textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Patchy fog for the Panhandles this morning and once again tomorrow morning. There is at least a 30 to 50 percent chance that some of the fog may be dense fog.

- Low chances for rain showers both today and tomorrow for portions of the Panhandles.

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend before cooling back down to near or below average next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Another cloudy and dreary morning is occurring across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Fog is definitely not as widespread as it was yesterday morning with only some patchy fog occurring across the Panhandles at the time of this writing. Light rain showers and drizzle are currently being observed across the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle with the rain showers moving east/northeast. These rain showers are supported by strong upper level lift provided by a trough moving over the region early this morning. Rain showers will move off to the east of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon. Additionally, low clouds will remain across portions of the east/northeast Panhandles today which will keep temperatures around or below average once again today.

Low clouds and patchy fog may return to the eastern Panhandles once again tonight into Friday morning. Latest 26/00z HREF probabilities for visibility of a half mile or less are around 30 to 50 percent for the eastern counties of the Panhandles for tomorrow morning. Another H500 trough should move across the Panhandles tonight into Friday morning which may generate some light rain showers over the northern Panhandles during this time frame. Confidence is not very high as many models do not generate any precipitation, but with all the moisture in the low levels the past few days, cannot rule out some light showers developing given the strong lift. The cloud cover should clear out a bit going into the afternoon hours, which should allow for better daytime heating than compared to the last few days. If cloud cover lingers around longer than currently forecast, the NBM high temperatures for tomorrow may be a few degrees too warm. Confidence is not high enough to lower highs for Friday at this point but even if they do get lowered, it will only be a few degrees. Heading into Friday night, some patchy fog may form across the far eastern Panhandles once again before westerly winds behind the Pacific front bring in drier air at the surface.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Troughing to the east and ridging to the west are forecast at H500 through this upcoming weekend. Temperatures above average are forecast during this time frame along with dry conditions. Highs on both Sunday and Monday could reach the low 70s for the southern Texas Panhandle given strong WAA in the lower levels with H850 temperatures approaching 15 to 16 degrees C. Monday still looks to be the warmest day as breezy downslope winds are forecast in the wake of a Pacific front moving over the region early in the morning hours. Some fire weather concerns may arise on Monday as dry conditions are forecast along with the breezy westerly to northwesterly winds.

Upper level ridging across the western CONUS breaks down as H300 low pressure sits over the Canadian Prairies through the middle of next week. This will allow a colder air mass to push southward across the Plains and should reach the Panhandles Monday night into Tuesday. Just how strong the cold air push is and how long it lasts varies in the model guidance, but the overall trend is for temperatures to remain around or below average from Monday night through the rest of this long term forecast. Some model guidance continues to indicate that there may be a shortwave trough that digs far enough south to bring some light precipitation to the Panhandles Wednesday morning. This is mostly depicted in the GEFS suite, but there are also some GEPS members are are depicting light precip as well. Trends will need to be monitored to see if that signal remains in the ensemble guidance as that precipitation would likely fall as snow if it were to occur at the beginning of the New Year.

Muscha

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

As of early tonight, latest observations have seen the dense fog and mist that was possible struggle to develop across the southwest Panhandle with overall visibility impacts much less that initially expected. However, there is still the potential to see these impacts as well as low status decks that can take CIGs down to IFR to LIFR level during overnight hours, especially given how saturated we are. In the meantime, latest radar returns are seeing showers trying to develop across the western Panhandles that could have impacts to KAMA and KDHT. However, indications have seen these returns more likely to be sprinkle or flurries, in the case of KDHT, with the better chances present at KAMA. Given this have chosen to reduce original expectation to vicinity showers for the next 3 to 4 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Amarillo TX 50 36 59 38 / 10 10 0 0 Beaver OK 50 34 55 31 / 30 10 20 0 Boise City OK 52 31 56 32 / 10 10 20 0 Borger TX 52 37 60 36 / 20 10 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 52 34 60 34 / 0 10 0 0 Canyon TX 51 35 59 37 / 10 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 50 37 59 37 / 30 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 52 31 57 31 / 0 10 10 0 Guymon OK 50 31 56 31 / 20 10 20 0 Hereford TX 54 35 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 51 39 55 34 / 30 10 20 0 Pampa TX 49 37 56 36 / 20 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 51 38 58 35 / 30 0 10 0 Wellington TX 52 38 59 36 / 30 0 0 0

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.