textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Few showers/storms(?) today...better chance Tuesday

- Potential for widespread rain and storms Wednesday into Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the PacNW...with northerly flow into MT/WY, in the back of longwave troughing across the northern US. Embedded PV maxima over SD...Manitoba...and the Lower Great Lakes/western Quebec centered on a 546dm upper low near James Bay...amid otherwise zonal flow across the central US. Greatest moisture remains suppressed across the southern US and East Coast, with northwesterly mid-level flow into the Midwest, advecting somewhat drier air (pwats around 0.3-0.4in) into the region...though some moisture still hangs on beneath the upper low itself where mid and low-levels are relatively saturated. Very chilly air mass associated with this upper/low broad troughing...with 850mb temp of +2.2C on the 0z sounding here at Gaylord (below the 10th percentile for climo for mid-June), and the 0C isotherm just to our north over central Ontario...and northwesterly 30+kt 850mb jet stretching down into northern Michigan only helping the cold cause. A bit of warm/moist advection just upstream, though...from Manitoba into western Ontario ahead of aforementioned niblet there, where slightly better moisture and weaker stability aloft are located attm; surface reflection of this system is a low over western Ontario and subtle warm front down toward Isle Royale; cold front stretches back through the central Canadian Prairies...with high pressure over the bulk of the central and northwestern US. Cold front remains well to our south...from the Desert SW through southern TX and up the Appalachians into Quebec...with 996mb occluded low just east of Hudson Bay.

After a chilly night...will expect temps to rebound a bit with warm advection ongoing in our vicinity today. Next shortwave, dragging some energy straight outta Nunavut, will be digging into the Midwest tonight, arriving in our area Tuesday. Still expecting a sharp trough axis with this...looking to become negatively tilted with time as it swings overhead, though some question as to how warm (and therefore, unstable) we can get with this. Attention then turns stage left...with guidance still signaling strong NW flow aloft lending to strong cyclogenesis over the central US Wednesday. This should approach the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday...dragging a sharp cold front through the area for later this week...and draping a baroclinic zone E-W across the central US...perhaps not all that dissimilar to the current situation. Think we have a reasonable shot at staying on the cooler side for late week into next weekend, with northwest flow aloft currently looking to prevail...though unclear attm just how cold we get.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Showers/storms(?) today...Best chance will be across the EUP, closer to the subtle trough axis (and cooler air) aloft. Up here...looking at potential for a few hundred or so joules of CAPE and some weak stability this afternoon...with moisture increasing generally along this E-W axis going into tonight. The warmer we are able to get, the greater shot at seeing convection pop, noting presence of a more stable layer around 600-700mb or so, which could keep activity to a minimum...though with a subtle warm front slipping by this morning, do wonder if we will start out the day with a bit of activity. All this being said...there are signals for the confluence/forcing to remain just to our north until after dark, which could put a bit of a damper on things...though we should see a little warm advection overnight that could aid in activity during the overnight hours.

Storms Tuesday... Think Tuesday's forecast is a little tricky, and will depend on how things play out in the morning. Some guidance hints at potential for convective activity to cross the state, especially southern Michigan/northern IN/OH during the morning/midday hours, which could be a sticky wicket for the afternoon's development/redevelopment. However...we should still be looking at increasing support aloft with the shortwave trough axis turning negatively tilted with time, and this should keep the door open for showers/storms going into the afternoon/evening as a cold front crosses the area. Strongest flow should be across southern Michigan, and could poke up into NE Lower near Saginaw Bay...allowing a low-end threat for better storm organization to creep into our area and aid in a better shot at damaging wind concerns. With the surface low in the region, and potential for a warm front or some kind of zonal boundary...do have a concern in the back of my mind for a non-zero tornado threat. Also suspect locally heavy rain will be a concern with any storms that develop ahead of the cold front in the afternoon...and also wonder if some portion of the central/eastern UP may get in on a prolonged period of rain along a confluence zone across the EUP/Tip of the Mitt.

Rain/storms Wednesday...expect an area of warm advection convection to lift into the Midwest/Great Lakes early Wednesday ahead of developing surface low over the Plains. Initially, we may be under a bit of ridging with some drier air...but warm advection should be able to take care of that through the day into Wednesday night. With guidance attm signaling a reasonably well-defined surface system, would expect an area of stratiform rain north and east of the low with embedded thunder -- suspect primary threat within this area would be heavy rain concerns. Some portion of the Midwest will have to contend with a tornado threat, particularly along the warm front and near the surface low...which current guidance suggests should be occluding as it reaches the Great Lakes...and likely taking on a more elongated, E-W idea as it tracks through the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the surface low and the warm front will get...perhaps even as far north as central Michigan/M-55? Will need to keep a close eye on this going forward.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 552 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR through the forecast period. Lots of SKC and mid to high cloud today. Just enough in the tank to perhaps force a shower or two in the vicinity of CIU, though anticipating most activity, including any TSRA to hold west of the TAF site. Chances for SHRA may intrude into PLN and TVC by the conclusion of the forecast period. Winds southwest becoming gusty, up to 20kts+, this afternoon, turning lighter and more southerly by the conclusion of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.