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KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms possible across the eastern U.P. into this evening. Severe storms are not expected.

- Showers and storms across parts of northern Michigan at times through the holiday weekend.

- Slightly cooler and less humid weather this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

The tail end of a mid/upper jet max will punch east of the region this evening and tonight as a wave augmented by the ongoing MCS crossing southern Lake Michigan passes overhead behind the jet. Ridging over central Canada will amplify over the weekend as weak troughing does the same as it digs across the Midwest, providing support aloft for ill-defined surface low pressure across a large area of the CONUS along and east of the Mississippi River through early next week. Surface high pressure centered near James Bay will attempt to nose into the Great Lakes and keep aforementioned low pressure south of the area.

Forecast Details:

Primary short term concern is the cells that have popped up across Chippewa and Luce counties in the last 1-2 hours, prompting SPS issuance. These storms, along with the potential for additional cells initiating along the boundary, will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds. While storms this afternoon and early evening will largely stay sub-severe, a few 1"+ hailstones cannot be completely ruled out -- MUCAPE around 1,500 J/kg and effective deep layer shear around 35 kts will be sufficient to support such activity over the next few hours.

Meanwhile, most of northern lower Michigan is expected to remain dry this evening into tonight. A few showers may move into northwest lower Michigan this afternoon and early evening, but any activity is expected to be light. The best chances for a few showers and perhaps a storm or two will come along and south of M-55 with any activity to the north of the ongoing MCS as it crosses southern Michigan. Shower chances will continue across northern lower Michigan tonight into Saturday morning, potentially becoming more expansive during daylight hours. Will emphasize that showers and potential storms Saturday are expected to be scattered in nature and will likely not be a washout across the area, but may still disrupt some afternoon holiday plans. Any ongoing activity is expected to wane in coverage from north to south as we head into the evening hours, hopefully making for rain-free conditions for most of northern Michigan around sunset.

Additional showers and a few storms will be possible on Sunday across across much of the area at times through the day. Current thoughts are that high pressure will build into the region enough to keep rain chances south of the area for the first half of next week, but can't rule out that aforementioned low pressure stays further north and keeps rain chances in the forecast. Regardless, some slightly cooler and less humid weather is anticipated for the holiday weekend and early next week with highs in the 70s to low 80s for most.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Strong storms to our south will continue to send periods of mid and high clouds to the northern MI TAF sites. Some showers are also forming over northern Lake MI, with rain possible overnight at MBL/TVC. This will contribute to lower cloud development, MVFR at TVC and IFR at MBL. CIU could also see MVFR fog. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.