textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased wind gusts some this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Trending slightly warmer with the system later this week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Several rounds of lake effect showers with northwest flow.

2) Watching the potential for a stronger low or noreaster to potentially form late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Several mid-level disturbances within a northwest flow pattern will continue to bring unsettled weather into the region through Tuesday. Enough lift and moisture looks present off of the eastern most great lake to produce scattered light showers at times. Temperatures still generally to be expected in the 40's and 50's. Some areas across NEPA into the Southern Tier of NY may reach 60 Tuesday if some more pronounced clearing occurs. Weak high pressure overhead should allow for one somewhat decent day Wednesday.

Increased wind gusts Monday and Tuesday afternoons based on model soundings. Would not be surprised to see dewpoints trend slightly lower with more mixing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Still a decent range in spread with regards to a clipper tracking through the Ohio Valley and then forming a miller-B low along the coast Thursday and Friday. The operational GFS continues to be on the far northern end of the spread with the 00Z 11/9 ECMWF far enough south to put us on the gradient with steady precipitation. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the primary low should still allow for some rain to develop over the region Thursday.

Trends as mentioned previously are slightly warmer, so any mix or changeover may not occur till daybreak Friday and favor higher elevations. With the very warm ground accumulations of snow would be hard to come by in the daylight hours Friday even as some rain and snow continues. The precipitation should become more lake effect showery on Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected overnight at most terminals as lake effect rain showers and lower ceilings envelope Central NY and into parts of NE PA. These restrictions are expected mainly at NY terminals through the 06z TAF period. AVP is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period, but some lower ceilings may try to approach during the mid to late morning hours.

Winds turn more northwesterly heading into the late morning and early afternoon, and remains gusty heading into the evening hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for showers at RME.

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.