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KEY MESSAGES

- High impact lake effect snow event continues today and tonight resulting in hazardous travel on Thanksgiving Day

- Windy conditions with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph will last through this evening

- The event slowly ends later Friday as winds weaken and lake effect snow gradually lessens in intensity and reach

- Widespread chances for snow return with the next system arriving late Saturday. Snow will last through Sunday

- A brief break in precipitation early next week

UPDATE

Issued at 1120 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Most intense snow band attm seems to be focusing further north than earlier expectations...currently stretching from CVX to (at this particular moment in time) our office near Waters to as far southeast as Rose City/National City in our southeast. Punch of PV passing to our south across S. Lower MI likely helping with this, noting upticks in water vapor imagery suggesting additional lift across the southern half of the forecast area over the last couple hours. Not sure how much further north this area of lift/deformation will be allowed to drift...as another PV niblet is swirling down across the EUP attm, helping to boost snow across the Straits/Tip of the Mitt attm. Will have to see how these two features interact...but currently expecting we will maintain the intense band through the afternoon in a similar vicinity as it is now...possibly drifting a little more into Kalkaska county with time as that niblet drops south into N. Lower this afternoon, assuming that takes precedence in the flow. Expect snowfall rates of 1- 2 inches per hour to continue...leading to rapidly- snow-covered roads and whiteout conditions beneath that heaviest band...and gusts 25-35kts further complicating travel conditions this Thanksgiving Day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 348 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Current surface observations places the now occluded surface low around 50 miles to the NE of the SOO. Windy west-northwest to northwest conidtions currently exist over northern MI as a boundary associated with the surface low has exited the state to the east. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue over most of the area through sunrise this morning. Radar and satellite depict widespread lake enhanced snow covering most of the state. Measured SLRs at the office yield around 12:1 for the onset of the snow yesterday night. Under some of the heavier snow bands that traversed NW lower, intial snow estimates of 1 to 3 inches fell through midnight Thursday. Heavy snow under these bands will continue into the day today as the lake effect engine kicks into full gear.

Forecast: A deep upper level closed low over the great lake region will continue to lift NE today. In its wake, a stronger upper level jet (130kts+) will race down the northern and central plains, meeting with wrap around easterly flow associated with the exiting closed low. The momentum from the upper jet will orient the wrap around flow to north/northeast, and help reinforce an environment favorable of keeping the LES engine going today and tonight for northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. This environment includes favorable background moisture and slightly cooler low level air (850mb temps around -10 to -12C). A ~10 mb surface pressure gradient will continue over the state today, with stronger low level winds (30 - 40kts) as the exiting system's forcing features linger through the day today. SLRs will slightly increase as temps aloft cool a little and we enter into a more lake effect regime vs a lake enhanced one, with expected values around 14:1 to 15:1.

With plenty of moisture lingering, some forcing remaining, and stronger northwest winds locking in and continuing; heavy, banded lake effect snow will continue today and tonight. Short range guidance has verified generally well with the track and timing of the surface low, which places more confidence in a stronger wind field lasting most of today. This continues the previous forecast thoughts for a few more well defined bands establishing and reaching heavy snow as far inland as parts of Montmorency, Oscoda, and Ogemaw counties. The one caveat is that the bands will likely wiggle around in the afternoon and evening hours, once the pressure fields (and as a result, wind fields) begin to gradually relax a little. This could spread the heavier snow over a larger area, and result in slightly lower overall amounts. However, this is irrelevant to the impacts that will still be seen over much of northern MI today. Heavy snow training over locations and strong winds will result in quick accumulations of snow on roads and very low visibilities at times, leading to periods of very hazardous travel on Thanksgiving day today for most of northern lower and eastern upper. The highest additional snow amounts land in parts of Antrim, Kalkaska, and Crawford counties. Please see the latest winter storm warnings and advisories for snow amounts.

Friday, northwest winds will weaken through the day. Snow showers will generally begin to weaken in intensity, with only an isolated band or two producing moderate to heavy snow. Snowfall will gradually become more diffuse, and migrate towards the tip of the mitt as intensities weaken. An additional couple tenths to 3" of snow is forecasted for parts of northern MI Friday 7 AM through 7 PM. Friday night, winds will become calm and high pressure builds in. Temperatures will fall into the teens overnight for most locations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 348 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Saturday, large scale troughing over the CONUS will put quasi-zonal upper level flow over the central Rockies. This will generate a lee side surface cyclone near the OK panhandle. Rich gulf moisture will be advected northward into the central plains. This moisture (focused in the lower levels), will meet with Pacific moisture over the northern plains (focused more in the mid levels). The surface cyclone deepens over the central plains during the day Saturday (~1010 mb low). Colder air on the northern side of the cyclone will create an ideal environment for snow (FGEN band of snow will track over the central plains to the western great lakes region late Saturday). Light to moderate snow will fall over northern lower late Saturday into Sunday as the surface low tracks towards Saginaw Bay. A quick hitting couple inches of snow with a normal SLR (10:1 to 13:1) will fall near the M-55 corridor and parts of NE lower. The system exits late this weekend, with growing chances for more quiet weather early next week.

At this time, guidance is still showing some uncertainty in the track of the surface low. The most likely scenario would keep most of the heaviest snow over the southern half of the state, with a couple inches potentially reaching M-55, Saginaw Bay, and parts of NE lower. However, ensemble guidances gives a wide range of snowfall totals for Sunday over parts of NE lower (from a couple inches up to several). If the low tracks farther north, more widespread heavy snow could be seen over parts of NW lower, and most of NE lower. We will have our eyes on this next system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

MVFR CIG's will continue to occupy all TAF sites through the majority of the TAF period with SHSN periodically dropping CIG's to IFR through tonight. Continued SN and BLSN will keep VSBY's mostly between 3-6SM, but any higher bands of intensity will drop condtions below 2 miles. Winds and wind gust slowly lighten up overnight through Friday along with snowfall intensity. Flight condtions are expected to slowly improve this Friday with KTVC and KMBL likely returning to VFR Friday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018- 024-088. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ020-025- 031. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-086-087-095-096-099. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ026- 032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.