textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chance of rain showers was increased once again for this morning due to a warm front passage. Otherwise, minimal changes were made with the morning forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warm front will bring scattered rain showers to the area this morning, with mainly dry conditions returning this afternoon. Then a cold front will bring widespread rain showers on Friday.

2) A system passing by to the south may bring a few rain showers east of Interstate 81 and south of Interstate 88 on Sunday. Otherwise, high pressure will bring mainly dry and cooler conditions this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front is bringing some scattered light rain showers to the area this morning, most concentrated around the Finger Lakes Region. These showers will lift northward and mostly be north of the region by this afternoon. That being said, a few isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out along and north the NY Thruway Corridor.

Otherwise, today will feature temperatures several degrees above normal for early October standards, with highs mainly in the 70s. Right now the expectation is that most of the day will be mainly cloudy, but partial clearing is possible later this afternoon. If this clearing happens earlier, then temperatures could be higher than currently forecasted and some of the warmer valleys could reach 80 degrees.

A cold front will drop in from the northwest on Friday, which will bring rain showers to the area once again. Instability will be lacking, so thunderstorms are not expected at this time from the front. Temperatures on Friday will vary, depending on location. For most of Central NY north of Interstate 88, the earlier cold front passage will likely keep highs in the 60s. However, farther south (Northeast PA to the Catskills), the later cold front passage will likely result in highs mainly in the 70s, and perhaps near 80 degrees in the Wyoming Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will bring fantastic fall-weather to the area on Saturday with seasonably cool temperatures (highs mainly in the 60s) and plenty of sunshine.

On Sunday, our region will be sandwiched between a low pressure system passing by well to the south and a trough dipping down from Canada. The most likely outcome is mainly dry conditions for the area, but a few rain showers may sneak into Northeast PA-Catskills from the southern system. Otherwise, Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 60s once again.

Much cooler weather looks to move into the region early next week as the influence from a deep longwave trough dipping southward from Canada becomes more apparent. With a surface high pressure system likely in place, the first widespread frost/freeze is possible if skies can remain clear Monday night and especially Tuesday night.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 06Z Friday). However, a warm front will push through the region this morning and bring isolated to scattered rain showers, which could bring brief MVFR restrictions. That being said, confidence in seeing these restrictions is currently too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Weak LLWS is expected to develop across most of the Central NY terminals this evening (mainly after 02Z/03Z).

Outlook...

Friday...Rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.