textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF, temperatures and snow amounts over the weekend with the periodic lake effect showers and weak shortwave disturbances moving through.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool, showery weather pattern continues through the weekend. A cold northwest flow will bring on and off lake effect snow and rain showers to the area. The shower activity will be further enhanced by a shortwave disturbance moving through the area this afternoon and evening.

2) Lingering clouds on Monday give way to a large ridge of high pressure right through the end of next week. This will bring mainly sunny skies and warmer than average temperatures to the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A slow moving, broad upper level trough is spinning over the Northeast today. The low and mid level flow is out of the northwest, and combined with 850mb temperatures of around -6C it is cold enough for lake effect showers. The showers will be mainly in the form of light snow early this morning, although some rain, drizzle and even patchy freezing drizzle could mix in at times. A stronger shortwave disturbance will drop south into and across the area this afternoon and evening. This will initiate widespread snow and rain showers. Boundary layer temperatures will range mainly in the mid-30s to lower 40s this afternoon, as 850mb temperatures hover near -5C. These relatively mild temperatures should prevent much in the way of any snow accumulation during the daytime hours today; even with persistent showers around. After sunset into this evening and overnight there could be some minor snow accumulations (< 1") mainly over the higher elevations, as the northwest flow keep lake effect/enhanced snow showers going. Overnight lows only dip down into the upper 20s to lower 30s, so will again be marginally cold enough for any accumulations. The cool northwest flow and lake effect snow/rain showers persist right through the day on Sunday. There will be little change to atmospheric parameters and temperatures for this day. Increased PoPs above the ensemble blend, as it appears quite likely scatter showers and overcast conditions will be around yet again.

The lake effect showers should gradually taper off to sprinkles and flurries heading into Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The 850mb ridge axis does not pass through our area until Monday night. Therefore, we remain locked in the cool, cloudy northwest flow pattern on Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see pockets of drizzle lingering into Monday under the thick stratus cloud deck. Temperatures remain cool only in the 40s on Monday.

For Tuesday through Saturday: General upper level ridging remains over the eastern US. There could be a very weak disturbance or front passing through toward Friday. Otherwise, high pressure looks to remain in control right through Saturday (if current timing holds). Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend through the week, reaching about 15 degrees above average for daytime highs by Friday and Saturday. With the generally clear skies and light winds, overnight lows will be on the seasonably cool side, mainly in the upper 20s to 30s through the week. Overall a very pleasant and fair stretch of late fall weather looks to be in store.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions continue early this morning with occasional fluctuations up and down to VFR and IFR. There are also some scattered lake effect snow showers around, primarily impacting KITH and KBGM.

Morning snow showers will change to rain through the day from the lower to higher elevations. A mixture of lower MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs expected, especially within showers, and over the higher terrain. Restrictions are expected to last through the entire TAF period (at least through 06Z Sunday).

Outlook...

Sunday...Lingering scattered rain and snow showers at the Central NY terminals, mainly in the morning with associated restrictions possible.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.