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KEY MESSAGES

- Some rain showers today, largely south of M-55, although somewhat uncertain.

- Cooler through the weekend with freeze concerns each night.

- Occasional rain showers, perhaps a few snow showers, Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Plenty energetic today across the broader Upper Midwest with upstream trough across MN moving southeast through the day, and another short wave quickly moving east across central and southern MI during the morning to midday hours. The short wave downstate, approaching wave upstream, sfc troughing extending from southeast to northwest, and diurnal heating will result in showers from WI southeast into central portions of MI. Best chance for our area will be generally south of M-55 through the day today, more specifically the southwest corner near Manistee and Cadillac. Although low to no impact with this activity today, the extent and magnitude of POPs is/was quite tricky with inherent uncertainty.

The upstream trough skips across northern MI this evening and tonight which will become an upper low and part of a larger troughing complex moving forward. Looks like low topped showers west of Lake Michigan develop during the afternoon hours, which may try and drift eastward with time into the evening. General thought is for that activity to both weaken and largely remain to our southwest, although there is a low chance light rain survives its trek across the lake and clips Manistee county and vicinity. All this to say, minimally impactful weather through the afternoon and much of tonight (excluding the temperatures) with just some nuisance light showers to incorporate in the POP forecast.

Tonight marks a several day stretch through the weekend with freeze concerns as temperatures dip below freezing. Consequently, sensitive vegetation and agricultural impacts are possible, especially the farther south you go in northern lower MI. Could have went with a freeze warning/watch/advisory as its pretty cut and dry for interior portions of northern MI, but the overall consensus was to wait until the day shift.

Aforementioned trough today turns into an upper low tonight into Thursday and remains stationed near or in the vicinity of northern MI. The associated cold pool aloft will anchor across northern MI on Thursday, with a few embedded pieces of energy rotating around the center of the upper low. Consequently, low to mid-ish (up to ~750- 700 mb) level lapse rates will steepen, with non-zero convective instability during the afternoon hours. Thus, low topped convective rain/snow showers will be possible, especially across northeast lower MI, despite the meager low level moisture which could limit coverage in theory. Would not be surprised to see isolated showers in a similar vein Friday afternoon due to the persistence in the upper level pattern and low level thermal structure.

Upper low continues to meander to our east through the weekend, likely centered across portions of Quebec. This generally locks in the cooler temperatures, especially during the first half of the weekend, with frost/freeze concerns Saturday night as temperatures are projected to fall below freezing once again. The exact evolution and placement of this upper low and upstream energy will determine how much of the weekend will remain dry. For now, the forecast calls for mainly dry conditions (outside of a light shower) through this weekend, with an increase in precipitation chances as early as later Sunday, but especially into next week.

The only way to describe the extended pattern beyond the weekend is perpetual troughing across Ontario, the Upper Midwest, and adjacent regions. Consequently, seasonably cool conditions will likely remain through at least the first full week of May across the Great Lakes. Daily variation is still expected, but the general troughing will likely keep the cool, and unsettled, weather locked in for a while. Given this pattern, it's no surprise ensemble guidance (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) 24 hour QPF chicklet plots show plenty of precipitation chances next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Lower clouds hanging on late this evening APN/CIU/PLN, mostly VFR. Cooler air continues to invade the area, and drying has been a little slowed/delayed. MVFR cigs may return late morning, before again improving to VFR. Decreasing winds tonight, and a nw/nnw breeze returning Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.