textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder than normal temperatures today and Saturday with highs mostly in the teens give way to near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures into next week with highs returning to the 20s to lower 30s.

- Light snow moves through the area Sunday morning into the evening bringing light accumulations of around 1". Highest amounts will likely be in portions of southeast MN and west- central WI near and north of I-90.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Rest of Today - Saturday: Colder Than Normal Temperatures

Today will be the last day we are stuck in this persistently cold airmass as and upper-level front will push south of the local area allowing for upper-level shortwave ridging to push in from the northeast. As this occurs, flow will turn to south/southwesterly at the surface and usher in some "warmer" temperatures on Saturday with the median high temperatures in the middle teens to lower 20s in the NBM. Overall, with high pressure building into the region at the surface, would expect skies to be mostly clear for the first half of the weekend. As a result, would expect Saturday morning to be one last cold morning with lows generally in the single digits below zero areawide due to the efficient radiative cooling with clear skies and calmer winds.

Sunday: Light Snow Moves Through the Area

As we head into Sunday, a shortwave trough will push through the area on the heels of the aforementioned shortwave ridging. Initially, warm advection with southwesterly flow out ahead of the wave will shape up a narrow baroclinic zone over the region during the morning hours as this warm advection interacts with northwesterly flow with the trough axis. Consequently, the 30.12z NAM has a fairly respectable frontogenetic region that pushes through the area during the morning on Sunday. While this passes through any location rather quickly, would expect that heaviest snowfall rates will be at precipitation onset across the local area. Behind this frontogenetic region, weaker QG-convergence with the associated shortwave will keep snowfall rates on the lighter side before exiting the region by Sunday evening.

As far as accumulations are concerned, with this frontogenetic signal popping up, probabilities have increased (40-90% chance) in the NBM for an inch of snow or greater with highest probabilities west of the Mississippi River as the QG forcing appears to lingers for a longer duration the further west you get. Additionally, probabilities are respectable (30-60%) in the NBM for 2 inches or greater near the Mississippi River and north of I-90. Overall, SLRs would seem to be around 15:1 given some saturation in the DGZ where the forcing is present initially but the remainder of the thermal profile in the NAM underneath 700mb being above -10C. Would not be able to fully rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle as we lose saturation aloft in the DGZ later on Sunday, however model soundings have limited consensus on how DGZ saturation will play out on the back edge of this system at this point so have not opted to include any mention of freezing drizzle at this time.

Next Week: Temperatures Warm to Near Normal, Periodic Snow Chances

Zonal to northwesterly flow in the wake of the weekend shortwave will keep temperatures relatively steady-state with highs generally in the 20s throughout the early part of next week. As we head into Tuesday, a quick and weak shortwave passage may bring some passing light snow to the local area. However, probabilities in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian) are low to medium (20-50%) for measurable snowfall at this point so does not appear to be anything overly impactful. By the time the second half of the week rolls around, deterministic guidance has some shortwave ridging which works into the area overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning which likely turns our surface flow south to southwesterly. Consequently, temperatures warm slightly with the inter-quartile range for highs on Thursday in the NBM ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Furthermore, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian) has respectable probabilities (10-50% chance) for highs to get above freezing during the Thursday/Friday period, so may be a period to watch for potentially ending our streak of below freezing temperatures. Some early indications for a shortwave passage late Thursday and into Friday which may bring additional snow chances, however there remains wide spread on this in both deterministic and ensemble members so confidence for any precipitation potential remains low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Main aviation impact is in immediate term as MVFR stratus deck is quickly shifting south-southwest on satellite imagery and surface obs at 31.06Z TAF issuance. Previous confidence remained too low to include at either TAF site but given current trajectory and observations passing over KBCK, have included MVFR ceilings at KLSE through Saturday morning. Narrow extent of initial stratus deck will limit local areal impacts, grazing KONA on the west and KOVS on the east. Wider coverage upstream over KRCX would impact KRST should stratus continue propagating. Confidence remains marginal so have kept FEW at KRST TAF site. Lower confidence of lifting stratus out of the forecast area through Saturday.

Subsequent impacts from snowfall expected Sunday morning.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.