textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjustments were made to precipitation chances for this afternoon based on radar observations.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain shower will continue into the evening as a cold front pushes through the area. High pressure fills in behind the front, bringing cool and dry conditions to start the weekend.

2) A trough will move over the area Sunday, bringing a chance for a few scattered rain showers across Northeast Pennsylvania into the Catskills and north to Oneida county. Outside of this system, high pressure will be in control and bring dry and cooler condition through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The cold front has pushed through much of the area and is currently draped across the Wyoming Valley to the Catskills. This can be seen with temperatures of 80 degrees in Scranton while it is 61 degrees in Binghamton. Precipitation has been anafrontal and has become lighter as the afternoon has progressed. Showers will continue to push through NEPA and the Catskills into the evening hours, but accumulations will be light. With cold air moving in behind the front, some very light lake effect rain showers have developed across areas along and east of I-81 north of the Southern Tier. These showers and sprinkles will linger into the evening hours before high pressure building in from the west cuts them off. The surface high and associated mid-level ridge will move in from the Great Lakes tonight, keeping winds NWerly and reinforcing CAA. Temps will be 20-25 degrees cooler tonight vs. last night, with temps bottoming out in the low to mid 40s for most of the region, with upper 30s possible across N Oneida county.

High pressure will remain overhead Saturday into Sunday morning, with dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The ridge pushes east on Sunday as a broad troughing pattern works its way into the eastern US on Sunday into Sunday night. This pattern will have 2 pieces of energy; one over the northern Plains and Great Lakes and another one moving up the eastern seaboard. These two shortwaves in the overall longwave trough pattern are currently forecast to remain out of phase, which will limit precipitation development over the region and bring a low end chance for rain showers across eastern portions of the area Sunday afternoon and evening. These shortwaves are forecast to phase well east of us Sunday night into Monday, generating a surface low off the New England coast that will push into Canada. Guidance has been pretty consistent with the timing and track of the aforementioned shortwaves so confidence is becoming higher that we will not see widespread rain develop on Sunday.

A cold front is expected to move into the area Monday. Temps at 850mb near 0C combined with very warm Lake America water temps will kick off lake effect clouds across much of the area along with a chance for some isolated rain showers. Temperatures to start the week will be quite chilly for this time of year as the position of the ridge will reinforce CAA and push the coldest air of the season into the region. Average temps for the beginning of October range in the mid to upper 60s in our area. On Monday, we are expected to top out in the upper 50s for most, with low 60s in the valleys across the Southern Tier into NEPA and the Catskills. Tuesday will be even cooler, with highs in the low to mid 50s for most. Lows will be quite cold Monday night and Tuesday night, with lows in the low to mid 30s both nights(Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler). With some areas expected to see freezing temperatures, especially Tuesday night, take appropriate measures with what remains of your garden or any sensitive plants that may be outside.

By Wednesday the ridge axis will slide east of the area, bringing a return of SW flow. This will start a warming trend that will push temperatures back toward average by the end of the week. Conditions are forecast to remain dry through this period as well.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Cold front has pushed through the region and all sites will be returning to VFR this evening by 02Z.

Early tomorrow morning, winds could decrease just enough to allow for IFR fog at ELM for a few hours. All other sites should remain VFR.

Tomorrow has high pressure in place with VFR at all terminals.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Wendesday...Mainly VFR, though valley fog restrictions possible at KELM Saturday night-early Sunday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.