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KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow winds down tonight - Widespread snow with hazardous travel Saturday night and Sunday - More snow chances next week with below normal temperatures

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Our long duration and impressive lake effect event will wind down tonight as the deepest moisture gradually pulls east and we briefly bring low amplitude ridging into the area. As the gradient continues to relax, boundary layer winds will slowly back more westerly tonight, focusing the lake effect more toward the M-32 corridor in northern lower. Additional accumulations will be fairly minor (in relation to what has already occurred), with amounts in the 1-2" range as the winds back. With snow cover in many areas, lows dipping into the teens over interior areas (near single digits in a few areas possible).

Snow lovers rejoice, the next snow system over the central Plains will begin to push toward the southern lakes on Saturday. Clouds will thicken up throughout the day with isentropic upglide increasing mid to late afternoon and snow spreading into southwest parts of the area. Forecast soundings show a deep moisture profile with excellent forcing through the DGZ, making for an efficient snow producer.

Headlines: Canceled all the headlines associated with our current lake effect snow event and then issued a new advisory for all of northern Michigan for later Saturday into Sunday. See discussion below on a few areas that may push up close to warning criteria.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Low pressure moves quickly through the southern lakes Saturday night into Sunday producing a widespread swath of snow for all of northern Michigan. With PWAT's between 0.30" and 0.40" and consistent forcing throughout the period, this looks like a general 4-7" snow event for most areas. Going a little "old school", the heaviest snow will likely fall along and just north/northwest of the H8 low track, which places the heaviest snow across central/southern Michigan, possibly touching far southern parts of our CWA (M-55 corridor and south). The snow amounts will taper off toward the Tip of the Mitt into eastern upper, except for eastern parts of Mackinac/Chippewa Counties. Persistent southeast flow will likely provide a nice boost to snow totals from Cedarville to De Tour and Drummond Island. That southeast flow may also enhance snowfall totals in far northeast lower between Rogers City and Alpena. It is in these areas where storm totals may get close to warning criteria. The widespread snow will gradually wind down by Sunday afternoon with a transition to lake effect snow which will continue into Monday.

Beyond this, the pattern remains active with another system bringing more snow chances midweek. All in all, a very wintry pattern across northern Michigan.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

NW to WNW lake effect snow bands to continue through evening. Greatest impacts (visbys less than 2SM) for CIU, PLN, and possibly APN. Winds to largely diminish overnight; snow showers should diminish and shift more W/SW with time though some better bands could develop offshore, esp if flow goes light enough for offshore flow. Winds to turn SE around 12z as next system approaches from the Plains; incoming moisture (deck around 7-11kft) should boost lingering snow showers some toward early morning...with more widespread snow chances entering from SW to NE around late morning/midday...esp later in the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ016>018-022>024-029-030-036-086>088-095>099. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ020-021-025>028-031>035-041-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.