textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some adjustments to temperatures and shower chances for the middle and later half of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A heat wave is possible for the middle to end of the week.

2) A few showers are possible today, then scattered showers and thunderstorms return for the middle to end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures will be pleasant today behind the passage of a cold front. However, high pressure that moves over the region Monday and Tuesday gives way to a warm and moist southwesterly flow. Boundary layer temperatures are modeled to be on a fairly sharp increase heading into the middle of the week. Current values would suggest high temperatures in valley locations getting into the low 90's Wednesday through Friday. The increase in moisture will lead to a gradual increase with low temperatures with muggy readings for the middle and end of the week.

Our NBM guidance has demonstrated a nationwide warm bias so far this season and suspect that is the case for the upcoming week as well. Recent NBM runs have featured highs in the mid and upper 90's for portions of the area Wednesday through Friday which is warmer than the warmest ECMWF ensemble member. The NBM values would push most locations well into advisory criteria for the heat index values each day which is not expected at this time. Any thunderstorms would also trend temperatures downward as well in this timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A few showers are still possible today as an upper level low passes through the region. High pressure over our region should keep Monday and Tuesday dry. A trough of low pressure is modeled to move into the region Wednesday. Enough lift and instability should be present for the development of some showers and thunderstorms. Heights rise a bit on Thursday but there should still be enough lift for isolated to scattered activity. A more organized cold front then is modeled to move toward the area Friday and Saturday increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms again. Shear may end up too marginal for any strong to severe thunderstorms but it is still several days away with typical timing uncertainities with the various features.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

While mainly VFR conditions are present to start the TAF period as of 06Z, there are a few exceptions that result in a tricky forecast prior to 12Z. First, IFR ceilings have unexpectedly developed at KAVP. The expectation is that this will be short- lived and fluctuate between BKN (IFR) and SCT (VFR), and therefore included a two hour TEMPO from 06Z to 08Z for IFR ceilings there. There also continues to be a bit of uncertainty regarding KELM, as there will be a brief window of possible fog formation there. Continued the TEMPO group for 2SM BR for there, but just adjusted the timing of it slightly.

Otherwise, a MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt cloud deck is forecast to move in from the north and overspread Central NY by 09-12z this morning. These clouds will linger the longest at KSYR and KRME (likely until the late afternoon), but a return to VFR conditions is expected elsewhere by the early afternoon. All terminals will likely return to VFR by the early evening.

Outlook:

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.