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DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-advertised low pressure sits over southern IA early this afternoon, progged to trek northeast to northern Lake Michigan by 06z and into Ontario by 12z Friday. Fairly widespread precipitation, of varying intensity, continues across northern MI with sfc temperatures ever so slowly creeping up from south to north owing to strengthening LLJ, despite the system's warm front still positioned downstate. By this evening, WAA continues, most notably across northern lower, with increasing elevated instability in a highly sheared environment -- ultimately increasing chances for pre-cold frontal isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

A generally quieter day anticipated on Friday; however, hot on the heels of today's system is another area of low pressure set to cruise across the nation's midsection into the western Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. Colder air wraps back into northern MI for Saturday night through the end of the weekend. Gusty northwest winds and snow showers likely as well, most notably in the snow belts. Below normal temperatures and at least occasional snow chances continue through the end of the forecast period early- mid next week.

Forecast Details:

Freezing rain to rain today: Widespread precipitation continues across northern MI with a myriad of precipitation types ongoing from north to south. Primarily a snow/sleet/freezing rain mix the farther north you go in the UP, transitioning to mainly fzra across the Straits into north-central and parts of northeast lower MI, and of course over to all rain with temperatures at least a degree or two above freezing over much of the southwestern third of the forecast area. Low-level warming trend expected to continue this afternoon with primarily rain anticipated across all of northern lower by 22- 23z/6-7pm. Lingering icing/wintry mix over the U.P. into the early- mid evening hours before slow warming expected to continue there as well. Additional icing and related impacts this afternoon expected most prominently near and north of M-32. Many of these areas near and north of M-32 have already reported between 0.20 - 0.25" of flat icing on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines. Localized power outages and damage to tree limbs likely to continue in these areas prior to temperatures moderating through the evening.

Severe weather threat this evening - tonight: Elevated instability already working its way into southern reaches of the forecast area this afternoon, expected to propel northward later this afternoon and evening. Latest trends support up to 800 J/kg MU CAPE. MLCAPE progged around 400-500 J/kg progged to fold in this evening, especially near/south of M-72. Combined with ample 0-6 km bulk shear in excess of 45 kts, and these areas near/south of M-72 feature the highest chances for isolated to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards, including a low end tornado threat. These chances diminish from west to east during the overnight hours.

Friday night - Saturday precipitation: Hot on the heels of today's system, renewed widespread precip chances return later Friday night and especially into Saturday. For much of northern lower, this looks like primarily a rain event; however, probabilities for mixed precipitation/freezing rain increase to some degree across the interior higher terrain of northern lower, but more so across the Straits, and especially the eastern U.P. Latest probabilistic guidance favors another round of a tenth to quarter of an inch of ice across the eastern U.P. with non-zero probabilities for icing to exceed a quarter of an inch.

Colder with occasional snow chances late weekend into early next week: As Saturday's system treks northeast into Ontario/Quebec Saturday night, colder air expected to pretty quickly wrap in on the backside of this system accompanied by increasingly gusty northwest winds for Sunday. Increasing chances for lake enhanced snow showers through this time, most prominently in the typical snow belts of eastern upper and northwest lower. Occasional snow chances and below normal temperatures continue into early next week with another clipper on Monday perhaps renewing more numerous snow showers across a broader area of northern MI.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 647 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Widespread IFR to MVFR producing low clouds and vis restrictions expected to continue into Friday morning. Any lingering freezing rain will transition to just rain this evening before tapering off overnight. Could still hear a few rumbles of thunder this evening across northern lower taf locations, but nothing too significant expected. Gradual improvement at all locations heading through Friday, with more widespread VFR conditions by later in the afternoon. Gusty southeast winds this evening become west and eventually northwest later tonight and Friday. Strong low level jet will produce widespread low level wind shear much of tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Ice Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.