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KEY MESSAGES

- High-impact lake effect snow bands continue into Friday. Additional snowfall totals as high as 12-18 inches in parts of Kalkaska, Crawford, and Roscommon counties under the heaviest band.

- Another system could bring several inches of snow back to Michigan Saturday night into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 352 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Classic high-end lake effect snow setup over the Great Lakes as a closed low spins precariously over Quebec while weaker surface low off the mid Atlantic pumps moisture into the troughing regime, wrapping around the closed low and leaking into the Great Lakes region. Pressure gradient between the closed low in Quebec and surface high pressure over Manitoba have led to a persistent NW flow cold advection regime that will continue into today, albeit in a weakening state. Some impressive totals thus far... several event totals in excess of 20 inches across portions of Antrim, SW Otsego, eastern Kalkaska, and Crawford counties, with more to come through the short term forecast period... marking the second year in a row that the Thanksgiving weekend features a banger of a lake effect snow event across the northern Michigan snowbelts.

00z observed sounding showcases superb saturation from the surface to doggone near 300mb. Inversion heights tonight generally holding around 600 -500mb... a testament to the colder air aloft and the amount of lift in the low levels through the DGZ, contributing to very efficient snowfall rates across the region. With time, moisture has slowly waned as the surface high and height rises commence... a trend that has already been noted into early this morning as more efficient snow band structures have largely been fractured into lesser organized convective clusters. Wind changes will also dictate the placement of snowbands across the region. Ongoing NNW to NW flow will hold into the morning, generally keeping those lake effect snows locked into place across NW and into north central lower Michigan... along with far eastern Presque Isle and Alpena counties and the eastern Yoop west of a Sault to De Tour Village line. Winds set to gradually back more westerly into tonight... which will lead to the heaviest snows shifting more north, focusing much more on the M-32 corridor by later this evening as winds taper and moisture continues to wane... and eventually seeing activity merge toward the coast as the weaker flow leads to a lake-land breeze convergence setup, and snow in generally trends much lighter.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 352 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

For the snow lovers in the area... this is your time to bask in all your glory. An area of low pressure zips out of the northern Plains and into the Ohio Valley / lower Great Lakes, and will commence the next round of snow later Saturday into Sunday. Accumulating snow is likely... but with this southern storm track... greatest synoptic snows will probably land south of M-32. The lone exception will be some SSE flow lake enhancement over Lake Huron which will prove to boost totals across southeastern Chippewa county (including Drummond Island)... along with potentially that Alpena-Presque Isle area as well. Current guidance suggesting that this will be a 3 to 6 inch event across much of the area, locally higher in that lake enhancement zone... and with closer proximity to the better lift and moisture in the system... areas south of M-72 may touch warning criteria if current trends hold. Beyond this system, we will contend with the standard backside-of-the-system-lake-effect game into Monday. Another wave zips through the region on Tuesday, which should deliver the next round of snow... and with long term trends painting trough dominant patterns and ample cold, anticipation is that we continue the theme of active wintry weather across the region at various time through the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Continued northwest flow lake effect streamers today...which will lead to sharply fluctuating flight conditions though things should be mostly prevailing VFR/MVFR ceilings with occasional drops to IFR visibilities in some of the heavier snow bands. Convective activity expected to weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and low level flow relaxes as well.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018-023-024-029-035-086-087-095-096. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ021- 022-027-028-034-099. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.