textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Gradual warmup starts today as a warm front pushes its way in from the west this afternoon. A low pressure system will transit the area tonight, bringing rain showers to the region.

2) A battle between high pressure to the west and a trough to the east will generate a 10 degree temperature gradient across the CWA midweek into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure is in place this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and south winds. Clouds will gradually increase as the afternoon progresses as a warm front approaches the region from the west. With southerly flow in place temperatures will climb into the low to mid 50s west of I-81, otherwise cool air will linger east of I-81 with temperatures in the mid 40s.

As the front pushes in winds will steadily increase and light showers will work into the region this evening and continue overnight into tomorrow morning. Rainfall totals will be light with amounts up to a few tenths of an inch. Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 30s to low 40s across the area with pockets of colder air lingering over Sullivan and Delaware counties with lows near freezing towards early tomorrow morning. This may allow for some snow to mix in briefly in higher elevations with very light accumulations expected. Otherwise the rain should push out by late morning, leaving high pressure and dry conditions in its wake.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure re-establishes over the area and continues to keep conditions quiet and dry through Friday. The region remains under northwest flow with a trough to our east and a ridge to our west. With our region inbetween these features temperatures during the second half of the work week will allow a 10-15 degree gradient to develop. Tomorrow areas west of I-81 could see warmer temperatures in the low to mid 60s, while areas east of I-81 will see temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Thursday will see a similar gradient, but oriented north to south with warmer temperatures over northeast PA and cooler temperatures over central NY.

Wet weather may return for the weekend. The ridge to our west is progged to break down, allowing a shortwave to dive into the area from the NW. Lots of uncertainty remains about the timing of the ridge breakdown, which will determine the track of the low and where rain showers develop.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure brings VFR conditions with increasing clouds through the day. A low pressure system moves in from the west, bringing rain showers starting in the evening and lasting into the mid morning hours. VFR conditions are expected with these showers through the early overnight hours, before ceilings fall into MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions after 09z thru the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible.

Saturday and Sunday...Showers and associated restrictions possible; low chance of thunder.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.