textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very windy conditions are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon, with northwest winds gusting up to 65 mph possible.

- Light snow showers are likely Thursday evening through Friday morning. The highest chances (70 to 90 percent) are along and east of Highway 83. Significantly reduced visibility is possible while snow is falling.

- Friday through this weekend, expect cooler temperatures with below average temperatures northeast to near average temperatures southwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

This afternoon, the Northern Plains was under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft, placed between a Hudson Bay low and ridging across the western CONUS. Low-level moisture has been stuck underneath the west side of a surface high that is centered over the eastern Dakotas, with a persistent stratus deck across much of the forecast area today. Throughout the morning and early afternoon we've occasionally seen visibilities dip down due to patchy fog, and there have also been some instances of flurries, but otherwise a relatively benign day with highs from the teens east to the mid 30s southwest.

Temperatures stay seasonably mild tonight as low-level warm air advection continues to push into the region. A band of frontogenesis is projected to move east, with low POPs emerging in the north central this evening. Chances for precipitation expands south through the evening hours, encompassing the James River Valley, although the bulk of precipitation is expected to stay in eastern North Dakota outside of the forecast area.

Forecast soundings start out cold enough to favor snow as the dominant precipitation type, but as the aforementioned warm air advection introduces a shallow warm nose, there is potential for a transition to either freezing rain or possibly sleet, depending on the depth and height of the warm nose. QPF amounts look light regardless, however, so would expect any precipitation that falls to be relatively low impact.

More significant forecast concerns begin Thursday as a more impactful upper shortwave and attendant surface low begin to move through the southern Canadian Prairies. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for all of western and central North Dakota from early Thursday afternoon through the day Friday, as very strong winds are anticipated with the system. Our thinking is still that the strongest winds will come in two separate pushes. The first comes Thursday afternoon with an initial wave of cold air advection, with the second and potentially stronger swath of wind arriving overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. A tight surface pressure gradient, strong lapse rates, and the multiple pushes of cold air advection all favor very strong surface winds. The lack of pressure rises in deterministic guidance does bring some concern on reaching the true upper threshold of wind speeds that we can see with these events, but the setup still favors winds of high-end advisory to low-end warning criteria. The ECMWF EFI values of .9 to .95 with the shift of tails indicates a similar assessment based on local research, giving additional confidence to impactful winds. The highest uncertainty remains in our north central and eastern counties, with forecast wind speeds decreasing to the northeast. We are keeping with mention of northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph, with gusts up to 65 mph possible, most likely in the southwest.

The other forecast concern with this system is the light snow that is possible Thursday night into Friday. Blended POPs give a high likelihood of light snow central and east, with medium probabilities in western North Dakota. Deterministic and ensemble guidance have both shown a slight increase in snow potential with the latest runs, although most are showing streaky QPF signals that would indicate potential for scattered snow bands. The good news is that precipitation should be falling entirely as snow, with no mixed p-types expected. However, even though snow amounts are favored to be light (generally a low chance of exceeding two inches), it will be falling during the very strong winds. The intensity of blowing snow and subsequent reduced visibilities will be dependent entirely on the falling snow, since there is no blowable snowpack across the area. Since snow could be falling on and off, there is low confidence in the duration of significantly reduced visibilities at any one location, which makes any headline decisions tricky. Will hold off for now but would not be surprised if we end up needing a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow impacts along with wind headlines, although any winter headlines would likely not be issued until much closer to the start of snow falling.

Highs on Thursday will be in the lower 30s to lower 40s, with temperatures dropping significantly with the system moving through. Forecast high temperatures on Friday are mainly in the lower teens to lower 20s, although with the very strong winds, expect wind chill values to stay below zero through the day. Snow will very slowly taper off Friday evening as winds stay breezy, with lows Friday night dropping into the teens below zero across the far north, and generally the single digits below zero elsewhere.

Sharp northwest flow aloft is the dominant synoptic pattern signal for the back half of the weekend, with blended guidance introducing low snow chances late Saturday night through Sunday as a shortwaves drops south. This will bring another day of breezy to strong winds on Sunday, with highs anywhere from the mid teens in the Turtle Mountains area to the lower 30s southwest. Cooler air again infiltrates behind this system, with highs on Monday dropping to the single digits east to lower 20s southwest, and morning lows well below zero for northern and eastern portions of the forecast area.

For the remainder of next work week, there is relatively good consensus among NBM ensemble members on a brief warmup on Tuesday, before a steady cooling trend through the remainder of the week. CIPs Extended Analogs echo this sentiment, and the 8-14 Hazard Outlook gives a Moderate Risk (40 to 60 percent chance) of well below normal temperatures for the period from January 24th to the 26th, focused across northern and eastern North Dakota. This would broadly equate to overnight lows of 10 to 20 degrees below zero across the forecast area based on historical data. There are also some signs of increased snowfall potential across the region for a similar timeframe, so it will be a period to watch if you have travel plans across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

MVFR stratus deck is persistent across much of the forecast area, and will slowly push east through this afternoon and evening. There is occasional patchy fog and flurries underneath this cloud deck but not occurring at any one location for long and is low impact. By this evening, most low-level stratus should have either eroded or risen to VFR levels. There is a low chance for snow in the north central this evening and a low chance for light freezing rain or snow in the James River Valley overnight. In both cases, any precipitation is expected to be light and confidence is too low to add to any TAFs at this time. We did include LLWS at KXWA/KMOT/KBIS with this update, ahead of winds increasing late tonight into Thursday morning. Strong northwest winds are expected by the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048- 050-051.