textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered for tonight, mainly where skies will clear.

KEY MESSAGES

1) It will remain cool and dry through the first half of the weekend..

2) Showers return by Sunday as the pattern becomes more unsettled with several rounds of showers possible next week. Fall-like temperatures are also expected.&&

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

While skies were slow to clear this morning, skies are now sunny. Fair weather cumulus have developed but those will dissipate late today. Tonight, high clouds will move in from the north with clearing expected across north-central NY late tonight. Because of this, the high clouds should help keep temperatures from dropping off sharply except where skies eventually clear. Temperatures were lowered slightly in the Tug Hill and Wyoming Valley. This resulted in some areas dropping into the 30s tonight, though not quite cool enough for frost. Fog is also looking unlikely tonight as conditions will be too dry.

High pressure will stay in place to start the weekend. Some periods of sunshine will be possible. Temperatures will be cooler than today, only climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A low pressure system will approach the region from the west Saturday night, potentially kicking off some isolated to scattered showers ahead of it. Rain will become more widespread early Sunday morning and continues throughout the day as the low moves across the region. Some models are showing limited instability, so isolated rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out despite low confidence in any storms actually developing. WPC continues to highlight the region in a risk for excessive rainfall. Looking at guidance, PWATs will peak between 1.75 and 2 inches. Warm cloud depths will near 12k feet. Steady light to moderate rainfall is expected but the high PWATs and warm cloud depths are supportive for localized heavier showers.

Guidance is spread on exactly where the highest rainfall totals will be, though the general mean focuses on the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills. NBM guidance seems more reasonable during this update with 1 to 2 inches of QPF from early Sunday morning through early Monday evening with pockets of higher totals of 2+ inches. The exact locations of these higher amounts will depend on the system's track. The Twin Tiers would be most vulnerable to hydro issues as soil moistures are slightly above normal due to recent precipitation whereas northern areas of central NY were rated abnormally dry in the latest drought monitor. With all that said, confidence is low for any flash flood issues through some ponding in urban and poor drainage areas will be possible.

This low moves east of the region late Sunday night and drags a front south of the region. Behind this system, high pressure brings drier air back in for Monday. Being in zonal flow, some passing showers will be possible across portions of northeast PA and the Catskills. Broad surface high pressure centered of eastern Canada will then compete with additional disturbances Tuesday through Thursday. An upper low will develop over the Great Lakes region early in the week and still under zonal flow, showers will continue to move through the region. Just how far north these showers will be is uncertain with the high pressure to the north. The upper low will move little by Wednesday. East to southwesterly flow will advect Atlantic moisture inland, supporting showers midweek. The upper low becomes an open wave as a surface low develops over the Mid-Atlantic coast. This low will slide up the coast with the next round of showers on Thursday.

The first extended taste of fall is expected next week. Temperatures will only max out in the 50s and 60s before falling into the 30s and 40s at night.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR flight conditions this afternoon as fair weather cu covers most of the terminals. A brief reduction to MVFR CIGs can't be ruled out, but should be limited in coverage and time. Some breezy conditions with winds out of the northwest to north in the 5 to 10 kt range with some gusts to 15 kts possible.

Diurnally driven cu will dissipate this evening, being replaced by high and mid level clouds resulting in widespread VFR conditions for all terminals. Winds will weaken as well this evening and overnight, becoming light and variable. There should be enough dry air at the lower levels and clouds to keep fog potential very low, but some of the higher resolution guidance does suggest fog at ELM, given the low confidence, have left FG out for now.

Saturday, morning mid level clouds should dissipate with just FEW high clouds through the early afternoon resulting in VFR conditions. Mid level clouds will increase from southwest to northeast Saturday afternoon ahead of the next approaching system.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday through Wednesday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible. Uncertainty still remains for this forecast period.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.