textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Quick moving clipper will bring light to moderate snow and gusty winds to eastern upper and parts of northern lower this morning. Low visibilities will be possible during this morning's commute.

- Precipitation chances arrive Wednesday for parts of northern MI and linger through late Thursday.

- Colder temperatures and light precipitation chances for the end of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Current water vapor satellite shows moisture over MN/WI moving east towards MI this morning. A PNA pattern in the upper levels is aiding in Pacific moisture transport, as well as a surface cyclone tracking across Ontario CAN and the Hudson Bay this morning. This cyclone is dragging a trailing cold front with it, which extends down towards northern MW/WI. Light snow is being reported near the US/CAN border in MN and over parts of the western U.P.. The surface cyclone will continue to track eastward, brining light to moderate snow to eastern upper and northern lower starting around sunrise. There will be assistance from some upper jet dynamics, however the main forcing mechanism will be an elevated boundary (around 850 - 700 mb). Although sounding profiles depict a decent environment for moderate snow, the window for snow will be too brief for accumulations higher than a couple inches. With that said, times of moderate snow will be seen during this mornings commute and could result in times of lowered visibility and light accumulations on roads. Most of northern MI will see snow this morning, however locations that have the better chances of a couple inches will be north of M-32. Lingering light snow will be possible through the afternoon hours, however the moderate snow will have exited by midday. Southwest winds will strengthen as snow moves in, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph shortly after sunrise. These winds combined with times of moderate snow results in some spots seeing visibilities down to a mile or less. Impacts will remain confined to the morning hours as winds will turn west this afternoon and weaken.

Starting Wednesday, a strong (~150kt) upper jet will establish over the upper ridge in the western CONUS. A general area of surface low pressure will form on the leeward side of the northern Rockies. At the same time, return flow around a surface high in the SE CONUS will aid in generating southerly winds over much of the central US. This will spread warmer air northward towards the northern plains, where it will meet with an existing colder CAN airmass (which settled in behind the surface cyclone passing through today). A baroclinic zone over much of the US/CAN border near the northern plains will establish. Pacific moisture advecting around the upper high and ideal jet dynamics will spread precipitation over much of the northern plains and southern CAN Wednesday. This precip will likely move over eastern upper and parts of northern lower Wednesday as the pattern continues to progress (upper trough moves into the Pac NW and shoves the upper ridge to the south with continuing the upper jet east). The column will likely still be cold enough for snow on Wednesday, however warm air in the lower levels will reach most of northern MI Thursday. At this time, chances remain in favor of precipitation being most rain with some rain/snow mix over eastern upper Thursday. These features beginning farther north and tracking more zonal (not as amplified of a pattern) leads to a better set up for precipitation type remaining either rain, snow, or a mix of each. Light freezing rain could be seen overnight as surface temperatuers fall below freezing in eastern upper Wednesday night, which could still result in slick roads. However chances remain low for significant ice accumulations.

A cold front will finally push through early Friday, with light lake effect snow possible Friday into early Saturday. Precipitation chances linger through early next week as temperatures warm back to near normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Snow showers develop esp after 9z for CIU/PLN and slowly spread S toward APN/TVC thru morning; think MBL could remain quiet till after 18z as front sort of fades out across N. Lower MI. Front to lift back north thru MBL toward 6z Wed with renewed SN chances. Expect primarily SN but could try to mix with RA after 18z for TVC and MBL. Also some low potential for FZDZ at CIU, PLN, APN between 12-18z before things clear out for afternoon there. Still concerned about patchy fog thru 9-12z...but have more concerns for fog after 0z Wed. Prevailing MVFR with occasional IFR expected (IFR more likely at CIU/PLN, with low chances for LIFR at times thru 15-18z). Winds increase from SW thru 9z, with LLWS from SW around 25-35kts, and mixes down toward 12z along front. Winds eventually turn W and turn vrb as front fades out in vc during the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345- 346. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.