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KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of light freezing rain/ drizzle today.

- High-impact winter storm late today into Monday, bringing gusty winds and accumulating snow.

- Wintry pattern continues across the Great Lakes through the remainder of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Return flow continues to strengthen early this morning as surface high pressure retreats east, allowing low level moisture to steadily deepen across northern MI. This increasing moisture, aided by an intensifying low level jet, will overspread the area through the morning hours. Forecast soundings support a saturated low level column beneath a lingering mid level dry layer and a developing warm nose aloft, a setup favorable for light freezing drizzle/rain. Temperatures will be slow to respond overnight and early this morning given extensive cloud cover and southerly flow, though readings should gradually rise as the day progresses. That said, surface temperatures look to hover near or just below freezing when precipitation begins, especially across parts of central and northeast Lower MI. This introduces the risk for light freezing drizzle early, which could lead to slick spots on untreated roadways. While ice accumulations should remain minimal, some localized travel issues are possible early on...Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for more details. Warming from south to north through the morning should transition any freezing precipitation to plain rain by late afternoon. Something to note, latest guidance is hinting at freezing rain sticking around a bit longer, especially across eastern upper and the tip of the Mitt. High temperatures will struggle to climb much beyond the 30s. Focus then shifts quickly to a rapidly strengthening storm system approaching from the west later tonight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Confidence continues to increase in a high-impact winter Storm impacting northern MI Sunday night into Monday as multiple mid- level disturbances phase across the Great Lakes beneath strong upper level jet support. This evolution favors rapid surface low deepening as the system lifts through the region, with guidance suggesting a very strong low tracking through the area by early Monday. While some uncertainty remains in exact track, the overall pattern looks to support a high-impact event.

Precipitation type will depend heavily on thermal profiles Sunday evening. Much of northern Lower is expected to continue as rain (with perhaps some freezing rain) before transitioning to snow overnight as strong cold air advection arrives. Across eastern Upper, colder surface temperatures combined with northeast flow looks like it could support a period of freezing rain or sleet early Sunday evening before a changeover to snow overnight. The transition from rain or mixed precipitation to snow is expected to progress from southwest to northeast as colder air deepens across the region.

By late Sunday night into Monday morning, a strengthening deformation zone and developing trowal are expected to pivot across the area, initially impacting eastern Upper before gradually shifting into northern Lower. Strong synoptic forcing combined with deep moisture and favorable snow growth conditions supports the thoughts for accumulating snow, especailly across northwest Lower and eastern Upper. Strong winds will also play a key factor in this event. A tightening surface pressure gradient and vigorous cold air advection will likely lead to gusty conditions Sunday night into Monday, with gusts 40+ mph and locally higher near the lakeshores... Please see the latest High Wind Watch. Blowing and drifting snow will likely result in hazardous to even dangerous travel conditions, with near blizzard/ blizzard conditions possible at times. Power outages may also be possible. Please see the latest Winter Storm Warning/ Advisories for more details.

Beyond the system, the larger scale pattern seems to set up in a more wintry look. Northwest flow aloft becomes established, opening the door for periodic systems and lake enhanced snow showers through mid-next week with colder temperatures persisting as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

A mix of IFR to LIFR cigs is already present, with LIFR becoming more common in some southerly areas. For the overnight, areas of DZ/FZDZ will develop. Widespread LIFR conditions are expected for Sunday, with low cigs, rain/drizzle, and at CIU a wintry mix including -FZRA.

E to se-erly breezes continue thru the forecast.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-099. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>018-098. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ020>022-025>027-031-032-099. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ023- 024-028-033. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for MIZ041-042. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for LHZ345>349. Storm Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323- 342-344>346. Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ341. Gale Warning from 5 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ322. Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for LSZ322. Storm Warning from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321.