textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the New Mexico state line this afternoon. Though severe storms are not anticipated, would not rule out isolated strong to severe wind gusts.

- Rain chances continue through the forecast period with Tue and Tue night having the best chances. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Upper level ridging expected to continue today with afternoon highs progged in the upper 80s to lower 90s. An approaching shortwave trough will be brining PWATs above 100 percent to NM and into the western third to half of the combined Panhandles for today. Later in the day into the overnight hours PoPs will begin to increase especially across the western combined Panhandles. Lift will begin to increase late this afternoon into evening allowing for potential showers and thunderstorms in the western combined Panhandles. Overnight additional ripples in the leading edge of the approaching trough may increase chances for rain further east going into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will have the higher PoPs as activity is expected to increase across the combined Panhandles Tue into Tue night. Continued moisture advection, and PVA from the shortwave will lead to potentially good coverage of showers and thunderstorms through Tue. Thanks to the lack of winds aloft shear will be weak and overall CAPE will be limited. Therefore, not anticipating any severe storms Tue into Tue night. The best shot at anything severe will be later today with potential inverted V soundings in the west. So will not rule out a rogue severe wind gust at the onset of thunderstorm activity. With increasing cloud cover, and weakening of the ridge, Tue afternoon temperatures are expected to be held back a bit in the 70s to the west and lower 80s to the east.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Wed, the combined Panhandles are expected to still be under the influence of the aforementioned shortwave trough with additional ripples aloft coming across. Therefore, additional rain and cloud coverage is expected to keep afternoon highs in the 70s to lower 80s once again. PoPs are not as high as Tue night. However, Wed continues with 20 to 60 PoPs, mainly favoring the east to northeastern combined Panhandles.

Thursday into Friday, the FA should see a bit of an upper level ridge build back over leading to warmer afternoon highs well into the 80s. Moisture especially at H7 is progged to stick around leading to at least some slight chance PoPs for Thu and Fri. However, with a ridge building back again upper level support will be lacking. Pattern may change again going into the weekend. Model guidance is not in good agreement on the timing therefore PoPs are scattered through the weekend. Even though the NBM gives 20 to 40 PoPs Friday night to begin, the coverage may still stay scarce until Sun into Sun night. Even though not everyone will see rain each day Fri night into Sun night there is at least a potential for at least some parts of the combined Panhandles to see activity through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

As of this morning, latest radar was seeing weak returns across the Western Panhandles, which could result in some sprinkles to light rain through the late morning. These conditions should not result in any major impacts to the terminals with expectation to see them stay VFR through most of the day. However by this evening, latest CAMs do see the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms to move across and impact KAMA and KDHT. While these chances are rather low, given the expected conditions and how the last two days have gone, have decided to leave a PROB30 in for the current package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.