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KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy, windy and cooler later Thursday into Friday.

- Moderating temperatures Sunday into at least the first part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level ridging is in the process of building across the Great Lakes this afternoon through tonight. Attendant surface high pressure in control through Thursday morning. However, plenty of changes on the way Thursday afternoon through much of Friday as amplified troughing digs across the nation's midsection. Two areas of low pressure to note for Thursday, one diving in from the northwest out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario, and the second, a more moisture rich wave trekking northeast out of the southern/central Plains. These features largely phasing across the western Great Lakes by Thursday evening before racing east through the day Friday -- to New England by 00z Saturday. Heights build behind this system with renewed surface high pressure looking to renew drier conditions and gradually moderating temperatures for the weekend into at least early next week.

Forecast Details: Primary focus through the forecast period revolves around Thursday afternoon through Friday with increasingly wet and windy weather becoming the rule. PWs progged to increase to between 1-1.4" across the forecast area -- some +1 to 3 SD above the climo mean for mid-October. Should be a fairly widespread and steady rain for much of the forecast area, especially beneficial for those in expanding drought across the eastern U.P. Favored QPF amounts Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon range from 0.30-0.70" -- however, 30-50% probabilities exist across portions of northwest lower MI for rain amounts to exceed an inch. Even some very low (<15%) probs for 2"+ amounts over the same area.

Precip chances gradually diminish through Friday afternoon, although a bit of lingering lake induced shower activity may persist through Friday evening/early overnight downwind of Lake Michigan & Superior. Suppose it's not entirely out of the question that if showers linger late enough into Friday evening that a few inland/higher terrain locations could mix in a few wet snowflakes given H8 temps falling to near -5C. Not the expectation at this point, and if it does occur, shouldn't cause any issues, but felt the chance was at least worth mentioning. Thereafter, latest trends supporting mainly dry weather Saturday through at least the early to middle portions of next week with a slow moderating temperature trend (e.g highs Friday in the upper 40s to low 50s for most rise to the low-mid 60s Sunday/Monday).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

SCT to BKN ceilings at 2500ft AGL will dissipate for a brief period this evening, resulting in a short window of VFR. MVFR cloud cover redevelops tonight through the remainder of the TAF period. Current Northwest winds will veer southeast by Thursday morning followed by -RA spreading across all TAF sites shortly after the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347- 348. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LSZ321-322.