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KEY MESSAGES

-Lake effect snow showers continue today... especially across eastern upper.

-Brief chances of precip remain possible at times this week before seasonably cold temperatures return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

500mb longwave troughing remains positioned across the central CONUS this morning. Upstream heights begin to break apart, resulting in a split wave pattern by this Thursday. As a result, waves of energy will ride around the Great Lakes region through the remainder of the week rather than through it.

Surface low pressure from the departing clipper system is currently positioned just south of Hudson Bay. The Great Lakes region will remain under it's influence by dragging cool NW cP air from the north. Delta T's remain strong enough to support lake effect snow through tonight. Continued periods of precipitation will remain possible at times through Friday, but surface high pressure positioned over the Wisconsin/Minnesota border will continually scour moisture and result in low (if any) QPF. Besides the cold air intruding the Great Lakes this weekend, no impactful weather is expected at this time.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Lake effect snow showers continue today... especially across eastern upper: Gusty winds and strong enough delta-T's will create enough instability to continue lake effect snowfall today. Widespread snowfall amounts remain low, as most areas across the snowbelts will observe only an inch or less, but areas along eastern upper are another story. Latest hi-res continue to hint at stronger bands developing over eastern upper, in particular western Chippewa county. A 3 to 6 hour window could develop efficient snowfall this morning from inversion heights across eastern upper remaining higher than northern lower combined with longer fetch . These late season lake effect snowfall events typically need deeply cold conditions to support a window of strong delta T's. This event however is missing that deep cold to produce higher amounts of snow accumulation's. Expect most areas north of M-28 to only receive a couple inches, but localized higher amounts of +20:1 snow cannot be ruled out near Whitefish Point.

-Brief chances of precip remain possible at times this week before seasonably cold temperatures return this weekend: Midlevel longwave troughing begins to break down into a split flow pattern this evening, resulting in the baroclinic zone currently over the central U.S. to shift southward. Conditions at the surface for the Great Lakes region will remain relatively benign. Waves of energy will track around the Midwest beginning Friday. Another round of light snow is expected this Thursday as another clipper progresses across northern Ontario and extends showers south of the border. Little (if any) QPF is expected as this system remains moisture starved in the low levels from upstream subsidence. Probabilities of precipitation remain low (10-30%) beyond Thursday as deep surface high pressure settles into the Great Lakes region from the north supporting quiet and cold weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Light lake effect snow showers and associated MVFR CIGs are expected to persist across parts of northern Michigan through Wednesday morning. Heaviest snow showers and most likely VSBY drops to IFR or lower will come across the eastern U.P./CIU. Otherwise, snow showers look to taper with time along with CIGs rising to VFR for most areas during the afternoon/evening. West-northwest winds around 10 kts will gust to 20-30 kts at times through the afternoon before weakening during the evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.