textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Oneida, Otsego, Delaware, Sullivan, Wayne and Pike counties until late this morning. Expecting additional pockets of light ice accumulations transitioning to a period of light snow this morning and ending before noon. Minor adjustments to rainfall amounts, timing and temperatures through the upcoming weekend. Still on track for a significant warming trend and thaw.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant warming trend with periods of rain back in the forecast Friday and Saturday. Expecting a lot of snow melt and any river ice will likely break up.

2) Cool-down, back toward seasonable temperatures early next week. Chances for snow showers and minor lake effect return.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A surface ridge of high pressure pushes into the area on Thursday, along with upper level ridging overhead. Temperatures will start off in the upper 20s to low 30s Thursday morning, but warm into the upper 30s to mid-40s during the afternoon. Some rare sunshine is also in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon across the region.

After Thursday, temperatures will continue to rise as the first low pressure system is progged to track across the central Great Lakes on Friday. The low passing to our west will bring warm southerly flow. A warm frontal boundary will settle over the area on Friday with periods of rain and showers expected. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally between a tenth and a third of an inch over the area. High temperatures surge well up into the upper 40s and even some lower 50s. The increase in moisture and temperatures will melt a good deal of the snow pack. This frontal boundary stalls and washes out just east of the area Friday night. Some modestly cooler air may gradually work into the CWA from NW to SE overnight, with lows ranging from the mid- 30s to mid-40s. Little if any rain is expected Friday night.

The next low develops over the Tennessee Valley Saturday morning, tracks toward Lake Erie and southern Ontario Saturday night, before dragging a more substantial cold front through the area on Sunday. Periods of steady rain are likely to breakout over the area on Saturday and continue into Saturday night; before shifting east late at night. Right now guidance is point toward rainfall amounts around or up to about half an inch from this system. Temperatures and dew points remain very elevated Saturday, with highs 45-55F expected and dew points well into the 40s (except upper 30s north and east). This will allow for more snow melt across the area. It is becoming more likely that nearly all the snow currently on the ground will melt for the lower elevations. Current data shows generally a trace to 2 inches of snow water equivalent, with pockets of 3 inches of SWE noted across the Catskills and higher elevations of the far northern Susquehanna Region in Central NY. 1 to 3 inches of SWE exists across Onondaga and Madison counties at this time. Oneida county has more, with widespread 2 to 5 inches of SWE, locally 6-8 inches across the southern Tug Hill region of the county (i.e. Boonville, Woodgate, Point Rock and Florence area).

At this time no major hydro issues are anticipated, but certainly ponding of water in low lying areas and rises on area creeks and rivers are plausible. Forecast ensembles are showing low chances to reach minor flood stage at Conklin, Cortland and Sherburne of around 10 to 15%. However, these are the only sites even showing anything close to minor flood stage at this time and any widespread flooding is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Potent cold front swings through the region on Sunday, with the upper level trough settling overhead Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will turn much cooler, back to seasonable levels for this time period. Northwest winds also become breezy and gusty, likely 10 to 20 mph, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected. Official forecast went well above the latest NBM guidance and was based more off the deterministic guidance, along with forecast collaboration with neighboring Weather Service Offices. Some scattered snow showers and lake effect snow showers are expected to develop later on Sunday, Sunday night and persist into Monday afternoon. Increased PoPs this timeframe across the I90 corridor, as NBM was not picking up the lake effect snow at all. At this time, any accumulations are forecast to be light. The cool down also will be short, as the trough flattens into a zonal flow pattern with temperatures returning back to being several degrees above normal into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MVFR to IFR restrictions continue across the area this afternoon. IFR ceiling restrictions will stick around into the afternoon hours. Low clouds and patchy fog will remain through the end of the TAF period as warm air moving over a cold snowpack should keep RH high at the surface and thus lower cloud ceilings and fog.

AVP and ELM are the only terminals that should remain at Fuel Alt/MVFR through the period. A brief period of IFR may develop at ELM this evening, but confidence in this occurring is too low to include in the TAF.

Outlook...

Thursday....MVFR restrictions possible with overcast skies.

Thursday Night through Sunday...Possible restrictions with fog and rain showers.

Monday... High pressure builds to our south, potential for VFR conditions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.