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KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds early this afternoon diminish quickly late afternoon/ early evening.

- Accumulating snow returns Saturday into Sunday.

- Temperatures moderate again Monday/Tuesday, before another shot of colder air; periods of active wintry weather continue.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 224 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, surface low pressure is centered over far southwest Quebec and should continue to pretty quickly shift off to the east through the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. Prior to that occurring, backside pressure gradient remains tight with strong winds area-wide for the next couple of hours.

Forecast Details: Primary hazard over the next few hours revolves around strong northwesterly winds, with gusts as high as ~40 mph. The peak of these winds should really be over the next 1-3 hours with a fairly rapid diminishing trend by late afternoon, and even more so through the evening. Nonetheless, scattered power outages already noted across parts of the forecast area and see no reason that additional scattered power outages won't occur through the period of max gusts over the next few hours.

All synoptically driven rain/snow earlier today has cleared stage right through midday/early afternoon with just a bit of light rain/snow lingering across sections of north-central lower. Focus tonight turns to temperature trends. Current expectation is that the bulk of the forecast area falls into the upper 20s to low 30s by 00-04z. Any wet roads or still snow- covered secondary roads that weren't able to fully melt over the last 24-36 hours likely to become very slick. Overnight lows early Saturday morning in the low-mid 20s for most.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 224 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Saturday - Sunday: Attention quickly turns to this weekend with accumulating snow returns across northern MI.

By Saturday morning, amplified troughing expected to be carved across the nation's midsection with two separate pieces of energy to note -- one southern stream over the southern Plains and the more robust making headway across the upper MS Valley. These waves expected to phase to some extent over the Great Lakes by later Saturday night/early Sunday. Widespread light snow expected to spread across northern MI through Saturday morning (may start as a bit of freezing drizzle at the onset) with best forcing to follow through the afternoon/evening, and thus an expected uptick in snowfall intensity/rates. While snow turns more showery overnight, fairly widespread snow showers expected to continue through much of the overnight hours before diminishing in coverage by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Lingering lake effect may continue downwind of Lake Superior/ Michigan into the afternoon.

Given the latest trends on the track of this system with the center of low pressure generally passing over central lower MI/Saginaw Bay/ central Lake Huron, initial southeasterly winds may result in some enhancement at times Saturday/Saturday evening off of Lake Huron into northeast lower and southeast Chip/Mack counties. As low pressure shifts farther east Saturday night, low-level flow turns more west-northwesterly with some enhancement possible over sections of the typical northwest lower snow belts. Winds do become breezy with gusts up to 25 mph at times, mainly the second half of Saturday night through Sunday. While some refinement still anticipated, 24-30 hour snow accumulation Saturday morning through Sunday morning favored to range between 2-3" near Saginaw Bay, 3-6" north and west of there in northern lower, and 2.5 - 4.5" in the eastern U.P. Some of those enhancement areas of northeast and northwest lower mentioned above may see locally higher amounts -- mainly favored for areas east of a line from around Cheboygan to Alpena and in typical west-northwest flow snow belts of NW lower. In coordination with GRR, will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for where confidence is highest in impactful snow amounts Saturday-Saturday night. Certainly possible that later trends may prove to be enough to add areas near Saginaw Bay and the eastern U.P.

Monday - Friday: Periods of active wintry weather look to continue at times through next week as several clipper-like systems make a run at the western Great Lakes.

Initial chances briefly return Sunday night - Monday, especially the northern half of the area as a system well to the north grazes the area. Beyond this wave, temperatures look to rebound back into the 30s during the Monday into Tuesday. However, another more robust wave set to arrive during the day Tuesday into Wednesday with more widespread snow chances -- perhaps lake enhanced at times as temperatures cool on the backside of this system later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another wave with additional snow chances possible toward the very tail end of the long term forecast period into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Flurries/FZDZ possible, esp after 9-12z...but should transition to SN after that. Generally MVFR cigs to become IFR after 12-15z with snow moving in; periods of LIFR possible, esp in the afternoon. Light winds to slowly transition to SE/E and stay there at most sites except MBL/TVC which will transition to W/SW around 19-21z behind a low pressure center; expect winds will increase dramatically and become gusty after this thru remainder of TAF period with continued snow showers. Low confidence in how quickly winds transition elsewhere but watching potential for heavier snow band near APN/PLN or CIU near/after 21-0z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ016>018-022>024-028>030-034>036-097-098. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-099. MARINE...None.