textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow ends tonight, with additional chances for mostly light precipitation at times the next several days.

- Upward trend on temperatures will continue into the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Stout upper level ridging extending nearly the entire length of western NOAM, with broad longwave troughing downstream of it extending across much of eastern NOAM...including the Great Lakes region. Upper level northwest flow along this ridge/trough interface directed right into northern Michigan. Fast moving subtle shortwave trough within this fast paced flow regime cutting across the Northwoods early this afternoon, kicking off pockets of mostly light snow and some patchy freezing drizzle in the process. However, airmass still plenty cold enough to entice a bit of a lake response, with south-southwest flow this morning directing some better snows into western Mackinac County. Don't have any official numbers, but wouldn't be surprised if areas along and a bit east of the Mackinac/Schoolcraft County line saw at least a few inches of snow this morning.

Only slow progression of long-wave features the remainder of this week into the weekend, with mid level heights slowly increasing across the western Great Lakes. While northwest flow aloft will continue, slow moderation of the low level environment will continue as well, bringing much more Spring-like temperatures across the region to end this week into the start of the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Mostly light precipitation concerns and temperature trends through the period.

Details:

Any lingerings snow (perhaps mixed with freezing drizzle?) expected to end this evening. Next fast moving wave looks to pass southwest of our area overnight. Suppose a few light showers may clip our far southwest, but trends with this system are further southwest with time. High pressure settles overhead Thursday, bringing dry conditions. Overhead airmass continues to modify as colder anomalies punt off to our northeast. Combine this with some increasing amounts of afternoon sunshine, and the stage is set for a nice recovery in temperatures...with afternoon readings ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Increasing mid level heights kicks the best baroclinic axis further northeast with time, likely resulting in bit further north track to our next fast moving shortwave trough and surface low Thursday night into early Friday. Expect best precipitation chances to lay out across the northeast half of our area, with that precipitation taking on a rain/snow mixture across northern lower...and mostly south north of the big bridge. Could see some minor snow accumulations north of the big bridge, but definitely nothing too noteworthy. Tack on a few more degrees Friday, with some of our hardest hit ice storm areas likely pushing into the middle 40s. That warming trend continues into the start of the weekend ahead of a southward sagging cold front which arrives overnight Saturday. Temperatures turn a bit cooler behind this front for Sunday and Monday...likely moderating a bit again for Tuesday. Front does bring the threat for few rain and snow showers along with it, but again, definitely does not look like anything significant.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

SN will gradually taper to areas of BR and -FZDZ this afternoon and into the evening. MVFR to IFR CIGS seem to be the rule... perhaps to that extent for VSBYs too. Anticipating clouds to slowly retreat late tonight into Thursday... with CIGs and VSBYs likely improving to VFR by Thursday morning as well. Breezy S winds taper some and flip W to WNW tonight into Thursday... with just a few 15 to 20kt gusts possible by the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.