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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances continue today, along with elevated fire danger due to breezy to windy conditions.

- Increasing chance for rain/showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. - Below normal temps most afternoons through mid next week, with frost/freeze concerns overnight. Warming temps thereafter.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Omnipotent upper trough continues to spin around Ontario, with influence continuing across the Great Lakes Region. Deep, coagulated, energy on the southern end of the troughing will move southeast through the day today across the northern Great Lakes Region, spinning up a sfc cyclone across Lake Superior. Modest, but not anomalous, moisture will advect into northern MI ahead of this sfc cyclone and an associated frontal boundary. Consequently, showers will be possible through the day today. Timing and placement of moisture and the frontal boundary is pretty poor for thunderstorm development and any enhanced rains, but convective showers certainly possible. Not expecting a whole lot of rain with this, local smatterings of lighter rain totals, which makes sense given the drier low level profiles (and thus fire weather concerns). However, with sub 1000 mb low to our north, pressure gradient will increase with breezy to low end windy conditions possible through the day (gusts 20 to 35 mph possible). Wind shift during the afternoon and evening hours will usher in the cooler temperatures, shifting southwest winds to northwest, and thus capping our daytime high temps in the 50s and 60s, highest across northeast lower MI. Elevated fire weather will once again be a concern today with lower relative humidity and the increase in winds.

Another piece of energy digs south and swings on through northern MI on Sunday, keeping the cool conditions behind the aforementioned frontal boundary on Saturday locked in place. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers are expected as cool temperatures aloft and subsequent steep 0-3 km level lapse rates and enough boundary layer moisture aid in diurnal convective shower development. This will be especially true across northeast lower MI up into southeastern portions of Mackinac county.

Next system to continue to monitor will be for Tuesday as a vigorous piece of energy dives southeast overtop of a building ridge across the Intermountain West. This feature will dig southeast across the Upper Midwest and eventually Great Lakes, with a slug of modest layer moisture. How far north/south this feature lifts/digs will determine how much precipitation for northern MI, with the potential for ~0.25-0.50" of rain within the most persistent precipitation. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has shifted more northward, resulting in a much better chance for precipitation across northern MI. Will fine tune this rain potential in the coming days. Showers likely linger into Wednesday as well along with the cooler, below normal temperatures.

Height rises through the end of the week and beyond thanks to expansive ridging across the Western and Central CONUS should lead to a steady warning trend late next week and beyond. Consequently, CPC's 8 to 14 day outlook (May 16-22) shows northern MI solidly in the above normal temperature probabilities. For reference, normal high temps for that time frame are ~mid to upper 60s. Thus, warmer conditions are on the way.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions with southwest winds of 5 to 10 with gusts up to 15 to 20kts as a FROPA moves through the area this afternoon. ISO -SHRA results in a few terminals (KAPN) seeing VCSH through the afternoon. Low chances for degraded conditions under the showers. Winds turn northwest behind FROPA, diminishing after 02z. Non-zero chances for BR/FG near KCIU after 06z. Northwest winds with G15 to 20kts after 16z. ISO -SHRA returns near the end of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ016-017- 021>023-027>029-032>035-041-099. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ018-020- 024>026-030-031-036-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.