textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week and spotty showers will be possible ahead of a slow moving cold front that will bring widespread rain to the region.

2) After the frontal system moves through midweek, temperatures will be below normal as the pattern will remain fairly active into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

While conditions remain quite dry this afternoon thanks to high pressure, a couple of weak waves will kick off spotty showers across north-central NY later today and tonight. These showers will be light and will not amount to much. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control through at least Monday. With milder air in place, low temperatures will only be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. If any frost can develop, it will be patchy and limited to the higher elevations of the Catskills.

Temperatures will trend warmer to start the work week, climbing into the 60s and low 70s for Monday with mostly to partly sunny skies. Winds will remain breezy with a tight pressure gradient overhead. Gusts will generally be 20 to 25 mph but could occasionally be higher. Weak waves moving through the area will kickoff spotty showers Monday night into Tuesday morning. Models show limited instability and some shear, so isolated non-severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Temperatures will fall into the 40s and 50s.

A slow-moving cold front will approach the region early Tuesday and will briefly stall out. This will keep the highest precipitation chances strung across northern and western NY while areas more south and east are likely to stay mainly dry through at least the daytime hours, possibly even later. Being in the warm sector of this system, MLCAPE values are modeled at 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear of at least 30 kts. Lapse rates are also fairly steep at 6 to 7 C/km suggesting the potential for strong storms. The uncertainty is if anything will fire off ahead of the front or if the front will move in quick enough to take advantage of these conditions. For now, SPC keeps us in general thunder and given this uncertainty, that seems to be a fair assessment. As mentioned, the region will be in the warm sector of this system and the temperatures will certainly reflect that as they climb into the 70s and even low 80s. The rain will become a bit more widespread as the front finally begins to dip into the region overnight. With colder air quick to fill in behind the front, there will end up being a sharp temperature gradient with lows ranging from the mid 40s in north-central NY to upper 50s in Northeast PA.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The second half of the week will be colder than normal, and the pattern remains active with multiple chances for rain showers. Rain will continue Wednesday as the front inches through the region. Conditions will slowly begin to dry from the northwest late in the day. Much colder air will continue to fill in behind the departing front, so temperatures are not expected to rebound much, if at all, from Tuesday night to Wednesday. The front exits the region Wednesday night but additional rain is then expected Thursday as a coastal system impacts the Northeast. A ridge begins to build over Western CONUS during the second half of the week, leading to a deepening trough over Eastern CONUS. This will keep temperatures below normal through next weekend. Off-and-on showers will also be possible Friday and Saturday as multiple weak waves embedded within the trough pass through. Some uncertainty remains for the second half of the weekend as some guidance favor the return of high pressure and dry conditions while others keep rain present

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through today and tonight under high pressure. Gusty west-northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening, then return tomorrow afternoon out of the southwest. LLWS is possible tonight from 06-12Z across central NY terminals.

Outlook:

Monday... Mainly VFR, but restrictions will be possible at times in isolated to scattered showers on Monday.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...Lingering chances for showers and restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.