textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected to persist through the weekend. With high end critical, due to higher wind, days expected Sunday and Monday.

- Severe storms may be possible Sunday and Monday in the eastern Panhandles depending on the location of a dryline.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Dry air at the surface is expected once again this afternoon. A surface boundary with some slight convergence is progged to run SSW to NNE dividing parts of the eastern combined Panhandles from the west. East of the boundary slightly higher Tds will keep minimum RH values in the 20 to 30 percent range while the west sees RH values in the 12 to 20 percent range. Despite the higher RH values in the east this is the area likely to see critical fire weather conditions this afternoon as winds are expected to be higher in the 15 to 25 mph range. This afternoon a mid level shortwave will move into the area colliding with increased H7 theta-e advection. This will help kick off some scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. With a dry surface layer, DCAPE values are progged to be in the 1500-1800 J/Kg range adding to concerns for severe wind gusts that could potentially exceed 80 mph. With the lack of moisture and such high bases to these storms expected, little precipitation is expected and should limit overall hail growth as well. Current CAMs runs suggest storms starting in the west and moving east through the late afternoon into early evening. Potentially with a second or third round. With low precipitation storms, dry lightning is a concern for fire starts today.

Thunderstorm activity should conclude by 10 PM tonight with maybe a lingering isolated virga shower somewhere in the area. Surface winds in the eastern Panhandles may hang on to breezy south to southeasterly winds in the 15 to 20 mph range while the west sees winds fall to near 10 mph. A surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Panhandles into SE CO and NE NM. This low is expected to keep winds near 15 to maybe 20 mph for parts of the eastern Panhandles out of the south for Friday afternoon. The northwestern Panhandles are expected to see more northerly winds NW of the low. Although chances are really low, would not completely rule out some isolated pop up showers/storms in the east tomorrow as well. PoPs may only be around 10 with such low probabilities of measuring 0.01".

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Dry and hot conditions continue through Saturday, with maybe some elevated fire weather conditions continuing in the southwestern TX Panhandle. An upper level system will approach the Panhandles Sunday bringing with it stronger winds increasing the likelihood of widespread critical fire weather conditions. This system may bring even stronger winds Monday. Probability of gusts exceeding 50 mph increase into the 20 to 60 percent range on Monday for the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles. Also, for Sunday and Monday, severe storms will be a possibility in the far eastern combined Panhandles depending on where a dryline sets up.

This aforementioned system will also bring some cooler air for Tue and beyond. Afternoon temperatures in the 90s to even lower 100s in some areas, will lower into the 80s for Tue and Wed. PoPs remain low through the long term mainly relying on the afternoon heat to dry convection. However, there are some hints that that may change going into Wed night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. However, some low precipitation thunderstorms may impact the terminals between 21Z and 02Z Friday. Confidence is low at this time especially for KDHT and KGUY. Therefore, have not mentions in the TAFs at this time, and may need amendments. Please not, due to the nature of dry surface boundaries, these storms will have a potential to produce severe and erratic winds at times. The potential for small hail will exist too, with the probability of large hail staying fairly low.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Elevated to low end critical fire weather conditions will continue into the weekend. Sunday and Monday will be the big days to watch as winds are expected to ramp up. RFTIs may reach as high as 7 especially in the west. A 10 to maybe 20 percent chances exist in the northwest Panhandles to surpass 50 mph gusts on Sunday. Monday those probabilities pick up to 40 to 60 percent with a probability around 20 percent for Amarillo on Monday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-009- 010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.