textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slightly increased wind gusts for Thursday and Friday and lowered relative humidity during afternoon peak heating.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief dry period through the end of the week, then rain showers in the forecast this weekend and again on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will be in place over the next couple of days. NW flow picks up tomorrow afternoon with gusts increasing to around 20 mph through the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings support lower RH values tomorrow afternoon and Friday, so deviated from the NBM forecast for dew point temperatures over that time frame. Tomorrow, Min RH in the afternoon will dip to near 30%, however, due to recent rainfall, tomorrow will be a good drying day and any fire weather concerns are too limited in area and duration during the peak heating of the afternoon, so an SPS was not needed. On Friday, forecast soundings are showing drier air, and Min RH values could dip into the upper teens to low 20s percent. At this time, it looks like winds will be fairly weak on Friday, but if they increase to 10-15 mph, then an SPS may be warranted for fire weather Friday afternoon.

Our next chance for rain showers will be on Saturday with a weak cold front. Saturday is looking cool and damp with highs forecast to be only in the upper 40s to low 50s. Ridging builds back into the NE U.S. Monday into Tuesday and highs should return back into the 60s. A stronger frontal system is forecast for Tuesday with more widespread rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as well.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A weak warm front and low pressure system over western NY will be suppressed southward tonight as high pressure builds in. VFR is expected through the period with areas of scattered cumulus and stratocumulus forming in the relative warmth of this afternoon. CCL and LCL heights should be just high enough to keep any brief broken ceilings out of MVFR but with confidence low-medium, pilots should monitor closely especially if traveling eastbound where AWC has outlined MTNOBSC through 03Z.

Later tonight under clearing skies, there are signals indicating restrictive visibilities forming in mist/fog...but the trends have been declining. Have backed off the typical fog terminals to just temporary fluctuations into MVFR but confidence is low. Scattered cirrus is expected after 12Z Thursday.

Winds will be light into tonight before mixing back up on Thursday to 10-15 KTS.

Outlook:

Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible late in the day and at night.

Saturday...Showers and associated restrictions possible into the night; low chance of thunder.

Sunday and Monday...VFR. Becoming windy on Monday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.