textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry mix possible across eastern Upper early this morning; Rain to snow transition across northern Lower with frontal passage during the afternoon/ evening.

- Colder temperatures Friday with snow chances Friday night into Saturday.

- Active pattern developing next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Stronger upper-level support begins to overspread the region early this morning as a shortwave rides through a strong upper- level jet, with precipitation expected to push in from the west. Thermal profiles across eastern Upper could start off a bit messy with the 0C line at 850mb draped overhead and surface temperatures hovering near freezing. There are still hints of a weak warm layer aloft, and while some lingering mid-level dry air may initially favor snow, a mix of light snow and freezing rain appears possible early on. Any ice accumulations should remain light, but could still result in a few slick spots for the morning commute.

Farther south into northern Lower, precipitation onset should primarily be rain, but that doesn't appear to last as a cold front steadily drops south through the area during the day. Have already trended temperatures a bit cooler with this forecast package, though there's still some concern that readings could come in even lower that currently forecast. If this colder solution verifies, a quicker transition to snow would occur, especially across eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt. In this scenario, a slushy inch or two of accumulation would not be out of the question, with eastern Upper likely leaning toward mainly snow for a good portion of the event. As better forcing and deeper moisture arrive mid to late morning, precipitation becomes more widespread before mainly focusing south of the bridge through the afternoon. Across northern Lower, expect rain to transition to a rain/snow mix ahead of the front, then over to snow from north to south with the frontal passage later in the day. There remains a fairly tight thermal gradient across the region, and while better instability holds south, can't completely rule out a stray rumble of thunder sneaking up toward Saginaw Bay.

Behind the front, colder air filters in quickly late afternoon into this evening, with any lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow. As deeper moisture begins to strip out, there is also the potential for some patchy freezing drizzle to develop into the evening into early tonight. Overall precipitation amounts remain on the lighter side, but between the mix this morning and the refreezing potential tonight, slick spots will be possible early today and again later tonight.

Colder air settles in to close out the week, with Friday likely seeing highs struggle to reach, or even remain below, freezing across much of northern Michigan. The broader upper-level trough swings overhead Friday into Saturday, bringing additional chances for light snow, with some modest lake enhancement possible. Moisture remains somewhat limited, so accumulations look minor, but enough to keep occasional snow showers in the forecast. High pressure gradually builds in later Saturday into Sunday, allowing conditions to quiet down while temperatures moderate back toward more seasonably the end of the weekend. Looking ahead into early next week, guidance continues to hint at a more active pattern taking shape as additional energy ejects from the west. With colder air still lingering nearby there are early signs that multiple precipitation types could come into play across the Great Lakes, though details remain uncertain at this range-- more to come, stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Mixed precip developing and moving across northern MI today. Initial precip in the Straits and eastern UP is mainly -FZRA and PL, per the ob from Sault Canada. Precip exits the CIU area fairly quickly this morning. PLN will see icy precip for a couple hours, before turning to rain. APN could see an intial mix, but will be mainly rain. Just rain TVC/MBL. Cigs steadily lower to IFR today (MVFR at MBL), and PLN/APN/CIU could go LIFR for a period. Improving conditions tonight.

Northerly breezes increase this afternoon and tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.