textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Scattered showers and storms could impact Memorial Day activities across the western combined Panhandles.

- Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the next shot at widespread rainfall across the region.

- After Tuesday, daily thunderstorm chances continue through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

In the wake of Saturday's welcomed rain and storms across a large portion of the Panhandles, today's weather is slated to be mostly quiet for the area. Large scale subsidence behind the exiting upper level shortwave will dominate our weather for the most part, with highs in the 80s and a 10-20 mph south breeze. Despite yesterday's convection largely overrunning the environment, some models suggest that southerly return flow in tandem with a very subtle shortwave may be sufficient to generate some small, spotty showers/storms again this afternoon. CAMs primarily highlight the Oklahoma and SW Texas Panhandles as the areas to watch for this development where atmospheric recovery is better favored, but only amounts to about a 15-25% chance of occurring.

Memorial Day brings the next opportunity for storms across the western combined Panhandles, as a large 500mb trough rotates and shifts eastward atop the Rockies through the day. This will allow an embedded disturbance to lift over the eastern high plains of New Mexico, impinging upon the western counties of our CWA. These areas should have an abundant swath of mid-level moisture for showers and storms to develop, lending 30-60% probabilities for measurable rain to occur tomorrow afternoon-evening. Instability will be on the weaker side where rain is expected, but any thunderstorm will have a low chance to produce over 0.25" of rain in the western TX Panhandle by midnight. For the central and eastern Panhandles however, rain chances are less than 20% and impactful weather is less likely with highs in the upper 80s and a south breeze.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Ensemble and probabilistic projections provide hope for continued precipitation potential during the long term period. Tuesday in particular appears to be an active weather day for the Panhandles, as ridging to our east and troughing to our west would spell optimal conditions for enhanced moisture return to the region. Ensemble averages currently pull PWATs >1" across a majority of the forecast area, which would be above the 90th percentile of climatology for May 26. If a more pronounced embedded shortwave within the flow is able to arrive through the day as the GFS and other models now depict, scattered showers and storms would be likely for much of the area, especially in the afternoon and evening hours (50-70% chances). The likelihood of convective development is rather high at this conjecture, but the main question is figuring out just how widespread and how strong showers and storms will be. Given the abundant amount of moisture forecast, efficient rainfall production is achievable even without stronger thunderstorms. This equates to about 20-50% probabilities for rainfall >0.50", and even about a 10% chance across the southern TX Panhandle for localized totals >1".

Beyond Tuesday, odds continue shifting in our favor that the synoptic pattern will support additional rounds of storm chances closing out May and entering June. Each day this week into next has at least some chance for precipitation for portions of the Panhandles, but not everyone will see rain everyday. Regardless, this is exactly what we want to see as we transition into our climatological wettest part of the year, desperately needing to make a dent in drought conditions. Near average temperatures and lighter south winds also mean that fire weather shouldn't be anywhere near as much of a concern for the next 7 days.

Harrel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. South to southeasterly winds are expected to prevail. Starting out around 15 kts, but should drop off to near 10 kts or less towards 08Z. There is a very low chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the western Panhandles between now and 06Z and again towards the end of this 00Z TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.