textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Thursday and Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend behind a series of cold fronts that move across the region from Thursday night through Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday and Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

The upper level jet will continue to remain in place across the southern High Plains on Thursday. This feature will aid in the continued breezy to gusty winds across the Panhandles. The breezy winds will already be in place to start the day with gusts up to 30 mph. Winds will become more northwesterly for at least a few hours during the late morning to early afternoon time frame as the surface low quickly moves east across central to eastern Kansas. There will likely be a pocket of lower winds somewhere from the northwest to southeast on Thursday afternoon, splitting the Panhandles from higher winds on either side of this feature. Just exactly where that sets up is unknown, but for areas across the southwest, winds may remain westerly whereas on the northeast side of the feature, winds will be out of the northwest. This does lead to a tricky wind forecast for tomorrow afternoon. A backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast to east Thursday evening into the night. This front will switch winds to out of the northeast to east going into Friday morning. Thankfully, winds are only expected to be around 10 mph or so in the wake of the frontal passage. The front will usher in much cooler air with lows forecast to drop below freezing on Thursday night.

The easterly winds behind the front will be short lived as another leeside surface low develops by late Friday morning. Southerly winds initially will become westerly, especially for the west and central, by early afternoon. The winds will become breezy to gusty once again, especially across the west, with gusts potentially reaching 40 to 50 mph on Friday afternoon. Even though temperatures will only be in the 50s to low 60s, relative humidity values drop down into the lower teens once again and elevated to critical fire weather conditions will arise as a result. Very light rain or snow cannot be ruled out across the Oklahoma Panhandle on Friday afternoon as the base of a H500 trough combines with just enough mid level moisture to produce showers. The better chances will be north of the Oklahoma Panhandle, but will keep a 15-20 percent chance in the forecast for now. Another cold front moves south across the region on Friday night bringing another reinforcing shot of colder air over the Panhandles.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

By sunrise on Saturday, a cold front should be south of the forecast area with breezy northerly winds in its wake. The cold front will usher in a cooler air mass and forecast highs on Saturday are actually slightly below average in the mid to lower 50s. Fire weather concerns are not expected for Saturday given the cooler temperatures. A ridge will begin to develop across the western CONUS on Sunday. The Panhandles will be on the eastern side of the center axis to end the weekend and temperatures will start to slowly climb back up into the mid to upper 50s for Sunday. Going into next week, the upper level ridging pattern looks to remain firmly in place across the southern CONUS, including the southern High Plains. This will lead to temperatures rising back up above average by Monday and continuing through the week. With the warmer temperatures returning, elevated to critical fire weather may return next week with any days that have breezy to gusty winds.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds will be out of the northwest at 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts at times. Winds should then subside past 00Z and veer to more easterly before becoming more southeasterly by 12Z tomorrow with winds at 5-15 kts. Winds will then increase to 15-25 kts sustained out of the south towards the end of the TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Friday for TXZ001>003- 006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Friday for OKZ001-002.