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KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds, cold temperatures and brief lake effect snow tonight resulting in a couple tenths up to an inch over northern lower and 2 to 5 inches across eastern upper

- Widespread light to moderate snow returns Monday into Tuesday resulting in another couple inches

- The pattern remains unsettled, however temperatures will likely remain mild for the remainder of the week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 206 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Current surface observations show strengthening southwest winds with frequent gusts up to 25 to 35 mph as drier air continues to move in. Only a few spots of weak reflectivities remain, with clouds starting to scatter out in a few spots over northern lower. Water vapor satellite shows even drier air over WI making its way towards MI as an upper level trough approaches. Some moisture is evident farther north in the upper trough (northern MI/ Lk Superior an CAN). These differences in airmasses will contribute to better chances for lake effect snow over eastern upper (mainly north of M-28) and less chances for accumulating lake effect snow over northern lower. The upper trough will still swing through, allowing CAA to march through northern MI and bring stronger northwest winds (gusts up to 30 to 45 mph over land and stronger over water) tonight. Locally strong winds will be seen near Little Traverse Bay due to ideal wind direction and funneling down the bay. Due to the stronger west-northwest wind fields and cold LL temp profiles, some lake effect snow will be possible over northern lower - with the best chances for accumulations up to an inch or two over the northern parts of the snowbelt. With the better moisture and longer duration of ideal LL temp profiles over eastern upper, around 2 to 5 inches will fall tonight into early Sunday with locally higher amounts of +6" possible. Heavier snow will being late this evening and continue through early Sunday. Gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing snow for eastern upper, and this paired with times of heavy snow will lead to poor visibilities.

Lower visibilities will likely be seen over northern lower tonight as well, however snowfall intensities will not be as heavy and most of the current snowpack has a glaze of ice over it from recent rains this past week. This will result in times of patchy blowing snow under moderate snow and near areas of disturbed snowpack.

LL ridging will work to warm those LL temperatures Sunday morning over northern lower. This will decrease the temp differences over the lakes and therefore diminish and remaining lake effect snow showers. Light to moderate clusters or fragments of snow showers will linger over eastern upper through Sunday afternoon, with light accumulations during the day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 206 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Winds turn south early Monday as a warm sector starts to push into the western Great Lakes region. Some ideal upper level jet dynamics (left exit early Monday then right entrance late Monday) moves over northern MI and could force some widespread light to moderate snow during the day Monday ahead of the core of the warmer air. Some slight elevated FGEN could be at play as well, however this forcing will likely be on the weaker side. This is also evident by low/weak lapse rates on model soundings. All in all, higher confidence exists for only a couple inches in total falling on Monday. Clouds and light precipitation will be slow to exit Monday night into early Tuesday, with even some chances of freezing drizzle possible early Tuesday morning in some spots.

Southerly winds will return midweek as more moisture moves in late Wednesday. Precipitation will likely start as snow Christmas Eve night, however the warm sector will reach northern MI Christmas day resulting in high temperatures warming into the 40s and widespread clouds/light rain for most of the day. Precipitation chances linger through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 643 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Cold front swinging through this evening to exit APN area around 3z, and expect strongest winds (gust 45-50kts) till then. Could be some LLWS with very strong 40-50kt jet around 2kft, if it doesn't mix down, but have largely included this as gusts attm. Sustained winds become WNW/NW and remain strong...15-25kts through 3-6z before slowly tapering off by Sunday afternoon, backing to the W again late. Band of heavier snow ahead of front this evening to bring a few hours of IFR/LIFR visbys for PLN and possibly APN...with lower confidence in this reaching TVC. Do not expect it to reach MBL. WNW to NW flow lake effect SHSN should ramp up after 3z for the usual sites with MVFR cigs/visbys likely, though it's possible strong winds could BLSN visbys down to IFR/LIFR at times. Expect improvements to VFR Sunday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ086. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.