textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts have trended slightly higher Sunday into Sunday night. Chances for rain and thunderstorms increased on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and pleasant fall weather expected today, along with mild temperatures.

2) Periods of rain and breezy southeast winds Sunday into Sunday night from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. Dry and warm weather returns in its wake for Monday.

3) The next frontal system looks to bring numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Dry weather returns for the middle of next week, along with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 High level cirrus clouds will continue to stream over the area this morning, gradually becoming a bit thicker and solid by late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, there could be some patchy valley fog around this morning. Light southeast winds are forecast through the day, less than 10 mph. Overall, it will be partly sunny with filter sunshine through the high clouds. It will be seasonably warm with highs in the 60s.

Tonight will feature increasing, thickening and lowering cirrus clouds. It will be cool, especially east and north of Binghamton, with lows in the 40s for most locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2 There still remains some minor uncertainty on the exact timing of the incoming rain Sunday morning. Some of the CAMs guidance is slower by 3-4 hours, and some quicker. Overall, it appears the steady rain will overspread the areas fairly quickly through the morning hours on Sunday...but potentially not reaching Syracuse, Utica, Rome and Cooperstown until Sunday afternoon. Periods of steady rain continue through the day and evening hours, with also a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Otherwise, it will be overcast and cooler with highs in the mid-50s to lower 60s. East-southeast winds will increase, especially over the ridgetops...between 8-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph for the hilltops in NE PA. Total rainfall amounts have nudged back up to between 0.6 to 1.00 inches areawide. Current guidance has the rain quickly tapering off and ending after midnight Sunday night.

Monday is looking dry, with gradually decreasing clouds as an upper level ridge pushes in from the west. Winds shift northwesterly and mild high temperatures should reach well into the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3 A surface low is forecast to track to our north through the day on Tuesday. This will put our CWA in the warm sector, with southwest winds and warm temperatures expected. There will also be some surface based instability as LIs drop to -2 and SBCAPE could reach 200-500 J/Kg...depending on boundary layer destabilization and heating. If current timing hold, the cold front would approach the area late in the day or evening on Tuesday. With the 00z GFS showing 30-40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, we may need to watch for some organizing convection along or ahead of the front. Ensemble guidance is in generally good agreement with this frontal system, and chances for rain are increasing (60-80% over the area). If we do get some breaks of sun, it could be quite warm on Tuesday with highs in the mid-60s to low 70s.

Behind this frontal system the latest guidance keeps it mainly dry and seasonably cool for Wednesday and Thursday next week. The next chance for rain will be Friday, into Saturday as a potentially deep trough approaches the forecast area. This could bring much cooler temperatures for next weekend, stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Dry quiet VFR conditions are anticipated up to 12Z Sunday but a quick deterioration will occur shortly after. For now though, scattered to broken waves of clouds, spreading well north of the remnants of Isaias, will remain well above 12 kft agl. Winds generally become light east or southeast during the day and remain that way into the evening. Some thickening and lowering of ceilings will occur towards dawn Sunday, yet still VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...Rain develops southwest to northeast in morning with restrictive conditions/low ceilings, though probably waiting until early afternoon for KSYR-KRME. Showers continue into Sunday night as low pressure passes through, and a period of low level wind shear is possible.

Monday through Monday night...Generally VFR conditions with weak high pressure passing through.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system approaches the region with showers and even a small chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.