textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast for the early morning forecast package. Next main batch of rain arrives midday today and becomes more widespread/steady this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain will move into the area this afternoon and become more widespread this evening, before tapering off Thursday morning.

2) A cool airmass settles into place late this week through the weekend, which will lead to below normal temperatures, scattered showers, and the possibility for frost or freezing temperatures during the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure will move into the region by this afternoon, which will bring the next round of rainfall. This rain will initially have to overcome some dry air this morning, so while radar may show some weak returns in the morning, most of this will likely not reach the ground until this afternoon. Rain will be enhanced by a somewhat negatively tilted shortwave trough moving through late this afternoon through this evening, and therefore the rain could be moderate to locally heavy at times. That being said, flooding is not a concern with any heavier showers being rather progressive/likely not remaining over one location for a long time. An embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with marginal instability aloft, but confidence in having any thunder is too low to include in the official forecast at this time.

Highs today will likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but may end up being a few degrees cooler than that with the extensive cloud cover and rain moving in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A long wave trough will set up over the Northeast, leading to a cool north to northwest flow. This will keep temperatures below normal Friday into early next week. 850 mb temperatures could fall to around -5C, especially overnight Friday and Saturday, which would be cold enough for snow to mix in if precipitation can persist into the overnight hours.

Overnight lows around freezing will lead to frost potential if skies clear for long enough, and even some localized areas reaching freezing. While the growing season is not currently active in our area, the growing season for several counties (Yates, Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Lackawanna, and Luzerne counties) begins the morning of May 1st. Therefore, it is possible that the first frost/freeze headlines for 2026 may be issued later this week. The growing season for the rest of our counties begins the morning of May 11th.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Low clouds will bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions for most terminals this morning. Conditions will deteriorate further this afternoon and evening as rain moves into the area, with some IFR restrictions likely at most terminals this evening/tonight. Even after the rain tapers off late tonight/early Thursday morning, lingering IFR restrictions are expected from lingering lower clouds and patchy fog/mist.

Outlook:

Thursday through Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers popping up each day with associated intermittent restrictions possible. Otherwise mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.