textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snow has shifted east of the region and remaining Winter Advisories and most Winter Storm Warnings have been canceled. Although light freezing drizzle may occur at higher elevations through this afternoon. Otherwise lake effect accumulations are lighter tonight as temperatures will be warmer than expected. Therefore Winter weather advisories for Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison and S. Oneida county were canceled. A winter weather advisory remains in effect over N. Oneida where an additional 1 to 3 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light lake effect showers develop tonight mainly over north central NY. Potential for gusty winds tonight over the western Mohawk region NY and Pocono Mountain region PA.

2) Potential for light snow showers early Christmas morning, otherwise mostly quiet and seasonable Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

3) Confidence continues to increase in another quick-moving system to produce snow or a wintry mix Friday into Friday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light lake enhanced lake effect develops tonight as northwest flow and colder air settles back into the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will fall -6 to -10 early Wednesday morning. Surface temperatures are quite marginal, so could have a mix of snow and rain before temperatures cool and snow settles in. Due to these warmer temperatures accumulations are expected to be light and sub advisory for most of central NY. Slightly higher accumulations will be over north central NY where a more organized wave moves in. This will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches is possible. As this is temperature dependent, this is subject to change.

Model guidance hints at potential advisory level winds over the Mohawk Valley region and Poconos region late tonight through Wednesday morning. Although confidence was not high enough to issue as winds are borderline, although Pike county could see some down sloping and this may be reconsidered later.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure builds into the region on Christmas Eve with mostly sunny skies expected. Temperatures in the morning will start off in the upper 20s to low 30s and only warm a few degrees during the day. Otherwise highs will be relatively average for this time of year ranging in the low to mid 30s. Northwest winds will be gusty in the morning and will gradually diminish by the evening. Temperatures overnight will fall into the low to mid 20s. Despite high pressure a warm front approaches the region overnight into Christmas morning bringing a slight chance of snow showers or flurries just before sunrise. Not expecting much in terms of accumulation, maybe a dusting.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Low pressure clipper system tracks into the region from the northwest on Friday. Marginal temperatures will make this setup favorable for mixed precipitation. System initially starts as snow as temperatures will be below freezing in the morning, but warmer air starts to creep in from the southwest as the day progresses. This is where we will start to see some mixed precip with the potential for freezing rain especially over northeast PA by Friday afternoon. Model guidance continues to show cold air filtering back in Friday night bringing precipitation back to snow. Model guidance shows only a 60 percent chance of getting snow accumulations greater than 4 inches. This is mainly over the eastern portion of the region where colder air is expected to hold. Areas to the east will only see about a 20% chance of seeing greater than 4 inches at this time with warmer air in place.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The steady snow has ended across the area early this afternoon. Lingering drizzle, mist and patchy freezing drizzle (BGM/AVP) will be possible through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Surface temperatures should rise above freezing for all taf sites, except perhaps BGM heading into the afternoon and evening hours. There will be lingering CIG and VSBY restrictions with the fog/mist/drizzle, with most of our taf sites hovering in the MVFR Fuel Alt to IFR range now through the late evening hours. After about 03-06z tonight a cold front will move through, this will act to mix out the fog/mist and drizzle and lift CIGs up into the MVFR/MVFR Fuel alternate range for the rest of the overnight and into Wednesday morning.

Surface winds will be southerly into this evening, under 10 kts. Then, winds shift to west-northwest and increase substantially overnight, between 8-15 kts with gusts 25-30 kts expected into Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon and night...Becoming VFR for most sites; low chance for lingering MVFR CIGs at some Central NY sites. Low chance for spotty snow showers and/or light freezing rain overnight for a few hours.

Thursday...A low chance of rain and snow showers and associated restrictions.

Friday into Saturday...Wintry precipitation is likely along with associated restrictions at some point this period, but timing is uncertain at this time.

Sunday...Mix of morning freezing rain and rain with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009.