textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF and thunder chances into this evening. Minor adjustments to clouds and isolated shower chances on Wednesday. Increased wind gusts potential Friday night into Saturday behind the strong cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Strong frontal boundary to push through the region late Thursday and Friday.

2) Chilly start to the weekend with a warming trend early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

A weak cold front will slowly move south of the region today. As a result, clouds should build in from the north with spotty showers as well. Temperatures will have a wide range as well from the low 60's to 70's. High pressure then looks to build into the region tonight through Thursday with more seasonable temperatures.

A warm front is still modeled to move into the region Thursday night with enough lift and moisture to develop a fairly widespread round of showers. Influence from a LLJ may keep temperatures fairly steady or lead to slightly rising temperatures overnight. Any portion of the region that gets into the warm sector and has some clearing has the potential to see highs near 70 Friday afternoon. While locations not getting into the warm sector seeing more widespread coverage of showers and much cooler temperatures. Uncertainity is fairly high given a tight gradient of conditions is expected.

Another round of showers should then sweep through the region Friday afternoon and evening along the cold front. Will have to watch for any instability advection that could result in a few thunderstorms with gusty winds across NEPA extending northeastward. Total rainfall looks to range from 1/2 to 1 inch, not enough for any flooding issues.

Temperatures should drop sharply Friday night into the 30's. Clouds and wind should prevent frost formation. Lingering lake effect moisture could allow for the precipitation to end as a few snow flurries Saturday morning in CNY. Winds should crank up as well with a developing low pressure system tracking north of our region with a few gusts near 30 mph potentially.

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure then is modeled to build into the region this weekend into early next week. The high pressure will move into a location favorable to give our region a gradual warming trend early next week with highs getting into the 60's again Monday and Tuesday.

Uncertainity is present on how strong the winds will be Saturday night. Clear skies under the high pressure would favor fairly widespread frost with upper 20's and low 30's overnight. However, winds are currently modeled at 5-10 mph which would still be high enough to limit frost formation.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

conditions will remain primarily in the MVFR range as a lingering frontal boundary crosses the area and moisture increases ahead/along the front. A few brief periods of VFR may be possible with some breaks in the cloud cover, and potentially a few scattered showers will be also be possible for all terminals. AVP will likely be the only terminal to remain VFR through the 12z TAF period, but will brush close to MVFR CIGs towards the afternoon with the frontal boundary.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

Friday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions possible.

Saturday...Cooler air settles into the region with the potential for some early season snow showers.

Sunday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.