textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Another shot (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A strong thunderstorm or two may develop.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon/evening

17z WV satellite shows northwesterly flow aloft over our forecast area with a weak disturbance in this flow over western Lake Superior. At the surface, a cold front is located over northern WI.

This afternoon and evening, as the weak disturbance moves southeast and the backdoor cold front begins to push through the area, showers and thunderstorms may develop. With warm surface temperatures and dewpoints once again in the 60s, would seemingly expect a similar outcome to yesterday but with convection favoring our east, away from the upper ridge building over the eastern Dakotas. Compared to yesterday, mid levels are drier and am thus concerned that updraft attempts may struggle. Have therefore kept PoPs in the 20-50 range for now. In any case, deep boundary layer continues to indicate a risk for a stray severe gust and, with deep shear just a touch stronger than Tuesday at around 25 knots, could see a stray severe hail report once again.

Above normal temperatures ahead

Guidance continues to point toward persistent upper ridge over the central CONUS with cyclonic flow centered in eastern Canada. After a post-frontal day with temperatures near normal Thursday and Thursday night, temperatures return to the 80s for Friday through next Tuesday. As time goes on and the upper ridge slowly weakens, could get some afternoon/evening convection Sunday through Tuesday but confidence in details is very low at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A backdoor cold front will move south and southwest through the area this evening and overnight. There may be a few storms near KLSE between 28.02z and 28.04z, but confidence was not high enough to include them in KLSE TAF at this time. Both ceilings and visibilities should remain primarily VFR.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.