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KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of light freezing rain/drizzle possible late tonight and Sunday morning across parts of the area.

- Significant and potentially high impact winter storm set to visit the area Sunday into Monday evening, bringing with it accumulating snow and very gusty winds. Near blizzard conditions definitely on the table by Monday...especially in our famed snow belt locations.

- Colder with additional chances for more lake enhanced snow through the remainder of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Pretty impressive mid/upper level ridging centered directly above the Northwoods early this afternoon, with its surface reflection centered across the eastern Great Lakes up into southeast Canada. While the above has kept the area largely dry today, rather abundant moisture trapped below sharp low level subsidence inversion keeping the clouds locked in across northern Michigan. Developing return flow and an already seasonably mild overhead airmass being partially offset by nearly complete lack of solar insolation...but still seeing temperatures running at least a few degrees above specific normal values for today's date (readings in the 20s to middle 30s).

Changes begin to take shape tonight as low level return flow further intensifies on backside of retreating surface high. Vertical depth of low level moisture column increases with time on nose of intensifying low level jet within this return flow environment... setting the stage for increasing precipitation chances later tonight into Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main concern is addressing light freezing rain/drizzle potential later tonight into Sunday morning.

Details:

Dry weather continues into this evening (maybe a few flurries at times) under those abundant low level clouds. Isentropic upglide and disjointed vertical moisture advection ramps up later tonight within developing low level jet. Perusal of guidance derived soundings show low level moisture increasing in depth...with a mid level dry wedge remaining below increasing higher level moisture. Low level moisture column is completely saturated, relatively deep, and extends through an impressive elevated warm nose by late tonight into Sunday. Depth of this moisture and evidence of wind shear at the top of the moist column definitely supports the development of patchy drizzle or pockets of very light rain by early Sunday. Ignoring our typical nocturnal temperature response with those clouds and that return flow suggests temperatures will actually slowly rise later tonight. Unfortunately, it still appears surface temperatures will be at or a bit below freezing when this light precipitation develops... especially across central/northeast lower Michigan. Further slow warming of the surface temperatures should put an end to freezing rain concerns from south to north heading through Sunday morning into the afternoon. Not expecting a ton of icing, but no doubt could see some travel impacts...especially on those secondary and untreated road surfaces. Definitely something to monitor for those traveling early Sunday. Otherwise, Sunday looks like a raw and dreary day with periods of afternoon light rain and drizzle and high temperatures mostly ranging through the 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

All attention to start the long term portion of this forecast directed at evolution of dual Intermountain West waves and equally impressive dual upper level jets. Eventual phasing of these mid level shortwaves across the western Great Lakes in lockstep with intense upper level jet support should drive rapidly deepening low pressure up and across the region Sunday night into Monday. This system has all the support to be a significant and potentially high impact winter storm across the northern Great Lakes, to include very gusty winds and heavy lake enhanced snow by later Sunday night into Monday.

Pattern looks to remain active thereafter with northern Michigan centered under northwest flow aloft. Passing clipper-type systems and much colder weather sets the stage for periodic lake enhanced snow events across the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main focus remains directed at the potential impacts from that Sunday night into Monday system...to include mixed precipitation/heavy snow and gusty winds. Headline considerations will also need to be addressed.

Details:

Definitely one complicated and hence low confidence forecast heading through Sunday night into Monday. Will again rely on pattern recognition as a strong foundation to this forecast. Given strength of jet max and expected merging of dual mid level shortwave troughs...do feel pretty confident we will be looking at a rapidly deepening area of low pressure cutting up across the area Sunday night...reaching vicinity northern Lake Huron with a near or sub 980mb central pressure by sunrise Monday (although admittedly not certain on its exact path across lower Michigan...with still some north/south variation amongst guidance). Unlike what is typical this time of year, preceding airmass is a mild one...with elevated above freezing layer likely punching up across eastern upper Michigan by later Sunday afternoon and early evening. Surface temperatures a bit more tricky heading into Sunday evening...especially for areas north of the big bridge. While feel relatively confident surface readings will be at least a bit above freezing across northern lower Michigan, increasingly gusty northeast winds off the snow-covered Ontario landscape may peg readings right around freezing for eastern upper. This sets up the potential for a period of rather significant freezing rain or sleet during the evening, with a rapid transition to snow through the overnight. As of now, expecting primarily rain Sunday evening for northern lower Michigan, with a rapid transition to snow from southwest to northeast through the overnight. We should be looking at a rather mature and intense trowal within strong deformation on system north-side cold conveyor belt by later Sunday night...with this deep forcing initially targeting upper Michigan before sliding southeast into northern lower Michigan early Monday. Some pretty impressive signatures within this trowal, with strong lift and deep moisture pegged in the favored snow growth zone. Could easily be looking at a prolonged period of 1+ per hour snowfall rates Sunday night into Monday morning across eastern upper, with additional lake enhanced snows Monday afternoon. Some pretty impressive snow probabilities coming out of the ensemble suite across eastern upper Michigan...with greater than 90% probs for at least 8 inches of snow by early Monday evening, and near 70% probs for 12 or more inches.

A bit more uncertainty with regards to snowfall across northern lower Michigan as trowal should be gradually weakening on its southeast journey. However...what is lost with deep layer forcing will likely be compensated some by an increasing north-northwest flow lake component by Monday. While not quite as impressive as eastern upper Michigan, ensemble probs still display the potential, with greater than 60% probs for at least 8 inches of snow by Monday evening across the northwest half of lower Michigan...and even some lower end probs for 12 inches.

Wind is the other concern with this system, with strong cold air advection developing within a very robust surface pressure gradient by early Monday. Frequent gusts up and over 35 mph appear likely Monday, with even stronger winds (over 45 mph) possible near Lake Michigan, Lake Superior, and near Saginaw Bay. Combination of wind and snow will no doubt produce very hazardous travel conditions, with potential for whiteouts at times. Power outages also a distinct possibility, especially from falling damaged limbs from last Spring's historic ice storm.

As we know too well, plenty of time for things to change...and absolutely no doubt the forecast leaving this office will need future adjustments. However, given above and the high impact potential of this system, felt it prudent to heighten the messaging by issuing winter storm watches/warnings and high wind watches where necessary.

Not a whole lot of time spent looking at the remainder of the extended. Pattern does appear to remain active, with passing waves within northwest flow aloft. Much colder conditions expected as we begin to tap into the northern Canada reservoir of Arctic air. Combination of these passing waves and those cold temperatures does support periods of accumulating lake enhanced snow at times through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

MVFR CIGs continue through this afternoon, becoming MVFR to IFR overnight most areas. There is a brief chance for CIGs to lift to VFR this afternoon, but largely should remain MVFR and lower. Southeast winds continue, occasionally breezy. Chance for -RA/-FZRA later tonight into the day on Sunday across terminals, briefly lowering VSBYs. Main concern through this period will be how quickly CIGs lower to IFR and possibly LIFR. While there is a low chance for BR tonight across terminals (more across interior), it could impact VSBYs as well across terminals.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ016>018-021>024-028>030-035-036-042-099. Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for MIZ016>018-020>022-025>027-031-032-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ026-027-032>034-041. High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for MIZ041-042. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for LHZ345>349. Storm Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323- 342-344>346. Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ341. Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for LSZ321.