textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased PoPs for showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning. Another round of lake effect showers will develop later today, with perhaps a few isolated showers making it as far south as the Susquehanna region of Central NY. Timing of the incoming rain Sunday into Sunday night continues to fluctuate.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry, breezy conditions expected over the next couple of days with warmer temperatures. The I-90 corridor and northward has the best chance to see scattered rain showers today, tonight and into Friday morning.

2) Sunday, and Sunday night has trended wetter with the remnant moisture moving in from tropical storm Isaias.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today will feature a breezy and cooler west northwest flow over the area. 850mb temperatures will be down around +4-5C through the day behind the cold front. This will open the door to some lake effect showers developing, especially as some modest instability forms from daytime heating this afternoon. Some isolated showers could make it as far south as the Twin Tiers by late afternoon. Otherwise, conditions will be partly sunny north to mostly sunny south into NE PA. The west-northwest winds will be breezy, between 8-15 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph possible. The wind diminish tonight, but scattered lake effect rain showers will continue to be possible along and north of I-90 overnight. It will be seasonably cool with lows in the 40s. Heading into Friday, there could be isolated lingering lake effect showers up north in the morning, otherwise high pressure builds from the upper Ohio Valley, bringing drier and mainly sunny conditions. Northwest winds continue, a little breezy still. Mild with highs in the 60s for most locations.

It will be cooler Friday night, with frost up north where the growing season has already ended. Lows range in the 30s to low 40s for most locations in the forecast area. Patchy fog also possible.

Saturday looks to feature high pressure, sunny weather, with winds shifting out of the south up to 10 mph in the afternoon. It will be warmer with highs in the mid-60s to low 70s expected. Overall, a fantastic start to the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains a good deal of uncertainty on the exact track and timing of the remnants of Isaias as it heads north-northeast for the end of the weekend. The latest ensemble guidance has slowed down a touch, but some of the deterministic guidance is faster bringing the rain in. At this time it appears the rain will quickly overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the day on Sunday; with periods of rain continuing into Sunday night, before exiting east by Monday morning. Exact rainfall amounts and any thunderstorm potential remains uncertain this far out in time. Probabilities for 1"+ of rainfall are around 25-40% across the region at this time, with a 10% chance for 2" of rain near the Wyoming valley region of NE PA (lower elsewhere). The mean 24 hour rainfall amounts are between 0.75 to 1" from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA, with around 0.6 inches further north toward I-90.

PWATs rise up to at least 1.50 inches, but some even deeper tropical moisture may be nearby. This will certainly bare watching as we get closer in time.

After this system passes through it looks to remain mild Monday and Tuesday with renewed shower chances entering the forecast. A fairly strong cold front may pass through the area later on Tuesday, bringing much cooler, fall air to the area by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period, with the exception for some brief fog at RME this morning and possibly fog at ELM tomorrow morning. Winds will turn gusty out of the WNW later this morning as a cold front exits the region. Winds will turn light again around sunset this evening.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible in the morning hours.

Sunday through Monday...Scattered rain showers with associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.