textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected to hold on clear into next week with the Panhandles expecting multiple days of near or above triple digit temperatures.

- The accumulating effect of seeming multiple days of triple digits temperatures combine with little to no overnight relief may see increased chances for heat related illnesses.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain possible Thursday and Friday with concerns focused on winds and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Present model agreement continues to see a strong ridge and upper- level high pressure system hold across most of the Central and Western United States, which will leave the Panhandles in a very stagnate upper-level pattern for most of this week. As it stands present expectation is to see temperatures to keep warming today with potential to see multiple locations hitting the triple digits once again. In our more terrain based locations, such as the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, we can see the terrain features have an amplifying effect on the temperatures resulting these locations easily 3 to 5 degrees warmer than expected. This terrain based heating effect has also prompted high concerns for heat related illness for those either visiting or living in those areas, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for this afternoon. One thing that will need to be watched however, is the still lingering moisture that has been held in our mid to low- levels of the atmosphere. While this moisture has been on the lower end amount wise, it could still be enough to generate an isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, especially in the north and east where it slightly more abundant.

Moving into Thursday, does have multiple models start to see the present upper-level high start to shift more south, which is likely to see the heat continue be a problem for the day. However, present trends have also continue to see the high retreat slightly west during this period. This westward retreat could provide the Panhandles with opportunities to see some storms as most models see a weak disturbance alongside a pocket of moisture push in from our north Thursday afternoon. Current CAMs runs have continue to support seeing some isolated to scatter showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Panhandles Thursday. Although, both CAPE values and wind shear have been lacking just enough to keep severe weather concerns low. Still, the present set up cant be completely overlooked as it generally favors the potential for some rouge severe wind gusts. Added to this will be some decent PWAT values that could range from 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which is more than enough for even a weak shower to produce heavy rainfall and localized minor flooding. Regardless, heat is still going to take precedence for the day as many locations could be reaching triple heat for the third consecutive day, with areas in the south starting to get close to the 110 degree mark.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Friday continues to be interesting weather day for the Panhandles as many of the models have seen the present upper-level high pressure system retreat westward and force a boundary and moisture into the area the prior day. This particular boundary is the focal point of interest as quite a few models have placed it stalling in the Southern Texas Panhandles for Friday afternoon. This stalled boundary could aid in a new round of showers and thunderstorms for the area, especially if we get a little extra moisture push from what remain of Tropical Storm Bertha. Still there is quite a bit uncertainty on where this boundary will actually stall, so these chances have only been around a 15 to 30 percent. Of course these chances could also see temperature fluctuate over the next 24 to 48 hours, though present models still seem to favor most of the area reaching the triple digit mark yet again.

Moving into the weekend and next week, heat continues to be the big talking point as model agreement does not see the the upper- level high pressure staying over the Central and Western Untied States laying off anytime soon. With this high-pressure in place, the Panhandles will hold onto a more stagnate and dry upper-level pattern that will aid in forcing temperatures near or over the triple digit mark. Obviously such hot temperatures over multiple consecutive days brings increasing confidence of some form of heat related products being needed across the Panhandles. However, what may not be as obvious is that low temperatures are not fairing much better with present expectations seeing locations, such as Amarillo, have the potential to either break or tie their record warm low temperature clear through Sunday. Expectations like these would also mean that there is very little relief occurring during overnight hours which may only amplify the risk of seeing heat related illness as each day passes.

In short, the closing days of this week and possibly next week may see a much higher risk for heat related illness not just from very hot afternoon temperatures, but from the accumulating effect of seeing these hot temperatures for multiple day on top of getting very little relief from the heat overnight.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Dry and relatively clear conditions are expected to continue through the overnight, though some terminals may still gust to around 20 kt at the surface. For this coming afternoon, the potential is still there to see a weak isolated shower or thunderstorms form clear into the evening timeframe. However, these chances remain 10 percent or less at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to hold through the present package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ007-008-317.

OK...None.