textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter weather advisories were ended. Ice accumulations for the Friday storm were updated, with less in CNY but increased slightly for the eastern slopes of the Catskills and Poconos.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region on Friday bringing rain and mixed precipitation to the region Friday into Saturday.

2) Threat for a coastal storm impacting the interior Northeast has become very low though a weak trough may still bring some light snow to the region Sunday into Monday.

3) Watching potential for ice jams over the next few days with temperatures remaining at or above freezing with additional rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A deepening area of low pressure moves into Michigan on Friday with a warm front lifting into the Northeast. The setup is pretty similar to this event that we just had, but with the low occluding in Michigan compared to the northern plains, we will have better forcing for more widespread precipitation. High pressure moving off of the Coast of New England Friday helps keep easterly winds at the surface across the Mohawk Valley and into the eastern facing slopes of the Catskills and Poconos. Bufkit soundings from Utica show a potential favorable set up for freezing rain in parts of the Mohawk Valley south and east of the Tug Hill. Another area of concern is in Sullivan county into Pike and Wayne county in NEPA where cold air damming may keep temperatures colder. The uncertainty is how long the surface temperatures can remain below freezing as trends in the precipitation have shifted later in the day Friday. With our solar angle climbing, there may be just enough heating from the sun through the clouds to push surface temperatures above freezing. Trends in models have been trying to push the warm front a little farther north which would mean lower chances of widespread freezing rain relative to previous forecast so no winter weather advisories for freezing rain were issued yet. Most of CNY, all of the Finger Lakes, and the Southern Tier into areas east of the Poconos in NEPA will see rain with this event.

The area of low pressure in the Great Lakes propagates through NY and off of the coast Friday night into Saturday. As it does, the warm front transitions to a cold front with precipitation transitioning to snow region wide Friday night. Given the speed of the low propagation and the lift moves east fast, snow accumulations are expected to be light.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The threat for widespread significant accumulating snow Sunday into Monday has decreased quite a bit as the trends in models have been towards a less efficient phasing of shortwaves keeping the trough less amplified. There is still a chance that the two waves can phase efficiently as WPCs cluster page does show about 20% of ensemble members between the EPS, GEFS and GEPS have an amplified trough with a deep coastal low. Looking at individual low tracks in the EPS and GEFS, the closest members to the coast are just far enough away that mainly NEPA gets in on the heavier snow while an inverted trough extending into the Great Lakes brings light to moderate snow to the rest of the region. The top two clusters are to a much more positively tilted trough and suppressed southern wave that does not develop the low until its well off shore. Still something that needs to be watched over the coming days as the short waves responsible make their way over the Rocky Mountains of the north and south.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With much of the area remaining above freezing and potential for additional rain Friday into Saturday, the threat remains for ice jams. NOHRSC analysis shows the snowpack temperature is up to 32 degrees for much of the Finger Lakes into NEPA so any rain and snowmelt will be running into the streams and rivers. River ice is also estimated to be around a foot on some of the main stems so as the water rises and the ice breaks up, there is ice jam potential anywhere there is a sharp bend or a narrowing of a river or stream.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A mix of MVFR to IFR restrictions are expected to continue the rest of this afternoon and into much of tonight as the lower levels remain moist on area soundings along with some continued low level inversions in place. Winds will remain light out of the southeast. The inversion level does look to lift around BGM for several hours which is expected to allow for restrictions to finally lift above airport mins.

Warm advection rain is expected to move from southwest to northeast across the area tomorrow starting around 10Z-13Z which is expected to lead to IFR or worse visbys. Model soundings show the potential for a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow at BGM and RME during this time. By late morning and toward the end of the TAF, precipitation is expected to become more showery in nature at most of the terminals, but restrictions remain.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Lingering showers, mainly in the form of rain, are expected to keep restrictions in place.

Friday night...Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers and associated restrictions.

Saturday...Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Confidence is low on restrictions with the uncertainty in timing and coverage.

Sunday...Potential coastal low could impact central NY and NE PA Sunday with restrictions from snow showers. Confidence is low.

Monday...Mainly VFR; low chance of light snow showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.