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KEY MESSAGES

-High pressure returns with quiet and dry weather today and Saturday.

-Overnight temperatures fall near freezing tonight and Sunday night.

-Quiet and mostly dry weather continues through next week besides isolated precipitation chances Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Midlevel longwave troughing continues to build across North America today with its axis centered over the Great Lakes Region. As a result, cool and dry cP air begins to influence the northwoods today as temperatures fall back to climatological norms for early October. Cold air advection will support highs in the 60s while temperatures fall around freezing levels tonight. Continued surface high pressure will keep the remainder of the forecast period mostly dry besides a brief chance of isolated rainfall generated by an embedded shortwave pivoting across the U.S./Canadian border. Additional overnight lows near freezing will continue frost/freeze concerns, especially Monday night.

Forecast Details:Today and Saturday: Model soundings depict conditions quickly drying at the surface and aloft as the cold front makes its way across Northern Michigan. Some lingering moisture around 5000ft AGL will generate some cloud cover while 850mb temperatures continue to fall near zero. Widespread overnight lows in the mid/low 30s will generate frost concerns across the northern lower peninsula while interior eastern upper will likely experience below-freezing temperatures.

Sunday through Thursday Outlook: The aforementioned weak embedded wave develops lee of the Canadian Rockies and works its way to the Great Lakes Region this Sunday. Surface low pressure will make its way across Southern Canada and an additional frontal boundary will push enough moisture and lift across Northern Michigan to create isolated showers. Showers remain confined mainly to eastern upper with only a general tenth of an inch or less of total rain for most areas. Another round of post-frontal cold air advection will lower overnight temperatures to at or below freezing for interior northern lower.

Longwave midlevel troughing progresses downstream this Monday and gets replaced by shortwave ridging. Subsidence aloft will keep conditions dry through the remainder of the forecast period with highs near normal for early October.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Rain has departed to the s and e. An associated cold front is also exiting to the se. VFR conditions expected for the rest of the night and the upcoming day Friday. Nw winds will be breezy on Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ017-018-022-023-027>029-032>035-086-087-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.