textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, which could lead to severe wind gusts and localized flash flooding.

- High pressure is expected to build back in this week resulting in another round of 100+ degrees for the Panhandles starting on Tuesday, with the potential for some heat headlines.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

As of the latest 17Z obs, we continue to watch an outflow boundary from the previous night's convection continue to move south into the far southern Texas Panhandle, roughly from just south of Hereford, east to Clarendon. Further aloft in the (+)H500 theta-e flow regime, showers are beginning to develop on the western periphery of the main mid level high pressure system. The main lifting mechanism with notable perturbations in the WSW flow coming from western NM will help to generate mountain convection this afternoon for the Sangre de Cristos. Similar to Saturday, convection should develop over the high terrain and gradually move east. With anemic steering flow, motion of storms overall will be slow and also with training of storm potential, localized flash flooding will be possible. Overall thunderstorms. DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg for portions of the area will also result in the chance for damaging wind gusts for severe storms that develop in the more robust cores. Storms will eventually become elevated by tonight as outflow boundary races out ahead of main activity, but still watching localized flooding threat closely. Any residual activity should exit the Panhandles to the northeast into Kansas just before sunrise Monday morning.

Going into Monday, the broad mid level anti-cyclonic feature should elongate over the south central CONUS. The potential is there for a shower or storm for the far NW Panhandles, but overall coverage for rain chances should be less compared to today. With more of the influence of the high pressure, temperatures will begin to climb with highs on Monday well into the 90s across the Panhandles, potential reaching 100 degrees for the far SE TX Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

If you like high temperatures at or over 100 degrees once again, you will enjoy the next several days where most of the Panhandles should experience these temperatures. The main H500 high pressure system will slowly traverse towards the Four Corners Region by the end of the week bringing large scale subsidence to the region. Some of the latest global model guidance shows a set up of mid level NW flow bring rain chances for the northern Panhandles, but we will watch those trends closely as we get later in the week. Unfortunately, we will be adding more 100 degree days to the summer for this forecast period, adding to well above average temperatures continuing for mid to late August.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the TAF sites for the 18Z TAF period. The only exception would be for KDHT/KGUY from roughly 03-12Z, PROB30 was added for TSRA where erratic winds from storms would be possible. Otherwise, overall winds will be variable at 5-10 kts with few to sct high clouds.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.