textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes were made due to a further south shift in storm track. QPF totals have been lowered with the heaviest rainfall now expected to remain south of the region, however rain will still be moderate to heavy at times across northeast PA today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring a period of steady rain and showers to the area today. Rainfall amounts between a half inch to one inch are expected.

2) The weather pattern is trending drier, with cooler, fall temperatures for much of next week. A stalled front and later a stronger low off the East Coast could keep shower chances nearby.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low pressure is now forecast to track a little further south across southern PA today, so this will keep the bulk of the heavier rainfall outside our CWA. Still on track to see a half inch to an inch of rain across the Poconos and into the Southern Catskills, but much less than what previous forecasts were advertising. With the lower rainfall totals, WPC has removed any mention of excessive rainfall.

Rainfall will come to an this evening behind the departing low. A very dry air mass will advect into the area from Canada late tonight into Monday. While there could be some patchy fog, it will most likely dissipate as drier air mixes down toward the surface. Overnight lows will be quite cool, dropping into the 40s to low 50s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry high pressure is expected to remain overhead on Monday. There is another weak shortwave that could bring a round of rain showers on Tuesday, but with the stalled front likely ending up further south than previous forecast, the best chances for rain showers will be in NEPA. The remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the model guidance, with the GFS lifting the stalled boundary further north with higher rain chances and the NAM keeping it south of the area and the Euro brings scattered showers north to the NY/PA border area Tuesday morning, but keeps it dry further north. Considering the high amount of spread and uncertainty in the guidance, the official forecast used the blended ensemble guidance, which brings a few showers southern and western portions of the area... and allows temperatures to reach the upper 50s to mid-60s for highs.

For the remainder of the week, high pressure looks like it will become established for our area. This will keep it mostly dry, under northeasterly flow. Wednesday and Thursday look partly sunny and a bit cool with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s each night.

By Friday, the 12Z models are keep the track of a coastal low further out into the Atlantic. As the low becomes vertically stacked it may stall and meander around and possibly bring rounds of showers into southern New England, but mostly spare our region.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Low pressure pushes through the region today with widespread rain and associated restrictions. IFR to VLIFR conditions are forecast at most sites through this morning into this afternoon due to ceilings. Rain comes to an end early this afternoon with some improvement possible to ceilings, but fog and low stratus may settle back in overnight with VLIFR conditions at ELM and BGM. Elsewhere, conditions should improve to MVFR this evening and likely VFR at RME and SYR. Forecast confidence is high for restrictions into this afternoon, but low for tonight into Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR expected

Monday Night and Tuesday...Possible restrictions with showers, especially NE PA and perhaps the NY Southern Tier terminals.

Wednesday and Thursday...Likely VFR most of the time.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.