textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Sporadic shower/storm chances for a few days, highest Wednesday.

- Somewhat cooler temps late this week and weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Low heights over the eastern Canada, and persistent ridging over the mountain west, will lead to wnw flow aloft into the Great Lakes thru the forecast. The most active areas of wx will tend to be to our north (showery under much colder temps aloft) and south (MCS action along a wavering frontal zone). Our wx remains comparatively quiet, but not absolutely so.

Isolated convection is occurring early this morning, along a weak cold front making southward progress into the central lakes. MA few showers are moving east from the Cheboygan area, and there were a few showers earlier in ne WI. Guidance wants to bring a stray shower/storm into nw lower MI late overnight into early this morning. Away from this, lower clouds and fog are forming with light winds and a moist BL. A larger area of convection is moving into sw lower MI, and this may have some opportunity to grow upscale as it translates eastward. Models do allow the northern edge of this MCS to glance by Gladwin/Arenac Cos this morning. Otherwise, for the afternoon, the Lk Huron lake breeze pushing into a synoptic nw breeze may trigger a few showers/ storms in ne lower MI. Mainly quiet tonight, though patchy fog/stratus is again expected overnight. With very weak winds Tuesday, lake breezes are likely to spawn spotty convection, mainly in eastern upper and ne lower MI.

Better chance for showers/perhaps t-storms arrives late Tue night into Wed, as weak low pressure and an associated shortwave cross lower MI. This gets replaced by a relatively strong/cool surface high pressure, building into northern Ontario and eventually northern Great Lakes late this week. Cooler temps but dry wx by Thu night-Fri. A more prominent shortwave and surface low looks likely to push into the southern lakes Sat-Sun, returning chances for rain. Max temps, after being near 80f today thru Wed, will lower into the 70s after that.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 643 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Contending with some fog/stratus as expected this morning, mainly CIU and MBL. Conditions will improve fairly quickly this morning, then VFR for the rest of the day. Possible for a SHRA/TSRA to pop up this afternoon near APN, but this chance is not high enough to mention in the TAF. Additional fog/low clouds is possible again late tonight, especially MBL/PLN/CIU. Northwest winds get a little breezy this afternoon, with light winds returning tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.