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KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms possible later tonight.

- Mostly dry and warm Tuesday with rain chances returning Wednesday.

- Dry weather currently expected for much of the upcoming holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes this evening and tonight, eventually departing east Tuesday as a seasonably strong shortwave trough punches overhead by Tuesday night. The warm front currently draped mainly west/east across the Straits will gradually lift north with time tonight. Meanwhile, the parent cyclone tied to the aforementioned shortwave will trek across south-central Canada through the first half of the week, potentially swinging a diffuse cold front into the area in the Wednesday/Wednesday night timeframe. Expansive ridging is then expected to amplify across much of center of the continent late this week and through this weekend.

Forecast Details:

Widespread rain from earlier this morning has moved on well to the southeast this afternoon with only a few additional showers/storms popping up in the wake near Saginaw Bay. Expectation is that the vast majority of northern Michigan will remain dry this afternoon and evening with partly to mostly clear skies at sunset. Another round of showers/storms is possible later tonight. Additional convection is likely to initiate across north-central Wisconsin this evening along/ahead of the front, eventually working into northern Michigan very late this evening and tonight. Thunderstorm intensity upon arrival is in question, but elevated buoyancy in excess of 1,000 J/kg and ~30 kts of deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two -- and this aligns with a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms in the latest convective outlook from SPC. A quick 0.5"-1"+ of additional rainfall will still be possible should organized storms move across the area tonight given near- climatological max PWATs in place to support efficient rainfall.

While rain-free, warm weather is expected for most of northern Michigan on Tuesday, a few pop-up showers and storms cannot be completely ruled out across northeast lower. That said, mostly to partly sunny skies with highs climbing well into the 80s -- and even close to 90 locally -- are in store for the afternoon. Widespread rain and embedded thunder chances return to the forecast Wednesday as aforementioned troughing slides over the Great Lakes. With ridging expected to build behind this, rain chances appear low late this week and through much of the upcoming holiday weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Conditions range from IFR north to VFR south across northern MI early this afternoon. While CIU may struggle to improve, some additional improvement expected at all northern lower terminals through this evening. However, renewed chances for low stratus and fog return tonight, along with at least a low chance for scattered showers/storms across parts of the forecast area. Improvement area- wide to VFR expected Tuesday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345- 346.