textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snowfall totals were decreased for Northeastern PA and Southern Tier NY. Winter Weather Advisories for Oneida-Onondaga-Madison- Cayuga were extended by 6 hours, ending now at 1pm EST Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain today transitions to snow tonight as a deep trough moves through leading to accumulating snowfall across the region.

2) Cold and snowy pattern continues through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough currently over the Great Lakes will help to push a surface low pressure system into our area from the southwest this afternoon. Precipitation will start as rain as temperatures are in the mid- to upper-40s area-wide. As the main center low passes overhead tonight, colder air pushes in, and rain will transition into snowfall. As it does, wet surfaces may become icy as temperatures approach and fall below freezing. Uncertainty still lies for NE PA and the Southern Tier, as trends keep slowing the introduction of colder air, as well as QPF trending slightly slower. With the slower introduction of colder air, the transition from rain to snow may be slower, but it will most likely occur west-to- east after 2am EST.

A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for tonight through early afternoon tomorrow for most of central NY and Bradford and Susquehanna Counties in PA. For the counties impacted by the following lake effect snow, the advisory is in effect until Friday early afternoon.

Following the departure of this system, lake effect snow develops under west to northwesterly flow. This will result in additional snowfall for the eastern Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley regions through Friday morning. A ridge of high pressure then builds into the region Friday afternoon, bringing an end to the lake effect snow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Under a broad trough, the cold and snowy pattern will continue through early next week. Another shortwave trough will dig over the eastern US this weekend, with a weak clipper system expected to pass north of the region and will bring a chance for scattered, light snow showers to the region over the weekend.

A more organized system moves over the Atlantic late Sunday, but is not expected to have any impact for our region. This trough will also bring a surge of colder air leading to temperatures going from the 30s on Saturday to 20s on Sunday. Another surge of colder air is expected early next week as a more broad shortwave swings through. There is some uncertainty on how cold this surge will be though early next week looks to be blustery with temperatures trending even colder and gusty winds expected. Any snow early next week will be in the form of lake effect and mainly limited to central NY.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings are initially expected before IFR conditions settle in a little later this evening. Rain will gradually mix with snow overnight and eventually transition to snow early Thursday morning, which will result in widespread IFR or worse visbys and ceilings. Gradual improvement from west to east is expected very late in the period, but lake effect snow showers may continue to bring IFR conditions to SYR and RME.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, although occasional restrictions possible at KRME and KSYR with some light snow showers.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers.

Monday...Cold front approaches the region with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for PAZ038-039. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ009-017- 018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ015-016- 022>025-044-045-055-056.