textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Flood watch continues over the northwestern portion of the CWA. 24 hour rainfall totals have been 2-4" with 88D storm total estimates over 6" between Texline and Dalhart.

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening in mainly the central and eastern regions. Very heavy rain fall rates could lead to localized flash flooding. In addition a low end potential for severe weather (mainly wind) is possible as well.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

An area of moderate rain is falling at mid day over the central TX panhandle. This is more of a beneficial rain as the rates are not sufficient for flash flooding. Visible satellite imagery through 17Z is showing cloudiness associated the rain over the western half of the TX panhandle while areas to the east are in the sunshine. This insolation is destabilizating this moist tropical air mass. So despite poor lapse rates and weak shear...forcing from differential heating and outflows will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over the eastern half of the panhandle this afternoon into this evening. Good moisture convergence noted along the southern edge of the precip shield eastward towards the CDS area....and suspect this will be the likely area for the first development in the next 1-3 hours. Actually just looking at the latest radar image we are seeing some development already occuring in Hall County TX (just west of CDS). Latest water vapor imagery continues to show a fetch of tropical air being advected north-northeast into west TX while a shortwave trough lifts northeast to provide additional forcing across the area. The rainfall rates from these storms will be sufficient to cause some flash flooding as PWAT's in the eastern panhandle is 1.4 to almost 1.8"...which is 95% or better for this time of year. While there is a low end threat for severe winds this evening the main concern will be the heavy rain and potential for flash flooding. Additonal storms will likely form overnight across portions of the central panhandle bringing more rain to the area. On Friday scattered storms are likely to form again in the afternoon over the area with heavy rain once again possible.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The shortwave trough coming out of the southwest U.S will break down the high pressure ridge in east Texas over the weekend..and the multi day heavy rain event will be coming to an end. As this occurs we should see temperatures warm about 10 degrees over the weekend into the upper 80s as we begin to dry out. SPC does have a Day 3 Marginal Risk over our eastern areas but this is a low probability situation at this time. Will continue to monitor trends for Saturday. In the extended models still showing a trough digging itno the southwest US. Differences exist between the ECMWF and GFS for next week. The ECMWF wants to pick up the remnants of the hurricane and bring the moisture across Texas while the GFS shows the trough missing the hurricane and it slowly wanders in the east Pacific. In any case cooler temperatures are expected with highs dropping back into the 70s to around 80 in the early to middle portion of next week. Will continue to monitor trends over the next few days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Showers should be coming to an end for awhile across the AMA/GUY/DHT TAF sites. However, additional pcpn is expected to develop this evening which could affect the TAF sites for a good portion of the overnight hours. Vsby will be reduced in showers and tstms and MVFR to IFR cigs are possible during the late night and early morning. While there could be some gusty winds near any tstm...at this time not expecting winds to get too out of hand.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ001-002.