textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Pennsylvania DEP Air Quality Alert has ended. Otherwise, forecast on track with no major changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Smoke across the region today gets swept out tonight.

2) A combination warm/cold frontal passage will bring a period of showers/storms into the region this morning, followed by strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and brief torrential rainfall are possible.

3) Showers and storms will again be possible in the mid-week time frame.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest runs of the HRRR model smoke guidance show high concentrations of near-surface smoke returning to the region. Smoke appears as though it will linger well into the afternoon hours before a cold front sweeps through the region tonight. Disruption of the airmass due to showers and frontal passages should keep the smoke a little thinner than previous days. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for Central NY on Saturday. It will be up to State partners if these will be a need to be extended.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Today's forecast will be complicated with variable sensible weather conditions throughout the day. Initial weather will be associated with a warm front lifting northeast through the region this morning with showers and possibly some thunderstorm activity due to elevated instability along the frontal plane. Then...most of the forecast area should see a break in action within the warm sector during the middle part of the day. Conditions will become much more humid and uncomfortable as dewpoints climb to around 70 degrees and temperatures reach the lower 80s.

This surge of heat and moisture will prime the atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front and upper trough from Canada. Severe convective parameters become individually favorable for organized thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and evening with MLCAPE values now indicating 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will be sufficient at 35-40 kts. There is a bit of a discontinuity between the best shear and best instability with higher shear occurring in the morning and best thermal forcing in the afternoon. Still the overall expected conditions are favorable enough when combined with sufficient dynamic forcing. The Storm Prediction Center still has our area within the Enhanced Risk category with wind damage the expected outcome along with a potential for rotating storms and a low probability for a tornado. Highest threat potential for severe storms appears to be from 4 PM to 10 PM.

Antecedent soil moisture and the recent lack of rainfall lowers the overall flash flood risk, but WPC maintains a Marginal ERO over the region. Any potential flash flooding would focus more toward urban and poor drainage areas, especially those that may see multiple rounds of showers/storms. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than an inch, though locally could be higher. KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure builds into the region on Sunday and will remain in control through Monday night with generally dry and cooler weather. Another frontal system will arrive for Tuesday with occasional showers lingering into Wednesday as a deep upper level closed low drops into the Northeast. Wraparound moisture from the departing low may keep spotty showers around Thursday before high pressure has a chance to build back in Friday. Late in the week has the potential to stay dry though some guidance wants to bring in a weak system from the northwest and more showers on Saturday although confidence in that happening is currently low. Temperatures throughout next week will be fairly pleasant, hovering around climatological normals.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected tonight into the early morning hours. A warm front moving into the area early this morning will bring a wind shift that will push wildfire smoke back into the area this morning into the afternoon hours. Accompanying this smoke will be rain showers that will develop along the front and enhanced by a weak shortwave trough propagating across the area. MVFR restrictions are expected for all terminals with the combined rain and smoke. A few rumbles of thunder may develop this morning but widespread storms is not expected.

Showers should push east by the early afternoon, with a lull in activity expected before a cold front dives in from the north, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. SYR and RME will be the first to see the impacts, with the front bringing storms during the mid-afternoon hours. The front will continue to slide south, with storms at ELM/ITH/BGM from the late afternoon hours into the evening. MVFR restrictions are expected, but IFR visby cannot be ruled out if a heavy downpour moves over the terminal. Confidence in this is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Once the front passes, a few scattered showers are forecast to continue over CNY into the early overnight hours with scattered MVFR ceilings expected thru the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Saturday night into early Sunday morning...Scattered showers and a few lingering thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible through the evening. Showers should be out of the area a few hours after Midnight.

The rest of Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.