textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds, patchy fog and times of light to moderate rain continue through Saturday morning

- Marginal risk of severe storms for northern lower MI later tonight through Saturday morning

- Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding risks along area rivers and in low spots tonight into Saturday

- Above normal temperatures Monday, then mixed precip chances and colder temperatures with the next system arriving midweek

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Current a warm front (seen in surface observations) extends over the southern MI border, and is continuing feed warm and moist air northward into MI. Low clouds, patchy fog and light rain will continue through the evening and night tonight for northern MI. A negative phase PNA upper pattern is resulting west-southwest flow around the ridge over the northern plains and Great Lakes region. In the mid to lower levels, winds over the south are converging over the southern Mississippi River (AR/OK) and funneling ample gulf moisture northward.

Surface temperatures over northern MI remain in the mid 30s to 40s, and will continue to remain here (even warm a few degrees in some spots) as the warm front continues to move north this evening and tonight. Besides the frontal boundary itself and isentropic lift, the larger forcing mechanisms and better elevated instability will arrive later tonight (near midnight) and linger into Saturday morning. Times of embedded thunder still remains possible before midnight, however it should remain isolated and disorganized.

As the upper jet strengthens, the right entrance region will move over eastern upper and NW lower. As this occurs, a cold front will be approaching northern MI. With deep gulf moisture in place, some elevated instability (100 to 400 j/kg), and strong shear, a marginal risk exists for severe thunderstorms as clusters of heavier rain/thunderstorms move across northern MI in a quasi- linear fashion. A few embedded stronger cells could exist in this environment, with the main threat being heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding in low lying areas and along area rivers. The secondary threats (less likely) are severe hail and wind gusts. Small hail will likely be seen with the stronger storms (some drier air and elevated instability does exist in the hail growth zone on some model soundings). Stronger wind gusts also have a chance to reach the surface, punching through a near surface inversion that will likely still be present as these storms move through.

Heavy rain potential on an existing snow pack does lead to concerns for flooding, and the Sherman forecast point on the Manistee river is highlighting it will rise to minor flood stage later Saturday. Around 5 to 15 inches of snow depth still resides around NW lower, where the heavier precipitation will likely fall. With a decrease in expected activity before midnight tonight, QPF amounts have remain steady or even decreased by a couple tenths in spots. Uncertainty always exists with convective precip tho, and spots longer duration moderate rainfall can materialize before midnight will be at risk for some nuance/minor flooding in low lying spots and area rivers. Very low chances for this to be a widespread issue.

Expected Rain Amounts - Local amounts up to +1.00" NW lower: 0.5" to 1.00" NE lower: 0.25" to 0.5" Eastern Upper: 0.50 to 0.75"

Winds turn northwest breifly Saturday with chances for weak showers through the afternoon hours. Even with a brief post-frontal cool down, high temperatures remain above normal through Monday.

The next system starts to impact the area Tuesday. A colder airmass over CAN will collide with the warmer airmass in place. Higher uncertainty exists in what the precip will look like, however guidance has shown signal for rain/snow or even times of mixed precip Tuesday into mid week. As the system passes, some spots should see accumulating snow and colder temperatures return.. lingering through the end of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Grungy, showery, conditions through much of this period with embedded thunder tonight. First round of -RA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening, with another round later tonight into Sat morning. Best chance for VCTS tonight into Sat morning between roughly 07 and 12Z. CIGs largely between 002-010 through the entire period with VSBYs fluctuating between 1 and 3 SM, locally lower at times within denser FG. In addition, lower level winds increase with wind shear between 30 and 45 knots this evening and tonight across the terminals.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.