textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy with lake effect rain showers tapering off overnight.

2) More beneficial widespread rain possible Thursday and continue to monitor the potential for a stronger low or noreaster late this week into next weekend, but at this time, impacts from this system are minimal in our area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cool northwest flow pattern today with lake effect rain showers and gusty winds continuing through this evening. Ridge of high pressure will start to build in overnight with much improved conditions for Tuesday. Expect decreasing clouds Tuesday across much of the area, except for possibly the NYS Thruway corridor on northward. Highs should top out in the upper 50s to low 60s for most of the region. Wednesday should remain mostly dry, but an incoming clipper system could start spreading rain showers into the region by Wednesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern will turn much more active for the end of the week and into the weekend. The guidance is in agreement that a large upper trough settles over the Northeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. However, some model guidance and ensembles try to develop low pressure off the southern coast of New England or Long Island. There remains quite a bit of spread on where/if this system will develop and track. What does appear more likely at this time is our region will be at least under the influence of an upper level trough/low and cooler temperatures are likely for the end of the week and this weekend. As for potential snowfall, boundary layer temperatures at this time appear fairly marginal, with the best chance for any snow accumulations to occur during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and most likely in the higher elevation areas.

This upper level low could persist through the weekend and into the first part of next week. This would keep conditions cool and unsettled under northwest flow, with lake effect rain/snow showers possible.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly MVFR conditions through this evening with showers and a northwest cyclonic flow off the lower Great Lakes. The exception to this is at AVP, where the lake showers and moisture are a bit less. Wind gusts out of the northwest in the 20-25 knot range will weaken by the early evening hours.

Tonight, conditions will slowly improve through the late evening and overnight hours from south to north. Lake showers will scatter out and cloud bases will increase while also becoming less dense in coverage. Mainly VFR conditions should be in place by the second half of the overnight, with SYR & RME holding onto MVFR flight cats the longest lake clouds last the longest.

Tuesday, mainly VFR conditions expected with westerly winds gusting to the 20 to 25 knot range once again.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.