textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain continues to taper off this afternoon, leaving dry weather through the rest of this week.

- Isolated to scattered rain potential this weekend, but mainly dry weather expected to continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Strong troughing with its axis currently through Ontario and the Upper Midwest will punch overhead this evening and tonight, quickly vacating to the east by Thursday morning. Ample forcing aloft generated by this wave will continue to support the associated surface cyclone as it pivots across Hudson Bay and into northern Quebec. Subsidence on the backside of this system will build surface high pressure into the region through the second half of this week and into this weekend. Troughing looks to swing back overhead by the second half of the weekend with a cold front potentially working across the area in the late Saturday/early Sunday timeframe. While still several days away, this appears to be the start of a more progressive pattern next week with high pressure in place for a short period of time Monday before another wave progresses over the Great Lakes by midweek.

Forecast Details:

With rain showers moving off to our southeast this afternoon, dry weather will set in across the Northwoods this evening through at least until the end of the week -- and perhaps a several day stretch into next week for some areas. The cold front lagging this morning's activity will eventually swing south of the area later today with northwest winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into northern Michigan on Thursday. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s are in store with mostly sunny skies. With little sensible weather over the next few days, perhaps the main focus through the remainder of the work week will be the chilly temperatures that are anticipated Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure overhead will set up ideal radiational cooling with clear skies and calm winds, potentially allowing localized low-lying areas within the higher terrain to dip into the upper 30s and low 40s with widespread 40s and low 50s elsewhere.

As discussed by the overnight forecaster, the aforementioned wave expected to punch across us this weekend appears it will be moisture starved and may struggle to generate widespread rain/thunder chances across the area. Isolated to scattered activity is most likely later Saturday into early Sunday, but there's potential most areas remain rain-free this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 70s and even low 80s will be several degrees above average as we head into the middle of September.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Expect VFR to prevail through the period, though possible we could see a period of MVFR cigs at times, esp between 10-18z. Non-zero chance of fog overnight, esp from PLN to APN to TVC where there was rain today, and if this develops, could see IFR to LIFR cigs/visbys. Non-zero shower chances, particularly for CIU this evening but could develop elsewhere. Winds remain breezy from the W to NW, and will shift back and forth a bit with fronts passing through (one as of 0z/10th, with another possible around 2-4z and 10-15z); winds could stay more W/SW at MBL tonight into early morning, generally 5-15kts, and possible we will see land breezes develop at TVC/MBL in particular tonight, with lake breezes likely Thursday afternoon. Think 20-30kt winds aloft will continue to mix down overnight but could turn into LLWS around 2kft+, and should diminish tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for LSZ321.