textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures were lowered slightly for Saturday and Saturday night. Otherwise, there were no significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures rebound today before a cold front drops in late today bringing rain showers and cooler temperatures.

2) An upper level blocking pattern will be in place for the weekend and much of next week, keeping conditions slightly cooler than normal.

3) The blocking pattern erodes late next week, leading to warmer and drier conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures will rebound back into the 70s today but the warmth will be short lived as a cold front drops in later this afternoon. Scattered showers will develop ahead and along the front by mid- afternoon over north-central NY. The front, along with the showers, will drift south throughout the late afternoon and evening hours before exiting the region overnight. Short range guidance was added to this forecast to increase PoPs as the NBM looked too low at times. Models are showing 100-200 J/kg of CAPE with high shear values, mainly over the Mohawk Valley and Tug Hill Plateau. Given this, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms. The pressure gradient along the front and surrounding it's associated low will lead to gusty winds once again and into the start of the weekend. Peak gusts are expected to exceed 30 mph for many locations and could exceed 40 mph for the higher elevations. Similarly to past updates, winds and gusts were increased with help from Conshort and HRRR guidance. Cloudy skies tonight will help limit cooling as low will be in the 40s tonight.

Northerly flow will advect in cooler air to start the weekend with a pocket of sub-zero 850mb air briefly passing overhead. With the strongest gusts expected Saturday morning, it may feel slightly blustery to start the day. Temperatures will struggle to climb, only maxing out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Clear skies and cooler air overhead will lead to temperatures falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With the aforementioned cold front passing through, an upper level Omega blocking pattern will begin to take shape with a trough remaining present over the Northeast throughout the weekend and into next week. This will keep conditions close to or even slightly cooler than normal with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s. An upper low will drop south within the trough early next week. Exactly where this sets up will depend on how much of the region will observe off-and-on rain showers during this time. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may be possible Monday and Tuesday, though most model guidance have little to no instability. Despite the low drifting east some by midweek, low chances for showers will remain in the forecast given some uncertainty in guidance on the low's location.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By Thursday, the ridge over the Central US will flatten and the low over the Northeast will continue to slide eastward, leading to the Omega block eroding. This will then result in warmer and drier conditions for the second half of the work week as surface high pressure builds in. Moisture will increase on Friday and weak waves will also be present, possibly leading to some showers though guidance remains mixed on timing and coverage.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. West- northwesterly wind gusts increase going into the mid- to late- morning, then decrease around 00Z, before increasing again around 04/05Z. Chances for light scattered rain showers are possible after 00Z, but confidence for restrictions to occur are low currently.

Outlook:

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR; potential for afternoon showers that could cause restrictions.

Tuesday... A chance for more showers and some restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.