textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Extended period of mild temperatures beginning Friday and extending into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dry conditions are anticipated throughout the day today, although suppose a few stubborn flurries could, in theory, linger early this morning. None of that changes the increasingly hostile conditions through the day with subtle height rises aloft and more importantly, lowering inversion heights/instability/moisture. Thus, dry conditions will prevail today.

Heights continue to rise on Friday, marking the start of a mild stretch of weather across northern MI. That being said, quick moving short wave sandwiched in between the above normal heights across the Upper Midwest and a retrograding upper low across western portions of Quebec will either clip, or move just to the east of, northern Michigan. Current forecast has pretty low pops across eastern upper, but quick look at the ENS probs (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) for > 0.01" of precip on Friday suggests at least a chance for some wet snow showers, mainly across eastern upper. Should not be impactful but something to fine tune moving forward.

Another short wave will move in the vicinity of the Great Lakes region during the second half of the weekend, but this feature looks moisture starved and/or possibly displaced a little too far north for any modest precip. More robust energy looks to eject out of the Desert Southwest mid next week with the potential for widespread precipitation across northern Michigan. In fact, current ENS guidance has a low potential (~10-40%) for 0.5" of liquid or more during this time.

Despite a few minor perturbations within the flow, the overall theme this weekend into early next week will be for increasing heights aloft, low level wind fields with a more southerly component, and significant troughing across the west coast. Thus, mild temperatures are expected across northern Michigan with highs in the 30s and 40s Friday through at least early-mid next week.

River flood concerns due to ice jams on the table to some degree, especially if high temps rise into the 40s with ice jams/releases possible. In addition, if healthy rain falls on top of a ripe snow pack, river rises would be expected as well. Quick glance at the HEFS 10 Day River Level Probs does show at least some potential for rises across area rivers (prob due to the potential for rain on snow melt). Anyhow, just something to monitor going forward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Area of MVFR cigs/visbys to slip into TVC around 6z, could be IFR visbys at times till it exits. Otherwise, SHSN should largely shift back toward TVC/MBL into daybreak (could hang on more than expected at APN, though). Still non-zero chance -FZDZ could mix in, but think SN will prevail. Otherwise, expect SCT MVFR/VFR cigs thru much of Thursday...BKN MVFR at times between 15-21z with light SN/flurries possible...with quieter conditions after 0z. Next system could bring flurries back just after this taf period, esp for CIU. NW winds turn more NNW thru daybreak and remain 5-10kts or less...becoming light and vrb to W/SW toward 21-0z and beyond. Watching some potential for fog/low stratus to develop after 0z Fri.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.