textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog will continue through the morning for much of northern MI. Visibilities should improve by noon today

- Mild fall weather continues into the weekend, with areas of fog during the overnight and morning hours

- Cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

An amplified -PNA upper patterns exists across the CONUS through the weekend, which is resulting in mild fall temperatures and dry conditions for northern MI.

Current satellite and surface observations depict widespread dense fog over much of the Great Lakes region this morning. The 00z RAOB shows an ideal radiational cooling profile, with surface charts indicating that a surface high pressure continues to settle in to the east of the state this morning. Light east winds just above the nocturnal surface inversion are drifting low stratus and fog to the west, continuing the spread inland and covering most of northern MI. With the trends of this fog and stratus, there will likely be enough around to slow the lifting and clearing of it after the sun rises. Eventually, southeast winds and late morning sunshine should lift and scattered fog and low clouds out - which is expected to be by noon for most of northern lower and eastern upper. Some low clouds could hang right along and/or just off shore of the coast into the early afternoon, however overall visibilities should improve by noon. Light south to southeast winds and mostly sunny skies will be seen this afternoon. High temperatures will warm into the mid 60s for NW lower, and low 60s for NE lower, with high 50s for eastern upper. NE lower could see slightly warmer temperatures if clouds dissipate quicker than expected.

Tonight, similar conditions (ideal radiational cooling, light winds, and the warm lakes/residual moisture in the environment) will led to another round of fog and low stratus. A wind shift to the south and increasing mid to high level clouds over NW lower should keep widespread dense fog confined to NE lower and eastern upper.

Saturday, the persisting upper ridge over the eastern CONUS (and MI) will track precipitation chances up and over it, into CAN. Mid to high clouds will be seen at times with light winds and continued mild temperatures. A cold front will approach early Sunday, brining slight chances for showers which are favored in the U.P. at this time due to the boundary weakening as it moves across the state to the south and east. However, a 1035mb surface high pressure will seep into the area Monday, cooling temperatures for early next week. High temperatures will likely remain in the 40s and 50s for Monday and Tuesday over most of northern MI. Slight chances for light rain exist Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave races towards MI (on top of a beaten down upper high). Ensembles show little agreement on the timing of this feature next week, leading to overall lower precipitation chances spread out early week through mid week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

IFR/LIFR cigs and vis at all terminals due to widespread FG and low stratus. These conditions will persist through 14z, then bounce around as the fog and stratus slowly lift and scatter. Most terminals should see a return to VFR cigs and vis by 16z with KCIU as the exception seeing MVFR cigs linger through 07z. Winds will be light (AOB 10kts) and from the S/SE. Chances for FG/BR impacts return after 03z for most terminals. More uncertainty for KTVC/KMBL on the return of impactful cigs and vis due to high clouds moving overhead late in the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086-087-095-096-098-099. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LHZ345-347>349. Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.