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KEY MESSAGES

-Additional accumulations expected today as ongoing lake effect snow impacts the typical snowbelts.

-Clipper system tracks across the Midwest this Monday. Another round of widespread snowfall continues through Monday night.

-Mild weather builds midweek this week with highs above freezing Wednesday and Thursday along with rainfall chances Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 346 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Longwave 500mb troughing spanned across the northern half of North America continues to occupy the Great Lakes region with cool cP/cA air. An embedded shortwave trough with enclosed low pressure centered over Lake Huron progresses eastward as cool northwest flow continues typical lake effect snowfall across parts of the CWA today.

Forecast Details...

Today...Lake aggregate troughing tracking southward overnight has veered winds to the northwest, resulting in LES bands to shift back to a classic NNW flow pattern. As winds begin to subside, dry air builds aloft, and a lack of synoptic support will start to lighten the intensity of snowfall, but not enough to kill snowfall outright. Expect widespread accumulations of a general trace to an inch or two for most areas near and west of I-75. However; hi-rez guidance depicts one or two bands favoring regions just south of Grand Traverse Bay where the most ideal fetch is positioned. Localized areas can expect an additional 2-3+" between Sunday morning and 00Z Monday.

Tonight...Surface high pressure centered over Illinois will turn back winds to the southwest and begin to advect slightly warmer air into the Northwoods. A few flurries will likely linger shortly after sunset tonight, followed by another round of snow late tonight (see long term discussion below). Continued cold cP air occupying the region will keep low temperatures in the mid to upper teens across northern lower and eastern upper.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 346 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Monday and Tuesday...A weak midlevel shortwave trough currently over Alberta will progress to northern Superior by Monday morning. Even with midlevel heights slowly rising across the Midwest, temperatures remain cold enough to spread snowfall through the day followed by a quick shot of classic WNW lake effect snow Monday night. While most areas of northern lower and eastern upper can expect an inch or so, persistent southwest flow will likely deliver localized higher amounts of 2-4"+ to areas near and around the Straits due to lake enhancement.

Wednesday and Thursday...Longwave troughing pattern retreats northward midweek this week. A zonal flow pattern over the northern half of the CONUS will build a more mild air mass across the region as the Great Lakes becomes influenced by a strong Pacific jet maxima upstream. At the same time, another shortwave trough develops over the British Columbia coastline and tracks eastward to northern Ontario by Wednesday night. Warm temperatures build across the Midwest as this systems warm sector places itself directly overhead. After highs/dew points climb to the upper 30s to low 40s and eat away at current snowpack, rain showers spread across the region this Thursday. Too early to give a detailed QPF, but highest probs of rainfall amounts remain below a quarter inch.

Friday and Saturday Outlook...Long range ensemble guidance depicts midlevel heights remain relatively zonal across the region due to strong upstream influence of the Pacific jet. This pattern supports temperatures slightly warmer than normal with continued light chances of precipitation. Ongoing temperatures near/above freezing will continue the concern of diminishing snowpack and its importance on the local economy as we head into the holiday break.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1119 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Lake effect snows will continue to bring MVFR to even periods of IFR conditions at times this morning, with most notable impacts at those western taf locations...especially KTVC and KMBL. Expecting primarily MVFR to VFR condition at the other locations with just some passing somewhat higher based lake clouds. Improving conditions expected at all locations by later this afternoon. Gusty winds will continue into this afternoon as they gradually veer more northwest with time. Winds become light southwest to west this evening.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 602 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Lake effect snows will continue to bring MVFR to periods of IFR conditions at times this morning (medium probabilities of 40-60% for LIFR in heavier snow showers), with most notable impacts at KTVC and KMBL. Expecting primarily MVFR to VFR condition at the other locations with just some passing somewhat higher based lake clouds and a rogue flurry. Improving conditions expected at all locations by later this afternoon/evening. However, another round of snow is set to arrive late tonight into Monday.

Gusty winds will continue into this afternoon as they gradually veer more northwest with time. Winds become lighter out of the southwest this evening before ramping up again after 06z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ016- 017-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ342-344>346.