textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Freeze Warning was issued for the Wyoming Valley and northern Finger Lakes regions. With clear skies expected, temperatures were lowered for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After one more cold night, the weekend will end dry and slightly warmer.

2) Temperatures will trend warmer early next week as a frontal system brings chances for widespread rain and afternoon thunderstorms.

3) Temperatures then fall back below normal for the second half of the work week as the pattern remains unsettled.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough will swing through today and tonight. With cooler air aloft, instability rain showers are possible this afternoon and evening. However, coverage will be isolated and anything that can develop will be light as drier air remains present near the surface. Clearing skies tonight will lead to good raditional cooling with temperatures tanking into the 20s and 30s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the Wyoming Valley and northern Finger Lakes.

The trough slides east of the region on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. The colder air retreats northward and temperatures will be slightly warmer during the day with highs in the 50s to low 60s. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to winds increasing during the day and gusts peaking around 25 mph. Overnight temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s as winds gradually become calmer. A weak disturbance will clip the region and bring spotty showers to parts of north-central NY, especially along and north of the NYS Thruway corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Some spotty showers may linger into Monday. Otherwise, southwest flow will advect warmer air into the region, helping continue the warming trend through Tuesday. Temperatures will climb into the 60s and potentially low 70s on Monday. Then most locations are expected to see high temperatures in the 70s on Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will be a bit more mild, only falling into the 40s and 50s both Monday and Tuesday night.

Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region from the west. This front will eventually stall somewhere over the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Given this, it is likely that some of the region will see continuous rain during the day and could be slightly cooler than forecasted while others will remain rain-free. Modeled instability of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and shear of 30 to 35 knots will be supportive of afternoon thunderstorms. Both low and mid-level lapse rates will be at least 6 to 7 C/km, so Tuesday will be a period to monitor for the potential of strong storms. The front will slowly inch across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. With widespread rain and cloudy skies, temperatures will then fall back below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Colder air will fill in behind the slowly departing front on Thursday with the front finally exiting the region late Thursday into Thursday night. A low develops along the front and will drift north into New England. Wrap around moisture from this low will support additional rain showers on Friday. Temperatures will fall back below normal for the late half of the week as highs will only be in the 50s and lows drop back into the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period. A few isolated showers could pop up this afternoon, but coverage will be minimal and there isn't enough confidence to put in any one site's forecast at this time. Northwest winds with gusts up to 15 knots are expected this afternoon, easing overnight before increasing again tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook:

Sunday through Monday... Mainly VFR, but restrictions will be possible at times in isolated to scattered showers.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ044-047. NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ015>018.