textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the Panhandles throughout Sunday. Expect this activity to come to an end by the late evening hours.

- Watching for a strong cold front to move through the Panhandles this coming weekend, bringing with it what could be the coldest air of the season thus far.

UPDATE

Issued at 515 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Rain showers have largely exited the area at the time of this writing. Some hi-res models continue to suggest a shower or two may reach the far western Panhandles before decaying and a few may reach the southeast this evening. Have kept in mentions of PoPs for the southeast for now given that potential scenario.

Forecast guidance has increased the potential for fog tonight, mainly for the central and eastern combined Panhandles. Plenty of surface moisture is in place and some locations are already reaching 95-100 percent RH values early this evening. Fog mentions have been added to the ongoing forecast for this evening through tonight, with the highest chances for the southeastern and eastern Texas Panhandle. Dense fog will also be possible, but for how long and what areas remain uncertain so a Dense Fog Advisory will not be issued at this point. Fog will decrease from west to east overnight as winds become westerly and bring in slightly drier air at the surface.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across the Panhandles as an upper-level trough approaches the area. This activity will continue moving northeast as the favorable forcing progresses east and dry air moves in from the west. Expecting the rain to move out of the area by the late evening hours.

As the surface low associated with the upper-level system moves off to the east, a weak cold front will move in from the northwest through the day Monday. Given the quickly rising heights aloft and anticipated sunny sky, temperatures will still be able to warm into the upper-50s in the northwestern Panhandles to upper-60s in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures Monday night will drop into the 30s with some lows around 30 degrees expected in the northern Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper-level trough will move across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Tuesday night while a cold front moves south through the Great Plains. Latest model guidance has sped up the timing of the cold front compared to yesterday, with the front moving in to the northern Plains in the early afternoon and through the Panhandles by the early evening. The NAM, which sometimes handles these cold fronts better, is at least few hours quicker than the global models. Should this happen, expect highs to be cooler than currently forecast. Will leave the highs alone for now, but they may need to be adjusted downward in the coming days. Otherwise, breezy/gusty winds will be possible along and behind the cold front due to a steep pressure gradient.

A shortwave trough within northwesterly flow aloft could result in the development of a surface low in northeastern New Mexico on Wednesday which could result in some 10-20 mph sustained southerly/southwesterly winds. The latest NBM has highs in the upper- 40s to low-50s, but if those stronger southwesterly winds verify, temperatures could warm further into the 50s than the NBM is letting on.

Heights aloft are expected to rise on Thursday and Friday as a ridge builds over the region in response to a shortwave trough that approaches through the Southwestern US as another trough dips into the Western US. Not expecting much, if anything, in terms of rain from the first trough; however, indications are that it could be breezy across the area. A cold front will move in as the first trough departs.

Will have to watch the second trough that looks to impact the area through the weekend. Although there is some significant timing differences that one would expect for being 6+ days out, there is broad agreement among operational and their ensemble members that an Arctic front could move into the Panhandles as early as Saturday but more likely on Sunday. Will also have to watch to see if sufficient moisture is drawn in with this system because, if so, snow will be possible given that sufficiently cold air will likely be in place.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 354 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A weather system has passed across the panhandles earlier today producing rainfall across much of the area. This will serve as a moisture source that can produce both low clouds and fog in the panhandles. All terminals have a moderate chance of seeing a low level cloud deck of roughly MVFR to IFR conditions form during the evening and early overnight hours. The deck is expected to shift to the east and erode away as drier air pushes into the panhandles during the mid overnight hours. However the rain has a low to moderate chance of forming fog mainly in the eastern panhandles. Currently the threat was not deemed high enough to put into the TAFs. If any station did get the fog to form on station it would be KAMA. A cold front then pushes across the panhandles during the morning hours of Monday bringing drier air. This will firmly improve conditions to VFR for all stations. The passage of the front will also bring gusty northwesterly winds for all terminals for the late morning through to the evening.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.