textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted wind gusts and temperatures with the departing cold front. Otherwise, forecast remains unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Gusty west winds expected to continue through the night, with cold air filtering into the area.

- 2) Lake effect snow expected to develop overnight tonight for mainly Northern Oneida, with brief lake effect for Onondaga- Madison counties

- 3) Rising rivers will continue into this weekend. Ice movement still possible. Need to monitor for potential ice jams.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Post-frontal gusty west winds will continue through the night, with cold, sub-freezing air continuing to filter in.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Winds have shifted westerly from the departing cold front, where gusts are expected to increase and come back in the next few hours. The Wind Advisories remain for all of Central NY and NE PA, with up to 45 mph gusts expected through early morning Saturday.

Cold air behind the front is dropping temperatures as expected, going from mild upper 40s/low 50s, as the high temperatures this morning, and decreasing into the low 20s overnight tonight.

Some leftover showers coming in from the west may start out as mixed rain/snow with temperatures hovering around freezing, but any light showers will change over to snow as temperatures continue to drop. Accumulation isn't expected to be significant, just light and scattered snow showers could continue through the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Lake effect snow expected to develop overnight tonight for mainly Northern Oneida, with brief lake effect for Onondaga- Madison counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Lake effect snow develops during the evening once 850mb temps fall below -10C. Scattered snow showers are expected across CNY as west-southwesterly winds help develop a main band of snow north of Northern Oneida county Friday evening. This band is not expected to last long over the area as high pressure is expected to quickly build in from the southwest, bringing a subsidence inversion that will lower in high through Friday night and cut off the snow. Snowfall amounts across far northern Oneida county look to be around 2-4 inches and will depend on how close the band sets up to the border of the county. The band will shift into Onondaga, Southern Oneida and Madison counties during the overnight hours where 1-2 inches could fall, especially across upslope higher elevations of the Mohawk Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Rising rivers will continue into this weekend. Ice movement still possible. Need to monitor for potential ice jams.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Runoff from recent rainfall and melting snow will continue to cause the main stem North Branch Susquehanna and Upper Delaware rivers to rise through Saturday. Rises downstream are still expected to be sufficient enough to break up and move the established ice cover in some areas. Continue to monitor sensitive, restrictive areas along the rivers for the possibility of ice jam formation and localized flooding. Report active flooding to the National Weather Service as soon as possible.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The bulk of the precipitation is leaving the region this afternoon with some scattered snow showers moving in from the west. This batch of snow showers will affect all terminals but SYR and RME with MVFR and potentially IFR briefly through 20Z.

Lake effect snow develops this afternoon with ITH likely seeing some snow from Lake Erie so snow showers were kept in the TAFs through evening. SYR and RME will initially be south of the snow band but it will likely drop south overnight. Some uncertainty with RME in regards to whether the band can stay over the terminal or pass through quick but SYR has some higher confidence in snow showers though the intensity of the snow will be lessening as it moves in.

VFR conditions return tomorrow morning as winds calm and become more southerly.

Outlook...

Late Saturday night through Sunday night...Scattered snow showers across Central NY with occasional restrictions possible, especially at KSYR and KRME.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Wednesday...Low confidence in restrictions with mostly VFR with departing low.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ038>040-043-044- 047-048-072. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.