textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong high pressure will maintain hot and humid conditions today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and into the evening.

2) A cold front will push through the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

3) Memorial Day Weekend could have active weather with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast, along with the backside of an upper level ridge over the region, will continue to strengthen southwest flow and warm air advection. As a result, hot and humid conditions persist today, with highs climbing into the mid 80s to lowers 90s and dew points remaining in the mid to upper 60s. With the ridge axis positioned east of the area, the region will remain in a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development from late morning into the evening hours.

Model soundings show afternoon CAPE values generally under 1000 J/Kg with the NAM having the highest value. Otherwise mid level lapse rates are around 5-6 C/KM with 0-6 KM bulk shear values near 30-40 knots, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area. One feature that may help initiate storms is a shortwave moving across Ontario and dipping into the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate pop up showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, though the severe potential will largely depend on the extent of cloud cover through the morning and whether it lingers into the afternoon hours. Greater clearing by late morning would support increased instability, leading to better thunderstorm coverage and a higher severe threat. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to move through this evening and overnight along the approaching cold front.

Temperatures today will once again approach previous set records, though increasing cloud cover ahead of the cold front may keep highs slightly lower than yesterday. Overnight a stronger temperature gradient will develop as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows across the northwestern portion of the area area expected to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while northeast PA remains miler with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cold front moves northwest to southeast tonight into tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary. There remains some uncertainty regarding overall coverage and rainfall amounts, as initial showers will be moving into the very dry air mass that has dominated the region over the past several days.

With the front moving through the western portion of the area overnight into tomorrow morning instability is expected to remain fairly limited, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area where cooler air arrives first. Cooler highs are expected across the Finger Lakes region, while hot and humid conditions linger longer over the southeastern portion of the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop tomorrow afternoon, the better chance for that setup would mainly be across the Wyoming Valley and Pocono Mountain region where instability will be more favorable. Otherwise instability across much of the area appears rather limited.

Colder air will once again filter into the region through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure then builds in the area, bringing dry conditions through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, model guidance pushes an upper level ridge into our region by Saturday with southwest flow returning. This pattern looks to pull moisture up into the east coast from the Gulf. This should allow chances showers to return. An upper level low feature looks to move in from the west sometime Sunday night into Monday with additional shower chance before a weak ridge builds in behind it. If this feature pushes east quickly then a weak ridge could build into the region by Monday afternoon and evening. With the forecast being further out, there is some uncertainty in model guidance for how the pattern will evolve. Temperatures however look to gradually improve over the weekend with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the 12z TAF period. Ceilings begin to fall towards the end of the 12z TAF period due to an approaching frontal boundary, but we're not quite confident enough to bring them down to MVFR yet.

Outlook:

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves through the area.

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions.

CLIMATE

Near record highs expected Today. Below are the current records and forecasted temperatures for Today.

Today/Tuesday... KBGM - 87 degrees, reached in 1962 and 1996 (forecast 87) KSYR - 92 degrees, set in 1971 (forecast 90) KAVP - 92 degrees,set in 1962 (forecast 92)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.