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KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty west winds will gradually diminish this evening and tonight

- A pattern change will begin Wednesday, ushering in below normal temperatures, more clouds, and times of light rain/snow showers

- High confidence (+70% chances) for widespread below freezing overnight lows starting Wed night and lasting through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current surface observations depict a ~993mb low centered over central Ontario CAN this afternoon. With an 8mb N/S gradient over the state, strong west winds have continued into the afternoon hours. Lingering surface instability has allowed stronger gusts to mix down to the surface as well, with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 mph seen as well in these surface observations. An upper jet wave is moving through the Great Lakes region, and will continue to carry the surface cyclone towards the northeast this evening. Gradients will relax and winds will gradually weaken tonight. Surface high pressure will build in as winds turn north, brining colder air over most spots.

Depending on how quickly the winds diminish, localized spots over northern lower could see overnight lows dip into the low to mid 30s. The best chances for freezing temperatures tonight will be over eastern upper, closer to the source of the colder surface airmass. It will likely take a little longer to shove all the near surface moisture over northern lower to the south, which also creates some uncertainty for how cold temperatures will be here tonight. All in all, the higher hills of northern lower and areas near the tip of the mitt could see local spots dip into the low 30s, but should remain in the mid to high 30s tonight. Frost will be a concern for locations where temperatures creep into the mid 30s or lower. A good percentage of northern lower has 50 degree GDD's around 125, which is when we would start to see impacts from frost on vegetation. Vegetation near M-32 has the best chance tonight for the overlap of near or above 125 GDD days at 50 degrees and non zero chances for times of temperatures in the mid 30s tonight (better chances for frost formation).

Afternoon satellite shows convective activity over the central plains, and with a jet stream pointed towards southern MI, some convective debris will likely move over northern MI early Wednesday. Cloud cover will persist through the night tonight and into the day on Wednesday. Slight chances for decaying shower activity exists over areas adjacent to Saginaw Bay Wednesday morning. During the day on Wednesday the larger pattern will begin to change. An upper closed low will descend on the Great Lakes region, brining wrapped up continental moisture and colder temperatures through the column. Brisk north winds will keep high temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s.

Temperatuers will remain cold and winds brisk in the afternoon hours for Thursday and Friday as the upper closed low very slowly slides to the eastern Great Lakes by the weekend. At this time, the coldest temperatures aloft will be Thursday into Friday, which would result in chances for some light lake effect showers. Some spots could see a rain/snow mix, and if the showers linger into the night it would transition to mostly snow. This will likely not be in the form of bands (wind fields are not strong/organized enough), but isolated cells that will wander over northern MI. Any accumulations will remain light.

With the colder airmass continually being reinforced through the end of the work week, there is high confidence in widespread interior locations seeing overnight temperatures dip near or below freezing starting Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Some interior spots could see temperatures as low as the low to mid 20s. If you have plants that are budding and susceptible to colder temperatures, make sure to cover them these night.

By Sunday, the upper closed low will stop influencing the area and allow for temperatures to start a gradual warming trend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Lingering showers have largely moved out of the region for most sites with LIFR to MVFR gradually scouring out (longer for CIU). VFR conditions expected tonight into Wednesday with gusty southwest winds turning northwest tonight and becoming light. Northwest winds will increase Wednesday with gusts 10-20 knots possible by the afternoon (highest likely at TVC and CIU).

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-322.