textproduct: Binghamton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast package.
KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure will offer mostly sunny/clear skies and seasonable temperatures into early Sunday. Morning valley fog is likely throughout the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware river basins.
2) Showers and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Sunday afternoon through the middle of next week as the next upper level trough moves into the area.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will reign over the region through Saturday. With nights starting to get a little longer and some boundary layer moisture in place, areas of valley fog will develop in the overnight hours, lasting through sunrise. Daily high temperatures expected to be 80s Friday through Sunday. Due to good radiational cooling expected tonight, we have blended the NBM10 guidance into the minimum temperature guidance to account for more cooling than an average forecast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model ensemble guidance indicates that a broad upper level trough will become established during first half of next week with seasonable to slightly below average temperatures and higher chances for precipitation. CAPE and shear values increase and combine from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday enough to flag that time period for thunderstorm activity. The most active day appears to be Tuesday as low pressure drags a frontal system across the area. Convective parameters look weaker than recent setups that produced severe weather in our region, but the trends bare watching closely. The broad trough will keep a risk of showers going through the end of the week.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals but ELM. Given clear skies and dry air aloft coupled with light winds, fog likely develops after 9Z and will burn off shortly after sunrise around 12Z. Tomorrow is looking VFR at all terminals with high pressure remaining in place.
Outlook:
Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR; morning fog at KELM may result in restrictions.
Sunday into Tuesday...Scattered afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None. NY...None.
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