textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures again tonight with clear, calm conditions once again.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, fall like pattern continues into Wednesday, with a gradual warm up expected into mid week.

2) A front moves in Wednesday night into Thursday bringing rain and isolated thunderstorms to the region.

3) Generally dry benign weather returns towards the end of this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The stacked upper level low is slowly moving to the east today with ridging starting to build back in. Weak warm air advection with the ridge building in will help high temperatures climb into the upper 70s and low 80s Tuesday into Wednesday. Surface high pressure and dry air in place will keep the region dry and mostly sunny the next couple of days before some high clouds begin to advect in Wednesday. With the surface high in place along with clear skies, valley fog formation is expected once again tonight. Increasing surface winds and drier air in place tomorrow may lower the coverage of morning fog Tuesday night into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An area of low pressure that forms in the lee of the northern Rockies today will pass north of the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday dragging a cold front through the region. Models and ensembles have come into better consistency with the front passing through late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Ensemble probabilities of Most Unstable CAPE >500 and shear >30 knots has fallen down to around 10%. Picking out the ensemble members that meet the criteria, have the front passing through later Thursday and given they are outliers, confidence is high that the severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Still given some elevated CAPE in model soundings, a few thunderstorms embedded in the stratiform precipitation along the front is likely.

Rainfall with the front is a higher concern but will likely cause little to no problems. Precipitable Water values are still up between 1.5 and 2 inches with decent moisture being advected poleward ahead of the front. Deterministic models have backed off on a secondary low forming along the front so the potential for a more prolonged period of rain is waning. The front looks to be fairly progressive as it moves through so training thunderstorm threat is also lowering. Brief heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some of the thunderstorms may lead to localized urban flooding if they occur over a town or city.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the front is through, we enter a period of westerly Zonal flow with not many shortwaves in the flow, at least not modeled currently right now. With surface high pressure building back in, conditions Friday into next weekend may be very similar to this stretch of weather that we just had this weekend. 850 mb temperatures are a few degrees cooler so temperatures may be in the upper 60s and low 70s rather than low to mid 70s like they were this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions for the terminals this afternoon with fair weather cu across/near most of the terminals. There are some periods of MVFR CIGs with some of the denser patches of fair weather cu this afternoon. As drier air slowly shifts east across NY, the potential for these brief MVFR CIGs will decrease, as seen across SW NY.

High pressure will center over the area tonight and clouds will mostly clear out this evening with VFR flight conditions expected. Some higher clouds, currently near the upper lakes will try to fill- in overnight, but should remain at the higher levels. With mainly clear lower levels and light to calm winds, fog can be expected again, especially at the favorable spots (ELM & ITH) with BGM having some fog at the lower elevations from the terminal that may get close to the runway. Fog will cause lowered CIGs & VSBYs, likely down to LIFR at times for the more favorable locations.

Tuesday, mainly VFR, with lower cats early due to morning fog. Sounding profiles are a little drier in the lower levels than previous days, so the fog may burn off a bit quicker Tuesday morning.

Daytime winds, both this afternoon and for Tuesday will remain near or below 5 mph out of the northwest to northeast or variable.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building into the region. Morning fog will be possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.