textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder temperatures Monday and Tuesday with highs in the middle 30s to upper 40s.

- Seasonable temperatures return Wednesday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.

- Rain with snow mixing in at times (20-40% chance) Tuesday and Tuesday night. Accumulating snow chances (40-70%) for Thursday and into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today - Tuesday: Trending Milder, Rain/Snow Tuesday

GOES-19 water vapor imagery depicts the upper-level vorticity lobe responsible for our snow showers overnight moving southeast of the local area. Behind this more pronounced troughing regime, shortwave ridging will work its way into the area for today and into tonight with some warm advection along with it as it transverses through northwesterly flow. As a result, seasonable high temperatures today with values generally in the middle 20s to near 30 will give way to well above normal temperatures for Monday and Tuesday with highs ranging from the middle 30s to upper 40s, with Tuesday likely being the warmest day with most areas south of I-94 likely topping 40 degrees. This is supported by much of the NBM as the inter-quartile range for high temperatures generally keeping highs in the 40s south of I-94 on Tuesday with the 75th percentile even suggesting some river valley locations in southwest Wisconsin could near the 50 degree mark.

As far as precipitation chances are concerned early in the week, a weak shortwave perturbation will move through the northwesterly flow across northern WI this evening. Overall the moisture profile with this wave is not overly impressive with limited moisture transport and precipitable waters of around 0.4" or less across north-central WI. As a result, precipitation probabilities north of Hwy 29 in Wisconsin are very low (under 20% chance) in the 11.00z HREF. That being said, with low-level saturation generally not reaching into the dendritic growth zone at KMDZ, cannot rule out a period of freezing drizzle manifesting if forcing is strong enough. A more robust shortwave will then move into the area for Tuesday which will generally have more favorable synoptics as well as moisture as deterministic guidance generally agrees on deepening a surface low and transversing it through the Upper Great Lakes region. Consequently, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has relatively high probabilities (50-70% chance) north of I-94 for measurable precipitation on Tuesday. Given the abundantly warm temperatures during the day on Tuesday, would expect rain to be the predominant p-type, however this may mix with some snow into Tuesday night as well as early on Tuesday with precipitation onset.

Wednesday - Friday: Seasonable, Snow Likely Friday

As we head into Wednesday, the passage of a cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will knock our temperatures back to near seasonable for the latter half of the week with highs progged in the NBM generally in the 20s to near 30. Roughly seasonable for this time of year. Would not rule out some post- frontal snow showers on Wednesday as low-level lapse rates steepen during the daytime hours combined with cyclonic flow and weak low- level instability. A more robust wave then moves into the region on Thursday evening and into Friday as it ejects into the region in the northwesterly flow. Currently, deterministic and ensemble guidance generally has high probabilities (60-90% chance) for measurable snowfall during this period within the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble). There is even some respectable probabilities (30-60% chance) with this wave for accumulations of 1 inch or greater within the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble). So certainly looks like this would be our next realistic shot for accumulating snow and have held the likely precipitation chance mention in accordance with the NBM during this period.

Next Weekend: Temperatures Trending Below Normal

In the wake of this aforementioned shortwave, robust northwesterly flow and cold advection push into the region for next weekend with highs likely trending below normal come Saturday. Currently, the inter-quartile range within the NBM on Saturday has a large spread for high temperatures from anywhere from the single digits to the lower 20s. However, this would suggest favorable probabilities for highs being below normal during this period, just exactly to what degree being the question.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

MVFR conditions will continue throughout much of the morning hours as low-level moisture remains in place. However, ceilings will improve to VFR by late morning and into the afternoon hours across the local area. Winds will remain steady state at around 8-15 kts throughout much of the TAF period. Some LLWS will be possible during the evening as RAP/HRRR model soundings increase winds at around 2kft to around 50-55kts. However, opted to not include any mention for this issuance as gusts to around 20-25 kts may be possible at both TAF sites which would mitigate LLWS concerns.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.