textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered tonight through Tuesday night and sky cover was increased for the mixed precipitation system. Precipitation types were updated based on the colder temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Today and most of tonight will be dry but cold.

2) A system will bring a wintry mix to the region Tuesday. The wintry mix then becomes mainly rain and snow Tuesday evening and night.

3) Spring-like conditions are expected for the remainder of the week with warming temperatures and multiple chances for rain showers. The potential for ice jams and flooding will increase near the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Skies will be sunny once again today as high pressure remains overhead. Temperatures though will remain cold with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Skies will stay clear for most of the night leading to good radiational cooling. Temperatures were lowered below most guidance and as a result, lows are expected to be in the teens and low 20s. A few locations in the Tug Hill will see single digits. With calm winds overnight, wind chills will only be slightly lower than temperatures. The high pressure will slide out to sea tonight as the next system approaches from the south. Cloud cover will begin to increase ahead of this system late tonight. A few stray showers cannot be ruled out, but the main event will hold off until Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned system will push in from the south Tuesday morning. Precipitation will spread from south to north throughout the day. This system will bring a wintry mix to the region, though exact precipitation types remain uncertain. Model soundings are initially dry above, so some freezing drizzle may be observed during the onset. Conditions become saturated quickly within the DGZ, leading to snow and potentially some sleet early on. As precipitation spreads east, there will be a greater potential for ice accumulations in the higher elevations of the Poconos and Catskills, though that does not look to happen until the afternoon. Elsewhere, precipitation becomes mainly rain with the exception of areas north of the potential mix where it will be just snow. Precipitation types become more simple Tuesday evening and overnight with rain continuing for most though colder areas across the north will continue to observe snow. This system slides out of the region by Wednesday morning and high pressure builds back into the region.

For this system, temperatures and dew points were a blend of NBM/NBM 10th percentile/NAMNest/ADJMAV guidance. This gave a cooler solution with less mixing. Additional manual adjustments were made to force more snow early on into the forecast and less freezing rain. As mentioned, higher elevations east of I-81 would have the greatest icing potential as a more defined warm nose is shown in model soundings with surface temperatures near freezing. Ice accumulations are expected to be minimal as freezing rain should be brief and a warmer March sun should help with warming. Snowfall amounts will also be light and any accumulation in the morning will quickly melt with the rain that follows. The exception would be N. Oneida where localized accumulations could exceed an inch as colder conditions and snow linger longer.

Given the uncertainty with the icing potential, no advisories were issued at this time. If future forecasts trend toward more wintry mix and ice accumulations, then advisories may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

It will begin to feel more like spring the rest of the week as temperatures trend warmer and there are multiple chances for rain showers. High pressure will stick around through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track and timing of the next system, conditions may remain dry through Wednesday night as well. Some low chance PoPs are in the forecast though as some guidance bring that system north. Then a weak low pressure system slides through Thursday and Friday. Models show a touch of instability nudging into NEPA late Thursday, so a slight chance for thunder is mentioned. A surge of warm air moves in behind a warm front late in the week, leading to temperatures in the 60s for some on Saturday. A cold front soon follows though and looks to stall out, but exactly where remains uncertain. This stalled front would support rain showers throughout most of the weekend.

As it has been discussed, we will need to monitor the rivers and streams for any ice jams and minor flooding late this week and into the weekend. The warm up will be gradual but adding rain to the mixture will accelerate snowpack melting and lead to runoff.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to be in place through much of the 12Z TAF period. A deck of high clouds streaming across most of the terminals is expected to clear around 17-19Z, then clear skies will be in place into the evening with high pressure overhead.

The surface high will shift east later tonight, giving way to increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching storm system that looks to start out as a brief period of snow before becoming a wintry mix. While the precipitation looks to move up from the south and reach ELM and AVP shortly after 12Z Tuesday, ceilings are expected to lower prior to the end of the TAF, introducing MVFR restrictions to the two terminals along with BGM.

Outlook:

Tuesday...A brief initial round of snow becomes a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and even plain rain likely resulting in IFR and Alternate Min. restrictions. Mixed precipitation turns to mainly rain Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday (mainly Wednesday night) through Friday...Rainy periods likely with a chance for low ceilings, fog, and associated flight restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.