textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 109 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Critical Fire Weather on Friday due to strong winds and very low RH values despite colder temperatures.

- Low to medium chance at some light snow accumulations on Saturday morning through mid afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 109 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

We continue with that break between systems today and as a result highs are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we head into the evening winds will start to turn to the north as a cold front currently in northern CO will track through the Panhandles. Winds will have an initial surge around 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph overnight. As we move into the afternoon on Friday we'll have decent daytime mixing and winds will continue out of the north northeast around 20-30 mph with gusts that could top around 40 to 45 mph. Temperatures will be on the cooler side, but still overall are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Given the strong north winds and colder air associated, it will feel colder. While the temperatures start to boarder on being too cold, there is enough of a concern with tomorrows winds and low RH values that we will have critical Fire Weather. See Fire Weather Discussion for further details. Winds are expected to be the strongest in the northeast and lightest in the southwest Panhandles. In fact, the southwest Panhandles may even go light winds, less than 15 mph by mid afternoon on Friday, while the northeast Panhandles are still gusting 35-45 mph. This is due to the sharp cutoff of the placement of the mid level jet that will help mix down those stronger wind gusts. Also why we are only concerned about the eastern to north central Panhandles for critical Fire Weather. Winds will drop off after sunset on Friday night and stay in the 5 to 10 mph range out of the north with overnight lows Friday night dropping into the teens to mid 20s, given the colder air.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 109 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Saturday will be the biggest day of note for the extended, as we "may" have some winter weather. We have a subtle wave moving across the east slopes of the Rockies across the Denver and Pueblo area that will track across the Panhandles early Saturday morning to mid afternoon. There is some suggestion that it will manage to pick up on a pocket of moisture that will accompany the trough across the Panhandle, and right now it's really focused only on the Panhandles. As its a narrow area of moisture, so surrounding areas are not looking at pops while we're looking at 20 to 30 percent chance. The timing of arrival and moisture depth looks to be just enough to have concern that we could get some light accumulations, maybe up to an inch (20-40% chance of a inch across the central an eastern Panhandles). The big thing to keep in mind is that this will likely work on a sharp gradient, as it may be a band or two of snow, and therefore there could be about a 15 to 25 mile swath of accumulating snow that drops off to nearly nothing outside that range. The timing favors possible accumulations due to the onset coming in early in the morning with the colder temperatures, so better chances of the snow sticking to the surface. With colder air settling in, the highs on Saturday continue to be pulled down, especially if some areas pick up some light accumulations. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Lows will be in the teens Saturday night into Sunday.

Sunday will return the roller coaster temperatures as a weak positive tilt ridge moves across the Panhandles, and should return temperatures into the mid 50s to lower 60s. If snow over performs in certain areas on Saturday, then open to pull the temperatures back a bit on Sunday to account for snowpack. Those temperatures will be short lived as Monday will be right back in the 40s as a weak back door cold front clips the area. This cooler air may linger through Tuesday, but the warmer air does try to move into the Panhandles on Tuesday. It just may not be early enough to bring highs above the lower to mid 50s.

We'll be watching Wednesday as models have picked up on a large swath of precipitation for the past several days. The problem is this swath has mainly been around the Dallas, Houston, Lake Charles area. It's been bouncing all over the place, but more recently it's been pulling that moisture further northwest, so much that one of the more recent updates has a little rain clipping the southeast Panhandles, so we'll see if the system continues to track that moisture more northwest to the Panhandles.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with minimal impacts to airports. Main concern will be some LLWS as a cold front comes through after 04z tonight. North winds will increase thereafter with the front and likely persist through the end of the TAF period.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 109 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Critical Fire Weather is expected on Friday. We have a strong jet associated with the cold front tonight and sustained winds 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are expected. While temperatures are on the colder side that we usually would see with Fire Weather. The very limited moisture that we've received over the past couple months, coupled with the very dry air bringing RH values down below 10 percent, would support RFTI's in the 4-8 range. And while anomalously warmer temperatures are preferred for critical Fire Weather, there's a good argument that any fire that starts should be able to spread in these conditions. SGPWO has about a 40% chance of large fires and 10% chance of significant wildfires in the Warning area.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for TXZ003>005-009- 010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for OKZ002-003.