textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for much of the area through 10 AM this morning as widespread fog has developed with visibility one half to one quarter mile or less.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure building in will lead to pleasant and dry conditions today. After this morning's fog burns off, plenty of sunshine is in store the rest of the day.

2) A broad upper level low moving in later Saturday into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Widespread and locally dense fog has formed early this morning, especially in the valleys with visibilities down to one half mile or less in many locations. Given the widespread nature of the dense fog this morning, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for most counties until 10 AM. The northern Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and toward the Tug Hill were left out of the advisory for now with this area seeing little to no rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. It is possible this advisory could be extended for a short period of time or an SPS issued for patchy dense fog in this area as well as for Pike and Sullivan Counties if fog coverage becomes more expansive on satellite prior to daybreak.

After the cool and foggy start to the day, it will become pleasant with plenty of sunshine as high pressure pushes in from the north. This will lead to dry conditions for the area through tonight and likely into early Saturday before lifting off to the northeast. With skies expected to stay mostly clear tonight, areas of fog are expected to return, mostly in the valleys. Highs today range from the mid 70s to the low 80s and it won't be quite as cool tonight/early Saturday morning compared to stepping out the door this morning with lows in the 50s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A long wave upper trough will be digging south from Canada and across much of the eastern U.S. later Saturday and into Sunday. As the trough amplifies Saturday night into Sunday, a surface low is expected to develop near the eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile a separate surface low is projected to develop in the mid-Atlantic region toward the coast Saturday afternoon and lift northward. While there remains some uncertainty in timing and placement of these features and exactly how they may interact, guidance continues the trend of keeping the mid-Atlantic low to our east Saturday afternoon and evening. As moisture is drawn northward by the upper trough and the feature likely passing to our east, there can be some scattered showers around, but rain showers look to become more widespread later Saturday night into Sunday as the Great Lakes low slowly lifts northeast, passing by just north and west of the CWA.

Sunday night into Monday a strong 500mb closed low forms and moves over the area, with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps 6C to 10C and a west to northwest flow in place. This all sets up additional showers for Monday. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before dry conditions move in Wednesday. Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Rainfall earlier today across the Southern Tier and Northeast PA has led to widespread fog development across much of the region. Rain did not reach SYR/RME, so widespread fog is not anticipated at these sites. However, some potential remains, so TEMPO groups were included. ELM and ITH fogged in quickly this evening, with LIFR ceiling and visibilities expected to persist through around 14Z. BGM may initially remain above the valley fog, though it should eventually work its way up to the terminal. Fog also has a good chance of reaching AVP, though confidence is lower on whether restrictions will be primarily to visibility or ceilings. Therefore an IFR TEMPO group was used at this time. Once fog dissipates after 14Z this morning, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday morning...Mainly VFR conditions; areas of morning fog, especially near KELM.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Showers and potentially thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ022>025- 036-044>046-055>057.