textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Model guidance is zeroing in on the start time of the rain on Sunday, so made adjustments based on the latest data. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a few isolated lake enhanced rain showers this morning over Oneida County, it will become mostly sunny areawide. Dry, mostly sunny and mild weather continues through the day on Saturday.

2) Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will overspread the area Sunday into Sunday night. Between a half inch to one inch of rain is expected during this time for most locations.

3) Drier, but mostly cloudy weather is expected for Columbus Day, with another chance for showers arriving by Tuesday. Dry and slightly cool weather returns for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cooler, broad cyclonic flow continues crossing the lower Great Lakes early this morning. There is just enough moisture and lake induced instability for a few isolated pop up showers to form this morning across Oneida County in the west-northwest flow pattern. Otherwise, the rest of the area should see sunny to mostly sunny skies today along with slightly breezy winds, between 10-20 mph; a few higher gusts to 25 mph will be possible near I-90, east to the Mohawk Valley region. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the 60s areawide. Tonight features high pressure, diminishing winds and cooler temperatures. There will be some valley fog developing, and frost for the colder locations (in-active growing season zones).

Saturday sees the surface high sliding east toward southern New England and a high amplitude 500mb ridge moving overhead. This will keep conditions dry, mainly sunny and warm, with a light south wind.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We will see increasing clouds late Saturday night as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias push north into the Tennessee Valley. The moisture will stream well out ahead of the remnant center, reaching into west- central PA by daybreak Sunday morning. With more clouds and a steady southeast wind, it looks to stay milder in the mid-40s to low 50s Saturday night.

The rain is expected to quickly overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the day on Sunday. Model guidance has come into better agreement on this timing, with the rain reaching Scranton-- Elmira and Hornell during the mid to late morning hours. Then, reaching Penn Yan, Ithaca and Binghamton by early afternoon. The rain eventually reaches Syracuse, Rome and Cooperstown by late Sunday afternoon. There could of course still be some fluctuations to this expected timing as this is still 3 days out in time. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be mainly between 0.50 to 1.00 inches from this system, as it will be fairly fast moving. The steady rain tapers to showers Sunday night. Temperatures will be held down by the clouds and showers, with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Generally light southeast winds between 6-15 mph are forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Some uncertainty still remains, but overall the NBM ensemble guidance is keeping the area dry on Columbus Day, but with plenty of lingering clouds around. Temperatures are forecast to be warm, in the mid-60s to low 70s despite the clouds. The next fast moving front will try to push in from the northwest, sometime on or around Tuesday next week. With southwest winds out ahead of the front the latest guidance is showing rather warm temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s once again. Early indications are that high pressure and dry weather return for the area Wednesday and next Thursday with seasonable temperatures expected.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period, but there is some lingering fog at RME this morning that could persist for another hour.

Mostly sunny skies expected today with the main concern being gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon around 20 knots.

Fog will be possible again tonight with highest confidence for restrictions at KELM.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible in the morning hours at ELM.

Sunday through Monday...Showers with associated restrictions likely.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system looks to approach the region with showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.