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KEY MESSAGES

-Isolated showers track across the U.P this evening.

-High pressure continues dry weather conditions with temperatures progressively increasing through Tuesday.

-Rain chances return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Midlevel longwave ridging remains positioned over the North American High Plains today continuing the process of warm southwestern air advecting into the majority of the county. While most areas can expect to remain dry through the end of the week, slight chances of showers remain in the forecast tonight as an embedded low-level trough provides enough energy to produce a few showers and thunderstorms for the Lake Superior Region.

Subsequent subsidence aloft will support surface high pressure across the Great Lakes Region for the next several days with temperatures gradually increasing through Tuesday. Only chance of widespread active weather across the Northwoods remains at the end of the forecast period from troughing over Hudson Bay progressing southward. Long-range ensembles struggle with a solution regarding how far south this axis shifts, but probabilities for beneficial rainfall for northern Michigan remain ideal next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Today: Cloud cover will slightly increase this afternoon from the north due to the aforementioned trough over the Lake Superior Region. Most areas will observe partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid/upper 80s today. However, increasing afternoon instability over Lake Superior and the central U.P. will support storms moving into the CWA from the northwest. Even with discrete cells moving into a more stable environment, enough momentum will allow a few localized areas of eastern upper and locations near the Michigan shorelines to observe light rainfall.

Monday through Thursday: The main focus for the forecast remains on Monday and Tuesday due to the well-advertised, near record-breaking heat. Previously mentioned thermal ridging will continue to progress its axis eastward this week and support warm, dry air moving into the region. Monday and Tuesday remain the hottest days with H8 temperatures reaching the mid 20s. Surface highs will be in the mid 90s for most locations this Monday followed by upper 90s this Tuesday, with even a few areas observing afternoon temps breaking 100 degrees near Saginaw Bay. Troughing from the north slowly progresses southward and provides a northerly air mass influence Wednesday and Thursday, causing temperatures to return to near climatological normals.

Friday through Sunday outlook: Long-range ensembles depict midlevel closed low pressure currently over northern Hudson Bay shifting southeast over Ontario this weekend. Troughing begins to influence the Great Lakes Region this weekend with chances of somewhat active weather driven by embedded waves. No widespread or heavy precipitation is expected, but many are likely to observe some beneficial rainfall after this week's dry period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 609 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions expected with just some high based cu and passing patches of cirrus. May see an isolated shower/storm develop late today into tonight, but confidence of this occurring remains very low. If storms do develop, brief gusty winds with them is possible. Otherwise, winds should remain light.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.