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KEY MESSAGES

- Light freezing rain/mixed precipitation potential for eastern upper early Thursday; Rain to snow transition across northern Michigan with frontal passage during the afternoon and evening.

- Much colder temperatures with light snow shower chances Friday night and Saturday.

- An active weather pattern developing next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Expansive high pressure anchored over the southwest CONUS with increasingly active Pacific jet stream racing across the northern tier of the country. A tightening baroclinic zone across northern portions of our area may create some precipitation type issues as warmer air surges northward over a retreating low level cold airmass. A weak cool front slips through the area tonight, with a stronger front poised to sweep across the area later Thursday. An upper level shortwave embedded within a 150+ kt 200mb jet will slide across the northern lakes Thursday morning, with deeper moisture (PWATs 200% of normal) making a push into the area ahead of a cold front dropping south out of Canada. Over eastern upper, forecast soundings show the hint of a mid layer warm nose with surface temperatures a little below freezing. Also some dry air in the mid levels which could push things more to snow with moistening. A period of some light freezing rain or mixed precipitation will be possible Thursday morning over eastern upper with slick roads. Eventually any lingering precipitation would likely transition to snow before ending. Overall precipitation amounts should be light and any accumulations of ice/snow minor.

South of the bridge on Thursday, rain will develop with favorable jet dynamics, combined with increasing low level convergence along the front dropping south. A very tight thermal gradient from north to south across the area with a warm and increasingly unstable airmass sitting just south of our area with a few thunderstorms possible as far north as Saginaw Bay. Fropa will occur during the afternoon/early evening for most areas with temperatures dropping quickly. Rain will likely change to snow from north to south with fropa, with some minor snow accumulations possible. There could also be a bit of freezing drizzle during the evening as the mid level moisture strips out. With temperatures dropping below freezing, slick roads will be possible.

Things quiet down for the end of the week through the weekend, with Canadian high pressure sliding south of the area as an 850mb thermal trough swings across the Great Lakes. Below normal temperatures Friday/Saturday, modifying back toward more seasonably mild readings by Sunday into the first of next week. A few weaker upper level waves will slide across the area Friday night and Saturday, likely bringing an uptick in snow shower activity with some lake response possible. Minor snow accumulations. Models are beginning to show a more active pattern taking shape over the Great Lakes by the middle of next week with energy ejecting out of a western CONUS trough. With a still deep reservoir of cold air sitting just north of area, a myriad of precipitation types may (emphasize may) occur in the northern Great Lakes. Still plenty of model spread in solutions, so just something to watch at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through tonight. A mix of rain and snow will work into the area from west to east Thursday morning, bringing a return of degraded flight conditions by mid to late morning. IFR CIGs look to spread across most of the area by early afternoon -- the exception most likely being far southwest portions of the forecast area near MBL. Drops to IFR VSBYs are also likely at times through Thursday afternoon. Conditions look to improve late Thursday afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast, potentially even returning to VFR conditions for most areas by 06Z Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ345-346.