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KEY MESSAGES

- Most impactful snow winds down this morning across E UP. Slick morning commute for some.

- Freezing drizzle possible at times today?

- An eventual transition to lake effect snow showers this afternoon/tonight through mid week with breezy conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Trough/energy just upstream of northern MI this morning will continue to aid the precipitation shield across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern upper. Combination of warm advection and differential positive vorticity advection will be the culprit, which will be moving east through the morning hours. Thus, the main precipitation shield will be waning from west to east as well. Tip of the Mitt into eastern upper and northeast lower will still see some lighter snows/brief wintry mix during this time, with a couple of inches of additional snow from ~Whitefish and Paradise up towards Sault Ste Marie.

Main energy/trough axis will be right on its heels, with cold advection midday into the afternoon hours behind the associated sfc frontal boundary. Unique scenario potentially unfolds, with a chance for lake effect snow showers but also a period with drizzle/freezing drizzle also not out of the question. In regards to the snow potential, marginally deep inversion heights will keep most of the lake effect accumulations on the lighter end of the spectrum, but elevated boundary layer winds will allow for breezy conditions. Main vort max finally moves southeast through the night, which may cause a cluster of snow showers within its cold pool/lift aloft. We'll see if that materializes or even remains over land. Otherwise, expect more of the same into the overnight hours with continued lighter lake effect snows across northwest snow belts.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Wintry Impacts:

Not a ton of snow accumulation during and beyond the morning hours today. Perhaps an additional 1 to 2 inches for portions of eastern upper, but the main point will be the slick and slippery morning commute. In regards to icing, still questionable on the spatial extent (which would largely be over by the morning hours, at least in the freezing rain portion), but all it takes is a glaze/non zero icing for concerns.

Upon second glance, there is actually a little more nuance to the forecast today, seemingly. There may be both a brief window during the morning where low level saturation is deep enough (~1km) while the sfc temps remain below freezing for freezing drizzle to develop across isolated portions of northern lower Michigan. But also, after the frontal passage, saturation deepens to around 1 km/-10C once more with sfc temps below freezing. Thus, there may be a scenario for freezing drizzle in spots this afternoon as well after the cold advection. Looks like the best potential for freezing drizzle via progged soundings might be for the typical favored northwest snow belts. This is a relatively low confidence forecast on my part to be completely transparent, with plenty of conditions that may or may not be met (will the depth and overall saturation within the 0-1 km layer be sufficient, how quickly does the layer cool at the top of the boundary layer, are sfc temps a degree or two above freezing most areas, etc). Given this, will more than likely let the northern lower MI WWYs expire at 15Z, and extend the E UP zones through 18Z. The progged soundings for the SOO looked to support a little deeper moisture, perhaps indicating a slightly higher potential for freezing drizzle. For those traveling this Tuesday morning, and really through much of the day, be a little more cognizant if possible.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northwest flow in wake of the system system impacting the region today will produce lake effect snow showers for northwest snow belts. Quick look at progged soundings shows inversion heights ~1km/850 mb extending up within only a portion of the DGZ (via some model guidance). Thus, expect lake effect snow showers at times on Wednesday with most being on the lighter side. One other note, boundary layer winds ~25 to 35 mph will mean breezy conditions during this time as well. Spatial coverage wanes Wednesday night into Thursday, with generally quiet conditions for most Thursday through at least Saturday.

Late this weekend into early next week continues to revolve around a west to east moving piece of energy across the southern half of the CONUS. ENS guidance probabilities for MSLP < 1005 mb show a bimodal spatial distribution of relative maxes/higher probs (at least the 12-18Z guidance did). Just about all of the ENS guidance now suggesting a suppressed storm track, which makes sense given the height pattern across the northern portions of the US and southern Canada. Thus, there is a least a somewhat favored solution at this time. GEPS remains the most aggressive with this system, due to the stronger northern pieces of energy which interact with this southern piece. All this to say, leaning towards the more suppressed storm track, but there is still plenty of time for these atmospheric pieces to be sampled which could alter the exact sfc reflection.

I know this is in fantasy land so to speak, but taking a peak at the long range guidance mid-late next week shows some hellacious energy digging into the Intermountain West. Perhaps the first signs of the windy/dusty season, aka Spring, down in southwest NM and far west TX? Not entirely sure about that (although PNA turns negative within all guidance) and not that Desert Southwest weather is any indication of Upper Midwest weather by any stretch of the imagination, but perhaps, if you squint, there is a slight glimmer of hope after all.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 607 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs currently in place across the eastern U.P. and parts of far northern lower Michigan will spread south this morning as a front sweeps across the area. Drops to IFR VSBYs are expected over the next several hours across the eastern U.P., eventually improving by late morning/early afternoon as heaviest snow ends. Light snow showers and possible freezing drizzle may linger into this afternoon across northern Michigan. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs are expected to settle in across most areas later this afternoon into tonight. Northwest winds between 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts are in store for this afternoon and tonight after the front passes through.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-020>030-033>036-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...None.