textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries are expected in northeast Iowa and parts of southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin tonight. Potential for flurries Wednesday but very low (<20%) chance to get something heavier than that.

- Potential for more notable precipitation Thursday into Friday morning to our northeast but overall chances in our area remain low (20-30%), mainly east of the Mississippi.

- Warmer than freezing highs probable (50-90%) for Thursday before a cooler but uncertain weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Flurries and light snow tonight, perhaps again Wednesday

16z WV satellite snows a wave over OH, weak trough over MT/ND, and an upper low over western Ontario with northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA. At the surface, northwesterly winds are in place in the wake of a cold front with a high centered in Lake Winnipeg. Light snow is ongoing in the eastern Dakotas ahead of the weak trough. A bit of stratus lingered this morning and, with this deck within the DGZ, a few flurries were reported.

This evening into tonight, weak lift looks to occur as the MT/ND trough slides over IA. Progged soundings suggest occasional saturation within the DGZ will occur across the southwestern half of the forecast area but, with a notable dry layer between the DGZ and the ground centered around 800mb, will be tough to get snow to reach the surface. Have therefore shifted the forecast from light snow mentions with the potential for accumulation to mentions of flurries. Late Monday night into early Tuesday, saturation in the DGZ is lost while conditions close to the top of the boundary layer are near or at saturation. The good news is that HRRR depicts this region as being cold enough for ice to be produced there as well. Will nonetheless need to keep an eye on it as, should this be 1-2 C warmer, a bit of freezing drizzle could recur.

Departure of the weak trough Tuesday morning should lead to dry conditions through much of the column. Thus, when another disturbance arrives Tuesday afternoon, do not expect any precip at all as it moves through.

Wednesday morning, wave dives south out of far western Ontario. Steep low level laps rates look to develop following the associated frontal passage and, with the top of the boundary layer near saturation and below -10C, could get some additional flurries out of this but the chance for something measurable is very low (<20% per 02.00z LREF).

Notable precip likely remains to our northeast Thursday into Friday

Thursday into Friday, upper low moves over Ontario while another, much weaker disturbance ejects southeast over the CWA. These features appear to phase suboptimally and, in any case, best forcing for ascent remains to our northeast. However, may still get enough moisture and lift for at least some precip Thursday into Friday morning, with both 02.00z LREF and 02.13z NBM having around a 20-40% chance, both focused east of the Mississippi.

As for precip type, warm advection ahead of the front Thursday briefly brings >0C temperatures at 850mb over the CWA, introducing the possibility for precip other than snow. 02.00z LREF joint probabilities for warm 850mb temperatures, below freezing surface temperatures, and precip being co-located are only around 10%, driven almost entirely by the CMC ensemble. Additionally, 02.12z GFS soundings suggest the absence of a strong warm nose that would lead to problems. Therefore, think that freezing rain is very unlikely (<10%) and, with best chance for precip residing after the cold front moves through, snow would be the favored type over rain.

Above freezing Thursday, uncertain temps this weekend

Aforementioned warm advection Thursday likely (50-90%) brings surface temperatures above freezing during the afternoon, the first time in 2-3 weeks for most locations with an early high temperature above freezing also possible (35-50%) for Friday. Following this, when interquartile ranges are under 5 degrees, uncertainty increases markedly for the weekend with ranges for both lows and highs exceeding 10 degrees as guidance disagrees on the strength of the surface high that develops in the wake of the Ontario upper low and the potential for a shortwave 850mb ridge to nose over the region Saturday into Sunday. Thus, while our forecast highs are mainly in the 20s and 30s for the weekend with lows in the single digits and teens, confidence in these values is very low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A FEW-BKN deck of stratocumulus is present at issuance south of a CCY-CMY line. While portions of this deck have increased in coverage over the past hour, expect it to remain just southeast of LSE or, if a ceiling does occur, it should be brief. Moving ahead to tonight, a few flurries may (30%) occur southwest of a RGK-LNR line but reductions in visibility to under 6 miles are not expected. MVFR stratus may develop as well after 06z but confidence in sky cover is too low to include several hours of MVFR near the end of this period with this update.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.