textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Sustained winds and wind gusts were increased across the area through this afternoon from the previous forecast; otherwise, just some minor adjustments were made to the timing and coverage of the lake effect and lake enhanced rain/snow showers today through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and chillier today through Tuesday with isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. Snow showers are expected to be most widespread later tonight into Tuesday morning which can result in minor accumulations.

2) High pressure and drier weather is expected for mid-to-late week. Near to below average temperatures Wednesday will give way to moderating conditions for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper trough settling over the area will lead to a breezy and chillier day with northwesterly flow in place. Temperatures at 850mb continue to fall and are expected to dip to around -10C this morning, and as surface temperatures continue to fall near and below freezing to start the day, any mixed rain and snow showers are expected change over to all snow. However, with model soundings showing the moisture profile being pretty shallow, the lake effect snow showers around this morning are expected to remain light.

The snow shower activity early this morning is expected to taper off a bit midday and early afternoon, however, with the cold air aloft, some breaks of sunshine and steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, there can be convective rain/snow showers that develop during the afternoon and evening. NAM soundings in particular even show a little bit instability during this time, so a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out as the previous AFD mentioned. Highs today range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s, but the valley locations of NE PA can reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

A clipper system and supporting 500mb shortwave rounding the base of a broad upper trough move in later tonight into Tuesday, drawing down even colder air from the north and bringing a more widespread round of mainly snow showers. Given the late-night timing of this snowfall and lows falling back into the 20s and lower 30s, there can be some minor accumulations ranging from a dusting to an inch or two, with the highest totals into early Tuesday morning mainly in the higher terrain near and north of Route 20. Tuesday's highs will be mainly in the 30s, while overnight lows Tuesday night drop back into the teens and low 20s giving us quite the winter chill first thing Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As the upper level trough departs Tuesday night and high pressure begins to build in, one of the longer stretches of drier conditions it seems in recent weeks develops Wednesday and Thursday allowing for area rivers, streams and lakes to start to lower a bit.

With zonal flow and even a little ridging aloft setting up weak warm advection, temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures are expected to go from the mid 40s and lower 50s Wednesday to the 60s area-wide by Friday. While Wednesday night still looks chilly, overnight lows return to the 40s Thursday and Friday nights. A frontal boundary looks to approach the area later Friday or Saturday, but with high pressure expected to be over the Southeastern U.S. blocking moisture-rich air coming up from the south, this system looks to become pretty moisture-starved by the time it reaches our area.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Scattered snow showers continue across portions of the area, with SYR and RME expected to have the best chance at seeing off and on showers for the next few hours, with MVFR restrictions possible. Snow should start to dissipate by 10z with MVFR ceilings lingering into the morning hours. ITH/ELM/BGM will also see periodic MVFR ceilings into the morning hours. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals by mid morning.

Scattered rain showers are expected to move over the area in the afternoon, but with dry air at the surface, most of the precipitation is not expected to reach the ground. A low pressure system is expected to move over the area in the evening, which will bring some scattered snow showers to CNY, with ITH/ELM/BGM having a chance at snow showers and MVFR restrictions.

Winds are expected to be active through the morning hours, with gusts between 20-30kts tonight, weakening to around 20kts in the morning hours. Gusts should dissipate by the mid afternoon hours.

Outlook:

Late Monday through midday Tuesday...A clipper system will brush by with initially mixed rain-snow showers, becoming scattered snow showers with possible restrictions, as colder air is reinforced across the area.

Late Tuesday through Thursday Night...Mainly VFR.

Friday...A weak frontal zone may encroach into the area with a chance of rain showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.