textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Potentially damaging winds are expected to continue through the afternoon, leading to reduced visibility due to blowing dust and difficult travel conditions.

- The strong winds and low relative humidity will support critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon.

- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are expected to be present tonight into Monday morning.

- Warming trend will look to follow with potential for record highs late next week with elevated fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The potent upper level trough currently centered over the plains will continue digging east southeast across the MS and OH Valley region through tomorrow, resulting in northwest flow as high pressure builds off the Baja coast. The cold front has advanced into the Permian Basin with strong to damaging winds, dust, and fires in its wake. The strong 60 knot LLJ and rapid height rises has resulted in widespread 60+ mph north winds across the TX and OK Panhandles, with the far southwest TX Panhandle being the one area that has not hit 60mph as of 19z (this area was furthest removed from the stronger low level jet winds at H85. The strong CAA and better H5 Vort Advection in the northern Panhandles did squeak out some snow flurries this morning near Boise City to Perryton, with no reported accumulation. These showers have been overcome by dry air and are no longer showing up on radar in our area. There was some question on the wildfire threat today due to the cooler temperatures, but a few fires have ignited in portions of southwest OK and one in Donley County. Dust has been a problem today, with the latest GOES Dust RGB indicating fairly widespread areas of dust. Most of this dust has remained lofted with no area ASOS/AWOS falling below 3 miles, but reports from public and spotters support localized areas of near zero visibility especially along US Highway 287 near Claude to Clarendon (worst conditions with added smoke from "Corner Pocket Fire" near Greenbelt Lake). Went ahead and issued a Dust Storm Warning based on these reports along 287 along with additional reports of a multiple car accident further down 287 near Quanah.

Conditions should dramatically improve after sunset tonight as surface high pressure moves overhead mostly eliminating winds after midnight. However, much colder temperatures can be expected as skies should be clear enough for strong radiational cooling. Expect lows in the teens tonight with wind chills in the single digits across the north. High tomorrow will rebound into the 50s, and winds will be on the low side at 10 to 15 mph.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The northwest flow aloft will persist as high pressure builds across the Desert Southwest and greatly expands through next weekend. This high pressure will lead to a notable warming trend, with potentially record breaking high temperatures towards the end of the week. The latest raw ensemble guidance (LREF) is showing 50th percentile afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s with 90th percentile values in the low 90s by Friday. Meanwhile, 50th percentile H5 heights of 594dm are indicated over the Desert Southwest Thursday into Friday, before slightly weakening and shifting east through the weekend with another potential cold front around next Sunday. Will need to monitor for some elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday through Saturday given how warm it will be with at least breezy afternoons.

Ward

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong northerly winds will continue for another hour or two. Should see a gradual decrease after dark, with winds eventually becoming calm. Winds should eventually return to the southwest later in this TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020- 317.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.