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KEY MESSAGES

-Brief period of light rain across Eastern Upper this evening.

-Cold temperatures build after Wednesday with highs around 40.

-Isolated mixed precipitation chances towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Northern stream midlevel flow remains situated over the Great Lakes today with a moderate jet core of over 110 knots. An embedded shortwave currently positioned north of Lake Superior continues to dig this afternoon and make its way across the U.S./Canadian border this afternoon with enough energy to extend some moisture into the northern parts of the CWA this evening. Otherwise, conditions remain mostly cloudy and mild today and Tuesday.

Another trough develops over the upper Midwest early Wednesday morning and deepens over the northeastern U.S. by the end of the work week. Surface low pressure associated with the trough will dig across the Ohio Valley while deepening. Synoptic-driven precipitation will commence this Wednesday followed by lake effect around the Thursday/Friday timeframe. The most noticeable weather change will be the temperature change as cold cP air becomes drawn into the northwoods. Current highs in the 40s and 50s will be replaced by upper 30s to low 40s. Long-range guidance depicts more stable conditions this weekend as upstream ridging begins to build, returning warmer temperatures along with midlevel subsidence as we head into late November.

Forecast Details:

Today and Tuesday: Pretty benign conditions continue today as cloud cover slowly deteriorates and stable air builds from the southwest. Current radar depicts some light showers pivoting across Ontario which are attempting to stretch into the eastern Upper Peninsula. Model soundings show saturated profiles of low to moderate column depth (less than 2000ft) which could cause one or two locations to observe a trace of rainfall this evening, but most areas are expected to remain dry. Surface high pressure to our southwest will continue to briefly dominate the region as Southwest winds overnight keep lows in the 40s before turning WNW this Tuesday. Expect widespread highs in the 50s Tuesday with breezy winds gusting to the 20s.

Wednesday and Thursday: The aforementioned cyclone development will be positioned over Central Indian this Wednesday. Unorganized stratiform rainfall will be observed this Wednesday with amounts of a tenth inch or less. Some snow gets introduced into the forecast overnight Wednesday as the surface cyclone progresses southeast and cold air begins to be drawn in from the north. Precipitation type and coverage switches to banded lake effect, impacting areas typically affected by northerly flow. Profiles are still too warm to produce effective snow growth as the majority of saturation temperatures remain above -10 Celsius. With warm soil temperatures and highs remaining above freezing this Thursday, isolated areas that could see accumulations under bands are likely to see only a tenth or so of accumulations.

Friday through Sunday Outlook: Longwave midlevel troughing quickly gets replaced by ridging this weekend. Northern stream flow with cold cP air will become cut off to the north once again as highs progressively increase this weekend, reaching the 50s by Sunday. Subsidence aloft will also support surface high pressure to build this weekend. Little to no precipitation is expected through the remainder of the forecast period as long-range ensembles favor mild conditions as we head into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1006 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions early this morning as mid level clouds continue to depart. Next round of low level moisture spreads across eastern upper Michigan during the morning, likely bringing MVFR to lower end VFR conditions at KCIU through the remainder of today. VFR conditions expected elsewhere, with just some increasing mid level clouds and higher based cumulus late in the day at KPLN and KAPN. VFR conditions this evening across the area. Light winds early become a touch gusty out of the northwest heading through today. Light winds return this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321- 322.