textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Dry weather continues through this weekend with high temperatures in the 80s.

- A pattern shift will see chances of showers and thunderstorms return starting Tuesday with better chances following for the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

An upper-level ridge continues to hold over the Western Untied States with no signs of it breaking down until this weekend. This ridge and associated high pressure have the Panhandles dry through the rest of the work week with chances of precipitation staying under 5 percent. Winds will also look to stay on the lighter side today thanks to this upper-level pattern keeping both jets well away from the Panhandles. However by Friday, present CAMs do see a weak lead-side low begin to appear, which will be just enough to see our more typical breezy conditions return that afternoon. Unfortunately, these dry conditions will also lead to our warmer temperatures continuing. For today and tomorrow look for high temperatures in the mid 80s with some of our known hotter locations looking be nearing or at 90.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

By this weekend, model agreement does start to see the upper- level ridge begin to break down with the introduction of a new trough pushing into the West Coast. For the Panhandles, these systems will lead to a more zonal to southwesterly flow for the weekend that will continue the trend of seeing dry and warm conditions. Beyond the weekend however, model agreement is still trending to a full pattern shift as the trough continues to build across the West Coast and force the high pressure over us to move east. Should the trend continue then it possible that the Panhandles will be seeing a very similar monsoonal set up to what was seen in late September. This would of course lead to decent amounts of moisture being forced in from both gulfs and chances of precipitation returning as early as Monday.

What could be interesting, however, is that models have been seeing yet another tropical system getting push up through the Gulf of California and Central Mexico before being ingest into the trough as it is pushes eastward during the middle of next week. The ingestion of this tropical system would lead to an extra round of high moisture over the Panhandles resulting much higher than expected rainfall amounts for both Tuesday and Wednesday. However, models have been seeing a lot of uncertainty on this tropical system even coming to be with both the GFS and ECMWF seeing it disappear and reappear with each run. Added to this, the present GFS has seen the potential for a dry-slot to push in ahead of the activity Tuesday, which could weaken chances as well. For now, present ensembles have grown more confident in the system bring us some activity with chance of precipitation around 20 to 40 percent each day clear into Thursday. Otherwise, look for temperatures to cool with passage of this system with afternoon highs lowering in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Light and variable winds will settle out of the south-southwest at 10 kts or less today and tonight.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.