textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

-Thunderstorm chances, with a severe potential, will continue through the work week.

-The coming weekend is looking to be really warm with triple digit temperatures across the combined Panhandles Sat through Mon.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Mid to upper level high pressure continues over much of northern Mexico into Texas and southern AZ/NM. Quasi-NW flow aloft over the FA is present at this time. At H7, positive theta-e advection is taking place setting up a potential for showers and thunderstorms later today. However, confidence is low at this time whether a large enough disturbance in the flow aloft can bring thunderstorms in from the northwest. Instability for a severe potential will be in place along with the moisture. The question for today will be if there is enough lift and will it support storms well into the northern combined Panhandles. Only a 20 to 30 percent chances exist for this afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly in the OK Panhandle and far eastern TX Panhandle.

For Tuesday, warmer temperatures are expected during the afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 90s with the exception of the far northeastern combined Panhandles. In the northeast higher Tds should limit heating and stop temperatures short of the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thunderstorm chances return late Tuesday afternoon into evening, again to the north and eastern parts of the combined Panhandles. With Tds expected to stay in the 60s in Beaver County and northeast Lipscomb County late in the afternoon, instability is expected to be present. MUCAPE values are progged to be upwards of 3000 to 4000 J/Kg across the eastern, mainly northeastern combined Panhandles. If storms can get going in the area, sig hail will be possible with mature supercells. However, some last minute dry air entrainment at H7 may be possible and can hinder storms. CAMs are currently not very helpful as some keep all the activity to the east of the Panhandles while some send storms straight down the eastern stack of counties well into the overnight. Main timing for potential severe storms is currently favoring between 7 PM Tuesday and 3 AM Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible elsewhere in the FA, however, confidence is much lower. Will primarily be watching the northeast and maybe eastern combined Panhandles Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

No significant changes for the long term forecast. Wed and Thu will be the last days in the foreseeable future that thunderstorm chances continue with cloud cover from these storms holding back the warming process. The southern Texas Panhandle is expected to see temperatures reach the 90s while the northern combined Panhandles, where precipitation chances are the highest under northwest flow are likely to be held back in the upper 80s.

Friday, a few high clouds should hold back temperatures slightly. Just not as much as Wed and Thu, with the northern combined Panhandles reaching the 90s this time. Over the weekend a surface trough is expected to return to the area leading to triple digits temperatures Sat, and Sun thanks to drier surface conditions and warming H85 temperatures. The triple temperatures are likely to stick around well into Mon as well, with little to no chance for rain Sat through Mon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Thunderstorm chances for the Guymon terminal have been shifted to a later time frame tomorrow morning. Starting at 09Z, thunderstorms may be in the vicinity or overhead of the terminal and linger for a few hours. Some of those storms may also be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Impacts are also expected to visibility and ceiling; however, ceilings will already be MVFR across the region. A period of IFR ceilings are expected at KGUY tomorrow morning around sunrise. KAMA and KDHT should remain MVFR through the morning. Ceilings should rise and clear out at all sites by the early afternoon.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.