textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made to the previous forecast. Minor adjustments to cloud cover and PoPs this afternoon and early evening were made. Fog was added to the forecast Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures are trending warmer for Wednesday next week out ahead of an incoming front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near average temperatures and drier this weekend into early next week.

2) Mid next week there is the potential for a stronger area of low pressure to pass north of the Great Lakes and bring a seasonably strong cold front through Wednesday night or Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A nearly stationary upper level low centered over the Canadian Maritimes will bring cooler air aloft today. Shortwaves rotating around the western edge of this low will drop down through southern Quebec and into northeastern NY/New England later this afternoon and evening. These weak features will interact with some residual moisture, which could result in a couple of isolated to scattered showers developing in the afternoon, mainly over the Catskills and higher elevations of Central NY. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny today and north winds a little breezy between 7 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler, but near average for early September.

Then, for Sunday through Tuesday surface high pressure builds in likely keeping the region dry and mostly sunny. Daytime highs will be right around seasonable averages with morning fog developing in the valleys. It will be quite cool Sunday night, with good radiational cooling conditions. Lows are forecast to dip down into the mid-40s to low 50s in most locations, a few areas could be even cooler in the low 40s early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper level ridging amplifies over the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This will bring a deep, moist southwesterly flow to the region. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will have a deeper shortwave trough progressing through the Northern Tier of the US. Ensemble member MSLP means and low pressure centers are hinting at a stronger surface low developing and passing well north of the Great Lakes. With most of the ensemble members keeping the low to the north, not much precipitation is anticipated outside of when the cold front moves through. The exact timing of the cold front remains uncertain, but is likely to be sometime between early Wednesday evening and midday Thursday. Deterministic models do have a stream of higher PWATs and dew points advecting north ahead of the front so depending on timing of the fronts passage, there could be some stronger storms along it, producing some heavy rain and gusty winds. Temperatures look to warm into the 80s on Wednesday out ahead of the front, then cooling back into the 70s on Thursday, and eventually in the mid-60s to low 70s by Friday for daytime highs. It will be quite humid on Wednesday, with dew points likely to be in the mid-60s to low 70s. Dew points fall through the 60s on Thursday and become much more refreshing in the 50s by Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are currently present across the region. It was a little more cloudy this evening than expected, which has slowed cooling tonight. More clouds are expected to roll off Lake America into CNY as the night progresses, which will continue to hinder cooling and limit fog development at most terminals. ELM currently looks like the best spot for IFR and lower restrictions due to fog as clear skies are expected to remain here through much of the night. Temps will need to cool a few more degrees to get fog to develop, but the clear skies overhead and calm winds should allow for this to occur. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning and remain this way through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible early each day.

Wednesday...Potential cold front passage with wind shift and showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.