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KEY MESSAGES

- Messy mix of winter weather continues, bringing chances for mixed precipitation and accumulating snow... See the latest Winter Weather headlines for additional details.

- Cooler, with potential additional rounds of winter weather later this week and again later in the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Moisture has been somewhat low to increase northward into the region overnight, with convection to our south across the southern Great Lakes robbing some of that deeper moisture transport. Even so, another wave of moisture looks to push into the region while colder air filters into northern Michigan near the surface on gusty northeast winds. At the same time, persistent southwest flow aloft has maintained a warm nose overhead, particularly across northern Lower. The combination of this evolving thermal profile has supported the development of a messy wintry mix across parts of northern Lower overnight into this morning. Freezing rain and sleet have been the primary concerns as surface temperatures dip below freezing, though the exact precipitation type has varied depending on how much moisture has worked into the area with higher returns on radar early this morning producing a rain/ sleet mix with ice accumulations observed. This has made road condtions pretty greasy with accumulations on branches noticed here at the office while writing this discussion. Gusty winds through the night into the morning combined with these conditions described above could produce localized tree damage/ power outages. As colder air continues to deepen through the hours, the sleet footprint may expand as the warm nose aloft gradually erodes and the near surface cold layer increases in depth.

Farther north across eastern Upper, colder profiles established more quickly, allowing precipitation to fall mainly as snow. Northeast to east-northeast winds will decrease somewhat this morning before increasing once again this afternoon/evening with gusts around 30 mph possible. Again, combined with icing building on tree limbs and possible power lines across portion of northern Lower, this could lead to isolated power outages and some tree damage where ice accumulations are higher. That said, there remain a few factors that may limit overall impacts. Guidance continues to trend lower on how much moisture actually makes it up here, focusing the heaviest moisture across central and southern Michigan. In addition, as mentioned before, organized convention overnight has disrupted moisture transport into the region. Current thinking still favors an additional 2-5 inches of snow across eastern Upper, with higher amounts possible for northern Chippewa county. Parts of the Tip of the Mitt look to get an additional 1-2 inches with sleet mixing in at times with elsewhere getting an inch or less. Additional ice accumulations for most areas should remain less than one tenth of an inch with localized higher totals possible. Please see the latest Winter Weather Headlines for additional details.

As the surface low tracks toward southeast Michigan later today, colder air should gradually wrap back into northern Michigan from north to south. This will allow precipitation to transition toward mainly snow before tapering off tonight. In the wake of this system, a cooler and more seasonable mid-March airmass settles into the region for the latter half of the week. Thursday looks comparatively quiet as the patter breifly resets, with cooler temperatures and generally quieter conditions expected.

The active pattern does not stay away for long as another fast moving northern stream wave approaches Thursday night into Friday. Thermal profiles with this system appear notably colder compared to the messy mixed precipitation we are currently dealing with, suggesting precipitation will likely fall as snow across the area. While details will continue to be refined, accumulating snow appears likely with this late week wave as it moves through the Great Lakes (probabilities suggest perhaps between 4-8 inches for some areas?).

Looking to the weekend, guidance continues to hint at a more amplified pattern taking shape. Strengthening mid-level troughing and an increasingly pronounced upper-level jet support rapid amplification of the northern stream flow. This setup could support the development of a stronger surface low somewhere near or across the Great Lakes Saturday night in to Sunday. While specifics remain highly uncertain at this range and are subject to change probabilities for impactful accumulating snow increase through the weekend as colder air becomes more firmly established across the region. In addition, stronger cold advection behind the system may help support a lake response heading into early next week. For now, the overall message continues to be cooler temperatures and an active stretch of wintry weather continues.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 702 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

At least IFR CIGs are expected through this morning for areas south of the bridge with LIFR CIGs lingering across many interior areas. MVFR CIGs will likely stay in place for most of the eastern U.P./CIU through today as northern lower Michigan sees CIGs lift to MVFR late this afternoon and evening. A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will continue across the area at varying times today, with additional icing most likely this morning into early afternoon. Steadiest snow across the upper peninsula and far northern lower is expected late this morning into this evening. Otherwise, northeast winds turn to northwest winds by this evening with sustained speeds around 15 kts and gusts to 25-35 kts at times into tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-020>023-025>027-031>033-036-041-042-087-088- 095>099. Ice Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ024- 028>030-034-035. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ086. MARINE...None.