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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances begin to flourish late afternoon and evening. - Windy and cooler Friday with continued showers.

- Winds remain elevated this weekend, milder as well on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Current water vapor satellite imagery shows two prominent, and necessary, features of note to our west. First is an upper low in the vicinity of the front range, another is a trough digging across Canada and the adjacent Dakotas. Relatively weak sfc reflections associated with both of these features, although the low pressure system associated with the upper low near the front range will inject an anomalous amount of moisture northward into northern Michigan later today and tonight as it tracks northeast across southwest Michigan.

Warm, moist advection in conjunction with synoptic forcing will overspread the region beginning this afternoon, and remaining into portions of the overnight hours. Steady moderate rain is expected as a result, spreading from southwest to northeast on the north and northwest of the surface low track. Bit of a lull overnight due to the sfc low track for some. As the surface low pulls off to the northeast through the day on Friday, winds shift to the NNW with showers continuing. Cold advection and crashing H850 temps will result in lake convection as well, and thus through the day the typical NNW lake effect zones will become favored with continued showers. When all is said and done, the latest guidance shows a healthy swath of ~0.60-1.0"+ of rain, with local highs and lows, possible by Friday evening. Pressure gradient tightens as the sfc low moves off to the east with increasing low level winds. Wind gusts look to be in the 25 to 40 mph range, highest near Lake Michigan and during the late afternoon and evening. Moisture, synoptic ascent, and the pressure gradient relinquish through the night on Friday, and thus, precipitation chances, and winds, wane through the night.

Significant troughing moving west to east across Canada this weekend will result in deepening low pressure system across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and up into the vicinity of Hudson Bay. At the same time, sfc high pressure will reside and slowly shift across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. In-between these two surface features (N MI) will be a strengthening pressure gradient and thus breezy to windy conditions. Windiest day will be Sunday. It will still be cool on Saturday but by Sunday, those southwest winds will usher in a milder mass, with 60s expected.

Heights aloft remain above normal through the early to middle portions of next week. Consequently, high temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year, with 60s common. The pattern will also be conducive to dry conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 513 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

MVFR CIGs continue through much of the day, occasionally low VFR. Moisture continues to increase throughout the day, with a steady rain beginning during he afternoon and evening. Steadier rain begins ~18-21Z MBL & TVC, and 21-00Z other terminals, continuing into the overnight hours. As such, VSBYs drop (~2-3SM) and so do CIGs, generally IFR and LIFR this evening and overnight. Southeast winds generally on the lighter side today.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322.