textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers & storms increase thru the day today, esp tonight into Thurs. Isolated strong storms are possible along with localized flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

SPC mesoanalysis currently shows plenty of column moisture pooling across portions of MN and vicinity, poised to make a run eastward and advect into northern MI today into Thursday. Combine that with several embedded west to east, or WNW to ESE perturbations within the flow, convectively agitated or otherwise, and the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases through the day today, continuing into Thursday. Additionally, sfc frontal boundary will slowly sag southward today into Thursday, with the potential for low pressure system to slightly organize and ride along this boundary. This could result in a corridor of enhanced rainfall.

The best combination of low level convergence, upper level divergence (due to multiple disturbances in the upper level flow), and progged instability will be tonight into portions of Thursday, realizing the best potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and isolated stronger storms capable of gusty winds. Locales with recent heavy rains (Tip of the Mitt and portions of Leelanau, Antrim and Charlevoix counties) will be more sensitive to heavy rain rates and thus a slightly heightened flooding potential. Showers and storms this morning and midday will likely focus across Tip of the Mitt and Eastern Upper, with northwest lower MI in play afternoon/evening and beyond as convection west of Lake MI tries to develop and move into northern MI. Looking at the latest model guidance shows a wide range of outcomes, pretty typical for a system such as this. One piece of guidance that is quite bullish is the RAP, which is insistent on a more compact low pressure system riding the sfc frontal boundary with significant sfc convergence near and just to the north of this feature and subsequently unleashing some healthy rain totals across some of the aforementioned sensitive areas. There are definitely other pieces of guidance hinting at a healthy rainfall as well, with the progged environment/sounding tonight into early Thursday nothing short of tropical. The limiting factor may be the instability quality, but when the column is this saturated with warm cloud depths ~12+ kft, efficient and heavy rainfall will occur with the slightest hints of convective precipitation. This particular model (RAP) may easily be influenced by convective feedback producing a more compact low pressure system and enhanced area of convergence, so will need to monitor model and observational trends. That does not change the environment in place tonight into Thursday, just depends on the quality of the instability and where the best lift sets up.

Showers and storms, capable of locally heavy rain, will continue on Thursday, a southward trend with time into northern and central lower Michigan as the forcing and best instability/moisture oozes southward. Although moisture is quite high and EBWD is pretty marginal, would not be surprised to see a isolated stronger storm near Saginaw Bay and vicinity based on the current progged soundings, given convection initiates. Precipitation chances will wane through the night, with a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures warm back into the 80s this weekend as ridging builds across a good chunk of the CONUS and thus heights rise across N MI. Couple pieces of deterministic guidance show a piece of energy well to the north and east with the potential to produce precipitation on Sunday, but ensemble 50th percentile 24 hr QPF is not impressed with this potential, and neither is our current fcst for this weekend.

The heat is on...across the central portions of the country next week as potent/anomalous high pressure builds across the Northern Plains vicinity. Consequently, this feature will keep northern Michigan pretty warm at least into early to mid next week (plenty of 80s with some 90s sprinkled in). We'll be keeping an eye on any robust pieces of energy on the north and northeast side of this high pressure system attempting to, or not to, slide into N MI. Right now, the signal for impactful weather within the ENS suite is pretty low, at least during the early portions of next week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.