textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening esp Tip of the Mitt and E UP.

- Mild/warm temperatures this upcoming weekend (70s possible).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Fun little setup potentially for today, definitely has that cool season smell to it. Stout upper low across Ontario to our north (and low pressure system), with impressive short wave diving across the southern periphery of the broader trough. Consequently, heights lower, temperatures aloft decrease, and lapse rates steepen across northern MI. Additionally, upper level jet stream dives across the Upper Midwest, putting the best juxtaposition of upper support and instability (couple hundred joules possible) roughly across the Tip of the Mitt vicinity and northward. Thus, scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon across this region, spreading southward with time this evening and early overnight. The steep low to mid level lapse rates and increasing west winds aloft suggest the potential for gusty winds assuming these scattered showers and thunderstorms are able to remain robust as they move into the NWS Gaylord county warning area. Small hail is not completely out of the question but the wind potential is something to keep an eye on. Additionally, looks like some of our neighbors threw in waterspout potential across the big Lakes, will try and follow suit. Showers and a few storms remain possible into at least the first half of the overnight hours as heights aloft remain depressed and any low level convergence associated with the low pressure well to our north push into the region.

Continued depressed heights and cooler air aloft over the region on Thursday will result in a few additional showers, albeit the main short wave will be ejecting east and the cold pool aloft will be retreating to the north of N MI. Still, lapse rates may be steep enough for a few additional showers/low topped convection through the day on Thursday, again focusing across the E UP and adjacent locations of northern lower. Not as thermodynamically inclined as the Wednesday though. Temperatures will also be a little cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.

This weekend will feature rising heights aloft and increasing southwesterly winds. Thus, despite any brief low confidence showery activity Friday night, temperatures will rise into the 70s this weekend. Current forecast suggests a very low chance for precipitation, but might be worth keeping an eye on a low pressure system ejects out of the Deep South and moves northeast later on Sunday (most guidance and ENS keep this feature to the east of N MI). Early next week will feature a cool down as a frontal boundary and active weather works into the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 550 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Mid clouds build in later today, along with SCT -TSRA/-SHRA. Best potential will be at KCIU & KPLN, with ISO chance for KAPN and KTVC, time frame generally 21Z to 01Z. Gusty northwest winds may accompany the strongest storms, especially at KCIU. Regardless, northwest winds today will gust to 15 to 20 knots at times, generally decreasing tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ321.