textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions prevail through the middle of next week.

- Temperatures slowly warm through the weekend and early next week, reaching the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday.

- A more active weather pattern arrives for the end of next week with the potential for heavier rain, perhaps some snow by the end of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

This Afternoon - Middle of Next Week: Dry and Warming

An Omega Block remains the dominant weather feature across the north central CONUS from today into the middle of next week. The ridge temporarily weakens and rebuilds on Sunday, but the weak wave that ripples through the flow looks to stay well to the north and not impact the region. The 1028-mb surface high pressure reflection that currently stretches from Hudson Bay to the lower Missouri River Valley will likewise be very slow to drift southeastward over the ensuing days, reaching the Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio River Valley by Monday.

Return SSW flow sets in across the region for Sunday and remains in place through at least the middle of next week. Despite the multiple days of southerly flow, we will be slow to warm with Gulf air remaining relegated to the coast. Look for highs to only rise 10-15 degrees between today and Wednesday given this setup. It is not until the Omega Block breaks down Tuesday and Wednesday and lee cyclogenesis takes place along the Front Range that we see an appreciable degree of higher theta-e air stream northward.

End of Next Week: Rain Returns, Cooling Off

The breakdown of the Omega Block for the middle to end of next week ushers in substantial pattern change featuring a series of stronger shortwaves ejecting from a longwave trough that replaces our current ridge over the Southwestern US. The first such wave is progged to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday followed by a second system for next weekend or possibly early the week of Thanksgiving.

As one should expect at this range, there are major synoptic differences in the various traditional and AI ensembles that yield little for clues with the spatio-temporal details on the local impacts. The main message at this stage is that the pattern will be turning more active towards the end of next week. The main impacts look to come in the form of heavier rainfall with the mean LREF ensemble guidance already depicting a 20-40% chance of over 1 inch of rainfall. In addition, colder air spills southward next weekend early into the week of Thanksgiving with 20-30% of the longer range model guidance also have measurable snow for this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

A band of high MVFR to low VFR ceilings currently east of a RGK to CCY line gradually decays over the next 12 hours with VFR conditions forecast thereafter. North winds of 5-10 kts this afternoon gradually become light and variable overnight into Saturday. Minimal aviation impacts are forecast through the weekend as high pressure moves through.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.