textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and wet through the weekend, with times of heavy rain that could result in localized flooding concerns

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late Friday into early Saturday

- Above normal temperatures early next week, then mid week system will return wintry conditions

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Currently satellite and radar depict patches of light rain near and south of M-72. A deck of low stratus here continues to creep northward today. Although its battling the mixing due to sunshine to the north, low clouds will eventually cover all of northern MI this evening and tonight. Light rain and areas of fog will move in under this tonight and linger into Friday morning as winds turn southeast to south. Times of moderate to heavy rain will begin midday Friday and linger through Saturday as a surface cyclone approaches and tracks through the state Saturday. Chances for thunderstorms exist for late Friday into Saturday morning. A quick cold front will move through, then southwest winds return Sunday as another system tracks to the north (in southern CAN), brining slight chances for light precip back to eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt. Southwest winds will continue into Monday as the storm track over southern CAN remains active. Warm temperatures will be seen Monday (as much as 20 to 30 degrees above normal).

Winds turn northeast behind a back door cold front sometime Tuesday, with chances for rain/snow during the day before becoming all snow midweek (possibly Wednesday). Colder temperatures will likely linger through the remainder of the work week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Heavy rain on snow: Deep moisture will be moving over MI within the warm sector Friday and Saturday, with PWATs as high as 1.30" late Friday into Saturday. The right entrance region of an upper jet will also be present over northern MI during this time, as well as isentropic ascent. Enough lift and moisture will be seen over northern MI for widespread light to moderate rain starting Friday PM and lasting through Saturday AM. Sounding traces depict deep moisture, indicative of heavy rain potential with embedded convection.. in which there will be around 200 to 700 j/kg of elevated instability, peaking during the night time hours. Around 30 to 40 kts of sfc to 3km shear exists as well with the stronger winds aloft. So with this potential for embedded convection, heavy precipitation is very likely to fall. These cells will be moving, however there could be some training that occurs. With a current snowpack of around 5 to 15 inches this points to a risk of flooding in low spots and along area rivers. The most likely traces of the HEFS (25th to 75th percentiles) places the Manistee, Boardman, and Au Sable rivers in action stage; with the Manistee's most likely traces even creeping into Minor flood stage. This highlights the better chances for higher precip amounts over NW lower, however localized higher amounts (due to unresolved training) could result in those localized flooding issues along other rivers and low spots (not just NW lower).

Expected Rain Amounts - Local amounts up to +1.50" NW lower: 0.5" to 1.0" NE lower: 0.25" to 0.6" Eastern Upper: 0.50 to 0.90"

Thunderstorms: With the aforementioned elevated instability and shear, there are also marginal risks for severe winds and hail with the embedded thunderstorms late Friday into early Saturday. With the deep moisture, sounding traces do favor more heavy rain vs the potential for large hail.. but some soundings do show the elevated instability right in the sweet spot of the HGZ (hail growth zone). The stronger shear will be able to keep those hydrometeors lofted, meaning a storm or two could see the low end of severe hail (up to 1 inch). A strong warm nose will be present, and should help to keep damaging winds out of most storms.. But a storm or two could see those damaging winds reach the surface. With the stronger shear (sfc - 1km is up to 35kts), non zero chances exist for tornados as well. This chances of this threat remain low due to the very poor near surface lapse rates with the warm nose present. However storms with a tor or two could originate over SW MI and move into the far SW parts of the CWA. The most frequent threat with storms will be the heavy rain, talked about above.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 634 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Lower cigs and spotty light showers are expanding northward from central lower MI. Though rain will not become widespread until late Friday, the lower clouds will arrive much sooner. MBL is already MVFR, and the other sites will become so tonight. IFR cigs at all sites but TVC (which approaches IFR) on Friday, as more humid air invades. Best chances for thunderstorms and heavier rain will be Fri night.

Se to s breezes develop Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.