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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake induced snow showers continue tonight for some.

- Watching potential for brief lake enhanced snow event later Monday into Monday evening.

- Periodic snow chances continue for the remainder of the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 212 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Low pressure continues to make steady northeast progress vicinity the North Channel early this afternoon...taking most widespread deformation/isentropic upglide driven snow east along with it. Post- low cold air advection regime helping kick off some lake-induced snow showers...with the primary target areas across parts of northwest lower Michigan within north-northwest low level flow regime.

Low pressure and parent mid level wave will continue to make steady east progress...with shortwave mid level ridging building into and through the region later tonight into Monday morning. Rapid-fire northwest flow regime continues however, with next wave and attendant surface trough set to work into the region later Monday into Monday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing lingering lake snow concerns into this evening, with focus shifting to development of lake enhanced snow by later Monday into Monday night.

Details:

While lingering widespread snows will quickly come to an end heading into the remainder of this afternoon, still looking at a brief window for some lake snows to rotate into the traditional snowbelts of both eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan into this evening. Window for any appreciable lake response will be a short one, with quick loss of any synoptic moisture contribution and steadily lowering convective cloud depths with increased subsidence via that approaching ridging. Probably looking at a few inches additional snow where better banding sets-up. Definitely not a big deal, but given still some lingering gusty winds, will no doubt continue some travel difficulties in those snowbelt regions. Expect both snow organization and intensity to steadily decrease overnight as drying and subsidence further mature.

Low level flow becomes decidedly more southwest on Monday ahead of that next wave and weak surface reflection. While the upstream low level environment will be a dry one and convective depths remain shallow, simple magnitude of the over-water thermal environment will continue to support some scattered light lake-driven southwest flow snow showers. Otherwise, dry and seasonably chilly weather will continue. Conditions begin to change by later Monday into Monday evening with arrival of deeper synoptic moisture and some weak large scale ascent. While overall convective depths are not overly robust, seeder feeder processes from a moisture rich mid level environment should at least theoretically support a more organized lake snow response. Target area will be centered within the Lake Michigan collar counties of northwest lower Michigan...with perhaps greater emphasis on Emmet County where low level convergence appears to be maximized. Window for better snows is a relatively short one, which should help throttle back on overall snow amounts. Still, could easily see at least a few inches in those areas...perhaps just enough to force another set of winter weather related headlines at some future forecast update. Expect some lighter nuisance type snows with passage of shortwave across the rest of the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 212 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Somewhat active upper level flow regime set to continue through the duration. Though currently not seeing any direct Gulf of America moisture advection into passing waves, attendant deep forcing and maintenance of a respectable over-water thermal gradient will continue to support periodic snow chances through the period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through Sunday.

Details:

Per the usual in such an environment, exact details with regards to additional snow evolution and amounts are lacking. With that said, decent agreement that next slug of forcing and attendant rather vigorous shot of reinforcing cold air looks to arrive Wednesday and Wednesday night. Again, overall moisture profiles are lacking, but breadth of forcing and continued lake moisture flux will support additional snow showers...most organized in our traditional lake prone areas. While again, much to early to nail down specific snow totals...two areas of concern are within pre-frontal southwest flow lake enhanced potential off northern Lake Michigan Wednesday morning and post-frontal northwest flow event later Wednesday into Wednesday night/Thursday morning (with the latter especially focused across eastern upper Michigan). Thursday looks downright chilly...even for early December...with some areas likely not getting out of the teens for high temperatures (gusty northwest winds will of course make it feel several degrees colder yet), and lows Thursday night likely dipping into the single digits away from those big waters.

Looks like another fast moving wave(s) arrives toward the end of the week into the weekend, with temperatures again supporting more lake enhanced snow potential along with it (them). And with temperatures expected to remain below freezing through the period...definitely looks like a pretty decent start to the outdoor winter activity season across much of the Northwoods. Get out and enjoy it.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Expect transition to N/NNW flow lake effect showers this afternoon, most intense likely at MBL and TVC after 21z with IFR/LIFR cigs/visbys, with blowing snow likely. Possible we could see another uptick in activity near CIU/APN/PLN late afternoon into early evening. Winds N/NNW this afternoon 15-25kts sustained, gusting 25- 35kts but should dwindle this evening/tonight...likely becoming light/variable (5kt or less) before turning around to the SW Monday morning. Additional light snow showers possible, esp PLN/CIU Monday morning. Most sites MVFR to VFR after 0-3z. Possible some fog/low clouds could develop at APN after 5z...have hinted at this with SCT005 in tafs overnight, less likely elsewhere.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.