textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Late season warmth continues through the end of September with highs in the 70s.

-Shower chances return to the region this Wednesday and Thursday.

-High pressure returns this weekend, supporting clear skies and quiet weather through the remainder of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Water vapor imagery displays large-scale midlevel troughing over the eastern CONUS that is associated with the northeastern cyclone impacting New England. Even with cyclonic flow occupying the Great Lakes Region, conditions remain quiet today as surface high pressure remains settled over the Wisconsin/Michigan Border. At the same time, an embedded shortwave develops this afternoon over the Northern Rockies and progresses towards the Midwest this week. As this wave lifts with time and remains very moisture starved, some light precipitation will be observed at most locations across the CWA this Wednesday and Thursday.

After the wave continues downstream, subsidence aloft returns high pressure this coming weekend to bring quiet conditions through the remainder of the forecast period. Influence from cool, post frontal Canadian air will lower temperatures back to climatological norms beyond Thursday with highs in the 60s as we head into October.

Forecast Details:

Monday and Tuesday...Even with broad cyclonic flow aloft, dry low level conditions supported by surface high pressure will keep weather rain-free through Tuesday afternoon. 850mb temperatures around 10 degrees continue to support seasonably warm temperatures with highs in the 70s this Monday and Tuesday. The only potential for active weather is the continuation of fog in and around marine zones due to warm waters warmth and radiational cooling overnight causing dew point depressions to fall.

Wednesday and Thursday...The aforementioned wave over the Northern Rockies will develop surface low pressure over the Central U.S. and extend a boundary through the northwoods early Wednesday through Thursday. Profiles remain relatively dry in the mid and low levels, meaning precipitation will struggle to reach the ground. Model guidance continues to indicate medium to high probabilities of total rainfall around a quarter inch for most areas of the CWA while our westernmost areas could observe higher amounts where the frontal boundary is expected to remain stalled, delivering some appreciable moisture after such a long dry stretch.

Friday through Sunday Outlook... The disheveled midlevel wave is expected to progress downstream Thursday night and return more of a zonal flow pattern over the Great Lakes Region this weekend. Surface high pressure builds over northern Ontario/Manitoba and begins to influence the CWA with a cooler and dry air mass. No precipitation is expected through the remainder of the week with temperatures returning to climatological norms for late October (highs in the 60s).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 506 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly burn off after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under mostly sunny/clear skies through this evening. Another round of MVFR to IFR producing fog/mist/stratus expected early Tuesday morning. Light winds, with local lake breeze development this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.