textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm into the weekend.

- Dry through Saturday and then rain chances return from Saturday night into early next week.

- There remains high forecast uncertainty regarding temperatures and rain chances for mid-week next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Overnight

The combination of light winds, clear skies, and dry dew point has resulted in strong radiative cooling this evening. The current temperatures are already within 5 degrees of the forecast low temperatures. With plenty of night to go, lowered the overnight low temperatures by using the NBM 10th percentile. This lowered the low temperatures by another 5 to 8 degrees. They now range from the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Today through Saturday

An anomalous strong 500 mb ridge will remain in control of the area's weather through Saturday. This high will provide dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures. With the NBM running on the cool side for the past 3 days and much of last week, used the 50 50 blend of the NBM 90th percentile and the NBM to raise the high temperatures by 2 to 5 degrees. This resulted in high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s today. These high temperatures will gradually warm through the remainder of the week. On Saturday, high temperatures will be in the lower and mid-70s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s tonight. The low temperatures will gradually warm through the remainder of the week. On Friday night, low temperatures will be in the lower and mid-50s.

Sunday into Monday Night

A trough of low pressure will move across Manitoba and Ontario. This will drag a cold front slowly southeast across the area. Moisture will pool along this front. This will result in rain across much of the area. Rain totals will be up to a half-inch. There is up to a 20 percent chance that rain totals will greater than that.

High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s on Sunday and in the 50s on Monday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s on Sunday night and range from the mid-30s to mid-40s on Monday night.

Tuesday into Wednesday

There is plenty of spread in the models from Tuesday into Wednesday. Due to this, there is much uncertainty on temperatures and rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 18 hours. Indications are starting to point toward at least valley fog after 06z Thursday until around 15z. Since a PROB30 cannot be used for fog alone have instead elected to begin highlighting this potential with a BCFG mention at LSE with a LIFR height SCT deck. Additional refinements and more definite mentions will be used over the next 3 cycles as the situation becomes clearer.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.