textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers/storms depart east through this evening.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude troughing is in the process of sliding east across the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Surface boundary that crossed north to south across the majority of northern MI this morning will be making its exit to the south over the next few hours. Heights begin to rise locally on Friday with that trend continuing through early next week as impressive heat dome builds over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West and Plains, and eventually briefly into the western Great Lakes early next week. While this upper high builds, a wave or two expected to ride northwest flow on the northeastern periphery, but with little impact locally per latest ensemble trends. Suppose active weather chances increase toward the tail end of the forecast period mid-late next week as long range trends support that upper high gradually centering over the Southeast states with a return of northwest flow locally between that upper level high and deepening troughing over New England and the Northeast.

Forecast Details: Ongoing showers/storms early this afternoon are most numerous across parts of north-central and northeast lower. While the primary threats from any storms will be lightning and locally heavy downpours, suppose a stronger storm can't entirely be ruled out given progged MLCAPE upwards of 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE and ~25- 30 kts deep layer shear. Locally gusty winds possible in any stronger storms, and less of a hail threat given freezing level above 12kft. These showers/storms should gradually exit east and south through the early-mid evening hours with increasing sunshine (already the case in the eastern U.P.) from northwest to southeast through sunset. Patchy fog development expected tonight, locally dense in spots.

Partly sunny skies anticipated Friday with high temps back near 8- degrees area-wide. Non-zero afternoon pop up shower chance over north-central and northeast lower, but chances far too low to explicitly include in the forecast at this time.

Gradual warming trend continues each day this weekend into early next week with high temps by Monday/Tuesday likely ranging from the mid-upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. Highest probabilities for mid- 90s over downsloping northeast lower. Potential exists both Monday and Tuesday for heat indices to rise into the upper 90s and low 100s across parts of the forecast area. As was alluded to above, at least low potential exists for a return to more active weather mid-late next week, but lots of uncertainty exists around upper-level pattern evolution and where those highest chances set up.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 706 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue across much of northern Michigan this evening and early tonight as showers have dissipated and earlier storms have moved south of the area. Mainly clear skies are anticipated tonight with weak/calm winds, potentially allowing for FG/BR development at TAF sites late tonight into early Friday morning. Any FG/BR should burn off quickly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions in place through Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.