textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Upgraded Madison and Southern Oneida counties to a Lake Effect Snow warning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow continues through Saturday off of Lake Ontario.

2) A chance for several clipper systems to bring light snow and some mixed precipitation; one Saturday night and a couple more Monday and Wednesday.

3) Temperatures gradually rise late next week with gradual melting of snowpack.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The main lake effect snow band has wobbled a bit south for most of the day. This has increased the forecast totals slightly to the south of the previous forecast with more locations looking to end up around 6-10 inches in portions of Western Oneida and northern Madison counties. The exact cutoff with the lake effect snowfall totals still looks to be very sharp. A favorable environment continues to be in place for high ratios and fluffy snowfall with good lift through the snow growth in the main band. Wind direction is expecting to start varying a bit during the day Saturday which should slowly break up the band.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A series of weak northwest flow systems/clippers should move through the region. The first one looks to be Saturday night with a round of snow showers bringing a fresh coating of snow. More uncertainity is present with the chance for snow showers Monday as it encounters a stronger high pressure system. The one change is with the Tuesday night and Wednesday night system as model guidance trending away from a freezing rain profile and more toward a rain/snow mix.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures gradually warm with highs getting into the 40's by Thursday and Friday. Additional rain showers should occur at times. The rainfall does not look heavy at this time and the gradual temperature rise should prevent a rapid snowmelt too, at least through Friday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A band of steady lake effect snow will be situated right between KSYR and KRME for at least the early part of this afternoon. As a result, initially both terminals will likely have MVFR restrictions and possibly even briefly VFR. However, by the mid-late afternoon, IFR visby restrictions are expected to once again move in at these two terminals; likely first at KRME, then KSYR and likely remain that way through most of the night tonight (especially this evening). Conditions are expected to gradually improve by early Saturday morning back to MVFR.

Elsewhere, light snow and low clouds will bring occasional MVFR restrictions this afternoon, before returning to VFR this evening. A deck of MVFR clouds may move in at KITH and KBGM by the late morning on Saturday. There is a bit of uncertainty at KAVP for this afternoon. While some light snow showers are possible at times, these may not be steady enough to produce any restrictions. That being said, cannot completely rule out a brief steadier snow shower there that may result in brief MVFR visby restrictions (although this was left out of the TAF for now due to low confidence).

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Lake effect snow showers will diminish, but lingering MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected at the Central NY terminals.

Saturday night into Sunday...Another potential clipper can bring additional snow showers overnight with lake effect snow showers during the day on Sunday. Restrictions likely.

Monday...Another clipper system may bring snow showers and associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...A low chance of rain/snow showers and possible restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009- 018-036-037.