textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasingly damp and mild

- Warm temperatures this weekend with widespread stratiform rain chances

UPDATE

Issued at 536 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Unfortunately, very light drizzle and mist has arrived a few hours earlier than initially anticipated. With temperatures still several degrees below freezing, do expect a period of freezing drizzle/mist/fog this morning...especially for areas east of Interstate 75 and south of M-32. Short-fused winter weather advisory issued in this area through 10 am this morning to account for local areas of slippery driving conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 206 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Flood of mild Pacific air continues to overspread much of central NOAM...driven by intense and elongated north Pacific upper level jet. Digging trough on the nose of this jet into the western Conus...with downstream ridge amplification centered right across the Great Lakes region. Again, another night of plentiful low level moisture trapped beneath stout H8 centered ridge driven subsidence inversion, resulting in widespread low clouds across the Northwoods. Those clouds and a increasingly modified deep layer thermal environment are keeping temperatures several degrees above normal with current readings mostly in the 20s.

Pacific jet will continue to keep large scale features rather progressive, with current overhead ridging sliding to the east coast by sunrise Friday as deep troughing spreads into the Intermountain West and central Plains. Maturing southwest flow between these systems will become increasingly directed into our region, bringing with it an increasingly moist and mild airmass (the perfect snow- melting combination unfortunately).

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and light rain/drizzle evolution.

Details:

Just some classic Spring-like weather as slowly maturing southerly flow sends temperatures above freezing today, with little if any temperature change heading through tonight. Moisture profiles slowly increase with time, but remain a bit disjointed through the vertical In addition, all more focused forcing remains detached to our west and southwest. Persistent isentropic upglide and that slowly increasing moisture supports at least some drizzle/very light rain potential...with that threat increasing from south to north this afternoon into tonight. Any rain amounts will remain very light, and warming temperature profiles negate much freezing rain/drizzle concerns. Likely to see some light fog/mist this afternoon and tonight as surface dewpoints exceed freezing above the snowpack. Highs today expected to top out in the middle and upper 30s, with readings tonight only falling a few degrees into the lower and middle 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 206 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Forecast Pattern:

By Friday morning A few shortwaves will be rotating around a larger upper level trough spanning from the west coast to the Great Lakes and bottoming out over TX. These shortwaves will reinforce WAA, allowing temperatures and surface dewpoints to rise for this weekend. Low clouds and intermittent light rain will be seen most of Friday, as the first wave approaches from the southwest. Widespread light to moderate rain chances will begin Friday evening/night as linger through Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will likely be limited to less than a quarter of an inch for this first round. High temperatures Saturday will likely reach into the 40s across the state. Between the rain, warm temps, and dewpoints in the high 30s to mid 40s - snow pack will be significantly reduced by late Saturday.

Another wave with a surface cyclone will track up the Ohio River Valley towards Lk Huron lake Saturday into early Sunday. Widespread light rain chances will return Sunday morning for northern lower and linger through the day. A deeper and negatively tilted upper wave help to deepen the survey cyclone as it continues north. Probabilistic guidance shows variations in the track of this feature, with some outliers tracking it closer to northern MI and producing more QPF. At this time, these are outliers but we will continue to monitor this. Monday night into Tuesday, another system from the southwest will move rain chances up to northern MI. As it exists to the east mid week next week, colder Canadian air will finally return overhead and bring back snow chances and cooler weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 608 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Flight conditions will continue to degrade, lowering to IFR from south to north across the taf locations this morning and afternoon...with these conditions continuing through tonight. LIFR CIGs cannot be ruled out at times, especially tonight. Otherwise, light southeast winds around 5 knots are expected to stay in place through the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ028>030-033>036-041-042. MARINE...None.