textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunderstorms return midweek. Locally heavy rain will be the main threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Tranquil to begin the work week as high pressure keeps the region high and dry. Mostly clear skies through Tuesday with temperatures in the 80s and a few afternoon breezes. Moisture begins pooling to the west across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, which will make a run to the east across Michigan during the mid week time frame.

Quick moving energy and troughing begin to move from west to east through the mid week time frame, with stationary boundary draped across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. The anomalous moisture pooled to our west will move east into the region in response to the westerly flow. ENS means suggest 1.5-1.8"+ PWs (+1.5 - +2.0 sigma) with elevated instability. Thus, efficient, potentially heavy, rainfall will be possible during the later Wednesday into Thursday time frame, especially if storms are able to develop and train over the same areas. The question becomes where the area of best lift sets up and thus the corridor of heavy rainfall. General consensus amongst the ENS guidance, and most deterministic, print the best potential across portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, leaking into portions of far northwest lower Michigan. This coincides with the Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Be that as it may, storms will still be present across the rest of northern lower MI, Wednesday night and on Thursday as the frontal boundary works south across the region. Any storm within this environment will have the potential for locally heavy rain (skinny CAPEs in some cases). We'll need to fine tune any severe threat, if any, on Thursday. Activity largely wanes into Friday.

High pressure builds back in later this week and into the weekend, leading to largely dry conditions and seasonable/seasonably warm temperatures. May have to keep an eye on a few disturbances impinging from the north, but current forecast keeps the region mainly dry. Big story will be across the central portions of the nation, as a monster ridge builds across the Front Range and Plains states, leading to very hot conditions for those locales.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR condtions persist through the issuance period with mostly clear skies expected. Mainly light northeast winds with lake breezes, but could get an occasional gust 10-20 kts this afternoon. Winds turn calm tonight with increasingly dry air working into the region. Continue to think that fog development will be hindered because of this, but still worth mentioning the possibility. More of the same expected Tuesday with light winds and afternoon lake breeze development, perhaps a few high passing clouds but remaining VFR.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.