textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow chances late tonight into early Friday; otherwise, mainly dry Friday-Saturday with moderating temperatures.

- Spring-like warmth Sunday-Tuesday, accompanied by renewed shower and thunderstorm chances (locally heavy in spots) that may linger through the middle of next week. Watching potential for increased localized flooding and severe weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, low pressure responsible for last night's rain is now situated well downstream over Quebec. Attendant cold front sags across southern Ontario through southern MI into the Plains -- essentially a nearly stationary boundary at this point. This boundary becomes the focus for next wave to ride along upstream later this afternoon, eventually bringing another round of inclement weather back to parts of northern MI later tonight into Friday morning.

Mid-upper level heights begin to rise later in the day Friday with expansive ~1032mb high pressure sagging in from the northwest. High pressure becomes centered squarely overhead late Friday night/ Saturday morning with moderating temperatures. Spring-like warmth anticipated for Sunday into early next week, albeit with continued signals for a return of active weather and potentially periods of locally heavy rain at times, which may exacerbate flooding issues across parts of northern MI.

Forecast Details:

Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated this afternoon through the early overnight hours. Lots of afternoon sun gives way to increasing/thickening/lowering clouds this evening/early overnight. By later tonight into Friday morning, anticipating another round of rain/snow to spreading across a good chunk of northern lower MI. Best chances for a transition to all snow generally where precip rates are highest, which latest trends still suggest to be near the M-32 corridor south to near the M-55 corridor (especially north-central and northeast lower). Some localized wet snow amounts up to 2" are conceivable in this area, especially on cooler/elevated surface. Not anticipating much in the way of impact aside from perhaps some slushy roads in spots for the Friday morning commute. South of this area, primarily rain for central lower. On the northern fringes near and north of M-32, perhaps all the way to the Straits, a rain to snow transition likely, albeit lighter in nature with any minor accums generally an inch or less. This round of precip exits west to east through Friday morning, and while a rogue rain/snow shower may linger Friday afternoon, primarily dry conditions are anticipated.

Friday night likely to be a chilly one across northern MI as upstream high pressure begins to settle overhead. Lows likely in the 20s for most, but some teens certainly possible in the typically colder/interior spots. This prior to what should be a beautiful Saturday, featuring full sunshine and afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid-upper 40s far north and from the the upper 40s to mid-upper 50s across northern lower.

Late in the weekend into early next week, upper high builds across the southeast CONUS with troughing becoming evident over the western third of the country. Moisture/instability likely to advect northward across the nation's midsection with PWs of 1-1.25"+ and dew points in the 50s locally by later Sunday into Monday, all while temperatures cruise into the 60s for most areas south of the bridge (50s north). With several waves of energy progged to trek through the central CONUS during the late weekend to early/mid next week time frame, the potential for repeated rounds of rain/storms increases significantly. Longer range ensemble trends suggest 1-3" of QPF Saturday night through Wednesday, with locally higher amounts likely in areas that receive repeated convection. Combined this new QPF with already swollen rivers and rapid snow melt (especially across the eastern U.P. and interior northern lower), and at least localized flooding concerns expected to rise. Worth noting SPC's Day 6 outlook with 15% severe chances already encompassing much of southern MI. Lots of details to be sorted out with that over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Band of MVFR to IFR producing cigs expected to develop across all taf locations this morning. Likely to see some fog/mist as well, along with pockets of light rain at KAPN (mixed with snow), KTVC, and KMBL. Any rain/snow amounts will remain light. Gradual improvement this afternoon as cigs increase and begin to scatter out...with skies trending mostly clear this evening. No significant wind concerns through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.