textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and storms Wednesday through Thursday.

- Warming trend later this weekend into next week, although remaining active at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to increase across Wisconsin late tonight into Wednesday morning and track into the Great Lakes from west to east, though it may take some time for deeper moisture to fully work into northern Michigan given the dry air currently in place. As a result, Wednesday morning looks to be more scattered and intermittent precipitation initially, with coverage gradually increasing through the day into Wednesday night as the system edges closer. The better instability is expected to remain displaced west of the area for much of Wednesday, and extensive cloud cover may further limit destabilization locally. Even so, increasing moisture and cooling temperatures aloft should allow at least some elevated instability to develop through the afternoon and evening. This should support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with thunder chances continuing Wednesday night as the main wave approaches.

Unsettled weather continues Thursday as the trough axis and associated energy gradually swing through the Great Lakes. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected, and Thursday afternoon currently appears to offer the better opportunity for instability, particularly across northeast Lower. Should enough breaks in the clouds develop, a few storms could become stronger during the afternoon into the evening given a somewhat more favorable overlap of instability and shear (given the setup remains and the storm do fire off).

A transition towards warmer weather arrives heading into the weekend as heights begin to build across the eastern half of the country. Temperatures should steadily climb, with highs returning well it the 80s in many locations by late weekend and early next week. Humidity levels will also be on the rise, making it feel increasingly summer- like across northern Michigan. However, the warmer weather does not appear completely quiet with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing at times. Confidence remains low regarding the timing of any individual system, but confidence is growing in the broader pattern of warmth returning, increasing humidity, and periodic opportunities for showers/storms as we close out June and head into July.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 655 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Only concern tonight is for the possible development of some early morning fog/mist...especially at KCIU. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue under just some passing high level clouds. Top/down saturation begins quickly Wednesday morning ahead of a weak area of low pressure. Showers will accompany this deepening moisture...targeting KTVC and KMBL. Confidence remains low on just how far north and east these showers will reach through the day. Cigs will further lower for the afternoon, likely bringing MVFR conditions to western taf locations. Light winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.