textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- A system is expected to arrive this afternoon bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday evening.

- A potential is present for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon in the SE TX Panhandles.

- Dry and windy conditions continue to trend for next Tuesday and Wednesday maybe even into Thursday, which could lead to critical fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Current GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough, with its axis running SSW to NNE, from the southern coast of CA up through ID. Southwest flow aloft associated with the leading edge of this trough already has the FA shrouded in cloud cover. Increased moisture from the Pacific and upper level dynamics from this system has given some PoPs to the area for overnight into tomorrow. The concerning part is where the best dynamics actually end up in the Panhandles before a dry slot moves in. A dry slot can be seen on satellite rounding the base of the trough at this near the central Baja Peninsula. Models have been hinting at dry slotting cutting off much of the beneficial moisture the combined Panhandles for this event. Two thirds of the combined Panhandles may very well have a high pop low QPF type event.

CAMs are currently showing the best showers and thunderstorms clipping the southeast corner of the TX Panhandle. Here some modest CAPE values around 500 J/Kg (ML) and 1000 J/Kg (MU) may be realized leading to some thunderstorms. Bulk shear is around 35 kts and would suggest some severe storms cannot be ruled out. However, Bufkit soundings suggest a very saturated, almost tropical sounding. The abundant moisture in the column should limit over hail growth, but may not completely rule out a few potential 1" hail stones. The main concern will be with straightline winds especially with the onset of a potential line of storms.

Multiple rounds of rain are possible with the first round of storms in the SE being the most likely to bring beneficial moisture. There may still be areas in the central to northwestern FA that don't receive measurable rain if the dry slot comes to fruition. But the entire area has at least some chance to measure a few hundredths. The north may measure rain with the second round associated with wrap around moisture late tonight into tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon, the far eastern TX Panhandle may see additional storm development that quickly exits into western Oklahoma as well.

With this system a cold front is expected tomorrow, and will bring northerly winds in the 15 to 20 mph range. This front is looking to the main focal area of lift for the potential redevelopment of storms in the far east southeast TX Panhandle Sat afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The current system bringing rain chances this evening into tomorrow will exit the area late tomorrow evening. Upper level ridging will build in behind allowing afternoon temperatures to rebound back into the upper 60s to lower 80s for much of the extended period. Some wind and fire weather concerns will exist mid week, next week.

First, Sunday's afternoon highs are progged to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Even warmer trends expected for Monday with H85 temperatures progged to reach near 20 degrees C. This will allow temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A slight breeze each day, Sun and Mon, will allow dormant grasses to dry out in the area. Mon night, an H5 trough is progged to dig down the western coastline of the US. As this trough progresses into Tues the FA is set to fall under the leading edge of this trough, which is expected to come with increasing winds aloft. These higher winds aloft are expected to stick around through at least Thu as the combined Panhandles stay under the base of the trough as it evolves across the central to northern CONUS.

Tuesday, a Pacific front is expected with the initial trough base moving in, which will help hold back temperatures in the western Panhandles. Only slightly though, with the main impacts being a strong pressure gradient and low Tds. This is leading to fire weather concerns, especially Tue, but also through Thursday. Some initial high level clouds with the system on Tue may limit some mixing from a stacked jet with potential winds around 100 kts at H5 and 170 kts at H2 on Tue. The full wind potential on Tue is unclear at this time. But with a potential LLTR expected as well, proper alignment of these key features may lead to a potentially very dangerous fire weather day Tue afternoon.

Winds are not expected to be as high on Wed, as the FA will not see as much subsidence under the right exit region of an upper level jet. However, strong winds are still expected to combined with low RH values. Even if fires are minimal on Tue, conditions will contribute to fuels becoming even more volatile.

As the mid to upper level trough continues to deepen over the western US, cooler air will be filling in at the surface and the FA is expected to see a gradual cooling Wed into the weekend. Afternoon highs on Thu are expected to be 60s across much of the area with the SE TX Panhandle maybe holding onto the low 70s. Dry air is continued to stay in place on Thu with Tds in the teens, maybe even lower, coming in from the west. Min RH values expected to continue to stay in 10 to 15 percent range. Something else to mention is the fairly poor RH recoveries expected Tue night and Wed night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase after 00Z Saturday

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Next week the combined Panhandles will be entering a pattern favorable for strong winds and dry air. Despite some chances at moisture tonight into tomorrow, much of the area will not see beneficial rain fall. Also, fuels are cured and will dry out quickly with warm and slightly breezy conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Tuesday is looking to be the most concerning as far as winds go, but will need some elements to line up just right to potentially reach outbreak type conditions. Continue to monitor the forecast, but for now different areas in the Panhandles are forecast to have RFTIs as high as 7 to 8 on Tue and Wed. Thu could still see RFTIs as high as 6 to 7.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.