textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Hot temperatures are forecast through Saturday with record breaking highs expected.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Saturday and possibly again on Sunday due to breezy and dry conditions.

- Cooler temperatures are expected late this weekend into Monday with a warming trend resuming in the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

It pains this forecaster to report the persistence of the unfortunate weather stretch we're in, but our first triple digit temperatures of the year still appear likely for parts of the Panhandles by Saturday. Upper level ridging is dominating the synoptic pattern for a vast majority of the southwest to south central CONUS. Today we'll have light winds, sunny skies, and highs in the 90s. A rogue triple digit temperature can't be ruled out though, especially at our typical hot spots like Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River valley (10-20% chance). High pressure only further expands over the region Saturday, with rising heights aloft aiding this anomalously warm mid-late March. Mid to upper 90s will be commonplace across the entire forecast area, with the SE TX Panhandle and aforementioned typical hot spots approaching or exceeding the century mark (50-80% chance for 100). Winds will be breezy out of the south at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, which will pose a risk for critical fire weather conditions.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Long range models agree that high pressure will persist over the region next week. Despite the arrival of a cold front through the day Sunday, high temperatures are still favored to reach 80s in the north and 90s in the south. Pressure rises behind the front will support breezy north winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph (10- 40% chance for gusts up to 40 mph). These breezy and dry conditions would create elevated to critical fire weather for at least the southern and central TX Panhandle. Monday will provide a decent cool down back to seasonal averages in the 70s with a lighter 5-15 mph breeze. Much to the dismay of many, our warming trend will quickly resume Tue-Thu before another cold front arrives late next week. Some elevated to critical fire weather days can't be ruled out during this time frame.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

High pressure continues to bring warm and dry conditions with clear skies. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with light and variable winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday across much of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Winds are forecast to be out of the south-southwest around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon. The southwest winds will usher in drier air which will lead to relative humidity values dropping down to around 4-7 percent by peak heating Saturday afternoon. These conditions will lead to Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values up to 3-5.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for OKZ001>003.