textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms today...

- Rain and storms Wednesday into Thursday...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge getting squashed over the PacNW as a zonal 120kt upper jet noses into British Columbia (nice firehose of Pacific moisture into western Canada); broad troughing still holding onto the bulk of the eastern US/Canada, centered on a 540dm upper low over northern Manitoba. Northwesterly 80-100kt polar jet max on the back of the upper low, stretching from central Canada to IL and the OH Valley...and a zonal 120kt subtropical jet stretches from southern MO to VA...with much warmer and more moist air across the southeastern US (pwats in excess of 2in over the Gulf Coast states). Still several lobes of energy around the perimeter of the longwave trough...most notably over the Upper Midwest (a neat little spinny over central MN at 4z) and Saskatchewan...with a bit of energy over southern Ontario still sliding by to our north, loosely connected to said MN spinny...and some moisture is pooling along a loose WSW-ENE oriented boundary between these two features...with weakening stability across the area thanks to cooling aloft and some WSWly warm/moist advection in the lower levels (16C at 2z over western IA). Convection still ongoing ahead of this even as of 4z. 0C isotherm now to our north over northern Ontario...but some cooler (+8C) air wrapping around behind the aforementioned spinny in MN, aiding in a little better surface response (plus PV max is a little better defined)...with baroclinic zone stretching back northward into central Canada. Low-level col region over the central Plains with some weak lee-side troughing over southeastern CO.

Expecting showers/storms will be ongoing this morning ahead of PV maxima to our west. This should become negatively tilted with time as it swings across the state...resulting in continued chances for precipitation as surface cyclone occludes in the vicinity...ultimately fading out tonight as the PV max moves away and ridging builds in aloft. Upstream...will already be seeing influence of incoming PV max on the pattern over the central US/MS Valley, with surface cyclogenesis still forecast to occur tonight into Wednesday...resulting in anomalous, sub-1000mb surface low over the Upper Midwest by Wednesday morning (3 standard deviations below the mean...which is significant). Attm...this is expected to track generally eastward across the Midwest through the Great Lakes, with attendant rain/storms...exiting stage right by Thursday. Somewhat fall-like northwest flow prevails through the end of the week...with additional niblets of energy swinging through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night-Friday. The weekend forecast attm remains a bit unclear, pending the evolution of shortwave troughing over the central continent...though very broadly, it appears we could remain in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone into early next week...which could keep things a bit on the active side.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Showers/storms today...think we should see an area of showers/storms (or at least, mid-clouds) sneak in from the west early this morning (probably around 12z-ish)...though antecedent dry air mass could slow rain reaching the ground. Primary concern with this morning's activity is how much cloud cover it will leave around going into the afternoon; certainly possible it could keep the mid and low-levels more stable and reduce the threat of afternoon storms to some degree (though think we should still have some instability/weak stability aloft for this system to work with). Do wonder if the dry air could bust up the early morning clouds/convection quicker and lead to a quicker rebound in diurnal heating...which would result in several hundred joules of surface-based CAPE this afternoon as forcing aloft generally improves with the approaching trough axis. Will need to watch cloud trends today, to see if the better diurnal heating will be across NE Lower/Saginaw Bay region or across NW Lower in the wake of what moves in this morning...and think we will need to keep a close eye on things, even though better deep layer shear will likely be to our south. I have to wonder if we will end up with any persistent funky boundaries (watching one drape into the Tip of the Mitt as of 7z...but will it stick around??) that could enhance low- level directional shear, especially later today as the anticipated surface low passes through...but it is entirely possible I am overworrying about this latter idea.

Rain and storm threat Wednesday into Thursday....Sharp ridge axis tonight, with much drier air, suggests moisture with the next system may be a little slow to move in...but given that this should be a very dynamic system, don't think it will take too long to get going. This has a bit more of a look of a fall system than a mid-June system, with a well-defined and occluding low, strong jet aloft (100+kts) with signals for jet coupling in the region, along with isentropic ascent ahead of the low. Pwats in the realm of 1-1.5in with this setup is certainly a concern...particularly noting we could end up in the wraparound moisture area for a prolonged period...perhaps into 12z or so Thursday? Better moisture and forcing could certainly end up staying to our south...and anticipated vigorous convection to our south could rob at least some of the moisture away from us. Still some uncertainty in the exact track of the surface system...which throws uncertainty into the wind forecast (not impossible we could see sustained E/SE winds 15-20kts or more if we end up beneath the tighter pressure gradient...but also possible we could remain under a lighter wind regime. Given the setup, think we will still need to keep an eye on trends Wednesday afternoon/evening, when some better deep layer shear could be close to our southern border.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Elevated cumulus deck will build across the area today, although current trends support bases remaining well within VFR. Will likely see some showers/embedded thunderstorms develop out of this expanding cu field, with the most widespread coverage during the afternoon. Confidence on amount/coverage of embedded thunderstorms remains low, so will continue cover with just vicinity thunder wording. Of course, any thunderstorms will be capable of producing lower visibilities with brief heavy rain as well as some gustier winds. While showers dissipate this evening, trends support the development of MVFR producing low clouds from west to east overnight. Otherwise, light winds this morning become a bit gusty at times out of the southwest through the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-346.