textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shower and thunderstorm chances have trended earlier for Sunday. Showers and storms could hit as early as late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry and pleasant conditions are expected through the first half of the weekend with high pressure overhead. However, showers and thunderstorms are now expected Sunday afternoon and evening.

2) Active pattern sets up for next week, with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Will have to watch for potential severe thunderstorms towards the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will be overhead this weekend. After morning fog burns off this morning, expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight will be clear and cool again, with lows into the low 50s.

High pressure slides east on Sunday and warm and humid southwest return flow takes hold. Temperatures will rise into the low 80s and dewpoint values into the mid 60s. Models have sped up a midlevel impulse for Sunday afternoon/evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be more likely now earlier in the day Sunday, vs. previous model progs that were showing the wave pushing through Sunday night into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There is potential for showers and thunderstorms several days next week. A large upper level ridge sets up over the Eastern CONUS. Our area will likely be on the outer periphery of this ridge with fairly strong westerly flow aloft. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to traverse the outer ridge throughout the week, and this will create the potential for ridge rider thunderstorm complexes. Still too early to tell at this time, but if the timing of one of the shortwave impulses aligns with peak daytime heating, then severe thunderstorms will be likely, especially with the strong west to northwest flow aloft. At this time, the latest model guidance shows some potential for this on Wednesday afternoon, but again, it is way too early to forecast severe thunderstorm potential this far out, but this will be something to watch over the coming days due to the favorable pattern.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

IFR fog at ELM should clear up just after 12Z. VFR conditions under high pressure are expected at all terminals through the TAF period. A SW wind shift tonight will push clouds into the area and keep winds light. Some guidance suggests patchy fog may develop, especially at ELM tonight, but the aforementioned clouds and light winds should keep the the fog from forming.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions, especially each afternoon/evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.