textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to windy today with showers/storms developing late in the day and continuing tonight.

- Showery into at least the early portions of Tuesday.

- Cooler Tuesday onward, with below freezing overnight low temperatures mid-late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Large upper low remains agitated across portions of Canada with general southwest flow aloft through the day today (and thus high temps soar to around +/- 70 degrees in interior northern lower). On the southeast periphery of this upper low in Canada, a vigorous short wave trough will flow east - northeast and with subsequent low pressure system lifting from IA to WI today, eventually into Ontario into tonight. Pressure gradient out ahead of this low pressure system will result in gusty winds through the day today and into this evening, with values 25 to 40 mph possible (highest may be across portions of eastern upper actually). Cannot rule out some locally higher gusts based on fcst soundings and where efficient boundary layer mixing takes place later this afternoon and early evening. Nevertheless, these southeasterly winds will advect a moist airmass into northern MI this evening and tonight, setting the stage for another round of precipitation tonight into Tuesday.

Best upper divergence/lift (due to the trough moving eastward) and low level convergence (along and ahead of the sfc front associated with the low pressure system, moisture advection, etc) overspread the region late this evening into tonight and thus the best timing for the steadiest precipitation. Prior to that, decaying MCS to our southwest this afternoon might produce showers and a few storms late this afternoon, esp west of 75. Like mentioned, the main event will be this evening and overnight as the best moisture and lift overspread the region.

Instability values are still in question, but consensus points towards minor/weak elevated instability (~few hundred j/kg) coupled with moderate to strong low level and deep layer shear (~20KTs+ to ~40 KTs, respectively) tonight. Although most, if not all, meaningful instability will be elevated, a robust thunderstorm developing within the strong low level jet tonight would bear watching (although not necessarily expected that at this time). That being said, the threat for severe storms is low overall with the Storm Prediction Center keeping the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) downstate and out of our county warning area. Based on the latest model guidance, it appears locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern with this activity given the well above normal PW airmass, weak convective instability (mostly elevated), and warm cloud heights ~8 kft. Most pieces of guidance suggest between ~0.25" and 0.80" of rain with this event, although there is the potential for localized >1.0" where and/or if more convective elements develop and are able to work into northern Michigan (especially across the southwest portions of the county warning area). There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of rain with this event, but worth trying to fine tune going forward. The main lift and moisture will advect east through the day on Tuesday, but showery activity will remain into the morning and midday hours at least for northwest lower and adjacent eastern upper.

Not a whole lot of sensible weather mid to late week and beyond. General troughiness and northwest flow will keep the Great Lakes Region seasonably cool, with a couple of cold nights on tap. Current forecast suggests below freezing values Wednesday night through at least Friday night, potentially leading to a few issues with any sensitive vegetation at this point in time. Suppose a shower or two cannot be ruled out with the individual troughiness at any point in time during this time frame as well, but this will not be a big deal if it even happens. Perhaps signs of subtle recovery during the second half of the weekend, although the upper level pattern remains highly energetic/volatile thereafter.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 703 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Starting VFR today with gusty SE winds building through the afternoon. Gusts may crack 30 to 35kts later this afternoon into the evening. High cloud expected through much of the afternoon, with lowering CIGs into the evening as a decaying complex of TSRA approaches from the SW. Strong flow aloft will lead to the development of LLWS this evening into tonight... along with the potential for this flow to mix to the surface in showers if we can hold onto enough instability. Not enough to include in the TAFs for the time being but certainly may appear in future issuances or amendments. Otherwise, SHRA set to prevail later in the evening into the overnight, with aa gradual plummeting in flight categories... first to MVFR CIGs during rain... eventually downgrading further to IFR and LIFR in the wake of the steadiest RA / most frequent SHRA by Tuesday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.