textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to this forecast. Conditions continue to trend favorable for a long duration lake effect event, with the first portion depicting a well organized, heavy band expected for Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties, where 1 to 2 feet of snow is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Near blizzard conditions are certainly possible in the winter storm warning counties at times overnight and into the day on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will move through the region this afternoon, brining increasing winds that will remain gusty through Tuesday.

2) A long duration lake effect snow event will develop tonight across north central NY and persist through Thursday. Strengthening winds will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with periods of reduced visibility and near blizzard conditions at times.

3) Cold and snowy weather continues through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Southwesterly flow this afternoon will shift to westerly by early evening as an upper level low tracks northeast of the region. As the night progresses, flow becomes west northwesterly, ushering in a colder air mass along with increasing winds behind the departing low. Temperatures will start to fall below freezing late afternoon into early evening from west to east. Showers will transition to snow late this afternoon and evening, continuing overnight before evolving to lake effect snow showers. Winds will strengthen behind the cold front as cold air advection takes place. The strongest wind gusts are expected from late afternoon through early evening with persistent gusts continuing through Tuesday, The NBM 90th percentile was utilized to better align with higher end wind gust potential indicated by model guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Lake effect snow showers will develop this evening, primarily across north central NY, where a long duration lake effect event begins tonight and continues through Thursday. A more organized band is expected to develop late tonight into Tuesday afternoon, with west northwest flow prevailing through much of the period and only minor oscillations in band orientation. Snowfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches per hour from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Model soundings indicate deep saturated moisture within the dendritic growth zone, along with favorable lift, supporting periods of heavy lake effect snow. Temperatures aloft fall to around -16 degrees C overnight and remain sufficiently cold through the end of the week. This, combined with persistent west northwest to westerly flow, will allow lake effect snow to continue through much of the week, with brief lulls possible as winds temporarily shift.

Snowfall totals remain consistent with 1 to 2 feet expected across portions of Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties, with locally higher amount possible. A winter storm warning for lake effect snow remains in effect for these areas, with winter weather advisories extending south of the warned region. Consideration was given to including southern Cayuga county in the warning, however, uncertainty remains regarding whether the primary band will shift far enough south to meet warning criteria. Heavy lake effect snow combined with strong gusty winds will result in widespread blowing and drifting snow, potentially producing blizzard like whiteout conditions at times. Additionally, another cold front moving through the region Wednesday night may bring the potential for snow squalls.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind the cold front, cold, northwest flow will support additional lake effect snow beginning Thursday and lasting through at least the first half of the weekend. Flow will then vary between west and northwest Friday and Saturday leading to the main band of lake of snow drifting north of the region at times. While it is too early to pinpoint exact snowfall totals, additional snowfall accumulations will be possible. As of now, guidance is not showing as favorable of a set up compared to what is expected early this week. Some drier air moves into the region Sunday though some light lake effect snow may linger into Sunday.

The second half of the week will be below normal for temperatures. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with highs only in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and low teens. Following Thursday, temperatures will then be slightly warmer but still chilly.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Scattered snow showers will impact our NY TAF sites this evening bringing occasional MVFR and even IFR conditions with the snow and blowing snow. Steadier lake effect snow bands are expected to develop overnight, with high confidence for IFR/LIFR conditions at SYR and RME. Moderate confidence for intermittent IFR restrictions at ITH and BGM in and around another NW to SE oriented lake effect snow band for much of the overnight and into Tuesday morning. ELM should see mainly MVFR lighter snow showers and flurries overnight. AVP will be mainly VFR, but can't rule out a few IFR snow showers even here overnight into Tuesday morning. Not high enough probability to go IFR in the TAF, but did include a tempo for MVFR conditions in snow showers Tuesday morning here.

Periods of lake effect snow continue to bring IFR/LIFR conditions to RME and SYR well into the day on Tuesday.

Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly overnight. Winds will remain gusty with peak gusts near or in excess of 30 to 40 kts right into the day on Tuesday as well.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Winds remain gusty but gradually diminish. Restrictive lake effect snow showers, especially KSYR-KRME but at least occasionally the other NY terminals. KSYR-KRME may have combination of heavy snow and blowing snow at times, with below 1 mile visibility.

Wednesday...Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers for mainly the NY terminals, but cannot rule out some showers making it south to KAVP.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions possible behind a cold front that brings snow showers to the region. Limited to mainly KSYR- KRME by Friday and Saturday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044- 047-048-072. NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009-018- 036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ017- 044>046. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ022.