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KEY MESSAGES

-Prolonged light snow will hover over Northern Michigan through Sunday morning. Accumulations of 2-5" expected across northern lower north of M-32.

-Multiple winter systems track across the Great Lakes Region, keeping weather active with rounds of accumulating snow at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current midlevel analysis depicts longwave troughing currently spanned across North America. Weather pattern begins to turn cooler today through the remainder of the forecast period as H8 temperatures remain below freezing. As a result, any precipitation will fall as snow through the next several days. At the surface, low pressure progresses towards Upstate New York. Low level troughing will remain over the Northwoods, combined with a mid level deformation zone stretching from northern Manitoba to Northern Michigan. This set up is conducive of creating a narrow band of snowfall over northern lower. This deformation zone is currently displayed on radar south of Grand Traverse Bay, but will likely shift north and eastward after 12Z. Snow showers will remain over Northern Michigan through Sunday morning before finally scouring out due to upstream high pressure.

A shallow ridge forms on Monday through Thursday over the western half of the CONUS. Snow chances continue at times through the remainder of the week as waves of energy crest the ridge. Latest ensembles depict a clipper system developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, tracking through the Great Lakes region Tuesday night, followed by another vorticity max passing through the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Prolonged light snow will hover over Northern Michigan through Sunday morning. Accumulations of 2-5" expected across northern lower along and north of M-32...Initial light snow will favor areas near and south of Grand Traverse Bay before shifting north and east, and favoring areas along and north of the M-32 corridor. As mentioned before, these set ups are conducive for light, somewhat steady snowfall spreading across a relatively narrow area. Accumulations remain light, with most areas north of the Bridge and south of M-32 observing between a trace to roughly an inch through tonight. A few areas within today's Winter Weather Advisory could see locally higher amounts as winds increase and turn northwest to northerly Saturday night, which combined with cold air advection creates a short period of lake enhancement to the snowfall.

-Multiple winter systems track across the Great Lakes region, keeping weather active...Small vorticity maxima develops over Western Alberta on Monday and progresses through northern Michigan late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Latest blends keep medium probabilities (40-60%) of 1-4" across the CWA. Guidance begins to struggle with a clear solution beyond midweek as continued shortwaves bring additional accumulating snowfall chances to northern Michigan. Storm tracks could change depending on if the baroclinc zone shifts. Too early to advertise accumulations, but we will continue to monitor this active period of weather and its potential impacts as we head through late February.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 556 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Generally MVFR to IFR today. Light snow will prevail at all TAF sites except CIU and MBL through the day today. During periods of heavier snow, LIFR CIGs and VSBYs may materialize. Light and variable winds through the day for all sites except MBL... where a few 15kt+ gusts may materialize during the day today. Winds then shift out of the N to NW tonight, with some 20kt+ gusts possible at TVC and MBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ016>018- 020>024-098-099. MARINE...None.