textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late tonight with potential to see all hazards across the Western Panhandles.

- Chances of more activity remains possible for the Eastern and Northern Panhandles Monday afternoon and evening.

- Active pattern continues to hold with more chances at precipitation Wednesday and next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

As of this morning present satellite continues see a majority of the Panhandles socked in with low cloud decks and a few stations evening reporting some light mist and fog. This activity should slowly weaken as we get into the late afternoon with skies becoming more scatter in the west. This cloud cover could become crucial for the expected activity late tonight as it can limit the amount instability building across the Panhandles before the Pacific front arrives around 9 to 10 PM tonight. Still some of CAMs runs from this morning have suggested MUCAPE values reaching around 1000 to 1200 J/kg across our far west and south. This recent trend in values has lead to multiple CAMs now giving us the potential to develop discrete supercells ahead of the Pacific front that will eventually merge into the expected squall line. Regardless, the primary concern continues to be on the high amount of winds shear present ahead of this front with some models evening suggesting 0 to 1km wind shear upwards of 30kts. With values like this in play, the threat of overnight tornadic activity will be present across the Western Panhandles with damaging straight-line winds not far behind. What may be our saving grace however, is the speed of this frontal passage. As stands multiple CAMs have seen this front pushing through the Panhandles rather quickly with most of the area looking to be in the stable environment behind the front as early as 3 AM. Once that occurs activity will transition more towards showers with some embedded thunderstorms that could linger past sunrise Monday morning. From here, more activity is expected to follow later Monday afternoon with the arrival of actual low-pressure system. However, most CAMs have this activity limited to showers and isolated thunderstorms in our north and east with any severe threat more situated in Western Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

With the full exit of the low pressure system late Monday into early Tuesday, most models do expected a very brief break in the form of a passing ridge for Tuesday. This ridge should allow for a bit of drier conditions for the day as chance of precipitation drop below 10 percent by sunrise that morning. However, temperatures will stay cool with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to 60s for the day. Moving into Wednesday and rest of the work week does look see the Panhandles return to our active pattern as models try to force a series of troughs and associated upper-level lows across the Panhandles. As of this morning, present long-term models have settled into better agreement on the first of these troughs with present agreement looking to push in it across late Wednesday. From here models have seen another ridge build behind this trough giving us another break to close out the work week. Beyond this break, models have hinted at another trough following this weekend. However, there is still a lot of disagreement on the actual strength of the trough by the time it arrives in the Panhandles. For now, present ensembles have chances of precipitation across the Northern Panhandles at around 10 to 30 percent for Wednesday. Meanwhile, the secondary system is only sitting at around a 10 to 15 percent chances given the still present uncertainty. Otherwise, look for temperatures to stay on the cooler side, with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

As of this afternoon, present satellite and observations from the terminals have seen this cloud deck and fog not wanting to break down. This has lead to both KAMA and KDHT bouncing back and forth between IFR to LIFR conditions for both their visibility and CIGS. Meanwhile, KGUY is faring slightly better with CIGs starting to lift more towards MVFR levels. Regardless present CAMs do see these conditions start to lift more as we get into the late afternoon and early evening thanks to incoming Pacific front forcing it out. Unfortunately, the arrival of the Pacific front will also be the start of much of our expected activity for the overnight. At this, confidence is still high on a line of strong to severe thunderstorms pushing across the Panhandles, which will result impacts to all terminals through the overnight. As for the impacts themselves, present CAMs have trend for the right ingredients to force all hazards to be in play, with the most likely concern being strong winds over 40 knots.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.