textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- A medium chance (30-50 percent) of showers/storms today across most of the Panhandle, with the northwest Panhandle having lower chances (10-20 percent).

- Continued low to medium chances (20-40 percent) of showers and storms again tomorrow and Saturday for the western and central Panhandles.

-Moderate to Major heat impacts will continue for the next several days as we continue to remain 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Light cu field starting in the western Panhandles suggesting storms this afternoon are right on track for the 3 to 4pm hour. Best area of instability looks to be along I-40 and up into the Borger area and thus have the highest pops this afternoon. Storms are still expected to be small in size, but more scattered in coverage than yesterday. ML CAPE on 18z Sounding is a bit less than yesterday but DCAPE is much higher and we did get some gusts over 50 mph yesterday with the storms. Looks like a strong inverted V sounding than yesterday. Typically would support lower chances for storms to form, given ML CIN around 50-75 J/kg, but we do anticipated that we'll have some forcing assist from a shortwave this afternoon. Main concern with the storms would be the wind threat, but still have concerns that lightning could spark new fires on dry grasses. Like yesterday, storms should be on a downward trend after sunset and a quiet night tonight.

Friday, high pressure will start to retrograde a bit further west towards the Mississippi Valley. This will take our overall flow more south vs southwest, and as a result the next round of showers and storms would be expected more in the western to possibly central Panhandles on Friday. Mainly the focus will be from Amarillo to Guymon and west of that line. The main threats will still continue to be gusty winds and maybe some localized heavy rain that could lead to brief flooding. Will note that areal coverage may be more filled in and that would lower the threat for ignitions due to lightning. Again, storms should wind down after sunset and a quiet night Friday night.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

High pressure on Saturday will be more amplified with flow even more out of the south, that will really isolated the thunderstorm chances to just the west, unless the center of the high can move further east. Still a medium chance of showers and storms for the western Panhandles and as a result those storms will probably just have gusty winds and heavy rain. Sunday through Wednesday looks to be on the dry side as the ridge is more pronounced over the area and the moisture feed that we had been receiving is pushed west into NM. Still will not rule out something clipping our area, if the models have the ridge too far west. Overall temperatures will still be running on the hot side, but currently it looks like we'll hold below heat advisory levels. That being said, the heat impacts could still be on the major side, just given that it's September and the highs would usually be in the upper 80s and we haven't really had a break in these hot temperatures in a very long while.

Weber

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. VCTS conditions are being observed at KAMA and should last for the first hour or two of current TAF before conditions improve. Winds will generally range from SE to SW at 5-15 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.