textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical to near critical fire weather conditions for Saturday due to strong southwest winds and low relative humidities.

- Temperatures go on a warming trend this weekend and early next week as highs on Sunday are in the 60s and by Monday are in the 60s and 70s.

- Multiple precipitation chances (30 to 50%) for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Today-Monday: Critical Fire Weather Conditions Saturday, Warming Through the Weekend

Thanks to a cold front that arrived yesterday, cooler air has filtered in behind it leaving the forecast area with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Today will be the coldest day of the forecast period as southwest flow returns to the region. With increasing southwest winds, warm air advection will help warm the forecast area up into the 50s for Saturday, the 60s for Sunday, and the upper 60s to mid 70s for Monday. Dry conditions are expected through Monday due to no shortwaves passing through and the weak zonal pattern.

Focusing on Saturday, winds will shift from the northwest to the southwest tonight as a high pressure system moves off to the east. As this high moves away, the pressure gradient tightens and winds pick up as a result. Currently there are sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph for areas west of the Mississippi River. These winds coupled with the low minimum relative humidities have resulted in Red Flag Warnings being issued for these locations. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for areas north of I-90 in Wisconsin due to the strong winds, and low relative humidities, however the fuels there compared to Iowa and southern Minnesota are not as primed. Looking at soundings for Saturday, there is good potential for a well-mixed environment which would result in dewpoints being lower, winds being slightly stronger, and relative humidities being lower compared to what is currently forecasted. There are a couple of uncertainties with how dry we can get due to a slight increase in some return flow moisture and brings some mid level clouds to the region and if some of this moisture can be lowered closer to the surface (lowered cloud deck), then the area would not get as dry. Despite these uncertainties, the environment does look favorable for deeper mixing to occur.

Tuesday-Friday: Precipitation Chances Return

Heading into the midweek, the upper level pattern shifts to zonal and southwesterly. Our first precipitation chance is Tuesday as a trough dips down into the Upper Midwest and brings an associated cold front. As the fronts translates southward, it becomes more of a quasi-stationary front and in doing so will become the focus on more precipitation will be most likely favored for the latter portions of next week. With the warm southwest flow for much of next week, there will be a good influx of moisture into the region. While this part we are confident in, the much less confident part is where and when a shortwave can help provide the lift necessary for precipitation to occur. The quasi-stationary boundary will be a good area of focus for where precipitation will be most likely. While there is good agreement in the GEFS and EPS on increased precipitation chances next week, there are still some members that have nearly dry or completely dry solutions. With the transition to southwesterly flow though, a shift to a potentially more active pattern is in store, just need better agreement on exact timing after Tuesday for when the next precipitation chance will occur. As a result of this uncertainty, PoPs for the upcoming week remain in the 30 to 50% for Tuesday and again on Thursday into Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR expected through the period with gusty northwest winds today into early evening. Winds shift in the sunrise hours with south winds increasing and gusting 25-30kts Saturday afternoon.

Using GOES satellite, monitoring an MVFR cloud bank in western MN that is moving toward KRST. It is expected to dissipate before reaching KRST, but there is still some low probability for it to affect IA/MN (20%).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Critical to near critical fire weather conditions for Saturday. Strong southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible, along with relative humidities in the 15 to 25% range and drier fuels have resulted in a Red Flag Warning being issued for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible in western Wisconsin, especially north of I-90 where fuels are a little more primed than in southwest Wisconsin. Looking at soundings for Saturday, there is good potential for the environment to be more well-mixed which would result in slightly stronger winds and lower relative humidities, potentially as low as the upper single digits to low teens, than currently forecasted. This will be something to monitor for Saturday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030.