textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts for Northeast PA to the Catskills was once again increased for Saturday night, but also reduced for Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a dry period of weather, the next round of rain showers and some thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

2) After a return to dry and cooler weather Monday and Tuesday, warmer weather and scattered showers and thunderstorms returns by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will be directly overhead tonight. With clear skies and light winds, good radiational cooling conditions will be present. This will result in cool temperatures (lows in the lower 40s to near 50; upper 30s in northern Oneida County), and some valley fog.

The high pressure system will depart the region on Saturday as a warm front approaches the area. This will result in increasing clouds, and eventually rain showers moving into the area. The majority of the area will likely be rain-free during the daytime on Saturday, but a few showers may sneak in west of I-81 during the afternoon.

The most concentrated period of rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms will be Saturday night/early Sunday morning. PWATs will be around 1.7 inches and coupled with a decent LLJ, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The greatest threat for this will be across Northeast PA-Catskills. While widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, cannot rule out some localized flooding issues late Saturday night.

There will likely be a bit of a lull in the rainfall Sunday morning, before a cold front will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Depending on how much clearing occurs, some of these thunderstorms may become strong to potentially severe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of the cold front, cooler air will move into the region, which will bring highs in the 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will keep conditions dry during this period. Another system may bring some scattered showers and potentially some thunderstorms by the middle of next week, along with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period for all terminals. Some high clouds are approaching from the southwest and with the drier air in place today, this may keep ELM from seeing low cloud and fog formation. However, with the good radiational cooling setup with high pressure overhead and light winds, low temperatures there tonight will be very close to or reach the crossover temperature for fog formation. For now, visibility in the forecast has been trended higher, but still kept a TEMPO in for IFR/LIFR restrictions prior to daybreak given some uncertainty.

Clouds increase tomorrow and winds become southerly as a warm front approaches. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, mainly around ELM prior to the end of the TAF, but can't be ruled out around ITH and AVP. Rainfall spreads farther north and east after 00Z Sunday with associated restrictions.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday...Restriction possible as a frontal system moves through bringing rain showers to the region.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.