textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures persist through Tuesday with highs generally in the 50s south of I-94.

- Precipitation moves into the region Tuesday night with mostly rain south I-94. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible in northeast IA and southwest WI. There is some small chances (~10% chance) for freezing rain north of I-94 before a switchover to light snow on Wednesday.

- Additional rain/snow chances (30-60%) Thursday evening through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Rest of Today - Tuesday: Unseasonably Mild Conditions Persist

Weak 500mb ridging and zonal flow will be the name of the game for the next couple of days which will enable southwesterly to westerly surface flow to start the upcoming week and perpetuate these ongoing mild temperatures for a couple more days. This ridging will allow for 850mb temperatures to maintain in the 5-10C. As a result, NBM inter-quartile spread for Monday responds accordingly with high temperatures ranging anywhere from the middle 40s to the lower 60s, with the 60s being most favored in southwest Wisconsin. The grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has medium probabilities (~40% chance) for highs to top 55 degrees at La Crosse with even some low-end probabilities (~15% chance) to hit 60 on Monday. Increasing cloud cover with some moisture/warm advection may increase our cloud cover some for Monday so have tempered down highs slightly from previous forecast. Regardless, it will be a great day to get outdoors as we will be running around 20 degrees above normal as our typical highs run in the upper 20s to lower 30s for much of the area this time of year.

Tuesday Night - Friday: Trending Cooler and More Unsettled

As we head into Tuesday night, a decent axis of 850mb moisture transport pushes into the area ahead of a 500mb shortwave trough that is pivoting through the Northern Plains during the overnight hours. As this occurs, an area of convergence along this moisture axis out ahead of the trough will interact with this 850mb moisture transport axis allowing for an northwest to southeast oriented area of precipitation to develop during the late evening on overnight hours. Quite the moisture-rich airmass for this time of year as much of ensemble guidance has dewpoints surging well into the 40s for areas near and south of I-90 which even notes some MLCAPE (around 100 J/kg) in the 15.12z GFS and ensemble mean of the GEFS, suggesting some rumbles of thunder are possible. While severe potential looks very low at this point given the very weak instability, will need to see if this can overachieve on rainfall amounts where thunderstorms can occur as the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has high probabilities (60-90%) for precipitable waters to exceed 0.75". However, looks like this system should be fairly progressive which will limit totals.

In north-central WI, potential for alternative p-types to rain remains as surface temperatures will attempt to hover near freezing with a warm nose aloft with this moisture plume. As a result, cannot rule out a period of freezing rain as the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has some low probabilities (10-30%) for measurable ice accumulations into Wednesday. Otherwise, as cold advection works into the region behind this system, a brief changeover to snow may occurs prior to precipitation exiting however confidence for any impactful accumulations is low into Wednesday evening. In addition to the precipitation potential, winds behind this system will increase and could be fairly breezy for Wednesday afternoon with fairly decent probabilities (50-70%) for gusts over 30 mph in the EC ensemble as mixing in this cold advective regime with be capable of allowing for some momentum transfer of 30-35 kt gusts to the surface.

A brief lull in precipitation seems probable for the morning and into portions of the afternoon on Thursday. However, on the heels of this first trough, a secondary shortwave trough will eject towards the region from the southwest with an accompanying surface low later on Thursday. Still a large range of outcomes with this system as ensemble and deterministic guidance vary on both location and intensity of this system during the later Thursday and into Friday period. When looking at the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian) cluster analysis, the mean 500mb pattern within each cluster is fairly messy with corresponding surface low positions exhibiting wide variance in their position in the Midwest. The two highest membership clusters have similar surface low tracks with the largest cluster (roughly 40% of members) favoring a weaker surface low as opposed to the secondary cluster (25% of members) which favors a much stronger surface low positioned in northern IL on Thursday night. In the stronger surface low scenario, ensemble guidance has a high probability (60-80%) for amounts in excess of an inch with much lower probabilities (20-40%) for similar amounts in the weaker surface low scenario. In any case, the grand ensemble has high probabilities (60-80%) for at least some measurable snow late this week.

As far as temperatures are concerned this week, overnight lows Tuesday night will likely get close to record warm lows as the increased moisture in the region will make it more challenging for temperatures to fall significantly with lows likely remaining in the 40s south of I-94. However, as weak cold advection works into the region during the day on Wednesday, expecting a cooling trend to begin for the second half of the work week with the inter- quartile range for highs by Friday ranging from the upper 20s to around 40.

Upcoming Weekend: Seasonable to Slightly Below Normal Temperatures

By the time the weekend rolls around, northwesterly flow will be established across the local area allowing for additional cold advection to work into the region in the wake of the aforementioned surface feature. Consequently, the NBM inter-quartile spread ranges anywhere from the middle 20s and into the 30s for highs by Saturday. So will likely see temperatures more seasonable for this time of year by the upcoming weekend as opposed to earlier in the week where temperatures will be more comparable to late March and early April.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period with the risk for any MVFR restrictions due to fog less than 10% for the rest of the night. Winds increase from the south from 08-13Z at 10-15G15-25kts at higher elevations, but lower elevations should decouple and result in a 2-4 hour period of LLWS (with the threat area moving from west to east in that time span). Winds lessen around sunrise and back to the west/north through the day at 5-10kts and to the east after sunset.

CLIMATE

Issued at 138 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Here are some of the record high and warm low temperatures for La Crosse and Rochester from February 16 through February 16.

Record or near record highs Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 59 (1931) / 54 La Crosse, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 56

Record or near record warm lows Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

Warm Low Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 35 (1931) / 38 La Crosse, WI 40 (1981) / 34

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.