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KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering, generally light, lake effect snow showers today.

- Extended period of above freezing high temperatures late this week into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper trough continues to move southeastward with time today across the Northeast. Low pressure system follows suit, with weak sfc/lake troughing slowly moving into the region today. Consequently, marginally cold northwest flow expected, enough for a isolated to scattered lake effect snow showers to linger across northwest snow belts. Modest pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions today as well.

Quick moving short wave within the northwest flow aloft will skirt by just to the northeast/east of northern MI on Friday, with most if not all of the area remaining dry. Energetic atmosphere this weekend, with plenty of northern stream and southern stream short waves, but the overall split flow and generally rising heights will keep any southern stream pieces well to the south. Quick moving moisture starved short wave will be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes region on Sunday.

Heading into next week, negative PNA pattern begins to show its prowess with deep west coast troughing. Heights rise in response across portions of the central and eastern CONUS, and thus mild daytime high temperatures are expected. No major precipitation chances through early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Impactful weather will remain quite low through this forecast cycle (today through early next week). Lighter lake effect snow showers across northern lower and eastern upper Michigan should not be too terribly impactful today, with locally +/- one inch through tonight (perhaps ~two inches across portions of western Mac). Suppose a more robust snow shower combined with the breezy conditions today could result in a brief, localized visibility reduction. In regards to POPs, could see northeast lower needing a little uptick in pops this morning through the midday hours due to sfc/lake troughing as some guidance indicates.

Increasing heights due to significant west coast troughing will result in an extended period of above freezing high temperatures likely starting Friday and remaining through at least the early to middle portions of next week. DESI NBM probs for >32F high temps are high (70-100%) Friday through Tuesday adding confidence to this idea. Impactful precipitation chances appear to be quite low through this time as well, although cannot completely rule out a minor chance for precipitation here and there. Perhaps the more widespread precip chance waits until ~mid week or so. Overall, a pretty quiet period forthcoming.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions across northern Michigan this afternoon due to shallow lake induced convection. Don't anticipate this changing into this evening...with an occasional drop to IFR visibilities (probably 2-3 miles) in some of the heavier snow showers. Eventually Sc expected to scatter out at a few terminal leading to VFR conditions...mostly likely at KCIU by midnight and then at KPLN/KAPN during the early morning hours. Not confident at all that clouds will thin at KTVC/KMBL with low level flow backing more to the north so will keep them prevailing MVFR into Thursday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.