textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions will be mainly dry into the start of the weekend as temperatures trend warmer.

2) A cold front then moves through Saturday night as temperatures fall below normal.

3) The pattern remains active through the first half of the week as temperatures will become mild again by midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry air filters back into the area this afternoon allowing lingering light lake effect snow showers to diminish. High pressure builds into the region and will remain in place through the start of the weekend. Westerly flow shifts southwest tomorrow allowing warmer air to advect into the region. Temperatures will climb into the 40s tomorrow with highs reaching the low 50s by Saturday. Clear skies gradually return tonight with mostly sunny conditions expected tomorrow. Clouds start to fill in by Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. Model guidance continues to show showers attempting to move into the area ahead of the front, but generally getting overcome by dry air. For now, this forecast update favors the NBM which keeps conditions dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A secondary wave moves into the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning along with the cold front bringing a better chance for snow showers. Flow shifts back to northwest allowing cooler temperatures to return once again. Highs on Sunday will only climb into the 20s allowing precipitation to all fall as snow. Light accumulations are expected with amounts up to an inch at this time. NBM probabilities have decreased this update with only a 10% chance of seeing snowfall totals greater than 3 inches. Lows will fall into the single digits with below zero temperatures possible over northern Oneida. Otherwise increased winds will accompany the cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another system is not too far behind as one will slide across the Ohio River Valley Sunday night. Model guidance continues to show this system tracking south of our region especially the GFS solution. ECMWF and Canadian allow a chance of showers to touch northeast PA, with a low chance for precipitation. High pressure then returns with warm, dry conditions through at least Tuesday. The next system moves in Tuesday night or early Wednesday, but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the set up and track of this system.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected overnight through Friday as high pressure passes through the region. The high will exit, with southwest winds starting to pick up a little well ahead of an approaching dry front. That said, surface winds generally remain under 10 knots through Friday daytime, then low level wind shear conditions will be inbound shortly after 00Z Saturday.

Friday night...VFR, but with increased southwesterly flow off just off the surface causing low level wind shear conditions for the NY terminals and possibly KAVP for a time.

Saturday...Front passes with possible minor ceiling restrictions forming for KSYR-KRME-KITH; still mainly VFR elsewhere.

Saturday Night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible as a couple waves move through with snow showers.

Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.