textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes to the forecast over the next 7 days. Slowed the precipitation changeover going from rain to snow Monday afternoon with temperatures likely staying warmer in the daytime. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Deep low moves into the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday with pockets of freezing rain Sunday night before transitioning to rain region wide Monday.

2) Strong cold front Monday afternoon/evening with strong winds Monday night into Tuesday morning.

3) Long lived lake effect snow event Monday night into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A deepening low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes Sunday night with a warm front lifting into the Northeast. Temperatures aloft will remain above freezing, but temperatures at the surface Sunday night may remain below freezing for the Mohawk Valley and the Catskills. 850 mb temperatures rise overnight Sunday to near 10C, diminishing the threat for freezing rain in those areas, and precipitation type will change back to rain. The warm front is expected to move northward rather slow, and if trends show any more slowing of the front, there could be local water issues with runoff from the rain and snow melt later in the day Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Late Monday into Monday night, a strong cold front moves through with temperatures quickly falling below freezing. With the low deepening and the pressure gradient tightening, strong westerly gusts can be expected for Monday evening into Tuesday. Lake effect snow and some wrap around snow showers on the back side of the departing low could lead to areas of blowing snow despite lighter accumulations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The low matures and becomes stacked just south of the Hudson Bay for most of this upcoming week. Flow around the low, maintained cold air advection, and potential multi-lake connection will lead to persistent lake effect snow from Monday night into at least Saturday. It is too far out to know if the band, or multiple bands, could impact the same areas over and over, as shortwaves wrapping around the occluded low will change the orientation of the low level winds. Lake effect headlines will likely be needed at some point this week for areas along and north of the NYS Thruway corridor.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

An upper level trough of low pressure lingers overhead and areas of mist and low CIGs will likely continue well into this morning and possibly early afternoon. VFR ceilings should return at most sites by late afternoon or early Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday morning...VFR likely

Sunday midday through Sunday night...Freezing rain possible in the afternoon and evening, then rain with restrictions likely in low clouds and fog.

Monday through Tuesday...Cold frontal passage and gusty winds as rain showers change back to lake effect snow showers, especially NY terminals as lake effect becomes dominant. Restrictions possible, especially at the NY terminals.

Wednesday...Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers for mainly the NY terminals, but cannot rule out some showers making it south to KAVP.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.