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KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms continue into this evening.

- Strong storm system with potential for locally heavy rain Wednesday night into early Thursday.

- Below normal temperatures likely to persist through at least the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure continues to spin near/just south of Hudson Bay this afternoon -- likely to remain in a similar position for much of the week ahead. Longwave troughing evident across the eastern half of NOAM with an embedded shortwave digging into the western Great Lakes this afternoon. This will aid in support relatively weak pressure falls along a slow- moving cold front set to cross the area this afternoon/evening.

Low amplitude shortwave ridging briefly slides overhead during the day Wednesday in advance of an impressive mid-June system expected to cross the Great Lakes later Wednesday into Thursday. As has been alluded to sufficiently by the previous several shifts, the strength of this system is noteworthy for mid-June. Sub-700mb heights and MSLP progged to be lower/deeper than any comparison from the 1979- 2009 Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) climatology for a several week period centered on June 18th. Vast majority of ensemble members continue to prog a ~990mb low, yielding fairly high confidence, as has been the case for the last couple of days.

Beyond Thursday, broad troughing likely to persist across the Great Lakes through at least the upcoming weekend with at least slightly below normal temperatures expected to continue.

Forecast Details: Scattered showers and storms are underway across parts of northern MI as of early this afternoon, most numerously exiting east off into Lake Huron as of 20z. Lots of large hail producers in the strongest storms so far this afternoon. Some strong to severe threat continues through early evening, propelled by continued 500+ J/kg MLCAPE across parts of northern lower MI. That said, the areal coverage of any strong to severe storms should be far less than earlier this afternoon. Otherwise, locally heavy downpours expected to continue under any more robust cells with localized additional rain amounts in excess of 1.50" possible.

Relatively tranquil conditions expected to return for the second half of tonight through much of the day on Wednesday. However, focus quickly transitions to the late Wednesday afternoon/evening time frame for additional, more widespread, rain to arrive from the west- southwest. While higher end severe/heavy rain impacts will focus to our south, at least low potential still exists locally for periods of steady rain to add up to 1"+ over a 12+ hour period across parts of the forecast area. PWs ranging from 1-1.5" help to support that thought, but do have some concern that convection to our south late Wednesday/Wednesday evening may "rob" some of our moisture and prevent a truly steady shield of rain from materializing this far north.

Winds turn out of the north-northwest Thursday morning through the remainder of the day with a rather cool/fall-like day anticipated. High temperatures may struggle to reach much above the low-mid 60s for much of the forecast area under lots of clouds and occasional continued showery conditions. A gradual drying trend anticipated thereafter for late in the work week into the weekend with more sunshine and daytime temperatures slowly moderating a handful of degrees for the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Clouds will continue to increase through the day as shower/storm chances increase, though VFR is expected to prevail through at least 02z. The potential for storms exists for all northern Lower sites this afternoon into the evening, with the possibility of brief lowered visibilities from heavier rain as well as some gustier winds if a storm passes over a terminal... With storms already currently popping up on radar. Lingering low-level moisture will lead to an increase in low clouds through the overnight hours, eventually turning conditions MVFR to possibly even IFR ~10z with decreasing winds. Condtions look to temporarily improve from west to east through Wednesday morning back to VFR with increasing winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345- 346.