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KEY MESSAGES

- High impact lake effect snow and strong wind event will unfold across northern Michigan Wednesday evening into Friday with event snowfall totals of 12"+ and wind gusts of 35-50+ mph.

- Another chance for snow later this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 411 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

The open wave over the southern Great Lakes down to the Mid-Atlantic will become less recognizable with time this evening as it lifts to the northeast into tonight. Upstream, an impressive trough will continue to dig across the Great Plains tonight and punch over the mid/upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday morning. At the surface, expansive low pressure stretching from the Upper Midwest down to the lower Mississippi Valley will quickly deepen under strong divergence provided by aforementioned troughing, consolidating the cyclone center and dropping it near 990mb as it works across northern Wisconsin/western U.P. early Wednesday morning.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing weak frontogenetic/warm advection-driven rain across differing parts of northern Michigan will continue to lift north this evening. Banding across the eastern U.P. will slowly focus across the far northern reaches of the CWA near Whitefish Bay as more widespread rain continues to slide across much of northern lower into tonight. After main rain chances depart areas of northern lower, light drizzle/mist/fog may linger behind later tonight into Wednesday morning during a relatively short break in better precip chances. A cold front is expected to swing into the Northwoods from west to east beginning in the late tonight/early Wednesday morning timeframe, bringing another round of rain showers late in the forecast period. Otherwise, mild temperatures will remain in place as readings in the 40s stick around tonight into Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 411 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Holiday Lake Effect Snow and Winds (Wednesday - Friday)

All eyes lie on the upcoming system set to bring a high travel impact round of lake effect snow and strong winds to parts of northern Michigan for the Thanksgiving holiday. As the event now lies in the reaches of high-res guidance and details are becoming more clear, will break down the discussion into the primary forecast components:

Timing:

As discussed above, a cold front will swing across the area Wednesday morning and exit east by late morning/early afternoon -- along with the associated band of rain showers. Rain will persist across the eastern U.P. the longest -- likely through must of the afternoon. While light showers/mist/fog may linger behind this, a relative break in precip chances is expected behind the front Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon depending on location. Current forecast thought is that the transition to lake effect snow will occur late Wednesday afternoon and evening -- between around 4pm-8pm across northwest lower Michigan. Heaviest lake effect snow is expected quickly after onset Wednesday evening, Wednesday night, and Thursday morning. The transition across the eastern U.P. is trickier as the system center will track directly overhead, but snow chances look to begin around the same time with heaviest lake effect snow onset delayed until around midnight-4am Thursday. Lake effect snow intensity may begin to lessen some Thursday afternoon and evening, but most dominant banding should still persist during this time while areas away from this begin to see things taper. Most dominant banding is expected to continue through Friday morning before tapering off Friday afternoon/evening.

Timing of winds is similar to snowfall. Strongest expected winds will quickly follow behind a second frontal passage in that 4pm-8pm timeframe, persist through Wednesday night, and continue into Thursday morning. Winds begin to lessen some Thursday afternoon, but will taper more substantially Thursday night into Friday.

Hazard Details:

Heavy lake effect snow is expected across much of northwest lower and parts of the eastern U.P. through the holiday. Highest snowfall amounts are currently expected across Kalkaska, southern Antrim, and eastern Grand Traverse counties under most dominant northwest-flow lake effect banding. Impressive snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour will be possible Wednesday night through much of Thursday under where this most dominant band sets up. Impressive snowfall amounts are increasingly likely across this section of northwest Michigan: Event totals of 8-12" likely with localized amounts around 16" possible through Friday afternoon. Localized amounts of 4-6" will be possible here by Thursday morning, with an additional 4-10" from Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon.

Northwest lake effect snow areas outside of Kalkaska, southern Antrim, and eastern Grand Traverse counties will see some lesser amounts ranging from around 5-9" with locally higher amounts possible with lesser amounts along the shorelines. Heaviest snow for areas near and south of Grand Traverse Bay is expected Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Total amounts across this area will range from 4-8" with lesser amounts near the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. Snowfall amounts in the 5-9" range are expected for interior eastern upper with lower totals next to Whitefish Bay. Strong winds will push bands far inland, potentially bringing a few inches even down to parts of our southeast CWA.

Strong winds are expected to kick in Wednesday evening. Highest winds with sustained speeds between 15-25 mph and gusts to 35-50+ mph are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Occasional gusts to around 60 mph cannot be ruled out, most likely for those near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

Impacts:

Combination of falling snow -- heavy at times -- and strong winds will lead to hazardous holiday travel across much of northern Michigan and dangerous travel at times for counties included in the winter storm warning. Worst widespread travel conditions are expected late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with overlap of heavy snow moving across the area and strongest winds. Whiteout conditions are likely at times, especially under heaviest lake effect snow. Exposed roadways will likely experience blowing and drifting snow, including re-covering of already plowed roads. While visibility reductions will still be concerning, worst impacts are expected inland of the immediate lakeshores. As mentioned above, strong winds will support bands working far into our southeast CWA -- potentially impacting travel far away from typical lake effect snow areas like stretches of I-75 near Roscommon/West Branch. It should be noted that while timing of strongest winds and heavy snow will overlap, strongest winds will lie outside of ongoing lake effect snow bands with relatively weaker winds underneath bands -- especially Thursday into Friday when dominant bands are organized. This may help mitigate impacts to a degree during this time, but expectation is still hazardous to potential dangerous travel. Those with holiday travel plans should stay tuned to the latest forecast impacts and timing for updates and be prepared for the expected upcoming conditions.

This Weekend into Next Week (Saturday - Tuesday):

A short break in precip is expected to begin the weekend before chances return in the late Saturday/Sunday timeframe. Ridging over the Great Lakes will slide east as expansive troughing pivots across the center of the country Saturday, eventually lifting into the region during the second half of the weekend. Forcing with this feature will support a cyclone that looks to follow suit, tracking into the Great Lakes and bringing our next round of snow chances. Another break in precip may be on the horizon early next week as this system pulls away and high pressure builds in.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Still expecting widespread MVFR/IFR to even LIFR conditions through the period under low clouds, mist, and showers. Expect snow to begin to mix in by later this afternoon at both KTVC and KMBL, with snow eventually becoming the dominate precipitation type through the evening across all taf locations. Wouldn't be surprised to see some minor snow accumulations, again especially at KTVC and KMBL. Winds will increase this morning, becoming gusty out of the southwest. Winds turn northwest and becoming very gusty later this afternoon, and especially this evening, when frequent gusts in excess of 30 knots are expected (perhaps exceeding 40 knots...especially closer to Lake Michigan). These gusty winds will result in blowing snow this evening, further reducing visibilities at times.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-086>088- 095>097-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018-023-024-029-035. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025-026-031-032. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ021-022-027-028-033-034-086-087-095-096-099. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ088. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323- 341-342-344. Storm Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ345-346. Gale Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ345- 346. Gale Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321- 322.