textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across the Panhandles, but the more favored area will be along and south of the Canadian River Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

- Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday through Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 816 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

High surface moisture and cloud cover have led to yet another warm start to the day across the Panhandles with most locations in the 60s to low 70s already this morning. Hi resolution guidance is now picking up better on an upper level wave that will start to move over west Texas by late morning into early afternoon and are developing convection across the southwestern TX Panhandle during that time. Severe storm ingridients will be in place for severe storms to start early this afternoon and move off to the east/northeast. Have updated the forecast to account for more confidence in storms forming along with more widespread chances for rain through mid afternoon.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a fairly robust closed trough over the Western US with a subtropical jet pushing into the Southern High Plains as of this evening. Some mid-level vorticity embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft may provide enough forcing to spark some elevated showers or isolated thunderstorms across the western and northern Panhandles tonight. Otherwise, fog will be possible across the far northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Low clouds, or perhaps even showers, should linger into Friday morning in the northern Panhandles while cirrus streams across the region. The low clouds should move out by the afternoon. A mid-level shortwave is expected to move into the Panhandles around peak heating which will introduce the chance for thunderstorms as a surface trough pushes into the Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, a plume of 700mb moisture/theta-e is expected to push into, at least, the southern Texas Panhandle. Given the lack of concerns about low cloud cover in the morning and higher confidence in sufficient moisture aloft, confidence in thunderstorms developing is relatively higher along and south of the Canadian River. Confidence is lower north of the Canadian River due to questions revolving around sufficient destabilization and the potential for less-than-favorable moisture advection aloft. Deep layer shear will be favorable for storm organization and ventilation, but the more pressing question is low- level moisture and instability. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be modest (around 6.5 C/km) which will put more importance on low- level moisture. Some mesoscale/CAMs suggest that just enough moisture could work into the Texas Panhandle around mid/late afternoon to yield 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE which would support a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary hazards in this case would be wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. However, if this low-level moisture is mistimed or not as robust as some guidance suggests, then it may be a struggle to get severe thunderstorms as MLCAPE values would be less than 750 J/kg. Thunderstorms will move out of the area Friday evening leaving behind what should be a quiet night.

A trough will move into Utah and Colorado on Saturday with a STJ extending from southwestern Texas into Oklahoma. A sub-1000mb surface low is expected to develop in SE Colorado/W Kansas. A dryline will push through the Panhandles with dry and breezy winds expected to prevail across the Panhandles. Fortunately, recent rainfall should keep fire weather concerns at a minimum.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A strongly negatively tilted trough should be moving northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains on Sunday. Heights aloft will rise across the Panhandles, leaving highs in the 90s across most of the area with mid/upper-90s across the eastern and central Panhandles. Some locations may see triple digits, such as Palo Duro Canyon (60-80% chance) and in the Canadian River Valley in the central Texas Panhandle (30-60% chance).

Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail on Monday as low-level and mid- level moisture returns to the Panhandles. A subtle disturbance aloft may work into the area and spark off showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show an inverted-V thermodynamic profile with weak instability indicating the potential for strong downdrafts that could lead to wind gusts up to 55 mph.

Forecast confidence decreases beyond Monday as weak winds aloft will lead to a lack of steering flow. There are indications that a trough will meander in from the Pacific and wander eastward or southeastward. Thunderstorm potential is forecast to continue through the rest of the long-term period, but confidence in any details beyond that is very low.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the TAF period. It is low confidence but KGUY has a potential to briefly drop to MVFR for a short period in the beginning of this TAF period. Later, scattered thunderstorms may over take the combined Panhandles, primarily threatening conditions at KAMA between 19Z and 22Z. These storms may be capable of producing wind gusts over 50 kts as well as isolated hail cores with hail between half an inch and 1.5". As storms move east conditions will return to VFR well before 00Z Saturday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.