textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

-Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight, where some storms could be severe.

-Potential for temperatures at or above 105 degrees for PDC and some other areas this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A residual MCV this morning from the latest 18Z obs that produced over an inch of rainfall for the eastern TX Panhandle from the overnight period has finally dissipated and shifted south into the Texas South Plains. In the wake of the MCV, localized subsidence showing residual rainfall has quickly dissipated. Should remain mostly dry for the eastern Panhandles for the remainder of today. Meanwhile for the central and western Panhandles, especially for areas closer to the NM stateline, main anti-cyclonic steering flow around the H500 high will navigate storms that develop off the NM high terrain towards the Panhandles. Any strong outflow/cold pool from decaying storms will also increase chances for storms reaching the Panhandles before sunset. Further sfc features to note is an outflow boundary moving west across the SW TX Panhandle, which could help initialize perhaps some additional convection. Also noting on the latest 18Z RAOB data for KAMA that abundant CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg and effective shear around 30 kts is currently being underperformed by the latest RAP/HRRR/RRFS guidance. Especially if storms can tap environment above H750 for best ingredients. The environment would support established convection from NM that reaches the Panhandles to support storms to produce some hail and damaging wind gusts. The anemic shear to our west may limit forward propagation of mountain convection into our area, but will have to watch trends closely. By overnight tonight, linear complex of storms could progress east as far as a line from Guymon to Amarillo where slow moving/training storms could also produce localized flooding concerns with PWAT values around 1.2-1.3". By Friday morning, activity should gradually dissipate from any leftover activity.

Periphery thunderstorm activity from the H500 high will be possible for the far western Panhandles Friday afternoon and Friday evening, but chances remain low at this time. High temperatures will range from mid 90s to 100-102 range.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

High temperatures at or over 100 degrees with dry conditions are expected through the coming weekend and into early next week. Rain chances from monsoon pattern will likely return for the NW Panhandles next week as well. Will have to watch PDC and portions of areas off the Caprock in particular for potential heat headlines with max temps at or above 105.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening to slightly after Midnight for Dalhart, but still fairly low confidence and uncertainty about a more precise timing warrants a PROB30 group at this time. There is a very low chance for thunderstorms to impact Amarillo late tonight, but confidence is too low to include mentions in the TAFs at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.