textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes for this update, but the potential for severe thunderstorms remains for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a pleasant day today, showers and thunderstorms track across the area for Thursday. Some of the storms will have the potential for damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours resulting in flooding.

2) Mainly dry weather expected Friday through the weekend as high pressure crosses the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure and a ridge tracking out of the region will provide for warm and dry conditions today. Highs in the mid 70s to near 80 with Td values in the upper 50 to around 60 will keep conditions comfortable for the day.

A warm front will track across the area on Thursday morning, ushering in a warmer and more humid airmass within the warm sector of a sfc low tracking across Ontario and Quebec. Showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across the area, first with a pre-frontal trough during the afternoon, and then again with an incoming cold front during the mid-evening hours. Most of the guidance brings around 1,500 J/kg of cape into the area. There still remains some uncertainty with the amount of clearing after the passage of the warm front and ahead of the incoming pre-frontal trough. Shear values support damaging wind gusts with a lesser extent for hail; an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Shear values during the afternoon/evening in the 30+ knot range are expected and with increased clearing, cape values could reach 2,000+ J/kg. For Thursday, a 'Slight Risk' is in place from SPC for all but the far western portion of the BGM forecast area, where a 'Marginal Risk' for severe thunderstorms is in place.

PWat values will increase to over 1.50 inches on Thursday, leading to the greater potential for thunderstorms to cause heavy rainfall and for flooding. A 'Marginal Risk' of excessive runoff is in place for the entire area from WPC. A 'Slight Risk' is in place across the southeastern portion of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure approaching and then crossing the region Friday into the weekend will bring a round of mostly dry and fair weather. The only caveat to this is a trough axis crossing the region on Friday may bring a few quick passing showers.

Temperatures will cool a few degrees on Friday and Saturday behind the passing cold front on Thursday night, but warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will return for Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period with high clouds moving through this afternoon and into this evening. There could be some patchy fog development once again, especially at ELM late tonight into Thursday morning. There is potential for showers and thunderstorms to move through tomorrow afternoon, but confidence on timing and location is uncertain at this time.

Otherwise surface winds will be mainly southeast to southwest (or variable) less than about 7 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday morning...Mainly VFR, restrictions possible with morning fog.

Thursday Afternoon through Friday morning...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system bringing showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe, with gusty erratic winds and hail.

Friday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday... Restrictions possible as a low pressure system moves north of the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.