textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Isolated (10-20%) storm chances today across the central and southwestern Panhandles.

- Extreme heat expected to continue into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A plume of positive H700 ThetaE advection into the southwestern and central combined Panhandles today will allow for isolated storm development. While strong lifting mechanisms are absent under the current high-pressure regime, convective temperatures are expected to be reached. Where convective temperatures are reached overlap with positive H700 ThetaE advection is where updrafts will likely survive and produce these isolated thunderstorms. Recent trends show this axis of increased moisture along HWY 60, pushing north into the north central Texas Panhandle into the evening.

The upper-level high pressure center shifts over the Panhandles tomorrow, leading to widespread subsidence. This will stifle precipitation chances, and further increase temperatures due to compressional warming. Subsidence will cover most of the Panhandles, excluding the far northwest where large-scale ascent is still slightly favored. Although steering flow will likely keep the Panhandles dry on Sunday, high-terrain initiated storms from NM could make their way into the northwestern Panhandles on Monday evening.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Upper-level high pressure continues to dominate the area through the beginning of next week. This will allow for continued triple-digit maximum daily temperatures, mid- to high-70 degree low overnight temperatures, and the continuation of heat products. However, toward the end of next week, models begin to shift the upper-level high pressure further west, placing the Panhandles in upper-level northwesterly flow. This pattern is typically favorable for active weather in the Panhandles, especially the northwest, as lee-side low pressure systems and steering flow toward the Panhandles develop. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in this scenario, and timing will become more clear as we get closer to the work week.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period. Relatively calm winds from 10-15 kts out of the S during the day, turning SW during the overnight hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010- 015-020.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.