textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Near/below freezing temperatures again for the morning, focused mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- The risk for precipitation Friday is waning and any impacts from Saturday's rainfall is looking to be low. The best chances for our next wetting rain look to come next Tuesday.

- Slowly warming temperatures through the start of the weekend with highs by Saturday returning to around 65 to 70 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Tonight through Saturday: Warming Up, Basically Dry

We'll see yet another round of near freezing lows tomorrow morning as conditions remain primed for radiational cooling east of the Mississippi River (dry airmass, light winds, mostly clear skies). Locations west of the river should stay in the mid to upper 30s as mid-to-high clouds start to move in later overnight, tempering the radiational cooling. A Frost Advisory is in effect for all our Wisconsin counties from 1 AM to 8AM tomorrow.

Conditions look to remain dry as forecast guidance in both the medium and short ranges have continued to trend further south with any precipitation chances. Apart from the low chance that a transient weak shortwave impulse sets off a few isolated showers across SW Wisconsin, the area should largely remain dry. 07.12 HREF guidance shows only a 10-20% chance of any measurable precipitation for the aforementioned region. As such, have generally capped rain chances around 12 percent with a continued lack of available moisture. Surface flow will finally start to back to a more west/southwesterly direction, allowing for some subtle warm air advection into the region by tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures have increased a bit with highs sitting in the upper 60s to right around 70 for most of the area.

By late Friday night, the 12Z suite of global ensembles are in good agreement that a weak surface low is expected to take shape across Western Ontario with a weak cold front extending to the west/southwest. As the surface low drops into the Northern Great Lakes, the cold front will gradually sag south into our area, moving through during the morning hours. Rain chances along this front have continued to decrease as mid level moisture return ahead of the southward advancing dome of dry air/high pressure appears to be much more meager than previous forecasts. Still a few showers will be possible, especially across West Central Wisconsin where lift will be slightly amplified closer to the center of the low. Given the low amounts of moisture to work with, QPF totals remain less than 0.05 inches across the region. Winds behind the front will start to pick up, ushering in a slightly cooler and much drier airmass. Temperatures should only take a slight hit for Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Mid Next Week: Continued Warming, Rain Returns Tuesday

With the cooler and drier post frontal airmass in place, chances for frost/freeze conditions return by Sunday morning with lows starting to drop back into the 30s. Dry conditions overall will continue through Monday as a surface high pressure moves overhead. As the high pressure slides south and east through the day Monday, we'll finally start to see some moisture return to the area with warm air advection and surface south/southeasterly flow. Deeper moisture will start to pool on the back edge of the dome of high pressure late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Around the same time, a more pronounced shortwave trough is expected to dive southeast out of the Canadian Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A weak surface low should be off to our southeast with a frontal boundary pushing into the region. The combination of increased moisture and both surface and upper level lift should create our best chances for rain in the extended forecast with PoPs already in the 50-70% range for 06-18Z Tuesday. Details on QPF will need to be ironed out over the coming days but overall, this looks to be the most promising precipitation potential for the Upper Mississippi Valley. High temperatures will also continue on their upward swing with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s by mid-next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR expected through the period and areawide. Winds will become light and variable overnight changing to the south-southwest for Friday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...None. IA...None.