textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke/haze through Friday.

- Shower/storm chances return Friday-Saturday. Marginal risk for excessive rain and severe storms (across parts of northern MI) Friday night.

- Cooler next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging encompasses much of the CONUS early this morning, sandwiched between closed upper low pressure over the Pac NW and over Quebec/Newfoundland, with broad troughing from the latter extending across the eastern Great Lakes and New England. Broad surface high pressure extends from northeast Manitoba southward through much of the Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. Near-term concerns continue to revolve around ongoing wildfire smoke, but eventually turn to incoming shower/storm chances Friday - Saturday, and again early next week, as a series of more potent mid-level waves trek across the northern Great lakes.

Forecast Details: Near-surface smoke likely to persist today and likely through much of Friday. Air quality concerns likely to continue through the duration as nearly all smoke-allowing guidance continued to depict sub 3 mile visibilities being common for at least the next 36 hours. This likely to continue to prevent max daytime heating with daytime highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s to mid-80s area-wide...several degrees cooler than what high temps would be progged at without the smoke.

With respect to precip chances moving forward, a more prominent shortwave trough is expected to cross the area on Saturday, with increasing forcing/moisture out ahead. Initial chances for a few showers Friday, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, more numerous showers and storms become likely Friday night into Saturday. Can't entirely rule out stronger storms Friday night, especially if any upstream convective development during the day Friday is able to maintain itself this far east. Gusty winds would be the primary threat, along with locally heavy rainfall.

Latest trends favor drier conditions to wrap up the weekend by later Saturday through Sunday. Additional shower/storm chances return Monday, perhaps into Tuesday, with cooler/below normal temperatures favored Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 600 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Smoke continues to be the primary concern through the entirety of this TAF period. See little evidence for much improvement, with both MVFR to IFR conditions expected from deep layer smoke, with widespread VSBY restrictions expected to continue. Do expect at least some fluctuations as pockets of more dense smoke pass overhead, although timing of such remains very uncertain. Generally light winds continue, sustained AOB 10 kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>349. Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321- 322.