textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering nuisance light lake effect precip possible at times this weekend.

- More sun returns Monday with a notable warming trend for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, troughing remains anchored over the Northeast with ridging prevalent upstream across the Plains. Heights aloft slowly in the process of rising locally, with that trend continuing into early this week as ridging builds into the Great Lakes. At the surface, higher pressure starting to filter in from the west becomes centered overhead Sunday afternoon before sagging into the Ohio Valley early-mid week. Primary focus revolves around continued potential for mainly light lake effect showers/drizzle this weekend, followed by a return of well-above normal temperatures for much of next week. Next chance for more widespread precip looks to hold off until late week, and moreso next weekend.

Forecast Details: Low-level flow out of the northwest this afternoon with H8 temps around -4C...still enough to generate a lake response evidenced by weak radar returns across parts of northwest lower. Despite higher surface pressures working in from the west, not a whole lot to stop this from continuing tonight and perhaps all through way through at least the first half of Sunday. Dominant precip type should largely be rain/drizzle given warmer surface temperatures and a shallow moisture depth. Suppose a few flakes could mix in across inland areas, but with little to no impact anticipated. Any of this lingering nuisance activity should wind down entirely by later Sunday and especially Sunday night.

Noticeable warming trend begins Monday and continues through the remainder of the forecast period. More sun expected for at least he early and middle portions of next week as well. High temps Monday in the low 50s, with many northern lower spots warming into the mid- upper 50s for Tuesday onward. Normal mid-November highs range from 40-45 F area-wide. Next chance for rain returns Thursday as energy ejects out of the Rockies ans passes by to our northwest, likely dragging a frontal boundary across the area locally. Longer range trends favor more active weather potential returning for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Light lake effect -SHRA will continue within the vicinity of KTVC through 06z. Low chances for terminal impacts, besides MVFR cigs. MVFR cigs will persist through the end of the period. KCIU will be the exception, likely seeing cigs lift to 4 kft after 05z. Generally N/NNW winds will persist through the period. Winds of 10 to 12kts with G15 to 20kts will diminish to AOB 10kts after 02z at all terminals. VFR conditions will likely return after 18Z Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ347>349.