textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With an earlier frontal passage, severe thunderstorm potential will advance more quickly east this afternoon, ceasing by evening. While weekend weather appears quiet tonight through midday Sunday, confidence in increasing for another round of thunderstorms later Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will finish moving through the area with some stronger thunderstorms, but lingering threat ends by evening.

2) While pleasant conditions are expected through at least midday Sunday, a round of showers and thunderstorms appears likely to wrap up the weekend Sunday afternoon and evening, followed by cooler weather early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A threat of scattered gusty thunderstorms will hold on just a few more hours, shifting to the Catskills and Poconos in mid to late afternoon before ending.

Timing of the expected cold frontal passage is advancing quickly, which has somewhat limited heating and thus instability. Convergence is a bit loose as well, so while we are having scattered convective cells, they are not organizing into a solid line. That said, some stronger gusts of 40-50 mph could still occur, and perhaps even a severe cell or two during maximum heating in mid-to-late afternoon towards the Catskills- Poconos where highs will still manage upper 80s in the valleys. Convective Available Potential Energy still has a decent chance of reaching 1500-2000 J/Kg in the Poconos-Catskills so that is where stronger cells could yield gustier and marginally severe downbursts. By early evening, activity will shunt south and east of the area, with a cooler air mass advecting in to achieve lows of mid-upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A very dry air mass will result in abundant sunshine Saturday. Highs will still reach a few degrees above climatology, yet the air will feel a lot fresher with dewpoints mixing down to the lower to mid 50s. Ridging will hold into Sunday morning to keep things dry. However, a stout wave is projected to drop into the upper Midwest Sunday morning, quickly pivoting around a Canadian low to swing into our region late Sunday. Modest warming will occur ahead of that wave, and an uptick in moisture. While not exactly humid, the forcing with this wave appears favorable because the air mass behind it will be much cooler for early next week. Thus, confidence is increasing that we will have a round a showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon-evening. With models depicting 2-6km flow of 40-50 knots, there is some potential for storms to be on the strong side. At the same time, the modest moisture and speed of individual cells should limit rainfall amounts, and thus not anticipating excessive rainfall problems.

A markedly cooler air mass will start the week, with mid 60s-mid 70s for highs Monday and just a touch milder Tuesday. Weak waves swinging around the broad cool upper trough could touch off isolated showers by Tuesdsay afternoon, but overall the pattern is mostly dry. Better rain chances wait until midweek onward.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The front is through the region with VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals. With no rain at ELM today, and dew points falling into the upper 50s. the chances of fog is slim. With dry air slowly filtering in out of the NW, even BGM and AVP will likely stay fog free despite the rain that fell over the last couple days.

Outlook:

Saturday through midday Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday...Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions likely Sunday afternoon-evening, followed by lingering low clouds/fog late Sunday night-early Monday morning.

Midday Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, but an isolated shower is possible Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.