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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow chances exit this afternoon, followed by additional rain chances tonight.

- Brief rain/snow chances early Friday, especially near/south of M- 72; otherwise, mainly dry Friday-Saturday with moderating temperatures.

- Spring-like warmth Sunday-Monday, accompanied by renewed rain chances (locally heavy in spots) that may linger through the middle of next week. Watching potential for increased localized flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked ~1002mb low pressure sits over southern Manitoba early this afternoon with isentropically driven rain/snow showers progressing northeast across northern MI. Low pressure drifts across Ontario through tonight with this system's cold front bringing an additional band of rain tonight. This boundary settles to our south on Thursday, providing the focus for additional energy and associated precip chances to ride along later Thursday night/Friday morning, perhaps grazing southern areas of the forecast area with additional rain/snow chances.

Mid-upper level heights begin to rise later in the day Friday with expansive ~1035mb high pressure sagging in from the northwest. High pressure becomes centered squarely overhead Saturday morning with moderating temperatures. Spring-like warmth anticipated for Sunday into early next week, albeit with continued signals for a return of active weather and potentially periods of locally heavy rain at times, which may exacerbate flooding issues across parts of northern MI.

Forecast Details:

Initial warm advection driven snow/rain showers continue to slide northeast across the forecast area this afternoon -- expected to largely exit area-wide over the next few hours. Some additional minor snow accum likely in the eastern U.P. Sights turn upstream to an additional band of rain expected to cross northwest to southeast across northern MI tonight ahead of this system's approaching cold front. New QPF amounts tonight favored between a quarter to half an inch with highest probabilities for less than that across far east/southeastern areas. A fairly tranquil day expected to follow for Thursday, although suppose there's non- zero chances for a few isolated showers to linger across parts of the eastern U.P. -- too low of chances to explicitly include in the forecast at this time. High temps Thursday largely in the 40s, with some 50s in downsloping areas of northeast lower.

By later Thursday night into early Friday morning, focus turns to approaching upstream energy and attendant precip chances that should largely focus near the quasi stationary boundary to our south. Best chances locally for some inconsequential rain/snow showers during this time frame are largely near and south of M-72, with highest chances focused south across southern WI/northern IL and southern MI.

Friday night likely to be a chilly one across northern MI as upstream high pressure begins to settle overhead. Lows likely in the 20s for most, but some teens certainly possible in the typically colder spots. This prior to one of those often fleeting spectacular spring days on Saturday, featuring full sunshine and afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid-upper 40s far north and from the the upper 40s to upper 50s across northern lower.

Late in the weekend into early next week, upper high builds across the southeast CONUS with troughing becoming evident over the western third of the country. Moisture/instability likely to advect northward across the nation's midsection with PWs over an inch and dew points in the 50s locally by later Sunday into Monday, all while temperatures cruise into the 60s for most areas south of the bridge (50s north). With several waves of energy progged to trek through the central CONUS during this late weekend - early/mid next week time frame, will be monitoring potential for increasing rain and thunderstorms chances -- some of which may fall heavily at times and potentially exacerbate localized flooding issues/swollen rivers when combined with continued snow melt (especially across the far north and interior northern lower).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 826 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A vigorous area of low pressure will push a cold front across the northern Michigan terminals tonight. A period of rain is anticipated along/ahead of the front, but most areas won't see heavy rainfall. Most of the 00Z TAF valid time will see VFR conditions, but a period of MVFR condtions is possible as the rain moves through. The MVFR conditions should linger the longest at KCIU. Gusty southerly winds will trend westerly behind the front. Substantial LLWS is expected until the front clears the area.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.