textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes made from the NBM this forecast cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures remain warm through mid week, then a cold front pushes through the region with showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday across the Southern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania. In the wake of the front, cooler temperatures are forecast for the end of the week and into the weekend under dry NW flow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With the rain through the region early this afternoon, clouds have been slowly scattering out as the dry air advecting in aloft mixes into the boundary layer. High pressure builds in tonight at the surface, with radiational cooling helping lead to widespread fog. Some of the CAMs have tried to cool lows into the upper 30s and 40s but given dew points so far this afternoon, that is unrealistic so went with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. The next couple of days will be pristine early summer days with ample sunshine, warm temperatures, and lower humidity as dry air continues to advect in from the north.

Our next chance at precipitation comes Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. Chances of precipitation were kept at slight risk in higher terrain given the dry air in place but with greenup now, there could be some evapotranspiration to add enough boundary layer moisture for more widespread storms but confidence is low for that happening.

Friday into Saturday is still being watched as a high amplitude shortwave with a pocket of cold air dives south out of Canada into our region. Even though this shortwave will have plenty of lift, it wont have much moisture so while rain chances have increased, potential QPF is on the low end, likely less than a quarter inch for most of the region. Still given how small the pocket of cold air is, temperatures have not been decreased a whole lot from last forecast but still lowered a couple degrees from NBM to begin the trend as this feature has been consistent for several days now. Frost and freeze potential is unlikely even in the colder models as a surface low moving in with the shortwave will keep winds elevated and the boundary layer well mixed. With an Omega block setting up for the US, the Northeast will remain under persistent troughiness so cooler weather is more likely than not headed into the beginning of June. Luckily this means highs in the 60s rather than 50s as climatological highs are now approaching the low to mid 70s for June.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Lingering broken MVFR CIGs will scatter and move out of our terminals over the next 1-3 hours (by 21z). VFR conditions are then expected to prevail areawide late this afternoon and evening.

Given the recent rainfall, some areas of low clouds/fog are expected late tonight, with the best chance of restrictions occurring at ELM, ITH, RME and perhaps BGM. Included IFR/LIFR fog in the taf at ELM, RME and a tempo at BGM. Any fog/stratus will lift, scatter and dissipate between about 12-14z Tuesday morning, with a return to widepsread VFR conditions through the rest of the daytime hours.

NW winds 5-15 kts expected this afternoon and early evening, then winds become light and variable under 5 kts overnight. West-southwest winds up around 5 kts expected late Tuesday morning and early afternoon.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.