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KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return for this weekend into next week.

- Extended period of unsettled weather this weekend into the middle of next week with several rounds of showers and storms possible. Locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The upper flow flattens out over the next several days as the southeast ridge expands eastward and shortwave energy ejects out of a deepening Pacific northwest trough. Warm air advection ramps up this weekend with increasing PWATs, likely bringing unsettled weather back into the Great Lakes. Several shortwaves will ride along a quasi-stationary boundary layed out across the area, resulting in several rounds of precipitation potential. Temperatures will be on the way up, with above normal readings likely over the weekend into next week as the thermal ridge expands north and east.

Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week as developing stronger warm air advection brings deeper moisture into the Great Lakes. This will eventually bring PWATs of 200% of normal to the northern Great Lakes with rounds of showers/storms moving across the area. Saturday remains questionable as to how dry (or wet) it will be, as some models initially take the heaviest precipitation south/west of our area, as the convection follows the thickness graident. The current thinking will have shower/storm chances increasing north/west on Saturday afternoon, with higher POPS Saturday night into Sunday. This unsettled pattern will continue into the first half of next week, as shortwave energy ejects out of the deepening western trough, sliding along the northern periphery of the upper ridge and across the Great Lakes. This set up has some classic signatures for heavy rain potential with a quasi- stationary boundary layed out across the Great Lakes, deep moisture and favorable kinematics.

With regard to temperatures, an expanding thermal ridge will bring summer heat and humidity back into the Great Lakes as we end August and head into September. This may result in highs into the 80s on some days with overnight lows in the 60s. Air conditioning season is not over yet. The main wildcard to temperatures through this time will be clouds and convection.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period, with skies becoming mostly clear tonight...followed by some increasing high/mid clouds and higher based cumulus on Saturday. May even see some light showers fall out of these increasing clouds by later in the afternoon. However, any impact currently looks minimal. Light winds tonight become a bit gusty out of the southwest heading through Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.