textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Low chances for isolated storms return to the northwest Panhandles and I-40 corridor this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and localized flooding from heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

- High pressure is expected to build back over the region this week resulting in another round of 100+ degrees for the Panhandles starting on Tuesday. Heat advisories may be need for portions of the area some days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Radar shows showers storms draped across the northern Panhandles as of 06z, which will linger through the early morning hours before tapering off. Several sites across the area have measured over 1 inch of rain already, and localized flooding from heavy rainfall will remain a potential hazard until activity fully dissipates.

This activity may leave a remnant outflow boundary across the southern and eastern Panhandles this afternoon-evening, which several CAMs show becoming a focal point for isolated storm development along the I-40 corridor. High pressure is still degraded enough to our southeast to provide upper level support for storms in this area, but looking at 700mb theta-e forecasts, the window for storm development may be short-lived. Deep layer moisture should be sufficient at first, but drier air from the south will eventually be advected northward, leaving the northwest Panhandles as the more favorable area for storm potential later this evening. Regardless of where storms develop, activity will be very hit or miss, meaning only 15-25% chances for any single location to get rain. Forecast sounding thermodynamic profiles don't look as promising for severe storm potential today, but severe downburst wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be possible with any storm just like recent days.

Another afternoon of heat "relief" is forecast today, with highs mostly in the 90s. A few spots will likely reach triple digits in the southeast TX Panhandle, but overall this is still relatively mild compared to last week. Our warming trend resumes Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure builds to the west, placing highs of 95 to 105 Panhandles wide. Breezy southwest winds return as well, sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Despite the Panhandle thermostat getting turned up through most of the week, global modals have been hinting that Wed - Thu could have potential for more rain chances and "cooler" temperatures. The culprit for such potential is a trailing trough on the southeast flank of a large upper level low over the Hudson Bay of Canada. This trough will dive southeast across the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday, placing northwest flow atop the region. A weak frontal passage will make its way over the area as well, resulting in better moisture content and temperatures dropping a few degrees by Thursday (highs mostly in the 90s). Model agreement has improved regarding this potential, which places 20-40% storm chances across the north and western combined Panhandles primarily Wed evening and overnight. CAPE and shear profiles may be sufficient for a low-end severe threat as well, but we will have to wait and see how the thermodynamic environment pans out.

Unfortunately, high pressure is progged to translate from the Four Corners region back to the Southern Great Plains late week. Widespread triple digit heat promptly returns to end the week through the weekend, and dry air will filter back to the region in tandem. Rain chances will be slim to none for several days, as it appears high pressure is here to stay.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds will become southwesterly by morning and then with gusts increasing to 25kt by midday Tuesday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.