textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow this morning in central Wisconsin may end as freezing drizzle (20%) causing slippery to hazardous travel conditions.

- Light snow (40-70%) and freezing drizzle (25%-35%)chances again tonight into early Friday morning. Initial transient bout of frozen precipitation tonight fills in with light snow overnight. Freezing drizzle possible primarily on southwestern flank of snow primarily from west-central through southwest into central Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Warm Today:

High confidence (80%+) for slightly above normal temperatures gracing the forecast area today with daytime highs in the 30s for most of the area, outside of central Wisconsin.

Light Snow & Freezing Drizzle Chances This Morning:

As low level warm air advection, seen on early morning surface observations bifurcating the southwestern half of the forecast area, accompanying low level moisture advection raises freezing drizzle concerns in addition to early morning light snow.

As light snow progresses south-southeast through central Wisconsin through morning hours, lower confidence (20%) in subsequent freezing drizzle upon departure later this morning is due to similar concurrence of near surface desaturation with loss of upper level ice nucleation. Additionally, freezing drizzle primarily expected where light snow previously fallen, limiting accretion on bare surfaces.

Light Snow & Freezing Drizzle Chances Tonight-Friday Morning:

Subsequent freezing drizzle chances tonight are slightly higher confidence to occur (30-40%) but exact location remains in question. While confidence for above freezing temperatures temporarily advecting east across the forecast area today is high (80%), degree of cooling post sunset remains the inherent atmospheric challenge as overcast skies will limit outgoing longwave radiation while below freezing soil temperatures will leech energy from below. Therefore many mesoscale factors such as face direction, affecting the residual snow pack and subsequent albedo, permitting an increased budget of incoming shortwave radiation during the day on more southern facing slopes.

Regardless, lower confidence (15%) in an /initial/ short-lived window for freezing drizzle chances darting southeast through the forecast area tonight (03Z-06Z) as low level frontogenesis lobes pass ahead of the main shortwave deepening upstream. The southwestern periphery of overnight light snow chances (40-70%) mainly in central Wisconsin will be the higher confidence (25-35%), longer lasting (05Z-11Z) freezing drizzle scenario to remain cognizant of. Current confidence keeps this narrow northwest- southeast oriented band from west-central into southwest and central Wisconsin. A slight western shift in precipitation chances compared to previous forecasts grazes the Mississippi River mostly within the initial, lower chances and a glaze of ice forecasted.

Warm Air Continues Next Week:

As an appendage of the Polar low over central Canada plunges through the Upper Midwest to start the weekend, a temporary cool down is expected (60-80%) back into the teens to mid 20s for daytime highs across the forecast area. The warm air stages its return to wrap up the weekend with moderate confidence (47-54%) for daytime highs in the 30s for Sunday increasing into the 40s for the southern half of the forecast area on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light snow this morning and again expected to mostly affect locally smaller airports in central Wisconsin (KMDZ, KBCK, K82C). Lowering ceilings associated with passing precipitation likely will affect both TAF sites. Wintry mix impacts expected mostly east of KLSE TAF site although can't be ruled out in a short window overnight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.