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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances build tonight through Saturday.

- Low confidence chance for rain/showers Tuesday.

- Below normal temps most afternoons through mid next week, moderating thereafter?

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Northwest flow aloft remains on this Friday as expansive and deep troughing continues to spin off to the north across Canada. That being said, subtle height rises will drive milder temperatures today across the region, with mid 50s to low 60s in spots (still below normal for most). Deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and breezy conditions as well, especially just away from the shorelines with gusts 20 to 25 mph for most, but occasionally up to 30 mph due to the deep mixing. Thus, the only concerns today will be fire weather related with elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

On the southern periphery of the trough to the north, a robust short wave and subsequent sfc low pressure system will move southeast tonight into Saturday. Consequently, lift will overspread northern MI and thus bring the next chance for rain showers. This will be a combination of the lift aloft and sfc convergence from the low pressure system and subsequent frontal boundary. High temps (50s vs 60s) and thunderstorm forecast hinges on the advancement of this frontal boundary, but at this time, at least an isolated chance for thunderstorms looks possible (although trending in the wrong direction perhaps), esp northeast lower MI on Saturday. Additionally, the environment is really not all that rich with PWs near climatological norms for this time of year and thus most pieces of guidance suggest generally light to maybe modest precipitation amounts from this event.

Cooler and drier air works in behind this system and frontal boundary, and so despite vigorous troughing moving into northern MI, only minor showery activity is anticipated on Sunday. It will be cooler once again with highs in the low to mid 50s as well.

There will likely be a chance or two for precipitation next week, the one to investigate being later Tuesday. The EPS and GEPS keep most of the meaningful precipitation south of northern lower Michigan. However, a couple of the operational runs have been wavering, a few from the 00Z suite are farther north. Thus, this event bares watching.

Outside of the precip potential, a general increase in heights aloft is expected across the region and thus, a steady warming trend through the end of next week. Combine this fact with the CPC 8-14 Day (May 15-21) outlook highlighting a large swath of the central CONUS, including the Great Lakes Region, in above normal temps and latest longer range ensemble guidance aligning with this thought... perhaps an extended stretch of mild to warm weather is upon us. Cautious optimism for sure but one backed up by longer range data.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan through the end of the period. Mid/high cloud will continue to slide from west to east across the area tonight with at least some clearing expected on Friday. Weak and variable to calm winds tonight will increase out of the west Friday morning. Sustained wind speeds around 10 kts with gusts to 15-25 kts are expected through the afternoon. Winds look to shift to east-southeast at APN Friday afternoon as lake breeze formation pushes inland.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 022>024-027>030-032>036. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ020-021-025- 026-031-041-042-098-099. MARINE...None.