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KEY MESSAGES

-Light snow across northern lower today, with lake effect possible near Whitefish Point through the day.

-Cold tonight with subzero lows on the table across the interior.

-Several waves set to pass through the long term forecast period... specifically Monday night, Tuesday night - Wednesday, and again this weekend. Lake enhancement / lake effect possible at various times with these wave passages.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 259 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Robust longwave troughing over eastern NOAM remains locked into place... with a weak impulse currently over Wisconsin continuing to be forced eastward by strong, cold west / northwesterly flow. Weakening thermal gradient and lack of supporting jet dynamics will essentially translate to a light snowfall across much of lower Michigan through the morning hours... perhaps 1 to 2 inches of accumulation, locally up to 3" along the Lake Michigan shores. In the wake of this system, will see some light lake effect activity across the NNW to NW flow snowbelts. Moisture is a bit lacking as upstream subsidence intruding.

In addition, weak pressure gradient will continue to lead to land- lake breeze shenanigans off Lake Superior today into tonight, which may feed an additional 2 to 4 inches of snowfall across western Chippewa County (think Paradise / Whitefish Point). Will have to watch this feature closely... the theme from previous forecasts still holds, as there is always potential for convergence driven bands of snow / mesolow generation, but guidance doesn't seem to jump all over this idea... so will have to continue to keep a watch out for that.

Meanwhile, big upstream 1030+ mb surface high with arctic origins over the northern Plains and Canadian prairies will charge south and east into the Great Lakes... which will eventually put an end to the snow activity... with winds decoupling and skies clearing across much of the area into tonight, save for the NW lower shoreline and portions of eastern upper. As such, our natural "refrigeration unit"... aka... the established snowpack... will be put into overdrive across the interior of northern lower. While shoreline locales probably stall out in the single digits into the teens... interior locales seem like a solid bet to be below zero by Monday morning. Wouldn't be overly surprising to see the interior "icebox" areas (Grayling, Mio, Atlanta) make a run at -10.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 259 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

The active wintry pattern continues its influence across the region through the remainder of the forecast period.

Monday - Tuesday: Following what will likely be the coldest morning of the young winter season thus far, we will trend right back into an active regime with another quick moving clipper-like system passing through the Great Lakes. Synoptic snowfall looks marginal at best... most places probably wind up with a general 1 to 3 inches of snow later Monday night into Tuesday. That being said... with the cold locked into place, antecedent SSW flow looks to kick off a SSW flow lake effect boundary off Lake Michigan that could set its sights on Mackinac County (in particular, the western part of the county) and perhaps far SW Chippewa. This area could see totals in excess of 6 inches from this event. In the wake of the system... perhaps some lingering westerly flow lake effect. Definitely one to keep our eyes on.

Tuesday night - Thursday: No time to put our feet up just yet, as another system... this time with a bit more beef to it... looks to quickly pass through later Tuesday night into Wednesday, and could deliver a bigger swath of snow to the region. Current probs for 4" of accumulation through Wednesday evening sit at 60% across much of the area, slightly lower in eastern upper... and touching 40% across interior northern lower for totals reaching 6 inches across northern lower. This system will have a superb warm advection surge to drive the snowfall... so will have to watch thermodynamics, especially the farther south one goes... as surface temps may balloon high enough to lead to some rain mixing in if higher end warm advection can be realized, and snow ratios in general may be lower than current guidance is depicting (outside of any FGEN bullseyes). Lake effect snow showers seem like a good bet on the backside of this system as colder air surges back into the region, which would primarily be a Wednesday night - Thursday phenom.

Friday / Weekend: The core of an arctic airmass looks to make its way through the region, sending temperatures well below normal across the Northwoods. Preceded by a shortwave and persistent cold advection, this looks like it could feature prolonged lake effect snow potential across the snowbelt locales. For the time being, looks like several days with highs generally in the teens to near 20 and lows in the single digits. As such, for those looking to cash in on the early onset of winter activities may contend with snowy conditions on area roads when making the trek up to the Northwoods.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Generally VFR with a few sites MVFR/IFR due to -SN. Winds remain light and off shore. -SN over KTVC/KMBL will be exiting after 16Z, with terminal impacts likely improving to VFR/MVFR after 14Z. Winds turn northwest shortly after the beginning of the period (as the widespread -SN exits), becoming 7 to 12 with G15 to 20kts. Initial bursts of lake effect SHSN could lead to intermittent vis and cig reductions at KCIU/KPLN, with chances for this a KTVC being after 18Z. Periods of VFR should be seen by most sites after 20Z, however some coastal terminals could see MVFR cigs creep overhead after 03Z (KPLN/KAPN) as land breeze boundaries set up off shore tonight. Low chances for -SN impacts tonight at this time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.