textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Elevated fire weather danger today.

-Showers track across the northwoods this evening.

-Seasonably cool temperatures Tuesday through the rest of the week will consistently bring frost/freeze concerns across Northern Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A 500mb closed low pressure system remains over Hudson Bay with deep longwave troughing extending southward into the northeastern CONUS. Embedded shortwave ridging over the Great Lakes Region today will advect warm air from the southeast as H8 temperatures remain around 8-10C. Mixing down to the surface, adiabatic heating processes and a lack of atmospheric moisture will result in highs in the low/mid 70s today and critically low RH values.

Previously mentioned troughing with its axis extended through the Minnesota/Dakota region will develop surface low pressure and sweep a strong thermal gradient cold front across Northern Michigan. After showers depart the region overnight, the aforementioned trough axis will shift eastward and settle over the Great Lakes region. Cool cP air influence with 850mb temperatures below freezing will continue climatologically cool weather this Tuesday through the rest of the week. Daytime highs will remain in the 40s and 50s while overnight lows near freezing will continue Frost/Freeze concerns for vegetation.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire weather danger today... The aforementioned warm air advection associated with the shortwave ridge will begin to surge into the area today. Model soundings will begin to saturate from the top of the profile downward with very high dew point depressions at the surface, creating an inverted V profile. Low level jet development moves over Lake Michigan with 40kt winds by noon. Efficient daytime mixing will transport strong wind gusts to the surface along with further lowering dew points to the low 30s. Minimal RH values and winds will continue elevated Fire Weather wording along with wind gusts reaching 30 to 40mph this afternoon through 00Z Tuesday.

Showers and storms this evening...Strong surface low pressure to the Northwest with attached cold frontal boundary remains moisture starved even with strong southwest flow during the day. Midlevel lapse rates will provide enough instability to produce convective driven showers to sweep across the region. Showers will begin as early as this evening when saturation aloft finally overcomes dry surface conditions. Only QPF totals of 0.10 or less is expected across the CWA.

Seasonably cool weather with Frost/Freeze beyond Tuesday...The previously mentioned shortwave will progress southeast and position its axis over Northern Michigan as surface low pressure departs northeast. Cold cP surface air influence and sub-freezing H8 temperatures will then occupy the CWA this Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Even with high pressure and overall precipitation-free conditions this Tuesday through Thursday, adiabatic heating to the surface will result in highs in the upper 40s and 50s through Friday while overnight lows fall to the mid to low 30s. The biggest concern at this time remains the continuation of frost and freeze threatening sensitive vegetation during these early stages of the growing season. Lingering low-level moisture will keep some scattered showers in the forecast toward the end of the week as embedded weak energy waves track through the region, but little to no QPF is expected at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 606 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Any lingering patchy fog should burn off quickly this morning. Southwest winds ramp up this morning, gusting as high as 35-40 kts late morning through the afternoon, strongest at the northern lower MI terminals. Cold frontal boundary will reintroduce shower and thunderstorm chances, some of which could contain even locally higher gusts. This frontal boundary will pass through, turning winds N-NW later in the evening into the overnight hours.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349. Gale Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.