textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue, resulting in a slow melting of snowpack the next several days.

- Active weather potential with mixed precipitation types as we head into midweek next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Zonal flow regime in full control, allowing for a belch of Pacific air to infiltrate the region, in quite an impressive turnaround from what we had been dealing with through much of the end of January. Currently contending with a plume of low level moisture leading to mix of stratus and freezing fog across the area... anticipating any fog to lift rather quickly this morning. Otherwise... surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS keeping things generally dry and mundane through the weekend with above average high temperatures in the 30s and 40s... perhaps poking near or exceeding 50 Sunday in the far southern reaches of the CWA as a WAA wing rockets through and SW flow pumps in even milder air. For the time being, nighttime lows are expected to hold in the 20s. The pattern trends more active into next week as troughing over the west coast starts spitting out waves of energy into the eastern CONUS. Initially, a cold front dipping into the Great Lakes may spark off some rain showers / drizzle Monday as highs peak well in the 40s once again. Despite the mundane nature of things... will have to watch the local rivers / streams for ice jam potential as we trend toward a more thaw dominant regime and streamflows increase, and thus increasing potential for iced over streams to bust open and issues to arise in problem spots.

We will see see a subtle baroclinic zone materialize across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes heading into midweek, with modestly favorable jet dynamics supporting ample lift in an elongated zone stretching from roughly Alberta to the northern Great Lakes in the Tuesday night - Thursday timeframe. This will also support low pressure development across the Corn Belt... which adds a layer of intrigue to this setup... with surface high pressure holding steadfast off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, this adds potential for a Gulf moisture tap on top of an already stout Pacific moisture plume set to park across the northern third to half of the CONUS. As such, anticipating a return to active weather across the region... and with model guidance remaining all over the place, it is kind of tough to nail down how this will exactly play out. One thing is for certain... pattern recognition says that with a regime so dominated by warm advection, this could be a wintry smorgasbord of precipitation across the board. So with all that being said... more details to come regarding this potentially very impactful period of weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Fog and/or stratus will impact the TAF sites this morning. A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions is forecast at all sites but APN, which should be mostly MVFR. Improving conditions by late morning/midday, to VFR. Additional lower clouds/fog could enter the picture again toward the tail end of the TAF period. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.