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KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread snowfall Thursday...ending as freezing drizzle??

- Renewed push of arctic air arrives Friday morning with concomitant impacts (cold/snow/wind) through Saturday.

- Warmer air returns for early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 325 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Synopsis/Forecast: Water vapor imagery shows an elongated PV anomaly that extends from Hudson Bay southwest across Michigan/ Wisconsin/ Iowa and into the central Plains. Very little moisture aloft so this wave is having minimal impact as it tracks southeast this afternoon. Shallow instability remains across the upper Lakes per 12Z APX sounding (inversion height 875mb/-17C) resulting in mostly flurries across eastern Upper/northwest Lower...perhaps a bit higher off Lake Superior so some better snow shower activity possible across Chippewa county through the evening hours (though CASMR radar data has been missing this afternoon so difficult to evaluate trends).

Sc/flurries across northern Lower should end this evening...in time for higher clouds to spread in from the northwest. Stronger forcing (isentropic ascent/dynamic forcing with approaching short wave trough) spreads in toward daybreak along with some light snow...but more on that below.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 325 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Strong +PNA (ridge west/trough east) pattern in place at midweek; high-latitude arctic branch jet extends across the Northwest Territories/Hudson Bay. Deep layer northerly flow remains over the Great Lakes...but warm air advection is not far upstream across Manitoba and the Prairie Provinces and spilling into the northern Plains/upper Midwest along the leading edge of Pacific-origin moisture. Surface arctic cold front associated with arctic jet branch extends from Hudson Bay southwest into northwest Ontario and back west across Manitoba. Very weak (1028mb) surface low located over Minnesota.

Long wave trough carved out of eastern North America will keep the cold weather in place through the rest of the week...with the door open for the arctic jet to deliver another push of bitter cold to the Great Lakes for the end of the week. But next week looks to turn the page on this cold pattern as large scale flow becomes more zonal and allows Pacific air to flood eastward. Arctic front over northwest Ontario will make progress south today but will stall as it reaches Upper Michigan Thursday morning. Short wave trough coming over the top of the western ridge expected to dig southeast across the upper Lakes Thursday...followed quickly by a second wave Friday which will push the next arctic front across Michigan during the day. High pressure will cross the region Sunday and return flow will follow which will kick start our shift back to...dare I say...above normal temperatures (the likes of which we haven't see since 17 January).

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Widespread snowfall Thursday...ending as freezing drizzle??: Light snow spreads across northern Michigan Thursday morning...and then deep layer saturation gets a bit "squirrely" during the afternoon as things seem to dry about above 700mb and remained saturated below with continued isentropic ascent...and at temperatures around or above -10C so some question that precipitation may taper off to flurries/freezing drizzle during the afternoon. This light snow/flurries/freezing drizzle potential will continue Thursday evening before column saturates again as short wave trough #2 digs in from the northwest ahead of the arctic front which should at least be on the Upper Peninsula's doorstep Friday morning. Did massage the PoP grids upward for early Friday morning as NBM consensus forecast continues to show a climatological bias. Overall snow amounts should only be an inch or two through Thursday afternoon...and perhaps the same overnight Thursday into Friday morning mainly west of I-75.

Renewed push of arctic air arrives Friday morning with concomitant impacts (cold/snow/wind) through Saturday: Arctic air spills southeast across Michigan on Friday...with rising temperatures ahead of the front will actually be rather mild to start the day with mid- upper 20s across eastern Upper and upper 20s-lower 30s across northern Lower. Bottom will drop out with frontal passage with temperatures sinking through the teens during the afternoon and likely ending up in the single digits across eastern Upper by Friday evening. Synoptic snowfall should continue Friday morning before transitioning to lake effect snow showers with the onset of cold advection during the afternoon. Over time lake convection should be confined to areas favored by northerly flow (using SREF PoPs to cover this as NBM PoPs are sorely lacking in this scenario). North to northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph post-cold front passage... which will blow around the newly fallen snow. Winds will diminish some late Friday night...but current expected wind chills will be pushing Cold Weather Advisory criteria for most of the forecast area.

Warmer air returns for early next week: Southerly return flow kicks in on Sunday as high pressure moves off to the east. Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 20s Sunday...and above freezing for much of northern Lower Monday. Return of warmer air is usually a harbinger of additional precipitation chances...perhaps even having to deal with some mixed precipitation potential in the Monday- Tuesday time frame.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 623 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Areas of VFR/MVFR CIGS tonight, gradually lowering toward more widespread MVFR CIGS by Thursday morning. A weak storm system will bring light snow into the terminals on Thursday with a period of MVFR vsbys possible, primarily through 18z. Lower CIGS continue Thursday afternoon with some potential for patchy light freeze drizzle after the snow ends. Winds will become gusty from the southwest and patchy blowing snow will also be possible.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.