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KEY MESSAGES

- Bit cooler today with plenty of sunshine

- Return to above normal temperatures to end this week

- Next chance for showers arrives Saturday, then especially again early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Broad mid/upper level troughing across the Great Lakes early this morning, part of rather aggressive northern stream flow on north side of elongated southern Conus upper level ridge/heat dome. Stalled baroclinic axis well to our south across the lower Ohio Valley...the eastern extent of an active thermal gradient extending from deep low pressure vicinity James Bay. Large area of slow east moving high pressure dominating our surface conditions, bringing with it partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and dropping temperatures to more normal levels in the 50s to lower 60s.

Northern Conus flow regime will continue to remain quite progressive through this weekend right into next week. This will bring a fairly typical early fall weather pattern to northern Michigan, with dry weather interrupted at times by passing waves and their attendant showers.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing those occasional shower concerns through the entirety of the forecast period.

Details:

Not much too talk about today through Friday as high pressure continues to remain in control, bringing with it mostly sunny/clear skies. Despite this sun, temperatures today will cool to more normal mid-September readings in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Should have about ideal conditions for a good nocturnal temperature response tonight with those clear skies and winds that go light to calm. Easily expect most of our colder interior locations to dip down into the 40s. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see some of our ice-box locations within the Au Sable River valley make a run into the upper 30s. Simple airmass modification and developing southwest return flow under those still mostly sunny skies will help temperatures recover quickly on Friday, with highs well back up into the 70s.

Strong shortwave trough passing well to our north looks to drag our next cold front through the area Saturday. Best forcing along this front passes well to our north, and deepest tropical moisture feed remains tied up with that Ohio Valley baroclinic axis. Expect a few progressive moving showers to fire across our area on Saturday (best chance likely remaining north of the Big Bridge), but definitely not expecting anything significant.

At least some evidence our weather may turn a bit more active later Sunday into early next work week as next wave rotates up through the northern Lakes into southern Canada. Nice axis of Pacific moisture expected to accompany this wave, with more Gulf of America moisture influx as well as deep southerly flow propels north into the region. System could be a decent rain-maker for some areas across the region, with initial moisture-rich isentropic upglide yielding to rather impressive cold frontal dynamics. Just something to monitor as we head into early next week.

Exact temperature trends this weekend into next week will be highly dependent on those cloud and shower trends. With that said, not seeing any evidence of any significant bouts of excessive warmth or cold...expecting temperatures to fall well within the range of what is considered normal heading through the middle of September.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions expected today into at least this evening, with just a few higher based cumulus and some passing higher level clouds at times. Will need to watch for the development of some very shallow mist/fog later tonight/early Friday morning. Northwest winds today, at times a touch gusty. Winds go light/calm tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LSZ321.