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KEY MESSAGES

- Rain, or a wintry mix, changing to snow through the day, some accumulation across E UP and NE lower. - Snow showers will linger this weekend with some additional accumulations across northern lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Current water vapor imagery shows a picturesque upper low just north of Duluth, slowly spinning away beneath a stubborn high pressure system near northern Ontario. This energy retrogrades to the WNW, while the next ball of vorticity, currently a bit elongated across the C Plains-Mid MS Valley, moves northeast from southern Lake MI to the thumb. This puts a sfc low track from Manistee towards Harrison, or close to there through the day today. Plenty of lift expected on the northern and northwest periphery of these features, with mixed precipitation expected through the day today, but mostly rain and snow to some degree within marginally cold low levels.

Sfc low meanders across the Lake Huron shoreline tonight through much of this weekend and weakens. General troughiness passing near or just to our south and ridging remaining to our north and northeast looks like it will create and area of deformation. Sfc troughing will extend from northern MI northwest into the Upper Midwest this weekend. Consequently, snow and snow showers will continue this weekend across northern Michigan.

Additional snow showers of lake effect origin expected, probably as early as Sunday into Mondayish, as winds turn more northerly with low pressure system, 850 mb height depression, and the mess of energy aloft finally evacuating (perhaps aiding in an east coast special?) All the while, upper ridge builds across the Intermountain West. However, by the middle portions of next week, significant energy moving across Canada will beat down the ridge, with a clipper system bringing back the chance for more snow.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Wintry Weather Today:

Not the easiest forecast in the world in regard to assessing the amount of impacts for this event. Most guidance suggest mild lower level thermal profiles as the sfc low tracks east to west, with some areas in the mid 30s for sfc Ts. Not only that, it is not like the lapse rates are all that steep right above the sfc for a majority of the precipitation. Thus, although the marginal thermal profile is expected, there will be enough dynamic cooling as the heavier precipitation lifts into N MI for rain to transition to snow, or a rain/snow mix, through the midday and afternoon hours. Guidance is honing in on northeast lower into the Straits as the area with the most residence time for that snow transition, in addition to the heaviest precipitation expected. Additionally, any mixed precip in regards to sleet and freezing rain early in the day across the UP will quickly move towards a rain/snow mix or wet snow. Thinking most of the snow today will be within the 1 to 2 inch range, with northeast lower, the Straits, and portions of eastern upper with the better potential for 1 to 3 inches. Given the warm sfc temps, it is hard to discern how much will stick to the roadways and inevitable cause impact. Kuchera and 10:1 snow ratios are practically useless in this scenario, tend to side more with the pos snow depth change, which lines up with a 1 to 3 inch scenario on most guidance. There is certainly a little discrepancy in location on enhanced snowfall, GFS & NAM are a little southeast vs most guidance that are hugging the Lake Huron coastline from ~Alpena up towards Cheboygan, and recent runs of the HRRR/RAP are not that impressive overall. There could be some areas of drizzle for a period this evening, something to take a look at. But with the marginal temps as it is, probably will not be a huge concern. Additionally, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible, focusing from the eastern UP down into portions of northern lower.

The question turns to whether to expand the advisory down a couple of counties across northeast lower. As of this time, thinking of not doing so based on how warm it may be and how much melting may take place prior to the snow sticking. That being said, there is a scenario where the strong lift and heavy precipitation cool the temps very rapidly and sticking happens sooner, and thus, a little more snow falls across portions of northeast lower. Leaning with a higher percentage towards not expanding the winter weather advisory for this scenario based on the aforementioned reasons, but really the messaging would stay the same, 1 to 3 inches of wet heavy snow across northeast lower near the Lake Huron coastline from Alpena to Cheboygan/Tip of the Mitt and northward.

Snow Showers Tonight Into This Weekend:

We begin to feel the influence of a deformation zone, energy aloft, and sfc trough tonight, lingering through the weekend. This will produce areas of enhanced snow showers and snowfall across northern MI. Guidance trying to hone in on better areas of snowfall, one being around Traverse City, but also another across northeast lower MI. This area of snow showers will likely drift around with time and thus accumulating snow is likely for a good chunk of the area, with the potential for advisory level snows for some areas. Little bit more of a lake effect look on Sunday and into portions of Monday, but could be some decent snows for some this weekend and worth a more in depth look.

Clipper Next Week:

Decent agreement in guidance on a quick hitting clipper system mid next week, ~ later Tuesday into Wednesday. Too early for specifics, but ensemble guidance is on board as well with low probs (10-40%) for 3 inches of snow or more across portions of northern MI. This will ultimately be determined by the exact placement of the energy aloft and subsequent lower level features. But at least another chance for snow mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Rain will continue to spread from southwest to northeast across northern Michigan this morning, eventually turning to a rain/snow mix by late morning/early afternoon. Associated IFR/LIFR CIGs will likely persist at all TAF sites into this evening. Conditions look to improve to MVFR across parts of the eastern U.P. later tonight as IFR/LIFR conditions remain in place south of the bridge. Gusty east winds will gradually lighten today as the system moves overhead, turning to northwest winds later tonight as the system departs east.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ086>088-095>097. MARINE...None.