textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow continues this evening and tonight, most impactful across Kalkaska county and vicinity.

- Very cold air temperatures and wind chills tonight and Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave on the southern periphery of an upper low to the north across Ontario will move southeastward this evening, focusing across southern portions of MI. Sfc low and subsequent cold front move through northern MI as well, resulting in an even colder airmass tonight across the area, regardless of whether wind chill or air temperature. Wind direction will shift to the NNW, and thus more broader light snows will focus across the Kalkaska - GTB region resulting in accumulating snows across this localized region. Northwest flow will keep marginal lake effect near the Lake MI coast near and south of the Leelanau Peninsula, with low visibility the main concern.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Accumulating Snow:

Lake snow showers this afternoon will give way to a broader area of snow this evening, shifting to NNW lake effect. A very narrow area of enhanced snowfall will be possible, centering around Kalk county, and bleeding northwest to some extent into GT county, and far southwest Antrim county and vicinity. Accumulating snow for a period along with low visibility will make for slick travel this evening and tonight across that area, with 2-4" of snow, locally higher. Could there be a scenario where Kalkaska gets ~>4-5" if the DGZ stays within the boundary layer and convergence remains for a long enough period? Certainly, but that area of concern is so narrow and so localized a product will not be issued at this time. Will certainly hint at it in the DSS and graphics products, and if it snows 10", so be it.

Cold Temperatures:

As is typical with some of the cold air intrusions, we'll be dealing with how quickly the winds die off and how low the air temps dip. Through a combination of the two, will likely see air temps/wind chills flirting with the -15 to -20F range. Notoriously sheltered locations across the interior have the best chance for negative teens and lower, with any light breeze elsewhere resulting in wind chills -15 and lower. Regardless, Extreme Cold Watch will be upgraded to a Cold Weather Advisory, and we'll deal with the cold Thursday night during the subsequent shifts.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

East to west oriented trough and subsequent deformation will drift south across northern Michigan on Friday. Not a ton of moisture or precipitation with this feature, just some lingering lake snows near lake Michigan as winds turn northerly. Biggest concern will be the cold Thursday night into early Friday as temps plunge again into the ~ -10 to -20 range with even colder wind chills across the area.

The weekend will be pretty uneventful with dry conditions largely and moderating temperatures. By Sunday, temps in the 20s are likely along with areas of sunshine. Next feature will dig into the region early next week leading to another chance for snow, largely light in accumulations. Progged temps at this time look to remain more seasonable next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Winds turn north this evening resulting in ongoing lake effect SN to spread southward tonight and lift cloud cover at KPLN and KCIU. VFR CIG's and VSBY's are expected at these sites through the remainder of the TAF period while MVFR and periodic IFR VSBY's continue at KTVC and KMBL overnight into Wednesday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-032>036-086>088- 095>097-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ086. MARINE...None.