textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lake effect snow totals were adjusted slightly down and north a bit compared to the last forecast as the snow band took much longer to drop south.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow will taper off later this morning.

2) Temperatures return to near average levels mid to late week, with mainly quiet weather. However, the pattern will remain active this weekend into next week with several frontal systems bringing periods of showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Lake effect snow will start to wind down later this morning. The snow band ended up staying north of Onondaga County for much of the night, so forecast totals were lowered a couple of inches. Still think a few locations should come in at or slightly above warning criteria of 7 inches, with the heaviest snow falling just north of our area in Oswego County. The lake effect snow warning will remain in effect until 8 am this morning and will likely be allowed to expire at that time, with just a few lingering flurries and snow showers this morning. Today will remain cold, but still a few degrees warmer than yesterday with temperatures in the 30s for most of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A few warm air advection snow/rain showers will be possible on Thursday, however this weak system will mostly just bring cloudy skies to the region. High pressure looks to be in place for most of the day on Friday, with partly sunny skies and seasonable highs in the 40s to near 50.

A fast moving clipper system drops through the area Friday night bringing a period of rain/snow mix. Chances for showers linger through the rest of the weekend due to several weak short waves moving through. A potentially stronger cold front Sunday into Sunday night will bring more cold air into the region for the start of next week.

The longer range forecast is showing an active pattern continuing through next week, but forecast confidence on the details are low at this time. The models indicate the potential for a highly amplified pattern and another potential shot of Arctic air towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure moves into the area today, bringing VFR conditions to all terminals. Winds will be light and variable through the day.

Outlook:

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR; a low chance for spotty rain/snow showers.

Friday afternoon through Saturday...A chance for additional rain/snow showers as a clipper moves through the region; low confidence on timing.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as another system moves through the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-018-036-037.