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KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry mix of precipitation gradually ends tonight.

- Above normal temperatures to continue through the remainder of the week.

- Increasing potential for a widespread rain event later Thursday into Thursday night.

- Perhaps a return to more winter weather this weekend?

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 242 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Conus completely devoid of any real cold air early this afternoon as a much modified Pacific originated airmass dominates the weather. Mid and upper level split flow pattern evident, with cold air blocking northern stream now well removed to our north. Weak impulse cutting across the lower Lakes this afternoon in overhead zonal flow pattern, kicking off a band of mostly light precipitation across our southern row of counties. Warm nose aloft and a gradually warming low level environment has resulted in much of this now falling a just light rain and drizzle. Definitely a mild day across the Northwoods, with current readings mostly in the lower to middle 30s.

Current southern Lakes wave exits stage right this afternoon as secondary and steadily weakening disturbance cuts into northern lower Michigan this evening. North/south oriented surface ridging builds into the Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing any lingering light mixed precipitation into this evening. Temperature trends through Wednesday.

Details:

Precipitation tied to that lower Lakes low will end this evening. Steadily dampening western Lakes wave arrives quickly on its heels, spreading some patchy light snow and perhaps some freezing drizzle into our area. Not expecting anything significant, although of course any freezing drizzle could cause some slippery travel. Expect precipitation to gradually come to an end during the overnight.

Wednesday shaping up to be dry and seasonably mild, with perhaps even some increasing amounts of sunshine as we head through the afternoon. Looking for afternoon high temperatures to range through the 30s...which are several degrees above specific normal values for the end of the first week of January.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 242 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Rather active period of weather looks to be setting up, led by what looks to be a moisture laden shortwave and its attendant surface low ejecting northeast out of southern stream flow on Thursday. Potential for more active weather this weekend as northern flow amplification beings and cold air from Canada is re-introduced into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing details from both late Thursday system and arrival of next wave this weekend.

Details:

Low pressure expected to race northeast out of the southern Plains on Thursday, cutting across the Great Lakes Thursday night. System looks to have an excellent connection to Gulf of America moisture...as evident by guidance derived moisture analysis showing plume of one inch precipitable water values cutting into southern lower Michigan Thursday night. Pre-system environment will be a mild one, with highs on Thursday likely in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Arrival of rain should negate any nocturnal temperature response Thursday night, with even some suggestion parts of our area gets into the true warm sector of the system as it cuts up across lower Michigan... supporting rising temperatures overnight. Top/down thermal progs support an all rain event, with moisture profiles supporting some decent rain totals...up and over half an inch...with some indications of over one inch totals by Friday morning. While not expecting any ice formation of course given the above freezing temperatures, could see some impacts as rain falls on snow-covered and already ice-packed secondary roads. Other than perhaps some local drainage issues from now snow clogged drains, not seeing any hydro concerns given dry soil conditions and lack of frost depth.

Perhaps just a few lingering showers on Friday with still mild highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Plenty of uncertainty continues for this weekend, with at least some evidence of northern and southern stream interaction as troughing digs south out of Canada...at least setting the table for a winter weather event across parts of the region. Plenty of time to watch how that unfolds, but something to definitely keep an eye on if you have travel plans for the weekend. Even without a wrapped up system, still looking at a return to more normal-like temperatures by Sunday along with some lake snow potential as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 115 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Largely IFR to LIFR CIGs this afternoon, overnight, and into portions of Wednesday. One deviation from that is TVC & MBL, which remain in this VFR CIGs hole across the region this early PM. Indication is that this will fill in and lower with time this afternoon, and certainly tonight. Additionally, VSBYs remain MVFR most areas, occasionally IFR this afternoon. Localized LIFR VSBYs possible with FG/BR as well tonight around or after 03Z. Any -RA will diminish through the overnight with dry conditions into Wednesday. Potential for improving CIGs/VSBYs by the end of the TAF period, but will be monitored moving forward.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.