textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain largely comes to an end from northwest to southeast by this afternoon though low potential (10-30%) for additional isolated showers/storms exists across portions of Wisconsin into this evening.

- Drier conditions are expected through this weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

- Shower and storm chances (30-50%) return Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Today and Tonight

A 1003 mb surface low will slowly move southeast across northern Illinois this morning and into west-central Indiana this afternoon. As this occurs, the deformation band of rain will move southeast and out of the area between 01.18z and 01.20z. Additional rainfall in southwest and central Wisconsin will likely range between 0.25 to 1 inch.

Another weak shortwave trough will move through the area this afternoon. With 0-1 km mixed-layer CAPES up to 500 J/kg and some surface convergence, isolated to scattered showers and storms across north-central, west-central, and central Wisconsin. With weak 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear, not anticipating any organized severe weather.

High temperatures will range from the mid-70s to around 80. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday into Monday

An upper level ridge will build across the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Sunday and then remain across the region through Monday. The combination of this ridge and a surface high will keep the area dry through this time period. High temperatures will range from around 80 to the mid-80s. Low temperatures will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Monday Night into Thursday

On Monday night and Tuesday, a shortwave trough will move along the US/Canadian border. This trough will flatten the upper level ridge and this will allow a cold front to move into the region late Monday night and Tuesday morning. With very limited instability (less than 100 J/kg), only expecting some isolated weak showers and storms during this time period.

This front will then meander across the region from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. As several mid-level speed maxes move through the region, the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear may become favorable at times for severe weather to develop.

High temperatures will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s. Low temperatures will range from the mid-50s to mid-60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

West of the Mississippi River, fog has developed generally along I-35, but some visibility restrictions have been reported further east, most notably at KRST. Given that clouds lingered over much of our area overnight, not expecting much more in the way of impacts than what is currently observed.

Showers ongoing mainly south of a line from AUM to DLL continue to shift southeastward and dissipate through the morning hours, leading to dry conditions areawide after 18z. MVFR and localized IFR ceilings trend southeastward with the showers with SCT-BKN cumulus around 5kft taking their place this afternoon. Some scattered showers/storms are possible (10-30%) this afternoon as well, mainly for areas north of I-90 in Wisconsin. Winds remain from the north to northeast, gusting 20-25KT south of I-90 through the morning/early afternoon hours and to around 15KT elsewhere, but should begin to diminish this evening and afternoon. Heading into the overnight hours, expectations are for VFR conditions to persist with SKC-FEW skies though may need to monitor for fog potential tonight where skies clear given the recent rainfall.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.