textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain shower chances (20-70%) increase this afternoon into early this evening with the highest chances north of I-94. Rain amounts under 0.25" are expected.

- Temperatures may drop low enough to form frost across central to north-central Wisconsin on Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures into next week with highs in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

This afternoon through tonight: Light Rain Showers

A quick moving upper level trough is traversing southeast out of the Dakotas towards the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. This feature is propelling a surface cold front southeast that should reach the CWA tonight. Before that occurs, low level temperatures will increase a few degrees today when compared to yesterday so that should result in highs being a few degrees warmer, but still in the 60s. Synoptic scale lift out ahead of the trough should continue to generate isolated rain showers throughout the day. The better potential for rain will come later on this evening into tonight as the trough moves over the region. Rain chances increase up to 40-70 percent this evening, with the highest chances along and north of I-94. Rain may develop just south of I-90 overnight as well, but the chances in that occurring are much lower (10-30 percent). Rainfall amounts should remain light around a quarter inch or less.

Sunday into Monday: Frost Potential Sunday Night/Monday Morning

In the wake of the frontal passage on Sunday, the only noticeable change will be the wind direction throughout the day. The wind should be out of the northwest with some gusts up to 20 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will be nearly identical to today in the 60s. Mostly clear skies are expected throughout Sunday into Monday, which will aid in strong radiational cooling overnight. Widespread lows in the lower 40s to mid 30s are forecast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and frost may develop across central to western Wisconsin. The latest 03/13z NBM probabilities indicate a 20- 50% chance for overnight lows to drop down to 35 degrees or less for locations near Black River Falls, to the east, and further north towards Medford. Frost Advisories will likely be needed in future forecast updates given this potential. After a cool start to Monday, temperatures will rebound right back into the 60s with continued clear skies due to surface high pressure just to the south of the CWA.

Rest of Next Week: Near Average Temperatures and Dry Conditions

Synoptic flow is forecast to be mainly zonal through the next work week. This pattern should lead to mainly quiet weather across much of the country, including the Upper Midwest. High temperatures each day will be around average for early October in the upper 60s to lower 70s. At this time, overnight lows beyond Monday morning do not appear to get close to frost or freeze conditions. Mostly clear skies with dry conditions are forecast for much of the week until mid level moisture tries to push back north late week. As of now, the potential for rain associated with the increased moisture appears very low, but cloud cover should increase as a result. Temperatures may also rise up above average late week as upper level ridging may increase over the central part of the CONUS.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Outside of a few light isolated to scattered showers north of I-90 this afternoon, primarily dry and VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon with some SCT-BKN mid-cloud around 10kft. Southerly winds continue across the region as well, gusting to around 25KT west of the Mississippi River.

Heading into this evening, a cold front moves through the area generally between 00z-06z bringing the potential for another round of showers (30-80%) again mainly along and north of I-90. These showers are also expected to be light with little to no aviation impact, but MVFR visibilities could be observed north of I-94 where greater potential for showers exists and slightly higher rainfall rates are favored. VFR conditions and northwest winds are expected on Sunday behind the cold front.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.