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KEY MESSAGES

- Snow chances continue at times through the weekend.

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning.

- A medium potential (~40-70%) exists for at least 4" of snow later Monday into Tuesday for locations adjacent to the Lake MI shoreline.

- Watching potential for more impactful snow toward the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad troughing remains situated over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with continued lake effect snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan/Superior. Upstream, an embedded mid-level impulse is trekking across the Dakotas, which will become the focus for additional widespread light snow across northern lower Michigan late tonight into Sunday. By late in the day Sunday, ~1032mb high pressure begins to press in the from the west setting the stage for a very cold Sunday night/Monday morning.

Forecast Details: Mainly light to locally moderate lake effect snow showers continue across northern lower this afternoon with localized additional accumulation of up to a half inch or so across northwest lower and the tip of the mitt. Farther north across northern Chippewa County, better banding has been in and out of the area for much of the day -- and remains the area where a localized additional inch or two remains possible through this evening, especially from near Paradise to the Soo.

By this evening, aforementioned embedded shortwave expected to be upstream with its sights set on southern MI for late tonight into Sunday morning. Latest trends still favor a general 1-3" of light/fluffy snow, mainly south of a line from Petoskey to Rogers City, before this system exits from west to east mid-Sunday morning through midday. Some localized 1-3" amounts also possible near Whitefish Pt as lake effect continues to percolate off of Lake Superior. As noted by the previous forecast, light winds through much of the event should yield land breeze processes and potential for convergent snow bands/meso vortex generation. Expectation remains for these features to stay offshore, but will probably wind up being a nowcast thing to monitor their movement for any potentially locally heavier snows near the lakeshores.

Some scattered lake induced snow showers remain possible through Sunday afternoon/early evening -- most numerously across parts of Chippewa County and northwest lower. High pressure slides overhead Sunday night/early Monday morning with a cold night anticipated. Widespread single digits are expected across northern MI with portions of the interior seeing values drop below zero, especially where clear skies materialize given a fresh addition to the snow pack.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Day 3-4 (Monday - Tuesday ): By late Monday/Monday night, next embedded shortwave expected to be digging across the upper MS Valley. Attendant sfc low pressure development expected in the vicinity of this feature with flow becoming south-southwesterly locally. Increasing confidence in a fairly decent SSW flow lake effect/enhanced event, perhaps starting as early as Monday afternoon for portions of the eastern U.P. and into Monday night/Tuesday morning for northwest lower. Outside of SSW flow snow belts, most numerous snow showers expected during the day Tuesday as the mid- level wave slides overhead. Latest ensemble probabilities hint at 40- 70% chances of at least 4" across portions of the eastern U.P., Beaver Island, and far northwest lower during this time frame. Certainly a time frame worth monitoring over the next couple of days.

Day 5-7 (Wednesday - Friday): Hot on the heels of Monday night/Tuesday's system, another more potent wave is expected to dig across the upper MS valley and western Great Lakes Tuesday night/Wednesday. Associated sfc low pressure progged to track across the Upper Midwest and into southern MI. While it appears to be a quick-mover, several inches of snow look possible -- although confidence is generally low on where the swath of heaviest snow will fall.

Beyond Wednesday, the seemingly endless parade of clippers still doesn't really have an end in sight with additional waves and renewed snow chances returning Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

CIGs continue to lift this afternoon while winds generally weaken, keeping VFR condtions through the evening hours. SCT and BKN MVFR Cu returns to KMBL and KTVC after 0600Z as -SN tracks across the region. Breezy NW winds build Sunday afternoon, delivering -SHSN to all sites besides KAPN and continue beyond the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.