textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Total rainfall today was lowered slightly as the steady rain is expected to end a few hours earlier than previously expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A broad area of low pressure is moving through today, with persistent light rain and cool temperatures.

2) Cool but drier NW flow tonight into the weekend brings below average temperatures and a frost threat Thursday night into Friday morning.

3) Active pattern returns this weekend into early next week, but remaining cool as cold air aloft continues to move in from the NW.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad, elongated surface low coupled with being in the left exit region of a 250 mb jet streak moving in sets us up for a wet day today. Steady, stratiform rain moves in from SW to NE early this morning and persist at least into the late morning or early afternoon. Rainfall amounts were lowered slightly from previous forecast, down to around a half inch to an inch for the Finger Lakes into CNY, and between a quarter inch and a half inch for the Southern Tier and south. The cold front associated with the low is moving in faster, and some residual dry air may slow the onset time later tonight some. The steady rain ends from NW to SE as the cold front drops in and surface high pressure builds in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With high pressure building in tonight and 850 mb temperatures falling back to just below 0C, there will be a frost risk tonight and Thursday night. Winds may be too high tonight, with high pressure centered well to our west, helping to at least keep a breeze going for the first few hours of the night. Forecast soundings also keep a fairly shallow layer of moisture near the surface behind the departing precipitation lessening the efficiency of any radiational cooling. Tomorrow night looks slightly better, though the center of the high is still west of the region. With the shorter nights, it will take most of the night too cool off and if the winds can remain elevated in the evening for even a few hours, it may be enough to keep low temperatures in the mid and upper 30s rather than low 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The northeast is looking like we will remain under a long wave trough into next week. After the dry period behind the rain today into the weekend, the weekend into next week is looking to have more frequent chances of rain. High pressure over the SE US moves off shore, allowing for gulf moisture to stream back northward into the plains. This will give some higher precipitable water values for shortwaves rotating around the base of the long wave trough to have more precipitation with it. The good news, the amount of cold air streaming into the northeast is going to become more limited as warmer air is slowly working its way into the cold air mass over Canada.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A cold front will push through the region today. This frontal system will bring widespread rain and ceilings will quickly fall to MVFR/IFR early this morning. AVP is expected to remain VFR the longest, with restrictions arriving a few hours after sunrise. Conditions will improve later in the afternoon from north to south, although restrictions will still likely be MVFR through the remainder of the forecast period.

Outlook:

Thursday through Thursday night...Mainly VFR, though valley fog possible in pre-dawn hours at KELM. Friday night through Sunday...Cool and unsettled period with intermittent chances for showers and restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.