textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will pass from west to east across the state today. Snow may change over to freezing rain before ending, especially in the western half of the state this morning.

- Temperatures will quickly warm above freezing from west to east today mainly for locations along and west of Highway 281. The rest of the week will feature well above average temperatures with highs frequently in the 50s and 60s, and even some low 70 degree readings possible in the southwest to finish out the workweek.

- Mainly dry weather after Tuesday, with low precipitation chances and a slight cooling trend returning for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A relatively progressive line of snow has developed over much of central North Dakota and is continuing to become more organized. So far, the lowest observed visibility is around 3 miles. However, as the band intensifies, visibility may drop down to a mile or less at times. In southwestern North Dakota, behind the main snow line, scattered showers have developed. A light glaze of ice remains possible, though temperatures will rapidly rise to above freezing this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A warm frontal boundary will pass from west to east across the state today, which will force a line of precipitation ahead of it. So far, precipitation has begun to develop over the past few hours over western and parts of central ND, though so far the only observations have been in the southwest. For the most part, precipitation has been and is expected to be in the form of snow. However, freezing rain, or perhaps a bit of sleet, is possible on the backside.

One thing of interest is the analyzed Max Wet Bulb temperatures on the SPC mesoanalysis page. So far, it has remained mostly 2 degrees or less within the highest radar echoes. Hence why cameras have shown mostly snow fall to this point. To further illustrate this point, most model forecast soundings show no issue in maintaining saturation through the DGZ. Rather, there is a warm nose in the lower levels that may allow frozen hydrometeors to melt before hitting a frozen surface without enough very near surface cold air aloft to refreeze. However, there is enough separation between the wet bulb temperature and air temperature in that warm nose that may help at least limit the duration of any freezing rain.

It should be noted that there remains a fair amount of discrepancy between the hi-res models in regard to freezing rain potential. The RAP and ARW produce more impactful freezing rain on the backside (mainly between Hwy 85 and Hwy 83) closer to sunrise and until mid-morning. Meanwhile, the HRRR goes with a lower overall precipitation solution and mostly snow, while the NAM and NAMNest are colder and in the form of mostly snow with sleet on the backside. The FRAM ensemble mean also produces a transitory line of light freezing rain mainly west of Highway 83.

In regard to snowfall, 1 to 3 inches remains possible mainly east of Highway 83, with the highest totals generally further east and the lowest further west. Less than an inch is generally anticipated along and west of Highway 83. Gusty winds up to 35 mph could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially in eastern North Dakota, including the James River Valley.

Based on the latest radar and model trends, issued another SPS in western ND for snow and freezing rain potential until mid- morning. Issued a second SPS for the rest of the forecast area that relates to the day today. Will continue to monitor should any further headlines be needed, especially if freezing rain becomes more prevalent this morning.

Once any precipitation ends today, expect mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures will also rapidly climb with unseasonably warm highs mostly in the low 60s to low 70s by Friday. The exception is far north central and northeastern ND, which are presently forecast to remain mostly in the 40s with a sharp gradient from around 45 to around 60 degrees. A cooling trend with low precipitation chances is then favored this weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Ahead of a warm frontal boundary, snow will continue passing from west to east across the state today, with some freezing rain on the back end. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility are expected at times with this system. Breezy to windy conditions are also on tap today before diminishing somewhat and becoming westerly at about 10 to 15 kts tonight. This could result in patchy blowing snow this afternoon mainly for the eastern half of the state. LLWS is also present across much of western ND this morning, though will generally diminish by noon. Pockets of LLWS may return this evening mainly to eastern and southern parts of the state.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.