textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and freezing rain potential locally in far northern peripheral counties of central Wisconsin (Taylor County) tonight. Overall confidence remains low (30-40%).

- Persistent near to slightly above normal temperatures in the 30s through the end of the work week.

- Subsequent precipitation impacts from a rain/snow mix Thursday may affect the morning and evening commutes. Current confidence mostly west of the Mississippi River Valley locally in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Light Snow & Wintry Mix Tonight Locally In Central Wisconsin:

An area of lower pressure shifting east through southern Ontario, Canada will slide southeast across the northern Great Lakes tonight. The accompanying upstream colder low level air mass advects across the Upper Mississippi River Valley tonight through Tuesday. Associated initial impacts will be precipitation chances in northern peripheral counties of central Wisconsin (Taylor County). While confidence is highest for snow (60-80%) as main precipitation type, meager cyclogenesis along the triple point concurrent with lobes of entrained dry air result in freezing rain probabilities (20%) in spots. Given overall lower (30-40%) confidence for precipitation occurrence, in a narrow slice of the local forecast area, overall impacts expected to be minimal.

Near to Slightly Above Normal Temps This Week:

Subsequent building heights and pressure over the central CONUS through midweek struggles to shunt northwest flow completely out of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Resultant LREF/HREF confidence for low level temperatures remain near normal for the northeastern half of the forecast area to slightly above normal when compared to SPC RAOB climatology. LREF confidence in exit behavior of downstream trough to local interaction with central CONUS higher pressure decreases later in the week, causing discrepancies for local temperatures through the weekend.

Thursday Snowfall Chances:

Subsequent precipitation chances impact the local forecast area primarily west of the Mississippi River Valley Thursday as a weak open wave progresses along northwest flow towards the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The GEFS (09.12Z) and EPS (09.12Z) both strengthened mid level vorticity advection in most recent runs, resulting in high probabilities (70-90%) for 0.01" of QPF in 24 hours over the western half of the forecast area. Besides intramodel trend differences, with an increase (decrease) in the EPS (GEFS), location seems to be the main intermodel difference. While the EPS keeps highest probabilities in Iowa, the more north GEFS pushed farther north into southeast Minnesota and the Mississippi River Valley in most recent run (09.12Z). Probabilities for 1" of 10:1 SLR snowfall in 24 hours is 20-50% in the GEFS, and <20% in the EPS; both lower than expected due to intramodel disagreement in exact location of more narrow area of higher amount potential. While it is too early to determine exact precipitation type, ensemble plume sounds suggest a mix of rain and snow as main precipitation types. Current forecast confidence suggests impacts to both the morning and evening commutes Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions with an abundance of clouds in the 10-20 kft layer are present to begin the TAF period. Far to the northwest, MVFR deck between 1500-2500 feet is spreading southeast underneath per surface obs and occasional breaks in the upper level clouds. This stratus will be the main concern for RST/LSE over the next 24 hours with a period of MVFR expected at both tomorrow, although confidence that this will reach our forecast area (70%) is lower than would be ideal. This stratus may lead to light snow and/or FZDZ along and north of a EAU-CWA line between 00z and 09z Tuesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.