textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Low-end critical fire weather remains possible across the Northeastern Panhandles this afternoon with a Red Flag Warning present

- Near record temperatures are expected to be accompanied by chances of elevated fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

- A brief cool off Sunday will see temperatures rebound for the holiday week with afternoon highs in the 70s clear into Christmas.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

As of early this afternoon, latest station observations have already seen surface winds pickup with multiple reports in the Northeast Panhandles of northerly winds gusting over 40 mph. This is good indication that the expected upper-level jet has officially pushed south near the Panhandles. At this time latest CAMs are in good agreement that we wont get the full brunt of said jet, but we are still expected to get clipped enough to keep these 40 mph and greater gusts going for a bit longer. Unfortunately with winds expected to stay this strong through the afternoon, fire weather has concern has increased, especially for the northeast where winds are at their strongest. Given this higher concern, A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the area through 6 PM this evening. By then most model are expecting this jet to make its full exit eastward with a new lee-side low looking to build at the surface. This low should help to decouple us from any linger strong upper-level winds for the overnight as well. However by Friday, model agreement expects this low to turn on us as the Panhandles begin to see pressure gradients tighten and down- sloping southwesterly winds take over. This takeover with see fire weather concern shift back to the Western Panhandles while temperatures quickly rebound across the area. In fact, latest model agreement is projecting the potential for afternoon highs to be in the mid 70, which is nearing a few records for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

The exit of system over the Dakotas Thursday night into Friday has models expecting the Panhandles to fall under a more zonal upper- level flow for end of the week. At the surface, this flow is expected to be accompanied by high pressure, which should keep the Panhandles dry through Christmas. Much like Friday, model agreement does see the potential for another down-sloping event to take place Saturday, which could see temperatures jump clear into the upper 70s that afternoon and give us another shot at breaking records. Unfortunately, this would also come with breezy conditions and chances of elevated fire weather as well. By Sunday, models do see a bit of a switch up as a weak short wave push across the zonal flow and force a dry cold front over the Panhandles. Chances of precipitation for the day are very low, but the front will give us a little relief from the abnormal temperatures. However, this relief looks to be brief as most models expect us back into the 70s for the holiday week with some of our hotter locations look to near the low 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Northerly winds are calming with a gradual shift to the south expected. Some LLWS may be present at all three sites mainly between 08Z and 14Z for a period of time around as 1.5k foot winds reach upwards of 40 to 50 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ004-005-010.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ002-003.