textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A lake effect snow warning has been issued for Oneida County from noon today until 8 am Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much colder today with lake effect snow for Oneida County today through Wednesday morning.

2) Temperatures return to near normal by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures this morning are running about 40 degrees cooler than yesterday. Strong cold air advection has taken hold, and that cold air mass pushing across the lakes will produce lake effect snow for portions of the area this afternoon and tonight. The wind orientation will initially be westerly, and although we may see a few area wide snow showers this morning, the more organized lake effect snow will not develop until later this afternoon. The upper trough shifts eastward later today, and flow will become more west-northwesterly, which will favor an upstream lake connection and allow for the lake effect snow to shift southward into Oneida County this afternoon. A fairly organized lake effect band will likely be present late in the afternoon into tonight. There is still a little uncertainty on where this band will exactly set up, but the most likely spot at this time is across Central Oneida County and thus the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a lake effect snow warning. The heavy snow band may also push south into Northern Onondaga and Madison Counties, but confidence is still too low at this time to include them in any headlines at this point, but there is potential that winter weather headlines may be needed if confidence increases later today. Finally, ridging will start to build into the region early Wednesday morning and this should bring an end to the lake effect snow around sunrise tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Ridging will start to take hold on Wednesday into Thursday and this will allow temperatures to moderate through the week. By Thursday, highs will climb close to normal values for this time of year and temperatures will continue to climb into the weekend. A few minor shortwave perturbations push across the area Friday through Sunday, but this will only bring some light precipitation and no major systems are expected at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Scattered cellular lake effect snow showers will stream across much of the area today. Coverage should pick up in the afternoon with temporary MVFR restrictions possible at AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH. A few bands of more organized snow are expected to move south into the SYR/RME area, bringing a chance for temporary IFR restrictions this afternoon as the bands wobble in and out of the terminals. Currently, it looks like the band will settle between the SYR and RME terminals tonight, but this will have to be monitored as a small change east or west would have greater impacts at SYR or RME.

Winds will gust between 25-35kts today, kicking up some blowing snow which should help achieve the restrictions mentioned above.

Outlook:

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR; a low chance for spotty rain/snow showers.

Friday night into Saturday...A chance for additional rain/snow showers as a clipper moves through the region; low confidence on timing.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Paz038. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from noon today to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ009-037. Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>018- 022>025-036-044-055.