textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- 100+ degree temperatures potential in the panhandles through the weekend, with the highest confidence in the southeast.

- Later this afternoon through evening there is a 15-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the NE to E combined Panhandles. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. - A pattern shift early next work week has the potential bring much needed rain and breaks in temperatures to portions of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Today the high pressure system remains across the southern plains with it center moving across the southern portions of the Texas panhandles. This a flat high pressure system with the northern panhandles being more within a broad west to east flow aloft. The presence of the high pressure will bring heating to the panhandles causing hot temperatures. The hottest areas will most likely be in the southern panhandles with it not being as hot towards the northwestern panhandles where the high pressure is not as strong. This will lead to well above normal temperatures across the panhandles with the potential for some record heat as the highs reach the 90s to low 100s. As the center of the high pressure shifts to the east it will allow a ribbon of moisture to push across mainly the eastern portions of the panhandles. Then towards the later afternoon and evening the broad west to east flow will allow for a small scale weather system to pass across the northern panhandles. The passage of this system will provide both lift and dynamics which then coupled with the ribbon of moisture will allow for a low to medium chance for thunderstorms. The most likely area for these storms to form will be in the northeastern to eastern panhandles. There is a degrading chance further west in the central panhandles as it is questionable how far to the west this small weather system will extend. The most likely timing for these storms will be during the passage of the weather system which is later in the afternoon through to the late evening. The instability during this time can be high as the CAPE will most likely range from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg with a few models suggesting pockets of up to 4000 J/kg. The shear would most likely start off more modest at 20 to 30 mph but would increase through the evening potential reaching past 50 mph as the low level jet sets up. What this means is that the environment is conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms for later this afternoon and evening. The initial mode for such storms can start off as discrete supercells before shifting more towards cluster and linear features. Such storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, tornados cannot be ruled out. The ribbon of moisture will be very substantial so any storm that forms within will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that can cause flooding. The storms will most likely come to an end with the departure of the small weather system during the late evening to early overnight hours.

Sunday the high pressure system remain dominant across the southern plains but continues to shift further to the east. This will likely lead to another hot day across the panhandles with well above normal temperatures. There will once again be the potential for record highs as the go into the 90s to low 100s. With the high shifting to the east another small scale weather system can pass across portions of the northwestern panhandles. However, the moisture quantity is likely to be low with this system which will keep any chances for rain showers and thunderstorms low.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Monday brings a pattern shift as a large scale low pressure system over the western CONUS moves east flattening out and pushing eastward the high pressure system over southeastern CONUS. This will allow for moisture to return to the region in force starting later on Monday. The arrival of the moisture coupled with the dynamics of the weather system will allow for a low chance for afternoon to evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday is shaping up to be the most active day as even more moisture and a cold front arrives in the panhandles. This will bring a medium to high chance for rain showers and thunderstorms favoring more of the northwestern panhandles. Moisture continues to stream across the panhandles through the rest of the work week. This will allow for a low to medium chance for further rain showers and thunderstorms through Friday. All this active weather will most likely lead to cooler conditions for the panhandles for the panhandles starting on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. However later this afternoon to evening there is a low chance for thunderstorms mainly in the northeastern to eastern panhandles. A passage of a thunderstorm can bring IFR conditions mainly due to visibility reductions from heavy rain. Severe thunderstorms that can produce large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. For now the chances of these storms impacting any terminal is to low to be reflected in the TAFs. This can change so stay tuned for future TAFs. Otherwise breezy southerly winds will occur this afternoon at all terminals.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.