textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for precipitation were added for portions of Central NY on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through Midweek.

2) There is potential for widespread rain chances Thursday into Friday as a frontal system moves through. Temperatures will trend cooler into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Conditions will be warm and mostly dry to kick off the work week thanks to a ridge of high pressure present over the region. First though, temperatures will dip down into the 30s and 40s tonight with areas more west staying a bit more moderate due to increasing cloud cover. After the cool start Monday morning, temperatures will climb into the 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek with warm days and mild nights.

While conditions will be rain-free for most during the first half of the week, showers cannot be ruled out on Tuesday. A surface low pressure system will develop over the Midwest late Monday. Extending from the low will be a warm front that partially lifts through the region. Depending on the placement of the front, some passing showers will be possible during the day on Tuesday, mainly across northern portions of Central NY. With enough moisture, most models are showing some showers though the short range guidance are coming in with wider coverage. Given this, slight chance PoPs were added to areas north of the Southern Tier for now. Model trends will need to be monitored over the next few forecast cycles.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned surface low will push a cold front through the region late in the week. Showers will move in on Thursday and continue into Friday. The front may not fully depart the region as a another low pressure system forms over the Atlantic. As this low moves through, moisture will get advected inland and showers will linger into the Weekend. A dry slot will also move into the region and this could help keep some locations dry while others have a rainy start to the weekend.

Following the frontal system, temperatures will trend cooler into the weekend. Even so, temperatures will generally remain above average for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Monday). Fog is unlikely tonight/early Monday morning due to drier air and clouds moving in from the west.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Scattered showers may bring occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.