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KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warming temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

- Low-end shower chances linger late week, with plenty of dry time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The quiet weather pattern continues through the first half of the week, though a decaying shortwave will bring some increase in cloud cover later today into tonight. Otherwise, today will remain dry with plenty of sunshine, while the additional clouds tonight should help keep temperatures from falling quite as much as recent nights. Lows will generally be in the 40s, with some colder interior spots potentially dipping into the upper 30s. The added cloud cover should also help limit the coverage of fog tonight into Monday morning.

The surface high gradually shifts away Monday into Tuesday, allowing return flow to develop and temperatures to warm. Expect mostly sunny skies and a continued warming trend, with highs reaching the 70s both days and some locations potentially pushing into the upper 70s by Tuesday. Despite the warmer afternoons, the dry airmass will continue to support fairly cool overnight temperatures, generally in the 40s. Overall, conditions look dry and quiet through Tuesday.

A change in the pattern arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday as a northern-stream wave moves through the Great Lakes and begins to pull deeper moisture farther north. Shower chances will increase Tuesday night/ Wednesday (especially Wednesday night), but there remains uncertainty in how much precipitation actually reaches northern Michigan with very dry air already in place. The timing and eventual track of the wave will be important in determining how much of a push this system makes into the region. With the wave currently still favored to pass during the nighttime and relatively dry air still in place, rainfall may be limited, with more meaningful amounts likely dependent on any convective enhancement.

Through the latter half of the week, the active precipitation corridor to our south may gradually lift northward, keeping at least low-end shower chances in the forecast, particularly across southern portions of the area. There should still be plenty of dry time, and forecast trends could continue to shift wetter or drier depending on how far north the moisture and forcing associated with the southern system can get. Temperatures will trend cooler following the midweek wave, with highs settling back into the 60s toward the end of the week and overnight lows generally in the 40s or slightly cooler.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Patchy FG/BR development is possible across parts of northern Michigan tonight, especially interior low-lying areas and bodies of water. Expectation is that development at TAF sites will struggle outside of MBL where drops to IFR/LIFR will be possible into Monday morning. Any FG/BR will dissipate quickly after sunrise, and VFR conditions will be in place from Monday morning through the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.