textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening and some of them may be severe with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for today across the east - more widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely Sunday and Monday.

- Hot temperatures this weekend may lead to heat illnesses, especially at Palo Duro Canyon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The main axis of an upper level ridge will move off to the east on Thursday but the LLTR will remain in place over the Panhandles. H850 temperatures are forecast to warm up into the lower 30s Celsius which will lead to widespread upper 90s to just over 100 degrees for highs. Mid level moisture will remain in place on Thursday and with convective temperatures being achieved, showers or storms are expected to form again. This time, synoptic support looks to occur as a shortwave trough moves over the southern High Plains. Convection is expected to be more widespread during the afternoon into the evening hours as it moves west to east across the region. Given the very dry low levels, DCAPE values will be very comparable to what they were today and with the showers and storms having a faster forward progression, it may be easier to get damaging wind gusts with any showers or storms that form. Anything that does form should move east of the area during the late evening. In addition to the thunderstorm threat, elevated to critical fire weather is expected.

The LLTR will continue to be over the Panhandles on Friday and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer during peak heating. A Heat Advisory may be needed for Palo Duro Canyon due to very hot temperatures approaching 105 degrees on that afternoon. Right now, dry conditions are forecast on Friday afternoon into the evening as the axis of higher mid level moisture will not be over the CWA. The wind will be light on Friday so fire weather conditions are not expected.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Hot and mostly dry conditions are almost certain across the Panhandles this weekend. Zonal flow aloft is forecast to prevail during this time frame and low level southerly to southwesterly winds will continue to advect warmer air across the region. A fairly quiet weather day is forecast on Saturday due to light wind and dry conditions. Cannot completely rule out a shower or storm forming over or just north of the OK Panhandle during the evening, but the higher chances will be in KS. Sunday is shaping up to be a much more active weather day due to potential severe storms and potentially widespread fire weather. Surface winds will increase as a low level jet remains in place during the day leading to sustained southwest wind of 20-30 mph. The max gust potential does not appear to be much higher than 40-45 mph since there are no mid level jet streaks moving over the southern High Plains. Very dry conditions will move in leading to critical fire weather for most locations. Storm chances remain across the east on Sunday evening but will be highly dependent upon mid level moisture moving in, which may not make it in time. If any storms do form, they could be severe.

Regarding the upper level trough that will dig south late this weekend into early next week, the overall trend has been towards the trough not digging as far south as previously forecast. A cold front is still expected to move south across the Plains on Monday and may be south of the Panhandles by Monday evening. Breezy to gusty wind is expected once again with widespread critical fire weather once again. Timing varies tremendously in the model guidance suite, with some models keeping the front in KS and others having it south of the CWA by the early evening. If the front is south of the area, the storm threat will be pretty much gone. Severe storms will be possible if anything does develop across the Panhandles. The front should be south of the area by Tuesday morning leading to cooler temperatures into the middle of next week along with continued dry conditions.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. VCTS will be possible at all TAf sites, in particular KAMA roughly between 21Z and 00Z. Erratic winds will be possible if a thunderstorm moves over TAF site. Winds will generally be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Elevated to very low end critical fire weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon into this evening across the Panhandles. The strongest sustained wind and wind gusts are expected across the east where the very low end critical fire weather threat may arise. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the low to mid teens during this time frame. Hot temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the 90s.

Widespread critical fire weather is expected on Sunday and Monday due to increased wind and very dry conditions. The sustained wind speeds on these days may be upwards of 20-30 mph with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. Very hot conditions are expected with high temperatures in the 90s to just over 100.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-009-010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.