textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast package. Took out chances for precipitation and storms Tuesday afternoon for northern Central NY as model guidance doesn't reflect this, and confidence is fairly low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Beautiful weather expected for the beginning of the week before an upper level trough brings rounds of showers and storms starting on Wednesday and carrying through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After the passage of yesterday's cold front, temperatures and dew points drop into a much more comfortable feel, with high temperatures in the low to upper 60s, and dew points in the mid to upper 40s. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with the occasional northwesterly breeze up to 10 to 15 mph. Tuesday will be just as beautiful with slightly warmer temperatures in the low to upper 70s, with dew points still comfortably in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Active weather returns as an upper level trough situated in Canada will be the driver of multiple shortwave disturbances that will pass through our area starting Wednesday. Every day from Wednesday and heading into the weekend will have some chances for rain showers and afternoon storms. The day to watch this week will be Thursday, as a more organized low develops and moves across the Great Lakes, providing a stronger forcing mechanism for strong storms to develop. Right now, details are few and things are uncertain as each mid- to long-range model guidance has their own interpretation of timing, strength, and progression, but we'll continue to monitor trends for Thursday.

Temperatures will be in a general slight warming trend from today and through the rest of the week, though expected to be around average or slightly above average during the second half of the week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Post-frontal lowering of ceilings is occurring, which is bringing at MVFR Fuel Alt and IFR CIGs to all terminals. IFR restrictions are most likely at BGM, ITH and RME through 09-12z early this morning. TEMPO IFR CIGs are also expected at AVP and SYR for the next 1-2 hours (07-08z).

Toward daybreak drier air works into the area which should scatter out the CIGs for most locations. RME and SYR hold onto MVFR clouds and CIGs the longest into the early afternoon hours. Elsewhere ITH will be in the edge of the MVFR clouds through the day, with BGM and ELM seeing SCT clouds (020-040 ft agl) at times through the day. AVP will be mainly clear today, with just a few clouds possible at times in the NW flow. All sites are expected to go VFR after 17-19z this afternoon, with CLR skies likely by this evening.

NW winds will become breezy between 10-20 kts by mid morning, continuing through late afternoon. Winds then diminish quickly by evening, becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook:

Late Tonight through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple disturbances pass through; associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.