textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Brisk with showers into this evening.

- Breezy to windy Sunday with a chance for showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure is currently centered near the Thumb with associated compact area of low pressure making headway toward the eastern Lakes...trailing larger/elongated parent low pressure over the eastern seaboard. Any lingering synoptic forcing/moisture continues to exit this afternoon, but still plenty cold for a lake response to continue. Heading into tonight, upper heights begin to rise and surface high builds in from the north and west, eventually bringing an end to any remaining lake effect showers. Attention then shifts to a wave currently making initial inroads into British Columbia. This wave is expected to trek across Canada early this weekend, crossing Ontario during the day Sunday. Attendant ~998mb sfc low expected to take a similar path. Some uncertainty as to just how far south impacts from that are felt, with latest trends supporting a breezy and perhaps occasionally showery day (for some) on Sunday. Longer range ensembles favor longwave troughing trying to set up across the eastern half of NOAM mid-late next week. If this comes to fruition, cooler and occasionally unsettled would be the rule, with increasing potential for periods of rain and snow.

Forecast Details: Ongoing lake induced showers this afternoon likely to continue for a little while longer into this evening, but gradually diminishing in coverage as any lingering vestiges of synoptic support continue to shift off to the southeast. Still feasible that some of these showers may mix or change over to a bit of snow at times, again primarily across parts of the eastern U.P. and interior higher terrain of northern lower from near GLR to CAD. By the overnight hours, diminishing showers should largely be confined to primarily north flow lake effect areas of both far northwest and northeast lower, with a largely dry forecast in place by Saturday morning. Winds will be diminishing as well tonight with any lingering gustiness by Saturday morning limited to areas directly adjacent to Saginaw Bay/Lake Huron from Harrisville and points south.

Partly to mostly sunny skies return Saturday with near-normal temperatures as highs largely span the 40s for much of northern MI. Some low 50s near Saginaw Bay. Attention then turns to Sunday as aforementioned northern stream wave barrels through Ontario. northern MI should lie on the southern periphery of sfc low pressure with a tightening pressure gradient renewing breezy to gusty winds. Lower confidence on shower coverage, with latest ENS trends favoring the highest PoPs across the eastern U.P., diminishing the farther you head south.

Upper troughing may prevail across the Great Lakes mid-late next week. As was alluded to earlier, if this does in fact prevail, another shot of cooler temperatures with occasional periods of rain/and or snow would be likely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 510 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

More MVFR to IFR producing cigs (IFR mainly at KAPN) into this evening. Still some light showers and areas of drizzle as well. Gradual improvement from northwest to southeast overnight, with more aggressive improvement heading through Saturday. Skies will likely largely clear out heading through Saturday afternoon. North winds will decrease overnight, with winds backing more northwest and west on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.