textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold tonight, adding additional strain to those without power.

- Watching potential for some lake enhancement later tonight/Wednesday morning as weak system swings overhead.

- Turning milder to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Definite improvement out there this afternoon as deep low pressure is now well to our northeast (good riddance) and moving further in that direction. Cold post-sytem environment still kicking off a lake response, although rapid drying through the vertical and complete loss of any synoptic contribution is definitely taking their collective toll. Unfortunately for those without power and still doing clean-up operations, it's definitely a cold one, with current temperatures only in the teens and 20s...a good 15 or more degrees below specific normal values for the middle of March. Gusty northwest winds are subsiding as pressure gradient relaxes, but still seeing wind chill values in the single digits...both above and below zero.

Large scale flow regime continues to relax in the coming days as upstream ridging ever so slowly builds east the remainder of this week into the weekend. Remnant northwest flow aloft along ridge/trough interface will remain overhead, with weak embedded shortwave troughs kicking off mostly light precipitation chances at various times the next several days. Loss of Arctic air will bring moderating temperatures as well...at least some good news for all those affected by this past storm.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing potential for some lake enhancement later tonight/Wednesday morning. Secondary focus on temperature trends and additional light precipitation chances the remainder of the period.

Details:

Rather uneventful (but still very cold) evening...with just some lingering very light and disorganized lake snows rotating off Lake Michigan in slowly backing low level wind regime. Weak wave and broad area of attendant weak isentropic upglide/moisture convergence arrive later tonight into Wednesday...likely kicking off some pockets of very light snow in the process. Looking at snow accumulations by later Wednesday well under an inch for most. However, over-lake environment remains primed for some moisture contribution. Boundary layer flow becomes south-southwest, targeting far western Mackinac County and perhaps right along the Lake Michigan coast of Benzie and Manistee Counties for best lake enhancement potential toward Wednesday morning. Could see a few inches of snow in Western Mackinac County by the end of Wednesday, with an inch or so along the Lake Michigan coast of northern lower. Winds do become quite gusty on Wednesday...likely resulting in some blowing and drifting snow as well.

More weak southeast diving waves set to bring some additional light rain and snow chances at times on through the weekend, but definitely not seeing anything of real significance. Far bigger story for clean-up operations will be the gradual warming temperatures, with highs both Thursday and Friday ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s...really helping to get ice off those trees in our hardest hit areas. Turning a bit cooler heading into the weekend and early next week, but still looking at highs above freezing each afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Mainly VFR tonight, MVFR cigs become common Wednesday. As high pressure shifts east, southerly winds will develop and increase later tonight into Wednesday. This will generate snow showers near Lake MI by very late tonight into Wednesday, along with lowering (MVFR) clouds The chance for snow showers Wednesday is near CIU and MBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.