textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updates to timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. Slight increase in wind forecasted on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A round of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight. Main risks are for localized minor flooding and gusty winds.

2) Somewhat windy Thursday then trending warmer with a few shower and thunderstorm chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

CLouds will be on the increase ahead of a warm frontal passage this morning. Enough lift and moisture along the warm front may be enough for some spotty showers further north along the NY Thruway. Our main concern will be the cold frontal passage tonight. Instability looks to be a limiting factor for any strong to severe thunderstorms but shear looks to be rather high for this event. Hi-res modeling has a decent handle on the timing from late afternoon into the overnight. Some of the convective showers have the potential to bring down some gusty winds or spin up a brief weak tornado even with little lightning. Also a few indications of localized rainfall of around an inch in an hours time. This may be sufficient enough for some minor urban and small stream flooding issues. Highs should get to around 80 with lows tonight in the 60's.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

West to northwest flow comes in behind the front Thursday. Modeled soundings do show the potential for some 20-25 mph wind gusts to be transported to the surface. The cooler airmass really doesn't enter the region till Friday. Otherwise, still more like late summer temperature wise. Temperatures should slowly warm through early next week with a few showers and thunderstorms around from time to time. NBM guidance is likely too cool with the temperatures given the anomalous warm air advection and ridging by September standards. Would not be surprised to see some locations get close to 90 by Tuesday. A stronger cold front with some shower and thunderstorm chances should move into the area around that time.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A high level overcast cloud deck is moving into the area tonight. These clouds, combined with active winds near the surface should keep fog from forming, especially at ELM. Guidance has backed off fog formation here over the past several runs and with the aforementioned factors, fog and IFR conditions have been removed from the ELM TAF. The rest of the terminals will be VFR through the morning hours.

A disturbance will move into the area in the late morning hours, pushing a warm front into the region that should generate some scattered showers, with more persistent rain expected at SYR and RME and decreasing in coverage and chances to the south. Thunderstorms will be possible late in the afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front, with the best chances at ELM and ITH where a PROB30 has been introduced. Confidence in thunder developing at other terminals is too low to include in the TAFs at this time as clouds and rain earlier in the day may hinder storms. MVFR conditions are forecast to develop in the evening hours at ELM/ITH/SYR/RME. RME may see IFR ceilings later in the evening hours but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building into the region. Morning fog will be possible.

Sunday...Restriction possible as frontal system approaches the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.