textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes made from the NBM or previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Quiet weather again tomorrow, then a frontal system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday with warmer conditions.

2) Warming trend through the weekend with ridging building in. Upper ridge will center itself over the region early next week, with temperatures turning above average.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Quiet weather is expected again on Wednesday, but it will remain cool with northwest flow overhead. A warm front pushes northward into the region on Thursday morning and may kick off a few showers or storms early in the day. This will also increase moisture and temperatures for Thursday afternoon and evening out ahead of an approaching cold front. Model soundings are showing some decent instability, especially across our western zones, with CAPE just over 1000 J/kg. Also, there should be enough shear in play with ensembles still indicating anywhere between 30 to 45 knots of 0-6 km shear. If the current forecast continues to hold, would not be surprised if a marginal risk for severe storms is eventually introduce by SPC in upcoming forecasts. Severe type is mainly looking like a wind threat, but forecast soundings also show some curvature of the winds in the low levels, so if enough instability can develop with low enough LCLs, there could be a weak tornado risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Flow aloft remains zonal, with weak warm air advection at 850 mb through the weekend, helping to boost afternoon high temperatures. A large upper level ridge could settle over the region by early next week and this would likely send temperatures above average with widespread upper 80s to low 90s possible by Tuesday. Also, moisture will be on the increase, with dew point temperatures possibly climbing into the 60s or even higher, so it will feel much more muggy with the heat. At this time, still way too early to tell if any heat headlines would be needed, as a lot of uncertainty remains with cloud cover, and we could be on the periphery of the high pressure and this would allow for potential afternoon thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR ceilings will hang around for the next few hours before high pressure building into the area will improve conditions to VFR. Clearing skies later could help generate fog and IFR and lower restrictions at a few terminals tonight, but current confidence is too low at this time to include in this TAF package, and will be re-evaluated at for the 00Z TAF package.

Outlook:

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Sunday...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.