textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minimal changes were made to the overnight forecast update. We're continuing to monitor the positioning of the warm front that will arrive on Wednesday, which is further discussed below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A system to bring widespread precipitation to the area Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

2) Additional systems will bring potential for precipitation across the area late in the week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low pressure system over the Midwest will lift a warm frontal boundary through the region early Wednesday morning, bringing widespread precipitation throughout the day and into the overnight hours. The exact positioning of this frontal boundary remains uncertain, but there is a high likelihood that it will bisect somewhere in our forecast area. Since guidance remains uncertain, resulting in our low confidence, minimal changes to the forecast were made. North of this boundary, temperatures will be cold enough for a wintry mix or snow to be the primary form of precipitation, but south of this boundary, precipitation would likely be mainly rain. Headlines may be needed if conditions trend cooler, leading to more widespread potential for ice accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The return of high pressure should result in mainly dry conditions on Thursday with temperatures remaining mild in the high 30s to low 40s. The end of the week is a bit more uncertain as model guidance continues to show another low pressure system over the Midwest that lifts into the Great Lakes on Friday. Additional precipitation on the backside of this system may result in additional scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonably mild through Saturday, but colder air will begin to filter into the region on Sunday and likely persist into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions early this morning will slowly give way to MVFR and even IFR conditions at some terminals later this morning. Rain showers will move through between 7Z and 10Z that will help lower cigs to MVFR at all terminals. With deeper snow cover in CNY and a more humid airmass moving in, SYR and RME have a good chance at some low fog or mist forming resulting in IFR vis. Lower chances of IFR vis exist at BGM and ITH given snow cover there as well but winds may stay elevated enough to prevent any fog or mist from forming. ELM and AVP do not have as deep of snow so they will mainly see MVFR cigs.

Some cigs try to scatter out this afternoon, mainly at ELM but potentially BGM, ITH, and AVP as well. SYR and RME look to remain firmly in the stratus through 6Z tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR restrictions likely and IFR possible for much of the area with rain moving through; especially on Wednesday. Confidence moderate.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, with just a slight chance for a few rain showers around at times. Confidence low to moderate.

Friday...Rain likely with associated restrictions. Could mix with snow north, near RME. Confidence low to moderate.

Saturday...Lingering snow to the north and rain south with associated restrictions. Confidence remains low on restrictions given the uncertainty with precipitation type and intensity.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.