textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Nor'easter will continue to bring gusty winds and rain showers to the region this weekend and into early next week. The strongest winds are expected tonight into Sunday.

2) High pressure builds into the region Tuesday with quiet weather then expected until rain returns late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The Nor'easter continues to spin well off the coast with its outer bands of rain extending into northeast PA and central NY. Periods of off-and-on rain showers are expected this afternoon and evening, especially for areas east of I-81 in NY and most of northeast PA. Along with rain showers, winds will become more gusty beginning this afternoon. Over the next 24 hours, this storm system will inch closer to the coast and briefly move inland on Sunday, somewhere over Long Island and New Jersey. As it does, rain will become more widespread and the strongest winds will occur late tonight and into Sunday. Conditions will improve throughout the day on Monday as the low moves up the the coast. Winds become calm and showers come to an end Monday night.

With a tight pressure gradient around the low, strong 850mb flow above with potential for mixing, and some higher gusts already observed south of the region, sustained winds and gusts were both increased. Winds were a blend of the NBM and NBM 90th percentile while the gusts are NBM 90th percentile. Even with these adjustments, wind advisory criteria was not met. While there is potential for advisory-level gusts in higher elevations based on HREF probabilities, confidence was too low for an advisory at any given forecast zone. The low begins to weaken Sunday night into Monday but breezy conditions may persist until the moves away from the region Monday night.

As showers move west, they are having to overcome drier air initially. In general, rain showers will be light though some brief periods of moderate rainfall will also be possible, especially as PWATs increases with the system moving closer to shore. This update used a blend of guidance for QPF amounts as the latest NBM was slightly lower than before despite some guidance showing higher totals along eastern areas of our CWA. Solutions from the RFCs and WPC were also factored in. This resulted in total QPF through Sunday night amounting to less than inch for most areas with notably higher amounts in portions of northeast PA and the Catskills where localized amounts will exceed an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will build into the region by Tuesday and bring a stretch of quieter conditions. Some guidance show some light showers kicking off behind the departing low as weak waves move through. There is uncertainty of wraparound moisture will even extend that far west as drier air will simultaneously move in from the east. For now, this updated leaned toward the majority of guidance and NBM with dry conditions for Tuesday. Weak ridging, peaks of sunshine, and southwest to westerly flow will help bump up the temperatures midweek with daytime highs in the 70s.

These pleasant conditions will only last a few days as rain looks to return late in the week. While models differ on the timing and set up, a boundary will extend from the Midwest into the Northeast with showers along it. Where this boundary sets up will determine the coverage of showers and if conditions dry out in time to start next weekend. Given the uncertainty, this forecast will maintain low chance PoPs late in the week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A Nor'easter off the coast of NY/NJ will continue to provide for a mixture of mid and high clouds this evening into tonight. Cloud heights will lower some from northwest to southeast, closer to the coastal system, but mainly VFR flight conditions are expected through the overnight period. A few showers can't be ruled out for southern and easter terminals, with the best chance for showers expected to remain at KAVP; where tempo MVFR visibility restrictions may occur through about 04z. Winds will continue out of the north-northeast between 5-15 kts overnight, increasing Sunday morning, with gusts between 15-25 kts through the day.

Sunday, flight categories will continue to degrade from southeast to northwest through the morning as the Nor'easter continues to retrograde to the coast and then inland some. Showers will continue to expand in coverage across the area and cloud bases will lower. Widespread MVFR with periods of IFR flight categories can be expected through the end of this TAF period. Lowering CIGs will result in widespread IFR conditions later in the day on Sunday into Sunday evening. Gusty winds up to around 25 kts will continue through most of the day with northerly winds shifting toward the northeast later in the day.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...A few lingering rain showers and lower ceiling heights resulting in mainly IFR flight conditions.

Monday through Monday night...showers will continue with IFR ceilings and possible reductions to VSBY at times as well in showers.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR after morning IFR restrictions on Tuesday. Morning fog in the favorable areas will be possible, causing localized restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.