textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Chances for thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall are increasing across the eastern combined Panhandles Tuesday evening and night (15-29%). A low 2% for tornadoes is also present, but mainly across the northeast.

- Scattered to widespread rainfall is expected throughout the day on Wednesday. Flash flood chances are increasing (15-29%), while severe thunderstorm chances remain low (5%).

- A low chance for freezing temperatures is developing across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Today, generally benign weather conditions continue as forecast. Highs this afternoon should easily reach the 80s across most of the CWA. Meanwhile, our eastern zones should raise into the lower 90s. Thunderstorm chances remain quite limited today, but HiRes models are still allowing a few storms to convect in the western TX Panhandle. Weak instability and modest mid-level lapse rates should restrict storms from growing upscale and becoming severe. Though effective wind shear should be strong today, this may actually limit thunderstorm activity if storms pulse up too slowly and are "sheared apart" due to the strong mid/upper level winds.

Tomorrow, A positively tilted trough and closed upper low will progress further east and 500 mb heights should tighten across the central and southern Plains. A N/S oriented trough will advance eastward across the combined Panhandles throughout the day. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable environment is primed for convection, starting Tuesday evening and likely lingering through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Confidence is high concerning convective initiation in our area; however, given the quicker progress of this system that recent 12Z models are showing, thunderstorms may not persist in the Panhandles very long before they move into western OK. Still, initial storm development is likely to be supercellular. Therefore, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any storm that becomes severe. An isolated tornado threat exists mainly across the NE combined Panhandles (Beaver, Lipscomb, and Ochiltree counties), but the timeframe will be quite limited to late Tuesday evening before storms move out of those areas. STP values are highest (1-3) in these areas due to a stationary surface front creating a triple-point feature with the advancing trough out of the west. Elsewhere, model guidance is pretty inconsistent with storm coverage. Though 0-1 km SRH still looks sufficient overnight, it might not line up with the timing of the thunderstorms in our area.

Heading into Wednesday morning, the severe thunderstorm threat diminishes but remains a non-zero chance. Instead, a hydro threat could begin to develop as an additional round of scattered to widespread storms moves into our CWA from the south.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Wednesday begins with overnight convection from Tuesday persisting into the morning hours and additional rounds of rain will continue through much of the day, moving from SW to NE across the Panhandles. Moist and unstable forecast soundings combined with high precipitable water values across the CWA suggest that heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard throughout the day. That alongside the possibility of training thunderstorms will promote a flash flood threat. The chances for flash flooding are the highest across the southeast TX Panhandle as those areas are most favored to receive >1.00" QPF totals. A severe thunderstorm threat cannot be completely ruled out as along as embedded thunderstorms can form within the stratiform precipitation system. Forecast soundings suggest that a low equilibrium level and elongated instability profiles will make it difficult for severe thunderstorm organization. Still, some hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the strongest of thunderstorms on Wednesday. The timing for this low potential severe threat will exist as long as day time heating is present; meaning, strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out even during the morning hours.

As we transition to Thursday, the upper level system should also continue its transition eastward. Some models have it moving out quicker than others at this time, so precipitation chances for the High Plains are still somewhat ambiguous. If the low pressure system hangs back, more of our area could be in play for rain again. If it quickly pushes east into the central Plains, precipitation chances will be much more limited. A cold front will also move through on Thursday and introduce cooler, more stable air in its wake.

Friday into the weekend, temperatures should be much cooler across the Panhandle. Highs may not even escape the 50s Friday afternoon. We are also watching the potential for freezing temperatures Saturday morning, as current forecast lows get down to the mid 30s across our northern zones.

Rangel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Late afternoon vis satellite imagery showing a couple of mdt cu streets oriented from southwest to northeast across the region. There was a brief shower earlier near Hereford and models want to develop a few tstms early this evening. 00Z AMA sounding showing a cap at this time but there may be a tstm or two develop in the next few hours. Will leave mention out of the TAF's for now as it is a low prob situation. Expect VFR and breezy conditions to persist overnight. Wind gusts will diminish but we will see sustained 10-15kt overnight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.