textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain and snow lake effect showers Thursday night through Friday. Minor localized accumulations expected.

-Colder temperatures spread Thursday through Sunday with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.

-Quiet weather with mild temperatures returns next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Midlevel analysis depicts a shortwave trough currently digging across Wisconsin will set up and center itself over the Northeastern U.S tonight through the rest of the week. At the surface, showers spread across Northern Michigan driven by low pressure centered over Lake Michigan with an attached cold front sweeping to the south. Light disheveled rain is expected to continue through this evening before strong cold air advection mixes snowfall into the forecast. Northerly flow will persist through Friday and Saturday supporting the potential of moderate banding off of Grand Traverse Bay as delta Ts remain upwards of 20 degrees celsius.

Aforementioned troughing will continue to allow cP air into the northwoods, keeping highs in the mid 30s to low 40s through Saturday. Midlevel troughing progresses towards the Atlantic and is quickly replaced by ridging. Subsidence aloft will support surface high pressure along with mild temperatures building through the remainder of the forecast period. Long range guidance hints at another round of active weather later next week, but details still remain blurry at this time.

Forecast Details:

Thursday and Friday: Warm thermal profiles will continue to occupy the region this evening keeping the majority of precipitation strictly as rainfall through Thursday with light snow mixing in. Winds begin to back with time as the aforementioned low and cold front break down and merge with a stronger cyclone over the northern Ohio Valley. Temperatures falling below freezing Thursday night will materialize lake effect snow showers typically affecting NNE banded areas. While impacts remain low for most parts of the CWA, high-res guidance depicts strong convergence residing along the northern shore of Lake Michigan, creating a moderate band through Grand Traverse Bay Friday night. Widespread overnight lows below freezing have continued the overall cooling trend of ground temperatures, however current soil temperatures remain in the 40s which will limit snow accumulation. Still the better low-level shear for horizontal roll convection depicted in CAM's show the potential for localized accumulations. QPF remains consistent around a quarter inch for Grand Traverse, Leelanau, and Northern Wexford County, but if colder air is able to tap in and create higher snow ratios Friday night into Saturday morning, better banding could result in localized areas to receiving a few inches of accumulations. A general inch or so will remain in the forecast at this time, but high end chances of snow reaching Advisory level criteria cant be ruled out for Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday: Surface cyclone over the Northeast CONUS will continue northerly flow across Michigan this Saturday and continue to draw cP air into the region. Ongoing lake effect snow near the Michigan coastlines will begin to diminish this Saturday as high pressure builds to our West. Highs remain in the low to mid 40s this Saturday and Sunday as northern stream flow stays south of the state but conditions will feel more pleasant as winds diminish Saturday evening and cloud cover begins to break down this Sunday. Otherwise no impactful weather is expected this Weekend.

Monday through Wednesday outlook: Upstream 500mb ridging begins to build through the remainder of the forecast period. Highs build back into the 50s Monday and Tuesday with no precipitation expected. Long range ensembles hint at potential for more active weather around Thanksgiving with another trough developing upstream. Details on impacts remain blurry at this time, especially with regards to P- types, but we will continue to monitor its potential as we head towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Rain showers will mix with snow, before morphing to lake effect bands on Thursday. MVFR cigs have become more widespread as expected. MVFR cigs will prevail for much period, though some places (APN/MBL) may improve to VFR Thursday evening. Brief vsby restrictions also possible.

Northerly winds increase tonight and Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-342- 344>346.