textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A broad trough of low pressure will remain over the region into next week bringing several rounds of showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The first in a series of disturbances looks to move through overnight and through the morning on Saturday. Enough lift and moisture look present for another round of showers. Quickly moving in behind this feature will be a cold front passing through Sunday which should lead to a few more showers. Early next week still looks like a break in the action with high pressure passing over us. However, another system looks to dive from the Plains into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday with renewed chances of showers. While it will be showery, most of the activity still looks to be light.

Temperatures are still expected to be seasonably cool with upper 30's and low 40's for lows with highs in the 50's and 60's. Ensemble guidance has ticked slightly stronger with winds Tuesday morning which would limit any frost potential.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Clouds are now becoming more broken this afternoon and will scatter out more, with gradual clearing this evening. VFR conditions are expected most of this afternoon and evening across the forecast area.

The next wave of moisture brings restrictive ceilings and rain overnight, moving in from south to north across the area after 06-09z Saturday. The rain is not expected to reach SYR and RME until around 12z Saturday morning.

As the light to moderate rain moves in expect MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs to develop, with some IFR CIGs eventually possible heading into Saturday morning; especially at BGM, ITH and/or ELM for a few hours. The rain tapers off and ends as some isolated showers toward the end of this TAF period, with CIGs starting to slowly rising by early Saturday afternoon.

After that, there is a chance for a return to lower end VFR conditions at most of our TAF sites by late Saturday afternoon and early evening as the rain and clouds gradually clear.

Expect westerly winds 5-10 kts gusting up to 20 kts this afternoon...and lasting through 22Z before becoming light and variable overnight, less than 5 kts. Winds then turn east- southeast heading into Saturday morning between 5-15 kts.

Outlook:

Saturday PM through Sunday Night...Cool and unsettled period with intermittent chances for showers and restrictions.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chance of isolated showers (especially Monday morning).

Wednesday...Showers likely with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.