textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet forecast through the weekend into early next week with only dry forecast Friday. Strong to severe storm potential increases daily starting on Sunday.

- Record warmth expected Monday & Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Near Seasonable Temperatures Through Saturday:

Anticyclonic flow evident in surface observations over South Dakota shifts over the forecast area through Friday, providing the only dry nighttime forecast through much of the forecast period and near seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the low 30s to upper 20s.

Initial Precipitation Chances Saturday Night:

As the high pressure exits east of the forecast area through Saturday, return flow invigorates through the Central Plains, returning precipitation chances along enhanced low level moisture transport Saturday night. Initial storm chances Saturday night into Sunday will remain elevated in nature given overnight timing while increased instability remains west of the forecast area. The anomalous airmass advects over the forecast area through the start of the week, bringing potentially record warmth Sunday night through Tuesday.

Storm Chances Increase Sunday, Increasing Daily Through Tuesday:

Besides record warmth, the anomalously moist airmass with potentially record PWATs (SPC RAOB climatology) lingering through the start of the week increases local storm chances Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. While collocation with sufficient forcing will be ultimate forecast challenge, strong to severe storms will be possible with LREF sounding plumes suggesting 30+ kts of 0-3 km shear each day. Associated severe probability machine learning models paint severe potential affecting the local forecast area each day.

Initial strong to severe threat Sunday grazes western counties in Minnesota with higher probabilities west and north of the local forecast area. Conditional threat will hinge on amount of clearing given lack of local frontal boundary while low level WAA slightly weakens and EPS soundings advect meager MUCAPE east. While Monday strong to severe threat similarly hinges on clearing potential, steeper mid level lapse rates across the forecast area amplifies local severe threat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Ongoing MVFR/IFR ceilings continue to shift eastward throughout the morning hours, leading to clear to mostly clear skies by this afternoon. Winds will be from the northwest through the day, generally 5-10KT although a few stronger winds of 10-15KT are possible through 19z. Winds begin to diminish into the evening as high pressure moves through the region, becoming variable for a period after before turning predominantely southerly towards the end of the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Potential Record Warmth Monday & Tuesday (Record/Forecast):

April 13th High Temp Warm Low ----------- -------- ------- Rochester, MN 83 (2023) / 78 59 (1941) / 57 La Crosse, WI 85 (2023) / 78 63 (1941) / 59

April 14th ---------- Rochester, MN 87 (2003) / 75 56 (1976) / 57 La Crosse, WI 90 (2003) / 76 60 (1883) / 59

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.