textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted coverage through Tuesday for lake effect snow showers expected along and north of the Mohawk Valley. Also adjusted QPF for snowfall amounts across said region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers along and north of the Mohawk Valley into Tuesday.

2)A pattern change on Wednesday with deep trough moving into the eastern US will bring a chance for snow and colder temperatures for the end of the week.

3) Another potential snow event and cold blast this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

light lake effect snow showers will be the main weather maker for the beginning of the week.

NW flow from the departing trough will continue light lake effect snow showers across Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, Otsego and Oneida counties into the early morning hours. Winds will shift as the morning progresses to more WSW as a ridge from the southern US builds north and a weak trough moves north of the Great Lakes. The trough will have some moisture with it that will be enhanced by the lakes, kicking off snow showers along and north of the Mohawk Valley this morning into Tuesday night. -9C 850mb temps helping to drive these snow showers will move east of the area late this evening, and combined with winds shifting to the south as the night progresses will end the showers before daybreak. QPF with these showers looks to be light and no winter headlines are needed. The showers will be mainly focused north of our CWA, but wobbles in the SSW flow will allow some showers to make it into Onondaga and Madison counties. Less than an inch of accumulation is expected here. Further north into Oneida county will see 1-4 inches, with the chances for the higher end of the range right along the border with Lewis county.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Quite the interesting set up is being modeled starting Wednesday as a deep trough digs from the Great Lakes into the deep south. This trough will push a cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee river valley areas. A cutoff low will develop over Ohio and generate a mid level and surface low along the front. Yesterday it was farther south in the VA area, but the latest runs put it over PA. This low is progged to slide ENE as the cold front pushes to the SE. The upper trough driving all of this still looks to be positively tilted and the phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet stream does not occur until the trough is east of our area. This develops a surface low offshore that does not impact our area. We will have to watch the development of the midlevel and surface low along the front near our area. We should be in the warm sector on Wed with mostly rain, changing to snow on Thursday as the low moves NE of us and pushes a cold front through. Ensemble guidance has quite the spread on possible outcomes, ranging from almost nothing to a major snow storm. If the upper trough can till negative faster and the jet stream can phase quicker, the low that develops over PA and moves into our area could be stronger and tap into some colder air quicker, giving us a better chance for snow. Ensemble guidance over the past several days has not really shown a strong signal for a big snow storm, but with the development of the low along the front near our area, it will be interesting to see how it evolves over the next few model cycles.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Right on the heels of the system at the end of the week, a strong clipper system will dive into the area for the weekend. The strength and speed of the system is still uncertain with major models developing it differently. They all bring much colder air to the region for the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week, with temp anomalies -10 to -15 from normal.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Conditions will be VFR for most of the terminals this TAF period. Some light lake effect snow showers will impact RME and SYR off-and-on which will also result in MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions at times. Snow showers will come to an end after 06z though low ceilings will likely linger until at least 12z Tuesday.

Winds have become lighter but will be gusty once again today. Gusts will peak around 20 kts this afternoon before winds become calm tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR; ceiling restrictions late Tuesday night as next system approaches region.

Wednesday....Restrictions possible with rain showers, changing to snow overnight.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with snow showers around the area.

Friday....A few lingering snow showers possible (low chance), otherwise VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.