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KEY MESSAGES

- Snow/snow showers remain through this weekend.

- Below zero temps Sunday night into Monday morning across the interior.

- A medium potential (~40-70%) exists for at least 4" of snow later Monday into Tuesday for locations adjacent to the Lake MI shoreline.

- Another system bears watching for more accumulating snow mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1213 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Any significant snows from last night will dwindle to mainly light lake induced snow showers through the day as H850 temps drop into the mid teens below zero. That being said, best potential for a burst of snow today will be across northern portions of Chippewa county, with a quick few inches not out of the question for a small subset of the county assuming banding shifts far enough south. Some progged fcst soundings flirt with with a patch or brief instance of freezing drizzle as well, so cannot rule it out across the area.

Today, potent complex trough will be spinning to the north across Ontario, center slowly meandering across the southern portion of Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a positively tilted short wave on the backside of the trough will swing to the southeast tonight across the Upper Midwest. There will be additional short waves/pieces of energy displaced to the south within the general flow aloft. The combination of the pieces of energy aloft, general sfc troughing, and sufficiently cold low levels will produce snow showers/light snow across the region beginning late tonight into early Sunday for most. Generally speaking though, impactful weather through tonight remains relatively low (outside of a rogue lake effect band in Chipp) with instances of snow and minor accums. Daytime temps in the 20s and lows in the teens for most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Day 2-4 (Sunday - Tuesday):

Mid level impulse, seen at H500 & H700, and general sfc troughing will aid in light snow development across the region through the day on Sunday. An inch to three of accumulation will be possible, with a relatively thick and saturated DGZ making for efficient, fluffy accumulation. Some of the CAMs show convergent snow bands and the potential for meso vortex formation near the LM, LH, LS shorelines, but most keep these features predominantly offshore. We'll hedge towards that solution at this time but refinement will be needed. Another place to keep an eye on will be near Whitefish/ E UP, with a little more lake inducement/mesoscale processes possible, but this will be spatially sensitive as well. All this being said, this should be a light snow event for most, if not all, but some subtle details make this event worth monitoring.

The story heading into the overnight will be the cold advection with high pressure settling in from the north. Widespread single digits are expected across northern MI Sunday night into Monday with portions of the interior seeing values below zero (first time this season?).

Interesting setup heading into the early portions of this week. Relatively vigorous short wave trough digs into N MN & WI later Monday and Monday night. Sfc low pressure development expected within the vicinity of this feature. Flow around the low level circulations will lead to southwest flow across Lake MI, likely leading to a decent SSW lake effect/enhanced event Monday night into Tuesday. Snow showers expected across the rest of northern MI on Tuesday as the trough aloft swings on through. This is seen pretty well in the LREF probabilities, with medium probs (40 to 60%) for at least 3" (10:1 ratio, it might be close to double that in reality) across western Mack, Beaver Island, parts of the LM coast. Model_Certainty tool verifies the ENS, with moderate snows showing up within some of the deterministic guidance and blends. Something to monitor and fine tune in the coming days for sure. Next system will be right on its heels Tuesday night.

Days 5-7 (Wednesday - Friday):

Another system is expected to move west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday with sfc low pressure system progged to track across the Upper Midwest and then into MI. A couple to several inches of snow would be possible with this system, albeit this will likely be a quick mover. In the ENS, there's a subtle shade towards more QPF/snow across the central and southern portions of the state, but being this far out these details will likely change. Colder behind this system late next week with the potential for lake effect snow showers to some degree.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 452 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

IFR/MVFR conditions for most terminals this morning as BKN-OVC cigs AOB 3 kft cover northern MI. NW winds are around 10 to 14 with occasional G15 to 20kts for some Lk MI terminals (KPLN). Lingering -SHSN will continue through ~20Z for KPLN/KCIU, with other sites seeing occasional VCSH until then. Skies will lift to AOA 3kft near or after 20Z for most sites, yielding a window of VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Widespread -SN will return after 06Z, likely resulting in a drop to MVFR/IFR conditions again.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.