textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A cold weather advisory was issued for N. Oneida tonight through Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers continue through Saturday with light accumulations over north central NY.

2) Arctic air mass remains in place through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

West northwest flow over Lake Ontario allowed light lake effect snow showers to extend into central NY this morning. Flow off of the lake continues through Saturday with showers expected to persist. As the day progresses showers are expected to lift into north central NY before dropping back down overnight. Accumulations are mainly expected over S. Cayuga and Onondaga county. Areas slightly south of this could see a dusting or so. Onondaga county will see a general 1 to 3 inches possible through tomorrow morning with 4 inches or localized higher amounts possible on the northwestern portion of the county.

Key Message #2...

Another shot of cold air moves into our region today with 850 mb temperatures ranging -23 to -25 degrees C. This arctic air mass will remain over the region for the next several days. Temperatures today will struggle to climb with highs mainly in the single digits. Temperatures this morning are at or just below 0 for most of the area. Wind chills range -15 to -25 across central NY and northeast PA, with exception to N. Oneida where wind chills are as low as -25 to -30. An extreme cold watch remains in effect for N. Oneida with cold weather advisories elsewhere. Note some higher elevations across the region could briefly see wind chills near Extreme cold criteria this morning. This is especially true over higher elevations in the Poconos for southern Luzerne and Lackawanna county, as the PA threshold for criteria is lower.

There is potential for winds to slightly increase Saturday night into early Sunday morning especially for northeast PA. This along with some potential clearing along the Wyoming valley and Poconos mountain region could help bring wind chills near -20 degrees. A cold weather advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning for the entire region, but extreme cold products may be considered for portions of northeast PA.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The narrow lake effect snow bands have drifted south a bit early this morning, now aligning on a 310-320 degree NW flow. This has caused the narrow bands to focus south of SYR, down into the Finger Lakes including the ITH area, with 2-4SM vsbys at times.

Intermittent MVFR to IFR snow showers should continue at or INVOF ITH and BGM through the mid-morning hours, before scattering and weakening to flurries after 14/15z this morning. The lake effect snow is aligned well for BGM, but is having a tough time reaching that far inland due to the dry, arctic air mass in place. Still think BGM will see occasional MVFR vsby through the morning hours, with the light snow showers. Can't rule out some sporadic IFR restrictions here if the snow showers can push further south and east off the Cayuga Lake, so this was covered in a tempo through 15z this morning. The lake effect snow band shifts north by late morning and afternoon, becoming steadier MVFR at SYR, and eventually IFR conditions are expected at SYR; especially during the afternoon and evening hours when vsby could fall below 2SM. The lake snow then shifts back south and weakens after about 04s this evening, with SYR coming back up to MVFR Fuel Alt (CIGS).

RME, ELM and AVP should be mainly VFR this morning, although CIGs are borderline MVFR/VFR at AVP early. MVFR Lake clouds shift into ELM from 16-21z, and RME from 19z to 02z this afternoon and evening. RME will have a good chance at seeing lake effect snow shower activity increasing and could see IFR vsbys for a few hours around and after 22z.

CIGs fall back down to MVFR and MVFR Fuel Alt for all of our CNY TAF sites (except RME) late this evening and through the overnight in the cold NW flow pattern. A few flurries and light snow showers are also possible.

Expect NW winds 8-15 kts, with gusts up to 20kt through much of the taf period. By evening and overnight winds diminish under 10 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday and Saturday night...On and off lake effect snow showers with lingering MVFR/MVFR fuel alternate CIGs likely at most terminals.

Sunday through Tuesday..Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ009. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.