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KEY MESSAGES

-Light rainfall expected across Northern Michigan this Wednesday.

-Colder temperatures spread Thursday and Friday accompanied by scattered snow showers.

-High pressure returns this weekend with temperatures slowly building early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis: This morning's 500mb analysis depicts large-scale low pressure centered over Northern Ontario/Quebec with strong northern stream flow positioned over the Great Lakes Region. A shortwave currently over the Canadian Rockies deepens this evening and makes its way toward the Northwoods. At the surface, Northern Michigan remains benign as high pressure centered over Iowa keeps conditions dry this afternoon. Cloud cover builds this evening from the west as incoming low pressure tied to the aforementioned trough approaches. Subsequent rainfall will occur Wednesday, followed by isolated snow showers as the low pressure continues to progress downstream.

Cold air advection on the backside of this cyclone will occupy the region this weekend, with highs staying in the upper 30s to low 40s through Sunday. Long range ensembles show midlevel heights rising as the CWA becomes cut off from northern stream flow. Midlevel ridging will support high pressure through the rest of the forecast period with temperatures slowly building back into the 50s as we head into next week.

Forecast Details:

Tonight through Thursday: Pleasant weather will continue this afternoon through tonight as high pressure moves to our southwest. Current sunny skies will slowly be replaced by cloud cover building from the west. Light, disheveled rainfall will be observed Wednesday morning as surface low pressure progresses across the northern Ohio Valley. Even with deeper saturation to our south, enough low level moisture and lift associated with a weak cold front will produce around a tenth inch or so QPF through Wednesday.

More noticeable weather is in store for Thursday as cold cP air draws in from the north and begins to switch rainfall to snow showers. Unlike Wednesdays widespread rain chances, snow showers will be confined to cooler thermal profiles of the CWA. While rain and snow showers are expected across typical North to NNE zones overnight Wednesday through Thursday, the best areas of convergence expected to have snow stick to the ground will be south and west of Grand Traverse Bay, especially elevated terrain. Because surface temperatures remain near freezing and soil's are still warm from the abnormal fall season, areas that do observe accumulating snowfall are expected to remain less than an inch at this time. Lake effect rain with snow mixing in will continue through the day Thursday, but remain more cellular as diurnal disruptions over land limit horizontal roll convection.

Friday through Monday Outlook: Backside northerly flow continues through Thursday night into Friday affecting the same northern flow locations. Enhancement overnight with strong convergence over Grand Traverse Bay will continue to deliver highest intensity and accumulations to elevated terrain south of TVC and northern Wexford County. Highest probabilities of snow accumulations remain below an inch at this time, but if any bands can materialize with cold enough overnight lows, locally higher amounts could occur.

Subsidence building over the Great Lakes Region Friday afternoon/Saturday will dry conditions across the CWA and return high pressure through the remainder of the forecast period. Quiet and benign weather is supported with sunny skies and highs around 40. Temperatures trend warmer again early next week as northerly flow moves north of the Great Lakes region and surface winds turn south west. Widespread highs in the 50s can be expected as we head toward thanksgiving.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 419 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Will need to watch for some early morning fog/mist development. Confidence remains low in this occurring, so will continue to cover with just tempo wording for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions tonight under some increasing high and mid level clouds. MVFR producing cigs spread across the area from northwest to southeast on Wednesday, likely impacting all areas by the end of the afternoon. Scattered to numerous light showers will accompany this overcast, and when combined with some light mist, will likely result in some minor vis restrictions.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.