textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warmth is expected through mid-next week.

- Tuesday night into Wednesday may bring windy conditions (10-40% for a 45 mph gust) and will likely (35-85%) bring precipitation to the region. Precipitation mainly looks to be rain aside from north of I-94, where snow is also possible and freezing rain is a remote (10%) possiblity as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Anomalous warmth continues

Broad ridging continues to build over the central CONUS today with the axis of this ridge sliding over the Four Corners as of 19z. In our neck of the woods, a slight reduction in heights aloft is expected for today due to a southern stream wave over KS and then again tomorrow as a northern stream wave, currently seen in WV satellite over MT, advances downstream over WI. By Monday, heights aloft should rise once more as the ridge builds over E TX. With winds at the surface Monday becoming southwesterly due to a surface high building in the eastern CONUS and lee troughing starting to develop to our west, the end result should be a slight pause in the warming trend for Sunday before the upward trend resumes Monday with highs in the 60s potentially (15-50%) occurring south of I-90, particularly in SW WI. GFS/EC/CMC show good agreement on increasing clouds and dominant easterly surface winds Tuesday as a strong lee surface low develops in WY/SD/NE with highs in the 45-55 range favored per 14.13z NBM interquartile values.

Potential for notable wind and precip Tuesday night into Wednesday

Tuesday, strong upper trough slides over the Rockies with a southwesterly upper jet advancing over the Front Ranges. Lee cyclogenesis in MT/WY/SD/NE looks to occur as a result. Strengthening surface gradient through the day Tuesday will lead to breezy easterly winds with an outside shot (10%) for a 45 mph gust west of the Mississippi Valley. With the upper jet advancing over IA, surface low is favored to track through MN into N WI. Southerly flow from the Gulf looks to be advected northward with widespread precip developing on the eastern and especially northern side of the surface low late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, westerly 850mb jet of potentially (35-45% per 14.12z LREF) greater than 40 knots sets up on the southern side, leading to windy conditions with potential (10-40% per 14.13z NBM) for a 45 mph gust across the area, with relatively higher chances west of the Mississippi valley.

Uncertainties about placement of heaviest precip, placement of strongest winds, and precip type largely come down to placement of the upper low. Broad agreement across guidance mentioned in previous discussion continues with the 14.12z cycle, where 80% of members across GFS/CMC/EC ensembles have a more northern track, placing more of the CWA at risk for those 45 mph gusts discussed above and focusing precip along and north of I-94. Additionally, this solution would be warmer overall, allowing more of the area to see only rain with some snow mixed in north of I-94 and, crucially, keep risk of freezing rain out of the area. Should things trend toward the more southern track (20% of members), in addition to more snow potential would need to monitor for FZRA potential, as 14.12z LREF joint probabilities for precip, below freezing surface temps, and above freezing 850mb temps do reach 40% in Clark/Taylor Counties in this scenario.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period outside of a 10-20% chance of IFR/LIFR visibilities north of an EAU to ISW line between 06-15Z tonight. Winds will generally be light and variable from the southwest to northwest through the period around or less than 5 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Here are some of the record high and warm low temperatures for La Crosse and Rochester from February 15 through February 16.

Record or near record highs Sunday, February 15 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 49 (1931) / 51 La Crosse, WI 65 (1921) / 48

Record or near record highs Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 59 (1931) / 52 La Crosse, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 53

Record or near record warm lows Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

Warm Low Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 35 (1931) / 38 La Crosse, WI 40 (1981) / 35

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.