textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Low chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon.

- Low to medium chance for thunderstorms Friday with a low chance for these storms to become strong to severe.

- Warmer and drier weather over the weekend.

- Chances for rain showers and thunderstorms return for next work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 748 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Low clouds, fog, and increased surface moisture have all led to temperatures much warmer to start the morning that previously forecast. Fog is already clearing out across the area and the Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled. Rain showers have already exited off to the east but cannot rule out a few showers or storms still reaching the northeastern combined Panhandles through mid day. Temperatures and precipitation chances were updated based on observed and model trends through this evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles tonight even as it moves to the northeast. This is causing mainly light rain showers with the occasional thunderstorms in the northeastern panhandles. These will come to an end later this morning as the weather system continues to push to the northeast. This will allow for a dirty ridge to build across the panhandles for much of today bringing more stable conditions. There will still be some lingering moisture and instability that will allow for a low chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. This ridge will not last as it will be pushed out of the region by the arrival of the next weather system for Friday. The path that this weather system is taking will make it negative in orientation. This normally brings an increase in the amount of shear and instability it can produce. However the center of this weather system will be far to the west of the panhandles which will counter this effect. This makes it questionable just how much instability and shear will be present across the panhandles for Friday. Right now these are looking to be fairly modest for such a weather system at 1000-2000 J/Kg of CAPE and 20 to 40 kt of shear. This would still allow for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms but with more limited coverage. Still such values will allow for a low chance for stronger to even severe thunderstorms. If the system moves more favorable towards the southern plains then it could lead to better dynamics and thus more and stronger storms. Conversely if it continues in a less favorable trajectory then the panhandles could see even less and weaker convection. This forecast is still likely to change as the finer details of this weather system become more certain.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This weekend will most likely see the weather system push off to the east leading to a more southwesterly to westerly flow across the southern plains. This flow has the potential to transition to a broad ridge over the course of the weekend. Such a flow will bring mostly drier air to the panhandles leading to more dry weather. Still if some moisture manages to linger across the panhandles this weekend it can still lead to afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. Such an occurrence will be far more miss than hit though so dont bank on any rain this weekend.

Towards next work week moisture has an increasing chance to work its way back across the southern plains. This would lead to the return of daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms each afternoon of each day. There are some hints that a weather system can form late next week which opens up an opportunity for more organized thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

LIFR conditions expected to persist at KAMA a little longer as some dense fog has set in. MVFR to potentially IFR CIGs for KDHT and KGUY may take a little bit longer to clear out as well. As we get into the late morning conditions should improve with all sites becoming VFR with some light and variable winds. There will be a very low chance for some showers and thunderstorms across the combined Panhandles later this afternoon after 18Z. Confidence is too low to add to the TAFs at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.