textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs were lowered in NE PA into the early evening hours. There is now just an outside chance for an isolated shower or storm near the Wyoming Valley or Poconos through sunset; but more than likely it stays dry. Also, adjusted PoPs Thursday morning, as CAMs are now showing potential for isolated showers over the Finger Lakes and the Central Southern Tier of NY.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining warm today with plenty of afternoon sunshine. A moisture-starved cold front pushing south this evening will allow noticeably cooler air to funnel in from the north for Thursday.

2) Low pressure moving south toward New England late Friday and Friday night will drag a cold front across the area with a reinforcing shot of cooler air Saturday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High clouds are clearing from west to east early this afternoon. With nearly full sunshine expected across Central NY and the northern tier of NE PA, expect temperatures to reach the upper 70s to mid-80s areawide before the weak cold front arrives early this evening. Lowered PoPs as the latest CAMs are not showing any shower or t'storm activity across NE PA late this afternoon or early evening. Still cannot 100 percent rule out an isolaed pop up shower or storm, but it is definitely trending drier.

There could be some patchy valley fog developing in portions of CNY/NE PA late tonight, otherwise expect mostly clear conditions with light winds and lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

A shortwave disturbance is progged to drop south, out of Canada into the Finger Lakes region toward daybreak Thursday morning. The latest hi-res guidance is indicating a substantial increase in clouds with this feature, along with isolated showers or drizzle through much of Thursday morning west of Auburn--Ithaca--Elmira and Towanda. Exactly where this feature rotates through does remain somewhat uncertain. Where the clouds and isolated showers linger, it will keep temperatures down in the 50s through the morning hours Thursday. This shortwave then exits the area, with partly sunny skies areawide Thursday afternoon and evening. It will be much cooler, with highs only in the 60s (except low 70s Wyoming Valley), and a breezy NW wind at 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a slight recovery on Friday with high temperatures in the back into the 70s, the next potent upper low drops south late Friday into Friday night and passes by just to our east across New England. The surface front with this feature can bring a few spotty showers to the area later Friday afternoon into Friday night, but the bulk of the moisture looks to stay east. With the low off to our east Saturday, a strong northerly flow will inject a fresh round of cool, Canadian air over the region along with a pop up shower or two. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the upper 50s to the mid 60s. The Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA will fare a little better with temperatures reaching the upper 60s. It is expected to be a breezy day as well with NW wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph common. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s areawide, and as mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, some upper 30s can't be ruled out in the typical colder valley locations.

Sunday through Tuesday of next week we start to see some variations in the upper levels with regards to placement and strength of waves of energy and upper lows around the region. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance is in support of the cool north to northwest flow continuing with below average temperatures right through Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s each day. While there is no real good source of moisture over the area early next week, with low heights and the cool temperatures aloft, some isolated pop up showers can't be ruled out. The first shortwave is expected to move through the area Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers, and the next upper level low could swing through sometime Tuesday/Tuesday night with more showers possible (again, with some uncertainty in timing). The upper level pattern finally starts to shift away from the Omega block (with troughing over the Northeast) by the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected into tomorrow morning as a weak cold front pushes through the area this afternoon, with high pressure to our west controlling the weather pattern. There is a slight chance that a shower/thunderstorm develops near AVP this afternoon as the cold front moves through, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs given weak signals from guidance.

A period of clearing looks to happen tonight between 05z and 12z which could allow some patchy fog to develop. Northerly winds are forecast to remain active just above the surface, which should help keep the air mixed at the surface and fog from forming. ELM could see some brief MVFR visby if the winds can dissipate long enough during the clearing period, but confidence in this occurring is too low at this time to include restrictions in the TAF.

A weak system may bring some scattered showers to ELM and ITH tomorrow morning from the north, which would drop ceilings to MVFR for a few hours in the morning. Skies should scatter out by the early afternoon with VFR conditions returning.

Outlook: Thursday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR; potential for afternoon showers that could cause restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.