textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain showers and light rainfall amounts were added to the forecast for late Sunday as guidance has trended earlier and wetter.

KEY MESSAGES

1) It will be cool and breezy today with spotty showers lingering through the morning hours.

2) An upper level blocking patter develops this weekend and will remain in place through much of next week. Conditions will be mild yet mostly dry.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Colder air has filtered in behind a departing cold front. Most of the region will see a 5 to 10 degree difference between the highs today compared to what was observed yesterday. Conditions will gradually become partly to mostly sunny after some lingering showers dissipate this morning. Gusty winds will gradually become calmer as well, though some peak gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be possible yet through the morning hours as stronger winds above the surface mix down. Model soundings show potential for wind advisory level gusts in the higher elevations of the Poconos. However, there is a small window where this would occur and all of those winds would have to mix down to even reach criteria. Given this, no wind advisory was issued. These strong winds will make conditions blustery in the morning as the apparent temperature will be at least a few degrees colder than the actual temperature. Overnight, skies will be clear and winds become light. Expecting a good radiational cooling night, temperatures were lowered below most guidance using a blend of Conshort and NBM's tenth percentile, resulting in forecasted lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Higher elevations of the Catskills could see a brief period (1-2 hours) of patchy frost. Due to the brief duration and limited coverage, it was decided that a frost advisory is not needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An Omega blocking pattern develops this weekend and looks to remain in place through much of next week. For the Northeast, that means a trough will be over the region though conditions will be fairly mild as daytime temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the 60s and 70s. Nighttime temps will be near or slightly below normal as lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Weak disturbances will ride along the trough and support off-and-on rain showers early in the week. These showers will be light and not amount to much. Daytime heating may lead to just enough instability for isolated afternoon thunderstorms as well.

Late in the week, the blocking pattern stays in place. Initially, it looked like it would begin to erode, though the ridge extends well north into Canada. For the Northeast though, the trough/low will slide east, leading to more west to southwesterly flow and resulting in a slight warm up and drier conditions. There does remain uncertainty though as deterministic guidance continue to vary on how exactly the pattern will look during the second half of the week. If the trough/low stay closer to our region, then conditions will be slower to warm up than forecasted.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR cigs will rotate around the back side of a low tonight, affecting all terminals at some point. AVP will have the most intermittent MVFR cigs while ITH and BGM have the highest confidence in persistent MVFR cigs. Day time heating and dry air advecting in aloft will help scatter out the cigs by 18Z. High pressure building in tonight will cause winds to weaken considerably after sunset.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Sunday night... Mainly VFR.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.