textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Several inches of lake-enhanced snow expected tonight along the Lake Michigan collar counties of northwest lower Michigan...as well as for southeast sections of eastern upper Michigan.

- Next wave delivering more lake enhanced snow and cold temperatures arrives Wednesday through Thursday night.

- Weather remains relatively active thereafter, with more chances for snow showers at various times right through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Fast paced northern stream flow regime continues to dominate Great Lakes weather early this afternoon...with overhead mid level ridging already showing signs of succumbing to next quickly approaching shortwave trough currently cutting across the upper Mississippi Valley. Subsidence and drying with that passing ridging has largely ended the more organized lake snow threat (for now), with just some lingering very light snow showers/flurries rotating off northern sections of Lake Michigan. Otherwise, a dry and fairly uneventful day, with current temperatures mostly in the 20s.

Upstream wave and attendant weak surface trough expected to work steadily east, crossing our area later tonight. This wave will help drum up a rather healthy lake enhanced snow response for a few select areas tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main focus centers on lake enhanced snow evolution, amounts, and attendant headline considerations tonight.

Details:

Kinda a classic southwest flow lake enhanced snow response expected to unfold this evening as fast moving shortwave trough/attendant surface trough helps reinvigorate ongoing convection across northern Lake Michigan. Surge of deeper synoptic moisture/seeder feeder processes, enhanced corridor of low level convergence, and respectable convective cloud depth to H7 should help organize a band of snow along the Lake Michigan collar counties of northwest lower Michigan (including parts of Cheboygan County)...with that band likely extending along the M-134 corridor of southern Mackinac and Chippewa Counties in eastern Upper Michigan. Strong signal that max and intense omega will be pegged solidly within the dendritic growth region... easily supporting snowfall rates approaching/exceeding (perhaps significantly so) an inch per hour at times within this band by later this evening into the early overnight. Emmett and Cheboygan Counties appear especially under the gun...with continued signal of enhanced low level convergence... especially so along and north of M-68 and along and west of I-75. Wouldn't be surprised to see snow totals approach and even exceed double digits in a relatively narrow corridor of Emmet and Cheboygan Counties...with several inches elsewhere in the Winter Weather Advisory areas. Focus for best snows again will be a relatively narrow one, with large sections of the headline areas likely falling well short of actual headline criteria snow amounts. Band should get punted a bit inland early Tuesday morning...losing both intensity and organization as it does so as low level convergence and connection to Lake Michigan moisture contribution are both lost. Otherwise, shortwave itself will produce some much lighter snow showers elsewhere, with accumulations mostly under an inch.

Rapid drying and development of warm air advection should largely end any organized snow shower threat heading through Tuesday.

Lows tonight mostly in the teens to lower 20s, with highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Fast paced pattern set to continue through the duration as northern stream flow regime continues to dominate the Great Lakes. Various waves set to cross the area, each bringing renewed lake snow concerns and reinforcing shots of colder air into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through the period.

Details:

No rest for the wary, with next shortwave trough expected to race across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Again, conditions look rather respectable for a decent pre-frontal southwest flow lake- enhanced snow response into the shoreline areas of northwest lower Michigan...as well as sections of eastern upper Michigan. Duration will be a short one for best synoptic contribution, but could easily see several inches of accumulation in these areas. Lighter snows expected elsewhere with the wave passage. Post wave response is one of rapid drying and subsidence in gusty northwest wind regime... especially across northern Lake Michigan. Moisture remains a bit more robust across Lake Superior, supporting a bit more organized and intense lake effect snow into the eastern upper snowbelts Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Still expecting snow showers to rotate into northwest lower Michigan, but as of now it appears any accumulations with the lake effect portion of this event will remain minimal. Perhaps biggest story will be the shot of some modified Arctic air that will sweep across the region with this wave. Current trends support highs Thursday perhaps not breaking 20 degrees across interior areas...with lows Thursday night in the single digits and teens. Of course, somewhat gusty winds will make it feel several degrees colder yet, with wind chill readings likely in the single digits.

After a brief break Thursday night into early Friday, next in the series of shortwave troughs looks to arrive later Friday into Friday night. And, much like its predecessors, should again drum up a decent southwest flow lake enhanced snow response late Friday into Friday evening, with more pure northwest flow lake effect behind it into Saturday. Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal, continuing at least some lake snow threat right into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Sw flow lake enhancement will increase this evening, bringing at least some snow to all sites but perhaps APN (VFR). PLN will see the worst impacts, with +SN expected for several hour with LIFR conditions. MBL/TVC will be IFR at times, while CIU will be MVFR to VFR. Conditions improve very late tonight into Tuesday. S to sw breezes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ017-088- 096-097-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ020-021- 025-031. MARINE...None.