textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and breezy conditions expected for today and tomorrow, with light lake effect rain showers returning for northern Central NY going into the evening hours later today.

2) Widespread rain is possible starting overnight Wednesday. We're continuing to monitor the potential for a stronger system later this week into next weekend, but at this time, impacts from this system are minimal in our area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak ridge of high pressure will start to build in overnight with much improved conditions for today, decreasing clouds across much of the area, except for possibly the NYS Thruway corridor on northward, where clouds from lake effect moisture may persist. Highs are expected to warm up in the upper 50s to low 60s for most of the region. Wednesday should remain mostly dry, but an incoming clipper system could start spreading rain showers into the region by Wednesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern will become more active for the end of the week and into the weekend. We're seeing agreement in model guidance that shows large upper trough settles over the Northeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. However, some model guidance tries to develop low pressure off the southern coast of New England or Long Island, with some outliers having the center low off the coast more. There remains quite a bit of spread on where/if this system will develop and track, as timing and strength remains inconsistent. What does appear more likely at this time is our region will be at least under the influence of an upper level trough/low and cooler temperatures are likely for the end of the week and this weekend. As for potential snowfall, boundary layer temperatures at this time appear fairly marginal, with the best chance for any snow accumulations to occur during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and most likely in the higher elevation areas.

This upper level low could persist through the weekend and into the first part of next week. This would keep conditions cool and unsettled under northwest flow, with lake effect rain/snow showers possible.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Northwest flow will keep lake clouds and MVFR ceilings over the Central NY terminals through much of the early morning hours. Satellite is showing some gradual clearing to the west with drier air moving in and guidance have all terminals at VFR by 12z. Confidence is moderate on the timing of restrictions lifting as forecasted. Light rain showers will also be possible at RME for at least a couple of hours to start the TAF period.

Winds will be variable to start but will eventually settle out of the west-northwest later this morning. Winds will also become stronger then with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts and peak gusts around 25 kts. Heading into the the evening and overnight hours, winds will remain breezy with gusts 15 to 20 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at SYR and RME.

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.