textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures into the weekend along with slowly increasing shower/storm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Kind of a typical mid-summer large scale upper level flow regime across NOAM...consisting of western Conus centered upper level ridge/heat dome and broad northeast NOAM centered troughing. Michigan of course remains right under the ridge/trough interface, featuring primarily west to northwest flow aloft. Large area of lower lakes centered high pressure dominating the surface conditions across much of the Great Lakes, bringing with it dry and seasonably mild weather to the Northwoods. Southeast dropping cold front well to our north in northern Ontario, kicking off a few showers and thunderstorms along and just a bit ahead of it.

Upper level flow regime described above essentially remains locked in place for the entirety of this forecast period. While this will likely prevent any widespread wet weather as best Gulf moisture plume remains detached to our south, passing southeast diving waves will drum up occasional shower and storm chances through the period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing those periodic chances or showers and storms.

Details:

After some seasonably chilly temperatures tonight, Friday is shaping up to be a just about perfect summer day...with near normal highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s under plenty of sunshine. Temperatures continue to slowly warm heading into the weekend, with widespread highs in the 80s by Sunday. Weak shortwave trough and its attendant surface reflection expected to work into the area Saturday, with an eventual completed detachment of mid level support likely allowing its surface component to "wash out" on Sunday. While large scale forcing is weak at best, diurnally-driven instability support and some modest pre-frontal moisture pooling will bring the threat for at least a few showers/storms Saturday into Saturday night. Not currently anticipating any high impact weather with these storms given such limited deep layer support.

Pretty decent mid-range guidance agreement that next southeast diving and likely a bit more robust shortwave visits our area Sunday night into early next week. Could see a bit more robust convective activity with this wave given what looks to be better low and mid level wind fields. Current SPC graphics suggest best severe potential will slice west and south of the Northwoods, with conceptual models also agreeing with this idea. Will of course need to look out for some isolated areas of heavier rain, especially where those more moist soil conditions reside (parts of northwest lower Michigan). Plenty of time to work out these details in the coming days. Current trends support a relatively uneventful period of weather heading into the middle of next week. Airmass source region continues to look to be mostly from Canada heading through next week, with no direct tap to western heat dome. This should keep our temperatures well within the range of what is considered normal heading through the last week of July.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR. Breezy west to west-sothwest winds this afternoon diminish in the evening. Southwest flow builds back through Friday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342-344.