textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms potential for today and Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, but localized flooding can occur.

- Drying trend will return and we'll be watching close for the return of elevated to critical fire weather, as the state of the fuels will need to be assessed after this weekends rain event has concluded.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Our morning showers have cleared out for the most part and we do have some clearing and decent surface heating in the south and eastern Panhandles as temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60. So CAM's that have been suggesting some storms that may pop up in the 2 to 5 pm time frame out ahead of the main wave this evening certainly looks possible. The biggest challenge is that the shear doesn't look that favorable ~20kts. Over time the effective shear will pick up later this evening. But for now with these pop up storms could be working with CAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, so that could still support large hail and damaging winds. While we don't have the best low level shear until later tonight and at that time the low level helicity is not that favorable. But we do have low LCL's and some potential for enhance stretching, so will not rule out a landspout or tornado threat (<2% chance). Later this evening as the main wave moves across the area, the added forcing with peak instability will set up scattered to numerous storms along the TX/NM border. These storms are expected to track east across the Panhandles. Again main concern will be strong damaging winds and hail up to ping pong size. As storms merge together they may just be more of a wind threat later tonight and then just transition to more of a heavy rain, concern. PWAT's are pretty high in the southeast ~1.25", and therefore storms in that area will have at least a low end concern for localized flash flooding. Further west the PWAT's drop off, and the threat will be lower for excessive rainfall, but we'll still keep an eye on that.

Moving into Sunday we start to transition to southwest flow with warmer and drier air moving into the Panhandles. Highs will be in the 80s and RH values will be down to the teens as a dryline will set up just east of the Panhandles. Given the recent moisture there's very limited concern for Fire Weather on Sunday, but will still monitor the situation closely. Collingsworth County could still be just east of the dryline tomorrow, so there is a low end threat for severe weather as storms may develop over that area and track northeast into Oklahoma.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Currently the extended looks pretty quiet weather wise, but there are a few things we'll have to keep an eye on that could bring impacts to the Panhandles. Overall, southwest flow aloft will continue for the work week. This will result in daily high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Daily lee surface troughs will set up keeping the dryline just east of the Panhandle for the most part. This is one thing to keep an eye on, and subtle shift in the upper pattern, could result in that dryline shifting further east which would support possible thunderstorms, or severe weather. Right now confidence is low that we'll be seeing any storms next week. Assuming this pattern holds; warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be expected on a daily basis. That will support a return of Fire Weather to the forecast. The fist thing we need to see is how much the fuels will respond to the weekend rain, and that includes what's yet to be known about today and tonight's rainfall. That being said, it would be fair to assume at least elevated Fire Conditions will be possible, but we will not rule out critical Fire Weather.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through about 20-22z. Then we may see some pop up storms that could result in some MVFR/IFR conditions at terminals. PROB30's are in to take account. Later on tonight closer to 00z time period, we may be able to make those more prevailing or replaced with a TEMPO group, as a band of storms is expected to track across the Panhandles. Storms should clear off to the east pretty close to midnight with VFR conditions returning for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will prevail out of the south to southwest 10-20kts with some gusts close to 30 kts.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.