textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue at times today and this weekend, along with chances for thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected.

- Noticeably cooler temperatures move in this weekend.

- Dry weather returns late Sunday/Monday before our next rain chances move in during the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing draped across the northeast quadrant of the country will amplify with time this weekend as a potent jet max digs across the northern Great Plains, eventually rounding the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic late Saturday into Sunday. Forcing aloft provided by this wave will continue to support an elongated cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes that is set to trek across the region this evening through Saturday night. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will fold over the heart of the continent this weekend, placing the Great Lakes under the ridge/trough inflection point and thus best subsidence aloft by the start of next week. This will build surface high pressure into the region on the backside of the departing system Monday and Tuesday. Additional troughing looks to progress overhead through the middle of next week.

Forecast Details:

Showers will continue across northern Michigan at times through at least the first half of the weekend. Ongoing showers will spread east with time this afternoon and likely increase in coverage over the next few hours into this evening. The most likely area for heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be across southeast portions of the CWA closer to Saginaw Bay where mostly sunny skies have allowed for better diurnal heating. A relative lull in chances is anticipated for a brief time early tonight before another round of showers looks to move in late tonight along/ahead of a cold front swinging across the Great Lakes.

A similar story is expected Saturday as scattered to numerous showers are anticipated again. Best rain chances will come along and east of I-75, especially from late morning into the afternoon as a secondary cold front comes through. Unlike today, ~1,000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place across northeast lower to support thunderstorm chances with daytime activity tomorrow. However, relatively weak deep-layer shear will keep severe thunderstorm chances very low. The primary threats tomorrow will be lightning and brief heavy downpours. Light showers may linger into Saturday evening with the main chances for rain expected to end before Sunday. A few showers cannot be ruled out on Sunday, but chances currently appear to be less than 20%.

Perhaps most notably Sunday will be gusty northwest winds ushering in cool temperatures, giving the area a taste of fall as we head into the end of August. Sustained winds around 10-15 mph will gust to 20-30 mph at times into Sunday evening as daytime temperatures stay in the 60s for most areas. Rain chances look to hold off for the start of next week with high pressure in place, eventually returning to the forecast during the middle of the week as aforementioned troughing slides overhead.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 453 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions with a few showers this evening. Lower cigs to MVFR (IFR?) expected to build into the area later tonight into Saturday morning. Cigs improve during the day Saturday, with perhaps some afternoon showers and storms. Confidence remains low on overall coverage of showers/storms through the entirety of the period. Light winds tonight become a bit gusty out of the northwest as we head into Saturday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.