textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made slight adjustments to temperatures Monday and Tuesday afternoon to account for NBM seasonal bias.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strengthening ridge of high pressure will lead to above average temperatures through the middle of next week. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday.

2) A cold front will bring the potential for stronger thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler conditions to wrap up next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure over the region today and southwest flow will bring mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures. High pressure will gradually move east as the day progresses allowing clouds to increase ahead of a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings are showing quite a bit of dry air in place over the region and as a short wave pushes in this afternoon, there will be limited moisture to work with. However, can't rule out some isolated to scattered showers or storms, mostly across the Finger Lakes Region and central NY, but any showers will have a tough time making it east of I81.

Bermuda high becomes established by the end of the weekend with warm southwest return flow bringing temperatures up into 80s on Sunday and possibly upper 80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday. NBM temperatures continue to be warmer than surrounding guidance, therefore made slight adjustments to bring temperatures down a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are in good agreement that a cold front will push into the region sometime on Wednesday. However, there could be a few isolated Tuesday on the periphery of the high, but thunderstorm coverage will turn more widespread Wednesday with the approaching front. How strong the instability will be is still somewhat questionable due to timing differences of frontal passage, but if everything aligns, can't rule out the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Some valley fog has developed, mainly impacting RME and ELM. RME shows more consistent improvement than ELM, but with low level winds increasing through the early morning, this should help mix out the fog soon after 12z. Winds become southwesterly later this morning with gusts of 15-20 knots expected into the early afternoon. Locally stronger wind gusts are possible after 18Z. With an approaching system, a few terminals are trending MVFR/Fuel Alt cigs after 00z tomorrow.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm late Saturday into Sunday, which may result in brief restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.