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KEY MESSAGES

- High impact lake effect snow and strong wind event will unfold across northern Michigan this evening into Friday. Event snowfall totals of 6-12", localized 18-24", and wind gusts of 35-50+ mph are expected.

- Additional accumulating snow later Saturday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 412 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive mid/upper low sitting directly over the Great Lakes will churn northeast tonight into Thanksgiving morning as the associated cyclone follows suit, becoming increasingly vertically stacked with time. The secondary front will swing across northern Michigan later this evening as the cyclone works further away from the area, centering itself by James Bay by Friday.

Forecast Details:

A well-advertised high impact lake effect snow and strong wind event is set to unfold in the coming hours this evening, continuing across parts of the area into Friday. Here are the broken down details:

Timing:

After the front moves through this evening, the most widespread worst travel conditions will begin with the start of heavy lake effect snow and strong winds and continue tonight into Thursday morning. Strongest winds will lessen some Thursday during the day, and eventually subside Thursday night into Friday. Expected timing with lake effect snow has changed some compared to previous forecast. While expectation remains that chances will continue through Friday, organized heavy lake effect snow bands are expected to materialize Thursday morning and settle in by Thursday afternoon, persisting into Thursday night across parts of northwest lower.

Hazard Details:

While snow showers have already begun, more widespread and heavy lake effect snow will blossom behind the front with strong over-lake instability and moisture flux owing to strong winds. This activity will become increasingly organized overnight and into Thursday morning and settle into multiple bands across the area as mentioned above -- continuing through Friday. Expected snowfall amounts continue to increase across the anticipated heaviest lake effect areas. While amounts by Thanksgiving morning largely remain unchanged -- a widespread 3-6" with locally higher possible for the warning areas -- confidence continues to grow in an impressive dominant lake effect band stretching from Antrim county southeast across the length of the CWA down to Saginaw Bay and beyond Thanksgiving day and Thanksgiving night. Highest totals from southern Antrim to western Crawford county may end up in the 18-24" range by the end of the event on Friday given 1-2" per hour snowfall rates or higher for an extended period of time during the holiday. Lesser but still impressive totals around 8-12" are anticipated across the surrounding northwest lake effect hot spots south of the bridge by Friday, and slightly lower totals across targeted eastern upper locations. Sharp gradients in amounts are anticipated by the lakeshores. Highest uncertainty in amounts remains on the southeast edge of expected lake effect bands. While bands will impact most of the CWA, and guidance is bullish on high totals extending far to the southeast counties, current confidence is that amounts will end up being lower than the typical big winners west of I-75.

Strong winds of 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 35-50+ mph are expected this evening into Thursday morning. Wind gusts will lessen some but remain strong on Thursday, reaching 30-40+ mph.

Impacts:

A somewhat bifurcated focus of impacts for the event has materialized given the forecast scenario. As mentioned, initial slug of widespread snow this evening and tonight will likely bring the largest spatial area of potentially dangerous travel given the overlap of heavy snow and strongest winds -- and of important note, snow falling in the presence of strongest winds. Whiteouts will be expected at times, especially across exposed roadways that are oriented north-south. Traveling lake effect snow bands late tonight and early Thanksgiving morning may cause particularly difficult travel conditions due to rapidly changing visibility.

As bands become more organized and winds lessen some on Thursday, worst impacts are expected to become more localized -- but still may end up being the most impactful portion of the holiday evening. Impressive lake effect bands will stretch across highly traveled roads, including I-75 and US-131. Near-zero visibility under heavy bands will likely lead to rapid changes in travel conditions and potential dangerous travel. Significant travel impacts on I-75 may extend as far south as Roscommon and West Branch and span north up to around exit 270 at Waters. Additional significant impacts are still possible with lake effect north of here. The US-131 corridor between Elmira and Fife Lake is also of particular concern Thanksgiving day.

As far as winds, downed limbs and trees are possible and may lead to localized power outages.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 412 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Longwave troughing and associated surface cyclone will continue to pull away from the Great Lakes Friday night as lake effect snow chances wind down for the last impacted areas of northern Michigan. A brief break in snow chances is anticipated to start Saturday before the next round looks to move in during the Saturday evening/Saturday night timeframe. Ridging sliding over the region will push east as a second strong trough digs across the central CONUS, punching over the Great Lakes and supporting a cyclone that looks to trek across the state through Sunday. Accumulating snow is appearing increasingly likely Sunday into early next week with additional lake effect snow on the backside of the departing cyclone, potentially impacting remaining travel late in the holiday weekend across Michigan.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Very wintry thru the TAF period. More widespread snow will eventually give way to lake effect snow showers on Thursday. IFR conditions will be most prevalent thru the TAF at TVC. CIU/PLN will be IFR at times. MBL/APN will be most commonly MVFR.

W to NW winds will gust to 35-45kt, diminishing Thursday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095>099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018- 024-029. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025- 031. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ021>023-027- 028-033>035-086-087-095-096-099. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ026-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ088. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344. Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ345-346. Gale Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ345- 346. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.