textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added some slight chances for rain showers this afternoon with a weak front moving through.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry, breezy conditions expected over the next couple of days with warmer temperatures. The I-90 corridor and northward has the best chance to see rain showers tonight into tomorrow.

2) Sunday into early next week has trended wetter with some remnant moisture moving in from tropical storm Isaias.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Zonal flow has set up over the region with several weak 500 mb shortwaves passing through. Without much moisture in place, only a few isolated sprinkles. Along and north of the NY Thruway, there is just enough moisture for a bit of CAPE to have developed downwind of the Great Lakes ahead of an incoming shortwave this afternoon. While rain showers will still be isolated, a few heavier showers are possible with a low risk of a lightning strike or two. While most of the area will be dry with breezy and warm afternoon conditions, areas that have already past their leaf peak with dry leaf litter on the ground will have a higher risk of fire spread through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are coming into better agreement with the remnants of tropical storm Isaias moving up into the Ohio River Valley and out into the Mid Atlantic. While rainfall is looking likely, models and ensembles have the 250 mb jet well to the Northwest of the moisture plume so a predecessor rain event is very unlikely. Still some light to moderate stratiform rain will move in late this weekend. Right now, ensembles range from a widespread quarter inch (25th percentile) to 1 inch (75th percentile). There is not much of a tail on the high end, with the 95th percentile below 2 inches of rain, though some pockets of higher values are in the Catskills and Poconos over 2 inches. Once this remnant is moving off to the east, cold air looks to filter in again.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through most of the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Thursday). There is a chance for some patchy fog to impact KELM late tonight/early Thursday morning, but this is far from a certainty due to elevated winds aloft. A few scattered rain showers will be possible at KSYR and KRME after midnight until around 09Z Thursday, but these are expected to be light and not result in any restrictions.

Gusty southwest winds (occasional gusts up to 20kts) are expected this afternoon, before becoming lighter (5kts or less) tonight. Winds pick back up Thursday afternoon with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible at times. Also, LLWS is expected this evening/tonight at KELM, KITH, and KBGM. Brief LLWS is also possible at KSYR and/or KRME, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at those terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Isolated lake effect rain showers may bring occasional restrictions at KSYR and KRME. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Scattered rain showers with associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.