textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cooler day on hand today with a rather tricky, low confidence cloud forecast.

- A clipper system brings light snow on Tuesday with the main impacts north of I-94 where we could see snow amounts of 1-2 inches.

- Still not a solid answer for how our Wednesday night/Thursday morning system will play out. The track is trending south into northern/central Iowa and the strength of the snowband is in question.

- Seesawing temperatures this week with the warmest day of the week shaping up to be Friday. Confidence in the exact high temperatures is lower over our new snowpack.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today: Clouds, or Sun?

The cloud forecast for today is rather tricky given two competing forces at play that the guidance is failing to balance. The current suite of short/medium range solutions are failing to even depict the current stratus shield over Wisconsin, courtesy of a NNE fetch off Lake Superior that is pumping more moisture into the boundary layer than the models are showing. Subsidence off an approaching 1045-mb surface ridge should erode the stratus shield and slow the SSW progression of the band early this morning. This will happen, but how quickly is the main question. There will be a sharp cutoff between clear and cloudy skies that is difficult to convey in the deterministic forecast grids given the low confidence in the timing of the clearing. The cloud cover also plays into high temperatures today and have nudged highs downward towards central Wisconsin where the clouds should hang on the longest. Expect plenty of updates needed to the sky forecast through the day!

Tuesday: Snow Clips the Region

Upstream upper tropospheric ridging over the Rockies flattens this morning as a 170-kt jet streak crests the ridge and drives into the region. A relatively subtle PV lobe ripples down the downstream flank of the ridge and amplifies as it moves into the Great Lakes. The surface cyclone reflection tracks across northern Minnesota into the Michigan UP during the day on Tuesday, keeping the risk for the highest snow amounts north of the forecast area. The region will find itself in the isentropic ascent/WAA region of the cyclone with limited moisture to work with, limiting the degree of impacts for most the region, though we could sneak out a few inches of snow north of I-94. The snow comes to an end by Tuesday evening as the wave races ESE. The overall forecast confidence for how this system will play out is on the higher side (60-70%), but the same cannot be said for the second system 36 hours later...

Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning: Snow Trending South, Weaker

Forecast trends over the last 24 hours have, if anything, lessened confidence in how our Wed night/Thu morning storm will unfold. The deterministic guidance are depicting a shallower upper tropospheric wave moving across the High Plains on Wednesday, limiting the degree of cyclogenesis along the surface baroclinic zone. As a result, the guidance is now leaning on the surface low developing further south in the Ark- La-Tex region and choking off our Mid-Missouri River Valley system. This has been a solution that the EPS guidance started gravitating towards yesterday morning and the GEFS suite is starting to peal in that direction. The GFS/GEFS 00Z output still maintains the mid-level deformation/fgen zone and a modest snow band over northeast Iowa, but would not be shocked if these totals slip south and decrease over the next 24 hours. The vort lobe is situated off the Pacific NW coast and the guidance could still wobble, but the recent trends are hard to ignore.

Temperature Trends for the Week

Temperatures seesaw over the next few days as our pair of weather systems move through the region. WAA ahead of our Tuesday boost highs into the low to mid 30s, followed by the cold front Tuesday night that sends highs back into the 20s for Wednesday. With our Wed/Thu system trending south, we start to see a Pacific/downslope airmass spread eastward off the High Plains and result in high temperatures surging for Friday. Just how warm will be dictated by our snowpack, but areas of lower snow coverage will see highs in the 40s to maybe even near 50. These warmer temperatures are short-lived as a cold front slams southward and sends highs back into the 20s/30s (some outliers are in the teens) for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Updated at 325 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

MVFR stratus along and east of the Mississippi River will persist early this morning and gradually clear off from west to east today. Northwest winds will continue on their downward trend through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. Winds will become light and variable during the afternoon before quickly shifting to south and remaining under 8 kts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.