textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Next system returns widespread precipitation tonight. Chances for freezing rain over interior northern lower and eastern upper, with 50% chances of at least a quarter of an inch of ice north of the bridge.

- Strong east winds with gusts up to 35 mph late tonight into early Saturday

- Multiple rounds of precipitation has led to elevated waters in the Rifle and Manistee rivers

- Colder temperatures and chances for snow return to parts of northern MI Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Satellite and radar depict clusters of weak convection tracking across northern MI this morning, as the now weakened 1001 mb surface low follows shortly behind. This is being carried by a parent upper short wave that is moving into southern CAN. Low clouds and fog will linger over northern MI towards sunrise this morning, however west winds will eventually usher in drier and cooler air later this morning. Temperatures this afternoon will hang in the mid 30s to low 40s for much of northern MI.

Over the western CONUS, an upper closed low spins over ID/MT/WY with the upper trough's base extending south over the desert SW. Per the 00Z RAOBs, up to a half inch PWATs is seen with the Pacific moisture within the upper closed low. To the south, less but still some moisture (a third of an inch PWATs). In the SE CONUS, a Bermuda high continues to direct gulf moisture northward. This is seen in the ALPW, showing around 0.5" to 0.75" of sfc - 850mb PW reaching OK/AK/TN. Another CO lee side low is starting to pull this gulf moisture towards KS this morning. So although west winds are brining in some drier air today, another surge of gulf moisture is setting up over the central plains as upper level Pacific moisture moves into the northern plains. As the upper closed low/mid latitude cyclone reaches the northern plains today it will become more neutrally tilted, swinging the surface cyclone towards IA/IL and strengthening a southwesterly LLJ. Warm and moist air will overrun the cooler and drier airmass in place tonight. Under the inversion, winds will become easterly by this evening due to influence from a CAN airmass to the north. The near surface airmass will cool tonight into the high 20s to low 30s north of the bridge, and low to mid 30s south.

Widespread light precipitation will move in from the southwest, reaching Manistee as early as 10 PM tonight. Embedded bands of moderate to heavy precip will be likely Saturday morning, as the elevated boundary and favorable jet dynamics reach northern MI. There are still some slight disagreements on exact timing of the heaviest precipitation, with the two main windows being either during the predawn hours (lingering into mid morning) or the heaviest occurring after sunrise and through the morning hours. No matter when, freezing rain will be likely for locations along and north of M-32. Interior locations along M-72 will have chances for freezing rain, and southern locations as well as other coastal areas should see mostly rain. A stationary front existing near southern MI today will keep above freezing temperatures over the southern half of the L.P. This is farther north than the previous event this week, and should add confidence to temperatures remaining near to slightly above freezing for south of M-72. Strengthening east winds during Saturday morning (gusts up to 35 mph) will work to reinforce cooler air, however the airmass to the northeast of Lk Huron will be slightly more mild (center of the high is slightly weaker and farther north in CAN). CAMs are picking up on both of these factors, and keeping surface temperatures more mild for these coastal communities and southern areas. M-72 is in the gray area, where local spots could see a large enough window of freezing rain for some accumulations up to a tenth of an inch. Areas along M-32 and to the bridge have better chances of seeing a longer duration of freezing rain, which will increase confidence for a swath of a tenth or two of ice. There are still chances for some locations in the higher terrain and over Presque Isle/Cheboygan counties to remain below freezing for longer, and result in up to a quarter or slightly more of ice.

North of the bridge, the path of the upper closed low could place eastern upper in a more favorable location for slightly more QPF than northern lower. The surface cyclone track also doesn't take the warm front north enough, leading to increasing chances for below freezing temperature to linger much of the day on Saturday. This results in higher chances for ice accumulations to reach or exceed a quarter of an inch here, which would lead to impacts such as power outages.

By late morning or early afternoon on Saturday, most guidance agrees that a dry slot will arrive, which will end the widespread moderate precipitation. Brief warming of temperatures will be seen as the surface cyclone tracks over head Sunday late afternoon and evening, however below freezing temperatures will quickly move in late Saturday night into early Sunday as the closed low moves in. Colder and drier lower level temps will allow for some lake effect showers, which will linger into Saturday night.

With multiple rounds of widespread QPE of a couple inches, a few rivers are forecasted to see rises into flood stage. The Manistee River and the Rifle River are already in minor flood stage, and are forecasted to remain here until Tuesday and Sunday respectively. See the flood warnings for more information.

Long wave upper troughing will establish over the northern plains and Great Lakes region starting Sunday, which will keep temperatures below normal leading into early next week. A few shortwaves will bring some moisture and brief snow chances, which could result in some accumulating snow for spots.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

IFR to LIFR cigs are common this morning, with plenty of low- level moisture lingering. Some -DZ is also common. APN is MVFR. Do expect a bit of improvement in some areas, especially this afternoon, to an IFR/MVFR mix. Conditions may improve to VFR in spots early tonight, but that will be temporary, with precip redeveloping overnight. That will be RA at TVC/MBL/APN, but FZRA (again) at PLN/CIU.

Westerly breezes most of today. East winds develop and increase late tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.