textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated timing of rain showers tonight and tomorrow morning. Also expanded coverage of fog for both tonight and tomorrow night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With increasing heat and humidity, most afternoons through this next week will have chances of pop up showers and thunderstorms.

2) Above normal temperatures return this weekend and stick through most of next week, and with increasing humidity, it will be muggy as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front on the leading edge of the building ridge tonight into tomorrow brings cloudy conditions and showers to NEPA and the Southern Tier tomorrow. Once the ridge builds in Sunday, heat will be building. Initially, low level moisture lags behind with a drier day Sunday and Monday, but by Tuesday, a surface high moves off the eastern US with a broad low in the central US that helps advect in higher dew points. Tuesday and beyond, models show 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing each afternoon. We will be close enough to the NE edge of the ridge for shortwaves riding around the top of the ridge to have enough lift to trigger storms. Shear is going to be between 20 and 30 knots for much of the week, better up in the Mohawk Valley, so will have to watch for some stronger storms. Downburst and microburst will be the main concerns with storms next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A large upper level ridge will slowly be building into the Eastern US over the next week. Tomorrow will be the last cooler day as weak NW flow continues with 850 mb temperature below 15C. Sunday is when the ridge begins to really build with 500 mb heights rising towards 590 dm and warm air advection at 850 mb increases. Dry air through the soundings Sunday and Monday will at least limit the mugginess, dew points will be on the rise Tuesday and beyond as the low levels become more saturated. Some models are pushing dew points into the low to mid 70s mid to late week, which looking at forecast soundings and upstream soil moisture, it is looking possible. An early look at heat indices does show widespread upper 90s and even low 100s though with the moisture in place, clouds and thunderstorm development may limit these values in the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected this evening with high pressure in place. After sunset skies will mostly clear other than some upper level clouds. The clear skies and calm winds will allow widespread fog to develop tonight. MVFR to IFR restrictions are currently expected across the area, with RME/ITH/BGM/ELM having the best chances to see IFR visby and ceilings. There is a chance for rain showers to move into NEPA and the Southern Tier early tomorrow morning and this could possibly create some mixing and lift the fog before sunrise tomorrow.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon...Additional restrictions possible as as several disturbances will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday night and Monday...VFR likely during the day, valley fog possible early Sunday morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964) 7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018) 7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.