textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with near normal temperatures through Thursday.

- Increasing storm chances through Friday into Friday night, low confidence (<10%) for local strong to severe threat. Rain and storm chances persist through late weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Early This Morning: Lingering Rain, Fog

Rain continues for portions of Northeast Iowa and far Southwest Wisconsin early this morning as the frontal boundary sits just to our west near the Twin Cities metro. As the frontal boundary slowly pushes to the east/southeast, so will the rain. Most impacts across the area will be in the way for low clouds and fog thanks to the residual low level/surface moisture from recent rainfall. Fog, dense in some areas, will linger through morning, burning off a few hours after sunrise. This will likely impact the morning commute for some so be sure to leave yourself a few extra minutes on the roads.

Today - Thursday: Drier, Near-Normal Temperatures

Winds from the west finally start to pick up through the day today, which will help to usher in a slightly drier airmass, even though the frontal boundary still won't be fully through the area. A surface high pressure building in from the Plains will help to push the boundary fully through the area by day break Thursday and should keep our forecast dry for the mid/late week time period. With weak upper level ridging set to build in, even though a "cold" front moved through, temperatures will remain near normal in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday - This Weekend: Rain Chances Return, Slight Cool Down

Things look to get a bit more active as we head into the weekend with a pronounced upper trough sweeping across Canada/The Northern CONUS. While the base of the upper low will be well to our north, likely across the Hudson Bay, the trough/trough axis will extend well south into the CONUS and so will the cold front from the subsequent surface system. Return flow is expected to be strong Friday afternoon, allowing for ample destabilization across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Combined with the potential for decent shear from the passage of the upper level shortwave and synoptic lift from the cold front, both AI NWP forecasts and the SPC Day 4 Convective Outlook are highlighting much of Minnesota (including portions of Southeast Minnesota) for severe weather potential Friday night into early Saturday morning. Currently, the severe potential for our area is still questionable as the timing of the trough passage will play a critical role in whether convection would make it to our area before instability starts to wane. Models keep going back and forth on this timing so this will be something to pay attention to over the coming days. Overall the better potential seems to favor Central/South Central Minnesota and areas further west. Otherwise, expect slightly cooler temperatures behind this cold front with highs in the 70s for the weekend. Yet another chance for rain returns Monday with both and EC/GEFS showing a stout upper trough ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest and towards the Plains. LREF Grand Ensemble (GEFS/EC/GEPS) probabilities for precipitation on Monday are already between 65-85% 6 days out. This will be something to watch from a heavy rain perspective.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Main aviation impact will be immediate term IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities building shortly after 09.06Z TAF issuance. Edge of upper level cloud deck associated with RADAR returns south of the forecast area in central Iowa expected to shift east of the local forecast area shortly after issuance with VLIFR/LIFR visibilities being observed from southern Minnesota into northern Iowa where skies have remained clear. Degree and timing of cooling affecting initial impact onset and subsequent lowest observations will require continual monitoring. Expect impacts to lift through the late morning.

Strong west winds expected through the daytime hours with FG potential Wednesday night through Thursday morning highest in southwest Wisconsin potentially into northeast Iowa and parts of southeast Minnesota.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.