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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain-free and mild to warm weather into Thursday, allowing for some improvement across flood-impacted areas of northern Michigan.

- Next Main rain chances return Friday into Saturday with rain- free weather moving in late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A subtle shortwave embedded in the large-scale flow will pass overhead this evening as expansive ridging continues to fold across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Said ridging will amplify with time through the middle of the week as southern stream and northern stream troughing dig across portions of the western CONUS. Subsidence overhead will keep surface high pressure in place across the Great Lakes and surrounding areas for most of this work week. This changes as aforementioned troughing progresses across the Great Plains and Midwest late this week, supporting a cyclone with an attendant cold front that looks to swing across the state in the late Friday/Saturday timeframe. Additional ridging and associated high pressure then look to build into the region again late this weekend into early next week.

Forecast Details:

Rain-free weather is expected across northern Michigan into Thursday with high pressure in place near the Great Lakes and to our north for most of this week. Mild temperatures will stick around through Thursday. Highs look to climb well into the 60s and even low 70s for parts of interior northern lower on Thursday with cooler readings anticipated near the lakeshores and north of the bridge. These dry conditions and sunny skies are very much welcomed by areas still recovering from recent flooding. Improvement across impacted areas is expected over the next several days, although some locations/ basins may be slower to respond than others.

While a few showers cannot be ruled out later Thursday, attention largely turns to the Friday/Saturday timeframe as our next main round of rain chances returns as the front swings in. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, high-quality moisture looks to position itself ahead of the front late this week -- PWAT values exceeding 1" would encroach on climatological max values for the end of April. Meager instability appears it should hinder thunderstorm chances, but the moisture-rich airmass will likely support efficient rainfall with any activity across the area. Most likely timing for rain and perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder will be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. While widespread rainfall amounts look at stay in the ballpark of 0.5" at this time, there are low chances for some areas to see 1"+ of rainfall by Saturday morning should heavier rain/embedded storms track over specific locations. Following this round of rain, a return of dry conditions is anticipated through the end of the weekend into early next week as high pressure builds back in.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR through the period. Winds light and locally influenced (terrain and lake breeze after 20z) with a occasional G15kts at a site or two. Skies generally SKC with times of FEW AOA 10 kft.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 127 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

River levels across the board continue to decrease, albeit some lakes are still elevated and causing issues. Mullet lake leveled out around 596.1 ft, a full 2 ft above the record heights, and there have been reports and footage of homes still flooded along Black Lake. Thus, localized flooding near some rivers, lakes, and poor drainages continue. That being said, the current flow (analyzed by the National Water Model) across portions of the Pigeon, Sturgeon, Thunder Bay, portions of the Au Sable, and Boardman Rivers are at an annual exceedance of between 20-50% (in other words, an ARI flow rate of 2-5 years, which is minor). This is true for rivers across the Tittabawassee/Tobacco River Basin as well. Conversely, flows across the Manistee River, Cheboygan River, Black River, and portions of the Muskegon River remain at a ~2% annual exceedance (flow rate ARI of 50 years, much more significant). This is evident in the hydrographs across our area as well, with a steady decrease for most. Our flood warnings remain across the locations with the higher flows, more or less. Localized flooding does continue near some of these rivers, lakes, and poor drainage areas.

Improvement should continue through much of the rest of this week with dry conditions through Thursday. The next rain maker will move in during the day on Friday for most, with moderate rain possible across northern MI. Current guidance suggests a low to medium-ish (~20 to 50%) chance for >0.50" through Friday night. Convectively enhanced precipitation would lead to locally heavy rainfall given enough instability manifests. HEFS guidance does show subtle river rises/responses due to this rainfall, but nothing alarming at this time. That being said, the sensitive, poor drainage areas with lingering water/flooding will need to be watched, especially with soil moisture still ~45-60% across portions of northern lower Michigan.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.