textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased snowfall amounts for northern Central NY counties for the upcoming heavy lake effect snow event starting this evening. Conditions are trending favorable for a long-duration lake effect event, with the first portion depicting a well- organized, heavy band expected for Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties, where 1 to 2 feet of snow is expected, with possible localized areas of up to 3 feet. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible, with up to 3 inches per hour possible during the overnight hours tonight into Tuesday morning.

Wording for whiteout conditions added to headlines, as the combination of gusty winds up to 50 mph and heavy lake effect snow will create widespread blowing snow for northern Central NY this evening through Tuesday morning.

Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Steuben County for snow expected, as lake effect snow from Lake Erie is expected to push into Steuben County this evening through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front today will bring strong gusty winds across the area.

3) A prolonged lake effect snow event is expected from Monday night into midweek across northern Central NY. Increasing winds will lead to areas of widespread blowing and drifting snow, with periods of reduced visibility and heavy lake effect.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A deepening low progresses over the Great Lakes, where warm air advection and southerly flow has begun, increasing temperatures into the mid to upper 30s, with a few areas already at 40 degrees. A cold front pushing in from the west this afternoon will begin to drop temperatures back to below freezing in the late afternoon, where slick spots may develop on untreated surfaces. Additionally, and perhaps the larger threat, will be increasing winds as the pressure gradient tightens going into the afternoon. Forecast soundings in BUFKIT show some top of boundary layer winds approaching 60 knots. Wind gusts were raised closer to the NBM 90th percentile to match closer to the potential max wind gusts in BUFKIT. Wind gusts up to 50 mph can be expected across all of Central NY and NE PA through Tuesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level low will pass north of the area this evening, with westerly flow transitioning to northwesterly flow. Cold air filters into the region, with 850 mb temperatures falling into the -10 to -15 C range with relatively warm Lake Ontario temperatures of 4 to 6 degrees C. As northwest flow establishes, a multi-lake connection develops, and well-organized lake effect band or bands are expected to develop over northern Central NY this evening and into the overnight hours. Embedded shortwaves rotating around the upper low will periodically move through the region, impacting band orientation and organization and enhancing snowfall rates downstream of the lakes.

For tonight through Wednesday morning, 1 to 2 feet of snow, with localized amounts up to 3 feet, is expected for northern Central NY. Model soundings depict enhancement overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, with negative omega maximums and LI CAPE intersecting in the DGZ, which may increase snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour.

Heavy lake effect snow, in combination with strong gusty winds, will create widespread blowing snow, which could create blizzard-like, whiteout conditions.

Winter Storm Warnings for Onondaga-Madison-Oneida counties, and Winter Weather Advisories for Cayuga-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego counties, remain in effect this evening through Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Temperatures are warming across the area and this will bring an end to the freezing rain, however, rain showers and MVFR to LIFR restrictions are possible through Monday morning. Also, low level wind shear will continue until the cold front pushes through later this morning. Ceilings will also lift into MVFR or even VFR Monday after FROPA, but expect winds to pick up with peak gusts into 35 - 45 knot range possible. Lake effect snow will start to sneak in towards KSYR 21Z Monday-00Z Tuesday, and by midnight conditions under the lake effect band will likely be VLIFR with near white conditions due to the heavy snow and winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Much colder with continued gusty winds and restrictive lake effect snow showers, especially KSYR-KRME but at least occasionally the other NY terminals. KSYR-KRME may have combination of heavy snow and blowing snow at times, with below 1 mile visibility.

Wednesday...Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers for mainly the NY terminals, but cannot rule out some showers making it south to KAVP.

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible behind a cold front that brings snow showers to the region. Limited to mainly KSYR-KRME by Friday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-044- 047-048-072. NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009-018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ017-044>046. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ022. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ062.