textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Similar to the previous update, added a small chance for pop-up storms for the Finger Lakes and northern Central NY for this afternoon. Additionally, continued the trend to increase wind gusts for the incoming system Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues today with temperatures around average. A few pop-up storms possible for the Finger Lakes and northern Central NY this afternoon.

2) An upper level trough will bring rounds of showers and storms tomorrow through the end of the week. The best chance for showers and storms will be on Thursday, along with breezy conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Relatively quiet weather is expected today with partly sunny skies as high pressure lingers south east of the region. As the day progresses a weak shortwave approaches the region from the west. This may trigger a few isolated afternoon showers across the Finger Lakes and portion of north central NY while most locations remain dry. Westerly winds gradually becomes southwesterly through the afternoon, helping temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s. Tonight remains cool, with lows falling into the low to mid 50s. Clouds gradually increase overnight ahead of the next approaching system.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Attention then shifts to an upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes. This feature and an accompanying warm front arrive early Wednesday morning, brining increasing chances for scattered showers from morning into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are also possible, through severe weather is not expected. SPC has the region under general thunder for tomorrow afternoon.

A second upper level trough quickly follows from the west, bringing another frontal system to the region. Showers associated with the warm front move through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, followed by a cold front crossing the area in the afternoon/evening hours. Between these features there is potential for a lull in shower activity that may help increase instability ahead of the frontal passage. SPC has much of the region in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with the highest risk across the western Catskills and northeast PA. Forecast soundings indicate modest instability with CAPE values generally limited to a few hundred J/Kg and weak midlevel lapse rates. However, the strongest parameter is shear, suggesting damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard with any strong convection. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday afternoon.

In addition to showers and thunderstorms, a tightening pressure gradient around the deepening low will results in gusty winds across the region during the mornings and afternoon hours, Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible and would be locally higher across areas of complex terrain. Winds diminish Thursday night as cooler air filters in behind the front, with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 50s. Multiple shortwaves from the aforementioned upper level trough will continue to push into our area through the rest of the week, and heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the overnight hours. A trough of low pressure moving in from the west will butt up against the ridge departing to the east, keeping winds mostly active through the night. These active low level winds should be strong enough to prevent fog from forming and keep conditions VFR.

Guidance is showing rain showers moving into the area tomorrow, but the timing of this still remains uncertain with some showing rain moving through during the mid morning, while others have it developing during the early afternoon hours. Currently, it looks like BGM/SYR/RME have the best chance for mid to late morning showers, but if the showers develop a little earlier, we could see them over ELM and ITH as well. Restrictions are not expected at this time.

Outlook:

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Showers with restrictions likely Wednesday night. Low level wind shear also likely Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night... Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms likely. Very breezy, southwest winds become westerly. Timing still uncertain with restrictions and wind shifts.

Friday through Saturday...Possible intermittent restrictions from scattered showers; breezy with westerly wind gusts each afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.