textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and storms Wednesday through Thursday.

- Warming trend later this weekend into next week, although remaining active at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

High pressure off to the west tonight, and thus a weak pressure gradient will be overhead. Although there could be a little patchy fog tonight across northwest lower, the signal is not very robust and the gradient may keep the low levels mixed enough to limit fog potential. Regardless, it would be for a very brief period during the pre-dawn hours.

Disturbance passes to the north later tonight into Tuesday, with high pressure building in from the northwest during the daytime hours. Temps overall remain within a few degrees of Monday as a result. An isolated shower or two perhaps in the vicinity of Saginaw Bay near the lake breeze Tuesday afternoon? Significant subsidence likely limits this potential, certainly not impactful either way.

Robust short wave digs into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night, shifting east on Wednesday into portions of the Great Lakes. Instability axis later Tuesday into Wednesday expected west of Lake Michigan in Wisconsin, as it normally is, and thus showers and storms will fire off in response to the feature aloft and associated low pressure system/frontal features. Consequently, this activity may drift eastward into Michigan on Wednesday, in addition to additional shower and storm development by the feature aloft and approaching low pressure system. Instability looks minor on Wednesday, and so not currently expecting a severe threat through the afternoon. Disturbance and sfc low move east through the night with minor elevated instability, but also increasing shear especially the farther south you go in northern lower MI. Delicate combination overnight that can sometimes surprise, but hard to tell at this time the exact extent of the convective potential overnight. The lack of robust instability is a limiting factor.

The vort max and trough axis slowly works southeast with time into Thursday and passing into northern MI through the day. This will result in additional showers and storms on Thursday. Better instability is progged Thursday afternoon, and thus probably the better potential for thunderstorms, especially across northeast lower Michigan. Current guidance progs a modest combination of bulk shear and instability which, if realized, may result in a few strong storms (given the setup remains and storms do fire off).

Heights rise this weekend, especially the second half, into next week in response to deep troughing across the Pacific Northwest. Consequently, temperatures will warm into the 80s for portions of the area. That being said, this energy and any associated sfc reflections will shift eastward with time, resulting in the chance for showers and thunderstorms within this warmer and more humid pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions look to persist through the issuance period with perhaps a few pop up showers this afternoon into the evening. Northwest winds remain breezy through the afternoon, becoming light tonight. With this, we may see some fog/mist/stratus develop toward sunrise for terminals west of I-75 Tuesday morning as clouds clear and winds lighten... Have too low of confidence for this cycle to drop categories, so only began to hint towards this potential, but kept the dropping conditions for KMBL due to previous trends from past nights.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.