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KEY MESSAGES

- Generally tranquil conditions tonight through at least Tuesday.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances return midweek. Locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level troughing is currently draped from western Quebec southwestward into the Great Lakes, mid- MS Valley, and Ozarks. This wave continues to gradually become displaced east tonight with rising heights over the western Great Lakes early this week. At the surface, expansive high pressure is sagging in from the north, with little change to this anticipated through Tuesday.

Focus turns to Wednesday-Thursday as mid-level height falls across the northern Lakes commence Wednesday. Upstream slow-moving boundary set to approach from the northwest during the day Wednesday, eventually crossing northern MI Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Return of deep layer moisture anticipated ahead of the boundary with growing potential for a return of showers/storms, including a locally heavy rain threat.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of impactful weather anticipated across northern Michigan tonight through at least Tuesday. Partly to mostly clear skies anticipated to prevail for much of this time frame with high temperatures Monday in the upper 70s to mid-80s before warming a handful of degrees for Tuesday. Not nearly as humid as it's been for much of the last week with daytime Tds largely spanning the 50s.

Deeper begins to return later Tuesday, and more so Wednesday. While some uncertainty still exists with timing, latest trends suggest by later Wednesday / Wednesday night, PWs are progged to rise to 1.75"+ across much of the forecast area, with a more humid/muggy feel as Tds creep back into the 60s area-wide. While shower chances may initially begin Tuesday night across portions of the eastern U.P., shower and storm chances are expected to hold off across much of northern lower until later in the day Wednesday - Wednesday night, and into Thursday morning. While there doesn't appear to be a glaring severe weather threat ahead of/along this boundary, locally heavy rain does appear to be a concern given the slow-moving nature of the boundary and aforementioned plentiful moisture (PWs up to +2 SD above the 30-year CFSR climatological mean centered around July 8th). WPC is currently highlighting much of northwest lower and the eastern U.P. in a slight risk for excessive rainfall during this time frame.

Longer range ENS guidance suggests we trend back to drier, cooler and less humid conditions toward the end of the work week into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the northern Michigan terminals through the 18Z TAF valid time. Building high pressure and the associated dry airmass will continue to have clouds diminishing heading into this evening. Winds will be on the light side, generally out of the northeast. Lake breeze influences will cause variation at some terminals into early evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.