textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Duck-friendly weather to carry through the remainder of the afternoon with gloomy skies and occasional drizzle tapering tonight.

-Dry and pleasant Thursday with some fire-weather concerns.

-Various rain chances scattered through the remainder of the forecast period coinciding with the first big time warmup of the warm season across the region this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Well-defined shortwave and associated surface low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to be forced eastward by ridging amplifying over the Plains. Aforementioned ridge axis will eventually fold over the region as a wave currently over the Pacific NW makes an attempt to crest the ridge, generally shearing itself out over northern Ontario but throwing a boundary through the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Another trough digs into the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies this weekend, which will lead to the re- amplification of the ridge axis just to our east as the trough becomes more longwave dominant. Result will be a split flow pattern that allows for the subtropical jet to be drawn northward. Ejection of several shortwaves pivoting around this longwave trough into the southern Plains will lead to efficient return flow, which will draw markedly warmer and more moist air into the Great Lakes by next week, and setting the stage for numerous appreciable rain chances.

Details:

Dreary. Clammy. Chilly. Duck weather. However warm weather enthusiasts want to describe the rest of today, be assured there looks to be light at the end of the tunnel. Wrap around moisture from the departing surface low pressure will continue to supply much of the area with gloomy skies and, for those in the interior northern lower terrain to northeast lower, orographically induced drizzle and light rain. Temperatures set to remain stonewalled in the 40s for the most part. Current gaze at visible satellite shows cloud cover scouring out across Wisconsin and as close as Munising in the central U.P., a trend which is anticipated to build into the region as subsidence induced by an oblong area of surface high pressure currently stretching from Hudson Bay to Kansas moves eastward with the building of 500mb height rises commencing. Result will be a clearing trend that should kick off by this evening across NW lower, eventually, carrying into northeast lower by sunrise tomorrow. On paper, this could be a frost / freeze setup... but current thinking is that ample surface moisture from recent rainfall and a lack of mixing to force lower dewpoints to the surface will keep overnight low temperatures from getting much below 35 across the region... with most guidance capping lows at 40 across portions of northeast lower. As such, will elect to message patchy frost potential tonight as opposed to diving into a full-blown headline for frost / freeze.

For Thursday, ample subsidence with surface high pressure right overhead will lead to a quick clearing trend of any cloud cover across the region and will commence what will be a welcome stretch of markedly warmer weather across the region. Aided by persistent northerly flow, anticipating RHs to drop into the 30s across much of the region, which does raise fire weather concerns, especially if the drier members of guidance depicting RHs coming close to 25 hit. Highs tomorrow likely jump into the 60s, perhaps pushing 70 south of M-72, which, with brilliant sunshine, will lead to efficient drying conditions. Nonetheless, fire danger will certainly be greater than normal... but following coordination with land management, have decided elevated fire danger messaging is a no-go for Thursday. Considering warmer temperatures and stronger winds to come into play Friday and Saturday with continued lower RHs, certainly will have to keep an eye out for fire weather concerns to close out the week. Looking ahead, moisture return will coalesce ahead of an intruding frontal boundary Friday night, which may eventually drum up shower and storm chances Saturday. Overall flow parallel to the front will lead to the pseudo-stalling of this frontal boundary overhead Friday night into Saturday. Result will be diurnally driven shower and storm potential Saturday... with minimal synoptic forcing to play with aside from this front. Extent of this activity comes into question considering the moisture slug is a bit on the weaker side, but steeper lapse rates aloft may be just enough to aid in instability development despite minimal moisture (Saturday dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 40s). The front is anticipated to sag southward into downstate come Sunday, but this trend will be short-lived. Amplifying ridging and return flow will force this front back northward Sunday night into Monday, and open the door for what will be the first summer-like feel the area has seen in who-knows how long ago (not that anyone is tracking or anything, but the last 80 degree day in Gaylord was October 5th, 2025, or 221 days ago, or 7 months and 9 days ago).

Current guidance trends indicate surface pressure falls will focus to the west across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, and thus will be the focus for convection... leaving northern Michigan firmly in the warm sector of strong SW return flow. Most guidance has northern lower jumping into the 80s, with the warmest models touching 90 (!) in some places Monday, while our friends north of the Big Bridge hold in the 70s. If the 850mb temps across long term guidance of 14 to 18 C are on the money (certainly subject to change), a fully mixed profile should yield surface air temps generally 83 to 91 degrees for Monday. Long-term guidance is pretty much on board with the frontal boundary driving convection to our west intruding Monday night into Tuesday, which, on paper, should return an appreciable rain chance to the region... perhaps even heavy rainfall in some places. More details to come.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Lingering showers/ drizzle will continue through the evening, keeping conditions MVFR to possibly IFR before an improvement to VFR area-wide this evening/tonight. Northwest winds will be breezy through early to mid evening with sustained 10-20 kts and gusts 25- 35 kts. Winds will diminish later this evening, especially tonight becoming AOB 10 knots and gain more of a northerly component by the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.