textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances adjusted for lake effect rain showers over north central NY on Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front brings scattered showers and gusty winds today, followed by clearing skies and colder temperatures tonight with patchy frost and localized freezing temperatures possible.

2) High pressure brings a cool and mostly sunny Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend and mainly dry conditions through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front pushes through this morning as a low pressure system slides across Ontario, bringing scattered showers from west to east across central NY. Cold air filtering in behind the front will allow lake effect showers to develop across portions of Onondaga, Madison, and southern Oneida counties. These showers should linger into the late morning or early afternoon before high pressure building in from the west brings an end to precipitation. With cooler air in place, highs will only reach the mid to upper 50s across central NY and the upper 50s to low 60s in northeast PA. It will also be windy today, with gusts up to 30-35 mph.

Cooler temperatures will become more noticeable tonight as high pressure builds in and skies clear, with lows falling into the mid 30s to low 40s across much of the area. Portions of northern Oneida county could fall below freezing, with patchy frost possible elsewhere, especially where winds become calm. Model guidance continues to bring the center of the high overhead later Tuesday morning, which could keep winds elevated a little longer and limit frost formation tonight. If the high shifts eastwards more quickly, frost could become more widespread, with some sheltered valleys potentially reaching freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure settles over the region Tuesday, brining mostly sunny skies and a chilly start to the day. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs generally in the 50s. Tuesday night could turn cold again, though temperatures will depend on how quickly the ridge axis and surface high shifts east. Lows could range from the low to mid 30s to the low 40s, with clear skies and relatively calm winds which could favor cooler conditions. Warmer air returns towards the end of the week, with highs climbing into the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 40s. A weak passing wave may bring scattered rain showers to northern portions of the CWA Thursday, though most locations should remain dry through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Winds will remain elevated through the afternoon before gradually tapering off tonight. Dry air behind the cold front as well as winds likely not completely dying off will prevent fog for most of the night. ELM may still go calm and fog around sunrise given how long the nights are now and still warmer river waters. Tomorrow is looking VFR at all terminals with some breezy winds out of the Northwest a few hours after sunrise.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, some potential for morning fog at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038-039- 043. NY...None.