textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Periods of heavy to very heavy rain is expected this afternoon through tomorrow morning. There is a moderate risk for flash flooding across the western and central combined Panhandles where a Flood Watch has been issued.

- There is a low chance for severe weather this afternoon through Wednesday morning across portions of the panhandle. This includes damaging wind gusts and brief/weak tornadoes.

- Drier and cooler Thursday into Friday with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s. North winds may become gusty behind a cold front Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

We are at the beginning of about a 24 hour period of potentially impactful weather, mainly due to excessive rain but also including a low chance of few brief/weak tropical tornadoes this afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the western and central combined Panhandles through tomorrow afternoon. The main drivers for the active weather include an upper level trough currently centered over the southern tip of NV combined with remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo as it gets caught up in the broad southwest flow aloft. The latest information from the National Hurricane Center suggest Polo is still a hurricane as it moves across the Gulf of California, and the main remnants should be moving over the Panhandle area tonight into tomorrow morning. This will promote high moisture levels, with an extended period with near daily max PWATs (1.4" - 1.6"+) as indicated in the latest ensemble output.

The increased moisture will combined with instability and lift from the upper level system to produce widespread rainfall now through tonight, before ending from southwest to northeast through tomorrow morning. Most likely rainfall (50th percentile) for the event ranges from around 0.5" in the far east to 3.0" in the west. High resolution models from both the HREF and REFS ensembles along with medium and long range ensembles suggest there will be at least one band of much heavier rainfall (10 percent chance of exceeding 6", but ensemble max values over 10"), with the most favored position being from near Hereford to Dumas. The position could easily shift slightly southeast (more favoring Amarillo) or northwest (more favoring Dalhart). Areas that end up under the band of very heavy rain will likely see significant runoff and flash flooding, especially over urban and low lying areas. The best timing for this threat will be between about 22z and 06z this afternoon into tonight.

Another concern is the severe aspect of this system. Tropical systems typically support strongly veering wind profiles in the lowest 0-1km range, and model hodographs certainly support that this afternoon through tonight. The main question for getting spin-ups is the lack of low level CAPE due to sluggish almost moist-adiabatic lapse rates near the surface. Very skinny CAPE profiles approach ~1200 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon with ground scraping LCLs, and there may be brief periods where destabilization is sufficient for weak/brief tornadoes. Some of the stronger cells could also produce locally damaging winds near 60mph due to wet microbursts. Activity should quickly come to an end tomorrow morning as the dry sector moves across the area.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Lingering moisture on the backside of the system will interact with a cold front with a low to medium chance for rain mainly across the northern half of the combined Panhandle Thursday then more of the area Thursday night. Impacts should be minimal. However, gusty north winds behind the cold front are expected, with strongest gusts perhaps near 40 to 50 mph in the northwest zones. This will be the first decent cold front of the year, with highs only in the 60s by Friday, and lows potentially dipping into the 40s and low 50s Thursday night through Sunday night.

Ward

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

All terminals will be bouncing around between VFR and IFR between now and this evening as showers and storms continue to move across the area. General coverage and intensity of storms will increase through this evening, with impacts expected at all TAF sites. MVFR/IFR conditions will become more common tonight as ceilings drop and visibility drops due to periods of moderate to heavy rain. Conditions will gradually improve mainly between 12z and 18z Wednesday. Winds will be southwesterly at 10 to 20 mph, reducing and becoming more southeasterly tonight.

Ward

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The latest information from the National Hurricane Center suggest Polo is still a hurricane as it moves across the Gulf of California, and the main remnants should be moving over the Panhandle area tonight into tomorrow morning. This will promote high moisture levels, with an extended period with near daily max PWATs (1.4" - 1.6"+) as indicated in the latest ensemble output. The increased moisture will combined with instability and lift from the upper level system to produce widespread rainfall now through tonight, before ending from southwest to northeast through tomorrow morning. Most likely rainfall (50th percentile) for the event ranges from around 0.5" in the far east to 3.0" in the west. High resolution models from both the HREF and REFS ensembles along with medium and long range ensembles suggest there will be at least one band of much heavier rainfall due to training storms (10 percent chance of exceeding 6", but ensemble max values over 10"), with the most favored position being from near Hereford to Dumas. The position could easily shift slightly southeast (more favoring Amarillo) or northwest (more favoring Dalhart). Areas that end up under the band of very heavy to torrential rain will likely see significant runoff and flash flooding, especially over urban and low lying areas. The best timing for this threat will be between about 22z and 06z this afternoon into tonight.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ001>003-006>008- 011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OKZ001-002.