textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across the combined Panhandles on Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Texas Panhandle from 10 AM to 9 PM Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible from Monday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon in the eastern and central Panhandles with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A cut-off trough is spinning just west of the Baja California peninsula tonight with a quasi-zonal flow across the northern US. A surface low will track from southeastern Colorado into western Kansas tonight which will help keep the winds across the Panhandles slightly on the breezy side. Very dry air will continue to get brought into the Panhandles overnight; expecting RH values to only reach into the 30-40% range with some areas not even reaching to 30%.

A new surface low will develop in northeastern New Mexico on Monday and we will see winds strengthen once again. The surface pressure gradient won't be too impressive across the northern combined Panhandles, but it will become breezy across the Texas Panhandle. Expecting sustained winds between 20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, particularly in the western and central combined Panhandles. This will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the Texas Panhandle, with critical mostly being confined to the west and central. Also currently forecasting some record tying or breaking temperatures at Amarillo (forecast 83 degrees, record is 83 degrees) and Borger (forecast 86 degrees, record is 83 degrees). There is even a 40-75% chance for temperatures to reach or exceed 90 degrees in the southeastern Texas Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon.

Clouds will begin to increase Monday evening as the upper-level trough will begin to move toward the Panhandles. There is a decent surge of 700mb positive theta-e advection late Monday night, and with some forcing moving in at around the same time, a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms may work in from the south Tuesday morning. This activity should progress quickly across the area, and we will see the sun break out in the mid to late morning hours. A surface low will develop in northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado leading to some potentially breezy winds throughout Tuesday.

Some models, such as the NAM products, operational ECMWF and some of its ensembles, and some GFS ensembles, keep 50-60 degree dew points into Tuesday afternoon in the eastern combined Panhandles and a bit less in the central combined Panhandles. Should this indeed happen, steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5 C/km to 8 C/km will assist in creating around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. As one should expect for the cool season, shear will not be lacking; effective shear values between 40-50 kts with enough directional shear for rotating updrafts. Therefore, there is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms if low-level moisture is able to stick around in the central and eastern Panhandles. Owing to the steep lapse rates, favorable shear, dry air aloft, and relatively weak low-level winds, large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards. If the above scenario pans out, would not be surprised if a supercell would be able to produce a hailstone around 2 inches or greater.

With all that said, this is again dependent upon sufficient moisture remaining in the area, and of course, storms developing at all. Although there should be at least some lift provided by positive vorticity advection, some models hint at the potential for 700mb negative theta-e advection which may suppress development via dry air entrainment. Thus, still some uncertainties to be sorted out.

Any rain and thunderstorms that do occur will move out of the area through Tuesday night. A cold front will begin to move into the Panhandles late Tuesday night.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

The upper-level trough will be moving off to the east to begin Wednesday as a cold front is pushing south through the Panhandles. Operational and ensemble models are strongly suggesting that breezy to windy conditions will follow behind the front. Sustained winds between 25 to 35 mph will be possible with gusts up to 45 mph. There is a 20-40% chance for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph across the area. Winds will begin to slowly weaken Wednesday afternoon, though still remaining breezy through the daylight hours. Expecting highs in the upper-50s to upper-60s.

As a surface high shifts off to the east, surface winds will turn southwesterly across the Panhandles as a surface low develops off to our northwest. Warm and breezy conditions return for Thursday with highs warming into the mid-70s to around 80 degrees.

Upper-level ridging builds from the Southwestern US into the south- central US from Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm into 80s for Friday and Saturday, then maybe some 70s will work into the north on Sunday. Chances for rain look very meager in this long-term period.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the west and southwest at 15-25 kts for KDHT/KAMA and 10-20 kts for KGUY with few to sct high clouds.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>019-317.

OK...None.