textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry through Tuesday morning

- Shower/storm chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday night. Some locally heavy rain is possible

- Seasonably warm weather and periodic chances for showers and storms returns for the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Longwave upper level ridging continues to build slowly east into the western Great Lakes early this afternoon, with its surface reflection running just a bit ahead of it...currently centered right across lower Michigan. Result is plenty of sunshine across the Northwoods, with all that sun helping boost temperatures to about early August specific normal values in the 70s to lower 80s. Expanding the regional view shows shortwave troughing and attendant weak surface low/troughing pivoting steadily east across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains...kicking off some scattered convection in the process across that area.

Overall pattern remains somewhat a progressive one heading through the period, with current overhead high pressure gradually sliding off to the east...allowing upstream wave to pivot into and across our area during the middle of the week. Still appears northern Michigan becomes centered within broad low amplitude troughing regime between west Atlantic and southwest Conus ridge axes to end the week on into the start of the weekend. Large scale regime may attempt to relax a bit thereafter, allowing more zonal central NOAM upper level flow to develop into early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends through the period and addressing periodic rain chances...especially those centered on the mid-week period.

Details:

While slowly sliding off to the east, expect high pressure to remain in control of our weather tonight into at least the first half of Tuesday. Another somewhat chilly night tonight, with light winds and clear skies driving a good nocturnal temperature response. Evening will start a bit warmer, so expect readings to stay just a bit above those observed last night. Still...would expect another night of widespread 50s, with some of our traditional ice box locations in the Au Sable River Valley perhaps making a run at the upper 40s. These readings will probably be just cold enough to entice the development of some "field" fog and fog near inland bodies of water, but definitely shouldn't be a big deal at all.

Dry conditions continue through much of Tuesday. By late in the day may see some broken convection make a run at eastern upper Michigan/northern Lake Michigan right along and a bit ahead of that next wave/weak cold front. Definitely not expecting anything significant given only a few hundred joules/kg of most unstable cape and with better shear profiles detached to the west. Moisture convergence axis will continue to work slowly east into the area Tuesday night. Despite unfavorable timing, increasing right entrance region upper jet support and continued deep layer moisture advection should help gradually expand shower coverage with time. Again, lack of instabilty should keep any embedded thunderstorms below severe limits. May see some pockets of heavier rain totals with rather saturated conditions through the vertical (precipitable water values exceed 1.75 inches) and expected relatively slow southeast progression of showers/storms. This idea continues into Wednesday, with better chances for rain centering toward Saginaw Bay and points southwest with time. Do think exit of rain will be a bit faster than currently advertised by some guidance Wednesday night as corridor of upper jet support exits and congealed cold pools push axis of enhanced low level convergence into southern Michigan. Much of the area does remain under marginal risk wording for excessive rain Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Belief is any heavy rain will be localized at best, with the much better heavy rain potential remaining well off to our southwest. A bit warm for Tuesday, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to middle 80s. A tad cooler for Wednesday behind the passing front and with clouds/showers.

Not seeing anything real significant for the remainder of the period. Does look like a slow warming trend, with highs Friday through the weekend mostly in the 80s. Any passing waves may help kick off a few showers and storms at times, but again current trends support nothing of any real significance. Plenty of time to work all those details out in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions for much of the period, the exception being a little BR/FG. Best potential at KMBL with TEMPO group, although confidence not high. Otherwise, mainly SKC with light northwest to northeast winds this afternoon becoming variable tonight. Winds increase late morning on Tuesday, with VFR conditions through the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.