textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast with the afternoon forecast package, but did make the onset time of rain on Sunday a bit earlier compared to previous forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered lake effect rain showers will be present through Friday, mainly along and north of the New York Thruway corridor. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday night.

2) Remnant tropical moisture will result in rainy weather Sunday through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With a west-northwest flow and 850mb temperatures only around 4C over the warm Great Lakes, scattered lake effect rain showers have been present this afternoon, mainly along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. This pattern is expected to continue tonight right through Friday, with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Otherwise, it will be breezy both this afternoon and Friday afternoon with occasional gusts of 20-30 mph possible. Temperatures will be seasonable with lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs on Friday in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

One more rain-free day is expected on Saturday with high pressure in control. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The center of the remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias will move into the Ohio Valley on Sunday as the circulation begins to dissipate into an open wave. This tropical moisture will surge northeastward into our region on Sunday, especially Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible during this timeframe, but with the quick movement of this moisture, combined with dry antecedent conditions, the threat for flooding looks low at this time.

This moisture will depart the area on Monday, which will bring a return to mainly dry conditions. That being said, a few lingering light rain showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the morning. A frontal system may bring the next chance for rain showers by Tuesday, but timing and placement of this front is uncertain this far out.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR throughout the TAF period. Main concern will be strong west to northwest wind gusts Friday afternoon around 20 knots. Fog potential at KELM is decreasing for the upcoming overnight but still can not rule out some variability with the visibility around sunrise.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible in the morning hours.

Sunday through Monday...Showers with associated restrictions likely.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system looks to approach the region with showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.