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KEY MESSAGES

- Burst of snow this evening and early tonight, with additional snow and blowing snow; tapering through the night from west to east.

- Major winter storm remains possible Sun into Mon, with a myriad of weather hazards: heavy snow, significant icing, and strong winds. Some built in uncertainty still remains.

- Couple precip chances, less significant, mid to late next week as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Vigorous vort max will continue to move eastward this evening with wrapped up low pressure system following suit across Lake Huron. Consequently, thump of back end snowfall expected this evening along with windy conditions and thus, more blowing snow. Expect a few additional inches of snowfall with this burst, perhaps 2-4", with poor driving conditions. Snow/snow showers taper off through the night. There will be a break in the action is expected on Saturday, with subtle rising heights out ahead of the next major storm system for Sunday.

Vigorous trough dives into the High Plains and Intermountain West later Saturday into Sunday, deepening and turning neutral tilt around Iowa. Upper low continues to move northeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region, center likely passing somewhere in the vicinity or to the west of northern lower MI. Given this upper level configuration, sfc low pressure will move across the Mid MS Valley east and northeast across portions of central and southern MI, deepening as it moves northeast through the day on Monday. Consequently, warm advection is anticipated late Sat night into Sunday night with a thump of snow, changing to a wintry mix and potentially rain the farther south you go. Farther north and west, especially western portions of Chippewa county, mainly snow is anticipated during this time. The potential exists for ~1-2" of liquid precipitation during this time frame, which will lead to significant snow and ice accumulation. Cold high pressure to the northeast will change snow over to a freezing rain across northern lower with significant icing possible. The devil is in the details though, see primary forecast concerns below.

Low pressure system continues to wrap up to our northeast Monday and Monday night, consequent of the deepening upper low. Tight pressure gradient and lake effect snows on Monday will lead to additional snow accumulations and very strong winds. This will be especially true near the Lake Michigan coastline, where even ensemble guidance at this point indicates 40-50+ mph possible. A few point soundings do show impressive lake effect snow profiles as well so several additional inches of lake effect snow will be possible Monday and Monday night combined with strong winds. So this will certainly be impactful with significant blowing and drifting snow through the day and into the overnight on Monday.

The low pressure system ejects way northeast by mid week, as significant ridging builds across the West Coast. Thus, northern stream energy will be a little active mid to late next week riding around the ridge to bring additional precip chances, either rain/snow the rest of the week. Temperatures start out cold on Tuesday, and then moderate from there.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Burst of snow this evening:

A burst of snow and wind is expected this late afternoon/evening with reduced visibility and an additional round of poor driving conditions as the trough axis swings through and pressure gradient tightens. Could be an additional 2 to 4" of snow with this round. Winds will also be quite strong, with 40-45+ mph winds possible, especially along and south of ~M-72 (still windy elsewhere). The reasoning for the extension of the winter weather products.

Major Winter Storm Sunday Through Monday Night:

Bottom line up front:

Significant snowfall accumulations between 1 to 2 feet (locally higher) possible across the Tip of the Mitt into Eastern Upper Michigan Sat night through Sunday night. Significant icing possible across a portion of northern lower MI Sunday and Sunday night. Strong winds and additional snow/blowing snow Monday and Monday night.

Details:

Major winter storm is expected to begin late Saturday night, with the bulk of the precipitation Sunday through Monday night. Latest guidance seems to have come a little farther north with the wintry mix line, although there will still be a pretty good thump of snow late Sat night through Sunday initially. The farther north one is across northern lower and into eastern upper, the better potential for more snow. For certain, looks like the best snow will be across eastern upper, with the lowest potential for significant wintry weather south of M-55. The battle ground between the Tip of the Mitt and M-55 will be the hardest to pinpoint the exact precipitation type and snow amount, but there will still be a thump of snow late Sat night into portions of Sunday (4-6"+ inches across northern lower) before a changeover from sleet and freezing rain. As of the latest guidance, the best potential for over a foot of snow (on Sunday and Sunday night) will be across the Tip of the Mitt and into eastern upper (18"+ across eastern UP). Best potential for significant icing (0.25"+) will likely be somewhere between M-68 and M-55, with plenty of shifting in guidance over the last couple of runs. Latest NBM probs show a medium potential (~40-70%) for greater than 0.10" of ice across a good chunk of northern lower, although worth noting some deterministic guidance has a significant amount of ice within the output (which is 1:1 ratio of rain to freezing rain, which is not going to happen, but still the potential for significant icing is becoming increasingly likely (>0.25" of radial ice potentially)). Sfc pattern does show a cold high pressure to the northeast with sfc temps below freezing across northern lower later Sunday and Sunday night, adding a little confidence to the idea of significant icing across portions of northern lower Michigan.

On Monday, the concern shifts from heavy snow/mixed precip to moderate to heavy snow and strong to very strong winds. Strong pressure gradient behind this system will shift winds to the northwest, resulting in lake effect snow and strong wind gusts. Potential exists for 50+ mph near the lake MI shoreline, along with an additional several inches of snow.

One thing is for certain, significant impacts will be felt from this system, whether it is significant icing across portions of northern lower leading to infrastructural impacts/power outages, significant snow accumulations on Sunday and Sunday night across the eastern UP and Tip of the Mitt, and/or the lake effect snow and very strong winds on Monday. Prepare accordingly and stay tuned to the latest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 736 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Improving conditions tonight. Low pressure is departing eastward, though an area of enhanced wraparound snow is moving across northern MI this evening. LIFR/LIFR conditions initially, but improvement will occur from w to e relatively quickly. MVFR and then VFR conditions will develop late tonight, and persist into Saturday. Gusty nnw winds tonight, especially early. Light winds Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ016>018- 086-088-095>098. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ020>036- 041-042-087-099. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Tuesday morning for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.