textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased snowfall totals with light accumulations likely for most areas east of I-81 today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Round of light snow today.

2) Very cold early this week centered on Tuesday. Lake Effect largely to miss our region. Below zero wind chills.

3) Another system around Wednesday night and Thursday with snow showers possible. Larger system possible next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Enough lift and moisture looks to be present to develop an area of light snow across NE PA and the Southern Tier of NY around sunrise. This area of snow should push to the northeast as low pressure tracks up the east coast through tonight. Models have struggled with the track and resultant QPF from this system for days now. Still quite a range in hi-res data is present at this late stage. Incorporated elements of the NAM, RGEM and HRRR which did nudge slightly higher amounts of snowfall further west today. A quick 1 to locally 3 inches of snow could fall with the highest amounts in Pike and Sullivan counties by this evening. Amounts are under advisory criteria but a few slick spots could still occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. A few of the hires models do develop a few snow showers/squalls Monday afternoon and evening. Moisture continues to be lacking on modeled soundings for a more widespread potential. However, winds should increase along with another shot of cold air entering the region. The mean southwesterly flow should keep our region mainly free of Lake Effect snow Monday.

Tuesday continues to be indicated as the coldest day where highs won't get out of the teens. Gusty westerly winds over 20 mph should occur as well dropping wind chills below zero. We may reach cold weather advisory criteria for parts of the region as well. Brief intervals of westerly flow may bring a few lake effect snow showers into our region off of Lake Ontario and/or Erie. It would be a very fluffy snow given the temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another clipper system to likely move through Wednesday and Thursday. Like the past few, southwesterly flow will likely ring out moisture as it is coming into the region with moisture/ accumulating snow increasing again east of our region. Some lake effect snow could materialize. However, a lot of us in the middle look to be left out of anything more than a dusting again.

A more favorable setup for widespread snowfall is possible next weekend as large scale overrunning occurs ahead of a low pressure system tracking through the south to the east coast. The GEFS are most aggressive on this with the EPS a bit slower in the timing. Kept the forecast close to our NBM for the time being.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Snowfall and restrictions currently impacting BGM and AVP will continue for the next few hours, with BGM improving first. On radar, BGM is currently on the edge of the snowfall, with current IFR conditions expected to improve by 13Z to MVFR/Fuel Alt, and then VFR in the afternoon. For AVP, snowfall and restrictions linger for a bit longer, with Fuel Alt improving to MVFR by the afternoon.

All other terminals will remain VFR for the 12z TAF package.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially across Central NY.

Wednesday...An approaching system keeps the chance of snow showers around and associated restrictions, mainly for NY terminals (low confidence).

Thursday...Stronger signal for a front or a low pressure system passing by with restrictions possible (medium confidence).

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.