textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minimal changes were made with the afternoon forecast update. There is a small chance for some spotty freezing rain or freezing drizzle tonight into early Tuesday morning, particularly across northern Oneida County and the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos, but confidence is too low to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. A shorter- fused Special Weather Statement or Winter Weather Advisory may be needed this evening if confidence increases.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak shortwave may bring some light rain showers to the area tonight, especially across Central NY. Some spotty freezing rain or freezing drizzle will be possible particularly across northern Oneida County and the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos.

2) Mild conditions are expected through this week. A system will bring widespread precipitation to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3) Temperatures will trend cooler by the second half of the weekend into next week. Additional systems will bring potential for precipitation across the region late in the week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak, moisture-starved shortwave will move through the region tonight and bring some light rain to the area. While most areas will see rain (if any precipitation at all), there is a possibility for some spotty freezing rain/freezing drizzle, particularly across northern Oneida County and the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos. The chance for this remains on the lower side. Even if light freezing rain were to materialize, temperatures will be marginal, so impacts will be limited. Otherwise, with low level moisture trapped near the surface, some patchy fog is expected tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek as weak ridging begins to build into the region Tuesday. Highs will continue to be in the 30s and 40s with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. High pressure and drier air will keep conditions dry through Tuesday and part of Tuesday night

A low pressure system over the Midwest will lift a frontal boundary through the region early Wednesday morning bringing widespread precipitation to the region throughout the day and into the overnight hours. The exact positioning of this frontal boundary remains uncertain, but there is a high likelihood that it will bisect somewhere in our forecast area. North of this boundary, temperatures will be cold enough for a wintry mix or snow to be the primary form of precipitation, but south of this boundary, precipitation would likely be mainly rain. Another factor in place is the fact that the steady precipitation will likely result in dynamic cooling and therefore temperatures were lowered from what the NBM has.

Finally, another potential hazard on Wednesday/Wednesday night would be the potential for the rain and snowmelt to result in some ice jams to form on some area rivers and streams. That being said, this threat remains on the lower side at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The return of high pressure should result in mainly dry conditions on Thursday with temperatures remaining mild (highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s). The end of the week is a bit more uncertain. Model guidance continues to show another low pressure system over the Midwest that lifts into the Great Lakes on Friday. As it does, a coastal low forms and potentially absorbs the inland system. Additional precipitation on the backside of this system may result in additional scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonably mild through Saturday, but colder air will begin to filter into the region on Sunday and likely persist into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions across terminals will drop to MVFR/Fuel Alt this evening. Weak wave still expected to move swiftly through the region tonight with light rain showers between 04-10Z expected and patchy fog filling in after 09Z, continuing through a good portion of the morning hours. Some IFR restrictions from the fog are possible at all sites, but it will depend on where the light rain develops. Light south winds today will shift to the southwest and eventually to the west/northwest by tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Conditions becoming VFR for PA and NY southern tier terminals by afternoon. Confidence moderate.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...MVFR restrictions likely and IFR possible for much of the area with rain moving through; especially on Wednesday. Confidence moderate.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, with just a slight chance for a few rain showers around at times. Confidence low to moderate.

Friday...Rain likely with associated restrictions. Could mix with snow north, near RME. Confidence low to moderate.

Saturday...Lingering snow to the north and rain south with associated restrictions. Confidence remains low on restrictions given the uncertainty with precipitation type and intensity.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.