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KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of locally dense fog linger early this morning.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week. Heat indices rise into the 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Anomalous moisture continues to evacuate to the south, leaving a general northwest flow aloft in its wake tonight. Residual low-level moisture from recent rains, combined with efficient nighttime radiational cooling, will likely result in areas of early morning dense fog. Otherwise, expect plenty of diurnal cumulus today with some vertical growth. Subsidence near the 700mb level should aggressively cap most of these cumulus clouds; however, a few select areas may see a shower or two as the cap erodes somewhat during the daytime hours. Low-level convergence near the lake breeze may also trigger a few showers. Consequently, a 15% PoP has been included across portions of Northeast Lower and Eastern Upper Michigan. Either way, any showers should not be significantly impactful. Expect a relatively pleasant day, featuring high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with noticeably less humidity compared to Thursday.

Expansive ridging aloft will build from the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West into the central CONUS, with anomalous heights bulging into northern Michigan this weekend. Consequently, surface high pressure will remain firmly in control. Expect mostly dry conditions, although there may be a few showers that clip the E UP later on Sunday. Temperatures steadily warm from the low to mid-80s on Saturday into the mid and upper 80s by Sunday.

The most impressive high pressure bulge for northern Michigan will be early next week as the ~596 decameter height contour moves over the area. Temperatures will climb accordingly, peaking in the upper 80s and 90s across the region (hottest spots across northeast Lower due to downsloping). With dewpoints pooling in the 60s, heat indices will push into the 90s for most areas. Precipitation chances remain minimal during this timeframe given the formidable subsidence under the upper high.

Climate Note: Record highs over the next several days and into next week at most of our climate sites are well into the 100sincluding an impressive 107F at Houghton Lake (KHTL) on July 13, 1936. We can thank the reforestation of northern Michigan since the logging era for helping moderate our modern temperature extremes.

By mid-to-late next week, the center of the anomalous high pressure is forecast to retrograde back toward the Intermountain West. This shift will leave the door open for shortwave energy to ride the northeastern periphery of the ridge via northwest flow aloft. All in all, expect slightly cooler temperatures late in the week, along with the potential for an uptick in precipitation chances, though forecast confidence regarding any sort of coverage/timing remains low at this range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1056 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Patchy FG/BR development is possible across parts of northern Michigan later tonight -- perhaps most likely at MBL -- as mostly clear skies and calm winds promote efficient radiational cooling over the next several hours. Any FG/BR development is expected to dissipate shortly after sunrise Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated at northern Michigan TAF sites Friday into Friday night with light north-component winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321.