textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances of precipitation tonight, as showers along the front overnight look like they could be more widespread.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Several fronts move through today, with steady rain this morning, then another batch of showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight.

2) Another pocket of cold air aloft moves in early next week with well below average temperatures and potential for widespread frost and isolated freezes possible.

3) Active pattern to end this week, as the overall weather pattern begins to trend warmer into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak warm front is lifting into the region early this morning with steady light rain moving through NEPA and eventually into NY by sunrise. This front is in no rush, so rain will linger through much of NEPA into the NY Thruway corridor into the early to mid afternoon. The Tug Hill may escape most of the rain as the front stalls and then moves east, never really lifting all the way north. Despite rain for most of the day, precipitable water values are only around three quarters of an inch so rates will be only around a tenth of an inch per hour, perhaps up to a quarter inch an hour in heavier showers. Total rainfall expected could be up to a half inch in portions of the Twin Tiers into the Catskills but most of the region will see less than a quarter inch.

Tonight, a cold front moves in from the west, with some showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanying it. With the front not arriving until after dark, the lower atmosphere will be stable so no severe weather is expected despite some higher 0-6 km shear of around 50 to 60 knots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a brief warm up this weekend, another pocket of sub freezing 850 mb temperatures advects into the region. Overnight trends in the 850 temps were a little warmer, and a surface high does not build in as fast. Still, min 850 mb temperatures fall to between -2C and -4C. Monday night has the highest risk of frost, and with the growing season starting for the rest of NY and PA, frost headlines will likely be needed. Overnight lows have >80% chance of falling below 35 through the Twin Tiers, though the Lake Ontario plain and the Wyoming valley have odds closer to 30%. Since the surface high has slowed down, north winds may persist for more of the night, which will help with mixing and prevent any hard freezes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By mid week, the long wave trough axis is finally east of the region. NW flow will continue aloft, though warmer air is starting to work into the Northeast from the west.An area of low pressure moves through Thursday into Friday bringing some chances of light rain once again. As with the story of recent rain, this low is cut off from any meaningful moisture sources so not expecting any significant rainfall amounts. After Friday, ensembles show 850 mb temperatures finally climbing back to climatological averages and potentially above average.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

While initially VFR for all terminals as of 06Z, moistening up is occurring along a weak warm front with developing showers for KAVP-KELM-KBGM-KITH, eventually lowering ceilings and occasionally visibility into MVFR category this morning. IFR appears unlikely, except for KBGM ceiling at times during late morning. Even KSYR-KRME which should escape this first batch of showers, should eventually slip into MVFR ceilings for a time in early afternoon. Then by this evening, another approaching front will cause new scattered showers for at least KSYR-KRME and perhaps KITH-KBGM-KELM. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out but confidence is much too low to include in TAFs at this time. Variable to light southeast wind, will veer south or south- southwest as the warm front lifts by this afternoon, yet still fairly light generally under 10 knots.

Outlook:

Late Saturday night through Sunday Night...Unsettled with scattered showers and intermittent minor restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Showers likely with associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.