textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front on Wednesday ushers in another shot of cold air and more lake effect snow showers.

- Weather remains relatively active thereafter, with more chances for snow showers at various times right into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Aggressive northern stream flow regime continues, with much of the northern Conus...including the Great Lakes...encompassed by long- wave troughing. Embedded shortwave troughs racing across the region...one exiting stage right into the eastern Great Lakes with yet another diving southeast into the northern Plains. Northern Michigan currently centered between these systems...with weak surface ridge axis running south to north across the area. Still getting some lingering very light snow showers/flurries rotating off the big waters, although most areas remain dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies. A seasonably chilly one, with current temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Northern Plains wave will continue to race east, with it and its attendant rather vigorous cold front slicing across the area on Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional lake augmented snow concerns tonight and Wednesday.

Details:

Other than perhaps a few flurries rotating off northern Lake Michigan, expect rather uneventful conditions to persist through this evening. Conditions begin to change overnight with rapid approach of that upstream cold front. Increasingly gusty pre-frontal southwest winds and some deepening of mid level moisture should again help ignite some southwest flow driven Lake Michigan enhanced snows. However, unlike the event just this past night, several factors should help significantly throttle back on snow organization and intensity...to include shallow convective depths (sub 5kft), disjointed moisture above this convective layer, and steadily veering convective layer winds. This band of lake augmented snow will sweep rapidly east across the area later tonight through Wednesday morning/early afternoon. All told, thinking any snow accumulations will be relatively minor with this first "event"...a general 1 to perhaps 3 inches in northwest lower/eastern upper Michigan...with less than an inch likely elsewhere. However, no doubt some travel impacts will occur, especially as those gusty southwest winds help blow some of that snow around. Pretty intense post-frontal drying and subsidence should initially throttle back on northwest flow lake effect snow showers during the afternoon, with perhaps a bit more organization into the snowbelts of eastern upper Michigan by later in the day.

Lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s will likely occur relatively early, with readings slowly rising during the early morning hours as winds and clouds increase. Opposite trend occurs Wednesday, with morning/early afternoon highs topping out mostly in the lower 30s before temperatures begin to drop during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Long-wave troughing remains in place through the period, with maintenance of active northern stream flow helping drive embedded shortwave troughs periodically across the region right into next week. This will keep temperatures a bit on the cold side of normal and bring more snow chances at times to the Northwoods.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through the period.

Details:

Shot of some modified Arctic air set to visit the area Wednesday night into Thursday night. Northwest winds will help drive in these cold temperatures, of course continuing to ignite lake snows off those big waters. Main area of more impactful snow looks to reside across the snowbelts of eastern upper Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with pattern recognition and guidance both supporting the development of lake aggregate troughing up across Whitefish Bay into the central basin. This would help focus low level convergence into eastern upper, likely helping drive much more organized and locally intense snows into those snowbelt regions. While any synoptic moisture contribution will be limited, decent convective depths up to 10kft should definitely help compensate some. Different story across northern Lake Michigan, with even shallower convective depths and lack of any significant low level convergence. This should keep lake snows a bit less organized and intense into northwest lower Michigan, although simple persistence of snow showers should support some minor accumulations (probably on the order of a few inches).

As mentioned, airmass dropping into the area will be a quite cold one. Likely looking at highs Thursday not getting out of the teens across some interior areas, with lows Thursday night in the single digits and lower teens. Of course, that only tells part of the story...with gusty northwest winds making it feel several degrees colder yet...producing wind chill values down into the single digits both above and below zero.

Airmass modifies a bit Friday into Saturday before next wave and attendant slug of cold air arrives Sunday into Monday. Even more fast moving waves set to visit the region heading through next week. While pattern recognition strongly supports a complete disconnect to any deep sub-tropical moisture with these waves...deep forcing and continued lake processes will no doubt continue to kick off lake enhanced/effect snow showers at times right through the period. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees below normal, coldest during that Sunday/Monday timeframe when highs will likely only top out in the lower to middle 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 655 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Mostly MVFR cigs at terminals this evening as a FROPA approaches the area from the west. S/SW winds of 5 t0 10kts with G20kts will be seen along coastal terminals tonight (KPLN/KTVC/KMBL) and reach other sites after 18Z (KCIU/KAPN). SHSN will be seen near KCIU through most of the period, with SHSN starting after 03Z near KPLN and around 12Z for KTVC/KMBL. Winds will turn NW behind the FROPA after ~18Z, with SHSN continuing for most sites through the end of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.