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KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds and lake effect snow tapering into this evening.

- Another round of mainly light snow/blustery winds late tonight/Saturday.

- Gusty winds and light lake effect snow Sat night/early Sunday.

- A thaw is likely by mid-late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Lake effect snow is trending weaker and less organized over the last hour. Still some respectable snow/wind combo impacts (PLN and CIU have both 1/2SM recently, with most of that vsby reduction from blowing rather than falling snow). But those sites are more the exception than the rule (and have shown very recent improvement). Winds will also gradually weaken heading into this evening (and abruptly back southerly tonight). The winter wx headlines can probably drop off at 4pm. Wind advisory will stay up, though concerns linger mainly in ne lower MI (APN gusted to 42 mph in the last hour).

Backing winds will bring milder air to the region, initially more so at 850mb than at the surface. 850mb temps climb to -5C in nw lower MI toward midnight, and across most of the area overnight. Synoptic snow with some lake enhancement returns to northern MI, mainly near and north of M-72, overnight into Saturday. Pops/snow will be highest the further north you go. 2-4" expected in eastern upper MI late tonight into Saturday, up to 3" northern lower (highest in the tip of the mitt).

Lows tonight will be in the teens (perhaps high single digits near the Sault), and relatively early. Temps rise a bit late tonight. Highs Saturday near 30f to the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Roller coaster temps continue into early next week, but not beyond. Quick-moving clipper shortwave slides across the area Sat evening. Behind that, a few weak impulses are possible in the wnw flow aloft that persists into next week. But the main story is (after that clipper departs) steadily building heights across the CONUS and southern Canada (excepting the west coast). In the interim, sharply colder air makes another brief return on Sunday, with below-normal temps and some lake effect snow. But we quickly recover out of that, with Monday a transition day before a longer period of above-normal temps kicks in Tuesday.

Most of the clipper synoptic precip will be exiting Sat evening. Wnw- flow (northern lower) or nw-flow (eastern UP) kicks in behind that though, as 850mb temps tumble some 5-15C just early Sat night. Blustery surface winds as well again Sat night/early Sunday, though the pressure gradient relaxes dramatically during the day. Main concerns for significant travel impacts look to be in the eastern UP, with a longer fetch and deeper moisture producing better conditions for lake effect snow. 1-3" snows Sat night/Sunday morning seem a possibility in western/central Chip Co. Deeper subsidence/ drying, and departure of 850mb thermal trof core, will allow snows to diminish during the day Sunday.

Next round of warm advection will likely result in light snow lifting north across the region Monday-Mon night. Precip chances in the warming/moistening air late in the week (beginning Christmas Eve night) could have a drizzly component at times (saw plenty of that the last several days). Perhaps a little light freezing rain/ freezing drizzle is possible with the initial moisture push Christmas Eve night. Otherwise, any p-type is liquid late this week.

Max temps Sunday 20f to the mid 20s, then recovering into the 30s or warmer for Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 648 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

NW winds to diminish this evening and quickly switch to S/SSE overnight, increasing to 10-15kts sustained after 4-6z, esp toward 10-12z. Winds aloft increase as well, with 30-40kt LLJ around 1500- 2500ft after 6z; generally have included this idea as gusts but could end up as low-level wind shear (have this idea explicitly at TVC). Visbys/cigs likely to remain MVFR/VFR this evening with lingering SHSN but could see SN pick back up after 4-6z with mid/high clouds moving in. Best shot at IFR cigs/visbys likely at CIU, PLN overnight into Sat AM; expect a burst of snow around 15-18z with passage of cold front...when winds turn back around to the WSW/W for afternoon with potential for gusts 30-40kts or better in the afternoon...which could drop visbys below current expectations. Not impossible some low-stratus tries to form at APN tonight which could reduce cigs to LIFR if it happens.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-342. Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.