textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Frigid cold gives way to moderating temperatures

- Only minor snow accumulations expected in most areas through early next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 219 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Large vertically stacked upper low off the coast of New England with spokes of upper level energy/moisture continuing to pinwheel into the northern Great Lakes. The overall pattern is becoming more nebulous with time as synoptic forcing gives way to more mesoscale mischief. Land breeze development will push residual lake effect snow shower activity toward the coasts this evening, eventually focusing things largely offshore as the night progresses. Before things focus more offshore, minor snow accumulations and areas of reduced visibility possible in some coastal areas on Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. The big story tonight - frigid cold. Mainly clear skies over interior areas with light winds and ample snow pack will allow temperatures to plummet. Interior areas likely -15 to -20 degF, with colder pockets of -20 to -30 degF. Because of this, a cold weather advisory issued for the entire CWA.

An area of deeper 850-500mb moisture pivots southward into northern Michigan on Friday associated with a mid level shortwave, likely bringing an uptick in light snow shower activity during the afternoon. Accumulations will generally be light, less than one inch in most areas (A little higher amounts possible along the immediate Lake Michigan coast from Empire to Manistee). We will also have to watch for any possible mesolow development - always a possibility with these very cold conditions and light wind patterns. Another very cold day, with highs in the single digits to mid teens.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 219 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

We become increasingly under the influence of a large, 1040mb high pressure area across the center of the CONUS. This will bring an overall drier airmass with modifying temperatures into the northern lakes. Some lingering lake effect snow shower activity possible early in the weekend, especially near the coasts. But that should dissipate with lowering inversions and gradually drier air. Another weak and relatively moisture starved shortwave slides into the area later Sunday into Monday, bringing a period of warm air advection light snow and minor snow accumulations to the area. Some minor lake effect snow possible thereafter, although that may be limited given the ever expanding Great Lakes ice cover. Energy will eject out of the southern plains and move toward the Ohio Valley for midweek, which could put northern Michigan on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. Something to watch in the coming days. Temperatures will generally be near or below normal throughout the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 538 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions tonight with varying amounts of cloud coverage. Low level moisture increases from the north tomorrow, spreading low end VFR to MVFR cigs across the taf locations. May see some pockets of light snow showers as well with this moisture, but coverage appears to minimal to include at this time. Light winds tonight become north to northwest on Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...None.