textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF, temperatures and snow amounts over the weekend with the periodic lake effect showers and weak shortwave disturbances moving through.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and snow showers around through the remainder of the weekend.

2) High pressure builds into the area resulting in drier and warmer weather for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Continued northwest flow coupled with several mid-level disturbances will contribute to several rounds of light rain and snow showers through Sunday. Continue to favor eastern Finger Lake locations eastward to the hills south of Syracuse near Tully into Cortland and Madison counties for any localized snowfall of an inch or two tonight into Sunday morning. Finger Lake moisture and terrain make these locations favored over other spots. Temperatures generally look to remain in the 30's to perhaps low 40's through Sunday.

The 850mb ridge axis does not pass through our area until Monday night. Therefore, we remain locked in the cool, cloudy northwest flow pattern on Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see pockets of drizzle lingering into Monday under the thick stratus cloud deck. Temperatures remain cool only in the 40's on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Tuesday through Saturday: General upper level ridging remains over the eastern US. There could be a very weak disturbance or front passing through toward Friday. Otherwise, high pressure looks to remain in control right through Saturday (if current timing holds). Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend through the week, reaching about 15 degrees above average for daytime highs by Friday and Saturday (50's and low 60's). With the generally clear skies and light winds, overnight lows will be on the seasonably cool side, mainly in the 30's through the week. Overall a very pleasant and fair stretch of late fall weather looks to be in store.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A mixture of IFR to MVFR CIGs will continue through the first half of the overnight along with rain and snow showers with a northwest flow off of the Eastern Great Lakes. Rain showers will slowly change to snow for most areas from the higher terrain to lower elevations through the night. Showers are expected to remain light, but some reductions in VSBYs to MVFR and brief IFR will be possible. CIGs will improve some to mainly MVFR during the second half of the night.

Sunday, mainly MVFR CIGs for the day. A few showers will linger through the morning, but should mostly taper off by the afternoon. A brief reduction to VSBY down to MVFR will be possible with any lingering showers in the morning. Morning snow showers will change to rain showers later in the morning and from lower to higher elevations through the day. Winds will remain out of the northwest with gusts in the 15-20 kt range possible during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Lingering lake clouds will maintain mainly MVFR to IFR CIGs for most of the night.

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.