textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder than normal temperatures persist through Friday with highs in the single digits to teens above zero. Morning lows below zero at most locations each morning. Wind chills of -25F will be possible (30-50%) on Thursday & Friday morning in north-central WI and southeast MN.

- Temperatures trend closer to normal this weekend and into early next week with highs in the 20s areawide starting Sunday.

- Clipper system brings light snow chances (30-50%) on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Rest of Today - Friday: Staying Very Cold

The synoptic flow pattern remains relatively steady-state over the course of this week with upper-level northwesterly flow remaining in place. As a result, not expecting much modification in our ambient airmass during this timeframe which is reflected in the median high temperature fields in the NBM remaining relatively consistent through Friday with highs in the single digits to lower teens above zero across the entire local area. Precipitation chances in this synoptic regime are fairly limited with the only shot coming with a wave continuing to move through the area during the daytime hours today which may squeak out enough moisture to bring some isolated flurries this afternoon, however current satellite trends would suggest this is quite unlikely given we've cleared out fairly nicely.

As we head into Thursday night, an upper-level front/shortwave pivoting around a upper-low will push through the local area accompanied with a high pressure system to our west diving through the Northern Plains. As a result, will see some slight reductions in temperatures accompanied with an increasing surface pressure gradient, particularly on Friday morning. Consequently, probabilities for wind chills at or colder than -25F increase across portions of north-central WI and southeast MN during this period. The grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian) has respectable (30-50%) probabilities for wind chills under -25F across southeast MN and north-central Wisconsin, primarily on Friday morning.

This Weekend: Closer to Normal Temperatures, Light Snow Chances

As we head into the weekend, a respectable shortwave ridge will pivot its way southward through the northwesterly flow into the local area on Saturday. As this occurs, south to southwesterly surface flow will be reestablished across the area allowing for some "warm" air advection to work its way into the area. As a result, Saturday morning will likely be our last morning of this cold stretch of lows below zero prior to warming up into the middle teens to lower 20s as suggested by the NBM on Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday, continued southerly to southwesterly surface flow will enable our temperatures to moderate further with highs uniformly reaching into the 20s across the entire local area within the inter-quartile range of the NBM. However, quick on the heels of the shortwave ridge that is responsible for our warm-up, a clipper system is shown by much of the deterministic models (GFS/EC/Canadian) to push into the Upper Midwest during the day on Sunday. As a result, probabilities in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) are reasonably high (50-70% chance) for measurable snowfall on Sunday. Consequently, would expect the NBM precipitation probabilities to continue to increase during this period over the next few days. While the operational GFS/EC have some accumulations in the 1-3" ballpark with this system, this is not supported by the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) which has very low probabilities (10-30%) for amounts over 1" at this juncture. In any case, seems like our most realistic chance for any snowfall over the next 7 days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period as low-level cigs exit the region this afternoon leaving mostly clear skies in its wake. Winds will begin the TAF period at around 15kts from the northwest before diminishing later this afternoon and evening to around 10 kts or less. A few MVFR low-clouds are possible on top of the nocturnal inversion this evening and into the overnight, however the recent HREF only has about a 10% chance of this resulting in a bkn to ovc MVFR deck.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.