textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase across the Panhandles today and tonight. Storm may be strong with small hail and gusty winds.

- Rain chances continue through the forecast period. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Negative H7 theta-e advection should keep the combined Panhandles shower and thunderstorm free this early morning. As we approach sunrise positive theta-e advection will move back into the area with an approaching shortwave trough. This will gradually bring showers and thunderstorms across the combined Panhandles. Activity will first start out in the southwest to southern TX Panhandle, gradually moving east to northeast expanding across the area. With lack of upper level winds shear will be lacking. PVA is expected to be the main driver of lift and PWATs near 100% to 150% of normal should cause very skinny CAPE according to forecast soundings limiting overall instability. Would not rule out some cores with small hail but not anticipating any large hail. The main show is not anticipated until after sunrise, with isolated areas seeing rain rates of 0.05" to 0.25" an hour. The heavier rain expected will be later in the evening when rates over 0.5" an hour become more feasible primarily in the eastern combined Panhandles. The southern two thirds of the TX Panhandle are in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall by WPC for today into tonight. Just to the south is a slight risk. This slight risk stops short of reaching Donley and Collingsworth County. Which makes sense with current probabilities for rain totals exceeding 1" remain the highest in the southeast TX Panhandle.

Tomorrow, a much more robust upper level low over the PacNW will drop down into CA/NV and send some disturbance towards the combined Panhandles. This is expected to set off some more scattered storms for Wed. However, the best moisture may be positioned more over the eastern combined Panhandles into western OK. Current PoPs remain the highest in the northeastern combined Panhandles at this time. As storms are expected to be scattered and any areas that do get hit with multiple rounds will have the better chance at seeing some potential flooding issues. Models do suggest that today an MCV may set up and move off to the northeast for tomorrow. This is likely why the highest PoPs tomorrow are in the northeast. Who sees the highest rain amounts will depend on where this MCV sets up and where it travels today into tomorrow night. Overall there are chances for areas to receive an inch of rain or more over the next 48 hours. However, with the scattered nature that is expected some locations in the combined Panhandles, especially in the northwest may not even get 0.25", and there may be pockets where isolated areas do not get much rain if any, 0.0-0.1".

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

After seeing highs in the 70s today and tomorrow, afternoon temperatures are expected to return to the low to mid 80s Thu, and mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. H5 height rises should help bring temperatures up after the current system exits. Although PoPs do decrease Thu and Fri, they do not completely go away as H7 theta-e is expected to stick around. With atmospheric moisture sticking around any subtle disturbance or even convective temperatures being reached may spark a shower or thunderstorm. NBM is a bit generous giving 20 to 50 PoPs on these days. However, 20 to maybe 30 may be more reasonable Thu and Fri. Not everyone in the Panhandles will see rain every day this coming week. But the chances are there.

Another shortwave may be possible Fri night, however, more large scale coverage in thunderstorm activity may not be present until Sun night. The combined Panhandles are expected to get stuck in a very unorganized upper level pattern between major ridges and major troughs. But model guidance does suggest continued perturbations in the weak flow aloft allowing for PoPs to spread all throughout the extended forecast period. At this time no particular day stands out for widespread severe thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Currently, latest satellite and radar are still seeing the dry layer present in the mid-levels of the atmosphere wining out and keeping showers and thunderstorms out of the area. However, most CAMs do see this ending by the late morning to the early afternoon once the system pushes in and force the boundary to move over the Panhandles. Once that occurs it is likely that showers and thunderstorms will be present across all three terminals with KAMA seeing them the earliest and most often. Where the problem lies is that most CAMs have seen this activity as very scatter in nature which could result in a lot of off and on impacts to the terminals all day. Given this nature and how much it drops our confidence, have decided to keep most impacts under PROB30s for the current package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.