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KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread accumulating snow tonight into early Sunday

- A period of lake effect snow and gusty winds later Sunday and Sunday night.

- Lake enhanced snow possible in southwest flow areas Monday night into Tuesday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 156 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

A vertically stacked low pressure area will move across central/southern Michigan over the next 24 hours. Warm conveyor belt processes with rapidly increasing isentropic ascent on the north side of the low pressure area will produce widespread snow across northern Michigan. Although initially fighting some mid level dry air, we should saturate later this afternoon and evening as snow develops from southwest to northeast across the area. The best forcing for most areas occurs from mid evening through the overnight hours, diminishing late tonight into Sunday morning. The exception to this is along the Lake Huron coast from Alpena northward toward De Tour Village/Drummond Island, where increasing deep layer southeast flow and favorable H10-H8 low level convergence signals will enhance snowfall rates/amounts into Sunday morning. I have some concern whether we can achieve warning level snow amounts along the entire Lake Huron coast given the location of the most focused low level forcing. Overall, the current forecast has the storm evolution handled well and plan only some minor wording changes related to snow onset timing within our current headlines.

Deep synoptic moisture/forcing exit to the east by Sunday afternoon as we transition to lake effect snow. As the previous AFD mentioned, this lake effect event won't carry the same potential as what we just had through Thanksgiving, with a relatively short window of favorable parameters and shifting low level winds. That window appears to be from Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night, with inversion heights of 6-8k and moisture extending briefly through the DGZ. In addition, winds will be gusty on the backside of our departing low during this time, so any snow shower activity could blow around more with lower visibilities. A few inches of accumulation will be possible during this time in the NNW-WNW favored lake effect areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 156 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

The low level flow continues to back on Monday, with southwest winds and rather anemic moisture profiles, so only light lake effect expected. A weak northern stream wave will slide across Lake Superior during the afternoon, possibly bringing some lighter snows to parts of eastern upper - but only minor accumulations.

Deepening southwest flow and better moisture Monday night into Tuesday in response to a wave sliding by to our south, which may produce more accumulating lake enhanced snow, especially along the Lake Michigan coast through the Straits and parts of eastern upper.

The active winter pattern continues midweek as yet another northern stream wave brings snow back to the area, with lake effect snow potential for the end of the week. Temperatures remaining below normal throughout the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Widespread IFR into Sunday morning in -SN. Vsbys of 1-2SM will remain common. Some improvement occurs beginning by late Sunday morning, as widespread snow transitions to lake effect snow. Conditions become MVFR at most spots. But BLSN may develop as gusty n to nw winds develop.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ016-017- 020>023-025>029-031>034-086-087-095-097>099. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ018-024-030- 035-036-041-042-088-096. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.