textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures continue through at least early next week, with well above normal temperatures through this week. .

2) An active pattern starts Thursday with showers at times through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Persistent ridging along with a passing warm front will bring temperatures well above normal for the entire area through the rest of this week. Wednesday and Thursday will be the two warmest days before a cold front crosses the area, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most areas. Temperatures will cool each day for Friday through Sunday, first behind the cold front later Thursday, then with another cold front and sfc low crossing the area on Saturday. With the cooling temperatures, afternoon highs will approach, but are expected to remain above normal for Sunday and Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The cold front associated with an occluding sfc low will track across the region on Thursday, bringing the best potential for widespread showers in the past couple of weeks. Most of the showers will move across the area during the early to mid morning hours, amounting to a tenth to quarter of an inch of rainfall. The sfc low will slowly track across the Great Lakes and to New England from late Wednesday through Sunday, becoming vertically stacked with its mid and upper level lows. This will result in a prolonged period where showers will be possible at times within the cyclonic flow for most of the area. Behind the passing cold front on Thursday dryer air will move into the region behind the passing cold front, providing a break in the showers. There is some uncertainty among guidance for how much dry air moves into the region and how much the showers diminish. As the mid & upper level lows/troughs approach and then cross the area, the potential for showers will increase some to the west with some increased potential for lake enhancement off of the eastern Great Lakes as 850H temperatures cool. Shower potential will increase late Friday into Saturday from west to east, from the mid and upper level lows and troughs crossing the area. Shower will linger into Sunday morning.

For Friday into Saturday, a wave of low pressure will track along the coast along the slow moving frontal boundary from Thursday, increasing the potential for showers/rain for the far eastern areas. There is still plenty of uncertainty at this point for how far west the coastal wave will track, but most guidance keeps it just east of the BGM forecast area.

Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada will bring another chance for showers late Sunday night into Monday, with lake enhancement adding to the shower potential.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Light scattered rain showers continue to push through CNY early this afternoon, and should be east of the area in a couple of hours. MVFR ceilings are holding on at RME/ITH/BGM, but should lift in the next hour or two as satellite images show the cloud deck scattering to the west. High pressure centered to our east will control the weather pattern through the TAF period. The positioning of the ridge to the east will allow SW flow to push warm and moist air into the region through the overnight hours. Guidance keeping conditions VFR through the TAF period, but is hinting at a low chance for MVFR conditions around sunrise with temps falling to the dewpoint. Winds are expected to remain active through the night, which would limit fog development outside of sheltered valleys. Confidence in restrictions developing is too low to include any in the TAFs, but if we can get a period of clear skies and light to calm winds, MVFR restrictions cannot be ruled out at ITH/ELM/BGM. Hopefully guidance will show some better signals with this evenings TAF set.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night...MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.