textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

-Critical Fire Weather in the west on Wednesday and winds may gust up to 45 mph in the western Panhandles. Be prepared for any new fires to spread quickly.

-Critical Fire Weather again on Thursday as very dry conditions with breezy winds will allow for rapid spread of any new fires.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Wednesday for the eastern combined Panhandles with large hail and damaging winds possible.

-Thunderstorms possible for the SE TX Panhandle on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Upper level disturbance will move across the Panhandles this afternoon and will bring a variety of impacts to the area. Surface low will track from eastern NM towards the southern Panhandles and draw up low level moisture for at least the eastern Panhandles. Mid level moisture will be ample for most of the day across all the Panhandles. That will lead to sufficient cloud cover, but also with the warmer air advecting over the area, we do expect some inverted V soundings up to 700-600mb. This will support some light showers, to possible virga wind bursts across the central and western Panhandles. Higher based showers further west as the lower surface dewpoints are expected. Tight surface gradients from another low in southeast CO will help drive stronger winds in the northwest Panhandles, and gust potential will be over 45 mph given the strong 700mb jet overhead during peak heating.

Further east, we'll be looking at the severe potential. It's very possible that all showers/storms that develop only become a wind threat, and maybe some dry lightning, before organizing into more severe storms. Models have things very close to really ramping up the severe threat as they approach that TX/OK border. But if the dryline setup starts off further west then that severe threat could start earlier. If a storm can get going, given the ample low level helicity and shear, we can't rule out all hazards. Overall the threat for a tornado is very low (~2%), but that's mainly due to the fact that confidence is low (~15%) that we even get a storm develop that will be in the severe environment long enough. We expect plenty of light showers and maybe even high base ones that can produce some lightning, it's just if the severe threat can ramp up before it moves off into OK, is the main questions. The primary time for the severe storms to occur in the east currently looks to be in the 4-7pm time frame. But showers could start as early as the afternoon tomorrow.

As we head into the overnight hours winds will still stay up a bit out of the west, in the 10-15 mph range. Southwest winds and drier air will return on Thursday with highs starting to get back in the mid 80s. This certainly looks to be a Fire Weather concern for a good chunk, if not all the Panhandles. The main concern is just how strong the winds will be in the eastern Panhandles. The surface low on Thursday will slowly track east overnight and that will lead to warm morning lows in the mid 40s in the northwest to upper 50s in the southeast.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Cold front to start to move through on Friday morning, but looks to stall in the central Panhandles. The dryline may retreat just enough to get some storms (possibly severe) to develop in the eastern Panhandles. With the stalled front, the southern Panhandles are expected to be in the 80s with the northern Panhandles in the 70s on Friday. Front will push through Friday night and the overnight lows will be back in the low 30s to mid 40s. North winds on Saturday with cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 60s is expected. By Sunday winds will come back around out of the southwest and warmer air will push back into the Panhandles with highs in the 70s. Conditions will hold steady for Monday, and then on Tuesday we're looking at a mixed bag, as we have some mid level moisture that may work it's way into the Panhandles, and a cold front will be very close to the Panhandles. Right now we hold the forecast pretty steady in the mid 70s Sunday through Tuesday, but would not that Tuesday is very uncertain given all the noted factors, and that a strong cold air mass is just over the border into KS, and if that shift further west, then we'll be looking a a much colder Tuesday next week. Pops are reasonable for the central and west with a slight chance heading into Tuesday.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As of early this morning, latest radar was seeing some weak showers already starting to move into the far Northwestern Panhandles with some broken cloud decks not far behind. These showers are likely to remain in the vicinity of the northern terminals through the morning with better chances at impacts coming this afternoon and evening. Currently any impacts would be minor as showers in the area will be on the lighter side. Otherwise, look for strong gust to be present at KDHT with potential see southwesterly gusts upwards of 40kt this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Critical Fire Weather expected in the western Panhandles today, and a good portion of the Panhandles tomorrow. Today the far western Panhandles, despite RH values in the upper 20s, will see Red Flag conditions given that winds sustained 25-35 mph will be possible and Gust may even break 50mph in a couple spots. ERC's over the 90th percentile with the winds, even though it will be a cloudy day with some light shower potential, is still enough to give RFTI's 2-4, just from wind.

Moving to Thursday, the winds will be back, not quite as strong, but more expansive across much of the Panhandles, and RH values down around 10 percent. For this a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for portions of the Panhandles. RFTI's will range from 3-5 for the central and western Panhandles, with 1 to 3 in the eastern Panhandles.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006-011-016.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001-002.