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KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow tonight into Tuesday across portions of northwest lower Michigan.

- Continued cold through this week, coldest period Wed night to Fri morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 144 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Vigorous clipper system moves across Ontario and into the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday, resulting in a period of accumulating snow. Snow begins to break out tonight along the LM shoreline along the sfc convergence as the sfc low moves southeast across Lake Superior. Area of snow moves eastward with time with lake effect/enhanced snow continuing across northwest snow belts/northwest lower MI. Not a whole lot of liquid equivalent for this event, perhaps 0.2" +/-, but enough in some areas for ~2-4/2-5" of snow, combined with wind gusts ~30-35 mph at times. Thus, occasional blowing snow is possible, esp near the LM shoreline. Leaning towards a marginal advisory for portions of the area as a result, will see what GRR wants to do as well.

Even if the accumulations are on the lower end, there will likely be a period where the morning commute will be slick and hazardous. It will be pretty cold through the day, with H850 temps ~-20C and lower, but the DGZ squeezes in near the sfc. Thus, there's at least some questions about the snowfall efficiency (after the initial lake enhanced snow), but should be enough to accumulate a couple to several inches. Nevertheless, impactful snow/vsbys still likely. Another note to pass along, the uptick in winds this evening and on Tuesday will likely lead to blowing and drifting snow along US-2 in Mackinaw county, but that will be more from snow already on the ground/lake and not falling snow. Not sure the degree of impact as winds turn westerly on Tuesday but worth noting. Worth taking a second look at western Chirp zone as well, but the bulk of the snow in that area will be lake driven and generally through the day on Tuesday. Lake effect snow degrades to some degree later Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 144 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Coldest period of the long term likely begins later Wednesday and lasts through early Friday. Cold northerly push of frigid air expected later Wednesday into Thursday. Thus, low temps Wed night into early Thursday likely plunge well below zero for many, with high temps in the single digits on Thursday. Another cold night expected Thursday night with values well below zero once again and perhaps even colder wind chills. Couple periods of lake snow showers possible during this time as well. With how cold it will be, any lake snow showers will have to potential to significantly obscure visibility due to the smaller flake size, although actual accumulations may not be all that significant. Expect a moderating trend into this upcoming weekend, with the potential for high temps to rise back into the 20s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Scattered lake snows continue to be observed across northern Michigan with some reduced visibilities reported within the heaviest bands. More of the same will continue through the period with lake enhanced snow picking up in intensity and organization tonight through Tuesday as winds turn northwest by Tuesday morning. Expect BLSN to produce periods of reduced visibilities (IFR to possibly LIFR) through the period, especially tonight as a front moves through west to east and winds increase with occasional gusts 15-25 knots.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ020>022-025>027-031-032-099. MARINE...None.