textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms this evening and tonight. Heaviest rain expected south of M-72, especially along/south of M-55 where 1"+ is possible.

- Strong to severe storms are possible again this evening into tonight. Primary hazards will be damaging winds and large hail.

- Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Subtle shortwave/jet max embedded in southwest mid/upper-level flow will punch overhead this evening and tonight. At the surface, a stationary boundary draped across the middle of the state and back across portions of the Midwest will provide the focus for thunderstorms over the next several hours. Little substantial airmass change should allow these boundaries to hang across the area into Thursday before eventually working south. Ridging looks to slide overhead for a brief time Friday before strong troughing digs across the central CONUS and Great Lakes this weekend.

Forecast Details:

Primary concern will be another expected round of thunderstorms later this evening and early tonight. Current confidence is that storms will fire much further upstream across parts of the Midwest this afternoon and eventually work east into Michigan -- similar to last night. That said, expectation is that strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will track slightly further south than what was observed last night. Highest threat area for strong storms and associated heavy rainfall will be south of M-72, and specifically along and south of M-55. This corridor has the potential to see additional rainfall totals of 1"+ overnight. Rainfall amounts taper off from south to north, ranging from 0.25"-0.5" near M-72 to around 0.10" across the Tip of the Mitt. Locally higher amounts are possible with any stray storms that track across this area. Any additional rainfall tonight will only exacerbate ongoing flooding across northern Michigan -- the magnitude and widespread nature of which is particularly impressive for the area.

Storms this evening will also carry the potential of producing severe weather. The most likely corridor of potential strong/severe storms will also be along/south of M-72 between 8 PM and 1 AM Wednesday. The primary concerns with any strong storms this evening on top of additional flooding will be damaging winds and large hail. Storm chances look to move out a few hours after midnight.

After tonight, patchy dense fog will be possible Wednesday morning again along with isolated light rain chances through most of the day before much better rain/storm chances return again late Wednesday into Thursday. A break in rain chances is anticipated on Friday with aforementioned ridging before more showers and storms are expected again on Saturday. Unfortunately for those across impacted flood areas, additional rain chances will likely only prolong impacts over the next several days as water levels try to come down. Now for the exciting part -- after a stretch of mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s, snow chances make a triumphant return on Sunday as temperatures plunge back into the 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 734 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Conditions deteriorate through the night with areas of FG and IFR to LIFR CIGs. VSBYs expected to decrease across all terminals, with 1/2 SM or lower at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances expected around 01Z and 05Z from KTVC and KMBL, VCTS possible at KAPN as well. Activity moves east through the night with continued IFR to LIFR VSBYs and CIGs. VSBYs slowly improve through the day on Wednesday although low CIGs continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None.