textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering light rain/snow showers into at least tonight

- Milder weather expected next week, with periods of active weather possible especially for mid to late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 434 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Omega block trying to take shape over North America attm...with continual waves of troughing digging into the West Coast (120+kt upper jet driving some energy across the Desert SW, even)....keeping ridge persistent over the central US/Canada...and elongated upper low over the eastern US/Canada (530dam upper low over eastern Quebec). Shortwave trough swung through last evening with a boost of snow showers to show for it; still some niblets of energy to our north in the flow over Ontario, though overall, ridging is building into our area attm. Moisture wrapping around the back of the upper low into our area...with some warm advection through the column, particularly in the mid and upper levels; better low-level warm advection is to our north over central Canada and Hudson Bay where return flow wraps around the surface ridge centered over Ontario. Temps remain sufficient for overlake instability and lake effect snow showers continue, particularly over NW Lower...with some fine, pixie-dust-type snow falling at our office attm as a little bit of low/mid-level moisture pivots through. (Some bigger aggregate snowflakes around 10-11pm last evening did do their best to accumulate, particularly on elevated surfaces.) It is just a touch warmer and more moist tonight than it was last night.

High pressure will continue to slowly build in through the rest of the weekend, with lake effect rain/snow showers slowly tapering off as the last PV niblets finally depart our area Sunday. Milder weather is also anticipated going into early next week as return flow strengthens across the central US into the Upper Midwest...ahead of more energy digging into the western US. A bit of energy tracking across central Canada overtop the ridge early in the week looks to scrape off the top of the ridge Monday night into Tuesday...with west to southwest winds picking up again. Ridge axis builds into the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday, and return flow should have its eyes on us a bit better going into midweek next week as a niblet of energy tracks of the longwave trough into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest for the latter half of the week, with potential to drive a reasonably developed surface response...and will need to keep an eye on this. Signals also point toward troughing exiting the western US toward the end of next week, and will also need to keep an eye on this...though exactly how this evolves is still quite unclear. Bottom line...warmer weather looks possible for early/mid week, with increasing chances for active weather into the latter half of the week and next weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lingering Rain/Snow Showers Today, perhaps into Sunday...Moisture looks to strip out with time tonight into Sunday...and moisture becomes increasingly shallow. Expect this will mainly be a stratocu deck, but could squeeze out a bit of precipitation particularly in NNW/NW flow belts today as flow becomes more NW aloft...and shifting to more westerly going into Sunday. Not much in the way of accumulations expected today through the remainder of the weekend, maybe a few hundredths of QPF at best...and probably not much more in the way of snowfall. This will especially be true tonight into Sunday; as we warm aloft through the next 24-36hrs, think we have a decent shot at losing ice nucleation, and would not be surprised if some areas across the interior ended up seeing a bit of freezing drizzle (if they get any precipitation, that is).

Milder Weather Ahead...Anomalous ridging building into the eastern half of North America for the first half of the week should bring milder weather back into the region. PV max crossing the area in the Monday night-Tuesday timeframe should bring more clouds into the region, and if we end up cloudier, we may not get as warm as we otherwise could. This being said, it's not impossible the southern half of Lower Michigan (perhaps including parts of our CWA) may remain relatively unbothered by this feature until more notable warm advection enters the scene midweek ahead of the surface system. Thermal profiles support potential for highs to reach back into the 50s...a chance for us procrastinators to get back out and finish up those last few yard chores (speaking to myself here too)... though with potential for dry air in the region, combined with warmer temps and breezy/gusty winds...conditions may not be overly favorable for outdoor burning.

Active weather mid to late week...Attm, signals seem to be pointing fairly strongly toward development of a surface low over the Midwest going into the middle of the week as a first wave of energy ejects out of the western trough. Some uncertainty in how just how deep/intense this system will end up...depending particularly on the strength/tilt of the incoming wave (more negatively tilted wave would result in a more bullish, tightly-wound system across the Plains/Upper Midwest to our west). Do expect that it will be increasingly breezy for the middle of the week, though, between this and the surface high over the east/southeastern US...and it will probably be our next best chance at rain (perhaps a rumble of thunder? we'll see...) for the time being.

Appears this first system will lay a baroclinic zone somewhere across the central continent, setting up a potential track for the next wave ejecting from the western US late week. Quite a bit of uncertainty yet in how this, too, will evolve...but the setup is certainly favorable for another notable surface response across the central US. This should result in Gulf moisture getting drawn northward again...and we are in the season now where the storm track can play a deciding factor in potential precipitation type issues, even this early in the season. Think this is worth keeping an eye on going forward...though at 168-180hrs out, there is still plenty of time for a lot of things to change.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 639 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Subtle disturbance this morning to boost -SN/-DZ and BR this morning. Otherwise, mostly MVFR cigs today (IFR possible at times). N/NNW winds become more NW today and focus any lingering lake effect esp near TVC/GOV/ACB into tonight...and could go into MBL again overnight with MVFR (possibly lower?). Winds diminish and shift to WNW/W tonight (land breezes not impossible); VFR cigs outside of TAF sites.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ026. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ323- 342-344-345. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ321.