textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain showers continue through later tonight, perhaps accompanied by a rumble of thunder this evening.

-Drizzly, damp, dreary, and downright cold Wednesday.

-Seasonably warmer weather builds later this week with additional rounds of showers and storms next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Sharp northern stream shortwave trough intruding into the Great Lakes region, accompanied by well-defined, albeit, broad surface low pressure over Minnesota this morning. Associated warm frontal boundary will make an attempt to lift into the region, but should generally stall out along a TVC to HTL line at best. This boundary will remain the primary focus for shower and perhaps thunder activity through the evening, with stratiform precip building within the cold conveyor of the system. Result will be periods of showers through the remainder of the day. Dry slotting convection anticipated to materialize across Wisconsin and make a run at northwest lower later tonight, but with waning instability, should struggle quite a bit. Backside moisture and lift with this system will prolong shower chances into Wednesday before 500mb ridging forces this system eastward, and surface high pressure restores meteorological order going into Thursday. Result will be a clearing and considerable warming trend. Troughing currently over the Pacific Northwest will crest the ridge axis and should hold suppressed to the north... which should allow for warmer air to hold into the start of the weekend. That being said, this will set up zonal flow into the region Friday, which could lead to convection potential given we will be in the warm sector of this wave, and a frontal boundary will be laid down across the Great Lakes. High pressure builds Sunday before a southern stream wave ejects into the Plains and lifts north and east with split flow, allowing for ample moisture return and potential for widespread appreciable rainfall going into next week.

Details:

Rest of Today thru Wednesday: Shower coverage set to ramp up across the rest of the region through the afternoon. Eastward advancement of elevated moisture plume has been stymied by stout low level dry layer, and ongoing mixing across northeast lower is not helping matters either... RHs already tanking into the upper 30s as of 11am. Nonetheless, top-down saturation will eventually win out, leading to a cold, occasionally wet finish to the day across much of the region. Aforementioned warm frontal boundary's intrusion to the region will allow for convective processes to materialize this evening across northwest lower, so some rumbles of thunder are possible as well with the arrival of this system's cold front. Strong flow aloft may lead to some of these downpours / embedded storms to be a touch gusty, but with waning instability, anticipation is that this convection likely remains sub-severe, which gels pretty well with the latest SPC outlook that pins a broad Marginal Risk to our south and west across Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. Additional region of note... with maximized fronto along the departing "TROWAL" will likely support an area of much more efficient rainfall... perhaps to the tune of 0.50"+ of additional rain, across Mackinac County and into the Tip of the Mitt. Shower coverage tapers off considerably later tonight, though saturation will finally be of no shortage... so anticipating a cloudy, drizzly, foggy night that will carry into tomorrow amid the occasional shower... and as such, the temperature department will be suffering. The presence of clouds and moisture will keep lows above freezing tonight, but at the cost of stonewalling highs in the mid to upper 40s accompanied by a breeze come Wednesday. Not that anyone is keeping track or anything, but this will be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Rest of the Period: High pressure builds in Wednesday night, putting an end to the sogginess from west to east by Thursday, and will lead to a clearing trend amid far more seasonable temperatures than the duck-friendly weather we are about to see over the next 36 hours. Ample sunshine should allow for highs to peak into the upper 50s to upper 60s across the board. Aforementioned Pacific system will zip into northern Ontario and throw a frontal boundary through the region, which will be the focus for some showers and perhaps some thunder later Friday into Saturday morning, with the rest of Saturday trending drier at this juncture. Rain chances set to return Sunday and especially into next week as a favorable setup for deeper Gulf moisture to surge northward builds... no clear signal as to how heavy this rain will be, but certainly on the table from a pattern recognition / conceptual standpoint. More details to come.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys (under heavier rain) most likely for CIU/PLN but could drop to MVFR at MBL this afternoon...with brisk SE/S winds across the area and potential for gusts to 25-35kts. Initial round of rain and embedded TS exits eastward thru 20z, with some diurnal MVFR/VFR cu developing in its wake...with a second round of SHRA/TSRA moving in around 20-22z...along with more widespread MVFR to IFR cigs overnight. Surface low to pinwheel across Tip of the Mitt overnight, with lighter/arb winds possible at PLN and perhaps CIU/TVC/MBL as well...though expect largely E winds turning more N at CIU overnight...with more southerly winds for northern Lower MI taf sites, becoming NW with time as surface low departs, and strengthening back to 15-20kts, gusting 25-30kts. Cigs remain IFR/LIFR from late tonight thru Wed AM with continued DZ/BR becoming more SHRA late.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Lhz348-346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Lhz348>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Looms-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for Lsz321- 322.