textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted dewpoints for Thursday and Friday; otherwise, no major changes to the forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably warm weather and mainly dry conditions expected today. Increasing moisture and instability bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday.

2) Typical summer weather pattern expected for Sunday into early next week, with a chances for showers or afternoon storms possible every day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As the Bermuda High strengthens and moves a little westward in the Atlantic, this will prep the set-up for the rest of the week's weather pattern. Although mainly dry conditions are expected today, a few weak shortwaves riding along the Bermuda High could push up from the south, bringing chances for showers and weak storms into southern areas of NE PA going into the evening hours. For the daytime, high temperatures in the low to upper 80s can be expected today, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Heading into Thursday, a longwave trough draped over Canada will slowly propagate eastward, allowing for small embedded shortwaves to move into the area over the course of a few days spanning from Thursday into the weekend. With this set-up, the influence from the strengthened Bermuda High will allow for increased moisture to be advected into the area, with PWATs between 1.5 and 2.0 inches through the second half of the week, as well as ample instability, especially for Friday, where MLCAPE values rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range for Thursday. Although ample moisture and instability are forecasted to be readily available on Thursday for storm development, two ingredients may hinder the ability for severe storms to develop. Shear is forecasted in the 20-30 knot range, and this pattern lacks a strong forcing mechanism for the majority of the second half of the week. There is one timeframe that we're monitoring the potential for severe weather, which would be Thursday afternoon into evening. With moisture and instability present, a more robust shortwave moves into the area Thursday afternoon, which could be the forcing necessary to spark off some strong to severe storms. Currently, a Marginal Risk for severe weather is forecasted over our area from the Storm Prediction Center, with the main threat being strong to damaging winds, as this pattern lacks support for the risk of other severe threats.

Going into Friday, a slow-moving, quasi-stationary front approaches, but is expected to weaken quite a bit as it comes into the area. The weekend looks quite showery with chances for afternoon storms as the trough in Canada deepens and propagates eastward a bit more, continuing to push shortwaves into the area. Temperatures and dewpoints increase through the second half of the week, with heat indices increasing into the 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The longwave trough over Canada continues into early next week, providing a semi-zonal flow pattern with some embedded shortwaves that bring chances for scattered showers and afternoon storms for a good portion of early next week. Warm and humid weather is also expected to continue.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Conditions will be VFR for most of the period. Valley fog is expected again late tonight into early Wednesday morning. IFR to LIFR restrictions are expected at ELM due to fog. There is less confidence at RME and BGM, though tempo groups were added for fog and restrictions based on last night's conditions. The short range guidance is showing isolated showers over the region tomorrow but there is not enough confidence to include showers at this time. It was mentioned in the last update that MVFR ceilings may sneak into AVP during the afternoon hours. Most guidance keeps conditions VFR, so opted to lean toward the majority with this update. Winds will generally be calm, especially tonight. Tomorrow, winds will settle out of the south and some gusts will be possible at ITH and BGM.

Outlook:

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Repeat showers and scattered thunderstorms with VFR ceilings consistently at or below FL050 with intermittent worse cig/vsby restrictions associated with rain/storms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.