textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- The ongoing heavy rainfall threat will continue into Wednesday, focused across the western and central Panhandles. A Flood Watch continues.

- A low chance of additional severe weather exists in the central Panhandles tonight and in the far eastern Panhandles Wednesday morning, with damaging wind being the main threat.

- Drier and cooler conditions arrive late Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the western and central Panhandles in response to the potent upper level storm system in the southwestern United States late this evening. Tropical moisture flowing into the area ahead of the upper system led to precipitable water values on the 30/00Z AMA sounding of 1.65 inches, which is near record levels for this time of year. The copious moisture is fueling the ongoing heavy rain threat that will continue across this same area through at least early Wednesday morning. A gradual north and eastward shift in the heavier rain should occur with time, as the upper system makes a closer approach and the dry slot moves into the region from the southwest. A low chance of strong to severe storms with mainly a damaging wind threat will exist Wednesday morning before things shift east, in association with a continued strong low level jet and surge in instability. The potential for brief spin-ups will continue, although that overall threat is very low. Given the track of the system as it moves across the region Wednesday into Thursday and associated wraparound moisture, rain chances and some thunder potential will linger across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle, although additional amounts are expected to be light. A cold front will move into the region on the backside of the upper system Thursday, bringing cooler conditions and breezy northerly winds.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Cooler temperatures and northerly winds will extend into Friday, with drier conditions also likely to arrive areawide on Friday. Upper level high pressure forecast to be in the western United States by the weekend looks to nose toward the Panhandles, moderating temperatures somewhat and keeping dry conditions in place. While temperatures look to be warmer compared to Thursday and Friday, they should still be a few degrees below normal until possibly the early to middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Flight category reductions should be expected into the daylight hours Wednesday at all 3 terminals due to widespread rainfall and extensive low cloud cover. Both IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible before daybreak. Although the chance of thunderstorms is nonzero at all 3 sites, the best chance will be at AMA. Winds will shift to the southwest late morning into early afternoon and increase in speed/gustiness as the dry slot moves northeast. This will also lead to improvement in the ceilings and a decrease in the potential for further showers/storms. Winds will shift a second time to a northerly direction at DHT and GUY as a cold front begins to move in Wednesday evening. The northerly wind shift at AMA should hold off until after the end of the valid TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ001>003-006>008- 011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OKZ001-002.