textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Light showers will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles. There is a low chance for an isolated weak thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon.

- Frost or freeze conditions will be possible Wednesday night across the central and northern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The remainder of today-tonight's weather is expected to stay relatively benign with breezy and mild conditions persisting. Models show 500mb ridging to our west sliding more solidly atop the Panhandles Monday, further promoting an early week warm up. Temperatures will rise to the 80s and low 90s through the day tomorrow, with even warmer highs in the mid 90s across the SE Texas Panhandle. This is also due in part to downsloping west winds of 15-25 mph gusting around 35 mph. Dry air should be reinforced, with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially across the Texas Panhandle. Later Monday night into Tuesday, a closed low encroaching upon the Pacific coast will deamplify the Plains ridge, setting up zonal flow for the region. This pattern will allow a stronger cold front to push south across the Panhandles. Breezy north winds of 15-20 mph will begin to aid advection of cooler air to the northern Panhandles by Tuesday morning.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The southern progression of the cold front is progged to cease somewhere over the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday, with a shallow pool of modestly improved moisture along and behind it. Weak disturbances of lift will surge ahead of the Southwest CONUS system, helping to generate rounds of spotty light showers. This equates to 40-70% chances for ANY measurable rain across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles Tuesday - Tue night. Another cold front will push through Wednesday in tandem with the arrival of the main system trough axis. This will reinforce cold air across the northern Panhandles, and perpetuate opportunities for continued light showers through Wednesday evening, if moisture manages to stick around behind front number two (30-50% POPs). Given the very shallow nature of this moisture as depicted by model forecast soundings, this again would likely support only very light rainfall, with a very low chance for some wintry precip mixing in for the far northwest Panhandles Wed morning.

High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will range from 70s in the south to 50s and 60s in the north. Morning lows will be noticeably cooler in the 30s & 40s, especially by Thu morning when freezing conditions will be possible across the northwest Panhandles. As the system exits, dry air returns and the synoptic pattern will greatly favor another warm stretch with above average temperatures through the end of the week. Moisture opportunities remain annoyingly hard to come by, although global models continue hinting at rain/storm potential with a system late this week into next weekend. Unfortunately, this system is favored to take an undesirable track relative to the Panhandles, which would make rain chances hard to believe at this time.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the 18z TAF period. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times. There could be some marginal LLWS at times tonight, but confidence is not high enough to maintain mentions in the TAFs at this time.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.