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KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms tonight with slight chances for severe winds, hail and non-zero tornado chances

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions Thursday, with heat indices in the high 80s to mid 90s.

- Another round of showers and storms will move through the state late Thursday and Thursday night, with all modes of severe weather possible

- Cooler Friday and into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis: A cutoff upper-level low is drifting east out of the Canadian Rockies, with generally shallow troffing to its south over the western half of the U.S. A weak short wave/MCV is lifting northeast from the mid-Mississippi Valley and will cross the Upper Great Lakes tonight. A stronger short wave will rotate through the mean trof on Thursday (by then across the central U.S), lifting northeast across the Upper Great Lakes late Thursday and Thursday night.

The upper-level cutoff wobbles across central and eastern Canada over the next several days. The flow across the lower 48 states trends more zonal behind the Thursday night disturbance and this continues through the weekend. Then the cutoff dips a little to the south and east with mean troffing eventually developing over the eastern U.S. by the middle of next week.

Forecast Details: Initial concern focuses on the thunderstorm threat tonight with the initial short wave/MCV. Model guidance has not had a very good handle on the weather across the forecast area today, which gives lower confidence on how things will unfold heading into tonight. Clouds have held in place across much of the forecast area this morning and early afternoon, which has held temperatures and resulting instability down from previous expectations. The remnants of a thunderstorm complex moving across Lake Michigan from Wisconsin, that was never supposed to make it to the forecast area, will provide additional cloud cover through this afternoon.

The disturbance moving northeast out of the mid-Missisppi Valley should still push showers/storms through the forecast area tonight, especially this evening. There looks to be a short window for any of these storms to be strong/severe across the forecast area early this evening due to loss of diurnal instability along with otherwise relatively weak lapse rates (around 6 C/km) and modest shear profiles (bulk shear generally no more than 30 kts). The shower/storm threat should taper off overnight.

Conditions look better for strong to severe storms with the stronger upper-level wave and associated surface low that will track northeast across the area late Thursday/Thursday night. Current indications suggest ML CAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg across parts of northern Lower Michigan, with Bulk Shear values in excess of 50 kts. It should be noted that the better instability has been trending lower and more to the south in some of the guidance. Still, per latest SPC Day2 guidance, all modes of severe weather are possible. Damaging wind gusts appear most likely at this time. Precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" ahead of this system suggest heavy rainfall is possible with any storms that develop. A warm to hot and humid day is expected on Thursday in advance of the system with highs in the 80s and lower 90s.

Cooler air will gradually spill into the area behind the Thursday system, with temperatures trending below normal by late in the weekend into early next week (highs in the 60s-lower 70s). Periodic disturbances in the zonal flow will bring chances of showers and a few storms from time to time, but nothing significant appears likely at this time. The best chances for showers/storms in the extended range appears to be Saturday/Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Upstream showers and a few embedded thunderstorms approaching TVC likely to make some impact to CIGs/VSBYs over the next couple of hours -- again primarily at TVC, before continuing to weaken/dissipate. Renewed chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible this evening into the early overnight hours. Higher likelihood of LIFR/IFR CIGs returns later tonight into early Thursday morning before scattering out late in the TAF period. Some gustiness for NW lower tonight, but otherwise generally light winds sustained AOB 10 kts, locally higher in any thunderstorms.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.