textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous, near record breaking, warmth continues through Monday with breezy conditions into this evening.

- A cold front sweeps through on Monday night and brings with it a 40 to 70 percent chance for light rain showers, mainly north of I-90.

- Seasonal temperatures return after Monday with primarily dry conditions until at least late Wed/Thu. Possibly colder to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Rest of the Weekend: Anomalous Warmth Continues

Strong southerly Gulf flow coupled with a +2 to +3 standard deviation low to mid tropospheric airmass--ranking near the warmest of all time in the NAEFS and ENS climatology--sets the stage for near to record breaking warm temperatures this weekend. Highs today look to remain on track to reach the mid-80s with a few locales in the valleys possibly reaching into the upper 80s (a 10-20% chance). This will be very close to, if not exceeding, the record high temperatures set for today. The periphery of a 40 to 50 kt LLJ starts to shift into the region through the day, resulting in afternoon surface gusts of 30-35 kts, mainly west of the Mississippi River. The potential for 40- kt gusts in this same corridor drops off quickly to around 10-20%, but forecast soundings from the HRRR do hint at that possibility as we head later into the afternoon.

This aforementioned LLJ slides further east overnight, with forecast profiles showing winds of 40 to 50 kts only 1-2 kft above the surface. These winds will slow the stabilizing of the boundary layer and keep winds at higher elevations gusting to 20-30kts for much of the night. Lows in areas that remain more mixed look to only fall into the low to mid 60s--i.e. the average high for this time of year. Meanwhile, decoupled locales in sheltered or valley areas will see lows in the 50s.

Upper tropospheric ridging builds northward into the north central CONUS for Sunday, tempering winds but still keeping the warmth in place. The deterministic guidance has wavered a bit on whether high temperatures will eclipse the records for the day, but no matter how you slice the forecast, it will still be a very warm day.

Monday: Front Arrives - Light Shower Potential

Recent trends in the short and medium range guidance have been for a later arrival of a cold front that brings an end to our heat. The net result is that the heat looks to linger through the day on Monday with showers staying primarily north of I-90 later in the afternoon and overnight. Any rainfall looks to be light with the probability of seeing 0.10" situated around 20-40% and a <10% chance of seeing 0.25". The front and the accompanying showers are on track to depart by sunrise Tuesday.

Rest of the Week: Seasonal Temps, Rain Risk Returns Mid to Late Week

Confidence in the forecast wanes beyond Wednesday as the medium to longer range solutions diverge quickly on the evolution of an upstream Great Basin cutoff low. One scenario, led by the EPS membership, fails to absorb this low with the next northern stream wave passage, keeping the subsequent surge of polar air north of the region. The GEFS, meanwhile, has the reverse solution that opens the door for some of the coldest air of the season to arrive by the end of the week with highs potentially in the 30s and 40s (versus 50s and 60s in the EPS). The AI guidance for both the EC/GEFS are favoring the colder solutions, so these will bear watching for the potential for freeze warnings for next weekend. To be fair, the entire region has already passed its average first freeze (32 degrees) date, so any remaining vegetation is on borrowed time.

A scenario in which the cutoff low ejects from the Great Basin would promote a strong warm sector response/theta-e advection into the central CONUS late in the week, with rainfall probabilities for 0.50" already around 30-50% and outlier solutions (10-20%) exceeding 1" for 24 hour rainfall amounts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with S/SW winds through the TAF period. These winds gust to 25-35kts this afternoon, strongest west of the Mississippi River. Winds are slow to taper off overnight with sheltered and valley locations most likely to decouple and see LLWS, but exactly when that LLWS begins is somewhat less certain. Surface winds by Sunday morning will be around 5-15G20kts and remain as such through the day. The potential for any aviation restrictions is low (<10%) into early next week with limited impacts expected from light rain showers Monday night.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Record warm temperature information for today into Monday.

La Crosse, WI (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/10 86F (1928) / 86F - 10/11 86F (1928) / 84F 66F (1928) / 63F 10/12 87F (1995) / 85F 65F (1896) / 68F

Rochester, MN (Record/Forecast):

Date High Temperature Warm Low Temperature ----- --------------- --------------- 10/10 85F (1930) / 84F - 10/11 84F (2015) / 83F 65F (1928) / 64F 10/12 85F (1975) / 83F 61F (2008) / 66F

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.