textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the afternoon forecast package. PoPs were once again bumped up from the NBM for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers are expected to continue into Tuesday, especially across Central NY with some lake enhancement.

2) High pressure builds in for a brief period of dry weather Tuesday night into Wednesday, then additional rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday before drying back out heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The pesky upper level low that has impacted our area the past few days remains over the region this afternoon. This low combined with diurnally-driven instability will result in isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. With cool air present aloft (850mb temperatures around +7-8C), small hail will be possible in any thunderstorm, or even just a heavier rain shower.

Lake effect rain showers are expected to become more concentrated along and north of the NY Thruway corridor tonight, before a shortwave moving through results in the flow turning more northwesterly on Tuesday. This will allow for isolated to scattered lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers to spread farther south and east once again through Central NY and potentially into Northeast PA. PoPs were increased from the NBM both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as the NBM tends to be underdone with shower coverage and not far enough southeast in this setup.

Temperature-wise, it will feel a bit fall-like both today and Tuesday with highs only in the 60s and lower 70s, potentially mid 70s in some of the valleys on Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will also be on the cooler side, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. The next cold front starts to approach from the west Thursday and moves through Thursday night into early Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure may form near the Southeast Coast and lift north ahead of the front and enhance the moisture across the area which could result in some localized downpours. High pressure looks to build back in with drier conditions for the start of next weekend.

Temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday through Friday with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The Lake Plain and portions of the Finger Lakes do look a bit warmer on Thursday ahead of the front with some places reaching the lower to mid 80s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Lake effect rain showers likely develop this afternoon, though not expected to bring long-term restrictions, but could be brief with a passing shower. Rain showers are expected between 19z and 01z for most terminals. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but chances were too low to include at any TAF site at this time. Heading into the late evening hours MVFR CIGs drop down from the north and overspread all terminals except AVP between overnight tonight. There could also be additional lake effect rain showers during this timeframe, especially at SYR and RME.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Lingering MVFR restrictions possible with the west- northwest flow lake effect rain showers around. Improvement expected later in the day or evening.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, morning fog potential at ELM.

Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.