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KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect snow and gusty winds continue this morning, combining with existing poor road conditions to create hazardous travel for some areas.

- Below freezing temperatures continue into the middle of the week, potentially complicating recovery efforts for hardest hit ice areas.

- Additional precip chances at times through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 417 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive amplified longwave troughing centered over the Great Lakes will begin to lift northeast today as the associated surface cyclone treks across Quebec. Surface high pressure will build across much of the Mississippi Valley today underneath subsidence on the backside of said troughing, nosing into the Great Lakes late today into tonight for a brief period. A second wave will punch over the far northern Great Lakes on Wednesday, supporting a weak, elongated system that looks to drag across the region during the second half of the week. Additional waves embedded in large scale northwest flow aloft may continue to work across the region through the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Recovery efforts will be in full force across northern Michigan today as winter weather impacts begin to wind down across the area. Mainly light lake effect snow will persist across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan this morning, along with gusty winds of 20-30 mph. The combination of light snow, winds, and existing poor road conditions will still keep hazardous travel in place across parts of the area this morning. Lake effect snow showers will be shunted inland across much of the area this afternoon, potentially leading to some lowered visibilities under any heavier showers. Additional snowfall totals of 1-2" are expected across northwest lower Michigan with less than 1" elsewhere.

Looking ahead, cold temperatures are expected to last through the middle of the week, potentially complicating recovery efforts across the areas hit hardest by freezing rain/damaging icing. These areas may creep above freezing briefly on Wednesday, but much higher confidence exists in a warm up on Thursday where afternoon temperatures likely rise above 40 for those along the M-55 corridor. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s look to last through this weekend, which would be close to average heading into the second half of March. Otherwise, another round of light snow chances returns on Wednesday, especially for those along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Additional rain/snow chances will move into the Great Lakes as aforementioned waves work across the region into next week, but no major systems appear to be on the horizon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Light lake effect snow showers will continue across parts of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan this morning before being shunted inland this afternoon. Drops to MVFR/IFR VSBYs will be possible underneath snow showers -- most likely coming at TVC through the morning. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs across parts of northern Michigan are expected to lift to VFR later this afternoon. Northwest winds gusting to 20-25 kts this morning will weaken this afternoon, turning to south winds overnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016-017-020-021-025>027-031-032-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ086>088-095>098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321-322.