textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy this afternoon through Friday. Windy and cooler temperatures Friday.

- Breezy conditions continue at times this weekend, with moderating temperatures Sunday into at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-advertised rainy and increasingly windy conditions on tap over the next 24-36 hours with current focus on two inbound areas of low pressure. The first currently sitting near the Manitoba/Ontario/Minnesota border and dropping southeast, while the second wave continues to trek northeast out of the south- central Plains. The parent waves of these features currently in the process of phasing upstream with the end result expected to be one larger area of sfc low pressure that crosses lower Michigan tonight before racing quickly east to New England through the day on Friday. Upper-level heights build behind this system over the weekend with renewed surface high pressure looking to renew drier conditions and gradually moderating temperatures into at least the middle of next week.

Forecast Details: Primary focus through Friday evening revolves around incoming widespread rain this afternoon through much of tonight. As this system pushes downstream on Friday, continued wrap around moisture will result in additional numerous showers and increasingly strong NNW winds. Strong cold air advection on Friday as a result, which will eventually bring an increased lake component (aiding in additional shower activity), especially Friday afternoon through Friday evening. PWs remain progged as high as 1-1.5" across the forecast area early this evening through the first half of the overnight hours -- some +1 to 3 SD above the climatological mean for mid-October. Should be a fairly steady moderate rain for much of the forecast area through tonight, especially beneficial for those in expanding drought across the eastern U.P. Favored QPF amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon up a bit from 24 hours ago -- largely ranging from 0.60 - 1.00". As one would expect, probabilities have also increased for localized amounts of 1.00"+, up to 50-80% across portions of the area, most notably in NNW flow lake effect area that see the most numerous continued shower activity Friday afternoon/evening. Some very low (<15%) probs for 2"+ amounts still evident over the same area.

Depending on how much shower activity remains after sunset Friday, which there will likely be at least some, a few inland/higher terrain locations could mix in or change over to some wet snow given continued cold advection with H8 temps progged as low as -6 to -8C. Think the primary limiting factors to this will be decreasing moisture depth with the loss of synoptic support and low-level winds almost out of the due north by this point, which will likely limit overall shower coverage across those typically colder higher terrain areas up the spine of north-central lower. Nonetheless, it's still within the realm of possibilities that a few spots coat the ground in the season's first snow.

Winds Friday become increasingly gusty out of the north-northwest. Frequent gusts expected to range from 25-35 mph area-wide with those nearest the coasts having the highest likelihood to gust 40+ mph at times Friday afternoon.

This weekend, drier weather expected to prevail with continued cool temperatures on Saturday (low-mid 50s) moderating for Sunday (low- mid 60s). That said, and while high pressure will largely be in control locally, low pressure passing well to north through Canada will result in enough of a pinched pressure gradient to bring the return of breezy to gusty winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. High temps Monday - Wednesday largely in the 60s with the next chance for rain returning toward Thursday of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Ongoing -RA will continue to spread across all TAF sites this evening combined with current MVFR CIGs lowering to IFR tonight. -SHRA and VCSH will continue Friday morning through the remainder of the forecast period causing temporary reductions in ceilings and visibilities. Current SW winds will back to the north overnight and build, gusting into the upper 20s by Friday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322.