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KEY MESSAGES

- Messy mixed precipitation event tonight and Friday...likely resulting in some travel impacts.

- More mixed precipitation likely later this weekend...with a transition to much colder conditions and lake effect snow to kick off next week.

- More typical winter weather expected across the Great Lakes through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

An enjoyable and rather quiet Christmas Day across the Northwoods...courtesy of surface ridging extending from Ontario south into the northern Ohio Valley. Mixed bag of clouds out there, with skies ranging from partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures running right about were they should be to kick off the last week of December, with current readings ranging from the upper teens to middle 30s

All attention through the short term portion of this forecast directed at shortwave trough and rather robust upper level jet currently rotating east across the Interior West. This wave will race east, cutting across our region Friday. Rather robust deep layer support and attendant plume of Pacific moisture...both within a sharp north/south low level thermal gradient...should help drive a period of mixed precipitation across northern Michigan tonight through Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Evolution (both timing and amounts) of mixed precipitation tonight and Friday. Impacts and attendant headline management concerns will also need to be addressed.

Details:

Definitely a challenging forecast heading through the next 24 hours, with a considerable amount of uncertainty remaining in both the structure of the vertical temperature regime as well as precipitation evolution and organization. Still expecting kinda a two-fold precipitation event, with initial wing of what should be all snow developing and propagating east southeast along elevated thermal gradient this evening into the early overnight. Juxtaposition of moisture and best thermal gradient/attendant mass field adjustments via robust low level jet suggest this area of snow primarily impacting areas north of the big bridge. Still some question on where the best collocation of moisture and forcing will reside...with some support better snows stay north and east into Lake Superior and Ontario. Could easily see at least a few inches of snow with this initial round...heaviest along and east of Interstate 75 across eastern upper Michigan. Next round of precipitation set to arrive with approach of primary wave and left exit region upper jet support later tonight into Friday morning. This in even a more complicated scenario, with elevated and mature warm nose punching north within intial warm air advection regime...above what should be a surface rooted layer remaining below freezing. Depth of this warm nose steadily decreases the further north one goes, with this warm nose further modified by initial evaporational cooling and forced lift through the vertical. Depth and magnitude of expected warm air aloft supports a transition from freezing rain across our south and southwest to primarily snow across eastern upper Michigan...with full range of wintry precipitation types between these areas. And, to only further complicate matters, could see precipitation remaining more banded with even some convective elements... suggesting high variability in overall snow, sleet, and freezing rain amounts by Friday afternoon. Definitely wish confidence was higher, and will simply utilize pattern recognition and guidance trends for this forecast. Utilizing this methodology suggests snow/sleet accumulations on the order of a few inches across northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan with this second round of precipitation later tonight into early Friday afternoon. Freezing rain becomes a much bigger concern the further south one goes, with trends supporting at least some minor ice accumulations (mostly a tenth of an inch or less)...especially along and southwest of a line extending from Traverse City to Oscoda. While these amounts will likely negate much tree or powerline damage, definitely expect those secondary and untreated road surface to become quite icy. While not all areas will hit specific advisory level ice/sleet/snow thresholds...given busy travel period and impacts on those untreated road surfaces will go ahead and expand inherited advisory wording to cover all areas on Friday. Expect precipitation to steadily end from west to east heading through Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Transition to a more active weather regime expected to continue through the extended period of the forecast. Initial concern centers on rather vigorous (and further deepening) shortwave trough slated to race across the area later this weekend. Additional waves set to arrive at various times through the week in robust northwest flow aloft.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow/mixed precipitation concerns through the period.

Details:

Dry and seasonably mild weather Saturday gives way to our next period of active weather later Saturday night into the start of next week. Still plenty of questions and uncertainty on how things unfold later this weekend, with at least some support for developing low pressure to work its way across the lower Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. Overhead airmass will be a relatively mild one, suggesting a rain/snow scenario across northern Michigan Saturday night and Sunday, with a transition to lake-driven snows in post-low cold air advection regime Sunday night and Monday. Definitely could see some travel impacts Saturday night through Monday night, but much too early to get too specific with regards to snow amounts (although confidence is pretty high in at least some accumulating snow in our traditional snow belt locations Sunday night into Monday night). Definitely turning colder by Monday, with highs falling through the 20s.

As mentioned earlier, pattern looks to remain rather active thereafter...with at least some support for clipper type systems to impact northern Michigan next week. Airmass also looks cold enough to support some lake moisture contribution as well. While again much too early for any real specifics, it definitely looks like a return to more typical northern Michigan winter weather is in the offing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 644 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Messy weather ahead. -SN develops from CIU to APN between 3-5z; should be quiet till closer to 8-10z for MBL/TVC, perhaps even PLN, when -IP and -FZRA start to develop. (PLN looks to stay more -SN attm.) Expect these to continue thru 18z and am concerned we will end up with -FZDZ thru afternoon for all sites once main batch of wintry mix departs W to E. Cigs/visbys generally MVFR becoming IFR after 9-12z, could touch LIFR at times between 13-17z, with potential for improvements to MVFR in afternoon. Winds E/SE sustained 8-14kts gust as high as 25-35kts but gusts could remain trapped around 1500-2000ft as LLWS thru 8z. Winds should taper thru the day Friday, staying E to perhaps slightly NE by late in the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.