textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast rainfall amounts for tonight/early Sunday morning were increased across parts of the Wyoming Valley, particularly the Scranton area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms will move into the area tonight. Locally heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially across Northeast PA and parts of the western Catskills.

2) After a return to dry and cooler weather Monday and Tuesday, warmer weather and scattered showers and thunderstorms returns by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front continues to approach the region, which has resulted in increasing clouds. This will also result in rain showers moving into the area from west to east by later this afternoon and this evening

The most concentrated period of rain showers will be tonight/early Sunday morning. PWATs will be around 1.7 inches and coupled with a decent LLJ, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The greatest threat for this will be across Northeast PA-Catskills. Latest trends have been for the axis of heavier rainfall to be located slightly farther west, perhaps right through the Scranton area. Since this is a heavily urbanized area, this is currently where the greatest threat for localized flash flooding is. That being said, with drier antecedent conditions and the localized nature of the flash flooding threat, the decision was made after coordinating with surrounding WFOs to hold off on issuing a Flood Watch. A shorter-fused Flood Watch may be issued if the threat for Flash Flooding increases.

There will likely be a bit of a lull in the rainfall Sunday morning, before a cold front will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. There should be some destabilization in the afternoon, but lapse rates continue to look poor at this time. This will likely limit the severe thunderstorm potential for Sunday afternoon/early evening, but still cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of the cold front, cooler air will move into the region, which will bring highs in the 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will keep conditions dry during this period. Another system may bring some scattered showers and potentially some thunderstorms by the middle of next week, along with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through 0Z this evening before rain and lower cigs move in from west to east. the bulk of the rain will be for the Southern Tier and south where IFR or worse conditions are expected to develop. SE winds aloft at AVP will keep conditions VFR for longer even after the rain moves in but a shift in the winds to the west after around 9Z will cause IFR cigs. There is also some instability aloft so thunderstorms are possible in the late overnight hours at AVP.

ELM has a chance for some fog development if the winds go calm with the rain falling so LIFR is possible but not confident enough to put it as predominant or to take it all the way to airport mins in the tempo.

ITH will have MVFR to near IFR cigs with the SE winds while the wind direction increases confidence of IFR at BGM overnight. SYR and RME will be on the north end of the rain and may not see persistent MVFR overnight but may tomorrow as flow switches to come off Lake Ontario.

Rain moves out of the area from NW to SE between 10Z and 15Z with conditions gradually improving late morning into early afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon into night...Improving conditions Sunday afternoon but potential fog development overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Potential restrictions with front trying to make its way into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.