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KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke/haze through Friday

- Shower/storm chances return Friday-Saturday. Marginal risk for excessive rain and severe storms in part of the area Friday night.

- Cooler next week with occasional rain chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A partial band of mid and high clouds continues to sit over northern MI, extending back to the western and central UP. Some virga is noted on MQTs radar over nw lower MI, but much too high up to be of any concern with drier air below. Those clouds are also of little consequence, given the smoke pall that covers most of MI. Some thinning of the smoke is trying to poke into eastern upper and far ne lower MI from the ne; Drummond Isl has seen vsbys improve all the way to 2SM. Yay, I guess.

Surface low pressure is sitting over the western Dakotas this afternoon. As a digging shortwave trof moves se-ward from central Canada, the surface low kicks east and eventually deepens. The surface low passes just north of MI late Friday night into Sat morning. Warm advection gradually develops here Friday, increasing Fri night up until the cold front goes thru Sat morning.

HRRR smoke guidance suggests that somewhat cleaner air will make further inroads tonight/early Fri morning into parts of eastern upper/ne lower MI. The rest of us will see little progress until late Fri afternoon into Fri evening, when increasing sw flow will start to push our smoke off to the ne. Nw lower MI (TVC/MBL/CAD) will be the 1st to improve later on Friday.

Increasing clouds and some shower chances will precede the improving smoke conditions. Though tonight looks dry, a few showers could poke into far western areas (west of TVC-CAD, and far western Mackinac Co) soon after 12z/8am. A small chance for showers will expand east from there across northern lower MI, but with the highest pops seen in eastern upper MI in the afternoon. Our instability is unimpressive during the day, MuCape values up to 500j/kg, though better instability is lurking just to our west by early evening. Maybe a few rumbles of thunder during the day, but not expecting anything particularly strong.

Shower/storm chances ramp up Fri night, in strengthening warm advection ahead of the surface cold front. This starts in eastern upper MI late evening, and gradually works into northern lower MI overnight. Elevated MuCape values will rise closer to 1k j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear values will be decent enough, in excess of 40kt central and north. We're obviously fighting the wrong side of the diurnal heating cycle. Our best chance for stronger storms would involve something developing and organizing upstream, then taking a run at us (while probably weakening). A marginal svr risk from SPC remains in place in central and northern areas. Highest QPF for this event has shifted north, across upper MI, which can stand some heavy rain more than far northern lower MI can. Still, heavy rain threat will be monitored.

Shower/storms remain likely Sat morning in northern lower MI. By afternoon, just a chance lingers for the ne lower MI coast, as cooler/drier air returns on nw/nnw breezes. The concern is that this may return smoke to the region.

The next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night, as a surface cyclone evolves over southern Hudson Bay, sending multiple shortwaves in our direction. This will support cooler wx here, especially by the mid part of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to reduce VSBYs across northern Michigan for the majority of the forecast period. Some improvement has been seen across far northeast lower and far eastern U.P. earlier this evening, but that may be short lived. Additional relief may come across the same area Friday morning with northeasterly near-surface flow potentially pushing smoke-free air across the international border, but current confidence is that widespread 3/4SM to 2SM VSBYs will persist for many into Friday evening. Calm winds tonight may allow for some worsening of VSBYs as smoke settles closer to the surface.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349. Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.