textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

The weather pattern will remain active this week, with several clipper systems bringing chances for light snow. Temperatures will be mostly below normal through next weekend, with only a brief period to near normal conditions on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Canadian high pressure builds in from the west today. Strong cold air advection with northerly flow will keep temperatures well below normal today. Tonight will be the coldest of the week, as the center of the surface high sits overhead. Radiational cooling, combined with the already cold airmass, will allow temps to fall rapidly overnight. By early Tuesday morning, many of us will wake up to temperatures near zero and with a few spots coming in below zero. Luckily the winds will be mostly calm but they are expected to pick up a little bit before sunrise, which would push windchills as low as 5 to 10 below zero for a brief period Tuesday morning.

A weak short wave will push across the region on Tuesday and have increased PoPs above NBM as this wave may kick off light snow showers during the afternoon. Accumulations will be no more than a coating to a half inch across the Southern Tier, but possibly an inch or more across and north of the I90 Corridor.

Also, starting Tuesday at 18Z, decided to bump up winds over the NBM solution. Winds will increase out of the south/southwest through Tuesday afternoon. Gusts could be over 25 to 30 mph across portions of the Finger Lakes. After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will increase into the mid 20s by afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

There has been little change in the models since the 12Z cycle yesterday, so kept the bulk of this discussion the same with this update.

A potent clipper system moves into the area on Wednesday. A surface low will develop over the Great Lakes Tuesday night and the center of the low will track north of our CWA across Ontario on Wednesday. Precip will move in on Wed morning and likely start as snow, then as temperatures warm through the day, a change to an elevation based rain/snow mix is expected as afternoon highs climb into the mid to upper 30s for most of the area. A change back to all snow will return during the evening as a cold front moves through the area from the NW. Lake effect snow showers will remain during the overnight hours across CNY.

Northern Oneida county is expected to remain cold enough for mostly all snow to continue to fall through the day on Wednesday, with lake enhanced showers remaining through the overnight hours. The SW flow that is expected to be dominant through the day will provide upslope lift into the area that will help enhance snowfall chances. Currently, 3-7 inches is forecast to fall over this area through Wed evening, with more possible during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, this event looks like higher elevations may say 2-4 inches, while valley locations see a coating to 2 inches. We will be monitoring how this develops early this week, as a few winter weather advisories may be needed in some locations.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Our weather pattern will remain pretty consistent through next weekend.

On Thursday, lake effect snow showers should stick around the area with -12 to -15C 850mb temps flowing over Lake Ontario. The wind field looks to veer with height, which would keep showers more cellular than banded across areas north of the Southern Tier. After Thursday, models show potential for another clipper system on Saturday, but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the track of this one. Again, any system next weekend will likely be followed by more arctic air and lake effect snow.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

SYR and ITH will see some lake effect snow showers early this morning with brief restrictions possible. High pressure builds into the area today and this will quickly bring an end to lake effect snow showers later this morning. Likely that VFR conditions will take hold by 12Z at the latest.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR in the morning to early afternoon hours. Then, restrictions possible in scattered snow showers late afternoon, evening and overnight.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system approaches the region with snow and rain showers.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions possible with snow showers possible in the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.