textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast high temperatures for this afternoon were increased by a few degrees. Near-record high temperatures are expected. Also, dewpoints were lowered this afternoon and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the week.

2) An active pattern starts Thursday with showers at times through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Ridging overhead, combined with a warm southwest flow in place today as resulted in temperatures soaring into the 70s for most of the area. Near-record high temperatures are expected this afternoon. The warm temperatures are expected to remain in place tonight. In fact, tonight's forecast low temperatures (mid 50s to near 60 degrees) are several degrees warmer than the normal high temperatures for this time of the year.

Another warm day is expected on Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most of the area. This is expected to be the case despite the cloud cover and scattered rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned cold front will move through the region on Thursday, which will bring rain showers to the area, especially in the morning. This frontal passage continues to trend a bit faster and therefore the afternoon may actually end up being mainly dry aside from some isolated lingering light rain showers. Partial clearing is also expected in the afternoon.

Most of the area should stay dry Friday, with possibly showers continuing across the Poconos and southern Catskills as a wave of low pressure tracks along the Mid Atlantic Coast. Shower potential will increase again Saturday morning from west to east, as the upper level low tracks into the area and slowly pushes through, with isolated to scattered showers lingering until Sunday morning.

Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada will bring another chance for showers late Sunday night into Monday, with lake enhancement adding to the shower potential.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions continue into the evening with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Clouds will begin to increase late evening and overnight ahead of a low pressure system. Showers will push into the region early tomorrow morning with MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings expected at all sites. There is also potential to see IFR ceilings as well especially at BGM. LLWS is possible at a few terminals mainly from 02Z-12Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR though lingering showers also possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.