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KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures through Wednesday, cooling closer to seasonal normals for the end of the week.

- Rain continues periodically through late week with occasional rumbles of thunder possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

The upper level pattern this afternoon features deep troughing over the central CONUS acquiring a slight negative tilt as it lifts from the central Plains towards the Upper Mississippi River Valley, with difluent flow out ahead of it over the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, an elongated trough spans from the central Plains to Lake Superior, with rain showers ongoing along and ahead of an associated frontal zone from Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. As such, the bulk of precipitation over our area today has been confined to the eastern U.P. while the northern Lower has remained mostly dry. The best precipitation chances will remain over the eastern U.P. and northwestern Lower through into tonight as a surface low tracks from the eastern Dakotas to western Lake Superior, with locations east of US-131 staying mostly dry into Wednesday morning. Expect fairly minimal precipitation amounts through tonight as the best forcing resides to the north and west, with a tenth to a quarter inch of rain possible for the eastern U.P. and generally less than a tenth across the northern Lower.

Northern Michigan remains in the warm sector through Wednesday, allowing for another seasonably warm day with highs in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area. Rain looks to spread back into the area from the south and west in the afternoon as a secondary surface low lifts into the Upper MS River Valley and swings a front across Lower Michigan. Precipitable water values will remain well above an inch, near the climatological max for early November, into the afternoon. However, precipitation amounts still look rather limited as the better forcing remains displaced to the west through most of the day.

Showery weather persists into Thursday as the upper low meanders over the Upper MS River Valley and then phases with a northern stream shortwave crossing Hudson Bay, finally shifting the trough eastward into the Great Lakes. High temperatures will subsequently drop closer to seasonal norms in the 50s as 850 mb temps cool close to 0 C over the eastern U.P. and 3-5 C over the northern Lower by Thursday evening. Cool and showery weather lingers into Friday as the upper low remains over Lower Michigan, with continued cold air advection dropping high into the 40s for Friday afternoon. There is some indication of drier weather for the weekend as troughing shifts eastward and surface high pressure builds in from the west, allowing temps to rebound back into the 50s by Sunday and early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 654 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain showers will make a renewed push into more of northern MI Wednesday. Some light showers will occur tonight, especially in eastern upper MI (CIU). CIU also sees IFR cigs tonight, while PLN worsens to MVFR. TVC/MBL stay VFR tonight, becoming MVFR for part of Wed. APN just VFR.

Southerly winds continue, breezy at times.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.