textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were raised early this morning with the thick mid and high level cloud deck in place. Cloud cover was also increased for much of today, especially from the Twin Tiers northward.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Pleasantly warm conditions continue for much of the week. Isolated to scattered showers are expected today for portions of Central NY.

2) A frontal system will bring rain to the region Thursday. Additional disturbances will keep showers around through at least the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level ridge continues to strengthen across the eastern U.S. today into Wednesday with southwesterly flow advecting in unseasonably warm air. Wednesday is expected to be when the peak of the warmth occurs this week with highs reaching the lower and mid 70s.

Moisture associated with an area of low pressure currently over the Midwest is advecting east along the northern periphery of the upper ridge resulting in a thick deck of mid and high level clouds early this morning. These clouds are expected to stick around much of the day, so sky cover was increased from the NBM, resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions. The tail end of a warm front associated with this system will lift north of the region today. This front is expected to lead to isolated to scattered showers through the afternoon, mainly north of the Southern Tier. Most of higher res. guidance continues to show this activity while the NBM remains largely dry, so the previous forecast, CONSShort and CONSAll were blended in to increase coverage of slight chance PoPs. Model soundings also continue to show a pocket of dry air near the surface, so precipitation is expected to be pretty light.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The latter half of the week will become more active as multiple disturbances bring rain to the region. The low pressure system currently over the Midwest will propagate into the Great Lakes region. As it does, this will push a frontal boundary through with rain arriving early Thursday morning. PWATs look to peak around 1.40 to 1.50 inches, but this system has trended more progressive and as a result, QPF amounts have trended down. So while this will be welcome rain, rainfall totals look to be anywhere from about a tenth to locally 0.30-0.40 of an inch in spots. Instability will be limited, with some guidance hinting at 200-300 J/kg of MUCAPE possible, especially toward the Poconos and southern Catskills, but with higher shear present, an isolated thunderstorm or two may be possible.

A slot of dry air fills in behind the front. However, an upper level trough is trailing this system and will support additional showers Friday and Saturday as wraparound moisture nudges in from the north. While there is some uncertainty on how long the showers will last this weekend, high pressure does look to start nosing back in later in the day Sunday. With northwesterly flow returning Saturday into Sunday, high temperatures do trend back down into the 50s and lower 60s, but will still be running slightly above average.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected for all terminals but SYR and RME. A weak front is moving through this morning that could cause some MVFR cigs at SYR and RME as the front picks up a bit of lake moisture. Some fog may form tonight in the valleys so a tempo has been added to ELM.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers may bring occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.