textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and more humid with showers through Thursday.

2) Pleasant weather for Friday through most of Saturday.

3) A more active pattern returns starting later Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Increasing humidity and temperatures are expected through Thursday with a warm front crossing just north of the area earlier in the day. Within this warmer and more humid airmass a few scattered showers will be possible through tonight, but forcing is limited for any more organized activity. Showers will increase in coverage starting early Thursday morning as both a weak sfc low and cold front approach and cross the region through the day. With PWat values increasing close to 2.00 inches during the day Thursday, heavier downpours will be possible with showers and thunderstorms that develop with increasing instability. The greatest potential for thunderstorms is expected for the southwestern portions of the area, where some slightly better instability is expected. Showers will end from west to east during the first half of the evening hours Thursday as the cold front associated with the system tracks east across the area. Temperatures ahead of this cold front will warm to the mid 70s, with some upper 70s to near 80 possible for areas where there maybe more breaks in the showers and clouds.

Rainfall amounts on Thursday are expected to range from around a third to half an inch, with some locally higher amounts possible with thunderstorms that develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the passing cold front late Thursday, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the region. High pressure will track southeast across Canada and into New England Friday through Saturday. This will result in mostly sunny/clear skies Friday into early Saturday morning. With the cooler airmass associated with the sfc high, temperatures for both Friday and Saturday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s.

Clouds will start to increase on Saturday afternoon ahead of the next approaching system. More on that below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Showers will make a return to the region starting Saturday evening as a sfc low tracks out of the Tennessee Valley, northeast to the mid-Atlantic coast through the day on Sunday. This sfc low will pull moisture north as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There is still some uncertainty on the track of the sfc low and timing of the rain overall with the sfc high over the region earlier in the weekend providing some resistance to the incoming low. However, with that said the potential for widespread rainfall for most of Sunday is possible. Rain/showers will taper off Sunday evening.

Forecast guidance is not in the best agreement for the potential for showers from Monday onward next week, with at least the chance for showers each day from at least one model. This is just an indicator that drier weather is less likely for next week at this far out.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A few pockets of MVFR ceilings across the region this evening. All terminals should lower to MVFR in a couple of hours as stratus clouds move over the area.

Guidance has continued to increase probabilities for fog with IFR and lower restrictions over the past several model runs. Given the rain showers today and high humidity currently at the surface combined with expected light to calm winds at and above the surface, confidence is high enough to include IFR and lower restrictions at all NY terminals tonight. AVP is expected to remain VFR.

Rain showers should push into the area after sunrise as a small low pressure system moves through the area. The track and timing of this low remains somewhat uncertain as high res model runs have not been consistent over the past several hours. There may be a few showers that move through the area between 08Z and 11Z but confidence is not very high. We should start seeing widespread rain showers after 12z, with IFR restrictions holding on into the early afternoon hours for CNY terminals. Conditions are forecast to lift to MVFR/Fuel Alt for the afternoon hours with scattered rain showers remaining through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night...Patchy fog expected to develop, with IFR restrictions possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.