textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Slight uptick in showers across NE PA/central NY over the next couple of hours with decreasing chances elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fall pattern continues with multiple chances for showers through the weekend; however, no hazardous weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fall pattern continues with multiple chances for showers through the weekend; however, no hazardous weather is expected.

Current radar outlines some shower activity across the Poconos and into portions of eastern New York and will likely continue to bring some rain chances over the next couple of hours to the eastern half of the forecast area. Recent surface analysis does outline a cold front across a SYR-UNV-MRB line could bring some additional shower activity over the next couple of hours further west which is outlines fairly well in REFS guidance. Given this potential, have added some shower chances across this region; however, accumulations will generally be light and be nothing more than some light, beneficial rainfall across the region.

As this cold front shifts east of the region tonight, drier air begins to work into the forecast area, with mainly dry conditions on tap for Friday. The area of low pressure stationed across the Mid-Atlantic Coast and across the Great Lakes could bring some light showers late Friday, but best chances appear to be west/east of the area at this time. Shower potential increases more markedly for the weekend, with an area of low pressure moving across southwestern Ontario and into New York State. All model guidance continues to point towards rainfall being light with this system with periods of rain through Sunday morning before another shortwave trough dips down across the region and brings additional rain chances late Sunday and into Monday. A slight reprieve from dry conditions appear possible late Monday through Wednesday based on LREF ensemble guidance, before an unsettled pattern takes hold of the region for later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Conditions will be mainly VFR this TAF period. Models have some showers popping up around AVP overnight and those could be accompanied with MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings. Given this, a tempo group was added from 02 to 06z. In addition, fog may be possible at ELM close to sunrise. Guidance does not show much for fog and model soundings are dry for most of the overnight hours, so confidence is low that there will be fog.

Winds are staying a bit more breezy than what guidance was showing. Some gusts of 15 kt are possible yet this evening. Winds are expected to become calm overnight. By midday, southwest to westerly winds will pick back up to 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Sunday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Monday...Mainly VFR though lingering showers also possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.