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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow today with a general 1 to 3 inches of additional snow for most.

- Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday.

- Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave and subsequent frontal boundary will move eastward through northern MI today, resulting in widespread accumulating snow. General thinking is for 1 to 3 inches throughout a majority of the region during the day today (heavier amounts across west Mack this morning), quickly diminishing from west to east through the afternoon hours. Low pressure system to our north will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, especially early in the day, resulting in periods of blowing snow in spots. Given the southerly winds and the falling/already accumulated snow across portions of western Mack early in the morning, significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible across US-2.

Next trough will be right on this systems heels, as it dives to the southeast across the Upper Midwest through tonight. Response will be a sfc low pressure that moves across MN, WI, and the eastward into C- S MI. Consequently, accumulating snow will begin to spread across northern lower MI tonight on the northern side of this system. Read on for more details.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Day 2-3 (Wednesday - Thursday):

As previously mentioned, short wave dives to the southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with subsequent low pressure system across the central - southern portions of MI. Still some subtle differences within the model guidance on the exact handling/phasing of the mid levels, which ultimately influences the low level height and sfc pressure fields. Consensus between between the GFS and ECMWF suggests a track across southern portions of MI, which would shift the QPF and subsequent heaviest snows a little to the south. Meanwhile, other pieces of guidance are a little farther north across central MI which would bring the accumulating snows farther northward. When investigating the ECMWF ENS MSLP low positions, there is still considerable spread in low pressure track, or how the low level height fields are being processed, at this time scale. One thing is for certain at this time, northern lower is at play for the steadiest snows, and especially south of M-32. Feel most comfortable with M-72 on southward for an advisory, based on some of the ensemble output with the highest probs for >3". This will likely be a ~2-6" snow event for our neck of the woods for the advisory locations.

This system will quickly move to the east later Wednesday with northwest flow and cold advection in its wake. Thus, expect a transition to northwest flow lake effect snow showers later Wednesday into Thursday. Global guidance not spitting out a whole lot of QPF at this time, but the northwest snow belts will remain wintry through mid week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Period of IFR vsbys expected in -SHSN at all sites between very late tonight and early Tuesday afternoon. This will affect the area from w to e, with the shortest period of IFR conditions expected at APN. Otherwise mostly VFR until the snow arrives, and MVFR cigs after the snow ends. Southerly winds increase and become blustery tonight, veering sw/wsw during the day Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-025-031-086-098. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ095. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348- 349. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ321- 322.