textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances of precipitation were expanded in spacial and temporal coverage Thursday with the wrap around precipitation. Early next week high temperatures were coordinated with WPC to lower them to not have widespread 90s in lower elevations considering increase in potential cloud cover.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front finishes moving through this evening, ending the threat of gusty thunderstorms. Cool weather and wrap around precipitation continues through Thursday night.

2) Warm up begins this weekend with a large scale pattern shift, high temperatures climb into the 80s and perhaps a few areas to reach the 90s early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES 1...

Thunderstorms developed along a cold front with small hail, some measured gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and even sporadic wind damage in the Finger Lakes region suggestive of borderline severe gusts around 60 mph. However, the storms have progressed into more stable air, and well after daytime heating, so they will be sub- severe the rest of this evening while trekking east of Interstate 81. They will still generate some lightning, and gusts of 35 mph will be possible in the strongest remaining cells.

Once the front is through, a coastal low develops near Southern New England tonight into Thursday. As this low deepens, wrap around moisture keeps clouds and rain showers around tomorrow for most of the region. Terrain enhancement in the Catskills could lead to a few areas to get near an inch of rain though most of the area will just see intermittent light rain showers. Chances of precipitation were expanded through the morning into the early afternoon to cover this wrap around precip.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The long wave trough that has been persistent over the last several weeks will break down this weekend with flow becoming more zonal and even some ridging by the end of the weekend. 850 mb temperatures go from around freezing up to over 10C by Saturday night and even approaching 20C Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures in the 80s are likely next week and perhaps some 90 degree readings in the Wyoming Valley. RH fields aloft have trended a little more saturated so clouds are uncertain so decided to back off from original forecast highs Monday and Tuesday and dropped them 3 to 5 degrees from previous forecast. Lower elevations are on the drier side so despite the much warmer temperatures, dew points remain in the 50s to low 60s helping to keep heat indices in check.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Thunderstorms passed through several of the terminals late this afternoon, and as of 00Z is still impacting KAVP with at least showers still hanging around KBGM. Behind the front, wind will turn light and variable overnight. Clouds will have some breaks so fog and low stratus development details are tricky. However, enough breaks are figured along with moist conditions from recent rainfall to cause restrictive valley fog at KELM, and post-frontal ceilings settling into MVFR to fuel alternate required levels overnight. With a chilly upper low wobbling over the region, moisture will remain stuck with 1500-2500 ft ceilings across the NY terminals, though KAVP is more likely to achieve low end VFR ceiling in the afternoon. Winds will remain light though predominantly from the northwest Thursday.

Outlook:

Thursday night...Scattered showers with occasional restrictions, especially for the NY terminals.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday night into Sunday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.