textproduct: Binghamton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track and no changes were made to the ongoing headlines. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all of Central NY and Northeast PA, and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Seneca, Tompkins, Cortland, Onondaga, and southern Cayuga counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will bring in an arctic airmass this morning that will result in frigid temperatures and wind chills through the weekend. Lake effect snow showers are also expected across parts of Central NY.

2) A reprieve from the cold pattern is looking more likely by the middle of next week, with temperatures rising to closer to normal for this time of the year.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An arctic front is quickly ushering in frigid temperatures and wind chills. Temperatures will continue to rapidly fall from the lower to mid 20s that were present around midnight to near zero by dawn. Those temperatures will remain around or just above/below zero through the entire day today. Then lows between -15 degrees and 0 degrees are expected tonight/Sunday morning. Sunday's highs will be a few degrees "warmer," but still only in the single digits to lower teens.

The above mentioned temperatures itself are frigid enough, but gusty winds will result in wind chills that will be dangerously cold (-25 to -35 degrees). Extreme Cold Warnings remain in effect for all of Central NY and Northeast PA until 1PM Sunday.

In addition, winds today will occasional gust between 30-40 mph, with some gusts locally up to 50 mph (especially the hilltops/higher elevations of Northeast PA). The winds combined with a fresh coating of fluffy snow on the ground will also result in areas of blowing snow, which may cause significantly reduced visibilities at times.

Finally, the very cold airmass (850mb temperatures around -28C) combined with the gusty northwest flow, will result in lake effect snow showers through today and tonight. Snow will be relatively light most of the time with an additional 1-3 inches of snow possible for portions of the Finger Lakes Region. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7AM Sunday. While snow amounts will be rather light, the gusty winds will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow for those areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The "Siberian Express" pattern we have been in that has left us open to arctic air masses is finally getting cut off as a trough develops in Alaska and the western ridge becomes less amplified. There will still be some blocking in Greenland so that would limit the strength of ridging that is possible on the east coast but we should still see temperatures rise to near freezing and be closer to what we expect to see for mid February. While we will be warmer, the zonal flow will allow more moisture to get into the plains and with potential west coast troughing, the pattern would be favorable for some lee cyclogenesis in the front range of the Rockies. With the Greenland blocking keeping some cold air filtering in from the north, the precipitation type with any passing low is looking to be mostly snow with some mix. If a larger low can develop and cut into the Great Lakes, then a stronger warm up is possible and would need to be watched for ice jam potential.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Northwest wind gusts have been observed from 20-40 knots early this morning. More of the same is likely through today with gusts decreasing this evening. BLSN will cause a wide range of visibilities today, down to IFR at times. Uncertainity is high for timing the brief intervals of BLSN. Ceilings should mainly be MVFR with potential for variability to the VFR range today at times and to IFR tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday... Some restrictions from isolated snow showers and blowing snow.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday... Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for PAZ038-039-043- 044-047. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for PAZ040-048-072. NY...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ016>018- 025-044. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ046-057-062.