textproduct: Gaylord

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A fairly energetic west/northwest upper flow across the Great Lakes with several embedded shortwave troughs. One trough with an associated surface cold front will swing through Tuesday, with shower/storm chances. After high pressure moves in for the second half of the week, additional troughing develops heading into the weekend with increasing precipitation chances.

Upstream shortwave trough and attendant surface front will approach the area Tuesday, increasing shower/storm chances. The best rain chances will likely come later in the afternoon into the evening, as embedded shortwave energy rides along the front Overall, this is not a very impressive feature with limited instability or effective shear. As previous shifts have mentioned, this system resembles our Sunday system, with scattered precipitation but nothing widespread (and some areas likely receiving little to no rainfall). Any precipitation ends during the first half of Tuesday night, as high pressure begins to build in from the northwest.

A potentially stronger shortwave will help to carve out a deeper trough across the Great Lakes as we head toward the weekend. This certainly looks like it has the potential to bring more widespread rain, although model consistency has been lacking with recent rain systems, so confidence is low in the details at this time. Temperatures near seasonal norms through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Current Cu field and northwest flow will subside this evening followed by patchy BR development near KCIU, KPLN, and KMBL. Mainly VFR is expected this Tuesday, but -SHRA and -TSRA and subsequent MVFR will likely be observed after 18Z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.