textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Steady light rain moves in from the southeast Saturday afternoon associated with the Nor'Easter off the coast. The slow-moving low pressure will toss a broad area of rain over northeast PA and central NY on Sunday. Gusty winds will accompany the rain this weekend.

2) High pressure builds in Tuesday and Wednesday with quiet weather before the active pattern returns later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Deepening area of low pressure off the coast will combine with a surface high pressure over the Great Lakes to produce increasing northeast winds over central NY and northeast PA beginning later tonight and continuing through the weekend. This Nor'Easter, currently 300 miles east of Norfolk, VA, is expected to take a meandering track to the north on Saturday and hug the NJ coast Sunday before moving northeastward across New England on Monday.

The east/west position of the track of the low has been a challenge for the model guidance the past several days, but looking at the trends of the ensemble members using a Cluster Analysis indicates that a track closer to the coast is expected with high certainty. The majority of the 12Z model guidance arriving this morning is supporting this and the result is an area of widespread rain even farther west and inland than previously anticipated.

The 13Z NBM probabilistic/long-term guidance, which includes the 00Z ensemble suite, produces a realistic solution with a band of light rain lifting in from the southeast on Saturday afternoon and then dissipating in the evening and early overnight hours as a fairly deep layer of dry air gets entrained into a portion of the Nor'Easter over the interior Northeast.

The bulk of the rain for central NY and ne PA is expected to fall on Sunday as the system remains baroclinic and an embedded short wave rotates around the northern edge of the low through New England into NY and PA, bringing with it a solid batch of rain and winds. Probabilities for a quarter of an inch of rain on Sunday support this amount over almost the entire forecast area, while prob of greater than a half inch of rain is generally focused in the Catskills and much of northeast PA. The heaviest amounts will likely be in the Poconos and higher elevations of the Catskills, where up to an inch is possible. There continues to be hints of some decent shadowing of rain on the western side of the Catskills.

Meanwhile, wind gusts should top out around 20 to 30 mph for most of the populated areas of central NY and ne PA, but some of the higher elevations could see occasional 30 to 40 mph wind gusts through the weekend.

The event winds down later on Monday/Mon night as the low picks up speed and lifts to the northeast. Rain will come to an end Monday night and winds will subside.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A weak ridge of high pressure builds in across the Northeast US Tuesday and Wednesday, which will cause large scale suppression and usher in a gradually drying air mass. Skies should clear out Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday. A warmer air mass moving in combined with plenty of sun on Wed will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s.

There does appear to be another open short wave that attempts to move in from the west Thu or Friday, but the timing and placement of the boundary is still in question. If the wave holds back to the west, temperatures could climb again into the 70s. However if more clouds and rain move in quicker, temperatures could be substantially cooler.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Saturday). That being said, conditions are somewhat favorable for early fog once again at KELM, which will likely result in IFR-or-worse visby restrictions. However, this isn't as certain as the past two nights due to the fact that winds just above the surface will be on the gusty side. This could result in the fog being shallow and not as dense as the past two nights. Any fog at KELM will lift by 14Z, resulting in a return to VFR conditions.

Somewhat breezy northerly winds (occasional gusts up to 18kts) this afternoon will become lighter at 5-10kts tonight. Winds will quickly pick back up after daybreak on Saturday due to a Nor'Easter off the coast. This will result in 20-25kt gusts Saturday at KAVP, and 15-20kt gusts elsewhere.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Light rain and associated restrictions possible at KAVP. Otherwise, remaining mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday...Rain and associated restrictions possible, especially on Sunday.

Monday...Some lingering morning restrictions possible with light rain showers, then becoming mainly VFR.

Monday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.