textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The remnants of Isaias will spread rain across the area Sunday into Sunday night. Between a half to one inch of rain is expected during this time for most locations. No significant impacts are expected at this time.

3) Weather conditions on Columbus Day are expected to be dry and quiet before additional chances for showers Tuesday into early Wednesday. Dry and seasonably cool weather returns for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Quiet weather today and Saturday will turn more active on Sunday as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias lift north across the spine of the Appalachian Mtns and along the East Coast. This tropical system will quickly transition to extra-tropical and become baroclinic as it moves north through AL/MS/GA. This system will become absorbed within the large scale synoptic flow later on Saturday and lift to the northeast Sat night into Sun morning.

Model guidance/ensemble member consensus is now in very good agreement about bringing in the onset of rain from the south/sw to our forecast area around 5-7 AM Sunday morning...and spreading to the north/ne through the rest of the morning hours. PW values will reach into the 1-1.5 inch range in our area, with values greater than 1.5 staying along the coast and east of the I-95 corridor. This system will become fairly fast-moving as well, which will limit the threat of heavy rain on Sunday.

Model soundings are indicating a layer of potentially unstable air above a very strong inversion around 4-5 kft. This mid level instability is relatively shallow and while we cannot completely rule out the threat for a few thunderstorms and resulting locally heavier downpours, confidence is on the low side for this to occur. So, the latest thinking is for a widespread 0.5 to 1 inch of rain from Sunday morning to Monday morning. This amount of rain over this time period should be manageable and not cause any impacts in our area.

Winds should remain sustained around 20 mph or less with some ridgetop gusts up to 30 mph possible in the Poconos and Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There may be some lingering lake enhanced rain showers streaming in from the north/nw Monday morning, but the overall trend through the rest of the day should be to dry conditions out. Weak high pressure builds in on Monday night before more rain arrives later in the week.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the timing of the next short wave and associated rain. Some of the earliest guidance has rain moving in late Monday night and Tue morning, while later solutions have rain entering the region from the west/nw on Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts will likely range from a tenth of an inch, up to a half inch before ending Wed morning. Another ridge builds in Wed and Thu prior to another round of rain lat Thu into Friday followed by what looks to be some of the coldest air of the season so far. We'll have to see how the guidance trends with this incoming deep/cold trough next weekend, but it is something to keep an eye on through next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Still expecting generally VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with the exception of patchy valley fog that could impact ELM between 08-13Z. A few-sct strato-cu deck today should dissipate this evening and leave mostly clear skies tonight. Gusty west winds today around 15 to 20 kt will subside to less than 5 kt after 23Z this evening. Light and variable winds persist through the rest of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday and Sunday night...Showers with associated restrictions likely.

Monday and Monday night...Generally VFR conditions with weak high pressure building in.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system looks to approach the region with showers.

Wednesday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.