textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Again Today and Wednesday

- Rain continues with occasional rumbles of thunder possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Amplified flow across the CONUS attm...with strong Pacific jet driving troughing eastward into the West Coast...resulting in the ridge axis bubbling up over the PacNW/Intermountain West. Broad troughing over the central US with flow somewhat split as northern stream PV max progresses across Manitoba rather quickly, leaving some energy to get cut off over MT...as closed 560dam upper low spins over KS...and a subtle PV max over the Upper Midwest (with attendant surface low over central MN). Ridge axis builds eastward into the OH Valley, bubbling up over us as troughing slides into the North Atlantic and additional PV maxima down the East Coast. 120kt upper jet traversing the flow attm...both poking into CA out west, and downstream over Quebec on the back of that trough, where a stationary boundary stretches from western Ontario toward northern ME. Plume of highly anomalous moisture over the eastern half of the CONUS, particularly over the Upper Midwest into Ontario where pwats well over an inch are 4-5 standard deviations above the climo mean...thanks both to Pacific moisture as well as enhanced return flow through the MS Valley...as southerly low-level jet ramps up to 40-50kts or more from the Lower MS Valley up into the Upper Great Lakes; equally strong northerly "cold" conveyor belt through the Plains behind the surface trough with a notable meridional deformation axis in satellite imagery over the central Plains...albeit not overly cold, as 850mb temps struggle to drop below zero out there attm. +12C air at 850mb spreading northward into the Upper Great Lakes even as of 7z, with temps at this hour in the mid to upper 50s across northern MI; in the 60s over WI, deeper into the warm sector of this system...though the more noteworthy convection remains well south over the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley ahead of that closed upper low and attendant 1000mb surface low, where the atmosphere is more unstable. Stratiform rain is the name of our game attm, driven by warm advection and frontogenesis...as well as some gravity waves traversing the flow.

The two aforementioned surface lows in the central Plains and Upper Midwest to congeal into an elongated area of troughing through the rest of the day, before the energy across the central Plains lifts northward through the Mid MS Valley and tightens up the surface low over the Upper Midwest tonight...slowly meandering northwestward through Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing additional showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder to the region. Energy currently expected to punch into the western US to eventually make its way through the central US, too, helping to eject the upper low over the Midwest, which should get picked up by northern stream energy crossing Hudson Bay; this latter feature to dig into the Upper Great Lakes region Thursday/Thursday night, keeping north to northeast flow relatively strong over the Upper Great Lakes between this and approaching surface high over central Canada. High pressure to try to overtake our region going into the end of the work week, though it remains unclear attm how quickly troughing will be punted eastward out of the Great Lakes...which suggests a chance for continued unsettled weather going into the weekend. Still looking like some troughing will try to persist over the eastern continent this weekend, though signals for deep, persistent troughing for the end of the period seem to be waning. Pacific jet looks to remain strong through the period, which should keep flinging energy eastward into North America, and gives a vibe of keeping things more progressive and active into the start of the second week of November.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain today through the rest of the week; thunder threat around? We are starting to lose the better forcing as of 8z...and think this general idea will hang on into the rest of the day as we sit sort of between the northern part of the system over the Upper Midwest, and the southern part currently over the Mid MS Valley...though best shot at forcing, at least through the first half of the day, should be across the Yoop, closer to the warm front and northern PV maxima. Difluence should increase this afternoon into tonight as that upper low swirls northeastward up the MS Valley; this should result in a second wave of precipitation crossing the area this afternoon into tonight. Pwats will remain quite elevated (likely 1.5+in, esp for the Tip of the Mitt and Yoop)...but there are not really strong signals for forcing over here, which could limit QPF for us. (Better forcing looks like it will remain upstream.) Warm cloud layers will be relatively deep for early November (0z/03 freezing level of 12,400ft gives more of a summer vibe), and could allow for some enhancement of QPF today. There could be some drizzle around today, though not sure if we will have enough forcing to support this (except for perhaps upsloping on the interior higher terrain). Still looking at rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.0in across the EUP by late tonight...though most of it should fall through this morning. Still looking much drier across much of northern Lower, with only a few hundredths or less.

Guidance soundings suggest there could be a rogue rumble of thunder across parts of the area today, though instability aloft is quite weak overall. Think the setup Wednesday could result in some thunder, noting the potential for dry slotting to wrap in during the afternoon as the shortwave trough axis swings northward and some energy may try to lift across the region. Wednesday should also bring another shot at rainfall, given signals for more notable forcing with the PV max. Dry slotting should also support convective instability that could in theory lead to some rumbles of thunder, too. Showers should linger into Thursday as the trough axis and moisture passes overhead; 850mb temps fall back to or below 0C, which will be close to producing overlake instability, and would not be surprised to see lake clouds (and perhaps lake-enhanced showers) around.

High temps today should remain warm, though cloud cover will likely keep things from mixing too deeply. We are starting out quite warm, though, noting lows haven't moved much thus far this morning, and guidance soundings suggest we could mix up to 925-850mb today, supportive of highs reaching into the 70s, especially across northern Lower. If we can break out into sun and mix a little deeper (closer to 850mb), some locales could try to make a run at the mid/upper 70s. Best shot at this would be our Saginaw Bay region, displaced from the deeper moisture...though some southerly flow could lead downsloping and warmer highs toward Onaway/Atlanta. Wednesday's highs should be warm again, though temps aloft do look to fall during the day as the upper low swirls our way; they will fall further beyond Wednesday, with temperatures looking to return to a little more normal going into the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Showers will continue this morning, esp for the EUP but less certain elsewhere as we may have a break...though DZ/BR possible during the day. IFR to MVFR cigs at 12z (could be as log as LIFR at CIU) should slowly improve to MVFR and VFR by afternoon...CIU could remain MVFR all day. Showers return toward 21-00z and beyond, with occasional drops to IFR, but think MVFR to VFR will prevail for most sites. Not impossible there could be some TS but not likely, and have left out of TAFs for now. Winds S to SW 5-15kts today turning SE, could gust as high as 25-35kts but more likely remain closer to 20-25kts. LLWS possible early this morning and again tonight, still S/SW around 35- 40kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.