textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures today and Friday with highs in the upper 60s to 70s. Temperatures warm for the weekend with highs in the lower 80s for much of the area on Saturday.

- Temperatures cool down into next week with highs falling near to slightly below normal by Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase (20-50%) for Monday and Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Today - Sunday: Mostly Dry with Warm Temperatures, Breezy on Saturday

Northwesterly flow will prevail through Friday before flow begins to turn zonal into the weekend as a more pronounced upper-level ridge pushes into the Upper Midwest. Consequently, temperature trends will stay slightly above normal with highs generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s. However, as we head into the daytime hours on Friday, 850mb warm air advection will push through the region, allowing for some precipitation chances south of I-90. This is shown in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) which has modest probabilities (50-80%) for measurable rainfall for areas south of I-90. However, given the ample dry air this warm air advection would be running into and the rapid progressing nature of this forcing, generally expecting any rainfall totals to remain under 0.1".

As we head into the weekend, the aforementioned upper-level ridging begins to move overhead with southerly surface flow resulting from the aforementioned warm air advection. Consequently, expecting temperatures to warm up noticeably into the weekend with the inter- quartile range for highs in the NBM ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s, roughly 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. In addition to the warmer temperatures, both an increasing surface pressure gradient and favorable diurnal mixing into a 35-40 kt low-level jet will enable momentum transfer of stronger wind gusts to the surface on Saturday afternoon. As a result, the NBM has fairly high probabilities (40-70%) for wind gusts over 40 mph, mainly across southeast MN. There is even some potential (10-40%) for wind gusts over 45 mph as shown in the NBM across southeast MN as well. Otherwise, winds generally diminish on Sunday with slightly cooler temperatures as the aforementioned upper-level ridge moves off to the east.

Early Next Week: Cooler with Rain Chances

By the time next work week rolls around, a notable change in conditions occurs as the aforementioned upper-level ridge pulls east and is replaced by an approaching shortwave trough descending into the Upper Midwest from south-central Canada. As this occurs, deterministic guidance generally agrees on pushing a surface low north of the region with an attending surface cold front progressing through the area on Monday. Consequently, expecting some rain chances throughout much of the day on Monday with the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) having decent probabilities (60-80%) for measurable rainfall across the region. They key question that remains though is exactly how amplified the previously stated shortwave will be and the exact timing of its passage. How these trends ultimately pan out will dictate exact location and timing for any precipitation. In any case, temperatures will likely note a substantial cooling trend by Tuesday with the inter-quartile range of the NBM having high temperatures near to slightly below normal and ranging from the lower 50s to middle 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at the terminals with light northwest winds at less than 8 kts prevailing for much of the period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.