textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 818 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions persist this afternoon across the northern Panhandles fire prevention needs to be practiced.

- Record breaking high temperatures are forecasted on Sunday and Monday and heat illnesses may result for those outside.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 818 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A flat high pressure system remain dominate across the southern plains through the rest of today and Sunday. The panhandles are on the northern portions of the high pressure for the next couple of days. This position is important as it allows the panhandles to be influenced by the west/east flow across the Rocky Mountains. This flow is causing a lee trough to the northwest of the panhandles which in turn is causing a tighter surface pressure gradient. This is the driving force behind the gusty winds across the panhandles this afternoon. The placement of the trough to the northwest also drives the gradient of wind gusts across the panhandles. This means that the northern panhandles will see stronger wind gusts while the southern panhandles see weaker wind gusts. The most likely wind gusts will remain in the 30s mph range through the rest of the afternoon hours. These winds will be coupled with dry conditions which is creating elevated to critical fire weather conditions, see fire section for more details. As such it is recommended to practice fire prevention to stop and wildfires from starting. Going into the evening the lee trough will weaken which will lead to the winds ceasing on the gusts. The weakening of the winds will also bring an end to the fire weather conditions. The high pressure sitting across the region is causing heating leading to an increase in the high temperatures. For today this is causing around to slightly above average high temperatures.

Sunday the high pressure will pivot a bit more to the east leaving the panhandles on the northwestern portions of the system. This will make the influence of any lee trough less for the panhandles leading to generally weaker winds for Sunday. Still it will be drier on Sunday which is causing elevated fire weather concerns. The heating from the high pressure continues on Sunday causing far above normal temperatures across the panhandles. This will most likely see the highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s panhandles wide. Such temperatures are near or above record levels. Such heat can lead to heat illness so be prepared and drink plenty of fluids while outdoors.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 818 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

There is a high chance for the flat high pressure system to remain dominate over the southern plains through Monday. However, the influence it is having will be waning as it continues to move to the east. Still the heating from the high pressure will continue leading to hot temperatures across the panhandles. This will most likely see the highs in the low to mid 90s which is record levels. Such heat can cause heat illness for any who are outdoor and not acclimated to summer levels of heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 818 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. Winds will gusty and southerly this afternoon at all terminals. The winds will be stronger in the northern panhandles and weaken towards the southern panhandles. Winds will weaken during the night time and will more than likely cease to gusts. This will set up speed with directional low level wind shear at all terminals during the overnight hours. The low level wind shear will come to an end during the later morning as the winds weaken. This will leave Sunday with mostly weak winds and sunny skies for all terminals. Winds will most likely increase in strength again as the influence of the high pressure weakens allowing for tighter pressure gradients. This means that the elevated to even critical fire weather concerns will persist into Monday.

Come Tuesday there is a moderate chance for a weather system to push out the high pressure and pass a cold front across the southern plains. The passage of the front will most likely bring a drop in the temperatures. It is uncertain if the front will have much moisture associated with it when it passes through. As such the chance for any rainfall during its passage is very low.

Wednesday a fast moving smaller weather system has a moderate chance of passing across the southern plains. This weather system currently has a favorable trajectory to draw up some gulf moisture in the panhandles. This is leading to a low to moderate chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. However the uncertainties with the trajectory make it hard to say exactly how much moisture the panhandles will receive during its passage. In fact if the system shifts its trajectory either north or south it would prevent the moisture from pushing into the panhandles leaving us dry. So this is a system we will keep an eye on as it has been too long since rain has occurred within the panhandles.

Beyond Wednesday the weather pattern becomes less certain but overall favors a more active pattern. This means that there are currently better chances for further weather system to bring moisture to the panhandles.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 818 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue across the northern combined panhandles this afternoon. These critical fire conditions are driven primarily by gusty winds with gusts up to 40 mph coupled with marginally dry conditions with min RH of 15 to 20%. The winds are generally stronger in the northern panhandles and become weaker in the central to southern panhandles. The same trend applies to moisture where the northern panhandles are drier and the souther wetter. This means that elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon for the central panhandles. While the southern panhandles should not see any fire weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>005.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.