textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming over the next couple of days as upper level ridging builds in with a few chances of rain showers and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend.

2) Watching potential for a stalling front late this weekend into early next week that could bring more persistent rainfall which may be heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong ridge of high pressure south of the region keeps zonal flow over the area today with westerly flow. A shortwave tough is moving through this morning kicking off a line of showers over central NY. Once this line moves through there could be another push of morning showers. A weak cold front is expected to move through the region later this afternoon and into this evening with potential to kick off a few more showers. Overall CAMs show isolated showers possible throughout the day, but confidence on where exactly these develop is uncertain. Overall most of today should lean dry with highs warming into the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

A more organized low is expected to track over the region on Thursday bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Initially a warm front will move through in the morning with a cold front following after. If the timing of the frontal passage trends later, there could be a low severe thunderstorm risk with greater than 30 knots of shear in place. Precipitable water values range 1.5-1.75 inches, with a warm could depth of 11-12k feet, so any thunderstorms or showers that do form along the front will have heavy rain. Highs again will warm into the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Surface high pressure builds back into the area by Friday allowing dry conditions to persist through Saturday morning. Northwest flow also settles in with cooler temperatures, highs will range in the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another system approaches the region this weekend as the ridge begins to recede and a low pressure system advances from the Midwest. Much of Saturday should remain dry, though an approaching warm front may bring increasing chances for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport abundant moisture into the region through Sunday. The pattern then becomes increasingly unsettled as the frontal boundary stalls near the northern periphery of the southeast ridge, with a series of waves tracking along it into early next week. The exact placement of this boundary remains uncertain, which will ultimately determine where the heavies precipitation occurs. However model guidance continues to suggest the potential for several rounds of rainfall. Temperatures will remain cool through the weekend into early next week, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A swath of overcast skies is currently present across CNY, bringing MVFR ceilings to many areas. These conditions should last into the early evening.

Some patchy clearing this evening into the early overnight hours combined with light boundary layer winds and high moisture at the surface will allow for fog to develop across the region. The best chance for IFR and lower restrictions will be at ELM, where guidance has LIFR fog settling in through most of the night, then lifting to IFR as some moderate rain showers move in thru the morning hours. ITH/BGM/SYR/RME are showing some signs for fog development and IFR restrictions tonight as well, but confidence is not high enough to include IFR fog at this time. These terminals should see IFR restrictions set in when rain moves overhead during the early morning hours, and keep these restrictions through the morning hours. Timing of rain onset is still a little uncertain, with the possibility of some scattered showers ahead of the main swath of rain. If rain moves in earlier, IFR restrictions should start earlier.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Scattered showers and associated restrictions develop.

Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions, especially in the afternoon.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.