textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool temperatures tonight with a few colder pockets dipping into the 30s

- Windy and wet Monday night into Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Fast moving upper flow across the northern tier of the CONUS with Pacific energy sliding over a developing ridge and into the Great Lakes. Synoptically, this upcoming pattern has heavy rain potential signals for parts of the Great Lakes. This includes impressive northward moisture transport, favorable upper level jet energy north of a strengthening upper ridge and a stalled out frontal boundary over the northern Ohio Valley/southern Lakes. A tightening pressure gradient early in the week will create windy conditions as well.

Surface high pressure slides across the area tonight, setting the area up for very cool temperatures. Widespread 40s over interior areas with typical colder locations in the mid to upper 30s (a touch of patchy frost?). A few wildcards in the forecast which could impact temperatures include some lingering lake cloud potential into the evening and the possibility that we don't fully decouple the winds until the surface high drifts more directly overhead.

We are still looking at widespread rain potential Monday night into early Tuesday with strengthening moist, southwest flow in advance of a cold front. Models have backed off a little on the broader heavy rain signals for northern Michigan, placing the best f-gen response and moisture transport primarily to our west Monday night and to our south on Tuesday. Prob QPF numbers still show some potential for 1"+ rainfall amounts, although those numbers have trended downward in recent runs. The pattern is fairly progressive, as the shortwave energy shears out over Ontario and the front slides across the area by later Tuesday. Winds will certainly ramp up Monday night into early Tuesday with a 40+ knot low level jet in the weakening phase as it pushes toward our area. Not the most favorable pattern to fully mix these winds to the surface given continued warm air advection. Despite that, think some areas closer to Lake Michigan could see 40+ mph gusts, lower inland.

Some question marks for the middle/end of the week as additional shortwave energy rides along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south. Best rain potential will be south, closer to the boundary but at least some shower chances for the second half of the week over northern Michigan. A stronger shortwave may move toward the Great Lakes next weekend, bringing better chances of widespread rain. Temperatures generally fairly close to normal for mid September, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions across northern Michigan this afternoon...combination of lake/diurnal Sc/Cu and a mid level overcast across northern Lower...with broken convective clouds and showers across Lake Superior and central/eastern Upper Michigan. Showers may sag into far northern/northeast Lower later this afternoon...with occasional MVFR visibilities at KCIU/KPLN/KAPN. High pressure builds into Michigan overnight...may still be some lake induced Sc around but anticipating VFR conditions through Monday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016- 018-020-025-031-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.