textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10PM for some of our central Southern Tier NY counties (as far east as Chemung County), through our Finger Lakes counties, and northeastward to Oneida County. It is possible additional counties may be added at a later time if the severe weather threat progresses east of there.

Also adjusted temperatures downward another few degrees for this afternoon as extensive cloud cover continues to limit heating.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front moving through the area will bring thunderstorms to the area late this afternoon through the early evening. Some of these thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging winds or hail.

2) Dry weather is expected to return for Monday and Tuesday, before an upper level trough will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms starting on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extensive cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front continues to keep the atmosphere relatively stable early this afternoon. As of 2PM, the trough and associated cold front is still over the Great Lakes. There is some partial clearing across parts of Western NY and Western PA and if this partial clearing is able to make it into Central NY/Northeast PA, we could quickly see some destabilization, although still not much compared to what we would usually see for severe weather setups this time of the year. The main driver for the potential line or broken line of severe thunderstorms to develop this evening is strong shear (0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50kts and localized pockets over 50kts). This could result in locally damaging winds, especially in any bowing segments.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10PM for some of our central Southern Tier NY counties (as far east as Chemung County), through our Finger Lakes Counties, and northeastward to Oneida County. It is possible additional counties may be added at a later time if the severe weather threat progresses east of there.

Any lingering showers or thunderstorms quickly move east of the area late this evening and especially after midnight. By the early morning hours (after 3AM) the entire area should be rain-free, leading to a dry day on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the strong cold front passage, we will get a taste of fall- like weather in mid-June on Monday. High temperatures will only be in the lower 60s to lower 70s, with dew points falling to the 40s for most of the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected, so it will be a pleasant (but cool) mid-June day. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday (highs in the 70s), but dew points will remain in the 40s, leading to low humidity levels.

The weather begins to turn more active again starting on Wednesday as multiple shortwaves pivoting around longwave trough over Canada will move into the Northeast. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday right through the end of the week. While exact timing remains uncertain this far out and there will be dry breaks in between each shortwave, Thursday appears to be the most active day at this time as a potent shortwave moves through and more moisture and humidity advects back in.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through most of the afternoon. By late this afternoon/early evening a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the area. Continued with TEMPO groups for TSRA for each terminal, but fine-tuned the timing of each group to the two-hour window where thunderstorms are most likely. In any thunderstorms, brief IFR visbys will be possible due to the heavy downpours.

After the thunderstorms move out, post-frontal lowering of ceilings is expected, which will bring at least MVFR/Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions to all terminals. IFR restrictions will be possible as well, especially at KRME, KITH, and KBGM. A return to mainly VFR conditions is expected for all terminals by late Monday morning/early afternoon, with KRME likely holding onto the restrictions the longest and KAVP/KELM likely turning VFR the quickest.

Outlook:

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple disturbances pass through; associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.