textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs, sky cover and temperatures today. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track with no significant changes for this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Upper level low will spin over the area this morning, gradually shifting to the east this afternoon. This will keep scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast.

2) Drier weather returns to the area Friday and Saturday as weak ridging and high pressure move overhead.

3) The weather pattern turns more active and wetter heading into the second half of the weekend. Expect a warming trend next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The mid and upper level low is centered near New York City early this morning, with ample mid level moisture evident on the latest water vapor loop. This feature will keep showers going early this morning, with the activity tapering off and becoming more isolated in nature toward daybreak. Skies look to remain mostly cloudy through the morning hours. Instability increases this afternoon, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area. These showers and storm will move nort-northwest to southeast this afternoon; with the highest PoPs over the Catskills of east-central NY. At the same time, some drier mid level air will work its way into the region, allow for breaks of sun by mid to late afternoon (outside of the shower and t'storm activity). This will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s areawide today, while it remain humid with dew points in the mid to upper 60s and pwats around 1.3 inches. MLCAPE values are expected to reach around 500 J/kg, but shear will be light, only around 20 kts. We can't rule out some brief locally heavy rainfall with the storms this afternoon, but overall severe weather is not expected today.

The rain showers end tonight and skies partially clear. Winds turn light as high pressure gradually builds in from the west. This will be a good setup to see valley fog development. Lows dip down into the mid-50s and low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Friday is looking generally dry as mid and upper level ridging builds over the region. A 1015mb surface high will also be in place to keep skies mostly sunny. There is a slight chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm to pop up over the Catskills where the slow departing trough will still hold some influence. Temperatures warm to above average levels, into the upper 70s to mid-80s, with generally comfortable humidity levels.

Dry weather continues over the area Friday night and most of Saturday with the ridge drifting eastward. Can't rule out a late day shower or storm over the Central southern tier or Finger Lakes as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Otherwise, skies are forecast to be partly sunny and temperatures a few degrees warmer than Friday; well into the 80s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By Sunday, the next deep trough, front and low pressure center will be moving through the area. Model consensus is good on the timing and position of these features. There will be ample moisture and instability over the region as this system approaches; pwats rise between 1.8 to nearly 2.0 inches along with surface dew points potentially in the lower 70s at times. It is too early for specific details on exactly how much instability will be present, as that will certainly depend on day time surface heating. There will be at least some risk for excessive, heavy rainfall as this system moves through. Current model guidance dries our area by Monday, with drier air filtering in from north to south behind the departing front. Beyond this, expect a warming trend for the middle of next week with chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms also in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Upper level low will finally start pulling out of the region today. Reduced vsbys and ceilings in rain showers will continue this morning into early afternoon and MVFR vsbys in light fog will also be possible this morning before gradually lifting to VFR late morning. Winds will remain steady out of the north/nw with occasional gusts 10 to 20 kt through the next 24 hours.

Outlook:

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Sunday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.