textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted rainfall amounts for Northeast Pennsylvania for this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A system will clip portions of the region with showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The weather will remain active through midweek.

2) Drier and cooler conditions are expected in time for the weekend, though rain will return by early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The weather will continue to remain active through the rest of this week with a longwave trough over Canada and a broad ridge out west. Later this afternoon and evening, a weak boundary will kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly northeast PA, and possibly clipping into portions of the Southern Tier. Although instability may be limited with some cloud cover hanging around this early afternoon, MLCAPE values could rise to around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear values between 30 to 40 kts. What is lacking is mid-level lapse rates, and given this, confidence is low for strong storms today, though a couple storms could become organized and have gusty winds as the main hazard, with a secondary hazard of potential localized excessive rainfall.

There was some concern of some overnight convection, but confidence is decreasing as ingredient parameters for good development is just not there after sunset. High pressure will build back into the region tomorrow, leading to a warm, dry day. The next weak disturbance will move through overnight and support isolated to scattered showers. With limited instability, a couple thunderstorms will also be possible, but stronger development is unlikely. Conditions will then dry again Thursday morning but with a deepening upper level trough, the next round of showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Showers will continue during the overnight hours as a cold front drops south across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the frontal passage, the end of the week and most of the weekend will be dry and cooler. After a week of temperatures maxing out in the upper 70s to mid 80s, most of the region will see highs in the 70s heading into the weekend. The next system to monitor will be a weak low pressure system to move into the region by Sunday night with the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air is quick to follow this system, though wrap around moisture may be enough to support some lingering showers on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the afternoon and evening at the terminals. There have been patchy MVFR ceilings that have been around the area, in particular near ITH and BGM and that remains the case over the next few hours along with a slight chance of a pop up shower. A stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out around ELM as well, but confidence is highest for AVP to see any spotty convection into this evening, so the PROB30 group remains in the forecast here, just slowed down by a couple of hours.

During the overnight hours winds will become calm at most terminals as weak high pressure moves in. While model guidance is not very bullish on the idea of fog for ELM tonight, conditions are set up well enough for it to form, even if no shower or thunderstorm crosses the terminal through this evening. There is a slight chance of patchy fog around ITH and BGM early tomorrow morning, so this will continue to be monitored. A chance for isolated showers and storms looks to return after 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Restrictions with overnight and early morning fog/low clouds are also possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance for a shower or storm Friday.

Sunday...Increasing chances for showers/storms later in the day and into Sunday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.