textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasingly hot and humid much of next week, hottest period being Tuesday through Thursday with heat indices 95+ degrees.

- First chance for showers and storms Sunday night into Monday, then periodic thunderstorm chances mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Quiet and uneventful weather (outside of any brief fog this morning) through the rest of this weekend. High pressure remains in control through the day today, although begins to slowly propagate eastward. Ridging builds across the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Monday, with rising heights across Michigan and the beginning of our hotter and more humid stretch of weather. Heights remain abnormally high across the Great Lakes region through the end of the week, with the hottest conditions likely Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures rise well into the 90s, upper 90s possible, especially across northeast lower Michigan, from Saginaw Bay and generally east of I-75. Still questions on how muddy the waters become with convection upstream as perturbations within the southwest flow aloft, whether convectively induced or synoptically generated, try to impinge on northern Michigan mid to late week. Nevertheless, a hot and humid stretch of weather is expected, with wet bulb global temperatures in the high to extreme range, meaning the body will struggle to cool itself. Thus, heat exhaustion will be possible for anyone exerting themselves outdoors for extended periods of time. Future Extreme Heat Watches/Heat Advisories probable.

Warm, moist advection late Sunday night into Monday will result in the first round of showers and storms as dewpoints surge into the mid-upper 60s. On the leading edge of the elevated instability across northern MI, there is a low chance for a few robust thunderstorms given the increased flow aloft. Consequently, SPC clips GTB and points southwest with a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, hail the main concern given the elevated nature of the storms. Scattered rain chances remain through Monday.

For the rest of the week, southwest flow aloft remains elevated overtop of a moist and unstable airmass. The question becomes will the forcing align with the deep layer shear and instability to materialize a severe threat. Best potential for all those ingredients, or for upstream convection to move into northern Michigan, will be mid to late week as perturbation move northeast within the flow across the northern parts of the upper ridge. That being said, this is a volatile setup this far out with plenty of changes expected. Perhaps a little more zonal late week into next weekend, although still warm and active.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Any fog/mist and low clouds will mix out quickly early this morning, leaving behind VFR conditions under some relative high based cumulus. Increasing high clouds this evening gives way to a mid level cloud deck across western taf location early Monday morning. May see a few showers and storms accompany this mid cloud deck, although uncertainty in both coverage and organization remains high. Light winds today with local lake breeze development this afternoon. Light winds for most tonight, although southeast winds do become a bit gusty by early Monday morning at KTVC and KMBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.