textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Temperatures warm into the 90s by Tuesday with maybe some areas like PDC reaching 100, with these warm temperatures potentially lasting for several days.

- Very low chances for precipitation exist for the rest of the week at this time. However, will have to watch out for some pop- up thunderstorms especially on Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

North winds behind a front, along with prolonged cloud cover will keep the combined Panhandles on the cool side today with highs in the 60s. A positively tilted shortwave trough will continue to swing into the area this morning and early afternoon. As of this writing the northeastern Panhandles have already seen scattered thunderstorms produced by this upper level support. Some of which have tapped into some instability and produced hail the size of quarters to ping pong balls. CAMs, suggest additional activity developing across the southern TX Panhandle just before or around noon. Some elevated CAPE may be present allowing for storms to produce hail between dimes and quarters with initial storm development. However, model guidance suggest any CAPE will transition southward and should see mainly showers and thunderstorms with maybe some pea size hail possible. Storm motion is expected to be west to east with the southeast TX Panhandle seeing showers and storms through much of the early to mid afternoon before clearing out.

This evening clouds should clear out from the north to south with winds dying off quite a bit to around 5 mph. Surface winds will then begin to transition back to the south by tomorrow morning. With clear skies and calm winds some areas in the northwest Panhandles may be able to fall below 37 degrees briefly. However, lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to the northwestern Panhandles and lower 40s to the southeast Panhandles.

H5 heights today are expected to be around 576 dam and should begin to rise overnight to around 582 dam as an upper level ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. Monday after, temperatures are expected to rise back into the 80s, with maybe the east stopping short of 80, under this ridge and southwest surface winds. Tomorrow night, lows are expect to be warmer around the low to mid 50s across the combined Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday, H5 heights are progged to rise to around 588 to 590 dam. H85 temperatures are progged to rise to around 30 degrees C in the western Panhandles. Afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s with maybe some of the notorious hot areas like PDC reaching the lower 90s. A weak surface low will traverse the area late in the day to overnight period. Behind this surface low a weak cold front is expected to bring light north to northeast winds overnight with higher Tds in the 40s. This will be brief as southwest winds return Wed and afternoon highs reach back into the 90s.

The rest of the extended period is expected to be impacted by the upper level ridge with temperatures remaining in the 90s. By Thu morning, overnight lows are only expected drop to around 60. Overnight lows are progged to continue to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal going into the weekend. There is little to no precipitation expected through the extended per the NBM. Surface conditions may be too dry for any meaningful amount of rain, but deterministic models are hinting about a shortwave trough moving through the ridge causing some storm activity Thursday afternoon into evening. Will be anticipating potential virga showers late Thu for now, but will continue to monitor for trends in model guidance.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Some low cigs in MVFR/IFR category for KAMA to start the TAF period with VFR conditions at KDHT/KGUY. VFR cigs should return to KAMA by 02-04Z with VFR conditions at all TAF sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the north to start the TAF period and then eventually shift to south and southwesterly past 12Z with winds of 5-15 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.