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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating lake effect snow continues across northern Michigan today and tonight, particularly across Chippewa county.

- Additional snow chances across northern Michigan this weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 342 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Strong longwave troughing draped across much of the eastern half of the continent will gradually pivot east through tonight as embedded waves rotate through the main flow. A potent shortwave currently over the southern Great Lakes will punch across the Mid-Atlantic today as the associated surface cyclone treks along the St. Lawrence River. High pressure will build across the Great Plains and Midwest with subsidence on the backside of aforementioned troughing, keeping northwest to west winds in place across the Great Lakes as it is sandwiched between surface features.

Forecast Details:

Persistent, dominant lake effect snow banding has been disrupted over the past few hours with slightly changing wind direction and decreasing low-level moisture -- particularly across northwest lower. Strongest banding across the eastern U.P. has begun to refocus over far eastern Chippewa county near Sault Ste. Marie and north over parts of Ontario.

This area will be the primary focus for the short term period: Low chances exist for an additional 10"+ in the Sault Ste. Marie area through tonight with very minor changes in wind direction playing a pivotal role in amounts and associated impacts. Latest high-res guidance favors focusing heaviest banding over Sault Ste. Marie, bringing these aforementioned high-end totals. However, conceptual models lean current confidence toward heaviest banding setting up just north of Sault Ste. Marie across Ontario later this evening and tonight -- leading to lesser totals on the U.S. side. Belief is that where said high-res guidance places QPF/banding is slightly off kilter from where modeled low-level wind direction would lead to believe. This has been observed in past events, which places confidence more with where low-level winds would indicate banding setting up and less with explicit model QPF. To add, current heaviest banding appears it will set up over Sault Ste. Marie momentarily -- with further backing of low-level winds anticipated through the day. Will emphasize that these small differences are on the order of a few miles and would likely result in the difference of several inches of snow in Sault Ste. Marie.

All of this said, an additional 3-5" is expected across parts of Chippewa county where the Winter Storm Warning has been transitioned to a Winter Weather Advisory into this evening. Localized amounts of 6" or more will be possible, particularly near Sault Ste. Marie -- including previously mentioned low chances for 10"+ should heaviest banding focus over the area for an extended time through tonight. Light lake effect snow will also continue across parts of northwest lower Michigan with additional accumulations around 1".

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 342 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Longwave troughing will continue to pull away from the Great Lakes on Friday with relative weak west to west-northwest low-level winds in place -- and enough moisture to keep lake effect snow showers going across parts of the area through Friday afternoon. Any accumulation is expected to be light with the best chances coming across northern Chippewa county where an additional 1" or more may be possible. Chances are expected to diminish with time into Friday night.

The next round of more widespread snow chances looks to move into the Great Lakes in the Saturday afternoon-evening timeframe as a weak clipper targets the region. This system may bring an additional few inches of snow where the heaviest snowfall occurs, which will become more clear as Saturday draws closer. Another round of snow may impact the Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday as enhanced south- southwest low/mid-level flow drives warm advection/frontogenetic forcing aloft and associated precip chances. Given relatively weak forcing and this is still several days away, there's plenty of time for expectation to change as recent trends have already began to pull this swath of snow further south. Otherwise, highs mainly in the 20s and lows in the teens this weekend look to warm into the upper 20s/low 30s and upper teens/low 20s respectively for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Heaviest lake effect snow showers largely focused between northern lower MI TAF sites tonight. However, some heavier snow showers may continue to shift in and out of CIU through at least Thursday morning. In and out of low VFR/MVFR CIGs for most, with locally IFR/LIFR CIGs/VSBYs in heavier snow bands at CIU. Breezy west- northwest winds continue through the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ086- 087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ321-322.