textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon into evening in the eastern Panhandles.

- Daily shower/thunderstorm chances return on Monday and persist through the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A negatively tilted upper-level trough extending from NW Colorado to SW Texas is supporting the development of a surface low-pressure in eastern CO/western KS. A dryline extending from the surface low will orient itself from NNE to SSW across the eastern combined Panhandles this afternoon, with 60+ degree surface dewpoints on the eastern side. 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE favors a very unstable airmass, but lacking shear (25-35 kts 0-6 km bulk shear) and questionable forcing along the dryline will lead to an storm development being isolated across the eastern CWA. But, as daytime heating mixes out capping and winds on the eastern side of the dryline back (enhancing surface convergence) will be key elements to monitor for convective initiation during the afternoon hours today.

Increasing 500 millibar heights will inhibit cloud coverage and PoP chances on Sunday, while allowing for temperatures to increase. Max temperatures in the 100's cannot be ruled out Sunday and Monday in some places, however, low relative humidities will keep Heat Risk moderate at the highest. A weak front will shift winds from SW to N on Sunday morning, but winds will shift back out of the south by the end of the day Sunday.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Monday, PoP chances return to the Panhandles as the wind shift back to SSE on Sunday allows for moisture to return to the area. Current information suggests the best chance for low-level convergence to initiate precipitation is in the northern CWA. However, the instability and shear are displaced from the Panhandles, so intensity and storm mode are uncertain.

Persistent but weak upper-level ridging will allow for moisture to remain in the Panhandles through the long-term. Through the beginning of the long-term forecast period precipitation seems to persist, so although thunderstorms are possible each day, severity could be dampened by persistent cloud coverage. upper level ridging will likely keep shear to a minimum (possible enhanced flow on Wednesday), which will also dampen severe chances through the forecast period. However, toward the end of the forecast period, it points toward us returning to a pattern of daily thunderstorm chances with clouds clearing in the daytime hours. This could allow for severe chances to possibly increase toward the end of the week. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to fall slightly from this weekend beginning Tuesday. High temperatures will only bottom out in the high-70's to mid-80's on Wednesday, before beginning to trend upward again.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will be out of the SW today into tonight, reaching peak sustained speeds of 20-25 kts, gusting up to 30-35 kts. Around 07 Z on Sunday, winds will begin to shift from S to W to N, and approach VRB speeds (less than 6 kts) near the end of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.