textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and dry for much of the next week. There are some indications that temperatures may rise warmer than forecast, in which case heat headlines might become necessary.

- Next chance of precipitation does not look to arrive until the end of next week at the earliest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: Quiet and Dry

A surface high pressure ridge arching out of the upper Great Lakes will lead to quiet and calm conditions today with highs inching a few degrees higher than yesterday owing to clearer skies and a slight increase in low to mid-tropospheric temperatures. A weak ribbon of theta-e advection could generate some showers over NW Wisconsin late tonight that sag southeast towards the local area early Sunday morning, but the convective allowing guidance differ greatly with whether these showers even form and their southeastward progression.

Early Next Week: Warmer and Dry

A blocking longwave ridge builds over the northern High Plains for the start of next week that will fold eastward and drive our weather for the bulk of next week. With the surface high reflection anchoring along an axis from the southern Missouri River Valley to the southern Great Lakes, the strongest warm air advection will take place over the Dakotas during this period, However, this warmer air will spill across the northern CONUS and result in a steady increase in lower tropospheric temperatures--increasing from +16 to +24 C at 850 mb between today and Tuesday. While the raw NBM guidance has highs in the lower 90s, there are indications in the raw/MOS guidance that highs could push more into the mid-90s, or even the upper 90s in the few spots. If these come to fruition, heat headlines might become necessary for Monday and Tuesday. Have started to trend the official forecast warmer given these trends.

End of Next Week: Still Warm, Next Chance for Rain

The aforementioned ridge flattens and slides to the southeast as it wraps around a corresponding cutoff low over the Southern Plains. In doing so, it brings the jet stream a closer to the area, but odds are it stays up over Lake Superior and Ontario. The guidance begins the vary substantially on the evolution of the pattern by this point onward and given the weak forcing that could drive any rainfall, the precipitation forecast is of equally lower confidence. However, even when breaking down the individual ensemble members, the signal for precipitation is very weak through the end of the week. There may be some cooling of temps later in the week, but by how much is far less certain and if one were to lean on the EPS, we stay hot through the whole week with the cutoff low less amplified and stronger warm air advection from the southwest U.S.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the day and evening with IFR to LIFR valley fog possibly developing after 06Z and lasting through 12-13Z Sunday morning. Winds remain generally under 5 kts through today from the south to southwest, increasing to 5-10 kts from the southwest by midday Sunday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.