textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy and warm today with southwest winds gusting up to 40 to 45 mph west of the Mississippi River and 30 to 45 mph everywhere else. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm develop across the forecast area this afternoon with southwest Wisconsin to north central Wisconsin seeing 0.25 to 0.5" of rain.

- More rain for Thursday night, mainly for northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin where 0.25 to 0.75" will be possible.

- Warming into the weekend and early next week as highs get into the 70s for Sunday and Monday. Periodic rain and thunderstorms expected Saturday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Today: Breezy Early, Showers and Storms This Afternoon and Evening

The low level jet brought winds of 50 to 60 mph around 850mb this morning which has translated to surface wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph for areas along and south of I-90. Slightly lower gusts are expected east of the Mississippi River. This jet continues to make its way eastward and decreases in magnitude as a cold front slides down from the northwest. As a result, winds decrease as the afternoon progresses. Showers begin to pop up as low level theta-e advection and moisture transport increases during the early afternoon. With the southwesterly flow, a little bit of instability (200 to 400 J/kg of MUCAPE) builds in to the region this afternoon so a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Despite the winds dying down, they will still be strong enough (45 to 50 kts) near 800mb, where LCL's are expected to be at, to where a rogue strong to severe gust could be possible given the dry sub cloud layer as rain begins to fall, especially along and east of the Mississippi River. Since this rain will be progressive enough, rain totals generally stay in the 0.1 to 0.4" range east of the Mississippi River and in northeast Iowa with less than 0.1" in southeast Minnesota. While heavy rain is not likely, the 00Z HREF dos produce a 20 a 50% chance of greater than 0.5" of rain occurring in southwest Wisconsin.

Thursday: Cooler with More Rain South of I-90

Temperatures on Thursday cool down closer to normal, towards the low to mid 50s. The cold front that will pass through today, stalls out to our south across Iowa. A shortwave dips down into the Upper Midwest interacting with this cold front. This interaction helps to increase the moisture transport into Iowa and southern Wisconsin as southerly 850mb winds help to push moisture northward. Showers and thunderstorms develop in Iowa and Illinois Thursday afternoon while northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin see rain move in by Thursday evening. Rain totals are generally in the 0.25 to 0.5" range except for far southern portions of Fayette, Clayton, and Grant counties where up to 0.75" will be possible.

Friday-Monday: Warming Up, Periodic Showers and Storms

The end of the week will be slightly above normal with temperatures as a high pressure system translates across the Upper Midwest. Winds stay light and out of the north. By Saturday there is good agreement on ensemble and deterministic data that southwesterly flow returns and sticks around into Monday. EFI values for Sunday and Monday have a good area for above normal temperatures including Monday where the entire forecast area is in the 0.8 to 0.9 range. Combining these warm temperatures with the above normal PWAT entering the region, heavy rainfall will certainly be possible. Starting on Saturday PWATs increase to the 97.5 percentile and on Sunday into Monday they increase further towards the 99.5 percentile based on the recent NAEFS run. As a result of this flow pattern, a few waves move into the region increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. Although heavy rainfall is possible given this setup, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on where exactly this heavier rainfall ends up, given that this is still a few days away. LREF probabilities for greater than an inch of rain are low, around 10% for any one location during the weekend and early next week. With this setup, severe storms will once again be possible this weekend, particularly on Sunday where SPC has put a slight risk (15%) for severe weather from along I-90 south.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Line of precipitation shifting east through central and northern Minnesota expected to slightly fill in through the forecast area, predominantly potentially affecting the eastern half of the forecast area along the Mississippi River Valley and east in western to central Wisconsin. Ongoing strong winds will weaken this evening into tonight.

Widespread precipitation chances shift northeast Thursday night, primarily affecting southern half of the forecast area from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The Yellow and Kickapoo Rivers still have some minor flooding occurring, however these rivers are on the downward trend. The rain that we receive over the next couple of days will have little to no impacts on the rivers. Our focus then turns to the weekend to see the next potential for heavy rain to occur. Current confidence in heavy rain occurring is low and so is the exact location of the heaviest rain.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ086-087-094- 095. IA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ008>010-018- 019-029.