textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No major changes made to the previous forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Near average temperatures and drier this weekend into early next week.
2) Mid next week there is the potential for a stronger area of low pressure to pass north of the Great Lakes and bring a seasonably strong cold front through.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
With the central US ridge retrograding back to the west, the trough that is over New England is moving into the eastern Great Lakes region. While it is still on the warmer side today, dry air aloft is mixing down with dew points steadily falling early this afternoon. There is still a small chance at some shower and thunderstorm development, mainly for the far western Twin Tiers into NEPA. Cooler air aloft tomorrow and still some residual moisture could result in a couple of showers developing in the afternoon, mainly over the Catskills. The Saturday through at least Tuesday, surface high pressure builds in as well likely keeping the region dry. Day time highs will be right around seasonable averages with morning fog developing in the valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Wednesday into Thursday next week will have a deeper shortwave trough progressing through the Northern Tier of the US. Ensemble member MSLP means and low pressure centers are hinting at a stronger surface low developing and passing north of the Great Lakes. With most of the ensemble members keeping the low to the north, not much precipitation is anticipated outside of when the cold front moves through. Deterministic models do have a stream of higher PWATs and dew points advecting north ahead of the front so depending on timing of the fronts passage, there could be some stronger storms along it.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon across the region and expected to remain VFR at all terminals through at least 6Z. After 6Z, fog begins to develop with highest confidence of IFR or worse at ELM but BGM, ITH, and RME could see some IFR restrictions with fog. Fog will lift shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions expected tomorrow at all terminals after 14Z.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.
Wednesday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.