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KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold morning gives way to temps in the 10s and low 20s.

- System brings snow and a light wintry mix to the region later Monday into early Tuesday.

- Daytime high temps look to rise above freezing next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave ridging moves over northern Michigan today into tonight with largely quiet weather. In response, temps moderate with some areas rising into the lower 20s after a cold morning with sub zero readings for many. Any flurries this morning scrapping Manistee county and vicinity due to a band of warm advection and perturbation aloft will not be an issue, and has a good chance of staying off to the southwest of the region for most, if not all. Winds shift to the southeast today consequent of a sfc high pressure system sliding to our east. First hint of our next system to watch will arrive very late tonight, with a leading piece of energy and the beginnings of warm advection out ahead of the main clipper across Manitoba (by Monday morning). This lead, weaker, piece of energy will at most scrape far northern eastern upper with a few snow showers. Thereafter, the main trough and its advections will impact much of northern MI with some wintry precip.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Clipper system and its associated differential pos vort adv and warm air adv will produce a quick thump of precipitation later Monday/Monday night into early Tuesday. Best forcing will likely be maximized across the northern half of our county warning area, along with the best profile for snow. Wintry mix continues to look possible across portions of northern lower as warm nose aloft results in the potential for sleet/freezing rain. Pretty good agreement within model guidance for this potential, we'll just have to fine tune the best regions for the wintry mix though moving forward. Expect a couple of inches of somewhat wet snow from ~Tip of the Mitt northward, in addition to light icing across northern lower Michigan, which will cause disruptions.

After the clipper moves east of the region mid week, there will likely be lake effect to follow to some degree, esp Tuesday afternoon and night. General dry northwest flow aloft is expected during the latter portions of next week, keeping temps generally in the 20s. Guidance hints at rising heights thereafter, perhaps increasing temps into the 30s once more. Any appreciably impactful weather looks low to none late this week into the first half of next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 632 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Aside from lingering MVFR CIGs at MBL this morning, VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the issuance period. Mid cloud will continue to spread over the area from the west this morning into the afternoon, but may scatter out at times later today. Low chances exist for MVFR CIGs to move into APN late this morning/early afternoon, but current confidence is that APN remains VFR through the afternoon. Otherwise, light southeast winds become southerly tonight and increase to around 10 kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.