textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain showers are expected briefly Friday morning for areas near and south of the M-72 corridor.

- Temperatures will climb this weekend into early next week, with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s in the typically warmer locations of Northern Lower Michigan.

-Multiple rounds of convective-driven showers will progress across the Midwest from Sunday through Wednesday, leading to an increased potential for heavy rain and flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave vorticity maxima that delivered overnight showers is currently positioned north of Lake Superior this morning. At the surface, a few lingering showers remain possible this morning as the attached frontal boundary sits over the Huron shoreline. However; dry atmospheric conditions building behind the cold front will continuously scour out moisture. While conditions remain dry today and tonight, this boundary will redevelop south of the CWA and tie into upstream low pressure over the Central Plains. Additional rain and snow showers will organize overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, with the axis of precipitation only affecting areas near and south of the M-72 corridor.

A 500mb ridge pattern will build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend, causing downstream heights to rise over the Midwest. H8 temps in the teens will allow surface temperatures to climb well above normal for mid-April with widespread highs in the 60s. Atmospheric pattern will become more robust and active at the beginning of next week as troughing deepens directly downstream of the aforementioned ridge. Embedded vorticity maxima's will send waves of energy across the Great Lakes Region at times from Sunday through the rest of the forecast period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Brief period of rain and snow showers (Thursday Night/Friday Morning): Aforementioned boundary redeveloping tonight will spread showers across the southern half of Northern Lower. Current dry air moving into the region will prevent precipitation spreading north of M-72, but with the organized baroclinic zone over southern Michigan and isentrophically-driven precipitation will provide the southernmost counties with a general quarter inch or less. Low level temperatures below freezing overnight will lead to light, low-ratio snowfall for localized areas east of I-75 and accumulations of a half inch or less. Any observed snowfall will melt shortly after 12Z Friday.

Warming temperatures this weekend (Thursday through Monday): Midlevel height rises over the next several days will push Canadian cP air mass influence north and allow warm air to advect into the Great Lakes region. Surface high temperatures will gradually climb well above normal for mid April as highs reaching the Upper 60s to low 70s by Monday. Any remaining snowpack across interior Northern Lower and eastern upper will likely melt off (or at least the majority of snow melting as eastern upper still has snow depths in the 20s).

Rounds of heavy rainfall (next week): First round of widespread showers are expected to return this Sunday as guidance depicts an embedded shortwave trough tracking across the central plains through the midwest. Latest model runs depict moderate midlevel lapse rates, building instability, and southerly low level moisture advection from the Gulf...indicating the potential for heavy, convective driven rainfall. Additional rounds of rain continue through the rest of the forecast period, including periodic heavy rain and flooding.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Currently VFR at most sites besides north of the bridge (KCIU). RA is currently exiting to the west this morning. As a FROPA tracks through the area today, SW winds will turn W and become 10 to 15kts with G20kts through 00z. VFR cigs and vis through 06z today (SKC after 18z for most terminals). A round of RA/SN will move in from the south after 06z, as lingering moisture near KCIU/KPLN will lead to chances for times of HZ/FG during this time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>349.