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KEY MESSAGES

-Seasonably cold temperatures build today through tonight.

-Clipper System Tracks through the Great Lakes region Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Several inches of accumulating snow remain possible.

-Overall quiet and mild weather expected the remainder of the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Surface low pressure over the Ontario Peninsula will break down, moving whatever energy remains into the Nor'easter currently riding up the east coast. A weak frontal boundary will continue to progress southward today, resulting in cP air returning to the Great Lakes through the midweek. Conditions remain quiet today through Tuesday morning as midlevel shortwave ridging supports high pressure across the CWA. Chances of snowfall return this Tuesday as an Alberta clipper tracks through Michigan.

Latest ensembles depict the midlevel jet maxima over the U.S. breaking down into a split flow pattern, causing the baroclinic zone to shift southward this Wednesday. This will support somewhat mild surface pattern across the Great Lakes region through the remainder of the week as waves of energy track over the Northwoods. Slight chances of precip will remain in the forecast at times, but no large scale or impactful weather is expected through the end of the week (after Tuesday).

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Seasonably cold temperatures build today through tonight... Cold air advection will continue to pull Canadian air from the north today behind a weak frontal boundary. As a result, widespread daily high temperatures will remain several degrees below climatological normal. The majority of the CWA can expect highs in the teens before dropping to the single digits/near zero overnight tonight. Latest high-res guidance depicts more cloud cover than yesterday's forecast, meaning overnight lows will fall solely from cold air advection rather than radiational cooling processes.

-Clipper System Tracks through the Great Lakes region Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Several inches of accumulating snow remain possible... Latest guidance depicts a faster tracking system which is pretty conducive of a run-of-the-mill clipper. Warm air advection will produce a light line of snow moving across the CWA as early as Tuesday morning, but widespread moderate to heavy snow showers spread early Tuesday evening. The dynamics of this system remain somewhat ideal, featuring a surge of moisture through the low and midlevel's, combined with decent midlevel lapse rates that could drive convective precipitation. Highest probabilities of snowfall remain between 3-6 inches for most locations north of M-72. However, WAA-driven southerly wind gusts in the upper 20s (kts) may support some lake enhancement along the northern portions of Lake Michigan and Huron, pushing accumulations in the range of Winter Storm Warning criteria. In particular along US-2 where it is susceptible to heavy drifting and blowing snow.

-Overall quiet and mild weather expected the remainder of the week... Probabilities of precip remain low beyond Wednesday as the southerly shift of the baroclinic zone keeps energy south of Michigan. Long range guidance depicts another clipper riding across Canada north of Lake Superior, extending some scattered showers into the upper peninsula Friday night. Too early to depict impacts at this moment as mild low-level temperatures introduce concerns for some mixed precip, but moisture associated with this system remains relatively starved and will keep QPF low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 606 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

MVFR CIGs through the morning as -SHSN linger as well. Potential for breaks in clouds this afternoon, so will likely see an inconsistent flipping between MVFR and VFR into the afternoon and this evening. Gusty N to NNW winds prevail, sometimes breaching 20kts. Overnight, winds taper and CIGs again likely hover low end VFR to marginal MVFR. Winds flip E at CIU late and SSE to S elsewhere, but set to remain light through the end of the forecast period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.