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KEY MESSAGES

- Times of light snow showers through sunset with accumulations remaining under an inch.

- Next system returns accumulating snow chances to eastern upper and parts of northern lower just in time for the Tuesday morning commute.

- Precipitation chances linger through midweek with near to slightly below normal temperatures north, and above normal warmth south. - Colder temperatures return for the end of the work week into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Classic ridge-west pseudo-troughy east pattern in the upper and mid levels set to remain stubborn as a mule through the forecast period. Noted is the continuity of that pesky progressive WNW to NW flow we seem to not be able to shed, which keeps a pronounced thermal gradient over the Great Lakes, allowing for weak disturbances to zip overhead... a trend that will be dominant throughout the forecast. Result will be periods of nuisance mixed / wintry precipitation at various times through the end of the week. Hints of more aggressive warmth trying to battle into the region next week as ridging tries to fold over the region, flipping the stagnant script we have all become accustomed to over the last week.

Details:

At the surface, a chonker of a 1031mb surface high pressure over the Corn Belt into the upper Midwest is attempting to bring about subsidence, and thus has led to some breaks in clouds this afternoon. Issue being, we are on the colder side of this surface high, so we have been graced with chilly NNW flow, which has stunted temps into the 20s and 30s, and that's about the best we will muster today. In addition, cold temps aloft (850mb temps pushing -15C, inversion height roughly 750mb) and just enough saturation beneath the inversion will drive some continuity of snow showers across the region. Minor accums up to a half an inch of additional snowfall are in order for some, while most see a dusting through sunset as diurnal instability flexes and promotes continued snow shower development across the region. As the surface high zips overhead, subsidence should eliminate lingering snow shower potential heading into tonight... at least at first.

One of those aforementioned waves riding the zonal flow regime will pass through / just north of Lake Superior later tonight into Tuesday. This wave will be a warm advection wing... almost a carbon copy of this past Saturday. Steadier snows should favor eastern upper. For northern lower, a brief thump of snow (probably with pretty big snowflakes reducing visibility) zips across the region (largely confined to M-72 and north) over the course of 1-3 hours as a warm front attempts to force its way through. This will be followed by wintry mix showers later in the morning through the afternoon as the "warmer" air forces its way into the region. The difference between Tuesday morning and this past Saturday is that by Tuesday morning, antecedent surface temperatures will be in the teens and 20s, so this may take a little time to melt away in the morning before that warmer air builds by afternoon. As far as snow amounts go, generally most areas probably wind up with 2" or less, but with potential for an overlap with the morning commute, this could be annoyingly impactful for such minor snow accums by northern Michigan standards. Nonetheless, with that warmer air building and height rises commencing, expecting all areas to warm above freezing, mid-upper 30s in eastern upper south through the M-32 corridor in northern lower... low-to-mid 40s south through M-55... with an outside chance of those far southern areas to push 50 degrees by the afternoon.

The marginal winter weather masterclass carries on through Wednesday as warmer air desperately tries to force its way into the region, and it will with some success in a few places, particularly south. As such, anticipating mostly light rain / drizzle south of the Bridge Wednesday, with some form of rain /snow mix in eastern upper. Expecting minimal accumulation (1" or less) in eastern upper at this juncture. Highs in the mid-upper 30s in the eastern Yoop again, warming the farther south one goes... well into the 40s across far northern lower, and even mid 50s possible M-72 and south both Wednesday and Thursday... perhaps even approaching 60 (!!!) in Gladwin and Arenac counties Thursday. The problem then becomes that the thermal gradient will be maximized right over us by Thursday afternoon, which sets the stage for a little beefier of a wave to pass through the region... bringing a rain to snow transition... with the most snow likely in eastern upper. This system drags another cold front through which will suppress warmth south... and in a testament to this pattern's stubborn nature... putting us right back to where we are today for Friday... chilly, snow showers, and highs in the 20s and 30s... a touch warmer Saturday... before we warm up some going into next week, presumably with some more wintry shortwave passages.

THAT BEING SAID... there is some gurgling of a pattern change as we progress through next week. Some guidance is latching onto the idea that the warmups will have a little more fight to them as we get into April, so while we will still have to contend with climatologically chilly airmasses at times... there are signs of Spring trying to show itself, but with the up-and-down nature of temps continuing. I'd anticipate snowpack to be somewhat slow to melt back as we head into April, which for those who have a bonafide glacier of a snowpack (**cough cough** eastern upper into far northern lower), is good news in its own way... remember that only a few years ago a rapid meltoff in the Yoop caused some serious "blue sky flooding"... where so much water was stored in the snowpack that it led to serious issues with flooding, and even washed out roads... to the point a disaster declaration resulted. For those wanting to avoid that, a slower meltoff of the estimated 5 to even 10+ (!!!) inches of snow- water-equivalent stored in that snowpack is needed. We shall see... but the big melt may be approaching and need to be addressed in due time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Current -SHSN and breezy conditions diminish this evening with VFR building at all TAF sites tonight. Additional-SHSN track across Northern Michigan early Tuesday morning, causing a brief period of MVFR CIG's and VSBY's at KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN. KTVC and KMBL will remain VFR through the entirety of the forecast period, with NW winds turning WSW by Tuesday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345- 346. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321- 322.