textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances were increased slightly for a weak front that moves through late tonight/early Saturday morning. Precipitation chances were also increased Saturday night into Sunday morning for a stronger front that will bring widespread snow showers to the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will keep conditions mild and dry through the start of the weekend.

2) A strong cold front will move through the region late Saturday night with widespread snow showers. Below average temperatures are expected through early next week.

3) The pattern will remain active throughout the rest of the week as multiple systems will pass through the region. Temperatures will trend warmer through the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will remain in place today as well as through the start of the weekend. Today will be pleasant for February standards as skies will be sunny and most will see highs in the 40s. Those in the Tug Hill Plateau and some higher elevations will be stuck in the 30s. Temperatures tonight then fall into the 20s and 30s overnight. A weak front will approach the region late tonight/early Saturday morning. This system will have to overcome dry air in place for precipitation to occur. Some of the CAMs hang onto a band of precipitation as the front moves through, though most guidance favor drier conditions. The best chances for rain and rain/snow mix will be across north-central NY including northern ares of the Finger Lakes and up through the Tug Hill Plateau. Where skies can clear on Saturday, high temperatures will be near or even above 50. Elsewhere, temperatures will climb into the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A stronger cold front will drop into the region Saturday night and continue to pass through Sunday morning. This front will bring widespread accumulating snowfall to the region, though amounts will be light. There is some uncertainties with this front such as timing and precipitation amounts. Solutions such as the GFS have a wider footprint of higher QPF amounts and are slower compared to most other guidance. Due to this, the NBM guidance is also higher than most guidance. With that in mind, QPF was lowered by blending in Consall guidance with the NBM. With lower QPF, this forecast has between 1 and 3 inches for most of the region, most of this falling before Sunday afternoon.

Following the front, northwesterly flow will support some light lake effect snow showers though these will be short-lived as high pressure returns. Temperatures will be significantly colder compared to the days leading up to the front. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 20s and low 30s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the single digits and teens. Winds will be gusty along and behind the front which will then result in wind chills of -5 to 10 Sunday night/Monday morning. Winds will be calmer Monday night, so wind chills are not expected to be as cold but will still be around zero in the higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The pattern will remain quite active through next week. Zonal flow will allow a low to slide east Tuesday. Drifting slightly northward, a warm front will approach the region. The track of the low will be then have an influence on what precipitation types are observed. If this low tracks more north, warmer conditions would favor more rain though there would also likely be an axis of a wintry mix that could include freezing rain. A more southern track will favor more snow and potentially widespread snowfall accumulations. With these uncertainties, the forecast leans on NBM guidance for temperatures and timing of this event. A rain/snow mix is used for any areas where a wintry mix would be possible.

The pattern becomes more favorable for milder conditions after this system slides east on Wednesday. A weak ridge builds over the eastern half of CONUS. Temperatures will then trend warmer through the second half of the week as highs in the 40s return on Wednesday. High pressure will briefly keep conditions dry but the next system moves in Thursday with a chances for precipitation through at least the end of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue all terminals through the 18Z TAF period. Toward the later half of the TAF period, another disturbance will approach with an increase in clouds and a slight chance of showers toward 12Z, mainly for KSYR, KRME and KITH.

Southwesterly winds at 850mb will increase later tonight into early Saturday morning which will result in the development of LLWS, strongest at the NY terminals averaging 40 to 45 knots. KITH-KELM-KRME-KSYR are the most likely to see SWerly LLWS develop prior to 06Z, while KBGM-KAVP will see LLWS develop around 06Z-10Z.

Outlook:

Saturday...Front passes with possible minor ceiling restrictions forming for KSYR-KRME-KITH; still mainly VFR elsewhere.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Occasional restrictions possible as a couple waves move through with snow showers.

Monday through Monday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance of snow showers during the day Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Chance for rain/snow showers and associated restrictions, especially later Tuesday into Wednesday

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.