textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding concerns through at least midweek, particularly across eastern upper and far northern lower Michigan where snowpack meltoff may agitate already elevated water levels.

- Rain and thunder, heavy at times, to continue overspreading the region and lasting through tonight.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Heavy rain possible again. Potential for severe thunderstorms later Monday night and again Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures through the week, trending back below normal next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis: The majority of the forecast period continues to be dominated by a relatively shallow trof west/ridge east configuration across much of North America. The flow is split at times, though when this occurs forecast area is still under the influence of the warmer southern branch. The southwesterly upstream flow this week will transport an unseasonably moist air mass into the area, with embedded disturbances bringing periodic chances of showers and some thunderstorms.

Forecast Details: Impressive rainfall has been falling across much of northern Lower Michigan for most of the day and continues at this hour. Water vapor imagery shows a good tropical connection of moisture streaming up from the Gulf in deep southerly flow. Precipitable water values over the area are an unseasonably moist 1.5" or so. There should be a brief lull in the heavier rainfall this evening as a disturbance departs the area, but an MCV moving out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will be quickly on its heels tonight.

A bigger lull in the shower/storm risk is anticipated for most of Monday/Monday evening as short wave ridging builds across the area. Intense convection is expected to develop over the upper Midwest late Monday, moving across the forecast area in a weaker state after midnight Monday night/early Tuesday. That being said, significant elevated instability will have stronger storms capable of producing severe hail. This convection will likely push a stalled southwest/northeast oriented frontal boundary southeast into Lower Michigan which will serve as a focus for additional convection later Wednesday into Thursday.

Another break in the rainfall threat is anticipated Thursday night into Friday. The next disturbance arrives by Saturday with a renewed risk for widespread rainfall.

Expanded Flood Watch to encompass the entire forecast area into Wednesday morning. This is to account for the rain that has just fallen as well as what is expected into midweek. There have already been reports of localized flooding and river/stream levels are notably rising across much of the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

More MVFR to IFR conditions expected tonight under low cigs and areas of mist. Another round of showers will spread across most northern lower Michigan taf locations this evening, with these showers ending later tonight into Monday morning. Some improvement Monday afternoon as cigs rise and scatter out. Winds, at times gusty, will steadily veer to southwest tonight, with west to southwest winds continuing Monday. Low level wind shear will continue through the early overnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.