textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/storm chances Saturday night into Sunday. Locally heavy rain possible.

- Rain/storm chances return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad ridge axis over the central/northern Plains this morning, with troughing over the Western continent...and bits of energy amid broader troughing over eastern Canada, including a PV max over W. Ontario and a bit sliding by to our northeast through S. Ontario, resulting in upper confluence over the Great Lakes into the Northeast US. High pressure over central Canada beginning to ooze into the Upper Great Lakes, tapping into a cooler/drier continental airmass with prevailing/light northerly flow in the low-levels here in northern Michigan. (850mb temps in the 4-5C range to our northeast, with surface temps/dewpoints in the 45-55 range as of 12z.) Meanwhile...to our south...pesky baroclinic zone remains stuck from the Central Plains into the OH Valley...with deep moisture (pwats of 2in or more and dewpoints in the 70s) pooling along the boundary...and nocturnal LLJ veering across the Plains to provide a source of forcing/instability. Have noted the westernmost convective complex shift from the Central Plains last night into IA early this AM and fading with time as the LLJ veers and the 700mb cap retreats southward with time...with additional convective complexes over IL/IN and WV as of 12-13z.

Perturbation tracking through central Canada will result in increased return flow across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest...resulting in an area of pressure falls and precipitation to our northwest Saturday...while the BCZ to our southwest will remain in place and may also try to shift northward with time going into Saturday, with its own pressure falls and precipitation developing to our southwest...as moisture tries to sneak into the Upper Great Lakes, particularly Saturday night into Sunday, when our next best shot at rain will take place as that PV maxima treks across the region. This should exit stage right by Monday morning...with subtle ridging trying to build in for the day ahead of the next lobe of upper level energy tracking down out of central Canada. Currently, this appears to drag a boundary into the area for the midweek timeframe, which will be the next item of interest going forward. Beyond this...there are some signals for broad troughing to attempt to settle into the Upper Midwest/eastern continent, and ridging to try to build out west again.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/storm chances Saturday into Sunday... Dry low-level airmass currently funneling into the region from the north should slow top- down saturation and precip chances late tonight into at least part of Saturday, with the best shot at activity across SW portions of our area (toward MBL) during the day. It wouldn't be entirely surprising if we were able to hold off a great deal, if not all, the rain chances till after dark Saturday, with the best shot at rain early Sunday morning as PV max and attendant surface low pass by to our north. Deep moisture does cross the area Sunday (pwats 1.5in or greater), but we may end up with relatively weak forcing overall...and do have to wonder if the better rain chances will focus themselves yet again over the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley (perhaps even as far north as southern MI?) where there is more potential for instability along the edge of the cap, which could rob us of some moisture...and perhaps set up potential for precipitation areas to split around parts of northern MI again. However, if that area does develop and does track into our area, which is not out of the question, would expect potential for significant rainfall totals over that portion of the area, especially as it would be more likely to train, and we expect to have anomalously high precipitable water values in the region (97-99th percentile vs climo). Greatest shot of this scenario would likely be near and south of M-55 (but most likely, well south). Otherwise...will look for some embedded thunder early Sunday morning, especially ahead of the cold front where there is a better shot at convective instability...and instability in general. Not impossible there could be some marginal deep-layer shear to work with during this timeframe that could try to organize any showers/storms, but we will see.

Rain/storm chances look to return next week... Not impossible the weekend system allows a boundary to stall out over the Great Lakes region early next week, which should become important going into Tuesday as the next bit of energy slips down from Canada to reinforce that idea...perhaps with a bit of warm advection ahead of it? Or even some sort of MCS activity in the region with the ridge axis to our west. Attm, signals point toward a surface boundary draped across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by midweek, with some of the more aggressive guidance suggesting a surface low could spin up over the area on the boundary...though more likely, to our east/northeast based on current model trends. Some deeper moisture accompanies this boundary, and would expect some synoptic forcing with this, suggesting that rain and storms could threaten the area. Given the trends in this weekend's forecast over the last few days or so, not a lot of confidence in this idea standing totally firm for us...but certainly something to keep an eye on as we go forward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Low level Cu field will develop this afternoon with FEW to SCT cloud cover between 3500 and 5000ft. CIGs clear overnight at all TAF sites, followed by winds veering to the southeast by Saturday morning. Overcast cloud cover will spread from the southwest at KTVC and KMBL early Saturday afternoon, but VFR conditions are expected through the entirety of the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.