textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added in some patchy fog and very localized frost to the forecast in the normally colder valley locations the next three nights. The coldest temperatures are expected over northern Oneida County, but frost is still not expected to be widespread here tonight. Blended in some of the colder 10th percentile guidance for overnight lows through Thursday night. Forecast is trending drier, with it now likely remaining dry over the next 7 days for most locations in Central NY and Northeast PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure remains in control with partly cloudy and seasonably cool conditions through Friday.

2) The coastal storm is trending east, with much of the area now expected to remain dry for the upcoming weekend and into early next week. A gradual warming trend is also expected in this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The stalled frontal boundary and associated waves of low pressure continue to trend further south. Scattered to broken clouds are developing this afternoon in the somewhat moist easterly flow. It will remain on the cooler side, with a steady east wind 5 to 10 mph and mostly cloudy conditions the rest of today. There will be a bit more in the way of sunshine through thin high clouds for the Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley region. High temperatures range in the 60s this afternoon.

The clouds will tend to dissipate and slowly drop south heading into the overnight period. This will open the door for some cooler overnight lows, and some very patchy fog for the deeper river and creek valleys of Central NY. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s, with some localized mid to upper 30s possible across portions of northern Oneida County and the coldest sheltered valleys of the upper Susquehanna region in Central NY. While some very patchy frost can't be ruled out in northern Oneida County, coverage was not enough to issue an advisory at this time.

Wednesday features more sunshine, as drier air continues to advect in from the northeast under the expansive 1040mb surface high pressure system. After the cool start, it will warm up nicely into the 60s under mostly sunny skies for the afternoon hours. Steady east winds between 5 to 15 mph are expected during the day. Wednesday night could be the coolest night of the week, under clear skies and rising pressures. Lows looks to range from the upper 30s to mid- 40s, with some localized mid-30s and patchy frost possible.

Thursday and Friday see high pressure remaining in control as the surface high slides west toward the upper Great Lakes. This will keep a dry northeast to northerly flow over our local area. Expect plenty of sunshine each day, along with mild temperatures in the 60s to near 70 for highs. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to mid- 40s once again.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

From Friday night through the end of the weekend it appears a slow moving coastal low pressure system will take shape off the northern Mid-Atlantic or southern New England coast. The latest model guidance has come into better agreement that our area will remain dry Friday night and likely most of Saturday. As the low spins off the New England coast Saturday night and Sunday, it will run into a developing Omega block over the Great Lakes region. Some moisture from the coastal low could wrap back around into eastern portions of our forecast area. For now the ensemble approach continues to show a slight chance to low end chance for showers late Saturday through Sunday. There is a lot of dry air in the mid levels and subsidence under the developing 500mb ridge/block near or just west of our area though. We will continue to monitor trends in the model guidance over the coming days, but overall the impacts locally from this coastal low appear to be minimal to perhaps none. From I-81 west (and perhaps the entire area) it is becoming very likely that it remains dry over the next 7 to 10 days. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm up heading into early next week, with highs in the low to mid-70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s expected.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure will help keep weather conditions quiet across the region through the next 24 hours. Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception of valley low clouds and fog impacting ELM Wednesday morning. IFR fog restrictions are possible at ELM between 09-13Z. East winds pick up after 14Z for most terminals with gusts 13-17kt possible before 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon Through Friday...Mainly VFR; potential for patching fog and IFR restrictions in early morning hours.

Friday Night through Sunday...Low chance for showers, mainly along and east of I-81.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.