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KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week.

- Widespread rain expected Thursday night/early Friday.

- Accumulating snow potential returns this weekend.

- A bit cooler with perhaps more snow chances next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Kinda unusual to end the first week of January with no Arctic modified air to be found across the Conus. Well, that is indeed the case this afternoon as a complete north retreat of northern stream flow has locked all the real cold air across the tundra regions of Canada. Despite plenty of lingering clouds across northern Michigan, simple breadth of a Pacific dominated airmass has resulted in temperatures running several degrees above normal, with current readings ranging through the 30s. Airmass will only continue to warm with time as deep layer flow becomes southwest...tapping into some exceptionally mild air across the southern Plains.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Fog trends tonight, with concerns then centering on just how warm we get and late day rain chances for Thursday.

Details:

Plenty of lingering low level moisture (helped along by today's snowmelt) will again likely produce some patchy fog tonight. Not expecting anything too widespread or significant, but definitely could see some travel impacts from freezing fog and isolated areas of lower visibilities. A mild night, with lows only dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Big story for Thursday will be the well above normal temperatures, with at least partial sunshine working on an very mild low level thermal environment setting the stage for much of northern lower Michigan to make a run at the lower 40s...with just a bit cooler readings north of the big bridge. May see some late day rain start to spread into southwest areas as deep moisture advection within strengthening isentropic upglide starts to introduce itself. Main rain event holds off until Thursday night. That information is to follow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Definitely an active period of weather through this weekend with at least two systems set to impact our area. First one is a warm and wet one, with low pressure expected to ride up across northern Michigan Thursday night. A buckling northern stream and additional southern stream energy enter the picture for the weekend, perhaps drumming up some accumulating snow for at least parts of our area. While nothing too significant, more northern stream influences continue into next week, returning our temperatures to more typical mid-January levels.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Initial focus on rain evolution and temperature trends Thursday night. Concerns then become directed at this weekends potential accumulating snow event.

Details:

Thursday night definitely not looking good for the snow-lovers amongst us as low pressure rides up across northern Michigan. Pre- system airmass is already mild, and expected track now places much of northern lower Michigan within the warm sector of the system. Will see temperatures warm overnight, and could easily see at least parts of northern lower Michigan make a run at 50 degrees by early Friday morning (with several locations nearing or approaching record highs for Friday). Strong moisture advection and lift will produce widespread rain as well, with expected precipitable water values up and over three quarters of an inch easily supporting rain amounts in excess of half an inch for most areas by sunrise Friday...with some areas along and northwest of the low passage likely making a run at an inch. This rain, combined with those warm temperatures and well above freezing dewpoints, will result in efficient snow melting... adding to the runoff. While not looking at any widespread flooding concerns, definitely could see some standing water on area roadways as well as a decent response in our rivers. While no freezing rain is expected, could also see the secondary and untreated road surfaces become quite slick before melting is complete.

Temperatures will fall a bit on Friday, but lack of any real significant cold source will still keep temperatures well above normal and continue the melt process. Any lingering light rain/snow showers should come to an end during the day. Attention quickly focuses on next system set to visit the area later Saturday into Sunday. Still many more questions than answers with regards to this system, with its strength and track highly predicated by how much interaction occurs with southeast digging northern stream energy and some southern stream support rotating out of the southwest Conus. As expected, spread in the ensemble suite is still quite large, but will say there are increasing members showing a bit weaker and east displaced system than what was advertised yesterday. With that said, support is definitely there for some accumulating snow to spread north across our area later Saturday, with more impressive northern stream influences likely allowing at least some lake component to develop later Saturday night into Sunday. Simply to much uncertainty to offer any real specifics, with best advice to continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts for the more than expected future adjustments. Temperatures will trend cooler this weekend, with highs by Sunday in the 20s (about where they should be for this time of year).

Broad troughing looks to control our weather heading into next week, at least allowing our temperatures to fall a bit closer to normal levels. Flow regime does offer the opportunities for some passing clipper-type systems to bring some additional snow at times. However, at least as of now, not seeing anything real significant heading through the middle portions of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Expect LIFR/IFR cigs to prevail thru tonight...some breaks in the cloud deck leading to a brief period of VFR cigs but expect any clearing will result in vsby reductions back to IFR/LIFR. Possible the IFR cigs line gets north of MBL tonight but expect BR/FG to bring visbys back down. Cigs could remain VFR/MVFR during the day, esp 15-20z...but will drop back to IFR and lower after 21-0z with rain moving in from the SW. Still expect S 25-30kt LLJ around 1500-2000ft to strengthen to 30-40+kts after 18z...atop sustained 10-15kts from the SE at the surface. Surface low pressure track this afternoon/evening could be across MBL/TVC/PLN and could keep winds lower than expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.