textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today (65 to 71F) with some sprinkles possible later today and early evening. Some light rain showers possible Saturday morning (30%) north and east of La Crosse.

- Cooler Sunday with morning frost possible in Wisconsin again. Monday morning frost/freeze looks possible as well.

- Slowly warming temperatures next week with higher rain chances Tuesday (60-75%) and preliminary amounts around one-quarter inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Through Saturday: Warming Up, Mainly Dry

The northwest flow wave train continues to ripple weak impulses through the area with the systems challenged to saturate the atmosphere closer to the surface. Winds will come around to southwest with moderate warm advection today as 925 mb temperatures warm about 10C. The warming will be countered by some afternoon clouds as one impulse arrives later today with mainly high-based, enhanced cumulus to sprinkles moving through west to east (4->8pm) and mainly south of I-90. Rain chances do not seem high enough (10-15%) with the forcing to add rain chances at this time. Have bumped highs today a couple more degrees...around 70F.

By later tonight, consistent signal remains that a somewhat stronger shortwave trough and cold front swing through Saturday morning. The 08.00Z CAM guidance would suggest the rain showers associated with this wave are most widespread to the northwest over the Twin Cites, with a consensus diminishing trend shifting southeast as QG forcing seems to wane. Have increased rain chances to about 30% north and east of La Crosse with fairly good consensus on forecast soundings showing lowering clouds and saturation moving from La Crosse to Medford WI. Given the low amounts of moisture to work with, QPF totals should remain less than 0.05 inches across the region. Winds behind the front will start to pick up, ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Temperatures should be slightly cooler post-frontally Saturday and another 10 degree drop for Sunday. With the cooler and drier post frontal airmass in place, chances for frost/freeze conditions return by Sunday morning with lows starting to drop back into the 30s. Light winds and clear skies would suggest increasing probabilities of frost or freeze east and north of La Crosse.

Monday to Thursday: Continued Warming, Rain Returns Tuesday

Dry conditions overall will continue Monday as a surface high pressure moves overhead. Monday morning could again produce frost/freeze concerns. As the high pressure slides south and east through the day Monday, we'll finally start to see some moisture return to the area with warm air advection and surface south/southeasterly flow. Deeper moisture will start to pool on the back edge of the dome of high pressure late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Around the same time, a more pronounced shortwave trough is expected to dive southeast out of the Canadian Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A weak surface low should be off to our southeast with a frontal boundary pushing into the region. The combination of increased moisture and both surface and upper level lift should create our best chances for rain in the extended forecast with PoPs already in the 50-70% range for 06-18Z Tuesday. Details on QPF will need to be ironed out over the coming days but overall, this looks to be the most promising precipitation potential for the Upper Mississippi Valley. High temperatures will also continue on their upward swing with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s by mid-next week, and possibly 80s by week's end.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A cold front will bring mid- and high clouds to the area tonight. In addition, there may be some scattered showers. Confidence was not high enough at this time to include them in the TAFs.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...None. IA...None.