textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering Breezy, Drizzly Conditions Today...

- Rain/storm chances return midweek...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad ridge remains in place over the southwestern US...but northern axis is being shunted eastward into the Upper Midwest attm as an upper low tracks across southern Canada, deepening as it goes. 560dm 500mb low encompasses the Lower Great Lakes, centered just east of Georgian Bay...with a 1003mb occluded surface low as a response. Cold air mass (+8C at 850mb overhead attm) associated with this feature resulting in a tight thermal gradient and attendant 100+kt upper jet wrapping from Lake Superior through the Mid-Atlantic, and up through New England and eastern Canada. Return flow through the Plains aiding in a plume of moisture stretching from central Canada ahead of aforementioned upstream trough, down into the Lower MS Valley and around to the Canadian coast, along/ahead of a surface boundary from disturbance in Saskatchewan...wrapping back around the upper low over eastern Canada. Warm/moist advection wrapping around the backside of the low into the Upper Great Lakes, with strong low- level flow through the Soo into Lake Huron. Area of stratiform rain wrapping down across the eastern half of the CWA attm with a few NW flow lake effect/enhanced showers showing their face as of 5z near and west of I-75.

Ridge axis to slide overhead today...and will expect the influence of the upper low and filling surface low to further wane as we go through the day. Upstream upper low crests the longwave ridge axis Tuesday and begins to track southeastward into the Upper Midwest...bringing our next shot at rain/storms. This feature appears to slow a bit, crossing the Upper Great Lakes at some point Wednesday/Wednesday night. Upstream ridging strengthens over central Canada in its wake...with some energy attempting to enter western Canada...and an upper low developing over Hudson Bay that should try to scoop up our midweek system. This suggests we will remain in the presence of a baroclinic zone for late week...and with cool/cold, cyclonic flow influencing our weather again, would anticipate unsettled weather will prevail. Attm...quite a bit of uncertainty in the evolution of the forecast for the end of next week, depending on when Pacific energy attempts to eject through the flow, which should increase return flow through the central US and should keep the unsettled idea going into the end of August. Ridge axis over central Canada may get pinched quite tightly, but there are some signals it may try to hold on going into next weekend...and will certainly need to keep an eye on this for some kind of blocking pattern to develop to our north.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lingering breezy conditions and rain showers today...Strongest winds will be this morning into early afternoon, with sustained winds remaining around 10-15kts, but the pressure gradient will be diminishing, and think there is a reasonable shot we could end up with light/variable winds after dark tonight as high pressure builds in. Plume of richer moisture (both in an absolute and relative sense) looks slow to depart, especially northeast Lower, and think this is where there will be a better shot at seeing more persistent rain/drizzle today...though not impossible things could stay a little more drizzly near Gaylord with northwest flow upsloping through the day, and there could be an uptick in coverage in the afternoon with a niblet of PV looking to swing through. However, there are not terribly strong signals for forcing attm, and have suspicions we may not end up with much more than scattered/broken stratocu.

Rain/storms Tuesday night-Wednesday...We could start to see the first inklings of at least mid/high clouds by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system...though not impossible some rain showers may try to sneak in during this time. Better theta-e advection enters the scene Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as the system looks to take shape a little better upstream ahead of the digging trough, and this this is the more likely timeframe for rain and thunderstorms to move in...perhaps as some sort of upstream convective feature/dying convective feature that crosses the lake? Though this could bring a warm nose that could take most of the day to overcome...but it currently appears we have potential for several hundred joules of elevated instability to work with, which could become surface-based in the afternoon if we warm enough. With marginal (30ish kts, give or take) deep-layer shear in play, think we will need to keep an eye out for some storm organization as well.

Absolute moisture increases again along/ahead of the associated cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, perhaps up towards 1.5in...and with signals for reasonable synoptic forcing to work with, and perhaps not overly fast storm motions...will need to monitor for heavy rain potential right on into Wednesday night. Appears the most likely area for heavier rainfall will be the Yoop, closer to the better forcing with potential for a niblet to lift out ahead of the main trough (sort of a Maddox Synoptic Type heavy rainfall event, from a pattern recognition standpoint...though we lack the jet coupling usually involved in that setup). Attm...probabilistic guidance suggests there is a 20-40 percent chance of some portion of the EUP seeing an inch of rain in 24hrs during the Wednesday timeframe...but still have a couple days to nail down some of the finer details a little better and hone in on any higher QPF bullseyes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Current MVFR CIGs will clear this afternoon resulting in all sites becoming VFR this evening. Lingering low level moisture will support BR with patchy FG development overnight, dropping VSBYs and CIGs to MVFR and IFR mainly between 0600Z and 1200Z. VFR will quickly build Tuesday morning through the remainder of the forecast period at all TAF sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016- 018-020-024-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.