textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered PoPs and QPF Monday night through Tuesday with system being more south than previously forecast. Best chance for rain with this system will be across the Poconos Region, but a further southward shift may completely keep rainfall our of our area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wave of low pressure will move slowly east along a remnant frontal boundary tonight into Tuesday, Possibly bringing rain to Northeast PA.

2) High pressure nudges in from the north, bringing dry, partly sunny and seasonably cool weather mid week.

3) Watching a potential coastal low for the end of the work week into next weekend that looks to meander along the southern New England shore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Still quite a bit of low level moisture around this morning with low stratus and fog. Eventually, heating and drier air aloft will mix out the moisture and by early afternoon. However, still likely to see mostly cloudy conditions this afternoon with widespread cirrostratus over the area with some filtered sunshine. Temperatures will be seasonable in the 60s for highs. Northerly winds are slightly breezy between 6-15 mph through the day.

0Z model guidance has significantly cut back PoPs and QPF tonight through Tuesday. A wave of low pressure is forecast to track a bit further south and there will be a tight rainfall gradient between central PA and NE PA. Best chance for rain in our CWA will be Luzerne County, but any further shift southward, as some 0Z guidance is showing, will pull rainfall completely out of our area.

High pressure to the north will be bringing in a very dry air mass. This high pressure system should keep the bulk of our CWA dry and even if rain does make it into NE PA, it will likely clear out by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will vary considerably, with cool overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday night across portions Oneida County and southward into Delaware County, but in most locations, the lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week. This will bring dry conditions with cool overnight temperatures into the upper 30s to low 40s. Can't completely rule out frost for some of the coldest spots, and this will be something to double check on as we get closer.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Forecast for the end of the week and through the weekend is becoming a little more clear . A shortwave dives south out of Quebec into New England. At the same time a closed upper level low drifts east across the Ohio Valley and off the Mid- Atlantic coast. By Friday morning, phasing of these feature could occur and produce a strong Nor'easter off the Delmarva region. There still remains some uncertainty on where this low could ultimately develop and track, but 0Z guidance is in much better agreement than past model runs. For our region, at this time it appears there could be potential for wrap around rain to push back to the west into some of our eastern forecast zones Friday into Saturday. Although some uncertainty remains on the overall details of the positions and track of the low, the models are in good agreement that a strong low pressure will be somewhere just off the coast. The evolution of this coastal low will certainly need to be tracked closely over the coming week, as further westward shift in the track could bring more impacts to our region.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Restrictions will lift later this morning as high pressure builds into the region. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period after mid to late morning. However, there is a chance for a few rain showers to push into AVP by early Tuesday morning, possibly bring MVFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Possible restrictions with showers at AVP and perhaps the NY Southern Tier terminals.

Wednesday and Thursday...Likely VFR most of the time.

Thursday night...High pressure may allow for patchy fog and IFR restrictions.

Friday...VFR conditions expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.