textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat and humidity for those without adequate cooling today through at least Thursday.

- Strong thunderstorms possible tonight, then again mid to late week. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Well advertised 596-ish dam high pressure across the Southeast stretching up into the Oh Valley and Great Lakes region. There has been a couple rounds of convection on the northern periphery of this ridge, a theme to remain through mid to late week.

Attention turns to strong thunderstorm potential today (focusing tonight), with the potential for some storms this morning and isolated this afternoon, although low confidence as the best lift will be north of NWS Gaylord's area of responsibility. Another threat will potentially materialize later tonight, as a wave (convectively agitated or not) within the southwest flow aloft moves northeast. Consequently, portions of northern Michigan are in a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, focusing on the wind threat overnight. Given the moist and moderate to strongly unstable airmass, any discrete storms could produce hail, and heavy rain is also a threat. Low confidence in regards to storm coverage, in fact there is a scenario where morning convection does not materialize, but the environmental ingredients are there for strong storms and areas of heavy rain (moderate instability/shear and PWs 1.8" - 2.2"), especially later tonight when better forcing may arrive.

Soupy airmass will be in place today, with dewpoints in the mid 70s in most locations. Although convection/outflow this morning may retard daytime heating by a couple of hours, any sun will warm temperatures into the 90s and with the dewpoints in the 70s, and thus heat indices top out in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Speaking of the heat, the humid airmass, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, will remain through at least Thursday. While there is uncertainty each afternoon due to convective contamination, the heat stress will compound each day for certain areas with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s most areas. An Extreme Heat Warning was considered for northeast lower MI, and in fact, would be surprised if 105+ heat index criteria was not met across portions of northeast lower, but the semantics of the current headline made for an odd situation. This can certainly be upgraded in subsequent shift, but it really does not change our messaging; this heat will be tough on those without adequate cooling, individuals who work outside, and sensitive individuals/pets.

As high pressure drifts ever so slightly to the east mid to late week, southwest flow aloft remains over northern Michigan overtop a moist and unstable airmass. Additionally, robust upper low will dig to the south some, with additional short waves moving east at various times mid to late week across the Upper Midwest. Consequently, there will be additional rounds of thunderstorms, some strong to severe, Wednesday through Friday with areas of heavy rain. Friday looks particularly active, with the potential for more organized forcing and sufficient moisture/instability. The convectively agitated nature of this activity results in relatively low confidence overall, especially when it comes to timing, but additional severe storms and heavy rain are likely, especially during the overnight hours as mesoscale convective complexes try to push into northern MI. Still warm, but less humid and largely in the 80s this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 526 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Starting to see evidence of developing MVFR/IFR producing stratus this morning. Still expecting these low clouds to expand across most of the area just after sunrise. These low clouds should mix out through the morning, giving way to a growing cumulus field through the day. May see some showers and thunderstorms develop out of this cu field, especially later this afternoon into this evening. Uncertainty remains significant with regards to timing, organization, and intensity of these showers and storms. Any storms will be capable of heavy rain and brief gusty winds. Expect any showers and storms to begin to decay through the overnight. Southwest winds do become a bit gusty today, with winds becoming fairly light again tonight.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A few corridors of significant rainfall fell earlier Monday and resulted in areas of flash flooding, road washouts, and river rises. Areas hardest hit were from the Leelanau Peninsula east into portions of Antrim county, and then up across Emmett and Cheboygan county. The Jordan river has crested to ~6.6 ft, top 3 all time. Consequently, an area flood warning was issued along the river in Antrim and Charlevoix county. With additional thunderstorm chances within a very moist airmass, there was some pondering about a flood watch. Relative low predictability will preclude that consideration at this time, but if better agreement comes into play later this week then perhaps that could be discussed. Locally heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorms through the end of the week, and the risk for flooding.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-097>099. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ025-031. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345- 346.