textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers will continue to move through the area with pockets of blowing snow possible mostly west of the Mississippi River. The blowing snow potential diminishes this evening. Additional accumulations of 0.5 to 2" will be possible through Saturday morning.

- Light snow on Sunday with a medium chance (50 to 70%) for at least 1" of snow falling along and north of I-90.

- Colder this weekend then turning bitterly cold into Monday where highs will be in the single digits above and below zero. Wind chills on Monday morning will likely be between -20F to -30F for much of the local area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The constantly evolving forecast of the last few days persists this afternoon as bursts of snow on radar have been mostly confined upstream into south-central Minnesota; accompanying the coldest surface temperatures, indicative of steepening lapse rates within the strongest low level CAA. While below freezing surface temperatures west of the Mississippi River Valley in southeast Minnesota limit initial impact concerns as accumulations expected to remain below 1", above freezing air temperatures and near freezing surface temperatures in northeast Iowa and western Wisconsin raise flash freezing concerns through the afternoon as low-mid level frontogenesis is exerting influence on near surface dry air along and north of the Interstate 90 corridor; evident in decreasing cloud top temperatures on GOES infrared satellite imagery. Also evident in darkening cloud bases on webcam imagery from the forecast office. Regardless, higher confidence in snowfall will accompany cold frontal boundary, limiting melting on roadways before subsequent below freezing temperatures.

The surface low jaunts east-northeast tonight, lingering and intensifying a narrow band of low level frontogenesis near/over the forecast area. While nailing down exact location and intensity of this mostly mobile frontogenesis band remains the inherent challenge in snow forecasts, a thick, widespread, near-surface dendritic growth zone suggests accumulating snowfall will be likely. Limited rates and transient forcing limits confidence in overall amounts as highest impacts will remain dependent on frozen roadways- perpetuating travel impacts.

Saturday-Sunday: Colder Air Begins to Move In, Snow Returns Sunday

The trough responsible for the snow today through Saturday morning begins to shift off to the east bringing a very brief period of shortwave ridging to the region. This will make Saturday evening into the early overnight dry. Heading into Sunday morning another shortwave trough dips down into the northern Plains and moves into the Upper Midwest. This is a quite compact wave that in some models does close off in the upper levels, indicating that there will be good lift with this system. Despite this good lift, this system lacks deeper moisture as PWATs generally range from 0.15 to 0.25". The wave is also quick moving so snow amounts will generally be on the lighter side. The bulk of the accumulations look to be along and north of I-90 where 0.5 to 1.0" will be possible. Locations in northeast Iowa and far southwestern Wisconsin will see less than 0.5". Amounts could change based on how far south the wave goes so be sure to monitor for forecast changes.

As this wave translates through the forecast area, the pressure gradient tightens. The timing of when this happens in regards to the falling snow will be important as current forecast soundings have some light snow falling as winds begin to increase. The stronger winds continue from Sunday morning into Monday morning with Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible during this timeframe. If the pressure gradient tightens more, then wind speeds may increase more. Winds will decrease Monday as the parent trough shifts eastward.

Monday-Friday: Bitter Cold Monday, Staying Cold Through the Week

By Monday morning, the arctic air associated with this trough moves into the region. LREF cluster analysis shows 850mb temperatures Monday morning between -23 and -28C. Over the next week, Monday will have the coldest temperatures as the arctic air remains over the area for the day. High temperatures on Monday are in the low single digits above zero with areas north of I-94 staying below zero. Low temperatures Monday morning and again on Tuesday morning are in the single digits below zero across the CWA with some locations north of I-94 in the teens below zero. While the air temperatures remain cold throughout the day, the winds will continue to be blustery through the day. Apparent temperatures for much of the day are expected to range from -10 to -20F, while Monday morning will have apparent temperatures in the -20 to -30F range. LREF probabilities for apparent temperatures less than -25F are between 60 and 90%. Given these feels like temperatures on Monday morning, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed over the next day or so if these values remain.

High temperature stay in the teens to low 20s for the rest of the week as the northern Plains and Upper Midwest remain under a longwave trough that will continuously bring colder air down from Canada. Wind chills for Tuesday morning will also be quite cold with values between -10 and -20F. Periodic snow chances return Tuesday night and linger through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Periodic snow will continue along an 950-850 mb frontogenetic band located over southeast Minnesota and along and south of Interstate 90 in Wisconsin through late Saturday morning. This will impact both KLSE and KRST. Total snow amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches. In addition, it will produce periodic IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.