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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect/enhanced snow continues into Saturday

- Widespread light snow accumulations possible Sunday night into Monday

- Milder and active next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 301 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging across the western US...and broad troughing still holds on across the eastern US/continent...with NW flow across the middle of the US, including the Upper Great Lakes. Punch of PV crossing TX today along the southern edge of a baroclinic zone that stretches from Alberta to the central Plains to the Carolinas. Unseasonably cold air mass in place keeping the lake machine running today on WNW/NW flow. Strand of PV stretching from western Ontario through northern Lower MI this morning keeping LES a bit tamer across northern Lower; various niblets in the flow with some slightly more moist air north of this slipping across the EUP and persisting better snow bands up toward the Soo. Cold air mass also allowing the DGZ to be quite close to the ground...and not surprised to see SLRs this morning come in at 20-30 to 1...perhaps even a little more in a few spots.

Expect heights to rise through the afternoon as ridging starts to build in from the west. This will be in advance of another shortwave trough zipping through central Canada...which should approach the region late tonight and especially Saturday. A little gun-shy on the idea of drainage flow again tonight, given that it did not take place last night as expected...though guidance signals a bit better chance for tonight compared to last night...particularly with the idea of ridging building in from the west vs subtle troughing settling in from the north, suggesting a weaker pressure gradient overall, which drainage flow could have a shot at winning against. If drainage flow does not evolve...EUP (esp the Soo and perhaps to Brimley/Kinross) should stay a touch warmer overall with lingering snow showers skirting by to our north again...but if drainage flow does evolve, will be a much colder start to the morning (sub-zero temps possible) and the lingering snow bands could be shifted westward into central Chippewa county a bit more. Not impossible we could end up with some seeder-feeder action toward daybreak/12z as next bout of moisture slips in...but pesky dry layer could slow this idea.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 301 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Days 2-7 (Saturday through Friday)...

Saturday...aforementioned clipper zips in through the day. Expect some warm advection ahead of this, as well as winds shifting a little more westerly...becoming a little more NW again as it exits Saturday evening, taking synoptic moisture with it. Think the general idea for Saturday will actually be similar to Thursday...with lingering lake effect becoming boosted a bit by the addition of that synoptic moisture/forcing...and otherwise, a widespread light snow with periods of reduced visibilities/poor road conditions. HOWEVER...warm advection will again bring a deeper isothermal layer into the region (perhaps a couple hundred millibars deep)...and if this sets up in the DGZ with a bit better forcing aloft, more fluff-n-stuff (and higher snowfall totals) would almost certainly occur. For now, though, not expecting much more than a couple inches or so, as this feature should be relatively progressive overall.

Sunday-Monday...Expect high pressure and upper ridging to build in again Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of the clipper...but the break won't be for long. Niblet of PV from the Pacific looks to shove its way through the ridge across the central/northern US amid warm advection regime. This should try to enhance surface pressure falls across the Plains into the Midwest, though unclear attm if/how well an organized surface low will be able to eject eastward with additional ridging building in behind it going into Monday. Nevertheless...warm advection regime should allow better moisture to overspread the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night, bringing the potential for widespread accumulating snow back to the region...with some probabilistic guidance hinting at a 25-35 percent chance of 4 inches of snow in 24hrs over us Sunday night into Monday at this time. Given that this could be a wetter/denser snow...think it will have a bit more of an impact than the last couple days' fluff.

Tuesday-Friday...For now...looks like overall flow turns zonal across the US starting Monday and lasting through midweek. Some bits of energy trek through the flow, though...with signals attm pointing toward a disturbance Tuesday into Wednesday that could bring some rain and/or mixed precipitation to the region as it passes through. Beyond this...signals point toward potential for troughing to dig through the western half of the continent for late week with some strong surface pressure falls somewhere across the middle of the continent...though guidance is still struggling to determine how this will evolve and where the strongest surface responses will be. Still...given the zonal flow and earlier systems in the week...think we could be in the fray with this late week system (if it comes to fruition). P-type issues certainly possible depending on how far north the mild air is able to get...and think we will need to keep an eye on this going forward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Mix of VFR abd MVFR CIGs through the rest of this afternoon and into tonight, with light lake effect snow showers at times. Brief drops in VSBY possible KPLN & KCIU, but overall expecting VFR VSBYs for most. Next batch of light, but widespread precipitation will move in towards the end of the TAF cycle, with -SN overspreading the region from northwest to southeast starting ~15-18Z. Winds northwest 10G20KTs for some this afternoon, W or WNW on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.