textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cancelling Flood Watch early. Otherwise, minor adjustments to previous forecast through Saturday for frontal positioning and chances of more showers along the SW flank of our forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Timing and placement of frontal boundary to our south along with minor impulses still passing through flow aloft today and Friday.

2) Quiet weather with lower humidity and seasonal temperatures through the Labor Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue to dissipate and move south behind a departing upper wave this morning. High pressure and slightly drier air will attempt to work in from the northeast this afternoon partially clearing out much of the region although heating and abundant ground based moisture will allow for destructive cumulus. Another impulse in the persistent northwesterly flow is likely to trigger additional showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight mainly along the western Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania. Severe parameters set up best to the southwest of the CWA but can't completely rule strong storms out with a SPC Marginal clipping our area.

Friday should turn out the quietest day of this week however model guidance still suggests another upper wave skirting the area over WNY and north central PA during the afternoon and evening. Will therefore still have to carry some chance of showers and thunderstorms again along the Southern Tier and portions of NEPA mainly west of I-81. Best instability and shear look to be south of the region tomorrow so severe storms are not expected.

Temperatures will be a little tricky again today with morning clouds holding on, but then any sun breaking free this afternoon should cause quick rebounds. I'll stick with the blended NBM for now with upper 70s-lower 80s expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A closed upper low will drop south into the Maritimes this weekend with a broad area of surface high pressure building down from Canada. This pattern will be favorable for drier conditions and near seasonal temperatures in the 70s during the day and 50s/low 60s at night. This quiet weather should last through Monday with a slow rebound of warmer, more humid conditions during the middle of next week as high pressure settles over the southeastern States and re-establishes southerly flow into the region. Next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during this midweek time frame given the increasing instability interacting with passing upper waves.

Saturday through Monday

Low operational impact. No significant weather.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.