textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Increased chances of precipitation for this morning with showers moving through western NY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Long wave trough pattern remains in place over the next week with frequent areas of low pressure moving through bringing occasional periods of light rain.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper level low is cut off over the Hudson bay in Canada with a trough extending down into the northeast through at least mid next week. This keeps 850 mb temperatures below average. With the location of the trough and ridging through the crest of the Rockies out west, flow in the US will largely be off shore so even though we will see frequent shortwaves and areas of low pressure rotate around the base of the trough bringing periods of light rain, overall rain amounts over the next 7 days is less than an inch of liquid. So despite getting an area of low pressure move through every 24 to 36 hours or so, each one may bring a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. After tonight, the frost threat will be done until Monday and Tuesday night when there is a good chance that 850 mb temperatures fall back below 0C and trends in the models have been dropping the temperatures closer to -5C.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Multiple upper level short waves will move through the region over the next 24 hours. Expect mostly VFR with mid-high level ceilings coming and going. There is an outside shot of MVFR visibility restrictions in fog at KAVP and KELM during the AM push if clearing holds...but confidence is too low to hit it hard. MVFR flight restrictions will again be possible between 14Z-18Z in another round of showers and lower ceilings. Clouds scatter again during the afternoon and evening before a third wave brings restrictive ceilings and rain overnight, especially for the southern terminals.
Light winds will become westerly 5-10 kts gusting up to 20 kts after 15Z today...and lasting through 22Z before becoming less than 10 kt.
Outlook:
Saturday through Monday..Cool and unsettled period with intermittent chances for showers and restrictions.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chance of isolated showers.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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