textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some slight changes to the coverage of showers this weekend and temperatures early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With the departure of the upper level low this weekend will feature a substantial warming trend.

2) Very warm to hot conditions overspread the forecast area early next week. There will be a chance for thunderstorms especially heading into Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES 1...

An upper level low will continue to gradually shift east of the region Friday. Clouds and a few lingering showers are still expected to linger into the day Friday. As a result, another cool but not as cool day with temperatures maxing out near 60. Southerly flow will advect warmth and moisture into the region this weekend with highs well into the 70's and perhaps 80 both days. A warm frontal passage Sunday may provide enough lift for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Our NBM guidance has a nationwide documented bias with temperatures being too warm this transitional season. In coordination with WPC, high temperatures were dropped from the NBM a few degrees to be closer to Consall and the ECMWF ensemble guidance. 925 mb temperatures would also suggest highs Monday and Tuesday in the same 80's to perhaps 90 in a few valley locations. This keeps values in CNY below the heat advisory threshold with outlier NBM guidance going at or just above 95 degrees for the heat index Tuesday.

While some timing differences with the ensemble guidance, a cold front is modeled to move through the region around the Wednesday timeframe. This would provide the potential for some showers and perhaps thunderstorms if it lines up with the afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A post-frontal low stratus deck continues to be in place this afternoon as a broad upper trough lingers overhead while a surface low over eastern Lake Ontario slowly drifts east into tomorrow. Mainly MVFR/Fuel-alt ceilings are expected to continue through this evening before ceilings are expected to drop to IFR levels late this evening and into the overnight at all terminals except AVP. Wrap-around moisture will also lead to isolated to scattered showers and pockets of drizzle into tomorrow morning, but much of the precipitation will be light in nature.

Showers are expected to taper off toward the end of the TAF period and ceilings are expected to slowly start to improve as well. Winds will remain west to northwest at 5-10 knots.

Outlook:

Friday afternoon...Gradual improvement back to mostly VFR conditions.

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday night into Sunday.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR; a low chance of showers or thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.