textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Record high temperatures are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday. A cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles on Thursday with breezy to windy conditions behind the front.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A cold front has moved through the Panhandles this morning and we are left with cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and low relative humidity values resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions. As the cold front continues to press south throughout the day and the surface pressure gradient weaken, we will see the winds begin to react accordingly later this afternoon and throughout this evening.

The upper-level ridge that brought the record heat to the region will become slightly suppressed on Monday which, along with post- frontal cooler airmass and scattered cloud cover, will help keep temperatures in the upper-60s to 70s across the Panhandles in the afternoon. Heights aloft will begin to rise Monday night as the upper-level ridge begins to build again.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Heights will rise throughout Tuesday as the upper-level ridge once again strengthens over the Southwestern US. Warmer 850mb temperatures will begin to advect into the Panhandles on Tuesday, slightly above the 75th percentile for the date, which will translate to highs in the 80s to low-90s.

The upper-level ridge will really begin to make its presence felt on Wednesday. Although weaker than last week's ridge, will this time be more centered closer to the Panhandles (New Mexico) than the one last week (Arizona/California/Nevada). Temperatures will take yet another step up on Wednesday as subsidence becomes more robust and even warmer 850mb temperatures are brought in. Widespread low to mid- 90 degree temperatures are expected for Wednesday which will shatter the record high temperatures for the date.

A ridge will be present over the south-central CONUS with a weak shortwave trough moving from the Southwestern US to the Rockies while there is a shortwave embedded in the zonal flow in the northern CONUS. A cold front associated with the northern shortwave is expected to move through the Plains and into the Panhandles with breezy to windy conditions behind the front. Unfortunately, there are considerable differences among operational and ensemble model guidance, particularly with respect to the northern shortwave which impacts the timing of the cold front. The GFS/GEFS has a notably stronger and quicker system while the ECMWF/EPS and Canadian/GEPS has a relatively weaker and slower system. This creates some uncertainty in the high temperature forecast for Thursday. Currently, the NBM has highs in the low-mid 90s in the northern combined Panhandles to upper-90s to around 100 degrees for the southern Texas Panhandle.

To really illustrate the uncertainty in the forecast for Thursday, the LREF has an interesting dichotomy of solutions:

There is a 20-50% chance for highs to reach or exceed 100 degrees in the eastern combined Panhandles, and 5-20% across much of the rest of the area. Meanwhile, there is a 10-25% chance in the northern combined Panhandles for highs to stay below 80 degrees, and less than 10% across the rest of the Panhandles. This means that there is an overlap in the northeastern combined Panhandles that simultaneously has a 20-40% chance to reach the triple digits while there is a 10-20% chance to not even reach 80 degrees!

If the cold front progresses at a pace more similar to the majority of the ECMWF/EPS and Canadian/GEPS solutions, as well as the current NBM, then we will be in for another day of record high temperatures. In fact, the current NBM forecast has Amarillo and Borger tying their brand new monthly record highs of 98 degrees and 100 degrees respectively. Furthermore, will have to watch for elevated to critical fire weather conditions owing to the very dry, slightly breezy, and hot weather ahead of the front (wherever that ends up being).

Breezy to windy conditions are expected behind the front owing to a steep surface pressure gradient and a 40-45 kt 850mb jet. There is currently a 20-40% chance for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph behind the front Thursday night and into early Friday. This could prove especially hazardous should any fires start during the day Thursday.

Cooler temperatures settle in for Friday and Saturday.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

As of early this evening, observations from the terminals were still seeing surface winds gust out of the north at around 30 kt. These winds are expected to die down once the sunsets with speeds gradually weakening to around 8 to 12 kts for the overnight. Meanwhile, cloud decks are still present, but ceilings are still high enough to keep terminals at VFR levels. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold through the present package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.