textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Severe thunderstorm chances continue for most of the Panhandles on this afternoon and Friday. Higher confidence today.

- Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon is in effect today with highs around 105 degrees.

- Triple digit high temperatures expected Saturday through Monday for many locations, with potential heat products needed.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Quasi-zonal flow aloft currently over the combined Panhandles is progged to get disrupted this afternoon with a shortwave. A surface low will set up over the combined Panhandles bringing some changes to the surface winds and Tds across the area. Leading to subtle boundaries and increased surface helicity in the northeastern combined Panhandles. As this low travels over the area, surface winds are expected to shift to the north as a subtle boundary (likely outflow from storms in KS this morning) moves in. Another boundary (subtle surface trough) is expected to divide part of the Panhandle between Tds in the upper 40s to lower 50s on the west side and upper 50s to 60s on the eastern. Also, with subtle west/east difference in southerly surface winds.

Abundant mid level moisture is progged to exist across the entire combined Panhandles this afternoon. Storms may first iniate off of surface convergence along the northern outflow boundary while picking up later from upper level support. However, some areas in the central to southwestern TX Panhandle may still need to wait on the potential arrival of this boundary moving south to initiate as instability and Tds are expected to follow behind the boundary.

Higher CAPE values are expected to exist north of the outflow boundary and east of the surface trough. Instability around 1000-1500 J/Kg MUCAPE may still exist across the southwestern part of the Panhandles behind the trough and ahead of the outflow. Enough to get a good updraft and produce damaging winds with DCAPE values above 1000 J/Kg. Higher confidence for hail will be north or east of the two aforementioned boundaries wherever they may lie as the upper level support comes across with better instability and better shear. The best low level shear is expected to the northeast of the surface low where the two boundaries meet, leaving a 2-5% prob for tors mainly in Beaver County at this time. Once storms get going will have to watch for interactions of new outflow boundaries which can locally change the environment for a new storm.

Although severe storms should end by 11 PM tonight, some lingering showers and thunderstorms may last well into the morning for the eastern combined Panhandles. Going into Friday, surface winds shift to the north behind all the thunderstorm activity and gradually turn easterly. Although speeds are not expected to be very high, maybe 10 mph until the evening, the upslope nature of the winds will help temperatures be held back a few degrees compared to today. This should hold PDC floor temperatures to around 100 and not 105. Mid level moisture around H7 is expected to hang around and could lead to some scattered thunderstorms once again Friday evening. The question is how much lift will be present as suggested shortwaves are not anticipated to be nearly as strong as today's. Will be monitoring for a severe potential once again late tomorrow afternoon/evening. There is a bit of uncertainty to the amount of effective CAPE that will be available as models are showing some CIN and storms could potentially be more elevated. The severe risk may be conditional with how much the atmosphere recovers from tonight. If storms are elevated, they are likely to not get very strong. However, damaging winds could still be a threat as some onion shape forecast soundings are showing after storms start.

Storms may start in the later afternoon in the northwest Friday, with most of the area not seeing thunderstorms until after 7 PM and lasting through the overnight. As the storms exit to the east early Sat morning surface winds are expected to become southwesterly and potentially pick up to the 15 to 20 mph before sunrise. Overnight lows going into Sat are not expected to be that cool with some lower 70s across the central to southeastern TX Panhandle and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Upper level high pressure that has been dominating much of northern Mexico and south to central Texas will begin to shift eastward with southwest flow aloft beginning to move in over the FA Saturday. During this time dry southwest winds will begin to move in at the surface. This will create warm temperatures with much more of the combined Panhandles reaching the lower 100s. PDC is likely to need a Heat Advisory once again with temperatures reaching 105 or greater. Although the NBM is not excited about precipitation chances Sat night, H7 theta-e advection remains elevated along a moisture plume extending from the southwest corner of the TX Panhandle to the northeast corner. This moisture may lead to potential isolated pop-up thunderstorm late Sat into Sat evening. Therefore, have introduced a slight chance pop for this area. If slouds form early enough in the afternoon from rising air, afternoon highs could be held back ever so slightly.

This pattern is expected to persist through much of the extended period. With temperatures only slightly cooling a couple to few degrees Tuesday onward. This may be because of the increase chances for showers and thunderstorms as southwest flow aloft pumps Pacific moisture into the area increasing cloud cover at a minimum. The NBM did introduce some 10-15 PoPs Sunday night slightly and have expanded this just a bit more into the central to northeastern TX Panhandle. This pattern of PoPs across a corridor of the southwest to northeastern Panhandles is continued for Mon evening into Wed evening.

Sticking with the NBM for the afternoon highs through the extended period at this time. However, these values may be overdone just slightly and will depend on the timing of cu fields forming and potentially some thin high clouds as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of thunderstorm chances through about 06Z. KGUY and KAMA have prob30 groups. however, KDHT has lower confidence but may need to be amended if thunder threatens the terminal. Southerly winds around 10-15 kts may eventually turn to the north behind a surface boundary. These winds are what is expected outside the influence of thunderstorms, as there will be a severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon into evening. There is a bit of uncertainty to the extent of potential MVFR to LIFR CIGs heading into 12Z, but KGUY does have MVFR CIGs progged at 11Z at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ005.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ003.