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KEY MESSAGES

-Ongoing snowfall departs to the east this morning with potential freezing drizzle today.

-Additional snow, sleet, and mixed precip tracks across the Great Lakes region this Tuesday.

-Warmer temperatures build Tuesday through Friday with increasing probs of storm potential this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 239 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel low-amplitude ridging pattern spanned across the majority of the CONUS will begin to advect warm air into the Great Lakes region today. Current precipitation driven by an embedded shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward today, resulting in a brief drying period behind the clipper this evening.

Forecast Details...

Today...Ongoing quick hitting clipper will centered over Sudbury Ontario this morning. Strongest vorticity will be downstream of the CWA leading to snowfall rates decreasing this morning as it tracks eastward. Accumulations of only an additional tenth or two is expected mainly east of I-75. Warm air advection continues to push low level atmospheric temperature above freezing this morning as shown by a shallow warm nose overhead. As a result...some patchy freezing drizzle remains possible this morning/afternoon. Only a glaze of ice is expected, especially for southwest parts of the CWA.

Tonight...Low level atmospheric moisture will depart the northwoods this afternoon/evening for a brief 4-10hr period before another round of moisture tracks across northern Michigan. 700mb troughing currently lee of the Rockies with enough disheveled vorticity will return chances of light drizzle late overnight followed by more widespread chances during the early long term timeframe. Otherwise overall quiet weather is expected tonight as previously mentioned warm air advection keeps overnight lows in the upper 20s for most locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 239 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Tuesday...Previously mentioned low level vort max will continue to spread across the CWA this Tuesday. The center of low pressure will track through the Michigan/Ohio border, resulting in light disheveled stratiform precip to occupy northern lower. Latest hi-rez guidance keeps the highest probabilities of QPF between 0.10 and 0.15" for most areas while eastern upper willy likely only observe a trace of liquid by Tuesday night. Surface temperatures near freezing and weak low level warm air advection will keep mixed precip in the forecast. Highest probs remain mainly snowfall, but model soundings indicate potential for sleet to mix during the day Tuesday along with patchy freezing rain. Even with mild temperatures and highs in the mid 30s, poor wintry conditions are expected this Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...Midlevel pattern continues low amplitude ridging over the central CONUS through the midweek. H8 temperatures remain near 0C with daytime highs warming to the upper 30s/low 40s. Relatively dry atmospheric condtions keep chances of precip low with surface high pressure building across the central Mississippi Valley.

Friday through Sunday Outlook...500mb shortwave troughing currently over the CONUS Pacific Rim will deepen and progress across the country this week and make its way to the central U.S by Friday. Embedded height disturbances along with developing surface low pressure lee of the Rockies will keep conditions active this weekend with multiple rounds of precip, including multiple p-types. Slight rain chances begin as early as Friday as a stalled boundary stretches through the Ohio Valley, but most impactful storm potential remains on the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. Ensembles still have a bit of disagreement as a developing surface cyclone tracks through the Ohio Vally, but probabilities of deepening low pressure resulting in gusty winds and accumulating snowfall/LES remains likely as we head into mid January.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions as a swath of moderate to heavy snow moves fairly quickly across northern MI. This will be a relatively heavy/wet snow compared to recent events, snow/liquid ratios in the lower teens to near 10:1. Low cigs and patchy fzdz/dz will linger into Monday after the snow exits (MVFR to IFR). Southerly winds increase tonight at the more southern TAF sites (MBL/TVC), otherwise winds are on the light side.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ345- 346.