textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes made from the NBM this forecast cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures remain warm through mid week.

2) A cold front pushes through the region with showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon across the Southern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania. In the wake of the front, cooler temperatures are forecast for the end of the week and into the weekend under dry NW flow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure is building overhead tonight and with the wet antecedent conditions, fog was already developing just after midnight. Continued Radiational cooling and light winds will lead to areas of dense fog through the early morning hours. Confidence is still too low on how widespread dense fog will be, but an SPS or possibly a dense fog advisory may be needed for the morning commute.

The next couple of days will be pristine early summer days with ample sunshine, warm temperatures, and lower humidity as dry air continues to advect in from the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Our next chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will push through the region moves through. North of the Southern Tier, enough dry air may be in place to limit any shower activity, but from the Southern Tier on southward, there could be just enough moisture for scattered afternoon storms. Capped PoPs below 40 percent for now due to low confidence at this time.

Friday into Saturday is still being watched as a high amplitude shortwave with a pocket of cold air dives south out of Canada into our region. Even though this shortwave will have plenty of lift, it wont have much moisture so while rain chances have increased, potential QPF is on the low end, likely less than a quarter inch for most of the region. Still given how small the pocket of cold air is, temperatures have not been decreased a whole lot yet and will keep lows in the 40s for now. Frost and freeze potential is unlikely even in the colder models as a surface low moving in with the shortwave will keep winds elevated and the boundary layer well mixed. With an Omega block setting up for the US, the Northeast will remain under persistent troughiness, so cooler weather is more likely than not headed into the beginning of June. Luckily this means highs in the 60s rather than 50s as climatological highs are now approaching the low to mid 70s for June.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected this evening at all terminals as high pressure continues to build into the region. Given the recent rainfall, clear skies and light winds expected tonight, some areas of low clouds/fog are expected to develop. Best chance of restrictions occurring at ELM, ITH, RME and perhaps BGM. Included IFR/LIFR fog in the taf at ELM, ITH, RME, AVP and a tempo at BGM. Any fog/stratus will lift, scatter and dissipate between about 12-14z tomorrow morning, with a return to widepsread VFR conditions through the rest of the daytime hours.

NW winds 5-15 kts expected this evening, then winds become light and variable under 5 kts overnight. West-southwest winds up around 5 kts expected late tomorrow morning and early afternoon.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.