textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A general 3 to 7 inches of snow is expected across most of the area today with the steadiest snow tapering off during the early to mid afternoon. Lingering light lake effect snow showers and flurries are expected tonight, followed by dry conditions Wednesday. A sharp cold front will bring snow showers on Thursday, with much colder temperatures in the forecast for Thursday night and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

835 AM Update

On going winter weather event this morning remains well on track. Only minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF and snow based on the latest radar and observational trends....along with the latest HRRR model guidance. Steadiest snow is occurring now and for next 4-6 hours over the area. Latest predicted end time for the steady snow is noon-1PM over the central southern tier, 3-4 PM along the I-81 corridor and 4-6 pm over our eastern forecast zones in the Catskills and eastern Poconos. Snowfall amounts still on track for 3-7 inches across the forecast area, with 5-9 inches in Sullivan county. Snowfall rates are coming in as expected, around or just over 1"/hr this morning. Temperatures are steady to slowly rising in the mid to upper 20s. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the 30s later this afternoon. Light south-southeast winds turn Northwesterly this afternoon behind the departing low and increase up to 7-15 mph.

Previous Discussion Below

**Winter Weather Advisory in effect for much of the forecast area late tonight through early Tuesday evening. Winter Storm Warning for Sullivan County**

An elongated low pressure from the Deep South and Ohio Valley will send moisture into the region that will be lifted into a fairly widespread area of snow as the low moves northeast. This snow looks to move this morning through most of the afternoon hours. QPF amounts have come down slightly given some dry air at the surface. Still the general expectation of a quick hitting 3-6 inches, locally 8 for Sullivan NY remains. 700mb FGEN forcing suggests the highest rates to be around an inch per hour for the course of the event. Also the potential for two slightly higher local maximums near the NY/PA line and in the Poconos/Sullivan NY is still present. With temperatures in the 20's to low 30's, ratios look to be around the typical 10:1 values.

Mesoscale modeling is picking up on some additional light snow shower and flurry development over the Finger Lakes and portions of CNY later this afternoon and evening. Incorporated these models for POP given the NBM's typical struggles in this area. Any additional accumulation would be minor. With clouds hanging around, temperatures should only fall to around 20 for most of the region.

High pressure builds into the region for a short stay Wednesday. Clouds will be slow to erode but the potential for some peaks of sun is present in the afternoon with temperatures nudging into the 30's.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Temperatures won't fall much Wednesday night with warm air advection on the backside of the high. However, a sharp arctic cold front looks to push through Thursday. Temperatures may end up falling slightly Thursday into the 20's.

A favorable setup for some snow showers and snow squalls is present as well. Momentum transfer off of sounding data shows the potential for some 20-30 mph gusts coupled with slight amounts of CAPE around 30 J/KG. The falling temperatures also brings a flash freeze potential unlike earlier events this season. Quick accumulations up to an inch could occur with this snowfall. more of the fluffy variety (higher ratios).

The window looks to be short for any lake effect in the traditional locations off of Lake Ontario Thursday evening with high pressure building into the region. Still some additional fluffy accumulation could occur. For the rest of us it's a race to see if we can clear things out or not in terms of low temperatures. If we do clear out lows should fall into the single digits due to snow cover.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A cold but drier Friday is currently anticipated under high pressure. Ensemble guidance has come into better agreement sliding a system to our south Friday night. A broad northwest flow with weak clipper systems looks to take hold this weekend with additional chances for snow showers. This looks to be followed by another shot of arctic air Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Snow is beginning to taper off slightly earlier than expected this afternoon. As a result we have already started to see improvements in visibilities at ELM/ITH. Improvements will continue from west to east as the system moves out of the region. Lingering IFR or worse conditions expected at RME/SYR/BGM/AVP early in this period before the snow ends. Otherwise MVFR ceilings and visibilities will return for through the remainder of the period.

There is a low chance of spotty lake effect snow showers or flurries behind the system, but no IFR restrictions are expected. Winds will be less than 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as a frontal system approaches the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ039- 040-044-048-072. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ038-043-047. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ009- 036-037-045-046-056-057. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ062.