textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dewpoints for this afternoon into tomorrow morning based on current obs and model trends over the past day.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Isolated light rain showers possible along and north of the Mohawk Valley Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The ridge of high pressure that has been parked over the area for the last 10 days will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the weekend.

On Wednesday, the ridge axis will slide east of the region, allowing a return of SW flow and warmer air pushed into the region. Near normal temps today in the low to mid 50s will climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s Wed, topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s by Thursday.

A low pressure system will track along the northern edge of the ridge across Ontario Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area Thursday night. This front, combined with the warm airmass over the area could allow for some rain showers to develop across the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county during the overnight hours. Boundary layer moisture may be too low for precipitation to reach the ground, causing virga instead. If we do get a higher influx of moisture that allows for rain to hit the ground, only a trace to a few hundreths of an inch are expected.

Temps behind the front will be cooler for Friday and the weekend, but still above normal for the end of October. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all terminals with light and variable winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM possible each morning. Low chance for showers at KSYR and KRME Thursday night with a cold front moving through.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.