textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated temperatures and thunderstorm chances through the holiday weekend. Rain chances increased and temperatures lowered early next week as confidence in coastal low increases.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through Saturday.

2) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected for the holiday weekend. Some storms may be strong to severe on Friday and Saturday.

3) Coastal low with several rounds of showers and locally heavy downpours Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Little change from the past few days with the airmass in the region. Once again we should see high temperatures get well into the 90's. Plenty of humidity once again will life peak heat index values into the 100 to locally 110 degree range. A cold frontal boundary is still modeled later Friday and Saturday. This should shave a few degrees off the temperatures on Saturday. Depending on cloud cover, heat advisory criteria may be met in NE PA. However, too much uncertainity is present at this time to issue another headline for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold frontal boundary should start to slowly sag southward later today through Saturday. Mose of the mesoscale modeling indicates several clusters of thunderstorms moving through the region. Of course, timing and locations still vary. It looks like the highest chances will be in the late afternoon and evening. Modeled soundings do show a high potential for the storms to have gusty and locally damaging winds. This is shown with inverted V signals and steep low level rates along with CAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/KG. Modest 0-6KM bulk shear of around 30 knots should allow the thunderstorms to organize into clusters.

Additional showers and thunderstorms should develop along the frontal boundary Saturday. While bulk shear should remain modest instability should trend downward keeping any severe threat more limited compared to Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The cold front looks to south of the region early next week. However, several waves of low pressure should ride along the front surging moisture northward into the region. Modeled PW values increase to about 2 inches for a time Monday into Tuesday. This indicates the potential for heavy downpours. Overall, a fairly robust ensemble signal for 1-3 inches of rain is showing up as well in this timeframe. Suspect high temperatures will continue to trend cooler early next week given expected clouds, rain and an easterly-southeasterly flow.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this taf period. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly between 20z and 02z; these could bring brief restrictions to our taf sites. Winds are light and variable under 5 kts through mid-morning.

Westerly winds are expected to increase by late morning into the afternoon with gusts up around 20 knots. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected to return later this afternoon and evening. Continued with PROB30 groups for TSRA at all taf sites, between 20z to 02z this afternoon and evening. These storms have the potential to produce heavy downpours, IFR or lower visibility, frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Isolated hail could also occur in the strongest storms.

Conditions should then become mainly VFR again by late evening into the overnight hours.

Outlook:

Saturday through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for additional showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Current high temperatures forecasted for today 7/3 are about 1-3 degrees below record values.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.