textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Areas of heavy lake effect snow are expected today through tonight across western and north Central NY before tapering off Saturday and remaining windy. A mix of rain and snow showers is expected Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

The upper level low situated north of the region continues to rotate, drawing cool air over the relatively warm lake waters. This setup will support lake-effect snow showers across much of the area today. The primary band of concern will be the one impacting northern Oneida County, with a secondary band affecting portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

As of this morning, westerly flow over Lake Erie has supported the development of a snow band, enhanced by a multi lake connection extending back to Lake Huron. This has allowed the band to extend farther into our region. As the upper low continues to rotate, the low-level flow will gradually lift through the day. As winds shift from westerly to northwesterly, the band currently positioned over central New York will drift southward into central Pennsylvania. Model soundings also indicate the potential for snow squalls to develop this afternoon, mainly across northeast Pennsylvania and the Twin Tiers region. Temperature profiles remain moist through the dendritic growth zone, with some instability present and the possibility of strong winds mixing down to the surface. While confidence in squall development remains low, conditions will be windy regardless, and a combination of gusty winds and snow showers could reduce visibility and make travel difficult.

Meanwhile, southwesterly flow over northern Oneida County is keeping the primary band just north of the county. This band is expected to shift southward through the morning as winds become more northwesterly. Once northwesterly flow is established, a multi-lake connection from Georgian Bay will develop, supporting heavy lake- effect snow over north-central New York. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible within the north central NY band. High temperatures today will range from the low to upper 30s across the region, allowing snow showers to occasionally mix with rain and even change to all rain at times in northeast Pennsylvania. Daytime temperatures along the New York State Thruway corridor are expected to reach the mid 30s, which may inhibit accumulation efficiency. This consideration has been accounted for in the projected snow totals. Lake Effect Snow Warnings remain in effect for our northern counties, with Winter Weather Advisories extending south of those areas. An additional advisory is in effect for Steuben County, where the Lake Erie band may produce higher snowfall totals.

Overnight temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s, with pockets of upper teens possible in northern Oneida County. The Lake Erie band is expected to weaken tonight, while the Lake Ontario band will persist into Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will rise into the low to mid 30s. Northwest flow will gradually shift southerly by Saturday afternoon and into the evening, cutting off lake connectivity and allowing lingering showers to taper off. Conditions will remain dry Saturday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s and pockets of upper teens in northern Oneida County.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Drier conditions are expected to start Saturday night as high pressure slides east. A low pressure system will move up into the Great Lakes region late Saturday night into early Sunday morning with snow showers as low temperatures will be in the 20s. Strong southerly flow will advect in warm air behind a passing warm front, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s. This warm up with lead to snow showers transitioning to just rain and potentially a rain/snow mix in the highest elevations. Despite the warmer temps and rain, winds will be gusty and bring wind chills down into the 20s during the day. A cold front is not too far behind though and sweeps through overnight. With temps falling into the 20s, rain transitions back to snow. Drier will move in behind the front though wraparound moisture combined with west to northwest flow will kick off some lake effect snow showers.

Most of the region will see less than an inch of snow from this system, especially with the warm up expected on Sunday. Models are in relatively good agreement with a band of moisture over North-Central NY that includes N. Oneida. Given this, a few inches of snowfall will be possible across N. Oneida including the lake effect snow that develops as the system departs early Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Lake effect snow will likely linger into Monday for parts of Central NY. Otherwise, drier air will remain present until Tuesday. A coastal system will move up the coast on Tuesday, though track and timing differ between guidance. The GFS is the fastest and wettest solution for the region, whereas the ECMWF and CMC are slower and drier. Conditions will be cold enough for mainly snow across the region with light accumulations possible. However, if this system tracks closer to the coast, then warmer conditions would be possible across Northeastern PA and the Catskills where rain and/or a wintry mix would then be expected.

Following Tuesday's system, flow becomes northwesterly once again leading to lake effect snow showers for portions of Central NY. This looks to be brief though as a weak shortwave dips south and moves into the region by Thursday with another round of snow showers.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Conditions are currently VFR but that is expected to change for the Central NY terminals early this morning as lake effect snow moves in. All terminals, except AVP, will see MVFR ceilings at some point this morning, though conditions may bounce between MVFR and VFR. Snow showers downwind of Lake Erie have already moved into the region and will pass over ITH, ELM, and BGM this morning. Another band downwind of Lake Ontario will slowly drop south and bring snow to RME and SYR prior to 09z this morning. The band is expected to settle over Onondaga and Madison Counties which would put SYR right under it. Under these bands, IFR/LIFR visibilities will be possible. The one uncertainty is snow band placement and timing of when the bands will move around. Models show ITH between bands this afternoon but snow may still fall there. In addition, if bands aren't directly over a terminal, then conditions may be better than forecasted. Some model guidance shows a band of snow extending down to AVP but at this time, chances were too low to include snow there. If snow were to reach the Wyoming Valley, it would likely be light and result in only minor restrictions.

Winds will be gusty throughout this TAF period. The highest gusts of around 30 kts are expected from late morning and through the evening, but some gusts may be higher. These strong winds may result in blowing snow even after the snow has stopped.

Outlook...

Saturday...Some lingering restrictions possible in lake effect clouds and flurries, otherwise gradual improvement.

Sunday and Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Tuesday...Snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009- 018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ017- 044>046. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ022.