textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments made to PoPs, Chance of thunder and temperatures based on the latest observational trends and CAM guidance. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with no significant changes. The chance for any severe thunderstorms have decreased to almost zero in our forecast area, as instability is lacking this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will bring a potential isolated strong to severe storms across the Wyoming Valley. Elevated thunderstorms across the Twin Tiers and central New York will bring a chance moderate to heavy rain and isolated minor flooding through the evening.

2) A clipper system on Friday into Saturday brings a chance for rain and snow showers along with gusty northwest winds.

3) Temperatures then trend colder into the weekend before a slight warm up Sunday. A deep trough brings brings chances for snow and rain showers early next week, with cold temperatures following.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain showers are ongoing across much of the CWA. This rain and associated clouds has kept temperatures in check across the region, especially in the Mohawk Valley where it is about 20 degrees colder than guidance suggested earlier.

These rain showers will continue for the next few hours before a brief lull may allow for some surface temps to recover, but clouds are expected to remain and we will be on the back side of peak heating so heating to break the stable low level inversions across CNY looks unlikely. Elevated convection will be more likely here, with periods of moderate to heavy rain through the evening hours. With the low level inversions in place, getting stronger winds to the surface looks unlikely, but synoptically driven winds could produce wind gusts in the 30-35mph range this evening.

NEPA, and more specifically Luzerne county, currently looks like to have the best chance at seeing isolated severe storms develop as we are seeing a high shear/low CAPE setup developing. Mixed layer CAPE of around 500 j/kg is possible late this afternoon and evening as 0-6km bulk shear of 45-60kts moves into the area. Model soundings show a strong LLJ of 70-80kts developing around 825mb, just above the low level inversion. The big question is whether temps will be able to recover enough to allow enough low level instability to form that could be ingested into a developing storm. The Scranton area was moving into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s, but rain over the past 2 hours has dropped temps back to 65. There is some clearing behind the rain currently moving through, but confidence that the temps will recover enough to bring the instability needed for severe storms is low. If it was to happen, damaging winds and and isolated tornado would be possible. Later in the evening into the overnight hours, a strong cold front pushing through the area will bring another batch of rain showers and elevated thunderstorms. A drastic temperature change will follow the front, with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s around midnight to to 30s by the morning commute. Winds will gust to 30-40mph behind the front with the cold air flowing in. Lingering showers should kick out to the east by the morning, but lake effect snow showers are expected to develop off Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes through much of the day Thursday. Accumulations will be light, with less than an inch expected on elevated and shaded areas.

We could see some flooding issues with the expected rainfall today and tonight. A Flood Watch has been issued for Oneida county where rain and a melting snowpack could bring minor flooding to areas that usually flood in these situations. If we overperform on the rainfall across the Susquehanna basin, a few areas could reach minor flood stage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A clipper system will impact the area Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of rain and snow is expected as temps will climb from the low 30s to upper 30s to low 40s in the afternoon, falling back to freezing in the evening. Accumulations will be light, with a few tenths to 3 inches possible. Higher elevations will have the best chance for the higher numbers while the Finger Lakes and valleys would be on the lower end. Winds are expected to pick up with this system, with sustained winds in the 10-20mph range gusting to 25-35mph. Precip should dissipate by the late morning hours as high pressure builds in behind the departing clipper.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A deep trough over the central US will drive the weather for the region during the first part of next week. A warm front pushing through the area on Sunday will kick off snow showers that will transition to rain as the warm front lifts north. Rain showers will continue on Monday and Tuesday as the trough and associated cold front moves through the area. Cold air dives into the area through at least mid week, with scattered lake effect snow showers possible. Temps in the mid 50s to low 60s on Monday will fall to the low 20s to low 30s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Following the passage of a cold front, post-frontal low clouds will bring widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions through at least this morning. Gradual improvement is expected by this afternoon with a return to VFR for most terminals. Low ceilings may linger until the mid-late afternoon at KITH, and especially at KSYR and KRME. There will be a potential for some light snow showers or graupel this afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

Gusty northwest winds are expected throughout the period with occasional gusts up to 30kts possible at times. Winds will gradually diminish this evening.

Outlook:

Friday through Friday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for NYZ009-037.