textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Very hot conditions are forecast through Saturday with record breaking highs expected.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Saturday and possibly again on Sunday due to breezy to gusty winds and dry conditions.

- Cooler temperatures are expected late this weekend into Monday with a warming trend resuming in the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The center of a very strong ridge of high pressure is currently located over Arizona and will remain there through the short term forecast period. With hardly any change in the upper level pattern, the weather across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles will remain pretty much unchanged through at least tomorrow. Highs both today and tomorrow will be very hot, with temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. Even though relative humidity values will be very dry both afternoons, winds will remain around 10-15 mph or less so critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for either of these days. Overnight lows will also be quite warm and record warm lows may be broken if temperatures only bottom out in the mid to upper 50s.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The H500 high pressure system will start to move southeast and weaken this weekend. As this occurs, the upper level pattern should switch to zonal flow to start the next work week. Before the ridge breaks down, the center axis moves over the Panhandles on Saturday which will aid in leading to increasing WAA over the region. Saturday is forecast to be the hottest day this week, with widespread highs in the mid to upper 90s and some areas may even reach 100 degrees for the first time this year. Southwest downsloping winds will also aid in bringing in drier air and leading to the likely record breaking highs. In fact, the highs on Saturday may break the all time record high for March at the climate sites. With the very hot conditions, breezy southwest winds, and very dry conditions, critical fire weather is forecast for Saturday afternoon.

As mentioned above, the ridge breaks down on Sunday and the pattern favors a cold front propelling south across the Plains Saturday night into Sunday. Model guidance still remains very indecisive on the timing of the front. Given the strength of the cold air push behind the front, I would lean towards the faster frontal progression which has the front south of the Panhandles by mid day on Sunday. This difference is leading to a wide range of potential highs on Sunday but in general, temperatures should drop throughout the day once the front passes through. Winds behind the front will be strong out of the north and gusts of 40 mph or greater will be possible. Another day of critical fire weather may occur on Sunday. The cooler temperatures should last into Monday before a warming trend resumes Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies are expected along with variable winds around 10-15 kts or less.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Very hot conditions are expected during the afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and some locations may even reach the triple digit mark for the first time this year. Winds are forecast to be out of the southwest around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon. The southwest winds will usher in drier air which will lead to relative humidity values dropping down to around 4-7 percent by peak heating Saturday afternoon. These conditions will lead to Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values up to 4-5.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for OKZ001>003.