textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Limited storm chances this morning primarily west of the Mississippi River Valley quickly decrease as storm potential shifts east. Current confidence for storms breaking up as they traverse the Mississippi River Valley.

- Limited confidence (<20%) in local precipitation/storm chances almost nightly with more moist air seemingly circumnavigating local forecast area.

- High confidence for warmest temperatures through midweek. Degree of warmest temperatures remains forecast challenge, locally affecting location of 90 degree isotherm through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

This Morning Storm Chances:

While main forecast detail continues to be the rising temperatures through the start of the week, low storm/precipitation probabilities frequent the near term forecast. The decreased local confidence can be attributed to persistent anticyclonic low level flow, near the Wabash River Valley on areal VWP plots tonight ebbing its periodic influence west and east. Initial storm chances through early this morning expected on the nose of the low level jet see through Mid Missouri River Valley on nighttime VWPs collocated with axis of enhanced low level moisture with a narrow filament through the Central Plains to a widespread plume across the Upper Mississippi River Valley on GOES derived PWATs. As storms attempt to progress east, drier low level air and decreasing synoptic forcing will cause a weakening trend. Current forecast confidence rapidly decreases as storm potential attempts to traverse the Mississippi River Valley.

Additional, Low Precipitation/Storm Chances:

Similar higher storm confidence west of the forecast area tonight collocated with narrow filament of increased low level moisture and transient questionable filaments of isentropic upglide along low level convergence assisted by nocturnal invigoration of the low level jet appear to split approaching the local forecast area, again due to drier air associated with low level anticyclonic flow influence.

Warm Through Midweek:

Warmer temperatures expected through midweek with limited IQR spread in most recent NBM (25.03Z) nearing and above 90 degrees today through Thursday, a slight increase compared to previous run(s). Unfortunately these higher temperatures continue to appear influenced by bias corrections when compared to raw model inputs, 3- 7 degrees higher depending on exact local locale, with mean BCs aligning with 75th-90th percentile Raw solutions.

Resultant NBM population compared to available models (25.03Z) locally depicts NBM as the 75th, 90th, and 80th percentile solution Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively. Least model spread for Wednesday as confidence is high for WAA from anomalous heights building through the central CONUS. Bias corrected models Tuesday causing a noticeable warm tail with a 10 degree 50th to 90th percentile spread. Therefore, while overall confidence is moderate (50%), degree of warmest temperature (90 degree isotherm), remain the forecast detail to remain cognizant of.

Pattern Potentially Persists Into Next Weekend:

Long term global ensembles and accompanying clusters suggest a quasi Rex block synoptic pattern setting up through the end of the week, perpetuating similar forecast concerns, i.e., low confidence in precipitation and higher confidence in warmer than normal temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Breezy conditions follow the light rain that is falling across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin for the next couple of hours with winds gusting between 35 and 45 mph. These winds decrease this morning but breezy conditions continue through the day with sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Scattered rain showers may continue through the morning. CIGS this morning stay between 7kft and 10kft. Mostly clear skies expected for the afternoon and evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.