textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer Memorial Day with small shower chances

- Warm into mid-week, with the return of a bit cooler temperatures during the end of the week into the weekend appearing increasingly likely

- Minimal rain chances next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Approaching mid level trough axis and attendant band of low/mid level convergence and moisture advection helping kick off some showers across the Northwoods early this afternoon...with much of those showers impacting northern lower Michigan. Those showers and plenty of clouds have definitely had some impact on our temperatures, with current readings (mostly in the 50s) running yet again several degrees below specific normal values for today's date.

Trough axis will clear our area tonight, part of a significant long- wave transformation early this week. This will lead to what looks to be the development of a rather robust omega block across central NOAM for the second half of the week...with stout central Conus/southern Canada ridging bookended by northeast NOAM and west coast centered just as impressive trough axes. Current trends continue to suggest northern Michigan will lie on or in close proximity to the ridge/northeast NOAM centered trough interface. While such a pattern supports little in the way of active weather (all deep moisture and forcing shunted well to our south and east) it does place our area within a rather robust temperature gradient regime...with core of coldest temperature anomalies centered just to our east while maturing heat dome likely centers just off to our west.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main focus on temperature trends through the week, with secondary focus directed at what appears to be some lower end shower chances at times.

Details:

Showers come to and end through the remainder of this afternoon as primary moisture convergence axis exits stage right...setting us up for a dry and near seasonable temperature night. While still looks mild to even summer-like for Memorial Day, do continue to have some questions on just how warm we become as weak wave and some attendant clouds look to pass overhead. Likely to even see a few showers and even a rumble of thunder or two (diurnally-driven mixed layer cape of a few hundred joules/kg supports such)...with best chances across northeast lower Michigan where Lake Huron induced low level convergence will become maximized. Definitely not expecting a washout by any means...with trends continuing to support most of the time and much of the area remaining dry. As for those temperatures...again...still looking fairly mild to warm...with highs in the 70s to lower 80s expected. However, if clouds are a bit more extensive and persistent than currently anticipated much of the area will likely struggle to break the 80 degree mark. Still a nice change from our recent bout of cooler temperatures.

Again, struggle for the rest of the period really centers on those temperatures trends. Tuesday does continue to look like the warmest day of the period with return flow on backside of departing surface high. Top/down thermal progs continue to support highs in the mid to upper 80s across a large portion of northern lower Michigan, with just a bit cooler conditions near those big waters and up across eastern upper Michigan. Growing evidence that slight retrogression to the long wave pattern occurs Wednesday into the end of the week...allowing more influence from northeast NOAM centered troughing on our weather. This would force a gradual cooling Wednesday through Friday...with again perhaps some parts of our area not getting out of the 60s by Friday. Some moderation is possible next weekend, but still appears primary heat dome remains well off to our west. Of course, given expected proximity to that ridge/trough interface, these forecast temperatures are subject to plenty of changes in the coming days. Not much in the way of any active weather expected through this period, although suppose a few showers are possible on Wednesday as moisture starved and weakly forced cold front looks to drop south through the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Back edge of precip and IFR cigs/visbys to slowly exit from west to east this afternoon. Could be some TSRA at APN in particular ahead of this, thru about 22z. Skies should start to SCT behind this, though could stay drearier than expected near MBL/TVC late afternoon. Winds remain generally SE 6-7kts or less ahead of this, but should turn to NW thru afternoon as things clear out. Winds largely go light tonight (land breezes possible?) with cigs/visbys dropping to IFR/LIFR after 2-5z with fog. Expect this to improve around 11-14z with SW winds around 5-10kts. May need to watch for SHRA/TSRA to pop up toward end of taf period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.