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KEY MESSAGES

- Low end shower/storm chances through midweek, marginal severe risk Wednesday.

- Increasing shower/storm chances this weekend with temperatures slightly below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Although widespread impactful weather may be limited across the northern Great Lakes much of this week, a still challenging forecast with several impulses in fast west/northwest flow. This results in a myriad of model solutions and lower end precipitation chances through Thursday, largely dominated by mesoscale processes and nebulous forcing. A stronger upper shortwave trough slides toward the Great Lakes this weekend, resulting in higher precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.

The primary instability/moisture corridor remains well to the south of the area the next several days in proximity to a quasi- stationary frontal boundary draped across the northern Ohio Valley. Hints of some remnant convection possibly trying to move toward the area tonight out of Wisconsin. Low confidence in this given waning instability and forcing but at least isolated potential. Areas of fog also possible again tonight. Wednesday features weak flow and likely lake breeze dominated forcing for any convection. This places the best shower/storm chances closer to Lake Huron in northern lower and interior sections of eastern upper. We may also see some scattered convection fire over southern parts of the area along a diffuse trough axis. Favorable shear profiles and some buoyancy, but once again the best moisture/forcing remain well to our south. SPC has us in a marginal severe risk during this timeframe. Additional low end shower/storm chances on Thursday, especially across southern parts of our area (south of M-32).

Return flow around departing high pressure for the weekend, combined with a much stronger upper level shortwave trough and associated surface low, will bring much better shower/storm chances to northern Michigan. Cooler and drier for early next week behind this feature. Overall, temperatures will run near or slightly below normal for the weekend into the first part of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR condtions will continue through this evening into early tonight with a few spotty low chances for showers/ thunderstorm perhaps across CIU, PLN, TVC, and MBL later tonight, but would not prevail. MVFR to IFR conditions expected to develop later tonight with low clouds and fog/mist forming. Conditions are expected to improve through the morning returning to VFR by the afternoon. Winds look to remain generally light with perhaps a few gusts to 15 knots in the afternoon Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.