textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure continues with sunny and seasonable weather expected through Saturday. Morning fog will also be possible.

2) Showers and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Sunday into early next week as the next upper level trough moves into the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure continues to build into the area, with nights starting to get a little longer and some boundary layer moisture in place, valley fog will could develop in the overnight hours, lasting through sunrise, across the Twin Tiers of NY and PA. Daily high temperatures expected to be 80s Friday through Sunday, and in the upper 70s today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The weather pattern will turn more active late in the weekend and into early next week as a broad upper level trough digs into the Northeast US. There are some storm ingredients lining up during the early week, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and over 25 knots of bulk shear, and PWATs around 1-1.5 inches. Overall, it will be a more active period in the early week, but ingredient values are lower than over the past few weeks. Temperatures will remain seasonable through next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Any remaining fog at KELM will dissipate around, or soon after 12Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for most of the next 24 hours (at least through 12Z Friday). Fog is expected once again at KELM late tonight/early Friday morning, which will likely result in IFR visby restrictions again.

Outlook:

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR; morning fog at KELM may result in restrictions.

Sunday into Monday...Scattered afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.