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KEY MESSAGES

-Lingering scattered showers continue today. Watching for localized flooding today.

-Well above normal warmth builds this Sunday and Monday.

-Mixed precipitation chances build midweek next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel longwave troughing currently extending across Canada's southern provinces, with its axis expanding through the Dakotas, continues to support active weather across the Great Lakes region. A surface cold front is positioned over Lake Michigan this morning as it sweeps eastward. An overall drying trend is expected today, but lingering low-lying moisture and enough lift will continue showers, including a potential storm or two before subsidence finally dries atmospheric profiles.

The previously mentioned trough axis makes its way to the east coast this Sunday, leaving behind a zonal flow setup across the Great Lakes region. This pattern will support cold cP air remaining locked to the north this Sunday and Monday, with surface temperatures building well above normal for early to mid-March. The remainder of the forecast period stay's active as guidance depicts waves of energy tracking through the region, delivering rounds of precipitation. Cold air mixing with southerly warm influences will support mixed precipitation at times through the midweek, including the potential of freezing rain.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Lingering scattered showers continue today. Watching for localized flooding today... Current radar displays the main line of showers tied to the cold tracking across the CWA with most moisture already departing the region after 12Z. Additional moisture remains minimal, with lingering low-level saturation delivering only a trace or so for most areas and localized amounts up to a tenth. The only remaining concern in terms of impactful weather is ongoing localized flooding through tonight. Observed rainfall on top of rapidly melting snow combined with poor infiltration rates will keep localized ponding/flooding today. Several river gauges have already observed an upward trend in stream heights this morning. The RFC has forecasted even a few points to reach action stage, including the Manistee River near Sherman potentially reaching it's minor flooding stage tonight.

-Well above normal warmth builds this Sunday and Monday... The previously mentioned zonal flow will limit precipitation chances across the CWA. Cold air locked to the north will allow temperatures to build well above normal across the Great Lakes region. Expect widespread highs in the 50s across northern lower this Sunday while eastern upper remains in the mid 40s. Monday will be the warmest day through the entire forecast period. Southerly flow WAA pushes highs into the low to mid 60s across northern lower, with even the potential for a few typically warmer locations across the CWA to reach the 70s aided by down sloping effects.

-Mixed precipitation chances build midweek next week... A midlevel synoptic-scale low-pressure system currently centered over the Baja California region will begin to break down into a wave and track across the Great Lakes region around the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. A surface disturbance will develop and track moisture through the Mississippi Valley into the Saint Lawrence Seaway area. Highest probabilities of QPF remain between 0.25" to 0.50" for the Northern Michigan area. As this boundary progresses eastward, cold Canadian air will collide with a warmer Pacific southerly influence. As a result, guidance is beginning to favor chances of rain at the beginning of the event eventually switching to snow, with a window of mixed precipitation, including the potential of freezing rain. It is still too early to forecast icing potential and impacts overall, but we will continue to monitor this setup as we head into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1154 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Periods of showers will continue into Saturday morning. Embedded thunderstorms are possible overnight into early Sat morning. Widespread low clouds/vsbys into the morning as well. VLIFR to IFR conditions most common into Sat morning, with some slow improvement beginning in the afternoon, but more substantial in the evening. Ongoing se to s winds become sw to w and gusty Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.