textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm into Saturday with daytime highs in the 60s to upper 70s for some on Saturday. See Climate section below for local climate sites records and current forecast.

- Light precipitation chances (10-20%) Saturday night through Sunday.

- More seasonable temperatures through next week with low confidence (less than 30%) in precipitation potential middle and late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Record Warmth Likely Saturday

Temperatures these past two days have far exceeded hi-resolution guidance, thanks in part to the large degree of snow melt across the region. With bias correction likely not picking this up in the raw guidance, forecast temperatures have been much too low region-wide. Global ensembles seem to have a better capture of the expected warmth with most, if not all members, of both the EC-ENS and GEFS showing high temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80 for most of the area tomorrow afternoon. With a strong ridge across the western CONUS, anomalously warm temperatures aloft have been able to gradually sneak northeast. As surface winds become southwesterly and start to pick up by tomorrow morning, this will allow for ample boundary layer mixing. And when combined with mostly clear skies, temperatures should climb well above seasonal normals for early spring into the mid 60s to upper 70s. NBM 20.13Z probabilities show a 20-30% chance of temperatures at or above 80 degrees tomorrow afternoon for locations in Northeast Iowa and the Mississippi/Wisconsin River Valleys. In collaboration with surrounding offices, have significantly increased temperatures from the standard blend as confidence remains high that these warm temperatures will come to fruition.

Low Precipitation Chances Sunday

The strong ridge out west begins to weaken through the weekend, allowing for zonal to weakly northwest flow aloft to prevail. A weak perturbation aloft will ripple across the region, followed by a quick cold front. As moisture pools along and ahead of the boundary, some light showers will be possible east of the Mississippi River early Sunday morning. For most places, this will likely leave no more than a trace of precipitation. Precipitation should stay in the form of rain as the colder air that could cause more of a mix currently looks to lag behind.

Seasonable Temperatures to Follow, Precip by Mid-Week

Behind the cold front that moves through the area early Sunday, temperatures will be much more seasonal through the week in the 40s to mid 50s. A surface high will build in on the backside of the front, keeping conditions dry through Tuesday. Any potential for precipitation mid-next week and beyond will largely depend on how the upper level flow evolves. Current indications are that the upper ridge out west would re-strengthen, putting the Upper Midwest in more solid northwest flow aloft on its periphery. At the surface, a low pressure system should track just north of the US/Canada border with a frontal boundary extending to the south and west. This could create chances for precipitation later in the week with some low PoPs already showing up in NBM guidance for Wednesday and Thursday. Current indications are that this system would not be of significant impact to the region with conditions drying out again by next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue at the terminals for the next 24 hours. Northwesterly winds will decrease into the evening, becoming light and variable. Through the overnight hours, winds will gradually veer to the south/southwest, increasing through the morning hours tomorrow.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Potential Record Warmth on Saturday, March 21st, 2026:

Forecast / Record High

Rochester, MN: 76 / 70 (1918) La Crosse, WI: 77 / 75 (2022)

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.