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KEY MESSAGES

- Colder air and accumulating lake effect snow showers likely Monday and Monday night.

- Unsettled weather for the second half of the week with potentially some precipitation type issues once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Shortwave moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, helping to swing a cold front through northern Michigan. In its wake, several upstream shortwaves will slide through a deepening upper level trough over the Great Lakes into early next week. These waves will reinforce the cold air across the area, as well as provide lake effect snow shower chances. Temperatures will moderate some (at least closer to normal) by mid to late week, although additional shortwave energy likely brings precipitation chances back into the area as well.

Primary Forecast Concerns and Details:

Plenty of low level moisture in the wake of our departing surface low this evening, as a cold front slides across the area. Likely some drizzle and fog for a time before cold air advection strengthens overnight and slightly drier air arrives. Any lingering rain may turn to a little snow overnight. We likely get cold enough aloft toward Sunday morning for some light lake effect/lake enhanced rain and snow shower activity in west/northwest flow areas. Shower coverage will be enhanced with an uptick in 850-500mb moisture coinciding with the arrival of a weak upstream mid level wave during the morning. The snow likely won't amount to much, but minor accumulations will be possible over the higher terrain. Otherwise, a cold Easter Sunday with wind chills in the teens and 20s and scattered rain/snow showers through early afternoon. Some improvement in conditions by later Sunday with some sunshine and gradually decreasing winds. Better snow chances Monday and Monday night with the arrival of reinforcing cold air and embedded shortwave energy. A modified arctic airmass takes hold on Monday, with falling temperatures and increasing overlake instability (is this April?). Would not be surprised to see a few inches of accumulation in some areas (especially interior higher terrain). Beyond this, the active weather continues, with the next round of precipitation arriving midweek with additional p-type issues as warmer air makes a push toward the Great Lakes. This looks more like a snow to rain transition - not the freezing rain we have seen more recently. The pattern remains unsettled through the end of the week with temperatures returning toward more seasonable norms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Mix of LIFR and IFR CIGs through this evening becoming MVFR overnight for most. Periods of -RA will continue, in addition to BR (perhaps FG at times), mixing with -SN later tonight into Sunday morning. Thus, VSBYs will vary at times through this evening. Generally MVFR CIGs will continue into Sunday with light lake effect snow showers. Breezy east winds will shift to the southwest tonight, then northwest on Sunday with gusts 20 to 35 mph through much of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.