textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- High Swim Risks in place across many northern Michigan beaches today.

- Additional showers and a few storms possible again this afternoon. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

- Cool temperatures through the middle of the week, warming back close to seasonal averages through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Seasonally impressive troughing digging across the Great Lakes tonight will punch east of the region today, placing us underneath northwest mid/upper-level flow through most of this week and perhaps into this weekend. The strong cyclone supported by aforementioned troughing will continue to track across Ontario into Quebec today with a secondary cold front expected to swing across northern Michigan later this afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest heading into the middle of the week underneath subsidence aloft, eventually centering itself over the Great Lakes for the second half of the week. Additional troughing progressing over the region may bring a more active pattern this weekend.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing storms across northern lower Michigan will continue to track southeast over the next few hours. At this point, lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards and additional severe weather is not anticipated.

After tonight's storms track southeast of the area, a short break in precip chances is anticipated through mid-morning. Additional scattered showers may pop up along and ahead of the previously mentioned cold front in the presence of ~500-1,000 J/kg MLCAPE -- enough to support at least isolated thunder chances into the afternoon. Thunder chances look to be cut off later in the afternoon after the front passes with temperatures cooling into the 60s for much of the area. Ample low-level saturation may support light drizzle/mist across parts of the area this evening into tonight with gusty northwest winds off of Lake Michigan/Lake Superior. Winds could gust as high as 30-40 mph this afternoon into tonight, leading to high swim risks being in place across many northern Michigan beaches due to the threat of high waves and dangerous currents. Looking ahead, cool temperatures in the 60s and low 70s are expected for most areas on Wednesday before warming back close to seasonal averages through the second half of the week with high pressure overhead. Rain chances look to hold off Wednesday through Friday before returning to the forecast later this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Winds will gradually shift from west to northwest through the day today becoming gusty at times. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts possible this afternoon into this evening. Scattered showers and storms may pop up again, primarily during the afternoon, potentially impacting TAF sites. Northwest winds and ample low-level moisture look to return MVFR and even IFR CIGs across parts of the area at times today into tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for MIZ016- 018-020-021-025-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.