textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

-Continued on and off rain today across the Panhandles with isolated thunderstorms possible in the southwest.

-Cool wind chills in the 30s tonight across the Panhandles.

-Breezy conditions to return on Tuesday with milder temperatures through the week.

-Low chance of showers and storms to return at the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Upper level negative tilt trough moving across the Four Corners will gradually split away into a cutoff low that is currently tracking over the Panhandles today and tomorrow. Temperatures will continue to be warm enough for rain despite some areas in the upper 30s at times and wind chills may even feel below freezing at times as well. There is a very subtle time period this afternoon where just enough instability aloft in the southwestern Panhandles could allow for some rumbles of thunder, and possibly some lightning. But overall just steady on and off rain showers today through Sunday afternoon.

As the system tracks across the area tonight into Sunday, the wrap around back side moisture will begin to fade away in the early morning hours for the west, and by mid to late afternoon, most of it should be clear of the east as well. Overall the system will exit to the southeast and high pressure will begin to take over. Still lingering cloud cover despite the exiting system will aid in cool temperatures on Sunday, as we only expect highs in the 40s with a decent low cloud base. Will not rule out some patchy fog if areas manage to clear out and then radiational cooling kicks in at the surface.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

While high pressure continues to build over the Panhandles there will still be some lingering colder air from the departed system. Residual low clouds will still be a concern as well, that will hold Monday's highs back into the mid 40s to lower 50s. The northwest may clear out first and therefore it could be a bit warmer there, but the southeast should still be cooler and cloudy. Winds will be a bit breezy as well on Monday and even more so on Tuesday. Cross barrier flow will pick up a bit from the ridge shifting east as the strong jet aloft still remains further west near the Four Corners. But this will be enough for a weak lee surface low to set up on Monday and strengthen a bit on Tuesday. Winds may gust up around 40 mph in the northwest on Tuesday with milder, yet still slightly below normal highs. On Wednesday we'll have mild southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles with an approaching shortwave. Right now the precipitation that we get out of this shortwave is very much up in the air as a lot of it is eroded away after it crosses the Rockies and enters some drier air, and it looks like limited Gulf moisture will be brought up to the Panhandles with that shortwave. So pops are on the light side mid to late next week.

As the system exits on Wednesday the high will reposition itself over Mexico but will be suppressed a bit by that last system, but this will keep a mild southwest flow over the Panhandles and a return of temperatures back in the 60s. There is another Pacific weather system that progged to reach the Panhandles next Friday, and out ahead of it there's a low chance for some showers/storms on Thursday in the southeast and again on Friday as the system move across the Panhandles. As we get closer we'll look into this system to see if it's more of a rain producer, or a dry slot breezy system. Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

MVFR/LIFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours as a weather system moves across the Panhandles. On and off bands of precipitation are expected to continue for the next 24 hours resulting the various category changes, but overall when precipitation is involved, expect IFR/LIFR conditions to prevail, with MVFR fuel alternate conditions likely as best case scenario. After 12z chances of rain will drop off but cigs/vis may still struggle to recover before 18z. There is a very low chance >10% of thunder with some of these rain showers, but not enough to note in TAF's. Will note them in amendments if necessary.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.