textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm into the 20s for most areas today. Skies will fill in today as the next system approaches

- Southwest winds gusting up to 20 mph and times of moderate snowfall will likely result in windows of low visibilities near US- HWY 2 tonight and early Monday morning

- Widespread light to moderate snow with times of embedded heavier snow will spread over the area from west to east starting Monday morning. Expected snow amounts are a couple tenths to 3 inches

- A brief break in precipitation midweek, then chances persist for widespread accumulating snow near the end of the work week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Current satellite reveals clear skies over most of northern lower MI this morning. Some low stratus is creeping eastward over the central U.P. towards the SOO, as well as some low stratus over central and northern Lk MI creeping east. Sites over interior northern lower are currently around -10F to -3F with a handful of sites in the higher valleys and/or open areas down to -15F (KGOV). A land breeze will continue convergence near the central part of Lk MI. This paired with light west winds above the surface will continue the expansion of the low level stratus into inland areas of NW lower this morning... the background environment helping to reinforce a typical land breeze circulation.

A clipper system is currently passing over ND/MN and southern CAN, brining gusty winds and snow to those areas this morning as a warm front extending south is carried along with it. The surface cyclone will trend weaker this morning as it moves away from a more idea baroclinic zone existing near the Dakotas. The related upper shortwave will run into an upper ridge over the great lakes today, slowing the systems progression down as it moves over WI. For northern MI today, the axis of the upper ridge will reside over MI around late morning. These warmer 850 mb temps (around -7C), mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, and the beginning of WAA near the surface will aid in temperatures reaching into the high 20s and even low 30s in some spots today. Slightly cooler temperatuers over eastern upper near the US/CAN border could be seen due to the possibility of the low stratus deck lingering.

There are low but non-zero chances that the low stratus deck over northern Lk MI and parts of NW lower could begin to precipitate as southwest winds build in later this afternoon/evening. Snow should remain light, but this could give an earlier onset of snow to these areas.

Since this system is weakening as it moves east, surface gradients will not be as strong and as a result winds will not be as strong as other systems have been. With that said, a gradient still does exist and will result in south to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph building in later this evening and tonight for northern Lk MI. Highest gusts will coincide with light to moderate snowfall tonight into early Monday morning as the now cold front tracks across northern MI. The Monday morning commute for eastern upper and NW lower will have widespread light snow with bands of more moderate snow. Areas of lake enhancement are possible at this time, and could result in heavier snow for coastal communities of northern Lk MI. This could result in lower visibilities at times for spots, but the weakening system will curb widespread impacts for long durations.

Winds will turn northwest during the day Monday, with lake effect snow showers starting to mix in. Temperatures will likely warm into the 20s for most spots Monday. Drier air in the mid levels will move in Monday afternoon, and could result in some brief freezing drizzle for some spots of NW lower as precip moves out.

Snow Amounts and Characteristic: With the weakening features and somewhat washed out gradients, robust snow production will be somewhat hard to come by. The relatively warmer profiles and WAA regime lead to a higher DGZ depth where moisture and forcing align (the few bands of more moderate snowfall). Snow flakes will result from this, with the snow characteristic being more normal to dry. Although this is different from the powdery snow we have been seeing, visibilities could still fall under the times of more moderate snow. With the speed of the snow (most of it exiting to the east by the afternoon) and the weaker features, snow amounts are expected to be 1 to 3 inches over NW lower and eastern upper, with up to an inch expected elsewhere. Locally higher amounts are possible for coastal areas of Lk MI as with the possibility of lake enhancements earlier Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Late Monday, an upper closed low will drop south over southern Ontario CAN. This will likely continue snow showers through early Tuesday for spots of NW lower and eastern upper. An additional 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible in localized spots.. with most of NW lower seeing up to an inch of additional snow. As the low exits Tuesday, colder temperatuers and breezy north winds will be present as the snow showers diminish through the day.

A break in precip will be seen Wednesday, before the next clipper system approaches late Thursday. Ample Pacific moisture will accompany this system, and a better baroclinic environment will be present as it moves over MI. Although warmer temperatures will be seen Thursday, this also means that stronger winds and heavier snow will move in late Thursday into Friday.

Global ensembles continue to show some disagreements with track once it reaches Ontario and timing. Within these disagreements, there is one thing that is hinted at.. and that is snow amounts will likely remain near advisory criteria. With 75% of LREF and ECMWF AI members keeping snow amounts from Thur thru Fri at 6 inches or less over NW lower (the area of higher amounts). This does not include lake effect snow on the back end, and amounts could be higher depending on Lk MI ice cover extend and if winds will be strong enough to break things apart.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 641 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Stratus/fog have expanded out from Lake MI into eastern upper and nw lower MI early this morning. MVFR conditions expected at TVC/MBL this morning, improving to VFR for part of the afternoon and evening, then becoming MVFR again overnight with lowering cigs and developing light snow. APN stays VFR. PLN will be LIFR this morning, becoming MVFR this afternoon. CIU LIFR this morning, IFR this afternoon, MVFR this evening and tonight.

Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.