textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Boosted winds and gusts today and lowered dewpoints this afternoon. Remainder of forecast is very close to the previous outlook.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold today with scattered lake effect flurries developing mainly over Central NY. Sunday and Monday will trend milder with dry conditions in place and high pressure overhead.

2) Showers return next week as low pressure systems track across the northern tier States. A chance of thunderstorms enters the picture Tuesday into Wednesday, and locally heavy rain is possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak upper level trough of low pressure will move through the region today, triggering scattered flurries and some lake snow showers later this morning into the afternoon hours. Temperatures aloft will drop to near -15C at 850 mb leading to steepening lapse rates and sufficient instability to trigger some lake plumes. The airmass is quite dry already, but these other factors along with Lake Ontario moisture should be sufficient for scattered precipitation. A second upper wave will pivot the flow more to the west tonight focusing what's left of any lake show over Oneida County prior to daybreak Sunday. Snowfall amounts will be negligible in most location with up to a half inch possible within the most persistent bands. Temperatures will reach the 30s today and then 40s to lower 50s on Sunday afternoon. Another cold night in between with lows in the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As high pressure slides to the east and a more zonal upper level flow develops, multiple disturbances will lead to the chance for showers early to mid next week. While there is some uncertainty with the timing of showers on Monday, but the consensus is leaning on a primarily dry day, followed by developing showers Monday night. Confidence increases Tuesday and Wednesday for showers as low pressure passes by to the north. Most of our area is expected to be deep into the warm sector south of a front on Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Model RH and cloud simulation fields suggests a dirty warm sector which should limit instability. General thunder seems possible, however deep convection looks to remain over the Ohio Valley where the probability for CAPE > 500 J/kg is highest. SSW flow will advect deep moisture from the Gulf into the frontal system approaching from Tuesday to Wednesday. Will need to closely watch the trends in precipitation as hydrologic ensembles do suggest a low chance probability (10-20%) for river and stream flooding during the latter half of next week.

Temperatures are expected to trend warmer Monday through Wednesday through the 50s and 60s with the lower 70s indicated in the 25th to 10th percentiles in the ensemble guidance. The Spring see-saw to cooler air temperatures is expected to follow the front later in the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions remain overnight into this morning and will persist for most of our sites through the period. Some light lake effect snow showers may push into Central NY starting tomorrow morning, and it is possible that SYR and RME could see minor restrictions at times through the day, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Gusty northwest winds will persist through most of the 06z TAF period after 12z, and expected to decrease going into the overnight hours

Outlook:

Saturday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions.

Monday through Wednesday...A chance of rain showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.