textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Persistent high pressure will remain over the area, leading to continued above average temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach 105 degrees in some locations this week.

- Very low (20 percent or less) precipitation chances will linger for mainly the northwest combined Panhandles through midweek, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail for most locations.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

High pressure continues to remain displaced off to the east over the Mississippi Valley, but is very broad in size. Unfortunately this will lead to mostly dry conditions despite ample moisture on the back side of the high managing to track into the NM area. There is a low chance ~15% that we get some moisture right along our state line, and into Cimarron County this evening for a shower or storm to occur but further east is not very likely. We will still take into account that residual low level moisture from last weeks storms may lead to an isolated storm managing to occur just about anywhere, but that really is only a 5% chance and not worthy of mention in the forecast itself. That being said there is some Cu development over the Palo Duro Canyon area, but there does seem to be a pretty substantial cap in place that would take a lot to erode. So confidence still not high that we will manage to get storms out of these. Temperatures will once again approach 100 in several areas this afternoon, and while tomorrow should have similar highs as the ridge shifts further east, and that should increase the cloud cover chances just a bit to the central and western Panhandles which could support slightly lower highs on Tuesday. Like today, there's a low chance that a shower or storm tracks along the TX/NM border or makes its way in to the western Panhandle in the afternoon. Given the heat and continued drying trend, we should continue to remain vigilant about elevated fire conditions, and that fires can still easily spark with these dry grasses, despite the overall weather conditions not being ideal for critical Fire Weather.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The ridge will stay off to the east Wednesday through Friday before gradually shifting west again. This will keep that dome of dry air mostly over our area, but could open the door for an isolated storm or two to occur over the western Panhandles. Pops are still on the lighter side, but will not be completely ruled out. Southwest flow over the Panhandles on Thursday may have a little impulse that moves across the area, and it could trigger a little better chance at storms, and another area to watch will be if there is remnance of what is currently known as tropical cyclone five over the Gulf south of Louisiana. That cyclone could approach close enough to possibly provide a little more moisture that might lead to better storm chances, but still at this time chances are not looking very good. As that high start to shift further west on Saturday and Sunday, it looks like we could be back in the widespread 100's for the Panhandles.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds mainly out of the southwest shifting more southerly. Very low chance that a shower or storm would occur, and therefore any mention of storms (mainly at KDHT or KGUY) would be dealt with via amendments. Wind speed for the most part will be 5 to 10 kts, but may at times be 10 to 15kts, gusting up to 25kts in the 18-03z time frame.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.