textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast package. Extreme Heat Warnings continue through Friday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity becomes unhealthy and dangerous in some areas for the rest of this week.

2) Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms could occur through the week and into the weekend. Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible within the favorable warm and humid conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build northward through the region over the next couple of days. Humidity will increase a bit as well with the moist west-southwest flow.

Most locations should get into the low and mid 90s this afternoon, coupled with the humidity this should get the top heat index values above 100 to locally 110 degrees this afternoon. Thursday looks like the warmest day with indications a few locations may hit 100 degrees for the high temperature. Temperatures then should drop slightly Friday, but still remain very hot and muggy. Modeling shows a cold front bringing potential relief to the heat wave by the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Modeling continues to have a poor handle on the potential for storms. Conditions are currently very ripe for storm development, with many areas across the region already seeing dewpoints in the mid-70s. We'll continue to see the ridge-riding MCS systems coming in from Canada, with their timing and placement having low confidence. Though, we will be able to see them well ahead of time, as they typically ride along the top of the ridge and drop southward into our area. A cold front looks to sag south into the region for the weekend increasing the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but also dropping dewpoints.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pop up showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the next few hours with most of the terminals nearby convection. TEMPO groups are in through 03Z for thunderstorms at most terminals which can lead to brief downpours and 2-3 mile visbys. There is also a more defined line of storms skirting along Lake Ontario moving eastward and if it continues on the same trajectory would impact SYR and RME roughly between 01Z-02Z.

With the fresh rainfall this afternoon and evening at RME and ITH, light winds and soundings showing a shallow inversion, some patchy fog is possible early tomorrow morning.

VFR conditions are expected much of the time tomorrow with increasing westerly winds which can gust to around 20 knots during the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon and evening. RME and SYR may have the best chance of seeing any pop up convection, but confidence is too low to include at this time.

Outlook:

Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected; isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.

Friday through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018) 7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/1 and 7/2 are at or just over the daily records.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.