textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday. Highs generally in the low to mid 50s are expected south of I-94, 40s north.

- Precipitation moves into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday (40-90%). Rain will be the predominant precipitation type, but low potential for freezing rain/wintry mix (~10%) exists north of I-94 before a transition to light snow Wednesday night.

- Another system moves through the region Thursday evening through Friday, bringing additional precipitation potential (40-60%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Today

The warmest day of our pseudo-Spring is upon us as ridging builds in over a persistently overperforming airmass behind the quickly moving shortwave shifting eastward this morning. With little airmass change expected, the majority of the area is expected to reach the mid 50s again today, but those south of I-90 over northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin have the potential to reach into the 60s with the 16.01z NBM depicting 30-60% probabilities for 60+ degrees. The primary driver of uncertainty in the temperature forecast this afternoon is cloud cover associated with a slug of moisture over Iowa, which is responsible for some mid to upper level clouds this morning. Dependent on how quickly these clouds are able to clear out, we may end up falling just short of the 60 degree mark. However, there is signal amongst the various ensemble guidance (NBM/HREF/LREF) indicating these clouds should skedaddle late this morning as the ridge builds in. RAP/HRRR soundings also suggest efficient diurnal mixing over our southern counties this afternoon, as deep as 800hPa, which would aid in having temperatures overperform.

The above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday as warm air advection preceding a system mid-week results in 925hPa temperatures remaining around 5-10C. High temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to remain in the low to mid 50s for those south of I-94, 40s north.

Precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday

Heading into Tuesday night an abnormally deep low (near/at the minimum of climatology per the 15.12z NAEFS) shifts eastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture advection ahead of this feature brings PWATs of 0.7-0.8 inches to the region, above the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year. With more than adequate moisture available along with forcing associated with the low itself, confidence is high in precipitation development Tuesday night through Wednesday (40-90%) as the low progresses through.

South of I-94, precipitation type will be all rain given the warm antecedent conditions and being within the warm sector of the frontal system as it shifts through the region. A rumble of thunder remains possible south of I-90 as global deterministic models along with the 16.00z EPS mean suggest 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE will be present. Precipitation type remains slightly trickier for those north of I- 94. There remains the outside potential for a brief period of freezing rain (~10%) at onset Tuesday night for these areas as a warm nose in the 850-750hPa layer is depicted in model soundings atop near freezing surface temperatures before warmer air works its way northward. As this happens, confidence increases in an all liquid p-type. As the low begins to shift eastward on Wednesday, cold air advects into the region, resulting in falling temperatures throughout the column. This will promote a transition to light snow for those north of I-94 Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Given the overall progressive nature of this wave, amounts will fortunately be somewhat tempered. The axis of highest QPF is expected across northern into north-central Wisconsin where the 16.00z LREF mean QPF sits around 0.4-0.5 inches for those north of I-94 with a 20-40% probability to exceed 0.5". Any snowfall will be wet and heavy with snow ratios around 5-8:1.

Apart from the precipitation potential, breezy winds are also expected with this system as the tightened pressure gradient will support enhanced low level flow, upwards of 40-45kts atop the mixed layer, in turn supporting 25-35mph winds at the surface Tuesday afternoon. Cold air advection and more unidirectional winds behind the low as it departs eastward will promote efficient moment transfer of these winds to the surface on Wednesday. As such, the 16.01z NBM continues to depict some low potential for a 45mph gust Wednesday west of the Mississippi River, generally 20-40% but dependent on the depth of mixing realized, 45mph gusts may become more attainable.

Late Week System

Another shortwave and attendant surface frontal system are expected to move through the Midwest Thursday night into Friday. The LREF constituents are in general agreement that this system will shift eastward across Iowa and northern Illinois, putting our area on the northern edge of the low. There remains some variation amongst the various ensembles regarding placement and depth, but the current consensus results in snow being the predominant precipitation type expected. Current probabilities for measurable snow in the 16.00z LREF sit around 50-70%, 40-60% in the 16.01z NBM, but with an expected banded nature, amounts and their location are likely to vary in the coming days.

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will begin to cool back towards climatological normals as cold air advects in on the backside of the two departing systems, resulting highs in the upper 20s to low 30s are currently depicted in the 16.01z NBM mean.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Strong low level winds of 35-40kts continue pivoting eastward through 18z, allowing for a period of 20-25KT gusts. Sites at lower elevations still have a risk of low level wind shear through 15z, after which low level turbulence would be favored owing to diurnal mixing. Winds diminish to around 5-10KT areawide by the afternoon and shift in a clockwise manner throughout the day, becoming easterly after 00z. Outside of the winds, VFR conditions are expected.

CLIMATE

Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Here are some of the record high and warm low temperatures for La Crosse and Rochester for February 16.

Record or near record highs Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 59 (1931) / 54 La Crosse, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 57

Record or near record warm lows Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

Warm Low Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 35 (1931) / 37 La Crosse, WI 40 (1981) / 33

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.