textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Frost Advisory was issued for the northern Finger Lakes region for tonight. A Freeze Watch was issued for the Wyoming Valley for Saturday night. Temperatures were lowered below guidance for Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cool and wet pattern will continue through much of the weekend. Cold temperatures and light winds will lead to frost during the mornings.

2) Temperatures will trend warmer early next week though frontal systems will bring chances for more widespread rain, especially Tuesday.

3) Temperatures then fall back below normal for the second half of the work week. The pattern will remain unsettled.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak wave will move through this afternoon and tonight, bringing widespread light rain to the region tonight. Conditions are initially quite dry so it may take a little time before rain begins to reach the ground. Where it has rained upstream, temperatures are stuck in the 40s and even 30s, so temperatures will likely take a dip once the rain beings in the area. Wet snow may mix in over the higher elevations as the rain moves out tonight. Behind the departing rain showers, skies will gradually clear out. With colder air overhead and light winds, frost is expected once again. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the northern Finger Lakes Region. Conditions will be a bit warmer in the Wyoming Valley where skies will be slower to clear, so no hazards were needed for tonight.

With the upper low not moving much by Saturday, there will likely be some pop up showers in the afternoon. NBM guidance wants to keep conditions dry and model soundings would support that with some drier air near the surface. Given that the CAMs and some of the global deterministic guidance show some activity, slight chance PoPs were added to the forecast using a blend of Consall, Conshort, and the previous forecast. If anything can develop, it should be quite light. Overnight, the cold air mass will dig deeper south and with skies clearing, there will likely be good radiational cooling. Due to this, temperatures were lowered using the NBM 25th percentile. As a result, the majority of the region will see temperatures fall below freezing Saturday night. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the Wyoming Valley but was not issued yet for the active NY counties given that there is an advisory already in place for tonight.

Sunday will be precipitation free as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will remain cool as highs will only climb into the 50s, though low 60s may be reached in a few valley locations under sunny skies. A disturbance then clips the region overnight and would bring some light rain to Central NY. With the cold air retreating northward, overnight temperatures will not be as cold as previous nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend warmer early next week with highs in the 60s on Monday and then upper 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday. A low over Canada will drag a cold front across the Midwest Monday. Conditions will be mainly dry on Monday though some pop-up afternoon showers cannot be ruled out ahead of this system. Shower chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as this front approaches the region. Being in the warm sector of this system, afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. This front is expected to stall but exactly where remains uncertain and that will determine how much rain some will see. Those further east have potential to see drier conditions for a bit longer in the day before the front inches across the region. Given the uncertainty, NBM guidance was favored for this forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The aforementioned cold front slowly inches eastward Wednesday into Thursday. A low pressure system eventually develops along this front and finally pulls the front out of the region as the low curves back over northern New England. Wrap around moisture will keep chances for precipitation around through Friday. To add to the unsettled pattern, temperatures will fall back below normal with highs only in the 50s and lows in the 30s/40s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected until the early evening hours. A batch of rain will move into the area after 21Z today, which will bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions to all terminals during the evening. Lingering low level moisture following these showers will result in a further deterioration of ceilings and potentially visbys late this evening/early Saturday morning. IFR restrictions are possible at the Central NY terminals tonight.

Outlook:

Saturday through Monday... Mainly VFR, but restrictions will be possible at times in isolated to scattered showers.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for PAZ044-047. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ015>018.