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KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms today. Locally heavy rainfall w/ localized 1"+ amounts possible. A few strong storms also possible near Saginaw Bay.

- Dense Fog possible tonight into Saturday morning.

- Dry weather expected this weekend before rain/storm chances and cooler temps move in by Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

An expansive closed mid/upper low will churn over much of western Canada and the northern Great Plains into Sunday. A shortwave embedded in the main flow will continue to lift across the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes today before ridging works overhead through the remainder of the weekend. At the surface, the cyclone associated with the aforementioned closed low will weaken with time into this weekend as it spins over Saskatchewan/Manitoba due to it being cut off from favorable vorticity/temperature advections with a vertically stacked system. A warm front draped from around Grand Traverse Bay southeast across mid-Michigan will slowly lift this afternoon as a cold front and relatively localized low pressure center works from west to east across the area. High pressure then looks to build and nose in from the north this weekend. Looking ahead, it appears troughing works back in across the Great Lakes and much of the north-central CONUS by Tuesday with multiple waves potentially crossing the region through the end of next week.

Forecast Details:

The primary forecast concern will be on the evolution of ongoing showers and storms that have popped up along/ahead of the cold front in the last hour or two. Meager instability ~750 J/kg MUCAPE or less in a narrow tongue of warm sector between the aforementioned fronts is sufficient to support a few thunderstorms across the area. Given relatively weak instability confined to the lowest 5km/below around -10 C and weak deep-layer shear ~20 kts or less, severe storms are unlikely through this afternoon/evening. The best chance for any strong storms capable of producing damaging winds across our CWA would be near Saginaw Bay later today, and this is reflected in the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630Z update).

The greatest threat with this activity, especially given recent flooding, will be the potential for localized heavy rainfall. PWATs in excess of 1" are near the top of climatological max values for the time of year, helping to support efficient rainfall -- especially in any stronger showers/storms. While highest amounts are expected to be localized vs more widespread across the area, some locations have the potential to see 1"+ of rainfall by tonight. That said, more areas than not will likely see amounts stay around 0.5" or less. Several days of dry weather for much of the area has lead to improvement in flood conditions across impacted areas, but some areas could take a step back today -- primarily if any impacted areas see 1"+ of rainfall.

Rain chances will largely end this evening/early tonight as the system treks to our southeast. Ample low-level moisture will hang around behind, however, and mist/widespread fog appear increasingly likely later tonight into Saturday morning -- especially across interior areas of northern lower. Cooler temperatures move in behind the front with highs staying in the 50s on Saturday and lows potentially dipping into the low/mid 30s across parts of the area Saturday night. Afternoon highs look to rebound Sunday and Monday with most areas away from the Lake Huron shoreline climbing back into the 60s. Dry conditions are expected to persist through Monday before rain chances return in the early Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Anticipating clouds to continue increasing through the morning, but should hold to about 7,000ft CIGs before falling into MVFR later in the afternoon. RA and SHRA increase in coverage late this morning into the afternoon, which may lead to temporary increases in wind and decreases in CIGs and VSBYs. Activity should slowly cross the region from west to east through this evening. Any SHRA or TSRA should clear out later this evening, but will be replaced by a low cloud deck along with BR / FG potential accompanying sub 1,000ft CIGs. As such, will likely see IFR to even LIFR prevailing at most sites into Friday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ342. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-322.