textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening, some storms may be strong by severe weather is not likely.

- Very hot to dangerously hot temperatures are expected on Wednesday and these temperatures may lead to heat related illnesses, especially in Palo Duro Canyon State Park.

- Thunderstorm chances continue each day Wednesday and beyond with some storms having the potential to become severe each afternoon and evening. Highest chances of storms will come Friday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Storms continue this evening associated with the upper level system over the interior Pacific Northwest. The wave associated with that system has pushed through the first round of storms and they have struggled as they have run into drier air and have become more outflow dominate. There is a second surge of mid level 700 Theta E moisture that looks to aid in another round of storms in the southwest Panhandles this evening. Based on the environment already worked from previous storms the north western Panhandles do not look as favored for storms, yet some high res models are still suggesting it to be possible. The 700mb moisture surge does suggest a strong warm nose bulge on forecast model soundings in the western Panhandles and there is some lift with another subtle wave moving through, that could be enough to overcome the more stable air at the surface as elevated storms could be uncapped given this moisture surge. It's challenging as the models are liking the northwest for this evening and overnight, but overall the south has not had the precipitation yet, and would be more favorable. But again, despite weaker mid level lapse rates in the north, the 700mb warm air surge would support MU CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range in the northwest, so can't rule it out, However, this looks more like a hydro setup as PWAT's are going to be 1.3-1.5" very high, and the sounding is already moist, suggesting significant melting of the hail, and with storms being elevated, confidence in severe wind gusts are very lackluster. Maybe the best chance to get that hail threat would be the southwest since it hasn't gotten any storms yet.

Wednesday will have a good push of very warm 850 mb temperatures which will support hot to dangerously hot temperatures across the Panhandles. We will also have a surface low that will track into southeast Colorado and will push a strong surge of dry air across much of the Panhandles. This will set up a dryline mainly from the northeast Panhandles down to around the Claude to Clarendon area. Along and east of that dryline pop up storms will be possible (15% chance) with high DCAPE values along that area, the primary concern would be damaging wind gusts. Otherwise the Panhandles for the most part will be under heat highlights as widespread 100+ degree temperatures are expected, and Extreme Heat in the Palo Duro Canyon State Park is of concern as the high could get to 110. A fairly quiet night Wednesday night as east to southeast flow pulls the dryline back to the western Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thursday we'll be looking into the next weather system that will bring a cold front across the Panhandles, and that front could enter as early as mid morning into the OK Panhandle. Now how fast the front will push through plays a significant role in the severe weather potential. Right now the best chance is across the southeast as it's expected the front will be through most of the Panhandles and stable air will be in place before convection can take off. But the southeast could have very high CAPE values and given ample forcing from the front during peak heating, severe storms would certainly be favored for the southeast. Again, this assumes that the front times with peak heating and it doesn't push further south, in which the severe threat would go with it. In a less likely scenario that the front moves slower, we would have to expand that severe threat further north and west to maybe include Amarillo to Canadian (but that's quite a stretch right now).

Friday and through the weekend the chances of showers and storms will be on the rise with it peaking on Sunday. As high pressure over the Gulf and broad scale disturbances across the northern CONUS keep us in a more westerly flow, we will have good 700mb Theta E moisture and multiple waves could move through and help trigger on and off storms through the extended. Lower chances on Friday in the 20 to 40 percent range with 40 to 60 percent in the Saturday and Sunday timeframe, and then pops will pull back a bit on Monday into the 20 to 40 percent range.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Breezy southwest winds will continue at all sites, with highest winds over the Oklahoma Panhandle through the overnight hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-007>010-012>015-017>020.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.