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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy this afternoon with showers/storms arriving later today into tonight. Period of locally stronger winds possible late afternoon into the early evening.

- Showers linger in spots into early Tuesday.

- Cooler Tuesday onward, with below freezing overnight low temperatures mid-late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridge axis that crossed northern MI yesterday is now situated downstream from the Southeast states into the eastern Great Lakes. Troughing anchored over the western third of the CONUS with focus on an embedded shortwave and attendant surface low pressure making headway across the Plains into the upper MS Valley this afternoon. Low pressure treks by to our northwest across the central/western U.P. tonight into Ontario during the day Tuesday and to near James Bay by 00z Wednesday. Beyond this system, not a whole lot in the way of sensible weather is anticipated; however, upper troughing is expected to dominate the upcoming week featuring cooler temperatures and only occasional minor precip chances.

Forecast Details: Tightening pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned approaching system will continue to drive increasingly breezy/gusty southeast winds this afternoon/evening. Gusts of 25-40 mph likely across all of northern MI with those higher end values more likely across portions of northwest lower and the eastern U.P. As was alluded to by the prior shift, some locally higher gusts in excess of 45 mph not entirely out of the question this afternoon/early evening where efficient boundary layer mixing manifests. Think these higher end values are more the exception rather than the rule, but certainly within the realm of possibilities. These southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into northern MI (albeit slowly), setting the stage for more numerous showers and some rumbles of thunder, especially later this evening and overnight, coinciding with the arrival of best forcing for ascent. That said, prior to that, it'll be worth watching what's expected to be a decaying MCS approach from the southwest late this afternoon/early evening (this already ongoing across IL). While the vast majority of precip and potential issues with this MCS will be well to our south, it's conceivable that a few showers/storms on the northern edge will make a run at southwestern portions of the forecast area. Perhaps more notably will be a potential wake low/gust front associated with this decaying activity (depicted well in some CAMs). Primary concern from this will be the potential for a brief period of even gustier winds (45-55 mph), along with a chaotic wind shift. Will be issuing a SPS for this potential shortly, with the best time frame for this brief period of stronger winds largely between 4-8 PM. Do think south of the forecast area has a better shot at more staying power of these higher end gusts.

As was alluded to above, better chances for showers and embedded storms arrive later this evening and overnight. Elevated instability generally favored to top out at a few hundred J/kg tonight with ~40- 45 kts of deep layer bulk shear. While unlikely, any robust storms able to materialize will bear watching simply. SPC Day 1 maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) on the doorstep of our southwest counties, bounding a much greater severe weather threat well to the south. Locally heavy rain likely to be the primary concern with this activity given bountiful moisture late evening/overnight with PWs near or above 1.25", elevated instability and warm cloud heights (7.5-8.5 kft). ENS consensus largely ranges from 0.25-0.75" of rain across northern MI, although potential for QPF in excess of 1" certainly exists given potential convection, with probabilistic guidance favoring parts of far northwest lower (Manistee/Wexford counties) and the eastern U.P. for this -- prob to exceed 1" generally ranging from 35-60% across these areas. The most numerous shower/storm activity exits stage right early Tuesday morning, but lingering lighter showers will remain possible at times through midday Tuesday.

Beyond this system, much of next week looks to feature little in the way of sensible weather. Troughing overhead will lead to below normal temperatures, and while a few showers will be possible at times with any subtle perturbations rippling through the flow, no additional widespread or meaningful rainfall is anticipated. Likely the biggest story will be overnight low temperatures, especially Wednesday night through Friday night when temperatures have the potential to fall into the 20s across much of the forecast area. As Growing season running about a week or so ahead of schedule may pose some frost/freeze concerns, especially across the typically sensitive agriculture areas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 746 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Some showers are already pushing into the CIU area. Additional SHRA/TSRA activity is developing in WI and northern IL, and will move quicky ne into northern MI tonight. Best chance for TSRA will be at TVC/MBL. Cigs/vsbys will worsen, with MVFR cigs becoming widespread. Expected IFR cigs overnight into Tue morning at CIU/TVC/MBL. Conditions gradually improve Tuesday.

Gusty se winds weaken somewhat this evening, veering sw toward morning and nw later Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345-347>349. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341-342. Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-344>346. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.