textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

-Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats.

-Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the coming week, where we will have to watch for some strong thunderstorms at times.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows mostly clear skies across the southern High Plains with only some lingering clouds over the northern Panhandles from rain showers and storms earlier this morning. Cloud cover has cleared out much quicker than model guidance previously indicated and temperatures are warming up quite quickly with some locations across the southern TX Panhandle already reaching the lower to mid 70s at the time of this writing. This change does lead to increased confidence in storms forming later on today and potentially earlier than previously anticipated. Even though the shear will remain weak once again today, higher instability values may be a result of the good surface to mid level moisture and the higher surface temperatures.

The latest suite of hi-res guidance seems to be picking up on this trend by showcasing hotter afternoon temperatures than previous guidance, including the NBM. In addition to the warmer temperatures, the CAMs are showing the potential for isolated storms to develop across the eastern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. CAPE values by that time may be increasing upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg with effective shear values around 25-30 kts may lead to severe thunderstorms starting as early as 3-5 PM. Damaging hail appears to be the primary hazard with any severe storms and given what occurred yesterday, brief instances of hail up to 2 inches to potentially 2.5 inches (tennis ball) cannot be ruled out. The more likely max hail size would likely be 1.75 (golf ball) to 2 inch, but if the initial updrafts strengthen enough, the larger hail threat may materialize for a short time. Any outflow that storms produce could also lead to a lower end severe wind gust threat (60-65 mph wind gusts). Additional storms are expected to form across northeastern NM and move east associated with a shortwave trough moving southeast towards west TX. As these storms move into the Panhandles, they should encounter a more favorable environment for severe storm development and could also pose a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. This anticipated line of scattered storms should move southeast with the severe storm threat ending during the early morning hours on Sunday.

Weak flow aloft will remain in place on Sunday but low level WAA should lead to H850 temperatures rising a few more degrees during peak heating. Surface high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s with a few locations potentially reaching 90. Synoptic forcing does not look to be all that good on Sunday but convective temperatures may be achieved so cannot rule out some isolated storms developing during the late afternoon into the evening. The severe storm threat appears minimal at best even though there could be some instability available. The lack of forcing leads to low confidence in location or any severe storm potential at this point. If any storms do form, they should quickly dissipate during the evening after day time heating is lost.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Weak upper level flow looks to remain in place over the southern High Plains for much of this upcoming long term forecast period. Even though the flow will be weak, the southerly low level wind will keep Gulf of America moisture in place this upcoming work week. A weaker low pressure system is forecast to slowly move east on Monday and Tuesday which may provide some lift for showers and storms on Memorial Day and Tuesday. Any severe storm threat at this time looks too low to mention, but it cannot be ruled out if sufficient heating and instability can occur.

An elongated ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop by mid to late week stretching from the southern US all the way to central/northern Canada. The high pressure center may even be as far north as the Canadian Prairie Provinces by the end of the week. Thankfully for us this far south, the temperatures are not expected to be impacted too much by this ridge due to the high being so far north, so temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s next week. An H500 low pressure system should dig south mid week across the western CONUS. Any weak shortwave troughs out ahead of that system may lead to continued shower and storm chances for the Panhandles. Timing of those waves along with confidence in any storms being able to develop across the area is low at this time.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF period. PROB30 group was added for KAMA from around 23Z through about 02-03Z for TSRA potential where erratic winds from TSRA are possible. Otherwise, overall winds will be from the south and southeast at 5-15 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.