textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

After a dry start to the day today, rain showers will move into the area this afternoon and evening, especially across Central New York. Aside from some lingering lake effect rain showers, Tuesday will bring a brief return to dry weather.

Another system will bring rain to the area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, before drier and cooler weather returns on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Currently a band of gusty showers and thunder continues to move southeast through CNY late this evening. Would not be surprised for this to maintain itself for a few more hours into the overnight given marginally steep lapse rates and a localized area of strong 0-6KM bulk shear. Adjusted some of the forecast elements to account of this. We have gotten reports of some wind gusts in the 30-50 mph range so will maintain SPS's for the time being. Some small hail/graupel has been observed.

The flow will shift to northwesterly and 850mb temperatures will fall to around -3C tonight behind the cold front. This will result in some additional lake enhanced rain showers across parts of Central NY, perhaps mixing with some snow at the higher elevations or northern Oneida County. It will remain breezy tonight with occasional gusts of 25-35 mph. Lows are expected to be in the lower 30s to near 40.

The northwest flow regime will continue on Tuesday, which will result in some lingering lake effect rain showers, especially along the NY Thruway corridor. Otherwise, the rest of the area is expected to be dry under partly to mostly sunny skies. With the tight pressure gradient continuing, it will remain breezy with occasional gusts of 25-35 mph possible at times. Highs are expected to be in the 50s.

High pressure will be in control Tuesday night, which will result in dry conditions and lighter winds. Lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A very similar system to today will move through the area on Wednesday, including similar timing. After a dry start to the day, the chance for showers will increase during the afternoon, especially across Central NY. Then the alternating wet/dry day pattern will continue, with high pressure bringing a return to dry weather on Thursday, except for perhaps a few lingering lake effect showers. After highs in the lower 50s to near 60 on Wednesday, cooler temperatures will arrive on Thursday with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A fast moving weather pattern will prevail for late week. Some rounds of showers and windy conditions.

Earlier discussion below.

The long term pattern continues to look rather active with a parade of systems moving through embedded with a deep longwave trough. At this time, it appears one system will move through on Friday, a brief break Saturday (aside from some lingering lake effect showers), then an even stronger system moves through Sunday into the beginning of next week. This is all highly subject to change as the upper level pattern will be very chaotic during this time.

This pattern will also usher in a much colder airmass by the beginning of next week, which means that it isn't entirely out of the realm of possibilities to see some snow, at least during the overnight periods.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

With cool dry air moving in tonight, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals. RME may see some lake effect rain showers early this morning that could cause brief MVFR vis or cigs but confidence is low so it was omitted. Winds will slowly decrease through the day becoming light after sunset at most terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night...Rain showers becoming likely and associated restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Thursday...Some lingering restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals; otherwise becoming mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Some rain showers and associated restrictions are possible late in the day and at night.

Saturday...Showers tapering off with improving conditions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.