textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium-High confidence (60-80%) in narrow 2" to 4" band of snow from southeast Minnesota into far northeast Iowa and parts of southwest Wisconsin through today. Initial, lighter snowfall band grazes northeast Iowa counties early this morning as subsequent, increased snowfall rates slightly farther north take shape through the morning and early afternoon into the evening.

- Sharp cutoff in snowfall expected north and south of narrow band. Confidence in extreme outliers of 6"+ within this narrow band remains low (30%) as 1" to 2" snowfall rates could transiently occur.

- Colder end to the weekend with warmer temperatures returning through early next week. Mixed precipitation chances increase Monday night through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Snowfall Timing Today:

A narrow band of heavier snowfall progressing east through the forecast area through the morning hours and exiting this evening remains the main forecast concern. Early morning satellite, radar, and surface observations depict narrow band of lighter snowfall progressing east over the South Dakota - Minnesota border. This initial band expected to reach the local forecast area in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa early this morning. Subsequent heavier snowfall rates slightly farther north from southeast Minnesota into western and southwest Wisconsin will take shape through the morning hours. The responsible low level frontogenetical band is theoretically setting up over the North/South Dakota border this morning, slightly north of slightly ambiguous surface cyclonic rotation in western South Dakota.

Increased Confidence In Snowfall Band Location:

Fortunately, high resolution model consensus on exact location of frontogenesis and subsequent snowfall has improved over the last few runs. Previous outlying HRRR forecast model exhibited a significant shunt southwest between the 18Z and 00Z runs, advecting 0.1" of 6-hour QPF forecasted for this afternoon from the Interstate 94 corridor in Jackson County, Wisconsin to the Interstate 90 corridor in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Therefore, confidence has increased for location of higher snowfall band of 2" to 4" primarily in southeast Minnesota flirting far northeast Iowa into western and central Wisconsin.

Variability in exact location of narrow and relatively transient frontogenesis band providing higher snowfall rates causes some forecast challenges regarding sharp cutoff between snow and no snow. Furthermore, potential collocation with 5k - 10k ft DGZ thicknesses flirting slightly farther north continue forecast challenges for potential outlying extreme values within this band.

Otherwise, main forecast change was slight extension in preexisting Winter Weather Advisory in collaboration with neighboring forecast offices into the evening hours as high resolution models suggest lingering snowfall through this evening primarily in central Wisconsin before forcing fully exits east of the forecast area. While overall confidence has increased, an AFD update is likely this morning as the center of cyclonic flow further takes shape and subsequent snow bands set up. Upgrades to warnings may still be warranted given forecast challenge regarding potentially higher amounts.

Colder Sunday, Mixed Precipitation Potential Monday Night:

High pressure progresses through the forecast area on Sunday, keeping temperatures slightly below normal with daytime highs in the 20s area wide. While warmer temperatures are expected through the start of the week, stronger return flow will remain well south of the forecast area, keeping overall confidence lower (30-50%) with a quasi-zonal pattern and low level diffluence.

Largest change from previous forecasts is increased probabilities for mixed precipitation Monday night through Tuesday morning. A stronger solution to the mid level synoptic cyclone ejecting northeast through the Central Plains to start the week nearly doubled NBM PoPs over previous run, now grazing 80% across the southern reaches of the local forecast area. Unfortunately, ensemble (27.12Z) sounding plumes suggest all types of precipitation will be possible given warm, moist off low level airmass and the current overnight timing providing surface temperatures near to below freezing. Given the longer forecast hour and near freezing surface temperatures, many details in coming forecast packages will require ironing out as the system evolves.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Confidence in area of heavier snowfall rates affecting both TAF sites (KRST & KLSE) through Saturday morning and afternoon has increased (60%). Therefore, have added FM group of IFR visibilities during timing of higher confidence. Shifts in band are still possible and given the narrow nature of heaviest snowfall, IFR visibilities may lie just north or south of either TAF site. Overall snowfall accumulations from 2" to 4" expected within this narrow band with 6"+ plus possible in spots and sharp cutoffs north and south.

While impacts from snowfall exit east through the evening, MVFR ceilings expected to linger through the end of the 27.06Z TAF period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for IAZ009>011.