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KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread mixed precip chances and strong east winds Thursday. Increasing confidence in a tenth of an inch of ice over parts of norther lower and eastern upper. Temperatures warm to above freezing during the day, curbing ice impacts.

- Scattered shower and storm activity late Thursday, with slight threats for damaging wind gusts and marginal threats for hail

- Precipitation chances quickly return Saturday, with colder air and brief snow chances Sunday

- Another system likely returning widespread snow chances Monday into Tuesday as below normal temperatures persist

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current water vapor satellite depicts an upper level trough starting to move onshore near southern CA this morning. A baroclinic leaf is seen downstream, which is spilling around 0.5" to 0.6" PWATs over the Great Basin. At the same time, a Bermuda high over the Atlantic is resulting in southerly winds all along the Gulf states. This is transporting lower level gulf moisture northward, up to the Ohio river valley. Near northern MI, surface observations depict northwest winds which are gradually brining in cooler and drier air from CAN. Areas of fog are being reported around northern lower, as a shallow layer of moisture hangs near the surface ahead of the drier air moving in. A 1030 mb surface high over Ontario CAN will deepen tonight as it slowly moves towards the southern most end of the Hudson Bay, becoming 1037mb at its center. This drier and cooler airmass will result in cooler temperatures today, and overnight temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Zooming back out, today the upper trough will deepen as it moves over the central and southern Rockies. As it ejects into the plains, the CO lee side low strengthens. A strong southwesterly LLJ will be present over the central Mississippi River and into the Ohio River valley. This, as well as existing Pacific moisture over the central plains, will result in deep moisture transport towards the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into early Thursday. This warmer and more moist airmass will overrun the colder and drier airmass near the surface (around 2-3 kft and below). A very dry layer in the lower levels will still be in place over parts of northern MI. Some jet dynamics will be over northern MI during this time, and could result in some precipitation of mid to upper level moisture into the 850mb dry layer.. This would lead to the 0C 850 mb line bouncing around a little as wetbulbs remain below freezing. A few snow flakes can't be ruled over parts of northern lower and eastern upper out with this logic, with light sleet for areas south. All in all, as precipitation chances begin early Thursday it should remain very light as it has to overcome this drier airmass (which gets drier the more one travels east).

As the upper trough becomes more negatively tilted later Thursday morning, better jet forcing moves over the state and brings some more robust precipitation with it. By this time, the surface low and surface warm front remain over MO/IA and IL/IN respectively. With gradients tightening, east winds will strengthen and produce gusts up to 25 to 35 mph. With this reinforcement of cooler air, most short term guidance is showing eastern upper and areas of along and north of M-32 remaining below freezing at the surface during this wave of more robust precipitation. Freezing rain will likely be seen over these areas late Thursday morning and lingering through the early afternoon. Ice amounts continue to be tricky to nail down due to a decent spread in QPF. However, amounts over a quarter of an inch of flat ice is unlikely and chances remain very localized. The one exception being north of the bridge. If surface temperatures can remain below freezing through the evening hours, and steady precipitation continues, then ice accumulations could exceed a quarter of an inch. Most areas south of the bridge will likely see up to a tenth of an inch of ice, before temperatures warm.

The upper trough will reach the western Great Lakes region Thursday evening, which will move the surface low and warm front across northern MI. There is increasing confidence that temperatures near the surface will warm to above freezing by Thursday late afternoon south of the bridge. North of the bridge, temperatures will warm to above freezing later Thursday evening. By the arrival of warmer temperatures, precip will have already become lighter and intermittent. However, some elevated instabilty will be brought with the surface cyclone as it tracks north. Around 300 to 500 j/kg of MUCAPE and ideal shear (40kts+ of sfc-3km) will lead to thunder chances Thursday evening and night. Models soundings suggest a slightly drier profile aloft, which would result in an environment where a couple more organized storms could produce larger hail stones. With upwards of +1" of PWATs still around, heavy rain and lots of smaller hail will be possible with the majority of stronger storms. The pronounced warm nose will make it difficult for damaging winds to reach the surface, however stronger storms that form over the SW or central part of the L.P. could move into parts of the southern CWA and bring damaging wind gusts with them. These areas along and south of M-55 do not have such a pronounced warm nose as locations to the north.

The system exits early Friday morning, leading to a brief break. Early Saturday morning, a deep closed upper low over the western CONUS will reach the northern plains. The next round of widespread precipitation will reach northern MI Saturday morning, as the closed low spreads warm sector precip over the state. Depending on the onset of precip, some mixed precipitation is possible while temperature at the surface remain below freezing Saturday morning. However, temperatures will likely warm to above freezing during the day. This stronger system will continue into CAN late Saturday, allowing colder air to move in behind it. Widespread light to moderate snow will be seen early Sunday, with colder temperatures settling in for early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue into tonight. Winds turn east this evening/tonight and increase around 06z Thursday through the issuance period with gusts reaching 30 to 35 knots by Thursday afternoon...LLWS will be a possibility around the end of the period. Precipitation will spread south to north Thursday morning with temperatures hovering around freezing, producing mixed precip with freezing rain/ sleet. Temperatures will increase through the day and reach above freezing by the afternoon, changing remaining scattered showers to rain. A few strong to severe storm will be possible thursday evening into Thursday night. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR/ LIFR by the end of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-023-024. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ020-025-026-032>036-041-042. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ021-022-027>030-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for LHZ345. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for LMZ341-342. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for LSZ321.