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KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler on Saturday, most notably across northeast lower Michigan.

- Localized frost possible Saturday night?

- Dry and warm through mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Northeast push of cooler air tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds down from the north. The place that will see the coolest temperatures on Saturday will be across northeast lower Michigan, due to the cold waters of Lake Huron and closer proximity to the cooler airmass. High temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s most locations and so all in all, still a pretty pleasant day. Winds start out a little breezy but decrease through the afternoon.

High pressure directly overhead, dry low level humidity, and light winds will foster efficient radiational cooling Saturday night. Blended in some MOS guidance to drop temps to some degree. Localized frost could be possible as a result, especially for the AuSable River Valley and subsequent notoriously cooler locations. Worth monitoring.

Otherwise, despite upper low diving across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast, high pressure and ridging will dominate northern MI later this weekend into much of next week. Consequently, precipitation free weather reigns supreme with temperatures in the 70s and 80s most locations. There will probably be subtle cooling when that upper low dives southward as winds turn more north to northeast, but current guidance does not suggest a whole lot. Heights really begin to build mid to late next week and thus temperatures soar well into the 80s once more.

Upper low tries to beat down the ridge overhead later next week into the weekend, with subsequent sfc low pulling moisture northward. Thus, we begin to introduce precipitation chances again late week. We'll see how this plays out in the future, but regardless, an extended period of sunny, warm, and dry weather is expected through much of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Weak cold front drops through this afternoon, could see an increase in 12-25kft cloud bases with this thru evening; otherwise, mostly clear. Non-zero shot at fog again at MBL tonight, maybe at APN, but not likely, with no cig/visby restrictions expected thru the period. Winds from W to NW this afternoon become NW/N, esp toward CIU/PLN/APN...and switch to NE and E overnight, largely remaining 7- 15kts. Expect LLWS tonight...25-35kts around 1500-2000ft, switching from NE early to E/ESE after 4-6z. Winds remain from the E/NE Saturday, slowly tapering off (esp at CIU/PLN) thru midday and beyond.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ349.