textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast high temperatures were lowered even further and it still may not be enough as the smoke is looking potentially very thick. Smoke was also added to the grids through Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Smoke is expected the next couple of days from active wildfires in south central Canada.

2) Cooler and more unsettled weather will move into the area for the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another active day for wildfires across Southern Canada into northern Minnesota released gratuitous amounts of smoke over the last several days. With faster flow aloft, we saw some elevated smoke yesterday but today the surface smoke will be moving in. Vertically integrated smoke in both the HRRR and the RAP show that we will see periods of thick smoke today through tomorrow. Surface visibility may fall below 3 miles with the smell of smoke likely. Temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow were lowered by about 5 degrees but that may not be enough. Areas under the thicker smoke yesterday were 10 to 15 degrees cooler than modeled for highs.

Tomorrow is a tough temperature forecast as there is potential for the smoke to remain thick. Smoke allows for long wave radiation to pass through so cooling is not affected so overnight lows tonight may end up being cooler than forecast as well. Thick smoke remaining Thursday would prevent heating from a cooler start so highs could be on the upper 60s to low 70s rather than mid to upper 80s but the confidence was not there to lower them that much.

Atmospheric flow does not change much into Friday so if the fires remain burning at an elevated intensity, Friday could be another smokey day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A trough digs into the Northeast late Friday into the weekend with a broad surface low moving through. This will likely bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. 0-6 km shear is between 30 and 40 knots so a few storms in the afternoon after day time heating may become severe. We remain on the eastern edge of the large ridge in the Western US so remain in a favorable severe pattern into early next week as well.

AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Upstream METSAT imagery continues to show wildfire smoke across southern Ontario, Canada and northern NY, and this smoke will enter our region today. Smoke should be at surface level today, but how thick it will be at the surface is still somewhat uncertain. Forecast confidence is medium that it will at least be dense enough for MVFR visibility across the region after 16Z. Although, based on latest models, the surface based smoke may only impact sites south of the I90 corridor.

Winds should pick up again today with gusts out of the west- northwest around 20KT.

Outlook:

Thursday through Friday...Visibility restrictions likely at times due to wildfire smoke from Canada. MVFR seems to be the most confident forecast at this time for Thursday, but local IFR cannot be ruled out. Wildfire smoke density is still uncertain for Friday at this time.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.