textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers and a few storms today, mainly north.

- Rain, windy conditions, and seasonably cool temperatures return late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

By the start of the forecast period this morning, sfc low pressure center will be somewhere near the Leelanau Peninsula. Aloft, a few perturbations within the west to east flow will be situated upstream. These associated feature at the sfc and aloft move east with time through the day today. Generally to the north of this low pressure system (Tip of the Mitt and Eastern Upper) will reside the best potential for additional/lingering showers and a few storms, best chances through the morning and midday hours, waning with time through the afternoon. Moisture does evacuate aloft, and thus there could be a period of very light showers and drizzle in spots given the somewhat saturated 0-1 km level, near/north of M-32, midday to early afternoon. Otherwise, a cooler day expected, at least a step in that direction, as northwest winds envelop northern Michigan behind the low pressure system. More tranquil heading into tonight, although there may be a small chance for a few light showers aided by H500 and H250 jet streaks aloft. Overall though, cooler temperatures expected tonight with decreasing surface winds, and dry most areas/most of the time.

Couple of features to monitor during the mid to late week time frame. Main feature will be a positively tiled upper trough that dives down across the Great Lakes region on Friday, bringing good synoptic lift and rain chances to the region. An additional upper low moves out of the Desert Southwest, weakening as it moves northeast, but the sfc reflection will advect modest moisture northeast, with an initial surge of precipitation and rain chances. In reality, precipitation chances from this event will be driven from both of these features and their interaction, with the potential for a healthy rainfall for northern MI. However, the main story with the late week system will be the strong cold advection on Friday coupled with 35 to 45 knots of H850 winds. Consequently, windy conditions, potential for 30 to 40 mph, higher along the Lake Michigan shoreline, will be possible (fine tuneage in the coming days). As an additional note, there could be a few showers on Wednesday, but that will not be the focus of the mid to late week time frame.

Heights rise aggressively after the aforementioned trough with sfc high pressure building in. This will result in precipitation free weather through the remainder of the weekend, and slightly milder by Sunday. Although fantasy land, ridging looks to build next week as well, which would lead to a period of warm, and potentially dry, weather. The CPC outlook echos this sentiment, with high probabilities for above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 604 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Low clouds riddle the entire forecast period today and tonight. Expect IFR to LIFR for a good chunk of the period, occasionally lifting to MVFR in spots later this afternoon and evening but remaining below VFR through the night. Best chance for -SHRA today will be KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN, generally through around 18Z, maybe a few hours later, with iso -TSRA possible this morning. Midday and afternoon activity will be light showers or drizzle. Winds shift to the northwest through the day today, a little breezy, but below 20 KTs most locations. Expect lowered VSBYs at times as well through this morning due to -SHRA/BR.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ341- 342.