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KEY MESSAGES

- Major winter storm to bring significant amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain later tonight through Monday night.

- Continues cool with additional chances for mostly light precipitation at times heading through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Calm before the impending storm across northern Michigan today with surface high pressure bringing partly to mostly sunny skies and seasonably chilly temperatures...with current readings in the 20s and 30s. However, all real focus directed at 160+ knot upper jet core and attendant shortwave troughing digging rapidly southeast across the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West. These features, combined with secondary anti-cyclonically curved upper jet across Ontario and Quebec, will help carve out rapid deep layer troughing across the central Conus on Sunday, with this troughing becoming negatively tilted with time as it cuts northeast across the Great Lakes later Sunday night into Monday. Surface response under intense mid level support and core of strong upper level diffluence within coupled upper jet streaks with be equally impressive, with rapidly deepening low pressure pivoting into our region during this same period (sub 980mb levels per some guidance by Monday morning). This will deliver a major and high impact winter storm across at least of the Northwoods, to include extremely heavy snow, significant icing, and very gusty winds. Oh...and for good measure...throw in some severe thunderstorm potential as well Sunday evening.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

All attention directed at all facets of that impending winter storm and attendant headline decisions.

Details:

What is a given: This system will be a high end precipitation producer...with deep layer frontogenetical response within both initial strong warm/moist advection regime and secondary deformation/trowal forcing...all within an increasingly moist airmass that spikes precipitable water values to 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.

What is far from a given: Exact thermal profiles that will drive exact placement of heaviest snow and ice corridors...as well as likely force a complete changeover to rain in some places. Unfortunately, the confidence on these thermal profiles has only decreased with time..owning to steadily diverging guidance placement and track of that deepening surface response.

What follows is nothing more than a best educated guess: First for northern lower (easily the most complicated and less confident portion of the forecast area). Conditions will deteriorate quickly later tonight into Sunday as intial surge of deep moisture advection and isentropic upglide on nose of 50+ knot low level jet drives rapid development of a northwest to southeast corridor of snow later tonight across northern lower Michigan...with this snow pivoting north Sunday morning. Breadth of forcing supports transient snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour at times...especially within more focused frontogenetical response axes. Easily looking at several inches of snow later tonight into early Sunday across northern lower Michigan. Strong push of warm air advection will also support a rapid northward push of an elevated warm layer...likely forcing precipitation to become mixy along its southern edge as it crosses the region. Elevated warm front lays out southwest to northeast across northern Michigan by Sunday afternoon into the evening...all-the-while the surface warm front and above freezing surface temperatures expand further north. This is the most complicated part of the forecast, with both those elevated and surface fronts laying the foundation for exact precipitation types. Overall trends continues to be with a northward adjustment to both, forcing the potential for sleet and significant freezing rain further north as well into northwest lower Michigan...and bringing increasing potential for precipitation to trend to all rain across northeast lower and the southern section of our APX footprint. Where precipitation remains as freezing rain we could easily see ice amounts in excess of half in inch by later Sunday night, with additional snow and sleet totals in excess of 6 inches just to the north of this freezing rain corridor. Current trends definitely support less potential for significant icing across the southeast third of northern lower Michigan. Unfortunately, this exact delineation between snow, sleet, freezing rain, and just plain rain will likely continue to remain very "fluid," with exact placement of these different precipitation corridors likely not fully realized until the event is actually unfolding. Understand though, this continues to have the potential to be a very high impact event, especially wherever that freezing rain corridor will reside. Finally, may even see some thunder potential as well later Sunday into Sunday night...especially if some of the latest more aggressive northern storm track outcomes are realized. Marginal severe weather wording down near Saginaw Bay continues, highlighting gusty winds as the main concern.

A bit of a different story across eastern upper Michigan, with latest trends showing northward surging moist advection/isentropic upglide corridor stalling and pivoting across that region Sunday...with frequent periods of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates at times with deep vertical omega through the favored dendritic growth layer. Forcing turns to one of deformation and trowal dynamics Sunday night into early Monday...continuing periods of very heavy snow. Snowfall totals north of the big bridge could be downright impressive indeed by Monday morning...with snow amounts in excess of 2 feet easily attainable by sunrise Monday. Gusty northeast winds, at times over 30 mph, will result in blowing and drifting snow...especially in those more open areas of central and southern Chippewa County. Could easily see blizzard conditions at times Sunday through Monday night across this area.

Deep low pressure will slowly pull off to our northeast during the day Monday, sending what should be by then a decaying deformation/trowal zone southeast back across the rest of northern Michigan. A growing lake component in strong surge of cold air advection on gusty northwest winds will help enhance snowfall rates in those favored lake belts...likely bringing several more inches of snow by Tuesday morning. Peak winds likely occur Monday as cold air advection and tight pressure gradient become best aligned, resulting in some blowing and drifting snow.

Not much time spent on the remainder of the forecast. Still looking at cool conditions and periods of mostly light precipitation through next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions continue through the rest of this afternoon, with a burst of snow expected this evening and overnight. Expect a swath of MVFR CIGs with 3/4 to 2SM VSBYs, locally lower at times in heavier snows. Snow begins generally between 5 and 9Z for most, mixing with sleet or freezing rain across KMBL. Some LLWS possible for KTVC and KMBL later tonight into early Sunday as well. CIGs gradually lower to IFR or lower at times later Sunday and Sunday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-020>022-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ023>030. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ031>036-041-042. Blizzard Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ086-087-095-096. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ088-097-098. MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 8 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321- 322.