textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly today/tonight (non-zero frost chance???)

- Rain/storms Monday and Tuesday

- Active weather for midweek and beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

545dm upper low swirling over central Ontario...with shortwave trough axis extending down into MN. Strand of PV/elongated shortwave trough axis stretches from MT beneath a somewhat trapped shortwave ridge axis over southern Saskatchewan...around through SD and through the Yoop. 100kt upper jet streak crossing the Midwest on the southern edge of this strand of PV; with upper confluence from the western US through the Great Lakes. Absolute moisture in abundance across the central US (pwats at or above 1.5-2in in the Mid MS Valley, where a noteworthy convective complex is occurring as of 4z, and across the SE US)...sneaking up into the Great Lakes and Quebec along/ahead of the perimeter of troughing aloft, with pwats around 1in or so into lower Michigan along a col region/deformation axis. Low-level confluence zone largely reflects this axis of better moisture...stretching from northern MO through the Thumb and into southeastern Quebec, generally aligning with some developing convective activity at this hour, where some slight theta-e advection still exists. Much cooler north of this...with temps dropping into the 50s across the EUP last evening, and even colder yet upstream, behind a subtle surface trough...as a blob of 0C air at 850mb stretches from eastern Manitoba into central Ontario on the rear side of that upper low...where low-level flow is strong (40kts at 850mb) and northerly. Dewpoints are dropping accordingly, into the 40s across northern MI north of the boundary (still in the 60s across southern MI at 4z) but still a fair bit of moisture in play beneath the upper low, noting clouds and higher RHs through the column to our north.

Front should be exiting stage right this morning...with colder air continuing to spill into the region today on slightly breezy northwest flow. 850mb temps below 5C overhead (perhaps flirting with 0C?) suggest highs today will struggle to get out of the 60s today for most areas...though think we will have a more fall-like strato- cu deck around with showers around, which could keep things a bit cooler...and cold front swinging through during the middle of the day could also lead to falling temps through the afternoon. Fortunately the cold layer is not super deep...with inversion heights only around 10-11kft, which (in theory) should keep the threat of thunder to a minimum...though I would not be surprised to get a rumble or two, especially as the trough axis swings through around midday...or perhaps even a rogue cold air funnel/waterspout.

Brief ridging tonight ahead of another punch or two of PV, which should help clear out some of the showers but open the door for a chilly night. PV maxima track into the region Monday morning/afternoon with some increase in moisture and warmth...ahead of the next elongated lobe of PV poised to drape into the area Tuesday...as energy digs out of central Canada. Presence of a potent shortwave trough likely lifting through the region suggests another round of convective activity for some part of the Midwest/OH Valley at some point during this timeframe. Strengthening NW flow aloft across the western continent should result in pressure falls over the central US for midweek as cold air continues to spill out of central Canada around that persistent upper low...and will need to keep an eye on the midweek timeframe for a more dynamic and potentially more impactful system to hit the Midwest/OH Valley. Attm...signals point toward a return to northwest flow for late week...with quite a bit of uncertainty in the evolution of the broader trough axis going into next weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lows tonight (non-zero frost chance??)...Having opted to keep temps on the lower side today -- generally 55-60F for the EUP and 60-70F for northern Lower MI (warmest near Saginaw Bay) -- think this sets us up for a very cool night tonight. Standard diurnal temp swing of 20-25F for this time of year, which would be the worst case scenario, would put lows well down into the 30s/lower 30s for the EUP and around 40 across northern Lower MI; upstream airmass is relatively supportive of this idea as well (dewpoints over north/central Ontario are in the upper 30s as of 6z). So...think the potential is there for lows to approach freezing tonight (which would approach record lows for our climate sites). The question is, will conditions allow it? Think low-level moisture/clouds will be a little slow to depart from west to east into the overnight hours, not to mention recent rainfall could also increase low-level moisture enough in some locations to keep temperatures from totally bottoming out (would have a better shot at fog than frost in this case). It also remains possible that winds may not fully decouple overnight, particularly across NE Lower, where clouds are more likely to hang on into the night...and lows could stay in the 40s. Risk area then, for temperatures cold enough for frost, would be across northwest Lower MI, and particularly, the typical cold spots (i.e., valleys, etc, especially away from the immediate lakeshore).

Showers/storms Monday and Tuesday...think we will have a shot at storms on Monday with the PV maxima crossing the area. Initial shot may come through a little quieter, but confluence zone setting up across the EUP, combined with warmer/more-moist southwesterly flow ahead of this, suggests potential for some convection to develop...especially as temps warm through the day and mid-levels cool with the passage of the PV. Signals point toward development of at least a few hundred joules of CAPE, and shear should generally be on the lower side given lighter flow aloft...though any lake breeze influences could throw a wrench into shear profiles. Not impossible some popcorn storms could form further south across northern Lower, but think the main focus will be the central and EUP on Monday.

PV approaching the area Tuesday should amp up return flow in the lower levels across the Midwest into the Great Lakes...with pwats rising toward 1in or so again. This looks like a bit more dynamic of a system, esp noting it will become negatively tilted with time in our vicinity...with signals for surface cyclogenesis to occur (probably just to our west)...which should amp up southwesterly flow, especially in the lower levels. For now, signals seem to point toward flow aloft staying on the tamer side, with the stronger winds aloft likely displaced to our south, suggesting the greater threat for more organized convection should be to our south, where there is more likely to be an influence of a dry slot to enhance convective instability Tuesday night. This all being said...think we are in a better position for stratiform rainfall with embedded thunder, and perhaps a bit of deformation axis precip on the backside of the system, especially going into Tuesday night.

Active weather midweek...will need to keep a close eye on the evolution of the mid-week system as it develops upstream. Current thinking would drag a reasonably potent low pressure across the Great Lakes/OH Valley Wednesday into Thursday as a strong (100+kt upper jet) punches its way through the midsection of the country. This system also has an air of being a little more organized synoptically (at least, in current guidance), with a perhaps prolonged period of an east-west oriented boundary/trough of low pressure stretched across the Midwest, which could become a focus for heavy rain; tightening thermal gradients suggest better flow aloft and a threat for strong storms...though tough to say attm if this will reach us or remain to our south. (Currently appears the best shot will be to our south.) Noting the upstream setup could favor MCSs tracking into the Mid MS Valley through Tuesday/Wednesday...have to wonder if/how this will influence the pattern for Wednesday for us.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Light showers and a mix of VFR/ MVFR condtions linger into the afternoon before departing and VFR conditions return through the remainder of the period. Gusty northwest winds up to 25 kts at times are expected to last into the evening, decreasing tonight becoming west to southwest overnight, then gaining more of a westerly component Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.