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KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread mixed precip chances and gusty east winds Thursday. Increasing confidence in one to two tenths of an inch of ice over parts of norther lower and eastern upper. Temperatures warm above freezing from south to north during the day, curbing ice impacts.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm threat Thursday evening/night.

- Another round of precipitation Friday night - Saturday with colder and breezy conditions to wrap up the weekend.

- Occasional snow chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Quite the active spring pattern over the next several days. Initial focus on well-advertised wintry mix/ icing potential set to arrive very late tonight/early Thursday. This mid-upper wave wave currently dropping into the Four Corners region early this afternoon with some semblance of sfc low pressure development underway. This becomes much more obvious later this evening with low pressure deepening to around ~996mb by 12z Thursday over north-central/northeast KS. Upper wave becomes negatively tilted through the day Thursday with attendant sfc feature expected to trek northeast across IA during the afternoon and eventually into the eastern U.P. by later Thursday night. Cold frontal boundary of this system crosses northern MI Thursday night, however, quickly begins to retreat back north, effectively as a warm front, as our next system strengthens across the Plains -- set to bring another round of widespread precipitation (mixed in some areas) late Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond the cold frontal passage of this second system later Saturday afternoon/evening, colder air wraps back into northern MI for Saturday night through the end of the weekend. Gusty northwest winds and snow showers likely as well, most notably in the snow belts. Below normal temperatures and at least occasional snow chances continue through the end of the forecast period early next week.

Forecast Details:

Mixed precip/icing Thursday: Bulk of the focus will continue to lie with the Thursday system, both with respect to mixed precipitation/ icing potential and severe weather potential late in the day discussed below. Overall, not a ton of change to the previous shift's thinking, with the primary change being slower precipitation arrival. That said, initial precip chances arrive across far southwest/south-central areas between 09-12z and slowly shift northeast across the remainder of northern lower by late morning, and into the eastern U.P. midday/early afternoon. Slower precip timing owing to increasingly gusty east winds pumping dry air into the low-levels. That said, these east winds aiding to keep sfc temperatures below freezing for much of the forecast area upon precip arrival. As a result, latest trends still supportive of initial precip falling as primarily freezing rain across the bulk of northern lower before temperatures gradually rise above freezing from south to north through the morning. How quickly temperatures warm remains the primary uncertainty, although confidence continues to increase in a fairly rapid/steady rise with southern reaches of the forecast area only receiving a couple hours of potential freezing rain, while those M-32 and north (especially higher terrain) may hang on to near freezing sfc temps through midday/early afternoon.

In the eastern U.P., still a better chance of more mixed precip here despite precip arrival delay. Higher probabilities at least minor snow/sleet accums, especially near/north of M-28, although freezing rain likely to be the biggest impact across this area as well. Sfc temps hang at or just below freezing longer, perhaps late afternoon/early evening, before rising above.

All in all, icing amounts favored between one tenth and one quarter of an inch across much of interior northern lower with a coating to a tenth of an inch across far southwestern and southeastern northern lower where sfc temps are progged to rise earlier. Around a tenth or two of ice in the eastern U.P. (albeit lower confidence here), with up to an inch of sleet/snow with the highest probabilities for that near/north of M-28. Current plan is for widespread winter weather advisories, always allowing for a potential upgrade if something goes sideways in future guidance.

Severe weather threat late Thursday - Thursday night: Elevated instability expected to propel northward as this system treks into northeast WI/U.P. late in the day Thursday/Thursday evening. Latest progs support up to ~500 J/kg MUCAPE across northern lower with ample bulk shear in excess of 40 kts. Primarily a large hail threat as early as Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Lesser threat for strong winds given a rather stout warm nose; however, this erodes some across far southern reaches of the forecast area (fairly in line with SPC's D2 Slight Risk area). None-zero spin up tornado threat as well.

Friday night - Saturday precipitation: Hot on the heels of Thursday's system, renewed widespread precip chances return later Friday into Saturday. While the bulk of this system looks like plain rain, wintry mix/freezing rain chances do increase across the Straits and eastern U.P.

Colder with occasional snow chances late weekend into early next week: As Saturday's system treks northeast into Ontario/Quebec Saturday night, cooler air expected to pretty quickly wrap in on the backside of this system accompanied by increasingly gusty northwest winds for Sunday. Increasing chances for lake enhanced snow showers through this time, most prominently in the typical snow belts of eastern upper and northwest lower. Occasional snow chances and below normal temperatures continue into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Deeper moisture will continue to spread northeast across northern Michigan this morning...bringing a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain along with it. MVFR to IFR conditions expected through much of today with this precipitation. Likely to see some accumulating freezing rain this morning into early afternoon across northern lower taf locations, with precipitation transitioning to rain from south to north through the day. Wintry mix will hang on several hours longer at KCIU, likely taking to later in the afternoon to transition to rain. May hear a few rumbles of thunder as well across those northern lower taf locations this afternoon into this evening. Southeast winds become gusty today. Strong low level jet will bring widespread wind shear this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-023-024. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ020-025-026-032>036-041-042. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ021-022-027>030-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-342. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.