textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Some minor adjustments to shower chances and precipitation amounts for the weekend.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A broad upper level low moving in later Saturday into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Another fairly clear night as high pressure departs. Fog looks to be a bit more confined to the valleys tonight. Our region will be between low pressure systems Saturday. With southeast flow, clouds will start to increase with enough moisture to produce some showers Saturday night. The main cold frontal passage looks to be anywhere from late morning till mid- afternoon. This will limit the overall instability despite modest shear in place for any thunderstorms to be strong to severe. However, enough instability looks to be present for a few thunderstorms to develop in addition to another round of showers during this timeframe. General QPF does not look sufficient either for anything other than localized ponding of water in urban areas and some rises on small streams.
Temperatures look to be fairly typical with lows near 60 and highs near 80 through the weekend then trend cooler early next week. This will be due to northwest flow under a broad upper level trough. West to northwest flow may result in some lake effect showers as well on both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures then rebound for the remainder of the week. Ensemble guidance is keying on Thursday and Friday for the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure in place and dry air mixing in this afternoon means that fog will be limited to ELM tonight. Fog develops later, likely not till after 6Z tonight at ELM with LIFR conditions likely by around 9Z. Fog lifts after 13Z with VFR conditions tomorrow. All other terminals will be VFR for the entire 24 hour period. Some showers try to move in from the west in the afternoon but associated restrictions are not till after 0Z.
Outlook...
Saturday Night into Sunday...Showers and potentially thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.