textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fog was added to the forecast for tonight following the departure of showers. Chances for thunder were removed for Saturday as instability will be limited.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today and tomorrow. Additional showers will be possible to start the weekend.

2) Conditions will begin to trend warmer this weekend with above normal temperatures expected next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface low pressure will move across the Great Lakes today and bring a frontal system into the Northeast. As this system approaches the region early this morning, cloud cover will continue to increase. Rain showers will linger behind some, not pushing in until mid to late morning and spreading eastward through the early afternoon. There remains some uncertainty on coverage though areas west of I-81 will have the best chance for morning showers. The CAMs kickoff isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon within the warm sector. The final round of showers and storms move through this evening into the overnight hours. While there will be some elevated instability through the overnight hours, any severe potential should quickly diminish after sunset.

There is quite a bit of spread in model guidance with expected instability later today. While the NAM and NAMNest usually run hot, the latest runs show 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE for most of the region this afternoon. Meanwhile, the 00z HRRR has little to nothing for instability with values under 500 J/kg. The morning showers and cloud cover will be a factor in this. Areas south of the Southern Tier are favored to be dry through the early afternoon hours, so this is where higher instability would be expected. There is good agreement with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 kts. If there can be some instability, this would be enough shear to support some stronger storms. Another limiting factor appears to be the mid-level lapse rates. These are usually one of the missing ingredients and later today looks to be no different as they will be modest at best. A marginal risk for severe storms seems reasonable for today with winds being the main hazard.

Drier air will move into the region behind the departing showers late tonight into early Friday morning. However, the low will linger north-northeast of the region. Wraparound moisture from this low and passing waves along an upper trough will support isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms for parts of the region. As these showers come to an end late Friday, a weak system will stretch from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Showers from this system potentially move in as early as Saturday morning, but there is uncertainty on the track. Some models favor a band of dry air across the region and limit the northern extent of this system. Others keep the drier air more north, allowing for showers to extend northward. For now, this update leaned on the NBM that has chances for showers extending into Central NY. Instability looks to be limited with this system so thunder chances were removed from the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned upper trough will slide east Sunday as a ridge extending well into Canada begins to build into the region. This will allow for temperatures to trend warmer heading into the start of July. Initially, the humidity will be fairly low Sunday and Monday but will increase midweek. Temperatures will be above average as highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with potential for low 90s in valley locations by Tuesday. There is quite a bit of spread between ensemble members for this warm up. Part of that is likely due to the potential for scattered showers and storms both Tuesday and Wednesday that could help bring some short-term relief from the heat.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR rain showers will spread from west to east this morning. A more organized line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening hours. The best chance for storms is over ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP, but confidence in timing and storms hitting terminals is too low to have anything higher than a PROB30 in the TAFs. SYR and RME may also see some storms but confidence in storms occurring across the northern part of the area is low given the rain and clouds expected for much of the day.

Patchy fog is expected to move in tonight behind the rain. Currently, ELM has the best chance for IFR restrictions. BGM and ITH may also see fog, but confidence is not high enough to go any lower than MVFR restrictions at this time.

Outlook:

Friday through Saturday...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...VFR likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.