textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. The severe threat has ended from this event. A few heavier rain showers and rumbles of thunder will still be possible into the evening hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Smoke across the region today gets swept out of the area tonight.

2) There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes this afternoon and early evening across the entire forecast area.

3) Pleasant, dry and mostly sunny weather looks to return for Sunday and Monday across the area. Cool and refreshing overnight lows.

4) Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday as the next frontal system pushes east into Central NY and Northeast PA.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest runs of the HRRR model smoke guidance show high concentrations of near-surface smoke currently in place. Smoke appears as though it will linger well into the afternoon hours before a cold front sweeps through the region this evening into tonight. Disruption of the airmass due to showers and frontal passages should keep the smoke a little thinner than previous days. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for Central NY through this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The initial warm front has pushed through the area this morning and early afternoon with the first round of showers and elevated thunderstorms. Partial clearing will now take place into the afternoon hours, along with dew points surging into the lower or mid 70s and temperatures reaching the upper 70s and 80s for highs. This set up will allow surface base CAPE to rise between 1500-3000 J/kg over the region, with the highest values expected over the Central Southern Tier and Wyoming Valley region by mid to late afternoon. Effective layer shear will be pushing 40-55kts over the entire forecast area by late afternoon as well, creating a favorable environment for super cell development and potential bowing segments. A corridor of DCAPE values above 800 J/kg is also expected to develop just ahead of the incoming storms, so this will set the stage for potential damaging winds and microbursts as storms strengthen. 0-1 km bulk shear is also increase, upwards of 30 kts, and SRH values are up to 300 m2/s2 along the warm front. With low LCLs between 500-750m we cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two this afternoon, either out ahead of the line of storms or embedded within any line segments as they develop and move east- southeast. The timing looks to be mainly between 2PM to 8 PM for the area, starting up across the Finger Lakes, then pushing into the I-81 Twin Tiers by late afternoon and Northeast PA/Wyoming Valley mainly 4-8 PM. SPC has maintained the Enhanced, level 3 of 5, risk across our entire forecast area today.

The storms look to drop south and east, out of the area by 8-9 PM as the cold front passes through. After that, the flow turns north- northwest and a few upslope showers/clouds develop over Central NY overnight into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Lingering gust NW flow Sunday, between 10-20 mph may keep some stratus or strato-cu broken clouds around Sunday morning. As high pressure builds in from the west, it will become mostly sunny and pleasant Sunday afternoon. Humidity will be much lower, with dew points in the low to mid-50s and high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected. Sunday night a 1017mb surface high moves directly overhead. This will bring clear skies, light winds and allow temperatures to drop between 45-55F overnight. Widespread valley fog is likely to form over the region as well, especially near rivers and creeks. The HRRR keeps the smoke away from our area despite the NW flow on Sunday, and the light overall flow Monday. Therefore, Monday is looking sunny and nice with low humidity and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Will continue to monitor the latest guidance for any changes in the smoke aloft forecasts.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The next front and trough approaches the area later in the day on Tuesday, Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This will bring increasing moisture and instability in the southerly flow on Tuesday. Dew points will rise back around 70F and high temperatures are expected to reach into the lower 80s. This will all depend on the timing of the incoming front thought. SPC does have a portion of the forecast area in a 15% day 4 risk, so we will need to monitor the timing of this incoming system closely for potential organized convection. Showers and possible thunderstorms continue Tuesday night and even into Wednesday at the mid and upper level trough slowly pulls east. Conditions then look to dry out with seasonal temperatures for the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through NEPA and CNY through the evening hours. Kept a few TEMPO groups around for the scattered coverage. Some patchy smoke is still possible as well. Still fairly good confidence that a MVFR deck forms later this evening into the overnight for all CNY terminals. This deck should burn off by mid to late morning Sunday.

Outlook:

The rest of Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

Thursday... Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ062.