textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased snow totals across Oneida and Pike counties have warranted Winter Weather Advisories to be issued.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Broad low pressure system will bring scattered snow showers tonight into Saturday night. Enhanced amounts expected on southern facing higher terrain.

2) Coastal storm will miss us to the east, but arctic air begins to move in Sunday, with cold temps and lake effect snow showers expected into Wednesday.

3) Cold and active weather continues into the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough will begin its push into the central and eastern US this afternoon. An associated clipper system will move into the northern Great Lakes and slowly slide east as the night progresses. As the upper trough continues to dig into the central US tonight, the jet stream will amplify and the left exit region of a jet streak will develop over the area. This dynamic lift combined with the clipper system moving into the area will develop snow showers across the region starting this evening and lasting into Saturday night. With the center of the low to our west and north, southerly winds will be the main wind direction into Saturday evening. This will allow for upslope flow to enhance snowfall amounts into the Tug Hill region and the Poconos/Catskills. Model QPF is showing some higher amounts targeting these areas and with cold air already in place and expected to remain through the day, Advisory level snowfall is expected across Oneida and Pike counties.

In Oneida, upslope into the Tug Hill will allow for 4-6 inches of snow to fall north of I-90, with isolated local amounts of 7-8 inches possible if conditions can line up correctly. Along and south of I-90, 1-3 inches of snow is currently expected. In Pike County, 1-3 inches of snow is expected with the higher amounts across the southern portion of the county. 3+ inches will be possible across the higher, southern facing terrain.

Luzerne, Lackawanna and Sullivan counties have borderline advisory snow amounts but confidence was not high enough to include them in the Advisory. For Lackawanna and Luzerne, thinking is the higher QPF amounts will be east of the area. The higher elevations, especially east of the Wyoming Valley, could reach 3 inches but coverage is too low to include in the Advisory at this time. For Sullivan county, only the high elevations of the Catskills were seeing 4 inches of snow and lower elevations could see a precip shadow as winds downslope off the Poconos, limiting snowfall amounts across the southern and central portions of the county. Latest model runs set up a gradient of higher precip to the east of these areas, and if this should shift to the west in the next model suite, these counties may need to be added to the Advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The same upper trough mentioned above will develop a coastal storm impacting portions of southern and eastern New England on Sunday. The trough will remain positively tilted for too long to get the coastal low going on a track that would bring us snow. We will however start to see arctic air make its way into the region as a cold front pushes through Saturday night. Lake effect snow showers will be possible on Sunday but nothing impactful is expected. Lake effect snow does not really get going until Monday when winds in the low and mid levels line up better. Most of the lake effect will miss us to the north and west, but wobbles in the wind pattern will allow snow to move into CNY Monday and Tuesday. The big impact we will see from this system is very cold air working its way into the area. Highs in the low to mid 20s on Sunday and Monday will crash into the low teens for highs on Tuesday. Monday night and Tuesday night will see lows in the low single digits. Winds will also be a factor that pushes wind chills into the -0s Monday night and Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another clipper system is progged to move into the area Wednesday, bringing synoptic snow showers followed by lake effect snow into the weekend. A "warm up" (highs in the mid 20s to low 30s) may occur Wed/Thurs, but cold air will quickly move back in for the end of the week. This cold air will help drive the lake effect into the weekend. With winds more westerly, we could see more impacts from lake effect and will be monitoring the development of this system.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through about 00Z this evening, when a warm advection band of clouds and light snow lifting northeastward can lead to occasional MVFR restrictions at ITH, SYR and RME.

After about 05Z, snow showers are expected to fill in around RME and SYR with MVFR restrictions. Lower ceilings are possible down into BGM around this time as well. Early tomorrow morning between 10Z-12Z, snow showers and lower ceilings are expected to be more widespread across the area with all terminals expected to see MVFR restrictions through the rest of the TAF period. RME and SYR do have a better chance of seeing some steadier snowfall early-to-mid tomorrow morning and thus have a TEMPO in for IFR or worse visibility.

Winds have eased up and have shifted out of the south- southwest. With the lighter winds at the surface, some borderline SSWerly LLWS is shown on model soundings this evening through 05Z-07Z. Confidence is highest at AVP, BGM and ELM to include at this time.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers.

Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially across Central NY.

Wednesday...An approaching system keeps the chance of snow showers around and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for PAZ048. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-037.