textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed mention of thunderstorms this morning, as instability is extremely limited to non-existant. Increased PoPs and QPF some along the I-90 corridor during the early to mid morning hours today. It is trending drier across most of the forecast area by this afternoon and early evening. Added in fog to the forecast for tonight into early Wednesday morning as temperatures cool into the 50s with light winds and mainly clear skies. Made minor adjustments to PoPs Thursday and used coverage terminology for the weather type, as forcing is weak and showers/storms should be more of the pop up variety.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers rotate slowly over the area this morning, some could be locally moderate to heavy at times. A few lingering showers or an isolated thunderstorm will be around this afternoon.

2) Dry and warm weather returns for Wednesday under high pressure.

3) Chances for additional showers and thunderstorms slowly ramps up on Thursday, and especially by Friday as the next frontal boundary pushes into the area.

4)The weekend is looking mainly dry and warm based on the latest guidance, but cannot rule out a few showers or t'storms as a disturbance moves through the Mid-Atlantic state

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The weak mid level wave and circulation is pushing east across our area this morning. Instability is lacking in most locations, however MUCAPE is up to 100 J/Kg (when parcel is lifted from 2km agl) across the NW Finger lakes east along I-90. PWATs are still around 1.8 inches over the entire area, along with a deep warm cloud layer up to 12k ft, noted on the latest HRRR soundings. Radar trends show very slow moving and back building showers still present, especially across Central NY early this morning. Mesonet observations from some of the steadiest activity shows rates around 1"/hr just west of Steuben county, with around 0.5"/hr in northern Steuben county, and 1-2 inches of rain along this stripe in the past 3 hours. This axis of moisture and convergence is progged to shift north-northeast, up along the I-90 corridor and Mohawk Valley through the mid morning hours, where localized stripes of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain could occur (moderate confidence). Still the threat for flash flooding remains low, as flash flood guidance is around 2"/hr and 2.5" in 3 hours in this region. HREF and CAMs show a pivoting area of light to moderate showers lingering over the Catskills and southern Mohawk Valley region through the morning hours, while the rest of the area begins to slowly dry out. A drier air mass continues to advect into the area from the north late today, and pwats fall to between 1.1" (north) and 1.5" (NE PA) by afternoon. Skies will become partly sunny by early afternoon up across the Syrause, Utica, Rome area...and by mid to late afternoon across the Twin Tiers. It looks like Northeast PA stays mostly cloudy for most of the day. Surface winds remain out of the east, under 10 mph through the day areawide. Temperatures will bump up into the 70s for highs for most locations, except low 80s for Syracuse and upper 60s for the Catskills.

Tonight features weak high pressure build overhead, clearing skies and light winds. As lows radiate down into the 50s, fairly widespread river valley fog is likely to develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After valley fog clears by mid morning, expect partly to mostly sunny skies and dry weather for a change all day Wednesday. The only exception to this is the low chance for a stray t'storm across Steuben and Yates county as a corridor of modest moisture and instability returns here late in the afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, it will be a little humid, with highs in the 80s across Central NY and Northeast PA. Wednesday night sees a weak high pressure surface ridge extending into the area from the offshore high pressure center. This should mean partly cloudy skies, light south winds and patchy fog possible. It will be warmer and muggy with lows in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There remains uncertainty on how widespread any showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday. The latest NBM ensemble guidance shows high chance to low end likely chances for showers and storms by Thursday afternoon. The higher resolution guidance such as the NAM has a much drier solution, while the latest 00z GFS does show stripes of QPF developing over our area, along with close to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE but low shear around 15 kts in the 0-6 KM layer. Overall, thinking this will be a low forcing event, but with plenty of instability around. This should mean partly sunny skies with just some scattered, afternoon pop up showers or storms. Not expecting widespread coverage at this time. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week as 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 573dm. This air mass supports highs in the 80s to even around 90 in the valleys of Central NY. By Friday, model guidance is in better agreement that a stronger, more organize front will move into the area and provide better lift/forcing. This will allow for a higher probability of showers and storms. The exact timing remains uncertain. However guidance, such as the 00z GFS is showing up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and a bit more shear, up to 30 kts as the front moves through. Will need to watch Friday for the potential of more organized convection, especially of the timing of the front ends up being later in the day. With more clouds and showers/storms around temperatures fall back into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

Current guidance sweeps the front through our area Friday night, with clearing and mainly dry weather around on Saturday. Current forecast showers mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s once again. Behind the front humidity levels are expected to be much lower, with dew points back in the mid-50s to low 60s. Sunday is expected to be mainly dry, but ensemble guidance does show the chance for a few showers or storms along the northern edge of a wave passing through the Mid-Atlantic. Dew points and humidity levels are progged to remain very similar to Saturday. Trends will be monitored in the ensemble and deterministic guidance. Otherwise, high temperatures are back in the 80s Sunday, and overnight lows will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs expected through the majority of the TAF period. Conditions are expected to slowly improve after this afternoon. Scattered and brief rain showers are possible for all terminals, but confidence is low of when they may pass over a terminal. Any shower will likely not cause vsby restrictions.

Outlook:

Tuesday night..Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms could pop up again, but overall trend is towards VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM.

Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall, leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.