textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of the Panhandles through the next 24-36 hours. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

- Lows in the upper-20s to mid-30s is expected Friday night which may lead to frost or freeze headlines being required.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

An upper-level trough is set up over the Four Corner states this evening with an upper-level trough set up over the Southeastern US. With plentiful moisture in place over the region, waves of vorticity are expected to move in from the southwest over the next 24-36 hours. This will favor multiple rounds of thunderstorms, mostly across the southeastern half of the Texas Panhandle. However, there are complexities in this forecast that will affect the timing and strength of the rounds of thunderstorms through Wednesday night.

This evening, a cold front is moving in from the north while a remnant outflow boundary is apparent across portions of the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms may continue to develop across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle through much of the rest of the night while the rest of the combined Panhandles stay dry due to a general lack of forcing. This will likely continue through around 4 AM when another round of upper-level forcing moves in from the southwest. Expecting thunderstorms to develop in northwestern Texas and move into the CWA around dawn. Some CAMs are suggesting growth into a cluster, or even an MCS, after sunrise and into the morning hours with the potential for some strong wind gusts.

Rounds of thunderstorms are favored to continue across the southeastern Texas Panhandle through Wednesday morning and potentially through the afternoon as vorticity streams through. Barring a significant break between rounds of thunderstorms, the main concern will be flooding / flash flooding. This is due to very high precipitable water values, between 1.75" to 2.00", tall / skinny CAPE, and already saturated soil.

Wednesday afternoon, expect there to various mesoscale and synoptic features across the Panhandles. This includes a stalled front (likely to be in the vicinity of the Canadian River Valley) and an outflow boundary. Meanwhile, the jet streak associated with the upper-level trough is expected to set up in a south-southwest/north- northeast fashion across northeastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado. This puts the Panhandles in a favorable position for forcing, in addition to the 700mb and 500mb vorticity moving in from the southwest. This should set the stage for thunderstorm activity across the Panhandles for areas not already stabilized from morning convection (directly or indirectly). Generally less limiting factors exist in the western/northwestern combined Panhandles, but afternoon thunderstorm coverage could extend into the central Panhandles as well. The threat for any kind of strong to severe thunderstorm threat will really depend on the aforementioned mesoscale/synoptic features and the ability to destabilize since there is no question that wind shear will be favorable for thunderstorm organization. Given the high precipitable water values and the likelihood for slow- moving updrafts, large hail seems quite unlikely (barring substantial destabilization) while damaging wind gusts would be the more likely hazard, in a relative sense, though it would still depend upon destabilization.

Thunderstorm activity should wane through Wednesday night as dry air aloft moves in. A potent cold front will advance into the area from the north late Wednesday night.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A potent upper-level trough will progress east into the Great Plains through Thursday with a potent cold front moving into the Panhandles. A steep pressure gradient will exist behind the front with a 40-45 kt LLJ. This will create windy conditions across the Panhandles on Thursday as cooler air surges in. A Wind Advisory may eventually be needed for at least a portion of the northwestern combined Panhandles.

A much cooler-than-average day is expected on Friday with highs in the 50s, though there are some ensemble members that suggest highs could be in the 40s for portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle. At this time, that is a very low probability (around 10%). Winds will be breezy throughout the day but will begin to weaken in the afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Frost and freeze products may be needed for Friday night as lows are currently forecast to drop into the upper-20s to mid-30s.

The upper-level trough will track into the Great Lakes/northeastern US Saturday morning while an upper-level ridge builds over the Western US with a cut-off trough over the Southwestern US. Temperatures will warm through the weekend as the trough potentially begins to move eastward toward the Panhandles. Depending on the quality of moisture return, we could see showers and thunderstorms return into the region.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

We are watching for showers and storms to impact terminals today, with multiple PROB30 groups included to account for low confidence in coverage and persistence of activity. MVFR to LIFR ceilings will be in place over the next 24 hrs, with occasional brief improvements to VFR. Amendments will likely be needed throughout the day for changing conditions. Winds out of the south at times will shift out of the northwest later in the period as a cold front moves through, especially at KDHT and KGUY.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ010-014-015-019-020.

OK...None.