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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers linger today, though impacts continue to wane.

- Cold but rising above cold weather advisory through the day today.

- Couple more wintry chances early to mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Elongated upper low and trough situated across James Bay down through Ontario and US NE to start the period today. This feature moves like lava in a lava lamp oozing across the US NE before repositioning near the 40N/70W benchmark off the coast of NJ/NY/LI. Closer to home, we remain in persistent cold, modestly stiff, northwest flow in wake of this energy. Little bit of over lake instability remains downwind of the big lake (Michigan) for pockets of lake effect snow showers mainly near GTB vicinity, most persistent earlier in the day. Outside of brief pockets of lowered vsbys this morning, and an additional inch or two or snow, not a big concern through the day today in regards to winter weather. Sfc high pressure builds across Ontario tonight just to our northeast across the Canadian shield I think they call it, aiding in a cold night across much of the area. Subtle impulse/warm advection aloft within the northwest flow aloft may result in a few snow showers very late and into early Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Cold Wind Chills/Wintry Weather:

Lingering very cold wind chills will continue through the morning hours today, but it will still feel quite cold through much of the day today with highs in the teens and a stiff northwest wind. Nevertheless, not expecting dangerous cold/cold weather advisory criteria to be eclipsed after mid morning.

Lake effect snow showers will linger through the day today, esp GTB vicinity, but the spatial coverage and intensity should not be all that concerning, especially as the day goes on. Will still be an area of modest snow showers near GTB during the predawn/morning hours but planning to let the advisory expire at 12Z/7AM with perhaps an additional inch or so of snow accum thereafter.

Weak impulse within the northwest flow aloft along with warm advection and a corridor of modest moisture will overcome the general rising heights aloft and result in a region of light to very light snow. Latest guidance shows the best potential for this generally to our southwest, but a few snow showers may leak into far southwest portions of the region, Traverse, Cadillac, and west. Not expecting a huge deal out of this.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Another system to our north will swipe the northern portion of our area with snow early next week. At this time looks like the best chance for precipitation will be the farther north you go, particularly the E UP. However, some indication that a wintry mix could be possible with this feature. Snowfall amounts do not look concerning, but any mixed precip would pose a more delicate issue.

An additional shot of precip is possible Tuesday into mid week with uncertainty on the exact depth and interaction of a couple of pieces of energy across the Upper Midwest vicinity. Current ENS show a low probability (~10-30%) for 3" or more across the E UP, which seems reasonable given the latest guidance. Another one of those systems where the main upper low and forcing will be north and so the farther north you are the better, but something to watch moving forward. Otherwise, high temps will largely be in the 20s and 30s much of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 629 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Lake effect snow and BLSN continues this evening, before winds slowly subside later tonight. IFR at times tonight CIU/TVC, and perhaps MBL/APN. Otherwise a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions overnight and Saturday, with VFR becoming more common as the day proceeds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-086>088- 095>097-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ020- 025-026-031-032-095. MARINE...None.