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KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing confidence in a potential high travel impact lake effect snow event for Thanksgiving, beginning Wednesday and continuing into Friday. Primary concerns at this time are high snowfall accumulations and strong wind gusts leading to significant visibility reductions and blowing snow.

- Light rain/snow mix this afternoon into Sunday AM.

- Mild temperatures with highs in the 40s and low 50s for the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Subtle ridging currently overhead will quickly be shunted east as shortwave troughing punches over the Great Lakes this evening and tonight. Favorable forcing provided by this feature aloft will continue to support a weak cyclone that will sweep across Ontario tonight, eventually weakening as it works into Quebec on Sunday. The attendant cold front, albeit weak, will also slide across northern Michigan later this evening/tonight and exit the area to the southeast Sunday morning.

Forecast Details:

Primary focus for the short term will be the precip along and behind the aforementioned front set to work across parts of the Northwoods later this afternoon and continue into Sunday -- especially the eastern U.P. where better moisture is in place. Chances will begin north of the bridge mid to late afternoon as the front encroaches on the area and forcing aloft scoots in. Initial precip is expected to fall as rain, but light snow may mix in later in the afternoon and evening as temperatures gradually cool. Very light rain is anticipated south of the bridge with decreasing chances with southward extent as available moisture becomes less and less favorable, forcing falling precip to struggle making it to the surface.

A brief break in precip chances is expected this evening before lake effect precip kicks in overnight. Temperatures largely in the mid 30s complicate the precip-type forecast, but current confidence is that the dominant precip type overnight will be rain with snow mixing in at times across interior eastern upper and northwest lower -- especially in the higher terrain. Any snow falling is likely to struggle to accumulate in said marginal temps with little in the way of impacts for Sunday morning travel. Lake effect rain showers look to continue into Sunday morning across northwest lower and persist into Sunday afternoon across the eastern U.P. where favorable low- level moisture sticks around longer as the system works further away from the Great Lakes with time.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Thanksgiving Holiday System (Wednesday - Saturday):

Of foremost interest will be the system set to impact the Great Lakes through the peak of Thanksgiving holiday travel. Confidence continues to increase in a potential high impact lake effect snow event across parts of northern Michigan for the holiday, beginning in the Wednesday afternoon/evening timeframe and continuing through the remainder of the week.

The bulk of latest guidance -- both multiple ensemble suites and deterministic model runs -- continue to trend the expected sytem further south, tracking squarely over the northern half of the state Tuesday and Wednesday, quickly deepening underneath strong ascent aloft provided by an impressive trough punching across the region. As this system pivots to the northeast, strong northwest flow will overspread the state. To emphasize -- should current trends continue, a significant lake effect snow event would be expected across much of northern Michigan. Persistent flow for 18-24+ hours combined with deep saturation evident in forecast soundings will bring the potential for high snowfall amounts. A quickly deepening cyclone over the region will bring the potential for strong sustained winds and gusts in excess of 40 mph -- making rapid drops in visibility and drifting snow major concerns. Considering the potential impacts and volume of expected travelers during this timeframe, those with holiday travel plans should carefully review them and stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates as tweaks in expected timing and impacts are made leading up to Thanksgiving.

Early this Week (Monday - Tuesday):

Prior to the expected snow for the holiday, the first half of the week will be mild across northern Michigan. High pressure will build across the eastern U.S., wrapping southerly low-level flow around the backside of the feature ahead of the developing cyclone and advecting warm air into the region. Highs in the upper 40s and low 50s are in store for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures likely remaining above freezing Monday night. Rain returns to northern Michigan early Tuesday as the system begins to work into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR to prevail at TVC and MBL, while conditions hover around marginal MVFR conditions at the rest of the TAF sites. Rain showers (possibly mixed with snow at CIU) possible through tonight, eventually confining to CIU by Sunday morning. Showers at CIU taper Sunday afternoon, with VFR conditions prevailing across the board in the afternoon into the evening. Winds set to flip NW tonight, becoming rather gusty (some 25 to 30kt gusts likely) in the morning, tapering closer to sunset.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LHZ346- 349. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ344>346. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for LSZ322.