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KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue over the next several days.

- Active weather returns midweek with myriad precipitation types expected across northern Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Split flow constituted with northern stream zonal flow remains steadfast over the Great Lakes region, with a strong southern stream wave over the southern Plains bottling up any moisture return from the Gulf from advancing any farther north. As such, a series of moisture starved northern stream waves will be forced through the Great Lakes, bringing through what little moisture they can draw all the way from the Pacific. Result will be rather mundane weather through Monday... exceptions being some lingering freezing fog / fog this morning that should quickly lift as the first of these moisture starved waves zips through Lake Superior this morning. Just enough forcing present to drum up a snow shower or two north of M-32... especially across eastern upper... early this morning. Little to no accumulation.

Temperatures today will feature quite the contrast... thick cloud cover will stunt highs across the eastern Yoop and far northern lower... probably struggling to get much past 35 in a lot of places. Farther south, within a window of clearer skies, the warm sector of the system may attempt to poke into Saginaw Bay and perhaps some places south of M-72 pending sky trends. Certainly a tricky forecast... with cloud cover likely being the difference between someplace like Gladwin plateauing out at 45 or spiking well into the 50s. Notwithstanding... the trend of above normal temperatures is expected to carry on. The next disturbance will be quick on the heels for Monday... but with temps generally in the 40s (50s south), this one will feature some light rain showers (perhaps a few snowflakes in the morning while temps are in the 30s) as a cold front passes through. Rainfall amounts look light, so hydro concerns (outside of ice jams) remain muted through at least Tuesday.

The trend of moisture starved and minimal impact systems will come to a halt as a potent Pacific wave crests a Plains ridge and sets course for the Great Lakes as a prominent baroclinic zone sets up essentially from Alberta to upstate New York (and thus, over lower MI). Favorable jet dynamics support surface cyclogenesis over the Plains with ample lift as a surface low moves into Michigan. This wave will have a pretty solid slug of Pacific moisture with it for a change, and surface high pressure over the southeastern CONUS should lead to potential Gulf influences as well by reinforcing return flow into the Great Lakes. Considering the airmass in place will be marginal from a temperature standpoint... anticipating precipitation that falls from Tuesday evening through Thursday to be a winter weather variety pack... with guidance's latest trends supporting mainly snow north of the Bridge, some form of snow / sleet / freezing rain mix across far northern lower, and more of a freezing rain / rain mix south of M-72... and even some rumbles of thunder.

With current ensemble QPF trends generally ranging from roughly 0.60 to 1.25" Tue night - Thursday... concern does arise for each p- type... but with persistent easterly flow (a wind direction that is generally only warm at the dadgum equator and California)... any underperformance with temperatures may lead to exponentially higher impacts from this system wherever freezing rain can occur the longest. As such, will have to watch this one closely because we are still well within the range for wholesale forecast changes... but the potential is there for someone to get a higher end impact wintry mess around midweek.

Beyond this, guidance remains set on the trend with a southern stream wave lifting into the southern Lakes from the southwest into the early part of the weekend... which may lead to some fringe impacts here, but this too will also be subject to change considering it is 6-7 days out at this juncture.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fog/stratus have been slower to reform this evening. Still expect most sites to see a period of at least MVFR cigs/vsbys overnight into Sunday morning. Expect IFR cigs to make inroads into the northern TAF sites Sunday, with CIU being IFR pretty much all day, and PLN becoming so in the afternoon. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.