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KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of lake effect/enhanced snow showers continue through Wednesday night. Primary concern continues to be pockets of significantly reduced visibility.

- Potential for dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills anticipated Wednesday night through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 257 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad troughing remains anchored across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this afternoon, and really for the foreseeable future. Embedded mid-level wave/clipper system is the process of exiting the area downstream this afternoon/evening. However, by very late tonight into Wednesday, another weak perturbation is expected to be trekking south out of Canada into the western Great Lakes.

Forecast Details: Lingering light to pockets of moderate lake enhanced snow showers continue this afternoon through tonight, especially across parts of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan. Loss of synoptic support through the remainder of the afternoon should gradually result in a shrinking footprint of snow showers over the next several hours through this evening with the bulk of remaining snow showers across northwest lower into tonight becoming focused mainly near and west of US-131. For eastern upper, a similar story, although some locally more robust snow shower activity remains possible through tonight north of M-28 from near Paradise/Whitefish Pt, perhaps in/out of the Soo at times. Gusty west-northwest winds through the remainder of the day will continue to bring about further reductions to visibility and poor travel conditions in the snow belts; however, winds diminish after sunset through tonight. Additional snow accumulation through tonight generally an inch of less across much of northwest lower, locally 1- 2" in the typical snow belts of Antrim, Kalkaska and far western Otsego counties. Localized 2-5" amounts near Paradise/Whitefish Pt.

No planned changes to the inherited Winter Weather Advisories with northwest lower expiring at 00z and western Chippewa at 12z Wednesday. That said, even after the advisory expires, locally poor travel conditions are expected to continue with snow covered roads and pockets of reduced visibility in falling snow.

By Wednesday morning, focus turns to next incoming wave set to drop into the area through the daytime hours. Ongoing, mainly light, lake effect snow showers should flare up in coverage and intensity by early afternoon into early evening as a result of increased synoptic help. Some breeziness returns during the afternoon, but not expecting widespread blowing/drifting snow to be too big of an issue this go around. Accums on the order of 0.5-2.0" across much of northern lower with locally 3"+ in the typical hardest hit snow belts. Similar amounts near Whitefish Pt. One uncertainty to monitor for Wednesday will be potentially heavy lake effect convergence banding across parts of the central and eastern U.P. Latest trends suggest drainage flow out of Ontario late tonight into Wednesday morning aid to shove heaviest banding west of APX's footprint... more into Luce/Alger counties, but certainly worth monitoring trends of that for potential additional impacts.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 257 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Wednesday night - Friday: While occasional lake induced snow showers are likely to continue for portions of the late week time frame, the primary focus for the Wednesday night - Friday time frame will be the potential return of dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills. Air temps Wednesday night expected to fall into the single digits and teens below zero (single digits above zero near and west of Grand Traverse Bay). While winds don't look too notable during this time, even a little wind will bring about increased probabilities for sub -15F wind chills into early Thursday morning. Coldest day of the week expected Thursday with highs largely in the single digits above zero before lows fall to the single digits and teens below zero area-wide Thursday night. Wind chills Thursday night likely in the -20s F, especially across the eastern U.P. and the majority of interior northern lower. Thursday night - early Friday morning time frame has the highest probability of reaching Extreme Cold Warning criteria.

Saturday - early next week: Moderating temperatures anticipated this weekend into early next week. High temps Saturday in the teens, rising into the 20s for Sunday - Monday. Not a whole lot of snow anticipated through the weekend with at least low end snow chances returning Monday as another weak clipper looks to cross the northern tier of the country.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 638 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Some snow showers will continue for CIU tonight, and near Lake MI tonight and Wednesday. IFR conditions at times this evening at CIU, and breifly possible at TVC/PLN/MBL. MVFR to VFR cigs elsewhere tonight and into Wednesday. West winds weakening a bit tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ020>022-025>027-031-032-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ086. MARINE...None.