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KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures continue

- Dry early week, shower and storm chances return midweek

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

An upper low north of Lake Superior will slide south/east tonight, while a surface low moves through the northern Ohio Valley. Northern Michigan sits squarely between these features, with largely deep layer dry air in place across much of the area. The northern fringe of the precipitation area from the system to our south may brush far southern parts of our area (M-55 southward) but any precipitation amounts would be quite light as the best forcing and deepest moisture remain well south of our area. Otherwise, any lingering diurnal showers will dissipate early this evening with most of northern Michigan dry overnight - outside of that aforementioned shower chance south of M-55. A little milder than last night due to more clouds, but some interior parts of northeast lower into eastern upper will still drop into the 40s, with 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog also possible. Few sensible weather concerns Monday and Tuesday with low amplitude ridging over the Great Lakes. Light winds, afternoon lake breezes and overall mild temperatures. Unsettled weather and increasing shower and storm chances by midweek, as shortwave energy over western Canada drops south/east into the Great Lakes, helping to once again carve out the upper trough across our area (a recurring theme in recent weeks). This unsettled weather will likely linger through at least Thursday, with cool air aloft and shower/storm chances. Quieter weather and drier conditions return by Friday/Saturday with high pressure gradually building into the Great Lakes. Temperatures generally remain below normal through much of this week.

Much warmer weather is poised to return for the end of June into the first part of July as a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest, inducing amplified ridging over the central/eastern parts of the CONUS. This will bring much warmer temperatures to the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

May see some fog/mist/stratus develop toward sunrise at KCIU, KMBL, and KPLN (greatest confidence at KCIU). Otherwise, VFR conditions under some passing high level clouds expected across the remainder of the taf locations this morning. Any fog/mist and low clouds mix out quickly after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under just a few elevated based cumulus and passing high clouds. Light winds become a bit gusty out of the northwest today, becoming light again this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.