textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF and thunderstorm probabilities Tuesday into Tuesday evening based on the latest convective allowing model guidance. Slight increase in shower chances Wednesday as the front slowly drops south over the region. Increased PoPs for periods of rain and showers Friday into Friday night as the strong cold front moves through the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A series of fronts will move through the area late tonight into Tuesday. This will bring showers and few thunderstorms to the area, especially across Central NY. Otherwise, it will be very warm and partly sunny across the region.

2)A few lingering showers will be possible Wednesday, before the cold front completely clears the area on Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

3) Unsettled weather with periods of rain expected Friday into Friday night. A strong cold front pushes through and a few wet snow showers could mix in late Friday night into Saturday. Dry and sunny weather returns with near average temperatures Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Some partial clearing will work its way west to east this evening. Then partly cloudy conditions prevail overnight, with some patchy fog possible from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA. Late tonight into Tuesday morning the warm front will begin pushing north-northeast over the area. This may initiate some showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms, mainly along and north of the I-90 corridor. A few of this isolated showers could clip the Twin Tiers Tuesday morning, otherwise it will be partly sunny from the NY Southern Tier south into NE PA Tuesday morning. Eventually the warm front should lift northeast, clearing the CWA by midday or early Tuesday afternoon. Behind this feature, expect mostly sunny skies once again from the Twin Tiers south. Further north, near I-90 the clouds linger much of the day with additional shower and thunderstorm chances expected. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5 ) for an isolated strong or severe storm across northern areas, with the greatest potential being for isolated damaging wind gusts. Instability will reach close to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and bulk shear should be close to 40 kts. Otherwise, Tuesday will feature very warm temperatures and humid conditions. Highs will reach well into the 70s (and even low 80s in the deeper valley locations).

KEY MESSAGE 2

A moist west-northwest flow takes hold over the area on Wednesday, as the nearly stalled cold front lingers over south-central PA. Model guidance is showing the potential for a few light showers or sprinkles traversing the area during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, Wednesday will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s to around 70 for CNY, and low to mid-70s in NE PA.

A much drier air mass and stronger surface high pressure center finally reaches the area for Thursday. This should bring plenty of sunshine, lower humidity and comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Northwest winds could be a little breezy Wednesday night into Thursday morning behind the departing front.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Our next impactful system looks to be Thursday night through Friday, followed by a deep upper trough settling over the Northeast U.S. into Saturday. Widespread rain showers will be possible again Thursday night through Friday as a fast moving low pressure system crosses the region. This system will be followed by a deep upper trough/low diving into the area from central Canada.

This trough has been modeled consistently between most of the major global models, so confidence continues to increase for unsettled conditions this Saturday. T850 could dip as low as -8C over Central NY on Saturday as cold air advection takes hold on NW flow. Lake America water temperatures are quite warm, ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s. Such a large difference in air and water temperatures should produce a decent lake response and our first lake effect rain and snow event of the season is possible if this forecast pattern takes shape. The lake effect precipitation looks to taper off fairly quickly by later Saturday as high pressure moves in.

Some very light elevation dependent wet snow accumulation could occur, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in just hold cold boundary layer temperatures will be. Current data shows highs in the 40s Saturday afternoon, so snow accumulations will be difficult and unlikely during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday next week. This will bring sunny skies and a return to seasonable temperatures during the day time. Overnight lows will be cold Saturday night in the mid-20s to low 30s areawide, bringing the first widespread freeze to some locations.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A mix of Fuel Alt to LIFR conditions linger into the early portion of the afternoon before conditions finally improve. Most sites are expected to improve to VFR late afternoon/early evening. RME and SYR is expected to remain below VFR conditions as the low cloud deck of MVFR/IFR hangs around in northern Central NY. With any clearing for the remaining NY terminals from weak high pressure to the south, fog development is possible tonight especially at ELM. Rains showers return by the end of the TAF period for our northern sites.

Outlook...

Monday night...A mixture of VFR to IFR conditions with weak high pressure passing well to the south of the area. Some showers may be close to the western terminals by daybreak on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system approaches the region with showers and a slight chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

Friday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions possible.

Saturday...Cooler air settles into the region with the potential for some early season snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.