textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes made to increase cloud cover this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure continues today, with dry conditions expected.

2) A warm front brings chances for showers tomorrow morning, followed by a cold front with widepsread showers on Friday. Temperatures turn colder behind the front with frost possible across the north this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure conditions have begun to slowly erode away some cloud cover, which has blossomed fog in areas where skies have cleared. However, clouds will likely increase again tomorrow morning, and lasting through the day. Overall high pressure conditions will keep conditions dry, with very low to negligible chances for precipitation expected. Warm air advection from southwesterly flow will push temperatures into the 70s with upper 60s in the Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A weak arm front will cross through region late overnight tonight through tomorrow morning, which will bring a few light showers across the area, but nothing substantial. The next chance for more widespread rainfall will come on Friday, when the cold front crosses the region. Scattered showers are expected across the area on Friday, with rainfall amounts around a quarter to a half inch expected. The front exits the region Friday night with Canadian high pressure pushing in behind it. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler going into the weekend than tomorrow and Friday's highs, which are forecasted to top out in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows could get into the low to mid 30s Saturday night across northern Oneida County, but there remains some uncertainty with cloud cover, as another system approaches by early Sunday morning.

There still remains some timing differences among model guidance runs on an upper trough/cold front dropping out of Canada Sunday into Monday, and low pressure tracking off the Mid Atlantic Coast to our south. With uncertainty remaining, we continued to utilize the NBM's solution for late weekend into early next week's forecast.

AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Earlier MVFR cigs have finally started to clear out from northwest to southeast. Cigs will continue to scatter out tonight and with clearing, there is a good chance at fog development, mainly for the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. ELM, BGM, and ITH have the best chance at LIFR tonight. RME and AVP have lower confidence so put in some restrictions overnight but did not bring it down to LIFR.

Tomorrow finally has enough dry air behind the departing noreaster so VFR area wide is likely by around 15Z. Mid to high clouds will filter in through the day.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog in the favorable areas, especially at KELM will be possible, which will likely result in restrictions.

Friday through Saturday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Sunday...Low pressure passing near by, potential for restrictions if it passes through the Northeast.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.