textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain above normal through Tuesday before colder air moves in Wednesday into the start of next weekend.

- Looking mainly dry over the next seven days, however, there are low to medium chances (20-35%) for light accumulating precipitation on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Today - Tuesday: Dry and Warm

Benign weather expected the next day and a half as weak upper level ridging builds overhead. At the surface, a weak surface high will drift through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the day tomorrow, keeping conditions dry. Widespread warm air advection is taking place across the region with gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon behind a warm front. This has allowed for temperatures along and south of the I-94 corridor to climb well above average into the low to mid 60s. A weak cold front is not far behind, generally draped across the Twin Cities Metro area this afternoon and will continue to push east through the evening and overnight hours. While this will provide a wind shift, there won't be an initial surge of cold air with this boundary. The cold air is lagging behind and will move in later this week (more on that later). As such, temperatures Tuesday won't take too much of a hit with most locations in the mid to upper 50s. NBM 09.13 probabilities for high temperatures at or above 60 degrees tomorrow are largely confined to Southwest Wisconsin and portions of West Central Wisconsin where probabilities sit in the 50-75% range. An increase in cloud cover from the west will likely prevent areas west of the river from seeing highs above 60 tomorrow afternoon.

Wednesday - Thursday: Light Rain Chances, Cool Down

The pattern gets a little more active heading into midweek as an upper level trough drops out of the Pacific Northwest/Canada into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. With it, it will bring a modestly strong mid-level vort max and a surface low is expected to develop just south of our area across the Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley. With the surface low pressure center passing to our south across Iowa, precipitation is expected to develop on the north side of this low across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. While earlier forecast runs favored a more broad shield of low precipitation chances, recent NBM and LREF runs have favored a more banded scenario early on with a band of 850/700mb frontogenesis across Northern Wisconsin early Wednesday morning. From there, as the vort max starts to interact with increased mid level moisture across the area, scattered light showers may develop across the region. Better chances for rain continue to show up south and east of our area where lift and moisture are better co-located. QPF remains very light with NBM 09.13 probs for 0.10 inches at less than 20 percent for most of the area (apart from Taylor County where frontogenesis showers could lead to increased totals - still low confidence 25-30 percent). Even NBM 90th percentile totals have come down from previous forecasts with 0.10-0.20 inches the new high end range. Rain remains the favored precipitation type as the cold air intrusion looks to lag behind the time that the precipitation is mostly likely to be falling during the day on Wednesday. If the cold air moves in faster or precipitation hangs on for longer into the evening/overnight hours, a few flakes could mix in (this is more probable up in North Central Wisconsin). If any snow does mix in, it is not expected to accumulate.

Temperature wise, the surge of cold air looks to come late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Lows Wednesday night could drop into the mid to upper 20s for West Central Wisconsin with low 30s elsewhere. High temperatures Thursday will be significantly cooler from the start of the week in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Would not be surprised if current forecast temperatures for late week are too high given that forecast 850mb temperatures will be in the -5 to -8 deg C range. It's very possible that due to the recent string of warm weather that a warm bias is being added to these temperatures. Will stick with the blended solution for now but this will be something to monitor over the coming days.

Next Weekend: High Pressure Sets In

A Canadian high pressure is expected to sink south into the Upper Midwest by Friday, dominating much of the weather pattern across the Central CONUS by Saturday. This will keep conditions dry so apart from the light rain chances on Wednesday, a dry forecast is on tap for the area through at least early next week. Temperatures will be at their coolest Thursday into Friday with some recovery expected by Saturday into the upper 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with few to sct high clouds this afternoon before trending clear overnight. Winds will begin the TAF period from the south/southwest at around 10-15 kts but will diminish this evening to around 5 kts and switch to northwesterly.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.