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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances increase this morning into this afternoon with best coverage expected across the eastern U.P. and northeast lower. Severe storms are not anticipated.

- Dry start to next week with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

- Trending cooler after midweek with highs in the low to mid 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing draped across south-central Canada and the Upper Midwest will slide east today as a more subtle, convectively- augmented shortwave over the mid-Mississippi Valley also works east over the Ohio Valley. Combined forcing from these features will support elongated low pressure along a relatively weak cold front set to sweep across the region today. Surface high pressure will temporarily build in behind this system on Monday before much more impressive troughing rotates into the Great Lakes later Tuesday through the middle of the week. High pressure looks to build into the Great Lakes again at the end of this week.

Forecast Details:

Main focus of the forecast continues to be expected scattered showers and storms across the area today. A few light showers may persist tonight/early this morning, but best chances will come late this morning into early this evening along/ahead of the aforementioned front. Best storm coverage is expected across the eastern U.P. from late morning through early afternoon with convection spreading into northern lower as time progresses. Ample buoyancy (~1,000 J/kg MLCAPE) will be in place ahead of the front to support thunderstorms, albeit characterized by skinny-CAPE profiles from the moisture-rich airmass present. This, combined with limited deep-layer shear (~30 kts EBWD) will hinder the potential for strong thunderstorms today. The main concern with showers and storms will be heavy rainfall potential with aforementioned high-quality moisture in place. As noted by the previous forecaster, PWAT values approaching 2" will support efficient rainfall with any convection, bringing the potential for localized totals of 0.5-1"+ through this evening.

Rain chances will wind down this evening as high pressure builds in, kicking off the week with dry weather and sunshine. Chances for showers and storms will re-enter the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as previously mentioned troughing digs into the Great Lakes. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s during the start of the week will noticeably cool during the middle of the week with afternoon temperatures staying in the low to mid 70s for most areas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered showers will continue across the eastern U.P. this morning. Coverage of showers and development of thunderstorms is anticipated later this morning and afternoon. MVFR CIGs have spread across portions of the area, and continued lowering of cloud bases is anticipated over the next several hours as low- level moisture increases -- potentially dropping some areas to IFR for a time this morning. Some improvement of CIGs is anticipated late this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, south- southwest winds this morning will increase and eventually turn to northwest winds behind a cold front slated to slide across northern Michigan today. Gusts to 20-25 kts are expected this afternoon and evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.