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KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread dense fog lasting through mid morning

- Scattered showers and storms today and tonight with slight chances for severe winds, hail and non-zero tornado chances

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions today and Thursday, with heat indices in the high 80s to mid 90s.

- Another rough of showers and storms will move through the state late Thursday into Friday, with all hazard severe potential

- Cooler Friday and into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Current water vapor satellite shows a large scale -PNA upper level pattern present, with deep Gulf moisture advection into the plains continuing (more apparent on ALPW imagery). Deep moisture has been present up to the northern plains and southern CAN for the last couple days. This plume reached northern MI yesterday, thanks to an upper shortwave moving within the upper ridge (exiting northern MI this morning). Diving closer to the surface, surface observations show hints of what remains of a weak mesoscale vortex (center is moving across northern Lk Huron this morning). A "cool" front has moved through much of the CWA and allowed for dense fog to form under this heavily saturated airmass. Surface observations show widespread less than a mile visibility. Fog and low stratus will persist through the mid morning hours, until a warm front treks northward across the L.P. late morning through early afternoon. Any remaining influence from the upper shortwave/low level cyclone will have exited and the anomalously warm and wet airmass to our southwest will reach northern MI.

Behind the warm front, slightly drier air exists within the inversion, which will lead to surface Tds trending down as mixing heights rise. Temperatures will warm into high 80s to mid 90s. Although surface moisture is mixing out somewhat, it will still feel hot at humid with heat indices in the low to high 90s south of the bridge, and high 80s to low 90s for north. Widespread moderate Heatrisk with ares of interior NE lower at a major confirm the potential heat impacts today, with vulnerable populations and people without access to cooling systems being most impacted. Remember to drink lots of water if doing tasks outside, and to take breaks if you can to help lessen the heat impacts.

Due to a warm nose aloft and mixing of near surface moisture, shower and storm initiation will likely rely on forcing such as boundaries or the LLJ. The one exception to this is areas west of I-75 and south of Grand Traverse Bay, as near surface moisture and warmer temperatures could sneak up the coast before boundaries from the west move in or the tip of the LLJ arrives (which will be late this evening and into tonight). A few storms could pulse up in the afternoon hours, however deep layer shear will be lacking and ample moisture still exists (PWATs +1.5). High CAPE low shear and heavy precip loading will result in primary hazards like heavy rain and gusty outflow winds with the stronger storms.

Convection will likely become organized over WI (ahead of the larger frontal passage) this afternoon. Deep moisture/instability and the tip of the LLJ over WI during this time could result in an MCS at some point this afternoon/evening. CAMs show this propagating west as the upper winds shift and favor this outcome. Slight chances for severe hail and damaging winds as this large complex of storms reaches NW lower late this evening. Heavy rain will also be seen with this. Non- zero chances for tornados with LCLs so low due to the large amount of moisture present and shear accompanying the cold pool boundary as it moves through. Best chances for severe storms will be along and west of I-75. There is a chance that mulit-cell clusters are the primary storm mode within a better environment propagated by an MCS that weakens over Lk MI. Similar hazards are still in play if this storm mode winds out. The actual frontal passage will move through northern MI early Thursday morning (shortly after midnight), brining another round of showers and storms. Instability and shear will be weaker, but still present. Stronger storms could still produce similar hazards to the initial wave, however these will be more isolated.

Early Thursday, the upper low over southern CAN will start to move east and reach northern MN. An upper shortwave trough extending down to the central Rockies will move a surface high towards a persisting lee side low over KS/NE. These deepening features will enhance southwest winds over the central plains, and create one more effort to reinforce the deeply moist airmass over MI. The upper short wave will become negatively tilted as it treks across the plains shortly behind the advancing cold front Thursday afternoon. A newly formed surface low will track across northern MI later Thursday into early Friday. This system will provide elements needed for storms to organize as clusters of multi-cells that track across northern MI. The last push of deep moisture will result in high instability (MUCAPE of ~2500 j/kg), with near surface and deep layer shear both directional and speed (0-1km 40kts and 0- 6km 50kts) present as the lower level cyclone strengthens over WI. Low LCLs will also be possible. All hazards are on the table with stronger storms, and deep moisture and forcing should result in scattered to widespread coverage over northern MI. With this forecast still residing in Day 2, things can shift and change - especially with rounds of convection ahead of this. With northern MI's storm intensity relying more on the strength of the lower level cyclone and upper low, deviations of the timing and strength could change things for up here. The last surge of deeper moisture could remain farther south due to storm activity down there, the cyclone could be weaker and track farther south which would remove some of the influence from winds and thus result in weaker shear. We will be watching this, so stay tuned for more info.

Cooler temperatures return for the weekend behind the upper low passage.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Widespread LIFR conditions in stratus and fog will grudgingly improve this morning. MBL/TVC should be VFR by 15Z, APN/PLN 16Z, and CIU 17Z. Then VFR this afternoon, before multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA move in the from the west this evening/tonight. TSRA most likely at MBL/TVC, and strong storms are also most likely there. One or more short windows of IFR or worse are expected, but will pin those down further in future forecasts. Light southerly breeze today, becoming a bit gustier tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 020>036-086>088-095>099. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>349. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321.