textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and wetter weather pattern this weekend into early next week.

2) Watching the potential for a stronger low or noreaster to potentially form late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low is slowly moving through the Northeast this weekend with cool, cloudy, and showery weather expected. 850 mb temperatures have fallen to around 0C with soundings showing some destabilization this afternoon where there is clearing. Rain showers should increase in coverage this afternoon, especially along and west of I-81 where there is currently some clearing on satellite.

Tonight into tomorrow, cold air continues to slowly filter in over the Great Lakes and with flow more northwesterly, some lake effect rain showers likely develop. Day time temperatures will be around climatological averages for mid november though cloud cover at night will keep lows a little warmer than average. Rainfall amounts between the showers today and the lake effect showers tomorrow will be mostly light, with less than a tenth of an inch expected for most of the area. The Tug hill could get closer to a half inch of rain today with help of topography and NEPA may miss out on most of the precipitation tonight into tomorrow.

An additional shortwave dives out of the NW on the back side of the exiting shortwave trough that brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air. 850 mb temps drop back to just below 0C allowing for more lake effect rain showers to develop. These will once again be light and limited to the eastern Finger Lakes Region and into CNY.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Late next week into the weekend still has potential for a stronger low pressure system to form. Most models and ensembles do have an area of low pressure that forms after several shortwaves phase in the central US. The efficiency of the phase and timing is still uncertain which will affect both the low location as well as intensity. The 12Z GFS solution is one of the more bullish runs from the 12Z model suit and has a more efficient phase of the shortwaves resulting in a Miller B Noreaster. The AIGFS as well as the most recent Euro has a less efficient phase and a more suppressed solution keeping the low moving more west to east rather than up the coast into New England like the GFS. Ensemble member low pressure center locations have shifted a little south with more members representing the more suppressed solution. 500 mb trends have been to a stronger ridge over the Hudson Bay so if that trend continues then that could mean more models will also trend towards a weaker, suppressed system as well.

Precipitation type is another area with lots of uncertainty. If the GFS solution is correct and a Miller B Noreaster is able to form, the deepening low will help the northwest deformation zone of the low to dynamically cool the atmosphere and support a transition to snow. With higher QPF as well snow amounts could be locally large especially at higher elevation with pockets of 6+ inches possible. A weaker, suppressed solution would struggle to get the atmosphere cool enough for widespread snow and if it does transition to snow, it would be a wet snow that struggles to accumulate much. Sounding thermodynamic profiles even in the GFS are near freezing through the duration of the heavier precipitation so dynamic cooling is likely going to be very important in producing a swatch of heavier snow, thus leading to a great amount of uncertainty this far out in regards to snow.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A potent upper level low over CNY this evening will push to the east overnight. As a result varying conditions are expected across NY terminals with scattered showers, most numerous around RME and BGM, with MVFR/Fuel-atl to occasional IFR restrictions. As the low moves east and the flow becomes more northwesterly, ceilings are expected to become IFR late this evening and overnight around at RME, SYR, ITH, BGM and possibly ELM. Some spotty lake effect showers can persist around the northern terminals as well.

AVP is expected to be mainly VFR this evening before ceilings lower there as well to MVFR/Fuel-alt later tonight with isolated showers possible. Conditions are expected to improve late tomorrow morning and into the afternoon at all terminals as VFR conditions return with westerly winds gusting 15-20 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Showers and possibly restrictions return Sunday night.

Monday...Lingering showers and possible restrictions, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.