textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Widespread triple-digit high temperatures continue this week.

- A pattern shift will increase thunderstorm chances as early as Thursday and into the weekend for portions of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

High temperatures in the triple-digits and dry conditions are expected to prevail over the short term. Upper-level high pressure, large scale subsidence, and increasing temperatures at 850 mb over the next couple of days continue to be the story. Minimal chances (around 10%) for thunderstorms in the western combined Panhandles continue over the short term as well. There are signals of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the southwestern TX Panhandle on Wednesday on the backside of a surface low pressure, accompanied by PVA, but chances remain low as any precipitation will still be competing with dry air at both the surface and mid-levels.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Beginning Thursday, we begin to see a pattern shift, with the upper- level high pressure propagating east of the Panhandles. This will place our CWA on the western periphery of the ridge in the southeastern US, where shortwave perturbations will provide better synoptic scale support across the Panhandles. Beginning Thursday, a moisture boundary is progged to setup across the southcentral and eastern Panhandles, where current guidance is trying to initiate storms across that boundary. Current conditions point toward the main hazard of these storms being strong winds with DCAPE around 1500-1800 J/kg. Forecasted soundings and forecasted surface temperatures and dewpoints indicate inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, which will likely lead to rain evaporating between cloud bases and the surface. While PWAT values dont point toward inefficient rain producers, moat precipitation will likely be contained to the main core of any thunderstorms, meaning any lightning strikes that occur outside of the main core of a storm could pose a fire start risk. This could be enhanced by any strong to severe wind gusts from storms and dry fuels, posing a risk for fire starts to spread.

Friday and into the weekend, the upper-level high pressure establishes itself southeast of the Panhandles. The anticyclonic flow and dry conditions of the high pressure to our southeast, will entrain dry air into the eastern Panhandles. This will shift our thunderstorm risk from the central and eastern Panhandles to the western and northwestern Panhandles as we head into the weekend. Storm coverage and severity for thee days are still an uncertainty, as only long-range models are seeing the event window so far.

The pattern is currently progged shuffle hot and dry conditions back in next week, as the upper-level high pressure retrogrades back west. This will likely see the return of large scale subsidence and increasing temperatures once again.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period. Winds will remain predominantly out of the S ranging from 15-20 kts sustained, gusting up to 25-30 kts throughout Tuesday afternoon/evening. LLWS is possible, specifically at KAMA and KGUY, from 06-09Z, however confidence in this outcome is currently too low to include in TAF's. Hot temperatures are leading to increased density altitude at all terminals.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010- 015-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.