textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible across the far southern forecast area. All hazards are possible in this area. Heavy rain continues to be a possibility mainly along and east of the Mississippi River through this evening. - Weather becomes quieter Friday into next week with periodic rain chances and cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Late This Afternoon into Tonight

Vigorous shortwave trough over central Minnesota/north central Iowa will transition east into the Great Lakes Region this evening. Out ahead of the shortwave trough...strong southerly 925-850mb moisture transport along with a surface low/front tracking into central Wisconsin late afternoon/this evening will produce showers/storms across much of the forecast area. Main question will be severe storms across the southern forecast area late this afternoon/evening. Decent 0-6km wind shear of over 40 knots. However...surface/mix layer instability remains over the far southern forecast area and may only lift northward into southern Clayton/Grant counties late this afternoon. With the surface warm front just south of the forecast area. This would keep much of the threat for tornadoes south of the forecast area. Along and north of the surface warm front 0-6km most unstable CAPE builds to around 500 j/kg this afternoon/early evening over the southern forecast area. With the strong shear/some elevated instability...there is a low chance for severe storms across the far southern forecast area Grant/Clayton counties. Confidence in any storms becoming is low...due to the ongoing convection and surface warm front south of the forecast area. If any storm became severe over the far southern forecast area...the main threat would be large hail/damaging winds.

Friday into Sunday

Next concern is upper level trough digs over the Great Lakes Region Friday afternoon into Saturday. Decent forcing/vertical motion with trough will allow for scattered showers/storms across the forecast area Friday evening into Saturday.

As upper level trough digs over the Great Lakes region...northerly flow aloft will advect a cooler airmass into the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. 925mb temperatures fall to plus 7 to 13 degrees celsius by 18z Sunday. High temperatures for Sunday will be much below normal...with temps climbing into the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday Night through Thursday

Upper level trough remains over the northeast United States through much of the forecast period. This continues the west to northwesterly flow aloft over the Upper Great Lakes Region for much of next week. Pieces of energy embedded in the flow aloft will produce periodic chances of convection during the forecast period. With mainly west to northwesterly flow aloft...temperature trends will remain near to slight below normal through the forecast period. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to upper 70s and lows falling into the middle 40s to upper 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

As showers and thunderstorms depart eastward, ongoing IFR ceilings east of a BCK to VOK like and sporadic MVFR ceilings east of a LSE to OVS line will become VFR and then skies will clear west to east. Despite plenty of surface moisture from recent rain, am not expecting valley fog - except of course at OVS where it can seldom be ruled out - due to the notably drier air that will move in from the west tonight. 2-3 hour burst of northwesterly gusts to 30-35 knots will occur behind the approaching front, which will reach LSE roughly at issuance time, around 2345z. Winds will tend to remain westerly during the day Friday with some gusts to 25 knots west of the Mississippi Valley, including RST. Looking beyond the operational period, TS may (30-50%) return after 00z Saturday north of an RST to BCK line.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.