textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minimal changes were made to the overnight forecast update. We're continuing to monitor the positioning of the warm front that will arrive on Wednesday, which is further discussed below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A system to bring widespread precipitation to the area Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

2) Additional systems will bring potential for precipitation across the area late in the week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low pressure system over the Midwest will lift a warm frontal boundary through the region early Wednesday morning, bringing widespread precipitation throughout the day and into the overnight hours. The exact positioning of this frontal boundary remains uncertain, but there is a high likelihood that it will bisect somewhere in our forecast area. Since guidance remains uncertain, resulting in our low confidence, minimal changes to the forecast were made. North of this boundary, temperatures will be cold enough for a wintry mix or snow to be the primary form of precipitation, but south of this boundary, precipitation would likely be mainly rain. Headlines may be needed if conditions trend cooler, leading to more widespread potential for ice accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The return of high pressure should result in mainly dry conditions on Thursday with temperatures remaining mild in the high 30s to low 40s. The end of the week is a bit more uncertain as model guidance continues to show another low pressure system over the Midwest that lifts into the Great Lakes on Friday. Additional precipitation on the backside of this system may result in additional scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonably mild through Saturday, but colder air will begin to filter into the region on Sunday and likely persist into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Widespread IFR and MVFR has developed as warm air moves over the snow cover. Fog looks to last much of the morning and possibly into the afternoon at SYR and RME with only marginal improvement by 0Z tonight. ITH and BGM dont have the fog or mist but the low cigs look to stick around with cigs scattering out at ELM and AVP later today briefly. Tonight, stratus overspreads the region with MVFR and IFR cigs, with fog redevelopment possible at SYR and RME.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR restrictions likely and IFR possible for much of the area with rain moving through; especially on Wednesday. Confidence moderate.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, with just a slight chance for a few rain showers around at times. Confidence low to moderate.

Friday...Rain likely with associated restrictions. Could mix with snow north, near RME. Confidence low to moderate.

Saturday...Lingering snow to the north and rain south with associated restrictions. Confidence remains low on restrictions given the uncertainty with precipitation type and intensity.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.