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KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for light precipitation at times the next several days.

- Temperatures above freezing and trending milder into the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Only gradual changes in the overall pattern through the end of the week and into early next week, with long-wave features sow to budge and mid-level heights steadily building into the Great Lakes. We'll still be dealing with northwest flow aloft through this stretch, but even that begins to relax some as the pattern tries to become a bit more zonal by Sunday. Aformentioned northwest flow will allow a few weak, fast-moving shortwaves to slip through from time to time, keeping at least low-end chances for light precipitation in the forecast... but overall, nothing looks too impactful at the moment.

For today, any influence from a system diving southwest overnight into this morning looks pretty minimal, with trends continuing to favor a more southwest track. Still can't completely rule out a few light showers/ perhaps some light freezing drizzle early today, but most areas stay dry as high pressure settles overhead. Winds gradually turn northwest early today and decrease further this evening into the early overnight hours. The bigger story today is the continued modification of the airmass as colder anomolies get pushed further out of the region. With a bit more afternoon sunshine mixed in today, temperatures respond nicely, climbing into the upper 30s to low 40s. Definitely a welcome rebound, especially for those still dealing with ice storm cleanup efforts.

As we head into tonight and early Friday, attention turns to the next quick hitting shortwave and associated surface low. With increasing mid-level heights the better forcing seems to be pushed further northeast, supporting a slightly further north track with this system. This should focus the better precipitation chances across the northeast half of the forecast area (eastern Upper, Tip of the Mitt into northeast Lower). Right now, expecting a rain/snow mix across much of northern Lower, while areas north of the bridge lean towards mainly snow? Any snow accumulations look minor with relatively limited moisture and the fast-moving nature of the system (an inch or less expected across eastern Upper into northeast Lower Michigan). However, I do want to note that their is a freezing drizzle/rain potential that could form with marginal temperatures sitting right at the freezing mark... Something to monitor in the coming forecast cycles, but with the temperatures hovering around freezing expected to warm through Friday morning, thinking it should be hard to get ice accumulations to coat surfaces. Temperatures continue to moderate Friday as mentioned before, with highs reaching the low 40s across eastern Upper and low to mid 40s across Northern Lower, warmest across southern portions of northeast Lower.

This warming trend carries into the start of the weekend as upstream ridging continues to build in. Saturday looks like another fairly mild day, with highs well into the upper 30s to lo 40s across eastern Upper and low 40s to even low 50s across northern Lower. A cold front sags south through the area Saturday night, bringing with it another chance for a few rain and snow showers. Once again, forcing and moisture look limited, so not expecting anything significant at this time. Behind the front, temperatures take a slight step back for Sunday into Monday, but still look to remain near to above freezing for most during the day (aside from Upper, which may hang closer to the low 30s). Northwest flow sticks around aloft, so can't rule out a few additional weak disturbances bringing periodic chances for light precipitation. By Tuesday, temperatures look to moderate a bit again as high pressure continues to build in from the west.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Any lingering BR/freezing drizzle should end over the next few hours this morning. Low clouds look to hang around this morning, keeping MVFR/IFR CIGs in place across many interior areas with VFR CIGs along the lakeshores. A front dropping through the area from north to south will help to clear low clouds out, leading to VFR conditions for all TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Low clouds will quickly move back in later tonight as a system works across the northern Great Lakes, bringing a mix of rain and snow along with IFR/LIFR CIGs late in the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.