textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms return tonight into the early part of weekend.

- Warm temperatures continue next week with mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

High pressure remains he primary influence across northern Michigan today, supporting another warm, dry, and breezy afternoon. Relatively poor overnight RH recoveries combined with temperatures climbing well into the 80s and frequent gusts of 20-25 mph will result in another day of elevated fire weather concerns, with some locations potentially approaching critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. For additional details please see the latest Fire Weather Planning Forecast.

The pattern begins to change tonight as moisture and upstream convective activity gradually work toward the Great Lakes. While most of northern Lower should remain dry through today and into tonight, there is a chance for thunderstorms to track across portions of eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt late this evening into the overnight hours. Severe weather is not anticipated, though brief heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms. As we head into early Friday into Friday night as a more substantial increase in moisture arrives. PWATs climb 1.0"+ while dewpoints rise into the 60s, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the day and into Friday night. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds appear to be the primary hazards, though it cannot be ruled out that a few stronger storms could be capable of producing small hail. SPC has the far southern portion of northwest Lower in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for Friday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms look to linger into portions of Saturday as a shortwave crosses the region before gradually departing east. Drier air and high pressure return thereafter, bringing a stretch of mainly dry weather Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will trend warmer once again, with highs returning in well into the 80s and potentially climbing even higher by mid next week, should ridging remain firmly in place.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the issuance period across northern Michigan. Weak/calm winds tonight will increase out of the southwest this morning. Sustained winds around 10 kts are anticipated at most sites with gusts to 20-25 kts possible through the afternoon. Lake breeze formation will likely develop along the Lake Huron shoreline, but will struggle to push more than a few miles inland due to aforementioned southwest winds. Wind speeds look to diminish below 10 kts after 00Z Friday. Cloud cover will also begin to increase late in the issuance period, but remain well above MVFR thresholds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.