textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures this afternoon with highs in the 50s and 60s give way to a gradual cooling trend throughout the week with highs in the 20s and 30s by the weekend.

- Rain moves into the area Tuesday night and into Wednesday with a rumble of thunder possible south of I-90. Low potential (10% chance) for freezing rain/wintry mix north of I-94 before a switchover to light snow occurs late Wednesday. Minimal snow accumulations are currently expected.

- A secondary system moves through the region Thursday afternoon and into Friday with a rain to snow transition likely (50-70% chance). Confidence for accumulations of an inch or greater are increasing (40-60% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Rest of Today - Tuesday: Continued Mild Temperatures

Zonal mid-level flow continues to be the predominant synoptic flow pattern today with some weak upper-level ridging and warm advection allowing for persistent mild temperatures for the early part of this week. Consequently, median high temperatures in the NBM respond accordingly for today with highs in the 50s to lower 60s south of I-94. Given minimal signal in satellite trends for cloud cover this afternoon, have opted to increase highs slightly with areas that predominantly see southwesterly surface flow through the afternoon likely hitting 60 degrees. Definitely a good day to get outdoors as these mild temperatures will not last for much longer. As we head into Tuesday, highs generally in the 50s are expected south of I-94 again, however as a 500mb shortwave approaches the region expecting an increase in cloud cover for the daytime hours.

Tuesday Evening - Wednesday: Rain for Much of the Area, Thunder Possible South of I-90

After sunset on Tuesday, an area of surface low pressure and broad low-level warm advection push into the area instigating an area of light rain across much of the local area with a respectable axis of 850mb moisture transport pushing into the region. As moisture gets pushed north into the local area, dewpoints are progged across much of ensemble/deterministic guidance to increase into the 40s along and south of I-90 overnight. As a result, really not expecting temperatures to cool below the 40 degree mark, so confidence is extremely high for an all rain scenario south of I-94. Additionally, with the moisture advection, the 16.12z GFS shows some MUCAPE (around 100 J/kg) across portions of southwest WI and northeast IA suggesting that a few storms cannot be ruled out.

On Wednesday, cold advection begins to work into the region behind this system allowing for temperatures to decline slightly during the day and into the evening. As a result, could see some freezing rain (~10% chance of occurrence) and/or snow mix in north of I-94 as thermal profiles cool. Overall not expecting much for snow accumulations north of I-94. Aside from precipitation chances, increased winds are likely on Wednesday as a tighter pressure gradient and increased mixing from the aforementioned cold advection regime will aid in momentum transfer of a 35-45 kt low-level wind field to the surface. Consequently, the EC ensemble has fairly respectable probabilities (50-80%) for wind gusts over 35 mph west of the Mississippi River during the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Friday: Cooler, Rain & Snow Likely

Thursday will initially feature a brief lull in precipitation during the morning and early afternoon with temperatures being noticeably cooler behind the aforementioned cold air advection. However, this lull in precipitation will be short-lived as a secondary trough/potential closed 500mb low swings towards the local area. Surface low positions have come into slightly more agreement in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) cluster analysis as opposed to 24 hours ago with rough trajectory through IA/IL and into southern WI overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. However, the operational runs of the GFS/EC show still some slight timing and location differences. Overall the general conceptual model with this features the surface low slowly deepening as it moves east/northeast with a fairly compact deformation zone on its western flank. Given there will still be a somewhat warm antecedent airmass as this low moves through the region, the cold advection associated with this system will have to do some work before a changeover from rain to snow occurs, especially the further southeast you get. In addition, the GFS frontogenesis at 700-900mb depicts a fairly healthy signal within this deformation zone so may need to watch for the potential of heavier precipitation rates in this compact area depending on the exact track of the surface low.

As far as snow amounts are concerned, probabilities are fairly high (50-75%) in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) for measurable snowfall during this period. However, probabilities for snowfall accumulations of an inch or greater still hinge on both the exact location and intensity of this surface low as probabilities are around 40-60 percent in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) for an inch of snowfall or greater. Important to note that these probabilities have increased over the past 24 hours. There are even some low-end probabilities (10-30%) for amounts in excess of 3 inches across the local area, wondering if these probabilities are broad brushed and if they will increase and become more fixed to a specific area as the location and intensity of the deformation zone is more refined. In any case, this looks like the time period with the highest potential for accumulating snow at this point over the next 7 days.

This Weekend: Returning to Seasonable Temperatures

As we head into the weekend, mid-level flow begins to turn more northwesterly allowing for a return of a more typical winter airmass into the region with highs generally in the upper 20s to 30s. Deterministic guidance hints at the potential for a clipper system to descend into the region Saturday night and into Sunday. However, predictability at this stage seems on the lower-end as the grand ensemble only has low probabilities (20-40%) for measurable snowfall during this period so have opted to hold with the NBM precipitation chances for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through mid to late afternoon, with the risk for restrictions increasing in the evening east of the Mississippi River where ceilings/visibilities are progged to fall to IFR levels as rain develops. Further west, the risk of restrictions looks more tied to a broken band of showers that lifts through between 03 and 08Z, with there being a 20-30% chance of a few thunderstorms. These lower ceilings and visibilities push northeast and mostly out of the forecast area towards sunrise Wednesday.

Tonight's east winds of 5-10 kts increase out of the southeast at 10-15G15-25kts by midday, strongest west of the Mississippi River. These winds further increase through the afternoon and remain blustery into the evening hours with some locales gusting to 20-30kts. If evening winds do manage to decouple, the risk for LLWS quickly increases. However, confidence in this scenario was not high enough to mention in the LSE TAF.

Winds remain strong during the day on Wednesday with westerly winds gusting to 30-35+kts, mainly south of an EAU to ISW line.

CLIMATE

Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record warm low temperatures may be set today and Tuesday at Rochester.

RECORD WARM LOWS FOR ROCHESTER

Date Record (Year) / Forecast ---------------------------------------- Mon, Feb 16 35 (1981) / 36 Tue, Feb 17 35 (1981) / 37

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.