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KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly light snow moves in early Monday morning with 1-2" expected for most west of I-75 by Tuesday morning. Localized amounts around 3" possible near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

- Next chances for widespread accumulating snow return late this week after precip-free weather through the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 207 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive longwave troughing will continue to pivot across the eastern CONUS and over the Atlantic tonight and Monday. Meanwhile, embedded ridging over the Great Lakes will slide east as shortwave troughing punches overhead by Monday evening. This feature will provide enough forcing for a relatively weak, strung-out cyclone to work across Ontario and the far northern Great Lakes tonight through Monday as the attendant cold front swings across northern Michigan Monday morning and afternoon.

Forecast Details:

Mainly light snow beginning early Monday morning -- Snow returns to northern Michigan early Monday morning along and ahead of the aforementioned front, beginning first along the Lake Michigan shoreline and parts of eastern upper before sunrise. Lack of more substantial forcing and moisture will work to limit snowfall intensity and amounts as snow moves east across the area through the morning/afternoon. That said, forecast soundings display several thousand feet of saturation through the DGZ, which will support efficient snowfall with high SLRs. Snow looks to hold on across northwest lower and the eastern U.P. longer than areas to the east as light lake effect snow showers set in later Monday into Monday night. All in all, a fluffy 1-2" is expected across most areas west of I-75 heading into Monday night with localized amounts around 3" possible closer to the Lake Michigan shoreline, especially south and west of Grand Traverse Bay. Lesser amounts of 1" or less are anticipated for most along and east of I-75. Steadiest snowfall is expected Monday morning where drops in visibility and impacts to travel will be possible under heavier snow bands.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 207 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing starting the period off centered over southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will progress east as ridging folds overhead once again heading into the middle of the week. In turn, surface high pressure will build across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes through Wednesday. A strong mid/upper-level jet will then punch over the region late Thursday/early Friday, supporting a clipper that looks to trek across Ontario and the Great Lakes during that time. Behind this, high pressure looks to build overhead next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Widespread accumulating snow late this week -- After light lake effect snow showers end Tuesday morning followed by a break in snow chances for most through Wednesday, snow returns to the Northwoods late Thursday and Friday as the aforementioned clipper moves through. As the previous forecaster noted, latest guidance continues to increase confidence in amounts staying close to advisory criteria or below for most of the area. Forecast details will become more clear as the week progresses.

Otherwise, highs in the upper teens and 20s are likely for most of the area through the end of the week. Much colder temperatures make a return next weekend behind the front, however, with highs in the single digits and teens and overnight lows likely dipping well below zero.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 556 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR at PLN/APN/TVC this evening with MVFR CIGs at CIU/MBL due to lake induced clouds off of Lake Michigan. A clipper system crosses northern MI later tonight into Monday with more widespread MVFR CIGs and light snow, perhaps dropping VSBYs to IFR at times. Most widespread snow expected to be east of all terminals by midday Monday, with just a few lingering lake effect snow showers through the end of the TAF period -- primarily CIU and northwest lower MI terminals. Winds generally light out of the south tonight through Monday morning before veering west-northwesterly Monday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.