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KEY MESSAGES

-Air Quality improving, but still suboptimal, over the weekend.

-Showers and thunderstorms return Monday with stronger/severe potential, along with torrential rainfall.

-Cooler weather with mainly precipitation free conditions build beyond midweek next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Forecast Synopsis:

Longwave troughing firmly in place over NE NOAM, with a robust thermal ridge up the spine of the Rockies. Result is persistent NW flow aloft across the upper Great Lakes. Shortwave vort max and attendant sfc low pressure approaching Val-d-Or, Quebec, continuing its south and east of the area. Attendant surface cold frontal boundary has essentially passed through the region this morning, leaving the area in northwest flow... which, while has stabilized the atmosphere and has let cold advection transpire, it also has forced another plume of Canadian wildfire smoke into the region both at the surface and aloft, with lots of 1 mile to 4 mile VSBYs at area reporting sites. As such, with continued smoke issues plaguing diurnal heating, anticipating most spots likely wind up in the 60s to upper 70s today... coolest near the Soo and warmest near Saginaw Bay.

Looking ahead, the persistent NW flow regime will continue its influence aloft. Surface high pressure should mitigate most rain activity across the region tonight as it moves overhead, with winds trending from northeasterly to southwest tonight into Sunday. Dry weather to prevail through Sunday and into Monday. Robust shortwave currently digging from central Canada will lead to the next rain chances Monday into Tuesday. In the wake of that system, surface high pressure builds and should bring a return of drier weather Wednesday through the end of the forecast period, though guidance wants to perhaps bring additional rain chances into the upcoming weekend... still a bit early to sort that out for the time being.

Details:

Smoke Trends: Thicker plume of smoke has returned to the Northwoods in the wake of this morning's frontal passage. Current hi-res smoke guidance wants to keep the smoke overhead into the afternoon, with a little bit of a reprieve across NE lower with some weak NE flow building in late tonight into Sunday... but will likely hover over NW lower through the day Sunday. SW flow strengthens ahead of the next sytem Monday, which will blow the smoke plume back over the region, but should flush it out of the area by late in the day. Will have to see how things go heading into Tuesday, but with winds turning NW behind another cold frontal passage, my guess is there will be more smoke related issues. Nonetheless, an Air Quality Alert is in effect for all of northern lower and eastern upper through Sunday night.

Rain Chances: Rain chances trending downward today as stable air pours into the region. Perhaps an outside shot at an isolated shower or storm near Saginaw Bay, but the bulk of today's robust convective activity looks to generally favor the I-69 corridor and points south and east. Next rain chances arrive Monday and into Tuesday as the ensuing central Canadian system races across the region, with sfc low pressure passing just north of Lake Superior, and the attendant NE to SW oriented cold frontal boundary sweeping through the region Monday night. Ample moisture advection ahead of the system (humid airmass with surface dewpoints spiking into the 70s) should bring about plenty of heat and humidity to play with, and with good jet dynamics (left exit region overhead Monday afternoon-night), support is there for robust convection to materialize within the warm sector overhead. As such, severe potential is on the table, possibly all hazards, but SPC's latest outlook specifies a damaging wind threat as the primary concern. Most of the CWA lies under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5), but SPC's outlook states further upgrades in category may be necessitated... which, if timing and current progged parameters hold, seems justifiable in future forecast cycles. In addition, may need to watch for more hydro concerns, especially in sensitive areas, as this airmass will be very moist (PWATs ballooning toward 1.25 to 1.75 Monday evening), and thus easily capable of producing torrential rainfall... and if any echo training can occur, that could become problematic. With uncertainty looming regarding this issue, will roll with generic messaging, but mention potential for severe and torrential rainfall.

Temp Forecast: Highs generally in the 60s and 70s today, overnight lows in the low 50s inland NLP and all of EUP, upper 50s to low 60s on the coasts. Highs 75 to 85 Sunday and Monday, lows milder Monday night... low to upper 60s. Cooler Tuesday through Thursday, highs 65 to 80... coolest Wednesday (adjustments may need to be made with future smoke intrusions). Seasonable this upcoming weekend, with highs in the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

While Canadian wildfire smoke is still resulting in VSBY reductions across some areas, conditions have noticeably improved this afternoon into this evening -- including VFR VSBYs at all northern Michigan TAF sites. With current low/mid cloud expected to clear and aforementioned smoke being translucent to outgoing radiation, efficient cooling overnight with calm winds may allow for FG/BR development across parts of the area. Any significant VSBY reductions are expected to improve shortly after sunrise Sunday. Otherwise, smoke is still included in the TAFs through the end of the issuance period, but expectation is that conditions will be considerably better for much of Sunday compared to the last several days.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ018. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321.