textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts again have trended slightly higher Sunday into Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and pleasant fall weather expected today, along with mild temperatures. Periods of rain and breezy southeast winds Sunday into Sunday night from a post tropical cyclone. Dry and warm weather returns in its wake for Monday.

3) The next frontal system looks to bring numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Dry weather returns for the middle of next week, along with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

High level cirrus clouds will continue to stream over the area this this afternoon, gradually becoming a bit thicker and solid by this evening. Overall, conditions are partly sunny with sunshine filtering through the high clouds and seasonably warm temperatures in the 60s. Tonight will feature increasing, thickening and lowering cirrus clouds. It will be cool, especially east and north of Binghamton, with lows in the 40s for most locations.

High pressure slowly departs to the east tonight with a post tropical cyclone pushing in from the southwest. This will bring scattered to widespread rain showers to the region tomorrow that last most of the day. There still remains some minor uncertainty on the exact timing of the incoming rain Sunday morning. CAMs suggest showers will move in mid to late morning, and spread over the entire region by mid afternoon. Showers will continue into the evening hours before exiting. These rain showers also have potential to produce some thunder, mainly late afternoon into early evening. There may be some lingering rain shows late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Overall rainfall totals have been trending a bit higher each update, totals across the region range from half an inch to an inch, with the highest totals over northeast PA and the Southern Tier region of NY. East-southeast winds will increase, especially over the ridgetops between 8-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph for the hilltops in NE PA.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Monday is looking dry, with gradually decreasing clouds as an upper level ridge pushes in from the west. Winds shift northwesterly and mild high temperatures should reach well into the 60s. A surface low is forecast to track to our north through the day on Tuesday along with a cold front. Initially this will put our CWA in the warm sector, with southwest winds and warm temperatures expected. This should allow surface instability to increase ahead of the frontal passage if the timing works out. Model soundings show CAPE values ranging 200-500 J/Kg, along with 30-40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. PWATs also increase to around 1.4 in, so any convective showers that do form also has the potential to produce heavy downpours. If we do get some breaks of sun, it could be quite warm on Tuesday with highs in the mid-60s to low 70s.

Behind this frontal system the latest guidance keeps it mainly dry and seasonably cool for Wednesday and Thursday next week. The next chance for rain will be Friday, into Saturday as a potentially deep trough approaches the forecast area. This could bring much cooler temperatures for next weekend, stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Quiet VFR weather through much of the overnight hours with high clouds overhead from the remnants of Isaias. Rain from this system will begin to push into AVP around sunrise, with conditions falling to Fuel alt 1-2 hours later, then IFR restriction through the end of the TAF period.

BGM/ELM/ITH will see rain showers move in by mid-morning, with MVFR/Fuel alt conditions quickly following. IFR restrictions may develop late in the TAF period during periods of heavier rain, but confidence in IFR occurring is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

SYR and RME should start to see rain showers late morning/early afternoon but VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon and Sunday night...IFR restrictions possible through the overnight hours.

Monday through Monday night...Generally VFR conditions with weak high pressure passing through.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system approaches the region with showers and even a small chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.