textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of freezing drizzle and dense fog will continue across much of central North Dakota through tonight. - Mild, dry, and windy for this upcoming weekend, then a cooling trend with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1209 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Limited updates needed at this time. Some light radar returns are being reported in central portions, although limited precipitation reports have been found so far. Decided to add in slight PoPs for mainly light snow as these weak returns move through. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 840 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Surface observations and webcams show freezing drizzle becoming more widespread and prevalent across much of central North Dakota, along and east of Highway 83 and along and north of Interstate 94. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas until 6 AM CST.

McIntosh County was added to the Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 3 AM CST. The Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled south and west of the Missouri River, and will expire at the top of the hour in McLean, McHenry, Bottineau, Rolette, and Pierce Counties.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been reissued for much of central North Dakota. Our expectation is that visibility should improve from northwest to southeast through tonight, so have divided the advisory into 2 segments with different expiration times. Areas from around Dickinson and New Salem to Bottineau and Rugby have a 9 PM CST expiration time, while areas to the south and east have the advisory in effect until 3 AM CST.

The other concern in addition to dense fog through tonight is the potential for freezing drizzle, which has already been reported sporadically across central North Dakota this afternoon. Will evaluate the need for enhanced messaging of freezing drizzle in time for the next forecast update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently, split flow aloft developing into the Northern Plains today with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped from southwest to northeast across the state. Extensive stratus deck in place across western and central North Dakota, with partial clearing far southwest and far south central. Widespread fog persists with the stratus, with areas of dense fog around the I-94 corridor and a tier or two of counties north. Earlier extended Dense Fog headlines till 1700 CST, and expect further modifications over the next couple of hours (removing and/or extending in time again).

Flow aloft transitions to south/southwesterly as the aforementioned split flow moves into the Great Plains, pushing the frontal boundary eastward with time tonight. As this occurs, lingering fog will gradually dissipate west to east tonight into Fri AM in the wake of the front, maybe lingering a tad in my far southeast. Embedded waves will trigger light precipitation across the region, specifically some light snow across the west tonight, some light freezing rain over northeast ND this evening, followed by increasing chances for mainly light snow on Friday south central into eastern North Dakota as the base of the southern stream part of the trough lifts northeast. Not expecting much QPF on Friday with less than a tenth of an inch of liquid and less than an inch of snow forecast. Forcing just isn't there for our region, with much better lift to our east on Friday.

Northwest flow Saturday morphs into zonal flow for Sunday ahead of a strong S/WV moving into the Pacific Northwest and a long wave trough over Canada developing south. The weekend will be mild and mainly dry, but also breezy both days. Fire weather concerns become elevated Saturday and Sunday in far southwest ND, where and when near-critical fire weather conditions materialize thanks to low RH around 25 percent and winds gusting up to 35 mph. This was maintained in the HWO.

Thereafter, we trend colder and much more active for next week as the aforementioned upper trough dips farther south and multiple embedded waves move across the region. Already have likely POPs for Monday night, when models are advertising strong DivQ and frontogensis collocation over west/central North Dakota.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Widespread low stratus and dense fog will continue across much of western and central North Dakota tonight, although visibility should gradually improve from northwest to southeast later tonight into Saturday morning. Low ceilings are expected to remain in place over much of the area through tonight before lifting from west to east during the day Friday. There are also low to medium chances for light snow and/or light freezing drizzle at most terminals through tonight, continuing in south central and eastern North Dakota on Friday. Winds will become northwest and increase to around 10-20 kts later tonight through Friday, strongest at KJMS and surrounding areas.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for NDZ003>005- 011>013-021>023-025-035>037. Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for NDZ022-023-025- 035>037-046>048-050.