textproduct: Amarillo

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side.

Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again, the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft). Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn't likely based on weak wind profile).

Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west, so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central zones.

Ward

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side.

Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again, the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft). Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn't likely based on weak wind profile).

Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west, so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central zones.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that our high pressure will start shifting west slightly Monday into Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and overnight storms, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two next week partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also just in response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure center. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are suggesting.

Ward

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Another boundary is expected to stall in the Southern Texas Panhandles this afternoon with potential to severe as a good lifting mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Currently KAMA is the only terminal that CAMS have seen any potential for impacts. However, confidence in impacts to said terminal has be low, given the trend of a more southerly placement of the boundary alongside the coverage being more isolated in nature. Still, this confidence can quickly change should the boundary move further north with damaging outflow wind gusts becoming the primary threat. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold through the current package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ008>010-013>015-018>020-317.

OK...None.