textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow tonight, heaviest in the typical WNW flow snowbelt areas...especially across the EUP, where accumulating snow in excess of 8 inches is possible.

- Cold and unsettled weather continues into the weekend, with potential for a slight warming trend next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 505 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Northwest flow across the central US/Midwest this afternoon...with strong troughing across the eastern half of the continent (sub-500dm upper trough over Quebec) and ridge axis building across the western US as a niblet of PV lifts through California. Elongated PV maxima stretches generally W-E across Ontario to our north...attendant to much drier air (though there is actually slightly better moisture rotating southward off Hudson Bay behind it). Subtle PV maxima zipping NW-SE through WI this afternoon, spreading a bit more synoptic moisture into the region and adding a boost to ongoing lake effect snow as winds back a little more westerly.

Zippy PV maxima will exit stage right through the evening...as the elongated PV max to our north drifts southward across Lake Superior with persistence of colder air, and potentially another subtle PV niblet slipping through the flow to boost things overnight tonight (around 9z). Expect prevailing winds to shift back to a little more WNW this evening across Lake Superior and the EUP to keep a lake band going near Whitefish Point/Bay into the vicinity of the Soo.

Primary question for us tonight is whether that lake band drifts into Soo, MI or not. Think the additional PV niblet overnight (around 9z) will be something of an aid in persisting WNW flow and keep the idea in play for the Soo. The bigger concern appears to be potential for drainage flow to develop overnight off Ontario, which would enhance a corridor of NNW-SSE convergence over Whitefish Bay through the night. Not sure yet how far westward it will march (perhaps Brimley to Kinross by 12z?)...but with flow just upstream a little better, have concerns it will end up stalling out somewhere over central Chippewa county. Think SLRs could be a little higher, perhaps closer to 20-to-1 or so, with potential to maximize lift in a saturated DGZ...though part of the thermal profile is above the DGZ suggesting smaller flakes...and if winds remain a little breezier, it could bust up flakes and further decrease visibilities.

Think W/WNW flow bands will remain fairly organized across NW Lower tonight as well, with guidance soundings suggesting omega should be pegged in the DGZ...and think a few fluffy inches will be possible where better banding persists tonight. Addition of that PV maxima dropping in overnight should help keep things a bit more enhanced as well.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 505 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Friday...Generally expect rising heights to overall taper things off. However, think the lake nuisance will continue across the EUP into Friday morning with a continued threat for fluffier flakes that could drop some additional accumulations across the EUP. Going into Friday night...with high pressure trying to build into the area (though lake aggregate trough will be in play), think whatever lake effect is leftover will end up being somewhat nebulous to nail down attm...focusing wherever better convergence ends up (such as land breeze/offshore bands...perhaps additional drainage flow convergence bands for the EUP...).

Saturday...Wave of energy moves in with a bit more synoptic moisture again. Think it could end up overall rather similar to today...with flow potentially westerly to WNW-ly again. Will again have to keep an eye on thermal profiles, as we could be in for another isothermal layer in the DGZ...and with potentially a slightly warmer air mass compared to today...think there may be a better shot at DGZ action across the area.

Sunday-Thursday...High pressure tries to hang on overhead Sunday...but warm advection knocking on our doorstep by the end of the day with potential for some nebulous low pressure in the Upper Midwest to keep things a bit unsettled early next week...though we may warm enough to shut off the lake machine for a bit, even as early as Sunday night/Monday, perhaps. Better signals for a wave to track across the northern US in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe could bring us our next shot at more organized winter weather. Will need to keep an eye on how much warm advection occurs...as this could bring p-type concerns into the foray again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Somewhat variable conditions out there tonight, with lake effect clouds/snow thanks to cold air in place. Expect APN to stay VFR. All other TAF sites will see mix of VFR and MVFR due to cigs and at times -SHSN.

Brisk w to wnw winds continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for MIZ021-022- 027-028. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ086. Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EST Friday for MIZ087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.