textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Several weak systems might bring snow to areas mainly along and north of Interstate 90 and 94. These system may bring snow to parts of the area on New Years Day, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, Sunday night, and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

New Years Day

A 500 mb shortwave trough, currently moving into British Columbia, will move southeast through the region on New Years Day morning and early afternoon. BUFKIT soundings are in general agreement that the better saturation and stronger lift will occur along and east of the Mississippi River. Due to this, the precipitation chances were raised into the lower and mid-60s. BUFKIT soundings show that ice will seed the moisture between 900 and 400 mb and this will result in snow. With the lowest 50 to 100 mb generally dry, not anticipating any freezing drizzle which is different from that past 2 systems. The snow in any area should only last 2 to 4 hours at most. There is good agreement among the CAMs and global models that snow amounts will range from just a dusting to as high as a half-inch.

High temperatures will range from the 5 to 20 degrees.

Saturday afternoon into night

The models are in good agreement that a 500 mb shortwave will move southest across the Great Lakes. Only 25% of the Grand Ensemble Members produce any measurable snow. If it does occur in the area, it would be along and north of Interstate 94.

High temperatures will range from the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Sunday night

Another 500 mb shortwave trough will be moving southeast either through the Upper Mississippi River Valley or Great Lakes. While 86% of the Grand Ensemble Members produce snow along and north of Interstate 94, only 15 to 20% of these member produce measurable snow.

Low temperatures will range from the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Tuesday

The models show the potential for another 500 mb shortwave affecting areas along and north and Interstate 90. 56% of the Grand Ensemble members show that the trough will be deep enough to produce snow along and north of Interstate 94. The remaining members show that there will be enough upper level ridging to keep this snow closer to the International border.

High temperatures will be in the 30s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Outside a few isolated pockets of MVFR ceilings that continue to dissipate, VFR conditions will prevail across the region overnight. As we head into the morning hours, another round of snowfall is expected (60-80%), moving northwest to southeast generally between 12z-21z. Confidence in snowfall is highest along and east of the Mississippi River, but have maintained mentions at KRST with this issuance. MVFR/IFR visibility reductions are expected within the snowfall. Ceilings will also gradually lower through this period, becoming MVFR over west- central to central Wisconsin (50-70% per the 01.00z HREF). Thinking ceilings will improve to VFR after the snow exits the region, although there is some indication in the 01.00z HREF that ceilings less than 3kft could linger through the end of the TAF period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.