textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A cold Canadian air mass will continue to pour into the Northeast through the weekend and into early next week with persistent on and off light snow. A milder stretch of weather is anticipated to begin around mid-week with temperatures rising and chances for rain and snow later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Flow aloft will shift more westerly tonight and southwesterly on Saturday taking with it the persistent lake effect snows as they shift more along the long axes of Lakes Ontario and Erie. This directional change in the wind will bring a brief end to impactful weather tonight and much of Saturday for CNY and NEPA. Another trough will dig through the Western Great Lakes region with deeper moisture and energy arriving late in the afternoon Saturday. A redevelopment of light snow is possible by days end, but the bulk of precipitation associated with this system is expected on Saturday night. The Winter Weather Advisory will continue for Northern Oneida county through this evening as the snow plume reintensifies for one last gasp before exiting overnight. Elsewhere should just experience occasional flurries through the Finger Lakes, Twin Tiers and portions of the Catskills today.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

The upper trough will sweep through Saturday night and Sunday while remaining positively tilted. The bulk of its synoptic forcing pivots generally south of our region although some light snow is expected to develop over NEPA and the far Southern Tier of NY near the base of the trough axis. Surface development looks weak with a limited moisture return so expecting only a broad area of 1-3 inches of accumulation in these southern zones. By Sunday, the primary upper low shifts east of the region, allowing another push of colder air to move south. This pattern will once again be favorable for lake effect snow showers, with colder temperatures limiting highs to the mid teens to lower 20s. Yet another clipper low is on the horizon for Monday as it moves across Ontario. Light snow seems likely to break out during the afternoon in the warm advection ahead of this feature. Moisture will be limited outside of lake effect areas so right now another 1 or 2 inches is possible by Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

By late Tuesday night, the overall pattern begins to flatten as zonal flow becomes established. The locked in cold air will retreat in this flow regime with a warming trend expected through the end of the week. The fast zonal pattern will continue to eject a series of embedded Pacific waves toward the Northeast. Precipitation type probabilities will start to lean toward rain over snow or wintry mixes, however, there is still a lot of uncertainty within the ensemble spread patterns, so will need to monitor the trends through the next several days. Followed the NBM guidance exclusively during this period.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

An MVFR stratus deck with some light snow has spread through CNY into the Southern Tier. This should slowly dissipate and scatter out by around 21Z for ITH, ELM, and BGM. IFR or worse vis from snow is likely at RME through most of the afternoon before the snow band lifts north after 21Z with light snow remaining. SYR will likely also have some light snow leading to MVFR vis through the afternoon but the main band with IFR stays to the north.

A weak area of high pressure builds in tonight with VFR conditons region wide from roughly 0Z to 12Z tomorrow before another front moves in from the west bringing light snow and MVFR cigs and vis.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers. Most widespread coverage Saturday night and Sunday. Highest coverage shifts to KITH,KELM and KBGM later Sunday and Sunday night.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Potential frontal passage with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009.