textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder than normal temperatures expected Sunday with daytime highs in the 20s to low 30s gradual warming to near normal for Monday and eventually above normal, into the 50s for the end of the week.

- Decreasing confidence (20%) for wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday morning results in persistent precipitation chances through midweek primarily along southern reaches of the forecast area.

- Southwest flow ushers in heavy rain and thunder potential later in the week primarily along and south of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Temperatures Through The Week:

Passing high pressure on Sunday lingers through the start of the week, keeping the local forecast area sheltered from stronger warm air advection to the south and west. Although, some reprieve from colder than normal temperatures is expected through the start of the week as confidence for daytime highs in the 40s increases by Tuesday. While model solutions are adamant for locking in the 0C isotherm at 850mb over the forecast area, there has been a 1-3 degree warming trend in NBM dProg/Dt surface temperatures through midweek as southwest flow exerts more influence locally.

Precipitation Chances This Week:

A weaker trend to the synoptic mid level/latitude cyclone for the start of the week over the Rocky Mountain West compared to previous forecasts decreases initial preciptiation chances for the Upper Mississippi River Valley Monday night. Instead of the previous rapid ejection through the Central Plains, the gradually decaying mid level vorticity advection perpetuates precipitation chances primarily along the southern reaches of the forecast area through midweek until eventual enhancement through the end of the week. Should a quicker, more phased low take shape over the next 1-2 forecast cycles, an increase in wintry precipitation would be required for Monday night and Tuesday. Expect increased resolution and agreement in synoptic pattern as the perturbation will make landfall on the West Coast through today.

After potential winter precipitation type concerns Monday night, southwest flow becomes more dominant through midweek, raising thunder and heavy rain concerns primarily along and south of the forecast area at the current forecast hour.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at the terminals. Winds will remain light with gradual veering from the north to the southeast through the period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.