textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible tonight. Damaging wind, tornadoes, large hail, and heavy rain are all possible.

- Periods of showers/storms likely through the period, especially Saturday and Sunday, with much cooler air on the way for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis: A cutoff upper-level low will continue to wobble across central Canada for the next several days. A vigorous impulse rotating around the low will lift northeast across the Upper Great Lakes tonight, with an associated surface low. The flow across the lower 48 states trends more zonal behind tonight's system and this continues through the weekend. Then the cutoff dips a little to the south and east with mean troffing eventually developing over the eastern U.S. by the middle of next week.

Forecast Details: Initial forecast concern is the severe weather threat tonight (mainly this evening). Low clouds that lingered over the forecast area for much of today delayed diurnal heating/destabilization. The clouds have finally diminished sufficiently for better insolation and low-level southwesterly flow should continue to increase warm/moist advection in advance of the approaching system. Latest high-res model guidance suggests MU CAPE values up to 1500 J/kg by this evening. The deep southwesterly flow is also expected to result in impressive bulk shear values of 50 kts or better this evening. While the threat of severe weather this evening appears to have shifted south from previous expectations, conditions remain favorable south of the M-72 corridor.

Cooler air will gradually spill into the area behind tonight's system as flow trends zonal and eventually troffing develops. This will see temperatures trending below normal by late in the weekend into early next week (highs in the 60s-lower 70s). Periodic disturbances in the flow will bring chances of showers and a few storms from time to time. The best chances for showers/storms in the extended range appears to be Saturday/Saturday night. A few of the Saturday storms could be strong as stronger flow and a surface cold from move through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 651 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Still expecting at least a broken band of showers and storms to spread southwest to northeast across the area this evening, with a few hour window of impacts at any taf location. Current trends support the most intense storms remaining south of northern Michigan...although cannot rule out a isolated severe wind gust with any more organized convection. Expecting some MVFR to IFR producing low clouds to develop behind this convection during the early morning hours, with these low clouds mixing out through the morning. Looking at just higher level clouds for the afternoon hours on Friday. Winds become gusty out of the west and southwest overnight into Friday behind a departing cold front.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.