textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain showers and light rainfall amounts were added to the forecast for late Sunday as guidance has trended earlier and wetter.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool weather will continue through tonight.

2) An upper level blocking pattern will remain in place through much of next week. Mostly dry conditions are expected along with near normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With 850mb temperatures only around 3C and 925mb temperatures only around 10C, afternoon temperatures are well below normal for this time of the year. Highs across the area may not get out of the 50s for parts of the area, with the "warmest" locations still only getting in the mid 60s.

For tonight, light winds and clear skies will set the stage for radiational cooling conditions. As a result, temperatures will be on the chilly side with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Continued to go a few degrees below the NBM for forecast lows tonight due to this radiational cooling potential. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in spots, particularly across parts of the Catskills, but coverage will likely be very limited. As a result, Frost Advisories are not needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An Omega blocking pattern looks to remain in place through much of the upcoming week. This will result in similar conditions each day with near, to slightly below normal temperatures (highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows mainly in the 40s). A few weak disturbances riding along the western periphery of the tough may result on-and-off rain showers, but the large majority of the week will be mainly dry.

Towards the end of the week temperatures will likely warm-up a bit with highs in the 70s to lower 80s on Thursday and 80s on Friday. This will be due to the fact that the upper level flow becomes a bit more zonal or even some weak ridging building in. Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure building into the region is producing some gusty winds today, but VFR conditions through the period. Winds will decrease tonight around sunset with mostly clear skies overnight. Dry northerly flow should limit fog development overnight, so decided not to include fog at ELM.

Outlook:

Sunday... Mainly VFR.

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.