textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

-Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through the weekend, with locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible.

-Heat Advisory for Friday afternoon for Palo Duro Canyon where high temperatures up to 105 degrees are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Still seeing a few scattered thunderstorms this Thursday evening for portions of the southeast Texas Panhandle due to a weak perturbation in the H500 W/SW flow. Reports of rainfall totals in some locations topping out around three quarters of an inch from slow moving and training storms. Latest 00Z AMA RAOB data sampled 1.33" for our PWAT values so that puts us in the 75-99th percentile for PWAT climo for our area, so when storms do form, they are capable of heavy rainfall rates. After a break in the activity as storms decrease in intensity and coverage overnight tonight, diurnally driven lift , and with W/SW flow around western periphery of main H500 high advecting perturbations, we should see more widespread 20-40 POPs for thunderstorm development. We also included the eastern Panhandles in a 15-30 POPs, based off where old outflow boundaries decayed the previous night, which can act as a local area of lift for storms by Friday afternoon. Any robust storms will have the potential of strong downburst winds and/or heavy rainfall rates which could produced localized flooding. High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s to a few locations in the 100-105 degree range, where PDC has a Heat Advisory for 105 degree potential by Friday afternoon. Similar setup to start the weekend on Saturday, with highest rain chances for our area closest to the NM stateline where the best moisture transport axis will set up. Highs on Saturday could be a degree or two cooler compared to Friday with highs ranging from 95-103.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Latest global model data continue to show a potential range of the main H500 high to meander between the central Plains and mid Mississippi River valley through the remainder of the forecast period. Any daily rain chances, if any, would favor the far western Panhandles, while the remainder of the Panhandles remain mostly dry. Above average temperatures expected to continue through the remainder of early September.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Monitoring the potential for VCTS conditions at KAMA/KDHT between 18Z and 00Z Saturday, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Winds will generally range from SE to SW at 5-15 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.