textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strengthening ridge of high pressure will be the main feature in the coming days leading to above average temperatures through the middle of next week. Potential for some afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

2) A cold front will bring the potential for stronger thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler conditions to wrap up next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Westerly flow remains in place today, becoming more southwesterly tonight as an upper level ridge gradually builds into the region. Overall quiet weather is expected with lingering morning clouds giving way to partial clearing late this morning into the afternoon. Highs are forecasted in the low to mid 80s, with NBM temperatures trending a few degrees warmer this update. Similar to previous updates, temperatures were still nudged slightly lower today as well as for Monday and Tuesday.

Surface high pressure develops east if the region over Bermuda early this week will continue to strengthen southwesterly flow and warm air advection across the northeast. This will bring more summer like conditions, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s on Monday and Tuesday and overnight lows remaining mild in the low to mid 60s. Dew points are expected to rise into the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday, with some locations potentially reaching the upper 60s Tuesday afternoon, making humidity increasingly noticeable.

There is also some concern regarding the potential for isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF shows an EML plume moving through Monday afternoon, which is reflected in model soundings showing a decent amount of instability along with a cap in place. Some form of forcing would likely be needed to break the cap and tap into the instability. By Tuesday, the cap is no longer shown in place, increasing the potential for afternoon thunderstorm development, especially if a shortwave were to move through along the warm front. Model sounding show favorable instability parameters, however soundings also remain fairly dry, so there is still some uncertainty regarding how this will play out.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms remains to be Wednesday when a cold front moves through the region. Similar to the previous update the bulk of the convection looks to be from midday through the afternoon, and while there remains some uncertainty with regards to timing, the best instability seems to be setting up across NE PA through portions of the Southern Tier of NY and into the southern Catskills. If everything can come together, some locally strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the afternoon and early evening. High temperatures are expected to fall back into the 60s for the second half of the week behind the front.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Light rain will continue pushing through portions of central NY this evening, but not expecting any restriction from this. Following the rain, lingering moisture will make fog possible at SYR and RME after midnight, but latest model guidance has pulled back some from the previous forecast. However, due to the uncertainty, decided to leave a tempo through the early morning hours with IFR at RME and MVFR fog at SYR. Model soundings are still hinting at the possibility for fog at ELM, but no rain has fallen there and the current thinking is any fog will be very brief, so it's been left out of the forecast for now. All terminals should return to VFR by 13Z tomorrow morning.

Winds are a bit breezy this afternoon with gusts around 20 kts currently being observed over much of the region. Southwesterly winds will remain breezy through the evening before calming some overnight. Winds will then become west to northwesterly Sunday morning with sustained speeds of less than 10 kts.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; morning valley fog possible and afternoon isolated showers/thunderstorms - both of which could result in restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.