textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made at with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers continue through Saturday with light accumulations over north central NY.

2) Arctic air mass remains in place through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light lake effect snow showers continues with west to northwest flow. The lake effect snow showers off Ontario extend into central NY this afternoon and there has been some Finger Lake enhancement as well. Flow off of the lakes continues through Saturday, so expect these lake enhanced clouds and snow showers to persist. Accumulations are mainly expected over S. Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison counties. Areas slightly south of this could see a dusting to a half inch. Onondaga County will see a general 1 to 3 inches through tomorrow morning with localized higher amounts of 4 inches or more possible in the far northwestern portion of the county.

Key Message #2...

Arctic air mass remains over the region for the next several days. Below zero low temperatures are expected overnight. Tonight, winds will decouple in valleys and across northern Oneida County. This should allow for efficient radiational cooling with lows overnight of 10 to 20 below zero, however, where temperatures are the coldest, the winds will be lightest, so no extreme cold warnings were needed for tonight. Wind chills across the region range 15 to 25 below zero across central NY (especially along higher terrain) and northeast PA. Note some higher elevations across the region could briefly see wind chills near Extreme cold criteria overnight, but the duration and spatial coverage does not warrant an upgrade to a warning. This is especially true over higher elevations in the Poconos for southern Luzerne and Lackawanna county, as the PA threshold for criteria is also lower (20 below zero).

There is potential for winds to slightly increase Saturday night into early Sunday morning especially for northeast PA. This along with some potential clearing along the Wyoming valley and Poconos mountain region could help bring wind chills below -20 degrees for a longer period of time. A cold weather advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning for the entire region, but extreme cold products may be considered for portions of northeast PA for tomorrow night.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A cold west-northwest flow will keep widepsread stratus or strato-cumulus clouds around the area all day today. CIG heights will be mainly between 015-030 much of the time, bringing MVFR restrictions and MVFR Fuel Alt. A few flurries or light lake effect snow showers will be possible, intermittently at SYR, ITH and BGM. These could bring brief MVFR vsbys, especially at SYR early this morning. It's possible some occasional breaks in the overcast develop, with sct to bkn sky conditions at AVP and RME later this afternoon...but overall the forecast is for these sites to remain MVFR through the day. Around or after sunset some slightly drier air starts to work in from the NE, eventually scattering and lifting the MVFR stratus to VFR at RME, SYR, BGM and AVP by the end of this taf period. It is forecast to take longer, beyond this taf period of the MVFR clouds to lift and scatter at ITH and ELM.

West winds will generally be light at 5 to 10 kts throughout the morning hours today. Wind turn more N-NW and increase between 5-15 kts this afternoon and into the evening hours

Outlook...

Late Tonight and Sunday...Lingering MVFR ceiling restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals. Low chance for some IFR.

Sunday Night...Lingering MVFR to localize IFR CIGs continue at most taf sites in the cold N-NW flow

Monday Through Wednesday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to occasional lake effect.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.