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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances return late tonight and linger at times into the upcoming weekend.

- Cooler temperatures to end the weekend, but moderating again next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, ~598 dM ridge is centered over the Four Corners with ridging encompassing much of western third of the CONUS. Sub-550 dM low pressure exists over Hudson Bay with attendant troughing draped into New England and much of the eastern third of the CONUS. Northern MI currently with weak/subtle mid-level ridging and attendant surface high pressure overhead, but eyes set on upstream shortwave trough set to make some progress into the western Great Lakes tonight. While this initial wave should exit downstream on Friday, additional energy aiding to reinforce longwave troughing will likely keep unsettled conditions at times through at least the first half of the weekend.

Longwave trough axis over the Great Lakes this weekend shifts east through early next week a less amplified, albeit occasionally still active, pattern for the middle and end of next week.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through this evening, although suppose there's still a non-zero chance of a rogue lake breeze driven shower through sunset. As was alluded to above, focus turns to incoming upstream wave, with current showers/embedded storms over parts of eastern MN and far northwest WI set to make slow eastward progress over the next 12-24+ hours. Initial isolated to scattered shower chances enter the forecast tonight, likely struggling (at least initially) to reach the ground given antecedent dry low-level air. Best chance for more frequent showers exists across the eastern U.P. tonight, closer to better moisture/forcing, with lower chances south of the bridge. Those better chances gradually percolate across the forecast area on Friday through Friday Friday night, and while the forecast will read as an ominous one for much of the area, expecting lots of dry time to prevail for any one location.

By Saturday, mid-level trough axis is expected to be swinging across northern MI, with at least isolated to scattered showers and a rumble of thunder remaining possible, with most numerous precip activity favored east of I-75. High temperatures Saturday largely in the 70s. Coolest day of the forecast period likely to be Sunday as the low-level thermal trough lags. Highs Sunday largely in the low- mid 70s across much of the forecast area, although wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots across the eastern U.P. and interior northern lower struggle to reach above the upper 60s. Still a rogue shower chance during the day Sunday, but would expect lots of dry time. High pressure looks to drift in for Sunday night for what'll likely be a seasonably chilly night -- perhaps a couple of localized upper 30s for lows Sunday night?

Much of early next week looks to feature dry conditions with gradually rebounding temperatures as highs cruise back to near 80 degrees by Tuesday. Next rain chances look to hold off until the late Tuesday - Wednesday time frame.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Primarily VFR through the forecast period. Slow moving area of low pressure over northern Minnesota to approach the region. Clouds to increase tonight through Friday afternoon, but abundant low level moisture should keep cloud bases above 9,000ft for all sites. Potential for a few light showers to manifest at CIU, and to a lesser extent, PLN, later tonight into Friday. Suppose a visibility or ceiling restriction is possible if a shower passes directly over the aforementioned TAF sites. Light W to NW winds today (with the exception of an easterly lake breeze at APN later today)... going calm overnight... turning SSE to SSW by daybreak and becoming a touch gusty later Friday morning into the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for LHZ347- 348. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.