textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly quieter weather expected into the first half of the weekend as ridging increases and high pressure moves into the region. The exception to this will be a passing trough that may bring a few showers to the area Friday evening/night.

2) A potent shortwave trough and sfc low expected to move through the region on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Increased ridging and a sfc high building into the region out of Canada will result in mostly dry conditions for today through Saturday. Temperatures will cool a few degrees to the mid 70s to low 80s out ahead of the Canadian sfc high.

While mostly dry weather is expected, a few passing mid-level troughs over or just south of the forecast area may cause showers at a minimum, with a few thunderstorms also possible. Guidance is still somewhat uncertain with timing or track of the passing troughs within the northwest flow of the large ridge still over the Central portion of the CONUS. The first trough there is some better agreement that the trough will pass just south of the forecast area later Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Another trough will track across the region on Friday night into Saturday morning, but guidance is still not in as much agreement with track and rain potential. Timing and track of the passing troughs will be important as the lack of daytime heating and displacement from better moisture will help to minimize rain potential and especially thunderstorm potential. The best potential for showers/storms is expected for the Friday evening/night trough.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potent shortwave trough and sfc low tracking across the northern fringe of the large ridge over the Central CONUS will move into the area on Sunday afternoon. While it is still too far out for the higher resolution models, this setup within a northwest flow will result in showers and thunderstorms at a minimum. As usual, timing and amount of instability available, including cloud cover, will factor in significantly for the potential for this system to cause strong to severe thunderstorms for Sunday. Trends will be monitored as more higher resolution guidance becomes available for Sunday afternoon. An influx of moisture ahead of the approaching sfc low will also help increase the potential for heavier rain within showers/storms.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Restrictions are still expected to develop through the overnight due to low clouds and fog. Most locations should get into the MVFR and IFR categories. Potential for LIFR at KELM. These restrictions should lift by 14Z with a VFR conditions and a slight northwest breeze for the remainder of the day Thursday.

Outlook:

Thursday night... Areas of low clouds and fog possible after midnight.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Areas of low clouds or fog and associated restrictions possible early each morning; low chance for an isolated shower or storm Friday.

Sunday...Restrictions likely with showers and possible thunderstorms.

Monday...A low chance for showers/storms and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.