textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will start building over the area today, and will bring a stretch of warmer, drier weather.

2) The pattern will become active late in the week and into the weekend as rain returns and temperatures become more seasonable.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Current low stratus and foggy conditions will continue through the night, with these conditions clearing up around the late morning hours. Persistent northerly flow will keep some moisture around, and cloudy skies will likely linger well into the afternoon before drier air moves in from the north. Without the any rain expected today, and some breaks in the clouds through the morning, temperatures are expected to climb into the 60s across the region. Clearing skies overnight will lead to good radiational cooling and fog development. There is potential for fog to become widespread across the region.

A ridge builds into the region tomorrow. Southwesterly flow will advect in warmer air, helping push temperatures into the 70s and even 80s through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures will be more mild as well, only falling into the 50s and 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for rain across the region comes with a frontal boundary late in the week. This system approaches the region Thursday night and begins to slowly move through on Friday. The front eventually departs the region on Saturday with high pressure and cooler air filling in behind. The high pressure quickly slides off to the east, allowing for a low pressure system to move up into the Northeast on Sunday. Additional showers are expected with this system to round out the weekend. Unlike this week's Nor'easter, this low pressure system will be quicker to move through with potential for drier conditions to start next week.

With both of these systems, there are uncertainties. The arrival of the frontal system still varies by 6 to 12 hours between guidance. Models have also trended slightly slower with this system. While guidance have come into better agreement with the timing of Sunday's system, there is still uncertainty on the track and how it interacts with a low in Canada.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Plenty of low level moisture will bring low ceilings and some patchy fog this morning. As a result, widespread IFR-or-worse restrictions are expected, although restrictions may occasionally bounce between MVFR and IFR. Restrictions will gradually improve by the late morning, but lingering Fuel Alternate/MVFR ceilings will be possible into the afternoon. Finally, by late this afternoon, conditions will return to mainly VFR.

Fog and/or low stratus moves back in late tonight/early Wednesday morning, which will result in another round of restrictions.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog in the favorable areas, especially at KELM will be possible, which will likely result in restrictions.

Friday through Saturday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.