textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Considerably increased precipitation chances for this evening and increased wind gusts for this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak disturbance will bring showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm across portions of central New York late this afternoon through this evening.

2) An upper level blocking pattern will be in control for at least the first half of the week. Conditions will be mild and mostly dry.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A fairly potent short wave will be dropping south into northern NY this afternoon and evening. This feature is already kicking off showers and some thunderstorms across southern Quebec early this afternoon. Forecast soundings are showing some weak instability and moisture has increased some with the 12Z model guidance. Decided to increase PoPs from 30 to 40 percent to 50 to 60 percent with this latest update for the late afternoon through evening timeframe. Shower activity will likely be a little more widespread, especially across the Tug Hill and Mohawk Valley and into eastern Otsego and Delaware Counties. Still some uncertainty how far south and west showers will make it this evening, but latest CAMs are trying to bring measurable rain all the way into the Southern Tier. However, much drier air is in place across the southern and western halves of our CWA, so current thinking is very little rain will make it west of the I81 corridor and most of the activity should stay northeast of Binghamton. Finally, with some elevated instability, a mention of isolated thunder was added in the forecast, mostly north of the NYS Thruway Corridor in Oneida County. Forecast soundings also show some potential for strong wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range with any heavier showers, due to inverted V with the low level dry air place.

Key Message 2...

An upper level Omega block will be present over CONUS through at least the first half of this week. An upper trough extends over the Northeast, but with high pressure at the surface, conditions will be mostly dry. Temperatures will be near or even slightly below normal through the middle part of the week as daily highs will be in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Diurnal showers will be possible as daytime heating and weak forcing could trigger pop up showers Monday and Tuesday afternoon. There may also be just enough instability and shear to support isolated thunderstorms as well.

The pattern is expected to change during the second half of the week, at least over the Northeast. While there will still be a low over the west and a weakening ridge in the central US, the trough/low over the east begins to fill as it drifts eastward late in the week. This will lead to a more zonal pattern and ridging starts shifting eastward. A warming trend is forecast into the weekend, with highs in the 80s for most by Thursday. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week as well. A frontal system will approach the region Friday with the next round of showers. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as guidance differ on the timing and coverage.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Monday). However, there are a few exceptions. First, some rain showers may briefly bring MVFR visby and/or ceiling restrictions at KRME and KSYR this evening.

Then late tonight/early Monday morning as skies clear out, patchy fog/mist will be possible at KRME and KELM, which may result in at least MVFR visby restrictions. For both terminals, this is highly dependent on how quickly skies clear. If clouds remain a bit longer, chances are that mainly VFR conditions remain at those two terminals. Any lingering restrictions will dissipate by 12Z, leading to a return to VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.

Gusty northwest winds up to 20kts are expected this afternoon, before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds become more northerly by the mid-morning on Monday at less than 10kts.

Outlook:

Monday through Friday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.