textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a couple of storms continue to make their way through the forecast area through the evening. Another low chance (15 to 20%) for a couple of storms north of I-94 for Monday afternoon.

- After a dry midweek, increasing shower and storm chances arrive for the latter half of the week and into early next week.

- Highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s for today and Monday with warmer temperatures on the way for rest of the forecast period as highs get into the mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Today-Monday: Light Showers and Storms

As of early this afternoon, there are two areas of rain that we are watching. The first is an area of mostly showers, driven by weak moisture convergence, with some rumbles of thunder in northeast Iowa that is gradually trying to make its way into southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. The main question with this first wave is how far north will this rain make it. While this first wave is definitely overachieving compared to CAM guidance, there remains uncertainty on how far north it will get. The other area we are watching is a band of theta-e that will advect into our area this evening. The line of showers and storms associated with this is currently west of I-35. As this theta-e advects into our area, showers and some storms should reinvigorate during the evening providing a decent coverage of light to at times moderate rain. Heading into the later evening hours after sunset, the band is expected to gradually dissipate, however some CAMs have some light rain continuing over western Wisconsin through the early morning hours.

Much of Monday morning into the afternoon looks to be mainly dry. A shortwave moves through the Upper Midwest Monday afternoon, pairing up with a surface boundary that is left over from the early morning rain. Some of the more recent CAM runs have begun to produce a few showers and storms north of I-94 during the mid to late afternoon, with these dying off by the middle of the evening. With the rain and clouds around for today and Monday, temperatures remain in seasonable or below normal with highs generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s today and the mid 70s to low 80s for Monday.

Tuesday-Sunday: Dry Through Midweek, Shower and Storm Chances Return Later in the Week

Shortwave ridging builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface high moves over the Upper Midwest resulting in both days being dry. With southwest flow in the mid levels returning, temperatures begin to climb in to the mid 80s for both days. By Thursday, a trough traverses the northern CONUS kicking the ridge out of the Upper Midwest and bringing an increased chance for showers and storms. The latest LREF already has a 30 to 55% chance for at least 0.25" to fall along and west of the Mississippi River through Friday morning. After this trough moves through on Friday, ensemble cluster guidance favors a longwave trough sitting over the western CONUS starting on Friday and continuing into early next week which results in the Upper Midwest being situated under southwest flow aloft. While this flow pattern will help to bring warmer temperatures, highs will get into the mid to upper 80s, it could also a transition to a more active period, or at least a short period of active weather into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light southeast winds this afternoon and evening become light and variable for the overnight, continuing through the morning. Scattered showers and storms continue for northeast Iowa early this afternoon. These showers and storms will gradually dissipate and shift off to the northeast over the next few hours. Another band of showers and storms currently over northwest Iowa will make its way towards southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa later this afternoon and into southwest Wisconsin by the early evening. Even though thunderstorm potential decreases after midnight, some light showers may still linger through the early morning hours. CIGS generally stay in the 3500 to 6000ft range while it is raining.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.