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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

NOAM long-wave amplification continues to evolve this afternoon... featuring deepening eastern troughing downstream of burgeoning western ridging. Northern Michigan under the influence of the former, with embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low working rapidly east across the northern Great Lakes. Area of mostly light mixed precipitation associated with this wave, with mostly light snow across eastern upper Michigan, and rain at times mixed with snow across northern lower. A fairly mild day, driven by gusty southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front...with current readings ranging through the 30s.

Low pressure will continue to work off to the east as overhead mid/upper level troughing only deepens with time...helped along by arrival of rather vigorous shortwave trough digging south out of Canada on Wednesday. This will bring much colder weather and a return to lake-driven snows across the Northwoods by later tonight through Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Focus on lake snow evolution and temperature trends (give you a hint....downward) tonight and Wednesday.

Details:

Modified Arctic cold front set to drop steadily south across the area tonight...introducing much colder weather to northern Michigan for Wednesday. Still looking at a light rain/snow mix heading through this evening with marginal surface based temperatures. Passage of the front will quickly signal the development of lake processes as inversion level temperatures drop into the teens below zero by sunrise Wednesday. Convective boundary layer flow veers rapidly with the passage of the front, with intial west flow becoming northwest by morning...veering further to north-northwest during Wednesday (due north across eastern Lake Superior). Best lake parameters arrive after flow becomes more northerly within intense cold air advection regime. As mentioned, expect lake snows to develop quickly once cold air advection increases. Snow showers will especially target those favored north-northwest flow areas later tonight and Wednesday across northwest lower Michigan, with pattern recognition highlighting areas near and southwest of Grand Traverse Bay for most accumulations. Flow quickly becomes too northerly off Lake Superior...punting best snows into central upper Michigan (although this will set up a connection to those northwest lower snow belt locations). Decent lake parameters for sure, with above H8 centered convective depth and good synoptic moisture above that inversion level....with lift centered in the favored dendritic growth zone. Probably looking at several inches of snow by sunset Wednesday in those favored northwest lower Michigan areas mentioned above....with just minor accumulations elsewhere. However, even those areas seeing less snow will experience some travel difficulties with freezing of any lingering water on road surfaces and gusty winds producing localized areas of blowing/drifting snow.

Other big story will be those temperatures, with temperatures Wednesday likely slowly falling through the day...reaching the single digits and teens through the afternoon. Gusty winds, up and over 30 mph at times, will only make it feel considerably colder ...with wind chill values in the single digits either side of zero. While definitely cold, nothing too out of ordinary for the middle of January across the Northwoods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Definitely a period of more typical mid-January northern Michigan weather, with overhead troughing supplying a direct connection to reinforcing shots of modified Arctic Air through the extended. Passing waves within a very favorable over-water thermal structure supports periods of lake enhanced snow at times...some of which could be locally significant.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and snow evolution through the period.

Details:

Lake snows will steadily diminish Wednesday night as drying occurs through the convective cloud depth and inversion levels fall. Pretty good agreement next shortwave and weak surface refection arrives out of Canada later Thursday night into the start of the weekend. While overall synoptic moisture contribution is a bit limited and disjointed, a still very favorable over-water thermal environment should no doubt help develop lake snows. Trends support a southwest lake enhanced event to kick off later Thursday night into Friday morning, with flow veering with time Friday into Friday night/Saturday. Probably looking at several inches of additional snow in some of our favored lake areas later Thursday night into early Saturday, with much lighter accumulations elsewhere. Definitely more details to work out in the coming days, so please continue to monitor future forecasts...especially if you have travel plans to end this week.

Simply more of the same thereafter with additional relatively moisture starved clipper-type systems to occassionally drop southeast out of Canada right through the start of next week. Each wave will bring a reinforcing shot of modified Arctic air as well as additional lake enhanced snow concerns. Otherwise, not seeing any real significant widespread winter storms to affect our region. As one would expect given the above described pattern, temperatures will remain below normal...especially Thursday and again Sunday through Tuesday when several areas will not get out of the teens for high temperatures. Lows will be mostly in the single digits and teens, with some below zero readings likely Wednesday night and again early next week if skies clear and winds can go light.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

SCT and BKN CIGS will periodically keep all TAF sites between MVFR and IFR tonight through Tuesday with chances of LIFR ceilings at KCIU Wednesday morning. SHRASN progress to the east this evening followed by winds veering to the north overnight. SHSN spread tomorrow morning, keeping VSBY's between 2 and 6 miles at KMBL, KTVC, KPLN, and KCIU after 0900Z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for MIZ020-025-026-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ322. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.