textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for showers today

- Better chance for rain/storms Wednesday into Thursday

- Warmer and more active weather ahead for the weekend and beyond...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge axis centered over the Desert SW but extends up into the PacNW attm...as broad upper low swirls over Saskatchewan with lobes swinging through Alberta and MT, triggering a surface low along the US-Canadian border. Low-level warm advection helping to build a sharp ridge over the Upper Midwest and Manitoba ahead of this...allowing high pressure to ooze into the Upper and Mid MS Valleys and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level return flow through the Plains drawing some better moisture northward into central Canada (pwats around 1in), with some convective activity noted across the Dakotas into the southern Canada ahead of aformentioned surface low. Best moisture (pwats 1.5-2 in or better) stretches along a baroclinic zone from OK through the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast and up into the Mid Atlantic region...ahead of a sharp trough axis in the southern stream, and the bulk of the convective activity is focused near and along this front. What remains of our pesky upper low is now quite broad and centered over western Quebec, with an axis stretching back through Ontario, with largely northerly flow allowing for some drying (pwat on the 0z/23 RAOB here was 0.48in...on the low end of climo for mid-June); things remain a bit cool by mid-June standards as well, with 850mb temps around +8C at coldest beneath both Canadian upper lows...resulting in high temps topping out in the mid 70s yesterday where downsloping was prevalent.

Subtle bit of PV approaches the area this morning...some influence of the trailing northern stream energy, and a bit of what is currently over the Northern Plains. Some influence of the next system will already be sneaking in from the west/northwest by later this afternoon and especially tonight...as PV over Saskatchewan pinwheels into the Upper Midwest...drawing some height falls back into northern Michigan this afternoon...which could lead to a little mild cloud cover today, especially for northeast Lower MI...though high pressure will attempt to hold on. Warm advection activity enters the scene tonight into Wednesday...as what remains of the upper low swirls into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes through Thursday, resulting in a broad area of pressure falls across the region...lingering a weak BCZ across the region as flow briefly turns zonal. Subtle ridging possible Friday ahead of another perturbation crossing the central continent; this could drift in and bring us some activity later Friday. Expect pattern to buckle this weekend as upper low digs into the PacNW, developing a notable surface low over the central US...resulting in ridging and high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes...perhaps into eastern Canada. Quite a bit of uncertainty attm in evolution of the pattern for the remainder of the weekend into early next week, throwing a little uncertainty into the heat idea, though warming trends are likely overall...and will otherwise expect active weather across the middle of the country, potentially into our region as well.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Low chance of showers today?... Around a hundred joules of CAPE possible today, particularly across the interior and northeast Lower where there should be a better shot at diurnal heating, and where some lake breeze action could come into play (and perhaps some subtle forcing with tail end of the exiting upper low). If diurnal heating is aggressive enough, not entirely out of the question some localized area could get warm enough to sneak past the inversion around 650mb...though it would have to get very warm/moist with some better forcing for any deep/robust updrafts to occur. Anything that does develop should pulse up and down reasonably quickly, given weak flow through the mid levels; this could lead to brief enhancement of showers/cells by outflow boundaries. All this being said...do wonder if incoming high clouds from upstream PV will have enough oomph to limit diurnal heating a bit and perhaps limit shower chances.

Rain/storm chances Wednesday through Thursday... Expect increasing theta-e advection across WI later tonight, though it will likely take a bit for low-levels to moisten given less favorable low-level wind direction and antecedent dry air mass. Still, will be looking for some development upstream overnight into the early morning hours, with shower/storm chances increasing from west to east. Not entirely sold on surface based activity, noting we may struggle to get much in the way of diurnal heating Wednesday, though not impossible. However...with increasingly warm/moist low-levels...and cooling mid-levels as the PV max approaches...anticipate elevated instability should be on the increase through the day...with dry slot aloft approaching late which could boost convective instability as well late Wednesday afternoon/evening, with thunder chances likely continuing through the night. A few to several hundred joules of elevated instability are possible, depending on how much the mid- levels cool off. Not a ton of deep-layer shear to work with given relatively weak flow through much of the column, though there are signals for 500mb winds to increase going into Thursday morning, particularly to our south, which could indicate a better shot at storm organization if everything aligns (not a certainty attm).

There is a chance at some heavier rainfall with this system, noting that pwats should approach 1.5in amid some weak stability and synoptic forcing...though more focused forcing (convective complex, fgen, gravity waves, etc) could certainly help squeeze a bit more out of the atmosphere. For now...signals point toward potential for the heavier rain to split around us and/or track to our south...but not impossible better rainfall could occur across northern Lower. Expect rain showers and perhaps some thunder will linger into Thursday, particularly with potential for some PV/troughing in the vicinity and lingering moisture, especially the further north you go.

Potentially warm but active this weekend into early next week...signals for amplifying ridge across the central/eastern US still point towards a warming trend overall, noting signals for the 590dm 500mb height contour to be somewhere in the Midwest/OH Valley...and some potential for 850mb temps rising well into the teens C, if not higher. However...think that we will be close enough to the perimeter of the ridge that any convective activity could keep us cloudier and thus, cooler than what we could otherwise achieve, especially Sunday into Monday. Humidity should be on the increase, however, which will make it increasingly uncomfortable either way...with strengthening return flow expected across the central US/Midwest. Setup also appears increasingly favorable for increasing instability and thus, convective activity going into early next week (perhaps vigorous convective activity at that)...though guidance is attm struggling to resolve placement of PV maxes (probably convectively induced) in the flow. Attm, the warm/active idea looks to carry into the end of the month and start of July, with signals for the pattern to flip more troughy across the western US/Canada.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Still expecting primarily VFR conditions through the period under mostly clear skies...with just some high based cumulus and some thin higher level clouds. However, still need to watch for a brief period of fog/mist toward sunrise, especially at KMBL. If fog/mist do develop, it will quickly mix out after sunrise. Light northwest to north winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.