textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Multi day heavy rain event across New Mexico will impinge on western areas of the TX/OK panhandles.

- Potential for heavy rain will move into more of the Panhandles late Wed and Thur. It is important to note not every area will see heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Visible satellite imagery showing the showers and thunderstorms that developed this morning continuing to persist from just north of CDS westward into portions of Palo Duro Canyon and then south to near PVW. Still expect these to fall apart this afternoon. The latest satellite and radar data is showing the expected development of showers/thunderstorms over New Mexico into southern Colorado at this time...which is the beginning of this heavy rain event. This mornings upper air analysis showed a mid level 500mb low over eastern NV with a trough extending south...and a ridge from eastern TX north into the central plain, with the tropical plume of moisture in between these two areas. PWAT values will become very high for this time of year across the area in the next 24-48 hours and with a well defined shortwave trough moving northeast out of Mexico overnight and into Wed upward motion will be augmented in this very moist airmass. Showers and thunderstorms that develop will be efficient rainfall producers and very heavy rain is expected. The axis of heaviest rain will be from southern New Mexico north- northeast into the northwest panhandles on into southwest Kansas. Total amounts of 4-6" are not out of the question. The heaviest rain will likely fall in focused corridors over portions of New Mexico and eventually into the panhandles over the next 48 hours or so. This means not everyone will see the very heavy rainfall but where it does fall there could be high impacts. Nevertheless, it does look likely that many locations will see some precipitation over the next 48-72 hours.

Clouds and precipitation from this morning have kept temperatures down so far today...especially in the central portions of the panhandle with temps currently in the mid 70s. Slightly warmer temps in the low 80s are occurring where there has been more sunshine today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Looking at the GFS for the long range....after the precipitation ends later on Friday there will be a quiet period before the next trough dives down the west coast. Sunday into Monday. This trough could pick up additional moisture from a tropical system in the east Pacific...however the motion on this will have it brush by our area on Monday. Temps should rebound into the mid 80s at least.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. MVFR cigs are then expected to move into sites starting around 12-13Z, and continue throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Weather conditions shows overall SHRA conditions with a PROB40 for TSRA for KAMA potentially later in the TAF period. Overall winds will be out of the south-southeast at 5-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.