textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with the afternoon forecast package. Forecast rainfall totals for Saturday have increased slightly, but flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers are expected to move into the area on Saturday, perhaps mixing with some wet snow at the highest elevations of the Poconos and Catskills Saturday night.

2) Dry and mild weather is expected on Monday, then several systems will move through next week with additional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure will track into the region on Saturday, which will bring rain to the area along with cool temperatures (highs only in the lower 40s to lower 50s). Some of the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos may mix with wet snow Saturday night, but little to no accumulation is expected. The rain showers will persist into Saturday evening, before gradually tapering off from west to east late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This will result in mainly dry conditions for the second half of the weekend with high temperatures rebounding into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Rainfall totals on Saturday through Saturday night will range between 1.00"-1.25" for Northeast PA to as far north as the Finger Lakes Region, with lower amounts (mostly 0.50" or less) along and north of the NY Thruway Corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Monday still looks like a pleasant day across the region with high pressure in control. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the 60s. The next low pressure system has continued to trend slightly slower, with an increasing chance of another round of rain showers starting late in the day Tuesday or even Tuesday night. Unsettled weather will likely continue Wednesday and perhaps through the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will persist this evening into the first part of the overnight hours at all terminals with variable winds that become more east to east-southeasterly. Rain is expected to begin to move in from the west around 09-10Z and spread eastward throughout the morning hours. While high res. short term guidance continues to show some isolated to scattered pop- up showers starting around or shortly after 06Z, restrictions are not expected until the more widespread, steadier rainfall moves into most terminals between 10Z-14Z. MVFR to locally IFR visibilities are expected first before ceilings gradually fall from late morning into the afternoon. Confidence is highest in IFR cigs at ITH, ELM and BGM. SYR and RME will be at the edge of any ceiling restrictions but cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening.

Winds are expected to increase mid morning into the afternoon with some east to southeasterly gusts of 15 to 20 kts.

Outlook:

Saturday night...Rain showers and associated restrictions are expected to continue as a low pressure system passes through. IFR or lower likely at ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP at times.

Sunday Morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions, mainly in the afternoon and at night.

Wednesday...Additional scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.