textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased cloud cover once again for this afternoon, although there will be a gradual break-up of the clouds with partial sunshine. Lowered forecast low temperatures for tonight by a few degrees due to radiational cooling conditions setting up. Finally, increased winds for Thursday as there will be tight pressure gradient developing due to an anomalously deep low pressure system for this time of the year moving across the Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather along with seasonably cool temperatures is expected through Tuesday.

2) An upper level trough will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the end of the week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Thursday, along with breezy conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A very cool afternoon is in progress with temperatures only in the 50s and lower 60s for most of the area. Clouds have been a bit stubborn, but are slowly breaking-up. This will allow for temperatures to rise a few more degrees, but still only top out in the 60s for most of the area. Parts of the Wyoming Valley- Poconos may touch 70 degrees, but even that is roughly 10 degrees below normal for mid-June.

As the clouds dissipate tonight, the mostly clear skies, light winds, and high pressure overhead will set the stage for radiational cooling conditions. This will result in cool conditions with lows forecast to get down into the 40s for most of the area. It is not out of the question for some of our usual colder spots (particularly northern Oneida county) to drop to the upper 30s.

Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday with high pressure moving east of the area and a southwesterly return flow developing. This will result in temperatures returning to near-normal levels (mainly in the 70s). Mostly sunny skies are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Active weather will return starting on Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week as multiple shortwaves pivoting around longwave trough over Canada will move into the Northeast. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday right through the end of the week. While there remains a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing of each shortwave and there will be dry breaks in between each one, Thursday appears to be the most active day at this time as a potent shortwave moves through and more moisture and humidity advects back in.

What is becoming more apparent is the gusty wind potential for Thursday. The parent low pressure system cutting across the Great Lakes will be quite deep for this time of the year. This deep low will result in a tightening pressure gradient and allow for winds to really pick up, especially in the afternoon. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible, possibly locally up to 45 mph on some of the hilltops. This will continue to be monitored as this gets close to (but currently just under) Wind Advisory criteria.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Any borderline MVFR ceilings will continue to lift and break up this afternoon. Northwest wind gusts should subside around sunset as well. For tonight and tomorrow, VFR with light winds.

Outlook:

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Showers with restrictions likely Wednesday night. LLWS also likely Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night... Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms likely. Very breezy, southwest winds become westerly. Timing still uncertain with restrictions and wind shifts.

Friday: Possible restrictions with a chance for showers and breezy with westerly wind gusts in the afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.