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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy today; milder to start the week, with rain returning Monday night/Tuesday.

- Rain transitions to snow Wednesday; gusty winds, colder temperatures, and accumulating lake effect snow are expected from late Wednesday into early Friday.

- Active weather remains on the horizon through next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the NW US, with a 100kt upper jet crossing southern Canada and dragging Pacific moisture inland. Upper low still hanging over the SW US, with its own punch of Pacific moisture into the Desert SW/TX. Southeastern US ridge continues to be suppressed, keeping the bulk of the moisture closer to the Gulf Coast. Here in the Great Lakes...negatively tilted shortwave axis stretches from central Canada into the Michigan as of 0z/23...with attendant surface system crossing the region. Best saturation and dynamics remain along/north of Lake Superior...though additional low-level moisture is filtering in behind this and attendant cold front on strengthening NW flow. Otherwise...southeastern US ridge continues to be suppressed...keeping the better moisture along the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas/Georgia.

We'll be on the backside of the shortwave trough and surface system this morning...though weak cold advection will keep some NW flow lake effect in play for a time, esp for the EUP. Current thinking is it remains warm enough in the low-levels that whatever falls should be mainly rain...though a few flakes can't be ruled out. Warm advection aloft begins later this afternoon/tonight as ridging builds eastward into the region. Increasing return flow over the Upper MS Valley tonight could lead to some mid/high clouds overspreading parts of the area along a subtle boundary, loosely connected to a subtle northern stream disturbance passing well north of us Sunday night into Monday...though with antecedent dry air in place...not expecting much, if anything, out of this feature tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns through tonight:

Expecting a breezy day today between exiting low pressure and incoming high pressure...with sustained winds 5-15kts from the NW/WNW, esp for the first half of the day. 30+kt low-level jet will only add to this, particularly for the first half of the day into early afternoon, while cold advection helps enhance downward momentum transfer. Expect gales, especially for northern Lake Huron (and for our nearshores, near Presque Isle Light) as well as Whitefish Bay...and think gusts could be a little closer to 30kts over land as well. Not out of the question some 40-ish kt gusts could occur (esp over the waters), but greatest confidence in widespread 25-35kts attm, esp across NE Lower and the EUP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Days 2-3 (Monday-Tuesday)...

Breezy return flow in place across the Midwest Monday...ahead of a couple areas of troughing out west...an open wave over the central Plains, and shortwave troughing trailing just behind it. Expect generally mild conditions across the Great Lakes, with some rain chances on the increase as that subtle boundary/surface troughing from Sunday night looks to drape into the Upper Great Lakes Monday/Monday night...ahead of that central Plains wave scooting on into the Upper OH Valley by Tuesday morning. From here...upstream features begin to take precedence...particularly, northern stream shortwave trough that will dig into the Northern Plains, taking on a negative tilt through the day Tuesday as it moves eastward into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Setup favors development of a strong, dynamic surface low in the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday...with strong, cold, northerly flow overtaking the Upper Midwest in its wake...though we here in northern Michigan should still be on the warm side of the system till Wednesday morning.

Days 4-7 (Wednesday-Saturday)...

Dynamic upper system crosses the Upper Great Lakes, quickly winding up and occluding a surface low, most likely near/over Lake Superior Wednesday. Expect strong cold advection in the wake of this...with WNW/NW flow ramping up Wednesday night (likely sustained winds 15- 25kts; gusts 30-40kts)...and we should transition from rain early to lake effect snow by the end of the day as temps fall through the day both at the surface and aloft...and moisture aloft wraps back in behind the low Wednesday night. This idea persists into Thanksgiving Day itself...with flow slowly starting to wane Thanksgiving night/Friday morning...though accumulating lake effect snow along with breezy and cold conditions will likely remain the norm for many across the area. Beyond this...think lake effect snow will continue for some, though areas of focus should change as ridging tries to build back in toward the weekend...ahead of another strong system looking to develop over the Southern Plains.

Expecting travel impacts both for road travel and airline travel, particularly late Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day and perhaps into Friday, given potential for blowing/drifting snow and lowered visibilities (both inside the most intense bands as well as outside of bands). Additionally...since we will have a prolonged period of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...followed by falling temperatures, strong winds to continually remove heat from surfaces, and snowfall rates that should allow for accumulations by late afternoon/evening...think there could be impacts to how well roads can be treated/pre-treated during the early stages of this event.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Lingering MVFR conditions will trend VFR. Gusty west-northwest winds will back southwest tonight, then accelerate Monday morning with occasional gusts 20-25 knots possible through the evening Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346- 349. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ344>346. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ322.