textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the afternoon forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon, but otherwise dry conditions are expected to persist through most of the day Saturday.

2) A dramatic pattern shift will occur over the weekend as a cold front moves through with a round of soaking showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. This will be followed by much colder weather early next week including snow showers for some parts of the area.

3) A gradual warming trend is expected in the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As a shortwave moves east of the area, a northerly flow continues to bring some diurnally-driven instability rain showers to parts of the area, especially across the Poconos- Catskills. A few rogue lightning strikes have occurred and the chance for an isolated thunderstorm will remain until later this afternoon.

By early this evening evening, brief ridging develops aloft and high pressure builds in at the surface, leading to dry conditions through most of the day on Saturday. Most of the day on Saturday will be mostly sunny, with some increasing clouds later in the day. A few isolated showers may sneak into parts of the Finger Lakes Region late Saturday afternoon, but most of the rain holds off until Saturday night. Ahead of an approaching strong cold front, a sharp pressure gradient will develop, which will result in gusty southerly winds. Winds may occasional gust up to 25-35 mph, especially in the afternoon with peak mixing. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in the 70s for most of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A narrow, yet significant ribbon of moisture will pool all the way up from the Western Gulf, causing rain and embedded thunder to sweep across our region late Saturday through Saturday night. While hydro concerns remain low at this time, we will be monitoring areas west of I-81 where some of the higher rainfall totals seem to be eyeing for the potential for flooding to possibly return.

Abruptly colder weather will be ushered in during the second half of the weekend. Temperatures Sunday will initially range from the upper 30s and lower 40s across CNY to the upper 40s to near 50 degrees across the Poconos and southern Catskills, but strong cold air advection with gusty winds will lead to falling temperatures along with scattered showers. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 Sunday night, with any lingering rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers/flurries. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s, and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest night, dropping into the 20s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The blast of cold air will be rather short-lived as ridging starts to build back in the area throughout the middle part of next week. As a result, once we get past Monday's chilly weather, temperatures return closer to normal on Tuesday (but still a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s). Temperatures will then continue to trend warmer Wednesday onwards next week with mid 50s to mid 60s for highs on Wednesday, upper 50s to upper 60s on Thursday, and mid 60s to lower 70s by next Friday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Lingering MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions are expected to improve this afternoon at most sites as cloud cover gradually scatters. ITH has remained LIFR for much of the day and has been slower to improve. Current guidance suggests restrictions may persist longer at ITH, but VFR conditions should return once clearing occurs. VFR is expected at all terminals this evening. However, MVFR to Fuel ALt ceilings are likely to redevelop early Saturday morning. Winds will remain light and variable tonight, becoming southerly with increasing gusts by Saturday afternoon.

Outlook:

Friday night through Saturday early afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Saturday late afternoon through evening...Showery cold front with embedded thunder and a gusty wind shift out of the west- northwest.

Late Saturday night through Sunday...Blustery chilly post- frontal conditions with probable restrictions and scattered showers.

Sunday night through Monday morning...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, then a small chance of showers and minor restrictions Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Front approaches the region with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.