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KEY MESSAGES

-High pressure continues to support quiet and overall dry weather through Friday.

-Active weather pattern returns early next week with showers at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Yesterday's deep longwave trough from Northern Ontario/Quebec quickly broke down overnight, forming a quasi-zonal flow pattern across the CONUS this morning. Heights will slowly start to rise across the Midwest, slowly building temperatures back to near climatological normals with highs in the mid/upper 70s for most parts of the CWA. Surface high pressure centered over the Illinois/Iowa border continues to keep conditions dry and sunny today and Friday.

The midlevel pattern turns to split flow this weekend across North America, featuring a large-scale closed low pressure over Hudson Bay and low amplitude riding over the American Rockies. Weak forcing and synoptic systems being forced north and south of the Great Lakes Region will keep conditions dry the majority of the weekend, but scattered showers remain possible at times from disheveled vicinity boundaries and waves. The next chance of widespread showers and storms holds off until next week as a shortwave digs across the northwoods. Overall, this system appears to be quite moisture- starved from being cut off due to aforementioned ridging, but if timing prevails, this round of convection could return some beneficial rainfall to the region for the first time in several days.

Forecast Details:

Today and Friday: Surface high pressure with slowly climbing midlevel heights will bring typical pleasant summertime conditions. Highs remain in the upper 70s to low 80s today with light southwest winds. While the majority of the CWA is dry all day, one or two brief sprinkles tied to a wave tracking across Southern Ontario could make its way into northern Chippewa County, but showers will deteriorate over land trying to overcome the low level dry layer so only one or two localized areas could observe a trace. No measurable precipitation is expected through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: A surface low develops over Northern Alberta and weakens as it moves toward the Canadian east coast. An attached front will drag across the southern Canadian provinces, delivering light amounts of moisture to the U.S. Canadian Border. Scattered showers are expected this Saturday for Michigan's Eastern Upper Peninsula. With a disheveled low beginning to break apart, this front will lose organization as it passes, leaving the majority of the precipitation closer to the Wisconsin Border. For Chippewa and Mackinac counties, only a tenth of an inch or less is expected for most locations. Sunday will likely remain dry but feature increasing cloud cover with an approaching shortwave.

Monday through Wednesday Outlook: The aforementioned shortwave trough develops surface low pressure lee of the Canadian Rockies and moves to the Upper Great Lakes this Monday. Showers and storms will persist, returning widespread measurable QPF to the CWA for the first time in several days. Highest rainfall probabilities (40-60%) remain between a tenth and a quarter inch but embedded convection will likely change totals as we head closer to early next week. Surface high pressure appears to build on the backside of this system as it heads downstream, returning sunny skies and dry weather through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 649 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions anticipated today with just some FEW-SCT hi based cu development in spots. A bit of breeziness expected at CIU and PLN midday through the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342-344.