textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold weather advisory issued for the Poconos and parts of the Catskills.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer conditions this week, but still below average.

2) West northwest flow brings lake effect snow showers Tuesday into midweek, followed by a clipper system late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Tonight will be the last night with any cold weather headlines until next weekend. Ridging builds in to start the work week tomorrow and this will help increase temperatures across the region. High temperatures on Monday will feel like a relief, even though it will only get into the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A short wave passes through the region Tuesday into Wednesday with returning west to northwest flow. This will kick off more lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario especially over central NY. This pattern holds through most of mid week keeping lake effect showers through Thursday as well. Attention then shifts to a clipper system that tracks north of our region Friday into Saturday. This has potential to bring widespread snow to the area. Confidence in how much and the exact track remains low at this time. This system could be an overachiever, simply because the snow to liquid ratios may be quite high, but these details will not be better know until later this week.

Behind this system, models are in good agreement that another arctic air mass pushes in on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures falling to 22C to 25C below zero. At this time, it appears that these Arctic temperatures next weekend could be short-lived, as models are hinting at a nice warm ridge building the start of next week. We can only hope that this is the case, but nonetheless, we will all have to at least face another 2 to 3 nights of below zero readings through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Skies have cleared for many locations early this morning, with VFR conditions for all of our NY TAF sites currently. A band of lingering MVFR clouds extends from east of BGM down south to AVP, with AVP expected to remain MVFR until about 08z early this morning. Indications are that another band of MVFR/IFR clouds will develop over Central NY toward daybreak (10-12z) and this could also have some freezing fog, mist and/or snow flurries associated with it...especially at SYR and RME. RME remains MVFR through about 17-18z today, while SYR could stay MVFR fuel alt until later this afternoon (22z). Tempo for possible IFR vsby restrictions was added for these two sites between 11-14z this morning. Confidence overall is low to moderate on exactly where this rather narrow band of MVFR/borderline IFR clouds will develop and move through the day.

ITH and BGM should see the clouds fill back in with 010-020ft CIGs between about 12-18z today at these two sites, before becoming VFR in the afternoon and evening. ELM is expected to remain VFR for the entire taf period based on the latest data. AVP should become VFR before sunrise and remain VFR for the rest of the taf period.

There is some sporadic LLWS at AVP and possible at ELM over the next several hours, with winds at 2k ft agl out of the NW at 35 kts...the LLWS lasts longest at AVP, until around 12z this morning.

Surface winds will be NW at 5-15 kts today, becoming light and variable under 5 kts after sunset into tonight.

Outlook...

Late Tonight Through Tuesday: Stratus clouds redevelop and expand, with widespread MVFR CIGs likely areawide.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning: Lingering MVFR stratus clouds around the region. A few snow showers possible across Central NY.

Wednesday Afternoon: Period of VFR possible at ELM, BGM and AVP...better chance for BKN MVFR CIGs to remain at ITH, SYR and RME in the cold NW flow.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to occasional lake effect snow showers at SYR and RME.

Friday...Restrictions likely with a system bringing periods of snow, transitioning to snow showers and blowing snow Friday night. Squalls possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040- 044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ057- 062.