textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts for Sunday have trended down slightly more than the previous update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A pleasant start to the weekend will get disrupted Sunday as a weak low pressure system moves through the region.

2) High pressure returns Tuesday though a quick moving frontal system moves through late Wednesday. Drier conditions then return late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure has brought a pleasant start to the weekend. Despite some scattered cloud cover, there is plenty of sunshine to go around. A couple models try to develop spotty showers this afternoon with a shortwave passing through New England, but confidence was too low to add PoPs as drier air will likely be too much to overcome. Southerly flow and increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures slightly more mild overnight. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and low 60s.

A weak low pressure system will approach the area early Sunday morning. Scattered showers develop ahead of this system by midday for portions of northeast PA and the Southern Tier. Shower chances will increase across the area during the afternoon, though coverage will be scattered, especially across central NY. With cloud cover quick to spread northward, instability will be limited. Still, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible. Mixing of stronger flow aloft will lead to gusts of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon and evening. Showers will continue through the overnight hours and into Monday morning as low-level moisture lingers behind the departing system. Peak PWAT values will be around 2 inches and warm cloud depths will exceed 10k feet. Most of model guidance keep the bulk of the precipitation south of the region as rainfall accumulations continue to trend down slightly. The best potential for heavy rainfall with localized totals of 1 inch or more is across the Wyoming Valley and into the Poconos. Fortunately, these areas have not seen as much rainfall recently compared to other areas in the region and flash flood guidance is high. While there may be some ponding and localized urban issues, confidence is low in widespread flash flooding so no watch was issued.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure returns on Tuesday and will stick around through early Wednesday. A cold front is quick to move through late Wednesday into Thursday morning with the next round of showers. While instability will be limited, afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. There is still some uncertainty on how quick these showers exit as high pressure builds back in on Thursday. Following the front, cooler air fills in and temperatures will be below average the rest of the week. High pressure will remain in control through at least the start of next weekend with most of the region expected to see a few days without rain. Some model guidance have a weak low that moves up the coast late in the week. If this system tracks close to the coastline, then there will be potential for showers to clip parts of the area.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure remains in control through tonight. VFR is expected to continue with scattered cumulus fields dissipating later this afternoon and evening. Layered clouds increase late tonight and Sunday morning ahead of an approaching warm front with ceilings lowering between 12Z-18Z. Expecting to see restrictions entering the forecast after 15Z with rain developing.

Outlook...

Sunday after 18Z...MVFR likely. IFR possible. Showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Monday...Becoming MVFR-VFR. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday night to Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with associated flight restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.