textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong east winds (gusts up to 35 mph) and mixed precipitation chances today. Up to two tenths of an inch of ice possible for parts of interior northern lower and most of eastern upper

- Warming temperatures later day with showers and storm chances tonight into early Friday morning. Slight chances for damaging winds and marginal chances for large hail

- Another round of widespread precipitation Saturday. Mostly rain south of the bridge, with mixed precipitation chances along and north

- Colder temperatures and snow chances into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Surface observations show a 998 mb CO lee side low moving over KS this morning, with a dry line extending down towards TX. An upper level trough is bottoming out over NM and will continue into the central plains as it transitions from neutral to negatively tilted. Water vapor satellite is showing a baroclinic leaf reaching into the northern plains, and resulting in widespread light to moderate rain and snow. To the south, strong convection is seen along the boundary extending into TX. Ample moisture existing over much of the central US is leading this widespread activity, with deep Gulf moisture advection and mid to upper level Pacific moisture. Closer to northern MI, a 1038 mb surface high resides over the southern end of the Hudson Bay. Generally east winds are seen over northern MI this morning, and with this nocturnal surge of the surface high, surface temperatures are dipping into the mid to high 20s. With a roughly 5 mb pressure gradient at the surface across the L.P., surface winds should remain elevated through the early morning hours. This and increasing cloud cover will keep morning low temperatures from cooling too much more (maybe a couple of degrees).

As the upper trough continues into the central plains this morning, it will become negatively tilted and deepen. A quasi-meridional jet streak will become defined, reaching from the central plains towards the northern plains/western Great Lakes. This jet will carry the embedded cyclone northward, which will also bring the warm Gulf moisture airmass up the Ohio River valley towards MI. Isentropic ascent/overrunning will generate widespread light precip, with embedded moderate precip along an elevated boundary. This precipitation will reach Manistee just before sunrise this morning, reaching M-32 around mid morning, and the bridge by late morning. Surface temperatures will still be below freezing for interior locations of northern lower and all of eastern upper during the onset of precipitation this morning. The 00Z KAPX RAOB shows very dry air in the lower levels, which will take a little moisture to overcome but could also cool the warm nose a bit.. leading to times of snow/sleet especially for areas north of M-32. Elsewhere, freezing rain will be seen. Near freezing road temperatures for interior locations lead to concerns with slick roads during this mornings commute.

As the elevated boundary brings more moderate precip to northern lower mid morning, surface temperatures could still be right around freeze or a degree below over the higher hills and parts NE lower. Although the rain will be rather warm by this point (thanks to fairly robust elevated WAA), a strengthening surface pressure gradient will lead to strong east winds (gusts up to 35 mph possible) which will reinforce the cooler air for the interior hills of northern lower and parts of NE lower. Now, these temperatures remain right around 30F-31F and will have more warming to battle towards the late morning and mid day hours. Around a tenth to 2 tenths of an inch of ice remains likely in these areas, and with the stronger east winds, will likely accumulate on elevated surfaces. While this isn't enough flat ice to result in damaging sturdy trees and electrical poles, stronger winds could exacerbate impacts. Due to this, and low chances for locally higher amounts near a quarter of an inch of ice, localized power outages remain a possibility.

By midday/early afternoon, a strong southwesterly LLJ will be present over northern lower. Although the surface warm front remains over southern MI, surface temperatuers will have warmed to above freezing by now. Some elevated instability will be present, however widespread rain will lighten up with chances for an embedded lightning strike or two south of M-32. Near and north of the straights, a better defined 0C 850 line will linger above. Precipitation that was mostly in the form of light sleet/snow will transition to freezing rain, as surface temperatures will likely remain just below freezing through the afternoon hours. The more moderate precipitation will be during this time, and could result in ice amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch by the time temperatures warm above freezing (evening hours). These ice amounts and gusty winds could result in some local impacts, including power outages or even ice accumulation on the bridge itself. With warming temperatures, ice impacts should overall be short lived and limited across northern MI.

By the evening hours, the cyclone will reach northern WI. A strong southwesterly LLJ will continue to exist in the WAA over northern lower, reaching into eastern upper into the night time hours. Ample elevated instability (500 to 1k j/kg) and shear (+30kts Bulk Shear) exist, generating an environment capable of producing storms late this evening and tonight. By this time, some drier air will have worked its way overhead, resulting in 6-7 C/km mid level lapse rates. A few rounds of showers and storms will be seen during this time, with the primary hazards being lighting and brief heavy rain (storms will be moving fairly fast). A few of the stronger storms could be capable of producing larger hail and damaging wind gusts, with the more likely scenario being stronger storms from the SW part of the state reach counties along M-55.

The surface cyclone will move over northern MI, and exit into Ontario CAN early Friday morning. This is a case where high temperatures for today will likely be reached at midnight.

A brief shot of cooler air Friday, before the next system moves in late Friday into early Saturday. A deeper upper closed low will tack across the northern plains, returning the WAA rather quickly. Early morning low temperatures will likely fall below freezing Saturday morning, and depending on the onset of precipitation, areas along and north of M-32 could see freezing rain return. However, as of now temperatures at the surface look to warm fairly quickly later Saturday morning (especially south of the bridge). Best chances for accumulating ice per the LREF remain north of the bridge, as sub freezing temperatures could linger into the day Saturday. The majority of the LREF keep accumulations under 2 tenths of an inch, however some outliers for greater do exist. Rain will be seen elsewhere, with chances for thunder. Colder air descends on northern MI behind this system for Sunday into early next week. Snow chances are hinted at during this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Wintry mix invades this morning. PL/maybe SN will turn to FZRAPL, FZRA, and RA. Cigs and vsbys will lower to IFR and LIFR later this afternoon and thru tonight. SHRA/TSRA will become common this evening. Precip diminishes late tonight.

East winds will be gusty today.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-023-024. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ020-025-026-032>036-041-042. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ021- 022-027>030-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.