textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles starting Sunday evening and again by the middle of the coming week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

As of the latest 03Z observational data, the main back door cold front continues to move into southern Kansas, and eventually will enter the northeastern Panhandles throughout the overnight hours tonight. Going throughout the day tomorrow, the cold front will slowly traverse the Panhandles from NE to SW, before stalling out somewhere in the central TX Panhandle vicinity. Latest hi-res model spread of high temperatures range for tomorrow will range from the 10th percentile values of mid 40s in the NE to upper 60s in the SW (if the cold front moves through more quickly and covers more of the Panhandles). The upper 90th percentile of values (with a slower cold front that stalls further north) would result in values of highs from the mid 50s in the NE Panhandles to values in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of I-40. So still quite a range of temperatures 12-24 hours out from the cold front moving into the Panhandles, with still quite the dichotomy of values, depending on how the cold front progresses.

Along the cold front itself, in-conjunction with a very subtle H500 NW flow wave by Sunday afternoon reaching the Panhandles, there should be enough lift for showers to develop in the far SE Texas Panhandle. Some of the more aggressive model data-sets (RAP/NAM/CMC) shows MUCAPE values approach 500-750 J/kg. Could even support an elevated thunderstorm through the early evening hours. Northeast winds behind the front as it should finally traverse the Panhandles by Sunday night will result in temperatures dropping off back to near average for areas off the caprock with more cloud cover for Monday. High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60s for the eastern Panhandles to mid and upper 70s for the western Panhandles as SW sfc winds return for this portion of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Latest global model and numerical guidance continue to show discrepancies with our rain chances by the middle of next week. Majority of data supports a more pronounced H850-700 moisture transport axis east of the Panhandles. But for the eastern combined Panhandles, with these passing disturbances, depending on the track of the system itself, the central and eastern Panhandles could see a small window of rain chances before the main dry slot moves in from the west. Not a high chance of rain (20-30%), but some nonetheless. High temperatures throughout the long term forecast period will remain above average.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will persist for most of the day and night, until MVFR ceilings are forecast to arrive from the east towards the end of the period. Winds will be light and variable at times, but should settle out of the east-northeast at 10-15 kts this afternoon.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.