textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

QPF was lowered through the overnight and for this morning. Temperatures were also lowered below guidance for today and and tonight, but this will be dependent on how far north the front pushes later today and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain has been lighter than expected overnight, but still could see some minor hydro issues due to recent heavy rains.

2) Temperatures trend warmer through the start of the weekend before a cold front moves through Sunday with below normal temperatures to follow. Rain chances remain in the forecast through the weekend before cooler conditions could support light snow early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rainfall overnight has been fairly light and amounts will likely be a half inch or less for much of the Twin Tier. NAM continues to be overdone with QPF, but the HRRR seems reasonable, with anywhere from 0.3" to 0.4" for much of the area that the NAMNEST was advertising 0.75". Decided to leave the Flood Watch out until 8am, as a few gauges are very close to minor flood.

Scattered rain showers are expected for most of the daytime hours across central NY, but by this evening, showers become more isolated. Then overnight, mostly dry conditions are expected, though isolated showers and possibly thunderstorms will remain possible as the warm front moves north of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Much warmer conditions are expected on Friday with strong southwesterly flow that will continue into the weekend. We will get a taste of early summer, as temperatures surge into the upper 60s and 70s both Friday and Saturday. Unfortunately with disturbances still lingering in the region, there will be chances for off-and-on showers throughout this time as well. There will be enough instability and shear to support isolated afternoon thunderstorms, though severe storms are not expected at this time.

The warmer conditions will be short-lived as a strong cold front will sweep through the region early on Sunday. This will be the next best chance for widespread rain showers. While there will have been a couple of days to dry out, hydro issues may become a concern once again as PWATs will be elevated for this time of year with models showing at least 3 standard deviations above normal. What may help is the relatively quick timing of this front, but this system will be worth monitoring. Colder air is then quick to fill in behind the departing front as freezing to sub-freezing temperatures are forecasted for Sunday night. Wrap-around moisture and northwesterly flow will support light lake effect snow showers as well.

Lake effect snow will likely linger into Monday. Then a passing system will kick off light snow showers on Tuesday. The battle between winter and spring continues as temperatures fall below normal early next week with sub-freezing conditions possible during the overnight periods.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Much of the area is a mix of fuel-alt to IFR or worse this morning as light rain, drizzle and some fog remain over the region. SYR and RME are expected to be VFR to MVFR/fuel-alt over the next couple of hours as rain and lower ceilings push north. As the steady light rain tapers off to spotty showers and drizzle over the next few hours, low ceiling restrictions are expected to remain for much of the day with an east to east- southeast flow keeping plenty of moisture streaming into the area. Ceilings are expected to be fuel-alt to IFR or even below alt. mins on occasion. While guidance continues to show IFR or lower ceilings for much of the day at AVP, confidence in this remains low given the easterly wind and expected downsloping off the higher terrain so restrictions were kept slightly higher.

Winds are expected to increase this evening into tonight, shifting from southeast to a more southerly flow from east to west. Winds aloft will also increase during this time as a jet streak approaches, which can lead to some southwesterly LLWS of about 35 to 45 knots, especially at the NY terminals.

Outlook:

Friday through Saturday...Isolated to scattered rain showers and a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms; associated occasional restrictions possible.

Sunday...A frontal system approaches the region with additional showers and restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ022>025-044>046- 055>057.