textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

-Wind Advisory is in effect for early this morning as a cold front with strong northerly winds moves through the Panhandles.

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected for the central and eastern Panhandles during the daytime hours on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Latest 05Z obs shows the main cold front moving quickly to the south across west central Kansas. Based off of the latest obs, winds are being over performed compared to the highest percentile. As the cold front moves quickly through the Panhandle between now and around 12Z, criteria is being met where a Wind Advisory is in effect for all of the Panhandles with notable winds. Could also see some blowing dust along and just behind the main cold front for a few hours overnight tonight into the early morning hours as well.

Going past sunrise tomorrow morning, the notable H850 CAA will continue to move south into the Panhandles where high temperatures will struggle to get out of the mid to upper 40s in most areas, minus the far SE TX Panhandles where lower 50s for highs could be reached. With breezy northerly winds and low RH values, we will have to watch for fire weather conditions for portions of the central and eastern Panhandles throughout the daylight hours on Friday. Even colder airmass for Saturday is in store with high temperatures will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. A brief window on Saturday mid morning where light snow showers are possible across the central and eastern Panhandles along a mid level perturbation along the western edge of the main mid level high amplitude sinusoidal wave. Enough lift aloft could result in a dusting of snow (90th percentile) in terms of any accumulating snow, but those chances are low. That will quickly exit the region with even colder temperatures by Saturday night with lows ranging from the lower teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A longwave trough will be in place over the Eastern US with a ridge over the Eastern US. West-southwesterly winds will occurring to begin Sunday which will help warm temperatures into the upper-50s to low-60s before a weak cold front moves in later in the day. Winds will turn the dial on Monday and become southerly, but the cooler airmass will stick around and keep temperatures in the 40s.

The regional pattern will break down somewhat, heights aloft will rise, and temperatures will warm into the 50s on Tuesday and upper- 50s to low-60s on Wednesday.

Details in the weather pattern on operational and ensemble model guidance diverge significantly after Wednesday, though at this time it appears temperatures could return to values closer to normal. Overall, precipitation chances in the long-term look bleak.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the 06Z TAF period. Between 06-12Z, winds will shift to northerly and become quite notable at all TAF sites with winds sustained between 15-30 kts with higher gusts approaching 40 kts at times. Along the progressing cold front, BLDU conditions may also reduce visibilities at times within the 06-12Z timing window. Going past 12Z, winds will then subside slightly to 15-25 kts sustained out of the north with gusts over 30 kts at times for the remainder of the3 TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of the central and eastern Panhandles. Min RH values will drop as low as 10 percent, coupled with northerly 20 ft winds of 20-25 mph will result in max RFTI values of 4 to 5. ERC percentiles also in the range as high as 70-80th percentile and with these available fuels in the eastern and portions of the central Panhandles, this has resulted in these fire weather concerns for portions of the Panhandles for midday Friday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for TXZ003>005-009- 010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for OKZ002-003.