textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the north today, while elevated conditions persist across most of the southern Texas Panhandle. Conditions remain favorable for fires to spread quickly.

A pattern shift starting Tuesday will see chances of showers and thunderstorms possible clear into next weekend. Chances for impactful rainfall continue to increase.

The potential for severe thunderstorms late week remain low, but we cannot rule out the threat Thursday through Saturday at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Clear skies are being observed this morning and temperatures are mainly in the 40s across the region as winds are remaining around 10-15 mph. Those winds will quickly increase with gusts approaching 30-40 mph by mid to late morning today out of the south to southwest. The highest wind gusts today are expected across the northwest, where gusts could be in the 40-45 mph range early this afternoon. These strong winds will lead to a critical fire weather day across the north. The forecast for today remains largely on track, with only minor edits made to increase wind gusts this afternoon.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

H500 high pressure continues to be suppressed in the short term period. A surface low remains anchored in eastern Colorado during this period, and mid level winds stay strong over the CWA. At the surface, expect strong winds both today and tomorrow afternoon. Overnight, wind speeds may still be breezy. The direction of the winds today will be southwesterly. Tomorrow, winds take on a more southerly flow. Highs in the 70s are forecast for today across the FA. On Tuesday, highs may actually remain in the 60s for some areas due to increased cloud coverage and potential showers during the day time. Tuesday's PoPs are still not high for any particular area, but confidence is increasing for western zones to receive precipitation. QPF remains on the lighter side areawide. Critical fire weather conditions stay forecast for our northern zones this afternoon and evening. For more details see the FIRE WEATHER discussion.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Signals for the weather pattern shifting are still strong in the extended period. Upper level troughing in the west continues even 7 days outs. Yesterday's model runs show the upper level low hanging further back than previous runs. The slower this system takes to move into our region, the more chances for rainfall we'll have as quality Gulf of America moisture surges in. Late in the long term period, the operational GFS show the upper low accelerating into the Plains while the operational ECMWF holds the system back further west. If the ECMWF solution pans out, this may also aid in extending rain chances into next week.

Generally, high temperatures in the long term period remain bound to the 70s and 80s. 70 degree highs are more likely for the days where afternoon cloud cover or precipitation will be prevalent. PoPs Thursday onward continue to be moderate to high (50-80%) daily for the rest of the period. Though these values are high late week, concerns are still present that the storm mode will limit QPF more than what long term models suggest, given their broad spatial resolution. Still, medium to high chances remain for certain areas to receive >0.5" of rain, especially in the southeast Texas Panhandle. Concerns for severe weather remain present, though the details continue to fluctuate since models still don't agree of the timing of the shortwaves or the placement of instability this weekend.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions should persist with this TAF cycle. Winds will quickly increase out of the south to southwest with gusts up to 30-35 kts today. Those winds will start to decrease around sunset this evening but sustained winds should stay around 10-15 kts through the end of this TAF issuance. Clear skies are expected initially but high clouds will move in towards the later half of this TAF period.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Strong, southwesterly surface winds and low minimum relative humidity will create critical fire weather conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle today. Elevated conditions are expected for the remainder of the area, barring the far southeast, due to winds being slightly weaker and RH values being slightly higher. If the surface low remains positioned over eastern Colorado, surface winds have the potential to stay up overnight. The wind direction will shift slightly from SW to S by tonight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>007.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.