textproduct: Gaylord

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/ thunderstorm chances continue through tonight, locally heavy rain possible.

- Seasonable temperatures persist through the end of the week with occasional shower chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Broad troughing and its attendant cold front will continue making slow progress across northern Michigan through tonight into Thursday, bringing a few rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms along the way. For today through tonight, shower coverage is expected to steadily increase as deeper moisture spreads overhead and becomes increasingly coupled with stronger upper-level support. The better focus for more widespread showers/ thunderstorms gradually shifts southeast through the day, with the highest rainfall totals favored across northeast Lower, particularly toward the Saginaw Bay region. Localized heavier rainfall remains possible with WPC continuing to highlight mostly all of northern Lower Michigan for today. Guidance also continues to favor a little more forward progress with the front on Thursday, allowing the better shower chances to gradually exit southeast through the afternoon.

Looking beyond Thursday, overall forecast thinking remains largely unchanged, with the larger-scale trough expected to become established across the Great Lakes through the weekend into early next week. This should keep any meaningful heat suppressed to our south while also maintaining periodic opportunities for showers as subtle waves rotate through the mean west to northwest flow. That said, there continues to be little indication of any prolonged stretch of wet weather, with dry periods likely separating any passing disturbances and perhaps cooler temperatures as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Showers and a few TSRA develop tonight, persisting into Wed, ending at CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL during the day. Cigs/vsbys will lower, with IFR to MVFR conditions at all sites. Best chance for TSRA will be early Wed morning. Light winds overnight into Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.

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