textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow with blowing and drifting expected Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with greatest impacts and highest snowfall totals across the eastern UP.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the western US...with some Pacific moisture creeping into southwest Canada on the nose of a 140kt upper jet poking into the PacNW. Troughing across the eastern half of the continent, with most notable punch of PV just off the coast of New England, driving a strong winter storm over that region (972mb surface low with height falls exceeding 20dm/12hrs). In between...rising heights across the Upper Midwest, but a very cold air mass oozing in as well on northerly flow through the column with a 1047mb surface high over northern Ontario...tapping -20C and colder air from northern Canada. Morning temps in the single digits to lower teens across the region, which is closer to normal for northern Michigan for late Feb...but also much colder than we've become accustomed to the last several days.

High pressure will attempt to slowly build in today...but deep east coast low could certainly keep the pressure gradient up later into the night tonight. Next system will be on our doorstep already for Tuesday...with some more accumulating snow to contend with into Wednesday morning...before the system finally heads on out. This should drape a baroclinic zone across the OH Valley somewhere for Thursday; guidance has trended much less interested in this than previous thoughts, though there could be some subtle clipper activity here in the Upper Great Lakes. Otherwise...high pressure to try to settle in across the northern/central part of the country Thursday. Potentially potent northern stream system crossing central Canada by late week could lead to a nice little warm up across the Upper Midwest to end the workweek...though attm, it appears it will drape another cold front down into the Upper Midwest. Given the recent flip in guidance for Thursday...not inclined to jump on any bandwagons for the remainder of the period attm.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Snow Tuesday...Decent moisture with this system (pwats around or slightly above normal) and sufficient synoptic lift with the incoming PV maxima later Tuesday afternoon along with left exit region jet dynamics...which supports the idea of at least solid advisory snowfall totals. However... looking like we will have a reasonably deep isothermal layer (~10kft) in the DGZ for several hours, particularly in the afternoon as that deeper moisture and better synoptic forcing move in...suggesting snow-to-liquid ratios will be on the higher side across the EUP and potentially tip of the Mitt. (Perhaps as high as 20-30 to 1?) Additionally, it looks like there should be some weaker stability aloft, above the DGZ layer but still reasonably within the synoptic forcing, which supports the idea of getting a bigger bang for our QPF buck, above what would otherwise be expected. Additional concerns that could lead to higher snowfall totals are lake enhancement with southeast flow...which would particularly impact the Drummond Island/DeTour Village area of the EUP where there is a little less ice cover to contend with.

Have opted to lean toward the higher side for snowfall totals across the EUP for aforementioned reasons...which puts us in the realm of 6- 8 inches between Tuesday morning and around midnight going into Wednesday, focused particularly across the eastern UP where better forcing/moisture align. The heaviest snow should fall during the afternoon hours, with impacts to the Tuesday evening commute. Speaking of commutes...strengthening southeasterly flow (around 15kts, perhaps closer to 20kts? gusting at times around 20-25kts) will cause issues for travelers, and in particular, for the US-2 corridor west of the Mackinac Bridge, given ice cover over northern Lake Michigan...where whiteouts could be possible at times from blowing snow, in addition to the falling snow aspect.

The Tip of the Mitt and perhaps down toward Alpena could be a close call for those higher snowfall totals, especially with the southeasterly flow not entirely unfavorable for lake enhancement over there...and will need to keep an eye on this with future updates. For now, though...greatest confidence in snowfall totals greater than 6 inches is north of the Bridge, with prob guidance hinting at a 50-60 percent chance up here. Some prob guidance wants to highlight the interior higher terrain (i.e., Otsego county)...which may be picking up somewhat on the idea of lake effect in the wake of the system. Think northern lower may be in a more favorable position overall for some freezing drizzle as the dry slot pokes in Tuesday evening and strips out moisture aloft. Another niblet of energy could lead to an uptick in whatever lake effect snow is lingering Wednesday morning. Otherwise not expecting p-type issues with this system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Lingering MVFR lake induced clouds will continue early this morning at KMBL. KTVC, and KAPN. Fast moving system will spread a round of IFR producing snow quickly from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Heaviest snow will likely target KCIU and KPLN where several inches of snow are likely by early this evening. A bit lower accumulations at the other taf locations. Heaviest snows end quickly this evening. Light winds becoming increasingly gusty out of the south and southeast later this morning and afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None.