textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Light rain is possible tonight through Friday afternoon across mainly the western Panhandles. Model trends continue to reduce rain chances and totals across the area.

- Frost and freeze conditions may occur on Saturday morning for the central and western Panhandles. Frost has become the main concern as chances for freezing temperatures have decreased.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The main message of the short term period revolves around decreasing PoPs and QPF today for the entire CWA. The trajectory and better dynamics of this incoming system continue to trend southward. So much so, that it will leave most of the area unlikely to accumulate rainfall over 0.5" in the next 24 hours. The western combined Panhandles are still most favored for precipitation compared to the rest of the area due to showers lifting and moving off the high terrain in New Mexico. The eastern extent of QPF continues to fall lower with each new run of the CAMs. Short term models continue to suggest that showers will struggle to move out of New Mexico, which is supported by lackluster low to mid level Theta-E profiles in our area. Theta-E values are still high enough to allow for clouds across High Plains. Overcast cloud coverage and light northerly winds will keep most of the combined Panhandles in the 50s today.

As a surface high pushes south tonight, winds in the region will become light and stay that way through the rest of the short period. Clouds are also expected to clear out quickly early Saturday morning. Conditions for frost development, especially across the west, remain favorable. However, there are still some caveats on whether temperatures will reach freezing conditions. Forecast dewpoint temperatures continue to stay above 32 degrees for much of the area due to the moisture expected. If we manage to over perform on precipitation or cloud coverage lingers too long, temperatures may only get down to the mid 30s. Given the high relative humidity, frost is the main hazard Saturday morning. We will still monitor the potential for both hazards as we get closer in time, since we cannot rule out a few sites dropping below freezing for a short time before stabilizing to a warmer temperature. Product issuance may become necessary down the line for these reasons.

For the rest of Saturday, winds will stay light as mentioned. Highs will rebound to the 70s areawide and cloud coverage will stay mostly sunny. Chances for precipitation to carry over into Saturday are very low for our FA.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

As the previous system exits, upper level ridging will return over the Panhandle region for the start of the extended period. This pattern will not have much of a chance to settle, as a large scale low pressure system redevelops west of the Continental Divide and progresses eastward. A cold front moving out of Canada is also forecast to enter the High Plains by midweek.

High temperatures will return to seasonal averages by Sunday, but they will be much warmer on Monday. As our next cold front moves through, high will drop back into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will recover once warm air is reintroduced on Thursday. Surface winds will mostly be out of the southwest next week, except for the time frame of the frontal passage where winds will be northeasterly. Today's rain totals and their effects on fuel quality will be driving factors that could mitigate or allow for fire weather conditions to return Sunday through Tuesday next week. Winds and temperatures will ensure places dry out on those days, but minimum relative humidity may still be high enough to hinder fire weather, defiantly so if we can get some good rain today. (But probably not...) Conditions will be monitored as we head towards that time frame.

Precipitation is possible as the front moves through next week, but long range models are still having a difficult time deciphering how far south the moisture will move. Currently, the high PoPs are placed in the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwestern Texas Panhandle Monday night through Wednesday.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

TAF sites will deal with varying categories for the most part today, as scattered showers are expected around the central and western Panhandles. This may cause brief or prolonged MVFR/IFR cigs. Winds for the most part in the 5-15kt range out of the east to northeast. VFR conditions look to return after 00z for the most part.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.