textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There were no significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will keep conditions mostly dry through Wednesday as temperatures begin to trend warmer.

2) A broad low pressure will move across the Eastern half of the US late in the week. An associated cold front will bring widespread precipitation chances and falling temperatures into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Other than some scattered lake effect snow showers early this morning, high pressure will be in control and result in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Westerly flow will help scatter out the skies today, leading to a period of sunshine over the region. Temperatures will be warmer as highs will be in the 40s today. After falling into the 20s tonight, temperatures will rebound back into the 40s and low 50s on Wednesday. A few spotty showers may clip the northern portions of the region Wednesday night as a warm front sits over northern NY.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A broad low pressure system will pass through the Northeast late Thursday and drag a cold front through Tuesday night. This system will be the next best chance for widespread precipitation. With temperatures climbing into the 60s, precipitation will initially be rain. Some models are showing a little instability this far out, so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given the later timing of this front, severe weather would not be expected but it is something we will need to monitor throughout the week. As cold air fills in behind the front, rain will briefly transition to snow before ending. Light snowfall accumulations will be possible, especially in the higher terrain areas across Central NY. Winds will pick up as the front approaches and stay breezy after the front has passed.

With a cold airmass in place, temperatures will then trend colder into the start of the weekend. Winds will become gusty during the day Saturday, so it will feel quite blustery as many locations will struggle to get above freezing. A weak disturbance will drop south to support lake enhanced snow showers. High pressure then returns during the second half of the weekend to bring quieter and warmer conditions into the start of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will keep skies mainly clear with VFR conditions expected through the entire 12z TAF period.

Outlook:

Tuesday night...High pressure across the Northeast with mainly VFR conditions.

Wednesday...Cold front begins to move in late from the north with rain showers as well as potential restrictions.

Thursday...Warm front pushes up from the southwest with rain showers and restrictions possible. Rain changes over to snow overnight.

Friday and Saturday...High pressure builds into the region with VFR conditions expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.