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KEY MESSAGES

- High travel impact lake effect snow event is expected for parts of northern Michigan Wednesday evening into Friday. High snowfall amounts and strong winds are expected to bring significant drops in visibility and hazardous travel at times -- especially Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning.

- Otherwise mild temperatures early this week with rain chances into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 335 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide east of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes this evening, getting replaced by a lifting shortwave tonight. A second, much stronger trough will dig from the Pacific Northwest and over the Great Plains on Tuesday. This feature will provide strong divergence aloft to begin deepening a broad cyclone currently over the southern Great Plains as it works northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday night.

Forecast Details:

Relatively weak warm advection/low-level convergence will help drive a band of rain that looks to set up across far northern lower Michigan and the eastern U.P. this evening and tonight. This band is expected to gradually work its way north across the eastern U.P. on Tuesday as the warm front lifts away from the area. Additional light rain/drizzle chances look to work into northern lower Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts through the period are expected to stay below 0.25" for most areas. Otherwise, southerly low-level flow will keep a mild airmass in place early this week with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s for most through Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 335 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Holiday Lake Effect Snow and Winds (Wednesday - Friday):

Utmost forecast concern remains on the expected high-impact lake effect snow event set to target portions of northern Michigan in the Wednesday afternoon - Friday timeframe. An impressive trough will punch across the region Wednesday and Thursday, providing strong ascent that will help quickly deepen a cyclone as it treks across the northern half of the state and into Ontario/Quebec.

Wednesday will begin with rain chances across the area on the front side of the system with the potential for a lull in precip during the late morning/early afternoon timeframe for some. A transition to snow is expected Wednesday afternoon/evening, resulting in a quick degradation of travel conditions across much of northwest lower Michigan. The transition to snow is expected to take place later Wednesday night across the eastern U.P. as the system takes time to move east of the area.

As lake effect snow sets in Wednesday night, snow showers are likely to pop across a large area of northern Michigan with an initial cellular convective evolution with large amounts of over lake instability and strong winds. With time, more dominant northwest winds and lack of diurnal component should help organize lake effect into a few main bands by Thanksgiving morning. This late Wednesday night/Thanksgiving morning timeframe will likely be the period of worst conditions across the area. Strong wind gusts of 30- 45+ mph will combine with the heaviest lake effect snow -- potentially 1-2" per hour or higher under the strongest bands -- to bring quick accumulations on roads, localized whiteout conditions at times, and hazardous holiday travel. Most significant blowing snow and drops in visibility are most likely across exposed north-south oriented roads given northwest winds -- bringing stretches of US-131 and even I-75 into focus. Strong winds will also push lake effect bands far inland, even into southeast portions of the CWA.

As far as amounts, the most likely area for 8" or more will be portions of interior Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, and Crawford counties as heaviest lake effect banding is currently expected here -- and is highlighted by the Winter Storm Watch. Several inches of snow is anticipated across a wide area of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan and, along with aforementioned strong winds, impactful holiday travel for many away from the heaviest snowfall. Lake effect snow intensity will gradually decrease with time late Thanksgiving day with chances continuing through Friday. Stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates.

This Weekend (Saturday - Sunday):

After lake effect snow tapers off on Friday, a brief break in precip appears to be in store before additional chances make a return to the region over the weekend. Ridging on the backside of the departing system should keep northern Michigan mostly dry into Saturday before expansive troughing looks to pivot across the heart of the continent, bringing chances for snow back to the Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend. Highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s with lows in the teens and 20s are currently anticipated through the end of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions will trend MVFR to IFR tonight as rain chances increase, especially across northern terminals. Breezy southwest winds (occasional gusts 20-25 knots) will decrease through the evening becoming light tonight into Tuesday morning as they gain more of an easterly component.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for MIZ021-022-027-028-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for LSZ321-322.