textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures through the weekend with increasing humidity.

- Scattered shower and storm chances over the weekend, better storm chances Monday with severe storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A fairly typical mid summer upper level pattern with 598 dam ridge over the desert southwest, with downstream troughing over the northeast CONUS. Generally west to northwest flow aloft for the Great Lakes, with several embedded shortwaves producing at least scattered shower and storm chances. Gulf moisture is generally cut off from the upper flow over the northern CONUS, which will likely limit precipitation coverage over the weekend. A more robust shortwave with deeper Pacific moisture, will bring much better precipitation chances early next week. Temperatures will be on the way up, as thermal ridging builds to our west.

A weak shortwave trough and attendant surface reflection begins to slide out of Lake Superior and western upper late tonight, spreading more clouds into northern parts of the area late. Not as cool as the last few nights, with still fairly comfortable lows in the 50s to lower 60s (warmest near the coasts and parts of upper Michigan). PWATs increase on Saturday as moisture pools around the weak surface front, with scattered diurnal shower/storm chances. This front washes out across the area Saturday night, as the main forcing remains rooted to the west. Some hints of a gradually eastward expanding EML plume on Sunday as a stronger shortwave slides over the top of the ridge to our west. We remain fairly capped across the Great Lakes and it remains to be seen how much diurnal activity will occur.

The much better chance for showers and storms comes Sunday night into Monday night as the aforementioned more robust wave moves into the Great Lakes. On Monday, PWAT's surge toward 200% of normal, combined with a warm low level airmass and favorable upper level kinematics in the exit region of a jet streak. Organized storms possible over parts of the Great Lakes with damaging winds being the main threat.

Quieter weather returns through midweek as surface high pressure moves into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions through the period with just a some high based cumulus and upper level clouds passing at times. Light winds through tonight, with southwest winds become gusty during Saturday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.