textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions will be warm and dry through the work week with upper level blocking and surface high pressure in place.

2) A frontal system will bring the next chance for rain this weekend, though temperatures will remain mild through the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough will continue to be draped over the eastern US today and part of tomorrow thanks to an Omega blocking pattern. However, surface high pressure will keep conditions dry throughout the entire week week. Today will be mild and slightly warmer than yesterday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. This is just the beginning of a warming trend as the blocking pattern will break down Wednesday into Thursday as the trough drifts east and the ridge that was parked over the Central US builds into the Northeast. Warm, southwest flow will push temperatures into the 80s area-wide for the second half of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for rain will come this weekend as a frontal system approaches the region. This boundary will drop in from the north Saturday and slowly move through the region throughout the weekend. If the system stalls out, then rain will likely continue into early next week as well. The GFS has trended with a stacked low stalling with rain moving in slower but lingering longer. Solutions like the ECMWF have the front moving out by early next week with high pressure building back in early next week. PWATs will vary with this system, ranging from 1.25 to 1.75 inches, which isn't too unusual for this time of year but higher PWATs could lead to periods of heavier rainfall. Models over the last 24 to 36 hours have been consistent with a stripe of 2+ inch QPF somewhere over the Northeast, so there is potential for a good soaking rain after a week of receiving very little. With a variety of solutions between guidance, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on how this system will evolve and how long it sticks around. What does look to be certain is that temperatures will trend slightly cooler under the cloudy, rainy conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at most terminals. Dry air mixing in today will likely prevent fog from developing as there was little to no fog that developed this last night.

Outlook:

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

Saturday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and storms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.