textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog likely tonight with cool nights through the weekend.

- Very quiet into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Rex block coinciding with strong surface high over Quebec will allow for further blocking to materialize with a developing nor'easter set to move through the 40/70 benchmark off the mid Atlantic coast and largely stall out. Expanding influence of this system will lead to the rex block and surface high to retrograde west into the Great Lakes into next week... essentially reducing any incoming shortwaves to some increased cloud cover overhead owing to minimal moisture intrusion. Meanwhile, longwave troughing over the Pacific coast will lead to deep tropical Pacific moisture advection to manifest within an active subtropical jet, leading to periodic ejections of energy into the central and southern Plains. The blocking and surface high overhead should remain steadfast, but there are some indications that just enough of this moisture may leak northward later into next week to perhaps drum up some rain chances.

Details:

Strong surface high pressure and subsidence will suppress most incoming weather concerns. A look at satellite really showcases this... weak northern stream shortwave leading to thicker cloud cover across the pond in Wisconsin and into Minnesota, but struggling mightily to expand into our neck of the woods. Already meager rainfall from this system will essentially dry up before it gets here through the day, leading to just some increased mid to high cloud cover over the region. Once this dissipating wave clears, the retrograding core of the cut off ridge and surface high pressure moves overhead, and returns drier and clearer weather to the region. As noted by previous forecaster... may need to watch fire weather parameters, but with such a meager pressure gradient, will be hard pressed to have legitimate, headline attaining fire weather concerns during this stretch of weather, despite daytime temperatures running above normal into the 70s. One thing to note... will still need to watch for patchy frost concerns tonight and Saturday night, though recent data is trending a touch more bearish to this idea... Friday night owing to a bit more of a widespread fog footprint potentially stonewalling falling temperatures, and Saturday night owing to less confidence in a deeper, cool and dry layer within the profile to really attain a diurnal temperature swing of or in excess of 35 degrees between daytime high and nighttime low temps.

Looking into next week, particularly midweek and beyond, moisture ejections from the aforementioned active Pacific moisture transport regime within the subtropical jet will make an attempt to drive rain chances back into the region. With periods of ridging overhead through much of the week and a weaker northern stream flow with minimal shortwave action, I do have a hard time seeing meaningful rain chances reaching far enough north into the region to have anything more than a scattered rain coverage. Split flow patterns are pretty common within strong El Nino regimes, and pattern recognition says that a stationary front currently draped across the southern Plains into the Gulf States will be the focus for a majority of this activity, and sops up the deepest moisture advection in the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. Furthermore, without any potent wave ejections to drive LLJ manifestation, anticipate that the northward advance of deeper moisture leaves much to be desired until late in the week, and beyond the forecast period into next weekend. As such... will hold off on any aggressive rain messaging into next week, as this setup remains rather unclear at this juncture.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 551 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly burn off after sunrise, leaving behind VFR condtions under decreasing high level clouds. While confidence is low, will need to be on the lookout for more fog/mist again later tonight, potentially resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions. Light winds, with local lake breeze development this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.