textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some minor adjustments made to precipitation chances, temperatures and dewpoints based on the latest forecast model trends. No significant changes were made at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another round of showers and storms expected Friday and Saturday. An isolated severe storm will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. Heat and humidity remain across the region.

2) After quiet weather on Sunday, an active pattern returns for next week with a gradual cooling trend expected as the week progresses.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The weather pattern for Friday and Saturday will be similar to yesterday, with the Bermuda high pushing warm humid air into the region and a broad trough over Canada slinging shortwaves through the region.

On Friday, heat and humidity will build as the day progresses, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints back in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop again. Plenty of instability should be present with pockets of 1500-2000 j/kg of CAPE across the area, but shear is expected to be weaker with 10-25kts of 0-6km bulk shear expected. The trigger for these showers and storms will be a shortwave moving in from the Great Lakes. Latest guidance has slowed this feature down compared to previous forecasts, with it arriving later in the afternoon. CAMs have caught on to this and are showing precip initiation starting around mid afternoon, lasting into the late evening hours. SPC has portions of the Catskills and NEPA in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Based on the current ingredients forecast, it seems the best chance for severe weather will from a cell that is able to tap into a pocket of higher CAPE and have a collapsing core cause a microburst.

Heavy rain will be accompany some of these storms, allowing for a chance for isolated flash flooding across areas that have been saturated from the recent rains. WPC has put our entire area in a Marginal risk for flash flooding.

On Saturday, another weak shortwave will ripple through the area, kicking off another round of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. The severe threat looks very low as bulk shear is forecast to be even weaker and CAPE a little weaker. Heavy rain chances will remain, with isolated flash flooding possible across areas saturated by recent rains. A Marginal Risk for flash flooding continues across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A welcome reprieve from heat and rain is expected on Sunday as weak high pressure builds into the area. Temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected, but the much lower humidity will make it feel quite nice outside.

A weather pattern change starting at the beginning of next week will bring continued shower chances through the week, but temperatures and humidity will be trending lower. The Bermuda high is expected to weaken and slide south over the Bahamas into the Gulf as more zonal flow develops across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This will end the southerly flow pushing the higher humidity into the area and allow for Canadian air to filter into the region, bringing cooler temperatures through the week. A few shortwaves will ripple through the pattern, kicking off scattered showers through mid week. A stronger shortwave with a cold front is progged to move through the area sometime during the end of the week, bringing high pressure, dry conditions and cooler temps for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

With the humid conditions, light winds, and high pressure overhead, fog is expected to develop at a few terminals, especially where it rained this afternoon and evening. Highest confidence for fog is at ELM, with confidence in BGM and ITH as well. The rain has also dropped temps into the low to upper 60s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, so we are not going to need much cooling to get the temp to hit the dewpoint. These figures point to a strong case for fog development.

There's lower confidence for AVP, so fog was taken out of the 06z TAF set. SYR, RME, and AVP should be VFR through the TAF period.

Outlook:

Friday night through Tuesday...Unsettled with repeating times of showers and scattered thunderstorms and associated restrictions. Overnight fog/mist restrictions are also possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.