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KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy, windy, and cooler temperatures expected later Thursday into Friday.

- Milder second half of the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc high pressure begins to nose in from the west today and tonight due to upstream ridging aloft. Thus, dry conditions will be more common than not, although with the lingering low level moisture would not be entirely surprised to patchy drizzle early, mainly near Lake Michigan. That being said, probably not going to inject any officially in the forecast due to the spotty nature, if it happens at all. Northwest winds continue through the day today as well, as we remain socked in with clouds. Does not look like a huge signal for fog tonight either with high pressure shifting off to the northeast of N MI across the Canadian Shield and the potential for non-zero sfc winds, but we'll see about that going forward. Although relatively uneventful today and tonight, we can sniff the next weather system(s) upstream.

By Thursday, two distinct features upstream will take aim at northern MI. The first feature is an upper low emerging out of the Southwest and Central Plains, that slowly moves northeast with time on Thursday while weakening. Another more robust feature will be diving out of Sask Canada down into the Upper Midwest and eventually Great Lakes region. Southern stream piece of energy gets absorbed into the more robust feature coming out of Canada, which will inject some decent moisture into northern Michigan (~1.0-1.4" PWATs). With the combined lift from the stout upper trough to the northwest and the sfc reflection from the upper low to the southwest coupled with this moisture, a steady and healthy rain is upon northern Michigan, beneficial for areas within D1/D2 drought like the E UP. Current guidance shows the potential for 0.50-1.0" of rain generally, with ~40-70% chance for 0.50" of rain or more across a chunk of our area.

As the two pieces of upper level energy merge/phase and the jet stream aloft intensifies, the sfc reflection will follow suit off to our east. Thus, pressure gradient will increase through the day on Friday with 30 to 40 knot H850 winds overspreading the area late. Little less impressive signal compared to yesterday, due to the way the energies phase and location/timing of the low level jet, but windy conditions are still expected on Friday, 30 to 40 mph certainly still possible, potential for higher near the Lake Michigan shoreline. We'll see how this trends in the coming days.

Precipitation chances largely relinquish through the weekend and into next week as heights fill back in across northern Michigan and temperatures turn milder (60s again). Brief piece of energy well to the north across Canada beats the ridging down to some degree late weekend into early next week. The only consequence for northern Michigan will be an increased pressure gradient due to a stout low pressure system to the north. Thus, an increase in winds can be expected once more, looks like mainly Sunday at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas of stratus/fog cover much of northern MI, and that is unlikely to change into well into Wednesday. Places that bust out of the low clouds (like MBL earlier) are likely to see some fog form. That said, MVFR conditions are already becoming more common than IFR, and that trend continues Wednesday. Some VFR conditions by evening. Light-ish nw breezes continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.