textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made to the overall forecast at this time. Severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding is still possible for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will track across the area today into tonight. There remains potential for some storms to be severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly an isolated weak tornado. Also, heavy downpours are expected and localized flash flooding will be possible.

2) Mainly dry weather expected Friday through the weekend as high pressure crosses the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Still quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast today. Lingering morning showers as a warm front tracks across the area may limit instability for early this afternoon as a prefrontal trough pushes in from the west. If the warm front can get through the area, then this will allow for some clearing skies within the warm sector and the longer the break between morning showers and afternoon storms will maximize instability. Forecast soundings are still indicating potential for CAPE of 1500+ J/kg, 30 - 35 KT of 0-6km bulk shear and PWATs increasing above 1.5". Also, short Corfidi vectors indicate potential for training thunderstorms and localized flash flooding may become a concern late afternoon into this evening, especially across the southern Catskills.

The main show this afternoon will be with the forcing from the prefrontal trough, as latest CAMs show showers and thunderstorms developing around mid afternoon and moving across the area through early this evening. The cold front will not push through the region until early Friday morning and it likely won't produce much shower or storm activity as it passes. As far as severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening, there will be plenty shear, but the question will be how much instability will develop before storms kick off this afternoon. Also, with little to no CIN in place to hold initiation off until a little later in the afternoon will further hinder stronger instability from developing.

Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but can't rule isolated large hail and an isolated weak tornado. A Slight Risk is still in place from SPC for all but the far western portion of the BGM forecast area, where a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place.

Also, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the entire area from WPC. A Slight Risk is in place across the southeastern portion of the forecast area where training of cells appears more likely as well as slightly higher PWAT values.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure crosses the region Friday into the weekend. This will bring mostly dry and quiet weather. The only caveat to this is the upper trough axis remains overhead on Friday and diurnal heating could produce a few quick passing showers.

Temperatures will cool a few degrees on Friday and Saturday, but warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will return for Sunday. Finally, with recent rainfall and Friday and Saturday nights expected to be clear, cool and calm, the ingredients will be ripe for river valley fog across the region.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning but more scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a front moves through the region. Given the scattered nature of the storms, prob30s were kept for the estimated best timing of thunderstorms rather than tempos. There is a chance that thunderstorms could linger longer at BGM and AVP depending on the speed of the front.

Tonight, conditions are favorable for fog as the skies will clear in the late afternoon or early evening and the moisture from the rain remaining in place. AVP and SYR may avoid the fog but that will depend on rain coverage at SYR, and then how quickly mid level clouds clear at AVP.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday... Restrictions possible as a low pressure system moves north of the region; mainly at SYR and RME.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.