textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly lows possible tonight

- Active weather for midweek and beyond

UPDATE

Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Skies clearing out and winds starting to die off this evening, with high pressure trying to nose its way in...setting the stage for good radiational cooling, especially west of I-75...though winds are starting to trend down a bit east of I-75 as well. Dewpoints generally in the lower 40s to around 40; think they could come down a few more degrees overnight, especially where less showers occurred today and where it was able to clear out/mix out a bit this afternoon. Looking at temp-dewpoint spreads of 5 or less across interior northern Lower where we saw showers/drizzle right up until about 0z or so, and clouds only starting to clear out in the last couple hours...am concerned we will end up with more fog than previously anticipated (and this idea would keep temps a bit warmer too). Have adjusted overnight temps accordingly, and have also introduced patchy fog in the forecast to get that idea in there for tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 436 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing currently swinging over the Great Lakes will lift to the northeast tonight as the surface response follows suit with the cold front sliding across the Mid-Atlantic/New England. The north end of surface high pressure noses into the region on Monday before additional troughing rotates in, bringing our next system into the area on Tuesday. This system will exit east Wednesday before a second, and seasonably impressive, system follows right on its heels Wednesday night into Thursday.

Some gee-wiz on the Wednesday night/Thursday system: Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance drops the associated surface cyclone near 990mb as it traverses the Great Lakes -- which would be very rare for the middle/end of June. In fact, latest forecasts put this cyclone outside the return interval for CFSR climatology -- meaning that over a 3 week period centered on Thursday's date (June 18), reanalysises during that timeframe over the 30 year climate period from 1979-2009 did not have a cyclone as low as what is forecast for the Great Lakes. Additionally, over 70 percent of North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) members are forecasting these extreme values, indicating relatively high confidence at a 3+ day lead time for such a system to materialize.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing light showers across parts of northern Michigan will end this evening as cloud cover is expected to diminish with time tonight. There is uncertainty in how cool low temperatures get tonight depending on the timing of cloud cover clearing, but current confidence is that mostly clear skies will materialize overnight and allow for a period of efficient radiational cooling -- potentially dropping lows into the upper 30s to low 40s for typical cool spots of interior northern Michigan. Cool temperatures a few degrees below average will stick around this week with continued troughing overhead.

After showers end this evening, rain chances return to the eastern U.P. Monday afternoon and evening. More widespread rainfall enters the picture as the first system moves in Tuesday, although rainfall amounts are expected to remain light. More substantial steady rain is likely later Wednesday into Thursday as the aforementioned anomalous cyclone works across the region, along with gusty winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions through this morning under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Likely to see some high based cumulus develop later in the morning and afternoon, especially across KCIU. Some of these cu may become deep and organized enough to produce a few showers (isolated thunder?) across eastern upper Michigan in the afternoon. Dry conditions with more VFR conditions across the remainder of the taf locations. West to southwest winds becoming a bit gusty at times this afternoon, becoming light again tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.