textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather chances look to be decreasing as the better instability and shear shifts south from today into Saturday. We will continue to monitor this trend today.

- Heavy rain threat is also decreasing as precipitable water values and warm cloud layer depths continue to decrease.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Today

The 03.00z models are in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move east across Iowa and the Lower Great Lakes today. Even though the models are in good agreement, there are still differences in the CAMs. One group of CAMs takes the convection currently over Sioux Falls area and moves it east through our area mainly this morning. Meanwhile, others moves this convection southeast across Iowa. From looking at the current radar, the latter solution looks far more plausible. Considered canceling the Flood Watch early, but with still some CAMs having the storms training across the area opted to keep it going. In addition for this same reason, opted to extend the expiration to 03.18z. With the better instability and shear further south today, the better rain and severe weather chances look to be mainly south of Interstate 80. High temperatures will be in the 80s.

Tonight and Independence Day

The models continue to show that a shortwave trough will move east through the Upper Mississippi River Valley tonight and on Independence Day. As it approaches, the surface low will bring northward the boundary to our south as a warm front tonight and on Independence Day. The warm front will be the focus for convection tonight and the warm and cold front will be the focus for convection on Independence Day. Severe weather chances are highly uncertain due to large spreads with surface-based CAPES and generally weak 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s. High temperatures on Independence Day will range from the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Sunday into Wednesday

High pressure will build across the region. This should give us a much needed break from the rainfall for much of the area. Temperatures will gradually warm from Sunday into Wednesday. High temperatures on Sunday will be around 80 and in the mid- and upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A mesoscale convective complex will move east through the area this morning. A few embedded storms may impact the TAF sites from time to time. Visibilities will be primary VFR, but there could be some brief periods of IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Even though the models are in good agreement, there are still differences in the CAMs. One group of CAMs takes the convection currently over Sioux Falls area and moves it east through our area mainly this morning. Meanwhile, others moves this convection southeast across Iowa. From looking at the current radar, the latter solution looks far more plausible. Considered canceling the Flood Watch early, but with still some CAMs having the storms training across the area opted to keep it going for now.

With precipitable water values dropping into the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range and the warm cloud layer depths decreasing into the 3 to 3.5 km from today into Independence Day, the chances of heavy rain appear to be decreasing. We will continue to monitor radar trends this morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

ON JULY 2, 1.82 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SURPASSED THE OLD RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 1.34 INCHES SET IN 1933.

THE 2-DAY (JULY 1-2) RAINFALL OF 3.29 INCHES WAS THE MOST SINCE AUGUST 7-8, 2021 WHEN 7.36 INCHES OF RAIN FELL (LARGEST 2-DAY RAINFALL EVER RECORDED IN ROCHESTER).

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ041-042- 053>055-061. MN...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ087-088- 094>096. IA...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030.