textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas in eastern upper will primarily see times of light to moderate snow today, with totals adding up to 1 to 3 inches. Locally higher amounts up to 5 inches will be possible near the SOO.

- Times of light rain and/or wintry mix today for areas along and north of M-72 this afternoon. Drizzle and rain showers spread across most of northern lower tonight.

- Light precipitation chances linger into Sunday with cooler air gradually seeping in and settling over northern MI.

- An unsettled pattern continues next week, with the next chances for precipitation arriving Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Large scale pattern consists of an absolute UNIT of a ridge across the western CONUS, driving all-time monthly record warmth by large margins across the desert southwest, and daily record highs leaking into the Plains. Quick zonal flow running WNW from Alberta to the Great Lakes driving a series of waves, with a stationary / warm front suppressing that warmth well south of northern Michigan. Open wave with an associated 998mb surface low pressure currently driving a warm advection wing across the region, with just enough saturation to force some wet snow across eastern upper through the rest of the afternoon, with some snowflakes flipping to rain across northern lower. As far as accumulations go in eastern upper, anticipating a general 1 to 3 inches of snow by the time snowfall tapers late this afternoon into the evening, followed by a period of drizzle / freezing drizzle through the evening into early tonight. Probably not enough to drive headlines, will handle with an SPS.

Meanwhile, south of the bridge, surface warm front is currently lifting through, and producing very large snowflakes transitioning to sleet and drizzle as precipitation moves overhead. This should be short lived, as northern lower winds up firmly in the warm sector with temps warming considerably the farther south one goes this afternoon. As such, have handled this snowfall with an SPS as well. Temps should land in the mid-upper 30s to near 40 from the bridge to M-72... which should hopefully stave off any icing concerns on Mighty Mac... to near 50 along the M-55 corridor. Anticipating the mild temps to hold overnight, with most places remaining above freezing across northern lower. As a surface cold front passes through, just enough moisture traverses the region to drive a band of rain showers across northern lower midnight and after... probably south of M-68... that could end as some snow flurries as a polar airmass briefly reestablishes itself. This band of showers should clear Saginaw Bay 12-14z / 8-10am Sunday.

Will have to contend with another period of low cloud / stratus through the day Sunday as low-level moisture becomes trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. This will stunt highs into the 30s with quite the gloomy feel. Eventually, the influences of surface high pressure in the wake of the cold front should produce enough subsidence to scour out that moist layer later in the day Sunday, which will lead to clearing skies from north to south late Sunday afternoon into the evening. Lows will respond as such, dipping well into the teens and perhaps even single digits in eastern upper / Straits area. More sunshine in the cards for Monday as 500mb height rises commence, but with the core of the polar airmass overhead, anticipating below average highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. We do commence a slight warming trend with temps returning to more seasonable levels by midweek before we see-saw up and down to end the week. This pattern of weak warm advection wings driving nuisance light mixed precipitation events (snow north, rain south, some sort of mix in between) will not slow down, with quick hitting systems set to pass through both Tuesday and again Wednesday night into Thursday. Will have to watch this closely... so far in March, it seems as though Mackinac Bridge closures are about as common as the sun coming up in the morning. That will continue to be possible through next week as we do a good-old fashioned northern Michigan thaw... slow and steady while the rest of the country basks in warmth. So if you're in the mood for late-season winter recreation... we're going to have plenty of it going into April.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 158 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

-SN and BR will continue to spread this afternoon, mainly impacting KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN. -RA and SHRA will then move into all sites tonight. MVFR and IFR CIG's/VSBY's are expected to continue tonight spreading south, eventually reaching KTVC and KMBL around 09Z. Flight conditions will improve this Sunday, with most TAF sites reaching VFR by the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.