textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated rain showers were kept in the forecast for this afternoon and evening along the higher terrain in Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level blocking pattern will be in control for most of the week. Conditions will be mild and mostly dry.

2) A change in the pattern midweek will lead to warmer conditions for the end of the week. A frontal system could bring a chance for showers this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Really no change to the forecast weather pattern through Wednesday. There will continue to be an Omega blocking pattern present over the country and the forecast will be fairly consistent for the next couple of days. While an upper trough remains overhead, surface high pressure should keep conditions mostly dry. Daytime heating may kick off an isolated shower this afternoon and evening, but with the surface high present, moisture is limited, so decided to only keep isolated shower chances across the higher terrain of Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan County. Anything that does develop will be light and very short-lived. Patchy fog will also be possible again tonight, mainly within the upper Delaware and Susquehanna River Valleys.

Key Message 2...

The Omega block will begin to lose its shape midweek Wednesday into Thursday, as the ridge in the Central US drifts eastward and the trough over the eastern US fills as it moves out into the Atlantic. Surface high pressure will center itself over the Southeast U.S. and send warm southwest return flow into our region. This will make for warm conditions through the end of the week. High temperatures should climb well into the 80s for most by Thursday and possibly a few spots nearing 90 on Friday. Conditions will remain mostly dry through the end of the week, however, there is potential that a frontal system will approach the region around the start of next weekend. At this time, there remains a lot of uncertainty on the speed and positioning of this front, but this could make for a potentially very wet and stormy weekend, especially with the moist airmass that will already be in place out ahead of this system.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period. The exception may be at ELM, where patchy fog could develop overnight under clear skies, light winds, and lingering low level moisture. Northwest winds increase tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots.

Outlook:

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

Saturday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and storms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.