textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-High pressure continues seasonably normal fall-like temperatures build this week no precipitation expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

A midlevel split flow-pattern begins to build across North America this morning with ridging over the Northern Plains while low amplitude troughing spans the southern U.S. Midlevel ridging will support subsidence aloft this morning and cause surface high pressure to build across the Great Lakes region through the next several days. H8 temperatures in the single digits will keep temperatures seasonably normal through the entirety of the forecast period with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Cloud cover will continue to dissipate and progress south this morning as the stationary boundary currently occupying the Appalachians moves downstream. High pressure building over central Ontario will keep conditions quiet and dry over the CWA throughout the entirety of the forecast period. Efficient overnight radiational cooling will drop lows into the mid/upper 30s across interior eastern upper and northern lower leading to another round of patchy frost development tonight. Otherwise, conditions remain climatologically normal for late September with highs in the 60s for most areas while efficient overnight radiational cooling processes drop lows into the upper 30s to low 40s. Other than ideal fall conditions for hardwood color development, no out-of-the-ordinary or active weather is expected at this time. Long-range ensembles continue to hint at low-end chances of showers midweek next week as a shortwave lifts across the Northern Plains, but confidence in any appreciable (if any) rainfall reaching the Great Lakes Region remains low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR likely to prevail with high pressure in the region; low chance for MVFR at APN and perhaps TVC if lake breeze develops this afternoon, but not likely. Cloud deck around 15-25kft looks to hang on for MBL thru rest of the day and perhaps into the night. Surface winds largely remain E/NE but should diminish to 5-10kts or less tonight and will have concerns for land breezes at TVC/APN in particular...with E winds prevailing thru the end of the TAF period. Some LLWS expected overnight (around 25kts from the E/ENE), esp for PLN and south. Do wonder about some fog overnight tonight but not confident attm, except perhaps at APN thru 6z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ018- 024-030-036-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ347. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ342- 344.