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KEY MESSAGES

- Brief period of snow showers late this afternoon into this evening across parts of northern MI.

- Moderating temperatures heading into next week; potential for active and wet pattern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave trough axis sits downstream over the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon with upstream ridging over the Intermountain West. Northern MI lies between these two features through tonight, although broad low-amplitude longwave ridging is expected to build across the nation's midsection tomorrow through early this coming week. Focus over the next 24 hours revolves around this evening as a subtle mid-level shortwave and associated weak warm advection treks across northern MI, likely bringing another brief round of snow to parts of the area. Spring-like warmth builds in tomorrow through Tuesday with a return to more active weather as early as Monday night/Tuesday, and again late in the week.

Forecast Details: Initial focus through tonight revolves around incoming aforementioned wave and associated brief snow chances. Latest regional radar shows an area of snow upstream near Duluth to north of International Falls. This is expected to quickly race east and fill in somewhat prior to arriving into primarily the eastern U.P. and far northern lower this evening. This brief round of snow may fall briefly moderate to locally heavy at times, but latest trends continue to support an inch or less of new accumulation.

Partial sunshine expected Sunday-Monday with daytime high temperatures north of the bridge generally in the low-mid 40s. South of the bridge, Sunday's highs in the mid-40s to mid-50s climb into the 60s for some on Monday/Tuesday (most likely near and south of M- 72). Precip chances arrive as early as Monday evening, with chances lingering through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The bulk of precip expected to fall as rain, even with some thunder chances Monday night - Tuesday. Perhaps a rogue stronger storm as well, hinted at by SPC's latest D3 outlook with a Marginal Risk nosing into far southwestern areas of the forecast area. Wouldn't be all too surprised to see this risk area include a larger portion of northern lower on Tuesday given a low CAPE/high shear environment. That said, by later Tuesday/Tuesday evening as cooler air begins to filter back in on the north side of this system, some wintry mixed precip may rear its head across parts of the eastern U.P., with at least low probs for some minimal ice accumulation and related travel impacts.

Beyond this sytem, the midweek time frame looks rather tranquil, albeit cooler with highs back into the 30s for most areas. While confidence is increasing in another round of inclement weather towards the tail end of the week (Thursday/Friday), low confidence exists with respect to the degree of cold air still in place and resultant precip type.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

SHSN will spread this evening at KCIU and KPLN, resulting in a brief period of TEMPO MVFR CIG's and VSBY's. Otherwise VFR condtions are expected at KAPN, KTVC, and KMBL through the entirety of the forecast period. Strong low level wind shear develops overnight at all TAF sites mainly between 0600Z and 1200Z Sunday. Winds will gust up to 25kts at 2000ft AGL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.