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KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow today for most across northern Michigan.

- Milder to end the week, much colder this weekend with occasional snow showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Main energy and troughiness that impacted the region mid week will continue to exit to the northeast across portions of Canada, to be replaced by several weak vort maxes/short waves today. Pretty weak sfc reflection as a result with only light snow expected today and this evening, steadiest north of M-72.

Vigorous little upper low dives down across Ontario and Quebec late week, with subsequent strong sfc low tracking to our north. Pressure gradient increases quite substantially across northern Michigan, reflected in the H850 - H700 mb wind fields (upwards of ~50 kts). Despite the strong jet in the low levels, combination of poor frontal timing and inefficient mixing due to warm advection will likely lead to only breezy conditions Friday - Friday night. At least that is how it currently stands, certainly bears watching. Nevertheless, this signals a frontal boundary advecting into the region with a much colder airmass expected this weekend.

High pressure dives to the southeast early this weekend with a west to southeast moving frontogenesis band within the temperature gradient across the Great Lakes Region. Could skim the region with a little snow, but likely more for downstate. High pressure builds in during the second half of the weekend with generally quite weather for most outside of a few flakes.

Northern stream remains quite active early next week, although the depth is in question. Likely most of the activity will stay to the north, at least most of the significant precipitation. All the while, upper low across the Desert Southwest may try and move northward into mid week. Something to keep an eye on going forward for our neck of the Northwoods.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Light snow today:

Weak energy aloft will produce a batch of snow today, light for most, but coating the ground for some. Expect generally T to 2 inches, with the most persistent snow north of M-72. DGZ depth will be quite high for a brief period with a lake enhanced look to the sounding, especially/mainly from Tip of the Mitt northward, so this is where the fluffiest potential for a couple of inches may reside. Most guidance shows 1-2" of snow, locally 3", perhaps, in these areas. Overall consensus is for a light snow event today into this evening.

Frontal boundary Friday. Snow showers into this weekend:

Frontal boundary moves through later Friday/Friday night, with breezy conditions. Most guidance suggests the mixing will be very muted Friday afternoon and most of the night. Thus, strong winds are not expected at this time despite the screaming winds in the lower levels. That does not necessarily mean it will be not breezy to localized windy, esp into the overnight but have gusts in the 20s to low 30s (mph) instead of higher. Will be worth monitoring the boundary layer mixing efficiency going forward, esp with the passage of the front.

Couple of snow showers will also be possible with this frontal passage, but current guidance fails to generate much in the way of activity outside of the E UP and vicinity (even then pretty meager).

Lake effect snow showers linger this weekend, largely in the E UP, with some low/minor impacts possible. Farther south across northern lower, band of frontogenesis may skim areas ~south of M-32. Overall, the main impacts from this will likely be downstate.

Next Week:

Generally looks low impact early next week with low probabilities for 0.1" or more of precipitation. Energy will likely pass to our south as seen in the ensemble guidance as well, with a few northern perturbations within the flow, but likely moisture starved at that. Expect a general moderating trend as well. Perhaps something to watch ~mid next week, but too early for any specifics.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Ongoing lake effect snow showers will continue to diminish tonight, first across northern lower and late tonight/early Thursday morning across the eastern U.P. Most areas have improved to VFR conditions this evening, and expectation is that VFR conditions will continue through Thursday morning. Another round of light snow and associated low clouds/VSBY drops will return Thursday afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGs are likely across the eastern U.P. and parts of far northern lower by early Thursday afternoon, continuing into the evening. MVFR VSBYs are also likely at times with drops to IFR VSBYs possible under any heavier snowfall. Areas south of this activity -- including TVC and MBL -- are expected to stay VFR through the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.