textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures will decreased below guidance for tonight. Frost advisory was expanded to include additional counties in Central NY, such as Tioga and Souther Cayuga County with this latest update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will keep conditions dry but cool through the end of the work week.

2) The holiday weekend will be cool and showery, though temperatures will begin to trend warmer beginning Memorial Day Weekend.

3) The warming trend will continue early next week, and while some spotty showers will be possible, conditions will be mostly dry.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Broad high pressure over the Northeast will keep conditions dry the rest of the day and through the end of the workweek. Clearing skies will lead to efficient radiational cooling tonight so temperatures were lowered below guidance using the previous forecast and NBM tenth percentile. This dropped the forecast another degree or two from the previous update. This then resulted in more areas favorable for frost, so the current Frost Advisory was expanded to additional counties within the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier of Central NY.

For Friday, some peeks of sun will be possible early in the day before cloud cover increases with the high pressure sliding east of the region. Still, this early sunshine should help temperatures rebound back into the 60s and possibly low 70s in some valley locations. Overnight, the next wave of energy begins to move in with moisture being advected northward. This will introduce the next system late Friday night with rain spreading southwest to northeast heading into Saturday. Temperatures will drop into the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

To kick off the holiday weekend, rain will become more widespread Saturday as a low pressure system slowly moves from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Rain will continue Saturday night with conditions then gradually drying out throughout the day Sunday. PWATs with this system are 1.25 to 1.5 inches so rainfall will not be particularly heavy but could be moderate at times. Model guidance varies with how much rainfall is expected. The GFS continues to be one of the wettest solutions with amounts of 2+ inches for portions of Northeast PA from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Given the uncertainty, this forecast will lean on this NBM which does have 1 to 1.5 inches during this same timeframe. This amount of rainfall will fall over a long enough period after a mostly dry stretch and should not lead to any hydro issues. Models are trending toward a brief dry period Sunday night before the next round of rain quickly moves through on Monday. High pressure and dry conditions return Monday night.

The rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures cool on Saturday with highs only in the 50s. A few locations in north-central NY may just reach the 60s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the 40s. Temperatures then improve from there as highs will be in the 50s and 60s Sunday and then 70s on Monday. The nightly temps follow a similar trend with lows in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Early next week, a ridge begins to build over the Central US while an upper low develops over Quebec. While there will be surface high pressure in place, this will lead to the potential for spotty, passing showers with systems in the vicinity of our region. Even so, conditions will be mostly dry during this period. Temperatures will continue the warming trend with potential for some valley locations to see 80 degree daytime highs.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Friday). A VFR deck of clouds has already scattered out at KSYR and KRME and this will occur for the remainder of terminals by this evening. Winds will be light and mostly out of the north this afternoon and tonight, before gradually shifting to out of the east by Friday morning.

Outlook:

Friday afternoon through Friday evening...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Saturday night...Widespread rain showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Lingering scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ009-017-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-057.