textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record to record temperatures continue into Today.

- Rain possible on Monday afternoon along and north of Interstate 90. Kept the 30-60 percent rain chances for Monday night north of Interstate 94. However, the latest CAMs are indicating that these rain chances might end up being to our north and northeast.

- Rain chances will be possible south of Interstate 90 from Tuesday night into Wednesday and across the entire area from Wednesday night into Thursday night.

- Much cold temperatures (mid-20s to mid-30s) expected on Friday night. This could bring an end to the growing season for some.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Today

South and southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue to bring well-above normal temperatures into the region. 850 mb temperatures will range from 15 to 20C. These are 2.5 to 3.2 standard deviations above-normal in the NAEFS and ECMWF ESAT. As a result, we will likely see another day with near-record and record high temperatures in the 80s.

As warm air and moisture advection moves into areas along and north of Interstate 90, the CAMs are indicating that there may be a band of showers during the afternoon. If they did happen to occur, rainfall amounts would range from a trace to a tenth of an inch.

Tonight

A cold front will move through the area. The NBM continues to indicate a 30 to 60 percent chance of showers along and north of Interstate 94. The CAMs are trending drier and drier as the better forcing and 850 mb moisture transport is more to our north and northeast.

With the front not reaching the Interstate 90 corridor until around 1 AM, there will be potential for some daily warm records to be either tied or broken for October 12. Low temperatures by sunrise on Tuesday will range from the mid-50s to mid-60s.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night

A low pressure system moves northeast along the cold front to our south. Some of this moisture is streaming north from the remnants of Hurricane Simon. Like the past couple of days, the GFS is a bit further north than the ECMWF with this front. As a result, there remains much uncertainty on whether any of this rain will be able to get as far north as northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

High temperatures will be in the 60s on Wednesday. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 50s.

Thursday into Friday

The models are indicating that there will be some phasing of northern and southern stream shortwave troughs over the Upper and Mid Mississippi River Valleys. A surface low will track to our south and southeast. Meanwhile, the northern stream shortwave will bring some precipitation northward into our area. This precipitation will be on the light side with the probabilities of precipitation totals greater than a tenth of an inch less than 30 percent.

In the wake of this trough, colder air will move into the area. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s and range from the mid-20s to mid-30s on Friday night. This could bring an end to the growing season for some areas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with winds remaining from the south at around 8-12 kts through the daytime hours. Eventually, a cold frontal passage later into the evening will switch the wind direction to northwesterly with winds maintaining around 8-12 kts. Some MVFR cigs cannot be ruled out (20-40% in the recent HREF) after 06z Tuesday at KRST behind the aforementioned cold front. However, confidence remained too low to include any MVFR mention in the TAF at this time as probabilities increase for MVFR cigs after 12z Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Record warm temperature information for Today.

La Crosse, WI (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/12 87F (1995) / 86F 65F (1896) / 68F

Rochester, MN (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/12 85F (1975) / 87F 61F (2008) / 66F

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.