textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A winter weather advisory was issued over the eastern portion of our region for freezing rain this evening and overnight. Total ice accumulations are around one tenth to one quarter of an inch with slightly higher amounts in higher elevations of the Catskills.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain will overspread the region this morning from the southwest to northeast as a stationary frontal boundary stalled over the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to push showers over our region through the overnight period. Temperatures this morning are hovering near freezing, but as precipitation moves in temperatures are expected to gradually climb limiting freezing rain potential. There may be some pockets of freezing rain possible in spots that are at freezing for a bit longer. Otherwise rain showers will continue throughout the day and overnight period. However as temperatures fall below freezing this evening, the threat for freezing rain returns across the eastern portion of the region, especially the Catskills and Mohawk Valley. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for Oneida, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties in New York, where up to a quarter inch of ice or more is possible in the Catskills. Most locations within the advisory area, however are expected to receive less than a tenth of an inch of ice. There is also potential to expand this advisory to Wayne and Pike counties later today if confidence increases that temperatures will drop below freezing there.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Multiple rounds of rain combined with warmer temperatures will cause rivers and streams to rise late this week into early next week. Temperatures Saturday are expected to be well above average with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A cold front moving through Saturday night into Sunday will bring widespread rain with PWATs around or slightly above one inch, which is anomalously high for this time of year. This may lead to locally heavy downpours and continued rises on rivers and streams. River ensemble forecasts show several forecast points potentially reaching action stage with the possibility of minor flooding at a few locations. Despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures Sunday will remain above normal with highs mainly in the 50s. Southwest flow returns early next week allowing temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s and possibly even warmer by midweek. Rivers and streams will need close monitoring during this timeframe for potential flooding, including possible isolated ice jams.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A system will push across the region today and tonight. Rain overspreads the region this morning and IFR and lower restrictions are expected. Widespread low ceilings and fog should develop with the rain and last through the TAF period. SYR and RME do not see rain until the afternoon hours and IFR visibility and ceilings will be possible by this evening. RME could also see temperatures dip below freezing late tonight and a period of freezing rain will be possible.

Outlook:

Friday - Saturday...Multiple chances for rain and fog with fluctuating restrictions throughout the week.

Sunday and Monday...Improving to VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for NYZ009-037-046-057-062.