textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook was reduced even more as confidence is low for heavy rainfall today. Fog was added for much of the area for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers will continue through Monday with high pressure to follow on Tuesday.

2) A frontal system will move through midweek with the next round of rain. The end of the week will be dry and cooler.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers have moved into the area though with dew point depressions of 8 to 10 degrees, it has taken awhile for rain to be observed at the ground. That should soon change as additional showers will push in this afternoon. Areas more north will continue to stay dry and have sunshine through mid-afternoon before scattered showers eventually spread out more later today. The low pressure system driving these showers will continue to move through overnight. With the added moisture and winds becoming lighter, fog and/or low stratus will develop over most of the area. Where rain showers will be present, that may be enough to prevent fog from developing. Models have little to no instability for this afternoon and tonight, so thunder chances were capped at slight chance. PWATs with this system will continue to increase this afternoon, going from 1.5 to around 2 inches late today. Localized heavy showers are still possible across southern portions of northeast PA but the chances for any flash flooding are low. For the afternoon update, WPC has reduced the Day 1 ERO risks over our region even more than the morning update.

Showers will continue Monday as the low exits the region in the afternoon. On the back side of the low, weak waves will take advantage of lingering low-level moisture and kick off additional showers. PWATs will be lower than today, so any showers are expected to be light. Models have some instability and shear tomorrow and while ongoing showers early in the day will limit heating, a couple afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. High pressure will build in overnight and will lead to drier conditions through at least Tuesday night. A couple of models try to kick off isolated showers on Tuesday though there will be quite of dry air to overcome.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A frontal system will drop in from the north Wednesday with the next round of showers. Areas more south will have a better chance at warming up prior to the arrival of rain showers. If so, then instability could increase enough to support some afternoon thunderstorms. Model guidance are currently not showing much instability, so thunder chances will remain low in the forecast. This cold front will continue to sweep through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. There remains uncertainty with how quickly this system moves through and it's possible showers linger into the afternoon hours as well.

High pressure will build in following the frontal passage. An extended period of drier conditions is expected to end the week. Models continue to show a weak system move across the Mid-Atlantic and then drift up the coast Friday into Saturday. However, there is spread in the track of this system. A track closer to the coast would favor passing showers to clip parts of the region. A better chance for more widespread showers will come later in the weekend as another front moves into the area on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As moistening occurs with the passages of a warm front late afternoon-evening and then a shortwave overnight, occasional showers and deteriorating conditions are anticipated for all terminals. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, but generally only showers are expected and advertised in the TAFs since instability will be so limited. Low clouds and areas of fog will develop overnight, with most of not all terminals eventually achieving IFR ceilings and perhaps at times visibility during the early morning hours. Improvement will be slow into midday, with a final showery cold front taking quite a while to move through the area.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon-evening...Cold front and showers eventually exit for a window of improvement in conditions.

Tuesday through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday afternoon-night...Scattered showers and chance of thunder with associated restrictions possible.

Thursday through Friday...VFR other than typical early morning fog, especially KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.