textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered precipitation chances through the early evening as storms have been slow to form today so far with dry air aloft.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with potential for a couple stronger storms in Northeast PA.

2) Cooler and drier weather this weekend into early next week under North to Northwest flow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Breaks of sun have allowed temperatures to warm this afternoon with dew points remaining in the upper 60s and low 70s. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000 to 2000 Joules of Surface CAPE as of 2 pm. Water vapor imagery does have dry air in place overhead so as it continues to warm, we may begin to dry out which will lower the SBCAPE. There is also not an evident trigger/shortwave coming in to help spark off some storms until late this afternoon or evening which could be after we stabilize. Shear is still sufficient for strong storms and supercell potential if something was to break through the cap and develop over the next few hours. There is some evidence that storms could organize into a squall line again in western PA and move into NEPA early tonight between 9 pm and 11 pm so that area continues to be highlighted by SPC with a sliver of a marginal risk and slight risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After today, the ridge in the central US will flatten a bit allowing for the trough in New England to nudge in. This puts us under cooler, north to northwest flow from tomorrow into early next week. While it does look fairly dry, the cooler flow over the warm Great Lakes may result in some lake effect rain showers at times though they will be spotty and short lived if they do even occur.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mainly VFR ceilings are expected to be in place through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Clouds streaming over the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier are occasionally leading to periods of MVFR restrictions and that will likely be the case through the next few hours. As a weak frontal boundary continues gradually dropping south, isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible, mainly from ITH on south, with the greatest chance being around AVP, which continues to have a PROB30 group into the early evening. If anything looks to reach ITH, ELM or BGM, this will be handled by amendments. A complex of thunderstorms across Lower Michigan is also being shown by most CAMs to move across NE PA late this evening and into the overnight, and clip AVP, so an additional PROB30 group has been added for this feature.

It also appears that we'll have some areas of low clouds and fog to contend with as well overnight with moist low-levels from recent rainfall and light to calm winds.

After any early morning low clouds and fog, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period. There is the chance for additional isolated to scattered showers/storms tomorrow afternoon after 18Z, mainly across NE PA.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR; isolated showers or thunderstorms around AVP.

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.