textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds and gusts again were increased Thursday into Friday as a cold front passes through the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Quiet and dry conditions continue through the rest of the day for most of the area, though a few isolated showers are possible overnight across North Central New York.

2) A passing system will bring scattered rain showers Thursday. A cold front then sweeps through late Thursday into Friday, bringing widespread precipitation and a drop in temperatures heading into the weekend.

3) High pressure returns over the weekend as temperatures become more seasonal early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure keeps conditions quiet and dry through most of the day. Southerly flow allows temperatures to climb into the upper 49s to low 50s this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies will fill in as a low pressure system over the Great lakes approaches our region. A couple of pop up showers cannot be ruled out this evening across north central NY as a weak wave passes through otherwise most of the region remains dry. Milder lows are expected tonight as temperatures range in the upper 30s to low 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A broad low pressure system will track north of our region early Thursday morning. Being in the warm sector of this system, temperatures climb into the 60s on Thursday. While there will be dry periods in the morning, there will be potential for scattered showers in the afternoon as an upper trough digs over the Northeast. Conditions look to be stable during this time, so thunderstorms are not expected with this first round of showers. Attention then turns to a cold front that moves through Thursday evening into Friday morning bringing widespread rain showers to the region with some embedded thunderstorms possible. With the the first round of showers moving through during the day and the timing of this system moving through in the evening, instability is lacking. If any strong storms do materialize mainly expecting heavy rainfall and gusty winds. SPC kept General Thunder over most of our area while the severe risk is focused on portions of the Midwest. WPC expanded the marginal risk for excessive rainfall over our region. Outside of any thunderstorm potential, winds will increase as the front approaches. Used a blend of NBM with NBM 90th to bump up winds and wind gusts Thursday through Friday morning.

Cooler air filters in behind the front as precipitation Thursday night allows temperatures to fall below freezing by early Friday morning. Any lingering rain showers are expected to change over to snow or a mix briefly before precipitation ends. This could lead to light snow accumulations of a tenth of an inch to two especially over higher elevations. Temperatures Friday night will fall into the upper teens to low 20s with lingering gusts. Single digit wind chills will be possible Friday night/early Saturday morning. Colder air remains in place through Saturday with highs again the 30s and lows in the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure is expected to return over the region this weekend, though a passing weak disturbance may bring a few light snow showers to parts of Central NY on Saturday. West-nothwest flow could also trigger some spotty lake enhanced activity. Outside of that conditions should gradually dry out, with a noticeable warming trend beginning Sunday. There continues to be some variability in model in guidance for early next week. While some model solutions indicate a system moving through as early as Monday, others delay precipitation chances until midweek. Regardless temperatures should remain on the warmer side with highs ranging mainly in the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected the rest of this afternoon through most of the TAF period. A round of isolated to scattered showers is expected to cross mainly the northern terminals tonight from around 07Z-08Z through 11-12Z but restrictions are not expected at this time. Ceilings are expected to start to lower toward MVFR levels toward the end of the TAF period as a period of steadier rainfall begins to move in from the west.

Winds aloft increase during the mid to late evening hours as a broad 40-50 knot low-level jet develops leading to 30-40 knots of southwesterly LLWS from about 03Z through 09Z-10Z at most terminals.

Outlook:

Thursday...Mainly VFR in the morning to at least midday, then a rainy cold front will drop northwest to southeast through the region Thursday afternoon-evening with developing restrictions. Snow may mix in before precipitation ends late Thursday night.

Friday morning...Lingering ceiling restriction possible early, but improving conditions expected by midday.

Friday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions.

Monday...A low chance of rain showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.