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KEY MESSAGES

- Major travel disruptions expected for the Thanksgiving holiday, esp Wednesday night thru Thursday night. Significant snow accumulations and blowing snow will make for hazardous travel across the snow belts.

- Another chance for snow later this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc low pressure system will continue to deepen today across MN and eventually WI tonight due to stout 500 mb low upstream. Batch of light showers will steadily progress northward through the day consequent of the low pressure system to the west and associated warm advection and low level convergence. Another little perturbation in the flow moves west to east downstate, with associated weak low pressure system and minor showery activity clipping northern lower this afternoon. Overall, not a lot of impactful weather today with just some scattered rain showers, temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s, and light winds.

Heading into tonight, sfc low pressure system ejects eastward, deepens across WI, and begins to move into the western UP. Consequently, sfc cold front will advect eastward and prompt the first wave of cold advection across northern MI, in addition to a band of rain. This first batch of showers will be all rain, but that will soon change through the day on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Day 2-4 (Wednesday - Friday):

Temperatures will fall through the day on Wednesday as the sfc low moves in the vicinity of the Straits and the core of the colder airmass violently oozes across northern MI. No matter how you slice it, the pressure gradient will tighten later Wednesday through Thursday. Thus, not only will any rain showers transition to snow through Wednesday afternoon/evening, but windy conditions are anticipated into the overnight, with gusts well into the 30 to 40 mph range, perhaps up to 45 mph in spots.

As the low pressure system moves across the Straits region/eastern Upper and upper low across northern MI, winds aggressively shift to NW and over lake instability will blossom lake effect/enhanced snows. Wednesday evening and overnight will probably feature a mix of broader lake induced snows and then an eventual transition to bands, or some combination. Guidance starting to hone in a little on the sfc low position/sfc winds, with a pretty decent period of NNW- NW. BL heights up to 700 mb, deep saturation, and favorable low level temp profiles will be plenty conducive for heavy snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr at times. Combine these snowfall rates with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and episodic blizzard conditions will be possible, assuming the strong low level winds can be realized at the sfc within the heaviest snow bands.

Current guidance has ~6 to 12" of snow with higher amounts likely across the broader traditionally favored NNW-NW snow belts, and really impressive totals across Antrim, Kalkaska, and vicinity. If a persistent northwest band sets up over Kalkaska county and vicinity, truly impressive snow amounts will pile up over the holiday. Most impactful period will be Wednesday night through Thursday night, which is the juxtaposition of the heaviest snowfall rates and strongest winds. The combination of strong, gusty winds and heavy snowfall rates within the more impressive lake effect bands will lead to periods of very low to near zero visibility, blowing and drifting snow, and hazardous to dangerous driving conditions later Wednesday through Thursday night. Those with travel plans during this period should continue to monitor the forecast for the latest updates.

There is still some uncertainty (as always) in exact wind direction/band placement and resonance time as the low pressure system moves off to the northeast. That being said, based on the latest guidance, local/regional policy, and a loose analog of previous events, there's enough to expand the winter storm watch to the south/southwest with either an eventual upgrade to advisory or warning level snows. Strong winds will likely push lake bands farther downstream, which could result in winter products extending a little downstream of typical lake effect zones. Strong winds could also result in lesser snows closer to the coast, one of the reasons for the watch to remain just east of Manistee, Benzie, and the Leelanau Peninsula (although prob should have just included them).

Lake effect snow showers will continue into portions of Friday before slowly coming to an end Friday evening, lessening in intensity and coverage with each passing hour.

Days 5-7 (Saturday - Monday):

Brief break in the action is possible later Friday through early Saturday, however, we'll have to keep an eye on multiple short waves later Saturday through Sunday and beyond. Pattern aloft includes upper ridging across the north Pacific/adjacent to the west coast of the US Canada with plenty of troughing diving south across southern Canada and into the US. Thus, the interaction of the aforementioned pieces of energy and where will determine the intensity, coverage, and location of precipitation and snowfall. At this time, another round of snow is possible, more area wide, for northern MI this weekend, perhaps beyond to some extent with this favorable upper pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 542 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently most northern lower terminals are seeing VFR/MVFR conditions as there is a break from RA. IFR cigs for KCIU will persist through 22Z due to lingering -RA. Intermittent -RA/-SHRA activity will be seen over most terminals after 18Z as the next system approaches from the west, with generally MVFR/IFR cigs. Good chances for BR/FG impacts to vis after 03Z for most terminals, which could yield temporary LIFR conditions for some terminals. Winds pick up as FROPA approaches from the W/SW near the end of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for MIZ021-022-026>028-032>034-086-095-099. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321- 322.