textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and early evening in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, and elevated fire weather conditions in western Wisconsin.

- Marginal risk for severe weather on Monday night. the main threat is hail.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

This Afternoon and Early Evening

As deep mixing develops during the mid- to late afternoon, relative humidities will fall into the 15 to 25 percent and sustained southwest winds will range from 15 to 25 mph. The gusts will be 30 to 35 mph east of the Mississippi River, and up to 40 mph in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.

Due to the strong southwest winds, very low relative humidities, and very dry conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and early evening for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Meanwhile, near critical fire weather conditions are expected in western Wisconsin.

Monday night

As the low-levels moisten, mid-latitude lapse rates increase, and most-unstable CAPES climb into the 1500-2000 J/kg, elevated storms will develop during the evening and early overnight. The 1-6 km shear will be sufficient that there could be a few super cell thunderstorms before the cold pools consolidate into multi- cell thunderstorms. As a result, the hail threat will be mainly associated with individual storms. The Storm Prediction Center currently has much of the area under a marginal risk and that seems realistic.

Tuesday and Tuesday Evening

Additional showers and isolated storms will be found along and behind of a cold front on Tuesday and early Tuesday evening. With the better shear post frontal and the better instability being east of area, not expecting any additional severe weather at this time. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 70s.

Wednesday Night into Thursday Night

A low pressure system will move northeast along a frontal boundary to our southeast. Still plenty of uncertainty on how far northwest the deformation band will get. It looks like the boundary temperatures will be warm enough to keep this precipitation mainly rain.

Friday Night into Saturday

As a longwave trough moves east through the Plains, a cold front will move through the region. Warm and moisture advection will result in showers and scattered storms along this front. Both the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear are weak along and ahead of this front, so not anticipating any severe weather with this front at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with LLWS being the main aviation concern this evening and overnight. Winds will increase to around 40-45 kts at around 2kft with an increasing low-level jet but winds aloft will decrease towards dawn. Otherwise, few to bkn upper-level clouds will be present throughout the TAF period with winds remaining southerly at around 10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

As deep mixing develops this afternoon, relative humidities will fall into the 15 to 25 percent and sustained southwest winds will range from 15 to 25 mph. The gusts will be 30 to 35 mph east of the Mississippi River, and up to 40 mph in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.

Due to the strong southwest winds, very low relative humidities, and very dry conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and early evening for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Meanwhile, near critical fire weather conditions are expected in western Wisconsin.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096. IA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030.