textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fog was added to the forecast for the rest of today through Friday morning. Winds were also increased for tonight and into Friday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend warmer through the start of the weekend though shower chances remain in the forecast during this time as well.

2) A strong cold front will move through early Sunday and bring temperatures back down below normal. Conditions will also be cold enough to support light snow early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The cool, cloudy, and misty conditions will continue overnight and into Friday. Isolated showers and possibly some thunderstorms will continue off-and-on through tonight as well as multiple rounds move through. A shallow inversion will keep moisture trapped in the low- levels, keeping fog and mist around through Friday morning, even with winds become breezier tonight.

Southwesterly flow returns tonight and will begin to advect warmer air into the region. For tonight's lows, temperatures will not drop much from where they end up maxing out today. Temperatures then surge into the 60s and 70s Friday as warmer air continues to lift north. The inversion will erode by midday Friday. After a brief period of dry conditions, a weak cold front will drop south into the region Friday afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will continue to sweep south before exiting the region late Friday evening.

Conditions will continue to feel like early summer as temperatures once again surge into the 60s and 70s following a weak warm front moves through. This front may kick off some some showers early in the day. Otherwise, it is looking dry though some pop-up showers cannot be ruled out ahead of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong cold will then move through Saturday night into Sunday morning. This front will bring widespread rain showers to the region. Given the timing, thunderstorm activity will be minimal. However, PWATs will be elevated to around 1.2" which is about 3 standard deviations above normal. Despite some drier periods between now and then, this potential for localized heavier rain will put hydro concerns back on the radar, especially for those areas recently hit the hardest.

Following the front, much colder air will fill in behind the departing front. This will lead to conditions cold enough for snow as wrap around moisture from the surface low, an lingering upper trough, and west to northwest winds over Lakes Ontario and Erie will support lake enhanced precipitation. These snow showers will likely continue into Monday as well. Significant snowfall accumulations are not expected at this time, though light accumulations will certainly be possible. A weak system will bring a round of light snow to the region Tuesday before high pressure finally returns to dry conditions out by midweek. After the cold front passage on Sunday, temperatures will stay below normal through at least midweek.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Fuel Alt to IFR ceiling restrictions are expected to remain through most of the period as moisture lingers. Some isolated to scattered showers return late tonight for RME/SYR/ITH with MVFR visibility and IFR ceiling restrictions expected. While guidance continues to show IFR or lower ceilings for AVP overnight, confidence in this remains low given the southeasterly wind and expected downsloping off the higher terrain, so restrictions were kept slightly higher. Winds aloft will also increase during this time as a jet streak approaches, which can lead to some southwesterly LLWS of about 35 to 45 knots, especially at the NY terminals through about 16z Friday.

Conditions gradually improve to MVFR, and eventually VFR for Friday afternoon and early evening as the clouds lift and scatter out.

Outlook:

Friday Night through Saturday...Isolated to scattered rain showers and a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms; associated occasional restrictions possible.

Sunday...A frontal system approaches the region with additional showers and restrictions possible.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.