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KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering lake effect snow showers this afternoon/evening, most notably across portions of Chippewa County.

- Cold overnight low temperatures tonight.

- Watching several potentially impactful snow events this week: * Late Monday - Tuesday * Tuesday night - Wednesday * Thursday night/Friday through the weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains anchored over the eastern two-thirds of the NOAM this afternoon. Embedded shortwave trough axis is currently in the process of swinging through locally with the last vestiges of synoptically aided snow exiting stage right. While some lake induced snow showers will no doubt continue into this evening an eventual down trend should commence as ~1032mb sfc high pressure is progged to settle overhead later tonight.

Forecast Details: Lake induced snow showers continue across portions of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan this afternoon. The most notable activity across parts of western and central Chippewa County where an additional localized 2-5"+ of accumulation remains possible through this evening. Elsewhere, snow showers are expected to wane in coverage into the evening, but light winds may yield land breeze processes and potential for convergent snow bands/meso vortex generation into tonight. Latest CAMs still in line with this thought, and largely keeps much of this activity offshore of northwest lower into tonight. That said, wouldn't be all too surprised if a few snow showers scrape parts of the immediate northwest lower coast at times.

Otherwise, clouds largely clear across much of the area through the night, again save for those nearest the Lake Michigan and Superior shorelines. Aforementioned light winds, clear skies and at least a minor fresh addition to our snow pack from last night/today should all lead to excellent radiational cooling across much of the area. Coldest temps expected to be inland where sub-zero temps appear to be most likely. "Warmer" near the coasts and for those that hold on to some cloud cover...likely in the single digits and low teens above zero.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Active winter pattern continues for the week ahead with several periods to watch for potentially impactful snow.

Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday): After a very cold start across much of the area Monday morning, winds turn out of the south-southwest in advance of of our next clipper set to arrive Monday night - Tuesday. Latest trends continue to support increasing potential for SSW flow lake effect to ramp up in advance of this event across Lake Michigan Monday afternoon through Monday evening -- focusing on western Mack/ Chip counties. Later Monday night, synoptic support arrives from the west, and while synoptically driven snow is expected to spread across the entirely of the forecast area during this time, the heaviest likely to remain across parts of the eastern U.P., stretching into the Lake Michigan shoreline counties of northwest lower. Synoptic support exits through the day Tuesday with some lingering lake effect into the evening. 24-30 hour (18z Mon. - 00z Wed.) LREF & NBM snowfall probabilities certainly highest across parts of western Chip/Mack with high (>70%) chances of 4"+ of new snow. Medium probabilities (30-50%) of 6"+. While probs are lower across far northwest lower, there's still some 50-70% chances for 4"+ across parts of Emmet, Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties. Favored accums across the remainder of northern lower and eastern upper in the 1-3" range. And lastly to toss another wrench in, increasingly gusty winds are anticipated Monday night-Tuesday, especially near the coasts (coinciding with the areas of greatest snowfall) -- would expect considerable blowing/drifting and significantly reduced visibility.

Day 4-7 (Tue night. - Friday): Hot on the heels of Monday night/Tuesday's system, another more potent wave is expected to dig across the upper MS valley and western Great Lakes Tuesday night/Wednesday. Associated sfc low pressure progged to track across the Upper Midwest and into central/southern MI. While it appears to be a quick-mover, several inches of snow look possible with latest probs for 4"+ across northern lower ranging from 40-65%+. Lower probs north of the bridge. As noted by the prior forecaster, given strong warm advection surge driving the bulk of this snowfall, thermodynamics will continue to have to be monitored, especially the farther south you go. Latest trends support all snow across APX's footprint, but the rain/snow mix (or all rain) line isn't all that far to the south. This may also result in lower snow ratios than guidance is currently depicting (outside of the FGEN max). Periods of lake effect snow showers a good bet on the backside of this system Wednesday afternoon - Thursday night.

Another wave set to cross the northern tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend. Longer range ENS trends favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake effect/enhanced event that'd favor the typical snowbelts with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much of northern MI.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Lake effect clouds/snow showers will dwindle tonight. Still brief MVFR restrictions possible at CIU for an hour or two. Otherwise VFR tonight and Monday. Winds diminish tonight, with a southerly breeze developing Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for MIZ086-087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321- 322.