textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added in patchy fog for the predawn hours as a clear slot rotates over the area. This will allow from some modest cooling and saturation for the fog development. Otherwise, minor tweaks to chances of precipitation and clouds cover today through Friday. More clouds and shower chances were added for Sunday, but exact timing remains uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A slow moving upper level low pressure system will keep our weather cool and cloudy with a few showers around through Friday morning.

2) The weekend will feature a substantial warming trend, with a chance for a few scattered showers Saturday night into Sunday.

3) Very warm to hot conditions overspread the forecast area early next week. There will be a chance for thunderstorms especially heading into Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES 1...

An upper level low will drift east over the forecast area through the day today. A small mid level dry slot is bringing some partial clearing early this morning, but this will also allow for patchy fog formation. From mid morning through the rest of the day skies are forecast to remain mainly cloudy, with a cool NW wind expected. The mid level dry slot remains center along the I-81 corridor through much of the day. Better chances for scattered showers will be across the western Finger Lakes to Central Southern Tier...as well as the eastern Catskills. Most of the shower activity will be light today, in some cases it could be drizzle or sprinkles, especially under the mid level low over the Finger Lakes region. With 850mb temperatures hovering around 0C today and plenty of clouds, look for highs to only reach the upper 40s to 50s in most locations. Some lower 60s will be possible across the Wyoming Valley, Delaware River Valley and southern Sullivan County (NY).

Tonight the 700mb low drops south of the area and additional moisture wraps into the region from the north-northeast overnight. This will initiate some new, steadier shower activity, especially across Central NY. Rainfall amount will be light, under a quarter inch, with just a few hundreths or less from the Twin Tiers south.

By Friday morning the mid/upper level low will be drop southeast away from Long Island NY. Our area will be on the NW fringes of influence from this departing low. There will still be some clouds locked in over the area in the moist low level northwest flow, along with isolated showers for the morning hours. Eventually some drier air begins to mix into the atmosphere over the region, which should equate to partly sunny conditions by afternoon and evening. With partial sun temperatures should nudge up into the 60s for highs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Current guidance brings a transient upper level ridge over the area on Saturday, as 850mb temperatures rise up to around +10C in the afternoon. This should lead to a dry, mostly sunny and warm day with highs in the mid-70s to around 80 expected. For Saturday night into Sunday a few shortwaves will ride along the zonal westerly flow and could bring some periods of clouds and showers at times. Most of Sunday will still likely end up dry, under partly sunny skies. As 850mb temperatures reach +13C, surface readings will also rise, likely reaching the mid-70s to low 80s (except mid-80s in the Wyoming Valley)...this is several degrees above average for Mid-May.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upper level ridge continues to amplify across the Northeast US heading into early next week. 850mb temperatures surge to +16C Monday and +18C on Tuesday, along with thicknesses just above 570dm. This could support highs well into the 80s and even some lower 90s for the normally hotter valley locations. Humidity levels remain low on Monday, but start to increase some by Tuesday, as surface dew points reach the mid-60s. Will need to keep a close eye on temperatures and expected heat indices as this is shaping up to be the first potentially impactful heat event of the season. NWS Heat Risk is starting to pick up on this signal as well, with well above climatology temperature readings expected; even at night as lows only dip into the 60s. The sun is getting strong this time of year, and this will act to exacerbate heat conditions when/if it is sunny during the midday and afternoon hours. Ensembles seem pretty locked in on temperatures reaching at least near 90 or slightly above in our valley locations at this time (50-60% probability); but a caveat would be if more clouds and or pop up showers end up being around then that could certainly keep readings down a bit.

Monday should be dry and mostly sunny, but a chance for a few thunderstorms returns to the forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening. Early indications are that a frontal boundary will approach and move through sometime next Wednesday. This will bring temperatures down a few degrees (depending heavily on exact frontal timing) and also increase chances for showers and thunderstorms into the high chance to low end likely range.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Post-frontal low stratus continues to rotate around the area. This has resulted in mainly MVFR ceilings. Expecting most restrictions this morning to be MVFR to Fuel Alternate from low ceilings. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist for most of the day, with KAVP likely being the exception (where VFR conditions are likely this afternoon and perhaps has early as the mid- morning). Ceilings lower once again this evening with widespread Fuel Alternate ceilings and likely IFR at all terminals except for KAVP.

Outlook:

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday night into Sunday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.