textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for most of the area, except for the Finger Lakes Region, for mixed precipitation Friday morning. Mixed precipitation lingers longer for the Catskills and Oneida County and therefore the advisories for those areas are in effect until early Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region on Friday bringing rain and mixed precipitation to the region Friday into Saturday.

2) A coastal storm will likely miss our region well to the east Sunday into Monday, but a weak trough may still bring some light snow to the region.

3) There remains a potential for some ice jams over the next few days with temperatures remaining at or above freezing with additional rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure will move across the western Great Lakes Region on Friday, with an extending warm front lifting into the Northeast. Precipitation will start off as a wintry mix Friday morning for most areas (mainly freezing rain and snow), before warmer air finally reaches the surface by the afternoon and transitions most areas to rain. However, colder air damming will likely keep the Catskills to the Mohawk Valley colder longer at the surface, and therefore a more prolonged period of a wintry mix.

The area of low pressure in the Great Lakes propagates through NY and off of the coast Friday night into Saturday. As it does, the warm front transitions to a cold front with precipitation transitioning to snow Friday night. Given the speed of the low propagation and the lift moves east fast, snow accumulations are expected to be light, with the greatest snow accumulation across northern Oneida County.

Although there is a low-medium confidence on exact ice accumulation amounts, there is a rather high confidence in seeing enough widespread freezing rain (particularly east of I-81) for a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued with this afternoon forecast package, except for parts of the Finger Lakes Region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The threat for widespread significant accumulating snow Sunday into Monday remains low as the trends in models have been towards a less efficient phasing of shortwaves keeping the trough less amplified. In other words, the phasing would likely occur too far offshore and keep any significant precipitation either completely offshore/over the Atlantic, or clipping parts of coastal New England. There is still some wiggle room for this system to develop closer to the coast, but the odds of this are decreasing with each model cycle.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With much of the area remaining above freezing and potential for additional rain Friday into Saturday, the threat remains for ice jams. NOHRSC analysis shows the snowpack temperature is up to 32 degrees for much of the Finger Lakes into NEPA, so any rain and snowmelt will be running into the streams and rivers. River ice is also estimated to be around a foot on some of the main stems so as the water rises and the ice breaks up, there is ice jam potential anywhere there is a sharp bend or a narrowing of a river or stream.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A mix of MVFR to IFR restrictions are expected to continue this evening and into much of tonight as the lower levels remain moist on area soundings along with some continued low level inversions in place. Winds will remain light out of the southeast. The inversion level does look to lift around BGM for several hours which is expected to allow for restrictions to finally lift to MVFR.

Warm advection rain is expected to move from southwest to northeast across the area tomorrow starting around 10Z-13Z which is expected to lead to IFR or worse visbys. Model soundings show the potential for a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow at BGM and RME during this time. By late morning and toward the end of the TAF, precipitation is expected to become more showery in nature at most of the terminals, but restrictions remain.

There is also some potential for LLWS tomorrow at most sites, though confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Lingering showers, mainly in the form of rain, are expected to keep restrictions in place.

Friday night...Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers and associated restrictions.

Saturday...Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Confidence is low on restrictions with the uncertainty in timing and coverage.

Sunday...Potential coastal low could impact central NY and NE PA Sunday with restrictions from snow showers. Confidence is low.

Monday...Mainly VFR; low chance of light snow showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for NYZ036-044-045-055-056. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ037-046-057-062.