textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation likely (50 to 85%) for Tuesday evening into Wednesday with rain transitioning to snow during the overnight period. There is also a window where freezing rain could occur prior to a full transition to all snow (10 to 40%).

- More widespread rain and snow chances (60 to 80%) for Thursday evening into Friday.

- Accumulating snow potential (60 to 80%) for the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today-Wednesday: Nice Today, with Mixed Precipitation for Tuesday Night into Wednesday

Zonal to southwest flow aloft with southwest flow in the low levels will result in a warm day today as highs get into the upper 50s to upper 60s with some locations potentially hitting 70F! Heading into Tuesday, a trough dips down into the Upper Midwest and as it does, surface cyclogenesis occurs roughly in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. This low shifts off to the northeast into Wednesday morning. While warmer temperatures remain aloft on Tuesday, closer to 850mb where the LREF mean has temperatures at 850mb between 0 and 10C with the warmer temperatures towards the southern extent of the CWA, cooler surface temperatures are expected as highs are expected to be in the low 40s to mid 50s. While this may seem like another nice day outside, northeast winds increase as the pressure gradient tightens resulting in sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts between 20 and 25 mph. This will result in apparent temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s for much of the CWA.

Aside from the temperatures, precipitation will start out as rain across much of the forecast area, with some thunderstorm potential for Grant county and southern portions of Clayton, Crawford, and Richland counties where some hail will be possible, however this risk would be very limited as their is only a brief window where this could occur during the evening on Tuesday. Once the storm potential is over, later Tuesday evening, temperatures cool down near the surface resulting in rain mixing with snow. This would start out in northern portions of the CWA and move southeastward as the cooler air moves through the area. There is also a window where freezing rain could occur due to the 850mb warm nose combining with the near surface temperatures being near or below freezing. While there is a 30 to 50% for at least a glaze of ice to fall, mostly in Wisconsin, there is uncertainty on the full impact this would have as temperatures leading up to this event have been quite warm. As the cold front pushes through, a weak frontogenesis band forms and the threat for freezing rain diminishes and the precipitation type switches to all snow by the morning commute. Snow totals are mostly between a trace to 1" with some locations, primarily north of I-94 in Clark and Taylor counties where totals are more in the 1 to 2" range. All precipitation chances diminish by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday-Friday: More Rain and Snow Chances

A low moves into the Upper Midwest Thursday evening and increases rain and snow chances as it moves through. The center of this low continues to track across northern Wisconsin and into northern Michigan. With southerly flow in the low levels, temperatures would remain above freezing and thus the precipitation type would be rain for much of the forecast area. As cooler air filters in behind the low, rain could transition to snow early Friday morning if temperatures get cold enough to support snow. Not much is anticipated QPF wise with this system as LREF probabilities for greater than 0.15" are between 20 and 40%, with the highest probabilities along and north of I-94. Since the colder air is more likely to remain north of I-94, there is also a 30 to 60% chance that at least 1" of snow falls. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday remain just above normal with highs in the low to mid 40s.

Saturday-Monday: Accumulating Snow

Heading into the weekend, zonal to northwest flow returns to the region. This pattern will keep temperatures likely in the mid 30s to low 40s, with cooler temperatures expected for Monday. The next feature to pay attention to is a shortwave trough that originates in the Pacific Northwest and dips down into the Plains and Upper Midwest. This wave strengthens during its journey across the northern CONUS and a surface low forms in the northern Plains. This low shifts from west to east across the region. Even though this is happening Saturday night into Sunday, there is very good agreement between the deterministic and ensemble models for this system. The main differences are in intensity and exact location of the low. Looking at the 00Z LREF clusters, all 4 clusters have a 25 to 40% chance for at least 3 inches of snow. Another thing to look at to see how much these models are in agreement is the EFI for this weekend. There is already a 0.5 to 0.7 indicator for snowfall and a Shift of Tails of 1 for portions of eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin and a 0 for the rest of the CWA. This means that snowfall for this weekend is trending to be on the higher side of climatological normal and that there are some individual outliers for snow amounts. Despite all of this model agreement, this wave is still 5 to 6 days away so details regarding this system will change, so be sure to monitor the forecast!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. A cold front has moved through the area, causing winds to shift to a more north/northwesterly direction but speeds have generally stayed at or below 10 kts. Winds will continue to veer through the afternoon and into the overnight hours, becoming east/northeasterly by daybreak tomorrow. Lower stratus will start to work its way south late overnight with some MVFR CIGs possible at the KRST terminal for a few hours tomorrow morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z. Chances for precipitation return by tomorrow afternoon, likely impacting the terminals closer to 00z Wednesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.