textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected Wednesday with very low RH values in the 5 to 10 percent range. Critical fire weather conditions return Thu and Fri as winds ramp back up.

- There is a low chance for a severe storm to develop in the southeast Texas Panhandle this late afternoon evening.

- Severe storm chances remain in the far southeastern to eastern Panhandles today and again Friday, depending on the position of a dryline.

-Cooler, near normal temperatures are expected over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Current GOES water vapor imagery shows a closed mid to upper level low pressure system over UT near the Four Corners Region. A stream of mid to upper level moisture can also be seen on satellite traveling up into FA from the southwest on the leading edge of the associated trough. As of this writing the far northwest corner of the combined Panhandles is the area that does not have moisture shown on water vapor.

It is this system that is helping to increase the winds today as the leading edge of the trough is producing higher winds aloft. The EC and GFS both suggest 60kts at H5 overhead currently. Though wind gusts are expected to hold short of 50 kts at the surface, the northwest clear of any cloud cover this afternoon may see gusts up to 43 kts, or 50 mph. Also, depending on where a dryline positions may introduce some 20 to 30 PoPs for the SE TX Panhandle. Current thoughts are some storms may PoP in the SE TX Panhandle, with the potential for them becoming severe will be higher to the east and southeast of the Panhandles as the dryline mix east. With the upper level moisture some models suggest showery type activity further west, maybe as far as Amarillo. However, at the surface it will remain dry leading to only virga. The best timing for this is looking to be after sunset but before midnight.

Tomorrow, when this trough comes across the Southern Great Plains and the leading edge winds exit off to the east, so will the associated surface low winds. This will decrease the winds, however, it will also introduce much drier air with Tds expected to drop into the teens. The trough may also introduce some very slightly cooler temperatures with highs around 4 to 5 degrees cooler. With the lower Tds though, RH values are expected to be much lower around 8 percent. At a minimum elevated fire weather conditions are expected for Wed afternoon. Depending on how the winds perform, there may still be some spotty critical conditions for a short time in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Temporary ridging returns for Thu and Fri with increasing winds and afternoon temperatures returning to the 80s. At the surface dry air continues for the majority of the combined Panhandles with maybe the far eastern Panhandles finding themselves on the moist side of the dryline. The dry air and increasing surface winds are expected to provide critical fire weather conditions west of the dryline. East of the dryline may see conditions favorable for thunderstorms with the potential for some severe storms. This will mainly be on Friday when the dryline is expected to retreat back into the eastern Panhandles. Thu, this dryline should be mixed well enough east that even the eastern Panhandles are expected to see RH values as low as 7 percent.

Friday should have the highest winds of the two days as another upper level trough digs down the Intermountain West and approaches the area. Winds on the leading edge of the H5 trough are progged to be 50 to 70 kts inducing a fairly potent leeside low in eastern CO/western KS. Gradient surface winds may be upwards of 30 mph sustained from this system. Friday night, this leeside low ejects off to the east/northeast and a fairly potent cold front is expected fill in behind it. Timing of this cold front is in question. If it can come in sooner, it could potentially shut down critical fire weather. If not it will pose a problem for any holdover fires with a drastic northerly winds shift. Even the north winds just behind the front at looking to be 20 mph gusting 30 mph, maybe even higher. As far as the potential for storms in the eastern Panhandles ahead of the front, current model guidance suggest that the dryline could be mixed well east of the Panhandles eliminating any chances for storms. Will have to evaluate further over the next couple of days.

Post front, Sat and Sun are looking to have much cooler temps. Instead of highs in the 80s, highs are progged to be near normal on Sat in the 60s and only gradually warmer Sun in the 70s. Critical fire weather conditions may return Sun in the northwest as winds return to the southwest and pick back up. Saturday through Monday, conditions are progged to remain dry, free from any significant rainfall. Temperatures are only expected to be a couple degrees warmer on Monday compared to Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with breezy and gusty southwest winds. Gust may exceed 30 kts but should remain less than 40 kts. Winds are not expected to drop off until after 00Z with winds potentially falling below 10 kts after 06Z Wednesday. High clouds are expected to continue with a slight chance for some virga in the area around KAMA and KGUY now through 03Z Wed.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Winds are expected to drop off for tomorrow. However, southwest to west winds will help bring in lower Tds. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow, however with such low Tds moving in min RH is expected to bottom out near 7 percent for Wed leading to elevated fire weather conditions at a minimum. Winds should stay low enough to not need a Red Flag Warning for Wed.

Winds do pick back up for Thu increasing the chances for critical fire weather conditions as RH values see a poor recovery Wed night and drop back to the 5-10 percent range on Thu afternoon. Fuels are expected to degraded and become even more volatile with so many dry and windy days this week. Thu night a dryline may retreat into the southeast combined Panhandles making RH recoveries better a portion of the eastern Panhandles. Areas west of this dryline feature may only see RH recover to the 30-40% range.

An approaching system Friday will introduce even higher southwest to west winds around 30 mph sustained with gusts potentially up to 50 mph. RH values are looking to once again drop into the 8 to 12 percent range Friday afternoon after a dryline mixes east out of the area. This system approaching Fri is expected to also bring a fairly robust cold front with 20 to 30 mph sustained winds just behind the front Friday night. The front has been expected to show up later in the day Friday, however, there are some models that suggest it could show up early and even be through Amarillo by noon. Will have to watch and see, cause humidity will recover quite a bit behind the front and limit overall fire weather conditions despite having some strong winds.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007- 011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.