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KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of freezing drizzle late tonight/early Thursday morning.

- Seasonably mild on Thursday with melting snow and rain showers.

- Sharply colder Thursday night into Friday with gusty winds, snow chances, perhaps a flash freeze.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis: The latest in our recent series of clipper systems will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by the end of the period. Deep southerly flow ahead of the system will eventually moisten an initially dry air mass.

Forecast Details: Strong southerly winds develop overnight tonight ahead of the clipper system before diminishing a bit and veering more westerly by the end of the day as colder air starts to spill into the area. A strong low-level inversion will keep the strongest winds from reaching the surface (40-50 kt winds not too far off the deck), but gusts well in excess of 30 mph are likely, especially where the flow off the big lakes has on onshore component to it.

The strong deep southerly flow and associated isentropic ascent will help to quickly moisten the dry air mass on Thursday with rain showers spreading into the area, especially during the afternoon. Until the deeper moistening takes place, patchy drizzle is possible. Late tonight and early Thursday morning any drizzle that falls may be freezing due to surface temperatures, but thankfully the threat of significant freezing drizzle looks pretty minimal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis: Clipper in the area at the start of the period will depart the area on Friday. However the clipper "train" continues, with other systems expected for late Saturday into Sunday and again Tuesday. These clippers will not be tapping significant cold air with temperatures rising above freezing in the southerly flow ahead of them and temperatures falling back below freezing in their wake.

Forecast Details: Precipitation will transition to snow in the wake of the clipper Thursday night, with lake effect snow lingering into the weekend, especially across favored northwest flow snow belts. The threat of a flash freeze exists later Thursday night into Friday morning as temperatures quickly drop into the teens from the 40s that had been seen earlier in the day. Icy patches on roads, gusty northwest winds, and falling snow will likely result in tricky travel for the Friday morning commute and can certainly see a Winter Weather Advisory becoming necessary where the better lake effect snow bands are expected to set up. The better accumulating lake effect snow threat will taper off later Friday.

Chances for generally light accumulating snows surround the late Saturday/early Sunday and Tuesday clippers, but neither of these appear likely to be significant snow producers. It appears we will continue to sit close to or along the gradient between colder and warmer air through the period. This is not a great set up for winter sports enthusiasts as we head into the end of the year holiday period as periodic snow melt will persist.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Current VFR conditions under increasing high clouds expected to deteriorate to MVFR and IFR conditions heading through this morning...with low cigs and periods of showers/drizzle developing. Expect these conditions to persist much of the day. Strong cold front crosses rapidly east across the area this evening, transitioning rain to wind-driven lake enhanced snow showers across western taf locations. Light winds will become gusty out of the south this morning, with winds gradually veering southwest and remaining gusty heading through today into this evening. Impressive low level jet through much of today will result in widespread low level wind shear at all sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.