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KEY MESSAGES

- Clipper system brings increasing snow/wintry mix chances to northern Michigan late Monday into early Tuesday.

- Occasional lake effect snow chances linger through midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level shortwave ridging crosses northern MI this afternoon into Monday morning. Sfc high pressure centered just to our east early this afternoon will continue to depart downstream tonight through Monday. All of this in advance of incoming shortwave and attendant surface low pressure -- likely to bring a return of wintry weather to much of northern Michigan as early as late Monday afternoon, but more so Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather over the next 24 hours or so with mostly clear skies this afternoon/ evening giving way to an uptick in cloud cover later tonight into Monday morning. Low temps tonight generally ranging from the single digits below zero in the typically colder/interior spots to the the single digits above zero across much of northern MI. Southerly return flow ramps up later tonight and especially Monday in advance of aforementioned low pressure set to cross through Ontario later Monday-Tuesday. Potential impacts from this system locally discussed in more detail below. High temperatures Monday largely in the 20s in the area-wide with some lower 30s possible near the Lake Michgian shoreline of far northwest lower.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Late Monday - Tuesday: Mid-level wave and associated surface reflection alluded to above are expected to pass through Ontario later Monday into Tuesday -- likely producing fairly widespread snow and/or mixed precipitation across northern Michigan as early as later Monday afternoon, but more so Monday night into early Tuesday. Best forcing likely to be situated across the northern half to one-third of the forecast area into Ontario -- coinciding with the area most likely to remain all snow during this time frame. A wintry mix or snow/sleet/freezing rain look possible across at least portions of northern lower as a warm nose aloft folds into the area. Latest probabilistic guidance support the highest snow accumulation across the Straits into the eastern U.P. with lower probabilities for meaningful snow accumulation that farther south you go toward M-72/M-55. However, those areas of northern lower most likely to see impacts from a potential wintry mix, including freezing rain, with at least a glaze of ice possible (at this point, most likely near and south of M-32). Lots of refinement to come over the next 24-36 hours, but will start to message this time frame a little harder in our hazardous weather products/graphics.

Lingering lake effect likely in spots Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night, perhaps into Wednesday. However, upstream high pressure should be encroaching on the area mid-late week bringing a diminishing trend to what snow shower activity may linger. The envelope of solutions widens next weekend with uncertainty in regards to sensible weather riddling this portion of the forecast period. Fairly decent agreement that ridging builds across the nation's midsection late in the work week (with moderating temperatures locally) in advance of energy ejecting out of the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region. However, little confidence in how that energy manifests next weekend with solutions ranging from a suppressed storm track well to our south with a quiet and seasonably mild weekend on tap locally -- to a more amplified solution with low pressure rolling through the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes with potentially impactful wintry weather possible across portions of the state. Certainly a time frame worth monitoring moving forward.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR thru Monday morning. Quiet wx for most of the TAF period, though a system will start to impact the region by late Monday. Clouds will increase and lower thru the day, with MVFR cigs expected at CIU by late in the day. Conditions will worsen a bit further beyond this TAF period, as -SN and perhaps -FZRA breaks out in some spots.

Light winds tonight, southerly winds get a touch breezy on Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.