textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures today highs in the single digits today. Wind chills of 15 to 35 below this morning will improve to 5 to 15 below for the afternoon through the early overnight.

- Near to above normal temperatures with drier conditions for early next week with high temperatures rebounding into the mid 30s.

- Next widespread precipitation chance (50 to 75%) is Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a lot of uncertainties with this system as precipitation type could be a wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Today: Cold Temperatures

As surface high pressure continues over the region today, temperatures will stay below zero through much of the morning and only get into the single digits for highs. Northwest winds shift to southwest winds this afternoon ahead of a ridge that builds into the area for early this week. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below stay through mid morning, before improving to 5 to 15 below for the afternoon. These wind chills linger through the early overnight period. The wind chills this morning will be the coldest we have felt all season so far so make sure to bundle up when venturing outside this morning!

Monday-Wednesday: Warmer and Drier

Ridging builds into the area for early this week allowing for drier conditions. Southwest flow warms up temperatures into the mid and upper 20s for Monday, mid to upper 30s for Tuesday, and mid 30s for Wednesday. There is also a low chance (15 to 30% based on most recent NBM) of hitting 40 degrees on Tuesday. Compared to previous forecasts, Wednesday was the better day to potentially hit 40 degrees somewhere in the CWA, however a cold front moves through on Tuesday night and keeps winds northwest for a longer time into Wednesday before warm air advection resumes in the afternoon. On that note, the shortwave trough that will bring the cold front down, should stay to our north Tuesday night. There a couple members of both the EPS and GEFS that bring measurable snowfall to Taylor County but otherwise it is a dry forecast. This will be a nice break from the active pattern we have been in for the last couple of weeks.

Wednesday night-Thursday: Rain/Snow?

Another shortwave moves onshore in the Pac NW on Wednesday morning. This will eventually shift into the Upper Midwest Wednesday night into Thursday. Based on previous model and ensemble runs, this shortwave and associated low pressure system has shifted further south from the 18Z runs and more ensemble members from both GEFS and EPS hint at this low potentially being further south than the ensemble mean. When looking at cross sections and BUFKIT soundings (GFS), these show a brief window where freezing rain could occur, however there is much uncertainty and multiple things would need to come together in order for freezing rain to occur. Models suggest a warm nose, however the surface temperature is either at or slightly above freezing indicating that this p-type should remain rain and not freeze on surface contact. Overall this system will bring rain to the area and potentially a brief period of freezing rain. Following this, heading into Thursday mid morning, snow is likely to fall as cold air advection moves in behind the cold front allowing for a brief period of light snow. Stay tuned for further updates on this weather system as the forecast will likely change in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with increasing middle and upper-level clouds this evening and overnight. Winds will increase into the evening and overnight to around 12-18 kts with gusts of around 25-30 kts west of the Mississippi River. With an increasing low-level wind field of 45 to 55 kts in RAP/HRRR/NAM soundings at around 2kft, have opted to include some LLWS mention after 05z Monday at KLSE due to lower magnitude gusts tonight. With KRST likely gusting higher, have not included any LLWS mention. Winds will diminish some during the morning hours on Monday to around 8-12 kts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.