textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update. There could be isolated showers Saturday afternoon and evening, especially over the Catskills and southern Tug Hill to Mohawk Valley regions. Added more valley fog into the forecast over the weekend and especially Sunday night as a surface high moves over the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and partly sunny weather today, but a few showers or isolated thunderstorms could clip the area, moving from northwest to southeast later this afternoon or evening.

2) Cooler temperatures with lower humidity, and mainly dry conditions expected for the weekend into early next week.

3) Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the middle of next week, with seasonably warm temperatures expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms early this morning with continue moving east, and should exit the forecast area by 3-5 AM, before sunrise. There could be some patchy fog and lingering low clouds around through early to mid morning as well. Otherwise, skies look to become partly to mostly sunny for the late morning and afternoon hours. A weak wave then moves through in the northwest flow pattern on the northeast side of the ridge; moving from southern Ontario toward Central PA or portions of NE PA. This could kickoff some isolated to scattered showers and t'storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. With lower instability expected, strong or severe storms are not expected at this time for our forecast area. Otherwise, dew point will be lower today across Central NY, in the low to mid 60s, so it will feel a bit less humid. Humidity remains rather high in NE PA, where dew points hover in the mid 60s to lower 70s into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower than yesterday; with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A more northerly, drier flow develops for Saturday into Sunday over the forecast area. A deep upper level trough will settle in over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend. Some mid and upper level moisture will try to rotate in from the north-northeast into our area by Saturday afternoon and evening. This could be enough to initiate some isolated showers; especially over the Mohawk Valley and Catskills. Confidence on exact amounts of cloud cover and any shower potential remains low. Did bump up PoPs into the 10-20% range to account for a few isolated showers in this timeframe. Otherwise, dew points and temperatures will be much lower, with refreshing humidity levels and highs 70 to 75 degrees expected. Northwest winds will be slightly breezy, between about 6 to 15 mph. Sunday feature much of the same with north winds continuing and a bit more in the way of sunshine expected. Cool temperatures continue with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. High pressure moves overhead Sunday night into Labor Day. This will bring cool overnight lows and widespread valley fog into Monday morning. Monday afternoon should feature plenty of sunshine, light winds and comfortable temperatures in the low to mid-70s. Tuesday is expected to remain dry and mostly sunny with continued mild temperatures as high pressure remains in place.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Early indications are that an upper level trough will approach and move through the Northeast US for the middle to end of the upcoming workweek. This would bring increasing southerly flow, moisture, instability and warmer temperatures. It also acts to increase chances for showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary approaches and moves through the region. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s, with dew points reaching back into the 60s. The exact timing of the trough and frontal passage remains uncertain this far out in time. The current model ensembles want to dry things out and bring cooler/less humid weather to the area by next Friday, but this is 7 days out, so the timing could change.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

An MCS that moved through the Finger Lakes into the Catskills has left a low level cloud deck in its wake. Restrictions are bouncing in and out of IFR at ITH and BGM and are expected to continue to do so through the night until around sunrise when we should see VFR conditions prevail through the rest of the day.

ELM is currently MVFR but rain earlier tonight and light to calm winds should allow for fog to develop. MVFR clouds overhead may limit fog formation, but we should be able to get a few hours of IFR restrictions to settle in early this morning.

MVFR cloud deck is expanding into the AVP area and we should start seeing restrictions here after 08z into the mid-morning hours before scattering out.

RME and SYR should be VFR through the period.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.