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KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm through Monday

- Passing front brings rain chances Monday night/Tuesday and the return to cooler weather to end the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Temperatures more reminiscent of late summer across the Northwoods early this afternoon, driven by gusty south winds and plenty of sunshine. Current readings spiking up into the 70s for most... running a good 10 or more degrees above specific normal values for today's date. Apex of upper level ridge responsible for the above continues to mature...part of a larger long-wave amplification process driven by deepening western NOAM centered troughing and post- tropical storm "Isaias" rotating up into the Tennessee River Valley.

Overhead ridging will remain in control through Monday, forcing a quick northeast deflection of the remains of "Isaias" tonight into Sunday through the lower Ohio Valley and up into the mid-Atlantic States. Northern extent of ridge axis does look to gradually break down heading through the middle of the week as north-displaced northern stream flow becomes a bit more aggressive across southern Canada.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing any shower potential through the period.

Details:

Confidence continues to increase that deepest moisture plume and attendant rains with Isaias will remain off to our southeast tonight into Sunday...with northern lower Michigan likely just seeing some increasing high and mid level clouds. Again, biggest story remains the unseasonably mild conditions into Monday. Those clouds and a bit less agressive low level mechanical mixing should keep temperatures on Sunday just a smidge cooler than those observed today, but still looking at widespread highs in the lower to middle 70s. Weak cold front does begin to drop south into the northern reaches of our footprint on Monday, keeping much of northern lower in the warm sector through the day. Thermal progs easily support highs well up into the 70s for most south of the big bridge Monday. Wouldn't be terribly surprised if someone down near Saginaw Bay makes a run at 80. More clouds and increasing chances for showers across eastern upper will keep readings up that way in the 60s (still well above normal).

Front will work slowly south across the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, with its southern descent perhaps slowed further by weak low pressure riding east along it. Shower coverage looks to increase along and just behind this front with that passing low, with moisture profiles perhaps helped along by remnant tropical moisture from what is now tropical storm Rachel off the coast of Baja California (Rachel is expected to race northeast, making landfall in the northern part of that Mexico state later tonight). High end rain chances are warranted by later Monday night into early Tuesday. Early indications most areas will receive a quarter inch or less of much needed rains. However, given the potential for that enhanced tropical moisture plume to cross overhead, could easily see some locally higher totals by later Tuesday morning.

Front looks to clear our area to the south on Tuesday, with post- frontal north winds bringing temperatures back to near normal levels in the 50s and lower 60s. Questions abound to what happens for the rest of the week, with uncertainty specifically centered on just how aggressive late week troughing becomes across the Great Lakes. Deterministic guidance has most definitely diverged on this potential, with even vast differences within the intra-model ensemble suite themselves. While it still appears temperatures should trend cooler from current conditions, just how cold they become and any additional shower chances will be entirely predicated on exactly how the long-wave pattern unfolds. Unfortunately, that is an exceedingly low confidence portion of the forecast at this time. Of course, still plenty of time to work out those details in the coming days. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR, but with LLWS. High clouds have expanded northward into parts of northern lower MI. That will be with us thru the forecast...but that's it as far as clouds. Too much of a breeze for any fog tonight. Though southerly surface winds have decreased somewhat at dusk, winds off the deck remain strong, and LLWS will persist tonight into much of Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.