textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures for today and this weekend with highs in the upper 30s to 40s. Morning lows will likely fall into the 20s for most locations.

- Warming trend into next week with highs returning into the 50s across the area. There is a low chance (10-40%) for highs to reach 60 degrees for the latter half of the week.

- Aside from any isolated flurries or sprinkles (10% chance) across north-central Wisconsin through midday, mostly dry conditions are expected into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

This Weekend: Gradual Warming Trend, Dry

Cold air advection continues for one more day as surface high pressure sinks out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest. This will keep temperatures on the chilly side again in the upper 30s to low 40s. As we head into the weekend, upper-level ridging and the aforementioned surface high building in will allow for some very weak southerly return flow. Consequently, this should allow temperatures to slowly begin on a warming trend with highs returning to the 40s for much of the area for the weekend.

A few snow flurries will remain possible through midday today for portions of North Central Wisconsin given slight low level instability and steep low level lapse rates remaining in place. Low level moisture below 800 mb remains hard to come by but a shortwave perturbation interacting with some of the mid-level moisture fetch from Lake Superior remains enough of a possibility that have kept flurries in the forecast through midday before the upper trough moves off to the east. After this, with the high pressure moving into place, the forecast is expected to remain dry with the LREF grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) showing a 0% chance for any measurable precipitation this weekend.

Next Week: Mild, Dry Start to the Week with Precip Chances Returning Late Week

As we move into next week, upper level ridging will linger overhead for the first half of the week with the surface high pressure remaining predominantly just south to southeast of the region. This will aid in a reinvigorated southerly flow into the local area and thus continue the warming trend through the middle of next week. Highs by Tuesday should return to the 50s areawide with low-end probabilities (10-40%) for highs to meet or exceed 60 degrees Wednesday through Friday via NBM guidance.

In addition to the warmer temperatures, both deterministic and ensemble guidance hint at the upper ridge breaking down by the mid week time frame and a upper level trough pivoting across the Great Plains and into the Midwest by Thursday. With better ensemble agreement in this trough, PoPs have started to increase for the late week timeframe (40-60% by Thursday afternoon). Given that temperatures are expected to be well above normal, this should be an all rain situation for our local area.

As we head past next week, the ensemble mean in the GEFS/EC ensemble would suggest some cooler temperatures heading into the week of Thanksgiving in the wake of the aforementioned upper-level trough, however confidence in any details remains low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

A band of MVFR to VFR CIGS (between 2000 and 4000ft) is currently moving southwest across the region impacting portions of western Wisconsin. This band will get to KLSE and could reach KRST (20 to 40%). Have gone ahead and maintained the BKN deck at KLSE, but have not put in MVFR CIGS as the confidence is not there that the CIGS would drop below 3000ft (30 to 40%). If this deck continues and the MVFR CIGS do occur or appear that they will occur, then both TAF sites would need to be updated. Skies will clear up this evening. Light northerly winds through the TAF period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.