textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of showers gradually decays before sunrise. Can't fully rule out a stray shower developing later today, but odds are much higher that we will stay dry.

- After a dry midweek, increasing shower and storm chances arrive for the latter half of the week and into early next week.

- Highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s for Monday with warmer temperatures on the way for rest of the forecast period as highs get into the mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Today: Early Morning Showers Decaying

A line of showers along a theta-e gradient gradually weaken along and east of the Mississippi River as drier air cuts them off from the southwest. There are some hints in the latest HRRR runs that ongoing convection over the Siouxland region could reach areas along and east of I-35 around sunrise, but given the less than favorable environment characterized by drying and subsidence, have kept the forecast dry for now. With rising heights and an influx of drier air from the northeast, trends are favoring dry conditions for the daytime hours. Cannot rule out a stray shower if the early morning convection happens to lay out an outflow boundary or perturbation, but trends in the CAMs are definitely favoring a dry forecast.

Clouds linger for some locales today, which makes for a more challenging high temperatures forecast as we saw yesterday west of the Mississippi River. While the impacts to temperatures won't be nearly as acute as seen yesterday, did nudge highs down a few degrees where clouds are forecast to linger the longest.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Dry

Shortwave ridging builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface high moves over the Upper Midwest resulting in both days being dry. With southwest flow in the mid levels returning, temperatures begin to climb in to the mid 80s for both days.

Latter Half of the Week: Shower and Storm Chances Return

By Thursday, a trough traverses the northern CONUS kicking the ridge out of the Upper Midwest and bringing an increased chance for showers and storms. The latest LREF already has a 30 to 55% chance for at least 0.25" to fall along and west of the Mississippi River through Friday morning. After this trough moves through on Friday, ensemble cluster guidance favors a longwave trough sitting over the western CONUS starting on Friday and continuing into early next week which results in the Upper Midwest being situated under southwest flow aloft. While this flow pattern will help to bring warmer temperatures, highs will get into the mid to upper 80s, it could also a transition to a more active period, or at least a short period of active weather into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A NW-to-SE oriented band of mainly VFR showers gradually decays overnight along and northeast of a KMSP to KOVS line. Some patchy fog is beginning to show itself on the backside of the rainfall west of the Mississippi River where skies are beginning to clear, but should only last through sunrise. VFR conditions then prevail for the rest of the TAF period. Winds remain from the east to southeast at around 5-10 kts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.