textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Areas of fog formed overnight, but mainly for higher elevations, which will diminish quickly this morning. It is also now clearer that a weak passing wave, along a warm front that lifts through the area tonight, will yield a brief light mix of rain and snow in parts of Central New York. Up to around an inch or so of wet snow accumulation will be possible in Northern Oneida County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) As a warm front lifts through the area tonight, mixed rain and snow could occur in parts of Central New York, with a light wet snow accumulation possible in higher terrain well east of Interstate 81.

2) Though briefly warmer Sunday, our next low pressure system brings rain to round out the weekend, possibly mixing with snow before ending Sunday night into early Monday morning.

3) Cooler temperatures return Monday and Tuesday, though with mainly dry weather, before the pattern becomes busier later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A quiet day is expected today, with early fog thinning out as well as clouds somewhat diminishing. However, clouds thicken again into this evening, as a warm front lifts into the area. Models have a better handle now on a quick shortwave zipping along that front tonight, with warm air advection-related light precipitation reaching parts of central NY; lower chances towards Twin Tiers and likely remaining dry for Wyoming Valley. Thermal profiles suggest light rain mixed with snow with perhaps a brief skiff to around an inch of wet snow for some of the higher terrain well east of Interstate 81; mainly for Northern Oneida County.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The weak wave that passes late tonight, may halt the progress of the warm front from clearing through the whole area. Highs Sunday thus are figured to be held back to upper 40s-lower 50s along and north of the NY Thruway. However, widespread 50s to lower 60s are still anticipated for the remainder of Central to Southern NY, and mainly 60s for Northeast PA with Wyoming Valley even mid to upper 60s. That said, primary wave of low pressure will then ride up the frontal zone, sending cooler air back south with time Sunday afternoon through evening with a round of rainfall; most of it ana-front on the cooler side of the boundary. Thunder chances are iffy, but model soundings still suggest instability aloft even though most if not all surface- based convection remains south of our area. We still carry a small chance of thunder later Sunday to the Wyoming Valley/Luzerne County. All told, looking at a quarter to half inch of rainfall in Central NY to Northern Tier PA, and closer three quarters of an inch for Wyoming Valley-Poconos. There remains some uncertainty for whether a final wave/jet maximum will run along the sinking front Sunday night, to allow rain to mix with some wet snow before ending. It remains possible that light coating to one inch of wet snow could occur for parts of the area, especially higher terrain, as the precipitation winds down into early Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Slightly below average temperatures are anticipated for Monday into Tuesday, though the weather appears primarily dry after the very early morning mixed rain-snow Monday. That said, the chilly shot of air could generate some lake flurries through Monday night. Otherwise though, decreasing clouds will let temperatures drop well below freezing Monday night, yet also a recovery to 40s Tuesday under a mostly sunny sky.

The pattern turns busier again for the remainder of the weak due to several passing features. A weak frontal system swings through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the potential for scattered rain and/or snow showers, though it might have to battle dry air in the lower levels so chances are on the low side. There is plenty of model spread after then because individual waves zipping through along a frontal zone, thus temperatures that could be either warm or cool depending on timing of those waves. Right now though, Thursday appears fairly mild but with a showery system passing through Thursday night to knock temperatures back down again Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Gradual improvements are expected this afternoon with lingering MVFR to Fuel Alt conditions at most sites. Once restrictions lift, VFR conditions are expected late afternoon into the evening. Restrictions will be possible tonight as a system brings scattered rain and snow showers to the region. Some models are showing showers across the region while others are not as widespread. For now, confidence was too low to include showers at AVP.

Northerly winds will become light and variable late today. Overnight, winds become more southerly and some gusts around 15 kts will be possible. While borderline, guidance was showing some low-level wind shear (LLWS) at some terminals late in the TAF period. Model soundings also support this, so it was added to all terminals except BGM.

Outlook:

Sunday...Restrictions possible as another front pushes through the area from the NW with scattered showers.

Monday through Tuesday...High pressure building in across the Northeast with mainly VFR conditions; Low chance for off-and-on snow showers in Central NY and possible restrictions with morning fog.

Wednesday...Cold front begins to move in from the west with rain and snow showers as well as potential restrictions.

Thursday... Warm front pushes up from the southwest with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.