textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures today followed by low to mid 40s for Monday. High temperatures will continue to be roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal through much of the week.

- Mostly dry until Thursday when widespread precipitation chances (25 to 45%) return.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Today-Wednesday: Mostly Dry, Above Normal Temperatures

Shortwave ridging builds into the region today and lingers through Monday. Mid to low level winds shift southwesterly allowing for good warm air advection across the central Plains and into parts of the Upper Midwest. High temperatures for Monday are currently forecasted to get into the upper 30s to low 40s. These numbers have decreased over the last few days owing to the warmer air staying further south than previously forecasted. There remains a little uncertainty in how warm we do get as there will be a sharp temperature gradient from locations reaching the 60s (central Iowa) and low 40s (northeast Iowa). This is highlighted in the NBM 10th and 90th percentiles where the 10th percentile shows highs in the mid 30s across the CWA and the 90th percentile showing highs in the low to upper 40s. If we can get temperatures into the 40s, this will be the warmest day across the CWA since January 13th!

Heading into Monday afternoon/evening a surface low ejects out of the northern Plains and moves into the area and brings with it a cold front. Precipitation chances largely stay north of our CWA, however looking at some HRRR/RAP soundings in Medford, there is a small window where precipitation, more than likely snow, could occur later Monday afternoon/early evening. After this little wave moves through, upper level zonal flow takes over and a surface high comes overhead. This pattern will keep us dry for Tuesday and Wednesday and help to maintain temperatures in the mid to upper 30s for most.

Thursday-Sunday: Above Normal Temperatures, More Active Pattern?

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on how the latter portions of this week pan out. What is more certain is that a shortwave trough dips down into the Upper Midwest between Thursday and Friday increasing precipitation chances. When comparing the EPS with the GEFS, there is a higher likelihood of measurable precipitation (60 to 95%) whereas the GEFS has a 40 to 70% chance across the CWA. After this wave moves through, the GFS shows a low coming out of the southern Rockies that eventually phases with this first wave which in turn keeps the precipitation ongoing across portions of the Upper Midwest through Friday. The ECMWF also has this low, however it is a day later, so no phasing occurs. Ensemble cluster analysis also shows that at the end of the week, there is around a 60% chance that we are back under a ridge and a 40% chance that our area is under a trough. Past this week and into early next week, these same clusters show us in southwest flow and when looking at precipitation chances, a majority of members from both the GEFS and EPS have measurable precipitation early to middle of next week. Temperature wise, NBM does have highs generally in the mid to upper 30s, which is still 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Low to mid level stratus between 4500 and 6500ft will continue across much of the region through the morning. Cloud deck expected to scatter out until the later evening/early overnight when a BKN deck of mid to high level clouds between 15000 and 20000ft. Southeast winds sustained at 10 to 15mph through the rest of the day then diminish slightly for the overnight and shift more south.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.