textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of rain and freezing rain late tonight into Saturday. Moderate icing possible. Additionally, minor flooding across the Manistee and Rifle river.

- Turning colder and breezy to windy with lake effect snow Sat night into Sun.

- Few additional snow chances early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

High pressure builds down across Hudson Bay tonight, shifting slowly eastward through the day on Saturday. Meanwhile, upper low and low pressure system moves from ~MO-IA into Lake Michigan. As a result, we'll have another case of warm advection and frontogenetical forcing resulting in a swath of steady rains with values ~0.50-1.0" across northern MI, aided by approaching diffluent/divergent flow aloft. Indication in some guidance of a broader swath or two of higher QPF values, one north of the main area of frontogenetical forcing, and another from potentially some convectively inspired rain rates farther south near Saginaw Bay (assuming the marginal instability makes it within that vicinity, more than likely this healthier swath will remain south of our area). We'll have to see how these nuances play out, but generally 0.50-0.75" of precipitation, with the potential for locally higher.

In regards to river rises/flooding, still minor flooding for the Rifle and Manistee rivers (close to moderate on the Manistee river) with other rivers rising as well. Cheboygan EM called a little worried about the Cheboygan river, which is nearing record values, and Gladwin county EM is a little worried as well. Worth keeping an eye on all rivers going forward, especially if heavier rains materialize.

Shifting into winter mode again, colder low level sfc temps, largely across the Straits and northward into the eastern UP, but also across interior portions of northern lower MI, will result in another round of freezing rain across the region with this incoming system. Most efficient icing will be later tonight through the the morning on Saturday, with a glaze to a tenth or two across the interior of northern lower, and near a quarter of an inch across eastern upper. There are a few pluses and minuses with this forecast, some sleet may try to mix in across eastern upper limiting a little of the icing. Additionally, where does the better QPF axis and thus better icing potential set up. Interestingly, the FRAM accumulation for the HREF (I know, grain of salt sort of) is only a little lower than the 1:1 rain to freezing rain ratio. I surmise this is due to the breezy conditions (gusts up to ~35 mph) and relatively deep low level cold layer that may aid in efficient icing. All this being said, the headline thought process will be to upgrade the watch across eastern upper to an ice storm warning with advisories across northern lower. This may not be the most impactful ice event, but with the icing that has already happened across the eastern UP (unclear whether that will all melt off by this next round) and our freezing rain history over the last few weeks, going to play it on the more cautious side, and also match up nicely with MQT.

Upper low slowly deepens and moves off to the northeast from the Upper Midwest into southeast portions of Canada, and thus, sfc low pressure follows suit. Consequently, winds shift to the northwest Saturday night into Sunday, becoming breezy to windy, with colder temperatures and lake effect snow showers. Very minor accums possible across snowbelts.

General troughing takes hold early next week as ridging builds across the West. At least one perturbation within the flow will produce the chance for snow showers while temperatures remain below average. Zonal flow and increasing heights likely warm the region to some extent mid to late next week (depending on the equatorward extent of a frontal boundary), but there is a lot of uncertainly with the exact temperatures. Additional precip chances? You bet.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Gradual improvement at all locations heading through today, with more widespread high end MVFR to possibly VFR conditions by later this afternoon into the evening. Winds become gusty west to northwest today, with winds subsiding later this afternoon and evening while turning east through tonight becoming gusty after 06Z with gusts 25- 35 knots possible...LLWS will be a possibility around the end of the period. Precipitation chances increase overnight with conditions expected to deteriorate as a result. Freezing rain will be a possibility across PLN and CIU, with low chances across the rest of the terminals, resulting in mostly rain.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MIZ016>018-021>024-097>099. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ027>030. Ice Storm Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.