textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the morning forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure continues today, with dry conditions expected.

2) A warm front brings chances for showers tomorrow morning, followed by a cold front with widepsread showers on Friday. Temperatures turn colder behind the front with frost possible across the north this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure conditions have begun to slowly erode away some cloud cover, which has blossomed fog in areas where skies have cleared. However, clouds will likely increase again today, and lasting through the day. Overall high pressure conditions will keep conditions dry, with very low to negligible chances for precipitation expected. Warm air advection from southwesterly flow will push temperatures into the 70s with upper 60s in the Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A weak warm front will cross through region late overnight tonight through tomorrow morning, which will bring a few light showers across the area, but nothing substantial. The next chance for more widespread rainfall will come on Friday, when the cold front crosses the region. Scattered showers are expected across the area on Friday, with rainfall amounts around a quarter to a half inch expected. The front exits the region Friday night with Canadian high pressure pushing in behind it. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler going into the weekend than tomorrow's and Friday's highs, which are forecasted to top out in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows could get into the low to mid 30s Saturday night across northern Oneida County, but there remains some uncertainty with cloud cover, as another system approaches by early Sunday morning.

There still remains some timing differences among model guidance runs on an upper trough/cold front dropping out of Canada Sunday into Monday, and low pressure tracking off the Mid Atlantic Coast to our south. With uncertainty remaining, we continued to utilize the NBM's solution for late weekend into early next week's forecast.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Abundant low level moisture is bringing widespread restrictions to most of the Central NY terminals from fog and low stratus. As of 06Z, conditions are VFR around KAVP, but some patchy fog will also be possible there early this morning. Restrictions will linger until around 13Z across the area, before VFR conditions return area-wide.

Outlook...

Thursday..Morning fog in the favorable areas, especially at KELM will be possible, which will likely result in restrictions. Scattered showers developing across Central NY, which may bring occasional restrictions.

Friday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.