textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms through daybreak. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72.

- Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds and large hail.

- Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this week before turning cold late this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Continued active pattern consisting of troughing over the western CONUS and ridging anchored over the eastern seaboard. This will continue to result in an active, southern stream wave dominant pattern that leads to numerous disturbances riding into the Great Lakes region, focused along a stationary boundary draped over Michigan. A direct Gulf moisture tap will continue to lead to anomalously moist airmasses moving into Michigan, and thus continues a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat through the end of the week. Some signs of a pattern breakdown with cooler weather through the weekend into next week... with perhaps a brief reprieve from the wet conditions as well.

Details:

Ongoing convection to continue through roughly daybreak. Warm / stationary frontal boundary draped from Frankfort to Harrisville, which will continue to be the focus for deeper convection. Strong low level jet (LLJ) intrusion driving elevated convection north into the Tip of the Mitt as well. Heaviest rainfall rates and severe threat (hail and wind) will still favor areas near and south of M-32, though with the ongoing high water situation across the far northern reaches of northern lower, there will continue to be flooding issues there as well. Rainfall will diminish into the morning hours, giving a temporary break to the area.

Dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, with the warm front sliding just south owing to the ongoing convection. Another wave riding this front will traverse lower Michigan. With much more instability to play with, we may be looking at another round of severe storms and heavy rain... but initial thinking from guidance is that this will be suppressed downstate for the most part... perhaps scraping the M- 55 corridor. This will be an all hazards type setup, and unfortunately will have to be refined with time based on where the warm front goes. Nonetheless... it does appear the farther north one goes, there should be a lesser risk of rain and thunderstorms later tonight.

Additional waves of energy will barge through the region and deliver more rounds of rainfall. Still a bit fuzzy on the details for the time being... but timing is coming into focus. Additional showers and storms will be possible south on Wednesday, overspreading much of northern lower into Wednesday night - Thursday. Another reprieve likely comes Friday before a larger system passes through the region, delivering yet another round of rain and thunder Friday night through Saturday. This will bring about colder temperatures to the region... with the temperature contrast of colder in eastern upper and mild / 70s south coming to a conclusion. Highs by Sunday will be in the 30s to near 40 across the board with snow chances. The chill will moderate some into midweek next week... with highs possibly reaching back into the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 711 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

LIFR cigs/visbys to continue this morning; some lingering rain possible. May try to improve around 15-18z into 21z with potential for some MVFR to even VFR at times... with potential for -RA and TSRA returning after 23/0z thru at least 9z...esp for TVC/MBL but could reach to PLN and APN. Return to LIFR expected after 0-3z. Winds may start vrb or northerly this morning, and turn more easterly or vrb this afternoon, generally 6kts or less. Not impossible some LLWS may try to develop this afternoon and esp this evening/tonight. Think a subtle front may try to drift through tonight which could transition winds back to NW-ish late.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095-096-099. MARINE...None.