textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of freezing fog likely tonight.

- System to bring a wintry mix of precipitation to northern Michigan midweek including impactful snow and ice.

- Additional wintry precipitation chances to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Quick moving energy aloft departs off to the east through this afternoon, dragging any lingering precip across far northern areas along with it. Zonal flow gives way to increasing heights during the Tuesday in advance of a winter storm set to impact the region Tuesday night through at least Wednesday as well-advertised low-level baroclinic zone stretches from Alberta to upstate New York -- providing the focus for low pressure development across the northern Plains to trek eastward into the Great Lakes through midweek. On the heels of this midweek system, additional southern stream energy is expected to propel northeastward toward the Great Lakes late week into the weekend with additional wintry precipitation looking likely.

Forecast Details:

Freezing fog potential tonight: Winds expected to turn out of the northwest late this afternoon behind the aforementioned weak wave crossing northern MI today; however, winds become calm this evening with another round of fog/freezing fog likely tonight based on latest forecast soundings and vsby guidance. Some slick spots may result, primarily on untreated/secondary roads.

Impactful snow and ice midweek: Primary focus through the forecast period revolves around Tuesday night through at least Wednesday/ Wednesday night. Latest trends favor precip spreading across northern lower MI Tuesday evening/night working its way north into the eastern U.P. late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Still some uncertainty that exists, especailly with regards to the axis of heaviest precipitation and how far north that progresses during the day Wednesday. Still kind of two camps of guidance with respect to this:

--Scenario 1: Strongest forcing slides across northern lower MI with highest QPF south of the bridge as high pressure well to our northwest hinders northward progress of precip resulting in a fairly sharp cutoff on the northern edge. This scenario would allow cooler near-sfc temps to sag farther south, resulting in the highest snow amounts across the tip of the mitt and northeast lower, with a potentially impressive snow gradient across the eastern U.P. and at least low chances that northern Chippewa County sees little to no snow accum. through Wednesday night. This would also likely result in an axis of mixed precipitation most likely to set up near and between the M-72 and M-32 corridors (likely excluding areas near and southwest of TVC, but potentially including areas up the US-31 and 131 corridors of northwest lower). Primary concern in these areas would be from freezing rain (although some sleet possible as well) with latest trends in this scenario supporting many of these areas receiving 0.10-0.30" of icing. While a very low probability, would be remiss to not at least mention worst possible case in this scenario given sensitivities after last year's ice storm: 0.40 - 0.50" icing across a narrow corridor with renewed concern for infrastructure issues. Again this worst case is unlikely, but probs in the scenario aren't zero for >0.40" ice -- generally some splotchy 5-8% chances.

--Scenario 2: Initial widespread precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday morning gives way to that axis of heaviest QPF shifting north across the tip of the mitt and U.P. with the sharp northern edge QPF gradient well to our north near the northern shores of Lake Superior. This would shift the heaviest wet/dense snow across the Straits and eastern U.P. with totals in excess of 6-8" possible. A wintry mix would remain south of there, with still high probabilities for icing (some sleet again as well) and to extent across similar areas as scenario 1 -- generally from parts of far northwest lower, across north-central lower into sections of northeast lower. Favored ice amounts in this scenario also generally from 0.10-0.30" with very low probabilities again for a worst case scenario with higher icing. This scenario would also likely result in an earlier end to widespread precip across sections of northern lower by later Wednesday afternoon with steadier snow continuing north of there for a longer duration into Wednesday night.

Still lots of details to sort out in the next 24-36 hours prior to this event's arrival, but safe to say impactful winter weather is on tap for parts of northern MI through the midweek time frame. Of higher confidence, southwestern reaches of APX's footprint, say roughly TVC to Gladwin and areas southwest of there have the highest likelihood to remain all rain with little impact from this event. Given the two scenarios above for the remainder of the area, ENS means favor scenario 2 with the heaviest snow falling across the Straits and eastern U.P. and the most impactful icing stretched across a corridor of northwest/north-central and northeast lower. The deterministic gridded forecast will follow in this path as well with greatest snow accums near and north of the bridge with the highest icing draped from Emmet County southeastward to Gaylord/ Grayling and points east including a good chunk of northeast lower. Should be rather breezy through this event as well, and while low SLRs may reduce blowing/drifting snow potential, still think this will amplify impacts to an extent, both in areas that see mainly snow and in icing areas where impacts of the weight of even sub 0.25" ice can be exacerbated by gusty winds. Think the best course of action at this point is a Winter Storm Watch basically M-72 and north to focus on the area with greatest potential for impacts, with still plenty of time ahead to refine ice/snow amounts and hardest hit areas.

Additional late week/weekend wintry weather: Beyond this midweek system, longer range trends continue to support to the potential for an additional southern stream wave(s) to trek across the Great Lakes late in the week, and perhaps again over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Area of low stratus currently over eastern upper and northeast lower with BR/HZ forming close to the surface elsewhere in northern MI. This low stratus is seeping southward and will continue. Most sites will either continue with IFR/LIFR cigs and vis or fall to this over the next couple hours. Conditions will persist through at least 14Z, with KCIU seeing MVFR vis linger through 22Z. After 14Z conditions will improve for sites besides KCIU. Mostly calm winds tonight will turn E after 12Z and strengthen near the end of the period with gusts up to 15 to 20kts. Precipitation will just be starting for KMBL/KTVC around 03Z, but will spread to other terminals after 06Z. Mixed precipitation is likely with this, more details to come in following forecasts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-034>036-099. Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...None.