textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry weather continues for through most of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The dry pattern that has been in place for the last week plus will mostly continue into the weekend as high pressure and ridging dominates the region.

Behind an earlier passing cold front, a drier and briefly cooler airmass will advect into the region. This will cause reductions to Td/RH values today and combined with the dry pattern for the last week plus, some fire weather concerns will continue. However, winds are expected to remain mostly on the lighter side, helping to limit any more elevated concerns.

Dry weather will continue through the day on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front, extending southwest from a sfc low tracking from the Upper Great Lakes into Canada, will cross the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Guidance is starting to trend slightly wetter with the passing front, but most of the showers should be near/north of I90 for Thursday night into Friday morning. Ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures and dewpoint values will increase each day for Wednesday and Thursday as southerly flow develops.

Mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday afternoon through at least most of Sunday afternoon. A sfc low will track across the Ohio Valley and across the Central Great Lakes, spreading an area of showers across the region. This appears to mark a transitions to a wetter pattern starting early next week. There is still uncertainty in track of sfc low and timing, but it does appear as though our stretch of dry weather will come to an end late Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR cigs have largely lifted as the dry air ahead of the front mixes in as it moves south. ITH is really the only terminal that has good chances of MVFR cigs still, but those will lift after 4Z as the front moves away and dry air moves in from the north. ELM looks to remain on the windier side overnight so that should prevent fog but the subtle increase in moisture behind the front may be enough for some IFR vis if winds calm for a few hours with clouds clearing.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM possible each morning. Low chance for showers at KSYR and KRME Thursday night with a cold front moving through.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.