textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain chances Saturday morning and Sunday night primarily in central Wisconsin locally with limited impacts expected. Subsequent widespread precipitation chances Tuesday has low confidence in location and storm potential at current forecast hour.

- Warming into early next week and again late next week into the weekend with potential for record warmth across the Upper Midwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Limited Precipitation Confidence, Periods of Warming Next Week:

Outside of light rain/shower potential primarily along and east of the Mississippi River Valley Saturday morning and Sunday night, main forecast narrative will be increasing temperatures into early next week and again later in the week, separated by subsequent, locally widespread heavy rain/storm chances Tuesday.

Record Warmth Possible Late Next Week:

An amplified upper level ridge reaching the Pacific West Coast will be responsible for the warming temperatures through much of the longer term period as LREF cluster analysis suggests 90th percentile (SPC RAOB Climatology at MPX) mid level heights of 576+ dam progressing through the Upper Midwest next week. While LREF cluster analysis all exhibit these anomalous heights and accompanying warming temperatures at some point through the week, accompanying spread in timing of global synoptic progression and ridge ridge abounds within and between clusters and individual ensembles. Therefore, NBM 25th- 75th spread pushes 10F-15F through late next week when record warmth may be possible.

Before then, near seasonable daytime highs initially peak Tuesday with overnight lows flirting with Frost/Freeze headlines primarily in central Wisconsin Saturday and Sunday night.

Heavy Rain & Storm Potential Tuesday:

A stout perturbation rides and sags southeast within ridge appendages through the Upper Midwest Tuesday, ushering in local precipitation chances. Current forecast confidence remains low as LREF cluster analysis disagrees on resultant timing and strength of perturbation interacting with the ridge, phasing farther north in GEFS-influenced members while bifurcating the local forecast area in EPS-influenced members. Furthermore, limited temporal duration weakens local confidence as LREF clusters show a narrow band of 75th percentile 0.8" PWATs quickly progressing southeast through the central CONUS as the wave progresses. Resultant 25th to 75th 24 hour QPF values vary from 0.1" to 1" within and between individual LREF members and clusters. Diurnal timing limits local instability in nearly all LREF members as well, limiting confidence in local storms. Should a later solution to the synoptic pattern take shape, diurnally building instability along a quickly progressing frontal boundary would quickly change local storm potential.

Otherwise low rain/shower potential again east of the Mississippi River Valley Sunday night as large synoptic low grazes a lobe of positive mid level vorticity advection as it progresses east.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A shortwave trough will move southeast through the area this morning. There will be isolated to scattered showers, but confidence remains low whether they will affect the TAF sites. If they happen to occur, there will likely be no reduction to visibilities.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.