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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/storm chances later this evening/tonight...hanging on into Friday...with widespread 0.5 inch totals expected by Saturday morning. Parts of northeast Lower Michigan have a better shot at an inch or more, particularly near Saginaw Bay and north of M-32.

- Cool/dreary Saturday...temps near freezing Saturday night?

- Rain chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Upper ridging stretches up the length of the MS Valley...extending into Manitoba...with broad troughing across the western US that is split into two distinct segments. First of these is a shortwave digging through British Columbia/Alberta with attendant northerly 100+kt upper jet coming off the Pacific into British Columbia. Second of these features is a sharp PV maxima lifting through MT/ND into S. Saskatchewan...with some trailing PV back through southern ID/OR/NoCal. SWly 100kt jet attendant to this as well...and not surprised to see abundant height falls across this area...and an anomalous 988mb surface low over eastern MT. Surface high pressure over the southeastern US and off the coast enhancing low-level return flow (40-50kts at 850mb) through the Plains allowing for abundant moisture off the Gulf (pwats at or above 1-in well up through the Dakotas, even into the southern Canadian Prairies ahead of the lifting niblet)...amid a warm air mass (850mb temps in the +20C range and higher)...and steep lapse rates aloft. Surface warm front extends from surface low in the Saskatchewan/MT area...through central MN...northern IL...and near the MI/OH border...with some attendant convective activity in this area near/prior to 0z. Cold front attendant to this system stretches from western ND back into central UT...with a dryline noted across western TX/OK. A bit of a boundary north of the primary warm front as well...from the ND/International Border into western Ontario. One more disturbance stretches the length of Quebec, attendant to a PV maxima and NWly 100+kt upper jet across eastern Canada. Here in the Great Lakes... dry airmass in place for a change...with light flow allowing for lake breeze development yesterday afternoon.

Ridge axis to cross the area today/tonight...with upstream troughing ultimately turning into a closed upper low by late tonight into Friday...becoming somewhat cutoff from the flow this weekend over the southern Canadian Prairies/International Border. Will expect things to remain largely mild here today...with increasing chances for active weather late tonight into Friday as lobe of energy and attendant surface troughing crosses the area. We may then end up in a bit of a nebulous/col region area for the weekend...between influence of the upper low to our northwest and whatever is left of the ridge that will be getting pinched off over eastern Canada; will expect things to be cool and a little to the dreary side for some to start the weekend. Appears some energy tracks out of the southwestern US late in the weekend...as upper low over southern Canada retrogrades...allowing the ridge to rebuild in our vicinity...though it should also lead to the development of a surface low over the central US, which will need to be monitored going into next week, given some signals that this could be a strong/dynamic system...and could crash into our area later Monday into Tuesday. Will need to keep an eye on rainfall potential with this...as it should have a Gulf tap. For the latter portion of the forecast period...will be watching to see how that upper low swirls through the flow toward/into the Upper Great Lakes...potentially setting up a shot for more fall-like conditions going into the middle of next week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/storms this afternoon/evening?... There could be a stray shower/rumble of thunder this morning, particularly across the EUP ahead of the warm front (could sneak into the Tip of the Mitt area)...but antecedent atmosphere is quite dry...and think it will struggle to make it to the ground. Otherwise...think it is not impossible there could be some pop-up convective activity as early as this afternoon across the area, especially with more aggressive low-level warming/moistening in the wake of the warm front, especially south of M-72/M-55...though it is also a possibility we remain capped in the mid-levels this afternoon. Not a lot of shear to work with, which is just as well...but do think there is potential for a few hundred joules to near 1000j/kg of CAPE/MUCAPE late this afternoon and beyond over much of the area. While background winds should be on the increase...not impossible it remains light enough for lake breeze development to end up being a focus for convection. IF anything does develop this afternoon...pwats around a half inch or so suggest potential for a quarter to half inch of rain...though slow-moving storms along a lake breeze...or even stalled warm front...could become problematic. However, this would be a worst-case scenario if it were to even come to fruition. Otherwise, primary concern with any storms this afternoon, particularly if we are able to uncap, would be gusty downdraft winds, given potential for dry air aloft to enhance evaporative cooling.

Rain/storms tonight/Friday... Not impossible the warm front/deformation axis could stall across NE Lower this evening/tonight and lead to some activity there with some elevated instability present...but still looking like the better chance will be with the cold front and deeper moisture (pwats in excess of 1-in) moving through starting after 9z. Thermal profiles attm aren't terribly impressive for strong storms up this way on Friday (better for rainfall, unfortunately). Am concerned about potential for the Tip of the Mitt to become a pivot point and/or inverted trough axis, focusing rainfall up in the vicinity of the Cheboygan River basin Friday. Latest forecast has increased 24-hr QPF from yesterday, particularly focused during the daylight hours (15z-03z)...now with 0.75-1in of rain in 24-hrs by 12z Saturday. Prob guidance does show about a 20-40 percent shot at 1in in 24hrs by Saturday morning across some portion of the area; hi-res probs seem to focus this potential across the Tip of the Mitt, with a secondary maxima down over Gladwin/Arenac counties. Think this secondary QPF maxima will be related to potentially more vigorous convection closer to what could be a warm front/triple point down in that vicinity later Friday afternoon that could focus activity down there as well. Additionally...low-level moisture could hang on across NE Lower into Saturday...which at best would result in a cold and dreary day...and at worst, could result in additional rainfall, if there is some axis of forcing (such as an inverted trough).

Colder Saturday/night...will have to see how things clear out Saturday for purposes of frost/freeze concerns Saturday night...but starting out with highs in the 50s to lower 60s is certainly closer to normal than the last couple days, and a standard diurnal swing would be down into the 30s across the area. Potential fly-in-the- ointment/saving-grace (depending on how you look at it) with this aspect of the forecast is that low-level/boundary layer moisture should still be hanging around, as drying behind Friday's system isn't overly aggressive. This idea suggests it will be a little more difficult for temperatures to completely bottom out Saturday night (and perhaps even fog development? Col regions/nebulous flow patterns tend to be notorious for this). While growing-degree-days (base 50F) are still near or less than 100 (normal threshold of concern for us is around 125)...with the warmer conditions expected today and even Friday...frost concerns could certainly come into play for parts of northern Lower Michigan in the near future.

Rain/storm potential Monday into Tuesday... Timing seems to be honing in on the idea of the next niblet swinging into the area later Monday into Tuesday...though some timing uncertainty remains in how quickly this occurs. Certainly looks as though there could be some better moisture with this...with signals for anomalous pwats (perhaps in excess of an inch?) across the Midwest during this timeframe. Combined with a more dynamic system, will need to monitor the potential for more of this moisture to get wrung out of the atmosphere, though whether it sets up directly over our area is yet to be determined. For what it's worth...longer-range prob guidance currently suggests there is low-medium potential for an inch of rainfall Monday/Tuesday across at least some part of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 546 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

More VFR conditions through the period, with just a few passing high level clouds today, and gradually increasing high and mid level clouds tonight. May see a light shower impact KMBL toward sunrise Friday, with better rain chances and eventually lower cigs holding off until after this taf period. Southeast to south winds today becoming southeast tonight. Winds will become a bit gusty at times, especially at KCIU.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT Friday night for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT Friday night for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Friday night for LMZ342. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT Friday night for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322.