textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure continues to bring gorgeous weather and seasonable temperatures into Sunday.

2) Active weather returns to portions of the area starting Sunday afternoon. Showers and storms remain in the forecast through mid-week as an upper level trough sits over the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong surface high pressure system centered over CNY will continue to bring pleasant weather with seasonable temperatures thru Sunday. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow for temps to fall into the low to mid 50s. A few of our colder spots could see upper 40s for lows. Some warmer air is expected to round the top of the ridge centered over the central US and move into the area on Saturday and Sunday. Highs are forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. With dewpoints in the 50s, it will still feel somewhat comfortable outside.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

On Sunday, the strong ridge over the central portion of the country should have a weakening in the NW quadrant, allowing a shortwave trough to dig into the Great Lakes region. This would allow for some light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms west of I-81 in the afternoon. The ridge that is currently over us will slide to the NE and should continue to have enough influence to squash a lot of precipitation development, especially east of I-81. We are seeing signals for more showers and storms starting Monday night into Wednesday as a stronger shortwave moves into the region from the north central US. This trough will strengthen and develop a surface low somewhere between the eastern Ohio River Valley and southern Ontario Mon Night/Tues AM. This surface low will deepen as it tracks east. Scattered showers with some isolated thunder will be possible, thru Wednesday. A low track to the south should keep severe weather chances to our west and south, while a low that develops over southern Ontario and moves into NY could allow for some better severe storm dynamics to develop over portions of the CWA. The current guidance is too varied to have strong confidence in either solution so we will continue to monitor how the pattern develops.

The trough axis should be east of us by Thursday, bringing NNW flow and pushing high pressure back into the area. Temps will be seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with dry conditions heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Strong high pressure will bring VFR conditions across much of the region through the TAF period. We may see some patchy fog at ELM lat tonight, but with current dewpoints in the mid 40s and forecasted lows in the low 50s, confidence is not high enough to include IFR restrictions from fog in the TAF at this time.

Outlook:

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm may result in brief restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...Afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.