textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Thunderstorm chances (35-50%) across the southern Panhandle of Sunday.

- Sunday's storms could become severe, and will also have the capability to produce localized flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Tonight, temperatures will drop to the low 60's (northwestern Panhandles) to low 70's (southeastern Panhandles). There is the chance (10-20%) that remnants of an outflow boundary from convection in eastern Oklahoma this evening could produce showers in the early morning hours (5-7 AM). Current satellite shows this outflow making its way across the Oklahoma boarder into the eastern Texas Panhandle. However, the more likely scenario is mid- to upper- level dry air inhibiting shower development off the boundary.

This afternoon, a stationary boundary extends from a low-pressure center in the Ohio Valley, through the Red River, and into the southern TX Panhandle. This will provide weak forcing across the Panhandle to aid diurnal heating in afternoon storm initiation. There is still the small possibility a remnant outflow boundary could also force thunderstorms, but where these would be are currently unclear. A pulsing storm mode is likely due to lackluster bulk shear values (localized areas of 20 kts), and are expected to start as clusters and grow upscale into a linear conglomeration as the stationary boundary progresses south throughout the day. Spatial coverage is the biggest uncertainty. Outflow from tonights storms in eastern Oklahoma is could dampen temperature profiles in the southeast tomorrow, which could make it more difficult to reach convective temperatures there. Coupled with the longer fetch of upsloping flow due to easterly turning surface winds creates higher confidence in storm initiation in the southwest. While lacking shear and vertically stacked storms will dampen the hail threat, DCAPE values of 1400-1600 J/kg and inverted-V soundings will present a wind threat for storms in the southern TX Panhandle. Slow storm motions and high PWATT values (1.2-1.5") could also lead to flash flooding concerns, which could be exasperated in the southeast by antecedent conditions.

Tomorrow night, temperatures drop back into the 60's. As the upper level high pressure begins to shift north in preparation for a Rex Block, the Panhandles will get out from under the high pressure and temperatures will cool down heading into the middle of the week. The remnant stationary boundary could force up some showers/storms on Monday, however, it will likely be south of the CWA by then.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A Rex block is expected to develop across the central plains this week. This weather pattern pushes the upper-level high pressure center north, and an upper-level low pressure center retrogrades southwest. This places the high pressure north of the low pressure, creating a block pattern and keeping upper-level flow from reaching the central US. Fortunately, the Panhandles will be under the low- pressure center, which will likely bring daily maximum temperatures this week down to average or slightly below. However, as far as weather patterns, the Rex Block will dampen PoP chances for the week, until upper-level flow can return to the area.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. SHRA/TSRA could occur at KAMA after 18z but confidence in this is very low and not included in the forecast at this time. Winds will generally be out of the north to northeast at KDHT and KGUY overnight into tomorrow before taking on more of a southerly component and gusts could increase tomorrow afternoon to around 20kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.