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KEY MESSAGES

-High pressure continues with quiet and warm weather this weekend through midweek next week. Near record high temperatures build this Tuesday.

-Shower and storm chances return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

The 500mb ridging pattern positioned over the Northern Plains will continue to amplify this weekend, resulting in progressively warming temperatures over the next several days for the Great Lakes Region. At the same time, the surface pattern depicts a stagnant front across the Ohio Valley and Central CONUS, keeping most precipitation to our south. Surface high pressure will persist this weekend over the CWA with highs continuing to climb into the mid/upper 80s for most locations and minimal chances of precipitation.

Warmest days will be early next week as the aforementioned ridge progresses downstream and positions its axis over the Canadian/American high plains. H8 temperatures over the Great Lakes Region are expected to climb into the low/mid 20s this Tuesday, likely leading to highs well into the 90s and potentially breaking 100 for southeastern parts of the CWA. The remainder of the forecast period remains relatively benign as the intense thermal ridge begins to break down over the northeastern U.S. and starts to have a more Canadian air influence into the Northwoods. Highs will return to the low to mid 80s with dry conditions the remainder of the week as high pressure remains centered west of the CWA. Only chance of synoptic-driven rainfall returns at the end/just beyond the forecast period as long-range guidance depicts a shortwave trough developing lee of the Canadian Rockies and progressing across the Great Lakes Region next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Today through Friday...The aforementioned thermal ridge will continue quiet and dry conditions this weekend. Subsidence aloft supports typical Northern Michigan weather with light winds and sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s this Saturday and Sunday with low RHs. Low dew points and clear skies will provide overnight relief from the heat as lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s/low 60s. Warmest days are expected to remain on Monday and Tuesday as the previously mentioned ridge axis shifts eastward over the High Plains. Westerly flow combined with highs surging into the 90s this Tuesday will cause the warmest parts of the CWA to remain the warmest likely resulting in a few locations reaching the low 100s.

Saturday and Sunday...Midlevel shortwave troughing deepens over the Canadian Rockies this Friday and proceeds to dig across the Great Lakes Region next weekend. Besides the one or two isolated chances of showers this week due to lake breeze processes, next weekend will be the next period of widespread observed showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to give details on potential impacts, but supported strong midlevel flow aloft and the potential timing of this system could support stronger and potentially severe storms as we head into mid/late July.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 543 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly burn off this morning, leaving behind a few elevated cumulus this afternoon and some thin passing high level clouds into this evening. Light winds with local lake breeze development this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.