textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Patchy fog is expected this morning, which could be locally dense leading to reduced visibilities.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances likely return Sunday night into Monday. Strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail will be possible.

- Winds on Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front may gust over 50 mph at times, favoring the northwest Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

After a cloudy, misty, and locally foggy start to the weekend, an overall quiet Saturday should be in store. Showers have mostly dissipated as the upper level system responsible for Friday's rain exits the region. This afternoon should be pleasant, with lingering clouds gradually clearing and highs in the 60s. Winds will be out of the south at 10-15 mph with slightly higher gusts. A tightening pressure gradient Sunday will help winds increase out of the south, sustained at 15-20 mph gusting up to 35 mph.

Forecast trends remain on an upward trajectory for storm chances Sunday night, as the next in our series of upper level troughs passes over the region. Ridging in between systems will give way to southwest flow, allowing for a nice surge of theta-e to be advected back to the Panhandles by the aforementioned breezy south winds. Models have become increasingly aggressive suggesting that vigorous lift with the trough's arrival should help generate a line of storms across the eastern Plains of New Mexico, that would reach the Panhandles late Sunday evening - overnight. Should this line of storms survive the trip, substantial wind shear is forecast to be in place (40-60 kts 0-6km), and should interact with continually improving moisture (1.0-1.5" PWATs & 60s dew points). Even though instability is still looking modest (MUCAPE 500-1500 J/kg), this may be enough to support organized updrafts within the line. Despite the line arriving overnight and daytime temperatures only reaching the 60s to low 70s, these storms could still be capable of producing strong/severe hail and wind gusts. Storm motions would be quite fast (east-northeast at 40-60 mph), which should limit the flash flooding threat but not completely negate it.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As the trough axis translates east of the Panhandles, a brief dry slot and stout 120kt upper level jet streak within northwest flow will dive over the region, allowing a strong cold front to push southward Monday night. This front will have a tightly packed pressure gradient behind it, along with decently stacked jet dynamics. While this supports cooler temperatures being advected to the Panhandles (highs in the 50s & 60s, lows in the 40s), it will also usher in strong wind gusts. Additional wrap around showers and dense cloud cover are expected behind the front as well, especially for the northern Panhandles (30-60% POPs). Even with these limiting factors, it is likely that northwest winds of 20-30 mph gusting up to 45 mph will continue through much of the day Monday into Tuesday. Favorable conditions behind the front could still help gusts as high as 50-60 mph mix down to the surface if everything comes together just right (favoring the northwest Panhandles), so be prepared for a blustery start to the work week.

Looking towards the middle of next week, models are in fair agreement that a closed low will translate across the Plains in the vicinity of the Panhandles. This system shouldn't equate to more rain chances thanks to the cold front eventually purging the region of any meaningful moisture. Temps should be near or below seasonal averages, with drier air mostly staying in place for a few days. Morning lows could dip into the 30s, but freezing conditions don't appear likely (mosquitoes across the Panhandles rejoice). Winds will thankfully diminish, spelling a recipe for some nice fall days. Looking at long range ensemble members shows that next weekend could be another window of active weather opportunities, but confidence remains low for now.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A weather system is departing the panhandles but ample low level moisture remains in place. This is currently causing low ceilings down to VLIFR. It is also causing misty to foggy conditions with light drizzle with MVFR visibilities. Conditions will improve going into the afternoon with VFR returning to all terminals. Tonight low level clouds can build back in with LIFR ceilings.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.