textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures today and this evening with clouds remaining steadfast and not much solar insolation being observed at any site. Fog was expanded for tomorrow night with high pressure in place.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another slug of heavy rain will push through the region tonight into Monday morning.

2) This upcoming week starts off warm, then trends cooler towards the end of the week into the weekend under dry NW flow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

While it has remained cloudy today, at least there has been a break in the rain for most of the area. Water vapor imagery is showing a healthy shortwave moving through the Great Lakes, which will progress through our area tonight. With a strengthening 250 mb jet streak in eastern Canada tonight, we will also be under the right entrance region of that jet. Chances of precipitation were raised to near 100 percent as well as the chance of thunder expanded, but still kept at slight chance. Forecast soundings do have elevated instability but it may not be deep enough to get lightning but it will be close given the added synoptic lift. With the recent rain, soils are nearly saturated so there is a small chance of localized flash flooding in prone areas with some of the heavier rain showers and potential thunderstorms.

For Memorial Day, the front associated with the shortwave is through by 10 AM with dry air advecting in behind it. There could be some lingering showers in the Catskills till noon but the afternoon and evening is looking dry with breaks of sun. High pressure centered overhead Monday night will likely lead to widespread fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Mid and upper level ridging builds in Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures warming back above average. An Omega block setting up in the US with a west and east coast trough and a central US ridge extending well into Canada will become the main influence of the pattern towards next weekend. Trends have continued to show pockets of cooler air descending down the eastern edge of the ridge into the Northeast. While unlikely, there has been a persistent signal of a pocket of sub freezing 850 mb air and if that does move through late week into the weekend, highs may be limited the high 40s and low 50s. Day time highs for the late week and weekend have been lowered into the high 60s with this trend towards a cooler late week airmass. Chances of precipitation still look limited with any meaningful moisture being kept to the south.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings are present as of 18Z and this is expected to continue through the afternoon despite the temporary lull in the rain showers. Another round of rain moves in this evening, which will lower ceilings to IFR for most terminals and perhaps IFR visbys as well. An embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out tonight as well, but confidence is too low to include thunder in the TAFs at this time. After the rain departs the area to the east Monday morning, lingering IFR ceilings will likely linger through most of the morning, before gradual improvement by the late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook:

Monday afternoon through Monday evening...Gradual improvement back to VFR.

Monday Night through early Tuesday morning...Patchy fog with associated restrictions possible.

Late Tuesday morning through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.