textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Low chances for precipitation were added for this morning. Otherwise, no other significant changed were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining slightly colder than average with off-and-on chances for light snow showers throughout the work week.

2) A clipper system late in the week and into the weekend will bring a chance for snow as well as a strong arctic front. Below normal temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chills well below zero.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak wave will move through this morning and could support some light snow showers and flurries, mainly across Central NY. Little to no snow accumulation is expected as moisture will be limited. An upper-level low will sweep across just north of the region and overnight leading to some additional light snow showers just clipping our CWA. Light snowfall accumulations of an inch or less will be possible by Wednesday morning across northern areas of Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida Counties.

As the low drifts east, flow becomes favorable for lake effect snow showers Wednesday and Thursday. With flow fluctuating between northwest and west, the best chances for snow will be across the eastern Finger Lakes and up into the Tug Hill Plateau north of the NYS Thruway. As mentioned in previous updates, with ice cover increasing on the Great Lakes, this round of lake effect snow will be limited. Still, an additional accumulation of 1 to 2 inches will be possible between Wednesday and Thursday. Drier air then moves in late in the week to bring a brief lull from any snow shower activity.

Clear skies to start the night led to temperatures quickly dropping, especially in the lower elevations as a sharp inversion is present near the surface. Clouds moving in should help moderate temperatures and could lead to some locations warming back up slightly early this morning. While a cool start is expected for some, temperatures will climb into the 20s across the region today. Throughout the work week, daytime temperatures will max out in the 20s but that will change by this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A more organized system will drop into the region late Friday into Friday night. This shortwave will have more moisture and better forcing than the systems expected earlier this week, leading to widespread snow across the region. With this system, a strong arctic cold front will sweep through, and with a strong pressure gradient, winds will become gusty. The potential for snow squalls looks low at this time given the expected overnight timing of this system and little to no instability. However, with strong gusts, there likely would be blowing snow. While there is some uncertainty with the timing, snow will potentially linger into the Saturday as then exits the region. Otherwise, lake effect snow will develop behind the departing system as arctic air moves in with 850mb temperatures between -20 and -30 deg F. With the strong gusts, wind chills will be well below zero and cold weather hazards will likely be needed through the weekend and potentially into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A deck of low clouds and flurries has overspread the region this morning. While these have mainly kept VFR conditions around, occasional MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected to move in by the late morning. Ceilings may occasionally return to VFR this afternoon before a return to more persistent MVFR ceiling restrictions return by the evening, becoming MVFR to Fuel Alternate late tonight/early Wednesday morning. The one exception will likely be at KAVP, where a return to VFR conditions is expected this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday night...Lake effect clouds and snow showers may result in occasional restrictions at all terminals except for KELM and KAVP.

Friday through Friday night...Restrictions likely with widespread snow showers, along with potential snow squalls and/or blowing snow late.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible at KSYR and KRME with scattered snow showers. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.