textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments were made to the forecast overall, with the most notable one being low chance PoPs extending farther south into the Twin Tiers Saturday for isolated to scattered lake effect snow and flurries.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A chilly start to weekend with occasional lake effect snow and flurries, mainly for portions of Central NY. Sunday will trend milder with dry conditions in place and high pressure overhead.

2) Chances for showers return next week as high pressure slides out to sea. More spring-like temperatures are expected through at least the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

We'll have a chilly start to the weekend tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds and a gusty breeze as surface high pressure begins to build in from the west, but a potent shortwave moves through the area aloft. This will enhance the northwesterly flow off of Lake Ontario and with 850mb temperatures dipping down near -15C over CNY along with steep low and mid-level lapse rates overhead, scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries are expected through Saturday evening. The NAM in particular is showing about 50 J/kg of MUCAPE over north-central NY, so a few of these snow showers midday into the afternoon could result in some brief lower visibilities. Another weak shortwave can lead to additional light snow or flurries across Oneida County prior to daybreak Sunday. The latest CAMs have been a bit more aggressive with the lake effect snow showers and pushes them farther south into NE PA, so slight chance PoPs were increased around the Twin Tiers as a start, mainly from midday tomorrow through the early afternoon. Snowfall amounts into tomorrow night will be light ranging from a dusting to about a half an inch. A couple of spots in far NW Oneida County can squeeze out closer to an inch with a bit of enhancement in this area. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the 30s, with upper 20s in the higher terrain of CNY and the Catskills. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the 20s.

With high pressure overhead and the flow becoming southwesterly, it will be more seasonable end to the weekend Sunday with clouds and occasional sunshine. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As high pressure slides to the east and a more zonal upper level flow develops, multiple disturbances will lead to the chance for showers early to mid next week. While there is some uncertainty with the chance of showers on Monday, confidence increases Tuesday and Wednesday for showers and possible thunder as low pressure passing by to the north is expected to lift a warm front northward Tuesday then looks to drag a cold front through on Wednesday. With the surface high becoming centered over the western Atlantic, a strong south-southwesterly flow is expected and plenty of moisture should be advected from the Gulf into any system moving across the eastern U.S. and potentially enhance rainfall. With the rounds of showers moving into an already wet environment, we'll have to monitor area rivers and streams for rises, which are shown in some of the ensemble river forecasts later next week.

Temperatures are expected to trend warmer Monday through Wednesday through the 50s and 60s with some areas making a run at the lower 70s. Cooler air is expected to follow the front later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions remain overnight into tomorrow morning and will persist for most of our sites through the period. Some light lake effect snow showers may push into Central NY starting tomorrow morning and it is possible that SYR and RME could see restrictions at times through the day, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions.

Monday through Wednesday...A chance of rain showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.