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KEY MESSAGES

-Surface high pressure continues (relatively) mild temperatures and quiet weather through Christmas.

-Low level trough digs across Michigan this Friday, delivering a quick shot of mixed precipitation. Cold temperatures across eastern upper today.

-Larger deepening cyclone continues widespread precip, gusty winds and lake effect snowfall chances around the Sunday/Monday timeframe.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Mid-tropospheric ridging pattern across the central U.S extends north today centering its axis over the plains region. At the surface, anticyclonic flow with high pressure remains straddled over the Great Lakes region continuing mild temperatures (mild for late December) and overall quiet condtions.

Forecast Details...

Today...Overnight arctic air mass will spill cold temperatures from Ontario into eastern upper this morning. Temperatures will struggle to climb this morning with persistent low level clouds blocking solar radiation from hitting the surface and light northerly flow will continue cold air advection from the north. Temperatures across eastern upper will likely remain in the single digits until roughly the 18Z hour when anticyclonic flow backs wind direction to the SW. Otherwise, the remainder of the CWA and expect more widespread mild temperatures with highs in the low to mid 30s.

Tonight...As weak cold frontal boundary tracks across the CWA this evening causing light winds to veer northwest tonight. Breezy winds build tonight as support enough cold air advection to drop overnight lows to the mid teen across eastern upper while northern lower remains in the 20s. Atmospherically dry weather continues no chances of precipitation across the CWA through the remainder of the short term.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Christmas and Friday...Midlevel ridge axis centers itself over the upper midwest this Thursday. Surface high pressure extended across the region will keep conditions quiet and dry through Christmas. Active weather returns overnight Christmas night through Friday afternoon as an embedded height disturbance with a small vorticity maxima progresses across Michigan. With H8 temperatures near freezing, mixed precipitation will be the main concern with this forecast. Current guidance continues to keep the boundary of mostly mixed precipitation including freeing rain across central Michigan extending up through M-72 while profiles north of the Bridge remain cold enough to remain snow. Highest probs of ice accumulations of only a trace to a few hundredths while accumulations of 2-4" remain likely across eastern upper.

Saturday through Tuesday Outlook...Upper level pattern turns more active this weekend as midlevel troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska progresses southeast this week and positions itself over the upper midwest this Friday. Surface level cyclone will be deepening and becoming more organized while tracking across the Great Lakes region. Rainfall amounts remain questionable on if the frontal boundary organizes, but cool northwest flow behind the front will likely return classic accumulating lake effect snowfall through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Ongoing MVFR CIGs set to gradually erode to VFR through the morning into this afternoon. Lighter S to SE flow prevails this afternoon, tapering into the evening. Low clouds build back through this evening into tonight, with most sites reverting back to at least MVFR to close out the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.