textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Forecast remains on track for the upcoming week with heavy rain and flash flood concerns.

- Potential for isolated severe weather Tuesday night and Wednesday in portions of the panhandle

- Drier and cooler on Friday of next week with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Quiet weather this afternoon across the region. Mid day satellite imagery showing only some high clouds streaming over the area as temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Mid level ridging building over the western plains will be short lived as an upstream trough now just off the west coast digs into the desert southwest over the next 48 hours. This will allow for one more day of nice weather tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s. During the overnight hours Monday night precipitation chances will begin to increase rapidly over the western areas of the panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Heavy rainfall and flood/flash flood event still appear on track even though there has been a westward shift in the guidance. WPC currently going with a 55% Moderate Risk for excessive rain Tuesday for the western half of the OK/TX Panhandles (including the Amarillo area). WPC has suggested this will likely become a High Risk as we get closer to the event. The remnants of former Hurricane Polo will get caught up in the developing southwestern US trough and be moving across southern and eastern New Mexico by Tuesday evening. With the westward shift in guidance, and the possibility of a dry slot affecting some of the area it is not out of the question that some of this excessive rain and flash flood area will become focused further west or northwest of the region. High end totals suggest 3-5" with lower end totals around 1". Therefore we will hold off on any Flood Watch for now and re- assess the guidance tonight and tomorrow morning to better refine the highest probability area for heavy rain.

Besides the heavy rain and flood potential there is the chance for some isolated severe weather across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Parameters would support some marginal severe weather so will maintain situatiuonal awareness on this aspect of the storm.... but to be clear the heavy rain and flooding potential is the biggest concern. The trough axis should swing through the area Thursday afternoon and this will lead to a drier and cooler day Friday with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR across the region and at the TAF sites. Winds becoming a light north-northeasterly and not expecing any significant weather through the forecast period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.