textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Consistent with the previous forecast, made some slight changes to the coverage of showers this weekend and temperatures early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With the departure of an upper level low, this weekend will feature a substantial warming trend.

2) Very warm conditions will overspread the forecast area early next week. There will be a chance for thunderstorms especially heading into Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES 1...

An upper level low over the northeast coast will rotate and lift north and out of the region later today. Northwest flow behind the departing system will bring one final cool day before an upper ridge begins building into the area. Wrap around moisture associated with the low will continue to produce isolated to scattered and pockets of drizzle early this morning, though most precipitation will remain light. Showers will dissipate as the morning progresses as drier air moves in. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly cloudy through the morning before becoming partly sunny this afternoon as high pressure builds northward into the region. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

The overall pattern shifts this weekend as a ridge builds into the region, bringing a much warmer air mass. Southwest flow and warm air advection will allow temperatures to rebound into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday and Sunday. Despite the influence of high pressure, mainly clear skies are only expected through Saturday morning, as a low pressure system approaching from the midwest increases cloud cover later in the day. A warm front is expected to approach the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, bringing the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Warm air advection will continue into midweek, with temperatures climbing into the 80s and possibly reaching 90 degrees in a few valley locations. ECMWF and Consall guidance suggest highs mainly in the low to mid 80s while the NBM trends warmer with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures for Monday were adjusted slightly lower to account for the NBM running too warm during seasonal transition, keeping central NY and northeast PA below heat advisory criteria. With southwest flow in place, moisture advection ahead of an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The cold front is currently expected to move through the region around Wednesday, though some timing differences remain within the ensemble guidance. This could bring additional showers and possibly thunderstorms, especially if the front moves through during the afternoon or evening hours.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions persist this morning, with IFR/LIFR restrictions at KBGM, KITH, and KRME. Occasional IFR restrictions will also be possible at KSYR through the rest of the morning. These restrictions are expected to give way to gradual improvement this afternoon. A return to VFR conditions is expected at all terminals by late this afternoon/early this evening.

Outlook:

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm late Saturday into Sunday, which may result in brief restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.