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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph, especially this morning.

- Above normal temperatures today, with temperatures reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s across northern Lower.

- Next system set to impact northern MI midweek, bringing chances for mixed precipitation, accumulating snow, and colder temperatures to close out the week.

- Another system could bring accumulating snow to end the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Mild early spring conditions remain in place across northern Michigan early this week as a warm and increasingly well-mixed airmass spreads across the region. A surface low tracking across southern Canada will keep pressure gradients fairly tight today, allowing gusty southwest winds to persist with occasional gusts around 30 mph (higher gusts to 35 mph possible for areas closer to Lake MI). Aside from a few light rain showers early this morning across eastern Upper and portions of the Tip of the Mitt, most areas should remain largely dry. The bigger story today continues to be the well advertised warmth. Persistent southwest flow, strong mixing, and increasing sunshine should allow temperatures to climb well above normal. Highs should reach well into the 50s to mid 60s across northern Lower, while eastern Upper likely remains somewhat cooler in the upper 40s to possibly low 50s. A few daily record highs could be challenged across northern Lower if temperatures reach their full potential this afternoon.

Mild condtions continue through much of Tuesday as the airmass slowly begins to cool. Surface high pressure sliding east across Ontario will allow a weak cold front to sag south toward the region, gradually introducing east to northeast winds north of the boundary. Aloft, flow becomes increasingly zonal while additional moisture begins spreading toward the region ahead of the next developing system. Much of Tuesday should remain fairly quiet, though precipitation chances will begin increasing later in the day and especially Tuesday night as colder air starts pressing southward near the surface.

Forecast confidence decreases somewhat heading into Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next system emerges from the Plains and tracks toward the Lower Great Lakes. As colder air filters in at the surface on strengthening northeast winds, warmer air aloft may linger for a time as southwest flow continues above the boundary layer. This setup supports the potential for mixed precipitation developing later Tuesday night across northern Lower, including freezing rain and sleet, while eastern Upper may transition to mostly snow more quickly as colder air deepens there first. Probabilities for at least 0.10" of ice accumulation have trended slightly downward this forecast cycle, but remain notable at around 45% across northern Lower, with the highest chances favoring northeast Lower. Meanwhile, probabilities for snowfall of 3" or more remain fairly low overall, mainly focused across eastern Upper where chances sit in the lower 40% range through Wednesday. As the low tracks toward southeast MI Wednesday, colder air should gradually wrap into the region, allowing precipitation CWA wide to trend toward all snow with time.

Behind this system, colder air returns to the region with a more typical mid-March airmass settling in for the latter half of the week. High temperatures will trend cooler, likely settling back into the 30s for many areas as a cooler airmass becomes established. The pattern remains active as additional upper-level disturbances move through the pattern. Periodic snow showers will remain possible late in the week, and guidance continues to hint at another system approaching toward the end of the work week into next weekend. As colder air becomes more firmly established, probabilities for snowfall for 3" or more begin to increase through the weekend with this next potential system. While details remain uncertain at this range, the overall pattern continues to favor cooler temperatures and continued active weather heading into mid-March.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Spotty light rain/sprinkles will diminish late in the overnight. Conditions will remain VFR in any case, as rain is falling out of a mid-cloud deck. Decreasing clouds into Monday, especially in northern lower. A initial cold front will drop south across the area in the afternoon and evening.

Gusty southwest winds into Monday morning, along with LLWS. Winds become somewhat lighter in the afternoon while veering w and nw.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.