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KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers possible across parts of northern MI later this afternoon into tonight.

- Above normal temperatures return Wednesday and continue through at least early next week.

- Shower chances return late Wednesday night - Thursday, and perhaps again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, while mid-level ridging is evident across the Great Lakes, primary focus revolves around incoming shortwave that's currently across the Dakotas into MN. An attendant weak surface reflection is expected to shift northeast into Ontario this evening, aiding to continue to drag a low-level baroclinic zone northward across northern MI. An uptick in forcing for ascent ahead of this wave may prove to be enough to squeeze out light showers across parts of the area into tonight. This wave departs east on Wednesday, with a warm front lifting north across northern MI during the morning hours, setting the stage for another round of above normal temperatures. Shower chances return late Wednesday night - Thursday as another area of low pressure treks by to our north, dragging a cold front across the area locally. Additional shower chances may present themselves at times over the Halloween weekend, with the highest chances likely holding off until next week.

Forecast Details: At least low shower chances return to parts of northern MI later this afternoon and evening, potentially lingering off/on at times into a chunk of tonight. These chances generally M-32 and north, and really more of a nuisance than anything, as any meaningful QPF chances are low. These chances largely depart off to the north and east by 09-12z Wednesday.

Another warm up for Wednesday under partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures favored in the 60s area-wide with a handful of low 70s likely across northern lower. This places at least a few climate sites within a few degrees of daily high temp records (ANJ, PLN, GLR, HTL -- see table below for existing record highs). While Thursday - Sunday high temperatures will be cooler than Wednesday, above normal temperatures are expected to continue -- generally ranging from the mid-upper 50s north and low-mid 60s south.

October 28 High Temperature Records Location | High Temp (Year) ANJ | 64 F (1924) PLN | 71 F (1955) GLR | 70 F (1955) APN | 75 F (1989) HTL | 73 F (1989) TVC | 80 F (1927)

Shower chances return late Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front crosses northern MI. While expected coverage of these showers continues to wane a bit, they still should be pretty numerous late Wednesday night across sections of eastern upper and northwest lower. Perhaps even a rumble of thunder for far northwest lower. Overall coverage expected to wane further with eastern extent Thursday morning before chances exit stage right through Thursday afternoon. Expansive high pressure drifts in Thursday night through at least the first half of Saturday/Halloween day -- yielding quieter weather with continued above normal temperatures. Some PoPs do return later in the day Saturday, but not a lot of confidence in that at this point. Somewhat higher chances for showers Sunday, and even more so at times next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Largely VFR tonight. Will contend with some pesky -SHRA at CIU with cloud bases hovering right around 3kft... so could see the occasional dip to MVFR thru 9z. Otherwise, skies clear with S to SSE winds 10-15kts (some gusts approaching 20kts at PLN and TVC) for Wednesday. Next system hot on the heels of the one overhead... initial warning shot will be a rapid increase in flow aloft which will likely result in LLWS at 2kft developing after 2z Thursday. Clouds increase as well, but showers and any lowered flight categories should hold off til the very end of or after the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.