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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances ending this evening. Next chance for organized rainfall arrives the middle of next week.

- Lower humidities ahead but temperatures generally staying at or above normal for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Rather typical summer time pattern expected through the next several days. The faster flow is expected to remain north of the lower 48 states, which happens more often than not this time of year. The flow across the lower 48 states, including the Great Lakes region, will generally be weak and frequently zonal. Weak troffing will settle in over the eastern third of he nation to start the new week, with accompanying weak surface high pressure in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. The next noteworthy disturbance of consequence is currently forecast to slide across Canada around midweek, pushing a frontal boundary through the Great Lakes later Wednesday into Thursday. This disturbance/front should result in the next organized threat for rainfall.

Forecast Details: Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will linger into this evening across parts of the forecast area, mainly south of M-72 and east of US-131. This convection should fade with the loss of diurnal heating and should not be impactful to planned fireworks displays this evening.

Somewhat cooler and less humid air than has been seen the past week will settle across the area to start next week. This is expected as weak upper-level troffing develops overhead and persistent north to northeast low-level flow continues off of Canada. This should result in minimal precipitation chances through Tuesday once we get past this evening.

The next more widespread chance of showers and storms arrives later Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal boundary is forecast to cross the region. Would night be surprised to see the timing/placement of this front to change over the next few days as most of the energy driving it will be well north of the area.

Despite the cooler and less humid air settling into the area the next couple of days, the upcoming week will still see temperatures at or above normal for the most part. The warmest/most humid period of the week should be Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 743 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Outside of fog/low clouds, aviation forecast looks quiet this evening, with lesser shower chances moving forward. Periods of higher clouds may limit fog chances. But fog-prone MBL will have a chance for some light fog late tonight. Otherwise mostly VFR. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.