textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze concerns continue through tonight.

- Isolated to scattered shower chances through the end of the week.

- Additional rain chances through the early portions of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Deep, anomalous trough remains across southern portions of Canada, extending south into the Great Lakes region. Cooler temperatures aloft remain overhead, and consequently, steeper lapse rates and non zero convective instability expected during the midday to afternoon hours. Thus, diurnal low topped showers are expected, best potential being across the eastern UP, and secondarily, northeast lower, likely due to aided lake breeze convergence. Vigorous short wave moves southeast through the day, resulting in isolated to scattered shower coverage into the evening and overnight hours as well. This could damper the freeze concerns to some degree later tonight. Another short wave moves through during the day on Friday with continued steep lapse rates and thus, a few additional showers possible.

A more robust weather feature will impact northern MI on Saturday. Vigorous trough digs deep across southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes, with subsequent low pressure system and frontal boundary moving through northern MI. Thus, more showery precipitation is expected, a few thunderstorms, and breezy conditions. Temps likely rise to near 60, probably the warmest day out of the next 5 or more.

Sfc high pressure builds in after the low pressure system and frontal boundary on Saturday, resulting in mostly dry conditions early next week. Prior to that, energy diving south will keep the threat for showers in the forecast for some on Sunday. Next piece of energy to watch will be moving southeast across the Upper Midwest ~Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact location of this feature is in question, and will drive precipitation placement across MI. Current LREF probs show a low to medium chance for >0.1" of rain with this system, but there is a chance for much of the rain to shift south of northern Michigan as well (highest probs are in fact south of M-55). We'll keep an eye on this moving forward. Through much of the next week, temperatures will be seasonably cool, as normal hi temps are in the mid 60s most areas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

No changes from earlier thinking with VFR conditions to continue under passing mid level clouds and relatively higher based strato-cumulus/cumulus. May see a very light shower impact KCIU this afternoon under this elevated cu field. Light winds become a touch gusty out of the west at times on today...with winds becoming light again tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-098-099. MARINE...None.