textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

-Strong to severe thunderstorms potential this afternoon and evening, especially for the northern combined Panhandles.

-Heat headlines may be needed for Palo Duro Canyon on Sunday with temperatures at or above 105 degrees.

-Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week, varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight hours.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The panhandles currently finds itself underneath a broad ridge that will flatten out through today. This will allow for a small scale weather system to pass generally west to east across the panhandles later today.

This morning moisture across the eastern panhandles is causing a bank of low clouds and fog. Some patches of dense fog can cause severally reduced visibilities that can make travel more difficult. There is a low chance for this bank to propagate into the central to western panhandles by the mid morning hours. Once the sun rises this bank will lift and scatter out leaving sunnier conditions going into the late morning and afternoon. This is important as this will allow for ample daytime heating across the panhandles that will lead to unstable conditions. A significant plume of 850-700 mb moisture will be advected into the panhandles during the afternoon hours by the low level jet. This will see the PWATs increase into the 1.4 to 1.6 inches range across much of the panhandles. This puts the moisture in the top 10% of events for this time of year. This same low level jet will provide some environmental shear across the panhandles. The passage of the weather system will bring mid level cooling and forcing across the panhandles during the same timeframe. This will set up en environment that is ripe for thunderstorms during the later afternoon and evening. This will most likely see the environment have CAPE of 2000-3000 J/Kg with shear of 35 to 45 kts. That will allow for the formation of thunderstorms with a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. The most likely mode for the strong to sever thunderstorms will be supercells that can produces damaging winds, large hail, and tornados. The significant moisture will allow these storms to produce torrential rainfall that can lead to flash flooding as a further hazard. The most likely timeframe for these thunderstorms will be during the passage of the weather system across the northern panhandles which is the late afternoon through evening. The extent of thunderstorm coverage across the panhandles is a bit more uncertain. The weather system is small so its area of forcing is best across the northern panhandles with far less forcing for the central to southern panhandles. So it is most likely for the southern and central panhandles to see no thunderstorms with all the thunderstorms confined to the northern panhandles. Still on the off chance that the central and southern panhandles see a thunderstorms all the threats remains the same as the northern panhandles. The storms will then either depart or dissipate going into the overnight hours as the weather system departs and drier air works its way into the region.

Sunday the drier air will most likely remains across the panhandles leading to generally calm and fair weather conditions. The wins will be generally weak at the surface with little in the way of a solid wind direction. The winds aloft just above the surface will be westerly which is important as this will push in the low level thermal ridge into the panhandles. This will cause a jump in the temperatures that will cause the highs to reach into the 100s across much of the panhandles. The hottest spots such a Palo Duro Canyon can breach past 105 which bring the risk of heat illness. Right now the chances for extreme heat are low, but the heat will still be sufficiently high that a Heat Advisory may be needed for the hot spots Sunday afternoon and evening. Later during the evening a cold front starts its passage across the panhandles. This brings moisture back to the panhandles that will fuel evening to overnight thunderstorms. The environment that these storms are forming in is very unstable with upwards of 2500 to 3500 J/Kg and shear of 40 to 50 kt. This will allow for a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Less likely is the threat for tornados but this cannot be fully ruled out. One of the big reason for the lesser tornado threat is that the storms will most likely be elevated in nature with a more stable surface layer. This typically supports severe storms that produce winds and hail. However with such high shear and the presence of the cold front it is not out of the realm of possibility for a funnel cloud to anchor along the front and reach the surface as a tornado. The moisture will be high enough for any storms to produce torrential rainfall that can lead to flooding. These storms will most likely persist through the evening into the overnight hours with a non zero chance that they last through Monday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Monday will most likely see the high pressure build further to the northwest across more of the desert southwest. This will setup a northwest flow across the southern plains allowing for weather system to impact the panhandles. This bring daily threat for thunderstorms across the panhandles each day through all of next week. The better chances for rain come in the second half of the week when the panhandles has higher chances of seeing stronger weather systems. These weather system will be more capable of bringing in moisture into the panhandles and provide the dynamics to cause rain showers and thunderstorms. Strong to even severe storms can occur during this time if the dynamics of each system is potent enough. This period of active weather will more likely than not bring slightly cooler temperatures with 80s to 90s being the most likely highs.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The terminals will most likely have VFR conditions over the next 24 hours with a few important low chance exceptions. The first of these can occur later this morning if low clouds/fog in the eastern panhandles builds far enough west to the terminals. If this come about then IFR cloud decks or vis reductions can occur through the mid morning hours. Right now the chances are to low to be reflected in the TAFs. These clouds/fog will dissipate with sunrise restoring VFR conditions. The second exception is late afternoon to evening thunderstorms that are most likely in the northern panhandles. These storms can bring heavy to torrential rainfall that can cause IFR or worse conditions on that alone. There is a low chance for these storms to be strong to severe capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornados. KGUY is the only station with high enough chances to reflect these thunderstorms within the TAF. KAMA and KDHT have to low of a chance to have these thunderstorms reflected within the TAFs.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.