textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Warm, windy, and dry conditions today have prompted a Red Flag Warning to be issued for the southern and central Texas Panhandle this afternoon.

- A weather system has low chances to bring precipitation to the Panhandles Wednesday night through Friday, but higher chances for cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Fire weather concerns are at the forefront of the forecast today as we anticipate a warm, dry, and windy Monday. Through the day, strengthening southwest flow aloft will generate a surface low over SE Colorado, leaving a tighter pressure gradient over the central to southern Texas Panhandle. This is where winds will be strongest this afternoon, out of the west at 15-25 mph. A narrow jet at 850mb and 700mb with winds of 30-40 kts will help stronger gusts mix to the ground as temperatures warm into the 70s to low 80s. A majority of gusts will be in the 30-40 mph range, but there are 10-20% probabilities for rogue gusts >40 mph primarily along and south of the Canadian River Valley. These downsloping winds will advect lower dew points in the teens and 20s to the region, leading to minimum RH values as low as 10% in some spots. Fire weather conditions will be investigated further in the Fire Weather discussion.

Winds will stay slightly breezy into the overnight hours until a weak cold front arrives, shifting winds out of the northwest. Very modest cold air advection will ensue, keeping Tuesday's high temperatures in the 60s with relatively light winds (<10 mph). The next couple of nights will be on the mild side for the southern TX Panhandle, with many locations not dipping below 40 degrees. The northern Panhandles will be cooler but still well above average with lows around freezing.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

After a warm and breezy Wednesday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s, our attention shifts to late week into next week when we await a potential change of pace for the region's weather. By midweek, global models show a closed low taking shape off the Pacific coast, before trekking eastward over northern Mexico and lifting northeastward towards the Plains early Thursday. Latest indications are hinting that as this system opens up and ejects, it may pull a better swath of Pacific moisture slightly further north by Thursday (PWATs 0.50-1.00"). The bulk of large scale lift still appears to be tracking mostly south of our CWA, but if better dynamics or smaller perturbations are positioned favorably, scattered showers may materialize for more areas than just the SE TX Panhandle (20-40% POPs).

Thursday evening, a cold front will advance from the northwest, causing temperatures to drop, especially for the northwest combined Panhandles. Going into Friday morning, the cold core of the system may be positioned directly over the region with increasing northerly winds, leading to more widespread temperatures hovering near freezing. Modest moisture pooled behind the front combined with near/sub freezing temperatures could be enough to allow areas of snow or a rain-snow mix to develop through the day Friday, favoring the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle at this time (20-40% POPs). Any potential amounts are still up in the air, but probabilistic and ensemble outputs favor lighter snow amounts at this time, which makes sense considering the very marginal temperature profiles being forecast. Any shifts in the systems track or timing could greatly impact this forecast, along with temperature profiles needed for snow to develop. Models have flip flopped back and forth on the precip potential, lending lower confidence in this aspect of the forecast.

Once this system exits, the synoptic pattern is progged to become far more stagnate. Dry air will resume its grip over the region and precip chances disappear. Higher confidence lies in the fact that a return to closer to average temperatures is expected for the Panhandles Friday into next week (highs in the 40s & 50s, lows mainly in the 20s).

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Breezy winds are forecast overnight (10-20kts) but especially later this afternoon when they will increase at all sites. Strongest winds will be at KAMA, out of the west at 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts. Winds will be slightly lighter at KDHT, and lighter still at KGUY. Gusts will gradually subside towards the end of the period, although will remain breezy. VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hrs.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

At least elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across the combined Panhandles this afternoon, with more critical conditions across the southern to central Texas Panhandle. As previously mentioned, winds will be breezy out of the west at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph (10-20% chance for higher gusts). Relative humidity values in the low teens will be common place, with 20-50% chances for single digit RH values. There may be some spotty cloud cover to prevent winds from being quite as strong and RH values from being quite as low at times, but at least low-end critical fire weather conditions appear likely for the south and central Texas Panhandle regardless. These areas have dry enough fuels, so forecast RFTI values of 3 to 5 do suggest the environment will be conducive for fire starts and spread this afternoon. As a result, we have issued a Red Flag warning from 12 PM to 6 PM this afternoon.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ009>020- 317.

OK...None.