textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Oneida, Otsego, Delaware, Sullivan, Wayne and Pike counties until late this morning. Expecting additional pockets of light ice accumulations transitioning to a period of light snow this morning and ending before noon. Minor adjustments to rainfall amounts, timing and temperatures through the upcoming weekend. Still on track for a significant warming trend and thaw.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering wintry mix and light elevation based snow showers today.

2) Pleasant day, with high pressure, mostly sunny skies and well above average temperatures on tap for Thursday.

3)Significant warming trend with periods of rain back in the forecast Friday and Saturday. Expecting a lot of snow melt and any river ice will likely break up.

4) Cool-down, back toward seasonable temperatures early next week. Chances for snow showers and minor lake effect return.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... There are still some small pockets of surface temperatures hovering at or just below freezing across the Poconos, Catskills and Oneida county early this morning. This is leading to a mix of rain and freezing rain, with some snow/sleet also noted across mainly northern Oneida county. Temperatures look to hold steady and perhaps rise a degree or two through mid morning, before rising more substantially up between 35 to 45 degrees this afternoon. Latest mid level water vapor loop shows the center of the mid level circulation now moving across Central NY as of 330 AM EST. On the western side of this low colder air aloft is already quickly filtering into western NY, with Buffalo, Jamestown and Olean recently changing over to wet snow. The latest 08z SPC mesoanalysis shows 850mb temperatures falling to between -1 and -3C over western NY at this time, with the 0C isotherm already crossing into Steuben, Yates, and Seneca counties. Short term model guidance shows this -2C to -4C air mass at 850mb overspreading CNY toward or just after daybreak this morning. This should produce a band of wrap around rain and snow showers this morning, which eventually taper off and exit east before midday. Uncertainty exists on whether the predominate precip type will be wet snow down into the lower elevations or if it will stay more rain for the valley floors. The higher elevations should certainty see wet snow. However with surface temperatures likely to be 32-38 degrees during this snow/precip, any snow accumulations will wet/slushy and very minor...generally less than a half an inch. Can't rule out localized wet snow accumulations up to 1 inch for the higher elevations of perhaps Cayuga, Cortland, Onondaga and Madison counties. The snow or snow/rain mix will be done by right around noon. This afternoon will feature cloudy skies and mild temperatures with slightly breezy northwest winds developing (gusts 15-25mph).

KEY MESSAGE 2... A surface ridge of high pressure pushed into the area on Thursday, along with upper level ridging overhead. After some early morning lingering clouds, this will bring a rare mostly sunny day for much of the forecast area. Starting off in the upper 20s to low 30s in the morning, temperatures are expected to rise nicely, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid-40s around the region. Expect a light south wind under 10 mph through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 3... The first low pressure system is progged to track into the west-central Great Lakes later Thursday night and into the day on Friday. This will bring increase southerly flow, and increasing south winds. Temperatures Thursday night may still fall below freezing along and east of I-81 (mid-20s to low 30s) but it will remain milder west of I-81, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. It should remain mainly dry Thursday night, but clouds increase with it becoming overcast.

A frontal boundary will settle over the area on Friday with periods of rain and showers expected. Rainfall amount are looking light, generally between a tenth and one-third of an inch over the area. Temperatures surge well up into the 40s and even some lower 50s. Dew points rise into the low to mid 40s and this will hasten the snow melt. This overall weak frontal boundary stalls and washes out just east of the area Friday night. Some modestly cooler air may gradually work into the CWA from NW to SE overnight, with lows ranging from the mid- 30s to mid-40s. Little if any rain is expected Friday night.

The next low develops over the Tennessee Valley Saturday morning, tracks toward Lake Erie and southern Ontario Saturday night, before dragging a more substantial cold front through the area on Sunday. Periods of steady rain are likely to breakout over the area on Saturday and continue into Saturday night; before shifting east late at night. Right now guidance is point toward rainfall amounts around or up to about half an inch from this system. Temperatures and dew points remain very elevated Saturday, with highs 45-55F expected and dew points well into the 40s (except upper 30s north and east). This will allow for more snow melt across the area. It is becoming more likely that nearly all the snow currently on the ground will melt for the lower elevations. Current data shows generally a trace to 2 inches of snow water equivalent, with pockets of 3 inches of SWE noted across the Catskills and higher elevations of the far northern Susquehanna Region in Central NY. 1 to 3 inches of SWE exists across Onondaga and Madison counties at this time. Oneida county has more, with widespread 2 to 5 inches of SWE, locally 6-8 inches across the southern Tug Hill region of the county (i.e. Boonville, Woodgate, Point Rock and Florence area). This rain and snow melt combination will continue to be watched closely to see if any hydrologic issues may develop.

At this time no major hydro issues are anticipated, but certainly ponding of water in low lying areas and rises on area creeks and rivers are plausible. The GEFS based MMEFS river forecast do show about a 50% chance to exceed action stage at Conklin, Cortland and greater than 50% chance at Sherburne. Chances to reach minor flood stage are currently model around 10 to 15% for these river points noted above. Chances to even reach action stage are lower at Vestal (25%) and much lower at Owego and Chenango Forks (less than 10%). Much lower probabilities for even reaching action stage are noted across the Chemung basins and Susquehanna basin in NE PA. Walton has a 25% chance to reach action stage, with the rest of the upper Delaware coming in at 10% chance or less at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

Potent cold front swings through the are on Sunday, with the upper level trough settling overhead Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will turn much cooler, back to seasonable levels for this time period. Northwest winds also become breezy and gusty, likely 10 to 20 mph, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected. Official forecast went well above the latest NBM guidance and was based more off the deterministic guidance, along with forecast collaboration with neighboring Weather Service Offices. Some scattered snow showers and lake effect snow showers are expected to develop later on Sunday, Sunday night and into Monday. At this time, any accumulations are looking minor at best. The cool down looks brief as the trough looks to rebound and flatten into a zonal flow with temperatures back to being several degrees above average Tuesday into next Wednesday.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Light rain showers continue with MVFR to LIFR restrictions across the area. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR or worse for most terminals later tonight, which has been seen on upstream observations across OH and PA. A cold front will move into the area around 12Z, changing precip to snow showers at CNY terminals through the morning hours. This will keep ceilings and visby at IFR and lower. ELM will see some tempo IFR visby with rain and fog developing at the terminal this morning. Ceilings should remain Fuel Alt as current winds here promote downsloping which usually keeps ceilings around 1200-1500ft. A brief IFR visby may occur during the morning, but confidence in this is not high as most of the snow is expected to occur north and east of the terminal. Snow should exit the area by late morning, with temps warming above freezing and some drizzle expected to linger through the afternoon hours. Ceilings will remain low for most CNY terminals into the overnight hours.

AVP should see IFR restrictions until 12Z, lifting to Fuel Alt and MVFR for the rest of the day.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Restrictions likely due to low ceilings and fog.

Thursday....Mainly VFR.

Thursday Night through Saturday...Possible restrictions with fog and rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ009-037-046-057-062.