textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Air quality continues to slowly improve today.

-Showers and thunderstorms return Monday night through Tuesday.

-Seasonably cool weather with mainly precipitation-free conditions beyond the midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave midlevel ridging pattern remains positioned over the western two thirds of the CONUS today with large scale closed midlevel low pressure centered over Northern Quebec. The Great Lakes region remains under the influence of the aforementioned low with a Canadian Air mass influence. Cool(er) northwest flow combined with surface high pressure keeping weather quiet today besides the continuation of upstream wildfire smoke keeping elevated levels of poor air quality.

At the same time, a shortwave currently over British Columbia will develop surface low pressure and make its way toward Northern Ontario Monday night. Latest guidance hints at the system occluding over the the Great Lakes region with enough instability to produce a round of widespread beneficial showers and storms. Cool northwest air will build behind the system this Wednesday, resulting in climatologically cool conditions beyond the weekend. Additional chances of precipitation remain in the forecast due to embedded waves as they pivot around the longwave trough, but weak forcing and limited amounts of moisture will keep QPF amounts low as we head into late July.

Forecast Details:

Sunday: Surface high pressure will be centered directly over Lake Michigan this morning. Quiet conditions will persist today with light winds and highs in the upper 70s. The only concern is the continuation of the well-advertised wildfire smoke from upstream Ontario. Latest visible satellite imagery along with reports show fires receding combined with atmospheric mixing to result in lighter amounts of smoke density for our region. The Air Quality Alert will continue through today, but again, conditions will be noticeably better compared to Thursday and Friday.

Monday and Tuesday: Main focus of the forecast remains on storm potential Monday evening from the aforementioned approaching shortwave. Latest hi-rez guidance depicts plenty of instability and moisture ahead of the frontal passage to support showers and thunderstorms. Model soundings of deep warm moisture, inverted-v profiles, and long skinny CAPE favor storms producing strong winds and localized heavy rainfall. Two biggest things working against convection remain late evening overnight timing when instability tends to decrease and surface levels appear relatively stable. If convection can be organized, localized areas of well over an inch of QPF and strong wind gusts remain possible.

Wednesday through Saturday Outlook: Midlevel pattern remains mostly unchanged the remainder of the week with ridging over the western two thirds of the CONUS and the northeastern US receiving a more Canadian air mass influence due to troughing over northeast North America. The majority of the week beyond Wednesday will remain dry, but weak embedded height waves will continue periodic chances of precipitation with low amounts of QPF. Temperatures however will be cool for mid to late July as post frontal northwest winds leave highs on Wednesday in the 60s. Temperatures slowly build back into the upper 70s/low 80s the rest of the week as midlevel heights slowly rise toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Any fog/mist/smoke visibility restricting combination should mix out quickly this morning. Still looking at some minor vis restrictions with smoke today and tonight, but with minimal impacts expected. Otherwise, just a few high based cumulus and some passing upper level cirrus at times today into this evening. By later tonight moisture does begin to increase from the west, bringing some mid level clouds...especially across eastern upper Michigan. May see a few showers fall out of this cloud deck, but nothing significant is anticipated. Light winds through the duration, with local lake breeze development this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.