textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/ thunderstorm chances continue into today, locally heavy rain remains possible across northeast Lower.

- Seasonable temperatures persist through the end of the week with occasional shower chances as we head into the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1053 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

12Z surface analysis shows the remnants of a old frontal boundary lingering across the tip of the Thumb and southern Lower Michigan (north of LAN but south of GRR); boundary stuck within a broader area of high pressure across the upper Great Lakes. Northwest- southeast oriented moisture gradient across the upper Lakes this morning: precipitable water values at or below 0.75 inch across Upper Michigan...and near 1.50 inches across southeast Lower (1.01 inches off the 12Z APX sounding/1.48 inches at DTX). Fairly strong short wave trough/dynamic PV anomaly sweeping across Wisconsin/Upper Michigan this morning...upward vertical motion ahead of this wave already spreading into northwest Lower per water vapor imagery. Short wave trough currently moving through the "dry" side of the moisture gradient. Area of St and lifting fog across northwest Lower...with some Sc across northeast Lower and sunny skies over eastern Upper farther into the drier air. Only precipitation in Lower Michigan was near the boundary over the Thumb.

Short wave trough swings through during the early afternoon hours... followed by large scale subsidence/drying. Best chance for renewed convective development today will probably be along the Lake Huron lake breeze across northeast Lower.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Cold front will continue its slow progression across Michigan, bringing additional rounds of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. Guidance continues to suggest the front will track southeastward, but perhaps it may stall near Saginaw Bay? However, precipitation should diminish/ move largely out of the area by at least early afternoon if not sooner (some lingering chances near Saginaw Bay if the front does stall in that vicinity as being advertised). Northeast Lower, remains the area most favored for more locally heavy rainfall today, where more rounds of showers look to track across the region into perhaps the early afternoon, especailly far southeast areas near Saginaw Bay. Locations across northeast Lower have reported receiving around roughly 1 to 2 inches from last evening/ last nights showers. A few showers look possible Friday afternoon/evening mainly across northeast Lower between the departing front and the next incoming disturbance.

Forecast thinking beyond Friday remains largely unchanged. A broader longwave trough is still expected to become established across the Great Lakes through the weekend and into early next week, keeping any meaningful heat displaced to our south while maintaining a generally west to northwest flow aloft. Within that flow, subtle shortwaves are expected to rotate through the region, although confidence remains fairly low regarding the exact timing and placement of these disturbances. As a result, maintaining periodic chances for showers and a few thunderstorms from Friday night through Monday. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably cool for early August, though highs could trend a bit lower should a more persistent cloud cover and showery scenario ultimately materializes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Lingering low level Cu will dissipate this afternoon followed by mostly SKC tonight combined with light and VRB winds. BR will develop at KMBL, dropping VSBYs to MVFR and periodically IFR between 0600Z and 1300Z tonight/Friday morning. Light winds veer to the west this Friday with SCT low level Cu re-development during the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.