textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted cloud cover early this morning as high level cirrus streams over the area. Frost is still possible, but it should remain rather patchy even in the advisory areas. Adjusted PoPs to better reflect model differences as the rain slowly moves in from southwest to northeast through the day on Saturday. Lowered expected high temperatures across our far eastern zones Sunday afternoon as lingering clouds, showers and a cold air damming regime remain in place here.

KEY MESSAGES

1) It will be cold with patchy frost early this morning, then partly sunny and seasonably mild this afternoon.

2) A cool, breezy and wet weekend looks likely. A short dry period is possible heading into Sunday afternoon for west-central portions of Northeast PA and Central NY. Chances for showers lingering into Memorial Day, but a warming trend begins.

3) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry, partly sunny and warmer Tuesday through Thursday next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered to broken high level cirrus clouds are lingering over the region early this morning, however there are some clear slots. Temperatures have fallen to near 40 degrees in the colder valley locations as of midnight, and should still slide into the low or mid- 30s by daybreak. The frost advisories remain unchanged, but overall it should be a fairly patchy frost. Temperatures look to warm up into the mid-60s to low 70s by this afternoon with filtered sunshine through increasing high clouds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure slides off to the north and east over New England late tonight into Saturday morning. A low pressure system and frontal boundary will be approaching from the upper Ohio Valley at the same time. Rain will begin to overspread the area from southwest to northeast, reaching the Wyoming Valley and perhaps Bradford county around or just before daybreak Saturday morning. There were model discrepancies on just how fast and efficiently the rain would be able to spread northeast with the dry low level air advecting into the region on the easterly flow. Took a consensus of the latest HRRR, RAP, 3km NAM and 12km NAM to give the best forecast timing for the rain moving in; also collaborated with surrounding offices to keep things consistent.The NBM PPI01 grids seemed to be struggling with the differences in the CAMs as it was rather splotchy and disjointed with the hourly PoPs through the day. The official forecast shows onset timing of around 5-7 AM from Scranton Wilkes- Barre northwest to Towanda, Corning and Hornell. The rain should reach Geneva, Ithaca, Binghamton and Monticello around 9-11 AM. The northeast progression really slows after this, with the rain potentially not reaching Syracuse until early afternoon, and Utica/Rome not until late afternoon. The breezy (10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph), cool easterly flow will keep temperatures locked in the upper 40s to low 50s for much of the area...except the I-90 corridor should reach the lower 60s where the rain holds off much longer. Southeast winds peak Saturday evening into Saturday night, between 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph along the hilltops possible. Rainfall totals Saturday into Sunday are expected to range from about 0.50 to 1.25 inches over the region.

Of note, the record low max temperature is 43 degrees at Binghamton (airport) set back on May 23rd 1963, so we likely will not be able to break that record. Meanwhile, Avoca's record low max temperature is 53 degrees set on May 23rd 1963, and our forecast currently calls for tying that record. Syracuse will not be close to their record low max temperature (45 degrees on 5/23/1963) as the forecast is for 61 degrees here.

Sunday features morning showers, which should move east with drier weather for the afternoon hours, under mostly cloudy skies. Some cold air damming signal remains over our far eastern Catskill zones where temperatures will struggle to reach 60. Further west, some warming takes place with perhaps a few breaks of intermittent sunshine and temperatures are forecast to reach into the 60s here.

The next fast moving front comes through Sunday night and Monday morning with showers likely. Once this feature passes by it may once again dry out Monday afternoon (but uncertainty remains in timing this far out). Ensemble model guidance is however in good agreement that despite the lingering clouds and scattered showers temperatures will see a big warm up Monday, reaching well into the 70s for most locations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

For Tuesday through Thursday next week a ridge begins to build over the Central US while an upper low develops over Quebec. While there will be surface high pressure in place, this will lead to the potential for spotty, passing showers dropping down from the north with systems in the vicinity of our region. Even so, conditions will be mostly dry during this period. Temperatures will continue the warming trend with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s each day and overnight lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the TAF period. There ceilings will start to lower from SW to NE early tomorrow morning, but should stay VFR until after 12Z.

Outlook:

Saturday through Saturday night...Widespread rain showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Lingering scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-017-018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055-057.