textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- High chances for mostly light rain expected this weekend across the Panhandles, with localized thunderstorms and heavier rain for southern and eastern areas.

- Cold and breezy conditions in conjunction with the rain will make wind chills drop below freezing this weekend.

- Cool and breezy weather expected early next week, with potential for an active pattern to return late week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Observational satellite data shows early signs of what's to come for the Panhandles, as clouds increase for portions of the area. An upper level ridge is still solidly atop the region based on mesoanalysis, but is becoming displaced by southwest flow ahead of a deepening trough centered over the Baja. These features in tandem with increasing south-southeasterly winds at the surface are aiding better moisture advection to the region, which is in turn producing aforementioned cloud cover. Southeast winds will further ramp up overnight into Saturday as the system creeps closer, sustained at 10- 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Temperatures stay chilly tonight in the 30s and 40s, and won't warm up much tomorrow, topping out in the 40s to low 50s. Be mindful if outdoors that breezy, cool, and wet conditions will make apparent temperatures feel below freezing at times this weekend.

Recent trends in both coarse and hi-resolution model data have come in with a further north track of the shortwave over the Baja as it translates eastward tonight tomorrow. This should provide better synoptic lift early Saturday morning, resulting in higher chances for light showers to begin earlier in the day (40-80% chances for light rain across the west and central Panhandles before noon). As we head into the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow, a deeper trough currently observed over the NW CONUS will dive southeastward and close off atop the Panhandles. With a cool and moist airmass already being reinforced through the day (PWATs generally 0.5-0.8"), maximized lift with this system will start to produce rounds of more substantial moderate rainfall. Given the northward push of the first disturbance, it is looking more probable that pockets of weak instability will materialize over south and eastern counties of the area. Looking at morning CAMs and REFS guidance, some of these rounds of showers moving from west to east will be more convective in nature (but not strong/severe), leading to higher chances for localized heavier rain >1" through Saturday night - early Sunday. These probabilities remain highest across the east Panhandles (30- 50% chance), with a very low potential across the south central closer to Amarillo (10-30% chance). The message remains consistent for a majority of the forecast area though, that we expect high chances for mostly light rain to occur this weekend.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Sunday will be another cool and dreary day, with a cold air mass being further reinforced by a cold front while the upper level system exits to our southeast. Wrap around moisture will likely produce some lingering showers Sunday morning - afternoon (30-60% POPs), favoring central and eastern counties of the CWA. Even though rain should gradually clear by Sunday night, cloud cover and north winds will keep highs on the chilly side in the 40s. Monday morning, we could be waking up to near freezing temperatures across the region.

Models then depict ridging replacing the upper level low next week, kicking off a warming trend back to near average temperatures Mon - Thur (highs in the 50s & 60s). Surface winds should be breezy again during this time frame thanks to a persistently tight pressure gradient, especially across the northwest combined Panhandles Tue & Wed (40-70% chance for gusts >40 mph). Track and timing of systems continue to shift around amongst long range datasets, but there is still a signal for an active pattern to potentially return late next week. We will have to wait and see if any of these hypothetical systems provide a significant cool down. In the meantime, it appears as though we should continue to reap the benefits of El Nino, meaning it's more likely than not that any system we receive should provide some moisture. light showers move in

Harrel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through about 10Z, with increasing moisture and rain chances causing a reduction to MVFR shortly after. As the day progresses CIGs are expected to lower to IFR, potentially even LIFR at times after 18Z with heavier showers. Though the probability for thunder is low, and not currently in the TAFs, some isolated thunder somewhere in the Panhandles cannot be ruled out towards the end of this 24 hour period. South to southeasterly winds are expected to pick up and gust near 25-30 kts with this system bringing less favorable conditions and rain chances.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.