textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shower and thunderstorm chances have trended earlier for Sunday. Showers and storms could hit as early as late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues through most of Sunday morning.

2) Active weather returns starting Sunday afternoon, continuing through much of the new work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The dry weather to start the weekend will continue into Sunday morning for most areas. This will occur as high pressure tracking across the area will slowly track off the coast through tonight. As the sfc high pushes east of the area, temperatures and humidity will increase some from previous days. A shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will start to increase the potential for showers with a few thunderstorms starting later Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Showers with some thunderstorms will increase in coverage for Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave trough crosses the region during the peak heating of the day. Another batch of more organized showers will track across the area as another shortwave tracks southeast along a stalled frontal boundary across the region. This will become the theme for the coming work week as a ridge develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley to the SE CONUS. Northwest flow events over the region will continue along the northeastern periphery of the ridge through the week. This will result in several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the week at different times. The greatest potential for severe weather is expected for Wednesday when a potent shortwave trough will dive southeast across the region. This is still in day 5, so a lot can change and any changes in the track of the trough are certainly possible, resulting in storms further south or north of current forecast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will persist at most terminals through the next 24 hours as high pressure slowly slides to the east. The exception will likely be ELM where another round of valley fog should fill in late tonight/Sun morning. An area of 6-8kft SCT to BKN clouds is pushing in from western NY, but should continue to break up through the afternoon. Skies expected to be mostly clear with thin high clouds after 02Z. The next push of mid/high clouds arrives after 15Z. A SW wind behind the departing high tonight will push clouds into the area and keep winds light. More patchy valley fog is expected at ELM tonight. A few showers could be in the vicinity of ITH and/or ELM by 16-17Z Sunday, before a better chance after 18Z.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon and Sunday night...Mainly VFR with scattered showers and isolated storms and periods of MVFR or lower restrictions in the rain.

Monday through Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions, especially each afternoon/evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.