textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Today is expected to be dry and warm before a more unsettled weather pattern settles in for late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

635 AM Update...

Temperatures are starting off a little cooler than expected early this morning, mainly in the upper 40s to mid-50s along with some valley fog. Otherwise, skies are mainly clear with just some scattered mid level clouds up across the I-90 corridor from Syracuse to Utica/Rome. The valley fog should burn off quickly by 8-9 AM followed by mainly sunny skies with some light smoke/haze aloft into the afternoon hours.

305 AM Update...

Weak ridging allows for a dry and warm day today for the area. Though, wildfire smoke from Canada will likely move into the area towards the late morning/early afternoon hours, creating hazy conditions. Today will be warmer, with overall highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, which is around normal for this time of the year.

The pattern turns more zonal heading into Thursday, where there is a dividing line between cooler, more stable air, with high shear to the north, and warmer, moist, unstable air to the south. Heading into Thursday evening, there is an attempt at low chances of rain showers and storms, mainly for NE PA, but with being under the right-exit region of an overhead jet streak likely to subdue lift, confidence is decreasing for chances of rain showers and storms Thursday afternoon-evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

330 AM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the warm temperatures and quasi-zonal flow aloft that will be present later this week and should be able to generate some afternoon/evening showers and storms. Attention then turns to a trough that will bring numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday and even Saturday night.

The synoptic flow on Friday will mostly be defined by a broad, low amplitude trough over much of eastern Canada...a somewhat dampened ridge over the Southeast US and a cutoff low in the mid Mississippi Valley. A weak upper wave and surface inverted trough in the Upper Midwest will get sheared off and try to move to the east across the southern Great Lakes into the Northeast heading into Thursday night. Currently carrying a 15-20 pct chance of showers and a few weak storms Thursday evening. There is expected to be a dividing line between cooler, more stable air, with high shear to the north...and warm, moist, unstable air to the south. Chances for thunderstorms (>15 pct) will reside south of the NY/PA border, but any chance for strong or more organized storms is expected even farther to the south.

Later Thursday night, high pressure at the surface will build in from the north and lightly settle in over the region. Temperatures will cool off into the low to mid 50s Thu night as skies clear off and winds go calm. This will also likely induce some valley fog into early Friday morning.

The cutoff low over the Southern Plains will lift northeastward into the southern MS valley region during the day Friday as a weak embedded upper short wave in the southern Great Lakes tracks eastward. This flow pattern will allow a stronger push of southerly winds and usher in a warmer and more humid, unstable air mass on Friday as a surface warm front lifts just north of the Twin Tiers. The combination of increased instability (500-1000 J/kg ML CAPE), deep layer shear around 30-40 kt, steep lapse rates and weak forcing from the s/w will allow for increased chances (30-45 pct) for showers and thunderstorms late in the day or evening. This convection doesn't appear to be well-organized at this point, so the threat of severe weather is very low at this time. Will need to keep an eye on the late Friday timeframe for future severe potential though; especially if the warm front and therefore increased instability continues to trend northward. Highs are trending warmer on Friday, now forecast to range from the mid-70s to lower 80s areawide.

Periods of rain showers and embedded t'stormchances continue Friday night as the broadly cyclonic upper level flow persists and a weak surface low tracks across the Mid-Atlantic. West northwest flow continues into Saturday, as the main mid/upper level feature moves slowly east into the Ohio Valley region. It will be humid and mostly cloudy with highs in the 70s on Saturday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over CNY/NE PA out ahead of this low. Our area looks to remain situated close to the stalled surface front, with higher instability and PWATs south. WPC has highlighted our area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in this pattern, with PWATs up around 1.6" and warm cloud layer approaching 9.5k ft in thickness. Showers and a chance for thunderstorms continues Saturday night as the remnants of the upper level low approach Western PA. It will be humid with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

350 AM Update

Upper level trough remains in place on Sunday, with the above mentioned remnant upper level low/feature drifting east across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. This will keep clouds, showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms in our forecast. It will be a little cooler and cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s Sunday afternoon. The forecast trends somewhat drier into early next week as 500mb heights gradually rise. With that said, each day will still feature a chance (30-45%) for pop up instability based showers and/or t'storms associated with daytime heating. Nighttime lows are in the mid-50s to lower 60s and daytime highs will be low to mid-70s Monday, followed by 75 to 80 on Tuesday. Then next, slightly better organized system looks to approach by next Wednesday. This system will be moving north across the northern periphery of a 500mb ridge. This will bring additional scattered to numerous showers and possibly thunderstorms to the area. However, it will not be a complete washout, with conditions favoring partly sunny skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s outside of the showers and storms.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A ridge will dominate the weather pattern through the TAF period, with VFR conditions prevailing at all sites. Light and variable winds tonight becoming southwesterly tomorrow around 5-10kts. There will be some light smoke and haze aloft to contend with through the taf period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with isolated showers possible.

Saturday into Sunday...Restrictions possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.