textproduct: La Crosse

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional rain very likely (60-95% chance) Sunday but this will be confined to northeast IA and southwest WI.

- Showers and storms likely (60-90% chance) Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Rain very likely Sunday, but only in northeast IA, southwest WI

Sunday, wave currently moving over the High Plains will roll eastward to IL. As this occurs, broad area of low pressure will develop from KS into IA/MO/IL, driving robust moist advection across the mid and lower Mississippi Valleys. Vast majority of rain will fall near a front extending from northern MO into central IL. In our neck of the woods, some wrap around moisture should be enough for some showers to develop given the forcing aloft. Without deeper moisture however, am not expecting either severe thunderstorms nor hazardous rain amounts (only extreme southern Grant County has an appreciable chance - 20-30% per 21.00z HREF - to exceed 1" of rain).

Showers and storms likely Tuesday into Wednesday

Strong agreement continues across guidance that an upper wave will barrel from ND to Lake Superior Tuesday into Wednesday. At least some southerly return flow looks to occur as a weak surface high sets up in the Ohio Valley. This, along with strong forcing with the wave should (60-90%) lead to showers and thunderstorms. Presence of a west-northwesterly upper jet should allow for enough shear for organized convection but, given limited moisture return, severe storms appear unlikely. Nonetheless, this will be our next period to watch for potentially hazardous weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR expected at local TAF sites (KLSE/KRST) through 21.06Z TAF period while impacts from precipitation likely at smaller airports locally in southern counties of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Most likely impact would be MVFR visibilities within heavier rainfall as ceilings currently expected to remain lower VFR.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.

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