textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry mix coming to an end across Wisconsin this evening.

- Another round of freezing rain is expected from late Monday night into Tuesday morning for southeast Minnesota and along and north of Interstate 90 in Wisconsin.

- Still plenty of uncertainty on the track of a potentially strong low pressure area for late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Late Afternoon through This Evening for Areas North of Wisconsin 29

The precipitation will start out as snow north of Wisconsin 29 this afternoon. As the ice aloft decreases rapidly between 8 pm and 9 pm, the snow will transition to light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. As the low level lift and moisture wanes, this freezing precipitation will come to end. This should occur around midnight. Ice accumulations will be a light glaze.

Mid-Afternoon through This Evening for Areas along and north of Interstate 94

Soundings indicate that the precipitation in this area will start out as freezing rain between 3 pm and 4 pm. There will be a period around 6 pm where snow and ice pellets may mix in with the freezing rain. This is when the boundary layer will sufficiently cooled for sleet to occur. As temperatures warm in the boundary layer, it will then transition back to freezing rain. The precipitation will then end around 9 pm. Ice accumulations will be a light glaze to 0.05 inches.

Mid-Afternoon through This Evening for Areas between Interstates 90 and 94

Soundings continue to show that the precipitation in this area will be freezing rain. During the past hour, KRST has started to receive freezing rain. This freezing rain should develop across the remainder of southeast Minnesota during the next hour as the synoptic lift increases and the low level moisture increases. This freezing rain will then move out of the area by 6 PM. Meanwhile, in west-central Wisconsin, the freezing rain will develop between 3 and 5 pm and then move out of the area between 6 pm and 9 pm. Ice accumulations will be a light glaze to 0.05 inches.

Late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning

Another shortwave trough will move east through the area. There is still some uncertainty of how far south the precipitation will get. This is highly dependent upon the shortwave trough that moves through the area tonight. Soundings continue to show that the precipitation will be all liquid. With the boundary temperatures being below freezing, it will be in the form of freezing rain. It will move into the area during the overnight and then linger into early Tuesday morning. Currently thinking that there will be anywhere from a light glaze to 0.05 inches of ice. However, there are a few models that indicate that there could be a narrow band up to 0.20 inches of ice. The highest probabilities (up to 50%) will be in southeast Minnesota and along and north of Interstate 90 in western Wisconsin. Another Winter Weather Advisory will likely be needed.

Late Thursday Night into the Upcoming Weekend

The models continue to show that there will be the potential for a strong area of low pressure to affect areas somewhere between the Upper Mississippi River Valley and the eastern Great Lakes. This track is highly dependent on the eastern extent a broad 500 mb longwave trough. With there being a quite a large spread in the models on the track of the surface low, just stayed with the NBM for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1001 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions continue along and south of a RST to DLL line to start the TAF period, filling in from west to east with MVFR to IFR ceilings between 09-14Z. LIFR ceilings and fog are likely in northeast Iowa early in the morning. The evolution of the clouds is of lower confidence for the daytime hours, hinging on how fast clouds can spread over the area before sunrise. Light winds veer to the west after 06Z and then back to the southeast by the afternoon. Rain starts to spread over the area after 03Z, turning into freezing rain mainly north of an EAU to ISW line.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ017- 029. MN...None. IA...None.