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KEY MESSAGES

- Localized several inches of snow possible this evening into Monday morning, specifically north and west of Thunder Bay, south and east of Grand Traverse Bay, and near Whitefish Point.

- Accumulating snow and travel concerns possible Monday night into Tuesday, primarily across open areas of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills continue through this week. Coldest conditions may be Thursday night into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 255 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide off the Atlantic coast as expansive troughing churns across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies tonight and Monday. Multiple embedded waves will rotate through, providing support aloft for an unusually large surface cyclone that will trek from the Mississippi Valley up along the east coast into the Mid-Atlantic/New England tonight, bringing high-impact winter weather to an impressive swath of the country. Shortwave ridging on the backside of this system sliding over the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest will provide subsidence aloft that will help build surface high pressure from the Pacific coast over to the Mississippi Valley to start the week.

Forecast Details:

Localized several inches of snow -- As the previous forecaster discussed, the primary concern into Monday will be the potential for several inches of snow across highly localized areas of northern Michigan. First comes sections of northeast lower west and northwest of Thunder Bay where snow showers are just beginning. A convergence band with embedded mesolow characteristics is expected to move onshore across eastern Presque Isle and far northern Alpena counties later this afternoon/evening. With low-level profiles extending through the DGZ, snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour will be possible. With banding moving through the area into tonight, a general 2-4" is expected with the potential for localized amounts of 6"+ inches should most intense banding pivot over an area for several hours. Quick accumulations on roads and reduced visibility are expected under banding, making localized hazardous travel possible. A similar story is expected for areas south and east of Grand Traverse Bay as well as near Whitefish Point where 2-3" are anticipated for those areas with localized amounts of 4"+ possible. Otherwise, cold weather persists across northern Michigan as wind chills stay in the single digits above and below zero through Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

After shortwave ridging progresses overhead Monday night, a strong shortwave trough will punch across the northern Great Plains and over the Midwest/Great Lakes through Tuesday. The associated clipper will trek across the far northern Great Lakes in the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe. Northern Michigan looks to lie underneath expansive troughing through much of next week, sandwiched between surface low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west.

Forecast Details:

Accumulating snow and travel concerns Monday night - Tuesday -- The next round of accumulating snow chances for parts of the area returns late Monday night and continues into Tuesday afternoon with the aforementioned clipper. The cold air mass and lack of substantial return flow/moisture advection will contribute to this system being relatively moisture starved and may struggle to bring snowfall totals greater than 1" outside of typical lake effect areas. That said, a few inches of quick-hitting, efficient snow will be possible across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan as the cold front swings through after dark Monday evening with low-level profiles displaying sufficiently warm temperatures to support dendritic growth initially inside the cloud layer. Sustained west- southwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph will likely lead to quick drops in visibility at times, especially across open areas where blowing snow may be a concern. This is especially true across the stretch of US-2 west of St. Ignace now that ice cover has expanded across northern Lake Michigan. Road closures may be possible again should it reopen before Monday evening.

Very cold weather continues through this week -- After Tuesday, the primary story for the next week will be the cold temperatures and wind chills across the region. High temperatures in the single digits and low teens with overnight lows mainly in the single digits above and below zero are in store for the area through Friday. At these temperatures, wind chills are expected to be near zero or colder at all times the rest of this week -- even during the afternoon. While still several days away, coldest conditions may come Thursday night into Friday morning. Below-zero lows appear likely across interior areas, and latest ensemble probabilistic guidance supports this (40-80% chances for below-zero temperatures early Friday AM). When combined with light north winds, wind chills values dipping into the -20s F or even -30s F may be possible Friday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 459 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

MVFR to even IFR producing lake snows and clouds will continue to impact KAPN for a few more hours this evening. Expecting perhaps a few inches of snow before the lake snows move out. MVFR to VFR conditions expected elsewhere tonight and Monday. May see a few lake snows move across KMBL and KTVC later tonight and Monday, but with minimal impact expected. Light winds through early Monday, with winds becoming a bit gusty Monday afternoon out of the west and southwest.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.