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KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of snow showers, lake enhanced at times, will continue through Saturday.

- Shot of Arctic air visits the region Monday and Tuesday, bringing with it some dangerously cold conditions and more lake snows. Very difficult travel is likely during this period in our lake effect areas.

- Some moderation the middle of next week, but temperatures will still remain below normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave trough, within much broader northeast NOAM centered long- wave troughing, digging east into the Great Lakes region early this afternoon. Attendant ~995mb surface reflection getting set to cut across northern Lake Michigan, with weak surface trough/cold front extending south from it across Lake Michigan into Illinois. Broad but relative weak isentropic upglide/moisture advection ahead of this front helping drive mostly light snow into northern Michigan this afternoon, with most areas experiencing snow amounts under an inch...with just some locally higher amounts. Temperatures definitely have rebounded from yesterday's bitterly cold conditions, with current readings mostly ranging through the in the 20s.

Lead wave will exit stage right early on this evening as additional energy takes it place across the western Great Lakes. Surface features respond to both, with low pressure broadening out across northern Michigan overnight...only gradually rotating off to the east on Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Focus remains centered on snow evolution and amounts through Saturday, most notably in a few of our favored lake prone areas.

Details:

Complicated forecast set to continue through Saturday as slow moving low pressure pinwheels across the area. The more widespread synoptic snow portion of this "event" will come to an end heading through the remainder of this afternoon into the evening. Expect more pockets of passing snow showers tonight through Saturday...driven by local areas of enhanced convergence under passing low. Can't even rule out some pockets of freezing drizzle at times with only fleeting bouts of deep saturation through the mid levels. Lake component to all this remains a formidable challenge as well given weak and disorganized wind fields and as slight moderation of the low level thermal profiles occur. Think the best shot to see some better lake snows will remain across our far southwest where wind fields will remain a bit more organized... allowing for some better lake moisture flux. Still, just not seeing any signals for any real significant snows through Saturday morning given those more marginal thermal profiles. Suppose a few inches are possible near Lake Michigan...at least enough to continue to warrant ongoing headlines. May see some better lake snows organize Saturday afternoon with onset of some weak cold air advection and passing of primary surface trough...but again...just not seeing anything too widespread or significant. Fairly "mild" conditions will persist...with lows tonight in the teens to lower 20s followed by highs ranging through the 20s to lower 30s on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Now much advertised shot of Arctic air still set to deliver the goods to the Great Lakes early next week...driven by sharp shortwave trough digging right out of the Canada tundra. Large scale flow regime becomes a bit less amplified thereafter...at least helping temperatures moderate a touch for the remainder of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing what is looking like a rather high impact cold and lake snow event later Sunday through Tuesday.

Details:

All attention directed at that sharp wave set to dive southeast out of Canada early next week. Southwest winds out ahead of this wave will be interacting with a plenty cold enough environment to likely kick off some healthy lake enhancement off Lake Michigan Sunday...with target areas being the collar counties up into the Straits. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see several inches of new snow by later Sunday evening in these areas...with increasingly gusty southwest winds only adding to the travel difficulties. Definitely a period to monitor for those end of the weekend plans.

Arctic front crosses the area rapidly Sunday night, really kicking in the cold air advection as winds swing around to northwest. No other way to put it, but it looks downright nasty Monday into Tuesday, with gusty northwest winds and very cold thermal profiles through the column supporting at times dangerously cold conditions. Lakes of course will do their best to modify the airmass (that of course comes with its own price. See that information in the following paragraph), but still looking at highs on Monday likely falling through the single digits, with readings in the single digits and lower teens on Tuesday. Gusty winds and lake clouds/snow will prevent actual low temperatures from reaching their full potential Monday night. Still, simple magnitude of this cold air will result in temperatures likely in the single digits to teens below zero across eastern upper Michigan, and in the single digits both above and below zero south of the Mighty Mac. Of course, what it will actually feel like is a whole different story, with those gusty winds dropping wind chill readings several degrees below zero...reaching a minimum Monday night into Tuesday morning when values into the negative teens and lower 20s are expected. Little doubt cold weather headlines will eventually be needed for at least a part Monday into Tuesday.

Other story will be northwest flow driven lake effect snows Monday and Tuesday. Actually period of heaviest snows will likely occur later Sunday night into early Monday when the dendritic growth zone remains activated (supporting good snow to liquid ratios) and sharp cyclonic low level wind fields are expected. Looks the the snow belts of northwest lower Michigan will be most under the gun for this period. Dendritic growth zone is quickly lost heading through Monday and Tuesday with increasingly cold thermal profiles (h8 temperatures will down into the -20s Celsius). This will result in more of a "talcum powder" type snow...negating significant accumulations, but doing a nightmare on visibilities. Would expect near whiteout conditions at times Monday into Tuesday morning (helped along by areas of blowing and drifting snow). Flow locks in more west/northwest during this period...really targeting the traditional snow belt locations of both peninsulas. Some gradual improvement heading through Tuesday as winds back and synoptic moisture contribution becomes increasingly lost. If trends hold as advertised, travel would be highly discouraged both Monday and Tuesday, especially in those snow belt locations.

As mentioned earlier, pattern does relax a bit thereafter, helping temperatures "recover" by several degrees. However, still looking at readings remaining several degrees blow normal...just not of the Arctic variety. While not seeing any significant systems, passing relatively moisture starved waves and remaining lake processes will continue to bring the threat for at least some snow at times through the remainder of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

MVFR at best through the forecast period for most. -SN will continue across the board, least prevalent at MBL, through the evening. Anticipating activity to become a bit more sparse later tonight with improving VSBY as we get between systems. A secondary disturbance builds through Saturday, leading to an uptick in snows in the afternoon at all sites except APN. As such, anticipating potential for IFR CIGs and VSBYs to materialize again late in the forecast period at all sites except APN, which may see some -SHSN in the vicinity, but not enough to be prevailing conditions.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ020-025- 031. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ095- 098. MARINE...None.