textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- High temperatures this week likely to remain slightly below seasonal averages.

- Possibility for thunderstorms to return Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The upper-level ridging continues through the beginning of this week. Upper-level high pressure moves into the northern plains, and a cutoff upper-level low retrogrades from the east, moving through the south east and into Texas. With a clear lack of surface features to induce lift in the short term, the best chance for thunderstorms are in the afternoons with diurnal heating and possible upsloping flow. Coupled with any mid-level support that makes it as far north as the Panhandles, it is possible for an isolated shower/thunderstorm in the afternoons on Monday/Tuesday. However, the more likely scenario is a dry start to the week, with slightly below average high temperatures (high 80's to low 90's).

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Wednesday, an enhanced jet response is expected between the anticyclonic upper-level high pressure (in the northern plains) and the cyclonic upper-level low pressure (in the southern plains). This could place the Panhandles in the left exit region of a weak easterly upper-level jet streak on Wednesday providing mid-level support to an environment with possibly 1000 J/kg and lackluster shear, which could produce afternoon pulsing thunderstorms in the Panhandles. Also, growing confidence in PWAT values over 1 inch and storm motions of less than 10 knots could result in decent rain producers with flash flooding as a potential threat.

Depending on how the upper-level dynamics play out for the rest of the week, we could see mid-level forcing stick around in the Panhandles on Thursday and Friday. However, with the complex scenario of a Rex Block and the end of the week being right around when it is breaking down, it is difficult to tell how the the dynamics will play out.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Winds will stay southeasterly at 6 to 12 knots through most of the period. There is a very low chance for some fog development tonight into the early morning hours where rainfall occurred yesterday, but it should be very shallow and not widespread. If confidence increases for MVFR/IFR impacts, amendments will be issued. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.