textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic cold front and lake effect snow showers likely Monday and Monday night.

- Unsettled weather mid and late week, with brief period of mixed precipitation possible on Wednesday (primarily snow to rain).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Several embedded shortwaves within a deepening longwave trough across the Great Lakes early this week will bring winter-like conditions to the area (where is spring?). Ridging pushing into western Canada will open the door for arctic air (modified by April standards) to surge southward into the Great Lakes. This unusually cold air will also increase overlake instability and bring about lake effect snow chances. Early week troughing will transition to a more zonal flow by midweek with several shortwave troughs bringing unsettled weather for the second half of the week, as temperatures moderate.

Primary Forecast Concerns and Details:

A shortwave trough slides across southern Michigan tonight with some mid level f-gen forcing clipping southern parts of our area. Possibly bringing a few snow showers to those areas. An arctic cold front sweeps into northern Michigan on Monday, with fropa in the morning for eastern upper and during the afternoon for northern lower. 850mb temperatures drop into the minus teens, resulting in a lake response with increasing overlake instability. Winds will likely gust 20-30 mph with fropa, with temperatures falling. The front and associated upper level wave, will bring rain/snow showers throughout the day (becoming all snow as the colder air arrives). Snow accumulations of 1-2" will be possible in some areas, especially eastern upper and northeast lower. Combined with the gusty winds, a period of lower visibility may occur with blowing snow. North-Northwest flow lake induced snow bands will likely develop later in the afternoon into Monday night, although quick drying in the wake of the fropa will limit coverage/intensity. Minor additional accumulations possible. Some single digit lows possible Monday night over parts of eastern upper, with snow cover and cold air drainage out of Ontario.

Our next round of precipitation arrives midweek, as warmer air pushes back into the area from the west. This looks like primarily a rain system, with some mixed precipitation potential on the leading edge. The pattern remains unsettled through the end of the week with additional rain chances and temperatures returning toward more seasonable norms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Mix of MVFR to VFR CIGs this afternoon, becoming VFR for most tonight. Isolated snow showers possible tonight, mainly KMBL and KTVC, then another chance midday to late day on Monday. Winds will continue to be breezy through the afternoon hours, slowing this evening, before increasing again on Monday. Mix of snow showers and breezy conditions on Monday will result in lowered VSBYs at times as well, especially during the afternoon hours.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Above normal precipitation over the past week has resulted in increased streamflows/stages on area rivers during this weekend. Precipitation over the past seven days has been 300-600 percent of normal across northern Lower...and 150-300 percent of normal across central/eastern Upper Michigan. This has been combined with recent loss of snowpack across far northern Lower (upper portions of the Manistee/Au Sable basins as well as the Thunder Bay and Cheboygan basins). Most stream channels are above the 75th percentile for streamflow with many rivers above the 90th percentile. Thunder Bay river near Bolton (Alpena county) has surpassed its record stage of 18.2 feet. Flood Warnings continue on the Manistee River near Sherman (Wexford county). Rifle River near Sterling (Arenac county)crested but remains about a foot above its flood stage of 6 feet so a Flood Warning continues there as well. Also watching elevated river levels in the Tittabawassee River basin in Gladwin county.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.