textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- One final snow band moving through this afternoon and early evening (central WI) with up to an additional 1/2" expected. Impacts should be minor.

- Weaker weather systems continue to move through northwest flow with more limited predictability. Overall impacts from weather look minimal through 7 days.

- Temperatures will continue to fluctuate around the seasonal normals for early February /Highs 20s, Lows single digits/ with a slow creep upward late in the week. Warming on Thursday will likely bring high temperatures above freezing for the first time in nearly 3 weeks!

UPDATE

Issued at 425 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Widespread reports of freezing drizzle are coming in from southeast Minnesota over the last hour. MNDOT cameras facing south are also iced up. This all is happening as the deeper moisture with the snow band exits east.

Have issued a Special Weather Statement to handle this FZDZ and to raise awareness of added slickness on untreated roads. This doesnt seem to warrant an Advisory at this time with snow providing a bit of a landing spot for the drizzle (not bare pavement) and roads seeing some treatment earlier from the snow. Secondary, untreated roads will be slick however and could glaze.

It is expected this will persist for a few hours after the snow ends and near the warm front that is incoming. Per HRRR soundings, there will be a northern extent to the FZDZ roughly MSP-DLL in WI as the saturated layer should reach a higher likelihood of glaciation (-10 to -11C) to snow (colder air northwestward).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Snow Ending Later This Afternoon / Early Evening

Radar is showing one final band of snow to move through, currently positioned over eastern MN and eastern IA. This is associated with the second shortwave trough/curl centered near MSP at 19Z, with warm advection continuing in the low-levels and lift ahead of this wave. Visibilities are lowering to around 2 miles so with the progressive nature to it, a few tenth of accumulation of snow are expected. The roads recovered quickly once the first round of snow ended this morning, so would think impacts will be minor, a few slick spots.

Weaker Weather Systems Moving Through This Week - Little Impact

Large scale northwest flow continues over the Upper Midwest but some progression is seen in the pattern this week allowing heights to rise and ridging to build in. This will bring a gradual warm up through the week with highs in the 30s by Thursday. This trend looks to continue into next weekend.

Weak systems in northwest flow will cause challenges to predictability this week but overall what should be little impactful weather. Transient systems bring period of clouds and different saturation which occasionally toys with supercooled liquid saturated layer with little lift (freezing drizzle?). Seems the predictability horizon will be quite short for this pattern.

One system shifts through Iowa on Monday night providing a band of very light snow somewhere around Iowa. The 01.06Z ECMWF ensemble has increased measurable precipitation chances to 60-80% (24 hour) on a NW->SE swath just southwest of the forecast area (MCW to north of DVN). However, individual member placement of the band, which appears frontogenetical, varies from near La Crosse to Des Moines. So, weak forcing and various placements in the northwest flow make this a challenge but introduced some snow chances, but kept them low (20%). This looks like a light snow of a few tenths 03-15Z Tuesday but where is the question as of right now.

Stronger warm advection kicks in Thursday and warms highs into the 30s for much of the area. At the same time, stronger forcing with a shortwave trough in northwest flow shifts mainly through WI/Great Lakes. The warm air moving in looks to be isothermal in the low-levels in the ensemble sounding profiles reviewed (no large warm nose aloft) and suggests RA/SN. The 01.00Z ECMWF ensemble ptype nomograms also indicate very low chances (<10%) of mixed precipitation in this system, and mainly a RA/SN type. NBM has resolved this well for the forecast. Precipitation chances are highest (40% in central WI) and amounts look very light again (<0.10").

Weekend Outlook and Temperatures

Predictability takes a hit on the weekend for temperature forecasting with differences in the magnitude of the progressive ridge building. Large interquartile /25-75th percentile/ ranges of over 12F exist...with min/max values from the teens to low 40s for highs. Thursdays same interquartile difference if only 4F, so difference starting Friday and mainly the GEFS deeper and colder with the eastern North American trough...which the local area is influenced by. For now, minor to no precipitation chances are in the forecast and stuck with the national blended guidance with near normal, or slightly above, temperatures. but, there is big boom temperature potential should the ridge build in stronger (40s for highs).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Light snow has exited southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and continues for western Wisconsin for the next few hours. Behind this snow, freezing drizzle will occur for at least 2 to 3 hours. The freezing drizzle is lingering a little longer in southeast Minnesota so we shall see if this trend continues and if it does, this would mean a longer period of freezing drizzle for southwest Wisconsin this evening. All precipitation is expected to end by midnight. MVFR to IFR CIGS and visibilities remain in areas where there is snow or freezing drizzle. MVFR CIGs will linger through the overnight and gradually dissipate by mid to late morning Monday. Southwest winds continue to transition to northwest winds as a cold front moves through the region with all locations having northwest winds by midnight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.