textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1118 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- One more day of above warm afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s is expected today.

- Cooler temperatures and potentially heavy moisture is expected this weekend. Monitoring for a potential flood threat as well.(At least a 15% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point)

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Expect another day of afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s today as the Panhandles sit under an upper level ridge. The upper level ridge is expected to shift east bringing cross barrier flow from an approaching trough, which will aid in the surface gradient tightening back up. Surface winds in turn will pick back up to the breezy 15 to 20 mph range with slightly higher gusts. Going into tomorrow, southwest flow aloft increases as the ridge continues to shift east. Despite the western periphery of the ridge holding on, afternoon highs are expected to be few degrees cooler, especially as upper level clouds increase amongst the southwest flow aloft. The increased moisture will also introduce PoPs to the far western combined Panhandles, mainly along the NM/TX stateline going into Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

GOES water vapor imagery currently shows a bowling ball low off the coast of CA. Moisture in the leading edge of the associated trough can be seen traveling up into the Four Corners Region. Also, on radar scattered thunderstorms can be see seen over parts of AZ into NM. This moisture and the leading of the trough is expected to creep into the far western Panhandles Friday night with shower and thunderstorm activity holding short in NM. PoPs remain in the western combined Panhandles mainly near the state line through much of Saturday before expanding across the entirety of the combined Panhandles Sat night into Sun. The NBM does give PoPs as high as 90 across the central to western parts of Panhandles during the day on Sun. With PWATs near 1" for this time of year, and the expected speed of the system, there is a potential for multiple rounds of efficient rain producers Sat into Mon. By the end of Sun night NBM probs do give widespread 40% plus for 1" of rain across the combined Panhandles. Both the LREF and NBM percentiles are pinging an area around Dallam and Hartley County for the highest storm total rain. The 90th percentile is right around 4" of rain for this area.

All the expected rain activity going into Sun should drop afternoon highs even more into the 60s for most of the Panhandles for Sun afternoon. Depending on the speed of the system the far eastern parts of the combined Panhandles may make it to the lower 70s still. PoPs do linger into Monday with the eastern counties in the FA hanging on to a 60% chance for rain. Monday night, is when PoPs begin to really fall off. A frontal boundary is progged to shift winds to the north late Mon into Mon night. A bit of CAA will help reinforce some cooler air leading to widespread 60 degree temps in the afternoon. Potentially some upper 50s in the northwestern Panhandles. Lower 60s daytime highs expected to last into Tue with temperatures rebounding to the upper 60s for Wed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Present satellite this morning continues to see cloud cover move across the the Panhandles. However, most terminals are reporting that these cloud decks are either scattered or high enough to keep VFR conditions. These cloud decks are expected to hold for most of the morning and afternoon with some terminals turning to a broken with VFR CIGs later this evening. Otherwise, look for winds to be breezy this afternoon with southerly surface winds gusting upwards of 25 knots.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.