textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated thunderstorms added to the forecast this evening. Frost mentioned Tuesday morning where the growing season has started.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms weaken as they move into the region tonight.

2) A quiet stretch of weather is expected early next week; frost is possible Tuesday morning.

3) An active pattern looks to return mid to late next week, as the overall weather pattern begins to trend warmer into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms to develop looks to be present across WNY and WPA late this afternoon into the evening. However, we have been firmly under a stratus deck today due to a warm front lifting northward. As a result, the showers and thunderstorms should weaken quickly as they move through the Finger Lakes eastward to the I-81 corridor due to the loss of instability. The cold front will be slow to exit the region so a few lingering showers Sunday in NEPA are not out of the question. Warmer temperatures tonight given the clouds and highs Sunday should get to at least 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will slowly build into the region by Tuesday. Winds have trended lighter for the early morning hours Tuesday. With clear skies and temperatures falling into the low and mid 30's, the potential for frost formation is present. If the potential increases headlines may be needed for portions of the Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley where the growing season has started.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures slowly warm up for the remainder of the week. However, a slow moving low pressure system looks to dive into the Ohio Valley and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. While timing differences are present within the ensemble suites, a fairly uniform signal exists for more showers. Highest chances look to be Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Fast-moving wave of low pressure that has produced a broad area of rain this morning is finally exiting to the east this afternoon. As the rain comes to an end there could be a brief period of drizzle while fuel-alt req/MVFR CIGS lift to VFR. Current thinking is that cloud cover will scatter out enough to produce some weak boundary layer instability ahead of the next short wave expected to swing through this evening and into the early overnight hours. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out but confidence remains low enough not to include in TAFs at this time. Have converted the prevailing SHRA to TEMPO groups... with MVFR restrictions...due to uncertainty. After the overnight showers, a drier air mass moves in with VFR conditions and winds shifting to the northwest.

East to southeast winds at RME and SYR...and south/sw winds elsewhere this afternoon will all become swly with gusts up to 20 kt for a brief period of time this evening. Winds will weaken tonight and slowly veer before becoming w/nwly after 13Z Sunday and gusts to 20 kt after 15Z.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night...A few scattered showers and intermittent minor restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.