textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorm possibilities exist for Tuesday afternoon across the eastern panhandle. The strongest storms could produce large hail, strong potentially damaging winds and an isolated tornado.

- Excessive rain is possible for the next 3 days over mainly the far southern and southeastern sections of our CWA. 4-5 day total precip in the extreme southeast could be 3-4" of rain.

- Strong cold front across Iowa/Kansas currently will move through the area either late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Widespread area of rain over most of the panhandles can be expected Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Evening water vapor and IR satellite loop showing strong low pressure and deep amplified mid-upper level trough over the western U.S. Subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow are grabbing some moisture from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific. A narrow channel or corridor of slightly higher moisture content is seen extending into west Texas where a few small thunderstorms have developed this evening. With high pressure over the northern Gulf of America and the upper trough to the west, the flow between these two systems is producing southerly to southeasterly winds across most of Texas. Currently the moisture axis is aligned from the Texas coast through central Oklahoma into central Kansas. High quality moisture is present with sfc dwpts in southeast Texas in the mid to upper 70's (80 degree dewpoints are seen along the coast). Even in west Texas upper 60 dewpoints are shown from Midland to Childress. As the upper trough slowly moves out of the western states into the plains rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop. The severe threat is apparent for some areas in the east Tuesday then overnight showers and storms will train over the southeastern part of the CWA...leading to periods of heavy rain. The soil moisture situation is a little bit better in the southeastern CWA but repeated periods of moderate to heavy rain will still lead to potential flooding. 3-4 day rainfall totals are looking like 1/2" of rain from Clovis NM to Guymon, OK and then a tight gradient increasing to 3-4" of rain over our southeastern CWA with isolated higher amounts possible.

The cold front across the plains is forecast to move over our area late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This will usher in cooler air along with the clouds and precipitation. Temps will still be warm Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s but this will be the last warm day for a few days. Looking at low 70's Wed, mid 60's Thur, and upper 50s Fri.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

After the rain comes to an end with this system Thursday cooler weather will carry into the weekend but then warmer conditions can be expected by Sunday/Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. There is a low chance of t-storms near KAMA late afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, winds expected to increase as a cold front approaches the area with gusts approaching 25-30 kts. After the front pushes through, winds will be lighter out of the north.

Harrel/Pletsch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.