textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- High to very high fire danger today with gusty winds, temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, and drying conditions.

- Temperatures warm through the weekend into early next week, with the warmest day forecasted Monday.

- Occasional chances for showers/ thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week, with some stronger storms possible later Monday/ Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Broad zonal flow remains in place across the region through the weekend, although the overall pattern begins to become much more amplified as we head into early next week as a trough digs into the Rockies Sunday into Monday. In response, southwest flow steadily increases across the Great Lakes, allowing a much warmer and increasingly humid airmass to surge north into the region. Overall, the pattern becomes considerably more active heading into Monday and Tuesday as deeper moisture and stronger forcing overspread the Great Lakes.

A weak cold front continues to slide through the region through this morning with instability remaining fairly limited overall. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue through the morning, with overall rainfall still looking rather unimpressive with many locations likely receiving minor rainfall accumulations (around tenth or two possible, especially west of I-75 and south of M-72). Cooler air behind the aforementioned front remains fairly weak, and continued warm temperatures aloft combined with decent afternoon mixing should support highs once again reaching well into the 70s and lower 80s. With suspected active lake breezes, areas near the lakeshores and eastern Upper will remain somewhat cooler but still push into the 70s. Afternoon humidities today are expected to drop into the upper teens to mid 20s with west winds 10 to 15 mph gusting regularly to 25 mph, occasionally to 30 mph in spots. As a result, high to very high fire danger is expected. Please see the latest fire weather planning forecast (FWF) for additional details.

The warmer pattern really begins to ramp up Sunday as strengthening southwest flow pushes increasing moisture back into the Great Lakes while a warm front lifts north through the region. A few showers remain possible at times, although much of the stronger forcing and better low-level jet support still appears west through much of the day. By Monday, northern Michigan becomes firmly entrenched within the warm sector ahead of a strengthening low pressure tracking west of the Great Lakes. Gusty southwest winds and increasingly efficient daytime mixing should support widespread 80s across much of northern Lower, and I would not be surprised to see a few northeast Lower downsloping locations make a run toward 90 degrees if enough sunshine develops. Meanwhile, cooler conditions will persist closer to the lakeshores and across eastern Upper.

Attention increasingly turns toward later Monday into Monday night as the environment becomes more supportive of organized convection. Moisture continues rapidly increasing during this timeframe, with PWAT values climbing over 1.0". Current guidance still generally favors the better overlap of stronger instability and deep layer shear remaining displaced somewhat west of the area, but forecast details remain highly dependent on convective evolution upstream and exactly how far east better instability can spread ahead of the approaching front. Given strengthening wind fields and increasing moisture/ instability, cannot rule out a few stronger storms locally Monday night into Tuesday. Latest SPC outlooks continue highlighting this possibility with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall as the biggest hazards.

Guidance continues showing some spread regarding frontal timing Tuesday, likely tied at least in part to how Monday night convection evolves and whether any stronger convectively enhanced boundaries develop. As a result, at least some lingering showers and storms may continue into Tuesday before quieter weather gradually returns through the mid next week. Temperatures during this timeframe look to settle back closer to seasonal norms, perhaps even a touch below normal by midweek (50s/60s).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR for most of tonight. However, a couple of rounds of showers will target eastern upper MI and central/southern lower MI late tonight into Sat morning. A period of MVFR cigs is expected Sat morning at all sites but APN and TVC. Improving to VFR across the board Sat afternoon. S to sw winds will be breezy thru the forecast, especially Saturday. LLWS part of tonight CIU/PLN/MBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Fire Weather Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ345-349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LSZ321-322.