textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding concerns through at least midweek, particularly across eastern upper and far northern lower Michigan where snowpack meltoff may agitate already elevated water levels.

- Rain and thunder, heavy at times, to continue overspreading the region and lasting through tonight.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Heavy rain possible again. Potential for severe thunderstorms later Monday night and again Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures through the week, trending back below normal next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis: The majority of the forecast period continues to be dominated by a relatively shallow trof west/ridge east configuration across much of North America. The flow is split at times, though when this occurs forecast area is still under the influence of the warmer southern branch. The southwesterly upstream flow this week will transport an unseasonably moist air mass into the area, with embedded disturbances bringing periodic chances of showers and some thunderstorms.

Forecast Details: Impressive rainfall has been falling across much of northern Lower Michigan for most of the day and continues at this hour. Water vapor imagery shows a good tropical connection of moisture streaming up from the Gulf in deep southerly flow. Precipitable water values over the area are an unseasonably moist 1.5" or so. There should be a brief lull in the heavier rainfall this evening as a disturbance departs the area, but an MCV moving out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will be quickly on its heels tonight.

A bigger lull in the shower/storm risk is anticipated for most of Monday/Monday evening as short wave ridging builds across the area. Intense convection is expected to develop over the upper Midwest late Monday, moving across the forecast area in a weaker state after midnight Monday night/early Tuesday. That being said, significant elevated instability will have stronger storms capable of producing severe hail. This convection will likely push a stalled southwest/northeast oriented frontal boundary southeast into Lower Michigan which will serve as a focus for additional convection later Wednesday into Thursday.

Another break in the rainfall threat is anticipated Thursday night into Friday. The next disturbance arrives by Saturday with a renewed risk for widespread rainfall.

Expanded Flood Watch to encompass the entire forecast area into Wednesday morning. This is to account for the rain that has just fallen as well as what is expected into midweek. There have already been reports of localized flooding and river/stream levels are notably rising across much of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Rain showers will continue through the night with a brief lull in activity Monday. Mixed bag of conditions currently ranging from VFR to LIFR are expected to continue through most of the period with showers and embedded thunderstorms making conditions variable. General trends point towards perhaps bettering conditions for northern Lower terminals this evening ahead of an additional wave of showers to pass through. Southerly winds will increase through this evening into tonight with gusts 25-35 knots tonight. Winds will then decrease heading into Monday morning remaining somewhat breezy to the end of the period (gusts 15-20 knots). LLWS looks to continue into tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.