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KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry this week and weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

No major changes. An Omega-ish block, anchored by upper lows off the east coast, and moving onto the west coast, will promote above-normal heights for the central Conus for quite some time. There is an actual shortwave of note in the near term, crossing the northern lakes Wed afternoon. Its eventual fate is be sheared out across New England, before getting absorbed into broader east coast troffing.

The shortwave Wed afternoon does provide a reasonable shot of DPVA forcing in northern areas, and arrives at a favorable time of day. But it has very little moisture to work with. It would not be shocking to see the Straits area and the eastern UP see a stray shower Wed afternoon/early evening. But that chances is 10 percent or less, and will not be included in the current forecast. We will see increased cloud cover moving thru Wed, especially again in the north. But temps will still be as warm or warmer than today, thanks to a zone of warm advection ahead of a weakening cold front. The airmass behind that front will take a few degrees off of max temps for the rest of the week.

The upper pattern becomes a bit more mobile this weekend. But the upper trof pushing east across the western states only serves to amplify the ridging over the Great Lakes this weekend. Expect temps to trend a bit warmer again moving thru the weekend. The increasingly mobile/energetic northern stream becomes harder to get a firm grasp of next week, but plenty of guidance brings a stronger cold front into the region, and sharply colder wx by Tuesday (even with unimpressive pops).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR for the majority of the period. Only hiccup is some BR / FG concerns at MBL through early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, clear to mainly clear conditions prevail. Calm winds first trend NE late tonight at CIU, PLN, and APN... turning ESE to SE through the morning at all TAF sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.

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