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KEY MESSAGES

-Cool and quiet weather continues through the remainder of the work week.

-Light showers return this weekend followed by seasonably warm temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A deep midlevel troughing pattern over Canada with its axis extending through the lower Great Lakes Region will continue to influence the northwoods today and Friday. Surface high pressure will keep conditions quiet through the remainder of the work week until weak upstream troughing currently over the American Rockies makes its way to the southern Midwest. Surface low pressure will follow that trough while weakening, resulting in light rainfall across the CWA around this Saturday.

Lingering low-level moisture will continue some scattered showers this Sunday before midlevel ridging builds over the southwest U.S. and lifts northwest. Heights begin to rise Monday through the Wednesday next week, supporting subsidence aloft and surface high pressure through the remainder of the forecast period. Surface temperatures gradually warm next week as southerly air influence works its way into the northwoods as highs climb above average for late May/early June.

Forecast Details:

Today and Friday...Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will continue cool and quiet weather today. cP air influence will keep temperatures climatologically cool for late May as 850mb temps remain near freezing. Diurnal heating processes will keep highs in the 50s and 60s while overnight lows drop into the mid/upper 30s for most locations. Patchy frost remains possible tonight, favoring the typically colder areas of the CWA (higher terrain, interior), but mid/high cloud cover building from the west due to the approaching trough will hinder efficient radiational cooling tonight.

Saturday and Sunday...Aformentioned troughing building this weekend will return light stratiform rainfall Saturday. Highest probabilities in QPF remain around a quarter inch or less for most of the CWA with relatively uniform coverage. Profiles begin to dry Saturday night as low pressure progresses northeast through Saginaw Bay. Lingering low-level moisture and enough vorticity aloft will support widely scattered showers this Sunday, but little to no additional measurable rainfall is expected at this time.

Monday through Wednesday... 500mb ridging over the southwest builds across the central U.S. early next week. This pattern will support a southerly air influence moving into the Great Lakes Region combined with subsidence aloft and returning surface high pressure. Weather remains quiet and dry through the remainder of the forecast period with minimal precipitation chances and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions will last through the period for all terminals. Generally east winds at 8 to 13kts with G15 to 20kts. Some lake breeze components near KTVC, resulting in north-northeast winds with minimal gusts. Skies will become SCT-BKN with bases remaining AOA 10 kft. Winds will diminish after 02z. East winds will strengthen near the end of the period for Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.