textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Small rain chances (20-40 percent) on Wednesday night.

- Better rain chance (60-90 percent) from Thursday night into Friday. Rain totals generally 1 to 2 inches with up to 15 percent probability for greater than 2 inches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Tonight through Wednesday

High pressure will provide dry weather through Wednesday. The HRRR indicates some light concentrations of smoke near the surface (probably too low to be noticed) and much greater smoke concentration around 6K feet. The latter will likely produce a milky appearance to the sky. Low temperatures will range from around 60 to the mid-60s tonight. High temperatures will be in the 80s.

Wednesday Night

A weak shortwave trough will move east through Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday night. The 0-1 km ML CAPES will be up 250 J/kg. This should be enough instability for some showers and storms to develop mainly north of Interstate 94. With the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear being generally less than 20 knots, organized severe weather is not anticipated. Rainfall totals will be generally less than a tenth of an inch. Low temperatures will be in the mid- and upper 60s.

Thursday

A ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather across the area on Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 80s.

Thursday into Saturday

A slow-moving low pressure system will slowly move east through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Many of the models have showers and storms across the area from Thursday night into Friday night. Some of these models suggest that this rain will continue into Saturday. Precipitable water values generally range from 1.5 to around 2 inches. Some of models are even up to 2.5 inches. Warm cloud layer depths are generally around 4 km. This will result in the potential for highly efficient rain producing showers and storms. Rainfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2-inch range. The LREF suggests that there is up to 15 percent chance of rain totals over 2 inches.

With 0-1 km mixed-layer CAPES only up to 500 J/kg and weak to moderate 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear (generally less than 30 knots), organized severe convection looks unlikely at this time.

High temperatures will be in the mid- and upper 70s on Friday and around 80 on Saturday. Low temperatures will be in the mid- and upper 60s on Thursday night and around 60 on Friday night.

Saturday night into Monday

High pressure will build across the area on Saturday night and persist into early next week. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid-80s on Sunday and in the lower and mid-80s on Monday. Low temperatures will range from the mid-50s to lower 60s on Saturday night and around 60 on Monday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR expected through the 29.00Z TAF period outside of the Wisconsin River Valley where LIFR FG is possible overnight into Wednesday morning. While Mississippi River Valley FG affecting KLSE TAF site can't be ruled out, current moisture (temperature/dewpoint depression) appears too dry.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.