textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the afternoon forecast update. Low RH and breezy south winds gusting around 30 mph today will sustain our concern for favorable fire weather conditions this afternoon. Fire weather conditions may return on Saturday, so this will be monitored as we progress closer.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will maintain mainly dry weather through Friday morning.

2) A cold front with limited moisture will pass through on Friday, with rain showers and slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday. Conditions warm back up for the second half of the weekend and into next week.

3) A trend toward warmer and more unsettled conditions develop toward the middle of next week, but at this time, chances for significant and hazardous weather appears low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As surface high pressure has moved east of the area, a southerly return flow has developed as expected. Meanwhile, low pressure is passing to our northwest over southern Ontario. A tight pressure gradient between the two has resulted in breezy conditions, with occasional gusts of 30-40 mph. RH values have been between 20 and 35 percent. All of this combined has resulted in marginally favorable fire weather conditions this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front will move through the region on Friday, which will bring rain showers to the area, particularly during the afternoon. Rain totals should be manageable with amounts mainly less than 0.25" (perhaps up to 0.50" for the Mohawk Valley).

The relatively weak cold front front will bring cooler temperatures to the area on Saturday (highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s), but this will be short-lived as a southerly return flow comes back on Sunday and persists into next week. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The overall pattern features a trough in the Southwest with a more zonal flow expected over the Northeast. This will keep us mainly south of the prevailing jet and gradually warming through Wednesday. Widespread 70s are expected on Monday and Tuesday. Some of the usual warmer spots (the valleys and the lake plain areas) could even reach 80 degrees by Tuesday. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday but the uncertainty increases as a frontal boundary lurking to our north has a variety of positions suggested by the models going into Thursday. There are a few minor upper level waves forecast to traverse along the northern NY border from Monday-Thursday which may bring scattered showers at times especially for the counties along the Thruway...with progressively less chance for rain further south.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Conditions will continue to be mainly VFR throughout this TAF period. There is a band of rain moving into Central NY but conditions will initially be too dry for anything to reach the ground. However, drizzle or even light rain cannot be ruled out. Short-range guidance has this band hitting the drier air over the region and dissipating, so there was no mention of rain added to the TAFs for this evening activity. A frontal system will drop south into the region late Friday. This front will bring rain showers and MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings to the Central NY terminals except BGM.

Surface winds remain gusty this evening. The gusts should subside overnight before picking back up Friday morning. With the front moving through, winds will shift around tomorrow, starting out southerly and then becoming more westerly by the evening hours. Low-level wind shear remains possible at all terminals except BGM and AVP. Winds will be around 40 kts at FL020 now through 06 to 08z.

Outlook:

Friday night...A front continues to move through the region with rain and restrictions.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chances for showers, afternoon thunderstorms, and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.