textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Shower/storm chances continue at various times through Friday night. Locally heavy rain and a stronger storm or two possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for the overnight/early morning hours. Several areas of convection noted upstream, particularly, over S. central WI and a decaying convective system over the Arrowhead of MN, with another over NW/N. Central MN in its wake...and bit of discrete action over central MN that is waning as of 3z...and just starting to see some convective activity developing over northern/central WI. General pattern suggests the upstream pattern will generally propagate eastward toward northern Lower MI...but could/should trend toward the southeast with time -- currently progged to arrive between 9-12z. Our area remains in the col/deformation region attm, suggesting potential fgen concerns that could boost rainfall totals overnight (and air mass remains very moist...0z sounding had pwat of 1.56in with K index of 30 and freezing levels are still over 3km)...and do wonder about training convection as well, with that boundary still more or less zonal. Latest SPC update did pull the marginal back to the south a smidgen (though still covering most of Manistee and Wexford counties) with the expectation this will be close enough to the path of whatever MCS congeals upstream, and subsequent wind concerns...but this area may end up becoming more problematic from a hydro standpoint if another round of heavy rain rolls through there. Other possible concern is the upstream activity and attendant pressure perturbations resulting in some water level fluctuations in the St. Mary's River system...and will be keeping an eye on this, too.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing progressing over the eastern Great Lakes and southeast Canada will continue to slowly trek east this afternoon through Friday. The associated ~1008 mb surface low pressure centered over western Quebec will also weaken and follow suit to the east through this time. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify across the middle of the country late this week and hold through the holiday weekend, building surface high pressure across Hudson Bay/Ontario that will nose down into the Great Lakes by Saturday/ Sunday. Ridging may finally begin to fold overtop of the Great Lakes region heading into the middle of next week as troughing works across the west from the Pacific coast.

Forecast Details: Showers/storms continue to percolate across southern reaches of the forecast area into mid-Michigan early this afternoon. Not a ton of change to this through early evening with the highest PoPs focused near and south of M-72. While severe weather doesn't appear to be a glaring threat, suppose there's enough support there for a low chance of a stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds -- lining up well with SPC's latest D1 outlook. Primary concern continues to be locally heavy rainfall. Areas that received 1-3.5"+ of rain over the last several hours (far southwestern portions of the CWA) will be most susceptible to potential localized flooding concerns with any additional locally heavy downpours.

Expecting a break in shower/storm coverage mid-late evening, but latest trends showing increased support for additional upstream showers/storms to make inroads across parts of northern Michigan tonight into Friday morning. While lots of uncertainty riddles this time frame (partially hinging on how this afternoon/evening shake out across the broader region), think that if precip is able to survive into northern Michigan later tonight that'll it'll be primary a locally heavy rain threat rather than a severe weather threat. Probabilities for 1"+ of rain have increased over the last several forecast cycles with even some low probabilities for 2"+ noted (these higher end chances maximized south of APX's CWA).

While some shower/storm chances will linger Friday into Friday evening, a general drying trend is anticipated heading into the holiday weekend. Mostly sunny skies and largely precip-free conditions anticipated Saturday - Monday with daily high temperatures near to several degrees above early September normals. Chances for a return to more active conditions look to hold off until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

No precip out there presently, but some patchy stratus is bringing borderline MVFR/IFR cigs to nw lower MI, including TVC. MBL has also fogged in. Chance for showers/TSRA will increase again tonight, especially late, and especially for TVC/MBL. These sites have VCTS or TSRA mentioned for a few hours, though this should at least stir up the fog at MBL before daybreak. TVC/MBL should all have periods of MVFR to perhaps cigs overnight into part of Friday. Light winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.