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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow (E UP) and a wintry mix of precipitation (N lower) expected into early Tuesday.

- Occasional lake effect snow showers linger into midweek.

- Increasing probabilities for above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 213 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, mid-level shortwave ridging now displaced downstream with initial shortwave trough incoming from the northwest -- ahead of parent troughing lagging behind across Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Sfc low pressure following suit into far western Ontario. These features expected to be situated north of Lake Superior by 12z Tuesday. Locally, warm advection continues to ramp up this afternoon coinciding with 120+ kt jet streak encroaching from the west. Warm advection maximized later this evening-tonight with the arrival of the main mid-level wave. Best forcing likely to be focused across the tip of the mitt northward into the eastern UP and on into Ontario, resulting in this being the area favored for most persistent snow over the next 18-24 hours. A wintry mix of precipitation expected over much of northern lower, although confidence is lower than desired in how widespread that becomes and resultant impacts.

Bulk of steadiest precipitation likely to be exiting Tuesday morning. Cold advection to follow, most notably Tuesday afternoon - Tuesday night with lake effect snow showers continuing in spots downwind of the lakes.

Forecast Details: Initial burst of warm advection driven snow ongoing across parts of the eastern UP early this afternoon, scraping the Straits area over the next couple of hours. Latest hi res trends favor this batch of snow exiting stage right by early evening with a relative lull in precip through mid-late evening. Secondary, more impressive, shot of snow expected to fill in late evening through the overnight hours -- again falling steadiest/heaviest across the Straits into eastern upper. Snow accumulations expected to range from 2-6" across the eastern UP, although locally higher amounts not entirely out of the question in any better fgen banding that's able to materialize providing an uptick in snowfall rates. Generally lower amounts of 1-2" anticipated across the tip of the mitt, generally near and north of a line from Pellston to north of Alpena. SLRs generally expected to range from 10-12:1, certainly on the wetter side compared to normal.

Farther south across the bulk of northern lower, uncertainty increases with respect to just how widespread wintry precip becomes, what form is falls in, and of course related impacts. Latest trends support that initial wing of snow scraping parts of the tip of the mitt and far northeast lower over the next couple hours before shifting east (very similar to the E. UP in that respect). By late evening and through the overnight, conceptually speaking, lighter precipitation would be expected to blossom, despite a lack of deep forcing. A warm nose poking in aloft introduces potential for a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Main uncertainty continues to revolve around spatial coverage of this potential wintry mix with latest suite of hi res trends favoring a lack of precip altogether (more scattered in nature). Not sure I can completely buy in to that scenario given simple pattern recognition. Suppose precip over the bulk of northern lower could wind up more drizzly given forecast soundings often lacking saturation through the column. That said, for what precip does materialize over northern lower, freezing rain/drizzle is favored with at least a glaze of ice expected on untreated roads/surfaces, and resultant slick roads/hazardous travel. Tough call on winter weather advisories, with abnormally high bust potential simply given a lack of confidence in precip coverage across northern lower. Will favor the conceptual model and go ahead with an advisory across a chunk of counties south of the bridge (again primarily for icing potential from freezing rain/drizzle), but knowing full well that it's in the realm of possibilities that folks could wake up Tuesday morning to very little issues at all.

Back to something of more confidence, cold advection ramps up behind this system Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with at least scattered lake effect snow showers expected in the typical snow belts of eastern upper and northwest lower. Accumulation looks pretty minor (generally 1" or less thru Tuesday night), but increasingly breezy northwest winds as high as 25 mph may result in a bit of blowing snow and lead to pockets of lowered visibility. High temps late Tuesday morning/midday before CAA really kicks in progged near freezing across much of the area, perhaps several degrees above freezing near the M-55 corridor and near Saginaw Bay.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 213 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Generally light isolated-scattered lake induced snow showers may linger into Wednesday across the snow belts; however, high pressure slides overhead Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which should bring an end to any of this activity. Weak wave upstream on Thursday may produce some light snow across parts of Midwest/Great Lakes -- favored for areas to our southwest across southern WI/northern IL and far southwest MI. Thus, generally tranquil wx conditions anticipated late week into at least the first half of the weekend across northern MI with highs in the 20s on Thursday giving way to moderating temperatures Friday - Sunday with increasing probabilities for much of the area to rise above freezing Saturday/Sunday.

Main longer range uncertainty revolves around the late weekend/early next week time frame as southern stream energy ejects lee of the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region. Myriad of possible solutions with this wave -- majority of ENS guidance keeps potential sensible weather to our south due to rising upper height anomalies across the Great Lakes, but there remains a low probability solution that this wave finds weakness in those heights and amplifies toward the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with potential for messy wintry weather -- certainly a time frame worth monitoring.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wintry precip returning to northern/eastern areas late this evening. This should be mostly snow at CIU/PLN, with IFR vsbys at times at CIU. APN is most likely picking up PL at the moment (ASOS is reporting UP with a relatively high vsby), PL/SN/FZRA are all possible there for a few hours. TVC could see some light spotty -FZRA overnight. Not expecting anything at MBL. Cigs will lower to MVFR across the area Tuesday morning, except IFR at times for CIU.

Sse winds remain somewhat light tonight, becoming gusty from the wnw Tue afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>018- 020>030-033>036-086>088-095>099. MARINE...None.