textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms continue today into this evening, especially across northern lower. Primary threats with any strong storms will be large hail and damaging winds with non- zero tornado threat.

- Cooler weather beginning Sunday and lasting through much of the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper-level low centered over Ontario looks to largely churn in place this weekend and through much of next week. An associated jet max overhead will work east tonight as more pronounced troughing digs over the Great Lakes Sunday. At the surface, a weak cold front will slide across northern Michigan this evening into Sunday morning, becoming the focus for surface pressure falls across southern Michigan Sunday with favorable ascent aloft. Relatively high pressure is expected to build in to start the upcoming work week, but an unsettled pattern looks to set in for much of the week with multiple waves working across the region with the aforementioned closed low positioned just to our north.

Forecast Details:

Primary focus will be on scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Latest guidance gives increased confidence in additional development in the vicinity of the front across the eastern U.P. as well as continued activity across northern lower -- particularly near M-32/M-72 east of I-75. Mainly cloud-free skies south of the office and south-southwesterly low-level flow advecting a more favorable airmass northward (low 60s Tds just south of the CWA) should boost MLCAPE to around 1,000 J/kg in the next few hours. Perhaps more importantly, strong shear will be overlapping said buoyancy (0-6km shear ~60kts and 0-3km shear ~45kts). Despite less impressive thermodynamics, this magnitude of shear distributed throughout the vertical profile as evidenced by near term forecast soundings will support a localized heightened severe threat in the corridor mentioned above across northeast lower Michigan. While mixed-layer LCLs/cloud base heights are expected to be relatively high (around 1,500m), subtle-but-existant low-level veering would result in favorable streamwise vorticity ingestion for any right- moving supercells that develop -- leading to a tornado threat with any dominant storms. That said, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with any strong storms into this evening.

Additional showers and potential embedded storms will be possible later this evening into Sunday morning as the front crosses the area and eventually works to our southeast, leaving dry weather in place for most of the Northwoods during the day on Sunday. Rain chances look to hold off on Monday before returning heading into Tuesday/Wednesday as additional troughing slides over the Great Lakes. Aside from rain chances, this will also help keep temperatures on the cool side for much of the next week. Highs in the 60s and low/mid 70s with overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s would be a few degrees cooler than average for the middle of June.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 602 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Expecting a period of MVFR producing cigs to develop later tonight into Sunday morning behind a passing cold front, especially impacting KCIU and KPLN (perhaps KAPN as well). VFR conditions elsewhere under some passing mid level clouds and higher based cumulus. Winds go light tonight, with winds becoming a bit gusty out of the northwest heading through Sunday morning into the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016- 095-096-098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348- 349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344.