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KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler/near normal temperatures continue through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures return Wednesday through the weekend.

- Shower chances return late Wednesday night - Thursday, and perhaps again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, northern MI is sandwiched between upper ridging over the southeast states and closed low pressure centered over far northern Quebec. Last night's cold front now situated to our south...draped from NE eastward through central IL into far southern MI/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, ~1037mb sfc high pressure centered near the Manitoba/Ontario border will drift southeast across Ontario through Tuesday while a mid- level shortwave treks across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. As that wave continues to depart into Ontario/Quebec on Wednesday, the surface boundary to our south will lift north as a warm front setting the stage for another round of above normal temperatures across northern MI. Next chance for rain holds off until late Wednesday night - Thursday as another area of low pressure treks by to our north, dragging a cold front across the area locally. Additional shower chances may present themselves at times over the Halloween weekend, but with a wide envelope of solutions possible at this time with respect to coverage/timing.

Forecast Details: Not a whole lot of sensible weather to speak of through midweek. The only possible blemish to this arrives late tonight into Tuesday morning, primarily across far northwest lower into the eastern U.P., as that upstream wave passing by to our west may be just enough to kick off a few isentropically driven showers locally, although the vast majority will remain well off to our west. Otherwise, cooler/near-normal temperatures expected Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 40s far north and through the 50s over northern lower.

Another warm up for Wednesday under partial sunshine. Latest trends favor high temperatures spanning the 60s area-wide with a few lower 70s possible. This places at least a handful of climate sites within a few degrees of daily records (ANJ, PLN, GLR, HTL). While Thursday - Sunday high temperatures will be a touch cooler than Wednesday, above normal temperatures are expected to continue -- generally ranging from the mid-upper 50s far north and through the 60s south.

Shower chances return late Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front crosses northern MI. Coverage/intensity of these showers looking less and less impressive with time, but still will be the time frame that features the highest precip chances over the next week. Looking toward Halloween, above normal temperatures mentioned above expected. Shower chances may return late in the day, but lots of spatial/temporal uncertainty continue.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR is expected through the entire forecast period. Current winds from the north will slowly veer to the SE by Tuesday morning. Some patchy BR development remains possible at KAPN, but confidence in visibility dropping to MVFR remains low. CIGs are expected to drop to 5000ft Tuesday morning at KMBL, KTVC, KAPN, and KPLN but heights of 3500ft will be observed at KCIU by Tuesday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.