textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered snow totals in portions of CNY for Monday. Timing the potential for pockets of freezing rain Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Round of light snow with clipper on Monday.

2) Freezing rain possible in spots Tuesday night.

3) What starts off as a gradual thaw Wednesday through Friday may get abruptly warmer with rapid snow melt Saturday. Higher uncertainty with temperatures Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

A clipper system is still expected to track across northern portions of the region on Monday. Lift and moisture still looks sufficient for a period of light snow near and north of the track. Some higher winds aloft and warmer temperatures should keep the snow ratios lower than most events recently. Also, the QPF from the NBM looked like a high outlier compared to the Hires guidance. Overall, a sharper cutoff with totals with 1-3 inches near the NY Thruway to dustings in NEPA.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next in a series of systems has trended slightly stronger,faster and further north Tuesday night. Temperatures around 850 mb look to warm fairly rapidly ahead of this system leading to either freezing rain or rain based on surface temperatures. Some higher elevations in the western Catskills, NEPA and northern Oneida county have the best chance for a period of freezing rain and light ice accumulations. QPF is modeled slightly higher due to the terrain in N.Oneida, so a tenth of an inch or so of ice could be realized there.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A gradual thaw should occur Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures staying in the 30's and 40's. However, ensemble guidance continues to warm well into the 40's Friday and Saturday. Model guidance is trending toward a deeper low tracking well west of the region which would bring 50's for temperatures and dewpoints Saturday. Given some uncertainity our forecast stays closer to the NBM/ensemble guidance but if some of the operational model runs are realized a very rapid snowmelt would occur Saturday up north. Periods of rainfall could factor in as well to any flooding potential. Will have to watch for potential ice jams too.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Ongoing lake effect snow will continue to impact central NY through the late evening. The best chances for snow will be at SYR and ITH, though it will be light, so visibilities should not be reduced much. However, some MVFR ceilings hang over most of the central NY terminals and that will be the case for most of this TAF period. There will occasionally be brief periods of VFR conditions before a clipper system moves into the region around 12z. This clipper system will bring snow to the region as well as lower visibilities and ceilings. The uncertainty is at AVP. Our forecast has chances for snow but some of the newest short range guidance keeps snow just to the north. For now, a tempo group was added for snow and restrictions beginning at 14z for a best estimate of when snow, if any, were to pass through. Once this clipper system moves Monday afternoon, conditions improve to VFR.

Winds are expected to become light and variable overnight. Winds will be southerly at around 5 kts as the aforementioned system moves through during the morning hours. Behind this system, winds become slightly breezy with gusts as high as 15 kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...A chance of rain/snow showers and possible restrictions.

Thursday...High pressure with VFR conditions.

Friday...Possible restrictions with rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.