textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for light wintry precipitation continue at times over the next several days.

- Temperatures continue to trend above freezing and milder as we head into the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

The short-lvied quieter weather came to an end late last night into early this morning as a quick-hitting system slides through the region, bringing a return to more active weather to start the day. Overall, still dealing with a pretty marginal setup, with decent warm air advection in place and a tricky thermal profile, especially across eastern Upper with temperatures expected to be just below the freezing mark, but warm through the morning... Thinking is still that mainly wet snow will be had up that way (with precipitation already starting as snow), with up to 3 inches possible across Chippewa County, tapering to an inch or less across the Tip of the Mitt where sleet looks like it could mix in at times. Freezing rain/ drizzle is still a concern around the Straits area this morning and far northern Lower/ far southern eastern Upper, with temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark (thinking any ice accumulations should be limited to a glaze or less). Across the rest of the northern Lower, soundings show that this looks primarily like a light rain event (with perhaps freezing rain/ drizzle trying to make an appearance down into the Tip of the Mitt towards Alpena) with minimal overall accumulations. As better forcing slides out of the region through the morning leaving perhaps a light drizzle behind, the bigger story becomes the temperature response as they climb above freezing, with eastern Upper and the Straits region slower to respond...With any icing expected to melt in the morning with temperatures warming above freezing eventually. Highs today look to reach the upper 30s across eastern Upper and low to mid 40s across Northern Lower, warmest across southern portions of northeast Lower where low 50s even look possible.

This warming trend carries into the start of the weekend as upstream ridging continues to build in. Saturday looks like another fairly mild day, with highs well into the upper 30s to low 40s across eastern Upper and low 40s to even low 50s across northern Lower. A cold front sags south through the area Saturday night, bringing with it another chance for a few rain and snow showers/ mix of both. Moisture looks limited, but as the previous forecaster said, models don't seem to be handling this system all too well... something to watch in the coming forecast cycles. Behind the front, temperatures take a slight step back for Sunday into Monday, but still look to remain near to above freezing for most during the day (aside from Upper, which may hang closer to the low 30s). Northwest flow sticks around aloft, so can't rule out a few additional weak disturbances bringing periodic chances for light precipitation. By Tuesday, temperatures look to moderate a bit again as high pressure continues to build in from the west.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

A mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow ongoing across much of northern Michigan will depart to the east over the next several hours. Until then, MVFR/IFR conditions with low ceilings and visibility drops are expected across areas where precip is falling. MVFR/IFR CIGs will linger behind the system after it passed through the morning, but current expectation is that low clouds will scatter out this afternoon -- bringing VFR conditions back for a time into tonight. MVFR/IFR CIGs look to build back in again later tonight with the potential for LIFR CIGs across interior northern lower.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.