textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The high temperature for today was increased above the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Quieter weather is expected to round out the weekend.

2) The pattern becomes more active beginning Monday with chances for showers and storms through midweek.

3) While uncertainties remain, the end of the week is trending drier.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure will build in behind a departing cold front leading to a quiet end to the weekend. Skies will be sunny as temperatures climb into the 80s. Based on yesterday's observed highs under sunny skies, temperatures were increased using a blend of NBM and NBM 90th percentile. Dew points will be in the 50s to mid 60s, so despite the warmer temps, it will feel more comfortable than past days. Most of the overnight period is expected to be dry as well. The nighttime temperatures will drop into the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The start of Monday is expected to be mainly dry, especially for those further east. Some early morning showers will be possible ahead of the remnants of an MCS out of the Midwest that will track east into the region by midday with support of a wave passing through. As previously mentioned in past discussions, there are signs of an EML associated with this convection though there is uncertainty with how far east that will extended. Instability will range from 500 to 1000 J/kg though with increasing sky cover in the morning, it may be difficult to get values on the higher end of that range. Shear will be fairly weak at 25 to 35 kts. Conditions will be marginal for isolated stronger storms. The main concern on Monday will be the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Model soundings show moist profiles with skinny CAPE. PWATs will be 1.7 to 2 inches. Upshear flow will be weak for part of the day, suggesting the possibility for slow moving storms. While having a dry day prior will help, any areas that have received higher amounts of rainfall in recent days will be most sensitive to isolated hydro issues.

Weak high pressure will briefly build into the region early Tuesday and bring drier air over the region. The next disturbance will drop into western NY/PA and clip southern portions of the region Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. After a brief lull in activity, a surface frontal system will approach the region from the north. Additional showers and thunderstorms will kick off ahead of the front as an upper level trough begins to dig over the Northeast on Wednesday. This front will sweep through during the overnight hours and be followed by drier air. However, with the trough hanging around, embedded weak waves will support isolated to scattered showers/storms on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Ensembles are favoring a pattern change at the end of the week as the trough slides east and the ridge over the Midwest builds in. There are some uncertainties on timing though, so if the trough is slower to move out, there would be potential for spotty showers Friday. Otherwise, drier conditions are favored into the weekend. The ECMWF has been consistent in the past few longer-range runs with a system moving through on Sunday as the ridge breaks down while solutions like the GFS keep conditions dry under the ridge. Given this, low chance PoPs were introduced for Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms are now moving out of the area. A few showers may still impact BGM and ITH through about 07z. Otherwise, skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast early this morning.

Fog and low stratus may once again try to develop early this morning. Uncertainity is higher with the exception of KELM. IFR/LIFR fog is again a fairly confident forecast for KELM, mainly in the 08-12z time period. RME is also forecast to see some light fog or mist (MVFR) around early this morning, especially considering the recent rainfall. There is uncertainty at BGM, and not enough confidence to add restrictions from fog or stratus here at this time. SYR, ITH and AVP more than likely do not see any restrictive fog or mist this morning. Conditions then turn VFR from mid-morning through the rest of the day and evening at all of our TAF sites.

Winds turn west-northwest and could be breezy between 10-20 kts at RME and SYR this afternoon. Elsewhere, West-northwest winds are mainly 6-12 kts this afternoon, diminishing quickly after sunset and becoming variable/terrain driven.

Outlook:

Late Tonight through Monday morning...Mainly dry with VFR conditions expected.

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Restrictions with overnight fog/low clouds are also possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.