textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal to near record temperatures continue into Monday with overnight lows in the 60s and daytime highs in the 80s.

- Periodic chances for rain exist this week. The greatest potential for widespread rainfall occurs Thursday into Friday (50-70%) before mostly dry conditions return this weekend.

- Temperatures cool towards normal Tuesday through Thursday, possibly falling below normal by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

This Afternoon - Monday Afternoon: Well Above Normal to Near Record Temperatures

Well above normal to near-record temperatures are expected to linger into Monday as upper level ridging and rising heights build into the region while southerly low level winds continue to usher warm air into the region. Mostly clear skies should allow for efficient mixing to around 850hPa where temperatures sit between 17-20C owing to this warm air advection, resulting in surface temperatures climbing into the 80s this afternoon and Monday afternoon. High level cloud cover increases overnight into Monday morning which could hinder diurnal heating and high temperatures a bit on Monday depending how long they linger across the region, but overall expectations are for skies to be mostly clear through much of the day.

Monday Afternoon - Friday: Periodic Rain Chances, Trending Cooler

700hPa troughing moves into the area along with a surface low and associated frontal zones on Monday, with the warm front lifting northward through the region during the afternoon hours. Showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder given a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability are expected along this boundary through the afternoon and into the evening, mainly north of I-94 where deeper moisture is expected. Current probabilities across our area sit around 20-40% per the 11.12z HREF/REFS, higher across northern Wisconsin where stronger forcing along the front and deeper moisture is expected. Given some dry air in the low levels, amounts will also be fairly low, generally 0.1-0.2" per the 11.13z NBM, but some higher amounts could be realized where the atmosphere is able to make use of the instability. The surface cold front then moves through the region Monday night into Tuesday before stalling across southern Iowa into northern Illinois, allowing for cooler temperatures to filter into the Upper Mississippi River Valley through the remainder of the week.

Another shot at some rainfall comes Tuesday evening into the overnight hours as another bout of shortwave energy moves over the stationary boundary that develops across Iowa into Illinois. While the bulk of precipitation is expected to remain south of the area, more confined to the synoptic forcings as depicted by the various ensemble suites, those along and south of Highway 18 could see some rainfall during this period (20-50%).

Greater potential for showers comes Thursday into Friday morning as an upper level low and associated surface mid- latitude cyclone move into the Midwest. Higher confidence exists regarding rainfall potential during this period as noted by the 11.13z NBM which has a 50-70% probability for measurable rainfall along with some potential for amounts of 1/2" or more, a 20-40% chance.

Drier conditions begin to develop Friday, but could see some scattered showers develop during the afternoon in the cold air advection regime on the backside of Thursday's low. That said, current probabilities of this are quite low, generally around 10-15%.

Next Weekend: Cool, Mostly Dry

Fairly strong high pressure looks to sink into the central United States next weekend as the aforementioned low moves eastward and longwave ridging builds in from the west, resulting in little potential for precipitation. A much cooler airmass is also expected to accompany these synoptic features resulting in near to slightly below normal temperatures. Exact temperature values are uncertain as quite a bit of temperature spread exists within the various ensemble suites, upwards of 10-15 degrees. However, the overall trend is towards cooler temperatures with mean high temperatures in the 11.13z NBM in the mid 50s to low 60s, around 5 degrees below normal. Overnight lows Friday into Saturday may also fall to around or below freezing, coldest across central into north-central Wisconsin.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Southerly winds with gusts of 15-20KT continue this afternoon before diminishing overnight. While surface winds are expected to diminish, winds around 1-2kft are expected to remain on the stronger side, leading to some potential for low level wind shear overnight for river valleys sites including KLSE. However, this is going to be dependent on the degree of low level mixing present overnight and could ultimately be realized as low level turbulence instead. Because of this uncertainty, confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF at this point. This threat ends Monday morning with southerly winds and VFR conditions continuing through the rest of the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Record warm temperature information for Monday.

La Crosse, WI (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/12 87F (1995) / 87F 65F (1896) / 68F

Rochester, MN (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/12 85F (1975) / 86F 61F (2008) / 67F

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.