textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Becoming windy and wet tonight into Tuesday

- Seasonable temperatures with a few shower chances mid to late week, heaviest rain focused south

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Fast moving upper flow across the northern tier of the CONUS with Pacific NW shortwave energy ejecting into the upper Midwest, as a transitory upper ridge amplifies over the Great Lakes. This will result in northward push of warm, moist air into our area tonight into Tuesday. The shortwave will shear out as it pushes toward James Bay, dragging a cold front across the area. This boundary will stall out to our south for the mid to late week period, with additional shortwaves bringing precipitation chances, focused mainly to our south.

Moisture increases quickly tonight along the slow moving frontal boundary to our west. The best forcing, upper divergence and deepest moisture puts the heaviest rain potential from upper Michigan southwest into parts of Wisconsin. Full saturation on forecast soundings becomes a question mark as you head further south, as they show a wedge of drier air below 850mb. The heaviest rain in our area will likely fall over eastern upper Michigan and the Tip of the Mitt, where totals of 0.50" to 1.00" will be possible. Further south, rainfall amounts will drop off, with some areas only seeing 0.25" to 0.50". Tuesday will start wet, with diminishing showers as the day progresses, as drier air begins to push into the area from the west. It will be breezy, as we partially mix down 35kt winds at the top of the boundary layer. Expect wind gusts of 20-30 mph over interior areas with some isolated 40+ mph gusts possible over coastal areas.

For the middle/end of the week, additional shortwave energy will ride along that quasi-stationary boundary to our south. This will keep most of the precipitation chances south of us, with lesser shower chances over northern Michigan. There are some signals for a potentially stronger shortwave to eject out of the western trough and move toward the Great Lakes over the weekend or early next week, which could bring better chances of rain. Temperatures fairly close to normal for mid September, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 738 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Worsening conditions as rain moves in overnight. Heaviest rain at CIU/PLN, with borderline MVFR/IFR vsbys developing. MVFR cigs/vsbys elsewhere overnight. On Tuesday, rain gradually departs. IFR cigs linger thru midday at CIU, and for a few hours at PLN. MVFR cigs in the morning elsewhere, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Gusty southerly winds increase tonight, becoming sw Tue afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for MIZ016-018-020-024-025-030-031-036-042-088- 095-096-098-099. MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ346>349. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ322.