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KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger through this evening.

- Increasing shower chances Sunday, especially late.

- Very warm and muggy Monday into Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms at times, strong storms possible Monday.

- Cooler and drier mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Heights will rise on Sunday as axis of high pressure aloft moves overhead. Really warm looking pattern overall, although nuance will be introduced with upstream weather features.

Looks like a convectively agitated or induced vort max/feature within the southwest flow will move northeast into northern MI through the day on Sunday, complicating a portion of the forecast. This will likely produce clouds and the potential for showers and embedded convection, especially from the midday hours into portions of the afternoon. Differences emerge within guidance in regards to timing and the extent of rain/cloud coverage. Consequently, the temperature (and subsequent RH) fcst will be somewhat difficult to nail down. Look no further than the difference between the bias corrected and raw guidance. Regardless, west of the highest terrain may be the warmest given the easterly winds and downslope component, while near the Lake Huron shoreline (& E UP) will be the coolest, all else being equal. Currently leaning towards the potential for showers slowly moving into the southwest portions of the county warning area midday with the activity moving east and northeast into the afternoon. Some CAM guidance hints at the potential for this feature to influence the region earlier which would make the current fcst temps and RHs too high and low, respectively.

Sfc low pressure system will begin to wrap up across the Plains and move northeast Sunday night as warm front eventually lifts northward. Warm advection and convergence/moisture convergence begins as a result with the potential for additional showers and a few thunderstorms, especially during the first half of the night south of the bridge. Best lift associated with the LLJ looks to certainly be displaced to the northwest of northern lower MI overall, but shower and storm coverage may linger a little longer across the E UP and vicinity. A stronger elevated storm cannot be ruled out if activity is able to develop and fire off during the middle of the night within the better instability and shear.

Low pressure system continues to lift northward with northern MI solidly in the warm sector on Monday. Strong south and southwest winds (25 to 35 mph gusts) will continue to advect an anomalously warm and moist airmass into the region, with high temperatures likely well into the mid and upper 80s across the region with dewpoints in the low 60s, making for not only a very warm but muggy airmass. Caveat to the forecast will be how much storm coverage there will be on Monday, but the pattern overall screams anomalous warmth.

Speaking of storm coverage, current thought is for shower and storm coverage to increase if not Monday afternoon, then into the overnight hours. Current SPC outlook has portions of northern Michigan in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms, with a moderate combination of shear and instability. Plenty of questions still remain in regard to convective evolution, with more in the way of convectively charged features upstream either aiding, or hindering, convective intensity and coverage. Still, the potential exists for strong to severe storms Monday and Monday night especially. Low pressure will continue to move eastward on Tuesday, with another warm day with the potential for thunderstorms. That being said, cold front will begin to influence the area late in the day and into the overnight hours, advecting a much drier, and cooler, airmass into northern Michigan.

Much cooler airmass expected midweek behind the frontal boundary as deep troughing and subsequent low pressure system moves eastward across Ontario. Our parade of 70s and 80s will be muted as a result for a couple of days, with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s mainly. Nevertheless, heights begin to rebound towards the end of the week and into the weekend meaning temperatures trend back up into the 60s and 70s. All the while, relatively quiet with minimal precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Currently VFR conditions at all terminals with skies trending SKC and southwest winds becoming west at 10 to 15kts with frequent G20 to 25kts. Winds will gradually weaken after 22z for most terminals, becoming AOB 5kts by 03z. Winds will veer northwest as they weaken. Slight chances for HZ/BR near KMBL due to light east winds and clear skies overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the period. East to southeast winds will become 10kts near the end of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...None.