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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains over the eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. Embedded shortwave trough crossed northern MI this morning, now situated just downstream. Focus quickly shifts upstream to a wave dropping into the Dakotas. Attendant surface low following suit. This system waves southeast to southern WI by 06z tonight and into southern Ontario by mid- Wednesday morning. Colder air gets pulled in on the heels of renewed northwest winds on the backside of this system Wednesday afternoon/ evening.

Forecast Details: Most widespread snow associated with this morning's clipper now off to our east, but a mix of lighter snow showers and freezing drizzle linger across parts of northern MI. Additional snow accumulation through the early evening likely under a half inch with a coating to 0.05" of ice where freezing drizzle falls/mixes in.

By mid-late evening, next round of snow expected to be spreading into northwest lower, continuing to progress east/southeast through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Somewhat better agreement coming into line with this morning's suite of global and hi-res guidance with the swath of heaviest snow likely falling across parts of central and southern MI. Should be a pretty impressive embedded FGEN band that sets up across part of this area, but again, highest probabilities for this lie to our south. That said, still some impactful snow accum. expected across southern parts of APX's footprint -- namely south M-32 and to a further extent, south of M-72. Expecting a fairly sharp cut off on the northern edge of the snow shield. This is the least confident part of the forecast at this time with exactly where that northern edge cut off is, but current trends support accums tapering quickly as you head near and north of M-32. No changes planned to the inherited winter weather advisories -- those advised areas still forecast to receive 2-5". A more general 1-2" toward the M-32 corridor. Largely an inch or less north of there.

Widespread snow expected to be exiting through Wednesday morning, clearing far southern areas near Saginaw Bay towards midday. Renewed northwest winds on the backside of this system, gusty as times up to 25-30 mph. This will bring a return of lake effect snow showers to the typically favored snow belts of eastern upper and northwest lower afternoon, and more so Wednesday evening/night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wednesday night - Thursday night: Northwest / west-northwest winds expected to prevail Wednesday night through Thursday with lake effect snow showers being the rule, favoring the typical snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper MI. Eye-popping snow amounts may be hard to come by, however, as latest trends point toward little in the way of synoptic help above a gradually shrinking inversion below 5-6 kft. None the less, it'll remain wintry in the snowbelts with some localized advisory-level snow amounts not out of the question. Thursday evening/night, low-level winds expected to gradually back more west or west-southwesterly, likely pushing what lingering lake effect snow showers remain toward the tip of the mitt.

Friday into the weekend: Another wave set to cross the northern tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend. H8 temps progged as low as around -21C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range ENS trends continue to favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake effect/enhanced event that'd favor the typical snowbelts with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much of northern MI through this time frame. Given such cold temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited, resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an extent, but also yield lower visibilities.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 631 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Low pressure sliding across southern Michigan will spread snow across parts of the area later tonight into early Wednesday morning. The snow will primarily impact KMBL/KTVC/KAPN, with KPLN/KCIU seeing little if any snow. The models have trended a bit further south with this system recently and any further southward adjustments in storm track could pull the heavier snow south of KTVC (something to be watched). Conditions will deteriorate at the terminals impacted by snow later tonight, with widespread IFR conditions developing late.

The snow will exit the area from west to east Wednesday morning with an improvement in cigs/vsbys. Winds will become gusty from the north and eventually northwest on the backside of the departing low. Areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility are possible, especially across open fields with north/northwest exposure.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.