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KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with increasingly warm temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances creep into the picture later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Low-end shower chances to carry on Thursday into next weekend. Ample dry time expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Well defined nor'easter closing off the Mid Atlantic shore, which is retrograding a rex block ridge overhead. Ridge remains parked overhead into next week, as the blocking from the nor'easter eases once it gets set adrift to the east on the Atlantic into early next week. Meanwhile, stagnant northern stream flow will lead to the dissolution of a northern stream wave over the upper Midwest. Cursory glance at the 00z sounding this evening states that we may even struggle to get cloud cover to manifest until later today into tonight from this wave as it makes an attempt to intrude as it gets sheared out overhead. Otherwise, largely clear skies amid dry condition to prevail through Tuesday.

Meanwhile, split flow prominently featuring an active subtropical jet reinforced by longwave troughing anchored off the California coast to unleash a torrent of eastern tropical Pacific waves into the central and southern Plains through the week, including the potential remnants of major Hurricane Polo currently churning off the coast of Mexico being ingested around / after midweek. Meager northern stream activity anticipated until a more potent shortwave zips through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the lingering effects of rex blocking may shear this wave out as it approaches as well. Continued wave ejections coupled with a stationary front creating a barrier for moisture will stonewall deepest moisture pooling across the aforementioned region, potentially leaking as far north as the mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys later in the week, with increased, but still unimpressive, moisture streaming into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the remainder of the forecast period. With the breakdown in the rex block ridge and more zonal northern stream flow building, anticipation is that temperatures cool down to much more seasonable levels with low end shower chances into next weekend.

Details:

Ongoing patchy fog will scour out through this morning. Otherwise, still quite quiet here in the Northwoods the next few days. Aforementioned decaying shortwave will lead to an increase in cloud cover later today into tonight, with the only major impacts likely being slightly warmer overnight temps (lows might only touch the 30s, with 40s most elsewhere) and likely a reduced fog footprint across the region. As the pattern becomes regular again, return flow to build on the backside of the ridge as the trough axis folds eastward, resulting in warmer temperatures and sunnier skies Monday and Tuesday, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s across the board, and overnight lows in the 40s.

As the aforementioned Pacific moisture plume intrudes Tuesday night into Wednesday, reinforcing northern stream wave to draw moisture into the region... but the wave will be on a downward trend, and current timing of this feature favors a nighttime passage. In essence, with the amount of dry air overhead, anticipation is that any meaningful rainfall will have to be convectively charged. With an overnight passage, conceptually, instability should be lacking, and thus, trends will likely be bearish with rain amounts in the coming days regarding Wednesday's shower potential. Through the rest of the week, the active rain / storm zone to our south will draw north a touch with time, perhaps clipping the very southern edge of the Great Lakes with some appreciable rain through the end of the week. This corridor of rain may get a charge from the remnants of Hurricane Polo getting ingested into the pattern... and the amount of moisture and forcing may be just enough to prolong low end shower chances Thursday through next weekend... but should be noted that there will be ample dry time. Wouldn't even be surprising to see the forecast trend dry some days given how little moisture is set to be drawn into our neck of the woods. Temperatures will respond to the shortwave passage accordingly as well... highs will trend to much more seasonable levels by next weekend... with highs in the low-to- mid 60s and lows back in the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 530 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly burn off after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under mostly sunny/clear skies today and tonight. Latest trends support minimal fog/mist potential tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.