textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain continues the entire area for much of the today with rainfall totals of around 0.5 to 1.5". No impacts are expected from this rainfall.

- Breezy northwest winds with a good (40-70%) chance for spotty showers on Friday morning and afternoon. There is potential (40-60%) for gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily west of the Mississippi River. - Temperatures become much colder Friday night and Saturday morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. A freeze is very likely (70- 100%), particularly north of Interstate 94, where values may dip below 28. A Freeze Watch is now in effect across the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain continues into this evening

As expected, rain is ongoing across the region early this afternoon ahead of a southern stream wave currently moving over NE/KS. Rain amounts have been light, generally around less than 0.5" over the past 6 hours. Expect these rain rates to continue through the evening so some spots could get up to 1.5", including morning rain, but most will end up with 0.5-1" as their final totals.

Breezy with spotty showers for Friday

Friday, after the southern stream wave phases with the northern stream trough currently over Lake Winnipeg, surface low to our east will deepen considerably and temperatures aloft in our area cool rapidly. A strong surface gradient will be present with pressure rises near 2 mb/hr and a northerly 30-40 knot 850mb jet will move over the area. The end result will be breezy conditions with potential (40-60% per 15.13z NBM) for a 45 mph gust, particularly west of the Mississippi valley, just a bit too low of confidence for issuance of a Wind Advisory this afternoon.

As for rain, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft will lead to steep low level lapse rates with moist conditions within much of the boundary layer. This should result in spotty open cellular convection across the forecast area but, with shallow updrafts ending below the -10C level, am not expecting thunder. Downdrafts look to augment the risk for gusts at the surface due to the aforementioned 35-40 knot winds present at 850mb.

Freeze very likely Friday night into Saturday morning

Post frontal surface high builds into KS Friday night with this surface ridge extending northeast into WI. Clear skies and light winds should lead to temperatures tumbling rapidly after sunset. Guidance probabilities point strongly to an areawide freeze (at least 40/70/70% percent in 15.12z REFS/LREF/NBM). Since the locally defined growing season is nearly over but still ongoing, the event is within 48 hours, and confidence is at least 50%, the criteria for a Freeze Watch has clearly been reached so have issued one for the entire CWA. For areas north of I-94, a killing freeze with temps below 28 may (30-70%, highest in Taylor County) occur as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

MVFR cigs will continue to overspread the region overnight as post- frontal low-level stratus overspreads the region. As this occurs, embedded showers with some weak instability will occasionally reduce visibilities to MVFR at times this morning. Some IFR cigs cannot be ruled out during this period, however probabilities guidance in the HREF and NBH are not overly confident west of the Mississippi River (30-50% chance). MVFR cigs persist through early afternoon, until guidance generally agrees on quickly clearing out cigs towards evening. Otherwise, winds will remain strong from the north-northwest throughout much of the daytime hours with sustained winds of 15-25 kts with gusts as high as around 35 kts, primarily during the mid-morning through early afternoon. Winds will quickly decrease after sunset with clearing skies by 06z Saturday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.