textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential (25-50%) for freezing drizzle this morning along and northwest of a Mason City IA to Rochester to Medford arc.

- Warmer temperatures return for Sunday and Monday with daytime highs from the 50s into low 60s.

- Precipitation potential (30-45%)returns Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Some snow may occur with this precip, but impactful amounts appear doubtful (10% chance for 3"+).

UPDATE

Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Upstream observations show a mix of snow and freezing drizzle across the Twin Cities metro early this morning as a band of precipitation moves slowly towards the local area associated with a band of low-level frontogenesis. Based on IR satellite trends, saturation is initially not present in the DGZ with cloud top temperatures of -10C to -13C that correspond with the drizzle/freezing drizzle observations in the Twin Cities Metro. However, as you head northwest of the Twin Cities, IR cloud top temperatures increase to -20C where snow is the observed precipitation type. As this moves southeast into portions of southeast MN and west/north-central WI, sounding profiles in the recent HRRR/RAP at Rochester, MN and Lake City, MN paint similar trends with an initial absence of dendritic growth zone saturation but then tries to saturate that layer later into the morning. Consequently, current trends would favor an initial drizzle/freezing drizzle period with the CAMs bringing in precipitation by around 6am and then switching to snow prior to precipitation exiting by late morning. In any case, where freezing drizzle occurs, a glaze of ice on untreated and elevated surfaces is likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Freezing rain/drizzle possible Saturday morning

Large positively upper trough is seen over the northern and central Plains on 03z WV satellite with a strong southwesterly upper jet over eastern NE toward western Lake Superior. At the surface, associated cold front is starting to push through our western zones with northwesterly winds seen at Dodge Center and Austin. With an axis of robust 850/925mb frontogenesis just behind the surface front and ascent via ageostrophic response to the right entrance region of the upper jet, some convection is occurring atop the 850mb warm nose behind the front over northwest IA and south central MN leading to freezing rain in Estherville IA where surface temps are 31F. The good news is that in our CWA, HRRR/RAP suggest surface temps will not fall as quickly compared to farther west so should this batch of post-frontal convection reach our area, rain would result. However, progged profiles at RST do eventually drop below freezing at Rochester while the warm nose erodes at the same time. With this near surface layer remaining saturated while the DGZ remains dry through around 10am, any low level ascent could lead to freezing drizzle. Have therefore moved the forecast tomorrow morning - where precip is possible (15-40%) along and northwest of a Mason City IA to Rochester to Medford ac - toward rain transitioning to freezing drizzle, retaining a slight chance (15%) for snow in case the DGZ saturates.

Warm temperatures return Sunday and Monday

After a cool post frontal Saturday with slowly clearing skies, partly to mostly sunny conditiosn return Sunday and Monday. Additionally, a pair of northern stream disturbances will lead to lightly breezy southwesterly surface winds during both days. This should lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s. 07.01z NBM interquartile ranges are 4-5 degrees F so confidence is good this warm up will occur.

Next chance for precip Tuesday into Wednesday

Slow moving upper trough looks to slide over the northern Plains and upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday with this feature amplifying roughly overhead Wednesday into Thursday. Given favored positive tilt to this trough as it approaches, best forcing for ascent and moisture look to be displaced to our southeast. However, as the main body of the upper trough passes overhead, could (30-45%) get some light precip and, given progged 850/700mb temps below 0C, snow would be possible as well. Amounts at this do not look to favor impacts, with only a 10-15% chance to reach 3" of accumulation per 07.01z NBM and 06.12z LREF, in line with the overall pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Immediate TAF concern is FZDZ moving into southeast Minnesota with near freezing surface temperatures. Associated IFR-MVFR ceilings and visibilities gradually erode as the responsible frontal boundary shifts southeast through the morning hours.

Subsequent impacts from temporary LLWS expected overnight. Timing of surface mixing relative to enhancement of nocturnal low level jet nearing LLWS criteria leaves confidence lower and out of TAFs at the current forecast hour.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.