textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional freezing drizzle and light snow through tonight.

- Burst of snow and lowered visibility on Friday followed by strong winds.

- Below zero temperatures and wind chills Friday night into early Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 252 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

A slew of short waves rotate through/within the vicinity of northern MI this evening through Friday. First two provide lift to produce generally light snow, with the third aiding in an arctic front pushing through the region. Main concern will be the burst of snow, wind, and cold associated with, and behind, this front through the day on Friday and into the overnight hours.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Wintry Impacts:

Concern through the overnight hours will be a mix of light snow and FZDZ. Soundings do show stripping of moisture above the -10C level, with best potential for this likely across southwest portions of the area. Thinking GTB southwest, and perhaps even moreso Manistee county and vicinity. Just not a whole lot of confidence in impacts as high as a winter weather advisory, and thus, will not be issuing at this time. But if the signal becomes more clear, that certainly could be done, although an SPS might be more appropriate given the threat materializes.

Thereafter, a little skim of snow expected early on Friday in association with a quick moving short wave aloft. This may add an inch or so of additional accums for the GTB and southwest portion of our area. Concern turns towards an arctic frontal boundary Friday morning through early afternoon or so, with a band of snow along the front, in addition to windy and cold conditions behind the front. Not seeing a whole lot of accumulation tomorrow with this feature, and even lackluster lake effect behind it for most of the area. Setup looks very much like the snow squall conceptual model, albeit the thermodynamic profile is not as robust. Certainly have a trough and jet max upstream, some low level instability, burst of snow/wind, and rapidly falling temps. Will likely word it as more of a burst of snow, wind, and cold, but worth keeping an eye on the snow squall potential through the early to mid portions of Friday. Looks like the main limiting factor will be a combination of the lackluster thermo and the fact that the main lift from the upper trough will be displaced to the north across Ontario/Quebec. Not sure really what the hazards/products should be for something like that which is a quick hitting, but potentially impactful period that may not rise to true snow squall criteria. Winter weather advisory seems a little overkill, esp for many areas that may see 1-2 hrs of snow, but I could be wrong. Not planning to issue a product at this juncture given the main impact period will be 12Z and beyond, and also the lack of snow accumulation. Spoke with DTX and GRR, and the consensus was to handle something like that with a short fused product, which makes sense.

Winds/Temps:

Winds will increase behind the arctic front Friday midday to afternoon, with boundary layer winds and thus sfc wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. A few gusts/areas may exceed 40 mph for a brief period. Although winds slowly diminish with time Friday night, the combination of temps in the single digits above to up to 10 below along with the winds will lead to wind chills in the -15 to -25 range. Cold wx advisory likely for this Friday night into early Saturday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 252 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Main concern through the period will be Friday night into early Saturday. Arctic airmass will continue to ooze into northern MI through the night, with overnight low temperatures below zero and wind chills in the -10s and -20s. Winds slowly slacken through the night, but will be windy, gusts 25 to 40 mph, during the evening and early overnight. Lingering lake effect snow is expected as well, especially across Grand Traverse Bay and southwest due to the wind orientation/ice coverage. A few inches of additional snow not out of the question in this region, although colder temps will likely mute snow efficiency in favor or decreased visibility.

Heights will rise through the rest of this weekend and into the early to middle portions of next week. This will result in a bit of a rebound in temperatures, with 20s and 30s for highs. Atmosphere will contain pieces of energy sprinkled throughout with perhaps some warm advection precip early next week, in addition to a low pressure system tracking to the south of the area. Will have to watch this potential low pressure system in subsequent runs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Lots of IFR conditions out there overnight, all the way until a strong cold front crosses northern MI Friday morning. Patchy snow and freezing drizzle will persist until then as well. Brief but sharp vsby reductions with stronger snow showers as the front goes thru. Improvement to MVFR behind the front, and in some places VFR eventually. Gusty nw/nnw winds will support BLSN by Friday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...None.