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KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures this morning with interior locations droping to -20F or lower.

- Light snow over parts of northern lower and eastern upper today through this evening

- Warming trend will lead to high temperatures back in the 20s starting Sunday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Current satellite shows mostly clear skies over large parts of northern lower and eastern upper MI this morning. Some light snow showers are drifting off the coast of northern Lk MI near Benzie Co as remnants of a few meso-lows that formed earlier near the interior of the lake and meandered around. Times of low visibilities under these very localized snow showers are possible right along the cost, with chances for this continuing through the morning as the land breeze strengthens. Surface obs are depicting -25F at KGOV, with -15F to -5F readings over other surrounding sites. Although winds have become mostly light, temperatures will continue to drop this morning. Please see the latest cold weather advisory for more details.

As upper ridging continue to move over the Hudson Bay today, north to northeast winds will force a weakening upper low to exit the state. Some continental moisture will be forced south and over the CWA today (passing the straights by midday). This added moisture (which isn't much) and the push south could lead to a meso-scale area of weak low pressure over southern Lk Superior moving south over Lk MI and continuing times of localized moderate to heavier snow near the coast of Lk MI from Leelanau and south. Light snow will likely reach inland for spots, possibly reaching into NE lower as some enhancements could hug the Lk Huron coast. However, there will be almost no synoptic scale dynamics to work with and 850mb temps will be on the rise shortly after the moisture arrives (warming to around -15F this afternoon and continuing up through the night). All of this points to any robust snow remaining localized today (which could even be off the coast). Most areas receiving light snow will see up to a few tenths of an inch. Localized +1-2" isn't out of the question right along the Lk MI coast, and the snow producing this could result in times of lower visibilities especially as temperatuers remain low (keeping the DGZ close to the surface).

As north winds are reinforced by this push, gusts of 10 to 20 mph could be seen over areas adjacent to the coast and higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Some spots could see times of blowing snow, and thus lower visibilities from this.

Tonight, light snow could linger in some of these localized spots along the coast (Leelanau and south). Although low level temperatures are on a warming trend, the snow pack we have and lingering near surface colder airmass will allow lows to dip below 0F again tonight for most interior and eastern upper locations. Temperatures should be capped at a few degrees below 0F tho, as elevated winds and cloud cover will not allow for ideal radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Upper ridging starts to build in Saturday, resulting in mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures warming into the high mid to high teens. This regime will continue into Sunday, with temperatures warming into the 20s for most spots.

Winds turn southwest Sunday evening/night as the next system passes to the north of MI. Widespread might to moderate warm sector snow will track over the state from west to east early Monday. Most ensembles keep snow amounts around an inch or two. Chances for lower snow accumulations increase if winds remain on the weaker side (resulting in the ice cover staying intact). Next larger system could impact the area near the end of the work week, returning accumulating snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly MVFR cigs MBL/TVC/APN, though VFR possible at times (especially TVC). A VFR/MVFR mix at PLN, while mostly VFR at CIU. MBL/TVC have the best chances for seeing -SHSN thru the TAF period. Light, mainly nw breezes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...None.