textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances of precipitation were extended into Monday and the coverage of rain and snow showers was expanded today into Monday with a deep trough moving in overhead and enough instability aloft.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A sharp drop in temperatures will be felt to round out the weekend as a strong cold front continues eastward. Scattered rain and snow showers will linger into Monday and the coldest conditions felt Monday night.

2) A gradual warm up is expected from mid week into the start of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of soaking showers east of I-81 will continue to push east and gradually weaken early this morning. As a strong cold front moves through early this morning, post-frontal showers are expected to fill in and continue throughout the day as the supporting deep upper trough moves eastward. As the colder air funnels in with strong cold air advection, showers can mix with and even change over to snow near or shortly after daybreak this morning, especially in the higher terrain of CNY. The positively tilted upper trough is expected to gradually become more neutral toward the end of the day. This is reflected by the mid-level lapse rates which steepen late in the afternoon and evening, while low-level lapse rates are steep throughout the day. The steep lapse rates combined with daytime heating is expected to lead to widespread scattered showers, and there can be enough instability to lead to some rumbles of thunder, especially around the Finger Lakes region. Some small hail or graupel cannot be ruled out as well. Highs today range from the upper 30s and 40s, but with strong cold air advection along with some breezing conditions this afternoon, these highs are expected to occur during the late morning/early afternoon before temperatures fall. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 tonight. There is another lobe of energy that looks to rotate through which can bring a period of light snow showers to the region tonight, especially after midnight.

With the shortwave trough remaining overhead, 850mb temperatures hovering around -10C and northwesterly flow continuing, additional isolated to scattered rain and snow showers are expected, mainly from the Twin Tiers north. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s for most. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest night, dropping into the lower to mid 20s across much of the area with some upper teens in the higher terrain of the Catskills and toward the Tug Hill.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The blast of winter-like conditions will be rather short-lived as the upper trough slides to the east Tuesday and ridging gradually builds back in aloft later in the week. As a result, once we get past Monday's chilly weather, temperatures start to gradually recover. Tuesday will still be several degrees below average with highs in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Then the warming trend starts to become more noticeable Wednesday onwards into the start of next weekend. Wednesday's highs are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, Thursday climbs into the upper 50s to upper 60s, and mid 60s to lower 70s are expected by Friday. A weak disturbance embedded in the flow aloft may lead to some isolated showers later Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered rain showers continue across the area. Temperatures are falling and now in the mid 30s across most of the area, allowing for some snow to mix in with the rain showers across higher elevations this morning. IFR conditions remain at BGM and ITH and should last through mid morning. AVP and ELM will have a chance to see tempo IFR restrictions as heavier showers pass through the area this morning. SYR and RME should remain MVFR/Fuel Alt.

Rain should push out of the area around noon. Lake effect showers are expected to stream across portions of the area this afternoon, with ITH/BGM/ELM having the best shot at seeing showers. Restrictions are not expected with these showers, but cannot be ruled out if a few of the heavier showers move over a terminal. Confidence in this is low so it was not included in the TAFs.

Outlook:

Monday morning...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, then a small chance of showers and minor restrictions Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Front approaches the region with restrictions possible.

Thursday...VFR conditions possible inbetween systems.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.