textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts for Sunday have trended down slightly more than the previous update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers move into the area today and continue into Monday.

2) After a dry Tuesday through Wednesday morning, another round of showers associated with a passing cold front is expected for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers associated with a shortwave trough and weak sfc low tracking across Pennsylvania will start to push into NE PA during the mid- morning hours today. Showers will push further north into the rest of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours as a warm front tracks northeast. Showers will continue through tonight and into Monday as another shortwave trough crosses the region during the evening, followed by a weak cold front that will slowly track across the area on Monday. An influx of moisture increasing PWat values up to around 2.00 inches will provide the potential for heavier showers. The heavier showers with the rain should stay mostly in PA closer to the stronger portion of the two shortwave troughs. Showers are expected to come to an end during the first half of the overnight on Monday night. Forecast guidance continues with the lower rainfall amounts, with amounts of around a tenth to quarter of an inch is expected for NY zones, with amounts increasing to the south toward three quarters of an inch in the southern portions of the forecast area, including from Luzerne County to Pike County. Thunderstorms should be limited through this evening with limited instability.

Winds will increase over the area as the pressure gradient increases over the region. Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range will be possible, especially over the higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front associated with a sfc low near Hudson Bay will cross the region on Wednesday evening. Ahead of the frontal boundary, showers will move into the region late Wednesday morning and afternoon, continuing into the evening on Wednesday. Afternoon instability with daytime heating ahead of the front will allow for some thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday afternoon as well. Uncertainty still exists among guidance for how quickly the front will track through the region, as some guidance still tries to bring a sfc low northeast along the frontal boundary. This scenario will both increase rainfall and duration of showers expected into Thursday. Most guidance is fairly quick with passing front otherwise.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through most of this morning. By the late morning and especially this afternoon, ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR/Fuel Alternate, along with rain showers moving into the area. Thunder is possible as well, but confidence is currently too low to include this in the TAFs. Scattered rain showers continue through the evening with some IFR conditions appearing as well. While most of the rain shower activity begins to move to the east closer to 06Z, lingering IFR ceiling restrictions are expected until the end of the TAF period (at least until 12Z Monday).

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR-VFR. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday night...Scattered showers with associated restrictions possible.

Thursday...Mainly VFR

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.