textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted snow chances for tomorrow based on high-res guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front moves through in the morning, followed by a second stronger cold front that will kick off snow showers in the afternoon and evening. Scattered snow squalls can be expected as well. Gusty winds will accompany the cold front and snow showers.

2) Pattern change starting mid week could bring slightly below average temperatures and snow for the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Another active weather day expected today with gusty winds and afternoon/evening snow squalls.

The dual low pressure system that brought record rain to Syracuse has pushed NE of the area. Some lingering showers remain over CNY, but those should dissipate before sunrise. A cold front will move into the area this morning, bringing a wind shift to WNW will slowly increase speeds and gusts as the morning progresses. A second, stronger cold front will push in this afternoon associated with the upper level trough axis transiting the area. This front will be the main weather driver today. Winds are expected to increase across the area this afternoon, with sustained 15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph. A Wind Advisory was considered given the NW flow associated with cold fronts usually gets winds going, but model guidance, both ensemble and deterministic was just not showing a high enough chance for Advisory level winds to develop. It is borderline and a short fused Advisory may be needed later this morning, but at this time, confidence is not high enough to issue one.

Along with the gusty winds, snow showers and snow squalls are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Weak ridging will build into the area this morning behind the first cold front, clearing skies across much of the region and allowing weak instability to develop. Latest guidance shows 60-90 J/kg of CAPE developing, and combined with steep low level lapse rates, convective snow showers and squalls are expected to develop this afternoon and evening. The steep lapse rates will allow momentum transfer to bring some strong winds down to the surface, with isolated 45-50mph gusts not out of the question. Bursts of heavy snow will bring visibility below 1/2sm and quickly cover roads with snow, making travel very hazardous during the afternoon and evening hours. Heavier showers and squalls should be out of the area by mid-evening, with light lake effect snow expected to develop over the northern Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley and into Oneida county through Monday morning. SW winds will keep lake effect going off the east end of Lake Ontario. Far northern Oneida county could see snow showers through Tuesday, but snowfall totals are expected to be light. Up to an inch across the Southern Tier and NEPA by Monday morning with 1-3 inches possible north of the Southern Tier. Extended lake effect snow into Tuesday should bring 3-6 inches across northern Oneida county, with the border with Lewis county seeing amounts on the higher end of that range.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pattern change is expected to start mid week as an upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes. A weak clipper system should develop to our NW and track to the NE with this initial digging of the trough into the Great Lakes. Rain showers with elevation based rain/snow mix should move over the area Tues night into Wed with minimal impacts expected.

On Wed night into Thurs, a strong shortwave originating in Canada is progged to ride the longwave trough and dig into the central Mississippi River Valley where it becomes a cutoff low. Uncertainty remains as to how it develops from here and if it is able to tilt negative and phase the northern and southern branch of the jet stream quick enough to generate a surface low that would become a Nor'easter. Current ensemble guidance is starting to show a better, more consensus solution which keeps the cut off low sliding eastward, not tilting and not phasing the jet, which would keep any Nor'Easter development off shore and not impact our CWA. This pattern does push a strong cold front through the area from the north, bringing a return of colder than average temperatures and lake effect snow.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Conditions will be VFR until this afternoon. Then as snow showers develop, conditions will fall into MVFR and Fuel Alt. Guidance is showing a potential snow squall moving through AVP, BGM, ELM, and ITH between 17 and 21z. If this does occur, then brief IFR conditions are expected. Then there will be scattered snow showers and snow squalls late today and into the evening which could result in visibilities lower than forecasted. Where snow showers will be more prevalent over SYR and RME, IFR conditions will be more likely. Then tonight drier air will move in and conditions are expected to improve to VFR with snow showers coming to an end by 12z Monday.

At some terminals, there have already been some strong gusts, so winds have been bumped up for this morning. Westerly winds will become stronger today and eventually be more northwesterly tonight. Sustained wind speeds will be around 15 kts with peak gusts of 30-40 kts. Guidance has winds quickly becoming lighter yet still breezy near the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chance for snow showers (Monday) and rain showers (Tuesday) at SYR and RME.

Wednesday and Thursday... Restrictions possible with rain and snow showers changing to snow showers Wednesday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.