textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An additional cold weather advisory was issued for central NY and northeast PA for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers continue through Saturday with light accumulations over north central NY.

2) A reinforcement of Arctic air arrives Thursday into Friday. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect tonight, but conditions could warrant an upgrade to Extreme Cold headlines.

3) Coastal low still well south and east of our region and any impacts from this storm look more and more unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

West northwest flow off of Lake Ontario will continue to produce lake effect snow showers through Saturday mainly over north central NY. Model guidance shows the band dropping into north central NY this morning and continuing into Friday. Lake effect showers are not expected to make it too far inland with lake temperatures now around 4 to 6 degrees C. With the cold air mass in place snow ratios support a light fluffy snow. Accumulations are mainly expected over Cayuga, Onondaga, and Madison county. Areas slightly south of this could see a dusting or so. With the west northwest orientation of the band, Onondaga county could see snow totals near advisory criteria (2 to 4 inches). Despite this held off on issuing due to the long duration nature of this event.

Key Message #2...

Another surge of cold air is expected as an upper level trough swings into the northeast today into Friday. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecast to fall to -20C to -24C, with surface temperatures remaining below zero for much of the area tonight. A cold weather advisory was issued across central NY and northeast PA, but there is potential to see upgrades to extreme cold headlines in the next update. This would especially be true for the Poconos where criteria is at a lower threshold. Areas in Steuben and N. Oneida could also see criteria being met as well. That along with potential for some clearing in northeast PA could help temperatures radiate. Lake effect clouds should hold over central NY tonight. As of now localized wind chill temperatures could approach -25F to -30F across higher elevations with widespread -10F to -20F expected.

Key Message #3...

Model guidance continues to show the coastal low tracking east of the area and off of the eastern sea board. GFS took a slightly more eastern track and is now in agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian NH solutions. If models continue to trend this way, not expecting any impacts to our region at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Lake effect snow showers and flurries will be around central NY at times through the day, especially at SYR and RME. The best chance to see IFR conditions will be these two sites early this morning and again at SYR later this afternoon and evening.

Expect VFR conditions elsewhere for most of this morning. Lake clouds drop down from the north bringing MVFR conditons to ITH after about 16z today, but not until 22z this evening at BGM and it is now forecast to remain VFR for the entire taf period at ELM. VFR at AVP through the taf period.

Light snow showers will be possible at ITH this afternoon and evening and could extend down to BGM by evening as well; but lower confidence here. Mainly MVFR with these snow showers and flurries.

Expect west-southwest winds this morning, less than 10 kts through 15z. Then, winds veer west-northwest this afternoon increasing to 8-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts at times. Winds then diminish back under 10 kts during the evening hours.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...On and off lake effect snow showers may result in occasional restrictions at KRME and KSYR; otherwise mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057- 062. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ022- 062.