textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover for this morning. Otherwise, no changes were needed from the early morning forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Plenty of sunshine along with seasonably cool temperatures is expected for the beginning of the week, before an upper level trough will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After the passage of yesterday's cold front, temperatures and dew points drop into a much more comfortable feel, with high temperatures in the low to upper 60s, and dew points in the mid to upper 40s. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with the occasional northwesterly breeze up to 10 to 15 mph. Tuesday will be just as beautiful with slightly warmer temperatures in the low to upper 70s, with dew points still comfortably in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Active weather returns as an upper level trough situated in Canada will be the driver of multiple shortwave disturbances that will pass through our area starting Wednesday. Every day from Wednesday and heading into the weekend will have some chances for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms. The day to watch this week will be Thursday, as a more organized low develops and moves across the Great Lakes, providing a stronger forcing mechanism for strong thunderstorms to develop. Right now, details are few and things are uncertain as each mid- to long- range model guidance has their own interpretation of timing, strength, and progression, but we'll continue to monitor trends for Thursday.

Temperatures will be in a general slight warming trend from today and through the rest of the week, though expected to be around average or slightly above average during the second half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Lingering MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alt clouds and CIGs are expected to linger at BGM until around 13z before clearing, and at SYR/RME until around 18z this afternoon.

SCT to BKN strato cumulus clouds are expected to redevelop across most of Central NY by mid to late morning, but should be mainly VFR at ITH, ELM and BGM. AVP stays mostly clear today, with just a FEW to SCT VFR clouds possible at times.

All sites are expected to go VFR after 19z this afternoon, with CLR skies likely by this evening and into the overnight.

NW winds will become breezy between 10-20 kts this morning, continuing through late afternoon. Winds then diminish quickly by evening, becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook:

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple disturbances pass through; associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.