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KEY MESSAGES

- Sporadic/small shower/storm chances thru Thursday.

- Somewhat cooler temps late this week and weekend.

- After a break Friday, precip chances return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A low-amplitude ridge-west/trof-east pattern persists. This pattern does get interrupted this weekend, as an upper-level shortwave ridge tries to push into the Great Lakes. But this ridge gradually deamplifies and melts away, returning us to our previously scheduled wnw-flow programming. Areas of more active wx will continue to be found to our north, and to our south, for the next few days.

No precip or synoptic-scale cloud cover early this AM. However, patchy fog and low clouds are developing as expected, especially in the south (where the BL is more moist). That will gradually burn off as we move thru mid- morning. Our highest-progged instability by afternoon extends from MBL/CAD- ne-ward into the Straits. MlCape values reach up to 500j/kg here, aided by moisture from Lake MI. With very light synoptic winds today, the strongest forcing today will be in the eastern UP, where lake breezes will collide in the interior in the afternoon. Our ability to turn instability into convection elsewhere is less certain, with weaker forcing along lake breeze boundaries. And a lot of the energy in the broader region will focus along one or more MCSs tracking across the southern lakes this afternoon/ tonight. Tonight, some guidance tries to bring convective remnants east from the MI/WI border toward the Straits. Chancy pops in order for much of tonight for eastern upper and far northern lower MI.

Unfortunately, model spread regarding shortwave impulses tracking across the area mid-week has increased. Convective feedback into the broader synoptic pattern is becoming more substantial in model progs (which is likely correct). For Wednesday during the day, it looks like we're out ahead of any even weak forcing. So lake-breeze focused convection should be the main show, such as it is. That means a chance for afternoon storms in eastern upper and ne lower MI. Can something take a run at us from the wnw Wed night? Guidance pops are very unimpressed. A small chance for convection returns south of M-32 Thursday.

Surface high pressure builds se-ward into the northern lakes region to close out the work week. This will bring cooler/drier wx for a short while, Thu night to Fri night. But return flow behind the departing high, and ahead of a surface cold front and some shortwave forcing aloft, will transition us wetter for the weekend. Potentially a decent shot for what would be needed rain for many, but lots can change between now and then. Somewhat cool/dry northerly low- level flow behind that front for early next week. Temps are a little cooler Friday to Monday, with highs in the 70s, as opposed to near 80f/low 80s the other days of the next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 641 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Morning fog/low clouds are impacting MBL/APN and to a lesser degree TVC. Meanwhile, some showers are heading into the PLN area (falling out of a VFR mid-cloud deck). Some showers/storms could pop up this afternoon near APN/CIU, but these should be more 'miss' than 'hit'. Some for could return later tonight, most likely MBL and perhaps APN. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.