textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain is moving our faster early this morning, followed by some patchy fog and lingering clouds through mid morning. High pressure will bring areas of fog tonight into early Monday morning along with patchy frost. Uncertainty remains for Tuesday on just how fast any rain showers will be able to move into the area along an incoming front from the west.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers end before daybreak this morning, with patchy fog possible. Decreasing clouds are expected through the afternoon hours as high pressure moves over the region. High pressure will be directly overhead tonight into Monday, bringing chilly overnight lows and areas of fog and patchy frost early Monday morning. There will be plenty of sunshine, along with warm temperatures Monday afternoon.

2) A front approaches the area bringing some light rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. The next low pressure center brings better chances for a wetting, soaking rainfall later on Wednesday.

3) Unsettled and much cooler weather moves into the region Thursday through the end of next weekend as an upper level trough spins overhead.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain showers are now confined to the Catskills and Poconos region, and even these will be exiting the area before daybreak. Lingering clouds and even patchy fog is expected due to the ample levels of low level moisture present. A north-northeast wind will begin to dry things out with clouds decreasing from NE to SW through the morning hours.Expect plenty of sunshine by the afternoon hours over the entire area. The sunshine will allow temperatures to reach 60-65 for highs late this afternoon. A 1025mb surface high will be directly overhead tonight. This will lead to light and variable winds along with clear skies. With these ideal radiational cooling conditions undercut NBM guidance by 1-2 degrees, especially in the normally colder valley locations. Added in areas of fog and patchy frost into the forecast as well. The growing season has not officially kicked off just yet, but being so close (several counties officially start on May 1st, the rest on May 11th) decided it would be prudent to make sure this frost potential was mentioned in the forecast. After the fog burns off early to mid morning Monday expect sunny skies under an upper level ridge. Temperatures have been trending warmer for Monday, now looking to reach the mid-60s to low 70s. Dew points will likely drop into the 30s Monday afternoon, as plenty of dry air is present in the forecast soundings; this will lead to min RH values reaching at least 30-35%, but surface winds will be light southeast less than 5 mph in most locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

South winds increase Tuesday morning between 8-20 mph with a few higher gusts out ahead the next incoming front. This frontal boundary will be running into a remnant upper level ridge at 500mb and also ample low level dry air. It should start off mostly sunny in the morning hours along and east of I-81, but then clouds increase from west to east by midday and into the afternoon. An area of mid level moisture moves through bringing chances for rain showers, especially later in the day. Did lower PoPs compared to the NBM guidance due to the low level dry air in place. Eventually a few scattered showers will roll across the area with light QPF amounts under five-hundreths of and inch through sunset. Isolated to scattered showers remain in the forecast Tuesday night with very light rainfall amounts expected. Otherwise, it will be mild with highs well into the 60s Tuesday afternoon and overnight lows in the 40s to around 50.

Another low with more moisture associated with it then moves in from the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday afternoon. This will bring much higher probabilities of rain, and higher QPF amounts of a half inch or more to the region by the time it tapers off Wednesday night. This timeframe remains mild with highs 60 to 65 Wednesday, and lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind the departing low Wednesday night a cold front will press through the area. An upper level trough/low remains anchored over the area Thursday through Sunday in a highly amplified, blocky, negative NAO weather pattern. This time period will feature shortwaves and disturbances rotating through the area at different times. It won't be raining or precipitating the entire time, but each day will feature chances of isolated to scattered showers with partly to mostly cloudy conditions. 850mb temperatures are forecast to range from -2 to -6C this entire timeframe. High temperatures will range from 45-55 degrees over the region each day, with lows in the 30s each night. With these cold temperatures aloft and down to the surface it is certainly possible that some snowflakes mix in with the rain showers...especially over the higher elevations at night and early morning hours.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Rain continues through the late evening hours before gradually ending overnight. Low ceilings and occasionally reduced visibilities are expected with the rain. Due to saturated conditions and light winds, fog will then be possible at all terminals, though there remains uncertainty on the timing of fog and how low visibilities will be. Skies will then begin to scatter out around 12z or shortly after, so conditions are expected to return to VFR by 15z at all terminals. There are some guidance that keep clouds around longer, and if that does happen, then conditions will be slower to improve. Southeasterly winds become light and variable tonight. Despite winds becoming more northeasterly by Sunday afternoon, speeds will stay at 5 kts or less.

Outlook:

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR expected; fog possible early Monday morning.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions, mainly in the late afternoon and at night.

Wednesday through Thursday...Additional scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.