textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the morning hours of Monday, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles for large hail and damaging winds.

- Heat Advisory is in effect for south to central Texas panhandle today with very hot temperatures approaching 106 degrees.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week, varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight hours.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The panhandles is still inbetween to larger scale weather system with a high pressure system to the south and a large scale weather system to the north.

Today the high pressure system will exert more influence across the panhandles for the morning through afternoon timeframe. This will be most pronounced with the high pressure spreading the low level thermal ridge across the panhandles. This will cause the temperatures to jump signficantly for this afternoon with widespread 100s for highs. The hottest areas such as the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon are still favoring breaching past 105. This brings the risk of heat illness to these areas so frequent hydration and breaks is recommended for any who are outdoors. Since this heat is impacting a larger area than earlier forecast the Heat Advisory has been expanded across a larger portion of the southern and central Texas panhandle. Then towards this evening the high pressure yields with the large scale weather system becoming the more dominant feature. This will allow for a cold front to pass north to south across the panhandles. This will start during the evening and finishing during the early morning of Monday. The passage of the front will bring cooler conditions along with an extensive bank of low clouds. This would normally herald more stable conditions however that will not be the case. The environment along and behind the front is showing between 2000 to 3000 J/Kg with 30 to 50 kt of shear. This unstable environment will most likely be elevated with the unstable conditions above the stable surface layer. This will allow for a low to medium for thunderstorms to develop behind the front. The environment is such that strong to severe thunderstorms have a low chance of forming. If these occur then the main threat will be large hail and damaging winds. These thunderstorms will move slowly southward during the evening through morning hours of Monday before they dissipate by the later morning hours as forcing weakens. The elevated unstable environment will remain across the panhandles for the remainder of Monday. This means that when forcing returns with the passage of a trough during the afternoon and evening further high based thunderstorms may form over the panhandles. These will retain the same threat as the morning storms in that there is a low chance for severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. Some forcing seems likely to remain through into the overnight hours so this round of thunderstorms can also last into the overnight as well.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The southern planes has a high chance of having high pressure to the southwest and lower pressure to the northeast setting up a northwest flow through much of next work week. This pattern is favorable to bring in multiple weather system that will lead to daily potential for rain showers and thunderstorms. The dynamics are such that there will be the potential for stronger to severe thunderstorms with the more potent weather systems.

This pattern is showing signs that it will break down come next weekend which can shift the weather to be less active across the panhandles. How long this downtrend will last is questionable as there is increasing confidence for a large scale weather system to develop in the western U.S. next weekend as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist at all sites for the next 24 hrs. The only caveat for this is the potential for PROB30 groups to be included at KGUY for low thunderstorm potential this evening, but more likely in the overnight hours towards the end of the 12z period. Winds will turn out of north through the day behind a front, turning out of the east-northeast overnight as a reinforcing front moves in.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ007-008-012-013-017>019-317.

OK...None.