textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjustments to ongoing snow showers and squalls coverage and intensity. Some increase on the potential for a coastal low and snow Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Snow showers and squalls continue into tonight followed by weak lake effect in the typically favored areas.

2) Indications trending toward the formation of a low pressure system along a front bringing a round of snow Thursday. Still quite a bit uncertainity 4-5 days out.

3) Another potential snow event this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A band of snow showers and isolated squalls continues to move east through the region this afternoon. Visibilities should drop briefly with light accumulations. Temperatures have warmed above freezing ahead of the band but may fall just below freezing as it moves through. Most valley locations have only gotten wet roads in the past hour or so as a result. Additional snow showers after sunset though may slicken surfaces a bit. A light lake return is still expected tonight into Monday over the typically favored areas near and north of the NY Thruway.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front should move through the region Wednesday. An odd setup with additional mid-level energy coming around the backside of a trough to form a low pressure system along the front. The GFS/GEFS along with the most recent 12Z ECMWF develop an area of antifrontal snow across the region Thursday. Nudged the forecast in this direction. However, several different components have to come together near our region so uncertainity is still high 4-5 days out. If a coastal low can form, windy conditions are possible as well.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another clipper system looks to move through the region this weekend. The GFS/GEFS is most aggressive with this forming a coastal low with another round of snow. However, most modeling is just indicating snow showers at this time given a progressive flow. Temperatures may end up colder than forecasted from the NBM later in the week as modeled 850 mb temperatures are from -10 to -20C. This is particularly true if we get any clear nights with snow cover.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Some heavy snow showers are still making their way through the region. BGM and AVP could see some brief IFR to LIFR with the snow showers, with BGM chances going down after 1Z and AVP after 2Z. Snow showers are quickly weakening to the west so the IFR was reduced at SYR and RME, and the MVFR restrictions ended earlier at ITH and ELM as well.

Tomorrow has another weak front moving through CNY so MVFR cigs and vis is possible again at SYR and RME with lower chances south. Some light snow could accompany the front so its possible there could be IFR at some point in the afternoon at SYR and RME.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Mainly VFR; chance for snow showers at SYR and RME.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR; except a chance for lingering MVFR CIGS at RME and SYR.

Wednesday....Restrictions possible with rain showers, changing to snow overnight.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with snow showers around the area.

Friday....A few lingering snow showers possible (low chance), otherwise VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.