textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least early next week.

- Low chance (15-30%) for scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.

- Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The weekend forecast remains focused on continued heat, as well another outflow boundary that could spark spotty thunderstorms this afternoon-evening. High temperatures are expected to stay roasting in the 99-109 range for a majority of the Panhandles this weekend, although today's boundary and cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees cooler across the north. Shower and storm chances return to the northern Panhandles tomorrow evening, but breezier winds will leave elevated fire weather conditions for a majority of the forecast area.

Morning satellite and surface observations show a remnant outflow boundary from overnight convection currently progressing over the northern and central Panhandles, continuing to push south. Hi-res CAM trends stall this boundary along and south of the I-40 corridor through the day, serving to initiate scattered storms along and south of it. Much like the past couple of days, this activity would be spotty in nature, but new convective outflow boundaries will initiate random storm development through the evening (20% POPs along and south of I-40). Given forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, downburst severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard with this activity. PWATs >1.00" are present as well today, so localized heavy downpours are also feasible for those lucky enough to receive it. Unfortunately, there is still very much the potential for this boundary to advance well south of I-40 into Lubbock's forecast area, which would keep a vast majority of the Panhandles dry. Many CAMs show the boundary curling back to the north over the central TX Panhandle though, which could keep some hopes for rain alive even if a majority of the boundary does stall further south.

Sunday's storm chances primarily rely on a shortwave disturbance to impinge upon the nearly 600 dam H500 ridge of high pressure placed firmly atop the region. As we suffer yet another day of scorching heat, breezy southwest winds of 10-20 mph will keep much of the south and central CWA dry. In the mid-levels, a swath of better 700mb theta-e is forecast to be in place atop the northern Panhandles when a shortwave arrives out of eastern CO & NM, which should initiate scattered convection in the afternoon and evening hours. If this shortwave pushes further south though, some rogue activity could develop south of the Canadian River Valley (20-40% POPs north and central, 10-20% POPs south). Per usual, strong downburst wind gusts are the main concern, and drier air should keep the heavy rain potential on the lower side.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Could the Panhandles truly see a pattern shift next week to provide more rain opportunities and heat relief? Several global models continue to suggest that the answer is yes, but don't get your hopes up for a widespread gullywasher or true "cool down". The work week will start off solidly dominated by high pressure, with triple digit heat holding steady. But long range data does show troughing over the Great Lakes region sagging southward by midweek, which would suppress high pressure further southwest over El Paso. This synoptic pattern would allow northwest flow aloft to provide better disturbances and weak fronts for the region, especially for the northern combined Panhandles. Ensemble members mostly agree this would increase rain chances each evening- overnight Tue-Thu, but despite favorable deep layer moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), most members suggest rainfall totals wouldn't be terribly impressive (mostly 0.50" or less). Temperatures are progged to decline to the 90s Wed-Thu, but not for long as widespread triple digits are favored to resume through the end of the week. In summary, we have reason to be hopeful for better weather next week, but the expectation is that most locations are more likely to maintain relatively hot and dry conditions.

Harrel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms south of Amarillo should come to an end in the next 1-3 hours and then a quiet night expected across the panhandles. VFR conditions expected through the night. Afternoon showers and storms should form again Sunday but to soon to put into the TAF. Will be able to better refine this during the morning.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ004-005- 008>010-012>015-017>020-317.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ015-018>020-317.

OK...None.