textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry weather will continue today with high pressure in control.

2) A passing low pressure system will bring showers Saturday, perhaps mixing with some wet snow at the highest elevations Saturday night in the Poconos to Catskills as colder air moves in behind the system.

3) Several systems moving through next week with chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will nose into the region with mixing bringing down plenty of dry air to the surface. Winds do look a bit lighter given a decreased pressure gradient. Given plenty of sunshine, most locations should get into the 60's today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Our NBM guidance is better handling a localized cooling pocket Saturday due to the expected widespread showers moving through the area with a good chunk of the area only seeing temperatures in the 40's. Enough dynamical and evaporational cooling may occur for some of the highest elevations in NE PA and the western Catskills for rain to change to snow at times Saturday afternoon and night. Most of the modeling is only suggesting a brief duration of mix or snow, coupled with a warm ground accumulations are not likely at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Monday still looks like a pleasant day across the region with high pressure over us. The next low pressure system has trended slightly slower with more indications from ensemble guidance with some showers lingering into Wednesday and Thursday as well. Still some timing differences within the ensemble guidance at this timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

No aviation weather concerns as VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through the current TAF period (at least through 06Z Saturday), with dry high pressure in charge. Mid level clouds arrive after sunset, with cloud bases reaching 5-8kt ft agl by the end of this 06z TAF period.

Winds either variable or light north northwest, shifting to easterly after sunset into the Friday evening hours.

Outlook:

Late Friday Night...Lowering ceilings and chances of showers encroach from southwest towards dawn. MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt possible at ELM, AVP, BGM and ITH before 12z Saturday.

Saturday through Saturday night...Rain showers and associated restrictions expected as a low pressure system passes through. IFR or lower likely at ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP at times.

Sunday Morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected again today with fairly low humidity levels especially east of Interstate 81 in New York, into the far northeast corner of Pennsylvania. However, winds will be quite light, with high pressure dominating our weather. A wetting rain is anticipated Saturday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.