textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures tonight a few degrees, but no other significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions will be warm and dry through the work week with surface high pressure in place.

2) A frontal system will bring the next chance for rain this weekend, though temperatures will remain mild through the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure at the surface has now overspread the region, with partly cloudy skies across the entire forecast area this afternoon. The upper level trough that was overhead has pushed to our southeast and is now being replaced with upper level ridging. The ridge will continue to build over the northeast U.S through the end of the week. Finally, the area will be in store for warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions. Southwest return flow will also bring up humidity late in the week, and high temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 80s by Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for widespread rain will come this weekend, as a frontal system approaches the region. This front is forecast to drop down out of Canada on Saturday and slowly move through the region throughout the weekend. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing and speed of this system. If the system stalls out, then rain showers will likely continue into early next week as well. The airmass out ahead of this system will be warm and humid when compared to what we have been seeing so far this summer, so there will be moisture to work with. If the front does get hung up, then portions of the area could pick up moderate to heavy rainfall from Saturday through Monday. Forecast PWATs are about average for this time of year, ranging from 1.25 to 1.75 inches, which is below one standard deviation of normal. Since the antecedent conditions over the last week have been dry, at this time, the risk for flooding appears low, even if the front stalls over the region. The only concern at this point in time will be when the front initially drops into the region, because PWATs will be highest at this time and there will be some instability to work with as well, so thunderstorms will be likely. Higher rainfall rates in slow moving thunderstorms could produce localized flash flooding if they train over the same area for long enough of a period.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with lighter winds settling in overnight. Lingering high clouds and dry conditions should keep fog from developing at terminals tonight. Northwest winds return tomorrow afternoon, with gusts under 15 knots.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and storms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.