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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow across the E UP comes to an end through the day.

- Another shot for accumulating snow later tonight into early Friday, main focus across E UP.

- Periodic shots of cold air and lake enhanced snow chances heading into the weekend and beyond.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Vigorous upper trough will continue to dig to the east today with time, first across the northern Great Lakes this morning, then east across Quebec through the rest of the day. Accumulating lake effect snow showers will continue for the E UP today, especially as the upper trough digs to the southeast and convergence shifts southward during the first half of the day. Next piece of energy to riddle the forecast with snow will be a quick moving short wave and associated low pressure system across Ontario later tonight. As this system approaches, southwest flow will diminish any northwest lake effect.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Accumulating Snow:

Lake effect snow showers will continue across the eastern UP early today. There will be a period this morning and midday with accumulating snows for northern portions of Chippewa county, as the better convergence drifts southward. Thus, an additional ~1-4 inches of snow will be possible across northern Chipp, highest amounts likely within a narrow NNW to SSE oriented band within the vicinity of the SOO. Cold low level temperature profiles may result in lesser accumulations for a period, but potential for significant visibility reductions for the morning commute. Shifting winds will end the northwest lake effect through the afternoon hours.

Combination of short wave aloft and warm advection will result in a little burst of snowfall later tonight into the early portions of Friday. Best lower level convergence and upper lift will be across the eastern UP, with a couple of inches possible (~1-3"). Breezy conditions will remain as well and thus poor vsbys will be possible due to falling and patchy blowing snow.

Cold Temperatures:

Cold temperatures are expected this morning, and tonight as well. Values drop into the teens and single digits for most, with even lower wind chill values. Expect apparent temperatures to be below zero for many this morning, close to zero tonight. Actual air temps little tricky tonight with southerly flow in advance of the next system. Might be a deal where the sheltered, interior locations see single digits with teens for coastal locations, esp near lake MI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):

Short wave and warm advection induced snows will continue early on Friday, replaced to some extent by another short wave farther south moving across LM and C-S MI later in the day and into the night. This will result in more snow showers across northern MI, emphasis on the lake effect and enhancement regions of northwest lower and eastern upper. Not a huge signal for significant impacts, with likely just some lighter snowfall amounts (a few inches) and snow showers through the day on Friday and Saturday.

Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):

Another upper trough descends upon the great white north of Ontario later this weekend with another shot of cold air and thus lake enhanced/effect snows. Perhaps slightly more notable will be the overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning with single digits expected, with some of the cold spots possibly dipping below zero. NBM hinting at this possibility with low probs (10-40%) for at or below zero low temperatures across the interior in northern lower (other statistical guidance, namely MEX, has GOV at a bitter -10F).

Another trough looks to dive down across the Great Lakes region sometime early to mid next week with another shot for snow. Quick and dirty long range look suggests the potential for at least a couple inches of lake enhanced snow, but that will ultimately depend on the location and orientation of the trough as our wintry period continues.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1258 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Ongoing lake effect snow showers will dissipate this afternoon continuing VFR conditions through this evening. Winds currently from the NW will back to the SW tonight, becoming gusty overnight before tapering through the day Friday. Additional -SN returns to KCIU and KPLN tonight followed by lowering cloud cover, dropping CIG's and VISBY's to MVFR around 0800-1400Z for all sites and continue to lower beyond the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345- 347>349. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321.