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KEY MESSAGES

- Leftover showers/drizzle diminishes this morning.

- Breezy to windy Sunday with a chance for showers in the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Slow-moving 500mb closed low is over far southern Ontario, with an associated surface low just to the north. The upper low will start to eject a little faster eastward this weekend, while the surface low gets fully absorbed into the circulation around a coastal New England low. Brief shortwave ridging arrives this evening, in advance of another potent piece of energy crossing southern Canada.

Some showers continue to impact parts of ne lower MI, south of APN. These will slowly pivot and exit east this morning. The mid and upper levels have otherwise dried out nicely, but plentiful low-level moisture is resulting in fairly widespread stratus and patchy drizzle. There are breaks in the low clouds in parts of eastern upper MI, and more substantial clearing to our west over western upper MI and most of WI. Lake effect contributions will make clouds more difficult to erode here. But still expect cloud cover to decrease across northern MI, especially this afternoon. Leftover DZ will also erode going thru this morning.

Upstream upper trof is progged to dig a little more aggressively into the northern lakes region Sunday. The surface low passes well north of Lakes Superior and Huron. But the upper trof and associated colder temps aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates, and provide forcing to take advantage of this. An associated chance for showers reaches the eastern UP at around midday, and chance to likely pops expands se-ward across most of northern MI in the afternoon and evening. Only places sw of TVC stay pop-free.

Upper ridging builds in from the sw for Monday, lasting a little longer than tonights, but only a little. Quiet and mild wx for early in the work week. Fast wnw flow aloft is re-esablished behind that ridge, though the most active storm track is initially to our north. A prominent digging upper trof is more likely mid- to late-week, and pops drift higher by then. Guidance max temps for Sun-Monday do not rebound as fast or as far as they did previously, and Tue is now the warmest day upcoming for many. Temps tumble again late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

MVFR CIGs will continue to wane from west to east through the afternoon and evening hours, with everyone becoming VFR roughly by 21-00Z. Winds aloft increase tonight, with 30 to 35KTS at 2kft. With this increase aloft, winds should increase at the surface to some extent, mainly across northwest lower MI. Thus, there could be a little low end wind shear PLN and APN, but most confident in APN where sfc winds will be lighter tonight. Sfc winds pick up for everyone during the morning and midday hours on Sunday, with 10-15G25KTs possible. Some showers build in later in the day as well with CIGs slowly lowering back to low VFR to MVFR.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.