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KEY MESSAGES

- Sporadic shower/storm chances for a few days, highest / most widespread chances Wednesday.

- Somewhat cooler temps late this week and weekend.

- Next more widespread rain / storm chances builds Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Progressive WNW flow regime to prevail through the rest of the week, with northern Michigan lying north of a stationary boundary (analyzed from roughly Omaha to Cleveland to Philadelphia) that will remain the focus of several convectively charged waves. Result is much deeper moisture pooling well to our south, with modest moisture remaining overhead... just enough for potential mesoscale shenanigans. Disheveled surface high overhead will not exactly dissuade the notion of convective development along the Lake Huron breeze boundary along with eastern upper the next couple days before a weak wave traverses the region, bringing scattered convection potential to the entirety of the CWA. 500mb ridge axis builds after midweek, with plume of monsoonal moisture coincides with a trough building into the Plains. Guidance seems bullish on an associated deepening surface low to make a pass at the upper Great Lakes over the weekend. On paper, this should be sufficient enough to force the aforementioned stationary front northward, and the combination of monsoonal origin moisture coupled with return flow drawing Gulf moisture northward conceptually should bring a more widespread and appreciable rainfall chance across the region Saturday into Sunday. Following the passage of this feature, the pattern shifts back into progressive NW flow, which should lead to more quick-moving convectively charged shortwaves making passes through the Great Lakes, though it's a bit far out to pinpoint where exactly any convective complexes occur next week.

Details:

Today-Tuesday: Ongoing robust convective complexes over Ohio showcase the barrier that the aforementioned stationary front presents between deeper moisture and the modest moisture overhead. Most of the convection that has wavered north of the front has floundered considerably while activity south of the front (in the deeper moisture) has been able to maintain itself quite well. As such, anticipation is that convective responses will remain muted overhead. Lack of overall synoptic forcing will leave coverage to an isolated footprint today, limited to the Lake Huron lake breeze area. Limited shear and instability will suppress severe potential. Somewhat deeper moisture builds Tuesday, Light west to southwest flow will maximize lake breeze convergence across northeast lower and eastern upper, and thus, that will be where greatest storm potential lies. Scattered downpours will be possible, but not looking like a washout by any means.

Wednesday-Friday: Embedded shortwave passage coupled with continued deeper moisture will drum up a much more widespread footprint of shower and storm potential Wednesday. Timing of this feature might actually be halfway decent to overlap "greatest" synoptic forcing with peak heating, thus leading to the more "widespread" footprint of convection that includes northwest lower too. Severe potential looks limited Wednesday too, with downpours likely posing the greatest hazard at this juncture. In the wake of this system, area of Canadian surface high pressure intrudes from the northwest in conjunction with a 500mb ridge axis, delivering a drier airmass to the region (and perhaps a brief reprieve from the thick blanket of Pacific NW wildfire smoke aloft). Temperatures trend near to below normal Thursday and Friday (highs in the 70s), with cooler nights (lows in the 40s and 50s likely).

Weekend-Next Week: Ridge overhead breaks down as SWerly flow brings the next disturbance to the region. Guidance is all over the place in regard to the evolution of this wave, and will likely be dictated by convective evolution over the Plains. Bottom line- this system looks to build a relatively deep moisture plume into the region, which should support heavy rainfall potential. As is always the case in this delightful little slice of planet earth, every little intricate detail has to be perfect for us to get widespread heavier rain with moderate to weak synoptic support. I'm convinced something as simple as a fly getting swatted by a horse's tail in Manton can lead to a series of ludicrous domino effects that entirely derail a convection / thunderstorm setup in northern Michigan, though I should disclose that I have also been accused of being entirely too pessimistic in this regard. Nonetheless, still a lot of detail to unpack on this upcoming system, but the potential is there for appreciable rainfall on a bit more widespread scale than what we have seen the last couple weeks. If the timing is primed in regard to our field of instability, perhaps even a severe storm element can materialize. Following the passage of this system into next week, NW flow returns, which, conceptually supports more rounds of rain and thunder via convective complexes building upstream.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 152 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Low level Cu field will continue to dissipate this afternoon, resulting in VFR condtions at all TAF sites. Cloud cover and BR redevelop overnight as MVFR ceilings and VSBYs occupy most of Northern Michigan between 0500Z and 1300Z. VFR will again return to all TAF sites this Tuesday with light winds veering throughout the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.