textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- There are rain shower chances (20-40%) for today into Thursday morning and a few snowflakes may mix in early Thursday morning.

- Much cooler conditions are expected Thursday into this upcoming weekend with highs in the 30s to mid 40s.

- The cool down does not last long as a slow warming trend occurs late this weekend into the start of the new work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Today - Friday: Light Precip Chances and Cooling Down

Mid to high level clouds have formed over much of the Upper Midwest early this morning. The increase in cloud cover is associated with increasing mid level moisture out ahead of an H300 trough digging southeast out of the Dakotas. The moisture along with lift provided by the trough should develop precipitation across portions of the area early this morning into the afternoon. Given the progressive nature of the trough and forecast atmospheric profiles not showing deep layer moisture, especially in the lower levels near the surface, only very light rain is anticipated if any showers develop over the area. Forecast rainfall amounts continue to support this trend with most areas very likely staying below a tenth of an inch of accumulation. The best chances for rainfall will be in the morning, however secondary waves may bring additional chances during the afternoon into early Thursday morning. If any showers can develop early Thursday morning, some snow flurries may mix in with the rain since strong CAA will push south over the Great Lakes region. No snow accumulation is expected since the depth of the moisture will be even less than this morning.

Speaking of the colder air, H850 temperatures dipping down to around -5 to -10 Celsius will intrude over the region from Thursday through at least the first half of the weekend. With the much cooler airmass in place, high temperatures will almost certainly fall into the 30s and 40s for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows even have the potential to drop down in the low 20s on Friday night. There is at least medium confidence (50-70%) for locations across MN and west central WI to stay below 40 on Friday and that potential has been increasing, which is not a surprise given the strength of the CAA.

This Weekend - Early Next Week: Dry and Gradual Warming Trend

Just how long the cold air sticks around has become more variable with the newest model guidance. There are models showing the upper level low retrograde back southwest towards the Great Lakes this weekend, keeping the cooler airmass in place for longer than previously anticipated. The main axis of cold air would shift off to the east, but highs may stay below 50 through Sunday and potentially Monday before warming up thereafter. In any case, the upper level pattern will not be favorable for precipitation chances so dry conditions are forecast after Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Light rain continues to move through the area this morning and by the afternoon the rain chances become very low (around 10%). CIGS currently are around 10000ft, but will gradually lower through the morning. By the afternoon, CIGS will range from 3500 to 5500ft. MVFR CIGS are possible (30 to 50%) Thursday morning and if confidence increases then this would need to be added to both TAF sites. Light and variable winds this morning shift to northwest winds this afternoon. Heading into the overnight, the winds increase as sustained winds range from 10 to 15 mph with wind gusts approaching 25 mph.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.