textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances of rain showers tonight into tomorrow morning with a more potent frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming over the next couple of days as upper level ridging builds in with a few chances of rain showers and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend.

2) Watching potential for a stalling front late this weekend into early next week that could bring more persistent rainfall which may be heavy at times.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With a strong ridge of high pressure to our south we have predominantly zonal flow aloft. While tonight into tomorrow was originally looking drier, water vapor and satellite imagery is showing a stronger shortwave moving in late this afternoon and overnight. CAMs have picked up on more shower activity so chances of precipitation were increased overnight. With the increase in low level moisture and continued warm air advection tomorrow, precipitation chances still look good with a weak frontal passage Thursday morning into the afternoon. Precipitable water values creep above 1.5 inches so any thunderstorms or showers that do form along the front will have heavy rain. Timing of the front is early in the day prior to any significant CAPE development but if the front can trend later, there could be a low severe thunderstorm risk with greater than 30 knots of shear in place.

Surface high pressure builds back in Friday with drier weather returning for Friday into Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Late this weekend into early next week the center of the ridge to our south moves off the SE coast with some hints at a weak surface low forming in the gulf. This will help with moisture returning to our region. With the Zonal flow aloft and a trough trying to dig into the Northeast US, a convergence zone/stalled frontal boundary will form from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. While the location of this stalled boundary is still uncertain, many of the models and ensembles have ticked upwards with their accumulated precipitation amounts. Deterministic and individual ensemble members are consistent with up to 4 inches of rain over several days where this convergence zone eventually sets up.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period for all terminals. Guidance is showing some very scattered rain showers developing along a warm front moving through the area this evening. The issue is very dry air will be near the surface so if any showers do develop, they more than likely will not hit the ground. If they do, it will be very light and restrictions are not expected. If rain happens to fall at ELM this evening, there is a small chance for patchy fog to develop late in the overnight hours with some brief IFR restrictions. Winds look to be too strong at and just above the surface to allow fog to generate so confidence is very low that we will see restrictions develop. Because of this, the ELM TAF was kept at VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions, especially in the afternoon.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Scattered rain showers and associated occasional restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.