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KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering snow tonight into Sunday...patchy freezing drizzle?

- Cold Monday night...

- Generally active weather likely from mid to late week...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 413 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

120 to 140+kt upper jet stretches from the Desert SW to the Mid- Atlantic...separating warm, moist air from drier and cooler air across the bulk of the central US. North of this...cooler air seeping into the OH Valley amid nebulous troughing across the central US into central Canada. Surface troughing stretches from a PV maxima in Manitoba...southeastward into Lake Huron and off the New England coast; deformation axis overhead this morning between surface high to our north (and subsequent easterly flow) and some semblance of high pressure to our south over the OH Valley/Upper Midwest. Some deeper moisture trapped beneath this (12z APX RAOB with a pwat of 0.37, which is on the high end of climo for this time of year here)...and subsequently, a swath of snow from the Keweenaw to Saginaw Bay this morning...with additional snowfall over northern Lower Michigan.

Deformation axis to stretch out in the vicinity of the M-32 corridor through the rest of today into tonight, wringing out what's left of deeper moisture in the region...as PV maxima tracks across southern Michigan from IA...and troughing tries to close off over the region Sunday. Expect increasingly N flow Sunday into Monday as high pressure slowly builds eastward across the central continent...with support for lake effect snow showers to wrap up the weekend. Beyond this...ridging builds in to start the work week, with cold surface high likely in play till Tuesday...when warm advection starts to develop to our west ahead of the next clipper system expected to track across the US-Canadian border. Current expectation is for this system to track through the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday...leaving a baroclinic zone for additional energy to ride along for Thursday into Friday...though track of this latter system remains quite unclear attm. Beyond this...signals point toward broad troughing overtaking the central and eastern continent again...which could certainly keep things active going into the end of the week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Snow lingers tonight into Sunday... Expect continued deformation band snows to hang out across the Tip of the Mitt into perhaps Mackinac County into tonight...but do expect the band and attendant moisture to pivot back around to the west with time...ultimately focusing more toward the Lake MI coast, esp Leelanau County southward. Overlake instability still on the marginal order till Sunday afternoon as temps aloft finally start to cool...though have concerns we will start to strip out better moisture as well, with guidance soundings signaling a dry layer in the mid-levels developing at some point...perhaps as early as prior to daybreak Sunday, and particularly midday and beyond as drier air oozes in on strengthening northerly flow. This idea could a) lead to some patchy freezing drizzle, and/or b) reduce snowfall totals as it would likely drop SLRs. Overall, not anticipating too much...just a couple inches tonight, and another couple inches Sunday during the day...though not impossible some localized higher amounts develop near the immediate coastlines of Lakes Michigan and Huron (esp Lake Michigan) where lake enhancement could come into play. NNW winds should pick up during the day Sunday which could lead to some blowing/drifting concerns with any of the newer, lighter snow that falls tonight/Sunday.

Cold Monday night...Ridging building overhead later Monday into Monday night supports the idea of high pressure trying to overtake the region...and with diminishing winds, could certainly lead to some drainage flow out of Canada into the eastern UP...and would need to keep an eye on this for some sub-zero lows to sneak in...though it's possible we may start to see higher clouds sneak in from the west as early as Monday night, which could limit the amount of cooling that takes place.

Midweek Clipper...warm advection impacts ahead of the clipper should move in during the day Tuesday. Signals for deeper moisture again (probably mostly Pacific-based...though we could tap some of the Gulf with surface high slipping off toward the SE US) combined with signals for good synoptic forcing in the vicinity suggest a reasonable shot at accumulating snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will certainly need to keep an eye on this as it could be a bit more on the impactful side, particularly with some signals for winds to pick up ahead of the surface low.

Continued Wintry Weather Late Week?...Expectation is for the Tuesday clipper to drop a BCZ somewhere across the eastern US, with additional energy zipping through the flow to develop a surface low along the boundary. Attm...signals point toward this system remaining largely to our south and east. However, additional energy digging into the longwave trough over central Canada could certainly be of concern for us...and will need to keep an eye on this, too, as we go forward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 446 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Looking at a combination of MVFR to IFR conditions from periods of light snow and low clouds through the period. Snow will impact the northern lower taf locations, with any accumulations remaining minor. May see some freezing drizzle mix in at times as well. Light winds tonight become a bit gusty out of the northwest by Sunday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ016>018- 020>024-098-099. MARINE...None.