textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler weather arrives for the end of the week and the weekend with highs falling into the 40s and lows sliding into the 20s.

- Periodic rounds of very light rain or snow showers transit the region between this afternoon and possibly as late as Friday. Impacts from these showers would be very minimal.

- Temperatures warm back into the 50s for early next week with drier weather for the weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

This Afternoon - Friday: Cooler, Periodic Sprinkles/Flurries

Cold air advection is steadily building southward as winds switch from E to NNW in the wake of a compact area of low pressure that is tracking through IL/IN early this afternoon. Lower tropospheric temperatures fall from +3C to -7C by Thursday morning as polar air spreads southward from northern MN/southern Ontario. Highs for tomorrow and Friday will struggle to reach the low 40s as continued cold air advection takes place under broad cyclonic upper tropospheric flow.

A series of undulations/waves ripple through the region between this afternoon and Friday morning. While moisture is limited above 800-mb, steep low-level lapse rates in conjunction with a fetch of moisture off Lake Superior look to be enough to support at least periodic sprinkles or even flurries (depending on the depth of the boundary layer moisture, which is struggling to reach -10C at times) with each of these waves. Little to no impacts are expected from these very light showers with the regions impacted gradually shifting eastward over the ensuing 24-36 hours as the upper level pattern ever so slowly migrates eastward. The exact timing of these waves is tough to nail down from an hourly forecast perspective, so the mention of sprinkles/flurries was kept broad at this time.

The Weekend into Early Next Week: Dry and Slowly Warming

An Omega Block sets up over the High Plains for Friday into the weekend and redevelops early next week as a stronger subsequent ridge merges in from the west. The aforementioned meridional 1023-mb surface high pressure cell gradually slides from MN-MO to the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio River Valley and deepens to around 1035-mb between Friday and Tuesday, resulting in a more moderating flow pattern becoming established through the weekend into early next week. The medium range ensembles are gravitating towards next Thursday-Saturday being the timeframe of seeing the warming temperatures from this pattern shift, but even these only look to reach into the mid to upper 50s. Little if any precipitation is forecast with these ridges in firm control.

This amplification of the upper level pattern for the end of next week does set the stage for a potentially more active stretch of weather leading into the Thanksgiving holiday. How this pattern evolves remains to be seen, but impactful snow somewhere in the Upper Midwest is one plausible scenario that is showing up in a few ensemble members.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions currently present across the region with northerly winds between 5-12 kts. A band of MVFR CIGs are forecast to move south into the terminals overnight with longer lasting impacts west of the river in Southeast Minnesota and Northeast Iowa. BKN to SCT MVFR level CIGs will continue at KRST into the morning hours before lifting to low end VFR by early afternoon. VFR conditions should then prevail through the end of the period. Northerly winds will continue for the duration of this forecast package with speeds generally in the 8-15 kt range.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.