textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Allowed for some slight chance PoPs this afternoon, mainly east of I-81 in the Catskills with cool air aloft and a departing upper trough leading to enough instability for a few pop up showers.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Noticeably cooler conditions will be in place today with a mix of clouds and sun along with a few isolated showers.

2) Low pressure moving south toward New England late Friday and Friday night will drag a cold front across the area with a reinforcing shot of cooler air Saturday and Saturday night.

3) Near to below average temperatures are expected early next week along with isolated shower chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level shortwave trough will be dropping south out of Canada and across our area today, drawing in noticeably cooler conditions. As the trough axis approaches prior to daybreak, there can be some isolated showers that develop around the Lake Plain that continue to drift south through the Finger Lakes region through the morning hours. Heading into the afternoon, with the trough working its way east, the cool air aloft and just enough moisture lingering before dry air pushes in, there can be some isolated instability showers that pop up east of I-81, mainly in the Catskills. Northwesterly winds will also be increasing this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph, along with a few higher gusts. Highs will be mainly in the 60s today, but closer to or into the lower 70s for the Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s to around 50 degrees under a mostly clear sky.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a slight recovery on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s, the next potent upper low drops south late Friday into Friday night and passes by to our east across New England. The surface front with this feature can bring a few spotty showers to the area later Friday afternoon into Friday night, but the bulk of the moisture looks to stay east. With the low off to our east Saturday, a strong northerly flow will inject a fresh bout of cool, Canadian air over the region along with a pop up shower or two. Gusty winds will develop Friday night into Saturday morning as well with the strongest winds expected around the Poconos with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the upper 50s to the mid 60s. The Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA will fare a little better with temperatures approaching 70 degrees. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s areawide, and some upper 30s can't be ruled out in the typical colder valley locations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Sunday through Tuesday of next week we start to see some variations in the upper levels with regards to placement and strength of waves of energy and upper lows around the region. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance is in support of the cool north to northwest flow continuing with near to below average temperatures Sunday through Tuesday in the 60s and low 70s. While there is no real good source of moisture over the area early next week, with low heights, the cool temperatures aloft and occasional increases in wrap around moisture off of the Atlantic, some isolated to scattered showers are expected. The first upper disturbance is expected to move through the area Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers, and the next upper level low could swing through sometime Tuesday/Tuesday night with more showers possible (again, with some uncertainty in timing). The upper level pattern finally starts to shift away from the Omega block (with troughing over the Northeast) by the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the 06z TAF period, with exception to ITH, who could see some brief MVFR cigs as a cluster of rain showers and drizzle moves through between 14Z and 16Z.

Gusty northwesterly winds will pick up this morning before decreasing in the evening.

Outlook: Thursday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR; potential for afternoon showers that could cause restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.