textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis today through Saturday. Chances for severe thunderstorms are low, but probable each day. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards.

Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding scenarios today and Wednesday across the combined Panhandles. The chances for flash flooding are low but cannot be entirely ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thunderstorms throughout the short term period will create conditional hazard cases for flooding, large hail, and damaging winds.

Convective activity will kick start later this afternoon as storms develop and move eastward out of New Mexico, Colorado, and the western combined Panhandles. Forecast sounding suggest another isolated severe threat could develop in the FA for storms with the strongest updrafts. Weak shear will mostly inhibit more organized convection; but if localized pockets of +35 kt effective shear could be realized, an isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out. The primary hazards with all storm modes today will be large hail and damaging winds. Seasonably high precipitable water is still expected to spread across the High Plains. Storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding in low lying areas. Their fast storm motion will keep flash flood concerns low, but if thunderstorms are able to train over the same locations within short amounts of time, the flooding potential may rise above a typical "nuisance flooding" event.

Overnight into Wednesday morning, storms should advance further into the central and eastern Panhandles. Severe thunderstorm chances should be much lower overnight, but storms with strong elevated cores have the potential to produce hail in the early morning hours. The same is true for our night time flooding potential. Storms will continue into Wednesday morning, with some breaks expected from precipitation. Yet, BKN to OVC cloud coverage should remain steadfast over the CWA. The next round of storms will develop in the afternoon, once again. Similar parameters are in place like today, so we can expect a continuation of our marginal environment for severe storms and flooding.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The overall upper level pattern continues to shift east with each new forecast package. These changes will promote a progressive eastward shift for PoPs and well as a slow increment of high temperatures through the rest of the week. 90s may not return to the region until this weekend, so 80s will prevail until then. Chance PoPs (25-55%) will persist Thursday through Saturday. Sunday onward we expect to return to drier and warmer conditions until our next pattern change occurs.

Rangel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions continue through much of the TAF period. Potential impacts to ceilings and visibility are expected tomorrow afternoon and KDHT and KGUY from thunderstorms. KAMA should be away from the onset of thunderstorms, with a slight chance for activity to uptick later in the night. Low confidence for impacts will keep mentions of thunder out of the KAMA TAF for now, but mentions may be included later if confidence for thunderstorms increase. Surface winds continue to be breezy tonight, but will die down later this morning. In the afternoon, strong, southeasterly winds are expected at all sites. Wind speeds and direction may become sporadic if influenced by a thunderstorm.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.