textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/storms this afternoon/evening. A few strong to severe storms possible.

- Quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

- Much warmer, more humid, and potentially active next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Shortwave troughing is currently shifting east across the Great Lakes region, set to depart off to the east tonight. At the surface, ~1012mb low pressure sits across central MI early this afternoon with morning convection largely off to the east. Additional isolated to scattered development underway across parts of the forecast area, progged to continue through this evening.

Heights begin to rise Friday into the weekend before amplified/ impressive ridging builds over the nation's midsection early next week. While surface high pressure is likely to dominate Friday through the weekend, potential grows next week for the return of occasionally active weather.

Forecast Details: Primary focus in the near term revolves around thunderstorm potential this afternoon through this evening, with a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Latest analysis reveals 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE near and south of the M-72 corridor and up to ~250 J/kg as far north as the Tip of the Mitt. Instability expected to persist or increase slightly over the next few hours as more sun prevails across sections of northern lower. Up to 1,000-1,250 J/kg anticipated across far southeastern reaches of the forecast area near Saginaw Bay by mid-afternoon. Progged deep layer shear of 25-30 kts maximized near and south of M-32 through the remainder of the day. Latest trends still favor additional isolated to scattered storm development across sections of northern lower (already underway near and west of Grand Traverse Bay), some of which may be strong to severe with primarily a large hail and locally damaging wind threat. Locally heavy rain a good bet in any storms, especially given slow cell movement. Shower/storm threat expected to wane toward or just after sunset this evening.

Tranquil conditions anticipated Friday through the weekend with gradually warming temperatures each day...into the low to mid 80s by Sunday. Heat/humidity build Monday onward with growing potential (60- 80+%) for 90+ degree high temps across parts of the forecast area, especially Tuesday onward. Some concern around potential convection upstream and locally that may limit the higher end temp potential, but certainly not enough confidence in that at this point to deviate from favored blended temperature guidance.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 736 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Flight conditions remain primarily MVFR and IFR this afternoon as -SHRA with embedded -TSRA move across the region. Low pressure is expected to track southwest to northeast today, resulting in winds continuously backing throughout the day. Precipitation will depart the region this evening, followed by BKN and OVC skies slowly deteriorating at the end of the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.