textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Early morning showers/storms will diminish this morning, and will be gone by early afternoon.

- A chance for showers eastern upper MI tonight.

- Warm today, cooler Friday, then warming again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Band of showers, with a few embedded TSRA, is advancing across northern MI at this hour. This is just ahead of a surface cold front, which extends from central upper MI to central WI. This front moves across northern MI today, exiting the far se late this afternoon.

Lightning activity has decreased drastically since convection was back in WI. Near-term guidance argues for this weakening to continue (and accelerate) early this morning, as the low-level jet continues veering and become more parallel to the incoming cold front. Expect the convection band to break apart and diminish in coverage/intensity over the next several hours. By the time we reach sunrise/8am, western Chip/Mack Cos should be comfortably behind what's left of our precip (and thus dry), but the rest of the area will contend with a chance for showers. Significant mid-level subsidence/drying expands across the rest of northern MI this morning/midday. All precip should exit by 1-2 pm, with a partly to mostly sunny day after that. However, heading into tonight, colder air makes a stronger push. 850mb temps drop several degrees below 0C on Superior tonight. It is on the dry side still, but better moisture with a trailing shortwave is not that away over northern Ontario. Some lake effect rain showers will develop into the eastern UP tonight, especially Chippewa Co.

Pretty quiet again to end the work week and thru the weekend. Surface high pressure moves from sw Canada, to and across the Great Lakes. A 500mb ridge axis, starting out from the central plains to Canadian prairie, will gradually work eastward. It looks to be overhead by Monday. Though low-level southerly return flow will be with us thru the weekend into early next week, the building ridge aloft will make it difficult to get more than just a stray weak shower. But as the upper ridge heads east, better rain chances return Monday night thru the rest of the forecast. Both the northern and southern streams have significant energy working eastward. The degree of interaction between these is not yet known, but there is increasing potential for one or more wound-up systems in the central/ eastern states mid-to-late next week.

After another mild day today (not at warm as yesterday for most, except near Saginaw Bay), a noticeable but brief cooldown occurs Friday. We turn that right around to well above normal again beginning Saturday, into at least early next week. Temp trends by late next week look considerably less certain. But this forecast is still reaching several days into Nov without needing so much as a mention of that evil 'S' word.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Chance for a shower at CIU later tonight and perhaps PLN? MVFR cigs hold tough for CIU/PLN/APN thru the period, trying to scatter up to VFR in the morning. TVC may flirt with MVFR cigs at times thru tonight; think MBL will remain VFR. Winds generally WNW to NW thru the period, 7-12kts, gusting 20-25kts at times thru tonight; expect diminishing winds by morning, esp for TVC/MBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341-342. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.