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KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow through this evening.

- Milder to end the week, much colder this weekend with occasional snow showers. Very gusty northwest winds Friday night as colder air surges into the area.

- Temperatures moderate again next week with no significant precipitation events anticipated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Forecast period starts out with a broad but not terribly amplified ridge west/trof east pattern in place across North America. Numerous waves will continue to pass by the vicinity of the Great Lakes in a persistent northwest flow regime, but most will not provide noteworthy weather locally.

A split in the flow develops by early next week as a strong wave moves into the southwest United States. This wave slowly translates to the east with time, with the flow downstream across the eastern U.S. trending zonal by the end of the week.

Forecast Details: Weak wave currently bringing clouds and light snow to parts of the forecast area will move east of region by later tonight. Not much cold air filters in behind this wave so any trailing lake effect should be minimal. In fact, the next stronger clipper type wave will be moving into northwest Ontario by Friday morning. The northerly track of this wave will result in significant warming across the forecast area for Friday as 850 mb temperatures surge above 0C areawide, resulting in daytime highs Friday in the 40s across northern lower and around 40 across eastern Upper Michigan. May see some light rain or rain/snow across eastern Upper ahead of the main wave in a strong WAA regime, but most of the precipitation should stay north of the forecast area. Strong cold advection behind the wave will usher colder air into the area which will linger through the weekend. Deep mixing in the CAA regime should result in gusty northwest winds Friday night, especially in eastern Upper Michigan and along the Lake Michigan coast in northwest Lower Michigan. Can't rule out the need for a Wind Advisory for parts of the area Friday night, but opted to hold off for now. Some lake effect snow is likely in favored northwest flow areas through the weekend, but at this point snow amounts don't look significant.

As the upper-level flow splits early next week, downstream heights will rise. The well agreed upon result of the rising heights is temperatures trending warmer as the week progresses. Model agreement is not as good in the timing/track of any disturbances that may impact the area as the upper-level pattern shifts. The model consensus suggests no significant weather systems for the area before the end of the week, but we'll need to keep an eye on things until better agreement in the details is achieved.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

A disturbance will cross the northern Michigan terminal area over the next several hours. Snowfall with this feature will reduce aviation weather conditions to MVFR at most local TAF sites, with local IFR conditions possible. The TAF sites that will be most degraded are KCIU and KPLN. Conditions will improve back to VFR behind the disturbance tonight. Winds will generally be southwesterly through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.