textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day with above-normal temperatures and then more seasonable temperatures for next week.

- Low chance of rain showers (up to 20%) north of Wisconsin 29 this morning.

- Rain and snow showers possible (30 to 60%) from Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Highest precipitation accumulations will be south of Interstate 94.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today

As a cold front moves southeast into the area this morning, it will produce isolated to scattered showers primarily north of Wisconsin 29. As it continues to move further southeast, it will encounter a progressively drier and drier air mass, so not anticipating any showers across the remainder of the area. High temperatures along and north of Interstate 90 will be in the 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures will range from around 60 to the mid-60s. High temperatures typically range from the lower to mid-40s in mied-November.

Sunday

While afternoon relative humidities will be in the 20s and 30s on Sunday, the northwest winds will be on the light side (less than 10 mph). This will greatly limit any fire weather concerns. High temperatures will be seasonable with high temperatures in the lower and mid-40s.

Monday Afternoon in Tuesday Afternoon

The ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles are fairly similar with their tracks of a low pressure system moving through the region. 86% of the Grand Ensemble has up to a tenth of an inch of precipitation north of Interstate 94 and from a tenth to two tenths of an inch of rain across the remainder area. The remaining 14% of the members have stronger surface low which results in the average of those models being up to a third of an inch south of Interstate 94. Temperatures aloft will be cool enough that there will be the potential for some snow may mix in at times. The Grand Ensemble shows little, if any, snow from this system. A few of the BUFKIT soundings north of Interstate 94 show a loss of ice aloft on Monday night. If this occurred, there would be some light freezing rain. Confidence was far too low to add this to forecast at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

CIGS: BKN high level VFR will clear east this morning leaving SCT/SKC conditions for the afternoon through tonight.

WX/vsby: sfc trough then a cold front sweep across the area this morning. Saturation is very limited, evidenced in RAP/HRRR bufkit soundings and satellite/sfc obs, that pcpn production will be difficult south of I-94. Will keep TAFs dry with next shot for pcpn likely holding off until Mon night.

WINDS: winds will be on the increase by mid to late morning with the passage of the cold front. Mix down in the short term guidance pushes mid/upper 20 kts for gusts. Gust die down with the loss of daytime heating but sustained likely to hover near 10 kts through the night.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.