textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slight adjustments in chance of precipitation for lake effect rain showers tonight into tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and wetter weather pattern this weekend into early next week.

2) Watching the potential for a stronger low or noreaster to potentially form late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough is moving off to the east today with a shortwave dropping in out of the north tonight into tomorrow. With colder air moving in at 850 mb and warm lakes, lake effect rain showers develop. The best chance for heavier rain showers is in CNY but there will be enough moisture and forcing that much of the region will at least see a few sprinkles with the shortwave passage tomorrow. Temperatures will be briefly cooler tomorrow before warming up Tuesday as warm air advection develops ahead of a deepening trough in the central US that will bring us more unsettled weather later this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The potential for a Miller B noreaster is increasing as models are coming into better agreement with the northern and southern 500 mb shortwaves phasing somewhere in the Ohio or Mississippi river valleys. While the confidence in a stronger surface low has increased, the track is still uncertain with a large spread of surface low locations Friday afternoon, ranging from western NY all the way too well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Most ensemble members at this point do have at least some precipitation moving through our area with an ensemble mean near a half inch of QPF, with the 90th percentile around an inch to inch and a half. The caveat is that the cold airmass being ingested into the storm from the north is slowly warming with each progressing model suits. This is not too surprising as there is not much snow cover yet to the north so models are likely overdoing the available cold air. While the confidence in a stronger surface low has increased with a good soaking forecasted, the odds of a widespread heavier snow event has decreased. There will still be enough cold air on the backside of the low so Friday night into Saturday may see a transition to some wet, slushy snow. Accumulations likely will be light and with a warm ground and air temps just around freezing, snow may melt as fast as it is falling and limited to elevations above 1000 feet.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon and into this evening at all terminals before showers and lower ceilings return from north to south starting around 05-06Z. This will lead to MVFR/Fuel-alt restrictions at the NY terminals for much of the time through 18Z. AVP is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period, but some lower ceilings may try to approach during the mid-to-late morning hours tomorrow.

There can be quick-moving warm advection band of showers and lower clouds this evening that clip RME and SYR prior to this between 22Z and 02Z. Showers overnight and into tomorrow morning may be heavy enough for some brief IFR visby restrictions, but confidence wasn't high enough to include at this time. A west- northwest breeze will continue into this evening with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. Winds turn more northwesterly toward the end of the TAF period and remain gusty.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon...Isolated showers and lingering ceiling restrictions possible, mainly around RME and SYR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.