textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Around normal to above normal temperatures with occasional chances for precip through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Around, above normal temperatures with occasional chances for precip ahead

Post frontal regime will lead to near-normal temperatures for Monday after a chilly Sunday night with lows in the 20s, when clearing skies and light winds lead to excellent radiational cooling. Through Thursday, expect a warming trend in temperatures as another climatologically anomalous upper ridge builds far to our southwest, with highs favored to be around 50s in Taylor County to the upper 60s in far SW WI for Thursday afternoon. Similar to last week, there is a good amount of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the aforementioned ridge, with interquartile ranges for highs of 10-15 degrees Wednesday and particularly Thursday, when a cold front may spoil things depending on when it arrives. That said, neither of Wednesday/Thursday at this time appear to be days with highly efficient mixing, so am not concerned about a vast over- performance vs. NBM (like this past Thursday and Saturday) at this time.

As for precipitation, our position on the northeastern periphery of the building ridge will keep us vulnerable to occasional precip from shortwaves ejecting downstream in the west-northwesterly flow aloft. At this time, best period for precip (35%) looks to be Thursday into Friday when a longwave upper trough moves over the Great Lakes. Chance for potentially impactful rain (1"+) or snow (3"+) is very low (<5% per 22.13z NBM and 22.00z LREF).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Ongoing MVFR ceilings holding strong west of the Mississippi River Valley expected to lift through the evening hours. VFR expected through the rest of the 23.00Z TAF period. Winds turn out of the south Monday afternoon and strengthen from the southwest Monday night.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Snowmelt has led to rises on area rivers and streams over the past week with this continuing in areas that saw 1-2 feet of snow a week ago, concentrated in the Black and Trempealeau basins. These rises have outrun both deterministic forecasts and HEFS output with minor flooding ongoing on the Black River at Black River Falls. This may also cause minor flooding downstream at Galesville but have refrained from issuing a Flood Watch at this time due this taking place more than 48 hours down the road. As for the Trempealeau, do not expect Arcadia to reach minor flood as, while the forecast is well higher than top end HEFS output currently, upstream observations suggest a turnaround will very likely (95%) occur before minor flood is reached.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.