textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Some true summer heat on Tuesday

- Temperatures trend back to more normal levels the second half of the week into the weekend

- Only very minimal rain chances at times this week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Still some broad troughing found across the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon, this despite some notable height rises in the last 24 hours. Embedded very weak wave and attendant just as weak and disjointed moisture advection spreading overhead, kicking off some higher level clouds in the process. Definitely a much warmer day to end this holiday weekend, with southwest return flow and plenty of filtered sunshine helping temperatures spike well up into the 70s for much of the area early this afternoon. May yet see an isolated shower/storm develop within this heat and under the passing wave this afternoon (although lack of any cu field at this time sure argues otherwise).

Little change from what has been advertised the last several days, with still expected development of a very amplified mid/upper level pattern across central NOAM as we head into the remainder of this week. Full guidance suite agrees with tis scenario...with development of extensive and strong central Plains/southern Canada ridging bookended by northeast NOAM and west coast centered troughing...with these features reaching maturity the second half of this week. Northern Michigan looks to remain centered in interface between that central Plains ridging and downstream deepening trough. This supports mostly dry northerly flow aloft and some cooling the second half of the week as low level flow also takes on a decidedly more northerly component.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main focus on temperature trends the remainder of the week into the weekend, with secondary focus directed at what appears to be some lower end shower/storm chances at times.

Details:

Any showers/storms that fire this afternoon (if they do) will end quickly this evening. Not expecting a repeat of the dense fog experienced this past night as the low level environment continues to dry some. All indications continue to support a rather warm Tuesday, with top/down thermal profiles, mostly sunny skies, and what should be some decent mechanical mixing contribution (west wind gusts in excess of 20 mph at times) all supporting widespread highs in the mid and upper 80s across a good portion of northern lower Michigan, with a bit cooler conditions near Lake Michigan and for areas north of the big bridge. Some hints a weak southward sagging surface trough may be just enough to drum up an isolated shower/storm or two during the afternoon. However, guidance that does support this potential appear much too moist in the lower levels (dewpoints up into the 60s???). Will continue to run with a dry forecast.

Latest guidance trends and simple pattern recognition of ridge/trough placement supports large area of surface high pressure dropping south out of Canada the second half of this week. This will force temperatures to cool some, with highs by Thursday and Friday in the 60s and 70s (coolest temperatures near the Great Lakes and across eastern upper Michigan) with lows mostly in the 40s. Not seeing much evidence for significant change heading into the weekend with deep layer flow likely to continue coming directly out of Canada. This will keep highs in the 60s and 70s and lows down into the 40s. Large scale flow regime supports little in the way of any significant rain potential, though suppose a brief shower remains possible along any weak cold fronts dropping south through the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR. Pressure gradient tightens tonight, ahead of a weak incoming cold front. This will limit fog potential tonight. patchy mid and high clouds tonight, and some cu Tuesday. Breezy sw-erly winds tonight and Tue morning, veering nw late. LLWS tonight CIU/PLN/APN.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341- 342. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ344-345.