textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered snow totals in portions of CNY for Monday. Timing the potential for pockets of freezing rain Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Round of light snow with clipper on Monday.

2) Freezing rain possible in spots Tuesday night.

3) What starts off as a gradual thaw Wednesday through Friday may get abruptly warmer with rapid snow melt Saturday. Higher uncertainty with temperatures Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

A clipper system is still expected to track across northern portions of the region on Monday. Lift and moisture still looks sufficient for a period of light snow near and north of the track. Some higher winds aloft and warmer temperatures should keep the snow ratios lower than most events recently. Also, the QPF from the NBM looked like a high outlier compared to the Hires guidance. Overall, a sharper cutoff with totals with 1-3 inches near the NY Thruway to dustings in NEPA.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next in a series of systems has trended slightly stronger,faster and further north Tuesday night. Temperatures around 850 mb look to warm fairly rapidly ahead of this system leading to either freezing rain or rain based on surface temperatures. Some higher elevations in the western Catskills, NEPA and northern Oneida county have the best chance for a period of freezing rain and light ice accumulations. QPF is modeled slightly higher due to the terrain in N.Oneida, so a tenth of an inch or so of ice could be realized there.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A gradual thaw should occur Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures staying in the 30's and 40's. However, ensemble guidance continues to warm well into the 40's Friday and Saturday. Model guidance is trending toward a deeper low tracking well west of the region which would bring 50's for temperatures and dewpoints Saturday. Given some uncertainity our forecast stays closer to the NBM/ensemble guidance but if some of the operational model runs are realized a very rapid snowmelt would occur Saturday up north. Periods of rainfall could factor in as well to any flooding potential. Will have to watch for potential ice jams too.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

MVFR stratus is likely going to persist all night at every terminal but AVP who will see just barely VFR cigs with only brief periods of MVFR.

Snow moves in after 12Z from SW to NE. AVP looks to have too much dry air so only brief MVFR restrictions is likely. BGM, ELM, and ITH have trended down with intensity of snowfall and duration so a tempo has been added in for period most likely going to see some MVFR and IFR restriction. Confidence was too low to have IFR tempos yet. SYR and RME have the best chance at seeing IFR vis and cigs from snow tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon given better moisture in place.

The main band of snow moves off after 18Z with a window of improved conditions. MVFR to VFR is likely at some point in the 18Z to 22Z window at all terminals outside of RME where the front may stall near the airport. Low stratus wraps back in around 0Z with some drizzle or snow flurries possible.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...A chance of rain/snow showers and possible restrictions.

Thursday...High pressure with VFR conditions.

Friday...Possible restrictions with rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.