textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Persistent forecast today and Wednesday with daytime highs a couple of degrees below normal for this time of year. Warmer temperatures in the 30s expected area wide for Thursday. Low confidence through the weekend increases for warmth early next week.

- Low confidence in daily, sporadic precipitation chances primarily north of Interstate 94 locally in central Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Slightly Below Normal Temperatures Until Thursday:

A mostly persistent forecast on tap for today albeit a couple of degrees colder across the forecast area as the core of the low level cold air mass of the last several days advects an appendage over the Upper Mississippi River Valley as it progresses east-southeast into the eastern Great Lakes.

Similar to previous forecasts, warmer temperatures expected Thursday as low level WAA excites overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. High confidence (67%-87%) for daytime highs in the mid 30s.

Unfortunately, confidence in local temperatures Friday plummets due to differences in progression of an extratropical cyclone over the eastern Great Lakes through the early weekend. Western extent and troughal appendages of colder low level air affect the Upper Mississippi River Valley in a healthy mix of LREF members. Regardless, similarly aforementioned higher confidence for warming into early next week.

Sporadic Precipitation Chances:

Subsequent light snowfall probabilities are rapidly decreasing as they approach the forecast area from the northwest Wednesday morning (LREF) due to a weakening synoptic wave and a lack of overall moisture.

Additional precipitation chances Thursday and Friday morning vary within and between LREF members due to vast differences in nature of an extratropical cyclone sagging southeast over the eastern Great Lakes. Unable to increase or add PoPs away from NBM which keeps <15% and unmentioned weather impacts when there likely will be impacts somewhere in central Wisconsin. Given the several hour ingestion delay, hopefully NBM PoPs reflect an increase in subsequent forecast; also antiquated upon issuance.

Regardless, highest local chances remain north of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin. Recent NAM (03.00) suggests freezing rain potential which has been a signal in the select GEPS sounding plumes over the last few runs as well. Low (12-18% NBM, 30-50% LREF) precipitation chances persist north of Interstate 94 Saturday and Sunday, heavily hinged upon behavior of downstream phasing and location.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Outside of central Wisconsin (KMDZ) VFR expected through the 03.12Z TAF period locally.

Subsequent, more widespread impacts possible through Wednesday morning/afternoon.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.