textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added a small chance for pop-up storms for the Finger Lakes and northern Central NY for this afternoon. Additionally, we increased wind gusts for the incoming system Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues today with temperatures around average. A few pop-up storms possible for the Finger Lakes and northern Central NY this afternoon.

2) An upper level trough will bring rounds of showers and storms tomorrow through the end of the week. The best chance for showers and storms will be on Thursday, along with breezy conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry weather continues today, and temperatures warm to around average. The main difference forecast-wise is the added potential for pop-up storms in the Finger Lakes and northern Central NY this afternoon. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Active weather returns as an upper level trough situated in Canada will be the driver of multiple shortwave disturbances that will pass through our area starting tomorrow. Every day from tomorrow and heading into the weekend will have some chances for rain showers and afternoon storms. The day to watch this week will be Thursday, as a more organized low develops and moves across the Great Lakes, providing a stronger forcing mechanism for strong storms to develop. As guidance begins to focus in on this system, a deepening center low tracks over the Great Lakes in the morning hours Thursday, which will push a frontal boundary through the area in the morning through the afternoon, which would bring rounds of showers and storms.

Besides rain and storms, we see quite an impressive pressure gradient pinch from the deepening low center that will help increase winds across the area in the morning and afternoon hours. This could result in wind gusts up to 40 mph, and could be even higher in areas with complex terrain. Winds decrease heading into Thursday night, and multiple shortwaves from the aforementioned upper level trough will continue to push into our area through the rest of the week, and heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions at most terminals through 06Z Wednesday. Valley fog has formed across northwestern PA as of 530z, and could spread into the central southern tier of NY before daybreak. There is a low chance for some tempo patches of MVFR fog/mist at ELM; mainly between about 08-11z early this morning. By this afternoon, some mid level cumulus clouds are expected to develop between about 050-070 ft agl across the area. There is a slight chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes to Lake Ontario plain. Confidence was not high enough to include in any TAF at this time.

Initial northwest winds become light and variable overnight under a mostly clear sky, then roughly 4-8 knots from the southwest later this morning and afternoon. Winds then turn east-southeast tonight, under 5 kts.

Outlook:

Late Tonight...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Showers with restrictions likely Wednesday night. Low level wind shear also likely Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night... Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms likely. Very breezy, southwest winds become westerly. Timing still uncertain with restrictions and wind shifts.

Friday through Saturday...Possible intermittent restrictions from scattered showers; breezy with westerly wind gusts each afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.