textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Increasing potential for strong winds behind a cold front Sunday, with high probabilities of widespread wind gusts over 50 mph. These strong winds could cause elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are forecast on Sunday night - Monday morning.

- Warm and drier conditions are expected to create elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Record highs could occur today and again late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Latest satellite and mesoanalysis observations depict a very dry air mass over the High Plains being reinforced by stagnate northwest flow aloft. This will promote warming temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the 80s forecast across the Panhandles. The highlight of this weekend's weather will unfortunately be about high winds as well as fire weather on Sunday. The fire weather threat will be discussed in more detail in the fire weather portion of this discussion.

On Sunday, a high amplitude trough will strengthen as it digs atop the Great Plains. On the trailing side of this feature, a stout 100kt 500mb jet streak will traverse over the Panhandles, helping to pull a strong cold front with it. Rapid height rises behind the front will generate a stiff north wind as it surges southward, bringing sustained winds of 30-40 mph. Most model guidance show 40- 50 kt winds directly above the surface at 850mb, which should be easily mixed down to the ground with the fronts arrival. Latest trends from most datasets have focused 10-40% probabilities for 60+ mph wind gusts to the eastern half of the Panhandles where the better jet dynamics are favored to be, but these high wind gusts could still easily occur anywhere across the forecast area. Reduced visibility due to blowing dust may occur as well, so keep an eye out for that potential and use extra caution while driving.

Another consequence of this ridiculous wind will be the efficient advection of colder air. Assuming an arrival of the front by Sunday morning, high temperatures are progged to peak in the 40s and 50s from north to south respectively. Sunday night into Monday morning will be bitterly cold compared to mornings of late, when we can expect lows in the teens and 20s (wind chill values likely in the single digits and teens). A brief window of low chances for light precipitation may exist initially behind the front Sunday morning across the northern Panhandles, where pre-existing cooler temperatures could lead to barely enough saturation to produce some light rain/snow. However, forecast soundings hint that dry air should win the day for most, and any precip that does fall would have a hard time being measurable (10-20% POPs).

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Ensemble model data paints a dry picture for the High Plains of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as we push deeper into March. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained by an anomalously strong area of high pressure set to stubbornly build over the desert southwest. Monday we'll have some cold front hangover with highs in the 50s, but warm air will rapidly return through the rest of the week. Tuesday should be the most pleasant day of weather with highs in the 70s. As we enter mid-late next week, high pressure should have built further east towards the region, kicking us further into a summer-like warming trend. Current indications would potentially place near record highs in the upper 80s & 90s over the Panhandles Thu-Sat. Even if this level of heat doesn't come to fruition, signs of moisture are nowhere to be found and drought conditions look to worsen.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the next 24 hrs. Winds will be relatively light at 5-15 kts, shifting from southerly to westerly this morning, then settling out of the west-southwest by this afternoon and evening. We will need to keep an eye on potential low-level wind shear towards the end of the period.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Warm and very dry conditions will create elevated to low-end critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Panhandles this afternoon. Highest RFTIs of 3-4 are forecast across the west- northwest combined Panhandles where relative humidity values could fall as low as 5-10% in the presence of 15-25 mph southwest winds. Similarly dry air will exist elsewhere across the area, but lighter winds are favored which would support mostly elevated fire weather.

Despite cooler temperatures, dry and very windy conditions will promote critical fire weather across the Panhandles. Sustained north winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60+ mph will combine with minimum RH values of 10-20% to create RFTIs of 3-5 for much of the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Driest conditions are forecast further west across the Panhandles, while stronger winds are forecast further east. Regardless, the strong winds and gusts will be the main proponent for promoting dangerous conditions for potential fire spread Sunday afternoon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>003- 006-007.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ001>003.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ001>003.