textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered forecast temperatures by a few more degrees for Sunday as confidence continues to increase in a cold air damming regime remaining in place. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were necessary with the afternoon forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The holiday weekend will be cool and rainy, with temperatures starting to trend warmer on Monday.

2) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry and warmer Tuesday through through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High clouds have overspread the area ahead of a slow moving low pressure system that will bring wet weather to the region this weekend. While some initial isolated showers or drizzle is possible this evening and overnight ahead of this system, the chances are greater than any rain holds off until after daybreak on Saturday as it will have to overcome some lower level dry air.

Saturday will pretty much be a washout most of the day as a widespread moderate rainfall is expected across the region. That being said, for areas north of I-88 and especially north of the NY Thruway corridor, the steadier rain will likely hold off until the afternoon. The breezy (10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph), cool easterly flow will keep temperatures locked in the upper 40s to lower 50s for much of the area...except the I-90 corridor should reach the lower 60s where the rain holds off much longer. Southeast winds peak Saturday evening into Saturday night, between 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph along the hilltops possible. Rainfall totals Saturday into Sunday are expected to range from about 0.50 to 1.25 inches over the region.

While Sunday will still feature showers, the bulk of the rain will depart the area to the east by the afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies will persist, although there may be some brief clearing Sunday afternoon for parts of the Finger Lakes Region. It will be another cool day with highs only in the mid 50s to lower 60s for most of the area. Parts of the Finger Lakes Region may reach the mid 60s if partial clearing does occur.

The next fast moving front comes through Sunday night and Monday morning with additional showers likely. Once this feature passes by, it may once again dry out Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be much warmer on Monday with highs in the 70s area-wide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Tuesday onwards next week, a ridge begins to build over the Central US, while an upper low develops over Quebec. Mostly dry conditions are expected through most of the week, but there will be the possibility for a few isolated showers at times. Temperatures will continue the warming trend with highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Slightly cooler conditions are expected for the end of the week, but still with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected for all terminals through most of the TAF period. Ceilings will start to lower from SW to NE early tomorrow morning, as rain showers push into the region. MVFR to IFR ceiling and visibility restrictions are possible at AVP/BGM/ITH/ELM at the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Saturday through Saturday night...Widespread rain showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Lingering scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.