textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

415 AM Update...

Cancelled winter weather advisory for Oneida County, as temperatures remain above freezing this morning and widespread freezing rain is no longer expected.

Previous Discussion... Lowered icing amounts through this morning, as temperatures are falling slower than forecast and a dry slot has reduced the amount of QPF that will be received. Freezing rain is looking less likely in the Poconos, as temperatures are struggling to drop below freezing. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for now, as there is still some potential for a light glaze icing by sunrise.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Freezing rain and freezing drizzle through this morning for parts of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley.

2) A cold front will bring another round of rain showers on Saturday, especially late in the day and in the evening. A few thunderstorms may also develop and result in gusty winds and small hail, mainly west of I-81.

3) Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through much of next week. This warm weather, combined with multiple rounds of rainfall will bring an increasing risk for some flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures have fallen below freezing across far eastern Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan County early this morning and there remains a threat for freezing rain or drizzle through daybreak. Oneida County remains above freezing, as well as Wayne and Pike County in NEPA, but temperatures may still drop over the next few hours for a few pockets of freezing rain or drizzle to develop. Due to the uncertainty, we decided to leave the winter weather advisory as is for now, and will reassess a little later this morning to see if temperatures respond. Otherwise, temperatures will eventually climb well above freezing later today, and no winter weather threats are then expected for at least the next 5 or 6 days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of a warm front Saturday morning, our region will be in the warm sector with temperatures rising to the mid 50s to mid 60s for most areas. After a morning batch of showers, some partial sunshine may break out as well. Then by the evening, a cold front will move through the area, which will bring another round of rain showers. Forecast soundings are indicating a strong low level inversion, but there is some decent elevated instability noted, with 500 - 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE above this inversion. 50-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear will likely be present and as a result, and if the low level inversion can mix out, then a few of these showers and isolated thunderstorms could produce some locally strong winds, mainly west of I-81. Also, the freezing level is only looking to be at about 6 to 7K feet and there should be enough instability and shear for the possibility of some small hail as well. However, the greater risk for any severe thunderstorms will likely be west of our region, across western NY and southward into the Ohio Valley, but there is a small potential for some strong thunderstorms to persist into our region Saturday evening. As a result, SPC has parts of our region west of I-81 highlighted in a "Marginal Risk" for severe thunderstorms in their Day 3 Convective Outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures will turn above average over the next week and the warmer temperatures will be combined with multiple chances for rain, as several disturbances push through. Rivers and streams will likely see some decent rises this weekend into early next week. As mentioned in Key Message 2, temperatures Saturday are expected to be well above average with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. PWATs will also be around or slightly above one inch, which is anomalously high for this time of year.

River ensemble forecasts show several forecast points potentially reaching action stage with the possibility of minor flooding at a few locations. Despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures Sunday will remain above normal with highs mainly in the 50s. Southwest flow returns early next week allowing temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s and possibly even warmer by midweek. Rivers and streams will need close monitoring during this timeframe for potential flooding, including possible isolated ice jams.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A warm front will keep plenty of moisture entrenched over the region today. IFR or worse conditions will be possible across the Southern Tier and into the Finger Lakes. However, further north and away from the front should remain MVFR ceilings for SYR and RME. For AVP, confidence is lower for IFR ceilings, as SSE flow should cause some downsloping and keep ceilings just above IFR.

Low level wind shear will be possible after midnight tonight at RME, SYR and ELM.

Outlook: Saturday...Low level wind shear will be possible at all sites tomorrow morning. IFR or lower CIGs linger across much of the area during this time period; some improvement to MVFR in the western portion of the CWA Saturday afternoon, before CIGs could drop lower again Saturday night across the entire area. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a front moves through Saturday evening into tonight.

Sunday...MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ046-057-062.