textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Some minor adjustments to shower coverage and rainfall amounts through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered showers with some lake enhancement are still forecasted through Tuesday.
2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Our region will be under a broad trough of upper level low pressure through Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon should begin to decrease this evening with the loss of instability. Southerly to southwesterly winds should dry things out for most of the night into Monday. However, low level lapse rates should steepen during the afternoon leading to the development of additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Small hail can not be ruled out given the modeled lapse rates.
The wind direction should become more westerly to northwesterly later Monday night through Tuesday pulling some lake moisture into the picture and generating lake effect showers across CNY.
Rainfall amounts look fairly light with only brief heavy downpours. Temperatures though trend cooler due to the clouds and rainfall with highs barely making 70 and lows in the 50's. Our first real feel of fall this year.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A break is modeled Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area. This still looks short lived as another cold frontal boundary moves through the region Thursday and Friday. Enough lift and moisture should be present ahead of the front for a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures warm a bit Thursday and Friday into the 80's with the southerly flow. Slightly cooler air and high pressure looks to build into the region next weekend.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Scattered rain showers and storms are possible through the early evening, with TEMPO groups included at every terminal. Storms will be quite scattered, and if one were to move over a terminal, brief restrictions are possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are then expected to prevail over the area this evening into tonight, as the lake effect rain bands stay just north.
Outlook...
Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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