textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Slow cooling trend kicks off Wednesday, with temperatures trending back toward more normal levels to end the week.

- Small rain chances Wednesday to be followed by what looks to be an extended stretch of dry weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Well advertised and talked about central NOAM upper level flow transition to an omega block now kicking into overdrive with rapidly northward expanding ridging into the northern Plains and southwest Canada...bookended by deepening west coast and northeast NOAM centered trough axes. Northern Michigan centered on the ridge/northeast NOAM trough interface...with passing wave well to our north helping drag a weak and moisture starved surface trough/cold front into the northern Lakes. Full throttle warm air advection regime out ahead of this weak surface feature for areas south of the big bridge, helping drive temperatures well up into the 80s early this afternoon across much of northern lower Michigan. Of course...gusty west winds keeping conditions considerably cooler near Lake Michigan. Winds have shifted around to a more northerly component across much of eastern upper Michigan in the post surface trough regime, keeping temperatures a bit cooler up that way (especially near Lake Superior). Dry conditions across the Northwoods, this despite the warmth and slowly southward sagging trough. Do expect some activity to shortly fire to our west within deeper moisture and instability plume...with perhaps some of this activity making a run at our far southwest areas by early this evening.

Pattern amplification will continue in the coming days, with northern Michigan looking to remain squarely centered between upstream ridging and continued deepening eastern troughing. Canada will remain our source region for our airmasses, bringing a gradual cooling trend through the remainder of this week into the start of the weekend. Lead shot of cooler air may bring a few showers/storms on Wednesday, with perhaps the next reinforcing shot of cool air bringing some light shower chances again on Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing low end precipitation chances through the period.

Details:

Shortwave trough and attendant cold front look to drop south into and across our area on Wednesday...again part of the eastern trough deepening process. Moisture is limited, but could see just enough forcing and diurnally-driven instability support to allow a few showers/storms to develop along these features. Definitely not expecting a wash out or any severe weather, but can't completely rule out a few showers/storms dropping south through the region. Temperatures will start their downward trend, but still looking at highs ranging from the 70s north to the low/mid 80s across our southern border.

Canada originated high pressure expected to drop slowly south into and across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday, supporting dry weather and near seasonal temperatures...with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s.

Starting to see growing support for a strong shortwave trough to dig south into the eastern Great Lakes and New England by later Friday into Saturday...bringing a reinforcing shot of even cooler air and perhaps a few showers along with it to northern Michigan. Consensus blend already showing evidence of this scenario, given high temperatures on Saturday in the 60s across northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan...with warmer readings in our southwest footprint. Slow moderation anticipated heading into Sunday and Monday as temperatures look to trend back to normal. Of course, all this is subject to change, with adjustments to temperatures more than expected as we head through the remainder of this week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SCT-BKN100-250 at times. West winds slowly decrease through the rest of this afternoon, although remain a little breezy, before diminishing and becoming light and variable overnight. Dry much of the period, slight chance for a shower on Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.