textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (20%) for rain showers late this afternoon into this evening and, for areas around and south of US Highway 18, a thunderstorm.

- Very high (80-95%) chance for rainfall Thursday with no impacts currently expected.

- Much colder temperatures (mid-20s to mid-30s) expected on Friday night. This bring an end to the growing season for some, particularly north of I-94 (20-45% chance to fall below 28).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Low potential for showers and a rumble of thunder this afternoon/evening

This afternoon into the evening, area of 850mb WAA currently over central IA will sneak into far southwestern WI and adjacent areas of northeast IA. With steep lapse rates in the 750-500mb layer per the 13.18z DVN RAOb, a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop. That said, continued capping concerns even when lifting the most unstable parcel suggest limited (20%) potential. Farther north, an upper disturbance may (20%) kick off a light shower or two in the evening. Either way, am not expecting strong or severe hail/winds in our CWA due to the aforementioned limited instability.

Very high chance for rain Thursday

Upper low currently over southern Nevada will trek northeastward during the middle of the week, phasing with a northern stream wave as it moves over the central and northern Plains on Thursday with the combined upper trough advancing over WI late Thursday night. Associated surface low will develop in the TX Panhandle and quickly move toward the Great Lakes. Southern stream upper low looks to bring a good amount of moisture with it so, while low level moist advection from the Gulf will be limited in time within our CWA, will very likely (80-95%) get rain Thursday regardless. 13.13z NBM mean amounts are around a half inch and max 24 hour rain amounts across guidance are around 3", too low for flooding concerns. Thus, am not expecting much in the way of impacts with this system.

Frost and freeze possible Saturday morning

Broad surface high builds in the wake of Thursday's upper trough with clearing skies and light winds leading to excellent radiational cooling across a wide swath of the Midwest. In our forecast area temperatures should tumble into the 30s with some 20s possible in our northeast. That said, am still concerned that we may struggle to fall as far as would otherwise be possible given 13.12z cycle guidance continuing to show a light surface pressure gradient and thus a light breeze being maintained through the night. While a frost appears very likely (70-100%) with a good chance for a freeze (40-90%), the potential (20-50%) to drop below 28 north of I-94 and surely end the growing season has trended to cover less area compared to previous forecast updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Ongoing storms at 14.00Z TAF issuance staying south of TAF sites, affecting locally smaller airports in Grant County, WI (KPVB, KOVS, KPDC).

Subsequent impacts expected through Wednesday morning with MVFR-IFR ceilings spreading in from the northwest and south. Expect impacts/ceilings to better/lift through the late morning and early afternoon. Winds out of the north-northeast through Wednesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.