textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above average high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are forecast each day through Sunday along with mostly dry conditions.

- Cooler conditions and rain chances (30-50%) return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

This afternoon through Sunday: Mostly Dry with Warm Conditions

Northwest to west flow is forecast to prevail through the rest of this work week which will keep temperatures fairly steady in the upper 60s to mid 70s each afternoon. Mostly dry conditions should persist as well, outside of the low chance (10-30%) for light rain on Friday morning. A narrow corridor of positive theta-e advection is forecast to move over Iowa towards the Great Lakes on Friday as strong WAA in the lower levels surges northeast towards the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest. Subtle PVA in the upper level flow may aid in the development of scattered rain showers, but given the amount of drier air over the region, the anticipation is that not much rainfall should occur with this activity.

Ridging begins to build further north this upcoming weekend increasing the likelihood of well above average temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. Ensemble forecast guidance continues to be in great agreement that Saturday will be the warmest day of this forecast period. The latest 07/13z NBM probabilities still show a strong signal for highs to reach or exceed 80 degrees for most locations across the Driftless Region. In addition to the warm conditions, southwest wind will increase on Saturday in response to an increasing LLJ at H850 with wind speeds up to 35-45 kts. This should translate to surface wind speeds up to 20-25 mph with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. NBM probabilities for gusts to reach or exceed 40 mph are the highest across the far western portions of the CWA, closer to the low level jet max, and those probabilities are upwards of 40-60 percent. Temperatures should decrease by a few degrees on Sunday along with much less noticeable wind as the ridge moves off to the east.

Early Next Week: Trending Cooler and Rain Chances Return

Global model guidance is in good agreement that a trough will dig south across the western CONUS early next week but that is about where the agreement ends. How the trough and the associated center of low pressure evolve throughout the rest of the week remains uncertain. In any case, this pattern should lead to the potential for cooler conditions along with chances for precipitation. Disturbances out ahead of the trough combined with surging moisture should lead to precipitation chances during the next work week. The main questions right now are just when are the best chances for precip and how much precipitation could occur with this system. Additionally, multiple tropical cyclones may attempt to interact with the troughing pattern across the west and those systems may also have an impact on the precipitation potential. Right now, there is fairly good ensemble agreement that this could occur in two waves, with the first being on Monday into Tuesday and the second one being during the later half of the week. Those details will become more clear as we get closer to early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with winds remaining at around 5 kts from the west-northwest. Valley fog is unlikely at KLSE due to both the northwesterly surface winds and winds above 10 kts just off the surface. However, if winds can trend more calm overnight, would not rule out (10-20% chance) some intermittent fog or perhaps a broken low-stratus deck on the Mississippi River.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.