textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances increase this afternoon from southwest to northeast. Storm chances increase overnight into Sunday morning, Monday, and Tuesday.

- Local strong to severe storm confidence increases Monday with large hail and damaging winds increasing to all hazard types for Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Precipitation Chances Saturday:

Local pattern undergoes changes through Saturday as current anticyclonic influence shifts east over the Great Lakes and return flow invigorates enhanced moisture and warming temperatures through the forecast area. Relatively close proximity to increased moisture, with GOES-Derived 1" PWATs over the Flint Hills in northeast Kansas, fourfold current local 0.25" PWATS, results in quickly increasing precipitation chances across the Upper Midwest and Upper Mississippi River Valley.

Although, exact departure timing of current drier air does lower confidence in initial precipitation onset through the late morning hours in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa as low level jet strengthens well southwest of the local forecast area. As the anomalous moisture spreads across the forecast area through the daytime hours, forcing focuses closer to the forecast area and preciptiation chances increase from southwest to northeast by the early afternoon.

Potential Rounds of Storms Sunday:

Initial storm chances Sunday morning in the southeastern reaches of the local forecast area from the excited low level jet causing quasi-linear albeit mostly congealed storms to advect northeast. Steepening mid level lapse rates will increase instability as off-surface shear values push 30+ kts. While a short window of stronger storms reaching severe criteria cannot be ruled out, high resolution model hodographs remain messy, suggesting a lack of overall organization. A slower realization to synoptic progression and accompanying forcing from the low level jet would increase strong to severe potential as HRRR soundings suggest eradication of low level warm air inversion permitting more clockwise, organized looking hodographs.

While current high resolution guidance doesn't show storms along our western periphery Sunday evening due to diurnal capping of increased instability, additional storm chance potentially along our western periphery could occur in a linear storm mode due a dry line strengthening through the Missouri River Valley into central Minnesota. Similar strong to severe storms would be possible albeit higher confidence remains west of the local forecast area, potentially on a weakening trend as they approach the forecast area should they form.

Widespread Strong-Severe Potential Monday:

A temporary reprieve in storm chances Sunday night through Monday expected as the aforementioned transient dry slot punches east through the forecast area. Monday storm chances increase through the afternoon as cyclogenesis over the Central Plains reinvigorates meridional low level moisture transport through the Upper Mississippi River Valley, spreading 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE across the forecast area by the evening hours. Concurrent mid level lapse rates steepen above 9C/km within the accompanying open warm sector.

Current confidence in extent and exact location limited by forcing mechanism as sky cover may limit diurnal enhancement of low level instability building through the daytime hours. Regardless, a short pulse from a low level jet within broad warm sector in the phasing low level extratropical cyclone could provide sufficient forcing for storm initiation through the forecast area from the afternoon through the evening. Current confidence in large hail and damaging winds where severe storms form as ability to become surface based remains in question, similarly dependent on amount of potentially clearing skies.

Widespread Strong-Severe Potential Tuesday:

Additional storm chances seen Tuesday as GEFS/GEPS solutions suggest similar reinvigoration of low level moisture transport increasing SBCAPE to 1500 J/kg / 3000 J/kg, respectively. This raises concern for all hazard types on Tuesday should as storms potentially become surface based as low level bulk shear magnitudes push 30kts at 0-1km and 0-3km. LREF sounding plumes show mostly unidirectional shear although all do show somewhat of a slight kink, albeit overall limited agreement at lower levels; potentially suggesting initially splitting supercells until congealing upon surface boundary sagging east- southeast should storms initiate within the warm sector.

Additional Storm Chances Wednesday:

While storm chances continue for Wednesday, longer forecast hour and multitude of perturbations disrupting the overall pattern limit any confidence in local impacts. Confidence in storms decreases come Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions currently present across the region with light winds out of the south/southeast. An area of showers and storms is currently moving east through Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa and should begin to impact our local area in the next hour or so. Have added some mention of this to the KRST terminal though given its scattered nature and overall minor impacts thus far, did not opt to go for a TEMPO or prevailing group early on. As rain chances start to become more organized by afternoon, have maintained the prevailing groups from the previous package with minor adjustments in timing based on hi-res guidance. MVFR to IFR CIGs and visibilities will start to move in with the more robust shower/storm activity and should linger through the end of the period. Winds will generally remain out of the south, increasing through the morning with gusts to between 20-30 kts possible at the terminals by the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Potential Record Warmth Monday & Tuesday (Record/Forecast):

April 13th High Temp Warm Low ----------- -------- ------- Rochester, MN 83 (2023) / 76 59 (1941) / 56 La Crosse, WI 85 (2023) / 78 63 (1941) / 59

April 14th ---------- Rochester, MN 87 (2003) / 80 56 (1976) / 59 La Crosse, WI 90 (2003) / 80 60 (1883) / 60

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.