textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures through Friday give way to a weekend warm up with highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

- Mostly dry conditions expected through the weekend before rain chances (20-50%) return on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Today - Friday: Mostly Dry with Near to Slightly Above Normal Temperatures

Northwesterly flow continues to dominate the synoptic flow pattern through the end of the week which in turn will keep temperatures largely steady-state with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Additionally, with minimal synoptic forcing really not expecting much for precipitation. If there is any chance for precipitation, it would likely be on Friday morning as a stripe of 850mb warm air advection pushes north into the region on the western periphery of a surface high that is pushing eastward. Overall, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has some measurable probabilities (20- 60%) with the highest probabilities across northeast IA where this forcing regime is the strongest. However, given that the available moisture is not overly respectable with this forcing, would think that precipitation amounts will be limited.

This Weekend - Early Next Week: Weekend Warm Up, Precipitation Potential Early Next Week

As we head into the weekend, northwesterly flow turns to zonal as a broad upper-level ridge moves through the region. Consequently, the low-level winds exhibit a notable response with a tightening surface pressure gradient on Saturday allowing for breezy southerly winds on Saturday afternoon. Given fairly decent diurnal mixing in the afternoon, noting some probabilities (30-60%) in the NBM on Saturday for wind gusts over 35 mph, primarily across southeast MN. Otherwise, would expect temperatures to warm in a fairly pronounced fashion with some probabilities (10-40%) for highs to top 80 degrees in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) across the local area on Saturday and Sunday. Thinking that given the setup that these probabilities may be a bit higher due to the southerly flow and ridge overhead.

As we head into early next week, precipitation chances will begin to increase as a trough situated over the Rockies begins to be translated eastbound which in turn will flatten the aforementioned ridge that is present over the weekend. Consequently, measurable precipitation probabilities in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) begin to increase (30-50%) over the local area beginning on Monday. However, this is widely dependent on how quickly that trough over the Rockies highlighted in much of deterministic guidance begins to slide eastward. If this trough is slower to push eastward and leaves the ridge in place, we could even some moisture from the remnant tropical cyclone moving northward from the Deep South into early next week across southern portions of our local area. However, this would be a fairly low confidence scenario. In any case, the general gist of the upcoming week would suggest increasing precipitation potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Valley fog has developed across portions of the Black River this morning, impacting the KLSE terminal. IFR/MVFR visibilities will slosh in and out of the terminal over the coming hours so have included a TEMPO grouping through 14Z to cover this. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the majority of the period at the terminals. A weak cold front has worked its way through the region, causing winds to veer to the northwest. Northwest winds will then continue through the period, increasing by late morning. Gusts to around 20 kts will be possible at the terminals this afternoon before coming down again this evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.