textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Thunderstorm chances return to the Panhandles tonight. These storms have a low (5%) chance of becoming severe.

- Chances for rain persist this week across the combined Panhandles. Chances for excessive rainfall and severe storms will be monitored on a daily basis.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Surface winds have become westerly and northerly across much of the region due to the passing of a cold front this morning. A reinforcement front is expected to move across the CWA tomorrow morning and help surface winds become more northeasterly. These east and northeast winds should prevail through the rest of Monday.

Regarding precipitation, we have been watching the trends of the latest 12Z models alongside the position of the cold front that passed through our CWA this morning. Our confidence is much lower across much of the TX Panhandle for thunderstorms during the day time, since the cold front has progressed much further south than models previously had it for this afternoon. Our main concern is still for the overnight time frame, when the complex of storms beginning in SE Colorado moves south into our area thanks to another boundary carrying the convection across. However, there are still some uncertainties with regard to coverage and severity. Most CAMs this morning have strong signals for the OK Panhandle, mainly across Beaver county. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is across the OK Panhandle and portions of the northern TX Panhandle. Chances for severe storms are now much lower in the central and southern TX Panhandle, especially in Amarillo proper. Thunderstorms should begin very late tonight, likely after midnight and most of the activity should occur during the hours just before and right after sunrise.

For the rest of Monday, persistent cloud cover and northeasterly winds will aid in keeping day time temperatures on the cooler side. Highs tomorrow should range in the 70s and 80s, with morning lows bottoming in the 50s and 60s. CAMs this morning are not as enthused about afternoon storms in the Texas Panhandle or Tuesday morning rain chances for the combined Panhandles. NBM PoPs tomorrow and early Tuesday are largely being driven by global models and their ensemble members. Namely the ECMWF and ENS ensembles are the most aggressive models for high PoPs and storm coverage across the FA. Once more of the CAMs and short term models get ingested to the NBM, expect PoPs to decrease as models try to resolve storm coverage for our area. Right now, the western combined Panhandles are favored for precipitation, but storms need to hold together for our central and eastern zones to be in play as well.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Global models in the mid-range continue to place the H500 high pressure center over the Texas and Louisiana gulf coast, while the axis of the ridge extends into portions of the central Great Plains. Favorable steering flow on the windward side of the upper level high will allow our CWA to experience back-to-back rain chances this week. With a deepening trough expected to traverse across the Atlantic coastal regions late this week, this may trigger another subtle western transition from the upper level high. If the ridge does reposition more over our area or due south, expect surface temperatures to rise and rain chances to decline next weekend.

For the rest of this week, highs look to remain in the 70s and 80s across the CWA. PoPs in the extended period currently favor the western Panhandles more than the rest of the area. The main concern will be the extent of thunderstorm coverage each day. If storm mode is more conducive for scattered thunderstorms as opposed to widespread thunderstorms, we can expect a decline in precipitation chances as models resolve where thunderstorms may setup spatially.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Light winds and mostly clear skies are anticipated at all sites during the day time. Overnight into Monday morning is where the forecast shifts to potential shower and thunderstorm activity alongside MVFR conditions due to low ceilings. While chances for rain are coming in lower than previous forecasts, KGUY is still the most likely TAF site to be impacted by rainfall, which could lead to IFR conditions. Otherwise, low level clouds are expected to impact all sites this morning and may not clear out until after 18Z Monday.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.