textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- There remains a low chance (20 to 50%) that freezing drizzle/drizzle may occur south of I-94 in western Wisconsin until about 6AM.

- Light snow/flurries will be possible through the morning. Breezy northwest winds today sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

- Warmer than normal temperatures to start the upcoming work week with highs in the 30s and 40s in many locations on Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

This Morning: Freezing Drizzle, Drizzle, and Light Snow Early This Morning

An upper level wave continues to move through the area. Associated with this wave is a good frontogenesis signal at 700mb that has mostly sat outside of our area minus areas north of I-94. This is where the worse impacts as far as lowest visibilities and higher snow rates have occurred. Due to cooler temperatures north of I-94, snow has been the dominant precipitation type. Up to a half inch of snow is expected in this area. South of I-94 has been a little tricky. Cloud bases have stayed above 6000ft inhibiting larger droplets to reach the surface, instead very fine droplets have made it through creating more mist, which is falling into areas where surface temperatures remain above freezing, rather than true freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Over the past hour or so, cloud bases have continued to fall into the MVFR flight category, between 1500 and 3000ft. This trend will continue through the morning. This is significant because as the cloud bases lower and lower, this will result in a better chance of seeing bigger drops and therefore freezing rain/drizzle. We already have lost the ice in the cloud so the precipitation type would favor freezing drizzle IF droplets can remain liquid and not turn into snow due to higher rates. Upstream observations in northern Minnesota have ice coming back into the cloud which would eliminate any chance of freezing drizzle. There remains a small window between now and when this ice comes back into the cloud where freezing drizzle could occur, over the next few hours mostly in western Wisconsin. Another thing to note is that as the cold front shifts southward, low-level lapse rates and lift increases which could help the potential for freezing drizzle to continue into the mid morning hours, HOWEVER HRRR/RAP soundings would suggest light snow/flurries rather than freezing drizzle, so have kept flurries mentioned through the morning for western Wisconsin and portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.

This Afternoon-Sunday: Drier, Cooler through Saturday, Seasonable Sunday

After the aforementioned cold front passes through the area, drier air moves in behind and we stay dry for the rest of the day. The stronger post frontal winds, sustained northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, continue for the early afternoon and gradually subside by the late afternoon/early evening timeframe as a surface high begins to move overhead. A secondary cold front passes through the region later this afternoon and with it comes colder air that will impact low temperatures for tonight and the highs for Saturday. Low temperatures tonight fall into the single digits above and below zero mainly Taylor and Clark counties for below zero temperatures). Highs on Saturday only get into the upper teens to low 20s. The surface high then shifts out of the area just as quickly as it arrived. Following the surface high is another shortwave that will bring low light snow chances (less than 15% based on LREF), for areas north of I-94. Once this wave exits, southwest flow returns and brings in warm air advection that will help to increase temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s.

Next Week: Warmer Temperatures to Start the Work Week

As we head into the start of next work week, the upper-level ridge that has been sitting over the western CONUS slides eastward ushering in southerly to southwesterly low-level flow. As a result, low-level warm advection will allow temperatures to warm above normal to start the new work week with the inter-quartile range for high temperatures in the NBM ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s on Monday and Tuesday. The 05.12z Extreme Forecast Index supports this with some probabilities (50-70%) for much warmer than EC climatology temperatures, however this would still remain fairly far from climatological records. By mid-week, the aforementioned ridges weakens with zonal flow being re-established. Consequently, temperatures will likely cool somewhat mid-week with median high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s in the NBM.

As far as precipitation chances are concerned next week, deterministic and ensemble guidance try to bring various systems through the region during the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. However, predictability in how any feature would manifest during this time range is low as the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian) only has broad brushed 30 percent probabilities for measurable precipitation across the local area during this time period. As a result, thinking the NBM precipitation probabilities of around 15- 30% during this period are feasible at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

MVFR CIGS continue through the morning and by early afternoon they dissipate/move south out of the region. Light snow/flurries possible this morning (15 to 30%) across western Wisconsin and portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Mostly clear skies for this afternoon through much of the overnight. Breezy northwest winds with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected through the afternoon. After midnight, the winds diminish and become light and variable.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.