textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures this morning to match trends overnight. Temperatures tonight were also lowered a few degrees given similar conditions tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure remains in place through Friday with seasonably cool mornings.

2) Coastal low moves into the Coastal Mid Atlantic region with some rain along and east of I-81 and breezy conditions this weekend.

3) High pressure returns early next week with a gradual warm up into mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold continental air mass along with a strong surface high remains in place today. Clear skies and calm winds overnight has lead to pockets of lows in the 30s while the rest of the region fell into the low 40s. Today will be similar to yesterday though some more high clouds sneak into the Northeast as a coastal low deepens off the coast of the Carolinas. Dry air in place and a similar set up tonight as last night, temperatures will drop off with lows falling to almost identical values as this morning. Some patchy frost is possible in elevated deeper narrow river valleys of the Twin Tiers, Catskills, and Southern Tug Hill.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models continue to slowly hone in on the evolution of the Noreaster this weekend. Trends overnight have concentrated the low center a little farther to the west with the low occluding off the Mid Atlantic coast rather than off the New England coast. Precipitation chances were raised in the Catskills but they were not extended west too much as dry air from the strong high pressure to the west will help dry out the back side of the precipitation shield. Winds look to be breezy Saturday and Sunday with northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. Ensemble spreads in the low pressure centers is still very high given how close we are to the system being near by but even the farthest west solution would keep the heaviest rain and strongest winds east of the Catskills. Overall impacts to our region will be minimal with this noreaster.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the noreaster occludes and moves out to sea Sunday night into Monday, upper level ridging builds back in. Southwest flow brings in a milder air mass aloft with a gradual warm up expected into mid week. Subsidence aloft along with moisture return taking its time post noreaster, precipitation chances are low to none Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Current LIFR restrictions at ELM will clear out clear out by mid-morning, along with the rest of the valley fog that has formed. High pressure will bring VFR weather across the region today. Another chance for fog at ELM tonight, with IFR and lower restrictions possible after 08z.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday Night through Monday...Mostly VFR with a chance for showers east of I81 corridor.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.