textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances for the light lake effect snow across north- central NY were extended through the morning hours and ending around midday. Any adjustments to the expected additional snowfall was minor.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light lake effect snow will continue this morning across north- central NY with additional accumulations expected.

2) Conditions will then be mainly dry into the start of the weekend as temperatures trend warmer.

3) A cold front then moves through Saturday night as temperatures fall below normal. The pattern remains active through the first half of the week as temperatures will become mild again by midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

West-northwesterly flow combined with 850mb temps around -14 deg C will keep the current light lake effect snow showers going through at least the morning hours. Snow showers will be mainly limited to areas north of the Twin Tiers with some steadier bands dropping into the NYS Thruway Corridor at times. While snowfall rates are expected to only be 1/2 inch per hour or less, visibilities may reduced to around 2 miles for brief moments. Flow becomes southwesterly by around midday which should cut off any lingering snow showers. Additional snowfall totals will be a 0.5 to 2 inches for most areas that see snow. There is potential for localized totals around 3 inches for ares in northern Onondaga County. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today, falling back into the 20s to mid 30s. Some valley locations in NEPA and Catskills regions will be closer to 40. Nightly temperatures will be back into the teens with some single digits in the Tug Hill Plateau. However, with skies clearing out, there is potential that other areas fall into the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will stay in place through the start of the weekend. Southwesterly flow will begin to advect warmer air into the region and under sunny skies, at least for Friday, temperatures climb into the 40s. For some, 50s will be reachable Saturday, though it will depend on cloud cover. Guidance is showing a weak cold front moving into the region early Saturday but dries out as it hits the dry air already in place. Solutions such as the GFS over the last few runs show precipitation moving well into the region before drying out. Other solutions such as the NAM and ECMWF remain much drier. For now, this forecast update favors the NBM which keeps conditions dry.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With the pattern remaining active, there will be many systems to monitor. Meteorological spring on track to start more wintry than spring-like with chances for snow into next week.

A stronger cold front will move through Saturday night and Sunday morning. With temperatures falling below freezing prior to the front moving through, precipitation associated with this front will be mainly snow. Light accumulating snowfall is expected and while this system is just outside of the window for a first guess of snowfall totals, NBM probabilities are only at 10 to 20% for more than advisory-level amounts (3" for PA, 4" for NY). With the expected timing of this front, temperatures will warm up very little if any during the day on Sunday. The forecasted highs will likely be observed early for most of the region. Winds will be gusty along the front with wind chills dropping into the single digits and teens.

Another system is not too far behind as one will slide across the Ohio River Valley Sunday night. Guidance is mixed on whether or not this system will stay south of the region or bring snow showers up into NEPA and the Catskills, so a low chance for precipitation is currently forecasted. With the region being on the cold side of this system, precipitation would be just snow. High pressure then returns with warm, dry conditions through at least Tuesday. The next system moves in Tuesday night or early Wednesday, but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the set up and track of this system.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Lake effect snow showers and clouds will continue to bring restrictions to RME, SYR, and ITH for at least the next 3 to 4 hours. Restrictions will be Fuel Alt to MVFR. Brief IFR cannot be ruled out as observed by RME but confidence is low that there will be IFR visibilities given how light the snow is. By midday, snow showers should come to an end as flow becomes more southwesterly over Lake Ontario. VFR is then expected for all terminals through at least 12z Friday. West to northwest winds will be 5 to 10 kts through most of the day. Then this evening, winds become calm.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday Night and Sunday...Restrictions possible as a couple of waves move through the region with snow showers.

Monday...Restrictions possible as another system approaches the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.