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KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected across northern Michigan away from the immediate lakeshores tonight.

- Cool temperatures continue through Saturday. After a brief warmup, below-average temperatures, precip chances, and possible frost/freeze concerns return for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper low centered south of James Bay and associated expansive troughing will continue to churn in place through Saturday, eventually lifting northeast into Sunday. Ridging and associated surface high pressure will temporarily work in Saturday night/Sunday morning before additional troughing punches overhead Sunday night. Continued troughing appears it will bring an unsettled pattern across the region through much of next week.

Forecast Details: The main forecast concern continues to be expected sub-freezing temperatures across a wide swath of northern Michigan tonight. As has been the case the past two nights, cloud cover will make for a tricky low temperature forecast. Current expectation is that daytime cloud cover with shower activity will dissipate to a degree this evening and early tonight. Forecast sounding profiles display increasing low-level moisture across much of northwest lower with time tonight, leading to higher confidence in some redevelopment of cloud cover with help from northwest flow across the lakes. All in all, current belief is that low temperatures will end up very similar to last night for most areas -- widespread low 30s away from the immediate lakeshores, upper 20s or possibly colder for low-lying interior areas (especially if clouds clear out), and mid 30s near the immediate lakeshores. With a majority of the area in lakeshore counties forecast to dip near/below freezing tonight, all northern lower counties have been included in the Freeze Warning tonight.

Otherwise, ongoing showers across parts of northern Michigan will move east later this evening. As noted by the previous forecaster, a few showers cannot be entirely ruled out again Saturday, but expectation is that the dry low-level airmass working in will provide a hostile enough environment that most areas stay dry.

Frost/freeze potential returns to parts of northern Michigan again Saturday night, although the window for these conditions appears narrow. Temperatures near freezing may be confined to an area along and east of I-75 late Saturday evening/early Saturday night before temperatures actually begin to warm into Sunday morning with southwest low-level flow advecting a more mild airmass into the Northwoods.

After a brief warm up into early this week with highs on Monday reaching into the 60s, we look to plunge back into well below average temps accompanied by precip chances through the remainder of next week. Highs in the 40s and low 50s are expected most days with another string of potential frost/freeze conditions overnight -- which would be around 10 degrees cooler than average for the start of May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Lingering SHRASN this evening will taper into the overnight hours. VFR CIGs to hold through the night with light and variable winds. VFR set to carry through Saturday with W to NW winds AOB 15kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ098. MARINE...None.