textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A frontal boundary will slowly move eastward across the area leading to additional showers and thunderstorms into this evening. Storms will be slow moving and produce torrential downpours. High pressure looks to briefly build into the region on Tuesday before another frontal system approaches mid to late week, with renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will remain above average, with very warm humid conditons persisting through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

110 PM Update

The forecast remains on track in the near term period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to pop up at this time across NE PA and the NY southern tier. These showers and t'storms should continue to develop, becoming numerous to widespread later this afternoon and evening in these same areas. No changes were made to the flood watch with this update, as the potential is certainly still there. The showers and storms that are developing are becoming anchored to terrain and are nearly stationary for a time.

The bulk of the activity today is expected to be across NE PA, the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills. A flood watch remains in effect covering these areas until midnight tonight.

Similarly to Sunday, SBCAPE is projected to be between 1500-3000 J/kg with low-level lapse rates around 7 to 8 degrees C/km. Bulk shear is still low but slightly higher than Sunday between 15 and 30 knots, so there is the potential for a couple of storms to be on the stronger side with isolated damaging winds the main concern and SPC has all of NE PA and an area from near Elmira to Cooperstown southeast under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Any stronger storms would likely pulse up and down pretty quickly due to the lower shear values. Flash flooding will remain the greatest threat into the evening with PWATs of 1.7-1.9" as we continue to tap into moisture-rich air that has origins from the Caribbean, Gulf and Atlantic. Forecast sounding also feature tall, skinny CAPE sounding profiles across NE PA and the southern Catskills. Thunderstorms are expected to be slow-moving (or nearly stationary) and produce torrential downpours that can train over the same locations multiple times leading to flash flooding. Urban and low-lying areas will be most susceptible. Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid 80s, with heat indices in the upper 80s to low 90s at times.

Showers and storms will gradually come to an end this evening and the frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag to the south and east near or just pushing beyond the CWA borders by early Tuesday. It will still be a muggy night with not much of an air mass change behind the boundary with lows in the mid and upper 60s. There is the potential for areas of fog to form.

Tuesday is expected to be a largely dry day under partly to mostly sunny skies with ridging developing aloft and and high pressure building in at the surface. With the weakening frontal boundary still close by off to our south and east, a spotty shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out during the afternoon around the Poconos and southern Catskills. Temperatures will be trending back up with more sunshine; expect highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Afternoon dew points will be between 65 to 70 for CNY, with upper 60s to low 70s across NE PA...so still quite humid. Heat indices should peak between 90-95 for CNY and in the low to mid-90s for NE PA. This is just below heat advisory criteria, but will need to be monitored closely.

High pressure will remain over the area Tuesday night keeping conditions mainly dry under a clear to partly cloudy sky. Areas of fog will again be possible. Staying muggy Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

120 PM Update

Wednesday is expected to start out dry, but a shortwave looks to pass through the area in the afternoon, weakening the upper ridge enough to trigger some scattered to numerous showers and storms for the afternoon/evening hours. Some of these storms can once again produce very heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 2" and MUCAPE pushes 2500-3500 J/kg.

With plenty of instability ,and deep layer shear around 30 kts projected Wednesday afternoon, some storms could produce locally strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall. High temperatures Wednesday range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Factoring in dew points still in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are expected to be in the mid 90s. As a result, heat headlines look possible across portions of CNY, especially for valley and urban areas. Lows Wednesday night range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Pieces of energy embedded in a relatively zonal 500mb flow will keep scattered to numerous showers and storms around on Thursday, especially during the afternoon. Again there will be the potential for some locally heavy and gusty storms with plenty of instability and PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8" on average. Temperatures, dew points and heat indices remain very similar to Wednesday over the region. A few showers or isolated t'stroms linger into Thursday night as a stronger front approaches from the west. Still muggy though with lows in the mid 60s to near 70 expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

125 PM Update

The next cold front looks to cross the area Friday with additional showers and storms. The best chance looks to be across the NY southern Tier and NE PA, but will depend on the exact timing and location of the front. This front is trending stronger on the latest model guidance, meaning that behind it, there will actually be somewhat cooler and less humid conditions. Current NBM guidance brings in lower humidity and dew points to CNY by Friday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to around 80 expected. The humidity lingers in NE PA Friday afternoon, with dew points still in the upper 60s to low 70s....and high temps in the low to mid 80s. Cooler, more comfortable and dry conditions Friday night with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

High pressure and a drier trend seem to move in for the start of the upcoming weekend before perhaps some precipitation tries to return later Sunday into next Monday. Temperatures over the weekend look to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

150 PM Update

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be around this afternoon and early evening, mainly from ELM, BGM south to AVP. These will bring restrictions, especially to visibility as some storms will be locally heavy.

BGM and AVP have the best chance of seeing this convection, but it can't be ruled out at ELM as well and TEMPO groups are in the TAFs for the most likely timeframe, which is 18-22z. It could linger longer at AVP, and the tempo will be extended if necessary here.

Some locally gusty winds will be possible with incoming showers and storms as well. Otherwise, winds will be rather light for most of the period. As showers and storms wind down this evening, areas of low clouds and fog are expected later tonight into early Tuesday morning, especially around ITH, ELM and BGM and AVP where higher low level moisture will be present. The fog and stratus burns off by 12-13z and conditions return to VFR heading into the rest of Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday AM... Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered to numerous showers and t'storms could bring occasional restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-043-044- 047-048-072. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057. Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ055>057-062.