textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record to record breaking warmth continues through Monday.

- A cold front moves southeast across the area on Monday night. This front will provide a 40 to 70 percent chance for light rain showers north of Interstate 94, and a 20-40 percent chance of light rain showers between Interstates 90 and 94.

- Seasonal temperatures return from Tuesday through Thursday Possibly colder at the end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Today through Monday

Southwest winds will continue to bring near-record to record warmth northward into the region through Monday. 850 mb temperatures will range from 18C to 21C. These temperatures are 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above-normal. Like much of last week, the NBM has been on the cool side on its high temperatures. As a result, continued with doing a 50 50 blend of the NBM and NBM 90th percentile to bring up these temperatures. On Sunday, this blend still looked to be too cool so added some 850 mb mixed- down (which ranged from the mid-80s to near 90) to bump the high temperatures a couple of degrees higher. High temperatures will be in the lower and mid-80s on both days, and low temperatures will be in the 60s and lower 70s.

Monday Night

A cold front will move southeast through the area. With this front moving through the area a bit slower, there could be some warm low records along and south of Interstate 90 for October 12.

The better low-level moisture continues to be north of Interstate 94. As a result, went with a 20-40 percent of light rain showers between Interstates 90 and 94, and anywhere from a 40 to 70 percent north of Interstate 94. Rainfall amounts still look to be on the light side. There is a 40-70 percent probability of a tenth of an inch or more north of Interstate 94 and around a 20 percent chance of those rainfall amounts near Interstate 90.

Remainder of the week

More seasonable temperatures will return on Tuesday and linger through Thursday with high temperatures mainly in the 60s and low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s. There are few ensemble members even colder at the end of the week, but confidence is very low (less than a 20 percent) that they will occur.

The NBM has some low rain chances from the remnants of Hurricane Simon getting as far north as northeast Iowa and far southern Wisconsin. Many of the operational global models keeps this moisture much further south, so kept these rain chances less than a 20 percent.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at the terminals. Gusty southerly winds will continue over the coming hours with a mostly unidirectional wind profile expected to cause turbulence instead of LLWS overnight. There may be a brief lull in gusts early this morning but gusts to between 18-25 kts should return by late morning/early afternoon at the terminals. Gusts should finally taper off with winds finally starting to subside after sunset.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Record warm temperature information for today into Monday.

La Crosse, WI (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/11 86F (1928) / 87F 66F (1928) / 64F 10/12 87F (1995) / 87F 65F (1896) / 70F

Rochester, MN (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/11 84F (2015) / 84F 65F (1928) / 66F 10/12 85F (1975) / 85F 61F (2008) / 66F

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.