textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening.

- A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week into early next week, with many locations exceeding 100 degrees Saturday through Monday. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Saturday through Monday.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected through the hot spell.

UPDATE

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Convection continues to drop southeast through the southern James River Valley and should be pretty much out of the CWA by 06 UTC. The Severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to expire. Once convection exits into SD, remainder of the night will be quiet. We did add a mention of fog in the north for the overnight hours and early Friday.

UPDATE Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Ongoing convection over the James River Valley continues to move south. A lot of the latest guidance shows this convection decreasing in intensity as we head towards 06Z. Even so we are only dealing with a small portion of the CWA at this time. Elsewhere, we have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for Burleigh and Emmons counties and westward. We also cleaned up pops, removing them for all but the James River Valley. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current surface analysis places cool front stretching through northwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places westerly flow over our area, with a few short waves noted in the flow. Over our area, a few weak showers continue to linger over parts of Wells and Foster Counties.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, aforementioned frontal boundary combined the short wave will serve as the focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon into tonight. The question is how much convection will develop given the modest forcing. With that said, a very unstable atmosphere will be in place, with noted RAP CAPE values around 2000-4000 J/KG through central North Dakota/James River Valley at the time expected convective initiation. Deep layer shear will be ample for rotating updrafts, and oriented perpendicular to the frontal boundary suggesting rapidly developing supercell thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest chance for scattered severe weather did shift east a bit from earlier covering parts of southwest North Dakota, along with most of central ND and the James River Valley. Storms then push off to the east through the night.

Thereafter, focus shifts towards the hot temperatures expected to plague our area this weekend into next week. Broad upper level high builds over the central and much of the western CONUS this weekend, remaining into the upcoming work week. High temperatures climb into the triple digits over many locations on Saturday, and over most of the area on Sunday, with triple digits remaining over many locations into Monday. With this, dew points remain around 60, so an elevated humidity factor will come into play. Therefore, the Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect. With the upper high in place, expect mainly dry weather, but given the extreme temperatures would not be surprised to see a random thunderstorm pop up somewhere during this period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions at all TAF sites to begin the 06Z TAF period. Convection will exit the southern James River Vally by around 06 UTC. Areas of fog are possible late tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with generally light and variable winds 12 knots or less.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025- 031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.