textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A weak system will push through the region today with light snow expected across central New York. The weather pattern will remain active, with several clipper systems bringing chances for light snow over the next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Forecast remains on track through the period. A weak shortwave is moving across the area, kicking off scattered snow showers to our west that are slowly moving into the CWA. Showers are expected to increase this afternoon, especially across areas north of the Southern Tier. A cold front will push through late this afternoon/early evening which will shift winds to the WNW and kick off lake effect snow showers, first moving through the Mohawk Valley area, then sliding into the Finger Lakes region tonight as the winds become more NWerly. Light snow showers are expected to stick around into the early morning hours before high pressure builds in from the west and ends the precip. Snow amounts today and tonight will be light, with 1-2 inches encompassing an area from Cayuga to Cortland to Oneida county. Localized amounts approaching 3 inches will be possible across higher elevations south of the Mohawk Valley if a few lake effect showers train over the same area. A trace to an inch will be possible for the rest of the area north of the Southern Tier.

Behind the cold front, very cold air will drop lows tonight into the single digits north of the Southern Tier and low 10s over and south of the Southern Tier. High pressure building in form the west on Monday will reinforce the cold air advection and keep highs on Monday in the teens for most and low 20s in the valleys of NEPA. Monday night will be the coldest of the week as the center of the surface high sits right over the area. Radiational cooling combined with the already cold airmass will allow temps to fall into the low single digits for most, with -0s across higher elevations east of I-81. Luckily the winds will be mostly calm but they are expected to pick up a little bit before sunrise, which would push windchills to 0 to -9 across the region.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure moves east of the area Tuesday morning as the next set of shortwaves move into the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Winds will become southerly on Tuesday and push warmer air into the region from the south. Strong southerly winds of 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph will push temps into the mid 20s by mid afternoon. A weak shortwave exiting the eastern Great Lakes combined with isentropic lift from the WAA will kick off scattered snow showers across the area in the afternoon and evening. Some lake enhanced showers will stick around north of the Southern Tier into the overnight hours.

A much stronger shortwave will be right on its tail, moving into the area on Wednesday. A surface low will develop over the Great Lakes Tuesday night and the center of the low will track north of our CWA across Ontario on Wednesday. Precip will move in on Wed morning as snow, then change to an elevation based rain/snow mix as temps climb into the mid to upper 30s by the afternoon for most of the area. A change back to all snow will return during the evening as a cold front moves through the area from the NW. Lake effect snow showers will remain during the overnight hours across CNY.

Northern Oneida county is expected to remain cold enough for snow to continue to fall through the day on Wednesday, with lake enhanced showers remaining through the overnight hours. The SW flow that is expected to be dominant through the day will provide upslope lift into the area that will help enhance snowfall chances. Currently, 2-5 inches is forecast to fall over this area through Wed evening, with more possible during the overnight hours. Ensemble guidance is showing a 60-70% chance for greater than 4 inches of snow across far northern Oneida county during this period. We will be monitoring how this develops as a winter headline may be needed for the area during this period. Hindrances to this would be warmer air than currently modeled moving into the region, limiting snowfall chances, or a different track to the low which would alter snow amounts across the region.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Lake effect snow showers should stick around the area Thursday with -12 to -15C 850mb temps flowing over Lake Ontario. The wind field looks to veer with height, which would keep showers more cellular than banded across areas north of the Southern Tier. After Thursday, guidance varies greatly as to how the next shortwave will impact the region. What looked like better chances for impactful snow yesterday now pushes any large low pressure system east of the area as the trough and jet stream do not amplify until they are over the Atlantic. Will have to continue to monitor the development of this system, but snow showers are possible Friday Night into Saturday, whether it be from a low pressure system or a combo of passing shortwave and lake effect snow. No matter how this plays out, arctic air is expected to spill into the area from the NW sometime Sat afternoon or evening.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A front is moving through this evening bringing a narrow band of snow showers to the region. NY terminals will likely see IFR or near IFR vis with the frontal passage due to the snow with a tempo added as the restrictions should be less than an hour. Dry air and warmer temperatures around AVP may help keep restrictions to MVFR at worst so no IFR was included in the TAF. Dry air behind the front should scatter out the clouds by around 6Z at all terminals but SYR and RME where lake effect clouds and snow continue till closer to 12Z. Some uncertainty remains at ITH as winds look favorable for some lake effect snow showers later after 6Z but the fetch across Lake Ontario is low so the snow showers may not materialize. An amendment will be made if it looks like snow is developing as IFR restrictions could occur later than forecast.

VFR conditions expected 12Z onward with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR expected.

Tuesday...VFR in the morning to early afternoon hours. Then, restrictions possible in scattered snow showers late afternoon, evening and overnight.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system approaches the region with snow and rain showers.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions possible with snow showers possible in the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.