textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances adjusted for cold front passage tonight and lake effect rain showers over north central NY on Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few light sprinkles will be possible this afternoon but most should stay dry. A cold front moving through the area tonight will bring chances for scattered showers, followed by lake effect rain showers through Monday morning.

2) Cooler weather arrives early this week, with widespread frost possible Monday and Tuesday nights before warmer conditions return for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A pre-frontal trough moving across NY and a low pressure system moving up the east coast are the main weather features impacting the area today. These features are generating some radar returns over the area, but with dry air at the surface, most of the precipitation will not make it to the ground. With varying cloud cover over the area, temperatures will range from the mid 50s to upper 60s across the area, with higher temperatures expected across the northern Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley.

A cold front will push through tonight as a low pressure system slides across Ontario. Scattered showers will be possible across CNY starting after midnight, moving from west to east. Cold air will filter in behind the front, allowing lake effect showers to develop across portions of Onondaga, Madison and S Oneida counties. These showers should linger into the late morning/early afternoon before a surface high moving in from the west ends the precipitation chances. Early morning temps in the mid 40s to low 50s will climb to the mid to upper 50s by the afternoon hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for most of the week. Some of the coldest air of the season will get dragged into the region Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 30s Monday night and Tuesday night. Patchy frost will be possible, especially where winds go calm. The center of the high is now forecast to move overhead a little later, which would keep winds active a little longer and limit frost formation. If the high can move eastward a little quicker, we will have more widespread frost and may even have some sheltered valleys hit freezing. Cool temps stick around during the day on Tuesday, with 50s forecast across much of the area. Tuesday night may be cold again, but the speed of the ridge axis and surface high moving eastward will determine if we are in the low to mid 30s or mid 30s to low 40s. The latest model runs have sped up the ridge and thus the WAA. We will keep an eye on this. Warm air will return for the end of the week, with 60s for highs and 40s for lows expected. A passing weak wave may kick off some scattered rain showers across the northern portion of the CWA on Thursday, but most should stay dry through the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low stratus will cause IFR ceilings at ELM until a cold front pushes through later tonight. After the front pushes through after midnight, winds increase out of the west/northwest and should mix out IFR ceilings over ELM. However, an MVFR cloud deck should push in with the front through the early morning hours before clearing mid to late morning. AVP will have better low level moisture ahead of the front so brief IFR is possible there as the front passes.

VFR at all terminals after 15 or 16Z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, some potential for morning fog at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.