textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Isolated showers that may result in mostly gusty winds with little precipitation today and tonight. Will not rule out some pockets of thunder embedded in these showers.

- Mostly dry and breezy conditions expected to prevail through Wednesday.

- Thursday night into the weekend will be the next return of showers and storms, and rainfall may be enough to result in some flooding concerns starting Friday evening and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Southwest flow aloft is progged to keep high clouds around for today. This is expected to hold afternoon highs back in the lower to mid 70s for much of the area. Along with keeping a very slight chance for showers, maybe even isolated thunder through today. Any shower activity is mainly expected to keep to the central and northern parts of the Panhandles. A short-waves rippling through the flow aloft should be just enough support to bring the slight chances (10-20 PoP). Once the main short-wave moves out, upper level ridging is progged to build in tomorrow. This will bring clear skies back along with temperatures reaching for the lower 80s. The typical warm spots off the caprock should not have problem with achieving the lower 80s, while on the caprock temperatures may hold short at 79. Surface winds are also expected to drop off for Wednesday afternoon to the 5-12 mph range. Until then expect 15-20 mph winds out of the south once again today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Thursday, the next big upper level trough is expected to dig down the west coast. While staying under the ridge for the mean time, high temperatures are expected to be above average again just like Wed. However, the approaching system should bring back a tighter surface gradient and increase surface winds back to the 15- 20 mph range. This next system is expected to bring cooler temperatures back starting Friday with afternoon highs progged to be a few degrees cooler. The current signal is that PoPs will be returning to the Panhandles once again Thu night. However, there is still some uncertainty to the potential rain amounts and best timing for showers/storms Friday into the weekend. With 30 to 60 PoPs progged through much of the weekend, increased cloud cover will potentially hold afternoon highs back in the 60s. PoPs are tapering off late Sunday into Monday but some 20-30 PoPs are holding on for now, until the system speed is fully known.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail with high clouds and southwest winds up to 15 kts. There is a low chance for some high based light showers and maybe even thunder. The probability for thunder and rain at any one terminal is very low and should not see any impacts outside of some potential erratic wind gusts from these showers if they form close enough.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.