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KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated Fire Danger Monday in place afternoon.

- Showers continue through this evening, returning again later Monday into Tuesday.

- Much cooler temperatures and additional frost/freeze concerns return Tuesday through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 408 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging continues to slide east of the region today as shortwave troughing works overhead. The associated weak surface response will also trek east tonight as much more expansive troughing punches over the Great Lakes later Monday and remains draped across the region into next weekend. A stronger surface cyclone looks to progress to our north across Ontario and over Hudson Bay, swinging the attendant cold front across northern Michigan Monday evening/Monday night. High pressure looks to build to our west behind this, nosing into the region through the middle of next week before additional waves embedded in the main flow look to rotate through late next week.

Forecast Details:

Primary forecast concern looks ahead to Monday with Elevated Fire Danger in place. Widespread RHs in the 25-35 percent range across most interior areas from late morning into early evening will combine with sustained south to southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 25-40 mph at times, raising concerns for the potential of quick-spreading fires with any fine fuels that are able to quickly dry from rainfall today. Please see the latest Fire Weather Planning Discussion for additional details.

Otherwise, showers will continue at times across northern Michigan through this evening, eventually ending overnight. A brief break in rain chances is in store Monday morning and early afternoon as aforementioned south/southwest flow helps advect a much warmer airmass northward, helping temperatures climb well into the 60s and low 70s by the afternoon. Increasing clouds are expected through the day as rain chances work back in later in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the aforementioned front. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Much cooler temperatures move in behind the front Tuesday through the rest of the week. Highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s are anticipated most days heading into next weekend with frost/freeze potential each night. Depending on winds and cloud cover, lows could dip well into the 20s again some nights next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Largely VFR through the evening, though some TEMPO VIS and CIG reductions to MVFR possible through the evening as a band of SHRA (even +SHRA has been observed at PLN) works its way across northern lower Michigan. Gusty SW winds this evening (perhaps as high as 30 to 35kts at times) subside, leaving a narrow window of LLWS potential along the Lake Michigan shore. Looking ahead into Tuesday, primary concern will be gusty winds again but with VFR conditions to start. Anticipating another batch of SHRA to try and intrude toward the end of the forecast period from the northwest.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.