textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter weather advisory issued for northern Oneida county. Cold weather advisory issued for portions of CNY and NEPA Tuesday. Potential winter storm this weekend with higher confidence in another round of bitter cold.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some scattered snow showers, perhaps a squall or two this afternoon into evening.

2) High confidence in strong winds and cold temperatures Tuesday with a cold weather advisory issued.

3) Lake effect mainly stays north and west of our forecast area early to mid week. Close call in northern Oneida county. Clipper system dies as it reaches our area Wednesday with another clipper later Thursday.

4) High confidence for another shot of bitter cold this weekend. Potential winter storm as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Any flow off the Great Lakes today looks too southwesterly to get into our area. However, a cold front passing through looks to have enough lift and slight instability to generate some scattered snow showers as it moves through this afternoon into the evening. Some coatings are possible with this activity with a few slick spots. Deeper moisture is lacking for more widespread activity and we don't have the potential for a flash freeze so squalls look isolated at best.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An arctic airmass will charge into the region behind the front. This shifts the lake effect a bit more westerly providing a narrow band to sag the band into northern Oneida county for a few inches of snow. It should be noted, only about 50 miles to the north snow could be measured in feet. So not a large room for error with the snowfall forecast here. Leaned out the usually reliable RGEM. Single digits and teens are likely for temperatures. Coupled with the wind, we look to have wind chills in the -5 to 20F range Tuesday morning. Cold weather headlines have been issued for portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

West-southwest flow should keep most of the lake effect snow north and west of the region. Although, this wind direction off of Lake Erie may send a few snow showers into CNY Tuesday. A weak clipper looks to dry out as it tracks northwest of our region later Wednesday. Moisture looks to be largely absent of areas downslope of steuben county and south of the NY Thruway. Another weak clipper looks to have more in the way of snow showers and possible lake effect Thursday into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

Another shot of bitter cold is likely this weekend and even colder than Tuesday. Below zero lows and highs in the single digits are on the table with some wind as well. Confidence is high for this bitter cold potential.

Confidence is much lower on a potential winter storm tracking across the country this weekend. An interesting dynamic between AI/EXP CMC/UKMET and the more traditional models/ensembles this weekend. The AI modeling sends higher pressure down the plains which increases heights enough for a major winter storm to track closer to the region with widespread snow. Another solution is for the storm to track well south of the region, missing us entirely.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Light snow showers move in this morning between 11Z and 18Z and moves west to east. We included TEMPO groups for all terminals except ELM and AVP, who have the least likely change for snow showers impacting conditions longer than an hour. For RME and SYR, conditions may worsen to IFR, which was included in their TEMPO, but confidence isn't very high.

Late in the afternoon, a cold front moves in and brings a chance of some heavier snow showers or perhaps some snow squalls. TEMPO groups have replaced the earlier PROB30 groups, and there were slight adjustments to timing.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday morning...Lake effect snow showers/associated restrictions may visit SYR-RME at times but otherwise mainly VFR for all terminals. Low confidence for SYR- RME details.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Stronger signal for a low pressure system passing by with restrictions possible from snow showers, especially the NY terminals. Medium confidence.

Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, except intermittent lake effect snow showers possible SYR-RME, low confidence.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ015-022>024.