textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder temperatures today with snow showers later this afternoon into Saturday.

- Moderating temperatures heading into next week; active and wet pattern developing mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A shot of colder air settles in northern Michigan today as high pressure builds south out of western Canada, keeping much of the region struggling to warm much at all today. In fact, many spots will have a tough time even getting to freezing, especially across interior and eastern Upper. Meanwhile, a broader upper-level trough swings overhead through tonight into Saturday, and while moisture is lacking overall, a few waves sliding through the flow combined with some steeper mid-level lapse rates and just enough over lake instability will support periods of light snow. Expect an uptick in snow shower activity later today into tonight, with modest lake enhancement in the typical north- northwest flow belts (especially Grand Traverse Bay region and south, eastern Upper favoring Chippewa County, and areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline as things kick off initially). Accumulations look to remain on the minor side, with a few inches across eastern Upper and up to around an inch for the aforementioned locations across northern Lower. The more notable story the next few days will be the colder temperatures, with overnight lows tonight dipping into the teens to perhaps single digits in the colder prone areas combined with wind chills in the low teens to single digits region-wide.

As we head into Saturday, high pressure begins to gradually build in, allowing snow shower activity to wind down and conditions to quiet. Quieter weather continues into Sunday as high pressure shifts east, and a return flow starts to develop. This will kick off a noticeable moderating trend through the end of the weekend, with temperatures climbing back toward more seasonable levels by Sunday (low 40s across eastern Upper and upper 40s to mid 50s across northern Lower, warmest for southern locations, especially those closest to Saginaw Bay). This warming trend really takes hold heading into early next week, with highs pushing well into the 50s and even flirting with the 60s by Monday across portions of northern Lower, while eastern Upper lags a bit cooler in the 40s.

Beyond that, attention turns to a developing pattern change on a larger scale. Guidance continues to signal a transition toward a more amplified longwave pattern, with troughing deepening out west and lower heights pushing into the west coast. As this occurs, energy will begin ejecting downstream into the central and eastern CONUS, leading to a more active and increasingly wet pattern across the Great Lakes through the mid to latter part of next week. With that said, there remains a sizable reservoir of colder air still parked across Canada and with northern Michigan sitting near the battleground between that colder air and the incoming milder air, there are early indications that precipitation type could become a bit of a tricky forecast/ headache at times. While it's far too early to pin down specifics, the potential for mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out... Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 600 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Low clouds will linger over interior portions of northern Michigan for a few more hours before dissipating this morning, leaving VFR conditions in place through much of the afternoon and evening. Snow showers are expected to work into the eastern U.P. by late afternoon/early evening and eventually across parts of northern lower through the evening. While the intensity of these snow showers is still uncertain, quick drops to IFR/LIFR VSBYs are possible under the heaviest snow showers for a brief period of time as they move through. Otherwise, VFR CIGs are expected through most of the issuance period. Mainly light winds are expected this morning before strengthening out of the west and northwest later today.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ348- 349.