textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances (20-40%) for Wednesday and into Thursday morning. A few snowflakes may mix in near and north of I-90 in Wisconsin early Thursday morning.

- Cooler conditions move in for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

- Warming trend this weekend and into early next week with highs in the 40s and 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Wednesday - Friday: Cooling Down with Shower Chances Wednesday

Northwesterly synoptic flow in the presence of an incoming progressive shortwave trough will be the name of the game for the remainder of the week. Consequently, as this disturbance treks through the region, expecting some increase for shower chances during the day on Wednesday. As we head into Wednesday morning, a weak surface low develops at the exit region of this aforementioned shortwave trough across portions of central IA. As this occurs, weak isentropic upglide on the eastern periphery of this low will allow for a brief and weak axis of 700-800mb frontogenesis across portions of north-central WI on Wednesday morning. As a result, the recent NBM has respectable probabilities (20-50%) for measurable precipitation, however given the weak forcing, probabilities for over 0.1" during this timeframe remain low (under 20%). By the time Wednesday evening and overnight roll around, cold air advection within the northwesterly/northerly synoptic flow regime will allow for cooling mid-levels, both steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing low-level instability during this timeframe. Consequently, some additional showers cannot be ruled out late Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning as shown in the 10.12z HRRR. While minimal precipitation amounts would be expected with these, a few snowflakes could mix in early on Thursday morning as surface temperatures cool for areas north of I-90 in western Wisconsin. However, no snow accumulations are expected with any light snow showers that occur.

As far as temperatures are concerned, relatively mild high temperatures on Wednesday will give way to much cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday as cold air advection in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave trough pushes into the region. Consequently, highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s on Wednesday will give way to high temperatures falling into the upper 30s and lower 40s for Thursday and Friday. Given that 850mb temperatures in deterministic guidance range in the -7C to -10C range for Friday, thinking that temperatures may be slightly cooler with the NBM bias correction keeping temperatures warmer than deterministic guidance. As a result, opted to trend temperatures slightly cooler than the NBM for Friday with much of the area staying in the 30s for highs.

This Weekend - Early Next Week: Dry and Gradually Warming

By the time we reach the weekend, upper-level ridging will attempt to push into the local area, which in turn will shift surface flow to southeasterly and bring gradually milder temperatures over the course of the weekend and into early next week into the region. As a result, highs in the 40s over the weekend will likely yield to widespread highs in the 50s by Tuesday. As far as precipitation chances are concerned, persistent ridging and surface high pressure across the region this weekend and into early next week should keep any precipitation chances to a minimum. As a result, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) generally has very low (under 25% chance) probabilities for measurable rainfall this weekend through Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are likely to continue over the next 24 hours. Light rain showers may move over the sites, from roughly 09z-16z, but the rain should be very light and not cause any flight restrictions. The wind will be light and variable overnight before increasing up to 10-15 kts out of the north during the later half of this TAF cycle. Mid level cloud cover will also increase but cloud bases should stay above MVFR conditions.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.