textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread low precipitation chances (15 to 30%) for Thursday as a cold front moves through the area with higher chances (50 to 75%) for precipitation in north central Wisconsin and far southwest Wisconsin.

- Low chances (10-30%) for snow showers north of I-94 Friday from quick hitting clipper system. Accumulations will be light.

- Fluctuating temperatures into the weekend with highs in the 50s for Thursday, upper 30s to low 40s for Friday, then rebounding into the 50s and 60s for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Precipitation Chances Through Early Next Week

A cluster of mid level moisture is riding east/southeast along a weak boundary into northwestern Wisconsin late this evening. As the more stout moisture moves in late overnight into tomorrow morning, this will keep a steady stream of light showers over North Central Wisconsin through tomorrow afternoon. Further south, southerly winds have brought in some modest low level moisture but a fairly stout dry layer remains around 850 mb via both observed and model soundings. As such, showers will be a bit harder to come by until the cold front drops south through the area. It isn't until the front makes it to far Southwest Wisconsin that the elevated frontogenesis catches up with the surface front (around 18Z) and allows convection to become a bit more organized/causes PoPs to increase. As the front continues south through the afternoon, precipitation chances will gradually come to an end with most places dry by 00Z Friday. Neither the batch of rain across North Central Wisconsin or the showers down in Southwest Wisconsin/Northeast Iowa look to be particularly potent QPF-wise. Probabilities for 0.25 inches or more of rain with the 25.12 LREF and 26.01 NBM are between 30-50% for the Chimney where the steady stream of light showers through tomorrow afternoon will help totals climb a bit higher than previous forecasts. Those probabilities drop to less than 20% for the cluster of showers further south across far Southwestern Wisconsin. Totals there are more likely in the few hundreths to one tenth of an inch range.

Shortly after the rain moves out, a trailing shortwave will sweep through the Upper Midwest/Northern Great Lakes and create some light snow chances, mainly for areas north of I-94 Friday. Hi-res guidance indicates some of these could be more convective snow showers as a wing of warm air advection moves overhead. PoPs are currently on the low side (10-30%), largely due to spatial uncertainty given the rather nebulous forcing for the snow. Any accumulations with this would be light as this looks to be a quick hitting system that is out of our hair by 00z Saturday. The weekend looks to stay dry as a surface high pressure drops into the region. Precipitation chances return by early next week as the upper high over the Southern CONUS breaks down and allows flow to become more zonal over the region. Most members of both the GEFS and EC ENS have rain and measurable QPF returning to the area starting late Monday and continuing through the week. While it's a bit too far to get into the specifics on how much rain this will be or if there be thunderstorms, this does look like the next promising batch of meaningful precipitation for much of the area.

Rollercoaster Temperatures

While temperatures were beautiful in the 60s to lower 70s today, we'll have to say goodbye to this for at least a few days. With the cold front moving through the area tomorrow, north winds will ramp up by the afternoon and cold air advection will start to take hold. Highs tomorrow will still be decent in the 50s to low 60s for most but will sink into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Friday. Thankfully, this cold will be rather short lived as the surface high pressure slides off to the southeast, allowing for southerly winds to return by Saturday, helping our temperatures to slowly recover. By Sunday, highs will be back in the 60s with some locations flirting with 70 degrees by Monday. Temperatures look to moderate by mid-week into the 50s and low 60s given the chances for rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Other than strengthening northerly winds through Thursday, temporary MVFR-IFR ceilings expected across the local forecast area initially Thursday afternoon central Wisconsin, sagging south through the evening. Initial, higher (30-60%) precipitation chances remain north of both local TAF sites (KLSE/KRST) this morning, primarily affecting KMDZ/KBCK. Subsequent precipitation chances (20-40%) remain just south of both TAF sites, affecting smaller airports from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.

Expect aviation impacts to alleviate through the end of the 26.06Z TAF period. Strong winds return Friday and Saturday, strongest west of the Mississippi River Valley.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A few rivers are still seeing rises or are still running at elevated levels due to the rapid snow melt. Currently the Black River at Galesville and the Yellow River at Necedah are seeing these elevated levels. Both of these sites are in the minor flood stage. These levels will gradually decrease over the next few days as minimal rain is expected on Thursday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.