textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- More chances at active weather are expected this evening into the overnight with potential to see strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Hotter and drier conditions are expected this weekend, which can lead to elevated fire weather concerns for a majority of the Panhandles.

- Chances of storms are expected to return for the Western Panhandles next week with these chances increasing and spreading towards the end of it.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The MCV that started our activity overnight and early this morning seems to have left a pocket of subsidence over the Panhandles, which has seen any new starts across our east fail during this early afternoon. However, just to our east multiple storms are continuing to develop and push across Western and Central Oklahoma. These storms may be key in our attempts at new activity across our southeast and south-central later today as their outflow boundaries may provide just enough lift to get past the subsidence. Presently majority of the CAMs do not favor such an outcome, with the lone exception being the NAM3km. However, present runs of the NAM3km, while a bit overzealous, have had a better handle on the overnight and present ongoing activity then most of the other model runs. Given this have decided to keep some low 20 to 30 percent chances of storms present across the eastern and central Panhandles for this afternoon into tonight. Otherwise, the more likely scenario is still focused on the Western Texas Panhandle late this evening into the overnight where we can see storms once again move off the Southern Front Range and into that area.

Now in terms of possible impacts from these storms, present CAMS do present around 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with along side pockets of 20 to 30 kt of effective bulk wind shear. These values, if they can be reached, could allow for strong to severe storms to develop and even organize long enough of to produce hail up to an inch and localized heavy rainfall. However, the present DCAPE values and expected mean winds suggest that damaging winds gust will be the more likely threat. Presently most CAMs are seeing DCAPE values average around 1800 J/kg with mean winds upwards of 15 kts. This combinations can easily see a storm, strong or not, produce an outflow gust capable of reaching 75 mph. As for Saturday, present model agreement still sees good southerly to southwesterly flow pushing in at the 850mb level. This flow will look to amplify our heat and overall dry conditions for the day resulting in most of the Panhandles reaching the triple-digit mark. Unfortunately, this flow will also see some breezier winds down at the surface, which will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across the Panhandles for the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For the start of this extended period, model agreement see the upper-level high pressure system stay situated across the Western United States. For the Panhandles, the positioning of the high puts us in a sort of mixed bag situation where we stay hot and relatively dry, but have enough a mean wind to give storms the ability to move in from mountains of Eastern New Mexico. The exception for this pattern will be seen this Sunday, however, as low-level southerly flow looks to bring in drier air result in hotter and drier conditions being more prominent for the day. This flow will also lead to breezier conditions at the surface, which can then lead to some elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon period. However moving into next week, does see the chances of storms return once again across the Western Panhandles thanks to flow at the mid-level returning to a more westerly direction. These chances do look to further grow and spread towards the end of next week, with many models actually seeing the high start to weaken and become disorganized across the Southern Untied States. Either way, look for temperatures to keep hot with 90s to triple-digits likely every day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

At this time, latest satellite is seeing the subsidence brought in from last night's activity win across the Panhandles, with only some scatter cloud decks present across the area. However, the potential is still there to see thunderstorms push off the Southern Front range and move across the Western Panhandles later this evening into the overnight. While the ingredients are there for these storms to produce severe type impacts, present CAMs do not have a lot of confidence in them actually reaching terminals. Given this have only made mention of storms at KDHT for the current TAF package, with the rest of the terminals holding at VFR conditions.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ317.

OK...None.