textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with the warmest day coming today.

2) An active pattern starts Thursday with showers at times through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Ridging overhead with warm southwest return flow today. Temperatures will likely climb well into low 70s to possibly mid 70s today. Thursday will be another warm day, but a frontal system crosses the area and drops temperatures a few degrees with widespread rain showers. Temperatures will cool each day for Friday through Sunday, first behind the cold front later Thursday, then with another cold front and sfc low crossing the area on Saturday. With the cooling temperatures in the 50s, afternoon highs will be closer to normal for Sunday and Monday, but still slightly above for early November.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front will push through the region on Thursday, bringing the widespread showers. Most of the shower activity will occur during the early to mid morning hours, amounting to a tenth to quarter of an inch of rainfall. The sfc low will slowly track across the Great Lakes and to New England from late Wednesday through Sunday, becoming vertically stacked with its mid and upper level lows. This will result in a prolonged period where showers will be possible at times within the cyclonic flow for most of the area. Behind the passing cold front on Thursday, a dry slot moves into the region, providing a break in the showers. Most of the area should stay dry Friday, with possibly showers continuing across the Poconos and southern Catskills as a wave of low pressure tracks along the Mid Atlantic Coast. Shower potential will increase again Saturday morning from west to east, as the upper level low tracks into the area and slowly pushes through, with showers lingering until Sunday morning.

Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada will bring another chance for showers late Sunday night into Monday, with lake enhancement adding to the shower potential.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

With clear skies and calm winds, ELM will likely fog tonight. Timing was moved back by about an hour as fog in shallower valleys has been slower to form but has started to develop. Fog should be fairly shallow with winds increasing shortly after sunrise so VFR conditions return to ELM after 13Z. All other terminals are expected to remain VFR through the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR though lingering showers also possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.