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KEY MESSAGES

-Warmer temperatures this weekend into early next week, with warmest readings on Monday.

- Small chances for showers this weekend, with better rain chances arriving early next week. Some stronger storms possible early next week as well.

- Significant fire weather concerns Saturday afternoon (please see the latest fire weather planning forecast (FWF) for those details).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Much more zonal flavor to the mid and upper level flow regime across the northern Conus early this afternoon. Core of subtropical surface high situated about where it should be...across the southeast Conus...with maturing southwest return flow between it and slow moving upper Mississippi Valley cold front directed right into the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures of course are starting to respond accordingly, with high temperatures this afternoon returning to more normal-like levels in the 60s to lower 70s. Band of elevated moisture responsible for quite a bit of morning clouds now exiting off to our east...with increasing amounts of sunshine across the western Great Lakes.

Zonal upper level flow regime continues into the start of the weekend. Upper level flow amplifies quite aggressively heading into the early stages of next week...made to do so by strong shortwave trough and upper jet core digging into the Intermountain West Sunday into Monday. This will only intensify southwest flow with time...not only bringing some summertime warmth into the Northwoods...but also likely bringing the return of some active weather as moisture advection and forcing intensify.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing increasing chances for showers and storms...especially early next week.

Details:

Upstream cold front tied to weak shortwave trough and embedded upper level speed max slated to cross our area later tonight into Saturday. Attendant plume of enhanced mid level lapse rates and core of sub 1K elevated cape does support at least the threat for a few showers tonight into Saturday morning...with a few embedded non- severe storms possible as well. Not expecting anything too significant...and very likely much of the area sees little rain at all. Post-frontal cold air advection is limited at best on Saturday, with still warm thermal profiles and deeper afternoon mixing supporting highs well up into the 70s and lower 80s for much of northern lower Michigan. Per the usual, coastal locales and those north of the big bridge will remain a few degrees cooler.

Moisture advection ramps up again on Sunday as southern Lakes warm front begins to accelerate north as earlier talked about amplification kicks into overdrive. Again, a few showers are possible...although best low level jet support and shortwave forcing look to focus well to our west. Northern Michigan becomes fully engulfed in the warm sector of maturing low pressure to our west on Monday. Thermal profiles and increased mechanical mixing within increasingly gusty southwest winds easily supports highs well up into the 80s for most areas south of the Straits (again, a bit cooler near Lake Michigan and across eastern upper Michigan). Wouldn't be entirely shocked to see some spots make a run at 90 in those favored downslope areas across northeast lower Michigan. Later Monday and especially Monday night could be quite active as deep layer forcing works over an increasingly moisture rich environment (precipitable water values looking to go up and over 1.50 inches). Juxtaposition of best low level jet support, deepest moisture, and corridor of deepest shear/instability look to focus to our west...suggesting that is where greatest threat for severe weather will reside. Of course, how things evolve here will be highly predicated by how convection unfolds upstream. Still, cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms during this period given potential wind shear and eastward pushing plume of instability. SPC continues to highlight this concern, focusing some threat for severe weather across a good portion of lower Michigan. Definitely something to monitor as we head through this weekend. Maybe some lingering showers and storms Tuesday (all dependent on yet to be determined frontal passage...with that at least partially predicated on how Monday night convective cold pools congeal). Rest of the period currently looks rather uneventful, with temperatures likely trending back down to a bit below normal levels into the middle of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR through the evening and much of tonight, then showers and lowering CIGs later tonight into early Saturday. VFR CIGs will lower to MVFR Saturday morning, briefly lower not out of the question, with a return to VFR Saturday afternoon. Expect breezy southwest winds to continue into this evening, with more breezy west winds on Saturday. Best potential for -SHRA and also iso -TSRA will be ~06Z to 15Z tonight into Saturday. Additionally, LLWS will be possible at tonight, 220 degrees 35-40KTs generally.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345-349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.