textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today across the Panhandles.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeastern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

IR satellite imagery this morning continues to show high clouds over half of the CWA. A cold front is starting to enter the OK Panhandle at this time with observations at Springfield, CO showing north winds at this time. Model guidance continues to suggest the front will stall across the southern Texas Panhandle early this afternoon. With the front coming in quicker than the blended NBM suggests, have blended in more hi-res guidance to the wind forecast for today to speed up the pace of the front. With that being said, also have adjusted temperatures down a few degrees for areas that will be north of the front by late morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast for today remains largely on track, but there are signs that the severe storm risk for the southeast may not pan out with the front moving further south.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Satellite water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over moving over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, there is another upper-level trough over the northern Rocky Mountain states, slowly spinning east- southeast as upper-level moisture advects into the Southern Plains. A surface cold front is currently present stretching from southeastern Montana southwestward into California. This cold front will move southeastward overnight and throughout the day Friday. Winds will be slightly breezy behind the front in the morning at around 15-25 mph, but will weaken to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. Most model guidance suggests that this front will eventually stall Friday afternoon somewhere in the southern Texas Panhandle, but there is low confidence as to exactly where it will stall. It should be noted that there are a few solutions that keep the front moving through the area without stalling, such as the AI GFS and AI ECMWF, but current expectation is that, given this is a relatively weak cold front with likely weakening surface winds behind the front. If the front does stall, there is expected to be some upper-level divergence via the right entrance region of the trough's jet streak which would create a weak surface low in the vicinity of the baroclinic boundary. This would cause surface winds ahead of the front to turn southerly or southeasterly and advect low-level moisture back toward the stalled front.

Thunderstorms will be possible along or south of the front in the late afternoon as vorticity streams across the Panhandles along with positive 700mb theta-e advection. This activity is more favored than not to stay south or east of Collingsworth county, but there is around a 20-40% chance for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle to see convection between 4 PM to 7 PM. The better chance for thunderstorms comes Friday evening as some guidance depicts the front retreating slightly and better low-level moisture moves in as a push of cool and dry air races south through the Panhandles. If this happens, forecast soundings show an uncapped environment with 1500-2000 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE along with 45-50 kts of effective shear. This would be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms in the far southeastern Texas Panhandle with large hail and damaging winds the primary concerns. However, depending on where the thunderstorms develop, there is some question as to whether or not the storms will be able to become severe before they move into Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will eventually exit the CWA Friday night as cooler air settles in.

Quiet weather is expected for Saturday as temperatures will be in the upper-60s to low-70s across the area.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The large-scale pattern for Sunday and Monday will evolve into a western upper-level ridge and a Great Lakes upper-level trough, with a southerly jet stream undercutting the ridge and extending through the Southern US. We will see a surface low develop in southeastern Colorado as a surface high exists to the east, resulting in a steep surface pressure gradient and breezy winds across the Panhandles.

A cold front is expected to move into the Plains Monday through Monday night, with current operational GFS and ECMWF stalling the front in southwestern Kansas. However, there are some ensemble members, mostly GEFS members, that bring the front into the Panhandles Monday night. Will have to watch for this possibility as that would throw a wrench in Tuesday's high temperature forecast. In any case, will have to watch Tuesday afternoon and evening for some showers or even thunderstorm potential. Low-level and mid-level moisture will move in and there are hints at some favorable forcing mechanisms as a weak shortwave moves in.

The upper-level wind pattern over the western half of the CONUS turn more zonal on Wednesday, and we could see a surface low develop in southeastern Colorado resulting in breezy winds again Wednesday.

An upper-level trough is forecast to dip into the Western US late next week which may result in showers and thunderstorms across the Panhandles. Stay tuned.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. A cold front will begin moving in over the next hour and should be through KAMA by late morning. Winds out of the north are forecast behind the front with gusts upwards of 20-30 kts. Winds will start to decrease this afternoon but will remain breezy around 15 kts out of the north to northeast through the rest of this TAF period. High clouds should clear out over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.