textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added more lake effect snow overnight, accumulations are on the lighter side but a widespread dusting to an inch is expected now.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold northerly flow continues through tomorrow with well below normal temperatures as well as light Lake Effect snow showers from the Finger Lakes region down into the Twin Tiers.

2) A broad area of low pressure moves through late week with temperatures initially warming Wednesday and Thursday then a cold front passage Friday leading to precipitation chances and falling temperatures into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Another cloudy day across most of the interior Northeast with cold NW flow keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures at 850 mb fall from around -10C to -15C tonight as a cold pocket of air moves in. This will help develop lake effect snow after sunset. The fetch across Lake Ontario is short, organized banding is unlikely, but widespread light to moderate snow showers are likely overnight from the Finger Lakes Region down into the northern Tier of PA. Some of the higher elevations could see up to a half inch of snow overnight, with most areas just getting a dusting. Chances of precipitation were extended through most of the overnight hours until about 8 am tomorrow where the 850 mb RH is >80% and temperatures below -12C to get dendrite formation. Tomorrow, flow aloft finally becomes more westerly to even a bit southwesterly, which will help the clouds scatter out. Despite 850 mb temperatures staying below 0C tomorrow, the strong sun at this time of the year will help boost temperatures into the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A broad area of low pressure forms under a large, low amplitude 500 mb trough Wednesday into Thursday, with a warm front lifting into our region Wednesday. Initially there is not a lot of moisture so chances of precipitation remain low Wednesday region wide. Slightly better chances are Wednesday night when higher dew point air advects in, but by that time the warm front may be north of our region. Chances of precipitation were kept in CNY and northward Wednesday night. Thursday is warm with 850 mb temperatures over 10C though the upper level RH is increasing so there will be some clouds as well.

The warmth is short lived as another strong late season cold front likely moves through as the broad low pressure system moves into New England sometime Friday. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, there could be some instability so thunderstorms are possible. Most models have the front moving through earlier in the day so that would limit most thunder potential but the later in the day, the more instability could build ahead of the front. 0-6 km shear is over 60 knots so if thunderstorms do form with the later passage, the severe potential will have to be watched.

Friday night into Saturday will have a very cold air mass move in for late March. 850 mb temperature probabilities of <-15C are over 50% for CNY and even getting to near 30% all the way south into NEPA. Temperatures at the surface will struggle to get above freezing while this air mass is in place. Luckily with the zonal flow, the cold begins to vacate the region by later in the day Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Post-frontal northwesterly flow will maintain MVFR to low-VFR ceilings across the terminals tonight. Most restrictive conditions will be found at KITH and KBGM where moisture trapped below a strengthening subsidence inversion will keep MVFR ceilings (BKN020-030) locked in through the early morning hours. KITH will see brief visibility restrictions in light lake effect snow showers through 06Z.

Northwest winds remain elevated tonight, particularly at KBGM, KELM, and KAVP where gusts of 15 to 20 kts are expected. Conditions improve late Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in, leading to VFR skies and light/variable winds for all terminals by 18Z.

Outlook:

Tuesday night...High pressure across the Northeast with mainly VFR conditions.

Wednesday...Cold front begins to move in late from the north with rain showers as well as potential restrictions.

Thursday...Warm front pushes up from the southwest with rain showers and restrictions possible. Rain changes over to snow overnight.

Friday and Saturday...High pressure builds into the region with VFR conditions expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.