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KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture increases Tuesday into early Wednesday with showers and embedded storms.

- Gusty winds expected on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

High pressure dominates tonight into Monday with tranquil weather and a beautiful day expected for the Mackinac Bridge Walk. Only weather feature will be a few areas of fog tonight, quickly dissipating after sunrise.

Sfc high pressure begins to slide east later Monday, as ridging aloft slides overhead by early Tuesday consequent of approaching PacNW energy ejecting into the Plains. Initial batch of warm and moisture advection expected on Tuesday, focusing across the E UP and adjacent areas, spreading south with time later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moisture is expected to be quite anomalous, and so a wetting rain is possible given the atmospheric variables and mechanisms remain as progged. Unclear how convective some of this activity will be or how much of the instability will be utilized, which will directly correlate with rain rates. Nevertheless, current forecast has modest to healthy rains overspreading the region Tuesday night. Shower chances remain into the early portions of Wednesday most likely, although appears low level moisture hangs around through much of the day with dewpoints in the 60s, with increasingly windy conditions.

In addition to the precipitation chances, combination of sfc high pressure sliding off to the east and approaching low pressure mid week will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increasing winds aloft. Consequently, sfc winds will increase, with breezy southwest to west winds on Wednesday. Current progged soundings from GFS bufkit show ~20-30KTs of momentum transfer, resulting in 25 to 35 mph wind gusts on Wednesday.

Cool advection behind this system will knock down temperatures across the region some 10 degrees or so, although not too far off from climo norms. Temps will be in the mid to upper 60s across the E UP and interior northern lower with low 70s in spots. Breezy conditions are expected as well. Friday will be beautiful with temps in the 70s and plenty of sun.

Interesting pattern upcoming in the extended this weekend and beyond. Models hinting at several areas of troughing, one to the north across Canada and one potentially digging somewhere across the Plains. Both ECMWF and GFS suggest corridor of moisture advects northward with the potential for rounds of rain. Uncertainty is quite high though, with some low probs (10-20%) for 0.5" of rain through the weekend and NBM precip probs at 30-40%. Meanwhile, deterministic guidance is quite bullish across northern Michigan and the adjacent Upper Midwest in regards to rain/storms. We'll have to see how all these pieces play together in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Afternoon SCT and FEW Cu field will dissipate this evening, providing mainly clear skies overnight with high level clouds building from the west. Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period aside from some patchy BR development overnight at KCIU, KAPN, KPLN, and KMBL dropping VSBY's to MVFR and potentially IFR categories. Winds remain light with continuously variable directions tonight before turning to the south to southeast Monday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.