textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue for today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures warm up into the mid 80s to low 90s into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Today: Dry and Slightly Warmer

The surface high that was situated over the western Great Lakes continues to move off to the east. This will influence our area one last day giving us warm and dry conditions. Highs for today stay in the low to mid 80s. This ridging that was overhead for the last few days will shift to the east and a trough will move over the region.

Thursday - Early Next Week: Shower and Storm Chances Return with Warmer Temperatures

Heading into the overnight period tonight and into Thursday morning, moisture advection into the region increases as southwest flow returns to the region which corresponds to increases in dewpoints and PWATs. The PWATs, according to the NAEFS, are in the 90th percentile for this time of year with values staying between 1.2 and 1.7". Currently there is a wave over the northern Plains that will shift east into the Upper Midwest tonight. The better lift and shear will stay west of the local area, however a band of showers and some storms will move into the forecast area around 12Z Thursday. Since the moisture advection will have to overcome quite a bit of drier air and that there will be little instability to work with, these showers and storms will gradually dissipate as they approach the Mississippi River. A weak cold front moves into the forecast area on Thursday afternoon that could produce some isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly east of the Mississippi River.

Similar to tonight, another MCS moves through western Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin for Thursday night. There is uncertainty on how far east this MCS gets and how maintained it will be. This could dissipate just like tonight's MCS or it could stay together long enough to linger through Friday morning. At the same time this occurs, the low level jet increases Thursday night with 850mb winds of 30 to 40 kts and another band (stronger than tonights band) of moisture advection moves into the Upper Midwest. This will kick off showers and storms for much of Thursday night and potentially most of Friday morning. There is some potential for heavy rain with that low level jet in place, continually feeding moisture into our area. While the 00Z LREF has a 50 to 70% chance of at least 0.5" through Friday morning, the most recent NBM 90th percentile for QPF has 1.5 to 2.5" for areas south of I-90.

Turning the attention to Friday afternoon and evening, SPC has gone ahead and issued a Slight risk for severe weather across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and portions of western Wisconsin. The ML guidance and AI guidance also favors the chance for severe weather and has even shifted the severe weather threat slightly more northeast to include much of our CWA. The basis for this severe weather potential is due to a shortwave trough that moves through the northern Plains on Friday morning and into our area by Friday evening. There is one outlier solution which is the 15Z RAP which shows this wave already through our area much quicker and by the afternoon, there is no severe weather threat. For the other guidance out there that supports a slower moving wave, the morning convection moves off by the early afternoon and the atmosphere has enough time to recover with the southwest flow in place to destabilize. A surface low forms over southwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening with a cold front over western Iowa and a warm front over northern Wisconsin. By the afternoon, the low level jet recharges with 30 to 45 kts at 850mb helping to kick off showers and storms. Depending on how much we can recover will determine the severity of storms for Friday evening and night. There is not a whole lot of shear associated with this wave, however 12Z runs of the GFS and NAM did increase the low level shear to around 20 to 35 kts and with 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, there is support for strong to severe storms to form. Similar to Thursday night, there is heavy rain potential for Friday night as WPC does have a marginal risk for heavy rain. We have been quite dry for the past month so it would take quite a bit of rain for widespread flooding to occur, however if multiple storms go over the same area over a short period of time, this would increase the flooding potential. Stay tuned for further updates on the severe weather potential for Friday as there remains a few unknowns.

After a quiet Saturday and Sunday with a ridge over head, an active pattern may be in store for next week. Both deterministic models of the GFS and ECMWF show a ridge off to our east with a trough off to our west. With our forecast area being in between the two, southerly flow continues which provides a constant influx of moisture into the region. Now the majority of EPS supports this solution but the GEFS solutions stay more dry compared to the EPS. Something to keep in mind is that within the last day the GFS came more into line with the ECMWF showing a potentially active pattern next week. Regardless of the precipitation potential for next week, with our forecast area under the southerly flow, warmer temperatures continue with highs staying in the mid 80s to low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions currently present across the region with decreasing southerly winds. A band of showers and lower stratus will move into the region late overnight into tomorrow morning but shouldn't bring much in the way of impacts. Most models don't have the precipitation holding together by the time it gets to the RST terminal tomorrow morning but do not have quite enough confidence to fully take PoPs out of the package just yet. However, if the trend continues, they might need to be removed in future updates. Further shower and storm development is expected tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front but activity will be scattered in nature so have added PROB30s for the terminals - though activity looks to be more probable at the LSE terminal by the afternoon. Winds will generally stay out of a southerly direction between 5 to 15 kts through the period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.