textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Good chance (50-60%) for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight which will bring a small risk for strong wind gusts. Potential (20-30%) for the same exists again Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

2 shots for showers and storms with risk for strong wind gusts

16z WV satellite shows a disturbance over central MN with some associated convection slowly churning east-northeastward on the northern side of an upper ridge centered over IA. At the surface, dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s, a small step upward compared to yesterday. 26.12z RAOB at MPX and 26.00z RAOB at DVN show a small uptick in overall moisture through the column as well with PWAT values approaching 1 inch.

This afternoon into tonight, central MN disturbance will roll east on the north side of the IA upper ridge before an additional shortwave dives southeast out of MN, likely (60%) kicking off showers and thunderstorms. Given the nearby presence of the ridge, flow through the column is weak with little shear, so organized convection is not expected and the development of stronger cells will depend on outflow boundary interactions. That said, 26.12z HREF DCAPE values range from 750-925 J/kg with a well-mixed boundary layer expected, so a stray severe wind gust could (5%) occur. Thinking severe hail is even less likely given relatively skinny instability profiles and no rotating updrafts to induce greater residence time for developing hailstones.

Wednesday afternoon and evening, additional convection may develop as another disturbance dives southeast out of northern MN. With the aforementioned upper ridge becoming centered over the Dakotas, uptick in flow aloft will lead to a bit more deep shear - around 25 knots - so cannot rule out weakly organized convection. However, progged soundings show a return of the mid-level dry air that prevented updrafts from surviving on Monday. Therefore, while a severe gust or hail report would be a bit more probable should thunderstorms develop, the overall chance to get a storm at all is lower (30%) compared to Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures continue

While a backdoor front pushes through Wednesday night, this should only knock Thursday's temperatures back to around normal for late May with highs in the mid to upper 70s. After a good post-frontal radiational cooling night Thursday, when some lower 40s are possible in the cranberry region of Wisconsin, temperatures return to several degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through Tuesday. Exact values are still in a bit more question than usual given our placement between the central CONUS ridge and persistent eastern troughiness, but 26.13z NBM interquartile spread consistently covers the aforementioned range. Given overall pattern, it appears highly doubtful enough moisture will reach the CWA for precipitation to happen, even on days when the ridge remains far enough west for northwesterly flow aloft to become predominant.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Ongoing scattered storms lack confidence in additional coverage or duration into the evening hours. Slow propagation results in storms strengthening and weakening shortly thereafter. While VFR currently forecasted through the rest of the 27.00Z TAF period, similar scattered thunderstorm potential returns Wednesday afternoon/evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.