textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances were increased for today and Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level blocking pattern will be in control for most of the week. Conditions will be mild and mostly dry.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level Omega block will be present over CONUS for much of this week. With a trough over the Northeast, conditions will be mild yet mostly dry. Temperatures will be near or even slightly below normal through the middle part of the week as daily highs will be in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. The first of many weak disturbances will move through this afternoon and evening with a line of scattered showers. This line will dissipate as it moves through the Twin Tiers with the Wyoming Valley and Poconos staying dry. Daytime heating and weak forcing will trigger pop up showers Monday and Tuesday afternoons as well. There may also be just enough instability and shear to support isolated thunderstorms as well. Showers that are able to develop will be light. Generally though, surface high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry.

The pattern is expected to change during the second half of the week, at least over the Northeast. While there will still be a low over the west and a weakening ridge in the central US, the trough/low over the east begins to fill as it drifts eastward late in the week. This will lead to a more zonal pattern and a slight warming trend into the weekend with highs in the 80s for most by Friday. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week as well. A frontal system will approach the region Friday with the next round of showers. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as guidance differ on the timing and coverage.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Given the light winds and temperatures falling fast, fog chances have increased at ELM and there is a chance that ITH may see some fog as well. Confidence is low that the fog will become persistent at ELM and may just become a mist but did get the vis down to near IFR. The fog chances will be over within a few hours of sunrise with VFR expected through all of tomorrow into tomorrow evening.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon and night... Mainly VFR.

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.