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KEY MESSAGES

-Dangerously cold this morning with a "warming" trend into early next week.

-Next snow chances courtesy of a clipper system Monday night into Tuesday

-Watching potential for another arctic airmass late next week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 210 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Classic arctic outbreak pattern has materialized across the eastern CONUS... with northern stream jet in the process of digging well south of the Great Lakes as an impressive trough has overtaken the eastern two thirds of NOAM, complete with Greenland blocking to keep the floodgates to the arctic wide open. As such, impressive 1048mb surface high has moved into the Dakotas and Minnesota, ushering in a downright impressively cold airmass to the Great Lakes... complete with an observed 850mb temp of roughly -28.5 Celsius, which is below the 5th percentile of 850mb temps for the date. Impressive stuff. As such... with such cold air, still seeing some lake induced instabilities as Delta-Ts have gone off the charts... but with such cold air, none of this moisture or lift is occurring in the dendritic growth zone... so basically seeing baby powder flying around at this point across the NW lower snowbelts and across portions of Chippewa County for our friends north of the Bridge. The lakes have "moderated" (if you want to even call it that) air temps to near or a handful of degrees below zero.

For those who are away from these lake induced clouds and snow showers... fresh snowpack and the increasing influences of land breeze dynamics has resulted in a spectacular radiational cooling setup... with Cadillac already plummeting to -22F before 11pm... and many other sites dipping well into the teens below zero. With the influences of the surface high flexing across the region and a slowly loosening pressure gradient... anticipating land-lake breeze elements to suppress ongoing lake effect to the shores, while interior locales clear out and continue to see efficient cooling courtesy of a rich, fresh snowpack. Lows tonight will vary considerably. With the continued clouds and snow showers, those along the shores of Lake Michigan into the NW lower snowbelt and across western Chippewa County may struggle to get much lower than 0 to -10 for the night. Those across the interior? Pending on if winds can completely decouple, overnight lows pushing -30F are on the table in the coldest of spots... but expecting most places to dip to -10 to -20F by morning. Considering how cold things are, and with how little wind it will take to produce high impact wind chills (CAD has already notched -30 or lower wind chills this evening)... gotta continue with the Extreme Cold Warning through the morning hours considering how quickly things can get harmful if proper precautions are not taken.

For Saturday, will continue to see those snow showers hugging the lakeshores, with bands shifting around with winds turning more SW to S through the day leading to a more transient nature to the snowbands. With tiny flakes... accums remain rather limited... perhaps an additional half inch to an inch across the lakeshores of NW lower and up to 2 inches across western Chippewa County through Saturday evening. With the most impactful snows out of the picture, will be dropping all snow-related headlines. Most spots still hold quite cold with highs in the single digits to lower teens above zero, with peeks of sunshine likely for areas away from any snow showers.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 210 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Those looking for warmer weather are going to have to wait a while... or head to the SW US, because the entire eastern two thirds of the CONUS is basically going to be dealing with a deep freeze. Closer to home, we trend a little warmer as the surface high and the core of the colder air is dispatched to our east and we warm into the low-mid teens. As such, not much to write home about for Sunday aside from the chill... just some snow showers around. Things change Monday into Tuesday as a clipper system delivers a round of snow to the region. Longwave troughing courtesy of a closed low over Atlantic Canada will continue the feed of a deep cold airmass to the region through the rest of the forecast period... along with it, some lake effect snow chances. That all being said, this run of colder weather should increase ice cover on the lakes, which may mute lake effect snow potential in the future, wind direction pending... something that may need to be evaluated on a day-by- day basis to see how much lake effect will be impacted... because I'm here to tell ya... the ice sure as heck isn't melting. For the time being, long term guidance isn't buying into the idea of overly suppressed lake effect, but that could change in due time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 631 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

APN will be VFR with no significant issues. Other sites are contending with lake effect snow/clouds today, especially this morning. MBL is worst off, with IFR vsbys expected to continue this morning before improving. TVC/PLN/CIU should have MVFR cigs for part of today. Otherwise VFR. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...None.