textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- First above-normal temperatures since just before Thanksgiving.

- Some rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning...and then some light snow into Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Any snow accumulations will be on the light side.

- Falling temperatures on Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Today and Tonight

A shortwave trough and cold front will be moving southeast through the area this evening. BUFKIT soundings continue to show that the air mass below 600 mb remains very dry. This will result in a broken deck of mid- and high clouds for much of today and this evening. In addition, any precipitation will remain north and northeast of the area. High temperatures will be in the mid- and upper 30s. This will likely be the first day with above-normal since November 26.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night

A northern stream shortwave trough will dig southward through the Northern and Central Plains. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen as it moves east from North Dakota east into Upper Michigan. This will keep the area in the warm sector through much of Thursday morning. Temperatures overnight will range from the upper 20s through mid-30s. On Thursday morning, the models remain in good agreement that the cold front will move east through the region. Temperatures in the wake of this front will fall into the teens and 20s on Thursday afternoon.

At this time, the precipitation from Wednesday night into Thursday morning still looks to be rain. There is a 40-60 percent chance of at least a tenth of an inch and up to a 5 percent chance for at least a quarter of an inch.

On Thursday afternoon and evening, a light band of snow will move east across the area as the deformation band moves east across the region. There are still some questions on how far south this band will get. The Grand Ensemble probabilities for 1 inch or greater of snow is currently 5-30 percent north of Interstate 94 and only up to a 5 percent across the remainder of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions through the afternoon with passing mid to high clouds. Winds will be from the south to southwest with gusts of 20-25kts west of the Mississippi River. Winds will veer to the northwest this evening and overnight before diminishing and backing to the south again towards the end of the TAF period. There is some potential for MVFR ceilings overnight, primarily along and north of I-90, with the 16.12z HREF suggesting a 30-50% probability of ceilings less than 3kft.

Low level wind shear is possible this afternoon into the evening primarily for those along and north of I-94 given low level winds of 35-45kts per RAP/HRRR soundings. Another short period of low level wind shear is possible this evening areawide, generally only an hour or two for a given location, as winds shift to northwest within an increasing low level wind field. However, the overall wind shear magnitude is expected to remain below the 30kts threshold. As such, have not included mentions in the TAFs, but will be something to remain mindful of overnight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.