textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added more lake effect snow behind the cold front on Thursday, with 1-3 inches of snow possible across central NY.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will bring a potential for minor flooding into Thursday and a low chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm.

2) Temperatures then trend colder into the weekend before a slight warm up Sunday. A couple of systems will bring chances for snow and rain showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong cold front will be pushing across the region tonight. Today, we will within the warm sector of this approaching system and temperatures will once again climb into the 60s and 70s. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes today, pushing a warm front through the region. There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms that develop later this morning and several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push through the region throughout the afternoon.

There will likely be a brief period of dry weather before the low drags a trailing cold front through tonight into early Thursday morning. Along this front, there will be widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms and it is possible an elevated QLCS develops tonight and pushes from west to east across the area late tonight. Models continue to highlight low level stability with a decent surface inversion that should limit the strength of the storms tonight. However, there is 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE from the Twin Tiers on southward and SPC slips clips the southwestern portion of our CWA with a Marginal Risk on the Day 1 Outlook. It will be very tough for the stronger wind aloft to break through the low level inversion and mix to the surface.

The main concern is that the warm conditions and heavy rain showers expected could produce additional flooding issues. The flooding threat will be highest across portions of northern NY that still have over a foot of snowpack. As a result of the snowpack, rainfall, and warmer temperatures a Flood Watch is out for Oneida County.

Once the cold front moves through, much colder air fills in behind it on Thursday. As it exits, there will be a brief changeover to snow showers resulting in light accumulations of less than an inch. Cool, northwesterly flow will support some light lake effect snow showers for the eastern Finger Lakes and over into the Tug Hill Plateau. Some additional accumulation will be possible. Temperatures will plummet throughout the day. In addition, winds will be strong around the low and along the front thanks to tight pressure gradients. As a result, wind chills will be in the teens and 20s on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models have been consistent for the end of the week and into this weekend. Conditions will remain colder than normal. A clipper system moves through the region Friday into Saturday. There is still uncertainty on how this system will track, so precipitation types are also uncertain. However, model guidance continue favor just rain and snow. Then another low pressure system will move through during the latter half of the weekend and early next week. There will be a brief warm up on Sunday before temperatures fall once again early next week behind the departing cold front. This system may bring a mixed back of precipitation types as rain, snow, and wintry mix would all be possible. Behind this front, strong cold air advection is looking more and more likely for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are present to start the 06Z TAF period, with just one exception. Fog developed during the evening at KELM, and visbys have been at airport mins there. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding how long those 1/4sm visbys remain there as there are higher clouds moving in. Most likely, there will be some improvement by 09Z or so, with fog likely lifting by 12Z or so. Otherwise, the next round of restrictions likely hold off until this afternoon when lower clouds move in, along with rain showers. These restrictions are then expected to persist through this evening and tonight. There will be a potential for thunder this afternoon through this evening, but confidence is currently too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

There will also be a couple of brief windows of weak LLWS; first being early this morning at KSYR, then again this evening at most terminals.

Outlook:

Thursday through Thursday evening...Scattered rain showers, mixing in with snow showers. Restrictions possible, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday through Friday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

CLIMATE

Near-record warmth is expected again today (Wednesday 3/11). For reference, below are the record high temperatures at our three climate sites (KSYR, KBGM, and KAVP) for March 11th:

Syracuse, NY: 73 degrees (2021) Binghamton, NY: 68 degrees (1977) Avoca, PA: 74 degrees (2021)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for NYZ009-037.