textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Very windy conditions are expected areawide tonight into Friday morning with strong gusts of 55 mph probable west of the Mississippi.

- Snow will impact portions of central Wisconsin tonight into Friday morning, mainly north of Wisconsin Highway 29. Due to the very windy conditions, this may lead to sharply reduced visibility in unsheltered areas of Taylor and Clark Counties.

- A major winter storm is shaping up for Saturday night into Sunday night across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There is high confidence (80-95%) in a band of 6-12 inches of snow with localized amounts of 18 to 24 inches (30-40% chance). The big question remains exactly where this band of heavy snow sets up. This heavy snow combined with strong winds Sunday afternoon/night may lead to impossible travel at times during this storm.

- Very cold temperatures settle in for the start of next week with sub-zero wind chills Sunday and Monday nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 454 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Forecast remains broadly on track for the next 24-30 hours as 12.06z guidance continues to point toward strongest gusts occurring west of the Mississippi, with a 50-95% chance for a 55 mph gust to occur at some point after 7 PM tonight through 1 PM tomorrow per 12.06z REFS. This is broadly in line with the synoptic pattern which sees a 80/65/55kt 700/850/925mb jet over NE IA and SE MN in the presence of surface pressure rises of around 2 mb/hr around sunrise Friday. Needless to say, the High Wind Warning has been left in tact.

As for snow, while 12.06z REFS and 12.00z HREF have trended toward around a 20% and 40% chance to reach 6" in Taylor County, respectively, with very windy conditions favored, should still see sharply reduced visibility in unsheltered areas. Given terrain and tree cover characteristics of this county, have continued to go with a Winter Storm Warning. That said, given the very good (90%) chance for greater than 35 mph gusts as the snow falls, these land cover characteristics are about the only thing keeping a check on switching to a Blizzard Warning. Will need to closely examine this through the day today.

Finally, only notable point of potential deviation from the ongoing forecast is for areas southwest of I-94 early Friday morning. Progged 12.06z NAM/HRRR/RAP do depict the DGZ drying out while a layer of supercooled water may hold on between 800-900 mb. With a bit of lift occurring as the last gasp of the upper trough swings east, cannot rule some freezing drizzle, particularly if HRRR cloud depth comes to pass. That said, NAM and 12.00z GFS depict a shallower saturated layer with a drier subcloud layer which would likely prevent any supercooled droplets from reaching the surface without evaporating. For now, have left mentions out of the forecast until more run to run continuity is seen.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Tonight into Friday Morning - Strong Winds Areawide, Snow in central WI

The 11.00z deterministic models remain in good agreement that a potent shortwave trough will move southeast from North Dakota into Michigan. As this occurs, rapid surface cyclogenesis takes place as it moves east southeast across northern Wisconsin into either Upper Michigan or northern Lower Michigan.

As this occurs, very strong winds will develop across the region tonight and continue through Friday morning. Soundings continue to show 45 to 60 knots on top of the mixed layer which extends up to around 800 mb. These winds are then transported to the surface due to strong subsidence in the wake of the surface low and very steep lapse rates (9-10 C/km) in the mixed layer. Like the past couple of nights the NBM wind gusts looked to be on the low side, so used a 50 50 blend of the NBM 90th percentile and the HRRR. This resulted in Wind Advisory winds east of the Mississippi River and High Wind Warning winds in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

As warm air spreads into the areas south of Interstate 94, a snow/wintry mix of snow and rain will transition to all rain. Meanwhile, Taylor County and portions of Clark County are expected to largely remain snow. Totals look to be in the 1 to 5 inch range but, given impacts in unsheltered areas due to blowing snow, have leaned upward to a Winter Storm Warning for Taylor County and, where snow is comparatively less favored, a Winter Weather Advisory for Clark County.

Saturday night into Sunday - Potential for Major Winter Storm

The deterministic models are coming into better agreement that a surface low near Kansas City on Sunday morning will track northeast toward Michiana by Sunday evening and toward Georgian Bay or northern Thumb Area by Monday Morning. The heavy snow band initially develops along the Interstate 90 and 94 corridors on Saturday night. This band pivots from southwest to northeast on Sunday and then lingers into Sunday night due to a trailing deformation band.

Looking at the various NBM snow probabilities, 6 inches has anywhere from a 50-100 percent chance of occurrence, 12 inches has anywhere from 40 to 80 percent chance of occurrence, and 18 inches has anywhere from a 30 to 80 percent chance of occurrence. The highest probabilities are currently in the Interstate 90 and 94 corridors.

Strong winds will develop on Sunday night as the low moves into Lower Michigan. This will result in blowing and drifting snow. Due to the combination of wet snow and strengthening winds, there could be damage to trees and power lines. If this system ends up being stronger than currently anticipated, blizzard warnings will be possible.

This system will likely be highly impactful for the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will degrade to MVFR to due to impending stratus and, for most of the area, light rain, with the exception of areas northeast of EAU-MFI line where snow will mix in. Winds will also be on the increase with gusts to 30 knots out of the south-southeast this afternoon turning clockwise to out of the northwest after 00z Friday, when gusts to 40-50 knots are probable, particularly west of the Mississippi.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ017. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ029. MN...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.