textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added some higher precipitation amounts Friday for wrap around lake effect precipitation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and breezy conditions expected for the rest of today and tomorrow, with light lake effect rain showers returning for northern Central NY going into the evening hours later today.

2) A deepening area of low pressure moves into the northeast Wednesday night with rain overspreading the region by Thursday Morning. Some snow is possible Friday into Saturday on the back side of the low some minor accumulation of snow possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Weak mid and upper level ridging is in place today into tomorrow though there is a subtle low level shortwave moving in from the North. This will mainly lead to a few scattered lake effect rain showers mainly for the Tug Hill region late this afternoon through tonight. Warm air advection through the overnight hours tonight and tomorrow night will help keep lows a little warmer than climatology, with mins in the upper 30s and 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A trough digging into the central US today along with a weak mid level shortwave near the gulf coast will attempt to phase later this week. A surface low begins to slowly deepen in the Ohio river valley Wednesday night into Thursday, with the warm front lifting into the Northeast Wednesday night. This will bring widespread rain to most of the region. With recent trends in models indicating a poor phase between the midwest trough and gulf coast shortwave the low will likely not deepen quickly. This means that even though the low is likely going to pass south of our region, the cold air aloft does not filter in quick enough to transition the precipitation to snow until the low is well east of us and most of the precipitation has come to an end. 850 mb temperatures below freezing do not start filtering in until late Thursday into Thursday night, with the overall cold air advection weak so deep enough cold air for snow to valley floors may not occur till Friday Morning. By then there will only be some residual showers though wrap around precipitation may keep some snow going in the Catskills. A deeper core of colder air moves in Saturday, with favorable conditions for Lake Effect Precipitation. Near the lake shore, the water temperatures may keep the precipitation mostly rain, including the NY thruway Corridor. The higher elevations south of I-90 in CNY will see snow but warm ground temperatures, snowfall during the day, and snow fall rates below a half inch per hour in the heavier showers will prevent any accumulation from happening.

High pressure builds in late this weekend into early next week with a gradual moderation of temperatures while remaining mostly dry.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. RME will have brief chances at borderline MVFR ceilings this afternoon, but kept the forecast just above MVFR for now. Gusty winds this afternoon out of the west will decrease this evening with light and variable winds expected overnight into Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.