textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool to start the week with a few flurries possible today.

- A return to near average temperatures for Tuesday through Friday, though exactly how warm will be dictated by which areas have a snow pack.

- A pair of winter systems lurk in the waiting for Tuesday and late Wednesday into Thursday. The main impacts with the Tuesday system look to be north of I-94, with the second system's track further to the south and possibly bringing more widespread impacts to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Through Monday: Cool, Stray Flurries Today

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough diving across the region with the main vort lobe dropping through western Iowa. Upper level diffluence further east over eastern Wisconsin was helping generate light snow, but our forecast area finds itself in a localized area of subsidence between these two features and the clouds/flurries that could have come with this wave never really materialized. However, a second shortwave dropping down the Red River Valley is ushering stratus southward with flurries being reported across parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead. These work through during the day, but the impacts should be minimal. Colder temperatures that have been filtering in throughout the last 36 hours will linger into Monday before the surface ridge passes through and warm air advection can return.

Tuesday: Clipper Wave #1

Upstream upper tropospheric ridging begins to flatten Monday into Tuesday as a 160-kt jet stream crests the ridge and drives into the region. A relatively subtle PV lobe ripples down the downstream flank of the ridge and amplifies as it moves into the Great Lakes. The surface cyclone reflection tracks across northern Minnesota into the Michigan UP, keeping the risk for the highest snow amounts north of the forecast area. The region will find itself in the isentropic ascent/WAA region of the cyclone, limiting the degree of impacts for most the region, though we could sneak out a few inches of snow towards central Wisconsin.

Wednesday Night - Thursday: Clipper Wave #2

There is increasing agreement in the medium range guidance that the second clipper in the wave train will track across the southern portions of the forecast area. Unlike the first clipper, the forecast area will find itself within the deformation zone to the north of the lower tropospheric cyclone and at a greater risk for seeing higher snow amounts. A look at the deterministic and individual ensemble members shows the potential for efficient snowfall rates with a region of negative EPV or upright instability above the DGZ, a scenario not too dissimilar to what we saw last Friday. The big question again is exactly where this narrow band will set up--and the answer will hopefully be further refined over the coming days. This is certainly the next system to keep a careful eye on.

End of the Week: See Saw Temperatures

In the wake of our second clipper system, the longer range ensembles are in very good agreement that a warm front lifts through the region, but how far north and exactly how warm we get will hinge heavily on how much snow is on he ground. Most guidance members have highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. A round of colder air lurks for next weekend, but how cold remains to be seen. The EC ensemble suite is much more robust in the degree of cold air advection with highs tumbling back into the single digits and teens, whereas the GEFS suite is a little less rambunctious (highs in the 20s).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings persist for much of the day and into tonight, with confidence lessening in the coverage of the ceilings as we go through the night. Light flurries move through today, but no impacts to aviation are expected. Winds remain from the northwest at 10-20G20-30kts today, with winds decreasing to 5-10kts by Monday morning.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.