today, mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday night as dry, quasi- zonal flow aloft prevails through Friday. During this timeframe, an upper Pacific low off southwestern Canada will gradually churn towards the Pacific Northwest. By Friday night, flow aloft starts to become more southwesterly as this low gradually enters over the northwest CONUS and associated trough begins to amplify. Come Saturday, low rain chances begin to enter the forecast. However, models are starting to favor a slower progression that holds off more widespread rain chances until Sunday night into early next week. Furthermore, a split flow pattern is becoming more favored to develop, which would likely keep the heaviest precipitation south and possibly also north of the forecast area. Still, uncertainty remains in the evolution of this pattern, including what happens with a strong blocking high at the surface that will travel across the Northern Plains to finish out the workweek, and then through the Great Lakes Region and into the northeast CONUS this weekend.

High temperatures for the remainder of the week and into early next week are favored to become above average most days, for most locations. This translates to highs frequently ranging from the 40s north to 50s south to finish out the workweek, and mostly in the 50s everywhere this weekend. A few 60 degree readings are also possible at times mainly in the southern half of the state. Seasonable lows mostly in the 20s to low 30s are expected tonight through Thursday night, though will warm into the 30s and 40s for most locations by Saturday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low-level stratus and dense fog are present over south central North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Conditions should improve later this morning, though that may partially be a result of light rain developing over a similar area. Rain and low-level stratus over south central ND will exit from west to east later this morning and into the early afternoon. A relatively narrow band of MVFR stratus is also entering far northwestern ND. This may impact KXWA for a couple hours this morning. Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds are then on tap for tonight. This could lead to another round of fog development, though confidence wasn't high enough to add fog into any TAFs for tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ035-046- 060-062.