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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances and breezy conditions move into northern Michigan later Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Mainly dry weather expected during the second half of this week, potentially extending into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging encompassing the Midwest and Great Lakes will begin to fold over far southeast Canada and New England through the first half of this week, building surface high pressure across these areas as well. Strong shortwave troughing will then punch across the region in the early Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Ample forcing aloft will deepen the associated surface cyclone as it treks across southern Canada, eventually working over Hudson Bay by Wednesday and across Quebec Thursday. The attendant cold front stretching back southwest looks to swing across the Great Lakes late Wednesday. Ridging is then expected to slide overhead late this week, temporarily building high pressure in through Friday before additional troughing slides overhead next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Pleasant weather will remain this afternoon and tonight to round out the holiday weekend. Temperatures may climb a few more degrees into the upper 70s/low 80s for places underneath mostly sunny skies before cooling back into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight.

The primary focus of the forecast period will be on the return of rain chances and breezy conditions Tuesday through the middle of the week. Rain-free weather will likely continue for most areas through Tuesday morning before chances increase from the west during the afternoon. A dry low-level airmass in place ahead of the aforementioned front may make it difficult for initial light rain to reach the ground through the afternoon. However, at least some light rain will be possible across northern Michigan during the afternoon/evening.

Best chances/coverage of rain is expected late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning as the profile becomes increasingly saturated as the front works closer. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible during this time, but nearly moist adiabatic profiles evident in forecast soundings with very little buoyancy extending past -10C will keep thunderstorm chances low overall. Winds will also increase Tuesday night into Wednesday out of the southwest ahead of the front, likely gusting to 25-40 mph through the afternoon. Winds and rain chances will taper Wednesday evening after the front swings through.

Cooler temperatures will lie in the wake of this system Thursday with afternoon temperatures looking to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s. Dry weather is anticipated through the second half of the week before at least some low-end chances return this upcoming weekend. That said, current thought is that the weekend appears more dry than wet, potentially bringing a more substantial stretch of largely rain- free weather across the area into the following week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Skies remain mostly clear this evening followed by widespread stratus building and lowering overnight. Patchy BR remains possible tonight (mainly at KCIU and KPLN), though confidence of VSBYs dropping below VFR remains low. Approaching -RA and VCTS will continue to lower ceilings Tuesday afternoon, but will likely not be observed until after 18z Tuesday. Winds veer south overnight and build Wednesday afternoon with gusts in the upper teen to low 20s.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.