textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy this morning with gusts of 35 to 40 mph, tapering off this afternoon. Another round of blustery conditions for the day on Thursday with similar wind gusts expected.

- Seasonal temperatures to round out the work week, following by much colder temperatures for Sunday and Monday as highs plummet into the 30s and lows fall into the teens--the coldest weather thus far of the season.

- Snowfall forecast for Saturday and Saturday remains fluid with trends favoring lower snow amounts and a more southerly track into Iowa.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Windy this Morning

A 1006-mb low pressure cell is passing through central Wisconsin as of 06Z this morning with the pressure gradient rapidly tightening between the backside of the low and a strengthening High Plains ridge. The surface cold front is about to cross I-35 and rapidly progresses eastward across the forecast area before sunrise. Northwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 kts have already been observed over western Minnesota and these winds arrive between 09-12Z and persist for around 6 hours at any given location before decreasing in the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes with the approaching high pressure ridge.

The strongest wind gusts are progged to occur west of the Mississippi River and spread into far southwestern Wisconsin later in the morning. The 05.00Z HREF shows that 30-kt gusts in this corridor should be expected with 35-kt probabilities still hovering around 70-80% and 40-kt probabilities only reaching 10-20%.

Windy on Thursday, Seasonal Weather to End the Week

A progressive zonal pattern shunts a high pressure ridge through the forecast area tonight with southerly flow setting in for Thursday morning. The tightening pressure gradient once again increases wind gusts to between 25-35 kts during the afternoon with RAP forecast profiles showing some potential for 40-kt gusts in a few locales as the boundary layer mixes out and taps into a 40-50-kt 850-mb jet. These winds may linger into the evening east of the Mississippi River depending on how quickly the boundary layer decouples in the warm air advection regime.

A few light rain showers may develop ahead of the cold front that sweeps through Thursday night in the leading 850-750-mb warm air advection/theta-e advection corridor. However, these showers will be battling ample low-level dry air given the narrow nature of the surface theta-e axis that lags behind these showers. The front should be clear of the forecast area between midnight and sunrise Friday morning.

Seasonal temperatures are on the docket for today and Thursday given the zonal flow pattern, with a secondary cold front racing southward during the day on Friday, sending temperatures downward and setting the stage for a potential weekend snow event. The exact timing of the front dictates high temperatures on Friday with roughly a 10 degree interquartile spread in the NBM high temperature forecast.

Snow Potential for Saturday and Saturday Night

Overall trends in the deterministic and ensemble forecasts for Saturday have been for a slightly more amplified 500-mb shortwave to dig down the Missouri River Valley and the lower tropospheric baroclinic zone to sag slightly farther south. These two factors are resulting in the QPF/snowfall forecast likewise shifting to the southern side of the forecast envelope that has been hit upon for the past few days. With the pattern amplification, the precipitation looks to arrive later in the morning, allowing for enough solar insolation to take place to limit snowfall amounts during the day.

The guidance is also struggling to resolve on the degree of frontogenesis that develops to the north of the surface baroclinic zone/low, which is likewise resulting in a reduction in forecast snow amounts from the ensemble members. Still cannot rule out a narrow corridor of snow amounts in excess of 3 inches (10-20 percent), but trends are pointing towards lighter snow amounts that will struggle to accumulate given the warmer air and ground temperatures. The snow departs early Saturday night.

Much Colder Sunday and Monday

Regardless of how our Saturday system shakes out, much colder air arrives in its wake for Saturday night with highs on Sunday only reaching the low to mid-30s. Some forecast soundings hint at flurries for Sunday afternoon, but the moisture profiles are shallow and will wait to see if this signal persists before introducing it to the forecast.

Lows fall into the teens both Monday and Tuesday mornings as a 1037-mb high pressure cell slides down from the Northern High Plains. Return flow sets in for Tuesday, but synoptic northwest flow will keep temperatures at or below seasonal norms for much of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Winds continue to shift to the northwest this morning. There remains a brief timeframe where sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible this morning. Winds gradually diminish through the afternoon. Light and variable winds then takeover for the overnight period. A brief period of MVFR CIGS may be possible during the morning hours as a deck of low level clouds around 2500 ft comes down from the north and moves through the region. After these clouds pass through, mostly clear skies are expected into the evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.