textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system brings light snow today with the main impacts north of I-94 with snow amounts of 1-2 inches.

- Snow risk for Wednesday night is still trending southward and there is an increasing chance (40-60%) that the snow stays south of the forecast area completely.

- Still looking warmer for Friday with highs in the 40s to even low 50s, but areas with a snowpack may not realize all of this warmth.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today: Fast Moving Band of Snow, Maybe Wintry Mix South?

Our incoming clipper system is diving across the MN/Canadian border and rapidly tracks through the forecast area later this morning and early afternoon before departing prior to sunset. Overall snow amounts north of I-94 have not changed much from the previous forecasts with impacts limited owing to the fast progression of the system.

Further south, strong dynamics from a 170-kt jet streak are providing ample lift in the middle to upper troposphere, but the lack of moisture in the lower troposphere makes it tough to say if any precipitation will occur. There looks to be a narrow 1-2 hour window at any given location southwest of I-94 in which precipitation could reach the surface. The issue further south is the presence of a +3 to +6 C warm nose that could result in the initial precipitation falling as freezing rain. The profiles would quickly wet bulb below freezing (and by that time the window for precip would be closing), so impacts are expected to be very minimal, if anything.

Wednesday Night: Snow Trending South, Weaker

Southern trends with the placement of Wednesday night's snow band noted over the last 24-36 hours continue to pan out with the an increasing number of ensemble members coming in dry across all but the very far southern forecast area. About 50% of the GEFS members continue to hold onto the band in northeast Iowa but more members (including the deterministic GFS) are joining the EPS club with each passing run. Have trended PoPs back accordingly and would not be surprised if the system missed the area entirely.

Temperature Trends for the Week

Temperatures seesaw over the next few days as our pair of weather systems move through the region. WAA ahead of today's system boosts highs into the low to mid 30s, followed by the cold front tonight that sends highs back into the 20s for Wednesday. With our Wednesday night system trending south, we start to see a Pacific/downslope airmass spread eastward off the High Plains and result in high temperatures surging for Friday. Just how warm will be dictated by our snowpack, but areas of lower snow coverage will see highs in the 40s to maybe even near 50. These warmer temperatures will be short-lived as a cold front slams southward and sends highs back into the 20s/30s for the weekend (with a 20-30% chance that highs don't make it out of the teens).

The weekend also features our next chance of seeing measurable snow courtesy of an elongated frontogenesis band that sets up from west to east through the region. Given the narrow mesoscale nature of the forcing it is tough to nail down much for specifics at this time, though it is more a matter of where, not if, this snow occurs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A fast moving band of snow will bring MVFR to IFR conditions later this morning and early afternoon along and north of an EAU to ISW line. MVFR stratus looks to linger north of this line after the snow ends and into the night, with the probabilities for VFR conditions increasing south of this line (currently a 30-50% chance of MVFR ceilings at LSE/RST overnight).

Winds increase out of the south this morning, reaching speeds of 10-20G20-30kts by mid-morning, with low-lying locales seeing the risk for LLWS early this morning before these winds mix to the surface. The winds back to the northwest in the afternoon/evening and remain at 10-15G15-20kts range into the night. These northwest winds further decrease to 5-10 kts during the day on Wednesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.