textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted winds higher for this afternoon and evening as model guidance is well below observations. Temperatures are slightly warmer for Tuesday night, with less of a risk for frost in the areas still in the growing season.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Blustery winds today behind the cold front with a dry and cool airmass moving in from Canada. Cold temperatures tonight could result in areas of frost across portions of New York. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Bradford, Wyoming and Lackawanna counties in Pennsylvania.

2) Fairly quiet rest of the week with a weak trough mid-week followed by more high pressure for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A very blustery day across the region with winds gusting 20-35mph behind the cold front that pushed through this morning. Most of the rain showers have moved east, but a few pop up lake effect showers will be possible into the evening for areas north of the Southern Tier. Model guidance did not do a great job advertising these winds, as most models topped out around 25 mph or so over the past couple of days. These stronger winds are mixing down some very dry air above the surface, with dewpoints falling into the 30s across much of the area and even a few 30 degree readings across the northern Finger Lakes. Temps will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The main forecast question for tonight is will we have widespread frost formation with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s across the entire area. Winds are forecast to remain active through much of the night with NW flow across the region. A high pressure system slowly moving eastward this evening will be the main feature that would allow frost to develop or not. If the high progresses eastward faster than expected, winds will decouple quicker and allow for radiational cooling to take effect faster, bringing frost across much of the area. A slower progression eastward keeps winds active and limits frost to sheltered locations. Current thinking is winds will lighten up enough over Bradford, Wyoming and Susquehanna counties(currently in the growing season) that we will have a few hours late tonight where we could get widespread frost formation. Because of this, a Frost Advisory has been issued from 1am to 9am.

Our other growing zones; Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties in NY should miss out on much of the frost with NW winds expected to remain active through the night. These NW winds could also move slightly warmer air off the warm waters of the Finger Lakes and Lake America into surrounding areas, helping mitigate frost. If the high pressure system moves in a little quicker, we could see some patchy frost develop across sheltered areas. If your location frosts easily, take the proper precautions with outdoor plants.

High pressure will dominate the area Tuesday, with temperatures in the 50s and continued NW winds and mostly sunny skies. The ridge axis is currently modeled to move east of us by the evening hours, allowing southerly flow to return in the evening hours. The cold air will remain entrenched for one more night mostly east of I-81 with widespread mid to upper 30s expected. To the west of I-81 onto the Wyoming Valley, WAA should occur through most of the night, keeping temperatures here in the low 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Fairly quiet weather is expected from mid-week into the weekend. A weak trough looks to slide through Ontario Wednesday into Thursday, allowing for a chance for some light scattered rain showers mostly across the northern portion of the area Wed night and Thursday. Temps will be warm Wed and Thurs with the southerly flow, topping out in the mid 60s to low 70s. A cold front associated with the aforementioned trough will bring cooler temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri and Sat with conditions remaining dry.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Current gusty winds will continue to taper off tonight. Dry air behind the cold front as well as winds likely not completely dying off will prevent fog for most of the night. ELM may still go calm and fog around sunrise given how long the nights are now and still warmer river waters. Tomorrow is looking VFR at all terminals with some breezy winds out of the northwest a few hours after sunrise.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, some potential for morning fog at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038-039- 043. NY...None.