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KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow later today and mainly tonight, mainly near and south of M-72, near Whitefish Point, and Grand Traverse Bay.

- Much colder this weekend, low temps below zero for some.

- Temperatures moderate next week, active weather/precipitation chances returning to the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1107 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Surface high pressure system will dive southeast through the day today across the Northern Plains - Upper Midwest. On the cusp of the low level temperature gradient will be a band of frontogenesis, one of which will situate across the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region, while troughing remains to the north across Canada. Most guidance points to this feature remaining near or just to the south of M-55, with the potential for a light snowfall for portions of northern lower Michigan later today into tonight. Meanwhile, cold low level temps and northwest winds will result in some lake effect snow across the E UP, and additionally in the vicinity of the Leelanau Peninsula and Grand Traverse Bay. Could see a couple of inches of snow near Whitefish Point, and then near/south of M-72 as well later today and into portions of the overnight due to the frontogenetical forcing. Expect a general 1 to 2" in spots south of M-55, with 1 to locally maybe near 3" in the lake effect zones from GTB and the Leelanau Peninsula through tonight. Could be a little breezy in spots today as well early.

Final piece of energy amongst this trough complex to the north swings through tonight into the early portions of Sunday, with sfc high pressure building in overhead. Cannot rule out a few snow showers across the eastern UP, but nothing significant. Little break in the action remains into Monday as heights begin to rise and more zonal flow takes over temporarily. Thus, temperatures will begin to rebound with 20s and 30s for highs on Monday.

Short wave within the more west to east flow may aid in an area of precipitation on Tuesday, although uncertainty remains in regards to the exact extent and type of precipitation. The bulk of the precip will likely remain to the south associated with a frontal boundary and moisture advection. GEFS and GEPS suggest this as well, with light precip and the bulk of it to the south whereas the EPS guidance (18Z) is a little more robust, but still the bulk of the precip to the south. So, at this juncture, could be some minor wintry precip on Tuesday with temperatures hovering around freezing (few pieces of guidance show a wintry mix in the vicinity as well).

Active weather likely continues during the latter portions of next week with energy moving out of the Southwest and up into the OH Valley/Great Lakes Region. This time precipitation likely remain on the wet rather than white side as temperatures moderate well above freezing for most.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 911 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Gusty west and northwest surface winds will continue through the early overnight, at times nearing 35 to 40 knots. Northwest winds gradually diminish heading through today, with winds becoming light this evening. Lake clouds develop this morning, perhaps bringing some higher end MVFR conditions at both KCIU and KPLN, with any lower cigs likely mixing out some by this afternoon. Trends support VFR conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies at the other taf locations today. Will have to watch for MVFR cigs and perhaps a bit of light snow to develop this evening...especially at KMBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ086>088-095>098. MARINE...None.