textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change to going forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A generally dry Fall-like pattern will persist for the remainder of Labor Day Weekend.

2) Warming is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of a frontal system projected to pass through with showers and perhaps embedded thunder late Wednesday or early Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cool and dry northerly flow will continue for our region, due to circulation around a stacked low pressure that is slow to progress out of the Canadian Maritime provinces. With the chilly air aloft and small embedded shortwaves pinwheeling around the low, minor instability during diurnal heating actually managed to generate isolated showers Saturday. Further drying of the atmosphere continues to occur, so any isolated showers today will probably be confined towards Catskills-Poconos if any at all. Sun will be mixed with a scattered cumulus field again as diurnal heating occurs today.

Temperatures in this Fall-ish pattern will be just a tad shy of climatology today and Labor Day, with highs of upper 60s-mid 70s and crisp mostly clear nights leading to lows of mid 40s-lower 50s as high pressure drifts over the region. Currently we still have some wind in the boundary layer and scattered clouds, so fog will tend to be very patchy. However, the next two nights will be clearer and with more decoupled to calm winds, promoting better and more typical valley fog formation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Slight upper ridging begins Tuesday to start nudging temperatures up, and then reaching us fully Wednesday with highs of mid 70s-lower 80s as warm air advection occurs ahead of an approaching front. The associated low pressure system forms in the lee of the northern Rockies but moves north of the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the eventual cold front is projected to trail pretty distantly from its parent low in Canada. Models have been trending a bit weaker with this front. Though the pattern suggests a fair amount of flow aloft and thus at least modest shear, ensemble data is now depicting very scant chances (less than 10 percent) of Convective Available Potential Energy of even reaching 400 J/Kg. There is a good chance of rain late Wednesday into Wednesday night, but it may be via forced ascent from a strong jet to the north of the surface front, and thus more of a stable ana-front rainfall. We will continue to monitor but potential for stronger convection seems to be diminishing. There is uncertainty in the models for whether a secondary front late Thursday-early Friday could generate a few showers, but high confidence that high pressure in its wake will probably allow dry cool weather towards the end of the week into early next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

IFR restrictions associated with low clouds streaming off the lakes and patchy fog should clear up by mid morning. VFR conditions expected through the day and evening hours. Continued high pressure over the region will allow for another night of patchy fog. Boundary layer winds should be lighter than this past night which gives better chances for persistent fog at ELM tonight. ITH and BGM may also see fog but confidence in IFR restrictions is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.