textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Spring-like warmth Sunday through much of next week, accompanied by renewed shower and thunderstorm chances (locally heavy at times). Watching increased potential for flooding and severe weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat April 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis: The majority of the forecast period is dominated by a relatively shallow trof west/ridge east configuration across much of North America. The flow is split at times, and when this occurs forecast area is still under the influence of the warmer southern branch. The southwesterly upstream flow this week will transport an unseasonably moist air mass into the area, with embedded disturbances bringing periodic chances of showers and some thunderstorms.

Forecast Details: First wave of the forecast period is ejecting northeast toward the Great Lakes from the central Plains. Clouds and showers associated with this feature are rapidly approaching from the southwest. Rain with this feature develops later tonight, with chances lingering into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts through the period of a half inch to two inches are possible during the period. The axis of the heaviest rainfall has shifted south a bit from previous expectations, focused more on northern Lower than eastern Upper.

A bit of a lull in the rainfall risk arrives Monday, but chances increase again later Monday night into midweek. Instability with this next wave in the vicinity will be better than the first one so more thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Some of the thunderstorms later Monday night into Tuesday may be strong, especially over the southwest half of the forecast area. Large hail looks to be the primary threat at this time. The convective nature of this precipitation should result in locally higher rainfall totals in some areas, but it is more difficult to pin point where the heavier rainfall will occur at this point. Another lull in the precipitation is expected after midweek, with the next surge of rainfall chances on tap heading into next weekend.

Forecast area will remain unseasonably mild through the week which, in combination with the rain, will do a number on the remaining snow pack in the area. The water from melting snow and new rainfall will be most notable across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern Upper. This is where an Areal Flood Watch will stay in effect from later tonight into Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 444 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions this evening, with a steadily increasing lower cloud deck overnight spreading from southwest to northeast. Transition to MVFR and eventually IFR cigs expected late tonight through the morning, with these lower cigs continuing through the afternoon as well. Showers and areas of mist will accompany this lower cloud deck, with some brief periods of heavier showers possible. May also hear a rumble of thunder or two Sunday...especially at KMBL. Light winds will become increasingly gusty out of the southeast and south later tonight and Sunday. Despite these gusty winds, a very strong low level jet will produce widespread low level wind shear on Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-086>088-095-096. MARINE...None.