textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The Nor'easter will continue to bring rain showers to the region through Monday. Breezy winds are also expected through this evening.

2) High pressure builds into the region Tuesday with quiet weather expected midweek. A frontal system will bring the next round of rain late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The center of the Nor'easter has just moved on shore. This has pushed the main rain band northwest over the Mohawk Valley, Finger Lakes Region, and central portions of the Southern Tier. Elsewhere, steady rain has ended though drizzle and fog have taken its place. MRMS shows some additional scattered showers over downstate NY and NJ with an area of widespread rain about to push onshore. With the low not moving much anytime soon, rain will continue this afternoon and through the overnight hours. The low begins to weaken later today resulting in the breezy winds gradually becoming calmer tonight. Some clearing in sky cover across north-central NY may lead to fog development. On Monday, the low will finally slide up the coast as it continues to weaken. That will keep the highest rain chances along and east of I-81. Additional rainfall between now and early Monday evening will be less than a half inch across the region.

High pressure will slowly build into the region behind the departing system Monday night, though there may be some stray showers as weak waves try to take advantage of wraparound moisture. Otherwise, winds will become calm and model soundings show low-level moisture in addition to any moisture added from recent rainfall. This will likely lead to widespread fog and/or low stratus Monday night into Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will continue to build into the region on Tuesday. This will bring a stretch of quieter weather conditions through midweek. Southwest to westerly flow will advect in much warmer air and push daytime highs into the 70s. Valley locations may even reach 80 on Thursday.

Rain will return late in the week though there remains uncertainty with timing. A broad low pressure system will set up over Canada. A frontal system will extend from the low all the way back into the Midwest. This frontal system will push in as early as Thursday night and move through on Friday. While there are some timing differences, model guidance favor high pressure building in early Saturday behind this front's departure which would favor a dry yet cooler start to the weekend. High pressure will stick around into Sunday though just how long it can delay the arrival of the next system remains uncertain.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A period of light to moderate rain is moving east to west across the area early this afternoon with MVFR visibilities. After this rain, expect periods of light rain and drizzle to continue into the evening and likely overnight. CIGs will gradually lower, becoming IFR to low end MVFR by 20z, then mainly IFR after 23/24z this evening. SYR and RME look to remain far enough north to see generally only MVFR restrictions (although can't rule out a short, tempo period of IFR restrictions at these two sites). Widespread IFR continues at the rest of our TAF sites through the overnight and all of Monday morning. There could also be intermittent fog/mist/drizzle bringing occasional IFR visibilities overnight and early Monday morning.

Winds will be out of the NNW-NNE today sustained at 05-11kts with gusts of 12-20kts across much of the region. Winds should lighten by the evening hours, and remain under 10 kts overnight into Monday.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Monday night...showers will continue with IFR ceilings and possible reductions to VSBY at times as well in showers.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR after morning IFR restrictions on Tuesday. Morning fog in the favorable areas will be possible, causing localized restrictions.

Friday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions. Moderate confidence.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.