textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for precipitation were added for Monday night as a shortwave passes through.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A coastal low grazes the region tonight. Another weak system will pass through Monday night.

2) Milder conditions are expected through the work week before temperatures trend cooler next weekend. A couple of systems will bring widespread precipitation with rain, snow, and a wintry mix all possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will slowly drift east today but will keep conditions dry during the daytime. Early morning fog/freezing fog will clear up shortly after sunrise with some peeks of sunshine possible before this evening. Temperatures will climb into the 30s and 40s.

A coastal low will graze the region tonight as it drifts out to sea. There will be some moisture with this system and being on the colder side, light snow is expected. The best chance for accumulating snowfall will be across NEPA and into the Catskills. Most will see less than an inch, though higher elevations of the Poconos could see 1 to 2 inches. As this system passes to the south, a weak shortwave will drop into the region from the north and bring scattered rain and snow showers to portions of CNY, mainly along and east of I-81. While confidence is low, localized pockets of freezing rain/drizzle cannot be ruled out over the Syracuse area, though significant ice accumulations are not expected. For areas that see mainly snow, up to a couple of tenths are possible by Monday morning.

High pressure returns on Monday through another weak system will drop in overnight. NBM guidance was not showing much for this system, so a blend of NBM, Consall, and manual adjustments were used to increase PoPs during this period. With mild temperatures expected, precipitation will be mainly rain though in the higher elevations and areas where conditions stay closer to freezing, snow and even freezing rain will be possible. At this time, snowfall accumulations will be light, maybe a tenth or two. Ice accumulations are not expected but untreated surfaces could get a light glaze.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Weak ridging will favor temperatures trending warmer through midweek. From Tuesday through Thursday, temperatures will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Depending on how much warmer air extends north and if skies can clear for a bit on Tuesday, some locations could see temps closer to 50. Temperatures then trend colder into the weekend following a cold front late in the week.

Throughout next week, there is quite a bit of uncertainty. A low pressure system over the upper Midwest will strengthen Tuesday night. A frontal boundary associated with this system will extend across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This front lifts north into the region early Wednesday and slowly moves through, not exiting until Wednesday night. With milder conditions present, precipitation will be mainly rain, though a rain snow mix or just snow will be possible as temperatures cool during the overnight hours. A couple of passing weak waves could kick off some scattered rain and snow showers Thursday. Then near the end of the week, another low pressure system in the Midwest will lift a warm front northward but a cold front is quick to follow as this low moves over the Great Lakes and into Canada by the start of the weekend. Initially, precipitation should be mainly rain, especially once the warm front moves through but as colder air filters in behind the cold front, rain would transition to snow. With all of these systems, temperatures will play a role into what precipitation types are observed. Colder solutions would favor more snow whereas warmer solutions would favor more rain. Then with temperatures around freezing at times or going from above to below freezing, a wintry mix would also be possible. Because these systems are still several days out, this forecast kept precipitation types simple with rain, snow, and rain/snow mix but freezing rain cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Fog and LIFR restrictions have settled into ELM this morning. The clouds overhead should keep fog and associated restrictions in area until the mid morning before lifting to VFR. An MVFR/Fuel Alt cloud deck will sit over the rest of the CNY terminals into the mid-morning before scattering out and becoming VFR into the evening hours.

A storm system passing to the south this evening into the overnight hours will bring MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions to all terminals starting after 01z. AVP has the best chance for snow showers, but confidence in steady snow reaching AVP is low so IFR was not introduced in this TAF set, but there is a chance these restrictions could reach the terminal for a few hours.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Weak clipper system and coastal low far to the south could bring snow showers with associated restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, possible restrictions late Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain or wintry mix.

Thursday...Restrictions possible as low pressure systems passes south of the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.