textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and occasional thunderstorms through Saturday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible early to mid next week.

- Heat and humidity build next week with 90s possible by late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave upstream across the Upper Midwest this evening will continue to swing southeast through the night. Building instability and thunderstorm development to the west across the UP of MI and vicinity will track southeast across the big Lake. Expect some thunderstorm coverage possible across portions of the area tonight as a result, most guidance showing a general weakening trend with this activity. Still, its becoming increasingly likely a pretty spatially encompassing line of showers and storms moves from west/northwest to east through the region later tonight. Instability is generally pretty low with modest shear in place, but the overall storm mode and development life cycle of this convection suggests a lack of a real severe threat. Consequently, NWS Gaylord's area of interest is only in general thunder via SPC's outlook through tonight. Locally moderate rainfall would be possible in this scenario. Cannot rule out a few areas of fog over land given we actually see decent rains, worth monitoring that and the convective trends.

Nevertheless, short wave will continue to push southeast through Saturday, with some showers and storms possible overnight regardless of the activity moving out over the Lake. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours Saturday, given the building instabilty and potential low level convergence near Saginaw Bay and vicinity. That being said, some guidance is quite low on this potential. Currently, we are in general thunder for Saturday mainly across northeast lower MI. By Sunday, heights build aggressively, and so while slightly "cooler" during the first half of the weekend, we quickly rebound the second half with drier conditions.

Slow moving negatively tilted short wave moves northeast early to mid next week. Sfc high pressure slides east across the Northeast, resulting in southerly return flow and a surge of a rich PW airmass. Consequently, showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Generally weak flow aloft will limit severe potential, but subtleties will need to be watched. Another surge of humidity is expected mid to late week as well, with dewpoints flirting with 70 degrees while temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thus, heat risk rises by late next week. Caveat to the forecast high temperatures will certainly be the shower and thunderstorm coverage. There is also plenty of energy digging into the Plains by the end of next week as well that could thrown a curve ball in the forecast. Regardless though, heat and humidity build through the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Cloud cover will improve breifly this afternoon and evening followed by -SHRA and -TSRA redevelopment tonight, resulting in mostly MVFR CIG's and VSBY's. Precipitation departs to the east overnight followed by low level moisture lowering ceilings to IFR and periodically LIFR into early Saturday morning. Conditions are expected to improve throughout the day Saturday, eventually returning all sites to VFR around the end of the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.