textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Chance of rain showers and thunderstorms were increased slightly for this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area this afternoon as a nearly stationary low pressure system remains nearby. Isolated showers will also be possible east of Interstate 81 Thursday afternoon.

2) Drier and warmer conditions are expected Friday through Saturday. Then another low pressure system will likely bring additional rainfall to the area on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low continues to spin just east of the area across the Hudson Valley and Catskills. In fact, the low is retrograding a bit to the west, which has allowed showers and thunderstorms to pivot back into the area, especially across Central NY. These showers and thunderstorms will produce brief heavy downpours and may result in localized poor drainage/urban flooding. Flash flooding is unlikely, but cannot be completely ruled out if thunderstorms were to train over the same areas. Fortunately the axis of heavier rainfall is west of the hardest hit areas from yesterday/last night (Sullivan and Delaware counties). However, we will need to watch those counties closely as it won't take much additional rainfall to cause renewed flooding issues.

Scattered showers will continue overnight and into Thursday as the low pressure system slowly drifts east. That being said, the threat for locally heavy rainfall will be diminishing significantly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The above mentioned low pressure system will finally move far enough east of the region to keep conditions dry on Friday as surface high pressure and weak upper level ridging moves in. This will result in much-needed dry weather for Friday and Saturday. With the weak ridging and sunshine, temperatures will be warmer with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The second half of the weekend become a bit more uncertain. A weak surface low pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday and it drifts eastward. With high pressure over the Atlantic and this low near the Ohio River Valley, flow around these systems will advect moisture northward leading to showers developing Sunday. A frontal system then passes through late Sunday into Monday keeping rain around early next week. Model guidance diverge on what happens after the front moves through. Solutions like the ECMWF keep an upper level low present and the high pressure closer to the coast with rain showers on Tuesday. Other solutions like the GFS have a trough and dry northwest flow over the region. Given the uncertainty, chances for showers are forecasted Sunday through Tuesday with the highest chances on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Large rotating area of low pressure in the Northeast US will allow the persistent rain to remain over the region through the next 3 to 6 hours at least. Reduced vsbys and ceilings in the rain will continue with lingering fuel alt req cigs and MVFR vsbys in light fog through the rest of the morning and gradual lifting to MVFR/VFR after 18Z Thursday. Winds will remain steady out of the north/nw with occasional gusts 10 to 20 kt through the next 24 hours.

Outlook:

Thursday night...Low clouds and patchy fog possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Sunday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.