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KEY MESSAGES

-Surface high pressure supports quiet and dry weather through this week.

-Seasonably normal fall-like temperatures build this week with overnight lows around frost/freeze.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Split flow midlevel pattern begins to develop across North America today with shallow ridging over the U.S/Canadian Border and disheveled troughing across the Central/Southern CONUS. With the aforementioned midlevel ridging regime across the Northern U.S expected to last through the next several days, high pressure will build at the surface and support rain-free weather through the entirety of the forecast period. Post frontal northeast flow will result in today being the coolest day of the week with highs in the upper 50s east of I-75 while southwest parts of the CWA remain water due to slight downsloping processes. Focus remains on tonight as clearing cloud cover and efficient radiational cooling processes will lead to chilly overnight lows. Interior Eastern Upper will very likely see frost development in the morning while interior northern lower remains in the upper 30s. Patchy frost is still expected to develop, but will remain more localized compared to eastern upper.

Temperatures will remain near normal for mid to late September through the remainder of the week with highs in the 60s for most locations. The continued high pressure across the Great Lakes Region will keep partly to mostly sunny skies and no chances of precipitation through the next several days. Long range ensembles depict an embedded shortwave supporting some shower development this weekend in the northern plains. Confidence with this feature remains low as the midlevel wave appears to be lifting/dissipating with time causing the boundary to likely fall apart before reaching Michigan combined with the system remaining very moisture starved. Low PoPs will remain in the forecast at this time, but will likely leave the long term in the next few forecast cycles.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan through the issuance period. SCT/BKN035 clouds may linger across southern portions of the area into Monday morning with mid/high cloud spreading over all areas with time tonight. This cloud cover combined with winds staying around 5kts tonight is expected to prevent FG/BR development. However, if skies are more clear than anticipated and winds go calm, than localized areas of northern Michigan could see FG/BR develop late tonight/early Monday morning. ENE winds look to increase to around 10kts with gusts to 15-20 kts at times through the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ018-024-030-036-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ346- 347. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348- 349.