textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain likely for Friday morning and thunderstorms for Friday evening, with potential for severe thunderstorms Friday evening. Current forecasted rain amounts are between 0.75 and 1.25" for much of the area. Localized higher amounts are possible.

- Low severe thunderstorm potential for much of the forecast area on Friday with the best chance in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin where a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) exists for severe weather to occur. In this area all hazards are possible. The best timing for any severe weather to occur looks to be in the evening to early overnight.

- After a cool day on Saturday, temperatures warm up into the low to mid 60s for Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Today-Friday: Dry Today with Widespread Rain and Storms for Friday

Dry conditions for the rest of the day as we have light southeast low level flow. A trough and associated surface low eject out of the central Rockies and into the central Plains tomorrow morning. Ahead of this low, a secondary wave develops as the upper level jet begins to increase. During the day today and leading up to the wave approaching our CWA, southerly moisture advection continues to increase PWATs across the region. By the time the wave reaches the Upper Midwest, PWATs are expected to be in the 1 to 1.25" range, which according to NAEFs climatology is in the 99 to 99.5 percentile for this time of year. As a result, widespread rain and storms are likely Friday morning. This first wave rain moves out of the CWA by the early afternoon. During the afternoon there may be a break in the action with some scattered showers and storms possible. Still some uncertainty due to the continued moisture advection throughout the afternoon. Heading into the evening, another round of rain moves in with increased potential for thunderstorms as the surface low and associated cold front push through the Upper Midwest. Localized rainfall rates may be high with the higher than normal PWATs as illustrated by the DESI probabilities for 0.5"/hr rates, where there is a 10 to 25 % chance in portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin on Friday evening. Due to the frozen ground or snow cover, rain will likely struggle to infiltrate the soil and result in runoff. As a result some river rises and localized ponding will be possible. Behind the cold front, there is a low chance for some rain/snow showers particularly in southeast Minnesota and north central Wisconsin. All precipitation chances diminish Saturday morning.

Looking at the severe thunderstorm potential, the first wave of rain Friday morning had a low end potential for some small hail to fall, however that has since waned and while it is not completely ruled out, Friday morning should experience rain with some localized areas of heavier rain. Heading into the evening and early overnight, the low moves closer to our forecast area. Ahead of the low, there remains some uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front gets. Based on recent CAMs the warm front is able to get into southern portions of our forecast area and into southern Wisconsin. If thunderstorms are able to get going, they will have quite a bit of low level shear to work with, around 30 to 40kts of 0-1km shear. The 850mb winds will also be quite strong, around 40 to 55kts according to the SPC HREF. This amount of wind aloft will have a low chance of making it to the surface right ahead and along the cold front which looks to pass through during the later evening hours on Friday. With the strong shear in place and the cold temperatures aloft, there is potential for some severe hail to occur if storms can develop. Lastly, there is a low tornado potential if storms become surface based as there is a good amount of low level helicity, around 200 to 300 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH based on recent models.

Saturday-Thursday: Warm and Dry for Early Next Week, Cooler with Rain and Snow Chances Midweek

The trough that was responsible for bringing the showers and storms shifts over the Great Lakes. Cooler air filters in behind the cold front leaving temperatures mainly in the low to mid 40s. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph will make feels like temperatures in mid 20s to mid 30s. Warmer, southwest flow aloft returns on Sunday and continues into Monday helping highs to get into the low to mid 60s, with some potential for these warmer temperatures to stick around into Tuesday! Heading into the middle of next week a trough dips down into the Upper Midwest increasing rain and snow chances, currently sitting between 30 and 50%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

MVFR ceilings continue this afternoon as low level moisture remains situated over the region. These ceilings lower overnight, becoming IFR/LIFR after 06z as a weather system moves into the region. This system will bring showers and embedded storms after 09z (75-95%), continuing through the end of the TAF period, but become more scattered in nature during the late morning to early afternoon Friday. MVFR/IFR visibility reductions are expected within any rainfall.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.