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KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temps return today, and persist thru the forecast.

- Very good shower chances late tonight into Thursday morning. A few t-storms possible late tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Broad return flow is currently underway in the Great Lakes, between high pressure over New England, and an emerging cold front in the central and northern plains. Warm/moist advection is interacting with a couple of shortwaves transiting the region early this morning. This has resulted in a baroclinic leaf pattern over and east of MI, along with sporadic light showers, especially in eastern upper MI. However, the back edge of this cloud cover is beginning to advance east across northern Lake MI.

Wsw flow aloft persists into late Thursday, before a passing shortwave swings winds aloft to zonal and then wnw. The latter also occurs as ridging in the northern US plains and Canadian prairie builds by this weekend.

Leftover showers will depart, and cloud cover drastically reduce, over the next several hours. Mainly sunny skies are progged for northern lower MI after mid-morning, while the eastern UP has a bit more cloud cover today. Warm advection and at least partial sunshine will contribute to much warmer temps today. If anything, guidance has trended slightly warmer today. Highs today in northern lower MI range from the mid-upper 60s along most coastlines, to near 70/lower 70s inland. The eastern UP will see low-mid 60s. Borrowing from the previous forecaster:

Oct 28 High Temperature Records Location | High Temp (Year) ANJ | 64 F (1924) PLN | 71 F (1955) GLR | 70 F (1955) APN | 75 F (1989) HTL | 73 F (1989) TVC | 80 F (1927) We should threaten ANJ/PLN/GLR and perhaps HTL.

As shortwaves race east across southern Canada, low pressure will consolidate and strengthen over northern Ontario tonight. An associated cold front enters the eastern UP and far northern lower MI late tonight, and the rest of northern MI Thursday. Though the strongest forcing remains in Canada, heights do gradually lower here beginning late tonight, and a (veering) low level jet will support moisture transport northward in the warm sector. Initial precip chances reach western Chip/Mack Cos, and the nw lower MI coast, toward midnight tonight. Likely to categorical pops arrive in nw and n central lower MI, and the eastern UP, overnight. Precip should become somewhat diffuse by the time we reach sunrise, as the low level jet veers parallel to the incoming surface cold front. The nw half of the forecast area has thunder possible (noting the entire forecast area is in the most recent day 1 outlook from SPC).

Spotty showers remain possible Thu morning, but better moisture/ forcing/instability will be suppressed south as the day proceeds. No precip after mid-afternoon, and a likely period of at least partial sunshine, perhaps more than that in northern lower. This will support continued mild temps, though not as warm as today except near Saginaw Bay.

High pressure builds from the Canadian high prairie to the Great Lakes, providing quiet wx to close the work week and even into the weekend. For now, guidance is continuing to reduce pops this weekend, as relatively meager return flow gets gobbled up by persistent dry low-level air off of the high pressure, by then to our east. Precip chances are now progged to ramp up after Monday, as both northern and southern stream upper trofs advance from the west. Above-normal temps thus seem likely to persist well into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR. Early morning showers will depart eastern upper MI shortly. Clouds will decrease behind this, with mostly sunny skies today in northern lower MI, partly cloudy in eastern upper. Clouds increase again tonight, and showers and likely in the north and west after midnight. Not impossible for a TSRA as well, though this chance is small enough to not mention yet. Cigs will thicken and lower as showers move in, but are expected to remain VFR.

Southerly breezes increase today, and gustier yet tonight. LLWS also develops tonight at all sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.