textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snowfall totals were decreased for most of the region. Winter weather advisory cancelled for portions of the Twin Tiers and the northern Tier of PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain early this morning changes to snow showers. A few icy spots and light snow accumulations still expected. Additional lake effect into Friday.

2) A round of snow showers. Coastal low trending westward Sunday and Monday. More chances for snow showers and lake effect throughout next week. Coldest air of the season so far possible as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface dewpoints have been too high for any changeover to snow for most areas so far early this morning. So we are relying on dynamical cooling which is a slow process given the light nature of the rain. Once the main low passes northeast of the region temperatures should drop into the 20's today resulting in rain changing to a period of snow showers for most of the region.A few slick spots are still possible for the morning commute. Portions of the Finger Lakes and in the favored lake effect areas still have the potential to get a few inches of snow. So, the advisory will continue for those areas. Typical westerly flow should keep some light lake effect snow going from the NY Thruway corridor northward into Friday with additional light snow accumulations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potent mid-level disturbance looks to track northeast from the Ohio Valley into the region Saturday. This should bring a round of snow showers with some light sub-advisory snowfall accumulations with it.

However, of more interest is model trends of increasing mid- level heights along the east coast and digging a stronger trough into the south. This results in the shift of the track of a northward moving surface low closer to the coast Sunday and Monday. Ensemble guidance does show a chance of accumulating snow from this, mainly near and east of I-81. It would not be surprising to see this feature continue to shift west on the modeling. However, the westward correction will be limited by another weak clipper in the northern branch.

Several different but mainly weak systems look to track through the region next week with some lake effect response as well. Details are still flip-floping a bit. However, the potential for the coldest air of the season so far appears to be increasing for next week with sub-zero wind chills possible. Would think our NBM guidance trends colder as this timeframe approaches.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Varying conditions will be in place across the area through much of the forecast period ranging from VFR to locally IFR or worse with a combination of ceiling and visibility restrictions. Scattered snow showers persist into early evening, especially across CNY. Around 00-01Z through about 05-06Z, some lake enhancement is expected around the northern terminals, in particular SYR, when visibility is expected to be at its lowest through the TAF period reaching LIFR restrictions.

Some guidance suggest a lake effect band may try to become more organized around 10-12Z tomorrow, but confidence is too low to cover for this at this time, but if one does become more organized, it can bring additional IFR restrictions to SYR.

Breezy west to northwest winds are expected to remain in place tonight and ease a little bit toward daybreak tomorrow. Frequent wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Friday night...Mainly VFR, although occasional restrictions possible at KRME and KSYR with some light snow showers.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers.

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially across Central NY.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ009-017- 018-036-037.