textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures from the upper 40s to low 50s expected for Friday.

- Narrow band of heavy snow possible on Saturday. Longer forecast hour and limited coverage of heavier snow keep overall confidence low (<30%) as shifting in storm track and location is expected.

- Warmer temperatures return through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Near Seasonable Temperatures Today:

A deepening upper level cyclone over the Canadian Rockies causing cyclogenesis over the next 48 hours will dictate the local weather pattern through Saturday. A quasi diffluent pattern today keeps temperatures near seasonable, influenced heavily by early morning stratus and fog potential, perhaps warranting an AFD update later this morning, as well as preexisting snowpack affecting albedo and budget of incoming solar radiation should sky cover cease through the afternoon/evening.

Above Normal Temperatures Friday:

As the extratropical cyclone sags east-southeast whilst phasing through Manitoba Canada on Friday, the accompanying tightening warm sector ushers in warmer air through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Resultant high (50%-70%) confidence for daytime highs peaking from the upper 40s to lower 50s for Friday. Confidence in warmer temperatures into the upper 50s wanes due to collocation of the preexisting snowpack in local climatologically warmer spots from northeast Iowa into western and southwest Wisconsin on Wednesday's satellite imagery. Resulting increased albedo decreases solar insolation and diurnal influx budget. Therefore, similar to previous forecasts, have decreased daytime highs slightly on Friday in these areas using ensemble NBM 50th percentile.

Strong Winds Friday:

While the surface low center will be situated well to the north over southern Canada, the tightening low level isoheight gradient will increase winds locally. Exact low track will determine extent and magnitude of strongest winds as current forecast soundings suggest inhibited off-surface mixing for the southern half of the forecast area within the low level WAA regime. Therefore, climatologically windier locations west of the Mississippi River Valley may be throttled slightly compared to Wisconsin based on this track. As the low traverses central Ontario through Friday evening, it's subsequent cold sector advects southeast, grazing the Upper Mississippi River Valley, increasing strong wind threat locally overnight into Saturday morning. Current confidence keeps strongest low level CAA just north of the forecast area, abating strongest winds at the current forecast hour. Current confidence for 25 to 35 mph gusts.

Narrow Band of Heavy Snowfall Possible Saturday:

While the current track also shunts the plume of highest moisture well to the south, lingering low to mid level moisture, aided by a subsequent axis of dilatation, and enhanced by a low to mid level frontogenesis band supports a narrow band of potentially higher snowfall locally through Saturday. Similar to most recent snowfall a week ago, stronger forcing will likely usher in very narrow band of higher snowfall rates which /will/ shift north-south in coming forecasts. While ensemble (25.12Z) sounding plumes show a large spread in solutions, an isothermally resemblant picture within the DGZ compounds heavy snow concerns. While high resolution model analysis remains limited at the current forecast hour (48), all show a narrow band of 2500m DGZ thickness just north of the forecast area at 28.06Z, before snowfall probabilities increase locally. Ultimately, collocation with enhanced frontogenesis will be the main forecast detail to remain cognizant of regardless of location of this very thick DGZ filament.

Warming Through Next Week:

While current forecast confidence calls for more seasonable temperatures through the start of the new week gradually warming due to strengthening of southeastern US anticyclonic flow, a plume of colder temperatures estranged from the early weekend trough in the EPS lingers potentially cooler temperatures through early next week. Eventually, do expect warmer than normal temperatures later in the forecast period into mid next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly clear skies outside of few to sct high clouds. Changing wind direction and speed is the primary driver of the TAFs for the next 24 hours as winds will decrease slightly tonight, but will then increase towards 18z on Friday as diurnal mixing will allow for some stronger gusts to get to the surface during the afternoon, primarily west of the Mississippi River. With a strengthen low-level jet atop the nocturnal inversion to 45 kts or so in the RAP/HRRR, may see some LLWS during the morning hours across the region, particularly in more sheltered areas such as KLSE.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.