textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dewpoint and relative humidity were lowered for Wednesday afternoon and somewhat Thursday afternoon, along with a slight bump up in temperature compared to prior forecast. These adjustments are due to significant amount of dry air that will mix down during peak heating hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Clearing, calming, and cold conditions tonight, will be followed by moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next couple of days.

2) A cold front with limited moisture, will pass through with some showers later on Friday to temporarily dip temperatures Saturday, but much warmer conditions arrive by early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... It has been a blustery day as a cold Canadian air mass advects across the region, while picking up lake moisture to yield snow showers and flurries. Gusts have been frequently in the 25-40 mph range; this morning there were even a few gusts above 40 mph including 48 mph in Penn Yan. Winds have just started to diminish; high pressure will quickly move overhead this evening, allowing the lake response to cease in favor of a clearing sky and calming wind. Indeed the clouds have already dried up in the Wyoming Valley, and the clearing trend will work its way north. The incoming air mass is also remarkably dry, which will promote radiational cooling and thus we continue to favor the lowest end of guidance for forecast lows of mid teens to lower 20s by dawn. This is roughly 15 degrees below average yet still 8-10 degrees from daily records.

High pressure starts on top of us in the morning but shoves offshore by late Wednesday afternoon, placing us in a light southerly return flow. That, and abundant sunshine, will boost temperatures into the upper 40s-mid 50s. Models typically struggle to mix down low enough dewpoints during peak heating hours this time of year, when there is very dry air above the boundary layer. The forecast was adjusted accordingly, which will send relative humidity values into the 20-30 percent range. Our waterlogged soil could use all the help it can get for drying out. Cayuga Lake and Onondaga Lake still have their Flood Warnings with the persist water level hovering above flood stage for at least the next couple of days. The return flow increases a bit more Thursday, edging temperatures up another 5-10 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A frontal boundary looks to sag through the region Friday-Friday night, but with high pressure expected to be over the Southeastern U.S. blocking moisture-rich air coming up from the south. The front will trail from a distant low in the Canadian Maritime Provinces, and will be shallow in nature. So while showers are likely by Friday afternoon-evening especially in Central NY, this system looks to have limited moisture by the time it reaches our area. Forecast rain amounts are figured to be only one to two tenths of an inch northwest to very little southeast. With the status of our waterlogged lakes, the relatively low expectations of this front is good news.

The fairly weak front will temporarily dip temperatures from mainly 60s-near 70 Friday to upper 40s-upper 50s Saturday. Significant ridging with a deeper southwest flow early next week will then bring much warmer weather; 60s Sunday and widespread 70s next Monday-Tuesday. It would not be surprising to see a few spots approach 80 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

18Z Update... Initial lake-effect snow showers and clouds for the NY terminals will dry up quickly. KSYR-KRME will still have visibility restrictions through mid afternoon before the snow showers end, then those terminals join the remainder at VFR conditions all the way through 18Z Wednesday and beyond. West-northwest gusts of 20-30 knots in afternoon, will also quickly wane this evening, eventually light and variable as dry high pressure takes over.

Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR conditions.

Friday afternoon through Friday night...A front will dip into the region with a chance of rain showers and associated restrictions, especially the NY terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.