textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional storms expected this afternoon; however, the risk for severe weather has been decreasing.

- A dry start to the weekend with another round of rain Sunday afternoon into Monday.

- Much warmer for the middle to end of next week with highs in the 90s and heat indices expected to crack 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Today: Isolated Severe Storms Remain Possible

Today's severe weather threat continues to look highly conditional and isolated in nature. Having been shunted to the south by yesterday's storms and surface flow tuning more southwesterly this afternoon, there is little impetus for Gulf moisture to surge back north of I-80 today. Residual cloud cover from overnight convection--both to the south/east and west, could stunt daytime solar insolation--though we should clear out by the mid to late morning.

With the surface baroclinic zone displaced to the south, the main key we are not well resolving for convective initiation is a trigger. Forecast profiles from the HRRR/RAP show 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with minimal MLCIN and linear hodographs that should support some organized storm structures (possibly even supercellular in nature). However, there has been a very consistent signal from the overnight HRRR runs that convection will be very limited in coverage and mainly north of I-90. This points to the model struggling to resolve a forcing mechanism. With residual perturbations lingering in the wake of our overnight convection and the potential for initial convective cold pools triggering downstream convection, the timing and locations for storms remains a tough item to pin down.

As noted earlier, the linear hodograph could support cell organization and even cell splitting. This keeps hail on the table, in addition to strong winds should the convective cold pools become organized. Bottom line, while the severe threat looks more conditional and isolated in nature, we cannot fully rule out a rouge severe storm this afternoon if things line up just right.

Saturday - Monday: Warm With More Precipitation Chances

The aforementioned upper trough is expected to push off to the east through the morning hours Saturday with a shortwave ridge building in on the backside. As such, the area should stay mostly dry during the day on Saturday. However, the dry conditions won't last for too long with chances for rain returning again Sunday afternoon into Monday. A high amplitude but overall weak trough begins to move through the southwest flow aloft towards the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. There will be a lot of deep gulf moisture tied to this that will surge north into Monday (and yes this does mean higher dew points...). Forecast pWats by early Monday will be in the 1.5-2 inch range or the 95-99th percentile in both the EC and NAEFS climatology.

This will be some anomalously high moisture that will lead to some efficient rainfall Monday, prompting WPC to include our area in their Marginal Risk for the Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The saving grace is that the lack of a more significant upper wave will mean that shear will be lackluster and the overall threat for severe weather this this activity generally looks to be low. But with this humidity, will also come some more heat. Temperatures through the weekend and into Monday will still be tolerable in the mid to upper 80s but dew points will be on the uptick into the upper 60s the later we get into the weekend so enjoy them while they're still low.

Tuesday - End of Next Week: Trending Hotter and More Humid

Meteorological summer is making its debut across the Driftless Region next week as temperatures finally crack that 90 degree threshold areawide. A substantial upper level ridge is expected to build across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS, increasing geopotential heights and allowing for temperatures to start climbing. NBM highs by late next week are jumping into the mid to upper 90s which may be a bit too high and likely a sign of the warm- dry bias but it may not be horribly unreasonable all things considered.

With dew points expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with continued southerly flow, heat indices are going to definitely be flirting with and likely surpassing that triple digit threshold - which means we may have to think about heat headlines in the not so distant future. Aside from the heat, low rain chances will continue each day given the ample moisture and instability expected to be present across the area. However, given that forcing will be rather nebulous and coming from small scale interactions, predictability this far out is very low so will continue with the broad-brushed blended solution for PoPs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

IFR to LIFR fog and stratus that has been building in the wake of our departing showers this morning should lift and dissipate by 13-15Z. The 15-20Z period looks to have little for aviation impacts before scattered storms start to move in from northwest to southeast, departing before 06Z. Winds will be mainly from the south to southwest at 5-10 kts during the day and becoming light and variable overnight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.