textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered through the rest of the day where skies were slower to clear.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms through the region late today and tonight.

2) High pressure and warming temperatures are then expected from Sunday through early next week.

3) A strong cold front moves through late in the week with showers and much colder temperatures to follow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An early round of showers and extensive cloud cover initially kept temperatures cooler than forecasted. Where skies have cleared, conditions have begun to quickly warm up as temperatures are now in the upper 50s to low 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures remain cooler under the cloud cover that has been slower to erode. Given this, temperatures were adjusted cooler by blending in the Conshort, NBM, and NBM tenth percentile. A cold front is still on track to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region late today and overnight. With the clearing that has taken place, this will be the area to watch this afternoon. Despite skies becoming sunny, there is uncertainty if enough warming will take place to erode an inversion and lead to an environment unstable enough for stronger storms. The HRRR has this inversion eroding while the NAM does not. If there is instability, it is expected to mainly be elevated with MUCAPE modeled at 500 to 1000 J/kg. The 0-6 km bulk shear will be quite strong though with values of at least 50 kts. If the stable layer near the surface does not completely mix out, then there could be an area of enhanced low-level helicity. While the risk is quite low and the ingredients would all need to come into place at the right time, a spin up cannot be ruled out. Any severe threat should quickly diminish after sunset as the environment becomes more stable. However, as mentioned, showers and thunderstorms will still be possible overnight.

In addition to the severe potential, there is also a risk for heavy rainfall. PWATs will peak around 1.3 inches, which is high for this time of year. With a wet ground and some lingering snow to melt, there could end up being some ponding in poor drainage areas. Most rivers and streams remain low enough where those should not be a concern, though rises are expected after the rain today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The front and rain showers will exit the region early Sunday morning. High pressure then builds into the region and should lead to at least a couple of days of dry weather. Some models are showing some spotty showers Tuesday during the day ahead of the next system, but this forecast continues to keep conditions dry for this time period. After Sunday, temperatures will trend warmer through midweek with a chance for 70s in some valley locations by Tuesday.

With these warmer conditions, any remaining snowpack will continue to melt and lead to runoff. This will likely lead to rivers and streams rising more early next week. However, with no additional rainfall, these rises should be minimal and will quickly trend back down as RFC forecasts project.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Conditions will remain warm Wednesday as the region will be in the warm sector of the next low pressure system. As the system approaches, rain showers will spread across the region throughout the day and continue overnight. There will likely be a brief dry period before a cold front sweeps through the region on Thursday with rain changing to snow. Following the front, temperatures will then trend colder as highs fall back into the 40s by Friday. A clipper system will pass north of the region, which should keep conditions mild enough for mainly rain but snow showers cannot be ruled out, especially during the onset of precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A couple of lines of showers, with some embedded storms, are expected to move through the area through the rest of the evening and into overnight. The main line with embedded storms has passed ELM, and just went through ITH. Chances for a storm has been taken out of SYR and RME as confidence increases. BGM will have the next chances for a quick passing storm between 00Z and 02Z. The other line of showers, with little to no chances for an embedded storm, will pass NW to SE between 06z and 09z.

Outlook:

Sunday...Lingering MVFR ceilings possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

Thursday...Becoming cooler with rain showers and associated restrictions possible. Some wet snow can possibly mix in in at the northern terminals as temperatures fall.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.