textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms through daybreak. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72.

- Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail.

- Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This section covers the forecast for the rest of tonight. For latest Area Forecast Discussion addressing the remainder of the forecast period, see the next section.

Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This particular region will be the primary focus for deeper convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root integrity on trees).

The biggest story from this episode of convection is most certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32, lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general, this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning.

The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably. Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of 2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight.

Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Continued active pattern consisting of troughing over the western CONUS and ridging anchored over the eastern seaboard. This will continue to result in an active, southern stream wave dominant pattern that leads to numerous disturbances riding into the Great Lakes region, focused along a stationary boundary draped over Michigan. A direct Gulf moisture tap will continue to lead to anomalously moist airmasses moving into Michigan, and thus continues a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat through the end of the week. Some signs of a pattern breakdown with cooler weather through the weekend into next week... with perhaps a brief reprieve from the wet conditions as well.

Details:

Ongoing convection to continue through roughly daybreak. Warm / stationary frontal boundary draped from Frankfort to Harrisville, which will continue to be the focus for deeper convection. Strong low level jet (LLJ) intrusion driving elevated convection north into the Tip of the Mitt as well. Heaviest rainfall rates and severe threat (hail and wind) will still favor areas near and south of M-32, though with the ongoing high water situation across the far northern reaches of northern lower, there will continue to be flooding issues there as well. Rainfall will diminish into the morning hours, giving a temporary break to the area.

Dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, with the warm front sliding just south owing to the ongoing convection. Another wave riding this front will traverse lower Michigan. With much more instability to play with, we may be looking at another round of severe storms and heavy rain... but initial thinking from guidance is that this will be suppressed downstate for the most part... perhaps scraping the M- 55 corridor. This will be an all hazards type setup, and unfortunately will have to be refined with time based on where the warm front goes. Nonetheless... it does appear the farther north one goes, there should be a lesser risk of rain and thunderstorms later tonight.

Additional waves of energy will barge through the region and deliver more rounds of rainfall. Still a bit fuzzy on the details for the time being... but timing is coming into focus. Additional showers and storms will be possible south on Wednesday, overspreading much of northern lower into Wednesday night - Thursday. Another reprieve likely comes Friday before a larger system passes through the region, delivering yet another round of rain and thunder Friday night through Saturday. This will bring about colder temperatures to the region... with the temperature contrast of colder in eastern upper and mild / 70s south coming to a conclusion. Highs by Sunday will be in the 30s to near 40 across the board with snow chances. The chill will moderate some into midweek next week... with highs possibly reaching back into the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR producing low cigs/areas of mist will continue to pivot east across the area early this morning. While showers do end this morning, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out. Perhaps more MVFR producing cigs and showers/thunderstorms return again this evening. Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any stronger storms this morning. Otherwise, winds will remain light.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None.