textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures today as rain prevented any solar heating today. Chances of precipitation were raised tomorrow night with more robust lift moving in.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Steady rain today will give way to scattered rain showers tonight through tomorrow, though drying out for Memorial Day.

2) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry as northerly flow develops with average to slightly below average temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front has lifted into NY today and stalled, leading to widespread light to moderate rain. This rain is expected to persist into the early evening, with the front finally beginning to lift north again as another 500 mb shortwave moves into the Great Lakes and helps kick it out. So far rain has been light enough for the ground to absorb what is falling so rivers have been slow to respond. With greenup and recent dry weather, even the rain to come will likely be able to soak in so we are not expecting any river issues, even in smaller streams and tributaries with the rain this afternoon into tomorrow morning.

Chances of rain were increased tomorrow night as a more robust shortwave coupled with being in the right entrance region of a jet max moves through helping trigger the redevelopment of rain showers. Dry air filters in out of the NW behind this shortwave Monday morning with showers tapering off from west to east, with showers out of the region by mid to late morning on Memorial Day. Sunshine also returns Monday with temperatures warming up in time for outdoor activities Memorial Day afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A large Omega block sets up across the US with a trough in the Intermountain West, a large ridge in the central US into Canada, and a trough in New England. This pattern will cut off moisture advection from the gulf into our area so rain chances are low this week. Given the NW flow and heading into summer time, there is a chance of a few isolated storms in the afternoons with the development of instability. Given the lack of low level moisture, chances of precipitation were capped at 20% for now until there is greater confidence. Models have started to hint at a cold pocket of air descending down the edge of the ridge into the Northeast towards the end of the week. This will need to be watched to see if it will remain a potential as it could lead to areas of frost overnight if the 850 mb temps fall back below freezing. Odds are low at this time given how small the pocket of cold air is, and there is still a large ensemble spread in 500 mb heights towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Steady rainfall continues throughout the day with MVFR to IFR ceiling and visibility restrictions.

Rainfall is expected to become more intermittent after 00Z, mainly around BGM, ELM, ITH and SYR, but lower ceilings are expected to fill in in the wake of the steady rain. As a result, a mix of fuel-alt/IFR restrictions is still expected. Another round of steadier rain is expected to fill in around 08Z-09Z from the west reducing visbys once again.

East to southeast winds are expected this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots. LLWS is also possible at AVP this afternoon and at ITH this evening.

Outlook:

Sunday through Monday...Additional scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible, especially during the morning hours both Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

CLIMATE

The lowest high temperature recorded on 5/23 for each of the climate sites.

Avoca/Scranton- 53 in 1963 Forecast: 55 (midnight high) Binghamton- 43 in 1963 Forecast: 54 (midnight high) Syracuse-45 in 1963 Forecast: 57

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.