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KEY MESSAGES

- Fog tonight; Rain returns Thursday with potential for freezing rain/drizzle in spots

- Thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with some heavy rain and hydro concerns

- Active weather continues into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Trough digging into the PacNW...with ridge building over the Intermountain West...and elongated northern stream troughing over the remainder of Canada (more potent shortwave over Quebec). Strong baroclinic zone and attendant 100+kt upper jet across southern Canada; 850mb temps from -24C and colder over central Canada to +10C in North Dakota, and attendant surface front is on the warm side of this...stretching from British Columbia/Alberta to the Arrowhead of MN, across northern Lake Superior, and eastward through Quebec...with some moisture along this boundary. In the southern stream of the flow...southwesterly flow from SoCal to a PV swirly over Colorado...and elongated ridging over the southeastern US. Return flow into the mid MS and OH Valleys along a front stretching from west TX to MO and along the OH River to WV and then off the coast; this front separates mild air across the Midwest from the warm/moist air across the southeastern US. Here in the Great Lakes region...we remain under an upper level confluence zone and subsequently, under a surface ridge axis stretching from the central US eastward through New England...under generally seasonable conditions here in the meteorological creme filling sandwiched between winter to our north and spring/summer to our south.

Confluence zone remains in place today...but return flow should strengthen late as the swirly over CO moves eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Expect strengthening easterly flow and increasing moisture tonight into Thursday...with generally rain, but some potential for freezing rain across northeast Lower MI where things could remain on the cooler side. This niblet crosses the Upper Great Lakes Thursday...as sharp upstream troughing will be on the move...driving strong return flow across the MS Valley into the Midwest again, leading to a warmup on Friday across at least portions of the area, as well as some additional rain showers. Thunderstorms will be on the table Friday night into Saturday as the sharp trough continues to trek across the area, dragging an attendant surface cold front into the region at some point Saturday (potentially early). Quiet weather may not last terribly long behind this...as another system zips across central Canada, though most of the activity with this may remain to our north...until the baroclinic zone slowly droops southward into the region early next week...as upstream pattern amplifies again, allowing an opportunity for cold air to flood into the northern US again.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Fog tonight...dewpoints already on the increase compared to the last couple days (in the 30s by noon, compared to the single digits and teens yesterday)...and subtle return flow through the MS Valley should further this idea (though it is possible dewpoints could drop off a bit overnight across central/NE Lower MI). Expecting a bit better snowmelt today given these warm, "snoweater" dewpoints along with much warmer temps today (into the 40s and 50s for most)...which should further the cause of an increase in boundary layer moisture, esp right near the surface, going into tonight. Still expecting nebulous low-level flow early tonight with some clearing, which should further aid in the idea of dense fog development...not unlike what was noted upstream this morning. Think the best shot of this will be the EUP and Tip of the Mitt regions in particular (though possibly elsewhere)...as it appears the low-level col/deformation region will try to drift southward (col regions typically favor stagnant flow and fog). Certainly possible fog could hang on into Thursday as well...and wouldn't be entirely surprised if we remained on the foggier side at times, particularly over the deeper snowpack, going into the end of the week with the expected surge of warm/moist air ahead of Friday/Saturday's system.

P-type troubles Thursday (possibly Friday?)...Still think we have some p-type concerns Thursday, particularly for NE Lower/interior northern Lower MI and the Yoop. Signals for some drier air to pivot in from the southeast tonight and hang on into tomorrow suggest potential for temps tonight to drop back into the upper 20s to around freezing tonight...and east/northeast flow suggests some maintenance of this low-level cold layer is possible...though it currently appears it could be a struggle to tap drier/colder air to our north (thus, lowering potential for freezing rain/drizzle), which may be just as well. Deeper moisture/moisture aloft will be slow to creep in from the southwest through the day, and the best shot at saturation through the column should be near the M-55 corridor and generally southeast of a line from Alpena to Houghton Lake where there is a better shot at higher QPF totals through Thursday night; the drier air across the region could slow precip onset for most areas and potentially keep things dry for most. All this being said...my other primary concern, looking at forecast soundings, is the potential for a fairly saturated stable layer up to around 900mb or so (the warm nose) which should be flirting with freezing at the surface (likely cooler the further north you go). It does not necessarily collocate well with large-scale forcing or moisture...but my suspicions (and this may well be the worst case scenario) are that easterly winds will promote upslope flow over interior northeast Lower Michigan and lead to a period of drizzle which could freeze on if surface temps are cold enough. (Potential for most of the column to be cold enough across the EUP.) Attm...not expecting much more than a few hundredths of ice overall by Friday morning...with hi-res prob guidance topping out around a 5-10 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation by Friday morning near the higher terrain from Butman in NW Gladwin county to near Lupton/Glennie, including the West Branch area; 80+ percent chance of at least 0.01 inch. This is the most aggressive prob guidance attm; ensemble guidance with more members (including synoptic members) is not really keen on this at all, which to be honest, could mean I am totally out to lunch with my concerns. Think this is something we will need to monitor closely, and wait for the whites of its eyes before pulling the trigger on any headlines.

Storms Friday night into Saturday with heavy rain concerns...warm front lifts in, likely later Friday into Friday night. Thermal profiles above the warm nose will be reasonably unstable, and thus, expect thunder Friday night into Saturday. Weak stability aloft in the presence of anomalous moisture (pwats around an inch would be well above climo for this time of year) suggests we could be looking at some better bang for our QPF buck, particularly along and north of the warm front where there could be some potential for a prolonged period of rainfall and better shot at fgen to focus heavier rainfall...though there is still some uncertainty in the position of the better fgen banding. Naturally, heavy rain on top of our melting snow suggests some concerns for hydro/flooding, and will need to monitor this going forward. Worth noting that the River Forecast Center has the Manistee River near Sherman rising into action stage by mostly snowmelt going into the end of the river forecast period...so certainly something to keep an eye on.

As far as thunderstorm concerns go...strong winds aloft suggest we will be looking sufficient bulk-layer shear for better storm organization...and think generally southwesterly flow more or less aligning with the boundary could lead to some upscale growth of storms in a high-shear, low-cape environment. 50kt LLJ also gives concern for a wind threat, particularly Saturday morning ahead of the cold front, where there is some potential for a bit of surface based instability to creep in. Elevated instability and generally cold thermal profiles suggest hail will also be a threat. Will definitely need to keep an eye on things for late Friday night/early Saturday morning, especially noting that parts of northwest Lower Michigan have been bumped into the Day 3 marginal from SPC at the afternoon update.

Active next week...Latest guidance trends like the idea of the northern stream picking up a cutoff low over the Desert SW early/mid week next week...which is more favorable for the cold air floodgates over northwest Canada to open. In this case...we could be looking at a stronger wintry system for the middle of next week, given the potential for a well-defined trough axis likely leading to a more well-defined system overall...along with a sharper thermal gradient, in addition to better moisture return ahead of it. Still too early to tell exactly how this evolves...as it remains unclear how far south the BCZ from Sunday ends up slipping...and this would be very important for ptype concerns. The Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe (and perhaps beyond) will certainly be worth keeping an eye on as we go forward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR through the afternoon and evening for most (outside of a very brief MVFR window potentially at KCIU), then we watch low clouds and the potential for BR/FG tonight. Best potential for FG will be KAPN, KPLN, and KCIU, with low VSBYs lingering through the early morning. Additionally, MVFR-IFR CIGs for these locations, down to LIFR within any thick and more persistent FG. Showers approach from the south on Thursday, but unclear whether it will move north enough to impact terminals.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.