textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Very good shower chances late tonight into Thursday morning. A few t-storms possible late tonight.

- After tonight, relatively quiet and mild weather persists into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis: A rather flat southwest to northeast oriented flow regime is in place to start the forecast period. An impulse embedded within this flow will track mainly across the northern tier of states/southern Canada, which will drag a cold front through the Upper Great Lakes region later tonight into early Thursday.

Behind the above mentioned disturbance, heights generally build across much of eastern North America into early next week. A stronger, slow moving, potentially cutoff trof will approach the Great Lakes region after Monday, but model agreement in the details with this system is not very good right now. There is still plenty of time to get the details with this system ironed out.

Forecast Details: Very mild conditions for late October linger into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected along/ahead of the front after midnight tonight into early Thursday. The convection will be elevated with a southwesterly low-level jet as high as 50 kts. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly steep as well ahead of the front so some of the showers may be robust where they occur. The weakening of the nocturnal low-level jet should result in diminishing coverage/intensity of precipitation with eastward extent.

Not a whole lot of weather of note through the weekend in the wake of the front. Temperatures cool behind the front, although still a little warmer than normal, but warm again after Friday as upper-level heights rise and southerly low-level flow returns. Rain chances start to return Monday night as a stronger, but currently low confidence system approaches.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Expect southwest flow low level wind shear to near 50 knots to end from west to east heading into this morning. Band of showers, mostly light, will spread across the area early this morning. May have a few rumbles of thunder, but not expecting anything significant. Band of lower cigs to MVFR expected to follow behind this rain this morning, with cigs scattering out through the later morning and afternoon across northern lower Michigan. MVFR producing lake clouds look to impact KCIU through much of the day. Gusty southwest winds become west and northwest today, with winds decreasing this afternoon and especially this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.