textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Gradual warming trend through Thursday.

- Daily thunderstorm chances start back up Tuesday evening through Friday, and may continue into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Storms on a downward trend and should be exiting our area in the next hour or two. Upper ridge will begin to take a positive tilt over the central CONUS. That will transition the mid level flow to more north and northeasterly over the Panhandles. Not a favorable setup for thunderstorms, and will likely isolate storm development to eastern NM. With 850mb temperatures on a rise the highs across the Panhandle over the next couple days will be in the mid 90s to possibly breaking 100 in a couple of the hot spots. But we should be free of precipitation given the upper level flow pattern. Will not rule out something isolated that could just occur do to localized diurnal heating an enough instability to get a rouge storm, but still less than 10 percent confidence so currently no pop mention for Monday or Tuesday afternoon at this time.

Tuesday evening has the potential to see storms in the northwest. The upper ridge will begin to be suppressed by a weather system north of the CONUS, but that will be enough to change that north to northeast flow aloft, to more of a westerly flow, add to it our subtle impulses that can track over eastern NM, bringing storms off the mountains into our area, and that will increase out pops back to 20-30 percent. With the best chances in the northwest, but will not rule out anything along the TX/NM border. As the impulse gets further east toward the central Panhandles the flow goes back to more northerly and that will likely cut off the chances that storms make it much further than the far western Panhandle on Tuesday night.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Wednesday and Thursday will be an interesting setup as we still have more of a west to northwest flow on Wednesday which will favor showers and storms off the mountains to track across the Panhandles, as well as some limited forcing from the upper disturbance tracking across the Great Lakes as the shortwave trough expands southwest down to the Southern High Plains. Thursday is very similar to Wednesday in that northwest flow continues and another wave is expected to track across the Panhandles leading to more storm chances.

Friday is a bit more tricky as we transition to a more northerly flow later in the day, but it appears that we'll be under enough northwest flow to start where the storms will track into the Panhandles, but then as the steering flow goes more northerly, and then possibly northeasterly, the lingering storms caught up in the flow could track due south and then possibly be moving from the northeast to the southwest.

The weekend is where it appears that storms could be taking a break as a massive upper ridge centered more over the Utah/Wyoming/South Dakota/Nebraska area attempt to suppress the moisture further south of the Panhandles. The key word is "attempts" because this is centered abnormally further north and east than a typical Four Corners high and on the south side of the ridge is easterly flow with ample moisture for showers and storms. Additionally, it looks like models are trying to preserve a weak cutoff low that will be anchored up against eastern NM and that could support enough lift and instability for showers and storms across the entire Panhandles.

At this time NBM has little to no pops leaning more on the ridge suppressing the storm chances, but not all deterministic models are in agreement, so confidence in a dry weekend is low. That being said, given the placement of the ridge further north and the moisture potential, the highs Friday and over the weekend may stay below 100, where the tail end of the work week will likely have highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s each day.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. KAMA will be dealing with the decaying storm over the next hour or two, but should remain VFR, and lightning activity should be minimal. Overall, TAF sites will have winds transitioning south to southeast and be in the 5 to 15kt range. Exception with the winds will be the more erratic wind direction over the first 6 hours at KAMA from the decaying storm.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.