textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Accumulating snow and strong gusty winds continue today.

-Major winter storm expected to cross the Great Lakes region early Sunday through Monday night. Potentially record breaking snowfall across parts of northern Michigan, possible significant icing, and gusty winds are likely to impact Northern Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Midlevel longwave troughing covers the majority of North America with its axis centered over the Great Lakes region. Embedded shortwave/vorticity maximum continues to support a clipper progressing eastward across the CWA through this evening. The leading edge of heaviest snowfall is expected to be positioned directly over northern Michigan this morning followed by the center of low pressure tracking overhead by the afternoon. Beyond this morning, snowfall rates will lower as this clipper progresses eastward and finally ends tonight.

500mb troughing then shifts its axis over the Central Plains with a strong upper-level jet max north of the Michigan/Canadian border. A tight low-level thermal gradient develops over northern Michigan this weekend with temperatures near freezing dividing Michigan in half. Attention quickly turns toward another wave developing over the Central Plains this weekend and lifting through the Ohio Valley. Rapidly deepening surface cyclogenesis will bring widespread heavy snowfall along with heavy mixed precipitation potential.

After deep surface low pressure progresses to the northeast this Tuesday, the remainder of the forecast period turns relatively quiet with longwave ridging building across the western CONUS and gradually building heights across the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will gradually climb above freezing Wednesday and beyond, returning conditions back to climatologically average for mid-March. Periodic waves of energy will keep chances of precipitation in the forecast next week, with multiple p-types possible, but no evidence of impactful weather is expected beyond the Sunday/Monday cyclone.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Accumulating snow and strong gusty winds continue today... Strong mid-level lapse rates and strong warm air advection will drive moderate to heavy snowfall across the CWA this morning. Surface low tracks directly over northern lower this afternoon, leading to a short window of decreasing pressure gradient force winds and lighter rain/snow showers. Winds and snowfall are expected to pick up again on the backside of this clipper later this afternoon/evening, gusting into the 40s with only an additional inch or less for most locations this evening. Snowfall totals remain highest for areas along the Tip of the Mitt/Straits where f-gen drives the most lift, with 5-9 inches and locally higher amounts. The remainder of the CWA will observe totals of 3-7 inches, with locally higher amounts across higher terrain. Regardless of snowfall amounts, gusty winds will lead to pockets of blowing snow and rapid drops in visibilities for the morning and evening commutes.

-Major winter storm expected to cross the Great Lakes region early Sunday through Monday night. Heavy accumulating snowfall, mixed precipitation, and gusty winds are likely to impact Northern Michigan... Strong low-level moisture advection tapping into the gulf combined with ideal midlevel dynamics will rapidly deepen the vertically stacked cyclone to deliver high QPF to Northern Michigan. Latest model runs show a deeper trough and surface low pressure deepening more compared to yesterday's forecast, resulting in the storm track shifting slightly north. The northerly shift in the aforementioned thermal gradient will support more mixed precipitation... including freezing rain to favor the southeastern half of northern lower while northwest northern lower and eastern upper will more likely observe heavy snow. Still a little too early to message snow and icing totals as models vary totals run by run. As it is subject to change... highest probabilities of QPF for this event across the CWA remain between 1-2", which in theory could lead to significant amounts of icing for areas subject to freezing rain while intense and efficient snowfall could result in well over a foot by Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

An incoming clipper will move thru the area Friday. A band of healthy snow will lift ne into northern MI late tonight. IFR conditions in snow will develop and expand ne-ward with time. BLSN will also occur (especially before it mixes with rain), most commonly at CIU/PLN. Precip will eventually mix with/turn to rain at MBL/TVC/APN on Friday. Snow-liquid ratios will be low, near 10:1. IFR to low-end MVFR cigs will linger even after widespread precip diminishes.

Gusty se winds develop tonight, with variable winds Friday as low pressure crosses the area. LLWS very late tonight MBL/TVC.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016- 017-088-095>098. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ018- 021>024-086-087-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Tuesday morning for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.