textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Low chances for a few showers and storms in the NE Panhandles this afternoon-evening. Gusty winds and small hail would be the main threats.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Thursday through Saturday for much of the Panhandles. Some storms could be strong/severe, but many forecast details need fine tuning. - Potential will exist for soaking rainfall with low chances for totals to locally exceed 1" by this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

As we reach the mid point of the work week, broad upper level ridging to our west will place northwest flow over the region today, with ridging atop the Panhandles by Thursday. This pattern will promote a warming trend with highs in the upper 70s and 80s along with breezy 15-25 mph south winds today and tomorrow. Additionally, models suggest that this pattern will allow a shortwave disturbance to clip the far northeast Panhandles later this afternoon-evening. Moisture availability will be meager at best when this energy potentially arrives (40s dew points & ~0.7" PWATs), lending 15-30% chances for a storm or two in the area. The vast majority of convection should remain north of the CWA primarily in Kansas where better conditions for storms will exist. Weak instability and decent shear (30-40 kts) would support gusty winds and small hail being the primary threats should activity form in our CWA.

Despite high pressure moving closer to the region Thursday, much of the Panhandles will see increased precipitation chances. As ridging becomes de-amplified through the day, a minor shortwave is progged to pass over the Panhandles, with a swath of 700mb theta-e set to advect northwards atop much of the region in tandem. This will allow modest 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE to materialize as 40s dew points are spread northwestward by the breezy winds, in the presence of 20-30 kt shear. CAMs depict an area of low-level convergence along a surface low being the focal point for convective development, which currently favors the northwest half of the forecast area (30-50% POPs) in the afternoon and evening hours. Even with improved deep- layer moisture for portions of the Panhandles, forecast soundings keep the low levels relatively dry where storms are likely to develop. This would be supportive of DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, suggesting downburst wind gust potential. Hail >1" in diameter would be a lesser threat, but still in play with any of the stronger, more organized storms. Rainfall totals aren't expected to amount to much, but there are 10-40% probabilities for >0.1" especially north of Highway 60.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

At long last, the synoptic pattern appears to favor increasing rain chances for the Panhandles, peaking late this week into the weekend. A deep upper level low off the Pacific coast will send southwest flow to the Southern Plains, ushering in waves of moisture and disturbances Fri-Sat. Latest model trends for Friday place a boundary over the Panhandles through the day, with potential for better moisture, instability, and shear to be in place. Depending on the timing of upper level features, this could spell potential for another day of strong/severe storm chances. However, doubts with synoptic and any finicky mesoscale features such as this boundary prevents higher confidence in this aspect of the forecast. Models differ greatly on the position of this boundary, ranging anywhere from central Kansas to the central TX Panhandle. Storms would tend to develop along and north of the boundary, but current NBM POPs of 50-80% may be too high given this uncertainty.

Given the continued influx of moisture anticipated Fri night into Saturday, additional scattered showers & storms cant't be ruled out across the area (~50% POPs). The next round of better storm potential looks to materialize Sat afternoon-evening, when a stronger disturbance should traverse atop the region. Depending on how well the atmosphere can recover, we could see some strong to severe storm development. Probabilities for favorable severe parameters are rather low though, with only about a 20% chance for MUCAPE >500 J/kg along with >30kt bulk shear. Many meteorological signs point to this potentially unfolding as a heavy rain event moreso than a severe event, especially if precipitation manages to fill in across the Panhandles. Both threats could still realistically be present, but tall, skinny CAPE profiles depicted by forecast soundings hint that instability may be more utilized towards efficient rain production rather than severe storms. If any severe storms should develop, all severe hazards could be possible to go with 10-40% chances for >1" of rain. At the end of the day we will likely have to wait and see how well we destabilize the day of the event before effectively messaging the full extent of any severe threat.

Once this system departs, dry air will filter back in to the region and shunt the bulk of moisture east of the Panhandles on Sunday. Some 10-30% storm chances may linger across the far southeast, but would quickly exit the area. Long range guidance diverges on the synoptic evolution next week, but does suggest our active pattern may resume with continuing seasonal temperatures.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hrs. Winds will stay breezy out of the south-southwest at 10-20 kts with slightly higher gusts later this morning-afternoon.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.