textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warmth is expected through mid-week.

- Precipitation returns to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday (40-90%), primarily in the form of rain, but some snow (30-60%) and perhaps freezing rain (<10%) may mix in north of I-94. Breezy winds may accompany the precipitation with gusts of 45 mph possible (20-50%).

- Another system moves through the region Thursday and Friday, bringing additional precipitation potential (30-50%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today

Upper level ridging builds back into the region today on backside of a shortwave trough shifting through the region this morning. Another warm day is in store as this ridge builds back in, with highs expected to top out in the mid 50s south of I-94 and mid 40s north of I-94.

As we head into tonight, a low level jet develops in response to an 850-700hPa shortwave that shifts through the region. Strong isentropic ascent on the 295K surface and modest moisture transport associated with these features should be enough to promote some light rainfall for a few hours north of I-94 (10-20%), although model soundings do depict some dry air below 5kft, which would act to inhibit rain from reaching the surface. Where rain is able to fall through the dry sub-cloud layer, a couple hundreths of QPF is expected.

Anomalous Warmth Continues

A few more days of anomalously warm temperatures are expected across the region as ridging, southerly flow, and warm air advection remain the primary influence on our weather. The warmest temperatures are expected Monday when those south of I-90 could see temperatures topping out in the 60s (30-60% per the 15.01z NBM). High temperatures begin to taper off Tuesday as increasing cloud cover and easterly surface winds develop ahead of a deepening surface low across the Great Plains as depicted in the 15.00z LREF, but highs remain around 45-55 degrees.

Precipitation Returns Mid Week

A strong 500hPa shortwave trough ejects into the Great Plains Tuesday, supporting the deepening of an attendant mid-latitude cyclone as it shifts eastward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Consensus amongst the 15.00z LREF members remains high regarding the track of the low, which is depicted to move eastward across southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin, favoring an overall warmer solution.

Strong warm air advection and 850-700hPa frontogenesis associated with this wave look to be the primary drivers of precipitation with both forcings maximized generally along and north of I-94, coinciding with the axis of highest QPF. Given a warmer solution is currently favored, the dominant precipitation type is expected to be rain with the 15.01z NBM highlighting 20-40% probabilities for greater than 0.1" of QPF across the region, and 20-30% probabilities for greater than 0.2" north of I-94. Still can't rule out some thunder with this event as MUCAPE upwards of 100 J/kg continue to be depicted in the global deterministic solutions.

Some potential exists for snow to mix in with the rain Wednesday afternoon north of I-94 as cold air works its way into the region (30-60%), although the highest snow potential exists north of our area. Some concern for freezing rain also remains for Taylor and Clark counties Wednesday afternoon as model soundings depict a weak warm nose aloft and surface temperatures hovering right around freezing, although confidence in this scenario is not high. Joint probabilities for freezing rain (precipitation, 850hPa temperatures above freezing, and surface temperatures below freezing) have decreased in the 15.00z LREF, currently sitting around 10% at the maximum as higher probabilities have shifted northward.

Looking at the winds associated with this wave, a tightening surface pressure gradient and developing low level jet upwards of 40kts should lead to breezy conditions at the surface through Wednesday. Gusts upwards of 45 mph are possible (20-50%), primarily for those west of the Mississippi River and south of I-90 per the 15.01z NBM, which has increased slightly as compared to previous runs.

Late Week System

Ensemble and deterministic guidance depict another wave developing quickly behind the mid-week wave, moving through the region Thursday into Friday, bringing additional potential for precipitation (30-50% per the 15.01z NBM). While quite a bit of variation exists amongst the ensembles with regard to the track and timing of this feature, current trends favor a more southerly track as compared to the mid-week wave. With cooling temperatures expected, if this southerly solution verifies, snow will be the favored precipitation type to end the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are very likely (90%) to prevail over the next 24 hours. Some MVFR fog around sunrise Monday cannot be ruled out but the arrival of a 10-15 knot breeze overnight should prevent this from forming. Some low level wind shear may occur from 08z to 13z Monday, particularly at valley terminals (ONA/LSE/PDC/OVS) where surface winds will tend to be lighter and hold onto more of a southerly component while southwesterly winds in the low levels increase to around 40 knots. Due to conditions just meeting criteria for a mention and 1-2 cycles between now and LLWS onset, have elected not to include this in the LSE TAF at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Here are some of the record high and warm low temperatures for La Crosse and Rochester from February 15 through February 16.

Record or near record highs Sunday, February 15 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 49 (1931) / 54 La Crosse, WI 65 (1921) / 54

Record or near record highs Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 59 (1931) / 54 La Crosse, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 57

Record or near record warm lows Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

Warm Low Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 35 (1931) / 40 La Crosse, WI 40 (1981) / 36

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.