textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near average temperatures and drier this weekend into early next week.

2) Mid next week there is the potential for a stronger area of low pressure to pass north of the Great Lakes and bring a seasonably strong cold front through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With the central US ridge retrograding back to the west, the trough that is over New England is moving into the eastern Great Lakes region. While it is still on the warmer side today, dry air aloft is mixing down with dew points steadily falling early this afternoon. There is still a small chance at some shower and thunderstorm development, mainly for the far western Twin Tiers into NEPA. Cooler air aloft tomorrow and still some residual moisture could result in a couple of showers developing in the afternoon, mainly over the Catskills. The Saturday through at least Tuesday, surface high pressure builds in as well likely keeping the region dry. Day time highs will be right around seasonable averages with morning fog developing in the valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Wednesday into Thursday next week will have a deeper shortwave trough progressing through the Northern Tier of the US. Ensemble member MSLP means and low pressure centers are hinting at a stronger surface low developing and passing north of the Great Lakes. With most of the ensemble members keeping the low to the north, not much precipitation is anticipated outside of when the cold front moves through. Deterministic models do have a stream of higher PWATs and dew points advecting north ahead of the front so depending on timing of the fronts passage, there could be some stronger storms along it.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There are more mid and high level clouds than expected streaming in from the west, and a fair bit upstream that area headed in this direction, so this makes confidence in low cloud/fog formation a little less certain later tonight. Model soundings still support formation around 08Z-10Z, and there may be enough clearing by then, so at least occasional IFR or worse restrictions remain possible at ELM, RME, ITH and BGM. Any restrictions lift by 13-14Z and the VFR conditions are expected the rest of the day.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

Wednesday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.