textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some patchy frost will be possible the next few nights across northern Oneida County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain showers move out of northeast PA later this morning or early this afternoon and then dry conditions are expected into Friday.

2) There is still a good deal of uncertainty and spread in the development and track of a Nor'Easter on Friday and into the weekend. At this time, the system appears like it will have little impact in our region, but if the low does track further west, some periods of rain will be possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry Canadian high pressure is pushing in from the north and will keep rain associated with a low pressure system mostly south of our area. Clouds will start to clear across the northern CWA this morning with persistent clouds and a few rain showers across the southern CWA. Rainfall amounts continue to decrease, and only about 0.10 inches or lower is possible along the I-80 corridor in Luzerne County. Elsewhere, measurable rainfall is not expected, but can't rule out a few sprinkles early this morning from the Southern Tier southward. High pressure and ridging will set up over the region later today and settle there through at least Friday. This setup brings northeasterly flow, advecting dry and cool air into the forecast area. By later Thursday an upper level low phases together with northern stream energy to develop a 500mb low over Virginia, but again our area remains dry as ridging should hold.

Temperatures will be in the 60s for highs each day, with lows in the mid to upper 30s to low 40s each night. There will be potential for patchy frost for at least northern Oneida County the next few nights and an advisory may be needed if confidence in coverage increases.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Model guidance continues to struggle with the complex weather pattern setting up Friday into the weekend. As mentioned above some upper level energy will dive south across New England Thursday and merge with the 500mb low drifting east from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. 0z GFS and ECMWF keep most impacts from this system well east of our area, but some wraparound moisture could bring some rain showers Friday and this weekend. It will take a major shift in the track to impact our area, and appears more of an issue for Long Island and New England at this time. There is potential that high pressure holds all the way through the week and the weekend, with dry conditions.

Trends in the latest guidance will continue to be monitored closely in the coming days just in case the storms track shifts. At this time, the possible outcomes range from mostly sunny and dry conditions Friday/Saturday...to cooler and cloudy with periods of rain, especially for our far eastern Catskill zones. North- northwest winds could also be breezy and gusty, 8-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph in this timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this evening. Some showers will be possible at AVP early this morning, not anticipating restrictions at this time. Models continue to hint at fog for ELM early this morning. However, confidence remains low as cloud cover and drier air pushing in could prevent fog from developing. If fog does develop, then IFR/LIFR restrictions are possible until just after sunrise.

Outlook...

Wednesday Through Friday...Mainly VFR; potential for patching fog and IFR restrictions in early morning hours.

Friday Night through Saturday...Low chance for showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.