textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures on Tuesday were increased as warm air advection looks to be a little stronger than previously forecast. Confidence in temperatures well above normal for the week continues to be high. Tuesday and Wednesday show potential for thunderstorms, with Tuesday currently having the better chance at stronger storms developing.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure to the east brings breezy northwest flow and cooler temperatures today. High pressure slides eastward tonight, allowing southwest flow to return and temperatures to warm to slightly above normal. Dry conditions are expected into Sunday afternoon.

2) Very warm temperatures expected through the coming week as we will see pretty consistent SW flow. The weather pattern will also be active, with several disturbances passing through. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure centered to our west will bring breezy NW flow across the area today. Current cumulus streamers off the Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes will continue into the the early afternoon hours. As the high pressure center moves eastward and drier air works its way into the area, these clouds should become more scattered as the afternoon progresses. With the mostly sunny skies developing this afternoon, temperatures will be cooler than what you would expect by looking out the window; only toping out in the upper 40s for much of CNY, and the low to mid 50s in NEPA.

The center of the high will move overhead during the evening hours, clearing out the clouds and bringing very light to calm winds. Radiational cooling combined with the dry air over the region will allow temps to fall into the low 30s to upper 20s, with localized mid 20s across areas prone to cold temps during this type of setup.

The surface high and mid level ridge axis will be east of the area by Sunday morning. This will allow for a return of SW flow and the start of WAA that will last most of the week. Rain showers are expected to develop along the warm front as it pushes through the region on Sunday afternoon, with the best chances for rain across the Finger Lakes into Oneida county. Winds are expected to be somewhat strong Sunday afternoon across the Finger Lakes as a trough over the Great Lakes butts up against the ridge to the east. Gusts up to 30mph will be possible Sunday afternoon, with sustained SW winds in the 10-15mph range. These winds will spread eastward as the evening progresses, with sustained winds in up to 20mph possible and gusts up to 35mph possible across higher elevations. Winds will weaken but remain active overnight into Monday morning. Non-diurnal temps are expected Sunday night into Monday with the expected strong WAA across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Active weather pattern is expected in the coming week with warm temperatures and chances for precipitation every day.

An upper level ridge will build into the southeast US from the Gulf while a mid-level ridge sets up on the east coast. This will create a funnel of warm and moist air that will be advected into our area from the Gulf for much of the week. Normal temps across the area for this time of year are in the upper 50s, and we are expected highs Mon-Fri to be about 15-25 degrees above normal. The warmest day so far this year will be Wednesday, where temps are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the CWA. A few valley locations may reach the mid 80s. Tuesday and Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, while Monday and Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Unfortunately, these warm temperatures come with strings attached as precipitation is forecast every day of the week. We will see multiple shortwaves traverse the area as they are funneled through the Great Lakes thanks to the strong ridge setting up over the SE US. Tuesday and Wednesday currently look to have the best chance for thunderstorms, but ingredients for severe storms are lacking in some areas. 0-6km bulk shear looks ok at around 40kts on Tuesday with mid- level lapse rates just above 7C, but clouds in the morning and early afternoon may limit surface heating enough to allow for some CIN to remain, keeping convection elevated and limiting severe potential. Wednesday looks to have the same 40kts of bulk shear, but mid-level lapse rates and CAPE are forecast to be much lower as rain showers will be possible Wed morning, limiting the instability potential. We will keep an eye on how the mid-week parameters develop.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon should subside by evening, timing may differ an hour or two from TAFS. Winds switch to southerly Sunday with a few 20 knot or so gusts possible after 15Z Sunday.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR, wind gusts near 20 knots from the south.

Sunday night through Monday night... Possible restrictions from showers.

Tuesday through Thursday: Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.