textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind advisory was expanded to include Steuben County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A anomalous storm system is breaking records for low pressure in the month of June as it tracks into southern Ontario, Canada this morning. This system will push a cold front through the region today with showers, thunderstorms and a lot of wind. Greatest chance for widespread showers and storms will be during the morning through early afternoon.

3) High pressure pushes in on Friday with cooler and drier conditions through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A highly anomalous low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes and enter southern Ontario, Canada this morning. Current model progs have the central pressure possibly reaching 988mb or lower by late morning or early this afternoon, which is about 5 standard deviations below normal for this time of year. Latest NAEFS and ENS show return intervals that are outside the climate database with a number of parameters, including sea level pressure and wind speed. Early this morning, showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front from this system will move into the region. Additional showers associated with the cold front will move through later in the morning and continue into the early afternoon. Some of the stronger showers and storms this morning will have the potential to produce damaging winds, as a strong 60+ knot low level jet punches into the area around sunrise. Even without the help of showers and storms, surface winds will pick up later this morning as the cold front approaches and the pressure gradient increases. There remains some uncertainty on how much of the winds aloft will be able to mix down, but confidence was high enough to include one more county (Steuben) to the wind advisory, as winds shouldn't have a problem gusting to 45+ mph across the higher terrain there.

SPC continues to keep most of the region in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with the far eastern portion under a slight risk, but that may change with an update later this morning. This is a low CAPE and high shear environment that is synoptically driven, so as mentioned already above, any stronger convective showers or thunderstorms that can develop will have a chance at producing winds in excess of 55 mph.

As drier air filters into the region later this afternoon, showers should gradually come to an end, but expect gusty winds to continue into this evening. High pressure will build in tonight into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

No major changes in the forecast for the end of the week and this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front for Friday. This will bring drier and cooler conditions through the weekend with low humidity. However, there will remain some upper troughing over the region, so can't rule out some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity around the peak heating hours of the afternoon. The next chance for widespread rain will come towards the beginning of next week. However, there remains to be a lot of run to run model inconsistency with this systems track and timing at this time. It is possible this system could miss most of our region completely depending on how the pattern unfolds in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

LLWS has been kept at all terminals this morning as a low level jet moves through. Heating today will mix those winds down so by roughly 14Z to 15Z, the gusts will be mixing down.

Storms are already firing along the approaching cold front later today so a thunder tempo was added to most sites. SYR, ITH and RME have the best chance at seeing storms given that the northern section of the line is unbroken currently. An IFR tempo has been added for those sites. The farther south along the front, the line is more broken so ELM and BGM were not taken down to IFR as there is a chance the cells will miss the terminal. AVP has the lowest chance of being impacted by a thunderstorm so no TS was added but it may need to be amended if storms develop farther south along the front.

Once the front is through, it will be very windy but likely VFR at all terminals with a dry slot working its way in. Some MVFR cigs are possible after sunset this evening at SYR, ITH, and RME if some low stratus can form off of the Great Lakes but any clouds will scatter out shortly after 6Z tonight.

Outlook:

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, though isolated to scattered showers possible each afternoon with associated intermittent restrictions. Westerly wind gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday- Saturday afternoons.

Late Sunday night through Monday...Wave of low pressure with rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018- 022-036-037.