textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trends continue to point towards a farther west track for the retrograding coastal low, which will bring rain into the area this weekend, especially on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will remain in place through Friday with seasonably cool mornings.

2) A coastal low will move slowly east of the region this weekend, which will bring some rain to the area, especially on Sunday.

3) High pressure returns early next week with a gradual warm up into mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With high pressure in control, clear skies, and calm winds, tonight will be another cool night. Lows are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost will be possible in northern Oneida County and the usual colder spots, but coverage is not expected to be widespread enough for Frost Advisories.

Friday will be a similar day compared to today with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Some clouds may sneak in from an approaching coastal low for the Poconos-Catskills, but otherwise it will be another mostly sunny day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Trends continue for the above mentioned coastal low pressure system to track a bit farther to the west and even begin to retrograde into the area by Sunday. As a result, rain chances were significantly expanded westward with the afternoon forecast package. The heavier rain should remain east of the region, but some locally moderate rainfall will be possible on Sunday as the low retrogrades. Winds look to be breezy Saturday and Sunday with northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

As the coastal low begins to occlude and move out-to-sea Sunday night into Monday, a general drying trend will be present. That being said, cannot rule out a few lingering rain showers, especially Monday morning. High pressure then moves into the region Monday night through Wednesday. A shortwave may then bring some scattered showers on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Friday). The only exception is expected to be at KELM once again with morning fog likely resulting in LIFR visby restrictions once again. This will dissipate by the mid- morning on Friday, which will result in a return to VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Saturday morning...VFR conditions expected.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Rain and associated restrictions possible, especially on Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.