textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High pressure will bring areas of freezing fog overnight. Tuesday has trended drier than previous forecast and there remains uncertainty if any rain showers will make it east of the I81 corridor due to the dry air mass in place.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will be directly overhead tonight into Monday, bringing chilly overnight lows and areas of freezing fog early Monday morning. Dry and quiet weather will remain through at least Tuesday morning.

2) A front approaches the area Tuesday, but with the dry air in place it will be tough for light rain showers to push east of I81. The next low pressure center brings better chances for a wetting, soaking rainfall later on Wednesday. Much cooler weather moves into the region Thursday through the end of next weekend as an upper level low spins overhead.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clear and cold conditions tonight with efficient radiational cooling. Areas of fog and freezing fog will be likely through Monday morning. Fog burns off by mid morning Monday and then mostly sunny skies are expected with high pressure overhead.

Only changes from NBM were to lower dewpoints and slightly increase temperatures tomorrow afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. Min RH values are likely to dip into the low 30s percent and possibly below 30% in some areas, but due to recent rainfall, there are no fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

South winds increase Tuesday morning between 8-20 mph with a few higher gusts out ahead the next incoming front. Forecast soundings are showing very dry air in place over central NY and this will be tough for incoming moisture to penetrate. The frontal boundary pushes in from the west Tuesday afternoon, and mid level clouds increase from west to east by midday. Showers are likely to reach into the Finger Lakes Region, but not sure if any moisture is going to make it east of I81. There may just be some light showers or sprinkles.

Another low pressure will push in from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This system will have much more moisture to work with and widespread rain showers are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. Behind the departing low Wednesday night, a cold front pushes through. An upper level trough/low will then settle over the region and possibly remain there right through next weekend. This time period will feature shortwaves and disturbances rotating through the area at different times with cool and unsettled conditions. It won't be raining or precipitating the entire time, but each day will feature chances of isolated to scattered showers with partly to mostly cloudy conditions. 850mb temperatures are forecast to range from -2 to -6C this entire timeframe and a few snow showers will also be possible, especially across higher elevations. Frost and Freeze headlines start for portions of the area on May 1st and unfortunately the first few days of May could see overnight lows into the low 30s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening. However, with plenty of low level moisture present from recent rainfall, light winds, and clear skies, widespread fog is expected to develop late tonight/early Monday morning. This will likely result in IFR-or-worse restrictions at most terminals, especially KELM. While fog cannot be completely ruled out at KAVP, confidence is too low there to include in the TAFs at this time. Fog will quickly dissipate after 12Z/13Z Monday, which will result in a return to VFR conditions.

Outlook:

Monday afternoon through Monday night...Mainly VFR expected; fog possible early Monday morning.

Tuesday...Rain showers moving in from west to east with associated restrictions, mainly in the late afternoon and at night.

Wednesday through Friday...Additional scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.