textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog again tonight and perhaps Friday night.

- Rain chances hold off till Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Troughing hanging near/off either coast of the CONUS today...with somewhat more progressive flow across Canada, with a handful of PV niblets over Saskatchewan and Manitoba as of 12z helping to flatten ridge axis a bit over central North America; 534dam upper trough over Quebec. Yesterday's shortwave trough diving southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes this morning, headed for opening upper wave off New England; upstream, 80kt southerly upper jet and excellent difluence with abundant moisture transport into the southwestern US. Southwesterly flow in the low levels sneaks up into the northern Plains as well...with warm advection up into Manitoba ahead of the next northern stream trough. Coldest air attm not surprisingly well to our northeast beneath that upper low, with 850mb temps -8C and colder; here in Northern Michigan, we remain in the 6C+ range. Quite a bit of low-level moisture oozing southward behind what is left of the front from last night as high pressure builds to our north; not surprisingly seeing quite a bit of dense fog and low stratus this morning, esp north of M-32...and this has been a bit slow to mix out, esp near the coast. Appears most model guidance is trying to dry things out too quickly across the area this morning...as dewpoints generally hang around 43-50F as of 14z...and low clouds struggle to mix out (KPLN holding firmly to 200ft cloud bases, even approaching peak heating).

High pressure will continue to hang out near/overtop of Michigan tonight into Friday...resulting in another round of patchy fog tonight. Return flow strengthens upstream Friday into Saturday...as upstream troughing slowly attempts to transit eastward...though northern and southern streams appear to remain split, with the upper low getting left behind in the southwestern US as a more potent upper low (and attendant surface system) tracks ENE-ward across central Canada into Hudson Bay by Sunday. This should punch down ridging into the area, and will have potential to drape a boundary across the Midwest/Eastern US going into the start of the work week. The SW US energy finally rides up along this BCZ as it ejects eastward toward midweek, fading out as additional upstream energy moves into the PacNW, potentially quite hot-on-its-heels...though there is some uncertainty in the timing/evolution of this latter feature for midweek and beyond. In fact, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for the latter half of next week, pending the evolution of said feature and whether or not it digs deeper into the Midwest or not...though it could at the very least trend somewhat cooler/more seasonable for early next week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Fog again tonight...think the song will remain much the same tonight as last night, thanks to high pressure still hanging out in the region (nearly overhead tonight, in fact). The low stratus/fog deck is finally beginning to erode across the EUP and northern Lakes Michigan and Huron as of 18z...but still trying to hang on across NE Lower MI where there is some semblance of upsloping on N/NE flow. Not expecting much change to the air mass going forward, noting little in the way of advection except for some subtle cooling at 925mb...though there are some signals for slightly higher theta-e air over central Lake Superior/N. WI to drift southeastward towards us with time. Conceptually, think that the best chance of fog tonight will be across the EUP into parts of northern Lower where skies have cleared a bit quicker today and should allow for more efficient radiational cooling after sundown. The sticky wicket will be NE Lower and that slow-to-dissipate stratus deck; if we don't mix it out during the heating of the day today, it's liable to stick around tonight and keep a blanket over the area. It may again take a hot minute to mix out Friday morning, similar to today, though it should rotate out of the area with time as return flow kicks up over WI. Think we could fog again Friday night as well, though think the best shot at this would be toward our Saginaw Bay region.

Rain chances possible Sunday...Next chance of rain likely holds off till Sunday as that front drapes in, the tail end of a much stronger storm passing by well to our north. Overall idea suggests the boundary will drape in and stall over southern MI for the start of the work week...and do think there could be a decent little feed of moisture into our area ahead of the front Saturday night into Sunday that could be enough to overcome the otherwise dry low/mid-level conditions we've been dealing with for the last few days or more, and there could be enough forcing to squeeze a little bit out of the atmosphere. However, would not be surprised if we ended up quiet/dry overall. Best chance for measurable rainfall would be the EUP closer to better forcing along the front.

A lot of uncertainty in the forecast ahead for next week, depending on the evolution of the upstream pattern beyond Sunday/Monday. Does appear the SW upper low will eject, open up, and track northeastward toward the Midwest, but quite a bit of disagreement in how strong this feature will be when it arrives up here. The more potent action will be upstream as energy enters the PacNW Monday/Tuesday, though it is unclear attm how quickly this will eject. If quicker, and it is able to hitch up with the northern stream energy a bit better...could be looking at a deeper shortwave trough that could bring a cooler shot of air to the region for mid-late week. If the upper low remains trapped over the PacNW, the pattern could be much more mushy...though overall, signals point toward a broad zonal-ish trend across the western Hemisphere...as polar energy migrates into eastern Asia and the North Atlantic.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

IFR/LIFR stratus deck from PLN to APN finally slowly eroding...but think IFR cigs will prevail thru rest of the afternoon (occasionally SCT). Expect fog and/or low stratus again tonight...but think that whether we end up with LIFR or lower visbys/cigs in fog vs. IFR/LIFR cigs will depend on how well clouds dissipate this afternoon. Think APN/PLN and perhaps TVC could remain low stratus vs fog; CIU and MBL more likely to fog in. Winds remain light/vrb to slightly east (varying from NNE at CIU to SE elsewhere) with land breezes possible overnight. Improving cigs/visbys expected during the morning, but IFR/MVFR could hang on longer at APN.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.