textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Slight uptick in showers across NE PA/central NY over the next couple of hours with decreasing chances elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fall pattern continues with multiple chances for showers through the weekend; however, no hazardous weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fall pattern continues with multiple chances for showers through the weekend; however, no hazardous weather is expected.

Current radar outlines some shower activity across the Poconos and into portions of eastern New York and will likely continue to bring some rain chances over the next couple of hours to the eastern half of the forecast area. Recent surface analysis does outline a cold front across a SYR-UNV-MRB line could bring some additional shower activity over the next couple of hours further west which is outlines fairly well in REFS guidance. Given this potential, have added some shower chances across this region; however, accumulations will generally be light and be nothing more than some light, beneficial rainfall across the region.

As this cold front shifts east of the region tonight, drier air begins to work into the forecast area, with mainly dry conditions on tap for Friday. The area of low pressure stationed across the Mid-Atlantic Coast and across the Great Lakes could bring some light showers late Friday, but best chances appear to be west/east of the area at this time. Shower potential increases more markedly for the weekend, with an area of low pressure moving across southwestern Ontario and into New York State. All model guidance continues to point towards rainfall being light with this system with periods of rain through Sunday morning before another shortwave trough dips down across the region and brings additional rain chances late Sunday and into Monday. A slight reprieve from dry conditions appear possible late Monday through Wednesday based on LREF ensemble guidance, before an unsettled pattern takes hold of the region for later in the week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Currently widespread VFR conditions across the western terminals of NY, with MVFR-to-IFR present at BGM/AVP due to lower ceilings and some scattered rain showers. Chances for showers will continue to be highest at AVP over the next two- three hours based on REFS/NBM model guidance, with another area of showers expected to form across upstate NY in this same timeframe. Based on recent surface analysis, probabilities for showers have been introduced at RME but confidence remains too low for outright inclusion in the TAF package. Given this chance but lower confidence, have outlined this potential with a PROB30 group in a narrow timeframe where these chances will be highest. After this initial wave of shower activity, generally VFR conditions are generally expected across the region overnight and through 18Z Friday. The main concern for any restrictions in the 00Z-18Z Friday window will come in the form of fog formation overnight; however, a light breeze could occur tonight with high-level clouds limiting this potential. If any airfields will have some concern for fog overnight, ELM/RME/BGM will have the most concern where MVFR-to-IFE conditions are possible. AS stated earlier, confidence remains too low (> 30% confidence) for inclusion in the TAF package, but will be something to keep an eye on into the evening hours.

Outlook...

Fri...Mainly VFR, some showers possible across portions of W NY and NE PA.

Sat-Sun...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Mon...Mainly VFR though lingering showers also possible.

Tue...Lingering showers across upstate NY with VFR prevailing elsewhere.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.