textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Severe thunderstorms are possible today and Thursday with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts followed by large hail.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday across the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Hot temperatures are expected to continue this week and peak this weekend which may result in heat related illnesses for those that are outside.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The main axis of an H500 ridge will move east tonight into Wednesday and should be over the Panhandles during the day on Wednesday. Another hot day is in store across the region given this scenario, with forecast highs once again in the 90s. Very limited surface moisture will be in place so spotty elevated fire weather may arise even though the wind will not be all that strong out of the south. Being underneath a ridge is not the most ideal way to get storms, but with convective temperatures likely being achieved and mid level moisture surging over the region, isolated to scattered storms may form on Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings depict quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels, so for these showers or storms to be good rainfall producers is not looking likely. PWAT values increase near the TX/NM state line, but any showers or storms that form may be decreasing in strength or dissipating by the time they get that fr east. Even though convective parameters are marginal at best, cannot rule out strong downburst wind gusts (perhaps up to 70-75 mph) from storms or even any showers as DCAPE is forecast to be over 1000 J/kg. A lesser threat of hail may arise if instability values overachieve compared to the latest forecast guidance. Anything that forms, whether it be showers or thunderstorms, should dissipate near sunset as daytime heating is lost.

The aforementioned ridge axis will remain progressive and shift off to the east on Thursday. Even though the upper level ridge will be off to the east, the low level thermal ridge will be placed over eastern NM and west TX which will lead to yet another hot day in the 90s and some areas reaching the triple digit mark. Those temperatures will be dependent upon how widespread the cloud cover is on Thursday afternoon since there will be another chance for convection. In addition to convective temperatures potentially being reached, a shortwave trough embedded in the upper level flow should move across the area during peak heating on Thursday. This should result in more showers or storms developing when compared to what is expected for Wednesday. Similar to Wednesday, the convective parameters still are not all that great, but there is enough instability to produce thunderstorms that could produce some hail. The primary threat with any of the activity will be damaging wind gusts as DCAPE values peak into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Storms should be able to have a quicker forward progression on Thursday which would only aid in the downburst wind gust threat, so to have a wind gust upwards of 80 mph is not out of the realm of possibility. Showers and storms should be able to sustain themselves a bit later into the evening given they will have synoptic support rather than just convective temperatures being met. All showers or storms should dissipate or move off into Oklahoma by midnight on Thursday night.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Even though the Panhandles will mainly be under zonal flow to start the weekend as the upper level ridge continues to move off to the east, the heat will remain in place through at least Sunday. High temperatures during this time frame are likely to remain in the 90s to just over 100 degrees. Saturday and Sunday appear to be the hottest days with H850 temperatures peaking into the lower 30s Celsius. In fact, current forecast highs are close to Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees to 109 degrees), in the more prominent hot spots across the CWA, such as Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley. Any breezy conditions this weekend will lead to at least elevated fire weather conditions with the continued hot and dry conditions.

Isolated showers or storms may occur on Friday afternoon/evening across the east, severe storms are currently not anticipated but strong wind gusts may occur if anything does develop. That trend may change as we go into the weekend and higher surface moisture starts to move in. The latest ensemble datasets continue to depict that any severe storm threat on Saturday will likely remain off to the east as the dry line mixes into western OK. It is worth noting though that the dry lines have trended a bit further west in recent weeks, but we will wait to see if that trend continues or not before introducing more widespread chances for storms across the east. The environment on Sunday appears to be a bit more favorable at this time as the models do have the dry line hanging back a bit further west. If that does occur, severe storms will be possible across the eastern Panhandles.

The region will be in between systems on Monday and a cold front is expected to propel southward across the Plains out ahead of a strengthening upper level trough. The timing of the front varies quite a bit in the model guidance which leads to little confidence in the temperatures on Monday. In general, cooler weather does appear likely next week as the trough moves east towards the Plains. If the base of the trough with an associated low pressure system can dig far enough south, additional chances for showers and storms may arise. If it tracks too far to the north, breezy conditions may lead to continued elevated to critical fire weather concerns.

Muscha

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24 hours. The main aviation concern will be isolated thunderstorms developing towards the end of this TAF cycle, with KAMA having the higher potential for storms. Storm chances are only around 10 percent so confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAF. Gusty and sporadic wind gusts would be a result of any storms forming near the terminals. The wind, initially out of the east will turn southerly during the daytime hours tomorrow and there could be occasional gusts up to 20-25 kts.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001-002.