textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog could return to southwest and south central North Dakota early Thursday morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above normal this weekend and into early next week.

- Low chances for rain this weekend, then medium to high chances for rain on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Changes for this update were mainly to adjust sky cover across the north to match observed and RAP modeled trends, and fog coverage based on HRRR/RAP trends. The highest chances for fog are in southwest North Dakota, but patchy fog could develop as far east as the Missouri River Valley. Overnight/Thursday morning minimum temperatures were also lowered to the south of the low stratus.

UPDATE Issued at 1005 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The latest NBM data is currently loading into the forecast. Hi- res models have now backed down on the fog potential. Timing has been pushed back to 10z now and is mostly now centered on the southwest. The grids have been adjusted to show this.

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A cold front across the northern half of the state keeps low stratus around this evening. There is still a signal for fog forming overnight across most of the state.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Cloudy skies from a passing low will be found across the north for much of tonight, while mainly clear skies are found south. Some breezy northwest winds may also continue into this evening from a passing cold front. Tonight, lows will be cooler and generally in the 20s. Generally dryer air is forecast to move in, although diminished winds and some lingering low level moisture could return fog tonight into Thursday morning. Weak ridging aloft will bring mainly dry conditions conditions for Thursday. There are some indications a weak vort max could ride over this ridge later in the day, perhaps bringing some isolated rain showers. For now the forecast remains dry. Temperatures will be slightly cooler yet near normal for Thursday behind todays cold front. Ridging builds further for Friday, bringing another day of dry conditions and mild temperatures. Some breezy southerly winds may also return in the west later Friday as the ridge moves eastward.

Friday night through Halloween will overall see mild conditions with limited chances for precipitation. As the ridge pulls away southerly flow will bring increased low level moisture to the area with broad southwest trough like flow aloft. The result could bring isolated rain showers, however NBM PoPs continue to trend downward. The increased southerly flow and a weak warm front could still bring mostly cloudy skies for Saturday, with perhaps some mist, patchy fog, and drizzle at times. Temperatures Saturday are forecast in the 50s for most areas, although may be dependent on cloud cover. Similar mild conditions with lower clouds could be found on Sunday, with some increased southerly flow. Precipitation chances again look low, although a repeat of patchy fog, mist, and drizzle may be possible. Highs could enter into the 60s for Sunday, with morning lows in the 40s. Clusters still indicate a broad cutoff low will move across the central plains early next week. A split surface low could provide for increased chances for mainly rain to start the week, then most clusters have a large low in the plains taking over. This would limit precipitation chances, while bringing some cooler conditions by mid next week. Some breezy winds may also be found during the progression of this disturbance, mainly to start the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR ceilings will continue across northern North Dakota through tonight, with clearing or lifting to VFR expected Thursday morning. KXWA could remain just on the edge of the low stratus through the night. Elsewhere, freezing fog could develop across southwest and south central North Dakota early to mid Thursday morning. The highest probability for persistent visibility reductions is in the southwest, including at KDIK. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals Thursday afternoon and evening. Mostly light and variable winds are expected, but west-northwest winds around 10 kts are possible overnight across the north, and easterly winds could approach 10 kts in southwest and south central North Dakota Thursday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.