textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances return this weekend, primarily Sunday morning into Sunday evening.

- Dry start to next week with rain chances returning by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes today, eventually pushing east of the region by the back half of the weekend as troughing progresses overhead. The primary shortwave will pass just to our north as it crosses Lake Superior/Ontario on Sunday with a second, convectively-augmented shortwave set to track across the far southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elongated low pressure stretching from Hudson Bay down to the mid Mississippi Valley will be supported by the aforementioned features and trek eastward on Sunday. Surface high pressure looks to build in behind this to start next week. Confidence continues to increase in troughing settling into the region during the middle of next week.

Forecast Details:

The primary forecast concern is the return of rain chances and perhaps a few storms this weekend. Latest observations and guidance continue to push back anticipated arrival time for said chances, as well as decreased confidence in more widespread rain chances -- which has been discussed in previous forecast cycles. Aforementioned split support aloft contributes to this, and is expected to support better rain/storm chances to our north and south both today and Sunday. While cloud cover will begin to increase across the area today, dry weather is anticipated across northern Michigan into this evening. Low chances exist for showers near M-55 and across the eastern U.P. overnight, but our best rain chances will come on Sunday. While coverage appears it will be less than once thought for this weekend, scattered showers and a few storms are still expected later Sunday morning into Sunday evening. Brief heavy downpours and lightning will be the primary concerns, and severe weather is not expected.

After rain chances come to an end Sunday night, dry weather is expected to start the week as high pressure builds in. Seasonable highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are also anticipated to continue through the first half of next week. Our next round of rain chances will move in by the middle of next week as troughing works into the region, also bringing some cooler temperatures through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR condtions look to continue through the night with some chances for patchy fog at some terminals (CIU, PLN, and APN). West- southwest winds look to remain generally light with perhaps a few gusts around 15 knots in the afternoon/ evening Saturday as the next round of shower/ thunderstorm chances develop west to east through Saturday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.