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KEY MESSAGES

-Light lake effect snow showers linger today delivering only small additional accumulations.

-Weak cold frontal passage returns another round of light snowfall with localized higher amounts via lake enhancement.

-Cold temperatures occupy the Great Lakes region this Thursday followed by continued period chances of snowfall this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel closed low pressure over Hudson Bay with long wave troughing occupying the northern CONUS will continue to keep cool cP air over the Great Lakes region through the entirety of the forecast period. Weak anticyclonic flow across the region will continue light lake effect snow showers for typical SW flow areas today, but dry low/mid level air being advected into the region will slowly scour out precip by tonight.

Forecast Details...

Today...Condtions across the region begin to turn quiet as surface high pressure currently building across the Mid-Mississippi valley slowly pushes dry air into the CWA today. Subsidence aloft will kill precipitation for most locations. Bands that are currently impacting the counties near the Lake Michigan shorelines will weaken, but have enough momentum to carry light showers through the afternoon. Any additional accumulations are expected to be just a trace of light 18:1 snow as bands to not have any synoptic support. Areas along Antrim, Charlevoix, and Emmit counties will accumulate an additional few tenths to an inch of snowfall while hi-rez guidance does depicts localized additional snowfall of 1-3" just north of Little Traverse Bay. But again; these bands will be very localized and not impact the majority of the region due to a lack of Synoptic support.

Tonight...Continued overall quiet weather is expected to continue as a few flurries only impact localized areas of the CWA (which is very par of the course for Northern Michigan in December). Warm air advection does move into the region tonight causing winds to become breezy while remaining mostly southwest. Lows remain somewhat mild as a result of WAA with expected widespread temperatures in the mid 20s by Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wednesday and Thursday...An embedded shortwave currently north of Montana will track eastward and make its way to Northern Ontario this Wednesday. Surface low pressure connected to this wave will drag a frontal passage across the Great Lakes region, returning another round of widespread snowfall to northern Michigan Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Dynamics of this system are not ideal as the embedded trough appears to be weakening with time and the frontal passage not tapping into deep southerly moisture. Highest probabilities of snowfall remain between a general half inch to 2" for most locations but northwestern gusty winds behind the front will likely deliver locally higher amounts via lake enhancement. Still a little too early to advertise snowfall totals depending on how robust the lake response is, but classic northwest flow has the highest probabilities to receive a few inches of even more snowfall this week.

Friday Through Monday Outlook...Long wave troughing spanned across the northern half of north America will continue to deliver periods of (somewhat) active weather through the reminder of the long term. Long range ensembles continue to keep low probs of snowfall through the weekend from embedded high disturbances or continued cool northwest flow triggering LES. No evidence of widespread heavy precipitation, but this long snowy pattern will remain in place delivering light snow showers as we head into mid December.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 600 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Ongoing snow showers -- most notably across the Tip of the Mitt near PLN -- will continue to diminish this morning. MVFR CIGs should persist across northwest lower Michigan into tonight, and eventually extend to CIU and APN this evening. Mainly light southwest winds between 5-10 kts are in store for today before increasing later this evening and tonight as a cold front encroaches on the area from the northwest. Lowering clouds are expected as this front approaches, potentially dropping TAF sites besides APN to IFR by the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ016. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ017- 088-096-097-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.