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KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation Tuesday?

- P-type concerns Thursday??

- Active and mild weekend and beyond...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Pattern shift in the works...as omega block over the Pacific retrogrades westward, leaving troughing in the north/central Pacific (compared to ridging last week). Downstream pattern over the US largely zonal to slightly troughy across the eastern US...upper trough swirling inland over northern CA with some Pacific moisture and southwest flow into SoCal resulting in rising heights over the Four Corners region into the foothills of the Rockies. PV swirly over KS driving low pressure over the Lower MS Valley with southwest flow ahead of this resulting in a good Gulf tap. Baroclinic zone stretches from this to eastward to SC and off the coast, trapping the remainder of the Gulf moisture over the southeast US for now. In the northern stream of the flow...largely WNW flow aloft from Alberta to NY State...with PV digging into central Manitoba, driving an occluded surface low there...and dragging a cold front across central Canada (850mb temps -20C and colder behind this). Here in the Great Lakes, we sit on the cusp of return flow behind 1036mb surface high moving eastward into the Lower Great Lakes and New England. Cold start to the morning with many areas starting out below zero (some well-below zero) this morning and some lingering land breeze convergence over Lake Michigan visible on satellite...with mid clouds drifting in overhead.

Pattern change remains the focus through the forecast period...with milder weather the most noteworthy item of interest attm...as upstream pattern buckles, allowing for strong southwesterly flow across the central US into the Midwest...and highs potentially reaching into the 50s or better across southern portions of the area by the end of the weekend; it could be more of a struggle for the Yoop to warm up (as usual). In the meantime, expect subtle ridging to take hold of the eastern US early week...with a subtle northern stream PV max zipping through Tuesday as upper low ejects from the western US. This latter feature becomes slowly stretched out over the central US for midweek...before additional troughing digs into the western US to move things along. We should start to see some influences of this feature by Thursday as it ejects northeastward...followed by strengthening southwesterly flow Friday night as an elongated trough axis stretches from central Canada to the Desert SW...leaving things largely mild and active for the end of the week into next weekend, though a lot of uncertainties left to unscramble as we go forward.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Precip Tuesday...Least confidence in precip across the southern half of the forecast area with a subtle niblet zipping across central/southern Lower for the first half of the day, as things should be a little less moist across the central part of the state...though some guidance is more aggressive with the idea of something getting in across the southern half of the area with some weak deformation. Otherwise...I have greater confidence in some precip developing across the EUP with a PV max slipping across the northern portion of the area...where better low-level moisture should be located with the southwesterly return flow today (and some potential melting of the snowpack(?)). Not expecting much in the way of totals...and some question if we remain all rain or a mix of rain and snow up there, as temps will be on the borderline...but think it will be rather dreary overall up there.

P-type concerns Thursday/Thursday night...PV maxima zipping into the OH Valley with something of a Gulf moisture tap signals precip, at the very least. High pressure across southern Canada north of developing surface low in the OH Valley sends up some flags in my head from a pattern recognition standpoint...as it is one of the typical freezing rain synoptic setups; breezy east winds would only aid in both accumulations and impacts if this idea comes to fruition. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the better warm air gets...and for now, think the risk area for p-type concerns would likely be the EUP/Straits region. Certainly worth keeping an eye on as we go forward, even if we only end up quelling anxieties instead of having to deal with said issues (this is preferred).

Active Weather Friday and Beyond...Expecting trough axis to stretch from central Canada into the Desert SW by the latter portion of the week, leaving a favorable setup for pumping Gulf moisture up through the MS Valley into the Midwest/Eastern US. Pattern also favors upward motion across the central/eastern US somewhere, and these two things combined will need to be monitored at least for hydro purposes...as we should melt at least some of the snowpack up here (our office currently has 16 inches on the ground with almost 5 inches of liquid stored up in the snowpack) this week into late weekend. Uncertainties attm are largely focused in how well in phase the northern and southern stream troughs are for the end of the week... If northern stream troughing ends up more progressive, would look for a quick-hitting clipper-type system followed by cooler high pressure for the weekend before next system tracks in... whereas a more in-phase trough could open the door for a prolonged period of lift and anomalous moisture for late week into the weekend, certainly bringing those hydro concerns to the forefront (along with perhaps some thunder concerns as it could get warmer, too).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 511 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue. Current mid level cloud deck will exit east early this evening, leaving behind mostly clear skies into the early overnight. High clouds increase again late, with more mid level clouds anticipated for Tuesday. Winds become light this evening, remaining light through Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.