textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this forecast update, only minor adjustments to PoPs, temperatures, winds and cloud cover based on the latest model guidance and data.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The first half of the holiday weekend will be cool and rainy, with temperatures starting to trend warmer on Monday.

2) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry and warmer Tuesday through through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today will pretty much be a washout for most of the forecast areas as a widespread moderate rainfall is expected across the region. That being said, for areas north of US-20 and especially north of the NY Thruway corridor, the steadier rain will likely hold off until the afternoon hours. The breezy (10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph), cool easterly flow will keep temperatures locked in the upper 40s to lower 50s for much of the area, except the I-90 corridor should reach the lower 60s where the rain holds off until 2-5 PM. Southeast winds peak this evening into tonight, between 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph along the hilltops possible (especially the Pocono plateau region of NE PA). Rainfall totals today into Sunday are expected to range from about 0.50 to 1.50 inches over the region.

While Sunday will still feature showers, the bulk of the rain will depart the area to the east by the afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies will persist, although there may be some brief clearing Sunday afternoon for parts of the Finger Lakes Region. It will be another cool day with highs only in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the area. Parts of the Finger Lakes Region may reach the upper 60s if partial clearing does occur.

The next fast moving front comes through Sunday night and Monday morning with additional showers likely. Once this feature passes by, it may once again dry out for most locations Monday afternoon with partly sunny skies. Temperatures will be much warmer on Monday with highs in the 70s area-wide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Tuesday onwards next week, an Omega block ridge begins to build over the Central US, while an upper low develops over Quebec. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the week in our area, but there will be the possibility for a few isolated showers at times. A westerly flow on Tuesday looks to turn more northwesterly through the rest of the week. Temperatures will continue the warming trend with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Slightly cooler conditions are expected for the end of the week, but still with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s expected.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rain will be spreading from southwest to northeast this morning into the early afternoon across all terminals. Some of the steadiest and heaviest rainfall is expected to develop between 13-17Z initially at AVP and ELM and spreading into BGM and ITH. This is expected to lead to IFR restrictions, mainly due to visibility. Confidence is lower in IFR visbys reaching SYR and RME during the afternoon, but can't be ruled out, especially after 19Z-20Z.

The steady rainfall is expected to taper off prior to the end of the TAF at all terminals except AVP, but showers continue to linger. Lower ceilings are expected to fill in in the wake of the steady rain leading to a mix of fuel-alt/IFR restrictions.

East to southeast winds are expected to increase later this morning into the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots.

Outlook:

Late tonight...Widespread rain showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Lingering scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

CLIMATE

The lowest high temperature recorded on 5/23 for each of the climate sites.

Avoca/Scranton- 53 in 1963 Forecast: 57 (midnight high) Binghamton- 43 in 1963 Forecast: 54 (midnight high) Syracuse-45 in 1963 Forecast:62

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.