textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog could develop from the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley this morning.

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are favored through the weekend, with daily highs generally in the mid 30s northeast to lower 50s southwest.

- Cooling trend expected next week, but still near to above normal temperatures favored through the middle of the week. A more active weather pattern is also favored for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Quiet weather continues today through the upcoming weekend.

Broadly cyclonic flow aloft persists, with the Northern Plains in between a positively tilted trough extending off the California coast and a double barrel Hudson Bay area low. At the surface, a weak low was centered in southern South Dakota, with relatively benign flow over North Dakota, leading to light surface winds this morning. Low stratus has been primarily limited to eastern North Dakota along a stationary front where we are seeing more consistently reduced visibility from fog. This fog had extended into the Rolla area earlier in the night, but latest observations show a return to full visibility, likely aided by a shift to southwesterly winds. The remainder of the forecast area has mostly clear skies, with a low chance for anything beyond very shallow fog developing in these areas.

We continue our pattern of seasonably mild and dry conditions on the southern edge of the aforementioned northwest flow. There is strong confidence among ensemble members of highs today through Saturday to be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, with some mid to upper 30s in the Turtle Mountains area. We are carrying a dry forecast, with any passing waves only expected to bring some increases in cloud cover.

As we get into next week, the first few days still look quiet for now, but NBM temperature percentiles show the start of a steady cooling trend through next week. Ensemble members continue to show troughing developing over the western CONUS, with flow across the Dakotas turning southwesterly, a favored more active pattern for our region. By the time we get to Tuesday night into Wednesday, blended POPs range from 40 to 65 percent across the state, although with temperatures still near to above freezing (especially south), there is a moderate chance for precipitation to be primarily rain during daytime hours.

There is one small minority cluster of ensemble members (10 percent) that wants to build in shallow ridging vs the dominant southwest flow solution, but even this scenario still brings widespread precipitation to the state. Latest NBM probabilities are low to medium for at least 0.25 inches of QPF over 48 hours, with the likelihood of at least 2 inches of snow over the same period ranging from 30 percent southwest to around 70 percent in the north central, where cooler temperatures would favor snow as the dominant p-type. NBM temperature spreads are pretty large by late next week, but a return to near if not slightly below average temperatures is favored, with precipitation chances continuing into the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Patchy fog could develop across parts of central North Dakota tonight into Thursday morning, causing LIFR visibility and ceilings. The highest probabilities for fog are to the north and east of KMOT and KJMS. Confidence in fog impacting aviation at KJMS has lowered, so will handle with a TEMPO group for this TAF cycle. Aside from the fog, VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the forecast period, along with light winds becoming westerly on Thursday.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.