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KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures, times of light showers, clouds and occasionally brisk/breezy winds will persist through Saturday

- High confidence in freezing temperatures overnight for inland locations, and frost conditions for coastal areas tonight into early Friday morning and Friday night into early Saturday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Current water vapor satellite depicts a closed upper low with continental moisture wrapped up within it spinning over Lk Superior. Under this, light northwest winds are continuing to slowly increase surface pressure over northern MI. Surface observations show temperatures in the low to mid 30s over eastern upper, where skies have been a little more clear and slightly drier air exists (Tds in the high 20s). Mostly cloudy skies and slightly higher moisture in the near surface air has kept temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s south of the bridge so far this morning. Although skies will remain somewhat cloudy this morning, temperatures should continue to fall to near freezing for interior spots and the mid 30s elsewhere just before sunrise.

As the upper closed low continues to spin over Lk Superior and Ontario CAN today, existing elevated moisture and steep sfc to 3km lapse rates lead to an unstable environment where showery activity will remain possible over much of northern MI through tonight. Times of light rain will be seen, with a stronger shower or two possibly producing some graupel. This evening, an upper shortwave extending from the closed low will rotated southward over the northern plains. Ahead of it, an elevated boundary (around 850mb) will help to continue the showery activity into the night. Surface temperatuers will be cold enough for snow showers to remain snow near the surface, meaning isolated snow showers could result in a dusting of snow in some spots.

With this surge secondary surge overnight, there is high confidence that interior temperatures will cool to freezing or slightly below. Temperatures near the coast will likely dip into the mid 30s, introducing frost concerns.

The upper closed low will continue to influence the region Friday, with a renewed chance of showers under the colder temperatures aloft but diurnal warming at the surface (thanks to our stronger sun angles). Snow showers will slowly turn to rain showers Friday morning, with precipitation remaining light. Afternoon temperatuers will likely stay in the 40s for most spots.

Saturday, the upper closed low exits to the northeast as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west. This colder surface airmass will keep temperatures cool, with no precipitation chances and light winds.

The next system will approach Sunday, returning southwest winds and warmer temperatures. Widespread rain chances will eventually move through, either Sunday or Monday. Decent spread in guidance exists for what happens after this, if another closed upper level low returns to the Great Lakes region or if it remains farther north in CAN. These would result in different outcomes, one much colder than the other.. however both solutions do indicate that the warming period Sunday through early next week will likely be brief, with below normal temperatures returning next week. The question of how cold and if there will be precipitation remains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 502 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Any lingering MVFR cigs expected to rise to VFR this morning as low level mixing increases. VFR conditions expected into this afternoon and evening under just some higher based cumulus and passing higher level clouds. May see some MVFR cigs develop by Friday morning... especially at KCIU and KAPN. Likely to see a few non-vis restricting showers at time today into tonight. Northwest winds will continue, at times a touch gusty this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 021>023-027>029-032>034-099. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ024-026-030- 035. MARINE...None.