textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Major winter storm is expected to track across Northern Michigan this Sunday through Monday. Latest trends support icing and widespread accumulating snow across northern parts of the CWA.

-Continued waves of energy track through the region next week. Rounds of light precipitation are expected at times through the remainder of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The 500mb longwave pattern remains straddled over the majority of North America, with a strong jet max positioned over the northern CONUS. A clipper system currently over Upstate New York continues to progress eastward, drawing dry air into the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure will keep conditions quiet across the CWA today before strong low pressure develops over the Central Plains and tracks through the Midwest. Deep mid-level troughing positions its axis over the central U.S., while a strong thermal gradient positions itself over the Great Lakes region with freezing H8 temperatures dissecting Northern Michigan in half. Classic cyclogenesis lee of the Rockies will lift northeast and deliver widespread snowfall as early as tonight. Strong warm air advection with efficient moisture transport from the Gulf will continue heavy snowfall and mixed precipitation through Monday before the surface cyclone departs to the northeast.

Midlevel ridging begins to develop over the Southwest midweek next week, causing heights to gradually rise over the Great Lakes region. This pattern will support surface temperatures slowly climbing through the remainder of the forecast period with highs near climatological normal for mid-March. Small embedded energy waves track through the region at times, delivering periods of precipitation, but no widespread impactful weather is expected to impact Northern Michigan after the Sunday/Monday system.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Major winter storm is expected to track across Northern Michigan this Sunday through Monday. Latest trends support icing and widespread accumulating snow across northern parts of the CWA... Warm advection driven snowfall will begin to spread in tonight across the entire CWA. Guidance displays trends of a northward shift in p-types as deeper midlevel troughing shifts the previously mentioned tight thermal gradient over the Straits region. Strong southerly warm air advection will occur Sunday morning, pushing snow north of the bridge and introducing mixed precipitation across Northern Lower...specifically the Tip of the Mitt. Thermal profiles appear warm enough Sunday afternoon through Monday to support rainfall across the most of northern Lower, along with strong mid- level lapse rates and instability to introduce convection. After the cyclone's core tracks across the CWA Monday evening, backside cold air advection will return all p-types to snow with strong enough delta-T's to carry lake effect snow showers through Tuesday morning.

Confidence in storm track remain very low while QPF totals have been consistent, as the highest snowfall totals favor areas NW of the CWA. Nevertheless, with QPF totals of 1.5" to 2.5" across most of the CWA, widespread disruptions to travel are likely. Snowfall totals of 1-2+ feet are expected across eastern Upper (especially western Chippewa and Mackinac Counties), while lower ratios and the introduction of rain and mixed precipitation favor most of northern Lower. Highest icing amounts favor the Straits and sections of northern lower with accumulations of 0.25"+. Power outages and if even higher end icing materializes, disruptions to infrastructure not out of the question. River flooding remains a concern worth mentioning as guidance depicts a couple of our area rivers exceeding action stage by early next week.

-Continued waves of energy track through the region next week. Rounds of light precipitation are expected at times through the remainder of the forecast period... Tuesday morning remains the coldest period through the forecast period as backside cold air advection from the departing storm system draws cold cP air into the CWA. Strong Delta Ts continue lake effect snow showers this Tuesday before temperatures begin to climb the rest of the week. The previously mentioned ridging will cause heights to rise across the Midwest through the rest of the week, supporting surface temps to gradually climb to climatological norms. Only precipitation expected after Tuesday will be generated from embedded height disturbances tracking snow across the region this Wednesday followed by round of rainfall around the Thursday night/Friday timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Improving conditions tonight. Low pressure is departing eastward, and an area of enhanced wraparound snow is diminishing and exiting eastward as well. A touch of light lake effect snow is kicking up in its wake, but that will be temporary. IFR/MVFR conditions initially, but improvement will occur overnight. MVFR and then VFR conditions will develop by daybreak, and persist thru Saturday. However, clouds will increase and lower late in the day, and snow is likely to break out again at MBL toward the very tail end of this TAF period.

Gusty nnw winds tonight, especially early. Light winds Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for LSZ321-322.