textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Shower threat ends Sunday morning

- Dry weather kicks off next work week, followed by the return of rain chances by mid-week

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Mid level troughing working slowly east across the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon...anchored by closed mid level circulation and attendant surface low sliding across southern Illinois. Juxtaposition of best forcing and deep layer moisture convergence tied to that anchor point, bringing much more organized and substantial rains to the lower Lakes and Ohio Valley. Forcing and moisture convergence not nearly on the same scale in our neck of the woods, keeping our showers much less organized and intense. Plenty of clouds however, helping keep our temperatures a bit on the cool side of specific normal values....with current reading in the 60s to low/mid 70s.

Nearly complete detachment of southern portion of mid level troughing expected as we head into early next week (broad mid level circulation looks to center over the Tennessee Valley) as our overhead flow regime remaining quite progressive through the period. This will keep any threat for our typical early August dog days of summer heat locked up well to our west and south. While the vast majority of the extended looks dry, passing waves within that progressive flow pattern will bring periodic chances for additional showers at times.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower evolution through Sunday morning...followed by temperature trends and addressing any additional shower threat through the remainder of the period.

Details:

Still expecting some passing showers this afternoon into Sunday morning (perhaps a rumble of thunder or two into early this evening along differential heating boundaries) with passing mid level troughing and weak inverted surface trough. Footprint of showers expected to decrease from northwest to southeast later tonight into Sunday morning, with the threat for showers largely over with by the afternoon. Large area of Canada originated high pressure builds into the Northwoods Sunday night, slowly working across the region Monday and Tuesday. This sets up what should be some ideal summer weather, with sun-filled skies, high temperatures in the 70s to middle 80s (warmest Tuesday), and low humidity.

Falling mid-level heights and attendant surface trough/cold front set to arrive later Tuesday night into Wednesday, likely drumming up some chances for showers and storms in the process. Disconnect between this forcing and deepest tropical moisture plume to our south and east should prevent this from becoming a more widespread and significant rain event.

Trends support broad long-wave troughing dominating our weather the second half of the week. Again, this looks to keep any heat well removed from our region. Periodic waves within relative fast flow aloft will bring at least the threat for additional shower chances at times, but not seeing any real evidence of any appreciable widespread heavy rain events as low level streamline wind analysis suggests deepest tropical moisture axis remaining off to our east where ridge/trough interface will reside.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 743 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Cigs and perhaps vsbys will lower tonight. Ongoing showers will diminish and/or depart to the southeast. But stratocu and stratus will likely expand late tonight. Keep CIU VFR, but the northern lower MI sites are MVFR overnight, and APN will drop to IFR. Light winds tonight, a ne breeze develops Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.