textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Freeze Warning has been issued for Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties for tonight into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A blustery start to the weekend is in store as lingering lake effect precipitation eventually comes to an end this afternoon.

2) High pressure builds into the region this weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures will not rebound much from the morning lows as highs today will only be in the 40s. Strong low-level flow will linger over the region through most of the day and mix down to the surface, resulting in wind gusts over 20 mph at times. These gusty winds will make it feel quite blustery as wind chills will be in the 20s this morning and likely stay in the 30s for most of the region today. The cold northwesterly flow will also support some lake effect showers through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Some wet snow may mix in early this morning but little to no accumulation is expected. High pressure will begin to build into the region later today and will help cut off any lingering showers as it brings a drier airmass. The northwesterly flow will keep skies cloudy into the afternoon, though skies will eventually clear to full sunshine.

The first hard freeze of the season is expected tonight into Sunday morning. Temperatures were lowered slightly below NBM guidance given that conditions will be favorable for good radiational cooling. Low temperatures will be in the 20s across the region. The Freeze Watch for Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties has been upgrade to a Freeze Warning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The high pressure will stay over the region and most of the eastern US throughout next week. A low pressure system will develop along the East Coast Sunday and lingers off the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic through most of the work week. The high pressure will keep precipitation associated with the low out of the region. Gradual warm air advection after tonight will help temperatures get back closer to seasonable normals by Monday. Temperatures will vary little after Sunday with highs consistently in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Some valley locations will approach the 70s for daytime highs during the midweek period.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A mix of VFR/MVFR to locally IFR conditions will linger in the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight into tomorrow morning, with MVFR ceilings expected to be predominate much of the time. With a north-northwest wind in place later tonight into early tomorrow, there can be some isolated light lake effect rain showers that can mix with or even briefly change over to snow showers/flurries, mainly around SYR, ITH and BGM.

Ceilings are expected to start breaking mid-to-late morning and continue into the afternoon with clear skies in place by the end of the TAF as high pressure moves in overhead. Gusty north- northwest winds will also continue through much of tomorrow before beginning to ease late in the day and into tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...High pressure leads to mainly VFR conditions with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ044-047. NY...None.