textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) It will be seasonably warm today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Comfortable conditions settle in tonight into Sunday with low humidity.

2) A large upper level ridge of high pressure brings hot and dry conditions to the area early to mid week. A front likely brings temperatures back down closer to normal by the end of the upcoming workweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak frontal boundary currently stretching from west to east near the Wyoming Valley, as evident by a moisture gradient seen on the latest SPC meso analysis, will continue to slowly push southward this morning. In its wake, PWATs are still estimated to be around 1.00-1.30 inches, so there is some moisture still lingering around which can aid in the development of a few areas of fog. Otherwise, most places are expected to be pretty quiet today with sunshine mixed with some clouds. A shortwave trough will be dropping down from the north this afternoon and evening as as this feature moves in, model guidance does show roughly about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon with the heating of the day. This can lead to some isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening with initiation of any shower or storm likely to be over the higher terrain of central NY, Catskills and NE PA and then drift south which the CAMs seem to be on board with. Despite the frontal boundary being to the south by this point, it's still close enough with its lingering moisture that NE PA and the southern Catskills look to have the best chance of seeing a shower or storm this afternoon and evening. Highs today range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

Much drier air will be filtering in from the north tonight into Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from Canada. High temperatures Sunday will be in the 80s, but it will be comfortably warm as dew points are expected to be mainly in the the 50s. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights are expected to be in the 50s and low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A building heat dome over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes starts to expand and shift east late Monday into Tuesday with 500mb heights rising to around 594dm Tuesday. Skies will be sunny under the upper level ridge and dew points look to mix out into the low and mid 60s for the afternoon. This should allow daytime highs to surge up into the upper 80s to mid 90s. This will be close to daily record highs, and be about 10-15 degrees above average for mid-July. The core of the truly extreme heat looks to remain just west of our area. A trough and NW flow develops by Wednesday across the Northeast and persists into late week. This will bring high temperatures back down into the lower to mid 80s for most locations for late week. The weather looks to remain dry Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Conditions will be mainly VFR this TAF period. Scattered showers in Northeast PA this afternoon may pass over AVP and result in brief restrictions. There is also the possibility for fog at ELM and ITH, though confidence is low given there is not much guidance in favor of it despite clear skies and light winds. If fog does develop, conditions will likely bounce around like this morning and may even drop to IFR or lower at times. Winds this afternoon will be breezy with sustain speeds near 10 kts at times. There have been some gusts also observed. Overnight, winds become calm.

Outlook:

Sunday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; Patchy, morning fog possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.