textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strengthening ridge of high pressure will be our main feature today and tomorrow leading to above average temperatures and increasing humidity. A few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow afternoon.

2) A cold front will bring the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, then cooler conditions return for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure anchored near Bermuda and a strengthening upper level ridge off the southeast coast will build northward today through tomorrow. This will allow southwesterly flow to settle over the region, promoting strong warm air advection and increasing dew points. As a result summer like conditions are expected for the start of the week with highs climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s. Forecast highs are near daily records, with record highs of 87 at KBGM both days, 93 Monday and 92 Tuesday at KAVP, and 90 Monday and 92 Tuesday at KSYR. Although yesterdays NBM guidance appeared too warm, observed high temperatures ended up closer to the NBM output than expected. However, with the NBM still running warmer than most guidance, the ongoing trend of slightly lowering maximum temperatures was continued for today and tomorrow, especially with NBM forecasting temperatures above daily records. As mentioned, dew points will be on the rise, reaching the low to mid 60s today and tomorrow, with some spots even reaching the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon, so the humidity will be noticeable.

However there remains some uncertainty in whether scattered clouds and isolated showers or thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon and early evening hours today and tomorrow as a couple of weak waves embedded in the flow around the ridge move through. Both the GFs and ECMWF continue to show an EML plume moving into the region this afternoon, with NAM guidance indicating CAPE values approaching 2000 J/Kg along with steep lapse rates. Despite the instability in place, model soundings continue to show a cap associated with the ridge axis overhead, which should largely suppress convective development. That said, if any storms are able to break the cap, the environment could support a few isolated severe storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with a cold front moving into the region on Wednesday. Model guidance continues to show the bulk of the convection moving through from midday through the afternoon. With the showers moving through earlier over the northwestern portion of our region, there will be a relatively large temperatures gradient with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s over the Finger Lakes region NY and highs in the low to mid 80s over the Pocono Mountain region PA. If everything can come together, some locally strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the afternoon and early evening especially across NE PA and the southern Catskills. Cooler temperatures follow behind the front with highs returning to the mid 50s to mid 60s by the second half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Current fog at ELM should dissipate before or very soon after 12z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the 12z TAF period.

Outlook:

Monday night...Mainly VFR; slight chance for afternoon isolated showers/thunderstorms with brief MVFR/IFR restriction possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.