textproduct: Gaylord

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad long wave trough encompasses much of North America...split flow over the eastern Pacific consolidates over the northern Rockies with omega blocking across most of the Pacific basin. Northern branch of this consolidated flow impacting the Great Lakes though as mentioned in this space yesterday not exactly a polar trajectory (flow originates over the Gulf of Alaska). Stronger jet axis associated with southern branch jet that emanates from an eastern Pacific trough (eastern member of the omega blocking). Water vapor imagery shows a couple of vorticity centers in the vicinity of the Great Lakes moving through the mean trough position; next short wave trough in the northern branch over Saskatchewan. Colder/drier air spilling across the upper Lakes today...-20C 850mb temperatures impinging upon Lake Superior. At the surface...991mb low over northeast Ontario with a cold front crossing southern Lower. 1011mb high centered along the Dakotas/Minnesota border...plenty of sub-zero cold north of the Canadian border.

Current flow configuration will remain mostly intact through the end of the week; broad long wave troughing with a (fast) northern branch influence on the Great Lakes. Saskatchewan short wave trough swings through the region Thursday...strong northern branch jet streak punches east across the northern Plains/upper Midwest Friday with another short wave trough riding the cyclonic shear side of this jet and clipping the Great Lakes. Polar vortex lobe over Greenland forecast to retrograde and end up over the Canadian Territories by the end of the weekend. This should inject some arctic air into the northern branch flow for early next week though the Great Lakes may be spared the brunt of this.

Cyclonic flow weakens tonight as weak high pressure builds in from the west. Another Alberta clipper will develop Thursday and track northern of Lake Superior Friday; southerly boundary layer flow and warmer temperatures Friday followed by a return to reality Saturday with the passage of a strong cold front. Cold high pressure builds into the Midwest/Great Lakes for Sunday/Monday...then we will see about moderating temperatures for the first part of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Lake effect snow showers continue tonight: Pretty good thermodynamic profile in place across the upper Lakes today. 1200Z APX sounding had an inversion around 690mb/-21C...likely aided by the passage of a low level vorticity center evident in radar imagery now crossing Georgian Bay. Multi-band northwest flow lake bands ongoing off Lake Michigan... Radar snow accumulations suggest 1-2 inches so far since 1200Z across parts of Kalkaska/Antrim/Charlevoix/Otsego counties. Long dominant band that extends across Lake Superior was over Whitefish Bay earlier today but has re-oriented more into southern Luce and Mackinac county...with the KAPX 88D now showing returns from this band emerging onto northern Lake Huron (usually not a good sign). More transverse banding/gravity waves across eastern Lake Superior and adjacent areas of Ontario. Will be watching the Lake Superior dominant band into this evening as it impacts the Straits islands and perhaps clips the US-23 corridor down to Presque Isle late this afternoon...then its evolution during the night. Decent signal that the band will either get pushed east again or will reform farther east along frontogenetic maximum forced by developing cold drainage flow out of Ontario. This may then get pushed west again as frontogenesis maximum translates west along the density current. That's a bit of a mouthful...and snowfall potential will rely on convective mesoscale details that can't be resolved with confidence even just one forecast period out. Certainly the potential for several more inches of snow along/north of M-28 tonight...whether or not it needs an advisory is another question though travel conditions can be a bit nasty if this evolves as expected. But will opt against it for now with the idea of handling locally heavier snow bands with SPS. Snow showers will also continue downwind of Lake Michigan tonight with a fluffy inch or two across the higher terrain. Precipitation here expected to diminish late as thermodynamic environment becomes more hostile. Like yesterday...consensus forecast PoPs were pretty abysmal for tonight so pumped in some combination of SREF PoPs literally to get snow in the forecast (that's how bad it was).

Widespread (mostly) light snow later Thursday/Thursday night: Low amplitude short wave trough will zip across the upper Lakes Thursday. Strongest dynamic forcing/isentropic ascent spreads across northern Michigan by late morning...and eventually will bring snow to the region especially during the afternoon. Southwest flow off Lake Michigan likely to bring some lake enhanced snowfall into Mackinac county and perhaps parts of Emmet/Charlevoix counties. Not expecting a lot of snow at this point...probably an inch or two especially north of M-72...and possibly a bit more in aforementioned lake enhanced areas.

Temperature roller coaster for the end of the week: mild Friday than back to reality Saturday/Sunday: Friday still looking like the mild day of the week with a narrow thermal ridge extending up into Michigan ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive Friday evening. Highs Friday will likely be somewhat dependent on cloud cover...but 35-40 across eastern Upper and 40s across northern Lower looks reasonable (normal highs range from 29-34F). Cold frontal passage Friday evening will be accompanied by gusty northwest winds (20-30mph with higher gusts downwind of Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay) and temperatures dropping into the teens and lower 20s. Saturday highs will be in the teens above the bridge and 20s across northern Lower...and similar highs on Sunday (though a bit colder).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Light lake effect snow is observed on radar, mainly impacting NW flow areas at the moment. MVFR (to LIFR under the heaviest snow bands) will improve through the afternoon with BLSN continuing through the evening due to winds gusting 15-25 knots, before winds decrease heading into tonight (becoming light and variable after midnight). Expecting conditions to trend VFR through the period with snow showers tapering as drier air works int the region.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.