textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased cloud cover into this evening across the Syracuse metro, Mohawk Valley and Catskills as the latest visible satellite loop shows overcast or mostly cloudy conditions to remain locked in through at least sunset here. Also lowered expected temperatures and high temperatures for this same area as the clouds will not allow much in the way of heating this evening, temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid 60s in this area and it should remain steady through sunset here.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cloudy conditions with a few sprinkles will lingering into the late evening hours across the Mohawk Valley, Syracuse area and Catskills, with mostly sunny conditions elsewhere.

2) Temperatures will trend warmer throughout much of the weak, leading to an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures.

3. After today, the start of the week will be dry though showers return midweek with multiple chances for showers late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low will continue to sweep through the region as it drifts south. This system will support a couple of rounds of light rain over portions of Central NY this afternoon and evening. While cloud cover has been present over these areas, models are showing limited instability, so a rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. From the Southern Tier and south into Northeast PA, there have been more breaks in the cloud cover this morning, resulting in an increase in instability in areas with high 0-6km bulk shear. This then led to pop up showers and storms late this morning and early afternoon. More stable is dropping in, so additional pop up showers in these areas are not expected.

Rain showers are expected to diminish by late this evening. That will be followed by clearing skies and light winds, favorable conditions for fog. Patchy fog will be possible mainly in the valleys, though could creep up some higher elevation locations as well. These conditions typically lead to efficient radiational cooling, so temperatures were bumped down slightly below NBM guidance. Tonight's lows are forecasted to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region early this week with the return of southwesterly flow. This pattern will help kick off a warming trend that is expected throughout the much of the week. High temperatures will be in the 80s across the region, though there would be potential for low 90s in valley locations late this week. Dewpoints early in the week will be in the 50s to low 60s but late in the week, increase to mid to upper 60s. This will make it feel a bit more muggy and uncomfortable. Little relief from the heat is expected overnight as low temperatures will generally be in the 60s after tomorrow night. As was the case with the previous forecast, NBM guidance has been running a bit warm compared to the majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance, so temperatures were bumped down slightly.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The aforementioned high pressure will keep conditions dry early in the week. Surface high pressure slides east and a shortwave trough will move through the region Wednesday with the next round of showers. Models are showing some instability in the afternoon, so thunderstorms may be possible but could be limited due to morning showers. A weak disturbance rides a ridge that builds into the region Thursday, kicking off another round of showers. A frontal system will approach the region Friday with more widespread showers and potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Model guidance seem to be in fairly good agreement with pushing this front out of the region by Saturday and high pressure building in to start the weekend.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

MVFR clouds lingering over RME/SYR/ITH should improve to VFR around 22-00Z, as well as the current wind gusts across all terminals.

Some fog development is possible for ELM and ITH between 08z and 12z, and a TEMPO group has been included. Although it's possible at BGM, confidence was too low to include a TEMPO group for the 18z package and will be re-evaluated at the 00z package.

Outlook:

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.