textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted dewpoints and winds through Wednesday as guidance is not handling them well. Minimal changes to the rest of the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool and mostly sunny for the rest of the day. Another cold night expected, with a risk for frost east of I-81.

2) Fairly quiet weather through the weekend. A weak trough brings scattered rain chances Wednesday into Thursday across northern portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure moving into the area from the west has brought sunny skies and NW winds that are continuing to push cool, dry air into the region from Canada. These winds are mixing dry air to the surface, with dewpoints currently in the mid 20s to low 30s. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 50s today.

Another cold night is expected across the area tonight. The dry air and clear skies will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the mid to upper 30s by late evening. The ridge axis and associated surface high will push east of the area as the night progresses, allowing for southerly flow to return and increase winds in the lower atmosphere from west to east starting around 10pm. This should keep frost from forming mostly west of I-81. East of I-81, the high should have enough influence to generate areas of frost. With PA still in the growing season, a Frost Advisory has been issued for Susquehanna, Wayne and Pike counties from 11pm tonight to 9am. The Wyoming Valley looks to be too warm with several ensemble models showing a near 0% chance of temps falling far enough for frost to form. Higher elevations outside of the valley and to the NW into Bradford county could see patchy frost develop across sheltered areas. Warm weather returns for Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Mostly warm and pretty quite weather expected through the weekend. The only weathermaker will be a weak trough sliding across Ontario Wednesday into Thursday, bringing scattered light rain showers across northern portions of the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A cold front will move through Thursday night, dropping lows into the low 40s Thursday night and Friday night with Friday highs in the low to mid 60s. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s expected Wed, Thurs, Sat and Sun.

We are monitoring a tropical system developing in the Gulf of America. Some model guidance brings rain into the area sometime Monday. This is a complicated setup with a high over central Canada, a trough moving into the Pacific NW, and 2 tropical systems in the eastern Pacific moving into the SW US impacting the track and timing of anything coming out of the Gulf. With all of these factors, the forecast will have high uncertainty until later this week when hopefully models have resolved how some of these aforementioned features will develop.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Cool and dry conditions continue this afternoon through tonight. VFR conditions are expected at most terminals, though ELM has a small chance at seeing some fog develop towards sunrise. Winds will likely go calm tonight giving a brief window to ELM though with how dry it is currently, confidence was not there to go predominant IFR.

Tomorrow will be VFR at all terminals once again.

Outlook...Thursday, bringing a chance for rain showers, mainly across north central NY. A cold front associated with the aforementioned through will bring cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, though conditions should remain dry. High pressure then builds back into the region for the weekend, with temperatures rebounding into the mid 60s to low 70s by Sunday.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Cold front with a few showers but should stay mainly VFR.

Friday through Sunday...High pressure, mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ039-040-048-072. NY...None.