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KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering lake effect snow through tonight mainly for areas near and south of Grand Traverse Bay.

- Moderating temperatures Wednesday through Thursday.

- Light widespread snowfall Thursday.

- Reinforcing push of arctic air arrives Friday along with associated impacts (cold/snow).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 207 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Surface high pressure sliding through the Great Lakes will continue to relax the pressure gradient, allowing winds to weaken and favor a land-breeze type regime. This sets the stage for another efficient radiational cooling night, especially through the evening hours. Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset, with the coldest readings expected in the typical sheltered and interior locations where decoupling is most likely. Current guidance supports lows near or below zero across much of eastern Upper, while much of northern Lower looks to drop to near zero or the lower single digits. Areas closer to Grand Travers Bay pointing south should remain milder, with generally temperatures closer to 10 degrees F, aided by lingering snow showers and cloud cover (limited accumulations of 1- 2"). Temperatures may fall even lower than forecasted if skies remain partially clear and winds decouple sooner than expected, but guidance continues to hint at a lower stratus deck moving in later, essentially plateauing temperatures and even slightly moderating them into Wednesday.

By Wednesday, midlevel ridging begins to build into the Great Lakes as upstream troughing flattens and a ridge builds out west. this will usher in a modest warmup, with highs climbing into the 20s across the region, marking a brief moderation that continues into Thursday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 207 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Attention then turns to a strong jet streak dropping southeast out of central Canada towards the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. A weak shortwave looks to produce light widespread snow Thursday, though limited forcing and moisture should keep accumulations on the lighter side with generally a few inches expected, with some locations seeing little in any accumulations. More impactful conditions arrive Thursday night into Friday as a deepening surface low drives a sharp arctic front through the region. Strong large- scale ascent and warm advection ahead of the boundary may breifly push temperatures to near or above freezing early Friday morning in some locations (warmest near Saginaw Bay). The front itself moves through quickly, marked by a rapid shift to northwest winds and sharply falling temperatures. Strong forcing along the front combined with favorable moisture alignment supports periods of moderate snowfall at times. Rapid temperature drops behind the front will also support quick refreezes on untreated roadways, potentially impacting weekend travel.

Temperatures plunge Friday night into the single digits on either side of zero with wind chills in the negative teens. Saturday remains cold with lingering northwest flow supporting lake effect snow, though due to the colder air this may limit snow growth efficiency, favoring visibility reductions over significant accumulations. By Sunday, return flow develops and temperatures begin to moderate toward more seasonable values.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 445 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Mixture of MVFR to lower end VFR conditions expected to continue across the taf locations. Will continue to see some pockets of a bit heavier lake induced snow showers impact KTVC and KMBL this evening...perhaps briefly dropping them to IFR at times. Winds become light tonight, with light west and northwest winds continuing Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.