textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter weather advisory issued for all of Northeast PA, Catskills, Mohawk Valley and Central Southern Tier of NY Tuesday into Tuesday night. This was issued for a coating to and inch of snow, along with generally light glazes of ice.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and cold this evening into tonight with increasing clouds.

2) A system will bring snow and a wintry mix to the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, transitioning to rain for the valley locations.

3) Spring-like conditions are expected for the remainder of the week, weekend and into early next week with above normal temperatures and multiple chances for rain showers. The potential for ice jams and flooding will increase near the end of the week and especially over the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Skies will stay clear for most of the night (through at least midnight) leading to good radiational cooling. Clouds do increase from SW to NE after midnight into the predawn hours.

Temperatures were lowered below most guidance and as a result, lows are expected to be in the teens and low 20s. A few locations across northern Oneida county will see single digits. With light south winds overnight, wind chills will only be slightly lower than temperatures. The high pressure will slide out to sea tonight as the next system approaches from the south. Cloud cover will begin to increase ahead of this system late tonight. A few stray snow showers cannot be ruled out, but the main wintry mix event will hold off until after sunrise Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned system will push in from the south Tuesday morning. Precipitation will spread from south to north throughout the morning and midday hours. This system will bring a wintry mix to the region, though exact precipitation types remain uncertain. It should start as light snow for most of the area, except light freezing rain across Steuben county. Some sleet, freezing rain and rain begin mixing in elsewhere by early afternoon as temperatures aloft hover near 0C at 850mb. Surface temperatures were lowered from the the NBM output, nudging toward the colder 3km NAM solution as the cold wedge remains in place and wet bulbing pushes temperatures down toward the colder dew points. Most of the urban valley/lower elevation locations will likely hover above freezing in the mid to perhaps upper 30s Tuesday afternoon and evening with plain rain showers around. However, the higher elevations of Steuben County, the Catskills and Poconos look to hover in the lower 30s with pockets of freezing rain continuing; the Mohawk Valley may also hold in the lower 30s much of the time. This is where the best potential to see another round of light icing will be heading into Tuesday evening and night as we lose the influence of the stronger March sun. Ice totals could be up to a tenth or two-tenths of an inch for the higher elevations of the Catskills, with a light glaze elsewhere (especially advisory locations). The precipitation will end fairly quickly from NW to SE Tuesday night, with conditions likely drying out before daybreak Wednesday areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

It will begin to feel more like spring the rest of the week as temperatures trend warmer and there are multiple chances for rain showers. High pressure will build over the area on Wednesday, bringing dry, partly sunny and mild weather with highs ranging from the 40s north to mid-50s south.

Showers push back in from the south/southwest later Wednesday night along a warm front. The rain could even mix with some spotty freezing rain in the normally colder locations well northeast of Binghamton, toward the Mohawk Valley and Southern Tug Hill plateau, but uncertainty remains on if the showers will track that far north.

The warm front will remain across the area on Thursday, with increasing chances for showers, especially late in the day. A wave of low pressure is progged to track along the stationary warm front Thursday night, right across our forecast area, bringing Categorical PoPs for rain and even a slight chance for thunderstorms. The low will be sliding east on Friday, with conditions dry out through the day, with even some partial clearing in the afternoon...especially western areas. It will be very warm along and west of I-81 with highs potentially reaching the mid-50s to lower 60s here. Further east, it will be stuck a bit cooler in the 40s to low 50s.

A surge of warm air moves in behind a warm front late in the week, leading to temperatures well into the 60s for most locations on Saturday. A cold front soon follows though and looks to stall out, but exactly where remains uncertain. This stalled front would support rain showers throughout most of the weekend, with slightly cooler readings in the upper 50s to mid-60s on Sunday. Remaining very warm right into early next week, with highs likely staying in the 60s Monday, Tuesday and perhaps even warmer next Wednesday.

As it has been discussed, we will need to monitor the rivers and streams for any ice jams and minor flooding late this week and into the weekend. The warm up will be gradual but adding rain to the mixture will accelerate snowpack melting and lead to runoff.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR ceilings are possible at AVP early this morning. Elsewhere, conditions will be VFR until around 12z. A system will move in with mixed precipitation this morning. The onset will be mainly snow but as temperatures warm up, snow will mix with other precipitation types. Any potential for freezing rain and/or sleet will be brief as precipitation becomes mainly just rain this afternoon and evening. Precipitation will gradually end from north to south after 02z Wednesday.

With this system, ceilings and visibility restrictions are expected. Conditions will initially be MVFR/Fuel Alt but will quickly fall into IFR/LIFR. Despite precipitation moving out for some prior to the end of the TAF period, restrictions will linger longer.

Southerly winds will be light at 5 to 10 kts though some gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible this afternoon at some terminals. Tonight, winds become light and variable. Guidance is showing some low-level wind shear at AVP, so that was included from 17 to 23z.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Saturday...Multiple chances for rain and associated restrictions throughout the week.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ038-039-043-044-047. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ040-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ022. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ037-046. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ057-062.