textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon and Thursday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting tonight in the northwest, with activity possible clear into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the combined Panhandles with temperatures reaching the upper 90s to 100-105. Mid level moisture continues to be present with cumulus clouds likely to form in the afternoon heat. Scattered high based clouds may continue to help provide relief for PDC and the Canadian River Valley from reaching full heating potential and is the one of the main reasons a heat advisory is likely not needed today or tomorrow afternoon. Breezy southwest winds associated with a surface trough will also help mix some of the heat from the canyon walls out of the park.

With the mid level moisture, will be on the watch for some disturbances in the flow aloft to spark thunderstorms both this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow afternoon/evening. The northwest has the best chances to see storm activity move in from off the higher terrain to the west. Looking at having quasi northwest flow over the next day or two with the best chance for PoPs in the northwest to northern combined Panhandles. PoPs tonight are currently sitting at around 20 to 30 percent. Going into tomorrow, PoPs spread over much more of the area with the northern half of the combined Panhandles seeing 50 to 60 PoPs tomorrow night. This will be thanks to a much larger shortwave expected to move across the Central to Southern Great Plains.

For today a modest 500 to maybe 1200 J/Kg of MUCAPE will be possible with little to no shear to work with. The main threat for potentially severe storms will be the high based LCLs and DCAPE values leading to a downburst potential. Strong lapse rates may lead to quick storm growth and with vertically stacked storms quick downbursts. Tomorrow, shear may increase some to around 25 kts with a slight increase in the severe potential. However, with such warm mid to upper levels, hail growth difficult to achieve. Gusty summer time thunderstorms likely to be the threat still just with longer lasting storms that could scattered across more of the Panhandles under better upper level support. CAPE values are progged to increase especially across the northern Panhandles, potentially upwards of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg MU.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Staying under the eastern periphery of a mid to upper level ridge, the combined Panhandles are expected to continue to see highs in the mid 90s to lower triple digits through the extended period. Mid to upper level disturbances are expected to continue to help with storm chances through the weekend as well. With PoPs increasing to upwards of 65 percent Friday night. Lowering back to 20s and maybe 30s Saturday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Southerly winds may be a bit breezy with some gust up to 25 to 30 kts. Also, before those winds pick up KDHT and KGUY may experience some LLWS between 10Z and 16Z this morning.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.