textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

-Active weather starting Friday and continuing through Tuesday with an increase in thunderstorm chances. Storms may be strong, but at this time the threat for severe weather is low.

-Embedded in the active weather is the potential for hot temperatures on Saturday where some areas may need heat highlights.

-The potential for widespread could return Wednesday with most areas having highs in the triple digits.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front is starting to move in across the far northern OK Panhandle this morning. The front is expected to continue to move south and may even be south of the entire area by mid afternoon. If that occurs, the potential for any thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening will shift south, which is the current expectation. Given the further south movement of the front, have blended in some hi-res guidance to the temperatures for today to lower them a few degrees.

The next area of uncertainty is the potential for additional storms to develop overnight into early Friday morning. Very strong H700 theta-e advection is forecast to take place overnight and forecast soundings indicate elevated CAPE profiles of 1500-2000 J/kg. These ingridients could lead to a strong to severe storm threat early Friday morning if any storms are able to form across the Panhandles, with the primary hazard being large hail. The main area of uncertainty is if storms can form, there is a lack of any synoptic scale lift and the latest CAMs are split regarding any storms developing. Given the potential scenario, have slightly increased PoPs for Friday morning and have begun messaging the potential for a few storms to potentially become strong to severe.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

No storms occurred this evening off the dryline, so a quiet night is expected thunderstorm wise. Very warm overnight lows given the hot temperatures we had today, but a cold front in connection with an upper level trough swinging across the northern Rockies is on the way. It may enter the OK Panhandle as early as 7AM. This is now a bit faster than we've been anticipating. The front has been progged to move through most of the Panhandles for quite some time, but leaving the southeast in question as to if it will push completely through. As the front slows down there is the concern that strong to severe storms could develop just ahead of that front, as the convection looks to extend all the way from the dryline intersection to the Great Lakes. Right now the southeast is where all the pops will remain, but there is the potential that it could end up further south and out of the Panhandle area by the time we reach peak heating and enough heating in general to overcome the cap. Should a storm develop in the southeast it would have the potential to be severe with hail and wind being the primary threat.

Front and dryline will retreat overnight Thursday night. That may result in some precipitation chances, but right now models are struggling to handle if there will be enough instability to get some storms overnight. For Friday, broad scale high suppressed over the south central CONUS from west Texas over to Mississippi will continue to draw up warm moist southerly flow from the Gulf and eastern Pacific. Additionally we'll be under a zonal to somewhat northwesterly flow with a decent wave to move through on Friday evening, at least across the northern Panhandle. Chance pops are in the forecast for the central and northern Panhandles to account for this system.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

An active extended will continue as west to northwest flow will dominate over the Central High Plains and we'll continue to have embedded showers and storms as a part of the overall pattern. Saturday will be interesting as there is a strong push of warmer air ahead of a cold front that's progged to move through in the evening. And this warmer air could result in highs around 100 to 105 in some of the warmest areas like the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon State Park. With the dryline now displaced way to the west in NM, the front has a decent chance of setting off rounds of showers and storms, that may be strong to severe at times, but right now the confidence is too low for an outlook. After the front moves through on Saturday the overall flow pattern now holds more northwesterly and highs do appear to be more tame an in the 80s to 90s, but likely with higher humidity due to dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s Panhandle wide. Large scale ridge of high pressure continues to build to the west under this northwest flow and appears to move over the Panhandles by Wednesday. At this point 850mb temperatures push much higher in the 30-35C range and we're back to the potential of widespread 100's with heat highlights favored for at least some of the Panhandles.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours at this time. A cold front will shift the wind to out of the north to northeast this morning with gusts reaching 30-35 kts at the terminals. The wind will gradually decrease after sunset and will switch to out of the east. Uncertainty regarding the forecast rises after 06z since there could be low clouds that develop at KAMA or KDHT that would lead to MVFR ceilings. Additionally, there is the chance for thunderstorms to develop late in this TAF cycle, but confidence in impacts to the TAF sites is very low at this time.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.