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KEY MESSAGES

- High-impact lake effect snow bands continue into Friday. Additional snowfall totals as high as 12-18 inches in parts of Kalkaska, Crawford, and Roscommon counties under the heaviest band.

- Another system could bring several inches of snow back to Michigan Saturday night into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 452 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the western US...with troughing over the east. Cold air funneling south out of Canada (-12C at 850mb sneaking down into the Upper MS Valley) in the wake of a broad upper low swirling over Ontario/Quebec, south of James Bay. Occluded surface low attendant to this over eastern Canada...with theta-e advection around the north side of the low back into the Upper Great Lakes. PV niblet swirling back around through eastern Lake Superior into the EUP attm...with that theta-e advection supplying synoptic moisture to the already primed lakes...and winds generally veering a little more north of northwest in its wake across northern Lake Superior into Ontario. To our south...punch of PV wrapping some of that cold air aloft around the backside of the system aiding in synoptic upward motion across the southern half of the forecast area...while aforementioned EUP PV aiding in some synoptic forcing across the northern half of the forecast area into the Tip of the Mitt, keeping areas north of M32 somewhat active, though not necessarily super focused as far as lake effect is concerned. More focused band has been largely from CVX to as far southeast as National City/Tawas City. Weak stability through about 600mb and deep moisture through the column aided by something of a Lake Superior connection on NW flow, including in the DGZ where some of the better omegas are currently pegging... thus, not surprised we've gotten reports of 12, 15, even 20 inches of snow across areas from Lakes of the North down into Frederic and east of Grayling thus far today (2pm).

Expect the EUP PV to continue its trek southward through the afternoon...resulting in winds veering from a little west of NW to a little more north of NW through the early overnight hours...and ultimately think the intense band will eventually shift a little more westward into Kalkaska county later this afternoon into tonight. Snowfall totals may end up a little more broad across the Tip of the Mitt region than earlier expectations, noting the upward forcing from that PV max spreading reflectivity a little more broadly up that way attm. Worst conditions should be this afternoon...between now and 0z, though some potential for precip to become organized into bands again this evening as the sun goes down...which suggest the heavier snow will persist at least through the first half of the night. A second PV slipping in from Wisconsin after 6z should back winds to more WNW again...which should shift the band yet again tonight. While low-level forcing may start to fade tonight...think we will still have some reasonable snowfall around through 12z, until better warm advection aloft begins to slip in.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 452 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Friday...expect lake effect will continue, though winds will start to back more to the west as heights rise through the day...and deeper moisture pulls away with the upper low finally departing. Think we will still see intense lake effect bands, not entirely dissimilar to today...though conditions won't be quite as favorable as today, particularly with the wind shifts likely spreading the joy around a bit more than today. Winds diminish Friday night, but this could set up the potential for some land-breeze/mesoscale-driven lake effect going into Saturday morning.

Saturday-Sunday...Apparent synoptic snowmaker on the way...Rising heights/warm advection should limit lake effect initially (not to mention we should largely be under the influence of southerly flow)... but think that same warm advection could lead to seeder- feeder processes and jump start things a bit sooner. Expect winds to become southeasterly with time going into Saturday night ahead of another system deepening as it approaches us...again with the negative tilt shortwave troughs! This system, however, has more synoptic potential for us, as signals point toward the 700mb low crossing from somewhere over the IA/WI border northeastward into central Lower Michigan by the daytime hours Sunday, leaving us in a favorable position for deformation axis snows. Will expect some lake influences to contribute as well, though exact track/strength of low still a bit unclear as to how easterly the winds will be and how much of an inland influence this will have on the Lake Huron coast. Behind the system later Sunday, will look for a return to lake effect, though it appears synoptic moisture will pull away fairly quick this time. Perhaps one saving grace is that absolute moisture (pwats) does not appear as significant as this past system for us...though we will have a good tap off the Gulf...but snowfall probabilities are still looking rather concerning, with latest probabilistic guidance showing moderate-high confidence in at least 4-6 inches by Sunday evening, if not more. Think we will need to watch this one very closely going forward.

Monday-Thursday...We should get on the backside of the system Sunday night into Monday, resulting in a return to lake effect, though this system should have less synoptic moisture to work with. Potential for things to briefly quiet down Monday...before another shortwave trough crosses the Midwest Monday night into Tuesday. This system currently appears positively tilted and doesn't have as much of a surface response in our area (phew) though it should have some impacts on lake effect, given potential for another round of cold advection aloft. Currently looks like we turn more troughy across the eastern US later next week...suggesting we will be colder, and this will likely keep the lake machine going.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 643 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Variable conditions in lake effect snow and clouds. CIU is likely to be IFR tonight. All other sites could dip there at times, but MVFR will be most common. Conditions will tend to improve on Friday to an MVFR/VFR mix. Nw winds will gradually decrease tonight and Friday, but gusts of 20-30kt will be common tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018- 024-088. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ020-025- 031. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-086-087-095-096-099. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ026- 032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.