textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast package. While weekend weather appears quiet tonight through midday Sunday, confidence is increasing for another round of storms Sunday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Pleasant weather conditions are expected through at least midday Sunday, until the next chance for showers and storms appears likely to wrap up the weekend Sunday afternoon and evening.

2) Benign weather expected through around mid-week next week, before an upper level trough will support the next weather system to bring rain showers and storms starting Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After the passage of a cold front yesterday, relative humidity values will become much more comfortable for the start of the weekend, with dew points mixing down into the low to mid 50s under a dry air mass. Surface high pressure is expected to hold through at least Sunday morning, before the next system is expected to bring rain showers and storms heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the system, we'll see moisture advecting in, and daytime heating will help increase instability, with current modeled values are around 500-1000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear around 40-50 knots. With these ingredients, there's potential for strong to severe storms to ride along the frontal boundary Sunday afternoon through evening, with the main threats being strong to damaging winds and hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Going into next week, an upper level trough situated over Canada will be the driver for the upcoming week's weather. For the first portion of the week, slightly below average to average temperatures can be expected, with weak surface ridging keeping chances for precipitation low. However, the next system begins to form off of this trough, swinging a large frontal boundary into the area mid-week. Active weather is expected starting Wednesday, and likely stretching through the end of the week as the trough helps to propagate shortwaves into the area, bringing chances for showers and afternoon storms. Temperatures increase through the week thanks to relative southwesterly flow.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at all of our terminals. Just a few mid or high level clouds from time to time over the area for the next 24 hours, otherwise clear skies expected.

Wind are light and variable early this morning, becoming west northwest at 6-15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible in the afternoon hours. Winds quickly diminish and turn southerly, less than 5 kts after sunset into tonight.

Outlook:

Sunday morning...Mainly VFR.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday...Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions likely Sunday afternoon-evening, followed by lingering low clouds/fog late Sunday night-early Monday morning.

Midday Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, but an isolated shower is possible Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.