textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain spreads across the region today with showers lingering into Wednesday.

-Seasonably warmer weather builds later this week with additional rounds of showers and storms next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

The midlevel longwave troughing regime that locked the northwoods in with cold cP air influence has shifted its axis over the mouth of the St. Lawrence. Warmer low-level temperatures begin to advect into the Great Lakes Region pivoting mid-May into a seasonably warmer pattern. At the same time, midlevel shortwave troughing currently positioned over the Northern Plains will continue to dig across the Upper Midwest this evening through Wednesday. Surface low pressure spreads showers across the area with embedded convection for the next 24-36 hours before departing to the northeast Wednesday evening.

Upstream ridging will eventually return subsidence aloft and dry things across the region. Surface high pressure will keep conditions quiet this Thursday as temperatures slowly build toward near climatological normals at the end of the week. A few isolated showers remain possible this Friday as a trough and attached low over central Canada extends a boundary southward, but the majority of the week will remain dry after the Tuesday/Wednesday system. The next chance of widespread precipitation remains around the Monday/Tuesday timeframe next week as long-range ensembles depict a low developing lee of the American Rockies and lifting through the Upper Midwest.

Forecast Details:

Showers spread today through Wednesday... Atmospheric conditions remain dry as upper-level profiles become saturated. Virga will likely persist this morning before the entire column is saturated and observational rainfall spreads by late morning/early afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance depicts the frontal boundary occluding across Northern Michigan, which indicates the leading edge of rain will be stratiform, followed by a quick pause in precipitation before more convective-driven showers follow this evening. Model soundings remain conditionally unstable with enough energy to produce some embedded thunder tonight. Backside low-level moisture will continue some lingering precipitation Wednesday morning, but little to no additional QPF is expected after 12z Wednesday as upper level subsidence scours out moisture. Rainfall totals remain between a general 0.20" to half inch for the entire event.

Seasonably warmer temperatures slowly build through the remainder of the forecast period with periodic shower chances... The aforementioned upstream shortwave ridge will briefly return to surface high pressure and clear skies this Thursday. H8 temperatures currently near freezing will warm into the single digits by the end of the week, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s for most areas. Ensembles show a relatively tight thermal gradient at the end of the week, which could cause a wide range of temperatures around the Friday/Saturday timeframe between the upper 50s to upper 70s. Long range guidance this weekend depicts a few waves of energy continuing rounds of precipitation this weekend into early next week. Another shortwave develops early next week lee of the Rockies and makes its way the the midwest around the Monday timeframe. Favorable jet dynamics and dew points surging into the 60s could generate some stronger storms and potentially impactful weather for northern Michigan.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 637 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this morning. Rain is expected to arrive from west to east this morning across western terminals, eventually spreading across the remainder of northern MI into the afternoon. Additional showers and perhaps a few storms will be possible later this afternoon and evening. CIGs will lower with the arrival of rain chances, likely becoming IFR across the eastern U.P. and far northern lower during the afternoon. MVFR CIGs are expected across most of the remainder of the area. Probabilities for LIFR CIGs increase across parts of northern MI later tonight. Otherwise, winds will increase out of the south-southeast this morning with sustained wind speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts into the evening. Winds turn out of the west-northwest by 12z Wednesday, remaining breezy.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.