textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild temperatures this weekend with isolated afternoon showers before a period of widespread rain Monday and Monday night, and a typical summer time pattern later next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The northwest flow is expected to persist Saturday along with the passage of another weaker short wave and weak instability in the afternoon that may trigger a few isolated showers across central NY. Surface temperatures on Saturday will be very similar to Friday...into the low to mid 70s in NY and into the mid to upper 70s in PA. The atmosphere will need to overcome another weak inversion aloft in order to generate updrafts above 10-15 kft, so this will be a limiting factor in producing thunderstorms on Saturday, so decided to just leave it as showers for now.

Sunday will be similar, but the pattern starts to flatten out and flow becomes more westerly. A weak ridge of high pressure aloft builds in from the west as heights aloft rise. Surface temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday with widespread highs in the mid to upper 70s...close to 80 in ne PA, and dew points will rise into the upper 50s close to 60...which will allow for increased surface- based instability. Could see a few pop up showers and storms Sunday afternoon, but with no primary forcing mechanism, such as a upper trough/short-wave or cold front and limited deep layer shear, confidence in substantial convection is fairly low.

On Monday, attention turns to a de-amplified upper wave over the Ohio Valley region and an associated surface low and surface warm front extending east across the mid Atlantic Coast. An abundance of deep moisture associated with this system will be the focus for a broad area of rain that is expected to spread through most of central NY and ne PA during the day Monday.

Probabilistic guidance is indicating that most of the region will see around 1" of rain and some isolated locations could see up to 2" over this 24 hr period. The GFS continues to be an outlier with a more southerly track of the surface low, so we continue to lean more toward the consensus northerly track of the warm front/sfc low.

At this time we are not expecting any hydro/flooding issues with this rain, but we will keep a close eye on how it evolves. The lack of instability with this system will likely limit the rainfall rates, so short-fused hydro concerns should be minimal.

The rest of the week looks active, with scattered diurnal convection, but relatively un-impactful with generally a cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and Northeast under a mostly mild thermal pattern and near normal temperatures for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR cloud deck this morning for RME should lift around noon, with VFR conditions the rest of the TAF period.

VFR conditions are expected across the rest of the terminals with breezy NW winds gusting up to 25kts this morning into the late afternoon hours.

Outlook:

Saturday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR, isolated showers Sunday afternoon.

Late Sunday night through Monday...Wave of low pressure with rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Additional restrictions possible as a short wave approaches the region with showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.