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KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering snow showers this morning into the afternoon.

- Moderating temperatures Wednesday through Thursday.

- Light widespread snowfall Thursday.

- Reinforcing push of arctic air arrives Friday along with associated impacts (cold/snow/wind). Hazardous travel possible later Friday morning into

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 212 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Longwave troughing in the process of easing its grip on the eastern CONUS to start the period, while a pesky embedded shortwave that caused Monday and Tuesday's widespread snow showers will be moving on to the east as well. This leaves northern Michigan in the de facto "neutral point" of the pattern... sandwiched between the departing shortwave and another wave digging into the Deep South. Closer to home, surface high pressure slides from Minnesota into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night as shortwave ridging passes overhead. Result will be a downward trend in snow showers with NW flow during the day Wednesday. Presence of the surface high and subsidence aloft from shortwave ridging should put a cap on snow shower activity through the day, with just some additional light accumulations possible. SW return flow builds into the region through the night... once again putting the region in a delicate position to see decoupling winds. NE lower locales that see any sort of clearing may see a quick drop in temperatures in the evening... but it should once again be capped as the return flow builds and warm advection materializes within a strengthening baroclinic zone. Another shortwave riding this warm advection regime will lead to increases in cloud cover through the night, with temperatures rising into daybreak.

Highs today in the 20s, with lows in the teens west of I-75, single digits (perhaps zero in the coldest spots) east of I-75 in northern lower.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 212 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Pattern set to trend a bit more active to close out the week and carrying into next week. A series of light accumulating snowfall events are set to occur in rapid succession Thursday and Friday, driven by a strong jet streak stretching from Alberta south and east to the lower Great Lakes. Aforementioned warm advection wing set to pass through the region as jet dynamics support isentropic lift. As such, this initial wave will lead to a period of light snowfall that moves in from NW to SE after daybreak Thursday. Some of this snow may linger around into Thursday night as warm advection continues to supply some moisture into the region through the evening and into early overnight... but may need to watch for some freezing drizzle owing to temps aloft warming just above the DGZ. In general, this particular event looks like a 1 to 3 inch snowfall through Thursday evening.

Upstream, a potent wave ejects east, with the favorable jet dynamics remaining firmly in control. This will support a deepening and closing off shortwave / surface cyclone that should surge eastward into James Bay. Closer to home, warm advection will be ongoing into early Friday morning, with temps likely spiking near freezing across much of northern lower. Aforementioned deepening cyclone will force a strong arctic cold front through the region. With ample lift in place and an embedded shortwave trough surging through the region, this will support a burst of snow ahead of the front that will overlap with the Friday morning commute. This will bring another 1 to 3 inches of snow through Friday afternoon. The front itself looks to barge through later in the morning and into the afternoon. This will be accompanied by a dramatic increase in winds as an arctic airmass surges into the region. With wind gusts potentially approaching 40mph, this could lead to some pretty gnarly commuting conditions Friday afternoon into the evening as blowing snow and snowfall leads to reduced visibility and blowing / drifting snow. This will eventually transition to some lake effect snowfall which will lead to continued impacts across the snowbelts into Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures tumbling to near / below zero will lead to dangerous wind chills Friday night into Saturday as well, with highs well below normal Saturday.

Additional waves supported by continued favorable jet dynamics will lead to additional snow chances Sunday and Monday with more light accumulations. Temperatures moderate to seasonable to slightly above normal by midweek... but with the active pattern set to continue... for the first time in a while, we may be staring down precipitation type concerns as the baroclinic zone continues to hover around.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Current SKC and VFR condtions at KAPN will diminish overnight with CIG's lowering to MVFR across the region. Light VRB winds back to the southwest this Thursday ahead of incoming -SN and -SHSN tracking across all TAF sites as early as 12Z Thursday for KTVC and KMBL. -SN will spread throughout the day Thursday across the remainder of the TAF sites through the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.