textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this update. There remains low potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening west of the I81 corridor.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring a round of rain showers and thunderstorms today, especially late in the day and at night. A few thunderstorms may contain strong gusty winds and small hail, mainly west of I-81.

2) Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through at least the middle of next week. This warm weather, combined with multiple rounds of rainfall will bring an increasing risk for some flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The severe thunderstorms threat today will be dependent on what areas can break out of the clouds and garner some instability this afternoon. At this time, the best shot for clearing will be well west of the I81 corridor. SPC continues to highlight about half of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms, but confidence in that forecast is low at this time. Forecast model soundings show a strong low level inversion with low clouds likely below this inversion for much of the day. Further west, Steuben County will have the best chance to see any severe thunderstorms, as models show clearing skies there later this afternoon. While NAM model soundings keep the low level inversion in place through today across the entire CWA, the GFS soundings show the inversion breaking west of I-81, especially from around western Steuben County and northeastward into the Finger Lakes toward Syracuse Metro.

By this evening, a cold front will be advancing toward the area from the west, and latest CAMs are hinting at a QLCS developing with a round of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. PWATs rise to around 1.00 to 1.25 inches, so some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Even with an inversion in place, MUCAPE of 500 - 1000 J/kg along with 50-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear, could keep a line of storms organized, but not necessarily surface based as they cross the region.

If the low level inversion can mix out, like the GFS shows, then that will be our best opportunity to see a few severe thunderstorms. We will be monitoring this throughout the day, so stay tuned for updates.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Above average temperatures will be in place Sunday through midweek with high temperatures expected to be the 60s areawide Monday and Tuesday (with some valley locations making a run at 70 degrees Tuesday from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA). Dry conditions are largely expected through Tuesday. This should allow current river and stream rises from locally heavy rainfall later this afternoon and evening to recede a bit, before potential for more decent rises likely returns midweek. Rivers and streams will need close monitoring during this timeframe for potential flooding, including possible isolated ice jams.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A line of showers are expected to move through the region this afternoon and evening as a cold front passes over the region. There is potential to see some thunderstorms with this line, but forecast confidence is low on the intensity and areal coverage of these storms. Stronger thunderstorm potential mainly depends on whether our area sees clearing this afternoon.

IFR to MVFR ceilings this morning will eventually lift by early this afternoon and clouds could scatter out in the afternoon, which would bring brief improvements to VFR.

Showers and thunderstorms will be most impactful from about 22Z through 02Z and move west to east across the region.

LLWS is also expected today, as a 35-45kt low level jet moves overhead while surface winds remain southeast. Surface winds increase later today with gusts up to 20 knots.

Outlook:

Sunday...MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.