textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The potential for severe thunderstorms has increased for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Brief high pressure over the region today with quiet weather, but showers and thunderstorms return Thursday into Friday. Some storms could be severe.

2) High pressure and dry conditions return for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure builds into the region today with seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies.

The next system to impact the area will be on Thursday. Warm southwesterly return flow will increase moisture and temperatures out ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday. A few showers will be possible as a warm front glides through from southwest to northeast on Thursday morning. There should be plenty of time for instability to build up by Thursday afternoon after early morning showers. Latest model soundings are showing decent instability with CAPE of 1500+ J/kg and 30+ knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. Timing of the surface cold front is looking to be late afternoon to early Thursday evening, so the timing should maximize instability during the peak heating of the afternoon. SPC currently has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across a large portion of the CWA.

WPC has also highlighted our area under a marginal risk for flash flooding. Overall the threat for flash flooding is looking low. PWATs are not too out of the ordinary, at only 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal and storms should be progressive.

Showers may linger into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning as the front slowly pushes through and exits the region early Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure builds in behind the exiting cold front on Friday. This should make for an excellent weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday and into the low 80s on Sunday. The next chance for showers will come on Monday as another front sags south out of Canada.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

There is potential for fog at most terminals early this morning. Visibilities would be reduced and the highest confidence for IFR restrictions is at ELM and RME. Other TAF sites, such as BGM, ITH and AVP could see a period of MVFR to brief IFR fog/mist toward daybreak. Conditions may be slow to improve in the morning with all terminals returning to VFR by 13-14z. Expect mainly clear skies, with just some sct high clouds and widespread VFR conditions this afternoon and evening.

Winds will be light and variable, under 6 kts through the taf period.

Outlook...

Late tonight through Thursday morning...Mainly VFR, restrictions possible with morning fog.

Thursday Afternoon through Friday morning...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system bringing showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe, with gusty erratic winds and hail.

Friday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.