textproduct: Gaylord

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Quiet and seasonably mild conditions continue across the Northwoods early this morning as overhead mid level dry wedge remains impressive. All eyes directed at strong shortwave rotating northeast across the central Plains within southern portion of active split flow regime found across NOAM. Sharp baroclinic axis extends east from this wave, responsible for multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley. This wave will gradually shear out as it runs into overhead mid level confluence axis...preventing much northward push to that south displaced baroclinic zone/stationary front. However, increasingly moisture rich deep layer southwest flow only further matures with time, with favorable southeast Conus centered high pressure allowing a direct avenue for Gulf of American moisture and southern Plains warmth to spread north into the northern Great Lakes later this week into the start of the weekend. Couple this with additional mid level support rotating out of the desert Southwest, and the stage is set for perhaps some decent late week rains and even a few embedded thunderstorms. Developing zonal flavor to northern Conus upper level flow regime early next week will continue to lock any real cold air well to our north, with much modified Pacific air spreading into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Plenty, with initial focus on potential for a bit of freezing drizzle today. Attention then turns to rain, perhaps significant, and embedded thunderstorms later Friday into Friday night. Chances for any of these thunderstorms to become severe will also need to be addressed.

Details:

Dprog's/Dt's of nearly all available guidance continues a south displacement of that active baroclinic axis through today supporting any bonafide precipitation concerns remaining across the southern Lakes and Ohio Valley. However, low level moisture advection within maturing east flow north of this boundary will definitely help moisten the sub H8 levels...especially the further south one goes. Hi-res guidance derived soundings show rather saturated conditions through the low levels, with enough wind shear through the top of the moist layer to potentially support drizzle development...especially south of M-32. Unfortunately, those east winds will also usher in a considerably cooler airmass, theoretically supporting a window during the morning were drizzle will fall within a near or sub-freezing near surface environment. As such, cannot completely rule out some patchy freezing drizzle, especially in our typical colder interior regions. Hope is this won't be too big of a deal before temperatures rise at least a few degrees above freezing. Simply continue to monitor if you have any travel plans this morning. Abundant low level moisture continues into Thursday night, supporting fog and more patchy drizzle concerns. Again, something to monitor as overnight lows once again dip at least a few degrees below freezing.

Attention Friday into Friday night/early Saturday centers on increasing rain concerns as vertical moisture profiles increase substantially, with precipitable water values surging well over an inch by Friday afternoon. Ohio Valley stationary front races north as a warm front within deepening southwest flow, with strong isentropic upglide and rapid moisture advection/convergence likely driving increasing rain chances by Friday afternoon. Periods of showers expected to continue Friday night into the start of Saturday as shortwave trough and attendant surface reflection work northeast across the northern Lakes. Attendant cold front looks to potentially force quite the convective outbreak to our southwest later Friday, with storms racing northeast toward are area by later Friday night. Juxtaposition of best surface rooted instability and deep layer shear looks to remain to our west and southwest, with pattern recognition of decaying low level cape profiles as we head into the overnight strongly supporting a weakening trend to any deep convection as it moves into our area. Still, latest SPC day 3 convective outlook does place areas near and south of Traverse City within marginal risk wording for severe weather. Again, definitely not seeing any signals for widespread severe weather...but suppose an isolated severe wind gust or two will be possible in what should be gradually decaying deep layer convection. Perhaps biggest issue remains heavy rain and flooding potential, with signals for multiple areas of showers to traverse the area into Saturday morning. Could easily see rain amounts in excess of half an inch by sunrise Saturday, with trends supporting the heaviest axis of rain falling where a decent snow pack should remain. Temperatures spiking well up into the 40s and 50s (60?) Friday night and dewpoints running just a few degrees cooler will result in super efficient snowmelt, only adding to the runoff concerns. While not expecting any significant flooding concerns, definitely could be dealing with significant ponding in areas of poor or clogged drainage. Showers end from west to east on Saturday as the cold front passes the area. Morning temperatures well up into the 40s and 50s will slowly fall through the day.

Biggest story heading into next week continues to focus on those mild temperatures, with current trends supporting highs in the 40s and 50s Sunday, further warming into the 50s and lower 60s by Monday (just a bit cooler north of that big bridge). Temperatures attempt to slowly cool off heading into the middle of the week. Plenty of uncertainty remains with any additional rain chances, although there is at least some support for a significant system to visit the region toward the middle of the week as remnant southwest energy attempts to get picked up by digging northern stream flow. Plenty of time to work out those details in the coming forecast cycles.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 641 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Developing east-southeasterly low-level flow will contribute to gradually increasing low-level moisture today. Sub-VFR CIGs likely to spread across northern Michigan through the day, with some locations falling to IFR through tonight. Few light showers/drizzle also possible, especially this afternoon into tonight. Occasionally breezy east winds today turn lighter again tonight.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Low level moisture will continue to increase from south to north through the evening and overnight. Consequently, CIGS in the VFR to MVFR range this afternoon will likely lower to IFR and potentially LIFR for most locations. BR/FG a concern as well tonight, although guidance hinting at interior locations having the best potential. East winds through this afternoon subtly shift southeast and south into Friday. Chance for an isolated shower this afternoon before more widespread rain chances arrive later on Friday, along with isolated thunder chances.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.