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KEY MESSAGES

-A few showers move across northern Michigan along with elevated fire weather concerns through the early afternoon.

-Temperatures continue to climb this weekend into early next week.

-Rounds of showers and storms move across the Great Lakes region this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A shortwave midlevel ridge with its axis directly over Northern Michigan will continue to advect warm surface temperatures into the Great Lakes Region. An upstream shortwave, currently positioned over the Canadian Plains will continue to lift northeast this Friday while weakening. The attached surface low pressure system with a connected frontal boundary will have enough energy to produce a few scattered showers across the CWA today, favoring the Eastern Upper Peninsula.

The midlevel pattern across the CONUS is turning more somewhat zonal this weekend with troughing positioned over the Pacific Northwest. Heights continue to block cool cP influence to the north, resulting in temperatures remaining well above climatological norms into early next week. Embedded height waves will continue fairly active weather this weekend into early next week, especially around the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Long range guidance continues to hint at more widespread showers and storms with potential for severe weather as a moist and unstable air mass remains stalled over the Upper Midwest.

Forecast Details:

Low end precipitation chances and elevated fire weather concerns today....Typical pre-cold frontal characteristics build this morning with mostly cloudy skies and light winds as this boundary attempts to produce rain via top down saturation. Surface and low level profiles remain dry with SSW flow gusting into the upper teens to low twenties. Elevated fire danger will remain a concern this morning ahead of the front as RH values approach critical thresholds for the first half of the day until dew points begin to increase after 18z. Enough saturation attached to the cold front in the low levels will create light amounts of precipitation, favoring the Eastern Upper Peninsula and the Tip of the Mitt. The remainder of the CWA will only have enough low level moisture to observe virga to a trace at most for a few localized areas, especially around Little Traverse Bay.

Temperatures will continue to climb this weekend into early next week... 850mb temperatures, currently in the mid-single digits, will eventually reach the upper teens early next week due to continued height rises across the Great Lakes Region. Adiabatic heating processes will provide the northwoods with temperatures well above normal for Mid-May with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday through Tuesday. Warmest days remain on Monday and Tuesday as strong southerly warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned trough places Northern Michigan in the warm sector of the approaching system. The majority of the CWA will observe mid 80s for highs with dew points in the 50s and 60s. Though we are not expected to break any record highs, it may threaten a few of them at our typically warmer parts of the CWA due to downsloping effects.

Rounds of showers and storms this weekend, with severe potential early next week... Our partners at SPC placed part of the CWA in a Day 5 severe weather outlook for the Monday night event. Aforementioned midlevel troughing over the American Rockies will eject energy into the Great Lakes Region Monday night through late Tuesday. Monday's setup has favorable dynamics with a low level jet, dew points in the 60s, strong midlevel lapse rates combined with several indices to support localized heavy rainfall. While Monday looks the most ideal at this time, instability will quickly reorganize during the day Tuesday before more widespread convection occurs ahead of the surface low. It is still a little too early to mention or estimate impacts, but this set up will continue to be closely monitored in the coming days. Upstream subsidence beyond Tuesday will likely return the Great Lakes Region to quiet weather beyond the midweek with cool NW flow returning temperatures near climatological norms for late May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR. Mid and high clouds will increase overnight into Friday morning. Maybe CIU/PLN see a shower in the vicinity, but more likely not. Clouds decrease again late in the day. Southerly winds increase on Friday. LLWS at CIU late Friday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.