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KEY MESSAGES

-Light snowfall with rain mixing in spreads across Michigan today.

-Mild weather builds this week with highs in the upper 30s for most areas.

-Watching for widespread showers this weekend followed by potential accumulating lake effect snow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 226 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Previously mentioned midlevel ridge continues to build this Tuesday and Wednesday placing its axis over the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure will support mild/quiet weather Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the Upper 30s for most parts of the CWA. Low end probabilities of rain returns this Thursday as a frontal boundary tied to troughing over Hudson Bay extends precip down through the lower Great Lakes region. Again, the majority of areas remain dry, but a few isolated showers with little to no QPF along eastern upper remain possible.

Thursday and Friday...Low pressure develops lee of the Rockies and extends a boundary driven via warm advection through the Great Lakes region. Current guidance does depict favorable midlevel dynamics to support organization, but a lack of strong moisture advection from the south. Current ensembles/blends continue to keep the highest QPF probs below a quarter inch of mainly rainfall, but models still have a decent spread on how much moisture advection is actually drawn from the Pacific. We will continue to monitor this set up and its potential impacts around the busy holiday travel period.

Saturday and Sunday Outlook...Midlevel shortwave troughing currently stalled over the Gulf of Alaska slowly progresses across the country and makes its way to the northern plains region this weekend while deepening. Long range ensembles show potential support for a surface level cyclone to develop and track its center through the Great Lakes region this weekend. Too early to advertise amounts, but highest probs of decent measurable precipitation continues to trend upward with accumulating backside lake effect snow and gusty winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 639 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Conditions trending towards VFR for most sites as -SN has diminished and exited. Some MVFR cigs linger, but all sites should improve by 05Z. Skies will breifly become FEW/SCT AOA 5kft, with BKN/OVC moving in quickly from west to east after 06Z. Near surface moisture will move in after 10Z, leading to chances for BR/FZFG for a few spots (KMBL/KTVC). Chances were too low to put in TAF tho. Precip returns from west to east after 12Z, likely in the form of -RASN. Times of -RA or -SN will also be possible. A break in precip will be seen near the end of the period, before more moves in. Winds AOB 10kts tonight will back through 10Z. S/SW winds of 5 to 15kts with G15kts will be seen for NW lower sites (KMBL/KTVC/KPLN).

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ342- 344>346.