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KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory tonight across interior eastern Upper, with patchy frost possible across interior northern Lower.

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue, with a gradual slight warmup into the low 70s into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Drier air will continue to filter into northern Michigan this afternoon as Canadian high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Northeast winds will remain breezy at times as cooler air settles south across the region, continuing high swim risks across portions of the Lake Huron shoreline through Tuesday. Tonight, clearing skies and lighter winds allow the colder airmass to to drop temperatures into the 30s. As a result, frost has the potential to develop across the typical colder interior locations, with the greatest potential across eastern Upper where lows fall into the low to mid 30s. A Frost Advisory has been issued for eastern Upper for tonight into Tuesday morning, while frost development across interior northern Lower has more limiting factors for development due clouds and elevated winds potentially lingering longer... However, if cloud cover and winds decrease more than expected across northern Lower, then some additional frost headlines would likely need to be added.

High pressure will then remain the dominant feature through much of the week, resulting in a prolonged stretch of dry weather across northern Michigan. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures are expected through Thursday, with highs generally in the 60s. Temperatures will gradually moderate slightly late week as surface high pressure shifts east and weak return flow allows milder air back into the region, with locations looking to reach the upper 60s to low 70s Friday into the weekend.

Rain chances remain minimal through the period, with the dry airmass and persistent high pressure keeping better precipitation chances west and south of the area. Some guidance continues to suggest a weak shortwave may lift out of the northern Plains late this weekend, potentially bringing a chance for showers. However, confidence remains low given the limited moisture available across the region and the potential of the wave weakening. As such, thinking northern Michigan should remain dry through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR likely to prevail for most, but occasional MVFR/near-MVFR cigs possible especially for APN and perhaps overnight at TVC/MBL. Winds remain ENE 5-15kts gusting 15-20kts thru the rest of the afternoon (CIU could turn more N/NE thru 0z) and should stay up around 5-10kts overnight...but could be light/vrb at CIU overnight. Not impossible PLN/TVC/MBL tries to turn more N/NNW this afternoon (lake breeze) but not likely. Think there will be fewer clouds around Tuesday to end taf period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for MIZ018-024- 030-036-042. Frost Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ086-087-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ348-349.