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KEY MESSAGES

- Times of showers and storms today. Strongest storms will be capable of producing small hail, brief heavy rain, and gusty outflow winds. Little to no chances for severe storms.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through next week

- Quiet weather Sunday and Monday, then rain chances return mid week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Currently, radar depicts clusters of showers orientated in a NW/SE band moving across the central part of the L.P. Some light to moderate rain is being seen from these, an embedded thunderstorm or two. Water vapor satellite imagery confirms some PVA over central MI to aid in continuing this activity this morning. The ultimate culprit of the PVA, an upper short wave, will continue to the SE and reinforce cooler air overhead for today. Although not much activity is expected this morning (lingering light shower/stratiform rain activity in some spots), instability will increase to 500+ j/kg by mid day. With surface heating and the continual cooling aloft, areas along and east of I-75 could see up to +1000 j/kg. Shear remains weak below 6km. Strong low level lapse rates and around an inch PWATs will result in pulse type showers starting around mid day to early afternoon today (especailly over NE lower). Stronger storms will need to tap into the shear at 20 kft and above to continue growing. With light winds at the surface and rising mixing heights, there is good chances for a lake breeze to establish and help contribute lift to these afternoon showers. Showers will likely increase in coverage this afternoon with the lifting aid, however severe threats remaining minimal due to the lack of environmental factors which would sustain storm growth. The strongest storms will be capable of small hail, heavy rain, and gusty outflow winds. Low chances remain for severe hail and/or wind gusts as freezing levels of 8 kft, low shear, and weak mid level lapse rates should stunt storm growth.

The one possible threat today could be showers and storms training along the Lk Huron lake breeze boundary. Generally NNW storm motion and light winds could favor such a scenario, which would lead to repeated rounds of rain totaling as much as an inch or more. If this occurs, localized flooding in low spots and hilly terrain could be seen.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere this morning, a shallow PNA pattern exists over the CONUS with upper ridging over the Rockies and broad troughing stretching from the northern plains to the eastern coast. The ridging over the US west is being dampened by an approaching upper trough over the Pac NW. This feature will continue to suppress the ridging, keeping it confined to the SW US starting Sunday. This will result in broad/zonal upper troughing over the central and northern CONUS (beginning Sunday). With a large area of generally lower upper heights, a few distinct closed lows will be dancing around each other as we head into next week. This leads to the persisting north (times of NE and NW) flow and cooler air over northern MI through much of next week. Drier continental CAN air will seep in near the surface Sunday, keeping rain chances out of the forecast through Tuesday. Starting midweek, upper ridging starts to build into western CAN, which will start to weaken and shift the closed lows to the east. A surface low and upper shortwave will likely move over northern MI sometime Wed/Thurs, however this pattern does not allow for deep gulf moisture advection and the lingering continental moisture will likely be limited in the amount available to precipitate. Not expecting large amounts of rainfall mid week, however a storm or two could be possible. The large area of lower upper height's gets compressed into a long wave trough, and by the end of the period looks to try and exit east with an upper ridge on its heels. This could be a hint that warming temperatures will return near the end of the month, however it is still early. For what its worth, the 8-14 Day CPC outlook does show this signal with favoring above normal temperatures for the end of June and into early July. Chances leaning to above normal precipitation hint at the continued chances for showers and storms during this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions look to persist through the issuance period with showers and perhaps a few storms possible as things are currently starting to bubble up on radar. Any storm that does perhaps track over a terminal could be capable of producing brief MVFR conditions, but this looks unlikely at this time. One thing to note is that some guidance wants to bring in lower visibilities and ceilings due to fog forming at KMBL Saturday morning...put in a slight hint of some lowering visibilities this TAF cycle but current confidence is low this will occur. Light winds through the period, with some local lake breeze development this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.