textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes to timing and coverage with showers and thunderstorms today and on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be around through tonight.

2) A frontal system will move through midweek with the next round of showers and possible thunderstorms. The end of the week will be dry and cooler.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold frontal boundary will push through the region today. Enough lift and moisture look to be present ahead of the front to develop scattered showers this afternoon into the evening hours. Some slight instability is modeled as well adding the possibility of a few thunderstorms. Very little shear is present, so severe weather is not a concern. QPF also looks fairly light as well. Temperatures won't fall much with the frontal passage with highs both today and Tuesday in the 80's with lows around 60. High pressure looks to nose into the region Tuesday and keeping it dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A stronger cold frontal boundary looks to push through the region Wednesday into Thursday. Once again ingredients look to be in place for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Timing looks to favor CNY Wednesday afternoon and evening then NEPA on Thursday with fairly high ensemble agreement. Drier and slightly cooler air enter the region behind the front by Friday. Timing is still somewhat uncertain on the next potential system for the weekend. Temperatures still near 80 for highs and overnight lows in the mid 50's to around 60.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread IFR ceiling restrictions are expected this morning. Patchy fog and associated visby restrictions cannot be ruled out as well, but the large majority of restrictions will be from low ceilings/stratus. Slow improvement in restrictions is expected by the late morning. By the mid-late afternoon, all terminals should return to VFR. Isolated showers are also possible this morning, but confidence was only high enough to include at KRME and KSYR.

Fog is expected to develop late tonight/early Tuesday morning, which will likely result in IFR-or-worse restrictions at at least KELM, and possibly KITH and KRME as well.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night...Scattered showers and chance of thunder with associated restrictions possible.

Thursday through Friday...VFR other than typical early morning fog, especially KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.