textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog tonight.

- Seasonably mild and dry through the first half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sensible weather remains minimal through the extended.

Calm, to subtle south/southeast winds tonight and temps dropping to saturation will lead to areas of fog. Best chance will be near Saginaw Bay extending into portions of northeast lower. Lesser chance west of 75, generally, but still patchy fog cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected. Wednesday, anomalous upper heights across the Great Lakes will get beat down some due to a passing disturbance to the north across Ontario. Depending on how far deep that feature digs, it may try to scrape far northern portions of the area. Nevertheless, POPs are <10% across the E UP. Sfc high pressure builds in behind this feature, becoming a touch cooler on Thursday, due to the northeast wind shift.

Upper heights quickly rise during the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. As such, temperatures moderate back into the 60s, mid 60s Saturday, with southerly winds. Outside of the unseasonable warm conditions, expect precipitation free weather as well.

Energy aloft that invaded the western portions of North America this week will begin to eject eastward with time, especially late this weekend. Consequently, heights get shunted eastward and squashed southward. West and southwest flow aloft will likely advect a corridor of moisture northward across the Upper Midwest, and thus, the chance for a few showers across northern Michigan. That is assuming the moisture/low level boundary push far enough south, which would result in a cooldown as well early next week. The actual push of coolest air with this cold front looks to be around the Tuesday time frame, as the main upper trough swings in the vicinity of the area. Thus, although a cooldown is in store on Monday, the coolest temps will likely be on Tuesday. The actual precipitation with this feature is still very much a question mark at this time. Still, no significant weather is upon us during this time based on the latest guidance.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 631 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions to start the period with skies mostly SKC and E/SE winds AOB 10kts. Increasing confidence for BR/FG impacts near KAPN/KCIU/KMBL after 06z. Vis reductions of 1 to 3SM for KAPN/KCIU, with vis AOB 1SM and cigs of BKN003 likely at KMBL. Cigs will lift and scatter with vis improvements after 13z for all terminals. VFR conditions for all terminals after 13z will persist through the end of the period. Winds will shift to SW/W around 15z as a weak FROPA moves through. Winds remain AOB 10kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.