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KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold returns tonight and again Thursday night.

- Lake effect snow showers continue, with primary concerns being reduced visibility.

- Trending toward seasonable temperatures toward the weekend, with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 202 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

The song remains the same across the Northwoods as a potent trough has basically overtaken the entire eastern two thirds of the CONUS with arctic air... a pattern that looks to be entrenched for a while. Clipper system from yesterday has been dispatched east for the time being, leaving us with just some light lake effect snow showers this morning... primarily across NW lower, with some heavier returns impacting that Whitefish Point / Paradise / Tahquamenon area of western Chippewa County. Anticipating this to be status quo through much of the remainder of the morning. The next embedded trough axis / weak shortwave is set to surge through from north to south into the afternoon... and with just enough of an uptick in moisture, ongoing WNW flow lake effect across northern lower may flare up a bit for a time in the afternoon ahead of this trough passage.

Watching the development of some weaker lake aggregate troughing into this morning across Lake Superior, enhanced by drainage flow off the higher terrain north and east of our friends in the Sault. This feature should be pretty well developed, and on paper, should initially force the better developed lake effect to the west of Chippewa County... but in the event subtle mesolow / convergence boundaries can materialize, these features will likely be advected south and east into northern lower this afternoon, bringing a burst of snow and winds that may become quite the nuisance for travel with its passage. In the wake of this trough axis' passage, anticipating a more NW to NNW flow regime to build into the region, with associated lake effect to favor snowbelts with that wind direction. Considering how cold the column is... not entirely buying the eye- popping totals that the most aggressive CAMs are depicting... that being said... with smaller flake composition, certainly on the table to have hazardous travel with low visibilities and patchy blowing snow. Another thing to point out... this trough passage marks the intrusion of another deeper arctic airmass that will likely lead to a reinforcement of bone-chilling cold Wednesday night... with some guidance trying to paint a surge of that unmoderated air flooding into eastern upper and the interior terrain of northern lower. Thus, anticipating low temps tonight to be all over the place... likely just below zero near the Lake Huron shores, single digits near Grand Traverse Bay / south to Manistee... and then well below zero across all of eastern upper and the rest of northern lower. As such... will be hoisting an Extreme Cold Watch for eastern upper and much of northern lower (excluding areas south of Grand Traverse Bay and adjacent to Saginaw Bay) as even with weak winds, we will certainly be meeting criteria for dangerous cold headlines.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

As stated in the short term, we are firmly entrenched in the cold weather pattern, and the core of arctic cold will be here Thursday into Friday. So... despite some lingering light lake effect... the main story is going to be the cold air. Single digit highs at best looks to prevail across much of the region Thursday and Friday... and with calm winds and potential clearing skies... anticipating quite the cold night area-wide Thursday night... with the coldest interior locales of northern lower and eastern upper possibly flirting with or diving below -20F... which will likely necessitate another round of cold weather headlines. Looking toward the weekend, the arctic cold looks to loosen its grip some as the pattern relaxes... with temperatures returning to seasonable levels at best... which are highs in the mid-upper 20s and lows in the single digits / teens. So while we are going to "warm up"... sure doesn't look like much of a chance to see above freezing temperatures any time soon. And with another series of clippers set to move through the northern CONUS early next week, that trend will probably carry deep into February as latest longer term guidance wants to keep us locked into the colder pattern. With ice cover increasing, any colder intrusions of air will likely swing their whole weight for most as the lakes will struggle to moderate airmasses the more ice cover increases.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 622 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Lake effect snow continues today, with VFR outside snow bands, lowering to IFR at times within snow bands, from the W/WSW this morning. Think we will see upticks in activity between 18-23z as a cold front sinks south across the area...could see a heavier band along the front this afternoon? Expecting winds to turn NNW to N behind this, eventually light and vrb after dark esp for CIU/PLN with potential scattering of MVFR/VFR cloud deck. Some potential for a band to set up in the vc of Grand Traverse Bay/KTVC this evening which could drift westward toward MBL with time overnight...but still unclear depending on how far south/west the front drifts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Extreme Cold Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-033>036-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ086. Extreme Cold Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...None.