textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased PoPs across the area with NW flow off the lakes and sunshine initiating scattered convective snow showers. Also increased winds for today and Sunday while lowering dewpoints.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold today with scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries across Central NY. Warmth increases Sunday and Monday with dry conditions in place as high pressure sits overhead.

2) Showers return for much of next week as multiple low pressure systems track across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and New England. A chance of thunderstorms returns for Tuesday with locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

NW flow continues CAA advection today. A weak wave propagating through the flow combined with lake and synoptic moisture and afternoon sunshine has kicked off convective popcorn snow showers across the region. Accumulations are not expected this afternoon as the late March sun angle bringing strong radiation will keep any snow that falls from sticking. Winds will also be gusty with some of these showers, with gusts up to 30mph possible into the evening hours. Snow showers should become more isolated late this afternoon as we loose surface heating, with areas closer to the lakes having snow stick around the longest. Temperatures this afternoon will be cold, with many places hovering around freezing.

Snow will dissipate by the evening, with a few hours of quiet weather before another weak wave riding the NE portion of a mid level ridge building into the area brings another round of light snow showers to the northern Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley and Oneida county. Accumulations will be very light, with a trace to a few tenths of an inch possible. Snow should move east of the area around sunrise. The ridge axis will slide east of the area by Sunday morning, bringing SW flow back to the area and advecting in some much welcomed warmer air. Warm and dry conditions are expected for Sunday thru much of Monday. Winds will be active Sunday afternoon as isobars stack up across the area. Sustained winds of 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph will be possible. This will also help mix out surface moisture, keeping dewpoints low and helping to warm the air quicker. Temps will climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s during the afternoon. Sunday night lows remain warm, with mid 30s to low 40s expected across much of the area.

Monday will see continued WAA, pushing temps into the mid 50s to low 60s. Guidance is pointing to some rain showers developing late Monday ahead of a warm front pushing into the area from the SW. Timing of the rain remains uncertain, but guidance is trending towards onset sometime in the evening hours. Monday night will see continued WAA with extremely warm lows, as values will only fall into the mid 40s to low 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An active weather pattern will set up across the US for much of the weak as a trough develops over the western US and the Bermuda high slides eastward, allowing the Gulf to open and moisture flow into the central US.

Confidence continues to increase for showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure passes to the north. Most of our area is expected to be well into the warm sector south of a front on Tuesday. Model soundings show abundant moisture, (PWATs in the 1.0-1.5 range) with little CAPE available thanks to morning clouds and rain. General thunder seems possible, however deep convection looks to remain west of the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SSW flow continues to advect deep moisture into the area Tuesday night into Wed ahead of an approaching cold front. The frontal passage is expected to occur sometime Wednesday morning, but how far south the front moves before stalling is still uncertain. A couple models show the front stalling out just south of the area while others clear it into the Mid-Atlantic. The trends here need to be monitored as a front that stalls near the area would help enhance rain Wed and Thur across portions of the area, while dry conditions would occur Thurs if the front clears into the Mid-Atlantic.

The precip trends will need to be monitored closely as hydrologic ensembles continue to show a a low probability (10-20%) for river and stream flooding during the 2nd half of next week. Flooding chances will increase if the front stalls near the area and some isolated flash flooding could develop if we end up seeing multiple rounds of heavy rain across portions of the area Tues thru Thurs.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Winds fall off overnight but pick up again tomorrow a few hours after sunrise.

Outlook:

Sunday through most of Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night through Wednesday...a chance of rain showers and associated occasional restrictions. Thunder possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Thursday...Scattered rain and snow showers along with occasional restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.