textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Wednesday and extending through Saturday. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out some of these days.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

As we come off of a very active stretch of fire weather, the rest of today is a chance for the Panhandles to take a deep breath and enjoy decreasing winds and beautiful spring temperatures. North winds will turn out of the east this evening and die down closer to 10 mph overnight. These east winds will begin the process of advecting low level moisture to the area (40s-50s dew points), which could cause some low clouds and perhaps thin, patchy fog to develop tomorrow morning.

Wednesday into Wed night has the potential to bring beneficial rainfall to portions of the Panhandles, but also has the potential for many locations to miss out on the moisture entirely. Although conditions will become more favorable for rain and storms, the margin for error is small, and there are a handful of factors that could lead to a disappointing outcome for much of the area. Southwest flow aloft will settle atop the Plains, drawing improved theta-e to the region thanks to troughing over the western CONUS. Cooler temperatures from morning cloud cover will keep better atmospheric saturation within the swath of higher moisture content, which is most favored across the southern Panhandle and eastern New Mexico initially. Many models depict a corridor of dry air existing over the central to western Panhandles, which may inhibit convective development until better moisture fills in overnight with the arrival of a subtle shortwave disturbance. Some CAMs on the other hand suggest convection off the higher terrain will struggle to survive the trip into this dry air, while others believe new convection will form over the heart of our CWA later tomorrow evening.

All this goes to say, we unfortunately will have to wait and see where moisture is situated along with the upper disturbance, as well as how convection evolves before placing higher confidence in storm chances. Even if rain survives, it is likely going to be scattered and "hit or miss" in nature rather than widespread (30-60% POPs). Instability will be modest (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE), which could support storms becoming strong-severe with hail and gusty winds. Showers and storms may become more widespread across the eastern Panhandles overnight into Thursday morning where higher PWATs >1" will be present, and would be better favored to produce beneficial rainfall >0.5".

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Ensemble outputs depict additional rounds of systems approaching the Panhandles into next week thanks to persistent troughing to our west, with decent potential to provide shower and storm opportunities daily. Thursday's rain/storm chances would likely be conditional based on Wed night activity, but could be conducive for additional strong-severe storms if the atmosphere is able to recover from morning convection across the northern and eastern combined Panhandles. Friday is another day we are monitoring for increased storm potential, especially across the eastern Panhandles where boundary interactions combined with increased moisture, instability, and large scale lift may create an environment worth monitoring for severe weather. The synoptic pattern is more uncertain beyond Friday, but there is a signal for a relatively wetter pattern to continue.

One bonus to the forecast pattern regardless of rain chances, is the the return to near average temperatures to end the month. After the anomalously hot, windy, and dry stretch we've been in, the outlook of lighter winds, cooler temperatures, and higher humidity should provide an extremely welcomed reprieve from fire weather concerns.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Winds will decrease out of the east tonight, becoming southeasterly tomorrow at 10-15 kts. MVFR to IFR ceilings will return to all sites overnight through tomorrow morning. Brief instances of LIFR ceilings can't be ruled out and may need to be included in future issuances.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.