textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Extended period of below normal temperatures

- Unsettled with scattered shower chances through Friday, a few snow showers possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

An extended period of cool and unsettled weather across the Great Lakes into early next week as an anamously cold and deep trough settles over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Although no large storm systems on the horizon, embedded shortwave energy around the deepening upper low will keep shower chances in the forecast on many days. The overall pattern has some staying power as well, as the first upper low slides into Quebec, it is replaced with additional upstream energy that helps to carve out the trough once again. Overall, a less than stellar forecast heading into early May with well below normal temperatures and occasional light precipitation chances.

The upper low closes off over the northern lakes tonight with cooling temperatures aloft bringing 850mb temperatures toward -6C by Thursday morning. The biggest question tonight is cloud cover, with lingering amounts of 850-500mb moisture rotating across the area around developing upper low. There will likely be at least partial clearing for much of area overnight under cold air advection. Despite the clouds, many areas will fall to near or below freezing and will put up a freeze warning much of interior northern lower, with frost advisories around the fringes.

Cold pool aloft squarely overhead northern Michigan on Thursday with embedded shortwave energy sliding across the area. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates with just enough moisture up to 700mb will likely result in the development of a few diurnal showers (snow showers possible interior areas). This pattern largely continues into the day on Friday, with additional embedded shortwave energy and the possibility of a few rain or snow showers.

Some moderation in temperatures (although still below normal) by Sunday into the first part of next week as the upper low slides into Quebec and we wait for the next piece of upstream energy to drop into the Great Lakes to reinforce the trough. Mainly dry Saturday, with gradually increasing shower chances by later Sunday into early next week as that next piece of upstream energy arrives.

Likely several days with frost/freeze threats into this weekend, with additional threats next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will continue through most of tonight (MBL as an exception for now) with northwest winds becoming light. Winds will increase once again Thursday with gusts 15-20 knots by the afternoon (highest likely at PLN, TVC, and CIU). Light shower chances through this evening with clouds trying to clear tonight. A few shower chances possible at times Thursday (mainly across CIU, PLN, and APN) with some snow possibly mixing in, a window of MVFR conditions will be possible for all sites during this time with lowering ceilings.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018- 021>023-027>029-032>034-099. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ024-026- 030-035. MARINE...None.