textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity continues with some improvement from previous days.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms through Friday with severe storms possible with large hail, damaging wind and heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Strong upper ridge across the Great Lakes will gradually flatten through the end of the week as several shortwaves and strengthening westerlies slowly suppress the highest heights. A quasi-stationary boundary snaked across northern Michigan currently will also sink southward with time, which may push the shower/storm focus further south, as well as providing at least a little relief from the 70F+ dewpoints. Convective evolution from day to day will remain challenging with low predictability.

Additional showers/storms likely tonight with additional shortwave energy riding along an elongated low level theta-e gradient draped across parts of Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Low confidence in the details, as convective evolution will be driven largely by mesoscale processes and residual outflows from earlier convection. Plenty of moisture and instability and severe storms will remain possible with large hail and damaging winds. The main focus of showers/storms may shift slightly south on Thursday with the gradient of deepest moisture/instability. Severe storms possible once again.

Stronger forcing with a more defined shortwave arrives for the end of the week with potentially greater coverage of showers/storms for later Friday into Friday night. Organized convection certainly a possibility during this timeframe with plenty of instabilty and shear. Locally heavy rain also possible. Unsettled weather continues into the holiday weekend with more shower/storm chances. Temperatures should be more comfortable with highs generally in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s.

We may fall short of heat advisory criteria in some areas on Thursday with slightly lower dewpoints. But heat indices still likely 90-100F in many areas (possibly 100-105 southeast areas). So will let heat advisory continue.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Another challenging taf period with very low confidence in convective evolution. Overall, mainly VFR conditions are expected with just some higher based cumulus and some passing convective blowoff cirrus. Again, will simply need to monitor radar trends for specific impacts and timing of any activity into our taf locations. Future amendments more than anticipated. Light winds this morning do become bit gusty out of the southwest and west later this morning and afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-097>099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-344- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-342. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ346.