textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry conditions through much of the Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for today and the low to mid 70s for Thursday.

- Widespread shower and storm chances (40 to 75%) return Thursday evening into the overnight. Periodic shower and storm chances continue through much of next week with some severe storm potential on Sunday and Monday to monitor.

- Temperatures warm up into the 80s for most for the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today-Thursday: Mild and Dry

A longwave trough will exit the region today followed by a brief period of shortwave ridging on Thursday. The upper level pattern continues to support northwest flow through this time, although the near-surface environment begins to switch to southwesterly flow by Thursday. Both today and Thursday are looking dry with the exception of early Thursday evening when a shortwave trough moves into the region and brings some rain with it. With the northwest flow aloft, temperatures will stay relatively mild with near to slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the low 60s to low 70s for today and the low to mid 70s for Thursday. Northwest winds for today will not be nearly as strong as they were for Tuesday, generally staying in the 15 to 20 mph range with some gusts up to 25 mph possible. Some deeper mixing could occur which could result in some wind gusts approaching 30 mph.

Thursday Evening-Wednesday: Periodic Rain and Storm Chances, Warmer

After some shortwave ridging on Thursday morning and afternoon, a trough dips down and brings a band of rain and storms with it Thursday evening. There is not a whole lot of instability with this wave, generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Another thing to note is that during the overnight period there is a low level jet that will still be quite windy, 35 to 50 kts at 850mb, and with slightly higher instability during the overnight, this could bear some watching, as hinted by the most recent GFS run where a second band of precipitation develops during the overnight. Not much is expected QPF wise, as the LREF suggests a 30 to 65% chance of more than 0.1" falling Thursday night into Friday morning. Given how dry it has been recently, this would be more than welcome!

Beginning on Friday and continuing through at least midweek, zonal to southwest flow returns to the upper levels. This flow pattern will help to bring periodic rain and storm chances as system after system moves from the Plains into the Midwest. The only question is how far north these systems can get. The first storm comes around on Sunday as a warm front moves into northern Iowa. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF have this warm front moving up into the I-90 corridor. Then on Monday the associated surface low moves through our area bringing another round of rain and storms. Both days look to have some severe potential and the recent AI NWP guidance highlights a low severe risk up to I-90 for Sunday and for much of the area on Monday. The severe risk may be higher if minimal precipitation occurs during the morning on Monday allowing for more recovery to occur. Both of these days bear watching over the coming days. A mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday look to be in store for the forecast area followed by another shot of storms on Thursday.

Temperatures from Friday through midweek will be a bit warmer than usual. High temperatures from Friday through Monday are in the 80s for most with some upper 80s possible. There is a 30 to 50% chance of hitting at least 85F on Friday across much of the CWA, based on the recent NBM, with the highest chances across northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. Highs then dip slightly into the upper 60s to mid 70s for midweek.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A shortwave trough, located over the Great Lakes, will continue to produce clouds along and east of the Mississippi River into this morning. There will even be some MVFR ceilings along and north of Interstate 94 through mid-morning. As this trough moves east today, skies will gradually clear across central and western Wisconsin. Northwest and north winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will continue through today.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.