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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect showers tonight/breezy.

- Impacts of a system passing south of Michigan Wednesday and beyond...turning colder along with precipitation chances (synoptic Wednesday/lake effect Thursday-Friday).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Wavy...Pacific-dominant pattern continues across North America...with a short wave train extending from New England out into the Pacific basin south of the Aleutian Islands. One "car" in this train is crossing northern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes today...with strong height falls also progressing across the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia/Alberta. Next round of low level cold air advection also spreading across the upper Lakes today...in the wake of a cold/occluded front attached to 999mb surface low over far northern Ontario.

Short wave energy slips across the Great Lakes today with low amplitude short wave ridging for Monday. Remnants of short wave energy moving through western Canada this morning forecast to cross Michigan Tuesday...associated weak surface reflection passes north of Lake Superior but another cold front moves through Michigan probably early in the day. Large scale pattern still trending toward a more amplified +PNA/+EPO starting Wednesday as effects from a strengthening trough over the eastern Pacific ripple downstream. Will be watching a couple pieces of energy upstream...one over central Canada and a second digging into the Midwest. Both waves will help dig out a long wave trough across eastern North America for midweek: the latter feature is forecast to spin up a cyclone over the Midwest Wednesday. Some better consensus on this system tracking from the mid Mississippi Valley to somewhere along/north of the Ohio River by Thursday morning...then possibly transitioning to secondary east coast cyclogenesis. Resultant broad upper cyclone may keep the Great Lakes in its (cold) grip into next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Lake effect showers tonight/breezy: Synoptic moisture and decreasing stability over Lake Superior generating showers spreading into eastern Upper this afternoon. Also expect to increasing shower coverage over northern portions of Lake Michigan/Lake Huron as increased low level moisture in the form of an southeastward advancing Sc deck arrives. Shower probabilities will be more limited south of M-72/west of US-131 with a shallower CBL expected (lacking a longer effective fetch). Inversion highs should drop as tonight wears on with increasing downward forcing...so would expect shower coverage to decrease as well though will be a little slower than guidance would suggest given typical "lake convective inertia issues" for lack of a better scientific term. Gusty winds eventually coming from the northwest are expected into this evening...gusts 20 to 30mph with gusts 30 to 40mph around Whitefish Bay and along the US-23 corridor north of Thunder Bay off Lake Huron. Winds are expected to diminish overnight as surface ridge axis slide into Michigan and gradient relaxes.

Impacts of a system passing south of Michigan Wednesday and beyond...turning colder along with precipitation chances (synoptic Wednesday/lake effect Thursday-Friday): Short wave trough will be over the upper Midwest Wednesday...spinning up a surface cyclone in response near the Iowa/Missouri border tracking east/southeast along the Ohio River by Thursday morning. Some synoptic precipitation along deformation zone of this system possible across Lower Michigan Wednesday...but coldest air of the fall season so far arrives Thursday (especially given how downright balmy it has been since the start of October). 850mb temperatures may drop to or below -8C... providing a good lake convective set up. At this point boundary layer flow looks to be a bit east of north...so precipitation chances will be more likely closer to the shorelines. 850mb temperatures that cold would certainly suggest some snow probabilities even close to the lakes; snow probabilities are pretty small for right now but suspect they will improve as the week progresses.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Mix of low VFR to MVFR CIGs to remain through much of this cycle. SCT VCSH/-SHRA are expected this afternoon into early tonight, especially CIU, PLN, APN, with VFR VSBY likely. Activity lingers but diminishes through the night. Northwest winds slowly decrease through the night as well, but will remain breezy to windy this afternoon and evening, 10-15G20- 30KTs possible. Precipitation free weather is expected on Monday, however, the lower cloud deck will remain.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LHZ345-346-349. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LSZ322. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for LSZ321.