textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today with north winds, above normal temperatures return Wednesday

- Rain chances return near the end of the work week with mild temperatures lingering through the end of the month

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Currently, satellite and radar show mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rain/virga moving across northern lower and eastern upper. Very little rain has reached the ground over the last 24 hours, with a couple hundredths near the tip of the mitt and over eastern upper with up to 2 tenths near Whitefish point. The 00z KAPX RAOB shows 1 inch PWATs struggling to overcome the dry air in the lower levels, with low level RH at 69%. Misaligned forcing has resulted in its weakening trend which is continuing into this morning. Brief light rain will be possible into this morning for a spot or two, however it will mostly continue to be clouds. A cooler and drier airmass near the surface will continue to seep into MI today, while more ideal upper forcing exits to the east. Skies will trend towards partly sunny for most spots (besides M-72 and south) this afternoon under breezy north winds. High temperatures will be 10 to almost 20 degrees cooler today, reaching into the 40s and 50s.

The 1033 mb surface high will slide over Ontario CAN tonight, turning low level winds east. Increasing cloud cover from activity over the plains and a 3 to 4 mb W/E sfc gradient across the northern part of the state will make fog formation difficult tonight. Under this cooler airmass, temperatures will drop into low 30s for eastern upper and interior cold spots of northern lower MI. The heat and moisture differences from the air and the inland & Great Lakes will be high, resulting in a moisture flux.. so localized fog and mist will remain possible, but low confidence for widespread fog exists tonight.

Tuesday, a shortwave and surface cyclone will continue to intensify and move towards the northern plains up an over a building upper ridge over the Ohio River valley. Southwest winds in the lower levels return with east winds near the surface persisting. Temperatures will warm but slightly due to the continued influence of the surface high and cloud cover. Very low chances for precipitation in the area, however slight chances exist for far western locations. MI will be on the fringes of the warm sector as the cyclone reaches CAN late Tuesday, however by Wednesday the surface high to the east is far enough away that winds become more influence by continued WAA to the west. Winds will turn south with temperatures warming back into the 60s. For late October, these high temperatures will start to approach records near northern lower.

A stronger Pacific system will have reached the northern plains mid week, which not only is enhancing the WAA over the western Great Lakes region but bringing deep subtropical moisture northward and providing the opportunity for better forcing. Widespread light rain chances with embedded showers along a passing cold front will move through Thursday. At this time, chances remain low for this to bring impactful weather. NBM probabilities show a 30% to 40% chance of NW lower and eastern upper seeing a greater than a tenth of an inch of rain. Higher amounts are possible due to the possibility of the convective element near the boundary. Drier air will cut off precipitation chances for the weekend, with temperatures remaining mild.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Occasional MVFR possible at APN, PLN, and TVC through the night as a cold front passes through. Perhaps a shower or two possible, but light enough to keep VSBYs VFR. Once the front clears, skies will trend toward mid cloud through the morning, trending clearer by afternoon. North winds generally sustained 10kts or less, occasionally gusting as high as 15kts today.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.