textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain is forecast Today through Thursday with a moderate to high chance (40-80%) for totals to reach or exceed 1 inch.

- Temperatures remain above normal for highs and lows through mid week before slowly decreasing next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today through Thursday: Widespread Rainfall

Rain is forecast to continue across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa from today through Thursday. An upper level trough and low pressure system are continuing to move east through mid week. An H500 center of low pressure will trek northeast and is likely to rest over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday into Thursday. Model ensemble guidance depicts this scenario well with the newest forecast cycle.

The pattern mentioned above will lead to multiple rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms, with the first round already underway at the time of this writing. The latest HREF continues to depict the areas of heaviest rainfall from today through Thursday to the northwest of the region (southeast ND into northern MN) and an additional area to the south (mainly central/eastern IA). However, the southern area of higher rain totals may still extend into the CWA, especially if scenarios such as the RAP, NAM, and NAMNest pan out, which result in a widespread 1 inch or more of rainfall during this time frame. HREF and REFS mean rainfall totals through Wednesday morning still depict a widespread 0.75-1 inch, with the highest totals for our forecast area south of I-90 where there is a 10-30 percent chance for rainfall totals to exceed 2 inches. South of I-90 is also the area that has the highest potential for thunder (roughly 10-30% according to the NBM) so if any convective processes can be achieved, they could lead to slightly heavier rainfall rates.

Given the aforementioned low pressure system slows down and remains over the Upper Midwest into Thursday, wrap around moisture should lead to continued chances for showers. Forecast models are in good agreement that the surface low will stay just to the northwest or north of the forecast area on Thursday, so the northern half of the area will have the higher chances for rainfall during the day. As the synoptic and surface lows exit to the northeast on Thursday afternoon into the evening, the rain potential will decrease from west to east going into Friday morning. Temperatures today and Tuesday should top out in the 60s, which is above average for early November. However, those temperatures will begin to decrease on Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level low wraps colder air in over the Driftless Region.

Friday into the Weekend: Trending Drier and Cooler

Zonal flow takes over on Saturday before another trough digs south into the Upper Midwest during the second half of this next weekend. This trough may bring additional chances (15-20%) for precipitation late Saturday into Sunday after a mostly dry day on Friday. The trough will also usher in a secondary, reinforcing cooler airmass that will keep temperatures down near average next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected throughout much of the TAF period as a weather disturbance continues to bring periods of rainfall to the region. Consequently, the latest HREF/NBH has very high probabilities (70-100%) for IFR cigs throughout most of the TAF period. Additionally, given the widespread shower activity, thinking that visibilities under 3 miles will be possible with any heavier showers. Shower activity is expected to persist throughout much of the TAF period across the bulk of the region as suggested across all of the CAMs. Winds will generally remain around 10-15 kts from the south through tomorrow afternoon before diminish slightly towards 00z Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Record Warm Low Potential Tuesday (Nov 3):

Record Warm Low (Year) Forecast Low Temp ----------------------------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 55 (1956)59 F La Crosse, WI 58 (2022) 61 F

In fact, the forecast record warm lows for both Rochester and La Crosse would break the all time monthly November record warm lows if they pan out. The current monthly November records are as follows:

Rochester, MN: 57 (Nov. 1938) La Crosse, WI: 60 (Nov. 1938 and 2020)

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.