textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures for Friday and this weekend with highs in the upper 30s to 40s. Morning lows will likely fall into the 20s for most locations.

- Warming trend into next week with highs returning into the 50s across the area. There is a low chance (10-40%) for highs to reach 60 degrees by mid-week.

- Aside from any isolated flurries/sprinkles (10% chance) today and tonight, mostly dry conditions are expected into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Rest of Today - Friday: Cooler, Sprinkles/Flurries Possible

Cooler temperatures are on tap through Friday as northerly synoptic flow behind the trough situated over the Great Lakes maintains a cooler airmass over the region. Currently, watching a shortwave perturbation across Western Ontario that will try to sneak down into the region later this evening. As this occurs, some low-level instability with steeper low-level lapse rates in the presence of this forcing may be sufficient for some flurries to develop late this afternoon and into the evening. However, the saturated layer in RAP soundings is fairly shallow so this makes confidence low (10% chance) that any precipitation with this wave would manifest. Otherwise, temperatures will remain cool into Friday with respectable confidence in the NBM (40-90% chance) for highs to remain in the 30s for southeast MN and north-central WI and temperatures only rising into the lower 40s elsewhere.

This Weekend: Dry, Slight Warming Trend

As we head into the weekend, upper-level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region allow for some very weak southerly return flow. Consequently, expecting temperatures to slowly begin a warming trend with highs returning into the 40s for much of the area over the weekend. Overall given the high pressure in place over the weekend, it is unsurprising that the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has a 0% chance for any measurable precipitation.

Next Week: Mild, Dry to Start the Week with Precipitation Chances Returning Late Week

Looking ahead to next week, upper-level ridging and surface high pressure remains predominately just south to southeast of the region. This will aid in maintaining southerly flow through the early part of next week into the local area and thus continue the warming trend through the middle of next week. As a result, the NBM has fairly high probabilities (50-90%) for highs to reach above 50 degrees as soon as Tuesday with even some low-end probabilities (10-40%) for highs to hit 60 degrees on Wednesday through next Friday. In addition to the warmer temperatures, deterministic and ensemble guidance hint at and upper-level trough beginning to pivot into the Great Plains by Thursday. As a result, expecting precipitation chances to increase beginning on Thursday with the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) having modest probabilities (50-70% chance) for measurable precipitation for Thursday and into Friday. Overall given the much above normal temperatures anticipated by ensemble guidance, would expect this to be an only rain situation for our local area. As we head past next week, the ensemble mean in the GEFS/EC ensemble would suggest that some cooler temperatures heading into the week of Thanksgiving in the wake of the aforementioned upper-level trough, however confidence in any details remains low at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR to high-end MVFR conditions currently present across the region early this evening. These MVFR CIGs across Southeast Minnesota and Northeast Iowa are expected to lift over the next couple hours with VFR conditions prevailing for the rest of the forecast period. Winds will remain out of the north between 5-12 kts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.