textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system will bring light snow on Tuesday. Areas north of I-94 could see snow amounts of 1-2 inches.

- The Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning system continues to track further and further southwest. This is resulting in less of the area being impacted by snow.

- Still plenty of uncertainty on how cold we might get this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Tuesday

The models continue to show that a shortwave trough will move east across Minnesota from tonight into Tuesday morning and across Wisconsin on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Like the past couple of days, there continues to be uncertainty on how far south the measurable precipitation will extend. There is a 60 to 100 percent chance of measurable snow north of Interstate 94 and between a 30 to 60 percent chance as far south as Interstate 90. There is up to a 25 percent chance of at least 2 inches north of Wisconsin 29. There might be even a mix of rain and snow south of Interstate 90. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s and upper 30s.

Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning

A shortwave trough will move southeast through the Central Plains on Wednesday and through the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday night and Ohio/Tennessee Valley on Thursday. The models have been trending further and further southwest with this system. This shift is primarily due to this wave being resolved further south off of the Pacific Northwest coast and the amplitude of the Great Lakes trough. The probabilities of 1 inch or greater has been reduced to 10 to 25 percent in west- central and southwest Wisconsin, and from 25 to 40 percent in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. The probabilities for 2 inches or greater has been reduced from from 15 to 33 percent in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

High temperatures will range from the teens to mid-20s on Wednesday, and in the 30s on Thursday.

Weekend

There continues to be much uncertainty on how deep the 500 mb trough will extend across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This impacts temperatures for this time period. This has resulted in large differences between the 10th and 90th percentiles 2 meter temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees. In addition, there is uncertainty on where the precipitation will be located along the arctic front.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A fast moving band of snow will bring MVFR to IFR conditions this morning and early afternoon along and north of an EAU to ISW line. MVFR stratus looks to linger north of this line after the snow ends and into the night, with the probabilities for VFR conditions much higher south of this line (only a 10-20% chance that MVFR stratus makes it down to LSE/RST).

Winds increase out of the south overnight, reaching speeds of 10-20G20-30kts by mid-morning, with low-lying locales seeing the risk for LLWS early this morning before these winds mix to the surface. The winds back to the northwest in the afternoon/evening and remain at 10-15G15-20kts into the evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.