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KEY MESSAGES

-Ongoing showers continue today with additional localized rainfall amounts of an inch or more.

-Cool and quiet weather returns this Sunday. Highs remain in the 70s across Northern Michigan.

-Overall quiet conditions persist next week with limited shower and storm chances beyond mid week next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Split midlevel flow over the CONUS continues to periodically punt waves into the Great Lakes Region this weekend. Surface low pressure positioned over central Illinois this morning will continue to spread moisture across the northwoods with subsequent showers and storms through this evening. Clipper system finally begins to move downstream Sunday morning as subsidence aloft begins to dry out the low levels. Conditions remain dry with breezy post frontal winds this Sunday and climatologically cool temperatures.

Typical Northern Michigan weather persists the remainder of the forecast period as the downstream 500mb ridging pattern currently over the central/southwestern U.S. expanding northward through the midwest. Subsequent high pressure and benign weather will persist through the midweek. The next chance of precipitation returns on Wednesday as large-scale closed low pressure over Hudson Bay extends a troughing regime into the high plains and pivots waves of energy across the Great Lakes Region through the end of the week. Long- range ensembles depict just enough moisture and instability to create showers and storms, but the likelihood for widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather remains low.

Forecast Details:

Today and Sunday: Ongoing showers will persist today through this evening as surface low pressure moves to the Northeastern U.S. Some higher instability will create scattered embedded convection this afternoon. Combined with PWATs over an inch and a half, this will maintain the risk for localized heavy downpours, particularly in Eastern Upper and some parts of Northern Lower. Subsidence will build aloft this Sunday and begin to dry out profiles across the CWA. Breezy post-frontal winds and temperatures in the 70s will create conditions feel like early fall rather than early

Monday and Tuesday: Midlevel ridging over the central U.S. begins to build across the midwest, returning typical Northern Michigan summer conditions. Mostly sunny skies will persist with light winds as temperatures gradually recover back to climatologically normal. Subsidence aloft will support surface high pressure and no precipitation this Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday Outlook: Midlevel troughing currently off the Gulf of Alaska will progress eastward and develop large scale low pressure over Hudson Bay. Embedded height waves will pivot across the midwest the remainder of the forecast period resulting in periods of showers and storms beyond the midweek. The best chance of rain remains on Wednesday as a disheveled cold front sweeps across the midwest. Current models depict moisture being cut off from the south and relatively weak forcing leading to only light QPF amounts and scattered storms. Low chances of rain remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday as afternoon heating and instability will likely create convection across the region, but again, no heavy rainfall or strong storms are expected at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and a few storms will increasingly prevail tonight into Saturday. Vsbys and especially cigs will tend to lower with time. MVFR develops everywhere overnight into Saturday, and IFR should develop at CIU. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.