textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Seasonably warm temperatures continue through the remainder of the week with highs in the 60s/70s.

-Rain with embedded convection set to track across the Great Lakes Region Friday Afternoon through Friday Night.

-Mainly quiet weather this weekend. The next chance of rain returns around the Monday/Tuesday timeframe with continued thunder potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis Forecasting: 500mb ridging remains positioned over the Central Plains with its axis progressing westward today. H8 temperatures advecting from the south into the Great Lakes Region will continue seasonably warm temperatures through the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Subsidence aloft will keep conditions beneficially dry across the CWA today, as continued localized flooding and high water levels recede.

At the same time, midlevel closed low pressure developing lee of the Rockies will deepen and extend a front with embedded energy waves eastward. Convective-driven showers attached to this feature will return widespread showers and storms to Northern Michigan Friday Afternoon through Friday night. Lingering low-level moisture will continue localized drizzle potential Saturday morning, but subsidence aloft quickly scours out atmospheric moisture, keeping the region dry through the remainder of the weekend. The midlevel height pattern over the majority of the central CONUS becomes somewhat zonal next week with shortwave riding over the Midwest. Overall quiet weather is expected through the remainder of the forecast period, with periodic chances of precipitation driven by embedded energy waves tracking through the midwest.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Quiet weather tonight through Thursday with seasonably warm temperatures... The midlevel influence over the Great Lakes Region today will continue pleasant spring weather across Northern Michigan. Low-level temperature advection of 850mb temperatures in the low teens combined with increasing mixing heights and adiabatic heating processes will keep overnight lows in the 40s tonight and highs in the 70s across Northern Lower this Thursday. With continued ongoing flooding concerns across the CWA, quiet conditions will be very beneficial for watersheds to recover from last week's historic flooding.

Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday night... The low-pressure system will sweep across the region overnight Friday through Saturday morning. Latest runs of model soundings depict profiles to support heavier rainfall such as narrow CAPE profiles, deep warm cloud layers, and PWATs approaching climatological maxima. Dynamics of this system are not ideal as guidance depicts this wave becoming cut off from the attached low lee of the Rockies, placing the Great Lakes region in a zone where moisture could remain south. Current forecast keeps most areas between 0.30-0.50, but locally higher amounts of convective driven rainfall over an inch remain possible.

Periodic chances of active weather next week... The previously mentioned shortwave riding pattern building over the Great Lakes region will build surface high pressure, keeping temperatures near climatological normal for late April. While cooler compared to this week, next week highs remain in the 50s and 60s through the remainder of the forecast period with overall dry weather. Only chance of precipitation expected at this time is the Tuesday timeframe as another shortwave quickly develops over the Rockies and lifts through the Upper Great Lakes. Long range ensembles depict gradients associated with this feature weakening with time. Highest probabilities remain between a quarter to half inch, but given the conditions of this system and remaining cut off from southerly moisture advection, precipitation could be even less.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

High pressure overhead will keep VFR prevailing through the forecast period. Largely SKC tonight, with a few mid to high clouds intruding later tonight. This should scour out to some scattered high cloud into Thursday afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight turn S to SE, with some gusts as high 15 to 25kts (strongest at CIU and PLN) through the afternoon, largely tapering around 10 to 15kts into the overnight hours.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1223 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

River levels across the board continue to decrease, albeit lakes are still elevated and causing issues. Mullet lake leveled out around 596.1 ft, current level ~596.05 ft, and will take along time to fully go back to normal. There continues to be reports and footage of flooded homes along Black Lake, with ice damage as well. Thus, localized flooding near some rivers, lakes, and poor drainages continues. Hydrographs continue to steadily decrease across our area, with the Manistee River near Sherman now in minor flood stage.

Improvement should continue through much of the rest of this week with dry conditions through Thursday. The next rain maker will move in during the day on Friday for most, with moderate rain and embedded convection possible across northern MI. Current guidance suggests a low to medium-ish (~20 to 50%) chance for >0.50" through Friday night. Convectively enhanced precipitation will lead to locally higher amounts. HEFS guidance does show subtle river rises/responses due to this rainfall, but nothing alarming at this time. That being said, the sensitive, poor drainage areas with lingering water/flooding will need to be watched, especially with soil moisture still ~40-60% (although slowly trying to dry) across portions of northern lower Michigan.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.