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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect/enhanced snow continues at times this evening through at least the end of the work week. Periods of significantly reduced visibility leading to hazardous travel across parts of northern Michigan.

- Dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills at times Thursday night - Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad troughing remains anchored across the eastern half to two-thirds of the CONUS for the foreseeable future. Embedded upstream shortwave over MN/northwest Ontario this afternoon will become the focus this evening through tonight locally. Beyond this, secondary cold front arrives Thursday night ushering in another blast of Arctic air through Saturday -- likely the coldest air of the season to date on Friday.

Forecast Details: Lingering synoptic support from this morning's system continues to depart off to the east this afternoon, although plenty of over lake instability to generate continued lake effect snow showers -- primarily in southwest flow areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Aforementioned upstream mid-level wave sits across northern MN with attendant surface low over western Lake Superior. These feature quickly race east into western Great Lakes this evening, ultimately providing an uptick in synoptic support for additional lake enhanced snow showers as early as late afternoon/ early evening into the overnight hours as low-level winds take on more of a westerly and eventually west-northwesterly component. The bulk of steadiest/heaviest synoptically aided snow likely to exit much of northern MI by 07-08z tonight. Greatest snow accum. early evening through tonight generally highest near and west of a line from Cadillac to Cheboygan -- on the order of 1-3", although some locally higher amounts up to 4" not out of the question, especially parts of southern Emmet, Charlevoix, Antrim and western Otsego counties. Winds do gradually ramp up this evening, but peak later tonight into Thursday -- as high as 30 mph during that latter time frame.

By later tonight into Thursday, a transition to pure lake effect expected to be underway. Most numerous/heaviest snow showers expected to flare up midday Thursday through the afternoon. Additional snow accumulation Thursday on the order of 1-3" across the typical northwest lower snow belts, perhaps up to 3-3.5" for far northern Chippewa County near Paradise/Whitefish Bay. As alluded to above, winds remain gusty at times through the day Thursday and when combined with snowflake size expected to becoming increasingly smaller with time as colder air begins to filter in, areas of significantly reduced visibility and hazardous travel are expected to continue.

In coordination with GRR, will go ahead and issue a winter weather advisory this evening through Thursday. While snow amounts aren't all that impressive, the combination of falling/blowing snow should leading to pockets of significantly reduced visibility and hazardous travel across much of northwest lower.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Primary concern through the long-term forecast period revolves around incoming shot of potentially dangerous cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night through Saturday. H8 temps progged to fall close to -30 C Friday morning. Surface temps in the single digits above zero Thursday evening plunge below zero by sunrise Friday. Daytime highs Friday near 0 F to the low single digits above zero area-wide before widespread sub-zero to the teens below zero Friday night. SAturday's highs in the single digits above zero to near 10 F. All of this made to feel colder by even a little wind, with the potential for dangerously cold wind chills at times through the entirety of the Thursday night - Saturday time frame. Latest trends support coldest wind chills early Friday morning (including the early morning commute/bus stop time) through Friday night -- anywhere from -15 to -30 F.

Otherwise, lake effect snow showers progged to continue through Friday, albeit in diminishing fashion. Some impact may continue though given the expected small flake size/pixie dust resulting in low visibilities where it does snow. Watching a couple potential disturbances for Sunday and again later Monday/Tuesday time frames that may bring more numerous/widespread snow showers into the forecast area, but lots of uncertainty as to how these waves evolve and potential interaction with late week/weekend southern stream energy.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 556 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Typical lake effect tafs through the period with a mixture of lower end VFR to MVFR cigs and visibilities. Most numerous MVFR producing snow showers expected to impact the western taf locations, with even brief periods of IFR conditions under passing heavier snow showers. Not expecting much accumulation at the taf locations...perhaps on the order of a few inches by the end of this taf period. Gusty west winds later tonight and Thursday may result in some patchy blowing and drifting snow as well.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ016-017- 021-022-099. Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ020- 025>027-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ086. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.