textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances looking less for the area from tonight into Sunday morning.

- Uncertainty remains for the temperatures from Memorial Day into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Friday afternoon through Sunday morning

There is less phasing between the northern and southern stream shortwave troughs. As a result, there is a split now showing up in the operational and ensemble models in the precipitation. They are now showing that the better chances of showers and storms is mainly west and southeast of the area from Friday afternoon into Friday night and from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

The instability remains rather weak (generally less than 250 J/kg) through this period. In addition, the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear is only up to 20 knots. As a result, not expecting organized severe weather.

Memorial Day through Thursday

The models are in good agreement that a 500 mb ridge will build across the area. These building heights will result in above- to well-above normal temperatures developing across the region. It continues to look like we will likely exceed the 85th percentile with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s.

Like yesterday, there is still a concern that a trough southwest and south of the area could move into the area. If this occurs, temperatures would be more in the 60s and 70s and there would be a threat for showers and storms. This is why there continues to be large ensemble spreads in the high temperatures for this time period. up in the operational and ensemble models in the precipitation. They are now showing that the better chances of showers and storms is mainly` west and southeast of the area from Friday afternoon into Friday night and from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours under BKN-OVC skies. Ceiling heights sit around 10kft this evening, but begin to lower towards 8kft overnight and towards 5kft towards Friday evening. Winds remain out of the southeast through the TAF period, generally 5-10KT overnight. Wind speeds increase Friday morning, bringing gusts of 20-25KT through Friday afternoon. Rainfall potential begins to increase for those west of the Mississippi River around the end of the current TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

With average high temperatures in the mid-and upper 70s and average low temperatures around 50 for the Memorial Day weekend, this looks to be warmest Memorial Day weekend since 2023.

There is concern that we could see the area rapidly dry out as the heat returns to the area next week. For the month of May, Rochester has only received 0.55 inches (currently the 2nd driest May and the driest since 1934) and La Crosse has only received 1.02 inches (currently the 7th driest May - driest since 1988).

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.