textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Small chance (up to 20 percent) in northern and eastern Taylor County tonight.

- Two rounds of precipitation expected from Monday night into Tuesday. First round (snow with a very small chance of freezing drizzle) mainly north of Interstate 94 on Monday night. Second round of precipitation (mainly rain) along and behind a cold for the entire forecast area on Tuesday.

- Another round of precipitation (mainly snow) from Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves south through the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Tonight

A shortwave trough will move southeast across the Great Lakes tonight. Like yesterday, the better lift and moisture will remain northeast and east of the area. Only northern and eastern parts of Taylor County might be clipped by this snow, so have up to a 20 percent chance of snow in this area. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Monday Night into Tuesday

Another shortwave trough will move southeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes. This system will provide 2 chances of precipitation. The first chance will be associated with warm air advection ahead of the warm front on Monday night. This precipitation will be confined mainly north of Interstate 94. If the moisture in the boundary layer is able saturate enough, there is a small chance (up to 15%) that there could be a brief 1 to 2 hours of freezing drizzle. Otherwise, the precipitation will be in the form of light snow. Little, if any, snowfall is expected.

On Tuesday, another round of precipitation is expected as a Canadian cold front moves south through the region. The air mass will be initially too dry for precipitation, but as the air mass cools, it will gradually saturate and precipitation will form along and in the wake of the front. With the temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s, the precipitation will be in the form of rain.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday

Yet another shortwave trough and associated cold front will move south through the region. All of the saturation occurs within the dendritic growth zone, but it is only 50 mb to maybe 100 mb in depth. This would result in snow to liquid ratios in the 15-20 to 1 range. However, with only up to 0.01 inches of QPF expected, snow totals would only amount to a couple tenths of an inch at most.

Like yesterday, the sustained winds and wind gusts looked to low. With this being a known bias in the NBM, raised them up using a blend of 75 percent NBM 90th percentile and 25 percent NBM. These values are now much closer to those being suggested in BUFKIT.

Thursday into Saturday

A 500 mb longwave trough will develop and deepen across the eastern half of the CONUS. Like the past couple of days, there is still some uncertainty on how deep and how far west this trough will extend. This results in uncertainty on how cold and where the storm track will be located. Due to this uncertainty, stayed with the NBM for temperatures and precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

MVFR stratus is steadily clearing from west to east across the region this afternoon, with VFR conditions forecast for the remainder of the TAF period once these clouds clear. Winds increase out of the southwest through the afternoon with speeds of 5-15G15-25kts by sunset. These winds slowly veer to the WSW and weaken after midnight with values of 5-10kts for the day on Monday. LLWS cannot be ruled out at lower elevation TAF sites this evening if surface winds decouple, but the risk looks transient (<4 hrs) and marginal.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.