textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain persists through Thursday with on and off showers moving through the region. There is high confidence (50-80%) for additional rainfall totals over 1/2" through this timeframe, especially south of I-90.

- Temperatures will be well above normal today with highs in the 60s to near 70. However, temperatures will gradually decrease throughout this week and into the weekend.

- Conditions trend drier this weekend with much lower chances (10- 20%) for showers

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Today - Thursday: Persistent Off and On Rainfall

A fairly stubborn upper-level troughing regime is in store for the region throughout much of this work week, which in turn will likely keep our conditions cloudy and rainy. Deterministic guidance (GFS/EC/Canadian) has generally agreed on the following notion that the upper-level shortwave trough currently situated over western KS/OK/TX will interact with a secondary upper-level low center over the Northern Great Plains. As this occurs, the southern trough will gradually be pulled northeastward in the main synoptic flow pattern and thus continued to pivot pieces of vorticity advection through the synoptic flow into the region for the day on Tuesday. Consequently, measurable precipitation chances remain relatively high (60-100%) in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) during this timeframe.

As we head into Wednesday and Thursday, the two aforementioned upper- level features phase with each other into a closed upper-level low over the Upper Midwest that gradually pushes northeast through the Great Lakes region. As a result, rainfall chances continue to persist across the region with high probabilities (50-90% chance) for measurable rainfall given any 6-hr interval during this timeframe in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble). Eventually, the upper-level low pushes northeast from the region bringing any precipitation potential with it.

Consequently, expecting conditions to be cloud with periods of rain through Thursday before the low departs to the east by Friday morning. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, precipitable waters remain fairly impressive in the presence of the upper-level low with values remaining around 1-1.5" in recent deterministic guidance, with higher values possible south of I-90 for today. Consequently, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has high probabilities (50-80%) for additional rainfall over 0.5" today with amounts trending lighter as moisture becomes more limited as the upper-level closed low begins to trek eastward. As far as temperatures are concerned, the warmest temperatures will likely be today with the southerly push out ahead of the surface low associated with the aforementioned northern upper-level low. Consequently, the NBM has highs generally in the 60s to perhaps nearing 70 for today. With the moisture present over the region, overnight lows may not fall much with lows realistically only falling into the middle 50s to near 60. This changes noticeably on Wednesday and Thursday as the aforementioned upper-level low begins to move east, allowing for westerly flow to usher in some cooler temperatures for the region with highs falling into the 50s and lower 60s on Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday into the Weekend: Trending Drier and Cooler

Zonal flow takes over on Saturday before another trough digs south into the Upper Midwest during the second half of this next weekend. This trough may bring additional chances (15-20%) for precipitation late Saturday into Sunday after a mostly dry day on Friday. The trough will also usher in a secondary, reinforcing cooler airmass that will keep temperatures down near average next weekend.

Muscha/Naylor

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Ongoing precipitation and IFR-MVFR impacts expected to continue through much, if not all of the 03.12Z TAF period. The responsible trough and surface low continue lifting through northeast, lingering over the forecast area through Wednesday. Resultant precipitation chances linger through Wednesday night and potentially Thursday at both TAF sites (KLSE/KRST) accompanied by IFR/MVFR ceilings.

CLIMATE

Issued at 123 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Record Warm Low Potential Tuesday (Nov 3):

Record Warm Low (Year) Forecast Low Temp ----------------------------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 55 (1956)59 F La Crosse, WI 58 (2022) 61 F

In fact, the forecast record warm lows for both Rochester and La Crosse would break the all time monthly November record warm lows if they pan out. The current monthly November records are as follows:

Rochester, MN: 57 (Nov. 1938) La Crosse, WI: 60 (Nov. 1938 and 2020)

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.