textproduct: Bismarck

KEY MESSAGES

- Light accumulating snow likely mainly over the southwest tonight into Thursday.

- Below average temperatures (cooler northeast, warmer southwest) continue through the workweek, then near to above normal for the weekend and into next week.

- Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for light snow and a wintry mix Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 608 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

For late evening update, most of the going forecast looks in good shape, with a few echos starting to show up on radar over parts of western North Dakota, but so far no indications of anything at the ground at this point per latest observations. With that said, low chances remain in place for if/when some snow may occur. Better chances still look to be later this evening with the approach of the upper wave and the surface low sliding south. Therefore, will keep precipitation chances in tact, but will increase cloud cover throughout the west as high cloud cover has pushed over much of the area, and lower clouds remain over the west.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Northwest flow continues to dominate the Dakotas, with a shortwave ridge in the jet stream over Montana. This northwest flow will carry a surface low pressure through South Dakota tonight through Thursday. A blanket of clouds cover the southwest half of the state, keeping temperatures in the teens. In the northeast part of the state in the clear skies, temperatures are in the single digits below and above zero.

This evening the surface low will slide into western South Dakota from eastern Montana. Light snow will begin across western North Dakota around sunset, slowly expanding east and south through the night. The highest chances for snow will between New Salem and Medora to the South Dakota border from 1am to 4am CT. At least a trace of snow is likely from Crosby to Bismarck to Linton and west. The far southwest will have the highest chance for 1 inch of snow, with NBM probabilities of 40 percent. Some of the CAMs have backed off on the snow totals, not sure if that trend will continue or not. Overnight lows will remain below normal with lows in the north in the teens below zero, to the teens above in the southwest.

On the backside of the system, temperatures will warm slightly in the southwest and central. The far north central will still have highs in the single digits above and below zero. Winds will remain light through Thursday. Friday a low and shortwave will dive through the Great Lakes and briefly bring snow flurries to North Dakota Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday a shortwave with surface Alberta Clipper will move through, bringing a chance for a wintry mix and more light snow. The precipitation will move west to east across the state starting in the morning. There is a chance of freezing rain in the west, but there is very little ice accumulation expected. A backdoor cold front will then cool temperatures aloft and mainly snow is then expected in the afternoon and evening across most of the state. At least a trace of snow is expected through the state, with a 40 percent chance of 1 inch in the south central and central. Snow will end west to east Saturday evening.

The flow will then be more zonal through next week, allowing a drastic warmup. Temperatures will likely be above normal. Highs could be in the 30s and maybe 40s. Multiple waves look to move through and look mostly dry as of now, but there are slight hints of rain or snow in the models next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 608 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings will remain over southwest into parts of northwest North Dakota overnight into Thursday morning, and will remain through the day over southwest North Dakota. Over southwest North Dakota, a period of IFR ceilings is possible Thursday morning. Periods of snow are expected over southwest and parts of northwest North Dakota, possibly bringing MVFR visibility, tonight into Thursday morning, greatest chances over the southwest. There is a low chances that some of the snow could push into parts of south central North Dakota, affecting the KBIS terminal very early Thursday morning.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.