textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue through midweek with a slow warming trend.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday while temperatures continue their warming trend through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today - Wednesday: Dry and Warmer

The string of pleasant weather is set to continue over the next couple of days. As the omega block responsible for our recent string of dry weather starts to break down, the associated surface high will gradually drop south into the Great Lakes region into Wednesday, keeping conditions nice and dry across the area. Temperatures will be on a slow warming trend with weak shortwave ridging aloft. Highs both days should generally hold in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Thursday - Early Next Week: Shower/Storm Chances Return, Warmer Still

The recent dry trend is expected to finally come to a close by Thursday with a more active pattern looking to take over for the end of week/weekend timeframe. As the aforementioned surface high drops to our south and the shortwave ridging collapses, west to southwest flow aloft will come to prevail. The low on the west side of the previous omega block is expected to move east just north of the US/Canada border Wednesday into Thursday with a weak surface low expected to form across Western Ontario, near the International Falls region. While the cold front that extends from this surface low is not expected to be particularly strong, it will be more than enough to provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Gulf moisture will be on a large upswing across the Upper Midwest by late in the week with strong south/southwesterly low/mid level return flow on the back side of the departing high across the eastern seaboard. Precipitable water values along and ahead of the boundary will be pushing 150-200% of normal for this time of year (1.5+ inches). Due to the high moisture content for these showers and storms, the Weather Prediction Center has already included our area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for both Thursday and Friday. As the upper low tapers off, the boundary looks to potentially stall out across the region. Where this ultimately stalls out will provide a great focus for convection Friday and potentially into the weekend but there is still ample uncertainty in regards to the nature of that boundary.

There also looks to be some low potential for severe weather Friday. A shortwave trough is expected to move through the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday (after 00Z Saturday for the Driftless Region). With our area currently forecast to still be south of the frontal boundary, 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE could develop by Friday afternoon. Shear overall doesn't look particularly impressive for our area (20- 30 kts) as the better shear looks to be co-located with the shortwave passage. Machine learning guidance tends to keep the severe risk area to our west where the shortwave will be able to interact more readily with the ample instability but if the timing of this shortwave is quicker than current forecasts, that area could shift east. This will be something to keep an eye on over the coming days. Otherwise, expect warm temperatures in the 80s to continue through the week with a slow climb towards the weekend as upper level ridging sets up and anomalously warm 850 mb temps start to work their way into the region. Temperatures by the weekend could start flirting with the 90 degree mark, even with the continued, albeit low, rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with southeast winds of 5-10KT and FEW-SCT skies as high clouds stream into the region. The sky condition may vary to BKN through the period, especially west of the Mississippi River, but any ceilings will remain VFR.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.