textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderating temperatures early this week; potential for rain/thunderstorms Monday night-Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures return mid-week, with perhaps a return of wintry precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Quiet stretch to kick things off today through Monday as the sun tries to poke through across the region. Return flow will help to moderate temperatures with highs today generally in the low to mid 40s across eastern Upper while areas across northern Lower reach into the 40s to mid 50s (warmest for those closer to Saginaw Bay). That warming trend continues into Monday (and even Tuesday for some), with portions of northern Lower, especially south of M-72, pushing into the 60s. Elsewhere, will see mid to upper 50s across northern Lower with eastern Upper still stuck in the low 40s.

Attention shifts to our next weather maker, with precipitation chances arriving late Monday evening and continuing through Tuesday as low pressure lifts northeast through the Great Lakes. Guidance continues to trend warmer with the overall thermal profile, favoring mainly rain as the precipitation type. There remains signal for embedded thunder Monday night into Tuesday within a low CAPE/ high shear setup and could even see a stronger storm or two form, with hail and damaging gusts the main concerns at the moment... This correlates well with SPC's update to Day 2 expanding a marginal risk (risk level 1 out of 5) for severe weather across all of northern Lower now. As we get later into Tuesday evening, cooler air begins to wrap around the backside of the system. This cooler air filtering in looks to introduce a rain/snow mix with minor chances for light ice accumulations.. some areas could see a full transition to light snow as the system pulls away.

In the wake of the aforementioned system, midweek looks to quiet down a bit as a weak shortwave ridge tries to nose into the Great Lakes. This should support a short drier stretch, though temperatures trend cooler again with highs settling back into the 30s for most areas (cooler north of the bridge). Beyond midweek, forecast confidence is still lower. The large-scale pattern looks to become more amplified heading into late week and next weekend, with signals for another trough dropping into the region sometime Thursday through Saturday. That would bring the next chance for unsettled weather, though there's still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to available cooler air located in Canada that could drop down resulting in precipitation type issues. Something we will continue to refine over the next several forecast cycles.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Some fog with IFR or lower visbys expected thru 9-12z, esp for CIU; less certainty in fog for rest of area, but not impossible, esp for PLN and MBL. Winds could remain light/vrb longer than anticipated, but expect an overall trend to S/SW with time by morning...except PLN/CIU could stay vrb or slightly SE near/along a stalled warm front...and fog/IFR conditions could hang on up there longer into the day; better chances of RASN up this way after 20z or so, and esp beyond the taf period. South of front, expecting prevailing VFR with cloud bases around or above 5kft and S/SW winds 10-15kts, gusting as high as 20-30kts. Not impossible some showers try to squeeze out near TVC/PLN in the late afternoon/evening, and also will need to keep an eye on potential for fog development in late afternoon/evening with snowmelt.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ348- 349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.