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KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful snow continues through the early to midday hours today near and south of M-72.

- Transition to lake effect snow later today through Thursday.

- More lake effect/enhanced snow later Friday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc low pressure system continues to track to the south of the region today, across C-S Michigan as an energy filled trough moves southeast into the OH Valley. Thus, generally a steady lighter snow will continue across the region, waning from west to east through the morning and midday hours, with wind gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day, more like 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon hours. Emphasis will be on the M-72 corridor and especially south. Thus, the morning commute will be slick and slippery for these regions. There will be a burst of cold advection as a colder airmass moves in from the northwest during the midday to afternoon hours, with a region of potential lake enhanced snowfall across GTB and points southwest. This may lead to drops in visibility with snow and blowing snow at the winds increase, if it materializes in a robust fashion. Because of this potential, the advisory remains across the region but more specifically the areas west of I-75 until 4PM. This may be deemed unnecessary moving into the daytime hours. Along and east of I-75 the advisory remains but the snow may end ~1PM for most. Seems unlikely that a freezing drizzle event would happen again today. Brief look at some soundings suggests perhaps for a very brief period there may be a low probability of freezing drizzle prior to the cold advection and after the precip moves eastward, but not very confident in that potential at this time.

Potent trough begins to dig across the eastern Great Lakes tonight with a shot of cold advection to follow. Thus, winds turn more northwesterly and the saturated boundary layer (which includes the DGZ) rises to ~1.5km across northern Michigan. Consequently, the lake effect machine kicks on once again tonight with an emphasis on the NW-NNW snowbelts. Lake effect snows will continue into the day on Thursday, waning in intensity through the day as conditions become atmospherically unfavorable/hostile. The most persistent and heaviest lake effect banding will be tonight into early Thursday, with 3-5"+ of snow possible for the NW snow belts of eastern upper and northern lower Michigan.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Day 2-3 (Thursday - Friday):

Steady northwest flow in the wake of an upper level low passing to our east Wed night into Thurs will produce lake effect snows. Best snows will be Wednesday night into early Thursday with rising heights aloft and increasing H850 temps leading to a slow fizzling through the day on Thursday. Some congruency within guidance for the potential for accumulating snows, could be ~3-6"+ locally across NW- NNW snow belts of eastern upper and northwest lower MI. For reference, latest HREF shows medium probs for 4+ inches across Kalkaska, Antrim, and Chippewa counties, some leaking into western Otsego.

Little short wave within the broader flow moves to the southeast in the vicinity of Michigan early on Friday, perhaps keeping a few lake induced snow showers alive. After brief short wave ridging in advance of the next system, sfc low pressure system and cold front will sweep across northern Michigan later on Friday ushering in another cold airmass and the renewed chance for lake effect snow. Read on for more details.

Days 4-7 (Saturday - Tuesday):

Trough digs down across the Great Lakes region later Friday with subsequent low pressure system and cold frontal boundary sweeping across northern MI. Thus, colder temperatures (~teens during the day, single digits at night) and lake effect/enhanced snow will be a threat later Friday and through the weekend for snow belts of eastern upper and northwest lower MI. Looks like the potential for quite a few embedded short waves/upper lows, which would aid in enhancing lake effect coverage and intensity during this time. Anyone within the N to NW snowbelts are at play, with a focus on the NW snowbelts for several more inches of snow this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 643 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Widespread snow will continue for the next several hours across northern Michigan, eventually moving east late this morning. VSBYs between 1-3SM are likely underneath this snow with MVFR CIGs for most sites. Improving conditions are anticipated as snow moves out, potentially becoming VFR for a time late this afternoon/evening for some locations before MVFR CIGs are expected to return tonight. Additional lake effect snow showers could impact CIU, TVC, and MBL at times later today through the end of the issuance period. Otherwise, current northeast winds will strengthen and gradually turn to northwest with time today, gusting to 25-30 kts into this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321.