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KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers over northern lower tonight, more numerous south of M-72.

- Feels like fall, a stretch of cooler temperatures. Patchy frost possible early next week.

- Extended dry period, with limited rain chances next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

West/northwest upper flow across the Great Lakes, as shortwave energy ejects eastward out of the western CONUS trough, with high pressure anchored over south central parts of the country. A quasi-stationary boundary over the northern Ohio Valley continues to be the focusing mechanism for areas of heavy rain, with most of this activity remaining well south of our area. Cool, Canadian high pressure will become the dominate weather player as we head into next week, with a modified Rex block over the center of the country as low pressure slips underneath the ridge.

Low pressure sliding along the boundary to our south will help to wobble the boundary a little further north tonight, along with a weakish mid level inverted trough swinging across the area. This will briefly push deeper moisture northward toward northern lower, resulting in a few showers (sprinkles?), most numerous south of M- 72. Still some question marks as to how far north precipitation may push given the persistent dry, low level easterly flow. Either way, any rain amounts will be very light. Any lingering precipitation ends early Sunday, as drier air begins to push into the area from the north with increasing influence of Canadian high pressure.

This begins a relatively benign weather period across northern Michigan as high pressure largely keeps any rain chances west/south of the area. We will see a few days of seasonably cool temperatures and breezy conditions early in the week, with the thermal trough swinging across the northern Lakes. Monday will be the coolest day with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, setting us up for a very cool and possibly frosty night in at least some interior areas (if the winds decouple). A gradual moderation in temperatures throughout the week as the surface high slowly pushes east and weak return flow allows milder air to gradually work back into northern Michigan. Minimal rain chances throughout the week, with the next better chance of rain possibly coming next weekend or early the following the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Mixed condtions will continue through the period with generally bettering conditions expected for the further north terminals. Expecting MVFR to IFR condtions across some northern Lower terminals, especailly MBL and TVC, as we head further into the afternoon/ evening with light rain chances increasing. Light winds will prevail with chances for BR/FG developing.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346-347. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.