textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Trending cooler this weekend with scattered showers as an upper level low moves into the region.

2) Isolated to scattered showers are expected into next week with additional upper disturbances moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low currently spinning over the Great Lakes will shift east tonight and move overhead tomorrow bringing with it rain showers and cooler conditions. Most guidance shows a dry slot being drawn northward and wrapping up into this system, keeping showers more isolated in coverage for the Twin Tiers on south. Additional scattered showers are expected to continue into Saturday night, especially during the evening, before the upper low shifts east and eventually northeast along the New England Coast. There looks to be a short lull in shower activity Sunday, especially during the midday and afternoon as weak ridging briefly builds in before the next shortwave trough arrives Sunday night into Monday.

A noticeably cooler, more fall-like day will be in store tomorrow with highs from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, then with the weak ridging and more westerly flow on Sunday, high temperatures do recover a bit with highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As mentioned above, the next shortwave trough will be moving into the region Sunday night into Monday with another round of showers. There could be some wet snowflakes that mix in prior to daybreak Monday in the highest elevations of the Catskills and northern Oneida County. There is also a bit of uncertainty in terms of how widespread the shower coverage may be on Monday as the Euro and Canadian deterministic and ensemble guidance are stronger and farther south with this system, while the GFS is farther north and less potent, so that will be something to monitor.

Another break in the wet weather looks to be from late Monday through Tuesday night or Wednesday. Then a cool and potentially unsettled pattern takes hold of the region the rest of the week as an upper trough settles in over the eastern U.S. with scattered rain showers during the day and rain/snow showers at night.

Highs are expected to be in the 50s and 60s Monday through Wednesday before settling back in the 40s late week. Overnight lows look to drop back into the 20s mid-to-late week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR and Fuel Alt levels this evening into tonight as showers move into the region. Model guidance suggests the potential for IFR conditions at RME/ITH/ELM tonight, though confidence remains too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Winds will generally be west to northwest at less than 10 knots. Flight restrictions are expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Monday...Mainly VFR though lingering showers also possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.

Wenesday...Northwest flow behind the cold front may allow showers to linger, with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.