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KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze concerns continue (though probably not Friday night) with persistent cool weather

- Precip chances this weekend, especially Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Upper low will continue to spin over the ne Canada/Hudson Bay region into the middle of next week. Cool nw flow aloft will continue into the northern lakes, along with suppressed heights. Cooler than normal wx will persist for most of the next week...though maybe there are signs of improvement after that.

Any breaks in the morning cloud cover have filled in with cu/stratocu, and skies are overcast across most of northern MI. There is a wedge of drier air/partial clearing working into MBL and the far sw. Elsewhere, some sprinkles and light rain showers have sprouted, especially over eastern upper and far ne lower MI. For the broader Straits region, a chance of showers will linger all the way into tonight. But elsewhere, precip chances should end with loss of heating this evening.

Northern lower MI at least will also see partial clearing after loss of heating. With lighter winds tonight, that sets us up well for another chilly night. Min temps are expect to be roughly 2-3f warmer than last night, and so a mix of frost advisories (far se, part of nw lower MI) and freeze warnings (interior) have been issued.

Low level sw return flow will aid in bringing somewhat warmer (but more moist) air northward, beginning Friday. Small/sporadic precip chances begin Friday evening, with the best chance for Saturday as a stronger shortwave pivots into the northern lakes. Likely pops in some areas, especially east of I-75 in both peninsulas. Will also mention a slight chance for thunder in ne lower MI Sat afternoon, where SbCape values may approach 500j/kg.

Cold front goes thru late Saturday, and we return to below-normal temps for several days. After highs reach low 50s (Soo) to mid 60s (Standish) Saturday, we slip back to the upper 40s to mid 50s for highs Sunday/Monday, with a slow rebound after that. Sat-Sun-Mon nights all look to have a frost threat for at least part of northern lower MI.

There is a small chance for some showers Sunday-Monday, without a ton of moisture but under sharp upper troffing. A better chance looks to push in Tuesday, as a more well-defined wave slides se into the region.

The operational 12Z ECMWF is at least on board with the 00Z run, in finally allowing the upper flow to get more progressive by later next week. This would offer up a welcome opportunity for temps to get closer to normal for more than a day at a time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR condtions expected to continue through the issuance period. Occasionally breezy west-northwest winds (up to ~20 knots) will continue through this afternoon before winds become calm this evening through tonight. Isolated shower chances through this evening. Winds become breezy once again Friday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for MIZ016>018-022>024-027>030-032>036. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for MIZ020-021-025-026-031-041-042-098-099. MARINE...None.