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KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and breezy today, resulting in dangerous swimming conditions along portions of the shoreline.

- Seasonable temperatures through the week with rain chances by late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Any lingering showers will continue to diminish through the predawn hours as the departing low pulls farther into eastern Canada and surface high pressure begins building southeast into the Great Lakes. This marks the beginning of a quiet stretch of weather through at least the latter half of the work week as Canadian High pressure settles overhead beneath a persistent northwest flow aloft. While the larger scale upper-level pattern may fluctuate somewhat with time, little overall change is expected through much of the forecast period, favoring a continued stretch of generally dry and seasonable conditions.

Today looks pleasant with sunshine building in through the day and lower humidity levels, although a tightening pressure gradient between the aformentioned exiting low and incoming high pressure will support breezy north-northwest winds through much of the day. Gusts should be sufficient enough to build waves along portions of the Lake Michigan and Lake Huron shoreline, where hazardous swimming conditions may develop. Winds look to ease Tuesday night as high pressure works overhead, allowing for efficient radiational cooling. The coolest morning s appear to be Wednesday and Thursday, when several of the traditional colder interior locations could dip into the 40s before quickly rebounding after sunrise. Despite the cool starts, afternoon temperatures should steadily moderate with many locations climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday under plentiful sunshine.

Attention then turns toward late week and the weekend as northwest flow persists and a couple of subtle disturbances attempt to work southeast across the Upper Great Lakes. Confidence remains lower regarding the timing and coverage of any precipitation, though the current signal continues to favor at least low chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms sometime Friday into Saturday. Outside of any passing precipitation chances, temperatures should remain close to seasonal normals through the weekend and into early next week with no strong indication of prolonged heat or widespread impactful weather at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 636 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Low cloud will linger across parts of northern lower Michigan for a few hours as increasingly dry air works in from the north, helping to scour out cloud cover and leave VFR conditions in place through the rest of today. North winds around 10 kts will gust to 15-25 kts at times through this afternoon. While not currently anticipated, there will be low chances (less than 30 percent) for FG/BR development later tonight with weakening winds and clear skies, allowing for efficient radiational cooling.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ030-031- 036. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.