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KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue into this evening. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats. Severe storms are not expected.

- Cool, breezy, and scattered rain showers Sunday.

- Dry weather expected to start next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing draped across much of the eastern half of the continent will continue to amplify this weekend as a strong jet digs across the northern Great Plains/Midwest today, rounding the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic tonight and Sunday. Strong divergence aloft will provide continued support for the surface cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes as it works east this weekend. Ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains/Canadian Plains will help build surface high pressure into the Great Lakes on the backside of this system through the first half of the week. Troughing then looks to move back into the region by the end of the work week.

Forecast Details:

A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across northeast lower this afternoon into this evening. Cannot completely rule out some stray showers across other areas, but the bulk of showers/storms will remain east of I-75 into the early evening hours coinciding with the weak cold front passage. As has been the case so far today, the primary focus with this activity will be heavy downpours and lightning -- with reports of over 2" of rainfall in localized areas so far. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not anticipated given weak shear in place.

As a cooler, relatively moist airmass overspreads the area with northwest low-level flow behind the front, additional isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible beginning late this evening and continuing at times through Sunday. In fact, our first true taste of fall may be Sunday. Northwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph at times through the day with noticeably cooler temperatures during the day. Little daytime warming is anticipated given northwest flow and cloud cover/shower activity -- likely keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s through the afternoon. Right in line with the fall feel will be the potential for some waterspouts over the Great Lakes nearshore waters this weekend given the cool, moist air passing over the relatively warmer lake surface.

Looking into the work week, rain chances will come to an end by Monday with dry weather in store through the first half of the week as high pressure builds in. Cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected on Monday before warming back into the upper 70s and low 80s through the rest of the week. Rain chances look to return on Wednesday, but may hold off until late Wednesday as some of the latest guidance has trended slower on arrival time in most recent runs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas of lower cigs out there this morning, most widespread in northern lower MI (mainly MVFR, in spots IFR). These cigs will tend to gradually improve thru early afternoon. These are also some showers out there, especially north of TVC. The best chance for heavier SHRA and TSRA will be this afternoon/early evening at APN. Precip coverage will decrease somewhat tonight. Winds become nw and somewhat breezy this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.