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KEY MESSAGES

-Light snowfall with rain mixing in spreads across Michigan today.

-Mild weather builds this week with highs in the upper 30s for most areas.

-Watching for widespread showers this weekend followed by potential accumulating lake effect snow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 226 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Previously mentioned midlevel ridge continues to build this Tuesday and Wednesday placing its axis over the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure will support mild/quiet weather Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the Upper 30s for most parts of the CWA. Low end probabilities of rain returns this Thursday as a frontal boundary tied to troughing over Hudson Bay extends precip down through the lower Great Lakes region. Again, the majority of areas remain dry, but a few isolated showers with little to no QPF along eastern upper remain possible.

Thursday and Friday...Low pressure develops lee of the Rockies and extends a boundary driven via warm advection through the Great Lakes region. Current guidance does depict favorable midlevel dynamics to support organization, but a lack of strong moisture advection from the south. Current ensembles/blends continue to keep the highest QPF probs below a quarter inch of mainly rainfall, but models still have a decent spread on how much moisture advection is actually drawn from the Pacific. We will continue to monitor this set up and its potential impacts around the busy holiday travel period.

Saturday and Sunday Outlook...Midlevel shortwave troughing currently stalled over the Gulf of Alaska slowly progresses across the country and makes its way to the northern plains region this weekend while deepening. Long range ensembles show potential support for a surface level cyclone to develop and track its center through the Great Lakes region this weekend. Too early to advertise amounts, but highest probs of decent measurable precipitation continues to trend upward with accumulating backside lake effect snow and gusty winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 613 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Previously mentioned midlevel ridge continues to build this Tuesday and Wednesday placing its axis over the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure will support mild/quiet weather Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the Upper 30s for most parts of the CWA. Low end probabilities of rain returns this Thursday as a frontal boundary tied to troughing over Hudson Bay extends precip down through the lower Great Lakes region. Again, the majority of areas remain dry, but a few isolated showers with little to no QPF along eastern upper remain possible.

Thursday and Friday...Low pressure develops lee of the Rockies and extends a boundary driven via warm advection through the Great Lakes region. Current guidance does depict favorable midlevel dynamics to support organization, but a lack of strong moisture advection from the south. Current ensembles/blends continue to keep the highest QPF probs below a quarter inch of mainly rainfall, but models still have a decent spread on how much moisture advection is actually drawn from the Pacific. We will continue to monitor this set up and its potential impacts around the busy holiday travel period.

Saturday and Sunday Outlook...Midlevel shortwave troughing currently stalled over the Gulf of Alaska slowly progresses across the country and makes its way to the northern plains region this weekend while deepening. Long range ensembles show potential support for a surface level cyclone to develop and track its center through the Great Lakes region this weekend. Too early to advertise amounts, but highest probs of decent measurable precipitation continues to trend upward with accumulating backside lake effect snow and gusty winds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Currently a mixed bag of conditions due to -SN/RA moving over the area. Winds generally SW, but remain AOB 10kts for most sites which has been leading to some VRB direction at times. Took G15-20kts out of the TAF for KPLN/KTVC however there could be an observation or two that does see the gusts. Precip is struggling to reach KPLN/KAPN/KCIU, however another round will push in near 00Z. By this time, -SN will be likely over most sites (besides KMBL/KTVC). Precip will be light and will likely transition to times of FZDZ after 04Z. Very little accumulations are expected at terminal with the best chances for seeing FZDZ (KPLN/KAPN/KTVC). Some uncertainty exists for coastal adjacent terminals, as surface temperatures could stay a degree to two too warm (resulting in -RA). Confidence is increasing in BR/FG impacts from 10Z thru 16Z for KMBL/KTVC/KAPN. Winds will turn west near the end of the period, when conditions should begin to trend VFR.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ342. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LMZ344>346.