textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered rain & snow showers for this morning.

- Cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs in the 40s gives way to much warmer temperatures by Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Overnight lows on Monday morning will likely be in the 20s areawide.

- Drier conditions expected to start the work week with precipitation potential not returning until Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Sunday - Monday: Snow Showers This Morning, Otherwise Dry and Cool

Northwesterly flow aloft and near the surface will pave the way for a fairly cool Sunday across the area more like mid-march, certainly a change of pace from our conditions over the past week! As we head into our Sunday morning, a quick hitting 500mb shortwave will move through the local area during the morning hours bringing some potential for snow showers to the local area. Overall, the CAMs are somewhat aggressive with this, even suggesting the potential for some minor accumulations. As a result, cannot rule out (10-30% chance in the recent NBM) some very minor accumulations (a couple of tenths) on cooler and elevated surfaces. Otherwise, skies will clear towards afternoon as surface high pressure moves into the area and persist through Monday, keeping us precipitation free. However, with the clear skies and lighter winds overnight, temperatures on Monday morning could tumble into the 20s for much of the area, so may want to protect any plants you may have put outside after this last week of warmer temperatures.

Tuesday - Friday: Warmer, Shower & Storm Chances Return Thursday

By the time Tuesday and Wednesday roll around, surface high pressure pushes eastward and is replaced by a fairly pronounced upper-level ridge. This combined with surface flow turning to southerly on Monday will aid in pushing in much warmer temperatures into the local area for Tuesday with the NBM inter-quartile spread ranging from upper 60s to middle 70s on Tuesday, with some of the higher percentiles of the NBM reaching into the 80s for Wednesday.

However, drier conditions will likely come to an end by Thursday as a more pronounced upper-level shortwave trough will swing through the Northern Plains with a respectable cold front associated with it that pushes through the Upper Midwest. With fairly respectable surface convergence along this front would think that showers and storms would be fairly likely, with the NBM already having high precipitation chances (60-80%) with its passage. However, any severe potential is much less certain as probabilities in the GEFS & GEPS for us to get SBCAPE of over 1000 J/kg are fairly low (10-30%) at this point. Additionally, with the current stronger upper-level jet streak favored over western MN and the Dakotas, would think shear profiles would be less conducive for severe weather over the local area as they would be displaced from the pool of instability. ML and AI severe weather outlooks generally share this sentiment for Thursday as the highest relative probabilities in this regime stay to our west. Certainly still plenty of time for details to shift but would say confidence for any severe potential is low at this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions currently present across the region. An area of snow showers moving southeast through the Dakotas and Western Minnesota will make their way into the Driftless Region early this morning. There may be some transient MVFR CIGs and visibilities with this activity but confidence in impacts are still too low to include a prevailing group. There remains slightly higher confidence that it will impact Southeast Minnesota and Northeast Iowa so have included a PROB30 at the KRST terminal, leaving any mention out of KLSE for now. Otherwise, winds will veer more to the northwest through the morning hours with gusts to 25 kts possible by the early afternoon. Winds will again come down after 00Z.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Flood watches and warnings persist for sites along the Yellow, Wisconsin and at McGregor on the Mississippi River with many of these sites expected to crest over the next couple of days. With only some light snow showers or flurries expected this morning and otherwise dry conditions through mid-week, minimal additional precipitation is expected to enter these basins.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.