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KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will be exiting this morning

- Rain with some mixed precipitation chances ahead of next clipper system Tuesday, then accumulating snow and cold temperatures return Wednesday

- Chances grow for an active weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 211 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Current satellite and radar show clouds and some light snow moving over northern MI this morning. A surface cyclone tracking across the Hudson Bay has carried a warm sector eastward with it, with some washed out hints of this extending down to the Great Lakes region. A roughly 13mb surface pressure gradient across the state (N/S) is being generated due to this airmass extending towards a 1030 surface high centered sound of the state. This and a 35 to 40kt jet at 850 mb is leading to elevated southwest winds this morning, with some surface observations showing wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. With generally NW flow aloft, a few weak shortwaves will help provide enough lift for some light to moderate snowfall this morning over eastern upper and near the Tip of the Mitt. The lack of more sufficient lift, and the short time window (snow will be out of here by the mid morning hours), leads to only a couple tenths of an inch up to an inch of accumulating snow in these spots.

Winds will remain elevated through midday, but will weaken through the afternoon as the aforementioned features move away from the area and weaken.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 211 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The next clipper system to impact the area (as early as Tuesday morning), is currently just starting take form as an area of broad and loosely organized lee troughing near the northern CAN Rockies (thanks to an upper jet of ~120kts racing around the upper ridge and entering CAN by Juneau AK). This cyclone will intensity as that upper jet continues to race over the northern Rockies today. Early Tuesday, it will glide southeast down the establishes storm track and towards the CAN side of the Great Lakes region. At this time, broad upper troughing exists over the central plains and eastern US. This upper troughing is weaker, being broad with gradients washed out. Due to the non-amplified pattern, most global and ensemble guidance has (and continues to) track the cyclone's center just north of MI and over southern Ontario. This means that more warm sector precip will move over MI early Tuesday as this cyclone tracks to the north of the CWA.

Depending on how quickly the onset of precipitation is, some locations could see some times of freezing rain/freezing drizzle early Tuesday morning as early morning temperatures could still be in the high 20s. As southwest winds advect higher surface Tds, areas of fog/freezing fog will also be possible from the early to mid morning hours. Surface temperatures should ultimately rise into the mid to high 30s with surface Tds not too far behind during the day Tuesday. A few waves of moderate precipitation will move through during the day on Tuesday, starting around sunrise. The 0C 850 mb line will be wiggling over the CWA with the intial onset of more moderate precipitation. This also coincides with better synoptic forcing (left exit region of upper jet leading to some upper level DIV). This is enough lift in a saturated DGZ to have snowfall, however surface temperatures will begin to climb. At this time, thoughts are that precip will become a rain/snow mix as intensities begin to increase for northern lower. With the 0C 850 line likely wiggling over northern lower, freezing rain remains possible before surface temperatures rise - and places that take longer to warm could see some freezing rain linger a little longer than expected (higher terrain of northern lower). However, the time window will likely not be long enough to see accumulations of ice greater than a glaze, and surface temperature will warm to above freezing later on Tuesday. Eastern upper will likely see more snow.

During the late afternoon/evening, forcing moves out. Temperatures will remain warm but precipitation should become generally light and be mostly rain, with a rain/snow mix in eastern upper. Behind the surface cyclone, a stronger cold front will push through late Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper shortwave over MI deepens. Lake enhanced and lake effect snow will result in accumulating snow for Wednesday. Its still early for snow totals, however winds could be more north-northwest to north and focus more snow over Grand Traverse Bay and west. Amounts at this time look to remain in advisory levels with a few isolated places maybe seeing greater. Lake effect snow should end Thursday as the next clipper system approaches, brining more widespread accumulating snow chances for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 632 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

MVFR cigs will thin out and lift with time to VFR this morning at MBL and then TVC. APN/PLN/CIU will stay MVFR thru most of this forecast. Somewhat blustery wsw winds today, becoming lighter tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ345- 347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ341- 342-344>346.