textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and freezing rain/drizzle chances overnight into Thursday morning increase overnight Thursday into Friday morning. First round tonight will start with freezing drizzle chances increasing through Thursday morning. Second round hinges on above freezing surface temperatures Thursday afternoon cooling below freezing overnight.

- Warmth Thursday and Friday returns early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Warmer Thursday & Friday, Periodic Precipitation:

As a trough associated with the Polar low of the last several days slides southeast of the forecast area this morning on GOES WV imagery, northwest flow is expected today and through the weekend. Perturbations within the flow will perpetuate light, lower confidence, and periodic precipitation chances through the weekend. Otherwise, persistent temperatures today in the 20s warm are expected to warm up for Thursday and Friday.

Light Snow & Freezing Drizzle Potential Overnight Into Thursday Morning:

Light snow chances (20-60%) graze northern peripheral counties in central Wisconsin tonight through Thursday morning. This has been an increasing trend compared to previous forecasts. While overall and initial precipitation type is expected to be snow, loss of upper level ice nucleation through the morning hours suggests potential freezing drizzle as the morning continues. Overall confidence remains low-medium (20-40%) as surface saturation could not come to fruition and surface temperatures will be near freezing, eventually warming above freezing through Thursday. Overall snowfall amounts <1" expected.

Light Snow & Freezing Rain Potential Overnight Thursday Into Friday Morning:

Subsequent precipitation chances again in central Wisconsin signal additional freezing rain/drizzle probabilities with an area of drier low to mid level dry air preventing ice nucleation and stout low level saturation overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Besides increasing PoPs from NBM, have increased freezing rain mentions based on high resolution soundings. While forecast soundings support icing, extent of warmer surface temperatures through Thursday will be important detail to remain cognizant of as current confidence (50-70%) for surface temperatures popping above freezing through Friday morning. Therefore, current aforementioned confidence mainly in the 6-9Z window should temperatures cool below freezing overnight after anomalous warmth on Thursday afternoon. Should icing occur, overall amounts will remain less than 0.1".

Cooling Into The Weekend, Warmer Next Week:

As the associated disturbance slides through the Upper Mississippi River Valley to start the weekend, temperatures return to near normal for Saturday. Confidence for above normal temperatures returning into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR through much of the 04.12Z TAF period. Low probabilities for MVFR ceilings west of the Mississippi River locally in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa this morning increase tonight. Low probabilities for IFR ceilings tonight primarily west of the Mississippi River Valley in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Precipitation impacts expected to remain mostly in central Wisconsin affecting locally smaller airports.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.