textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures lowered slightly given clear skies and light winds. Also, some changes to temperatures and chances of rainfall throughout the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend warmer throughout much of the week, leading to an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday and last through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

We start off with high pressure moving across New England today bringing another pleasant day to the region. The high pressure then slides off the east coast on Tuesday setting up a warm south-southwest flow pattern which should last for most of the week. While starting off in the upper 70's and low 80's today, temperatures will start to slightly increase each day with the potential for some valley locations to reach the low 90's on Thursday. Conditions are expected to become muggier as well with lows for many locations in the mid and upper 60's by the end of the week. Our NBM guidance continues to show a very high temperature bias and was blended with Consall guidance to make the temperatures more in line with model consensus. Some uncertainity does exist as well with regards to if showers and thunderstorms will lower temperatures a bit after Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure should keep the region dry through Tuesday. However, a weak warm frontal boundary and mid-level trough should provide enough lift for a scattering of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Heights increase a bit Thursday which should lower the coverage of showers and thunderstorms compared to Wednesday. Model and ensemble timing still indicates a cold front moving toward the region Friday and Saturday. This would provide the lift to increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms a bit. This front may end up decaying over our region which would keep some isolated activity around Sunday.

Currently, it looks like heavy rainfall is the biggest threat from showers and thunderstorms with modeled PW values from 1.5-2 inches. Getting enough shear and instability at the same time for strong to severe thunderstorms is quite a bit more uncertain given we are still several days away.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period (at least through 06Z Tuesday), but there are a few exceptions. First, patchy fog is possible at KELM this morning which may bring occasional IFR visbys there prior to sunrise. Patchy fog may also briefly impact KSYR during the same timeframe, with MVFR visbys possible there. Also, stratus deck will likely bring some MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings at KITH and KBGM this morning. Any restrictions from fog/stratus will likely dissipate by 12Z, resulting in a return to VFR conditions area-wide.

Outlook:

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.