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KEY MESSAGES

- Messy mix of winter weather expected later this evening into Wednesday, bringing chances for mixed precipitation and accumulating snow... See the latest Winter Weather Advisory for additional details.

- Cooler, with potential additional rounds of winter weather later this week and again later in the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Not much expected through early today as relatively quiet conditions persist across northern Michigan into this afternoon. A departing cold front and surface high pressure sliding east across Ontario will allow northeast to develop, slowly ushering in cooler air. Even so, temperatures will still show some variability depending on location. Highs across eastern Upper and much of northeast Lower will generally top out in the upper 30s to low 40s, while downslope favored areas south of Grand Traverse Bay could still breifly push into the lower 50s. Precipitation looks to start later this afternoon/ evening, mainly across eastern upper and areas north of M- 32 with some light rain/ snow showers forecasted, although most other areas should remain largely dry until tonight.

Attention turns to later this evening through Wednesday as the next system begins organizing across the Plains and tracks toward the Lower Great Lakes. Moisture will steadily increase from the south while colder air continues filtering in near the surface on strengthening northeast winds. At the same time, southwest flow aloft may maintain a several degree above freezing warm layer overhead for a time, especially across northern Lower. This evolving thermal profile supports the development of a messy wintry mix across northern Lower tonight, with freezing rain and sleet the primary concerns as surface temperatures dip below freezing. As colder air continues to deepen overnight, the sleet footprint may expand as the warm nose aloft gradually erodes and the sub-freezing surface layer grows in depth. Meanwhile, eastern Upper should see colder profiles establish quicker, allowing precipitation to fall primarily as snow through much of this event. Northeast to east- northeast winds will also increase into the night with gusts up to 35 mph possible... power outages and tree damage will be possible across areas expected to received higher ice amounts.

There remain a few factors that could limit overall impacts. Guidance continues to trend the axis of strongest moisture convergence further south, focusing the heaviest precipitation across central and southern Lower Michigan. In addition, expected organized convection across the southern Great Lakes tonight may disrupt moisture transport farther north. Best deformation forcing and trowal development also appear to develop east of our area as the system matures. Current thinking supports snow totals generally in the 3-6 inch range across eastern Upper, with a few inches possible across the northern half of northern Lower where precipitation will likely mix with sleet and some freezing rain. Ice totals for most areas should remain near or under or around a 0.10 of an inch given the southward placement of heavier precipitation, though isolated slightly higher amounts cannot be ruled out, especially across areas near and south of Alpena. Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for additional details.

As the low tracks toward southeast Michigan Wednesday, colder air should gradually wrap back into the region, allowing precipitation to trend toward mainly snow from north to south before tapering. Behind this system, a cooler and more typical mid-March airmass settles across the region for the latter half of the week. Thursday looks comparatively quiet with seasonably cool temperatures as the pattern breifly resets.

The active pattern continues late in the week as another fast moving northern stream wave approaches Thursday night into Friday. Thermal profiles with this system appear substantially cooler, supporting mainly snow chances across the area. Will have to continue to monitor the trends on this system, but accumulating snow appears likely with this approaching wave. Looking ahead to the weekend, guidance continues to support a more amplified pattern developing. Strengthening mid-level troughing a pronounced upper-level jet may drive rapid amplification of the northern stream flow, potentially supporting a stronger surface low somewhere near or across the Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday. While details remain highly uncertain at this distance, probabilities for snowfall for accumulating snowfall increase through the weekend as colder air becomes more firmly established across the region. In addition, strong cold air advection behind the system could support a lake response heading into early next week. For now, the overall message continues to favor cooler temperatures and an active stretch of wintry weather as we move deeper into mid- March.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

MVFR cloud deck draped across a portion of northern lower may largely stay in place through this morning before potentially retreating south this afternoon. Additional MVFR CIGs and associated snow look to spread across the Straits this afternoon into early evening. CIGs across all of northern lower Michigan are expected to lower to IFR/LIFR late this evening and tonight as a system works into the Great Lakes, bringing a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to parts of northern Michigan into Wednesday. APN is the most likely TAF site to see freezing rain tonight into Wednesday morning. Freezing rain is also possible at TVC and PLN, but a mix of precipitation types appears more likely for a majority of the issuance period. CIU will likely see all snow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016>018-086>088-095>099. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ020>036-041-042. MARINE...None.