textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added more fog in tonight with the rain and low cloud ceilings, mainly focused more on higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain will move into the area this afternoon and become more widespread this evening, before tapering off Thursday morning.

2) A cool airmass settles into place late this week through the weekend, which will lead to below normal temperatures, scattered showers, and the possibility for frost or freezing temperatures during the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure is working its way into the Northeast today with a broad area of rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall this afternoon and tonight could be heavy at times, though instantaneous rates should remain below an inch per hour and likely closer to a half inch per hour. Total rainfall will be around an inch area wide, which is low enough that we are not expecting any flooding concerns. The center of the low passes through our region between 2 am and 6 am with rainfall tapering off by sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A long wave trough sets up over the region as high latitude blocking develops, keeping the long wave trough over our region from the weekend into next week. 850 mb temperatures fall to around -5C Friday night so there is a small chance of some snow showers across higher terrain of CNY into the Catskills. It will be dependent on rain showers lasting after dark with the loss of day time heating. At least a slight chance of precipitation has been added to each afternoon Friday through Sunday to account for destabilization from the cold air aloft coupled with the strong May sun. Overnight lows will be in the mid to low 30s so with the Wyoming Valley and the Finger Lakes region entering their growing season, frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed at some point this weekend into early next week. There is a chance that some weak ridging tries to build in briefly mid next week but many ensemble members keep 850 mb temperatures near or below freezing.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MVFR ceilings will continue over all TAF sites and even lower to IFR with some rain showers by early evening. While the exact timing is still a bit uncertain, ceilings should lift back to VFR during the morning hours Thursday. A wind shift from southerly to northwesterly is also expected this evening into the overnight.

Outlook:

Thursday through Monday... Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.