textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures and dewpoints for today. Otherwise, forecast package has minor edits.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Today will be the last day of fully dry conditions. Very warm, above average temperatures can also be expected again today.

2) A cool front is expected to move through the area tomorrow with scattered rain showers and storms. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average through the weekend.

3) Another Omega block redevelops across the US, but the ridge over the central US is not expected to climb as high into Canada as last week. This will allow for a warming trend through the week as warm air moves over the ridge and into the Northeast US.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today will be the last day of fully dry conditions, with above average temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with potential for some valley locations in NE PA to hit 90 degrees. We will continue to see boundary later mixing, resulting in dewpoints remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another beautiful, summer-like day in store to end the work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The ridge that has dominated the weather pattern for the past week will finally break down, allowing a shortwave and associated cool front to move into the area on tomorrow. Rain showers and isolated storms are expected to be scattered in nature, resulting in popcorn-like development through the day.

The timing of the front will determine the potential for severe weather. With the front passing during the afternoon hours, this should allow for enough instability (up to 1000 J/kg) to develop ahead of the front, with an area of 0-6km bulk shear between 30-40kts forecast to move in along the front. Mid level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km and the modest CAPE and shear could allow for a few clusters of storms to become organized and produce damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a Marginal Risk for tomorrow, and the current forecasted parameters match this risk. If the passage comes earlier in the day, the chances for the development of severe weather could decrease, or if cloudy skies during the morning do not scatter out and last into the early afternoon, limiting instability across the area.

With PWATs ahead of the front currently modeled to be in the 1.5-1.75in range, this could lead to potentially heavy downpours during storms as they move across an area

Storm chances should wane in the evening as instability decreases, but isolated rain showers remain be possible tomorrow night through Sunday afternoon as an upper level low slides into New England on Sunday. The trough axis will push through during the afternoon, and with cold air aloft, a few scattered storms cannot be ruled out along and east of I-81, especially with northerly flow providing upslope into the Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another Omega Block is expected to develop at the beginning of next week, but it does not look to be as strong as the block from this past week. The ridge over the central US is not expected to build as far north into Canada, which should allow warm air from the Central and SW US to climb over the ridge axis and spill into the region. Temps in the upper 70s to low 80s at the beginning of the week will warm to the mid 80s to low 90s by the middle to end of the week.

The beginning of the week is expected to be dry, but, depending on the position of the ridge, we could see some rain showers and storms move back into the area during the late week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR throughout the TAF period with light winds. IFR haze reports at KELM likely due to construction.

Outlook:

Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and storms.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.