textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Thursday brings rain potential (15-50%) to the region but this will likely remain southeast of the Driftless Area.

- At least 1" of rain still plausible (30-80%) Friday into Saturday. A possibility (20-30%) for thunderstorms Friday evening as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Rain likely remains southeast Thursday

Wednesday into Thursday, upper low currently over the Great Basin barrels eastward over northern IL/IN. 850mb moist advection ahead of this feature should bring enough northward from the Gulf for a shield of precip to develop with progged thermal profiles suggesting an all-rain event. For our neck of the woods, 02.12z to 03.00z operational GFS/EC/NAM keep most of the rain to our south/east. Given this, was tempted to cut PoPs from NBM values before 00z Friday. However, 02.12z LREF and the 02.12z CMC suggest enough support remains to hold onto a mention (15-50%) of rain across most of the area with best chances in far SW WI. In any case, amounts do not draw concern, as 03.01 NBM has only a 10% chance to reach 1" of accumulation and this is largely limited to Grant County WI.

Rain likely Friday into Saturday with potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Longwave upper trough moves over the western CONUS Thursday with a lead wave ejecting northeast toward Lake Superior Friday into Saturday before the main upper trough slides eastward Saturday night. Extended period of southerly moist advection will likely lead to an anomalously moist air mass being in place - 02.12z NAEFS PWATS are above the 99.5th percentile of model climatology. Thus, while the overall pattern is progressive, 03.01z NBM is bullish for this far out (30-80%) that a good chunk of the area will see more than 1" of rain across Friday and Saturday. While highs in the 40s and 50s are favored Tuesday through Saturday, some remaining frost in the soil may lead to additional runoff and some rises on creeks and streams. As for other hazards, 03.00z GFS MUCAPE rises to around 500 J/kg Friday evening so have kept thunder in the forecast. While not a big possibility at this time, CSU GEFS ML guidance suggests an outside shot at a severe storm, certainly plausible - focusing on a hail risk - given strong flow aloft leading to robust deep shear and seasonably cold temperatures aloft.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

There will be brief break from the MVFR conditions at KRST this evening and then they will return overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning.

KLSE will remain VFR until 04.10z and then ceilings and visibilities will become IFR/MVFR.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.