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KEY MESSAGES

-Rounds of rainfall spread across Northern Michigan today and Thursday.

-Quiet weather returns this weekend through early next week with highs in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Low amplitude longwave troughing begins to develop across Canada as yesterday's shortwave ridge over the Great Lakes Region continues to break down and progress down stream. Upstream shortwave currently over the southwestern U.S begins to develop surface low pressure and push moisture into the Midwest through Thursday. Beneficial rounds of rainfall will remain ongoing through Thursday afternoon before this slow moving frontal boundary sweeps to the southeast.

The remainder of the forecast period is expected to remain pretty benign as the aforementioned longwave trough over Canada expands southward and supports a cool continental polar air mass to occupy the Great Lakes Region this weekend through the remainder of the forecast period. Surface high pressure over northern Ontario will keep things dry and mostly rain-free, besides slight chances of rainfall driven by a disheveled wave pivoting across the U.S./Canadian Border this Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Today and Thursday: While areas upstream are expected to observe inches of rainfall, the warm conveyor belt of moisture from the gulf stream appears to remain over the Illinois/Iowa region. Latest hi- res guidance continues to support the strongest 850mb warm air advection upstream while forcing falls rapidly with distance as it approaches our CWA leading to less intense rainfall. Regardless, adequate moisture is still expected to produce some beneficial shower to the northwards in two rounds (today and Thursday). Light stratiform rainfall will persist today only producing a couple tenths followed by a more convective-driven element sweeping the region Thursday resulting in rainfall totals between a quarter to half inch for most locations.

Friday and Saturday: Post frontal cold air advection builds this Friday, resulting in fall-like weather with breezy northwest flow and temperatures beginning to fall back to climo-norms. Highs remain in the 60s this Friday and Saturday accompanied by surface high pressure quickly drying out profiles. The only impactful weather within this timeframe is the near-freezing overnight temperatures Friday night. Breezy northwest flow combined with clear skies will maximize radiational cooling rates leading to widespread lows around the 30s for interior northern lower and eastern upper.

Sunday through Tuesday Outlook: Overall quiet and non-impactful weather is expected to continue with prolonged longwave troughing and cP influence through early next week. Only chance of rainfall remains on Sunday as a disheveled wave pivots across the U.S./Canadian Border. Rainfall amounts remain low with most moisture remaining north of the bridge, generally a tenth or so of total additional precip. Otherwise the majority of the weekend through early next week will produce partly/mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 60s for most areas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Cloud cover will continue to spread from west to east across northern Michigan as rain also moves in later tonight and Wednesday morning. In turn, CIGs will begin to drop early Wednesday morning as well -- first across the eastern U.P., and then across northern lower. Current confidence is that CIGs may not drop as low as previously thought. While IFR CIGs are likely at CIU beginning Wednesday morning, other TAF sites may see MVFR CIGs stick around through much of the morning before dropping to IFR later in the day. Worst CIGs look to come Wednesday evening where LIFR conditions will be possible across much of the area. Otherwise, south-southwest winds around 10 kts will gust to 20-25 kts at times through Wednesday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ025-031-095-096-098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.