textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis from today through Sunday.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

- Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding on today and Wednesday across the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in the Oklahoma Panhandle as of 9 AM along an apparently slowly advancing boundary, producing very heavy rainfall. Advected Layer Precipitable Water satellite imagery shows that dry air aloft (850mb-500mb) is moving northward into the Panhandles, which should eventually cause the ongoing thunderstorms to weaken and dissipate. Forcing will be weak throughout the day, and with dry air aloft advecting into much of the Panhandles, barring potentially the western Texas Panhandle, most of the area should be dry today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop on the higher terrain in New Mexico and they should work into the western/northwestern Panhandles later this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the area show 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE with around 15-30 kts effective shear, indicating the potential for multicell storms/clusters. This will result in a low-end chance for strong to severe storms that could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and half dollar size hail. There are some solutions, such as the NAM, which have MLCAPE reaching up to nearly 3000 J/kg with effective shear around 30-35 kts. If this were to materialize, the severe threat would be greater in magnitude. That is a low confidence scenario at this time.

There is uncertainty about how far east the thunderstorms will be able to make it tonight as guidance suggests that more dry air aloft will be advecting northward into the southern, central, and northern Panhandles tonight. Conditions may become more favorable for more widespread showers and thunderstorms late tonight as some mid-level forcing begins to infringe and mid-level moisture may potentially begin to advect into the eastern Panhandles.Accordingly, some CAMs do hint at convection increasing in coverage later tonight, potentially along a remnant outflow boundary. The PoPs inhereted from the NBM for tonight are much too high in the eastern Panhandles; have cut PoPs back as much as 30% across this area. Will leave mentionable PoPs in given that there are hints that the convection could ultimately overcome the dry air intrusion.

Thunderstorms should eventually weaken Wednesday morning leaving a period of dry weather through a portion of Wednesday. Several CAMs/mesoscale models (e.g., NAM 3km, WRF-ARW, WRF-NSSL, RRFS, NAM 12km) show a MCV developing from overnight convection which moves into, or near, the Panhandles through the day. This will be a feature to watch if it does develop as it will provide extra lift, especially near the MCV itself. With that said, this is a very low confidence scenario as models always struggle with when/where the MCV develops and how it tracks; especially in this weak flow regime. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon across the Panhandles, and if a MCV does develop, then the higher confidence in thunderstorm coverage will be near and east of the MCV and lower to the west (subsidence). Overall moisture through the troposphere is expected to be quiite robust with dew points in the upper-50s to mid/upper-60s and PWATs around 1.2" to 1.7". The warm and moist conditions will allow MLCAPE to rise to 2000-3000 J/kg, but effective shear values are forecast to be pitiful (10-20 kts). Single cells to multicells will be possible with wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter size hail. MCVs can locally enhance wind shear if strong enough, so won't rule out the possibility of shear being slightly stronger than described. Heavy to very heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorm. Flash flooding will be possible for locations that see training thunderstorms or multiple rounds of thunderstorms in quick succession. Through the next 36 hours, a handful of operational models (mesoscale, global, and CAMs) suggest there will be a band of rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with a bullseye perhaps exceeding that. Will not be surprised if this does pan out somewhere in the central or eastern combined Panhandles.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue through the evening and potentially into the overnight period, but the severe thunderstorm threat should diminish before Midnight.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Will not be able to rule out the possibility that a shower or thunderstorm will still be ongoing Thursday morning, but dry weather should prevail for most of the morning and a portion of the afternoon. Clouds will likely linger nonetheless which could complicate the temperature forecast. Depending on when/if clouds clear, showers and thunderstorms may develop in the Panhandles or ultimately move in from New Mexico. However, it is entirely possible that clouds linger and most will see a mild and dry day under stubborn cloud cover and/or subsidence.

A closed upper-level trough over Mexico will start to inch northeastward Thursday night into Friday. We will continue to see weak perturbations in the mid-level flow which will continue to lead to daily thunderstorm chances on Friday. By Saturday, the upper- level trough is favored to pass the Panhandles to the east. If this happens, then thunderstorm chances may be lower than the NBM is suggesting.

Highs in the upper-80s to low-90s are favored to return on Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm chances lingering in the east.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for thunderstorms in the next few hours in Amarillo, and in Dalhart and Guymon later this afternoon and evening. There is very low confidence in thunderstorms through tonight, but it is possible at all terminals especially for Dalhart and Guymon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.