textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions are expected today with gusts up to around 35 mph and a chance (up to 15 percent) for a 40 mph gust west of the Mississippi Valley in southeast Minnesota.

- Near-record to record warmth possible this weekend.

- Rain chances (anywhere from 30-70 percent) from Monday afternoon into Monday night. Highest rain chances north of Interstate 94.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Today into Tonight - Breezy with near-record or record warmth

A deepening low pressure system will move northeast of the Canadian Prairies through tonight. The track of this low is a bit further northwest as a result, the stronger 850 mb winds are a bit lower than what they looked like on Friday. South wind gusts will still range from 25 to 35 mph with the highest over southeast Minnesota0 (40-80 percent in the 10.00z HREF) for 35 mph or higher gusts. The probability of wind gust of 45 mph or greater have dropped to 0 percent and the probability of 40 mph or greater is only up to 15 percent for today. There is an interesting increase in the 10.00z HREF wind gusts probabilities of over 45 mph (30-60%) in southeast Minnesota between 9 PM and 3 AM tonight. If this trend continues, we might need a Wind Advisory for this time period.

Southwest winds aloft will bring unusually warm 850 mb temperatures (18 to 21C) northward into the region. With temperatures anomalies anywhere from 2 to 2.5 standard deviation above-normal, high temperatures will be near-record to record in the lower and mid-80s. With breezy southwest winds tonight, low temperatures will only fall into the lower and mid-60s. Due to this, there could be some warm low temperatures for Sunday.

Sunday into Sunday night - More record warmth possible

Like Saturday, 850 mb temperatures will range from 18 to 21C. These temperatures are once again 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above-normal. With high temperatures in the lower and mid-80s, temperatures will once again be near-record or record. The well-above normal warmth will continue with Sunday night with low temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s.

Monday Afternoon into Monday Night - Small rain chances

A cold front will move through the region on Monday night. Like the past couple of days, there is some concern on how saturated it will become below 700 mb along and south of Interstate 94 are only 20-30 percent. Meanwhile, there looks to be much deeper saturation north of Interstate 94. This results in much higher precipitation chances of 30-70 percent in this area.

With the front arriving a bit later in the day, high temperatures were increased and they now range from the mid-70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday through Friday

There might be some precipitation from Thursday into Friday as a trough moves through the region, but confidence on the timing and even how far south it will extend are highly uncertain.

Temperatures will be more seasonable with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s and low temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to lower 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at the terminals. Southerly winds will increase even more during the morning hours with gusts to between 25-32kts expected at the terminals through the afternoon. Gusts should taper off at KLSE but sustained speeds will remain elevated between 10-15 kts into the evening. Gusts at KRST will continue through the end of the period but should peak during the afternoon hours. LLWS at the terminals overnight tonight and tomorrow evening is expected to remain below the 30 kt threshold but low level turbulence should be anticipated.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Record or near record temperatures (Record/Forecast):

La Crosse, WI

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/10 86F(1928) / 86F 64F (1880) / 59F 10/11 86F(1928) / 86F 66F (1928) / 64F

Rochester, MN

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/10 85F(1930) / 84F 59F (1893, 1930, 1973) / 57F 10/11 84F(2015) / 84F 65F (1928) / 65F

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.