textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions today will create dangerous conditions for wildfires to spread rapidly. Strong winds behind tonight's cold front are expected to exasperate efforts on ongoing fires.

Abnormally hot temperatures may create hazardous outdoor conditions today, as widespread 100s are forecast for the combined panhandle. The Palo Duro Canyon may experience surface temperatures as hot as 106 degrees.

Strong winds behind tonight's cold front may create hazardous driving conditions overnight and blow around loose objects.

UPDATE

Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Latest high resolution model runs continue to see a strong 850mb jet settle over Panhandles during the overnight hours of tonight into Friday morning. Current trends continue seeing good efficiency for this jet's wind making down to the surface with potential to see northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gust upwards of 55 mph. Given this a Wind Advisory has been issued for the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles starting at 1 AM Friday and lasting until 7 PM Friday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

With regards to high temperatures today, the global models look to keep under representing the 00Z 850 mb temperatures. Yesterday's 18Z CAMs look to have a more representative view of how hot it can get this afternoon, compare to how we verified yesterday. Most likely, temperatures for many locations in the combined panhandles will soar past 100 degrees. The Palo Duro Canyon will also likely surpass 105, which led to another Heat Advisory being issued for this afternoon and evening. Surface winds will also be quiet strong this afternoon from the southwest. A Red Flag warning has already been issued for the entire CWA. For more details, see the FIRE WEATHER discussion.

Late this afternoon and into the evening, a slight chance for showers is present in the Oklahoma Panhandle and far northern Texas Panhandle. New 00Z data is showing more consistency of at least 20 dBZ reflectivity in our northern zones. QPF will likely remain light if any rain can make it to the ground. Of course, if any of these showers can become thunderstorms, dry lightning will become the primary threat. Chances for showers are not expected to linger much past 10 PM.

By the start of the evening, around 6-8 PM, short term models suggest the cold front will be arriving in the Oklahoma Panhandle. This strong front is expected to bring even stronger winds overnight compared to the speeds archived in the afternoon. At the time of this writing, a Wind Advisory is under deliberation and may be need for portions of the panhandles. Sustained winds may be near or above 35 mph for several hours starting early Friday morning. Gusts should reach as high as 50 mph, with a low chance for a few locations to reach 60 mph.

With overwhelming cold air advection, high temperatures will sharply drop in the wake of the front. High tomorrow should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. This may result in places experiencing a +40 degree difference in a 24 hour period. Surface winds should remain strong and northeasterly throughout the day and finally subside in the night time hours.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Model guidance continues to show high pressure shifting east in the long term period. By Monday of next week, the high pressure center should be over the southeast CONUS. H500 zonal flow will remain over our CWA until we can introduce additional troughs.

Warm air is expected to slowly resurge into the panhandles on Saturday, but temperatures should still be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. As high pressure exits, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten at the surface. Surface winds on Saturday should begin as light, but as they veer back to southwesterly flow, they'll increase again in the afternoon.

Sunday onward, warm air advection will help surface temperatures climb back into the 80s. Currently, a few locations may also reach the 90s, but model trends continues to favor 90 degree highs for greater portions of the region. These kinds of high temperatures should hold through Tuesday. Long range models are starting to converge on a cold front move across the panhandles by Wednesday. Moisture continues to shift eastward into western Oklahoma next week, which is causing more model ensemble members to remove QPF from our CWA. Late in the extended period the NBM is also reducing PoPs. We'll need to watch and see if these trends hold; because without quality moisture moving into the area, the hot and breezy weather conditions will only exasperate our fire weather concerns as we head into April.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

As of early this morning, winds at the surface have already begun picking up with reports of southwesterly gust around 20kt. Speeds are expected to pick up throughout the day but should remain below 35kt through the afternoon. However, the arrival of a cold front later tonight will likely see these northerly winds speeds to increase dramatically with highest likely to occur after midnight. Otherwise, the dry conditions should keep terminals VFR through the package.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue to worsen as we lead up to the afternoon hours today. The window for critical fire weather today may start as early as the late morning and linger through the night until the cold front arrives. Max RFTI values now are up to 5 for many areas today, as the forecast for temperatures are higher, wind speeds are higher, and dewpoints are lower. Widespread 100s, Min RH as low as 5%, and 20 kt surface winds will create near extreme conditions at times due to how dry our fuels are.

There is some marginal concern about the instability in play today. For much of the Texas Panhandle, there should be enough CIN to prevent potential pyrocumulus from forming. However, further north into the Oklahoma Panhandle, the atmosphere is expected to become uncapped by the late afternoon. This means that we cannot rule out pyrocumulus from wildfires in our northern zones. This paired with low-end chances for thunderstorms in those areas today could also mean that dry lightning can start fires if enough SBCAPE can be realized from the environment. Despite very low RH values at the surface today, upper level moisture may be enough to help support condensation and cumulus growth.

RH recovery will be quick behind the front as it moves in tonight. However, wind speeds will increase greatly as well. The strongest winds (+35 mph sustained) will likely occur between 3 AM and 10 AM Friday. Any ongoing fires will be difficult to put out despite the RH recovery. Fire spread will suddenly become southerly as the front moves through.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ001>003.