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KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic front with flash freeze later tonight as temperatures fall quickly below freezing.

- Hazardous travel developing in some areas late tonight into Friday morning with snow, blowing snow, and low visibility. Whiteout conditions possible.

- Wind gusts of 40+ mph on Friday, resulting in localized power outages.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 208 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Deepening surface low moves through the northern lakes tonight, swinging an arctic cold front through the area mid to late evening. Winds veer southwest this evening with fropa, with the main core of cold air pushing into the area after midnight. Any slush or snow on side roads or parking lots will freeze up quickly as temperatures plummet through the 20s and into the upper teens in some areas. There may be a bit of a precipitation "lull" for a few hours between the intial fropa and the snow, with snow coverage increasing quickly with the arrival of the core of the cold air overnight. Fairly optimal snow efficiency parameters late tonight into Friday morning for areas along and west of I-75, with moisture and forcing pegged through a deep DGZ producing lake enhanced snow. This is likely where the heaviest snow will fall in most areas, with 2-3" of accumulation. Winds will also ramp up during this time as strong cold air advection begins to bring the stronger winds aloft to the surface. Conditions will deteriorate in many areas late with the increasing winds, creating areas of very low (whiteout at times) visibility and hazardous travel.

Lake effect snows on Friday as boundary layer winds veer northwest. Smaller flake size and overall less efficient snow parameters as continued strong cold air advection eventually pushes the moisture profile outside of the most favorable DGZ. Despite accumulations being limited, the smaller flake size combined with strong winds, will create hazardous travel with low visibility (whiteouts at times) due to blowing snow. Cold air advection downward momentum will bring 45kt winds at the top of the boundary layer to the surface. The strong winds may also push lake effect snow bands well inland for a time, pushing the activity east of I-75. Overall, expect poor travel conditions in parts of the area through the first half of the day. Conditions will gradually improve during the afternoon as the snow begins to diminish and the winds gradually subside.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 208 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Sitting in the baroclinic zone between much colder air to the north and much warmer air to the south, Northern Michigan weather will remain active with several clipper systems into next week. One clipper slides across the area later Saturday and Saturday night with accumulating snow over northern areas, followed by a period of lake effect snow in the favored snow belts. Another clipper may bring snow back into the forecast early next week. Warmer air across the middle of the country will begin to push toward the area as we head toward Christmas, possibly producing additional light mixed precipitation possibilities. Temperatures generally running above normal on most days throughout this period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 700 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Rain showers will move from west to east over the next few hours, resulting in drops to MVFR/IFR VSBYs at times. IFR/LIFR CIGs are currently in place across many interior areas of northern Michigan with low MVFR closer to the shorelines. CIGs are expected to improve with time tonight as a cold front swings across the area, bringing strong west-northwest winds between 10-20 kts and gusts to 25-35 kts into Friday afternoon. Lake effect snow showers will begin quickly behind the front early Friday morning and continue into Friday afternoon. While not explicitly included in the TAFs at this time, drops to 1/4SM VSBY will be possible at times under any heavier snow given the strong winds and cold temperatures making it more likely for fresh snow to blow around. Conditions are expected to improve Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031-032-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ321- 322. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Friday for LSZ321-322.