textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased cloud and shower coverage for this afternoon. Minor adjustments to shower and thunderstorm coverage Thursday into Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers taper off this evening with fog overnight.

2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday before drying back out heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low will depart the region tonight. With the loss of daytime instability any showers should taper off this evening. Clouds will clear out with light winds overnight leading to fog formation. Lows tonight will fall into the 50's with a warming trend starting Wednesday as highs reach 80.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure builds into the region for the middle of the week. Timing of the next system still looks to be in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. Enough instability and moisture looks present ahead of the main cold front for a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. At this time it appears two clusters get going Thursday afternoon one over NEPA/Sullivan NY as terrain interacts with moisture advection and the second ahead of the cold front where lift is a bit more favorable.

Depending on cloud cover the modeled environment still shows some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Modeled CAPE ranges from 750-1500 J/KG with around 30 knots of 0-6KM bulk shear Thursday afternoon and evening. Soundings do show some mid-level dry air and potential gusty wind concern. Ensemble data is trending toward a slower frontal passage in NEPA/Sullivan NY Friday lingering the chances for showers and thunderstorms a little longer. High pressure is still expected for the weekend. Highs still look be around 80 most days with Thursday and Sunday the warmest days with more typical overnight lows as well in the 50's and low 60's.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The last of the showers have moved out of the region. Conditions will be VFR this evening, though there is potential for fog at all terminals late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Visibilities would be reduced and the highest confidence for IFR restrictions is at ELM and RME. Conditions may be slow to improve in the morning with all terminals returning to VFR by 14z. Winds will become lighter later this evening and remain calm through the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Thursday morning...Mainly VFR, restrictions possible with morning fog.

Thursday Afternoon through Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system bringing showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.