textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy Monday with showers/storms arriving late in the day and continuing Monday night.

- Cooler Tuesday onward, with below freezing overnight low temperatures mid-late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging continues to build across the Great Lakes this afternoon with sfc high pressure sagging in from the northeast. Ridging slides east Monday with solid WAA ramping up locally in advance of low pressure trekking through the Plains. This system crosses northern MI late in the day Monday into Tuesday morning, with increased shower/storm chances area-wide. Beyond this, upper troughing dominates Tuesday through much of the remainder of the forecast period with daytime high temperatures trending below normal and overnight lows falling below freezing at times across parts of the area.

Forecast Details: Initial focus tomorrow revolves around potential elevated fire weather concerns. That said, uncertainty exists around how low RHs drop tomorrow with increasing WAA and eventual moisture increase , despite lots of dry air in place this afternoon through tonight. Gut feeling is there'll be a window in there during the day tomorrow where lower RHs (potentially nearing 30%) and increasingly gusty southeast winds overlap to yield elevated fire weather issues - - this particularly the case across sections of northeast and north- central lower, but may squeeze into parts of northwest lower where downsloping maximizes temperatures (but also the area where deeper moisture is progged to arrive first). All told, a breezy/windy and mild day on tap tomorrow, with some fire issues not out of the question.

Shower and potentially storm chances arrive as early as Monday afternoon, especially across far southwestern reaches of the forecast area. Those chances increase further and begin to build northeast across the remainder of the forecast area late Monday afternoon through Monday night. While instability will struggle mightily, deep layer bulk shear values in excess of 40 kts make it worth monitoring future convective trends. SPC Day 2 severe weather outlook keeps a marginal risk on our southwestern doorstep, but wouldn't take much in the way of instability to potentially yield stronger storm chances. Given the potential convective nature of this precip through Monday night aided along by an increasingly strong LLJ, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in areas that see repeated rounds of efficient rain. Latest probabilistic guidance continues to focus the highest potential for 1"+ of QPF across sections of northwest lower, including parts of Manistee/Wexford counties that are still dealing with areas of high water.

The bulk of lingering shower chances exit off to the east through Tuesday morning with cooler temperatures set to prevail through much of next week. While much of the week looks to feature dry conditions, latest trends bring several weak systems at various points through the late week/early next weekend time frame that'll be worth watching for at least some low end rain chances. Likely the biggest concern will be overnight low temperatures, especially Wednesday through Friday night when temperatures have the potential to fall into the 20s across much of the forecast area. As the prior forecaster alluded to, growing season running ~a week or so ahead of schedule may pose some frost/freeze concerns, especially across the typically sensible agriculture areas of northwest lower MI.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR into Monday afternoon, then worsening Monday evening. Pretty quiet from an aviation standpoint into much of Monday. High pressure will move off to the east, and southerly breezes increase into Monday. Mid and high clouds will increase later in the day. Showers/perhaps TSRA will push in from the west Monday evening. MVFR conditions will develop, and at least brief IFR will be possible (especially MBL/TVC...which also have the best chance for TSRA).

LLWS develops Monday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ322. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for LSZ321.