textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast high temperatures for today and Thursday were lowered even further due to the thick smoke limiting solar heating.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Smoke is expected the next couple of days from active wildfires in south central Canada. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon across parts of the Wyoming Valley and Poconos in Northeast PA.

2) Cooler and more unsettled weather will move into the area for the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As expected, smoke from wildfires across Southern Canada into northern Minnesota has moved into the area, especially across Central NY. This has significantly limited solar heating and in fact, temperatures have fallen a few degrees over the course of the afternoon during a time that they would normally be rising. That being said, there is a very small corridor of lighter smoke concentration across the Wyoming Valley in PA and this has allowed enough instability for some thunderstorms to form. These are pulse thunderstorms, but do have the potentially to quickly become severe before also quickly falling apart.

Thursday will be another day where thick smoke will likely significantly limit temperatures. Therefore went several degrees below the NBM for the forecast, which resulted in forecast highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. It is certainly possible that the high temperatures could be several degrees lower than this if smoke concentrations remain thick enough.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A trough digs into the Northeast late Friday into the weekend with a broad surface low moving through. This will likely bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. 0-6 km shear is between 30 and 40 knots so a few storms in the afternoon after day time heating may become severe. We remain on the eastern edge of the large ridge in the Western US so remain in a favorable severe pattern into early next week as well.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Visible satellite imagery shows a large swath of wildfire smoke stretching from western Ontario across the northern Great Lakes and into CNY and the Twin Tiers. This plume of smoke and haze is continuing to drift south with a mix of predominately VFR and MVFR visby that is expected to continue into tomorrow. Where the smoke is most dense, IFR restrictions are possible on occasion. There is some uncertainty how thick the smoke will be later this evening/overnight (especially between 22Z-06Z) as the HRRR smoke model shows the surface smoke becoming slightly less dense before becoming thicker once again. The surface smoke does look to be even more dense tomorrow, especially by late morning and into the afternoon which can result in IFR visby. ELM, ITH and SYR have the best chance of IFR restrictions prior to 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through Friday...Visibility restrictions likely at times due to wildfire smoke from Canada. MVFR seems to be the most confident forecast at this time, but local IFR cannot be ruled out Thursday afternoon and evening. Wildfire smoke density is still uncertain for Friday at this time.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.