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KEY MESSAGES

-Showers and storms return this Tuesday.

-Hot and humid weather builds midweek and beyond with continued periodic chances of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

500mb longwave ridging pattern builds across the eastern half of the CONUS and low level temperatures will slowly build over the next several days. Subsidence aloft will support quiet and overall dry weather through Monday with light winds from the southeast. An embedded wave develops over the central plains and progresses northeast across the Great Lakes Region. Showers and storms return to the northwoods Tuesday into Wednesday providing some added relief to the recent lack of rain.

Biggest focus through the entire forecast period remains the hot and humid weather Wednesday through Friday from the previously mentioned midlevel ridging and southerly air influence. Widespread highs in the 80s to mid 90s are expected through the end of the week before upstream troughing returns slightly cooler temperatures next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight and Monday:Surface high pressure will continue to support quiet and dry weather through the next 36-48 hours. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s this Monday with little to no wind. Dew points will slowly increase through the day ahead of the approaching system, leading to more humid weather as the day progresses.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Aforementioned embedded shortwave over the Central Plains will develop surface low pressure this week and lift into the Great Lakes Region by Tuesday. As a result of this system's weak and relatively disheveled set-up, discrete storms will be the driving force behind the majority of rainfall rather than an organized line. Highest probabilities of QPF remain between 0.25" and 0.50", but many areas are expected to observe more or less than this number as model soundings depict profiles that support localized heavy rain of an inch or more (PWATs at or above daily climo max). Severe threat remains pretty minimal as the majority of shear remains upstream on the other side of Lake Michigan. Warmest day of the week will remain on Wednesday as another upstream system places the Great Lakes Region into its warm sector with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Thursday through Sunday Outlook: Upstream troughing begins to influence the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday with another round of convective driven showers. Some strong and potentially severe storms be possible as plenty of moisture and instability remains ahead of the front. SPC will keep the strongest potential to our south at this time due to higher amounts of shear building across southern Michigan.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 641 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

High pressure in control across the northern Great Lakes through Monday. Some localized ground fog possible late tonight, but chances are too low to include in the TAFs. Light winds tonight becoming generally southeast on Monday as high pressure gradually slips east of the area. Outside of some higher clouds at times, VFR conditions and dry.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.