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KEY MESSAGES

- Back to northern Michigan early Spring reality...with a messy mix of winter weather expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Cooler, with potential additional rounds of winter weather later this week and again later in the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

A warm one out there early this afternoon, with current readings in the 50s and 60s across northern lower Michigan, and mostly in the 40s north of the Mighty Mac. Exceptionally mild overnight lows, filtered sunshine, and gusty southwest winds ahead of an approaching weak cold front/surface trough resulted in such warm readings...with a few locations making a run at record highs for today's date. Rather significant changes however are in the offing, as current central NOAM zonal upper level flow begins to buckle...with lead amplification driven by shortwave trough and upper jet core rotating into the Pacific Northwest later today and tonight. This wave will only deepen with time, cutting across our region Wednesday night. This will allow still cold Canadian air to "bleed" south into much of the northern Conus and Great Lakes, at least theoretically setting the stage for perhaps impactful winter weather precipitation events the rest of this week into the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main focus centers on potential for round of mixed precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. Secondary focus on potential for additional rounds of winter weather to impact our area later this week and again this weekend.

Details:

Not a whole lot expected tonight into the daylight hours of Tuesday, although can't rule out a few light and non-impactful rain and snow showers at times...especially across eastern upper Michigan. Developing northeast winds behind today's departing cold front will begin to usher in cooler temperatures, with highs on Tuesday in the 30s and 40s across eastern upper Michigan and much of northeast lower Michigan. Downslope favored areas south of Grand Traverse Bay could still make a run into the lower 50s. Cold air advection only increases with time Tuesday night into Wednesday, all-the-while moisture begins to deepen and surge north ahead of that earlier mentioned deepening shortwave. While surface temperatures look to cool below freezing Tuesday night, warm nose aloft (several degrees above freezing) will be a bit slower to yield...especially across northern lower Michigan. This sets the stage for a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet across northern lower...with the sleet footprint expanding south as the warm nose aloft cools and the below freezing surface layer increases in height. Warm air aloft further erodes on Wednesday, supporting snow expanding south across the area. Warm nose aloft will not exist or be of minimal depth across eastern upper Michigan, keeping snow as the primary form of precipitation through this "event." Now, with that said, dprog/Dt of nearly all available guidance shows a correction south with best moisture convergence and forced isentropic upglide...placing the heaviest precipitation across central and southern lower Michigan. In addition, pattern recognition of what should be a more southwest to northeast alignment of what is expected to be rather well organized and intense southern Lakes/northern Ohio Valley convection Tuesday night strongly supports significant moisture disruption to the north of this convective activity. Lastly, best deformation and trowal dynamics do not occur until the shortwave and attendant deepening surface response are east of our area. As of now, this looks largely an advisory type level of event, with snow amounts on the order of 2 to 5 inches across eastern upper Michigan, and a few inches across the north half of northern lower Michigan (mixed with sleet and freezing rain). As for ice amounts, given runoff (much less than a one to one liquid to ice ratio) and that south displacement of heaviest precipitation, thinking largely a tenth of an inch or less for most areas...with some isolated heavier totals possible. Of course, this is still a few periods away, and subject to many changes as thermal fields are better analyzed and axis of heaviest precipitation becomes more in focus. Given these uncertainties, will again refrain from any specific headlines, utilizing our hazardous weather outlook and weather graphics to highlight this winter weather potential.

Quiet and seasonably cool Thursday gives way to our next potential for accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday as next fast moving wave races across the northern Conus. Thermal fields look substantially cooler on its arrival, supporting mainly snow. Could see at least a few inches of snow with this system, although latest guidance trends are a bit less robust with this wave than just 24 hours ago. Simply will need to see where trends continue to take us. No rest for the weary...with strong support for additional mid level shortwave troughing and intense upper jet core to force rapid amplification to the northern stream flow this weekend into early next week...drumming up quite the surface response in the process. Will definitely need to watch how this all unfolds, with at least some evidence this rapid amplification will drive rather vigorous low pressure and an attendant significant winter weather event near or across the Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday night...with even the potential for a post-system lake response heading into Monday in strong cold air advection regime. Again, plenty of time to work out all those details in the coming days...with significant changes more than expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 105 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Breezy southwest winds will continue through the afternoon hours, diminishing this evening and overnight. Slow increase in clouds tonight into early Tuesday, with CIGs slowly lowering to 040-060. Precipitation free weather anticipated, with rain, freezing rain, and snow chances increasing later Tuesday. That being said, VFR conditions are anticipated through much of this TAF cycle.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.