textproduct: Amarillo

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Dry northwest flow continues tonight with some high clouds over the Panhandles. Overnight lows will be right around normal in the lower to mid 20s across the area. As we move into Thursday the cooler air will hold just off to the northwest in KS/CO, but there will be enough of that cooler air to keep the northern Panhandles in the 40s with the southwest getting one more pleasant day in the upper 50s to lower 60s, as a weak surface low kicks out southwest flow at the surface to help hold off the cooler air. That being said as the sun sets Thursday night the colder air will push south and the lows will be in the teens to lower 20s Friday morning. Shortly after sunrise we'll have a little bit of a warm up, that will quickly stall into cooler temperatures as Friday progresses. So your typical high at 3pm will not be how Friday plays out, it will likely occur earlier in the morning and then it's all down hill from there, with a good chance that the low for the day will occur just before midnight across the Panhandles, as we continue to cool down.

Pops will start to increase on Friday afternoon, and this is where the greatest uncertainty lies with the winter weather. We have a very strong warm nose colliding with a very cold arctic airmass, and how far north will that warm nose break above the freezing line around 700mb. There has been an uptick lately suggesting that the southern Panhandles could start off with some sort of frozen precip type in the mid afternoon and this warm nose really totes the freezing line throughout Friday night. This area that could provide frozen precipitation likely runs along the Canadian River Valley from Hereford all the way up to Canadian. All areas south of that line are fair game for the frozen precipitation from noon Friday through Friday night. The catch is that the soundings support the possibility of freezing drizzle. But this is early on Friday and it likely shifts more to a snow setup by Friday afternoon. So that will likely be the limit of any ice glaze due to freezing drizzle. Overall the process will favor snow for the rest of the day Friday and Friday night into early Saturday morning. The issue is during this time frame that the warm nose could break that freezing line, but it could stay just below freezing. If it breaks the freezing line, then we've got sleet concerns Friday night through Saturday morning and some areas of steady sleet could result in significant ice accumulations, versus if it just stays as snow, then some light to moderate accumulations Friday night into Saturday morning of about 2-4 inches would be expected. And add to the mix that each subsequent run has pulled that warmer air further north, and if this trend continues, we'll be redoing our snow probs for Friday night into Saturday and increasing our ice accumulations due to sleet.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

We've already hit on early Saturday with the previous discussion. As we move into Saturday afternoon it does appear as if the deeper colder air is in place and we're looking pretty good for the entire Panhandles to be snow. There may even be a lull Saturday with some areas getting snow and others just remaining on the dry side. By late afternoon to evening we have the system off the Baja ejecting to the northeast across the Panhandle and bringing abundant moisture with it. This is going to be the most interesting part, as we have copious amounts of moisture, we have ample lift from a negative tilt trough (could result in some isolated convection "Thundersnow") and we are now very cold and fully saturated through about 200mb. With a surface wetbulb of about 5 to 15 degrees under those conditions, we could be looking at snow to liquid ratios on the conservative side being 20:1, but it could get as high as 35:1, and that doesn't even factor the convective enhancement. This is where we could see some really heavy snow in just a matter of 8 to 15 hours. A quarter of an inch which again looks conservative at this time along and east of the Canadian river valley at just the 20:1 ratio is 5 inches, and that's probably happening in a 6 hour time period. Now lets look at the more extreme side of things and go with the potential for 0.50" of liquid and assume the 35:1 ratio, that could put out 18" of snow. Again this is an extreme, but it can't be ruled out.

By late Sunday afternoon to early evening the moisture should be out of the area and off to the east with cold dry air, and a decent snowpack in place. Highs on Sunday are in the 20s but likely will be lowered once we have an idea of the snowpack, and the same would go for Monday. While we do have a mild northwest flow transitioning back to the area for Monday and Tuesday, we'll have to keep an eye on that snowpack to possibly lower temperatures.

We need to step back a bit to Friday night into Saturday to address just how cold it will be. We have an extreme cold watch out as the highs on Saturday are not even expected to break 10F for most of the Panhandles. The wind chills will bottom out in the -5 to -15 range for the Panhandles, and these negative wind chills are going to hold in place all the way through Sunday afternoon.

Wednesday the Panhandles will return to mostly be in the 40s, and at that point, would think that most of the snow will have melted from previous days.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with light winds in the 5 to 10 kt with broken high clouds. Winds for the most part will be out of the south until about 15-18z for KDHT and then will start to turn more northerly. KAMA and KGUY is expected to remain more southerly with winds.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for TXZ001>020-317.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ003>005-008>010-012>020-317.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for OKZ002-003.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ003.