textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered PoPs, QPF and snow amounts for the west- southwest lake effect snow event today through tonight as the lake effect snow band will remain mostly north of our forecast area. Confidence increasing for high pressure this weekend to keep heavy snowfall south of the region, but still some potential for some snow accumulations into NE PA and possibly the Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGES

1) West-southwest flow lake effect event continues today and through tonight. Minor accumulations off of lake Erie for portions of Central NY (0.5" to 1"). Far northern Oneida County may see the lake Ontario band sneak in at times with light accumulations.

3) Clipper system approaches, but ultimately weakens Wednesday into Thursday. Snow showers are still likely across northern portions of the CWA, with minor accumulations possible (especially Oneida and Steuben Counties)

4) Cold arctic air expected later Friday through the upcoming weekend. Snow showers with the frontal passage Friday into Friday night. The strong Arctic high pressure likely keep any heavy snow from this weekend's winter storm well south of the region, although some accumulation is still possible, especially across NE PA.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The Lake Ontario snow band is well organized early this morning, but it remains north of Oneida County, but may see the edge of this band sneak into the far northern peak of the county. The lake Erie band has remained mostly west of the the region, as very cold and dry air has limited the inland extent of the snow. Occasional light snow showers or flurries will still be possible today across the northern Finger Lakes and in/around the Syracuse metro area. Accumulations overnight will be very light with just a dusting to half inch south of I-90. Far northern Oneida county could see 1 to 2 inches by sunrise, but latest models are keeping the snow just north of our area.

Latest CMCreg has really cut back snow totals for Northern Oneida and with this update, PoPs and snowfall amounts have all been lowered. However, HRRR and NamNest still show the lake band wiggling some today and if the band can come slightly further south, then far northern Oneida could see another 1-3 inches. Decided to keep the winter weather advisory for northern Oneida out for now, but if this lake effect band fails to drop south at all, then this advisory will have to be cancelled early.

Tonight, low level flow shifts more southwest and this should completely lift the lake band northward and out of Oneida County.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A weak short wave tracks into the north central Great lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening. A surface warm front should also lift northward and through our area as this wave pushes through. Some light snow will be possible, but amounts should remain below advisory criteria, with most of the area likely to see a half inch or less.

Cold front moves through Thursday morning, with more snow showers around through the day; especially across north-central NY. The flow slowly shifts more due west Thursday night, and this could bring a better chance for lake effect snow bands to impact areas north of I-90. At this time, the CMCReg again keep the lake band just north and outside our CWA, but will continue to monitor.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

An Arctic cold front is forecast to push through our area on Friday. Along the front, there will be potential for snow showers and squalls, along with blustery winds. High pressure and much colder temperatures will push in behind this front. Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night will be below zero for much of the area. This type of air mass is capable of bringing extreme bitter cold conditions and far northern Oneida County could see lows Saturday morning down to 20 below zero. High temperatures on Saturday likely struggle to make it out of the single digits above zero for many locations. Another very cold night Saturday night, with similar low temperatures expected as high pressure settles overhead. If winds can decouple it could trend even colder.

On Sunday a large winter storm tracks across the southern Appalachian Mountains. Latest model guidance show high pressure over the Northeast U.S at about 1040 mb, which is quite strong. This high does weaken some and then retrogrades northward a bit Sunday night. It appears that this high will keep at least the heavy snow south of our region. However, it's still too early to tell how far north some accumulating snowfall could push. Definitely see some potential for an advisory level snow getting into NE PA and possibly as far north as the Southern Tier. However, some models, including the AI GFS shows the high winning out and keeping almost all the snow south of the region.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The lake effect snow band downwind of Lake Ontario is expected to remain north of RME, but the bands off of Lake Erie will continue to be monitored this afternoon as some lower ceilings and light snow showers or flurries can be possible around ITH after 16Z. These lower ceilings could also shift north toward SYR early this evening, but with confidence low with regards to any restrictions, both ITH and SYR were kept VFR at this time.

West to southwest winds are expected to be gusty today, especially during the afternoon with frequent gusts of 20-25 knots with localized gusts of 30 knots expected. Winds are expected to start to ease toward 00Z Wednesday and become more south-southwesterly overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Low pressure system passing by with restrictions possible from snow showers, especially for the NY terminals. Borderline SWerly LLWS also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR, except intermittent lake effect snow showers are possible, generally for SYR-RME-ITH; low confidence on restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ015- 022>024.