textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms today along with shower coverage early next week. High temperatures lowered early next week given clouds and rainfall. Heat advisory issued for the Wyoming Valley for this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another round of thunderstorms likely to develop and move through the region this afternoon and evening.

2) Hot and humid conditions expected once again today.

3) An area of low pressure moves slowly through the region early next week bringing widespread rain with locally heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold frontal boundary will move into the region today. Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms should develop once again ahead of the front given the hot and humid airmass. Sounding profiles point to ample amounts of instability and modest shear indicating the potential for gusty to locally damaging winds with this round of thunderstorms as well. Timing looks to be similar or slightly earlier than yesterday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures today are dependent on the thunderstorm coverage and resulting cloud cover. Blended in the Consall too help offset the continued NBM warm bias with afternoon highs. Still the combination of the heat and humidity may nudge peak heat index values to around 100 degrees in the Wyoming Valley this afternoon. Given the passage of the cold front this looks to be the last day of heat headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Moisture will overrun the cold front later Sunday into early Tuesday. Enough lift looks to be present with a low tracking to our south to bring several additional rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. PW values increase to almost 2 inches with tall skinny CAPE profiles indicative of heavy rainfall potential. The ECMWF ensemble members are fairly bullish with localized pockets of 3-5 inches of rain. However, other ensemble guidance is not as aggressive with most places seeing closer to an inch of rain. Continued to trend the daytime temperatures cooler given the clouds and rain with Consall continuing to have a much better handle of the setup than the NBM.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions expected tonight into tomorrow morning, with the potential for IFR fog overnight at terminals that received rainfall earlier today. Additional showers are already beginning to move into the region this morning and may mix out any fog if they track over an affected terminal. More showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this morning into the afternoon. Coverage, timing and the locations impacted remain somewhat uncertain, so PROB groups were used.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR, chances for additional showers and thunderstorms with restrictions.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers, mainly at ELM, BGM, and AVP.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ044-047. NY...None.