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KEY MESSAGES

-Drawn-out lake effect snow event enhanced by weak clipper systems to bring ample accumulations to the snowbelts of northwest lower and eastern upper through Thursday. Potential for high-impacts to travel in the snowbelts... minor impacts elsewhere.

-Additional clippers to traverse the region at various times through the weekend, leading to more snow, especially int he snowbelts.

-Trending a touch milder next week with mixed signals regarding potential for more wintry precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 239 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

The powerful wintry system that impacted us Sunday into Monday has made its departure to the east, becoming a vertically stacked low off the coast of Atlantic Canada... and thus placing the Great Lakes into a zone of longwave troughing with persistent cyclonic flow amid an arctic airmass. As a result of us being on the periphery of this blocking feature, the result will be a fire brigade of shortwave troughs traversing the Lakes in the form of weak clipper systems. Ample overlake instability is continuing to drum up lake effect snow as I type this discussion... with WNW to NW flow lake snows impacting the NW lower and eastern upper snowbelts. The first clipper is starting to show the whites of its eyes across upper Michigan and west to Wisconsin. This feature will deliver a boost of moisture content that results in a flare up efficient lake snows later this afternoon into tonight across the snowbelts... tapering a touch into the morning hours of New Year's Eve. Lighter synoptic snows elsewhere... probably in the order of an inch at most... with perhaps some additional snowfall delivered by any lake effect snow showers that can leak out of the snowbelts. Immediately on the heels of this initial system, another more potent wave builds into the region, flaring things back up through the day on New Year's Eve... with winds veering ever so slightly more NW. Regardless... this will be a drawn out but still impactful stretch of weather for the snowbelt locales.

WNW flow favored spots across northern lower and more true NW flow spots in the eastern Yoop will be the breadwinners for this event. Model soundings showcase exquisite low level lake induced instability with saturation all through the column, continuing into the inversion aloft as well. There is some hesitation to dismiss the more aggressive CAMs that are trying to spit out some pretty beefy totals (10"+ by 12z Wednesday) considering these favorable parameters. Nonetheless... anticipating those totals to wind up being the ceiling for the event where any banding remains more persistent... most other snowbelt locales (specifically Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, Crawford, and portions of the eastern Yoop) probably see a general 3 to 7 inches by Wednesday morning. South of Grand Traverse Bay and across the Tip of the Mitt, a general 2 to 5 inches during this timeframe.

Additional lake snows throughout the day on New Year's Eve will keep those totals piling up as we bid adieu to 2025 in appropriate northern Michigan fashion. An additional 4 to 8 inches of snow will be possible across the core of the NW lower and eastern upper snowbelts... with another general 1 to 3 elsewhere across NW lower... perhaps up to an inch across the rest of the region. As such, with totals in excess of 12-15" certainly on the table by the time we reach Wednesday evening / night, will be upgrading the areas with highest confidence in those totals to a Winter Storm Warning and expanding Advisories where necessary. Should be noted... with winds looking to veer more NW Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, headline shuffling and perhaps even expansion may be necessitated to account for any lake effect snow bands shifting with the prevailing flow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 239 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

The active wintry stretch marches on with no signs of stopping through the weekend... it's gonna get repetitive, y'all... Latest guidance showcases another batch of shortwaves / clipper systems zipping through the region, each bringing their own flare ups of lake effect / enhanced snowfall. In particular, the timeframe of Thursday night into Friday, Saturday into Saturday night, and Sunday night appear to stand out for potential passages of these disturbances, which almost all should bring snow chances to the region, and more appreciable snowfall to the snowbelt locales. Guidance is trying to flex an upstream ridge axis into the region next week, which on paper should lead to somewhat of a suppression of the lake effect bonanza... but does too bring the potential for a WAA wing to pass through... will have to watch temps aloft like a hawk if this can materialize.... for the time being, guidance wants to keep temps near normal (mid-to-upper 20s) into next week... so if this warm advection push comes with precip and a warm nose, that means we could be staring down another window for p-type concerns if everything goes horribly awry aloft. More details to come... but until then... snow lovers and winter recreation enthusiasts... be sure to kick off 2026 on a good note and get out and enjoy all that the region has to offer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 626 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Lake effect/enhanced snow showers will continue through much of the period. Slight downtick in activity possible later tonight, then a ramp up again on Wednesday. Thus, TAF period will continue to be riddled with MVFR to low VFR CIGs for most, with lowered VSBYs within heavier snow showers. Winds will be breezy at times, up to 15-20 knots tonight, then 25 to 30 knots on Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ016- 017-020-025-026-031-032-088-095-096-099. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ021-022- 027-028-086-087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321-322. Gale Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.