textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the afternoon forecast package. The timing of showers and thunderstorms continues to trend later for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry through Saturday.

2) The weather pattern turns unsettled Sunday and into Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible.

3) A warm and humid pattern will persist Tuesday through Friday next week, with chances for a few showers or thunderstorms most days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a week of unsettled weather, a welcome mainly dry period of weather is expected through Saturday. A few isolated showers are possible across the Catskills this afternoon, but the large majority of the area is expected to remain dry.

The high pressure system will move east of the area on Saturday, which will introduce a southerly return flow. This will result in warmer temperatures (highs in the 80s).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next deep trough and associated frontal boundary will slowly move into the area on Sunday, particularly later in the day through Sunday night. PWATs will increase to around 1.8-1.9. Abundant moisture will advect into the region with southwesterly flow ahead of the front. This will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, some which may result in heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding. The trend continues to be to slow the progression of the trough, which therefore could delay the onset of rain to later in the day Sunday, or even Sunday evening. This also would also result in showers and thunderstorms remaining in the area on Monday. While severe thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out on Sunday, this solution is appearing unlikely at this time due to the later timing and less instability present.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s during this timeframe with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s. Daily instability-driven scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially each afternoon. This will especially be the case by the middle to end of the week as another slow moving trough is expected to move into the area.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and into the evening. Valley fog will be possible again late tonight into early Saturday morning at ELM BGM, ITH and RME, but confidence is low as clouds are expected to gradually move in overnight. Therefore tempo groups were used at this time.

Outlook:

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Late Saturday Night through Sunday night...Rain and restrictions likely, with a chance of thunderstorms, as a moist frontal system passes through the region.

Monday through Wednesday...Lingering chance of scattered showers and isolated thunder; associated restrictions. Mainly Monday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.