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KEY MESSAGES

-Near freezing overnight temperatures will lead to patchy frost development across the northern lower.

-Seasonably cool temperatures continue this week with periodic rain and frost/freeze chances through the entirety of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Surface conditions remain dry today as a brief midlevel ridge builds over the Great Lakes region. Mostly clear skies are expected today through this evening combined with a cool Canadian cP influence, leading to frost developing during the early overnight hours before warm air advection begins to build Sunday morning. Large scale 500mb closed low pressure currently centered over the Ontario/Quebec border will continue to influence the northwoods as embedded waves of energy drag across the Great Lakes region through the remainder of the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Frost development this evening/tonight... The aforementioned low amplitude ridge over the Midwest today will lead to mostly clear skies and dry weather. H8 temperatures below freezing will mix down to the surface this afternoon, keeping high temperatures in the upper 40s via adiabatic heating processes. Only concern with the forecast in terms of impactful weather through the first 24 hours remains the potential frost development this evening. Clear skies will allow efficient radiational cooling to drop temperatures to the mid/low 30s before midnight. Cloud cover then builds as warm air advection begins to warm Northern Michigan to the low 40s by 12Z Sunday. Most likely places for frost development remain the typically cooler locales of higher terrain interior Northern Lower Peninsula.

Seasonably cool temperatures with periodic precipitation chances next week... The first round of light rainfall returns Sunday as a weak vorticity maximum over Northern Ontario extends moisture into the Great Lakes Region. Light precipitation will spread across the CWA with totals of only a tenth of an inch or less of liquid by Sunday night. Additional QPF remains on Tuesday as another 500mb shortwave digs across the northern plains through the Great Lakes region. Latest guidance depicts frontal development directly over the CWA, keeping the highest probabilities of 24hr rainfall between 0.10 and 0.25 with locally higher amounts if convection is able to develop. Lingering low-level moisture behind the front will continue to remain over Northern Michigan as the aforementioned trough axis is positioned directly over Michigan. Light rain/drizzle will likely remain in the forecast through midweek next week as this cool and cloudy pattern continues into early May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 637 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Northwest winds today shift out of the southwest tonight and become a touch breezy across parts of northwest lower MI by Sunday morning. While a few rain showers will be possible very late tonight (more so on Sunday), confidence is too low to include in the tail end of the TAF at this time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-099. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ098. MARINE...None.