textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temps continue to filter into N MI this evening and overnight scattered showers end this evening.

- Much cooler Wednesday, with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze Wednesday night.

- Steady warming trend late week into the weekend, watching potential for rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Cold front to bring sharply colder temperatures this evening and tonight consequent of upper low moving across Ontario. Additionally, scattered showers from this afternoon will largely end by 7-8PM. Expect a cooler night tonight, with some 30s and 40s across northern lower and eastern upper MI. Winds will remain elevated through the night, and a little breezy at times.

Upper low continues to sweep eastward across Ontario on Wednesday, with sfc high pressure building in across Minnesota and Wisconsin, nudging eastward. Expect cool conditions through the day on Wednesday, with high temps between 50 to 60 degrees for most. High temps a full 15 degrees below average for some. High pressure continues to move eastward, settling just to our northwest/north Wednesday night. With winds progged to decouple, most locations have a good chance for either a front or freeze event. Given this could cause decent impacts to vegetation and crops, went with a freeze watch for the area. Mixed in MAV guidance to nudge low temps colder.

Next time period of relative mild concern will be the later Friday into Saturday time frame. Low pressure and warm advection lifts northward, with the potential for rain across the region. This will all depend on how subtle energy across the central portions of the country is handled which will impact low pressure location. Combining GEFS, EPS, and GEPS together yields a high chance for >0.1" of rain and a low to medium chance for 0.5". Thus, could be a wetting rain for some, although the highest potential is shaded farther downstate and especially near DTX. Stay tuned for additional details. Heights will continue to rise through the weekend and into early next week, meaning the warming trend is progged to continue. Looks pretty warm early next week if the pattern holds true.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Some pockets of lingering sub-VFR CIGs over the next several hours for parts of northern MI, but a return to VFR expected area-wide by daybreak this morning. Occasionally breezy northwest winds through Wednesday before winds turn light/variable tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.