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KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke/haze through at least Thursday.

- Shower/storm chances return Friday-Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early week heat dome in the process of sagging farther south, expected to be stretched from the northern plains southeastward into Appalachia and the southeast states. Broad troughing and embedded shortwaves over eastern Canada expected to gradually sag into parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Deeper northwest flow to prevail locally, which will bring smoke concerns in over the next couple of days with an eventual return of shower/storm chances by Friday into Saturday, and again early next week.

Forecast Details: Primary focus over the next couple of days to revolve around smoke from wildfires in Ontario that's already being observed across parts of the U.P. early this morning (ERY/ISQ/CYAM have observed varying vsby drops as a result of HZ/FU). This expected to spread north to south across northern MI this morning with fairly significant vsby drops possible (progged at 1-4 miles in the majority of latest hi-res guidance). Aside from air quality issues, this likely to limit daytime warming to an extent today and again Thursday. Have once again knocked down high temps several degrees both days (a common theme the last several forecast cycles), and have little confidence that they're low enough if we realize thicker smoke and lower vsbys for a majority of the daytime hours.

Shower/storm chances eventually reenter the forecast toward the tail end of the work week as several more notable (especially Saturday) dig into the northern Great Lakes. Mainly chance pops Friday increase to likely at times Friday night into Saturday. Latest trends favor drier conditions to round out the weekend before additional precip chances return early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Incoming smoke from Canadian wildfires is already resulting in MVFR VSBYs across parts of the eastern U.P. and tip of the mitt, along with occasional MVFR CIGs. Smoke is expected to gradually spread south across the remainder of northern lower terminals today through tonight. Higher confidence in sub VFR visibilities through much of the TAF period, occasionally IFR possible at times, but lower confidence in CIG restrictions as a result of smoke. Winds out of the northwest today, occasionally breezy at times this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ346>348.