textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of drizzle tonight - Thu morning...more likely north of I-90. Temperatures look too warm at this time for a freezing threat.

- Fairly quiet the rest of the week with a smattering of low end rain chances (20%) and at/above normal temps.

- Potential change in the upper level flow next week could allow for a more active weather pattern when it comes to rain/snow chances along with cooler, but aligned with seasonable norms for temps.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

> TONIGHT-THU MORNING: drizzle chances

Relatively deep low level saturation (3.5+ kft per RAP/HRRR soundings and time/height x-sections) progged to hold through tonight and much of Thu. The RAP suggests isentropic upglide on the 280:290K sfcs late this evening through Thu morning, all ahead of a shortwave troughs in northern/southern portions of the upper level flow. While the local area isn't expected to get under the direct influence of these upper level features, the low level thermodynamics + deep low saturation could/would be enough to produce patchy to areas of drizzle. GFS/NAM shows similar lift while QPF in the NAM gives a "speckled" outlay - decent indicator for drizzle. Have added low end (20-30%) chances for drizzle right now, but it could become more widespread if the low level lift increases. At this time, sfc temps don't show much threat for freezing - but something to keep an eye on, mainly north of I-94.

> REST OF THE WEEK: trending dry and seasonable to mild for temps

Progressive, spilt upper level flow suggests a fairly benign weather pattern for the region. The GEFS and EPS work to shuffle the bulk of the shortwave troughs north and south of the local forecast area. The few weak perturbations that do manage to ripple through are lacking in deep saturation. Won't rule out some low end precipitation chances (20%) here and there - with temps favoring rain - but no impactful storms on the near horizon.

After a seasonable day today, temps on track to take a few degree bump warmer for the rest of the week with upper level height rises and an uptick in low level warming. GEFS and EPS members layout 50 to 90+% chances for highs of 50+ from around I-90 south Thu-Sun - with Friday being the coolest of the days (cooler air post a passing trough to the north).

> NEXT WEEK: GEFS and EPS are trending toward developing a more dominant northwest flow a loft. Temps would likely fall back to the seasonable norms in this scenarios while shortwave will have more of a direct path to spin across the upper mississippi river valley - and better shots for precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Ongoing aviation impacts persist through much of the 19.12Z TAF period with MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings spread across the forecast area, temporary MVFR visibilities, and IFR/LIFR visibilities locally affecting smaller airports in central Wisconsin at TAF issuance.

Ceilings will flirt near 010 at both TAF sites, potentially persisting into IFR through much of the afternoon. Higher confidence at higher elevation sites outside of River Valleys and west of the Mississippi River Valley. While some models suggest <005 at KRST this afternoon, haven't introduced given impacts and lower confidence.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for WIZ017-029- 043-044. MN...None. IA...None.