textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Conditions will warm up Thursday before a cold front brings cooler air to the region Friday and this weekend. There will be a chance for frost, especially in the higher elevations, Friday night. Warmer weather then returns next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

A fairly dry cold front will approach the region from the north late tonight and into early Friday morning. While moisture is limited, a few spotty showers will be possible across North- Central NY.

Today's temperatures warm and maintain above average in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight, before the front from the north passes through, mostly clear skies and calm winds will allow for radiational cooling and patchy fog in the valleys and maybe a few hilltops, which will likely develop mainly for the Southern Tier and NE PA as cloud cover increases in the evening hours for areas in Central NY. Any fog that develops will likely dissipate faster than the usual sunrise timing, as winds pick up ahead of the front.

Heading into Friday, conditions will be cooler yet around average for temperatures this time of year. With a much drier and cooler airmass now overhead, Friday night conditions are ideal for strong radiational cooling with clear skies and calm winds. Temperatures could have potential of dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s, with potential for evening colder temperatures falling into the mid 30s, leading to possible patchy frost development for mainly northern Oneida County and the Catskills.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Saturday will be similar in the daytime as Friday; around average high temperatures and dry conditions. However, with the trough shifting eastward, colder overnight temperatures shifted eastward as well. There may be some areas in the higher elevations that could develop frost, but confidence is not too high, and we'll monitor model trends for any changes.

Overhead ridging Sunday will lead to warming temperatures, but the surface high begins pushing east. It continues to look dry through the end of the Short Term period, with the next incoming system, and higher chances for rain, heading into the Long Term period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A trough/low will dig across the Central US and will break the current pattern allowing for a better moisture stream into the region. There is uncertainty though with where this trough will be located and what it means for shower chances. Given this uncertainty, NBM guidance was favored as it has slight to low chance PoPs (<35%) to start the week with the multiple weak disturbances that will move through and around the Northeast.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Fog has struggled to form last night with another sunny day expected so VFR conditions are likely at all terminals through at least 6Z. Tonight there will be more cloud cover so fog development at ELM looks unlikely.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...VFR, except typical valley fog likely each late night/early morning for at least KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.