textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will gradually warm through Tuesday and then cool closer to normal or below-normal from Wednesday into Friday of next week.

- Looking mainly dry over the next seven days, however, there are low chances (20-35%) for accumulating precipitation on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Today - Tuesday: Dry and Well Above Normal Temperatures

Generally benign conditions expected for the start of the work week as weak ridging aloft moves overhead. This, combined with weak surface high pressure moving into the Central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley, should keep conditions dry through Tuesday. Despite the passage of this mornings "cold" front, continued northwest flow, and low sun angle, clear skies and steady diurnal radiation have allowed for temperatures to climb into the mid 50s to low 60s. A warm air advection regime will set up tomorrow as winds back to the southwest ahead of yet another dry frontal boundary Monday night into Tuesday. 08.13 NBM probabilities for high temperatures at or above 60 degrees on Monday are in the 50-80% range for most locations south of the Chimney - the highest probabilities across NE Iowa and in the river valleys of Wisconsin. This WAA continues to a lesser degree into Tuesday with highs still in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. The low 60s will likely be limited to Southwest Wisconsin as cloud cover starts to move in from the west during the afternoon hours, limiting peak heating.

Wednesday - Thursday: Rain Chances Return, Significant Cool Down

The weak ridging from before breaks down as an upper wave moves south and east through the upper level troughing regime over the Northeastern CONUS by mid week. As this wave and its corresponding mid-level vorticity lobe interact with increasing mid-level moisture across the Upper Midwest, this should be enough to create some light precipitation chances across the area during the day on Wednesday. LREF 08.00 and NBM 08.13 guidance has come into better consensus, allowing for an increase in PoPs from earlier forecasts. The best overlap of lift and moisture remains south and east of our area where rain chances and QPF are higher. LREF 08.00 grand ensemble (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) probabilities for 0.10 inches of precipitation or more remain very low (less than 20%) across the Driftless Region through 00Z Thursday. NBM 75th percentile rainfall values barely eclipse 0.05 inches across the area so it is highly likely that precipitation across the area will be very light - owing in part to a noticeable layer of low level dry air in forecast soundings. Precipitation is expected to stay in the form of rain with a very, very low chance of some snow mixing in if enough cold air can push south on the backside of the system while precipitation is falling. This cooler air will eventually work its way into the area, dropping temperatures quite a bit for the back half of the work week with highs Thursday into Friday struggling to climb into the low 40s.

Next Weekend: High Pressure Sets In

A Canadian high pressure is expected to sink south into the Upper Midwest by Friday, dominating much of the weather pattern across the Central CONUS by Saturday. This will keep conditions dry so apart from the light rain chances on Wednesday, a dry forecast is on tap for the area through at least next Monday. Temperatures will be at their coolest Thursday into Friday with some recovery expected by Saturday into the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions are likely (80%) over the next 24 hours as winds, initially out of the northwest this afternoon and evening, become out of the southwest for Monday. Potential (20%) exception is fog between 06z and 15z Monday which some raw guidance is pointing towards. However, dry antecedent conditions via the northwesterly winds this afternoon and lack of support in statistical guidance keeps confidence low at this time.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.