textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon across the Southern Texas Panhandles with all hazards not fully ruled out. - Extreme amounts of moisture this afternoon could lead to flash flooding concerns with any thunderstorm that develops.

- Hot temperatures are expect to continue with near to over triple digit high temperatures possible through the end of July.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Overnight showers have been slowly breaking down with the exit of the short-wave this morning. However, behind this short-wave most CAMs are in agreement that a boundary will settle somewhere across the Southern Texas Panhandles for this afternoon and evening. The final placement of this boundary will be critical for any activity today as it will be our primary lifting mechanize. In terms of atmospheric conditions for today, many CAMs continue to see almost tropical like amounts of moisture funnel into the Panhandles with PWAT values ranging from 1.5 to nearing 2 inches as you push further east. With values like that available, it would very easy for any shower to produce heavy rainfall with strong to severe thunderstorms pushing rainfall rates upwards of 3 to 6 inches per hour. Added to this is the presence of decent MLCAPE values and wind shear with most CAMs averaging around 2000 to 3000 J/kg and upwards of 30 kt of effective bulk shear. These values alongside the potential boundary interactions have made it so all hazards cant be ruled out. However, flooding is posed to take the main stage today thanks to these extreme moisture values and the potential for there to be weak storm motion thanks to the still present upper-level high and stalled boundary. Now there are still some failure modes to this activity, with the primary being the boundary moving further south than present models expect. This would obviously force the Panhandles under the area of subsidence that is following behind the boundary where activity would be much harder to lift no matter how much moisture is present. Otherwise, heat does continue to plague the Panhandles this afternoon with locations still trying to force themselves into the triple digits. In our east this heat and expected moisture can lead to areas feeling hotter than it actually is with most of the area under a Heat Advisory for the afternoon.

Moving into Saturday does see this boundary move off the Panhandles, with the upper-level high pressure system prime to take over once again for the Panhandles. However, linger moisture from today may be high enough to see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms develop once we have reach convective temperatures that afternoon. Speaking of temperatures, the holding of the upper-level high once again will see the potential for yet another day of triple-digit heat. This heat could be a bit more potent Saturday afternoon as the lesser coverage of storms could result in more areas needing heat related products.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Heat continues to be the main talking point for the extended long- term period as model agreement does not see the the upper-level high pressure over the Panhandles laying off anytime soon. With this high-pressure in place, the Panhandles will hold onto a more stagnate and dry upper-level pattern that will aid in forcing temperatures near or over the triple digit mark through the end of July. Obviously such hot temperatures over multiple consecutive days rather typical for this time of year. However, what could make this much more dangerous is that low temperatures are not fairing much better with present expectations seeing locations, such as Amarillo and Dalhart, have the potential to either break or tie their record warm low temperature each night. Expectations like these would also mean that there is very little relief occurring during overnight hours which may only amplify the risk of seeing heat related illness as each day passes. One thing that may be our saving grace over the course of next week, however, is the potential to see some shift in the upper-level high pressure. Any shift in said high could lead to moisture pushing in and creating cloud cover or isolated storms that can provide a bit of relief to the Panhandles. A few of the ensemble have even suggested the potential of some northwesterly flow that could force storms off the Southern Range starting Wednesday afternoon. Still given the present uncertainty for activity, it is becoming increasingly likely that the expected heat will primary concern for the week with the potential for long lasting heat related products becoming more likely by the day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally conditions will be VFR at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The big exception to this will be during the passage of a rain shower or thunderstorms. Heavy to torrential rainfall from these can lead to MVFR to IFR conditions. Flooding at airfields due to the rain cannot be ruled out today. The current morning rain showers and thunderstorms will most likely come to an end within the next few hours. Then a further round of rain showers and thunderstorms is expected for this afternoon and evening. This second round of storms can see strong to even severe storms that may produce large hail and damaging winds. It will remain very hot across the panhandles today with increased density altitude expected at all terminals.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-010-014-015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.