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KEY MESSAGES

-Light scattered showers track across Eastern Upper today.

-Rounds of rainfall expected to track across the region Thursday through Saturday.

-Quiet and dry weather continues next week with temperatures well above normal for early March.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Midlevel longwave troughing remains spanned across Canada while heights across the Midwest show a more zonal flow pattern. Low-level atmospheric temperatures continue to warm today as a mild air mass builds across the CWA from the southwest. The surface pattern remains primarily dry across the CWA while boundaries develop across southern Ontario and through the Ohio Valley, bringing snow to the north and rain to the south.

Dry conditions continue through Wednesday with temperatures climbing well above normal for early March. The pattern turns more active Thursday through Saturday as multiple shortwaves develop over the Central Plains and lift through the Midwest. The first disturbance on Thursday will track through the Ohio Valley and spread light rainfall north. More widespread and heavy precip is expected with the second system Friday afternoon through Saturday, as guidance depicts high QPF with enough instability to support potential convection.

The long-range pattern returns to quiet weather early next week as low-amplitude longwave troughing remains spread across Canada and zonal flow remains straddled across the Great Lakes region. This pattern will likely support surface high pressure and temperatures well above seasonal norms.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Light scattered showers track across Eastern Upper today... Light southwest flow will continue warm air advection across the CWA. As a result, temperatures will climb slightly above normal with highs around 40 across Northern Lower and Eastern Upper, while Eastern Upper remains in the mid 30s. The majority of the CWA is expected to remain dry. A stationary boundary extends across the Ohio Valley and another boundary remains north of the border over southern Ontario. Enough low level saturation extends south across Eastern Upper this afternoon, producing a few scattered rain and snow showers. Only a trace or so is expected however as surface temperatures remain near/above freezing should melt any falling snow.

-Rounds of rainfall expected to track across the region Thursday through Saturday...Light precip spreads this Thursday driven by the previously mentioned disturbance tracking through the Ohio Valley. Latest hi-res guidance depicts a more southerly track compared to yesterdays forecast, thus leading to even lesser amounts of QPF. Any appreciable rainfall will remain south of the CWA, with a gradient forming across M-32 and southward only observing a general tenth or less. Most rainfall is expected with the Friday/Saturday system, as highest probabilities of rainfall are between a quarter to half inch. Rainfall pattern will be more uneven compared to Thursdays forecast, as decent low level CAPE values and moderate mid level lapse rates create convective driven showers with even some embedded thunderstorms. One thing to look out for is locally higher amounts of precip supported by a warm moist layer and PWAT's approaching an inch. This could lead to some ponding due to clogged/poor drainage from any un-melted snowpack.

-Quiet and dry weather continues next week with temperatures well above normal for early March... Previously mentioned zonal midlevel flow will support overall dry weather and quiet conditions Sunday and beyond. Cold air locked to the north will keep the entire CONUS under a more mild Pacific air mass influence. Latest blended models have been trending upward, with highs in the 50s across most areas beyond Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR condtions are expected to continue through most of the issuance period. Ceilings are expected to scatter some this afternoon/ evening, especially across northern Lower. However, some mid to low clouds look to sneak into eastern Upper and the tip of the Mitt towards the end of the period, dropping condtions down to MVFR to even possibly IFR. Light winds continue through the period with chances for patchy fog development late tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.