textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Pleasant conditions continue through midweek, though passing showers are expect Tuesday for portions of Central NY.

2) A frontal system will bring rain to the region Thursday. Additional disturbances will keep rain around through the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure will help keep pleasant conditions around through mid-week. The exception will be on Tuesday as was warm front lifts north of the region. The short-range guidance such as the NAMNest and other HREF members continue to show scattered showers from early Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours. The longer- range models either keep the region dry or have showers across the far northern areas. With this much uncertainty, PoPs were increased from the NBM solution with help from Conshort and manual adjustments. As a result, there are slight chance PoPs across Central NY, mainly north of the Southern Tier. Model soundings show a pocket of dry air near the surface, so precipitation is expected to be light.

Otherwise, an upper ridge builds into the region. Southwesterly flow will advect in warmer air, allowing temperatures to trend warmer through Wednesday. Under sunny skies, 70s return for daytime highs for the majority of the region on Wednesday. Nightly temperatures will be mild as well with lows in the 40s and 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The latter half of the week will become more active as multiple disturbances bring rain to the region. A low pressure system over the Midwest will propagate into the Great Lakes region. As it does, this will push a front through with rain moving in early Thursday morning. Unlike previous model runs, the front moves through quickly as the coastal low that was once present now develops further out at sea. With this system, PWATs will be 1.2 to 1.5 inches, which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Instability will be limited but with higher shear present, a few thunderstorms may be possible. Despite this, hydro concerns are minimal as this front is quick to move through following an extended dry period. If there were to be any ponding, it will likely be due to leaf litter clogging up drains.

A slot of dry air fills in behind the front. However, an upper level trough is trailing this system and will support additional showers Friday and Saturday as wraparound moisture nudges in from the north. While there is some uncertainty on how long the showers will last, surface high pressure returns for the second half of the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. 15k-25k foot clouds today/tonight will lower to near 5k ft for Tuesday morning/afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.