textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the morning hours of Monday, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles for large hail and damaging winds.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week, varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight hours.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Latest 18Z satellite obs shows a subtle perturbation in the mean H500 flow westerly flow moving southeasterly through NM towards the NW Panhandles. Closer to the surface, the first surface cold front have moved south through the Caprock counties of the TX Panhandle, with a weak sfc low developing in the NE TX Panhandle. With south/southeast surface flow in the far eastern TX counties and the main H850 front still draped east of the sfc low will be the first focal point of storms developing later this afternoon. The main axis of (+)H700 theta-e advection should expand NE from SE TX Panhandle into western OK. This will result in the far eastern TX Panhandle having the highest chances (20-30%) of seeing storms along the second frontal boundary moving south before sunset. Large hail and damaging winds will be thew main hazards. A second wave from either established convection moving south into the Panhandles and/or elevated convection developing in the wake of the front, downstream of a mid level perturbation, could be strong to severe later tonight into early Monday morning. The areas favored would be the eastern Panhandles.

For Monday, another round of potential strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for the Panhandles. Still in the wake of the front, plenty of 1000-1500 MLCAPE is still present. Any retreat of the main cold front and/or cold pools or old sfc boundary may help to generate convection in the area. Large hail will be the main hazard for thunderstorms that develop, given its source of any elevated lift. After high temperatures today in the 90s and 100-105 in the far southern Texas Panhandle, high temperatures on Monday in the wake of the front will range from the lower to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Daily H500 WNW flow, with a series of mid level disturbances moving over the NM/CO high terrain will provide daily chances for thunderstorms for the Panhandles. Not everyone will see rain chances daily, as the main steering flow aloft and its axis of orientation will help to determine how southeast into the Panhandles the areas of rain will reach. Highest chances for storms daily will be the northern and northeastern combined Panhandles, with lowest chances in the SW Texas Panhandle at this time. High temperatures will continue to be above average as we go into late June.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. The only exception could be between around 11-14Z where brief MVFR cigs could impact sites. Also, for KGUY, a PROB30 group for TSRA from 06-10Z is in forecast, where erratic winds with any TSRA over TAF site is possible. Overall winds will be out of the north and northeast at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ017>020-317.

OK...None.