textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms progress across the region today through Saturday.

-High pressure builds across the midwest and supports quiet weather through midweek next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Split flow pattern continues to occupy North America today with northerly flow and embedded waves over Canada while weak subtropical flow remains over the mid U.S. Embedded shortwave troughing currently over Minnesota will dig and deepen this afternoon as it progresses over the Southern Ohio Valley by this weekend. Subsequent surface low pressure will bring rounds of showers and storms today through Saturday before moving northeast this Sunday.

Conditions remain mostly benign for the remainder of the forecast period as deepening shortwave troughing will drop H8 temperatures into the low teens and surface temperatures into the 70s this Saturday and Sunday. Aforementioned upstream broad midlevel ridging over the mid/southern U.S. will strengthen and extend its axis through the Great Lakes Region early next week. This pattern will support surface high pressure and overall quiet weather through midweek next week. Long-range ensembles depict midlevel closed low pressure currently over the Alaskan Bay progressing downstream and lifting across the American/Canadian Plains by midweek next week. Chances of precipitation will likely return to the forecast around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, but the latest guidance continues to keep highest probabilities of QPF low.

Forecast Details:

Today and Saturday: The only real active weather for the next several days remains today and Saturday, with the aforementioned surface low pressure developing over the Dakotas and digging across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The main axis of precipitation expected to impact the CWA will be this evening/tonight as moisture extends northeast into Northern Quebec. While convective-driven rainfall is expected to spread across Eastern Upper, light stratiform rainfall will occupy most of Northern Lower. While most of Northern Lower can expect rainfall totals between a tenth to half an inch, the strongest convection remaining north of the bridge will support much higher totals. Model soundings across Mackinac and Chippewa Counties depict long skinny CAPE, PWATs close to 2 and low cloud layer shear to support training storms to deliver event totals of two to three plus inches by Saturday night.

Sunday through Thursday: Subsidence aloft will be supported by the previously mentioned ridging pattern this Sunday through Wednesday. Surface high pressure begins to build across the Midwest, with climatologically cool temperatures on Sunday followed by highs slowly returning to near normal for late July/early August. No precipitation chances are in the forecast until the end of the long- term forecast as ensembles depict large-scale troughing lifting through the Central Plains midweek next week. Probabilities of QPF remain low in the forecast at this time, with the highest likelihood remaining less than a quarter inch for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Any lingering MVFR CIGs and fog at CIU should dissipate fairly quick with primarily VFR expected today. An isolated shower/storm becomes possible at some terminals this afternoon, with increasing shower chances this evening through tonight. Eventually, lower CIGs expected to accompany these showers by later tonight. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.