textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Some morning fog, as well as late tonight

- Otherwise warm and mostly dry/quiet into the start of the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Outside of patchy fog, northern MI wx continues to be quiet. Some layered cloud is seen well upstream, over far northern MN and adjoining parts of Canada. This is associated with a digging shortwave, which will cross northern MI late today. Warm advection will increase ahead of this feature, and before a cold front moves in late today. Though available forcing is reasonable, moisture is not.

Per sat imagery, early morning fog is currently concentrated in central/western Chippewa Co, and to a lesser degree ne lower MI. This will burn off this morning, but will locally inhibit diurnal heating at least for a bit. Models have a smidge of MuCape this morning near the MN Arrowhead, but not any closer than that. A band of sct showers is likely to pass north of eastern upper MI late this afternoon/ early this evening. Certainly not impossible for us to squeeze out a sprinkle or shower in the eastern UP late today, Chippewa Co in particular. But this chance remains too small to mention.

Cold front settles to the MI/OH border tonight, with trailing high pressure passing just north of Lk Superior. Post-frontal pressure gradient will be tighter in the north than south, which makes the return of fog tonight less likely in the north. Patchy/areas of fog are possible elsewhere, especially in nw/n central lower MI. We won't quite as warm behind the front Thursday as today, but still quiet.

500mb ridge axis will be building and sharpening into the Great Lakes area Friday/Saturday. Quiet and somewhat warmer again. An increasingly active northern stream storm track, up toward James and southern Hudson Bay, will tamp down the ridge late in the weekend, and drape a cold front into northern parts of the area. A legitimate chance for showers exists for the Straits area and eastern upper MI late Sat night into Sunday morning. Additional pieces of northern energy will further suppress the ridge after that. Some small chances for showers early next week, but the bigger story is a substantial cooldown. Some highs will not escape the 40s, especially in the eastern UP. (Note that this is only a few degrees cooler than climo.)

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Dealing with some fog again this morning, and some additional fog is likely late tonight. APN/MBL have has the highest impact fog at times this morning, with less fog at CIU/PLN, and none at TVC. Fog will improve over the next few hours, with VFR for the rest of the day and evening. Expect MVFR to IFR fog to return to MBL/APN/PLN late tonight. Light sw breeze today.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.