textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions prevail through Wednesday with steadily warming temperatures--reaching the mid-50s for highs by Tuesday.

- Next chance of rain arrives for Thursday, though amounts and impacts look to be light.

- A stronger weather system arrives for Friday and next weekend with heavy rain the main threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Through the Middle of Next Week: Dry and Warming

An Omega Block remains the dominant weather feature across the north central CONUS from today into the middle of next week, bringing a stretch of dry weather and sunnier skies. A 1026-mb surface high reflection currently stretches from western Lake Superior southward to the Lower Mississippi River Valley and gradually strengths and slides to the southeast, being centered over the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley for the beginning of next week.

Return SSW flow sets in across the region for Sunday into Monday and remains in place through midweek before the ridge breaks down. Despite the multiple days of southerly flow, we will be slow to warm with Gulf air remaining relegated to the coast. Look for highs to only rise 10-15 degrees between today and Wednesday given this setup.

Thursday into Saturday: Rain Returns

The first of two weather systems arrives for Thursday and ushers a cold front through the region, though the strength of this cold air advection is questionable looking at the medium range ensembles with some solutions showing little for temperature impacts. Rainfall impacts also are shaping up to be minimal with this transient system as only 20-30% of the LREF ensembles depict rainfall amounts over 0.10".

After the passage of this first wave, a stout northward push of higher lower tropospheric theta-e air arrives for Friday and the weekend, setting the stage for a stronger Colorado low to eject across the north-central CONUS. While the ensembles are settling in on the general setup for this event, there exist substantial differences in the upper level wave structure and surface low track, which of course play a large role in the placement of the heaviest precipitation Friday and Saturday and temperatures later in the weekend.

The signal for higher rainfall amounts has shifted more northerly over the last 24 hours, but they are still close by and could easily shift southward at this range in the forecast. The latest LREF probabilities for >0.50" are around 50-60% and >1" sits 20%. This northward probability shift also favors the region to stay on the warmer side of the low. As a result, the probabilities for accumulating snow on the backside of the system have trended further northward, but we could still see light dusting of snow on the backside of the storm depending on the strength and timing of the cold air advection.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the period. Light and variable winds this afternoon and tonight slowly become established from the south at <10 kts west of the Mississippi River below midday on Sunday. No aviation impacts are expected across the region through the first half of the upcoming week.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.