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KEY MESSAGES

- Very good shower chances late tonight into Thursday morning. A few t-storms possible late tonight.

- After tonight, relatively quiet and mild weather persists into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis: A rather flat southwest to northeast oriented flow regime is in place to start the forecast period. An impulse embedded within this flow will track mainly across the northern tier of states/southern Canada, which will drag a cold front through the Upper Great Lakes region later tonight into early Thursday.

Behind the above mentioned disturbance, heights generally build across much of eastern North America into early next week. A stronger, slow moving, potentially cutoff trof will approach the Great Lakes region after Monday, but model agreement in the details with this system is not very good right now. There is still plenty of time to get the details with this system ironed out.

Forecast Details: Very mild conditions for late October linger into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected along/ahead of the front after midnight tonight into early Thursday. The convection will be elevated with a southwesterly low-level jet as high as 50 kts. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly steep as well ahead of the front so some of the showers may be robust where they occur. The weakening of the nocturnal low-level jet should result in diminishing coverage/intensity of precipitation with eastward extent.

Not a whole lot of weather of note through the weekend in the wake of the front. Temperatures cool behind the front, although still a little warmer than normal, but warm again after Friday as upper-level heights rise and southerly low-level flow returns. Rain chances start to return Monday night as a stronger, but currently low confidence system approaches.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR expected till after 6z and more likely closer to 9-10z, but could see visby drops with any SHRA, which should develop after 4- 6z. TSRA possible after 5-7z thru around 10-12z, esp for TVC/MBL; have included in tafs attm though this may be too aggressive. Not impossible a few sites could get fog immediately after sundown (esp PLN/APN) before more clouds/winds move in. Prevailing winds from S 10-15kts overnight; LLWS expected with SW winds at or above 1500-2000ft increasing toward 40kts by 3-5z and 45-55kts by 4- 7z, lasting till front crosses the area around 11-14z. Could be some increased gustiness during the early morning (esp a few hours before/after the front and particularly for PLN/CIU). Winds turn to W to WNW behind front for remainder of TAF period with a period of IFR/MVFR cigs, esp for CIU and PLN.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.