textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chances for isolated showers with a storm or two today

- A break in precipitation with quiet weather, then storm chances return mid week

- Below normal temperatures linger through next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Large scale broad upper troughing continues to reach across most of the central and northern CONUS this morning. Little to no change has occurred with moisture amounts through the column, and this will continue into today. Little to no larger scale forcing features exist below 10kft, so lake breezes will form today as mixing heights rise to around 6kft. Due to the upper level troughing, cooler air above will result in higher low level lapse rates. A couple hundred j/kg of instability will exist this afternoon. Low shear and some instability in the lower levels will lead to isolated pulse type convection this afternoon (especailly along lake breeze boundaries). Lower ELs will keep storms capped, resulting in low to almost no chances for severe threats from the handful of storms that are able to form today. Slightly more instability exists over eastern upper, which would allow for better chances for isolated showers/storms to pulse along the lake breeze boundary that establishes this afternoon. Small hail could be likely with strongest storms, however very low chances for severe threats remain north of the bridge.

The upper closed low which has been anchored over central CAN for the last several days will finally advance southeast towards northern MI later today. At the same time, a surface cyclone will move northeast up the Ohio River Valley towards southern MI. Northern MI will likely remain in the "dry" slot, and receive no additional precip from these features as they continue eastward later today into tonight.

Slightly drier air in the lower levels settles in under light north winds for Monday and Tuesday. Sunny skies, below normal temperatures and light winds will be seen these days.

The next system approaches early Wednesday, and will return scattered shower and storm chances to the region. A Pacific airmass will accompany this system, resulting in little temperature change, and lower chances for wide spread heavy rains. Surface high pressure will settle in for the later half of the work week, keeping the weather fairly quiet and mild.

Confidence continues to increase in normal to above normal temperatures returning near the end of the month, as a -PNA pattern establishes over the CONUS. This would return deep gulf moisture (storm chances) as well as temperatures warming back into the 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 641 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

LIFR fog at MBL this morning, will burn off mid-morning. Otherwise VFR, with a cu field midday and this afternoon. A stray shower is possible this afternoon and evening, but not worth including in any TAF just yet. Clouds will increase from the south later today/tonight, and fog is much less likely tonight. Light winds, with onshore breezes this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.