textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances of precipitation were expanded in spacial and temporal coverage tomorrow with the wrap around precipitation. Early next weeks high temperatures were coordinated with WPC to lower them to not have widespread 90s with increase in potential cloud cover.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front moves through this afternoon and evening with a threat of some stronger storms with gusty winds in the Finger Lakes into the western Twin Tiers. Cool weather and wrap around precipitation continues through tomorrow.

2) Warm up begins this weekend with a large scale pattern shift, high temperatures climb into the 80s and perhaps a few areas to reach the 90s early next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES 1...

Rain and clouds have persisted along I-81 and east, though the Finger Lakes into the western Southern Tier have seen clearing with temperatures warming into the 60s. A line of thunderstorms have developed along the cold front with a few strong gusts of over 50 mph that have been observed on the NYSM. Confidence has increased that the storms will be able to hold together into the Finger Lakes down towards Bradford County in PA where temperatures have risen into the 60s. Another indication that the atmosphere has become more unstable is the stable wave clouds in place this morning have given way to cumulus clouds. Surface based CAPE has risen to 500 to 1000 J/kg with effective bulk shear around 30 knots. Parameters are on the low end for severe but isolated gusts of 50 to 60 mph are possible.

Once the front is through, a coastal low develops near Southern New England tonight into tomorrow. As this low deepens, wrap around moisture keeps clouds and rain showers around tomorrow for most of the region. Terrain enhancement in the Catskills could lead to a few areas to get near an inch of rain though most of the area will just see intermittent light rain showers. Chances of precipitation were expanded through the morning into the early afternoon to cover this wrap around precip.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The long wave trough that has been persistent over the last several weeks will break down this weekend with flow becoming more zonal and even some ridging by the end of the weekend. 850 mb temperatures go from around freezing up to over 10C by Saturday night and even approaching 20C Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures in the 80s are likely next week and perhaps some 90 degree readings in the Wyoming Valley. RH fields aloft have trended a little more saturated so clouds are uncertain so decided to back off from original forecast highs Monday and Tuesday and dropped them 3 to 5 degrees from previous forecast. Lower elevations are on the drier side so despite the much warmer temperatures, dew points remain in the 50s to low 60s helping to keep heat indices in check.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A cold front will be pushing through the region early this evening. At this time, confidence for thunderstorms on station is highest at ITH and ELM, but elsewhere, confidence is too low to put into the forecast at this time and any storms will be handled with amendments. Winds will be gusty at times this afternoon out of the south and winds will be erratic in showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, wind will turn light and variable overnight. Fog and low stratus may develop late tonight, but forecast confidence in timing and intensity is low, with ELM the most likely site to see IFR restrictions from fog.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Isolated to scattered showers with occasional restrictions possible.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.