textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjustments were made to rain chances and temperatures today with the warm front moving into the area. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few isolated showers this afternoon as a warm front moves into the area. Temperatures remain warm overnight before a cold front dives into the area Friday, bringing widespread rain showers.

2) High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for much of the weekend and next week. The one caveat is a trough is expected to move overhead Sunday. This may kick off a few rain showers across eastern portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered rain showers continue to push to the east across the region ahead of a warm front over central PA into western NY. This front is driving clouds across the area, which should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than guidance suggests, climbing to the mid 60s to low 70s. WAA behind the front will push warm and moist air into the region overnight, keeping overnight lows 10-15 degrees warmer than normal, only bottoming out in the low to mid 60s.

A cold front will dive into the area from the NW Friday morning as a broad trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Rain showers will accompany the front, moving from WNW to ESE starting in the early morning hours across the northern Finger Lakes region. These showers will slowly move to the ESE as the front pushes through CNY and into NEPA by the late afternoon hours. Rain is expected to exit the Catskills and Poconos area by the evening hours. The Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley currently should see about 0.1-0.25 inches, with lower amounts to the east and south. There will be a decent high temperature gradient associated with the front with low to mid 60s by the afternoon north of the Southern Tier and upper 60s to mid 70s along and south of the Southern Tier. The timing of the front will likely mean early overnight temps in the mid to upper 60s will be the high temperatures for the day across the Mohawk Valley and N Finger Lakes. High pressure will build into the region behind the cold front, bringing cooler and drier weather for the weekend. Highs in the 60s with dewpoints in the 40s are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will be the main weather driver for the week, but a pesky trough moving into the area Sunday into Monday morning may kick off some scattered rain showers across eastern portions of the area. Guidance remains somewhat uncertain with how the trough will evolve as the northern and southern branches of the jet stream look to phase together somewhere along the east coast. Current guidance sees the phasing and off the eastern seaboard, which would limit rain shower chances across our area. If phasing can occur Sunday night instead of Monday morning, we could get some heavier rain to develop over the area. We will monitor how this trough develops.

Another strong high pressure system will move into the area behind the departing trough. This ridge will bring the first real taste of fall as Canadian air cascades over the region. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 50s for most of CNY and low to mid 60s in NEPA. Tuesday will be even colder, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s across much of the area. Mid 50s will be possible across the valleys of the Southern Tier into NEPA. Overnight lows will be cold! Monday night will see lows in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s in northern Oneida county. Tuesday night will be a few degrees colder, with many spots falling to freezing or near freezing. Much of the growing season in CNY has ended, but if you still have plants outside or veggies that need to be harvested, take proper actions these two nights. Southerly flow should return Wednesday, bringing a warming trend through the rest of the week with temps getting back to average by the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

After a warm front passing through midday, a temporary improvement is anticipated in aviation conditions for afternoon-early evening before a cold front drops across the area overnight into Friday morning with developing rain and lowering ceilings at least for the NY terminals. KAVP will eventually have restrictions too but that will probably wait until shortly after 18Z Friday. Ahead of the approaching cold front, increasing southwesterly flow of 35-40 knots just off the surface will cause a period of marginal low level wind shear conditions for the NY terminals overnight-early Friday, which will then dissipate as the front slips through. The front will be shallow in nature with moisture trapped underneath it, causing fuel alternate required to IFR ceilings to occur as post-frontal wind also veers to the west or northwest.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through night...Cold front finishes passing, with showers ending and initial ceiling restrictions scattering to VFR. However, valley fog possible for at least KELM and possibly other terminals Friday night.

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, though valley fog restrictions possible at KELM Saturday night-early Sunday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.