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KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger continues through Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return late week into early part of weekend.

- Warm temperatures continue next week with mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Temperatures continue to rise on Thursday (mid to upper 80s), as high pressure to the south remains an influencing factor. Deep afternoon mixing will result in breezy and dry conditions and thus, high fire danger once again. Boundary layer winds are ~15-20 KTs, and so wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are likely, slightly higher west of 75. Given the deep mixing, briefly stronger gusts will be possible. Otherwise, high and dry on Thursday as energy out of the Plains coagulates and moves eastward.

Our next chance for meaningful precipitation will be ~Friday and Friday night as a mess of upper energy and sfc boundaries work into northern Michigan. As this activity moves eastward on Friday, a notable uptick in moisture is anticipated, with PWs ~1.5"+ and dewpoints approaching the lower 60s. Consequently, showers and thunderstorms will develop across northern MI. Definitely some questions regarding morning showers on Friday and how that will impact instability and any severe/heavy rain threat. Current guidance hints at the best moderate rain potential near Manistee and vicinity as thunderstorms develop west of Lake Michigan and attempt to move east as an MCS, to some degree. This is also where the best pool of instability will likely reside. Something to fine tune in the coming shifts as these subtle pieces of energy, some convectively agitated, all interact. Thought process at this time is for a band of showers to move in early to midday Friday, with the best potential for thunderstorms later Friday and Friday night, especially with any activity that moves in off of Lake Michigan. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday as another short wave swings through and phases with some of the ongoing loose energies east of northern MI.

Upper high builds over the Great Lakes Region Sunday through next week. Guidance showing >590 decameter high pressure influencing northern MI as a matter of fact. Consequently, temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to at least during the early to middle portions of next week. In fact, NBM probs for high temps 90F or more steadily increase through next week. That being said, if high pressure drifts a little to the east, then moisture and a renewed chance for showers and storms will develop. Conversely, if high pressure remains locked in overhead, warm/hot and dry weather will remain. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the issuance period across northern Michigan. Weak/calm winds tonight will increase out of the southwest this morning. Sustained winds around 10 kts are anticipated at most sites with gusts to 20-25 kts possible through the afternoon. Lake breeze formation will likely develop along the Lake Huron shoreline, but will struggle to push more than a few miles inland due to aforementioned southwest winds. Wind speeds look to diminish below 10 kts after 00Z Friday. Cloud cover will also begin to increase late in the issuance period, but remain well above MVFR thresholds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.