textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gusty wind wording was added to the forecast for areas of central New York this afternoon and evening. Added mention of patchy frost in spots Friday morning where the growing season has started.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Windy and warm today, Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across central New York this afternoon and evening.

2) A slow moving frontal boundary pushes through mid-week with additional rounds of showers.

3)Another broad trough remains in place for the weekend and early next week bringing more cool and showery weather to the area. Conditional threat for frost Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm southwesterly flow will continue ahead of a cold front today across the region. Modeled boundary layer temperatures still indicate many locations could get into the 70's for highs today. Inverted V soundings do show the potential for some wind gusts over 30 mph reaching the surface as well today.

Enough lift and moisture looks present to develop some scattered showers and thunderstorms across CNY this afternoon. Steep low level lapse rates and around 500-1,000 J/KG CAPE should provide some instability. The amount of modeled shear while not a lot may be sufficient enough to organize some thunderstorms into clusters with the potential for gusty to locally damaging winds. The thunderstorm potential should quickly drop off tonight with the loss of daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The front slowly progresses through the area Wednesday but has trended more progressive Thursday. Continue to see indications of fairly widespread showers Wednesday with a potentially sharp temperature difference across the region from the 40's to 60's. Most of the shower activity does look to exit most of the region by Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Cooler air will filter into the region behind the front. If sufficient clearing occurs Friday morning some frost is possible. Modeled 850 mb temperatures do fall below 0C with winds becoming light for a time.

A broad trough of low pressure looks to bring several mid- level disturbances later Friday into early next week resulting in cooler and showery conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Conditions will be be VFR throughout most of today, but showers and thunderstorms push into the region this afternoon and evening with associated restrictions. Winds will increase after sunrise and become more southerly. Peak gusts of near 30 kts will be possible at most terminals. After the storms move out tonight, there is potential for low ceilings and fog.

Outlook:

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain showers.

Friday through Saturday...Chances for showers and restrictions.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will reach well into the 70s this afternoon over the area. Skies should remain partly to mostly sunny over the Catskills region through much of the day. This will allow RH values to fall between 30-40% in the afternoon and early evening hours. Southwest winds will be sustained between 10-20 mph, with gusts of 25-35 mph (locally 40 mph on exposed ridgetops). Considering all of these parameters decided to issue a fire weather special weather statement for Delaware and Sullivan Counties. Further to the west, across the rest of the Leatherstocking region the min RH looks to hold between 40-50% in the early afternoon, so decided to not hoist any Special Weather Statements here at this time.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ208.