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KEY MESSAGES

- Quick moving clipper system brings 1-3 inches of snow and stronger winds to eastern upper and parts of northern lower MI - Temperatures warm to above freezing beginning Tuesday with a couple rounds of precipitation this week

- Accumulating snow and colder temperatures return end of the work week and this weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 131 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Currently, radar and satellite depict lingering lake effect snow showers over NW lower this afternoon under north-northwest winds. Winds are starting to trend northwest, and will continue this evening as higher heights through the column quickly move in. LL and surface winds will continue to back, becoming west and weaken by tonight. This will shift some of the lingering show showers back towards the big 5 for late this evening and tonight. This will be light snow that will only amount to a couple tenths at the most. Early Monday morning, winds back to the southwest and some light lake effect showers will begin near the coastal areas of Lk MI (especially near Little Traverse Bay and Emmet/Cheboygan counties). Winds will strengthen, becoming 10 to 20 mph with frequent gusts up to 25 to 35 mph (strongest near the northern Lk MI coast). By sunrise tomorrow, the next clipper will produce widespread light with times of moderate snow over most of eastern upper and parts of northern lower. Times of heavier snow will possible near the Lk MI coastal areas as some lake enhancement is likely with 850 mb Ts still near -15C to -10C. Under gusty winds, low visibilities will be realized even if snowfall is a bit more moderate than heavy for these areas (coastal Lk MI and tip of the mitt).

Winds will transition to west-southwest later Monday morning into to the mid day hours. Larger scale forcing and an ideal snow environment (left exit region of upper jet, stronger LL winds, low to mid level moisture, and cold LL temps) will be exiting - although guidance disagrees with how quickly some of these features will exit during the day on Monday. Widespread light snow could transition to some freezing drizzle in spots if drier low to mid level air works its way in sooner than the forcing exits. To increase confidence, most guidance shows a streak of mid level vorticity moving through Monday afternoon as lower level features exit, which will be enough continue light precipitation over parts of northern lower and eastern upper. If the low to mid level moisture evades quicker, freezing drizzle could be seen over some spots.

Accumulating snow thoughts: Total accumulations from late tonight through mid day Monday should remain confined to 1 to 3 inches over eastern upper and the tip of the mitt. Other spots along the coast over norther lower could see 1-2 inches, but this should remain localized. Latest guidance has been trending down significantly in QPF, which is likely due to forcing not aligning and the airmass itself being very dry.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 131 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Tuesday: An upper level ridge over the western CONUS will be breaking down Sunday and Monday. The warm airmass will be moving eastward, and should reach northern MI Monday night into Tuesday. As the warmer air reaches MI, a clipper system will be traversing southern CAN (helping with the warm air advection of course), but also returning precipitation chances to the area for Tuesday. South to southwest winds will strengthen Tuesday with chances for light mixed precipitation moving over eastern upper and northern lower. At this time, precipitation looks to be light with the best chances over eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt. Zonal mid and upper level flow will not be providing much aid with lift while the warm sector is over the CWA. A little better dynamics will come into play as the clipper exits late Tuesday into early Wednesday, and depending on moisture profiles could continue the mixed precipitation.

The warm sector quickly returns for later Wednesday into Thursday as deep Gulf moisture advection could reach all the way to the Great Lakes region. A decent amount of snow melt could be seen late Tues into Wed with that early week clipper, however there is a stronger signal in deterministic and ensemble guidance for Tds to rise above freezing for most of Thursday. Upper level flow becomes more meridional again as an upper trough digs into the central plains. Guidance is showing a favorable time and path for the system to produce mostly rain over the CWA at this time, which eventually transitions to accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday. Timing and track shifts could result in a more mixed precipitation scenario, albeit ensembles are not favoring that currently (LREF chances for ice greater than or equal to 0.01 is near or less than 12% for the CWA).

Thursday night into Friday, precipitation will transition to widespread snow breifly before some quick lake effect snow showers as the system exits. Some higher uncertainty exists for what will be seen this weekend, however most ensemble guidance is continuing snow chances through the end of the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 657 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Lake effect snow showers will persist for the next few hours, temporarily impacting TVC, PLN, and CIU this evening. Winds turn from west to southwest tonight, increasing through the early morning hours ahead of a weak front. Gusts to 25-30kts are expected for a several hour window Monday morning, eventually turning back to west winds and weakening through the afternoon. Another round of snow will work across northern Michigan Monday morning as well, likely dropping VSBYs to MVFR/IFR at TAF sites besides MBL prior to Monday afternoon. MVFR CIGs are expected at most TAF sites early Monday morning through the remainder of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for LHZ345- 346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LHZ347>349. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LMZ342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for LSZ322.