textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances and coverage increase tonight into Sunday with locally heavy rainfall possible along/south of M-72.

- Additional rain and seasonably warm temperatures expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Highly-amplified ridging spanning from central Canada down into the Midwest and Great Lakes will continue to slide east through the remainder of this weekend into early next week. Multiple waves/jet maxima embedded in the mid/upper-level flow look to progress overhead through Sunday. Meanwhile, south-southwest low-level flow will advect an increasingly moist airmass into the Great Lakes as a warm front looks to lift into the Great Lakes and drape across the middle of the state by early next week. More organized shortwaves may slide over the region during the middle of next week before amplified ridging appears it will grasp much of the central CONUS heading into the holiday weekend.

Forecast Discussion:

As the previous forecaster discussed, many rounds of showers and perhaps a few storms are expected across northern Michigan over the next several days with the primary concern being localized heavy rainfall potential late tonight into Sunday. Widespread light rain across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan continues to work towards northern Michigan this afternoon with latest obs/guidance reinforcing belief that measurable rainfall greater than a few hundredths of an inch is unlikely from this activity before sunset. Initially dry low-level air may make it difficult for falling precip to reach the surface at first, and ongoing rain may continue to weaken over the next few hours as it works into western portions of the area.

Regardless, rain chances/coverage is expected to increase with time tonight -- especially late tonight through Sunday morning. Warm advection will help generate repeated, widespread showers and a few storms along/north of the aforementioned boundary. The main question at this time will be exactly where these showers will form and train as latest guidance creeps the favored corridor slightly further south with time. That said, the best chances for steady rain will come along and south of M-72. PWATs around 1.8" will support efficient rainfall, and locations that see training showers could see 1"+ of rainfall by Sunday afternoon. While potential is low, localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

Looking ahead, additional rounds of showers and a few storms will be possible through much of the upcoming week as aforementioned waves work across the region. Seasonably warm temperatures are also expected across the area through the first half of the week. While rain chances may impact the extent of high temperatures, afternoon readings may warm into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 449 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through this evening with some light showers falling out of a relatively high based cloud deck. Expect cigs to gradually lower during the early morning on Sunday, likely producing widespread MVFR to IFR conditions into Sunday morning. Likely to even see some vis restricting mist develop as well. Additional showers expected at times right through Sunday, although confidence in overall coverage and organization of those showers remains low. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.