textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return for the weekend...but probabilities/ evolution are in question (some areas may not see precipitation at all).

- Seasonably cool Monday through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Corridor of quick flow aloft guided by two dominant features spanning the CONUS... longwave trough over the Pacific NW and a stout thermal ridge over the southern CONUS. Result is a ridge axis that noses its northern zenith into the Dakotas, with a corridor of WNW to NW flow stretching through the Corn Belt and into the lower Great Lakes. Stationary front currently analyzed from northeast Colorado through Kansas City, spanning east from there through Peoria, IL through Akron, OH. This front will act as the primary forcing mechanism at the surface as a series of deep Pacific tropical waves zip out of the Gulf of California and eject into the Plains. Return flow will lead to a northward draw of this front into the weekend, but stout surface high pressure over Ontario and resultant dry northeasterly low-level flow will provide a barrier over northern Michigan in regard to this deeper moisture advancing much, if any, into the region this weekend. The front will be forced back south into the weekend, with dry Canadian surface high pressure dominating to start next week.

Details:

Likely dry today as moisture intrusion is held off by aforementioned dry northeast flow from Canada. Clouds will increase aloft, but that is about the only indication that a robust rainfall event is about to approach the area. Key word here being - approach.

Guidance has continued a pessimistic trend regarding this intruding rain. Convection to really blossom across Minnesota and Iowa through the day today into Saturday, with resultant rain plume riding WNW to NW flow regime along the increasingly northward displaced frontal boundary. Latest guidance wants to keep most of, if not, all of the CWA dry through the weekend now... with perhaps some shower activity over Manistee and that is about it. Bigger story will be the temperatures... being on the cold side of the front, temperatures will be seasonably cool at best on the warmest days next week... with what looks like our first true stretch of fall-like days on the docket. The chilliest of the days looks to be Monday as the core of a cooler airmass builds overhead, which may lead to a handful of spots failing to get much past 55 degrees for daytime high temperatures. For reference, average highs in mid-late September are 66 to 71 degrees, The big thing to note... is that while we embark on this cooler stretch of weather, rain chances look to be rather minimal, so at this juncture, anticipation is that much of next week will hold on the dry side.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 422 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly mix out this morning, leaving behind VFR conditions under some increasing mid and high level clouds. May see a few non-impactful light showers impact KMBL and KTVC tonight. Light northeast winds today begin to veer to southeast tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.