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KEY MESSAGES

-Ongoing light snowfall lingers across northern Michigan today.

-Cold overnight lows expected Monday night.

-Overall quiet weather expected this week with chances of snow at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave 500mb troughing currently remains spanning across the majority of North America. Shortwave ridging begins to build this morning over the western CONUS. Surface low pressure over the Ontario Peninsula will begin to break down and move southeast as heights begin to rise over the Great Lakes region. Enough lingering moisture will continue scattered, non-accumulating snow showers today before all moisture becomes scoured out by subsidence aloft Sunday night.

Shortwave ridging over the Northwoods, combined with building high pressure, will keep conditions cold and quiet this Monday through Tuesday morning. The only type of impactful weather during this time period will be the return of some cold temperatures overnight, with lows in the negative single digits. The next round of snow chances for the Great Lakes region returns Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as an Alberta clipper tracks through Michigan. Guidance continues to show the highest probabilities of accumulations around a general 1-4 inches across the CWA.

Conditions remain quiet and mild overall for the rest of the forecast period, as latest guidance depicts the baroclinic zone shifting south of the Ohio Valley. As a result, waves of energy will track south of the Great Lakes region, keeping chances of precipitation minimal for Northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Ongoing light snowfall lingers across northern Michigan today: Previously mentioned low pressure will continue to move southeast today while dissipating. Only a few tenths of snow are expected for most areas as northerly winds spread across the region. Localized higher accumulations remain possible across Presque Isle and Alpena counties, as some lake aggregate troughing creates a convergence zone of lake-enhanced snowfall along western Lake Huron. An additional narrow band of 2-4 inches remain possible along the US-23 corridor through 06Z Monday.

-Cold overnight lows expected Monday night: A weak frontal boundary tracking southward today will return seasonably cold temperatures this Monday. Highs will remain in the teens to low twenties across the CWA before clear skies overnight result in efficient radiational cooling processes. Overnight lows will fall below zero across interior northern lower Michigan, while temperatures for eastern upper start to approach -10. Previously mentioned shortwave ridging will return seasonably normal temperatures for late February, with highs near 30 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

-Overall quiet weather expected this week with chances of snow at times: A quick-hitting clipper Tuesday night remains the only concern in terms of impactful weather through the remainder of the forecast period. Latest guidance depicts sufficient moisture combined with some moderate mid-level lapse rates to provide some convective elements producing light to moderate snowfall at times overnight. Synoptically-driven, widespread snowfall will deliver a general 2-4 inches by Wednesday morning before switching over to lake-effect driven snowfall. Probabilities of precip remain low Thursday through Saturday as moisture continuously tracks south of Michigan.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Still looking at a combination of MVFR to IFR conditions through much of this taf period, with low clouds and periodic snow showers. Some improvement expected by later today as drying begins to kick from the north. Light winds become increasingly gusty out of the northwest this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-020>024-098-099. MARINE...None.