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KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers into this evening, more widespread showers/storms late this evening through Sunday.

- Shower/storm chances at times through the upcoming work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will depart the Great Lakes to the east tonight as shortwave troughing slides overhead. The associated surface cyclone trekking across Hudson Bay will work into Quebec as the attendant cold front draped far to its southwest into the central Great Plains swings across the region tonight and Sunday. High pressure will try to nose into the northern Great Lakes heading into Sunday night with subsidence aloft behind the shortwave as it moves out.

Forecast Details:

Diurnal cu has expanded over the last several hours across northern lower where isolated showers will continue to bubble up this afternoon and early evening -- mainly along and east of I-75. The next round of more widespread showers and storms will arrive late this evening from the northwest ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Current forecast is that this activity will spread across the eastern U.P. first, eventually making it to the northwest Michigan lakeshores in the 10pm-midnight timeframe. Specifically, expectation is that rain will hold off for most areas for additional fireworks between 10-11pm -- most notably in Traverse City for the conclusion of the National Cherry Festival. Best shower/storm chances will spread across northwest lower, Tip of the Mitt, and eastern upper after midnight with thunder chances diminishing through the night as instability wanes with time. Severe storms are currently not expected.

Best rain chances will migrate southeast across the CWA early Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as the front works across the area. Thunder chances also look to increase some through the morning and into the afternoon with rising instability due to daytime heating. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, chances appear low at this time due to limited instability and deep-layer shear overall. The primary concern with activity tonight through Sunday will be localized heavy rainfall with any training heavy showers/storms. Rain chances will diminish from northwest to southeast on Sunday, with rain chances finally departing the CWA Sunday evening. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be in place Sunday with the rain and frontal passage. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s across northwest lower and eastern upper to the low to mid 80s for those near Saginaw Bay.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Largely zonal flow looks to be overhead for the start of the work week as a cold front gradually works southeast of the CWA Sunday night into Monday. Troughing is expected to progress over the Great Lakes in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, providing enough forcing aloft to generate somewhat disorganized surface pressure falls across the region. There's uncertainty in pattern evolution heading into the second half of the week regarding how long aforementioned troughing sits overhead. Current thought is the troughing will gradually pivot east of the Great Lakes late this upcoming week, allowing high pressure to temporarily build in heading into next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Rain-free weather is expected across northern Michigan Monday through most of Tuesday with temporary high pressure behind the frontal passage. Slight chance to chance showers and storms are in the forecast at times through the remainder of the week as troughing works overhead, potentially providing enough support for some activity across the area. Best chances for rain may come during the middle of the week as aforementioned weak low pressure work across the Great Lakes. Otherwise, slightly warmer than average temperatures look to be in store for the Northwoods through the work week with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conditions remain in place until showers and storms move across the region from the northwest. Conditions will drop first at KCIU with -SHRA with VCTS and lowering cigs just after sunset, followed by the remaining sites lowering overnight. Ceilings quickly lower to IFR conditions overnight with potential BR around dawn Sunday morning. Low ceilings linger into Sunday as showers leave the area late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.