textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return late tonight - Thursday with the highest rainfall amounts expected south of M-32.

- Cooler temperatures return along with dry weather as we look to the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Quiet weather continues through this evening before shower chances gradually increase late tonight into Wednesday as the next wave and associated boundary approach from the west. Precipitation will become more widespread Wednesday into Thursday as the system tracks through the region. Overall rainfall rates should remain on the lighter side, as relatively dry low and mid levels will limit precipitation efficiency, with rain spread out over a prolonged period of time. Northern Lower, particularly areas south of M-32, look favored for higher rainfall totals, with around 0.50" to 0.85" expected late tonight through Thursday night with higher amounts possible the farther south you go, including around an inch or more across portions of far southern northern Lower (around and south of M-55)... Again, these are storm total rainfall amounts over the course of 36 hours. Amounts should generally taper the farther north one goes.

The midweek wave gradually departs Thursday night into Friday, with a few lingering low-end shower chances possible Friday before high pressure builds back in. Temperatures will cool behind the system, with highs settling into the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 40s or cooler through the weekend. Overall, a much quieter and drier pattern is expected Friday into early next week as high pressure influences the sensible weather, with ample dry time expected through the weekend. Shower chances still linger Sunday as some guidance continues to suggest a weak disturbance could clip the area, but confidence remains low with this being several days out. Otherwise, seasonably cool temperatures for early October and generally dry conditions look to continue into Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1258 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Some MVFR cloud bases possible thru afternoon, but otherwise VFR. Not impossible fog develops again this evening/tonight ahead of rain, and if so, IFR-LIFR conditions possible with fog...but not confident in this attm. Otherwise, slow downtrend expected from VFR/MVFR to IFR or lower by 10-14z; rain from VFR cigs could move in as early as 6-8z. Looks like a 30-ish knot jet around 2kft AGL will develop tonight across the area, with less certainty of this at APN; some of this could mix down in the morning. Not impossible there could be some embedded TS after 12z, but not confident in this idea attm. Lake breezes this afternoon and non-zero chance for land (offshore) breeze this evening at coastal sites, but expect winds to become more S/SW and increase toward 10-15kts by morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for MIZ025-031-095-096-098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.