textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cancelled the flood watch, as any deep moist convection will remain well off to our southeast. No other changes made at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers expected through Tuesday morning across the region with the heaviest rain falling this afternoon and evening across the Finger Lakes Region. No further flash flooding is expected.

2) Low pressure exits out into the Atlantic Tuesday morning. This will bring partly sunny conditions, with chances for a few pop up showers or isolated t'storm Tuesday across the Twin Tiers and into the southern Catskills, then dry and seasonable weather on Wednesday.

3) The next trough and front is progged to slowly move through the area Thursday into Friday. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms along with more warm and humid conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Although we have ample moisture in the region, there is very little instability and this is an important ingredient for deep moist convection to occur. Without the instability, the current thought is that rainfall rates will not be able to get intense enough to exceed flash flood guidance, so it was decided to cancel the flood watch early. We still we see moderate to even heavy showers at times this afternoon through tonight, but the most likely area to see heavier showers today is across the Finger Lakes Region. This area was completely missed by heavy rainfall yesterday, so flash flooding will not be a concern there. Mostly cloudy conditions will continue overnight and temperatures will remain warm with low in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Surface low pressure moves out into the Atlantic by Tuesday morning. However, the upper trough will linger overhead and this will keep clouds and scattered showers around. Due to the clouds and showers, it stays on the cooler side again tomorrow with highs only reaching into the 70s. There could be a few more breaks of afternoon sun up toward the I-90 corridor, Mohawk Valley and Syracuse metro area; this allows for highs in the upper 70s to near 80 here.

By Wednesday, the latest ensemble forecast guidance continues to show dry conditions as weak high pressure builds overhead. Skies are also expected to become partly to mostly sunny and high temperatures warm up into the 80s areawide with moderate humidity levels forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There was very little change in the 12Z model guidance from Thursday onward. Thursday is forecast to be the warmest day of the upcoming week and dry for the first half of the day. The area will be under a zonal flow pattern, however there is potential that a cold front pushes into western NY late in the day, bringing the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Highs on Thursday reach well into the 80s with a few valley locations in the low 90s. With dew points in the mid to upper 60s there will be plenty of atmospheric instability around and depending on the timing of the front, potential for strong thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Most of the guidance is starting to agree on the main frontal passage being sometime on Friday. This will likely bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing of the rain and convection remains uncertain this far out in time. There should be at least some dry time and breaks of sun, as guidance is showing temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Looking ahead to the weekend; overall it is shaping up to be mainly dry and seasonable. NBM ensemble guidance shows the possibility for a few showers or lingering t'storms Saturday, then generally dry on Sunday. Highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s each day with lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

RME and SYR is expected to remain VFR over the next few hours. MVFR CIGs then potentially reach these two TAF sites by mid to late morning, with some scattered showers around, especially at SYR. CIGs are then forecast to come back up to VFR by the mid to late afternoon hours.

A stalled front will keep steadier rain over area terminals this morning before gradually shifting east. The steadiest rainfall will mainly affect the NY southern tier and northeast PA with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon keeping ceiling and visibilities at IFR.

Southeast flow is expected today with gusts around 15-20 knots.

Outlook:

Monday night...Restrictions continue due to rain and fog/mist in the area. IFR likely at BGM and possible at ITH, ELM and AVP. SYR and RME mainly VFR until very late at night.

Tuesday...Lingering rain showers in the morning with MVFR conditions, trending towards VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.