textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased rainfall amounts across Northeastern Pennsylvania Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry and pleasant conditions will continue through the end of the week.

2) Showers Saturday night then scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the evening.

3) Another system will bring the next round of showers and storms by midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid and high level clouds should erode this morning across the region with enough sunshine for most locations to get into the 70's for highs. Tonight looks to be the coldest night with high pressure and clear skies. A few locations falling into the 40's is not out of the question. Clouds and moisture will be on the increase though on the backside of the high pressure Saturday. Enough lift may be present for some spotty showers by sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2...

A warm front will move through the region late Saturday. PW values will rise close to 1.5 inches coupled with a decent LLJ should provide enough lift for fairly widespread showers. Coverage looks highest closer to surface low tracking just to our south. The main concern here is that some ensemble members and Hires guidance are showing narrow bands of QPF of 1-3 inches with this feature. Localized urban and small stream may become a possibility Saturday night for portions of the area if this is realized. With the later timing, instability will be quite limited but an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in Northeast PA and the Catskills.

A cold front will soon follow with additional showers and storms. Models are showing around 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. If there is a break in showers and some clearing skies early in the day, then these values may be possible. Combined with 30 to 35 kts of shear, some gusty thunderstorms would then be possible Sunday afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are lacking so severe storms are not expected at this time. Showers will linger into Sunday night and possibly into Monday depending on how quickly the front moves through. High pressure will build in behind the departure of this system. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer through the weekend with fairly warm overnight lows Saturday night in the low 60's.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Overall, the cold front has trended stronger on model guidance with a more aggressive push of high pressure from Canada early next week. This eliminates the outcome of a very warm Tuesday shown the last few days and would bring us more pleasant temperatures from lows in the 50's to highs in the 70's. Also this raises the potential for a more occluded system for the middle of next week that lacks instability. Some ensemble guidance checks up this frontal boundary, so heavy rainfall may become a concern.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High clouds between 15-20k ft agl are streaming over the area early this morning. The high clouds will drop south and east, reaching the NY/PA border by around 08-09z this morning, and finally exiting NE PA and AVP by around 12-13z. As the high clouds exit, good radiational cooling conditions will be realized under clear skies. Fog is expected to quickly form at or near ELM between 08-09z, then become well established with LIFR to occasional VLIFR visibilities and ceilings between 09-13z expected here. Confidence is moderate to high in fog formation at ELM this morning.

The fog quickly lifts and scatters out by 14z this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours at all of our remaining taf sites. There could be a few mid level cumulus clouds around this afternoon, otherwise sunny and clear skies remain through the day and evening hours.

Light west-northwest winds between 5-10 kts develop later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Winds then become light, variable and terrain driven heading into the later evening and overnight hours tonight.

Outlook... Late Tonight through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. Morning fog will be possible.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Restriction possible as frontal system moves through the region.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.