textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rain and strong storms possible today

- Warm, humid, and active weather ahead next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Trough axis stretches down the Pacific coast into northern California with a ridge axis over the Intermountain West; 594dm ridge centered over west Texas. Still broad troughing across the Midwest with embedded shortwaves in the flow -- one over Manitoba, one over western Ontario/northern MN, WI, Chicago/South Bend area, one over AR, another over Georgian Bay, and yet more downstream over Quebec and off the East Coast. 100kt NWly upper jet over the central US with yet stronger jet back out over the Pacific. Some moisture still trapped beneath the elongated trough axis from MN to northern MI...though better moisture/pwats spread from the Central Plains to the Mid MS Valley where southerly flow is interacting with a baroclinic zone. Flow remains relatively light overall, though...even in the low/mid levels, with 850mb/700mb jet maxes only topping out around 20-40kts, respectively, as of 5z. Still a bit of subtle theta-e advection into southeast Lower MI/Thumb region at this hour ahead of an occluded low slowly trekking eastward from central WI, with some mild convective activity hanging on across central/SE Lower and also near the Tip of the Mitt. High pressure otherwise in control of the northern Plains and much of central Canada.

Pesky trough will dig into the region a bit today...as surface low slowly meanders its way across the state...exiting into Canada overnight and leaving a baroclinic zone draped east to west across the center of the country. A couple perturbations in the flow this afternoon and evening could keep activity going into the overnight hours as well...but think things will largely quiet down with time into Friday morning as ridging builds in. There are some signals for a subtle perturbation to ride the lingering boundary into the Midwest going into Friday afternoon; primary surface response attm appears to remain to our south but model guidance has some indication of some subtle PV activity up our way, too. Upper low digging into the PacNW will then amplify ridge axis from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley/Midwest starting Saturday afternoon...and will have to keep an eye out for upstream warm advection activity to develop Saturday night into Sunday, with some signals this may try to sneak into the area. Overall, anticipate the pattern will amplify even further Sunday into Monday with the ridge axis building further northward into the OH Valley/Great Lakes region. Increased return flow into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes early next week should set up a good Gulf tap...setting the stage for continued activity across the Upper Midwest as a PV maximum ejects into central Canada in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Would like to say this will be the end of it, but ridge axis looks to generally hold steady across the eastern US through the period...suggesting a warmer/humid pattern will be on tap for the eastern US into the holiday weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Showers/storms today...still anticipate additional showers/storms today with PV maxima wrapping into the region. One area should be focused across the EUP/Tip of the Mitt region, associated with a warm front/deformation axis.

Deep layer shear will probably be lacking for us, with stronger flow likely remaining to our south. However, don't think we are out of the woods, noting we will have a surface low crossing the area (enhances directional shear) and the pressure gradient looks weak enough overall to support lake breezes sneaking in off Lake Huron today, especially with any diurnal heating. Weak flow could also support development of outflow boundaries and storm interactions that could further support the idea of another round of localized, brief spin-ups that could be hard to spot. We are also very moist/saturated in the low-levels as I write, which will allow us to destabilize much quicker and with less heating/sun, and could have some spicy convection even this morning...with signals for further destabilization this afternoon as the PV maxima move overhead. Low- level cape should be quite strong this afternoon (for vorticity stretching purposes)...though 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE are possible this afternoon across northeast Lower, especially near Saginaw Bay. Primary concern with any of the spicier storms will be hail and damaging downburst winds with some dry air aloft for entrainment. And those potential spin-ups.

Heavy rain will also be a concern today, given pwats still around or above an inch and relatively weak flow that should support somewhat slow cell movement overall, especially if we end up with boundary collision nonsense that could lead to multiple storms over an area. Warm cloud layer depth should remain around 3km, give or take, supportive of efficient rainfall as well, and that east-west-ish boundary in the area still worries me a bit for training or persistent storms, perhaps not all that dissimilar to what occurred upstream over WI yesterday where storms were generally slow-moving and dumped quite a bit of rain.

Warm (hot?), humid, and active next week...Attm, guidance seems to be coming into better alignment on the evolution of the pattern for next week, with ridge starting to build in Saturday/Sunday and especially Monday into Tuesday...with potential for the 594dm 500mb height contour to knock on our doorstep, or perhaps walk right on in, if the most aggressive guidance is correct...which has 850mb temps as high as 22-25C trying to sneak in for midweek. This, combined with abundant Gulf moisture, signals potential for increasingly dangerous conditions next week (apparent temperatures into the 100F+ range if the current forecast verifies, perhaps for a couple days or more across parts of the area, esp the further south you go), especially for those especially susceptible to heat/humidity and without good ways to stay cool. Note that water temps on the Great Lakes and many of their nearshores are still in the 50s for a lot of locations (though things should warm to some degree, especially in the shallower waters) and hypothermia is more likely to occur at water temps below 60F.

HOWEVER...the same caveats I have been discussing remain: we may still be close enough to the perimeter of the ridge that convection/ convective leftovers tone down the temperatures at times through the week. (Some guidance has been leaning this way, and some of the AI guidance is a little more subdued with the ridge than their deterministic counterparts...though still quite warm.) Think some MCS development is possible upstream Saturday/Sunday and may need to keep an eye out for this to track into our area, though the setup would be more favorable for us to get in on it/its remnants if flow were a bit more parallel to the thickness contours. Think some of this will depend on how quickly and strongly the ridge amplifies. The Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe will be worth watching as well -- for temperature considerations and active weather purposes -- as energy ejects from the broader trough and heads north toward Hudson Bay; this is when the ridge axis should start to tilt a little more to the east as well, going into the latter half of next week...and a slightly less amplified ridge axis could leave us a little more susceptible to convective activity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 736 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Flight conditions remain primarily MVFR and IFR this afternoon as -SHRA with embedded -TSRA move across the region. Low pressure is expected to track southwest to northeast today, resulting in winds continuously backing throughout the day. Precipitation will depart the region this evening, followed by BKN and OVC skies slowly deteriorating at the end of the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.