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KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing historic flooding continues with another round of showers/storms tonight into early Saturday.

- Trending sharply colder Saturday through Sunday with snow shower chances. Minor snow accumulation possible in spots.

- Latest trends continue to favor overall much drier weather next week with seasonable temperatures. Improvement to ongoing flooding anticipated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level ridging and attendant high pressure that crossed the area early this morning are now departing downstream this afternoon. Focus turns to incoming shower/storm chances tonight as upstream low pressure drifts across the upper MS Valley, driving a cold front across northern MI Saturday morning. Much colder/drier air to filter in behind this cold front during the day Saturday, but may end up being cold enough to drum up some additional (primarily) snow showers by later Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Beyond the weekend, an overall period of much-needed drier weather looks to be on tap for much of next week amid temperatures rebounding back to seasonable levels.

Forecast Details:

Showers/storms tonight-early Saturday: Primary attention through the forecast period revolves around incoming shower/storm chances tonight, resultant locally heavy rain and continued flooding concerns. Upstream convective response should be vigorous over parts or WI/northern IL this afternoon. By the time this reaches northern MI later this evening/overnight, instability should be waning significantly, although an amplifying LLJ likely to aid in keeping at least some fumes of instability locally. Latest trends continue to support a decaying MCS surging across the region from west to east. With the expected downtrend in intensity expected, the best shot for any maintenance of strong-severe storms largely lies across far northwest lower MI (mainly west of US-131. Primarily a gusty/strong outflow wind threat.

Bigger concern, of course, revolves around locally heavy rainfall. Good news is the wave of steadiest/heaviest showers and embedded storms should be pretty quick moving. That said, given aforementioned weakening trend above, the heaviest QPF still progged to fall across parts of northwest lower, generally 0.50 - 0.75" with locally higher amounts of 1"+ possible under any convection. Farther east, toward the I-75 corridor, 0.30-0.60" favored...tapering to largely 0.25" or less nearest the Lake Huron shoreline (again, locally higher amounts possible for all of northern MI where convection is realized). Over the eastern U.P., lesser confidence prevails in just how widespread/numerous showers become. As the previous forecaster mentioned, potential exists for locally heavier rainfall totals given potential for more stratiform rain structure aided by embedded mesolow deformation. Will certainly be worth monitoring this area as well for flooding concerns given widespread snowpack still exists (albeit decreasing, ANJ down to 4" this morning). For areas that realize higher end rainfall totals tonight, expecting ongoing flooding issues to be exacerbated.

Turning colder Saturday-Sunday: Frontal boundary crosses northern MI Saturday morning, with a fairly quick drying/cooling trend anticipated on the heels of increasingly breezy northwest winds. By midday Saturday, expect eastern upper, northwest and north-central lower's temperatures to be down into the mid-upper 30s with 50s still over far northeast lower. Area-wide in the 30s and low 40s by mid-late afternoon. Some diurnally driven snow showers possible Saturday as well, which likely won't amount to much more than additional nuisance moisture and little to no snow accum. expected. Additional isolated to scattered lake induced snow showers likely linger at times Saturday night - Sunday. Some minor accumulation possible across parts of northwest lower and the eastern U.P., but again with little in the way of additional QPF. Saturday's wind chills progged to fall into the 20s and low 30s for much of the area -- certainly something to consider for those working outdoors in flood recovery efforts. Wind chills fall into the upper teens and low 20s for much of Saturday night through Sunday.

Trending drier for much of next week: Latest longer range trends support drier conditions prevailing for much of next week with surface high pressure dominating much of the time frame. That said, keeping an eye on a couple of systems. The first Monday night/ Tuesday passing by well to our north. Current confidence is in a solution that brings nothing more than a rogue sprinkle/shower to northern MI with this system as steadier precip stayed situated well to our north. Late next week/beyond the forecast period, trends support a more active pattern across the middle of the country, potentially with renewed precip chances locally. Of course, lots of uncertainty around that given it's 7+ days away.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions at all sites this morning with skies generally BKN250 and SE winds of 5 to 13kt with occasional G15 to 20kts. A FROPA will move through the after 06z tonight, brining widespread MVFR/IFR cigs and vis. Times of -RA and TSRA will be possible for KMBL/KTVC/KPLN. LL WS of 35kts will be seen at all terminals due to a LLJ of around 45kts at 2kft after 04z. Winds turn west near the end of the period with conditions quickly improving.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.