textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Some showers try to leak into Eastern Upper Michigan today.

- Better rain chances move in tonight into Tuesday.

- Stout system to bring windy conditions and seasonably cold temperatures later Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Sfc boundary works into the E UP through the day today, with weak low pressure system across northern lower MI. Sfc wind pattern today will be northeast across northeast lower and eastern upper, and southwest across much of northern lower. Weak pressure gradient and winds aloft though so generally light winds. Main area of low pressure associated with a short wave aloft will be moving northeast through the day across the far east Dakotas and MN. Few showers today will largely be confined to eastern upper Michigan, closer to the Canadian border, subsequent low level convergence, and the better warm/moisture advection. Low end instability through the day as well, and thus, there could be a rumble of thunder/convection out there, but some of the latest CAMs say it stays to the north across the Canadian Shield. Still worth watching through the day as other pieces of guidance do drop scattered showers, and a rumble of thunder, across the E UP. Either way, not a huge deal and precipitation maker today. Temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the bridge. Potential for 70s and low 80s, within a few degrees of records but not expected to eclipse.

Mid level short wave and subsequent low pressure system move eastward tonight, with the low pressure tracking right across northern lower Michigan. Consequently, swath of rain and showers are anticipated tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers will linger on Tuesday due to the low level convergence. All that being said, the best chance for steadier rainfall should be to the north of the low pressure system and just east of the main vort max which is progged to be ~Tip of the Mitt and northward. There will be a convective element to this precipitation as well, especially across northern lower MI where the warmest temperatures and highest theta e pools. This could even out the rainfall distribution to some extent, or spread some of the rains farther south. Some areas have the potential for a quarter to half an inch, maybe more in the synoptically favored areas. Cool advection behind this system will bring the lovely 70s to an end, with high temps on Wednesday in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Towards the middle to latter portions of this week, significant ridging builds across the West Coast/Intermountain West, with energy riding the eastern periphery of that ridge. This will bring a significant and fast moving upper trough across the central portions of Canada, diving down into northern Michigan. Sfc response will be for a low pressure system to move across the Great Lakes region as well. Lift and convergence from these features will result in rain showers, perhaps steadier periods of rain, across northern MI later Thursday into Friday. Upper low begins to deepen to our east, and as such, so will the sfc response. With a stout 1040mb high pressure filling in behind this deepening low pressure, windy conditions are anticipated on Friday. The last component to this system will be the cold advection, as you'd expect from a fast moving, pretty deep upper low moving down from western and central portions of Canada. High temps will be into the low 50s at least Friday and Saturday, dropping below freezing overnight. Looks like a relatively quick recovery temperature wise though as heights rise by the end of next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 523 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Occasional BR/FG this morning, mainly at KCIU, diminishing around mid morning. Generally light winds, with an occasional gust in the teens today. MVFR to IFR CIGs build in across KCIU this morning, other terminals remain VFR. VCSH at KCIU today, not confident in impacts to terminal. Otherwise, CIGs lower to MVFR to IFR and lower in spots tonight with rain and embedded thunder most terminals, along with the potential for lowered VSBYs. Rain begins anywhere from 2Z to 5Z lingering through the night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341-342.