textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Isolated to may scattered thunderstorms may move into the western Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Main threat will be lightning and damaging winds.

- Thunderstorm chances return Tue favoring the eastern Panhandles.

- Heat headlines may be needed Wed especially PDC, as temperatures could reach the triple digits Panhandles wide.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A positively tilted trough is currently swinging through the Northern Great Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley as of this writing. The combined Panhandles have WNW flow aloft, which is progged to become more NW into the overnight hours tonight. Winds aloft are currently weak and will remain weak as the main system stays to the northeast. For today, temperatures are expected to warm about 10 degrees into the upper 70s to lower 80s as surface winds return to the south later this afternoon. H7 theta-e advection remains positive over the area, leaving some chances, although low for showers and thunderstorms. With the lack of upper level support storms will have to form off of the higher terrain and survive coming into the western combined Panhandles this evening. At this time guidance suggests much of the activity weakening if not dying as it gets to the Amarillo/Guymon line. A marginal risk is expected for the far western combined Panhandles as forecast soundings suggest inverted V soundings. If storms can get support from subtle perturbations tonights scattered storms could survive and move through the Panhandles all the way to the east during the overnight period into Tue morning. However, guidance suggest a bit of H5 PVA will be traveling more NNW to SSE than W to E, limiting the eastward extent of storm activity.

By Tue, the main upper level trough and area of low pressure is progged to begin swinging across the Great Lakes with high pressure building to the west. Light northwesterly flow aloft will continue at H5 with high pressure building over the Desert Southwest. With this high pressure building, temperatures are progged to reach back into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday afternoon. A bit of a surface trough is expected to move into the combined Panhandles Tuesday afternoon leaving the west slightly more dry than the east. The eastern Panhandles will have some 20 to 30 pops for late Tuesday afternoon into evening where the better instability may lay. However, cannot rule out some isolated storms forming across central to eastern combined Panhandles before moving southeast due to a shortwave in the northwest flow aloft. At this time PoPs remain less than 20 in the central to western Panhandles for Tuesday afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Wed, southwest winds at the surface under a surface trough will help feed in some dry and warm air. H5 heights are only progged to be around 586 dam, but surface temperatures are expected to in the triple digits across the combined Panhandles. H85 temperatures are progged to get into the 32 to 34 degrees C range especially across the central to western combined Panhandles. The NMB as consistently been giving Amarillo a high around 105. However, bias correction may be making this too high. A more reasonable temperature would be around 101 to 103. Therefore, have blended with CONSRaw and brought Amarillo down to 103. Palo Duro Canyon is highly likely to need a heat advisory for Wed afternoon. Depending on how far east the surface trough gets, temperatures across the eastern Panhandles may struggle to hit the triple digits due to better surface moisture and not as warm H85 temperatures moving in.

Wed into Thu is looking to be a dry period with little to no chance for showers and thunderstorms at this time. With pops returning to the forecast Thu night. Another upper level trough will evolve over the Upper Mississippi River Valley into Great Lakes allowing for another cold front to shoot into the area Wed night. This is expected to bring temperatures down another 10 to 15 degrees for Thu afternoon. With this system highs are expected to be in the 80s both for Thu and Fri before returning to the mid to upper 90s for the weekend. With weak upper level support pops remain low up until Sun night. There is hints at great H7 moisture returning under high pressure over the Gulf and subtle disturbances bring thunderstorm chances back to around 30 or above late Sunday. Right now the better PoPs favor the eastern combined Panhandles.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Some MVFR CIGs cannot be ruled out around sunrise and the early morning hours, 10Z-15Z. Especially for KAMA and KDHT. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms later in the period. First at KDHT starting at 21z then KGUY starting at 03Z Tuesday. Probabilities are too low at KAMA to have in the TAFs right now. However, this may change in subsequent issuances.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.