textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Dry conditions look to hold through Friday with afternoon highs in the 60s to 70s.

- A new system is expected to move in this weekend resulting increase chances of showers and thunderstorms.

- More active weather is expected to follow next week that will increase chances of showers and breezy conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Present model agreement continues to see an upper-level ridge build across the Great Plains which will result in high pressure settling over the Panhandles for today. Look for conditions to stay dry with chance of precipitation below 5 percent. Meanwhile, temperatures will be slightly warmer with afternoon highs holding in the low to mid 70s. For Friday, present agreement continues to see the upper-level ridge hold resulting in another dry day for the Panhandles. However, present CAMs have been seeing a weak back door cold front scrape the Eastern Panhandles during the early morning hours of the day. While this front is not expected to have much impact to our winds or precipitation chances, it will allow us to funnel in some cooler air that will help regulate temperatures. As it stands, present expectations see afternoon highs for the day only reaching into the low to mid 60s with lows that morning dropping into the mid 30s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

For this weekend models have continued to trend towards our next chance at active weather with a trough moving across the Southwestern United States. Currently latest ensemble runs have been holding decent confidence in precipitation for the Panhandles with present NBM giving widespread chances ranging from 40 to 80 percent by Saturday afternoon. These chances will look to hold through Sunday as most models continue to see the system push through as moisture continues to wrap around the associated low. Unfortunately amounts with these showers has been trending on the lighter side with most model runs seeing totals of a few tenths to half an inch at best. Meanwhile, present mid-range models have also not been too enthused with our potential instability for the day, which has resulted in low confidence for strong thunderstorms being present. Regardless this activity does look to push off by next Monday, only for present model runs to see yet another system push in for Tuesday. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty present with this system as present ensembles are only giving the Panhandles around a 10 to 30 percent chance of seeing precipitation. Otherwise, look for cooler temperatures to hold with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to 60s, while overnight low drop into the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites under mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be out of the W/NW at 5-10 kts, before becoming light and variable towards the end of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.