textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong storms and heavy rain possible today

- Lingering showers Thursday, and perhaps beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad ridge axis restrengthening over the PacNW...as 568dm 500mb low swirls over western Manitoba near the MN border, resulting difluence over the Upper Midwest and parts of Ontario...with a second PV max digging south into northern Manitoba attm, and a slight bit of a warm nose/wraparound moisture between these two features. Wad of moisture beneath the swirly across the Midwest/Ontario, with pwats generally ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 in, highest right ahead of a niblet of energy swinging across the western UP as of 3z where some convection has been taking place...and is becoming somewhat disconnected from greater wad of deep moisture from the Mid MS Valley/Central Plains down into the Gulf Coast...with splitting flow in the mid/low levels in this area. Warm, moist advection across the Upper Midwest on SW/SSW low-level flow...slowly pressing eastward across WI and the central Yoop. Surface reflection of the upper swirly is an occluded low positioned over western Ontario, with a cold front draped from here down to KS...and warm front stretching toward the Keweenaw and central Lake Superior as of 0z. A second cold front drapes from ND to Hudson Bay, just behind aforementioned low...with stronger northerly flow over central Canada.

Shortwave trough swings across the Upper Great Lakes today with attendant surface system and convection; lobe over northern Manitoba punches SSE into the Lower Great Lakes and scrapes us Thursday into Friday. Heights try to build eastward into the Upper Midwest going into the end of the week with increasing warm advection out of the Plains...with decreasing influence from upper low that looks to strengthen over eastern Canada. Another bit of PV tracks near the US/Canadian border this weekend into early next week (timing a little unclear attm), and attm appears to track just to our north, with a pattern shift in the works as troughing digs into western North America for a change. This idea, if it holds, would indicate potential for a warming trend across the eastern US toward the middle-end of next week...though we still have a lot of time between now and then to see how things change.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Heavy rain potential today...think the setup remains favorable for heavy rain, with pwats up toward 1.5in, freezing levels up around 700mb or so, and lack of flow likely leading to slower storm motions/longer potential for residence time over an area. Currently, still expect the heaviest rain (potential for greater than an inch) will be across the EUP closer to the better synoptic forcing, and perhaps NE Lower as we go into the afternoon/evening with potential for a couple rounds of storms and perhaps a bit more of an E-W component to the flow, a little more parallel to the boundary. Naturally, any storms will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall, and thus, there could be some hotter spots outside of the aforementioned areas.

Severe storm potential today...Finally starting to see some convective development closer to our area by 7z, along/ahead of a couple boundaries that have been tracking eastward across WI all night...perhaps even a shallow outflow boundary crossing N Lower during the 6z hour, per a subtle N-S line in radar reflectivity near Kalkaska/Bellaire. Anyway, this suggests we are finally starting to destabilize, and will therefore need to keep a close eye on the next 3-6, 4-8hrs, with this first round of warm-advective showers and storms moving through. Think the better axis of instability is to our southwest, though, and think this will likely stay to our southwest (per a redeveloping line near ARX early this morning, tracking along the thickness gradient across southern WI). Would not be entirely surprised if all of this ended up splitting and focusing more to the north across the EUP and more toward GRR today, but will see. Better instability reaches us around 12-15z into the remainder of the afternoon, though based on guidance soundings, it may remain mostly elevated for quite some time, with a warm nose in the mid- levels...and we may struggle to actually get typical surface based CAPE in many areas till perhaps late afternoon...except for perhaps our southeast corner where there is a better shot at breaks in the clouds and diurnal heating. (Interestingly, soundings across parts of the Yoop suggest that while we may warm enough to overcome the warm nose...it may remain too moist and stable in the low-levels for parcels to accelerate off the surface.) Attm, appears deep-layer shear increases this afternoon into this evening ahead of a front (or two) draping across the area, and this could allow for development of some stronger storms, especially for NE Lower, this afternoon into this evening (18-23z). We may in fact see a secondary front/trough drop in this evening, around or after 0z, and keep the threat of stronger showers/storms going after dark. Wind and hail remain the primary concerns, with the potential for discrete convection and perhaps some upscale growth...but the moist low- levels and that discrete convection potential do make me wonder about isolated spin-ups.

Another punch of cool air aloft late tonight into Thursday will likely keep a few showers/drizzle around the area, similar to the other day, with temperatures again running on the cooler side of things (though not quite as cold as it was over the weekend). Unclear attm if this idea will hang on long enough into Friday to be a concern...but by later Friday, we may be starting to look at our next shot at warm advection activity approaching from the west/southwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Additional SCT -SHRA and -TSRA are expected to sweep across all TAF sites this afternoon and evening, causing temporary flight category reductions. Ceiling heightS lower this evening and overnight with widespread MVFR and IFR heights combined with patchy BR at KCIU, KAPN, and KPLN. Surface winds veer to the northwest overnight and remain breezy through Thursday, with lingering -DZ and mostly MVFR CIGs slowly lifting tomorrow afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ025-031-095. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.