textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased temperatures early this morning and lowered snow amounts. Lingered sprinkles and flurries into tonight and early Monday morning. Also increased tonight's forecast low temperatures, again due to expected overcast conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain and snow showers will be around through the day, before tapering off to a few lingering sprinkles or flurries overnight into early Monday morning.

2) High pressure builds into the area resulting in drier and warmer weather for the upcoming week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Continued northwest flow with 850mb temperatures holding around -5C today will allow scattered lake effect rain and snow showers to persist this morning. The showers gradually taper off and decrease in coverage this afternoon as it starts to slowly warm aloft. Surface temperatures will remain at or above freezing for most locations early this morning so snow amounts were lowered with this update. Most locations won't see any accumulation. A coating to perhaps 1 inch of snow is possible for the higher hilltops of Central NY; mainly in Cortland, Madison and northern Chenango counties. Temperatures gradually rise into the upper 30s to mid-40s this afternoon. Tonight's low temperature forecast was increased, into the low to mid-30s for most locations. The lake effect cloud cover will remain widespread through the night, helping to keep the temperatures more elevated.

The 850mb ridge axis does not pass through our area until Monday night. Therefore, we remain locked in the cool, cloudy northwest flow pattern on Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see pockets of drizzle lingering into Monday under the thick stratus cloud deck. Temperatures remain cool only in the 40's on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Tuesday through Sunday: General upper level ridging remains over the eastern US. There could be a very weak disturbance or front passing through Thursday night or Friday. Otherwise, high pressure looks to remain in control right through Saturday (if current timing holds). By Sunday, a more well defined cold front will begin to approach the area from the west. Some guidance keeps it slower and back to the west, leading to one more very mild day in the upper 50s to low 60s. We will have to keep an eye on the timing of this frontal feature.

Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend through the week, reaching about 15 degrees above average for daytime highs by Friday through Sunday (50's and low 60's). With the generally clear skies and light winds, overnight lows will be on the seasonably cool side, mainly in the 30's through the week. Overall a very pleasant and fair stretch of late fall weather looks to be in store.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A persistent low stratus deck will continue to bring widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions through the large majority of the current TAF period (at least through 12Z Monday). Brief improvements to VFR are possible this afternoon (especially at KAVP), but otherwise MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions are expected to persist.

Outlook...

Monday...Lingering low clouds will likely result in continued MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions, especially in the morning.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.