textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation chances Tuesday has low confidence in storm potential at current forecast hour.

- Warming through through the early week and again late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Rain Potential Tuesday:

Other than low potential (<15%) for light rain east of the Mississippi River Valley Sunday night into early Monday morning as an easterly exiting lobe of positive vorticity advection grazes the area, a dry start to the new week. Subsequent, widespread, potentially heavy precipitation chances progress the Upper Mississippi River Valley Tuesday. The responsible mid level wave seen nearing the southern Canadian west coast on upper level water vapor imagery is forecasted to sag southeast straddling appendages of an anomalous upper level ridge. Interaction between building of the upstream antecedent ridge axis with the trough causes discrepancy in southern extent of low center and accompanying local impacts as the trough also phases and slows while progressing through the forecast area. EPS confidence has shifted slightly north in recent runs, now affecting the northern half of the local forecast area, slightly more in line with ongoing GEFS solutions which suggests additional phasing quickly lifting into southern Canada. Limited impacts outside of needed heavy rain due to lack of instability attributed to morning diurnal timing.

Warm End To The Week:

The anomalous (90th percentile SPC RAOB Climatology) upper level ridge builds east through the week, ushering in warmer-than-normal temperatures locally into next weekend. Current confidence is low regarding exact temperatures and timing as the local forecast area may be on the northeastern periphery of near record temperatures.

Until then, another couple nights of Frost/Freeze potential possible primarily locally in central Wisconsin.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Mostly clear skies are expected through the period. Northwest winds will be in the 10 to 15 knot range this afternoon. Otherwise, the winds will be light and variable.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ017-029-034- 042>044. MN...None. IA...None.