textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- There is a low chances for severe thunderstorms today that can produce large hail, damaging winds, tornados, and torrential rainfall.

- Further daily chance of thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday. There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. - Presence of high amounts of moisture today through Sunday may lead to localized flooding in the Panhandles from the thunderstorms. - Potential for widespread hot conditions to return Wednesday with triple digits highs returning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A weather system continues to impact the southern plains for both today and Saturday. Today the weather system is causing mainly a west to east flow across the panhandles. This afternoon generally sunny conditions is leading to ample daytime heating across the panhandles. This is causing the environment to become unstable with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/Kg with little in the way of suppression. Shear will be present with values generally ranging from 20 to 40 kt across much of the panhandles. This means the atmosphere is primed for thunderstorms and is fully capable of supporting strong to severe thunderstorms. What these storms need is a trigger to get them started in the first place and that is a bit harder to find. For the earlier to mid afternoon the biggest trigger is an outflow boundary pushing westward from OK proper. It is still uncertain if this will be sufficient to get thunderstorms going but if it did it would be mainly in the southeastern Texas panhandle. If it does manage to get storms going then these storms will be in a prime environment to become supercells. These will be capable of all hazards of large hail, damaging winds, tornados, and torrential rain. However the chances of this occurring remains very low as this trigger mechanism is weak. The more likely trigger will come later this afternoon and more so this evening and overnight in the form of a small weather system. This weather system will most likely flair thunderstorms in the northwestern panhandles. These initially may start off as more individual storms that will allow for supercells. These storms will be capable of producing all hazards of large hail, damaging winds, tornados, and torrential rainfall. Then the thunderstorms will likely congeal into a meso convective system/squall line which will move east across the rest of the panhandles. This phase of this system will have damaging winds and torrential rainfall as the main threats with lesser threat for large hail and tornados. This line of storms will most likely impact the northern half of the panhandles with a lesser chance for the southern half of the panhandles. The line of storms will most likely come to an end during the early overnight hours as it approaches OK proper. During the overnight hours there is a low chance for high bases thunderstorms to occur behind the squall line system. All the convection that does occur should cease by the mid morning hours of Saturday. The moisture is high today so any thunderstorms that does form will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall that can lead to flash flooding. Since this can occur during the overnight hours flooding can be harder to see. So be sure not to drive across any flooded roads as the water can be deep or have destroyed the road. Trucks make for very poor boats.

Saturday will see southerly winds bring in much warmer air across the panhandles leading to an increase in the temperatures. This will see highs in the 90s to even 100s across the panhandles. This heat will be combined with humid conditions which will bring a heat illness risk to our normal hot areas such as Palo Duro Canyon. Then later in the afternoon and evening the weather system will move a cold front across the panhandles. Along this front a trough will move west to east across the panhandles. What this will do is spark up thunderstorms in the western panhandles during the afternoon hours. These would then most likely form into a meso convective system or squall line which will then pass west to east across the panhandles. Once the front pushes further to the south this line of storms will combine with it and push to the southeast. This transition in storm motion is most favorable to occur in the eastern panhandles. Now this is a complicated situation so how exactly it can play out is still in flux and will likely shift with future forecast. Regardless, thunderstorms Saturday afternoon will have a favorable environment consisting of 2000 to 3000 J/Kg and shear of 20 to 30 kt. This will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to form with damaging winds and large hail being the main threat. This round of storms will most likely push south of the panhandles and come to an end during the later evening hours. A further round of nocturnal rain showers and thunderstorms has a medium chance of forming during the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday. The environment for these storms will be weaker compared to the afternoon storms, but there will still be a low chance for severe thunderstorms. High moisture will be over the panhandles during this time which will allow any thunderstorm to produce heavy rainfall. This has a low chance to cause flash flooding anywhere in the panhandles. This threat can be higher with the overnight storms as these will have little in the way of motion prolonging any subsequent rainfall over an area. So once again do not drive into flood waters as cars and truck dont float but sink.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The weather system continues to impact the southern plains Sunday through Tuesday by causing a northwest flow regime across the region. This pattern will likely keep some moisture across the southern plains through this time frame even if it is diminished compared to last week. The northwest flow will allow for small weather system to pass across the panhandles and utilize that moisture to spark of rain showers and thunderstorms. This means that each day has a low to medium chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. These storms can occur through the whole of the day including the overnight hours with timing depending wholly on when the small weather system pass through. Come Wednesday the weather system pushes off with a high pressure system building into the southern plains. This will greatly decrease the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will leading to an increase in the heat. This will see the highs increase back into the 90s and 100s. The hottest spots may get hot enough that heat illness can be a threat. These temperatures have the potential to continue into Thursday. Then going into next weekend there is already hints for the high pressure system to break down with further weather system arriving in the panhandles. This has the potential of bringing further rain showers and thunderstorms back to the panhandles.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles today. Currently there is VFR conditions at all terminals that will persist until later this afternoon. Then thunderstorms will form in the western panhandles and move eastward across the panhandles. These are most likely to impact KDHT and KGUY with a lesser chance for KAMA. There is a low chance for these storms to become strong to severe capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, tornados, and torrential rainfall. These storms will last through the evening and into the overnight hours before they cease. After there passage there is a low chance for low clouds or even fog to linger mainly in the northern panhandles. These low clouds or fog will be capable of producing down to IFR conditions until sunrise of Saturday. The chances for this occurring at any terminal is low enough that they will not be reflected within the current TAFs. Further rain showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for Saturday, but this outside the current TAF time frame.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ317.

OK...None.