textproduct: Gaylord

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KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for showers/storms this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Wnw flow aloft will be temporarily displaced this weekend, as part of the western ridge pushes east thru the region, though deamplifying somewhat as it does so. This will turn the upper flow more westerly for a bit, just ahead of a shortwave trof passing late in the weekend. Then its back to wnw flow next week.

Mostly clear skies out there, though with patchy mid/high clouds advancing from WI and western upper MI. Some fog/stratus also popping up, especially in south where surface dew points remain higher than elsewhere. Suppose there is a non-zero of the Lake Huron lake breeze kicking off some showers for the ne lower MI coastal counties. Some recent runs of the HRRR/RAP do this, but most guidance does not. And some patchy fog returns late tonight. But otherwise, high pressure passing north of Superior on Friday will push drier air into the area. Dew points will lower into the 50s in many areas on Friday, which should make convection more difficult, even with a shortwave potentially digging across Lk Huron.

A zone of unsettled wx will remain in the southern lakes/northern OH Valley for the couple of days. As the surface high heads downstream Saturday, and low pressure evolves in the northern plains/southern Canada, warmth and moisture will attempt to work north. A decent chance for showers and storms should result for late Saturday into Sunday. Surface cold front goes thru Sunday, and northerly flow and cooler/drier air push in Sunday night thru Monday night. Wnw flow aloft becomes a bit more energetic after that, with shower chances resuming Tuesday. Temps area a little cooler, especially Sunday and beyond, but overall pretty yummy late-summer stuff.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 633 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Only dealing with fog at MBL this morning, though it is occasionally VLIFR there. Quick improvement this morning, and a pleasant VFR day and evening otherwise, with light winds. MBL likely to return to some fog late tonight, uncertain whether anyone else will.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.

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