textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances of precipitation overnight with a warm front lifting in.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Upper level ridging is transitioning to zonal flow with weak warm air advection through Saturday. Intermittent rain showers are possible tonight and again Friday as a front moves through.

2) Northwest flow and high pressure builds back in this weekend into next week helping fall weather return to the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The upper level ridge is flattening out today with flow aloft becoming zonal and low and mid level flow becoming southwesterly. A warm front is lifting into the area tonight, with a few light rain showers possible along it, mainly across western NY into the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures at 850 mb warms to around 15C to 18C which will support well above average temperatures. Due to the warm air advection with deeper moisture moving in, clouds will limit how warm it could get Thursday but if we can get a few hours of sun, then a few pockets of 80 degrees is possible, mainly in NEPA or along the NY Thruway corridor. Friday will have a front dropping in from the NW with showers spreading in. NEPA may see more sun ahead of the front with rain not arriving till late afternoon or early evening. There is not much instability in place despite the late season warmth, and there is not a lot of forcing along the front so thunderstorms look unlikely Friday but a rumble of thunder cant be completely ruled out. The speed of the front and lighter stratiform precipitation, rainfall amounts are expected to be a half inch or less so flooding and flash flooding is not a concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

This weekend into early next week, a long wave trough tries to set up in the Northeast US. There is a couple chances of 850 mb temps falling below 0C early next week. There is also good chances of a strong surface high being in place as well so the first widespread frost/freeze is possible if skies can remain clear Monday night and especially Tuesday night.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, a warm front will push through the region tomorrow morning and bring isolated showers with possible MVFR restrictions. Cloud cover tonight should prevent fog from developing, so it has not been included at this time.

Outlook...

Thursday..Scattered showers developing across Central NY, which may bring occasional restrictions.

Friday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.