textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will quiet weather through Tuesday with warm temperatures. Hydro concerns decrease, but some areas will need to be monitored due to snow melt.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for more minor flooding Wednesday into Thursday.

3) Conditions turn colder for the end of the week, supporting the return of wintry precipitation.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will keep conditions dry through at least Tuesday. Warm return southwesterly flow will lead to high temperatures climbing into the 60s to near 70 degrees today and upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. Winds will also be slightly breezy today as stronger flow aloft mixes down.

River and stream rises are expected to peak today or tonight due to the snowmelt. However, there remains quite a bit of snowpack in the Tug Hill Region, so additional issue may pop up in the coming days. Also, there is still some snowpack over the Catskills and Upper Delaware Basin that will continue to erode. At this time, there are no additional river points expected to reach flood stage, however, these areas will need to be watched over the next couple of days for any sudden changes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Spotty rain showers will be possible Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north of the region. Shower chances will increase on Wednesday as an associated low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. There is some weak elevated instability forecast just ahead of the cold front on Wednesday evening and this could support some embedded thunderstorms. Due to already high river flows across the region, any additional rainfall Wednesday through Wednesday night may cause additional minor flooding in some areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A cold front pushes through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with strong cold air advection directly behind the front on northwest flow. Lake enhanced snow should develop Thursday, but snowfall amounts at this time look light, with generally 1 to 3 inches across portions of central NY. Temperatures will remain cool for the end of the week and into next weekend. There are several fast moving waves or clipper systems that cold impact the region Friday through Monday.

The track of these systems will determine what precipitation types are observed and how far south precipitation will reach. A more southern track would favor widespread precipitation and mainly snow and thus a more northern track would favor more rain or mixed precipitation.

For now, due to the uncertainty, WPCs forecast for these systems is with NBM guidance.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure holds through the entire TAF period with VFR conditions expected.

LLWS at RME this morning and then LLWS tonight at RME, SYR, ITH and ELM.

Outlook:

Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

Thursday...Becoming cooler with rain showers and associated restrictions possible. Some wet snow can possibly mix in in at the northern terminals as temperatures fall.

Friday...A clipper system can lead to the chance of additional rain/snow showers and potential restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.