textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warmth through the middle of next week. Record warm lows will be possible from Monday through Wednesday. Many of these existing records occurred in 1981.

- The next chance of precipitation will be on Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Based on how high temperatures trended today in southern MN compared to the NBM, have increased high temperatures for Friday by 2-4 degrees along and south of the I-94 corridor where 900-850-mb temperatures are progged to increase 2-4 C compared to today and there is little in the way of a snowpack to modulate this airmass. This raises high temperatures to at or slightly above 50 degrees for areas south of I-94 and the mid-50s towards central Iowa. The latest RAP/HRRR runs are in good agreement with this adjustment and in some cases are showing even warmer temperatures. These adjustments put us at or above daily record high temperatures at several locations like Rochester and very close to La Crosse.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Friday through Sunday

The northern stream western 500 mb ridge will gradually build east through the weekend. Meanwhile, a trough in the southern stream will transverse the southern US. This system will be too far south to bring any precipitation to the region. High temperatures will be in the mid- and upper 30s north of Interstate 94 and in the 40s elsewhere. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 20s.

Monday through Wednesday

The 500 mb ridge will move east early next week, and then gradually flatten by mid-week. Like the past couple of days, anomalous warmth looks likely. The 850 mb temperature anomalies in the NAEFS range from 1 to 2 standard deviations and the GEFS ranges from 2 to 3 standard deviations. This will result in the potential for near to record warmth. With clouds and precipitation in the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, warm lows have a higher probability of occurring than record high temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 40s north of Interstate 94 and in the lower and mid-50s elsewhere. Low temperatures will be in the 30s north of Interstate 94 and around 40 elsewhere.

At this time, it looks like a majority of the precipitation will found mainly along and north of Interstate 94.The probability of a tenth of an inch is up to 15 percent north of Interstate 94 and less than 5 percent elsewhere.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for most locations through the TAF period outside of a 30-50 percent chance of a few hour window of IFR/LIFR fog in northeast Iowa towards sunrise. Winds will be light around or less than 5 kts tonight, veering to the west at similar speeds for Friday.

There is an increasing risk (30-40%) of IFR/LIFR fog developing after midnight on Friday, mainly northeast of a RGK to DLL line, but confidence in the exact coverage and thickness of the fog is low at this time.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.