textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Combination of moderate to heavy wet snow and at least moderate icing will result in hazardous to dangerous travel Tuesday night through Wednesday night across parts of northern Michigan.

- Another system will bring wintry impacts to northern Michigan to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Not a whole lot of change from previous forecasts with respect to the overall pattern synopsis and forecast. Brief mid-upper level ridging continues to cross the area today through this evening in response to upstream energy digging across the western third of the CONUS. Energy on the leading edge of upstream troughing will trek northeastward into the northern Plains/upper MS Valley with attendant deepening low pressure expected to be situated over central/southern MN by 12z Wednesday. Strong isentropic ascent will be realized locally ahead of this feature with a wintry mix of precipitation and associated impacts starting tonight and continuing through the day Wednesday.

Beyond this system above, another piece of energy is expected to eject from the Intermountain West with lee side cyclogenesis underway across the Plains by Wednesday night into Thursday. This system expected to track from the mid-MS Valley into the lower Great Lakes by later Thursday-Friday, likely bringing another round of potentially impactful wintry weather to at least parts of northern MI. Uncertainty grows beyond Friday with respect to how the pattern evolves through the weekend into early next week, but additional upstream energy may provide additional chances for wintry weather at times across parts of the nation's midsection.

Forecast Details:

Impactful snow and ice tonight - Wednesday: Overall, not a ton of change to the overnight shift's thinking with respect to snow/ice accumulation across northern MI. Latest confidence continues to lie in solution that spreads widespread precip from southwest to northeast across northern MI tonight, mainly after 06z, and continues most widespread through Wednesday morning before the axis of heaviest precip begins to shift north.

Heavy/wet snow: Favored areas for moderate to heavy wet snow continue to be across the Straits into the eastern U.P. and from near the tip of the mitt to across a section of northeast lower to near Alpena. Accumulations across these areas generally varying from 4-8" although some locally higher amounts remain possible. Did see a slight sag south in better snow accum with a couple of inches now possible as far south as Gaylord to Mio to Harrisville.

Icing: On that southern periphery of heaviest snow and points farther south, best potential exists for 0.10"+ of ice. This generally stretching from far northwest lower (Petoskey/Charlevoix) and points south and east to Houghton Lake, West Branch and Standish. Still signals that localized areas within this swath of icing could see significant icing near or slightly in excess of 0.25". These areas obviously favored for less snow, but could mix with accumulating sleet at times. Low confidence in significant (0.5"+) sleet, but even a a few tenths of sleet can exacerbate hazardous travel conditions. Did toy with the idea of adding Wexford County into the Winter Weather Advisory for icing as latest forecast has far eastern portions of the county with up to a tenth of an inch of ice and given terrain through that county, there'll likely be some spots that ice up, but simply not enough confidence to warrant that at this time.

Winds: Easterly winds intensify tonight, mainly after 09z, and remain strongest through early afternoon Wednesday. Highest gusts of around 35 mph favored across far northwest lower, the tip of the mitt and eastern U.P. While SLRs for areas that see snow will be low (under 10:1) limiting blowing/drifting, significantly reduced visibility and hazardous to dangerous travel is expected. For icing areas, these gusty winds may amplify impacts, especially with icing on tree limbs/power lines with at least scattered power outages anticipated (exponentially more likely in areas that see higher end ice accum.).

Did contemplate an upgrade to ice storm warning across a handful of counties across northern lower, but much as the overnight shift dealt with, confidence in realizing >0.25" ice is low. Otherwise, no changes were made to inherited headlines. That said, the night shift will have another crack at potential upgrades tonight coinciding with precip arrival. Beyond the steadiest precip lifting north across much of the area by early Wednesday afternoon, light mixed snow/freezing rain may continue across parts of eastern upper into the evening with a lingering freezing drizzle threat across portions of northern lower. All in all, not a fun day tomorrow to be out and about with hazardous to dangerous travel conditions expected across the majority of northern Michigan.

Late week wintry weather: Confidence continues to increase in additional wintry impacts late this week, potentially as early as Thursday night, but more so during the day Friday. In general, a favored solution brings low pressure from the mid-MS Valley into the Great Lakes, but just where that system tracks remains low confidence. Consensus generally has two solutions -- a more southeastern track across the southern Great Lakes/southeast MI/Ohio Valley, which would result in light to moderate snow across much of northern MI. Or, a more amplified westerly solution with low pressure through WI -- this would bring about additional wintry mix (ice and snow) concerns. All in all, another round of wintry weather expected, but lots of details to iron out with respect to what form precip falls in and resultant impacts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

BR and FG currently at KCIU, KAPN, and KPLN will slowly improve this afternoon while KTVC and KMBL will remain VFR through 00Z Wednesday. Condtions deteriorate overnight as incoming RA and SN will lower CIG'S and VSBY's at all sites through the remainder of the TAF period (mostly LIFR across the region). Chances of ZR and PL remain possible at all TAF sites besides KMBL overnight through Wednesday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ016>018-023-024-086>088-095>097. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ021-022-027>030-033>036-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ041-042. MARINE...None.