textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather at times through Friday night, including low thunderstorm chances this afternoon, and rain/snow chances Thursday night & Friday night.

- Cooler/more normal temperatures Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over MN this afternoon with a warm front well to our north across northern Ontario into Quebec. Trailing cold front sits to our west, draped from the western U.P. to southern Lake Michigan into the TN Valley. This boundary will make headway into northern MI this evening, clearing east of the area tonight. Secondary cold front expected to arrive late in the day Thursday before this system shifts east entirely by Friday morning. All in all, occasionally unsettled weather expected through the remainder of the work week before high pressure settles in this weekend. A couple of northern stream waves possible early-mid next week, which may graze the area with additional precip chances.

Forecast Details: Periods of showers are expected to continue this afternoon, with at least low chances for a few embedded pre-frontal thunderstorms given the expectation of a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE in place by later this afternoon/early evening. While not expected to be severe, locally and brief gusty winds in/near thunderstorms may result. Otherwise, showery conditions are expected to persist at times through the day Thursday as low pressure slowly drifts across the northern Great Lakes.

While Thursday will be a good 15-20 degrees cooler than today, even colder temperatures are expected to filter in post secondary cold frontal passage Thursday evening. Lingering synoptic support combined with increasing over-lake instability will likely result in additional lake-enhanced showers Thursday night. Latest trends support rain may mix with or change over to a bit of wet snow, especially across portions of the eastern U.P. and interior higher terrain of northern lower. Suppose minor snow accumulation is possible in some areas (0.5" or less), but ground temperatures should still be pretty warm to limit this. By midday Friday, any remaining showers should be back to all rain with decreasing confidence heading through Friday night as we should eventually be warm advecting, likely bringing an end to any lingering lake effect shower activity. Just how quickly this shuts off remains the question, and if it extends far enough into the evening, suppose that rain could mix back with a bit of wet snow -- again primarily limited to inland areas.

Trending precipication-free for at least a good chunk of the weekend into early next week. High temps Saturday into the 40s rise back into the 50s for Sunday and Monday. Potential exists for a couple of northern stream waves to scrape the area, perhaps as early as Sunday/Monday and again towards the middle of next week. Precip chances with these waves look low, but non-zero.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions currently due to skies generally BKN-OVC AOA 3 kft (KMBL is the exception at 1.5 kft). S/SSE winds of 5 to 12kts with G15 to G20kts will linger through tonight. LLWS at 2kft of 30 to 40 kts will linger through 20z. Winds aloft will slightly weaken, but LLWS of 15 to 25 kts will be present for much of the period. Best timing of -SHRA will align with a FROPA, moving through from SW to NE between 22z and 02z. Winds become SW/W behind this with G20 to 25kts (possibly a 30kt gust). Winds will remain elevated but gradually slacken through the night, becoming generally 5 to 10kts with G10 to 15kts by 14z. VCSH will be present during this time. MVFR/IFR cigs and vis will be present after 00z and linger through the end of the period. A strong FROPA will move through and turn winds NW after 18z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ346-348- 349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.