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KEY MESSAGES

-Preceding SSW flow lake effect snow expected before widespread lighter synoptic snowfall fills in across the rest of the area.

-Another system brings more snow to the region Tuesday night - Wednesday. Additional lake effect snow likely in its wake Wednesday evening - Thursday.

-Sharply colder with more snow, both synoptic and lake effect, Friday through the weekend, and even into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Currently sitting beneath the influences of a pretty strong surface high pressure that has allowed for clearing across much of interior northern lower. Some lingering land-lake convergence snow showers ongoing across Whitefish Bay, leaking eastward into the Sault... along with the NW and far NE lower coastlines as well. Those interior clearing areas have seen temperatures plummet to around or well below zero, so anticipating some impressive morning lows across the typical interior iceboxes... perhaps dipping below -15 in places.

Looking ahead, a series of upstream waves are cresting a western NOAM ridge and spilling into the Dakotas as I type this discussion. The first of these waves (a clipper system) will produce the first of several rounds of snow set to impact the region through the week as ample cold air remains in place. This first round of snow will lead to the production of a preceding SSW flow band of lake effect snow that will set its sights on portions of the NW lower lakeshore (primarily Grand Traverse Bay and south) along with Beaver Island and especially western portions of Mackinac and Chippewa counties... and to a lesser extent, eastern Mackinac county as well. This band should materialize into the afternoon hours, and will lead to hazardous travel due to reduced visibilities, along with snow- covered roads. Drifting snow is a concern as well, particularly along the US 2 corridor where SW winds may gust as high as 30 - 40 mph this evening into tonight. Once this wave gets over us later tonight, lighter synoptic snows build in across the remainder of the region... with most spots seeing a general 1 to 3 inches of accumulation by Tuesday afternoon.

The aforementioned areas will obviously see more. For those highlighted NW lower zones (Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee) , anticipating a general 3 to 6 inches of accumulation... Beaver Island 4 to 7 inches of accumulation... western Mack will see a general 4 to 8, locally 11+ inches... western Chippewa a general 4 to 7 inches... and eastern Mackinac (west of I-75) a general 3 to 6 inches. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for all of these zones, with the exception of western Mackinac, which will be placed under a Winter Storm Warning.

Tuesday Afternoon: In the wake of this system's quick passage, some lingering lake effect snow will be left for us to contend with as winds trend more west to west-southwest. Primary area of concern from this would be the Tip of the Mitt, with potential for the heaviest band to materialize with a Little Traverse Bay convergence zone, which could send a period of heavier lake snows as far east as the I-75 corridor in Indian River. A few additional inches of accumulation will be possible through 00z Tuesday, which could prolong or even expand (Emmet, Cheboygan... Charlevoix?) headlines for this timeframe. For details regarding the next system quick the heels of this clipper, please see the Long Term discussion.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday night - Thursday: The next system will be a bit of a tricky one to dissect, but nonetheless, guidance is in pretty good agreement that this system will produce widespread snowfall across the region, with particular focus on northern lower. Probabilities for 5" of snow are maximized across northern lower, as high as 60% in places. Latest trends suggest that the farther south one goes of the Bridge, the heavier the snowfall amounts... to an extent. This system has its origins from the Gulf of Alaska, so it's got plentiful moisture, but still looks to have quite the warm advection response with it. Left entrance jet dynamics should promote plentiful diffluence to support a narrow concentration of heavy snow rates... but it will all depend on if this excellent forcing can make it all the way through Minnesota and Wisconsin to us. As such, SLRs remain a concern... and there is a non-zero chance that rain mixes in at times across Saginaw Bay as temps swell above freezing by Wednesday morning when the system makes its passage. In general, this looks like a 3 to 6 inch snowfall from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon across northern lower, with potential for locally higher amounts. A general 2 to 4 inches seems reasonable across eastern upper. Once this system passes, NW flow kicks in and lake effect snowfall will prolong the snows across the snowbelts through Thursday, with additional accumulations and travel impacts likely.

Friday / Weekend: Another quick moving wave bulldozes through the region... albeit a touch moisture starved. Nonetheless, this will have just enough synoptic moisture with it to coincide with an arctic airmass surge, with 850mb temps dipping as low as -17 to -21C. Thus, with a very low DGZ, there is some potential for dendritic growth to be stunted some, which could put a cap on snowfall amounts... however, with gusty winds and small flake sizes, this could lead to issues with lower visibilities given more of a powdery snow composition, and with temps falling so low, road treatment may be slower / less effective.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Sites are currently VFR with light and VRB winds. Winds turn S/SW after 18Z and will strengthen to 8 to 12 with G20 to 25kts. Winds will remain elevated for the remainder of the period. Around 00Z -SN will move in from the west and start to impact KMBL. Around 06Z, -SN will arrive at KCIU/KTVC with all seeing vis reductions under more moderate SN. KPLN could see -SN during this time as well, however chances remain low at this time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ020-025-031-086-098. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ095. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.