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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy/windy this weekend with the start of a warming trend.

- Calmer conditions for Monday as the mild stretch continues into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Full-latitude long wave trough encompasses the eastern half of North America to start the weekend...bit of a split in the trough with energy in the southern end expected to cause mischief along the eastern seaboard over the coming days. A broad ridge (+2 sigma 500mb height anomaly) across the Great Basin/Rockies and extending north into the Canadian Territories. What had earlier this week been an amplified pattern across the Pacific basin... anchored by upper lows over the Aleutians and north of Japan...is flattening/becoming more zonal with a strong Pacific jet keeping things progressive across North America. Trough axis now east of the upper Lakes so stronger north/northwest flow settling in aloft. Low level thermal trough runs northeast-southwest from northeast Ontario/Quebec across Michigan and into the mid Mississippi Valley; -4C 850mb temperatures off the 0000Z APX/GRB soundings allowing for north flow lake-induced cloud streets off the surrounding Lakes along with some spotty showers (Inversion ~800mb/-7C at APX). Low-mid level warm air advection already occurring across the upper Midwest/Manitoba/northern Ontario which is spreading an As deck toward Lake Superior. 0400Z surface analysis shows a 1039mb high centered over the central/southern Plains with impressive ridging for mid October extending all the way into northeast Mexico (+4 to +5 sigma MSLP anomaly). Surface ridge axis extends northeast from the High into the upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes with increasing anticyclonic flow.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Breezy/windy this weekend with the start of a warming trend: Another round of the "Gales of October" setting up for the weekend...as surface ridge axis shifts south and the pressure gradient ramps up again...this time with a southwesterly wind component. Unlike on Friday...warm advection will suppress mixed layer depths so downward momentum transfer will be less efficient. For today...strongest wind gusts expected north of a line from FKS-PZQ with gusts upwards of 30mph. Gusts to 35mph possible along the Lake Michigan shoreline areas north of the Leelanau Peninsula...and along the south shore of the Upper Peninsula. Winds will remain gusty tonight due to turbulent mixing...with overnight temperatures probably becoming steady or rising a bit. Gradient tightens up even more Sunday with a cold front approaching the Lake Superior basin (which eventually gets strung out before reaching Upper Michigan). Though mixing heights will be even shallower Sunday there is more momentum available...thus more 25-35mph wind gusts across northern Lower Michigan (gusts to 40mph near Lake Michigan)....and 30-40mph gusts across eastern Upper. Have re-jiggered marine headlines between outgoing and incoming headlines. Have opted to go with a Small Craft Advisory/Gale Watch combination for the Lake Michigan zones from Point Betsie north...as well as through the Straits and the Straits to False Detour Lake Huron zone. Despite Gale Warnings already being up for the open Lake Michigan waters for Sunday...would rather deal with the two periods of small craft conditions at the onset and separate out the gales which will be more prevalent Sunday.

Expect temperatures to return to near normal for this afternoon (widespread 50s). Sunday highs would have a lot of potential if we could tap into 850mb temperatures at or above 12C...but mixing depth too shallow for that (and that lack of mixing is why 850mb temperatures are so warm). Expecting more highs in the 60s across northern Lower...and from 55 to 60 above the Bridge.

Calmer conditions for Monday as the mild stretch continues into next week: Developing east coast system will bottle up the pattern for the start of next week...but the big news for Monday will be less wind as high pressure establishes itself across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above normal heading into the week with minimal spread in temperature forecasts. Highs in the 60s are expected through the work week...with parts of northern Lower flirting with 70-75 degree highs from Tuesday through Friday. The threat for rain next week looks minimal at this point...and the 6 to 10 day forecast valid from Thursday through Sunday continues high probabilities (70 to 80 percent) of above normal temperatures (and below normal precipitation). Not the best news for burgeoning drought conditions across eastern Upper (Severe Drought per latest Drought Monitor).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR flight conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The main concern will be gusty southwest winds developing later this morning and into the afternoon. Strongest gusts expected at KCIU/KPLN with gusts to 30kts. Gusts will diminish in magnitude this evening but not expected to be entirely eliminated due to turbulent mixing.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345-346. Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for LHZ345- 346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344-345. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.