textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Ongoing frost/freeze concerns continue tonight.

-Showers spread Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

-Seasonably warm temperatures build with rounds of showers and storms this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Midlevel longwave troughing with a closed low-pressure system centered over Southern Hudson Bay continues to draw cool cP air into the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, seasonably cool temperatures with high pressure will continue cool and quiet weather today as highs are expected to remain in the upper 40s to low 50s. An embedded midlevel height disturbance lee of the Rockies will develop a surface clipper and move into the upper Midwest this Tuesday. Showers with a few embedded storms will persist into Wednesday before upstream subsidence extinguishes any lingering precipitation.

The second half of the week will mirror the first half as upstream midlevel ridging currently positioned over the Pacific will return subsidence aloft and surface high pressure Thursday and Friday. Long range guidance depicts a more zonal flow pattern across the CONUS with additional waves of energy resulting in periodic chances of precipitation this weekend into early next week. The biggest story with the pattern change will be the retreat of cool cP air to the north and a Pacific air mass influence over the Great Lakes Region, causing surface temperatures to climb above climatological norms as we head into mid May.

Forecast Details:

Frost concerns tonight... Subsidence aloft will continue surface high pressure and quiet/dry weather today. 850mb temperatures remain below freezing, keeping high temperatures across the CWA in the upper 40s to low 50s through adiabatic heating processes. Afternoon mixing heights above 5000 ft agl will cause surface dew point temperatures to fall into the low 20s and upper teens across interior northern lower. No fire weather concerns are expected at this time, but lake breeze processes will lead to shifting winds and could create a small window of potentially hazardous conditions. Dry weather continues tonight combined with clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures falling near freezing tonight will continue widespread frost across the Northern Lower.

Showers spread this Tuesday through Wednesday... The aforementioned clipper will progress eastward today and make its way to the upper Midwest by Tuesday. Moisture will eventually saturate profiles from the top down, allowing rain to hit the surface by Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance continues to depict relatively stable profiles with mostly stable lapse rates. As a result, the majority of convection will remain to our south. A few embedded thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday evening ahead of the cold front, but most of the CWA should only expect rainfall of a quarter inch or less. Upstream ridging will slowly dry conditions aloft this Wednesday leading to some lingering drizzle with little to no additional QPF.

Seasonably warm temperatures are expected by the end of the week with periodic chances of precipitation... The well-advertised troughing pattern delivering today's cool temperatures will finally pivot eastward after the midweek clipper departs. Midlevel heights will rise across the Midwest, resulting in temperatures will begin to climb Thursday through the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s for most locations. Shortwave troughs track through the region around the Saturday timeframe followed by additional showers and storms early next week. Latest guidance depicts relatively weak storms this Saturday, but higher instability and more favorable jet dynamics could lead to some stronger storms early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 512 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

More VFR conditions under just some passing higher based cumulus today, and some increasing high level clouds later tonight. Northwest winds today, with local afternoon lake breeze development. Light winds tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-099. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ098. MARINE...None.