textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes made from the NBM this forecast cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain comes to an end this morning with clearing skies and warm temperatures this afternoon and evening.

2) Temperatures remain warm through mid week, then a cold front pushes through the region with showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday across the Southern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania. In the wake of the front, cooler temperatures are forecast for the end of the week and into the weekend under dry NW flow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Shortwave moves east of the region by mid morning today and then drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the day. Should see some sunshine this afternoon and this will help send temperatures into the 70s. High pressure centered overhead tonight will likely lead to widespread fog through early Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Mid and upper level ridging builds in Tuesday and persists into Wednesday. This will push temperatures back above average with highs in the low 80s both days. However, a cold front pushes through late Wednesday and will have the potential to kick off some showers and thunderstorms across the Twin Tiers. In the wake of the front, temperatures will be much cooler on Thursday with highs back down into the 60s to low 70s.

For the end of the week, models continue to show an Omega block setting up, with a west and east coast trough and a central U.S. ridge extending well north into Canada. This pattern will remain in play through the end of the week and into next weekend. Trends have continued to show cold air descending down the eastern edge of the ridge into the Northeast U.S. There continues to be a persistent signal for below freezing temperatures at 850 mb and if this occurs, highs may be limited to the low 50s, however, if this cooler air drifts a bit further east, then upper 60s to low 70s will still be possible next weekend. Due to the uncertainty and being this is towards the end of the forecast period, decided to just stick with the NBM highs for now. Chances of precipitation will be limited with any meaningful moisture being kept to the south of the region.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A mix of mainly MVFR/Fuel-alt restrictions is expected to persist over the next several hours with intermittent IFR conditions, mainly with regards to visby as rain continues to move through. As the rain comes to an end this morning from west to east generally between 10Z-13Z, a period of lower ceilings is expected to move in in its wake which is just moving into far western NY at this hour. Confidence in this lower cloud deck is low to medium as guidance is too aggressive with ceiling restrictions early this morning at nearly all terminals.

VFR conditions are expected to make a return by mid to late afternoon across the area as high pressure begins to build in this evening. Given the recent rainfall, some patchy low clouds/fog is possible after the end of the 06Z TAF period, so this will be monitored.

Outlook:

Late Monday Night through early Tuesday morning...Patchy fog with associated restrictions possible.

Late Tuesday morning through Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.