textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances of precipitation were increased this afternoon, mainly through the Southern Tier with deeper cumulus clouds being observed on Satellite.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few showers and thunderstorms will linger this afternoon, mainly for the Southern Tier and south, before warming and drying Sunday and Monday.

2) Heat and humidity will be increasing through this week leading to elevated heat indices.

3) With the heat and humidity, Tuesday through the end of the week could have daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak surface low coupled with a low amplitude 500 mb shortwave has helped keep rain showers going across the Wyoming Valley into the Poconos. On the north edge of the cloud deck, through the Southern Tier, there has been some instability developing and eroding CIN evident by some building cumulus. Chances of showers and thunderstorms were increased from about 4 pm through 8 pm for the Southern Tier and NEPA. Farther north, high pressure aloft has helped dry air mix down and limit CU development so chances were kept near 0.

The upper level ridge that will bring us the heat this next week begins to build in tomorrow into Monday. With subsidence increasing, mid level lapse rates are not as favorable for maintaining updrafts and with northerly flow still at 850 advecting in drier air, it will be hard to get a shower or storm to develop. Still cant completely get ruled out if evapotranspiration is able to maintain boundary layer moisture as dry air mixes in through peak heating but for now, chances of rain or thunderstorms were kept out for most of the region. Monday really has the upper level ridge build in with dry air in the low and mid levels so only a few afternoon cumulus is possible along with high cirrus at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong ridge builds into the Eastern US this next week with temperatures and dew points gradually increasing each day through late week. 500 mb heights rise over 590 dm with 850 mb temperatures greater than 20C so afternoon highs will be well into the 90s for most of the region starting Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Dew points look to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s as well. Some of the ensembles even have mid 70s for dew points, and normally that would be unlikely but soil moisture values across much of the Ohio River Valley (where our surface winds will be originating from) is well above average. This could help continue to moisten the boundary layer and keep those dew points higher. One thing that could limit our warmer temperatures and prevent upper 90s and even a few 100s in urban areas for air temperatures will be afternoon convection. Despite the ridge, there will not be a lot of CIN so showers and storms could develop early afternoon and help keep highs slightly cooler.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With the hot and humid conditions, showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from Tuesday onward. We are not too far from the edge of the ridge where shortwaves propagating around the top of the ridge could trigger storms. Tuesday will be a day to watch as there is an Elevated Mixed Layer moving in, with 500-700 mb lapse rates near 8C/km. Shear does not look to be too impressive, between 20-25 knots, but still hail and downburst are a possibility with any deep convection that takes advantage of the lapse rates. Headed into the rest of the week, MLCAPE tops out around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with not much CIN so a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely. Shear remains low through this period but of course, microburst will still be possible but widepsread severe storms is not expected.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18z TAF period. Isolated light rain showers will be possible through the evening hours at KAVP, but these will likely not result in restrictions. After 06Z tonight, there's potential for widespread fog across the area, which will result in at least MVFR visby restrictions and likely also IFR visby restrictions at the Central NY terminals.

Outlook:

Sunday through Monday...VFR likely during the day, valley fog possible each morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964) 7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018) 7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.