textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/thunder chances return early Friday with the best chances expected late Friday morning into Friday night. Potential for 0.5-1 inch or more rainfall for parts of the area by Saturday morning.

- Rain-free weather returns this weekend into early next week before a more active pattern sets in Tuesday/Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level ridging will center itself squarely overhead this evening, building surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS as best subsidence aloft is displaced further downstream. A more complex pattern evolution will transpire upstream into Friday. Southern stream troughing will progress eastward across the far southwest CONUS with a shortwave ejecting over the northern Great Plains and a separate northern stream wave digging across the Pacific Northwest. The end product will be an expansive closed mid/upper low centered over Saskatchewan/far northern Great Plains through much of this weekend. The associated surface low will swing up the northern Great Plains into tonight, leading to a vertically- stacked system that gradually weakens with time Friday and Saturday. The relatively diffuse attendant cold front is expected to slide in to the Great Lakes Friday/Friday night. High pressure is expected to build in behind this during the second half of the weekend into early next week before a more active pattern sets in by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Forecast Details:

Primary focus of the forecast lies on rain chances and perhaps some thunder returning to northern Michigan late tonight through Friday night. Showers/storms will fire along the aforementioned cold front across the Midwest this afternoon and evening, working east and weakening with time. Some of this activity may hold on, along with potential additional development, to potentially bring some showers and a few storms into northwest lower and eastern upper late tonight/early Friday morning. Better chances for scattered/numerous showers and a few storms will arrive by late morning/early afternoon Friday with development along the front as it slowly works across the area. PWAT values in excess of 1 inch would be close to climatological max values for the end of April, and this abundant moisture would support efficient rainfall with any showers/storms -- including the potential for amounts of 0.5-1 inch or more rainfall by Saturday morning, mainly across areas along and east of I-75. While improvement in flood conditions have been seen with this recent stretch of dry weather, this additional rainfall would only exacerbate flood impacts heading into the weekend.

Otherwise, rain chances diminish through Saturday morning as high pressure builds in, bringing about another stretch of dry weather through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Cooler temperatures are in store Saturday afternoon with highs largely in the 50s across the Northwoods. Weak/calm winds will support radiational cooling, potentially dropping temperatures down into the low to mid 30s for many interior areas Saturday night/early Sunday morning. More mild temperatures come back Sunday and Monday with highs climbing into the 60s. Looking ahead, rain chances and cooler temperatures look to work back in by Tuesday/Wednesday as the next system moves across the Great Lakes heading into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue across northern Michigan into Friday morning. Chances for showers/storms (20-40 percent) will move into northwest lower Michigan around 12Z Friday and continue through the duration of the TAF period, potentially impacting MBL, TVC, and PLN. Associated MVFR CIGs also look to move in Friday morning, but arrival of degraded flight conditions is expected to be delayed later in the morning and may be confined close to the Lake Michigan (including MBL) through 18Z Friday. Otherwise, south winds will turn to east- southeast winds tonight and increase into Friday morning, becoming 8-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts at times into Friday afternoon -- especially across eastern upper and far northern lower.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Friday night for LMZ342. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322.