textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and an isolated thunderstorm continue this afternoon.

- Areas of fog, locally dense, tonight.

- Hot and humid Wednesday - Thursday with a couple of rounds of showers/storms possible, bringing renewed chances for locally heavy rain and strong to severe storms.

- Trending cooler Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave ridging noted over the eastern half of NOAM this afternoon with an embedded shortwave trough nearing the crest of that ridge over northern MI. Attendant ~1012mb sfc low pressure situated near southern Lake Michigan. Increased moisture return in advance of this system helping to drive shower/isolated storm production, locally heavy in spots, across the forecast today. However, this wave exits stage right this evening, bringing an end to wet weather chances, at least temporarily.

Mild/moist airmass continues to propel into northern MI tonight on the heels of this wave, with increasing likelihood for areas of fog, dense in spots. Meanwhile, troughing digs across the Intermountain West, aiding to set the stage for hot/humid weather Wednesday and Thursday across much of northern MI. Several waves of showers/storms possible mid-late week as troughing gradually shifts across the nation's midsection, eventually into the Great Lakes late in the work week. Broad troughing set to follow this weekend into at least early next week, with a return to cooler conditions.

Forecast Details: Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this afternoon, largely diminishing toward/near sunset as best forcing shifts off to the east. Some locally heavy rain and low end flooding threat remains possible, especially for those that see repeated heavier showers. Primary concern tonight likely revolves around potential for dense fog and/or drizzle with pockets of significantly reduced visibility, especially after midnight through the Wednesday morning commute time.

Heat/humidity build Wednesday. Early day clouds should give way to at least partly sunny skies for the afternoon with high temperatures favored in the mid-upper 80s area-wide. Best potential for lower 90 degree readings across sections of northeast lower. By mid-late afternoon, given dew points in the mid-60s to near 70 degrees, heat indices likely to top 90 degrees across much of the southern half of the forecast area. Focus later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night revolves around thunderstorm potential. Latest trends favor a healthy instability gradient developing across northern lower by late afternoon with MLCAPE values progged to range from 2,000+ J/kg across southwestern areas to perhaps a couple hundred J/kg across far northeast lower. While much of what occurs locally will likely hinge on upstream development across WI and eastern MN and potential propagation eastward, the potential exists for repeated rounds of at least scattered convection as early as late afternoon/early evening and into the overnight hours. Primary threats will be locally heavy rain/localized flooding if repeated downpours/training storms materialize, along with damaging winds and a low chance for a tornado. All this lines up fairly well with SPC's latest day 2 severe weather outlook and WPC's excessive rain outlook.

Any lingering convective activity later Wednesday night should be east of the forecast area by Thursday morning with midday/afternoon sun aiding in another hot/humid Thursday afternoon. Similar temperatures favored with the highest probabilities for 90+ degree readings across downsloping northeast lower. By late in the day, focus turns to upstream cold front and expected convection out ahead across parts of WI/IA/IL. This activity is expected to make a run toward lower MI late in the day/Thursday night with additional chances for locally heavy rain, and severe thunderstorms given sufficient instability and ample deep layer shear expected to be in place pre-fropa. Again, lots of uncertainties with regards to timing, coverage and placement of strongest storms, but potential is certainty there for another round of impactful weather.

Temperatures cool Friday into the upcoming weekend with generally drier conditions expected to prevail.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Varying non-VFR flight categories this evening trend firmly IFR to LIFR tonight as stubborn BR and FG prevail, along with SHRA, namely at PlN and APN. CIGs improve into the morning, which should trend mainly MVFR. Another disturbance intrudes, which may lead to an initial batch of SHRA and / or TSRA, primarily across the Lake Michigan adjacent TAF sites. The disturbance moves overhead toward the very end of the forecast period, which has the potential to generate a large complex of TSRA, particularly at TVC and MBL, which will likely leave its impacts extended into the next forecast period. Winds light and variable tonight, trending westerly into Wednesday, turning south to southeast in the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.