textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures continue

- Scattered showers late tonight into Saturday, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Upstream shortwave trough over the northern Plains will move quickly southeast into the southern Great Lakes later tonight into Saturday, bringing increasing precipitation chances. Precipitable water increases toward 1.0" late tonight with showers becoming more numerous over portions of northern lower by late evening into the overnight hours. The deepest moisture and forcing slide along and south of M-72 tonight and this is where we will see the greatest shower coverage. The shortwave continues moving through the area on Saturday with a 925-850mb theta-e ridge axis extending from Saginaw Bay northwest into the higher terrain of northern lower. Steepening mid level lapse rates during the afternoon hours with daytime heating, combined with the deeper moisture and enhanced low level convergence, will increase coverage of showers/storms across parts of northern lower. Although the best instability parameters and kinematics sit well south of our area, skinny CAPEs to 600-800 j/kg will likely result in a few thunderstorms. With relatively low freezing levels around 7-8K, small hail would be possible with some of the stronger storms. Severe potential looks low overall. Any shower/storm activity will end quickly Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating and drier air working into the area from the west. Patchy fog possible Saturday night.

Northern Michigan gets "squeezed" between systems on Sunday with an upper low north of Superior and a stronger area of low pressure riding along a frontal boundary across the northern Ohio Valley. Drier air and subsidence across our area leading to partly to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. We will likely see an increase in clouds over southern areas during the afternoon as that low pressure system passes to our south. The northern fringe of the precipitation from that system to our south may skirt far southern parts of our area Sunday night with a shower threat (M-55 and points south), otherwise dry.

A fast and active northern jet stream will bring additional shortwaves into the Great Lakes this upcoming week as troughiness and below normal temperatures continue across northern Michigan. Best rain chances appear to be toward midweek but the timing and placement of these shortwaves can be difficult in this type of flow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 548 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Diminishing high based cumulus early this evening gives way to some increasing mid and lower level clouds from west to east overnight into Saturday morning as a weak waves approaches the region. Trends support cigs remaining elevated enough across most of northern Michigan to keep VFR conditions. One exception appears to be at KMBL with some support for the development of MVFR producing cigs early Saturday morning. A few light rain showers are likely to fall out of these increasing clouds later tonight, especially at KMBL (and perhaps KTVC). Increasing cumulus deck anticipated on Saturday, some of which may eventually produce more showers and embedded thunderstorms ...although latest trends support much of this activity remaining inland from our taf locations. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347- 348.