textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure stays in control through most of the weekend.

2) The pattern becomes more active late Sunday with several chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms throughout next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry throughout most of the weekend. Warmer air will round the top of the ridge over the Western US and filter into the region this weekend. This will result in temperatures at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs will be in the 80s today and Sunday. Despite these warmer temperatures, dewpoints will be in the 50s to low 60s, so it will feel fairly pleasant. Overnight lows this weekend will be in the 50s and 60s. Clear skies and light winds will be favorable for patchy fog during the early morning hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Surface high pressure will weaken Sunday, allowing for a couple of passing waves to support isolated to scattered showers from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Limited instability and weak shear may be enough to support isolated thunderstorms as well. Late Monday, the trough overhead begins to dig, opening the door for a low to drop into the Northeast Tuesday. This will favor an active pattern through Wednesday with multiple chances for rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. With limited showers in the morning and the potential for some clearing, models are showing some instability each afternoon. However, with weak flow aloft, shear is expected to be too weak to maintain thunderstorms for any extended period of time. As of now, severe chances look limited over the region and that seems to line up with SPC's thinking as we have been excluded from any of their extended outlooks. Wraparound moisture from this system will support additional showers through at least Thursday, potentially into Thursday night. A weak ridge and surface high pressure will build back into the region by the end of the week, bringing an end to the showers.

With this early week system, PWATs will be modest at 1.4 to 1.8 inches, though some guidance show slightly higher values. If the flow becomes oriented parallel with a passing frontal boundary on Tuesday, that would lead to training showers and storms. With multiple consecutive dry days leading up to this system, hydro concerns are low at this time. Models vary greatly with shower coverage throughout the event and where heavier rainfall may fall. Still, WPC does highlight the region in their ERO, highlighting the training potential.

Temperatures will generally be cooler than normal next week, especially from Tuesday though the end of the week. With the ridge building in on Friday, warming temperatures would be favored in time for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR throughout the TAF period with light winds.

Outlook:

Sunday...Mainly VFR, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm may result in brief restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...Afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.