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KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures ahead, with readings several degrees above normal this weekend into next week.

- Watching more active weather potential heading into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

All systems a full go for a period of well above normal temperatures to sweep across the Great Lakes this weekend into next week. Maturing split upper level flow regime and a much more zonal flavor to the northern portion of this flow will allow much modified Pacific originated air to overspread much of central NOAM...and force a full retreat of any Arctic Air contribution. Much more robust and moisture robbing southern stream will also keep much of the active weather off to our south for the next several days. Some potential for more active weather to develop across the region toward the end of this forecast cycle as maturing western trough begins to eject energy into the central Plains.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Primary focus the next several days centers on upward temperature trends, with secondary focus on some very light snow concerns across eastern Upper Michigan Friday and the potential for more active weather to end the period.

Details:

Definitely still deep winter-like tonight, with initial clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds allowing a good to excellent nocturnal temperature response this evening. Temperatures potentially stabilize a bit overnight with some increasing clouds ahead of weak southeast dropping northern stream wave. Still...easily thinking widespread lows in the single digits are attainable across our colder interior locations...with readings in the teens next to those big waters. Said wave does bring the threat for a few light snow showers on Friday morning...especially for areas north of the big bridge. However, much bigger story Friday will be the development of the now much advertised return to above normal temperatures...with increasingly gusty southwest winds helping temperatures reach well into the 30s...with even some lower 40s possible on the south side of the sunrise side.

Weekend into early next week looks mild and relatively quiet (perhaps a few showers far north Monday?), with now well agreed upon guidance trends showing active southern stream influences remaining well south of our area. Thermal profiles are mild as Pacific originated air takes command...with top/down analysis easily supporting highs Saturday through Monday in the 30s to lower 40s each afternoon...with the warmest temperatures likely on Monday when modification reaches its peak. Overnight lows still a bit below freezing and afternoon dewpoints as well likely remaining below freezing should slow the snow melt. That, and lack of any widespread rain, should significantly throttle back on any widespread hydro concerns. However, will need to watch for ice break up on area rivers...perhaps leading to some short-lived ice jam concerns in restricted flow areas.

Uncertainty increases substantially heading into the middle of next week, with at least some support for a rather vigorous wave to eject out of the Intermountain West troughing into the Great Lakes region. Influence of northern stream flow will heavily dictate how far north the impacts of this system reach, with the full ensemble suite still having a wide range of possibilities. Necessary consensus blend utilization features precipitation chances later Tuesday right through Thursday, with precipitation type dictated by what could be a rather intense north/south thermal gradient. No doubt changes will occur in the coming days, and something just to keep an eye on leading up to that period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Ongoing MVFR CIG's at KMBL and KAPN will clear this evening. All TAF sites will remain VFR tonight into Friday morning. MVFR CIG's and VSBY's return to KCIU Friday morning as -SHSN move across the region. KAPN and KPLN will likely have periods of MVFR CIG's this Friday while KTVC and KMBL will remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.