textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes to the timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms were made through tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain gusty to damaging winds.

2) Showers will linger into at least the first half of Wednesday, followed by drier weather through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cloud cover has increased across the region early this morning. Enough lift and moisture should be present to form some spotty showers across NE PA northeastward into the Western Catskills as we head toward sunrise. Just how fast these clouds clear out will determine how unstable the environment will become.

Modeling has trended faster with the main round of showers and thunderstorms. This activity should move into our region early in the afternoon then exit by early evening. This limits the window for instability compared to previous model cycles. Still, some instability coupled with modest shear should allow for strong to severe thunderstorms. The highest chances continue to be in NE PA with more uncertainity the further north you go. The main concern looks to be from gusty to locally damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Additional showers and clouds should linger through Wednesday with an upper level low passing to our north. High pressure then builds into the region for the remainder of the week with a cooler refreshing airmass. This will give way to slowly increasing heat and humidity. Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be ahead of a cold front Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this morning, although a round of a few showers between 10Z and 13Z may result in occasional/brief MVFR restrictions. While mainly VFR conditions will be present this afternoon, a round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the area from west to east. PROB30 groups for thunder were added to the TAF for each terminal, with a four hour window where thunderstorms are most likely (generally from the mid to late afternoon).

After the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms move east of the area in the mid to late evening, a deck of lower clouds is expected to move in and result in at least MVFR restrictions (mainly after 03Z).

Winds will generally be south-southwesterly throughout the TAF period. Winds will be less than 10kts this morning, before becoming around 10kts and occasional gusts up to 20kts this afternoon. Locally higher gusts are possible in any thunderstorms.

Outlook:

Wednesday...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible in the morning; otherwise becoming VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR; morning fog at KELM may result in restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.