textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A cold weather advisory for all of northeast PA and for Steuben and Sullivan counties in NY tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers continue through the week with light accumulations over Onondaga, Madison and Oneida County.

2) A reinforcement of Arctic air arrives Thursday into Friday. Cold weather advisories are likely with possibly extreme cold headlines in the Poconos due to the lower thresholds (-20F or lower).

3) Coastal low still well south and east of our region and any impacts from this storm look more and more unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

West-northwest flow off Lake Ontario will continue to produce lake effect snow showers right on into this weekend. However, due to the continued cold air that has been over the region, lake surface water temperatures have cooled considerably, so this limits the inland extent of the lake effect snow bands. For today, the lake effect bands off of Ontario have remained north of the region, but they will drop south again into north central NY by early tomorrow morning and continue into Friday. Accumulations will get close to advisory criteria, but due to the long duration of the snow and and this is an extremely light/fluffy snow, so not seeing much in the way of impacts to warrant an advisory. Highest amounts in our CWA will be across Onondaga County, where 2-4" will be possible through Friday morning.

Key Message #2...

Another upper level trough will swing into the northeast Thursday into Friday, ushering in an additional surge of cold air. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecast to fall to -20C to -24C, with surface temperatures remaining below zero for much of the area. Additional cold weather headlines will be needed for Thursday night into Friday morning with a widespread cold weather advisory likely. Localized wind chill temperatures could approach -25F to -30F across higher elevations with widespread -10F to -20F expected.

Key Message #3...

Only added this key message as the coastal low has been on everyone's radar since models first started advertising its potential a few days ago. However, at this time, this powerful storm is forecast to pass south and east of the 70/40 benchmark. A track outside of that benchmark means that our area is likely to see zero impacts from this system, unless there is a significant shift westward. If you have a vacation planned for Cape Cod or for Nova Scotia, Canada, then you may want to monitor the forecast of this system closely. Otherwise, we are another model cycle or two from being able to drop it from our discussion here.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

There are some scattered light snow showers/flurries across Central NY that is leading to some restrictions at ITH. Snow may clip BGM and result in some restrictions there as well, so tempo groups were added to both terminals. Lake effect snow develops overnight and will drop into the region after 06z. The snow should be brief at RME as northwesterly flow will favor snow at SYR for the rest of the TAF period. Lake clouds will bring ceilings down to MVFR and even Fuel Alt at all Central NY terminals except ELM. Light snow will be possible at ITH Thursday afternoon and could extend down to BGM but confidence was too low to include there. IFR restrictions will be possible around 18z when more steady snow develops. As is typical with lake effect, there is uncertainty with timing and restrictions, especially with models showing scattered coverage later in the day.

Winds are currently breezy but should become somewhat calmer overnight. Direction will vary from west to southwest at times before settling out of the northwest by midday tomorrow. Winds will begin to pick up around this time as well with sustained speeds around 10 kts and gusts up to 20 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Saturday...On and off lake effect snow showers may result in occasional restrictions at KRME and KSYR; otherwise mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for NYZ022-062.