textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming over the next couple of days as upper level ridging builds in with a few chances of rain showers and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend.

2) Watching potential for a stalling front late this weekend into early next week that could bring more persistent rainfall which may be heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong ridge of high pressure south of the region keeps zonal flow over the area today with westerly flow. A shortwave tough is moving through this morning kicking off a line of showers over central NY. Once this line moves through there could be another push of morning showers. A weak cold front is expected to move through the region later this afternoon and into this evening with potential to kick off a few more showers. Overall CAMs show isolated showers possible throughout the day, but confidence on where exactly these develop is uncertain. Overall most of today should lean dry with highs warming into the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

A more organized low is expected to track over the region on Thursday bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Initially a warm front will move through in the morning with a cold front following after. If the timing of the frontal passage trends later, there could be a low severe thunderstorm risk with greater than 30 knots of shear in place. Precipitable water values range 1.5-1.75 inches, with a warm could depth of 11-12k feet, so any thunderstorms or showers that do form along the front will have heavy rain. Highs again will warm into the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Surface high pressure builds back into the area by Friday allowing dry conditions to persist through Saturday morning. Northwest flow also settles in with cooler temperatures, highs will range in the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another system approaches the region this weekend as the ridge begins to recede and a low pressure system advances from the Midwest. Much of Saturday should remain dry, though an approaching warm front may bring increasing chances for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport abundant moisture into the region through Sunday. The pattern then becomes increasingly unsettled as the frontal boundary stalls near the northern periphery of the southeast ridge, with a series of waves tracking along it into early next week. The exact placement of this boundary remains uncertain, which will ultimately determine where the heavies precipitation occurs. However model guidance continues to suggest the potential for several rounds of rainfall. Temperatures will remain cool through the weekend into early next week, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are mainly expected through around 03z today. A semi-stationary boundary will bring ceiling restrictions to all NY terminals starting around 03z. Restrictions could get as low as IFR, but confidence is low currently since it's towards the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Scattered showers and associated restrictions develop.

Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions, especially in the afternoon.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered rain showers and associated occasional restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.