textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A cold front is bringing increased chances for storms to the area today through Thursday. Gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rainfall being the main hazards from the storms.

- Above average temperatures are expected to continue most days over the next week, but cold fronts could provide occassional heat relief.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The high pressure system across the southern plains is being pushed to the south as a weather system pushes into the region from the north. This is actively passing a cold front slowly across the panhandles that will then likely stall this morning. Where the front stall is key in determining exactly where the thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. The better environment for the storms will most likely be to the north of the cold frontal boundary. The reason for this is the mid level cooling will be greater to the north of the boundary leading to overall more unstable conditions. This allows the north of the boundary to have CAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/Kg while south of the boundary it is a more modest 500 to 1000 K/Kg. To compound this the axis of better moisture to fuel thunderstorms will also be to the north of the boundary as seen with Theta-E advection. North of the boundary precipitable water will be a 1.5 to 1.75 inches while south of the boundary has 1.1 to 1.25 inches. What all this boils down to is north of the cold frontal boundary the environment is both more unstable and has better moisture to fuel more extensive and stronger storm development. To the south of the boundary the environment has less instability and moisture to work with leading to less and weaker storms. So the big question is now where will the cold frontal boundary stall? Well, it most likely is going to do so in the southern Texas panhandle in a SW to NE fashion. This would initially leave the better thunderstorm environment across the central Texas panhandles and north into the Oklahoma panhandle. This is reflected in the medium (40-65%) chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across this region for this afternoon. South of the boundary chances start much lower at a low (10-25%) chance for rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The rain showers and thunderstorms will likely flair with daytime heating allowing for an early afternoon start time of around noon to 2 pm. In the northern environment there is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The main threat from such storms will be damaging wind gusts, although large hail cannot be ruled out. Further the high moisture will allow for heavy rainfall that can cause flooding mainly in the northern environment.

During the evening the cold front pick up in movement again pushing south opening the whole of the panhandles to a low to medium chance (20-60%) for rain showers and thunderstorms. Elevated instability associated with the weather system will allow the rain showers and thunderstorms to then persist through the overnight hours and into Thursday morning. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms during this time will be less with the weaker over instability coupled with a stable surface environment. However high moisture will still be present so the threat of heavy rainfall will remain. The darkness make in fact make the flooding threat higher due to it being harder to detect flooding at night. Then by later Thursday morning the rain shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to wane somewhat. This however is just a break in the activity as with further daytime heating an additional round of rain showers and thunderstorms has a low to medium (15-50%) chance of occurring across the panhandles. Moisture will still remain high across the panhandles allowing for continued heavy rainfall and the threat of flooding. An increase in instability with the heating will once again open the door for stronger storms to occur. The threat from such storms will most likely be strong downburst winds and large hail. During the evening the weather system pushes off to the northeast leading to a decrease in the instability and moisture. This will see the rain showers and thunderstorms activity dwindle and then finally cease during the overnight going into Friday morning. The passage of the weather system will bring a further benefit of cooler temperatures across the panhandles for Thursday. Still it will remain hotter than normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Friday, the departure of the weather system to the northeast allows the broad high pressure system across southern CONUS to build back across the southern plains. This will likely bring a small stint of hot and dry conditions to the panhandles with the potential for triple digit highs.

Come the weekend the high pressure starts to shift back out of the southern plains as a deepening large scale weather system pushes southeast across western CONUS. This action will allow for a few small scale weather system to pass across the southern plains during the weekend. The passage of these small scale system will bring a low (10-30%) chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to the panhandles. The overall quantity of moisture with these system is most likely to be low so the amount of rainfall during this time will also most likely be low. Even with the passage of the weather system it will most likely remain hot with highs in the 90s to low 100s.

The main weather system is most likely to push into the southern plains early next work week. This would bring more substantial moisture and instability to the panhandles. This will allow for a low to medium (20-50%) chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the whole of the panhandles. With the higher moisture more rainfall can occur during this time that has the potential for meaningful rain accumulations. The passage of the weather system will have a medium to high chance of bringing cooler temperatures to the panhandles.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The major exception will be during the passage of thunderstorms over a terminal. There is a medium chance for thunderstorms to impact all terminals this afternoon through this evening. There is a further low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong downburst winds. Moisture is very high which will allow any rain shower or thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall. It is this rainfall that can lead to MVFR to IFR conditions due to a fall in visibility. Outside of the storms a weak surface boundary moving across the panhandles will make for more variable wind directions.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.