textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Lake effect snow will come to an end later today. There will be a brief dry period before the next system moves in on Sunday with rain and snow showers. More widespread snow showers along with light accumulations will be possible on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Lake effect snow will continue through the early morning hours. Drier air will work its way into the region later this morning with lake effect snow showers gradually come to an end early this afternoon. Additional accumulations of 1 to 4 inches will be possible in the heaviest bands. The advisory for Steuben County has ended but the rest of the headlines will remain in effect until 7am. Temperatures will max out in the 30s today. Tonight will start out dry but a low pressure system will approach the region as it moves into the Great Lakes Region. With temperatures falling into the 20s, any precipitation with this system will be snow. For tonight, most accumulating snowfall is expected north of the Southern Tier resulting in a half inch or less. A narrow band of higher moisture sets up over North-Central NY, so N. Oneida could see around 2 inches by sunrise Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

The aforementioned low will continue to move across the Great Lakes and just north of the region on Sunday. Snow will transition to rain or a rain/snow mix as temperatures warm up into the 30s and 40s. Despite the warmer temperatures, gusty winds will bring daytime wind chills down into the 20s and 30s. A dry slot will move into the region following the passing of a cold front leading to more scattered coverage from the Southern Tier and areas southward. Further north, wrap around moisture and northwesterly flow will support lake enhanced snow showers and additional accumulations overnight. Total accumulation between Sunday and Sunday night will be 3 to 7 inches in N. Oneida. With these totals, a winter weather advisory has been issued from early Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Temperatures drop into the teens and 20s.

A weak ridge of high pressure moves into the region Monday with the low moving off into the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will remain blustery to start the day but gradually become calmer through the evening hours. Highs will only be in the 20s and 30s. A weak wave will move into the region late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and bring a chance for light snow showers. Little to no accumulation is expected. Overnight lows will be in the teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A system will originate out of the Southeast and move up the coast on Tuesday as the aforementioned weak wave continues to move through. As mentioned in past forecast updates, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. Looking at the deterministic guidance, the GFS remains the fastest and wettest compared to the CMC and ECMWF. Ensemble guidance all show widespread accumulating snowfall with this system, though if the end result is like the GFS, then there would be rain or a wintry mix for the far southern counties in our CWA. As we get closer to the this system, the details should become more clear as solutions come into better agreement. Staying consistent with the previous update, this system is highlighted in the HWO.

This system moves out of the region by Wednesday with weak high pressure taking over. Cool, northwest flow may support some light lake effect snow over portions of Central NY. The quiet conditions will be short-lived as a frontal system drops south Thursday, though similarly with the early week system, the exact timing is uncertain. Then behind the front, another weak disturbance looks to move through by the end of the work week.

Temperatures will be below average throughout the long term period, though become even colder following the frontal passage late in the week. There is potential for widespread single digits Thursday night/Friday morning.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Lake effect snow continues over SYR and occasionally RME. Fuel Alt/MVFR restrictions are expected but periods of IFR/LIFR visibilities will be possible at SYR through at least 15z. The main band of snow will drift west of RME by around 15z leading to VFR conditions. While snow will remain over SYR through early to mid-afternoon, conditions should also improve to VFR as snow gradually becomes just flurries. With lake effect, there is always some uncertainty with band location and restrictions. All other terminals will be VFR throughout most of the TAF period.

The next system will move in late tonight and will bring snow showers to Central NY. Confidence is highest at SYR and RME. With lower confidence at ITH, ELM, and BGM, a tempo group was added with the best estimate of snow showers moving through. While guidance is not showing any restrictions with these snow showers, visibilities will likely be reduced to at least MVFR levels. At this time, snow is expected to stay north of AVP, at least prior to 12z Sunday.

Winds will remain breezy to start today but will gradually become calmer this afternoon and evening. As the next system approaches the region, winds become stronger tonight, especially after 04z. Gusts will peak around 20 to 25 kts prior to 12z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers; gust up to 30 kts during the day.

Monday...Mainly VFR; low chance for snow showers late Monday night.

Tuesday...Snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; spotty lake effect snow showers are possible around SYR and RME.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ009-018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ017- 044>046.