textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat for severe thunderstorms for today continues to diminish. That being said, still cannot rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm late later this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and humid conditions continues this evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through about midnight.

2) Following the passage of a cold front tonight and Wednesday morning, much cooler temperatures will return for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

3) Memorial Day weekend continues to look showery and cool, with perhaps slightly drier conditions and warmer temperatures by Memorial Day itself.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cloud cover from this morning has lingered into this afternoon. As a result, instability is largely lacking. A few isolated showers have developed, but due to this limited instability and lack of forcing, these have not been able to develop into thunderstorms up to this point (as of 2:15PM). A few pulse thunderstorms still could develop at any point this afternoon or early evening, but the overall threat for severe thunderstorms continues to diminish.

A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will likely track eastward through Western NY this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of those thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but indications point to this line dissipating as it approaches Central NY and Northeast PA with the loss of daytime heating and the lack of elevated instability to maintain convection overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As a cold front pushes eastward through the area on Wednesday, much cooler and drier air will filter in behind it. Dew points will fall from the lower 60s around dawn to the 40s for most of the area by the late afternoon. Temperatures will also gradually drop, or remain steady in the 60s; at least for Central NY. Farther to the south and east (Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Catskills), warmer air may linger longer as the cold front likely doesn't pass through those areas until the afternoon on Wednesday. This also means that some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for those areas in the afternoon, but right now it appears any threat for severe thunderstorms should be east of the area/closer to the coast.

Following the passage of the cold front, colder air will remain in place through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the 60s and overnight lows mainly in the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Memorial Day weekend unfortunately continues to look unsettled with showers and cool weather, as moisture advects into the region from the south and an upper level low moving in from the west. The most widespread showers will be on Saturday, which will also be the coolest day with highs only in the 50s for most of the area. Scattered showers will likely linger through at least Sunday. Depending on how quickly the above mentioned upper level low exits the area to the east, Monday/Memorial Day could either be another day of scattered showers, or perhaps a mainly dry day. Either way, Memorial Day should feature a return to near-normal temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s, after several below normal days.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

With the timing of the cold front passage not for another few hours still, confidence is low that any showers or thunderstorms hold together long enough to reach any terminals. SYR and ELM have the best chance if the storms do make it and an amendment will be made if so. CIGs fall to MVFR across CNY behind the front overnight, with a few isolated rain showers or drizzle. ITH and RME have the best shot of rain showers overnight with the help of the terrain but rain cant be ruled out at any of the other CNY terminals. The front does not reach AVP until tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon. There will be some thunderstorms to form along the front in the late morning into early afternoon for AVP so a prob30 has been introduced for rough timing. Dry air mixes down across CNY so terminals in NY will trend towards VFR by the 16Z to 19Z timeframe.

Outlook:

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.