textproduct: Gaylord

KEY MESSAGES

- Quieter and milder today into Tuesday

- Rain chances Wednesday-Wed night

- Sharply colder Thursday-Friday with lake effect snow/rain in places

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Vigorous shortwave just ne of Georgian Bay will accelerate eastward, moving thru the base of a broader upper trof over eastern Canada. Shortwave ridging builds into the northern lakes today, in advance of another digging shortwave that gives us a glancing blow tonight. As ridging in the western US/Canada becomes more amplified this week, more energy drives southward into the central/eastern Conus. This will deepen troffing in the Great Lakes later this week, and allow a system to organize in the east half of the country Wed-Thu. Much colder air is expected here behind this system for Thu-Fri.

Sct lake effect rain showers continue early this morning, though coverage/intensity have been decreasing. Expect precip to continue to wane early this morning, though clouds will be slower to erode. Clouds associated with our next shortwave trof will return to the north late today, and a small chance for a showers will be mentioned for eastern upper MI for part of this evening.

Otherwise mainly quiet tonight into Tue night. However, pops increase Wed-Thu. The primary surface low track is looking to be well to our south, from southern IA to southern OH. But a secondary e-w fgen zone, more poleward than the primary one, will be working south across our region mid-week. Moisture and precip chances will be increasing Wed/Wed night, especially in northern lower MI. This is also when colder air begins to push in, with potential lake enhanced precip thus a factor. However, the expected ne to n fetch is not a favorable one, except for relatively small spots in ne and nw lower MI. What precip we get will be mostly rain Wed/Wed night, but become snowier by the very end of the week.

Above normal temps today and Tuesday. Sharply cooler for Thu- Fri, with Wed a transition day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

MVFR or borderline MVFR cigs have expanded across most of northern MI, though this deck is discontinuous at MBL. Expect TVC/MBL to be MVFR at times this morning, then improve. APN/PLN will be MVFR until early-mid afternoon, then improve. CIU should stay MVFR well into tonight.

Nw breezes this morning will back to the w and sw into tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for LMZ342. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ321.