textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain a near certainty (90-100%) Thursday but no impacts are expected.

- Strong northwest wind is expected behind a cold front Friday with decent potential (40-60%) for a 45 mph wind gust.

- Much colder temperatures (mid-20s to mid-30s) expected Saturday morning. This may bring an end to the growing season for some, particularly north of an Osseo-Sparta-Wisconsin Rapids arc (60-85% chance to fall below 28).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Rain Thursday

17z WV satellite shows an upper low over the Four Corners, a plume of moisture ahead of this feature over the southern Plains, and an upper trough advancing southeast over Alberta. At the surface, while the region is post-frontal it is not devoid of low level moisture, as evidenced by extensive stratus.

For Thursday, mid level moisture plume will advect over the region. With the low level moisture expected to largely remain in place, this should lead to rain as forcing for ascent occurs both with a lead shortwave during the morning and widespread QG ascent occurs as the Four Corners upper low and Alberta trough phase into one large scale trough that will move southeast over the Great Lakes. While enough moisture will be present for rain across the CWA Thursday, best 700/850mb moisture transport looks to remain south/southeast of our forecast area. Indeed, 14.12z HREF and REFS maximum QPF values are under 2" and probability-matched means are around 0.75-1" across the entire rain period. Therefore, am not expecting impacts from this rainfall.

Potentially windy Friday

Friday, in the wake of Thursday's upper trough, ridge will build across the Plains. With a strong surface pressure gradient present and 35-40 kt winds at 850/925mb, expect windy conditions during the day. A Wind Advisory may be needed down the road as 14.13z NBM daily max gust probabilities at the RST/LSE airports are 55-60% to meet or exceed 45 mph.

Frost/freeze potential Saturday morning

Setup for tumbling temperatures Saturday morning remains in place with the aforementioned surface high becoming centered in Kansas. The northern extent of this high looks to extend northeastward into the forecast area leading to light winds at the surface. With skies clearing as large scale descent occurs in the wake of the upper trough, excellent radiational cooling conditions are likely to result. Temperatures are highly likely (85-100%) to drop to levels supporting frost, likely (55-100%) to dip below freezing, and potentially below 28 for a killing freeze, especially (60-85%) along and north of an Osseo-Sparta-Wisconsin Rapids arc.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR ceilings have remained over the entire forecast area through the evening hours, against previous forecast confidence for VFR. Confidence in MVFR ceilings increases overnight before IFR/LIFR through Thursday morning. Eventually RA rates increase through the early afternoon from west to east. Expect precipitation and impacts to shift east of the forecast area through Thursday evening/night.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.