textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Flood Watch has been issued for Oneida County due to expected rainfall along with significant runoff and snowmelt due to warmer temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy fog tonight with a few showers around before clouds increase.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will bring potential for more minor flooding Wednesday into Thursday and a low chance for an isolated strong thunderstorm.

3) Temperatures then trend colder into the weekend before a slight warm up Sunday. A couple of systems will bring chances for snow and rain showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered showers continue to move northeast associated with a convergent boundary along a stationary front draped across Lake Ontario. Showers should lift north of the region overnight as high clouds build in overhead. Dense fog is present at Elmira with partly to mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. It will be very mild night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s - likely setting record maximum low temperatures across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned front is associated with a low pressure system that will slide across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Thursday. This will put the region in the warm sector of the system and temperatures will once again climb into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday. This front will become pseudo stationary on Wednesday and bring rounds of rain to the region. Cloud cover will be a factor though and could keep temperatures cooler than forecasted and instability to a minimum. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Otherwise, there will be a brief period of dry weather before the low drags a cold front through Wednesday night. Along this front, there will be widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. While models are showing some elevated instability overnight of 1000+ J/kg, there will also be a low level inversion that should limit the strength of any thunderstorms. SPC clips the southwestern portion of our CWA with a Marginal Risk on the Day 1 Outlook. Confidence is low at this time for any severe weather, as the set up looks similar to this past weekend where conditions will be stable through most of the day and the front is late to move through. It will be very tough for the stronger wind aloft to break through the low level inversion and mix to the surface. With the warm conditions and rain showers expected, we will have to monitor for additional flooding issues as portions of northern NY still have over a foot of snowpack. As a result of the snowpack, rainfall, and warmer temperatures a Flood Watch has been issued for Oneida County. Rises in rivers in central NY are expected through Thursday.

Once the cold front moves through, much colder air fills in behind it on Thursday. As it exits, there will be a brief changeover to snow showers resulting in light accumulations of less than an inch. Cool, northwesterly flow will support some light lake effect snow showers for the eastern Finger Lakes and over into the Tug Hill Plateau. Some additional accumulation will be possible. Temperatures will plummet throughout the day. In addition, winds will be strong around the low and along the front thanks to tight pressure gradients. As a result, wind chills will be in the teens and 20s on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Models have been consistent for the longer range forecast to end the week and into this weekend. Conditions will remain colder than normal. A clipper system moves through the region Friday into Saturday. There is still uncertainty on how this system will track, so precipitation types are also uncertain. However, model guidance continue favor just rain and snow. Then another low pressure system will move through during the latter half of the weekend and early next week. There will be a brief warm up on Sunday before temperatures fall once again early next week behind the departing cold front. This system may bring a mixed back of precipitation types as rain, snow, and wintry mix would all be possible. Behind this front, strong cold air advection is looking more and more likely for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A few isolated rain showers have been observed off the lakes with building clouds under westerly flow, however mainly VFR skies expected into the early part of this evening. Confidence is highest in MVFR ceilings arriving earliest at KSYR and KRME just after 03Z. Elsewhere lowering ceilings are still possible, but probably not likely to occur until near 09Z if at all. As a frontal system approaches this evening, scattered to isolated rain showers are possible over the western terminals, but overall coverage will be low.

Low clouds and overcast skies will stick around through the day on Wednesday before another round of precipitation could bring additional restrictions as the front stalls. Afternoon rain showers are likely to begin just before or near 18Z. Thunder is also possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include a mention of it in the current TAF package.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Rain showers becoming likely, especially in the afternoon with associated restrictions. Thunder possible Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Thursday evening...Scattered rain showers, mixing in with snow showers. Restrictions possible, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday through Friday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

CLIMATE

Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday (3/10) and Wednesday (3/11). For reference, below are the record high temperatures at our three climate sites (KSYR, KBGM, and KAVP) for these dates:

March 10th:

Syracuse, NY: 67 degrees (1977) Binghamton, NY: 66 degrees (1977) Avoca, PA: 68 degrees (1955)

March 11th:

Syracuse, NY: 73 degrees (2021) Binghamton, NY: 68 degrees (1977) Avoca, PA: 74 degrees (2021)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for NYZ009-037.