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KEY MESSAGES

- Shot of partially modified Arctic air visiting the Northwoods into Thursday, resulting in well below normal temperatures and more lake effect snows.

- More of the same heading through the extended, with periodic shots of reinforcing cold air and more lake enhanced snow chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Pretty respectable cold front now exiting off into northern Lake Huron, with a shot of partially modified Arctic air sweeping into the region behind it. Additional lake snows and falling temperatures the result, with even colder conditions lurking just upstream. Still relatively "mild" out there, with current readings in the 20s to lower 30s...with those warmest readings on the south side of the sunrise side.

Cold air advection will continue across the northern Lakes tonight through Thursday morning, with the coldest temperature anomalies slowly rotating off to the east heading into later Thursday and Thursday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Lake snow evolution and attendant amounts/headline considerations, along with temperature trends.

Details:

Over-water thermal gradient only increases further with time tonight into Thursday morning as H8 temperatures break -20C (pretty impressive for early December). Transition to a more "pure" lake effect environment will also occur as any real synoptic scale support is lost. Still, some pretty impressive lake snow parameters will continue to focus across eastern Lake Superior, helped along by maturing lake aggregate troughing running up Whitefish Bay into the central basin. Good to excellent convective depths (up to 10kft) and enhanced low level convergence via that lake aggregate troughing will definitely help compensate for loss of synoptic contribution, with well organized lake bands expected to impact the famed snowbelts of Chippewa County tonight into Thursday morning. With that said, still have some trepidation with regards to exact snow totals as aggressive cooling perhaps forces the fluff-producing dendritic growth layer closer to the surface (perhaps below cloud base levels altogether). However, have also experienced aggressive lake modification within better banding structures eventually forcing the favored DGZ back within the snowflake production layer. We shall see. Either way, looking at significant impacts, with some of the heavier snow bands looking to perhaps direct themselves right into the SOO and along the entirety of the M-28 corridor. Easily expect several inches of snow in these areas by later Thursday morning, with double digit totals on the table...especially if that DGZ remains centered in the convective cloud depth layer. Gusty northwest winds will definitely result in areas of blowing snow, especially in those more open areas along M-28. This of course will only exacerbate the already hazardous travel conditions.

A bit of a different story off northern Lake Michigan with both lower inversion heights and lack of any well organized low level convergence signature. These should theoretically result in less organized multi-band structures as well as less intense snowfall rates. Still, simple persistence of passing snow showers will likely bring a few inches of new snow to parts of northwest lower by later Thursday morning where diffused bands become a bit more stationary. Again, gusty northwest winds will result in some blowing and drifting snow...definitely resulting in some travel impacts across the snowbelt regions of northwest lower Michigan. Snow shower intensity and organization expected to decrease of both lakes Thursday afternoon as convective depths shrink and lake aggregate troughing is lost.

Other focus is on those cold temperatures, with lows tonight dropping into the single digits away from those lake modified areas...and highs Thursday likely only reaching the upper teens across inland regions. Gusty northwest winds will of course make it feel several degrees colder, with wind chill readings likely dropping into the single digits below zero by later tonight into early Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Really, no significant changes as long-wave troughing and active northern stream flow maintain control of northern Michigan weather right through the middle of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through the period.

Details:

As mentioned above, simply a forecast of persistence into next week. Next wave looks to arrive later Thursday night into Friday, with additional shortwave energy arriving Friday night. Each one of these waves will bring renewed chances of lake augmented snows...with the threat for any real accumulations again centered in our traditional lake effect areas. Not seeing any real signal for heavy snow amounts...although will need to watch Friday night as sustained west- southwest flow and ample synoptic moisture contribution may target heavier snow into the Lake Michigan collar counties. Simple forecast persistence thereafter, with additional fast moving and relatively moisture starved waves kicking off additional snow showers at times right into next week...with the greatest emphasis in our snowbelt regions. Temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees each day but remain at least a few degrees below normal right though the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Lake effect snow showers have built in behind an earlier FROPA. NW winds of 8 to 13kts with G15 to 20kts (at times 26kts) will be seen through 12Z. Fragmented bands of SHSN are expected to be transient over northern lower, leading to brief impacts to terminals tonight. KCIU has a better chance of seeing longer lived MVFR/IFR conditions due to times of SHSN. Conditions improve for all terminals after 16Z as winds become light and W. Winds turn S/SW ahead of next system with G15 to 20kts after 03Z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ086-087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Gale Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.