textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Favorable fire weather conditions continue today through the midweek. -Seasonably cool temperatures today through the rest of the week will consistently bring frost/freeze concerns across Northern Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Large scale midlevel low pressured centered over Hudson Bay with deep troughing extending through the eastern half of the CONUS. Surface level low pressure with an attached cold front that delivered last nights precipitation will continue to progress northeast, resulting in cool cP air from the north to occupy the Great Lakes Region today. As a result, climatologically cool temperatures return to the CWA through the remainder of the work week. 850mb temperatures at or below freezing will keep highs in the 40s and 50s while overnight lows stay in the 30s. Besides the overnight frost/freeze concerns, conditions remain quiet today and Wednesday as the trough base remains directly overhead of the Great Lakes region and a midlevel jet max positioned over the Ohio Valley keeps any moisture to the south. Light precipitation returns to the forecast toward the end of the week as the aforementioned trough axis progresses eastward and causes waves of energy to track across the northwoods.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire weather concerns continue today... Cool air being pulled into the CWA today on the backside of last night's cold front via cold air advection remains atmospherically dry in the low levels. Latest CAM guidance depicts dew points falling quickly into the 20s this morning along with lingering strong low level winds to efficiently mix down this afternoon. Even with highs in the low 50s for most areas today, breezy afternoon surface gusts combined with RH values near critical thresholds will continue concerns for favorable fire weather conditions this afternoon. Afternoon dew points in the low 20s/upper teens remain likely this Wednesday and Thursday as well due to atmospheric moisture remaining cut off to our south by the aforementioned jet max.

Seasonably cool temperatures through the rest of the week with frost/freeze concerns... H8 temps tied to well advertised troughing regime remain at or below freezing today through Friday. Adiabatic heating processes keep highs in the 40s and 50s for the next few days. Mostly clear skies will support efficient radiational cooling process to drop overnight lows into the upper 20s/low 30s tonight through Thursday night. Longwave midlevel troughing then shifts eastward, rising heights over the Great Lakes Region and pivoting small waves of energy over the northwoods. Light lingering precipitation returns this Thursday and Friday along with returning the Great Lakes region back to climatologically normal temperatures for early May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR expected through the TAF period Occasionally breezy west-northwest winds expected mid-morning through this afternoon before winds turn calm this evening through toniht.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.