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KEY MESSAGES

- More smoke today, with rather rapid improvement expected tonight. Smoke may return later Saturday and Sunday

- Low risk for a few severe thunderstorms tonight, with gusty winds and marginally severe size hail the primary concerns.

- Additional shower/storm chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Smoke...and more smoke. Direct connection to southern Canada/northern Minnesota originated smoke plume continues, with widespread visibility restrictions continuing across the Northwoods at this early hour. Broad west/northwest flow aloft within ridge/trough interface helping drive this smoke across the Great Lakes. Well defined embedded shortwave within this flow beginning its southeast descent into western Manitoba, with its weak surface reflection running well out ahead of it into the northern Plains and southern Manitoba. Smoke plume driven differential heating boundary/quasi-stationary surface boundary running southeast from this surface low into Western Wisconsin and down into Illinois, with the northern portion of this front starting to show westward advance as the parent surface low does the same.

Manitoba wave will continue to amplify as it dives into southern Ontario and Lake Superior tonight, exiting stage right as we head through the day Saturday. Attendant deep layer forcing from shortwave itself and that approaching surface low/frontal features will help drive an increasing shower and thunderstorm threat across the area later today into Saturday morning. Some good news however as this system will give us least a temporary break from this unhealthy smoke plume to at least start the weekend.

Additional waves within prevailing northwest flow aloft look to bring additional rain chances heading into early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Smoke trends and addressing severe thunderstorm potential later today into tonight.

Details:

Big story for the daytime hours of today will remain the smoke, with simple extrapolation and high res guidance plumes showing thick and unhealthy levels of smoke centered across much of the area today. Otherwise, may see a few showers make a run into the area this afternoon as initial surge of deeper moisture advection pushes into the western Great Lakes. Not expecting any widespread rain or severe concern with this intial shower threat. Better chances for showers/storms arrive tonight as forcing/low level jet dynamics and deeper moisture becoming more aligned. Trends support an upstream convective complex(s) to make run into the area overnight, especially across upper Michigan. Additional showers/storms likely to form along veering low level jet and enhanced cold pool dynamics as activity slides southeast with time. However, confidence on how this all plays out remains low, especially with incredible uncertainty in how deep smoke with interfere with upstream convective development. Much of our area remains in marginal risk wording for severe weather, highlighting gusty winds and marginally severe size hail as the primary concern. Again, uncertainty is high, so future updates to the forecast leaving the house early this morning are more than anticipated. As mentioned, this system looks to give us at least a temporary break in the smoke as deepest smoke plume gets jettisoned off to our east tonight. Some additional smoke looks to again filter south into our area later Saturday, although current trends show this to be not nearly as robust.

Shower/storm threat looks to end rather quickly later Saturday morning and afternoon as low pressure exits off to our east. High pressure settles right overhead Saturday night and Sunday, resulting in dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures to round out the weekend. Next wave and perhaps rather vigorous cold front look to arrive early next week, bringing additional shower/storm chances along with them. Current trends support deep northwest flow overhead within impressive northeast NOAM centered troughing much of next week, keeping our temperatures a touch on the cool side of normal. We shall see.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Widespread VSBY reductions will likely continue across northern Michigan into Friday afternoon/evening. Observations ranging from 1- 2SM are expected to continue into Friday for most areas with little change overall. Calm winds may allow wildfire smoke to settle, resulting in local VSBY reductions below 1SM for a time tonight. Additionally, some relief may come to parts of far northeast lower Michigan (including APN) Friday afternoon with northeast low-level flow potentially pushing some smoke-free air into the area for a short period of time. VSBY reductions may also rise at MBL and TVC Friday evening as densest smoke works to the north.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.