textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some adjustments with shower coverage and wind gusts through early next week. Temperature and precipitation coverage late next week with possible Nor'easter.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Several disturbances in a broad northwest flow pattern bringing mainly rain showers into early next week.

2) Trends toward a Nor'easter late next week and the first potential snowflakes of the season.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low will pass over the region today bringing additional scattered showers to the region. We will also start a cooling trend given the change to a northwesterly wind pattern. Some lake moisture may get pulled into the picture later today into Sunday keeping the possibility for a few showers around. Temperatures should generally be in the 40's and 50's through Monday. A shortwave passing through the area Monday should renew the potential for some showers likely aided by moisture off of the northern most Great Lake. A brief break in the action is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing may be slower than forecasted on Tuesday given typical NBM biases. Winds look to be gusty most days with modeled momentum transfer showing the potential for 20 mph or higher gusts at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Here is where things have been trending more interesting and possibly impactful over the past couple of days. The previous shortwaves should start of the process of sinking the baroclinic gradient further south allowing some colder air to gradually filter south later next week. A fairly potent clipper type system is modeled to dive into the plains and Ohio Valley by Thursday then complete a Miller B type transfer along the coast Friday. Where and how that happens features quite a bit of ensemble spread at this point and a high degree of uncertainity with most weather elements. The NAO looks to trend favorable from a modest negative state to slightly positive which would support the Nor'easter potential. For now, rain chances have increased some Thursday through Friday and temperatures do suggest some wintry potential as well. If the track is to our south, dynamical cooling may allow for a change to a period of slushy snow. Higher elevations would be favored for any mix.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A frontal boundary with a nearby matured system will continue to bring scattered rain showers and restrictions through the day today. Coverage will become more isolated by midday today for most terminals with ceilings also improving. Showers and restrictions continue through the end of the TAF period for SYR and RME and NW flow becomes dominant, resulting in scattered lake effect rain showers.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Monday...Mainly VFR though lingering showers also possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.