textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Air Quality Alert has been issued for all of Central NY for the rest of today until midnight tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near-surface smoke remains present today, but it will shift to the southwest and thin out. However, the smoke is expected to lift northeastward back across the entire area later tonight.

2) A low pressure system will bring thunderstorms to the region Saturday. Some storms may become severe primarily west of I-81. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.

3) Temperatures will be near average throughout next week with showers and storms returning around midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Steering winds aloft will trend slightly more to the north late tonight and Friday with the smoke plume expected to shift south across most of the area. The latest HRRR and RAP models clearly show these smoke trends which should allow for a brief respite from the pollution especially across Central NY and the Western Catskills. The western and central Southern Tier, and parts of NEPA may stay just within the slightly thicker edge of the smoke. Smoke is then expected to lift back into the all areas on Saturday ahead of a low pressure system.

An Air Quality Alert will remain in effect for NEPA until midnight Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An upper-level wave will move through the Great Lakes region and intensify an area of low pressure on Saturday. A warm front will lift north in the morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The area should then destabilize into the afternoon with CAPE values nearing 1500 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear values around 40 kts. A surface cold front will act as a trigger for an additional round of thunderstorms during the afternoon which may become organized within this environment. Weaker mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor for widespread severe activity. The latest SPC Outlook continues the Marginal Risk for a large portion of the area, but a Slight Risk has been introduced for the central Southern Tier, Western Finger Lakes and portions of NE PA where the maximum instability will coincide with best shear.

The environment will also be excessively moist with this system as PWATs will be as high as 2 inches which is slightly above normal deep moisture levels for this time of year. Antecedent conditions indicate mainly dry soils and smaller stream channels with low flows on most other watercourses. WPC has painted the region within a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook which is a good indicator of the main flood risk focusing on urban drainage areas and small town storm drain networks. Much of the rural area is drier than normal and will take a significant amount of concentrated and prolonged rain rates for channelized flash flooding.

All of this expected weather activity should disrupt and move the smoke out of the region for Sunday. High pressure then builds into the area through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures throughout next week will generally be near or even slightly below normal. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday with the passage of another combination frontal system sweeping across the region. Significant deep moisture returns ahead of this system with the potential for locally heavy rain again as showers and storms develop. A broad trough of low pressure sets up again across eastern Canada with the upper flow becoming established out of the northwest which may result in the wildfire smoke returning to the area toward the middle of the week.

AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A current mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR visby is expected to last for a hour or two before a weak front will pushes through and kicks most of the smoke out of CNY and NEPA. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Friday night into early Saturday...Wildfire smoke may lift back north into the area with associated visibility restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR.

The rest of Saturday into Sunday morning...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.