textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the afternoon forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry weather will continue through Friday with high pressure in control.

2) Rain showers are expected to move into the area on Saturday, perhaps mixing with some wet snow at the highest elevations. Trending colder and wetter on Saturday and Saturday night. Some of the highest elevations may see some wet snow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure continues to bring dry weather to the area this afternoon. There will be a small chance for an isolated rain shower across the NY Thruway corridor this afternoon, but the chances are that the air at the surface will be too dry for anything to reach the ground. Gusty winds have been present this afternoon with efficient mixing and this will continue until winds decouple after sunset this evening.

Friday will be another mainly dry day, although still cannot totally rule out an isolated shower. Highs are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will be much lighter, but min RH values will be a bit lower compared to today, especially across the Mohawk Valley to the Catskills. This may result in localized areas with favorable conditions for fire spread, but this is not expected to be widespread at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An area of low pressure will track into the region on Saturday, which will bring rain to the area along with cool temperatures (highs only in the lower 40s to lower 50s). Some of the higher elevations of the Catskills may mix with wet snow, but little to no accumulation is expected. The rain showers will persist into Saturday evening, before gradually tapering off from west to east late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This will result in mainly dry conditions for the second half of the weekend with high temperatures rebounding into the mid 50s to lower 60s. This dry weather will continue through Monday before the next system moves in on Tuesday with more rain showers.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the current TAF period (at least through 18Z Friday).

Gusty north-northwest winds (occasional gusts up to 20kts) will diminish after sunset and remain light overnight. These light winds will continue Friday morning and into the afternoon.

Outlook:

Friday afternoon through Friday night...Mainly VFR to start, rain showers moving in late Friday night with associated restrictions possible.

Saturday through Saturday night...Rain showers expected along with associated restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions.

FIRE WEATHER

A combination of dry and breezy conditions will create an elevated risk of wildfire spread across Northeast Pennsylvania this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 25 to 35 percent accompanied by wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph.

Conditions may once again become favorable for wildfire spread for parts of the area on Friday (mainly the Mohawk Valley- Catskills in Central NY and parts of Northeast PA), but winds are expected to be much lighter. This may limit this concern, but it will continue to be monitored.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.