textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Smoke coverage was updated based on the latest HRRR guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near-surface smoke will remain present over the region tonight with some clearing expected Friday. Smoke may return this weekend.

2) A low pressure system will bring thunderstorms to the region Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler throughout the weekend.

3) Temperatures will be near average throughout next week with showers and storms returning around midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

West-northwest winds continue to pump in smoke from wildfires from Ontario and northern Minnesota. Near-surface smoke and poor air quality will linger through at least tonight. Both the HRRR and RAP show smoke shifting south of the region late tonight into Friday, allowing for a brief respite from the smoke for most of the day before a resurgence back into the region by early Saturday morning. A low pressure system will move through on Saturday, which should help with clearing out the smoke once again.

This smoke may keep conditions slightly cooler than forecasted for a few areas but with improvements, not much adjustment was needed for the forecast tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures then fall into the 50s and 60s overnight.

An Air Quality Alert remains active for the region through midnight tonight. Coordination with state partners may lead to an extension of this alert later this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An upper-level trough will dig over the Great Lakes region to start the weekend. A surface low associated with this feature will deepen as it moves into the region. This low will bring a warm front through early with the potential for some scattered showers and storms by early afternoon. Then a cold front will then follow, though timing looks to favor late in the day and into the overnight hours. Models are showing limited instability throughout much of the day, though it does increase throughout the afternoon with values as high as 1500 J/kg. The 0-6km bulk shear will be at least 40 kts. Lapse rates do look weak, especially at the mid-levels. Given this, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is low but present. The main hazard will be isolated storms with strong gusts mixing down. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for most of the region.

The environment will be moist with this system as PWATs will be as high as 2 inches. Given this time of year, this is only around 2 standard deviations above normal but the potential is there for heavier rainfall, especially with any storms. WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook is also Marginal across the entire region. Reviewing soil moisture, conditions are dry. Also, a low-level jet of 40 kts will help puss this frontal system across the region fairly quickly. Given this, the concerns for flash flooding are low however, ponding in poor drainage and urban areas cannot be ruled out.

After the wet start to the weekend, the reward will be a cooler, drier second half of the weekend. A couple of sprinkles may linger in the morning from the departing low as wrap around moisture pushes in from the north. Temperatures across the region the will climb max out in the 70s after climbing into the 80s on Saturday. Overnight, temperatures fall into the 50s. Sunday night will be favorable for fog as skies will clear, winds will be light, and showers will have added some moisture.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures throughout next week will generally be near or even slightly below normal. Humidity will also be low, so conditions are expected to be fairly pleasant. Precipitation will return by midweek as a low pressure system will bring another warm/cold front combo through the region. While there is still some uncertainty with the timing, showers will move in on Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Models are not showing much for instability at this time but higher shear will be present. PWATs will be elevated with this next system likely leading to a soaking rain for much of the region. The general pattern over the country will not be much different than it is now, so there may be off-and-on periods of wildfire smoke.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Wildfire smoke continues to be the main impact to the area with a mix of MVFR/IFR visby restrictions. Guidance shows the most dense smoke in place now through about 22Z at most of the NY terminals and until about 00Z-02Z near AVP when IFR visbys are possible. These low visibilities are reflected on area webcams as well with satellite data still unavailable.

MVFR restrictions look to clear from north to south tonight as a weakening frontal boundary pushes south. This boundary can lead to a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm around RME into early this evening, mainly from 21Z-00Z, along the tail-end of a broken line of convection.

VFR conditions are expected to return at RME and SYR prior to midnight and reach the Southern Tier of NY at ELM and BGM around 07-09Z. There is the potential for a little patchy fog prior to daybreak around ELM and perhaps ITH, but confidence remains low. AVP is expected to see the smoke lighten up shortly after 12Z tomorrow morning. The rest of the TAF period is expected to be VFR.

Outlook:

Friday night into early Saturday...Wildfire smoke may lift back north into the area with associated visibility restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR.

The rest of Saturday into Sunday morning...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

The rest of Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.