textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added fog for the ongoing overnight period. Next shower chance trending a bit faster for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cooler and drier airmass coming into the region through Friday.

2) Some showers and thunderstorms around this weekend.

3) A warming trend early next week with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will slowly move through the region this morning. It will take a bit of time for the cooler and drier airmass to advect in behind the front. So, a warm Thursday is expected as highs push 80. Low temperatures do trend cooler tonight with clear skies under high pressure. Friday looks like a winner with sunshine and cooler temperatures as well. Will have to monitor the potential for some wind gusts around 20-25 mph later this afternoon and evening based on model soundings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure moves offshore which will begin the process of advecting warmer and moister air into the region. A warm front looks to be a focus for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. Lift with a weak cold frontal passage could be enough for a few additional showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. The warm front has trended slightly faster from previous updates.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A quick break with high pressure looks to occur Monday. Temperatures look to peak on Tuesday as modeled 925 mb temperatures suggest highs well into the 80's. There is a fairly large six standard deviation spread with temperatures in the ECMWF suite. However, thinking is still that the NBM will trend warmer as we get closer to Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement the next chance for showers and thunderstorms holds off till later Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rain showers are moving south and east, and will exit the area over the next few hours. Showers still possible at BGM and especially AVP through 08-09z early this morning. Otherwise, some bkn to ovc high level clouds are streaming SW to NE over the area, but slowly clearing from NW to SE. With the very high levels of moisture present, this could allow patchy fog and low ceilings to develop. Have included IFR/LIFR fog at ELM through 13z this morning, with IFR/LIFR CIGs at BGM through 11z. Elsewhere RME could see some tempo IFR CIGs through about 10z. The remaining taf sites (SYR, ITH and AVP) will see generally MVFR conditions through sunrise.

Conditions should improve as the fog burns off and CIGs lift to mainly VFR around the area by 13-14z this morning. Expected generally VFR conditions areawide for the rest of the day and into the evening hours. Some more bkn to OVC high clouds arrive after sunset into the evening hours; this will likely act to at least delay fog formation until after the end of this TAF period Friday morning.

Surface winds will pickup by late morning and afternoon, with gusts in the 15-24 knot range out of the west to northwest, especially between about 16-21z. Winds then quickly diminish, becoming light and variable this evening.

Outlook...

Late tonight...Mainly VFR; except restriction due to valley for likely at ELM.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building into the region. Morning fog will be possible.

Saturday night and Sunday...Restriction possible as frontal system approaches the region.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.