textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered tonight. Thunder chances were increased for late Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts have been added for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday with warmer temperatures.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will bring potential for more minor flooding Wednesday into Thursday as additional snowmelt leads to runoff.

3) Temperatures then trend colder into the weekend before a slight warm up Sunday. A couple of systems will bring chances for snow and rain showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry conditions will continue through Tuesday as high pressure will remain in place. Clear skies and light winds will be favorable for efficient radiational cooling tonight and patchy valley fog. Similarly to what happened last night, a range of temperatures is expected across the elevation differences thanks to a shallow inversion near the surface. This inversion will trap moisture, leading to patchy fog developing early Tuesday morning before clearing up soon after sunrise.

Skies will remain at least partly sunny on Tuesday. Southwesterly flow will help lead to even warmer temperatures with most seeing 60s for highs though some in the valleys will likely see low 70s. Sky cover will increase from north to south Tuesday night. Where skies will stay mostly clear the longest, patchy fog will be possible. Some spotty showers will be possible across portions of central NY as a warm front sits north of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned warm front is associated with a low pressure system that will slide across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This will put the region in the warm sector of the system and temperatures will once again climb into the 60s and 70s. Cloud cover will be a factor though and could keep temperatures cooler than forecasted. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, there will be a brief period of dry weather before the low drags a cold front through late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Along this front, there will be widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. While models are showing some elevated instability overnight, there will also be a cap in place. SPC clips the far western portion of our CWA with a Marginal Risk on the Day 3 Outlook. Confidence is low at this time for any severe weather as the set up looks similar to this past weekend where conditions will be stable through most of the day and the front is late to move through. With the warm conditions and rain showers expected, we will have to monitor for additional flooding issues as portions of northern NY still have over a foot of snowpack.

Once the cold front moves through, much colder air fills in behind it on Thursday. As it exits, there will be a brief changeover to snow showers resulting in light accumulations of less than an inch. Cool, northwesterly flow will support some light lake effect snow showers for the eastern Finger Lakes and over into the Tug Hill Plateau. Some additional accumulation will be possible. Temperatures will plummet throughout the day. In addition, winds will be strong around the low and along the front thanks to tight pressure gradients. As a result, wind chills will be in the teens and 20s on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Beyond Thursday, conditions will remain colder than normal. A clipper system will move through the region Friday into Saturday. There is still uncertainty on how this system will track, so precipitation types are also uncertain. However, model guidance continue favor just rain and snow. Then another low pressure system will move through during the latter half of the weekend and early next week. There will be a brief warm up on Sunday before temperatures fall once again early next week behind the departing cold front. This system may bring a mixed back of precipitation types as rain, snow, and wintry mix would all be possible.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will continue to keep dry conditions in place at all terminals through the 00Z TAF period. Clouds will start to increase and ceilings lower near the northern terminals tomorrow afternoon as a frontal boundary approaches. Highest confidence for restrictions are for SYR and RME, with the frontal boundary approaching first to these terminals, but close to the end of the 00Z TAF forecast period.

Borderline LLWS for RME and ELM between 00Z and 08Z this evening as well.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon...Some ceiling restrictions possible at RME, SYR and ITH with isolated to scattered showers around; VFR elsewhere.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

Thursday...Becoming cooler with rain showers and associated restrictions possible. Some wet snow can possibly mix in in at the northern terminals as temperatures fall.

Friday...A clipper system can lead to the chance of additional rain/snow showers and potential restrictions.

Saturday...Lingering snow showers and associated restrictions possible, mainly for the NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.