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KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog will linger until late morning

- Slight chances for rain showers Sunday over eastern upper, lower chances for northern lower

- Cooler Temperatures Monday and Tuesday, then rain chances mid to late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Current satellite and surface observations depict patchy dense fog forming in spots over northern lower, as well as stratus and fog persisting over eastern upper. Mid to high level clouds are moving up and over an upper ridge (axis centered on WI this morning). These clouds are approaching Lk MI, and will continue to the east today. Near the surface, KAPX VAD profiler shows 10 to 15kts of SE winds around a couple hundred feet up. These relatively light, but more persistent winds have been keeping fog formation confined to the lower spots for northern lower while the higher hills remain mostly clear. The mid to high clouds will also work to keep widespread fog and stratus out of NW lower. As a more mature stratus/fog deck forms near the northern Saginaw Bay region and up to Thunder Bay, this will likely drift to the west, bringing dense fog to the interior higher hills of northern lower by sunrise. Patchy low stratus and fog will linger through the late morning, with visibilities improving by noon.

Today, the upper ridge axis will move over northern MI. At the same time, WAA over the northern plains will approach MI, however the CWA will likely remain on the fringes. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday (reaching into the 60s again), with light south winds. The larger upper pattern begins to shift Sunday, with a shortwave trough flattening the upper ridge towards the Ohio River Valley. A cold front will gradually move across the state from NW to SE Sunday. Chances for weak rain showers exist over eastern upper starting Sunday morning. These chances drift south over northern lower later Sunday, with very low chances for anything over a tenth of an inch. A wide temperature gradient will exist Sunday as cooler air keeps high temperatures in the upper 50s for much of eastern upper, with low 70s expected for much of northern lower which will see lighter southwest winds for most of the day.

Sunday night into Monday, a 1035mb surface high will continue to seep over northern MI. High temperatures will remain in the 40s and 50s over all of northern MI with mostly cloudy skies. A couple short waves will likely miss northern MI to the north during this time, however chances for a shortwave to move over northern MI increase for the later half of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 608 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Currently a mixed bag of conditions due to areas of FG/BR over NE lower and areas of SKC over NW lower. FG and low stratus over KAPN/KCIU/KPLN will lift and scatter after 14z, with all terminals becoming VFR by 16z. S/SW winds will gradually strengthen, becoming 8 to 10kts with G15 to 20kts after 18z. Skies will be BKN-OVC AOA 15 kft. A low chance exists for FG/BR formation at terminals after 06z.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ018-023- 024-028>030-034>036-041-042. MARINE...None.