textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing rain will develop in north central Wisconsin this evening and continue through the overnight. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for Clark and Taylor Counties for this threat.

- More showers and storms for this afternoon and evening with some severe storms possible. The main threat will be large hail.

- Combining the precipitation from Thursday with the rain for today and tonight will lead to more river rises across the forecast area with some rivers potentially getting into the Minor flood stage such as the Black, Turkey, Trempealeau, Yellow, and Kickapoo Rivers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today and Tonight

A surface low will lift northeast out of the Central Plains and into Iowa. As this occurs, warm air and moisture transport will rapidly increase across the area on the nose of a 40 knot 850 mb jet late this morning and afternoon. This will quickly overcome an 850 to 650 mb dry layer that will be moving into the area overnight and showers and elevated storms will develop. With most unstable CAPES climbing up to 500 J/kg north of Interstate 90 and 500 to 750 J/kg south of Interstate 90 and 1-7 km shear in the 30 to 40 knots in the afternoon and early evening, there may be a few strong storms capable of producing hail. This would go along with the marginal risk in the Day 1 Convective Outlook.

As the low pressure moves northeast through Wisconsin tonight, a deformation band of precipitation will develop along and north of Interstate 94. As easterly low level winds under cut warmer air aloft in Clark and Taylor counties, freezing rain will develop around or after midnight tonight. The LREF probabilities range from a 33 to 75 percent for at least a glaze of ice, 20 to 60 percent for at least a tenth of an inch, and a 10 to 40 percent of at least a quarter of an inch. The timing for this freezing rain to occur is overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Current forecasted amounts have between a glaze to 0.1" across northeast Clark and most of Taylor County. Slightly higher totals are expected in eastern Taylor county where up to 0.3" of ice may occur. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for both of these counties.

With precipitable water values ranging from 0.8 to 1 inch north of Interstate 90 and 1 to 1.25 inches across the remainder of the area, there will be likely another round of potentially heavy rain for the area. However, this one looks less than its predecessor, because the LREF probabilities for over 1 inch are only up to 25 percent. If the heavier rain falls on where the heavy rain fell on Thursday, this could potentially result in some river flooding.

Sunday through Monday night

There will be a change in the 500 mb pattern from Sunday into Monday night as the flow aloft come from the northwest. This will bring some much needed dry air into the region. In addition, we will see below normal temperatures. On Sunday, the high temperatures will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. It will be even cooler on Monday with high temperatures from the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Thursday into next Saturday

There will be a return to a wetter pattern as a front stalls across the region. With southwest winds advecting moisture into this boundary, there will be likely several rounds of precipitation. Like much of this week, it will be cooler than normal with high temperatures mainly in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Rain spreading northeast on radar imagery reaching or nearing local TAF sites (KLSE/KRST) at 03.18Z TAF issuance advecting TS and visibility impacts across much of the local area. Have removed TS mention from both TAF sites in the nearest term given observations limiting extent to southern half of local forecast area, from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Eventually expect storm coverage to spread farther north through the forecast area.

IFR-LIFR ceilings in the wake of higher precipitation chances through the overnight primarily affect west of the Mississippi River Valley.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Heavy rainfall accompanying storms spreading northeast through the local forecast area early this afternoon will cover the forecast area by the evening hours. As high resolution guidance envelops the entirety of the forecast, higher QPF values compared to previous forecasts suggest 1.5"+ over flooding susceptible rivers in Wisconsin (e.g., Kickapoo, Black, Yellow) and Iowa (e.g., Turkey). Therefore, collaborated higher QPF forecast with WPC and NCRFC for additional river forecasts at 18Z. Given these rainfall values aligned with 80th+ percentile QPF in previous forecasts, expect additional impacts to action stage or minor flooding at susceptible river sites.

Overall impacts will depend on exact location of band of higher values and subsequent drainage into flooding susceptible rivers. While low probability (<10%), moderate flooding cannot be ruled out should training storms repeat heavy rainfall over the same sites.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ017-029. MN...None. IA...None.