textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) One more pleasant day is in store before a frontal system brings showers and thunderstorms to the region to finish out the week.

2) Conditions will trend warmer this weekend and into next week as a ridge builds into the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will remain in control today, leading to dry and pleasant conditions. Temperatures will max out in the 70s with low humidity expected. Overnight, temperatures will fall into the 50s.

Sky cover will gradually increase beginning early Thursday morning as a frontal system approaches the region. Showers along a warm front will push in from the west and spread eastward throughout the morning hours. Models are showing relatively low values of MLCAPE (up to 500 J/kg) with 30 to 40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear. Mid-level lapse rates are modeled to not be steep either. Given this, there is low confidence that stronger storms will be possible. However, a slower arrival of clouds and showers would allow for more daytime heating and more instability, especially areas further south where the current forecast is slowest with PoPs. The trend of upcoming model runs should give a better idea for the potential of stronger storms.

Lingering instability after sunset may be enough to support some nighttime thunderstorms as the cold front pushes through. Otherwise, there will be a brief break from the rain showers as drier air fills in behind the departing front. The low associated with the frontal system will linger just north of the region Friday as a weak system slowly passes to the south. This combination will support the redevelopment of showers during the daytime hours. The northern low will eventually drift far enough away that most of Central NY dries out Friday night while the southern system will keep showers going, especially across Northeast PA and the Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Over the weekend, an upper level ridge will begin to build over much of the country, including the Northeast. Temperatures will trend warmer beginning Saturday as highs go from the 70s to the 80s and possibly some low 90s in valley locations. Initially, the humidity will be low but that too will increase early next week with muggy conditions expected. High pressure will return Sunday and will generally keep conditions fairly quiet into early next week though a couple of passing showers cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected across the region through the TAF period as high pressure will be overhead. Mostly clear skies today will become cloudy tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

Outlook:

Thursday through Sunday...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.