textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast high temperatures were brought down even lower, and tomorrows high temperatures were also lowered a couple degrees due to smoke. Surface visibilities were also lowered through the next 36 hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Thick smoke continues today with hazy surface conditions. Smoke looks to linger into Friday but with a low moving in, the winds will become more west to southwest, bringing in less smokey air.

2) Wetter and cooler this weekend as a broad area of low pressure moves through.

3) Northwest flow next week keeps temperatures closer to average, though passing cold fronts could bring some stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

NY and PA are once again downwind of the large fires in South Central Canada and northern MN. The HRRR and RAP smoke models both are indicating that the smoke today could be more surface based. With similar optical depths as yesterday, solar radiance at the surface will be greatly limited so high temperatures were lowered about 10 degrees from models. This may still be too warm if the smoke ends up being as thick as modeled through the late morning and early afternoon.

An area of low pressure developing and moving into the Great Lakes region later tonight into Friday will help change the flow. As the winds switch from NW to W and eventually SW at the surface, less smokey air will move in. It likely wont be completely smoke free as there is smoke upstream in IL and IN but does not look nearly as thick as what is over us right now.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A fairly amplified 500 mb shortwave for the summer time is digging through the Great Lakes region Saturday into Sunday with an associated surface low. This surface low is broad but will be deepening as it moves into the Northeast. Widespread showers and thunderstorms develop Saturday along the warm front lifting in. Chances of precipitation are high for Saturday but it will likely not be an all day washout but more periods of showers and thunderstorms.

There is some low severe potential Saturday into Saturday night with the surface low passing through Northern NY. This puts us in the warm sector with 40 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear. Forecast soundings do show the warm sector being fairly capped, and with smoke still likely lingering to some capacity, that may help strengthen the Cap and limit heating. The severe threat is likely going to occur with the cold front passage late Saturday into Saturday night. Mid level lapse rates at the time of the frontal passage are lackluster so isolated strong wind gusts mixing down would be the main concern.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the low is through Sunday, drier and cooler air moves in. The large ridge of high pressure looks to stall in the central high plains into the Front Range which keeps us on the edge of the ridge. Models have several shortwaves that dive into the Northeast next week. Shear will still be there, with ensemble means over 30 knots, so any of these shortwaves could trigger storms and a few may become severe.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main impacts today will be reduced visibility from smoke across the region. Guidance has backed off the IFR visby for this afternoon as ensemble probabilities for <2sm are trending less likely. However, we cannot rule out a few brief periods of IFR visby but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. The loss of GOES19 satellite data has also added to the low confidence as we are unable to accurately track the smoke other than surface observations upstream. These obs my not be representative of the smoke conditions once it reaches CNY/NEPA.

Smokey conditions should begin to lighten up tonight as much of the smoke slides to the south. Guidance is hinting at some fog formation and IFR restrictions at RME/ITH/BGM if smoke clears fast enough and we can get some clear skies overhead. These restrictions were not included in the TAFs at this time given the low confidence, but we will be watching how this trends for the next TAF set.

Outlook:

Friday... Wildfire smoke is expected to move south of the area with VFR conditions expected.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.