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KEY MESSAGES

- Snow chances and gusty winds resulting in brief low visibilities and minor accumulations today

- Colder temperatures settle in for tonight and Tuesday

- Rain chances and warmer temperatures return mid to late week, with brief rain/snow mix

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Forecast: Current radar and satellite depict patchy light snow showers over parts of the western U.P. and central/SW L.P. A typical PNA pattern exists in the upper level flow, with a few embedded shortwaves rotating around the trough (with an an axis over the eastern Great Lakes region). These shortwaves are sparking some of the light precip/clouds around the region this morning, as WV satellite and 00Z RAOBs show some mid to upper level moisture to work it. Closer to the surface, a ~1040mb CAN surface high is sliding down the CAN plains with its leading front currently reaching the central plains. The parent mid and upper shortwave (troughing reflected all the way down to 850 mbs) will reach Lk Superior this morning, and the eastern U.P. and northern lower by early afternoon. Lake aggregate troughing will be seen with this, bending the isobars around northern lower MI. This will result in generally northerly winds over eastern upper and northwesterly winds over northern lower today as widespread light to moderate snow moves across the state this afternoon. Winds will strengthen, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph at times.

Very cold air aloft (-17C to -15C at 850mb) will usher in behind the exiting upper waves tonight. This will generate a band or two of lake effect snow primarily over NW lower, which will linger into early Tuesday morning. With the surface high right over MI Tuesday, high temperatures will struggle to reach out of the 30s. Calm winds and sunshine will also be seen Tuesday.

A Gulf of Alaska system will race down the CAN Rockies towards the northern plains Tuesday. This approaching system will quickly return southerly flow to the state, and allow temperature to warm back to near normal starting Wednesday. Drier air from the previous CAN airmass will have settled over the SE US, somewhat limiting deep gulf return flow into the central plains. Existing continental moisture and Pacific moisture wrapped up in the upper low will provide enough for precipitation chances to return late Wednesday into early Thursday. Cooler air will exist to the north, and could lead to times of rain/snow for areas north of the bridge. Generally good agreement from guidance (ensembles and deterministic globals) on the upper low tracking across the northern plains and into Ontario CAN, which would drag a cold front across the area from west to east Thursday. A line of showers and thunderstorms would be possible in this environment. A surface high will move over MI eventually for the weekend, cooling temperatures down and drying things out.

Details: Strong winds and light to times of moderate snow will likely result in some visibility reductions today, however visibilities that drop below 3 SM will be local and brief. A decent amount of drier air exists, which will lead to a localized footprint of where more moderate snowfall is able to occur. As the lake aggregate induced surface troughing moves through this afternoon, areas along and north of M-72 could see these lower visibility's as more moderate snowfall moves through. CAMs are in generally agreement for where they track the surface troughing (and thus the area of enhanced LL convergence). Two things are leading to confidence in impacts being minimal today; the first is the lack of background moisture and the second is the feature moves through the area rather quickly. This results in a short window for accumulation of snow that is generally light. But will also result in a few local spots seeing that more moderate snow for an hour or two this afternoon, and could accumulation up to 2 inches.

The lake effect behind this feature will likely be in spots that didn't see the times of moderate snowfall today (southern snowbelts of NW lower). Not only will this further spread out the QPF, but by the time of the lake effect the amount of moisture in the air will have decreased even more. LL winds will weaken early Tuesday morning, and any lingering lake effect should diminish by sunrise.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next few hours as light snow showers work across parts of the area. Additional snow showers are anticipated later today as a front swings through and are expected to be heavier, potentially leading to drops to IFR/LIFR VSBYs under heaviest showers later this afternoon/evening. Drops to MVFR CIGs will also be possible by this afternoon, especially across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan. Weak/calm winds this morning will quickly increase behind the front later today with expected northwest winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts through this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.