textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments were made to the expected rain chances and timing today. Today's forecast high temperatures were lowered to be in line with the hourly NBM data. Northwest winds and wind gusts were nudged up a few MPH, especially across the Mohawk Valley and surrounding areas of Central NY. Probabilities for thunderstorms this afternoon were adjusted as well, with thunder chances now only extending across most of NE PA and the southern Catskills.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A front will drop south and east through the area today, bringing more clouds, showers, chances for thunderstorms and lower temperatures. Showers may linger into Thursday morning for portions of Northeast PA as the front temporarily stalls nearby.

2) Much cooler weather is expected Thursday afternoon, and Thursday night as high pressure builds over the area. Our weather should remain dry most of the day on Friday, with seasonable temperatures.

3) Confidence continues to increase in a rainy, cool start to the holiday weekend. There could eventually be some short dry periods later on Sunday and into Memorial Day, but high uncertainty remains on the timing of these.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The cold front is back across southern Ontario early this morning, with warm temperatures still in the mid-60s to mid-70s as of 2 AM EDT. The front will slowly drop south and east through the morning hours, along with a few scattered showers across Central NY. The front looks to reach the NW Finger Lakes and Syracuse areas by mid morning, with temperatures falling back into the low or mid 60s and overcast skies developing. The front reaches the NY southern tier by early afternoon, with temperatures falling into the upper 60s for the afternoon hours. Further south, across NE PA it should still warm up between about 75 to 85 degrees for several hours late this morning and early afternoon. Instability will build, with upwards of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE possible. As the front then approaches for the afternoon hours scattered to numerous showers and t'storms are expected to develop for the Wyoming Valley and Poconos region. At this time no severe storms are expected across our forecast area, as SPC has shifted the Marginal Risk category just south and east.

The front looks to stall near or just south of our NE PA zones heading into tonight. A wave of low pressure then rides north and east along the boundary on Thursday; this could bring another round of showers to NE PA and/or the southern Catskills, depending on exactly where this front and low pressure center end up. Confidence is low to moderate on expected rainfall and PoPs for NE PA Thursday morning, and for now the stuck with the ensemble (NBM) consensus...which only gave slight chance to low end chance probabilities for rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Central NY, Thursday should feature dry weather with decreasing clouds through the day. Temperatures will drop back into the 60s for highs, which is slightly below average. Thursday night will see good radiational cooling conditions with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light and skies mostly clear. Blended in some of the colder guidance into the official forecast for overnight lows. Expect temperatures to drop between the upper 30s to mid-40s for most locations, although a few outlying areas could see mid-30s. Will need to keep a close eye on temperature trends to see if any frost would be possible.

High pressure remains in place through the day on Friday, with some increase in clouds later in the afternoon and evening as the next front approaches from the south. High temperatures recover to near seasonable levels, in the mid-60s to low 70s with light southeast winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The next wave of low pressure rides into the area along and advancing front from the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. This will bring a period of steady, chilly rain to the area in this timeframe. High pressure retreats off to the north and east, but supplies some very cool low level air into the region. Temperatures may hold in the 50s all day Saturday with the overcast and wet conditions. Sunday features morning showers, with some drying and perhaps some breaks of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures are still cool, in the 60s for most locations. Another front moves through with more rounds of rain Sunday night into Monday morning; again there could be some drying by Monday afternoon if current timing holds. Seasonable temperatures in the low 70s expected.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

With the cold front slowly progressing, ceilings will begin to fall to MVFR/Fuel Alt through the next few hours. Minimal rain showers is expected, and if it were to move over a terminal, it's expected to be brief. Conditions are expected to return back to VFR going into the afternoon hours. A PROB30 group for storms was kept for AVP, though confidence is decreasing, but not low enough yet to take it out.

Northwesterly winds will increase as the front progresses before calming back down around 23z.

Outlook:

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.