textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made for this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions will continue to be warm and dry through the rest of the work week with surface high pressure in place.

2) A frontal system will bring the next chance for rain this weekend, though temperatures will remain mild through the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure remains over the area. The upper level trough continues off to the east, allowing the warming trend to continue through the rest of the work week, with dry conditions prevailing through Friday. Southwest return flow will also bring up humidity late in the week, and high temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 80s, with some areas potentially reaching 90, by Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for widespread rain will come this weekend, as a frontal system approaches the region. This front is forecast to drop down out of Canada on Saturday and move through the region throughout the weekend. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing and speed of this system, long-range guidance shows different scenarios regarding the progression of the front. If the system stalls out, then rain showers will likely continue into early next week as well. The airmass out ahead of this system will be warm and humid, so there will be moisture to work with. If the front does get hung up, then portions of the area could pick up moderate to heavy rainfall from Saturday through Monday. Since the antecedent conditions over the last week have been dry, at this time, the risk for flooding appears low, even if the front stalls over the region. The only concern at this point in time will be when the front initially drops into the region, because PWATs will be highest at this time, and there will be some instability to work with as well, so thunderstorms will be likely. Higher rainfall rates in slow moving thunderstorms could produce localized flash flooding if they train over the same area for long enough of a period.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds pick back up with day time heating then calm back down around sunset once again. Dry air remaining in place and no recent rain will prevent fog development tonight.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and storms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.