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KEY MESSAGES

-Late season warmth continues today with highs in the 70s.

-Rainfall moves across Northern Michigan this Wednesday and Thursday.

-High pressure returns this weekend, supporting clear skies and quiet weather through the remainder of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis: 500mb Cyclonic low pressure over the eastern seaboard with subsequent shortwave ridging upstream over the Great Lakes Region begins to break down today and progress eastward. At the same time upstream troughing with attached surface low pressure continues to develop in the central U.S and expand moisture through the Midwest by early Wednesday morning. Light rainfall will persist across the CWA this Wednesday and Thursday as a slow-moving frontal boundary works across the region.

Cooler air will settle into the Northwoods this weekend as surface high pressure builds across Northern Ontario and pushes cool, dry northerly air into Northern Michigan. Temperatures are expected to remain near climatological normal for early October with highs in the 60s and overnight lows around 40. Quiet conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period as midlevel zonal flow keeps any energy to our north.

Forecast Details:

Today and tonight: Subsidence aloft will continue dry and quiet conditions today as summer-like temperatures build into the 70s across the CWA. No active weather to report other than the morning dense fog expected to quickly burn off/mix out as the surface inversion breaks down. The majority of the day is expected to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some low-level cumulus clouds through midday before burning off and being replaced by mid/high- level stratus this evening from the incoming frontal wave.

Wednesday and Thursday: Couple rounds of light precipitation are expected to return after a prolonged dry spell to Northern Michigan. Even with poor midlevel dynamics and a boundary dissipating with time, southerly moisture advection will produce appreciable rainfall amounts this Wednesday and Thursday. Highest amounts favor southwestern parts of the CWA, with moderate chances of an inch or more, but the majority of Northern Lower will likely observe around a half inch of QPF over the course of 36-48 hours. Again, rainfall intensity is expected to be low, but after a couple of weeks with no observed precipitation, this rainfall will be beneficial for a dry fall season.

Friday through Monday Outlook: Overall quiet and dry weather is expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period as high pressure builds across Northwestern Ontario. Little to no chances are expected this weekend into early next week as zonal 500mb flow punts any atmospheric disturbances north of the CWA. Low- end PoPs will remain in the forecast for this Sunday as long-range guidance depicts showers expanding south and clipping Eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt, but confidence remains low regarding any observable rainfall as mid and low levels appear very dry. Otherwise temperatures cool slightly compared to today and return to seasonable norms for October with highs in the 60s and overnight lows around 40.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 646 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Locally dense fog early this morning should burn off over the couple of hours followed by solid VFR and light southwest winds today. Lake breezes most likely to impact MBL/APN this afternoon. Thickening/lowering clouds anticipated tonight with rain arriving for most terminals from west to east after midnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 020>028-031>034-086>088-095>099. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>347. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-341- 342. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321-322.