textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added chances of rain showers late tonight into tomorrow morning along the I90 corridor into Rome NY for potential lake effect rain showers post cold front. Temperatures tomorrow night were lowered below model guidance with clear and calm conditions expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for a few severe thunderstorms forming along a cold front passage this afternoon into the early evening.

2) Cooler, fall like pattern returns early this week before a gradual warm up into next weekend, becoming slightly more unsettled late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clouds this morning have scattered out a few hours earlier than forecast so temperatures have warmed quicker. This has allowed higher values of surface based CAPE to develop already, with values approaching 1500 J/kg in western NY already. Storms that have formed south of the lake have struggled to maintain themselves so far despite 40 to 45 knots of bulk shear but that may be because of some mid level stability. Continued day time heating over the next hour or two will allow for enough instability to overcome the stable layer. Hodographs are fairly strait so that would mainly support hail and damaging wind gusts with any of the stronger storms.

With the dry air aloft, temperatures cool quickly towards sunset so storms will likely become more elevated and weaken after 7 pm as the surface instability wanes. The Finger Lakes region has the best chance for the severe storms later today. NEPA will have the front passage too late at night so while a few rumbles of thunder is possible, it will mostly be light to moderate rain showers overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Tomorrow will be one of the cooler days since May behind the cold front and persistent northerly flow all day with highs in the low to mid 60s. High pressure building in will cause winds to subside quickly in the afternoon with efficient radiational cooling tomorrow night. Lows were lowered below NBM with some areas of the Catskills and Tug Hill falling into the upper 30s. If dew points can mix lower tomorrow afternoon, there is a low potential (<10%) of patchy frost in Northern Oneida county.

Upper level ridging nudges back in Wednesday into the end of the week with temperatures gradually warming back to near to slightly above normal. With the weak warm air advection and being on the northern edge of a ridge means there could be a few showers and thunderstorms to deal with late week into the weekend as shortwaves propagate over the top of the ridge.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A cold front is expected to bring storms across Central NY and NE PA this afternoon into early evening. PROB30 groups have been replaced with TEMPOs, with a shorter timeframe to capture potential timing at each terminal.

Fog development is becoming unlikely, with only a TEMPO group for MVFR potential at ELM. The incoming cold front will bring winds to inhibit deep fog.

Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the majority of the time at each terminal.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Potential restrictions with front trying to make its way into the region.

Friday...Lingering restrictions possible with recent passing of a front.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.