textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and breezy conditions expected for today and tomorrow, with light lake effect rain showers returning for northern Central NY going into the evening hours later today.

2) Widespread rain is possible starting overnight Wednesday. We're continuing to monitor the potential for a stronger system later this week into next weekend, but at this time, impacts from this system are minimal in our area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak ridge of high pressure will start to build in overnight with much improved conditions for today, decreasing clouds across much of the area, except for possibly the NYS Thruway corridor on northward, where clouds from lake effect moisture may persist. Highs are expected to warm up in the upper 50s to low 60s for most of the region. Wednesday should remain mostly dry, but an incoming clipper system could start spreading rain showers into the region by Wednesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern will become more active for the end of the week and into the weekend. We're seeing agreement in model guidance that shows large upper trough settles over the Northeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. However, some model guidance tries to develop low pressure off the southern coast of New England or Long Island, with some outliers having the center low off the coast more. There remains quite a bit of spread on where/if this system will develop and track, as timing and strength remains inconsistent. What does appear more likely at this time is our region will be at least under the influence of an upper level trough/low and cooler temperatures are likely for the end of the week and this weekend. As for potential snowfall, boundary layer temperatures at this time appear fairly marginal, with the best chance for any snow accumulations to occur during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and most likely in the higher elevation areas.

This upper level low could persist through the weekend and into the first part of next week. This would keep conditions cool and unsettled under northwest flow, with lake effect rain/snow showers possible.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Guidance handled the ceilings quite well with all terminals improving to VFR prior to 12z. Some MVFR ceilings will still be possible at RME for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Some lake effect rain showers may redevelop later today and tonight. These would mainly impact RME and SYR. While restrictions are not expected with these showers, it would not be surprising if there ended up being brief MVFR ceilings. Westerly to northwesterly winds will begin to pick up this morning with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts and peak gusts between 20 and 30 kts. Winds will become calmer tonight though remain breezy with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.