textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Flood Watch was cancelled for most counties. It remains in effect for Sullivan and Delaware Counties in New York.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers redevelop over much of the area today and Thursday.

2) Drier and warmer conditions are expected through the start of the weekend, though rain returns by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Training of showers continue over Sullivan and Delaware Counties early this morning as the main axis of rain shifts east over the Hudson Valley. Based on the CAMs, there is potential that this rain will last for a few hours. Even if the rain were to end here shortly, there are ongoing hydro issues that will take some time to improve. For this reason, the Flood Watch will continue for Sullivan and Delaware Counties until conditions improve enough for us to end the warnings. Elsewhere, some isolated showers will be possible this morning. Clearing, light winds, and moisture from the rain led to patchy fog developing across the region. Fog will linger through the early morning hours. With winds gradually picking up by daybreak, fog should not linger around much past sunrise.

Northerly low-level flow will advect wraparound moisture into the region later today, leading to shower coverage becoming more scattered by midday. There will be limited instability but likely enough to support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Scattered showers will continue overnight and into Thursday as the low pressure system slowly drifts east. PWATs will generally be 1.5 inches or less. Models do show slightly higher PWATs in northern areas of the CWA. Despite the potential for slow moving showers, rain will generally be light. Areas with the highest PoPs are also areas that received little rain yesterday. Given this, the Flood Watch for the other counties was cancelled. Conditions will dry out Thursday night as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in.

Rain showers and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the 70s during the day. Overnight, temperatures will fall into the 50s and 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Surface high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry through the start of the weekend. Weak ridge riders may try to kick off a couple of showers late Friday, though moisture will be more limited. Conditions will trend warmer this period with highs around and above 80s across the region. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s, so it may feel a little muggy.

The second half of the weekend become a bit more uncertain. A weak surface low pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday and it drifts eastward. With high pressure over the Atlantic and this low near the Ohio River Valley, flow around these systems will advect moisture northward leading to showers developing Sunday. A frontal system then passes through late Sunday into Monday keeping rain around early next week. Model guidance diverge on what happens after the front moves through. Solutions like the ECMWF keep an upper level low present and the high pressure closer to the coast with rain showers on Tuesday. Other solutions like the GFS have a trough and dry northwest flow over the region. Given the uncertainty, chances for showers are forecasted Sunday through Tuesday with the highest chances on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR/IFR stratus is building near or over all terminals overnight except for KRME that is still under a mid cloud deck. The stratus deck will continue to from and lower a bit as we head toward sunrise. Some fog is possible as well particularly if any breaks occur in the stratus deck. This deck will be slow to lift today with an additional round of showers moving through. Ceilings should trend downward again during the evening hours.

Outlook:

Thursday...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Sunday...Shower and thunderstorm chances look to increase later in the day with the next approaching system.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ057-062.