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KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for locally heavy rainfall/flooding Monday morning with low chances for 2-4"+ rainfall across portions of northern Michigan.

- Slight rain chances continue through the middle of the week with dry weather expected heading into the holiday weekend.

- Warming temperatures through the first half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Upper-level ridging stretching from the Great Lakes up past Hudson Bay will continue to slide east early this week. Meanwhile, the low- level jet extending from the southern Great Plains into the Midwest will intensify later tonight into Monday morning, providing forcing/warm air advection over a slow-moving warm front/stationary front draped across the region. A seasonably strong shortwave looks to progress across south-central Canada and the northern Great Lakes in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe as aforementioned ridging works east. Expansive, amplified ridging then looks to build across the center of the continent late this week and into this upcoming weekend.

Forecast Details:

Primary concern will be the increasing potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding -- especially Monday morning. Unfortunately, lower-than-usual confidence currently exists in the evolution of showers and storms this evening through Monday. Latest forecast thoughts are that at least some additional showers and storms will form this afternoon and evening across the southeast quadrant of our CWA and eventually move out over Lake Huron. A relative break in rain chances aside from a few stray showers is anticipated late this evening/early tonight before the heaviest rain potential moves in early Monday morning.

Aforementioned low-level jet forcing is currently expected to kick off showers and storms during this time, but precise location and track of this activity is still highly uncertain. Based on latest observations and guidance, the best chance for training showers and storms through Monday morning will come across the Straits and northern lower Michigan along and north of M-32. Should heavy showers/strong storms materialize, an impressively moist environment will be in place to support torrential rainfall Monday morning -- which is the primary source of concern analyzing latest guidance despite relatively low confidence in how showers/storms will evolve. With PWATs of 1.8"+ exceeding the max moving average and potentially daily max values this evening/Monday morning, any organized showers/storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates well in excess of 1" per hour. Should activity train along/north of the boundary for a few hours, rainfall totals of 2-4" would be possible by Monday afternoon -- along with low chances for 4"+ if strong storms track over certain areas. While severe storms appear unlikely at this time, small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out given at least some elevated buoyancy combined with strong deep-layer shear. It is emphasized that high uncertainty still exists with a wide range of potential forecast solutions for Monday morning, spanning from little rainfall if showers/storms struggle to form to the high-end amounts mentioned above. For additional details on potential impacts, please see the Hydrology Discussion below.

Looking ahead, rain coverage is expected to taper through Monday evening. Slight chances for additional showers/storms will be in place into the middle of the week with much of that time and most locations remaining dry. Temperatures will warm over the next few days with highs potentially reaching into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. Mostly dry weather is expected by the end of the week and into the holiday weekend as previously mentioned ridging helps build high pressure into the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Still looking at widespread MVFR to IFR producing cigs and light mist/fog to impact KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN tonight into at least the first half of Monday. Cigs should continue to rise to VFR at the other locations. Light showers this evening, with some potential for more robust showers with embedded storms developing later tonight into Monday morning. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rain and some gusty winds. Shower coverage should decrease later in the morning and especially the afternoon. Light winds tonight, with winds becoming a bit gusty out of the southwest at KTVC and KMBL later Monday morning into the afternoon. Light winds will continue elsewhere.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Building on the previous discussion, widespread rainfall of around 0.25-0.5" has been seen across much of northern lower Michigan since last night with a swath of around 1" observed in portions of Ogemaw and Arenac counties. Given little gauge response from recent rain and decreasing confidence in widespread amounts exceeding 1" in our southeast quadrant, flooding impacts appear unlikely here through this evening. Primary focus shifts to the corridor mentioned in the Forecast Discussion of the Straits and northern lower Michigan along and north of M-32. It is emphasized here as well that considerable uncertainty still remains in location and amounts of rainfall with potential training showers/storms Monday morning. That said -- while chances are low for any one area to see 2-4"+ of rainfall Monday morning in a few hour period, the potential is there for a narrow swath of the area to see training heavy showers/storms. As was well discussed before, soil saturations exceeding 50 percent and 3 HR flash flood guidance around 1.5"-2" make portions of Cheboygan, Presque Isle, and Alpena counties particularly susceptible to localized flooding impacts given the potential rainfall. Hydrologic ensemble probabilistic forecasts via HEFS unfortunately miss the most likely impacted gauges in the Cheboygan River basin, but quick rises in rivers and flooding will be possible Monday morning -- including in the vicinity of local streams/rivers.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.