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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snowmelt today will likely lead to ponding on roadways, with winds gusting around 50 mph at times and cooling temperatures this afternoon... Freezing temperatures may refreeze water on roadways leading to potential travel difficulties this evening/ tonight.

- Accumulating snow chances return this weekend.

- A bit cooler with more snow chances next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Patchy fog continues early this morning across parts of northern Michigan, with some locally dense fog observed in some locations. Temperatures will slowly cool through the day today but remain above normal as the departing system pushes east of the area. Ongoing rain will taper from west to east through the morning, with some rain potentially mixing with or breifly changing to snow late morning into the early afternoon as colder air works in. Given recent snowmelt combined with periods of rain, ponding of water on area roadways is likely at times, before precipitation diminishes by the afternoon.

Winds will become the more notable aspect of the forecast today as the pressure gradient tightens behind the exiting system. Westerly winds will turn northwest through the day and increase through the day, with gusts around 50 mph possible, especially from this afternoon through early evening. Please see the latest Wind Advisory for additional details. Temperatures will continue to fall through the afternoon, slipping below freezing by late afternoon/ early evening, which may allow any standing water on roads to begin freezing toward evening. Aside from gusty winds, little in the way of additional impacts is expected tonight as conditions quiet down. Overnight lows are expected to fall int the teens across eastern Upper, with 20s across much of northern Lower.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Attention then quickly turns to the next system expected to impact northern Michigan Saturday into Sunday. While confidence in the finer details remains on the lower side, potential continues to increase for accumulating, and potentially impactful, snowfall along with breezy conditions across the area. Guidance continues to support several inches of snow possible during this timeframe with higher probabilities for at least 4". However, an important note is that guidance is also trending towards a weaker and more south and east track which would result in lower snowfall totals and more limited impacts...Stay tuned as this forecast will likely be tweaked/ changed in the coming forcast cycles as details become more clear.

Temperatures look to trend cooler through the weekend, with highs by Sunday returning to the 20s. Broad scale troughing appears poised to persist into next week, supporting cooler temperatures across the region with prevailing flow looking to favor occasional chances for additional snow through the remainder of the forecast period. While temperatures may rebound into the 30s Monday and Tuesday, guidance supports that another shot of colder air arrives mid to late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 647 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Highly variable flight conditions are expected over the next several hours across northern Michigan as many sites have been bouncing between LIFR and MVFR/VFR. That said, conditions will likely degrade across most sites as the morning progresses and more precip moves in. South-southwest winds will continue to strengthen over the next few hours ahead of a front, gusting to 35-45 kts late this morning through this afternoon as winds quickly turn to northwest behind the frontal passage. Rain will transition to snow late this morning/early afternoon, likely dropping VSBYs at most TAF sites to IFR or even LIFR for a brief period. Flight conditions look to improve later this evening as winds also weaken, returning to VFR as low clouds look to scatter out.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>030-086>088-095>099. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ031>036-041- 042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LMZ323- 344>346. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-344>346. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-342. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.