textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of snow moves through the region Saturday morning and afternoon before exiting during the evening. While exact location of this band remains uncertain, models are beginning to favor areas near and north of I-90.

- Snowfall totals within the band on Saturday will likely (60-80%) range from 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts of up to 6" possible (10-30%). Heaviest snowfall rates will be from mid-morning to early afternoon.

- Temperatures will gradually warm up to start the upcoming work week with highs in the 30s and 40s and additional precipitation potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Saturday: Banded Snowfall Likely Saturday Morning and Afternoon, Uncertainty Remains in Exact Location

Here we go again with another banded snowfall forecast conundrum as the recent Hi-Res CAMs have taken a northern trajectory with the location of this snowband as compared with previous long-range guidance over the past few days. Consequently, this forecast is very tricky as confidence in the exact location of this band remains low. Currently, the bulk of guidance favors areas near and in between the I-90 to I-94 corridors to receive the bulk of the accumulating snow. The current conceptual model for this band features a fairly profound 700mb frontogenesis signal where you have a strong coupled frontogenetic/frontolysis signal that lays out across portions of the area (again where this occurs has lingering uncertainty). In the RAP conceptual model, precipitable waters have notably increased from yesterday as it more successfully taps into a Pacific moisture fetch across the northern CONUS. As a result, the moisture issues that this band had been contending with in earlier guidance seems to be less which increases confidence for impactful accumulating snow where this band does set up.

Snowfall amounts remain a question as both uncertainty in location and intensity of the snow band lingers. Based on the sounding data in the RAP/HRRR/ARW, there is fairly respectable DGZ residency within areas that see the main corridor of heaviest snow in the band with snow to liquid ratios of 15-20:1 being feasible, especially considering the frontogenetic nature of this system. As a result, probabilities are high (60-80%) for snowfall accumulations in excess of 2 inches in the recent NBM where the band inevitably sets up. Given the strong frontogenetic/frontolysis couplet in the RAP combined with more efficient snow to liquid ratios, would not be surprised to see a narrow corridor of 4-6" amounts as the NBM has some probabilities for amounts over 4 inches (20-40% chance).

As far as timing is concerned, much of the CAMs bring the initial frontogenesis band into southeast MN by daybreak with a rapid progression towards the Mississippi River by mid-morning. Snow rates will likely increase from precipitation onset fairly rapidly as the recent HREF has a probability footprint for 1" per hour rates by late morning and into the early afternoon, particularly in between the I- 90 and I-94 corridors where the ARW and Fv3 really focus with slight deviations to the north from the HRRR and RAP. Thankfully the heaviest rates will likely be for a relatively short period, around 2-4 hours before exiting to the east with diminishing snowfall rates throughout the afternoon and into the early evening.

In summary, confidence is high that a band of accumulating snow will move through the region on Saturday with latest hi-res model trends favoring areas near and north of I-90 for the heaviest snow with this system. This will differ somewhat from last week's banded snowfall event as snow to liquid ratios will be more dry and fluffy than last week. Additionally, most areas seem more favored to see amounts under 6 inches as totals that exceed 6 inches will likely be more localized in nature (10% chance at any given location in the band). However, since the exact location of this band remains uncertain, it is important to stay updated on the forecast up until the snow begins tomorrow morning as changes to snowfall amounts and location may still occur!

Sunday - Tuesday: Cold Sunday, Warming Trend to Start the New Week with Small Precipitation Chances

As we get past our banded snowfall headache, northwesterly 500mb flow combined with surface high pressure will be in place for Sunday, allowing colder air to remain in the area with highs generally in the 20s. However as this surface high pressure moves to the east, may need to watch for a developing system to our south that might try to clip areas of northeast IA and southwest WI Sunday night and into Monday. This does not seem like it would be overly impactful though as much of guidance keeps the bulk of accumulating snow to the south of the local area with the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) only having roughly 20 to 40 percent probabilities for measurable snow in this area.

Otherwise, temperatures will increase Monday and into Tuesday as surface flow trends more east to southeast with the inter-quartile range for high temperatures during this period in the lower 30s to middle 40s. Will need to watch on Tuesday how far north a secondary disturbance may reach into our area. There remains a decent amount of differences in how strong an upstream high centered near the MN/ND and Canada border and how this would influence its northward progression. In any case, probabilities in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) are low (20-30%) for measurable snow at this juncture, so really difficult at this point to have high confidence in any particular solution.

Wednesday: Milder Temperatures with a More Unsettled Weather Pattern

As we head into mid-week, the synoptic flow pattern takes a notable change as deterministic models shift the 500mb pattern from northwesterly to southwesterly. As a result, temperatures will likely trend more mild as we head into Wednesday and beyond with the inter-quartile spread in the NBM ranging the lower 40s to middle 50s, so seems fairly likely that we will trend above normal into next week. Precipitation chances with this southwesterly flow pattern remain elevated throughout the end of the upcoming work week with the NBM having medium chances (30-60%) for measurable precipitation during this period, however this will likely increase as long-range model consensus grows. This would most likely be rain given the warming trend late week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

While strong surface winds slightly weaken tonight, expect gusts to persist into the overnight, eventually weakening while rotating clockwise through the early morning ahead of increasing snowfall chances.

Narrow band of heavier snowfall remains likely from southeast Minnesota into western and central Wisconsin. Highest amounts and exact location remain forecast details that require further ironing out. While current confidence in heaviest snowfall causing IFR-VLIFR visibilities lies just north of KLSE and KRST TAF sites, will be main TAF concern through Saturday morning. Snowfall chances decrease through the late afternoon and evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for IAZ009>011.