textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front moving through this afternoon and evening will bring a line of gusty showers to NY and potently a few severe thunderstorms to Northeast PA.

2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will gradually warm up next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front is progressing its way through NY and PA this afternoon. Across NY, cloud cover and showers have kept temperatures cooler and not allowed for much heating. Clouds have cleared in the Wyoming valley in NEPA so there is starting to be some surface based CAPE to develop. A bowing storm in central PA is on line with moving into the Wyoming Valley between 4 and 5 pm. As of now, strong wind gusts look to be the main concern as the storms move through NEPA. Shear is strong, with mesoanalysis showing about 50 knots of bulk shear ahead of the line.

In NY, there is a thin line of showers along the front with some gusts of 30 to 35 mph so still will see some breezy conditions with its passage but nothing severe.

Tonight into tomorrow, strong cold air advection will drop temperatures into the 30s and 40s along with 20 to 30 mph winds gusts. Wind chills will be at or below freezing for much of the day so quite the difference from the recent weather we have been having. Temperatures Saturday night will result in the first widespread freeze as lows fall into the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An area of high pressure will remain present over the region throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system will develop along the East Coast and linger off the Carolinas and mid Atlantic for much of the week. The strong ridge in place will keep the low off shore with any precipitation remaining east of our region. Temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week, becoming more seasonable. Sunny skies may help push high temperatures back into the 70s in the valleys.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A cold front will be pushing through the region this afternoon through this evening. Rain showers, some heavy, will produce restrictions across Central NY sites and into the Southern tier for the first 2 to 4 hours of the forecast period. Further south in northeast PA, skies have clear and the added sunshine has produced more instability there. So AVP, will have potential to see thunderstorms later this afternoon into early this evening as the front pushes through.

After the front exits, still unsettled conditions expected overnight into Saturday with MVFR ceilings possible. Early morning snow showers will be possible at SYR, ITH and BGM, but confidence is too low to include at this time.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Saturday night...Lake effect cloud cover and potential snow showers keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals, except AVP.

Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ044-047. NY...None.