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KEY MESSAGES

- Largely dry weather carrying past midweek with a slight warming trend.

- Next rain chances set for later Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: This afternoon, closed upper-level low pressure sits downstream over far eastern Canada/New Brunswick with longwave trough axis draped down the East Coast. Upstream ridging ejecting lee of the Rockies will continue to result in slow height rises locally. Embedded upstream shortwave over the Plains will make headway across the mid-MS Valley and southern Great Lakes tonight- Tuesday, bringing inclement weather chances downstate, but largely miss much of APX's footprint as high pressure prevails.

Forecast Details: Northwest flow continues this afternoon, breezy at times, especially near the big lakes. While over-lake thermal gradient remains sufficient for lake induced clouds/light snow showers, a very dry airmass exists above a sub 5kft (and shrinking) inversion. So while an occasional snow shower will likely continue to dot the map (especially across portions of the eastern U.P.), not expecting much in the way of accumulation or impact. Those chances dwindle further tonight with more breaks in the clouds and lighter winds expected to prevail. Should set up for a decent radiational cooling night where clear skies present themselves. Lows largely in the 20s area-wide with at least low probabilities for some of the typically colder spots to fall into the upper teens.

By Tuesday morning, low pressure to our southwest should be driving rain/snow to our south and southwest. Focus will largely revolve around monitoring just how far north precip can make it. Latest trends continue to support this staying to our south with just an uptick in cloud cover noted during the day, primarily south of M-72. High temps in the 30s to low 40s area-wide.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 135 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Pattern Forecast: High pressure continues to dominate locally through the midweek time frame. By Thursday, mid-upper level wave and attendant sfc reflection are expected to be cruising well to our north across Canada. Latest trends support a cold front tied to this system crossing northern MI on Thursday -- largely supporting renewed rain shower chances Thursday afternoon/evening. Post-frontal cold air not all that impressive with daily high temperatures stilled progged in to the 40s area-wide Friday through the upcoming weekend.

Day 2-3 (Tue. night through Wed. night): Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Coldest night expected Tuesday night with upper teens and low 20s inland to mid-20s near the coasts. Highs Wednesday back into the low 40s area-wide under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Day 4-7 (Thursday - Sunday): Focus through the extended revolves around the Thursday - Thursday night time frame as aforementioned upstream cold front crosses northern MI. This supports increasing rain chances from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. While cold air behind the front is far from impressive, there's enough support to reintroduce snow shower chances Friday through Friday night, primarily across eastern upper and the tip of the mitt where lingering synoptic moisture is better and over-water thermal gradient is better sufficient.

While some uncertainty exists regarding another northern stream wave late in the weekend, largely dry conditions are expected to return.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Lake clouds lingering across parts of the northern Michigan terminal area this evening, but a downward trend in coverage will continue. In any event, VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF valid time. A ridge of surface high pressure will slide across the area during the period, with winds trending light/variable.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.