textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 557 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Another disturbance could bring additional rainfall overnight, but average rainfall amounts should be less than an inch and not pose too much of a flooding concern.

- A digging trough interacting with the remnants of Hurricane Polo could set the stage for another heavy rain event across the area by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery showing the dwindling area of precipitation across the region as a short wave trough moves across the area. This trough will help break down the high pressure over east Texas and in its wake another trough will lift out. Large scale outflow is arcing from near CDS to near MAF. With a worked over air mass and stable conditions in its wake it should take several hours for any recovery to take place. Therefore a partly sunny and dry afternoon and early evening is expected. The NAM is showing a shortwave trough to move across the area overnight. This could generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight generally from the northeast panhandle southwest towards the Amarillo area. There are spatial differences between the HRRR and RRFS however they both generate convection overnight. SPC does have a marginal risk on Saturday for mainly the southeastern panhandle. The main threat would be wind but in this situation some hail can't be ruled out. If this scenario does play out then the anticipation is for it to develop in the late afternoon or early evening....and probably not last too long in our area. Temperatures will rebound this weekend about 10 degrees from where they are today. This means highs generally in the mid 80s expected Saturday thru Monday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Interesting long term forecast shaping up as a combination of factors could come together to produce another heavy rain event across the area. The global models are trending towards a solution of a a digging trough moving into southern California and Hurricane Polo getting caught up in the flow ahead of this trough. Will monitor trends through the weekend but at this time a potent digging trough and potential tropical moisture from the remnants of a hurricane could impact the area by at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will cool back into the 70s in the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites through the period. There does look to be potential for additional showers or storms to move through the region after 06Z through about 12Z. These may affect KDHT and KGUY the most, but cannot rule out KAMA being affected as well. In addition, while not in the forecast right now, we will be looking at fog potential given the recent rainfall across the region.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.