textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe threat has increased some with the Wyoming Valley area now in an 'Enhanced Risk'. Otherwise, no significant changes for the forecast with Tuesday the most active day expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms remains for Tuesday.

2) Showers will linger into at least the first half of Wednesday followed by drier weather through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon for the entire BGM CWA. The primary threat is wind with large hail and an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. There is a 'Slight Risk' across the entire area from the Storm Prediction Center. An 'Enhanced Risk'is in place across the Wyoming Valley area, along with areas further south into Pennsylvania. This will all unfold as a strong trough drops out of Canada and tracks across the Great Lakes, while at the same time a sub 995 mb sfc low will track near the southern tip of James Bay, dragging its associated frontal boundaries across the region.

Some morning showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible for Tuesday as the warm front associated with the system tracks northeast. Though primary timing for the strong to severe thunderstorm potential is expected for the afternoon into evening hours. This is when the warm sector of the system will increase instability over the region, while earlier shear values will increase some toward 40 kts. Instability will increase to around 1,500 J/kg for SB CAPE and closer to 2,000 J/kg for MU CAPE. A pre-frontal trough tracking across the area during the afternoon into the early evening will provide the forcing for the storms to develop (if not already developed upstream). Storms should move pretty quick with the overall flow in place, but heavy downpours can be expected at times with the thunderstorms as PWat values increase to the 1.75-2.00" range. If a few thunderstorms hit the same area in a short window of time, then the potential for localized flooding issues will increase. A 'Marginal Risk' for excessive rainfall is in place for the entire area on Tuesday from WPC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The best chance for showers will occur as the cold front associated with the system tracks through the region during the early morning hours. After, some lingering showers will be possible as the axis of the large trough over the region tracks across and then east of the area by later Wednesday.

Ridging will increase across the region as a sfc highs slide east from the mid Mississippi Valley to the coast of New England from Thursday morning through Saturday morning.

Cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will start to warm later into the week and the weekend as return flow increases behind the sfc high shifting east.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

LIFR restrictions have settled into ELM thanks to valley fog. These restrictions should lift by 13z. VFR conditions will be present across all terminals into the overnight hours. Rain showers moving into AVP late tonight will bring some MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will also be possible at BGM.

Outlook:

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions.

Thursday and Friday... Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.