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KEY MESSAGES

- Diurnal rain showers today.

- Widespread freeze tonight.

- Next chance for rain Tuesday into Wednesday; milder late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper trough that has plagued northern MI this early May continues to spin off to the northeast across Ontario - Quebec today, although finally moving northeast with time and eventually loosening its grip on the region. Weather pattern today still resonates with this feature, however, with cool temps aloft and short wave energy on the southern periphery of the main trough. Consequently, despite the meager moisture, steep 0-3KM lapse rates and the aforementioned short wave will result in diurnal showers today, occasional graupel possible within the more robust low topped convection. Juxtaposition of best non-zero instability and short wave energy aided lift looks to be across the Tip of the Mitt into portions of NE Lower and then E Upper as well. That being said, noting other areas of northern and northwest lower MI may have non-zero instability. Some of the PROBS for >0.01" of rain are more expansive than the deterministic guidance. Thus, would not be surprised for shower coverage to be a little more than what ultimately goes into the POP forecast. Additionally, given the steep lapse rates and relatively low wet bulbs, a few wet snow flakes/showers mixing in certainly not out of the question.

As the short wave moves through this evening, high pressure builds down from the northwest, impinging on northern MI. Consequently, cold temperatures are expected tonight, thanks to clearing skies and light winds as well. A widespread freeze is anticipated tonight with much of northern lower seeing temperatures <32F for a number of hours. Additional frost freeze concerns likely Monday night, before a milder/warmer trend (late week and beyond) likely evacuates these concerns for a while.

Next piece of energy crashes into British Columbia/Washington this evening and rides over top of a potent upper high/heat dome across the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West (90s and 100s for our friends in the Desert Southwest). This feature will move southeast into the Upper Midwest and eventually northern MI later Tuesday into Wednesday. Initial blossoming of precipitation likely Tuesday afternoon and evening with the initial DPVA and WAA of the incoming upper low. Then subtle energy on the back edge of the main upper low lingers producing showery activity through the day on Wednesday. General consensus from guidance is the potential for ~0.25"-0.50" of rain with this event, with more refinement in the coming shifts, especially since this feature has trended north for several model runs now (in some guidance more than others). Winds will become breezy as well as pressure gradient tightens not only on Tuesday with southerly winds but Wednesday as well as the system moves east and winds shift more to the northwest.

All signs continue to point to a warmer period of weather late week and beyond with building heights across the Western and Central CONUS. For instance, LREF probs for >65F max temps increase significantly Friday into next weekend across northern lower MI. That being said, within the ENS guidance there is some day to day variability so we'll have to iron out the details moving forward. Our current forecast suggests highs in the mid to upper 60s to near 70 on Friday with 70s this weekend. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions under some higher based cumulus today. Will likely see a few showers (mixed with graupel/snow?) fall out of this cu field today...especially at KCIU and KAPN. However, not expecting any significant impacts from these showers. Skies become mostly clear tonight. Gusty west-northwest winds develop today, with winds becoming light tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016-017- 021>023-025>029-031>035-041-099. Freeze Watch from this evening through Monday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ018-020-024- 030-036-042. MARINE...None.