textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze concerns for at least the next few nights

- Persistent cool weather, only slowly moderating this week

- Only very small precip chances until the end of the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Upper low will perpetually spin over ne Canada/Hudson Bay region, though and beyond this forecast. This will favor persistent nw flow aloft into the northern Great Lakes, and keep heights suppressed. We have returned to below-normal temps today, and there we will tend to stay.

Cooler temps aloft over northern areas have resulted in steeper mid- level lapse rates near Upper MI. Well-developed cu field up there is resulting in a few showers, with rain reported at CIU/DRM earlier. These may linger into early evening, before heating is lost. Cu field elsewhere is much more shallow, indicative of somewhat dryer low-level air, with surface dew points mixing down into and thru the 20s. Tonight, as winds lighten again, we will another opportunity for good radiational cooling. However, guidance is suggesting a partly cloudy across northern lower MI, with both some cirrus impinging from the sw, and leftover stratocu advecting in from the w and being slow to erode. Should still be ample opportunity for surface to fall into the mid 30s to upper 20s tonight, with the coldest readings in the interiors of ne lower MI and the eastern UP. Frost advisories and/or freeze warnings have already been issued for all of northern lower MI for tonight.

High temps will tend to very slowly moderate moving thru the rest of the week. Max temps 45-55 on Wednesday, climbing to the low 50s to low 60s by Saturday. Min temps will also very slowly come along for the ride, but relatively widespread freeze warnings are likely again for at least Wed night. Gradual moderation starts to kick in after that.

A combination of increased attempted return flow, still coolish temps aloft, diurnal heating, and shortwaves rotating around the upper low, will support chances for showers by the end of the week. This chance is highest during the day Saturday. There is nothing here that looks like a for-sure washout, not yet at least. This will boost max temps to there warmest forecast values on Saturday, before retreating a smidge for Moms Day and Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR condtions expected to continue through the issuance period. Occasionally breezy west-northwest winds (25-30 knots) will continue through this afternoon before winds become calm this evening through tonight. Winds become breezy once again Wednesday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016>018- 021>024-026>030-032>036-098-099. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ020-025- 031-041-042. MARINE...None.