textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will give way to an arctic front that will sweep through the region Thursday with snow showers and squalls. Several weak clippers then look to track through the region late this week into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure building into the region today will result in clouds and slowly eroding and temperatures rebounding into the 30's. Tonight, with return flow ahead of an arctic cold front temperatures won;t fall much only into the 20's.

The arctic front then looks to move through the region on Thursday. We are still looking at a favorable environment for snow shower and snow squall formation throughout most of the day. Low level lapse rates are modeled to steepen coupled with about 50 J/KG CAPE. Momentum transfer on modeled soundings still looks favorable to get some 20-30 mph wind gusts to the surface. Temperatures do have the potential to drop slightly or stay steady so the flash freeze component of this may be present as well. Snow looks to be of a fluffier variety given the environmental setup with ratios near 20:1. As a result, some locations could see up to an inch of snow from any snow squall. The highest coverage still looks to be in CNY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Winds switch to west-northwest for a short time Thursday evening which has the potential to get a period of lake enhanced snow showers Thursday evening downwind of Lake Ontario. Even with the traditional higher ratios QPF looks only sufficient enough for top totals near 3 inches in the typically favored locations with much less elsewhere. If clearing can occur late Thursday night, lows early Friday morning would fall into the single digits.

High pressure looks to build over the region Friday as a weak area of low pressure slides to the south. A few ensemble members bring a touch of moisture with it to our area Friday night but staying with consensus to keep the forecast dry. Friday will be cold as well with highs in the 20's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The previously mentioned weak low slides to our south. A split- flow pattern looks to continue with a few low pressure systems sliding to our south while the northwest flow brings a few weak clipper systems through the region. Timing of these clipper systems is highly variable with model and ensemble solutions. Snow showers will be possible again at some point but exact timing is uncertain. Still a wintry pattern with temperatures in the 20's and 30's for highs. Monday looks like the coldest day of the period.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Clouds have cleared out from most terminals a bit faster than modeled this morning, but with the clear skies and light to calm winds, some areas of low clouds have formed along with patchy fog. Some brief drops in visibility are possible around ELM and SYR over the next hour or two, and MVFR/Fuel-alt clouds are expected to linger around AVP and RME before gradually clearing. A primarily MVFR deck of clouds is gradually moving eastward across western NY, and if this cloud deck can hold together, MVFR restrictions are possible mid-to-late morning around ELM, ITH, SYR and BGM.

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening before an arctic front approaches overnight. Ceilings are expected to start to lower late around ITH, SYR and RME with some light snow showers possible around RME, but much of the snow should hold off until after 12Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, mainly during the afternoon and especially at the Central NY terminals.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as a frontal system approaches the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.