textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy east winds

- Dry conditions and warm temperatures will linger through much of next week

- Next rain chances could be near the end of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A persisting omega block continues to influence the CONUS today, with amplified ridging up through central CAN and upper lows over the western CONUS/northern plains as well as the northeast CONUS. Current water vapor satellite depicts an upper jet starting to deepen into a shortwave over the southern part of the Hudson Bay. Satellite derived PWATs also show around +1" of deep Gulf moisture advecting on the windward side of the upper ridge, reaching the CAN front range (many 00z RAOBs over the central and northern plains confirm this as well as the ongoing convection). Northern MI continues to be on the leeward side of the upper ridging, which continues to reinforce dry continental CAN air over the region. This stark clashing of airmasses can be seen over IL/IA/IN with surface Td gradients of 20 to 30 degrees across these states.

Today, the center of a surface high pressure resides right over northern MI. Light winds with afternoon breezes, sunny skies and warm temperatures will be seen. Lake breeze action is likely near the coastal areas this afternoon. Elevated fire danger will be seen this afternoon as RHs dip to as low as the high teens in some interior spots, and breeze afternoon winds establish. As the aforementioned upper shortwave over the Hudson Bay deepens, another surge of dry/cooler air will be on the door step tonight.

East winds will likely remain elevated enough to keep temperatures from dropping into the 30s as the side-door front moves through early Monday morning. Breezy east to northeast winds with frequent gusts up to 20 to 25 mph will bee seen most of Monday. Skies will likely persist as mostly clear, and dry air near the surface continues to be reinforced behind the boundary. Temperatures will cool a couple of degrees for the Lk Huron counties, otherwise localized warm spots over Lk MI will be seen due to downsloping across the peninsula. Elevated fire danger will likely be seen again Monday afternoon, especially with highly unstable conditions up to 8kft or higher.

Starting Tuesday, the blocking patterns begins to shift. The upper ridge will slide to the east, and land over northern MI. Sunny skies continue, with temperatures now warming into the 80s in the afternoon. Dry conditions persist, with locally driven lake breeze winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, an upper closed low approaches as the whole block weakens and continues east. Depending on timing, winds turn southwest either Thursday or late Thursday/Friday and strengthen ahead of the next system. Wrapped up, recycled moisture will move over the areas with it and bring rain and storm chances back to northern MI. Lots of uncertainty in the timing and intensity/amount of rain remains as multiple days/rounds of convection over the plains/northern plains has to occur before this. There is also the inherent uncertainty with how quickly this block will weaken and move east. Global deterministic and AI guidance suggests rain chances Friday, however ensembles show a spread from Friday to Sunday indicating that the upper ridging could take another day or two to finally move east.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR. Dry air remains in place, with limited cloud cover. Light winds, onshore lake breezes in the afternoon and early evenings.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.