textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry and pleasant conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure builds in.

2) A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Monday through midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure will continue building in from the west this evening, ushering in drier and cooler air tonight with a mostly clear sky. Areas of valley fog are expected to develop overnight/early tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will be running several degrees below average in the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

The surface high settles overhead tomorrow setting up a nice start to the weekend. After the morning fog burns off, we'll be under a mostly sunny sky with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. With dew points in the 50s, it will be a very comfortable day.

Sunday is expected to trend warmer as the high starts to shift east and the flow becomes more west-southwesterly with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A zonal flow pattern sets up next week with several weak waves pushing across the region. A surface frontal boundary dips south out of Canada Sunday night into Monday and may stall near the area. This could lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week, along with several shortwaves that push through the zonal flow pattern.

Some deterministic model guidance does show the zonal flow becoming more amplified with a stronger upper level ridge building over the Tennessee River Valley Tuesday into Wednesday which could set up the potential for some locally robust storms midweek depending on timing and placement of any impulses aloft, as temperatures would trend a bit warmer and dew points could rise well into the 60s. Ensemble guidance does seem to keep the 500mb flow more zonal during this time, so it's a trend to watch.

High temperatures Monday are expected to be in the upper 70s and low 80s, while Tuesday and Wednesday range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s during this time.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Conditions will be mainly VFR this TAF period. Light winds, clear skies, and moisture from recent rainfall should lead to fog developing late tonight/early Saturday morning. Valley fog seems likely though fog may spread outside of the valleys as well. With this update, ELM has the best chance. For RME, ITH, and BGM, tempo groups were added for the fog that was introduced with the last update. Crossover temps are high though conditions may be too dry for fog to reach this other terminals. Fog burns off after sunrise and VFR conditions return to all terminals by around 13z. Once winds calm down this evening, sustained speeds will generally be 5 kts or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions, especially each afternoon/evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.