textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Today will be a warmer than average day with no precipitation until tonight, where the next area of low pressure will bring widespread rain showers that will continue into tomorrow.

2) The area of low pressure from today will deepen as it moves just off the coast tomorrow night. With colder temperatures filtering in, mixed rain and snow can be expected starting overnight Thursday, and persisting into the early weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today will be the last day of no precipitation to be expected across the area. Slightly warmer than average temperatures can be expected, with light winds. An Alberta clipper-like shortwave will interact with another shortwave in the late morning/early afternoon over the Great Lakes, which will lead to the formation of a more organized system. As it approaches the area, it will bring widespread rain showers to the area starting overnight tonight, and lasting through the day tomorrow as it moves over the area. Since temperatures will remain above freezing overnight tonight and into tomorrow, precipitation will remain as rain. Though, this won't be the case heading into tomorrow night as temperatures begin to drop, which will be discussed in Key Message 2.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As the main aforementioned low pressure system moves west to east across the area tomorrow, we start to see temperatures drop tomorrow night from northerly flow from Canada. As the system continues to bring precipitation across the area, we'll start to see precipitation types vary as temperatures approach freezing, and dip below freezing. Going into Friday, temperatures only climb above freezing at peak heating times, but will drop back below freezing later that evening. Through tomorrow night and Friday, any snow accumulation will be up to an inch in higher elevation areas, and up to a few tenths of an inch for most other areas. However, with the ground remaining quite warm, it's possible for most places to see any frozen precipitation melt pretty soon after hitting the ground, especially in the daytime hours. For higher elevations, it may stick a little longer, but with high temperatures on Friday being above freezing almost everywhere, snow accumulation isn't likely to stick well.

The center broad trough moves south and over the Great Lakes on Friday and a portion of Saturday, which may elongate the time of lighter precipitation, especially for Saturday.

High pressure builds in late this weekend into early next week with a gradual moderation of temperatures while remaining mostly dry.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Conditions will be VFR at all terminals this TAF period. Guidance has MVFR ceilings near RME and even ITH between 06 and 12z. With it being closer to RME, the tempo group was kept in with this update. Rain showers will move in from the west after 00z Thursday. There will be restrictions as well though guidance does not bring them in until after the end of this TAF period.

Winds have become calmer though there continues to be a few rogue gusts, mainly at BGM. By 10 to 12z, winds are expected to be light and variable.

Outlook...

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

Sunday...Perhaps a few lingering showers, otherwise mainly VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.