textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1)An unusually strong low pressure system for Junes passes northeast of the region today. This system will bring showers, thunderstorms and a lot of wind. Greatest chance for widespread showers and storms will be early afternoon.

3) High pressure pushes in on Friday with cooler and drier conditions through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A highly anomalous low pressure system tracks north and east of the region today. Current model guidance indicates the central pressure may fall to around 988 mb, which is approximately five standard deviations below normal for this time of year. This unusually strong system will bring a tight pressure gradient across the region, with a cold front moving through mid day. As a result, strong winds are expected across the area, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk farther west into central NY. Given the highly sheared environment, isolaed tornadoes are also possible, although damaging winds remain the primary hazard. A Tornado watch was issued ahead of the line as strong to severe thunderstorms with embedded tornadoes may develop through the early afternoon.

The line of showers and storms associated with the cold front is moving relatively quickly through the region, with the tornado threat expected to diminish after 3PM. This is a classic low-CAPE high shear environment driven largely by strong synoptic forcing. Consequently, any strong shower or thunderstorms that develops will have the potential to produce wind gusts exceeding 55 mph. Even outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain elevated throughout the day as the front pushes through and the pressure gradient strengthens. Wind Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM this evening for the Eastern Finger Lakes region and western Mohawk Valley, although strong gusts may also be possible outside the Advisory areas.

Behind the main line of showers and thunderstorms, CAMs guidance continues to indicate some isolated showers following the front late this afternoon. These lingering showers are not expected to be as impactful as the earlier line. As drier air filters into the region later this afternoon and evening, showers will gradually come to an end, although gusty winds will persist into the evening. High pressure will then build into the region tonight and continue into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

No major changes in the forecast for the end of the week and this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front for Friday. This will bring drier and cooler conditions through the weekend with low humidity. However, there will remain some upper troughing over the region, so can't rule out some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity around the peak heating hours of the afternoon. The next chance for widespread rain will come towards the beginning of next week. However, there remains to be a lot of run to run model inconsistency with this systems track and timing at this time. It is possible this system could miss most of our region completely depending on how the pattern unfolds in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A couple of stray showers may pass over SYR and RME. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected tonight. Guidance is showing some pop up showers Friday afternoon that develop between SYR and ITH. There is uncertainty if these would make it to ELM and BGM by the end of the TAF period. While confidence is low, tempo groups were added to SYR and ITH for showers and MVFR visibilities. MVFR ceilings are expected at SYR and RME overnight and into Friday morning. Guidance hints at Fuel Alt at RME as lower ceilings will linger there longer. There is some uncertainty on sky cover as MVFR ceilings may creep south into ITH as well.

While winds are expected to gradually become calmer this evening, they will stay gusty overnight with gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible at all terminals. Winds stay westerly tomorrow though peak gusts will be closer to 25 to 30 kts.

Outlook:

Friday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR, though isolated to scattered showers possible each afternoon with associated intermittent restrictions. Westerly wind gusts could exceed 20 knots Saturday afternoons.

Late Sunday night through Tuesday...Wave of low pressure with rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder. Rain chances decrease Tuesday but lingering showers will still be possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.