textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very few changes to the near term forecast with this update. Focus is more on dialing in on the upcoming mid-week heat and potential pitfalls to accuracy.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated showers or a thunderstorm may occur primarily over NE PA and the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Catskills this afternoon.

2) Heat and humidity will be increasing through this week leading to elevated heat indices.

3) With the heat and humidity, Tuesday through the end of the week could have daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level ridging builds in today through Monday and beyond. Conditions for precipitation are mostly unfavorable with increasing subsidence and neutral to slightly dry advection expected. Monday looks to have the best chance of being totally dry across the forecast area...but Sunday afternoon still poses some potential for isolated shower or thunderstorm activity in NEPA and the Catskills, Alleghany Plateau from terrain based mechanisms or being in closer proximity to the stationary front along the Mason-Dixon line.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong ridge builds into the Eastern US this next week with temperatures and dew points gradually increasing each day through late week. 500 mb heights rise over 590 dm with 850 mb temperatures greater than 20C so afternoon highs will be well into the 90s for most of the region starting Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Dew points look to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s as well. NBM blends have mid 70s for dew points which appears to be a high bias, especially where westerly component winds are a drying downslope off the Allegany Plateau. That said, moisture in the boundary layer can sweep into the lake plain from WNY where higher dewpoint values across much of the Ohio River Valley are well above average so the Finger Lakes and Syracuse area could see oppressive mid-70s dewpoints. One thing that could limit our warmer temperatures and prevent upper 90s and even a few 100s in urban areas for air temperatures will be afternoon convection. Despite the ridge, there will not be a lot of CIN so showers and storms could develop early afternoon and help keep highs slightly cooler.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With the hot and humid conditions, showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from Tuesday onward. We are not too far from the edge of the ridge where shortwaves propagating around the top of the ridge could trigger storms. Tuesday will be a day to watch as there is an Elevated Mixed Layer moving in, with 500-700 mb lapse rates near 8C/km. Shear does not look to be too impressive, between 20-25 knots, but still hail and downburst are a possibility with any deep convection that takes advantage of the lapse rates. Headed into the rest of the week, MLCAPE tops out around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with not much CIN so a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely. Shear remains low through this period but of course, microburst will still be possible but widepsread severe storms is not expected. Some relief from the heat is expected next weekend as upper heights fall and a weak front drops south from Canada.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF period. Isolated light rain showers will be possible through the evening hours at KAVP, but these will likely not result in restrictions.

Model guidance hints at fog developing across the area tonight, but this will be highly depend on cloud cover. Clear skies are possible early on in the evening, but clouds are expected to fill in overnight especially over northeast PA and most of central NY. RME has the best chance to stay mostly clear. Otherwise IFR TEMPO groups were used at sites where cross over temperature is reached.

Outlook:

Sunday through Monday...VFR likely during the day, valley fog possible each morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964) 7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018) 7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.