textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered PoPs across the area through the early afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon and into this evening with the greatest severe threat occurring from 5 pm to 10 pm tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight, with the greatest risk for severe storms extending across the Finger Lakes Region and into the Mohawk Valley and Tug Hill Plateau region. Strong wind gusts, large hail and possibly a tornado will be the primary threats.

2) A dramatic pattern shift will occur over the weekend with a a round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. This will be followed by much colder weather early next week including snow showers for some parts of the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures across the area are climbing into the mid to upper 70s as of early afternoon with dew point readings into the low 60s. Further destabilization is expected ahead of an approaching short wave later this afternoon and evening, which will be the kicker for thunderstorm initiation as CAPE values climb to 1000-1500 J/kg. The SPC Convective Outlook continues to highlight a good portion of Central NY in the Slight Risk for severe storms. Any storms that develop early this afternoon will initially be discrete cells, but then will likely become more linear with time, especially as a surface boundary drops southeast across the area. The primary threats are likely hail and damaging winds. Any discrete cells that interact with the surface boundary may produce an isolated tornado. At this time, it does appear that this system will be progressive enough where flash flooding is not a major concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Above normal temperatures continue up to Saturday, but a rainy cold front in the evening will herald an abrupt pattern flip to much cooler weather for Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures will bump down some on Friday in the wake of the prior batch of thunderstorms, yet still above normal with highs of mid 60s to mid 70s. There could still be a few lingering showers early Friday, otherwise passing high pressure will provide for window of dry weather through at least midday Saturday.

An upper trough will dig into the Western Great Lakes Saturday, with deep southwest flow boosting temperatures well into the 70s across the area. This will occur ahead of a very well-marked front trailing from strong Canadian low pressure. A narrow yet significant ribbon of moisture will pool all the way up from the Western Gulf, causing rain and embedded thunder to sweep across our region late Saturday through Saturday night.

Abruptly colder weather will be ushered in during the second half of the weekend. Temperatures Sunday will initially range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, yet under strong cold air advection with gusty winds and scattered showers. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 Sunday night, with any lingering rain showers changing to snow showers/flurries. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s, and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest; 20s areawide. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions this afternoon will give way to restrictions late in the day as a frontal boundary moves into the region. Thunderstorms are expected, with MVFR ceilings and localized IFR visibilities, especially across RME/SYR/ITH. The primary window for impacts is 21Z to 02Z. AVP is expected to see a short window of rain showers during this time. Following the showers, ceilings may lower to IFR overnight at RME/SYR/ITH/BGM. Gusty southwest winds will gradually diminish this evening and shift northeast behind the front.

Outlook:

Thursday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers.

Sunday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Tuesday...High pressure builds into the region with VFR conditions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.