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KEY MESSAGES

- Blizzard conditions at times tonight in snow/blowing/drifting.

- Unseasonably cold into Tuesday night. Winds chills in the minus teens in some areas tonight.

- Moderating temps Wednesday/Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

987mb low is moving ne from northern Lk Huron, and is starting to fill. However, the pressure gradient will tighten in the wake of this low over the next several hours, into this evening. Relaxation occurs overnight, but until then, falling and blowing snow will continue to produce high-end hazards, at least locally.

Considerable backing of the low-level flow is underway, but we will settle in this evening with nnw flow on northern Lake MI, and n on eastern Superior. Synoptic moisture will be on the wane for the rest of the afternoon and evening, with mostly pure lake effect banding expected overnight. The best QPF tonight, will be west of M-66 in nw lower MI, and in particular a bit west thru south of TVC. The majority of this area should pick up 1-4" tonight, but local amounts of 6-8" are possible. Some bands will also scrape by Rogers City/APN, in the evening and early overnight. Local 1-4" amounts here. In the UP, the north fetch is eventually unfavorable for most, though some bands will extend into far western Mack Co given the strong low-level flow. Isolated 1-3" there.

Winds increase into this evening, with gusts to 40 mph in the interior, and 45-50mph along exposed coastlines (especially nw lower). Those winds weaken overnight.

Headlines: MBL/FKS are having no problems occasionally dipping to 1/4SM this afternoon. Will have to keep an eye on them re: blizzard conditions, but will give the winter storm warning a chance. The blizz warning further north in northern lower (n of Leelanau in particular) is a tricky question. Not much snow is progged there tonight, and we don't normally do the ground-blizzard-thing here. Vsbys aren't all that low up there now (except Beaver Isl and very recently CVX). But we don't normally have 1-3 feet of very fresh snow to blow around, either. Decided to extend the blizz warning thru tonight. Winter storm warning for Gd Trav and Antrim Cos was also extended into tonight, more exposed to winds and with better snow than further east. Otsego and Presque Isle will be allowed to drop off as scheduled at 8 pm, at least for now. Further north, 1/4SM vsbys are becoming more common in and near eastern upper (CIU/MCD/ERY/ISQ). Blizz warning already up thru tonight, which is fine, but might be able to drop it a few hours early in Mackinac Co.

Chillier air will continue to be advected into the area. Lows will be in single digits above zero in eastern upper, n central and ne lower MI tonight. Winds chills will drop into the low-mid minus teens in these areas.

A ridge of high pressure builds east into lower MI Tuesday. Scattered snow showers continue into nw lower and far western Chip/Mack Cos in the morning, but things should gradually diminish during the day as drier air enters the region. Still unseasonably cold, with highs in the teens north, and mid teens to lower 20s south. Should be a window for some radiational cooling Tues night, before warm-advection-related mid and high clouds increase and thicken later. Again have cold overnight lows...near 0 at the Sault, single digits to mid teens in northern lower MI.

After that...the ridge west/trof east pattern will very gradually deamplify. Shortwaves digging into the eastern trof will contribute to pretty persistent precip chances. There's a good chance for snow showers on Wednesday, smaller chances of snow and rain after that. Max temps rebound to near freezing Wed, mid 30s to mid 40s Thursday. We stay in that general thermal regime into the start of the weekend, before cooling off a bit late in the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

SN and BLSN will continue through this afternoon and into the overnight. Heaviest snow likely across KCIU, KTVC, and KMBL through this evening. Winds will continue to be gusty as well, general 10-20G30-35KTs will higher gusts possible this evening and early overnight. Potential exists for locations without falling snow to still see VSBY reductions due to BLSN during this period of stronger winds. Slow tapering of lake effect snow into Tuesday, although lake effect will concentrate around and southwest of Grand Traverse Bay. CIGs generally MVFR, occasional bump down to IFR possible through this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Blizzard Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ016-017-020- 086>088-095>099. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ018- 022. Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ021-026. Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ025-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ027-032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.