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KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger today and Thursday due to dry conditions and breezy winds with gusty conditions building in Thursday

- High temperatures warm into the 80s today for most of northern MI, with these warmer temperatures lingering through much of the forecast period

- Next rain and storm chances possibly returning as early as Thursday and lingering through Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Current water vapor and ALPW shows deep gulf moisture advecting northward up the central plains and reaching as far north as Manitoba CAN. Stormy activity continues over the Dakotas and into southern CAN this morning as a stalled cut off low continues to spin over Saskatchewan and Alberta. Upper level ridging continues to be centered over the state today with surface high pressure in place as well. Temperatuers will warm 3 to 8 degrees today, reaching into the high 80s for some interior spots of northern lower. Lake breeze winds will establish under a highly unstable BL, with the height rising up to 5 to 6 kft. A dry airmass continues to be anchored over northern MI, and when combined with the breezy winds and unstable conditions, results in elevated fire danger this afternoon.

Late this evening and into tonight, high clouds will start to move overhead as the upper level cut off gets shoved eastward by a mid latitude cyclone approaching the Pac NW. Dry air in the lower levels will persist through Thursday, and the clouds overhead will work to keep overnight temperatures fairly warm tonight. The upper closed low will open up and weaken as it moves east. Gradients will tighten, but likely yield southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph (coastal Lk MI could see gusts up to 25 mph) Thursday. Partly cloudy skies will linger into Thursday, and the dry airmass near the surface continuing through the evening hours. High temperatures will rise into the low to high 80s for most of northern MI. Elevated fire danger will continue into Thursday afternoon, with some spots potentially reaching critical fire conditions (Red Flag) due to the stronger and more frequent gusts. Overnight recoveries the previous night (tonight) will also be poor.

Late Thursday evening into the night time, storms could be marching across the U.P. and moving into the easter U.P. area. Chances for severe storms remain low, but brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds will be possible with storms. Convective remains from possible MCS activity or widespread scattered convection could wander into northern lower early Friday morning from activity to the west. By this time, the upper level high will be to our south and northern MI will be within this "ring of fire". By early Friday, PWATs will have likely increased to +1" with an LLJ of 20 to 30 kts overhead. MUCAPE will begin to rise to +1000 j/kg with increasing shear as well. This environment will become more ripe going into Friday afternoon with the aid of diurnal instability. Scattered to widespread storms of are likely for Friday. It is too early to have confidence in exact storm hazards, however gusty outflow winds and heavy rain are likely. Small hail isn't out of the question either, although deep moisture will be present by that time.

The upper short wave will pass Saturday, ushering in surface high pressure again over northern MI. Drier interior CAN air returns to the state for early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR. Still plenty of dry low-level air, though we will have periods of cirrus overhead. Winds will be light and westerly, though with lake breeze components, and APN should see a pure lake breeze this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.