textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered QPF totals from the NBM Sunday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler, drier and less humid weather will be in place today through Saturday.

2) An unsettled weather pattern will take shape beginning on Sunday and last through at least midweek with multiple rounds of rain showers and cool temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure currently centered over western Ontario will be building into the area later today leading to drier, less humid and quiet conditions into Saturday. Lingering clouds and a couple of brief showers or sprinkles around early this morning in the wake of a cold frontal passage will give way to clearing and a mostly sunny afternoon. Dew points will be falling as well so it won't feel nearly as sticky outside. High temperatures across CNY are expected to be a few degrees lower than Thursday, but overall pretty close to average in the upper 60s and low 70s. Highs are expected to be in the mid and upper 70s in portions of NE PA and Sullivan County, NY, mainly in the Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys. As high pressure settles overhead tonight with light winds and a clear to partly cloudy sky, good radiational cooling conditions will be in place. Lows will be largely in the 40s with some spots in the Catskills and Northern Oneida County dropping into the upper 30s. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in these locations, especially if lows drop a couple of degrees lower, but confidence remains low at this time to add to the forecast grids.

One more dry day is expected on Saturday with a good deal of sunshine, although some higher clouds may sneak in from the west later in the day ahead of the next system as high pressure slides to the east. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A low pressure system will approach from the west later Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the next round of rain to the area. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport moisture northward, supporting the potential for a widespread rainfall. Rain is expected through much of Sunday before gradually tapering off by Sunday evening. There is the potential for some areas of locally heavy rainfall, especially across portions of NE PA and the Southern Catskills Sunday. PWATs climb to 1.50 to 1.80 inches or so on average with warm cloud layer depths of 11-12K feet and strengthening winds aloft as winds at 850mb increase across central and eastern PA, the Southern Tier and into the Catskills. The NAM has winds as high as 45 to 55 knots, while the GFS and Euro don't look to be as bullish, but still the ingredients are there for a soaking rainfall. Most deterministic and ensemble model guidance have rainfall amounts topping out around 1.25-1.50 inches of rain late Saturday night through Sunday evening, but there can be a little enhancement due to the ingredients just mentioned. However, the NBM looked too high in it's rainfall totals of 2.20 to nearly 2.50 inches in parts of this area, especially given the lack of instability and convection, so WPC was blended in to taper those numbers a bit. This gives us rainfall totals of about 1.50-2.00 inches across NE PA into the Southern Catskills, about 0.50 to 1.25 inches for the Southern Tier of NY and less than 0.50 inch of rain around the Finger Lakes northeastward toward the Tug Hill region. Sunday will be a noticeably cooler day with highs in the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

Monday currently looks mainly dry as surface high pressure develops north of the Great Lakes. That being said, some lingering showers will be possible in Northeast PA.

Tuesday through at least midweek there appears to be a cutoff upper level low that develops near the Great Lakes that tries to drift toward our area. This would lead to cloudy, cool and unsettled conditions with rounds of showers and below-average temperatures through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Restrictions are expected to return tonight as we have some low level moisture trapped near the surface, allowing for the cloud deck to lower to MVFR restrictions. Clouds should start to scatter out from NW to SE later tonight as dry air wins out, bringing VFR conditions to most of the terminals after 12z. ELM may see some IFR and lower clouds and visibility to develop as the clouds scatter and we get some better surface cooling. Confidence in this occurring is moderate as it will also require boundary layer winds need to lighten up, but may have difficulties doing this with the cold air advection occurring. ITH is also expected to see a period of IFR conditions as skies scatter later tonight and lake moisture gets pushed up to the terminal.

Outlook...

Friday Night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday through Tuesday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.