textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes were made to the forecast package. Lowered the forecast low temperatures for early this morning due to radiational cooling expected.
KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure will continue to bring pleasant weather and seasonable temperatures into early Sunday. Morning valley fog is likely throughout the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware river basins.
2) Showers and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Sunday afternoon through the middle of next week as the next upper level trough moves into the area.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to bring pleasant weather through Saturday, with clear skies and seasonable temperatures. With nights starting to get a little longer and some boundary layer moisture in place, areas of valley fog will develop in the overnight hours, lasting through sunrise. Daily high temperatures expected to be 80s today through Sunday. Due to good radiational cooling expected tonight, we have blended the NBM10 guidance into the minimum temperature guidance to account for more cooling than an average forecast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A broad upper level trough will build over Canada during the first half of next week with seasonable to slightly below average temperatures and higher chances for precipitation. CAPE and shear values increase and combine from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday enough to flag that time period for thunderstorm activity. The most active day appears to be Tuesday as low pressure brings a frontal system across the area. Convective parameters look weaker than recent setups that produced severe weather in our region, but the trends bare watching closely. The broad trough will keep a risk of showers going through the end of the week.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the next 24 hours (at least through 06Z Saturday), besides KELM. With clear skies and light winds, fog is expected to once again develop at KELM early this morning (after 08Z) and will likely dissipate by 12Z.
Outlook:
Saturday...Mainly VFR; morning fog at KELM may result in restrictions.
Sunday...Mainly VFR, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm may result in brief restrictions.
Monday through Tuesday...Afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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