textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continue to adjust dewpoints for today and Friday, otherwise, no major changes to the forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

) Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the region on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain near average but humidity will increase.

2) Active weather with temperatures near normal expected across the region this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The weather pattern is setting up to allow a parade of shortwave troughs to push through the area from Thursday into the weekend, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorm chances into next week.

The first shortwave will arrive Thursday morning as SSW winds push humid air into the region. Surface heating combined with dewpoints in the low 70s will allow CAPE values to climb into the 1500-2000 j/kg range in the afternoon across much of the region. Bulk shear values look weak, but enhanced mid-level winds associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for the development of marginally organized storm clusters/linear segments. Isolated wind damage will be possible, especially east of the Finger Lakes where shear looks to be a little stronger. These storms should fizzle out by the mid- evening hours. To go along with the isolated wind damage threat, heavy rain is expected to develop as PWATs climb to the 2in range across much of the area. We are not seeing much threat for training or very slow moving storms, but with the recent heavy rains, flash flood guidance is pretty low and a 30 min period of heavy rain could cause flash flooding issues, especially across the Southern Tier, NEPA and Catskills.

Friday will see another shortwave move through that should kick off a line of showers and storms with heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. The severe threat looks lower for Friday as bulk shear is in the low 20kts across the area with CAPE in the 1000-1500 j/kg, but an isolated storm could become severe with damaging winds as the main threat.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal Thursday and Friday and with the increased humidity, the heat index is expected to rise into the low to mid 90s in our valleys both afternoons.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The weather pattern is not progged to change much this weekend and into next week, with the Bermuda High sitting out near Bermuda, keeping our winds mostly SSW while a strong ridge remains out west and a broad trough sits over central Canada. The positioning of these features puts mostly zonal flow overhead with a cavalcade of weak shortwaves moving through the pattern. This keeps rain and thunderstorm chances active into next week, but severe chances look low as the parameters are currently lacking for a severe weather outbreak. Isolated periods of heavy rain will be possible this weekend, although PWATs look to fall below 1.5in by Saturday so widespread heavy rain does not look likely. But given our low FF Guidance numbers, a heavy downpour could cause some flooding issues.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions are expected to last until around 12 to 14z for ELM, BGM, and AVP. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Most guidance does not have much for restrictions, so conditions were kept at VFR from 18z onward, though restrictions will be possible with any shower or storm that passes directly over a terminal. Winds will be light throughout this period, though could become gusty within the vicinity of showers and storms that develop.

Outlook:

Thursday night through Monday...Unsettled with repeating times of showers and scattered thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.