textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of today and into tonight. Flooding will be possible with thunderstorms, especially where significant rainfall has recently occurred.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the Panhandles Thursday night and Friday, and Sunday night and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to track northeast throughout this afternoon, mostly expected to impact the eastern Panhandles. Given the saturated atmosphere, won't be surprised if additional light rain showers develop this afternoon back across the western and central Panhandles as it won't take much for rain to develop again. There is higher confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the northwestern combined Panhandles in the early- to mid-afternoon. With a still saturated atmosphere and tall/skinny CAPE, moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected. This may cause flooding issues for areas that have received copious rainfall over the past 24-48 hours (such as Hartley and Dallam counties). Rain may continue into tonight in the eastern Panhandles, but it will likely come to an end before Tuesday's sunrise for most, if not all, of the area.

The upper-level trough responsible for the grungy weather since Saturday will move off to the northeast on Tuesday and we will see the clouds clear progressively through the day. Expecting highs to warm into the 70s across most of the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Broad southwesterly flow aloft is expected across the Great Plains Wednesday and Thursday as a pair of troughs will be present across the Western US, one in the polar jetstream and the other embedded in the subtropical jetstream (STJ). A weak low pressure system is favored to develop in northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado which will aid in creating breezy conditions across the Panhandles. Expecting highs in the 70s to low-80s on Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions.

A shortwave embedded in the STJ is favored to track into northwestern Mexico and move northeast into west Texas Thursday night and into Friday. Current guidance suggests the trough axis may stay off to our south and east, but there would still be plenty of moisture and forcing to initiate shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the Panhandles. In a 24-hour period ending 7 PM Friday, there is a 20-50% chance in the southeastern half of the Texas Panhandle for rain totals to exceed 0.50", and 10-25% chance to exceed 1" for the same area.

Expecting near-normal temperatures across the Panhandles this weekend as one trough moves out and another approaches from the west. Could see rain showers develop Saturday afternoon, but that depends on the evolution/placement of the subtropical jet and timing of embedded disturbances.

The next weather system of interest is currently expected to begin impacting the Panhandles late Sunday but especially next Monday.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through much of the next 24 hours. There will be a chance for thunderstorms later this afternoon for DHT and GUY; have included a PROB30 group for both sites to cover this potential.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.