textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances adjusted for Sunday as CAMs precip onset slightly earlier than global models. Frost introduced to the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure brings dry and seasonable conditions through Sunday morning.

2) Scattered light rain showers possible on Sunday and Sunday night for portions of the area. Much colder air arrives early next week, with freezing temperatures possible Monday night and Tuesday night. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure sliding in from the Great Lakes will allow for a wonderful Saturday across the region. Northerly flow will keep temperatures pleasant today, topping out in the low to mid 60s which is about average for this time of year. A few fair weather cumulus clouds are expected across portions of the area this afternoon, dissipating by sundown. With high pressure and light winds tonight, temps will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s across the region. The high pressure system will slide east of the area as the night progresses, bringing southerly flow back to the area by the early morning hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Sunday will see chances for rain from 2 different systems riding one broad longwave trough sitting over the region. The first system will be a low moving up the eastern seaboard, generating scattered light rain showers across NEPA into the Catskills. These showers are forecast to start by mid-morning and last into the late afternoon hours. The second system will be a low tracking across Ontario that will push a pre-frontal trough into the northern portion of the CWA that could kick off some scattered rain showers cold front into the area Sunday evening. The main chance for rain showers however will be from a this low pressure system dragging a cold front through the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Best chance for rain will be along and north of the Mohawk Valley, but isolated showers may develop through the Finger Lakes into portions of the Southern Tier. CAA behind the front will allow for some lake effect rain showers to develop into portions of S Oneida county into Madison and E Onondaga. These showers could last into the early afternoon before another high pressure system moving in from the west cuts them off.

Temperatures during next week are going to start off cool as the high pressure system funnels cool and dry Canadian air into the region. Temps on Monday will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s Monday with highs on Tuesday only reaching the low to mid 50s for most with some upper 50s in the warmer valleys of NEPA. Lake effect clouds will also help keep afternoon temps cool as we expect them to develop on both Monday and Tuesday thanks to cold air at 850mb running over the warm waters of Lake America and the Finger Lakes. Lows on Monday night and Tuesday night will be some of the coldest of the season with widespread low to mid 30s expected. Even though portions of CNY have ended the growing season, frost was introduced into the forecast across much of the area as these two nights will could see the first widespread frosts of the fall season. A few of the colder spots could fall below freezing, especially across northern Oneida county where upper 20s are forecast. The ridge axis and associated surface high will slide east of the area by Wednesday morning, allowing for southerly flow to return and bring a warmer, more moist air back into the region. Temps look to be near normal through the rest of the week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through most of the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Sunday), with a few exceptions. First, valley fog is expected to develop at KELM late tonight/early Sunday morning, which will bring IFR-or-worse visby restrictions. The extent/duration of this fog is a bit uncertain though, as higher clouds will be streaming into the area. These clouds are expected to eventually result in MVFR ceiling restrictions at KELM and KAVP by Sunday late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...Occasional MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions possible along with isolated to scattered rain showers.

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.