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KEY MESSAGES

-Snow and mixed precipitation spread today before departing this evening. Accumulating snow is expected mainly across eastern upper.

-Low pressure deepens across the Great Lakes region this weekend. Strong winds, mixed precipitation, and accumulating lake effect snow will return Sunday through Monday.

-Weather pattern remains active and cold through the reminder of the week with periods of snow through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 233 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Shortwave troughing centered over the Great Lakes region will support the continuation of mixed precipitation across the CWA. Strong low level jet advecting warm air into the 850mb level across northern lower will result in mixed precip while thermal profiles north of the bridge will continue snowfall through the afternoon hours into the early evening as troughing progresses southeast.

Forecast Details...

Today...Ongoing snowfall will continue to spread across the "Tip of the Mitt" and eastern upper while low level warm nosing will spread rain/freezing rain across northern lower. Surface temperatures in the upper 20s will allow ice growth of a glaze for the majority of northern lower. Model soundings depict deeper moisture saturation profiles with H8 tempers of 7-9 degrees above freezing, more favorable convective values, and more favorable frontogenesis to produce higher ice accumulations for the southwest parts of the CWA. Local amounts of up to a tenth of an inch is expected for areas south of Grand Traverse Bay and west of I-75 this afternoon.

The second part to this system that will remain primarily snowfall across the U.P will have a sharp cut off of accumulations right along the line of f-gen. Morning hours will have the highest snowfall rates associated with the strongest convention, then continue to taper off during the afternoon hours. Accumulation's remain the same compared to yesterday with a general inch across the majority of the "Tip of the Mitt", widespread 2-4" expected over north of M- 28 and localized areas of 6-7" near the Superior shoreline such as Whitefish point and the SOO where thermal profiles support higher snow ratios.

Tonight...A few lingering snow showers are expected across eastern upper tonight. Otherwise moisture moves downstream as surface low pressure progresses southeast. Light southeast flow will continue moderately warm temperatures overnight with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 233 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Saturday and Sunday...Conditions this Saturday remain mild and quiet. Light southerly flow will continue to advect warm air into the region with 850mb temperatures well above freezing. Diurnal heating processes will likely lead to temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and even 40s for the typically warmer parts of the CWA. At the same time, midlevel troughing currently over the west coast will continue to deepen and progress across the country. Surface level cyclogenesis develops lee of the rockies and positions itself over the plains region this Sunday. Temperatures remain warm enough on Sunday to remain rainfall as an embedded trough deepens this Sunday with a general tenth of so of QPF expected.

Monday and Tuesday...Latest guidance depicts the cold frontal boundary tracking across the region Sunday night into Monday, spreading widespread accumulating snow chances across the CWA. A general inch or two of snow is expected for the majority of the area while persistent northwest flow will deliver higher totals to the classic snowbelts. Highest probs of snowfall remain across the "Big 5" (Kalkaska, Antrim, Crawford, Charlevoix, and Otsego along with Grand Traverse counties) with medium to high (50-70%) probs of 4-6+ inches.

Wednesday and Thursday...Previously mentioned shortwave troughing will deepen into a longwave pattern positioned over the eastern half of Canada. Embedded shortwave troughs and height disturbances will pivot across the Great Lakes region through the remainder of the forecast period leading to light snowfall/flurries with periodic moments of more intense snowfall. Still to early to advertise accumulations next week, but snow total probs remain lower than this Monday/Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Welcome to the meteorological smorgasbord that is this morning's weather across northern Michigan! Low pressure zipping through the Great Lakes will lead to myriad precipitation types across the board this morning... with SN prevailing at CIU along with IFR conditions. PLN and APN will contend with SN and PL along with MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions with passing showers, along with bouts of FZDZ. TVC will contend with PL and FZRA and FZDZ this morning, with MVFR conditions largely prevailing. Perhaps some PL with some passing showers early this morning at MBL, but largely FZRA that trends to good ole fashioned RA as temps inch above 32. Largely MVFR to IFR conditions there as well. The wintry precip generally devolves sometime between 18z and 21z pending which TAF site one looks at. Activity should transition to BR, FG, and FZDZ with time, lasting through much of the remainder of the period. During this time, largely MVFR conditions are anticipated, but there will be periods of IFR to even LIFR conditions during the most persistent periods of FG.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.