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KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm today with heat indices in the 90s, esp. across NE Lower MI.

- Strong to severe storms likely late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Damaging wind, tornadoes, large hail, and heavy rain are all possible.

- Periods of showers/storms likely through the period, esp. Saturday and Sunday, with much cooler air on the way for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad troughing across western/central North America...with multiple axes/perturbations embedded in the flow...most noteworthy at 0z/11: a digging shortwave over MT on the nose of a NWly 120kt upper jet, and a lifting shortwave axis from Manitoba to IA/WI. Sharp ridging ahead of this latter feature from the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec...stretching generally into eastern Canada, with an embedded perturbation over western Quebec. Very warm beneath this broad upper ridge, with 850mb temps in the +16-20C range across the bulk of the Upper Midwest, even up into Ontario...and excellent return flow through the mid-low levels into the region aiding in the juicy airmass here (dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F as of 0z...with pwats on the 0z/11 sounding of 1.57in, well above normal). Some steeper lapse rates aloft, combined with the very warm air mass, helping to keep things unstable in the region (1899J/kg of CAPE on the 0z/11 sounding at APX ahead of the evening convection). Occluded low over Manitoba with a boundary stretching down to a triple point in MN, and cold front down through IA back into southwest KS...warm front stretches from the triple point into the I- 96 corridor of southern Michigan to a low over SW Quebec. Some convective activity along/ahead of the cold front to our west/southwest...with the evening convective activity overspreading Michigan as it treks northeastward. Much drier/cooler across the western US behind the cold front...with high pressure seeping into the PacNW.

Broad expectation is for troughing to dig across the western/central US today...reaching the Upper Midwest this evening and lifting through the Upper Great Lakes into early Friday morning...with attendant convective activity crossing the region...and primary concern for a severe weather outbreak across the Great Lakes. Can't rule out multiple rounds of convective activity crossing the region...though expect the most vigorous will be in the evening/overnight with the cold front. Upper troughing then looks to focus itself into an upper low over northern Ontario for the weekend, which looks to hang out over eastern Canada through the period, with signals for a handful of PV maxima to dig through the primary axis at times into early next week. This should broadly keep things active across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...as well as a touch cooler at times, especially compared to our current conditions.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Heat today...barring unexpected cloud cover from upstream convection, which certainly could happen... think highs have a shot at reaching into the lower 90s, especially across NE Lower where downsloping should be a factor. Dewpoints will be miserable as well, well into the 60s across most of the area (could drop a tad with some mixing this afternoon, especially if drier air aloft is able to work in at all this morning). This should punch heat indices up into the upper 90s to near 100F this afternoon, generally near/east of West Branch down into Arenac and Iosco counties. If temps are capped by cloud cover...will still feel very muggy/uncomfortable, though heat indices would be somewhat lower. Stay cool and check on your neighbors.

Strong/severe storm potential today/tonight... Think the primary timeframe of concern for us will be this evening (~22-23z) into the early overnight (~4-7z) as the upper trough approaches with the attendant cold front and surface low, dependent on what happens upstream this morning...with the main threat likely diminishing behind the cold front from west to east after 6-9z (perhaps even as late as 12z).

In the meantime, subtle boundary looks to drape across the region today, trailing from the niblet lifting through Ontario attm back to the Mid MS Valley. Will need to keep an eye on how far south this drapes today as the generally zonal(ish) boundary in the presence of S/SW flow aloft suggests discrete convective modes and an increased risk for tornadoes wherever it lies...though would anticipate it will buckle back northward at some point upstream this afternoon in response to increased south/southwesterly flow ahead of the anticipated PV maximum and attendant surface low. This also appears to coincide with some signals for the low/mid-level capping to erode in the evening over the area, and thus, could keep the tornadic threat going after dark. Potential for lake breeze development today could also allow for discrete convection to develop across NE Lower this afternoon, if it can overcome the cap...and could see storms crop as early as ~20-21z.

Generally appears there should be upscale growth into a more organized convective complex in the afternoon/evening, most likely starting just upstream over WI (as usual) and tracking east into Lake MI/MI...though not impossible it could still be growing upscale as it crosses MI. This would lend itself to a damaging wind threat, generally coinciding with better deep-layer shear as the low-level jet ramps up toward 50-60kts...though as mentioned above, a better shot at surface based instability in the presence of lower LCLs suggests embedded tornadoes will remain possible. Hail should be a threat, particularly with organized supercellular-type features to support hail growth...though deep warm cloud layers (through 13- 14kft) may limit larger hail sizes to some degree.

Also have heavy rain concerns, given the very moist environment (pwats 1.5-2in again) with deep warm cloud layers and higher K indices suggesting heavy rain is an additional threat on top of the typical severe concerns. Think this will especially be the case if we are able to get any warm advection wings to develop ahead of the line (not uncommon ahead of linear MCSs), as it could certainly focus heavier rains for a prolonged period of time.

Otherwise...for Friday...a few showers/storms could linger into the morning hours with slightly renewed chances in the afternoon, especially across the EUP with some PV moving through. Think some activity will be possible Saturday with a PV max tracking through the area; some showers/storms could develop along a boundary draping in, especially during peak heating. Pwats could spike up toward 1- 1.5 inches again with this...so will need to keep an eye on potential hydro concerns, esp. if these occur where any heavier rain falls today/tonight.

Think periods of showers will be possible into the first part of next week with additional perturbations dropping in Sunday and Monday; temps should be much cooler as the 0C isotherm at 850mb tries to droop in Sunday night into Monday...could be almost fall- like for a bit? Appears we could hang onto some moisture to preclude temps from dropping too much overnight early next week...but will have to keep an eye on this going forward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

SHRA trends downward for tonight, leaving some areas of low cloud in its wake. TAFs trend toward MVFR and IFR later tonight as a result. CIGs lift into the morning, returning to VFR through the day. Another area of low pressure and an associated cold front will force another area of TSRA through the region over the course of the evening, with continued TSRA likely through the end of the forecast period. Not impossible to see some LLWS as flow along / ahead of the front will accelerate.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.