textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted precipitation chances for this afternoon as it looks like rain should move in a little later than some guidance suggested. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with showers forecast Wednesday night and Friday.

2) High pressure systems will bring cooler temperatures for the weekend and into next week. A quick moving low pressure system could bring showers and storms to the area on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The overall pattern remains mostly the same, with a ridge over the central US and a trough over eastern Canada. This will allow for quick hitting shortwaves and surface highs to push through the area through the rest of the week. The first high will be over the area today, keeping us dry with temperatures near normal for this time of year. The first shortwave will move in during the late afternoon hours from the Great Lakes, bringing scattered rain showers into the overnight hours. With the arrival of this shortwave occurring after peak heating, there isn't much surface instability available, but model soundings are showing some elevated instability so a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially in the evening hours. Behind this shortwave, another surface high will build in from the Great Lakes, keeping conditions dry and temps seasonable on Thursday.

Model guidance differs a bit for Friday with the timing and placement of another stronger shortwave that is forecast to move through the NE US. Precip placement will depend on how far south the ridge will allow the trough axis to dig. This shortwave should develop a surface low that will drag a cold front through the region. Much cooler air is expected to filter in from Canada, with Friday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Saturday looks to be gorgeous as high pressure remains overhead. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. The high will propagate eastward Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressures system barrels through the Great Lakes from the north central US. Scattered rain showers and storms are expected Sunday. If the track of the low is to our north, we will be in the warm sector and could see a ribbon of high instability build into the area from the SW before the low drags a cold front through the area. 0-6km bulk shear from the low and stronger mid to upper level winds from the jet overhead could provide storm organization and, combined with the instability, produce severe storms. Confidence in this is low at the moment given the track of the low is still uncertain and severe weather will be dependent on the low taking a particular track. Either way, we will be monitoring how this system develops.

Behind the low, a strong high pressure system will build in from the west. This will bring NNW flow that will push Canadian air into the region and keep temperatures slightly below normal and keep us dry into mid-week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Areas of fog will linger for the start of the morning before scattering out. Variable flight restrictions are found at AVP & ELM this morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions at all other terminals.

Mainly VFR flight conditions today after any lingering fog dissipates at the terminals. Guidance is starting to agree a bit more for the potential for scattered showers/storms today. Any storm(s) that cross the terminals will have the potential for at least a brief downpour resulting in lower flight cats, especially VSBYs and possibly CIGs at times. Still some uncertainty with timing/placement, so limited TAFs to prob30 for thunderstorms.

Tonight, any showers/storms that cross the terminals should move out of the area by the middle to later portion of the evening. The potential for low stratus or fog will return, especially for terminals where any showers/storms crossed earlier. Reductions to flight cats for both CIGs & VSBY will at least be possible for all terminals to some degree as lingering low level moisture remains over the area.

Outlook:

Thursday...becoming mainly VFR after morning low stratus or areas of fog dissipate.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance for a shower or storm Friday.

Sunday...Increasing chances for showers/storms later in the day and into Sunday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.