textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A cold weather advisory is in effect until mid morning Monday areawide. Low potential (~15-20%) for patchy freezing rain or drizzle on Tuesday, but confidence is too low to add to deterministic forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) One more night of cold Arctic air with below zero temperatures.

2) Temperatures get closer to normal. Weak clipper passage expected Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Winds are weaker today, but the strong arctic airmass still remains in place across the region through Monday morning. Tonight, winds will ease up and possibly decouple in valley locations. These areas will see strong radiational cooling overnight in an already frigid air mass. If winds go calm, low temperatures could dip to -20F by early Monday morning in the coldest spots. The lighter winds expected this afternoon through Monday morning did allow us to downgrade the extreme cold warning to a cold weather advisory through tomorrow morning. However, winds will be strongest across the hills and mountains of the Catskills and Poconos and -20 to -25 wind chills will still be possible at times through the overnight hours across these higher elevation areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Relief from the Arctic temperatures arrives tomorrow afternoon and then temperatures will really turn warmer on Tuesday. The Binghamton Airport has seen 16 days in a row with temperatures below 32 degrees and Tuesday will have a chance to finally climb above freezing, but the current forecast low for Tuesday here at the airport is 31F, so it is going to be close.

A weak clipper system will push through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Still some uncertainty among the models with this system, mostly with temperature profiles aloft. There is some potential for a brief period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle Friday afternoon through evening, but confidence is too low to add to the deterministic forecast at this time. There is a good chance though that this system will at least have enough lift and moisture to produce a band of light snow that tracks from the Finger Lakes on eastward along the NY Thruway corridor Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Terrain may enhance the snowfall to the tune of an inch or two in Oneida county with lower amounts elsewhere. Forecast soundings show low level moisture hanging around in the afternoon and evening on Tuesday, but temperature profiles aloft warm to -5C to 0C or just above 0C in this low level saturated layer. Any spotty precipitation could be freezing rain or drizzle in the afternoon and evening due to supercooled water and the lack of ice crystals in this fairly warm cloud layer. The ground surface is so cold, that even if air temperatures climb to 34 to 35F on Tuesday, it is likely that any liquid precipitation that falls will freeze on untreated surfaces. Like mentioned earlier, confidence is just a little too low at this time to add freezing rain/drizzle to the deterministic forecast, but certainly something to watch for now.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

An area of lake effect stratus clouds is streaming off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes tonight. This area of stratus clouds is gradually expanding south and west. Cloud bases and CIGs are between 012-026 ft agl, and these should remain rather steady through the overnight and early Monday morning.

These MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs are forecast to impact ELM, ITH and BGM through the overnight and early Monday morning, before gradually scattering out and lifting by mid to late morning. SCT to BKN MVFR clouds are reaching AVP, but these should retract further north before sunrise (around 08z).

There is uncertainty on if an additional area of low clouds and freezing fog may form near the I-90 corridor from SYR east to RME. Much of the guidance is showing this (GFS LAMP, HRRR, CONSSHORT and NBM). Confidence is low on this actually forming due to the very cold and dry air mass that is in place, and considering Oneida Lake is frozen over solidly. For now, included some MVFR vsby at RME toward sunrise and a tempo for MVFR vsbys at SYR around the same timeframe.

Expect mainly VFR conditions across the entire area Monday afternoon and evening.

Winds will now be under 10 kts overnight. Winds become light and variable on Monday, under 6 kts

Outlook...

Early Tuesday Morning...Mainly VFR expected.

Late Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday night...Additional restrictions with some light snow for CNY terminals.

Wednesday through Friday... Some additional ceiling restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.