textproduct: Binghamton

SYNOPSIS

A weak cold front may bring some isolated rain or snow showers across northern Oneida County Wednesday. Warmer air starts pushing into the region by tomorrow night. Temperatures will continue to warm through Thursday and then a strong frontal system will push through Thursday night into Friday morning. A period of heavy rain and strong gusty winds will be likely as the system passes. Behind the front, much colder air and lake effect snow showers are expected to develop late Friday and persist into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

No major weather impacts are expected through the near term period. A weak cold front sweeps through the northern portion of the forecast area Wednesday and this may bring some isolated rain/snow showers north of the I90 corridor. Some light wintry mix is also possible, but confidence was too low to keep in the forecast at this time as QPF amounts are very light and may completely miss our CWA to the north. Will continue to monitor this weak weather system, but at this time, any ice accretion from freezing rain appears unlikely.

Warm air advection starts taking hold aloft Wednesday night was ridging builds in. Cold air will likely remain at the surface through the night with lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Strong cold front will push through the region Thursday night through Friday.

Temperatures will warm through the day on Thursday, but high temperatures will likely not be reached until Thursday night. Non diurnal temperatures are likely with strong warm air advection Thursday night into early Friday morning out ahead of the cold front. Southerly winds really ramp up out ahead of the incoming front to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph by Thursday night. Temperatures should surge to well above average levels in the afternoon, likely reaching the low to mid-40s before sunset.

Heavy rain moves in Thursday night and possibly could see a few embedded thunderstorms. There is potential that rainfall amounts will reach around or just over 1 inch. At this time, rainfall and snowmelt does not appear like it will be enough to cause any flooding issues. Strong low level jet of 70 to 75 kts at the 850mb level pushes in overnight, but forecast sounding are showing a fairly strong low level inversion Thursday night and it will be tough to mix winds down to the surface, but still think its possible for gusts up to 40 mph in any convective showers. Stronger winds are expected on Friday morning with FROPA and advisory level criteria could be met.

By Friday morning, the sharp cold front will be racing east across the area, bringing falling temperatures through the day. Any left over precipitation will eventually changeover to snow showers by Friday afternoon as 850mb temperatures reach -10C by sunset. There could be some minor snow accumulations, especially for north-central NY into the NY Thruway corridor as some lake enhancement develops.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

No significant systems are expected in the long term period, but several fast moving systems will be possible in zonal flow.

Lake effect snow and lowing snow is likely Friday night over the northern Susquehanna and Mohawk Valley. Lingering lake effect snow is expected to rapidly diminish Saturday morning as a weak surface high briefly builds in from the south. The next warm frontal clipper system will race into the area later in the day, bringing a chance for light snow/snow showers over the northern half of our CWA. This system will drag another cold front through Sunday morning. NW flow off the lakes mean more scattered lake effect snow showers in the forecast along with seasonably cold and blustery conditions. It will be much colder Sunday night and Monday behind the front, with a few lingering snow showers possible. Highly fluctuating temperatures are possible heading into early next week, with quick moving frontal systems looking to pass north or over the area. This type of pattern would bring some light snow to the area, with brief warm ups as winds turn southerly, then quick cool downs as winds veer northwesterly behind the fast moving shortwave systems.

Looking at 250 mb mean winds into the weekend and early next week, flow becomes fairly zonal with the jet stream centered over NY and PA. That means the flow will be fast, with frequent shortwaves leading to unpredictability this far out. The long term also is not looking as cold as the lowest temperature anomalies retreat into the NW territories and Alaska into the weekend.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The low deck of clouds from this morning lingers for a few Central NY terminals, but is slowly eroding northward. VFR conditions expected at all terminals by the next hour.

Weak LLWS is expected to develop at all terminals after 03Z Wednesday or so, becoming a bit stronger and more widespread after 06Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR ceilings possible across portions of Central NY.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...Strong frontal passage with rain showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers along with associated restrictions. LLWS likely Thursday into Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered snow showers possible across Central NY with occasional restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.