textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat advisories were expanded to now include the entire forecast area on Tuesday. The Heat advisory was extended in time, through early Wednesday evening for the Wyoming Valley surrounding counties in Northeast PA. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are increasing for the weekend, especially on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1)A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible along the NY/PA border into this evening. Otherwise, hot weather and dry weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across the area.

2) The ridge of high pressure continues to retrograde west, with some east coast troughing trying to bring cooler, but more unsettled weather, for the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak boundary is draped across Central NY and far northern PA this afternoon and evening. With sufficient low level moisture and MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg this is allowing a cumulus cloud field to form. A few isolated showers and t'storms are forecast to pop up through sunset, mainly across the Twin Tiers and Catskills region. Conditions dry out overnight as upper level ridging builds overhead.

On Tuesday, 500mb heights are still progged to rise up around 594dm, with 850mb temperatures pushing +23C by afternoon. Guidance, including the latest NBM continues to show high temperatures well into the 90s for most valley locations, with upper 80s to low 90s for the higher elevations. With surface dew points expected to rise well into the 60s Tuesday afternoon (localized around 70F) that will push heat indices between 95 to 105F for most of the area. Confidence is high for these hot temperatures and heat indices as skies likely remain sunny to mostly sunny all day. Sounding show a strong cap, which should keep any cumulus clouds very shallow and FEW to SCT at best. Therefore, with higher confidence decided to expand the heat advisory to all of Central NY and Northeast PA for Tuesday, in effect 11 AM to 8 PM. Tuesday night stays very warm and humid, with lows on in the 70s. Thunderstorms look to stay north of our forecast area, up across the Adirondacks. Any t'storms are expected to fizzle out and dissipate toward sunrise Wednesday before reaching Oneida County or the Mohawk Valley.

On Wednesday, height start to fall as the ridge flattens and breezy northwest winds develop. Drier air will advect into the area from the north, with dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s across Central NY by afternoon. Temperatures still reach the mid-80s to low 90s across Central NY and the northern tier of NE PA; but are expected to fall short of heat advisory criteria. Further south across the Wyoming Valley and NE PA south of I-84, the NW downsloping flow and lingering low level moisture will still allow for very hot conditions to develop. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s in the Wyoming Valley, with peak heat indices between 95 to 105F expected. Therefore, the heat advisory was extended in time for Wyoming--Luzerne--Lackawanna--Pike and Southern Wayne county through early Wednesday evening. Otherwise, the weather remains dry and mostly sunny areawide on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry northwest flow persists on Thursday, with sunny skies, low humidity and highs in the 80s.

Friday is likely to stay mainly dry as well, but troughing starts to dig into the Northeast US a bit more. Overall, still looking at mainly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to 80s for most locations.

Upper level heights fall and a shortwave disturbance pushes through the forecast area. Model ensemble guidance is trending wetter, pushing PoPs into the likely category for Saturday; with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. After this, heading into the second half of the weekend and early next week the weather pattern remains unsettled with slightly cooler than average temperatures and shower/thunderstorm chances each day. Upper level troughing remains firmly in place across the Northeast US early next week. This leads to highs in the mid-70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Tuesday). There is a small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon at KITH, KELM, or KBGM, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

WSW winds at less than 10kts this afternoon will become light and variable tonight. WSW winds will pick up once again by the late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday. Occasional gusts up to 20kts will be possible at the Central NY terminals Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR; patchy morning low clouds/fog possible.

Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038>040. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ043-044-047-048-072. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.