textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across the Panhandles.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecasted for Sunday and monday across portions of the panhandles.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms have a low to moderate chance of returning late Monday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The upper level portions of the weather system is passing across the southern plains today. A portion of this weather system is expected to separate from the rest of the weather system and dig to the southwest. In doing so it will become its own closed low weather system that will impact the southern plains later next week. As for the portion of the weather system that is impacting the southern plains it is causing a tight pressure gradient across the panhandles. This will be the main cause of the gust southwest winds that will blow across the panhandles through the rest of the afternoon. Sustained winds during this time will most likely be in the 20s to 30s mph range with gusts generally in the 40s mph range although there will be some gusts reaching the lowers 50s mph range. The winds will generally be stronger in the northwestern panhandles and a little weaker toward the southeastern panhandles. These winds are actively pushing out the moisture associated with the weather system and replacing it with far drier air from New Mexico. This will cause the RH to drop down to the lower teens to the single digits across almost the entire panhandles. Such dry conditions coupled with the winds is causing elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the panhandles. AS such there is both a Red Flag Warning for much of the panhandles for the ongoing fire weather conditions and a Wind Advisory for much of the western panhandles for the windy conditions. It is highly advised to avoid any activity that can produce sparks or flames as this can lead to wildfires that can destroy your community. Still not all news is bad as earlier this morning the widespread moisture of the weather system produced copious amounts of dew that will help delay the onset of the critical fire weather conditions. This evening the cold front associated with the weather system will pass in a north to south fashion across the panhandles. This will bring a sharp shift in the winds from southwesterly through westerly ahead of the front to northerly behind the front. Even after the front passes the winds will most likely remain gusty through the nighttime just at weaker speeds compared to our afternoon winds. The wind shift can have the detrimental impact of causing any ongoing wildfires to shift rapidly the direction of where they area spreading. However relief will come fast after frontal passage as moisture once again pushes back across the panhandles leading to an end of the fire weather conditions. This is mainly low level moisture so it is very unlikely to lead to any cloud cover and no shot at all for any precipitation. The winds will finally weaken across the panhandles late Saturday morning as the weather systems departs off to the east. This will leave the rest of Saturday with calm and cool weather across the panhandles. Still some patchy elevated fire weather conditions can persist as overall the panhandles will be dry for Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Sunday the low pressure system off the west coast of Baja California will have a high chance of becoming progressive again moving slowly eastward. Initially the impacts of this system will be limited to causing breezy winds during the daytime hours. This system will have a greater impact to the panhandles by late Monday when it finally moves in some moisture. This moisture will most likely stay confined to the southern portions of the TX panhandle for Monday to early Tuesday. As the moisture will be limited in scope most of the panhandles will most likely be dry. These dry conditions coupled with breezy daytime winds has a high chance of causing elevated to critical fire weather conditions for Sunday and Monday across large portions of the panhandles. As the weather system continues to move eastward across southern TX the moisture has a moderate chance of spreading across the central and eastern panhandles and a low chance for the western panhandles. Still the trajectory of this system is not the most favorable for the panhandles so exactly how much moisture is moved in remains uncertain. For the current forecast the moisture amounts has a low to moderate chance of causing rain showers and thunderstorms for the panhandles. The chances will be higher for the eastern panhandles and decreases to the west which lines up with where the moisture is expected to impact. After this system moves to the east a more neutral to higher pressure weather pattern is most likely to settle across the southern plains. Such a pattern would bring drier and warmer conditions to the panhandles for the rest of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

MVFR conditions currently at DHT, could reduce to IFR due to blowing dust over the next couple of hours, but variability in VIS is high. Winds will decrease consistently into the night and morning on Saturday, allowing for VFR conditions to prevail. Winds will shift from WSW to N overnight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>003-006-007- 011-016.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ001-002.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.