textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmth returns for the new week with daytime highs from the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Widespread precipitation chances return to the local area Tuesday evening, lasting through Wednesday morning. Initial rainfall switches to snow overnight Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Warmer Through Start of New Week:

The cold front over and impending upon the forecast area early this afternoon progresses east tonight, allowing return flow to usher in warmer temperatures for the start of the new week with daytime highs from the upper 50s to low 60s. Current confidence in limited area of precipitation from west-central into central Wisconsin with increasing moisture is low (<15%) due to entrained drier lower level air and ambiguous forcing. While the RAP (07.15Z) forecast model suggests a band of low level frontogenesis enhancing Sunday night into Monday morning, accompanying soundings lack any saturation. Therefore, have not added or included precipitation potential to start the week.

Widespread Precipitation Tuesday Evening Through Wednesday Morning:

A closing upper level low seen on looped water vapor imagery near the Baja of California rejoins parent synoptic flow through the start of the week, ushering in widespread preciptiation chances across the Upper Mississippi River Valley initially Tuesday evening. The initially locally confluent pattern results in highest LREF precipitation probabilities (100% for 0.01" QPF / 24 hrs) marrying along the eastern half of the forecast area through Tuesday in central Wisconsin, spreading south and west overnight through Wednesday morning.

While LREF model confidence and accompanying dProg/dt for this strong wave progressing through the forecast area is strong, cyclogenesis along a southwest-northeast oriented low level baroclinic boundary through the Upper Midwest will determine location and residence of enhanced forcing potentially providing higher snowfall totals than 50-70% probabilities for 3" over 24 hours as suggested in most recent GEFS (07.12Z). EPS solution suggests a quicker progression and exit, keeping similar temporal probabilities for 1" of 30-50%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Duration of ongoing IFR-MVFR ceilings remains immediate aviation concern into tonight. Highest confidence for MVFR-IFR impacts lingering in central Wisconsin through tonight.

Strengthening nocturnal LLJ ushers in short bout of LLWS from west to east before surface winds increase, realizing low-level turbulence across the forecast area.

Widespread precipitation chances increase Tuesday evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.