textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/thunderstorms return midweek. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern.

- Trending drier for much of the weekend into at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Shortwave ridging continues locally this afternoon before turning more zonal later tonight and eventually weakly troughed later Wednesday into Thursday. Attendant nearly stationary/slow-moving frontal boundary will make slow southeastward progress across northern Michigan Wednesday through Thursday, providing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Thursday, generally drier conditions expected to prevail locally. That said, latest trends continue to suggest there'll be a northern stream wave or two to monitor over the coming weekend into early next week for at least low precip chances as impressive ridging/heat dome builds upstream over the Front Range and central/southern Plains.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated across much of northern MI this afternoon through tonight, although a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE and lake breeze processes may be enough to kick off an isolated shower/storm across the eastern U.P. this afternoon. Chances for this are low, but not quite low enough to not mention.

Focus turns to the very late tonight through Thursday. Several pieces of shortwave energy will have influence across the area, along with a slow-moving boundary that'll crawl southeast across the forecast area through this time frame. By Wednesday morning, deep layer moisture expected to already be in place across the eastern U.P. with PWs in excess of 1.5-1.75". This moisture gradually sags south with time Wednesday afternoon/night into Thursday. Greatest instability on Wednesday with focus over northern areas as well -- with the heaviest rain potential during the day Wednesday across the eastern U.P., the tip of the mitt, perhaps stretching down into sections of northwest lower by late in the day. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall across these areas.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, best forcing gradually slides southeast, eventually shifting the axis of most numerous showers/ storms over a broader area of northern lower. WPC's excessive rain outlook for Thursday features much of northern lower in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4).

Localized instances of flash flooding appear to be the main threat with these showers/storms, especially if the axis of best forcing and instability manifest across parts of the forecast area, given efficient rain production and potential for training convection. While this threat is area-wide, it's likely heightened for those where FFG is lowest as a result of heavy rain several days ago (tip of the mitt, parts of Leelanau, Antrim, Charlevoix counties).

While severe weather doesn't appear to be a glaring threat, limited instability combined with increased flow aloft and 25-35 kts of 0- 6km shear may result in a few stronger storms capable of producing damaging winds Wednesday into Wednesday night. This lines up pretty well with SPC's latest D2 SWO that paints a Marginal Risk (level 1/5 across much of northern lower, with a higher threat for severe storms to our west across WI. This low end threat may continue across parts of northeast lower MI Thursday.

Trending drier Friday into the weekend. Main story across the CONUS during this time likely to be impressive ridging/heat dome building across the Intermountain West into the nation's midsection (600+ dM 500mb heights possible by Monday -- some +2 to 3 sigma above climatological mean). Uncertainty exists how far north and east this feature builds late in the weekend into next week, which will play driver to our sensible weather locally. Latest trends suggest warming temperatures heading into early next week, with limited precip chances, but should this upper high remain suppressed south and west, additional precip chances would become more likely.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR condtions persist through most of the issuance period with increasing cloud cover tonight. Mainly light winds with lake breezes continue this afternoon, but could get an occasional gust 10-15 kts this afternoon. Winds turn calm tonight with increasing clouds, especially across KCIU. May see a few showers/storms impact KMBL and KPLN toward sunrise Wednesday, but cloud bases should remain VFR until later in the morning. Shower/ storm chances will increase through the day Wednesday turning conditions MVFR/ IFR (mainly across KMBL and KPLN) with isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible...with any stronger storms, flight conditions could temporarily drop to IFR or lower due to potential heavy rain and gusty winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.