textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon across the northwest due to breezy winds and dry conditions.

- A cold front will lead to much cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Morning wind chill values on Monday and Tuesday could be in the single digits.

- Warmer, near to slightly above average, temperatures are expected to return Tuesday through the rest of the work week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Another record breaking day is in store for this afternoon for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. In fact, as of the time of this writing, the record high at Amarillo has already been tied for December 27 with a current temperature of 72 degrees. The abnormally warm temperatures are aided by a stubborn high pressure ridge that has refused to weaken or move away from the southern US. At the surface, the warmer temperatures are also being caused by breezy downsloping winds and very dry conditions. The strongest winds this afternoon are forecast to be across the northwestern Panhandles, closer to the leeside low that has developed across southeastern Colorado. Even though relative humidity values should remain around or above 20 percent, the stronger winds will lead to some elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.

Wind should remain somewhat breezy through the overnight hours as the surface low treks off to the east into Kansas. This will also lead to overnight lows staying on the warmer side, except for those areas that will find themselves behind a cold front by sunrise on Sunday morning. Speaking of which, a cold front will be racing across the Plains tonight into Sunday morning and should be south of the Panhandles by mid to late morning. Much colder air will move down the Plains, which is aided by a H500 trough with the low pressure centered over the Dakotas by mid day on Sunday. High temperatures will occur in the morning before the colder air moves in and leads to decreasing temperatures through the remainder of the day. Strong northerly winds are also expected behind the front and wind gusts may be as high as 50 mph and certainly cannot count out some isolated stronger gusts. Additionally, cannot rule out some flurries or sprinkles behind the front before low level dry air moves in later Sunday morning. Winds will decrease going into Sunday evening and moreso during the night, but with lows dropping into the teens, wind chill values will also crater into the single digits heading into Monday morning.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

A broad scale trough will still be in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS on Monday morning with an H500 low located over the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario. The cold air mass will remain in place during the day and high temperatures are actually forecast to be below average for a change in the lower 40s. Monday night wind chill values will be cool in the teens to single digits even though winds are expected to only be around 10 mph or less. Unfortunately, the cold air will not stick around for long as northwest flow develops on Tuesday into Wednesday which will lead to some warmer air advecting back in over the Panhandles. The latest forecast guidance keeps an upper level ridge axis to the west of the CWA, so temperatures will increase through the rest of the work week into the 50s and 60s, but highs in the 70s or higher like we have been seeing appears quite unlikely at this point. Dry conditions will persist given this upper level pattern but thankfully winds appear to also remain light during this time frame.

Muscha

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

VFR conditions are currently expected through the next 24 hours, though a brief period of MVFR ceilings at Guymon cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a potent cold front will move in tonight and there will be strong northerly winds behind the front throughout the day on Sunday.

Vanden Bosch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.