textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure in place with an upper level ridge building in through Wednesday keeping the region dry and gradually warming into mid week.

2) The ridge begins to flatten in the eastern US with a slightly more active pattern late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong surface high is building in today out of the northwest leading to good radiational cooling tonight. Dew points have fallen into the mid to low 40s which will likely match the low temperatures tonight. Temperatures for the overnight hours were lowered below model guidance to match close to what the current dew points are reading. It is possible to get a few areas of patchy frost, mainly in Northern Oneida and in a few elevated valleys of Delaware and Otsego counties. Weak warm air advection begins tomorrow as a strong upper level ridge builds in with a gradual warm up expected through Wednesday bringing some late summer temperatures back to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models have the upper level ridge flattening out Thursday into the weekend with quick zonal flow setting up. Deterministic models have many weak 500 mb shortwaves passing through over the late week into the weekend so rain showers and thunderstorm chances increase. Given that there is no major shortwave and not a whole lot of moisture for these weaker waves to work with, overall rainfall amounts will likely not be a wash out or an all day rain but precipitation chances have been increased Thursday as well as this weekend. Thursday may have a small chance at some stronger storms as well as shear will be present and some of the modeled forecast soundings do have some surface instability. Right now instability is fairly low but will need to be monitored as we get closer in time.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through most of the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Tuesday). The one exception will likely be at KELM late tonight/early Tuesday morning with the usual morning valley fog likely resulting in IFR-or-worse visby restrictions. KRME may also briefly see some patchy fog, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF there at this time.

Gusty northwest winds (occasional gusts up to 20kts) this afternoon will quickly become light and variable tonight as high pressure settles in.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions, especially in the afternoon.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Scattered rain showers and associated occasional restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.