textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs were increased for tonight and early Wednesday morning as a system will bring showers to northeast PA and potentially the Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A system will clip portions of the region with showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. The weather will remain active through midweek.

2) Drier and cooler conditions are expected in time for the weekend, though rain will return by early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With a broad ridge out west and a trough in the east, the weather will remain active during the midweek period. Beginning with today, a MCS will moves through the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Ahead of it, a weak wave will kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast PA and possibly into portions of the Southern Tier late this afternoon and evening. If skies stay mostly cloudy, then instability will likely be more limited than what most guidance have. However, if there can be some breaks in the clouds, then MLCAPE values could rise to around 1000 J/kg. The 0-6 km bulk shear will be between 30 to 40 kts. As usual, while low-level lapse rates are steep, mid-level lapse rates will be modest at best. Given all of this, confidence is low for strong storms today though a couple storms could become organized and have gusty winds as the main hazard.

Overnight, this system begins to drop south with the bulk of the precipitation southwest of the region. However, many CAMs and some of larger-scale models have the system drift east some, leading to showers across northeast PA for most, if not all, of the overnight period. The NAM does seem to be an outlier with the track of the system, though it should be noted that it hangs onto some instability during the late evening hours. Typically conditions will become more stable after sunset as suggested by the GFS. Still, seeing the potential for some convection, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. PoPs were increased above NBM guidance for tonight. There is uncertainty how far north these showers will extend as a passing shower or two could be observed in the Southern Tier. Patchy fog will be possible in the lower terrain areas as skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light. Locations that receive rain today may have better chances due to the added moisture.

High pressure will build back into the region on Wednesday, leading to a warm, dry day. The next weak disturbance will move through overnight and support isolated to scattered showers. With limited instability, a couple thunderstorms will also be possible. Conditions will then dry out Thursday morning but with a deepening upper level trough, the next round of showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Showers will continue during the overnight hours as a cold front drops south across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the frontal passage, the end of the week and most of the weekend will be dry and cooler. After a week of temperatures maxing out in the upper 70s to mid 80s, most of the region will see highs in the 70s heading into the weekend. While there remains uncertainty with the timing of the next system, models have trended slightly slower. A weak low pressure system will move into the region by Sunday night with the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air is quick to follow this system, though wrap around moisture may be enough to support some lingering showers on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Fog has started to develop across the region, with ITH and ELM already seeing IFR and lower restrictions. An anvil cirrus shield from a storm system in OH is entering the region, complicating the fog forecast for tonight. Given the recent rains, fog should be prevalent across the area, but the high clouds moving overhead could hinder development at BGM and ITH. ELM should stay locked in with IFR and lower conditions through the overnight hours. ITH has had some periods of IFR tonight, but is currently bouncing in and out of MVFR restrictions. Thinking is that restrictions should continue to bounce in and out of MVFR as the cloud shield moves overhead. BGM is currently VFR but the big question is will temps fall quickly enough to get fog going before the cloud shield moves overhead. I think patchy fog should develop, but remain MVFR with the clouds overhead. AVP has fog around the terminal, but winds out of the WNW are keeping fog from developing at the terminal at this time. We should be able to get some patchy fog and MVFR restrictions to develop later tonight, but once again, the clouds overhead should keep IFR from occurring. RME had some rain showers push trough the area tonight, which should introduce enough moisture to get a few hours of IFR ceilings to develop late tonight into the early morning hours.

VFR conditions are expected across the region for much of the day. AVP will have a chance to see scattered showers and storms this afternoon as a system clips NEPA. MVFR restrictions are currently expected with this precipitation.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Restrictions with overnight fog/low clouds are also possible.

Friday and Saturday...Returning to VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.