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KEY MESSAGES

- Brisk with showers into this evening. Rain/snow mix possible for some this morning.

- Breezy to windy Sunday with a chance for showers.

- Not as cool after today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

A digging shortwave is closing off and slowing, executing a tight cyclonic turn over MI today before heading east. In northern MI, DPVA forcing is decreasing from this point forward, and synoptic-scale moisture will be doing likewise. But it's plenty cold enough for lake effect showers, and those will continue into at least part of tonight. 00Z soundings had a inversion height temp of 0C at 875mb at APX. GRB had a somewhat deeper unstable layer, inversion top 860mb at -3C.

Precip has been mostly rain to this point, but colder air is still to work in this morning. 850mb temps reach -6C later this morning. Given the above, and being in the unfavorable part of the diurnal cycle, some mix with snow is expected this morning, especially in eastern upper MI and the higher elevations in northern lower MI. (Accums will be negligible.) Mixed precip becomes less likely this afternoon due to diurnal heating. Precip coverage remains high into early/mid afternoon in the northerly-flow lake effect areas. But coverage will slowly decrease after that, faster on Lakes MI/Superior then Huron. Higher pops for showers linger well into tonight in ne lower MI.

Early in the weekend, surface high pressure passes west and then south of the Great Lakes. This gets temporarily displaced by a another digging shortwave Sunday to our north, in northern Ontario. This sharpens up our pressure gradient considerably in the northern lakes, and sends a frontal boundary across the area. We are south of the better moisture and forcing, but some showers remain possible in central and northern areas on Sunday, especially in the afternoon. Also a breezy to windy day.

There's a hint of upper troffing over the Great Lakes early- to mid-week, extending into the region from northern Quebec. But for now there are no well-defined waves passing thru the flow. For now these periods feature an occasional slight chance for rain; would anticipate given the pattern there may be one or two systems that do better than that, but can't pin them down with any detail yet.

Today looks to be the coolest day of the next several, upper 30s thru the 40s for highs. We will become well above normal again after this, especially SUnday thru Tuesday, before cooling off a bit again.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 646 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Lake effect clouds and precip continue, though will start to dwindle later today. PLN/CIU have the best chance for seeing some snowflakes mix in, thru midday. MVFR cigs will be most common today, though often toward the low end of MVFR. Expect APN to become IFR this morning, and stay that way into tonight.

Brisk north winds today, diminish tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.