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KEY MESSAGES

-Watching for elevated fire weather concerns today.

-Light rainfall returns this Saturday.

-Seasonably warm temperatures build next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A midlevel split flow pattern builds across North America this morning with shortwave ridging currently overhead and upstream troughing over the U.S. Subsidence aloft will result in one more day of relatively dry and quiet weather across the Great Lakes Region before precipitation chances build this weekend. The central U.S. trough will lift across the Midwest, with weak low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley.

A second 500mb ridge begins to build over the American Southwest this weekend and will progress across the CONUS early next week. This pattern will support surface high pressure and overall quiet weather from Monday through midweek next week. Warmer Pacific air influence is expected to build across the Great Lakes Region next week, causing surface temperatures to build warmer than normal through the remainder of the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Today...Surface high pressure remains settled directly over the Great Lakes region, providing one final day of relatively pleasant weather. Cloud cover will continue to build from the south across the CWA, with highs in the 60s for most areas. Only concern in terms of impactful weather will be the favorable fire weather conditions as dew point depressions increase in the afternoon. Critical RH values will likely be reached by midday for areas west of the I-75 corridor as east flow gusts into the mid/upper 20s.

Saturday and Sunday... A weak troughing pattern with attached surface low pressure will return rainfall Saturday afternoon. Latest CAM guidance depicts low pressure moving further to our southeast, favoring light stratiform rainfall for areas closer to Saginaw Bay while the northern half of the CWA remains mostly dry. QPF totals of a quarter inch or less are only expected for counties along the Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay Border while the remainder of the CWA will likely only observe a trace or so this Saturday. Low level moisture will continue isolated showers this Sunday, but again, most areas will likely observe overcast skies with only a trace of additional precipitation.

Monday through Thursday... The aforementioned ridging pattern builds over the Southwest U.S. this weekend and makes its way to the Great Lakes Region by Memorial Day. Subsidence aloft will support the continuation of high pressure and overall quiet weather. Warm air advection from a Pacific air influence over the Great Lakes Region will cause surface temperatures to gradually build next week. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s this Monday and then reach the mid 80s for most locations by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR. Plenty of dry air at low levels into Friday evening. Periodic mid and high clouds through Friday, but easily staying VFR. Just beyond this TAF period, cigs will lower, and rain chances arrives from south.

Light winds overnight, with breezy ese winds developing Friday. LLWS develops at TVC late Friday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 021>024-027>030-033>036-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ341-342.