textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and humid conditions expected today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this morning over northeast Pennsylvania followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight across the area.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region, with localized flash flooding possible.

3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Southwesterly flow returns today as a trough begins digging into the Great Lakes. This will advect a warm and humid air mass into the region, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, with dew points rising into the mid 60s (CNY) to low 70s (NEPA). While it will feel noticeable muggy, conditions are not expected to be oppressive enough to warrant any heat headlines. As the morning progresses, the approaching trough will bring two separate features capable of generating precipitation across portions of the area. The first is a shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic this morning, which will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of NEPA. Most of the heavier rainfall is expected to remains to our south, though showers and storms may brush parts of the Wyoming Valley and into the Southern Catskills from late morning through the afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear across the area during this time, keeping any convection that develops elevated and relatively weak.

Attention then turns to a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest later this afternoon and evening. This feature will support a broader area of convection that will progress from northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. The greatest potential from strong to isolated severe storms will be across the northern portion of the forecast area. With bulk shear values of 25 to 35 knots and MUCAPE around 1000-1500J/KG, a few storms may be capable of producing damaging winds. In addition, isolated flash flooding will be possible. Sounding profiles remain favorable for efficient rainfall production, with long and skinny CAPE profiles, PWATs between 1.5 and 2 inches, warm cloud depths near 12K feet and MBE vectors of just 5 to 10 knots. These parameters support slow moving or back building convection capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. This threat appears greatest from late afternoon through the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The frontal boundary is expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, though the exact timing remains somewhat uncertain. Some guidance favors a quicker passage during the early overnight hours, while other solutions delay the front until late overnight or early Friday morning before slowing it near the NY/PA border through late morning and early afternoon. Should the slower solution verify, a shortwave lifting east from western PA would support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Twin Tiers and spreading into the Poconos during the afternoon and evening hours. The presence of a slow moving frontal boundary near the NY/PA border combined with the enhanced lift associated with the shortwave and a warm, moisture rich air mass could support multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the same locations, further increasing the potential for isolated flash flooding. Given this setup, the area remains within a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

Key Message 3...

A broad area of high pressure is expected to become established over the central US early next week, with an upper level ridge expanding eastward into the region. This pattern favors a return to very warm conditions, with model guidance indicating 850 mb temperatures rising into the +16 C to +20 C range. As a result, widespread mid 80s to lower 90s are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Attention then turns to a trough attempting to dig into the Northeast later next week, which could bring a return to cooler temperatures. However confidence remains low regarding how successful this trough will be in suppressing the ridge and delivering meaningful cooling to the region.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR is expected through the TAF period for all terminals until tonight. A cold front sinking down from the north will bring a blanket of MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings to the area. Additionally, this front may trigger some storms, mainly for KRME and KSYR. Confidence in timing is low/medium, so it was included as a PROB30 group around 19/20z.

Outlook:

Friday...Cold front could moves in, with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions possible.

Saturday into Monday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.