textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted temperatures for today as the cold front is expected to move through the area in the late morning to early afternoon timeframe.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will move through the area around the late morning to early afternoon timeframe, and is expected to bring strong to severe storms this afternoon.

2) The weekend will be cooler, but temperatures will remain above normal, with another chance for strong to severe weather on Sunday. A broad upper level trough will bring cooler, more normal temperatures to start next week with a few periods of light rain possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today will be very warm and humid, similar to yesterday, but a cold front will move into the area in the late morning to early afternoon hours, which will limit heating potential across the a good portion of the area. There may be a brief period of upper 80s before the cold front moves through and drops temps back into the low 80s. Even with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices will climb back into the 90s, but confidence is not high enough to issue a Heat Advisory as the timing and speed of the cold front moving through will impact the heating potential.

With a risk of strong to severe storms still possible today, since the timing of the front has been faster, the arrival of the front will be misplaced with the main area of stronger 0-6 km bulk shear, which would advect in from the west later in the day. Although the faster front mitigates heating potential, there is still a pocket of moderate to strong instability, with CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. Given these parameters, strong to severe clusters of storms are possible as the cold front moves through the area, with the main threat being strong to damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After the passage of today's cold front, drier and cooler air will move in with highs in the low to mid 80s on Saturday with dewpoints in the 50s. A ridge on Sunday will push temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s before another cold front pushes through during the afternoon hours that should initiate scattered showers and storms across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms could be severe.

Near normal temperatures will return to start next week as a broad trough sits over the northern portion of the country. This will bring a period of beautiful weather with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain returns by mid week as the trough axis swings through the eastern US.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

There is potential for lower ceilings and fog overnight. Confidence is highest at ELM, BGM and RME, though fog will be possible at all terminals given the added moisture from the recent rainfall. The uncertainty is with the sky cover as if skies do not clear out, then fog may not develop or will be slower to develop. Lingering low ceilings will be possible after 12z though conditions should return to VFR prior to 18z. There is another line of showers and storms expected tomorrow afternoon, there is uncertainty with timing and coverage.

Calm winds are expected tonight. West to northwest winds will gradually pick up throughout the morning. Peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts are expected during the afternoon. Like today, winds could be strong within showers and storms that pass over terminals.

Outlook:

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; fog and restrictions late overnight.

Saturday...Mainly VFR

Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; early morning fog and restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Low chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.