textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the holiday weekend along with slight adjustments to temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity continues to be unhealthy and dangerous in for the rest of this week.

2) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the holiday weekend. Some storms may be strong to severe on Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong ridge of high pressure will nose a bit further northward into the region today. This should result in a fairly decent CAP forming today that lasts into the evening. Moisture will continue to be pumped into the region as well although dewpoints are modeled to be slightly lower today. Modeled 925 mb temperatures still indicate a few places may reach 100 degrees today and get well into the 90's Friday. Coupled with the humidity heat index values look to range from 100-110 degrees today and from 95-105 on Friday. The very hot readings may extend into Saturday for NEPA as well but a higher degree of uncertainity is present given the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Today, mid-level capping looks stronger than yesterday. Still given the past few days maintained the potential for a stray thunderstorm or two for this afternoon and tonight, highest chances further north. A cold front should start to sag close enough to the region Friday afternoon and evening to set off some scattered thunderstorms. Modeled CAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/KG and modest 0-6km shear of 20-30 knots leads to a potentially favorable environment for strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty to locally damaging winds. Unfortunately, the cold front looks to stall out and weaken some over the region through the holiday weekend into early next week. Given plenty of moisture around to be lifted the potential for several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms is present. Any threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will hinge on the amount of instability. High temperatures may trend considerably cooler early next week given modeling is indicating somewhat of an easterly flow north of the frontal boundary along with cloud cover.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

With the recent rainfall at RME and ITH, light winds and soundings showing a shallow inversion, some patchy fog or mist is possible early this morning.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for most locations during this TAF period. Expect increasing westerly winds this afternoon, sustained around 10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts at times possible. Winds become light and variable under 5 kts again after sunset into tonight.

Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible this afternoon and evening. The coverage is expected to be much lower compared to Wednesday, with more capping in place.RME and SYR may have the best chance of seeing any pop up convection, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook:

Late Tonight: Mainly VFR expected.

Friday through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/2 are at or just over the daily records.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.