textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Scattered storms are expected across mainly the western and central combined Panhandles this afternoon and evening with a few becoming strong to severe. Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the primary hazards.

- High temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees are expected throughout this week. Expecting highs to increase further as we head into the holiday weekend and will lead to moderate to major heat risk and affect those who are without adequate cooling and hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Latest satellite and upper level observations indicate persistent broad trough over the intermountain west with near neutral height tendencies across the southern plains through tonight. A fetch of H7 to H5 moisture can be seen on the latest water vapor imagery from the Big Bend region of Texas up into the Great Lakes region. A minor shortwave embedded in the southwest flow was noted in the water vapor imagery crossing from southeast NM into far west Texas, and this may provide some lift across the combined Panhandles later this afternoon into the evening (along with some enhanced moisture). The latest mesoanalysis shows a surface trough forming over eastern NM with mostly 50s dew points to the west and low to mid 60s dew points to the east. AC clouds can be observed looking east from the office which is helping keep temperatures in the 70s across the east compared to more 80s across the central and west. Destabilization is occurring just on the west side of the AC shield from the southwest TX Panhandle up to south central and southwest KS.

The latest short term guidance (HREF, HRRR, RRFS) suggest storms will form in the axis of instability and near the higher terrain of NM by mid to late afternoon. The southwest winds aloft will result in a mean storm motion to the east northeast at about 20 mph. As the storms move eastward they should congeal into some clusters and gradually weaken into the evening as they encounter more stable air. With modest MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and pockets of effective shear approaching 20-30 kts, some multicells can be expected, with the strongest updrafts capable of severe hail and damaging winds. DCAPE values should be in the 1200 to 1600 range (highest in the northwest) by peak heating, which when combined with storm speeds of around 20 kts, could produce some isolated 75 mph gusts with the most notable microbursts. Not really seeing a high risk for training storms today (although a few models are trying to develop storms in the far southeast that could train if they form). However, PWATs around the 90th percentile and good moisture transport will promote efficient rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour in the stronger cells. Thus, there is a low chance for some localized flooding.

Tomorrow will see a similar setup but with less forcing, so overall coverage of storms should be less. However, any storms that do get going will see a similar environment to today. If things really get worked over well into the overnight tonight, then it will decrease the chance of seeing activity tomorrow.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Latest ensembles and medium/long term models continue to favor height rises through Saturday as high pressure builds into the area. This will increase our high temperatures from mid 90s to more upper 90s to low 100s. Currently thinking the area will stay below advisory criteria, but it could get close. With heat risk ramping up to the moderate to major category and all the outdoor activities expected for Independence Day, some heat impacts can be expected. With record highs for our climate sites being somewhat easy to break on Saturday (102 for AMA and DHT, 104 for BGD), we could get close. Secondary to the heat is the low chance for some diurnally driven thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Currently the chance for severe weather is very low due to the lack of wind shear and very weak winds aloft, but can't rule out some gusty outflow winds or brief downpours. Rain chances come up some Sunday into next week as the H5 high pressure shifts more over the Four Corners region providing northwest flow over the plains.

Ward

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions with mainly southerly winds can be expected through the period. There is a 20-40 percent chance for storms mainly between 21z and 03z this evening, which could produce localized MVFR/IFR due to heavy rain, along with strong outflow winds. Have included prob30 groups for AMA and DHT where confidence has increased some for storm impacts, but still not high enough to include prevailing TS.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.