textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and cloudier conditions expected through the start of the week as higher precipitation chances shunt slightly west and northwest of the forecast area.

- Limited confidence and agreement on widespread precipitation chances late week into the weekend as LREF members remain split on synoptic setup while NBM PoPs Friday and Friday night (40-60%) increase for Sunday (50-75%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Cooler & Cloudier Start to New Week:

While upper level GOES water vapor imagery loops depict three upper level areas of cyclonic rotation along and west of the Mississippi River Valley, the local forecast area will remain mostly unaffected and dry through the start of the week due to temporary amplification of the residual upper level ridge. The upper level low over southern Canada seen shifting east estranges a surface frontal boundary, currently bifurcating the western half of the forecast area, into a low level stretching axis through Sunday. As a result, an area of low level anticyclonic rotation over southwest Canada temporarily strengthens the synoptic ridging over the forecast area through Sunday, shunting the subsequent upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest farther northwest than previously forecasted Monday night through Tuesday. Resultant precipitation potential (20-40%) grazes locally western counties in southeast Minnesota overnight through Monday night. May not see any measurable precipitation out of this round as synoptic forcing is weakening and ridging affects local forecast area.

A cloudier and cooler forecast than recent days is expected due to the passing synoptic lows and a filament of increased low level moisture over the forecast area.

Low Confidence In Precipitation Through The Week:

Eventually, the upper level low slowly sagging south along the Pacific Northwest on upper level GOES satellite imagery loops grabs the leftovers of the early week upper level low with potentially a more zonal orientation towards the forecast area through the late week. Although, a similar low level anticyclonic setup could abstain the local forecast area from the higher precipitation potential currently suggested by the NBM (40-60%) until next weekend when the GEFS (24.12Z) advects a mid level trough through the central CONUS. Although, the concurrent EPS (24.12Z) suggests mid level ridging with diffluent flow at the time which will affect the widespread 50- 75% PoPs initialized in most recent NBM for Day 7.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A cold front just moved through KRST during the past hour. This front will move through KLSE between 25.08z and 25.09z. In the wake of this front, ceilings will be in the 3-6K range. Winds in the wake of this front will become northerly. Wind speeds will remain less than 10 knots.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.