textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Air Quality Alert has been issued for all of Central NY for the rest of today until midnight tonight. Smoke coverage was updated based on HRRR guidance. SPC has upgraded part of the region to an Enhanced Risk.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Smoke returns late today and lingers through most of the daytime hours Saturday.

2) A low pressure system will bring thunderstorms to the region on Saturday, some of which may become strong to severe with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

3) Additional showers and storms will be possible around the midweek period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As expected, the smoke has cleared out of the region and the greatest concentration is to the southwest. As the flow becomes more west to southwesterly late today, the smoke will drift back north. The HRRR guidance shows high concentrations of near-surface smoke returning to the region tonight and Saturday morning. Despite some showers early in the day, smoke may linger well into the afternoon hours before a cold front sweeps through the region. Air Quality Alerts remain active for the entire region. It will be up to state partners if these will be extended for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The start of the weekend will be active as an upper-level wave moves through the Great Lakes region along with a surface low pressure system. A warm front will lift north during the morning hours and support the first round of showers and non-severe storms. A cold front will then move through late in the afternoon into the evening with the second round of showers and thunderstorms. This second round is when strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Models generally limit the CAPE values to 1000-1500 J/kg though favor slightly higher values along the south shore of Lake Ontario. The 0-6km bulk shear will be around 40 kts for most of the region. Lapse rates are a bit uncertain, especially the mid-level lapse rates as they are weak in most guidance. While warmer air will be advected in once in the warm sector, there is uncertainty if lingering smoke, morning showers and storms, and/or sky cover will limit heating and instability. Based on the expected environment, damaging gusts will be the main hazard. High low- level shear may also support isolated spin ups. SPC upgraded much of the area to an Enhanced Risk in their Convective Outlook, continuing the highlight the wind threat.

In addition to potentially become unstable, the environment will be moist with this system. PWATs up to 2 inches and large warm cloud depths will support heavy rainfall. While this system should quickly move through with strong flow present, Corfidi vectors do indicate the potential for some training of thunderstorms. Antecedent conditions have been dry though given the lack of any significant rainfall recently. WPC maintains there Marginal ERO over the region, though any potential flash flooding would be over urban and poor drainage areas. especially those that may see multiple rounds of showers/storms tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than an inch, though locally could be higher.

An upper-level trough will dig over the Great Lakes region to start the weekend. A surface low associated with this feature will deepen as it moves into the region. This low will bring a warm front through early with the potential for some scattered showers and storms by early afternoon. Then a cold front will then follow, though timing looks to favor late in the day and into the overnight hours. Models are showing limited instability throughout much of the day, though it does increase throughout the afternoon with values as high as 1500 J/kg. The 0-6km bulk shear will be at least 40 kts. Lapse rates do look weak, especially at the mid-levels. Given this, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is low but present. The main hazard will be isolated storms with strong gusts mixing down. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for most of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Following this system, there will be a couple of cool and quite days before the next low pressure system moves in. High pressure builds into the region on Sunday and will remain in control through Monday night. Another low pressure system will move across Canada but will bring additional frontal systems through the region. Showers will move into the region as early as Tuesday morning, though there remains uncertainty with the timing. These systems will be slightly slower to move through as rain will continue through Wednesday before a dry slot extends northward. Wraparound moisture from the departing low may keep spotty showers around Thursday before high pressure has a chance to build back in. Late in the week has the potential to stay dry though some guidance want to bring in a weak system from the northwest. Temperatures throughout next week will be fairly pleasant, hovering around climatological normals.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through early tomorrow morning. Wildfire smoke is expected to lift back northeastward early tomorrow generally between 09Z-12Z, and closer to 14Z for RME and SYR. As the smoke moves in, it can become dense enough for at least MVFR restrictions at times. IFR visby can't be ruled out as the most dense smoke moves through between 12Z-18Z, but confidence wasn't quite high enough to include with this set of TAFs, but is possible with future updates.

One way restrictions from smoke may be spoiled is by scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two between 12Z-18Z, which is around the same time as the most dense smoke, so while the TEMPO groups in the TAFs cover for smoke, visby restrictions due to locally heavier showers or isolated storms are possible.

Shortly after the end of the 18Z TAF, a convective line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to drop down from the northwest which can produce strong, gusty winds and heavy rain into the early evening.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible. Locally strong to severe storms are possible during the late afternoon and evening Saturday.

The rest of Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.