textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snowfall chances (30%) in northeast Iowa tonight. Low light snow chances (<10%) Wednesday morning west of the Mississippi River Valley. Similarly low (20-30%) light snowfall chances Thursday morning through Friday morning north of Interstate 90 in Wisconsin.

- Warmer than normal temperatures Thursday fluctuate some to start the weekend, returning to above normal through the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Light Snow Grazes Northeast Iowa Tonight:

An open wave on early morning upper level GOES WV imagery progresses southeast along northwest flow, grazing snowfall chances (<20%) for the southwestern half of the forecast area, primarily in northeast Iowa locally. Northeastern extent of snowfall band remains forecast detail to remain cognizant of, dependent on lingering low level dry air limiting widespread saturation and availability of lingering residual moisture. Regardless, minimum overall amounts expected (<0.5").

Light snowfall probabilities plummet as they approach the forecast area from the northwest on Wednesday morning (LREF) due to separation in the longer synoptic wave; northern stream well to the northeast of the forecast area and southern stream well to the southwest. Additional precipitation chances Thursday morning through Friday morning differ between and within LREF members due to vast differences in nature of an extratropical cyclone sagging southeast over the eastern Great Lakes. Regardless, highest local chances remain north of Interstate 90 in Wisconsin. Other than a select few members of the GEPS that suggest a slight warm nose in central Wisconsin causing freezing rain chances, mostly snow with a mix of rain is expected.

Warmer Thursday & Most Of The Weekend:

Besides the GEFS (02.00Z), higher LREF confidence (70-100%) for above normal 2 meter temperatures come Thursday. Differences in phasing and deepening of a subsequent extratropical cyclone over the eastern Great Lakes through Friday into the early weekend causes fluctuations in confidence come Saturday. While the GEFS remains adamant for 0% probabilities, the GEPS and EPS suggest 30-50% probabilities for near normal high temperatures Saturday as the wave and accompanying cold tongue slide southeast. This inter-ensemble member disagreement persists into next week as the GEFS keeps probabilities below 10% until Tuesday while the GEPS and EPS only increase from 40-60% probabilities on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Freezing drizzle continues to move through western Wisconsin. This drizzle should move out of western Wisconsin between 08Z and 10Z. MVFR to IFR CIGS and visibilities accompany this freezing drizzle. After the drizzle moves out of an area, MVFR CIGS linger for a few hours before lifting above MVFR criteria. Clouds are expected to scatter out mid to late Monday morning before becoming BKN to OVC later Monday afternoon into the evening. Light southwesterly winds in western Wisconsin continue to shift to the northwest as a cold front moves through the area. These northwest winds will continue through the rest of the TAF period.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.