textproduct: Binghamton
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
Some adjustments with shower chances over the next couple of days. Only minor changes for later this week at this time.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Cooler and wetter weather pattern this weekend into early next week.
2) Watching the potential for a stronger low or noreaster to potentially form late this week into next weekend.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold air continues to slowly filter in over the Great Lakes and with the flow more northwesterly, some lake effect rain showers likely develop. Day time temperatures will be around climatological averages for mid november (50's) though cloud cover at night will keep lows a little warmer than average (30's-40). Additional rainfall amounts with the lake effect showers today will be mostly light, with less than a tenth of an inch expected for most of the area. NEPA may miss out on most of the precipitation tonight into tomorrow.
An additional shortwave dives out of the NW on the back side of the exiting shortwave trough that brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air. 850 mb temps drop back to just below 0C allowing for more lake effect rain showers to develop. The flow may allow these to continue into Wednesday as the rest of the region dries out a bit.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Not much overall change in the overall setup for later this week. A clipper type system looks to track into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday. This feature then potentially translates to a miller-b coastal off of the Mid- Atlantic by Friday. The 00Z operational ECMWF and GFS runs (11/8) represent the northern end of the ensemble spread with some other member tracks well south of the region. Uncertainity remains high with the details but continue to feature chances of rain and snow Thursday and Friday with some rain and snow showers lingering into Saturday on the backside of the low. For measurable snow, higher elevations are still favored if the low track is just south of the region. This would allow enough cold air/dynamical cooling to occur with precipitation.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Current restrictions and scattered rain showers will continue for the next few hours. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR going into the late morning/early afternoon hours.
Outlook...
Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Showers and possibly restrictions return Sunday night.
Monday...Lingering showers and possible restrictions, mainly in the morning.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.
Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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