textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions will continue to be warm and dry through tomorrow with surface high pressure in place.

2) A frontal system will bring the next chance for showers and storms to the area on Saturday, lingering into the day on Sunday. Temperatures remain warm over the weekend.

3) Dry and seasonable weather is expected to return early next week as an Omega block redevelops nearby, then transitions into an upper level ridge over the region by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry weather conditions will prevail through tomorrow evening. A west- southwest return flow will allow temperatures to reach the mid- 80s to lower 90s by tomorrow as well, which would be about 10-12 degrees above average for early June, and the heat could start to have some impact on sensitive individuals, and those without access to cooling or proper hydration. NWS Heat Risk shows a level 2 out of 5, or moderate risk for some of our valley locations. These temperatures and apparent temperatures are still expected to be below heat advisory criteria, as humidity is low due to how dry the air mass overhead is.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for scattered to numerous showers and storms will come this weekend, as a frontal system approaches the region from the north. A front is forecast to drop down from southern Ontario and into our area Saturday afternoon and evening, bring the first round of showers and thunderstorms. Although not expected to become severe, there is some instability to support storm development as the front moves through. PWATS will be rising, reaching 1.5 to 1.75 inches Saturday afternoon. Putting it all together, it appears some organized convection could develop, with scattered thunderstorms or clusters moving through the area. These showers and storms could produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain very warm Saturday, reaching into the 80s over the area, with some low 90s still possible in the Wyoming Valley. Surface dew points rise into the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will feel slightly humid at times.

A northwest flow and lingering moisture/instability will still potentially allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms redeveloping Sunday morning and afternoon over the region. Shear and PWATs decrease though, so these should be just general, non-severe storms if enough instability can be tapped. With more clouds around and the frontal passage, Sunday will feature high temperatures back down into the 70s to low 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A much drier air mass from Canada settles back over the area through at least mid-week next week. This will be due to another short lived Omega block developing over the east-central Great Lakes and southern Canada. Initially this will bring a dry northerly flow and surface high pressure to Central NY and Northeast PA for Monday and Tuesday. We'll likely see mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s. By the middle of next week, the ensemble guidance shows the upper level block fading to an upper level ridge, but moving near or over our local area. This should act to keep our area mainly dry and partly to mostly sunny each day.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR throughout the TAF period with light winds. High confidence.

Outlook:

Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and storms.

Monday...Lower chances for restrictions and precipitation as high pressure starts to push in from the west.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.