textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler for the weekend with a chance for some flurries.

- Potential for accumulating snow Tuesday and again Wednesday/Thursday.

- A return to around normal temperatures for the middle to end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Cooler weekend with potential flurries

19z WV satellite shows cyclonic flow over the western two thirds of the CONUS. Upper low which brought last night's hammering of snow has departed to the east with northwesterly winds and stratocumulus across the CWA. Upper wave from the Four Corners will arrive tomorrow but this should skirt by just to our south tomorrow morning. However, as the main body of the upper trough swings eastward Saturday night and a wave drops out of Canada in northwest flow aloft Sunday night, could get a few flurries as mid level moisture remains across the region. Accumulating snow is unlikely, as reflected in 20.12z REFS guidance, where ensemble maximum snow values this weekend are under 1" across the area.

Potential for accumulating snow midweek

20.12z guidance has unfortunately backed off on the suggestion that northwesterly flow aloft would become quasi-zonal from midweek. Thus, will need to remain alert for clipper style systems to eject out of Canada and bring us additional snow. In particular, a disturbance Tuesday and then another next Wednesday/Thursday provide the most probable windows depending on the trajectory of the upper wave. For Tuesday, broad agreement that the wave will arrive around midday with most (80%) ensemble members keeping appreciable (1"+) snow northeast of the CWA with the remainder (20%) confining accumulation to north/east of I-94. For Wednesday/Thursday, a variety of timing and trajectories for a clipper ejecting out of southern Alberta. While the probability for at least 3" is low (<25%) when examining both ensemble guidance and time-lagged cluster analysis, there are a few members with greater than 5" of accumulation.

Return to near normal mid to late week

Guidance trend to hold onto the northwesterly flow aloft is also reflected in progged temperature interquartile ranges - the mid 30s to mid 40s seen in the 19.13z NBM now range from the low 30s to around 40 with the 20.13z run. Certainly cooler than we have been recently but more in line with normal for late February.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Largely MVFR conditions present across the area with a few isolated pockets of VFR. A few light flurries are being reported at stations across SE Minnesota and NE Iowa but visibility reductions seem minimal overall. These should taper off in the coming hours. A lower confidence CIG forecast is on deck for the next 12-24 hours with guidance continuing to waffle between MVFR and low end VFR conditions. MVFR CIGs should be the predominant category through the period with some transient VFR possible at the terminals for a few hours overnight. Winds will remain out of the northwest between 5-15 kts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.