textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update. Just minor tweaks to the timing and chances of rain on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with the upper level low moving through. Also minor temperatures adjustments were made based on the latest ensemble data through the week; it is trending warmer Saturday, Sunday and especially on Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a cold and frosty start this morning, it will turn sunny and seasonable this afternoon.

2) Another trough of low pressure moves in Wednesday into Thursday, keeping the cooler weather around with widespread showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms over the region.

3) A pattern change heading into the weekend and early next week will allow for much warmer air across the Northeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clear skies and some patchy fog under an area of high pressure have allowed temperatures to plummet into the upper 20s to mid-30s early this morning. Frost and Freeze headlines remain in effect through mid morning. After that, the high pressure center will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny through the day. With the full May sunshine, expect temperatures to warm up nicely into the mid-50s to mid-60s across the area this afternoon. With the deep dry air mass in place humidity values look to fall into the mid-20s to 30 percent range this afternoon. Overall, expect light northwest winds between 5 to 12 mph through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Clouds quickly increase from west to east over the region after sunset this evening, with rain showers arriving overnight. These clouds and showers are associated with a low pressure system tracking across the Central Great Lakes. By Wednesday this low will track just north of Lake Ontario, putting our forecast area under a deep, moist southerly flow. Widespread showers are expected, and with some modest instability (in the warm sector) there will be a slight chance to low end chance for a few thunderstorms as well. Rainfall amounts are no forecast to be too high, and should range from 1/4 to 3/4s of an inch. South winds increase between 10-20 mph through the day, and temperatures remain on the cool side, in the upper 50s to 60s.

Then, the closed mid to upper level low settles directly over the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring some colder air aloft to the region, with numerous showers still expected...and even an isolated thunderstorm still possible. Temperatures will trend colder, with lows well down into the 40s and highs only in the 50s to perhaps low 60s Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts should again be on the light side, under a quarter inch.

The upper level low only slowly drifts east into Southern New England on Friday. This will put our area on the western edge of the moisture, with some upper level ridging starting to build into western areas later in the day. Therefore, while there can still be some isolated to scattered showers around for a portion of the day, eventually it looks to turn partly sunny and milder by afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upcoming weekend will feature a flat ridge to zonal weather pattern over Central NY and Northeast PA. This will keep things mainly dry and partly sunny. However a few fast moving disturbances can still bring a slight chance to low end chance for a few showers or pop up thunderstorms, especially on Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to be much warmer reaching into the 70s and even low 80s for the valleys each day. Overnight lows will be mild in the 40s to mid-50s. The warming trend continues into Monday, with the latest guidance suggesting highs reaching well into the 80s with some modest increase in humidity values. There will be a low chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms as a front lingers well off to our west across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. The Bermuda high should slow this front and increase the warm southwesterly flow into our area.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 12Z Wednesday). Mainly sunny/clear skies are expected until this evening when clouds increase from west to east ahead of the next system. This system will bring an increasing chance for showers towards the end of the TAF period (mainly after 09Z Wednesday), but these are expected to be light and not result in visby restrictions. There is also a possibility MVFR ceilings could sneak into KRME after 10Z.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Thursday night...Scattered showers with associated restrictions likely. Small chance for thunder Wednesday afternoon.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ043-044-047- 048-072. NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-022>025- 036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>018.