textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Upgraded the extreme heat watch to a warning for Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity becomes unhealthy and dangerous in some areas for the rest of this week.

2) Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms could occur through the week and into the weekend. Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible within the favorable warm and humid conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build northward through the region over the next couple of days. Humidity will also increase a bit as well with the moist west-southwest flow. Modeled 925 mb temperatures and ensemble guidance are in fairly good agreement of what the high temperatures could end up being each day through Friday. Overall, the recent NBM biases appear to have reduced as well which increases the confidence in the forecast for a dangerously hot and humid period through Friday.

Most locations should get into the low and mid 90's today, coupled with the humidity this should get the top heat index values above 100 to locally 110 degrees this afternoon. Thursday looks like the warmest day with indications a few locations may hit 100 degrees for the high temperature. Temperatures then should drop slightly Friday. Modeling shows a cold front bringing potential relief to the heat wave by the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Modeling has had a poor handle on thunderstorm coverage and location over the past day or two. An MCS complex is currently moving southward toward the NY Thruway corridor. Given a more stable environment ahead of it the convection should decrease through the overnight hours. Additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms should develop on the edges of the high pressure ridge tracking from the Great Lakes and Canada toward northern portions of our region. With the ridge building northward and increasing 700mb temperatures between 11-13C by Thursday thunderstorm coverage overall should be less than what the NBM has. However, will continue to monitor trends for any additional MCS complexes. A cold front looks to sag south into the region for the weekend increasing the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A line of showers and storms is currently moving into the area from the north. This will impact SYR and RME between 06z and 07z, changing to rain showers for a few hours after the storms move through. Uncertainty remains as to how far south the line will hold together as it moves into a much more stable airmass. It could provide some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder at ITH, but confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAF. ITH currently has IFR fog that should remain through the night thanks to rain that fell earlier this evening.

Another afternoon of isolated thunderstorms is expected with the possibility of another line of showers and storms moving through late in the evening to overnight hours. But with model guidance widely varied, confidence was not high enough to include storms in any of the TAFs at this time.

Outlook:

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

CLIMATE

Current High Temperature Records:

7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018) 7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/1 and 7/2 are at or just over the daily records.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057- 062.