textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southerly winds today becoming northwesterly on Wednesday.

- Rain showers, possibly with a few rumbles of thunder, in western ND this evening. Rain showers will then pass west to east across the state overnight, with light rain and snow possibly lingering through the day on Wednesday.

- Western ND will see highs in the mid 50s to low 60s today, otherwise below average temperatures are expected across the state through Thursday. Warmer temperatures are then expected Friday through the weekend.

- Widespread 30 to 50 percent precipitation chances are currently forecast later this weekend and into early next week. Initially as rain, then potentially changing to snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 913 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Quiet weather continues across the area. Winds are slowly picking out of the south across the central half of the state. No updates needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 547 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Winds have become a bit stronger in western North Dakota a little earlier than anticipated this morning with sustained winds as high as 25 mph, though gusts generally remain within 10 mph of said sustained winds at this time. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 449 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Surface high pressure currently sits over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota with low pressure encroaching from southwestern Canada. The tightened pressure gradient between the systems is currently producing breezy conditions in western parts of the state. As both systems propagate eastward today, the gradient will continue to tighten and very windy conditions out of the south will develop. There remains some question as to just how strong these winds will become. Generally speaking, with WAA, southerly flow isn't a great set-up to realize the strongest wind potential. This is supported by model forecast soundings where a lower-level inversion persists across most of the forecast area through the day today. This will limit mixing potential, thus the current thought is that there will be a few hours of near-advisory winds in the northwest and central parts of the state, with localized advisory level winds/gusts. Especially on the northerly and northeasterly facing downslopes of the Missouri Coteau. With low confidence, have opted to not issue a Wind Advisory for now, though will monitor should winds overperform through the day today.

The one interesting note, however, is in regard to northwestern parts of the state. Model forecast soundings suggest the inversion may erode in the northwest late in the afternoon or early evening, which would allow winds further aloft to mix to the surface. In addition, as aforementioned low pressure approaches the state, showers along a cold or occluded front are likely to enter western ND around the same time. Currently, around a few hundred J/kg of instability are progged in the northwest, which could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. And more impactfully, with an inverted V model forecast sounding, wouldn't be completely surprised if an enhanced wind gust reaching high wind/severe criteria doesn't make it to the surface with any showers or thunderstorms that may occur during the late afternoon or early evening.

There will likely be a lull in winds ahead of the frontal boundary before they take on a northwesterly component as it passes through. Currently, with the timing of this fropa, it seems like the best pressure rises and strongest CAA will be overnight tonight. This could help prevent wind gusts from reaching their max potential. However, moderate pressure rises and additional CAA pushes during the day Wednesday are favored. As such, expect very windy conditions that will likely reach advisory criteria across most of the forecast area, with the potential for localized stronger gusts. Wraparound snow is also possible in the northwest during the day Wednesday. Rain showers, potentially mixed with a little snow, are possible mainly along and north of I94, and east of the Missouri River, during the day on Wednesday. Other than potentially a dusting near the International border, little to no snow accumulations are expected.

Winds will rapidly diminish Wednesday evening, after which they will remain relatively light for most locations through Friday. A little light snow is possible mainly south of I94 on Thursday, though little to no accumulations are expected at this time. Another system may begin impacting parts of the forecast area mainly starting Saturday night, with precipitation chances increasing Sunday through Monday, and persisting into early next week. Currently the NBM starts out as all rain before very gradually changing to snow from north to south Sunday night through Monday night. That said, uncertainty with this entire system remains high so those details should be taken with a grain of salt for now.

Highs today will range from the upper 30s in eastern ND to the low 60s in far western parts of the state. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are then forecast to remain below average for the entire state with most locations reaching the 40s, though some readings topping out in the 30s may be mixed in. A warm-up is then expected Friday through this weekend, though uncertainty remains high in regard to if highs this weekend are just above average, or if they become unseasonably warm, especially on Sunday. A cooldown to seasonable temperatures is then favored with the system to start the next workweek. Lows through Thursday night will be mostly in the 20s to low 30s. After which, they are favored to remain above freezing through the weekend before possibly returning into the 20s during the early part of the next workweek.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Winds will continue to increase across most of the state today. Southerly gusts of 30 to 35 kts are still the overall expectation with localized gusts up to 40 kts possible. An encroaching frontal boundary off a low pressure system will bring showers and the potential for a few thunderstorms to western ND late this afternoon or early evening. Enhanced wind gusts are possible with any of these showers or thunderstorms that occur in the northwest during this timeframe. While the thunderstorm potential should diminish by late evening, showers are expected to pass through the state from west to east through the night tonight. Pockets of LLWS are also expected over parts of the area, especially south central ND as the frontal boundary approaches, though should diminish after a few hours once winds begin changing to a more westerly then northwesterly direction.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.