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KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances this evening and again Saturday into Sunday morning. Localized heavy rainfall is primary threat. Low chances for severe storms Saturday.

- High Swim Risk possible south of Empire Saturday.

- Much cooler Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to churn south of Hudson Bay through the weekend. An associated trough embedded in the main flow currently overhead will lift northeast of the region tonight as a second jet max punches over the Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a relatively weak/diffuse cold front draped across the Midwest will drop northwest to southeast across the area in the Saturday PM/Sunday AM timeframe. High pressure will temporarily build in on the backside of troughing to start next week before the pattern looks to become more active through the middle of next week.

Forecast Details:

A boundary/low-level convergence axis apparent in latest obs with north winds near Sault Ste. Marie and southwest winds across other portions of the eastern U.P. will likely be the focus for shower development later this afternoon. Relatively steep lapse rates, mixed-layer buoyancy on the order of several hundred J/kg, and deep- layer shear around 35 kts will contribute to support localized thunderstorm potential near Whitefish Bay into this evening. While gusty winds and small hail is possible with any stronger cells, severe storms are not expected at this time. Shower/storm chances will wane late this evening into tonight.

The primary focus for the forecast period will be the rounds of showers and storms that are expected to begin early Saturday morning and continue at times into Sunday morning. Warm advection/large- scale ascent over the aforementioned front draped across the Midwest will provide sufficient forcing to support showers/storms well to our west this evening. Current expectation is that this activity will hold together as it tracks east over Lake Michigan late tonight into early Saturday morning. While precise location is still uncertain, multiple rounds of showers/storms appear likely to track across northern Michigan between M-72 and the Straits throughout the day -- perhaps raining a majority of the daylight hours across the wettest corridor of northern Michigan. While severe weather parameters appear favorable on the surface (sufficient buoyancy, strong shear w/ 0-3km BWD ~60kts and 0-6km BWD ~70kts), belief is that storm mode will largely inhibit severe chances on Saturday. That said, a few strong storms capable of producing strong winds and hail cannot be ruled out. Primary concern with storms will be the threat for localized heavy rainfall in excess of 1" by Saturday night -- with the potential for some areas to see closer to 2" under training heavy showers/storms. Chances for showers/storms will gradually work south with time later Saturday into Sunday as the front moves across the area, leaving mostly dry conditions in place to end the weekend. On top of shower/storm chances, gusty southwest winds may keep a high swim risk in place at some Lake Michigan beaches Saturday -- mostly likely from Empire south.

Much cooler temperatures will also move in behind the front with highs mainly staying in the 60s on Sunday. Temperatures look to gradually warm through the first half of next week, though most areas will stay a few degrees cooler than mid-June averages. Rain chances also look to hold off through Monday before returning by Tuesday/Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Lower clouds/ceilings have lingered longer than previously thought, but still expect conditions to improve through the early afternoon to VFR with some shower/storm chances across CIU this evening through tonight. West-southwest winds will be breezy through early to mid evening with sustained 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. Winds will diminish later this evening, especially tonight becoming AOB 10 knots. Winds will increase once again Saturday with gusts 25-30 kts by the end of the issuance period with shower/ storm chances moving in across terminals west to east beginning about ~12z, some stronger storms are possible in the afternoon/evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ025- 031-088. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344-345.