textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers expected through the day today for mainly the Catskills and areas in Northeast Pennsylvania. High pressure builds in tomorrow, with quiet weather expected midweek. A frontal system will bring the next round of rain late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With the main system that brought the area rain today will continue to weaken today, with scattered rain showers expected mainly for the Catskills and NE PA. Additional rainfall amounts are only expected to be a tenth to a quarter inch. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected today as well, with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure will slowly build into the region behind the departing system tonight. Winds will become calm, and with model soundings showing low-level moisture in addition to any moisture added from recent rainfall, this will likely lead to widespread fog and/or low stratus tonight into Tuesday morning.

High pressure will continue to build into the region on Tuesday, bringing a stretch of quieter weather conditions through midweek. Southwest to westerly flow will advect in much warmer air and push daytime highs into the 70s. Valley locations may even reach 80 on Thursday.

Rain will return late in the week, though there remains uncertainty with timing. A broad low pressure system will set up over Canada. A frontal system will extend from the low all the way back into the Midwest. This frontal system will push in as early as Thursday night and move through on Friday. While there are some timing differences, model guidance favor high pressure building in early Saturday behind this front's departure which would favor a dry yet cooler start to the weekend. High pressure will stick around into Sunday though just how long it can delay the arrival of the next system remains uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Scattered rain showers will continue through the morning, with IFR restrictions expected at AVP/BGM/ITH. Restrictions should climb to Fuel Alt by the late afternoon as the rain showers become more isolated and the Nor'easter moves off to the NE. There will be an abundance of low level moisture that should lead to widespread IFR/LIFR restrictions tonight across most terminals. Some uncertainty remains at a few terminals in regards to the IFR tonight. Wind direction at AVP and SYR may keep ceilings from falling to IFR. SYR may see some clearing which could allow fog to develop, but confidence in this turning to IFR is too low at this time to include in the TAF.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR after morning IFR restrictions on Tuesday. Morning fog in the favorable areas will be possible, causing localized restrictions.

Friday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions. Moderate confidence.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.