textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Forecast remains on track for the upcoming week with heavy rain and flash flood concerns. There is the potential for this to be a high end rain event.

- Potential for isolated severe weather Tuesday through Wednesday morning across portions of the panhandle. This includes damaging wind gusts and tornados.

- Drier and cooler on Friday of next week with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Based on current water vapor imagery, Hurricane Polo is about make landfall on the Baja Peninsula. Further north another upper level low pressure system is evolving over southern CA/NV with its associated trough bringing moisture into NM and the Panhandles under southwest flow aloft. By this evening the center of Polo will be somewhere south of the NM bootheel falling apart and beginning to feed its tropical moisture into the southwest flow aloft as the other low deepens as it moves into AZ. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning mainly around and after sunrise in the western combined Panhandles. However, some of the heaviest and more scattered to widespread rain is expected later this afternoon into evening when Polo gets ingested into the trough and feeds the abundant tropical moisture into NM and the combined Panhandles.

With this tropical set up, instability around 1000-1500 J/Kg, showing as long skinny CAPE in forecast soundings rainfall rates could be as high as 3" an hour at times, but most likely will be around 1-2". Multiple rounds of rain especially in the western Panhandles where just a week ago 2-6" of rain fell may lead to some flash flooding and even some river flooding concerns. The tropical nature and low level helicity may even lead to a potential for a few isolated tropical tornadoes. Winds aloft will begin to ramp up as the upper level system approaches and would not rule out some isolated winds gusts of 60 mph with the strongest updrafts and downpours as well.

Going into Wednesday, precipitation chances are a bit more uncertain as some model solutions leave the majority of the Panhandles getting dry slotted as the upper level low pressure system comes across. The speed and track will determine the full precip potential for Wed into Wed night. As the southwestern Panhandles begins to get dry slotted Wed afternoon, the eastern Panhandles may see a brief period of isolated severe storms before the system moves all activity to western OK.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For Thursday, some chance PoPs stick around in the northern combined Panhandles as wrap around moisture circles the upper level pressure system as it comes across. The southern half of the combined Panhandles should stay mostly dry slotted, depending on the track of the low. However, some very light precip still may fall briefly Thursday afternoon as far south as the I-40 corridor. The heavy rain should be over by this time and any flooding will likely have already occurred, with the exception of potential river/creek flooding down stream from Tuesday into Wednesday's rain. The main story Thursday will be the arrival of an accompanied cold front thanks to the upper level trough. This front is progged to bring in some breezy and gusty northerly winds during the day. Highest winds that day are looking to be out west along the NM state line where gust could be as high as 50 mph. NBM gives about a 20 percent chance for gusts exceeding 50 mph for the Kenton, OK to Texline, TX area at this time. Slight chance PoPs Thursday night taper off going into Friday.

Post frontal afternoon highs on Friday may very well be in the 60s for much of the area. But the combined Panhandles should see afternoon highs rebound into the 70s to maybe 80 Saturday into Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Rain showers are expected to continue through much of this morning for KAMA, KDHT, and KGUY. Thunderstorms are eventually expected for all aforementioned terminals starting this afternoon and lasting into tonight, though Amarillo has the relatively lower confidence in direct impacts at this time. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong downdrafts, especially this afternoon and evening. Expect strongly reduced visibility with thunderstorms.

MVFR ceilings will eventually be introduced this morning, and KDHT and KGUY may return briefly to VFR this afternoon, expect cig reductions (from MVFR to LIFR)through much of the next 24 hours.

Vanden Bosch

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Anomalously high PWATs (200-250% of normal) will contribute to the potential for some areas to receive several inches of rain over the next 24 to 48 hours. Not every one will see the highest amounts of rain around 4"-6" that are probable, as these higher amounts may be confined to isolated corridors from potentially training storms. However, elsewhere isolated storms dropping 1" to 2" an hour rain rates over an urban area with poor drainage will see short lived flash flood issues that could lead to stalled vehicles and a potentially dangerous situation. Also, runoff from storms in NM as well as the Panhandles may lead to rising rivers and creeks over the next 24 to 48 hours. Main concerns remain in the central to western combined Panhandles where several inches of rain less than a week ago has moistened up the soils. Increased soil moisture in the west is expected to increase the potential runoff from this event. Though some areas in the Panhandle may only see rain totals in the 0.5" to 1.5" range, everyone should be prepared to face dangerous flash flooding and avoid driving through fast moving waters. Turn around and don't drown.

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AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ001>003-006>008- 011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OKZ001-002.