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KEY MESSAGES

- Low end shower/storm chances through midweek, marginal severe risk Wednesday.

- Increasing shower/storm chances this weekend with temperatures slightly below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Although widespread impactful weather may be limited across the northern Great Lakes much of this week, a still challenging forecast with several impulses in fast west/northwest flow. This results in a myriad of model solutions and lower end precipitation chances through Thursday, largely dominated by mesoscale processes and nebulous forcing. A stronger upper shortwave trough slides toward the Great Lakes this weekend, resulting in higher precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.

The primary instability/moisture corridor remains well to the south of the area the next several days in proximity to a quasi- stationary frontal boundary draped across the northern Ohio Valley. Hints of some remnant convection possibly trying to move toward the area tonight out of Wisconsin. Low confidence in this given waning instability and forcing but at least isolated potential. Areas of fog also possible again tonight. Wednesday features weak flow and likely lake breeze dominated forcing for any convection. This places the best shower/storm chances closer to Lake Huron in northern lower and interior sections of eastern upper. We may also see some scattered convection fire over southern parts of the area along a diffuse trough axis. Favorable shear profiles and some buoyancy, but once again the best moisture/forcing remain well to our south. SPC has us in a marginal severe risk during this timeframe. Additional low end shower/storm chances on Thursday, especially across southern parts of our area (south of M-32).

Return flow around departing high pressure for the weekend, combined with a much stronger upper level shortwave trough and associated surface low, will bring much better shower/storm chances to northern Michigan. Cooler and drier for early next week behind this feature. Overall, temperatures will run near or slightly below normal for the weekend into the first part of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions continue this afternoon with mostly sunny skies across Northern Michigan. Lake breeze processes will cause surface winds to continuously change direction until becoming light and VRB overnight. MVFR cloud cover builds overnight mainly between 0600Z and 1300Z at all TAF sites, while BR and FG development at KMBL will drop VSBY's down to IFR through early Wednesday morning. CIG's quickly dissipate Saturday morning, returning to VFR at all sites through the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.