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KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild weather continues today, with slow improvement through the week for areas experiencing localized flooding near rivers, lakes, and poor drainage areas.

- Mild to warm late week with rain and embedded thunder possible Friday and Friday night.

- Drier and closer to seasonable this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper level ridging will continue to move eastward through the day today, impinging across the Upper Midwest with height rises across northern MI by this evening. Sfc high pressure builds down across N MI as well, resulting in light winds and lake breeze and marine influence closer to the coasts. Subtle east flow and high pressure building in from the north likely results in slight cooler high temps, but still a very mild and pleasant afternoon anticipated.

By Thursday, ridge aloft builds right over northern Michigan and temperatures respond accordingly. Expect values to soar well into the 70s by the afternoon hours. The one caveat to this forecast will be if a few showers/storms are able to fire off within a weakly unstable environment. Unclear at this time as ridging aloft will promote subsidence and a warm layer above the boundary layer. Suppose lake breeze convergence might try to overcome this but as of now will lean towards a suppression of most activity. Waters will continue to recede through the week, resulting in a slow improvement to the localized flooding across some rivers, lakes, and poor drainage areas (lakes will likely take longer to respond which we are observing and conceptually makes sense).

Large upper low plunges across the western CONUS mid this week, moving eastward with time. This feature will spin up a potent sfc low pressure system across the N Plains and S Canada, with attendant boundary and rich layer moisture (PWs >1.0", >200% of normal) poised to impact northern MI Friday and Friday night. Expect a steady swath of rain and the potential for embedded thunder later Friday, with the potential for ~0.50" of rain. Convectively enhanced rainfall would lead to locally higher amounts. This rain will likely be forced or enhanced to some degree by the progged short wave on the southeast periphery of the parent upper low.

Parent upper low across the Northern Plains and adjacent southern Canada will spin away this weekend thanks to a stagnant upper level pattern across Canada. Meanwhile, lift from the shortwave on the southern periphery of the main upper low will swing on through early on Saturday, ending the precipitation threat by the morning hours for most. Dry conditions remain into Sunday and then we watch the next rain maker sometime early next week with a vigorous trough ejecting out of the Central Plains and into the Great Lakes region.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1223 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

River levels across the board continue to decrease, albeit lakes are still elevated and causing issues. Mullet lake leveled out around 596.1 ft, current level ~596.05 ft, and will take along time to fully go back to normal. There continues to be reports and footage of flooded homes along Black Lake, with ice damage as well. Thus, localized flooding near some rivers, lakes, and poor drainages continues. Hydrographs continue to steadily decrease across our area, with the Manistee River near Sherman now in minor flood stage.

Improvement should continue through much of the rest of this week with dry conditions through Thursday. The next rain maker will move in during the day on Friday for most, with moderate rain and embedded convection possible across northern MI. Current guidance suggests a low to medium-ish (~20 to 50%) chance for >0.50" through Friday night. Convectively enhanced precipitation will lead to locally higher amounts. HEFS guidance does show subtle river rises/responses due to this rainfall, but nothing alarming at this time. That being said, the sensitive, poor drainage areas with lingering water/flooding will need to be watched, especially with soil moisture still ~40-60% (although slowly trying to dry) across portions of northern lower Michigan.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

High pressure will maintain tranquil weather conditions throughout the period. Largely clear skies prevail, aside from perhaps some localized fog tonight. Light and variable winds the rest of tonight carry into Wednesday... with sub-10kt northerly flow building late in the morning. Lake breezes will be active once again by Wednesday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.