textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Rain chances have decreased on Thursday. Temperatures are trending warmer over the weekend and into early next week with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An incoming low pressure system will bring periods of rain this morning, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is the potential for a few isolated strong to severe storms, with small hail and gusty winds.

2) An upper level low will spin directly over the area on Thursday, bringing cool weather and a few showers. The upper level low begins to slowly exit east of the forecast area later on Friday, with conditions drying out.

3) A significant warming trend is expected to develop over the weekend and especially early next week. High temperatures surge into the 80s and perhaps even low 90s for some locations. While the weather is forecast to be mainly dry, there could also be a few afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorms around each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES 1...

A low pressure system is passing by to our north this morning, bringing periods of rain along its warm front. Periods of rain continue, transitioning to scattered or numerous showers later this morning as the cold frontal boundary approaches from the west. A quasi dry slow works in from the west by early to mid afternoon, which will allow for some modest daytime heating and destabilization. It looks like there could be between 300-800 J/kg of MLCAPE for areas along and west of I-81 late this afternoon and early evening. This will depend on if we do indeed see at least some breaks of sun and better heating. If the clouds stay locked in then instability parameters will end up on the lower end. As the final front swings through guidance is showing between 30-45kts of deep layer 0-6km bulk shear over the area. CAMs are showing scattered thunderstorms potentially congealing into a linear mode before sunset, and tracking east over the region. SPC continues to advertise a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms with damaging winds being the main threat; this will be for the west- central portion of the area. Cannot rule out some small hail as well if the storm's updrafts can become strong enough. Model soundings are showing both steep low level and mid level lapse rates, on the order of 7.5C/KM, so this can aid in storm development. DCAPE values will be elevated, up around 700 J/Kg, with soundings showing dry mid level air present. Again, this could lead to isolated gusty to damaging winds being forces to the surface with a few of these thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The 500mb and 700mb vertically stacked low is forecast to spin directly over Central NY and Northeast PA on Thursday. The latest model guidance is beginning to indicate there will be a dry slot over much of the area Thursday morning and early afternoon, leading to mostly cloudy skies and just a stray shower. As the low drifts southeast, eventually wrap around moisture and a better chance for scattered showers will arrive late Thursday into Thursday night. This timeframe will be very cool, with highs in the 50s to maybe low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s.

By Friday the low is already moving away from the area, with only a low chance for lingering showers over the Catskills and Poconos, mainly in the morning. Otherwise, skies will turn partly sunny through the day and temperatures will be milder, in the 60s for highs.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Upper level ridging begins to push into the area over the weekend. The ridge will still be somewhat flat and zonal, so a few fast moving waves will push through. These will bring a slight chance to low end chance for a shower or storm, depending on timing and exact track of the weak low pressure centers. The main story will be the substantial warm up for our area. Temperatures reach well into the 70s to near 80 on Saturday, upper 70s to mid-80s on Sunday. Then, the latest guidance is trending much hotter for Monday and Tuesday, with mid-80s to lower 90s now expected. Current guidance has Tuesday as the hottest day this week and of the season thus far, as 850mb temperatures reach +18C. Dew points rise up to around 60s Monday afternoon, so it won't feel overly humid just yet...by Tuesday dew points reach the mid 60s and we will begin to feel the humidity. It may be time to think about dusting off the AC units, getting them out of storage and ready to use soon. Overnight lows are forecast to be very warm by Monday and Tuesday, in the 60s areawide.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected until this afternoon, although very brief MVFR ceiling and/or visby restrictions cannot be completely ruled out at the Central NY terminals as light rain showers move through. By late this morning/early afternoon more widespread MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected to move in, first at KRME then gradually the rest of the terminals as the afternoon progresses. A little bit more uncertainty for this at KELM and KITH, as it is possible that the MVFR restrictions could be brief before returning to VFR.

There will also be a potential for a line of gusty thunderstorms to move through the region late this afternoon/early this evening, but confidence in seeing thunder at any particular terminal is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Light and variable winds will pick up from the south after 12Z, with occasional gusts of 20-25 kts possible in the afternoon. Winds become light and variable once again this evening.

Outlook:

Thursday through Thursday night...Isolated to scattered showers with occasional restrictions possible.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday or Sunday afternoons.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.