textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to perhaps moderate snow accums today/tonight in parts of nw and far northern lower MI.

- Potentially dangerous cold outbreak Thursday night into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 258 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

A weak surface low crosses lower MI today, just ahead of a shortwave trof moving thru the broader upper trof over eastern NA. A swath of increasing synoptic moisture is evident on satellite/radar over WI/MI. Wsw-flow lake enhancement has developed over far northern lower MI (Emmet/Charlevoix Cos and environs).

Absolute moisture remains low given the chilly airmass, but those values are higher further south in the state where warm advection will be a bit deeper/more effective. The swath of better synoptic snow scrapes by the southern edge of this forecast area. Our main concern is and will be lake enhancement in sw/wsw flow off of Lake MI. The lake enhanced area, and the synoptic snow area, overlap in Manistee Co. An advisory is already up there, and only there. That seems pretty reasonable, with a long strip of slightly smaller accums along the entire nw lower MI coastline, up into Drummond Isl. 1-3" for the overnight/morning in the above area, with Manistee Co at around 3".

A sharper upper trof slides across the area this evening, along with a surface cold front, and a wind shift to a wnw fetch. Moisture availability so quick behind the early today system is quite poor, but another very quick shot of ok lake enhancement is progged near and west of a Lake City-Cheboygan line this evening. Have a general 1-3" late this afternoon into tonight in nw and far n central lower MI, and far nw Chippewa Co, with the highest in far northern lower MI. Consideration was given to issuing an advisory for Charlevoix/ Emmet/Cheboygan Cos, either just for this evening, or alternatively for right now thru this evening (even with a lull for part of the afternoon). Decided to hold off for now; period of better snow this evening does not have a lot of wind (winds pick up overnight).

Transition to pure wnw-flow lake effect overnight, as 850mb temps tumble back toward -20C. This will be unimpressive in northern lower MI, with a shorter fetch and drier air inbound. A better band will likely be sustained into nw Chippewa Co (accums up to 2" Paradise and north.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 258 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Cold closed low (500mb heights to near 495dm) will rotate across northern Ontario late this week, then eject toward the Gulf of St Lawrence by Saturday. Another shortwave trof perhaps slips in from the w or nw by Sunday or more likely Monday, though model differences are increasing quite a bit by then (with the ECMWF looking more amplified then some other solutions).

Lake effect snow coverage will be respectable Thursday into Friday morning, with all the instability we could ever want. But as 850mb temps tumble well past -20C, a usable DGZ will be increasingly difficult to find. Have reduced snow-liquid ratios Thursday and beyond into the low-mid teens. That help keeps northern lower MI snow amounts in the up to 2" range Thu-Thu night combined, with perhaps some 3"s. Chippewa Co should do better, 2-6" north of M-28, with the highest amounts in nw Chip.

The biggest and well-advertised primary impact is the incoming Arctic blast, and the coldest air of the winter thus far. 850mb temps will be close to -30C by Friday morning. Surface temps will be steadyish in the teens Thursday, then plunge below zero across northern MI by daybreak Friday. Daytime highs Friday near 0f to the single digits above, and widespread sub-zero readings again that night. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s below zero from late Thu night into Sat morning. A high impact cold outbreak continues to be expected.

Slow moderation in temps is progged late in the weekend into early next week, though how long that lasts is uncertain. Temps remain well below normal even with this moderation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 633 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

IFR conditions in light snow showers thru midday at PLN/TVC/MBL. Then after a short lull, IFR conditions possible again this evening at PLN/TVC. Otherwise a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions. Lighter winds today, with a westerly breeze increasing tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ031. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.