textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Thunderstorms continue this morning mainly across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeastern Texas Panhandle.

- Chances for thunderstorms are much lower this afternoon, but slight chances still exist across our west.

- Hot temperatures return this weekend and linger through the new week. The potential for temperatures greater than 105 degrees is also increasing across the southern Texas Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Tonight, recent 00Z CAMs suggest the MCS in Colorado should hold together and move through eastern portions of the combined Panhandles. There is still the question of the thunderstorms' integrity, as some models have a drier solution given the convective inhibition in the area. Still, tonight's environment is primed to receive thunderstorms in our northeastern zones, as long as the MCS in progress is able to tap into our elevated instability. MLCAPE is still forecast to be over 1,500 J/kg even past 4 AM tonight. While effective wind shear remains lack luster, some models like the 00Z RAP suggest shear will increase within the near storm environment. Western coverage of this complex is still forecast to remain somewhat low; however we cannot rule out a storm or two in the southwest Texas Panhandle. This solution will only occur with outflow assistance from the weakening storms moving east out of New Mexico.

This morning, thunderstorms will disperse as they move into western Oklahoma. Light westerly winds, high surface moisture, and sub 594 decameter heights will allow high temperatures to remain in the upper 80s and 90s across the CWA. Later Thursday night, another wave of thunderstorms are expected to move eastward off the high terrain. Coverage is still forecast to be low except in the far west, and the environment should support nothing more than general thunderstorms. Given how much lower temperatures will be today compared to previous triple digit days, even DCAPE values will struggle to get above 1,000 J/kg.

Tomorrow, the upper level high will start it's next eastward shift. Heights will rise and we will begin to experience above average temperatures through the region once again. Friday afternoon, highs may still stay bound to the 90s but a few locations may manage to sneak there way into the lower 100s. Thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon is anticipated to be much lower than previous days, but a storm or two cannot be ruled out in the far west as storms attempt to move out of New Mexico.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

H500 high pressure is still forecast to transition east and heights will expand across the southern US in the extended. Later next week, there are still differing solutions as to how far east the high pressure center anchors itself. Some models like the operational ECMWF suggest the high sets up over the Mid Atlantic and keeps favorable southwestern steering flow over our CWA. This will allow precipitation to still fall in our northern and western zones throughout the week. However, if the high sets up further west across the deep south and portions of the central CONUS, a much drier outlook can be expected for the next 7 days. PoP trends have decreased in the latest NBM forecast, so the potential for the drier outcome seems to be favored at this time.

Overall trends holds for hot temperatures to return to the entire FA. Highs next week currently range between 100 to 107. Heat product issuance is expected to return possibly as early as this weekend, but this will mainly be for Palo Duro Canyon.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

As of this morning, present radar was seeing majority of showers and thunderstorms making their exit out of the Eastern Panhandle, though a few lingering outflow boundaries have tried to start new showers around KAMA. This activity should either cease or move on by around 13 to 14 UTC with cloud cover slowly breaking down over the late morning. From their models see the atmosphere a bit too stable for there to be any confidence in new storms this afternoon, with best chances riding on storms moving in from the west late tonight. However, those storms may also struggle with confidence in any impacts dwindling with each CAMs run. Given this, we have chosen to not have any mention of storms in the present package beyond 13 UTC with VFR conditions being more likely to hold.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.