textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Continued favorable fire weather conditions today

-Frost/freeze concerns again tonight and Thursday night.

-Seasonably cool and quiet conditions continue through the remainder of the work week with minimal precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Midlevel closed low pressure centered over Hudson Bay with an attached longwave trough extending southward continues to influence the Great Lakes Region. Cold, dry air from the north will keep temperatures seasonably cool for this time of year, with highs remaining in the upper 40s to low 50s today through Thursday. At the same time, strong midlevel flow currently over the central CONUS extending through the Ohio Valley will prevent moisture from advecting into Northern Michigan through the midweek. Only chance of precipitation returns toward the end of the work week as small embedded height waves pivot along contours through the Great Lakes Region. Enough energy will produce some light scattered precipitation through this weekend to accompany this seasonably cool weather as we head into mid May.

Forecast Details:

Favorable fire weather conditions continue today... Conditions remain the same as yesterday as dry low-level atmospheric air will result in favorable fire weather again. Latest high-resolution guidance depicts surface dew points falling into the teens this afternoon due to efficient daytime mixing down to the surface. Temperatures at 850mb below freezing will keep highs in the upper 40s to low 50s again via adiabatic heating. Winds of 10-15 knots a few thousand feet above the surface will mix down, resulting in gusts around 20 mph.

Frost/freeze concerns remain for tonight and Thursday night... With 850mb temperatures remaining below freezing overnight and mostly clear skies, efficient radiational cooling processes will drop lows to the low 30s across the CWA. Typically colder areas such as interior Northern Lower and Eastern Upper are expected to drop below freezing tonight while areas closer to marine environments will only experience frost development as their lows remain in the low 30s.

Seasonably cool temperatures and light lingering precipitation are expected this weekend... No impactful weather is anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period as well-advertised troughing keeps temperatures slightly below normal for mid-May and moisture remains cut off to our south. A few embedded height disturbances provide enough energy to produce light precipitation at times Thursday through Sunday. While the majority of the time will remain mostly cloudy, localized areas observing a few hundredths of measurable rainfall are likely. Most of the CWA will only observe enough rainfall to wet pavement until an embedded shortwave develops a cold front and sweeps across the region Sunday morning. Subsidence aloft will likely return next week, keeping most areas dry with high pressure and temperatures in the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR condition through this taf cycle, with just some passing high based clouds and a developing higher based cumulus later this morning and afternoon. Northwest winds today, a bit gusty during the afternoon. Winds go light again tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 021>024-026>030-032>036-098-099. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ020-025-031- 041-042. MARINE...None.