textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool nights with patchy frost possible

- Otherwise very quiet into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Stout rex blocking reinforced by a chonker of a 1037mb surface high over Quebec to remain overhead throughout the period... upper low over the Ohio Valley to undergo Miller B cyclogenesis and produce what looks like quite the impressive early season nor'easter... but the blocking 500mb ridge and surface will only be forced into retrograde overhead through the weekend and into early next week. As such, anticipating a prolonged period of steady temperatures and drier weather across the region through the weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, longwave troughing to settling along the Pacific coast over the weekend into next week, which should lead to a classic El Nino subtropical jet amplification and result in a series of Pacific moisture rich waves ejecting into the Plains. Numerous question marks regarding the northward extent of the associated deep moisture plume from the aformentioned waves into next week, but nonetheless, there are signals for rain chances creeping into the picture midweek next week and beyond.

Details:

Big blue bubble of no trouble, the big H... whatever words to use for high pressure, they will apply for at least the next 6 days worth of weather forecasting across the region. As such, a complete and utter lack of sensible weather anticipated... overnight forecast calls for dark, gradually turning partly light again in the morning. All George Carlin references aside, there are a couple things to watch with this pattern will be RH levels and gradually drier ground conditions... could see a couple days approach problematic fire weather parameters as highs top out in the low to mid 70s for most through early next week. Overnight lows a product of quality diurnal response through the weekend... interior icebox locales in the 30s, most elsewhere in the 40s... immediate coastal areas near 50. As such, could see our first run of frost headlines at times across interior locales... NBM guidance is already dipping interior temps 37 and lower in places Friday and Saturday nights... so wouldn't be surprising to see locally colder temps. From a climo standpoint, late September is well within range for frost across the region, so this isn't anything dramatically out of the ordinary.

There are some rumblings of a change in pattern heading into and past midweek next week. Aforementioned Pacific coast trough will be quite efficient in drawing deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of California north and east into the Four Corners / southern Plains to start next week. Certainly looks like a classic El Nino active subtropical jet outburst. Some guidance members want to have any shortwave ejections become quite amplified as they move into the Plains and undergo surface cyclogenesis... and thus return moisture and rain chances to the region. Going to be completely honest here, if El Nino climatology is to be honored, the members of guidance depicting minimal moisture intrusion and rainfall into the Great Lakes may win out... one of the hallmarks of a strong El Nino is a persistent dry and warm ridge over the Great Lakes and Midwest... and given a lack of digging northern jet stream activity... I do have a hard time seeing this deeper moisture making it much farther north than the southern Plains, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley. Time will only tell, but my gut thought is the forecast for rainfall trends drier with time if climo is any sort of indicator.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR presently. High clouds will increase with a passing system tonight, though no precip is expected. But that should make fog a little less widespread than last night. However, some fog is still expected. MVFR vsbys forecast at all sites early Friday morning. E to se breezes this afternoon become light tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.