textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind gusts have been a bit higher than previously forecast early this morning and have generally been 35-45mph at times. Made some adjustments to forecast wind gusts for the remainder of the morning. Winds will gradually diminish by the late morning and into the afternoon.

Otherwise, no major changes were made to the forecast. We will continue to monitor the upcoming potential wintry weather for Friday into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Confidence continues to increase in another quick-moving system to produce snow or a wintry mix, with potential for freezing rain to mix in, Friday into Friday night.

2) A busy weather pattern is expected to continue with multiple systems pushing through the area through end of the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low pressure clipper system tracks into the region from the northwest on Friday, with marginal temperatures making this a setup favorable for mixed precipitation. System initially starts as snow as temperatures will be below freezing in the morning, but warmer air starts to creep in from the southwest as the day progresses. As the low center moves in just west of the area, warm air gets advected, introducing the potential for the development of mixed precipitation and freezing rain. Probabilistic model guidance shows slightly less than 60 percent chance of getting snow accumulations greater than 4 inches, primarily for NE PA, where colder air is expected to hold. As for freezing rain potential, probabilistic model guidance shows around 40-50 percent chance of measurable ice accumulation Friday night, for areas in west Southern Tier and NE PA west of Scranton. We'll continue to monitor this system over the next couple of days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Looking ahead to the end of the weekend, guidance shows a trough deepening over the area, where a mature, stacked low shows to develop. With warm air advection from a front on Sunday expected ahead of this system, precipitation could start as rain and/or mixed precipitation. As the main center low and cold front comes in, precipitation will likely transition to snow showers. There is still a lot of uncertainty, mainly with timing, where a few hour difference in progression of this system could mean different timing of precipitation type transition.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Lingering low level moisture will continue to bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions through this morning before gradually improving back to VFR this afternoon and early evening. While brief IFR ceiling restrictions cannot be ruled out early this morning, the likelihood of seeing IFR restrictions is decreasing and therefore this was removed from the TAFs with the 06Z issuance.

Gusty west-northwest winds are expected through the early afternoon (occasional gusts up to 25kts), before winds gradually decrease during the mid-late afternoon and eventually become light and variable this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday morning...Mainly VFR.

Friday afternoon into Saturday...Snow likely with associated restrictions. A wintry mix may occur at times, especially for KELM and KAVP.

Sunday...Wintry mix to rain likely with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.