textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF, temperatures and snow amounts over the weekend with the periodic lake effect showers and weak shortwave disturbances moving through.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and snow showers around through the remainder of the weekend.

2) High pressure builds into the area resulting in drier and warmer weather for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Continued northwest flow coupled with several mid-level disturbances will contribute to several rounds of light rain and snow showers through Sunday. Continue to favor eastern Finger Lake locations eastward to the hills south of Syracuse near Tully into Cortland and Madison counties for any localized snowfall of an inch or two tonight into Sunday morning. Finger Lake moisture and terrain make these locations favored over other spots. Temperatures generally look to remain in the 30's to perhaps low 40's through Sunday.

The 850mb ridge axis does not pass through our area until Monday night. Therefore, we remain locked in the cool, cloudy northwest flow pattern on Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see pockets of drizzle lingering into Monday under the thick stratus cloud deck. Temperatures remain cool only in the 40's on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Tuesday through Saturday: General upper level ridging remains over the eastern US. There could be a very weak disturbance or front passing through toward Friday. Otherwise, high pressure looks to remain in control right through Saturday (if current timing holds). Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend through the week, reaching about 15 degrees above average for daytime highs by Friday and Saturday (50's and low 60's). With the generally clear skies and light winds, overnight lows will be on the seasonably cool side, mainly in the 30's through the week. Overall a very pleasant and fair stretch of late fall weather looks to be in store.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions continue this afternoon with occasional fluctuations up and down to VFR and IFR. There are also some scattered lake effect snow showers around, primarily impacting KITH and KBGM.

Snow showers will mix with rain through the afternoon from the lower to higher elevations. A mixture of lower MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs expected, especially within showers, and over the higher terrain. Restrictions are expected to last through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday...Lingering scattered rain and snow showers at the Central NY terminals, mainly in the morning with associated restrictions possible.

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.