textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening; otherwise, a strengthening ridge of high pressure will be the main feature in the coming days leading to above average temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) A cold front will bring the potential for stronger thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler conditions to wrap up next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Sunshine will be giving way to increasing clouds later this afternoon and evening as scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms along and ahead of a frontal boundary push east. These showers and thunderstorms will move into a fairly dry environment (dew points were lowered from the NBM into this evening given current obs were a good 4 to 8 degrees lower than projected), and are expected to diminish in coverage and intensity, especially east of I-81. Showers are expected to taper off by about midnight tonight.

A general westerly flow tomorrow will become southwesterly tomorrow night into early next week as surface high pressure becomes anchored around Bermuda and an upper level ridge centered off the Southeast Coast strengthens and builds northward leading to strong warm air advection and increasing dew points, giving us a taste of summer-like conditions, especially Monday and Tuesday. While there will be a bit of a temperature gradient tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 70s across CNY, and upper 70s to mid 80s from the Twin Tiers south, highs Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 80s to near or even into the low 90s area-wide. NBM guidance continues to look too warm compared to nearly all model guidance, so the trend to lower temperatures a few degrees was continued, but it still keeps highs just above most guidance given the synoptic set up. There is also some concern regarding the potential for scattered clouds and isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday as a couple of weak waves embedded in the flow around the ridge approach, which could result in high temperatures being held back slightly.

As mentioned, dew points will be on the rise, reaching the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday, with some spots even reaching the upper 60s Tuesday afternoon, so the humidity will be noticeable. Some model guidance is more aggressive with the increase dew points, especially Monday, so this is something to keep an eye on.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Model guidance is in pretty good agreement that a cold front will push into the region sometime on Wednesday, leading to the next best chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. As of now, the bulk of the convection looks to be from midday through the afternoon, and while there remains some uncertainty with regards to timing, the best instability seems to be setting up across NE PA through portions of the Southern Tier of NY and into the southern Catskills. This coincides with the warmest temperatures Wednesday where highs will still be well into the 80s, while the Finger Lakes region through the Mohawk Valley cool back off into the mid and upper 70s. If everything can come together, some locally strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the afternoon and early evening. High temperatures are expected to fall back into the 60s for the second half of the week behind the front.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Conditions will be VFR through the afternoon and early evening. Showers will move into the region late in the day and with them, ceilings will begin to fall over the Central NY terminals. SYR and RME will have the best chance for showers while all other terminals, including AVP, may see a passing shower after 22z. MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions are expected at RME, SYR, ITH, and BGM overnight. Following the rain, fog will also be possible at SYR and RME. Model soundings would also hint at the possibility of fog at ELM but that will likely depend on if rain does fall there. Given that most guidance do not favor fog at ELM, confidence was too low to include at this time. All terminals should return to VFR after 13z Sunday.

Winds are a bit breezy this afternoon with gusts around 20 kts currently being observed over much of the region. Southwesterly winds will remain breezy through the evening before calming some overnight. Winds will then become west to northwesterly Sunday morning with sustained speeds of less than 10 kts.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; morning valley fog possible and afternoon isolated showers/thunderstorms - both of which could result in restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.