textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts for Northeast PA to the Southern Tier and Catskills was once again increased for Saturday night. Increased thunderstorm coverage for Sunday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers move in tonight with locally heavy rainfall.

2) After a return to dry and cooler weather Monday and Tuesday, warmer weather and scattered showers and thunderstorms returns by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm frontal boundary will push toward the region this afternoon and evening. This will result in increasing clouds, and eventually rain showers moving into the area. The majority of the area will likely be rain-free during the daytime on Saturday, but a few showers may sneak in west of I-81 during the afternoon.

The most concentrated period of rain showers will be Saturday night/early Sunday morning. PWATs will be around 1.7 inches and coupled with a decent LLJ, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The greatest threat for this will be across Northeast PA-Catskills. While widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, cannot rule out some localized flooding issues late Saturday night.

There will likely be a bit of a lull in the rainfall Sunday morning, before a cold front will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hi-res guidance is now showing a fair amount of destabilzation with 1,000-1,500 J/KG of surface CAPE and close to 1,000 J/KG of DCAPE. However, poor lapse rates look to keep the threat for severe thunderstorms more isolated with gusty winds as the main concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of the cold front, cooler air will move into the region, which will bring highs in the 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday. Would not be surprised if Monday ends up cloudier than forecasted given northwesterly flow. High pressure though will keep conditions dry during this period. Another system may bring some scattered showers and potentially some thunderstorms by the middle of next week, along with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Fog at ELM is expected to burn off quickly, with VFR conditions prevailing at all sites this morning and through the afternoon. Clouds will increase ahead of an approaching warm front as winds shift south. Isolated to scattered showers will spread across the region from southwest to northeast, reaching ELM by late afternoon/early evening. Showers and associated restrictions will develop at most other terminals later in the evening. Overnight, widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected at most sites, if not all.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday...Restriction possible as a frontal system moves through bringing rain showers to the region.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.