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KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry mix possible this morning from the Straits northward into the eastern UP.

- System to bring a wintry mix of precipitation to northern Michigan mid week including accumulating snow and ice.

- Additional wintry precipitation chances to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Quick moving energy aloft along with very weak sfc low pressure system will move through northern MI this morning and afternoon today. Consequently, generally light precipitation is anticipated, with the potential for brief wintry mix across the Straits and northward. Quiet day is anticipated on Tuesday with height rises in response to the next major storm system that will impact the region Tuesday night through mid week.

Aforementioned ridging will slide to the northeast across portions of Ontario as a negatively tilted trough spans across the Upper Midwest. Elongated sfc low development from ~MN to C MI will slowly either slide eastward and/or wash out and slowly weaken. Warm advection overspreads the region in response to the parent low pressure system to our west and precipitation blossoms over the area, with snow and freezing rain the main concerns.

Another storm system will be on the mid week systems heels, ejecting from the energetic Intermountain West/Desert Southwest up into the Upper Midwest. More wintry precipitation is likely with this system late week, potential exists for both snow and ice once again depending on exactly how far north this system can get.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Light freezing rain/wintry mix this morning:

Quick moving energy and sfc low will result in an equally quick batch of precipitation moving across northern MI through the day today. Sfc temps around freezing from ~Straits northward into the E UP thru the morning combined with the potential for precipitation may lead to areas of a wintry mix and perhaps some light freezing rain. Not high enough confidence for an advisory, but something that will be watched with the potential for a special weather statement if slick conditions develop. This will be quick moving through the day today with temperatures rising above freezing during peak heating. Localized slick secondary roadways will be the primary concern assuming sfc temps are cold enough to support freezing rain. South of the bridge, largely brief rain/showers expected.

Another round of freezing fog possible tonight:

Investigating fcst soundings and subsequent sfc vsby guidance for tonight suggests the potential for another round of freezing fog. Thus, slick conditions will be possible, especially for secondary, untreated, roadways.

Accumulating Snow & Ice Mid Week:

Low pressure system brings a healthy amount of precipitation to northern Michigan Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Still some concerns on the axis of precipitation, and how far north the best QPF will ascend. On one hand, some of the guidance wants to keep the best QPF near/south of the bridge as the colder air pinches down from the sfc high pressure to the north. Another solution would be for the better QPF to actually spread northward and make it into the eastern UP. This secondary solution would result in moderate to heavy snowfall across the E UP, with moderate icing across portions of northern lower, especially across the interior/higher terrain. Heaviest snowfall would sag southward some potentially with the former scenario. Thus, there is still uncertainty with this potentially high impact event for some. Leaning with the best potential for heavier snowfall across the E UP given some of the ensemble means, and best potential for at least moderate icing along and north of M-72, but also east and north of Traverse City. Somewhere in that vicinity, which makes sense given the east- northeast flow and terrain. Heaviest snowfall amounts may range ~6 to 10", with icing ~0.10-0.25". Breezy to low end windy conditions will only exacerbate any issues from icing or snow through the day on Wednesday. This system will be impactful, whether it is the snow or icing. Will ultimately wait another cycle for watch decisions given some of the uncertainty and the general consensus, at least farther north.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Very poor flying conditions into Monday morning in IFR to VLIFR fog/stratus at all TAF sites. APN/TVC generally getting the worst of it. Conditions will gradually improve in the morning at the northern lower MI, with CIU lagging a bit behind. All sites MVFR to VFR in the afternoon, though vsbys will start to lower again heading thru Monday evening. Light winds into the morning, sw winds get breezy Mon afternoon at TVC/MBL.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.