textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

-Severe thunderstorms will be possible today and Saturday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazards.

-Mostly dry next week, but still a low end chance (~10-20%) of a storm for the far southern TX Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Latest 18Z surface shows a quasi-staitionary sfc boundary within the far northern Texas Panhandle with rather weak convergence along the boundary. Further south in the Texas Panhandle and just to our west in eastern NM, stronger SSE surface up slope flow towards the NM high terrain has begun to develop some showers and thunderstorms. Further aloft, an elongated anti-cylonic system with a perturbation moving east across the central Rockies is also aiding in general lift overall for the far southern Rockies as we further daytime heating. LAtest 18Z RAOB data from AMA shows a very limited shear and a marginally unstable environment with SB/ML CAPE just under 1000 J/Kg. However, our decent lapse rates and DCAPE environment grater than 1500 J/kg would definitely support multi cell cluster storms that move into the Panhandles from the west and northwest to support the chances of damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Highest probs of seeing damaging wind gusts will be the north central and northwestern Panhandles where overall best svr parameters are located. Longevity of storms are in question overall with aforementioned limited effective shear, but could propel a bit further east along any known sfc boundaries, so we will watch those trends closely into the evening hours. Some left over showers possible for the northern Panhandles tonight, especially along any residual outflow boundaries/cold pools. Saturday will feature a similar set up. Low shear, and conditionally unstable environment where lift for storms will take place either along a slow moving cold front moving south and/or NM high terrain development. Damaging wind gusts will be possible once again with any severe storms on Saturday. Went slightly below guidance for high temperatures tomorrow due to front potentially moving south quicker than anticipated. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower 90s in the north to mid to upper 90s in the southern TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The main H500 high pressure system as of thew latest model guidance going into next week is favoring the center of the high more into the Dakotas. This is more of a shift north compared to the last 12-24 hrs of model data. As a result, the far southern Texas Panhandle could be on the northern periphery of the main moisture transport axis with diurnally driven thunderstorm activity possible. Rain chances overall are still rather low (10-20%), but will watch trends closely over the next several days. Most of the Panhandles still under the influence of the main high to the north should remain dry. Temperatures will remain ear average for mid July.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period. The only exception could be at KDHT with VCTS conditions and PROB30 group for TS conditions between 00-06Z where erratic winds from thunderstorms will be possible. Past 06Z, VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites and remain throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds overall will start southerly and veer to westerly and then become northwesterly at 5-15 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.