textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- A chilly Thanksgiving is in store with highs topping out in the upper 20s and wind chills in the teens. Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible this afternoon (20-30%) mainly along and east of the Mississippi River, but impacts will be minimal.

- A winter system moves through the region Friday night through Saturday night providing a prolonged period of accumulating snow. Probabilities for 6+" of snow are 70-90%, highest along and south of I-90. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued, so continue to monitor the forecast!

- Cold temperatures remain through next week with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s. Overnight lows fall into the single digits above and below zero by the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 421 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Thanksgiving Day

With the bulk of yesterday's winter system moved off to eastern Canada, quieter conditions are expected for Turkey Day. However, chilly conditions are in store as high temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 20s. Breezy northwest winds are also expected through the day with gusts of 20-30mph associated with an increased low level synoptic wind field remaining situated over the region which will result in wind chills in the teens. Make sure you're prepared if spending time outdoors for the holiday!

In addition the cold temperatures and breezy winds, there is the potential for some isolated to scattered snow showers late this morning through the afternoon (10-30%) primarily along and east of the Mississippi River as low level cold air advection results in 0-2km lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/km and upwards of 40 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE reaching into a saturated DGZ. Impacts should be minimal, but could see some light accumulations in more vigorous showers.

Winter System Potential Friday night through Saturday

A 500hPa shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest this morning, quickly translating southeastward and invigorating cyclogenesis over the Great Plains on Friday. In response, a low pressure system develops, moving northeastward through the Midwest Friday night through Saturday, shifting eastward on Sunday.

Warm air advects northward into the region as this low develops along with a band of 850-700hpa frontogenesis. These features should lead to snow developing across the region by Friday night as thermal profiles are depicted to be below freezing throughout the column. Snowfall rates are expected to be highest with this frontogenesis band, but it quickly dissipates Saturday morning. Synoptic forcing in the form of warm air advection and isentropic ascent on the 275-285k surface then becomes the primary supporting features for additional snowfall through the day Saturday with light to moderate snowfall rates through much of the event.

A southward shift in the track of this low is noted over the past 24 hours which has subsequently shifted the axis of highest snowfall probabilities further south. The 27.01z NBM continues to indicate high probabilities for snowfall amounts greater than 6 inches (70-90%), but now highlights northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin as the favored location of this axis of higher potential. This southern trend is in agreement with the 27.00z LREF as nearly 75% of the members are clustered on this or a very similar solution. Overall, amounts are currently expected to be highest along and south of I-90 and as such a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas.

All this said, the bottom line is a prolonged period of accumulating snowfall is expected Friday night through Saturday night with 70-90% probabilities of 6+" snowfall totals. This snowfall could impact post-Thanksgiving travel, especially on less traveled roads. Continue to monitor the forecast as the track of the storm and subsequent impacts could continue to shift as we get closer to Friday night.

Cold Temperatures

In the wake of this weekend's system, northwest flow ushers another cold airmass into the region, reinforcing the already cold temperatures in place. High temperatures will only climb into the teens to mid 20s through early next week with overnight lows falling into the single digits both above and below zero. There is some uncertainty in the ultimate temperatures realized as the 10th-90th temperature spread in the 27.01z NBM sits around 5-10F through Tuesday. This uncertainty largely lies with how the expected snowpack from this weekend's snowfall develops, although the 90th percentile for high temperatures sits well below freezing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Widespread high MVFR/low VFR ceilings persist for much of the period, though several upstream breaks in the stratus noted in central MN may give us brief periods of clearer skies today. Ceilings may begin to scatter out overnight, but confidence is low at the present time as to the degree of clearing. Scattered snow showers are expected this afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River, but aviation impacts will be minimal. Northwesterly winds remain in the 10-20G15-25kts range through the daytime hours and decrease to around 10kts tonight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for WIZ041-042-053>055-061. MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for MNZ086>088-094>096. IA...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.