textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast high temperatures have been lowered by several more degrees for this afternoon and especially Wednesday due to smoke from wildfires in south-central Canada limiting solar heating. That being said, all Heat Advisories remain intact since it will still be hot and humid.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid weather will continue this afternoon. Temperatures become a bit cooler in Central NY on Wednesday as a cold front moves through from the north, but it will remain hot and humid across parts of Northeast PA. Smoke from wildfires in south-central Canada may limit solar heating somewhat.

2) Cooler and more unsettled weather will move into the area for the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A very warm airmass overhead continues to result in very warm surface temperatures, along with dew points in the mid 60 to near 70. The haze due to smoke aloft from wildfires across south-central Canada has limited solar heating a little bit so far, but latest satellite trends show this haze temporarily moving east of the area as the afternoon continues to progress. This should still allow for temperatures to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s by the mid-late afternoon, with heat indices generally 95-100 degrees. The highest heat indices will be in the immediate Syracuse area, where it may feel closer to 105 degrees. Heat Advisories remain in effect until 8PM area-wide.

A cold front will move through the area from north to south on Thursday, which will allow for somewhat cooler temperatures to move in for Central NY (still remaining hot across most of Northeast PA). This front will also bring in less humid air for Central NY as dew points fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Latest near-surface smoke model guidance continues to show higher concentrations of smoke getting close to the surface on Wednesday. This could significantly reduce high temperatures. For now, reduced forecast highs for Wednesday by several more degrees, but it is highly possible that forecast highs may need to be reduced further. For now, opted to keep the Heat Advisories we have out for the Wyoming Valley-Poconos in Northeast PA intact to avoid mixed messaging and because smoke concentrations may be a bit less there, but it is certainly possible heat indices may fall a bit below criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The strong ridge retrogrades west Wednesday evening into Thursday with the region under northwest flow. Temperatures will still be above normal, but dew points will be low. One thing to watch Thursday is what happens upstream in Canada north of the Great Lakes. Right now models are dry, but with NY/PA right under the northeast edge of the ridge of high pressure, it won't take much to get a storm complex develop and dive southeast into the Mid Atlantic.

Better chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms comes this weekend as the axis of the big ridge sets up over the intermountain west with a trough beginning to dig into the Northeast. 0-6 km shear this weekend is elevated with the jet stream overhead and NW flow, with values hovering between 30 and 50 knots. Most models have at least some CAPE developing Saturday and Sunday along with 700-500 mb lapse rates between 6C/km and 7C/km. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR is expected over the near term with high level cirrus and smoke passing through this afternoon and tonight. Forecast models indicate wildfire smoke from Canada will settle lower in the atmosphere and possibly affect ground levels with high particulates and restrictive visibilities tomorrow. Expecting a dense enough corridor to affect KSYR- KITH-KBGM with MVFR visibility after 12Z Weds. Other airports are also expected to have some effect from HZ or FU but confidence is lowest at KELM and KAVP. LLWS is also possible for a few hours tonight at all sites.

Gusty winds subside this evening and recover late tomorrow morning to around 10 knots with higher gusts.

Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon through Friday...Visibility restrictions likely at times due to wildfire smoke from Canada. MVFR seems to be the most confident forecast at this time for Wednesday, but local IFR cannot be ruled out. Wildfire smoke density is still uncertain for Thursday and Friday at this time.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ043-044-047-048- 072. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Wednesday night for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037- 044>046-055>057.