textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances were slightly increased Saturday night into Sunday morning for a cold front that will bring widespread light snow showers to the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will keep conditions mild and dry through the start of the weekend.

2) A strong cold front will move through the region late Saturday night with widespread snow showers. Below average temperatures are expected through early next week.

3) The pattern will remain active throughout the rest of the week as multiple systems will pass through the region. Temperatures will trend warmer through the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure remains in control through Saturday along with southwesterly flow. Warm and dry conditions are expected today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming into the low to mid 40s this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Partly sunny skies will gradually fill as a short wave approaches the region. This quick system will try to bring precipitation tomorrow afternoon, but will have trouble materializing with dry air in place. The best chances for rain and rain/snow mix will be across north central NY including northern ares of the Finger Lakes and up through the Tug Hill Plateau. Otherwise clear skies look to hold over northeast PA.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A stronger cold front will move through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning with snow showers. This front will bring widespread accumulating snowfall to the region, though amounts will be light. There are some differences in QPF with the GFS hinting at higher amounts, but the ECMWF has a lighter amount. Kept the NBM which has QPF ranging up to a tenth of an inch bringing a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow to some spots, although most areas look to remain under an inch. Following the front, northwesterly flow will support some light lake effect snow showers, though these will be short lived as high pressure returns. Overnight lows will fall into the 20s Saturday night with even cooler temperatures expected Sunday night with lows in the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A more organized low pressure system approaches the region from the midwest with southwest flow out ahead of it. The track of the low will be then have an influence on what precipitation types are observed. If this low tracks more north, warmer conditions would favor more rain though there would also likely be an axis of a wintry mix that could include freezing rain. A more southern track will favor more snow and potentially widespread snowfall accumulations. With these uncertainties, the forecast leans on NBM guidance for temperatures and timing of this event. A rain/snow mix is used for any areas where a wintry mix would be possible. Temperatures will then trend warmer through the second half of the week as highs in the 40s return on Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected across the region through the overnight hours. An approaching trough will increase winds tonight with LLWS developing at all CNY terminals up to FL020 out of the SW at 40-45kts from around midnight to the early morning hours. Light rain showers will develop along the leading edge of a trough axis and weak cold front moving through the area in the morning. IFR is not expected at this time. SYR/RME should see some MVFR ceilings in the morning hours, but should become VFR again in the afternoon.

AVP will be far enough south of this system that VFR conditions will prevail and LLWS is not expected.

Outlook:

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Occasional IFR restrictions possible as snow showers move in from the west.

Monday through Monday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance of snow showers during the day Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Chance for rain/snow showers and associated restrictions, especially later Tuesday into Wednesday

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.