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KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and breezy at times with accumulating lake effect snow potential across parts of northern MI through Saturday morning.

- Drying out late in the weekend with a warming trend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified upper-level pattern exists this afternoon across NOAM with overall little change to this anticipated through Friday night. Longwave troughing evident over the eastern half of continent, including the Great Lakes, with upstream ridging over the desert southwest northward through the Rockies. Sfc low pressure that passed through the Ohio Valley last night is now centered near MD/DE/NJ with cold air advection well underway locally in the wake of that system. Primary focus over the next ~48 hours will be on lake effect rain/snow potential, perhaps occasionally aided synoptically by mid-level perturbations pinwheeling through the aforementioned parent troughing overhead.

Mid-upper level heights rise this weekend with upstream troughing making a run at the Great Lakes early next week. Some semblance of upper ridging (varying amplification) may continue through much of next week. Largely dry conditions expected to return Sunday along with a return of above normal temperatures -- potentially through at least the middle to end of next week, as surface high pressure is expected to largely dominate the mid-upper MS Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley.

Forecast Details: Numerous showers ongoing early this afternoon, in particular across sections of northern lower MI. Some snow mixing in as well across higher terrain spots, even with a little bit of localized accumulation (Nubs Nob ski hill webcam showing a minor accum.). These showers aided by a mid-level wave currently departing to the south. By this evening, another incoming shortwave is expected to provide a renewed uptick in synoptic moisture/support, combined with an ample over-water thermal gradient (H8 temps -7 to - 10 C / delta Ts ranging from 18-21 C). Focus for this forecast package will largely be on the 18-hour window from this evening through midday Friday, especially near and west of Traverse City, given north to north-northeast low-level flow. Latest trends support a transition to mainly snow showers across parts of these areas this evening, especially away from the immediate lakeshores of Grand Traverse, Leelanau and Benzie counties. While the expectation is for lake effect banding to be fairly localized across these counties, heavier precip rates are likely to allow for a transition to all snow. Increasing moisture depth through the column and a deepening DGZ by late evening may support localized snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr under heavier banding (especially as you increase elevation away from lake), and thus brings high probabilities for the season's first localized accumulation. Main limiting factor will be surface temps progged in the mid-30s, but this may become a moot point as evaporational cooling in any heavier banding sufficiently cools the surface temps several degrees. Ground temps are still warm and while this may have some effect on accumulation, past season's early events have proved that if it snows heavy enough, the ground temp really doesn't matter a whole lot. Highest probabilities (60-80%) for snow in excess of 2" by 18z Friday are highest across central Leelanau, north/northeast Benzie and western Grand Traverse. Lower probabilities (20-45%) of 4"+ across those same areas, and even some very localized non-zero (<10%) for accum greater than 8". All this said, favored accum. across these areas ranges from 1-4", with locally higher amounts possible. Will go ahead with a Winter Weather Advisory for Grand Traverse, Benzie and Leelanau counties -- again the highest accums favored for inland areas of western Grand Traverse, northern Benzie and central Leelanau.

Accumulation across northeast lower expected to be less tonight through midday Friday, but still may have some localized impacts. Probabilities away from the immediate lakeshores of Alcona/Iosco counties for 2"+ of snow range from 10-25% and ~5% chance for 4"+. Favored accumulation in these areas varied from 0.5 - 2.0", but it'll be a spot for monitoring for any potentially locally heavier banding. Elsewhere across northeast lower and across western Chip/Mack counties in the eastern U.P., generally an inch or less of snow is favored.

While some potential exists for the northwest lower advisory needing to be extended for part of the area beyond 18z Friday, confidence decreases as winds begin shift more northerly Friday afternoon and eventually more north-northwesterly by late Friday night. Some accumulation potential exists through this time frame, especially in favored north flow lake effect areas, but continued marginal surface temperatures, less favorable synoptic moisture and shrinking inversion heights yields more uncertainty.

Any lingering rain/snow showers diminish through the day on Saturday with dry conditions anticipated Sunday through at least the middle of next week. High temps both Saturday and Sunday ranging from the upper 30s to mid-40s area-wide are expected to moderate into the mid- upper 40s for Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday looking mild by mid- November standards with lots of low-mid 50s favored for afternoon highs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 647 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

A mix of mainly MVFR and VFR conditions will continue. Lake effect clouds will continues, and as is tradition, they are most commonly high-end MVFR to low-end VFR. Somewhat lower conditions will be favored tonight at APN and TVC, where the n to nne low- level flow will generate the most clouds and -SHSNRA. Northerly breezes continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ020-025- 026. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ347. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342- 344>346.