textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Some showers linger through midday, diminishing into the afternoon.

- Frost possible tonight, but especially Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Trough axis and deeper moisture shifts off to the east through the day today, and so does the steadiest precipitation. Even still, steep low level lapse rates and enough low level moisture within the boundary layer may produce a few instances/areas of light showers, generally across northwest lower MI. Any showery activity should wane by the mid afternoon hours. Winds will shift northwest today as well as cold advection overspreads the region, with winds gusts of ~20-30 mph on average through the day today.

Deep trough to our north pushes south tonight. This cooler airmass over the relatively mild lakes will result in a few areas of lake induced rain showers, mainly for eastern upper Michigan. Small chance for a waterspout as well, based on the International Centre for Waterspout Research. Temperatures flirt with the 30s most areas, although the degree to which the boundary layer remains mixed will ultimately dictate how low the temperatures drop. Frost temperature criteria may be possible tonight, although elevated winds may retard any significant frost formation. Collaboration with GRR has pushed any frost headlines/products for the day crew to assess further. In reality, the better and more widespread potential seems to be Monday night.

Deep trough moves to the east on Monday, with any showers moving to the east as high pressure slides to the east. Sfc high pressure slides over northern MI Monday night, setting the stage for aggressive radiational cooling and the potential for the coldest night of the fall season. Current forecast has temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s across a good chunk of the region away from the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline (marine layer/cloud/wind contributions keep LM shoreline milder). Expect frost/freeze headlines in the future unless something changes.

The low pressure system across the Dakotas will move eastward into Tuesday, perhaps clipping the region with warm advection rain showers Tuesday - Tuesday night. More importantly, the pressure gradient between this low pressure system and the aforementioned sfc high pressure system will result in breezy conditions, with another round of marine products.

Energy impinging from the north mid week will result in a few chances for showers, generally of the lake induced variety, and favoring the farther north one is. Daily high temperatures do not fluctuate all that much, with low to mid 60s most days. It does appear next weekend will be dry, and pretty mild.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Iso -SHRA and VCSH linger today, most locations dry and/or drying by the afternoon. Period of MVFR CIGs most locations as well, generally somewhere in the 14Z - 18Z timeframe before becoming VFR. South to southwest winds become more west to northwest through the day, 10G20-25KTs for most locations, decreasing into the overnight. A few light showers in the vicinity of KCIU tonight with VFR conditions continuing.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.