textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes made to increase cloud cover this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure for the middle of the week with dry conditions Wednesday.

2) A warm front brings a low chance for showers Thursday morning, followed by a cold front and widepsread showers on Friday. Temperatures turn colder behind the front with frost possible across the north this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure has pushed into the region, but low level moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion has kept extensive cloud cover across the region today. This moist layer will start to scour out this afternoon with some clearing this evening and overnight, however clouds will likely increase again tomorrow morning.

High pressure will center itself over the region tomorrow, with dry conditions. However, upper level clouds will increase and still likely going to see mostly cloudy conditions through the day. Warm air advection on southwesterly flow will push temperatures into the 70s with upper 60s in the Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Warm front will cross the region tomorrow night through Thursday morning. This will bring a few light showers across the area, but nothing substantial. The next chance for rain will come on Friday, when the cold front crosses the region. Scattered showers are expected across the area on Friday, and QPF is currently at a quarter inch or less across most of the region. The front exits the region Friday night with Canadian high pressure pushing in behind it. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Saturday than Thursday and Friday's highs that top out in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows could get into the low to mid 30s Saturday night across northern Oneida County, but there remains some uncertainty with cloud cover, as another system approaches by early Sunday morning.

At this time, there are some timing differences amongst the model guidance on an upper trough/cold front dropping out of Canada Sunday into Monday and low pressure tracking off the Mid Atlantic Coast to our south. A faster and stronger cold front will keep the track of the low to far south to bring substantial moisture into region. This would make shower activity on Sunday fairly light with scattered coverage. For now, the NBM has about 30 to 40 percent shower chances from the Twin Tiers on southward and 20 to 30 percent chances across Central NY. Due to the uncertainty, decided not to stray from the NBM solution at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR cigs have remained stubborn early this afternoon with little clearing so MVFR cigs likely continue. SYR may clear as the clouds are trying to scatter out just to the north. Tonight, the cigs continue to scatter out and with partial clearing, there is a good chance at fog development, mainly for the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. ELM, BGM, and ITH have the best chance at LIFR tonight. RME and AVP have lower confidence so put in some restrictions overnight but did not bring it down to LIFR.

Tomorrow finally has enough dry air behind the departing noreaster so VFR area wide is likely by around 15Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog in the favorable areas, especially at KELM will be possible, which will likely result in restrictions.

Friday through Saturday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Sunday...Low pressure passing near by, potential for restrictions if it passes through the Northeast.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.