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KEY MESSAGES

- A few more showers Sunday

- Summer-like temperatures for Memorial Day

- Warm into mid-week, with cooler temperatures during the end of the week

- Minimal rain chances next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave trough and weak surface reflection in the process of rotating northeast across lower Michigan early this afternoon. While most substantial system attendant moisture advection and heaviest rain are well removed to our southeast, broad deformation within a marginally moist mid level environment did manage to kick off a few mostly light showers across parts of northern lower Michigan this morning. Combination of clouds and those earlier showers are keeping temperatures a bit below normal...especially so across northeast lower Michigan as gusty east winds bring in Lake Huron modified air. Another much more robust shortwave currently rotating north into the prairie lands of southern Canada, with showers tied to that wave remaining well upstream.

Lead wave will continue to rotate off to our northeast tonight, replaced by upstream troughing on Sunday. Trends continue to favor the development of a rather strong central NOAM centered omega block heading through next week, shunting all deep moisture off to our south and east with time. This definitely favors a rather lengthly period of rather inactive weather across the region, along with variable temperatures as ridge/trough interface goes through longitudinal adjustments with passing embedded waves within northeast NOAM centered trough portion of this omega block.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower evolution tonight and Sunday followed by mostly temperature trend concerns next week.

Details:

Departure of lead wave ends shower chances as we head through tonight. Arrival of upstream troughing and weak low level convergence axis renews shower chances on Sunday...helped along by lake breeze driven convergence zones and the development of some weak diurnally-driven instability. Lack of deeper moisture/forcing and instability will limit both shower coverage and intensity, with most areas and much of the time remaining dry. Now well advertised warming trend kicks off Sunday, with highs in the 60s to middle 70s. While Memorial day does look warmer, some questions starting to arise to both on just how warm we become and possible isolated shower chances. Guidance beginning to hone in on the possibility of a passing weak wave within generally building mid/upper level heights. This would not only potentially kick off a few diurnally supported showers, but also raise concerns with cloud cover keeping temperatures a bit cooler than currently advertised. Definitely don't think showers will become significant, and again still expecting temperatures to run several degrees above normal.

Questions for the remainder of extended center on placement of that ridge/trough interface within that maturing omega block. Initially it appears apex of mid/upper level ridge centers near or right over the western Great Lakes, with some trends supporting a slight retrogression to long-wave features to end the week. Should this latest trend continue, it could result in a decidedly much more northern component to our low level flow as troughing digs west into New England and the eastern Great Lakes. Latest forecast leaving this office is definitely trending that direction as well, with summer-like warmth Tuesday (widespread highs in the 80s) followed by a gradual step-down with temperatures to end the week...with highs by Friday back into the 60s and 70s. Same pattern argues for little in the way of any active weather with all forcing and moisture displaced well to our south and east through the period...although suppose a few showers will be possible in the Wednesday timeframe along that southward dropping cold front if just talked about pattern retrogression does indeed occur.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Conditions largely trend MVFR through the remainder of the afternoon for most TAF sites, though may hold off until after sunset at TVC. -SHRA potential most likely at APN through the afternoon. Activity eventually transitions to BR / FG overnight, which will lead to potential for VSBY and / or CIGs falling into IFR territory, perhaps even LIFR at APN, PLN, and CIU. Anticipating most areas to lift to MVFR after daybreak Sunday, with some -SHRA potential to accompany to close out the forecast period.

Breezy easterly winds (sustained 10 to 15kts+ with gusts 25 to 30kts+, strongest CIU, PLN, and APN) will carry through the evening, tapering some late this evening before largely going light and variable later tonight. Winds turn southerly and less gusty Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ017-018-024-030-036-042-088-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342.