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KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze conditions (again) tonight.

- Rain moves across northern Michigan Tuesday/continuing showers Wednesday. Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Warming trend for week's end though tempered by rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Persistent blocking ridge over the Atlantic basin starting to break down...allowing persistent long wave troughing over eastern North America to finally give way wit short wave ridging extending from the southwestern U.S. into the northern Plains and Prairie provinces of Canada (though there is short wave troughing on its heels moving out of Saskatchewan). Low level thermal troughing hanging over the Great Lakes (-7C 850mb temperature at APX this morning) but strong warm advection ongoing across the northern/central Plains and pushing into the Midwest. At the surface broad 1028mb height centered over the upper Midwest/ upper Great Lakes; weak frontal boundary extends from Lake Erie west across Illinois/northern Missouri/southern Nebraska with a 1020mb frontal wave along the Illinois/Indiana border. Lee side low/Alberta Clipper associated with upstream short wave trough moving into Saskatchewan.

Upstream short wave trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes by Wednesday in response to sharpening ridge axis along the spine of the Rockies. This ridge advances east and nudges short wave trough into the lower Great Lakes and east coast Thursday. Another short wave trough appears in the offing for Saturday...but at the very least the trend is toward a more zone/Pacific dominant (read: warmer) pattern by the weekend. Upper Great Lakes surface high moves into the lower Lakes tonight...as Alberta Clipper moves into the upper Midwest. This low is forecast to occlude prior to crossing Michigan Tuesday night...with colder cyclonic flow wrapping across Michigan Wednesday. High pressure builds in Thursday along with short wave ridging...followed by stronger southerly return flow Friday. Probably looking at a cold frontal passage Saturday though how cold remains to be seen...but there will be chances for rain through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Frost/freeze conditions (again) tonight: Unlike last night...best cooling conditions expected during the first half of tonight once diurnal clouds thin (and leftover cloud debris hanging around the subsidence inversion base especially across eastern Upper where cloud cover is pretty extensive). Initial cooling should be best across interior northern Lower where temperature/dew point spreads are highest...and some areas struggling to get out of the mid 40s. Dew points are higher along the lakeshores where the lake breeze is doing its thing. Clouds/winds will be increasing during the early morning hours which should put a brake on falling temperatures...but lows in the 25-30 degree range probably along/west of the US-131 corridor so a Freeze Warning will be issued for these areas...with a Frost Advisory for Manistee/Benzie/Leelanau counties where temperatures are expected to climb after midnight.

Rain moves across northern Michigan Tuesday/continuing showers Wednesday. Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday: Anticipating a warm advection rain band to push into the forecast area from the west starting later Tuesday morning; decent difluence aloft and a modest precipitable water axis. There may be a break in the initial rain later in the afternoon but precipitation may become more showery/convective later in the day with arrival of stronger dynamic forcing and low level theta-e axis with forecast soundings showing a bit of a MAUL-ish look in the mid levels (or at least convectively unstable). As the clipper departs moisture wrapping around the backside of the system will keep showery weather in the forecast at least through Wednesday. Consensus forecast wants to dry things out Wednesday night but not so certain on that yet so have lingered PoPs into Wednesday evening east of I-75. Will be breezy both ahead of the system Tuesday (south/southeast gusts 20-30+mph)...and on the backside Wednesday from the northwest.

Warming trend for week's end though tempered by rain chances: Temperatures finally back into the 60s for Thursday/Friday... Saturday/Sunday could be back in the 70s but there is a huge amount of spread in the guidance regarding temperatures (nearly 30 degrees) and precipitation chances. If it can stay dry this weekend then the potential is certainly there.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 801 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist across northern Michigan through Tuesday morning. Clear skies are in store for the first half of tonight before mid/high cloud begins to spread from west to east by early Tuesday morning. Rain showers work into western parts of the area by mid to late morning, initially struggling to reach the ground with dry low-level air in place. Regardless, increasing saturation with time is expected to drop CIGs to IFR across the eastern U.P. and much of northern lower by mid afternoon Tuesday. CIGs may stay MVFR across southern portions of the area (including TVC/MBL). Weak/calm winds tonight increase out of the south-southeast Tuesday morning. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-30 kts are expected late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Occasional gusts over 30 kts will be possible.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-099. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ020-025-031. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.