textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions will gradually improve late today and tonight as the Nor'easter begins to depart the region. High pressure will bring a stretch of warmer, drier weather.

2) The pattern will become active late in the week and into the weekend as rain returns and temperatures become more seasonable.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The Nor'easter will slowly move up the coast this afternoon and tonight. This will lead to showers becoming more isolated this afternoon and through the evening. As the system pulls away, showers will come to an end with high pressure gradually building in. Model soundings show low-level moisture under an inversion. Most profiles would favor low stratus over fog through both will be possible across the region tonight. Where fog does develop, it may become dense.

The low stratus and fog will clear up by the late morning hours on Tuesday. Persistent northerly flow will keep some moisture around and cloudy skies will likely linger well into the afternoon before drier air moves in from the north. Rain is not expected tomorrow but a couple of models still try to pop up a couple pockets of what would just be drizzle. Confidence was too low to include any mentionable PoPs in this forecast update. Without the rain and some late breaks in cloud cover, temperatures will climb into the 60s across the region. Clearing skies overnight will lead to good radiational cooling and fog development. There is potential for fog to become widespread across the region.

A ridge builds into the region Wednesday. Southwesterly flow will advect in warmer air, helping push temperatures into the 70s and even 80s through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures will be more mild as well, only falling into the 50s and 60s. Stronger flow aloft on Thursday will have potential to mix down leading to gusts of 15 to 20 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for rain across the region comes with a frontal boundary late in the week. This system approaches the region Thursday night and begins to slowly move through on Friday. The front eventually departs the region on Saturday with high pressure and cooler air filling in behind. The high pressure quickly slides off to the east, allowing for a low pressure system to move up into the Northeast on Sunday. Additional showers are expected with this system to round out the weekend. Unlike this week's Nor'easter, this low pressure system will be quicker to move through with potential for drier conditions to start next week.

With both of these systems, there are uncertainties. The arrival of the frontal system still varies by 6 to 12 hours between guidance. Models have also trended slightly slower with this system. While guidance have come into better agreement with the timing of Sunday's system, there is still uncertainty on the track and how it interacts with a low in Canada.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR and IFR cigs will continue through the rest of the afternoon into the overnight hours as wrap around moisture behind the low lingers. Tonight, hill top fog is likely with BGM having the best chance at airport mins for most of the night. ITH also has a good chance but may remain as a LIFR cig. AVP is uncertain if there can be fog or any vis restriction overnight so left an IFR cig but cigs could drop low enough to lead to IFR fog. ELM will likely remain below the cloud deck with IFR to LIFR cigs but if there can be a few hours of clearing, then fog will form but that is looking unlikely right now.

SYR and RME look to be on the north end of the IFR cigs. Given the time of the year, the cigs may linger longer than modeled so kept in IFR for both locations overnight but many of the models do have the skies clearing after midnight.

Tomorrow, it will take some time for the sun to help dry air mix in. IFR to MVFR cigs will linger to at least mid morning across the Southern Tier and NEPA. ELM, ITH, and BGM may hold on to IFR through 18Z but decided there is a good enough chance to improve conditions prior to 18Z this period.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR after morning IFR restrictions on Tuesday. Morning fog in the favorable areas will be possible, causing localized restrictions.

Friday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions. Moderate confidence.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.