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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect/ enhanced snow continues today and through the weekend.

- Dangerously cold conditions possible Monday into Tuesday, with gusty winds, double digit subzero wind chills, and accumulating lake effect snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Little overall change to the broader pattern is expected today as a weak and slow moving system remains drapes across the region. This will keep occasional snow showers in play, though coverage will continue to be uneven and largely driven by subtle mesoscale features. Moisture profiles remain marginal, with only brief periods of deeper saturation, allowing precipitation to vary at times, introducing periods of freezing drizzle possible at times. Lake influence remains difficult to realize for much of the day given light and poorly organized low-level flow. However, later this afternoon into the evening, a passing surface trough and onset of weak cold air advection may allow for a more noticeable lake response off Lake Michigan. This could result in better organized snow showers across northwest Lower, especially the typical snowbelt locations and areas near and south of Grand Traverse Bay, resulting in perhaps a few inches by Sunday morning (especailly looking at Manistee and Wexford counties). Outside of these areas, impacts seem limited with accumulations an inch or less. However, periods of freezing drizzle and lake snows could create travel difficulties for the evening and morning commutes as area roadways will likely be slick. Daytime highs look to reach the 20s to low 30s with overnight lows dropping back into the teens.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

The quieter, disorganized pattern of the weekend gives way to a much colder and more impactful setup heading into early next week. An Arctic disturbance will dig southeast out of Canada, setting the stage for increasing lake response and a significant surge of cold air across the Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, strengthening southwest flow on Sunday will support lake enhanced snow developing off Lake Michigan, with most favored areas across northwest Lower into the Straits. Snow coverage and intensity will increase through the day, and accumulating snow combined with strengthening winds may lead to deteriorating travel conditions by late Sunday. The Arctic front is expected to track through the area Sunday night, rapidly shifting winds northwest and ushering in strong cold air advection. Monday into Tuesday will likely feature bitterly cold temperatures, gusty winds, and persistent lake driven snow. Highs Monday will struggle to reach the low teens, with highs topping out in the single digits Tuesday. Overnight temperatures fall well below zero across eastern Upper and near or just below zero elsewhere. Wind chills will be the primary concern, dropping into the negative teens and lower 20s below zero late Monday into Tuesday. Northwest flow lake effect snow becomes established late Sunday night into Monday. As temperatures drop and the airmass continues to cool, snow will become lighter and less saturated and more powdery, limiting accumulation potentials, but significantly reducing visibilities through blowing and drifting snow. Near-whiteout conditions will be on the table at time sin the favored snowbelt locations, making travel difficult to even hazardous through at least early Tuesday.

The pattern relaxes somewhat allowing temperatures to recover slightly while still remaining below normal by mid week. Periodic snow chances continue through the remainder of the week, driven by lingering lake processes and passing disturbances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

SN could still mix with -FZDZ at times thru tomorrow. Periods of IFR visbys with heavier snow band possible at APN thru 12z. MVFR to IFR expected thru much of the period, with some improvements to MVFR/VFR by late afternoon...before more snow moves in and IFR returns around 0z Sun, esp for MBL/TVC. Low pressure to pass across the Straits of Mackinac thru 12z with a front swinging thru NW Lower MI thru 18z or so. E winds for CIU become N/NNW with time tonight; light and vrb at PLN into much of the day; APN could stay more S... and elsewhere SW to WSW likely till after 18z when winds shift to NW. Winds likely strongest at MBL/APN, around 10kts sustained. Could gust into the 25kt range in the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.