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KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold conditions continue today, with subzero wind chills this morning and highs only in the teens to lower 20s. - Below normal temperatures continue with periodic chances for accumulating lake enhanced snow, beginning tonight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 238 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

An embedded shortwave continues to exit east of the area early this morning, effectively ending any remaining synoptic support for lake snow as it does so. Weak mid-level ridging builds in behind it today, allowing winds to steadily diminish and bring a temporary lull in lake snow activity. It was a bitterly cold start to the day, and although winds have eased some, the remain sufficient to drive wind chill values well below zero early this morning, with some locations dipping into wind chill values teens below zero. Cold weather precautions remain advisable for those doing activities outside/ spending time outside through the early afternoon as temperatures remain bitterly cold. Cold air remains firmly in place through the day as ridging settles overhead. Any lingering lake snow showers should taper off this morning, with increasing sunshine expected in the afternoon, particularly across interior northern Lower. despite the sunshine, temperatures will struggle to recover, with highs generally limited to the teens to lower 20s. Winds will continue to slowly ease, allowing wind chills to recover into the single digits by afternoon.

Attention then turns to tonight as broader-scale troughing begins to reassert itself across the Great Lakes. A fast-moving clipper looks to track into the region late tonight, bringing renewed chances for snow. Synoptic snowfall with this system appears generally light, but will be capable of producing a quick coating to locally higher amounts, particularly where it overlaps wit increasing lake influence. Temperatures will again fall into the single digits across eastern Upper and northeast Lower, with teens more common across northwest Lower. Wind chills will drop back into the negative single digits across eastern Upper, and into the single digits to low teens elsewhere, especially in areas that see partial clearing ahead of the next system.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 238 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Broader troughing remains entrenched across the region Friday through the weekend, with several shortwaves continuing to rotate through the mean flow. This pattern favors a mix of light synoptic snow and lake enhanced snowfall as each disturbance passes. While deep moisture remains limited, the Lakes will stay active, with periodic increases in convective depth and low- level convergence supporting bursts of lake enhanced snow, of course especially across traditional snowbelts. The interaction between passing waves and developing lake aggregate troughing will likely pay a role in focusing snowfall at times, potentially leading to localized higher totals.

Temperatures moderate slightly Friday into Saturday, with highs generally reaching the 20s before colder air returns Sunday. Highs Sunday are looking to remain in the teens for many locations wit overnight lows through the weekend largely ranging from the single digits to teens. Looking towards early next week, guidance continues to suggest the arrival of minimally modified Arctic air as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Gusty northwest winds would further enhance the cold feel with highs at the beginning of next week looking to struggle to climb out of the single digits...Lake snow showers would persist into this period, stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Largely MVFR CIGs will poke into VFR across the board... with the exception being CIU, which will likely hold marginal IFR to MVFR into this evening. Next system on the docket will bring snow into the sites closest to Lake Michigan and into CIU later this evening, bringing a return of MVFR to potentially IFR conditions. Winds pick up during the day Friday, adding BLSN into the picture. APN will likely hold away from the SN until later Friday morning. Light N winds flip S to SE tonight into Friday, with some 25kt+ gusts possible the later we go into the morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348- 349.