textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. A few strong storms possible. - Quiet Wednesday-Thursday

- Unsettled again Thu night into this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

An upper low is gradually transiting Hudson Bay and northern Quebec this work week. This will tend to keep our heights somewhat suppressed, and temps will follow suit. A cold front passage tonight will contribute to our initial chances for rain. After a break, unsettled wx returns for the very end of the week.

Outside of more marine locales, surface dew points are in the 50s early this morning. Though these will rebound somewhat today, to near 60s/lower 60s, this will still tend to limit available instability before cold fropa. MlCape values rise to up to 750j/kg by late afternoon in the south half of the forecast area. Turning this into actual convection is not entirely certain; we will mix up into west 1km winds pre-fropa, and convergence along the front will be unimpressive.

Current shower activity in the western UP will expand eastward, and some showers could reach western Chip/Mack Cos before 12z. Chancy pops will continue to expand south/east thru very early afternoon. Pops will increase further moving thru the afternoon/evening as instability peaks. Activity rapidly weakens/exits eastward toward/after midnight. 0-6km bulk shear values are 30-40kt, so we perhaps have enough instability and shear for a strong storm or two, but severe storms are not likely. SPC has tucked a marginal day 1 severe risk into the MBL/CAD/Gladwin area (not a huge fan).

Much drier air invades behind this front, with dew points lowering into the 40s in some areas Wed night-Thu night. Dry wx expected Wed- Thu, with near seasonable highs but lows below normal.

More unsettled wx Thu night into Saturday. Expect energy to dig and eventually close off in the central/eastern lakes region this weekend. Initial chancy pops in the west and north Thu night, become likely across most of northern MI by Fri afternoon/evening. May have to watch out for stronger storms then as well. Likely turning cooler with and behind this system for Sunday-Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Numerous showers and a few TSRA will expand into the area today. Most of this activity will fall out of a mid cloud deck (above 6k ft), though a TSRA or heavier shower would briefly have lower cigs. Ditto vsbys, mostly VFR unless struck by a TSRA or better showers. So TAFs are pretty optimistic, mostly VFR, though brief restrictions are possible at all sites. May have to watch for some fog very late tonight, though. Winds increase today, initially sw but then w by midday and nw by this evening. Winds decrease tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.