textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made since the last update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower chances will continue through the weekend.

2) Above normal temperatures are expected next week as a ridge builds into the region. Showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Drier air will filter in behind the departing showers early this morning leading to a break in showers for most today. However, there will be a broad trough that will linger just north of the region. Waves within this trough will move through and take advantage of wraparound moisture from the departing low to support spotty showers for parts of Central NY. Instability will be limited, though with some 0-6 km shear expected, rumbles of thunder will also be possible. These showers will come to an end late today while a system stretches out from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered showers from this system will extend as far north as NY's Southern Tier. Any instability will be well south, so no thunderstorms are expected. With both rounds of showers, PWATs will be less than 1.5", so rain will generally be light. High pressure will build into the region late Saturday with dry conditions then expected for the rest of the weekend.

Temperatures through the start of the weekend will remain pleasant with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows for both nights will be in the 50s and 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A significant warm up is expected next week as a ridge will begin to build into the region. This ridge will extend well into Canada and with increasing heights, this will open the door for much warmer air to move into the region despite flow ranging between west to north. Temperatures will increase throughout the first half of the week with potential for highs in the 90s by midweek. The current NBM has temperatures near previous records, though there remains uncertainty with how warm it will get. Ensemble means are at least a few degrees lower than most deterministic guidance and would lean more toward NBM's 25th percentile. Sunny skies under a July sun though could easily push temperatures into the 90s. No matter how warm it gets, humidity will also be on the rise, leading to elevated heat indices. Heat headlines may be needed next week as we near closer to the hottest days.

Broad high pressure in the Southeast will bring Gulf moisture up to the region. Multiple waves will follow the leading edge of the ridge. This combination will lead to the development scattered showers and storms around midweek. These showers could bring some short-term relief from the heat. As mentioned in the previous discussion, guidance is showing the potential for EML plumes early to midweek. This and timing of precipitation will need to be monitored as this could lead to stronger thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Ceilings should gradually lower through the evening hours with IFR and MVFR levels expected for the overnight. Ceilings will be slow to lift and break up during the morning hours Friday. Some timing uncertainty is present with the timing of lower ceilings which is indicated through TEMPO groups. Also can't signal an all clear for isolated thunderstorms near or at KAVP for the first few hours of the TAF period. The potential for any thunder this evening at all NY TAF sites has decreased considerably.

Outlook:

Friday through Saturday...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...VFR likely.

Tuesday... Restrictions possible as showers and thunderstorms return.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964) 7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018) 7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.