textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers gradually spread northward this afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning, before decaying by Saturday evening.

- Prolonged period of rain arrives Monday and continues into the middle of next week.

- After a brief cool down to end this week, temperatures warm back up into the low to mid 60s for early next week before cooling back down to normal for later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today - Saturday: Light Rain

After a dry day yesterday, high pressure moves off to the east during the day today. At the same time southwesterly winds in the low to mid level winds return as theta-e advection pushes it way into the region starting this afternoon. With this flow regime, moisture increases with PWATs roughly between 1 to 1.25" and combining this moisture with the forcing moving into the region, scattered rain showers will likely form beginning this afternoon and continuing into the overnight. Heading into Saturday, more rain showers are expected (60 to 80%) during the morning and early afternoon with the coverage being more than today. Total rain amounts are generally under 0.25" for most locations with portions of northeast Iowa, far southwest Wisconsin, and southeast Minnesota that could see more than 0.25" (20 to 40%) due to the showers staying in tact for longer periods of time compared to locations further to the northeast. Focusing on the Halloween evening forecast, there still remains a low chance (10 to 20%) for some lingering rain showers to occur, however most areas should remain dry. It may end up being more of a cool and dry evening with temperatures in the low to mid 50s for any trick-or-treaters than a rainy one.

Next Week: Warmer and Wet Early with Cooler Temperatures and Lower Rain Chances for the Second Half of the Week

Shortwave ridging remains in place for Sunday and into Monday while a longwave trough moves in behind this ridging for early next week. Within this trough there are a few disturbances to watch, but the more impactful one for our area would be a low pressure system that develops in the central Plains and lifts northward into the Upper Midwest on Monday and lingers through Wednesday. This system will potentially be one of the stronger storms we have had this fall. NAEFS PWATs are in the 99th percentile to the maximum percentile for this time of year. Current forecasted PWATs are in the 1.4 to 1.7" range. Dewpoints will get into the 60s for some locations which is quite abnormal for this time of year. Now all this being said, these ingredients will help in putting2 the area in a prolonged period of rain. The main question is how much rain exactly will fall. The better moisture is more than likely going to stay off to our west, however if things can come to fruition and the better moisture can stick around a little longer, resulting in a more easterly push, than some of the ensemble outliers of 2 to 3" will be possible, but at this time this remains a low chance of occurring (10%).

Temperatures for next week will start out quite warm for early November, with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 50s, with some upper 50s possible for Monday night, which is warmer than our average high by several degrees! After the system moves out, temperatures will cool down closer to normal with highs in the 50s and lows back into the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Ceilings gradually lower through the period with MVFR to IFR ceilings overspreading the region after 06Z along with an increasing chance for rain showers. Winds become established from the southeast at 5-10kts this morning and vary little through Saturday morning.

Conditions look to improve Saturday evening and night as the rain decays and pushes off to the northeast.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.