textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the morning forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring rain showers to the area today.

2) A system passing by to the south may bring a few rain showers across parts of Northeast Pennsylvania on Sunday. Otherwise, high pressure will bring mainly dry and cooler conditions this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will drop in from the northwest today, which will bring rain showers to the area. Instability will be lacking, so thunderstorms are not expected at this time from the front. Temperatures today will vary depending on location. For most of Central NY north of Interstate 88, the earlier cold front passage will likely keep highs in the 60s. However, farther south (Northeast PA to the Catskills), the later cold front passage will likely result in highs mainly in the 70s, and perhaps near 80 degrees in the Wyoming Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will bring fantastic fall-weather to the area on Saturday with seasonably cool temperatures (highs mainly in the 60s) and plenty of sunshine.

On Sunday, our region will be sandwiched between a low pressure system passing by well to the south and a trough dipping down from Canada. The most likely outcome is mainly dry conditions for the area, but a few rain showers may sneak into Northeast PA from the southern branch system. Otherwise, Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 60s once again.

Much cooler weather looks to move into the region early next week as the influence from a deep longwave trough dipping southward from Canada becomes more apparent. With a surface high pressure system likely in place, the first widespread frost/freeze is possible if skies can remain clear Monday night and especially Tuesday night. That being said, the growing season has ended for most of the area (except some of the Finger Lakes counties in NY and all of Northeast PA). So any potential Frost Advisories or Freeze Watches/Warnings would only be issued for the remaining active areas.

The high pressure is also expected to bring a prolonged period of dry weather through most of next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected early this morning with potential for ceilings to fall to MVFR as showers start to move into the region from the west. Some marginal LLWS is possible as well, but surface winds pick up by mid morning and LLWS is no longer expected to pose any issues. Highest confidence for LLWS is at ELM, so that is only forecast site where it is included at this time.

By mid to late morning showers spread further across the region with potential for IFR ceilings at central NY terminals. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR towards the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, though valley fog restrictions possible at KELM Saturday night-early Sunday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.