textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold, showery, with accumulating lake effect snow showers tonight near the coasts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 412 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Pattern amplification well underway over the CONUS...with western ridge building up into Alberta/Saskatchewan on the nose of a 140kt upper jet...and longwave troughing settling back into the eastern US (particularly, the Midwest), blocked from eastward motion by ridging over the north Atlantic; 100kt meridional jet diving down through the Plains attm as the thermal gradient aloft tightens. Lobes of PV digging into the Midwest attm. Pacific moisture still funneling northward into the Canadian Rockies...and over the ridge and into the Plains...with deepest moisture over the SE US ahead of the trough axis...though pwats are a little better over the OH Valley ahead of a notable PV max there. Pool of cold air to our north (-12C at 850mb over western Ontario) being advected southward on generally N to NE winds in the low levels; trajectories suggest the coldest air will funnel around northern MI (as usual), though our temps aloft are dropping, with the 0C 850mb line now well south across southern Lower MI. At the surface...1032mb cold surface high over northern Manitoba...1003mb surface low over the central OH Valley with cold front draped back to TX...and baroclinic zone stretching from British Columbia to MO. Indications of an inverted trough over NE MI attm, with a subtle surface low over the St. Mary's River system and a subtle cold front stretching down into NW MI (where a slow moving band of rainfall has been all evening...though it is beginning to move a bit quicker as of 6z as upstream PV max digs in.

Multiple lobes of energy to dive into the Midwest over the next couple days, reinforcing the idea of troughing and cool/unsettled weather over the Great Lakes (including snow at times)...though the center of the upper low looks to remain to our east for now. Ridging will slowly press in this weekend ahead of another couple punches of energy being thrown into the West Coast, though some influences of the departing trough may hang on into the weekend regardless of high pressure. Appears some of this West Coast energy will plow its way across the base of the ridge, through the central/southern US...as northern piece rides overtop the ridge through central Canada Sunday into Monday. Additional energy digging into the western US early-mid week will build ridging over the Midwest again...with signals for energy to try to progress eastward into the central Plains toward the end of the period. At the very least...anticipate high pressure will eventually give way to return flow into the Upper Midwest, and may need to keep an eye out for some active weather going into the middle-end of next week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Snow accumulations tonight...Signals now point toward a more NE flow tonight, rather than the N flow it had been signaling earlier. This still suggests convergence will be enhanced by Grand Traverse Bay, particularly noting that the south end of the Bay(s) have a slight SSW-NNE orientation...and should still lead to some upslope enhancement toward the higher terrain west of TC into Leelanau county...as well as down toward Interlochen/Thompsonville/Buckley. Think another potential maximum for precip will be from Northport down to Manistee, with more snow accumulation potential in the higher elevations between those two areas...though it is possible the QPF bullseye could remain just offshore, especially if flow weakens enough inland to allow for a subtle land breeze to develop. With lake temperatures still running around 10-12C, do wonder how close to the coast snow will fall, let alone accumulate...though a more easterly component could potentially limit the lake influence on temps and keep things a touch cooler in the coastal areas. Localized QPF bullseyes could be as high as 0.50-0.70 overnight, which, even with sloppy snow-to- liquid ratios around 5:1 or less, suggests potential for a couple inches of snow could fall, if not more...though question still remains if it will be able to stick around given the warm soil temps (still 47F at the MSU extension research center in Leelanau County). However, still have concerns that convection could be vigorous enough to overwhelm the warm surface temps and accumulate anyway. Current forecast has an inch or two total for tonight, focused particularly over the Leelanau Peninsula, which seems reasonable attm. Think snow (or at least, mix showers) will continue into the morning hours until deeper moisture departs.

There are also some increasing signals for lake effect off Lake Huron into NE Lower MI, which makes sense given more of a NE flow in the lower levels. Fetch will not be quite as maximized over here as for points along the coast of Lake MI (except for perhaps areas toward Harrisville and south)...and the lake surface temps are a little cooler over here than on the west side (closer to 10C vs closer to 12C, respectively). The interior higher terrain is a bit further from Lake Huron on NE flow than it is from Lake MI on NW flow, but could still be enough to enhance some precipitation (snow) chances for areas east of Gaylord toward Lewiston and Comins (perhaps even as far as Barton City), and these areas will likely run a bit cooler overall than surrounding locales anyhow. Localized bands of QPF as high as 0.3/6hrs are possible overnight per hi-res guidance, which could allow for some light accumulations (most likely less than an inch, but a couple inches could be possible at worst). It is possible the pressure gradient could weaken enough over land to allow for subtle land breeze influences to take hold overnight, which could shift any lake effect bands more toward (or even off) the coast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 621 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs this morning, eventually trending to VFR this afternoon for most sites...though TVC/MBL and perhaps APN will hold onto MVFR or lower cigs with transition to lake effect mix/snow showers. (Best shot at SN is after 18z, and esp after 23z.) Possible LIFR cigs in more robust snow bands tonight if they set up/pass over TVC/MBL. Winds generally NNE to NNW today, 10-15kts gust 20-30kts; should taper off a bit tonight with subtle land breeze possible for coastal sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342- 344>346.