textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased shower and thunderstorm chances across central New York for this afternoon and early evening. No other significant changes were made with the this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Surface high pressure builds over the region today. However, an upper level trough, passing mid-level short wave and diurnal heating will kick off scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

2) The weekend will be mostly dry with a few isolated showers as an upper trough remains over the northeast U.S. More widespread rainfall will be possible for the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure builds in today. However, an upper trough will remain over the Northeast U.S. through the weekend. A short wave is progged to push across the area this afternoon and early this evening. Although moisture is limited, there should be enough forcing and instability with diurnal heating, that scattered afternoon showers and storms develop across central NY. Forecast soundings show an inverted V, with plenty of dry air near the surface, so there is some potential that a few showers and storms produce strong gusty winds. Upper troughing will likely remain over the region through the weekend. This should keep the potential for at least isolated showers during max heating in the afternoon on both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain cooler, with highs in the 70s and lows in the lower 50s.

Key Message 2...

The next chance for more widespread rain will come on Monday. However, there continues to be a lot of uncertainty on the exact track of this system. Nonetheless, NBM is still showing rain chances over 80 percent. GFS has trended further south with the 0Z run, but still brings widespread rainfall for the Southern Tier and NEPA. Ensembles also show at least moderate potential for a widespread soaking rain starting Monday morning and continuing throughout the day. Euro ENS shows moisture making it further north into Central NY, while the NAEFS keeps more significant moisture to our south and grazing NEPA. Which solution comes to fruition will have big implications on the overall forecast. Not necessarily in the rain chances, but the Euro ENS has PWATs of 2+ standard deviations above normal for this time of year, and would produce much higher rainfall amounts than the NAEFS solution. This will be something to monitor over the coming days as the forecast unfolds.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR cigs were removed for the next few hours as cloud bases have started to rise. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals into early afternoon. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms develop after 18Z, mainly across CNY. Right now, prob30s were used at ELM and BGM, then tempos at ITH and SYR where confidence is higher in shower activity near the terminal. RME may be just far enough north to avoid showers, and AVP is likely too far south for any showers.

Outlook:

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, though isolated to scattered showers possible each afternoon with associated intermittent restrictions. Westerly wind gusts could exceed 20 knots Saturday afternoons.

Late Sunday night through Tuesday...Wave of low pressure with rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder. Rain chances decrease Tuesday but lingering showers will still be possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.