textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated chances of precipitation slightly for tonight into tomorrow morning. Thunder chances were also increased for tomorrow afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another trough of low pressure moves in tomorrow into Thursday, keeping the cooler weather around with widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms in the Finger Lakes into CNY.

2) A pattern change heading into the weekend and early next week will allow for much warmer air across the Northeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region tonight into tomorrow with a warm front lifting into the Northeast. With clouds increasing later today and this evening, temperatures tonight stay in the 40s with rain moving in after midnight. Due to the lack of moisture in place, not everyone will see rain overnight, with the Finger Lakes into the Tug Hill having the best chance as frontogenesis strengthens along the front as it moves north.

Tomorrow, the region will be in the warm sector of the low, with soundings being fairly saturated, widespread cloud cover with rain showers are likely. This keeps temperatures from warming up too much though mid level lapse rates and falling 500 mb heights will help develop instability without too much heating. Shear is between 30 and 40 knots and 500 - 700 mb lapse rates get to near 7C/km. The warm sector also does not have much of a trigger to get them to the level of free convection, with the cold front later in the afternoon likely being the source of greater lift for storms. By the time the front moves through, hodographs are pretty strait so isolated damaging wind gust are possible.

Once the front is through Wednesday night, a new coastal low develops off the New England coast. There is some hints that a TROWAL may form extending from Long Island up into the Catskills with a heavier band of precipitation. Areas under this feature may see up to an inch of rain Wednesday night into Thursday though not enough rain for hydro concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once this trough is to the east of New England this weekend, the long awaited warm up looks to begin. The long wave trough that has been sitting over the eastern US breaks down into faster, zonal flow with western US troughing starting to develop. This will open up the eastern US to warmer and more humid southwest flow. In fact, odds of seeing 80s Sunday or Monday is increasing. With the increase in moisture, the threat for more scattered showers and thunderstorms also returns though timing of shortwaves to trigger the storms is uncertain.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Conditions will be mainly VFR for the majority of sites, with rain coming in later tonight. RME will be the first to see MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings prior to 12z while the rest of the Central NY terminals will have a chance of seeing MVFR ceilings after 12z. The incoming rain is not expected to reduce visibilities much. There is some uncertainty on how far south the rain will extend, so while some passing showers cannot be ruled out at AVP, confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Surface winds are fairly light, sustained at 5 to 10 kts currently. Overnight, there will be a brief period of light and variable winds before southerly winds begin to increase with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts of 20 to 25 kts. The strongest gusts are expected by midday.

Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night...Scattered showers with associated restrictions likely. Small chance for thunder Wednesday afternoon.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.