textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warm up from today into early next week with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s for today and the low to mid 40s by Thursday.

- Trending warmer for the upcoming weekend and into early next week with highs generally in the low to mid 50s for areas along and south of I-94.

- Rain and snow chances for Thursday morning continue to lower and shift southwest. There is only a 10 to 20% chance for measurable precipitation for areas along and south of Highway 9 in Iowa. The next widespread precipitation chance looks to be next Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Above Normal Temperatures Into Early Next Week:

A mostly zonal flow aloft remains in place into early next week, however west to southwest flow in the lower levels arrives later this afternoon/evening. Looking at WPC cluster analysis, there is pretty good agreement amongst all 4 clusters that a weak upper level ridge slowly shifts eastward into early next week. As this ridge shifts east and gradually strengthens, temperatures will continue to warm up across the region. Temperatures for today, largely in the mid 30s to low 40s, are looking increasingly likely that they will be the coolest temperatures until midweek next week. By Friday temperatures warm up into the upper 40s to low 50s for most locations south of I-94.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, compared to the previous few days of forecasts, the temperatures have continually warmed up. EFI signals have slightly increased for a few of the days to where starting on Saturday, these values are between 0.7 and 0.85, indicating that these forecasted temperatures are on the higher side of climatological normal. Also, starting on Sunday, there is a Shift of Tails of 0 across the CWA indicating that there are a few outliers that are several degrees warmer. This can be seen by looking at the individual members of both the GEFS and EPS where by Tuesday, around 20% of both the GEFS and EPS have temperatures of at least 60F at La Crosse! Similarly there are a little over 20% of EPS members and 30% of GEFS members that have at least 60F at Rochester for Tuesday!

Precipitation Chances:

Dry conditions for today followed by a weak shortwave that dips down into Iowa Thursday morning. This system has consistently trended drier and weaker over the past few days and has continued to shift further southwest to where only portions of northeast Iowa have any precipitation chance at all (10 to 20%) for areas along and south of Highway 9. The amount of QPF has also dropped and this can be seen by how the HREF probability for at least 0.01 inches of QPF has dropped to only 10 to 20% for these areas. If precipitation does occur, it will likely be in the form of a rain/snow mix with temperatures starting out near 30F at 12Z and rising into the mid 30s by mid morning.

Mostly dry conditions expected from Thursday afternoon through Monday. The next meaningful chance for widespread precipitation comes next Tuesday as both the ensembles and deterministic models support a low ejecting out of the central Rockies and moving into the Upper Midwest. Current LREF probabilities for measurable precipitation is between 55 and 75% from Tuesday into Wednesday. This will be something to watch over the coming days to see the trend in this storm being that it is almost a week away.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Mid level clouds between 10kft and 15kft move into the the region later this afternoon and into the evening. Northwest winds at 5 to 10mph continue through the afternoon then shift to the southeast during the evening/early overnight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.