textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

No major changes needed to a tranquil and mild forecast. Upper lows will hover off the east coast, and develop off of and then move onto the west coast. Those are the anchors of an omega block in the central Conus.

An active storm track remains across central Canada. Some models, in the process of diving energy into/reinforcing troffing over far eastern Canada late this week, do bring a shortwave across the northern lakes midweek (Wed afternoon/ evening). This system doesn't have much moisture to work with, and the going forecast will remain dry. But there is some guidance (definitely a minority) that squeezes out a smidge of QPF over eastern upper MI Wednesday afternoon. So something to at least keep an eye on.

Otherwise quiet, warm, and relatively sunny. As surface high pressure builds east today from ND toward Lk Superior, the pressure gradient relaxes considerably. That process has already gotten underway, and surface winds today will be considerably lighter than Sunday. A bit more cloud cover possible on Wednesday, especially in the north. Max temps on Sunday overachieved a bit, not unusual in full sun. Have boosted guidance temps a bit over the next couple of days a degree or two.

Next chance for rain, and it isn't much at this point, is out toward Sat night/Sunday, again mainly in the eastern UP.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR. Clear skies through the forecast period aside from maybe some high clouds. Bigger story is lingering LLWS 30-40kts at 2kft from strong winds aloft. Winds both aloft and at the surface slacken considerably late tonight. Light Sw winds early Monday turn NW in the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.