textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow showers tonight, esp near the coasts...

- Cold Monday into Monday night...

- Clipper system to bring more snow Tuesday into Wednesday, with active weather continuing into late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging across the western US...and resultant high pressure across the central US...oozing all the way down to the Gulf coast; various niblets digging down the BCZ through the MS Valley toward the OH Valley resulting in continued cold advection; NNW flow through the length of the MS Valley tapping northern Canadian air (-20C at 850mb). General troughing across the eastern US...with an annoying ridge over Ontario/Quebec, blocking the flow for our area attm. Bulk of the moisture is trapped along the SE US coast ahead of BCZ and attendant surface cold front stretching from Mexico to SC...with a loose connection to lingering upper low and attendant surface reflection over Lake Huron, with some lingering synoptic moisture (pwat this morning of 0.26in here at APX, which is closer to normal for mid/late Feb). Snowfall continues to linger across northern MI today as energy continues to wrap around the back of the upper low.

Ridging to build in tonight into Monday...though not before additional niblets swing around that upper low in our vicinity...which could keep a threat of better snows near the Lake Huron coast. Surface high pressure moves in later Monday into Monday night, setting up some potential for a chilly night...but warm advection will already be on our doorstep by Monday night/Tuesday. This will be associated with a clipper set to track across Michigan Tuesday night...which will bring our next shot of widespread snow. Clipper slowly exits Wednesday, and flow could turn a bit nebulous/col-y behind this...with signals for a BCZ to stall out across the OH Valley. A niblet of energy will set off a surface low along this BCZ going into Thursday, though attm, appears the bulk of the impact with this will remain largely to our south across southern Michigan. Beyond this...looks like some warm advection could return for the end of the week...ahead of another potential clipper for the weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lingering snow today/tonight... Upper low pinwheeling over Lake Huron will keep the moisture around the eastern half of the area in particular through tonight; expect things should begin to improve over the western half of the area...though with cooling temps aloft, N/NNW flow lake effect should be in play for the immediate coastline of Lake MI, even though moisture aloft should be stripping out there. Not impossible some areas could see another 1-3 inches of snow by morning, perhaps locally a little more where the better lake effect focuses (probably downwind of GT Bay and/or downwind of the various bays of western Leelanau county and Benzie county on the west side... and across Presque Isle county on the east side). Winds on the increase this afternoon into tonight, sustained 15-20kts, combined with what should be a fluffier snow (thermal profiles largely hanging in the DGZ as we cool off) suggests poor visibility and likely poor road conditions tonight into perhaps the Monday morning commute, esp for any of those more east-west oriented roads (US-23 between the Straits and Alpena being one of them).... not to mention temperatures dropping well below freezing tonight across the whole area should lead to slick spots where wet spots refreeze. Will focus winter weather advisory on the coastal areas, however, where impacts should be greater.

Cold tonight through Monday Night...cold air mass oozing in will result in a much colder air mass than we've gotten used to...with lows tonight dropping into the teens and perhaps single digits...though certainly not a radiational cooling event, given the strengthening pressure gradient in place. This being said...brisk northerly winds tonight will result in sub-zero wind chills, especially from the middle-fingers of northern Lower up into the EUP, coldest early in the morning, when wind chills could drop below -10F north of the Mighty Mac...though wind chills at or below zero could certainly linger through much of the day. Highs Monday expected to top out in the teens to lower 20s, well below normal for this time of year. Think we will also have to watch Monday night lows, given that we could have a better shot at radiational cooling as surface high tries to slip overhead...and we will already be starting out the day in the teens above zero. A normal diurnal temp swing of 15F would put lows near or just below zero, and the typical cold spots could fall further. Clouds should be on the increase from the west Monday night...though recent guidance is a little slower in bringing this in...which could favor the colder night idea.

Midweek Clipper System...guidance seems to be hinting at this system coming in during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. Looks like the upper trough could become negatively tilted as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes...which suggests this system could pack a little more of a punch if it occurs overhead. Combined with a moist atmosphere and potential for weaker stability aloft...think this system could be a decent snowfall producer...especially noting some guidance soundings suggest a reasonably deep layer in the DGZ...supporting the idea of bigger/fluffier flakes and higher SLRs. While it appears the bulk of the snow may be focused across the EUP/N. Lower...east/southeast low- level flow ahead of the system could support the idea of lake enhancement off Lake Huron...and further boost snowfall totals east of I-75. Still a fair bit of uncertainty in how this will evolve...with some prob guidance hinting at a track more across northern Lower, and others favoring the EUP/Tip of the Mitt more...but do have moderate confidence in seeing at least a few inches of new snow by the middle of the day Wednesday. Think additional lake effect could follow behind this.

Active Weather Continues into Late Week...baroclinic zone behind the clipper looks to drape somewhere in the vicinity of the OH Valley Wednesday into Thursday...with another niblet of energy crossing the central US/MS Valley to drive additional cyclogenesis somewhere along it. Still a lot of questions attm in how much the niblet will dig and therefore how amplified the pattern will be/how far north the system will get Thursday. Not clear yet by any means, though attm...would think southern Michigan has a better shot at seeing impacts from this than us. Beyond this...need to keep an eye on another system tracking across the central Canadian Prairies for late week into the weekend; even more questions surround that one attm, though it could support the idea of a milder/more normal-for- late-February end to the work week if it verifies.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

MVFR, with periods of IFR, conditions expected from low clouds and lake-induced snow showers at KAPN, KTVC, and KMBL tonight into early Monday morning. Gradual improvement at these locations on Monday, with VFR conditions developing later in the morning and afternoon. KPLN and KCIU should experience mostly VFR conditions through the period. Gusty north-northwest winds will continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for MIZ018-020- 024>026-030-031. MARINE...None.