textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Warm, breezy, and dry conditions could create elevated to critical fire weather on Sunday and Monday.

- Light rain showers will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday, primarily across the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon.

- Wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out in the far northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. No accumulation is expected at this time.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

After fantastic weather today, mostly inconsequential weather is forecast through the rest of the weekend. A broad perturbation situated to our west over the Rockies will be displaced tomorrow by upper level ridging, which will kick off a warming trend to start the week. Highs tomorrow are forecast in the 80s, with drier air filtering in across the region (relative humidity values dipping into the teens). Breezy west winds will usher in this drier air, sustained at 10-20 mph with slightly higher gusts at times. This combination will create elevated fire weather conditions across the Panhandles, with perhaps some spotty low-end critical conditions showing up as well. Overnight lows will dip to the 40s and 50s the next couple of nights.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Models show the aforementioned ridge sliding more solidly atop the Panhandles Monday, further promoting the early week warming trend. Temperatures will rise to the 80s and low 90s through the day due to climbing 850mb temps and downsloping west winds of 15-20 mph gusting mostly around 30-35 mph. Dry air should be reinforced, with yet another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions, especially across the Texas Panhandle. After a notable cool down behind cold fronts Tue-Wed, warm air is likely to return later next week when the synoptic pattern favors upper level ridging once again. With that cool down though, the northern Panhandles will have 40-70% probabilities for high temperatures to stay below 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon after near freezing morning lows.

Moisture opportunities remain annoyingly hard to come by for the Panhandles, but a lucky few may just find some behind the cold fronts slated to arrive Monday night - Wednesday. Behind this initial front, a pool of low-level moisture could be utilized for light precipitation as weak disturbances arrive ahead of our next upper level weather system. Given the very shallow nature of this moisture as depicted by model forecast soundings, this would likely support only very light rainfall. The north-northwestern Panhandles are best favored for this opportunity (40-70% POPs), especially on Tuesday- Tue night. There are doubts on how long and how far south this moisture will reside, leading to much lower POPs across the southern and central Panhandles (10-40%). To reiterate, any areas that do receive rain have much higher likelihood for totals to remain less than 0.1". Based on near freezing sfc temps in the northwest Panhandles early Wed morning, we can't rule out some wintry precip briefly mixing in with the rain, but accumulating frozen precip is not expected at this time.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will go from light and variable to out of the southwest at 10-20 kts overnight into tomorrow morning.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.