textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Persistent high pressure will remain over the area, leading to continued above average temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach 105 degrees in some locations this week.

- Very low (20 percent or less) precipitation chances will linger for mainly the northwest combined Panhandles through midweek, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail for most locations.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

We begin the wee hours of the work week with weak returns on radar across the northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle. This activity has been developing along a subtle surface boundary and minor upper level perturbation over SE Colorado. Expect additional weak development to occur further across the north central combined Panhandles around sunrise, but any showers likely won't produce much rainfall. Once this activity clears, we transition back into an abnormally hot August afternoon. Highs are primarily forecast in the mid to upper 90s, with a handful of locations reaching triple digits.

High pressure aloft will further transition eastward over the Ozarks tomorrow, which will help regional temperatures lower by a measly degree or two (still mid 90s and triple digits). Breezy south- southwest winds of 10-20 mph will be in place both today and tomorrow as well. As in previous days, any appreciable moisture will only be present across the far northwest Panhandles, with 10-20% chances for stray weak showers/storms on the periphery of upper level high pressure.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Our seemingly endless stretch of abnormal heat still has no end in sight, as model trends continue to show upper level ridging dominating the synoptic pattern. Both deterministic and ensemble datasets depict high pressure being nudged eastward over the southeast CONUS through the week, and then morphing back on top of the Plains this weekend as persistent troughing settles atop the Pacific northwest. Moisture transport to the Panhandles will be scarce this week, while high temperatures steadily remain in the 90 to 105 range each day. If there are any better rain chances, models suggest mid week could see slightly improved potential as the jet stream sags closer to the Panhandles. However, this still only supports meager 10-20% POPs to far northwestern portions of the forecast area.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Wins will mostly be out of the south at 10-15kts, but a weak boundary will shift winds out of the northwest at KDHT and KGUY early this morning.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.