textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain returns Thursday

- Rain/storm chances Friday into Saturday

- Active next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

120kt polar jet stretches from British Columbia to Quebec atop strong east-west baroclinic zone stretching largely along the US- Canadian border (850mb temps of -20C over central Manitoba...and 0C in southern Manitoba). Surface front attends this...stretching from Alberta through northern MN to an occluded low over Quebec. 80kt sub- tropical jet loops from the 4 Corners region to the OH Valley...with attendant surface boundary on the warm side of the gradient (850mb temps in the +20c range over TX)..stretching from low pressure induced by a swirly over CO/WY...down into TX and up into the OH Valley. In between, across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...east-west axis of surface ridging hangs tough, despite some subtle disturbances crossing the Upper Midwest. 12z RAOB at APX shows quite a bit of dry air through the column...though some deeper moisture is trying to sneak into the Upper Midwest (most of it is trapped to our south in the OH Valley and south).

Subtle bit of PV tracks across the EUP, already exiting stage right by evening...leaving a strand of PV/confluence zone across the center of the state tonight into Wednesday. Expect high pressure to remain in control Wednesday...but shortwave trough currently over the Rockies will track into the region along aforementioned confluence zone....reaching the Upper Midwest by Thursday morning...with attendant surface troughing across the OH Valley and/or MI/OH state line...as northern stream high pressure eases into Ontario. This should set up our next chance of precipitation...with even better chances of precipitation (more likely in the form of rain) arriving by Friday as the upper trough ejects out of the western US...with strong warm advection ahead of it. Signals point toward us being on the warm side of this system attm...and will need to keep an eye on the potential for convective activity as we go forward into the weekend. Additional northern stream energy will be quick on its heels...with another system crossing central Canada Saturday night into Sunday...and potential for yet another system to cross the northern tier of the CONUS in the early week timeframe...though quite a bit of uncertainty with that one at this time.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Fog potential tonight/Wednesday?...Low confidence attm...but do wonder if nebulous flow combined with some warm/moist advection in the next 24-36hrs could lead to some fog over the snowpack. If this occurs, think Wednesday could at the very least start out drearier, though not sure it will produce enough low-level moisture to make a huge difference with respect to Thursday's weather. This being said...given that it's rather dry in the low-levels right now in spots (e.g., ACB reporting an RH of 24 percent)...not sure it will actually pan out until we can get some better moisture/higher dewpoint air in here...which may not happen till later Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Thursday/night Ptypes...Still not a ton of confidence in the evolution of things for Thursday. Particularly, how quickly precipitation moves in. More aggressive guidance would bring deeper moisture in from the south as early as 6-12z Thursday, and would keep the deep moisture around into Thursday night; however, it is possible the system remains less well-defined and less moist, moving a little slower into the region (perhaps not seeing any impacts across the M-55 corridor till closer to 18z Thursday). Noting that Wednesday should be quite dry across the area...have suspicions precip will ultimately be slower to move in...though this could lead to evaporative cooling on the outset and keep things cooler than expected. Even so...think the greatest threat for precipitation type issues will be across the Yoop/Tip of the Mitt and perhaps into parts of NE Lower MI...where there is a better shot at surface temps being colder...though it remains possible the deeper moisture may not make it that far north. In that case...not impossible we could be looking at drizzle/freezing drizzle...and would need to keep an eye on that too...though for now, guidance seems to be trending the warmer air further north...which could mitigate most, if not all, these concerns (save for perhaps at night when temps fall).

Friday/Saturday Rain and Storms...boundary from Thursday's system lifts further north yet as a warm front on Friday...with the cold front associated with this next system likely to move into the region at some point Saturday. Storms preceding the cold front could come through even as early as Friday night into Saturday morning...though there's still a bit of play in the timing. Primary concerns will be heavy rain, given the moisture around...and potential thunderstorms. Certainly possible we could see some elevated instability Friday into Friday night with some steeper lapse rates aloft slipping in ahead of the cold front...which would be something to monitor for hail potential (esp given our thermal profiles will still be generally cold compared to the dead of summer). Wind threats could certainly be possible, too, though background winds will be on the increase as well ahead of the system. Certainly worth keeping an eye on, as it's not out of the question some storms could be on the stronger side, noting there should be plenty of shear around.

Active weather next week...while confidence is slightly increasing in the forecast for the weekend...still quite a few questions on tap for early next week. Overall, signals point toward a northern stream system crossing the northern tier of the CONUS at some point between Monday and Tuesday, though still quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing of this feature attm. Think this will also be related to the evolution of the upstream pattern...as there are signals for the arctic floodgates to open again at some point beyond day 7...IF the northern stream can get into somewhat better phase with the upper low that will likely be hanging out over the southwest US and create a more amplified pattern. Not only would this open the door for the arctic air to spill into the central US...but could also set up a period of very mild conditions across the OH Valley and perhaps into the Great Lakes early next week, as we would have a better shot at seeing stronger SW/S flow. This is not a sure bet...as the northern stream could remain more progressive and keep the cold bottled up across Canada a bit better. Will certainly need to keep an eye on this as either way, the idea of active weather will continue into at least the middle of next week, and likely beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Trends support MVFR to even IFR cigs developing across KCIU this morning, with these low clouds persisting through the remainder of the taf period. May see some of this lower overcast spread down into KPLN this morning, but thinking cig heights will remain within VFR. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny/clear skies across the remainder of the taf locations today into this evening. Light winds will continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.