textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change to going forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A generally dry Fall-like pattern will persist for the remainder of Labor Day Weekend.

2) Warming is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of a frontal system projected to pass through with showers and perhaps embedded thunder late Wednesday or early Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cool and dry northerly flow will continue for our region, due to circulation around a stacked low pressure that is slow to progress out of the Canadian Maritime provinces. With the chilly air aloft and small embedded shortwaves pinwheeling around the low, minor instability during diurnal heating actually managed to generate isolated showers Saturday. Further drying of the atmosphere continues to occur, so any isolated showers today will probably be confined towards Catskills-Poconos if any at all. Sun will be mixed with a scattered cumulus field again as diurnal heating occurs today.

Temperatures in this Fall-ish pattern will be just a tad shy of climatology today and Labor Day, with highs of upper 60s-mid 70s and crisp mostly clear nights leading to lows of mid 40s-lower 50s as high pressure drifts over the region. Currently we still have some wind in the boundary layer and scattered clouds, so fog will tend to be very patchy. However, the next two nights will be clearer and with more decoupled to calm winds, promoting better and more typical valley fog formation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Slight upper ridging begins Tuesday to start nudging temperatures up, and then reaching us fully Wednesday with highs of mid 70s-lower 80s as warm air advection occurs ahead of an approaching front. The associated low pressure system forms in the lee of the northern Rockies but moves north of the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the eventual cold front is projected to trail pretty distantly from its parent low in Canada. Models have been trending a bit weaker with this front. Though the pattern suggests a fair amount of flow aloft and thus at least modest shear, ensemble data is now depicting very scant chances (less than 10 percent) of Convective Available Potential Energy of even reaching 400 J/Kg. There is a good chance of rain late Wednesday into Wednesday night, but it may be via forced ascent from a strong jet to the north of the surface front, and thus more of a stable ana-front rainfall. We will continue to monitor but potential for stronger convection seems to be diminishing. There is uncertainty in the models for whether a secondary front late Thursday-early Friday could generate a few showers, but high confidence that high pressure in its wake will probably allow dry cool weather towards the end of the week into early next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tricky forecast tonight as clouds streaming off the lakes will impact fog formation and IFR restrictions tonight. Guidance has hitting ITH/ELM/BGM hard with IFR and lower restrictions earlier tonight, but was not handling the clouds moving off the lakes well. These clouds will limit cooling which should push the chances for IFR conditions back a few hours given. ITH and ELM are still expected to see IFR and lower restrictions tonight, with ITH bouncing in and out of IFR until around 08z, then prevailing IFR should set in as the clouds dissipate. ELM has an MVFR deck overhead that should stick around for a couple hours before dissipating. Once the clouds are gone, IFR and lower restrictions should fill in somewhat quickly, lasting into the mid morning hours. BGM and RME may see some fog after sunrise, but with winds remaining active, MVFR restrictions are expected. SYR and AVP should remain VFR.

All terminals will become VFR by the mid-morning hours with these conditions lasting through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.