textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A somewhat cool and occasionally showery weather pattern continues.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak frontal system will push through today with enough lift for a few spotty showers early. High pressure then will nose into the region Thursday providing a brief break from any showers. A warm front tries to push into the area Friday with the main low pressure system bringing another round of showers later Friday into Saturday. Sunday and Monday should end up fairly quiet before another system with showers moves through the region Tuesday of next week.

Overall, ensemble agreement is fairly high throughout the entire forecast period. Typical timing uncertainties are present with particular features possibly shifting 12-24 hours in either direction past Friday.

High temperatures may need to be lowered a bit Saturday then again on Tuesday if clouds and showers end up being fairly widespread in the daylight. Most days with sunshine look to get into the 60's with showery days stuck in the 50's. Low temperatures look fairly uniform around 40. Did increase winds slightly on Thursday given an inverted V signature with model soundings. Still would only expect top gusts in the afternoon to be around 20 mph.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are present across the area as a few showers continue to stream across the Twin Tiers. A warm front is going to move into the area from the west this morning and will overrun lingering cold air from the recent cold air outbreak. This will create and inversion that will trap moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere and allow for an MVFR cloud deck to develop around 12-13z, lasting into the late morning/early afternoon. The footprint of this MVFR deck has shrunk a little bit from the previous forecast, with moderate confidence in the deck forming at AVP/BGM/ITH this morning. At RME, the deck should bounce in and out of MVFR for a few hours this morning. ELM and SYR look to miss out on the lower ceilings as model soundings are showing more dry air near these terminals.

Patchy fog will be possible tonight with calm winds and wet ground across the region. Currently, BGM/ELM/RME are showing strong enough signals to put MVFR visby in the TAFs. IFR is possible but confidence is not high enough at this time to include in the TAFs. AVP/ITH/SYR are showing hints of fog chances, but the signal isn't strong enough to include in this TAF set.

Outlook:

Thursday... Mainly VFR conditions expected; patchy fog possible early.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible.

Saturday and Sunday...Showers and associated restrictions possible; low chance of thunder.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.