textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy fog was added along and behind the shortwave that moves through tonight. Temperatures were modified Wednesday and Wednesday night with more weight given to the NAM. With this change, precipitation types and snowfall amounts were also modified.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a quiet day, a shortwave will bring scattered showers to the region tonight. Following the showers, patchy fog will be possible through mid-morning Tuesday.

2) Mild conditions expected through midweek. A system will bring widespread precipitation to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3) Temperatures then trend cooler through the latter half of the week, especially during the weekend. Additional systems will bring potential for precipitation across the region late in the week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Early this morning, a low pressure system has brought some light snow showers to the Wyoming Valley and Poconos. As this system drifts out to sea, snow will gradually end prior to sunrise. With what has fallen and what will still fall, total accumulations range from less than an inch up to 2 inches. A weak wave to the north is just clipping Oneida County with some flurries.

Following the departure of these two systems, high pressure will keep conditions dry through the daytime. Temperatures will climb into the 30s and 40s. Overnight, another shortwave will drop in and sweep across the region with scattered showers. For most, this will be rain. However, as the system drifts eastward and temperatures cool, there will be potential for localized areas of a wintry mix and/or freezing rain. No significant ice accumulations are expected but a light glaze on untreated surfaces cannot be ruled out. Even where precipitation will be just rain, there will be potential for black ice as surfaces temperatures fall near and below freezing overnight. With warm rain passing over a cold snowpack, fog is likely to follow and not clear until midday Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek as weak ridging begins to build into the region Tuesday. Highs will continue to be in the 30s and 40s with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. High pressure and drier air will keep conditions dry through Tuesday and part of Tuesday night. Then, a low pressure over the Midwest will lift a frontal boundary through the region early Wednesday morning bringing widespread rain to the region throughout the day and into the overnight hours. With colder air to the north, snow will be possible over the Mohawk Valley and Tug Hill to start. Then as temperatures cool overnight, rain will transition back to snow in these areas. There may even be a line of mixed precipitation with localized areas of freezing rain, though exact locations will depend on the track of this system and temperatures. With these set ups, the NAM usually handles them well, so the NAM was blended with NBM for temperatures and dew points. This change then impacts the precipitation types and snowfall expected. Where snow is possible, 1 to 2 inches will be possible, though some of that is likely to melt during the day with snow changing to rain. Of course, there does remain some uncertainty with this system, so changes to the forecast between now and then will be possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Thursday is trending drier with the return of high pressure, though a couple of models hang onto some lingering showers. Conditions will stay somewhat mild through the end of the work week, though there will also be a slight cooling trend. The end of the week is a bit more uncertain. Models are showing another low pressure system over the Midwest that lifts into the Great Lakes on Friday. As it does, a coastal low forms and potentially absorbs the inland system. Warm air will briefly surge north before colder air filters in following these systems. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with these systems between guidance, especially in the timing. Quicker solutions like the GFS have another system developing over the weekend while slower solutions keep precipitation around longer. With a surge of colder air over the Northeast, there is potential for temperatures to remain below freezing heading into next week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

MVFR/Fuel Alt cloud decks expected across the region this morning into the afternoon hours. Guidance is showing some low chances for IFR at ITH and BGM but confidence in this occurring is too low to include in the TAFs.

Light rain showers are expected to move through the area this evening into the overnight hours, with patchy fog filling in after midnight. ITH/BGM/RME should see IFR restrictions from the fog. AVP/ELM/SYR have signals for IFR but confidence is not high enough to include in this TAF set.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Lingering MVFR Ceilings possible, especially in the morning. Becoming VFR for PA and NY southern tier terminals by afternoon. Confidence moderate.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...MVFR restrictions likely and IFR possible for much of the area with rain moving through; especially on Wednesday. Confidence moderate.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, with just a slight chance for a few rain showers around at times. Confidence low to moderate.

Friday: Rain likely with associated restrictions. (could mix with snow north, near RME. Confidence low to moderate.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.