textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast is warmer today and removed any mention of freezing rain and lowered snowfall totals in Northern Oneida County to just a coating.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain event will move across the area today with a passing low pressure system.

2) Seasonably mild, dry weather expected Saturday. Then the next low pressure system passes over or just south of the area Sunday into Monday with a period of steady rain, potentially changing to some snow early Monday morning.

3)Below average temperatures return for the early to middle portion of next week, along with a chance of snow showers at times.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A fast moving low pressure system will drop southeast across the region today. Rain will develop across the Finger Lakes Region by mid to late morning and then drops south and east across the area through the day. Widespread rain amounts will be near a half inch with locally higher amounts possible. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to 50s for much of the region. The rain exits the area off to the east shortly after sunset, with a return to dry and mostly cloudy weather during the overnight period. Low temperatures will dip down into the upper 20s to 30s over the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Weak high pressure under a northwest flow settles into the area for Saturday with dry and quiet conditions. A warm front approaches and begins to move through the area Saturday night with some light rain or snow possible. Low pressure will track along the NY/PA border Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Latest trends in the models bring warmer air further northward with an area of steady rain likely across the region with temperatures into the 50s and even low 60s across the Twin Tiers and Northeast PA. As the low exits Sunday night into Monday morning, colder air filters in and any lingering moisture will change back to snow with very light accumulations possible. A much colder air mass continues to build over the area into Monday, with 850mb temperatures falling to around or just below -10C...there will likely be some lingering scattered snow showers or flurries through the day and gusty NW winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure builds over the area for Tuesday, with a colder than average air mass remaining in place. The next frontal system could push in by the middle of next week with a chance for more rain or snow showers. This feature will keep temperatures at or slightly below average for Wednesday as it appears to be a glancing shot of cold Canadian air behind it.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected into the late morning hours.

Rain will move in from the northwest starting in the late morning hours, spreading southeast as the day progresses. Conditions will fall to MVFR/Fuel Alt at all terminals during the afternoon as the rain moves through. There is a band of heavier rain that is expected to develop within the swath of showers, which will temporarily drop conditions to IFR at all terminals as it moves through the region during the mid afternoon hours. Widespread steady rain should exit the northern areas around 21z, and our southern areas around 01z. IFR ceilings with MVFR visby is expected to linger as a low level inversion develops and traps moisture at the surface. This is expected to continue through the overnight hours.

Outlook:

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as another front pushes through the area from the NW.

Monday through Tuesday...High pressure building in across the Northeast with VFR conditions expected aside from the potential for morning fog.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.