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KEY MESSAGES

- A high impact lake effect snow event is becoming increasingly likely across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan Wednesday PM into Friday. High snowfall amounts and strong wind gusts may lead to rapid drops in visibility, blowing/drifting snow, and hazardous holiday travel.

- Otherwise mild to start the week with rain chances returning Monday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 323 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing currently over New England will continue to slide over the north Atlantic tonight and Monday as ridging presses over the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley from the west. Subsidence aloft provided by said ridging will build surface high pressure across much of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River through Monday. Meanwhile, a closed mid/upper low will eject over the southern Great Plains, providing sufficient forcing to generate a weak cyclone in lee of the higher terrain as a second stronger trough begins to dig across the Pacific Northwest.

Forecast Details:

Lingering light rain showers across the eastern U.P. are expected to diminish over the next few hours as increasingly dry air noses in with aforementioned ridging/high pressure. Northwest flow will keep scattered/broken lake effect clouds in place for parts of northern Michigan through the remainder of the day before winds shift to south-southwest on Monday as high pressure builds to our southeast. Breezy conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with gusts to 20- 30 mph, but mild temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s will help take the bite out of the wind. Rain chances are expected to hold off until Monday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 323 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Early this Week (Monday night-Tuesday Night):

Ridging looks to exit the region east Monday night into Tuesday. A first wave will lift into the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes by Tuesday, becoming increasingly open with time. Broad, relatively weak low pressure will work into the Great Lakes Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of this feature will keep mild temperatures in place during the first half of the week. Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid 30s to low 40s for most areas Monday night with afternoon readings in the upper 40s to low 50s on Tuesday. Rain chances return to the area late Monday night and Tuesday, although current confidence is that many areas appear they will stay more dry than wet during this timeframe. Best rain chances will come in the vicinity of the warm front across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern U.P., with lesser chances further south across mid Michigan. Drizzle may persist for a time later Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of the main show of rain and snow discussed above.

Thanksgiving Lake Effect Snow (Wednesday-Saturday): All signs continue to point towards a high impact lake effect snow event for the Thanksgiving holiday across parts of northern Michigan. Impressive amplified longwave troughing will dig across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Wednesday, providing strong ascent aloft that will quickly deepen a cyclone over Michigan's Upper Peninsula/Lake Superior as it pivots into Ontario on Wednesday. The initial cold front looks to swing through earlier Wednesday, cooling temperatures through the daytime as a secondary front looks to swing through later in the afternoon/evening. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing for most areas behind this second frontal passage, transitioning rain to snow as west/northwest flow overspreads the region.

Both deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to come into agreement and raise confidence in a high impact lake effect snow event occurring in the Wednesday evening - Friday morning timeframe. Deep moisture through the vertical profile will wrap from the Atlantic around the aforementioned cyclone, laying the foundation for potential high snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour or higher under any organized bands. Uncertainty in dominant wind direction(s) remains the biggest question mark at this time and will play the biggest role in determining which portions of northern Michigan experience the highest amounts and worst impacts. Current confidence leans towards a nearly straight westerly wind direction through Wednesday night with a shift to more northwesterly flow with time Thanksgiving day -- which would potentially fan out heaviest snowfall and resultant impacts. While these details will become more clear with time, localized double-digit snowfall amounts appear possible with many receiving several inches of fresh snow by late Thursday/early Friday.

While many people may focus on snowfall amounts as Thanksgiving approaches, the potential impacts that would result from current forecast winds cannot go understated in terms of holiday travel Wednesday night and Thursday. Potential winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-45+ mph would create rapid drops in visibility in falling snow -- especially with blowing snow across north-south oriented roads -- drifting snow on roadways, and likely hazardous travel for an extended period of time through the holiday across impacted areas of northwest lower and eastern upper. As the previous forecaster mentioned, treatment/pre-treatment of roads may be difficult due to rainfall during the day on Wednesday and re- covering of any roadways due to aforementioned winds. Those with travel plans across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan Wednesday evening and Thursday should carefully review them and stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 613 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Any lingering MVFR producing cigs will give way to VFR conditions overnight through Monday under just some passing mid and high level clouds. Winds go light tonight, becoming quite gusty (in excess of 25 knots at times) out of the southwest on Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346- 349. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ347- 348. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.