textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet forecast through the weekend into early next week with only dry forecast Friday. Strong to severe storm potential increases daily starting on Sunday.

- Record warmth expected Monday & Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Near Seasonable Temperatures Through Saturday:

Anticyclonic flow evident in surface observations over South Dakota shifts over the forecast area through Friday, providing the only dry nighttime forecast through much of the forecast period and near seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the low 30s to upper 20s.

Initial Precipitation Chances Saturday Night:

As the high pressure exits east of the forecast area through Saturday, return flow invigorates through the Central Plains, returning precipitation chances along enhanced low level moisture transport Saturday night. Initial storm chances Saturday night into Sunday will remain elevated in nature given overnight timing while increased instability remains west of the forecast area. The anomalous airmass advects over the forecast area through the start of the week, bringing potentially record warmth Sunday night through Tuesday.

Storm Chances Increase Sunday, Increasing Daily Through Tuesday:

Besides record warmth, the anomalously moist airmass with potentially record PWATs (SPC RAOB climatology) lingering through the start of the week increases local storm chances Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. While collocation with sufficient forcing will be ultimate forecast challenge, strong to severe storms will be possible with LREF sounding plumes suggesting 30+ kts of 0-3 km shear each day. Associated severe probability machine learning models paint severe potential affecting the local forecast area each day.

Initial strong to severe threat Sunday grazes western counties in Minnesota with higher probabilities west and north of the local forecast area. Conditional threat will hinge on amount of clearing given lack of local frontal boundary while low level WAA slightly weakens and EPS soundings advect meager MUCAPE east. While Monday strong to severe threat similarly hinges on clearing potential, steeper mid level lapse rates across the forecast area amplifies local severe threat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Showers have largely come to an end across the region, although can't rule out a sprinkle to light shower here and there through 10z, mainly over northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Outside of the rain, periodic IFR ceilings will continue over the next few hours with several sites across southeast Minnesota reporting cloud heights between 0.5-1kft. Looking upstream towards south- central and western Minnesota reveals far more MVFR present with some holes that have developed in the stratus field, so thinking IFR conditions will be short-lived. However, MVFR ceilings are expected through the morning hours with ceilings in the 1-3kft range, more in line with the observations upstream. Ceilings clear from west to east during the morning hours, shifting fully into eastern Wisconsin by 18z, resulting in clear skies through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be from the northwest today, generally 10KT or less.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Potential Record Warmth Monday & Tuesday (Record/Forecast):

April 13th High Temp Warm Low ----------- -------- ------- Rochester, MN 83 (2023) / 78 59 (1941) / 57 La Crosse, WI 85 (2023) / 78 63 (1941) / 59

April 14th ---------- Rochester, MN 87 (2003) / 75 56 (1976) / 57 La Crosse, WI 90 (2003) / 76 60 (1883) / 59

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.