textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments were made to shower chances and snowfall amounts for a shortwave that moves through this weekend that will support lake effect snow showers.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will build into the region though temperatures will be much colder into the start of the weekend. Occasional lake effect snow showers will also be possible for portions of Central NY this weekend.

2) Chances for showers return next week as high pressure slides out to sea. More spring-like temperatures are expected through at least the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Conditions will dry out this morning as high pressure builds into the region. Despite sunny skies, temperatures will will only max out in the 30s and 40s today as a cold airmass continues to spread south over the Northeast. Temperatures will then fall into the teens and 20 tonight, though with winds gradually picking up, wind chills will be in the single digits and teens by Saturday morning. A couple of weak waves will move through the region beginning late tonight. These waves will help support lake effect snow showers/flurries off- and-on through Saturday night for portions of Central NY. Total snowfall amounts through Saturday night will be light, ranging from a dusting to around a half inch. Temperatures Saturday will be stuck in the 30s during the day and fall back into the teens and 20s once again overnight. The positive is that southwest flow returns by Sunday and the colder air retreats northward. While the sun may struggle to peek through the clouds on Sunday, it should be a fairly pleasant day as temperatures will be around 50 and no precipitation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will slide out to sea by Monday. The start of the work weeks remains somewhat uncertain. Some guidance has a weak disturbance moving through though forcing looks weak and it will have to overcome the dry air that remains in place with weak high pressure lingering. Other guidance keep conditions dry through Monday. Confidence is higher that the next chance for precipitation comes on Tuesday as showers spread eastward as a low pressure system moves over the upper Midwest. Temperatures trend warmer throughout the first half of the week and that warming will peak midweek as the low passes north of the region. Temperatures will then dip after a cold front moves through, though models are favoring more mild conditions than we have seen from recent frontal system. This front will also bring widespread rain showers to the region and depending on the timing, some thunderstorms as well.

We will have to monitor area rivers and streams for rises next week as shown in the ensemble river forecasts. As of now, any crests would be late next week, potentially not until after this forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Low ceilings from the cold front will remain until a few hours after sunrise, continuing MVFR/Fuel Alt and IFR restrictions. Conditions will continue to slowly improve to VFR around 16z.

Gusty north-northwesterly winds will also continue until this afternoon.

Outlook:

Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions.

Monday through Tuesday...A chance of rain showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.