textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another round of showers and storms will move through today. There is potential for a few storms to have gusty winds and heavy rain.

2) After a quiet end to the weekend, the pattern becomes active with off-and-on showers and cooling temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Lingering showers and storms will continue to move through the region early this morning. As they exit the region, a shortwave approaches the region. This shortwave will support another round of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly this afternoon and evening. Models are showing anywhere from 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon, though shear will be weak ranging from 20 to 30 kts. Mid- level lapse rates will generally be low across the region though there will be some pockets of modest values. While these values are not too impressive, there will likely be enough of these ingredients to support a few stronger storms today. The greatest hazard would be strong winds, given the higher DCAPE values seen in forecast soundings and slightly stronger flow above the surface that could mix down. Instability extends into the hail growth zone as well, so small hail may be possible. As of now, the greatest potential for strong to severe storms is over the Wyoming Valley and areas south of the region. If some clearing can take place, then areas further north could also see isolated stronger storms.

Looking at moisture for today, PWATs will be 1.5 to 1.75 inches. While not particularly high, there is potential for quasi-stationary storm motions. Given this, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and could lead to localized flash flooding. Areas that were hit hardest yesterday would be more sensitive to higher rainfall amounts.

When it is not raining, it will be warm and humid. Temperatures will max out in the 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat index values will be around or exceed 90 in the valleys, but stay below heat advisory criteria.

Overnight, a weak cold front will begin to pass through. This may support a few additional rain showers, but these will be lighter. With the added moisture and winds calming, fog will develop, especially in the valleys. Temperatures stay fairly mild, only dropping into the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

While there will not be much of a cool down on tomorrow, drier air moves in and significantly decreases the humidity. Surface high pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend. Monday will also start out dry but rain is quick to move in with the next disturbance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and evening. There will be enhanced mid-level flow, which equates to higher shear. The low level flow will also be stronger than seen this weekend. There is still some uncertainty on how much instability will develop. PWATs will be enhanced with values of at least 1.75 inches. While there are still uncertainties if all ingredients come together, Monday will be the next day to monitor for the potential for strong storms and heavy rainfall.

The general pattern will keep a broad trough over the region the rest of the week. Multiple shortwaves will move through during this time and support off-and-on scattered showers Tuesday through Thursday. During this stretch, moisture may become limited on Wednesday, so there will be potential for a brief dry period for most, if not all of the region. One more system looks to push through near the end of the week before high pressure returns just before the weekend.

After a warm start, temperatures will trend cooler throughout the week and be closer to or even slightly below normal.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Fog will continue for the first hour or so of the 12z TAF period. Afterwards, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again Saturday afternoon. There is less confidence with timing of storms today, but the mention of rain showers was included.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Wednesday...A few lingering showers/storms for Saturday night with brief restrictions possible. Mainly dry Sunday through Monday morning, with VFR conditions expected. Monday afternoon through Wednesday, unsettled with repeating times of showers and scattered thunderstorms and associated restrictions. Overnight fog/mist restrictions are also possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.