textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Dense fog will be possible across the southeastern Texas Panhandle tonight, and again across the southern Texas Panhandle Wednesday night.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night into Friday night. There is a low chance for flooding or flash flooding.

- Rain and thunderstorms return Sunday into Monday. Breezy to windy conditions will also be possible.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Clouds will clear out from west to east throughout today as winds turn southwesterly and become slightly breezy as a low pressure system develops in south/southeastern Colorado. Expect winds to remain breezy through the night for much of the Panhandles as the surface pressure gradient remains fairly steep. Despite abundant ground moisture from recent rainfall, the winds should prevent widespread fog from developing with the exception of the southeastern Texas Panhandle where winds are favored to remain less than 10 mph. Will have to monitor that area for a potential Dense Fog Advisory again tonight.

Wednesday will be slightly breezier across the Panhandles compared to today as another lee surface low develops underneath a slightly stronger upper-level jet. Temperatures will warm into the mid-70s to low-80s across the Panhandles with more dry weather anticipated. Winds will weaken Wednesday night as the surface low weakens and moves slowly eastward. There is a relatively solid signal for dense fog (30-60% chance for a quarter mile or less visibility) across at least the southeastern Texas Panhandle Wednesday night, and we could see that signal expand further across the southern Texas Panhandle.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Two distinct jet streams are expected to be present across the CONUS on Thursday; a subtropical jetstream extending from the Pacific to the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and into the Gulf Coast of the CONUS. Meanwhile, the polar jet stream will be present across the Northern CONUS with a trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest.

Most, if not all, of Thursday will be pleasant with temperatures in the 70s to low-80s. Expect clouds to begin to move in from the south as a trough embedded in the subtropical jetstream draws rich moisture from (what is expected to be by that time per the NHC) Tropical Depression Vance into Texas. Rain chances will rise throughout Thursday night as the trough tracks into southwest Texas on a northeasterly trajectory.

The bulk of the forcing, thus the greatest rain chances, will be late Friday morning but expect rain to continue through the day before gradually coming to an end from southwest to northeast Friday night. PWATs are expected to be around 1" to 1.50" across the majority of the combined Panhandles which is above the 95th percentile for late October and approaching climatological max values. This abundant moisture will favor light to moderate rainfall with heavier showers and heavy rainfall with thunderstorms. A main limiting factor for the potential for flash flooding is that most model guidance shows very weak instability (100-300 J/kg), decreasing the chances for the widespread and persistent thunderstorms which produce the higher-end rain rates. Nonetheless, there will still be a very low chance for flooding/flash flooding given the significant rainfall that we have observed over the past 30-40 days.

The latest available LREF (27/00z) at the time of writing has a 60- 90% chance for rain amounts to exceed 0.50" across the southeastern half of the combined Panhandles, and a 30-60% chance to exceed 1" for the same area. Beware: a number of factors are still very much in play which includes the track and strength of the trough. If it speeds up (remains more of an open wave), we will likely see the rain amounts decrease. If it tracks more to the east, we can expect the higher rain amounts to move with it. The more likely scenario between the two at this time appears to be that the trough could speed up and lessen rain amounts, but that's a roughly 30% chance right now.

Dry conditions will return for Saturday and early Sunday before yet another weather system may work in from the Pacific Northwest and re- introduces rain chances. Early indications are that this has the potential to be quite a dynamic weather system with strong winds.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions are currently anticipated through the next 24 hours. However, there is a low chance for fog to develop tonight in and around Amarillo. Will not reduce visibility below 6sm at this time due to low confidence, but be aware that it may be warranted later.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.