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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain ends tonight

- Gusty southwest winds Thursday

- Mild Friday with temperatures in the 40s and some 50s.

- Chance for rain or a light mix Friday night into early Saturday.

- Colder Sunday into the first half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1057 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Temperatures have been slow to climb across portions of Interior northern lower MI, but elsewhere, upper 30s to mid 40s are being observed, especially near the Lake Michigan shoreline. Warm, moist advection has resulted in patchy to areas of fog developing across the region, most notable across interior northern lower, which should continue through portions of the night. Once winds shift around to the southwest late tonight, a drier airmass will end much of that potential. There will be a few isolated pockets of convective showers as well, perhaps a rumble of thunder as seen this evening, prior to this wind shift.

Southwest winds will become windy on Thursday, thanks to strong low level winds as a sfc cyclone ejects to the east across Ontario and Quebec. Fcst soundings and spatial fields display ~40 to 50 KTs around 850 mb, which could be realized to an extent once mixing begins shortly after sunrise. Areas that possess the best combination of mixing depths and locally stronger winds aloft will be generally along and north of M-32, which could see wind gusts ~45 mph, or a little higher in spots. The strongest winds will remain into the afternoon hours before diminishing by the evening hours. Trees that still possess ice accumulation, and any weakened trees in general from this past ice storm, will be susceptible for more limb damage or blow overs.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Sharp shortwave trough and attendant sub 980mb surface low pivoting northeast across the upper Mississippi Valley/far western Great Lake this afternoon. Surge of strong and moist elevated warm air advection overrunning slowly retreating cold airmass resulting in a mixed bag of precipitation across the Northwoods this morning and early afternoon. Warm air depth definitely increasing from the south as system attendant surface warm from makes steady progress northeast into the lower Lakes...resulting in changeover to just rain from southwest to northeast across the region. Unfortunately, some of the high impact areas from this weekends ice storm saw accumulating snow and additional light ice accumulations today...no doubt complicating ongoing widespread clean-up efforts.

Low pressure will continue to pivot northeast...reaching vicinity north shore of Lake Superior by late tonight...heading further east off into Quebec by Thursday afternoon. Southward bowing cold front from this low will cross northern Michigan tonight, ushering in drier and windy conditions Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing lingering precipitation (and thunder) concerns tonight, with focus shifting to gusty winds and temperature trends on Thursday.

Details:

Still looking at showers along and north of northeast bowing warm front the remainder of this afternoon into this evening, with some lingering showers likely as primary cold front cuts east across the area overnight. Any lingering mixed precipitation across the north expected to steadily transition to just rain as surface temperatures warm and elevated warm nose deepens. Still expecting a few rumbles of thunder, and while cannot completely rule out an isolated severe storm or two, expect primary severe threat to remain off to our south where warm sector has remained today. Shower threat ends from west to east late tonight into early Thursday as deep layer drying surges in behind cold frontal passage. Primary story tomorrow for clean-up efforts will be some rather gusty southwest winds, with downward momentum transfer profiles easily supporting frequent gusts in excess of 30 mph, with perhaps some areas across northwest lower Michigan making a run at 40 mph or even a bit more. While ice is expected to be largely gone from the trees as lows tonight remain above freezing and with highs on Thursday in the 40s and 50s, weakened branches from previous ice loading will likely continue to fail with these gusty winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Keep your fingers crossed because it looks like northern Michigan is going to catch a well needed break in the active weather pattern for the most part with only a couple of hopefully small exceptions. It will remain mild to start off the long term but colder temperatures are expected to return Sunday into the first half of next week. Night time temperatures are expected to be below freezing and in some cases well below freezing (especially Sunday through Tuesday nights). So hopefully electric crews can continue to make progress restoring much needed power so people can get warmth into their homes. Another mild day Friday along with lots of sunshine as well as welcomed light winds. Model guidance is trending farther north with low pressure moving by to our south Friday night into Saturday morning. This system will bring chances for some light precipitation. The highest chances will be across southern counties, generally along and south of M-32. Any precipitation could fall in the form of light rain/snow, drizzle or a little dreaded freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Ice accumulations (if any) look light (under five hundredths of an inch) but roadways could still become slick and hazardous. Hopefully we can pin down further details as we get closer. Upper level disturbances moving through a long wave trough aloft will then lead to chances for mainly snow showers Sunday into early next week. Definitely quieter weather but not without a few things to keep track of.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong WS will continue tonight, generally southwest WS020 40-50KTs. SCT SHRA early, drying out through the night most areas. Areas of BR/FG will continue tonight as well, resulting in pockets of VIS between 1/2 - 1SM at times, most susceptible terminals will be KPLN and KCIU, through about 08Z. CIGs generally OVC003-010 through about 09-12Z, then rising to OVC015-030. Gusty conditions are expected after sunrise on Thursday, with a general 15-20G35KTs.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ348- 349. Gale Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342- 344-345. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.