textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Thunderstorms, some of which could be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across the central and eastern Panhandles through mid evening.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the western Panhandles on Saturday due to breezy wind, dry conditions, and warm temperatures.

- Daily thunderstorm chances return Monday through Thursday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

UPDATE

Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Low level dry air combined with poor timing of an upper level shortwave trough are resulting in a non favorable airmass over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The 18z KAMA observed sounding showed very poor mid level lapse rates, low instability, and very dry low levels; all of which are contributing to confidence in storms, especially severe storms, decreasing quickly this afternoon. A few storms may still form through early this evening, but they are not expected to be as widespread as previously thought. Based on observed trends as well as the latest CAMs, have decreased rain/storm chances the rest of the day. The rest of the forecast remains on track at this time.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Mid level cloud cover continues to stream in over the region early this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are developing out ahead of an upper level shortwave trough that is moving northeast across NM into west TX. Not much, if any, of the rain is reaching the ground with any of this activity thus far. That is due to low level dry air that is leading to the light rain being evaporated before reaching the ground. The very light rain may also be aiding in mixing that low level dry air to the surface. The CAMs are picking up on this potential which leads to a pocket of dry air across the western and southwestern TX Panhandle this afternoon. That will be something to keep a close eye on as that will lead to a lesser threat for severe storms wherever the potential dry pocket sets up.

Further east across the Panhandles, the moisture is higher and should remain that way throughout the afternoon. The east central and eastern Panhandles have the higher potential for severe storms today, which is now shown in the Day 1 severe storm outlook from SPC. Higher instability values and moisture should be in place to lead to at least scattered storms, some of which could be severe. The primary hazards today will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. The large hail threat should decrease with time, especially once the storms form a line which is what is expected the further east they become. The storms and severe storm threat should end by mid evening as the storm activity exits off to the east.

A leeside surface low should develop on Saturday afternoon leading to breezy wind throughout much of the Plains, including for the Panhandles. Breezy wind out of the southwest up to 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are expected and the southwest wind will usher in drier air at the surface. The lack of cloud cover along with drier air will lead to temperatures warming up on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The combination of warm, windy, and dry conditions may lead to elevated fire weather across the central and western Panhandles on Saturday. Otherwise, the weather should be pretty quiet other than the breezy wind. There is a very low chance for a shower or storm to develop across the southeastern TX Panhandle and quickly move into OK, but chances are too low to have storm mentions at this time.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Upper level height rises are expected throughout the day on Sunday as ridging builds across the southern US. The lack of cloud cover along with drier surface conditions will lead to temperatures being a few degrees warmer than Saturday. A few locations may even reach the 100 degree mark on the last day of May.

Even though ridging continues to build across the central US during the work week, the central axis of the ridge should be to the east of the southern High Plains, leading to southwest flow aloft with low pressure systems digging south over the SW CONUS. Upper level flow will be weak through the entire week, however, Gulf of America moisture should continue to surge north towards west Texas during this time frame. Shortwave troughs embedded in the flow may lead to daily afternoon shower and storm chances during the work week. Even though the wind shear will be weak, there may be enough instability to generate marginally severe storms next week. Those details will become more clear as we get closer to next week. High temperatures should be a bit cooler next week given the higher surface moisture, cloud cover, and storm chances. On the flip side, overnight lows should be quite warm mid to late week given the increased surface moisture.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Main aviation concern will be the potential for thunderstorms near KAMA this afternoon. Confidence is not high, but enough to warrant a PROB30 for storms through early this evening. If a storm moves over the site, strong wind gusts and large hail cannot be ruled out. Outside of any storms, the wind will increase out of the south to southwest with gusts up to 20-25 kts through early this evening. The wind should decrease to around 10 kts for the rest of this TAF period but will become gusty at or shortly after the end of this 24 hour TAF cycle. Cloud cover will clear out towards the end of this 24 hour period.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.