textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally heavy rain the main concern.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the abundant moisture. The night is still young though with upstream activity beginning to increase in coverage to some extent. Nevertheless, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability (especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized flooding. Best potential today appears to focus south of M-32, where the better forcing and instability will reside. Deep-layer shear values remain relatively tame, and largely skinny CAPE profiles should limit the severe weather potential, though a robust storm or two is not out of the question due to the increasing heights aloft (>6km) and precipitation loading. Activity will wane this evening and overnight as the axis of anomalous moisture drifts south with the advancing frontal boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with temperatures near or a few degrees below seasonal averages behind this boundary.

A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flowon the outer periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level highwill swing through northern Michigan this weekend with little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high pressure dominates the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and areas of showers expected to impact taf locations this morning, with the most widespread showers across northern lower Michigan. Could see some embedded thunderstorms as well, with any storms perhaps dropping visibilities in locally heavy rain. Gradual improvement this afternoon as cigs begin to rise/scatter out and rain pushes off to the east. Skies continue to clear tonight. May see some late night fog/mist develop, especially if widespread rain occurs today. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.