textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments made to both high and low temperatures over the next few days with highs lowered slightly from NBM due to a warm bias and lows taken down in places with a good radiational cooling set up the next couple of nights. Winds were increased on Tuesday with a strengthening low-level jet moving in.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Comfortably warm today with low humidity in place. A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out in Northeast PA, mainly toward the Poconos.

2) A large upper level ridge of high pressure will lead to increasingly hot and dry conditions for the area, with the peak of the heat occurring midweek.

3) An upper level trough moving over the Northeast likely brings temperatures back down closer to average by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure building in from the north will lead to a pretty quiet day overall with a mostly sunny sky. There is a plume of mid-level moisture that pushes into NE PA this afternoon and early evening that looks to be associated with a weak inverted trough that is off to our south and west. This moisture combined with the heating of the day may spark a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the higher terrain south of I-84. High temperatures are near to slightly above average today mainly in the low to mid 80s with a few valley locations making a run into the upper 80s. Dew points though are expected to be mostly in the 50s and low 60s, so it will be a comfortably warm day. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An expansive heat dome stretching from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Monday will start to shift east late Monday into Tuesday with 500mb heights rising to around 594dm Tuesday. Skies will be sunny under the upper level ridge and dew points look to mix out into the low and mid 60s for most both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, and the peak of the heat is expected by Tuesday afternoon as daytime highs to surge up into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures will be running about 10-15 degrees above average for mid-July, and may challenge some records (KBGM's record is 93 set in 1954 and KSYR's record is 95 set in 1952). The core of the truly extreme heat looks to remain just west of our area through midweek. One thing that may try to play a bit of a spoiler in our high temperatures early to mid week is the potential for some elevated Canadian wildfire smoke to stream down from the north around the ridge as there have been a number of new fires that have developed across northern Canada.

As the upper ridge expands east, we will also have to monitor for any potential waves of energy that could result in "ridge riders" as model guidance does not handle those storm complexes well. However, they do seem honing in on a potential shortwave Monday night into Tuesday toward New England, so this is something to monitor down the road.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A broad upper trough and northwest flow is expected to develop starting Wednesday across the Northeast and gradually expand south into late week. This will lead to the upper level ridge retreating back to the west. With Wednesday being a transitional day, a range in temperatures is expected across the area from the mid and upper 80s across CNY while NE PA remains in the upper 80s to mid 90s. High temperatures are expected to fall back down into the lower to mid 80s for most locations by late week. A weak frontal boundary may lead to a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm later Wednesday into Thursday, otherwise, largely dry conditions will be in place through Friday.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Some patchy low clouds and fog are close by to ITH and AVP early this morning, but any restrictions would be brief if it reaches the terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period. There is a slight chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm around AVP this afternoon, but confidence in timing or location of any pop up activity is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Outlook:

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; patchy morning low clouds/fog possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.