textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Falling temperatures early this morning may cause patchy ice to form where roads are still wet for Central New York and the Northern Tier of Pennsylvania, with spotty freezing drizzle or flurries also possible.

2) Colder conditions are anticipated today through tonight, with gusty winds and occasional light lake effect snow showers over the Finger Lakes region through this evening.

3) After warming temperatures through midweek, our next main round of rain is expected Thursday into early Friday, possibly ending as mixed rain and snow with colder air returning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A front has pressed to our south, but forced ascent is still occurring behind it courtesy of the right entrance region of an upper jet early this morning. One final wave of rain will carry through primarily Northeast PA and bordering counties in NY before dawn. However, cold air advection continues near the surface, underneath the translating wave. The back edge of rain could mix with flurries or brief light freezing rain. Even as precipitation stops, wet roadways could develop patchy ice as temperatures eclipse the freezing mark, especially Central New York to the Northern Tier of Pennsylvania. Spotty freezing drizzle could also occur as deeper moisture exits yet saturated conditions continue within the boundary layer. Higher elevations, and exposed surfaces like bridges and overpasses, will be more prone to seeing patchy ice. With the stronger daylight of late March, patchy ice concerns will quickly abate as morning carries on.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold conditions are anticipated today through Tuesday morning, as temperatures hold in the 30s to lower 40s during the day under a stubborn cloud deck, followed by 20s for tonight; even upper teens in Northern Oneida County. The 850mb low moves off the coast while a ridge approaches from our west. This set up favors somewhat gusty northwest winds today through this evening, with 850mb temperatures around -10 degrees Celsius kicking off a minor lake response. Scattered lake effect snow showers, mainly west of I-81 in the Finger Lakes region, will not amount to much more than a dusting as the moisture layer will be quite shallow. Gusts will typically reach 15-25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures trend warmer across the midweek period, only to flip chilly again by Friday-Saturday after another rainy frontal passage. The air mass will still be on the chilly side Tuesday, starting off well below freezing, yet a good deal of sunshine under high pressure will moderate temperatures into the upper 30s-upper 40s range. We then get into return flow which will boost us into upper 40s-mid 50s Wednesday, and even 50s-lower 60s Thursday. However, a frontal zone is projected to move through the region late Thursday into early Friday. There remains uncertainty in the details, with shortwaves and eventual main low pressure wave translating through the frontal zone. Timing and placement of those will determine both precipitation chances while better solidifying temperature details. In the end, a primary batch of rain is anticipated in the late Thursday-early Friday timeframe, possibly ending as mix of rain and snow with cold air advecting back in behind the cold front. Below normal temperatures are then figured Friday into the weekend from a Canadian air mass.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Restrictions are mainly Fuel Alt to MVFR currently, though some IFR fog/ceilings are hanging on at BGM and AVP. Conditions will slowly improve today but lake clouds will likely keep restrictions around longer at BGM, SYR, and ITH. After 00z, all terminals will become VFR. As mentioned in the previous update, scattered snow showers will be possible in Central NY this evening and tonight. Mention of snow was added to ITH, SYR, and BGM though it remains uncertain if these narrow bands will impact any of these terminals. If they do, then visibilities will likely be reduced.

Northwesterly winds will pick up this morning and be strongest during the afternoon hours. Peak gusts of 15 to 25 kts are expected. For most terminals, winds will become calmer tonight.

Outlook:

Tuesday...High pressure across the Northeast with mainly VFR conditions.

Wednesday...Cold front begins to move in late from the north with rain showers as well as potential restrictions.

Thursday...Warm front pushes up from the southwest with rain showers and restrictions possible. Rain changes over to snow overnight.

Friday...Some lingering snow showers and restrictions possible before high pressure builds in Saturday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.