textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

-Thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening with potential for some to be severe and the main hazards being damaging wind gusts.

-Storms will continue Sunday across the Texas Panhandle with chances around 20-40% but conditions dry out early in the work week for most of the region.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The overall pattern will begin to change from a roughly flat/broad ridge late this week to a much more pronounced upper ridging across the Central and North Great Plains as we move into the weekend and early next week. Starting Saturday, the upper ridge that was located roughly around the Four Corners region starts to really build to the north and heights rise across much of the central to western CONUS with troughing over the East Coast. This ridge will be mostly to our north but this will still allow some potential for showers and storms to occur south of this. A boundary associated with the eastern trough will drop south into the region Saturday and stall roughly near the I-40 corridor. With sufficient wind shear of around 30kts and DCAPE around 1400-1800 J/kg, this should be sufficient to bring at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday, especially along and south of that boundary position. These storms should diminish through the overnight hours.

Ahead of this, another warm day is expected with highs nearing the upper 90s and lower 100s.

On Sunday the upper ridge continues to build across the region, but there remains potential for storms to form just to the south of it during the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge will really become more centered across the northern Plains and encompass a large area of the Midwest. This will leave the Panhandles on the southern side of this, which will continue to allow for at least a few storms to remain in the forecast through the week. This will also mean that our temperatures won't be overly hot, but definitely a bit more like normal while northern parts of the country see abnormal heat for them. Later in the week, the upper ridge starts to slide off a little more toward the southeast United States and this will allow for what appears to be some kind of easterly wave to move into the region. This may enhance storm chances in our region but for now the official forecast will remain on the dry side pending on if the ridge does in fact break down or move off, which isn't favored by all of the global models.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue overnight as thunderstorms and rain begin to exit the region and/or not affect TAF sites. KGUY will linger with VCTS and SHRA for another few hours before clearing. Otherwise, winds will be rather variable overnight before coming out of the southeast today, shifting more southerly during the day. Additional showers and storms are forecast to occur later this afternoon and evening, with KAMA being the most potentially affected.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.