textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Periodic light rain/freezing drizzle chances today-tonight.

-Seasonably warm temperatures build across the Great Lakes region through Thursday with above freezing temperatures and melting snowpack.

-Low pressure system returns multiple weather types and potentially hazards Thursday night through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Strong midlevel jet maxima over the Pacific begins to influence conditions downstream, including the Great Lakes region this week. Mild weather builds through the midweek with periodic light precipitation chances today due to minor embedded height disturbances. At the surface, weak low pressure centered over Manitoba will extend a weak stalled boundary across northern Lake Superior today and continuing slight chances of precipitation favoring eastern upper.

Forecast Details...

Today...Midlevel ridging begins to push warmer air into the area from the southwest. H8 temperatures climb well above freezing in the +7-9 degree celsius range while surface high temperatures remain in the low to mid 30s. With warmer air aloft, there is the threat the threat of potential freezing drizzle in today's forecast as the previously mentioned stationary boundary remains stalled over Superior. High res guidance depicts light showers spreading south this afternoon with only a trace expected today. Highest probabilities for a glaze of ice remain across interior parts of northern lower and eastern upper where temperatures typically remain slightly cooler compared to counties adjacent to the shoreline.

Tonight...Surface level troughing tied to the previously mentioned low will progress eastward across northern Lake Superior tonight. Dry air advecting into the region of the backside of this low should keep the majority of the CWA dry tonight, but low level gusty flow with the aid of the lakes will keep low precip chances for the typical lake belts of northern lower and eastern upper. Again, only a few hundredths at most is expected, but combined with any potential wet surfaces from the daytime precip could lead to slick roads overnight as lows drop into the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Wednesday and Thursday...Guidance continues to depict midlevel closed low pressure deepening lee of the Rockies and progressing to the upper Plains region by Thursday. Warm temperatures persist Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s for most areas as the CWA is placed in the cyclone's warm sector. Widespread showers arrive Thursday with highest probs of QPF remaining around a quarter inch or less for most areas. Strong thermal gradient Thursday night behind the front will then create strong PGF winds and provide a quick lake effect response through Friday morning. At this time, highest probs of snowfall remain 1-3" for the snowbelts and less elsewhere, but ongoing focus remains on the quick drop in overnight temperatures that could lead to flash freeze issues on roadways. We will be sure to monitor this system as it makes its way towards the Great Lakes region.

Friday through Monday Outlook...Midlevel heights return to quasi- zonal this weekend into early next week with periodic chances of precipitation. High temperatures remain near normal for late December with highs in the mid 20s for most locations and sub- freezing H8 temperatures keeping any light showers tracking across the region as strictly snowfall. At this time, ensembles show no evidence of widespread or heavy snow, but continued near normal temperatures with periodic snow chances is likely to keep any snowpack remaining after Thursday across the Northwoods as we head into the holiday season.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Widespread MVFR CIGs early this morning may briefly dip to IFR at some of the terminals through midday. Improvement to VFR expected this afternoon at all TAF sites except for CIU, where higher probabilities for continued IFR/MVFR conditions continue. CIGs drop again tonight with prevailing MVFR expected area-wide.

Winds strengthen out of the southwest today with gusts as high as 25-35 kts at times through this evening. LLWS becomes likely mid-late afternoon into tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>348. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ349. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ322. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.