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KEY MESSAGES

- Brief chances for light rain/snow over eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt early Sunday and early Monday morning

- Southwest winds strengthening to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Sunday through early Monday

- Next system will impact all of northern MI midweek, bringing chances for mixed precip, accumulating snow, and colder temperatures

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Northwest winds will continue to move into northern lower this evening behind a cold front passage. Light rain showers will continue as the front moves through the area. Temperatures tonight will drop near or below freezing with this cooler and drier airmass settling in. The colder temps will be brief as winds turn southwest tomorrow morning under a surface cyclone passage to the north (tracking over southern CAN). Light snow will be possible over eastern upper and down into the tip of the mitt early Sunday morning, with most precip becoming rain later in the morning. An upper shortwave paired with this surface cyclone will aid in squeezing out whatever moisture there is, however a drier airmass in the lower levels will be in place. Due to this, precipitation should remain light and most of it should exit the area by the mid afternoon hours. Due to the forcing southwest winds will strengthen tomorrow morning, becoming 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds should peak around midday but will remain elevated through the night time hours.

Another surface cyclone will track across southern CAN, keeping gradients tight into Monday. Southwest winds continue as a second round of gusts up to 30 mph is seen across northern MI Monday morning. Chances for light rain over eastern upper and down to the tip of the mitt late Sunday into early Monday. Skies clear Monday afternoon, and with the warmer airmass in place, afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the 50s and 60s for northern lower. Eastern upper will likely see high temperatures in the 40s to 50s due to a colder near surface airmass over southern CAN which will begin to creep over the U.P. later on Monday. Surface high pressure continues to slide east over Ontario CAN Tuesday, allowing a weak side/backdoor cold front to eventually push through. East to northeast winds will be seen on the northern side of this boundary, which could stall somewhere over northern lower or central lower MI. More zonal flow alfot brings in moisture on top of this boundary, and will likely result in times of a wintry mix later Tuesday.

How this pattern continues to evolve is still up for debate in guidance. The general consensus is to track a surface cyclone centered in the plains through SE MI Wednesday. The timing/speed of this feature and strength of the low differs in global guidance. ECMWF deterministic deepens the surface low to sub 1000mb and keeps the feature progressive. This amplifies the flow and surges warmer low level air farther north... depicting an accumulating ice scenario. The GFS keeps the 0C 850mb line farther south due to a weaker surface low, and thus the features are slightly more stacked to favor a rain/snow with occasional sleet scenario. GFS/ECMWF AI and the ensemble members meet somewhere in the middle of these two scenario's, where the controls of each are not aligned with the ensemble means. Although this showcases a higher uncertainty forecast, we can draw some conclusions at this time. Somewhere over northern MI, mixed precipitation will fall late Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact type, amounts, and further refining of locations still need to be flushed out.

As the surface low center reaches SE MI (sometime Wednesday) all precip will transition to snow. Current global ensembles favor keeping total snow amounts at or below 3 to 5 inches, however this greatly depends on the main precip type earlier on Wednesday. Eastern upper theoretically has a better shot at seeing most the precip fall as snow, and amounts will likely increase here as higher resolution guidance starts to capture this event.

Colder temperatures and the unsettled patter will continue through next weekend, with another system possibly brining more widespread accumulating snow to northern MI near the end of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

-SHRA will continue across the region through this afternoon and evening, perhaps mixing with -SN. CIGs will remain a mix of LIFR to MVFR through this evening before becoming mainly MVFR tonight, with VFR CIGs expected for most terminals by Sunday morning. VSBYs steadily improve through this evening and tonight as well, generally 2 to 4SM within BR and showers, locally lower within any FG that persists, mainly KCIU. Winds will become breezy to windy on Sunday, with a period of LLWS Sunday morning between 40 and 45 knots.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.