textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow expected across parts of the area today into Tuesday, with the heaviest beginning tonight/ Monday morning.

- Combination of accumulating snow, strong winds, and very cold temperatures will lead to widespread hazardous travel Monday into Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 428 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

An Arctic disturbance digging southeast out of Canada will increasingly influence the region today, setting the stage for both enhanced lake response and a notable surge of colder air later tonight. Ahead of this system, strengthening southwest low-level flow develops through the morning and afternoon, supporting lake enhanced snow off Lake Michigan. The most persistent snow early today remains focused across northwest Lower, before expanding northward to the Straits region as flow continues to veer. Cold air remains firmly in place despite the southwest component, allowing snow showers to increase in both coverage and intensity through the day into tonight. Accumulating snow combined with increasing winds will likely lead to deteriorating travel conditions by late afternoon, especially in favored lake enhanced areas.

Synoptic forcing increases later today and into the evening as the Arctic system approaches, allowing snow to become more widespread across the region. The associated front is expected to push through the area tonight, bringing a quick wind shift to the northwest and ushering in strong cold air advection. Northwest flow lake effect snow begins to organize late tonight, particularly across northwest Lower into portions of eastern Upper...

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 428 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

A prolonged period of bitter cold settles across the Great Lakes beginning Monday as Arctic air fully overspreads the region. Temperatures will continue to fall during the day Monday, with temperatures starting in the teens falling to the single digits by this evening. Northwest flow lake effect snow becomes established Monday into Tuesday as the cold airmass deepens, with persistent snow showers in favored belts, even pushing further inland with stronger winds present. As temperatures continue to drop and moisture profiles become increasingly shallow, snow character will trend lighter and more powdery, limiting rates but significantly increasing the potential for blowing and drifting snow. Reduced visibilities with near-whiteout conditions will be likely at times, creating difficult to hazardous travel conditions through at least early Tuesday. Please see the latest Winter storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for additional details.

The coldest temperatures of the week are expected Monday night into Tuesday, with lows falling well below zero across eastern Upper and near or just below zero elsewhere. Wind chills dropping into the negative teens to lower 20s below zero. Highs Tuesday are expected to remain in the single digits across eastern Upper with northern Lowers sitting in the low teens. The pattern relaxes somewhat by midweek, allowing temperatures to recover modestly into the upper teens and 20s Wednesday. However, another push of colder air returns temperatures back into the teens Thursday and Friday. Periodic snow chances continue through the reminder of the week, driven by lingering lake processes and passing disturbances, maintaining a generally unsettled and wintry pattern across northern Michigan.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Still possible to see some IFR visbys/cigs at MBL and APN thru 10z; not impossible a more robust band develops but have suspicions this could be closer to GLR/TVC/CVX. Otherwise return to MVFR/VFR until cigs and visbys drop to IFR again after 12-15z, esp near Lake MI. Potential for a short burst of robust snow/lower visbys (IFR) again around 15-21z from MBL to PLN...then broader area of snow to move in near 21-0z ahead of a front. Light/nebulous winds tonight, with offshore flow possible at MBL, TVC in particular...then strengthen 5- 10kts from the SSE to SW thru 18-21z, more SW toward 21-0z, and could be closer to 10-15kts near MBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-020>022-025>027-031-032-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ017-028-033-034. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ086-087-095. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for LMZ323-342- 344>346.