textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity continues with some improvement from previous days.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms through Friday with severe storms possible with large hail, damaging wind and heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Strong upper ridge across the Great Lakes will gradually flatten through the end of the week as several shortwaves and strengthening westerlies slowly suppress the highest heights. A quasi-stationary boundary snaked across northern Michigan currently will also sink southward with time, which may push the shower/storm focus further south, as well as providing at least a little relief from the 70F+ dewpoints. Convective evolution from day to day will remain challenging with low predictability.

Additional showers/storms likely tonight with additional shortwave energy riding along an elongated low level theta-e gradient draped across parts of Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Low confidence in the details, as convective evolution will be driven largely by mesoscale processes and residual outflows from earlier convection. Plenty of moisture and instability and severe storms will remain possible with large hail and damaging winds. The main focus of showers/storms may shift slightly south on Thursday with the gradient of deepest moisture/instability. Severe storms possible once again.

Stronger forcing with a more defined shortwave arrives for the end of the week with potentially greater coverage of showers/storms for later Friday into Friday night. Organized convection certainly a possibility during this timeframe with plenty of instabilty and shear. Locally heavy rain also possible. Unsettled weather continues into the holiday weekend with more shower/storm chances. Temperatures should be more comfortable with highs generally in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s.

We may fall short of heat advisory criteria in some areas on Thursday with slightly lower dewpoints. But heat indices still likely 90-100F in many areas (possibly 100-105 southeast areas). So will let heat advisory continue.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Except for APN, the late morning/early afternoon thunderstorm complex has moved east of the terminals as of the 18Z forecast issuance. The strongest part of round 2 is on a farther south track from WI into northern Lower Mi where greater instability is available. Assuming it holds together, it tracks near MBL while spreading a borderline MVFR/VFR stratiform rain or rumble of thunder toward TVC but mainly south of PLN through mid afternoon.

A break of VFR is expected from late afternoon through the evening while monitoring potential for additional storms later tonight. A new round of development is expected along the nearly stalled cold front in the upper Midwest. Some of these are projected to survive eastward into the eastern U.P. and northern Lower Mi late tonight into Thursday morning. Timing and intensity details are better added in later updates as trends solidify.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-097>099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-344- 345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341- 342. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ346.