textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow (E UP) and a wintry mix of precipitation (N lower) is expected later Monday into early Tuesday.

- Light lake effect snow lingers into mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 211 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Little shake and bake in the atmosphere on Monday as one short wave sling shots in front of the main trough across Manitoba/Ontario. Cannot rule out a few light snow showers as a result that skim northern portions of the eastern UP during the first half of Monday. Thereafter, warm advection begins to increase as a jet streak aloft impinges from the west. This will result in the potential for light snow during the afternoon across northern portions of the region, generally Tip of the Mitt and northward. Warm advection continues into the overnight in response to the approaching main wave, along with differential pos vort advection. Best combination of lift will be roughly from the Tip of the Mitt and northward Monday night into early Tuesday, resulting in the most persistent and steadiest precipitation. Snow, or mostly snow, is expected farther to the north (Straits into E UP) and a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain across northern lower Michigan. This will be a quick burst of precipitation for most Monday night into early Tuesday with implications for the morning commute on Tuesday.

Trough continues to dig southeast across the Great Lakes region through Tuesday along with sfc low pressure system across Ontario. Consequently, cold advection it expected through the day on Tuesday. Any lingering steadier snow during the morning hours will transition to lake effect/induced, generally on the lighter side.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Wintry Impacts:

Snow will be one of two main concerns Monday night into Tuesday, freezing rain being the other. Snow potential will focus where the deeper lift resides, which will be across the Tip of the Mitt but especially eastern upper Michigan. Most guidance shows a quick 2-4/3-5" of snow with ratios likely close to 10:1-11:1, slicker than normal, which will impact the Tuesday morning commute. HREF probs suggest a medium to high potential (~50-80%) for 3" of snow across the E UP, lower south of the Straits. Little bit of a question in regards to how much snow falls from the Tip of the Mitt out towards Alpena, but could see a few inches there, where the lower probs (10-40%) for 3" of snow reside. Across the rest of northern lower, lighter precipitation is expected with warm nose nosing in aloft. Thus, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and some snow is expected. Most likely scenario at this time looks to be a glaze for most across northern lower, which is enough for concerns. There are some uncertainties in regards to the location and spatial extent of the freezing rain potential, although conceptually at least some freezing rain makes sense. Will issue a winter weather advisory tonight for the E UP, which has the best potential for accumulating snow based on the synoptic lift coupled with most consistent model guidance signals for higher precipitation. Farther south may very well need an advisory for wintry mix as well, largely for freezing rain accums of a glaze, but will ultimately leave this portion to the next shift.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 211 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Light lake effect snow showers will linger into mid week within a modestly unstable/cold environment. Not expecting a big concern with this activity, although breezy conditions are expected. Temps do cool back into the mid 20s for highs behind the upper trough and within the cool northwest flow aloft.

Quiet conditions anticipated late week and into at least the first half of the weekend with high temps in the 20s and 30s. Attention turns to a quick moving zonal trough and subsequent low pressure system gliding across the southern half of the CONUS. Some of the ENS guidance shows this feature remaining to the south across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic due to the increasing upper height anomalies across the Great Lakes - southeast Canada. Of course, the orientation of the upper heights and areas of weakness, assuming any develops, will be one of a few factors that ultimately determine how far north this piece of energy/low pressure system can meridionally lift.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR thru Monday morning. An incoming clipper system will start to impact the region by late Monday. Clouds will increase and lower thru the day, with MVFR cigs expected at CIU by mid afternoon. Further south, spotty mixed wintry precip develops in the evening, most likely SN/PL at APN and -FZRA at TVC. VFR with no precip before 06Z at MBL.

Light winds tonight, southerly winds get a touch breezy on Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None.