textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm will impact the area from tonight into Monday morning.

- From tonight into Sunday morning, the precipitation will be primarily snow along and north of Interstate 94. Along Interstate 90, it will start out as snow and then transition to freezing rain and sleet overnight. Finally in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, the precipitation will be mainly rain.

- From Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, the precipitation will be mainly snow. Strong winds in the excess of 35 mph and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will likely produce blizzard conditions across the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Today

The 850-700 mb frontogenetic band currently located from central South Dakota southeast into southeast Iowa will gradually lift northeast today and then start to orientate itself west to east during the late afternoon. This looks to occur primarily along and north of Interstate 94. Initially dry air below 700 mb will preclude the development of snow until mid- and late afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid- and upper 30s north of Interstate 94 and around 40 elsewhere.

Tonight into Sunday Morning

A strengthening surface low will move east through eastern Nebraska and northwest Iowa tonight. This low then continues to move east through northeast Iowa on Sunday morning. Initially during the early evening the snow band will be primarily along and north of the Interstate 94. However, as the 850-700 mb moisture transport increases, snow will start to fall near Interstate 90. Further south in northeast Iowa and southwest, the precipitation should be primarily rain.

During the overnight, a 900 to 700 mb warm nose will move into the Interstate 90 corridor. As this occurs, the precipitation in this area will change from snow to sleet and freezing rain. This ice will then continue into Sunday morning and possibly the early parts of Sunday afternoon. The HREF FRAM indicates ice accumulations between a tenth an inch to around a quarter inch.

North of this band, the snow band will continue through the night and into Sunday morning. Hourly snow rates probabilities will be in the excess of an inch per hour (70-90 percent probability in the SREF). There are even 30-50 percent probabilities for snow rates in the excess of 2 inches per hour. In addition, the probability of 35 knot wind gusts range from 15 to 40 percent overnight and 40 to 70 percent on Sunday morning in the NBM. If this materializes, a Blizzard Warning may be needed.

South of the freezing rain and sleet band, the precipitation will be primarily rain.

Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning

On Sunday afternoon, the surface low moves northeast across Lower Michigan as the shortwave continues to deepen. As this occurs, snow band pivots from west to east to from southwest to northwest. In addition, a deformation band of snow develops southwest. This will lengthen the residency of snow across the area. The SREF is showing a reduction in the 1 inch or greater snow rates to only up to 50 percent. The probabilities of wind gusts in the excess of 35 mph range from 40 to 85 percent. The highest probabilities will be west of the Mississippi River. If this occurs, a Blizzard Warning will be needed for the entire area.

The NBM probabilities of a foot or greater of snow is around 30 percent near Interstate 90, around 50 percent near Interstate 94, and around 85 percent in Clark and Taylor counties. The NBM probabilities for 18 inches or greater of snow is around 5 percent near Interstate 90, around 30 percent near Interstate 94, and around 35 percent in Clark and Taylor counties.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will become MVFR on their way to IFR after 00z Sunday. Initial light snow will ramp up to heavy snow north of a FBL-ISW while, between this line and a line defined by the IA/MN border, a mix of freezing rain and sleet will develop. Winds will tend to be out of the southeast to star the period and become out of the northeast by 12z Sunday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for WIZ054-055. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for WIZ061. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053. MN...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for IAZ008>011. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for IAZ018-019-029-030.