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KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog may linger for some this morning.

- Another period of wintry mix/snow/rain for portions of northern Michigan Thursday night into Friday.

- Snow showers will linger this weekend as we trend toward below normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sandwiched upper high across Ontario, with upper low across the Upper Midwest, will continue to move northeast today. Precipitation free weather is anticipated as a result. Another upper low moves out of the Intermountain West and Central Plains east northeast, underneath the departing upper low to the north across the Upper Midwest. This feature will track from Illinois into Michigan, with subsequent sfc low pressure system tracking from Illinois and southern Wisconsin and east into Michigan Thursday night into Friday. Another round of precipitation with this feature, rain, snow, and perhaps a brief wintry mix. This feature quickly ejects eastward Friday night.

Tough to say what exactly happens to the overall pattern this weekend. Upper high stays to the north, eventually sliding east with time. Meanwhile, troughing/trough axis passes underneath that upper high and either into or just to the south of northern Michigan. Low pressure system meanders to our east, ~ across Lake Huron. And looks like there may be a bit of a deformation axis aloft extending across the Upper Midwest this weekend. At the low levels, sfc troughing will extend northwest in a similar fashion. These features will likely produce areas of snow, aided by the lakes, across northern MI this weekend with temperatures trending closer to normal.

Upper ridging will continue to build early next week from the Desert Southwest up into the Intermountain West. On the northern periphery of the ridge axis, fast moving pieces of energy will dive southeast across Canada and perhaps into the Upper Midwest, eventually bringing the potential for more spatially congruent precipitation to northern MI ~mid next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Lingering fog:

Fog will likely linger this morning, given the saturated low level airmass and southeasterly low level flow. Although it has not materialized in a way that is widespread and dense, at least patchy areas of dense fog and freezing fog are anticipated, with areas east of the highest terrain, and near the Lake Huron shoreline, most favored. Slick conditions where areas are around or near freezing will be possible, mainly untreated secondary roadways, parking lots, etc. Will have to be monitored through the predawn and morning hours.

Icing/Snow Thursday night into Friday:

Next system will track from west to east across ~central and southern portions of MI, with a thump of precipitation as a result. Thermal profiles are very marginal, with the below freezing temps within the vicinity of the Straits up into the eastern UP largely. Thus, precipitation starts as rain Thursday night, with a mix the farther north you go. Looks like another situation where any mix, or freezing rain, may quickly transition to heavy, wet snow as the column cools within the heavier precipitation. Consequently, could be a couple of inches of wet snow across portions of the area, most notably northeast lower into the Straits and Eastern Upper, as indicated by ensemble guidance. Very low snow ratios make the actual snow amounts tough to nail down, right now have a couple of inches from northeast lower into eastern upper, but this will be fine tuned going forward. There could be a light glaze of ice for some as well.

Snow Showers This Weekend:

Stagnant pattern this weekend will produce snow shower activity across northern MI, with the potential for a couple of inches across portions of northern lower as energy passes near or just to the south of northern Michigan, and where low level convergence is maximized. This is an interesting pattern, and certainly any accumulating snow amounts will be fine tuned in the coming shifts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

LIFR CIGs currently spread across much of northern Michigan will persist for the next few hours before they begin to mix out from interior areas out toward the Lake Huron shoreline with time this morning and early afternoon. Current confidence is that LIFR/IFR CIGs will hold on at CIU and APN through today and into tonight, but that may change should cloud cover mix out more aggressively than anticipated. Otherwise, VFR conditions with partly/mostly sunny skies are anticipated for most areas by mid to late morning. Flight conditions look to quickly deteriorate again this evening and tonight as another system works into the Great Lakes from the southwest, bringing the next round of rain and associated LIFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY reductions to parts of northern lower by the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.