textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased shower coverage and cooled daytime temperatures on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier days Thursday and Friday with the potential for conditions to be favorable for fire spread on Friday.

2) Trending colder and wetter on Saturday and Saturday night. Some of the highest elevations may see some wet snow.

3) No impactful weather currently expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The nose of high pressure has trended a little more aggressively through Friday which should keep the region on the drier side the next couple of days. With plenty of sunshine, highs should get into the 60's after temperatures start off around 40. Inverted V soundings are modeled on Thursday. As a result, wind gusts should be higher than the NBM guidance with the potential for a few gusts near 20 knots. Modeled inverted V soundings show up again Friday afternoon with the airmass drying out further, likely more than what NBM guidance has. However, momentum transfer shows the top gusts to be a bit lower Friday. We will continue to coordinate with state and local partners on the potential for favorable conditions with regards to fire spread.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A low pressure system looks to track from the Great Lakes into the region Saturday. Shower coverage continues to look more widespread for most of the region. The majority of mesoscale model guidance actually indicates the highs maybe before sunrise for most of the region in the 40's. Evaporational and dynamical cooling would then keep values steady or slowly fall during the day. Further north away from the steadier rain some spots may get into the 50's. Enough cooling may occur for snow to mix in across the highest peaks of the western Catskills. The 00Z NAM appears to be a snowy outlier with most guidance not suggesting any accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Improving and warming conditions early next week before the next system with some showers on Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

Valley fog has developed tonight in parts of the area, mainly the Catskills, the Delaware River basin into far NE PA, and the Susquehanna river valley in Broome County where rain occurred yesterday evening. Some patchy, mainly MVFR fog/mist could still impact ELM in the predawn hours to around sunrise; but confidence is low to moderate in this occurring. Since ELM did not see rain yesterday evening, the current thinking is that any IFR or lower fog would not be likely to develop here.

VFR conditions with just a few mid to high level clouds are expected all day Thursday, right through the end of this taf period in the evening.

North to northwest winds should increase after 15-16Z Thursday with a few wind gusts close to 20 knots expected at most of our TAF sites. Winds diminish after sunset.

Outlook:

Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible late in the day and at night.

Saturday...Showers and associated restrictions possible into the night; low chance of thunder.

Sunday and Monday...VFR. Becoming windy on Monday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.