textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some changes to the timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon and night. The main threat is gusty to locally damaging winds.

2) A welcome break Monday and Tuesday with more showers in the forecast by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold frontal boundary will move into the region Sunday afternoon and night. Ahead of the front, enough lift and moisture looks present for the development of showers and thunderstorms. To complicate things there is also a trough modeled over the Mid-Atlantic. This also has the potential to serve a focal point for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Given multiple areas of activity, it may be challenge to get upward of 1,000 J/KG CAPE which would be enough for more of a widespread severe event. Steep low level rates should offset the lack of CAPE some leading to the potential for gusty to locally damaging winds. The overall shear profile looks more favorable compared to Friday. This would result in more distinct organization of thunderstorms into multi-cluster segments. Timing looks to be from mid- afternoon over the Finger Lakes then moving southeastward into NEPA during the evening hours.

High temperatures should nudge into the 80's again before any thunderstorms Sunday after a slightly muggier start around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A much cooler shot of air comes in behind the front on Monday and Tuesday with 70's for highs and 50's for lows. This will be followed by a broad trough of low pressure forming over the Eastern United States later on in the week. Modeling is projecting a very strong surface low by June standards to track through the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. This would bring another round or two of showers. More uncertainity is present if any instability will be present for thunderstorms. A few showers may linger past Thursday with a West- Northwest flow pattern.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through 18Z Sunday, before our next potential round of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon-evening. Despite a clear sky this evening, valley fog is not anticipated at KELM due to dryness of the air, as well as an increasing wind just off the surface. In fact, flow just above the surface will be enough for marginal low level wind shear conditions to be met at KRME for few hours up to dawn; confidence and magnitude are generally too low for the other terminals. After surface winds go light across the terminals tonight, they will pick up from the south-southwest by midday Sunday with occasional gusts into the teens knots range.

Outlook:

Sunday mid afternoon through Sunday night...Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions likely Sunday afternoon-evening, followed by lingering low clouds/fog overnight.

Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple disturbances pass through; associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.