textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Light rain showers with strong wind gusts of 40-55 mph possible tonight. Will not rule out better rainfall as we get further into the overnight hours, mainly for the eastern Panhandles.

- A pattern change will occur later this week into the weekend which will result in cooler temperatures, and widespread chances for rain and potential accumulating snow.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

After a relatively quiet but breezy day, showers and perhaps a few storms will be possible later this evening. The synoptic pattern still finds the panhandles situated beneath southwest flow aloft, ahead of an approaching system which is set to bring a change of pace to our weather. Extremely dry air is being ushered to the region thanks to breezy west-northwest winds, bringing near to below zero dew pts. Later this evening, winds shift to more southerly as a weak disturbance passes within the flow, bringing better moisture and mid-level lift to the area. This will likely help kick off scattered weak showers across at least the southeast half of the CWA, mainly after 9 PM. Initially, drier air at the surface will favor virga with strong wind gust potential, very similar to last night. A transition to actual rainfall should occur after midnight when better moisture arrives, with accumulations of a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch possible.

Don't be surprised to see some lingering returns on radar tomorrow morning, but in general, precipitation should subside for most the day. Lee cyclogenesis will generate a sfc low to our northwest, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds tomorrow afternoon out of the S-SE at 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Moisture return will persist across the eastern half of the Panhandles, where dew pts should stay in the upper 30s and low 40s. The parent system to our northwest will dig south over the Sonoran Desert tomorrow into the overnight hours, rotating subtle impulses to the region. This is when our initial wave of high precipitation chances looks to get going, as rich 700mb theta-e is advected from the Pacific. Expect showers and weak storms to spread northward across the Panhandles Thursday evening into Friday morning (60-90% chance for beneficial rain to begin).

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Friday should find the Panhandles with our first notable round of much needed April showers (but will they bring May flowers?). As the closed low progresses towards New Mexico, higher PWATs of 0.5 to 1.0" will spread over the High Plains, providing adequate fuel for moderate rainfall rates. Cloud cover is progged to keep temperatures cooler in the 50s as well, aiding in low-level saturation for more efficient rain production. Precipitation chances continue Friday afternoon, although there may be a relative lull in the action until the overnight hours.

Finally, the low itself will be at our doorstep Friday night - Saturday. This is when lift and moisture should be maximized, providing medium to high confidence in ground soaking precipitation in the form of rain and snow. Medium and long range model trends point to a slight southward shift in the track of the low, which would still bring quality rainfall to a majority of the Panhandles, but with the bulls-eye of highest totals shunted along and south of I-40. A lot of this trend greatly hinges on a cold front advancing from the NW, which will provide colder temperatures Friday night through the weekend, but it may also cut off moisture from north-northwestern Panhandles. In turn, models have suggested this could limit precipitation totals for these areas (closer to 0.50" or less). However, If the colder airmass enters with enough moisture surviving in its wake, a transition from rain to snow would occur across more of the Panhandles earlier in the day (which the Euro and Canadian seem to indicate), supporting a prolonged period of precipitation Panhandles-wide. In general, probabilities to see 1.00" of total liquid precip by Sunday morning have somewhat decreased, but remain promising for a large chunk of the region (40-70% chances favoring the southeast to south central TX Panhandle).

Focusing on the snow aspect of the forecast, this event is looking quite similar to our last snow maker back in the beginning of March: The cold core of the closed low will progress over New Mexico and pass just to our south during the day Saturday, temperatures will be very marginal near freezing, and the timing of its arrival will dictate when snow mixes in with rain or takes over as the dominant precip type. Just like that March 8 system, if this low slows down to our west or weakens, temperatures may become too warm for snow until later in the day. But if the cold air and storm system arrive early enough, snow should begin to fall earlier Saturday morning, with temperatures more conducive for heavier snowfall rates that would produce accumulations of a dusting to 1-3". It's important to remember though that this is April, and we have been experiencing warmer temperatures lately. To reference the early March event once more, this could play out just the same where we see localized heavy snowfall rates produce several inches of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces in some areas, while others only see rain and flurries that melt away quickly. The most likely hazard at this time appears to be reduced visibility due to heavy snow rates and 20-30 mph wind driven snowfall. Despite the warmer ground temperatures, we'll have to keep a close eye on the potential for slushy, snow covered roadways, wherever highest snow accumulations occur.

The system departs by Sunday, taking moisture with it and leaving us with a warming and drier trend next week. It should be a beautiful stretch of spring to help "green up" the region and hopefully bring an end to fire weather season.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 18 to 24 hours. Showers around KAMA should still hold in the VFR range, but should cigs or vis start to fall we'll amend as needed. Winds will generally be south to southeast around 10-20kts through about 18z, and then will pick up in the 20-25kt range with gusts up to 35kts from 18-03z. Thereafter, wind should come down around 10-15kts. Overall, southeast is the prevailing direction for winds. Cig/vis restrictions could start to move into MVFR/IFR after 00z as more widespread rain showers move into the Panhandles.

Weber

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Amarillo TX 42 54 30 41 / 70 70 90 100 Beaver OK 41 59 30 43 / 40 70 80 80 Boise City OK 35 53 24 37 / 20 60 90 80 Borger TX 43 59 32 43 / 60 70 90 90 Boys Ranch TX 41 56 30 39 / 50 70 90 100 Canyon TX 41 54 30 40 / 80 80 90 100 Clarendon TX 45 57 35 43 / 80 80 90 90 Dalhart TX 36 53 26 37 / 30 60 90 90 Guymon OK 38 56 27 40 / 30 60 90 80 Hereford TX 39 53 30 39 / 80 80 90 100 Lipscomb TX 43 58 33 43 / 60 80 90 90 Pampa TX 43 56 31 42 / 60 70 90 90 Shamrock TX 44 58 36 45 / 80 80 90 90 Wellington TX 45 58 38 46 / 80 80 90 90

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.