textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms tonight and Thursday. Very low chances for severe threats with storms

- Temperatures begin to warm as the pattern changes this weekend. Chances increase for hot and humid conditions early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts an area of upper level spin/vorticity over northern MN this afternoon. An upper closed low is in the process of opening up and phasing with upper level energy over eastern CAN coast. Near the surface, current observations depict a broad area of a weaker surface cyclone over the western U.P. The Pacific system over northern MN/western U.P. has some moisture wrapped up within it (around 1 inch PWATs displayed on ALPW), with deeper gulf moisture over the central plains. Most of northern MI will be too far north for this deeper moisture to reach up here as winds turn southerly overnight.. However the Pacific moisture contained within the larger system will be enough for scattered to widespread showers tonight and Thursday. There will be increasing elevated instabilty present as the upper wave approaches tonight. Slightly better shear profiles below 3km exists as the low level cyclone helps to generate south winds of 10 to 15kts right above the shallow inversion present. Storm motion will be westerly, with enough movement to curb flooding concerns tonight. However, heavy rain that is able to train could lead to localized flooding in low lying areas and along creeks. Patchy fog will also be seen over much of the area tonight into Thursday morning.

The shortwave will land right over northern MI Thursday, resulting in the peak of instability which remains "skinny" CAPE through the day. Winds slacken in the lower levels of the atmosphere as the lower level cyclone lands right over the CWA. Wind direction will be variable due to convection, potential for weak lake breeze boundaries, and other cold pool boundaries all interacting with lighter synoptic winds. The main threats for the strongest storms Thursday will be heavy rain, gusty outflow winds and small hail. Freezing levels remain 10 kft with moisture through the column during peak instability. Little to no chances for severe storms. Due to the potentially chaotic nature of boundaries and locally driven winds, a brief spin up or two cannot be ruled out as well.

A break in rain chances will be seen Friday and Saturday as the larger scale pattern starts to shift.. A -PNA will begin to establish as a stronger Pacific system moves inland near the Pac NW. This will deepen the troughing over the western US, and lead to amplified ridging over the eastern US. The center of the upper high could be as close as the Ohio River valley, reaching 596 dam. There is high confidence in this pattern change, however global guidance and ensembles disagree on the exact timing and strength of this feature. There will also be a deep Gulf moisture surge northward under this ridging, which results in potential storm chances and could complicate exact temperature forecasts. Stay tuned into the forecast as we approach these warmer and more humid conditions next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Flight conditions will slowly deteriorate this evening and tonight as -RA and -TSRA move west to east across the region. VSBY's and CIG's remain mostly VFR and MVFR this evening with temporary flight category reductions due to localized -TSRA impacts. Ceilings continue to lower overight into Thursday morning with IFR and potential LIFR flight categories. Condtions slowly improve throughout the day Thursday, eventually returning to VFR at the end or shortly beyond the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.