textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- High chances for accumulating snow across all but far southern North Dakota Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The highest probabilities for 6 or more inches of snow are mostly north of Highway 2.

- Well above average temperatures through Monday and possibly into Tuesday, then rapidly cooling through the remainder of the workweek.

- Additional low to medium chances for lighter snow Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Upslope fog along the Turtle Mountains is dissipating quicker than initially anticipated as cloud coverage continues to increase. Therefore, ended fog mentions by mid-morning. Light radar echoes are being observed in the northwest as some mid-level clouds stream into the forecast area. However, some dry air remains in place and there has been no ground truth of anything reaching the ground at this time. Nevertheless, added low PoPs to the forecast a few hours earlier. Of note, observed temperatures have all seemed to rise above freezing with this cloud layer. Therefore, should anything reach the ground it will likely either be in the form of light snow or rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

For the most part, fog has dissipated within the forecast area, though upslope fog remains along the peripheries of the Turtle Mountains, and may persist through the morning. Otherwise, well above average temperatures are expected to continue through Monday, and may linger into Tuesday before the next winter weather system arrives. This translates to highs today ranging from the mid 30s northeast and low 40s northwest to the low 50s south. For Monday, it's the low 30s northeast to mid 50s southwest. Tuesday, with higher uncertainty due to the incoming system as mentioned, is forecast by the NBM to range from the mid 30s northeast to low 50s southwest, though could be biased a bit on the warm side due to the recent warm weather pattern.

Two weak impulses within zonal flow aloft and somewhat enhanced mid-level moisture are possible mainly in northern North Dakota today and again Monday. This could lead to light, relatively quick-moving precipitation. In both cases, with unseasonable warmth continuing, rain should be the primary precipitation type. However, there could be a brief period of mixed precipitation or freezing rain mainly during the early morning hours. In either case, impacts are expected to be few to none and limited in duration should any occur.

Models maintain a general consensus that a hybrid low will develop in Montana/northern Wyoming Monday night/Tuesday morning before rapidly passing through the Dakotas Tuesday through Tuesday night, and into Minnesota on Wednesday. Depending on how far north this low tracks will help determine exactly how much snow any location gets. That said, there has been a clear shift northward in the past 24 hours within the ensemble guidance. This could result in more rain before turning to snow, especially Tuesday afternoon and early evening. In addition, a further northward track could introduce significant dry slotting issues resulting in less precipitation for much of the area overall.

All told when it comes to snow probabilities in excess of 50 percent, this has pushed the 6 inch or greater contour mainly north of Highway 2, the 4 inch or greater contour mainly north of Highway 200, and the 2 inch or greater contour mainly north of I94. In all cases, the contour has a WNW to ESE orientation, thus is a bit further north in western North Dakota than eastern North Dakota.

Windy conditions Tuesday through Wednesday continue to produce the threat for blowing snow starting Tuesday night. However, initial snow Tuesday evening will likely be wetter and more difficult to blow around. Snow ratios are progged to increase later in the night and Wednesday as colder air funnels in. But even in this case, the strongest winds Wednesday are currently progged to be southwest and especially south central. These are the areas where snow totals are currently favored to be the lowest. So while significant visibility reductions are possible at times, especially as new snow is falling, this doesn't appear to be a widespread long duration blowing snow event as this time.

Starting once the incoming winter weather system gets cranking, cooler temperatures are on tap to finish out the week with below average temperatures now likely for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures are then favored to gradually increase this weekend and into early next week, although spreads beyond Friday are quite large. Additional light snow off a weak secondary wave is possible Thursday and could linger into Friday. At this time, the highest chances for light snow accumulations are in the far southwest though things will likely change by some degree between now and then.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A little patchy fog persists in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains, though has been rapidly dissipating. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility, along with light westerly winds that may become variable this evening and overnight, are expected through the period. Of note, there are low chances for light rain or snow early this morning and light rain this afternoon across portions of northwestern and north central North Dakota. As of this writing, no ground truth has supported anything reaching the ground with any returns currently on radar. With less than 30 percent confidence of any precipitation making it through the dry air layer at any terminals, have left any mentions out of the TAFs for now.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.