textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Very hot to dangerously hot temperatures are expected this afternoon and these temperatures may lead to heat related illnesses, especially in Palo Duro Canyon State Park.

- Daily thunderstorm chances throughout the next several days, where more robust storms may have strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A hot afternoon across the combined Panhandles where a few locations already approaching or at 100 degrees as of the latest 18Z obs. Southwest winds will eventually drop Td values into the 30s/40s for areas on the Caprock. On the contrary, for areas off the Caprock, Td values will remain in the 50s/60s as the dryline stalls in this vicinity. Latest satellite analysis shows a subtly wave in the zonal H500 pattern, which could help to generate a storm or two, if we can overcome the mid level drier airmass, we could see a storm or two develop (about a 10-20% chance). If a storm can develop in the aforementioned area east of the dryline, it will be in an high CAPE moderate shear environment, with a supercell storm mode possible. Overall rain chances should quickly diminish further into the evening hours. By Thursday, a cold front should quickly traverse the Panhandles from north to south. Some of the latest hi-res model data has the front moving faster than others, but the trends are the front moving south of all of the Panhandles by 21-23Z. This will shift rain and thunderstorm chances further south as well, along and ahead of the front. Depending on the exact track of the front, we still have around a 20-30% chance of a shower or storm for the SE Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, after temperatures this afternoon mainly in the 100-110 range, high temperatures behind the front will cool off a bit with values ranging from the lower 80s in the NW Panhandles to upper 90s in the SE Texas Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A slowly building, but more elongated area of an H500 high pressure system will take shape over the southern High Plains. This will result in a rebound of temperatures back to above average for this time period, with a limited chance of some rain in the ridge roller pattern, favoring the northern Panhandles. A more substantial front by Sunday into early next work may bring more widespread rain chances to the Panhandles. PWAT values in forecast soundings in the 99th percentile, coupled with very anemic low level winds may result in heavy rainfall rates from stratiform and convective modes of rainfall for Sunday and Monday, where flooding concerns may develop. High temperatures Sunday through the end of the forecast period should be below average for mid June.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 0Z TAF period. Winds will remain out of the SW, with calmer winds in the northern TX and OK Panhandles, with slightly breezier winds further south at AMA. Winds will shift out of the N with a frontal passage starting at GUY around 12Z, then further south to DHT and AMA through the rest of Thursday morning. Can expect gusty conditions with this front through the end of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-007>010- 012>015-017>020.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.