textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly night tonight...record lows possible?

- Dry with low afternoon RHs Thursday

- Rain/storm chances at times this weekend into early next week...could start as early as Thursday night/Friday? But more likely Friday night and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Northwest flow remains intact across the Midwest...with negatively tilted ridge axis from the PacNW into TX...and longwave trough axis stretching from Hudson Bay to New England. 100+kt jet stretches from southern Manitoba to the Mid-Atlantic...and then up along into Maine on the downstream side of the trough axis. Atmosphere is quite perturbed along/north of the jet axis, from the Canadian Prairie Provinces down into the Great Lakes; notably, a swirly dropping toward Lake Superior as of 12z and departing PV maxima over Ontario/Quebec. Dry air settling into the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley attm with dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 40s overnight last night; best absolute moisture (pwats greater than 1.5in) across the Gulf Coast up into New England along/ahead of the aforementioned trough axis and attendant cold front stretching from an occluded low over Quebec down along the Appalachian Mountains and into the southern Plains. Much cooler air mass beneath the trough as well...850mb temps as cold as 4C northeast of Georgian Bay, and 8C isotherm stretching from MN to the Lower Great Lakes. Lows generally bottoming out in the lower to middle 50s for a change last night, though. Northwest flow pressure gradient remains somewhat tight across the area, between aforementioned 993mb occluded low over Quebec and 1021mb surface high over the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. A little smoke well aloft drifting overhead, as evidenced by visible satellite this morning, though not nearly as thick or impactful as previous days.

High pressure will continue to build in into tonight; expect a cool and quiet night as winds diminish. Upper level pattern flattens out upstream Thursday, with a bit more influence of return flow to come into play here, and temps warming back up to more seasonable levels. May need to watch out for some warm advection activity Thursday night into Friday as a surface low tries to take shape across central Canada. Another lobe of energy sweeps through on Saturday...with ridging building over the western US ahead of troughing digging off British Columbia. Expecting height rises to spread eastward overall Sunday into Monday, with broad ridge axis centered to our west...but do have concerns for activity to form along the perimeter of the ridge at times. Increasing uncertainty in the forecast for Tuesday and beyond...depending on the strength/position of PV maxima tracking over the ridge axis...as well as position/strength of upper troughing progged to hang out over eastern Canada/northeastern US going into midweek, which will play a role in temperatures for next week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lows tonight... Dewpoints this afternoon are already drying out quite a bit, generally into the lower 40s by 17z (with a couple spots diving down to 39F or lower (looking at you, APN, PZQ))...which is perhaps a bit more aggressive than guidance had suggested, and lends a concern for lows tonight. (Think this will also lend to a drier/less humid day on Thursday as well, and have gone much more aggressive with drying out dewpoints then, too.) Have thusly gone more aggressive with cooling temps tonight, given a good radiational cooling setup overall, with lows generally in the lower 40s across the interior and warmer at the coasts; the typical interior cold spots (e.g., AuSable River valley) should drop close to 40, and would not be surprised to see a few sites come in with upper 30s tonight in those locales. The trick right now is how much lingering low-level moisture from recent rains will impact the lows tonight...and think the best chance of staying warmer (perhaps with some patchy fog?) will be NW Lower and the Leelanau Peninsula where they did have a couple inches of rain the other night (think this is part of what is driving slightly better diurnal cu coverage today over the western half of the Mitten). Not impossible some record low temperatures could be in jeopardy tonight...with most record lows this time of the year in the lower 40s (except for our coldest locales). Records at our primary historical weather sites are as follows:

Record Low vs. current forecast.... Gaylord: 42 (1981) vs 41 Sault Ste. Marie: 39 (1981) vs 45 Houghton Lake: 35 (1947) vs 46 Traverse City: 42 (1985) vs 51 Alpena: 41 (1923) vs 45 Pellston: 35 (1985) vs 46

RHS Thursday...Expect antecedent low-level dry air mass to stick around, despite some increase in moisture with return flow across the Yoop Thursday...and with temperatures likely warming well into the 70s vs today's chilly day...think we will end up with some areas of near- critical to critical minimum RHs Thursday afternoon (25 percent or lower). Best shot of this is again northeast lower with prevailing westerly flow, where things are more likely to warm/dry a little more bullishly with downsloping. Don't think winds will be quite as much of a concern Thursday but could gust up around 15-25kts up around the Tip of the Mitt. Have some concerns we could remain on the drier side going into Friday as well, especially if the better moisture remains to our north...but not as confident in how this will play out.

Precip chances thru the period... Low chance for some activity, especially across the EUP Thursday afternoon with the lake breeze and some return flow in play. Think we may need to keep an eye on warm advection precip that may/may not develop upstream on the nose of warmer air sneaking in...and could end up with some lingering showers/storms(?) into the day on Friday, which could lower temperatures more than expected. On the flipside...antecedent dry air mass in place will have something to say about precip chances, which could certainly minimize any activity that does try to move in here. More robust chance for showers/storms will come Friday night into Saturday ahead of a PV max digging down from central Canada. Think there is potential Friday night for any activity across Ontario to either scrape our northern zones...or perhaps try to drop in on us if a convective complex is able to develop. Signals currently point toward the shortwave trough becoming negatively tilted to our north, which does hint at potential for more robust convection to develop up there. Appears the boundary associated with this system will wash out as it drapes into the Upper Great Lakes Saturday (current focus is across the Yoop/Tip of the Mitt), but will need to keep an eye out for convection to continue/redevelop during the day (again, especially north, per current signals)...and could linger into Saturday night.

Think we could remain quite active from Sunday night right on into the first part of the week. Primary concern in my mind is the broad ridge axis to our west/northwest, setting up the potential for convective complexes to ride the perimeter of the ridge over toward the Great Lakes through the period. Quite a bit of uncertainty attm in the evolution of this (including strength of any perturbations tracking along the ridge axis into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes), and lend to uncertainty in how the pattern evolves going into the mid and latter portions of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR. Light winds tonight, as high pressure approaches. Dry air will limit cloud potential. A westerly breeze develops Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.