textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures through the weekend with highs generally in the 60s. Near to slightly below temperatures for next week with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s beginning on Tuesday.

- The next chance (80 to 95%) for widespread showers and storms is on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Today-Sunday: Slightly Above Normal Temperatures, Mostly Dry Conditions

The wave that brought the showers and storms yesterday and early this morning continues to move off to the east. As a result, some lingering rain showers will be possible. These showers will move east and be out of the forecast area by mid morning. As this wave pushes east, a cold front comes in during the early morning hours, ushering in some cold air advection. Temperatures will fall closer to normal, but still slightly above normal with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Tonight into Saturday morning will have the coldest temperatures as locations may dip down into the mid to upper 30s, particularly north of I-94. The NBM does continue to show a 20 to 40% for temperatures to fall below 37F Saturday morning with the highest probabilities north of I-94. While most of the weekend remains dry, there is a weak wave that models continue to show moving into south central Minnesota Saturday morning. There may be some light rain showers as a result that could move into southeast Minnesota and portions of west central Wisconsin during the day.

Sunday Night-Monday: Widespread Rain and Storms Return

The next chance for widespread showers and storms is Sunday night through Monday. A 500mb trough shoots out of the Central Rockies and into the Upper Midwest. The low level jet increases ahead of a warm front bringing increased moisture up into the forecast, NAEFS is showing that the PWATs are in the 90th percentile. Rain looks to move in Monday morning and linger throughout the day. The latest LREF has a 25 to 35% chance of at least 1" of rain across the area, with the NBM showing a 30 to 60% for at least 1" of rain. This forecast has remain similar to the afternoon discussion where the surface low of the parent shortwave shifted its track quite a bit north resulting in this widespread precipitation chance. With the low moving so far north, the warm sector has also shifted north. Now while the morning convection may limit any strong to severe potential, there remains around 500 to 1000 J/kg, based on the 00Z GFS, with 25 to 40 kts of 0-1km shear and 25 to 35 kts of 0-3km shear. This setup also includes a negatively tilted trough and a deepening 500mb trough over the Upper Midwest. All in all this setup is favorable for strong to severe storms to occur, however the convection during the morning may inhibit any severe threat. We will continue to monitor this potential, but confidence is high on widespread rain to occur.

Tuesday-Friday: Cooler with Low Rain Chances

Northwest flow becomes the dominant flow regime beginning on Tuesday as the Upper Midwest sits on the bottom of a longwave trough situated to our north. This will keep temperatures more normal or near normal for this time of year. Highs are generally in the mid to upper 50s with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Within this flow regime, a few impulses move through and increase precipitation chances, however there remains enough uncertainty amongst the long term deterministic and ensemble members that precipitation chances remain under 15% for any given day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

MVFR CIGS continue to move off into central Wisconsin and will be out of western Wisconsin over the next couple of hours. Mostly clear skies expected for the rest of the day and continuing into the overnight. Some mid level clouds begin to move into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin between 09 and 11Z. Breezy northwest winds this morning sustained at 15 to 20 mph and gusts approaching 25 mph. Northwest winds decrease this afternoon and gradually turn more northeast during the overnight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.