textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures on Monday give way to near-record high temperatures on Wednesday with highs reaching into the 70s for much of the local area. Warmer than normal temperatures will likely persist through the weekend.

- Rain chances (20-50%) Monday afternoon through Monday night for southeast MN and north-central WI. Generally light rainfall amounts under 1/10" are expected.

- Additional rain potential (40-70% chance) Wednesday evening and overnight as well as this weekend (30-60% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Monday - Tuesday: Cooler Monday with Some Rain Chances

Monday will feature the coolest temperatures over the next week in light of a cold front that had passed through the region with northeasterly to easterly surface flow and zonal flow aloft. Consequently, high temperatures will fall into the 50s to lower 60s across the region. It is important to note though that the average high at La Crosse, WI at this point in the year is in the mid-50s so we will still be near to slightly above normal on Monday. However, as we head into Tuesday, shortwave upper-level ridging and southerly surface return flow will instigate a warmer trend for the week with highs returning above normal with median high temperatures in the NBM in the middle to upper 60s.

As far as precipitation chances are concerned, an approaching shortwave impulse moving through the Great Plains will push northwest of the local area bringing some resulting rain chances, primarily north of I-90 in north-central WI and southeast MN. Currently, the latest HREF has fairly respectable probabilities (60- 90%) for measurable precipitation across southeast MN and into north- central WI. However, given that the bulk of the more robust forcing will generally remain to the northwest, more substantial rainfall amounts over 0.1" are less likely (20-50%), so not expecting any impacts from this rainfall.

Wednesday - Friday: Unseasonably Warm with Additional Rain Potential

As we head into the latter half of the work week, continued robust southerly flow into Wednesday will allow for increasing probabilities (50-90% in the NBM) for highs to top 70 degrees for much of the local area. As a result, could see some near record high temperatures at La Crosse, WI and Rochester, MN with their record highs being 75 and 73 degrees respectively for October 28th. While Wednesday currently appears to be the warmest day reflected in guidance, this unseasonably warm trend likely persists through Friday with continued zonal to southwesterly synoptic flow in place.

On the heels of the first shortwave trough on Monday/Tuesday, a secondary shortwave pulse tracks northwest of the local area with an attending surface front passing through the region Wednesday evening and overnight. Consequently, precipitation chances increase (70-90%) in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian) during this timeframe. With some elevated instability present in NAM/GFS soundings Wednesday evening and overnight, would expect some thunderstorm potential which may locally allow for some healthier rainfall amounts. This is reflected in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) which has some probabilities (10-40%) for rainfall amounts over 0.25". Additional precipitation potential is present for Friday as suggested in the NBM, however confidence is somewhat lower at this juncture due to some uncertainties on position and timing of various synoptic features such as a shortwave impulse pushing towards the region in this timeframe and where surface high pressure will be located which deterministic guidance disagrees on.

Saturday - Sunday: Staying Warmer than Normal with Rain Chances

This weekend will continue to feature warmer than normal temperatures with upper-level ridging and southerly surface flow in place for Saturday. As mentioned previously, the shortwave impulse late week and into the weekend has some lingering uncertainty on position/timing. That being said, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has very high probabilities (80-90%) for measurable precipitation areawide on Saturday. So while the finer details are low predictability at this point, thinking that some rainfall seems feasible for Halloween, really just a question on timing and exact amounts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. CIGS stay mostly between 4000 and 7000ft. Northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph gradually shifts to the northeast during the overnight and remains out of the northeast through the morning at 10 to 15 mph. There is a 20 to 40% chance for light rain Monday morning in southeast Minnesota and then Monday afternoon for areas north of I-94.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.