textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Northern Oneida, in effect from 11 AM Friday through 2 PM Saturday. Accumulating snowfall from upslope enhancement expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A clipper system arriving tomorrow and lasting into Saturday will bring a chance of mixed rain and snow, along with gusty winds. Accumulating snow will mainly affect higher elevations Central New York, with the Southern Tug Hill having the best chances for significant accumulation.

2) Another warm-up expected late weekend as a stronger low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region bringing another large swing in temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A clipper system is expected to arrive tomorrow morning, and to bring mostly snowfall, with rainfall mixing in as temperatures warm above freezing in the afternoon. A few inches of snowfall can be expected for Central NY, mainly for higher elevations. However, upslope enhancement in the Tug Hill area and Northern Oneida County will bring accumulating snowfall from Friday late morning through Saturday afternoon. There's a bit of uncertainty with amounts; the deterministic NBM snowfall showed a large footprint of amounts approaching a foot, yet probabilities reflected much lower amounts. This is further supported when looking at soundings for Northern Oneida, where the greatest lift is under the DGZ with warm air advection. The most likely range of snowfall expected is between 4 to 8 inches, with very localized higher amounts for areas on the northern and eastern edges of the county, where upslope enhancement on terrain amplifies amounts to the north and east of Northern Oneida.

Additionally, southerly-turning-westerly gusty winds expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Probabilities reflect low potential for reaching advisory criteria, but some areas in Central NY could see upwards of 30 to 40 mph gusts at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next system is expected to develop and move towards the area the latter half of the weekend. As the main low center approaches late Sunday, the pressure gradient tightens, and gusty southerly winds are possible late Sunday night into early Monday morning. NBM probabilities show a signal of 30-50% chance for wind gusts reaching advisory criteria, mainly for the Finger Lakes and hills in northern Central NY. We'll continue to monitor trends in probabilities for potential wind headlines overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

Southerly flow under the warm sector of the low will bring a brief warm-up, with expected high temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s Monday as the warm front lifts through, which also brings widespread rainfall to the area.

Going into Monday evening, the cold front of the aforementioned system is expected to pass through west-to-east, dropping temperatures down to the low to mid 20s by dawn Tuesday. Any precipitation along with this front will transition to snow, which will mainly occur overnight Monday. Additionally, there won't be much moisture left once the cold front approaches, so minimal amounts of snowfall.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR ceiling restrictions linger through at least early afternoon for most sites. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to return and continue through the rest of the period.

Gusty northwest winds are expected throughout the period with occasional gusts up to 30kts possible at times. Winds will gradually diminish this evening.

Outlook:

Friday through Friday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ009.