textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances graze local counties in southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin overnight through Monday night.

- Potential (40-80%) for more widespread precipitation Wednesday night into/through Thursday morning. Much spread in models attributed to questions regarding overall forcing and available moisture.

- Low confidence (30-50%) in additional precipitation chances this weekend into early week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Mostly Cloudy, Precipitation Chances Graze Forecast Area:

A persistent forecast expected into Tuesday with shower potential grazing western peripheral counties from southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin. Upper level water vapor imagery and GOES derived upper level winds depict local ridging over the Upper Mississippi River Valley, causing a shield of limited returns on mosaic RADAR imagery across the local forecast area. While RADAR imagery loops suggest the higher value reflectivity returns advecting towards the local forecast area overnight, a more meridional aspect to the synoptic pattern (i.e., ridging) expected to limit local measurable rainfall coverage and amounts.

The area of low level cyclonic rotation will be delaying inevitable cyclolysis as it approaches the forecast area, limiting local coverage in highest precipitation confidence Monday night into Tuesday. Have slightly tempered coverage of highest PoPs as a result but will be a close forecast detail to monitor even though overall impact is limited.

Wednesday Night Preciptiation Chances:

The low confidence and low impact pattern continues through the week and into the weekend as the upper level low responsible for the higher precipitation chances well upstream stalls over the Northern Plains before joining the low over the West Coast and eventually advecting east through the Mississippi River Valley midweek. While inter-LREF member confidence has increased for measurable precipitation overnight Wednesday into Thursday, intra-member and probabilistic/deterministic spread is curious specifically within the EPS.

Appears amount of local moisture remains the discerning factor due to the local forecast area being on the northern periphery of increased low level moisture transport through the start of the week as well as a subsequent, well-upstream weak low level perturbation refining direction of moisture advection towards the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The increased moisture solutions (EPS/ECMWF 25.00/25.12Z) results in 0.5"+ of rainfall primarily for locations west of the Mississippi River Valley locally while most other solutions abstain rainfall amounts to 0.1"-0.2". Above freezing surface temperatures keep overall impacts minimal although soils could benefit from the quenching saturation. The frontal boundary and accompanying moisture will be on a weakening, decreasing trend, lowering confidence for precipitation along and east of the Mississippi River Valley. Although, recent LREF trends have been increasing certainty for measurable precipitation across the forecast area through Thursday morning.

Weekend Precipitation ChanceS:

Confidence in weekend precipitation chances weakened compare to previous forecasts, resulting in a decrease of NBM PoPs by 10-25%, nearing 60% in spots. An appendage to the synoptic anticyclonic flow over the southeastern U.S. expected to spread west and north as LREF members and their deterministic counterparts suggest some semblance of cyclogenesis over the central CONUS. Slight role reversal between the EPS and GEFS over the last 24 hours with the EPS now suggesting a stronger low into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A stationary front over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley will move north as a warm front tonight. As this occurs, north winds will gradually become northeast this morning and east this afternoon and evening. Wind speeds will be 10 knots or less. Ceilings will remain in the 3-8K range.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Record or near record temperatures Wednesday (Record/Forecast):

La Crosse, WI

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/28 75F (1945) / 73F 57F (1881) / 56F

Rochester, MN

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/28 73F (2024) / 71F 54F (1989) / 54F

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.