textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke/haze through Friday

- Shower/storm chances return Friday-Saturday, locally heavy rain possible Fri night

- Cooler next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

In the near term, a narrow ridge of high pressure extends from southern Manitoba toward eastern WI. Nw low- and mid-level flow continues into the northern lakes east of this high, and well in advance of 500mb ridging in the plains. Lengthy band of confluent mid-level winds is contributing to mid clouds and a healthy amount of virga. A chance for a sprinkle is still mentioned in northern areas into late afternoon. But the main immediate concern is the widespread smoke steadily encroaching on northern MI from n to s. Vsbys of 3/4-2SM are common north of M-72, 3-5SM to the south.

The smoke seems likely to persist into Friday. Another burst of better smoke is working south toward Lk Superior, and this should contribute in part to a lousy Thursday from a smoke/air quality standpoint. Surface winds relax a bit Friday, with an eventual easterly breeze developing. But that seems unlikely to be enough to seriously usher smoke out of the region.

Sensible wx other than smoke is minimal into Thursday. Some models try to pop a few showers in central WI tonight, extending e and ese-ward from the MSP area. This is just south of the surface ridge axis. But this activity struggles to work across Lake MI overnight, and even if it does, it is most likely to do so to our south. A more prominent shortwave trof is still progged to cross the northern lakes Saturday, increasing forcing and moisture ahead of it. A broad area of MlCape values over 1k J/kg develops Friday in the western lakes, upstream of us initially. But that will help feed activity moving into our area. After an initial chance for showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder Friday, showers and storms become more likely Fri night into Saturday. Locally heavy rain is possible, especially Fri night, with isolated rain totals in excess of an inch.

Still looks like we dry out for a bit to close out the weekend, before additional shortwave return showers Monday and beyond. Temps will also cool to below normal levels by early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Smoke has impacted mostly all terminals, lowering visibilities and even lowering ceilings in some areas. Trends support smoke continuing to move south through the day with impacts remaining through Thursday. Winds out of the northwest continue through the period, occasionally breezy at times this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Fair amount of uncertainty in visibilities and ceilings heading into tonight and Thursday with some guidance holding onto IFR to even LIFR condtions. Have trended lower visibilities looking at satellite imagery and current obs/trends, but this continues to be something we will have to monitor closely through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ346>348. Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341- 342-344. Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.