textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall little change to the previous forecast. Still looks to warm up higher than model guidance later this week with the very warm air aloft and drying soils.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong high pressure ridge sets up over the SE US with warm southerly flow keeping temperatures above average over the next week.

2) Potential for the pattern to turn wetter this next week as SW flow sets up with plenty of moisture moving into our region from the gulf.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure is moving off to the east today with SW flow strengthening. By later this afternoon, 850 mb temps climb above 10C and likely remain there or higher into next weekend. Ensemble probabilities of 850 temperatures above 15C is greater than 50% for most of the region with NEPA closer to 70% Tuesday through Thursday, which correlates well with 80+ degree high temperatures so there is good chances a lot of the region will see their first 80 degree readings of the year. Increasing dew points will also help keep overnight lows warm, likely staying 50+ for most of the week as well which will help progress green up.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With the warmth and increase in moisture, chances of rain also increase through the week, especially for NY. With the ridge of high pressure in the SE US slowly moving east through the week, the center of the surface and upper level high moves off shore opening up flow from the gulf. Frequent 500 mb shortwaves progressing over the top of the ridge triggers showers and thunderstorm development almost daily starting later today into the overnight hours. Farther north has the better chances of more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity this week as many of the models set up the "ring of fire" around the ridge from the central Great Lakes through roughly the I-90 corridor. Looking at ensemble max QPF amounts, there are a few models that have stripes of several inches of precipitation through the week but the location of these stripes vary so it is just something to watch for now. Chances of precipitation lower the farther south you go with NEPA likely only seeing some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms whenever a front associated with the 500 mb shortwaves can pass through.

As far as severe chances go, Tuesday has the greatest potential with the highest probabilities of MLCAPE > 500 J/kg and shear > 30 knots. Its also the day with the steepest mid level lapse rates in the soundings so could be some organized convection with thunderstorms triggered by the passing shortwave. The rest of the week does not have as high of CAPE probabilities but the shear is there for much of the week with the frequency strong low and mid level flow associated with the passing shortwaves.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northwest winds will become light and variable overnight as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure holds through the first part of tomorrow, then a warm front approaches the area. Warm front will bring rain showers tomorrow afternoon, but not expecting any restrictions yet. Winds shift south tomorrow with increasing gusts.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR, wind gusts near 20 knots from the south.

Sunday night through Monday night... Possible restrictions from showers.

Tuesday through Thursday: Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.