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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy, showery, and cool conditions today into Monday...a rumble of thunder not impossible

- High swim risks today and possibly into Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge axis stretching from the SW US bookended by sharp troughs....one over the PacNW, and another stretching from Hudson Bay to a lobe of PV over central Ontario, down through the Great Lakes and down into the Carolinas...with Bermuda high well off the coast. 100kt upper jet snaking through the flow, particularly on either side of the eastern US trough axis. Deep moisture that aided in yesterday's localized 2-4in rainfall now exiting stage right into New England and eastern Canada, along/ahead of an occluded surface low on the north edge of Georgian Bay as of 0z; surface cold front with this drapes to the Southern Plains and back up the lee side of the Rockies, where mid/upper level return flow from the SW US aids in convective activity. PV max over Ontario has some associated weak stability aloft with seasonably cool 850mb temps around 4C beneath it...with strengthening (20-30kt) N/NNW low-level flow poised to advect this air into the Upper Great Lakes; the harbinger of this is a surface cold front draped from the Canadian border toward Whitefish Point and up to James Bay as of 0z. Warm advection already taking shape across the central Canadian Prairies with 1022mb surface high focused over Manitoba/MN.

PV max over central Ontario to track SSE across the area today...lending to a strengthening of low pressure near and northeast of Georgian Bay. Thus, expect strong NW/NNW flow over the area today, slowly waning with time into Monday, though we will still remain under cyclonic low-level flow until high pressure finally builds into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday night/Tuesday. Next system, that current PacNW system, will track across southern Canada and lend its warm advective influence to the Upper MS Valley as early as Tuesday...and track into our area going into Wednesday, bringing us the next shot at unsettled weather. Signals point toward troughing attempting to settle into the eastern US again for the latter half of the work week...while troughing over the West Coast tries to squash the western ridge altogether...potentially resulting in zonal flow across the northern CONUS...and perhaps a blocking ridge setting up over northern Canada?

FORECAST DETAILS...

Winds/beach hazards today/tonight... Strongest portion of the pressure gradient may remain to our north/northeast, which would limit the winds here...but expect sustained winds 10-20mph will remain likely, especially for the EUP and NE Lower, right on into Monday morning, tapering through the day as the low pulls away. Prevailing direction should be NW to NNW through the period, but should fluctuate back and forth in this general portion of the wind rose depending on the passage of perturbations/PV maxima through the day (current timing on the main PV max is for it to drop through late morning into the afternoon). Winds aloft still don't look overly impressive (generally 20-30kts from 925 to 850mb) for much of the day, but may strengthen above 30kts for a period this evening/tonight before diminishing with time Monday. Suspect gusts will largely reflect this idea, and still don't have a lot of confidence in achieving persistent gales...but best shot at this would likely be over Whitefish Bay, northern Lake Huron, and perhaps also near the tip of Grand Traverse Bay where there could be some channeling of winds. Nonetheless...gusty winds today will result in dangerous waves and currents, and high swim risks across most beaches.

Showers/storms today into Monday...Potent pv max diving in, combined with some signals for weaker stability aloft, could indicate some potential for more vigorous convection and perhaps small hail along with lightning. With overlake instability as a player, wouldn't be impossible to see convection end up deeper/more vigorous, though inversion heights should be around 700mb/9-10kft, which could put a cap on things...but do wonder if the 18-22C lake surface temps will try to overcome that. With a little better deep layer shear in the region today...suppose there is a non-zero chance everything could come together just perfectly to produce some spicier storms...but not a sure bet by any means. If anything were to get a little spicy, would expect it would be similar to yesterday's scattered pop-up convection with primarily gusty winds as the concern.

Some deeper moisture wraps around into the region toward evening from the northeast...likely some kind of wraparound/trowal-ish feature related to the departing surface low. Thus, suspect this would be a wad of somewhat more warm-advective stratiform rain and/or drizzle. Do wonder if this could result in a swath of higher QPF, particularly with signals for pwats to jump back above 1in... but also think the bulk of, if not most of this, will remain offshore...given some question as to how far back to the east the moisture will wrap. (Not to mention subsidence should be increasing with time tonight into Monday.) Guidance soundings also suggest the idea of stratiform rain/drizzle, noting moist but mostly stable thermal profiles, which could also limit QPF.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 654 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Low clouds this morning leading to MVFR at most terminals. Clouds will linger for the next couple hours, but will improve to mostly VFR by 15z. Northwest winds will quickly strengthen to 15kts with frequent gusts up to 25kts. Chances for VCSH near some terminals. MVFR ceilings move in over KAPN/KCIU/KPLN after 00z with chances for -RA. Winds gradually diminish through the end of the period. Very low chances for TS.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-018- 020-021-024-025-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.