textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday.

- Heat and humidity build next week with occasional thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A more active pattern will remain in place through Saturday as multiple waves of energy continue to track through the Great Lakes. Today (especially later this afternoon into tonight) will feature the best chances for widespread rainfall across northern Michigan as deeper moisture overspreads the region and a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms work west to east through the day. Timing still appears to favor areas near and east of I-75 during the afternoon and evening hours, though confidence in the exact evolution of rainfall remains somewhat tempered by guidance differences regarding the placement and strength of the forcing. Regardless, much of northern Michigan looks to receive at least some scattered showers, with the highest coverage and greatest rainfall totals favoring areas south of M-72, where WPC has a Marginal Risk (at least a 5% chance) of excessive rainfall. PWAT values continue to be advertised above an inch with dewpoints still reaching the 60s, supporting scattered periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall (mainly favoring this afternon/ evening into tonight, with scattered showers through the day trying to "break" through a lot of dry air set in place).

Shower chances will continue into tonight as additional energy approaches from the west. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms is then expected Saturday as a shortwave crosses the region. Coverage should gradually diminish from northeast to southeast later Saturday into Saturday night as drier air begins filtering back into the region.

Conditions quiet down considerably from Sunday into early next week as upper ridging and surface high pressure build across the Great Lakes. This will support a return to mainly dry weather along with a warming trend, with temperatures climbing well into the 80s and perhaps 90s by early next week. While most locations should remain dry through at least Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge may gradually shift east with time, allowing moisture and thunderstorm chances to begin creeping back into the forecast by mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 648 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected most of the day save for some MVFR visibilities in heavier showers. Increasing low level moisture expected to result in MVFR ceilings toward late afternoon/evening at all terminals...as well as an increased threat for convection this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.