textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Southwest winds were increased with gusts of 25-40 mph expected on Tuesday. Temperatures were nudged slightly warmer Tuesday as well, especially from Ithaca, Elmira, Norwich south and eastward. Chances for rain and thunderstorms were updated to be in line with the latest Convective Allow Models (CAMs) through Tuesday evening. A Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms was introduced across portions of Central NY Tuesday afternoon and evening. Also, out ahead of the showers and storms it will remain warm, sunny and breezy Tuesday so a Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of fire spread was issued.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise breezy southwest winds are expected, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph Tuesday afternoon across the region.

2) A slow moving frontal boundary pushes through mid-week with additional rounds of steady rain and scattered showers.

3)Another broad trough remains in place for the weekend and early next week bringing more cool and showery weather to the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Breezy, warm and partly sunny conditions will continue around the region into this evening. SW winds are gusting up to 25-35 mph this afternoon, and these will slowly diminish back to mainly under 20 mph overnight. Some elevated convection and showers move in along an incoming warm front after midnight into the predawn hours. These can contain occasional lightning and put down up to two tenths of an inch of rain locally. Otherwise, it will be mild and partly cloudy with lows in the 50s tonight.

Tuesday starts off mainly dry and partly sunny in the morning, there could be a few isolated showers around. SW winds increase again, reaching 10-20 mph by midday and into the afternoon; gusts will be up to 25-40 mph. The warm southwest winds will allow temperatures to reach well into the 70s areawide (perhaps even low 80s in the Wyoming Valley). Clouds gradually increase from NW to SE over the region in the afternoon hours, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the Finger Lakes, Central Southern Tier and upper Mohawk Valley. Some of the storms could be strong to isolated severe with gusty winds, hail and even an isolated tornado. This is due to SBCAPE reaching close to 1000 J/kg, deep layer 0-6km shear of 40- 45kts and low level 0-1km SRH up to 160m2/s2 over this region. SPC continues to highlight much of CNY (north of the Southern Tier) under a Marginal Risk for severe storms with this update. The best timing for any severe storms should be between about 2-7 PM Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Some of the showers and storms could also produce heavy rain with PWATS just over 1 inch expected.

A strong low level frontal boundary then pushes south and east heading into Tuesday evening and night, with periods of rain following it into the Twin Tiers and NE PA overnight. A wave of low pressure then rides up along the front as it stalls over the area. This will bring a steady period of rain across the entire CWA Wednesday morning into the early afternoon hours. The center of the low is then expected to track directly over the area Wednesday afternoon. There will be a sharp temperature gradient on either side of the stationary front, with temperatures on the NW side of the boundary likely holding in the 40s much of the day on Wednesday across the Finger Lakes, Syracuse area and Mohawk Valley. The front's position looks to be somewhere very close to Broome County, with areas south and east reaching into the 60s. There is even a chance for some late day instability south and east of Binghamton, where there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms heading into Wednesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After the aforementioned low moves north and east into New England conditions should dry out late Wednesday night, with only a lingering slight chance for showers. It will be cold with lows in the 30s to 40s over the area. Thursday is trending drier, with again just a slight chance for some pop up showers and cool highs in the 50s for most locations. Weak surface ridging remains in place Thursday night, bringing light winds and partly cloudy conditions. If skies can clear out enough there will be a risk for frost or perhaps freeze conditions in some locations overnight into early Friday morning. The rest of Friday will be cool with more scattered showers around. Highs are in the 50s once again.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A broad upper level trough remains in place over the Northeast US and the local area right into early next week. Several waves of low pressure are forecast to ride along this trough in the west to east flow over the area. Exact timing of these waves remain uncertain this far out in time. However, chances for rain are starting to increase on Saturday as the ensembles try to hone in on the timing and positioning of this shortwave. The forecast uncertainty rises for Sunday and Monday, so for now stuck with WPC/NBM guidance which shows isolated to scattered showers Sunday and Monday, with temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s during the day, and overnight lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Overall, an unsettled, cool and showery pattern looks to be persistent in this timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Conditions will be be VFR throughout most of the TAF period. A chance of showers are possible at RME and SYR tonight, but not expecting restrictions. Southeasterly winds overnight will be slightly less strong but still gusty. Then winds become more southerly tomorrow morning and get stronger through midday. Peak gusts of near 30 kts will be possible at most terminals.

Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be possible from 04-12Z at all terminals with speeds of 40 to 45 kts. There is potential for isolated to scattered showers at SYR and RME tomorrow afternoon ahead of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are expected to move into the area late afternoon and continue into the early evening at all NY terminals.

Outlook:

Tuesday Afternoon...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at Central NY terminals starting in the late afternoon with restrictions possible under heavier rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Chances for showers and restrictions.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will reach well into the 70s Tuesday afternoon over the area. Skies should remain partly to mostly sunny over the Catskills region through much of the day. This will allow RH values to fall between 30-40% in the afternoon and early evening hours. Southwest winds will be sustained between 10-20 mph, with gusts of 25-35 mph (locally 40 mph on exposed ridgetops). Considering all of these parameters decided to issue a fire weather special weather statement for Delaware and Sullivan Counties. Further to the west, across the rest of the Leatherstocking region the min RH looks to hold between 40-50% in the early afternoon, so decided to not hoist any Special Weather Statements here at this time.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.