textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Thunderstorm chances and coverage were adjusted based on current radar data. CAM models are a little slow with the development and progression of the current storms.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms return today with potential for isolated strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall.

2) The pattern will remain relatively active this week with brief periods of dry conditions between passing systems.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A MCS pushed out of Lake Erie this morning and is currently impacting WNY and WPA. The system has spilt its motion, with the northern part spinning up a MCV and moving to the ENE while the southern portion of the MCS has continued to progress to the SE, with new storms forming along the outflow across SE Ohio. Currently, the main concern is the MCV traveling eastward toward CNY. CIN remains over the western portion of the area and has already dissipated a cluster of storms moving onto Steuben county. As the day progresses, the CIN is expected to break and MLCAPE values in the 1200-1700 j/kg range are expected to develop over portions of CNY and NEPA. The difference today from yesterday's forecast is that 0-6km bulk shear has increased, now with 30-40kts of effective bulk shear expected to be present over the area as the MCV moves in with increasing low level instability. These ingredients lead to a chance for organized clusters of storms to develop, with damaging winds, hail and even an isolated tornado possible. Best chances for this continue to be across the Southern Tier into NEPA where we are expected to see the best CAPE/shear profiles, but an isolated severe storm is not out of the question to the north of this area. Heavy rain will accompany some of these storms, and with the recent heavy rains, isolated flash flooding across small streams and urban areas is possible. Storms from the MCV should be east of the area around 8pm. Some guidance wants to bring in another round of showers and storms across the Mohawk valley later this evening into the early overnight hours as some stronger shear and instability work their way in from Lake Ontario.

Prior to the showers and storms moving through, temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Humidity will increase as the day progresses, with dew points currently in the low to mid 60s rising to the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight, temperatures will be fairly mild, only falling into the 60s. With calming winds, breaks in cloud cover, and added moisture from today's showers, patchy fog will be possible in the valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

***Much of the extended forecast remains on track from the previous discussion. Uncertainty remains with timing and track of the passing shortwaves.***

A ridge out west and broad troughing in the east will favor a fairly active pattern this week. Ridge riders will pass over the Great Lakes Region and pass near or over our area. Weak high pressure and drier air will build in the night prior, though a weak system will likely clip the Southern Tier and northeast PA on Tuesday with passing showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday is expected to be mostly dry as well

Late in the week, the upper level trough begins to dig slightly and leads to the next system moving in Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then follows to bring another dry period late in the week and to start the weekend. A weak low pressure then moves through Sunday with another batch of showers that may linger into the start of next week.

There is quite bit of uncertainty with each system mentioned above, especially late in the week and over the weekend. Models continue to differ on exact tracks and timing, which impacts the coverage. There is confidence that there will be dry periods and not any particular day is expected to be a wash out.

Temperatures will trend cooler during the later half of the week. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s. Temperatures overnight will fall into the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Showers and TSRA arrives around 18/19z in the west and spreads east by 20/21z. We replaced the PROB30 groups with TEMPOs, and added TSRA for RME and SYR as well, even though they're the lowest confidence.

After 00z there may be some scattered non-restricted showers around still in the vicinity of most TAF sites. Otherwise, after a brief VFR period, widespread MVFR/IFR stratus clouds are forecast to develop over the area for early Tuesday morning, with patchy fog also possible.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Restrictions with overnight fog/low clouds are also possible.

Friday and Saturday...Returning to VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.