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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances tonight and Saturday

- Frost/freeze concerns return along with cooler weather beginning Saturday night

- Warmer weather possible by late next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Upper low will continue to meander over the ne Canada/Hudson Bay region into the middle of next week. Cool nw flow aloft and suppressed heights will continue in northern MI over the same time period. In fact, a chunk of this upper low shifts bodily southward into the James Bay region this weekend. That will push colder air back into the northern lakes.

Quiet and warmer out there this afternoon. An impressive cu field over northern lower MI, but with some more focused convergence lines of cu over eastern upper. Temp/dew point spreads are fairly large, even in the UP, and no showers are noted here. However, some showers are trying to get going to our west in northern WI. This is in advance of a pair of digging shortwaves, one of which crosses upper MI late tonight. A more vigorous wave follows a similar track Sat afternoon.

Fire wx: winds and RHs both exceeded expectations from a fire wx standpoint today...i.e. it got drier and breezier than earlier progged. Progs for Saturday have also trended sharply drier for Saturday, at least since early this morning. Fire danger is elevated out there today with dry air and gusty winds, and that will return on Saturday, in ne lower MI in particular.

The hourly mesoscale models are in a constant state of flip- flop regarding precip coverage tonight/Saturday. Moisture availability clearly isn't great now, with a well-mixed airmass and surface RHs down in the 20s% in many areas. There may be a slight chance for western areas to see a shower this evening, as activity now in WI tries to push east. Better chances develop later tonight, as the narrow pre-frontal zone of best isentropic ascent shifts across MI. Lapse rates will certainly steepen, and eventually the moisture feed gets a little more rich. But the opportunity to pop some showers is relatively narrow, up to cold frontal passage Sat morning. Some sct showers after midnight is reasonable, with relatively low QPF (up to a tenth). That continues into Sat morning in eastern areas, before the cold front passes. In the afternoon, small chance pops return, as the more vigorous secondary shortwave provides stronger dynamics but into a drier airmass.

Cooler/drier air floods back in to end the weekend and start the week. A few showers are possible Sunday, especially in eastern upper MI, with diurnal heating working beneath chilly temps aloft. Otherwise mainly dry until Tuesday. Max temps fall back into the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday-Monday, before rebounding. Frost/freeze concerns are very likely to reassert themselves Sat-Sun-Mon nights, at least.

A digging/amplifying shortwave seems likely to cross MI mid-week. Associated rain chances will be on Tue/Tue night. The upper pattern is finally becoming more progressive by then, with the west coast omega block breaking down. Temps should get an opportunity to rebound to normal levels by late in the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions should persist across most of northern Michigan through Saturday evening. The exception to this is low chances for MVFR CIGs to move in for a time at CIU early Saturday morning as isolated/scattered showers work across the area. Increasing south winds later tonight will shift to the west-northwest behind a frontal passage this morning/early afternoon with gusts to 20-30 kts at times into Saturday evening. Winds look to weaken again after sunset on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.