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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow likely tonight into Tuesday, primarily parts of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills continue through this week. Coldest conditions may be Thursday night into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 258 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Upper-level ridging extends up the Pacific coast towards the Gulf of Alaska. Long wave troffing is over roughly the eastern 2/3 of North America, with numerous lower amplitude waves embedded within the flow. The next disturbance of interest is currently diving across Alberta and Manitoba and will drive a clipper system through the area tonight.

Forecast Details: Chaotic lake effect snows in a light wind regime will be ongoing to start the day, mainly immediately along portions of the local shores of the Great Lakes. These snows will be disrupted/shifted around today as return flow develops ahead of the clipper and short wave upper-level ridging passes across the area. Additional snow accumulation today should be less than 2 inches, with the highest totals where the bands linger the longest.

The center of the clipper system's surface low will pass just north of the forecast area tonight. This system will be moisture starved as there has not been sufficient time for moist return flow to develop in the wake of the significant system tracking up the east coast of the United States. Still, this system should bring light snow accumulations to most of the area, with the highest totals downwind of Lake Michigan where the lingering cold air supports lake enhancement. Expect 1"-3" totals tonight near for northwest Lower near Lake Michigan, with locally higher totals possible due to lake enhancement. Lower totals are expected elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 258 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Ongoing clipper departs the area early in the period. Otherwise, a stagnant pattern persists with upper ridging near the Pacific coast and troffing over the eastern 2/3 of North America. The most notable feature progged to move through the area during the period is a sharp trof Thursday into Friday.

Forecast Details: Cold conditions persist until the weekend with highs no warmer than the teens and lows generally in the single digits either side of zero. The coldest conditions are expected Thursday into Friday with the passage of the above mentioned trof. There won't be much moisture for this system to work with, but the cold conditions will keep lake effect snows going. Expanding ice on the Great Lakes will continue to decrease potential over-lake fetch this week and the cold air mass should tend to favor small snow flake size more often than not. Some moderation in temperatures is expected for the weekend, but temperatures will still be cooler than normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 620 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Lake effect snow showers hang on thru the day, swinging from NW flow this AM to W flow thru 18z, then to WSW flow (greater impacts at PLN and other Lake MI coastal sites)...and eventually SW overnight ahead of a front. MVFR to IFR cigs/visbys hang on, lowest beneath snow showers this morning, with some VFR likely at sites this afternoon before next system rolls in and brings snow chances and at least MVFR back around 3-6z in particular from W to E. Winds to increase this afternoon, esp for APN, MBL, TVC...sustained 10-15kts gusting 15-25kts into the overnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.