textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Low Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms remain present across the Western Panhandles for Friday.

- Very hot and dry conditions brings increased heat risk and the potential for elevated fire weather conditions this weekend.

- The potential for thunderstorms in the panhandles returns next work week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A high pressure system remains the dominant weather feature across the southern plains for the next couple of days. Currently the high pressure is centered further to the west across the desert southwest leading to a northwesterly flow aloft over the southern plains. This flow will allow for small scale weather systems to move across the flow and impact the panhandles today. For this morning this allowed a small weather system to pass across the panhandles leading to the current rain showers and thunderstorms. These are likely to dissipate by the mid morning hours. Later this afternoon and evening further weather system are likely to impact the panhandles introducing a low to medium chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. The most likely area for these storms to form up is in better moisture of the central panhandles and then progress southward. The environment shows CAPE of roughly 1500-2000 J/Kg with shear of 30 to 40 kt. This indicates that storms will be able to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. These storms are then most likely to come to an end towards the early morning hours of Saturday. The high pressure will continue to causes heating across the southern plains today leading to hot conditions. This will once again see the highs in the upper 90s to low 100s with the hottest areas such a Palo Duro Canyon potentially reaching past 105. This bring the specter of heat risk once again so proper hydration is recommended to stave off heat illness.

On Saturday the high pressure system builds further eastward leading to the end of the northwest flow. This will cut off the moisture feed to the panhandles leading to a drier and calmer weather day. However the repositioning of the high will bring even hotter conditions to the panhandles as the heating from the high pressure system increases. This will see the high climb into the 100s across almost the whole the panhandles and more areas seeing highs past 105. This brings an increasing risk of heat illness to the panhandles, so proper hydration is still highly recommended for all who are outdoors. With the increasingly hot and dry conditions elevated fire weather conditions will start to encompass a large portion of the panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

There is a very high chance for the high pressure system to remain the dominant weather feature across the southern plains through much of, if not all, of next week. However just because it is the dominant weather feature doesn't mean it wont be dynamic with the strength of the system waxing and waining and it's center moving around. It is that flux that will bring changing weather across the panhandles for next week.

Sunday will most likely still have the high pressure preventing moisture from arriving in the panhandles keeping the weather dry.

This most likely change starting Monday as the high pressure starts to weaken and shift around allowing for limited moisture. This reintroduces at least a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms that will continue through Tuesday.

For Wednesday and the rest of the work week the high pressure is more likely than not to weaken. The high pressure center is most likely to shift back the desert southwest with a lesser chance for it to become an open ridge of high pressure. Either way this will allow for more moisture and small weather system to push into the southern plains. This increases the chances for rain showers and thunderstorms during the second half of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with southerly winds decreasing from 15 kts to 10 kts after 18Z. A potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will exist across parts of the combined Panhandles after 22Z. The only terminal with high enough confidence for a prob30 group at this time is KDHT. If confidence increases for KGUY and KAMA prob30 groups may be added in subsequent TAF issuances or amendments may be needed after 22Z.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.