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KEY MESSAGES

- Mild through Sunday, turning cooler Monday - Tuesday.

- Occasional rain chances return later tonight - Sunday, and at times over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified pattern continues across NOAM with several upper waves noted upstream -- in particular one across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, one over the desert southwest, and a third off the coast of British Columbia/Pac NW. Upper ridging currently overhead locally will break down with time late in the weekend into the start of next week as that northernmost wave treks across northern Ontario/Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. Second wave over the southwest will make progress into the north-central CONUS Tuesday. The third wave not arriving until late week, likely being absorbed into more broad troughing, eventually expected to sag across the nation's midsection and provide our best chance at rain locally.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather through at least late tonight as upper ridging dominates aloft and we remain under the influence of surface high pressure centered over the Northeast. This upper pattern begins to break down late tonight into Sunday as vertically stacked low pressure treks by well to our north. This will drag an elongated cold front near northern MI late tonight/Sunday morning and eventually across the area Sunday night. Forcing/moisture with this feature locally are lacking, to say the least, but low chances for showers do enter the forecast across parts of the CWA as early as Sunday morning with those chances lingering in spots through Sunday evening. High temperatures Sunday largely in the 60s area-wide, with the low 70s possible in downsloping areas of northeast lower. Post-frontal cooler temperatures progged for Monday and Tuesday with highs back in the upper 40s far north and through the 50s over northern lower -- certainly closer to late October normals.

Shower chances Tuesday looking likely to stay primarily off to our west with that secondary wave driving into the northern plains. Next shower threat locally looking to hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday. Doesn't look like a complete washout, but certainly features higher precip chances than we've seen in the last 7-10+ days.

Looking toward Halloween weekend, previously progged cool down now looking pretty transient overall. Low-level thermal trough sags in briefly Thursday night - Friday before quickly retreating back to the north. Above normal temperatures anticipated for Halloween day, with latest trends supporting low-mid 60s over northern lower and a touch cooler north of the bridge. Rain chances may become more frequent next weekend as well, but lots of spatial/temporal uncertainty at this point.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR will continue this afternoon with SKC and light winds from the SSW. Some patchy BR development overnight remains possible at KAPN with temporary reductions in visibility, but all other sites are expected to remain P6SM. A frontal boundary sweeps across northern Michigan this Sunday, supporting VCSH at all TAF sites and CIGs lowering to MVFR at KCIU shortly after 18Z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ342.