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KEY MESSAGES

-Shower/storm chances continue at various times through Friday night. Locally heavy rain and a stronger storm or two possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing progressing over the eastern Great Lakes and southeast Canada will continue to slowly trek east this afternoon through Friday. The associated ~1008 mb surface low pressure centered over western Quebec will also weaken and follow suit to the east through this time. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify across the middle of the country late this week and hold through the holiday weekend, building surface high pressure across Hudson Bay/Ontario that will nose down into the Great Lakes by Saturday/ Sunday. Ridging may finally begin to fold overtop of the Great Lakes region heading into the middle of next week as troughing works across the west from the Pacific coast.

Forecast Details: Showers/storms continue to percolate across southern reaches of the forecast area into mid-Michigan early this afternoon. Not a ton of change to this through early evening with the highest PoPs focused near and south of M-72. While severe weather doesn't appear to be a glaring threat, suppose there's enough support there for a low chance of a stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds -- lining up well with SPC's latest D1 outlook. Primary concern continues to be locally heavy rainfall. Areas that received 1-3.5"+ of rain over the last several hours (far southwestern portions of the CWA) will be most susceptible to potential localized flooding concerns with any additional locally heavy downpours.

Expecting a break in shower/storm coverage mid-late evening, but latest trends showing increased support for additional upstream showers/storms to make inroads across parts of northern Michigan tonight into Friday morning. While lots of uncertainty riddles this time frame (partially hinging on how this afternoon/evening shake out across the broader region), think that if precip is able to survive into northern Michigan later tonight that'll it'll be primary a locally heavy rain threat rather than a severe weather threat. Probabilities for 1"+ of rain have increased over the last several forecast cycles with even some low probabilities for 2"+ noted (these higher end chances maximized south of APX's CWA).

While some shower/storm chances will linger Friday into Friday evening, a general drying trend is anticipated heading into the holiday weekend. Mostly sunny skies and largely precip-free conditions anticipated Saturday - Monday with daily high temperatures near to several degrees above early September normals. Chances for a return to more active conditions look to hold off until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Afternoon showers/storms focused at MBL and grazing TVC at times. The remainder of the forecast area largely precipication-free under VFR conditions through this evening. Another wave of showers and embedded thunderstorms possible later tonight into early Friday morning followed by expected gradual improvement.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.