textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes needed with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another slug of heavy rain will push through the region tonight into Monday morning.

2) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry through the remainder of the week, as northerly flow develops with average to slightly below average temperatures possibly by the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

More widespread moderate to heavy rain will push through the region tonight. A shortwave coupled with being in the right entrance region of a jet max moves overhead late tonight and triggers the redevelopment of rain showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms. Latest model guidance is showing some elevated instability and this could bring enhanced rainfall rates tonight. After yesterday's rain the ground is saturated and if heavy rainfall sets up tonight in some of our more flash flood prone areas, then some minor hydro problems could arise.

Dry air filters in out of the NW behind this shortwave Memorial Day morning, with showers tapering off from west to east by mid to late morning. Sunshine also returns and temperatures warm up in time for outdoor activities Memorial Day afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are still advertising a large Omega block setting up across the US, with a trough in the Intermountain West, a large ridge in the central US into Canada, and a trough in New England. This pattern will cut off moisture advection from the gulf into our area, so this week is looking mostly dry. Given the NW flow and heading into summer time, there is a chance of a few isolated storms in the afternoons with the development of instability. However, the lack of low level moisture should limit shower chances with only a chance for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models are still hinting at a pocket of cold air descending down the edge of the ridge into the Northeast U.S. towards the end of the week. Hopefully this will set up further east of our area, but nonetheless it will need to be watched as it could lead to areas of frost overnight by the end of the week and into next weekend. There remains a large ensemble spread in 500 mb heights towards the end of the week, so expect changes to the forecast in the coming days as models try to get a grip on how the pattern will unfold.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

After a bit of a lull around some of the terminals early this morning, showers are expected to fill back in before tapering off around 16Z. However, showers do look to hold on a bit longer around SYR and RME into the early afternoon. As a result, a mix of MVFR/Fuel-alt restrictions is expected during much of this time, with brief IFR restrictions possible if any shower becomes locally heavy.

After this latest batch of showers, some slight improvement in restrictions is expected before yet again another batch of rain moves in from the west this evening, generally after 02Z. There could be some elevated convection embedded in this next batch of rain that can lead to locally heavy downpours and IFR restrictions, so this will be monitored.

Throughout the TAF period, AVP remains a tricky forecast as an east-southeast wind typically results in ceilings not dropping as low as guidance supports, and that is the trend currently. Guidance suggests low clouds/drizzle and IFR or worse conditions much of the day despite the downslope flow, so confidence here is low and will be monitored closely.

Outlook:

Late Sunday night through Monday morning...Additional scattered rain showers and fog. MVFR and IFR restrictions expected.

Monday Afternoon...Clearing with VFR conditions expected

Monday Night...Patchy fog with associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.