textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze concerns continue with persistent cool weather

- Small precip chances at times, especially this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Upper low will continue to spin over the ne Canada/Hudson Bay region. This will result in persistent nw flow aloft into the northern Great Lakes, and will keep our heights suppressed. Cooler than normal wx will last thru and beyond the next week.

Pretty extensive cu field in northern lower MI this afternoon, except near Lake MI. A stratocu overcast in eastern upper MI has not thinned at all (and has been very poorly handled by near-term guidance). Clearing in northern lower MI tonight may not be straightforward, with patchy remnant stratocu expected to again push across the area tonight from the west this evening/early overnight. Skies should at least partially clear late overnight. Favored bias-corrected gridded temp guidance tonight has lows tonight very near, or slightly colder than, last night. Pretty straightforward to issue a freeze warning for at least the bulk of the area again. Have in fact already issued for all of northern lower. Even last night, coop sites near Gladwin and Standish dropped to 32f, and expect tonight to be as cold or colder. And favored gridded guidance has shifted 30-32f temps closer to Lake MI, west of TC.

Stronger diurnal heating should be realized on Thursday compared to today, at least in the morning. Substantial cu will develop again by midday. An incoming shortwave, and associated cooler temps aloft, will result in steeper mid-level rates. There may be enough instability/local forcing to develop a few showers, especially in eastern upper MI (along a lake breeze convergence boundary), but also in ne lower MI (where a Lake Huron lake breeze will try to fight onshore). That instability fades Thursday evening. Next chance for rain is late Friday night into Sunday morning, highest on Saturday. A more amplified shortwave will drive into the northern lakes late Saturday.

After similar max temps tomorrow, we rebound a bit for Friday and especially Saturday (highs in the low 50s to mid 60s). Max temps will retreat somewhat for Sunday into early next week. Low temps will eventually climb mostly above freezing on Friday and Saturday nights, but that looks temporary. Additional frost/freeze headlines are expected on Thursday night, and further ones may be needed Sunday night and beyond.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR condtions expected to continue through the issuance period. Occasionally breezy west-northwest winds (up to ~25 knots) will continue through this afternoon before winds become calm this evening through tonight. Winds become breezy once again Thursday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. MARINE...None.