textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue for today and Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

- Widespread shower and storm chances return Thursday and continue into early next week.

- Temperatures warm up into the mid to upper 80s for end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today-Wednesday: Dry and Trending Warmer

Shortwave ridging remains over the region through Wednesday keeping the area dry and warm. Temperatures stay mild for today and Wednesday as a surface high continues to influence the Upper Midwest. Southwest flow in the mid levels returns for Wednesday which helps to warm temperatures up into the low to mid 80s.

Thursday-Early Next Week: Shower and Storm Chances Return, Temperatures Continue to Warm

The upper level pattern breaks down on Thursday and shifts to a zonal to southwest flow through Saturday. As the flow pattern returns, PWATs go on the rise. With it being June PWATs generally increase but for the end of the week, according to the most recent NAEFS run, they will be around 90% of climatological normal as PWATs generally are expected to be in the 1.25 to 1.7" range. As the moisture increases across the region, a few shortwaves move through during this timeframe with the first arriving on Thursday. This first wave is a weak cold front associated with a 700mb wave. A low level jet also begins to increase Thursday afternoon, but especially Thursday evening through Friday. While instability will still be building in, the shear is relatively weak. The best shear available would be if storms could attach themselves on this weak boundary. With low amounts of shear and instability, it looks like the most likely hazard of any strong to severe storm would be strong winds as DCAPE values are in the 8000 to 1100 J/kg range in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. SPC has gone ahead and issued a Marginal risk for these locations due to these parameters.

Friday also has some potential for strong to severe storms as the main shortwave moves through the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest by the later evening hours. Shear increases, mainly in the low levels (15 to 25 kts of 0-3km shear) as the 0-6km shear is minimal. There will also be more instability (around 1750 to 2250 J/kg of SBCAPE) available for storms to tap into. The main uncertainties for Friday are what effect the morning convection will have the afternoon and evening convection chances. With the low level jet increasing to 30 to 40 kts for Thursday night into Friday morning, overnight convection could continue well into the later morning hours. Despite this, models continue to show convection popping up in the afternoon and evening hours. With a little more shear and instability to work with, both wind and hail hazards would be possible. Not only is there a strong to severe storm threat, heavy rainfall will also be possible. With the heavy rain potential from Thursday through Friday night, WPC has issued a marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall for both days.

There may be some leftover showers and storms possible for Saturday as this will be dependent on when the cold front passes through. Some ensemble members do not bring the cold front through until Saturday afternoon. Heading into early next week there is some disagreements on the position of the surface high. The GFS has it pushing into our area which would keep us on the drier side, whereas the ECMWF has it further east which would allow for more shower and storm chances. Regardless of the surface high position, with southwest flow continuing, temperatures are expected to stay in the mid 80s to even the low 90s for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Light winds, generally out of the east, will prevail through the overnight hours before increasing out of the south by mid tomorrow morning. Some gusts to between 20-25 kts will be possible at the RST terminal by late tomorrow morning and continue through the afternoon.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.