textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend warmer through the start of the weekend though shower chances remain in the forecast during this time as well.

2) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening through Sunday morning and this could cause additional flooding problems due to already high water conditions. Behind the front it will be much colder with a chance for some light snow late Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm front will cross the region today and although it will start off cool this morning, temperatures will climb into the 60s and possibly the low 70s by this afternoon. After a brief period of dry conditions, a weak short wave will drop south into the region this late this afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Conditions will continue to feel like early summer on Saturday as temperatures once again surge into the 60s and 70s as warm front pushes through. This front may kick off some some showers early in the day. Otherwise, it is looking dry though some pop- up showers cannot be ruled out ahead of an approaching cold front for Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong cold pushes through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. This system will be pushing through at night, so although west of I81 is in an SPC Marginal risk, the lack of instability will likely keep the severe threat quite low. However, a moist airmass will be in place out ahead of the cold front with PWATs close to 3 standard deviations above normal. The already wet antecedent conditions combined with the potential for more localized heavier rain will bring a threat for flooding once again.

In the wake of the front, much colder air will filter in on Sunday. Snow showers will be possible, as wrap around moisture from the surface low, a lingering upper trough, and west to northwest winds over Lakes Ontario and Erie will support lake enhanced precipitation. These snow showers will likely continue into Monday as well. Significant snowfall accumulations are not expected at this time, though light accumulations will certainly be possible. A weak system will bring a round of light snow to the region Tuesday before high pressure finally returns to dry conditions out by midweek. Temperatures are forecast to stay below normal through at least midweek with a warm up possible Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Fuel Alt to IFR ceiling restrictions are expected to remain in place through the morning hours. Some isolated to scattered showers return to RME/SYR/ITH through about 13-15Z. These showers could be heavy enough to produce brief IFR restrictions at SYR/RME. Southeasterly and downsloping off the higher terrain continue to keep cigs at AVP just above guidance, but as winds start to shift a bit more southerly around 10Z-12Z there is the potential that IFR cigs and visby may make it into the terminal before winds become SW. Southwesterly LLWS of about 35 to 45 knots is expected to persist at most NY terminals through roughly 16Z.

Conditions gradually improve to MVFR, and eventually VFR this afternoon as the clouds lift and scatter out. Another boundary is expected to drop SE across CNY with a broken line of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm from 20Z to 01Z or 02Z before slowing down across NE PA, so this will be monitored and some low cigs can return behind the front.

Outlook:

Later Friday Night through Saturday...Isolated to scattered rain showers and a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms; associated occasional restrictions possible.

Sunday...A frontal system approaches the region with additional showers and restrictions possible, especially early in the day.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.