textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A few weak thunderstorms have developed across extreme southwestern Steuben County. Added in thunder to the forecast for the next couple of hours for that area. Otherwise, no other significant changes were necessary.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry weather will continue today with high pressure in control.

2) A passing low pressure system will bring showers Saturday, perhaps mixing with some wet snow at the highest elevations Saturday night in the Poconos to Catskills as colder air moves in behind the system.

3) Dry and mild weather is expected on Monday, then several systems will move through next week with additional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will nose into the region with mixing bringing down plenty of dry air to the surface. Winds do look a bit lighter given a decreased pressure gradient. Given plenty of sunshine, most locations should get into the 60's today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Our NBM guidance is better handling a localized cooling pocket Saturday due to the expected widespread showers moving through the area with a good chunk of the area only seeing temperatures in the 40's. Enough dynamical and evaporational cooling may occur for some of the highest elevations in NE PA and the western Catskills for rain to change to snow at times Saturday afternoon and night. Most of the modeling is only suggesting a brief duration of mix or snow, coupled with a warm ground accumulations are not likely at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Monday still looks like a pleasant day across the region with high pressure over us. The next low pressure system has trended slightly slower with the latest indications from ensemble guidance, bringing rain chances to the area starting sometime on Tuesday, leaning more toward the afternoon or evening hours. Some showers linger into Wednesday and Thursday as well. Still some timing differences within the ensemble guidance at this timeframe, so the forecast could change some with later updates.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

No aviation weather concerns as VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through most of the current TAF period (at least through 09Z Saturday), with dry high pressure in charge. Mid level clouds arrive after sunset, with cloud bases reaching 5-8kt ft agl by late tonight. Rain starts to move in between 09-12z Saturday morning at ELM, ITH, BGM and AVP...and this rain could bring developing MVFR vsby and/or CIG restrictions at these sites by the end of this TAF period (12z Saturday). Conditions look to deteriorate even more to Fuel Alt and even IFR heading into the later morning and afternoon hours on Saturday. MVFR restrictions are not forecast to reach SYR until 18-21z, and this may only be a short period or time...with RME likely to remain generally VFR.

Steady north-northwest winds 6-12 kts today, shifting to easterly after sunset into the evening and overnight hours.

Outlook:

Saturday through Saturday night...Rain showers and associated restrictions expected as a low pressure system passes through. IFR or lower likely at ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP at times.

Sunday Morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected again today with fairly low humidity levels especially east of Interstate 81 in New York, into the far northeast corner of Pennsylvania. However, winds will be quite light, with high pressure dominating our weather. A wetting rain is anticipated Saturday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.