textproduct: Gaylord
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Few showers this weekend (after trick-or-treating) with slowly warming temps.
- Increasing rain chances begins Monday afternoon.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Happy Halloween.
An unrelated note: daylight savings time ends tonight.
High pressure is crossing lower MI early this morning, moving slowly ese-ward. Some areas of low lake effect cloud cover linger over eastern upper and far ne lower MI. Thin cirrus is also encroaching on southern areas. A chilly morning, but to this point little in the way of fog.
Trailing behind the surface high, a 500mb shortwave ridge over the northern plains will be moving over our heads Sunday afternoon. Some troffing is butting into the ridge axis by then, immediately trailing it. There are some convective-looking elements on radar and satellite to our w, from WI westward. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will attempt to generate some light showers, though mostly just result in virga here. Still, a few showers are possible after midnight tonight into Sunday morning. This should provide minimal interruption to Halloween plans.
Otherwise quiet Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Models are a little faster today in starting to erode heights aloft later Monday, in face of a strengthening low level jet and associated theta-e advection. A chance of showers could reach nw lower MI as soon as Monday afternoon. This is in advance of an evolving upper low and strung-out surface low in the plains and eventually MS Valley. Likely to categorical pops Monday night into early Wednesday, with multiple rounds of showers expected. No thunder currently, but some respectable rainfall regardless.
With at least some sporadic stream interactions next week, the forecast gets less certain midweek and beyond. ECMWF is much wetter, as low pressure now passes a bit to our south late in the week. Others have a weaker system ejecting to our north, with smaller precip chances.
Temps will remain above normal. We will be warming from today to about Tuesday, then likely gradually cooling again after that.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
VFR. A touch of cu today, and some thickening mid clouds arriving tonight. Not impossible for an isolated shower after 04Z/midnight tonight. Light winds.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None. MARINE...None.
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