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KEY MESSAGES

-Lingering drizzle/showers continue this morning before high pressure returns to quiet weather through Thursday.

-Overall quiet weather this weekend with periodic chances of showers and temperatures slowly building above normal for mid May.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A 500 mb shortwave trough is positioned over the upper Great Lakes this morning with its axis over Lake Huron progressing eastward. Upstream ridging currently over the central U.S will begin to move into the northwoods later today, providing enough subsidence aloft to dry out surface conditions this afternoon. As the surface based low departs to the east, then pressure gradients increase across the CWA resulting in breezy Northwest flow this afternoon into tonight followed by high pressure centering itself over the Midwest Thursday.

Dry and quiet conditions will persist this Thursday as the aforementioned ridge moves eastward. At the same time, another shortwave currently over the Pacific Northwest will develop another surface low lee of the Rockies and lift across Southern Hudson Bay while weakening. Enough energy will track across the Great Lakes region to support some convective-driven showers this Friday. The midlevel pattern turns more zonal this weekend over the central CONUS, with warmer air building over the northwoods as the Great Lakes region turns to a more Pacific Air mass influence rather than the cold air to the north. Additional waves of energy continue chances of precipitation and convection at times through the remainder of the forecast period, especially this Monday.

Forecast Details:

Lingering drizzle/showers continue this morning before high pressure returns to bring quiet weather through Thursday... Forecast soundings this morning depict profiles across Northern Michigan saturated in the lowest 5000ft agl as aforementioned subsidence dries out conditions aloft. A few scattered showers with low level overcast skies will persist this morning before high pressure scours out all rainfall. Widespread breezy winds build around 15z today through this evening with gusts reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s. 850mb temperatures near freezing will only build surface high temps into the upper 40s to low 50s today via adiabatic heating processes. Thursday appears to have the best characteristics of "pleasant weather" as surface high pressure center's itself over the midwest and returns sunny skies, light winds, and highs around 60 degrees.

Overall quiet weather this weekend with periodic chances of showers and temperatures slowly building above normal for mid May... Scattered convective-driven showers return Friday as another aforementioned wave lifts through Ontario. Boundary formation seems somewhat disheveled as it traverses across the region, leading to only a general trace to a few tenths of total rainfall. The midlevel pattern turns more zonal over the Great Lakes Region this weekend with a weak jet max overhead. Most of the weekend will remain dry and partly cloudy, but additional lingering showers remain possible across the region before more organized showers and storms track across Michigan Monday from a third shortwave trough developing upstream. Dew points surge into the 60s with enough instability to support some stronger storms and potential impactful weather across northern Michigan.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Widespread rain and embedded storms will continue to slide east across northern Michigan tonight, largely working out of the area shortly after midnight. Afterward, Light isolated/scattered showers and mist are anticipated into Wednesday. IFR/LIFR CIGs are also expected to continue spreading across northern Michigan tonight and Wednesday morning -- potentially sticking around for many areas into Wednesday evening. Flight conditions look to improve Wednesday evening/Wednesday night as the system pulls further away from the region. Northwest winds will increase late tonight into Wednesday morning. Sustained winds of 10-20 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts will be possible through Wednesday afternoon, eventually weakening later Wednesday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345- 346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.