textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

After a chilly quiet night, the weekend starts partly sunny with warming temperatures Saturday. A frontal system will pass late Saturday night into Sunday with scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Dry weather and high pressure return for the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

3 PM Update... High pressure, a mostly clear sky, and dry air will lead to the coolest night in recent memory. The good radiational cooling setup will send temperatures down into the upper 40s-mid 50s from Twin Tiers northward, though it would not be surprising if the typically coldest spots actually manager even lower. The Wyoming Valley to Poconos will settle into mid 50s-near 60.

A light return flow gets started after a chilly morning, to boost temperatures into the upper 70s-mid 80s. High pressure will only slowly let go, and moisture will be slower to build, so vast majority of the area will remain dry. Best chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon will be in the Wyoming Valley-Poconos, in vicinity of a frontal boundary that may be lifting, yet even there dry for most locations during the daytime.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

3 PM Update... A cold front is set to sweep across the region during the second half of the weekend, leading to likely showers and a chance of thunderstorms. The Sunday morning timing of the frontal passage leads to uncertainty for whether storms will be able to maintain themselves strength-wise, but some instability aloft suggests that at least embedded thunder can be anticipated. If the front is slightly slower than currently projected, there is a small chance that storms could gin up from new instability on their way out of the Wyoming Valley-Poconos-Catskills early Sunday afternoon; a few could be gusty if that turns out to the case. Also, a few of the wetter locations in our area are sensitive to additional rainfall. Risk for excessive rain/isolated flash flooding appears quite low, given speed and timing of the front, but not zero. We will continue to monitor potential on that.

Lows ahead of the front will be in mainly mid to upper 60s Saturday night, followed by highs of 70s-lower 80s from Twin Tiers northward; lower-mid 80s for Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Southern Catskills.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

3 PM Update... It has been challenging to find more than one dry day consecutively in our recent pattern, but the first half of next workweek appears to be fairly quiet.

High pressure and northwesterly flow will dominate the region Monday and Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies, generally comfortable temperatures, and low dewpoints.

Heat and humidity will nudge northward into the region late Wednesday through Friday. However, models depict the belt of westerlies aloft still be in our vicinity, at the top of the low-amplitude heat ridge. This will leave us susceptible to waves running through the westerlies, and thus occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms. It is much too early to discern if any of the thunder could be severe, but the pattern suggests a decent amount of flow aloft which could lead to stronger batches. The heat and humidity could provide the fuel. Monitor the forecast for updates as we get closer.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

655 PM Update

VFR conditions expected through the entire 00z TAF period, except some localized MVFR fog or mist possible at ELM in the early morning hours on Saturday. Some sct to bkn mid level (VFR) clouds will move into AVP, and occasionally ELM-BGM heading into late Saturday morning or afternoon. Otherwise, mainly clear skies much of the time and light winds less than 10 kts expected.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Marine layer clouds with associated CIG restrictions for AVP and perhaps BGM-ELM.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday..Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.