textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Patchy areas of fog will be possible across the southern Texas Panhandle this morning, as well as the northern Oklahoma Panhandle, with potential for localized areas of dense fog.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms are likely later tonight through Friday night. There is a low chance for flooding or flash flooding.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into Monday. Windy conditions are looking likely behind a cold front Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

We will be monitoring for localized patchy fog development once again (potentially dense in spots), lasting through the morning hours. Given the amount of moisture in the ground across the Panhandles (especially southern areas), we could see areas of fog develop as winds diminish and temperatures cool to the mid 50s. A weak frontal boundary could also help advect fog to the northern Oklahoma Panhandle, primarily around sunrise. Any fog or low clouds should burn off through the morning hours. Most of today's weather will stay quiet, with light winds and highs in the 70s.

As we progress through the day, troughing currently atop the Baja Peninsula is forecast to translate northeastward toward the southern Great Plains. This feature will place increasing southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles, and begin to draw a fetch of moisture northward from what is now Tropical Depression Vance. This increasing saturation (PWATs 1.0-1.5") in conjunction with initial rounds of disturbances will begin our opportunity for rain across much of the Panhandles late this evening through the day Friday. We could see more isolated convection form along a surface trough across the north-northwest Panhandles this afternoon, but probabilities of this occurring are only 20-30%. Most CAMs then show the main swath of light-moderate showers with embedded weak thunderstorms lifting south to north over the area, starting between midnight and sunrise Friday. As we go through the day tomorrow, a majority of the Panhandles should see light rain, with embedded pockets of heavier rain mixed in. Activity should gradually diminish through the overnight hours into Saturday, as the passage of the upper level trough axis provides a push of drier mid-level air.

Probabilities for any measurable rain remain quite promising across the Panhandles, with 60-90% POPs area wide tonight-tomorrow. The RRFS and related guidance are some of the only models leaving reason for concern, as they seem to filter in dry air before most other data sets. We will monitor this potential, but it appears to be an outlier. In general though, confidence in receiving heavy rainfall by Saturday morning is highest across the south- southeast TX Panhandle (40-80% chance for >1" rain). Probabilities for heavy rain are relatively lower for the northwest (10-40% chance for >0.5" rainfall), but isolated pockets of heavier rain will still be achievable for these areas. Given the anticipated "slow soaker" nature of this event, flash flooding potential appears relatively low. However, given the amount of rain we've received as of late keeping soils more saturated, it won't take much rain to produce nuisance flooding. Any embedded convection with higher rain rates would be the only true concern for more notable flooding.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

After a quiet Saturday, global models show additional rain chances Sunday night into Monday as another deep trough approaches from the west. This system is projected to have another strong push of moisture from the south being advected to the region, which spells 30-60% rain probabilities for a majority of the CWA. However, there does appear to be greater uncertainty with this system, as models disagree on a few synoptic features. These disagreements primarily hinge on differing track and timing of the trough, and potential for a dry slot to infiltrate the region before best lift arrives like the GFS currently shows. Regardless, it is likely that there will be at least a brief window for showers and storms Sunday-Sunday night. We can anticipate a strong cold front to charge over the Panhandles Monday as stout northwest flow aloft on the backside of the latter trough passage stretches over the region. Quick pressure rises and stacked jet dynamics behind this FROPA spells a solidly windy start to the week Mon & Tue, with sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph gusting 40 mph or possibly greater both days (10-40% chance for gusts >50 mph). This will aid cold air advection to the southern High Plains, with below average temperatures to follow on Tue and Wed. Recent trends from global models have kept sufficient moisture pooled behind the front Mon night into Tuesday, which could help generate additional showers. If cloud cover and rain are as prevalent as this data is suggesting, stronger wind gusts may become less common or less likely altogether. Model agreement on synoptic evolution further fractures beyond Tuesday, but it is becoming more apparent that our active pattern will likely come to a halt.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

There is a very low chance for mist and fog this morning that can cause IFR to VLIFR visibilities. The chances for this occurring at the terminals is low enough that only mist, at VFR levels, is currently reflected in the TAFs. Any mist or fog will burn off after sunrise leaving VFR conditions at all terminals until this evening. Then a weather system will bring rain showers and thunderstorms starting first in the southern Texas panhandle. These will then spread north to encompass the whole of the panhandles and all terminal during Friday. Heavy rainfall associated with these can lead to MVFR visibilities. Further low clouds decks can lead to ceilings of MVFR to IFR.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.