textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the new week. The coldest temperatures are expected Thursday morning, when subzero lows are likely (40-95%), leading to wind chills in the double digits below zero. Winds may ramp up around sunrise, leading to dangerously cold wind chills.

- A quick hitting system moves through the Midwest Monday afternoon and evening, which will likely (30-90%) bring flurries and light snow to our forecast area. The chance for more an inch of additional snow is decent (30-70%), but this chance is confined mainly to far southwest Wisconsin.

- Snow may return Wednesday and around next Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold temperatures ahead

Tonight, winds will drop and skies will clear somewhat, allowing for temperatures to fall into the single digits. However, potential for stratus to arrive from central MN and increasing mid to high level clouds late in the nighttime period will limit overall radiative cooling. Therefore, the chance for subzero lows is small (xx-xx% per 30.13z NBM).

Next upper trough slides southeast Wednesday with the associated surface ridge building over IA Wednesday night into Thursday. Re- invigoration of cold air near the surface and clearing skies will likely (40-95%) lead to subzero lows. While winds look to be relatively light as well, they may be enough near sunrise for wind chills to reach -25 west of the Mississippi River valley. This will depend on exact details of where the surface ridge will be centered and how much of a breeze occurs around sunrise as the surface pressure gradient tightens a bit.

Quick shot for snow in northeast Iowa, far southwest Wisconsin Monday

Upper trough currently over UT will advance eastward over IA/MO/IL Monday into Monday night. Short period of modest southerly moist advection should occur ahead of this feature Monday morning, allowing for additional snow to develop as the wave moves east. The wave and best forcing remain well to our south, however some modest lift should still occur in our CWA, particularly in far SW WI and adjacent areas in IA where weak 700mb frontogenesis may be present per 30.12z GFS. Vertical profiles suggest this modest lift will include the DGZ so do think measurable snow is likely (55-90%) southeast of a New Hampton IA to Mauston WI line. Short duration and weak nature of aforementioned lift should limit snow accumulations, although still a decent chance (30-70%) to reach an inch along and southeast of an Oelwein IA to Richland Center WI line.

Additional snow potential Wednesday and around next Saturday

Another quick moving upper trough Wednesday should lead to at least a few flurries and snow showers during the day Wednesday before ushering in the aforementioned reinforcement of cold air. Broad agreement across the 30.12z guidance suite that this will be a decidedly positively tilted trough, a pattern that tends to limit southerly moist advection to the region. This case appears to fit that mold with available moisture supporting flurries as the trough passes. Should it pass during the afternoon, steep low level lapse rates extending to the DGZ could (20-35%) develop, leading to a few snow showers as well.

More neutrally tilted open trough looks to advances eastward sometime around next Saturday. Exact details and timing remain open questions, but if everything comes together, would get enough snow for impacts to roads. Will need to monitor this period over the coming week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Widespread restrictions of some level are forecast over the region tonight. As of 06Z, there are MVFR ceilings along and north of a TOB to ISW line, IFR ceilings west of a LSE to OLZ line and LIFR visibilities developing to the east. Confidence is not the highest on how these restrictions evolve through the night and into the morning, but the current stratus cloud deck should move little through at least the morning and likely longer. Light snow will affect the region between mid-morning and late this afternoon, bringing localized MVFR/IFR visibilities mainly over northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Winds will be generally light through the night and increase to between 5-10 kts from the SSW during the day.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.