textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Cooler temperatures and potentially heavy moisture is expected this weekend. Monitoring for a potential flood threat as well.(At least a 15% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point)

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A cooler yet mild day today across the Panhandles as cloud cover starts to pick up ahead of the next approaching weather system. For the most part the showers and localized storms will be isolated to the far northwest Panhandles. And that's set to ramp up here after 7pm this evening. This will be mainly areas west of Boise City to Dalhart, with all other areas on the dry side for the evening. After midnight that will expand to most of the western stack of counties with Deaf Smith being more just the far west. By early Saturday morning not much will change with the overall rain chances for the day as the system kind of stalls out near the Four Corners, but will not rule out some localized showers breaking just east of the county lines. So that does put Amarillo in a 10-15% chance for a shower in the afternoon on Saturday. By evening that drops down to about 5% as the instability aspect will be missing and most of the moisture plume will still be further west. That being said it will still slowly track east and by midnight those chances of rain will begin to pick up overnight into Sunday morning.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Sunday morning is showing higher pops, but the overall soundings do indicate that it may be some low clouds over the Panhandles and perhaps just some drizzle with a few pockets of showers embedded. By late morning we may have some clearing and thats where scattered showers/storms will be in play. But it looks to be later in the evening now on Sunday when the more expansive cover of showers/storms will occur. Latest NBM probs of over an inch really start to drop off, while still on the higher side, outside of the northwest Panhandles. And updated deterministic amounts outside of the northwest Panhandles for this event are more in the 0.25-0.5" range. Not to say that areas couldn't get over an inch, but it's not as favored as previous forecasts. We'll still keep high chances of precipitation going through Monday and have it drop off into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 60s to near 70, and then we should be dry and back in the 70s by Wednesday. Thursday we'll keep an eye on as there's potentially another weather system coming in from the southwest that could bring out next chance of showers and storms to at least the southern Panhandles.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds mainly out of the south in the 15-20kt range with gusts up to 30kts possible through about 00-03z. Thereafter winds will be back down in the 10-15kt range for the remainder of the TAF period. At this time KDHT has the best chance for precipitation. Right now holding off on any PROB30s, but they may need to start being noted after 09z tonight if the moisture plume looks to be over the terminal. Thunder not expected tonight but rain may still bring categories down to at least MVFR, so we'll keep an eye on that.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.