textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of anomalous warmth ceases later in the weekend with cloudier and cooler conditions into early next week.

- Greater rainfall potential exists Monday into Tuesday (40-60%) though the heaviest rain amounts look to stay northwest of the area. Additional potential exists mid next week.

- Temperatures trend cooler next week, but look to remain above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Another Warm Day Today, Cloudier and Cooler Into Early Next Week:

After another day of anomalous warmth with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s, a persistently mostly cloudy and slightly cooler forecast expected through early next week. A narrow band of increased low level moisture along a lower level stretching axis of dilatation resides near and over the Upper Mississippi River Valley through Monday before a subsequent surge of return flow accompanying the upper level low eventually lifting through the Central Plains by midweek advects over the local forecast area.

For Saturday night, band of increased low level moisture looks to continue to remain largely to our north and west over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. With a cold front stalling to our northwest as well, a few showers may (20-40%) develop as upper shortwaves eject downstream from the upper low but any precip amounts will be very light.

Next Week: Greater Precipitation Potential, Trending Cooler

The stalled cold front begins to slowly sag southward late Sunday into early next week, allowing cooler air to filter into the region. There's still some uncertainty regarding what temperatures will ultimately be due to variations in how far south the boundary makes it and the influence from potential rainfall, but the 24.01z NBM mean suggests highs top out in the upper 50s to near 70.

Late Sunday into Monday, the cutoff low over the Desert Southwest begins to move northward, prompting a surface low to develop across the Great Plains. The various ensemble suites (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) appear to be in a bit better agreement about how these features evolve early next week though there is still some variation regarding the track of these features.

Currently, the ECMWF/Canadian suites suggest these features take a more northern trajectory resulting in lower rainfall amounts across our area whereas the GFS takes a more southerly track, bringing greater rainfall amounts to the Mississippi River Valley. That said, the GFS continues to trend towards an ECMWF/Canadian solution, so thinking that our western and northern counties will be the ones to see the bulk of any precipitation. Around 60% of the 23.12z LREF members favor this solution which is in agreement with the 24.01z NBM that suggests 30-50% probabilities for rainfall for these counties. Regardless, not expecting a washout by any means. Deterministic amounts range from 0.25-0.5 inches in the GFS/AIGFS and Euro/AIFS with some potential for amounts greater than 0.5 inches per the NBM, around 20%. However, given the favored northern track, the greatest potential for amounts higher than 0.5 inches exist across central Minnesota, out of our area.

Midweek, there's some modest agreement that a shortwave trough moves across the northern United States, phasing with a longwave trough across Canada. A surface low pressure system looks to develop across the Midwest in response to these features bringing some additional rainfall potential, currently a 20-40% chance per the 24.01z NBM, and possibly some breezy winds before high pressure and dry conditions return by late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A step upward in the generally southerly winds is expected Saturday afternoon with some gusts to 25-30 knots possible around RST. Very light rain may (10-30%) occur but reductions in flight rules are expected. While VFR, expect clouds in the 5-15 kft range.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.