textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Thursday and Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend behind a series of cold fronts that move across the region from Thursday night through Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday and Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

The upper level jet will continue to remain in place across the southern High Plains on Thursday. This feature will aid in the continued breezy to gusty winds across the Panhandles. The breezy winds will already be in place to start the day with gusts up to 30 mph. Winds will become more northwesterly for at least a few hours during the late morning to early afternoon time frame as the surface low quickly moves east across central to eastern Kansas. There will likely be a pocket of lower winds somewhere from the northwest to southeast on Thursday afternoon, splitting the Panhandles from higher winds on either side of this feature. Just exactly where that sets up is unknown, but for areas across the southwest, winds may remain westerly whereas on the northeast side of the feature, winds will be out of the northwest. This does lead to a tricky wind forecast for tomorrow afternoon. A backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast to east Thursday evening into the night. This front will switch winds to out of the northeast to east going into Friday morning. Thankfully, winds are only expected to be around 10 mph or so in the wake of the frontal passage. The front will usher in much cooler air with lows forecast to drop below freezing on Thursday night.

The easterly winds behind the front will be short lived as another leeside surface low develops by late Friday morning. Southerly winds initially will become westerly, especially for the west and central, by early afternoon. The winds will become breezy to gusty once again, especially across the west, with gusts potentially reaching 40 to 50 mph on Friday afternoon. Even though temperatures will only be in the 50s to low 60s, relative humidity values drop down into the lower teens once again and elevated to critical fire weather conditions will arise as a result. Very light rain or snow cannot be ruled out across the Oklahoma Panhandle on Friday afternoon as the base of a H500 trough combines with just enough mid level moisture to produce showers. The better chances will be north of the Oklahoma Panhandle, but will keep a 15-20 percent chance in the forecast for now. Another cold front moves south across the region on Friday night bringing another reinforcing shot of colder air over the Panhandles.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

By sunrise on Saturday, a cold front should be south of the forecast area with breezy northerly winds in its wake. The cold front will usher in a cooler air mass and forecast highs on Saturday are actually slightly below average in the mid to lower 50s. Fire weather concerns are not expected for Saturday given the cooler temperatures. A ridge will begin to develop across the western CONUS on Sunday. The Panhandles will be on the eastern side of the center axis to end the weekend and temperatures will start to slowly climb back up into the mid to upper 50s for Sunday. Going into next week, the upper level ridging pattern looks to remain firmly in place across the southern CONUS, including the southern High Plains. This will lead to temperatures rising back up above average by Monday and continuing through the week. With the warmer temperatures returning, elevated to critical fire weather may return next week with any days that have breezy to gusty winds.

Muscha

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue. Breezy to gusty southwest winds will become westerly overnight with gusts continuing to be upwards of 30 kts. Additionally, low level wind shear may arise out of the west with winds around 1.5-2k ft agl around 50 kts. Winds will remain out of the west to northwest the remainder of the TAF cycle with continued gusts upwards of 30 kts. A few sites may have somewhat lesser winds during the mid to late afternoon timeframe on Thursday, but confidence in where is very low. Winds will shift to out of the northeast to east at the terminals behind a weak cold front with winds around 10 kts behind the front. That front will move through towards the end of this TAF cycle.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast to continue on Thursday and Friday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Thursday...Once again, widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles from Thursday morning through the early evening. Winds on Thursday will be out of the west to northwest for most areas throughout the day. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35-45 mph are forecast across the region. Relative humidity values will drop down to around 8-12 percent by mid afternoon. More concerning is that a backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast on Thursday evening into the night. This front will shift winds from out of the west to out of the northeast to east. Thankfully, winds will be very light behind the front, only around 10 mph or so going into Friday morning.

Friday...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the central and western Panhandles on Friday. Winds at sunrise will still be out of the east but will quickly shift to out of the south to west by late morning into the afternoon. Winds will once again increase up to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on Friday afternoon. These strong winds will combine with relative humidity values dropping down to around 10-12 percent to lead to the critical fire weather threat continuing.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for TXZ001>020- 317.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for OKZ001.