textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions persist Today.

- A cold front will arrive this evening bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Tuesday night and extending through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Hot, dry, and gusty conditions are solidly imposing their will on the Panhandles once again today, creating high-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. These details are investigated further in the fire weather forecast discussion.

A storm system traversing the central Plains today is responsible for our active weather today, and will continue pushing eastward through the overnight hours. As the base of this large trough passes over the region through this afternoon, a sharpening dry line will become rooted in the vicinity of the TX - OK state line. East of this feature, southeast winds are advecting higher dew points in the 60s while building strong instability of over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE. This environment would be extremely conducive for severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards (damaging, hail, & tornadoes), but it is uncertain if we will get any successful attempts at convective initiation in the far eastern Panhandles before the dry line fully mixes out of our CWA into western Oklahoma. Proximity to better synoptic support would give the far NE & SE Panhandles near Beaver/Lipscomb and Collingsworth counties respectively the better chances for storms, although the probability for development is still only about 15%.

As the system departs, a relatively strong cold front will drop southward over the region this evening, bringing breezy northerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph through the overnight hours (10-20% chance for a few rogue gusts >40 mph). This will finally provide improved moisture and cooler temperatures to mitigate fire weather concerns for the Panhandles by Tuesday. Winds will gradually settle to 10-15 mph later tomorrow with cooler highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s for most locations.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Is a pattern change truly on the way? Will rain chances finally pan out? Medium and long range weather models have been insisting for some time now that the onset of El Nino will provide increasing moisture opportunities for the high Plains during late May to early June. Now that we are knocking on the door of this time frame, models have insistingly held onto this hope for better rain chances over the next week or two. Ensemble projections depict multiple rounds of systems approaching the Panhandles beginning Wednesday and lasting into next week, with decent potential to pull improved moisture along with them. Many of these opportunities will likely only bring hit or miss showers and storms, but some locations could certainly get lucky with rain any given day during this stretch (15-30% POPs daily).

Wednesday - Thursday is currently the most promising window for storms, as southwest flow aloft settles atop the Plains and draws improved theta-e thanks to troughing over the western CONUS. Concerns exist that a localized dry slot may prevent moisture return from effectively spreading across the area Wednesday, but many models have additional moisture influx negating this issue later in the day. Highest confidence in storm development exists further west in the higher terrain of New Mexico and further south across the West TX Big Country, but some of this activity could spread north and east into the Panhandles if moisture is favorable. Thursday's rain chances would likely be conditional based on Wed night activity, but the synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged.

One bonus to the forecast pattern outside of rain chances, is the high likelihood of the return to near or below average temperatures to end the month. After the anomalously hot, windy, and dry stretch we've been in, the outlook of lighter winds, cooler temperatures, and higher humidity should provide an extremely welcomed reprieve from fire weather concerns.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Gusty southwest winds of 20-30 kts with gusts around 40 kts will persist through this afternoon-evening at all sites. These winds will likely kick up blowing dust, but are not expected to provide significant visibility reductions. A cold front will shift winds out of the north this evening through the end of the period, initially at 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts. Winds will settle down tomorrow morning through the end of the period. Mentions of LLWS may need to be included for tonight behind the front if confidence increases as we get closer. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are forecast at all sites.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1053 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

With extremely critical fire weather conditions still expected to materialize this afternoon and evening, the arguably greatest factor of concern lies with any existing fires and the arrival of a cold front to the region later this evening. This front dropped further south than models anticipated this morning, helping higher humidity and cooler temperatures linger across the NW and central Panhandles. Unfortunately, there are no favorable parameters for these conditions to linger through the day, and the front should easily retreat northward allowing drier air and southwest winds of 25-35 mph gusting up to 50 mph to take over the rest of this afternoon-evening.

The cold front will fully breach the Panhandles this evening, quickly shifting winds out of the north at 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 mph (10-20% chance for a few gusts >40 mph). Better moisture behind the front will help humidity values greatly improve overnight (60-90% RH), but the initial wind shift will pose a significant risk for any existing fires to spread rapidly southward. This front is currently projected to reach the OK Panhandle as early as 6-8 PM, the northern and central TX Panhandle as early as 8-10 PM, and the I- 40 corridor by 10 PM to midnight. We will monitor the timing of the front closely through the day.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.