textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming through the weekend with low 70 daytime highs for some by Sunday and mid 70s for Monday. Light, low (<40%) precipitation chances Saturday night into early Sunday morning progressing west to east.

- Cold front passage Monday evening brings precipitation/storm chances locally and below normal temperatures through much of the new week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

High pressure seen from the Central to Northern Plains on surface observations tonight expected to pass south of the forecast area through early Saturday morning, allowing slightly warmer temperatures through the weekend with daytime highs in the low to mid 60s for much of the local forecast for Saturday eeking into the low 70s for some on Sunday. Therefore, this morning's Freeze concerns area wide are all but abated through the weekend.

An upper level perturbation seen on GOES WV imagery loops sagging southeast into southern Canada advects a low level trough through the forecast area Saturday night through early Sunday morning, causing light, low precipitation chances. Current confidence keeps higher precipitation chances north and south of the forecast area due to limited duration of return flow keeping remnant moisture as the main moisture source while the trough phases near/north of the forecast area. Should confidence in trough phasing change with coming forecasts, current precipitation chances (<40%) would require an increase.

Wobbling and intensification of the Canadian Low over Hudson Bay advects the actual cold front through the forecast area Monday, ushering in colder temperatures Monday night through much of the remaining forecast period. Accompanying precipitation chances currently remain confined to the northern and eastern half of the forecast area due to a weak Rocky Mountain Low joining the main aforementioned longwave trough cold tongue through the Central Plains into the forecast area, shunting higher moisture south and east of the local forecast area. Current confidence keeps subsequent cyclogenesis along this baroclinic boundary south of the forecast area through the new week, abating higher, heavy rainfall chances south of the local forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Should get some time with clear skies across the region later this morning but a stubborn area of clouds around 10 kft continues to affect areas east of the Mississippi around issuance time. Winds will tend to be out of the west today, becoming out of the southwest tonight. While there is a chance (20-40%) for light rain to sweep through the region from 03z to 12z, this should not lead to flight rules reductions nor TS.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030.