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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances across the eastern U.P. this afternoon gradually sag into northern lower this evening/tonight.

- Brief cool down Monday and Tuesday, then mild temperatures return with rain chances returning mid-late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is in the process of crossing well to our north across Hudson Bay. Attendant weak cold front is draped from northern Quebec southwestward into the central Plains -- slowly making inroads into the eastern U.P. This boundary will work its way into northern lower by early evening and clear the area the forecast area to the southeast tonight. Couple of cooler days on tap Monday-Tuesday as a result, but northern MI should sit on the periphery of ~1035mb high pressure passing by to our north with little in the way of active weather to start the work week. Focus then turns to the Wednesday night - Thursday time frame as another wave treks out of the Pac NW into north-central Canada, again dragging a cold front across northern MI. This period looks to feature higher rain shower chances locally. Additional more active weather may return for parts of the Halloween weekend.

Forecast Details: Cold front alluded to above is making headway into eastern upper early this afternoon, expected to make slow southeast progress into northern lower later this afternoon/early evening, eventually clearing the forecast area late tonight. While impacts should be nil, isolated to scattered light rain shower chances will accompany this boundary, primarily across the eastern U.P. this afternoon before gradually sagging south this evening through tonight. A few showers may linger across far southeast areas into early Monday morning. All in all, not a lot of rain, with the vast majority of the area hard-pressed to get more than a few hundredths, if any at all.

Post-frontal cooler temperatures progged for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 40s far north and through the 50s over northern lower -- certainly closer to what would be considered normal for late October.

Temperatures rebound back to well-above normal levels Wednesday as northern MI sits firmly under WAA in advance of a wave trekking from the northern Plains to near Hudson Bay. Highs Wednesday progged in the 60s to near 70 area-wide. This warmth in advance of that system dragging another cold front across the area by late Wednesday night into Thursday. Shower chances return through this time and currently expected to be more numerous/widespread than today-tonight's showers.

Looking toward Halloween weekend, above normal temperatures anticipated for Friday through Sunday, with latest trends supporting low-mid 60s over northern lower and a touch cooler north of the bridge for Halloween day. Rain chances may return next weekend as well, but lots of spatial/temporal uncertainty at this point.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

-SHRA and VCSH will continue this afternoon as a frontal boundary makes its way across Northern Michigan. Ceilings will lower to 3500ft tonight, but temporary ceiling reductions to 2500ft may occur mainly between 0000 and 0600z for most TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will turn to the North by Monday morning, and cloud cover will dissipate Monday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.