textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Isolated showers/thunderstorms may pop up across the Panhandles later this afternoon/evening. -Hazards will be lightning and strong to severe wind gusts. Little to no rain amounts expected due to evaporation.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday. Severe wind gusts and lightning will be the main hazards.Again very little rain amounts expected with a continued dry surface layer.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible each day through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Visible satellite continues to depict a cumulus field across the southwestern TX Panhandle with some attempts at virga showers forming this evening. If anything is going to form, it is likely going to be in the next hour or two before daytime heating is gone. Any showers that push out outflow boundaries may also be a spot for additional shower or storm development. The primary hazard in addition to lightning will be damaging downburst wind gusts. A small shower produced a 47 mph wind gust near Dimmitt earlier so it will not take much of a storm core to potentially produce a damaging wind gust. The forecast remains largely on track for the next few hours.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Warm temperatures in the 90s are expected once again this afternoon. Surface Tds remain low, especially in the west, with RH values as low as 12 percent in the southwest TX Panhandle today, only improving into the 20 to 25 percent range in the east to northeast combined Panhandles. According to model analysis, positive H7 theta-e advection will be taking place today. Depending on if temperatures can reach the convective Ts, an isolated storm cannot be ruled out later this afternoon into evening. Very little to no upper level support is expected until tomorrow. CAMs have the best place to see an isolated storm this afternoon in the far northwest, possibly skimming by Cimarron County going from NE NM into SE CO. The other area to watch this afternoon is the south central to southeast TX Panhandle. As mentioned the best upper level support comes in tomorrow as a shortwave rippling through the H5 ridge. H7 theta-e advection may be slightly better as well. Potentially firing off some scattered storms. However, the surface is looking to remain dry with inverted V forecast sounding suggesting large amounts of DCAPE both today and tomorrow. With better lift tomorrow, chances of seeing measurable rain overcoming that dry layer to produce some isolated areas of at least a tenth of an inch of rain. Otherwise, looking at scattered areas of a few hundredths due to the dry nature.

With highs returning to the 90s tomorrow and RH values once again dropping in the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be of concern. Winds will be slightly breezier tomorrow leading the potential for maybe some Red Flag Warnings across the combined Panhandles. The other concern will be dry lightning from very inefficient thunderstorms potentially starting fires as fuels remain susceptible under current drought conditions. Isolated updrafts may start as early as 1 PM tomorrow, however, looking more likely to be late afternoon into evening. Especially when storms become more scattered across the area. MUCAPE values both today and tomorrow, where CIN should not be an issue, are progged to be in the 400-800 J/Kg range. Therefore, hail up to one inch in diameter cannot be ruled out but is not anticipated. However, DCAPE around the 1100-1500 J/Kg range will drive the primary concerns of straight line winds up to 75 mph being the main threat with any severe storms.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Continued dry and hot conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. An approaching mid to upper level trough by Sunday will bring in some stronger surface winds to the area. Because of this Sunday afternoon is looking like a pretty much guaranteed critical fire weather day. At least for the central to western combined Panhandles. Thus far, a wind advisory does not look too likely for Sunday but it may be close for parts of the combined Panhandles. This could be a higher end critical day, at least from what we have seen most recently due to the winds and continued dry and hot conditions. After Sunday, models diverge quite a bit. There are hints at a cold front sometime between Monday and Tuesday. If the front does not show up until late Monday, the combined Panhandles could see another high end critical fire weather day Monday afternoon as well. This front may a potent one in regards to strong northerly winds behind it. However, as far as temperatures go, looking at afternoon highs going from the 90s one day to 80s the next day. Again, just some question as to the timing of this front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. There is still a low chance for a thunderstorm to impact KAMA, so have kept the PROB30 mention with this issuance for a few hours. Otherwise, the wind will be out of the south to southeast during the night before switching back out of the southwest after sunrise. Gusts during the day could be upwards of 20-30 kts at the terminals. Thunderstorms may form once again late in this 24 hour period, but confidence in location is too low to mention.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions with MinRH values in the 11 to 16 percent range with winds in the 15 to 25 mph range. RFTIs are expected to be in the 1 to 2 range based on prevailing hourly forecast. However, there may be periods where these increase especially with the potential for thunderstorm winds tomorrow afternoon. Not only will thunderstorms play a role in erratic winds, they are expected to be mostly dry with fire starts from lightning a potential.

Hot temperatures and low RHs will continue especially for western portions of the combined Panhandles going into the weekend. At least elevated conditions will exist with some potential for critical through Saturday. Sunday has a much higher confidence for widespread critical conditions as an upper level system approaches and brings strong winds in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph.

Critical fire weather conditions may exist on Monday as well depending on the arrival of a cold front. Model guidance may bring this cold front in as early as Monday afternoon or as late as Monday night. Will be watching for a potential of strong winds behind this front as well.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ003>005- 009-010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ002-003.