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KEY MESSAGES

- Significant ice accumulations expected across northeast Lower Michigan tonight into Wednesday morning. Several inches of snow possible for parts of the EUP.

- Active weather continues, with several inches of snow possible Friday and a more potent system Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Blocking pattern setting up over the north central Pacific...with broad troughing from the Gulf of Alaska into the PacNW and Canadian Prairies with a 160+kt upper jet following the baroclinic zone from OR to ND to central Quebec, passing just to our north. In the southern stream...cutoff low over northwest Mexico starting to eject into the Desert SW of the US...with sharpening ridge axis ahead of it across the MS Valley. As a result...return flow bringing Gulf moisture into the southeastern US/Mid MS Valley...even sneaking as far as the OH Valley. Here in the Great Lakes...we remain near the low-level thermal gradient...with colder 850mb (sub-zero) temps passing to our north and east on WNW flow...and warmer weather to our south focusing more into the OH Valley with low-level flow there turning more WSW...leaving us in a bit of a deformation region along said thermal gradient. At the surface...1025mb high pressure over northern Ontario...and 1022mb high over the FL panhandle...with a stationary boundary stretching from NoCal through the Central Plains...into southern MI...and up generally along the St. Lawrence Seaway, where it becomes more of a cold front into southeast Canada and New England.

Surface low pressure will track into the Upper Great Lakes tonight...winding up as it passes us early Wednesday. Expect a wintry mess tonight into Wednesday, with even some thunder mixed in tonight across the southwest in particular...followed by blustery and cool conditions for Wednesday. (Quite the change from Monday.) Only a short break from the synoptic action on tap...with the next clipper system already digging into the Midwest by later Thursday. This next feature will be a potent quick-hitter, with another tightly-wound surface low crossing the Upper Great Lakes Friday. The hits just keep on coming...with an amplifying shortwave across the western US looking to eject eastward this weekend...likely spinning up another strong storm system across the central US/OH Valley region. Quite a bit of uncertainty yet in the details for that last one...but certainly looks like the breezy/windy and active conditions will continue through the middle of the month.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Wintry mix tonight, with ice accumulation concerns... Expecting several inches of wet snow across western Chippewa county tonight and have elected to issue a Winter Storm Warning to account for this idea. Between here and the Straits, closer to 3-6 inches of snow is expected...possibly mixing with some sleet at times. Think there is potential for things to transition over to a bit of lake effect/enhancement on N to NW flow Wednesday.

Ice concerns...have spent the last couple hours debating this...but finally went ahead with the ice storm warning...as latest guidance is strongly pointing toward significant totals of freezing rain over the next 24hrs. Primary swath of concern is northeast Lower, particularly from Alpena/Harrisville toward Roscommon, effectively between M-32 and M-72/M-55...where there is higher confidence in seeing at least a quarter inch of ice accumulation. This is the area where it seems like there is a better shot of northeasterly flow keeping the low-levels drier and cooler below the warm nose (not to mention the higher terrain tends to run a little cooler at the surface anyway...and upsloping easterly flow should only encourage that idea). Hi-res probabilistic guidance is hinting at the potential (40 percent) for up to a half inch of ice across this area...potentially as far south as Oscoda to West Branch. (Not gonna lie...there is a non-zero chance of greater than 0.75in of ice, which is unsettling to see after last year.) Think this latter idea will be the worst case scenario, and certainly hope this does not happen at all, let alone where we saw significant impacts from last year's ice storm.

HOWEVER...there are some caveats that could lower ice totals and bust the forecast (not gonna lie again...as a human being, I'd prefer the bust). First and foremost...the low-level cold layer could be deep enough and/or cold enough to lead to sleet rather than freezing rain...which is possible given some guidance soundings. It could also be possible the low-levels don't cool enough to support freezing rain, particularly if things moisten up quicker than things cool down and keep things too warm. Secondly...there is still some uncertainty in the placement of the highest QPF swaths tonight, and not impossible convective activity to our south robs us of better moisture (as yesterday's forecaster mentioned)...with some guidance actually almost dry in the Ice Storm Warning area tonight. Think the higher accumulations are at least in part based on the higher QPF areas...but the brisk easterly winds tonight combined with any liquid precip, even lighter rates, could certainly lead to ice accumulations (this tends to be a better setup for efficient ice accumulation). Not a straightforward forecast by any means, but have enough confidence/concern to go ahead with the ice storm warning (as much as we know it will freak people out...not gonna lie again...it's freaking me out).

Active weather ahead...no rest for the weary, and to be honest, haven't looked too deeply into the forecast beyond tonight/Wednesday. But next niblet expected to dive into the area along BCZ left from tonight's system later Thursday into Friday with some weaker stability aloft and some saturated layers...which suggests a shot at a better bang for our QPF buck...and this time it should be cold enough for all snow. This, too, should be wound up...with breezy winds further leading to impacts along with potential for several inches of snow across some portion of the area. (700mb low track could be across the Tip of the Mitt, and would focus the highest snow totals in this vicinity.)

Sunday's system may be yet more impactful...with strong signals attm for the BCZ to amplify again across the MS Valley/OH Valley...with cold air to dig in behind it...and strong southwesterly flow with Gulf moisture ahead of it... along with a potent surface low to track across the OH Valley vicinity. Current signals support the idea of a tightly wound surface low with ample moisture and forcing, suggesting breezy and likely wintry conditions across some part of the Midwest...with some lake effect possible on the backside as well going into early next week...with convection in the warm sector. One thing is for sure: winter is not done with us yet.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 143 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR to start for most terminals, deteriorating through the evening and overnight as a wintry mix and snow overspread the region. Expect CIGs to drop to MVFR, to eventually IFR most locations with VSBYs decreasing to 1-4SM as well due to -SN and any -FZRA/-PL. Under heavier SN VSBYs could lower below 1 SM as well at KCIU. Snow mainly for KCIU, mix of -PL/-FZRA/-SN at KPLN and KAPN, -FZRA at KTVC, and mainly -RA at KMBL. Heaviest icing expected at KAPN. Most persistent precipitation moves in ~01-04Z through 12Z, with a general lightening through the rest of the morning hours, although -DZ/-FZDZ will remain.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016>018-087-088-095>099. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ020>023-025>027-031>033-036-041-042. Ice Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ024-028>030-034-035. Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ086. MARINE...None.