textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The heaviest rainfall is forecast to be northwest of our region. However, another wave of moisture will impact the Poconos and southern Catskills, so QPF amounts have been increased in these areas. Amounts have been slightly lowered across Central New York and the Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled conditions return today into Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible as a slow moving frontal boundary crosses the region.

2) A warm and humid pattern will be in place mid to late week next week, with chances for showers or thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Moisture will increase today with warm southerly flow out ahead of an approaching frontal system. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected today through Monday as the slow- moving frontal boundary, and a supporting upper level trough push through. The heaviest rainfall concerns are going to be across the southern Catskills and Poconos. Monticello in Sullivan County has an impressive heavy rainfall forecast model sounding, especially from midnight tonight through early Monday morning. PWATs exceeding 2", short Corfidi vectors and a deep warm cloud depth brings some cause for concern, especially since this area recently saw heavy rains just a few days ago.

Potential for localized flash flooding seems highest in this area overnight into early Monday. Instability also increases overnight into Monday, with long skinny CAPE through a saturated column, so with all these ingredients in place, there will be potential for intense rainfall rates and with the short Corfidi vectors, training of cells will be possible. However, some model guidance is suggesting the heaviest precipitation will also stay south of this area, so due to low confidence, decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now.

The slow-moving cold front looks to exit the area by Monday afternoon and evening as winds shift to the northwest and drier air funnels in later in the day and into Monday night. High pressure then builds in for a brief reprieve from the wet weather for Tuesday and possibly for some of the day on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After brief high pressure, several features could come together to increase chances for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday through the end of the work week. Moisture will increase again across the region as the Bermuda high is forecast to shift west, drawing up warm and humid air from the south. Another broad upper trough over the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will channel several short waves toward our region. Finally, a weakening cut off upper low over the Tennessee Valley looks to gradually drift northeast across the southern and central Appalachians later in the week. The next frontal boundary also looks to try to approach from the west in the Thursday-Friday time frame and perhaps stall a bit. So putting everything together, there will be daily chances for showers and storms with dew points anywhere from the mid 60s to as high as the mid 70s. This will lead to some very uncomfortable conditions with high temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s each afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Conditions will be VFR to start. Morning showers will become more widespread this afternoon and evening. There is also a chance for isolated thunderstorms. Guidance has slowed down the timing of how much ceilings will fall though with scattered decks of 2000 ft currently being observed at BGM and ELM, these changes may be a bit much. Still, ceilings will fall to at least MVFR later today with IFR/LIFR then expected overnight. Most of the rain will move out early Monday morning though low ceilings will linger.

South to southeasterly winds will pick up today with speeds of 10 to 15 kts and peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Winds will gradually calm tonight and become light and variable at most terminals.

Outlook:

Monday...Lingering isolated showers in the morning; restrictions improving throughout the day.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers and restrictions at AVP.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely and isolated thunder; associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.