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KEY MESSAGES

- Cool temperatures and patchy fog tonight.

- Rain/storm chances return early Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Seasonably impressive troughing and associated surface cyclone will churn east of the Great Lakes through Tuesday as ridging slides overhead. Subsidence provided aloft between these features will continue to build surface high pressure across the region through the beginning of the week. Potent shortwave troughing progresses over the Great Lakes again late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, bringing another system across us through the middle of the week. High pressure then looks to build back in by the end of the week and into this weekend.

Forecast Details:

Cloud cover across much of northern Michigan has diminished some over the last few hours as increasingly dry air is advected into the area from northwest winds and diurnal mixing has ensued. Clearing is expected to continue this evening into tonight as aforementioned high pressure centers overhead, combining with weak/calm winds to create efficient radiational cooling overnight -- and likely lead to patchy fog early Tuesday morning. Some chilly low temperatures are also anticipated across interior low-lying areas with readings potentially dipping well into the 40s. Dry weather will continue through Tuesday as more summer-like weather returns with partly to mostly sunny skies, less wind, and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Our next round of shower and thunderstorm chances returns early Wednesday morning as troughing punches across the Great Lakes. While some activity will be possible early Wednesday morning ahead of the cold front, steadiest rain/best coverage of showers and storms is anticipated in the late Wednesday morning/Wednesday afternoon timeframe as the front moves through. While an overall unimpressive environment looks to be in place on Wednesday given relatively meager buoyancy with skinny CAPE profiles and weak shear, a few strong storms cannot be completely ruled out along/ahead of the advancing front on Wednesday.

Shower/storm chances should begin to taper Wednesday night into Thursday, but at least slight chances for showers look to continue on Thursday with northwest winds and lingering low-level moisture on the backside of the departing system potentially support additional showers across the area. Temperatures look to cool a few degrees during the second half of the week after the frontal passage, warming back up into the upper 70s and low 80s for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 526 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Lower clouds will continue to scatter out this evening, leaving behind mostly clear to partly cloudy skies later tonight into Tuesday under some passing higher level clouds and a few high based cumulus. Concern later tonight into early Tuesday morning remains the possibility for some mist/light fog to develop. Confidence remains low on just how widespread and significant this mist/fog will become. Any fog/mist will quickly mix out after sunrise. Winds become light tonight into Tuesday, with some local afternoon lake breeze development expected on Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016- 018-020-024-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344.