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KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly temperatures tonight, potentially dipping into the upper 20s and low 30s for some.

- Showers and storms return late Monday into Tuesday, bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall and exacerbating ongoing flooding.

- Cooler weather moves in Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will remain centered over the Great Lakes tonight and Sunday, along with associated surface high pressure. Ridging will then fold eastward Monday into Monday night as strong troughing punches from the southern Great Plains over the region. Forcing provided aloft will deepen a cyclone over the Great Plains that looks to trek across the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday with the attendant cold front swinging across the area during the same timeframe. More expansive troughing looks to churn over the Great Lakes through the remainder of the work week.

Forecast Details:

Low clouds have hung around across much of northern Michigan so far today, but are expected to gradually clear with time into this evening as high pressure continues to build in. Mostly clear skies and weak/calm winds should aid more efficient cooling overnight with temperatures dropping into the low 30s for many areas along and east of US-131 -- and potentially into the upper 20s for localized low- lying cold spots across interior northern lower. Temperatures should quickly warm Sunday morning with highs climbing into the 60s for more areas away from the Lake Huron shoreline.

A mild and breezy day is in store on Monday. Temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 70s for most of northern lower with southeast winds gusting to 25-35 mph late Monday morning into Monday night. Increasing clouds are anticipated Monday as our next round of showers and storms moves in along/ahead of the aforementioned front. Most showers/storms should hold off during the day Monday with best chances arriving from west to east after 8 PM/00Z. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time. The primary concern will once again be the potential for locally heavy rainfall exacerbating ongoing flooding across portions of northern Michigan. While still several days away, localized rainfall totals of 1"+ may be possible where strongest showers/storms track.

After Monday night, much cooler temperatures settle into northern Michigan through the remainder of the week. Highs may struggle to warm past the upper 40s and low 50s Wednesday through Friday with sub-freezing overnight lows, which would be close to 10 degrees cooler than average heading into May.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Patches of IFR/MVFR stratus and/or fog expected through the remainder of the night, likely becoming most widespread a few hours before daybreak. VFR conditions will return later Sunday morning after the stratus/fog burns off. Winds should remain AOB 10 kts through the 06Z TAF valid time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.