textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Low chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight for portions of the northern and western Panhandles.

- The return of triple digit heat with 105 degree potential starting Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Latest 18Z obs across the area show current temperatures in the 80s, with no triple digits temps in sight!! Well...until as early as Friday before they return, but we will talk about that later on. For today, in the wake of some beneficial rains from yesterday for many areas of the Panhandles, slightly cooler temps are holding steady.

Overall for this afternoon, the main H500 high pressure centered over central New Mexico continues to advect perturbations in the mean H500 NW flow. Coupled with upslope LL flow of Td's in the lower 60s into the high terrain will result in storms developing within this vicinity. Latest hi-res guidance shows the main steering flow of activity more north-northwesterly out of NM, which should keep most of the thunderstorm activity west of the TX/NM stateline. But cannot rule out through this evening a few severe storms in our far western Panhandles with CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, overall effective shear should struggle to get above 20 kts, which boats higher confidence in any severe storm potential coming from established convection in NM, if it reaches the far western Panhandles. But one area to watch closely. Our second area of interest will be the northeastern Panhandles this evening into the overnight hours. Similar to the set up for NM storms this afternoon, upslope flow across the central Rockies will move southeast into the central and southern Plains into the overnight. Higher confidence shows more elevated storms reaching the Panhandles for the overnight period, but still cannot completely rule out a sfc based linear complex reaching the far NE Panhandles with strong wind potential with DCAPE values in the 1000-1400 J/kg range. Leftover showers could still be present by sunrise Thursday morning.

Rinse and repeat with similar set up for thunderstorm activity for Thursday across the Panhandles, with highest chances for the western areas. Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with no triple digit temperatures expected!

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

As the main H500 high pressure shifts and centers more over the southern HIgh Plains and then eventually the lower Mississippi River Valley by next week, mostly dry conditions expected as seen from the latest global model guidance. Perhaps a chance for shower and storms, favoring western and northern Panhandles, otherwise hot and dry conditions expected. Triple digit temperatures expected to return Friday through the remainder of the long term forecast period. Once again, unfortunately.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. The only exception would be between 06-12Z Thursday where PROB30 group has been introduced at all sites for TSRA potential along with erratic winds from storms possible. Otherwise, overall winds will be out east and southeast at 5-10 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.