textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread accumulating snow through Sunday morning, resulting in 3 to 6 inches over most of northern lower and eastern upper with chances for locally higher amounts.

- Strengthening winds this this evening will linger through Sunday with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph in spots.

- Unsettled pattern continues through next week with snow chances returning Sunday night into Monday, another system arriving Tuesday, and a third system possible by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis: A vigorous upper-level low is centered over the upper Midwest, embedded within a broader trof over much of the central U.S. and Canada. A generally weak, strung out, area of surface low pressure precedes the upper troffing. The upper-low is forecast to dig southeast across the Great Lakes through the night, weakening and shearing to the northeast on Sunday as most of the jet energy within the upper trof translates to the east side of the trof. A double barrel deepening of surface low pressure develops overnight, most notably over southern Ontario and off the New England coast. A trof/convergence axis exists between these two features, extending into the upper Great Lakes. This western extent of this trof will pivot across the forecast area overnight, shifting south of the area on Sunday.

Forecast Details: Generally light to moderate snow will continue spread across the forecast area into early this evening. As the upper-level low dives southeast tonight and surface pressure deepens to the northeast of the low, a band of enhanced low-level convergence/frontogenesis is forecast to pivot across the forecast area in the low-level shearing/deformation area to the northeast of the upper circulation. A period of heavy snow is likely in the vicinity of this area of enhanced frontogenesis. While the band is expected to be progressive early this evening and later tonight, a period of slower movement is expected later this evening into the early overnight hours as the band pivots. At this point this pivot seems most likely to occur in the vicinity of the M-32 corridor. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible beneath the heavier band. Current storm total forecast accumulations (including this afternoon) of a general 3-6" snowfall still look reasonable, but have bumped up totals in the expected heavier snow axis and shifted it south a bit. Locally higher totals of 7"+ are likely where the band sits the longest. Snows will taper off by early Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Area remains under an active northwest flow with periodic clipper systems. Generally above normal temperatures to start the week turn below normal behind midweek clipper.

Forecast Details: First in a series of clipper systems arrives later Sunday night into Monday. This system is weak and should not result in appreciable snowfall. The next system is stronger and impacts the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Stronger southerly winds ahead of this system will push temperatures above freezing resulting in some of the precipitation falling as rain/snow mix or simply rain on Tuesday. It turns cold enough in the wake of this clipper to kick on the lake effect snow machine to some degree Wednesday. A third clipper may arrive by the end of the week, but there is definite model spread in the details with this system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Low pressure still pivoting W to E across the region...with front likely to swing south behind it after 6z. Expect worst conditions near APN, TVC, MBL with potential for LIFR at times under most intense snow, but prevailing IFR expected otherwise. Expect increases to MVFR after 12-15z with potential for VFR at times in the afternoon. Next system will bring impacts back in after 0-3z. All winds to switch around to N and NW thru the night, prevailing 10-15kts gusting 25-35kts. Expect winds to diminish thru afternoon and switch to W/SW by 0z ahead of the next system.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ016- 022>024-028>030-034>036-086>088-095>098. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ017-018. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ020-021- 025>027-031>033-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ349. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LMZ345-346. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.