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KEY MESSAGES

- Showery/drizzly at times today with breezy to windy conditions.

- Cooler mid to late week with widespread below freezing overnight low temperatures expected.

- Occasional rain and snow showers mid to late week as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Negatively tiled trough axis will be situated across the central UP extending southeast towards northern MI by this morning. Consequently, most of the deep and rich layer moisture will be east of northern Michigan during this time. That being said, low level moisture will linger, especially across eastern upper and northwest lower MI with showers/drizzly weather certainly possible through at least the morning hours. Some guidance is suggesting lingering drizzle through the early portions of the afternoon with ~1 km deep low level saturation, although tough to say whether this will be deep enough for drizzle. Bottom half of that 1 km layer begins to dry out as deeper afternoon mixing takes hold, which should limit any lingering droplets by the mid afternoon, if not sooner in most locations. Realistically though, this is just occasional, plain drizzle, that does nothing in regards to impacts.

Breezy to windy conditions are anticipated again today as winds aloft remain brisk. The focus this morning through the afternoon will likely be near/north of M-32, more specifically the Tip of the Mitt (it will get quite windy on the mighty mac). Low clouds and light drizzle may not allow for the best or most consistent transport of momentum to the sfc, but still, boundary layer winds ~30 kts with mid to upper 30s at the top of the boundary layer suggest the potential for occasional gusts >35 mph in spots. Elsewhere, 25 to 35 mph on average. Winds finally diminish towards evening and into tonight.

The trough today lifts well to the northeast into mid week, however, more troughiness builds in behind across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Cannot rule out a few showers near Saginaw Bay on Wednesday as a short wave and subsequent low pressure system well to our southeast scrape this area. As the trough (upper low) continues to build down across the Great Lakes, the cold pool aloft oozes over northern MI. Couple this with a few embedded pieces of energy rotating around the main trough near/just north of the SOO, and the potential exists for occasional rain/snow showers mid to late week. Best potential looks to be Thursday afternoon. Given the setup aloft and a few progged soundings showing steep low level lapse rates, this certainly has the feel of low topped rain and snow showers.

The pattern mid to late week is certainly a cold one, with forecast low temperatures in the 20s Wednesday night through at least Friday night. Thus, this could be impactful for any areas with sensitive vegetation early in the season.

Upper low continues to spin to our northeast across portions of Ontario and Quebec, with subsequent energy diving southeast, if not this weekend, then early next week at some point. Thus, looks like we remain relatively cool and unsettled in the long term.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 609 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Any lingering showers will end quickly this morning. IFR to MVFR producing overcast will gradually scour out today, although it may take much of today to leave KCIU. VFR conditions expected tonight under just some passing higher based clouds. Gusty southwest winds will steadily veer to west and northwest today...with those gusts easily topping 25 knots at times. Winds will quickly subside after sunset.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 347>349. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-322.