textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures tonight a few degrees given clear skies and calm winds.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A generally dry Fall-like pattern will persist for the remainder of Labor Day Weekend.

2) Warming is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of a frontal system projected to pass through with showers and perhaps embedded thunder late Wednesday or early Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level troughing is in place with dry air aloft, with plentiful fair weather cumulus that has developed this afternoon. Any shower development through the day will struggle with the dry air aloft mixing into the boundary layer so chances of precipitation were removed to not be in the grids. If a shower does pop up, they should not be impactful and mainly be light sprinkles. Labor day is looking similar to today, even a little bit drier so there may not be as many clouds to form with day time heating. With high pressure in place leading to clear, calm conditions overnight, typical valley fog is expected to develop each night through Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Still watching the potential for a stronger area of low pressure to pass north of the Great Lakes Region in Southern Canada. The front has continued to trend weaker by the time it reaches the Northeast. It also has been slowing down as well which could at least mean better potential for widespread rain. Some of the deterministic models are trying to form a secondary low along the front that propagates into the Northeast which would really enhance the rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. PWATs are up around 1.5 to 2 inches so there is an increasing threat of heavy rain if that secondary low does form. Given the weakening of the front and timing is trending to be either overnight Wednesday or early Thursday, the severe risk is lessening. Once the front or secondary low is through, we will be back in a similar pattern as we are in now.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions this afternoon, but some MVFR CIGs possible at times. Fair weather cumulus along with with some low level moisture remains across the area. High pressure will build into the region with VFR conditions becoming dominant through the evening. Winds out of the north of around 10 mph with gusts of 15 to 20 mph can be expected.

Tonight, mainly clear skies and light winds with high pressure building into the region will lend to the potential for fog to develop across the terminals. This will bring the VFR conditons down to at least IFR VSBY, if not lower for Monday morning in the more favorable spots. This includes ELM & ITH, with potential at BGM as well. The remainder of the terminals should remain VFR, but brief reductions in VSBY to MVFR can't be ruled out.

Monday, VFR conditons are expected for all terminals after morning fog dissipates. Any fog lingering after sunrise should dissipate by around 13Z. With the center of the high pressure nearing the area, winds will be light, mainly out of the north in the 5 to 10 mph range.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Friday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building into the region. Morning fog will be possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.