textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts for Northeast PA to the Catskills was once again increased for Saturday night, but also reduced for Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a dry period of weather, the next round of rain showers and some thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

2) After a return to dry and cooler weather Monday and Tuesday, warmer weather and scattered showers and thunderstorms returns by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will be directly overhead tonight. With clear skies and light winds, good radiational cooling conditions will be present. This will result in cool temperatures (lows in the lower 40s to near 50; upper 30s in northern Oneida County), and some valley fog.

The high pressure system will depart the region on Saturday as a warm front approaches the area. This will result in increasing clouds, and eventually rain showers moving into the area. The majority of the area will likely be rain-free during the daytime on Saturday, but a few showers may sneak in west of I-81 during the afternoon.

The most concentrated period of rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms will be Saturday night/early Sunday morning. PWATs will be around 1.7 inches and coupled with a decent LLJ, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The greatest threat for this will be across Northeast PA-Catskills. While widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, cannot rule out some localized flooding issues late Saturday night.

There will likely be a bit of a lull in the rainfall Sunday morning, before a cold front will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Depending on how much clearing occurs, some of these thunderstorms may become strong to potentially severe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of the cold front, cooler air will move into the region, which will bring highs in the 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will keep conditions dry during this period. Another system may bring some scattered showers and potentially some thunderstorms by the middle of next week, along with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected area wide through at least 6Z tonight. ELM has the best chance at seeing some IFR fog in the overnights though that is dependent on how much it will dry out today as dew points have been steadily falling. High pressure will be near by and not quite directly overhead so if the dew point makes it into the low 40s by this afternoon then fog chances are low but confidence was not there at this time to remove it.

Tomorrow fog will lift by around 13Z with southerly winds increasing as a front moves in. Precipitation may reach AVP by 18Z but all other terminals will likely not see any rain until after 18Z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday...Restriction possible as frontal system moves through bringing rain showers to the region.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.