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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow continues tonight

- Another round of rain/snow Tuesday

- Milder conditions ahead

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 706 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Elongated N-S oriented high pressure across the central US on downstream side of ridge axis stretching from Nevada into the central Canadian Prairies. Upper low to our south...but primary surface system is well east over New England, on the nose of a 140+kt upper jet moving through the flow. A few disturbances still present over the Great Lakes...aiding in lake effect snow, particularly near the Lake MI coast...where a north-flow band has more or less sat most of the day...periodically drifting into and back off the coast between Frankfort and Ludington. Winds at FKS and MBL still out of the NE indicating that convergence band is still going strong...and still a little bit offshore.

Niblets of energy still pivoting through this afternoon...with upstream ridging to build in tonight. Expect N/NNW flow lake effect to continue through the evening...slowly waning tonight. Chilly conditions to continue tonight...though coldest air mass is expected to head eastward.

Primary Forecast Concerns through tonight:

Snow this afternoon through tonight...Expect steering flow to become a little more NW through the afternoon which should shift that intense band back onshore by Manistee through the rest of the day into this evening. Will ultimately expect NW flow snow to prevail into tonight, with the intense over-lake convergence band likely fading some as it loses better fetch. Additionally, subsidence aloft to provide further assistance for activity to wane a bit going into Tuesday morning. Think another couple inches of snow are possible overall within the area between Manistee and downwind of TC/Kalkaska through the night, though localized higher amounts closer to 4+ could occur, noting signals for better low-level instability that could enhance band intensity this evening, around 3z-ish. Looks like there is potential for a NW flow band to dump 2-4 inches south of Whitefish Bay this evening across western Chippewa County (most likely somewhere between Trout Lake and Brimley if it occurs).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 706 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Days 2-7 (Tuesday-Sunday)...

Upper trough finally gets shunted eastward...with somewhat more progressive NW flow across the Great Lakes, with a few disturbances zipping through the region...one in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, and another in the Thursday-ish timeframe. While it will remain on the cooler side...appears the air mass will not be quite as cold, and this should keep the rain/snow line a little closer to us...with potential for more mixy conditions through mid week. Ridging builds into the region again late in the week...with another system progged to approach for the weekend.

It should remain breezy through most of the week...with potential for gales at times on the lakes, particularly Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon...with less certainty for the weekend as there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the track/timing of that system.

Snow/Mix Tuesday...Expect an increase in moisture aloft Tuesday morning; have concerns that we may see some seeder-feeder to get activity started a bit earlier (morning hours), though the bulk of the activity will be mid afternoon and later...primarily in the form of SW flow lake enhancement. Should be more moist in an absolute sense (pwats around 0.5in or so) and think we could get some better QPF with this. Think interior areas that stay colder (i.e., higher terrain) will be more inclined to be snow...with more of a mix/rain near the coasts...but do wonder if that seeder-feeder idea could keep us more on the snow side than we expect. Think we will see additional rain/snow Tuesday night as winds turn more W/NW again...perhaps more in the way of rain as we start to warm.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions at most terminals to start the period. N/NNW winds generally AOB 10kts will shift to the NW by 02Z but remain light. Cigs will quickly fill in after 00Z near most terminals, becoming SCT-BKN AOA 3.5 kft. SCT -SHSN will be near most terminals until 10Z, with VCSH lingering until 14Z. Times of MVFR cigs and vis could be seen under heavier SHSN, with the best chances of this being over KTVC/KMBL. KCIU will likely remain on the fringes of MVFR impacts. Winds become W by 10Z and SW/S after 16Z for most terminals ahead of next system.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ031-086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ347. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 342.