textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is increased confidence that temperatures will get quite warm this week, with a pattern that would also favor potential clusters of thunder passing through the region during midweek.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With a cold front having just passed through the region, a breezy cooler day starts off the weekend, though with generally dry weather until later on Sunday.

2) Warm weather is in store for much of the coming week, though with passing disturbances causing occasional chances of showers. Some thunder could occur as well Tuesday into especially Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cooler breezy day is in store, courtesy of a cold front that brought about a tenth to quarter of inch of rain Friday evening into the overnight period. We still have post-frontal clouds and scattered showers will be finishing up; perhaps with some sprinkles lingering just after dawn in parts of Central New York courtesy of lake-enhancement. Much drier air will advect into the region during the day, with frequent gusts of 15-30 mph out of the northwest. Initially there will be a thin layer of trapped moisture underneath a subsidence inversion, forming ahead of incoming high pressure. However, the dryness of the air above the boundary layer as well as a strong mid-April sun angle will eventually manage to mix out that layer allowing for a bright afternoon. After highs of upper 40s-upper 50s today, good radiational cooling under high pressure tonight will send temperatures into the mid 20s-mid 30s.

The high quickly slides east on Sunday, with a warm front developing to spread at least increasing clouds over the area if not even some showers. Best chances for some light showers will be north of the Twin Tiers and later in the day to evening. With high water still impacting the Finger Lakes region and Cayuga Lake in particular, it is a good thing that amounts will be generally less than a tenth of an inch. Northeast PA to the southern Catskills are unlikely to get any rain at all out of that warm front. Even in Central NY, much of the day will be dry at first before any showers move in.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Much warmer weather is anticipated for the coming week, including what will probably be our warmest day yet this season by Wednesday. The pattern is favorable for chances of occasional showers, and probably even thunder Tuesday into especially Wednesday.

Warm air advection will get going Sunday night with breezy southerly winds, leading to a Monday ith highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Then for the remainder of the week, we will reside in a belt of westerlies over the top of a warm ridge extending from Southeastern U.S. Not only will we have access to warm air, but also disturbances running through the westerlies will be prone to causing chances of showers and even thunder. A frontal zone will not be far to our north, and while it does not appear likely to succeed dropping through the area, it will favor unsettled weather in its vicinity.

Temperatures upper 60s to near 80 Tuesday, and boost further into the mid 70s-mid 80s Wednesday into possibly Thursday. A deepening southwest flow will eventually bring in more moisture as well, with dewpoints actually eclipsing 60 degrees with is elevated for April. With decent flow aloft, 35-50 knots in the 3-6km layer, as well as increasing instability by midweek; there is reason to believe that a few clusters of thunderstorms could traverse somewhere through the region during the midweek period; Wednesday in particular. Too early for any confidence in details, but something to monitor. The National Blend of Models already places pretty high odds on exceeding 500 J/Kg of Convective Available Potential Energy, with at least a possibility of 1000 J/Kg if falling in the right location with well-timed wave passages. Temperatures may not be as warm towards the end of the week, yet still likely above normal.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Conditions continue to gradually improve, and will eventually improve VFR later this morning into early afternoon. Skies expected to scatter out or clear by the mid-afternoon.

Gusty north-northwesterly winds pick up later this morning and last through the afternoon.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chances for showers, afternoon thunderstorms, and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.