textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Low (20-30%) chances for thunderstorms across the western and central Panhandles today.

- Increasing chances for thunderstorms Tuesday, encompassing strong wind gusts and flooding as the primary hazards.

- Daily thunderstorm chances Wed. and Thurs., and possible pattern shift next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Southwesterly upper-level flow is resulting in a lee-side surface low, with a trough extending south into New Mexico. This surface trough, along with flow across the higher terrain in eastern NM, will initiate thunderstorms this afternoon and tighten pressure gradients across the Panhandles. This will lead to sustained winds of 20-25 kts, with gusts up to 30-40 kts through the afternoon. Storm motions will be to the northeast around 20 kts, likely arriving in the northwestern combined Panhandles during the late afternoon hours. Low- and mid-level lapse rates will help sustain convection as it moves off the elevated terrain, but CAPE remains marginal with a max of 500-750 J/kg in the northwest. Lacking upper-level support means shear is very low, allowing for storms to merge into clusters as they approach. DCAPE is expected to remain marginal, along with only 20 kt storm motions will keep severe wind chances marginal.

On Tuesday, the current surface low pressure will move ESE and weaken, and a new surface low pressure center will redevelop in eastern NM. A cold front extending from a large low pressure in the northern US and attaching the two weak low-pressure centers will push southeasterly through the Panhandles by the late afternoon (oriented SW to NE). The most likely concern for severe weather on Tuesday will be in the NE combined Panhandles where bulk effective shear is as much as 30-40 kts and MLCAPE values reach up to 1100+ J/kg. This could allow for northeasterly moving discrete cells to develop before growing upscale into a linear cluster across the Panhandles. PWAT values of 1.5"+, moderate storm motions of 15-20 kts and a boundary orientation that will allow for training motion will likely lead to flooding concerns along the initiating boundary. The highest concern for flooding will heavily depend on where the cold front convergence initiates precipitation, however, confidence in a flooding scenario where that happens is increasing. Later tomorrow night, elevated thunderstorms off of higher elevation in NM will travel into the NW combined Panhandles into an environment with ~35 kts of bulk shear. This could lead to a further wind threat (as current CAPE values are not conducive of a large hail threat) into the night while flooding remains a concern along the boundary.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Daily thunderstorm chances remain on Wednesday and Thursday due to upper-level SSW flow over elevated terrain in the southwestern US and shortwave perturbations around the high pressure center in the SE US. These shower and thunderstorm chances will be focused across the western Panhandles, as the further off of the higher terrain they move the less favorable of an environment they will enter. As we head into next weekend, an upper-level low propagates across the central US, squeezing and attempting to push out the pesky ridge in the SE US. This could be the large weather pattern shift needed to finally dampen high temperatures in the Panhandles. This would also place the Panhandles in upper-level southwesterly flow through the weekend, which would promote an increase in precipitation chances as well.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout all TAF sites for the 18Z TAF period. There is a low chance for a potential TS for KDHT as we approach 00Z, but confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10-20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.