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KEY MESSAGES

-Widespread accumulating snow will spread this afternoon across northern Michigan. Highest snow amounts and impacts expected across eastern upper, including blowing and drifting snow.

-Quiet and overall dry weather expected to return this Thursday. Some precipitation remains possible at times, but no impactful weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Shortwave 500mb trough currently over the Dakota/Manitoba border will ride a jet max today, quickly progressing across the country and through the midwest this evening. Snowfall will persist today as an organized Alberta clipper tracks across the northwoods, creating several inches of accumulating snow for the northern half of the CWA.

Midlevel longwave troughing begins to break down into a split flow pattern this Wednesday, resulting in the baroclinic zone currently over the central U.S to shift southward. Conditions at the surface for the Great Lakes region will remain relatively benign. Waves of energy will track around the Midwest this Thursday and beyond. Slight chances of precipitation will remain possible at times, especially Thursday night as another clipper progress's across the northern Ontario, but no heavy or impactful weather is expected for northern Michigan through the remainder of the forecast period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Widespread accumulating snow will spread this afternoon across northern Michigan. Highest snow amounts and impacts expected across eastern upper, including blowing and drifting snow... Previously mentioned clipper system will begin to spread snowfall across eastern upper around 18Z driven via warm advection on the leading side. Deeply saturated profiles, moderate midlevel lapse rates, and a strong low level jet will create a window of moderate to heavy snowfall this afternoon throughthe late evening hours, resulting in several inches of accumulating synoptic snow. Latest high-res models show PWAT values between 0.30 and 0.40 inches, creating 18:1 snowfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches for most areas between the M-32 corridor and the bridge. The eastern upper region will receive a stronger surge of moisture aided by frontogenetic lift, leading to localized totals of 59 inches. All these factors combined with gusts in the 30s will create blowing/drifting snow this evening. A Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect for eastern upper through midnight tonight, while Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Straits and southward.

-Quiet and overall dry weather expected to return this Thursday.Some precipitation remains possible at times, but no impactful weather is expected... Long-range ensembles keep precipitation probabilities low (10-30%) Thursday and beyond. Ongoing lake effect snow showers this Wednesday will continue light localized accumulations of an inch or less for the typical WNW snowbelt locations, but most locations west of I-75 will only observe flurries. Long-range guidance depicts another clipper riding along the 50th parallel, causing light wintry mixed precip to track across eastern upper Thursday night into Friday morning, but little (if any) QPF is expected. Otherwise, the extended forecast remains quiet overall while slightly trending warmer as we head into March. It is too early toprovide specific details on temperatures, but an upward trend in daily highs above freezing is expected, especially as normal daily highs climb above 32 beginning this March.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 631 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Largely VFR conditions and light winds will quickly go by the leeway into the afternoon as a clipper system brings gusty south to southeast winds to all TAF sites by the afternoon. Snow moves across the region from northwest to southeast, leading to accumulations at all TAF sites...significant accumulations at CIU and PLN (in the order of 4 to 7 inches, lesser accumulations at the other sites). CIGs will initially go down to MVFR, but will quickly go IFR to LIFR upon the onset of steadier snow this afternoon through the evening. In addition to the snowfall, wind gusts of 30kt+ will lead to BLSN that will further hamper VSBY. Winds quickly shift W to WNW later this evening into tonight as steadier snow is replaced by lake effect snow showers. As opposed to the consistent lowering of flight categories seen this afternoon, anticipating conditions to improve to MVFR for most tonight prevailing with occasional lowerings to IFR or LIFR if a snow shower passes over a TAF site.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for MIZ016>018-021>024-097>099. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None.