textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Quieter and milder today into Tuesday

- Rain chances Wednesday-Wed night

- Sharply colder Thursday-Friday with lake effect snow/rain in places

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Vigorous shortwave just ne of Georgian Bay will accelerate eastward, moving thru the base of a broader upper trof over eastern Canada. Shortwave ridging builds into the northern lakes today, in advance of another digging shortwave that gives us a glancing blow tonight. As ridging in the western US/Canada becomes more amplified this week, more energy drives southward into the central/eastern Conus. This will deepen troffing in the Great Lakes later this week, and allow a system to organize in the east half of the country Wed-Thu. Much colder air is expected here behind this system for Thu-Fri.

Sct lake effect rain showers continue early this morning, though coverage/intensity have been decreasing. Expect precip to continue to wane early this morning, though clouds will be slower to erode. Clouds associated with our next shortwave trof will return to the north late today, and a small chance for a showers will be mentioned for eastern upper MI for part of this evening.

Otherwise mainly quiet tonight into Tue night. However, pops increase Wed-Thu. The primary surface low track is looking to be well to our south, from southern IA to southern OH. But a secondary e-w fgen zone, more poleward than the primary one, will be working south across our region mid-week. Moisture and precip chances will be increasing Wed/Wed night, especially in northern lower MI. This is also when colder air begins to push in, with potential lake enhanced precip thus a factor. However, the expected ne to n fetch is not a favorable one, except for relatively small spots in ne and nw lower MI. What precip we get will be mostly rain Wed/Wed night, but become snowier by the very end of the week.

Above normal temps today and Tuesday. Sharply cooler for Thu- Fri, with Wed a transition day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Either VFR, or becoming VFR, for terminals through about 19-21Z this afternoon. CIU has the best chance for staying socked in a little longer. Everywhere remains VFR into Tuesday, only exception CIU with an introduction of MVFR CIGs for a brief period Tuesday morning. Winds generally on the lighter side from the west or southwest this afternoon, remaining a little elevated through the night as winds aloft increase. Breezy conditions are anticipated as well beginning after sunrise and remaining into the afternoon, especially PLN and APN.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.