textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Other than a few possible sprinkles or flurries Thursday, our next round of areawide rain will move through Friday afternoon and evening, but it will not be heavy.

2) Temperatures climb above normal into this weekend, but then fall back below normal early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A fast-moving short wave will ride to the east/southeast from south-central Canada through the Great Lakes into the Northeast late Thursday through Friday. Out ahead of the short wave a ridge will amplify and lift a warm air mass north across PA and NY. Temperatures on Thursday will rise into the upper 30s and mid 40s...and then drop into the upper 20s Thu night. The temperatures respond even more on Friday with highs climbing into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

With most of the atmospheric column above freezing the precipitation will be almost entirely in the form of rain. Deep moisture will be modest with PWs around 0.7 to 0.9 inch. There will be enough forcing to trigger around a quarter to half of an inch of rain. This amount of rain is not expected to produce any hydro issues.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An amplifying ridge behind the departing short wave will trigger another push of warm air for the weekend. 850mb temperatures of +6 to +10 deg C mixing to the the surface will allow highs on Saturday and Sunday to rise into the upper 40s north of the NY Thruway (where a weak snowpack remains) and into the 50s near 60 to the south.

There is still some uncertainty concerning the onset of precipitation on Sunday as a cold front is expected to drop quickly south through the area. The timing of this front is not exactly certain, but will likely be defined by a period of rain initially, followed by a rain/snow mix Sunday night before ending.

The air mass behind the Canadian cold front looks to be quite dry and cold, which would likely drop temperatures back into the 30s and lower 40s for highs, and upper teens and lower 20s for over night lows for the first part of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High pressure shifting to the east today will allow winds to become SSWly through the day and into Thursday. Aside from a thin layer of high clouds and benign VFR strato-cumulus, conditions will remain quiet through 15z Thursday. The next weak system is expected to move in Thursday morning with increasing clouds and ceilings lowering to MVFR through 18Z.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon and Friday morning...Mainly VFR; a low chance for spotty rain/snow showers.

Friday afternoon through Saturday...A chance for additional rain/snow showers as a clipper moves through the region; low confidence on timing.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as another system moves through the area.

Monday...High pressure building in across the Northeast with VFR conditions expected aside from the potential for morning fog.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.