textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

NBM 10th percentile temperatures were blended in for tonight to account for potential radiational cooling. Also added frost to the Wyoming Valley and Finger Lakes Region tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers taper off this morning, with a few spotty showers possible through the day. Conditions dry out this evening and overnight as skies clear, with much cooler temperatures and the potential for frost.

2) A cool airmass settles into place late this week through the weekend, which will lead to below normal temperatures, scattered showers, and the possibility for frost or freezing temperatures during the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered showers remain across the region as a cold front moves through early this morning. Behind the front, northwest flow develops and most showers diminish, although CAMs suggest a few isolated showers may linger into the afternoon. Cooler air filters into the region today, with highs in the 50s and lows dropping into the low to mid 30s tonight. Conditions dry out this evening and overnight, with skies gradually clearing. With clearing expected, NBM 10th percentile temperatures were blended in to account for potential radiational cooling. The growing season begins early tomorrow morning for the Finer Lakes Region and Wyoming Valley. Frost has been added to the forecast for these areas overnight. Although frost is possible, confidence was not high enough to issue an advisory at this time as winds are some what marginal tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will rotate eastward, sending multiple shortwaves through the region into the weekend. The first wave arrives Friday, bringing light rain during the day. This upper low also advects a cooler air mass into the region, with 850 mb temperatures dropping to around -5 degrees C by Saturday night. This introduces a small chance for snow showers across higher terrain in Central NY into the Catskills, particularly if precipitation lingers into the evening hours. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 30s through this period. With the growing season beginning in the Wyoming Valley and Finger Lakes Region, frost and freeze headlines may be needed at times this weekend into early next week. Frost was not included Friday and Saturday night due to uncertainty in cloud cover. Otherwise a weak ridge attempts to build into the region by midweek, allowing 850 mb temperatures to warm to around 10-13 degrees C by Wednesday afternoon. This should support a return to highs in the 60s from Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Post-frontal low ceilings and lingering low level moisture will result in widespread IFR restrictions this morning. Conditions will gradually improve to Fuel Alternate/MVFR by late this morning and then mainly VFR during the afternoon. Some of the Central NY terminals may keep the MVFR ceilings into the early evening.

Outlook:

Friday through Monday... Mainly VFR, but restrictions will be possible at times in isolated to scattered showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.