textproduct: Amarillo

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Lightning activity appears to be on the decrease associated with the showers and thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico. The expectation is for this activity to diminish near the state line but a couple of stray showers may move into our western CWA for a short period of time this evening before dissipating. Plains low level jet has kicked in and extends from western TX into western KS. Current area VAD wind profiles showing 850mb winds of 45kt at MAF and AMA and 55kt at DDC. Sfc dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s across most of the panhandles and portions of eastern New Mexico. Monday looks to be another warm day across the region with highs likely reaching the upper 80's and lower 90s in favored areas (Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, areas in the eastern panhandle). Subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow could produce a few widely scattered thunderstorms Monday evening from just north of Clovis to near Spearman. Confidence in this scenario is not high but it is a possibility.

Tuesday is looking to becoming a little more active as these subtle short waves encounter a more moderately unstable air mass. Higher resolution forecasts are showing scattered thunderstorms developing in mainly the eastern half of the panhandles. SPC has continued the slight risk for this area and WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rain as PWAT values will be increasing as moisture returns north.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Lightning activity appears to be on the decrease associated with the showers and thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico. The expectation is for this activity to diminish near the state line but a couple of stray showers may move into our western CWA for a short period of time this evening before dissipating. Plains low level jet has kicked in and extends from western TX into western KS. Current area VAD wind profiles showing 850mb winds of 45kt at MAF and AMA and 55kt at DDC. Sfc dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s across most of the panhandles and portions of eastern New Mexico. Monday looks to be another warm day across the region with highs likely reaching the upper 80's and lower 90s in favored areas (Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, areas in the eastern panhandle). Subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow could produce a few widely scattered thunderstorms Monday evening from just north of Clovis to near Spearman. Confidence in this scenario is not high but it is a possibility.

Tuesday is looking to becoming a little more active as these subtle short waves encounter a more moderately unstable air mass. Higher resolution forecasts are showing scattered thunderstorms developing in mainly the eastern half of the panhandles. SPC has continued the slight risk for this area and WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rain as PWAT values will be increasing as moisture returns north.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The main upper low and trough in the western U.S. will begin to swing through the area Wednesday which will lead to much higher chances of rain over the eastern half of the panhandle. At the same time a cold front will be pushing down from the north and by evening should be moving into the region. This will enhance showers and thunderstorms as there will be a general area of low pressure across southeast CO/southwest KS and other boundaries to provide focus for storms. As the cold front moves through and winds become northerly the precipitation should begin to move to the east and slowly out of the area. Even by Thursday morning there could still be activity in the far southeastern portion of our area.

Due to the clouds and precip Wednesday should only see high temps in the 70s through the area. By Thursday high temperatures will be in the upper 60s over the western third of the panhandle and by Friday high temps will likely be in the upper 50's to low 60's all areas. Will see low temps by Saturday morning in the mid to upper 30's over many areas and low 40's in the southeast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours. Breezy, southwesterly winds continue this afternoon and portions of the evening across the region. Wind gusts today could still reach up to 35 kts, but winds should die down by sunset. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to set up west of the TAF sites this evening and chances for any site to be directly impacted are still low (10%). Trends will be monitored to see if any of this activity could progress further east. If so, amendments will be necessary. Low level wind shear has a lower chance of occurring tonight as winds shouldn't have much issue mixing down fully to the surface.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.