textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered for tonight and Sunday night as skies are expected to be mostly clear. Temperatures were also lowered for Tuesday due to increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances. Due to dry conditions on Monday, dewpoints were lowered.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will generally keep conditions dry this weekend though spotty showers are also possible, especially across Northeast Pennsylvania.

2) Temperatures and humidity will increase next week leading to elevated heat indices.

3) Showers and thunderstorms return by Tuesday with multiple rounds possible through the midweek period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure will be in control through the weekend. However, A frontal boundary south of the region will support isolated to scattered showers today and tomorrow. The best chances will be across Northeast PA and the Catskills, though some showers could develop in the Southern Tier as well. Instability will be quite limited both afternoons, though isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible. Patchy fog at night will be possible as skies will be mostly clear and winds become calm. Added moisture from any rain showers should also aid in fog development.

Temperatures throughout the weekend will be near normal for this time of year. Today will be fairly pleasant with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Sunday will be a touch warmer with most of the region reaching the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s both nights. Adjustments were made to lower the nightly temperatures as skies will be clear and winds will be light.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A ridge will begin to build into Eastern US this weekend and into early next week. As it does, 500mb heights will rise to near 590dm and low-level warm air advection increases. This will lead to a significant warm up by midweek. Temperatures will be above average throughout the week, climbing into the 90s during the midweek period (Tue-Thu). After Monday, dewpoints rise to the 60s and 70s. This will push heat indices several degrees above the temperatures, potentially into the triple digits, and heat headlines will likely be needed. There is uncertainty if cloud cover and showers will keep temperatures slightly below the forecast. This uncertainty can be seen in ensemble guidance as there continues to be large spread between members.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The hot and humid conditions will support an unstable environment during the afternoon hours next week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Model guidance show MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg for in the region along with 20 to 30 kts of shear. Multiple shortwaves moving through the region will support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models have an EML plume moving in on Tuesday that could provide additional support for thunderstorm development. Given the CAPE and shear values, stronger thunderstorms will be possible with downbursts being the main hazard.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected throughout the day today and likely through this evening. Isolated light rain showers will be possible throughout the day today at KAVP, but these will likely not result in restrictions. After 06Z tonight, confidence is rather high that widespread fog will occur, which will result in at least MVFR visby restrictions and likely also IFR visby restrictions at the Central NY terminals.

Outlook:

Sunday through Monday...VFR likely during the day, valley fog possible each morning.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964) 7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018) 7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.