textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold with below freezing temperatures across the entire region.

2) High pressure builds into the region Sunday with drier and warmer conditions expected for this week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Skies will clear and winds will ease tonight with high pressure moving overhead. The clear skies and light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling and the first hard freeze of this season is expected for the entire region. The only active growing season counties are Luzerne and Lackawanna, so a Freeze Warning is in effect for them through tomorrow morning.

Low temperatures will be in the 20s across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will stay over the region through the week and into next weekend. A coastal low will develop well of the North Carolina Coast tomorrow and remain off the coast through most of the work week. This system is expected to pose no impacts at all for our area and models have trended the track further out to sea, with high pressure stiff arming precipitation associated with the low and keeps it off the coast. Gradual warm air advection after tonight will help temperatures get back to or even a little above seasonable normals by Monday. Temperatures will vary little after Sunday with highs consistently in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Some valley locations will approach the 70s for daytime highs during the midweek period.

Also, this pattern is perfect for river valley fog to develop each night.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 00Z Monday). There is a small chance for patchy freezing fog/mist at KELM late tonight/early Sunday morning, but this was not included in the TAF there for now. Current thinking is that the airmass will be too dry for fog formation. If confidence increases in seeing fog/freezing fog, it may be added in upcoming TAF issuance. There may be some clouds that filter in from SE Ontario where current cloud bases of 3-10k ft are in place. Guidance isn't far enough south with placement vs present obs this evening, so some of these clouds may make it to the northern & western terminals through the first half of the night. By the time any of these clouds make it to any of the CNY terminals they should be mainly FEW to SCT with dry air over the region eroding what is left. Winds will continue to weaken through the night to light and variable or calm.

High pressure building into and settling over the region will continue to support VFR conditions for Sunday and beyond. Mostly clear skies and calm to light winds will continue on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR with a large area of high pressure anchoring over the eastern half of the lower 48. Morning fog can't be ruled out, but the dry airmass over the region should limit potential.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ044-047. NY...None.