textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Heat persists across the Panhandles for the entire forecast period. - Low chance of thunderstorms tonight across primarily the north and western Panhandles, with damaging winds as the primary concern from any storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners with northwest flow in tact for the Panhandles. Upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will push a weak frontal boundary over the Panhandles this afternoon. That boundary is expected to stall out over the central Panhandles. Given the hot temperatures and decent convergence near the surface we could see some afternoon storms develop along that boundary. Right now there's not much that we expect with any of those storms, other than strong downbursts due to strong inverted V profiles. Behind the front we do anticipate typical northwest flow storms off the NM/CO mountains that may latch on to a shortwave, progged to move through in the late evening to overnight hours tonight. This will enhance the POP chances across the northwest, and we may even get some storms develop along that surface boundary if it tracks far enough south, as a few models are suggesting some pop up storms in the southwest and over the Amarillo area. Storms may linger through the overnight, but should decrease in intensity through the night, and dissipate by early Thursday morning.

For Thursday with the high shifted just a little bit to the north and east, it does try to put us into a bit more of a northerly flow, but not completely, and there may be a subtle wave out of that northerly flow, but moisture off the mountains is not expected to track along that upper level flow and move over the Panhandles. However, we are looking at residual outflow boundaries that could be left over from the previous day and as they collide during afternoon heating, and potentially with the subtle wave under the upper level flow, we could get storms to develop from those conditions. Right now CAM's are very uncertain with a mixture of storms that try but fail, to maybe storm clusters in the southwest Panhandles. Overall, the chances look lower on Thursday, but depending on Wednesday's activity could increase/decrease those chances.

Overall, while winds will be pretty tame, less than 20 mph, the fuels continue to be very dry and stressed due to the heat and lack of moisture, and with low RH values each day in the mid teens to mid 20 percent range we will have elevated Fire Weather conditions.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

High pressure will gradually shift further east and that will generally bring down our precipitation chances overall. Highs will continue to be in the upper 90s to mid 100's. We may even peak with 2 to 3 days in a row of widespread low to mid 100's on Sunday through Tuesday. That being said, as we get into Sunday evening onward, we'll be watching the position of the high as it might be far enough southeast to allow for some return westerly flow across the northern Panhandles. That would increase the precipitation chances and could allow for some temperature relief, at least for the northern Panhandles. While it does appear that the Panhandles will be dry overall on most days, we can't rule out some pop up storms just due to how hot it may get that we could reach a convective temperature and get a pop up show on its own. Confidence is low <10%, but still not out of the question. Overall, a very hot and mostly dry extended is in store. Lastly, the elevated Fire Weather conditions mentioned in the previous discussion, will continue for the extended forecast.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hrs at all sites. Winds are shifting out of the north-northeast behind a boundary at KGUY and KDHT this morning, generally at 5-15 kts with occasionally higher gusts. Winds at KAMA will stay out of the south-southwest at about 10-15 kts until the boundary arrives late this evening-overnight. Showers and storms could reach terminals later this evening-overnight, but probabilities are too low to include mentions in the TAFs at this time.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ010-014-015-018>020-317.

OK...None.