textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today with slightly above normal temperatures Sunday then unseasonably warm for much of next week, with Monday having the warmest highs in the mid to upper 40s!

- Mostly dry forecast until Wednesday night through Friday morning when the next widespread precipitation chance (20 to 35%) occurs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Today-Sunday: Cooler Today, Low Chance of Snow For Some

A surface high overhead shifts off to the east this morning and as it does, a weak shortwave trough dips down into the region this evening. While weak warm air advection returns this afternoon, high temperatures only get into the upper teens to mid 20s. While CAMs have shown low reflectivity values over our forecast area this afternoon and evening, the low levels are quite dry, limiting any precipitation from reaching the ground. The better forcing arrives as the wave comes in this evening. Saturation increases at the low levels enough to bring mentionable PoPs (15 to 20%) for areas along and north of I-94. Between I-90 and I-94 have gone ahead put a low chance of flurries as there will be low level forcing but quite dry low levels, so it will be a matter of if the forcing can help the atmosphere squeak out a couple flurries. For areas along and north of I-94, up to a couple tenths of snow will be possible. With the continued weak warm air advection overnight and on Sunday, low temperatures tonight stay mostly in the mid teens to low 20s and highs on Sunday return to the upper 20s to low 30s.

Monday-Tuesday: Warm Up!

Shortwave ridging builds into the region with 950mb temperatures ranging from 6 to 10C by Monday afternoon. With good warm air advection coming into the area, temperatures on Monday continue to be in the low to mid 40s, with some locations potentially getting up to 50F, a 15 to 25% chance, in portions of northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. A cold front dips down through the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, however there are differences between models on how strong this front will be. the GFS has a stronger front which therefore keeps our temperatures on Tuesday much cooler than the CMC and ECMWF which support a weaker front which would result in highs potentially staying in the upper 30s to low 40s. This front is associated with a surface low over southern Canada that brings energy into northern Wisconsin which could result in snow for Taylor County, however confidence is not there on how far south this energy gets, so PoPs remain below 10%.

Wednesday-Saturday: Above Normal Temperatures, Precipitation?

Zonal to southwest upper level flow until Friday. Temperatures remain about 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs generally in the mid to upper 30s. The uncertainty regarding this portion of the forecast is when and where we may see precipitation chances. By midweek a shortwave trough comes down into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, however exact location and duration of precipitation chances. The ECMWF is slower as it compacts the wave before shifting it off to the east, compared to the GFS which has a more transient wave. These solutions are well represented in the ensemble members for both as about 70% of EPS members show measurable snowfall and only 50% of GEFS members do. We will continue to keep an eye out for the this precipitation chance as this is the next chance for widespread precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning transition to southeast winds later this morning. Sustained winds for much of the forecast period are mostly in the 10 to 15 mph range. Mostly clear skies this morning followed by mid level clouds, between 10kft and 15kft, moving in this afternoon and lingering into the overnight. Light snow/flurries will be possible this evening and into the overnight for areas along and north of I-94.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.