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KEY MESSAGES

- Wind-driven snows to bring significant travel impacts Friday morning.

- Confidence continues to increase that a major winter storm will impact the Great Lakes later Saturday night into early next week...likely bringing widespread amounts of mixed precipitation and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Active northern stream flow continues to impact much of central NOAM early this afternoon...with our immediate attention directed at rather robust wave digging rapidly southeast within this flow across the northern Plains. Weak shortwave ridging out ahead of this wave spreading into our area at the moment, bringing with it increasing amounts of sunshine and gradually putting an end to weak lake processes. Much more Canada airmass influence, as evident by current temperatures in the 20s and 30s...with these values running several degrees below specific normal values for the middle of March.

Upstream wave and attendant rather vigorous surface response will slide rapidly east across our area later tonight and Friday morning, with widespread accumulating snow and gusty winds the result. Post- system reprieve is a short one to start the weekend, with rapid northern stream amplification via dual 140+ knot upper level jet cores looking to drive a significant to major winter storm across the Great Lakes Sunday into early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Initial emphasis centers on snow amounts, gusty winds, and travel impacts (headline considerations) later tonight into Friday. Focus then quickly shifts to what again could be a major winter weather event later this weekend into early next week.

Details:

One rather impressive compact system to visit the Northwoods later tonight into Friday, with well advertised sub 990mb surface low looking to cut directly across northern Michigan Friday morning. Forcing is intense, with core of upper level jet driven diffluence centered directly above strong isentropic upglide on nose of 60+ knot low level jet. Guidance derived soundings show intense lift in and perhaps just a bit above the favored dendritic growth layer, supporting efficient snow growth. Transient frontogenetical forcing within low/mid level baroclinic axes will also enhance snow rates at times. Upshot to the above...looking at a well organized band of snow to spread rapidly east into our area later tonight into Friday, with a period of intense snowfall exceeding an inch per hour likely early Friday morning. Still some discrepancy on where the heaviest snow amounts will reside, but overall trends are a bit further south with eventual dry-slot influences...targeting areas of far northern lower Michigan for heaviest totals. Rapid dry slot advancement and a bit warmer thermal profiles (will likely even see a transition to rain after main core of snow shield pivots east) will focus lowest snow totals along the Lake Michigan collar counties south of Grand Traverse Bay. Expect snow amounts to vary from 2 to 5 inches along and south of M-55...with amounts of 4 to perhaps 8 inches to the north. Although best isallobaric component to drive gusty winds will remain across southern Michigan as the low passes overhead, still looking at winds gusting in excess of 30 mph at times...only further exacerbating the hazardous driving conditions Friday morning. Most intense snowfall rates exit stage right rather quickly later Friday morning and afternoon. May see a period of some northwest flow lake enhancement later Friday into Friday evening, although quick loss of both synoptic forcing and moisture support should throttle back significantly on this lake contribution.

Enjoy the break later Friday night into Saturday, with nearly all available deterministic and their associated ensemble suite continuing to advertise a significant to major winter weather event impacting the region later Saturday night right through Monday. Understand what follows in nothing more than current guidance prognostics and subject to many changes as this event gets closer: Anyway, northern stream flow amplification looks impressive indeed, with completely coupled dual 140+ knot upper level jet cores driving deep mid level trough development across the central Plains on Sunday, with this troughing going negative tilt and potentially closing off as it pushes into the area Sunday night into Monday. Plenty of moisture for this system to work over, with combination of Pacific and Gulf of America moisture sending precipitable water values to over an inch across the southern Lakes...a value that is 2 to 3 standard deviations above the mean for this time of year. Initial intense isentropic upglide/deep layer moisture convergence driven precipitation later Saturday night and Sunday gives way to equally impressive deformation and trowal driven precipitation Sunday night into Monday as deep low pressure pivots northeast into the Great Lakes. While guidance agreement is rather exceptional on the above, exact location of intense thermal gradient and where the above forcing mechanisms are maximized remains much more uncertain... with both snow and freezing rain location and amounts sensitive to both. With all that said, if current trends do indeed hold, parts of northern Michigan could easily see snow amounts well in excess of a foot by later Monday, and unfortunately significant amounts of freezing rain as well. Depth of low (some progs show sub 980mb final outcomes) would also yield quite the wind event. Again, still much too early for any real specifics on this system, but one that all should continue to monitor in the coming days.

Below normal temperatures with additional chances for light snow showers at times continues into the middle portions of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 116 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Largely VFR to perhaps marginal MVFR prevailing this afternoon, with an axis of pesky -SHSN scattered around PLN and APN... a trend that will carry through the afternoon and taper by the evening. With any -SHSN passing over either of these TAF sites, temporary reductions to MVFR or IFR are possible (mainly VSBY). VFR is restored through the evening into tonight, with increasing high cloud ahead of the next system. Better slug of moisture builds in later tonight from west to east. As such, anticipating deteriorating CIGs and VSBYs to IFR and LIFR, as SN builds into the region and sub-one-mile VSBYs prevail. LLWS is possible later tonight... first favoring the northern lower TAF sites, and eventually spreading into CIU later Friday morning. Some questions regarding the intensity and duration of any LLWS as there is potential for those strong winds right off the deck to just mix to the surface before sunrise. Nonetheless, anticipating gusty E to NE winds through much of the period, flipping SW to W at PLN, TVC, and MBL late in the period... with steadier SN transitioning to SHSN, perhaps mixing with RA at MBL and TVC.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for MIZ016>018-021>024-086>088-095>099. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.