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KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing shower chances and a cool start to the Holiday Weekend.

- Perhaps a few linger showers Sunday gives way to a warm and dry Memorial Day.

- Trends support above normal temperatures continuing into at least Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave ridging centered southeast to northwest across the Great Lakes early this afternoon...with its surface reflection centered just to our northeast along the Ontario/Quebec border. Elevated moisture plume spreading northeast within overhead ridging, part of upper level southwest flow between that overhead ridging and dual upstream shortwave troughs...one located over Missouri with the other rotating across the Dakotas. Lack of low level moisture...as evident by surface relative humidity values tanking below 30 percent...helping keep conditions dry despite some elevated returns on regional radars. Still a bit on the cool side of normal as we approach the last week of May, with current readings in the 50s and 60s.

Upstream shortwave troughs will continue their northeast journey, with that Missouri wave eventually cutting up across lower Michigan on Saturday. Nice tropical moisture feed with this wave, with the main axis of this deep moisture advection slated to center off to our south and east to kick off the Holiday weekend. Ridging expected to build back overhead heading through the beginning of next week, with growing evidence this becomes part of central NOAM centered omega block... suggesting this upper level high may stayed locked in across the western Great Lakes/northern Plains for several days.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower evolution tonight into Saturday followed by temperature trends next week.

Details:

Deepest forcing and greatest deep layer moisture convergence largely center both east (tied to Missouri wave) and west (Dakota wave) of northern Michigan tonight and Saturday. Dprog's/Dt's of nearly all available guidance is a southeast adjustment to main channel of deepest subtropical moisture with that southern wave...focusing into the southern and eastern Great Lakes. Still expecting some deformation driven light rain to spread northeast...likely targeting our southeast footprint for better rain chances later tonight into Saturday. Not expecting much rain, with most areas receiving well under a quarter of an inch. Those clouds and showers will again keep temperatures several degrees below normal for Saturday, coolest across northeast lower Michigan where gusty southeast winds of Lake Huron will keep readings in the 50s. Perhaps a few light shower again on Sunday as southern extent of that northern wave spreads overhead. Again, any shower activity should remain minimal given decaying forcing and a complete exit of deeper moisture well off to our east.

Sure looks like summer makes an entrance into at least the beginning stages of next week as that ridging/heat dome expands north...with high temperatures returning into the 70s and 80 Monday and Tuesday. Questions do enter the picture the second half of the week, with at least some evidence for slight retrogression to long-wave features... allowing northeast NOAM centered troughing (part of that omega block mentioned earlier) to establish more influence on our weather. If this occurs we can expect temperatures to be significantly cooler than what is currently advertised in our forecast. Plenty of time to see how this all unfolds in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1258 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR to prevail across the board through all but perhaps the last couple hours of the forecast period. High cloud bases will continue to be accompanied by a persistently gusty easterly wind that may occasionally gust over 20kts through the rest of the afternoon. Surface winds calm quite a bit this evening, but winds are to remain quite elevated just off the surface. Result will be a period of LLWS at 2kft (120 degrees at 40 to 45kts) through the overnight as the next system works in. Winds will become gusty and mixed quickly Saturday morning, with gusts at the surface rebounding to 20 to 25kts.

Moisture with this system will be quite lacking... so anticipation is that we ride through VFR CIGs holding above 5kft through 18z Saturday with VCSH... the lone exception being APN, which, with closer proximity to the system, may see a drop to MVFR with -SHRA prevailing late in the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MIZ017-018-024-030-036-042-088-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ341-342.