textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dangerously hot temperatures continue with widespread 100s, but a gradual decrease is expected through the weekend with upper 90s being more common.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue today through Friday, primarily in the north and western combined Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Much like yesterday, we begin the early hours of Wednesday with the remnants of storms across the northwest combined Panhandles, and potential for new activity to develop this morning further south and east along an outflow boundary (10-20% chance). Once all activity burns off, the Panhandles will be left with yet another day of sweltering heat thanks to the ridge of high pressure firmly planted atop the region. Our 8th consecutive day of triple digit temperatures in AMA is anticipated this afternoon (although it is certainly not welcomed). As a result, another heat advisory is in effect for much of the eastern and central combined Panhandles where temperatures and/or heat index values over 105 are likely. Thursday will be just as hot if not slightly hotter, with even more widespread heat products likely being needed. Record highs could occur as we should reach day 9 of consecutive triple digits.

Hi-res CAMs suggest later tonight and Thursday night will be very similar to the past couple of nights, with a swath of scattered convection moving off the high terrain of CO & NM into the Panhandles. If more aggressive guidance pans out, storm coverage for these rounds could be the highest of the week. Even then, it would still be relatively hit or miss. Deep layer moisture should remain abundant over the region, with PWATs well over 1.0-1.5", weak to modest instability (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE), and decent DCAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg). While severe storms aren't likely with these ingredients, strong wind gusts and brief heavy downpours would be achievable, primarily across the northern and western Panhandles where POPs are highest (20-50% rain chances).

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Friday's weather continues the trend of triple digit heat, along with low chances for convection off the high terrain to our west. However, many models depict the upper level ridge beginning to weaken slightly late week, allowing the arrival of a weak cold front through the day. This front is slated to provide a very minor (but very welcomed) reduction in heat for the weekend, meaning high probabilities (>70%) for temps to stay at or just below 100 both days. This may also help spark storms for the southern and western Panhandles Friday afternoon-evneing (20-40% POPs), while the northeast Panhandles are least likely to see rain as drier air gradually filters in behind the boundary.

Looking to the first week of August, global guidance shows the upper level dome of high pressure shifting slightly westward over the desert southwest. At first glance this won't change our weather all that much, with above average temperatures still highly favored each day. This pattern does however provide some hope for northwest flow aloft to bring subtle disturbances that could kick off rain opportunities. Trends from GFS ensemble members as well as average precip forecasts slightly hint that we could maintain occasional storm chances, but probabilities are overall still quite low. With no widespread gullywashers in sight, drought conditions will unfortunately persist unless a more significant synoptic pattern change can occur.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Generally VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for thunderstorms this evening mainly in the western panhandles. These can bring brief MVFR conditions to a terminal through heavy rainfall reducing visibilities. Otherwise it remains hot across the panhandles with increased density altitudes at all terminals.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-014-015-019-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.