textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day to go in our stretch of cold weather before warmer air begins moving in on Saturday. Highs for the first half of next week recover into the 20s with low to mid 30s by the end of next week.

- High confidence (>90%) that we will see a period of light snow Sunday afternoon and evening, through amounts look to be light with there being only a 20-40% chance of exceeding 1". Next potential for light snow comes Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Today - Saturday: Cold, Some Flurries later Today?

A 1030-mb surface ridge remains in firm control of the weather pattern across the region today, but one arm of a boomerang upper tropospheric vort lobe is pivoting southward across the western Great Lakes today and tonight. While there is ample kinematic DCVA forcing ahead of this trough, the current band of low-level moisture/flurries analyzed from southern Manitoba to northwestern Wisconsin will be working against this ridge and the already shallow and weak surface trough further washes out over the next 12-18 hours.

So the question is, how long will the flurries last as this upper trough swings south? A review of the latest CAM guidance paints a fairly consistent picture of the light flurries sliding southward overnight. Have gone more aggressive with the flurry mention in the forecast for tonight given that the upstream snow coverage is broader than earlier forecast, giving credence to the flurries lasting for a longer period as they drop south. Regardless of how this aspect of the forecast shakes out, impacts will be negligible.

With the increasing cloud cover tonight, lows tonight should not bottom out like they did last night. The region sits on the CAA side of a strengthening 1045-mb high that builds in the wake of the departing upper level trough for Friday. The surface airmass does not change appreciably as this high slides through, though we may see more clouds on Friday with a direct fetch off Lake Superior in place. On Saturday, the surface ridge shifts to the south and allows return southerly flow to finally set in. Temperatures won't rise appreciably for Saturday as the ridge axis passes through late in the day, but this shift to south/southwesterly flow sets the stage for a warmer stretch next week.

Next Week: Warming Up, Several Rounds of Light Snow?

Upper tropospheric ridging amplifies across the western CONUS to end this week with a northern stream vort lobe cresting the ridge Friday night and cascading down its eastern flank Saturday into Sunday. The narrow WAA wing of the attendant lower tropospheric cyclone within a region of 280-290K isentropic ascent will be the focus for a band of snow that shifts across the region Sunday afternoon. The global ensembles are set on this system producing snow and for the most part amounts look to be around or under 1". A few members have a slightly stronger fgen signal with this band and produce amounts in the 1-2" range, but the bulk of the scenarios (60-80%) have lower snow amounts. The snow consistency should be on the lighter side and impacts should be low.

This system also heralds a large scale pattern shift as the mean longwave ridging expands eastward and shoving the arctic air back northward. There may be some ripples in the overall temperature trend next week, but the general consensus in the ensembles is a steady warming through the week with highs in the 30s by week's end.

Our next shot of snow comes late Tuesday into Wednesday, but hinges on how quickly a cyclone over the central U.S. organize. As of right now, about 50-70% of the ensemble members have some sort of snow band in the region, but placement and timing differences, coupled with the light nature of the snow, makes it tough to lay out any more specifics.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A band of mid level clouds continues to make its way southward across the region. CIGS within this band are mainly between 3500 and 6000ft. This band will gradually dissipate by the mid morning and scatter out leaving behind some clouds around 5000ft through much of the day. Current NBM probabilities have around a 40 to 60% chance that MVFR CIGS will once again be possible this afternoon into the evening as cloud coverage may increase resulting in CIGS between 2500 and 3500ft. This may need to be added to the TAFs if confidence increases. Northerly winds continue through the day and gradually shift more northwesterly by later this afternoon.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.