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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase later this evening, and especially late tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain tapers off Wednesday afternoon.

- Breezy conditions expected on Wednesday.

- Mainly dry weather expected during the second half of this week, potentially extending into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging over the Great Lakes up to James Bay will continue to fold east today and tonight with surface high pressure stretching from Quebec down along the Atlantic coast into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, multiple potent shortwaves embedded in the main flow will progress over parts of the region through the middle of the week. The first wave currently over the northern Great Plains will punch across Ontario/far northern Great Lakes tonight as a second wave works overhead by Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Forecast Details:

Primary forecast concern in a relative sense will be the return of rain chances later today into Wednesday. Rain shield out ahead of the main wave will continue to work east over Lake Michigan this afternoon and is expected to keep losing steam with time. Said rain is already on the periphery of favorable low/mid-level moisture and is likely to outpace this environment -- eventually falling apart over northern Michigan this afternoon and evening, resulting in perhaps light rain for some areas and even no rain at all for others as falling precip struggles to reach the ground through the aforementioned dry air. Best chances for rain will come late tonight and especially Wednesday morning across northern lower Michigan as better moisture and support aloft works into the area. As discussed by the previous forecaster, meager buoyancy aloft on the order of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE with moist adiabatic profiles will largely limit thunderstorm chances. That said, a few embedded storms cannot be completely ruled out. Rain chances are expected to diminish Wednesday afternoon.

Aside from rain, southwest winds look to increase ahead of an approaching cold front through Wednesday morning. Sustained winds between 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph are expected from late morning into early evening Wednesday, with the potential for locally higher gusts near the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan shorelines as winds shift to west/northwest behind the front later Wednesday. Winds look to taper off some Wednesday evening.

Looking ahead, dry weather is expected through the second half of the week as high pressure builds back in. Cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday as highs struggle to get out of the 60s for some during the afternoon, but look to rebound heading into the weekend. Overnight lows may also dip well into the 40s late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Rain chances may return later this upcoming weekend as troughing works across the region, but the associated surface cyclone looks to be far displaced from Michigan and could result in most of the area staying dry through the first half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through most of tonight across northern Michigan. While light rain showers may move into northwest lower Michigan TAF sites in the next few hours, rain is expected to struggle to reach the ground initially with dry low/mid- level air in place and activity is likely to weaken with time. Best rain chances and associated low CIGs will move in early Wednesday morning. CIGs are expected to drop to IFR across much of northern Michigan Wednesday morning before improving to VFR Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds also look to increase through Wednesday morning, gusting to 20-30 kts into the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ322.