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KEY MESSAGES

- Evolving high impact winter weather event tonight through Tuesday morning.

- More widespread snow Wednesday with a bit of a reprieve from the cold.

- Coldest air of this outbreak may arrive Friday/Saturday.

DISCUSSION/

Issued at 341 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Full-latitude long wave trough anchored over the eastern two-thirds of North America this Sunday. Trough is being reinforced by short wave energy dropping into the mean trough position...one wave over Missouri and a second over Minnesota. Narrow strongly -EPO ridge (+3 sigma 500mb height anomalies) along the west coast and into Alaska has opened the floodgates for cold air to spill into the CONUS. Behind the Dakotas short wave trough is a significant push of cold air (sub -20C 850mb temperatures across Saskatchewan/Manitoba/northern Ontario). At the surface west- east oriented surface trough/old baroclinic zone lies across Upper Michigan east into southern Quebec...bubble of high pressure (1016mb) north of Lake Superior...and an Alberta Clipper associated with the Minnesota short wave over southern Manitoba/North Dakota with a 1040+mb Arctic high lurking over northern Alberta.

No changes expected to the large scale pattern in sight with the North American anchor trough holding firm...with sub-510dam 500mb heights Tuesday will be near the record minimum for the date in the APX/SSM RAOB climatology. A cold pattern for sure with some waxing and waning of the magnitude over the coming week but trends still support another cold surge for the end of the week. Upstream clipper low is expected to weaken later today as surface trough over Upper Michigan consolidates into a surface low this evening over southern Lake Superior (wonder how much of that is diabatically driven...which is more of a nerdy deep dive into this system). Tightening pressure gradient between this low and the Arctic high dropping into the Plains will ramp the winds up across the upper Lakes later tonight/Monday. This will also drag sub-500dam thicknesses into Michigan/Wisconsin (sub-492dam across Upper Michigan which is a solid signal for single digit daytime highs with Lake Superior the only thing preventing highs below zero). Weak lee side low passing in the vicinity for Wednesday will give something of a reprieve from the bitter cold as winds shift to the south. But another push of cold air in the wake of this system for Thursday...and a reinforcing shot for Friday/Saturday with trends still suggesting that the coldest air of this event arrives next weekend with probabilities >40% of sub-zero highs Friday and Saturday across Upper Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Evolving high impact winter weather event tonight through Tuesday morning: Widespread mostly light snow already ongoing this afternoon...a combination of QG forcing/weak static stability from roughly 800-600mb along with some lake convection. Water vapor imagery shows upstream vorticity center spinning across Minnesota and spreading snow into western portions of Wisconsin/Upper Michigan. This should reach the forecast area toward evening...but in the meantime expect a better focus for southwest flow Lake Michigan convection into Mackinac county...perhaps into western portions of Emmet and Chippewa counties as well. There also may be the tail end of an east-west oriented band over northern Lake Huron/Georgian Bay that clips Drummond Island...not that we'll see it on radar but there is an enhanced response ongoing to low level frontogenesis along old baroclinic zone. Synoptic snowfall overspreads the area this evening...best snowfall rates again expected along the Lake Michigan shoreline and especially focused across Mackinac county and around to areas adjacent to Little Traverse Bay. Evolution of the snowfall Monday morning looks pretty interesting...as winds shift from west/southwest to northwest and gradient tightens up. Think there may be an enhanced band along the wind shift that swings across the forecast area like a snow squall through the first half of Monday... followed by more traditional northwest flow lake convection with some dominant bands embedded within. Impressive thermodynamic environment to start with inversion heights at or above 600mb... though shifting wind directions may prevent bands from focusing on any one area (such as starting around Grand Traverse Bay and lifting toward areas between Grand Traverse and Little Traverse Bay). This wind shift will also get Lake Superior convection into eastern Upper as the day progresses...and low level lake induced frontogenesis as cold air spills around the east side of Lake Superior may get a dominant band going into eastern Upper by late in the day and continues Monday night (and likely evolving into a three lake band that stretches across Lake Huron and into Lake Ontario. Over time this band may get pushed farther west as cold air drainage flow/ density current out of Ontario will likely try to push across the St. Mary's River as low level flow weakens (which would tank temperatures close to - 10F if that scenario comes to pass). Off Lake Michigan 850mb temperatures dropping below -24C is going to start to impact snowflake growth processes...with the DGZ non-existent within the cloud layer and loss of the longer effective fetch off Lake Superior.

So after all that...36 hour snowfall totals from tonight through Monday night are 6-10+ inches across the current Winter Storm Warning counties...will add Missaukee county to the warning as this should be a good set up for them. Will leave Crawford/Roscommon in the advisory for now though have concerns about Roscommon getting in on the act as well. Will also leave Cheboygan county alone though concerned that with increasing ice cover west of the Straits this will have a negative impact on snowfall potential there. As for eastern Upper definitely have concerns for at least western Chippewa county that they could get a good dumping of snow Monday night. Did sound out MQT about the idea of upgrading their advisory to a warning but held off (this may be done by the overnight shift).

And not to forget: winds should start to pick up west of the US-131 corridor after 0900Z Monday...and ramp up through the morning. Strongest gusts expected along the northwest Lower shoreline where gusts over 40mph expected...generally 25 to 35mph across the remainder of northern Lower and 20 to 30mph across eastern Upper. Significant blowing and drifting snow is expected particularly west of the M-33. Temperatures expected to fall through the teens and into the single digits with the onset of stronger cold advection.

More widespread snow Wednesday with a bit of a reprieve from the cold: Another short wave trough swings through the region for the midweek period...bringing with it another widespread mostly light snow event though will need to watch potential for southwest flow enhancement off Lake Michigan. Southerly boundary layer flow and warm advection expected to bring temperatures back into the 20s for a brief period Wednesday afternoon.

Coldest air of this outbreak may arrive Friday/Saturday: 850mb temperatures below -30C expected to reach the Lake Superior basin by Friday morning...and forecast 1000-500mb thicknesses below 486dam would be just a brutal air mass to deal with next week. As mentioned above increasing probabilities for below zero high temperatures (40% Friday across eastern Upper...60% Saturday across eastern Upper and 40+% higher terrain of northern Lower). Already have some statewide messaging on this but this would be by far the coldest air of the season. Of course it will snow with this as well but with those 850mb temperatures a lot of it will fall as pixie dust.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

SW flow lake effect snow to expand overnight; potential uptick around 6-9z with a subtle wind shift from SSW to SW/W. Expect prevailing MVFR with periods of IFR esp at PLN/MBL/TVC. More potent cold front swings south after 9z, likely tracking to TVC around 12- 15z and out of Saginaw Bay around/after 18z. Winds strengthen dramatically, 15-25kts gusting 30-40kts, and shift to NW/NNW thru 21z before tapering down to 10-20kts from WNW/W. Expect gustiest period between 12-18z, a couple hours either side of the front. NW/NNW flow lake effect bands beef up behind front, with IFR to LIFR under worst bands, tho BLSN to reduce visbys at times at most sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-020>022- 025>027-031>033-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ017-028-034. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ086-087-095. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for LSZ322.