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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain (storms?) today...eventually transitioning to lake effect rain (snow?) showers Thursday night; generally unsettled weather continues into next week.

- Breezy conditions late Thursday/Thursday night, especially for the EUP.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

120kt sub-tropical jet stretches from SoCal into the Lower MS Valley hitting a wall of ridging over the eastern US...resulting in flow sharpening from SW-NE to S-N over the Mid MS Valley up into the Upper Midwest. A bit of an omega block appearing in the western/central US...with MS Valley energy as the downstream lobe of troughing...and energy trudging into NV as the upstream lobe (current signals it should continue its eastward trudgery)...with ridge centered over MT. Zonal polar jet across northern Canada keeping things in motion across north/central Canada...resulting in a PV strand from the Northern Plains up into Quebec and strengthening deformation on the northern side of the system (evident in satellite imagery). Plume of Gulf moisture right up the MS Valley into the Upper Great Lakes...with pwat values of 1.42in at 0z here, and 1.66in at GRB (approx 4-5 standard deviations above the climo mean). On satellite, you can see the moisture spreading out along the deformation axis across northern MN/southern Ontario...rather a stereotypical comma head, with convection from IL to LA along the cold front/dry slot (and where there is more instability to play with)...and a bit of a break in the action from WI into Lower MI in the warm sector of this system. 850mb temps at or above 12C over MI attm, with a bit of 0C air trying to hang on over the Dakotas with the cold conveyor belt of this system. Almost due south 50kt LLJ over IL poking up into Lake MI attm, though little in the way of temperature or moisture advection taking place into northern MI attm. Maturing surface cyclone over the Upper MS Valley...and 1021mb surface high over the Prairies oozing into the northern Plains in the wake of this low, helping keep the pressure gradient strong on the backside of this system as well.

PV maxima to lift northward toward the area this morning, dragging some showers through from south to north; front swings north through the area this afternoon into tonight as the parent surface low continues to wind up to our west. This should bring some more showers to the area going into this evening and the overnight. It will cool off later tonight into Thursday, with little in the way of a diurnal temp swing expected as cold air will be rushing into the region, especially late Thursday into Thursday night as a lobe of northern stream energy digs into the trough for the end of the work week...with breezy north winds and lake effect rain (snow?) showers. Guidance is going back to the idea of troughing getting cut off in our region for the end of the week/weekend, which has potential to keep things unsettled and most likely fall like, though it's possible some ridging may try to sneak in Saturday/Saturday night ahead of a northern stream niblet. Still unclear whether this feature will also dig into the Great Lakes or remain just to our north. Overall...appears the northern stream will remain progressive and active into the early part of next week; sort of a clipper-y idea with prevailing NW to WNW flow aloft.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain (storms?) today...Expect first dry slot to lift through this morning/early afternoon which should lead to convective instability ...and potential for an uptick in shower activity this morning from southwest to northeast. Perhaps even a rumble of thunder? Better chance of that would be later this afternoon ahead of the cold front swinging northward across the area. Expect a bit more potent low- level lift with this feature, given signals for strong low-level fgen and perhaps a few dozen joules of low-level cape. Can't help but wonder if we could get some low-topped shenanigans as the cold front blows through this afternoon, as deep layer (and even low- level) shear will be mediocre/marginal, around 20-30kts. Could be something to keep an eye on. Think the best shot at this would be near and east of I-75 where there is a better likelihood of some directional shear ahead of the front with southeasterly surface winds. With pwats still above average as this system exits...any storms could produce some locally heavier rainfall totals, but these should also be relatively quick-moving...though there could be something of a pivot point near the Tip of the Mitt/M-68 corridor.

Breezy for EUP Late Thursday into Friday...currently looking at potential for a strong pressure gradient on the backside of the departing low Thursday afternoon/night...which looks strongest across the EUP and Lake Superior attm. Pressure gradient appears to support sustained winds in the realm of 15-20kts from the N/NE (likely 20-25kts or better over Lake Superior into Whitefish Bay). With the low-level jet remaining around 30kts or so on the back of the system...there should also be potential for some gusts in excess of 30kts (particularly over the waters, esp northern Lake MI and generally west of Whitefish Point, where there should be a better fetch on northerly winds)...and gales could be possible.

Lake effect rain (snow?) showers Thursday night into Friday...Temps aloft will fall further Thursday night...dropping below 0C perhaps as early as late afternoon, but most likely by the late evening and overnight. This will be sufficient for overlake instability generation, and, combined with deep moisture beneath the trough axis, should result in lake enhanced showers. Think these will be primarily rain...but with temperatures likely dropping into the 30s, and profiles aloft looking to fall below -5C...snowflakes should mix in, particularly across the interior EUP Thursday night where a more NE component to the flow should focus better lake impacts...though a more direct northerly flow would bring the focus a little more into northern Lower, particularly downwind of Grand Traverse Bay. Think the snowflake idea would be a little slower to get into northern Lower, particularly with the lakes still around +11C to +13C...but would not be impossible to see some in the higher terrain. This idea could linger into the early part of the day on Friday, with lingering lake effect rain showers and much more seasonable temps for early November (highs in the 40s). With high pressure trying to sneak in late Friday (though some semblance of lake troughing should slow it down), temps should fall again, and any lingering shower activity would see some flakes mix in again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain showers will make a renewed push into more of northern MI Wednesday. Some light showers will occur tonight, especially in eastern upper MI (CIU). CIU also sees IFR cigs tonight, and again Wednesday evening. PLN with MVFR cigs at times Wed. APN/TVC/MBL all see MVFR cigs settle in for the long haul during the day Wed.

Southerly winds continue, breezy at times. LLWS overnight and Wed morning PLN/APN/TVC/MBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ346-348- 349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.