textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze concerns through Saturday night.

- Rain/snow showers again today, lingering into this evening.

- Unsettled Sunday into next week with additional rain chances, and eventual frost/freeze concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Presumed mesolow overnight, as seen on satellite imagery, has kept POPs in the fcst across the E UP. MDOT webcam seemed to show a little coating of snow on the grassy sfc's, which seems plausible based on radar returns. Added some POPs for that feature and any sprinkles/flurries that survive moving across Lake Michigan.

Nevertheless, upper low continues to spin off to the northeast, with the cold pool aloft across northern MI and subsequent pieces of energy rotating through. Similar environment overall to Thursday, and thus diurnal, instability driven low topped showers/convection (steep low to mid-ish lapse rates) should develop, maybe even blossom, once again late morning and through the afternoon hours. Focus will be northeast lower this afternoon, prior to that Tip of the Mitt +/- (general northwest to southeast progression of highest probability of showers, from Tip of the Mitt south into I-75 and then east into northeast lower). As was experienced by an off-duty meteorologist walking their dogs yesterday; rain, snow, and/or graupel will all be possible once again today. Most locations will only see minor precipitation accumulation but could see a localized tenth or so. Otherwise, activity should largely wane through the evening and overnight hours. Seasonably cold temperatures expected again tonight, with frost/freeze concerns as temperatures fall below freezing for most of northern lower MI. Cloud cover may have an impact due to the diurnal showers but guidance does indicate 20s will be possible. Freeze watch remains as is due to the current ongoing frost/freeze products.

Somewhat quieter the first half of the weekend with seasonably chilly temperatures continuing. Suppose a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out on Saturday, both morning and afternoon, though it'll be quite dry in the low levels during the PM. Frost/freeze concerns remain into Saturday night as temps dip below freezing. Next piece of energy and low pressure system approaches the region on Sunday-Sunday night, with rain possible. Guidance a little spread on the exact placement and amount of precipitation which I think has to do in part with how much convective instability and overall convection manifests west of Lake MI. Decaying convection look to some of the pieces of guidance, but then others suggest much less coverage with overall more minor shower potential. Worth monitoring this over the next couple of shifts with refinement coming.

An active and unsettled pattern is likely next week with continued deep, anomalous troughing across portions of Ontario, extending and rotating south into portions of the Upper Midwest. Most likely period for precipitation during the early to mid week time frame will be ~Monday into Tuesday, albeit still plenty of uncertainty. Deep low pressure system to the north across Canada and approaching frontal boundary and subsequent normal moisture (highest ensemble probs for >0.1" of rain are Mon- early Tues) will be the culprit. Drier air tries to work into the region mid week behind this system likely leading to a renewed round of frost/freeze concerns. Be that as it may, a low pressure system progged across the Ohio Valley bears watching during this time as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Largely VFR tonight aside from CIU, which will contend with occasional SHSN into the morning. Otherwise, light winds tonight turn NNW to NW, holding persistent AOB 15kts. Gradually increasing CIGs will lead to VFR across the board for much of the day as CIGs rise from 3kft to 4 to 5 kft. Winds taper after sunset.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 021>024-026>030-032>036-099. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ020-025-031- 041-042-098. MARINE...None.