textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Seasonably warm weather tonight into Friday morning as a strong area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Winds pick up ahead of the front Thursday afternoon with the breezy conditions expected most of Friday. As the front moves through Thursday night into Friday, rain is expected with a brief change over to snow once the front is through Friday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

The near term is looking warm as the upper level ridging strengthens ahead of a deep surface low moving through the northern plains. 925 and 850 mb winds increase as the upper level ridge axis moves east with a deepening trough approaching from the west. The high temperatures tomorrow are a bit uncertain as the 850 mb temperatures climb to near or above 10C. With the solstice right around the corner, there is low incoming solar radiation and with snow cover, it may be hard to really warm the boundary layer below the strong inversion created by the warm air advection in the low and mid levels. Still, we expect temperatures into the mid to upper 40s and may be even a few 50s by the afternoon. Winds aloft may also start to mix down and that could help with bringing some of that warmer air aloft down faster but given the stability in forecast soundings, that likely will not happen till the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As the deepening low moves into the Great Lakes Thursday night, the upper level trough associated with it becomes negatively tilted with a strengthening 250 mb jet. Precipitation moves in from both the south as a weak surface low moves up the Mid Atlantic as well as from the west as the cold front associated with the low approaches. With temperatures well above freezing, precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning will be rain.

Winds will be strong through the night with temperatures likely continuing to warm under the strengthening warm air advection after sunset. 850 mb winds top out at near 70 mph but forecast soundings show a strong inversion below the high winds. Historically, it is hard for S to SW winds to break through strong inversions outside of mountain and ridge tops as well as some downslope areas of the Finger Lakes. Wind advisories have been hoisted for now given the uncertainty in the downward mixing Thursday night into Friday.

As the front moves through Friday morning, the best chance to see higher winds will be along the line of showers with the front. Given the forcing in place aloft with the negatively tilted trough and being at the entrance of a strengthening jet streak aloft, there could be enough lift to get a few embedded thunderstorms along the front. Any deep convection could easily mix down the high winds aloft so there is a possibility of some severe showers late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Fridays temperatures will likely be falling all day as the front moves through in the morning with flow aloft becoming northwesterly. The cold air advection behind the departing front Friday will limit the amount of post frontal precipitation but a brief period of snow is likely before the precipitation comes to an end. Lake effect snow develops, though forecast soundings are not too favorable for inland extent. Upper level ridging is building in fast late Friday into Friday night with the subsidence inversion dropping down below 850 mb by Saturday morning will limit the depth of the snow bands, their intensity, and duration of the event.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The long term has flow aloft returning to a more zonal and fast pattern. Strong high pressure to the north may limit any warm ups without any deep troughs that develop in the central plains. The coldest air mass is still locked up in the northwest territories so any cold we get will be fairly seasonable as well. All the global models show several shortwaves moving through the Northeast this weekend into next week. However, without much moisture return, most of these shortwaves will be dry and mainly help with the development of some lake effect snow at times.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A cold front pushes through the area this afternoon and evening and will bring near MVFR ceilings at the Central NY terminals, with more persistent MVFR restrictions at KSYR and KRME.

Main impacts this forecast period will be developing LLWS out of the southwest at 35-40 knots tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Strong frontal passage with rain showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers along with associated restrictions. Strong LLWS likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Saturday...Mostly VFR

Saturday night through Monday...Scattered snow showers across Central NY with occasional restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.