textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warm up for the weekend with highs generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

- Increased precip chances (70 to 80%) for Monday into Tuesday. Should remain mostly as rain before potentially transitioning to light snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. Any accumulations will be minimal. - Coldest temperatures of the season possible Thanksgiving and beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today - Sunday: Dry with Warming Temperatures

An overall pleasant weekend looks to be setting up across the region. A shortwave trough ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies and corresponding surface low are expected to stay well south of our area, keeping rain chances at bay. Areas along and south of I-90 will see some residual cloud cover from this system but otherwise quiet conditions are expected today with near normal temperatures in the 40s. For the rest of the weekend, northwest flow aloft is expected to prevail. A shortwave trough will pass through the flow aloft but current indications are that this should stay well to our north and east across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Should this shortwave trek further south than expected there remains a non-zero chance portions of North Central Wisconsin could see some light showers Saturday afternoon but the overall likelihood remains very low. South/southwesterly low level flow returns by Saturday, allowing for above normal temperatures to start working their way into the region with highs this weekend climbing into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Monday - Wednesday: Precip Chances Return and Cooling Off

A cutoff upper low across Southern California and the Baja Peninsula is expected to eject northeast into the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through the day on Monday. At the surface, an occluding low will follow a similar path, pushing a broad area of light precipitation into the region after 12Z Monday. A little later in the day, a secondary shortwave trough is expected to take shape and drop south out of the Canadian Plains. There remain differences in the mid-range global models as to how intense this trough will be with the GFS taking a slower and more aggressive approach and developing it into a full upper low as it moves into the Upper Midwest. There's still plenty of uncertainty as to how this will ultimately play out but in any case, at the surface, a deepening low should trek along the US/Canada border Tuesday into Wednesday. While the surface low to the south will start off the rain chances Monday, this second low to the north will continue rain chances through Tuesday. A much cooler airmass is expected behind the cold front from the Canadian Low so a transition to snow late Tuesday into Wednesday on the backside of the low will certainly be possible.

Overall rain/snow totals with these systems don't look overly impressive. While chances for precipitation look high, peaking around 70-80% areawide Monday night, QPF looks limited as deeper moisture only starts to make its way into the region early Monday and quickly gets scoured out. NBM probabilities of seeing 0.5 inches or more of rain remain less than 50 percent across the region. As the colder airmass allows for rain to transition to snow Tuesday night into Wednesday, there looks to be a 20-50% probability of measurable snow, mainly along and north of I-90. Some residual light snow showers will be possible for some during the pre-Thanksgiving travel day Wednesday but most should see dry conditions and cooling temperatures with highs in the 30s.

Thanksgiving - Next Weekend: Bitter Cold Makes its First Appearance?

As the cold, dry airmass becomes more established across the region Thursday into Friday, our coldest temperatures of the season look to be possible. Continued northwest flow both at the surface and aloft will keep a steady stream of cold, dry Canadian air filtering into the area. Highs both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday currently look to stay at or below freezing for most with overnight lows in the teens to low 20s. Chances for gusty winds also lead to the potential for single digit wind chills during the morning hours. If these come to fruition, these would be the coldest temperatures of the season so far. A strong surface high is expected to build south into the Northern Plains, keeping conditions cold and dry for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Isolated river valley fog at 21.12Z TAF issuance causing LIFR visibilities at KLSE. Terminal webcams exhibit near surface fog bank barely building west from the ASOS to the terminal in 30 minute imagery loops. Ridgetop webcam imagery also suggests an overall limited extent of fog bank, against eastern slope of valley.

VFR expected through much of the 21.12Z TAF period. Fog concerns return overnight into early Saturday morning although strength of off surface winds may provide sufficient mixing to abate airport impacts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.