textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Minor adjustments were made to account for the large diurnal temperature swings each day.
KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure will bring quiet weather conditions through this week and into the start of next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will remain in control through this week and into the start of next week. A weak cold front will move through today, which could keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will be breezy as the front moves through. A Nor'easter along the coast will inch closer to the coastline Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation from this system is not expected to extend much inland, though with a tightening pressure gradient, winds will become gusty. At the same time, a cold front approaches from the northwest. Most models have it running out of moisture by the time it enters the region, but the ECMWF has been consistent over the last several runs now with showing minimal amounts of precipitation for parts of the region. With 1000-500mb RH values at around 60% in the ECMWF, moisture is even limited with that solution. If anything can develop during this time, it will likely be very light. A slight cool down is expected at the end of the week following the frontal passage, though temperatures will rebound over the weekend.
As needed over the last few forecast updates, adjustments were made to temperatures and dewpoints. Sunny skies have led to temperatures climbing above what most guidance had. Meanwhile, these clear skies have then led to temperatures tanking at night while an inversion has kept the higher elevations more mild. During peak heating, dewpoints have been significantly lowered as model guidance have often been too high.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions under high pressure expected across all terminals for most of the TAF period. Fog looks like it will hold off at SYR this morning. Guidance is hinting at some fog chances tonight at ELM, but confidence in it occurring is not high enough at this time to include in the TAF.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM possible each morning.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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