textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out Saturday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible Monday and Tuesday, but it will depend upon how much rain occurs in the days before.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Mid-level moisture is apparent across the Panhandles this morning in the form of altocumulus. A mid-level perturbation aloft will approach the Panhandles throughout the day, and we'll see a surface low develop in northeastern New Mexico. This will lead to strengthening southerly to southwesterly winds, culminating in 15-25 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 35 mph. As the perturbation moves into the Panhandles around the mid-afternoon, we will see some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms increase starting in eastern New Mexico into the far western Panhandles. This initial activity will be very high-based with virga leading to strong downdrafts being the primary hazard. Won't be able to rule out a dry thunderstorm which may lead to a lightning-induced fire or two. This activity will move east into slightly greater moisture content leading to greater instability. Will be looking at MLCAPE between 500 J/kg to 1000 J/kg with effective shear values are expected to be between 25-35 kts. Most likely storm mode will be multicells, but can't rule out a supercell if instability and shear values are more toward to higher end of the previously stated ranges. Activity should wane this evening, though there is a 20-40% chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms to persist in the northern combined Panhandles where the more favorable mid-level forcing and moisture compensates for the nocturnal low-level stability.

PoPs will increase overnight to 40-60% in the northeastern combined Panhandles when a cold front moves into the northern combined Panhandles. This area will also be on the nose of a 850mb jet set up across the Texas Panhandle.

Clouds are favored to hang around Friday morning but we should see some clearing Friday afternoon, at least across the Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, most guidance suggests the early Friday morning front will eventually stall out Friday afternoon. Similar to today, we will see showers and thunderstorms become possible around the middle of Friday afternoon, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the boundary. Low-level moisture content and instability will be higher (MLCAPE 750-1250 J/kg) than today, but wind shear is expected to be lower (20-25 kts). As such, expecting the most organized storms to be multicells with a large hail and damaging wind threat. A key detail that will need to be determined for the Friday afternoon thunderstorm threat is where the boundary ends up when it stalls. The 12km and 3km NAM, and a few other CAMs, bring the boundary to the Canadian River Valley while the HRRR and the operational GFS, and most of its ensembles, keep the boundary in the northern combined Panhandles. Will lean toward the CAM solution of a further south boundary, especially given the potential for showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front in the northeastern combined Panhandles.

Upper-level winds will become diffluent over the Panhandles, and combined with additional mid-level embedded shortwave troughs, this will favor increased chances for showers and thunderstorms the Panhandles Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture content will increase overnight, and with the potential for multiple rounds of rain, there is around a 10-40% chance for rain amounts to exceed 0.50" across the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing to begin Saturday morning, but should eventually move out of the area by Saturday afternoon. An upper-level trough will move toward the Panhandles Saturday as moisture from the Gulf and the eastern Pacific continues to stream into the area. Clouds are expected to persist through the morning, but could clear out some degree in the afternoon at least in the Texas Panhandle. If enough heating and destabilization can occur, then another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely across the area. MLCAPE values between 1000 J/kg to 2000 J/kg will be possible where sufficient destabilization can occur. Effective shear values should increase toward the mid/late afternoon hours to 25-35 kts, suggesting predominately multicells with a low chance for a supercell. Large hail and damaging winds are once again the primary hazards, but given increased low-level shear and low LCLs, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This is especially true in the late afternoon/early evening hours when the nocturnal LLJ starts to increase.

Precipitable water values will range from 0.8" to 1" in the western Panhandles to 1" to 1.2" in the east, which is above the 99th percentile in the climatology for the date. This, along with the tall and relatively skinny CAPE profile, suggests the potential for heavy rain with rain rates up to 1"/hr favored, but cannot rule out 2"/hr rates with a stronger thunderstorm. A couple limiting factors for flash flood potential include very dry soil and the expected progressive nature of thunderstorms (i.e., not expecting slow moving or backbuilding thunderstorms).

Thunderstorms will eventually push east out of the Panhandles Saturday night into Sunday. Another upper-level trough will swing out of Mexico and into western and central Texas on Sunday, resulting in a surface low in northeastern New Mexico. This will strengthen winds across the area and, unfortunately, dry air will move in from the west and we'll be left with a dry day with temperatures in the upper-70s to mid-80s.

A larger upper-level trough will dip into the western Panhandles on Monday and we'll see a surface low develop in the Central Plains. This will lead to a breezy and dry day with some elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The level of fire weather concerns will depend upon how much rain falls over the next 72 hours.

Will have to keep an eye on the timing, track, and orientation of the trough as it ejects across the Rockies on Tuesday. There is some indication that low-level moisture could get drawn back into the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and present a risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm, but confidence is very low at this point. But Tuesday could be another elevated to critical fire weather day, again depending on how much rain we can get.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for thunderstorms at all terminals this afternoon into the early evening, but the relatively higher chance is present for Guymon. Thus, have added a PROB30 for Guymon but not the other terminals, but amendments may be needed if confidence increases later. Low-level wind shear will be possible at all terminals tonight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. A cold front will move in from the north late tonight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.