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KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds and lake effect snow through the day today.

- Another round of mainly light snow on Saturday.

- Gusty winds possible Saturday night.

- Colder with lake effect snow on Sunday, then hovering near to above freezing at times next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 249 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Trough axis will be in the midst of swinging on through the region this morning, with lake effect and enhanced snows ongoing across northwest snow belts. Deep low pressure system off to the northeast will result in a tight pressure gradient and impressive low level wind fields, with windy conditions expected through a good chunk of the day. The combination of falling and blowing snow, and any residual icy roadways will make for a hazardous morning commute, and tough conditions through the midday hours. Wind gusts between 35 to 45 mph will be possible (isolated higher peak gusts) through the day with isolated power outages not out of the question. Elected to go with a wind advisory for today given the soundings and some progged wind gust fields, potential impacts, and a heads up for locations that are currently not included in any winter headlines. Expect a few additional inches of snow through the day today, especially for snow belts west of I-75, for a storm total of ~2-4/2-5" with locally higher amounts. Moisture quality in the lower portions of the atmosphere will degrade through the day as the upper low pulls away, with any impactful snow waning through the afternoon. Similarly, winds will decrease during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper low continues off well off to the east tonight with quickly rising heights and warm advection ahead of the next system. Moisture begins to increase from the west, with snow likely falling before daybreak for portions of the eastern UP. Temperatures will rise some through the night in advance of the next system as well. More details to follow below on the Saturday snow.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 249 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Day 2-3 (Saturday - Sunday):

Next system to influence the area will be through the day Saturday as a short wave moves across Lake Superior and into portions of northern MI. Best area of convergence and lift will be across the eastern UP, where the forecast currently calls for ~2-4" of snow. Lesser amounts farther south in northern lower Mich, ~1-2" in spots. It will be breezy during the day but turn quite windy into the overnight Saturday night as winds shift to the west and northwest behind a frontal boundary (perhaps the most important hazard to keep an eye on). Any more widespread snow will transition to lake effect snow into Sunday. Does not look like a significant lake effect event on Sunday for the time being (a few inches across a relatively small area within the northwest snow belts of northern lower, maybe a little more in eastern upper), but there may be a window where strong winds combine with falling snow to cause some disruption. High temperatures in the 30s on Saturday will fall into the 10s and 20s on Sunday behind the frontal boundary.

Days 4-7 (Monday - Thursday):

After the cold second half of the weekend, milder air from the central and western portions of the nation will move eastward. Thus, expect daytime high temperatures to hover around or above freezing through the early to middle portions of next week. There will be a couple of pieces of energy within the atmosphere as well so there will be occasional rain/snow showers during the early portions of the week. Could there be a brief cold front in there at some point next week, possibly, but the overwhelming amount of guidance keep the region well above normal through much of the rest of December.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Lake effect -SHSN to carry through the remainder of the afternoon, largely tapering in intensity as we head into the evening. Largely MVFR to brief IFR to continue prevailing through the evening. Any SHSN will bring potential for LIFR if it passes directly over the TAF site. Gusty WNW to NW winds will slacken this evening. A brief reprieve of marginal MVFR to VFR this evening as we get between systems. Winds turn S to SSE later tonight, quickly picking up in intensity as the next system builds. SN returns to the picture later tonight into Saturday morning, bringing back more firmly MVFR to IFR conditions at times, with greater impacts anticipated the farther north one goes with respect to the TAF sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031-032-099. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ086. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-322.