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KEY MESSAGES

- Some rain chances return Sunday along with breezy/windy conditions.

- Midweek precipitation chances??

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Pacific-influenced flow pattern continues across North America with cold air bottled up above the Arctic Circle. Split flow across the CONUS emanating around a strong upper low over the northeast Pacific; flow splits over the nation's midsection with several waves of note in the northern branch. Upper low continues to spin across the Great Lakes today (dynamic tropopause down to 650mb over western New York/Pennsylvania)...with upstream short wave troughs over northwest Ontario/upper Great Lakes/Midwest...and another coming out of the Canadian Rockies. Interestingly...the trough moving into the Great Lakes is accompanied by short wave ridging at 700mb/850mb...along with drier air moving into Michigan as flow transitions from cyclonic to anticyclonic. This trough over ridge juxtaposition also resulting in steep mid level lapse rates beneath the thermal trough aloft. Lingering cyclonic flow in the boundary layer today across Lower Michigan...with a narrow ridge of high pressure extending from he Midwest northeast across Wisconsin/Upper Michigan into northeast Ontario/northern Quebec. Short wave trough coming out of the Canadian Rockies will be the next feature of interest as it digs southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday. Associated surface low remains north of Lake Superior but a cold/occluded front will cross Michigan Sunday. This will be followed by another low-amplitude ripple Monday night/Tuesday before the pattern starts to amplify for midweek. Strong Pacific jet gooses the eastern Pacific trough with resultant downstream energy propagation. Long wave trough gets carved out across eastern North America for the latter half of the week...evolution of this trough and its various components will play a big role in surface evolution and potential cyclogenesis in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. At the very least a nice push of colder air into the Great Lakes is in the offing...along with some precipitation type issues.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Some rain chances return Sunday along with breezy/windy conditions: Little bowling ball of upper level energy will roll across the Lake Superior basin Sunday...most of the deep moisture with this feature seems to lag the better dynamics. It may be that best rain chances will be with lake effect/lake enhancement Sunday afternoon/Sunday night as boundary layer flow comes back around to the northwest and 850mb temperatures sink below zero. Boundary layer winds will begin to increase again tonight...some gustiness due to mechanical turbulence but stronger winds expected Sunday with onset of cold advection and mixing/ downward momentum transfer. Wind gusts 25-35mph expected... 30-40mph around Whitefish Bay Sunday afternoon/evening (Gale Watch up for Whitefish Bay). Winds will gradually diminish Sunday night/Monday morning as a surface ridge builds in from the west.

Midweek precipitation chances??: Cold air does look to spill across the Great Lakes starting Wednesday...so there will be an increase in lake convection as 850mb temperatures drop at or below -8C toward Thursday. How much of a synoptic component to precipitation chances is a question for Wednesday...dependent upon low level cyclogenesis. Overall PoPs for midweek are low given the uncertainty regarding synoptic potential...and most of the precipitation probabilities for Thursday are hugging the Lake Michigan/Lake Huron shorelines with a northerly component to the boundary layer flow (for now).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 448 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions through much of tonight with just some increasing high clouds late. Development of low level jet above still light surface winds may result in some early Sunday morning wind shear, especially at KAPN. West/southwest surface winds ramp up quickly Sunday morning, with winds remaining quite gusty as they steadily veer to west and northwest into the afternoon. Low level moisture will increase as well, bringing lower end VFR to MVFR producing cigs to the area on Sunday. A few light and largely non-impactful showers are likely to fall out of this overcast, especially at KCIU.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EST Monday for LSZ321.