textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The wind advisory has been expanded to include Schuyler and Seneca counties, and also extended in time through 3 PM today. The probability of precipitation was increased later today as a few lines of rain move through the area despite the dry low level air mass in place.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Back to back low pressure systems bring rain chances to the region today through at least Thursday morning, along with windy conditions today.

2) A cool air mass settles into place late this week through the weekend leading to below average temperatures, scattered shower chances and the possibility for frost and/or freezes during the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A large area of low pressure just north of Lake Superior and an extending frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley will approach our area through the day today. An expansive area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is evident across the Ohio Valley at this time, moving east-northeast. Out ahead of this system southerly winds are already beginning to increase, supported by an incoming low level jet of 50- 55 kt winds at 850 mb. Winds at 850mb and the surface are expected to peak in the morning hours, then very slowly diminish heading into the afternoon hours. Expanded the wind advisory into Schuyler and Seneca counties based on the latest HRRR and GFS wind/ wind gusts output data. Will need to watch S. Cayuga and Onondaga counties carefully to see just how much the southerly winds increase here toward daybreak. As the winds only slowly diminished heading into the early or mid-afternoon hours, felt it was prudent to extend the wind advisories out in time through 3 PM this afternoon as well.

The incoming rain and embedded thunderstorms along the frontal boundary will reach the central southern tier of NY by late morning or midday. The first batch of rain very well may dry out and becoming virga as it approaches during the early to mid-morning hours. The atmosphere will gradually moisten up from west to east by this afternoon and most of the CAMs guidance (HRRR, RAP, 3km NAM, RRFS) all show and band or two of rain pushing east through much of the forecast area between 2-7 PM. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally between five to fifteen hundreths of and inch...and the rain will only last a few hours at best for each location. However, with the probability of light measurable rain on the up swing, decided it was best to increase PoPs (for a few hour period) based on all of these latest CAMS and radar observations.

Overnight tonight, behind the exiting front there may be a few lingering sprinkles or isolated showers...otherwise it will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild with lows in the 40s.

By Wednesday a better defined low pressure center, with much more associated moisture will be approaching from the Ohio Valley. In the morning, expected just more in the way of isolated to scattered showers over the region. By afternoon and evening a steady batch of rain, with perhaps some embedded t'storms will move into the CWA from SW to NE. The rain continues overnight as the low track near or directly over the region. The rain showers continue into Thursday morning as the low center finally exits off to the north and east. This should lead to mainly dry weather Thursday afternoon, along with partial sunshine moving in from the west (partly sunny). Current indications are that rainfall amounts from this system (Wednesday through Thursday) will be in the order of 0.60 to 1.25 inches over the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A large and cold upper level low then settles and spins over the area Thursday through Sunday; only gradually moving north and away by Monday. With 850mb temperatures hovering between -2C to -6C the entire time, temperatures will certainly be held at below average levels. There will be chances for isolated to scattered pop up showers most of the days, and some could mix with snow if they linger into the overnight/early morning hours. There will be dry time and overall sky cover will be partly sunny/cloudy. A coastal low takes shape later Saturday into Sunday morning, but most model guidance keeps this well off the coast and away from the local area. One other concern will be the potential for frost or freeze conditions during the overnight and early morning periods as our growing season starts up in portions of the area. Confidence is now moderate in see some frost and freeze conditions, especially Thursday night, Friday night and Saturday night...but it will depend on cloud cover and surface winds.

By Monday and next Tuesday temperatures are expected to gradually moderate as weak upper level ridging moves into the area; but shower chances still potentially linger.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will be in place through the rest of this morning ahead of some isolated to scattered showers that are expected to move in from W to E, mainly after 16Z-17Z. With plenty of low level dry air in place and the main upper level support passing well to the north and west, there is a little uncertainty with regards to start time and overall coverage. High res. guidance still supports some more widespread activity around RME and SYR, while the remaining terminals feature TEMPO groups for showers this afternoon, but there are some small windows where there can be brief bouts of MVFR visby possible, primarily between 17Z-21Z. As the precipitation tapers off later this afternoon to isolated lingering showers, ceilings are expected to lower, but kept restrictions a little higher than model guidance for now as it has been over aggressive with several of the most recent disturbances.

Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected today with locally higher gusts near 30 knots possible through early-to-mid afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight.

Outlook:

Wednesday...A period of steadier rainfall expected, especially during the afternoon and at night, along with associated restrictions.

Thursday through Saturday...Additional isolated to scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ015-016-022- 023.