textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There were no significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Calm and dry conditions are expected through Wednesday as high pressure remains in place. Temperatures will also begin to trend warmer by midweek.

2) A low pressure system approaches Wednesday night, bringing a warm front and increasing chances for rain showers. A cold front then sweeps through Thursday night into Friday, bringing widespread precipitation and a drop in temperatures heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure remains centered over the region today, bringing mostly sunny skies. Northwest flow transitions to southwest this afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the low 40s. Winds will remain light, with gusts under 10 knots. Tonight, temperatures fall into the mid 20s across most of the area, with the Wyoming Valley holding in the low 30s. A warming trend begins Wednesday, with highs rising into the upper 40s to low 50s. Milder conditions continue Wendesday night, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. A few spotty showers may brush the northern portion of the region Wednesday night as a warm front lifts across the northeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A broad low pressure system will move through Thursday evening into Friday morning, bringing widespread precipitation to the region. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the 60s with precipitation beginning as rain. With the frontal passage expected during the evening, instability appears limited. As a result, the threat for severe storms remains low, although a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. SPC has most of our region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, but the greater risk remains over the midwestern portion of the country.

As the front passes temperatures will fall with rain transitioning to a mix of rain and snow before ending. Some areas may fully change over to snow showers, with light accumulations possible, especially across higher terrain in Central NY. Winds will increase ahead of the front and remain breezy in its wake. Behind the front, northwest flow returns as a weak disturbance move through Friday, bringing the potential for light lake enhanced showers. Cooler conditions are expected, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and overnight lows dropping into the mid teens to low 20s. Drier weather returns Saturday as high pressure builds in. Despite mostly sunny skies, conditions will remain cool, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s accompanied by gusty winds.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 00Z Thursday). There is a very low chance for brief MVFR ceilings to sneak into KRME late tonight/early Wednesday morning, but the chances are that even KRME remains VFR.

Outlook:

Wednesday Night...A chance of rain and possible minor restrictions for the NY terminals.

Thursday...Again mostly VFR morning to at least midday, then a rainy cold front will drop northwest to southeast through the region Thursday afternoon-evening with developing restrictions. Snow may mix in before precipitation ends late Thursday night.

Friday morning...Lingering ceiling restriction possible early, but improving conditions.

Midday Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.