textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Few lake effect snow showers/flurries today.

- Another cold night tonight, temps in the single digits above to single digits below zero.

- Chance for light precip Tuesday, more active mid to late week with moderating temperatures and melting snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Outside of a few flurries/lake effect snow showers today, cold, but non impactful weather as trough to the north begins to evacuate to the east and sfc high pressure builds overhead. Some, but not all, guidance shows moisture within the DGZ today at times, so would not be surprised to see some flurries/snow showers across northern lower MI today, with general light lake effect snow near Whitefish Point and vicinity at times. One more seasonably cold night before we begin moderating in response to height rises aloft to start the work week.

Still watching whether moisture makes it far enough north for precipitation on Tuesday of next week. Little feature aloft within the flow might produce some light precipitation on Tuesday as the ECMWF suggests, but the large majority of guidance suggest only very light precip, likely wintry of origin regardless. Ensembles, for instance, have a low chance for 0.1" of precipitation for this system, highest probabilities across the far southeast quadrant of the county warning area. Still, the main lift and moisture pool will be well to the south of northern Michigan regardless.

For the rest of the mid and and late week time frame, we'll be watching for perturbations within the larger above normal height anomalies across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Subsequent low pressure systems will track northeast up into the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest. Ensemble guidance certainly shows the potential for several rounds of precipitation, perhaps one Wednesday, then again to end the week around Friday into the early weekend. There will likely be a gradient in highest total precipitation amounts, with the highest totals through the week and this weekend the farther south you go in Michigan (due in part to the precip chances mid week focusing towards southern areas), as shown in all ensemble guidance (with a medium chance (~40-70%) for total precip >0.5" through Saturday across northern MI). Although looks like everyone is at play for the late week system as low pressure tracks to our west.

Well above normal temperatures late week into next weekend along with the potential for at least modest/moderate precipitation chances may lead to rapid snow melt and river rises. The Hydrologic Ensemble Models project rises across all our river forecast points, so definitely worth keeping an eye on. The extent of river rises will depend on how warm/how much snow melt and how much rain but the potential is there and worth monitoring this guidance moving forward. Latest run of this ensemble system at the Manistee River at Sherman shows a rise up to action stage. Again, worth watching moving forward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR producing lake clouds and higher level clouds this morning, with skies expected to gradually scatter out through the day. Mostly clear skies this evening. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.