textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning, strong winds, and shower/storm chances continue through today.

- Seasonably cool temperatures Tuesday through the rest of the week will consistently bring frost/freeze concerns across Northern Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Northern stream troughing will continue to punch across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into tonight as the associated surface cyclone treks across Ontario and settling over James Bay. Meanwhile, the attendant front will swing across northern Michigan this evening and early tonight. Troughing appears it will drape itself across the region through the remainder of this week and even this upcoming weekend. At the surface, high pressure will build across much of the Great Plains and Midwest this week, nosing into the Great Lakes as well through the middle of the week. Shortwaves embedded in the main flow may rotate through late this week, providing sufficient forcing for a few potential weak systems to track across the area heading into this weekend and early next week.

Forecast Details:

A Red Flag Warning has been issued through 9 PM this evening due to the combination of sustained winds of 15-25 mph gusting to 30-45+ mph, low RHs in the 20-30 percent range, and dry fine fuels. See the latest Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Planning Discussion for more details. A few showers and storms are possible through this afternoon as well with the best chances coming across the eastern U.P. and far northern lower. Aforementioned low RHs/dry low-level airmass will make for a hostile environment for any falling precip to reach the ground -- likely limiting areal extent and certainly amounts. Slightly better chances for showers/storms will come this evening and tonight as the front works through and low-level moisture increases -- especially across northeast lower. Overall, rainfall amounts under 0.25" are expected for most areas heading into Tuesday morning.

To the dismay of many around the Northwoods, the mild weather today will be short lived as much cooler temperatures surge back in behind the front tonight and stick around into this upcoming weekend. The primary concern will be the potential for another string of frost/freeze concerns for numerous nights ahead -- beginning Tuesday night and possibly continuing into early next week. Depending on winds and cloud cover on individual nights ahead, lows could dip well into the 20s again for interior low-lying areas that saw the coldest readings during this last stretch of frost/freeze headlines. On top of the cool nights, afternoon highs look to stay in the upper 40s to mid 50s through at least Thursday, and possibly only warming a few degrees this weekend. These temperatures would be around 10 degrees cooler than average for early May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Main issue thru rest of afternoon is winds, with gusts already 35- 45kts and think this will only continue; not impossible winds could be stronger, though, esp between 21-3z as wind shift from SW to NW/N comes through. Brief period of lighter winds for a couple hours before picking back up to 10-15kts after 6z, esp after daybreak, with gusts around 20-25kts after 12z. SHRA/TSRA possible this afternoon into this evening but should wind down after 3-6z. Cigs likely remain VFR; could touch MVFR for a brief period this evening but not likely to stay there. Cu/strato-cu redevelops during the morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.