textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain above normal through Tuesday before colder air moves in Wednesday into the beginning of next weekend.

- Looking mainly dry over the next seven days, however, there are low to medium chances (20-45%) for light accumulating precipitation on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Today through Tuesday: Dry and Above Normal Temperatures

Mild fall weather continues for today and Tuesday across the Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure is progged to remain over the region on both days which will keep conditions dry for both of these days. Temperatures will continue to remain above normal as H850 forecast temperatures are in the 8-10 Celsius range. The latest 08/01z NBM indicates medium to high (60-95%) chances for highs to reach or exceed 60 degrees today for areas along and south of I-94. That potential decreases a bit on Tuesday and the spacial coverage of those probabilities greatly decreases. Mid level moisture increases this afternoon and once again on Tuesday afternoon, leading to cloud cover on both days. The cloud cover lingers into Wednesday morning out ahead of an upper level trough digging south.

Wednesday and Thursday: Light Rain Chances and a Cool Down

An H300 trough will dig south out of Canada mid-week, leading to chances for light preciptiation and much cooler temperatures. The surface low pressure system associated with the trough is expected to pass just to the south of the region. The lift provided by this weather system should generate light preciptiation on the northern side of the surface low on Wednesday. The potential that he precipitation remains light is very high and the newest NBM indicates that the 90th percentile precipitation amounts up to 0.25-0.35 inches. These amounts have come up slightly, likely in response to higher confidence in at least some precipitation across the area. Light rain is the favored precipitation type with this system as model guidance indicates the push of cold air is not well timed with the majority of the precipitation. If some light precipitation can linger into Wednesday night or Thursday, this would the be timeframe for the potential for some snowflakes to mix in. No accumulation of any wintry precipitation is expected even if light snow were to occur.

The cold air mass will be firmly in place over the Upper Midwest throughout the day on Thursday. H850 temperatures are expected to drop down to around -5 to -8 Celsius during the day. Current NBM highs for Thursday are in the low to mid 40s, but I would not be surprised if those are a bit too high given NBM bias correction leaning temperatures on the warm side given how warm we have been recently.

Next Weekend: High Pressure Sets In

A Canadian high pressure is expected to sink south into the Upper Midwest by Friday, dominating much of the weather pattern across the Central CONUS by Saturday. This will keep conditions dry so apart from the light rain chances on Wednesday, a dry forecast is on tap for the area through at least next Monday. Temperatures will be at their coolest Thursday into Friday with some recovery expected by Saturday into the upper 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period. The one exception would be if fog develops overnight, currently a 20 to 30% of occurring. With probabilities for fog decreasing due to increasing high level clouds early this morning, have taken out any visibility reductions in the KLSE TAF. These high level clouds (between 20kft and 25kft) stick around through the morning before skies become clear for the rest of the TAF period. Light southwest winds early this morning becoming gusty during the late morning through the mid-afternoon with sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. These winds decrease during the later afternoon and begin to switch back to the northwest during the evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.