textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain ends this evening

- Frost and freeze concerns both Friday night and Monday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

All eyes currently focused on tropical enhanced moisture plume rotating across lower Michigan. Combination of southeast dropping cold front and rather intense upper jet dynamics working over this moisture axis, resulting in rather widespread light to moderate rain across a good portion of lower Michigan. Post cold front drying has kept eastern Michigan largely dry. Despite the widespread rain and clouds, still relatively mild out there...with current readings mostly in the 60s.

Overhead cold front will continue to work off to the southeast, taking the rain along with it this evening. Expansive area of high pressure will follow, building across the Northwoods to kick off the weekend. Next northern stream wave set to visit the area later Saturday into Sunday, bringing our next chance for some showers.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Primary focus centers on overnight temperature trends Friday night. Secondary focus on cloud and shower trends.

Details:

Rain will end from northwest to southeast this evening as the cold front clears the area. High pressure to follow, although will need to watch for a few lake enhanced showers off eastern Lake Superior Friday as northern stream wave passes across the big lake. Conceptually, Friday night is shaping up to be a chilly one as high pressure centers overhead...bringing clear skies and light/calm winds. Only concern is the wet soil conditions preventing ideal radiation cooling conditions. Still, thinking at least widespread frost producing temperatures down into the 30s are likely away from the big waters...with some of our typical ice box locations perhaps making a run into the upper 20s. Much too early for any specific headlines, but will continue to highlight this concern in our graphics. Just about typical early October weather for this weekend, with near normal temperatures and fast moving relatively moisture starved wave bringing additional shower chances Saturday night into Sunday. Not a whole lot to talk about heading into next week with a northern stream flow regime that will be completely detached from any tropical moisture connection. Passing waves within that northern stream will likely bring some mid to late week shower chances, but definitely not seeing any widespread rain events at this time. Cool surge of temperatures behind Sunday's departing wave, likely producing another round of sub-freezing temperatures Monday night. Otherwise, looking at temperatures that will run well within the range of what is considered normal heading through the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Rain is departing ne lower MI this evening, just ahead of a cold front. A period of MVFR cigs is occurring near the front this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the rest of the forecast. Nw winds kick in this evening, and will be breezy at times into Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321.