textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday into Saturday. Localized moderate to locally heavy rain will be the main concern through Friday night.

- Heat and humidity build next week with occasional thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Several pieces of energy out over the Plains states will drift east- northeast with time tonight into Friday, producing showers and embedded thunder on Friday. Expect a band of rain moving from west to east, working near and east of 75 during the afternoon and evening hours. A few additional showers/storms possible Friday night out ahead of the next piece of energy that moves southeast overnight.

Guidance is having a hard time resolving the energy that will ultimately influence the rain across the region. Some of the latest suggests this feature stays a little to the south of the area and somewhat elongated (not as sharp), with the best QPF downstate. Given the meager instability (during the day), if any more convective elements are able to establish, locally heavy rain will be possible. Best forcing and timing of this feature though for our region will be south of roughly M-72, esp near and south of M-55. This is shown by several pieces of guidance including the HREF, suggesting the potential for >0.50" of rain in these favored areas. Given the atmospheric evolution, locally heavy rain seems to have a higher potential than the severe threat, albeit both are pretty small. Could be wrong on that, especially given the convectively enhanced/agitated nature of some of the progged energy leading to inherent uncertainty, but we'll see.

By Saturday morning, short wave and subsequent forcing will be somewhere around Lake Michigan (albeit slight differences in guidance in position). Thus, a very broken line of showers/embedded thunder will move from northwest to southeast through the morning hours, with the highest potential for additional showers and a few thunderstorms across portions of northeast lower MI (esp Saginaw Bay and vicinity) before clearing out overnight. Modest shear and CAPEs ~1000-1500 j/kg are worth watching, especially near Saginaw Bay where sfc convergence may be maximized.

Upper ridging will dominate the weather pattern next week. Consequently, temperatures will soar into the 80s and eventually lower 90s at least by the end of next week. Energy during the early to middle portions of next week will push the upper and sfc high pressure to the east, with an influx of moisture and muggy conditions. Thus, there will be the potential for thunderstorms at times given this pattern. By the end of next week, it looks like the high pressure redevelops over northern MI, increasing temperatures into the 90s and trapping sfc moisture with dewpoints likely in the 60s, some guidance suggesting near 70. Thus, hot and humid conditions expected for the second week of June. We'll have to keep an eye on the thunderstorm potential as well moving forward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Prevailing SW flow 5-12kts but expect lake breezes again this afternoon at TVC/MBL in particular. Think winds will lighten up a bit overnight with land breezes at coastal sites...but will become more SW by morning...increasing to 10-12kts gusting 15-25kts. Some LLWS around 1500-2000ft possible again, but think winds will stay below 30kts tonight and have not included this in tafs attm. VFR cigs/visbys today...with cloud bases lowering toward 7kft or lower after 6-9z as rain/storm chances move in. Best shot at rain/storms will be after 9z for CIU/PLN/TVC and closer to 12z for APN/MBL. MVFR likely by end of taf period, and could go IFR if rain is intense enough.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.