textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fire weather concerns have become a bit more apparent for Thursday, especially during the afternoon. Min RH values between 20 and 35 percent will be present, along with breezy conditions (peak wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph), plenty of sunshine, and above normal temperatures (highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s).

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong and dry high pressure will bring dry weather through Friday morning, along with a warming trend.

2) A cold front with limited moisture will pass through on Friday, which will bring some rain showers to the area and slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday. Conditions warm back up for the second half of the weekend and especially into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will continue to be in control over our region through Thursday. This will bring plenty of sunshine to the area. This high moves east of the area on Thursday, which will result in a southerly return flow and therefore warmer temperatures (highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s). Temperatures will be even warmer on Friday (highs in the lower 60s to near 70 degrees).

Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient between this departing high pressure system and an area of low pressure centered north of the Great Lakes Region will result in breezy conditions, especially during the afternoon during peak heating/peak mixing. These wind gusts are expected to be sub- advisory, but still in the 25-35 mph range for parts of the Finger Lakes Region and 20-30 mph range elsewhere.

In addition, as is common for this time of the year/pre-greenup, the combination of low RH, gusty winds, and drying fine fuels will result in the potential for wildfire spread. See the Fire Weather section of this AFD for more details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front will move through the region on Friday, which will bring rain showers to the area, particularly during the afternoon. Rain totals should be manageable with amounts mainly less than 0.25" (perhaps up to 0.50" for the Mohawk Valley).

The relatively weak cold front front will bring cooler temperatures to the area on Saturday (highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s), but this will be short-lived as a southerly return flow comes back on Sunday and persists into next week. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s, before widespread 70s are expected on Monday and Tuesday. Some of the usual warmer spots (the valleys and the lake plain areas) could even reach 80 degrees, especially on Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

With high pressure in control, conditions will be VFR over the next 24 hours. Winds will gradually increase tonight with the strongest winds forecasted Thursday afternoon. Peak gusts will be 25 to 30 kts. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) of 35 to 40 kts up to FL020 is possible at ELM, SYR, and ITH between 04 and 13z. Guidance backed off on LLWS at RME and forecast soundings do not support keeping it in the TAFs, so it was removed with this update.

Outlook:

Thursday night through Friday morning...VFR conditions.

Friday afternoon through Friday night...A front will dip into the region with a chance of rain showers and associated restrictions, especially the NY terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday... Frontal system approaches the region with restrictions possible.

FIRE WEATHER

The combination of dry fine fuels, southerly wind gusts of to 20 to 30 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 20 to 35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk for fire spread on Thursday for the Leatherstocking Region in Central New York and Northeast PA.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ208.