textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain tonight into Friday.

- Accumulating snow potential returns this weekend.

- A bit cooler with perhaps more snow chances next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 306 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

An anomalously mild airmass remains firmly established across northern MI early this morning and will continue to dominate the sensible weather through the day. Satellite shows a considerable amount of patchy fog, with some locally dense areas. As the day progresses, fog should lessen, but mostly to partly cloudy skies are expected with considerable snowmelt as temperatures climb into the 40s, while areas north of the Straits remain slightly cooler. Conditions through much of the day will be precipitation free, though clouds will steadily increase from southwest to northeast as the next system approaches. By late afternoon/ early evening, the leading edge of deeper moisture looks to begin to reach southwest portions of the area, though any rainfall during this time should stay limited in coverage.

The more impactful portion of the system arrives tonight as surface low pressure lifts northward through the region. Thermal profile continue to support well above freezing temperatures, with forecast low placement favoring much of northern Lower residing within the warm sector. As a result, temperatures are expected to hold steady through the night above freezing, with some locations potentially approaching around 50 degrees by early Friday morning. Increasing moisture transport and large scale ascent will support widespread rainfall overnight, with deep moisture connection. This environment supports rainfall totals exceeding over a half an inch across much of the area by sunrise Friday, with localized higher amounts possible. The combination of rainfall, mild temperatures, and elevated dewpoints will promote rapid snowmelt and enhanced runoff... Rainfall occurring over existing snowpack and icy secondary roads could lead to localized travel impacts.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 306 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

The departure of the surface low on Friday will allow temperatures to trend downward somewhat, though the absence of cold air intrusion will keep readings above normal and continue ongoing snowmelt. Any lingering precipitation should taper off as the day progresses. Forecast attention then shifts quickly toward the next system expected to impact the region Saturday into Sunday. This systems evolution remains closely tied to the degree of interaction between southeastward digging northern stream energy and weaker southern stream forcing lifting out of the southwest CONUS. Guidance continues to show considerable spread/ disagreement on low track an intensity, but supports the potential or accumulating snowfall spreading into portions of northern MI later Saturday into Sunday... with suggested strengthening northern stream influence potentially introducing a lake enhanced component. Temperatures look to trend cooler through the weekend, with highs by Sunday returning to the 20s. Broad scale troughing appears poised to persist into next week, supporting cooler temperatures across the region with prevailing flow looking to favor occasional chances for additional snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Low stratus/LIFR CIGs are expected to linger over northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan this morning before scattering out late this morning/early this afternoon -- leading to a relatively short window of VFR conditions for all TAF sites later today. TVC and MBL have already scattered out and are expected to remain VFR into this evening until the next round of rain and associated low clouds return tonight. Drops to IFR/LIFR VSBYs are likely tonight with the combination of rain and FG/BR with melting snow. Low-level wind shear is also possible at TAF sites, especially this evening and tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ341- 342. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ321.