textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend warmer early next week as a frontal system brings chances for widespread rain and afternoon thunderstorms, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Temperatures then fall back below normal for the second half of the work week as the pattern remains unsettled.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extensive clouds over the region are still expected to dissipate during the overnight hours allowing for clearing skies in many areas. Given rather low dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s it won't take more than a few hours to achieve frost and freezing conditions and the headlines will continue into the morning.

Ridging builds overhead today and low level flow will become more westerly during the afternoon. This will result in colder air retreating and temperatures slightly warmer during the day with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will increase into the afternoon with gusts peaking around 25 mph. A weak disturbance will clip the region and bring spotty showers and sprinkles to parts of north-central NY tonight, especially along and north of the NYS Thruway corridor. Overnight temperatures will fall into the mid- upper 30s and low 40s as winds gradually become calmer.

Some spotty showers may linger into early Monday up north. Otherwise, southwest flow will advect warmer air into the region, helping continue the warming trend through Tuesday. Temperatures will climb into the 60s and potentially low 70s on Monday. Then most locations are expected to see high temperatures solidly in the 70s on Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will be a bit more mild, only falling into the 40s and 50s both Monday and Tuesday night.

Models remain relatively consistent with a frontal system approaching the region Tuesday with the highest and most persistent chance of rain coming for Tuesday night to Wednesday night. Then the model camps diverge slightly with the GFS lingering precipitation into Thursday as a secondary wave develops on the boundary while the ECMWF is a little faster moving things east on Thursday. The GEFS and EC ensembles and AI models support their respective camps.

Being in the warm sector ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon suggests the potential for thunderstorm activity with instability projected to be 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and shear of 30 to 35 knots. Both low and mid-level lapse rates in the neighborhood of 6 to 7 C/km suggest a period to monitor for the potential of strong storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Colder air will fill in behind the departing front on Thursday with the front finally exiting the region Thursday night. Low pressure develops along the front, lifting north into New England. Cold, wrap around northwest flow behind this low will support a continuation of clouds and moisture for additional rain showers on Friday. Temperatures will fall back below normal for the late half of the week as highs will only be in the 50s and lows drop back into the 30s and 40s. Looking at the punch of cold thicknesses, the blended guidance may have a bit too much of a climatology slant later next week and temperatures Thursday and Friday could very well be cooler than this update. Will need to monitor these trends.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure is building into the region with clearing skies and VFR conditions today and tonight. Winds will be light this morning, and then increase across the region in the afternoon.

Outlook:

Monday... Mainly VFR, but restrictions will be possible at times in isolated to scattered showers on Monday.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.