textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts have again have trended slightly higher Sunday into Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain across the region this morning through tonight with remnant moisture from Isaias pushing across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Dry and warm weather returns on Monday.

2) A frontal system will bring numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. The pattern will remain active with zonal flow until the end of the week and then a potential deep upper trough for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Tropical moisture from the remnants of Isaias enters the region today. Widespread rainfall pushes into NEPA this morning and will spread northward across the area throughout the day. Rain will be steady through day and be moderate to heavy at times. NEPA into the Southern Tier has potential to see localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with less than inch expected across most of Central NY and the Finger Lakes Region. Although some minor urban flooding issues could occur, especially in poor drainage areas, the flash flood threat will be very low due to the dry antecedent conditions in place.

Rain will exit the region from south to north late tonight through early Monday morning. Warm and drier conditions will return on Monday, although skies will be mostly cloudy across much of the area and drizzle may linger into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A surface low is forecast to track across southern Ontario, Canada through the day on Tuesday. A shortwave impulse and associated surface cold will push through the region Tuesday evening. During the day, our CWA will initially be well within the warm sector of this system, with southwest winds and warm temperatures expected. This should allow surface instability to increase ahead of the frontal passage if the timing works out. Model soundings show CAPE values ranging up to 500-1000 J/Kg west of the I81 corridor, along with 30-40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. PWATs also increase to around 1.4 in, so any convective showers that do form will also have the potential to produce heavy downpours. Forecast high temperatures have increased some from the previous forecast, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s possible west of I81 and highs in the mid-60s to low 70s elsewhere.

Behind this frontal system the latest guidance keeps it mainly dry and seasonably cool for Wednesday and Thursday next week. The next chance for rain will be Friday, into Saturday as a potentially deep trough approaches the forecast area. This could bring much cooler temperatures for next weekend and possibly the first snowflakes of the season, stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 6 hours. Rain from the remnants of Isaias is just at the border of the area, and will begin to push into AVP around sunrise, with conditions falling to IFR restriction at around 14z, and lasting through the end of the TAF period.

BGM/ELM/ITH will see rain showers move in by mid-morning, with MVFR/Fuel alt conditions quickly following. Confidence is increasing that these terminals will see IFR restrictions starting around 20z-23z, and likely lasting through the end of this TAF period.

SYR and RME should start to see rain showers late morning/early afternoon but VFR conditions are expected through the morning before conditions deteriorate similarly to all other terminals.

Later tonight, showers will continue through around Midnight, tapering off from southwest to northeast. Mostly IFR restrictions are expected to continue through the night, with the northern terminals having the best chance to be closer to MVFR CIGs at times through the first half of the overnight.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...Generally VFR conditions with weak high pressure passing through.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system approaches the region with showers and even a small chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.