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KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/Freeze concerns again tonight, primarily along and east of US-131. Coldest temps in the mid/upper 20s across interior low-lying areas.

- Brief warmup Sunday and Monday before cool temperatures and frost/freeze concerns return for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will progress eastward tonight as low-amplitude ridging slides overhead, helping to build surface high pressure across much of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A shortwave embedded in large-scale northwest flow will punch over the Great Lakes on Sunday, providing sufficient forcing for a weak cyclone to trek across northern Michigan Sunday and Sunday night. Much more expansive troughing looks to drape itself across much of the northern CONUS Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

Forecast Details:

As has been the case the last several nights, frost/freeze conditions are expected across much of northern Michigan again tonight. Mostly clear skies and weak/calm winds this evening will allow for temperatures to drop quickly, potentially dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s before midnight. The primary concern will be for areas along and east of US-131 where temperatures are most likely to drop below freezing -- especially typical cold spots across the interior higher terrain where temperatures could dip well into the 20s again tonight. In contrast to last night, the window for frost/freeze conditions may be limited. South winds are expected to increase from west to east with time tonight as the aforementioned system works closer to the region, along with increasing cloud cover. Duration of coldest temperatures and how low temperatures eventually get will highly depend on the timing of increasing winds/clouds. Current confidence is that temperatures will have actually started warming across most areas early Sunday morning before sunrise. Regardless, several hours of temperatures in the 20s and 30s has prompted another round of frost/freeze headlines for most of northern Michigan tonight.

Otherwise, mainly light rain is anticipated Sunday morning into Sunday evening with amounts likely staying below 0.25" for all areas. Continued west/southwest low-level flow will advect an increasingly warm airmass into the region, allowing for temperatures to warm well into the 60s and low 70s Monday afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected late morning into early evening with southwest winds gusting to 25-40 mph. Much cooler temperatures quickly return to northern Michigan Tuesday with highs dropping back to the upper 40s and 50s. Similar highs appear to be in store for most of next week with another string of potential frost/freeze concerns each night heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions continue into tonight. High-based cu has sprouted over ne lower MI this afternoon, with cigs near 7k ft. Otherwise very dry air is in place. Clouds will increase late tonight into Sunday, and showers are likely at CIU/PLN Sunday morning. MVFR conditions expected at CIU/PLN by late morning/midday. Winds become light tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-099. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ026-032. MARINE...None.