textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased cloud cover and chances of precipitation tonight with the passage of a shortwave visible in water vapor imagery in the western Great Lakes. Temperatures were also increased so frost was reduced in areal coverage in the weather grids.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool today with a few isolated rain showers developing late, patchy frost possible tonight.

2) Unsettled pattern this weekend with several low pressure systems moving in, along with warmer temperatures.

3) A cold front sweeps through the region Sunday, with a cooler air mass settling into the region through the early part of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With 850 mb temperatures back down around 0C, temperatures today will struggle to get into the 50s. Water vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave moving through which helped keep clouds and pockets of drizzle in the area, with temperatures remaining a few degrees warmer than forecast. Once this shortwave is through around sunrise, there will be a period of sun, though this will not last long. Clouds move back in as another shortwave moves in that is currently over the western Great Lakes. Chances of precipitation were increased for late this afternoon and tonight, mainly in the Finger Lakes region into CNY given that models show some good amplification in the shortwave despite the lack of low level moisture. With the timing of the shortwave this evening, overnight lows were raised a few degrees with the cloud cover now expected, so widespread frost or a freeze is looking less likely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The trough in place flattens out Friday with return flow developing in the lower atmosphere. An area of low pressure moves in Friday night into Saturday with a warm front lifting in with rain along it. Rain showers will persist through most of the day Saturday as the center of the low passes through NY and PA. Overall rainfall amounts will not be much as there is not a lot of precipitable water available and overall lift is not great to get higher rainfall rates. Brief ridging builds in Saturday night into Sunday morning with warmer Southerly flow. Unfortunately, the ridge breaks down faster with a cold front moving in quicker so high temperatures were lowered almost 10 degrees from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The area of low pressure that moves through our region Saturday will deepen into a stronger low in eastern Canada. This once again brings in cold air aloft on the backside of the low, with 850 mb temperatures back below freezing leading to cooler than average temperatures. Model RH fields at least show there will be plenty of moisture so that could help prevent frost and freezes in the overnight hours early next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Variable flight restrictions early in this cycle are expected to become fully VFR toward the morning push and continue through the remainder of the forecast. Given the recent rain, any partial clearing ahead of an approaching upper trough of low pressure will allow for quick bursts of MVFR-IFR ceilings before drying and lifting occurs. Confidence in this early forecast period is pretty low given latest trends, however, all model guidance profiles do indicate the drying within the atmosphere so will run with the improvement. A secondary wave of upper level low pressure will swing into the region this afternoon with a resurgence of mid-high level clouds and spotty showers...but remaining VFR.

Generally West to Northwest winds 6-12 KTS with gusts up to 20 KTS becoming light again this evening.

Outlook: Friday night through Monday..Cool and unsettled period with intermittent chances for showers and restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.