textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue over the next several days.

- Active weather returns midweek with a myriad of precipitation types expected across northern Michigan, including the potential for accumulating snow and ice.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Generally zonal flow across the western Great Lakes this afternoon through Monday night. A couple of subtle waves expected to trek through this flow -- the first exiting stage right early this afternoon with little fanfare. The second expected to arrive very late tonight into Monday morning, largely exiting downstream by Monday afternoon.

Attention then rapidly turns to the midweek timeframe with well- advertised return of potentially impactful wintry weather across at least parts of northern MI. Mid-upper level heights build during the day Tuesday with ridging crossing the area Tuesday night in advance of amplified troughing digging across the northern tier of the CONUS upstream. Attendant surface low development across the Plains is expected to ride along an impressive baroclinic zone stretched from Alberta to upstate NY through the midweek time frame with these features bringing a return of wintry weather locally starting Tuesday night potentially all the way into Thursday.

Beyond this, a couple of additional synoptic systems possible late in the work week into next weekend. Uncertainty only amplifies in this day 5-7+ time frame, but needless to say, there's growing potential for a return of active wintry weather across parts of the Great Lakes.

Forecast Details: As has been the case the past couple of nights, some additional fog/stratus development likely again tonight across parts of the area with visibilities falling to 1/4 mile or less in spots. Monday's weak wave expected to bring initial light snow showers chances back into the eastern U.P. late tonight into early Monday morning. Suppose probabilities for freezing rain aren't zero during this time frame with soundings showing a subtle warm nose near 925mb. These brief wintry mix chances spread across the remainder of eastern upper and into the tip of the mitt mid-morning through early afternoon before chances wane by early afternoon. Not a whole lot of impact anticipated from this, but some patchy ice and/or minor snow accum. could result. Afternoon high temperatures Monday expected to climb into the 40s across much of northern lower with mid-30s to near 40 north of the bridge. Suppose some lower 50s not out of the question near Saginaw Bay and perhaps up to the M-72 corridor, albeit those top end temps likely cloud dependent.

Tuesday night - Thursday: As has been alluded to over the last several days, this system likely to bring a virtual potpourri of precipitation types to northern Michigan given antecedent "warm" airmass in place early this week and the aformentioned baroclinic zone expected to set up across lower MI with colder temperatures bottled up to our north yet much milder air well to our south. Latest ENS trends support initial precip arriving Tuesday night and continuing most widespread through Wednesday before the heaviest axis of precip shifts north, but with potential for lighter/more scattered precip to linger perhaps into the day on Thursday. Not a ton of confidence in specific accumulation, but latest trends continue to favor a primarily snow event across the eastern U.P. with snow accum. in excess of 6 inches possible. Some form of snow/sleet/freezing rain across far northern lower, and more of an all rain/perhaps freezing rain threat over the southern reaches of APX's footprint. Do have growing concern that east-northeast low- level flow will hinder much in the way of sfc warming and potentially result in an extended period of icing for locations that see freezing rain as the dominant precip type. Would be be remiss not to at least mention that there's a solution that exists somewhere in this universe where the stars align and some locations see a seriously impactful ice storm. Lots of refinement to come with details and locations of highest impact, but it's a pretty safe bet to say at this point some spots in northern MI will be dealing with impactful wintry weather Tuesday night through the midweek time frame.

Beyond this midweek system, longer range trends continue to support to the potential for an additional southern stream wave(s) to trek across the Great Lakes late in the week, and perhaps again over the weekend. Potential for wintry impacts with this as well with lots of refinement to come over 5+ days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Currently some FG/BR is still lingering and resulting in some MVFR vis for KAPN and other non TAF terminals across northern MI. A low stratus deck (OVC006) is over northern Lake MI and seeping into adjacent areas of the U.P. South winds will veer northwest around 19/20Z. This combined with a light lake breeze will likely bring those low ceilings and FG/BR inland impacting KPLN. Guidance has kept KTVC on the fringes, with most of this being to the north before 00Z. After 00Z this will likely approach KTVC and lead to MVFR/IFR (possibly times of LIFR vis) cigs and vis.

Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR vis and cigs for most terminals returning after 02/03Z as low stratus and areas of FG spread across northern lower and eastern upper. Drier air will move in from the southwest around 08Z and work to erode some of the low stratus and FG, which could lead to VFR conditions before sunrise for KMBL/KTVC. Winds remain light.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.