textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures through the week with temperatures largely staying in the mid to upper 30s with some low 40s possible today and again by the weekend.

- Low precipitation chances in Clark and Taylor counties today (20 to 35%) with more widespread precipitation chances possible on Thursday (30 to 50%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Above Normal Temperatures Through the Week:

Warmer southwest flow today, will help to warm temperatures up into the upper 30s to low 40s, however with southwest winds of 10 to 15mph, feels like temperatures remain in the low to mid 30s. After today, zonal flow takes over helping to keep temperatures above normal, mostly in the mid 30s until Friday when widespread low 40s may be possible. There is some disagreement in temperatures towards the latter half of the week as both the GFS and ECMWF have a deepening trough over the Great Lakes and into the northeast US, however the GFS and GEFS members support a slightly more amplified trough and linger it into the weekend which keeps our temperatures a few degrees cooler than the ECMWF and EPS which have a slightly more progressive/weaker trough which helps to keep temperatures more in the upper 30s to low 40s for the late week period.

Precipitation Chances:

Later this afternoon into the early overnight a shortwave moves through the Upper Midwest. This wave is separated from an upper level/surface low situated in southern Ontario. Much of the precipitation stays closer to that low, however there is enough lift with this shortwave that precipitation will be possible in northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. The only area in our CWA that may see some light snow/rain/freezing rain would be Taylor County and northern portions of Clark County. With model soundings just below freezing, all precipitation will be possible as surface temperatures remain right at or just below freezing. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation amounts, up to a couple hundredths at most or if freezing rain happens then there is a low chance (10%) that a glaze of ice could occur. Also, while precipitation chances have increased slightly from previous forecasts, they are still on the lower side (20 to 35%) as the higher precipitation chances remain in northern Wisconsin.

Dry conditions take over for Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface high moves overhead. Thursday is the next chance at more widespread precipitation chances (30 to 50%) as a shortwave trough dips down into the Upper Midwest. Southerly low level flow returns to the area at the same time as moisture transport increases slightly. With temperatures in the low to mid 30s, this could be a rain/snow event with precipitation starting out as rain and then ending as snow. It is still too early to tell how much precipitation and what precipitation type will be. One thing that is gradually increasing in confidence is the probability of measurable precipitation, 0.01 inches, across the CWA in both the GEFS and EPS where both ensembles have a 45 to 85% chance of measurable precipitation south of I-94. After Thursday it looks to be dry on Friday as weak upper level ridging builds in. Then some disagreements between the deterministic and ensemble models with both the GFS and ECMWF having a low ejecting out of the southern Rockies and the shifting into the Ohio River Valley, keeping precipitation chances out of our CWA. Compare this to the ensembles, where the mean GEFS probability of measurable precipitation is between 15 and 30% and the mean EPS is 20 to 40%.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Predominant VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Mid level clouds between 10kft and 15kft expected through the evening. CIGS gradually decrease heading towards the end of the TAF period when MVFR CIGS, roughly 1.5kft to 3kft, enter southeast Minnesota and portions of northeast Iowa and west central Wisconsin. Low precipitation chances (20 to 35%) exist for north central Wisconsin. Southerly winds through the afternoon shift to the northwest as a cold front arrives this evening resulting in sustained winds mostly between 10 to 15 mph and gusts of 15 to 25 mph. LLWS will be possible in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin this evening in the 2 to 4 hours before the cold front arrives. This will be something to monitor for both KLSE and KRST to see if it may needed to be added to the TAFs.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.