textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Active weather continues today with chances for strong to severe storms developing in the afternoon. There could be two rounds of storms; first developing this afternoon, and the other in the evening hours around sunset.

2) A pocket of high pressure will bring warm and mainly precipitation-free conditions tomorrow through Saturday. A quick moving low pressure system could bring showers and storms to the area on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

We're beginning to see some convective initiation in western NY, which will be the set-up for storms moving into Central NY in the next few hours. MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/km could allow for storms to grow severe, with the main threats being strong to damaging winds, as well as potential for hail above 1 inch in diameter. With any storm, they could produce heavy downpours that may result in localized flash flooding from excessive rainfall. There appears to be two different waves of storms, with the first developing this afternoon and sweeping mainly NW to SE across Central NY and NE PA. Later this evening, around sunset and going into the overnight hours, CAMs show a secondary wave of storms, however are likely to be non-severe as ingredients needed would likely be hindered after the sun sets.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure from Canada starts to build in tomorrow, and mainly precipitation-free conditions, and drier and cooler air. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s, making it a beautiful end to the overall week. The one exception would be Friday night into early Saturday, as a small shortwave will pass to the north, and may bring small chances for precipitation to northern Central NY, but confidence is low and guidance has been trending more north. The high will propagate eastward Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressures system approaches the Great Lakes from the north central US. Scattered rain showers and storms are expected Sunday. If the track of the low is to our north, we will be in the warm sector and could see a ribbon of high instability build into the area from the SW before the low drags a cold front through the area. 0-6km bulk shear from the low and stronger mid to upper level winds from the jet overhead could provide storm organization and, combined with the instability, produce severe storms. Confidence in this is low at the moment given the track of the low is still uncertain and severe weather will be dependent on the low taking a particular track. Either way, we will be monitoring how this system develops.

Behind the low, a strong high pressure system will build in from the west. This will bring NNW flow that will push Canadian air into the region and keep temperatures slightly below normal and keep us dry into mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next few hours before scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop. The main window of concern for the terminals looks to be between 21Z-04Z with TEMPO groups in for nearly all the terminals for at least MVFR restrictions possible. Rain could be locally heavy enough for some brief IFR restrictions.

After the convection diminishes, there is the potential for some low stratus or fog to develop early tomorrow morning, mainly in the typical 08Z-12Z window as clouds try to break and low level moisture lingers. Confidence is highest at ELM, but restrictions also seem possible at the remaining terminals, except for SYR.

After the morning low clouds and fog clear, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day with just a slight chance of a pop up shower or storm.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon and evening...Mainly VFR. Areas of low clouds and fog possible later Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Areas of low clouds or fog and associated restrictions possible early each morning; low chance for an isolated shower or storm Friday.

Sunday...Increasing chances for showers/storms, especially later in the day and into Sunday night.

Monday...A low chance for showers/storms and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.