textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return for this weekend into next week.

- Extended period of unsettled weather later this weekend into next week with several rounds of showers and storms possible. Locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The upper flow flattens out over the next several days as the southern ridge expands eastward and shortwave energy ejects out of a deepening Pacific northwest trough. After quieter late week weather, warm air advection with increasing PWATs will bring unsettled weather back into the Great Lakes. Several shortwaves will ride along a quasi-stationary boundary layed out across the area, resulting in several rounds of precipitation potential. Temperatures will be on the way up, with above normal readings likely over the weekend into next week as the thermal ridge expands north and east.

An isolated shower possible closer to Lake Huron through early this evening. That activity should dissipate fairly quickly, with a good radiational cooling night setting up with clearing skies and light winds. Many interior locations will dip into the 40s (50s lakeshore) with even a few upper 30s possible in the typical colder locations. Areas of fog also likely in low lying areas. Quiet weather Friday as high pressure slides across the area with lots of sunshine and temperatures generally in the 70s.

Question marks increase as we head into the weekend as developing warm air advection brings deeper moisture into the Great Lakes. This will eventually bring PWATs of 200% of normal to the northern Great Lakes with rounds of showers/storms moving across the area. Saturday remains questionable as to how dry (or wet) it will be, as some models hold back the deeper moisture until Saturday night and Sunday. The current thinking will have lower rain chances during the day on Saturday, increasing Saturday night into Sunday. As shortwave energy ejects out of the deepening western trough and moves eastward into the Great Lakes in fast upper flow, expect several rounds of shower/storms chances for later in the weekend into the first part of next week. This has some classic signatures for heavy rain potential with an 850mb front layed out across the area, near parallel upper level flow to a quasi-stationary surface boundary, and deep moisture. Much of northern Michigan sits in marginal excessive rain potential for Sunday and Monday. Despite the rain chances, temperatures will trend above normal through this time as the thermal ridge expands north and east.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Low VFR to brief MVFR conditions hang on for another hour perhaps for KAPN before clearing from west to east. Consequently, dry conditions expected through tonight and into Friday. Breezy northwest winds continue as well this afternoon, generally 10G15- 20KTs, decreasing tonight. Cannot rule out some patchy fog, esp KPLN and KMBL, but not overly confident at this juncture. VFR continues into Friday with light northwest winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347- 348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.