textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes made to the forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Quiet weather is anticipated Sunday before the pattern becomes active again Monday through the middle of the week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Weak high pressure builds in from the west tonight, which will allow for some clearing to occur along with winds diminishing...leading to enough raditional cooling to generate patch fog. After the fog mixes out on Sunday morning, the rest of the day should remain dry and quiet.
The early part of Monday should be mostly quiet as well, but the next round of showers and storms looks to move in from the west later in the day Monday. There is some indication that the remnants of a Midwest MCS could be tracking east through the southern Great Lakes Sunday night/Monday morning and eventually into NY/PA by Monday afternoon. An embedded upper short wave along with this convective system may help sustain the storms as they track to the east. This will require close watching as there could be remnants of an EML associated with this convection as well.
Chances for showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be on the lower side, but given the warm temperatures and high surface dew points, persistent cyclonic flow and sporadic weak short waves within the flow, any one period cannot be ruled out completely for thunderstorms.
A higher chance for showers and storms arrives Thursday with the arrival of a deep upper trough and associated stronger forcing. The weekend may be cooler and drier if this trough can kick east in time.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Any isolated showers or thunderstorms should stay away from all terminal sites for the evening hours. Fog and low stratus may once again try to develop overnight. Uncertainity is higher with the exception of KELM. IFR/LIFR fog is again a fairly confident forecast for KELM. Elsewhere, brief restrictions can not be ruled out from about 08-12Z. VFR on Sunday.
Outlook:
Sunday night through Monday morning...Mainly dry with VFR conditions expected.
Monday afternoon through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Restrictions with overnight fog/low clouds are also possible.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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