textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Next system of interest is Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fresher cooler air finishes up the weekend, and continues into Monday.

2) Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday as the next frontal system pushes into the area, possibly lingering into Wednesday. A few could be strong to severe.

3) Drier pattern expected later Wednesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

In the wake of the severe weather event from Saturday, a fresh significantly cooler air mass will advect over the region today. Air Quality Alert remains for our NY Counties as issued by the NY DEC, and there indeed may be a bit of smoke still hanging around early. However, northwest winds at the surface, and north-northwest winds at the top of the boundary layer, will at least tend to bring in cleaner air than experienced on Saturday. 850mb temperatures will actually slip below 50F/10C degrees which is quite cool for this time of year, enough to actually maintain a shallow cloud deck this morning, peeling back away from Northeast PA late morning and then finally scattering out for Central NY into early afternoon. Full sunshine and fresh air with northwest gusts of 10-20 mph will make for a gorgeous mid-to-late afternoon with highs mainly in the 70s. This will lead to a mainly clear sky under high pressure tonight with patchy fog formation aided by the wet ground of recent rainfall, and chilly lows of upper 40s-mid 50s. Sunshine continues Monday, with a light return flow on the back side of the high getting temperatures into upper 70s-lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next front and trough approaches the area later in the day on Tuesday into perhaps Wednesday. This will bring increasing humidity and instability in the southerly flow ahead of the incoming frontal system Tuesday. Dew points will rise back to upper 60s-near 70 yet with high temperatures still managing upper 70s-lower 80s. As with the system just experienced, an anomalously deep parent surface low into the 990s mb range is projected in Canada, with warm front/cold front tandem extending from it into our area. Flow aloft will also be quite strong for this time of year, pointing to potentially favorable shear for storm organization. This will all depend on the timing of the incoming front though, and any upwind mesoscale complexes which could complicate things. The Storm Prediction Center has been advertising a severe thunderstorm risk for portions of the forecast area, so we will need to monitor the timing of features closely for organized convection including potentially strong to severe cells and locally heavy rainfall. The pace of the front and trough in some models also is fairly slow, again pointing to possible locally heavy rainfall and also that it could linger into Wednesday at least for areas east of I-81.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the frontal exits the area by later Wednesday, a drier pattern is figured for the rest of the week. Surface high pressure will keep things generally dry, yet a broad low amplitude trough aloft will hold temperatures to mild levels for a few days with cooler nights, before moderating warmer late in the week. Limited moisture even into Saturday suggests that chances of rain will be quite low to start next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The cloud deck this morning has not been as low as advertised, with most areas VFR. Clouds should slowly dissipate as the morning progresses, with clear skies in the afternoon.

Overnight, patchy fog will be possible under high pressure and mostly clear skies. Currently, ELM has the best chance for IFR restrictions, but ITH, RME and BGM could also see periods of fog. Confidence is not high enough to include restrictions for these terminals at this time.

Outlook:

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

Thursday... Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.