textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cloud cover over the area has kept temperatures warmer than expected this morning, otherwise no other major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers continue today with light accumulations over north central NY.

2) Arctic air mass remains in place through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Lake effect snow showers continue over central NY this morning with light accumulations. Radar imagery shows that lake effect has retreated some, but snow is still being observed at Syracuse. In other words lake effect is still occurring, but at a more shallow layer that the radar is overshooting. Lingering flurries this morning are also expected over the twin tiers region along with some finger lake enhancement. Otherwise north northwest flow off of the lakes continues today, so expect these lake enhanced clouds and snow showers to persist. Lake effect is expected to retreat sometime this evening with drier conditions returning to the region.

Key Message #2...

A blanket of clouds has settled in over the region keeping temperatures from falling below zero. Temperatures this morning should hover right around zero, with borderline wind chills. Despite this, kept the cold weather advisory in effect through Sunday morning as temperatures will still feel cold and potential for cold wind chills returns tonight. Arctic air mass is expected to hold through the weekend. Highs today and tomorrow will only climb into the teens. Temperatures tonight are again expected to fall below freezing especially over the eastern portion of our region, the western half will be just above. Wind chills will again be reevaluated for tonight especially over northeast PA, where winds are expected to pick up early sunday morning. This could allow wind chills to fall below -20 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A cold west-northwest flow will keep widepsread stratus or strato-cumulus clouds around the area all day today. CIG heights will be mainly between 015-030 much of the time, bringing MVFR restrictions and MVFR Fuel Alt. A few flurries or light lake effect snow showers will be possible, intermittently at SYR, ITH and BGM. These could bring brief MVFR vsbys, especially at ITH and BGM early this morning. It's possible some occasional breaks in the overcast develop, with sct to bkn sky conditions at AVP and RME later this afternoon...but overall the forecast is for these sites to remain MVFR through the day. After sunset some slightly drier air starts to work in from the northeast, eventually scattering and lifting the MVFR stratus to VFR at all sites except ELM overnight and by the end of this taf period.

West winds will generally be light at 5 to 10 kts throughout the morning hours today. Winds turn more N-NW and increase between 5-15 kts this afternoon and into the evening hours. Northerly winds become even gustier at BGM and AVP toward Sunday morning, with gusts 15-22 kts expected.

Outlook...

Sunday...Lingering MVFR ceiling restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals. Low chance for some IFR.

Sunday Night...Lingering MVFR to localize IFR CIGs continue at most taf sites in the cold N-NW flow

Monday Through Wednesday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to occasional lake effect.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.