textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few storms develop west of the area this evening and move across much of the area tonight into Monday morning.

- Periodic shower/storm chances Tuesday afternon into Wednesday afternoon across the western and central Wisconsin. - Temperatures warm Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 both days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tonight into Monday

Focus tonight into Monday is the developing convection over southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this evening and tonight. A couple of pieces of energy embedded in west to east zonal flow will move over the forecast area tonight into Monday morning. Decent 925-850mb moisture transport/convergence and forcing is associated with the pieces of energy. Given the forcing/moisture convergence...this should allow for convection to develop west of the forecast area this evening and track over the forecast area tonight. Instability is limited as the latest guidance suggest 0-6km Most Unstable CAPE of 300 to 700 j/kg mainly over the northern half of the forecast area tonight. Coverage of thunder at this time appears to be isolated to scattered across the forecast area. Instability weakens over the forecast area after 12z Monday. With forcing/moisture convergence waning...convection should slowly weaken across the forecast area.

Monday night into Wednesday

Upper level ridge builds over the Northern Plain States Monday night into Tuesday. This will lift moisture convergence and weak shortwave troughs northward into central Minnesota Monday night into Tuesday. Subsidence underneath surface/upper level ridge should keep the southern forecast area mainly dry Monday night into Tuesday night. As the weak shortwave trough and weak forcing lifting north...there is the possibility...albeit small (20%)...over the northern parts of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night.

Upper level ridge builds into southern Canada and upper level trough digs over the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. A weak impulse embedded in the northwesterly aloft tracks over central Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon. Bufkit soundings over central Wisconsin show cap weakening due to daytime heating. If the cap erodes completely scattered showers/storms would develop mainly over central Wisconsin after 18z Wednesday.

Temperatures warm for Tuesday into Wednesday...with model guidance indicating 925mb temperatures climbing into the plus 20 to plus 25 degrees celsius and mostly sunny skies both days across the region. Temperatures will be above normal...with highs rising into the middle 80s to around 90.

Wednesday night through Sunday

Upper level ridge continues to amplify over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Canada through Wednesday night into next weekend. Subsidence underneath upper level ridge will suppress any convection/rain chances to the south and west of the forecast area. Mainly dry is expected through much of the forecast period. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with highs mainly in the middle 70s to middle 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the afternoon and into the evening until chances for showers and storms moves into the area overnight and into Monday morning. Currently, the CAMs have respectable coverage for showers and storms near the I-90 corridor, so would not be able to rule out vsby reductions to MVFR (20-40%) or perhaps even IFR (10% chance) with precipitation moving through. That being said, instability is fairly limited on Monday morning so not overly confident in the TSRA potential. Otherwise, winds will remain south to southwesterly throughout the TAF period and increase to around 10-15 kts during the late morning hours on Monday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.