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KEY MESSAGES

- Milder today with a few rain/snow showers across eastern UP.

- Breezy/gusty conditions tonight along/behind a cold front.

- Much colder this weekend with snow showers, light snow south?

- Temperatures moderate next week with precipitation chances returning, eventually.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

In-between a couple of pieces of energy to start the day today, with vigorous upper low and associated sfc cyclone wrapping up across Ontario. Consequently, pressure gradient begins to tighten across northern Michigan through the day and into portions of the overnight. Warm advection will likely lead to poor vertical mixing, and thus only occasionally breezy conditions at times through the day. A few pieces of guidance hint at a little low level cloud cover, and perhaps a little fog early, with some mid and high clouds through the day. Temps should rise into the 40s for most across northern lower MI. Otherwise, a few low confidence rain/snow showers will be possible across the eastern UP.

As sfc cyclone and upper level energy continue to move eastward across eastern Ontario, trailing cold front will advect a much colder airmass into the region. Strong low level wind fields respond, with +/-40kts at H850. That being said, still some mixed signals on how windy it will get into the overnight hours as the mixing appears to remain quite poor on some guidance, whereas others mix into 30-40KTs. Pattern recognition says given the cold advection, at least some gusty conditions will be possible, especially right along the frontal boundary. It is a little odd to see some of the fcst soundings (some guidance) not mixing efficiently and thus not realizing those winds down to the sfc though, and worth extra thought on how windy and for how long tonight. Will match in the E UP with MQT in regards to a wind advisory and leave the day shift to decide on whether to expand southward. Nevertheless, expect a much colder airmass for this weekend.

Much colder with occasional snow showers expected tonight into this weekend, but mainly confined to the E UP. Will have to continue to watch a band of frontogenesis on the leading edge of the building high pressure and west to east temperature gradient on Saturday, with some guidance trending farther north (notable increase in latest RAP/HRRR runs). Will be something to keep an eye on in the next few model runs, could be a generally light snowfall across portions of northern lower, mainly south of M-72. Worth noting still considerable spread in guidance. Temperatures this weekend will be in the mid 10s to low 20s for highs for a good chunk of northern MI.

Depression in the height fields for this weekend begins to relax, with heights rising early to mid next week. Thus, temperatures begin to rebound with values above freezing by Tuesday - Wednesday of next week. Will have to watch some energy for the Tuesday time frame, with at least the chance for some precipitation, and then more energy tracking northeastward later in the week out of the Southwest, likely realizing additional precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 632 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

A lot to unpack for this particular forecast period. Smorgasbord of flight categories currently across northern lower and eastern upper Michigan this morning as clear skies prevail at some sites while fog / low level stratus have formed at others. Anticipating the FG and low CIGs to be most problematic at PLN, MBL, and CIU this morning... with PLN reporting one- quarter mile VSBYs as of this discussion's writing. Anticipating this cloud deck to scatter out as S to SW winds build into the region... becoming a touch gusty at times in the afternoon (gusts 20kt+). Flow aloft will be racing by the evening, so if temperatures at the surface can cool, there may be a risk for some low level wind shear to materialize during this period.

A cold front then passes through and quickly flips winds WNW to NW... and that will allow that racing flow aloft to mix to the surface... with CIU seeing potential for 40kt+ gusts, while other sites generally hold 30 to 35kt+ through the night. Anticipating these winds to taper some at the very end of the forecast period, with perhaps a few snow showers building at CIU.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ086-087. MARINE...None.