textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot temperatures and strong to severe thunderstorms expected for Independence Day.

- Warm temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, followed by hot temperatures to close out the week.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will continue through the next 7 days, but the storm coverage will vary from day to day.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

High pressure continues to build over southern NM today with latest RAP analysis showing 595 dam H5 heights with better defined anticyclonic flow over that region. An MCS on the periphery of the high over eastern KS has sent an outflow boundary through the Panhandle region, with another boundary intersecting from the northwest. Temperatures along and south of the boundary will get hot due to compressional heating, but we have trimmed back the heat advisory based on the cooler air to the north, behind the boundary. Latest guidance suggest any 105+ F readings might be limited to PDC and perhaps a few Canadian River sites, which makes sense based on expected cloud development, so the current advisory may need to be trimmed back further. As northwest flow aloft increases this afternoon, conditions will become increasingly favorable for thunderstorms, a few of which could become severe. The main question right now is with our main lifting mechanism being this outflow boundary which continues to sag southward. As of this writing, the initial wind shift was near Hereford to Canyon to Pampa, and models suggest the boundary will stall soon with sufficient convergence to break the cap (MLCIN around -50 J/kg).

Exactly where the first storms initiate will depend on exactly where the boundary ends up, and confidence remains fairly high that the southern TX Panhandle south of Highway 60 will be in play, with storm forming as early as 2 PM. These storms will likely send outflow boundaries out with additional development favored off these new boundaries later into the afternoon and evening. There is a 700mb trough and associated theta-E channel progged across the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles and this is where conditions should be most favorable for additional scatted storm developments later in the afternoon into the evening. While effective shear should mostly stay below 30 kts, some pockets of 30+ kts is possible, especially in the north where northwest flow aloft should be slightly stronger. Thus, multicells with some supercell activity is expected, and with around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, updrafts should be strong even in the absence of better shear. High LCLs and lacking low level kinematics will keep the tornado threat very low, but can't ever rule out some landspout activity when stalled surface boundaries are involved. The biggest concern will be damaging straight line winds given large DCAPE over 1800 J/kg in some areas and mean storm motion easterly at 10 to 20 kts. Storms should decrease in intensity this evening towards dark, but an impulse rounding the upper high could send additional storms into the northwest and eventually central Panhandles overnight.

For Sunday, temperatures looks to be closer to normal with highs in the 90s. Short term models want to bring another round of storms to the area from the west later into the afternoon and evening, but intensity and overall coverage will depend on how worked over the area gets from today's activity (along with any residual boundaries in the area). A more pronounced impulse should bring some activity in by late evening, but the overall severe threat currently looks more marginal than today.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

High pressure shift westward through midweek which means periods of northwest flow aloft and continued storm chances for the Panhandle region. Right now it looks like the best chance for storm activity will be more towards the middle of the week, but isolated storms can't be ruled out on any day with some being strong to severe (wind and hail main threats). Temperatures will start in the 90s but creep up to near 100 by middle and end of week and near surface flow become more downslope.

Ward

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Main concern will be for scattered thunderstorm activity, especially around KAMA this afternoon and evening and KDHT this evening. While confidence is not high enough to include prevailing or tempo groups at this time, amendments may be needed later once exact location of storms is determined. Outflow boundaries from storms will result in changes to wind direction and speed at the terminals, possibly multiple times through the evening. Outside of storm impacts, VFR conditions with northerly winds becoming southerly this evening.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ006>008-011-012- 016-017-317.

OK...None.