textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowed PoPs across the northern half of the CWA on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frontal system brings showers and thunderstorms to the region to finish out the week.

2) Conditions will trend warmer this weekend and into next week as a ridge builds into the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front will push north towards the region tomorrow morning with increasing clouds and rain showers possible by mid morning west of the I81 corridor. Not expecting much in the way of thunderstorms with this first wave of showers, however, by late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening, there could be some clearing across our western zones. This would create some instability with CAPE of 500 - 1000 J/kg and there will be some decent 0-6 km bulk shear at 40+ knots. Latest CAMs are kicking off storms across western NY and pushing into our western counties by early evening. Still some uncertainty on how much instability will be present, but SPC continues to highlight portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region in a marginal risk for severe storms.

Latest model sounding continue to show some lingering elevated instability after sunset, that should be enough to keep thunderstorms going in the overnight hours, but the severe threat will mainly be before sunset tomorrow.

Depending on how far south the front will push tomorrow night will determine shower activity for Friday. More showers and storms will be possible late in the day on Friday. Latest model guidance keeps the entire area mostly dry on Friday, but eventually the front will push back to the north as a warm front Friday into Saturday, with more showers and thunderstorms possible across NEPA and into the Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Troughing will linger over the NE U.S. into Sunday, but eventually an upper level ridge will builds over the region Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will trend warmer beginning Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s possible. Humidity will also increase by the start of next week, with muggy conditions expected. Weather should remain mostly quiet through Monday, however, we could be on the periphery of the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday with a ring of fire set up. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and any convective activity will bring relief from the heat.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected across the region through most of the TAF period as high pressure will be overhead. Some VFR ceilings at around 4K feet will be possible this afternoon, but with the loss of heating late in the day, these fair weather cumulus clouds will dissipate.

A warm front will be pushing into the region tomorrow morning with rain showers possible towards the end of the forecast period. Most sites should stay near VFR, but some restrictions will be possible in any heavier showers tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through Saturday...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...VFR likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.