textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winter storm to result in significant travel impacts across the area through Monday evening.

- Colder with additional chances for more lake enhanced snow through the remainder of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 523 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

We've been so so slow to warm today. Though northern lower MI will continue to see temps creep higher (we're up to 31.4f at our office), freezing rain concerns look to be higher than expected earlier in the interior of northern lower MI. Have pushed up the start time for the winter storm warning in Otsego/Montmorency Cos to this evening, to match counties further north.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Water vapor imagery says it all, with vigorous troughing digging east/southeast across the northern Plains...with elongated tropical Pacific moisture plume rotating northeast ahead of it into the Great Lakes. Deep layer dynamics supplied by that shortwave trough and 120+ knot upper level jet helping steadily deepening the surface response along lower Lakes tight thermal gradient...with sub 1000mb low cutting northeast across northern Illinois. Two distinct areas of heavier precipitation, with a large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the lower Lakes within region of intense deep layer moisture convergence...with a second area of wintry precipitation expanding across the Upper Mississippi Valley tied to the main mid level wave itself. Northern Michigan currently centered largely between these heavier precipitation axes...with just pockets of lighter precipitation moving across tied to sustained isentropic upglide within broad elevated warm air advection pattern. Unfortunately...given that warm layer aloft and still cold surface temperatures...some of that is falling as freezing rain/drizzle... especially across eastern upper and some of the highlands of northern lower.

Illinois low will continue its steady northeast pace across lower Michigan this evening...with tight thermal gradient and support from both the deepening shortwave and strong upper jet helping it rapidly intensify as it does so. Mid level wave continues to intensify as it crosses overhead as well tonight, with it and by then its near 980mb surface reflection moving off to our east Monday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Impacts from developing winter storm...to include freezing rain concerns this evening, followed by increasingly gusty winds and heavy snow later tonight into Monday.

Details:

Really, not a whole lot of additional detail to add to the ongoing forecast. Only real concern for significant changes is with the potential for more freezing rain further south into parts of northern lower Michigan this evening. Current temperatures running up the spine of northern lower Michigan are running precariously close to the freezing mark. Warm air layer just off the deck is deep and impressive, so gotta believe some of that warmer air will mix down as heavier precipitation arrives quickly this evening. Still an uncomfortable part of the forecast (still dealing with forecast trauma from last Spring's ice storm...lol), and something to continue to monitor as we head into the evening. A bit more certain that areas north of the big bridge stay a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet as surface temperatures cool slightly. Any mixed precipitation expected to change over to snow across eastern upper later this evening into the overnight as rapid cooling aloft eliminates the warm nose. Forcing up that way remains impressive, with strong deformation-driven lift and maturing trowal on northern periphery of the surface low...with that lift becoming increasingly aligned within the favored snow growth zone by later tonight. Heaviest snow will exit off into Ontario as we head through the morning, but definitely could see inch per hour snowfall rates at times tonight into the first part of the morning. Low level flow not overly supportive of any Lake Superior contribution, although suppose we could see a little bit of lake enhancement across far western Chippewa County later on Monday. All told, probably looking at a solid 8 to 12 inches across eastern upper Michigan...with some locally higher amounts where better synoptic-driven banding structures are realized.

A bit of a different story for areas south of the Mighty Mac with the transition to snow holding off a few hours from what occurs in eastern upper Michigan. Rain/freezing rain will transition to snow from west to east through the overnight. Best trowal support initially remains north, eventually sweeping southeast late...decreasing in strength as it does so. Rapidly cooling profiles through the vertical will help entice some Lake Michigan moisture contribution...especially near and south of Grand Traverse Bay. Periods of snow with some embedded lake enhancement will continue through Monday...with heaviest snow expected across northwest lower Michigan. Per the usual, much more variability expected in snowfall totals across northern lower Michigan, with amounts ranging from 4 to 10 inches across northwest lower Michigan into the tip of the mitt counties...to just a few inches down near Saginaw Bay.

Other big area of concern with this system is gusty winds...driven by strong cold air advection within a rapidly increasing surface pressure gradient. Some very impressive signatures showing up in hi- res guidance soundings, with even partial mixing through a slowly deepening boundary layer Monday supporting frequent wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, with gusts in excess of 50 mph easily attainable Monday morning into the early afternoon...especially across northwest lower Michigan. Combine this with that falling snow, and little doubt we will see localized blizzard conditions at times with near whiteouts...especially in those more open areas. Will continue to highlight this concern in our Winter Storm Warnings and through our graphics/other hazardous weather products. Of course, with those strong winds will likely come some power outages...especially considering some of the lingering broken canopy from the Spring ice storm. Definitely a day we would recommend avoiding travel if at all possible.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Strong low pressure will continue to push further off to the east Monday night. Rest of the extended looks to be dominated by troughing and attendant northwest flow aloft. This will keep our weather somewhat active and much colder.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Initial focus on lingering impacts from Monday's storm, with additional attention directed at impacts from a passing clipper-type system later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Details:

While improving some, still looking at gusty winds and lingering lake-driven snow showers Monday night. Probably not a whole lot of additional snow, but travel difficulties will likely continue with areas of blowing and drifting snow. Next order of business is weak disturbance expected to pass quickly across the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not a whole lot of forcing or synoptic moisture with this system. However, over-water environment remains more than supportive enough for some lake enhancement. Easily looking for at least a few inches of snow in our famed lake prone areas of both peninsulas...likely heaviest though across northwest lower Michigan where best synoptic contribution will pass. Not seeing any other significant systems beyond Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain several degrees colder than normal, with some areas likely not getting out of the teens Wednesday through Friday, with overnight lows in the single digits (perhaps below zero). This cold will likely result in some periodic lake snow chances, but again, not seeing anything significant at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions tonight and much Monday. Strong low pressure crosses lower MI tonight, with rain in northern lower, mixed precip including FZRA at CIU. Late tonight, much colder air invades, turning precip to snow. Cigs will eventually improve on Monday, but snow/BLSN will result in very low vsbys at times. Improving conditions and lessening winds as we head into Monday evening.

Ongoing e to se winds become nw and very gusty on Monday, 40+ knot gusts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>018-022- 023-098. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ020-021- 025>027-031-032-099. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ024-028-033. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ029-030- 034>036-041-042. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...Storm Warning from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Storm Warning from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321- 322.