textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, set to spread slowly southeast across our area tonight through Wednesday night. Isolated pockets of some appreciable rainfall amounts are possible.

- Periodic shower chances return for the weekend into early next week.

- Temperatures will run well within the range of what is considered normal heading into the second week of August.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Main feature of short term interest is broad mid/upper level troughing making steady east progress across the northern Plains and southern Canada. Height falls just beginning across northern Michigan, with a cold front on the leading edge of these height falls...extending from eastern Lake Superior southwest across central Wisconsin and Iowa. Respectable deep layer moisture surge along and immediately ahead of this front, as evident by tongue of precipitable water values in excess of 1.50 inches into eastern Wisconsin and central Upper Michigan. Complete detachment of better forcing, both to the north and south, has greatly limited shower/storm development across the western Great Lakes. A bit of a warm one otherwise, with pre-frontal warm air advection and still plenty of sunshine helping drive temperatures up into the 80s across a good portion of the Northwoods.

Troughing and attendant cold front will continue to make slow progress into and across our area tonight through Wednesday night, kicking off a few rounds of showers and storms in the process. Now rather excellent agreement that broad troughing will dominate our weather right into the early stages of next week, keeping any real heat suppressed well to our southwest and bringing periodic chances for additional showers with any passing embedded waves.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower and storm evolution through early Thursday. Focus shifts to temperature trends and addressing additional chances for wet weather for the remainder of the period.

Details:

Upstream front will continue to work slowly across the region tonight into early Thursday, perhaps even stalling at times as weak waves (convectively agitated?) work northeast along it. Expect shower coverage to increase and become a bit more organized tonight into Wednesday as overhead moisture profiles increase and become increasingly coupled with corridor of enhanced right entrance region upper jet dynamics. Some embedded storms are expected given breadth of forcing and moisture, but overall limited cape should significantly throttle back on any severe potential. Focus for most widespread showers does spread southeast with time, with the target area for better rain amounts by Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday centering across northeast lower Michigan...and especially down near Saginaw Bay. Much of the area south of the big bridge remains under Marginal Risk Wording for excessive rains Wednesday into Wednesday night, but trends do support any high end rain totals remaining isolated at best...with much better heavy rain potential remaining off to our southwest. Latest trends are for a bit more progression to the front on Thursday, suggesting most of the active weather exiting off to our southeast by Thursday afternoon.

Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance support a bit more aggressive troughing dominating our weather as we head into the weekend and early next week. While hard to offer any real specifics, any passing waves in west/northwest flow aloft may kick off some showers at times (but currently not seeing any evidence for prolonged periods of wet weather). If some more of the aggressive trough digging scenarios are realized, definitely could see a bit cooler temperatures than what is currently advertised in our forecast. Plenty of time of course for future adjustments to the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon as most terminals... some high end MVFR ceilings may spread into KCIU after 21Z. Rain chances expected to increase mainly after midnight from west to east across northern Michigan. Eventually anticipating IFR conditions to develop with lowering ceiling heights in precipitation.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ024-095. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348- 349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.