textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A cold weather advisory was issued for the Wyoming and Pocono Mountain region in PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold wind chills will continue through this morning across northeast PA and parts of central NY, with new cold weather advisories issued for portions of Northeast PA tonight.

2) Lake effect snow will remain focused over Onondaga this morning with lighter snow just to the south and east.

3) Another surge of arctic air arrives late Thursday into Friday, with the potential for additional cold weather headlines. Nor'easter looks to track east of our region, but some solutions track slightly west.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold weather advisory remains in effect until 10 AM for northeast PA and Steuben county. The cold pattern persists, with another night of borderline wind chills expected. West-northwest flow will maintain cloud cover across much of central NY, limiting radiational cooling. Temperatures at 850 mb will range from -18 to -20 degrees C, with surface temperatures near 0 degrees F again tonight. Portions of northeast PA may see breaks in cloud cover, combined with light winds, wind chills could again fall -10 to -17 in the Wyoming Valley and Pocono mountain region. As a result, a new cold weather advisory has been issued for counties in that region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

West-northwest flow off Lake Ontario has allowed lake effect snow showers to expand into central NY this morning. The dominant flow will focus the most persistent snow showers over Onondaga county where the highest accumulations are expected. With high snow ratios, fluffy snow will allow a few inches to accumulate, especially over the northwestern portion of the county. Most of the accumulations will take place in the early morning hours. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Onondaga county through 3PM. Snow showers are expected to lift North of the region late this afternoon into early evening, before dropping south again into north central NY by early Thursday morning and continuing into Friday.

Key Message #3

Another upper level low will swing into the northeast Thursday night into Friday, ushering in an additional surge of cold air. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecast to fall to -22 to -24 degrees C, with surface temperatures remaining below freezing for much of the area. Additional cold weather headlines may be needed as this system approaches. Another upper level low is expected to dive into the Tennessee Valley region Friday night, then track east and ride up the eastern seaboard. Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for a nor'easter tracking east of the region in the ECMWF and Canadian NH solutions, while the GFS remains further west and closer to the area.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Lake effect snow continues for RME and SYR with IFR and LIFR at times. The band weakens and drops south over the next few hours so RME will get a reprieve while SYR still deals with IFR at times.

The snow band lifts back to the north in the morning with another round of IFR at SYR and RME through about 18Z before it is north of the terminals.

Some brief MVFR cigs are possible at BGM and ITH being at higher elevations mid day but otherwise all other terminals are VFR.

Outlook...

Thursday thru Saturday... A few rounds of light snow showers with the potential for off and on lake effect snow showers at KRME and KSYR. Occasional restrictions likely.

Sunday...VFR with medium confidence. Monitoring trends of potential strong low pressure system moving northeast through the Western Atlantic.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday for PAZ043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ018. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ022.