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KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger again Monday.

- Warm temperatures and continued dry through much of the week before eventual shower/storm chances return late Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Very little change from yesterday's thinking with amplified upper-level pattern in place across NOAM through midweek. Northern MI continues to find itself in the vicinity of the trough/ridge interface, favoring subsidence aloft and reinforcing Canadian-originated surface high pressure sagging into the western Great Lakes. Latest trends favor this pattern beginning to break down beginning Tuesday with downstream troughing exiting out over the Atlantic and upstream ridging trekking east into the Great Lakes for Wednesday. Pattern eventually becomes more favorable across the Great Lakes late in the week into the weekend for renewed shower/storm chances.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through at least midweek across northern MI with mostly sunny skies and seasonably warm daytime temperatures. Primary focus through Thursday will likely be continued fire weather concerns with little recent rainfall, low afternoon humidity and occasional daytime gustiness. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday largely in the 70s to low 80s area-wide. While some patchy frost was observed last night across the typically colder interior spots, think chances for this are lower tonight, but may increase again Monday night/ Tuesday morning with 30-35+ degree diurnal temperature swings likely. Raw statistical guidance, which often handles these excellent radiational cooling nights far better than blended guidance, depicts this well with our typically colder spots potentially falling into the low 30s Monday night.

Slow upward temperature trend anticipated Wednesday-Thursday as aforementioned ridging folds overhead. Wednesday's highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s away from the lakeshores with the warmest day of the week likely Thursday with lots of mid-upper 80s for northern lower and upper 70s to low 80s in the eastern U.P. Fire weather issues may persist through this time frame as well. Despite plenty of uncertainty with coverage/intensity, at least scattered shower/ storm chances return to the forecast Thursday night, and at times through the weekend, as southwest flow gradually draws in more moisture locally, with occasional waves making headway across the Plains, upper MS Valley, into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 113 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to support limited cloud cover and VFR conditions through the entirety of the TAF period. Onshore winds will change direction this afternoon due to lake breeze processes before becoming light and variable overnight. Monday morning winds turn ENE before building in the afternoon with gusts in the upper teens/low 20s.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.