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KEY MESSAGES

- Times of precipitation today and Thursday with gusty southwest winds this afternoon.

- Light wintry mix possible for eastern upper early Thursday morning which could resulting in slick roads during the morning commute.

- Colder temperatures Friday with snow chances early Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures early next week as an active pattern continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Currently satellite depicts an upper trough and few surface lows moving onshore near British Columbia CAN, which is beginning to break down/dampen the 590 dam upper ridge over the western CONUS. Just to the south, satellite derived PWATs show around a inch or more of Pacific moisture advecting inland around the upper high. Moisture is funneling over the northern Rockies and into the northern plains, where around 0.5 inch PWs are left (verified by 00Z RAOBs). The systems moving over BC will carry lower PV surfaces inland and over the CAN rockies. Not only will it continue to dampen the upper ridge for the next couple days (which will force the warmer temps over the western US eastward), it will also provide a pocket of mid/upper level energy which will eventually deepen into a shortwave which will move over the northern plains Thursday. Before that occurs, a zonal upper jet around the high will be forced south and east by the aforementioned BC features. South winds over the central plains at 850 mb will veer southwest/west this morning. This will advect the warmer airmass over the central and western CONUS towards the northern plains and western Great Lakes region. Colder CAN air will be in place to our north and east across the international border... setting up a baroclinic zone across the northern plains and into the Great Lakes. At the surface a stationary boundary will be in place right around the international border, stretching across the northern plains and into southern Ontario.

Due to some jet dynamics and isentropic ascent, precipitation on the northern side of the stationary front will aid in tightening gradients. A weak surface low will likely form over ND around mid morning today, and advect eastward under the upper jet. As the upper jet wiggles around today (due to forces mentioned above), dynamical forcing will not align with the surface low anymore. It will bring some light snow chances to eastern upper today, light rain chances for areas south of the bridge, and breezy south winds especially over the waters. Winds turn southwest this afternoon as stronger winds aloft move over head. Warmer 850 mb temps move overhead, however surface temperatures will warm as well.. resulting in a favorable vertical profile for some of those gusts to mix down. Breezy south winds will turn southwest midday with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph lingering through the afternoon.

Tonight, the upper trough (mentioned above) will start to take shape over southern Alberta CAN. At the surface, a cold front will start to trek down the MT front range and Dakotas. As the zonal upper jet focuses more over MN and Lk Superior, gradients above and below start to tighten under the pressure of the beginnings of a pattern transition. Ideal jet dynamics will generate more than enough lift for a broad area of light to moderate precipitation early Thursday morning over Lk Superior and the U.P.. The 0C 850 line will linger right around this area as well. Surface temperatures over eastern upper will likely have a chance to dip near or just below freezing in spots. With the potential for a weak and ill-defined warm nose over head, mixed precip is possible as light precipitation begins to reach eastern upper around sunrise. Times of light snow, sleet and freezing rain are possible Thursday morning but by the time the heavier precip moves over head surface temperatures will be too warm and most will fall as rain or a rain/snow mix. With the potential for times of freezing rain, local accumulations of ice up to a hundredth or so cannot be totally ruled out over eastern upper, which could result in spots of slick roads for the Thursday morning commute. By mid to late morning the main precip shield will reach eastern upper. Some soundings depict more ideal vertical profiles for moderate snow with little to no warm nose and surface temperatures in the mid 30s, which would result in mostly snow at the surface (maybe some rain mixing in at times as the column will be saturated). Thursday afternoon, the precipitation will sag south over of the bridge brining mostly rain chances. Some of the higher hills could see times of snow (due to the profiles mentioned above). Precipitation will exit later Thursday evening, with any lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow. A colder airmass will move in for Friday, keeping high temperatures near or below freezing for most of northern MI. The upper trough will move over MI late Friday into Saturday, brining chances for light snow. Accumulations at this time favor remaining minimal due to lack of moisture, however some local spots could see some lake enhancements.

Chances for precipitation continue into next week, with intial hints of temperatures warming above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Mid/high clouds have overspread the area, as warmer/more moist air tries to return northward. Some virga is occurring, and as the morning proceeds some -SN or -RA could make it to surface. The best chance for that is at CIU, in the form of snow. VFR conditions will still prevail into most of tonight. Late in the overnight, lower cigs will develop ahead of our next chance for precip, and MVFR cigs are progged late at PLN.

Se winds today become sw tonight. These winds will be breezy at times, especially APN/TVC/MBL. TVC/MBL have LLWS for part of tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ345-346.