textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast this afternoon. Increased PoPs for tonight's light snow, but any accumulations still look to be minor.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and chilly weather will persist through Tuesday with scattered rain and snow showers. Snow showers are expected to be most widespread later tonight into Tuesday morning, which may result in minor accumulations.

2) High pressure and drier weather is expected for mid-to-late week. Near to below normal temperatures Wednesday will give way to moderating conditions for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With cold air aloft, some breaks of sunshine,and steep low-to- mid level lapse rates, a few convectively-driven rain/snow showers have developed this afternoon. With a little bit of instability, a rumble of thunder cannot be totally ruled out. That being said, the overall chances for this is rather low.

A clipper system and supporting shortwave move in later tonight into Tuesday, drawing down even colder air from the north and bringing a more widespread round of mainly snow showers. Given the late-night timing of this snowfall and lows falling back into the 20s and lower 30s, there can be some minor accumulations ranging from a dusting to an inch or two, with the highest totals into early Tuesday morning mainly in the higher terrain near and north of Route 20. Tuesday's highs will be mainly in the 30s, while overnight lows Tuesday night drop back into the teens and lower 20s, giving us quite the winter chill first thing Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As the upper level trough departs Tuesday night and high pressure begins to build in, one of the longer stretches of drier conditions in recent weeks develops Wednesday and Thursday allowing for area rivers, streams and lakes to start to lower a bit.

With zonal flow and even a little ridging aloft setting up weak warm advection, temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures are expected to go from the mid 40s and lower 50s Wednesday to the 60s area-wide by Friday. While Wednesday night still looks chilly, overnight lows return to the 40s Thursday and Friday nights. A frontal boundary looks to approach the area later Friday or Saturday, but with high pressure expected to be over the Southeastern U.S. blocking moisture-rich air coming up from the south, this system looks to become pretty moisture-starved by the time it reaches our area.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Despite some isolated rain and snow showers around this afternoon, mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist through this evening. A weak system will move through the area later tonight into Tuesday morning, which will bring lowering ceilings and snow showers to the area. Conditions will be mainly MVFR during this time. Even after the snow tapers off, lingering MVFR ceilings will likely persist for most terminals (except for KAVP) until at least the end of the TAF period (at least until 18Z Tuesday).

Outlook:

Late Tuesday through Thursday Night...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Friday night...A weak frontal zone may encroach into the area with a chance of rain showers and associated restrictions.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.