textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Hot and dry today, with dangerous heat widespread across the Panhandles.

- Thunderstorms across the southcentral and eastern Panhandles on Thursday, with wind and dry lightning induced fire starts as the main concerns.

- Daily thunderstorm chances across the western/northwestern Panhandles through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue on Wednesday, as the upper-level high pressure begins its propagation to the southeast. On the backside of a weak surface low pressure system, isolated showers are possible across the western Panhandles this afternoon into evening. Overnight lows are not expected to provide much assistance in the eastern Panhandles, only reaching the mid- to upper-70's.

Thursday, we see the return of slight upper-level support. A diffuse moisture boundary sets up across the central and eastern Panhandles, which is acting as the forcing mechanism for storms tomorrow. These thunderstorms pose the risk for strong wind gusts, with DCAPE ranging from 1500-1700 J/kg and inverted-V forecast soundings. While storm intensity/coverage continues to be called into question with recent CAM runs due to dry air, H700 ThetaE slightly favors the southeast/east as well as sufficient low-level lapse rates supporting storm initialization. With large dewpoint depressions at the surface and very little shear, precipitation is expected to be restricted to the cores of any storms. This raises concerns about lightning induced fire starts across the eastern Panhandles with any CG strikes away from precipitation cores. Although sustained wind speeds and gusts will not enhance fire weather conditions tomorrow, any gusts stemming from convection/outflow could spread lightning induced fires quickly and erratically. There are also PoP chances (20-30%) across the northwestern combined and central Oklahoma Panhandles tomorrow due to terrain induced thunderstorms progressing ENE from NM. DCAPE is lower in this environment (~1300 J/kg), so the wind threat may be slightly lower, but not off the table. The real question in this area is forcing and storm coverage, as CAM's have the best development north/northwest of the Panhandles.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Beginning Friday, we see the weather pattern shift as the upper- level high establishes itself in the southeast US. The anticyclonic rotation will circulate dry air into the southeastern half of the combined Panhandles, stifling PoP chances. However, upper-level support from shortwave perturbations on the western periphery of the upper-level high (PVA and upper level divergence) will establish a pattern of increased PoP chances in the western/northwestern Panhandles through the weekend. There is still the question of intensity and spatial coverage, as long-range models do not have the spatial resolution to clarify this yet. However, a persistent signal of PoP chances have been in this area throughout the week, which is increasing confidence as we get closer to the event window.

Past the weekend PoP chances, hot and dry conditions are expected to return due to the retrograding of the upper-kllevel high back to the west and over the Panhandles. The end of the forecast period shows upper-level flow flattening out over the central US, which could in turn pull the jet closer to the southern plains, but this signal is too far out for much confidence.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR condition are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will remain predominantly out of the south, turning slightly westerly through the early morning hours at both KGUY and KDHT. Possibility of LLWS around 08Z at KAMA, but confidence is low at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.