textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Overall quiet weather expected through the start of the week. Current highest precipitation chances (20-40%) for Thursday. Warmest day expected Wednesday, low confidence (20-40%) in exact temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Mostly Quiet Weather Expected:

Low confidence in sensible weather impacts through the week as west-northwest upper level flow potentially permits meager, weakening perturbations and transient bouts of return flow; creating variability between long term global forecast models. Main model discrepancy originates in the Tropics where an upper level low is undercutting the synoptic high over the Desert Southwest on GOES west water vapor imagery loops this evening. Resultant differences in strength of the high, influencing direction and strength of west-northwest flow perturbations differing overall degree of warming and light, low precipitation chances through midweek and late week.

While most recent EPS (22.18Z) continues to be the wetter solution compared to the GEFS (22.18Z), both long term global ensembles have exhibited decreasing probability trends for precipitation through the week. Therefore, while interensemble maximum probabilities for 0.01" of QPF in 24 hours would encompass much of the week with some, albeit limited, probabilities most days, overall lack of confidence leaves a dry (<15%) NBM outside of Thursday morning (20-40%).

Current forecast confidence suggests the warmest day will be Wednesday before a frontal boundary sags south through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Too early to discern exact temperatures as 25-75th spread in NBM remains 5-10 degrees, from the 60s to upper 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Skies will be mainly clear today and then some mid and high clouds will move into the area tonight as a cold front moves through the area.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Snowmelt has led to rises on area rivers and streams over the past week with this continuing in areas that saw 1-2 feet of snow a week ago, concentrated in the Black and Trempealeau basins. These rises have outrun both deterministic forecasts and HEFS output with minor flooding ongoing on the Black River at Black River Falls. This may also cause minor flooding downstream at Galesville but have refrained from issuing a Flood Watch at this time due this taking place more than 48 hours down the road. As for the Trempealeau, do not expect Arcadia to reach minor flood as, while the forecast is well higher than top end HEFS output currently, upstream observations suggest a turnaround will very likely (95%) occur before minor flood is reached.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.