textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat to gradually relent after day

- Smoke/haze Wednesday/Thursday, at least

- Showers/storms return by Friday night/Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Wnw-ese oriented 500mb heat ridge will get slowly suppressed southward, as various shortwaves dig into northern Ontario and, more broadly, eastern Canada. Searing temps will gradually ease over the next couple of days as this happens. However, deeper nw to northerly flow will bring some smoke concerns in at least the near-term. Better precip chances will await the end of the week and carry into the weekend.

A scalding 104f observed at OSC this afternoon, 100f at GDW. Plenty of 80s and 90s elsewhere, coolest near Lake MI, with a w to wnw synoptic breeze. The eastern UP was held back by a smoke layer aloft this morning, which cut down heating in the first half of the day. As opposed to yesterday, diurnal heating/mixing has brought down somewhat drier air in our hottest locales, with upper 50s to lower 60s dew points s central and se. Mid 60s to near 70f elsewhere, plenty sticky (though less hot). Heat indices are generally staying in the 90s, except for the far se, near 100f. Ongoing heat advisory looks ok to go down this evening. Heat indices should still push toward the mid 90s in Gladwin/Arenac/Iosco Cos tomorrow (cooler elsewhere), and "only" the upper 80s Thursday.

Not much in the way of water/ice clouds out there, mainly a band of cu in the eastern UP. Far northern MN is seeing some convection develop. The RAP is the guidance that is most inclined to spit out a stray shower tonight in eastern upper MI, and though there seems a lot of relatively dry air to deal with, would not be completely and utterly to see an isolated shower. But can't go higher than a silent 10% pop. Similarly dry and quiet for sensible wx in the next or two...with one exception.

Smoke. As the mid-level flow becomes more nw-erly and increases (with the 500mb ridge displaced southward), smoke will overspread more of the central and northern lakes for the next couple of days. The base of the smoke layer was only 2500-3500ft agl earlier today, and we can easily mix that high today, and going forward. Vsbys have lowering in a few spots, Rogers City in particular down to 4SM in HZ. Surface smoke seems likely to become prominent overnight in the eastern UP, and further expand and/or mix down into northern lower MI on Wednesday. Significant reductions to vsby (between 1 and 3SM) are at least possible. This could certainly be enough to keep max temps from rising as far as they would otherwise, and the forecast was pushed a bit in that direction. (Another reason I'm reluctant to extend our heat advisory any further.) For now, Thursday looks to be pretty similar to Wednesday.

The most prominent shortwave digging into northern lakes looks to be on the way Saturday-ish. Chances for showers/storms will lift back into the area as soon as early Friday, and good chance to likely pops are in order Friday night/Saturday. The weekend should close on a mainly dry note, before some rain chances return early next week. Temps will continue a slow decline to mid-summer norms for the weekend, perhaps slipping cooler yet early next week.

..Reduced Visibilities Due To Smoke

A large area of smoke over Lake Superior due to Canadian wildfires will slide southeast into northern Michigan through Wednesday. Reductions in visibility are likely, although it is difficult to determine how low visibilities may go. Certainly 4-6sm FU appear likely, with some possibility of lower IFR visibilities. Will go with mainly higher clouds right now, with lower cigs possible based on how opaque the smoke layer becomes. Light winds tonight will become gusty up to 20kt from the northwest on Wednesday (helping to bring that smoke area into our area).

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344-345.