textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- One more warm day today before much cooler conditions move in over the area Wednesday into the start of next weekend.

- Looking mainly dry over the next seven days, however, there are low to medium chances (20-40%) for light precipitation on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Today: Last Warm Day Before the Cool Down

One more mild, Fall day is in store for the Upper Midwest before cooler conditions begin to move in on Wednesday, but moreso Thursday/Friday. High pressure remains in place over the region for today leading to very light winds (5-10 mph or less) and dry conditions. Warm temperatures in the 50s are forecast once again today with some locations reaching the 60 degree mark. The highest potential (30-60%) to reach 60 for a high will be across southwestern Wisconsin.

Wednesday to Friday: Light Rain Chances and Cool Conditions

The stagnant zonal pattern becomes more progressive and active on Wednesday as an upper level trough quickly digs south towards the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. Given the progressive nature of the trough, moisture quality will not be all that great out ahead of the system and will quickly decrease on the backside of the trough Thursday morning. At the surface, a low pressure system will trek east to southeast from the Dakotas to the Mid Mississippi River Valley throughout the day. The upper level dynamics combined with the sufficient moisture should lead the development of light rain showers across at least portions of the area on Wednesday. The chances that the rain accumulation is very light (0.10 inches or less) is still quite high with those chances being 70 percent or higher according to the 10/01z NBM. The main push of cold air will lag behind the precipitation bands so rain will be the precip type on Wednesday. Plenty of dry air will be in place aloft by the time the colder airmass arrives Wednesday night. Even so, atmospheric profiles depict some saturation in the sfc-H800 layer Wednesday night while the temperatures cool off considerably, so it cannot be ruled out that flurries or very light snow may fall during the overnight hours. No accumulation would occur if any snow is able to form.

Speaking of the cold air mass, temperatures on Wednesday will cool down, but should stay slightly above normal for one more day. Forecast highs should range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. The cooler airmass arrives early Thursday morning with H850 temperatures progged to be down to -5 to -8 Celsius by sunrise. Morning lows will be right around or below freezing area-wide to start the day. The cool air will stick around through Friday and afternoon highs for both Thu/Fri will be in the lower 40s to upper 30s. Surprisingly enough, the NBM bias correction is not leading to much of an increase in temperatures on Thursday compared to the raw NBM. However, that quickly changes on Friday where the bias correction is approximately 2 degrees on the warmer side. Deterministic model output indicates temperatures may stay in the 30s all day. Will keep the NBM highs for now given it is such a marginal change and it really does not change the message that it will be the coldest airmass of the season thus far.

Next Weekend: Slow Warming Trend with Dry Conditions

Surface high pressure is expected to sink south into the Upper Midwest this upcoming weekend. This will keep conditions dry so apart from the light precip chances on Wednesday, a dry forecast is on tap for the area through at least next Monday. Temperatures on Saturday remain cool in the 40s as the cooler airmass begins to exit off to the east. Highs warm back up to around normal on Sunday and that warming trend should continue into the start of the next work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions through the period. High level clouds (between 20kft and 25kft) move in during the afternoon and as the evening arrives, these CIGS lower into the 10kft to 15kft range. Light northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph through the morning shifting to light southwest winds for the afternoon and evening. Light rain will be possible Wednesday morning (15 to 25%).

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.