textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the afternoon forecast package. Forecast rainfall totals for Saturday have increased slightly, but flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers are expected to move into the area on Saturday, perhaps mixing with some wet snow at the highest elevations of the Poconos and Catskills Saturday night.

2) Dry and mild weather is expected on Monday, then several systems will move through next week with additional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure will track into the region on Saturday, which will bring rain to the area along with cool temperatures (highs only in the lower 40s to lower 50s). Some of the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos may mix with wet snow Saturday night, but little to no accumulation is expected. The rain showers will persist into Saturday evening, before gradually tapering off from west to east late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This will result in mainly dry conditions for the second half of the weekend with high temperatures rebounding into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Rainfall totals on Saturday through Saturday night will range between 1.00"-1.25" for Northeast PA to as far north as the Finger Lakes Region, with lower amounts (mostly 0.50" or less) along and north of the NY Thruway Corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Monday still looks like a pleasant day across the region with high pressure in control. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the 60s. The next low pressure system has continued to trend slightly slower, with an increasing chance of another round of rain showers starting late in the day Tuesday or even Tuesday night. Unsettled weather will likely continue Wednesday and perhaps through the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Conditions will be VFR until at least 09z Saturday. Then early Saturday morning, rain will begin to move in from the west and spread eastward throughout the morning hours. Short range guidance are showing pop-up showers prior to 06z but with coverage quite scattered, confidence is too low to include rain at any one terminal prior to the more widespread showers expected. Ceilings will gradually fall from VFR to IFR by mid to late morning at AVP, BGM, ELM, and ITH. SYR and RME will be at the edge of any ceiling restrictions but cannot be ruled out by the end of the TAF period. With the rain, visibilities will also be reduced.

There are some gusts being observed in the region though guidance is struggling to pick up on this. Gusts around 15 kts are expected at AVP, BGM, and ELM this afternoon. There will be a brief period of light and variable winds this evening before winds settle out of the east-southeast overnight. As the rain approaches, winds will pick up with gusts of 15 to 20 kts.

Outlook:

Saturday through Saturday night...Rain showers and associated restrictions expected as a low pressure system passes through. IFR or lower likely at ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP at times.

Sunday Morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.