textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Frost conditions are expected for at least southern portions of the Texas Panhandle again tonight

- Mostly dry and breezy conditions will prevail next week, with rain chances potentially returning towards the weekend

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Quieter weather has settled in for the Panhandles region this weekend, as observational data depict ridging aloft draped atop the southern Plains. The upper level pattern should become more zonal tomorrow, as models show troughing and ridging gradually deamplifying. This pattern promotes partly cloudy skies with highs near or below seasonal averages in the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will stay relatively cool in the 30s and 40s, with frost conditions possible tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will be slightly breezy out of the south at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts up to 30 mph, but will not be as blustery as the past couple of days for the Panhandles.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Medium-long range model data is currently in rather fair agreement regarding the synoptic evolution early next week. Zonal flow will reamplify into southwest flow and week ridging over the region as a deepening low pressure system approaches the western seaboard. In general, next week's weather across the Panhandles will be more or less uneventful. Mild temperatures in the 70s to low 80s will recur each afternoon, with warmest days expected Wed and Thu. A tighter surface pressure gradient will keep winds typically breezy for Panhandle standards, out of the south-southwest at 15-25 mph gusting around 35 mph daily.

Precipitation potential previously centered on late Monday into Tuesday is trending downwards, as models have come to realize that despite improving mid-level moisture, upper level lift will be modest at best. This still supports about 10-15% chances for stray showers/weak storms, but confidence in it raining is waning. Later in the week towards the weekend, global guidance is focusing on the aforementioned deepening low to eventually eject over the Plains. Ample disagreement exists on the exact track and timing of this system, but early indications support the return of better moisture and rain chances to the Panhandles.

Harrel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail with relatively light southerly winds. Winds are expected to pick up to around 15 kts gusting 25-30 kts after 16Z.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.