textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- There is a low potential for thunderstorms in the northern Panhandles on Friday with a very low risk for severe weather.

- Hot temperatures and thunderstorms chances expected for the holiday weekend with greatest rain chances on Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures continue next week, but so do chances for storms.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Adequate moisture will remain in place across the region, but there will be an increasingly narrow band of better H7 moisture oriented near a line from the SW to NW Panhandles that will provide the best chance for diurnal storms. That said, NVA from H5 ridging to the SW and associated subsidence basically eliminated convection across the area today. The H5 ridging will likely suppress activity along this moisture band across the SW half of the Panhandles Friday. The NE has a low chance for storms (10-20%) as there is better potential for a ridge rolling disturbance to impact that area. Models show a weak SFC trough moving into the area and becoming stationary anywhere from near Highway 60 to the far NW Panhandles on Saturday. It is nearly impossible to say which will be correct at this point, but that boundary may help generate additional chances for isolated storms if the H5 ridge isn't strong enough to suppress convection altogether. 15-25% chance of rain seems reasonable favoring areas from Highway 60 northward Sat late aftn and evening. The mid level ridging will also provide high temperatures around 7-10 degrees above normal with the usual hotter locations possibly near heat advisory levels.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Med range models indicate the H5 high center will slowly retrograde to the WSW providing leaving the Panhandles in favorable location to be influenced by disturbances in mid level NW flow that ride around the ridge. On Sunday, it appears a weak frontal boundary in the area will also increase chances for storms as the H5 pattern becomes slightly more favorable and POPs are increase in the forecast slightly. Beyond Sunday, WSW H7 flow maintains a tap into monsoon moisture and the ECMWF, GFS and GEM all maintain a nice H7 Theta-e ridge across the area. Models have not been super consistent run to run or with each other regarding the exact position and strength of the ridge and this will be key to forecasts. Next week could work out very favorably for thunderstorm chances at times with multiple storm complexes associated with nice ridge roller s/wvs leading to widespread beneficial rains, or the ridge could dominate more with more isolated storm coverage with the best activity steered more north of the area. The ridge should influence continuation of above normal temperatures as well through the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours. Winds will become breezy out of the southwest this morning, then turn southerly and breezy this afternoon and evening. Winds should weaken after Midnight. There is a chance for thunderstorms in Guymon this afternoon and evening, but chances are too low to include mentions in the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Very dry conditions have been observed in parts of the WRN Panhandles that have been missed by most of the rain in the past month. We are starting to see fire starts given pockets of completely cured fuels in these areas. The area from Vega to Stratford and Texline westward is especially bad and some central locations aren't much better. We may need to start entertaining fire weather products these areas if conditions don't begin to improve if we have windy and dry days.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.