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KEY MESSAGES

- Few showers this afternoon, mainly northeast lower. Trending drier area-wide this evening through Saturday.

- Spring-like warmth Sunday through much of next week, accompanied by renewed shower and thunderstorm chances (locally heavy at times). Watching increased potential for localized flooding and severe weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level trough axis swings across northern Michigan late this afternoon/evening with heights rising tonight into the upcoming weekend. Expansive ~1032mb high pressure sagging in from the northwest becomes centered squarely overhead late tonight/Saturday morning. Late in the weekend into early next week, upper high builds across the southeast states with troughing becoming evident over the western third of the CONUS. As a result, moisture/instability likely to advect north, along with a return of spring-like warmth. Primary focus Sunday through at least midweek will be increased potential for multiple waves of locally heavy rain/flooding concerns and potential for severe weather.

Forecast Details:

Widespread rain/snow last night/early this morning has since shifted well downstream. While primarily dry conditions are anticipated across the vast majority of the forecast area for the remainder of the afternoon, low PoPs do exist over parts of northeast lower, especially near Saginaw Bay, where enough there's enough evidence for additional isolated to scattered rain showers. Dry conditions prevail area wide tonight through Saturday as high pressure drifts across the area. Should be a chilly night ahead for many with clearing skies and light winds leading to efficient radiational cooling. Lows in the 20s for most, but some teens certainly within the envelope of solutions for the typically colder/interior locations. Saturday expected to feature mostly sunny skies and high temperatures topping out in the upper 40s far north and through the 50s across much of northern lower.

Attention turns to Saturday night through the middle of next week as a return of active weather is expected. Initial rain chances arrive from southwest to northeast as early as Saturday night and continue at times through much of the day Sunday into Sunday night. Latest trends support somewhat of a break in the action during the day Monday, with chances quickly returning Monday night/Tuesday through at least midweek. Plenty of moisture through this late weekend/next week time frame with dew points progged in the 50s locally and PWs often greater than 1-1.25". While the primary concern will likely revolve around potential for repeated waves of locally heavy rain leading to localized flooding concerns (especially where lingering snow pack erodes), the Monday night - Tuesday time frame looks to feature at least a low-end severe weather threat locally. Lots of details to be sorted out in the days to come, but this remains highlighted in SPC's Day 5 outlook with 15% severe chances nosing all way into parts of northern lower MI.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period...with mostly sunny skies today given way to increasing mid clouds this evening. Light winds, with some local lake breeze development possible this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-086>088-095-096. MARINE...None.