textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Decreased snow and freezing rain amounts, but ensured to have at least a glaze of ice accumulation where the winter weather advisory is present.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wintry mix will impact portions of Central NY this afternoon and into tonight.

2) Another system to bring wintry mix across the region Friday into Saturday.

3) Keeping on an eye on potential coastal storm, but looking like mostly a miss for our region.

4) The threat of ice jams increases later this week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Tricky forecast for this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures have been running a few degrees warmer, so cut back on snowfall totals for this afternoon and evening. The best chance for any impactful winter weather will likely be tonight into early tomorrow morning with freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Dry slot moves over the region this evening, but there will be ample low level moisture present. Colder air will filter back into the region from the northeast late tonight, bringing temperatures back below freezing for areas east of I81 corridor across central NY. Forecast models sounding show abundant low level moisture, but thermal profiles show the lack of any ice crystals, so if precipitation does occur it will likely be freezing drizzle. Due to the possibility of fzdz, decided to leave Winter Weather Advisories in effect for portions of Central NY through 4am Thursday. There is some potential that freezing drizzle may also occur in the higher elevations of Broome and Sullivan counties in NY and northern Wayne County in PA, but confidence was not high enough to add them to the existing advisory in place. Temperatures will climb above freezing late tomorrow morning and highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models continue to be fairly consistent with the next wintry system for overnight Thursday through Friday morning. This system will be similar to today, as warm air aloft overruns below freezing surface air mass, generally east of I-81. This system will be somewhat messy at the onset with potential for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain, but precipitation will likely be either freezing rain or plain rain by sunrise on Friday. We'll continue to monitor guidance for better confidence in overall icing amounts, but more winter weather advisories may be needed east of the I81 corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The potential coastal low this weekend continues to be wait and see scenario. Models have been horrible with forecasting these systems all winter long until we get to the 48 to 72 hours time window. At this time, potential is low for any significant impacts in our region and another near miss is the most likely scenario. If the storm can get its act together a little further north along the Mid Atlantic Coast, then we could see at least some light snow work its way into NE PA and the southern Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

We also continue to monitor the threat for river ice jams through the rest of this week. With the potential for liquid precipitation, combined with warmer temperatures which will melt the snowpack into the basins, there is an increasing threat for river ice to break up and move down stream. Two to four feet rises on area rivers and streams could dislodge and break up the river ice. If the ice moving downstream were to get caught in certain confluences of the river or near bridges this could cause ice jams that may lead to localized flooding.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions continue for most of the terminals tonight with low clouds, fog and spotty showers or some drizzle through the overnight hours. Some steadier rain/snow and perhaps some sleet is expected around RME and SYR through this evening before tapering off to a bit of drizzle or freezing drizzle overnight with some improvement in ceilings. Despite pessimistic model guidance RME and SYR are seeing VFR conditions this evening, but confidence is low on whether it lasts or if conditions drop to MVFR.

Morning low clouds are expected to linger at ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP with IFR/LIFR ceiling restrictions expected through the rest of the TAF period. RME and SYR should see MVFR restrictions for tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...becoming mainly VFR, with just a slight chance for a few rain showers in the afternoon.

Friday...Rain likely with associated restrictions. Could mix with snow north, near RME. Confidence moderate.

Saturday...Lingering snow to the north and rain south with associated restrictions. Confidence low on restrictions given the uncertainty with precipitation type and intensity.

Sunday...Potential coastal low could impact central NY and NE PA Sunday with restrictions from snow showers. Confidence is low.

Monday...Mainly VFR; low chance of light snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for PAZ038-043-047. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-018- 036-037-044>046-057. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ022-024.