textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and near seasonable weather expected to continue through mid- week at least.

- Turning cooler with some light shower potential for the end of the week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Another rather spectacular late October day across the Northwoods, with stout upper level ridging bringing more dry and seasonably mild conditions. Much like yesterday, seeing some lake enhanced shallow cumulus rotate back west off northern Lake Huron. As mentioned...while by no means warm, current temperatures in the lower to middle 50s are actually a few degrees above specific normal values for the end of October.

Deep layer high pressure will continue to remain in firm control of our weather through the mid-week period as they essentially become stationary across northeast NOAM. This high will direct rather vigorous shortwave trough well off to our south, keeping all the active weather down in that direction.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Minimal...with main focus on temperature trends.

Details:

Essentially more of the same tonight and Tuesday, with dry weather and clear to partly cloudy skies continuing. Pressure gradient does increase, likely negating full decoupling tonight...allowing temperatures to stay a bit more elevated than previous nights. Highs tomorrow back in the lower to middle 50s. Somewhat gusty east winds will make if feel a touch cooler Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

High pressure...part of psuedo rex-block with closed off low pressure across the Tennessee Valley...maintains control of our weather through the middle of the week. Blocking looks to break down thereafter as southern wave pivots northeast across the eastern Conus. Additional shortwave energy dives southeast out of Canada, and when combined with that ejecting southern wave, sets in motion the development of troughing across the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing late week and weekend shower potential.

Details:

Latest trends continue to support dry weather prevailing at least through the start of Thursday. Dprog/Dt's of nearly all available deterministic and ensemble guidance is for a further east displacement to that ejecting southern wave...keeping primary axis of deepest moisture advection to our southeast and east. This does raise concern that our current forecast may be a touch too aggressive introducing shower potential Thursday into Thursday night. Time will tell of course, but wouldn't be surprised at all if a reduction to rain chances will be needed for this period. Arrival of that additional energy and maturing cold air advection regime does set the stage for increasing shower chances Friday into the weekend...with focus for these showers in our traditional lake effect areas. Again, do have question of the guidance consensus blend featuring likely shower mention...even in those favored lake effect areas...as primary synoptic moisture contribution looks to now remain well to our east. Of more confidence is cooling temperatures, with highs Friday through the weekend likely not getting out of the 40s for most of the area. Of course, these are actually just about normal readings for the beginning stages of November.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

VFR. Some lake effect clouds could regenerate late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially near CIU/APN. Even this should be VFR (circa 4k ft). We'll have a bit more of a se breeze tonight and Tuesday, which will limit fog potential.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341.