textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Cool air continues to filter in from the northwest for the remainder of the weekend, with lake effect rain showers for parts of Central NY. The next couple of nights will be quite chilly, especially Monday night under clear and calm conditions, which could yield patchy frost in typically colder spots. High pressure will dominate with dry and generally quiet conditions for this week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

240 AM Update... An upper trough will pivot over the area today, as surface high pressure currently centered over the Midwest gradually starts to build into our region.

The frontal zone that exited Saturday, remains to our east along the Coast early this morning. However, forced ascent is still occurring behind the front, courtesy of the right entrance region of a strong upper jet ahead of an upper trough. This is still causing overcast conditions with some light rain showers generally east of I-81 in PA and south of I-88 in NY. Meanwhile, some clearing to the west along with trapped low level moisture from recent rainfall, is allowing areas of fog to form from Central Twin Tiers to Finger Lakes zones.

Jet supported-showers should finish up by late morning, with at least partly sunny sky for the area today. That said, the upper trough will still swing through with chilly air aloft, and cool air advection via west-northwest winds will guide lake effect clouds and spotty rain showers into downwind portions of Central NY today through tonight. Highs today are forecast in the mid 60s to lower 70s; about 7-9 degrees shy of average.

Outside of lake effect clouds, clearing will occur for most areas tonight. There will still be some stirring wind/pressure gradient overnight, with high pressure still centered to our west. However, some radiational cooling will still occur in sheltered valleys which could get a few spots down into the upper 30s tonight; mostly 40s elsewhere. Went slightly below National Blend of Models for lows tonight, as cooling in these set ups this time of year is often underdone.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

240 AM Update... High pressure will finish building over the region, with dry weather and cool temperatures.

There will still be a light west-northwest flow Monday, but the air mass of the high pressure building into the region will tend to eradicate any lingering lake effect cloud cover to yield a mostly sunny sky areawide with highs of mid 60s-lower 70s.

Radiational cooling setup is ideal Monday night, as the high pressure center advances directly overhead with clear sky. Forecast again was lowered below the National Blend of Models, especially in valleys. Mid to upper 30s are anticipated in much of the Twin Tiers to Upper Susquehanna and Mohawk Valley areas, which could lead to patchy frost.

Temperatures moderate closer to average on Tuesday, mostly 70s, under full sunshine after the chilly dawn. Then for Tuesday night, some high clouds will try to edge in well inland of loose low pressure offshore, which will lessen the radiational cooling set up for not quite as chilly of a night. Still, lows of 40s to lower 50s are forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

240 AM Update... High pressure will mostly dominate the second half of the week with seasonable temperatures and dry weather.

At one point, there was at least a small chance of showers in the north from a frontal passage around late Wednesday-early Thursday. However, models have now appeared to commit to the idea of the front being weak and dry, trailing from low pressure all the way up in northern Quebec. Thus all that will happen with the weak vestige of a front, will be a reintroduction of renewed dry high pressure out of Canada for later this week. Temperatures will also temporarily dip ever-so-slightly Friday to perhaps Saturday, with upper 60s-lower 70s for highs. Before that, 70s will be common for highs Wednesday-Thursday, which is right around climatology.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period (at least through 12Z Monday). Any remaining fog at KELM will dissipate by 13Z or so. Fog is expected to build back in at KELM late tonight/early Monday morning, which will likely bring IFR visby restrictions again.

Light and variable winds this morning will become west- northwesterly this afternoon at 10kts or less. Occasional gusts up to 20kts will be possible at KRME and KSYR. Winds become light and variable once again tonight.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog each late night/early morning at KELM will likely bring restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.