textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions persist on Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Tuesday night and extending through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Currently, a dryline boundary over the eastern combined Panhandles has begun its retreat west. Although we have observed isolated attempts at convective initiation, updrafts have not been able to sustain as convection moves off the boundary.

Tonight, RH recovery is dependent on both a weak cold front in the north and the retreating dryline in the east. Current guidance points toward a weak cold front pushing into the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight, which would bring with it increased RH values and a W to even NW wind shift in the western OK Panhandle and NW TX Panhandle. This weak cold front, and the dryline retreating west overnight could put the majority of of the Panhandles in decent (greater than 50%) Rh recovery. However, it will likely leave the western TX and north-central TX Panhandle counties in quite poor RH recovery overnight (20-30%).

An upper-level trough will swing from the southwestern US, through the 4-corners, and into the plains through the course of tonight and tomorrow. This will re-establish a lee-side surface low pressure system in eastern CO. The cold front that pushes into the northern CWA tonight will retreat as southerly/southwesterly winds strengthen to the south of the front and the low strengthens. As the low strengthens, and 850 mb support arrives in the form of a LLJ around 35-40 kts, surface winds are expected to respond with intensification in the Panhandles. Sustained winds could reach 30-35 mph across the Panhandles, with gusts up to 50 mph. Minimum RH's as low as 4%, with widespread minimums of 5-10% across the combined Panhandles will lead to critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles.

Thee dryline on Monday will push east throughout the day, and CAMs are in agreement that there will likely not be enough forcing present along it to initiate convection. However, a cold strong cold front is expected to push through the area on Monday night. The cold front will enter the OK Panhandle around 7-8 PM, reaching Amarillo around 10-11 PM. This cold front will bring increased relative humidity, but with the strength of the cold front and the tightening of the associated surface pressure gradient as it pushed through, it will likely bring some continued breezy post frontal winds from the north. So, although RH's will improve, winds will stay breezy (20-25 mph sustained) behind the front on Monday night.

The cold front will knock down temperatures on Tuesday across the Panhandles. Low temperatures Tuesday morning could reach the low 30's in the NW CWA, while high temperatures will dip below average for most of the CWA.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft will persist for the majority of the forecast period. With a deeper trough axis in the SW, with the base extending south of CA, the surface level response to shortwave perturbations will likely be low-pressure centers in NM rather than CO. This would place us in the true warm sector of a weather pattern. This signal seems to persist from Wednesday through at least Saturday at this time. Greater confidence in severity and timing of showers or thunderstorms will be gained in the short term, as the atmosphere will likely still be recovering from the last weather system, persistent cloud cover could reduce severe chances, and the signal/synoptic support for this system is less forthright than the last. However, the signal is there, and if the atmosphere is able to build instability and avoid workover from multiple days of weather, showers and thunderstorms (possibly severe) are on the table.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Brief MVFR conditions to start the 12Z TAF period at KAMA due to low cigs, but should quickly return to VFR by 14-15Z. VFR conditions then expected at all TAF sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts to start, increasing to 20-30 kts with gusts around 40 kts starting around 16-17Z through about 00Z Tuesday before diminishing to 10-20 kts around 06Z and continue through the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

As of late tonight, present radar and ground observations where already seeing the dryline retreat west with some observation sites reporting relative humidity values above 50 percent. Present CAMs have the line stopping roughly around eastern most edge of the Panhandles western most counties. Much like last night, the final resting place of the dry line will be important as areas west of it will see very poor overnight relative humidity recovery that could only reach as high as 20%. However unlike last night, the northern Panhandles look to have add complexity in the form of a weak cold front. Based on the latest CAMs, and it current position, this front looks to move into the Oklahoma Panhandles roughly around midnight to 2 AM and stall somewhere in the northern most row of Texas counties. Areas behind this front will see winds shift to a more northerly direction for the overnight, but with speeds on the lighter side (10 to 15 mph). Instead this front will actually be a benefit as it will have the potential to collapse the dry line for a period of time giving the north an opportunity at great overnight recovery of relative humidity values in the 60 to 75 percent range. The only thing that will need to be watched is that winds could stay breezy in the south central and eastern portions of the Texas Panhandles for the overnight period.

Moving into Monday will a very similar set-up to what was seen yesterday with dryline looking to once again surge into our east. This will see many counties bottom out once again with relative humidity in the single digits that afternoon and evening. However, the still present upper-level jet support as well as the approaching cold front that night, will see an added boost to our winds for the day. At this time present guidance is showing strong indication that southwesterly to southerly winds could reach speeds up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph not out of the question. Meanwhile to our east, we will need to monitor the where dryline officially stops for that afternoon as it is once again a prime forcing mechanism for any thunderstorm potential for the day, which could lead to more lightning started wildfires and erratic and gusty outflow winds. As for the expected cold front, present timing from the CAMs has it arriving in the Oklahoma Panhandle as early as 7 PM Monday evening with a more likely time of around 8 to 9 PM. The arrival of this front will aid in seeing relative rapidly rise across the Panhandles, but at the cost of seeing winds shift a northerly direction with speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph during the overnight period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.