textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A somewhat cool and occasionally showery weather pattern continues.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak frontal system will push through today with enough lift for a few spotty showers early. High pressure then will nose into the region Thursday providing a brief break from any showers. A warm front tries to push into the area Friday with the main low pressure system bringing another round of showers later Friday into Saturday. Sunday and Monday should end up fairly quiet before another system with showers moves through the region Tuesday of next week.

Overall, ensemble agreement is fairly high throughout the entire forecast period. Typical timing uncertainties are present with particular features possibly shifting 12-24 hours in either direction past Friday.

High temperatures may need to be lowered a bit Saturday then again on Tuesday if clouds and showers end up being fairly widespread in the daylight. Most days with sunshine look to get into the 60's with showery days stuck in the 50's. Low temperatures look fairly uniform around 40. Did increase winds slightly on Thursday given an inverted V signature with model soundings. Still would only expect top gusts in the afternoon to be around 20 mph.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Scattered VFR showers continue tonight and should dissipate/slide east over the next few hours.

The big forecast question is what will ceilings do this morning into the afternoon. Guidance was not great with the onset of rain tonight, but it seems like the past few runs have gotten their act together and are more representative of current conditions. A warm front is going to move into the area from the west this morning and will overrun lingering cold air from the recent cold air outbreak. This will create and inversion that will trap moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere and allow for an MVFR cloud deck to develop around 12-13z, lasting into the late morning/early afternoon. Currently, SYR seems to be far enough to the NW of the inversion that conditions should remain VFR. The rest of our terminals should have to deal with MVFR ceilings until better mixing occurs this afternoon and skies scatter out.

Outlook:

Thursday... Mainly VFR conditions expected; patchy fog possible early.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible.

Saturday and Sunday...Showers and associated restrictions possible; low chance of thunder.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...None.