textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will move into the area this evening. A cold front will move through the region tomorrow, bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region for the remainder of the week, with a weak cold frontal passage Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

245 PM Update...

A positively-tilted trough is currently pushing a shortwave towards the area from the southwest. Scattered showers can be seen on radar currently, with storm initiation expected to occur over the next few hours. An abundance of CAPE, 1000-2000 J/kg, is readily available across Central NY and NE PA. What's lacking for potential severe storm development is mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km bulk shear, where lapse rates are at or below 6 C/km, and no 0-6 bulk shear. Model soundings do show a classic low-level minor inverted-V shape, where downbursts causing strong to damaging winds will likely be the main threat from any storm development.

Showers and storms continue until the evening hours, and mainly scattered showers will be left overnight Monday. A frontal system associated with the same trough approaches early morning Tuesday, again increasing chances for showers and storms. We see similar CAPE values with the approaching frontal boundary, as well as an increase in shear. The threat for strong to damaging winds from these storms continue with the frontal passage, which will be through Tuesday morning.

Conditions improve heading into Tuesday afternoon and beyond as high pressure builds in from the west, and high temperatures cool a little bit with the aforementioned frontal passage to the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure is still slated to build into the region Wednesday bringing in a slightly cooler and less humid airmass. Highs should still get into the low 80's for most of the region given abundant sunshine. Clouds then should be on the increase Wednesday night as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Ahead of the front Thursday enough lift and moisture looks present for the development of showers and thunderstorms. A lack of deep moisture should keep the coverage more of a scattered variety. However, modeled low level lapse rates are rather steep in the mid-afternoon with dry air in the mid levels. These factors may aid in a couple of thunderstorms generating gusty winds. The clouds and precipitation should keep highs from getting much above 80 Thursday after starting out in the 60's.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Another area of high pressure is still modeled to move into the region for Friday and Saturday bringing sunny skies and mostly clear nights. Another quick shot of cooler air could keep highs in the 70's before temperatures start to rebound Saturday. A fairly decent spread with timing of another cold front exists within ensemble data currently with either a Sunday or Monday frontal passage. Renewed heat with highs near 90 Sunday and increased humidity is expected Sunday. Some potential for showers and thunderstorms exists both days as well with temperatures trending slightly cooler Monday due to clouds and rain chances.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the afternoon hours. Rain showers and thunderstorms move into the area starting late in the afternoon. TEMPO groups for storms have been included for all sites except RME, where chances are less likely. Fuel Alt to IFR ceilings could move in later tonight, especially if we can get some heavy rain during the evening to prime the boundary layer with moisture, but confidence was too low to include IFR anywhere yet.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...Batch of showers and possible thunderstorms with associated restrictions, as another frontal system passes.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, except pre- dawn valley fog possible especially KELM.

Thursday... Mainly VFR, a brief shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out in the afternoon/evening hours at any site.

Thursday night through Saturday... VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.