textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slight increase in anticipated rain amounts Friday afternoon through evening. We are still not anticipating hydrology problems despite some resultant river rises. Also, with the next system, confidence is increasing for rain mixing over to wet snow late Sunday night into early Monday for parts of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Other than a few possible flurries or sprinkles today in Central New York, our next round of areawide rain will drop across the area Friday afternoon and evening with a passing disturbance.

2) Temperatures climb above normal into this weekend, but then fall back below normal early next week. During that transition, rain potentially changes over to some wet snow Sunday night into early Monday for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper trough axis over the area today, will lift to our northeast. However, as it does so, shortwaves will still be translating through the region. There is a lot of low level dry air to overcome, so despite radar echoes across the area overnight, almost all of it has been virga not even reaching the ground. Each passing shortwave though will attempt to top- down moisten the atmospheric column, eventually succeeding in causing a few flurries today at least for parts of Central NY. These will mix with or change to sprinkles as temperatures reach upper 30s to mid 40s for highs. Precipitation will likely not reach Northeast PA though it will still be mostly cloudy. However, our next areawide rain is anticipated to arrive Friday.

A fast-moving better-defined short wave will ride to the east/southeast from south-central Canada through the Great Lakes into the Northeast Friday. Out ahead of the short wave a brief ridge will amplify and lift a warm air mass north across PA and NY, sending temperatures into the mid 40s to mid 50s. While much of the area will get away with a dry morning, midday through afternoon the shortwave will crash into the area with a good batch of rain, lingering into Friday night. Model trends are yielding about a half to three quarters of an inch of rain in Central NY, and quarter to half inch in Northeast PA. This will be enough to cause muddy ground and eventual river rises. River ensembles show potential of a few points reaching back above action stage yet very low probability of reaching minor flood stage. Sherburne and Cortland generally around only 10-15 percent odds for that with all other points even less.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An amplifying ridge behind the departing short wave will trigger another push of warm air for the weekend. 850mb temperatures of +6 to +10 deg C mixing to the the surface will allow highs on Saturday and Sunday to rise into the upper 40s north of the NY Thruway (where a weak snowpack remains) and well into the 50s to lower 60s south, especially Sunday just ahead of the next stronger cold front.

Models are trending towards a later Sunday cold front passage if not even Sunday evening. However, there is also increasing confidence for a more amplifying pattern - part of the reason for a later timing - with a pretty decent punch of colder air late Sunday night into Monday. So after rain develops Sunday afternoon, it is appearing more probable for it to mix with or change to wet snow Sunday night into early Monday before ending, at least for a chunk of the area. The National Blend of Models has 40-50 percent chance for an inch or more of accumulation for much of Central NY especially higher terrain, and 20-30 percent odds of reaching 3 inches. However, even farther south, a measurable amount snow currently has 35-50 percent odds for reaching across the Twin Tiers-Northern Poconos-Catskills even if not amounting to much. Something to keep an eye on for next Monday morning commute.

The air mass behind the cold front looks to be quite dry and cold, which would likely drop temperatures back into the 30s and lower 40s for highs, and upper teens to mid 20s for over night lows for the first part of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Radar returns are showing up across the area, but no precipitation is reaching the ground as dewpoints are 10-15 degrees lower than the temperatures so anything falling into this dry layer is evaporating. VFR conditions are present across all terminals and should last until late morning.

A weak shortwave will move through this afternoon, bringing MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings to all CNY terminals starting in the late morning into the overnight hours. Some light rain/snow showers may develop across RME mid to late afternoon. SYR may see some showers as well but confidence is not high enough to include showers in the TAF at this time.

Outlook:

Friday through Saturday...A chance for additional rain/snow showers as a clipper moves through the region; low confidence on timing.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as another front pushes through the area from the NW.

Monday...High pressure building in across the Northeast with VFR conditions expected aside from the potential for morning fog.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.