textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering afternoon showers and gusty winds diminish.

- Lots of dry time Wednesday through Friday with potential for more widespread rain at times this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, 994mb low pressure sits near James Bay with a warm front in the process of trekking across northern MI. Trailing cold front not far behind, generally draped across the central U.P. into northeast WI. Gusty southwest winds remain the rule this afternoon with winds eventually flipping northwesterly and diminishing behind the cold front. By late evening, this cold front should have cleared the area with cooler and notably drier air filtering in as surface high pressure builds into the area by Wednesday morning. This boundary looks to turn stationary over the lower Great Lakes into the Midwest Wednesday-Thursday on the northern periphery of building heat dome over the southern Plains and Southeast states. This should largely focus additional precip chances to our south through late in the work week before additional energy treks over the nation's midsection into the Great Lakes at times this weekend through early next week.

Forecast Details: Gusty southwest winds and lingering showers remain the rule early this afternoon, but both expected to diminish over the next handful of hours behind a cold front surging east across the forecast area later this afternoon through this evening. Winds turn out of the northwest area-wide by late evening/early overnight and markedly diminish. Cooler and much drier air aiding to partially clear skies through this time frame with tonight's lows spanning the 40s to low 50s -- coldest across the interior areas of the eastern U.P. and north-central lower.

Aforementioned boundary that becomes stationary well to our south Wednesday through Friday should focus the vast majority of additional precip to our south leaving primarily dry conditions locally. The one possible blemish arrives late Wednesday night/early Thursday as quick-moving mid-level energy may be enough to squeeze out a few showers, but certainly doesn't look to feature much in the way of impact if it occurs at all. Seasonable high temps mid-late week ranging from 65-75 degrees.

This weekend into early next week, lots of uncertainty prevails, but latest trends continue to support renewed chances for periods of rain, potentially locally heavy at times as another potent wave and surge of deep moisture set their sights on the middle of the country. Certainly a timeframe worth monitoring over the coming days for how amplified that wave becomes and how far north the surge in deep moisture makes it.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Some shallow stratocu lingers over ne lower MI, including APN (MVFR cigs earlier). This will tend to depart. Depending on how quickly winds can diminish tonight, some fog is likely. HTL/Y31 already have some fog in the interior. Have a period of MVFR vsbys at all sites (IFR at MBL). Quieter and VFR Wednesday, with drier air in place. Light w to nw winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.