textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog tonight, locally dense.

- Seasonably mild and dry through the first half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Weak sfc boundary shifts low level winds off to the northwest and /north tonight into Thursday, as sfc high pressure slides across Ontario. Another moist night with calming sfc winds and light northwest low level flow will result in more fog, especially across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan downwind of the lakes. This is highlighted well in the SREF and HREF probs for visibility <2 SM. Fog may linger a little longer, slowly dissipating through the morning hours. A couple of degrees of cooling is anticipated on Thursday, due to the high pressure building to the north and the northeast sfc winds coming off Lake Huron.

High pressure departs to the east later in the week and first half of the weekend as heights build aloft. Temperatures will moderate back into the 60s most areas, mid-upper 60s for some, with precipitation free weather anticipated.

By Sunday, deep trough/upper low across Ontario and vicinity will beat down the ridging over northern Michigan to some extent, allowing for a trailing frontal boundary to push eastward and southward across northern MI with time. There will be the potential for some showers along this boundary, especially across the eastern UP. Probs are generally low to medium (10-60%) for 0.1" of rain during this time. Cooler, more seasonably so, air behind this frontal boundary will try to filter in early next week, especially Tuesday. The degree of the cooldown is a little in question, with some ensemble guidance suggesting near normal temperatures and others a few degrees below. There is the potential for a quick rebound to above normal temperatures, however, after that.

Rumblings of a significant cooldown later this month into early November making its rounds. Tough to say at this point, but what can be said is significant ridging will build across Alaska (-EPO) which generally correlates (but not always) to cooler air eventually spilling into the lower 48 and Great Lakes region. This to say, most ensemble guidance means suggest warmer than normal temperatures during this time frame, with a few individual outliers showing a more substantial cool down. Let's watch the trends.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions remain through the afternoon and evening hours with SKC-SCT250. Southwest winds today at about 5 to 15 knots for most. Another round of BR/FG tonight (potential for 1/4SM to 1SM VSBYs), with most terminals at play as the focus will shift to northwest lower into eastern upper Michigan. BR/FG may linger a little longer into the morning hours on Thursday for some, dissipating around the 14 to 15Z time frame.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.