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KEY MESSAGES

-Light to isolated moderate areas of rainfall sweep across the northwoods today.

-Overnight temperatures fall Friday night. Freeze and widespread frost expected.

-High pressure supports mostly quiet and overall quiet conditions the remainder of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Midlevel longwave troughing currently over Canada continues to expand southward and push cooler cP air into the northwoods this weekend. At the same time, surface low pressure over the Central U.S. with an attached cold front will sweep across the CWA and produce another round of light rainfall.

Post-frontal cold air advection begins to move into the region this Friday and return surface temperatures to climatological normals for early October. Highs return to the 60s for most areas while overnight lows fall into the 40s and 30s. Seasonably cold overnight temperatures are expected at times, especially Friday night as temperatures fall around freezing for several counties. Only chance of rainfall beyond today remains on Sunday as an embedded wave sweeps across Southern Ontario. Otherwise high pressure will support dry conditions through early next week.

Forecast Details:

Today: The aforementioned cold front continues to push across Northern Michigan today, resulting in another round of light rainfall for most areas. Rainfall is expected to remain confined to Northern Lower with most areas observing only a general tenth of light stratiform rain. Stronger forcing and frontogenic lift will stay across the southernmost parts of the CWA, with deeper moisture profiles. As a result, a sharp gradient of higher QPF amounts around an inch is expected along and south of the M-55 corridor.

Friday and Saturday: Surface high pressure will begin to build behind the cold fronts passing tonight. Post-frontal cold air advection will usher in cool and dry cP air into the northwoods with highs in the 60s and breezy northwest flow this Friday. Only concerning weather to keep an eye on will be the chilly overnight temperatures Friday night. Efficient radiational cooling from clear skies and breezy northwest flow will drop temperatures to the low 30s for most areas.

Sunday through Wednesday Outlook: An embedded trough will develop over the Canadian Rockies this weekend and return some isolated chances of showers to Northern Michigan this Sunday. With the most forcing to our north, the majority of rainfall will be limited to the eastern upper with highest probabilities of QPF remaining below a quarter inch. The remainder of the forecast period will remain pretty benign with fall-like conditions. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 60s continue through Wednesday with overnight lows in the 40s. The typically colder parts of the CWA can expect scattered chances of frost concerns next week as we continue our late growing season.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Another round of rain inbound across northern lower MI terminals today with LIFR to IFR conditions anticipated through much of the morning, gradually rising to MVFR this afternoon and eventually this evening into tonight. Winds initially out of the southwest this morning turn out of the northwest through the afternoon and become breezy in spots. Lighter north-northwest winds expected to prevail tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Friday for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.