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KEY MESSAGES

- South-southwest flow lake effect ramps up later this afternoon with widespread synoptic snow spreading across northern MI tonight into Tuesday.

- Another system Tuesday night - Wednesday bringing accumulating snow to parts of the area. Additional lake effect snow likely in its wake Wednesday evening - Thursday.

- Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains anchored over the eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. While surface high pressure sits overhead currently, attention is focused upstream on a wave currently making headway into the Dakotas. Attendant ~1008mb sfc low follows suit. This wave expected to be just on the other side of Lake Michigan by 12z Tuesday before crossing northern MI Tuesday morning/midday. Initial south-southwest flow lake effect expected to ramp up this afternoon/evening with synoptic snow arriving area-wide later tonight into Tuesday.

Forecast Details: Initial SSW flow lake effect band beginning to materialize across central/northern Lake Michigan as of early this afternoon. Latest trends still supporting that to intensify and progress north into parts of western/central Mackinac County later this afternoon/early evening with locally intense snow continuing through the evening. This band may scrape parts of the far northwest lower shoreline through this time as well -- far western Benzie/Leelanau counties most susceptible to this. By later tonight into early Tuesday morning, synoptic snow expected to spread across the remainder of the forecast area with lake enhancement continuing near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

This system a rather quick mover with the bulk of steadiest snow in the rear view mirror by midday Tuesday, though some lingering lake aided snow showers linger into the afternoon, especially in west/west-southwest flow favored areas. This should focus the most notable lingering snow showers across the tip of the mitt, perhaps enhanced locally near/around the Little Traverse Bay convergence zone and stretching inland to near I-75.

With respect to accumulation and impacts, the heaviest snow is still expected across parts of western Mackinac County (perhaps stretching into western Chippewa as well) with 3-8 inches and highly localized amounts of 10-12+ inches not out of the question. A general 3-6 inches across Beaver Island and far northwest lower over sections of Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties. 2-4 inches anticipated over the broader Little Traverse Bay region, although some locally higher amounts can't be ruled out. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches across the remainder of northern lower and east of I-75 in the U.P. Hazardous travel will be the result, most notably across parts of western Mackinac/Chippewa counties, Beaver Island, and into far northwest lower where snow-covered roads and low visibility may be exacerbated as times by blowing/drifting snow as a result of increasingly gusty winds of around 30 mph. Worst of these conditions may materialize along US-2 from Brevort and points west where southwest winds may gust locally higher this evening-tonight coinciding with the area of greatest snowfall.

Not much of a break with another system hot on the heels of this one for Tuesday night - Wednesday, discussed in further detail below.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Light winds become S to SSE through afternoon into the overnight, increasing to sustained 10-15kts, esp at MBL/TVC and eventually APN. LLWS around 1500ft, from the SW at 30-35kt; expect this to start mixing down as gusts in the morning with subtle wind shift to S/SSW behind subtle front. VFR cigs slowly decrease to MVFR this afternoon/evening and eventually IFR for most all sites, with worst conditions starting 5-9z for MBL/TVC/CIU and possibly PLN. IFR conditions make it into APN toward 12-15z. Expect lowering visbys with snow/blowing snow tonight as well which could drop categories quicker/more frequently than expected. Possible some fog/low stratus may try to develop overnight, esp at APN, and have hinted at this in TAFs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Period of IFR vsbys expected in -SHSN at all sites between very late tonight and early Tuesday afternoon. This will affect the area from w to e, with the shortest period of IFR conditions expected at APN. Otherwise mostly VFR until the snow arrives, and MVFR cigs after the snow ends. Southerly winds increase and become blustery tonight, veering sw/wsw during the day Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ020-025- 031-086-098. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ095. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.