textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Dry conditions with seasonal temperatures will continue through the work week.

- Active weather looks to return this weekend and again next week with increasing rain chances and breezy winds.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Morning satellite data shows some high clouds looming over the Panhandles, but all in all it is shaping up to be a fantastic Veteran's Day. Our synoptic pattern is characterized by northwest flow aloft, maintaining a dry air mass in the wake of last night's cold front. Winds will hold around 10 mph through the afternoon, but will become extremely light and variable overnight. Clearing skies in tandem with these light winds tonight and tomorrow night will make for optimal radiational cooling, with morning lows forecast in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged tomorrow, with light winds, sunny skies, and highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s forecast across the region.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

After a pristine fall Friday, we're looking at an active shift in our weather for the weekend, potentially recurring mid-late next week. Breezy south winds return Saturday when a lead shortwave ahead of our next weather maker passes just south of the Panhandles, leaving a tighter pressure gradient over the region (sustained 15-20 mph gusting to 35 mph). These winds will advect better moisture northward to the Panhandles, with weak forcing from the shortwave potentially producing some light showers early Saturday morning- afternoon. The far more promising chance for rain should arrive with the main low pressure system models show approaching from our northwest late Saturday into Sunday. This is when moisture and lift will be maximized across the region, before the system clears out Sunday night. Rain chances keep climbing for Saturday night into Sunday, now greater than 70% across the eastern Panhandles, with 40-70% probabilities for measurable rain further west.

Any rain earlier Saturday would likely be on the lighter side, as limited forcing and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" are good but not great (especially with little to no CAPE). As we go into Sunday, moderate to heavier rain showers are expected across the east where PWATs could be closer to 1", leading to 40-70% chances for rainfall to exceed 0.5". The way things are trending, most of the CWA would receive only a tenth or two of an inch, with some locations in the west staying even less than that. Looking at run to run ensemble upper level and QPF trends shows that this system has been gradually shifting further south, so we'll see if this leads to any significant changes to forecast expectations moving forward.

Temperatures this weekend into next week are continuing to come in as below average (highs in 50s & lows in 30s), thanks to fairly persistent cloud cover over the area. Global models are holding onto the notion that after a brief period of ridging early next week, additional strong weather systems could approach the region. If this pans out, breezy winds along with additional rain chances would be expected.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR sky conditions with mostly light and variable winds are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will eventually settle out of the west at 10 kts or less towards the end of the period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.