textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will give way to an arctic front that will sweep through the region Thursday with snow showers and squalls. Several weak clippers then look to track through the region late this week into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure building into the region today will result in clouds and slowly eroding and temperatures rebounding into the 30's. Tonight, with return flow ahead of an arctic cold front temperatures won;t fall much only into the 20's.

The arctic front then looks to move through the region on Thursday. We are still looking at a favorable environment for snow shower and snow squall formation throughout most of the day. Low level lapse rates are modeled to steepen coupled with about 50 J/KG CAPE. Momentum transfer on modeled soundings still looks favorable to get some 20-30 mph wind gusts to the surface. Temperatures do have the potential to drop slightly or stay steady so the flash freeze component of this may be present as well. Snow looks to be of a fluffier variety given the environmental setup with ratios near 20:1. As a result, some locations could see up to an inch of snow from any snow squall. The highest coverage still looks to be in CNY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Winds switch to west-northwest for a short time Thursday evening which has the potential to get a period of lake enhanced snow showers Thursday evening downwind of Lake Ontario. Even with the traditional higher ratios QPF looks only sufficient enough for top totals near 3 inches in the typically favored locations with much less elsewhere. If clearing can occur late Thursday night, lows early Friday morning would fall into the single digits.

High pressure looks to build over the region Friday as a weak area of low pressure slides to the south. A few ensemble members bring a touch of moisture with it to our area Friday night but staying with consensus to keep the forecast dry. Friday will be cold as well with highs in the 20's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The previously mentioned weak low slides to our south. A split- flow pattern looks to continue with a few low pressure systems sliding to our south while the northwest flow brings a few weak clipper systems through the region. Timing of these clipper systems is highly variable with model and ensemble solutions. Snow showers will be possible again at some point but exact timing is uncertain. Still a wintry pattern with temperatures in the 20's and 30's for highs. Monday looks like the coldest day of the period.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Snow has mostly exited the area to the east. Lake effect snow showers will be possible into the overnight hours as we get cold air flowing in from the NW. Light snow continues at ITH with IFR ceilings that should stick around past midnight. Ceilings should lift after 1am but they may stick around longer as the cloud deck is hovering around FL010 into the early morning hours. SYR should see a return of IFR ceilings after 02z, lasting into the early morning hours. Confidence here is moderate that IFR will return. The big factor will be if we can get more of a westerly component in the wind direction which will take away some of the downsloping off the Tug Hill Plateau and bring more Lake Ontario moisture into the terminal which would allow ceilings to drop a couple hundred feet into IFR conditions which would last into the early morning hours. BGM is expected to have IFR ceilings into the mid-morning hours.

RME/ELM/AVP ceilings should remain Fuel Alt/MVFR through the night into the morning hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...MVFR/Fuel alt ceilings move into the northern portion of the area as a front approaches.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as a frontal system approaches the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.