textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Persistent dry and mild pattern remains in place over the next week with only a few weak cold fronts passing through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The overall pattern that we have been in for the past week will likely remain steadfast through the next week. Strong upper level ridging will not budge much and with a strong surface high over the SE US, offshore flow keeps moisture away. A couple of weak cold fronts make their way under the ridge this week. The first one is Monday, which will slightly increase clouds and the winds, followed by a slightly cooler Tuesday. Models are hinting at some light rain along the front but soundings are very dry so precipitation chances were kept below 15%. Next front does not look to come through till early next weekend with also a similar story, slight decrease in temps and an increase in winds and high clouds briefly.

With this dry pattern and a couple days with stronger winds with dry frontal passages and now most of the leaves are off the trees, fire danger is increasing. With continued drying it will become easier for fires to spread. Luckily even on our windiest days this week, peak downward momentum transfer in forecast soundings is around 20 mph Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. IFR/LIFR fog will be possible at ELM early Sunday morning. There is uncertainty on how long it sticks around, so this forecast is leaning toward persistence as the fog lingered through the late morning hours.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM possible each morning.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.