textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Freezing conditions across most of the Panhandles, and frost conditions expected everywhere else. - Dry, gradual warming, and breezy conditions expected in the coming days.

Abdullayev

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

After a cold morning, high temperatures look to rebound into the mid 60s in the northwestern combined Panhandles, while the southeastern TX Panhandle will reach the mid to upper 50s. A surface trough builds in Eastern Colorado that will switch surface wind directions to southerly. Winds will be greatest in the NW Panhandles due their location in reference to the surface low, allowing for greater warm air advection and diurnal mixing. This trend continues through Sunday, with dry conditions and gradual warming for all areas. Winds will be a little stronger and more widespread, gusts up to 35 mph are possible, as the surface trough deepens and shifts slightly southeast.

Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Early next week, a weak, cutoff low is still being analyzed in longer range CAMs and global models, however, it is now tracking too far west to keep the Panhandles in a favorable location for precipitation. Despite better moisture advection during this period, the westward shift lowers confidence in precipitation occurring across the Panhandles, which is reflected in our PoPs.

Late next work week, long range models are still deciphering what our next weather system will do. As it stands, a deep trough will enter the western US and track eastward. Operational models favor our region for potential precipitation, however, there are several discrepancies between them. Some show the trough not being as deep, and keeps positive vorticity maxima and the best moisture outside of the Panhandles. Others depict the Panhandles in the ideal location of both positive voriticity maxima and moisture, leading to a stronger signal of precipitation. Ensemble guidance has medium chances of at least 0.1" QPF at this time. However, high uncertainty remains in system timing and impact magnitude given the extended forecast lead time. As such, we will be watching to see how models resolve the trough in the coming days and adjust the forecast as needed.

Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites and are expected to remain as such through the TAF period. Winds will increase in the late morning to afternoon at all sites as expressed in the TAFs.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>014-016>018- 317.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ015-019-020.

OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.