textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Slow moving cold front will continue to kick off some showers and embedded thunderstorms into early Thursday.

- Dry and seasonably warm weather to end the work week, with periodic shower and storm chances returning for the weekend into the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Cold front making ever so slow progress east across our area today, producing area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms as it does so. Heaviest rain remains off to our southwest in area of much more robust deep layer moisture convergence and area of better mid level support. Mid level troughing driving this east moving front centered across central NOAM...bookended by southwest Conus and west Atlantic centered ridge axes.

Cold front will continue to work off to the east, exiting stage right Thursday morning. Otherwise, large scale flow regime described above remains essentially steadfast, with mid level troughing controlling our weather through the weekend. Some hints northern Conus flow becomes a bit more zonal in flavor heading into next week as central NOAM troughing attempts to relax.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain evolution through Thursday morning. Focus shifts to temperature trends and addressing additional chances for wet weather for the remainder of the period.

Details:

Still expecting at least a few rounds of showers with some embedded thunderstorms to rotate northeast along and ahead of the front tonight into Thursday morning. Focus for rain will slowly pivot southeast, likely centering near or a bit south of the Saginaw Bay area by later tonight and early Thursday. This will be the area most under the gone for some significant rain potential as additional waves, some convectively enhanced/produced, rotate up across that region. Guidance derived soundings confirm this heavy rain potential, with saturated conditions through the entirety of the vertical, with some limited cape through this moisture rich environment likely supporting periods of efficient rain processes. Definitely not looking at any widespread heavy rains, but wouldn't be at all surprised to see some local areas receive up to and over an inch of rain by sunrise Thursday. Otherwise, expect a gradual drying trend from northwest to southeast across our forecast footprint area heading through the overnight. Threat for rain looks to end during Thursday morning as front and mid/upper level support pivot off to our southeast. High pressure looks to follow, bring dry and seasonably mild weather to end the week.

Uncertainty remains significant for this weekend into early next week, especially with regards to timing and placement of any embedded lower amplitude waves traversing much broader longwave troughing. Best course of action is to continue with at least chance shower/storm wording Saturday through Monday. As expected, temperatures are trending a bit cooler for this period, with highs mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. Wouldn't be surprised to see these temperatures trend down even a bit further, especially if some of the more cloudy and showery scenarios come to fruition. Little doubt exact details for this weekends/early next weeks weather will change in the coming day as timing and location of waves become better realized.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Have been dealing with mostly MVFR conditions throughout the day...except for prevailing IFR at MBL (pocket of colder water in the Lake Michigan nearshore may be aiding in some advection fog development)...and mainly VFR at KCIU. Expectation is for another round of rain to develop during the late afternoon/ evening given deep moisture in place and increasing forcing. Anticipate a return to IFR conditions at the northern Lower terminals between the rain and fog/stratus redevelopment overnight. Conditions will improve Thursday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.