textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are expected to begin the new week with flurries to light snow showers possible (10-30%) tonight through Sunday, primarily east of the Mississippi River.

- Snow potential returns mid-week as two systems move through the Upper Midwest.

- Near to above normal temperatures are favored for the middle to end of the new week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today - Sunday: Cooler, Flurries to Light Snow

Upper level longwave ridging located over the western United States builds eastward this afternoon, allowing associated surface high pressure to build across the central United States through the beginning of the new week. Relatively quiet weather is expected in response to these features while cold air continues to advect into the Upper Midwest, resulting in below normal temperatures over the next few days. Fairly minimal spread in temperatures exist within the individual ensemble solutions themselves with only minor disagreement between the various suites. As such, confidence is high that high temperatures top out in the upper teens to low 20s Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures are similar across ensembles, generally falling into the low teens to upper single digits tonight and Sunday night, but some potential to fall below 0 degrees (10-20%) remains during the overnight hours where the snowpack is situated and where winds are able to diminish.

Outside of temperatures, a quick moving 500hPa shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity advection propagate southward on the eastern-side of the aforementioned ridge late tonight through Sunday. Low level moisture advects into the region along with this feature, resulting in a saturating DGZ. Upward vertical motion associated with the wave and steepening 0-1km lapse rates (8-9C/km per the 21.09z RAP) in response to ongoing cold air advection should support some snow flurry to light snow shower development overnight and through much of the day Sunday, although accumulations are not expected. Confidence in flurries/snow showers is highest east of the Mississippi River where DGZ saturation is deepest, but recent high- resolution guidance has a weak signal for flurries across much of the area. Also can't rule out some breezy winds during the day and within any flurries/snow showers as nearly unidirectional northwest winds of 20-35kts atop the boundary layer should be able to efficiently transfer to the surface, resulting in gusts of 20-30mph, highest west of the Mississippi River.

Tuesday - Thursday: Snow Potential Returns

The longwave ridging begins to break down and flatten by mid- week, allowing for a couple of 700-500hPa shortwave troughs to traverse the region. The first wave moves through Tuesday, currently expected to take a northerly track across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, a solution favored by nearly 80% of the 21.00z LREF membership. This is supported by the 21.13z NBM, which highlights a 20-70% chance for measurable precipitation across our area, increasing from southwest to northeast. If this solution verifies, the bulk of any precipitation (in the form of snow based upon sub-freezing thermal profiles) is expected north of our area, but the potential for 1 inch of snow sits around 30-60% in both the 21.13z NBM and 21.00z LREF for those along and north of I-94 and 10-30% for 3 inches, which is a slight increase as compared to 24 hours ago. If future runs trend the wave towards the outlier solution (20%), a more southerly track to the system would be expected and could bring an inch of snow further south towards I-90.

Predictability is far lower with the second wave, currently expected to move through during the Wednesday night - Thursday timeframe. It's challenging to say much at this point outside of there being the potential for additional snowfall during this period as ensemble spread in amounts and timing/location are quite high. However, current current trends in both physics- based ensembles (GEFS/EPS) and their AI counterparts (AIGEFS/AIFS) are towards a more southerly track to the second wave as compared to the first. While overall predictability is low, current consensus suggests a stripe of snowfall is possible (10-30%) somewhere across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The ultimate track this system takes will be largely dependent on the evolution of the first wave and should begin to become clearer over the next few days.

Mid - Late Week: Near to Above Normal Temperatures Favored

Warmer air advects into the Upper Midwest mid to late week as the aforementioned waves propagate through. Quite a bit of uncertainty related to what temperatures will ultimately be owing to variations in how the mid-week systems play out, but the overall trend in both the 21.00z LREF and 21.13z NBM are towards near to above normal temperatures to end the new week. The 21.13z NBM even depicts a 30-50% probability to exceed 50 degrees for those without a snowpack south of I-90 on Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions currently present across much of the area with some MVFR CIGs lingering across northern and central Wisconsin. MVFR stratus is expected to return again overnight, impacting both terminals. While some scattering to VFR will be possible for KLSE for a few hours tomorrow morning, KRST is likely to stay MVFR for much of the day. Widespread VFR conditions likely won't return until late tomorrow afternoon/evening. Winds will continue out of the northwest between 10-20 kts with gusts between 20-30 kts picking up into the overnight hours.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.