textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slightly lowered temperatures for the next few days. The rest of the forecast package remains on track as newer high-resolution guidance is integrated into the chances for severe weather today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A system tracking to the north of the area will bring scattered showers and thunderstorm today, especially in the late afternoon into the evening. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with damaging winds and hail.

2) After a brief return to near-normal temperatures on Sunday, another ridging pattern will bring a return to above-normal temperatures for most of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A shortwave on the leading edge of an upper level trough will move into the area around sunrise, which should kick off scattered rain showers with an isolated storm or two mostly north of the Southern Tier, moving east of the area by mid-morning. A few isolated showers may remain over Central NY into the late morning hours. A cold front is forecast to enter into the area from the northwest starting in the early afternoon hours and slowly track to the southeast. This front will trigger scattered rain showers and strong to severe storms through the late evening hours as it slowly progresses through the region.

We're seeing ingredients needed for severe weather develop align over the area today as the front moves through. Modeled parameters of up to 1500 J/kg of CAPE, with 30-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, and some decent mid-level lapse rates will allow for any storms that are triggered to become severe. However, the ongoing uncertainty of timing of the front is coming to a clearer consensus among models. If severe storms were to develop, the main threats include strong to damaging winds, as well as hail.

Even with the potential for morning daytime convection and some scattered rain showers, there should be enough destabilization going into the afternoon hours to allow for a rather uncapped environment heading into the late afternoon/early evening hours, which the consensus for the surface front and trough axis to begin to track into our area, meaning any triggered storms could grow fast into strong to severe storms.

Currently, the best chances for severe weather development would be from the Southern Tier south and east into NE PA and the Catskills. Given the likelihood for morning daytime convection and showers in Central NY, confidence for severe storms is a little lower, since this may decrease the time for destabilization for severe weather development.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another ridging pattern is expected to develop Sunday night through Monday, with northerly flow across the region between a ridge to the west and trough to the east keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area on Monday. The trough to our east will slide east Monday night, allowing the ridge axis to move over the region on Tuesday and southwest flow to return, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Hot temperatures are currently forecast to continue through the rest of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. We may see some rain showers midweek as a trough tries to move in from the Great Lakes between the departing ridge and another ridge building in the central US, but guidance is too varied at this time for anything other than low confidence in rain showers developing.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the early portion of this morning. By the mid-morning, some brief MVFR ceilings will be possible from a batch of rain showers, although chances are that most terminals still remain VFR.

More widespread MVFR restrictions start to move in by the late afternoon as a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms moves through. If any terminal is impacted by a heavier downpour, brief IFR restrictions will also be possible. That being said, confidence in seeing IFR restrictions is currently too low to include in the TAFs. Most of the rain clears the area by 03Z, but some lingering low ceilings and/or patchy fog will result in some lingering restrictions.

Outlook:

Sunday...SOme lingering ceiling restrictions possible in the morning, otherwise becoming mainly VFR.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.