textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost advisories expanded to include all of northeast PA early this morning. This morning's overnight lows were lowered areawide based on the latest trends. Increased winds and wind gusts for Thursday, with NW winds around 15 mph and gusts around 25 mph expected. Chances for rain are increasing Sunday into Sunday night with remnant tropical system approaching the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool and mostly sunny today. Chances for showers increase tonight into Thursday across the NY Thruway corridor and points north. Breezy northwest winds arrive on Thursday.

2)Dry weather returns areawide for Friday and Saturday, with a gradual warming trend expected.

3) Watching for increasing moisture and rainfall potential heading into Sunday and Monday as the remnants of a tropical system (TD-9) track into the Ohio Valley.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

It will be starting off quite cold early this morning with areas of frost around. Skies are clear and temperatures will be in the upper 20s to 30s for the valleys, with low 40s across the hilltops. Frost Advisories remain in effect until 9 AM for all of Northeast PA; while the urban valley locations of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre may not see frost, immediate surrounding locations likely will. There could also be patchy frost in some of the colder pockets surrounding the Finger Lakes, but coverage is not widespread enough for advisories at this time. Some patchy river valley fog will also be around through mid morning. After that, temperatures warm up into the 60s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. There will be a few more clouds around across the Syracuse metro to I-90 corridor this afternoon as a weak frontal disturbance swings through. Additional showers will develop overnight into Thursday off of Lake America in the cool westerly flow. 850mb temperatures drop to around +4C on Thursday, giving enough lake induced instability for the shower development. With the increased cloud cover it won't be nearly as cool tonight with lows only dipping down into the mid-40s to low 50s. Thursday will still be mild with highs in the 60s. Breezy northwest winds are expected to develop through the day on Thursday, as deep boundary layer mixing is anticipated up to the 800mb level. Winds were increased from the blended guidance, and surface winds will likely be between 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts (25-30 mph).

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure returns on Friday, with just a few lingering lake effect clouds and perhaps a lingering shower across northern Oneida County. Otherwise, expect increasing sunshine and seasonable temperatures. The surface high slides east of the area during the day on Saturday, with a southerly return flow developing. This will boost temperatures up into the mid-60s to low 70s with plenty of sunshine expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3

We will be keeping a close eye on TD-9, which is expected to strengthen over the Gulf in the coming days. This system and its remnants are then forecast to move north into the Ohio Valley later in the weekend into early next week. The exact track and timing remain uncertain. However, the latest model guidance is coming into better agreement that rain will overspread our area, likely sometime Sunday into Monday depending on exact system movement and speed. The ensemble guidance is increasing PoPs up into the likely and even categorical range late Sunday into early Monday as PWATs potential surge out ahead of the incoming system.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today, VFR for all terminals, any fog early will burn off an hour or two after sunrise. Mid-level clouds will slowly filter south with lowering decks by the late afternoon with the northern terminals getting closer to the lower end VFR heights. South to southwest winds will gust to the 15 to 20 kt range during the afternoon.

Tonight, mainly VFR conditions expected, northern terminals will be close to lower end VFR CIGs and periods of MVFR levels can't be ruled out. Some showers will cross the area, mainly for SYR & RME as a trough crosses the area. As of now, a few showers may make it as far south as the NY/PA line, but should be limited.

Outlook...

Thursday...Cold front with a few showers but should stay mainly VFR.

Friday through Sunday...High pressure, mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...None.