textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

QPF was increased for this evening and tonight, especially across the Twin Tiers. Temperatures were also lowered below guidance for Thursday and Thursday night. The Flood Watch was extended for most of Central NY but was cancelled for those in the northern ares of the Finger Lakes Region and east into the Mohawk Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There will be another round of rain this evening and tonight that could lead to minor hydro issues for areas that recently saw heavy rain.

2) Temperatures trend warmer through the start of the weekend before a cold front moves through Sunday with below normal temperatures to follow. Rain chances remain in the forecast through the weekend before cooler conditions could support light snow early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a quieter start to the day, rain showers will slowly move in this afternoon along the front that is strung across the Northeast. Rain will become more widespread this evening and then again tonight as a warm front will slowly lift through the region. Models are showing 850mb FGEN banding across the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills. This could enhance rainfall over some of the areas recently hit by heavy rain and flash flooding. While expected QPF amounts will be 0.5 to 0.75" over a 12 to 18 hour period, more sensitive areas could still see some minor issues overnight into tomorrow before rain comes to an end. Because of this, the Flood Watch was extended until 8am Thursday for the Southern Tier and the next tier of counties north. For the northern portions of the Finger Lakes Region and the Wyoming Valley, the watch was cancelled early.

Rain showers will become more scattered by Thursday morning and are expected to remain scattered for most of the daytime hours. By Thursday evening, showers become more isolated. Then overnight, mostly dry conditions are expected, though isolated showers and possibly thunderstorms will remain possible.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30s and 40s. With mostly cloudy skies and cold air damming to the east, temperatures will only climb into the 40s and 50s Thursday before falling slightly overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strong southwesterly flow on Friday will kick off a warming trend that will continue into the weekend. We will get a taste of early summer as temperatures surge into the upper 60s and 70s both Friday and Saturday. Unfortunately with disturbances still lingering in the region, there will be chances for off-and-on showers throughout this time as well. There will be enough instability and shear to support isolated afternoon thunderstorms, though severe storms are not expected at this time.

The warmer conditions will be short-lived as a strong cold front will sweep through the region early on Sunday. This will be the next best chance for widespread rain showers. While there will have been a couple of days to dry out, hydro issues may become a concern once again as PWATs will be elevated for this time of year with models showing at least 3 standard deviations above normal. What may help is the relatively quick timing of this front, but this system will be worth monitoring. Colder air is then quick to fill in behind the departing front as freezing to sub-freezing temperatures are forecasted for Sunday night. Wrap-around moisture and northwesterly flow will support light lake effect snow showers as well.

Lake effect snow will likely linger into Monday. Then a passing system will kick off light rain and snow showers on Tuesday. The battle between winter and spring continues as temperatures fall below normal early next week with sub-freezing conditions possible during the overnight periods.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

IFR ceilings are expected at ELM/ITH/BGM this afternoon through the evening with little improvement. RME/SYR/AVP will range from MVFR to Fuel Alt, with brief improvements possible before rain showers move into the region later this evening. Showers will bring IFR visibility to most sites, with LIFR conditions possible overnight. Confidence remains uncertain regarding how pessimistic guidance may be, though model trends keep conditions largely IFR through the end of the period.

Winds will diminish late today and overnight as rain moves in, then increase again tomorrow afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 knots.

Outlook:

Thursday through Saturday...Isolated to scattered rain showers and a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms; associated occasional restrictions possible.

Sunday...A frontal system approaches the region with additional showers and restrictions possible.

Monday...VFR conditions possible as high pressure builds.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ022>025-044>046- 055>057.