textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/storms diminish this afternoon with dry weather expected this evening.

- Rain/thunder chances return later tonight and again Thursday. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

- Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing progressing over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada will continue to slide east tonight and Thursday. The associated surface cyclone centered near James Bay will gradually weaken with time as the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked and favorable advections for support are choked off. Meanwhile, ridging will quickly amplify across the middle of the country late this week and hold through the holiday weekend, building surface high pressure across Hudson Bay/Ontario that will attempt to nose down into the Great Lakes by Saturday/Sunday. Ridging may finally begin to fold overtop of the region heading into the middle of next week as troughing works across the west from the Pacific coast.

Forecast Details:

The ongoing line of showers with a few embedded storms will keep tracking east across northern lower Michigan this afternoon. Given that outflow from this morning's round of storms pushed well south of the CWA into lower Michigan and the airmass will only be able to partially recover ahead of this, strong storms appear unlikely at this time. Relatively speaking, the best chance for any strong storm will come across our far southeast CWA near Saginaw Bay. Most likely scenario is that showers and a few storms track through and strongest activity is confined south of the area, primarily in the thumb of lower Michigan this afternoon. After this line passes, dry weather is expected for most areas with some clearing cloud cover through the remainder of the day.

The brief break in rain chances may come to an end later tonight. Additional showers and a few storms may form along the warm front across mid Michigan, perhaps working into the M-55 corridor into early Thursday morning. Mainly dry conditions are expected for most of the area through the morning hours until another round of showers and storms could move into northern lower by the afternoon. Best chances for showers/storms will come along and south of M-72. While some instability and shear aloft could support a few strong storms, current confidence is that convective mode will limit this potential and severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

Looking ahead, rain chances diminish as a whole as time goes on Friday and this weekend. Subsidence will build surface high pressure increasingly into the region, keeping dry weather is place for the most part -- especially late this weekend. Seasonable temperatures are also anticipated with highs in the 70s and low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s for most areas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 746 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Some fog expected at all sites but TVC overnight. CIU is the most likely to drop to IFR/LIFR. Some additional showers/storms could move in from WI overnight, best chance for that is at MBL (though the associated cloud cover would reduce fog chances there). VFR from mid-morning Thursday onward. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.