textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered a few degrees below guidance for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday as the next frontal systems moves through. A few storms may be strong to severe.

2) Conditions will be dry for most of the week. Temperatures will be around average for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad upper level trough will set up over the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. The surface low over Canada will drag the next frontal system through. A surge of moisture ahead of the leading warm front will help support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Following the warm front, a cold front will eventually push through, though the timing of its passage remains a bit uncertain. Still, models are showing fairly widespread precipitation ahead of it. Model guidance varies greatly on instability Tuesday afternoon, ranging from just a few hundred to over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong flow aloft will enhance the shear with values expected to be 40 to 50 kts based on most guidance. Even with the wide range of instability values, conditions look favorable for another round of strong to severe storms. While all hazards look to be possible, the highest confidence is with strong gusts being the main concern. The Storm Prediction Center maintains an outlook for the region.

PWATs will range from 1.5 to 2 inches and warm cloud depths will be 10 to 12 thousand feet, which would favor heavy rainfall at times. Training of thunderstorms would also be a concern. WPC highlights the area in their ERO valid for Tuesday. Given that some locations received over 2 inches of rainfall with the last storm system, antecedent conditions will be more favorable for localized hydro issues in poor drainage areas despite a couple of dry days in between.

The upper level trough will dig over the Great Lakes and bring a trailing shortwave through on Wednesday that will support additional showers. High pressure and drier air will build in as the trough slides east, cutting off any remaining showers by Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday night. Patchy, valley fog is expected tonight into Monday morning as winds will eventually become calm. Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year, though there will be days with slightly below normal temperatures, especially following the passage of the cold front midweek. Daytime highs throughout the week will be in the 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s and low 60s, though with the southerly flow present midweek, tomorrow night and Tuesday night will be a bit more mild.

Surface high pressure will be in control for the second half of the week, limiting any potential shower activity. The exception would be the start of the weekend when another front approaches the region, though even then, the drier conditions may be too much to overcome. While it remains uncertain if wildfire smoke will return at all this week, the pattern of a ridge out west and trough in the east would be favorable flow for off-and-on smoke over the Northeast.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR through the TAF period with the exception of some fog around sunrise at KELM. Still some uncertainity with the type and duration of the restrictions. Window looks to be around the typical 06-13Z. Light and variable winds as well.

Outlook:

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

Thursday and Friday... Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.