textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

-Thunderstorms are possible for the eastern Panhandles on Saturday, with a few storms could be severe.

-Potential for some locations to reach 100 degrees for high temperatures by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Looking ahead to Friday, a weak cold front will move south through the Panhandles throughout the daytime hours. A mid level trough moving east into the Rio Grande River valley of west Texas will keep moisture advection well south of the Panhandles. A more subtle disturbance in the main H500 NW flow by Friday afternoon across Kansas could produce a shower in the far NE OK Panhandle, but chances are under 10% at this time. Otherwise dry conditions overall are expected with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s in the northern combined Panhandles to mid and upper 80s for the southern Texas Panhandle.

A second mid level perturbation moving SSE out of the central Plains into the Panhandles by Saturday afternoon. Closer to the surface, a notable H850-700 moisture transport should advect moisture from the Gulf of America and reach as far northwest as the eastern Panhandles by Saturday afternoon with SE/E sfc winds. This should set up some sfc convergence over the eastern Panhandles in- conjunction with the lift out ahead of the main H500 trough axis for thunderstorms to potentially develop by mid to late Saturday afternoon. In the most aggressive model datasets, the sfc convergence boundary reaches as far west as a line roughly from Beaver to Pampa to Clarendon where storms develop in an environment of ~1000 J/kg of CAPE and sfc-6 km shear of ~40 kts. This could develop a supercell or two with large hail and damaging winds could be threats to watch. Also watching the potential that the better moisture transport is further east along the eastern TX Panhandle/western Oklahoma stateline where the majority of the thunderstorm development will be along and east of said boundary, which would keep the majority of the Panhandles dry. Also watching the potential for some rain showers along a stronger cold front by Saturday night moving north to south. Will watch trends closely as the overall setup develops in the next 24-36 hours. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A notable cold front will move through the Panhandles the second half of the coming weekend with dry conditions expected. High temperatures on Sunday will be at or below average for early May. The heat will turn up by next week, especially by the middle of next week where triple digit high temperatures will be possible. Latest global model data shows a developing ridge over the Four Corners Region with daily strong LL WAA into the Panhandles. Towards the end of the forecast period, we could see signs of some rain chances returning. High temperatures from Tuesday onward to the end of the forecast period will remain well above average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will start out of the south and southwest at 5-15 kts, shifting to northerly between 16Z and near 00Z Saturday, and then remain northerly through the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.