textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis from Monday through at least Saturday.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

- Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday across the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Heights aloft are rising as a ridge builds over the region. Temperatures are on their way to the 90s to low-100s this afternoon. Despite the lack of meaningful forcing today, showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Forecast soundings show a deep mixed layer across the Panhandles with a layer of mid-level moisture that should improve with time. This will result in DCAPE values around 1500-1700 J/kg, and with a mean storm motion between 20-25 mph. Low-level moisture will be more favorable in the southern/eastern/northeastern combined Panhandles which will result in MLCAPE values between 750-1250 J/kg, though if mixing is overly aggressively like the HRRR suggests, values between 250-750 J/kg look more likely. This environment could cause any thunderstorm to produce strong wind gusts up to 70 mph, and if the more aggressive CAPE solutions verify, hail up to the size of ping pong balls. If thunderstorms develop in the western Panhandles, they may be more on the dry side and would not rule out a lightning-ignited fire, especially early on. Thunderstorms will likely wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Several CAMs, as well as some mesoscale models, have an outflow boundary moving into the northern Panhandles late tonight from thunderstorms in Kansas. Will not rule out the possibility of thunderstorms along and behind this outflow boundary between 06z to 12z Tuesday.

Much like today, Tuesday will feature feeble forcing, so any thunderstorm that can develop will have to do so by natural rising motion (reaching convective temperature). There is likely to be dry air aloft that moves into the southeastern and central Panhandles Tuesday afternoon and evening which should limit thunderstorm development. However, the northwestern Panhandles may be more removed from the dry air entrainment and could have some forcing infringe upon the area, so cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms to move across the northwestern Panhandles Tuesday evening. There is a chance that thunderstorms continue through Tuesday night in the western Panhandles, but the more likely scenario is that they stay in eastern New Mexico where there is better forcing and moisture. Forcing and mid-level moisture should begin to improve as we approach sunrise on Wednesday. Some CAM solutions do bring thunderstorms in to the western Panhandles after Midnight but actually weaken activity toward sunrise, likely due to outflow from the New Mexico thunderstorms pushing into the western Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing but weakening across the Panhandles to start Wednesday, most likely in the western Panhandles. A few CAMs (e.g., HRRR, NAM 3km, and RRFS) suggest that a MCV could ultimately develop from the eastern New Mexico storms, and this MCV will track into the Panhandles during the day on Wednesday. There should be a period of time on Wednesday where we have dry weather, but cloud cover will remain. Forcing and impressive moisture advection is expected to move in Wednesday afternoon, and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. If a MCV does develop, it will certainly be a feature to be monitored. Not only will it be a focal point for thunderstorm development, but we could see training or repeated rounds of thunderstorms near the MCV. PWATs will be above the 90th percentile across the Panhandles, above the 97th percentile in the central Panhandles, and above the 99th percentile in the west. This corresponds to PWATs above 1", and up to 1.5" in the eastern Panhandles (locally higher possible). This will support heavy rainfall with thunderstorms to potentially torrential rainfall with stronger thunderstorms. Fortunately, storm motion will be around 20- 30 mph which will cut down on the residence time for any one thunderstorm over a singular location. However, flash flood concerns will increase if a location sees repeated rounds of thunderstorms or training thunderstorms. This concern is likely to be focused around the MCV. Given the potent low-level moisture in place, MLCAPE is expected to rise into the 2000-3000 range. Wind shear won't be strong; around 15-25 kts which will support multicell clusters. However, these conditions will still favor at least a low-end severe threat. Damaging winds and large hail are likely to be the primary hazards. Thunderstorms may continue into the evening and potentially into Wednesday night before weakening and/or moving out of the Panhandles.

Thursday, an upper-level trough will be closed/cut-off over Mexico as a shortwave is in the vicinity of the Panhandles. Cloudy conditions are favored for Thursday morning but clouds may begin to break down in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible later Thursday afternoon.

The trough is favored to stay in place for Friday with more thunderstorms possible as moisture remains in place for the Panhandles. Forecast confidence decreases from Friday and beyond. The trough may start to budge and move northeastward late Friday and into Saturday, which may enhance thunderstorm chances (favorable forcing) or decrease thunderstorm chances (dry air moves in behind the system).

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals this afternoon, with a slightly higher chance at Amarillo and Guymon, but overall confidence is too low for mentions at this time. Amendments may be needed if confidence increases. Cannot rule out some showers or thunderstorms later tonight at Guymon, but again, confidence is low. Low-level wind shear is expected at Guymon and possible at Dalhart tonight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.