textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments were made to snowfall totals for additional snow today and through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Snow showers will linger through today as a low pressure system exits the region.

2) Lake effect precipitation develops this afternoon and will continue through the weekend.

3) Warmer and drier conditions return next week with the return of high pressure.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The narrow bands that brought heavy snow to the higher elevations in portions of Central NY have since dissipated and snowfall has become lighter. Light to moderate snow showers will continue this morning and gradually end from north to south throughout the day as a surface low pressure system pulls away from the coast. Some valley locations across Northeast PA have yet to transition to snow due to milder conditions. With temperatures climbing into the upper 30s and low 40s at these locations today, snow may mix with rain but little snowfall is expected in these areas. Through the early afternoon hours, an additional of 1 to 2 inches of snowfall will be possible in the higher elevations. Elsewhere, snowfall amounts will be minimal.

Temperatures today will max out into the 30s and 40s. Breezy winds will make it feel a bit blustery as wind chills will be in the 20s and 30s this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low-level flow will become more north to northwesterly this afternoon as the low pressure system drifts eastward. Temperatures at 850mb will drop to around -7 deg C. With this cooler air passing over the Great Lakes, lake effect precipitation will develop this afternoon and continue through Sunday night. As tonight's temperatures fall below freezing, this precipitation will start out as snow. Diurnal temperature changes will favor rain during the day and snow at night through the weekend. Bands of precipitation will occasionally extend down into Northeast PA even though the bulk of it will be in portions of Central NY. Additional snowfall accumulations will generally be a half inch or less and with the transition to rain during the day, any nighttime accumulations will not last long. Narrow bands that line up over the Cortland Hills area could lead to accumulations around an inch or slightly more. Heading into Monday, CMC guidance does keep the precipitation going through the morning while most other guidance end the showers due to drier air moving in. This forecast did bump up PoPs and QPF amounts for the weekend using blends of Consall, CMC, and NBM guidance. Even with these adjustments, PoPs remained below slight chance (< 15%) for Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region early next week. Lake clouds will prevent little sunshine from peeking through on Monday but sunny skies return on Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will trend warmer throughout the week with the potential for some 60s on Thursday and Friday. Nightly temperatures will stay cool, often falling below freezing. Despite this, most of next week will be dry with surface high pressure in control. Models do show a system that passes just to the north late on Friday and could clip some of our counties with precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR to Fuel Alt conditions are present this afternoon, with brief IFR restrictions possible as lingering light snow showers and lower ceilings impact a few terminals. Snow showers have shifted south of KRME/KSYR, though MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through this evening and overnight. Brief improvements to VFR remain possible at both sites.

Lake effect snow showers are expected to develop tonight and may impact KITH and KSYR into early Saturday morning, potentially bringing additional restrictions.

Outlook...

Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible at the Central NY terminals (especially KSYR and KITH), with associated restrictions.

Sunday...Lingering scattered rain and snow showers at the Central NY terminals, mainly in the morning with associated restrictions possible.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Nyz036-057. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Nyz036.