textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- A potential for severe thunderstorms exist in the central to eastern Panhandles this afternoon into evening. All hazards, to include large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will have to be watched for with any storm development.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to exist for the combined Panhandles Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Ample moisture and shear are expected to gradually increase from south to north across the eastern combined Panhandles today. However, the amount of coverage of these storms remains with low confidence. Low clouds continue to clear out as a quasi-warm moves towards the Panhandles from the south. A leeside low just to the northwest will continue to provide a decent pressure gradient and give the Panhandles some breezy winds, but will also help develop a dry line that is expected to extend southward through the FA. Areas to the east of this dryline have the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening with areas to the western combined Panhandles should see elevated to critical fire weather conditions. This dryline is expected to tighten up later in the day and may be the most define after dark.

Based on an 18Z balloon sounding there is a cap currently over the area thanks to some morning fog as well as dry H7 to H5 layer. Some better H7 theta-e advection is currently progged later this evening and mainly for the southwest TX Panhandle. Clouds will need to clear and H7 moisture advection is needed in order for storms to start firing. Confidence in any storms firing before the early evening hours is low at this time.

As moisture advection east of the dryline continues to increase this afternoon, MUCAPE values are progged to rise into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range, higher if you trust the NAM and its moist bias. What will make the storms ugly today if they do get going will be the strong SE surface winds on the moist side of the dryline. This will not only increase the bulk shear, but it will add to the low level helicity for the tornado potential. Once storms get going and spinning, all hazards will be in play with a potential for hail up to 3" in diameter and the potential for tornadoes, maybe even some straightline winds.

The upper level trough currently bringing todays weather will continue to approach the Panhandles tomorrow. As it does so, the dryline will get pushed east into OK and bring dry and windy conditions to the combined Panhandles. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for Friday afternoon. Some eastern parts of the Panhandle may still receive some decent rainfall this evening, and may hold some higher Tds into the eastern Panhandles. A surface trough will bring west winds around 25 to maybe even 30 mph. H85 winds around 40 to 45 kts will add the potential for gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range for Friday afternoon as well. A frontal passage from the north is progged to move into the combined Panhandles after sunset tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Thanks to a frontal passage Friday night, afternoon highs will start out the long term period with near average highs in the upper 50s. Gradual warming is expected to occur thereafter with H5 heights rising going into Mon ahead of a potential cutoff low approaching. Afternoon highs are currently progged to get into the lower to mid 80s on Monday with H85 temps progged to warm to 22 degrees C. The next potential weather maker (aforementioned cutoff low) will be moving in Mon night into Tue. The NBM introduces PoPs starting Mon night and going all the way into Tue night. Being a ways out, any potential rain and thunderstorms should get confined to a 6 to maybe 12 hour period in this time frame, and should see the PoPs shrink in time. Depending on this system and rain, temperatures could get back into the lower 80s again for Tue. The next potential front will be associated with this system and is progged to come in sometime Tue or Tue night and at least cooler the afternoon highs for Wed down into the 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Low clouds and fog have continued to dissipate going into the 18Z period. All TAF sites should become and remain VFR from here on out. Breezy and gusty winds may divided by a dryline will split the area. KDHT should remain with southwesterly winds west of this surface boundary, while KAMA and KGUY remain in question. KAMA and KGUY will most likely keep south to southeasterly winds depending on where this dryline stalls out. There is a low end chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm for KAMA going into the 22Z to 03Z time frame. However, confidence is low as storms are expected to develop and stay east of KAMA at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Tonight a dryline will move off to the east. Tomorrow the Panhandles are expected to stay on the dry side with additional dry air moving in from the west. The surface trough bringing the dry air will also bring with it some breezy westerly winds. Tomorrow, westerly winds in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph are expected to combine with RH values near 10 percent or less. RFTI values are expected to top out in the 5 to 7 range, especially across the central to western combined Panhandles.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Friday for TXZ001>003- 006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Friday for OKZ001-002.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for OKZ003.