textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snow totals have increased across northern Onondaga County tonight into Wednesday with the next lake effect snow band expected to drop south, especially over NW Onondaga. If confidence increases regarding the inland extent of this band, a short fused winter weather advisory may be needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold Weather Advisory through the Wednesday Morning Commute in NEPA/Steuben county.

2) A few inches of lake effect snow tonight, mainly localized to Northern Onondaga county with lighter snow just to the south and east. Additional

3) An arctic blast will bring very cold temperatures and wind chills to the region through Saturday. Nor'easter currently looking to impact only areas east of our region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Yet another cold night is expected across the region tonight as a cold front sweeps through. This will bring another shot of arctic cold into the region. Cloud cover will be the biggest challenge with temperatures again tonight. Lows look to fall to around 0 again tonight in the Southern Tier of NY and NEPA where clouds should break up some. Clouds further north should keep the temperatures slightly warmer. With some light winds, wind chills have the potential again to drop to -10 to 15F in Steuben county and NEPA again. As a result, the cold weather advisory has been extended.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Modeling has trended to a bit more organized west northwest flow lake effect snow band into northern Onondaga county along with clipping northwest Madison county and western Oneida county. The most favorable timing looks to be this evening into the overnight. With ratios still 15-20:1, fluffy snow is still expected with only a few tenths of QPF yielding 4 or 5 inches north of Syracuse. A winter weather advisory has been issued with that in mind. Some additional lake effect snow showers are possible again Thursday and Friday with another reinforcing shot of arctic air.

Key Message #3

Temperatures look to trend even slightly colder Thursday through Saturday. Current wind chill values could get as low as -15 to -25F each night with only single digits and teens for highs. More cold weather headlines will likely be needed as we get closer in time. A nor'easter is still expected to track near or off the east coast this weekend. The majority of model and ensemble guidance continues to trend east with the GFS/GEFS trending west. The phasing is occurring much later with this storm waiting till reaching the southwest coast. Modeled height rises do not look sufficient enough to track this system close enough to the region at this time for a snow storm.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR-MVFR ceilings are expected through the forecast period with high variability between categories as time marches on. Persistent IFR ceilings are showing a very small probability of occurrence through 18Z Wednesday. Cold advection with upslope flow and limited moisture will allow for areas of light snow and visibility restrictions, particularly this afternoon. More robust lake effect snow bands move back into CNY this evening after 00Z-03Z with a high probability of IFR visibilities associated with occasionally heavier cells. Primarily looking at KSYR-KRME to experience these more significant impacts. Scattered flurries and nominal MVFR vis restrictions will be possible at KITH-KBGM, but this is a lower probability of occurrence.

Outlook...

Thursday thru Saturday... A few rounds of light snow showers with the potential for off and on lake effect snow showers at KRME and KSYR. Occasional restrictions likely.

Sunday...VFR with medium confidence. Monitoring trends of potential strong low pressure system moving northeast through the Western Atlantic.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ018. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ022.