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KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring a burst of moderate to heavy snow over NL MI this morning, and strong northwest winds with accumulating lake effect snow behind the front which will last through the day

- Strong winds and cold temperatuers will result in cold wind chills today and tonight

- Widespread accumulating snow returns early Wednesday, with lake effect snow continuing snow chances through Thursday in the snow belts

- Chances hold for very cold temperatures to settle in near the end of the work week and into the weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 214 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Currently WV satellite is showing a broad area of moisture over the Great Lakes region. Radar and surface obs depicting light to moderate snow over most of the area, with embedded lake enhanced band of heavy snow near Leelanau reaching inland towards I-75. A weak occluded surface low is merging with some mesoscale low pressure located to the north of the central U.P.. This is resulting in a deepening surface feature (now at 1001 mb) over the southern part of Lk Superior. At the same time, a 1040mb surface high over MT/ND is sliding down the plains, with the cold front boundary moving over IL and an occluded over eastern WI reaching into the merging surface features over Lk Superior. The features converging over the Great Lakes region remain somewhat modest in strength while independent, but together will work to continue deepening the surface low this morning. An upper shortwave trough rotating through will aid in the eastward expansion of the surface high, tightening gradients and resulting in winds continuing to strengthen today.

A cold front will usher in quickly behind the surface low as it treks across NW lower mid morning. Southwest/west winds will be shifting to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph by midday/early afternoon as the boundary reaches the sunrise side of the lower peninsula. A burst of heavy snow will likely accompany the boundary, especailly as it moves over NW lower. A few bands of heavy lake effect snow will form in its wake. With the very cold airmass behind the boundary, model soundings show steep low level lapse rates, and lift within a saturated DGZ. More robust snow production profiles exist over NW lower, as the warmer lake temperatures and moisture flux becomes less of an influence the farther from Lk MI one gets. However, northwest wind fields during the midday and afternoon hours today will likely be strong enough to transport heavy bands as far inland as reaching Saginaw Bay. The focus of the typical northwest lake effect bands will be over NW lower snowbelts (big 5), with slightly weaker but more numerous bands over southern areas of NW lower. Nonetheless, strong winds and times of heavy snow (1-2"/hr) will result in hazardous travel conditions from blowing/drifting snow leading to poor visibilities. Quick accumulations on roads will also lead to slick conditions under the heavier snowbands. Strong winds and cold temperatures will also lead to cold wind chills today and tonight, with most spots remaining below 0 wind chill.

As the center of the surface high continues down the plains, winds will begin to back to the west late this afternoon and evening. This will shift the focus of lake effect snow bands to areas closer to the tip of the mitt. Intensities of bands will also likely be weakening, as dry and cold air settles in and winds weaken, however a focused band of heavy snow off of Little Traverse Bay is not out of the question. A weak upper wave will rotate through tonight, and could breifly spark up the lake effect engine while winds remain westerly.

As the colder temperatures settle in, chances for lake aggregate troughing remain very high over Lk Superior/the U.P. There is also good chances for drainage flow from the CAN shield to enhance low level convergence. This results in a likely continuation of moderate to heavy snow for parts of Chippewa county well into the night tonight (and likely tomorrow morning). At this time, better confidence lies in an intense band residing over (or at least near) Whitefish point tonight. However, less confidence is in that band extending into the SOO. Guidance shows a strong enough surge of drainage flow winds to keep the snow funneling away from the SOO, however any little changes in where the boundary sets up could lead it right into the SOO. For now, chances of that remain low.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 214 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Tuesday, another surface high will slide down the CAN/US plains and reinforce drier air over the CWA. Some lingering lake effect snow showers could be seen, however snow should be trending lighter or even ending through the day Tuesday.

In the surface high's wake, lee side troughing near SD/NE will return southerly winds to the plains. Broad upper troughing over most of the CONUS will steer this surface cyclone towards IA and the western Great Lakes region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Widespread light to moderate snow will move in early Wednesday with winds on the lighter side as the center of the low remains 1009 mb as it tracks across MI. There is still uncertainty with the exact track, which will determine where heavier snow near the FGEN boundary will be. At this time, ensembles favor keeping the higher totals south of the CWA (more in the central/southern part of the lower penisula).

West winds will build in behind the surface cyclone late Wednesday, ushering in more lake effect snow for typical snowbelt locations late Wednesday into Thursday.

Ensembles continue to increase confidence in very cold conditions seeping into the area Friday thru the weekend. A 1040 (maybe 1050mb) surface high will slide down the CAN plains and possibly right for towards the Great lakes region. This would bring very cold temperatures to the area, with LREF probs showing +90% chances for areas north of the bridge seeing Saturday afternoon highs below 0F (80% chances for higher terrain of northern lower).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Additional lake effect snow bands will continue today along with gusty winds dropping VSBY's to IFR and LIFR through tonight and even TEMPO VLIFR conditions at KTVC and KMBL this afternoon. -SN and -SHSN intensity will decrease overnight across the region but continue through the remainder of the TAF period at KTVC, KMBL, KCIU and KPLN at times. KAPN will lift to mostly VFR conditions by midday Tuesday, but VSBY's will breifly drop at times with VCSH moving through the site.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-020>022- 025>027-031>033-086-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ017-018- 023-028-029-034-035-041-087-088-095-096. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ022-027>030-032>036-086>088-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ341. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LSZ322.