textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Extreme Fire Weather conditions likely both Sunday and Monday.

- Chances for thunderstorms in the eastern Panhandles both Sunday and Monday.

- Non-severe rain chances beginning as early as Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A Cu field that was in place along the dryline has dissipated as the dryline begins its retreat west overnight. Tonight, relative humidity recoveries split the CWA from the SW corner (Deaf Smith) to the NE corner (Beaver) of the CWA, with better recoveries in the southeast (up to 80%) and poor recoveries in the northwest (around 20%). Recent CAM runs have shown the dryline pushing a bit further west, which makes sense considering how early in the evening the retreat began. This may allow for beneficial RH recoveries to spread a bit further west than previously anticipated.

Sunday, upper-level support improves as a positively tilted trough digs into Nevada/Southern California. This trough will eject over the Rocky Mountains, re-establishing and deepening a lee-side surface low pressure center in eastern Colorado. The deepening of this low-pressure center will tighten the surrounding surface pressure gradient, which will in turn increase the wind field across the Panhandles. Sustained winds of 25-30 MPH gusting up to 40-45 MPH are likely to occur areawide. Accompanied by poor overnight RH recovery and minimum RHs between 5-10%, critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected for most of the CWA on Sunday. There is once again a small chance for thunderstorms to develop (15% chance) across the eastern Panhandles during the afternoon and evening hours. However, once again forcing is the main hindrance of the threat. Deep mixing will be required for convective initiation along the dryline, and lacking H700 ThetaE reinforces that. If a storm is able to initiate along the dryline, it could become severe before it exits the CWA to the east.

Although RH recovery looks slightly more favorable on Sunday night (with increased recovery in the NW CWA), much of the western TX Panhandle and central OK Panhandle will likely see limited recovery (up to 30%) overnight. While the low-pressure center may not be as deep on Monday, the Panhandles proximity and orientation to the low-pressure will likely increase winds in comparison to Sunday. Sustained winds of 30-35 MPH are likely in the northern Panhandles, falling to 25 MPH as you go further south in the CWA. Widespread gusts of 45-50 MPH are likely. Increasing winds and further dry conditions (minimum RHs of 5-10% across entire CWA) will mean further critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Monday. Thermodynamics look a bit better on Monday for storm development in the eastern Panhandles as the dryline pushes east, however, forcing is still the failure point. If a storm does initiate, it could pose a large hail threat in the eastern Panhandles, but initiation will be very conditional once again. Current guidance suggests that the cold front associated with this weekends system will push through the Panhandles on Monday night, likely after sunset. Although this will bring cooler temperatures and an increase in RH, it will bring gusty winds and a sudden wind shift from SSW to N, causing ongoing fires to behave erratically and possibly intensify.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A stable airmass will position itself over the Panhandles on Tuesday after the cold frontal passage on Monday night. Temperatures will come down on Tuesday, but bottom out on Wednesday and Thursday with highs likely not reaching out of the 60s (slightly warmer temperatures on Thursday for the southern CWA). Shortwave perturbations embedded in the larger scale flow could provide enough synoptic scale lift for showers through the mid-week next week. Severe threat for Tuesday and Wednesday is very low, with maybe a slight uptick for thunderstorm chances on Thursday after more unstable air has had the chance to build in from the south. But, with a SW wind shift not seen until Saturday, sub-severe precipitation is more likely. Temperatures will likely still be recovering from this system's cold front by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Dry conditions continue hold over the Panhandles, which will allow for VFR conditions to stay through the overnight. An approaching system should allow for upper-level winds to mix down to the terminals tonight, but brief periods of low-level wind shear can be present. By tomorrow a classic dry-line scenario should keep most terminals out of danger from thunderstorm development, but look for surface winds gusts upwards of 30 to 35kt as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

As of late tonight, present radar was seeing the dry-line retreat west back into the Panhandles with current CAMs seeing it finally coming to rest midway through Texas County and then proceeding to slant diagonally down into the far southwestern Texas Panhandles. The final placement of the dryline tonight will be critical as anything west of it will see very poor relative humidity recovery with values potentially starting as low as 10 percent Sunday morning. Moving into the late morning and early afternoon will see the dryline begin pushing eastwards with expectation to stop midway through our east most counties. Once again placement of this line is key as all areas west of this will look to see relative humidity values plummet into the single digits with areas possibly getting as low as 4 percent. Winds will also become a major factor tomorrow as the incoming upper-level trough will both deepen the present lee-side low and provide strong upper-level wind support. This combination will likely result in gusty southwesterly winds that can reach 20 to 25 mph with gusts upwards of 40 to 45 mph. At this time latest CAMs suggest that the strongest of these winds will be focused to our north where better placement of the upper-level jet will be. One thing that will need to be watched is the area around the dryline as thunderstorms activity could still initiate off the boundary resulting in more lightning started wildfires as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds.

Moving into the overnight does continue to see the potential for a weak cold front push in, and see the northern portions of the Panhandles shift to a more northerly direction through the late morning hours. At this time current CAMs have timing of this front entering the Oklahoma Panhandles as early as 1 to 2 AM Monday, but confidence is only moderate for such a timing. Either way, speeds do not look too impressive behind the front with most CAMs only calling for speeds around 10 to 15 mph. Instead this front will be more of a benefit as it gives the north much better relative humidity recovery for the night and early morning hours of Monday. Unfortunately, these conditions will not last long as Monday afternoon looks to repeat Sunday with dryline pushing back east and leaving most of the Panhandles in single digit relative humidity values that afternoon. Winds are also trending stronger for that afternoon with potential to see southwesterly to southerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts upwards of 50 mph. The strongest of these winds look to be mostly focused across the Eastern Panhandles, which could prove to be interesting depending on where the dryline decides to halt that afternoon. We will once again will need to watch the area around the dryline as thunderstorms activity could still initiate off the boundary resulting in more lightning started wildfires as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Otherwise, concerns will shift to the incoming cold front that night, which will likely bring northerly winds upwards of 15 to 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph throughout the overnight period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for OKZ001>003.