textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast rainfall totals for Saturday continue to increase. Flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers are expected to move into the area on Saturday perhaps mixing with some wet snow at the highest elevations of the Poconos and Catskills Saturday night.

2) Dry and mild weather is expected on Monday. Several systems will move through next week with additional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The warmest temperatures for most of the region look to occur before sunrise. Widespread rain showers will develop by sunrise across the regions moisture is lifted along a warm front to our south. This will lead to evaporational and dynamical cooling keeping temperatures steady in the 40's. Temperatures at the highest peaks in the Western Catskills and NEPA Locations near and the NY Thruway look to be on the northern edge of the showers allowing temperatures to be a few degrees warmer.

Model QPF continues to trend higher as well. Mesoscale models Indicate a fairly robust area of more than an inch of rainfall now from the Finger Lakes into the Southern Tier and NEPA. Eventhough forecasted totals have increased, flooding is not expected. Conditions look to be fairly slow to clear out on Sunday. With more sunshine, temperatures should trend warmer.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Monday still looks like a pleasant day across the region with high pressure in control. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the 60s. The next low pressure system has continued to trend slightly slower, with an increasing chance of another round of rain showers starting late in the day Tuesday or even Tuesday night. Unsettled weather will likely continue Wednesday and perhaps through the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rain will move in this morning and continue through tonight, with MVFR to IFR restrictions developing. While conditions have remained VFR so far this morning, steadier showers will bring MVFR to locally IFR visibilities first, followed by lowering ceilings late morning into the afternoon. Winds will increase from the southeast by mid to late mornining, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots expected in the afternoon.

Outlook:

Saturday night...Rain showers and associated restrictions are expected to continue as a low pressure system passes through. IFR or lower likely at ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP at times.

Sunday Morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions, mainly in the afternoon and at night.

Wednesday...Additional scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.