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KEY MESSAGES

-High pressure continues sunny and dry weather through Tuesday.

-Scattered shower/storm chances return to the midwest beyond the midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Midlevel troughing with its axis cutting through the Ohio Valley this morning will keep a cooler, Canadian air mass influence across the Great Lakes Region. Surface low pressure will move to the northeast this morning and take rainfall with it. No impactful weather is expected through the majority of the forecast period as surface high pressure begins to build due to upstream 500mb ridging pattern building across the central U.S. through Wednesday.

Another trough currently over the Alberta/British Columbia region will progress toward Hudson Bay this Wednesday. Waves of energy will pivot across the CWA for the remainder of the forecast period. While the majority of the timeframe is expected to have typical summertime weather with sunny skies and highs near normal for early August. Enough instability from these waves will keep chances of convection and precipitation in the forecast at times through the remainder of the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Heights begin to rise this morning as upstream subsidence dries out profiles aloft. Some low-level moisture will produce some showers in a few localized areas this morning, especially northeast northern lower, but areas that do observe rain can only expect a general trace to a few hundredths. Expect sky cover to clear today with post- frontal northwest winds to create climatologically cool temperatures. Surface high pressure upstream ridging extending through the Midwest will slowly build temperatures back to normal on Tuesday with highs in the low 80s.

The next midlevel shortwave moves east and develops closed low pressure over Hudson Bay and begins to pivot waves of energy beyond Wednesday. Guidance depicts a disheveled frontal boundary to sweep across the CWA, with the highest probabilities of QPF remaining at or below a quarter inch. The remainder of the week will look similar to Wednesday's outlook with periodic precipitation and convection chances at times, but the majority of the week will remain partly sunny with highs in the 80s. No strong storms or widespread heavy rainfall is expected at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Patches of MVFR or IFR CIGs and VSBYs, along with spotty showers will quickly burn off across the northern Michigan terminal area this morning. Once this occurs, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the 12Z TAF valid time. Gusty northeast winds are possible late this morning into this afternoon, but will diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area, along with the end of diurnal effects.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-344>346.