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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances this afternoon with best coverage expected across the far eastern U.P. and northeast lower. Severe storms are not anticipated.

- Dry start to next week with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

- Trending cooler after midweek with highs ranging anywhere from the lower 70s to upper 70s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Double barrel shortwave setup traversing the broader Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions... a primary synoptic shortwave and associated occluded surface low progressing east across northern Ontario, and a second, convectively charged wave currently sparking deep convection within a mesolow complex across northern Ohio. Deeper moisture to subtly intrude over the next few hours following the passage of a surface warm frontal boundary (which has sent surface dewpoints into the upper 60s-lower 70s across the board).

Next piece of the puzzle is ongoing destabilization across the region, aided in part by partial clearing just ahead of a surface cold frontal boundary draped from roughly the Soo, south and west to Green Bay through Dubuque, IA. Anticipation is that another convective response is to manifest across the region... and convective showers are already trying to fester over eastern upper and far northern lower. Peak heating (1,000-1,500 J/kg CAPE) coupled with ample moisture (PWATs spiking over 1.75") will yield efficient rainmakers, though with bulk shear generally holding sub 30kts, organized severe storms seem unlikely. Predominant storm mode is likely to be a disorganized multicellular mode, with the only risk being sub-severe hail and some gusty winds (if deeper convection can materialize), particularly across northeast lower, where the aforementioned meteorological parameters are overlapped and maximized. Given the atmosphere in place, can easily see localized 1.00"+ rainfall amounts, most prevalent across NE lower. The farther west one goes in northern lower, the overall chances of seeing rainfall in any given location decrease considerably, especially once one gets west of I-75.

Convective processes to dwindle through the evening, with slow clearing overnight as low level moisture holds steadfast, while we dry in the upper levels. As surface high pressure moves to our southwest tomorrow, low level moisture will scour out considering reinforced NW flow. Result is a dry Monday with highs in the 70s west into eastern upper, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in northeast lower (with much lower relative humidity!). Dry weather will be short lived as another wave progresses through the region later Tuesday, bringing the next chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Again I state... this is not a widespread rainfall setup either, so not everyone is going to see rain! In the wake of this system, a deeper longwave trough builds into the northeastern part of North America, with the Great Lakes right on the western edge of the feature. Result will be a cooler area of high pressure settling in to end the week... and with limited moisture return, rain chances will be few and far between through the upcoming weekend, amid a stretch of temperatures holding in the low to upper 70s Wednesday through Friday, moderating into the upper 70s-low 80s by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Low level CIGs with VCTS and VCSH will continue this afternoon followed by winds veering to the northwest. Breezy winds will subside tonight along with cloud cover returning to VFR at all TAF sites. Some patchy BR development and low level CIGs remain possible after 0600Z, especially at KCIU, KPLN, and KMBL. Any BR development that does occur will quickly clear Monday morning as VFR is expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.