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KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid again today.

- Less hot Wednesday onward with periodic shower/storm chances returning Friday into at least the start of the weekend.

- Smoke from Ontario wildfires likely to result in hazy skies across parts of northern Michigan today, and especially Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Impressive heat dome remains in control today across the nation's midsection with another day of hot and humid weather on tap locally. However, digging mid-level waves in northern Ontario/Quebec will gradually suppress this heat dome southward, allowing heat/humidity to improve Wednesday onward. While no glaring precip concerns are seen through at least midweek, there's gradually increasing confidence in a return of scattered shower/storm chances late in the work week into the start of the weekend.

Forecast Details: Primary focus in the near-term solely revolved around another day of hot/humid weather across northern Michigan. Inherited heat advisories in good shape with widespread high temperatures spanning the 90s. Highest probabilities for a handful of locations to reach the triple digits are focused across downsloping northeast lower, especially near Saginaw Bay. Highest heat indices follow that footprint as well -- ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s (highest east of I-75). Occasional breeziness up to 20-25 mph may provide some temporary relief at times, but still a hot day no matter how you slice it.

As was alluded to above, heat dome begins to get pushed farther south starting tonight, and more so Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Relief from the heat as a result, but lots of uncertainties around just warm we're able to get Wednesday due to increasing potential for wildfire smoke from Ontario to filter in across much of the state. Latest suite of smoke- allowing guidance depicts at least low concentrations of upper- level smoke filtering in across the eastern U.P. and tip of the mitt later today, with concentrations (both aloft and near- surface) really ramping up later tonight through Wednesday. Longer range hi-res visibility progs picking up on this as well, with fairly high probabilities for reduced visibility at times on Wednesday due to smoke. Assuming this comes to fruition, Wednesday's forecast high temperatures in real jeopardy of being several degrees too high. Already bumped temps down a handful of degrees area-wide, but that may not be enough. Air quality issues likely to become a concern as well. Potential for hazy skies/smoke to continue on Thursday.

By late in the week into the start of the weekend, at least some potential exists for more active weather to return as more active mid-upper levels eventually prevail. Chances for showers/storms return as early as Friday and continue at times through the weekend (highest Friday night - Saturday).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR expected today with passing high clouds. West winds become a touch breezy for most terminals this afternoon before winds subside this evening into tonight. By late in the day, upper-level smoke from wildfires in Ontario is expected to be making inroads across parts of northern Michigan with increasing probabilities by late evening/overnight that near-surface FU/HZ may result in MVFR VSBYs.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342-344-345.