textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Multiple adjustments have been made to the forecast with the mid-morning update. First, significantly increased cloud cover for the remainder of this morning into this afternoon. Also lowered hourly temperatures by a few degrees for this afternoon due to this more extensive cloud cover. Finally, added in PoPs for this morning for a round of showers moving through parts of the Finger Lakes Region to the Mohawk Valley.

Although not a certainty, the increased cloud cover could lower the severe weather threat for this afternoon/evening due to less instability. Will continue to monitor.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front moving through the area will bring thunderstorms to the area late this afternoon through the early evening. Some of these thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging winds or hail.

2) Benign weather is expected through around the middle of the week, before an upper level trough will support the next weather system to bring more rain showers and thunderstorms starting on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front is expected to move through the area this afternoon, bringing heavy rain showers and strong to severe storms with it. With the front as the main forcing mechanism, in combination with moderate to strong 0-6 bulk shear values of 40-50 knots (with pockets of over 50 knots), and CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, any storms that develop will have the potential to produce strong to damaging winds. High shear values will help to have a more distinct organization of storms into multi- cluster or line segments, which could also lead to widespread strong to damaging winds this type of storm organization, rather than discrete cells. Timing looks to start in the mid- afternoon in the Finger Lakes and western Central NY, and moving east-southeastward going into the late afternoon and evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Going into next week, an upper level trough situated over Canada will be the driver for the upcoming week's weather. For the first portion of the week, slightly below average to average temperatures can be expected, with weak surface ridging keeping chances for precipitation low. However, a shortwave riding along the bottom of the trough deepens in a more organized area of low pressure, tracking over the Great Lakes Thursday morning. There is a lot of uncertainty currently, as the timing of the incoming disturbance would determine the development and timing of potential storms, as well as the positioning of the main low center and how long the area would be under the warm sector before any forcing mechanism comes along. Regardless of uncertainty, active weather is expected starting Wednesday, and likely stretching through the end of the week as the trough helps to propagate shortwaves into the area, bringing chances for showers and afternoon storms. Temperatures increase through the week thanks to relative southwesterly flow.

AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions with sct to bkn high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning and early afternoon hours areawide. Winds will turn southwesterly today, between 6-12 kts, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible in the afternoon.

Later today, after 20Z or so, a front drops into NY from NW to SE bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. Right now, thunderstorms has been put into tempo groups as confidence in timing is increasing. Thunderstorm impacts are likely at some point at all terminals between 20Z this afternoon and 03Z late this evening.

After the thunderstorms move out, the flow turns northwesterly, with lingering showers and mist around. This will keep MVFR fuel alternate CIGs, and even IFR CIGs (ITH, BGM, RME, SYR) around from about 02-09z. Then, there could be some slight improvement at the end of this taf period toward 12z Monday.

Outlook:

Monday Morning: Lingering MVFR clouds and CIGs possible at or around BGM, SYR and RME.

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple disturbances pass through; associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.