textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for snow showers were added for the early morning band of the snow that is moving through the region. This morning's temperatures were increased due to cloud cover keeping the region warmer.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow develops behind departing band of snow.

2) A clipper system late this weekend and into the weekend will bring light accumulating snow across the region. With this system, a strong arctic front will lead to below normal temperatures and wind chills well below zero.

3) Temperatures begin to trend warmer next week with near normal conditions possible by midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak upper level disturbance continues to support a band of scattered snow showers this morning. These snow showers will continue to sweep through the region for the next few hours with light accumulations possible. Lake effect snow has also developed off of Lake Ontario though the heaviest band is well north of the NYS Thruway. Some drier air looks to win out late today, so there may be a brief period where there is little to no snow fall. A weak shortwave moves in overnight with some moisture resulting in the lake effect snow redeveloping by early Thursday morning. The second round will brief as high pressure and dry air move in Thursday afternoon. With flow fluctuating throughout this period, the band will drift between the Tug Hill and eastern Finger Lake regions. Snowfall accumulations will remain below advisory criteria with totals ranging from 0.5 to 3 inches.

Highs will remain in the 20s through Friday while lows will be in the single digits and low teens.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A digging upper level trough will bring the next chance for widespread snow showers late Friday into Friday night. While moisture will be somewhat limited, it will have decent forcing while kicking off snow showers late in the day Friday. Snow will continue overnight as an arctic front sweeps through the region. Snowfall accumulations are expected to be light and below advisory criteria. The latest NBM probabilities have very few areas exceeding 3 inches.

With an arctic cold front comes an arctic cold airmass. Temperatures at 850mb continue to be modeled between -20 and -30 across the region. For us at the surface, temperatures will be stuck in the single digits on Saturday and warm up slighting into the low to mid teens on Sunday. However, overnight, temperatures will be near or below zero. With this front, blustery winds will be possible as stronger flow above mixes down. Peak gusts may approach 40 mph in some areas. Combine these strong winds will the cold temperatures, and wind chills will fall below zero, especially on Saturday where wind chill will remain at -10 or colder throughout the whole day. Wind chills Saturday morning and Sunday morning will range from -15 to -25 with locally lower values. There is some uncertainty on how deep the trough digs and how cold it will get. However, with temperatures this could, a few degrees will make little difference.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

It will still be frigid early next week but temperatures will being to trend in the right direction. A ridge will build into the Northeast by around midweek and for those that look at the 540 thickness, it looks to drift north into the region for the first time in several recent forecast cycles. Temperatures will be nearing normal values for this time of year. For the first half of the week, there are mixed bag of weak systems that move through depending on model guidance of choice. There is some better agreement with a system moving in with the aforementioned ridge that would be mainly snow, but with milder conditions, a wintry mix would also be possible.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mainly MVFR restrictions are expected to prevail throughout the large majority of the TAF period (at least through 06Z Thursday), except for at KELM and KAVP. Brief MVFR ceiling restrictions cannot be totally ruled out at KELM this morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF there at this time. KELM likely drops down to MVFR this evening. Elsewhere, despite mainly MVFR restrictions, brief periods of VFR conditions may occur at times. Lake effect snow showers are also expected at KSYR, but these should be mainly light.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Lake effect clouds may result in occasional restrictions at all terminals except for KELM and KAVP. Lake effect snow showers also possible at KSYR.

Friday through Friday night...Restrictions likely with widespread snow showers, along with potential snow squalls and/or blowing snow late.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals with scattered snow showers. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.