textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered tonight a few degrees as clear skies and calm winds will allow for radiational cooling to take hold. Rain chances were increased for this evening and overnight as a initial model output was too low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Gradual warmup starts today as a warm front pushes its way in from the west this afternoon. A low pressure system will transit the area tonight, bringing rain showers to the region.

2) A battle between high pressure to the west and a trough to the east will generate a 10 degree temperature gradient across the CWA midweek into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure over the area brings clear skies and calm winds thru the morning, with temperatures falling into the mid 20s to upper teens across the region. Cold air will stick around this morning, with temps in the 30s for much of the morning. A warm front will push in from the west this afternoon, allowing temps to climb into the low to mid 50s for most areas west of I-81. The cold air may linger east of I-81, with temps struggling to break 50.

A shortwave will amplify as it tracks across the Great Lakes this afternoon, developing a weak surface low that will slide across the area this evening and overnight. Light rain showers will develop along a reinforcing warm front this shortwave will push through. Rainfall amounts this evening into Wednesday morning will be light, will less than 0.25 inches expected across the CWA. The rain should push out by late morning, leaving high pressure and dry conditions in its wake.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern thru Friday, bringing dry conditions. We will be under NW flow through the rest of the week, with a ridge to our west and a trough to our east. This will allow for warm air under the ridge to move in west of I-81, with some cooler air periodically filtering in east of I-81. A 10-15 degree temperature gradient is expected to set up Wed-Fri with mid to upper 60s in the Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers and and upper 50s to low 60s east of I-81. The flow seems pretty linear with no shortwaves rippling through that may pull cooler air farther west than currently forecast.

Wet weather may return for the weekend. The ridge to our west is progged to break down, allowing a shortwave to dive into the area from the NW. Lots of uncertainty remains about the timing of the ridge breakdown, which will determine the track of the low and where rain showers develop.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure brings VFR conditions with increasing clouds today. A low pressure system moves in from the west, bringing rain showers starting in the evening and lasting into the mid morning hours. VFR conditions are expected with these showers through the early overnight hours, before ceilings fall into MVFR restrictions after 09z thru the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible.

Saturday...Showers and associated restrictions possible; low chance of thunder.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.