textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest flow lake effect snow showers this afternoon transition to more widespread snow tonight, especially across parts of northwest lower and the eastern U.P.

- Additional chances for snow this weekend into early next week.

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Watching potential for more impactful snow toward the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level troughing draped across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with the trough axis running from Hudson Bay south-southwestward into the Four Corners region/Baja California. This axis shifts eastward through the short term forecast period with several embedded shortwave perturbations expected to bring continued/additional snow chances to parts of northern MI through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast Details: Light southwest flow lake effect snow showers (occasionally mixed with a bit of freezing drizzle) this afternoon continue to focus across sections of northwest lower. Eyes upstream focus on a mid-level shortwave and attendant surface trough/cold front currently swinging through MN/western WI. This wave progged to arrive locally late this afternoon/evening providing renewed synoptic support/moisture for more numerous/widespread and locally heavier snow showers. Winds remain southwesterly through tonight with the highest impact expected near and west of M-37 in far northwest lower MI and parts of Emmet County. General accums in these areas of 2-4" (locally higher in Emmet Co.) with 1-3" across the remainder of far northwest lower into parts of Chip/Mack counties. Most widespread snow exists late tonight/early Saturday morning with winds turning northwesterly behind the passing sfc trough/cold front.

Tough call on potential headlines late afternoon through tonight given forecast snow accumulations generally right around 2-4 inches across much of Manistee to Leelanau and Emmet counties (locally higher in Emmet). Given southwest winds remain breezy through this time frame with gusts as high as 25 mph aiding to further reduce visibility in patchy blowing snow, that tipped the scales toward a Winter Weather Advisory through 10z Saturday for the counties listed above. Lesser forecast snow accum on the order of 1-3" across remaining northwest lower Lake Michigan collar counties and southern Chip/Mack tipped the scales in the other direction.

At least some northwest flow scattered lake effect snow showers likely to continue Saturday across parts of eastern upper and northwest lower, although not much in the way of accumulation expected given a loss of synoptic moisture above a sub-5kft (and shrinking) inversion. Could even have a bit of patchy freezing drizzle mix in at times with cloud top temperatures flirting with being a touch warmer than -10C. Most likely spot for an additional inch or two of accumulation through the day Saturday would be across far northern Chippewa County from Paradise to the Soo.

By Saturday evening, next embedded shortwave expected to be upstream with its sights set on the local area for Saturday night/Sunday morning. While the heaviest snow is favored for areas to our south, at least widespread light snow (with possible lake enhancement) is expected across much of northern lower MI. Current trends favor 1-3" from the tip of the mitt and south during this time frame, but expect some refinement over the coming 36-48 hours.

Any way you slice it, continued active wintry weather with periods of hazardous travel likely this weekend.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Pattern Forecast: ~1032mb surface high pressure is expected to be sliding overhead Sunday evening through Monday morning setting the stage for a very cold night Sunday night. Otherwise, an active winter pattern continues across the Great Lakes next week with several snow chances as early as Monday night/Tuesday, and again Tuesday night - Wednesday with the latter of these two carrying higher potential for more widespread impacts.

Day 3-4 (Sun. night through Monday): Cold Sunday night/Monday morning with low temps likely falling below zero across interior areas. Highest probabilities for sub-zero readings lie from Cadillac to Gladwin northward to Gaylord and from Trout Lake to Kinross to the Soo. "Warmer" near the big lakes -- generally in the single digits above zero. Perhaps low teens at the immediate shorelines.

Day 5-7 (Mon. night - Thursday): Another active stretch of wintry weather looks to be on tap for much of next week with snow chances returning as early as Monday night into Tuesday. Quite a bit of uncertainty with for this time frame with respect to how widespread snow is, but certainly some accum. expected across at least parts of the Northwoods.

Second, more potent and moisture-rich, wave set to trek across the northern tier of the nation's midsection during the late Tuesday - Wednesday time frame. Long range ensemble trends still favoring this system to have higher potential for more notable accumulation and associated impacts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 658 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Light snow continues this evening and early overnight (though much less so APN than elsewhere). IFR conditions common tonight at the other TAF sites. Snow exits, and conditions improve to MVFR late overnight, and in some spots VFR Saturday afternoon.

Somewhat breezy s to sw winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for MIZ016-020- 025-031. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ322. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321.