textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts for Sunday have started to trend down some.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A split weekend is expected, as high pressure crosses the area for today, followed by showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.

2) High pressure will move into the region, providing quiet weather for Tuesday through most of Wednesday, followed by a quick passing cold front and another round of showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure tracking just north of the forecast area and a ridge building across the region will briefly provide for a pleasant day today. Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s expected today. Winds will also be light with the sfc high just to the north.

The weather will become unsettled starting Sunday morning/afternoon as a sfc low tracks over the area. The sfc low will track east within a shortwave trough extending south out of Canada where another sfc low will be found near James Bay. Out ahead of the approaching sfc low, moisture will surge north, causing PWat values to increase to around or above 2.00" by Sunday afternoon/evening. With the forcing form the passing sfc low and trailing cold front, showers will become better organized over the area, with heavy rainfall possible at times. This will especially be the case for any thunderstorms that may develop. Thunderstorm potential as of right now looks minimal, but if shower development is delay to later in the afternoon and there is a bit more clearing, then some better instability may develop and increase the potential for some thunderstorms. Timing among guidance is still in disagreement between the morning and afternoon for onset time of the showers/storms. More persistent showers will continue through the first half of the overnight hours on Sunday night before shifting off to the east. Scattered to isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm will linger through the day on Monday. Rainfall amounts are split among the guidance with a stripe of heavier rainfall more consistently in the Pennsylvania portion of the forecast area. This is the area where better forcing is expected with the moisture in place. Rainfall of up to around an inch is possible for the northern half of the forecast area, and closer to an inch and a half for the southern half is possible. But again, rainfall amounts from guidance are trending lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will track across the Ohio Valley and to the Eat Coast from Tuesday through Wednesday. This will allow for quiet weather for the majority of both of these days. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s can also be expected.

As of the latest guidance, a cold front will extend south from a potent sfc low up near Hudson Bay. This front will track east across the area late Wednesday through Thursday, bringing another round of showers. Some guidance brings the front through quick, while other guidance is a bit slower with the passage as a sfc low develops and moves along the boundary. This far out, guidance is sure to flip back and forth in time.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Morning fog/mist will result in LIFR visby restrictions at least KELM this morning prior to 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period (at least through 12Z Sunday). Fog may once again develop at KELM late tonight/early Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday...Restrictions likely with showers, especially in the afternoon/evening hours. Some thunder also possible.

Monday...A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.