textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased snow totals across most of NE PA and areas east of I-81 in NY. Winter Weather Advisories expanded westward into more of NE PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Period of snow into this afternoon, mainly east of I-81.

2) Cold temperatures and wind chills centered on Tuesday. Lake Effect snow mainly west of the area.

3) Another system around Thursday with snow showers possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Hi-res model guidance has come into better agreement regarding some snow today. A fairly strong mid- level disturbance moves northeast into eastern portions of our region this morning. Enough moisture and lift looks present to develop an area of snow along and east of I-81 this morning that shifts east this afternoon. FGEN forcing is fairly noteworthy so it would not be surprising to see some banding and/or moderate rates for a time. Model QPF has trended higher and did bump up snow ratios a touch as well. This gets most of NE PA into Delaware and Sullivan NY into the 2-5 inch range for snowfall totals. With that said, expanded the winter weather advisory a bit.

Light snow has been ongoing across Oneida county, Terrain should help to lift some additional moisture and bring a few more inches of snow today. For the entire region, we do have the potential for a few snow showers tonight as a cold front passes through the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A much colder airmass will move into the region early next week after the passage of several cold fronts. Quite a bit of temperature difference should aid to get the lake effect snow going in full force for most of Monday through Wednesday. However, the mean flow for this event looks to be southwesterly which favors areas west of our region. A window though of more westerly flow is possible late Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a round of some snow showers. The environment is favorable for a few snow squalls to form Monday with the exception of moisture. This potential will be monitored as well. Highs Tuesday should not get out of the teens with wind chills below zero.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another cold frontal boundary looks to move through the area Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture return ahead of this feature may be a bit more potent. However, still looking at some snow showers followed by some lake effect snow showers currently.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Ceilings will continue to lower through the morning. Snow showers may struggle to develop for ELM-BGM-ITH, and restrictions may not fall to IFR with passing showers. Additionally, conditions improve for the majority of terminals earlier in the afternoon than the previous package.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers.

Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially across Central NY.

Wednesday...An approaching system keeps the chance of snow showers around and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ040-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ057-062.