textproduct: La Crosse

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost for portions of north-central and central WI tonight and Monday morning.

- Minimal precipitation chances throughout much of the week.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected throughout the week with highs in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Today - Monday: Frost Tonight & Monday Morning in North-Central WI

Upper-level northwesterly flow with surface high pressure building into the region will be the main show for Sunday allowing for sky cover to steadily decrease throughout much of the daytime hours. As we head later into the evening and overnight, surface high pressure moves overhead which will allow winds to trend light and variable overnight. Consequently, the combination of light winds, clear skies, and 850mb temperatures falling to around 2-4 C will allow for some patchy to areas of frost across the local area. Overall, the NBM has very high probabilities (60-80%) for low temperatures to fall below 37 degrees across much of north-central and west-central WI with some locations in typical cold drainage areas potentially approaching the freezing mark. Therefore, have hoisted a Frost Advisory in typical cold spots of Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Monroe, Juneau, and Adams Counties.

Tuesday - Friday: Dry with Near to Slightly Above Normal Temperatures

Otherwise, as we head later into the week, temperatures will remain relatively steady-state with persistent northwesterly flow across the region and a relatively unchanged synoptic pattern. Consequently, median temperatures in the NBM remain relatively consistent with highs in the 60s to lower 70s through Friday. Additionally, with the lack of any substantial synoptic forcing in the northwesterly flow regime, thinking that precipitation chances will be fairly minimal. This is supported by the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) which has minimal probabilities (under 20% chance) for measurable rainfall through Friday across the region. It is possible that if a shortwave descending into the Great Lakes on Tuesday manages to trek slightly further south, precipitation probabilities may increase slightly. However, ensemble guidance generally keeps the highest measurable precipitation changes well north of the local area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR expected through the 04.06Z TAF period. Immediate concern of strong off surface low level winds potentially nearing LLWS criteria at both TAF sites remains below thresholds and therefore have omitted from TAF issuance.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029-034- 042>044. MN...None. IA...None.