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KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy/ areas of fog tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Dry and warming temperatures through Tuesday with rain chances returning late Tuesday night - Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures return midweek along with dry weather as we head into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Quiet and dry weather remains the story through Tuesday as the surface high gradually shifts east and return flow develops. Mostly sunny skies and southwest winds will help temperatures climb into the 70s Tuesday, with some areas potentially reaching the upper 70s. Despite the warmer afternoons, overnight temperatures will continue to fall back into the 40s. Patchy/ areas of fog look likely late tonight into Tuesday morning, particularly across interior locations.

The pattern begins to change Tuesday night into Wednesday as a northern-stream wave moves into the Great Lakes and pulls deeper moisture northward. Shower chances will increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday spreading west to east, with the better chances coming late Wednesday into Thursday as the wave and associated boundary track through. The system is currently favored to pass through primarily during the nighttime hours, while relatively dry low and mid-levels should limit how efficiently precipitation reaches the ground, especially farther east. Northwest Lower and eastern Upper appear to have the better opportunity for measurable rainfall, with guidance suggesting medium chances (50 to 70 percent) for at least 0.50", and low to medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for locally higher amounts around 1" possible mainly along the shoreline of Lake Michigan. Lesser amounts are expected the farther east one goes.

The midweek wave then gradually departs Thursday night into Friday, allowing the pattern to turn quieter once again. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the system, with highs settling back into the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 40s or cooler through the weekend. Some lingering low-end shower chances could continue into Friday, but with high pressure building back in, ample dry time is expected and looks to continue as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 105 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

MVFR cigs possible this afternoon; should flip between SCT and BKN, more likely BKN for CIU/PLN. Prevailing light N/NNE winds with lake (onshore breezes) this afternoon; winds remain light/variable overnight and slowly become more S with time Tuesday. Expect fog tonight, developing perhaps as early as 2-4z, with IFR to LIFR conditions likely at most, if not all, TAF sites, and could a little longer to dissipate (closer to 13-15z).

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.