textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds and gusts were increased Thursday into Friday as a cold front passes through the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will continue to trend warmer today as high pressure will keep conditions dry.

2) A low pressure system will pass to the north tonight and will bring some rain showers overnight. A cold front then sweeps through late Thursday into Friday, bringing widespread precipitation and a drop in temperatures heading into the weekend.

3) High pressure returns over the weekend as temperatures become more seasonal early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will remain over the region today as temperatures continue to trend warmer. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s as flow becomes more southwesterly this afternoon and advects warmer air into the region. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy thanks to the presence of high clouds. A couple of pop up showers cannot be ruled out this evening across north-central NY as a weak wave passes through.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A broad low pressure system will pass just north of the region overnight. Despite being north, scattered showers are expected to develop late tonight and continue into early Thursday morning. Temperatures will remain mild, only falling into the 40s. Being in the warm sector of this system, temperatures then climb into the 60s on Thursday. While there will be dry periods in the morning, there will be potential for scattered showers in the afternoon as an upper trough digs over the Northeast. Conditions look to be stable during this time, so thunderstorms are not expected with this first round of showers.

The main event will be when a cold front drops in late in the day on Thursday. This front will bring widespread rain to the region Thursday night into Friday morning. The NAM is showing elevated instability out ahead of this front along with strong shear. Given the first round of showers and cloudy skies expected, the instability is likely overdone but if correct, there would be potential for hail with any thunderstorms along with gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall. In comparison, the GFS has no instability over the region. While there may be thunderstorms along the front, severe storms are looking unlikely at this time, especially with the later timing. SPC seems to agree as the General Thunder area extends into the region while the severe risk is focused on portions of the Midwest. Outside of any thunderstorm potential, winds will increase as the front approaches. NBM guidance seemed too low, especially in the Finger Lakes region, so winds and gusts were bumped up above guidance for Thursday through Friday morning.

A much colder airmass will fill in behind the front as it exits the region early Friday. As precipitation ends behind the front, there may be a brief period of snow showers or wintry mix that could result in a light dusting of snow for Central NY. Temperatures then fall back into the 30s and 40s for daytime highs heading into the weekend. Low temps in the teens are expected Friday night. Winds will remain breezy behind the front leading to blustery conditions where wind chills will be a bit lower than the actual temperatures. Single digit wind chills will be possible Friday night/early Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure will return this weekend though a weak system may bring some light snow showers to portions of Central NY on Saturday. West-northwesterly flow may lead to localized lake enhancement as well. Otherwise, conditions will be drying out and temperatures will begin to trend warmer on Sunday. Early next week remains somewhat uncertain as some models bring a system through on Monday while others stay dry until around midweek. Temperatures will return closer to normal to start the work week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the entire 12z TAF package period. A LLJ develops around 03z tonight; LLWS has been added towards the end of this TAF package.

Outlook:

Wednesday Night...A chance of rain and possible minor restrictions for the NY terminals.

Thursday...Again mostly VFR morning to at least midday, then a rainy cold front will drop northwest to southeast through the region Thursday afternoon-evening with developing restrictions. Snow may mix in before precipitation ends late Thursday night.

Friday morning...Lingering ceiling restriction possible early, but improving conditions.

Midday Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.