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KEY MESSAGES

- Likely light snowfall Monday into Mon night, with some mixed precip chances.

- Above normal temps for much of the upcoming week.

- Next significant precip chances Thursday night and beyond.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Patchy lake effect flurries continue to slowly diminish this afternoon. In fact, some areas (especially CAD/HTL/Standish in our south) are enjoying some mid-afternoon sunshine on this shortest day of the year. Partial clearing will reach as far north as M-68 this evening.

However, very late tonight, cloud cover will increase again from the sw. Increasingly deep sw flow will gradually become more moist, allowing cloud bands to develop into western lower MI. Actual precip should wait until after 7am/12Z, and in fact have tended slow onset of snow. But southwest areas will see light snow get going by mid morning Monday, and later in the day across at least the rest of northern lower MI (top-down saturation). The chance for significant snow to push into eastern upper MI looks much less certain for now. Some warmer coastal locales may see rain mix in at times, but in the interior just snow is forecast. Accums of up to 2" remain likely, with the highest amounts in the higher terrain of northern lower MI (where SLRs will be higher than the warmer coastlines).

Min temps tonight 10 to 20f. Highs Monday in the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

As advertised, 500mb heights will be broadly rising in the CONUS for much of the week. However, a shortwave making landfall in the Pac NW tonight will crest this broad ridge, and eventually skirt by the northern lakes late Tuesday before amplifying/digging toward New England. This will tamp down our heights for a bit. Late in the week, surface high pressure passing near James Bay will backdoor shallow colder air into our region. The Holiday period has been trending less warm in our forecasts over the past couple of days; this is partially why.

Sporadic chances for synoptic precip will be be with Monday night (in broad but not overly strong warm/moist advection). This is mostly snow to start the evening. The mid levels dry out in southern and central areas during the night, which may support some light freezing drizzle chances. Moisture extends up to 800mb/5k ft in the HTL area per Nam Bufr soundings. So chances for light freezing drizzle develop northward Monday night, mainly near/south of M-68, and mainly past the southern periphery of the gradually exiting precip shield.

By Tuesday, mixed rain snow showers are confined to the eastern UP, even as passing low pressure well to our north swings us into cold advection. Surface high pressure moving overhead Tue night/Wed morning will quiet things down for a bit. In fact, better precip chances look to hold off until late Thursday evening and beyond, when warm/moist advection over top of the back door cold front to our south increases. This starts as snow north and rain south, with snow becoming more prevalent with time.

Highs in the 30s will be most common. However, Tuesday, Christmas, and Friday could all see warmer (more southerly) locations in our area push 40f. And some 20s for high in the eastern UP Friday onward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Currently MVFR cigs and vis are present at all terminals due to lingering -SHSN. Generally NW winds of 10 to 15kts with G20kts are weakening and backing for a few sites at the beginning of the period (KTVC/KMBL). This trend will continue to spread east for the other terminals through 21Z. -SHSN will continue to diminish from west to east through 00Z, with most sites becoming VFR by 02Z. Non zero chances for -SN over KPLN/KAPN could pop up from 20Z thru 02Z, however left impacts out of the TAF due to chances being too low. VRB AOB 10kts winds for most sites tonight as winds slowly veer ahead of the next system. S/SW winds of 5 to 15kts for terminals after 12Z as -SN impacts will spread from west to each thru the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ347- 348. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.