textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing drizzle, drizzle, and light snow expected overnight. Freezing drizzle (30-70%) and drizzle risk focuses on an axis from around the Mississippi River valley east to around I-94 with mainly snow expected north/east of I-94. Exact surface temperatures will determine if freezing drizzle or drizzle occurs.

- Brief cold snap Saturday will give way to quick warm up for early next week with above average highs in the mid to upper 40s expected by Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Freezing drizzle, drizzle, light snow overnight

Tonight, an upper wave currently over Lake Winnipeg dives southeast over NE MN and WI toward Chicago. Ahead of this feature in our region, near surface moisture is in place as reflected by ongoing stratus. While mid-level moisture is tough to come by, GOES WV satellite channels shod a good amount of mid-level moisture with the upper wave to our northwest. As it approaches our CWA overnight, expect some light precip, primarily east of the Mississippi.

Precipitation type remains the primary source of uncertainty with the forecast. Along and north/east of I-94, robust agreement across guidance that 850mb, 925mb, and surface temperatures remain below freezing while a DGZ in the 600-650mb layer remains saturated, so light snow is expected in this area. Farther west, guidance is largely in agreement that the aforementioned DGZ will largely be unsaturated with disagreement focusing on low level and surface temperatures and, consequently, if freezing drizzle or liquid drizzle will be predominant. Interesting contrast between 05.12z GFS/NAM with a cooler column and thus mainly freezing drizzle while several runs of HRRR/RAP kept temperatures just warm enough for droplets to remain liquid on contact with the ground but 05.18z runs of each now have surface temps directly at or just below freezing when the droplets may fall. 05.12z GFS is a slam dunk for FZDZ but it is several degrees colder than ongoing weather so have largely discarded this solution. Have instead leaned the forecast toward FZDZ given the 05.18z HRRR/RAP solutions and 05.12z HREF mean soundings, retaining potential for liquid drizzle along with the dominant FZDZ (30-70%). In any case, duration of FZDZ looks to only be about 2-3 hours once it begins and the overnight timing limits impact due to low road traffic levels. Have therefore elected not to issue a Winter Weather Advisory with this update and will continue to highlight the potential via other avenues.

Friday Night - Wednesday: Warming Up, Precip Returns (?) Mid Week

Starting Friday, we'll enter a fairly benign weather pattern that looks to continue through the weekend and into early next week. At the start of the weekend, we will remain in northwest flow aloft on the back side of a departing trough axis with an upper ridge building across the Rockies. A push of cold air behind a secondary cold front late Friday will move in as a surface high begins to drop out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest. This will lead to much cooler temperatures for Saturday with highs only in the teens to lower 20s. With the surface high quickly moving off to the south and east, this should allow low level winds to become more southerly and begin advecting some warmer air into the region. Highs by Sunday should rebound back into the mid 30s for most (upper 20s for North Central Wisconsin). This warm air advection will lead to steadily rising temperatures through Tuesday with highs by then in the mid to upper 40s, with some locations flirting with the 50 degree mark (especially in the river valleys). Current forecasts of 46 and 43 at La Crosse and Rochester keep us out of record high territory with the records being 51 (2009) and 48 (1977) respectively but if we start to notice an upward trend, this will be something to monitor. Current probabilities of reaching or exceeding 50 degrees sit at ~10 to 30 percent, mainly across Southwest Wisconsin and southern portions of the Wisconsin River Valley. In any case, this should help to melt whatever snow is left over across the region.

The forecast looks to remain dry through mid next week before precip chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday. While the aforementioned upper ridging will move overhead to start the week, this is expected to gradually weaken and lose amplitude. At the same time, a cutoff low across the Baja region is expected to eject north east to rejoin the main upper level flow. Right now there remains a signficiant amount of uncertainty in regards to the evolution of this upper low as it transitions into a shortwave trough and moves east, especially in regards to the timing and amplitude. Ahead of this shortwave trough, gulf moisture is expected to surge northward with the warm air advection but how far north it gets before the surface system cuts it off is to be determined. In any case, with the slight increase in moisture and the presence of some upper level support, an area of rain looks to move in Tuesday night into Wednesday, potentially becoming a rain/snow mix as cold air on the back side of the surface system begins to work its way in. It's still way too early get into the weeds of P-type with this system given the vast uncertainties with it to begin with but we will be keeping an eye on how it evolves over the next few days as this looks to be our next chance for precipitation after tonight.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs are expected throughout much of the overnight as an approaching weather system brings low-level moisture and the potential for freezing drizzle and snow along and east of the Mississippi River. Cigs at KLSE will likely lower to IFR by around 06z with high probabilities (70-90%) in the HREF for cigs under 1kft overnight. This will likely be accompanied by a period of drizzle to freezing drizzle depending on surface temperatures which may bring MVFR to IFR vsby reductions. IFR cigs are generally expected for most locations overnight but will improve to MVFR by daybreak with increasing winds from the north/northwest at 15-20 kts with occasional gusts to 30 kts. Cigs will likely improve to VFR late into the afternoon on Friday as diurnal mixing eventually clears out remaining low-level moisture.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.