textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A cold Canadian air mass will continue to pour into the Northeast through the weekend and into early next week with persistent on and off snow showers. The pattern shifts by mid week with temperatures rising and chances for rain and snow later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

An upper level low continues to lift and exit east of the region, though northwest flow will persist through much of the day. This will support continued multi-band lake effect snow showers across central NY early this morning. An additional inch of snow is possible before sunrise across Onondaga county, with generally a few tenths of an inch elsewhere across central NY. As the day progresses, lake effect activity will lift northward into northern Oneida county as low level flow gradually becomes more westerly. While conditions will remain favorable for lake effect snow today, they will be slightly less supportive than yesterday. Although cold 850 mb temperatures ranging from -13 to -15 degrees C, combined with lake temperatures near 5 degrees will provide sufficient moisture and lift, model soundings indicate a more shallow dendritic growth zone.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern Oneida county, where an additional 2 to 6 inches of snow is expected. Elsewhere across central NY and northeast PA, conditions will remain relatively dry and quiet, with cold temperatures persisting. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 20s across most areas, with a few locations in northeast PA nearing 30 degrees F. Tonight lows will fall into the lower to upper teens. A weak upper level wave approaching from the west this evening into the overnight will cause flow to shift southwest, guiding any remaining lake effect snow showers north of the region by late tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Another upper level low will swing into the western Great Lakes on Saturday and impact the region through the entire period. Brief southerly flow Saturday morning will give way to an advancing trough, bringing an increase in moisture and a round of snow showers. Most locations will see less than an inch of accumulation, with warmer valley and lower elevation areas likely receiving only a trace. high temperatures on Saturday will reach the lower to mid 30s. By Sunday, the primary upper low shifts east of the region, allowing another push of colder air to move south. This pattern will once again be favorable for lake effect snow showers, with colder temperatures limiting highs to the mid teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue into Monday as cold air remains in place, with temperatures aloft falling to around -15 degrees C. A fast moving clipper system is then expected to drop into the region Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another brief round of light snow. By Tuesday night, the overall pattern begins to flatten as zonal flow establishes. A warming trend is expected to develop midweek, although pattern will remain active as a series of weak embedded waves approach the region with scattered rain showers. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this pattern, so will need to monitor the trends through the next several days.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Lake effect snow showers continue to impact CNY through the overnight hours. SYR is currently seeing periods of heavy snow, dropping visibility to IFR and below. Based on radar presentation, it looks like heavier bands will move in and out of SYR tonight with conditions bouncing between IFR and MVFR. The snow band should start to lift north around sunrise, leaving MVFR ceilings at SYR but bringing IFR visby to RME from mid morning through the afternoon hours. The band may try and sneak back into SYR from 14-18z, but confidence in this occurring is too low to include IFR conditions here.

ITH and BGM will see off and on MVFR conditions through the overnight hours as light snowfall bands move over the terminals. They should move to VFR in the morning and remain here through the end of the TAF period.

ELM and AVP will be VFR.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers. Most widespread coverage Saturday night and Sunday. Highest coverage shifts to KITH,KELM and KBGM later Sunday and Sunday night.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ018-036-037.