textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to cloud cover, rain and thunder chances heading into this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track through the upcoming week with very little change in the latest guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few lingering showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected into the early evening hours, mainly in NE PA. Comfortable conditions settle in tonight into Sunday with low humidity.

2) A large upper level ridge of high pressure brings hot and dry conditions to the area early to mid week. A front likely brings temperatures back down closer to normal by the end of the upcoming workweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A shortwave trough will be dropping down from the north this afternoon and evening. As this feature moves in, current mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the NY/PA border region down into NE PA. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have already developed, with more activity likely to slowly drop south into the Wyoming Valley and Poconos before sunset (4-8PM). Shear is relatively low, with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear noted on the latest 18z mesoanalysis. A few storms could become strong, with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours. PWATs are 1.3 inches across Luzerne county, but should be slowly falling into the evening hours as drier air advects in from the north. Any showers or thunderstorm activity looks to shift south and exit our CWA by 9-10 PM at the latest.

It should be quiet overnight, with mostly clear skies and some patchy valley fog (especially across NE PA). It will be comfortable with lows in the 50s to lower 60s expected. Sunday will be dry and mostly sunny under high pressure. Humidity will be lower and temperatures will reach well into the 80s across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A building heat dome over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes starts to expand and shift east late Monday into Tuesday with 500mb heights rising to around 594dm Tuesday afternoon. Skies will be sunny under the upper level ridge and dew points look to mix out into the low and mid 60s for both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. This should allow daytime highs to surge up into the upper 80s to mid 90s. This will be close to daily record highs, and be about 10-15 degrees above average for mid-July. Max heat indices could be close to heat advisory criteria for portions of the area, especially Tuesday afternoon, these trends will be monitored closely in the coming days. The core of the truly extreme heat looks to remain just west of our area. A trough and NW flow develops by Wednesday across the Northeast and persists into late week. Initially drier air will advect in on the NW flow, and temperatures will remain very warm to hot on Wednesday. Dew points fall even lower on Wednesday, between 55 to 60F in the afternoon. This will keep conditions sunny and dry on Wednesday

As heights and thicknesses continue to fall Thursday and Friday in the developing upper level trough, temperatures slide back down into the 80s for most locations for late week. The weather looks to remain dry Tuesday through Thursday. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms reenters the forecast for Friday and Saturday as moisture and instability gradually builds.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A few showers are trying to make their way into AVP this evening, but otherwise it is looking VFR for all sites. ELM and ITH have dried out this afternoon so the fog chances were removed as odds have decreased over the last few hours.

Outlook:

Sunday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; Patchy, morning fog possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.