textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and rain will begin tonight, healthy amounts across E UP.

- Showers remain at times Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

- Mild to warm through mid-week, some records may be challenged.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Large trough complex currently resides over the Front Range/High Plains with associated elongated, or soon to be elongating, sfc low pressure system across the Plains. Nice scoop of column moisture from this system being advected northward, quite anomalous for this time of year. As the trough complex moves eastward with time, this moisture goes with it, beginning tonight and remaining into mid week.

Sfc cyclone generally moves northeast with time tonight in response to the northern piece of energy within this troughing complex. Meanwhile, a secondary cyclone begins to take shape across the C Plains-ish area due to the main upper low's height falls. Given the track of the low pressure and subsequent upper divergence, northern Lake Michigan and adjacent eastern UP will see the best coverage and health of precipitation tonight. There is some potential for >0.5" of rainfall overnight, which will be relatively efficient rainfall given the anomalous moisture. As the main trough continues northeastward and secondary low pressure system follows a similar trajectory as the first, the forcing will remain, at least temporarily, best across the E UP with additional shower and rain chances. Instability profiles are extremely meager given the saturated profiles and lack of healthy dews at the sfc. While a brief convective nature to some of this activity cannot be ruled out, especially later tonight into Tuesday across the E UP, this will only produce locally higher rainfall totals. Nevertheless, through this period, tonight through Tuesday night, the E UP could see 0.5 to 1.0"+ of rainfall, which should be spread out enough to be beneficial (D2 drought currently in E UP). Generally, rainfall amounts taper the farther southeast one goes across northern lower MI due to lack of forcing. Could only see a tenth of two or less across much of northern lower MI. Breezy conditions are anticipated on Tuesday as well, especially near and west of I-75, and more particularly, the Lake Michigan shoreline.

As we head into Wednesday, cyclone and upper low mature over the Upper Midwest and slowly move east, and precipitation chances will continue and spread over much of northern lower MI and eastern upper MI through the day. Rainfall amounts are progged to be relatively light, despite the impressive pattern overall as the upper low moves over the area. Looks like we could almost be in no mans land to a degree over northern lower, where the best upper forcing does not marry with the low level lift, and thus the lack of true, widespread wetting rains. Instability profiles look meager at best with warm temps aloft as well. Nevertheless, showers are still expected across the area, moving west to east, within a moist environment, as the upper low migrates eastward. Any subtleties with a progged short wave rotating through the main upper low could change the precipitation footprint as well, so worth keeping an eye on in regards to rain chances. Throughout this entire time, temperatures will run well above average for early November, with widespread mid to upper 60s, to perhaps low 70s, for daytime highs both Tuesday and Wednesday.

As the parent upper low meanders to the east late week, another piece of energy dives into its backside and right over northern MI. So, despite the best moisture evacuating to the east Thursday and Friday, this reinvigorated energy will keep showers in the forecast late week. We watch another system for this weekend diving out of the northwest. Current forecast cools temps back down to seasonable, or slightly above.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR to IFR producing cigs expected to spread across the taf locations tonight into Tuesday, although do expect cigs to scatter out some at KAPN Tuesday afternoon. Showers will accompany these lower cigs, with the most widespread showers expected to impact KCIU...with some vis restrictions in heavier showers possible at KCIU as well. Lighter showers elsewhere, with showers scattering out some at northern lower taf locations on Tuesday. A low level jet will bring wind shear to much of the area tonight, ending on Tuesday. South to southeast winds, at times gusty on Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.