textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major chances to the forecast package. Widespread rainfall will continue through the afternoon hours, wrapping up by the evening hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A system will continue bringing widespread rainfall across the area, wrapping up completely by the evening hours. Most areas will see between an half inch and an inch, with isolated areas a little above an inch. An isolated storm or two is possible for Northeast Pennsylvania this evening.

2) Dry, northerly flow tomorrow and Wednesday will bring mostly sunny skies and a chance for overnight fog in deeper valleys. The pattern turns more unsettled and warmer for the end of the week into the weekend as flow becomes more west to southwest with moisture returning to the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure is currently tracking over PA, bringing rounds of widespread rainfall across the area. So far, around a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain has fallen in most areas, and an additional quarter to a half inch of rain can be expected through the mid-afternoon into the evening hours. We're already starting to see the back edge of reflectivity on radar on the very western edges of the area, and this clearing edge will move west-to-east through the afternoon.

In NE PA, there's a bubble of instability over the area this evening, and tied in with some moderate 0-6 km shear values, an isolated storm or two is possible this evening. If the warm front associated with this system doesn't fully lift through NE PA, this could help mitigate any storm from becoming strong to severe. If it does fully lift, instability would increase, as well as the severe storm threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once the low is through the region tonight, north to northwest flow behind the low brings in dry air and high pressure tomorrow and Wednesday. Day time will see mostly sunny skies with dry air mixing its way to the surface lowering humidity through peak heating. At night, after all the rain, greater evaporation in the afternoon and evening will help increase the low level moisture enough for some valley fog development.

For Thursday into next weekend, the flow aloft becomes more zonal with a westerly to southwesterly flow. While timing of shortwaves are all over the place this far out, there is high confidence that there will be multiple waves late week and into the weekend to move through that could trigger showers and storms. The Bermuda high also is meandering back west, towards Bermuda, which will help with advecting in warmer air aloft as well as open up the region to better moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. There is looking to be at least some strong to severe storm risk as well, with the 500 mb wind speeds remaining between 35 and 60 knots Thursday into Saturday so that will supply some shear with the shortwave passages.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A frontal system is producing widespread rain across the region through the evening hours. MVFR to IFR restrictions will be possible under heavier rain showers. Widespread rainfall comes to an end later this afternoon possibly lifting ceilings and visibility for a few hours. However, IFR restrictions should return by late this evening as the center of the low moves through the area, switching the wind direction to more NWerly. These ceilings should stick around through the overnight hours.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.