textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

-Thunderstorms will be possible through Saturday, with locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible.

-Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon this afternoon as temperatures up to 105 degrees are expected.

-Above normal temperatures with very low precipitation chances (<10 percent chance) look to continue Sunday through Thursday

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

As the upper level trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest and a second low dives down over the northeast CONUS the upper ridge will begin to amplify over the central CONUS. This will transition the overall flow to a more southerly flow. Based on the position of the ridge with respect of the Panhandles, it really should only favor the western and central Panhandles today for isolated to scattered convection, but there's a low chance (10-20%) that we get storms in the east off the Caprock. Storms today will be high based with very little shear, as previous days. ML CAPE values will range in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with DCAPE values in the 1200-1600 J/kg range, suggesting some of these storms will be capable of strong wind gusts up to 55 mph. PWAT's in the 1.2-1.5" range will support moderate rain, but the scattered nature of the storms should limit any flooding concerns. However the last couple days we've had a few areas that have had multiple storms move over, and could pick up some localized flooding threats, but nothing worthy of an outlook due to high uncertainty that it will transpire. Saturday will be similar but with a bit more moisture available in the mid levels, but isolated to the western Panhandles up to about the Amarillo to Guymon line. And while the overall winds aloft are poor, there appears to be some forcing that will aid in the cluster of cells merging more into a line of storms in the late afternoon to early evening. Again, the highest chances are in the far west with a pretty steep drop off as you approach the Amarillo to Guymon line.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The pattern as we head into the weekend may start to be less favorable for more precipitation and continue the very warm/hot temperatures. While we may not top out in the mid 100s, we're still looking at high 90s to lower 100s in some areas, and for this to continue in September where normals are in upper 80s, it's still going to lead to heat impacts. Each day from Sunday through Thursday is now pretty much a carbon copy of each other with very little pops (5-15 percent range) to highs in the mid 90s to low 100s in the hot spots. There's a small glimmer of hope for Wednesday, as that's the day the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest attempts to track east over the north central CONUS, leading to a weak cold front across the northern Panhandle, and maybe the best chance at enhanced pops. But otherwise the extended looks to be above normal on temperatures and below normal on precipitation.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with the main concern today being isolated to scattered storms that could impact all terminals through the day. Confidence in timing is not high enough to go over PROB30 values, but could see the best timing to plan for prevailing storms to be in the 21-03z time frame, and that given how the storms could form just about anywhere some TAF sites could have an hour or two of lightning within 10 miles, as these are pulse storms, and new ones could develop nearby. Winds overall will be 5-15kts out of the south to southeast, and may gust up to 25kts at times.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.