textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made to the previous forecast. Minor adjustments to cloud cover and PoPs this afternoon and early evening were made. Fog was added to the forecast Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures are trending warmer for Wednesday next week out ahead of an incoming front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, fall like pattern with near average temperatures this weekend into early next week.

2) Mid next week there is the potential for a stronger area of low pressure to pass north of the Great Lakes with a brief warm up ahead of it along with thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level trough has moved in with drier NW flow in place. Some moisture around today will help a few light rain showers develop, mainly across higher terrain of CNY and the Catskills. Day time highs in the low to mid 70s and morning lows in the low 50s and upper 40s will make it feel a bit more fall like over the next few days. Fog formation in the deeper river valleys of the Twin Tiers and Catskills is likely the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper level ridging looks to briefly build back in Tuesday into Wednesday with temperatures warming back above normal. A stronger low pressure system forms in the lee of the northern Rockies and moves north of the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. The low has trended a little weaker and farther north so the cold front associated with it is not as strong as previous days. Still, there is some model agreement of some instability and shear ahead of it so if the frontal passage can be in the afternoon on Wednesday then there is a chance for some stronger storms. Timing is still uncertain with the frontal passage as the ensemble peak CAPE + Shear bullseye is more in the Ohio River Valley into western NY.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Guidance continues to show a strong signal for restrictions developing overnight as fog and low ceilings form at most terminals, with SYR and AVP the main exceptions. BGM/ITH and ELM have the greatest potential for IFR restrictions overnight. Conditions should gradually improve after 13/14Z Sunday morning, with VFR returning toward the end of the period.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.