textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered chances of rain showers later this morning and early afternoon across Poconos and Catskills as precipitation is moving out faster than modeled early this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry and cooler today and tomorrow before gradually warming up into the weekend with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The area of low pressure that brought the rain over the last 24 hours moves off shore this morning. Some areas of light rain or drizzle may linger through about 10am in the Catskills and Poconos but elsewhere, clouds will be scattering out and becoming partly cloudy from west to east. With the recent rain, fog development is likely over the next few nights with lighter winds, clear skies, and wet soils.

A weak trough moves in Thursday into Friday with southerly flow helping warm temperatures back to average or slightly above. Dew points will also be creeping up, but should stay below 65 so it wont feel too muggy. With the trough, there is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, some of the storms could be severe. Instability will be limited as forecast soundings indicate that there will be plenty of cloud cover during the day. Shear is looking strong, with ensembles between 30 and 50 knots of 0-6 km shear. Severe type is mainly looking like a wind threat, but forecast soundings do also show at least some curvature of the winds in the low levels so if enough instability can develop with low enough LCLs, there could be a small tornado risk.

Flow aloft remains zonal, with weak warm air advection at 850 mb through the weekend, helping to boost afternoon high temperatures. Widespread 80s and low 90s are looking more likely for the weekend into early next week. Dew points continue to slowly climb, with good chances of them remaining in the 60s so it will feel much more muggy with the heat. Cloud cover still looks widespread at least helping cap high temperatures lower than what may be possible with 850 mb temperatures approaching 20C by the end of the weekend. With the higher temps and moisture under zonal flow, there is bound to be at least 1 shortwave pass through on the weekend triggering thunderstorms but timing it this far out is difficult.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings this morning will lift to VFR by the early afternoon hours. High pressure will build into the area later today, which could generate fog and IFR and lower restrictions at ELM/BGM/ITH tonight. Confidence in this developing is too low at this time to include in the TAFs.

Outlook:

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.