textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances for severe storms and flash flooding this afternoon. Adjusted precipitation chances to reflect this.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms expected today and Saturday. A few severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening with gusty winds and heavy rain as the main threats. Isolated flash flooding from these storms will be possible. Heat and humidity remain across the region.

2) After quiet weather on Sunday, an active pattern returns for next week with a gradual cooling trend expected as the week progresses.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Heat and humidity will continue to build as the day progresses, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints back in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain and thunderstorms have moved into the area from the west and south and will continue to spread across the region as the afternoon progresses. CAPE has really increased over the past hour, with areas across NEPA into the Southern Tier already seeing values above 2000 j/kg with most of the CIN mixed out. To go along with the increased instability, effective bulk shear of 30kts has spread across the region ahead of the approaching shortwave. This will support loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms with main threats isolated damaging winds and heavy rain causing instances of isolated flash flooding. Best chances for severe weather currently look to be cross the Wyoming Valley into the Catskills where higher CAPE and shear values could produce some better cluster organization. Storms should stick around into the evening hours.

Heavy rain will be accompany some of these storms, allowing for a chance for isolated flash flooding across areas that have been saturated from the recent rains. PWATs remain under 2in but with the early storms and expected rain and storms later this afternoon, flash flooding risks will continue.

On Saturday, another weak shortwave will ripple through the area, kicking off another round of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. The severe threat looks very low as bulk shear is forecast to be weak and CAPE a lower than today. Heavy rain chances will remain, with isolated flash flooding possible across areas saturated by recent rains. A Marginal Risk for flash flooding continues across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

***The forecast for Sunday into next week has not changed much since the last forecast package, thus, the discussion remains unchanged.***

A welcome reprieve from heat and rain is expected on Sunday as weak high pressure builds into the area. Temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected, but the much lower humidity will make it feel quite nice outside.

A weather pattern change starting at the beginning of next week will bring continued shower chances through the week, but temperatures and humidity will be trending lower. The Bermuda high is expected to weaken and slide south over the Bahamas into the Gulf as more zonal flow develops across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This will end the southerly flow pushing the higher humidity into the area and allow for Canadian air to filter into the region, bringing cooler temperatures through the week. A few shortwaves will ripple through the pattern, kicking off scattered showers through mid week. A stronger shortwave with a cold front is progged to move through the area sometime during the end of the week, bringing high pressure, dry conditions and cooler temps for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Still watching some heavier showers within range of the KELM,KITH, KELM and KSYR terminals. However, these look to miss the terminals and weaken by 03Z. Main focus overnight will the formation of MVFR/IFR stratus and fog, perhaps LIFR at KELM. Restrictions should lift just after sunrise. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again Saturday afternoon. Coverage looks lower compared to today with timing still too uncertain for mention in this TAF set.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Wednesday...A few lingering showers/storms for Saturday night with brief restrictions possible. Mainly dry Sunday through Monday morning, with VFR conditions expected. Monday afternoon through Wednesday, unsettled with repeating times of showers and scattered thunderstorms and associated restrictions. Overnight fog/mist restrictions are also possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.