textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and less humid today with seasonable temperatures.

- Scattered light rain shower potential later tonight.

- Dry most of Thursday and Friday. Potential for another round of rain Friday night into this weekend, with best chances for any heavier rain increasing the farther south one goes... with less rain coverage the farther north one goes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Vertically stacked surface low over James Bay to continue its north and east motion, forcing a surface cold front through the region as expansive 1024mb surface high pressure intrudes hot on its heels. Meanwhile, expansive thermal ridge over the southeastern CONUS will continue its dominance in those parts, leading to the aforementioned cold front to largely stall out as a stationary front roughly along the I-80 corridor between Omaha and Cleveland. As such, deepest moisture to be suppressed well to our south through Friday as pseudo- zonal flow around the ridge leads to some serious rainfall amounts to our south. Weak northern stream perturbation over the northern Rockies zips east along the US-Canada border, arriving quite moisture starved tonight into early Thursday. Surface high pressure to return through the day Thursday, but short lived.

Wave with tropical Pacific origins to surge into the desert SW today (likely bringing a serious flooding threat to Arizona and much of the Four Corners region). It will then eject into the northern Plains by Friday, evolving into a convectively charged wave rich with deep, Pacific moisture as it moves through the Midwest toward the Great Lakes region. WNW flow regime over the northern CONUS looks to force this wave south as it progresses toward the Great Lakes, likely leaving the highest moisture concentrations (and thus, highest probs of heavy rain, and perhaps even rain in general) just south of northern Michigan... but may nose far enough north to lead to some rains across the bottom rows of counties in the CWA.

Details:

Not a lot to speak of during the day today as drier air settles in with seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s amid peeks of afternoon sun. Clouds increase again tonight as the upper level northern stream wave makes a pass through the region. Better moisture to our west should allow showers to maintain themselves into the northwest lower shores of Lake Michigan... but as it moves into a more hostile environment lacking moisture and instability, anticipation is that shower intensity and coverage decreases considerably as activity progresses eastward. Rainfall amounts will likely struggle to eclipse 0.10" anyways, so little to no impacts anticipated. Drier weather to prevail Thursday and Friday with seasonable temperatures in the 60s-70s, lows in the 40s-50s Thursday night.

Aforementioned Pacific wave to make its presence known later Friday into Friday night / Saturday as upstream rain and thunderstorms approach. Moisture profiles are strongly signaling heavy rainfall potential in any convective elements... but will have to see if theta-e advection is strong enough to draw the aforementioned stationary front northward to provide better forcing for that to happen here. Current guidance is laying down an impressive stripe of rain (to the order of 2-5"+ of rain) with this wave from Minnesota / Iowa, ESE into Wisconsin / Illinois, and lands more downstate in Michigan as opposed to up here. Residual moisture from this wave could spark some showers at times, but current thinking is the heaviest rainfall across the region would likely hold south of M-72. This is further echoed by latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks... during the Tuesday afternoon forecast package, all of northern lower was in a Slight Risk (2/4) and eastern upper in Marginal (1/4). Latest outlook suppresses the Slight Risk south of I-96, and the Marginal Risk cuts off roughly along M-32... signaling high confidence in this southern turn. Regardless, rain chances to creep back into the picture Friday night and again Saturday... but tentative thinking is that perhaps we sneak out a drier weekend as opposed to a soggy one, especially the farther north one goes. More details to come.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 554 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Any fog/mist and stratus will quicky burn off early this morning, leaving behind VFR conditions today under some passing high level clouds and some high based cumulus. VFR conditions expected to continue tonight under some increasing mid and upper level clouds. May see a few non-impactful showers fall out of this mid level cloud deck late tonight. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.