textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- High fire risk eastern panhandles with elevated fire concerns elsewhere. - Heat concerns will continue today for the eastern Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon.

- Scattered thunderstorms in the central to eastern Panhandles today. There is a low risk for severe storms with the primary concern being strong damaging winds.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

IR satellite imagery this evening along with evening upper air analysis showing the mid level high pressure over the eastern Gulf extending back to the northwest into portions of the southern plains. At the surface a 995mb low pressure was located just southeast of PUB with a well defined frontal boundary across I-70 in KS and a surface trough extending southward into far eastern New Mexico. 850Mb temps this evening were the hottest from the northern TX Panhandle into southeast CO with 850 temps of 32-34C. A couple of small isolated showers and tstms developed in the heat of the day over west TX and out of one of the small showers there was a report of 60mph winds....indicative of this inverted V environment with 40-50 deg dwpt depressions over west TX this evening.

With slightly lower mid level heights on Thursday sct tstms are a possibility in the afternoon as convective temps are reached. CAMS are showing tstms forming by mid aftn from the far eastern panhandles back to the southwest into west TX. With a similar environment to Wednesday, there could be isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Another concern would be with the dry conditions that lightning could start a fire in our eastern Panhandles, which has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Daily precipitation chances will primarily be in the northwestern portion of our area through the weekend with medium chances 40-50% in Cimarron county and Dallam County. High temperatures will continue to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s through the weekend although they will be a few degrees cooler than what they were on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Precipitation chances will begin to wane by the end of the weekend in the northwest as the upper high pressure builds back into the southern plains. This will allow temps to start to slowly rise again with many areas getting back to around 100 or even the low 100s. The evening GFS model is wanting to show a shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest entering the plains by mid to late week which may lead to an increase in pcpn chances and somewhat cooler temps. Will see if this trend continues in future model runs.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Breezy south to southwest winds 12-17kts gusting 20 to 30kts will be the main story for the TAF period, with a low chance of thunderstorms at KGUY toward the end of the TAF period. Will not rule out other sites getting a storm either, but too low for PROB30 notation at this time. Other thing to note would be some LLWS at KAMA overnight tonight out of the south southwest around 40 to 50kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Given the prolonged drought over the Panhandles due to limited rainfall and extensive heat on a daily basis for nearly a month straight, we find the ERC's across the Panhandles are pretty much above the 90th percentile, and in several areas we are actually exceeding the climatological maximum for this time of year. Given that setup and winds in the 15 to 20 mph range, we will continue the elevated Fire Weather conditions for the entire Panhandles. The difference for today is that we are a little closer to that 20 mph wind which "could" bump that RFTI up from a 1-2, to a 3-4 which would certainly support an RFW. An added factor to our conditions is the medium chance 30-40% of storms this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may be very small in nature with a lot of lightning outside of the main thunderstorm core, this could result in abundant dry lightning strikes over an area that has fuels that are extremely dry, leading to the potential for fires to start from lightning. These storms could also have very erratic strong damaging wind gusts too, and that would be very concerning near any fires. As we move later into the forecast period we'll have localized elevated Fire Weather just due to the nature of how dry it's been.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010- 014-015-019-020-317.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-018>020.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.