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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating Lake Effect Rain/Snow Showers Continue this morning

- Lake effect rain/snow showers continue tonight into Saturday, with some accumulations possible again across parts of Grand Traverse County, perhaps into Wexford County.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 402 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the western US getting pinched between energy getting flung out of the Gulf of AK (as well as some energy off SoCal)...and broad troughing over the E. US, reinforced by lobes of energy swirling westward from Hudson Bay/Quebec into the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest...as a 120+kt upper jet slithers through the flow over North America. While things are generally drying out over the Midwest/Upper MS Valley with subsidence and incoming high pressure...there is some warm advection ongoing across northern/eastern Ontario and Hudson Bay as some deeper moisture (and warmer temps aloft) sneak westward into the Upper Great Lakes...leaving the core of the coldest air overhead attm (850mb temps around -8C sneaking into the Straits as of 6z). Upstream energy trying to fight against this westward motion...and is making very slight progress, though slow going, given low-level flow through the Canadian Prairies is nearly parallel to the thermal gradient, with weak NE flow (less than 20kts at 850mb) over western Ontario/eastern Manitoba beneath 1030mb surface high. Thermal gradient is denoted at the surface by stationary boundary stretching from the Canadian Rockies down into TX/LA and up into the Appalachians...as a cold front stretches from S. TX to N. FL and up to a low off the New England coast. Surface trough stretching from WI to OH to our south...with another surface trough from Hudson Bay into eastern Quebec (associated with that warm advection). Primarily NE/NNE lake effect rain/snow bands ongoing attm over both NW and NE Lower MI (UpNorthLive studios west of TC had about a half inch of slop as of 1130pm); some radar returns are pivoting southward into Whitefish Bay ahead of PV max spinning just to our northeast.

PV max will continue to swirl down across the area this morning, exiting toward Chicago this afternoon, and will expect the most intense snows to taper off toward midday in its wake. Tonight, heights begin to rise and temps aloft begin to warm (closer to -5C at 850mb) as the core of the coldest air departs southward...though expect some of that moisture over Hudson Bay to advect in late in the day into Saturday morning on continued NE flow aloft...and think there will still be a bit of activity around into Saturday morning. Expectation is for increasing subsidence and influence of high pressure on the area going into Saturday night, with overall improvement in conditions going into Sunday (though think a bit of lake effect may try to hold on early). High pressure looks to overtake the region Sunday night into Monday as some energy rides over the top of the ridge across central Canada...and southern stream energy plods across the Lower MS Valley. Currently expect troughing to dig out west and rebuild the ridge axis into the MS Valley and Midwest...with increasing return flow across the central US going toward midweek, suggesting active weather for the middle of the country, and at least something of a warming trend into the Midwest.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/snow showers continue today/tonight into Saturday...incoming PV max should boost ongoing lake effect showers through the morning into midday or so...most likely reaching the M-55 corridor around midday or early afternoon. Some areas could turn back to all rain, but think snow will remain in the mix. Deeper moisture looks to briefly depart behind this...but another wave (and a bit of deeper moisture) dropping in toward 0z tonight should help boost activity again late afternoon into the evening hours. Does appear we will get into some warm advection aloft tonight, which should lower inversion heights, and could limit lake effect QPF a bit overnight. Flow looks to turn more north, which suggests convergence will again be enhanced downwind of GT Bay into the higher terrain south of Traverse City toward Cadillac...ultimately taking on more of a NNW idea going into Saturday morning. This could open the door for areas downwind of GT Bay to become a bit of a pivot point for lake effect snow bands as flow shifts...which could result in higher QPF/snowfall totals than otherwise expected....though still, setup attm does not look quite as favorable for lake effect as the current situation, again, given those lower inversion heights. Falling inversion heights could also result in a lack of ice nucleation, which could be a problem Friday night/Saturday morning for areas that hang onto lake effect AND get to or below freezing.

Otherwise, think lake effect showers will remain in play into Saturday and perhaps early Sunday, though the setup will again be less favorable than this morning. NNW to NW flow would bring some action into the usual snowbelt locations.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

A mix of mainly MVFR and VFR conditions will continue. Lake effect clouds will continue, and they will be typically high- end MVFR to low-end VFR. Lower conditions will be favored tonight/Fri morning at APN and especially TVC, where stronger bands are in the vicinity. After a midday lull, lake effect snow/rain will likely return to TVC. Northerly breezes continue.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-025-026. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321.