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KEY MESSAGES

-Quiet conditions expected across the northwoods today and tonight with mild temperatures building.

-Chances of precip return this Friday with multiple p-types, including freezing rain potential.

-Additional wintry precip and gusty winds this weekend.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 236 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Wednesday and Thursday...Ongoing surface high pressure will continue quiet conditions across the Great Lakes Region. Winds calm during the late overnight hours (tonight) and remain light through Thursday with high temperatures in the low 30s.

Friday and Saturday...Conditions turn more active this weekend as midlevel troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska progresses southeast this week and positions itself over the upper midwest this Friday. Latest model runs depict precip spreading across the Great Lakes Region as early as Friday morning with low level temperatures warm enough to support increasing trends of mixed precip; including freezing rain potential. Latest probabilities of freezing rain remain highest across central Michigan extending up to near M-32 and most likely snow north of the bridge. Moisture dynamics of this system is not too impressive as this vorticity maxima remains cut off from any moisture source, but we will continue to monitor this system and its accumulation potential as we head toward the weekend.

Sunday and Monday Outlook...Previously mentioned trough axis will be positioned over northern Superior/southern Ontario this Sunday. Another round of rain and snow showers form surface low pressure remains likely as strong cold air advection tracks across Michigan and eventually transitions rainfall to lake effect snow on overnight Sunday/Monday. To early to give snowfall amounts or even timing, but strong winds and impactful weather remains very likely early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Light precip will continue to spread across parts of northern Michigan tonight before tapering off into Tuesday morning. Dominant precip type is expected to be light snow with saturation well past -10C through most of the column, but pockets of freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out. Mainly VFR conditions are currently in place as CIGs begin to lower across the far southwestern CWA, including MBL. Drops to IFR and even LIFR are expected later tonight into Tuesday morning, especially across interior areas. Low clouds look to scatter out at MBL and TVC Tuesday afternoon and lift to MVFR later for other locations.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for LHZ345-346-349. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for LMZ341-342. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.