textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Elevated and critical fire weather remains possible for most of the week as the dry and warm pattern holds.

- A weak cold front is expected to push across the Panhandles Wednesday that will result in cooler temperatures Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Upper-level ridging looks to remain in place for most of the Western United Stated thanks to the closed high that models have sitting over Northwestern Mexico. Here in the Panhandles this ridge and high will result in continue dry and warm temperatures that will see afternoon highs rise into the low to mid 60s today. Meanwhile, to our north a new lee-side low is slowly building across the Southern Front Range which has seen our surface pressure gradients increase over the afternoon. This increase has seen southwesterly winds pick up with stations reporting speed 15 to 25 mph and gust upwards of 35 mph. The combination of these winds and continue dry conditions has sparked concerns for fire weather this afternoon. However, concern are only elevated thanks to the fact that temperatures have been slightly cooler and RH values have been more in the teens to 30% range.

Tuesday remains a slight different story as most models are seeing strong advection of warmer and drier into the Panhandles at the lower-levels. This advection is expected to result in our warmest temperatures for the week as afternoon highs reach into upper 70s to low 80s, with a few site potentially breaking records that afternoon. As for RH values, this air mass is expected to see them plummet with values potentially in the single digits by noon Tuesday. With such dry and warm conditions expected to be in play, whether an area will be in elevated or critical fire weather tomorrow will have to rely heavily on the winds. It is here that some uncertainty begins to get involved as models decide how to handle the previously mention lee-side low. At this time most model do expect the low to being pushing eastwards into the Southern Great Plain sometime during afternoon hours. However, how far south the low digs will determine if are winds are going to be gusty or not for the day. Currently, the latest CAMs have been trending towards a more southerly dig that would see portions of the low move across the Panhandles. Should this occur then it likely gusty winds and critical fire would only exist in our far southwestern corner. Meanwhile, the remainder of the Panhandles would deals with more elevated fire concerns that are RH and fuel driven instead.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The Panhandles looks to hold under a northwesterly upper-level flow pattern for majority of the mid-week and weekend. While this upper-level pattern is expected to keep dry and warm conditions present for us, a weak short-wave pushing across Wednesday is likely to give a a slight deviation in our temperatures. At this time, models have been trending for this short-wave to bring with it a cold frontal passage that will give us a brief cool down Thursday back into the 60s. Unfortunately this cool off is not meant to last long with most models seeing us warm right back up for the weekend. One silver lining to this passage is that it does initiate a series of weak surfaces lows to move across the Panhandles over the following days. While no precipitation is likely to follow with these lows, they will help to decouple us from the upper-level jet, which will help regulate our winds during the afternoon hours. This lack of winds will aid in keep fire weather concerns little more in check for this extend dry period, with our culprits more likely to be low RH values and present fuel status.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Dry and warm conditions continue this afternoon with few to scatter cloud decks present. At this time all terminals are expected to stay at VFR conditions through the package. However, surfaces winds are likely to stay breezy through the afternoon and early evening before weakening past sunset. Otherwise, low-level winds shear still remain possible late tonight, but impacts to terminals may be minimal.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ001-006-011-012-016>018-317.

OK...None.