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KEY MESSAGES

-Gusty winds and widespread accumulating snow return tonight through Friday.

-Another round of widespread wintry weather and heavy accumulating snow is expected Sunday into Monday.

-Seasonably cold weather continues next week with highs in the upper teens to low 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Deep 500mb longwave troughing occupies most of North America with its axis currently sitting over the Midwest this morning. Cold cP air is expected to occupy the Great Lakes region today through the entirety of the forecast period. Surface northwest flow will occupy Northern Michigan today, which is cold enough to support one or two bands of lake effect snow to organize this morning across eastern upper and NW northern lower. These one or two bands will likely turn more cellular as it moves into more stable air on land, limiting any chances of additional accumulations. Things quickly turn active tonight as embedded shortwave troughing develops over the Canadian Rockies and digs through Northern Michigan. Deepening surface low pressure combined with sufficient warm air advection and frontogenic lift will lead to several inches across northern Michigan with the highest totals favoring eastern upper.

Focus quickly shifts to the Sunday/Monday timeframe as previously mentioned longwave troughing develops closed low pressure over the Central Plains and lifts through the Ohio Valley. Classic cyclogenesis develops deepening surface low pressure and supports widespread winter weather across the Great Lakes region... resulting in another round of heavy accumulating snow. The long term pattern remains cold Monday and beyond as the 500mb trough axis shifts over the Ohio valley. This supports 850mb temperatures approaching the - 15 to -20 range.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Gusty winds and widespread accumulating snow returns tonight through Friday...Previously mentioned surface low pressure develops over southeastern Alberta and quickly makes its way to the upper Great Lakes this evening. Fairly decent organization is associated with this clipper as strong warm air advection with decent mid level lapse rates drive snowfall across northern Michigan. Snowfall will spread as early as 00Z tonight followed by pressure gradient force winds increasing shortly after midnight. Hi-rez guidance depicts strong 850mb winds of 50 to 70+ knots and the center of low pressure tracking directly through Northern Lower Friday, leading to continuously veering surface winds while gusting into the 40s between 06 and 18Z. Heaviest snow will remain overnight before the core of low pressure provides a dry slot of warm air to create a window of light mixed rain and snow showers Friday afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 3-7 inches are expected across Northern Lower. Eastern Upper remains positioned just north of the aforementioned f-gen band, creating a swath of totals of 7-10" and localized areas of 12" by Friday night.

-Another round of widespread wintry weather and heavy accumulating snow is expected Sunday into Monday... Latest deterministic guidance continues to hint at strong surface level cyclogenesis developing over the Central Plains and lifting through the Ohio Valley. Strong southerly warm air advection from the gulf along a baroclinic zone will likely lead to a tight gradient of very heavy snowfall on the cold side of this system while areas under a heavier influence of warmer surface temperatures would most likely observe heavy mixed precip/wintry weather. Blended models keep the CWA under the colder side of this system with highest probabilities of snow over a foot for several counties by Tuesday morning, but any shift in this system's track leaves the potential of much lower snow totals or the concern for P-type issues.

-Seasonably cold weather continues next week with highs in the upper teens to low 20s... Backside cold air advection from the Sunday/Monday system combined with longwave 500mb troughing centering its axis over the Ohio Valley will support temperatures well below normal for mid-March. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will be the coldest, remaining in the teens to mid 20s for most areas, keeping winter-like conditions through midweek next week. Temperatures climb back to near normal Thursday as midlevel ridging builds over the Western CONUS and increases heights across the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Perhaps a lingering light snow shower at CIU tonight; otherwise, a dry day ahead is expected with CIGs improving to VFR area-wide. Gusty northwest winds diminish through the day on Thursday before turning south- southeasterly Thursday evening coinciding with the arrival of more snow toward the very tail end of the TAF period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Friday evening for MIZ016-017-086>088-095>098. MARINE...None.