textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Largely dry weather with increasingly warm temperatures through the week.

- Rain chances creep into the picture Thursday.

- Dry Friday before potential for more widespread precip arrives this weekend as a larger system builds into the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Cutoff low over Newfoundland and associated longwave troughing to ease its grip on the region the next couple days as ridging over the plains and associated surface high pressure centered over Wisconsin moves into the region. Ongoing cyclonic flow regime continues to generate some lake induced instability with the 00z APX RAOB showcasing a stubborn low-level saturation layer beneath an inversion at 850mb. With meager low level lapse rates and a lack of saturation reaching into the DGZ, this activity is drizzle at this point. Already seeing evidence of height rises from Plains ridging within the aforementioned RAOB, with drier air aloft building. As subsidence intrudes with the arrival of the surface high to the south, the cessation of lake effect activity is anticipated throughout the day as warmer air aloft stymies lake induced instability plumes. As the surface high moves into southern Ontario / northern Ohio by Monday, ample return flow to build in conjunction with a developing system over the Canadian Prairies reinvigorating a pinched pressure gradient. Result will be the return of well-above normal temperatures and drier conditions through the week amid occasionally breezy conditions. Weak wave to ride this area of quicker flow Thursday before a potentially larger system builds in some time next weekend.

Details:

Noticing a sharp downward trend with ongoing lake induced drizzle across NW lower into north-central lower. Evidence of the incoming high pressure and subsidence aloft already showing its hand. As such, anticipating any lingering drizzle to conclude later tonight, with just some stubborn low-level cloud to hang around through the morning, especially across NW lower where lake influences will hold strongest. Regardless, anticipating a slow clearing trend to materialize this afternoon, which will offer a setup conducive for efficient radiational cooling late tonight into Monday morning. With several days of damp weather under our belt, anticipation is that decoupling winds from the weaker pressure gradient courtesy of the surface high moving over lower MI will allow for fog to develop late tonight into Monday. How early this fog develops will be dependent on how quick clouds clear this afternoon (earlier break in clouds, later fog development, and vice versa). Once we get into Monday, the surface high will have more or less parked itself in the vicinity of Lake Erie and Ohio for the next several days. Warmer SWerly flow to prevail through the week, drawing in a markedly warmer airmass... with temperatures in the 50s and possibly even 60s in downsloping locales by Tuesday Keep in mind, average highs are generally between 39 and 45 degrees this time of year. Overall, the forecast looks dry this week, aside from a wave passing through the upper Great Lakes some time between Thursday and Thursday night.

Lack of agreement on guidance brings uncertainty on rainfall amounts, coverage, and duration for this system. Nonetheless, guidance is on board with a system passing through. Another wave to eject into the Plains after midweek, with most guidance members depicting an aggressively deepening surface low over Minnesota. Given pattern recognition and amplification biases in long-term guidance, this system will probably occlude itself into oblivion before it reaches here, which will probably lead to a return of widespread, lighter precipitation (mainly rain, at least to start) at some point through the weekend, with a colder push on the backside of the system eventually leading to a returning chance for light snow. No glaring signals for a massive lake effect outburst, as the occluded nature of the system probably stymies the overlap of best low-level synoptic moisture and a colder low-level airmass to drum up those lake effect snow bands. Nonetheless, colder weather set to return either by the conclusion of the upcoming weekend or by early next week. More details to come.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

MVFR trending VFR for all sites by 19z due to cigs AOB 3 kft scattering out. A few sites (KCIU/KPLN) have already become FEW-SCT at the beginning of the period. N winds AOB 10kts will continue through 00z, becoming calm after. Winds will turn SW after 12z, becoming 7 to 11kts near the end of the period. Moderate chances exist for BR/FG impacts near KCIU/KMBL after 06z, resulting in IFR/LIFR vis and cigs. Low chances for impacts elsewhere.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.