textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry weather continues for this week and weekend, with a few cold fronts crossing the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

No significant weather impacts are expected over the next week plus. The pattern will continue to be mainly dry with high pressure dominating for the bulk of the forecast period. Only exceptions will be this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday, as dry cold fronts push through the region. These fronts will bring an increase in wind gusts, however they will also bring an increase in relative humidity, which alleviates some of our fire weather concerns. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible starting this afternoon as the pressure gradient over the region tightens some. Minimum RH will range in the upper 40s to low 50s percent in the mid afternoon, before increasing in the late afternoon and evening as the stronger wind gusts arrive. Due to the increase in RH, we are not expecting to issue any fire related special weather statements, but will continue to monitor fire weather conditions closely.

For Tuesday, the winds will lighten up as high pressure moves back overhead. It will again be dry, with minimum relative humidity dipping into the 30s percent range, but cooler temperatures and the light winds should alleviate any fire weather concerns.

The cold front passing Thursday into Friday will have a small chance to produce some light showers or sprinkles across I90 corridor. However, most of the region will remain dry and if any rain does occur across the north, it will be very light.

High pressure will then return for this weekend. The next possible chance for rain will come either the end of the weekend or the beginning of next week. Models are in disagreement of the overall pattern next week, so there is no reason to stray from NBM for the long term forecast. At this time, the NBM is bringing low chances for rain starting Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR currently occurring across all of our terminals. A cold front will drop through the region this afternoon into the evening hours, pushing winds from W to NNW. This front is moisture starved, but some additional moisture from the Lakes may allow for a few periods of MVFR ceilings at RME/SYR/ITH. SYR and RME should lift to VFR by early evening, while NW flow into ITH from Cayuga lake could keep ceilings MVFR into the mid- evening hours. ELM/BGM/AVP currently are forecast to remain VFR through the period as the atmosphere dries out as you get away from the lakes.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM possible each morning. Low chance for showers at KSYR and KRME Thursday night with a cold front moving through.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.