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KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/Freeze concerns continue through Saturday night.

- Well below average temperatures and periods of light rain/snow showers continue through Saturday.

- After a brief warm up, below-average temperatures return next week with additional frost/freeze concerns possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive troughing draped from the northern Great Plains over to New England will continue to churn in place through the first half of this weekend. Shortwaves embedded in the main flow will rotate overhead at times through Saturday, providing enough forcing aloft to help keep relatively low pressure in place across the Great Lakes over the next few days. Western ridging eventually slides over the region during the second half of the weekend, temporarily building in surface high pressure Sunday. Additional strong troughing is expected to dig back across the region early next week.

Forecast Details:

The primary forecast concern will be below-freezing temperatures/frost conditions across many areas of northern Michigan over the next several nights -- especially Friday night. Ongoing rain/snow showers are expected to gradually diminish in coverage this evening into tonight with at least partial cloud cover hanging around into Friday morning. As was the case last night, this complicates the low temperature forecast for tonight. These expected clouds and weak northwest winds should help keep temperatures warmer than would be the case otherwise with clear skies and calm winds. That said, current confidence is that many areas away from the lakeshores will drop near/below freezing later tonight and early Friday morning -- with the highest likelihood for sub-freezing temperatures coming across localized low-lying areas in the interior higher terrain. While less likely, breaks in cloud cover and calm winds could allow some spots to dip into the upper 20s. A freeze warning has been issued for most interior northern lower Michigan counties with frost advisories hoisted for most lakeshore counties where overnight lows between 33-36 degrees are likely.

More substantial freeze concerns are on the horizon for Friday night where high chances (70+ percent) exist for interior areas to drop below freezing. Typical low-lying cold spots across the area could even see temperatures dip into the low to mid 20s. Due to this, a freeze watch has been issued for all of northern lower Michigan for Friday night into Saturday morning. Yet another night of frost/freeze concerns may be in store Saturday night.

Otherwise, additional rain/snow showers are anticipated across the area at times again on Friday with aforementioned troughing overhead and ample low-level moisture in place. Little to no accumulation is expected with these light showers and relatively warm ground temperatures. A break in precip chances is anticipated Saturday into Sunday as ridging builds in before rain chances return at times through early next week. To the displeasure of those ready for warmer temperatures to stick around, the wait looks to continue through the first part of May. Highs will struggle to surpass 50 through Saturday. A brief warmup into the 50s and 60s is anticipated Monday before forecast highs look to drop back into the 40s and 50s for much of next week -- along with another round of potential frost/freeze concerns heading into Mother's Day weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

MVFR/ VFR conditions will continue through most of the evening with northwest winds becoming light. Winds will increase once again Friday with gusts 15-20 knots by the afternoon. Light shower chances through this evening with clouds trying to clear tonight. A few shower chances possible at times early Friday through the day (mainly across northern Lower terminals) with some snow possibly mixing in, a window of MVFR to possibly IFR if snow mixes in, will be possible with lowering ceilings.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ016>018- 021>024-026>030-032>036-099. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ020-025-031- 041-042-098. MARINE...None.