textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic showers and storms this week. The highest chances (80-90 percent) will be Wednesday afternoon and night. The chances for any organized convection looks very low.

- Cooler-than-normal temperatures expected through the week with high temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to mid-70s, and low temperatures ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This Afternoon through Monday morning

Through Monday morning, high pressure will provide dry weather for the Driftless area. With diurnal mixing this afternoon, it will remain breezy with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. As heating gradually wanes this evening, the winds will gradually become west and wind speeds will decline to 10 mph or less. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-40s to lower 50s.

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday

A shortwave trough will move through the Driftless area on Monday night and Tuesday morning. 0-1 km mixed-layer CAPES will climb up to 300 J/kg ahead of this wave on Monday afternoon. This will provide enough instability for scattered showers and storms. With weak 0-3 km (up to 25 knots) and 0-6 km shear (up to 10 knots), not anticipating any organized severe storms. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid-70s on Monday. Low temperatures will be in the lower and mid-50s. High temperatures on Tuesday be around 70 degrees.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night

A much stronger shortwave trough will move through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The Driftless area will be in the left-exit region of a 120-knot 250 mb jet. This will greatly enhance the lift across the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening. As a result, it is not too surprising that the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear is quite strong across the region. Fortunately, the warm sector will stay well to our south across Missouri and southern Iowa. 0-1 km mixed- layer CAPES stay mainly less than 250 J/kg in the GEFS and less than 400 j/kg in the EPS. As a result, the better chances for organized convection look to remain well to our south.

It continues to look like the deeper warm cloud layer depths and greater precipitable water values will remain across northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern Illinois. As a result, not concerned about heavy rain too.

Thursday through Saturday

The northern stream jet will remain very active with several embedded shortwave troughs. This will keep periodic showers and storms in the forecast. There continues to be plenty of uncertainty on whether the instability and shear will be ever co-located. As a result, it is uncertain whether there will be any organized severe weather. With the northern stream jet remaining to our south and west, temperatures will be remain below normal in the 70s for high temperatures and range from the mid-40s to mid-50s for low temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with northwesterly winds of 10-15G20-25kts this afternoon decreasing to 5-10kts this evening and backing to the west through Monday midday. The next chance of rainfall that could impact aviation concerns comes Monday night into Tuesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.