textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry week with gradual warming to slightly above normal temperatures by midweek. Winds weaken for Monday.

- Precipitation chances increase for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Slightly Less Breezy and Warmer End To The Weekend:

While not as strong as Saturday, another day of breezy southwest winds with gusts nearing 30+ mph primarily west of the Mississippi River Valley expected today. Upstream low level trougholysis near the Missouri River Valley through Sunday causes a low level stretching axis to eventually succumb to anticyclonic flow through the start of the week, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, a few degrees above normal by midweek, and lighter winds through the start of the week.

Mostly Mild Week:

Have lowered surface dewpoint temperatures a couple of degrees today based on Saturday's observations and residual low level dry air. Otherwise, a band of slightly increased low level moisture will reside over the forecast area through the new week, tied between the exiting upper level low over Hudson Bay and return tropical flow through Southern to Central Plains. Main local impact will be bouts of increased cloud cover compared to currently forecasted NBM due to potential low bias given a maximum 40% Thursday outside of a splotchy 40-50% for Monday. While currently forecasted precipitation potential remains less than 10% through midweek, recent LREF members (GEFS 17.18Z/EPS 17.18Z) have exhibited a 10-20% increase for measurable precipitation (0.01") compared to their respective previous runs, nearing 20-40%/10-30%, respectively Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Minimal impact regardless given overall high confidence in above freezing surface temperatures.

Weekend Precipitation Potential:

Subsequent more widespread precipitation chances reach the Upper Mississippi River Valley this weekend as a quasi weak Omega block breaks down and mid level positive vorticity advection lifts northeast through the central CONUS. LREF member probabilities abstain certain probabilities well to the west/northwest of the forecast area closer to the area of strongest synoptic forcing with 50% probabilities for 0.01" of rainfall seen over the western half of the local forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with winds of 12- 18 kts from the south/southwest to start the TAF period. Winds will slightly increase into the mid-morning hours with gusts of 20-30 kts possible, with the highest gusts primarily west of the Mississippi River. Winds will gradually diminish this evening and into the overnight to around 5-10 kts and remain from the south- southwest.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.