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KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and seasonably mild weather to kick off the weekend.

- Confidence beginning to increase for a significant winter storm to visit the region Sunday into Monday, bringing with it gusty winds and accumulating snow.

- More typical winter weather expected across the Great Lakes through the remainder of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 203 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave trough and attendant surface reflection exiting stage right early this afternoon, taking their mixed bag of precipitation along with them. Post system cold air advection regime nearly non- existent, with rapid elevated warm air advection already kicking off just to our west. This has kept temperatures about on par for where they should be for the last week of December...with current readings in the 20s to middle 30s.

Rather stout mid and upper level ridging expected to build directly overhead tonight into Saturday, with its surface reflection running just a bit ahead of it...reaching vicinity New England by later Saturday afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Nothing significant...with focus on temperature and cloud trends through Saturday.

Details:

Any lingering mixed precipitation will end this afternoon, leaving rather uneventful conditions tonight and Saturday. Plenty of lingering low level moisture will keep conditions mainly on the cloudy side, although subsidence aloft and dry mid level conditions should result in dry weather. Will need to watch for some patchy freezing drizzle this evening, but shrinking moisture profiles and some evidence of a near surface dry layer argues otherwise. Definitely something to monitor though. All those clouds will keep temperatures on the mild side of normal tonight, with lows mostly in the lower to middle 20s. This sets the stage for a relatively mild Saturday, helped along by slowly maturing southeast low level flow. Clouds will do their best to offset this warming some, but still looking at highs at least a few degrees above normal, with afternoon readings ranging through the 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 203 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Some interesting trends within the mid-range deterministic guidance suite and a vast majority of their attendant ensembles...with most now featuring rapidly deepening low pressure cutting across the region Sunday night into Monday. Elongated and strong (in excess of 125 knots) upper jet core and potential merger of shortwave troughs does add some credibility to these trends. More typical winter pattern unfolds thereafter, with northwest flow aloft not only sending various waves into region but also setting the stage for colder weather and periods of lake snow as well.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Most focus directed at potential impacts from that Sunday into Monday system...to include mixed precipitation potential and gusty winds.

Details:

Challenges begin to ramp up rather quickly as developing isentropic upglide and moisture advection brings increasing precipitation chances by later Saturday night. Pre-system environment will be a mild one...especially so aloft where H8 temperatures will reside several degrees above freezing. This will likely cause full melting of falling ice crystals when precipitation arrives. Near surface environment will be a fairly mild one as well, but definitely could see readings running at or just below freezing during this time...setting the stage for some more freezing rain/drizzle potential before and just after sunrise on Sunday. Current trends support a transition to all rain on Sunday as surface temperatures reach several degrees above freezing.

Questions really enter the picture Sunday night through Monday evening as deepening low pressure cuts up and east of our area. As mentioned earlier...trends are definitely for a deeper and more impactful system...with some members of the guidance suite showing a sub 980 mb low cutting up across Lake Huron into Ontario. Full perusal of the ensemble guidance envelope does show these solutions on the more extreme end of the possible outcomes...with the actual ensemble mean showing a bit more southeast and weaker solution. While would like to give a much more concrete forecast...pattern recognition and past experience suggests keeping things simple for now...knowing a full range of possibilities are still most definitely on the table. With that all said, would also not be prudent to at least mention a high impact storm is a possibility... to include gusty winds and accumulating snow by later Sunday night into Monday...with the latter especially centered in our famed snow belt locations. Latest probability outcomes add some credence to this more high impact potential...with greater than 60 percent chances for at least 8 inches of snow by early Tuesday morning in those snow belt locations. Definitely something to monitor as the more aggressive outcomes would support significant travel impacts from both blowing and falling snow Sunday night through Monday evening. Of a bit more certainty is the return to colder weather, with temperatures on Monday likely falling through the 20s.

Trends continue to support a much more northwest flavor to the upper level flow regime heading through the remainder of next week. Such a pattern would support passing clipper-type systems as well as periods of lake effect/enhanced snow within a much colder weather regime. Plenty of time to fine tune details through this period, but overall confidence is pretty high that a return to much more typical northern Michigan winter weather is in the offing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Much of the steadier precipitation is departing the region, but patchy areas of BR/-FZDR possible into portions of tonight. This would lead to periods of lowered VSBYs, but uncertain of the persistence at terminals. Either way, CIGs remain in the IFR and largely MVFR category this afternoon and through the night with winds becoming more northerly, and lighter with time. Southeast winds return during the day on Saturday with MVFR conditions likely remaining, along with dry conditions for most.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346>349.