textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak frontal boundary will bring light rain showers, and potentially a storm or two, today, mainly for Central New York. Another system moves through mainly Northeast Pennsylvania and the Southern Tier on Thursday, bringing rain showers and potentially an afternoon storm or two.

2) High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday morning before the next frontal system approaches Saturday late afternoon and early evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Quiet weather expected overnight tonight with some patchy valley fog and thin high clouds hanging around. Going into the daytime, a weak frontal boundary is expected to move in from the northwest. By the time it makes it to our area, it will have weakened a bit, and should have enough energy to bring some light rain showers, and perhaps a weak storm or two, mainly for Central New York between 1pm and 6pm. Later tonight, valley fog will likely develop again, otherwise quiet weather overnight. Heading into Thursday, another disturbance, off to the south this time, will skate across Northeast Pennsylvania and the Southern Tier, bringing rain showers and potentially a storm or two in the afternoon. Thursday is a little more uncertain, with a few different deterministic models suggesting either a northern or southern track. Seeing this, we decided to stick with the NBM solution for now, which has chances for precipitation mainly for Northeast PA and Southern Tier, but includes some chances for portions of Central NY, which aligns with the uncertainty seen in current deterministic model runs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure returns Friday and Saturday morning, bringing more summer-like temperatures in the upper-70s to low-80s, with comfortable dewpoints in the mid-50s Friday and low-60s Saturday. The next frontal system approaches from the west heading into late afternoon and early evening as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region. Since this is almost a week away, not a lot of details other than there will likely be widespread rainfall, and likely some storms following the boundary as it crosses over the area. Timing is probably the most uncertain, with some guidance having an earlier arrival with precipitation, as early as Saturday afternoon, while others have a later arrival of overnight Saturday into Sunday. As newer runs come out with time, we should see a better time line of events for this system. With the trough lifting north and east Sunday night, there could be some lingering showers for portions of Central NY on Monday, but the system's speed through the coming days will determine if there's any precipitation at all for Monday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected this evening and overnight with the exception of patchy fog developing at a few sites. Some drier air has worked its way in this evening which makes confidence in fog a bit lower and some high clouds are expected to stream overhead into the overnight hours, but restrictions remains possible at ELM, ITH and RME with an uptick in moisture prior to daybreak.

Any early morning low clouds and fog should clear by 13Z leading to mainly VFR conditions through the rest of the TAF. A weakening frontal boundary will be approaching from the west with at least a broken line of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms, so tempo groups were used for the CNY terminals, which have a better chance of seeing some scattered convection compared to AVP. Thunder was kept out of the forecast for now with low confidence on where any isolated storms may develop with modest amounts of instability expected to be in place.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR; isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Areas of low clouds/fog possible late.

Thursday...Scattered showers and a chance for thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions: areas of morning fog, especially near ELM.

Saturday night into Sunday...Showers and potentially thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.