textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Dry conditions hold through Friday with afternoon highs in the 60s to 70s.

- A weather system will move in this weekend with high chances of showers and weak thunderstorms. Most rain will be light to moderate, but locally heavy rain will be possible.

- More active weather is expected to follow next week that will increase chances of showers and breezy conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1220 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Pleasant and peaceful weather conditions will persist across the Panhandles today and tomorrow. High pressure currently draped over the Rockies to our west will translate eastward, maintaining dry air, light winds, and seasonal temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. As our next weather system approaches this weekend, south-southeast winds will gradually increase late Friday, drawing better surface and mid-level moisture to the area. Cloud cover will spread as well, with very low chances for some weak showers to develop across the western Panhandles Friday night into early Saturday morning (10-20% POPs).

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Entering the weekend, the main weather story is that rain is very likely across a majority of the forecast area, but rain amounts won't be too impressive for most locations. It is also looking like temperatures will be even cooler than anticipated thanks to showers and dense cloud cover, keeping high temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s throughout the weekend. Cooler and cloudy conditions persist early next week as our upper level pattern calms down, but consistently breezy south winds should stick around as well. Our next active stretch of weather is favored to arrive mid-late next week, as models have been fairly consistent predicting a stronger system for the region that would provide additional rain opportunities.

A lead shortwave will pass just south of the Panhandles ahead of a trailing closed low pressure system early Saturday, spurring on breezier south winds which should advect better moisture northward. Weak forcing form the lead shortwave should then begin producing light showers across the western and central Panhandles early Saturday morning-afternoon (30-60% POPs). The far more promising chance for rain should then arrive with the main low pressure system models show approaching from our northwest late Saturday into Sunday. Rain chances have further amplified during the Saturday night into Sunday time frame, now greater than 70% across much of the Panhandles. By Sunday afternoon-evening, the system will begin to exit the region, with a dry slot filtering in and a weak cold front sagging southward. Most if not all rain should be over by Sunday night, although any lingering wrap around moisture could generate a few more weak showers (20-30% POPs).

As previously alluded to, any rain earlier Saturday would likely be on the lighter side, as limited forcing and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" are good but not great (especially with little to no CAPE). Through the bulk of the event, rounds of light to moderate rain showers are expected across the area. Locally heavier pockets of rain could be achieved over the east and possibly even central Panhandles where PWATs will be closer to 1", leading to 40-70% chances for rainfall to exceed 0.5". Occasional weak instability may allow some anemic thunderstorms to mix in as the core of the low passes overhead, but rain rates still don't look overly impressive at any point. The way things are trending, most of the CWA would receive only a quarter to half inch of rain or less, with biggest winners getting 0.5-1.0".

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable, eventually settling out of the south towards the end of the period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.