textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain (possibly starting out as freezing rain at onset) will move into the area tonight and linger into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts will mainly range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

- Light snow will then move into the area during the mid- to late afternoon and continue into the evening. Any accumulations will be on the light side.

- West and northwest winds will increase into the 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 30 to 45 mph on Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Tonight through Thursday Morning

The 17.00z models continue to show that a northern stream shortwave trough will continue to dig southward through the Northern and Central Plains as it moves east on Thursday. As the trough gradually becomes negatively tilted, the surface low will gradually deepen as it moves east from North Dakota east into Upper Michigan.

Like the past couple of days, the area will remain in the warm sector through much of Thursday morning. Temperatures will during this evening will range from the mid-20s to mid-30s. Temperatures will then warm and range from the mid-30s to lower 40s overnight tonight and remain that way through mid- to late Thursday morning. Depending on the boundary layer temperatures at the onset of the precipitation, there may be a brief period of freezing rain in central and north-central Wisconsin. Overall, mainly expecting rain for this time period. There is a 60-80 percent chance of at least a tenth of an inch and up to a 10 percent chance for at least a quarter of an inch.

Thursday Afternoon through Thursday Night

The models remain in good agreement that strong cold air advection will develop across the area on Thursday afternoon. As this occurs, temperatures will fall into the teens and 20s by late afternoon, and into the single digits by Friday morning. Wind chills will range from 0 to 20 by late Thursday afternoon and from 5 to 20 below by Friday morning.

As the deformation band moves east from mid-afternoon through evening, light band of snow will move across the area. There are still some questions on how far south this band will get. The Grand Ensemble probabilities for a half-inch or greater of snow is currently 5-30 percent north of Interstate 94 and only up to a 5 percent across the remainder of the area.

As the surface pressure gradient tightens and stronger winds aloft are brought to the surface due to steepening 950-850 mb lapse rates, sustained winds will range from 15 to 30 mph and wind gusts will range from 30 to 45 mph.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Through the afternoon into the early evening, impacts to aviation are not expected as high pressure shifts eastward through the Midwest. South to southwest winds are largely established across the region this morning and will remain in place throughout the next 24 hours.

Overnight, conditions become much busier as a cold front moves towards the region. This front is expected to reach our western reaches around 05z-06z, bringing rain to the majority of the region through around 12z as it shifts west to east, although some snow may be able to mix in for those north of I-94. IFR/Low MVFR ceilings and visibility move through with the rain. The low level wind field also increases ahead of this front allowing for gusts of 25-35kts, with some higher gusts possible west of the Mississippi River. With this increased low level wind field, there is some potential for low level wind shear, primarily within river valleys, but with a mostly unidirectional wind profile, low level turbulence is more likely to be realized than low level wind shear.

A brief lull precipitation is expected during the morning hours before snow shower potential (10-30%) moves through the region towards the end of the TAF period. Visibilities could be rapidly reduced and paved surfaces could quickly become slippery within these potential showers. However, variations in timing leads to uncertainty in when impacts could occur at a given site, so not confident enough to include mentions of snow showers in the TAFs with this issuance.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.