textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild temperatures build across the Great Lakes region this week. Little to no precipitation is expected through Wednesday.

-Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected to track across the Midwest this Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: 500mb troughing over North America today will develop into a more zonal flow pattern across the midwest. Current 850mb heights with temperatures below freezing will begin to lift and pull a milder airmass into the region from the southwest. Large scale surface high pressure will progress eastward while still influencing northern Michigan. This will support relatively dry and insignificant weather today through Wednesday while surface temperatures turn mild for early March.

The midweek pattern becomes more active as multiple waves of energy track through the region. The first round of rainfall for northern Michigan is this Thursday as a shortwave develops over the Central Plains and tracks through the Ohio Valley. Round 2 will follow closely behind this Friday and Saturday with guidance depicting deeper moisture and enough instability to potentially produce some convection.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Mild temperatures build across the Great Lakes region this week. Little to no precipitation is expected through Wednesday...Warm air advection underway across northern Michigan will continue light southwest flow. Cloud cover will remain mostly clear across the northern Lower Peninsula, while eastern upper will observe some low level cloud development as relatively warm air travels across Lake Michigan. Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 30s across northern lower, while the Upper Peninsula will remain near freezing. Seasonably warm temperatures build Tuesday and Wednesday as highs reach the mid to upper 40s. The latest runs from the NBM produce a slight chance of precip this Tuesday for the southernmost counties of the CWA driven by a stationary boundary setting up across the Ohio Valley. The latest deterministic guidance keeps moisture well south of the CWA, but low probabilities will still remain in the forecast this cycle.

-Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected to track across the Midwest this Thursday through the weekend... The next round of precipitation for the region remains on Thursday as the previously mentioned shortwave digs through the Ohio Valley. The latest guidance shows a surface low tracking through the Michigan/Ohio border and spreading moisture north. Low probabilities (20-40%) of measurable QPF remain below M-32 with little to no chances of precip expected north of the bridge. Guidance depicts low chances of freezing drizzle Thursday morning, but the vast majority will remain light steady rainfall with surface temperatures climbing into the 40s Thursday afternoon. The majority of rainfall remains around the Friday/Saturday timeframe as the second shortwave arrives. The highest probabilities of QPF remain between a quarter and a half inch across the northern Lower Peninsula. Moderate mid level lapse rates and enough low level CAPE will potentially produce some embedded thunder Friday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1103 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this taf cycle under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Light winds this morning become a bit gusty out of the southwest this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease again this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.