textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Low potential for thunderstorms Monday afternoon along a dryline in the northeastern panhandles, Low chance for severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of this week with the potential for heat illnesses if proper precautions are not taken for those that are doing activities outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A ridge of higher pressure is building across the southern plains today with it remaining across the region through Monday. This will bring southwesterly to southerly winds across the panhandles that will bring in generally drier and warmer air. Further heating will be provided by the subsidence of the high pressure and ample sunlight of a full summer sun. All of this is causing the much higher temperatures across the panhandles today with highs in the 90s to 100s. Still the ridge of high pressure is not strong enough to fully suppress all chances of thunderstorms. A tiny trough looks to be riding the outer edge of the high pressure and can move across the northwestern panhandles. This coupled with the hot conditions can provide sufficient lift to cause an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon in the northwestern panhandles. Still the chance for such a storm are very low, so it is far safer to bet against any rain for today.

Monday the high pressure continues to cause hot conditions across the panhandles with the highs remaining in the 90s to 100s. Overall the heat will increase by a few degrees over what the highs are for today with the hottest areas reaching past 105. This brings an increased risk of heat illness for the hottest areas such as Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley. Due to this threat a Heat Advisory has been issued for these regions. It is encouraged to drink plenty of fluids and take cooling breaks if you are outdoors during this heat. During the afternoon hours of Monday a dryline will most likely setup in the SW to NE fashion across the central to eastern panhandles. This feature coupled with the ample daytime heat has a low chance of being able to overcome the suppression of the ridge sparking off afternoon thunderstorms. If the thunderstorms do manage to form they will be favorable environment for storm growth and support a low chance for severe weather. The CAPE available ranges from 2500-4000 J/kg which will allow for very potent updrafts that can support large hail formation. The big detractor is the lack of shear which means the storms will struggle to become organized. What this means is that the thunderstorms may form quickly and strongly only to then choke its own updraft with its rain. To sum up all of this the most likely situation is that no thunderstorms occur with the suppression of the ridge winning out. Then even if thunderstorms form most will most likely be vertically stacked and wont be able to sustain an updraft for long. This leaves the low chance for a thunderstorm to become strong to severe with its main threats being large hail and then damaging winds when it collapses.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The ridge of high pressure remains over the panhandles through Wednesday but will be actively departing to the east. This will continue the hot temperatures across the panhandles for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. The hottest spots of Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley will still most likely reach upwards of 105. This would continue the threat for heat illness through the midweek and thus may require a Heat Advisory. Overall it seems likely that Wednesday will be the hottest day of this heat wave. With such heat remaining across the panhandles there remains a low chance that it will form an afternoon thunderstorm.

Come Thursday a trough from the northwestern CONUS replaces the ridge of high pressure as the dominate weather feature across the southern plains. The departure of the higher pressure will serve to lessen some of the heating over the panhandles. This will allow for a small dip in the temperatures but the highs will most likely still be in the 90s to 100s. It would just be that the risk for heat illness will drop making it less likely for a Heat Advisory for the later portions of the week. The arrival of the weather system opens up the chance that more moisture and unstable conditions can work its way back across the panhandles. If this occur then the end of the week can see an uptick in the chances for afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a very low chance for afternoon thunderstorms today mainly towards the northwestern panhandles. The chances of this impacting KDHT are too low to be reflected in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise winds will be gusty during the daytime and weak during the overnight hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ008>010-317.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.