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KEY MESSAGES

- Times of heavier snow showers will linger near the western Leelanau coast down to Manistee today and tonight, resulting in low visibilities and 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts

- Very cold conditions settle in leading to low temperatures tonight dropping below 0 for most locations. Coldest spots could dip down to -20F

- A warming trend begins Saturday, with temperatures reaching into the 20s by Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Upper closed low is currently sliding over Ontario CAN this morning, as a cold front stalls over northern MI. Generally light, north winds reside over the area this morning with a handful of sites along the coast reporting gusts up to 10 to 20 mph. Satellite is showing clearing skies over the interior areas of eastern upper and northern lower, which is allowing temperatures to fall below 0F. Temperatures will continue to fall as the cooler air settles in this morning. With a stalled boundary over northern lower, winds show and areas of light convergence near Grand Traverse Bay, and with the open waters over Lk MI upwind, lake effect snow showers are falling from Leelanau county down to Houghton Lake. Although the 00Z KAPX RAOB depicts a very shallow DGZ near the surface, warmer temperatures right near the coast are likely altering this somewhat and allowing for slightly larger flakes. With the cold air tonight, snow will quickly turn to fine powder the more inland/east one drives.

As the upper low continues to the SE today, colder low level air will become reinforced and push west.. This will move the snow showers towards the coast of Leelanau, Benzie, and Manistee counties around mid morning. As some of this depends on how cold we get this morning, if interior temperatures do remain a little "warmer" than thought that could slow the progression of the snow to these coastal areas. In any case, these snow showers will ultimately become dependent on a land breeze boundary today. Most guidance depict this boundary residing off the coast, but some show it being close enough to parts of Leelanau and Benzie county to continue snow showers through much of today and into tonight. This will likely be a very localized area, hugging the coastline.. with times of light snow meandering back inland from time to time. Since this cold airmass will be in place, the snow characteristics will likely be very fine (like what we have been seeing).. Meaning even light snow could result in low visibilities. As far as snow amounts, most places west of I-75 and near Grand Traverse Bay or south will see around 1 to 2 inches. The Manitous and areas directly along the coast could see a little more, possibly +4 inches today and tonight.

Winds will generally be light over land, with coastal areas possibly seeing times of gusts up to 15 mph today. Temperatures will warm into the single digits to low teens today.

Tonight, light north to northeast winds truly allow the colder air to settle in. Parts of northern lower will see a decent window of clearing as well, setting the stage nicely for radiational cooling and temperatures to tank. Coldest spots could reach -25F, with most of the area seeing overnight lows reaching at least -15F to -5F. Another cold weather advisory will likely be needed for tonight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday, as the upper closed low exits but before upper heights start to increase, some mid to high level moisture will move in from the northeast. This added moisture will help spark up some light snow, with the help of existing mesoscale features likely to be in place from land breeze boundaries. An uptick in north to northeast winds could also be seen Friday over the waters as this final push occurs. Something to watch for Friday will be an area of convergence near Manistee/Benzie/Leelanau counties.

Drier air will settle in once again late Saturday into Sunday, resulting in mostly clear skies and potentially some cold overnight temperatures (not as cold as tonight).

Upper ridging over the US west will not full break down in this forecast cycle, but will be beaten down by a few upper shortwaves. As a result surface cyclones begin to track to our north Sunday, allowing southwest winds to return milder air to northern MI. High temperatures are forecasted to reach into the 20s Sunday under partly cloudy skies. Widespread light to moderate snow in the warm sector will move in late Sunday into Monday. Colder air will move in behind the widespread snow, however winds turn SW quickly ahead of the next low to track to the north of the area. To summarize the forecast next week; more average temperatures return with widespread snow chances here and there. Ice coverage should be fairly expansive by next week as well, resulting in less confidence for high snow accumulations due to lake effect (especially if the lows track to the north and keep the tight gradients/strong winds away from the area).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 641 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Cold front exiting to the south this evening. IFR conditions at times TVC/MBL/CIU this evening, tending to improve tonight as drier air moves in. Otherwise a mix of VFR to MVFR. Winds becoming north tonight, and lighter late tonight into Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-032>036-086>088-095>097-099. MARINE...None.