textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances adjusted Monday for lake effect rain showers over north central NY.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry this morning, with periods of rain showers expected for portions of the region this afternoon and tonight, followed by lake effect rain showers on Monday.

2) Much cooler weather arrives early this week, with widespread frost possible Monday and Tuesday nights before warmer conditions return midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure sits to our east this morning, with mostly clear skies to start the day. Clouds will gradually increase from west to east as a system passes to our north and south. The first wave will bring a chance for light rain showers to northeast PA this afternoon, while a second wave brings additional showers to north central NY this evening. Isolated showers may also develop across the Finger Lakes and portions of the Southern Tier between these features. The better chance for widespread rain showers arrives late tonight into Monday morning as low pressure drags a cold front through the region. Cold air advection behind the front will then allow lake effect rain showers to develop across north central NY Monday. These showers may linger into the early afternoon before high pressure building in from the west brings drier conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure settles back into the region Monday night, bringing northwesterly flow and a cooler air mass. With 850 mb temperatures falling to around 0 degrees C, highs Monday and Tuesday will only reach the 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night will fall into the mid to upper 30s, with portions of northern Oneida county dropping below freezing. Frost has been introduced across much of the area, with these two nights potentially brining the first widespread frost of the fall season. By Wednesday morning, the ridge axis and surface high will shift east of the region, allowing southerly flow to return and usher in warmer more moist air. Temperatures should return to near normal for the remainder of the week, with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions through the morning today, except for IFR to LIFR VSBYs due to fog at ELM. Increasing clouds and lowering bases through the morning will bring lowering CIGs that will reach lower end VFR to upper end MVFR by the early to mid afternoon. Winds will increase with gusts out of the southeast around 15 to 20 kts for the morning into afternoon today. A couple of showers will be possible for AVP this afternoon.

Tonight, borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs early will increase to mainly VFR for the NY terminals during the first half of the night. MVFR is expected to remain at AVP. This is due to the closer proximity of a passing sfc low to AVP. Clouds will be quicker to go VFR for the northern terminals, while ELM/ITH/BGM taking a bit longer into the evening as the cloud shield with the lower clouds shifts east. CIGs will lower back to MVFR and possibly toward IFR briefly as a cold front crosses the area during the second half of the night and toward daybreak on Monday morning. A few showers will be possible (especially for the northern terminals) during the second half of the night tonight as the cold front tracks across the area.

Outlook...

Monday...some lake showers may cause reductions to northern terminals, but otherwise mainly VFR conditions expected.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.