textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and storms today; locally heavy rainfall in excess of an inch is possible near Saginaw Bay in particular.

- Rain/storms return early next week.

- Cooler weather ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Upper level pattern is an amplified mess...dominated most notably by broad upper troughing over central North America and strong northerly flow into the PacNW, with sharp ridging in the northern stream over Ontario/Upper Great Lakes getting pinched between former feature...and downstream Rex Block off eastern Canada. Southern stream is also convoluted...with 100+kt zonal subtropical jet across the SW US, which splits across the Gulf coast, thanks to influence of ridging to the north...but troughing over the Gulf waters. At the surface...tightly-wound, occluded 989mb surface low over southern Manitoba is the main event, with a triple point near the border with MN and cold front stretching down through the Central Plains to OK, where it turns into a dryline down into TX; a cold front stretches from eastern Nebraska back into the panhandle of ID. Stationary boundary with this system extends from northern MN through central MI and into the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure off the southeastern US aiding in excellent return flow along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front through the MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. Tight thermal gradient across the central portion of the country as well...with sub-zero 850mb temps wrapping into the Dakotas behind the low...and 12C 850mb temps across WI ahead of it; warmer thermal gradient across the southern end of the boundary across OK/TX. Not surprisingly...looking at a broad area of convective activity stretching from OK up through MN into western Ontario just to our west. Warm and summer-like yesterday across northern Michigan, with some lake breeze collisions leading to agitated cu development in the afternoon hours amid a somewhat unstable profile, per the 0z/24 sounding.

Expect upstream convection (or at least, what's left of it) to work its way into the region this morning...slowly exiting with time later this afternoon into this evening. Think conditions could stay a little on the dreary/grungy and cool side in its wake up here...as ridge axis gets pinched off to our north...leaving flow a bit more nebulous for tonight into Saturday. Saturday looks like a cool day with easterly flow behind an inverted trough axis pivoting toward Lake Michigan. Some moisture upstream across the Upper MS Valley late Saturday as a lobe pivots across MN...but think the bulk of the activity with this will remain to our northwest. Winds should pick up Sunday night into Monday ahead of a dynamic surface low developing over the central US in response to a punch of PV...with increasing chances for rain and storms Monday into Tuesday across the Midwest, including Northern Michigan. Behind this feature...appears we could have another shot of at least seasonable, if not even seasonably cool, weather for the middle of next week on zonal Pacific/northern Pacific flow. Beyond this...guidance points toward longwave ridge axis trying to strengthen over the West Coast, which signals some potential for cooler weather to settle into the Upper Midwest.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/storms today...Think one of the rain concerns today is that things will be relatively slow to move, potentially remaining focused over some general area near/along an inverted trough/occluded front that should stretch over the area today. This swath, generally from Little Traverse Bay (ish) to Saginaw Bay, has the most likely shot at highest rainfall totals, generally in the realm of 0.25 to 0.5-inch; this swath does scrape parts of eastern Emmet and southern Cheboygan counties for hydro purposes. Highest totals (localized 1-2in) will likely depend on embedded convective elements (on top of potentially slow-moving cells)...noting some hourly totals upstream attm around 0.50 under said conditions. Appears most likely shot at this idea will be across our SE (as usual) where it could warm enough for surface based instability to develop...though some of the more aggressive guidance suggests there could be a hotpot in the vicinity of Charlevoix county/Boyne/East Jordan. Greatest rainfall accumulations should be around midday into this afternoon. Some question as to how quickly moisture strips out today as well, which, if it occurs quicker, could reduce stratiform efficiency but potentially boost convective instability to squeeze out a little more of the moisture in this anomalously moist airmass (pwats above 1-in).

As for storms...nothing is outright screaming at me tonight for anything really beyond run-of-the-mill thunder. This being said...not sure that I like the idea of moist low-levels and a few hundred joules or so of even surface-based cape in the presence of a low/warm front/inverted trough today...has me a little concerned there could be some potential for a spin-up near and south of M-55/M- 72 this afternoon especially, depending on how far north that boundary ends up setting up.

Rain/storm potential Monday/Tuesday...Increasing return flow straight off the Gulf Monday should aid in convective development across the MS Valley and perhaps as far north as the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, depending on how far north the warm air gets. Attm...signals point toward our area being on the cooler side of the front, which suggests we could have a better shot at more widespread rainfall compared to a complex of storms...though thunder is certainly on the table, given the dynamic setup expected. Medium range prob guidance has low-end chances for an inch, so will need to monitor this for hydro purposes.

Cooler temps ahead...temperatures look to turn more seasonable in the coming days (starting as early as Saturday/Saturday night), which brings the threat of frost/freeze back into play. Initially for Saturday night, not sure that we will be deep enough into the growing season for temperatures around freezing to be a major concern...though any tender annuals already purchased from nurseries would certainly be at risk. With the potential for troughing to try to settle into the Upper Midwest for late in the period and beyond (CPC highlighting reasonably strong signals for below-normal temps going into early May)...will certainly need to monitor things closely, especially for next week, as we should continue to accumulate growing degree days despite the cooler weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Anticipating clouds to continue increasing through the morning, but should hold to about 7,000ft CIGs before falling into MVFR later in the afternoon. RA and SHRA increase in coverage late this morning into the afternoon, which may lead to temporary increases in wind and decreases in CIGs and VSBYs. Activity should slowly cross the region from west to east through this evening. Any SHRA or TSRA should clear out later this evening, but will be replaced by a low cloud deck along with BR / FG potential accompanying sub 1,000ft CIGs. As such, will likely see IFR to even LIFR prevailing at most sites into Friday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ342. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-322.