textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were increased the next couple of nights and decreased on Friday. Minor adjustments were made to snowfall totals.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain continues today as a low pressure system approaches the region. Colder air from the north will allow rain to transition to snow late today into Friday.

2) Lake effect precipitation is expected for portions of the region through the weekend.

3) Temperatures will then trend warmer next week as an upper level ridge builds in.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light rain showers have developed over parts of the region early this morning. These showers are driven by low pressure system that will continue to slide east today leading to rain becoming more widespread later by midday. With the center of the low sliding just to the south, colder air will fill in from north allowing rain to become a rain/snow mix and eventually just snow overnight. Timing of the precipitation type transition will depend on how quickly the colder air moves in. Rain will change over to snow in the higher elevations first but most valleys should see snow by Friday morning. With surface temperatures stuck in the 30s, snow continues through much of the daytime Friday thanks to wraparound moisture on the back side of the low. As the low drifts out to sea later on Friday, coverage will become more scattered on the back side of the system. Meanwhile, low-level flow will continue to advect colder air over the Great Lakes, leading to lake effect snow precipitation developing.

Snowfall totals did not change much from the previous forecast. Higher elevations of the Catskills still could see the highest totals with localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Other higher elevations across the region could see an inch or more. A coating of snow is possible elsewhere as snow sticks to colder surfaces but is not expected to accumulate much on the warmer ground. If rain transitions to snow quicker than expected, then final snowfall amounts could end up higher. These forecasted totals are still short of advisory level and confidence is too low for any headline issuance at this time.

Temperatures through the end of the work week will be colder than past days. Highs today will be in the 40s and 50s before falling to near and below freezing tonight. Temperatures will struggle to warm up Friday, only maxing out in the 30s to low 40s. Then sub-freezing temperatures are expected Friday night and this could lead to light icing on untreated, wet surfaces. NBM guidance seemed too cold at night with cloud cover and precipitation present. Then for the same reasons, the NBM was too warm compared to most other guidance for Friday. A blend of Consall and NBM was used to make adjustments to the temperature forecast during these times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Flow will become northwesterly and 850mb temperatures fall colder on Saturday, leading to lake effect precipitation lingering through at least Sunday and potentially into Monday as well. Along the northern areas of the Finger Lakes, precipitation will be primarily rain or rain/snow mix due to warmer conditions. Elsewhere, precipitation will be mainly snow, at least on Saturday. As temperatures trend warmer Sunday into Monday, snow will transition back to rain during the day. The CMC keeps the lake effect showers going through Monday though drier air begins to move in as an upper level ridge approaches the region. Additional snowfall accumulations are expected through at least Saturday night, though any transition back to rain will likely melt most of what does accumulation. Another 1 to 2 inches will be possible in higher elevations whereas less than an inch is expected elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

After this brief sample of winter, weather conditions improve during the midweek period. The aforementioned ridge builds into the region Tuesday with high pressure present through at least Thursday. Temperatures will trend warm and back above average, at least for daytime highs. The nights will remain cool with temperatures near or below freezing.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Conditions will be mainly VFR early this morning, but will deteriorate by daybreak with rain showers and low ceilings moving in. MVFR ceilings and visibilities and eventually IFR conditions are expected throughout the day with the rain. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but was left out of the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in this occurring. Wet snow could begin mixing in with the rain this evening, with restrictions remaining right through the end of the TAF period (at least through 06Z Friday).

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

Sunday...Lingering rain and snow showers, mainly in the morning with associated restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.