textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon/evening across the southern Texas Panhandle.

- A strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible Sunday afternoon, and localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery show a ridge of high pressure centered over the Southwestern CONUS this morning with generally weak flow over the Panhandles.

A lobe of mid-level vorticity is present across the central and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle/SW Kansas as of mid-morning and moving eastward. Weather models are not handling this feature well, with the NAM and GFS having it too far south and progressing in the wrong direction (southward). Subsidence is expected behind this feature across the northeastern combined Panhandles through much of the day, but the subsidence may wane by later in the afternoon as the vorticity continues to move away. Will be on the lookout for thunderstorms to start around the mid-afternoon hours, but there will otherwise be little to no forcing mechanisms across the Panhandles, suggesting that any thunderstorm potential will have to come from localized sources or reaching convective temperatures. If thunderstorms can manage to develop, then won't entirely be able to rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm. However, forecast soundings show weak CAPE (< 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) with weak shear (< 20 kts effective shear). That said, forecasting sounds show an inverted- V profile below a relatively moisture mid-level profile, suggesting the potential for strong downdrafts. Won't be able to rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph. However, the most likely scenario is that no thunderstorms develop today. However, elevated showers or thunderstorms will be possible overnight as weak mid-level forcing may move into the southern Texas Panhandle amid an uncapped environment of elevated instability (500-1000 J/kg). Not expecting these storms to produce much more than heavy rain and perhaps small hail if the elevated instability overperforms.

Tomorrow, the upper-level ridge will shift northeast into the Intermountain West region which will cause upper-level winds to turn more northeasterly to easterly. Surface winds will be out of the southeast to east, allowing for low- to mid-level moisture advection throughout the day. Temperatures will warm into the 90s across the Panhandles by mid-afternoon, at which point some weak forcing could work into the southern Texas Panhandle. This could be enough to spark thunderstorms primarily across the southern Texas Panhandle, with higher confidence in the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Forecast soundings show tall/skinny instability with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg with weak wind shear (locally as much as 20 kts). DCAPE values are expected to be around 1300-1600 J/kg which should be enough to support wind gusts up to 60 mph with the strongest storms.

Another aspect that will need to be monitored is a localized flash flood threat. Freezing levels should be quite high tomorrow with PWATs around 1.2" to 1.4", which is around the 90th percentile. This will lead to thunderstorms being very efficient rain producers, and with weak storm motion (10 kts or less), there will be potential for rain rates to be as much as 3"/hour as shown by a few CAM runs. This could lead to localized flash flooding, especially if it occurs over flood-prone locations (e.g., Hereford, Amarillo, Canyon, Palo Duro Canyon). Thunderstorms should wane after sunset.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

An interesting large-scale weather pattern is expected to set up through much of next week: as an upper-level ridge moves northeast into the northern Plains, a trough digs into the Northeastern US from Canada. A cut-off low is favored to develop from the Northeastern US trough, ande that cut-off low retrogrades westward across the Southern US. The track of the cut-off low will be an important factor for determining where the best mid-level forcing will set up. Currently, the NBM keeps the best rain chances more in west-central Texas, but any shift in the track of the cut-off low, which models typically struggle to handle (especially before it develops) could shift the axis of best rain chances. Will also have to keep an eye on the potential for mid-level dry air that may try to work into the eastern/central Panhandles from Monday through Wednesday. This would be detrimental for rain chances in that area.

Otherwise, expecting seasonable if not slightly cooler than normal temperatures throughout the work week; it should be a nice break from the heat!

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be around 10 kts or less throughout this period, and light and variable tonight into Sunday morning. Can't rule out a few thunderstorms tonight for Amarillo, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAF.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.