textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Low precipitation chances (20 to 30%) for Thursday as a cold front moves through the area.

- Brief cool down Friday behind the cold front with warming temperatures and dry conditions through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Tuesday - Wednesday: Warming Trend

A weak upper level impulse is currently trekking east/southeast through the region, creating some light returns on radar as it interacts with some moisture aloft. However, most of this is not reaching the ground given the very dry sub-cloud layer present on both observed and hi-resolution model soundings. After this moves off to the east late overnight, a dry forecast will prevail through the day tomorrow and Wednesday. Surface winds have already turned to the south and will continue in a general south to southwesterly direction over the next couple of days. This will allow for warmer air to gradually work its way into the area. Highs for Tuesday will be in the 50s areawide with upper 50s to 60s looking likely for Wednesday.

Thursday - Early Next Week: Cold Front, Drying Out and Warming Up

The aforementioned southerly low level flow will not just help to increase temperatures across the area, it will also allow for deeper moisture to work its way north. PWats by early Thursday morning will already be in the 0.7-1.0 inch range. Combine this increase in moisture with a southward advancing cold front and this will allow for some precipitation chances across the region Thursday. These don't look to be particularly potent chances for rain with PoPs capped at around 30%, slightly lower from previous forecasts. If we do see these showers develop, they will likely be light overall with probabilities from both the 23.12 LREF and 24.01 NBM for accumulations greater than 0.05 inches less than 15% outside of far southeastern Grant County near Dubuque, IA. Should the front move a slower than currently expected and arrive later in the day, we could see an increase in moisture and instability across southern portions of the region, allowing for some more robust showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder (MUCAPEs up to 300 J/kg). However, this looks like a low probability outcome overall with only a few ensemble members in the GEFS and EC ENS taking this slower front route.

Temperatures Thursday will remain on the warmer side in the mid 50s to 60s, despite the post-frontal northerly winds, as the cooler air will looks to lag behind a bit. The change in temperatures will be much more noticeable Thursday night and especially Friday, where high temperatures will be between 15-25 degrees cooler from the days before in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Dry conditions will also return as a strong 1040mb surface high drops south out of the Canadian Plains into the Upper Midwest/Mississippi River Valley. We'll be under this high's influence through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures should warm back into the 50s to low 60s by Sunday afternoon. The next chances for precipitation after Thursday don't look to come until Monday night/Tuesday next week, depending on how the upper level high across the Southern CONUS evolves through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

As two low pressure systems pass to our north (one this morning and another one tonight), broken mid- and high clouds will move through the region. The winds will be south and southeast at 10 to 15 knots.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Snowmelt has led to rises on area rivers and streams over the past week due to the 1 to 2 feet of snow that occurred a week ago. The basins that have seen the highest rises are the Black and Yellow River basins. Some gages have reached or are forecasted to reach Minor Flood stage with a few more hitting Action stage. Minimal precipitation is expected through the rest of the week so there will not be a lot of additional water to add to these basins.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.