textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes needed with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another slug of heavy rain will push through the region tonight into Monday morning.

2) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry through the remainder of the week, as northerly flow develops with average to slightly below average temperatures possibly by the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

More widespread moderate to heavy rain will push through the region tonight. A shortwave coupled with being in the right entrance region of a jet max moves overhead late tonight and triggers the redevelopment of rain showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms. Latest model guidance is showing some elevated instability and this could bring enhanced rainfall rates tonight. After yesterday's rain the ground is saturated and if heavy rainfall sets up tonight in some of our more flash flood prone areas, then some minor hydro problems could arise.

Dry air filters in out of the NW behind this shortwave Memorial Day morning, with showers tapering off from west to east by mid to late morning. Sunshine also returns and temperatures warm up in time for outdoor activities Memorial Day afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are still advertising a large Omega block setting up across the US, with a trough in the Intermountain West, a large ridge in the central US into Canada, and a trough in New England. This pattern will cut off moisture advection from the gulf into our area, so this week is looking mostly dry. Given the NW flow and heading into summer time, there is a chance of a few isolated storms in the afternoons with the development of instability. However, the lack of low level moisture should limit shower chances with only a chance for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models are still hinting at a pocket of cold air descending down the edge of the ridge into the Northeast U.S. towards the end of the week. Hopefully this will set up further east of our area, but nonetheless it will need to be watched as it could lead to areas of frost overnight by the end of the week and into next weekend. There remains a large ensemble spread in 500 mb heights towards the end of the week, so expect changes to the forecast in the coming days as models try to get a grip on how the pattern will unfold.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered showers continue to lift to the north and east this morning and are expected to taper off from southwest to northeast from late morning into the early afternoon. The showers can produce very brief IFR visby. restrictions through about 14Z-15Z. Model guidance is currently too aggressive with restrictions at several of the terminals, and there is concern that this is the case going through the afternoon hours when there will be a lull between batches of rain. As a result, some slight improvement to ceiling restrictions are in the forecast, especially after 16Z-18Z with occasional bouts of VFR possible, mainly around SYR, ITH, ELM and AVP.

Another batch of rain moves in from the west this evening, generally after 02Z. There could be some elevated convection embedded in this next batch of rain that can lead to locally heavy downpours and IFR restrictions into the overnight, which have been covered via PROB30 groups at the terminals.

Outlook:

Monday morning...Scattered showers/fog tapering off with gradual improving conditions.

Monday Afternoon...Clearing with VFR conditions expected.

Monday Night...Patchy fog with associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.