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KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect snow showers Tuesday.

- Widespread snowfall Thursday.

- Reinforcing push of arctic air arrives Friday along with associated impacts (cold/snow).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Maligned forcing from a shortwave trough will continue to make its way eastward through the rest of the overnight into today (Tuesday), taking with it much of the forcing and moisture that is producing ongoing areas of snowfall across much of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. Upstream 1031mb surface high over Manitoba will move south and east ahead of another jet max and embedded shortwave currently materializing over the Canadian Rockies. As such, with the increasing influences of the surface high flexing a bit today and surface flow trending more NNW, anticipating snowfall to trend down for a good 80% of the CWA, with increasingly sunny skies, albeit a bit chillier as a weak reinforcement of colder air builds into the region. For the other 20% of the CWA... which would be areas near and south of Grand Traverse Bay... just enough moisture and fetch on Lake Michigan to produce some NNW flow lake effect snowfall. Parameters are not earth shattering, but overall, some areas may see an additional few inches of snowfall through this evening. Highs today top out generally 12 to 22 degrees (coldest eastern upper and interior northern lower).

Looking ahead to tonight, weakening pressure gradient owing to the surface high passing through the Great Lakes will likely lead to a land breeze pattern and a quality radiational cooling setup through the overnight. It's going to be another cold night, and pending on how much winds decouple over land, it could be quite chilly in the typical spots that tank to colder temperatures. Blended guidance has temperatures near to below zero for much of eastern upper (basically everywhere except western Mackinac county) tonight... and for northern lower, most spots could be near zero, or at least in the lower single digits. Those near Grand Traverse Bay and south likely hold closer to 10 degrees. In the event that winds decouple early and skies remain partially to mainly clear, the status quo will quickly change, and opens the door to temps crashing well below zero for some through the evening. Will hedge slightly in this direction and introduce lows below zero tonight for the standard icebox locales of northern lower and leave most everyone else near zero (except Grand Traverse Bay region... lingering cloud should keep them milder). Guidance does have some low level moisture and stratus returning later... so won't take anyone past -5. As it stands, several spots could see their overnight lows in the evening before we plateau and rise a few degrees the rest of the night with that low level stratus deck moving in... perhaps even accompanied by a few snow showers.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Ridging to poke into the Great Lakes around midweek as troughing flattens out and "milder" air builds into the Great Lakes (highs in the 20s Wednesday and Thursday). Next item of interest will be the aforementioned jet max racing out of central Canada directly at the Great Lakes later Thursday into Friday. Subtle shortwave may bring a light snow to the region at times through the day Thursday, but not anything more than 1 to 3 inches over the course of the day (that's the ceiling for this event based on available guidance... still possible for this to not amount to much... more details to come). Bigger weather component will be courtesy of a deepening and closing off area of surface low pressure near James Bay, which will send a pretty stout arctic front through the region in conjunction with favorable jet dynamics, supporting strong isentropic lift across the Great Lakes, complete with warm advection that could very well spike temperatures above freezing in some places Friday morning. The cold front will blast through Friday morning, with a sharp wind shift to the NW... and with favorable wave and moisture plume positioning, does support a snow squall type setup with temperatures cratering the rest of the day, and quick refreezes on roadways... something that could very much impact holiday rec travel to the region Friday through the evening / night as temperatures will fall into the single digits and perhaps even well below zero overnight. Snowfall from this will probably wind up an additional 1 to 3+ inches. Wind chills will also likely be flirting with / exceeding cold weather advisory criteria for much of the area Friday night as wind chills slide into the teens below zero.

Chilly Saturday with potential for some more lake effect snow showers, though, as we have seen numerous times this winter, atmospheric thermodynamics may not support efficient snowflake growth... so probably looking at lower visibilities more than anything. Another chilly day Saturday with highs likely struggling to break past 10 above for most. Return flow builds Sunday, and we start to see more seasonable temperatures by the start of the next work week... and long term guidance does have this potentially being the start of a relaxation of the persistent arctic cold and snow... perhaps with highs above freezing at various times later next week. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Still looking at a mixture of MVFR to VFR conditions across the taf locations through the period. Light snow showers will continue to impact both KTVC and KMBL at times into this evening, but with minimal accumulations. Northwest winds become a bit gusty today, subsiding some this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.