textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update. Added in areas of fog tonight into early Saturday morning. Minor changes to Pops and QPF through the weekend. Temperatures are trending a little warmer on Sunday with the low pressure system tracking slightly further north leading to lower chances for accumulating snow. Some very minor snow accumulations are still possible late Sunday night into Monday as the colder northwest flow develops.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A widespread rain event will move across the area into this evening with a passing low pressure system. Conditions then out overnight with possible patchy fog.

2) Seasonable and dry weather is expected on Saturday. Then, the next low pressure system passes over or just south of the area Sunday into Monday with a period of steady rain, potentially changing to some snow early Monday morning.

3)Below average temperatures return for the early to middle portion of next week, along with a chance of snow showers at times. Warming trend by Thursday, with increasing precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A period of moderate rain will continue impacting the area the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours. Temperatures will hold in the upper 30s to 40s, with some 50s for the Wyoming Valley. Rainfall amounts will be between 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most locations, with some locally higher amounts possible. The rain will exit off to the east between 7-10 PM this evening, with just a few lingering sprinkles or showers possible after that, until around midnight. Expect dry conditions overnight, with mostly cloudy skies and a northwest wind. Some patchy fog could develop if winds decouple enough as the ground will be very saturated/wet after the recent rainfall. Overnight lows dip down into the upper 20s to mid-30s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Saturday starts off mostly cloudy to overcast with the cooler northwest flow in place, as 850mb temperatures reach -5C over Central NY. Eventually the atmospheric column will dry out as a 1018 mb high builds in from near Lake Ontario. This should allow for gradual clearing, with partly to mostly sunny conditions in the afternoon for most area. Latest guidance continues to be slightly cooler for high temperatures compared to earlier guidance; so looking at highs in the 40s, to perhaps low 50s in the Wyoming Vallley...this is on par with average for late March.

A weak warm front lifts through the area Saturday night, which initiate some light snow, or light rain/snow mix especially across the I-90 corridor and perhaps south toward the eastern Susquehanna region or norther Catskill. Precipitation amounts are light, mostly under 1/10th of an inch and there could be some light, wet snow accumulation under 1 inch in Northern Oneida County. Temperatures drop into the 30s in the evening, then gradually rise late at night into Sunday morning as the southerly flow and warm air advection increases.

Current model guidance now mainly keeps the warm front mainly north of our forecast area Sunday morning and perhaps early afternoon, with an increasing southwest flow. This could allow temperatures to rise up well into the 60s from the Twin Tiers south across Northeast PA...with 50s further north to the I-90 corridor. Exact timing and positions of the low pressure center and frontal boundary are not yet known Sunday into Sunday night...but it seems as a wave of low pressure rides east along the front, it may start to drop back south toward Sunday afternoon or evening. This would allow colder air in the low levels of the atmosphere to begin filtering in from the north. As the sharp front drops south periods of rain will be likely, with even a slight chance for a thunderstorm in NE PA. As the front drops southward into NE PA Sunday evening or Sunday night another wave of low pressure could ride along it. This looks to bring a final round of rain, and perhaps some mixed precipitation to the region overnight Sunday. Colder air in the low to mid levels continues to filer in from the north late Sunday night and into Monday, with chances for scattered snow showers or flurries. Lows Sunday night/Monday morning are forecast to range from the upper 20s to low 30s across Central NY...with low to mid-30s in NE PA. Staying colder on Monday with highs in the mid-30s to mid-40s, as 850mb temperatures hover near -10C.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Slightly below average temperatures continue Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week with a broad upper level trough in place over the Northeastern US. High pressure will be in place Monday night into Tuesday, likely keeping our weather dry and mostly clear. A weak frontal system then swings through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the potential for scattered snow showers. Temperatures then look to trend warmer by Thursday, with chances for rain or a brief rain/snow mix increasing especially overnight. It is too far out in time to hone in on any more details for this mid to late next week system.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Steady rain is still impacting AVP, but will be moving out within the next 1-2 hours.

Overnight, low IFR to LIFR stratus moves in behind the departing front. ITH and/or BGM could get close to Airport Minimum CIGs for a few hours late this evening in the moist, cool NW upslope flow. Otherwise SYR and RME look to remain IFR through much of the overnight, perhaps coming back up to MVFR Fuel Alt around 08-10z early Saturday morning. These two sites scatter out and become VFR by 16/17z Saturday. ITH and BGM are IFR or lower through 14/15z Saturday, then MVFR before the clouds scatter out and become VFR by 17/18z Saturday.

ELM is likely to see IFR CIGs much of the night, from about 02z until 14z Saturday morning. There could be occasional IFR vsbys with patchy fog as well here overnight into early Saturday morning. This site scatters out, and becomes VFR between 17-19z.

AVP is likely to see IFR stratus CIGs develop by around 02z this evening, lingering until around 10z Saturday morning. These CIGs gradually lift to MVFR Fuel Alt, the scatter out to VFR by around 16z Saturday.

Outlook:

Saturday Night...Mainly VFR; except MVFR possible at RME and SYR along a warm front.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as another front pushes through the area from the NW with scattered showers and low potential for thunder in the Southern Tier and south.

Monday through Tuesday...High pressure building in across the Northeast with VFR conditions expected aside from the potential for morning fog.

Wednesday...Another front begins to move in from the west with potential restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.