textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

Elevated fire weather conditions continue through 8 PM this evening due to dry and windy conditions. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday & Thursday.

Windy conditions are expected behind a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 4 AM to 4 PM for +50 mph winds in the Texas Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The Theta-E moisture gradient is clearly being shown based off the current convection and the latest observations. Dewpoint temperatures are as high as 56 degrees in the southern Texas Panhandle. While 50 degree dewpoints are relatively confined to those zones, 40's and 30's are much more widespread. Storms today will be high based with cold 500 mb temperatures aloft. Though MUCAPE profiles are not overly impressive, enough instability is present for thunderstorms to not only continue but become severe later this afternoon due to strong 0-6 km bulk shear and steep lapse rates. The current environment continues to support large hail and damaging winds with any storm that can become organized. As convective initiation furthers and storms progress east, thunderstorms should have a short window to become strong or severe before moving into western Oklahoma. CAMs this afternoon are back to showing some better coverage from storms this afternoon, but we still expect the convective activity to remain mostly isolated.

Fire weather conditions remain elevated today, with the potential for RFTI values to increase later this afternoon in our western zones. Still no plans on updating the current RFD and fire weather conditions should subside around 8 PM tonight.

Later tonight, a strong cold front will move through the CWA and strong winds are still expected to accompany it's arrival. 21Z HREF probabilities for wind gusts above 50 mph have increase to 80% or more for some areas. Short term model guidance also generally continues to support these strong winds mixing down to the surface tonight. The probability for +60 mph gusts is still low, but we are seeing more models favor these higher end gusts. The HRRR is still the strongest member in the HREF ensemble, but it still seems to be an outlier due to other CAMs having trouble mixing down these 50 kt winds from 500 m above the surface. For now, we have issued a Wind Advisory that begins tonight at 4AM and lingers through 4 PM Wednesday. Peak winds still look to occur between 7 AM through 10 AM, but chance for 50 mph winds still prevail beyond the morning hours. High tomorrow should cap out in the 50's and 60's. Despite the cooler temperatures, minimum RH values should still range in the mid teens and 20's across the FA. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, though the miss- match between the timing of the strongest winds and the timing of the lowest RH are preventing critical fire weather conditions from manifesting.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The upper level pattern returns to more zonal flow from Thursday through the rest of the week. By next Sunday, long range models continue to display consistency concerning another cold front moving through our area. This large scale upper level trough is currently expected to place the region under northwest flow in it's wake.

High temperatures will experience a steady incline Thursday through Saturday. 70's are forecast areawide on Thursday, then increasing to the upper 70's and 80's by Friday. On Saturday, some areas will prepare to see the return of 90 degree temperatures, while the rest of the CWA should remain in the 80's. Fire weather conditions will need to be analyzed on a day-by-day basis due to the general dryness of the panhandles, yet no notably strong signals of wind or RH elements to warrant fire weather product consideration this far out.

A sharp reduction in highs are anticipated after the cold front moves through on Sunday, and these cooler temperatures should linger into Monday due to the overcast cloud coverage expected. We can also anticipate a return to below freezing overnight lows Monday and Tuesday morning, with many locations forecast to return back to the 20's for the first time in a while. PoPs will remain absent in the extended due to the lack of a strong moisture signal from model guidance.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms have moved within the vicinity of KDHT and KGUY in the previous hour, but are not expected to impact the terminals directly at this time. Short term model updates do hint at the notion of increased thunderstorm coverage later this afternoon. While confidence is still not high for thunderstorms over any TAF site, amendments may become necessary now through 00Z if an isolated storm can directly move over a terminal.

The main concern for the overnight period will be the increasing winds behind the cold front. Wind gusts up to 44 kts are possible at KAMA, but gusts may be slightly lighter at the other two sites. The wind direction will be from the north once the front moves through. Blowing dust may also affect all sites, but confidence concerning visibility reduction is low at this time.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ004-005- 007>020-317.

OK...None.