textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Light scattered showers chances return Today and Sunday.

-Warmer air builds across the Great Lakes Region with little to no precipitation through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A split flow midlevel pattern continues to occupy North America this weekend with shortwave troughing positioned over the North American Plains this morning. This trough and embedded height waves will bring chances of light precipitation this weekend with most rainfall expected today before departing to the northeast on Sunday. At the same time, a longwave ridging pattern begins to build over the American Southwest and move toward the Great Lakes Region by Monday. This pattern will support dry and overall quiet weather through the remainder of the forecast period. Pacific air mass influence will warm surface temperatures from near climatological normals today to highs in the 80s for most locations by midweek.

Forecast Details:

Today and Sunday...Surface low pressure will be centered over Central Indiana this morning and will continue to track through the Ohio Valley today. Light stratiform rainfall will push on the north side of this low, spreading rain into the southern half of Michigan. While most of the CWA is expected to remain overcast, counties along the Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay shoreline can expect a general tenth or so of rainfall by tonight. Model soundings depict lingering low level moisture in the area combined with enough vorticity from the departing wave to continue lingering showers this Sunday. Again, most areas are expected to only observe mostly cloudy skies while a few isolated convective-driven showers deliver light amounts of additional precipitation.

Monday through Thursday...An elongated 500mb ridge begins to deepen Monday and Tuesday until it centers itself over central North America. A wave pattern will attempt to form an Omega Block, leading to surface high pressure and quiet weather this Monday through the remainder of the week. Aforementioned warm air influence from the southwest will support temperatures climbing above normal for late May/early June with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. Only concerns in terms of impactful weather will be typical subsidence aloft leading to high dew point depressions and RH minimums hitting critical levels. Most likely days with the driest conditions will remain beyond the midweek.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1150M EDT Fri May 22 2026

Cloud cover will thicken and lower thru this forecast period. Cigs will reach MVFR at APN Sat morning, and IFR in the afternoon. MVFR cigs reach the other TAF sites in the afternoon (and CIU may become IFR in the evening). Rain showers will eventually push into ne lower MI on Saturday. Do have -SHRA reaching APN late in the day. Breezy easterly winds thru the forecast.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ017-018-024-030-036-042-088-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342.