textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry afternoon relative humidities (around 30 to the mid-30s) this afternoon. Fortunately, the northwest winds will be on the light side (5-15 mph with a few gusts up to 20 mph).

- Rain and snow will be possible (30 to 80%) from Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Highest precipitation accumulations will be south of Interstate 94.

- Another rain system will impact the area from Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today

Afternoon relative humidities will range from around 30 to the mid-30s afternoon. Fortunately, the northwest are on the light side ranging from 5 to 15 mph. There may be even a few gusts up to 20 mph in north-central and central Wisconsin. This will greatly limit any fire weather concerns. High temperatures will be much more seasonable with high temperatures in the lower and mid-40s north of Interstate 90, and in the mid- to upper 40s.

Monday Afternoon into Tuesday Afternoon

A trough will out of the Central Plains on Monday afternoon and Tuesday evening, and then move through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley overnight on Monday night and Tuesday. The ensembles show much better agreement on the track of the surface low as it tracks southeast out of Nebraska, western Iowa, and into northwest Missouri and then tracks east through central Illinois. The models are showing more and 800-600 mb frontogenesis. This banding has resulted in an increase of QPF in the ensembles along and south of Interstate 94. They are now ranging from a 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Soundings are indicating a isothermal temperatures in this layer near 0C. As the forcing increases, this layer could cool sufficiently that the precipitation could transition to a mix of rain and snow or all snow on Monday night. The Grand Ensemble is not showing much snow accumulations (maybe up to a half inch) along and north of Interstate 94. However, there are few ensemble members up to 5 inches of snow.

Thursday Night into Friday

Another low pressure system will northeast through the Mississippi River Valley and southern Great Lakes. Still plenty of uncertainty on how much moisture will make it northward into the area. The weaker shortwave (43% of the Grand Ensemble) has precipitable water values ranging from a half to three-quarters of an inch. While the remainder members with a much stronger shortwave trough have precipitable water values climbing over an inch across southwest Wisconsin and parts of northeast Iowa. Soundings suggest that any precipitation which falls will be in the form of rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 500 AM PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

CIGS: SKC with a few high clouds filtering in from the west overnight. Cigs move in as the day progresses on Monday, dropping to MVFR/IFR Monday night as a shortwave trough brings ra/sn.

WX/vsby: no impacts expected through Mon morning. Rain and/or snow then expected Mon night into Tue as a shortwave trough spins across the region. Uncertainties in the thermal profile in the vertical, impacting confidence on whether rain, snow or a mix will be realized. Greater impacts to vsby if snow is predominant.

WINDS: northwest to west through the period, becoming light tonight. Winds will swing to the east on Monday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.