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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/storms today and tonight...

- Showers/storms again Thursday...

- Warmer, more humid, and more active starting this weekend, lasting into next week...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Flattened ridge over the southwest US as niblets of energy track into the PacNW...with confluence (and attendant WNW-ESE 80kt jet) across the northern tier of the CONUS between this and broad upper troughing, centered on a broad 566dm 500mb low churning over southeast Manitoba. Some deformation noted in satellite imagery between this and shortwave ridge axis over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...with sharper shortwave trough axis over New England. Moisture return increasing across the central part of the CONUS...though some moisture trapped under the aforementioned upper low. Bulk of the heat attm is along and west of a baroclinic zone stretching from the Intermountain West to the TX Panhandle (and to some extent, eastward across the Gulf Coast, though not quite as hot there), with 850mb temps cresting 20-25C; best convective activity is out this way as well, with greater access to weaker stability from EMLs. Some convection kicking off along a boundary stretching from Nebraska to southern MN; an occluded low is located over southern Manitoba, where some additional convective activity has been ongoing along an occluded front stretching down into southern MN. Activity with these two features seems to be splitting a bit as of 4z as dry air sneaks in between these two features. High pressure still hanging onto the Upper Great Lakes, Mid MS Valley, and OH Valley...but only for now, noting temperatures and dewpoints are already largely warmer at this hour (4z) than they were the previous night.

Expect upstream upper upper low to continue to meander eastward into the Upper Great Lakes today through Thursday...slowly exiting by Friday. In the meantime, some rain and storms to cross the region, especially this afternoon into tonight...with additional thunder chances on Thursday as trailing PV meanders through the region. Ridging slowly builds in Friday...with some niblets of energy across central Canada...as more notable troughing digs into the PacNW. While the central Canadian niblets could bring us some activity, think the feature to watch will be that energy out west...which should expand into longer-wave troughing Saturday and Sunday as 120kt upper jet traverses the flow from the Pacific. This will allow ridging to build over the central/Eastern US Sunday into the first part of next week, with strong return flow through the column, especially across the MS Valley. Expected result will be an increasingly warm and moist airmass advecting into the Upper Great Lakes. Still a lot of details to hammer out, but certainly a good idea to prepare for at least the humidity next week, with signals for this general pattern to hold on into the first part of July.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/storms today/tonight...Straight advection would bring convection from MN (at 5z), if it holds together, into the area around midday or so, though not impossible some activity could develop ahead of this on the nose of the theta-e ridge leaning across WI...but think activity will initially be slow to reach the ground given antecedent dry mid-levels, per our 0z sounding. Think best instability will come in the afternoon and especially this evening with cooling aloft and some slight warming in the mid- levels. Signals currently take the bulk of the higher pwats and instability to our south today/tonight, which is not unexpected; additionally, think there will be an area of scattered deformation/wraparound precip across the Yoop/Lake Superior north of the PV max tonight, similar to what is going on over MN and Manitoba attm. Pwats around or above an inch could lend a threat for higher QPF today/tonight as well, particularly if activity ends up taking on more of an E-W orientation with some training, similar to what is happening upstream over MN and central WI attm. Additionally, it does look like some kind of E-W boundary will try to set up somewhere over MI, perhaps across northern Lower, which could focus rain/storms as well. Other concern with this E-W boundary is the potential for veering low-level flow, especially if we end up drier during the day and can form lake breeze boundaries. Given potential for moist low-levels, LCLs should be low, and would not be surprised if we had some spinny shenanigans again later this afternoon/evening, though think the threat for this is quite low attm. Several hundred joules of CAPE are possible later this afternoon/evening, which may not be fabulous for stronger storms, and deep-layer shear will be weak/marginal...so think severe chances would be low overall.

Rain/storms continue Thursday...Some PV maxima will be swirling through the region with trough axis generally overhead, which suggests shower activity, at the very least. Think the best shot at beefier storms would be across NE Lower where there is a better chance at things remaining more moist/unstable longer. Diurnal heating would again lead to more instability Thursday afternoon, even from the surface, and convection could be a little more spicy toward Saginaw Bay with several hundred (perhaps over a thousand?) joules of CAPE....though with moist low-levels (especially if there is some appreciable rain tonight), may not take too much heating for parcels to become buoyant, and showers/storms could start to pick up through the morning hours. Flow should still be weak, perhaps even weaker than today...but this would allow for lake breeze boundaries (especially with the aid of diurnal heating) that could enhance low- level shear in the Saginaw Bay region.

Warmer/humid and more active starting this weekend, lasting into next week...Strong ridging building into the region will bring a taste of the airmass currently over the southwestern US/western Plains into the region starting this weekend, and likely hanging on through much of next week, with potential for a 590+dm 500mb ridge axis centered somewhere in the vicinity of the OH Valley by the middle of next week. 850mb temps currently look to rise from the mid-upper teens this weekend, into the 20+C range for at least the early part of next week. Just how deeply into the 20C range we get is the question...as we may be close enough to the perimeter of the ridge that activity could sneak in and keep things cloudier/cooler (heat- wise) than the current forecasts (and whatever hype comes from it) suggest; have opted to play things a little more conservatively (compared to some of the more aggressive guidance) based on this idea, though still potential for some spots to reach or crest 90F early next week, especially the further south you go. Of as great a note as temps is the anticipated increase in humidity, as strengthening southerly flow should lead to dewpoints reaching into the muggy-for-northern-Michigan 60s. Even if we don't end up with the worst-case-scenario heat, the increase in humidity will make things increasingly unpleasant and perhaps dangerous, especially for those more sensitive to heat/humidity and those working outdoors.

Strengthening southerly flow should result in increasingly moist and unstable conditions going forward this weekend into early next week, which, with the more amplified pattern across the CONUS, suggests potential for increased convective activity across some portion of the Midwest. Will need to keep a close eye on this, as we may well end up close enough to get in on some of this activity in some way, shape, or form...though if the ridge axis ends up a little broader and more focused slightly west of overhead, we could end up capped beneath the ridge. Some subtle signals attm for the upper low to fling some energy across Ontario toward the middle of next week, which could dampen the ridge a bit...and also leave us a little closer to the perimeter again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1027 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Only concern through early this morning is for the possible development of some early morning fog/mist...especially at KCIU. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue under just some passing high level clouds. Top/down saturation begins quickly during the morning ahead of a weak area of low pressure. Showers will accompany this deepening moisture...initially targeting KTVC and KMBL. Confidence remains low on just how far north and east these showers will reach through the day into early this evening. Cigs will further lower for the afternoon, likely bringing MVFR conditions to western taf locations...with these lower clouds likely expanding further east into this evening. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.