textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated rain showers were added to the forecast for this afternoon and evening. Tonight's temperatures were lowered below guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level blocking pattern will be in control for most of the week. Conditions will be mild and mostly dry.

2) A change in the pattern midweek will lead to a warming trend through late this week. A frontal system will bring a chance for showers this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With an upper level Omega blocking pattern present over the country, the forecast will be fairly consistent for the next couple of days. While an upper trough will extend over the Northeast, surface high pressure will help conditions mostly dry through at least midweek. A weak shortwave and daytime heating will likely kick off isolated showers this afternoon and evening. With the surface high present, moisture will be limited, so anything that can develop will be light. Given that NBM guidance did not have any PoPs for this time period, a blend of NAMNest, GFS, and manual edits were used to include areas of slight chance PoPs given the isolated coverage expected. Models show weak instability and shear, but not enough to have the confidence to include thunder in the forecast. Patchy fog will also be possible tonight, mainly within the Catskills and river valleys. Guidance continue to favor dry conditions for Tuesday.

Temperatures under this pattern will max out in the 60s and 70s and drop into the 40s and 50s at night. With northerly flow, clear skies, and light winds all expected, temperatures were lowered below NBM guidance for tonight.

Key Message 2...

The Omega block will begin to lose its shape midweek as the ridge in the Central US drifts eastward and the trough over the eastern US fills as it moves out of the region. This will result in a warming trend through the end of the week thanks to warm air advection under west to southwesterly flow. High temperatures will climb into the 80s for most by Thursday. With surface high pressure still an influence, conditions will be mostly dry. There is a frontal system that approaches the region late in the week but it begins to slow down as it does. Some pop up showers ahead of the front will be possible, though the better chance for rain will be when the front finally pushes through. There remains uncertainty as guidance continue to differ on the timing, though there will be potential for rain at some point over the weekend.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected everywhere but ELM where some fog is possible tonight with clear skies and calm winds with better moisture. There will be some showers that develop this afternoon but given how isolated they will be, they were not added to this TAF period. If one of these showers do impact a terminal, brief MVFR conditions are possible.

Outlook:

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.