textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A clipper system will bring periods of accumulating snow and mixed precip to the area today. Lake effect snow and much colder temperatures are expected behind this system heading into Thursday and Friday. Periods of snow showers and well below average temperatures continue for the upcoming weekend across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A strong low-pressure clipper system will move through the region today into tonight, bringing a round of wintry precipitation. A quick burst of accumulating snow is expected from the morning through midday, with Northern Oneida County likely seeing the highest totals. Most areas, however, should pick up at least some snow before warmer air arrives and allows rain to mix in at lower elevations during the afternoon. Because this event is highly dependent on both temperature and elevation, the challenge will be determining how sharp the snowfall gradient becomes and where it sets up. This will greatly impact snow totals in the advisory areas.

Steady snow will spread in from the southwest this morning as warm air advection increases. Temperatures aloft will remain below freezing initially, so the early precipitation will fall primarily as snow. As temperatures rise later in the day, the snow will gradually transition to a wintry mix, or even rain in the valleys, with the highest probability of this occurring across northeast Pennsylvania. There is also some potential for freezing rain, particularly in the Wyoming Valley late this morning into early afternoon, where slightly above freezing air aloft could lead to light icing. While some brief glaze is possible in northeast Pennsylvania, current trends suggest that any icing should remain limited and short-lived.

Confidence in snow amounts is greatest over Northern Oneida county where a winter storm warning remains in effect. Advisories are in effect over east central NY and northeast PA where a few inches of snow is expected, but confidence is not as high due to variable temperatures and elevation differences. Snow and valley rain gradually tapers off late this afternoon. A sharp cold front passes west to east in the evening bringing in another shot of cold air. As a result temperatures again fall back below freezing. Wrap around snow showers and lake effect enhanced snow showers develop over central NY heading into tonight. With northwest flow a lake effect band sets up over Onondaga, Madison, and South Oneida.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Lake-effect snow will continue into Thursday as a cold air mass and persistent northwest flow remain in place. Temperatures at 850 mb are expected to fall to around -15 C by Thursday afternoon, and model soundings show deep moisture through the dendritic growth zone along with strong lift. This combination points to highly efficient snow production and potentially high snowfall rates. A Winter Storm Watch for lake-effect snow remains in effect from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning, as confidence in the exact placement of the heaviest band and final snow totals is still not high enough to upgrade to a warning. Across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, scattered snow showers, and even brief snow squalls, are possible Thursday. Soundings also indicate that strong winds will mix down to the surface, making the day quite gusty with winds of 30 to 40 mph. This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue Thursday night, and lake-effect activity will linger into Friday as northwest flow persists. A weak disturbance moves in Friday evening, which should disrupt the lake-effect pattern but may also bring a slight chance of additional snow showers.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The pattern remains active through this period, with temperatures staying below average. Another clipper system and its accompanying cold front will move into the region on Saturday, bringing another push of colder air along with additional snow showers. In the systems wake, northwest flow will return, allowing lake effect snow showers to redevelop. Model guidance indicates that 850 mb temperatures could drop to between -17 C and -20 C, supporting continued lake effect activity into Monday. There are early indications that a ridge may begin to build over the region by the middle of next week, but confidence in this pattern change remains low.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Ceilings are slowly lowering close to MVFR ahead of the incoming low pressure system. Snow is expected to move in from west to east starting around 10z. IFR restrictions are expected to quickly follow at all CNY terminals, lasting through the day as snow changes to a mix of rain and snow at lower elevations. AVP should see IFR restrictions during the afternoon hours. Broad snow exits in the evening with lingering showers remaining. A mix of IFR and MVFR Ceilings will remain. SYR and RME should see snow showers a through the end of the TAF period, keeping conditions IFR.

LLWS of 35-40kts up to FL020 will be present across the area for a few hours tonight, picking up again around sunrise and through the morning hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Restrictions likely in lake effect snow showers and squalls, especially at SYR and RME.

Friday through Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers. Period of steadier accumulating snow possible Saturday night for KAVP, perhaps into KELM and KBGM as well.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ017-018- 036-037-044>046-057-062. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NYZ018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ056.