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KEY MESSAGES

- Milder weather this weekend

- Widespread light to moderate snow returns early Monday morning

- A break in precipitation with slightly cooler temperatures mid week, then chances for widespread accumulating snow creep in near the end of the work week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 202 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Current radar and satellite depict an area of light snow exiting northern lower to the south this morning. Partly cloudy skies will continue to scatter out as drier air moves in. North winds of 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph are being seen as well this morning, with higher gusts hugging the coast.

As higher upper heights build in today, 850 mb temps will be slower to warm. The upper ridge axis will be just to the west after sunset today, keeping 850mb temps around -10C for much of the day. This will keep surface temperatuers in the teens today. As drier air makes its way in this afternoon, most locations will eventually see mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 15 mph for spots.

Winds will go calm tonight and skies should remain mostly clear. WAA should help cap the radiational cooling somewhat, however with ideal conditions for decoupling and widespread snow cover overnight temperatuers will likely fall below 0F over most locations. Typical cold spots could drop as low as -10F into early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 202 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

The upper ridge axis moves over MI Sunday. The warmer airmass will allow high temperatures to reach into the 20s. Most areas will see sunny skies for the first half of the day, before mid to high level clouds move in ahead of the next system.

A surface cyclone and closed upper low will track east over Ontario CAN Sunday, dragging a cold front over MN/WI. Widespread warm sector snow will spread over northwest lower and eastern upper Monday morning ahead of the front. Some lake enhancement is possible near coastal areas with southwest winds. At this time guidance keeps max wind gusts over Lk MI in the 20 to 30 mph range, which makes sense with the 1016 mb surface low over CAN. Ensembles largely agree with the weaker surface cyclone as it tracks north of MI. This is still likely enough to break up some of the ice coverage, however it might not be enough to clear very large areas of the lake. As the front passes through and winds turn northwest, some lake effect snow showers will be possible into early Tuesday. Model soundings do not look overly impressive with the lake effect (CBL just up to 850 mb with the DGZ starting near the top of this layer - resulting in shallow DGZ depths).

Cooler and drier air settles in mid week, with high temperatures forecasted to remain in the high teens to low 20s.

A more robust clipper system is expected to slide down the CAN plains Thursday, returning gusty winds and widespread accumulating snow chances. This system has higher chances for generating strong enough winds to break ice cover up, resulting in lake effect snow into next weekend. Ensemble guidance (NWP/AI) show a decent spread in timing of the clipper and track. Some quickly move it more east, and others slowly drop it south towards MI. This spread is also evident in possible snow amounts.. ranging from 1 to 4 inches for KGLR (not including possible lake effect after). With temperatures changing, also will snow characteristics. High temperatures remain in the 20s for the end of the week, which should lead better snow flake growth processes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Any lingering MVFR cigs will quickly scatter out early this morning, with skies trending mostly sunny/clear heading through today into this evening. Generally light north to northwest winds expected through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.