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KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing snow event tonight.

- Lake effect snow showers in the wake of tonight's system for Wednesday.

- Brief warm up Friday before temperatures crash again for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude ridging encompasses much of North America this afternoon...upstream from an upper trough along the east coast. Omega block/split flow over the eastern Pacific consolidating along the British Columbia/Alberta/U.S. border. Distinctive northern (polar) branch across southern Canada and just clipping the Great Lakes...and a southern (Pacific) branch making up the majority of the low amplitude ridge pattern. A pair of northern branch short wave troughs in close proximity crossing northern Ontario...riding along the cyclonic side of a 160+kt jet streak across the northern Plains. A third northern branch short wave trough was over Saskatchewan. Steep mid level lapse rates and a narrow filament of Pacific moisture accompanying the lead short waves over Ontario...along with a strong low level baroclinic zone (20C temperature difference at 850mb between MPX/YPL) and a 994mb surface low coincident with the upper support with a trailing cold front across North Dakota/Montana.

Upstream short wave troughs will impact the Great Lakes through Wednesday morning; low amplitude long wave troughing left behind across most of North America with a definitive northern branch influence on the Great Lakes through midweek. Upper level trajectories actually emanate from the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska so not exactly polar. This basic configuration leads into the weekend...then we may see more of a Pacific influence for early next week but there may be more cold air lurking...

Surface low tracks along the north shore of Lake Superior tonight... dragging a cold front across Michigan and shifting winds around to the northwest for Wednesday with cold/cyclonic flow. Flow weakens Thursday as high pressure builds in...then another Alberta Clipper spins up in the lee of the Canadian Rockies...tracking into Manitoba Friday morning then passing north of Lake Superior and into northern Quebec Saturday. This clipper will drag a strong cold front across Michigan in the Friday night/Saturday morning time frame.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Ongoing snow event tonight: Bowling ball vorticity center continues to spin eastward to the north of Lake Superior. Already a couple of bands of heavier bursts of snow across eastern Upper during the first part of the day...with the main area of snow spreading across central Upper/northern Wisconsin. Leading edge of the approaching radar returns are still falling from an Ac/As deck and will take some time to saturate the column. This is the only downside to what looks to be a pretty efficient but quick snow event. Leading edge of the snow expected to spread into the northwest Lower shoreline county in the 20-21Z time frame...then across the rest of northern Lower though not likely starting around Saginaw Bay until close to 00Z. But once the snow moves in conditions should deteriorate very quickly with visibilities at or below one-half mile in a lot of spots for ~ 3 hour period before mid level moisture strips out (ending as a period of freezing drizzle/flurries???). Highest accumulations through midnight still expected from the Straits northward (4-8 inches)...2-4 inches north of M-72...and 1-3 inches south. South/southeast winds gusting 25-35mph this afternoon along the US-2 corridor could result in major blowing/drifting snow issues there. As addressed in this morning's update not inclined to adjust geographic footprint of ongoing advisory over northern Lower...we can go the SPS route elsewhere. This can be argued that it is a quasi-snow squall event given the weak stability and frontogenetic forcing. Eventually will transition to west-northwest flow lake convection overnight as 850mb temperatures sink back below -12C.

Lake effect snow showers in the wake of this evening's system: Eventually will transition to west-northwest flow lake convection overnight as 850mb temperatures sink back below -12C. Consensus forecast PoPs not handling this well as all so using SREF PoPs tonight and Wednesday. Chippewa county will be something to keep an eye on with the potential of a strong snow band across Whitefish Bay...inversion heights above 750mb with a maximized DGZ. Can see advisory criteria snow amounts from overnight through Wednesday (3-6 inches)...so may need additional headlines after tonight's warning expires. Snow showers (and my hand editing of PoPs) will continue into Wednesday night but boundary layer flow starts to weaken.

Brief warm up Friday before temperatures crash again for the weekend: Temperatures start to moderate Thursday...as usual the return of warmer air will be accompanied by light snow later Thursday/Thursday night. But Friday will be the one mild day this week with highs in the 40s across northern Lower. This will be followed by plummeting temperatures Saturday morning as a strong cold front plows through the Great Lakes. Not much of a precipitation signal ahead of the front...but think we should see a lake convection response with 850mb temperatures in the -16C to -20C range by Saturday night. Sunday highs will be back in the teens and lower 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 703 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Quick hitting snow will continue to move west to east across northern Michigan over the next few hours, bringing an additional 1- 2" for many areas. Drops to 1/2SM VSBY or less have been observed with this snow -- and are likely underneath heaviest banding over the next 2-3 hours. Otherwise, conditions look to improve to MVFR for most areas after heaviest snow exits east tonight with VFR possible across some areas away from lake effect clouds/snow showers. Winds will continue to turn to west-northwest this evening, continuing through the day tomorrow with sustained winds around 10- 15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts at times.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MIZ016>018-021>024-097>099. Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for MIZ086>088- 095-096. MARINE...None.