textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

-Watching the central and western Panhandles for flash flooding potential throughout the remainder of Sunday

-A strong or severe thunderstorm is possible through this evening for the western TX Panhandle

-Additional heavy rain potential and localized flooding is possible on Monday for portions of the Panhandles.

-Dry conditions return mid week before our next rain chances return at the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

As of the latest 18Z, highest rainfall totals in the Panhandle shave been across portions of Potter and Randall counties where several location have ongoing totals over an inch. The first batch of rain that entered our western Panhandles earlier this morning continues to move to the east. With the aforementioned rainfall totals, some areas we continue to monitor, especially the central and western Panhandles for flash flooding with already saturated grounds. In-conjunction with repeat rounds of heavy rainfall rates from thunderstorms and/or training storms, this will exacerbate flooding issues that arise throughout the day and into tonight. For portions of the western Panhandles, we also continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe storms. As of latest obs, cloud cover is hanging tough across the majority of the Panhandles. Some breaks in the overall rain throughout the day could result in some breaks in the clouds as well, especially for the western Panhandles. If this happens, we could see a strong or severe storm for the far western TX Panhandle. The better overall instability remains across central and eastern NM. Hi-res model data supports convection initiation in NM with its gradual movement into the western Panhandles by later this afternoon and portions of the evening hours. With a S-N oriented H850 jet over the Panhandles, with decent veering lower level profiles in the region, if we can get enough instability in the sector out ahead of the parent H500 low, a QLCS line and/or a discrete supercell or two could develop. Main threat with these storms would be hail up to 1" in the more robust updraft, but also cannot rule out a tornado with favorable wind shear and low LCLs. Still the main hazard overall we continue to watch is the flash flooding potential throughout the day today. Main moisture transport axis is right over the Panhandles, which will shift to the east as we go into the day on Monday.

For Monday, as the main H500 low becomes more of an open wave as it moves east of the Rockies, broad lift associated with the wave should continue to bring rain chance, especially for the central and eastern Panhandles. Heavy rainfall rates could cause some localized flooding for these areas with continued LL moisture transport into the region. High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid to upper 60s in the western Panhandles to mid 70s in the eastern Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Starting Tuesday through Thursday, latest global model guidance does bring dry weather conditions back to the region. Zonal H500 synoptic pattern with the main steering flow across the northern CONUS and the Gulf keeps any disturbances confined to these regions. Going towards the end of the week, the southern stream jet becomes more active with a potential disturbance with its origins near Baja California gets absorbed in mid level trough pattern to bing rain chances back to the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period. High temperatures mid week will moderate to slightly above average before returning to near average as we approach the end of the month of October.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs are being reported at all TAF sites to start the 18Z TAF period. As we progress to around 09-12Z, any sites with IFR cigs should improve to MVFR cigs, but all sites should remain at MVFR cigs throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will range from southeasterly to southwesterly at 5-15 kts, with gusts up to 25 kts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.