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KEY MESSAGES

-Breezy winds continue today resulting in High Swim Risks across Northern Michigan Beaches.

-High pressure builds today though the end of the week. Little to no precipitation expected over the next several days.

-Active weather pattern returns early next week with shower and storm potential building across the midwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Cool and breezy weather continues to occupy the Great Lakes Region today as midlevel longwave troughing extends its axis south of Michigan. Post-frontal pressure gradients at the surface will continue northwest flow today and cause high wave levels on our Northern Michigan beaches, supporting a High Swim Risk through the afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure will build from the west today through the remainder of the week. Little to no precipitation is expected through Friday with temperatures slowly returning to near climatological normals for late July.

Aforementioned troughing over northeast North America will slowly break down into a more zonal flow pattern over the Great Lakes region by the end of the work week. Large scale midlevel low pressure centers itself over Hudson Bay and begins to redevelop a troughing pattern across Northern Ontario, making its way to Michigan around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. Long range guidance depicts precipitation chances returning to the northern parts of the CWA as early as this weekend. Best chance of more widespread precipitation returns next Monday supported by another surface low. Enough instability building during typical diurnal heating processes will likely support some embedded convection, but no strong or severe storms are expected throughout the entirety of the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Today through Friday: Conditions are expected to remain pretty benign for the next few days as surface high pressure keeps things dry. Only impactful weather will be the High Swim Risk across numerous shorelines of the CWA due to subsequent pressure gradient force winds. Northwest flow winds gusting into the upper 20s will slowly subside throughout the day until turning calm overnight as yesterday's cold front moves downstream. Temperatures remain cool today, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s, but will slowly return to climatological normals by the end of the work week as the aforementioned 500mb troughing slowly breaks down.

Saturday and Sunday: Midlevel low pressure begins to reestablish over the Hudson Bay region this Saturday and starts causing a low- amplitude troughing pattern across the Upper Great Lakes. The majority of the weekend is expected to remain dry with temperatures around normal for late July, but scattered showers will track across the northwoods at times due to embedded waves supporting light rainfall. Best chance for rain this weekend remains Saturday afternoon/evening as surface low pressure pivots around Hudson Bay and drags a front across Southern Ontario. Any appreciable precipitation would likely be limited to the Eastern Upper, but highest probabilities at this time remain at a quarter inch or less.

Monday and Tuesday Outlook: Troughing continues to deepen early next week as it extends its axis south of Michigan. Disheveled low pressure develops Lee of the Canadian Rockies this weekend and makes its way to Ontario this Monday. Widespread showers and storms will return to the CWA for the first time in several days, likely leading to some beneficial rainfall to the region. Rainfall amounts remain low at this time with only medium to low probabilities of 0.25 or less expected, but embedded convection could alter these numbers. We will continue to monitor this feature as we head closer to next week, but only weak elevated convection is expected at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Light drizzle/mist will be possible across parts of northern Michigan early tonight with lingering low-level moisture in place, but will likely stay outside of the TAF sites. Gusty northwest winds are expected to persist tonight through Wednesday afternoon with sustained speeds between 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts. BKN/OVC skies w/ CIGs near 3kft will hang on for a few more hours before cloud cover is expected to clear considerably into Wednesday morning, leaving sunny skies in place for much of the day. Winds look to become light/calm Wednesday evening as high pressure settles into the region.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016>018- 020-021-024-025-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.