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KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog near Lake Michgian coast, along the St. Mary's River, and in and around Whitefish Bay this morning

- Warm and mild conditions today, with chances for elevated fire danger Monday

- Shower and storm chances return Tuesday, along with hot and humid weather lingering through the end of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Mostly clear skies this morning, with some stratus over the marine areas (Lk MI, Whitefish Bay, St. Mary's River, and Lk Huron). This stratus will continue to develop and creep near the coastal areas of Lk MI as well as move over larger areas of eastern upper. Patchy fog will be seen over some of these spots, as well as some interior areas due to radiational cooling and lingering near surface moisture (Tds remain in the mid to high 50s). Some spots could see visibilities as low as 1 SM or less, and the dense fog could come up quick due to the patchy nature.

Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will dominate the area today, resulting in light winds and mild temperatures. General winds will be easterly, however the lake breeze will likely influence wind direction over NW lower and eastern upper. Temperatures over the lee slopes of NW lower will see temperatures a couple degrees warmer due to the light downsloping. During this time, an upper trough is making its way northward over the central plains.

Monday, this upper trough will carry deep Gulf moisture advection towards the Great Lake region. Before that moisture arrives, southeast winds will allow for the drier CAN air to continue influencing northern MI through Monday afternoon. Southeast winds will strengthen to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph (lower confidence in consistent +25 mph). Elevated fire danger will be possible Monday afternoon as humidity values fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s percent range. At this time, the environment looks to be on the marginal side for fire danger as wind gusts will likely be more occasional.

Late Monday into Tuesday, the upper wave moves over northern MI and brings shower and storms chances with it. There is high confidence that deep moisture will reach northern MI, as 90% chances for at least 1.5" PWATs up to the bridge exists Tuesday afternoon. Enough background forcing and dynamical assistance will likely be present to generate widespread light rain with embedded showers as the upper wave approaches Monday night. Little instability is present initially, which leads to lower chances for thunder with this intial surge. As the wave moves overhead Tuesday, better instability appears, resulting scattered to widespread shower and storm chances during the day on Tuesday. Intial soundings show largely skinny CAPE, which checks with the abundant moisture present. Some guidance is hinting at drying in the mid to higher levels of the atmosphere, which could result in some smaller hail. Gusty outflow winds will also be a possibility, however a LLJ is lacking over northern MI during this time. Heavy rain will be the primary hazard with storms on Tuesday. Localized flooding will be possible, however storms will be moving and that should curb widespread flooding concerns.

Starting Wednesday, the moisture remains but a hot airmass moves overhead. 850C temps approach 20C Wednesday afternoon with surface dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. Conditions will likely feel hot (apparent temperatures will approach the upper 90s for some spots), however breezy southwest winds and showers/storms will be present as well. This will make the overall temperature forecast a difficult one, nonetheless it will feel hot. Widespread moderate to major HeatRisk exist for Wednesday. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday with a shift of the focus of major heat to over parts of NE lower. This shift is due to a larger upper trough approaching and progressing that airmass to the east. Shower and storm chances continue into Thursday as well. Compounding hazards become possible with days like Wednesday and Thursday, storms could result in local power outages which would take out air conditioning. Overnight temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday remain warm, generally dipping into the mid to high 60s. Then a repeat of the heat Thursday, especailly for NE lower. Initial soundings do support the chances for stronger storms Wednesday and Thursday, with very healthy instability. Shear profiles are on the weaker side, but there is some (and this could change as we get closer).

A drier and cooler airmass builds in Friday and will linger through the weekend. Details on exact timing of when this drier and cooler air move in are subject to change, as there are lot of moving parts before that.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 644 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Some shallow LIFR fog has just rolled into KMBL/KTVC but should mix out by 1400Z. Outside of that...VFR conditions expected to prevail through tonight. Light background easterly flow today should allow for lake breeze development.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.