textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for portions of the TX Panhandle, especially for the SW TX Panhandle on Tuesday.

- Cannot rule out a strong or severe thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon for the eastern Texas Panhandle.

- Potential for more of the combined Panhandles to see showers and thunderstorms, some severe for Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Southerly winds tonight under partly cloudy skies will keep overnight lows about 10 degrees or so above average for early March. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region.

For Tuesday, it will set up as a western Panhandles vs eastern Panhandles in the set up for weather conditions. To start for the western Panhandles, a lee sfc low by late morning in SE Colorado will develop out ahead of the main H500 perturbation across the central Rockies. This will result in downsloping westerly winds off the NM high terrain which will result in dry airmass with breezy conditions setting up for western and portions of the central Panhandles. Mainly driven with low RH values, however with breezy westerly winds for areas out ahead of the front, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for portions of Tuesday afternoon, especially in the SW TX Panhandle. Meanwhile for the eastern Panhandles, as the main H700- 500 trough axis develops the main axis further south and east into northern New Mexico by Tuesday afternoon, sufficient H700 (+) theta-e advection will take place into the eastern Texas Panhandles by mid afternoon, providing more saturated mid levels of the atmosphere compared to locations in the western Panhandles drying out. For all of the Panhandles, as the main LLTR move over west Texas by tomorrow afternoon, sufficient LL WAA will be in place ahead of the approaching sfc cold front, especially for the southern Texas Panhandle. High temperatures for Tuesday have been adjusted based off cold front progression trends. Quite the dichotomy of high temperatures on Tuesday across the Panhandles with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the NE Panhandles in the wake of the front to lower and mid 80s for the southern Texas Panhandle.

As the cold front moves south, the aforementioned area of H700 (+) theta-e advection will interact with its inverse behind the southward progressing cold front, this should cause enough lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop for portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle. CAPE values around 1000 J/kg in the most aggressive model data sets. Depending of the timing of the front interacting with the mid level theta-e gradient, instability could be sfc based, but more likely elevated. We could still see a strong to perhaps severe storm early on, but as the evening progresses, activity should move east into western Oklahoma. Severe criteria hail will be possible for more robust storms with established updrafts for the eastern Texas Panhandle late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. To aid these thunderstorm chances, H500-250 jet placement puts the Panhandles in a region of large scale ascent around 21-00Z Wed. Chances remain low (20-30%) for thunderstorms, but still something to watch closely.

By Wednesday, in the wake of the cold front, large scale subsidence in the column will return to the Panhandles bringing dry weather conditions. High temperatures by Wednesday will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, still above average for early March.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

As of the latest global model and numerical data-sets shows the potential for an active start to the long term forecast period. For Thursday, a pseudo dryline set up for severe thunderstorm potential is there. Current model consensus has said pseudo dryline along the TX/NM stateline by Thursday afternoon. With decent mid level N-S moisture advection out ahead of the pseudo dryline and good effective wind shear, we could see thunderstorm development where some storms could be severe. Timing and placement of sfc and mid level features will be key for thunderstorm development with adjustments to the forecast expected as we get closer to Thursday. If dryline sets up further east, some critical fire weather conditions could enter the far western Panhandles for Thursday. Several variables to watch closely. Dry conditions likely to return to the Panhandles Friday through the coming weekend before the potential for an active weather pattern to return next week. High temperatures will remain above average throughout the long term forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. The only exception could be at KAMA with potential ws at 2kft around sunrise, but not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Overall winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts, becoming more northerly around 21-00Z Wednesday and staying northerly throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.