textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms progress across the region today through Saturday.

-High pressure builds across the midwest and supports quiet weather through midweek next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1101 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

12Z surface analysis shows a 1006mb low centered along the Iowa/Minnesota border with a warm front extending southeast roughly parallel to the Mississippi River in eastern Missouri. A cold front lies to the north of Lake Superior and into northern Minnesota... don't think this front is part of the low over Iowa as there is a narrow band of lower theta-e air wrapping into the north side of the cyclone over southern Wisconsin/southern Minnesota (and marks the eastern/northern edge of the instability gradient). Several high pressure centers across the Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic with a 1016mb high center over southern Lower Michigan. Short wave trough rolling into the upper Midwest per water vapor imagery with broadly difluent flow ahead of it...supporting an elongated area of showers/ thunderstorms from southern Minnesota southward along the Mississippi River into Missouri. More widespread deformation rain band across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin around the northern side of the mid level cyclone over southwest Minnesota. Narrow axis of precipitable water values at or above 2.00 inches spans the Mississippi Valley and wrapping around the upstream low. 12Z APX sounding does shows some elevated instability already in place...600J/kg MUCAPE with minimal CINH. Some convection popped earlier in the vicinity of Green Bay...otherwise skies were mostly sunny across most of the forecast area at mid morning...some thicker Ac spreading across Lake Michigan and some St/fog along upper portions of the St. Mary's River into the Soo. Lots of debris Ci arriving from upstream in anticyclonic upper level flow ahead of the Midwest short wave trough.

Will be watching for shower/thunderstorm development as the afternoon wears on...focusing on colliding lake breezes across eastern Upper as well as northeast Lower the Lake Huron breeze. But may also see an eastward expansion of activity over northwest Wisconsin/far western Upper later today with increased influence/ better forcing from approaching short wave trough (mainly north of the M-72 corridor).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Split flow pattern continues to occupy North America today with northerly flow and embedded waves over Canada while weak subtropical flow remains over the mid U.S. Embedded shortwave troughing currently over Minnesota will dig and deepen this afternoon as it progresses over the Southern Ohio Valley by this weekend. Subsequent surface low pressure will bring rounds of showers and storms today through Saturday before moving northeast this Sunday.

Conditions remain mostly benign for the remainder of the forecast period as deepening shortwave troughing will drop H8 temperatures into the low teens and surface temperatures into the 70s this Saturday and Sunday. Aforementioned upstream broad midlevel ridging over the mid/southern U.S. will strengthen and extend its axis through the Great Lakes Region early next week. This pattern will support surface high pressure and overall quiet weather through midweek next week. Long-range ensembles depict midlevel closed low pressure currently over the Alaskan Bay progressing downstream and lifting across the American/Canadian Plains by midweek next week. Chances of precipitation will likely return to the forecast around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, but the latest guidance continues to keep highest probabilities of QPF low.

Forecast Details:

Today and Saturday: The only real active weather for the next several days remains today and Saturday, with the aforementioned surface low pressure developing over the Dakotas and digging across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The main axis of precipitation expected to impact the CWA will be this evening/tonight as moisture extends northeast into Northern Quebec. While convective-driven rainfall is expected to spread across Eastern Upper, light stratiform rainfall will occupy most of Northern Lower. While most of Northern Lower can expect rainfall totals between a tenth to half an inch, the strongest convection remaining north of the bridge will support much higher totals. Model soundings across Mackinac and Chippewa Counties depict long skinny CAPE, PWATs close to 2 and low cloud layer shear to support training storms to deliver event totals of two to three plus inches by Saturday night.

Sunday through Thursday: Subsidence aloft will be supported by the previously mentioned ridging pattern this Sunday through Wednesday. Surface high pressure begins to build across the Midwest, with climatologically cool temperatures on Sunday followed by highs slowly returning to near normal for late July/early August. No precipitation chances are in the forecast until the end of the long- term forecast as ensembles depict large-scale troughing lifting through the Central Plains midweek next week. Probabilities of QPF remain low in the forecast at this time, with the highest likelihood remaining less than a quarter inch for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Any lingering MVFR CIGs and fog at CIU should dissipate fairly quick with primarily VFR expected today. An isolated shower/storm becomes possible at some terminals this afternoon, with increasing shower chances this evening through tonight. Eventually, lower CIGs expected to accompany these showers by later tonight. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.