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KEY MESSAGES

-Quiet and overall pleasant weather today.

-Seasonably warm temperatures build this weekend.

-Periodic chances of light showers weekend into next week with the widespread chances favoring next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave midlevel troughing that delivered active weather the previous two days will continue to shift eastward, allowing upstream ridging to move over the Midwest. Midlevel height rises and warmer Pacific air mass influence will return surface temperatures to climatological norms today. At the same time, a second shortwave over the Canadian Plains will lift northeast and weaken as it moves toward southern Hudson Bay. An attached surface low will drag a dissipating frontal boundary across the Northwoods this Friday. This boundary has enough energy to continue a few light showers, but most of the CWA will see little to no measurable rainfall.

The midlevel pattern turns somewhat more zonal across the CONUS this weekend. A few embedded height disturbances will continue periodic chances of precipitation through the remainder of the forecast period. Saturday remains dry overall, but a midlevel baroclinic setup to our south could spread light showers to a few parts of the CWA. The next chance of widespread precipitation remains around the Monday/Tuesday timeframe as another wave develops low pressure over the central plains and lifts through the Great Lakes Region, with enough instability to support showers and storms.

Forecast Details:

Quiet and overall pleasant weather today...Surface high pressure with attached subsidence aloft will result in what can be described as the best day this week in terms of "pleasant weather." Skies will clear by 12z this morning as warm(er) H8 temperatures in the single digits move into the region. Adiabatic heating processes will warm surface highs into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon with light variable winds. The only potential concern to monitor is the typical afternoon mixing down to the surface. Dew points near freezing today will drop minimum RHs to the low 30s and potentially near critical levels for the typically drier areas of Northern Lower.

Seasonably warm temperatures build this weekend... Surface temperatures will slowly climb as 850mb temperatures warm, advecting a warmer Pacific air mass into the Midwest. Low level temps in the low single digits today will quickly reach the mid teens by Saturday, causing surface surface highs to reach the upper 70s/low 80s. Warmest day will likely remain on Monday due to strong southerly warm advection ahead of the aforementioned system later Monday night with highs in the mid 80s for most of Northern Lower along with dew points in the 60s.

Periodic chances of light showers weekend into next week with the widespread chances favoring next week... Aforementioned zonal flow pattern aloft this weekend will keep the majority of the forecast period somewhat quiet. Embedded height waves combined with a baroclinic set up to our south will keep slight chances of scattered precipitation in the forecast, but most areas are expected to remain dry. Best chance of widespread showers will be generated by the previously mentioned trough lee of the American Rockies as it lifts through the Midwest. Strong midlevel flow, favorable midlevel lapse rates, and moderate CAPE values indicate a moderate chance of some embedded severe weather combined with several indices supporting heavy rainfall. At this time, it is too early to estimate impacts, but this feature will continue to be monitored as we head into mid May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 629 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR through the period with generally light north to north- northwest winds today becoming calm this evening into tonight. High clouds increase late in the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.