textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend favoring the southern Panhandles.

- Triple-digit temperatures return next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Weak upper low now centered roughly between AMA and LUB will continue to drift west through the weekend as it weakens. Vorticity associated with the low is forecast to rotate up through the Texas Panhandle this aftn and eve, with weaker vort on Sunday. Moisture is forecast to increase slightly from Friday and forecast soundings appear slightly more favorable in some CAMs while the GFS looks more similar to what occurred Friday. Given everything, believe a slight uptick in coverage of showers and storms will occur today and am showing a broadbrush 30 POP favoring the area near and south of Highway 60. CAPE is skinny and pretty limited with even the more agressive models showing only 400-800 j/kg to work with and little wind shear. SPC general thunder with no severe probs shown seems reasonable. There is a marginal threat for heavy rainfall per WPC across the extreme southern TX Panhandle and given very localized rainfall above 1.5 inches near Memphis today, this seems reasonable. POPs will be slightly lower on Sunday when only isolated convection is anticipated. Temperatures will be within a degree or two of climatology.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

H5 heights will increase through early next week as the low retrogrades and the high builds in from the NW. H5 heights are forecast to reach 596 DM by Tue. This of course means hotter temperatures once again and widespread triple digit highs are forecast as early as Tuesday. Hottest temps will occur late in the week as low level winds back more SSW from SSE earlier in the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A few showers have formed near KAMA this morning, but latest radar trends suggest these will stay southwest of the terminal. Can't completely rule out a rogue lightning strike with this AM activity, but chances are low (~10%). A better chance for more scattered thunderstorms will occur this afternoon, with KAMA once again most favored. Have retained the prob30 group at KAMA for now to indicate most likely timing of storm activity, but chances are still only about 20-30% for impacts at the terminal. Otherwise expect southerly winds at around 10 knots and VFR conditions.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.