textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Storm Warning for Northern Oneida County cancelled early. However, new Winter Storm Watch for Lake Effect Snow has been issued for Northern Oneida County this evening through Saturday morning, as well as Onondaga County Friday morning through Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous snow squall along Arctic Front, will exit the Catskills and Poconos before dawn.

2) Very cold start to the New Year, with wind chills often in the single digits above or below zero today through tonight.

3) Lake effect snow showers continue today, but possibly heavy at times beginning tonight in northwestern Oneida County and starting Friday in far northern Onondaga County.

4) Additional chances for snow showers and light snow early next week, still uncertainty with timing and coverage.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Convective line of heavy snow congealed into a large snow squall along the Arctic Front overnight, as expected, which has been unfortunate for travelers just ringing in the New Year. Wind gusts were frequently above 25 mph with the squall, and several sites reached into 35-42 mph range. Quarter mile or less visibility has been common within the line, with highway webcams showing roads go from plowed bare to snow-covered in only minutes. We have even had occasional lightning, including Wayne and Lackawanna Counties between 230-300 AM. This has been an impressively organized snow squall, which has made its way across our almost our entire County Warning Area. It will finish its trek across the Wyoming Valley, Poconos, and Catskills before dawn; probably around 4 AM or so.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Highs for today already occurred at midnight, with strong cold air advection behind the Arctic Cold Front today. Temperatures will be stuck to mainly teens today, with west winds roughly 10-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph or so. Most of the time, this will drive wind chills to single digits above or below zero. Winds back off some tonight, though actual temperatures will end up in the single digits to lower teens for lows. While not cold enough for a Cold Weather Advisory, it is still quite a minty start to 2026.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Initial lake effect will be minor today. Cold air is of course moving across the lakes, so lake effect snow showers will stretch across portions of Central New York and at times into the Twin Tiers. However, this air mass is so cold, the dendritic growth layer is actually sitting in the lowest 5-6 kft above the ground. Thus, while for some it will be a nearly continuous flake fall, actual accumulations will be light and gradual. However, by tonight, boundary layer flow will back to a more westerly direction, lining up the long axis of Lake Ontario and also providing access to lake moisture from farther upwind.

Though things look solid to the north in Oswego County - thus the Warning that remains in effect there via NWS Buffalo - there is considerable uncertainty to what degree heavier lake effect bands are able to reach into northern Oneida County tonight, and whether any will reach at all into the far northern fringe of Onondaga County. Some models are quick to pivot the band completely north of the county. Then on Friday, a weak wave passes to reorient flow just a bit to potentially send lake effect more into northern Onondaga County and perhaps at times Syracuse. Given the uncertainties yet also potential for significant amounts, a Winter Storm Watch for Lake Effect Snow was issued for Northern Oneida County beginning this evening, and Onondaga County beginning Friday morning, both to Saturday morning. The potential for more than 7 inches of snow is highest in the northwest corner of Oneida County such as from Camden to Florence, and north of the NY Thruway in Onondaga County especially Clay-Cicero-Brewerton areas.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Additional clipper systems look to move through Sunday through Wednesday. Minor snow accumulations could occur depending on the track for each, with early Sunday somewhat favoring Central New York, and then late Monday probably involving both NY and PA. A warming trend gets going into Midweek, which may be enough for more than one precipitation type during the next wave Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A few lake effect snow showers are making their way through the region this morning but coverage is limited and they are unlikely to impact terminals. BGM had MVFR cigs and vis added for most of the day as conditions look favorable for some flurries to last most of the day, with less favorable but close conditions at ITH. ELM and AVP have the best chance at VFR with most of the lake induced operational impacts remain north of the airports. SYR may see some lake effect in the afternoon before the band lifts north into RME who will likely see IFR or worse this afternoon and overnight. There is some uncertainty if the band can shift back south late tonight into 12Z tomorrow and impact SYR again.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...Restrictions possible as lake effect snow showers are expected to continue, mainly for the CNY terminals.

Monday...another potential clipper can bring additional snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for NYZ009. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for NYZ018.