textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Thunderstorms are expected today along and near a cold front, continuing into tonight. A few storms may become strong to severe this afternoon and evening with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday and Saturday through Wednesday. There is a very low chance for severe thunderstorms on Thursday with the primary hazard being large hail and damaging winds.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

As of 10 AM, a cold front is stalled roughly in the far northern Oklahoma Panhandle to extreme southwestern Kansas, stretching west into northern New Mexico. A secondary push of cooler air, also marked by breezy winds associated with a high pressure system moving west to east, is in northeastern Colorado and moving southward. This secondary push of cooler air will likely meet up with the stalled front in the late morning (at the earliest) to early afternoon, and it should begin to push the front southward. We should start to see showers and thunderstorms begin to develop between 2 to 3 PM across the Panhandles, with the greatest coverage expected along the cold front but at least isolated coverage can be expected south and north of the front. A potential fly-in-the-ointment for thunderstorms in the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon will be an area of vorticity that's apparent in water vapor imagery in northwestern Texas. This could introduce some subsidence via weak negative vorticity advection. It's currently unclear if this NVA will be enough to fully suppress thunderstorm development in the southern Texas Panhandle, but the CAMs are hinting that we could see thunderstorms try to develop in the southern Texas Panhandle but quickly weaken and dissipate.

Further north (along and north of the Canadian River Valley), however, there is less conditionality for thunderstorms. Instability will be present, but will largely depend on how much the low-level moisture gets mixed out today. Given observations of most models over-mixing lately, will opt to assume that trend continues today; MLCAPE values will likely be in the 1000-1750 J/kg range, particularly north of the warm front where there is better low-level moisture content. However, wind shear will be very weak which will favor short-lived individualized cells that produce outflow boundaries. DCAPE values today will be around 1000-1200 J/kg, and despite weak storm motions, this should still support a low-end threat for wind gusts up to 65 mph. Hail will likely be difficult to come by given the overall moist atmosphere and lack of thunderstorm organization (both factors favor melting hail) and somewhat warm temperatures aloft. Flash flooding will also be a hazard today, particularly north of the Canadian River Valley, due to PWATs over the 95th percentile, weak storm motion, and generally tall/skinny CAPE. These factors will favor heavy to torrential rainfall with any thunderstorm, with isolated pockets of 1 to 3 inch per hour rain rates. Thunderstorms will likely continue through the evening and after Midnight as the cold front pushes southward with lobes of vorticity helping to enhance thunderstorm coverage. Forecast soundings shown on the NAM, HRRR, and GFS show thermodynamic profiles that are known to be favorable for heat bursts; won't be surprised to see a heat burst tonight across the Panhandles with decaying thunderstorms.

Tomorrow, shower and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours, but there is some uncertainty as to how widespread they'll be. The cold front should be fully through the Panhandles although we'll see winds change to easterly or southeasterly as the front begins to dissipate. A relatively well-defined shortwave trough (for early September standards) will move from western Kansas into Oklahoma in the afternoon and thunderstorms are favored to develop roughly along the shortwave trough axis. As it stands now, it appears that the vorticity associated with the shortwave will moreso favor thunderstorm development in Oklahoma and south of the Texas Panhandle with subsidence reigning in the southern portion of our CWA in the mid-afternoon. The NBM has 20-40% PoPs south of the Canadian River tomorrow afternoon which seems a bit high, but given remaining uncertainty with the timing of the shortwave (speeds up slightly, we could be out of the subsidence sooner; slows down slightly, more favorable forcing), will leave it alone for now but am quite skeptical of the prospect of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon in this CWA. That said, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later in the afternoon from the high terrain in New Mexico and perhaps briefly in the central Texas Panhandle. The thunderstorms that move in from New Mexico will have the potential to become strong to severe due to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 30-40 kts. Thus, a supercell cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. Additional lobes of vorticity are expected to move in through Thursday evening, potentially bringing in a chance for showers and thunderstorms into the southern Texas Panhandle. However, this will depend upon the ability to destabilize from morning convection and potentially afternoon cloud cover.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A low amplitude jet stream is expected to set up across the CONUS on Friday with zonal flow stretching from the West Coast to the Plain. A surface low will develop in eastern Colorado and quickly push northeast, which will cause the surface winds in the Panhandles to turn southerly to southwesterly at 10-20 mph. We'll see temperatures become hot again, ranging from the mid-90s to low-100s, and given the overall lack of forcing, expecting it to be a dry day.

We'll see the jet stream become even more zonal across the CONUS on Saturday. A very weak 700mb shortwave is forecast to move into the Panhandles and create a low-end chance for thunderstorms across the eastern Panhandles.

Getting into Sunday, a Fall-like shortwave trough is forecast to track from the Intermountain West into the Upper Midwest. This steepened surface pressure gradient will cause surface winds to strengthen across the Panhandles into the 15 to potentially even 25 mph range. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions, but it will certainly depend upon how much rain falls leading up to Sunday. Thunderstorms that develop in New Mexico may try to work into the western Panhandles Sunday evening, but confidence is very low at this time.

Confidence in the forecast substantially decreases Monday and beyond. A cold front associated with the aforementioned Midwestern trough is expected to barrel into the Plains, but there is a wide range of outcomes with that front. This includes the potential for a significant cooldown with a low percentage of ensemble members suggesting highs could be in the 70s to 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another factor that will need to be monitored is the potential for moving into an active weather pattern; the NBM already has 30-50% PoPs from Monday through Wednesday. However, that seems quite ambitious for being 6-8 days out and lacking a large synoptic system , but overall, it is apparent that the pattern could turn more active next week.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Thunderstorms are favored to develop this afternoon and potentially impact all terminals. However, confidence in timing of impact is low at this time and will likely need amendments once confidence increases. For now, have included PROB30 groups to cover this afternoon and evening to cover the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms, especially for Dalhart and Guymon. Any thunderstorm will produce heavy to very heavy rain that will significantly reduce visibility, and will also have the potential to produce strong downdraft wind gusts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.