textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With relatively dry air in place at the low levels, dew points were lowered for much of today ahead of the strong cold front bringing the next round of rain by this evening. PoPs were increased on Sunday for scattered rain/snow showers with strong low level lapse rates and upper trough moving overhead.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions will be in place for much of today before a round of soaking showers and embedded thunderstorms moves in this evening ahead of a strong cold front. Behind the front, a dramatic pattern shift will occur with much colder conditions Sunday into Monday, along with a chance for snow showers for some parts of the area.

2) A gradual warming trend is expected beginning the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Weak ridging aloft will be briefly in place today leading to dry conditions for much of the day with some sunshine filtered through clouds early before clouds increase this afternoon. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough digging into the western Great Lakes sets up a strong south-southwest flow, boosting our high temperatures back up into the 70s for much of the area. This will occur ahead of a strong, and very well-marked cold front trailing from a potent Canadian low pressure system. Winds will be increasing in advance of this frontal boundary with gusts into early this evening of 25 to 35 mph on occasion.

A narrow yet significant ribbon of moisture will pool all the way up from the Western Gulf, causing rain and embedded thunder to sweep across our region late today through tonight as PWATs rise to 1.25 to about 1.50 inches. Rain looks to arrive across our western areas between 6 and 8pm and spread east the rest of the night. While hydro concerns remain low at this time, we will be monitoring areas mainly west of I-81 where some of the higher rainfall totals on the order of 0.60 to around 1.00 inch is expected into Sunday with localized higher amounts. This can result in Cayuga Lake at Ithaca reaching minor flood stage by late Sunday or Sunday evening.

As the rain reaches our far western counties early this evening, there could be some locally strong, perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts along the leading edge. While instability is very limited,0- 6km bulk shear values do look to be around 40-50 knots and with drier air near the surface, especially on GFS and RAP soundings, some of the stronger winds aloft perhaps could be mixed down to the surface with evaporative cooling. This is something to monitor later on and SPC does have Steuben, Yates and western Schuyler Counties under mainly a Marginal Risk of severe storms.

Much colder weather will be ushered in behind the strong frontal boundary Sunday through Monday night. Highs Sunday range from the upper 30s and 40s, but with strong cold air advection along with some gusty winds, these highs are expected to occur during the late morning/early afternoon before temperatures fall with scattered showers around. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 Sunday night, with any lingering rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers/flurries. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s for most, and a few lake enhanced rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest night, dropping into the 20s areawide, but at least winds will be light.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The blast of winter-like conditions will be rather short-lived as the upper trough slides to the east Tuesday and ridging gradually builds back in aloft mid to late week. As a result, once we get past Monday's chilly weather, temperatures return closer to normal on Tuesday (but still a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s). Temperatures will then continue to trend warmer Wednesday onwards next week with mid 50s to mid 60s for highs on Wednesday, upper 50s to upper 60s on Thursday, and mid 60s to lower 70s by next Friday. A weak disturbance embedded in the flow aloft may lead to some isolated showers later Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Somewhat tricky forecast for tonight in regards to IFR restrictions developing at ITH and ELM due to fog. Temps and dewpoints have fallen into the low 40s and patchy fog has already formed at these terminals. Model soundings show continued cooling but confidence is low that these soundings are picking up on the cirrus clouds moving over the area from storms in the midwest, which would limit surface cooling. Winds are also forecast to pick up around 9-10z as a trough approaches from the west. This should mix out any fog that develops. Current thinking is that patchy MVFR fog will develop tonight at ITH and ELM, with brief IFR restrictions at ITH before the winds pick up.

The marine layer that the models advertised earlier looks like it won't be as robust as previously thought, so the MVFR restrictions were taken out of BGM for this morning.

A strong front with rain showers and isolated thunder will move through the area this evening. MVFR/Fuel alt restrictions have been introduced at all terminals from the evening hours through the end of the TAF period. IFR restrictions may be possible during a heavy downpour, but confidence in location and timing is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Sunday...Blustery, chilly post- frontal conditions with probable restrictions and scattered showers.

Sunday night through Monday morning...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, then a small chance of showers and minor restrictions Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Front approaches the region with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.