textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs were once again bumped up across CNY and NE PA from the NBM for this afternoon with lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers continue today and will be most widespread during the afternoon before tapering off this evening.

2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday before drying back out heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The upper level trough and closed low that have been impacting the area the past few days will finally shift off to our north and east this evening. However, prior to its departure additional lake effect/lake enhanced showers will be around today. Southwesterly flow in place early this morning will lead to shower activity being concentrated near and north of the NYS Thruway. An embedded shortwave aloft will round the base of the departing trough and cross the region from northwest to southeast turning the flow more northwesterly later this morning and into the afternoon. This will allow for isolated to scattered lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers to spread farther south and east once again through CNY and potentially into NE PA. As with the previous forecasts, PoPs were increased from the NBM this afternoon as the NBM tends to be underdone with shower coverage and not extend far enough southeast in this setup.

Temperature-wise, it will be another day with a bit of a fall- like feel in some place with highs in the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Parts of the Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys can make a run into the upper 70s this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure briefly builds in tonight into Wednesday with dry conditions. The next cold front starts to approach from the west Thursday morning and moves through later Thursday into early Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure may form near the Southeast Coast and lift northeast ahead of the front, enhancing the moisture across parts of the area (especially around the Poconos and Catskills). This could result in locally drenching downpours; PWATs look to rise to 1.25-1.50 inches on average. WPC does have NE PA, portions of the Southern Tier and the Catskills outlooked in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall Thursday/Thursday night, which is farther north than 24 hours ago, so this will be a trend to monitor.

In terms of the potential for severe weather during this time, there is on average 30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear late Thursday morning through the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The GFS and NAM both show some areas of 0-3km SRH values of 125-150+ m2/s2 and LCL heights on the NAM are generally under 1000m while the GFS is higher outside of the Catskills and Poconos, with values near or greater than 1500m. Putting this all together, there are ingredients in place that could result in some stronger storms in the afternoon and evening, so this too bears watching.

High pressure looks to build back in with drier conditions for the start of next weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday through Friday with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The Lake Plain and portions of the Finger Lakes do look a bit warmer on Thursday ahead of the front with some places reaching the lower and mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A west-northwest flow has developed, bringing MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs across our NY terminals this morning. IFR will be possible at RME, especially between about 09-14z this morning. A band of lake effect rain showers is expected to impact RME and perhaps SYR toward sunrise and into the mid morning hours. This lake effect rain may reduce visibility down to MVFR levels at times.

There is some uncertainity on timing and how quickly the MVFR ceilings lift out. Guidance has the MVFR ceilings lingering into the early afternoon hours, before scattering and lifting to VFR by 18-21z. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail areawide heading into this evening. AVP is now forecast to see a period of MVFR CIGs between about 13-16z this morning.

Southwesterly winds will become westerly later this morning and then eventually northwesterly by midday. Winds will be between 5 to 10 kts with gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible for most of the during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Late Tonight through Thursday morning...Mainly VFR, restrictions possible with morning fog.

Thursday Afternoon through Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system.

Friday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.