textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure returns today with dry, sunny conditions.

2) A frontal system then moves through on Wednesday. Conditions will be mostly dry late in the week with widespread showers possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With high pressure building into the region skies will be mostly sunny with fog quickly burning off. Prior to the next batch of rain early Wednesday, fog will be possible once again Tuesday night.

Despite blue skies and sunshine, temperatures will only climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s today with lows tonight in the upper 50s and low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another cold front will drop through the region on Wednesday with the next round of scattered showers. As the front moves through, showers will fall apart and it is possible that southern areas of the region see no rain at all. Despite the early arrival and sunny skies in the morning, models have only modest instability for the region with 250-750 J/KG CAPE. Strong mid- level flow will enhance 0-6 km shear values to 30 to 50 kts. As usual, the mid- level lapse rates look to be minimal. So while thunderstorms will be possible along the front, confidence is low that there will be strong storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The front appears to trending slower with various model and ensemble guidance. As a result, confidence is a bit higher for some lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms in NEPA Thursday.

High pressure will stay in control though the start of the weekend. The next system approaches from the west Saturday night into Sunday. Guidance have a deepening trough with a stacked low developing over the Great Lakes. There are some differences on the low placement and that will impact how quickly this system passes through. This far out, the GFS/AIGFS are outliers with the system more north and much quicker with its departure. Currently we keep some shower chances through Monday on the backside of the low.

Temperatures will generally be cooler during the second half of the week. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s, though 40s will also be possible at times for the typically cool spots.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Fog is expected to dissipate this morning, with VFR conditions returning across the area by mid-morning and continuing through the TAF period. With high pressure, winds will also remain relatively light today out of the northwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered showers and chance of thunder with associated restrictions possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Passing system may bring restrictions to ELM/BGM/AVP. More widespread rain with associated restrictions possible on Saturday

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.