textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added in slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon across Twin Tiers and Catskills with shortwave dropping in.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot start to the week with near record highs expected on Tuesday.

2) The ridge of high pressure continues to move west, with some east coast troughing trying to bring cooler, but more unsettled weather, for the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

NY and PA are under the eastern edge of a strong ridge of high pressure today and tomorrow. Given that we are on the eastern edge, there is some forecast uncertainty even for later today in regards to storms. Looking upstream in the northern Great Lakes, there is a large MCS that looks like it will maintain itself. Forecast models do have a shortwave associated with it that moves in later this morning into the early afternoon. Models do not have any precipitation with the shortwave but given that the models also are failing to maintain the current MCS, there is a chance we will see some thunderstorms. Chances of precipitation have been kept low, but did at least add a slight chance, for now but may need to be increased later this morning if the MCS does not weaken.

Today will be warm but not as warm as tomorrow will be. Looking at 850 mb temperatures, the NAM is very warm, with a pocket of 25C to 27C air moving in. The all time record observed 850 mb temp at BUFs upper air site is 25C and ALYs site is 23C. Ensemble mean temps are around 24C which is above model climatology. Given full sun, we may mix all the way up so there is a chance, if that pocket of warm air moves through late morning/early afternoon, to get into the upper 90s and localized areas near 100. Very dry air is associated with this warm pocket so that would mix down the dew points with the heat index not changing much. Did lower high temps slightly from NBM but did not lower it as much as previous forecast given a little higher confidence in a greater max temperature potential. A failure mode for the heat could be smoke. Many fires burning across Canada could lead to less solar radiation Tuesday preventing as deep of mixing as we could get.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level ridge slowly works its way west as it retrogrades mid week. With falling 500 mb heights and a trough trying it sneak in from the east, temperatures will be back to more seasonable temperatures. Ridge riding storm systems will have to be watched as we end up near the "ring of fire". Most models keep the storms mainly in New England but forecast models perform poorly in these slow, stagnant, retrograding patterns. If storms can sneak in, there will be enough shear under the edge of the ridge for some stronger and more organized storms and we may have a more active mid to late week than models advertise.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period. There can be some isolated pop up showers or thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon beginning around 18Z-20Z across CNY. While ITH, ELM and BGM may have the best chance of seeing the isolated convection, confidence in the timing and placement of any shower or storm is too low to include in the TAF forecast. Winds are expected to become WSW to WNW this afternoon with gusts up to about 15 knots.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR; patchy morning low clouds/fog possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038-039- 043-047. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015>018- 022>025-036-037-055-056.