textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Heat will build back across the region this weekend with potential for some locations, including Palo Duro Canyon, to observe high temperatures near 105 degrees through the week.

- Very low (20 percent or less) precipitation chances will linger for mainly the northwest combined Panhandles through the end of August.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Expect a hot and mostly dry end to August, as high pressure meanders back atop the region. Record heat will be possible as well today, especially at Dalhart and Borger. Dry and breezy weather will support elevated fire weather conditions both today and Monday for portions of the Panhandles. A relatively moisture starved environment atop the region will greatly diminish precipitation chances, although 10-20% POPs exist across the far northwest Panhandles in the evening hours both today and tomorrow.

Mesoanalysis and satellite water vapor show a 595 dam ridge currently centered over the southern Great Plains, and will continue translating eastward over the next couple of days. A tighter surface pressure gradient has developed over the Panhandles, leading to breezy southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 mph. Afternoon temperatures unfortunately will climb back to the upper 90s to just above the century mark in tandem with these breezy winds. Outflow boundaries may spark a rogue shower or storm further south and east of the northwest Panhandles especially overnight into Monday morning. However, rain probabilities will likely stay below 10% for any one location outside of the northwest Panhandles.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Model trends aren't looking great to kick off September, as hot and dry conditions are very likely to prevail. Both deterministic and ensemble datasets depict high pressure being nudged eastward over the southeast CONUS through the week, as persistent troughing settles atop the Pacific northwest. Although this does loosen the grip of ridging over the Panhandles, it should still have enough influence to reduce moisture transport to the CWA while keeping high temperatures in the 90 to 105 range each day this week. If there are any days with better rain chances, models suggest Tue could see slightly improved potential as the jet stream sags closer to the Panhandles. However, this still only supports meager 10-20% POPs to far northwestern portions of the forecast area. Elevated fire weather conditions may return any given day with breezy winds, but we'll monitor trends for later this week to see if troughing could provide better rain opportunities again.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions with breezy winds are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds stay out of the south-southwest at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts in the afternoon-evening hours. KGUY could have some marginal LLWS overnight, but breezy surface winds will mostly negate that threat.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.