textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are forecast on some days during the next week.

- A cold front moves in on Saturday into Sunday leading to the potential for much cooler highs on Sunday.

- The pattern change continues next week with closer to average temperatures and the potential for rain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Visible satellite imagery late this morning depicts thin high clouds continuing to stream in over the region moving from northwest to southeast. Given the high clouds and not as strong of WAA today, temperatures should be a bit cooler than they were yesterday, but still will see some areas hit the 80 degree mark across the central and west. Light winds are forecast for today as surface high pressure is in place over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A very weak cold front (more like cool front) will move across the area tonight, switching winds to out of the north but still only around 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts. The air mass behind the cold front that will be in place on Thursday is only slightly cooler, but should keep highs mainly in the 70s. Another very nice February day is expected with the light winds and continued above average temperatures.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Upper level high pressure is expected to be in place over Baja California and is forecast to move east towards the Gulf of America by early next week. This occurs as a low pressure system moves onshore across the western CONUS on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures remain above average on Friday and Saturday with light winds across the Panhandles, so a very nice start to the weekend is anticipated. Sunday and beyond there is much more uncertainty with temperatures and other forecast elements as they will largely be influenced by the speed and track of the aforementioned low pressure system. A backdoor cold front is forecast to start moving in across the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Where this front sets up is highly uncertain and the 25/13z NBM has nearly a 30 degree high temperature spread from the 25th to 75th percentile for portions of the CWA on Sunday. It is worth noting though, that the EC and GFS AI models (as well as the AI ensemble means) do have the front through most of the area on Sunday, whereas deterministic model guidance along with the ensembles are all over the place with regard to the placement of the front. This pattern also does favor moisture increasing across the southern Plains and with the low moving over the region, rain showers and thunderstorms may form as a result. However, given all of the variables in place and the uncertainty, confidence in precipitation is not high at this point, but there is slightly higher confidence in temperatures being cooler than they have been as of late.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions are likely to continue over the next 24 hours. Winds will mainly be around 10-15 kts or less out of the south during the daytime hours today. Winds become northerly behind a weak front after sunset this evening with occasional higher gusts. Thin high clouds will remain over the region during this TAF cycle.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.