textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Main changes with the afternoon forecast package were to remove the chance for thunder for most of the area due to extensive cloud cover/not enough instability and to lower forecast temperatures by a few degrees (also due to the extensive cloud cover). Still cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but chances continue to decrease for this to happen.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers this afternoon into early this evening will give way to cooler and drier weather Friday through Saturday.

2) An unsettled weather pattern will take shape beginning on Sunday with multiple rounds of rain showers and cool temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extensive cloud cover today has significantly limited daytime heating/instability and therefore the potential for thunderstorms have decreased. Still cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, especially if pockets of clearing develop. Locally heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding still cannot be ruled out, but this potential has also decreased.

Showers will gradually end from west to this evening, as the front moves east of the area. This will set the stage for a mostly sunny day on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s as high pressure will be in control. Friday night will be seasonably chilly with good radiational cooling conditions present. Lows in the 40s are expected Friday night/early Saturday morning, but some of the usual colder spots in northern Oneida County/parts of the Catskills may drop down the mid to upper 30s. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in these locations, but confidence was not high enough at this time to include in the official forecast just yet.

One more dry day is expected on Saturday with high pressure remaining in control. Mostly sunny skies are expected, although some higher clouds may sneak in from the west later in the day ahead of the next system. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another low pressure system will approach from the west Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the next round of rain to the area. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport moisture northward, supporting the potential for moderate to widespread rainfall. Showers may continue through much of Sunday before gradually tapering off by Sunday evening. Monday currently looks mainly dry as surface high pressure develops north of the Great Lakes. That being said, some lingering showers will be possible in Northeast PA on Monday.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Tuesday, leading to increasing uncertainity in how the midweek pattern will evolve. Either way, the general pattern is looking cool and unsettled, but timing of the scattered rain showers is very uncertain, with dry periods in between.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions across the region as a cold front slowly moves from NW to SE. Earlier IFR/MVFR cloud decks have lifted a bit as drier air works its way in behind the front, with only ITH holding on to MVFR with some extra lake moisture getting pushed into the terminal.

Restrictions are expected to return tonight as we have some low level moisture trapped near the surface, allowing for the cloud deck to lower to MVFR restrictions. Clouds should start to scatter out from NW to SE later tonight as dry air wins out, bringing VFR conditions to most of the terminals. ELM may see some IFR and lower clouds and visibility to develop as the clouds scatter and we get some better surface cooling. Confidence in this occurring is moderate as it will also require boundary layer winds need to lighten up, but may have difficulties doing this with the cold air advection occurring. Went with a TEMPO group for LIFR ceilings that may need to turn into a prevailing group on the next TAF set. ITH is also expected to see a period of IFR conditions as skies scatter later tonight and lake moisture gets pushed up to the terminal. Guidance is not showing as much confidence in IFR and lower here vs. ELM, but the lake moisture should allow for some temporary IFR restrictions before sunrise.

Outlook...

Friday Night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday through Tuesday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.