textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- High impact lake effect snow and strong wind event will commence across northern Michigan this evening into Friday. Event snowfall totals of 6-12", localized 12-18", and wind gusts of 35-50+ mph are expected.

- Another chance for accumulating snow later Saturday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 338 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc low and cold front will continue to move to the east Wednesday morning with a band of showers working northeast across northern MI. As the upper low center moves across northern MI during the afternoon and evening, precipitation will begin to fill in once again. Behind the upper and sfc low pressure systems, colder air will filter into northern lower and eastern upper from west to east, quickly changing any rain over to snow. Lake enhanced snows along with lake banded snows will develop during the overnight hours, focus being Gaylord and points west and south, along with portions of eastern upper. Along with the snow developing, moderate to heavy at times, the cold advection on the back edge of the system will result in gusty conditions, with values 30 to 45 mph, localized 50 mph gusts through tonight. The combination of falling snow and strong gusty winds will lead to dangerous travel this evening and into tonight.

By 7AM Thanksgiving morning, an average of 3 to 6 inches of snow will be possible from Gaylord and points south and west, locally higher. Snow and blowing snow will be ongoing during this time, with plenty more to come during the day on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 338 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Thursday and Friday:

Main focus will be of the ongoing lake effect snow event on Thursday. Tight pressure gradient continues across the region, resulting in continued 30 to 40 mph gusts through the day on average. A dominant northwest band or two of lake effect appears likely, with embedded broader snows possible within the snow belts. Some pieces of hi-res guidance suggest the balance between the over lake instability, low level wind fields, and Lake Superior to Michigan connection will sustain a dominant and intense long lived lake effect band across Antrim/Kalkaska counties, and downstream across Crawford/Roscommon counties. If this materializes on Thanksgiving day with only little waffling or shifting, total snow amounts in excess of 18" would not only be possible but probable within a narrow corridor through the end of the event. A broader area of ~5-10"/6-12" will be possible across the snowbelts, with amounts varying wildly in direct proportion to the resonance time of the more robust snow band(s). Generally speaking, the lake effect machine continues through the day on Thanksgiving and into the overnight hours, before slowly decreasing both in coverage and intensity through the day on Friday. Main concerns continue to be the moderate to heavy snowfall totals, in addition to the strong winds combined with falling snow resulting in blowing and drifting snow, low visibility, and dangerous travel through the day and into the night on Thanksgiving. Hazardous to dangerous travel will remain possible for brief periods even in areas outside/downstream of the traditional snow belts, regardless of the actual snowfall totals due to rapidly reduced visibilities. Blowing and drifting snow will compound already dangerous travel.

The only consideration in regards to the current hazards would be if there needs to be an upgrade for any location downstream of one of the dominant northwest lake effect bands, specifically Ogemaw. Do not have confidence in that feature penetrating that far inland with significant snows at this time, and thus, hazards will remain largely the same for the time being.

Weekend:

Deterministic and ensemble guidance agree with an increasing chance for accumulating this weekend. This event will likely be more area wide, with several inches of additional snow possible. ENS guidance generally has medium to high probabilities for 3 inches or more of snow this weekend across much of northern MI for reference. Behind this next snow event and low pressure system, the coldest airmass of the season is likely, with highs in the 20s and lows single digits to low teens.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Powerful low pressure system to continue to sweep through N. MI through tonight. Expect S/SSE winds ahead of a front this afternoon, with shift to W/NW behind and significantly stronger winds late afternoon through overnight (sustained 20-30kt, gusts 40-50kt or greater (PLN, CIU) to go light/variable for a time before also dramatically switching to sustained 15-20kt, gusts 30-40kts overnight. Any rain/mix showers will turn over to all snow this late afternoon/evening; widespread burst of snow this evening to transition to intense WNW/NW flow lake effect bands tonight into Thursday, esp after 12z. Expect lower visbys Thurs with snow/blowing snow...possibly as low as 1/4SM (esp in the ACB/TVC to HTL corridor Thursday with potential very intense snow band).

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-086>088- 095>097-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018-023-024-029-035. Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025-031. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ021-022-027-028-033-034-086-087-095-096-099. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ026-032. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ088. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344. Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ345-346. Gale Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ345- 346. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.