textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Extreme Cold Watch was issued for the entire region from late Friday night through early Sunday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow comes to an end this afternoon.

2) A clipper system will bring widespread light snow Friday. With that system, an arctic frontal boundary will bring bitterly cold conditions this weekend.

3) Temperatures begin to trend warmer next week with potential for closer to normal conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light lake effect snow will continue this morning with light accumulations possible along and north of the NYS Thruway. High pressure will bring drier air to the region this afternoon, cutting off any remaining lake effect snow showers. High pressure will stick around through tonight but slowly drifts eastward as the next system approaches the region. Temperatures will climb back into the upper teens to mid 20s today before falling into the single digits overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A clipper system will drop into the Great Lakes region Friday with a round of widespread light snow. Scattered snow showers will be possible during the day Friday before becoming more widespread overnight. This system is fairly quick to move through and exits the region Saturday. Moisture will be limited, so snowfall accumulations will be light, varying anywhere from a Trace to around 2 inches. Some areas in north-central NY could see localized higher amounts as lake effect snow develops behind this system with additional accumulations expected through Saturday night.

This system will drag an arctic front through the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Daytime temperatures will generally be in the single digits, possibly low teens for some on Sunday. Overnight, temperatures fall below zero. With ice cover on the Great Lakes, they may have little impact in moderating this air mass. Because of this, temperatures were lowered below guidance. One other uncertainty is if cloudy skies will help keep conditions slightly warmer than forecasted as seen in some nights earlier this week. Strong winds are also expected along the front and following its departure as the pressure gradient remains tight with high pressure building in. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts peaking around 40 mph, possibly higher in the peaks of the Poconos and Catskills.

With these cold temperatures and blustery winds, wind chills will be below zero for much of the weekend. Wind chills will drop to -15 to -25 though a few locations could see values down to -30. With this update, an Extreme Cold Watch was issued for late Friday night through early Sunday afternoon for the entire region. Upgrades to advisories and/or warnings will occur in future updates as confidence increases on how cold it will get.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There is uncertainty with the forecast early next week. A ridge will build over Central CONUS but guidance like the ECMWF have this ridge flattening out as it moves into the Northeast. While the cold air does retreat northward, the amplitude of this ridge will be the driver in how warm temperatures get next week. There is potential for near normal conditions but that is only if the ridge holds as shown in the GFS. High pressure will likely keep conditions dry early next week. There are some solutions showing precipitation midweek, so PoPs are maintained for that timeframe. Temperatures will also factor into ptypes with any systems that may move through as colder conditions will keep precipitation as snow while milder conditions would bring potential for a wintry mix.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A batch of lake induced MVFR to Fuel Alternate clouds continues to spread southeast of Lake Ontario this afternoon and is expected to persist through 22-00Z today. This will cause restrictions to RME, SYR and ITH through this time period until clouds lift and mix out after 00Z. VFR conditions are expected to persist through tonight and at least until 18Z. The next system starts to move in from the west around or just after 18Z with clouds thickening and ceilings beginning to lower. Winds remain light and variable through at least the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Friday night...Restrictions likely with snow showers, along with a low potential for snow squalls and/or blowing snow as winds really start to gust late Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday morning...Strong winds with occasional ceiling restrictions at all terminals except for KELM and KAVP.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046- 055>057-062.