textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Weekend rain chances, focused primarily southern parts of the area.

- Feels like fall, a stretch of cooler temperatures. Patchy frost possible early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A relatively fast west/northwest upper flow across the Great Lakes over the next several days, with a trough digging over the Pacific Northwest and high pressure anchored over the southern CONUS. The main focus for precipitation in the near term sits along a frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley. This frontal feature will drift northward over the weekend, with precipitation encountering an increasingly more hostile atmosphere over northern Michigan, thanks to a dry, easterly low level flow. Chilly temperatures on the way, as northern stream energy reinforces lower heights over the northern Great Lakes.

Models continue to advertise a southward focus to the weekend rain chances, as the heaviest rain corridor stretches from portions of southern Wisconsin into southern Michigan. There are still some question marks on the northern extent of the precipitation, with models trying to bring at least lighter rain toward the M-72 (or even M-32) corridor. Although the deepest moisture/forcing will likely be south of our area, we will see lighter precipitation edging further north Saturday afternoon and evening, as the aforementioned frontal boundary drifts slowly northward. There will be a tight gradient (thanks to the persistent dry low level air intrusion) between the heavier rain areas to the south and the potential spottier, much lighter rain further north. As of right now, it looks like M-55 will be the dividing line between heavier rains to the south and much lighter rain to the north.

A stretch of cooler temperatures upcoming into next week, as additional northern stream energy helps to suppress upper heights while also dragging cooler H8 temperatures across the northern lakes. These cooler temperatures will also bring about chances of at least patchy frost early next week. Minimal rain chances next week with cool, dry Canadian high pressure in control.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 121 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the issuance period with increasing clouds through the night. Some light showers are still possible across TVC and MBL, but VFR condtions look to prevail with light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.