textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow band across portions of southeast MN, northeast IA and southwest WI will shift east this afternoon and evening leaving between 4-7" for most locations in the band. There will be a sharp cutoff in amounts on the northeastern edge of this band in west-central WI.

- Cold end to the weekend with highs in the 20s and morning lows in the single digits to lower teens on Sunday. Temperatures will feature a warming trend into next week.

- Precipitation chances increase Monday night and into Tuesday with low confidence on the precipitation type.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Rest of the Weekend: Snow Exits, Cold for Sunday

Current observational trends with this afternoon's banded snow shows a nicely oriented northwest to southeast band through portions of southeast MN, far northeast IA and southwestern WI. Based on visibility reductions to 0.25 to 0.5 miles at Preston, MN and Rochester International Airport over the past few hours, 1-2"/hr rates are likely occurring within this band. Snowfall totals within the 20-30dbz band have been fairly impressive thus far with around 4-7" reported across Fillmore and Houston Counties. Localized totals near Preston, MN have approached 9 inches where the band has resided for much of the morning and afternoon. In this particular case, dry air has really hindered snowfall production on the northeast side of the band with surface dewpoints in the single digits across west- central WI near and north of I-90. As a result, expecting a sharp cutoff in final totals once this band is done with. In any case, much of the CAMs agree on shifting this band eastward throughout the late afternoon and into the evening so the bulk of the heaviest rates will begin diminishing here over the afternoon prior to snow exiting this evening from west to east.

Otherwise, as this system exits to our east, surface high pressure will descend from western Ontario and Manitoba, Canada into the local area for Sunday which will aid in reinforcing colder temperatures for the daytime hours. Morning low temperatures on Sunday will likely be in the single digits to low teens above zero with highs only reaching into the 20s. Thankfully with minimal wind due to high pressure overhead, wind chills should be consistent with air temperatures for Sunday.

Monday - Tuesday: Seasonable Temperatures, Rain/Snow Chances

The new work week will feature a warming trend in temperatures as the surface high responsible for keeping us cold on Sunday shifts east. Behind this, low-level southerly flow will allow some moderation in temperatures with highs likely reaching back into the 30s and 40s for Monday and Tuesday. As we head into Monday night and Tuesday, our next system moves into the region in the form of an area of frontogenesis that sets up associated with a weak baroclinic zone over the area. Overall, thermodynamics in the GFS soundings seem very questionable regarding precipitation type as temperature profiles sit right on the 0C isotherm across the area. As a result, this will likely be a mixed precipitation type situation depending on how the forcing and thermodynamics ultimately pan out and which side of that OC isotherm any given location ends up on. Regardless, forecast QPF with this system does not seem overly high as the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has low to medium probabilities (20-40%) for liquid precipitation amounts over 0.1". Additionally, with warmer cloud processes occurring in the low-levels, any snow that this system does produce would likely be wetter and heavier in nature, likely snow to liquid ratios of around 10:1 or wetter. In any case with high probabilities (70-90%) in the NBM for measurable precipitation during this period, would think that precipitation is fairly likely Monday night and into Tuesday, more just a matter of what type.

Wednesday - Friday: Milder with Additional Precipitation Chances

As we head into the later half of the work week, a notable shift in the synoptic flow pattern occurs with northwesterly flow aloft switching to southwesterly. Consequently, warm advection works its way into the region with temperatures warming fairly notable in the NBM by late this upcoming week with the inter-quartile range for high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 60s Wednesday through Friday! However, with this change in synoptic flow pattern from the southwest comes the potential for more robust systems to eject from the Southern Rockies and into the Midwest with access to Gulf moisture. Confidence is quite high (80-90% chance of measurable rainfall in the GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) for seeing periods of rainfall later into the week with even some instability attempting to work into the area with low probabilities (20-40%) for at least 100 J/kg of MUCAPE in the EC ensemble Thursday evening/night leading to some thunderstorm potential. Certainly looks like a good axis of moisture transport sets up across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley for the second half of the upcoming work week, however it is unclear if we really tap into this, which would keep the bulk of the heavier rainfall to the south next week. Regardless, with the warmer temperatures expected to close out the upcoming work week, would expect any precipitation to be in the form of rain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A band of snow continues for portions of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and far southwestern Wisconsin and will linger into the early for locations in Wisconsin. Most of the snow looks to fall along and south of I-90. In the heaviest portions of this band, visibilities have reduced to under 1/2SM and CIGS have been lowered into the 500 to 1000ft range. After the snow exits southwest Wisconsin this evening, MVFR CIGS linger into the early overnight before increasing more towards 5000ft for the rest of the overnight. Light northerly winds expected through the TAF period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ053>055. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ086>088-094>096. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ009>011.