textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures slightly warmer Friday night and winds slightly lower Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into Saturday.

2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm up through next week after a chilly weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

High pressure will give way to an approaching warm front which should push through the region tonight as a low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes. Clouds will be on the increase today with most spots getting close to 60 for highs. Tonight with the development of a LLJ and warm frontal passage temperatures may not fall much after the early evening hours or even slightly rise toward sunrise. Moisture lifted along the warm front looks sufficient enough for a round of showers as well heading toward daybreak Friday.

Overall, the warm sector looks to be in our region slightly longer on Friday now. This should allow for a break in the showers for a time and for high temperatures to make a run at 70 for most of the region. Hires models are showing some slight CAPE advecting into NEPA and perhaps the Southern Tier of NY as well. Some thunder was added to the forecast ahead of the cold front with the final push of showers moving through the region. A few stronger wind gusts may be able to reach the ground with any thunderstorm. Rainfall looks to max out around an inch being aided by terrain in Oneida county with general amounts around half an inch.

Temperatures drop sharply Friday night but are trending slightly warmer. With the northerly to northwesterly flow lingering moisture from the Great Lakes should be sufficient enough for lingering clouds and spotty rain showers and or snow flurries. Temperatures look to be stuck in the 30's and 40's Saturday with a sharp but brief cold shot.

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure builds into the region early next week. Winds have trended lighter Saturday night and with clear skies. Temperatures still are indicated to fall below freezing for most of the area with the growing season still ongoing in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. A fairly tranquil period is expected with high pressure over the region early next week with weak southwesterly flow allowing for a warmup.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly MVFR CIGs will continue tonight as the axis of a weak trough crosses the region. Occasional breaks in the cloud decks or increased cloud base heights will allow for brief improvements to VFR. Winds will briefly increase some during the overnight out of the northwest to north with weak cold air advection and a decent LLJ overhead during the overnight period.

Heading into the daytime hours, clouds will start to diminish in coverage and cloud base heights will start to increase, resulting in VFR flight conditions for all terminals by the late morning and early afternoon. Clouds will start to increase later in the day ahead of the next system.

Outlook...

Thursday night Friday...Low pressure system passing by, increasing winds and rain will lead to restrictions. Potential for LLWS will increase for the second half of Thursday night.

Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM.

Sunday into Monday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.