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KEY MESSAGES

- Continued lake effect rain/snow showers this afternoon through tonight. Highest potential for additional accumulation across parts of Grand Traverse County.

- Scattered rain/snow showers linger into Saturday. Drying out late in the weekend with a warming trend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified upper-level pattern continues this afternoon across NOAM. Longwave troughing remains evident over the eastern half of the continent, including the Great Lakes, with upstream ridging over the southern Plains/desert southwest northward through the Rockies/western Plains. Sfc low pressure sits off the Northeast coast with broad cyclonic flow locally aiding to continue to draw in cold air from the north. During the day Saturday, heights gradually begin to rise as upstream ridging makes slow headway towards the Great Lakes. Attendant sprawling sfc high pressure will follow suit with both of these features aiding to bring a return of quieter (and eventually warmer) weather Sunday through at least the middle of next week.

Forecast Details: Primary focus continues to revolve around ongoing lake effect snow this afternoon through tonight, with potential for localized snow accumulation and associated impacts to continue. Winds still out of the north-northeast early this afternoon, but subtly turn more out of the due north later this afternoon and eventually more north-northwest later tonight into Saturday. Given the above, ongoing rain/snow showers most numerous over north- northeast flow lake belts of far northwest lower MI (GT Bay + points west/southwest) and over far northeast lower near the Lake Huron coast. This should eventually transition to more traditional north flow areas as the day wears on, but really isn't all that big of a change from present. Embedded shortwave this evening may flare up additional, more numerous, showers inland as well for a time before that limited synoptic support exits south overnight. Primary precip type likely to remain snow inland, with more rain mixing in at the immediate lakeshore.

In terms of accumulation this afternoon through tonight, primary area of focus continues to be around the Grand Traverse Bay region, initially Leelanau County, eventually transitioning to downwind of the bay across parts of central Grand Traverse and perhaps into northern Wexford counties. Latest snow accum. probabilities across central Grand Traverse County for late this afternoon through Saturday morning include 50-70% chances of 2"+, and 15-25% chance of 4"+. Spotty sub-5% for 6"+. Outside of this area, probabilities for meaningful snow are much lower, with generally an inch or less of new snow expected across the remainder of northwest lower, and some spotty minor accumulation possible across the remainder of north- central/northeast lower into parts of the eastern U.P. In terms of headlines, while deterministic accumulation won't necessarily achieve winter weather advisory criteria, will opt to extend Leelanau County for a few more hours and for Grand Traverse County through 12z Saturday, with the scales being tipped in that direction given this is still the first snow event of the season.

During the day Saturday, lingering lake induced precip likely to be mixed with or turn to more rain, and really may wind up more drizzly as the morning wears on and moisture depth really struggles. Warm advection gradually ramps up through the day, albeit slowly, with a limited lake response remaining possible perhaps all the way through Saturday night.

High pressure settles overhead Sunday with quiet weather anticipated Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Big story for next week will be a return to well above normal temperatures as latest trends supporting high temps in the 40s on Sunday before rising to the low-mid 50s Monday through at least Thursday. Mid- November normal highs range from 40-45 F across the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Lake effect clouds and some showers will continue tonight and early Saturday, before showers start to wane (though clouds continue). TVC most likely to see brief bursts of heavier precip tonight, potentially IFR for a short time in SHRASN. Otherwise MVFR cigs become widespread again tonight, continuing Saturday. Nw to n breezes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ026. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321.