textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/ thunderstorm chances continue into today, locally heavy rain remains possible across northeast Lower.

- Seasonable temperatures persist through the end of the week with occasional shower chances as we head into the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Cold front will continue its slow progression across Michigan, bringing additional rounds of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. Guidance continues to suggest the front will track southeastward, but perhaps it may stall near Saginaw Bay? However, precipitation should diminish/ move largely out of the area by at least early afternoon if not sooner (some lingering chances near Saginaw Bay if the front does stall in that vicinity as being advertised). Northeast Lower, remains the area most favored for more locally heavy rainfall today, where more rounds of showers look to track across the region into perhaps the early afternoon, especailly far southeast areas near Saginaw Bay. Locations across northeast Lower have reported receiving around roughly 1 to 2 inches from last evening/ last nights showers. A few showers look possible Friday afternoon/evening mainly across northeast Lower between the departing front and the next incoming disturbance.

Forecast thinking beyond Friday remains largely unchanged. A broader longwave trough is still expected to become established across the Great Lakes through the weekend and into early next week, keeping any meaningful heat displaced to our south while maintaining a generally west to northwest flow aloft. Within that flow, subtle shortwaves are expected to rotate through the region, although confidence remains fairly low regarding the exact timing and placement of these disturbances. As a result, maintaining periodic chances for showers and a few thunderstorms from Friday night through Monday. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably cool for early August, though highs could trend a bit lower should a more persistent cloud cover and showery scenario ultimately materializes.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 655 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions expected across the northern Michigan terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. However, an hour or two of MVFR or IFR conditions are possible in stratus/fog early this morning. Additional fog may develop late tonight. Winds will generally be light, with near coastal TAF sites getting onshore lake breezes this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.