textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog tonight through Wednesday morning over portions of northwest and central North Dakota.

- Moderate high temperature gradient Wednesday and Thursday across North Dakota, with 30s to lower 40s east and mid to upper 50s southwest.

- Seasonable to mild temperatures and dry weather expected through the rest of this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Dense fog persists over parts of the far northwest and the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory looks good at this time. Will continue to expand as needed overnight tonight. Otherwise, a few showers in the far north central will exit the CWA over the next hour or two.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Fog continues to form across portions of northwest North Dakota. Model guidance has dense fog expanding across northwest into north central North Dakota tonight. Current observations and webcams are showing dense fog forming across Burke and Divide counties. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued for those two counties and will likely be expanded as the fog expands. Precipitation continues to move along a backdoor cold front across the north central into the Devils Lake Basin. The precipitation will move out of the county warning area in the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

An upper level wave continues to pass across central North Dakota bringing forth some rain showers. Showers will pass this evening moving into eastern North Dakota late tonight. Updated the PoPs to match the current trends on RADAR. No major updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Currently, S/WV mid level trough moving east into the western Dakotas this aft, with its associated sfc low/trough from south central South Dakota north into central ND. Best lift (and thus precipitation coverage and intensity) with this wave is on the north side of the sfc trough axis over northern areas of the state where low level frontogensis forcing combines with the upper level forcing of the wave. Sfc observations are reporting several hundreths of accumulation so far associated with the more moderate rain. Rain will continue to track from west to east, ending this evening along with clouds diminishing west into central.

Northern stream S/WV developing south-southeast across Manitoba into Alberta today and tonight will bring a backdoor cold front into the region from the northeast tonight into Wednesday, with both the RRFS and RAP depicting low level clouds accompanying this boundary into the Turtle Mountain region 6-12Z, then expanding south and west Wednesday morning. Ahead of this boundary tonight, winds will be light and low level moisture elevated, and coupled with decreasing clouds fog development is favored over northwest and central areas as per the RRFS and RAP. This is in the gridded forecast and also added it to the HWO. This will be monitored, with more enhanced messaging sent as needed later tonight once fog develops.

Wednesday and Thursday will see sharp upper level ridging from the Southern Rockies north across the Northern High Plains to our west, and a deep upper level trough/closed low to our east. This sets up northerly flow aloft across the Dakotas and will also result in the aforementioned backdoor cold front stalling across the central Dakotas. Mild temperatures will be ahead of this boundary to the west, with colder temperatures to the east. Along this baroclinic zone, we may also see further fog and/or stratus development again Wed night and even Thu night. Elevated cloud cover is also a possibility.

This pattern slowly breaks down late this week into next weekend, with temperatures remaining mild to the west and moderating some central and east. Still looks mainly dry though may see some precipitation activity returning for the later parts of this weekend.

Next week is looking more active as a long wave upper level trough moves into the western CONUS early on, developing eastward with time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected across most of northwestern and central North Dakota tonight, through Wednesday morning, and possibly lingering into Wednesday afternoon. Fog has also developed in parts of the northwest and will likely expand across much of central and northwestern North Dakota tonight.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ001-002.