textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- A small (15-25%) chance for snow showers north/east of I-94 during the day Friday. However, if snow showers do form, brief impacts would occur.

- Dry and breezy for Saturday with potential for elevated fire weather conditions.

- After a cool Friday, a warming trend is favored through Tuesday. Multiple chances for precip (30-50%) next week with potential for greater than 1-2" of rain if all details come together.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Friday: Snow Showers Possible North of I-94

A quick little 500 mb shortwave is expected to swing through the Northern Great Lakes tomorrow, clipping portions of Central Wisconsin. As this moves through, we could see a few convective snow showers out of this as the DGZ saturates. Given the dry air intrusion in the lower levels behind this afternoon's cold front, this looks to limit how much could potentially reach the ground. It's also unlikely given the warm ground temperatures that any of this would stick if it does reach the ground but with low level lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km developing, this could create brief, intense bursts of snow that would cause visibility reductions. These snow showers will be confined to areas north and east of I-94 with most areas staying dry and partly to mostly sunny tomorrow. Temperatures will be much cooler than days previous with post frontal cold air advection keeping highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday - Monday: Warming through the Weekend

A strong surface high pressure is expected to drop out of the Canadian Plains and into the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley by the weekend. As it starts to move off to the southeast, winds will quickly shift to the south and pick up as the pressure gradient tightens to the northwest. 27.00 HREF soundings show some very dry air through much of the lower levels lingering into Saturday. With daytime mixing, this could create dew point depressions between 20-30 degrees with sub-25 percent RHs looking plausible. Combine these dry conditions with the gusty southwest winds and we're looking at near critical fire weather concerns. The main saving grace will be the fact that the lowest RHs and the strongest winds will not be co-located since the lowest RHs look to be across Wisconsin with the strongest winds west of the Mississippi River. It also helps that ambient temperatures will be cool in the upper 40s to low 50s. However, if we overachieve with mixing or temperatures end up climbing a little higher, we could get into more of a critical fire weather scenario. This will need to be monitored going forward.

Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will continue on their upward trend with highs in the 60s to potentially lower 70s by Monday. The continued southerly flow and warm air advection will help to increase dew points across the region. Winds also look to be much lighter these next two days, decreasing any fire weather concerns in comparison to Saturday.

Tuesday - End of Next Week: Rain Chances Return

The forecast for mid next week and beyond gets a little more interesting as the dominant upper high across the southern CONUS breaks down with much more zonal flow expected across the northern portion of the country. A low amplitude upper level shortwave looks to eject east across the Northern CONUS Tuesday with a weak surface system developing across the plains with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary extending to the east. Where this boundary sets up will be of significance as precipitation looks more likely along and north of the boundary through the week. Given the high amount of uncertainty between the ensembles as to how to handle the pattern next week, currently have a broad brush of PoPs in the 20-50 percent range Tuesday onwards. There will certainly be an influx of moisture to the region with much higher pWats working their way north with the warm air advection by early next week. So the question is more on the timing and magnitude of any lifting mechanisms from Tuesday onwards. With the high amount of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast, it's hard to hone in on any details but should everything line up just right, this could lead to a decent rainfall event across the area (overall GEFS seems a bit more enthused than the EC ENS). Will need to watch this potential going forward as hopefully ensembles come into a bit more agreement.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Other than low confidence (<20%) in a short window of transient MVFR ceilings later this morning, main aviation impact will be increased northwest winds through Friday. Strongest winds will be west of the Mississippi River Valley, 25 to 30 kt gusts, with 20 to 25 elsewhere locally.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Snowmelt driven flooding on the Yellow River at Necedah continues to recede this afternoon. Without any moderate to heavy precipitation ahead until next week, this should move below flood stage tomorrow.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.