textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

The weather pattern will remain active this week, with several clipper systems bringing chances for snow. Though briefly near normal Wednesday, temperatures will be mostly below normal through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Zonal flow aloft with high pressure at the surface brings a quiet but very cold start to the day. Clear skies overnight along with an arctic cold air mass has allowed temperatures to drop below zero over a large portion of the region. Most of today will generally be dry and chilly with increasing clouds as a weak short wave approaches the region. This brings a quick shot of moisture, but with dry air underneath. This will mainly result in flurries that extend into central NY with overall light accumulations. Although, Oneida county could see slightly higher totals with amounts ranging 1 to 3 inches from this afternoon and through the evening. Main concern is a clipper system that tracks over the Great Lakes and north of our region tonight into tomorrow. This is expected to bring a quick burst of accumulating snow tomorrow morning through midday. Northern Oneida County could see the highest amounts, but almost the whole area should get at least some snow before warmer air causes rain to mix in at lower elevations during the afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Northern Oneida county with snow amounts continuing to range 5 to 12 inches. With this event being temperature and elevation dependent, confidence was not quite there yet to issue Advisories for central NY and northeast PA.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

On Thursday another push of cold air arrives with northwest flow settling in. Lake effect snow showers are expected to set up especially over north central NY with additional snowfall accumulations expected. Model soundings also support the potential for scattered snow squalls in the afternoon with steep low level lapse rates, moisture in the dendritic growth zone, and modest instability. Scattered snow squalls may make it as far south as the Twin Tiers, and more numerous or organized bands are expected over Central New York. This will probably continue into Thursday night. Snow amounts overall specifically on Thursday-Thursday night may not be that high, but it could still be quite impactful because of the squall like nature of it including blowing and drifting. Lake effect will continue into Friday morning as northwest pattern lingers. A short wave then moves in by Friday afternoon shifting winds south allowing showers to tapper off. A very brief dry period looks to settle in just before the next system approaches.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Model guidance suggests another clipper system is expected through the weekend. Warm air advection looks to move in ahead of the low Friday into Saturday, with cold air following behind Saturday through Sunday. Additionally lake effect looks to set up as well behind the departing low keeping shower chances all the way through Monday. Temperatures during this period are expected to stay below freezing with highs mainly in the 20s. This will support all snow as a precipitation type. Models begin to diverge by Tuesday, but agree that the pattern remains cold.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to remain through most of tonight, although there may be some brief MVFR visby restrictions at KSYR and KRME late this afternoon into early this evening with some light snow moving in. Conditions then quickly deteriorate Wednesday morning as a round of steady snow moves into the area. Snow may mix with rain towards the end of the TAF period (late Wednesday morning into the afternoon) at KAVP, KELM, KSYR, and possibly KRME.

LLWS of 35-40kts is expected to develop this evening at KSYR, KRME, KELM, and KAVP before briefly dissipating later tonight. Then much more widespread and stronger LLWS will move in Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Additional restrictions likely along with some lingering rain and snow showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Restrictions likely in lake effect snow showers and squalls, especially at KSYR.

Friday through Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NYZ009.