textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased PoPs for this evening with cold frontal passage and potential snow showers and snow squalls. Also, lake effect snow band tonight has been moved a bit further south with higher snowfall amounts now across northern Onondaga County, but should remain below advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow develops behind a cold front pushing through this evening, targeting northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida County.

2) Widely varying temperatures this weekend with warm conditions Saturday, followed by below average temperatures for Sunday and the start of Meteorological Spring.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s this afternoon across much of the area. However, a cold front will pass this evening and there is potential for a line of snow showers or snow squalls to develop along and immediately ahead of the front. The warm surface temperatures should alleviate potential impacts for any squalls, but higher elevations from the Twin Tiers northward, could see a quick 1 to 2 inches this evening.

Behind the cold front, westerly flow will induce lake effect snow showers off Lake Ontario in the evening that will persist into Thursday across the Mohawk Valley and across northern Onondaga and Madison County after midnight tonight. The CMCReg had a noticeable shift southward in the lake effect band tonight, so decided to increase PoPs across northern Onondaga and Madison County and also increased QPF by blending in the Canadian. This brings about 1 to 3 inches in the Syracuse Metro Area as well, but below advisory criteria. Snowfall totals have come down for northern Oneida due to the shift southward, but due to low to medium confidence in this shift, decided to leave out the winter weather advisory there for now.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

All of our major models continue to advertise a strong high pressure system building into the area on Thursday, keeping a developing low pressure system south of the region. There is still a small chance for a flurry into the Poconos, but for the most part, the trend continues to be that precipitation stays south.

High pressure to the east of us and a trough to the west will funnel warm air into the region for the end of the week. Friday should see temps in the low to mid 40s with Saturday about 5 degrees higher. This is not expected to last long as a strong cold front will dive into the area Sat afternoon/evening. Lows should fall into the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday night, and not recover much during the day Sunday with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 20s. The cold air might not creep all the way down to the Wyoming Valley, so temps there may climb back into the mid 30s. The return of really cold air comes Sunday night with widespread lows in the single digits and N Oneida possibly falling below 0.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR with some lingering MVFR expected early this afternoon at most sites. Convective snow showers are expected to move through this afternoon into the evening a cold front approaches from the west. Best chance for these snow showers and IFR restrictions looks to be at RME and SYR. Snow chances extend into CNY and may impact ELM/ITH/BGM, with moderate confidence for IFR restrictions as these showers will be more scattered. AVP should remain VFR and out of the snow.

Lake effect snow will develop this evening into the overnight for SYR and RME. Currently MVFR conditions are forecast as IFR conditions will be dependent on where the band sets and confidence in this is not high enough to include IFR in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday Night - Thursday morning...Mainly VFR; there can be some scattered lake effect snow showers around SYR/RME. Confidence moderate.

Thursday afternoon and night...Scattered lake effect MVFR clouds may persist, mainly around RME and SYR. Confidence moderate.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Confidence moderate to high.

Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions possible as a couple of waves move through the region with snow showers.

Monday...Restrictions possible as another system approaches the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009.