textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track with no major changes during this forecast cycle. The low pressure system moving into east coast at the end of the week continues to trend south of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A clipper system brings snow to the region tonight and through the day today. Lake effect snow develops behind a cold front pushing through this evening, targeting areas along and north of the Mohawk Valley.

2) Widely varying temperatures this weekend with warm conditions Saturday, followed by below average temperatures for Sunday and the start of Meteorological Spring.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A shortwave trough will move into the region tonight, driving the weather into Thursday. A low pressure system centered over the northern Great Lakes will track to the ENE, pushing a warm front through the area tonight through the morning hours. WAA snow has pushed into the Finger Lakes and will continue to track east as the night progresses. Temps are in the teens ahead of the warm front, climbing to the low to mid 20s behind it. High dewpoint depressions will decreased as the front moves through, but initial radar returns will be mostly virga until the boundary layer moistens. Radar shows snow stretching back to eastern Ohio and it looks like most of this snow will be through the area by mid morning. Snowfall amounts have slightly gone down, but about 1-3 inches is still expected across much of the area through the morning hours. The higher end of this range will be along upslope areas of the eastern Finger Lakes and to the east.

Temperatures will to warm into the 30s as the morning progresses with continued SW flow across the region. By early to mid afternoon, mid to upper 30s are expected with valleys of the Southern Tier and NEPA reaching the 40s. The trough axis will push through the area this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. WAA this afternoon will produce CAPE values across the area in the 50-100j/kg range, especially along and north of the Southern Tier. This CAPE combined with the aforementioned cold front and trough axis will kick off scattered convective snow showers this afternoon into the early evening. Luckily the synoptic winds look to be light so widespread gusty winds are not expected, but localized gusty winds will be possible in some of the stronger convective snow showers. Model soundings show some dry air at the surface that should allow for temps to quickly cool as precip evaporates and moistens the boundary layer, leading to most of the precip that hits the ground to be in the form of snow pellets or snow. Accumulations in the afternoon are expected to be limited given the warmer ground temps and the late Feb sun angle melting most of what falls. The best chance for accumulating snow will be over N Oneida where temps will hover just above freezing.

Behind the cold front, westerly flow will induce lake effect snow showers off Lake Ontario in the evening that will persist into Thursday across the Mohawk Valley and north into the Tug Hill region. The 3 different snow modes mentioned previously will produce 4 to 8 inches across N Oneida County through Thursday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for N Oneida county until 7am Thurs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

All of our major models continue to advertise a strong high building into the area on Thursday, keeping a developing low pressure system south of the area. This will keep any measurable precipitation with this system well south of the region with just a small chance for a flurry into the Poconos.

High pressure to the east of us and a trough to the west will funnel warm air into the region for the end of the week. Friday should see temps in the low to mid 40s with Saturday about 5 degrees higher. This is not expected to last long as a strong cold front will dive into the area Sat afternoon/evening. Lows should fall into the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday night, and not recover much during the day Sunday with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 20s. The cold air might not creep all the way down to the Wyoming Valley, so temps there may climb back into the mid 30s. The return of really cold air comes Sunday night with widespread lows in the single digits and N Oneida possibly falling below 0.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Snow showers and IFR conditions have pushed east of all terminals except for RME, where these conditions should last until around 13z. MVFR ceilings are expected across much of CNY through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. AVP should lift to VFR by mid morning.

Convective snow showers are expected to develop this afternoon as the axis of the trough bringing snow this morning moves through the area and a cold front approaches from the west. Best chance for these snow showers and IFR restrictions looks to be at RME and SYR. Snow chances extend into CNY and may impact ELM/ITH/BGM, with moderate confidence for IFR restrictions as these showers will be more scattered. Timing of the showers is also somewhat unsure as model guidance is currently showing onset of snow differing by a couple of hours. AVP should remain VFR and out of the snow.

Lake effect snow will develop this evening into the overnight for SYR and RME. Currently MVFR conditions are forecast as IFR conditions will be dependent on where the band sets and confidence in this is not high enough to include IFR in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday Night - Thursday morning...Mainly VFR; there can be some scattered lake effect snow showers around SYR/RME. Confidence moderate.

Thursday afternoon and night...Scattered lake effect MVFR clouds may persist, mainly around RME and SYR. Confidence moderate.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Confidence moderate to high.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as cold front moves through the region with snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009.