textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warmth is expected through mid-next week. Near record to record warm temperatures are possible.

- More active weather is expected by mid-next week bringing bouts of precipitation to the region (40-80%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today

Fog has largely struggled to develop overnight owing to dry air atop the shallow inversion, although some fog development has occurred in local low lying areas and the Wisconsin River Valley. Pockets of fog that were able to develop will mix out quickly this morning.

Through the rest of the day, above normal temperatures are expected across the region with highs topping out in the low to mid 50s south of I-94 and mid 40s north of I-94 as southwesterly winds continue to usher warm air into the region. Outside of temperatures, partly cloudy skies will exist, of greatest coverage south of I-90 as an area of low pressure shifts eastward across the southern half of the contiguous United States.

Overnight, a 500hPa shortwave trough and associated weak surface low quickly shift through the Upper Midwest. Model soundings depict a dry atmosphere below 10kft, so not anticipating any impacts from these features apart from increasing mid-level cloud cover and winds shifting to the northwest into Sunday morning.

Anomalous Warmth Through Mid-Next Week

The well advertised warmth continues into the new week as bouts of southerly wind and associated warm air advection under predominant upper ridging results in 850hPa temperatures above the 90th percentile of climatology per the 13.12z NAEFS, a consistent trend over the past few days. High temperatures climb into the low to mid 50s for those south of I-94 with the potential (10-30% per the 14.01z NBM) to reach 60 degrees over portions of southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa on Monday. Those north of I-94 are expected to have slightly moderated temperatures owing to the snowpack, but the abnormal warmth will still be felt across these areas with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Near record to record high temperatures are possible through the beginning of the new week, but with more active weather expected by mid-week, warm low records are favored over record highs Tuesday and Wednesday.

More Active Weather Mid to Late Next Week

On Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough ejects into the Great Plains, promoting cyclogenesis throughout the troposphere. The anomalously deep (near/at the climatological minimum in both the 13.12z NAEFS and 14.00z LREF) surface low that develops in response to these forcings shifts eastward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

The ensembles that comprise the LREF (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) have come into far better agreement regarding the track of the low with the 14.00z run of the grand ensemble. Previously, LREF cluster analysis depicted two primary solutions of nearly equal membership: a more northern solution and a more southern solution. The recent runs have trended towards the northern solution, bringing the low more directly over southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. This better agreement increases confidence regarding precipitation potential Tuesday night into Wednesday with the 14.01z NBM highlighting 40-80% probabilities across our area, highest north of I-94 which is in line with the northward trend. QPF is also expected to be highest north of I-94 as the 14.00z LREF suggests 30-60% probabilities for greater than 1/4 inch and 10-30% probabilities for greater than 1/2 inch.

Rain is expected to be the predominant precipitation type with this event owing to the preceding abnormal warmth, although some snow may be able to mix in north of I-94 where thermal profiles depicted in model soundings hover near freezing, especially towards daybreak Wednesday. A rumble of thunder also can't be ruled out along and south of I-90 as global deterministic models suggest upwards of 100 J/kg of MUCAPE will be present.

Despite the increasing confidence in the current forecast, this event is still several days away, so there is still time for additional variation within the model suite. If models begin to trend southward as the parent wave begins to move onshore the west coast and be better sampled, snow could become a greater concern for those in north-central Wisconsin.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A few pockets of MVFR mist/fog have developed overnight, but will quickly dissipate this morning with most sites back to VFR after 14z. Another round of fog is possible tonight primarily north of I-90 with the 14.00z HREF painting 30-60% probabilities for less than 1SM visibilities. The 14.07z NBM does not have quite this strong of a signal, but does depict potential for MVFR visibility reductions. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail today with southwesterly winds of 5-10kts, becoming light and variable tonight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Here are some of the record high and warm low temperatures for La Crosse and Rochester from February 14 through February 16.

Record or near record highs Saturday, February 14 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 58 (1954) / 54 La Crosse, WI 56 (1934/1954) / 56

Record or near record highs Sunday, February 15 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 49 (1931) / 51 La Crosse, WI 65 (1921) / 52

Record or near record highs Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

High Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 59 (1931) / 55 La Crosse, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 57

Record or near record warm lows Monday, February 16 (Record/Forecast):

Warm Low Temp ---------------------------------------- Rochester, MN 35 (1931) / 39 La Crosse, WI 40 (1981) / 35

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.