textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made with this update, but models have shifted shower and thunderstorm chances a little further north for this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frontal system brings showers and few thunderstorms across Central NY today. Otherwise, it will be very warm and partly sunny across the region and likely dry across Northeast PA and portions of the Southern Tier.

2) A few lingering showers will be possible Wednesday, before the cold front completely clears the area on Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

3) Unsettled weather with periods of rain expected Friday into Friday night. A strong cold front pushes through and a few wet snow showers could mix in late Friday night into Saturday. Dry and sunny weather returns with near average temperatures Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes today and into Northern New York this evening. A warm front will lift north across the area and produce a few showers or a thunderstorms this morning mainly across Central NY, but showers may dip as far south as the Southern Tier. After the warm front passes there will likely be some clearing for this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will have potential to reach 80 across portions of the Finger Lakes Region and portions of the Southern Tier. Clouds could linger across the north with additional showers and thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of the warm front, generally along the I90 Corridor and northward. There remains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5 ) for an isolated strong or severe storm across northern areas today, with the greatest potential being for isolated damaging wind gusts. Instability will reach close to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, but could be higher if more clearing occurs across the north, and bulk shear should be close to 40 kts. Models have shifted shower and thunderstorm chance a little further north for today and Binghamton on southward into NEPA should remain mostly dry.

It is interesting to see an EML plume move into the region late tonight and cross during the overnight hours. Mid level lapse rates around 8C, but by the time it gets here there is likely nothing to kick off storms to tap into these steeper lapse rates, as the shortwave will likely be east of the region by then. However, this could be something to watch, especially if upstream convection gets going. Latest 0Z HRRR does show a cluster of showers or thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning fizzling by the time it makes it into Western NY. Although latest CAMs guidance appear to indicate that any elevated thunderstorms overnight is unlikely, this will certainly be something to monitor throughout the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2

No significant changes for the middle of the week. A cold front eventually pushes through on Wednesday and a moist west- northwest flow takes hold over the area. A few light showers will be possible during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, Wednesday will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s to around 70 for CNY, and low to mid-70s in NE PA.

A much drier air mass and stronger surface high pressure center finally reaches the area for Thursday. This should bring plenty of sunshine, lower humidity and comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Northwest winds could be a little breezy Wednesday night into Thursday morning behind the departing front.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The pattern remains active and our next impactful system pushes in Thursday night through Friday. This system will likely be followed by a deep upper trough settling over the Northeast U.S. into Saturday. Widespread rain showers will be possible again Thursday night through Friday as a fast moving low pressure system crosses the region. This system will be followed by a deep upper trough/low diving into the area from central Canada.

No major changes in the forecast for this period as the trough has been modeled consistently now between most of the major global models for the last several runs. Forecast confidence continues to increase for lake effect snow this Saturday, but confidence on if and where it will accumulate is still quite low. T850 could dip as low as -8C to -10C over Central NY on Saturday as cold air advection takes hold on NW flow. Lake America water temperatures are quite warm, ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s. Such a large difference in air and water temperatures should produce a decent lake response and our first lake effect rain and snow event of the season is possible if this forecast pattern takes shape. The lake effect precipitation looks to taper off fairly quickly by later Saturday as high pressure moves in.

At this time, with most of the lake effect snow falling during the daytime hours, the current thinking is that an elevation dependent wet snow accumulation could occur, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in just how cold boundary layer temperatures will be, especially with the higher sun angle for mid October. Current data shows highs in the upper 30s to low 40s Saturday afternoon, so snow accumulations will be difficult, but not completely out of the question if an organized band of heavy snow can produce rates high enough to overcome the warm surface temperatures. This is still something to watch very carefully, because even a heavy wet 2 - 3 inches could cause some issues with the trees still having all their leaves.

High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday next week. This will bring sunny skies and a return to seasonable temperatures during the day time. Overnight lows will be cold Saturday night in the mid-20s to low 30s areawide, bringing the first widespread freeze to some locations.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A frontal system will be the driver for the conditions at the majority of terminals through the 12z TAF period.

The most affected will most likely be RME and SYR, where a warm front could briefly bring showers and a storm or two this morning, then there will be a lull period on the afternoon. During the afternoon, there could be some lingering showers. The cold front from this system will come through going into the late afternoon, bringing storms yet again. These storms could produce erratic winds, and briefly deteriorate conditions, as it passes. ITH could see some showers with the morning warm front, but isn't expected to see any storms, but it remains possible as it would be on the very edge of potential storm development.

For ELM and AVP, they will likely be impacted by LLWS with the cold front this evening around 00z. It's possible for BGM to get some LLWS, but confidence was too low currently to include it into the 12z TAF set.

ITH/BGM/ELM/AVP are expected to be mainly VFR for the 12z TAF period. Fog is expected to clear up from ELM around 14z.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

Friday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions possible.

Saturday...Cooler air settles into the region with the potential for some early season snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.