textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will give way to an arctic front that will sweep through the region Thursday with snow showers and squalls. Several weak clippers then look to track through the region late this week into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Westerly flow holds today with high pressure in control and dry conditions expected. Temperatures remain cool with highs climbing into the low to mid 30s across the region. Clouds are expected to pass overhead with potential for breaks and sunshine. Conditions remain dry through Wednesday evening with increasing clouds heading into early Thursday morning. Some snow showers begin pushing into our northern and western areas during the late overnight and predawn Thursday hours with light accumulations under an inch. Temperatures overnight will fall into the low to mid 20s.

A sharp cold front moves through the region Thursday morning through the afternoon generating the potential for scattered snow squalls. Conditions look favorable with model soundings showing steep low level lapse rates, modest instability, and moist temperature profiles through the dendritic growth zone. Soundings also shows the possibility of strong winds mixing down to the surface. This could produce blowing and drifting snow at times. Parameters align mainly over central NY, but a few snow showers could make it into northeast PA but not expecting impacts.

Westerly flow shifts northwest behind the front advecting cold air into the region. Arctic air will allow temperatures at 850 mb to plunge into the -15 to -18 range. This will allow a transition to lake effect snow bands later in the day and evening hours. Overall snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over north central NY. Localized higher totals are possible within the snow bands, otherwise mainly expecting 1 to 2 inches areas south of the advisory. A winter weather advisory was issued for Onondaga and Madison counties. Lake effect showers will tapper off late Thursday night into early Friday morning as high pressure builds in. Thursday night will be very cold as arctic air mass settles into the region. Lows will range from 5 below zero to 10 above.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Cold start Friday with arctic air mass in place. Winds shift southwesterly in the morning, but temperatures gradually warm as the day progress's, but only into the low to mid 20s. Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will be in control keeping conditions quiet. Overnight temperature wont be as cold as the previous night, but still cold for this time of year. Lows will range in the low to upper teens with some spots in northern Oneida in the single digits. A weak short wave approaches the region on Saturday bringing another chance of show showers mainly over central NY. Otherwise southerly flow will help temperatures rebound to the low to mid 30s. Temperatures Saturday night will range in the upper teens to low 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A series of weak clipper systems will move through the region during the long term, which will bring multiple rounds of snow showers to the area. Timing of these clippers remains a bit uncertain being this far out and therefore the NBM PoPs were left as-is. Despite the multiple chances for snow in the long term, significant storm systems are not expected at this time and snow accumulations will likely be minor.

Temperatures will be a bit below normal during the long term, with the coldest temperatures being on Monday (highs in the mid teens to mid 20s) and Monday night (lows in the single digits). Otherwise, generally 20s and 20s for highs are expected.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through at least 6Z tonight. A front approaches tomorrow and passes through the region between 13Z and 17Z with snow showers along the front. Some of the showers along the front could become squalls with LIFR vis due to the falling snow and winds. The squalls wont be widespread so right now a Prob30 group has been added to the TAFs for the timing of the snow squalls with the best chance in SYR and RME.

Lake effect snow likely develops behind the cold front with additional heavy snow showers moving through mainly CNY with ELM and AVP likely missing out on the snow later in the afternoon. A lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario looks to set up in the vicinity of SYR and RME for much of the afternoon into early evening. Confidence is too low to keep IFR or LIFR in the TAFs for the 18Z to 0Z timeframe but may be needed if it looks like the band will set up over one of the terminals.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, mainly during the afternoon and especially at the Central NY terminals.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as a frontal system approaches the region.

Monday...High pressure trying to build in, mainly VFR outside of CNY where lake effect snow showers may persist.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ018-036.