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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow continues into Friday night. Periods of significantly reduced visibility leading to hazardous travel in the snowbelts.

- Dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night to Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 319 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Cold upper low, near the Manitoba/Ontario border, will move se across northern Ontario today/tonight. It passes just north of Superior, and will be between James Bay and Georgian Bay by daybreak Friday. A shortwave trof will exit northern MI to the east before dawn. Trailing ripples in the fast upper flow today/tonight look to be weaker than this exiting wave. Cold advection will only increase overlake instability, especially tonight. But that can only help the lake effect snow machine so much.

Though low-level cold advection is underway, there is a brief tongue of warmer 850mb air skirting southern sections of the forecast area this afternoon. The real, crushing cold advection is tonight, with 850mb temps tumbling to the upper minus 20s to around -30C. The 1000- 850mb fetch is fairly stable from the west today, with a bit of veering in the afternoon on eastern Superior. With the departure of synoptic forcing and better moisture, lake snows into northern lower MI seem to already be decreasing compared to late evening. Lower-end lake effect accums are planned for today, with relatively dry air post-shortwave, and a shorter fetch than on Superior. A broad 1-2" of snow is expected today in nw and n central lower MI, with some local 3"-ish possible. When combined with winds gusting to circa 30mph, the falling/blowing snow should be enough for some travel impacts. Nw Chippewa Co will do better today, with a longer fetch and more 1000mb convergence progged at the east tip of the lake. Accums of 2-6" possible near/n of Paradise.

Tonight, we veer to a wobbly wnw to nw fetch. Snow-liquid ratios will be substantially hindered by a lack of usable DGZ. And lake effect intensity will also be hindered by what is a continued relatively dry airmass. A broad 1-2" with some local 3" in nw/n central lower MI again tonight. 1-4" in western Chip and western Mack Cos in the eastern UP, as the veered winds push bands further inland.

Max temps today in the teens. Readings tumble tonight, especially late. Single-digit sub-zero readings most everywhere, as cold as around -10f at the Sault. Wind chills upper teens to mid 20s below. Very, very cold.

After coord with surrounding offices, we have issued a cold weather advisory for our entire area. These advisories start this evening in both peninsulas (a little sooner in northern lower MI) and run thru middayish Saturday (a little later in eastern upper).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 319 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Lead upper low does depart eastward early in the weekend. Relatively quiet zonal flow is left behind, in the base of the upper trof over ne NA. We eventually briefly transition to sw flow aloft late in the weekend, ahead of a digging upper trof that crosses us Sunday night/Monday. That appears to only be next in a series of prominent clipper waves that will help reinforce the cold air in the region.

Light lake effect snow will continue in the snowbelts Friday and Friday, dwindling after that for a bit. Accums will be small, but snowflakes will be very small, with sharply lowered vsbys at times, and potential blowing/drifting. Lake effect snow pops will continue thru the forecast, with an increase in coverage expected Sunday night/Monday, and perhaps midweek.

Daytime highs Friday range from near 0 in eastern upper and the high terrain of northern lower MI, to single digits above elsewhere. Lows 5 to 15 below zero away from Lake MI Fri night. Sat-Sat night-Sunday see slight rebounds in temps each period, but still obviously very cold. Colder than normal temps hold for the entirety of this forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Snow continues to be observed across most terminals with reduced visibilities and gusty west-northwest winds. More of the same will continue through the period with lake effect/ enhanced snow picking up in intensity and organization later this evening into tonight as winds turn northwest before midnight. Expect BLSN to produce periods of significant reductions in visibilities (IFR to LIFR) through Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016- 017-020>022-025>027-031-032-099. Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ086. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.