textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow showers through the rest of the week; accumulating snow Thursday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 418 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Pattern beginning to amplify across the continent as 160+kt upper jet buckles a bit over the Pacific. Ridging builds into the PacNW attm...while across the eastern/central US, troughing is beginning to deepen as a PV max digs from the Plains into the Mid MS valley...while at the same time, PV max over Manitoba sinks to the SSE, driven in part by lobe of energy swinging down through Hudson Bay on the back of a 526dam upper low over northern Quebec. Deepest moisture remains trapped across the southern US attm, though abundant Pacific moisture is filtering in upstream...and we do have some decent moisture in the Midwest ahead of the approaching system (pwats in the realm of 0.6 to 0.8in)....with weak stability aloft in the base of the trough over IA. Some deformation influences present over the Upper Midwest between the southward, cold advection progression of the Manitoba system and the subtle but weak northward, warm advection of the IA system...in the vicinity of baroclinic zone aloft that generally stretches from the Canadian Rockies down into the Great Lakes...though surface boundary still remains to our north attm (6z), attendant to the northern stream PV maxima...and much colder air to its north (-8 to -12C at 850mb across northern/central Manitoba/Ontario). Plains system continues to spin up as it moves into the Upper MS Valley, with warm front draped from northern MO into the OH Valley. Weak flow and radiational cooling across northern MI last evening resulted in some patchy fog, despite incoming mid/high clouds.

System over the Plains will continue to trek ESE into the OH Valley today...as lobe of energy continues to dig down out of Ontario/Manitoba, crossing our region overnight. Additional lobes of energy swing through Thursday, reinforcing the cold air and encouraging a stronger pressure gradient over the region, with N to NE winds Thursday into Thursday night as upper low retrogrades toward James Bay/Ontario, likely becoming centered over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic/New England by Friday night. Surface high pressure will try to build in...but presence of the cold upper low over the warm lakes will keep parts of the Upper Great Lakes more unsettled right on into the weekend...perhaps finally clearing out by Saturday night and Sunday as a bit of cutoff energy crosses the southern US. After briefly stalling this weekend...the pattern will begin to move again as strong Pacific jet will keep things under motion. Appears the upstream pattern will amplify again next week...with troughing looking to deepen across the western US, forcing already strengthening ridge axis eastward across the Plains. Setup appears favorable for milder but active/unsettled weather to continue into early next week, depending on how close the storm track ends up to our neck of the woods.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/snow showers today through the rest of the week; accumulating snow Thursday night?.... The two systems sweeping in today should bring some showers to the area, though there is a reasonable chance, esp earlier in the day, for there to be two distinct areas of rain -- one associated with the northern stream feature, more likely over Lake Superior and the EUP, and a second along the confluence zone that should end up just to our south in central MI if current progs hold. As the system to our south passes, though, expecting an inverted surface trough to develop, which should strengthen somewhere over NW Lower, and will likely shift positions with time through tonight. The position of this lined up potentially down US- 131 from TC does signal some concerns for better convergence than expected over there, esp as temps continue to fall aloft...and winds eventually turning to the NE behind the inverted trough. Some snow could mix in, but still thinking the better chance for that will be Thursday night as the next more notable wave moves in with some deeper moisture and cooler temps aloft to enhance whatever light lake effect will be ongoing at that time. Still have concerns for N flow convergence bands to develop downwind of Grand Traverse Bay (as well as some of those north-facing nooks and crannies along the Leelanau Peninsula), signaling potential for higher QPF and snow/rainfall rates...particularly noting signals for decent amounts of low-level CAPE (especially over the lakes). Think this would be the best shot at accumulating snow across the area...where vigorous enough convection could overcome the warm soil temps, and a sloppy couple inches of snow could occur. Some prob guidance still hints at a 20-40 percent chance of 3 inches of snow Thursday night, and even assuming snow-to-liquid ratios remain low (sub-10-to-1), some of the higher QPF outputs (greater than a half inch of liquid equivalent in 6hrs) do have me a bit concerned a few inches of snow could still occur over NW Lower MI by Friday morning. Not sure that snow will necessarily stick around long, as temps should warm above freezing during the day...though the more snow that accumulates overnight, the slower it could be to melt... but it could certainly make the morning commute a bit tricky Friday.

Otherwise...would expect lake effect rain/snow showers to continue through the weekend, even into Sunday with another lobe of PV slipping through despite high pressure trying to work its way in. Quite a bit of uncertainty into early next week, regarding how quickly this feature departs...which will impact how much of a hold high pressure will be able to have on our area and how quickly we can actually quiet down.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 623 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Some BR/FG with IFR/LIFR cigs/visbys thru 14-15z, then improving to VFR till afternoon with incoming SHRA and return of MVFR. IFR to LIFR possible late afternoon/overnight, esp after 0z. RA likely starts first at MBL around 14z, could be -RA at CIU this morning but better chances for RA will be after 18z and esp tonight, when SN could mix in (esp CIU). Winds VRB under 5kts but eventually turn to N late evening (NE possible for APN/CIU), increasing to 10-15kts with gusts 20-30kts late tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-342-344>346.