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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds and cool temperatures continue Monday with dry weather expected through the first half of the week.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday/Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive late-summer troughing will continue to churn over the Great Lakes tonight as it eventually lifts northeast early this week. The associated surface cyclone centered along the Ontario/Quebec border will weaken with time as the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked, cutting off favorable advections for support. Meanwhile, ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains will help build surface high pressure across the region through the first half of the week. Troughing eventually works back overhead during the second half of the week, likely bringing another system across the Great Lakes in the late Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.

Forecast Details:

Fall-feeling weather across the area today with breezy winds and cool temperatures will continue into Monday. While afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer on Monday, readings are still expected to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area -- around 5 degrees cooler than late-August averages. Northwest winds between 10- 20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph will persist this afternoon and continue Monday as well, although slightly less windy conditions are anticipated tomorrow. Isolated to scattered light lake enhanced rain showers today are also expected to draw to a close for most areas later this evening and tonight as an increasingly hostile environment moves in as aforementioned high pressure builds. The exception will be across the far eastern U.P./Lake Huron shoreline tonight into early Monday morning as rain looks to linger on the backside of the system as it exits. Cannot completely rule out a few showers Monday, but the first half of the week is expected to be dry across northern Michigan.

Our next chances for rain will return late Wednesday and Thursday as troughing digs back into the Great Lakes. Timing appears to be delayed some from previous forecast cycles, potentially keeping most of Wednesday dry. That said, steadier rain chances appear increasingly likely in the front end of this system late Wednesday/early Thursday with additional rain showers possible through late Thursday on the backside of the departing system. Otherwise, highs will warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by Tuesday with temperatures set to cool back into the upper 60s and 70s during the second half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Light RA will spread across KCIU, and KAPN this evening along with MVFR CIG development while KPLN, KTVC, and KMBL has cloud cover remaining primarily VFR. NNW winds are expected to remain gusty throughout the entirety of the TAF period, but will likely diminish Monday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016- 018-020-021-024>026-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.