textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread snowfall this morning before freezing drizzle potential creeps in this afternoon through the evening.

- Renewed push of arctic air arrives Friday morning with associated impacts (cold/snow/wind), lasting through Saturday.

- Seasonable to above normal temperatures build early next week with an active pattern potentially bringing precipitation type issues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Stout NW to SE oriented baroclinic zone aligning with strong jet streak will be the primary driver of weather through Saturday... with a strong thermal gradient consisting of temps currently in the 40s as far north as Edmonton, Alberta interacting with dominant polar airmass overhead and north into Ontario to support cyclogenesis across far northern Manitoba. This feature will become a closed low that directs traffic through the first several days of the forecast period.

Stationary boundary separating deep arctic air over northern Ontario and Quebec and milder Pacific air over the Plains and western Corn Belt will provide a corridor of focus for the first of a series of shortwaves to pass through the region in the next 36 hours. This particular wave, coupled with warm air advection commencing within a zone of favorable left exit jet quadrant dynamics will support a zone of prolonged saturation across northern Michigan through later this afternoon. In the wake of this wave's passage, minimal forcing and continued lingering moisture within the continued warm air advection regime will lead to a "lull" of very light snow and freezing drizzle late this afternoon through early Thursday night as temperatures aloft warm out of the dendritic growth zone... and minimal to no ice crystal activation processes materialize.

As the aformentioned deepening cyclone approaches James Bay, it will force the arctic front through northern Michigan, complete with another round of synoptic snow... but also ushers in a deep arctic airmass that will contribute to a transition to lake effect snowfall through the afternoon hours on Friday, carrying into Friday night as the core of the arctic airmass surges into the region.

Forecast breakdown of today and this evening, Thursday night into Friday, and Friday afternoon into Saturday:

Today / this evening: Widespread light snowfall overspreads the region from NW to SE through the morning hours. Better lift and moisture generally favors areas west of I-75 in northern lower and much of eastern upper Michigan. This region, given the slight advantage of better snowfall dynamics, will probably see 1 to 3 inches of snowfall through later this afternoon. For the rest of the region, snow is still anticipated, but generally probably winds up with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow through late this afternoon. Once this period of snow passes (generally after 20z / 4pm), warm advection will likely transition activity to flurries mixing with freezing drizzle at times. As such, we may be contending with a glaze of ice on top of this snowfall this evening into tonight. Temperatures will warm through the 20s to near 30 into tonight, and likely plateau there.

Later tonight through Friday night: Another period of light snowfall overspreads from NW to SE, and again with better forcing and moisture favoring west of I-75 in northern lower and much of eastern upper. Temperatures continue to creep higher into the morning as snow falls, likely poking to or just above freezing for a lot of areas south of M-72, possibly as far north as M-32. Total snowfall... again 1 to 3 inches in the aforementioned favored areas through Friday afternoon, an inch or less elsewhere. This comes to a screeching halt as the arctic front forces its way through the region late in the morning. This will bring an abrupt switch in wind direction from SW to NW and increase in wind speed (gusts possible 35 to 40mph through the afternoon), and bring plummeting temperatures through the afternoon hours... all accompanied by what will probably be a pretty pronounced sudden burst of snow late in the morning into the early afternoon. This particular period will bring about hazardous travel concerns from blowing / drifting snow, reduced visibility, and potential for a flash freeze in areas that see a little melting action from those warmer temperatures... because by Friday evening, temperatures are going to be freefalling through the single digits and below zero overnight Friday... hampering road treatment effectiveness, and producing dangerously cold wind chills that push or even exceed Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

While widespread snows will probably be on a downward trend by Friday evening, lake effect snow showers should carry on through the snowbelts, but temperatures should trend in the other direction for snowflake growth processes... resulting in any additional snow probably being more of a "baby powder" composition within a more northerly flow regime (targeting GT Bay region with another few inches of snowfall overnight).

Saturday through next Wednesday: Dadgum cold Saturday with highs in the low teens at best for most. Probably dry for most aside from some residual lake effect snow showers south / downwind of GT Bay... though with surface high overhead, not anticipating this activity to be overly robust. Return flow builds Sunday, signaling what will be the most significant relaxation of the deep arctic pattern we have been contending with since mid January. That being said, continued intrusions of warm air advection and the associated shortwaves with the regime (coupled with favorable right entrance jet dynamics), potential for another shot of snow Sunday... and again on Monday. Additional waves set to pass through Tuesday into Wednesday... but with temperatures poking above normal (and above freezing too), that opens the door for mixed precipitation types.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Prevailing MVFR to IFR cigs/visbys today, though not impossible some sites could drop to LIFR for brief periods...as snow overspreads the area. Not impossible impacts could stay closer to MVFR or VFR at APN. Snow and/or fog/low-stratus tonight noting potential for winds to go light at times overnight...esp where it clears out ahead of the cold front, set to cross during the morning (may hold off till after 12z). Think there could also be some FZDZ this afternoon/evening, esp for TVC, MBL. SW winds increase today, 10-15kts with gusts 15- 25kts, turning to the W late...also could see snow tick up again toward 12z with IFR or LIFR returning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.