textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- A prolonged heat wave is building through the week with major to extreme heat risk anticipated for much of the area by the end of the week.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible through Thursday afternoon, but chances are 15 percent or less.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Present model agreement continues to see a strong ridge and upper- level high pressure build across most of the Central and Western United States, which will leave the Panhandles in a very stagnate upper-level pattern for most of this week. With this pattern overhead, most models see the Panhandles being much drier then the weekend, but much hotter as well. As it stands present expectation is to see temperatures to keep warming for today and Wednesday with potential to see multiple locations hitting the triple digits. In our more terrain based locations, such as the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, we can see the terrain features have an amplifying effect on the temperatures resulting these locations easily 3 to 5 degrees warmer than expected. What will be interesting, however, is what models are currently expecting out of the mid to low-levels of the atmosphere. Down here models have continue to see a slight shift in the high pressure system, which in turn has seen a more southeasterly flow into the Panhandles. This flow is generally key in bringing in moisture out of the south and the gulf, albeit not as strong in this situation as it was last week. Still most models do expect some moisture to make its way into the Panhandles over the course of today and Wednesday.

This moisture, however, can be a bit of a double-edge sword for the Panhandles. On one hand, the expected temperatures could easily lift the moisture into developing some virga showers and isolated thunderstorms, or at very least some cloud cover, this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon which could help regulate the heat a bit. At the same time, however, the dry air in the upper- levels will likely keep said moisture trapped in the lower-levels. Should that happened, then it likely to see our heat feel worse than it actually is with for locations, especially across the Eastern Panhandles feeling 2 to 4 degrees warmer than what is actually being reported. Currently most CAMs are not too enthusiastic on the idea of any storms for the day with most only seeing a 10 to 15 percent chances of activity, though given the models do struggle with these types of storms that may be all we need. Regardless, temperatures are going to be a bigger concern for each afternoon, with a Heat Advisory already in place across the Eastern Panhandles for today and larger one becoming increasingly more likely for Wednesday as well.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Heat continues to be the big talking point for the remainder of this week as model agreement does not see the the upper-level high pressure staying over the Central and Western Untied States laying off anytime soon. With this high-pressure in place, the Panhandles will hold onto a more stagnate and dry upper-level pattern that will aid in forcing temperatures to warm clear into the weekend. Thursday and Friday in particular could be the peak of this heat with many models seeing the upper-level high extend further south and directly over the Panhandles. As it stand most models see the vast majority of the Panhandles in the triple digits with some of our more terrain based locations, such as the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, nearing the 110 degree mark Thursday afternoon. Obviously such hot temperatures for both days brings increasing confidence of some form of heat related products being needed. However, what may not be as obvious is that low temperatures are not fairing much better with present expectations seeing locations, such as Amarillo, have the potential to either break or tie their record warm low temperature clear through Sunday. Expectations like these would also mean that there is very little relief occurring during overnight hours which may only amplify the risk of seeing heat related illness as each day passes. In short, the closing days of this week may see an much higher risk for heat related illness not just from very hot afternoon, but from the accumulating effect of seeing these hot temperatures for multiple day on top of getting very little relief from the heat overnight.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 12Z TAF period. VRB wind speeds are expected until 17Z, but may persist longer at KAMA. Winds will remain predominantly out of the SE, but more ESE at KGUY. Some cumulus development across KGUY and KDHT from 21Z to 03Z is possible, and bases would range from 8000-9000 feet.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-013>015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.