textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring dry and slightly cooler than normal temperatures through tonight. Rain returns Wednesday and Thursday as a weak system moves through the region.

2) High pressure returns for much of the area through the end of the work week with cooler than normal temperatures. Active weather returns this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Fair weather cumulus clouds are present across the area as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Temperatures will struggle to make it our of the 70s this afternoon as morning fog and clouds allowed surface heating to get going a little later than normal, lowering the afternoon temperature potential. High pressure continues tonight with another round of fog expected across our valleys. Lows should be in the low to mid 50s for much of the region.

On Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig south into the eastern US with 2 disturbances propagating through the pattern; one moving over the Great Lakes and turning NE into Canada, and the other across the Ohio River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. The first disturbance will bring a chance for rain showers with isolated thunder starting in the late morning hours. The energy with this system looks to quickly move off to the NE and into Canada, so more widespread showers across WNY in the morning should taper down to scattered showers across CNY in the afternoon. A weak boundary pushed into the area from the NW should allow for some afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon across CNY. A jet streak will move overhead during the evening and overnight hours, allowing for some lingering showers to be possible. The 2nd disturbance is progged to move through the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday morning. A weak surface low should develop by this time generating scattered rain showers. The track of the low remains somewhat uncertain as a surface high will build into the Great Lakes and WNY as this disturbance moves into the Mid-Atlantic. The strength and speed of the high will help determine the track and speed of the low, which is currently forecast to track somewhere between NEPA and SNJ Thursday morning or Thursday afternoon. Rain should be light with up to 0.25in possible. High pressure should be fully in control by late afternoon on Thursday.

Temps on Wednesday should be near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Thursday will see a few degrees cooler with highs in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level trough is forecast to deepen across the eastern US on Saturday and slightly tilt negatively, generating a low over the Mid-Atlantic and another over the Great Lakes. The aforementioned high pressure system will slowly push NE as Saturday progresses, but its influence may be strong enough to keep rain at bay for most of the day on Saturday. If it moves out quicker and isn't as strong, rain showers should push into the area on Saturday. If it remains strong, rain should move into the area Sunday. The track and speed of the low pressure systems remains uncertain so confidence in rainfall amounts are low, but we do expected rain showers in the area. The trough axis should push east of the area sometime Monday, drying us out and allowing another high pressure system to move into the area from the NW. High pressure should remain in place into mid-week. Temperatures should be slightly below normal, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected much of the time over the next 24 hours for the terminals. Some drier air has worked its way in this afternoon and evening which makes confidence in fog a bit lower and some high clouds are expected to stream overhead into the overnight hours, but restrictions remains possible at ELM, ITH and RME with an uptick in moisture prior to daybreak.

Any early morning low clouds and fog should clear by 13Z leading to mainly VFR conditions through the rest of the TAF. A weakening frontal boundary will be approaching from the west with at least a broken line of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms, so PROB30 groups were introduced for the CNY terminals, which have a better chance of seeing some scattered convection compared to AVP. Thunder was kept out of the forecast for now with low confidence on where any isolated storms may develop with modest amounts of instability expected to be in place.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR; isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Areas of low clouds/fog possible late.

Thursday...Scattered showers and a chance for thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions: areas of morning fog, especially near ELM.

Saturday night into Sunday...Showers and potentially thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.