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KEY MESSAGES

-Quick shot of snow tracks across Northern Michigan today with minor accumulations of roughly 1-3" expected.

-Mild weather returns midweek this week with highs above freezing Tuesday-Thursday along with periodic light precipitation chances.

-Widespread moderate rainfall expected this Thursday followed by backside lake effect snowfall Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Current 700mb heights depict a weak positively tilted trough digging across the Upper Great Lakes region this morning. Enough atmospheric moisture will produce precipitation and spread snowfall today before departing to the east this evening.

Forecast Details...

Today...Clipper system will be ongoing this morning as most areas will be receiving light snowfall through the morning hours. Intensity of snowfall with this system will remain pretty light as this set up does not have a favorable synoptic pattern. Between limited moisture being ingested into the system and weak baroclinicity in surface temperatures, snowfall amounts remain between a general half inch to 2 inches for most locations across the CWA. Hi rez guidance depicts an area of low level convergence zone with favorable fetch near Little Traverse Bay to produce a lake effect band developing this morning and deliver locally higher amounts to the Straits region. Highest amounts of around 4 inches will land across localized areas downwind of Little Traverse Bay, northern Emmet County, and eastern end of the U.P (such as Cedarville and possibly DeTour Village).

Tonight...Winds back to the WNW breifly for a 3-5 hour window on the backside of this clipper late this afternoon through the evening hours delivering light amounts of lake effect snow to the typical snowbelts. While only flurries remain possible after 00Z Tuesday across northern lower, light amounts of measurable snow will continue mainly across Chippewa County of a half inch or less before midnight. Otherwise the majority of Northern Michigan remains quiet as winds weaken overnight and lows drop to the mid teens.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Ongoing longwave midlevel troughing pattern finally comes to an end and builds a more zonal pattern across the northern half of the CONUS. Pacific air mass will influence the Great Lakes region resulting in more mild temperatures. Warm air advection from the southwest will push day time highs into the upper 30s this Tuesday and Wednesday. At the same time... embedded height disturbances with a vorticity maxima centered over Manitoba will extend a stalled boundary across northern Superior. Only slight chances of a rogue shower or two are expected while the majority of the CWA remains mostly cloudy.

Thursday and Friday... Deep midlevel closed low pressure develops lee of the Rockies and undergoes efficient cyclogenesis as it makes its way to the upper plains region this Thursday. Warm 40 degree temperatures are expected this Thursday as the Great Lakes region gets locked into the systems warm sector. Showers spread ahead of the approaching cold front, followed by gusty northwest winds and a quick lake effect snow response Thursday night into Friday. Still too early to give QPF, but highest probabilities remain around a quarter inch.

Saturday and Sunday Outlook...Zonal flow this weekend with embedded disturbances will support overall quiet weather to the Great Lakes region with intermediate chances of precip. Long range ensembles hint at a shortwave tracking across the southern Canadian territories and returning low end snowfall chances around the Saturday timeframe to the Northwoods. At this time, nothing supports widespread or heavy snow, but continued near normal temperatures with periodic snow chances is likely as we head into the holiday season.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 521 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

A quick moving area of snow expected this morning with primary VSBY reductions expected at CIU/PLN, and to a lesser extent APN/TVC. Primarily IFR/MVFR conditions anticipated, but potential for LIFR VSBYs exist at CIU/PLN. While the bulk of snow exits midday, scattered snow showers linger into the afternoon. Gusty southwest winds expected to accompany this system before diminishing this afternoon and becoming light/variable tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for LHZ345. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for LMZ323-341-342-344-345. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.