textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dew points were lowered for Friday afternoon. Chances for precipitation were lowered for Saturday night for portions of Central NY.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry and pleasant conditions will continue through the end of the week.

2) Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend as a frontal system moves through.

3) Another system will bring the next round of showers and storms by midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the upper 70s and low 80s but humidity is fairly low thanks to drier air in place. A few pop up showers may be possible this afternoon across the Twin Tiers. Given the dry air in place, these showers will be light and should not amount to much precipitation. Any showers that can develop should come to an end later this evening. Overnight, winds will become much calmer and that should lead to fog developing, at least in the valleys. There will be some higher cloud cover that may delay the timing of fog development early Friday morning. Temperatures will fall into the 40s and 50s.

High pressure will stick around through Friday with another pleasant day in store. Under northwesterly flow, temperatures will only climb into the 70s with dew points in the 50s. Dew points were lowered with the help of Consall guidance. It will be a cool and potentially fog night with temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A warm front will move through the region late Saturday with the next round of showers. With the later timing, instability will be quite limited but an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in Northeast PA and the Catskills. A cold front will soon follow with additional showers and storms. Models are showing around 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. If there is a break in showers and some clearing skies early in the day, then these values may be possible. Combined with 30 to 35 kts of shear, some gusty thunderstorms would then be possible Sunday afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are lacking so severe storms are not expected at this time. Showers will linger into Sunday night and possibly into Monday depending on how quickly the front moves through. High pressure will build in behind the departure of this system. Besides some uncertainty with timing, there is also uncertainty with the northward coverage. Models seem to agree that the bulk of precipitation will likely be over southern portions of the region. Localized rainfall amounts of 1 inch or more will be possible. Further north, amounts will be less than 1/2 inch.

A slight warming trend is expected through the weekend before colder air then fills in behind the departing cold front. Some will struggle to reach 70 on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure will keep the start of Tuesday dry as temperatures will rebound back into the 70s. The high pressure then slides eastward, allowing for the next system to move in. This system will move in from the northwest with showers entering north-central NY by Tuesday night with northeast PA staying dry until later in the day Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the arrival of this system and how quick precipitation spreads southward. Areas that can stay rain-free early Wednesday may also see afternoon thunderstorms, though instability may be limited.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Winds will be gusty this afternoon with gusts peaking between 20 and 25 kts. AVP has yet to see some gusts, though a few gusts around 15 kts will be possible. The gusty winds will become calm overnight. While most terminals will be VFR throughout the TAF period, these calm winds will allow for fog to develop at ELM early Friday morning with LIFR restrictions expected. ELM should return to VFR by around 13z.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. Morning fog will be possible.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Restriction possible as frontal system moves through the region.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.