textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances later this evening and tonight, and again on Friday. Severe thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

- Warm, humid weather continues through Friday before highs return close to average for the holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A jet max embedded in large-scale zonal flow over the Great Lakes will work east tonight as low-amplitude upper-level ridging slides more squarely over the Upper Midwest heading into the holiday weekend. A boundary draped across the region tonight and Friday looks to sag south into Saturday as high pressure centered over Hudson Bay noses into the Great Lakes, and potentially may center itself more firmly overhead early next week as additional ridging folds over from the west.

Forecast Details:

Primary focus continues to be on the potential for thunderstorms across northern Michigan. Latest observations and guidance have continued to decrease confidence in severe thunderstorms materializing across the area through tonight -- which will be much- welcomed for many after several rounds of impactful storms yesterday and last night. These thoughts are also echoed by the Storm Prediction Center as much of the area has been pulled out of the Marginal Risk (1/5) with the removal of the Slight Risk (2/5) across our far southwest with the latest outlook update.

Rain/thunder chances appear they will largely hold off over the next several hours. Latest radar imagery has shown a broader precip shield across central Wisconsin weakening over the last hour, and is unlikely to reach the shoreline of northern Michigan. Better chances for showers and storms are expected to move in later this evening and tonight as surface-based instability builds across the southern half of Wisconsin through the day, providing a more supportive environment for upstream convection to develop/travel across into the lower peninsula -- likely at or after sunset for northwest lower. As noted above, while a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and hail are possible, chances are low at this time.

Looking ahead to Friday, a similar situation presents itself. While there's uncertainty in how potential showers/storms evolve through the day, best chances for scattered showers and storms look to move in late afternoon and evening across northern Michigan -- potentially throwing a wrench into holiday plans across the area. Once again, a few stronger storms tomorrow may be capable of producing gusty winds/hail, but expectation is that storms will largely remain sub-severe through tomorrow night.

For the Fourth, aforementioned high pressure may help rain/storm chances hold off across northern Michigan and focus better chances to our south -- and perhaps Sunday through the first half of next week. Another warm and humid day is expected Friday, especially near Saginaw Bay where heat indices may push into the mid to upper 90s. That said, some relief is in store this weekend with highs in mid 70s to mid 80s expected Saturday and Sunday -- which are close to average highs for the start of July.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Current trends support that perhaps some scattered showers/storms could develop this afternoon into the evening, but the most likely timeframe for development seems to be around or just after 00z. Exact location and severity remain uncertain at this time, but leaning towards more of sub-severe conditions. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the main hazards. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period, with the exception of any passing storms that could temporarily lower conditions.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ036-041-042. MARINE...None.