textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures return Tuesday through the rest of the week, but how warm will be dependent on what areas have snow.

- The first of two mid-week winter systems moves through the region on Tuesday, bringing snowfall to the region. The main impacts will be north of I-94 where confidence in accumulating snowfall is greatest (60-80%).

- The second winter system moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. A lot of uncertainty remains with this system, but has the potential (40-50%) to bring more widespread snowfall impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Today - Monday: Cooler Temps Linger

Flurries ongoing through much of the day will slowly exit eastward this evening as the supporting upper trough dives southward and drier air shifts into the region associated an approaching surface-850hPa ridge axis.

Cooler temperatures linger Monday as said ridge axis propagates eastward across the region while the subsidence associated with this feature should lead to relatively quiet conditions. Temperatures begin to warm heading into Monday night on the backside of the low level ridge as winds become more southerly and warmer air advects into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

Tuesday: First Winter System

The first of the two mid-week winter systems develops Tuesday as a fairly subtle 700-500hPa shortwave trough dives into the Upper Midwest atop a flattening longwave ridge. This feature is progged to spur surface cyclogenesis across the northern Great Plains Monday night, with the resultant surface low shifting eastward across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin on Tuesday. Given the northerly track expected with this system, the greatest snow impacts should reside north of our area, but with some available moisture and warm advection across the region, precipitation is likely to develop north of I-94 (60-80%) resulting in some snow accumulations across north-central Wisconsin.

There is still some spread in the ensemble guidance regarding snowfall amounts for those in north-central Wisconsin, but the 25th-75th percentiles in the 22.13z NBM and 22.06z GEFS sit around 1-3 inches (assuming a 10:1 ratio, which is likely close to reality per the 22.13z NBM) with only a 10-20% chance to exceed 3 inches. The 22.06z EPS favors a slightly lower end solution, suggesting 1-2 inches at 10:1 in the 25th-75th percentiles.

There's also the potential for a period of light snow along the cold front associated with this wave as it swings through the region during the late morning to early afternoon Tuesday. Model soundings suggest saturation occurs for an hour or two along the front, which combined forcing from the upper wave and increasing 850-700hPa frontogenesis should promote a couple hours of snowfall towards I-90 (30-50% per the 22.13z NBM and 22.00z LREF).

Wednesday Night - Thursday: Second Winter System

The second winter system develops Wednesday across the northern Great Plains as secondary, deeper shortwave ejects off the Northern Rockies. Ensemble guidance depicts the accompanying surface cyclone that develops in response to the upper wave taking a more southerly track as compared to Tuesday's system, putting the Upper Mississippi River Valley on the northern side of the low and within the associated deformation zone. Global deterministic guidance also depicts a band of 850-700hPa frontogenesis on the northern side of the low, which combined with the aforementioned deformation zone sets the stage for a band of snowfall somewhere across/near the Upper Mississippi River Valley. However, the biggest question remains: where does the snow band set-up?

Overall, the 22.00z LREF and 22.06z AIGEFS/AIFS probabilities suggests the band of snow is most favorable generally from southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. Current probabilities for measurable precipitation within this region generally sit at 40-50%. However, venturing to look at the individual members of these ensemble solutions paints a picture that is riddled with latitudinal variation. Some members depict the snowband as far north as central Wisconsin and as far south as central Illinois. This makes it challenging to pinpoint an exact location of this band and the amounts within it this far out. Despite the variations, confidence in a period of efficient snowfall within a narrow band somewhere across/near the Upper Mississippi River Valley continues to increase.

Mid to Late Week: Near Normal Temperatures

A warming trend is depicted in the ensemble guidance mid to late week as warm air advects into the region associated with the clipper systems. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to what the temperatures will actually be owing to quite a bit of spread within the ensembles themselves, but the overall trend is towards temperatures warming to near or slightly above normal.

The main caveat to how warm temperatures can get by late week is how the mid-week clipper systems play out, specifically their influence on the snowpack. The 22.13z NBM continues to show a signal for temperatures south of I-90 to exceed 50 degrees for those with the least snowpack (30-50%), though most members in 22.06z GEFS/EPS suggests highs top out in the 30s to 40s. If the midweek systems bring more snow to those south of I-90, high temperatures will likely be tempered towards a cooler solution.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions currently present across the region. MVFR CIGs will gradually lift to VFR through the evening with VFR conditions to remain at the terminals through the remainder of the period. Winds will continue out of the northwest through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning, gradually on a downward trend to less than 10 kts by 12Z. Winds will then shift quickly to the south late in the period but will be light at less than 8 kts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.