textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating freezing drizzle tonight into Friday, esp for EUP

- Accumulating wet snow EUP Friday

- Snow chances continue into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

140kt sub-tropical jet stretches from SoCal to the Mid Atlantic...with broad troughing over the western/central US. Upper low over western Canada into the PacNW. Another shortwave trough lifting through the central Plains...and lingering upper low over the Upper Great Lakes...along general WSW-ENE baroclinic zone stretching across the US...tightest in the central US where 850mb temps below -10C ooze southward into the Northern Plains. (850mb temps above zero to our south...where better deep moisture remains across the southeastern US. Rex block setting up to our north, with strong low-level easterly flow over Ontario.

Upper low over western Lake Superior to retrograde into Minnesota...as niblet over the central Plains lifts northeastward tonight into Friday...bringing the next round of activity (with p- type concerns) to the area. Upper flow becomes rather nebulous in the wake of this Friday afternoon into the weekend...though lake aggregate troughing likely hangs on as cold air oozes into the region Saturday...keeping a threat of lake effect snow in play into early next week. High pressure then tries to overtake the region...but will be keeping an eye on a clipper system for the middle of next week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Accumulating freezing drizzle tonight into Friday, esp for EUP... Saturated low-levels tonight combined with some subtle theta-e advection supportive of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle...with higher probability of freezing drizzle tonight near and north of the Bridge where temps will remain around freezing as warm air should struggle to get further north than this. Attm...prob guidance suggests moderate-high confidence in ice accums of 0.1" across the EUP and Tip of the Mitt by the middle of the day Friday...though some guidance hints at around a tenth of icing as far south as Joburg/Lewiston-Elmira and the higher terrain north of Harbor Springs tonight...where surface temps could remain on the cooler side with east flow to enhance upsloping. Think the bulk of this will be overnight tonight with conditions favorable for better ice accumulation (sustained winds 10-20kts, lighter precip rates/drizzle). Am concerned about probs of 30-50 percent for icing greater than 0.25in thru midday Friday, largely across the EUP but which could sneak into the Tip of the Mitt.

Accumulating wet snow Friday, esp for EUP... The EUP should also have the best shot at seeing accumulating heavy/wet snow Friday afternoon as the thermal profile slowly cools through about 850mb or so with time, esp after midday...with collocation of deeper moisture and upper difluence north of the upper feature...though could be some heavier axes across the fingers of the Mitten with low-level fgen influences as the surface low tracks largely in the vicinity of M-72 (these areas should be more rain with a transition to a mix/snow late).

Attm...will issue Winter Weather Advisory for up to 0.20in of ice and 3-5in of heavy/wet snow with brisk easterly winds tonight through Friday afternoon...for EUP and Mackinac Island and Bois Blanc. Will hold off on including any northern lower counties attm...though a glaze of ice is certainly possible there tonight, esp PLN to APN...just not quite as confident in widespread icing attm for these areas...and will play these areas more by ear.

Snow Chances thru the Weekend...will need to keep an eye on potential for a deformation band in the wake of the system Friday night into Saturday...with a low-level convergence axis likely setting up somewhere from the western UP to NE Lower...just not quite confident yet in where this axis will fall (more north toward Rogers City or more south toward TVC/MBL). Lake influences possible, with 925mb temps probably sufficient for overlake instability, though not a ton deeper than this till later Saturday night/Sunday...as additional energy digs from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. This should maintain aforementioned convergence axis/lake aggregate troughing across the region into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 521 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

IFR to MVFR producing low clouds and mist/fog expected to spread across all taf locations through this evening. Will likely see some freezing drizzle fall out of this low overcast at KCIU. Rain spread north overnight, becoming a wintry mix of precipitation across eastern upper Michigan. Widespread IFR conditions on Friday as low clouds and fog/mist continue. Rain/wintry mix expected to transition to snow heading through the afternoon into the evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...None.