textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic showers and storms into next weekend. Maybe some small chances for severe weather on Wednesday.

- Unusually cool weather expected into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Tonight

A northern stream shortwave trough will move into the region tonight. The 0-1 km mixed-layed CAPES ahead of this wave will be up to 150 J/kg. This will result in scattered showers and isolated storms moving through the region. With weak 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear and instability, not anticipating any severe weather. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid-50s.

Tuesday

The deformation area of the low pressure system will move southeast through parts of southeast Minnesota, and west-central, central, and north-central Wisconsin on Tuesday morning. The 0-1 km mixed-layed CAPES climb up to 250 J/kg. The highest values will be in central and southwest Wisconsin. The precipitation chances looked to be on the low side, so raised them up into the 80s and 90s. Like tonight, the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear will remain on the weak side, so no concerns for organized severe weather. Rainfall amounts will generally range from a trace to a tenth of an inch. High temperatures will range from the mid-60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night

A strengthening low pressure system will move southeast and east through the Upper Mississippi region on Wednesday. Much of the area will be located in the left-exit region of a 120-knot 250 mb jet. This will increase the lift across the region. Precipitable water values are 1 to 1.5" south of Interstate 90. Still plenty of uncertainty on how much instability will be located over the region. The slower solutions have The 0-1 km mixed-layed CAPES up to 1,000 J/kg. Meanwhile, the faster solutions have very little instability. With strong 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear, the amount of instability will greatly impact whether we see any severe weather. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s to mid-70s.

Thursday through Sunday

The northern jet stream will remain very active with several embedded shortwave troughs moving through the region. This will keep periodic showers and storms in the forecast from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Like the past couple of days, there continues to be plenty of uncertainty on whether the instability and shear will be ever co-located. As a result, it is uncertain whether there will be any organized severe weather. Temperatures will be remain below normal from the mid-60s and mid-70s for high temperatures and range from the mid-40s to mid-50s for low temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through late tonight with scattered high- based showers overnight brining minimal aviation impacts. More widespread showers arrive early Tuesday morning and look to last through midday before clearing in the afternoon. Look for MVFR-- possibly localized IFR--conditions during their passage. Winds will remain from the west at 5-10 kts this afternoon, backing more towards the S/SW overnight before veering to the northwest at 10- 15G20-25kts for the morning on Tuesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.