textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 829 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

-Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions will continue to be a concern Sunday and again Wednesday through Thursday as we continue to remain dry and at times breezy.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 829 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Latest GOES water vapor imagery and shortwave IR show the cold front accelerating southward as surface winds continue to ramp up. A fairly shallow plume of dust is showing up on the latest GOES Dust RGB moving south southeast through Hartley, Dallam, Sherman and Texas counties and this is where wind gusts over 50mph have been measured (peak of 69 mph at DHT ASOS, although this is significantly higher than surrounding observations as of this writing). Webcams in the area show mainly just hazy conditions with ASOS visibility at KDHT only briefly down to 4SM before coming up to 7SM. Thus, a dust advisory shouldn't be needed at this time. We will continue to monitor wind gusts to make sure upgrades to the current wind advisory is not needed.

The cold front is producing some high based thunderstorms in Collingsworth County, and with limited CAPE but DCAPE around 1500 J/kg, will need to watch closely for severe wind gusts with those storms. This are forming behind the dryline, so they have very limited moisture to work with and aren't expected to produce much if any measurable precipitation.

Winds will begin dropping off gradually between 06z and 12z, with most locations below 15 kts by sunrise. Much colder airmass will settle over the area and cloud cover should be dissipating to allow for radiational cooling. Freeze Warnings look good for tonight, but may need to consider Frost Advisory if winds can drop off quick enough for areas that don't have a Freeze Warning. Temperatures are expected to recover back into the 60s later this afternoon, and with light winds, should make for a nice day to be outside.

The main upper level trough moving across this plains tonight will shift east over the OH and MS Valleys by early Saturday night, with broad northwest flow overspreading the plains. The surface high pressure will stay in the area through tonight which will help keep winds light and clouds minimal, so another decent radiational cooling setup and potential for freezes. The surface high will shift east on Sunday with lee troughing over the Raton Mesa, and a tight pressure gradient over the Panhandles. Thus, breezy winds will resume on Sunday with temperatures rising into the 70s. Unfortunately, the airmass remains very dry, so elevated to critical fire weather will return Sunday (see Fire Wx discussion below).

Ward

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 829 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Upper level ridging begins moving over the area through the middle of next week which will lead to an upward trend in our temperatures and breezy dry conditions. The ridge looks to break down towards the end of the week, but no strong signals for rain are in the forecast at this time. Instead, critical fire weather looks to be the main threat, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

Ward

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Northerly winds will remain gusty for another hour or two but will continue to trend downward through sunrise. Gusts around 25 to 35 knots can be expected through about 08z. Wind will drop to around 10 to 15 knots by sunrise and remain northerly until tonight when they will veer around the dial and eventually become southerly. VFR conditions will prevail.

Ward

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 829 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Sunday looks to feature the return of breezy southwest winds and very dry airmass as temperatures begin warming back above normal. While we don't expected anything overly concerning, elevated to low end critical conditions can be expected Sunday with RFTIs around 3-5. Very to little to no improvement in the fuel dryness can be expected through the next several days, with ERC staying around the 90th percentile.

A more concerning fire weather setup may emerge around Thursday as ridging breaks down with a shortwave trough and compact but strong mid level jet streak. The timing of this system and the exact magnitude and placement of its features will determine what areas may see higher end critical conditions once again.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001>020-317.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001>003-006- 007.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TXZ001>004-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001>003.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001>003.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for OKZ001>003.