textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderating temperatures through Tuesday. Showers/storms Monday night - Tuesday; Marginal Risk for severe.

- Increasing likelihood for a return to cooler temperatures and potential wintry precipitation mid-late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Relatively zonal/weakly ridged upper- levels evident across much of the CONUS this afternoon. Shortwave trough digging through the eastern Pacific, making it's way into the Pac NW/British Columbia this afternoon. This wave is set to trek across southern Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS through midweek, aiding to bring our next chances of precipitation Monday night through Tuesday. Beyond this, a more active pattern in its wake with attention transitioning to a southern stream wave by later Wednesday into Thursday -- this one with the potential to bring a return of messy and potentially impactful wintry weather to parts of northern Michgian.

Forecast Details: Tranquil conditions anticipated through Monday with this afternoon's highs in the 40s and 50s only falling to near 30 far north tonight and to the mid-upper 30s across much of northern lower. Monday's highs generally between 40-45 degrees north of the bridge and from 45-65 degrees north (coolest near the lakes, warmed near and south of M-72).

By Monday night, especially after 04-06z, shower and thunderstorm chances increase from west to east as a strengthening LLJ aids in more robust low-level moisture advection and increasing isentropic ascent. While any convection Monday night should remain elevated, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, primarily across northern lower. Primary threat through this time frame would be large hail. Shower/storm chances continue Tuesday prior to cold frontal passage expected from northwest to southeast midday through the afternoon. Any stronger storms again pose primarily a large hail threat given continued elevated instability. As cooler air begins to sink back to the south Tuesday afternoon/evening, a transition to some wintry precip as this system departs continues to look possible, especially across the eastern U.P. where a mix to at least a brief period of freezing rain and snow look possible. Don't anticipate this mix to last all too long as drier air is fairly quick to filter in from the north through Wednesday night.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, attention transitions to the aforementioned southern stream wave with latest trends supporting sfc low pressure development lee of the Rockies late in the day Wednesday before ejecting northeastward across the Plains/mid MS Valley and into the Great Lakes by Thursday night. As is typical at this time range, lots of uncertainties with respect to the system strength and track -- both of which will have big implications of associated precip type and related impacts locally. That said, not liking the latest trends for those looking to hang on to spring. While of course subject to change, ENS trends support initial precip arriving later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, primarily in the form of snow, with a transition to a wintry mix to follow, including the potential for freezing rain. Depending on the track, some signals exist that we may warm sufficiently by Thursday night into Friday to allow for a transition to all rain, but certainly not ready to buy into that at this point.

Hot on the heels of this system, long range trends support a return to warmer temperatures and rain chances to start next weekend with a return back to cooler temps late weekend into early the following week (Apr. 5-6).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the entirety of the TAF period as SCT to BKN clouds remain mostly above 10,000ft. Current southwest winds will become light and variable overnight with LLWS developing between 00Z and 12Z Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.