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KEY MESSAGES

- Combination of moderate to heavy wet snow and some icing will result in hazardous travel through this evening in northern lower, lingering into tonight across eastern upper.

- Another system will bring a period of freezing rain / sleet mix that flips back to snow for eastern upper Michigan Thursday night into Friday. A brief window of mix possible across the Tip of the Mitt and the interior terrain of northern lower late Thursday night.

- Snow showers will linger this weekend as we trend toward below normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Well advertised system underway across northern Michigan, with occluding surface low pressure centered over western MN this morning, slowly plodding eastward. Surface warm front stretches from roughly MSP to MKE to DTW. North of there, ample lift continues to feed a winter weather smorgasbord across much of the region, the lone exception being spots S / W of Grand Traverse Bay and toward Saginaw Bay, which have warmed above freezing and will continue to observe plain rain through this afternoon. Warm nose intrusion well underway across interior northern lower, albeit in a bit weaker of a state than perhaps previously thought. As such, freezing rain is less prevalent, with more of a snow / sleet mix. FGEN banding did help aid dendritic growth of the wet snow here at the office, with snowflakes roughly the size of golf balls, if not bigger, observed just before 10am. and dropping a quick couple inches in a short amount of time. This enhanced area of lift will continue its northward journey... leading to an uptick in snowfall across eastern upper Michigan, while areas south of the Bridge struggle with patchy drizzle.

As we head through the afternoon, dry slotting will move its way northward from downstate, perhaps bringing some breaks in the clouds for those along and south of M-55... Temperatures right around freezing, especially across the interior terrain of northern lower and far northeast lower to Lake Huron will contribute to potential for a glaze of ice on top of the wintry potpourri that has already fallen. Still anticipating snow through the afternoon across eastern upper, particularly near Whitefish Point and the Sault. As the surface low moves closer this evening, anticipating continued periodic drizzle across much of northern lower, but with the loss of mid level moisture, will see a transition to drizzle / freezing rain / sleet showers across eastern upper. Low level jet intrusion will drive steeper lapse rates aloft north of M-68 and into eastern upper, which, with enough elevated instability, may support a rumble of thunder or two this evening. Colder air finally returns to the region later tonight, which will support a partial transition back to snow showers in eastern upper, but with continued freezing drizzle. As such, have extended their Winter Storm Warning thru 9z tonight.

Thursday will be a transition period as we get locked between systems. Anticipating a dry day overall with some peeks of sun through the day. Mild temperatures still prevail with highs in the 30s across eastern upper... mid upper 30s northeast lower... and well into the 40s SW of a Pellston to Harrisville line (perhaps running at 50 for TVC, CAD, and MBL).

Next system busts the door down Thursday night into Friday... but looks to be a touch warmer than today's. Warm advection spikes Thursday evening, bringing a round of rainfall to northern lower. Current CAMs do support enough elevated instability to produce thunder across much of northern lower. The interior terrain will be walking the temperature tightrope, so could be a brief window of freezing rain... but no cold high to the northeast supports a quick rise above freezing for all of northern lower. Same cannot be said for eastern upper. As this convection moves into there, surface temperatures should be near or below freezing... so concerns are there for a period of freezing rain / sleet preceding a transition back to snow through Friday morning as colder air aloft builds. With the surface low hovering over northern lower, could see a prolonged period of drizzle as temperatures stonewall in the mid to upper 30s Friday afternoon. Synoptic precipitation ends late Friday afternoon into the evening, transitioning to snow showers that will hang around into the weekend as a polar airmass returns. Sharply colder Sunday as highs dip back below normal and potential for lake effect snow carries into early next week. Temperatures look to moderate by midweek next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Wet, heavy snow continue to shift north across the tip of the mitt and eastern upper Michigan this afternoon. Visibility drops to 1/4SM or less are expected to continue within heaviest snow, primarily at CIU. Lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle/ light snow possible at some of the terminals beyond steadiest precip departure into this evening. Varied CIGs across northern MI later afternoon through tonight with highest probabilities for VFR at TVC/MBL with higher probabilities of remaining IFR/MVFR at remaining sites. Otherwise, gusty winds continue this afternoon/early evening before gradually diminishing overnight into Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018-023-024. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ021- 022-028>030-098-099. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...None.