textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful snow and windy conditions expected this evening into Saturday.

- More lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday.

- High potential (70-100%) for above freezing high temps mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Pesky, lingering lake effect will continue to pester northern Chippewa county into the morning hours before diminishing. There could be a local burst of snow from Whitefish to Sault Ste Marie. Otherwise, brief short wave ridging will move over during the middle portions of the day today. Light west to southwest winds will keep a few light lake effect snow showers hanging around out ahead of the next system. Speaking of, upper low dives to the south across the Upper Midwest during the day today. Subsequent sfc low pressure will move east as well, with cold front sweeping into northern MI during the evening and overnight hours. Thus, burst of lake enhanced snow breaks out across northwest lower MI and within the northwest snow belts as low level convergence and mid level lift overspreads the region. Winds begin to pick up through the evening and night as cold advection increases and pressure gradient tightens, with gusts 25 to 35 mph possible at times. The actual amounts are a little questionable depending on location, but think with the approaching vigorous upper low/short wave out ahead of the parent upper low, there will be a pretty good thumb of lake effect/enhancement this evening and into portions of tonight. Thus, through tonight, expect ~2-4 fluffy inches of snow across parts of northwest lower and northern portions of eastern upper with times of blowing snow and significant visibility reductions. A general 1-2 inches of snow for locations far removed from the Lake effect/enhancement regions. Lake effect snow continues into Saturday.

Winter weather advisories have been hoisted for the big 5 lake effect zones in northern lower plus Emmet county, in addition to portions of Chippewa county. Consideration was given to GTB to Leelanau and points southwest, but can be updated with the next cycle if deemed necessary. Additionally, there is a world where northern Chippewa county approaches warning level snows but confidence is too low at this time to upgrade. Timing for most is this evening through Saturday evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Day 2-3 (Saturday - Sunday):

Core of the arctic airmass oozes into northern MI through the day on Saturday as upper low digs south across the Great Lakes. Thus, temperatures likely struggle to move much with upper single digits to mid teens through the day. Consequently, lake effect snows that will be ongoing across the region will not only accumulate (to some extent, probably not super efficiently), but could cause rapid and significant drops in visibility due to the smaller flake sizes (T850 ~ -20C). Thus, this was taken into account when making headline decisions. Regardless, expect a couple of additional inches of snow possible across the NW- WNW snow belts with windy conditions and very low visibilities in snow bands.

As trough axis dives to the southeast Saturday night, another burst of lake effect snow is expected. Hot spots may be eastern upper and then GTB-Leelanau Peninsula on southwest as winds shift more northerly, but will ultimately depend on the exact upper trough and subsequent lake aggregate trough orientation. Sunday will remain cold with highs in the teens and lower 20s. Lake effect will continue through the day but wane in coverage and intensity.

Days 4-7 (Monday - Thursday):

Positively tilted short wave moves within the vicinity of northern MI on Monday, resulting in a little light snow across the region. Otherwise, the story will be the "warming" trend into the middle portions of the week as heights increase. Statistical guidance indicates a medium to high potential (70-100%) for high temperatures to rise above freezing next Wednesday, further increasing confidence that a thaw to some degree is possible next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Mixture of MVFR to VFR conditions expected to continue through much of today under some passing lake effect clouds. Could still see a few light snow showers at times, but with little impact. Better chances for more impactful snow and lower cigs expected to develop this evening into the overnight (most impactful conditions expected just after this taf cycle ends). No significant wind concerns through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ016. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for MIZ021-022-027-028-086-087-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.