textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Severe thunderstorm chances continue for the next couple of days. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary hazards, but an isolated tornado threat exists both today and Friday.

Thunderstorms chances continue throughout the next 7 days. While chances are much lower on Sunday and Monday, models show another weather system that brings higher chances Tuesday onward.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Back-to-back days of rain chances and severe weather headlines carry on through the short term period. Meanwhile, high temperatures remain below average through this period but will begin to increase as we head into Memorial Day weekend.

This morning, high moisture content prevails at the low levels. Areas with deeper quality moisture profiles, namely across the eastern combined Panhandles, will be in play for weak shower activity from the time of this writing till the mid morning hours. (Ending around 8-10 AM.) Closer to sunrise, some thunderstorms could develop from existing showers or convection moving out of SE Colorado. Elsewhere, low clouds and mist are more likely to occur instead of rainfall. While some patchy fog banks could arise around various locations in the CWA, short term model guidance suggest relative humidity remains at 100% more consistently several hundred feet off the ground rather than at the surface. Therefore, impacts should remain minimal tonight.

Later this afternoon, morning convection will have dispersed. Southerly surface winds will aid in moisture transport from south to north through the FA. Surface based instability will also increase as cloud cover erodes in the west. Weaker upper level forcing creates issues for convective initiation; however, mountain convection will still be an available source of lift for thunderstorms. Theta-e profiles in the Panhandles will be sufficient enough for storms to hold together as they exit New Mexico. Yet, recent CAMs are honing in on the notion that there will still be lingering subsidence and CIN across the central Texas Panhandle. Therefore, thunderstorms are more favored to affect areas north and south of our central zone. Effective shear and mid level lapse rates are expected to be highest across the northwest combined Panhandle compared to the rest of the CWA. So, chances for severe thunderstorms are best in that area, as long as storms hold together. 00Z soundings suggest that damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Nevertheless, a conditional tornado threat also exists as surface winds back towards the southeast and low level SRH increases sharply. The caveats are contingent on storms holding together as MLCIN increases, while staying surface based. The current storm mode suggest linear development for the southern High Plains. If a tornado can form, it should be brief and likely embedded in the QLCS. Convective activity should wane before midnight across the region.

By Friday, southeasterly surface flow will continue to aid moisture advection. A surface low is positioned in SE Colorado while a surface trough extends southward to the Permian Basin. As this feature progresses east, a cold front will over take the High Plains and advance south through the afternoon. Areas of convergence alongside weak H500 forcing will allow for our next round of thunderstorms to form tomorrow afternoon. Given the lack of a tight dry line and broad scale moisture, organized multicellular development is expected ahead of the cold front and surface trough. Supercell parameters are best along the advancing front, as long as cells can remain discrete. Another factor worth noting is the speed of the cold front. A faster front may take convective activity further south, so trends will be monitored to see if PoPs can hold in our area. Current environmental parameters support large hail as the primary threat for all storm modes. Damaging wind gusts are also possible with potential supercell development. The tornado risk will likely not manifest until the low level jet increases later that evening. If any supercell maintains towards the evening hours where these mesoscale parameters are realized, all hazards are possible.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A generally active weather pattern is expected to prevail through the extended period. As the main upper trough is pulled northeast, a weak ridge of high pressure will develop over the southern CONUS. Late in the current long term period, our next H500 low will dig south from the Pacific Northwest and keep the troughing regime active in the western United States.

Global models still seem agressive with QPF across the CWA on Saturday, while LREF ensembles show move conservative values for 24 hour QPF. Ensemble median precipitable water shows values around 0.9" for the FA, with higher PWATs in the east versus the west. Even with convective activity, thunderstorms may not be as effective at producing rain as the deterministic models convey. Storms will require higher quality moisture to become more efficient rain producers. NBM PoPs seem sufficient for the moment and have been accepted for Saturday. Once more short term models are incorporated into Saturday's forecast, PoPs may decrease in the next couple of days. That is, if the storm mode suggests more scattered convection instead of it being widespread. Semi- persistent cloud cover will keep highs on Saturday in the 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday and Monday, we anticipate to receive a slight break from rainfall, while high temperatures slowly increment into more widespread 80s. Even as we warm up and dry out a bit, favorable relative humidity and light southeasterly winds will aid in keeping fire weather at bay.

Tuesday onward, better rain chances return to the forecast. The track of our next low pressure system will determine who is impacted by rainfall, when convection is expected, and how severe thunderstorm probabilities will unfold.

Rangel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings exists at all sites through tonight and the day time morning hours. Showers, mist, and patchy waves of cloud cover may cause terminals to fluctuate between categories for the first half of the TAF period. The highest confidence for thunderstorms is at KGUY this morning. Later this evening all sites have a slight chance to be impacted by thunderstorms; however, confidence is still not high enough to make mentions in the current TAF period. Ceilings will eventually clear out at all sites this afternoon, and VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the period.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.