textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and pleasant conditions through Monday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Next widespread chance (25 to 55%) for showers and storms in Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Seasonable temperatures continue for the rest of this week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable

Northwest flow continues through Monday as a trough sits off to our east and a ridge to our west. This ridge decays as it moves eastward as we go through Monday. With the ridge axis over the central CONUS today and Monday dry conditions continue and high temperatures remain slightly cooler than normal in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints also remain on the lower side, in the 40s and 50s. The only forecast concern over the next couple of days is some fog. Through this morning it looks to be confined mainly to Mississippi River tributaries. Heading into tonight/early Monday morning, the winds shift to the east southeast which could help the fog potential become more widespread, depending on how when upper level clouds move in. Overall though, a really nice couple of days are in store for us!

Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential

Circling back to the current conditions, a trough just moved onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will ride around the ridge and eventually move over the Upper Midwest for Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast soundings from the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show some low-level curvature and elongation with their hodographs. This is slightly different from previous soundings from this morning which highlighted more elongation with little curvature. The GFS and ECMWF both have quite a bit of DCAPE (around 1000 to 1200 J/kg) and modest 0-6km shear (35 to 50 kts). All this to say that if storms can initiate then these parameters would support severe convection. The one caveat to this forecast is that we are still 3 days out from this event, so there are quite a bit of details to iron out still so stay tuned for further updates on this storm potential.

Thursday - Sunday: Dry Early with Increased Storm Potential for the Weekend

With the trough exiting the region on Wednesday, northwest flow returns for Thursday and Friday resulting in mostly dry conditions. The flow then shifts to a more quasi zonal/northwest flow pattern. Precipitation chances look to increase as we head into the weekend as a couple of shortwaves pass through the region. There is still uncertainty given we are this far out from these waves impacting the region, however a few ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS due show some potential (10%) of 1 to 2" of rain possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

While VFR conditions are favored through the period, some potential for river valley fog after 06z as winds, out of the northwest for the first 12-18 hours, become very light and out of the southeast. Confidence in this occurring at LSE was too low for a mention at this time since a second consecutive dry afternoon is on tap for Sunday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.