textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across the west and central Panhandles today - some of the storms could be severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards.

- Very hot to dangerously hot temperatures are expected on Wednesday and these temperatures may lead to heat related illnesses, especially in Palo Duro Canyon State Park.

- Thunderstorm chances continue each day Wednesday and beyond with some storms having the potential to become severe each afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

H500 high pressure should get pushed off to the east on Tuesday as troughing moves east across the Rockies. WAA is not expected to be as strong as Monday, but temperatures will still be in the upper 90s to 100s across the region, resulting in very little relief from the heat. Moisture is expected to be remain in place over the Panhandles into eastern NM on Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves over the region. Thunderstorms may start to form across northeastern NM by early afternoon, but may not start to form across the Panhandles until mid to late afternoon. Coverage should be more scattered in nature given synoptic scale lift. Instability is not very high, even from the moisture rich NAM, which only depicts MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg. What will be a concern is just how high the DCAPE values are forecast to be, which are upwards of 1500-1750 J/kg. The combination of the high DCAPE values combined with a quick moving forward storm motion should result in a damaging wind gust threat for the central and western Panhandles. Damaging wind gusts upwards of 70-80 mph will be possible with any storms before they begin to dissipate during the evening hours.

Strong WAA returns on Wednesday with forecast model guidance suggesting H850 temperatures increase upwards of 35 Celsius by peak heating during the afternoon. A decent portion of the Panhandles may need a Heat Advisory given temperatures approaching or exceeding 105 degrees. Extreme Heat criteria (110 degrees or higher) may be reached at the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon, so an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for that potential. What will aid in the increased temperatures are drier dew points for the central and western Panhandles as a dry line mixes east and should be oriented from roughly western Beaver county down to western Armstrong county. To the east of the dryline, moisture will remain in place and convective temperatures should be achieved resulting in isolated to scattered storm development. The set-up looks very similar to what was experienced on Monday and as a result, severe storms will be possible along and east of the dryline. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards in addition to heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding concerns as the storms will not be moving very quickly. Any storms that form should quickly decrease in strength during the early evening as the sun sets.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Upper level ridging is forecast to prevail across much of the northern half of the CONUS late this week through this weekend. The Panhandles will be in between this weather system and high pressure to the south so westerly flow is forecast for much of the long term forecast period. From Thursday through Saturday, temperatures are likely to remain in the upper 80s to 90s with a few locations potentially reaching 100, such as Palo Duro Canyon State Park. Low to mid level Gulf of America moisture should continue to be in place over the southern High Plains during this time frame and shortwave troughs should move over the Panhandles resulting in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

For Thursday, a weak cold front is expected to start moving across the Panhandles. A line of storms is expected to form along this front all the way from the Great Lakes down to the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient instability may be in place to generate severe thunderstorms along this line which may impact the eastern TX Panhandle. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazards if any storms form across the eastern CWA. Friday and beyond, the latest models diverge on just the placement and timing of any shortwaves, but in general there are at least 20-30 percent chances for rain each evening into the overnight. Storms may be able to sustain themselves into the overnight hours this weekend, aided by lift from the shortwaves and forecast soundings indicating the potential for elevated CAPE profiles. Temperatures will begin to decrease this upcoming weekend into the next work week as the Panhandles are under the influence of the bottom of the H500 ridge. Thunderstorm chances may persist each day with this projected pattern.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the rest of the morning hours at all sites. Later this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms look to affect the KDHT and KGUY terminals. PROB30 groups continue for both of sites from 21Z to 00Z Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances have increase slightly for KAMA late this evening. Confidence is still too low to include mentions in the TAF, but if storms hold together longer than expected KAMA could experience impacts.

Strong winds are still forecast to affect all TAF sites through the day. The wind direction will be primarily from the southwest. Strong winds are expected to continue through the night and linger till the end of the 12Z period.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.