textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- A series of mainly dry weather system will pass across the panhandle this week bringing windy weather that can make travel difficult and the skies hazy.

- Elevated to critical fire conditions are expected across the panhandles for each day this week which allows for easier fire starts and rapid fire spread.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

See fire weather section for detail on the expected upcoming elevated to critical fire weather days.

A weather system is currently swinging eastward across the desert southwest for both today and Tuesday. This is keeping a southwest flow across the southern Rockies and southern plains for both days. The strength of this flow will be increasing over the courses of both days due to the approach of the weather system. This flow is causing a lee trough east of the front range of the rockies which is providing a further boost in strength to the expected winds. What that all means for the panhandles is that both Monday and Tuesday will be windy days that will blow in ample warm and dry air from the desert southwest. While both days will be windy it does look like Tuesday will see the stronger overall winds. So for today we can expect winds to be gusting in the 30s and 40s mph with occasional 50s mph gusts. While Tuesday will be mainly in the 40s to 50s mph range for gusts. Such winds can make travel difficult especially for high profile vehicles. Further these winds will be capable of lofting dust that can lead to hazy skies, but these are unlikely to cause meaningful visibility reductions. There will be little in the way of moisture across the panhandles so the skies will be mainly sunny. This combined with the downsloping southwest winds will keep the temperatures warm with highs mainly in the 80s. What little moisture we have for today can still cause a few isolated virga showers that can create areas of localized stronger wind gusts. This will be mainly confined to the western panhandles for this afternoon. There can be an exception of the dry conditions for the far southeast Texas panhandle Tuesday afternoon. There is a low chance a little moisture will manage to push into that region to allow for the development of rain showers and thunderstorms. Still even if these manage to form they would most likely be high based and produce more wind than any rainfall. Once again there is going to be elevated to critical fire weather conditions so see the fire weather section for more details.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Wednesday the weather system from earlier in the week will have a high chance of departing off to the east. Off to the west another weather system will have a high chance of forming during this time. This would put the southern plains in between the two weather system giving a brief window of weaker westerly winds. Still these west winds will keep pushing in dry air across the panhandles keeping elevated fire weather conditions based on the dryness alone.

Thursday and Friday the weather system swings southeasterly across the intermountain west towards the Great Plains. This has a high chance of making the weather system the dominate weather feature across the southern plains during this time. The passage of this weather system will echo the weather system from earlier in the week by setting up a dry southwest flow across the southern plains. This has a high chance of causing strong and gusty southwest winds across the panhandles which will be coupled with very dry air. This would lead to another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles for both days. There is a low chance that some moisture would arrive in the far eastern panhandles for Friday. This would limit some of the fire weather concerns for this area if it does materialize. This would then bring the downside of afternoon dry line thunderstorms that could be strong.

Saturday the weather system has a moderate chance of ejecting out of the intermountain west and mover across the Great Plains. In doing so it would pass a cold front north to south across the panhandles most likely early Saturday. This would cause cooler air to stream in generally leading to cooler temperatures across the panhandles. If cold enough air arrives then the panhandles can see near to or freezing overnight temperatures. This can start as early as Saturday morning for the northern panhandles depending on just how fast the cold front arrives. Then there is a moderate chance for freezing to frost conditions will be fairly widespread across the panhandles for Saturday night. Alas there is a high chance that the cold front will be dry with no additional moisture arriving in the panhandles. This would keep the specter of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles for the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. The winds have weakened for the overnight hours at all terminals. However this will setup speed low level wind shear at all terminals tonight. The wind shear will come to an end during the mid morning hours of Monday. The winds will then become strong and gusty again for the later morning through evening hours of Monday. The winds will remain out of the southwest to west southwest now through all of Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

While the panhandles has had recent rainfall the dry and windy conditions of Sunday have helped to dry the panhandles out again. This was readily seen with the quick spreading of the Horny Toad Fire Sunday afternoon. Today will have widespread strong and gusty southwest winds. The direction of the winds will remain fairly steady through today. Today the sustained winds will be 20s to 30s mph range with the the gusts in the 30s to 40s mph range. Occasional gusts up to 50 mph cannot be ruled out for this afternoon. This is bringing in much drier air from NM that will plummet the today's min RH down to 9% to 15%. This is creating widespread critical fire weather conditions with RFTI's in the 5 to 7 range. To further throw a wrench on todays fire weather conditions there is a low chance for high based showers that can lead to localized stronger wind gusts. This can create pockets of higher RFTI and brings the threat of more erratic wind gusts.

Tuesday will see broadly the same windy and dry conditions as today across the whole of the panhandles. The winds will stay out of the southwest through Tuesday and be overall a bit stronger than today. This will see the sustained winds mainly in the 30s mph range and gusts in the 40s to 50s mph. This will see the RFTI's in the 5 to 7 range across much of the panhandles.

So for both today and Tuesday the weather conditions will be ripe to allow for easy fire starts and rapid spread of any fire that does manage to start.

What fuels that are still moist from the previous rains will most likely quickly dry out with such sustained dry and windy conditions over the coming days. This can make the expected later week elevated to critical fire conditions that much worse.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003.