textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances for precipitation and slight adjustments were made to QPF and snowfall amounts for the shortwave that moves through tonight into early Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect ends this morning. A weak system moves through tonight into early Saturday.

2) Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend with a slight chance for precipitation Sunday night.

3) Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through midweek but then trend cooler. A system moves through Wednesday with rain and wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light lake effect snow/flurries continue early this morning. With northerly flow, some weak enhancement is occurring downwind of the Finger Lakes. These snow showers and flurries are limited to areas right along I-81 and areas west. Drier air will finally cut these snow showers off by mid-morning. Because these are not being modeled well, a combination of Consall guidance and manual edits were needed to get PoPs over where snow is falling. Most of the region should see skies scattering out late today with temperatures climbing into the 20s and low 30s.

A weak shortwave system will drop in from the north tonight. The track is slightly more west than guidance had 24 hours ago. In addition, the CAMs are now within range and are quick to pass this system through while the global deterministic guidance hangs onto precipitation slightly longer. NBM guidance seemed a little too low with PoPs, even with the progression of the CAMs, so Conshort was blended in for the overnight hours. This seemed a bit more reasonable and did not dry out conditions as this system dropped further south into NEPA. The NBM/Conshort blend plus WPC guidance were used for QPF to increase coverage of potential snowfall accumulations. There will be some moisture with this system, so by Saturday morning, some will see 1 to 3 inches. The highest totals will be from far eastern areas of the Southern Tier and areas northward into the eastern Finger Lakes and Tug Hill. Elsewhere, less than an inch is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend, climbing into the upper 30s and even 40s by Sunday. Overnight lows follow a similar trend with 20s expected Sunday night.

Behind the departure of Friday night's system, west-northwest flow over Lake Ontario will likely kick off light lake effect snow showers. CMC seems a bit too far widespread in coverage with drier air moving in, but it could very well be the result as seen with the current lake effect snow observed over the past day. With guidance struggling to pick up on this, Consall guidance was blended in with NBM along with edits to collaborate with neighbors for PoPs through the daytime on Saturday. High pressure and drier air should help cut over any lingering snow showers Saturday night.

The remainder of the weekend is trending drier with high pressure in place. There will be a low that moves across the Southeast Sunday but remains south of the region overnight. There is also a weak wave to the north that clips northern NY. Both of these systems could just clip the region with light snow but would not amount to much.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek, but how much remains uncertain. While it initially looked like a ridge would set up over part of eastern CONUS, models are trending to a more zonal pattern. This would favor cooler air occasionally dipping back south over parts or all of the region. Then midweek, a low moves across the Midwest with a frontal boundary extending well east. There remains uncertainties with this system, though depending on the where the front sets up, this would be favorable for a wintry mix that could include freezing rain. Behind this system, colder air dips south as temperatures trend slightly cooler from the peak warmth earlier in the week.

As conditions warm, we will need to keep a close eye on the rivers and streams. Warming temperatures will help melt snow but add rain as well, and there could be enough runoff to dislodge ice leading to additional ice jams.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Lingering lake effect clouds will keep conditions ceilings MVFR at ITH through most of the night, with periodic drops to MVFR at ELM and BGM.

Guidance is showing some fog developing in the Mohawk valley around sunrise, impacting SYR and RME with IFR restrictions into the mid morning hours. Satellite images are showing some patchy fog developing west of SYR near KFYZ where the skies have cleared out and some MVFR visby developed. With the expected calm winds, clearing skies and guidance showing fog developing over multiple runs, IFR restrictions were included in the TAFs for SYR and RME.

Late in the TAF period, snow will spread across the region, bringing IFR to SYR and RME starting around 2z. ITH/ELM/BGM should see at least MVFR restrictions. IFR will be possible but signals are not strong enough to include it in this TAF set.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... Quick hitting clipper brings snow and MVFR/IFR restrictions to CNY Fri night. Lake effect snow possible through Sat, impacting CNY associated restrictions.

Sunday...Restrictions possible with the potential for a system to move into the area.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR, possible restrictions Tuesday with rain.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.