textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Consistent with the previous forecast, made some slight changes to the coverage of showers this weekend and temperatures early next week.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Very warm conditions will overspread the forecast area early next week. There will be a chance for thunderstorms especially heading into Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will move off the east coast this weekend. Flow on the backside of the high will lead to a gradual warming trend through early next week. The NBM continues to drop high temperatures slightly and is getting more in line with the ECMWF ensemble guidance and values from modeled 925 mb temperatures. This would get most locations well into the 80's Monday and Tuesday. While some ensemble differences are present with timing a cold frontal passage is still anticipated on Wednesday. Enough lift and moisture look present for the development of showers. Coverage looks more isolated to scattered Tuesday then more widespread Wednesday. Instability for thunderstorms is still somewhat questionable and will depend on the timing of the frontal boundary. Temperatures trend cooler Thursday and Friday with slow clearing.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all terminals. There is a low probability for at ELM for an hour or two before sunrise, but low level winds will increase after 6Z and this should be enough to limit fog formation early in the morning. Winds become southwesterly later tomorrow morning with gusts of 15-20 knots expected into the early afternoon. Locally stronger wind gusts are possible after 18Z.
Outlook:
Saturday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm late Saturday into Sunday, which may result in brief restrictions.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.
Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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