textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing light snow continues east through the forecast area early this morning, with low probabilities (<20%) for freezing drizzle as precipitation wraps up. Overall impacts expected to be minimal as widespread light snow limits bare surfaces for ice accumulation.

- Similar bout of precipitation, albeit mostly liquid, expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Low probabilities (<20%) for freezing rain as above freezing daytime highs not expected to substantially or sufficiently cool. Local confidence current constrained in central Wisconsin.

- Anomalous warmth to wrap up the week and into the early weekend with record highs possible. Current confidence (50%) for record breaking remains west of the Mississippi River, closer to the warmest temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Precipitation Chances, Nearly All Rain Wednesday Night:

A similar quick hitting system, mostly realized as rain, expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While select model soundings suggest a limited ZR window in central Wisconsin, confidence for above freezing daytime high temperatures today followed by low level WAA limit temporal and spatial confidence for cooling of surface temperatures below freezing Wednesday night. Therefore, while have kept slight mention in central Wisconsin in current forecast package (18.06Z), confidence for nearly all rain remains. Overall rainfall amounts below 0.1" expected, highest in central Wisconsin. Otherwise, southwestern extent of measurable preciptiation has been an evolving forecast detail as high resolution model guidance suggests light rainfall covering the forecast area, albeit temporarily.

Warming Through The End Of The Week:

As the subsequent area of weak cyclonic flow follows a meager baroclinic boundary strung along our southwestern peripheral counties from southeast Minnesota into northeast Iowa Thursday morning, WAA quickly takes shape through the Central Plains, aimed at the Upper Midwest. Eastern extent of return flow through Thursday evening will be discerning factor for daytime highs on Thursday with current confidence for the 50 degree isotherm gracing and grazing select western peripheral counties in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and 40s elsewhere.

The exact location of this weak baroclinic boundary strung northwest to southeast near the forecast area will determine extent and degree of warmth locally with hottest temperatures expected Saturday with a Phase 7 MJO over the Western Pacific. Current local confidence is higher Friday with 5-10 degree interquartile ranges from the mid 50s to mid 60s for much of the forecast area increasing to 10-20 degree IQR spread for Saturday from the mid 50s to mid 70s. Current confidence (50%) keeps record warmth nearing Rochester, MN climate site and not La Crosse, WI. See forecast numbers in Climate section below for further details.

Weekend Precipitation Chances:

As the anomalous warm, moist airmass advects through the forecast area this weekend, subsequent potentially widespread precipitation chances return Saturday night through Sunday morning. Most recent GFS (18.00Z) suggests cyclogenesis through the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley tied to a trough connected to a Rocky Mountain Low over the Southern Plains. Resultant increased moisture increased most recent GEFS (17.18Z) probabilities for 0.01" in 24 hours to 30-80% across the forecast area. Current forecast hour limits long term model availability to the 12Z ECMWF which depicts a broad area of high pressure instead.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions due to ongoing light snow should improve over the next 6 hours as the snow departs. VFR conditions are expected over the following 12 hours but will need to keep an eye on MFVR/IFR returning closer to 06z Thursday as another weather system dives southeast through the region.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Record warmth potential Saturday, March 21st, 2026:

Forecast/Record High

Rochester, MN 69/70(1918) La Crosse, WI 66/75(2022)

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.