textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain ending this morning.

- Gradual warming trend through the upcoming workweek, with highs mostly in the 60s on Monday increasing to the 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Wednesday night, otherwise mostly dry through the workweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

a persistent band of sprinkles/light showers remains over northern portions of the forecast area. Activity has diminished in intensity over the past hour or so. Isolated sprinkles continue to dissipated over the far south central. For the update, went with a broad area of sprinkles through mid morning over much of central ND and kept a small area of sprinkles mid to late morning. Day shift can nix if this precip dissipates. Also made some small adjustments to sky cover based on latest satellite imagery.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The upper level low that has been hanging around all weekend will exit the area today with weak high pressure at the surface and aloft over the area today.

Currently, scattered light showers were situated over the far south central portion of the state. Although the showers were propagating westward around the mid-upper level circulation, the entire system continues to track off to the east. In the north, a shortwave impulse was producing shower activity along the Highway 2 corridor in northwest/north central ND. There have been a few areas of higher reflectivity (showers) and Minot has seen some measurable precipitation so will mention some isolated to scattered showers prior to 12Z, with isolated sprinkles this morning.

Skies were mostly cloudy and so far there has been little if any development of fog. Still have a mention of some patchy fog in the far north and far south through mid morning and hoping this will hold. There does look to be some fog over southern Canada and if skies clear in the far north, could still see some patchy dense fog develop. Will monitor.

For today. Look for mostly cloudy to cloudy skies this morning with clouds decreasing during the day. It will be cool again, with highs mainly in the 60s. Clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Dry on Tuesday with temperatures once again mainly in the 60s. We will see increasing southerly surface winds Tuesday and Wednesday, strongest in the west Tuesday, then central ND Wednesday. This is due to increasing gradient winds between blocking high pressure to our east and developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night a shortwave trough tracks southwest to northeast across the forecast area bringing medium to high chances for showers to most of western and central ND. Currently the NBM probability of at least a quarter inch of rain from 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday is highest (60 to 70%) over south central ND, and tapers to 30-40% over southwest ND. The lowest probabilities (less than 20%) are currently over northwest ND, an then increase to 40 to 60% in north central ND. We will see if this placement changes as we get closer to Wednesday, but at this time it looks like a pretty broad area of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to track across the forecast area.

Upper level ridging then builds over the forecast area late in the work week and this is when we expect to see a noticeable warm-up as temperatures climb into the lower 80s over portions of the west, with 70s over central ND. Dry conditions are in store for Thursday and at least the first half of Friday. An approaching upper level northern stream trough and southern stream shortwave trough could bring low to medium precipitation chances later Friday and into the first half of the weekend. It does appear that temperatures will cool a little over the weekend, but will remain seasonable, in the 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 12Z TAF period and expect VFR conditions today and this evening at TAF sites. There may be some MVFR-IFR ceilings in the far southwest through this morning, before lifting/dissipating by early afternoon. Southwest ND may also see low stratus return later tonight in the 06-12Z timeframe. In general though, expect decreasing VFR clouds today from north to south. Expect an east to southeast surface flow 5 to 15 kts through the 12Z TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.