textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers possible today, maybe Tuesday?

- Better chance of rain/storms returns Wednesday into Thursday

- Warmer next weekend/early next week?

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Generally zonal flow across the CONUS, with several perturbations in the flow, especially over the Midwest into the Central Plains, where the bulk of the convective activity and deeper moisture (pwats greater than 1.5in) are currently focused...along a baroclinic zone stretching from KS/OK through MO and into the OH Valley as of 3z. Elongated upper troughing across much of southern Canada, focused over Alberta, with a trough axis sneaking back into the PacNW...and also Ontario (557dm upper low north of Lake Superior)...with 100+kt upper jet exiting the Great Lakes region. Confluence zone and thermal gradient over Lake Superior/Yoop ahead of a shortwave trough from northern WI to aforementioned upper low...with a broken line of scattered showers from northern WI to the central UP to show for it at 3z. More notable radar returns and activity are to our south in the right entrance region of the upper jet, with a surface low over IL at 3z: an east-west expanse of stratiform rain from SW WI across southern MI (signals for some fgen enhancement across the state line counties), associated with sharp gradient in pwats near the US-10/M- 55 corridor with pwats around 1.0in or so south of here. Convective activity stretches largely along aforementioned baroclinic zone from OH into the Central Plains. High pressure trying to ooze into the Upper Midwest with some drier air...resulting in generally easterly surface winds out there.

Upper low will continue to spin away to the east/northeast today...while some PV associated with activity to our south slips across southern Lower MI this morning...with surface low trekking eastward with time today. Subtle 500mb CAA into the EUP/Tip of the Mitt this morning could result in some lingering shower activity through midday, but this should begin to wane as heights begin to rise from west to east this afternoon. Another subtle lobe of energy pivots down toward northern Michigan tonight into Tuesday morning...as PV slips eastward into the Upper MS Valley, with current expectation that the latter feature will stay to our south across the OH Valley again...though broad troughing should overtake the area. High pressure will be involved...with northerly surface flow...but can't rule out some activity during the day, particularly with diurnal heating and lake breeze convergence. Alberta PV expected to loosely pinwheel into the Upper Midwest by Wednesday morning...ultimately settling into the Upper Great Lakes into the latter half of the work week, which should keep some activity present as well as keep things on the cooler side still. Going into late week...upper low digs into the west coast of the continent...ultimately driving western ridging (and any embedded PV maxes) eastward Friday...with ridge axis trying to buckle northward into the Upper Midwest going into the weekend...though quite a bit of uncertainty in where the axis will end up. West Coast upper low could be somewhat progressive...driving another round of surface pressure falls across the central US this weekend into early next week...though how close to us any associated activity gets is still up in the air (pun intended).

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lower chances for Showers Today/Tuesday...think there will be some continued shower activity along what is left of the boundary this morning and into this afternoon as it slips southward...particularly this afternoon across NE Lower where lake breezes should boost convergence and where surface warming should be a little better. However...think it will be a struggle to get more than around a hundred joules of cape or so today...noting a strong subsidence inversion in the mid-levels (around 600-650mb) which should keep activity a little more tame...and likely keep ice nucleation from occurring aloft (i.e., limiting thunder potential as well). Expect some convective activity especially upstream of us tonight...and will have to see if any of it can reach us and/or throw mid/high clouds into our area to suppress any pop-up activity Tuesday. Tuesday should be similar to today with another subtle disturbance slipping through with a subsidence inversion around 650mb or so...though a little less moist than today, and would expect anything that does develop to be a little more nebulous and driven much more by things like lake breeze boundaries, noting flow should be lighter through the column than today.

Better chance for shower/storm activity midweek...think return flow should pick up Tuesday night as next perturbation slips into the Upper Midwest; left exit region of incoming jet should hang out and potentially aid in some synoptic forcing for ascent through Thursday, till shortwave moves on out Thursday night into Friday. Antecedent dry conditions could slow down activity initially on Wednesday...but increasing theta-e advection should ultimately result in precip chances returning by Wednesday morning from west to east. Would not be entirely surprised if activity were to split across the area as it comes in Wednesday, with some activity remaining north, closer to better PVA and difluence aloft with the shortwave...and to our south, where things should be more moist/unstable. Looking for some potential mid-level dry air to sneak in Wednesday afternoon, which could introduce some convective instability along/ahead of whatever subtle boundary is present to our west...with signals for this feature to slowly amble eastward through the night. Appears we should have some pressure falls and/or a surface low over the area Wednesday night into Thursday, likely becoming a little more robust of a feature as additional energy digs into the back of the trough axis. Seemingly stereotypical scenario for us would be for things to quiet down overnight and more robust activity to remain to our south and east during the day Thursday when diurnal heating /should/ be better. However...incoming PV niblet suggests potential for weakening stability aloft, and if low- levels remain warm enough (even with a shallow nocturnal inversion), potential for elevated instability, which could be realized as surface-based instability as early as the morning hours if we mix out quick enough...and incoming PV niblet would theoretically support a secondary trough axis in the afternoon to aid in focusing any convective effort. With elevated instability around overnight in the presence of a potential PV niblet...certainly think there could be chances for activity during Wednesday night as well.

Potentially warmer this weekend/early next week?...signals for ridging to return this weekend into early next week ahead of a trough axis digging into the western/central US do point towards warming across the central US/Midwest. Whether this gets to us or not is unclear attm, and will depend on just where that ridge axis sets up, as well as how robust it is. Ridge axis more directly overhead or slightly to our west, combined with being more robust/amplified, would be a better signal for heat. Attm, there are some signals for the ridge axis to be less robust and a little slower, which could signal potential for activity to try to overtop the ridge at some point this weekend/early next week, whether related to warm advection ahead of the approaching system or related to separate disturbances tracking through the flow. Either way, this could thoroughly muddle the heat potential for our area with rounds of convection and/or mid/high clouds. Overall, anticipate a warming trend for now...but take the current forecast temps for next weekend with a grain of salt.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Mainly VFR, but will keep an eye out for fog late tonight. Band of showers has weakened as it crossed eastern upper MI in the pre-dawn hours. Not impossible for a shower or two to regenerate this morning, with a better chance in ne lower MI this afternoon and evening. APN has the best chance of seeing -SHRA, but even there that chance is small, and restrictions are still unlikely. Expecting less cloud cover tonight than this morning, which would give us a better chance for fog late. For now have MVFR/IFR fog returning to MBL very late tonight (the one site that had fog the previous night).

Nnw to n winds today, becoming lighter tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.