textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradually warming temperatures ahead.

- Perhaps active weather potential mid to late next week?

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Core of the colder upper trof has pushed east into Quebec and the maritime provinces. Milder air lurks just to our west, and it will make some inroads into our area, especially by the tail end of the weekend. But for today, a digging clipper shortwave drops toward Georgian Bay, which will stall out this warmup for a bit. It also brings some chances for snow to northern areas today.

Shortwave has been trending a bit more amplified in recent guidance. Though system does not have a lot of moisture to work with, there are some models (operational Nam in particular) that are relatively wet in the eastern UP this morning. "Relatively wet" still means less than an inch of snow. The HRRR/Rap13 both have less precip, though have been trending a touch wetter. Am keeping pops in the chance category, with just a dusting of snow. Have extended/expanded the mention of light snow, down to about M-68 in the tip of the mitt. This system also looks to bring more mid-clouds further south, and for somewhat longer today. That will hold temps back today, everywhere but sw sections. Highs were lowered a bit central and n/e, but were boosted in the sw, with MBL now progged to 40f.

With a bit of snowmelt in some areas today, and then light winds returning tonight, pattern recognition and model guidance is pointing toward some potential stratus/fog tonight. (More stratus then fog.) Do expect something of an increase in cloud cover later tonight and into Sat morning, before some improvements Sat afternoon. Stratus/fog is more likely in eastern upper MI and over the higher elevations of northern lower.

Later in the weekend into early next week: shortwave train will become somewhat active moving along the US/Canada border and far northern lakes. This will bring some additional cloud cover in upper MI, and some sporadic precip chances as well, mainly Sunday into Monday. Otherwise though, the gradual infusion of 850mb temps greater than 0C will help temps climb. The mildest readings are expected early next week, with widespread 40s in northern lower MI at least (30 in the UP). How long can that last?

Model trends into later next week remain nebulous. All sorts of energy will be punching into the west coast states, and eventually some of that will emerge east of Rockies and produce synoptic systems. There's a potentially highly-frontogenetic environment in place, with much warmer air in the central/southern US, and a still cold/icy Canada. But models are up to 48 hours out of phase as to when the next system of note impacts the region. And there is also some potential for a sharp cooldown behind that lead system...though most guidance is more tempered.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 556 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Mostly VFR today across most terminals, with the exception of CIU where light snow shower chances develop this morning. Snow chances could spread southward across PLN as well, but conditions are not expected to drop to MVFR/ IFR like CIU. Mostly VFR across other sites until tonight when lower clouds/stratus could try to form, bringing conditions down to MVFR across most terminals around midnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.