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KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-zero wind chills continue tonight, mainly eastern U.P. and interior northern lower.

- Widespread light snow returns across much of northern lower on Wednesday. Some enhancement in southwest flow snow belts.

- Lake effect/enhanced snow continues at times Wednesday night through the remainder of the week.

- Another shot of frigid temperatures late week into the weekend (coldest Friday-Saturday).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 227 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad troughing anchored across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with ridging over the West Coast. A couple of shortwave perturbations/clippers set to cross northern MI Wednesday - Wednesday night. Lake effect snow likely to continue beyond Wednesday night through much of the forecast period, coinciding with another blast of frigid temperatures/wind chills late this week into the weekend.

Forecast Details: Lingering light lake effect snow showers in the process of reorienting themselves across southwest flow snow belts early this afternoon as low level winds gradually back. A localized 0.5" or so possible in these areas through late this evening, but with continued localized significant visibility reductions given continued blowing snow. By later tonight focus turns to an incoming wave set to support widespread snow across much of lower Michigan. Locally, the bulk of snow expected to be light with accumulations between 06z tonight and 15z Wednesday ranging from generally an inch or less north of M-72 and a general 1-2" south of there. Perhaps some locally higher amounts near 3" in southwest flow enhancement areas from Manistee up the coast to Cross Village.

Hot on the heels of this system comes another clipper set to arrive late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This should provide a boost in synoptic support for additional lake enhanced snow showers, heaviest across the typical west flow snow belts. Some localized 2- 5" amounts appear possible later Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, along with an uptick in breezy winds, especially near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

Temperatures largely in the single digits and low teens currently with wind chills in the single digits below zero. As winds continue to subside through the evening, most areas should see wind chills climb into the single digits above zero overnight -- with the exception being the eastern U.P. and interior northern lower -- likely stuck in the single digits below zero. High temps Wednesday in the upper teens to upper 20s area-wide, although still made to feel colder than that with wind chills in the single digits and teens much of the day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 227 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

No signs of winter slowing down through the long term forecast period. Lake effect snow likely to continue Thursday through the upcoming weekend with the bulk of accumulation favored in west- northwest/northwest flow snow belts -- although growing ice cover over northern Lake Michigan and incoming cold resulting in very small snowflake size likely limits this to some extent. The bigger story likely to revolve around that next shot of frigid temperatures arriving Thursday night through at least Saturday. H8 temps progged as cold as around -28 C -- some 2 to 3 SD below the late January climatological mean. Thursday night low temps likely to fall below zero area-wide with wind chills early Friday morning ranging to -15 to -25 F. Similar wind chills anticipated through much of the day Friday with air temps struggling to reach above the low single digits above zero. Some "moderation" for Saturday, although single digit high temperatures expected to continue with wind chills in the single digits to low teens below zero.

Early next week, trends support the core of coldest air breaking down. While still cold, suppose a relative "warming" trend will be welcomed by many. Highs progged to climb into the teens above zero.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

WSW flow lake effect bands remain a nuisance this afternoon, reaching as far north as MCD and possibly CIU...but think these will taper off a bit after 18-20z...and low chance for anything at APN. Generally VFR/MVFR outside of bands but IFR expected beneath bands, esp with BLSN...and LIFR possible with heaviest ones (concern for PLN). Tonight...things may not entirely quiet down before next batch of snow moves in from the south around 9-12z with MVFR to IFR conditions expected with this. Winds today remain 15-20kts gusting 25-30kts from the W/WSW, only slowly tapering into tonight. Still unclear on track of low pressure but expect winds tonight/early AM to go light/variable or light SE, becoming SW again behind front near 18z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ031. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.