textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and warmer today with highs in the middle to upper 70s.

- Minimal precipitation chances throughout much of the week and into the weekend.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures on Wednesday through Friday with a slight warm up into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Today - Friday: Warmer & Breezy Today, Staying Dry

Northwesterly synoptic flow continues to dominate the synoptic flow pattern over the next few days with shortwave ridging moving through the region for the daytime hours. As a result, flow turns to southerly out ahead of a surface front that will push through the region later into the day. Consequently, a tightening surface pressure gradient and daytime diurnal mixing will aid in increasing surface winds to around 15-20 mph with gusts reaching to around 30 mph, mainly west of the Mississippi River. With this southerly push bringing 850mb warm air advection into the region, temperatures respond accordingly with the inter- quartile range of the NBM keeping highs in the lower to upper 70s across much of the area with some potential for areas near I-35 to approach 80 degrees in the higher percentiles. Eventually a surface front pushes through the region later into the evening, resulting in surface winds to shift to northwesterly and thus bring in cooler temperatures. Overall, given the lack of robust convergence along this front, thinking any precipitation is unlikely which is further suggested in the CAMs.

As we head later into the work week, northwesterly flow persists with minimal modification to the airmass overhead. Consequently, temperatures remain relatively steady-state behind the frontal passage on Tuesday evening with highs generally in the middle 60s to lower 70s. With minimal synoptic forcing present across much of guidance in this northwesterly flow regime, thinking precipitation chances will be kept to a minimum which is supported in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) which has minimal (under 20% chance) measurable precipitation chances through Friday.

This Weekend: Slight Warm Up

By the time the weekend rolls around, northwesterly flow gives way to zonal flow aloft as an upper-level ridge moves into the region. Consequently, this will allow for southerly flow to push into the region with increasing warm air advection. As a result, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) generally agrees on pushing high temperatures further above normal into the weekend with the inter-quartile spread for high temperatures on Sunday ranges from the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. With upper-level ridging overhead during this timeframe, thinking that precipitation chances are unlikely through Sunday. However, there is some indication for the ridge to break down by Sunday night and into early next week and allow for some stronger synoptic forcing to work its way into the region. This could lead to an increase in precipitation chances very late into the weekend into early next week. However, predictability remains fairly low at this stage as to when this ridge breaks down so thinking the modest (20-40%) precipitation chances in the NBM are reasonable.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at the terminals. Southerly winds will continue to increase through the morning hours with gusts to between 25-30 kts possible at the terminals starting by mid-morning. Instances of LLWS will be possible at both KRST and KLSE through mid-morning but are expected to remain below the 30 kt threshold given the increasing surface winds at both sites. Winds will gradually decrease into the late afternoon/evening hours, veering more to the west ahead of an approaching weak cold front that should move through the area late tonight and into the early morning hours tomorrow.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.