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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy with showers through Friday. Rain likely to mix with/turn to snow for some tonight into Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level troughing essentially sitting directly atop the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. Attendant area of surface low pressure now centered downstream over Quebec. Initial cold front crossed last night, with a secondary cold front beginning to make headway into far northern/western sections of the forecast area. This boundary will cross through the remainder of the afternoon into early evening before exiting to the southeast. Cold air advection to be the rule tonight into Friday before higher surface pressure and low-level warm advection firmly take over later Friday afternoon into Friday night. The weekend through much of next week look mainly dry, although an active northern stream will allow several waves to trek by to our north, the first as early as Sunday with additional Tuesday and again Thursday.

Forecast Details: Primary focus this afternoon through Friday continues to revolve around increasingly gusty winds and continued rain showers, which may eventually mix with or change over to all snow for some locations by later tonight into Friday morning.

Winds will be in the process of turning out of northwest post cold frontal passage this afternoon and early evening. Latest trends support increasing gustiness behind this frontal passage with highest probabilities for localized gusts of 35+ mph across far northwest lower MI and near Whitefish Bay in the eastern U.P. While the timeframe for strongest winds is between 22z-08z, it'll remain breezy for much of northern MI pretty much through the day Friday with gusts of 20-30 mph common. Wind chills at commute/bus stop time Friday morning expected to range from the mid-20s to low 30s area- wide.

Periods of numerous rain showers across parts of the area are expected to remain the rule at times through the remainder of the day, tonight and into Friday. Showers heading into tonight/Friday aided by lingering synoptic support/moisture combined with increasing over-lake instability as cold air advection ramps up. H8 temps favored to bottom out between -4.5 to -6 C by late tonight into Friday morning with a rain/snow mix or change over to all wet snow becoming likely across parts of the forecast area -- primarily sections of eastern U.P. and the interior higher terrain of northern lower. Surface temps a little trickier with latest trends favoring the coldest spots falling to 33-36F during this time frame, but certainly in the realm of possibilities for locations that see heavier/steadier precipitation to drop a touch cooler than that. None the less, any accumulation of wet snow should be minor (~0.5" or less) and primarily be limited to cooler and/or elevated surfaces given ground temps should be sufficiently warm to melt most of what falls. That said, latest REFS probs of 35-45% exist for 1"+ of accum. by 18z Friday, primarily near and north of M-28 in Chippewa County.

Lingering synoptic support exits through Friday afternoon with any rain/snow mix turning back to all rain before the vast majority of precip exits by Friday evening. Perhaps a few lingering lake induced rain showers in north flow favored lake effect areas, but overall, a much quieter Friday night anticipated.

As was alluded to above, latest trends support less active conditions return to northern MI this weekend, and potentially through much of the remainder of the forcast period. That said, confidence decreases heading towards the middle of next week as aforementioned active northern jet may buckle enough to send another shot of cooler temperatures and lake enhanced precip into the area. High temps Saturday in the 40s and low 50s area-wide with more 50s favored Sunday through at least Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Lots of bouncing around between MVFR and IFR through the forecast period. Lowest CIGs to prevail between 00z and 15z. Showers and drizzle / fog to pick up in intensity / coverage tonight as winds flip north and gust 25-30kts. May see some snowflakes mixing in at CIU, perhaps PLN too late tonight. All of this will carry into Friday morning, perhaps tapering a touch toward the end of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ322.