textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Two rounds of rainfall are expected to track across the Great Lakes region from Thursday through Saturday.

- Mild temperatures will continue next week with daytime highs approaching 60 degrees

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

500mb low-amplitude troughing located over Canada will keep cold cP air north of the border for the next several days. A Pacific air mass will influence the majority of the CONUS, including the Great Lakes region with temperatures well above normal for early March. An embedded shortwave currently over the central Plains will develop surface low pressure and lift through the Midwest this Thursday, returning chances of rain. Active weather will continue through Saturday as another wave follows the same path, with another round of showers, including some chances of convection.

The remainder of the forecast period remains relatively benign after this Sunday as zonal midlevel flow continues a Pacific air mass influence across the Great Lakes region. This pattern will support surface temperatures well above normal, with minimal precipitation chances through the middle of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Two rounds of rainfall are expected to track across the Great Lakes region from Thursday through Saturday...Showers spread in Thursday morning as warm air advection pushes northward. Latest hi-res guidance supports most numerous showers south of M-72, with rain amounts ranging from a trace to a tenth of an inch. Low chances of freezing drizzle for localized areas near the M-72 corridor remain possible Thursday morning before sfc temps warm above freezing, but no widespread impacts are expected. The bulk of the QPF this week remains associated with the second clipper. There is high confidence (70-90%) for widespread QPF of half an inch. Latest ensembles continue to support convection from Friday night into Saturday, with over a hundred joules of MUCAPE and moderate mid-level lapse rates. Locally higher amounts of rain from convectively-driven showers are supported by this unstable environment, along with PWAT values approaching climatological maxima. Highest probs of QPF favor areas across Northern Lower west of I-75, with low to medium likelihood amounts around an inch. Localized ponding/flooding remains a potential concern depending on how effectively the snowpack melts over the next few days and allowing water to efficiently run off.

- Mild temperatures will continue early next week with daytime highs approaching 60 degrees... The zonal mid-level flow mentioned above will block cold air to the north on Sunday and Monday and continue to allow the more mild Pacific air mass to influence the Great Lakes region. Model blends continue to trend warmer, with surface temperatures surging well above normal for early March, even featuring widespread daytime highs in the upper 50s. Typically warmer areas of the CWA could push temperatures even higher as deterministic guidance forecasts highs well into 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Just some pockets of high MVFR/low VFR CIGs near CIU/PLN/APN early this morning. Additional chances for MVFR CIGs return at CIU, primarily this afternoon into tonight, while VFR conditions are expected at northern lower MI terminals through much of the period. Some fog development possible tonight, most likely at CIU and PLN. Light winds continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.