textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers return Wednesday, with lake effect showers for the rest of the week

- Accumulating snow possible Thursday night

- Colder to wrap up the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Generally progressive flow across the US attm...with upper ridge axis centered near/just east of the Rockies and troughing generally over the Eastern US in the northern stream of the flow, though there is some ridging ahead of the PV max diving through the Upper Great Lakes this morning. In the southern stream, closed low stalled out over TX. Additional energy churning its way into the western US/PacNW given strong jet out across the Pacific. Over the CONUS...100+kt upper jet stretches from the Dakotas down into the Great Lakes; a secondary jet max noted over the Yoop this morning along the BCZ aloft with that deeper 500mb shortwave (tropopause dipping down toward 400-500mb as the wave crosses Lake Superior)...and height falls are amplifying with this latter feature over Lake Superior and southern Ontario. Some mid-level moisture pooling along/ahead of the wave and attendant cold front stretching from the UP back into the Central Plains (even a touch of weak stability aloft over western Ontario), though quite a bit of dry air below 700mb on our 0z/10 sounding...and not surprised that not much has reached the ground across our area (more abundant radar returns are well into Ontario as of 5z). NW-SE oriented low-level BCZ tightening up over central Canada attm...but still some cold advection into the Upper Great Lakes on a NW 30-40kt 850mb jet. Some very subtle moisture advection on SW flow ahead of the front across N Lower...but already seeing winds turn around to the W across WI as of 6z.

Troughing over eastern Canada looks to retrograde this week as lobe of energy currently over the PacNW exits the ridge a bit early and digs into the Mid MS Valley Wednesday. Attm, center of the closed low will be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes/Ontario for the remainder of the workweek...only slowly exiting stage right going into this weekend and early next week as another round of troughing digs into the western US and generally forces the ridge to build eastward into the MS Valley/Midwest again...while also sending some energy through the ridge axis across the central US. Bottom line...cold (seasonable) air is coming...and with it, shots of lake effect shower activity until high pressure can build in enough to sufficiently squelch lake activity again, though this may take quite a bit of time, especially this time of year with the lakes still around +10-12C.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Showers return Wednesday, with lake effect showers for the rest of the week...Not impossible we could see some NW/WNW-flow lake effect showers today/tonight, as temps aloft should be sufficient to produce overlake instability...though we should see increasing subsidence aloft as the jet max moves into the Lower Great Lakes and New England. Best shot of any showers will be across the EUP and Tip of the Mitt where low-level moisture is a bit more notable, esp this afternoon and into this evening, and especially if a subtle boundary draping in is able to fire anything off. Slug of mid-level moisture looks to arrive late tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of that lobe of energy tracking through the Mid MS Valley/Midwest, and expect this is when better chances will start to increase, sometime after 6-9z. Think lake enhancement is a good bet with this system, noting temps aloft will change very little during the day, and continue to fall Wednesday night with a reinforcing blow of northern stream energy digging in. Appears there could be some funky sort of inverted surface trough in our part of the region as the primary surface low passes to our southwest, which suggests some uncertainty in wind direction and subsequent focus for lake enhancement...but could otherwise serve as a focus for convergence...during the day Wednesday. Not impossible some flakes could mix in with onset of precip Wednesday morning as there should be some evaporative cooling (if it doesn't entirely nix the precip chances initially), but think this round will be primarily rain.

Wednesday night, winds turn around to the north and generally remain from the north through the next few days, focusing lake effect shower potential along our coasts into the weekend, if not beyond. Think the best chance of mixing with or transitioning over to all snow will be after 0z Thursday, and esp after 6z Thursday, as temps at the surface fall further to allow flakes to survive a little better...though not impossible it could start a little sooner, especially in the interior higher terrain.

Accumulating snow Thursday night...already persistent north flow lake effect will be enhanced as some deeper moisture pivots down into the area behind a secondary trough that will bring even cooler air into the region. This idea suggests a better shot at snow, and potentially accumulating snow for some areas where bands stick around for several hours. Signals for some low-level instability indicate potential for vigorous shower activity, further lending credence to the idea that snow could accumulate faster than it could melt, despite soil temps still in the upper 40s. Would not be entirely surprised if some area in the higher terrain near/south of Traverse City ended up with a first snowman before Gaylord this year. Stay tuned.

Colder late week...Sub 540dam 500mb low in the vicinity for the end of the week, whether it is overhead or nearly so, and temps aloft likely well below zero at 850mb, suggests seasonably cool temperatures for early/mid November. Highs look to remain in the low- mid 40s, but could struggle to break 40F in some locales that end up cloudier, and particularly for the EUP/interior northern Lower...but could start to creep up after the weekend if that upstream ridging builds in as currently expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 517 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR expected, but CIU/PLN/APN could go MVFR briefly this morning into early afternoon with low chance for shower/sprinkle. MVFR to VFR cigs expected tonight but have some concerns for fog/BR and visby restrictions, esp early in the night. Rain chances move in very late, if not entirely after this taf period, but likely still hanging onto VFR cigs till sometime after 12z. Winds W to NW 10- 15kts (gust 20-30kts) should taper off toward evening and could become variable overnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ341- 342. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LMZ344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.