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KEY MESSAGES

- Small chances for precipitation Friday/elevated fire danger potential.

- Warming trend through the weekend and into next week/more elevated fire danger Saturday?

- More unsettled weather next week with thunderstorm potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale flow pattern features a departing short wave trough heading toward the east coast...short wave ridging extending from the southern Plains northeast across the upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes...and a couple of Pacific-origin short wave troughs farther upstream with the lead wave moving across the northern Rockies. Short wave ridging moving into Wisconsin/ Michigan has plenty of dry air air with it. Low level thermal troughing getting replaced by warm advection with a sharp thermal ridge/steeper mid level lapse rates spanning the Plains ahead of the approaching short wave trough. Elongated surface high pressure from James Bay south through the upper Lakes and down into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Eastern short wave trough will close off and lift northeast along the northeast coast and into Atlantic Canada Friday/Saturday. Approaching northern Rockies short wave trough lifts northeast with weaker height falls across the upper Lakes Friday...and another sheared out vorticity center/jet max across the region Saturday. But the larger scale pattern starts to buckle this weekend with troughing digging into the Great Basin which will push heights upward across the eastern CONUS Sunday. 582dam 500mb heights into Lower Michigan Monday which is above the the percentile relative to climatology for mid May. This basic idea of western troughing/flat eastern ridging should hold through Tuesday before height falls advance eastward. Surface high pressure over the region today gives way tonight allowing for southerly return flow to develop Friday ahead of a weakening cold front that is losing its eastward push as main dynamics/height falls lift northeast into Ontario. Secondary ripple passing north of the Great Lakes Saturday will try and nudge another east-west oriented boundary into northern Michigan Saturday night/Sunday. This boundary will have a say in Sunday sensible weather (both temperature and precipitation)...but a stronger surge of warmth looks to be in the offing for Monday which may also be accompanied by more unsettled weather (thunderstorms) for the first part of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Small chances for precipitation Friday/elevated fire danger potential: Tail end of the short wave trough lifting northeast into Ontario will swing across the forecast area Friday morning. Narrow band of moisture ahead of this feature may kick off some shower mainly across eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt counties but at this point looks pretty minimal from a QPF standpoint. A potentially larger concern is elevated fire danger with increasing winds from the south/southwest with gusts 20-30+mph. Dew points will likely be coming up a bit so relative humidity will ultimately depend on how warm we can get which may be tempered by early cloud cover; going with highs in the 65-70 degree range which results in minimum relative humidity values below 35 percent east of the I-75 corridor.

Warming trend through the weekend and into next week/more elevated fire danger Saturday? The fire danger potential for Saturday has a couple of elements to it. There is the chance there will be some showers around Saturday morning...and with higher dew points moving in will need to clear out and heat things up to get relative humidity values down to a respectable level. Assuming that occurs highs should get to around 80 degrees inland from Lake Michigan... which would push minimum relative humidity values down below 30 percent. This combined with another day of gusty south/southwest winds (though probably not quite as strong as Friday) will result in another afternoon of increased fire danger. Temperatures may be a bit cooler Sunday especially across eastern Upper with secondary cold front arriving Saturday night...but trends still support above normal highs Sunday. Monday could be the real warm day with the front getting pushed back to the north. Looking at widespread highs in the 70s across eastern Upper and 80s in northern Lower.

More unsettled weather next week with thunderstorm potential: Secondary cold front settles across northern Michigan and extends into northern portions of Wisconsin/Minnesota Sunday. Heating and moisture pooling along this boundary will increase the threat for convection developing across at least northwest Lower Sunday afternoon...spreading north/northeast Sunday night. More thunderstorm chances Monday especially afternoon/evening as warmer and more humid air mass spreads in. Best focus will be across the upper Midwest but will see if some kind of linear storm mode moves into Lower Michigan Monday evening. SPC Day 5 (Monday) 15% severe probability extends into Lower Michigan.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through Friday morning. High pressure over Michigan moves east tonight...winds will pick up from the south/southwest Friday morning and gusting over 20kts. Increasing Ac/As moves in from the west Friday morning... possibly some showers around KCIU/KPLN.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.