textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms today may bring locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.

2) Cooler and drier weather returns Friday into Saturday, with chilly overnight temperatures and mostly clear skies.

3) Another system will bring widespread showers Saturday night into Sunday, followed by drier weather Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low pressure system approaches from the west this morning, with a warm front lifting into the region and scattered showers developing ahead of it. Shower coverage will increase through the day as the associated cold front approaches by mid afternoon. Model soundings continue to show PWAT values approaching 2 inches at times, supporting the potential for locally heavy downpours.

Instability remains modest, with CAPE generally a few hundred J/Kg early in the day and potentially increasing to around 500-600J/Kg by afternoon according to the NAM. However, ongoing morning showers and cloud cover may limit destabilization, so the degree of afternoon instability remains somewhat uncertain. Deep layer shear of around 30 knots will be present, though low and mid level lapse rates remain rather weak. Given these parameters, any isolated severe thunderstorm potential should be mainly confined to the Southern Tier of NY into Northeast PA. Sounding profiles also show long skinny CAPE, favoring efficient rainfall production. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place across the western portion of the region, where isolated flash flooding will be possible.

Showers will gradually end from west to east Thursday evening, as the front moves east of the area. Temperatures ahead of the front will rise into the mid 70s to near 80 possible where greater breaks in the clouds and showers occur. Rainfall amounts today are generally expected to range from one third to half an inch, with locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure Will build into the region behind the front, bringing a cooler and drier air mass for Friday. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the day, with mainly clear conditions continuing into early Saturday morning. Under the influence of the cooler air mass and surface high, temperatures Friday and Saturday will generally only reach the mid 60s to lower 70s. The cooler air will be more noticeable overnight, with lows falling into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Some of the typically cooler locations across northern Oneida county could dip into the upper 30s. Clouds will then begin to increase Saturday afternoon ahead of the next approaching system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another low pressure system will approach from the west Saturday night into Sunday, bringing chances for showers. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport moisture northward, supporting the potential for moderate to widespread rainfall. Guidance has trended a bit slower with the passage of the low compared to yesterday, likely due to lingering influence from the surface high earlier in the weekend. Showers may therefore continue through much of Sunday before gradually tapering off by Sunday evening. Monday currently looks mainly dry as surface high pressure develops north of the Great Lakes. Model guidance begins to diverge by Tuesday, leading to increasing uncertainity in how the midweek pattern will evolve.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rain showers will continue across the area until around 22z/00z, with mainly MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions. Conditions are forecast to continue MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions after the rain has passed, with low ceilings left over. Conditions may bounce between MVFR and VFR after 00z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night...Patchy fog expected to develop, with IFR restrictions possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.