textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

-Repeat rounds of rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast through the remainder of the work week, where flash flooding is possible.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Latest 03Z observational trends shows several areas of multi-cell thunderstorm clusters that have developed across eastern New Mexico and the Texas South Plains generally moving north and northeast. Especially for the western Panhandles and potentially southern TX Panhandle where chances are the highest, rain should begin to move into the region starting overnight hours, with on/off rain chances continuing for the next few days. The main set up for these rain chances, as seen from the latest satellite observations continues to show a developing H500 ridge with the main axis into Nebraska. Meanwhile, a deepening trough windward of the central and southern Rockies wit hits axis into the eastern Pacific has resulted in a pronounced corridor of moisture transport with the main axis into CO/NM and the Panhandles. PWAT values within this flow is expected to be in the 99th percentile. With repeat rounds of rain and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday from this synoptic setup expected to continue, localized flooding and/or flash flooding concerns are expected to continue throughout the remainder of the work week, especially for areas closer to the NM stateline where overall chances for rain remain the highest. But we continue to monitor mentionable rain chances for the remainder of the Panhandles as well. Any robust storms could produce locally strong wind gusts, but in particular, heavy rainfall rates with training of storms still pose flooding as the main concern with these storms. HIgh temperatures with mostly cloudy skies and persistent rain chances will remain below average with values ranging from the lower 70s in the western Panhandles to mid 80s in the eastern Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

As the main ridge across the central Plains breaks down into the first half of the weekend, the last of the rain chances from this main setup will decrease going into the second half of the weekend. Latest model guidance shows dry conditions returning with H500 westerly flow returning. Some guidance shows potential rain chances returning by next week with a potential disturbance moving east through the Four Corners Region. Will have to monitor and update those rain chances as we get closer to next week with those rain chances. Below average highs on Friday will return to near to above average temperatures for this coming weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Various categories at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Most probable will be MVFR 1-2kft agl cigs, but will not rule out IFR/LIFR cigs, especially if moderate to heavy rainfall manages to occur with a given shower or storm. Winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast in the 10-15kt range, but gusts up to 25kts will be possible as well.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.