textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered several degrees in the normally colder valleys early this morning, with lows expected to be well down into the 30s. Temperatures are trending slightly warmer today, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s areawide. Tuesday will be dry in the morning before a narrow band of light rain and sprinkles heads east into the afternoon, PoPs are only in the slight chance to chance category east of I-81, where it is questionable if measurable rainfall will occur. Wednesday's temperatures are trending a few degrees warmer as most model guidance keeps it dry in the morning and even early afternoon hours for eastern portions of the area. Rainfall amounts around 1 inch are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will be directly overhead today bringing chilly early morning lows, areas of frost and valley fog. Dry, mild and quiet weather will remain through at least Tuesday morning.

2) A front approaches the area Tuesday, but with the dry air in place it will be tough for light rain showers to push east of I-81. The next low pressure center brings better chances for a wetting, soaking rainfall Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Much cooler weather moves into the region Thursday through the end of next weekend as an upper level low spins overhead.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clear and cold conditions early this morning with efficient radiational cooling. Areas of fog and frost will be likely in the river and creek valleys through 8-9 AM. Fog burns off by the mid morning hours and then mostly sunny skies are expected with high pressure overhead into this afternoon.

Only changes from NBM were to lower dewpoints and slightly increase temperatures this afternoon and again on Tuesday. Min RH values are likely to dip into the low 30s percent and possibly below 30% in some areas, but due to recent rainfall and light winds today there are no fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

South winds increase Tuesday morning between 8-20 mph with a few higher gusts out ahead the next incoming front. Forecast soundings are showing very dry air in place over Central NY and this will be tough for incoming moisture to penetrate. The frontal boundary pushes in from the west Tuesday afternoon, and mid level clouds increase from west to east by midday. Showers are likely to reach into the Finger Lakes Region, but not sure if any measurable moisture is going to make it east of I-81. There may just be a short period of some light showers or sprinkles. Tuesday will be another seasonably warm day, with the south wind boosting temperatures into the low to mid-60s.

Another low pressure will push in from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This system will have much more moisture to work with and widespread rain showers are expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon or early evening, then continue well into Wednesday night. Behind the departing low Wednesday night, a cold front pushes through. An upper level trough/low will then settle over the region and possibly remain there right through next weekend. This time period will feature shortwaves and disturbances rotating through the area at different times with cool and unsettled conditions. It won't be raining or precipitating the entire time, but each day will feature chances of isolated to scattered showers with partly to mostly cloudy conditions. 850mb temperatures are forecast to range from -2 to -6C this entire timeframe and a few snow showers will also be possible, especially across higher elevations. Frost and Freeze headlines start for portions of the area on May 1st and unfortunately the first few days of May could see overnight lows into the low to mid 30s. We will need to watch the winds and cloud cover overnight to see if it will favor frost formation.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

With the exception of fog early Monday morning, conditions will be VFR for most of the TAF period. Fog is expected at the Central NY terminals late tonight/early morning though confidence is highest at ELM, ITH, and SYR based on reaching their crossover temps. Confidence is lower at RME and BGM, though model soundings do show a low-level inversion right at the surface for BGM that would certainly favor fog. IFR to LIFR visibilities are expected though there is some uncertainty on onset timing. Fog should clear out by 12 to 13z Monday morning and will be followed by clear to mostly clear skies. Winds will become calm tonight and remain calm through at least Monday evening.

Outlook:

Monday night...Mainly VFR expected; low-level wind shear and fog possible early Monday morning.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions, mainly in the late afternoon and at night.

Wednesday through Friday...Additional scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.