textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some changes with regards to shower coverage and timing through early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Still looking rather cloudy tonight with lowering chances for any frost.

2) Unsettled pattern this weekend into the middle of next week with several low pressure systems moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Instability driven clouds late this afternoon should decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating. A couple of additional weak shortwaves though look to generate additional clouds and spotty showers overnight. Eventhough temperatures still look to fall into the 30's tonight, clouds should prevent anything more than patchy frost.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Model and ensemble guidance continue to show a broad trough over the Eastern US through most of the next week. As a result, the showery and somewhat cool weather pattern looks to continue. A low pressure system moving through the region Saturday looks to generate a round of showers. Ensemble guidance shows the highest coverage of showers over NEPA and the Southern Tier of NY with this round. Some breaks in the action are expected this weekend but yet another system Sunday renews shower chances. Shower coverage looks to decrease some Monday and Tuesday with the next system modeled to move through Wednesday into Thursday next week. Temperatures continue seasonably cool with 50's and 60's for highs and mainly upper 30's to low 40's for lows. QPF does not look sufficient enough for any flooding concerns at this time. Conditional setup for patchy frost Tuesday morning with slightly lower temperatures if clouds break up.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Clouds have moved in over much of the area this afternoon but ceilings remain VFR. Occasional spotty showers are expected this afternoon into tonight as an upper disturbance moves through, but restrictions are not expected at this time. Given the spotty nature of the precipitation and dry air currently in place, any shower activity has been kept out of the TAFs in the near term. Another wave is expected to move through tomorrow leading to scattered showers from late-morning into the afternoon, but the potential for any restrictions looks low at this time.

West to northwest winds are expected to gust around 15-20 knots through this evening before becoming light and variable. Westerly winds are expected to increase again toward the end of the TAF forecast.

Outlook: Friday through Monday..Cool and unsettled period with intermittent chances for showers and restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chance of isolated showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.