textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy through the week; heavy rain potential tonight into Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures early this week with some record highs in jeopardy...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 403 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging builds across the center of the country as sharp troughing plows into the western US. Abundant difluence over the Central Plains attm ahead of the base of the trough as PV maxima lifts across the Four Corners region into the lee of the Rockies. Strong southwesterly mid-level jet resulting in abundant Pacific moisture transport into the CONUS...with extremely anomalous pwats in the realm of 6-7 standard deviations above climo norms streaming into the Central Plains. Increasing southerly flow through the length of the Plains (40+kt LLJ) resulting in anomalous moisture wrapping over the ridge axis into southern Ontario, albeit to less extremes than out west (pwats generally running 2-4 standard deviations above the mean...which is still notable). 850mb temps rise into the teens again across the southern and central Plains...with the cold air slipping by well to our northeast over Quebec with troughing up there; cold front along the edge of this cold air drapes across Hudson Bay. 1033mb surface high over the Mid-Atlantic; with surface pressure falls congealing into a broad area of sub-1004mb over the eastern Rockies into the western Plains. A couple longitudinal cold fronts present with this system, through CO and NM ahead of the trough axis, and stretching from AZ northwestward into WY, with a stationary boundary stretching from here into southern Manitoba. Here in the Great Lakes...a warm day yesterday with overnight temps attm near or slightly warmer than last night; some semblance of warm/moist advection resulting in a little more fog/low-clouds around tonight, particularly across the EUP and Tip of the Mitt, downwind of Lake MI and also where more favorable moisture lingered all day.

Trough axis will continue to track eastward across the central CONUS today through midweek, driving surface pressure falls across the Upper Midwest through this period. Amid a very anomalously moist environment, expect heavy rain concerns across the Plains/Upper Midwest, with less certainty with eastward extent, which should be further away from the more robust synoptic forcing with this system. Upper trough may attempt to close off Tuesday into Wednesday before additional upstream energy kicks it eastward for the latter half of the week, dragging the trough axis across the area and bringing a little cooler air back into the region for the end of the week. Another wad of PV will punch its way across the northern CONUS later this week, with signals for troughing to try to settle into the eastern US again going into next weekend...though the evolution of this remains unclear.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain tonight into Tuesday (likely beyond as well)...think widespread rain could move in as soon as late afternoon for our Lake MI zones, but should begin to overspread the area after 0z, with chances lasting through the night, right on into Tuesday. Think the deepest moisture will lift northward through the area Tuesday morning, resulting in potential for a break in the more widespread rain...but given a stout saturated layer in the low/mid-levels, would not be surprised if we ended up with some drizzle around. The better forcing appears to remain to our north and likely just to our west tonight into Tuesday morning, and therefore, not surprised the EUP has been removed from the excessive rain outlook since yesterday morning's forecast discussion. Even so...some signals in deterministic guidance (increasingly in hi-res guidance as well) suggest a period of heavy rain will be possible across the central/EUP overnight...with as much as 0.50-1in of rainfall in 6hrs ending 12z Tuesday, which is much more than the current rainfall forecast suggests, though I have tweaked it up a tiny bit for now, in the realm of 0.30+in for that 6hr period, given the anomalously moist environment that will be present (pwats increasing to or above 1.5in) and signals for a theta-e advection maximum across the Yoop tonight; any localized forcing could certainly squeeze out quite a bit of moisture (incoming warm nose may also be a little more supportive of efficient rainfall production as well). Given drought conditions across the bulk of the UP attm, think an inch or so of rain will be helpful...do worry a bit about some hydro impacts up there if it all comes at once, noting some of our rivers are a bit flashy north of the Bridge.

Heaviest rainfall concerns should be tonight into Tuesday with this initial surge of warm advection ahead of the strengthening system upstream. Showery activity could hang out as the upper low slowly meanders eastward through the middle of the week. There appears to be another shot of rain with cold advection as the trough axis finally exits the region Thursday. This latter period has potential to support overlake instability as 850mb temps fall to or below 0C again going into Thursday night...though the atmosphere will not be quite as anomalously moist as Tuesday.

Mild temperatures continue...not expecting a ton of change overall in the air mass today vs yesterday, except that there should be more in the way of cloud cover around which could limit diurnal heating. We should be starting off a little warmer tonight than last night, suggesting we could end up a bit warmer than yesterday, particularly in south-flow downsloping areas (e.g., TVC, APN). Temperatures should reach into the 60s with some ease...though the question remains, will we tie or break more records today? Think we will come close, particularly for sites where record highs are only in the 60s...and those downsloping areas have a better shot... as well as our southeast, where there could be a little less in the way of cloud cover this afternoon. Even warmer air creeps in Tuesday -- 850mb temps around +12C; but not entirely confident in how warm we will get, given the potential for clouds to stick around, and that we may not mix deep enough for this warm of air to come into play. If we do...certainly would not be impossible for more of the area to rise into the 70s for highs (current forecast has these mostly focused toward our SE again)...and this would have a better shot at breaking records. Think we would need much more sun Tuesday than we are currently expecting for this, though.

Record high temps for today are as follows... GLR...69F/2022 ANJ...67F/1990 HTL...75F/1938 TVC...69F/1938 APN...75F/1933 PLN...72F/2022

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 559 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Early morning fog at CIU/PLN should burn off quickly with a few sprinkles or light showers around this morning; do not currently have this in tafs. Better chance for rain will be after 0z tonight, and esp after 3-6z. Expect primarily VFR cigs today, but should fall to MVFR and IFR or lower this evening and persist into Tuesday morning with some additional visby restrictions possible. SE to S winds today (could be more SW at MBL this afternoon) 5-10kts increasing to 10kts or more tonight; expect SSW 30+kt winds around 2kft or so and have thus included wind shear in tafs for tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.