textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain and snow showers spread across Northern Michigan this morning. Very light precipitation is expected north of the M-55 corridor. -Warm weather builds this weekend into early next week accompanied by rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain. Watching for increased potential of localized flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Midlevel shortwave ridging continues to build today with its axis centered over the American Rockies. Downstream heights will continue to rise over the next several days, leading to a warmer Pacific air mass influence across the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, continued rain and snow showers driven by an established stationary boundary bisecting Michigans Lower Peninsula will begin to depart west this morning as high pressure centered over Wisconsin pushes drier air into the CWA. While a few lingering rain showers remain possible this afternoon, most areas will stay dry as subsidence scours out moisture today and Saturday.

Conditions turn more active next week as 500mb troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska shifts and centers itself over the southwest CONUS. This feature will influence the Midwest through the remainder of the forecast period as embedded waves lift through the region, delivering rounds of showers and storms beginning Sunday. Conditions are favorable for heavy rain development and increasing concerns for flooding across the CWA due to high QPF probabilities combined with temperatures/dew points in the 60s causing rapid snowpack melting.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain and snow showers (today): The majority of QPF associated with this stationary boundary has already been observed overnight, but the boundary will remain positioned over central Northern Lower this morning. Only measurable precipitation is expected to remain south of the M-72 corridor, with an additional tenth of an inch or less of rainfall. High pressure building across the Midwest will quickly start to influence the CWA today as model soundings depict moisture quickly scouring aloft. The majority of the region will remain dry this afternoon, but lingering low level moisture could produce one or two showers favoring areas near Saginaw Bay.

Heavy rain and increasing flooding potential (next week): The main focus over the next several day remains on the forecasted heavy rain potential next week. Aforementioned shortwaves will lift across the Midwest starting Sunday, with favorable dynamics to support widespread precipitation. Highest QPF probabilities of over an inch favor the Straits and Eastern Upper associated with the initial stratiform precipitation, but strong convective-driven rainfall across Northern Lower will deliver localized higher amounts. Latest guidance depicts PWATs reaching climatological maximums for April, profiles of long skinny CAPE, and deep warm cloud layers. Showers this Sunday/Monday will have low cloud-layer shear, producing the most QPF from single cells/clusters rather than from training storms. Additional rounds of showers are expected through the forecast period, especially Wednesday when another shortwave lifts through the Great Lakes region. Multiple inches of total rain over the course of a few days is likely. While this amount of rainfall is typically not an issue for the CWA, the combination of high snow water equivalent snowpack reports and expected rapid melting this week will likely lead to high river levels and localized flooding. Conditions will be monitored with future model runs and their potential impacts to Northern Michigan.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Band of MVFR to IFR producing cigs expected to develop across all taf locations this morning. Likely to see some fog/mist as well, along with pockets of light rain at KAPN (mixed with snow), KTVC, and KMBL. Any rain/snow amounts will remain light. Gradual improvement this afternoon as cigs increase and begin to scatter out...with skies trending mostly clear this evening. No significant wind concerns through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.