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KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for strong/severe storms later this afternoon across northeast lower Michigan.

- Additional showers/storms expected Wednesday.

- Mostly dry with more seasonable temperatures late this week and upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A jet max embedded in the primary mid/upper-level flow will slide east later today as a strong shortwave punches across the northern Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The associated surface cyclone will also trek across Ontario today and Wednesday with the attendant cold front set to swing down into northern Michigan Wednesday morning/afternoon. Expansive ridging is then set to amplify to our west across much of the center of the continent late this week and through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast Details:

Primary forecast concern today is the potential for isolated to scattered storms initiating across northeast lower along the lake breeze pushing inland from Lake Huron. Confidence is still low in whether storms will form or not over the next few hours -- but any storms that do form will have a high chance of being strong/severe with the greatest threat being large hail. Impressive buoyancy on the order of 2,000+ J/kg MLCAPE overlapped by strong deep-layer shear ~45+ kts will support severe thunderstorm potential with any convection that initiates. However, this would largely be driven by low-level forcing via the lake breeze boundary and may be competing with unfavorable subsidence aloft evidenced by subtle height rises through the afternoon. Current thoughts cast some doubt on initiation as competing forcing could make it difficult. More aggressive diurnal mixing of low-level moisture may ensue this afternoon, creating convective inhibition in the vicinity of the boundary -- making it hard for mixing/forcing along the lake breeze to extend high enough to initiate storms. Regardless, trends will be monitored closely over the next few hours.

Focus then shifts to late tonight and Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms across the area along/ahead of the front that drops down into the area. The best chances for multiple rounds of showers and potential storms is expected to be along and south of M-72. Given elevated buoyancy and strong shear, a few strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out. However, unfavorable convective evolution may limit severe potential and the bulk of strongest activity may end of south of the CWA across mid Michigan through the afternoon. Rain chances look to diminish heading into Wednesday evening.

Looking ahead, aforementioned ridging building to our west will help keep rain chances low late this week through the holiday weekend. Rounds of convection are likely to form to our west during this time, current confidence is that the bulk of this activity will ride the ridge and track to our south. After a warm, humid day today, more seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the back half of this weekend and upcoming weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 443 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Expect another round of BR/FG/Stratus to develop tonight across much of the area (likely excluding KTVC), resulting in LIFR and VLIFR CIGS and VSBY's through Wednesday morning. Any low clouds/fog/mist will likely quickly mix out just after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under a mostly mid level overcast. May see some showers fall out of this cloud deck, but latest trends suggest the vast majority of these showers will pass by to our south. Light winds will continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.