textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandles on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. There is a very low chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

- High temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees is expected throughout this week. Expecting highs to increase further as we head into the holiday weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The stagnant large-scale weather pattern will continue into Monday: an upper-level ridge will be centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a longwave trough over the Western US with embedded shortwaves rotating around the base. A surface low will develop in eastern Colorado as a surface trough once again pushes east through the Panhandles, and it should settle in the eastern or central Panhandles by late afternoon. 850mb temperatures will be between what was observed on Saturday and Sunday, which backs up roughly what the NBM is giving; upper-90s to low-100s. Can't entirely rule out an isolated 105 degree reading, but an additional limiting factor for seeing more widespread 100s is that cirrus is favored across a chunk of the central and eastern Panhandles in the afternoon. That should mostly hold temperatures in check, and it appears that a heat advisory will not be needed for Monday.

Unlike the past few days, there will be a weak and subtle shortwave that should provide sufficient mid-level forcing (PVA) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop, particularly in the vicinity of the surface trough. Forecast soundings with initial development show modest CAPE within a well-mixed thermodynamic profile, and weak wind shear (effective shear 10-15 kts). As storms progress eastward into greater moisture and instability, storms will intensify with an increasing threat for small hail. Storms should begin weakening after sunset, but showers and isolated thunderstorms could persist until around Midnight before fully dissipating. Overall, can't entirely rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph, but the threat is lower than previous days.

Tuesday, expecting scattered cirrus to move across the Panhandles through the day. Meanwhile, the surface trough is unlikely to mix much further east than the far western Panhandles. These factors, combined with cooler 850mb temperatures, will result in temperatures more into the low/mid-90s across the southern and eastern Panhandles, and mid/upper-90s across the west and north. By the late afternoon hours, a negatively tilted 700mb shortwave trough is favored to cross through southeastern Colorado which should kick off a wave of convection across the Panhandles. Virga with strong winds will be possible west of the surface trough, but any convection that moves across or develops east of the surface trough will strengthen. There should be modest speed shear associated with this system which could allow for some tilt in the storms, suggesting a threat for at least small hail. Any severe threat will depend on the magnitude of instability that ultimately develops, which will also depend on the quality of low-level moisture. Therefore, cannot rule out strong to severe thunderstorms but there are details that need to be worked out. Shower and/or thunderstorm activity could linger through a portion of Tuesday night.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The Western US trough will be situated further east compared to previous days, placing the Panhandles more within the 40-60 kt 300mb jet and 20-40 kts at 500mb. Another shortwave trough could skirt the northwestern Panhandles later in the afternoon and encourage thunderstorms to develop. There should be scattered mid/upper-level clouds across much of the area, but still should be able to see 1000- 2000 J/kg MLCAPE come to fruition. Effective shear looks weak at this time, around 10-20 kts despite the decent upper-level speed shear. Still, could see some strong winds and small hail across the area. Heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorm, especially in the east; can't rule out localized flooding.

The persistent Western US trough is expected to lift northward Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing the ridge to expand westward to encompass the Panhandles. This will cut off any meaningful precipitation chances and will embark the area on a warming trend. Currently expecting highs to reach into the upper-90s to mid-100s for the 4th of July.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the TAF sites for today. All sites will continue to see gusty southerly to southwesterly winds through the day into this evening with sustained winds around 15-20kts and gusts to 30kts. Afternoon showers and storms are forecast to occur today with potential to affect KAMA mostly, though confidence in that is too low at this time but have continued a PROB30 in the TAF to cover this potential.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.