textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rainfall continues to spread across Michigan's lower penisula this afternoon.

-High pressure supports quiet weather this week with seasonably normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Midlevel flow remains somewhat zonal across the Great Lakes Region with upstream weak troughing over the Northwestern United States. Surface low pressure currently over the central CONUS will progress northeast across the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening, supporting light rainfall to the Northwoods.

The midlevel pattern develops a quasi-split flow set up this Monday with weak southerly flow across the mid/southern Mississippi Valley and Northern Flow extending up to Northern Canada. The remainder of the week will remain benign across the Midwest as broad midlevel ridging to the north develops through Friday, supporting surface high pressure and seasonably normal temperatures. Some low-end chances of precipitation will likely enter the forecast next weekend as a weak cyclone drags a frontal boundary across the 45th parallel, but confidence on any appreciable precipitation remains low at this time.

Forecast Details:

Today and Sunday...Previously mentioned low pressure currently over the Central U.S this morning will continue to develop and deepen this afternoon. A narrow band of frontogenesis will centralize the strongest forcing to our southwest where Wisconsin and Illinois will likely observe several inches, but much less is expected over our CWA. Latest high-resolution guidance keeps measurable rainfall south of the M-32 corridor, with highest amounts of a general quarter to half inch along and south of Grand Traverse Bay. Showers will taper off overnight as low pressure progresses downstream. A few showers with patchy fog remain possible Sunday morning but will burn off quickly as upstream high pressure begins to build.

Monday through Saturday Outlook...Broad midlevel ridging to our north builds this Monday to return quiet weather Monday through Friday. Surface high pressure with H8 temperatures in the single digits will support mostly sunny skies with highs in the 60s most days and chilly overnight lows in the 40s for most areas. Only chance of precipitation remains at the end of the forecast period as a weak low pressure system develops over northern Canada and progresses eastward. An aforementioned weak frontal boundary will attempt to return low end chances of rainfall, but the long range pattern is expected to remain dry overall as this split flow pattern keeps any disturbances north or south of the Great Lakes Region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 538 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A challenging taf period as upstream low clouds and rain attempt to move east into at least parts of our area today into tonight. Latest trends support MVFR to perhaps IFR cigs spreading into KMBL by later this morning/early afternoon...with these lower cigs eventually reaching KTVC by this evening. Lower cigs expected to reach KPLN and KAPN as well by later tonight, but bases should still remain VFR. Just higher level clouds expected at KCIU. Chances for rain will also increase with time, especially at KMBL and KTVC (although better rains may remain off to the south). Light northeast winds today become light and variable tonight. Combination of those light winds and increasing low level moisture may result in some patchy mist/fog tonight as well.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.