textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some light snow accumulation possible tonight in the higher elevations of the Catskills, otherwise no changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain exits Sunday morning and will be follow by dryer conditions Monday and most of Tuesday.

2) Upper level low tries to push into the region as soon as Wednesday night and continues through the remainder of the period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold and damp this afternoon and tonight with wave of low pressure passing over the area. Colder air aloft will move in tonight with the H700 low passing across Central NY and into the Catskills. Boundary layer temperatures will be borderline, but higher elevations of the Catskills could dip to near freezing and light snow accumulations up to an inch will be possible above 2000 feet.

Moisture will move out early tomorrow morning with drier conditions Sunday through the first part of the week. Warmer temperatures will also arrive on Monday as ridging builds in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next low pressure system has continued to trend slightly slower, with an increasing chance of another round of rain showers late in the day Tuesday or even Tuesday night.

Thereafter, the end of April and beginning of May is looking cool and unsettled. Models are in good agreement for a cold upper level low settling over the NE U.S. by the middle to end of next week. Expect cool, below average temperatures with rain and possibly even snow showers as April comes to an end and May begins on Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Rain continues through the late evening hours before gradually ending overnight. Low ceilings and occasionally reduced visibilities are expected with the rain. Due to saturated conditions and light winds, fog will then be possible at all terminals, though there remains uncertainty on the timing of fog and how low visibilities will be. Skies will then begin to scatter out around 12z or shortly after, so conditions are expected to return to VFR by 15z at all terminals. There are some guidance that keep clouds around longer, and if that does happen, then conditions will be slower to improve. Southeasterly winds become light and variable tonight. Despite winds becoming more northeasterly by Sunday afternoon, speeds will stay at 5 kts or less.

Outlook:

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR expected; fog possible early Monday morning.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions, mainly in the late afternoon and at night.

Wednesday through Thursday...Additional scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.