textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and warm weather returns today.

2) A low pressure system will bring numerous showers and a chance for a few strong thunderstorms on Tuesday.

3) A deep upper trough may move through the region to end the week, bringing rain and the possibility for the first snow showers of the season.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

The rain has push out overnight and ridging builds into the area today with dry and warmer conditions. Mostly cloudy skies will likely linger into the afternoon, however high temperatures are still expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The pattern will remain active this week with the system impacting the region on Tuesday. A low pressure system is forecast to track eastward across the Great Lakes into Ontario as the day progresses. Warm SW flow out ahead of this system will push high temperatures well into the 70s by Tuesday afternoon with upper 70s possible west of the I81 corridor. This will allow for instability to increase out ahead of the approaching cold front, producing a chance for strong thunderstorms west of I-81. Current indices look decent for mid OCtober with CAPE of 750-1200 J/kg, and 35-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear. However, uncertainty for thunderstorm coverage and intensity is still high at this time, as the models continue to have differences in timing and location of the low.

Behind this system, high pressure is expected to build back in, but with zonal flow aloft expected through the week. This will allow for potential a few weak short waves to bring more chances for isolated showers Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Our next big system looks to be Thursday night through Friday, followed by a deep upper trough settling over the Northeast U.S. this weekend. Widespread rain showers will be possible again Thursday night through Friday as a fast moving low pressure system crosses the region. This system will be followed by a deep upper trough/low diving into the area from central Canada.

This trough has been modeled somewhat consistently between most of the major global models, so confidence continues to increase for unsettled conditions this weekend. T850 could dip as low as -10C over Central NY on Saturday as cold air advection takes hold on NW flow. Lake America water temperatures are quite warm, ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s. Such a large difference in air and water temperatures should produce a decent lake response and our first lake effect snow event of the season is possible if this forecast pattern takes shape.

This will certainly be something to watch over the coming days, especially because it is very early in the season. Any snow accumulation this early is rare, but with trees still mostly covered in leaves, any snowfall greater than a couple of inches could cause major issues. This is still 6 days away, so changes in the forecast are likely over the coming days and the details can be more fine-tuned in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue impacting all terminals for the majority of the forecast period. There will be a slow improvement of conditions through the daytime hours, with the majority of terminals improving to VFR by the evening. RME and SYR is expected to remain below VFR conditions towards the end of the 06z TAF period as the last remaining extension of what was Isaias continues moving slowly to the northeast.

Outlook...

Monday night...A mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions with weak high pressure passing well to the south of the area. Some showers may be close to the western terminals by daybreak on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system approaches the region with showers and a slight chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

Friday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.