textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is a potential for some pockets of freezing rain across parts of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. While Winter Weather Advisories have not been issued at this time due to low confidence and marginal temperatures, it is possible some may be needed as we get closer.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another round of rain is expected late tonight, through Thursday, and into Friday morning. Some pockets of freezing rain will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning for parts of the Catskills and the Mohawk Valley.

2) Spring-like conditions are expected late this week into early next week with above normal temperatures and multiple chances for additional rain showers. River rises are expected, with an increasing risk of possible flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure continues to bring dry weather this afternoon. After morning clouds and fog, sunshine has broken out across most of the area. This dry weather will last through this evening, before rain begins to move back into the area late tonight/early Thursday morning.

A stationary frontal boundary stalled across the Mid-Atlantic Region will allow for multiple waves of low pressure to move through our region beginning late tonight/early Thursday morning. This will bring a widespread rainfall to the area, especially from the Southern Tier of NY southward into Northeast PA. With high temperatures on Thursday likely in the upper 30s to mid 40s, the form of precipitation during the daytime hours on Thursday will be mainly rain. However, temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will likely fall to near freezing across the higher elevations of the Catskills and the Mohawk Valley, which would potentially allow for some freezing rain to occur during this timeframe. With very marginal temperatures, confidence in seeing any impacts from this freezing rain is quite low at this time and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory was not issued for now. In fact, it will only take temperatures to be a degree or two warmer for freezing rain to not occur at all across those areas.

With the steady rainfall and mild temperatures, snowmelt will be accelerated wherever snow cover still remains. This will result in the potential for some flooding as we head into the weekend (see next key message).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Due to the aforementioned rounds of rainfall, combined with warmer weather, rivers and streams are expected to rise late this week into early next week. In fact, temperatures on Saturday will be the warmest we have seen since November for most areas with highs forecast to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s east of I-81 and lower 60s to near 70 degrees west of I-81. This temperature forecast does come with a bit of uncertainty (especially east of I-81) due to a backdoor cold front likely being situated somewhere near, or just east of our area.

A cold front is expected to move through the region Saturday night into Sunday, which will bring the potential for widespread rain showers. PWATs will likely be a bit over one inch, which is anomalously high for this time of the year. As a result, locally heavy downpours will certainly be possible. Rivers and streams will need close monitoring during this timeframe for potential flooding, including possible isolated ice jams.

River ensemble forecasts show the potential of several points entering action stage, even possible minor flooding at a few points. Recent thinning of ice has occurred, but a risk of ice jams is still present. Whatever potential there is, will reveal itself Friday through the weekend because river rises will be significant enough to break up and move the ice. If the ice is thick enough, there could be isolated jams and associated erratic water levels at bridges and pinch points. But if not, the silver lining will be the flushing through of most, if not all of the ice in the rivers.

Despite the passage of a cold front. temperatures Sunday remain above normal for this time of the year (mainly in the 50s). Southwesterly flow quickly returns by Monday, allowing temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s early next week. While it is quite far out, it is worth noting that the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week does have the potential to be very warm with widespread 60s and even 70s for highs possible.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Stratus clouds are finally scattering out and dissipating across the area early this afternoon. There could still be some bkn IFR/MVFR CIGs through 18-19z, before conditions become VFR areawide this afternoon and early evening.

Tonight looks like a repeat of this morning. Model soundings are showing low-level moisture trapped under an inversion which would favor low ceilings and fog again, especially at BGM and AVP. Areas of fog and stratus are forecast to develop after 00z this evening, and especially after 03z.

That is on top of another system moving in from the south, which will spread rain, low CIGS (IFR/LIFR) and reduced visibility (MVFR to IFR) starting around 08-12z Thursday for BGM, AVP, ELM and ITH. The steady rain and fog continue most of the day on Thursday, with IFR/LIFR restrictions expected. Further north, the rain may not reach SYR and RME until closer to 18z, with mainly MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt conditions here.

Outlook:

Thursday Afternoon - Saturday...Multiple chances for rain and fog with fluctuating restrictions throughout the week.

Sunday and Monday...Improving to VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.