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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow into this evening across portions of northwest Lower Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan.

- Continued cold through this week, with coldest period Wed night to Fri morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 150 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Clipper system currently crossing the Upper Great Lakes will exit the area to the east by this evening. Another weaker wave will dive into the persistent eastern North American trof by later tonight.

Forecast Details: The light snow on the "warm" side of the clipper will be east of the area shortly. Winds are already trending more westerly behind a lead surface trof, but will quickly become more northwesterly behind the clipper's cold front. These northwest winds will linger through the night. Lake effect snow bands will shift with time, with portions of northwest Lower and eastern Upper Michigan the most likely to be impacted. Expect the snow to largely shut off over the Tip of the Mitt as rapidly expanding ice cover doesn't give much of a fetch over Lake Michigan as the winds shift northwest. Plan to keep ongoing Winter Weather Advisory in place through its planned expiration this evening. While accumulations in the advisory area should not be terribly high (generally 2-4 inches), the gusty winds and small flake size will combine to produce locally poor visibility through the day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 150 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Stagnant ridge west/trof east configuration remains in place across North America through the period. A sharp trof will sink south across the area Thursday into Friday, accompanied by a renewed shot of cold air. Short wave ridging arrives by late in the weekend/early next week and will provide some moderation of temperatures.

Forecast Details: Cold conditions persist until the weekend with highs no warmer than the teens and lows generally in the single digits either side of zero. The coldest conditions are expected Thursday into Friday with the passage of the above mentioned trof. There won't be much moisture for this system to work with, but the cold conditions will keep lake effect snows going. Expanding ice on the Great Lakes will continue to decrease potential over-lake fetch this week and the cold air mass should tend to favor small snow flake size more often than not. Some moderation in temperatures is expected for the weekend, but temperatures will still be cooler than normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 631 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

W/WNW flow lake effect snow showers continue today, enhanced around 15-18z as a wave comes in (esp CIU/PLN/APN)...then again toward 0z...and yet again around 6z. Cigs/visbys outside of snow showers VFR...with drops to IFR and potentially LIFR beneath heaviest snow showers. WNW/W winds sustained 5-15kts gusting 20-30kts today will likely lead to BLSN, which could further reduce visbys even outside of snow showers. CIU/PLN could go light/vrb late tonight as most sites turn WSW after 0z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ020>022-025>027-031-032-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ086. MARINE...None.