textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Widespread high temperatures of 100-105 degrees expected throughout most of the coming work week.

- Monitoring a potential shift in the pattern that could bring storm chances to the western Panhandles Friday and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Very warm temperatures and continued very low chances (~10% chance) of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring the far western Panhandles, closest to the New Mexico stateline throughout the short term forecast period. A gradual shift to the southeastern CONUS of the broad H500 anti-cyclonic system with anemic flow will dictate the weather pattern. Storms should develop each day through mid-week along the NM high terrain and with aforementioned mid-level flow, will struggle to reach the Panhandles. But cannot completely rule out rain chances overall. With the center of the H500 High moving southeast over the Panhandle, large scale UL subsidence, coupled with decent H850 WAA entering the Panhandles, very warm temperatures expected to continue. In particular for Tuesday, heat headlines return for portions of the eastern and northeastern combined Panhandles, along with Palo Duro Canyon. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from 100-107 degrees across all of the Panhandles, with similar temperatures expected on Wednesday, perhaps a degree or two "cooler" in some locations.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The main H500 anti-cylonic system as seen by the latest global model data shows a decent moisture transport advecting moisture from the Gulf of America into the High Plains on the western periphery of mid level High pressure system. This should bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening during peak diurnal heating. Where the most favorable moisture axis sets up will be key to the highest POP chances overall. Currently favoring the western Panhandles, but will watch and update forecast accordingly as we get closer to the end of the week into the weekend for those rain chances. High temperatures will remain above average for mid August.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with southerly winds up to 20 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010-015-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.