textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures with dry weather through Thursday with increasing humidity, temperatures, and shower chances by late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Large scale thermal ridge axis remains over the western Plains and the eastern Front Range of the Rockies, with a wave over New England actively closing off. This leaves northern lower and eastern upper Michigan in the grip of a progressive flow regime, and quick moving shortwave features. Current shortwave ridge axis overhead coinciding with 500mb height rises and a broad 1017mb area of surface high pressure stretching from James Bay through the Ozarks. With this area of surface high pressure passing overhead, subsidence and lack of deeper moisture will suppress convective tendencies outside of some diurnally driven cumulus clouds through Thursday. Already seeing the budding stages of the next wave set to crest the ridge axis after monsoonal convection manifests over the eastern Great Basin into WY / ID.

Anticipation is that this wave comes with a modest convective charge across the western Corn Belt Thursday. As the wave approaches, aforementioned wave over New England set to have been ingested by broader longwave trough over Atlantic Canada. Result will be a turn of flow to more northerly over the Great Lakes. As such, the approaching wave from the west will likely be forced a bit more southerly Friday into Saturday. Current trends support this more southerly turn with this ensuing wave to focus any vigorous convective responses to our south and west, and thus limiting deeper moisture (widespread 70+ surface dewpoints) from reaching the region. Nonetheless, with return flow providing enough moisture to support scattered convection Friday and into Saturday. In the wake of this wave, anticipating another round of 500mb height rises to suppress rain chances heading into early next week, with guidance perhaps hinting at another wave approaching some time toward the end of or perhaps just beyond the current forecast period.

Details:

Dry and Seasonably Warm Today; A Touch More Humid Thursday: Surface high pressure really puts a lid on sensible weather across the region the next couple days. Mostly sunny skies to prevail, aside from some afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for late July. Highs peak in the mid 70s to low 80s today, with overnight lows in the 55-65 range tonight. More of the same into Thursday, however, subtle moisture plume associated with the incoming wave may try to start leaking into the region, which may force dewpoints to approach 60 during the day, adding a touch more noticeable humidity to the region. Warming temps aloft should nonetheless allow for a warmer day at the surface with continued efficient mixing, ranging 80 to 88. For the time being, these warmer temperatures aloft should keep us capped, but will have to see how strong the cap is. Lake breezes will likely be active, so suppose there is potential for some convection in northeast lower; however, guidance isn't exactly enthusiastic about the idea with continued subsidence overhead, so will opt to leave this out of the forecast./. will note increasing SREF PoP trends, so entirely possible a shower or two gets added into the next forecast cycle or two. A touch more warmth overnight Thursday into Friday... with overnight lows Thursday night probably settling into the low-to- upper 60s for most... perhaps some upper 50s in the interior terrain of northeast lower where return flow will be weakest Thursday night.

Rain Chances: Next wave set to approach the region Friday and into Saturday as the 500mb trough axis traverses the Great Lakes. Aforementioned southerly dive in the track of this wave will be detrimental to us seeing widespread rainfall, as deeper moisture and more robust thunderstorm development parameters favor areas just SW of the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, the intrusion of moisture and subtly steeper lapse rates aloft may be just enough to support some mesoscale driven shenanigans up yonder... with southerly return flow anticipated Friday, may need to watch for any lake breeze generated convection over northeast lower during the day before any stratiform / weaker convective rains build Friday night into Saturday. Certainly not looking like a widespread washout across the region, with plenty of dry time into Saturday, but enough to inconvenience summer leisure activities at times. Again, this does not look like a widespread rain by any means... and the lack of deeper moisture may leave much to be desired in the rainfall department. Genuinely would not surprise me if some areas didn't receive any rainfall. Following the passage of this wave, we look to dry out by Sunday, with the next rain chance perhaps returning at the very end of the forecast pattern, or the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR. High pressure overhead will lead to light northerly to northwest winds through the day, tapering after sunset. No clouds to speak of through the forecast period aside from a cumulus deck that should stay 5kft or higher, initially favoring APN and CIU before spreading across the area into Thursday morning / afternoon. Winds turn southerly and westerly into Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.