textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Turning much warmer today with highs rising into the 70s. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be around mainly in the morning. Generally dry and seasonable weather returns on Friday, before another slow moving frontal system arrives with periods of rain expected this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

The warming trend continues to be slow across northern portions of central New York heading toward the overnight. For the most part precipitation continues to be fairly light despite the bright banding showing up on radar. The reports of sleet mixing in are decreasing as we reach saturation as well.

Adjusted temperatures for evaporational cooling with the early evening update across the region with the mixed precipitation late this afternoon. Precipitation has fallen mainly in the form of rain and sleet but temperatures should continue to warm through the evening hours. Still potential for some stronger wind gusts tonight so the wind advisory continues.

An MCS continues to push eastward across western PA and western NY. The anvil with this complex is producing some lightning and very light rain out ahead of the convective line. Have added a chance for thunder across the western Southern Tier and the Finger Lakes region for this afternoon and evening. Cloud bases are quite high due to the low level dry air in place and there is some potential that portions of the western Southern Tier and into the Finger Lakes region may see some dry lightning strikes out of this anvil. Otherwise, looking at very light rain with some cracks of thunder possible this afternoon and evening.

Also, out ahead of this approaching warm front tonight, a very strong low level jet will punch into the region. Some of these winds will mix down to the surface this evening through tonight with the strongest gusts expected across the Finger Lakes Region. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Steuben, Yates, Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins, S. Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison counties from 5 PM today through 6 AM early Thursday morning.

As precipitation pushes into northern areas of our CWA and into the Catskills, there may be a few hours of wintry mix due to wet bulbing, as dew points remain 10s to low 20s this afternoon and evening. Very light snow accumulations will be possible before temperatures warm above freezing later tonight with warm air advection. Temperatures will rise overnight as the strong mid level warm front moves in from the west. Another short wave will come across the area tomorrow morning and there should be enough elevated instability for embedded thunder with showers through the morning hours. After a round of showers in the morning, things will dry out, but isolated to scattered showers may still pop up in the afternoon as a cold front approaches later in the day.

Skies look to remain mostly cloudy, but temperatures a few breaks of sun and warm southerly flow will send temperatures surging into the upper 60s and 70s across the Central NY and Northeast PA regions. Surface dew points rise into the mid-50s to lower 60s so it will even feel slightly humid out there.

Tomorrow night will also remain quite warm, with lows generally in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

325 PM Update...

After the passage of a frontal boundary, a building high pressure system off to the north will keep things seasonable on Friday in the low to upper 50s. As the front exits the area southward during the day Friday, lingering rain showers may stick around for areas in NE PA and the Southern Tier until Friday afternoon. The next system approaches from the southwest Saturday. A warm front pushes through Saturday morning, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall through the day. Current guidance shows precipitable water values between 1 to 1.5 inches, with a forecasted rainfall total between half an inch to up to an inch of rainfall across the area. There will be a short lull with intensity of rainfall as the main low center passes over the area Saturday evening, but as the cold front associated with this system sneaks up into the area, moderate rainfall intensity continues heading into Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

325 PM Update...

The long term period is relatively wet and slightly colder than normal. An overhead upper-level trough develops over the area through the weekend and into early next week, with multiple shortwaves bringing precipitation is likely. Temperatures take a cooling trend going into early next week as well, and there may be some mixed rain and snow showers mainly during the overnight hours as temperatures dip, but could happen in the daytime hours for the early work week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly dry conditions will prevail over the next 3-4 hours as showers are expected to move back in from the west after 10Z. However, ceilings are expected to remain MVFR/fuel-alt during this time. Despite a downsloping SE flow at AVP, ceilings have been gradually falling, and there this the potential for IFR cigs from prior to daybreak through the morning hours before winds become more south-southwesterly, but confidence is low, so this will continue to be monitored.

As showers move in, the rain can be heavy at times to lead to IFR visby at most terminals for a time. There is also the potential for thunder as well. Plenty of lightning is currently over the eastern Great Lakes, but there is uncertainty if they will survive moving into our area due to a lack of instability, so thunder was not included in this TAF set.

South-southwesterly LLWS will be in place at all terminals which is expected to ease by 15-16Z.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Periods of rain likely with associated restriction.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Restrictions from snow showers possible (Medium Confidence).

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ015>018- 022-023-025-036-044.