textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Above average temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

- Watching for a potential system to bring rain, potentially some heavy rain, to the combined Panhandles this coming weekend. Along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

With the shortwave through that produced yesterdays virga/showers and breezy winds, we have transitioned to a more quiet and warm setup as high pressure moves over the central CONUS. With the surface low off to the east we're more relaxed with winds today, but still may be in that 5-15 mph range. As we move into Thursday and the next system approaches, we'll have stronger cross barrier flow over the Rockies and we expect surface gradients to tighten up a bit leading to more breezy southerly winds in the 15 mph range gusting up to 25 mph for Thursday. While still pretty warm on Thursday, highs will be a couple degrees cooler, except the OK Panhandle. With cloud cover in place most of the night on Thursday and winds still holding steady around 10 to 15 mph, the overnight lows should be pretty mild.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

While warm and breezy southerly flow will continue on Friday, we'll be mostly cloudy as the weather system approaches and that will hold temperatures down more in the mid 70s. Right now models continue to trend a more delayed arrival of precipitation and the chances look to be isolated to the western Panhandle Friday evening. Even as we get to Saturday the upper low may stall out and track almost due north toward the Four Corners. This will just continue that south to north flow real close to the TX/NM state line for most of the day Saturday. This would be the area to watch Friday night into Saturday afternoon for possible flooding concerns. By Saturday night the low ejects more northeast and that will pull the swath of moisture more into the central Panhandles, as a result highs look to still be pretty mild, in the 70s, across the eastern Panhandles with cooler temperatures in the 60s for the west closer to the showers.

Sunday looks to be the best day for widespread rain chances. The far southeast still looks to be on the mild side temperature wise as it might still miss out on the rain. As we move into Monday the upper disturbance is progged to track just north of the Panhandles and that will push that precipitation swath further south and that should cover any areas in the southeast that may have missed precipitation in previous days. Highs on Monday and Tuesday look to be in the 60s in the post frontal environment, and the rain chances should really start to fall off Monday night as that front may be mostly through the Panhandles.

Just looking at the DESI probs for 1" over the weekend, by Monday morning the central and western Panhandles sit above 50% chance, and by Tuesday morning the entire Panhandles sits in the 30 to 60% range. Adding to that, the probs for 2" of rain over the weekend the central Panhandles is around 30% with numbers as high as 70% southwest of the Dalhart area. When we look at Sunday through Tuesday we are in the 10 to 50% range for the entire Panhandles, with the central Panhandles having the higher probabilities. So the setup, while could have failures the dry slot the Panhandles, does look more and more probable for increased rainfall, and possibly some flooding concerns.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF site over the next 24 hours with variable winds being in the 5-15kt range with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Any clouds will be mainly high clouds. Winds will be more out of the south around 10-15kts as we head into the tail end of the TAF period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.