textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the central and northern Panhandles Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storm may become strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Thunderstorms will be possible on a nightly basis from Sunday through Thursday.

- Widespread upper-90s to mid-100 degree temperatures return to the Panhandles on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Thunderstorms, some of which strong to severe with heavy rain, are expected to continue through tonight and perhaps linger shortly after sunrise on Friday. Clouds are expected to linger through Friday morning and into the afternoon hours before starting to break up. Thunderstorms are favored to develop in the higher terrain in New Mexico and will at least try to work east with some decent steering flow aloft. However, their ability to survive into the Panhandles will depend on the quality of destabilization that can occur. The NBM gives 20-30% PoPs in the eastern Panhandles in the evening, but that is highly uncertain; there is very weak forcing aloft, not much (if any) source for lift from the surface, and also greatly depends on sufficient destabilization occurring.

Saturday, a shortwave trough will traverse from the West Coast into the Intermountain West, with 20-40 kt 500mb winds and 40-60 kt 300mb winds overspreading the central and northern Panhandles. Temperatures will warm into the 90s area-wide along with dew points in the 60s. 700mb winds will turn southwesterly and strengthen slightly through the day which will tap into a reservoir of deeper moisture present across south Texas and Mexico. This, along with steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, will set the stage for moderate instability coupled with sufficient wind shear for thunderstorm organization. A subtle perturbation in the jet stream is favored to clip the northern Panhandles in the mid/late afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms will be possible across the central and northern Panhandles, and they will have the potential to become strong to severe. Forecast soundings indicate 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 35-40 kts of effective shear with enough directional shear for rotating updrafts. Thus, the storm more is favored to be supercellular at least initially. The number of storms in the CWA is very much in question, but given that the Panhandles will be on the periphery of the stronger forcing, we shouldn't see extensive thunderstorm coverage. This should decrease the likelihood of developing line segments, but cannot entirely rule it out if the initial development becomes outflow dominant quickly. Hail in excess of 2" in diameter and at least 60 mph wind gusts will be possible with any severe thunderstorm. If a supercell can remain discrete after 6 PM, won't entirely rule out a low-end tornado threat as LCLs lower and low-level wind shear increases as the low-level jet strengthens. Thunderstorm activity should weaken by Midnight.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Sunday, the Panhandles will be sandwiched between an upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico and a shortwave trough over the Plains. A surface low is favored to track out of Colorado, into the northern Panhandles, and continue eastward Sunday morning. This will draw moisture eastward out of the Panhandles as a cold front moves in from the north. There is quite a bit of disagreement among model guidance revolving around the cold front; timing and how far southwest the front pushes. This leads to high uncertainty in the high temperatures for Sunday, but it should be a dry day. Embedded mid-level vorticity is favored to move into the Panhandles Sunday evening. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible, but it will depend on the availability of mid-level moisture; it looks as though some dry air aloft could still be lingering which would make it difficult for sustained activity.

As the shortwave trough moves off to the east on Monday, the upper- level ridge over northwestern Mexico will be able to build northward into the Southwest US. This will cause upper-level winds to turn northwesterly over the Panhandles. Mid-level moisture may be able to advect into the Panhandles throughout Monday, and we could see thunderstorms develop in the high terrain of New Mexico and Colorado and eventually work into the Panhandles late in the day. These storms will have the potential to become strong to severe, but specific details are too uncertain to discuss at this time.

This northwesterly flow regime is favored to remain through the remainder of this long-term period. If this comes to fruition, then we can expect nocturnal thunderstorm chances each night with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Often in such cases, we will see a night that is dry because the atmosphere was unable to recover from previous nights' activity. However, it's far too early to determine which day that might be, and will certainly support PoPs each night at this time.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MVFR ceilings are in place at all sites, with occasional IFR ceilings occurring at KAMA this morning. Cloud decks will gradually lift to VFR and clear out from all sites by the early afternoon hours. Winds will settle out of the south-southeast at 10-15 kts for most of the period.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.