textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

Dry high pressure system remains in place into Monday morning. A fast moving front then brings increasing winds and a period of rain showers heading into Monday afternoon and evening. Some lingering lake effect showers Tuesday, should diminish and giveway to mostly sunny skies later in the day. After a dry start, a fast moving clipper system brings more showers Wednesday afternoon and night along with cooler temperatures by Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

With the southerly flow yet to increase, temperatures have fallen off rather quick this evening. Added in some of our coldest ensemble members to blend in for lows. This lowered the expected low temperatures by a couple of degrees for the overnight.

Quiet, seasonable weather continues tonight under surface high pressure. Monday starts off mostly sunny and a little breezy in the morning with southwest winds 8-15 mph. A fast moving front then races in from the northwest by the early to mid afternoon hours with clouds quickly increasing and a period of rain likely. The rain will mainly be confined to our Central NY zones...with only slight chances down into Northeast PA. Winds remain breezy into the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20-25 mph. The southwest wind out ahead of the front should boost high temperatures up into the mid- 50s to lower 60s for highs...this is about 5-10 degrees above normal for early November. Monday night features a NW flow pattern, with lingering lake enhanced showers over the area as 850mb temperatures fall to around -3C overnight. Precipitation type should remain rain in most locations, with lows in the mid-30s to low 40s expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

After some lingering morning clouds and perhaps a few lake effect showers, conditions should clear heading into Tuesday afternoon. This clearing will be due to a large 1028mb surface high pressure building in from the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Tuesday night remains dry, with some increasing clouds late. Winds turn southwesterly again out ahead of the next approaching clipper system. This fast moving system looks to track just north of our CWA, near Lake Ontario by Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will bring more clouds and chances for showers heading later into Wednesday...again, especially over Central NY. The increasing southerly flow will allow temperatures to reach the mid-50s to lower 60s once again, despite the cloud cover and showers. It should be noted that the current forecast keeps the Wyoming Valley dry through sunset, before shower chances advance here in the evening hours.

Conditions start to dry out Wednesday night behind the cold front. However, with 850mb temperatures falling to around -5C, this will bring additional lake effect showers (rain & higher elevation wet snow) in the northwest flow pattern to portions of Central NY as overnight lows dip down between 30-40 areawide.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The latest model guidance is trending colder on Thursday, with with lingering lake effect rain and snow showers into the morning hours. A cold NW flow will still be in place over the area, with 850mb temperatures hovering around -5 or-6C through much of the day. With that said, it appears late in the day that another surface high pressure center will begin approaching from the the west. This should end the lake effect showers and eventually bring clearing skies along with gradually diminishing NW winds. High temperatures on Thursday are progged to reach near seasonal levels in the 40s to low 50s despite the cold air aloft. We find ourselves between weather systems Thursday night and Friday morning, with the southerly flow increasing yet again, out ahead of the next fast moving frontal system. Clouds increase and chances for rain showers reenter the forecast by Friday afternoon. It will be a bit milder again, due to the southerly flow. The cold front looks to sweep through Friday night, with a west-northwest flow and modest cold air advection heading into Saturday.

There is model uncertainty and differences by the end of next weekend. However, there is an overall consensus on a deep, high amplitude upper level trough pushing into the area likely late Sunday or next Monday. This will again bring a period of rain, followed by potentially some of the coldest air of the fall season seen so far. Most guidance brings 850mb temperatures down to around -10C early next week...with possible lake effect snow showers around. This will be something to watch closely in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Clouds will be increasing and ceilings lowering by tomorrow afternoon as showers approach, the highest chances now look to be focused over KRME and KSYR Winds are expected to be rather light until late tomorrow morning, when south to southwesterly winds start to gust around 20 knots. Data also shows a lower potential for any LLWS as well overnight.

The chance for any low clouds or fog overnight and early tomorrow morning looks to be low with model soundings showing increasing winds just above the surface during this time which would hinder any fog formation.

Outlook...

Monday night... Scattered showers and associated restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night...Rain showers becoming likely and associated restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Thursday...Some lingering restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals; otherwise becoming mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Some rain showers and associated restrictions are possible late in the day and at night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.