textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storm are possible this afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- Cooler weather to end the week with highs staying in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Warmer weather returns this weekend and continues next week as highs get in the upper 80s to low 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Today: Fog Early this Morning, Scattered Showers and Storms This Afternoon

With the rain that fell and the subsidence behind the front that moved through, foggy conditions may occur early this morning. If skies clear out a little more then their could also be localized areas of dense fog in some locations. Northwest flow aloft along with soundings suggesting around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. With weak shear in place for this afternoon, these storms will struggle to get going. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. The main threat with these storms that can get going and stay organized a for a period of time would be very localized rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5" due to slower storm motion.

Friday-Next Week: Cooler End to the Week with Warmer and Drier Conditions Next Week

Beginning on Friday, a ridge builds into the Upper Midwest. This will limit any rainfall chances for much of next week. Temperatures get into the upper 80s to low 90s across the CWA with the warmest temperatures west of the Mississippi River. At the surface the region will be just to the east of the high pressure center which could temper our temperatures compared to the High Plains where they will be in good southerly flow and west of the high pressure center. Confidence is high on the ridge staying overhead through midweek. Afterwards is where the uncertainty begins. Ensembles and deterministic guidance show the ridge breaking down at some point and bringing the storm path more in line with the Upper Midwest, however the main difference is when this occurs. The longer the ridge stays amplified and over our area, the less likely we see convection in our region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

IFR low-stratus and potentially fog is expected to continue developing throughout the overnight across much of the local area. This will likely persist throughout the overnight and into the morning before diurnal mixing quickly mixes out fog and low-stratus giving way to VFR conditions by afternoon. One thing we will need to watch is if any 1/4SM can develop as both the GLAMP and HREF hint some degree of a footprint for it in southeast MN and portions of west-central WI where clearing in the anvil shield from earlier thunderstorms may take place. Opted not to include in the KRST TAF for now but will amend to include 1/4SM fog if trends favor this. Otherwise, some isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible east of the Mississippi River this afternoon, however the probability of these reaching KLSE was too low (10% chance) to include any mention at this time.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

After a swath of 3 to 5" fell in portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and a more localized area of 5 to 7" across southern Mower County, the Cedar River is pronged to be above flood stage over the next few days as the runoff fills into the River. Little to no more rain is expected over the next few days. The lone exception is this afternoon as scattered showers and storms are possible. There is a localized possibility of 0.5 to 1.5" occurring where a storm occurs. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. Given the slow storm motions, these storms could linger over a given location.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.