textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- This will likely be the 5th consecutive Labor Day weekend to be dry for La Crosse and Rochester. Prior to this stretch, the longest stretch was 3 consecutive holiday weekends (2007-09). Labor Day holiday weekends statistics date back to 1971.

- Heavy rain and severe weather possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Tonight

With southeast winds ushering in drier air into the region and a well-mixed boundary layer underneath the nocturnal inversion, not expecting widespread fog tonight. If there is any, it would be found in the Wisconsin River, lower Kickapoo river, and Mississippi river tributaries.

Low temperatures will range from the mid-50s to lower 60 in western Wisconsin, and in the lower and mid-60s in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

Labor Day

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered over Michigan's Thumb area will keep much of the area dry on Labor Day. If there is any rain (up to 20 percent), it would be west of Highway 52 in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

High temperatures will range from the mid-70s to lower 80s. The warmest temperatures will be found in the river valleys.

Late Monday night into Wednesday morning

A strong, shortwave trough will move slowly east from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Southerly winds will pool the low-level moisture along the cold front as its moves slowly southeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Precipitable water values will range from 2 to to 2.5 inches and warm cloud depths will range from 4 to 4.5 km. This will result in some heavy rain. The 48-hour NBM-CONUS has a 40-50 percent chance of 1 inch or greater and a 5 to 20 percent chance of 2 inches or more.

Surface-based CAPES will range from 250 to 1250 J/kg along and ahead of this front. The 0-3 km shear will range from 30 to 40 knots. This could result in some strong to severe storms. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

High temperatures will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s on Tuesday and from the mid-70s to lower 80s on Wednesday. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some MVFR CIGS are possible (20 to 40%) through the early evening mainly for areas west of the Mississippi River. Otherwise there is also a chance (30 to 40%) for fog to form east of the Mississippi River early Monday morning and dissipating by mid morning. Most of the precipitation chances should stay west of I-35, however there remains a 10% chance of showers for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa Monday morning. Light and variable winds tonight become southeast winds by mid morning with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph. Some locations in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa could gust up to 25 mph during the afternoon and early evening.

CLIMATE

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

This looks to be another dry Labor Day weekend for La Crosse and Rochester. This could potentially be the 5th consecutive (dating back to 2022) dry Labor Day weekend for both sites. This is the longest stretch. Prior to the current one, the longest stretch was 3 years from 2007 through 2009.

For Rochester, this holiday weekend could potentially tie 2018 for the 3rd warmest average low temperature (65.7F) and 2012 for the 6th warmest average temperature (72.2F).

Labor Day holiday weekends statistics date back to 1971. This was when the Uniform Monday Holiday Act began.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.