textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Quieter weather for the rest of the day, but storms return Monday as an active pattern ramps back up.

2) High pressure on Tuesday should keep the weather quiet. Active weather returns through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure is in control, and with NW flow across the area, much of the humidity has dissipated. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s across the area with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s will make for a wonderful afternoon and evening. Mostly clear skies tonight will allow lows to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

A Ring of Fire weather pattern looks to set up for much of the week next week, starting on Monday. The Bermuda high will slide to the SW tonight into Monday and merge with the ridge that has set up shop over over the western US for the past few weeks. This will open a corridor of active weather from the western Great Lakes SE into the Mid Atlantic for much of the week. The ridge will provide the hot, humid air needed for convection while shortwaves riding the NE edge of the ridge will provide the shear for storm organization. Several Mesoscale Convective Systems are expected to develop over the northern Plains and follow the ridge into the Mid-Atlantic region. The first one is expected Monday and is currently the only one expected to impact our region through mid-week. This system should crash through the Great Lakes, entering western New York by the mid-morning hours. A morning arrival and clouds ahead of this system will limit the instability available for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. By late morning to early afternoon, MLCAPE values increase to 1000-1500 j/kg and 0-6km shear increases from the teens to 30-35kts as the afternoon progresses. If the MCS can hold together through the morning hours and moves into this more primed area, currently over the Southern Tier into NEPA, we could see strong to damaging winds with isolated tornadoes during the afternoon and evening hours. At this same time, a low pressure system will track to our north across Canada, allowing scattered showers and storms to develop north of the Southern Tier. With severe parameters here lacking, especially the shear, severe storm development chances are much lower. Thats not to say an isolated storm may develop a microburst that could produce damaging winds. To go along with the severe threat, recent rains have left the area saturated. PWATs are expected to be about 1.5in through much of the day, so heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding will be possible.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s north of the Southern Tier with low to mid 80s across the Southern Tier and NEPA.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure is currently progged to fill in behind the MCS and low pressure system moving through the area on Monday. This should lead to quite a lovely day as much of the active weather will be to our south as another MCS is forecast to roll through OH, PA and into the Virginias. Tuesday should see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Active weather returns again mid-week as a trough digs into the area, bringing scattered showers and storms. Guidance is uncertain on the timing and placement of the trough with some having it dig south, pushing cool air into the region to end the week, while others have the ridge to the west winning out and keeping the trough farther north with warmer temperatures. Shower and storm coverage and strength will depend on the timing and location of the trough, so confidence in this remains low given the low confidence in guidance's current handling of the trough. Most of the guidance does point to a ridge building over the area by Saturday, allowing cooler air to filter in by the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 70s for both Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure remains in control with VFR expected through tonight. There is a thin smoke layer aloft in the jetways that we're not accounting for in the TAFs but take note of it's presence. Valley fog is a little tricky to call at KELM with deterministic and probability guidance indicating non development. Middle and high clouds moving in ahead of a minor upper level disturbance should help to hold it at bay and thus have not included in the terminal forecast. Otherwise...ceilings will lower after about 10Z-12Z Monday as the anticipated upper wave/dying MCS moves through Western NY/PA during the morning. For now...restrictions from any showers appears to be a low probability but non-zero. Hinted at worsening conditions in any showers with forecast cigs at FL035-050 between 14Z-18Z.

Outlook:

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Restrictions with overnight fog/low clouds are also possible.

Friday...Returning to VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.