textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track and no changes were made to the ongoing headlines.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Arctic airmass with dangerously cold wind chills. Also, lake effect snow showers are expected across parts of Central NY into Sunday.

2) A reprieve from the cold pattern is looking more likely by the middle of next week, with temperatures getting closer to normal for this time of the year.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Arctic airmass has settled over the region with many observations seeing temperatures already below zero this afternoon. Winds have gusted as high as 50 to 55 mph and the cold and wind combined has produced dangerous wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero. Extreme Cold Warnings remain in effect for all of Central NY and Northeast PA until 1PM Sunday.

Also, another issue is that the strong winds are causing significant blowing and drifting snow, further complicating snow removal efforts.

Finally, the very cold airmass (850mb temperatures around -28C) combined with the gusty northwest flow, will result in lake effect snow showers through tonight and into Sunday. Snow will be relatively light most of the time with an additional 1-2 inches of snow possible for portions of the Finger Lakes Region. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7AM Sunday. While snow amounts will be rather light, as mentioned above, the gusty winds will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow for those areas as well, reducing visibility and causing hazardous road conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Relief from the Arctic temperatures will arrive by Monday afternoon and especially on Tuesday. The Binghamton Airport has seen 15 days in a row with temperatures below 32 degrees and Tuesday will have a chance to finally climb above freezing. The ridge that is building in is somewhat flat, so although it will bring much milder temperatures than this past week, it will still only be in the low 30s for most of the area.

A clipper system will track across southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This system will drag a weak cold front through the region and bring some potential snow showers across Central NY. Behind the front, northwest flow and cooler temperatures with some lake effect snow showers will be possible Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Narrow bands of lake effect snow continue over or INVOF ITH, BGM and SYR. Winds look to veer slightly more northerly overnight and Sunday morning, along with some directional wind shear in between the surface and 850mb (~4500 ft agl) layer. This should act to keep the ongoing lake effect snow bands a bit weaker, and shift them west compared to their current position. NW surface winds will remain gusty, at times up to 20-30 kts, which will keep patchy blowing snow and some MVFR visibilities around. Occasional IFR VSBYs are possible at ITH & BGM overnight into early Sunday morning, but uncertainty remains in exact lake effect snow band positions. If winds veer northerly ELM could even see some lake effect snow off of Seneca lake; confidence in this remains low, so did not vsby restrictions in the taf here, but MVFR Fuel alt CIGs are in the forecast late tonight into Sunday AM.

RME is expected to remain VFR through the taf period. SYR should be mainly VFR late tonight and through much of Sunday. AVP will also be VFR much of the time, except a few hours of MVFR CIGs possible later this evening.

NW winds are 8-15 kts, with gusts 15 to 25 kts on Sunday. Lower winds north up toward RME, with the higher end at AVP/BGM.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Lingering MVFR CIGs, and a low chance for IFR CIGs at a few taf sites (ITH/BGM). A few snow flurries or showers still possible with associated vsby restrictions.

Monday...Lingering CIGs restrictions in the morning, lifting north and scattering out later in the day. Becoming VFR for most taf sites.

Monday Night - Tuesday morning...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday Afternoon through Thursday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ016>018- 025-044.