textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Mixed precipitation continues to make its way through southwestern into central Wisconsin this afternoon.

- Snow for Wednesday night continues to trend southward with northeast Iowa having a 30 to 40% chance for measurable snowfall.

- Warmer for Friday with highs in the 40s and low 50s, but areas that have a snowpack may not hit these temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Wintry mix is trending slightly more prolific with current observational trends in the Twin Cities Metro as numerous accidents have occurred and many observational sites are reporting a combination of freezing rain and sleet. This is associated with a narrow band of precipitation interacting with a profound warm nose as shown in the recent RAP/HRRR soundings. As a result, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of southeast MN and western WI to address this threat as the band moves southeast into the area towards noon. Dendritic growth zone saturation seems fairly absent per SPC mesoanalysis until you get east of the Mississippi River. As a result, highest confidence for freezing drizzle/rain impacts generally is along and west of the Mississippi River with more of a sleet/snow solution east. Will have to watch the very southwest portions of the advisory (Dodge & Mower counties) as the CAMs do have some saturation issues to contend with that limits precipitation confidence. However, have opted to include these counties in the advisory based on current upstream trends. This band may manifest as a period of sleet initially with some convective precipitation on the leading edge before switching over to freezing rain near and west of the Mississippi. In any case, expecting a quick progression of the band through the local area as shown in the CAMs with it likely exiting to the east of the region by the 3-5pm window.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today: Wintry Mix/Snow

A surface low continues to make its way across northern Wisconsin and into the UP of Michigan. Associated with this low is a cold front that is moving across Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. While the cooler air comes in this evening, along the front there is a narrow band of mixed precipitation stretching down into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. This band will move east this afternoon. Even though surface temperatures remain a few degrees below freezing, there is good warm air advection in the lower levels, just above the surface, to create a warm nose. This allows for the precipitation to melt and then due to there not being enough time for the droplets to completely freeze back into snow, they fall as either liquid or sleet. Confidence is highest for the location of the snow which is mostly along and north of I-94. A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected for areas between the Mississippi River and I-94 in Wisconsin. While accumulations are light, a very quick glaze is possible in areas that experience freezing drizzle. All precipitation moves out of the forecast area by the middle of the afternoon.

Wednesday-Thursday: Light Snow Chances

Northwest flow aloft remains over the region as we are under the southern extent of a longwave trough. This allows for a couple of shortwaves to pass through the region. The first shortwave continues to keep its southerly track across Iowa and Illinois. The majority of ensemble members keep the CWA dry with the exception of portions of northeast Iowa, depending on the ensemble member. As an example, only 50% of GEFS members have measurable snowfall at Oelwein and this value has decreased over the past few days. Snow chances are now between 15 and 25% across northeast Iowa. Another shortwave trough dips down into northern Wisconsin on Thursday increasing snow chances for areas north of I-94. The question for Thursday is where the moisture ends up. The ECMWF and CMC have it further south, reaching the I-90 corridor, whereas the GFS has it stay along the Wisconsin/Michigan border.

Friday: Warm Up!

Despite the region being under northwest flow aloft, the lower levels shift southwesterly allowing for good warm air advection to filter in. The mean 850mb temperatures based on the most recent LREF, are between 2 and 6 degrees C which is translating to NBM surface temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s for most locations. This is something to monitor because due to the heavier snowpack, temperatures will be on the cooler side so there is some uncertainty on how warm areas with snow cover actually get. Areas that do not have any snow cover will have the higher chances of reaching 50F.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, temperatures start off below normal for the weekend with highs in the 20s then by early next week temperatures gradually warmup closer to near normal which is the low to mid 30s. The next measurable snow chance is along an f-gen band that sets up across the region. There is some uncertainty with where this band sets up and how strong it will be so stay tuned for further updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Main aviation concern at 25.00Z TAF issuance is off surface frontal boundary passage concurrent with temporarily lightened winds in river valleys nearing transient LLWS criteria. While current off surface wind observations remain below criteria, have alerted local airports with light surface winds to the concern. Increased northwest winds over the next couple of hours ameliorate further concern into tonight.

Scattered MVFR cloud deck may TEMPO BKN MVFR west of the Mississippi River Valley (i.e., KRST TAF site) tonight. Given low confidence and coverage in drier airmass, have left out of KRST TAF.

MVFR clouds may linger through Wednesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.