textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-A quick round of precipitation will move across northern Michigan Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

-High pressure will support quiet, dry weather through the remainder of the week, with temperatures building into the 50s and 60s.

-Additional chances of precipitation return next week as a cold air mass introduces the potential for mixed precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

500mb longwave trough axis is positioned over the lower Great Lakes region this morning and continues to progress eastward. Mid-level heights will begin to rise today, supporting surface high pressure quickly scouring out lingering low-level moisture that is currently producing lake-effect snow showers. Simultaneously, an upstream shortwave developing over the Canadian Rockies will dig southwest, bringing a quick round of precipitation to Northern Michigan this Wednesday and Thursday.

The remainder of the week remains relatively benign as mid-level flow turns more zonal over the Midwest. A Pacific air mass will result in mild temperatures building through Saturday. Upstream, a mid-level closed low developing over the Pacific Northwest will progress eastward early next week, extending moisture downstream. A baroclinic setup is expected to develop over the Great Lakes region, with a thermal gradient strong enough to produce chances for mixed precipitation across the Midwest early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Quick round of precipitation (Wednesday afternoon Thursday): The aforementioned shortwave over the Canadian Rockies will develop an attached surface low as early as Wednesday afternoon. Warm air advection-driven snowfall favoring Eastern Upper will produce a few tenths of an inch of snow, but will likely lead to brief visibility reductions for the Wednesday evening commute. Temp profiles will warm overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, transitioning all precipitation to rain. Convective-driven rainfall will be moisture- starved, with enough stability to keep thunderstorms south of the CWA. Total QPF of a quarter inch or less is expected by Thursday evening before subsidence aloft ends all precipitation.

High pressure and warming (Friday Saturday): A stationary boundary will develop across the Ohio Valley this Friday with most moisture remain south of the CWA. The majority of locations will remain precipitation-free Friday and Saturday as midlevel heights slowly rise. Highs will climb into the mid-to-upper 50s, with the potential for the southernmost counties of the CWA to reach 60 degrees this Saturday.

Mixed precipitation potential (Next week): A thermal gradient will set up over the Midwest early next week as moisture spreads from the developing low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation will return to the Great Lakes region around the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Long-range ensembles hint at active wintry or mixed precipitation, but this remains dependent on the final location of the boundary. It is too early for specific details on precip types and locations, but we will continue to monitor this active pattern with future model runs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Any lingering MVFR to IFR producing lake effect snow showers will quickly come to an end early this morning. Cigs rise and scatter out thereafter, leaving behind mostly sunny/clear skies this afternoon into this evening. Gusty northwest winds will continue to subside, with winds becoming light this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321- 322.