textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy east winds

- Dry conditions and warm temperatures will linger through much of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Current satellite and 00z upper air analysis depict a rex block influencing much of the CONUS. Deep gulf moisture is being advected northward towards the northern plains ahead of the western upper trough. The upper ridge within the block is reaching all the way to the northern border of CAN, with waves of energy streaming southward towards the northeastern US. Near the surface, a backdoor front is currently pushing through northern lower MI this morning. Current observations depicting gusty conditions (20 to 30 mph) over NE lower near Saginaw Bay as the boundary moves through. Drier air will move through from the east behind it today. Winds will decrease through the morning hours as the center of the surface high creeps towards northern lower MI and gradients relax. Skies will be mostly clear. Temperatuers will be around 3 to 5 degrees cooler than the previous day, with one exception being coastal and coastal adjacent areas of Lk MI. This is due to downsloping from the east winds. Although winds are decreasing through the morning today, breezy winds will remain elevated through the early afternoon hours. This, combined with the dry conditions, will result in elevated fire danger with the worst conditions late morning through the mid afternoon hours over northwest lower.

The upper level block will persist into next week with another upper wave approaching the eastern US Sunday into Monday. Gradients aloft tighten as northern MI is near where the upper trough "bottoms out". Due to warmer air in the mid levels, mixing heights will rise to around 2 to 4 kft Sunday afternoon. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph could become more frequent during the later afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm a few degrees as the drier airmass remains in place. Another day of high fire danger is likely for Sunday afternoon.

Monday, the axis of the trough will move through and lead to more consistent gusts of 15 to 25 mph in spots. Dry air will likely be reinforced behind another front, with temperatuers over NE lower possibly cooling by a few degrees. Another afternoon of high fire danger is possible Monday, with the potential of conditions being widespread and lasting for a longer duration.

The block starts to break down Tuesday as the upper ridge axis reaches MI by Wednesday. Light winds and warm to hot temperatures will be likely mid to late next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue across northern Michigan through the issuance period. East winds will increase to 5-10 kts this morning through this afternoon with gusts to around 15 kts possible. Calm winds are anticipated tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.