textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic showers and storms over the next 7 days with high temperatures remaining in the 70s for most locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Periodic showers and storms, a bit cooler than normal over the next week

Guidance strongly suggests that northwest flow aloft will be predominant over the next week. While this will bring very limited, if any, windows for southerly moist advection and an appreciable risk for severe thunderstorms, disturbances within the flow aloft should still be capable of generating showers and a few thunderstorms, particularly if they eject downstream during the afternoon hours. In the short term, good signal for this to occur Thursday afternoon, so have increased PoPs above NBM 20s closer to 40-50. In any case, rain should be brief but there may (25%) be a risk for some lightning for those outside. Moving ahead, additional rounds are possible Friday (40-60%), Tuesday (30-40%), and Wednesday (40%).

Deviation from the described pattern is possible over the weekend when an upper jet advances over the central High Plains, spurring the development of a lee cyclone in western KS that then moves eastward. Operational guidance and ensembles generally keep resulting severe thunderstorm and heavy rain potential well to our south but ML post-processed output suggests a few members, mainly belonging to the 17.00z ECENS, have a more northern solution which may bring hazardous weather potential to northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. Thus, the weekend will likely be uneventful but will need to keep an eye on things, especially considering the aforementioned upper jet is still west of the CONUS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Lingering MVFR ceilings have been lifting overnight and area expected to continue. While scattered shower/storm chances remain possible this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include at either TAF site at 18.12Z issuance.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.