textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Isolated showers that may result in mostly gusty winds with little precipitation today and tomorrow. Will not rule out some pockets of thunder embedded in these showers.

- Mostly dry and breezy conditions expected to prevail through Wednesday.

-Thursday night into the weekend will be the next return of showers and storms, and rainfall may be enough to result in some flooding concerns starting Friday evening and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Current satellite and radar shows a mild plume of mid level moisture moving across eastern NM and into the Southern High Plains. Expect that what we'll get out of this is mostly virga, as air at the surface is still on the drier side. But will not rule out some showers reaching the ground, so have gone with a 10 pop for the rest of today through tomorrow evening. Now most of the virga showers should be through by tomorrow afternoon, but there is still some lingering moisture in the northern Panhandles through tomorrow night. Looking at model soundings over the next 24-48 hours, we do see that we have a little bit of CAPE 100-300 J/kg and that some of it gets above that -20C range, and we have ample lift with the shortwave over southern NV tracking northeast over our area, so this adds a small chance of thunder into the mix. Mostly showers are in the forecast, but will note iso thunder from time to time, to address the better instability and probabilities of squeezing out some lightning. At the surface we'll continue to have a lee surface low with semi tight surface gradients today and tomorrow, keeping those surface winds in the 10-20 mph range and we may gust 20-30 mph at times. Tomorrow looks like winds will be a little stronger than today, especially for the northwest. Temperatures overall will be in the 70s today and tomorrow.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Wednesday will be the warmest day, but Thursday will be close behind before we move into an active weekend. High pressure will amplify over the Panhandles on Wednesday and Thursday leading to highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s with little to no rain chances. As we approach Thursday evening a low pressure system coming in off the Southern California coast will track across southern NV and bring another swath of moisture that's projected to start moving into the southwest Panhandles as early as Thursday night, but the more likely time of arrival will be Friday. Given the strong south southwest flow with this, it will have a very gradual expansion westward, so much that there may not be much precipitation along and east of a Guymon to Amarillo line, where further west we could see continuous rain through the afternoon and evening. Things get a little dicey as we head into Saturday and Sunday, but these are the better chances of precipitation across the entire Panhandles, and there could be excessive rain involved, so localized flooding concerns are something to keep in mind. But there is a chance for some or all of the Panhandle to get a dry slot and miss out all together. Based on the pattern history we've been through, the dry slot scenario is currently less favored, but will not ever rule that out. Right now it looks like a 70/30 split leaning towards a better chance of getting rain this weekend.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with few to scattered mid and high clouds. Virga showers possible around TAF sites over the next 12 to 18 hours, but confidence in thunder not high enough to mention, however, if a shower is near or around the TAF site, might get some gusty winds, and while thunder is not mentioned, will not rule out amendments to add thunder should it be needed. Otherwise winds out of the south to southeast 5- 15kts for the TAF period. KGUY and KDHT may start out with winds more north to northeast, but should transition southerly in the first 3-6 hours of the TAF period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.