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KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions continue today as highs will struggle to warm above 0F. Northwest winds gusting up to 20 to 35 mph through the afternoon hours

- Lake effect snow continues today for parts of eastern upper and northwest lower, resulting in an additional 1-3 inches and times of whiteout conditions under heavier bands

- Very cold conditions likely tonight under calm winds, with a 40% chance of overnight lows of at least -15F over typical cold spots in interior northern lower and 80% chances of at leas -15F for Chippewa Co (including the SOO)

- Some relief in temperatures arrives Sunday, however highs will remain in the teens through the period as colder weather lingers most of the week. Growing ice cover will determine chances for precipitation this next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 239 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Currently a very cold airmass is sliding into the central plains, with almost 1050mb surface pressure in Williston, ND. The KMPX RAOB measured -33F at 850mb which is the 11th coldest measured on record. As this air continues to seep down the plains today, gradients remain elevated over MI. West-northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue through the morning today. Temperatures will be on the decline through the day as the cooler airmass creeps in.

A deep 494dam 500 mb upper closed low is currently bottoming out over Lk Superior and southern Ontario. This is providing ideal dynamics to assist lake effect snow showers this morning. This upper low will continue eastward this morning, taking away dynamical forcing and gradually relaxing gradients through the afternoon hours. As this transition occurs, mid morning hours to early afternoon, surface winds will turn more northwesterly with the colder 850mb temps sliding south behind the evading upper low. With this, a few spots of enhanced convergence are possible, one near Whitefish Bay and another over the big 5 in northern lower. These spots of convergence are interesting, as they are likely a result of wind veering quicker over ice covered spots of Whitefish Bay and northern Lk MI (North of Beaver Island). Also during this time, the colder airmass is starting to take over. The DGZ isn't even reaching the cloud base on some soundings by late morning. NW winds and the warm lakes will continue to generate lake effect snow showers through tonight, however most of the precip will likely be in the form of plates or columns (chances increasing for mostly columns later today and tonight). This means very fine looking snow, which will result in very low visibilities under bands of heavier precipitation (most likely in the aforementioned convergence spots). Amounts will be on the lower side due to very small flakes, with low visibilities being the main hazard.

As surface high pressure continues to fill in over the state tonight, the center of the surface high will likely still be over southern MN/WI. As gradients relax enough to calm winds, lake effect snow showers will also weaken and become more driven by mesoscale features. There remains higher confidence in drainage flow off the CAN shield enhancing a convergence area as it meets with some lake aggregate troughing near Whitefish point and Bay. Other convergence bands will also likely set up as land breezes establish overnight tonight. The strength of the land breezes will be determined by how much our interior locations can cool. I will first say that due to this very cold airmass, there is high confidence that almost all locations will be near or below 0F (for the actual temperatures not wind chill). However, since the surface high will likely not be right over head tonight into early Saturday morning, winds could still remain at 3 to 7 mph. Also, some soundings show some saturation trapped under the near surface inversion, which explains why there is 20 to 30% chance for cloud cover of at least 30% for NE lower (where the best chances exist for clear skies). High level clouds will also start to creep in from the south after 4 AM as well. All of this points to the best chances for temperatures to start dropping earlier in the night over NE lower and eastern upper. Drainage off the CAN shield increased chances dramatically for Chippewa Co to drop to -15F or below tonight and Saturday morning. However, for northern lower - higher elevation valleys will likely drop aggressively earlier in the night and into the early morning hours of Saturday. Widespread -10 to 0F will likely be seen for overnight lows tonight, with those typical cold spots possibly dropping to -15F or colder. Early Saturday, temperature will generally level off and possibly even inch up near sunrise as cloud cover moves in.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 239 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Moisture in the mid to upper levels will work its way towards northern lower Saturday and Sunday. Very little chances for snow during this time, besides the low chances of some mesoscale features drifting on land. However the low and mid to upper levels will become somewhat disconnected as higher PV surfaces build in.. resulting in little steering of these features and the heavy reliance on small scale features. With colder temperatures continuing over land, its would be difficult to move things onshore (exception is Whitefish point).

Late Sunday into Monday, the upper level pattern becomes more amplified and could result in some widespread light snow over northern lower and more intense lake effect seeping into eastern upper. Totals for northern lower will likely remain low (under a couple inches at max), however heavier lake effect snow could move over parts of eastern upper Monday as upper dynamics assists in lift.

A couple clippers will likely move through starting early Tuesday, brining snow chances back into the forecast. Although the air will not be as cold as today and tonight, high temperatures will struggle to reach out of the teens all week and over night lows will likely dip near zero most nights for interior locations. Chance are very high for ice cover over the lakes to grow (especially with the lack of strong signals for gales or stronger over the waters). These clipper might not result in too much lake enhanced snow this week. We will be watching how things trend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

LIFR VSBYS continue at times through the afternoon, primarily at TVC/MBL/CIU due to a combination of falling/blowing snow. Winds diminish and snow decreases heading into tonight, with improvement to VFR VSBYs expected area-wide by Thursday morning, although MVFR CIGs may continue at MBL/TVC through the end of the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016- 020>022-025>027-031-032-099. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ086. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.