textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected to day for the majority of the Panhandles and again into early next week.

-Very warm temperatures with many locations at or above 100 degrees today through the coming weekend.

-Severe thunderstorm chances are possible for most of the Panhandles today,and perhaps the far eastern Panhandles this weekend.

-Potential for strong southwesterly winds and high wind gusts by Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

After an active day of high based dry thunderstorms on Friday, we may have a repeat with this activity for this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm evening should spread from west to east once again with high based thunderstorms of multi cell clusters being the main storm mode. In an environment of DCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg with an inverted-v vertical profile by peak diurnal heating, we can see damaging wind gusts once again with gusts peaking between 60-80 mph. Overall breezy winds will be most notable in the southern Texas Panhandle with the main H500 perturbation and its steep height gradient traversing east across the Texas South Plains as of the latest hi-res data coming in. Combined with low RH values , this will result in critical fire weather conditions for the majority of the TX Panhandle today and the western combined Panhandles for Saturday. Will also be monitoring more severe thunderstorm chances for the far eastern Panhandles for Saturday as well. High temperatures today will range from the mid 90s in the western Panhandles to 100-105 degrees for the eastern and southeastern TX Panhandle. More widespread highs of 100-106 temps for Saturday with mid to upper 90s for the far NW Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry and windy conditions expected for Sunday and Monday as the main H500 trough digs into the central Rockies with a series of perturbations moving through and just north of the Panhandles downstream. Will be watching for critical fire weather conditions these days as well Panhandles wide. Latest global model data trends is shifting the main H850-500 moisture transport axis to the east into western and central Oklahoma. Unfortunately, our rain chances should be shifting east as well. After hot temperatures well above average for Sunday and Monday, we should see a cold front move south into the Panhandles which should give us a break from the heat by mid week. Rain chances along and behind the front may also return towards the end of the long term forecast period. Highs on Tuesday through Thursday will be near to slightly below average for mid May.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the majority of the 12Z TAF period. The only exception would be for AMD to ongoing BLDU that may reduce vsbys throughout the day and/or TS that develop over a TAF sites resulting in erratic winds. Overall, winds will be variable at 5-15 kts for KDHT/KGUY. For KAMA, winds will be out of the southwest and west-southwest at 10-20 kts, with gusts near 30 kts, especially in the 17Z through 01-02Z window. Winds should then subside back to 5-15 kts towards the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for the majority of the Texas Panhandle. Max RFTI values will top out between 3-5 due to min RH values this afternoon as low as 7 percent and SW 20 ft winds of 15-20 mph. ERC percentile today will top out around the 90th percentile. Critical fire weather conditions are also expected for the western Panhandles along wit the southern Texas Panhandle on Saturday and all of the Panhandles Sunday and Monday. In particular for Sunday and Monday, a combination of breezy to strong SW winds and RH values as low as 4 percent with ERC percentile well above 90th percentile in many locations, max RFTI values may top at 8 for both days.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004>020-317.

OK...None.