textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered shower and storm chances through Sunday, much better storm chances Sunday night through Monday evening. Severe storms possible. - Dry weather and quiet weather returns through mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

An expansive upper ridge over the desert southwest with record warmth over parts of the western CONUS. Downstream troughing to the east, placing the Great Lakes in an active west to northwest upper flow pattern. As is typical in mid summer patterns, a challenging forecast with weak forcing and somewhat nebulous triggers. This will change by Monday with a stronger shortwave and surface frontal passage.

A weak mid level shortwave and washed out surface frontal boundary may bring a few showers or a storm across the area tonight. Instability is rather anemic and we remain at least weakly capped through the first part of tonight. But there may be enough moisture pooling along the boundary (evident in narrow 925-850mb theta e ridge) and forcing along the weakish boundary to produce scattered precipitation. Sunday will likely be relatively quiet for much of the day as instability increases under broad warm air advection but weak forcing limits storm development.

That changes by Sunday night and Monday, with much better shower and storm chances as a robust shortwave dives across the Great Lakes. Models are coming into better agreement, although still some differences in the strength of this feature and the attendant surface reflection, which will certainly have a large impact on the scope of precipitation development (and severity). Increasing mid level westerlies, steepening lapse rates and favorable kinematics within broad low level warm air advection, support a severe storm threat Sunday night through Monday night, with damaging winds and large hail possible. Many question marks on the overall evolution of the convection, given the uncertainty in the strength of the approaching shortwave and the placement of boundaries from earlier storms. The convection may eventually transition into an MCS as it pushes southward through Michigan.

We will likely see some smoke make a return to the area as well over the next few days, although the source region for this smoke is more Pacific Northwest versus northern Ontario. Any smoke that returns doesn't look nearly as thick as what was experienced a few weeks ago.

Otherwise, quieter weather returns through midweek with high pressure in control.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

ISO to SCT showers and a few storms are possible tonight into early Sunday morning along a weak boundary. Activity will slowly move east to southeast with time, with precipitation chances between 6Z and 12Z. Pretty low confidence in direct terminal impacts, so most sites have VCSH for the time being. Otherwise, low clouds will fill in for a few hours behind this feature, with MVFR to IFR CIGs, best chance at KCIU and KPLN. That being said, confidence increasing in a couple hour window of MVFR or lower CIGs at KTVC and KMBL as well. VSBY reductions also anticipated, especially KCIU and KMBL, with BR, perhaps FG for a period. Quick return to VFR by mid to late morning, with generally light west winds through the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.