textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made slight adjustments to temperatures Monday and Tuesday afternoon to account for NBM seasonal bias.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure with above normal temperatures through the middle of next week with a few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and again on Tuesday.

2) A cold front will bring the potential for stronger thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler conditions to wrap up next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure over the region today and southwest flow will bring mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures. High pressure will gradually move east as the day progresses allowing clouds to increase ahead of a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings are showing quite a bit of dry air in place over the region and as a short wave pushes in this afternoon, there will be limited moisture to work with. However, can't rule out some isolated to scattered showers or storms, mostly across the Finger Lakes Region and central NY, but any showers will have a tough time making it east of I81.

Bermuda high becomes established by the end of the weekend with warm southwest return flow bringing temperatures up into 80s on Sunday and possibly upper 80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday. NBM temperatures continue to be warmer than surrounding guidance, therefore made slight adjustments to bring temperatures down a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are in good agreement that a cold front will push into the region sometime on Wednesday. However, there could be a few isolated Tuesday on the periphery of the high, but thunderstorm coverage will turn more widespread Wednesday with the approaching front. How strong the instability will be is still somewhat questionable due to timing differences of frontal passage, but if everything aligns, can't rule out the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through at least around 00Z tomorrow at all terminals, with exception to RME, and potentially ELM. Fog has developed around the RME area, and will likely bounce between categories for the next few hours. Some light winds should develop after 10z, which will help mix out any fog. Additionally, there is a low probability for at ELM for an hour or two before sunrise, but low level winds will increase after 06Z, and this should be enough to limit fog formation early in the morning. Winds become southwesterly later tomorrow morning with gusts of 15-20 knots expected into the early afternoon. Locally stronger wind gusts are possible after 18Z. With an approaching system, a few terminals are trending MVFR cigs after 00z tomorrow.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm late Saturday into Sunday, which may result in brief restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.