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KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds this evening into tonight, especially across the Eastern UP, with a possible burst of snow/rain before transitioning to lake effect snow. Cold for the weekend.

- Lingering lake effect snow showers; swath of accumulating snowfall possible later Saturday into Saturday night, especially toward the M- 55 corridor and south.

- Potentially unsettled (wintry??) period from Wednesday and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST (through Sunday)...

Omega block starting to break down over the Pacific as upper low retrogrades into north-central Canada. Ridging still holding on across the western US...and troughing across the east. 140kt upper jet rounding the ridge across central Canada and into the Upper Midwest, with a nice PV swirly spinning over central Canada heading ESE-ward toward the Upper Great Lakes this morning. More notable baroclinic leaf developing over the southeastern US with some energy crossing through the southern portion of the flow with a much better moisture tap off the Gulf...and troughing still lingering over New England. Aforementioned PV swirly driving a 992mb surface low across Manitoba/Ontario with strong cold advection through the column, esp in the low-levels helping to buckle the thermal gradient and further develop the surface response with this system...though steering flow aloft is more progressive...and attm, bulk of the response (aside from strengthening southwesterly flow into the Great Lakes) is to our north across Ontario, where better forcing is located.

Expect our swirly (clipper) to zip across southern Ontario and swing across Lake Superior this evening, dragging a cold front into the region with sharply colder air behind it for the weekend. Potentially unpleasant evening with a burst of rain/snow with the front across the EUP in particular this evening, along with very gusty winds. Temperatures fall well below freezing and remain there through the weekend. Cold front stalls out just to our south on Saturday, along which some additional energy looks to ride and potentially trigger some additional snowfall, particularly across the central portion of the state (with some question on how far north it gets). Cold air hangs out into the weekend as surface high settles into the central Plains to our west...leaving largely northerly flow in place here...with potential lake effect snow showers hanging on. Expect sub-zero lows through the weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS (through Sunday)...

Strong Gusty Winds This Evening...Snow squally?...Have concerns winds this evening will end up stronger than earlier thinking. Post- fropa cold advection tapping into a 40+kt 850mb low level jet should easily get us to wind advisory criteria (45mph gusts), particularly across the EUP where W/NW winds will be enhanced coming off Lake Superior...though do have concerns these winds will spread further southward, spilling into northern Lower tonight...and will opt to expand wind advisory into the Tip of the Mitt. Of particular note for the EUP is the sharp change in the pressure change expected with fropa, i.e., strong isallobaric gradient, which has a tendency to boost winds above expectations within a few hours, give or take, of fropa...though there's really no way attm to discern how much of a boost that will be. That being said...I am personally having some flashbacks to December 20, 2025, when we had a clipper with a potent isallobaric gradient come through that ended up boosting top wind gusts above 60mph in a handful of locations (expectations had been somewhere in the realm of 35-45mph, if memory serves); can't say for sure that will happen again, but it does leave me concerned that it could. Do have some concerns about some (snow) squally activity this evening as the front tracks through...though accumulations will depend on how quickly the changeover occurs. Any wet spots from today will certainly refreeze tonight, setting up potential for some slick areas overnight into Saturday.

Snow Saturday...Looking like low-levels will try to dry out over the southern half of the area to start the day, which suggests things could start out quiet...except for the EUP where some northwest flow lake effect should be ongoing. More persistent bands could certainly put down a couple inches or perhaps a little more...with some of the hi-res prob guidance suggesting a few inches of snow isn't out of the question by Saturday morning/afternoon across the EUP. Does appear winds should veer northerly with time in the afternoon, which should shift the lake effect around a bit.

Synoptic snowfall event looks to begin in the afternoon/evening and hang on into the overnight as a subtle bit of energy swings through the Upper Midwest along what's left of the boundary from tonight...and think that deformation/fgen will be the primary driver behind this snow event...which should result in a swath of heavier snowfall across some portion of the area (perhaps portion(s)...if we get secondary fgen maxima as some guidance seems to suggest attm). The snowfall forecast for Saturday/Saturday night, then, is a low- confidence, potentially moderate/high-impact, with quite a bit of bust potential, pending the position of the narrow fgen processes... and guidance has definitely been struggling with the position of this for the last several runs. Current trend in probabilistic guidance is trending the snowfall maximum somewhere in the vicinity of the US-10 corridor, and perhaps as far north as M-55 or so...though bulk of the precip attm appears to remain across southern Michigan where more moisture will be present. Think we could have some lake enhancement, too, as the deeper moisture slips in over ongoing lake processes.

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...

Potentially unsettled (wintry??) period from Wednesday and beyond:

A definitive pattern shift in the offing next week. Starting Monday/Tuesday with several air streams consolidating over central/eastern North America; Great Lakes under the influence of the northern branch of this consolidated flow which is a mix of maritime/continental polar air though the coldest air expected to remain north. Short wave trough in the southern branch emerges over the Plains during midweek...height rises will push the northern branch flow to the north and allow for southwesterly flow in the southern branch to focus on the Great Lakes for Thursday/Friday. Short wave energy getting kicked out the southern branch will result in a more active pattern for the Thursday/Friday time frame. Some return flow kicks in Monday in the wake of an anticyclone passage...followed up by a bit of a washed-up boundary dropping south Tuesday. Timing of southern branch energy and a northward push of warmer air is up in the air for midweek and beyond...but the setup looks more like an overrunning event with easterly boundary layer flow. Arctic high to the north does give some pause and thermodynamic trends will have to be watched for precipitation type issues Thursday. The spread in the guidance temperature is pretty large...for example interquartile range for GLR high temperatures Thursday ranges from 33 to 47. So will call it a seasonable period from a temperature standpoint for the outer periods of the forecast and a rainy/wintry mix end to the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 536 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

First concern is widespread low level wind shear this evening, with this shear ending quickly later this evening as core of low level jet rotates east. However, gusty west and northwest surface winds will continue through the early overnight, at times nearing 35 to 40 knots. Northwest winds gradually diminish on Saturday. VFR conditions into the early overnight with just some passing high and mid level clouds. Lake clouds develop later tonight into Saturday, perhaps bringing some higher end MVFR conditions at both KCIU and KPLN, with any lower cigs likely mixing out some by Saturday afternoon. Trends support VFR conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies at the other taf locations through Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ086>088-095>098. MARINE...None.