textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected today and again Friday with the potential for severe thunderstorms as well.

- Multiple days of triple digit temperatures along side very little relief in the overnight could result in the need for extended heat related products in the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Overnight satellite imagery has already seen the present upper- level high start to shift more south, which is likely to see the heat continue be a problem for the day. However, this shift could provide the Panhandles with opportunities to see some storms as most models see a disturbance alongside a decent pocket of moisture push in later this afternoon. Current CAMs runs have continue to support seeing some isolated to scatter showers and thunderstorms mostly across the Northern Panhandles Thursday. However, multiple CAMs have also seen this abundance of moisture move in ahead of the expected boundary, could result in some early afternoon showers and thunderstorms forming across our east once again. In terms of impacts from these storms present CAMs have seen both CAPE values and wind shear a bit lacking, but the present set up cant be completely overlooked as it generally favors the potential for some rouge severe wind gusts and overnight heat burst related winds gusts. Added to this will be some decent PWAT values that could range from 1.5 to 1.9 inches at its peak, which is more than enough for even a weak shower to produce heavy rainfall and localized minor flooding. Regardless, heat is still going to take precedence for the day as many locations could be reaching triple heat for the third consecutive day, with areas in the south starting to get close to the 110 degree mark thanks to a little southwesterly down-slope winds. Even worse the early arrival of the moisture will look to amplify the heat with many eastern locations actually feeling hotter than actually are. Given this, we have decided to expand the present Heat Advisory to cover the majority of the Panhandles.

As for Friday, present CAMs have continue to favor a stalled boundary from todays expected activity setting up somewhere across the Southern Texas Panhandles. This stalled boundary could aid in a new round of showers and thunderstorms for the area, especially with all the high amounts of lingering moisture expected to be present. As for potential impacts, latest CAMs have been seeing decent instability in place for the afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg present. On the wind shear side, most CAMs are still not seeing great values but some pockets of 20 to near 30 kt do exist at times. With these two ingredients present it would put larger hail and damaging winds as potential impacts for the afternoon. However, flooding may become more of a concern for the day, especially if the Southern Panhandles can reach the near 2 inch PWAT values some models are calling for. Regardless, all this potential activity is going to have to rely on where this boundary stalls, which seem to be pushing further and further south with each run. Otherwise, concerns are still present for the heat Friday as much of the models still see the Panhandles pushing for another day of triple-digit. However, these concerns may be minimized should we actually see storms develop early enough.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Lingering moisture from our more active end of the work week may see some isolated storms present Saturday afternoon. However, heat continues to be the main talking point for the extended period as model agreement does not see the the upper-level high pressure holding over the Panhandles laying off anytime soon. With this high-pressure in place, the Panhandles will hold onto a more stagnate and dry upper-level pattern that will aid in forcing temperatures near or over the triple digit mark clear into the middle of next. Obviously such hot temperatures over multiple consecutive days rather typical for this time of year. However, what could make this much more dangerous is that low temperatures are not fairing much better with present expectations seeing locations, such as Amarillo, have the potential to either break or tie their record warm low temperature each night. Expectations like these would also mean that there is very little relief occurring during overnight hours which may only amplify the risk of seeing heat related illness as each day passes. Given this potential, it is becoming increasingly likely that we will not only see heat related products form much of the period, but also have said products last well into the overnight hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Generally VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Later this afternoon and evening a system brings high based rain showers and thunderstorms to the northern panhandles. These storms can produce strong to even severe down burst winds. Further heavy rainfall that can briefly reduce visibility to MVFR. It will be hot at all terminals today which can lead to increased density altitude. Otherwise the ambient winds will be gusty through much of today slowly switching from SW to SE.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>015-017>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.