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KEY MESSAGES

- Extended period of mild temperatures beginning Friday and extending into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dry conditions are anticipated throughout the day today, although suppose a few stubborn flurries could, in theory, linger early this morning. None of that changes the increasingly hostile conditions through the day with subtle height rises aloft and more importantly, lowering inversion heights/instability/moisture. Thus, dry conditions will prevail today.

Heights continue to rise on Friday, marking the start of a mild stretch of weather across northern MI. That being said, quick moving short wave sandwiched in between the above normal heights across the Upper Midwest and a retrograding upper low across western portions of Quebec will either clip, or move just to the east of, northern Michigan. Current forecast has pretty low pops across eastern upper, but quick look at the ENS probs (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) for > 0.01" of precip on Friday suggests at least a chance for some wet snow showers, mainly across eastern upper. Should not be impactful but something to fine tune moving forward.

Another short wave will move in the vicinity of the Great Lakes region during the second half of the weekend, but this feature looks moisture starved and/or possibly displaced a little too far north for any modest precip. More robust energy looks to eject out of the Desert Southwest mid next week with the potential for widespread precipitation across northern Michigan. In fact, current ENS guidance has a low potential (~10-40%) for 0.5" of liquid or more during this time.

Despite a few minor perturbations within the flow, the overall theme this weekend into early next week will be for increasing heights aloft, low level wind fields with a more southerly component, and significant troughing across the west coast. Thus, mild temperatures are expected across northern Michigan with highs in the 30s and 40s Friday through at least early-mid next week.

River flood concerns due to ice jams on the table to some degree, especially if high temps rise into the 40s with ice jams/releases possible. In addition, if healthy rain falls on top of a ripe snow pack, river rises would be expected as well. Quick glance at the HEFS 10 Day River Level Probs does show at least some potential for rises across area rivers (prob due to the potential for rain on snow melt). Anyhow, just something to monitor going forward.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 607 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light lake effect snow across northwest lower is expected to diminish over the next several hours, ending by late morning. MVFR CIGs are expected to hang over TVC and MBL for a similar timeframe while VFR conditions persist at other northern Michigan TAF sites through the issuance period. Otherwise, northwest winds between 5-10 kts are expected through this afternoon before going calm tonight as high pressure builds overhead.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.