textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temps Wed into the weekend. May threaten a few record highs Wed.

- Good rain chances Wed night-Thu.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

An upper ridge extends from the SE states into the southern/ central Lakes. Multiple shortwaves are lifting into this ridge, including waves in western MN and eastern KS. These are contributing to the broad area of clouds and sporadic (mostly light) precip to our w, trying to work east. 1034mb surface high pressure is just north of Georgian Bay, and the low levels in our neck of the north woods are on the dry side. Precip is eroding somewhat as it works east, though not completely; we've had a few sprinkles here at APX proper since 11 pm.

Another upstream area of somewhat better light precip is passing between MQT and GRB. This should also weaken as it moves east, but some sprinkles and perhaps -SHRA are possible early this morning, especially in the broader Straits area. Another uptick in warm/moist advection could produce a slight chance for afternoon/evening showers, especially in eastern upper MI. Otherwise, more clouds than sun across northern MI today, with highs from the mid 40s at ANJ to pushing 60f at MBL.

Upper flow in the Conus tends to deamplify this week. We are initially seeing wsw flow aloft, but that becomes more zonal later on. Return flow will amp up later on Wednesday, as high pressure moves east, and ahead of a cold front advancing into MN. With moisture return initially limited, Wednesday looks a potentially rather warm day (for late October). Should be a partly to mostly sunny day, with highs from the low-mid 60s north, to near 70f in most on northern lower MI. We could flirt with some record highs, in particular at our more northerly climate sites (Soo/PLN/GLR).

A narrow zone of better moisture return will finally accompany the surface cold front across northern MI Wed night into Thu. Showers are likely to widespread in nw lower and eastern upper MI late Wed night, and perhaps a rumble of thunder is possible, especially west of TVC. Precip chances do dwindle somewhat with eastern extent late Wed night into Thu. Shower chances exit by Thu evening. Still a potentially mild/warm day Thu, especially in ne lower MI (mid 60s APN-HTL, near 70f near Saginaw Bay).

After this, trailing high pressure marches from the lee of the Canadian Rockies to eventually the Great Lakes and points east. So quieter and still mild wx to end the weak. We will try to get some return flow this weekend trailing the high, but it will be limited/slow initially, and some surface ridging will still be hanging on in the northern lakes. So pops are limited to slight chance in western areas for Saturday and trick-or-treating activities into the evening. Chances for rain looks somewhat higher Sunday, and for Monday night-Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

MVFR cigs possible at CIU part of today, otherwise VFR.

High pressure passing north of Lk Huron will continue east. Plenty of cigs at or above 5k ft, with a few embedded sprinkles and weak showers near PLN/CIU. Cigs should lower a bit, but more so at CIU, where MVFR cigs are possible for part of the afternoon. Otherwise we remain VFR. Winds become more se-erly with time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.