textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Drizzle and fog possible this evening, mainly south of Interstate 90.

- Freezing rain appears likely (40-70%) north of Interstate 94 Thursday night into Friday morning. While amounts favored to be light, only a little bit is needed for hazardous road conditions to develop.

- Above average temperatures through Saturday, then colder than normal returns through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Drizzle this afternoon and early evening, fog evening into overnight

This afternoon and evening, weak lift occurs ahead of an approaching shortwave. With low level moisture on the increase as evidenced by surface obs and increasing stratus, some drizzle may develop south of I-90. That said, latest guidance has backed off on amount and duration of lift and surface dewpoint, while increasing, have done so at a slower rate than expected early this afternoon. Therefore, have reduced the probability for drizzle overall and switched from coverage to uncertainty based wording in the forecast. The good news is that any drizzle is still expected to remain liquid upon reaching the surface as the lone holdout, the NAM, now suggests things will remain above freezing.

Moving ahead to the evening and into the overnight hours, as large scale descent occurs following the passage of the upper wave, fog may settle in, mainly in NE IA. However, given the aforementioned struggles in saturating the surface layer this afternoon, have reduced fog mentions to patchy.

Freezing rain likely Thursday evening, night north of I-94

Christmas day, a surface high builds south of Hudson Bay in the wake of a stout upper wave moving over Maine. In our CWA, easterly winds a slightly cooler regime than today will set up, holding temperatures along I-94 to around 34 with highs in Clark/Taylor Counties remaining below freezing. A disjointed pair of shortwaves look to eject downstream in quick succession Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Upglide in the presence of saturated or near saturated conditions on the 285-295K surfaces suggests that precip will develop, particularly east of the Mississippi. Progged sounding in the global models continue to point toward surface temperatures remaining below freezing in Taylor/Clark Counties with these hovering closer to freezing along I-94. 24.12z HREF is also on board with a 40 to 70% chance for at least a bit of freezing rain across those counties. Have therefore retained the freezing rain in our northeast with this update. 24.12z HRRR and 24.15z RAP profiles at Necedah suggest I-94 will only have a short period with freezing rain. This, coupled with relatively warm pavement temperatures (mid 30s in SE MN per MNDOT) due to our recent shift toward above normal highs, also points toward a limited (15-20%) risk for impacts along I-94. Given continued uncertainty about the southwestern extent of the freezing rain, have elected not to issue a Winter Weather Advisory.

Above average highs through Saturday, then back to the cold

Temperatures continue to run above normal with highs mainly in the 30s through Friday. Temperatures very likely (40-99%) spike into the 40s Saturday as a longwave upper trough begins to eject over the Plains, driving southerly winds in our CWA in response to lee cyclogenesis in E CO. Temps then return into the teens and 20s Monday and Tuesday following a cold frontal passage early Sunday. Sunday's highs, mainly in the mid 20s to mid 30s, will occur early in the day and have quite a bit of room to move down from 24.13z NBM output should the frontal passage trend just a couple hours sooner.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Low-level moisture continues to increase across the area this afternoon as ceilings become MVFR from the SW to NE/ These ceilings are already occurring along and east of I35 corridor. Expect ceilings to continue to fall west of the Mississippi River tonight into low-end MVFR and IFR, with a 30% chance for a brief period of LIFR. A brief window of fog developing west of the river is possible (20-30%), but most likely solution is for low stratus rather than fog. Heading into Thursday flight categories improve into VFR for much of the area through the day, but MVFR/IFR ceilings will remain primarily along and west of US63.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.