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KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered shower/storm chances thru early this evening, marginal severe risk southeast.

- Increasing shower/storm chances this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Upper ridge currently extending through the Northern Plains with downstream west/northwest flow aloft across the Great Lakes. The primary instability axis remains well to our south associated with a quasi-stationary boundary, with a weaker secondary instability axis further north from Saginaw Bay westward into southern parts of our CWA. The upper ridge will gradually shift east into this weekend, flattening out with time as northern stream shortwave energy rides over the top.

Expect at least a few (scattered?) showers/storms into early this evening, with inland penetrating lake breeze boundaries and a diffuse surface trough axis providing the primary focus for storms. Some storm organization is possible given favorable 0-6km bulk shear. 1000-850mb low level convergence signals target areas east of I-75 and south of M-32, with the best parameters for severe storms closer to Saginaw Bay where deeper moisture and instability reside. The main storm threat would be wind and possibly larger hail. This activity should dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Patchy fog once again tonight.

Fairly benign weather Thursday and Friday with increasing influence of somewhat drier and more stable air, as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This high slips east of the Great Lakes over the weekend, creating a more moisture rich environment with developing return flow. This will allow a stronger shortwave and associated surface low to push into the Great Lakes, resulting in better shower/storm chances. Recent model runs have slowed a bit, now pushing the best precipitation chances toward Saturday night and possibly the first part of Sunday. Locally heavy rain a possibility, with a surge of 2"+ PWATs into the Great Lakes. Temperatures running close to normal for the weekend into the first part of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1103 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Weak/calm winds and clear skies aside from lingering wildfire smoke aloft will foster efficient radiational cooling, leading to patchy FG/BR development across northern Michigan overnight. MBL is the most likely TAF site to be impacted and could see IFR/LIFR VSBYs into early Thursday morning. Less certainty exists for other northern Michigan TAF sites. Any FG/BR development is expected to quickly dissipate Thursday morning, leaving VFR conditions through the remainder of the issuance period. Winds will increase out of the northwest to 5-10 kts through the morning with lake breeze formation likely pushing inland from the Lake Huron shoreline in the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.