textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Ongoing widespread historic flooding to continue, with some improvements possible in areas that see little to no rainfall over the next 36 hours.

-Additional shower and thunder potential this afternoon and evening, mainly near Saginaw Bay where localized 1"+ amounts are possible.

-Following a dry break Friday, a larger system is set to move in Friday night through Saturday, bringing more shower / thunder potential to ALL of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.

-Trending sharply colder Saturday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Weak troughing currently lifting over the Great Lakes today will work east with time tonight. Ridging over the Midwest will slide overhead by Friday, building in surface high pressure across the region for a brief time to end the week. Strong, expansive troughing will churn across much of the northern CONUS, including the Great Lakes, through this weekend. Impressive forcing will help deepen a cyclone that is set to track from the central Great Plains into Ontario by late Friday night/Saturday morning. The attendant cold front is expected to swing across the area in the early Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon time frame. High pressure looks to build in behind this system to start next week.

Forecast Details:

Showers across parts of northern lower Michigan will continue to work east over Lake Huron early this afternoon, making way for additional chances for showers and storms down near Saginaw Bay later this afternoon and early evening. These showers/storms bring additional concerns across flood-impacted portions of our southeast counties. While forecast totals range around 0.25" to 0.5", there's potential for localized amounts of 1"+ of additional rainfall in a short time later today should any heavy showers/storms form across this area.

Rain chances end this evening as high pressure builds in, making for a pleasant day and a much-welcomed break from rain chances on Friday. Sunny skies and highs mainly in the 60s and low 70s are in store, except for cooler readings along the Lake Huron shoreline. Unfortunately, shower/storm chances return Friday evening into Saturday ahead of the aforementioned cold front. An additional 0.25" to 0.5" is forecast for many areas of northern Michigan with the potential yet again for amounts of 1"+, especially with any strong storms that track across Lake Michigan from Wisconsin. This portion of the forecast is being closely monitored given ongoing flooding that will last for many days ahead.

As the cold front swings through Saturday, temperatures will turn sharply colder by the afternoon and evening -- down into the 20s and 30s by Saturday night and lasting into Monday. Given gusty northwest winds, wind chills temperatures are expected to drop into the teens for most of the day on Sunday -- something to keep in mind for flood recovery efforts this weekend. Looking into next week, precipitation chances appear low through the majority of the week at this time, which would be a much-needed break across the area should this materialize.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 656 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

LIFR grunge continues this morning with light/vrb winds and fog. Scattered rain showers possible thru midday esp for TVC, MBL, APN with slight improvements to IFR possible as winds turn subtly N/NW this afternoon. Lake breezes possible at APN/TVC. Expect cigs to SCT at CIU and PLN around 16-19z with largely MVFR-VFR conditions this afternoon, and closer to 19-21z for TVC/APN; will be slowest to reach MBL. Things likely to fog in to LIFR conditions again tonight as winds go light/vrb again. Winds will eventually turn around to the S/SE and increase to 5-10kts toward 12z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None.