textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms could be severe. Large hail and damaging winds will continue to be the main threats with the tornado threat dependent on amount of destabilization.

- Periodic showers and storms from Thursday into early next week with high temperatures remaining in the 70s for most locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today: Scattered Showers and Storms

The initial round of storms this morning largely stayed south of the forecast area with many locations seeing little to no rain. The majority of the rain fell north of I-94 and our far southern counties within our CWA. Much of the forecast area has remained dry through much of the morning. As we head into through the afternoon a surface low and associated cold front currently over central Minnesota will move southeastward over our area. This will help to bring scattered showers and storms through the afternoon and evening. There remains a potential for severe thunderstorms to occur. With cooler temperatures aloft and strong deep layer shear, around 45 to 60 kts of 0-6km shear, large hail and damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storm. A couple of tornadoes could also be possible given the amount of surface vorticity right along the front and the 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. All precipitation chances end later this evening as the low shifts off to the east. With the heavy rain staying well to our south this morning, the flooding potential has decreased a bit. There still remains some potential for localized flooding due to repeated storms or a heavier storm over a given location. Our current forecasted QPF is between 0.2 to 0.5" for areas in southeast Minnesota and areas along and north of I-90 in Wisconsin. Areas in northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin are generally under 0.25", but this could change as there is a little uncertainty on how far southeast the stronger storms will go.

Thursday: Spotty Showers and Storms

Northwest flow over the area with weak moisture advection will be in place for Thursday. A weak theta-e boundary moves from northwest to southeast across the forecast area during the afternoon. With around 300 to 600 J/kg of MUCAPE, there is a low chance (15 to 25%) for showers and storms to form during the afternoon along this boundary. The last couple of runs from CAMs continue to show increased coverage in these showers and storms so would not be surprised if PoP chances increase for the afternoon.

Friday-Early Next Week: Periodic Shower and Storm Chances

Primarily northwest to west flow aloft continues through at least early next week. Another shortwave moves down into the Upper Midwest on Friday increasing rain chances for the afternoon. The latest LREF has a 60 to 75% chance for measurable rain to occur across the forecast area. The next chance for rain is for Saturday night into Sunday, however this has continued to gradually shift southward. The LREF has around a 40 to 55% chance for measurable rain for areas south of I-90. After a brief break from the rain chances on Monday due to shortwave ridging, another shortwave trough moves down on Tuesday bringing another chance for rain. Temperatures through the forecast period remain mostly in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

TS should continue to decrease in coverage over the next few hours with lingering MVFR ceilings to follow due to remaining moisture. The good news is that northwesterly winds should lead to drying and eventual VFR conditions across the area by midday tomorrow.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.