textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made minor adjustments to cloud cover, wind gusts and chances of precipitation today. Added in area of frost tonight, where it clears out and temperatures drop into the low or mid 30s. Widespread frost and some freeze conditions are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning, as temperatures were lowered by a few degrees in this update. Isolated showers were added to the forecast Monday afternoon as the area destabilizes under the upper level trough.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers will be mainly ending early this morning, but breezy west-northwest winds are expected this afternoon. A few isolated showers or perhaps a stray thunderstorm cannot be rule out for portions of Northeast PA or the southern Catskills of New York this afternoon.

2) A cold air mass will combine with surface ridging, diminishing winds and clearing skies to bring the potential for frost tonight into Monday morning. Even colder temperatures are expected under a large high pressure center Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A widespread frost and possible freeze event is expected.

3) A few isolated showers will be possible on Monday as a weak shortwave rotates through the area under a large upper level trough. Otherwise, the weather is looking mainly dry and mostly sunny Monday into Tuesday.

4) Wet, cool and unsettled weather looks to return mid to late week as the next slow moving upper level low and associated surface wave moves through the are Tuesday night through Thursday or Friday. Then drying out and warming up next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak frontal boundary will stall over NE PA this morning and linger through the day. There could be some scattered showers lingering in the early to mid morning hours for portions of Central NY, mainly east of I-81 and down into NE PA. As another weak shortwave approaches it may reignites some isolated showers or a stray thunderstorm this afternoon across NE PA or the southern Catskills. There is very limited moisture, instability, only around 200 J/kg of MLCAPE, with LIs around -1. Overall, skies are forecast to clear and become mostly sunny over most of Central NY this afternoon and evening. With the increasing sunshine, temperatures will moderate, reaching the upper 50s to mid-60s across our CNY zones, with 60s to low 70s expected in NE PA. Breezy west-northwest winds are expected, and wind gusts were increased in the forecast to be more in line with the latest LAV guidance; this gave sustained winds of 7-15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Drier air and weak high pressure slides into the area tonight. Winds should diminish quickly after sunset, decoupling and dropping to under 5 mph overnight. Skies look to remain mainly clear over most of Central NY, with an increase in mid to high level clouds in NE PA after midnight. As temperatures drop into the 30s areas of frost are certainly possible across most of our CNY counties. Will hold off on issuing any frost advisories at this time, and let the next shift take a look at one more round of updated guidance to increase confidence on exactly where will see the best chance at frost.

Monday night will be the coldest night of the week, with a 1025mb surface high firmly entrenched over the region. Skies will be clear and winds light once again. Blended in some of the colder guidance to bring lows down a bit from the deterministic NBM guidance. Expecting lows well down into the 30s areawide, with widespread frost and even some freeze potential. If confidence continues to grow that this scenario will indeed play out, freeze watches and/or frost advisories would be needed for portions, if not all of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Monday will feature partly sunny conditions and mainly dry weather. However, the latest guidance is showing that a weak mid level shortwave will drop through the area in the afternoon. This wave will bring a slight increase in moisture with it, along with increasing instability associated with the cold air aloft (and modest daytime heating at the surface). With this in mind, decided to go above the NBM, and bring in the potential for isolated pop up showers as this feature drops NW to SE across the area. Any showers should be light and brief in nature. With 850mb temperatures around -1C in the afternoon, it will be another cool and breezy day, with highs only reaching into the 50s (except low 60s Wyoming Valley). Tuesday will feature mostly sunny and dry (but still cool) weather under a large surface high pressure system.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The next upper level trough/low begins to drop toward the region from the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are in good agreement, lending to higher confidence, that periods of rain will develop later Tuesday night, continue all day Wednesday, Wednesday night and into Thursday as the slow moving upper level feature traverses our area. Temperatures will remain cool under the upper trough, held down by all the clouds and rain as well. Look for overnight lows in the 40s, Tuesday through Thursday night and daytime highs only in the 50s to low 60s once again. It is a little early to pin down forecast rainfall amounts, but probabilities for greater than a half inch are increasing. It finally looks to gradually dry out and warm up heading into next weekend, and perhaps the following week as well.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A showery front slipped through during the first half of the night, with post-frontal conditions featuring ceilings mostly in the 2-4 kft range early this morning before scattering out and going mostly clear later today. KRME-KITH-KBGM will at times reach below 2 kft to fuel alternate required levels this morning, probably even IFR at KBGM for brief periods. That said, all terminals improve to VFR as drier air overtakes the region midday through evening, via west-northwest winds that will occasionally gust into the teens knots range, perhaps past 20 knots for KRME. Winds slacken this evening.

Outlook:

Late Sunday Night through Tuesday evening...VFR, except there is some uncertainty for whether shallow valley fog may attempt to form at KELM near dawn each morning considering recent rainfall and ongoing greenup underway which may contribute moisture.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday...Showers likely with associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.