textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Very dry conditions and record breaking heat will keep Critical Fire Weather conditions across the Panhandles through this evening.

- Strong north winds behind a cold front tonight into Friday will make for a challenge for travelers, especially with blowing dust.

- Dry and windy conditions will support Critical Fire Weather for most of the Panhandles on Friday. Fires that develop will be hard to control.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A lee surface low in northeast CO continues to pull in very warm and dry conditions to the Panhandles with most areas currently below 15 percent RH. Overall, upper jet dynamics are not overly impressive, and so the southwest winds will only be in the 15-25 mph range, with gusts close to 30 mph. With very warm downsloping conditions and 850mb temperatures exceeding 30C, the potential for some areas to exceed 100 degrees is certainly on the table. Currently as of 1PM Amarillo has reached 95 degrees, so it certainly could pull off that 100 degree mark. Critical Fire Weather will continue through 10PM this evening given these conditions (See Fire Weather Discussion).

Later this evening we will have the surface low track south with a strong push of cold air across the Panhandles. While we don't have a significant 700 or 500 jet associated, we do have a pretty strong 850mb jet that will support the mixing of very strong winds, in conjunction with the strong surface gradient. For this we will continue the wind advisory, as winds are expected to be 30-40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. There is some low level moisture in the southeast Panhandles that looks to advect into the area, and while it's expected to bring some low clouds, there could be drizzle or even some light rain associated. Now add to that the strong north wind, with the blowing dust potential, there could be some dirty/muddy rain potential, especially in the southeast. The morning lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, but wind chills could be as low as mid 20s for the cold spots. While north winds will keep temperatures cool tomorrow, we'll still manage to heat up into the 50s to lower 60s for the highs. And given that we'll still have dry conditions with these north winds and cooler temperatures, Critical Fire Weather will be a concern on Friday as well. As we move into Friday night we do expect winds to begin to lighten up as we move into the evening, and with the cooler air in place, the lows Friday night into Saturday morning look to be in the 30s.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Mild conditions on Saturday as highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s. We'll have to watch the northwest Panhandle as there could be just enough breezy winds to get critical Fire Weather conditions. As we move into Sunday through Tuesday, high pressure and very warm temperatures back in the 80s to lower 90s will return. This will keep the Fire Weather conditions elevated. As we move into Wednesday, we may be looking at a potential day of breezy to windy conditions and still be warm and dry, which would support critical Fire Weather. Still a little early to say for sure, and we might even be dealing with some showers/storms if we can get enough moisture with the disturbance, still Wednesday looks to be an active weather day, just the details are unclear.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions likely to prevail through at least 3z, with the main concern for MVFR conditions being possible blowing dust behind the cold front. There is some low level moisture that could make it's way to KAMA in the 09-15z time frame, and light rain or drizzle with possible cigs below 3500ft can't be ruled out. Currently do not have any MVFR conditions in the TAFs, but will be keeping an eye on those times as well as the impacts from the potential blowing dust, or light rain/sprinkles overnight. Winds will be gusty behind the front, and will be gusting out of the north northeast 30-40kts.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

With very warm and dry conditions today we can expect widespread critical FIre Weather. Given the ERC's over the 90th percentile it doesn't take much. Winds will be in the 15-25 mph range with gusts 30-35 mph. Current RFTI's range from 2 to 6 as RH values have come down to 9 percent, and could get as low as 6 percent in some areas. A cold front wind shift will be in play this evening as it approaches the OK Panhandle around the 5-7 pm time frame and makes its way through the Panhandles by about midnight tonight. While we will get RH recoveries tonight and a cool down, the winds out of the northeast will be in the 20-30 mph post frontal. That will cause an issue for any active wildfires. Again, we'll get a bit of a recovery with morning lows in the 30s to 40s, but afternoon highs on Sunday will once again get up in the 50s to lower 60s, and with winds still in the 20-30 mph range, even in the afternoon as RH values start to drop in the teens, that will support another round of critical Fire Weather for most of the Panhandles. Therefore another Red Flag Warning has been issue to account for this system. The main concern is any new ignitions or active fires, that they will be able to spread rapidly under these conditions.

We'll continue to monitor conditions daily Sunday through Wednesday as we'll always be concern for elevated Fire Weather with the fuels this dry, but it doesn't take much for critical Fire Weather to occur.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ001>020- 317.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ002-003.