textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot continues, with high temperatures around 100 in south central North Dakota on Sunday.

- Windy Sunday and Monday, with near-critical fire weather conditions expected across much of the western half of the state.

- Low chances for showers in the northwest tonight into Sunday morning, then low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. A few storms could be severe in central and eastern parts of the state.

- Areas of smoke from active western wildfires may return Sunday and linger into Monday.

- The first half of the upcoming work week should be much cooler, with highs in the 70s and 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Generally quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update, though breezy south winds with sustained speeds around 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH lingers over the area. The passage of a weak, slow moving cold front will gradually reorientated these winds to the northwest overnight through Sunday afternoon. With the passage of this front, and with the development of a weak mid level jet over northwestern North Dakota overnight, CAMs have started to paint some isolated showers along the International Border overnight. Have added low chances (<20%) for isolated showers in the northwest and portions of the north central for tonight, though very dry near surface conditions are expected to limit how much precpitation ends up reaching the ground. Otherwise, have made some tweaks to PoPs Sunday evening and overnight into Monday to account for the latest short-term model trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Ridge of high pressure will remain overhead through tonight bringing mainly dry conditions, although there could be a few isolated showers in the north as the warm front moves eastward. Developing low to are west will bring a breezy southerly flow through the night as well. Look for mild low temperatures in the 60s tonight. Sunday, surface low will move eastward through the day. Ahead of this low will be breezy to windy southerly winds, especially in eastern portions of the CWA. HRRR Ensemble guidance along with forecast soundings showing NBM wind forecast may be a tough high, thus lowered winds slightly. This brings winds just below advisory level, although sustained winds could still approach 30 mph. Of concern with these winds, low afternoon RH, and an approaching cold front bringing a wind shift could be some near critical to critical fire weather conditions. This is especially of concern in southwestern and some south central portions. There still remains some uncertainty on how many hours of critical fire weather conditions are possible given potential timing issues of the surface front. Thus have held off on any fire highlights. This southerly flow should bring some increased dewpoints, while the surface low reinforces the warm air. High temperatures in the 90s to 100s will be found, with perhaps some heat index values near to over 100 degrees. A heat product may be needed if confidence remains high these heat index values are reached before the surface front moves through. This front is also expected to return wildfire smoke to the surface Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from west to east. This smoke could then linger into Monday as northwest winds remain. Lastly this surface front could still bring showers and thunderstorms, with an isolated severe weather threat. SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk for much of central and eastern ND for Sunday, mainly for Sunday evening through Sunday night. Instability begins to increase Sunday evening, although capping issues remain. Some CAMs like the NAMNEST attempt to break this cap Sunday evening and bring some isolated severe weather potential within the Marginal Risk. Most CAMs delay thunderstorm development to the overnight hours when the upper wave moves through and there are better jet dynamics. Overall the severe weather threat remains isolated in nature, with large hail and especially damaging winds being the main threat. Mild temperatures look to remain for Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Post frontal day is then in store for Monday. Where the front continues to push eastward could still see an isolated to perhaps scattered severe weather threat. SPC has maintained Marginal to Slight Risks of severe weather in eastern ND as a result. Mainly large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats for Monday. Better shear profiles cold bring an isolated supercell, although higher LCLs should limit the tornado threat. Otherwise look for a cooler day on Monday with highs near 70 in the northwest to mid 80s southeast. Breezy to windy northwest winds will be had for Monday, which continue to bring wildfire smoke to the surface. Dry conditions behind this front combined with these gusty winds will bring more widespread near critical to critical fire weather conditions, especially in the southwest. If this trend remains then a fire weather highlight may be needed. Precipitation chances move eastward Monday evening, and cooler temperatures behind the front are expected with lows forecast in the 40s west to 50s east.

Tuesday looks to remain in the cool broad trough pattern. Look for highs in the 70s as a result with perhaps some breezy winds at times. Dry conditions could also bring some lower afternoon RH, especially in the west and south central. Right now the breezier winds Tuesday do not look to line up with the lowest RH values, although may be worth monitoring. Warming and mainly dry trend then remains in the forecast mid to late next week. The general flow pattern appears to be more northwest, although there are still some solutions that build the ridge more inland. This is causing some increased spreads in NBM temperatures although the overall trend is to return to above normal temperatures during this time period. Currently the forecast is mainly dry, although weak waves within this northwest flow could bring passing shower and thunderstorm chances. Low RH values could also continue through next week, although currently there is not a signal for strong wind. With any stronger northwest flow this could change and will be worth monitoring.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are found at all terminals to begin the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers are possible along the International Border overnight, though impacts at any given terminal is not currently anticipated. Near surface smoke is expected to spread from northwest to southeast across North Dakota tonight through Monday afternoon, while may induce MVFR visibility at times. Breezy south winds this evening are expected to turn northwesterly through the TAF periods as a weak cold front moves across the forecast area, with winds turning across the west tonight through tomorrow morning, then across central North Dakota Sunday morning and afternoon. Gusty northwest winds, with sustained speeds up to 25 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH, are anticipated across central North Dakota Sunday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.