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KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy, breezy, and cooler...with lake effect rain and snow showers possible tonight into Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 404 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Upper low over the Upper Midwest beginning to open up...as PV tracks into Hudson Bay to our north, allowing cold air aloft to spill southward into Ontario...and 100kt upper jet across the southern US propels another PV maxima eastward into the central Plains; no time for a break out west as another strong PV punches into the PacNW thanks to strong Pacific flow. Dry slot swept through the region last evening (cold front stretching from the eastern shore of Lake Superior down into Lake Huron as of 5z)...shunting warmer air and deepest moisture (pwats around or above 1.5in) eastward, though a plume of moisture remains trapped beneath the 700mb low/trowal over the Upper MS Valley to our west. Plume of cooler air sneaking in...850mb temps falling below 5C attm; much cooler air to our north over Ontario as noted above...where 850mb temps fall into the -5C and colder range. North to northeast low-level trajectories across Ontario into the Upper Midwest suggest low-level cold advection will continue...and this is reflected at the surface by a cold front stretching from Hudson Bay toward western Lake Superior...as 1024mb surface high takes over the Canadian Prairie provinces. Primary blob of convection associated with the cold front has exited our area...but some additional showers have moved in in the wake of the first cold front as a little more moisture works in.

Trough to our west will begin to track northeast as energy to our north digs down into the back of the trough again tonight into Friday. This should both serve to punt the bulk of the moisture out...but also drop much colder air into the region, which should kick the lake machine into gear. More energy transits the flow out west, with ridging into Canada to our west; high pressure will try to build in Friday into Saturday, but troughing will do its best to hold on across the Great Lakes (a taste of things to come). Upstream niblet will make its way into the region Saturday as additional northern stream energy passes by going into Sunday; the bulk of this system attm appears to remain to our east. Only a brief break Sunday night into Monday before another system crashes in from the Canadian Prairies, with troughing trying to hang on over our area into Wednesday as the upstream flow amplifies again. Attm, signals point toward troughing trying to settle into the eastern US for the latter half of the week next week, with ridging over the west/central US. This idea suggests warmth and high pressure over the central US.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Breezy today/tonight...Tightening pressure gradient between high pressure over Canada and departing low pressure will result in breezy north to northeast flow entering the scene later this afternoon into tonight; this should linger into much of Friday as the trough ends up closing off to our southeast. Pressure gradient will support sustained winds in the realm of 15-20kts across the EUP, perhaps into the tip of the Mitt region going into the afternoon. North to northeast winds could channel stronger flow into Traverse City as well as north facing points down the coasts. Expect a period of 25-35kt gusts late in the day into the overnight...though it appears the low-level jet may attempt to wane in strength Thursday night and could dial back gust potential quicker than expected. Still, with better fetch and perhaps a slight bit of isallobaric influences...think there will be a period of gales this evening, which would most likely be on northern Lake MI, particularly along the NW Coast, with less certainty for Whitefish Bay. Have opted to follow suit with GRR and upgrade to Gale warnings for the Lake MI zones this afternoon through Friday morning.

Rain transitions to lake effect showers (snow overnight?)...Showers to continue today with that lobe of still anomalous (though not quite as anomalous as what we have just seen) moisture pivoting back in. With the cooler air sweeting in, appears there will be a fairly robust low-level fgen response with the front sweeping across the area this afternoon; additionally, there are signals for some more robust fgen aloft near and north of the surface low this afternoon/evening as colder air floods southward on northerly flow, which should also enhance QPF potential, though it is possible this may only impact the EUP, and at that, perhaps only a portion...as it may remain mostly to our east. At the same time, by late afternoon, temps aloft should be cold enough to support overlake instability generation over the EUP, spreading southward with time...resulting in lake enhancement to ongoing synoptic-driven activity through Thursday night and perhaps even into Friday, particularly over the EUP where deeper synoptic moisture could hold on north of the closed low expected to develop over southern MI. This should slowly drift southeastward with time Friday into Friday night as the upper low tries to exit, and this will allow activity to spread southward into northeast Lower MI in particular, though northerly flow suggests activity downwind of Grand Traverse Bay as well. Would not be entirely surprised if lake-based activity hung on a bit into Saturday as well, as 925mb temps should remain sufficient for overlake instability to continue in the presence of some low-level moisture.

P-type concerns do appear to come into play tonight...as temperatures fall into the 30s...and temps aloft fall below -5C and become more supportive of the presence of ice nuclei, though this latter idea may not take place till sometime after 5-6z or so. Think the best shot at snow will be over the EUP, where the colder air should be...but the interior higher terrain of northern Lower should have a shot as well, though would not be surprised if a few flakes tried to mix in elsewhere Thursday night into Friday morning. The threat for snow could actually hang on into the daytime hours Friday as we will be much colder, with high temps struggling to get out of the lower 40s. For now, do not have snowfall accumulations in the grids...and trying to figure out if it will stick given the recent warmth and soil temps still in the upper 50s or so. However...suppose it wouldn't be impossible for some beefier bands to lead to some sloppy accumulations (again, in those coldest spots across the Yoop and the higher terrain of interior northern Lower).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Showers continue today with primarily MVFR cigs/visbys but could drop to IFR in more vigorous activity, esp this afternoon/tonight. SW winds 10-15kt gust 20-25kt this morning and will switch to W and then NW and N within a few hours this afternoon (generally 19-23z for most sites, but closer to 23-03z at APN) with a cold front. Gusts 20-30kts expected, but could reach 35kts this afternoon/evening. RA could mix with SN after 0-3z tonight, esp for CIU; less confidence elsewhere.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EST this evening for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ322.