textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Light snow accumulations are expected today and tonight as a weak system moves through. Cold Canadian air remains in place through the weekend, with lake effect snow showers Sunday. Another clipper system brings additional snow showers Monday. Milder conditions develop by midweek, with rising temperatures and chances for rain and snow later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Southwesterly flow will persist this morning, allowing for a brief dry period before the next system approaches. An upper level low over the western Great Lakes will begin digging northeastward through the day, strengthening the southwesterly flow and advecting showers into central NY ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures aloft remain cold, around -10 degrees C, while surface temperatures rise into the upper 20s to low 30s this afternoon. Despite marginal surface temperatures precipitation is expected to fall as snow. Light accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are expected for most areas, with locally higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible across northern Oneida county. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this system is expected this evening into tonight as the cold front moves through the area. Additional snowfall amounts of up to an inch are expected across central NY, with 1 to 3 inches possible across northeast PA. Overnight temperatures will fall into the upper single digits to teens.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Much colder air settles in behind the front with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -18 degrees C by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will remain well below average, generally in the upper teens to lower 20s. West to northwest flow will advect this frigid air mass across the Great Lakes, supporting lake effect snow showers through Sunday. A passing trough axis late Sunday afternoon will further enhance lake effect activity. Given the wind direction and model guidance, lake effect bands may also develop off the Finger Lakes. Overall, light snowfall accumulations are expected, with a few tenths of an inch across most of the area. Locally higher amounts up to around an inch are possible across the eastern finger lakes region. Lake effect snow showers will continue overnight into Monday as temperatures fall into the single digits to lower teens. Another clipper system is expected to track across Ontario on Monday, with light snow likely developing during the afternoon in response to warm advection ahead of the system. Moisture with this clipper system appears limited outside of lake effect regions, however, an additional 1 to 2 inches of snowfall remains possible by Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Lake effect snow showers may linger behind the departing system though Tuesday afternoon, primarily across north central NY. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the broader pattern begins to transition as flow becomes more zonal with a developing southwesterly component.This shift will support a warming trend through the end of the week. Embedded shortwave disturbances within the zonal flow will periodically move through the region. With day time temperatures rising above freezing and nighttime lows falling below freezing Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation type during this period will be variable.At this time, Thursday appears to be the warmest day of the period, with highs reaching the lower to mid 40s. This warmth will be short lived, as another system approaches from the west Thursday night into Friday. The initial phase of this system is expected to bring rain showers, transitioning to snow by early Friday morning. Model guidance begins to diverge towards the end of the forecast period, however the overall pattern appears to remain active through Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A fast moving front will bring snow showers and flurries from near ITH, north to SYR and RME...likely starting around 14z or 15z this morning. ITH will be right on the southern edge of the snow shower activity, so confidence in restrictions is lower here. Added in a tempo MVFR restriction here from 14-18z today to cover this potential. SYR and RME are expected to see some steadier light snow, with IFR restrictions (VSBYs) between about 14-18z or 19z today. The snow showers activity is then expected to slide off and exit to the southeast of these two taf sites between 19-22z this afternoon. After this timeframe, a return to VFR conditions is expected for RME and SYR (moderate confidence).

Further south, ELM and BGM are expected to see MVFR CIGs much of the day today, starting at 15z, with higher confidence at BGM. No snow is expected, other than some brief flurries or a stray snow showers, as the bulk of the activity remains north of these two southern tier of NY terminals.

The next round of snow then moves in from the southwest, right around 01z this evening, quickly overspreading AVP and BGM. As the light snow moves in, IFR restrictions are expected at these two terminals; mainly from 01-06z, and it could linger longer at AVP. Further northwest, ELM is expected to also see light snow arrive around 01z Sunday, with enough confidence to show lower end MVFR vsbys here. ITH will have MVFR vsby restrictions and even tempo IFR between about 02-06z Sunday. Conditions gradually lift and become VFR from NW to SE in the predawn hours early Sunday morning, as the snow exits the area.

Expect light south winds early this morning, turning southwest and eventually west-southwest and increasing (8-18kts) through the day today. Winds turn west and decrease under 8 kts this evening.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Occasional restrictions with a period of scattered snow showers. Highest coverage shifts to KITH,KELM and KBGM later Sunday and Sunday night.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Potential frontal passage with rain showers and minor restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.