textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A cold front slowly pushes through the region tonight with light snow across northeast Pennsylvania and into the Central NY. Cold Canadian air moves in behind the front with lake effect snow showers Sunday through Monday. A weak wave of low pressure drops out of Canada on Monday evening with with more widespread snow showers. Warm conditions develop by midweek with chances for rain increasing on Thursday with an approaching cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

A cold front will slowly push through the region later this evening through tonight. A wave of low pressure will develop along this frontal boundary to our south tonight and exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday morning. There will be an area of deep layer lift extending into NE PA and possibly as far north as the Southern Tier. Latest model runs show the upper trough is tilting a little more neutral and nice jet streak will be positioned around or just south and east of the Poconos Region which is in the vicinity of the right entrance of this jet streak, which will enhance vertical ascent than with just the shortwave and front itself. Thus, the strong diffluence aloft will help extend the precipitation shield further northward, so QPF amounts have been bumped slightly with this update. This brings snowfall totals close to advisory criteria across the Poconos, but widespread amounts across the area should average 1-2 inches with possibly only a few localized amounts to 3" possible. It should also be noted the forecast model soundings should fairly weak omega through the DGZ, so decided to bump down snow ratio amounts from previous forecast, this is why the increase in QPF did not push snowfall amounts over the advisory threshold.

Being this event is over the weekend, it was decided to not issue an advisory because amounts will mostly be below 3 inches, and also because the impacts will be less due to it not being a week day.

Strong cold air advection will take hold behind the exiting frontal system on Sunday. Lake effect snow develops under the NW flow region. Several inches in accumulation will be possible from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening across the Finger Lakes Region and portions of central NY. However, at this time it doesn't appear there will be organization of any particular band of snow and these lake effect showers should be more cellular in nature, so likely no winter weather advisory will be needed.

Finally, temperatures Sunday night into Monday will be colder than what NBM was advertising, so blended in some of the NBM 25th percentile for overnight lows. Temperatures will likely drop below zero in some of the colder spots across the north and with winds still gusting 15 to 20 mph overnight, it is possible that a cold weather advisory may be needed. At this time, confidence on the coverage of apparent temperature below the advisory threshold is uncertain, and after discussing with surrounding offices, it was decided to hold off on any cold weather headlines for now and will take another look at this with the next forecast update.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Lake effect snow showers will continue Monday. A shortwave is expected to track across Ontario on Monday and into western NY late in the day, with more light snow likely developing during the afternoon and evening. Moisture with this clipper system appears limited outside of lake effect regions, however, an additional 1 to 2 inches of snowfall remains possible by Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The pattern begins to transition on Tuesday as flow becomes more zonal with a developing southwesterly component. This shift will support relief from the cold with a warming trend through the end of the week. Embedded shortwave disturbances within the zonal flow will periodically move through the region. Precipitation type during this period will be rain or snow earlier in the week. However, Thursday is looking very warm out ahead of a strong cold front, with highs reaching the mid to upper 40s. With the warm air in place, the initial phase of this system is expected to bring rain showers, and possibly even some gusty showers as LLJ increases to near 70 knots at 850 mb. Behind the cold front, precipitation will transition to snow by Friday morning. Model guidance begins to diverge towards the end of the forecast period, however the overall pattern appears to remain active through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Snow is ongoing this evening across the region following the passage of a cold front. Light to moderate snow is affecting most terminals, with steadier snow south of ITH and lighter snow showers reaching SYR and RME. Periods of IFR to LIFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours. Snow will gradually taper toward daybreak. As winds turn north northwesterly, lake effect snow showers will become the primary concern, with occasional IFR restrictions possible today, especially near SYR and RME, before activity becomes more scattered and shifts south possibly impacting ITH.

Outlook...

Sunday evening through Monday...Occasional restrictions with a period of lake effect snow showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Potential frontal passage with rain showers and minor restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ044- 047-048-072. NY...None.