textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow continues tonight into Saturday...

- Snow showers linger into Sunday

- Watching a couple wintry systems for the middle/end of next week...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

140kt upper jet stretches from the Desert SW/SoCal to the OH Valley. Most noteworthy shortwave trough axes in the flow located over Alberta into ID/NV...Four Corners Region...Chicago to OH (in left exit region of aforementioned jet, with best height falls of -16 dm/12hrs)...and swirly still over western Ontario, as southern portion of a Rex block across the eastern Canadian Prairies. Troughing also digging across eastern Canada. Bulk of the deep moisture is largely south of the upper jet, but some deeper moisture wrapping into the Upper Great Lakes (APX 12z sounding with 0.58in pwat, above the 90th percentile for this time of year) amid weaker stability in the mid-levels...atop strong inversion below approx 925mb. At 12z...cold air wrapping into the OH Valley in the wake of an occluded front stretching from 989mb surface low over central Lake MI to southern WV; cold front wraps back into southern TX and up into NM around the perimeter of a 1018mb surface high. 1028mb surface high over Hudson Bay to our north, keeping easterly flow in play...and another clipper over the Intermountain West attm.

Upper low to continue to track eastward out of the area tonight...leaving us in a bit of a nebulous area aloft between ridging to our north...and next system crossing the central Plains. Some snow expected Saturday as surface troughing sets up across the region, then troughing settles in for the remainder of the weekend, particularly by Sunday...as upstream energy digs across the OH Valley. Looking for some improvements, at least for a time, for early next week...as troughing gets ejected to the east coast; however...with top of upstream ridge floating our way...will need to keep an eye on potential clippers in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe...and perhaps again late in the week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Snow Tonight into Saturday...Deformation axis sets up tonight from departing low pressure over Lake Huron...stretching back up to a PV maxima over Manitoba...and will expect this to slowly drift southward through the day Saturday...though certainly possible it could stall in the vicinity of Grand Traverse Bay/NW Lower for much of the day/night...perhaps getting as far north as Gaylord or even the US-23 corridor between Mackinaw City and Alpena. Anticipate a narrow band of deep moisture collocated with this feature, suggesting we will be looking at potential for a narrow band of potentially heavier snowfall across the area. Looks like there could be some weak stability aloft with this...and some lift in the DGZ...which could lead to some better snowfall rates again tomorrow. Snow-to-liquid ratios should eventually come up (compared to today) as drier air works in...though anomalous moisture should still allow for some better snowfall totals tonight into Saturday. Currently think 2-4 inches is a good starting point, with 6in or greater beneath the heavier band(s) tonight into Saturday. While guidance is pointing more strongly toward this snow band setting up closer to Traverse City/Maple City and off toward Cadillac...think there is still a bit of wiggle room on just where the better deformation band snows end up...noting there is just now some deformation precip developing on the WI side of Lake MI as of 21z. Not impossible the deformation axis ends up stalling over the M-32/M-68 corridor tonight...where it is currently dumping sloppy wet snow under fgen bands as of 19z...so think this will need to be monitored overnight.

While some snow showers will continue into Sunday...think the greater threat attm will be in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe...with a clipper system slipping in from the west, followed by a second niblet on the heels of its baroclinic zone for the latter portion of the week. Some warm advection influences are possible as early as Tuesday ahead of this...and will have to see if the baroclinic zone will be able to get far enough north to bring more influences from that next system into our area for late week. Given that we should be on the cold side of things going into this (with near to slightly below normal temps for this weekend into early next week)...current suspicion is that we up here in the Northwoods should end up more on the wintry side of things.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 608 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Widespread IFR to lower end MVFR producing low clouds and periods of snow expected to continue through the entirety of this taf cycle. Most persistent snows expected across northern lower taf locations, with additional snow accumulations of an inch or two likely. Gusty northwest winds will continue at KMBL, with lighter winds elsewhere.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...None.