textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Steady light rain moves in from the southeast this afternoon associated with the Nor'Easter off the coast. The slow-moving low pressure system will bring a broad area of rain over northeast PA and central NY on going into Sunday. Gusty winds will accompany the rain this weekend.

2) High pressure builds in Tuesday and Wednesday with quiet weather before the active pattern returns later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The deepening area of low pressure off the coast will combine with a surface high pressure over the Great Lakes to produce increasing northeast winds over central NY and northeast PA beginning early this morning, and continuing through the weekend. This system is expected to take a meandering track to the north today and hug the NJ coast Sunday before moving northeastward across New England on Monday.

As this system has begun to take shape, confidence has increased slightly that rainfall will spread slightly more westward and inland than anticipated on Sunday. Though we're seeing a push more westward, the threat for flooding or hydrological issues still remains low. With the bulk of expected to fall on Sunday, overall rainfall amounts beginning this morning through Sunday night is a half to three-quarter inch for northeast PA, Catskills, and portions of the Southern Tier, and less than a half inch elsewhere.

Meanwhile, wind gusts should top out around 20 to 30 mph for most of the populated areas of central NY and northeast PA, but some of the higher elevations could see occasional 30 to 40 mph wind gusts through the weekend.

The event winds down later on Monday/Mon night as the low picks up speed and lifts to the northeast. Rain will come to an end Monday night and winds will subside.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A weak ridge of high pressure builds in across the Northeast US Tuesday and Wednesday, which will cause large scale suppression and usher in a gradually drying air mass. Skies should clear out Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday. A warmer air mass moving in combined with plenty of sun on Wed will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s.

There does appear to be another open short wave that attempts to move in from the west Thursday or Friday, but the timing and placement of the boundary is still in question. If the wave holds back to the west, temperatures could climb again into the 70s. However if more clouds and rain move in quicker, temperatures could be substantially cooler.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High clouds from the Nor'easter moving up the coast have dissipated the fog that was at ITH and around ELM this morning. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the TAF period except AVP, where rain showers overnight will push ceilings into MVFR restrictions. AVP will also have a chance for rain showers later this morning thru the afternoon hours, but restrictions are not expected.

Outlook...

Sunday...Rain and associated restrictions possible

Monday...Some lingering morning restrictions possible with light rain showers, then becoming mainly VFR.

Monday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.