textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with a low to medium chance (15%) for severe storms that can produce large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

- Saturday further thunderstorms are forecasted for the afternoon and evening with a low chance (5%) for severe storms that can produce large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

- Low chances for even more thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Chances of thunderstorms increase to medium mid next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A surface low has developed to the north of the panhandles this morning. This feature has moved a surface boundary/cold front across the northwest portions of the panhandles. The upper portion of the weather system in the northern plains is shifting to the east today. This will bring a more west to east zonal flow across the southern plains allowing for a subtle wave to move across the region. The interaction between the current surface low and the subtle wave will be the key features that dictate the how the later afternoon to evening thunderstorms unfold for the panhandles. The surface boundary/cold front will separate the more unstable environment to its south and more conditional unstable environment to its north. The area south of the boundary will have instability ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/Kg of CAPE which will occur early in the day. For the areas north of the boundary instability will range from 1000 to 2500 J/Kg with it forming later in the day and into the overnight. Shear in both sectors remains modest at 20 to 40 kt with the shear being stronger towards the later afternoon to evening hours. As for forcing the subtle wave will create forcing mainly towards the southern panhandles when it passes through during the afternoon to evening hours. The northern panhandles will likely see the main weather system clip it this evening and overnight bringing stronger forcing. What all this means is that thunderstorms are expected in the panhandles with them occurring earlier for the southern panhandles and later for the northern panhandles. The timing of the southern thunderstorms will be as early as 4 to 5 PM but more likely from 6 to 11 PM. The northern storm timing will be later starting as early as 7 to 8 PM with most likely 10 PM to 4 AM. The more unstable conditions in the southern panhandles would normally yield more and stronger thunderstorms. However, the amount of forcing is in question with a stronger wave being able to provide for more forcing and thus greater activity. Conversely a weak wave would lead to less forcing and less thunderstorms activity. Now a wild card that has shown on the 18z sounding is that there is a stronger than forecasted cap over the panhandles. If this cap hold strong it can have a negative impact for all the potential convection today. The most likely mode of convection in the southern panhandles is that of multicells to linear thunderstorms. If the wave is potent enough then supercell could also occur, but this is a very low chance given current conditions. In the northern panhandles the storms also favor more linear convection but multicells can occur. The severe potential is better in the southern panhandles where the more unstable conditions will be located. There is a low to moderate chance (15%) for severe storms in this area with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. In the northern panhandles the threats remain the same at large hail and damaging winds but the chances drop to low (5%). A further threat from all the storms will be heavy rainfall which will be higher the stronger a storm becomes. This can be an issue on the many recent burn scars which are more prone to flash flooding. Once all the thunderstorms end this evening or overnight a low bank of clouds can settle across the panhandles once again. It is unlikely that this will lead to any overnight fog or drizzle.

Saturday the southern portion of the weather system passes across the southern plains as the whole of the weather system ejects to the northeast. This will provide the forcing needed to spawn rain showers and thunderstorms in the panhandles. However, the environment will be becoming less unstable as the weather system will be departing. This would bring a more modest instability of 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of CAPE to the panhandles. The shear likewise will see a downtrend to 15 to 30 kt across the panhandles. Overall this better environment for the thunderstorms will be in the western panhandles with conditions becoming a little less favorable to the eastern panhandles. This setup would most likely start thunderstorms in eastern NM to the western panhandles during the afternoon. The earliest time for start is around 4 to 5 PM with storms being most likely 7 PM to 1 AM. Once the storms get going they would generally pass west to east across the panhandles. While the environment is less capable compared to previous days it will still have a low chance (5%) of spawning severe thunderstorms. The main threat from severe storms will once again be large hail and damaging winds. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that can pose a flash flood risk to the fresh burn scars. This can be most troublesome for the burn scars in Randall and Potter Counties as the current guidance still favors this region for heavier rain. This threat will come to an end going into Sunday morning as the weather system departs and the thunderstorms fully come to an end.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Sunday and Monday still has a high chance of a dirty ridge sitting across the southern plains. This would bring a down tick in the in the daily rain showers and thunderstorm chances. Still there will be enough moisture and instability to form afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms.

The next weather system is still looking favorable to arrive in the Great Plains for mid next week. The passage of the weather system will most likely bring the next round of more organized convection. Given the time of year this system will be capable of producing strong to even severe thunderstorms.

After this system moves through the pattern is currently favoring higher pressure to move across the southern plains. This would bring another down tick in any chances for rain showers and thunderstorms going into later next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Primarily VFR conditions should prevail through at least 10Z or so. The caveat to this is the chances for impacts from showers and thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty to the timing to any storms impacting the terminals, but KAMA and KDHT has a chance to be impacted within the first few hours of the period. There is a some probability to thunderstorms impacting KAMA after 06Z. However, thunderstorm activity could stay east of the KGUY/KAMA after 06Z. However, will be monitoring for the potential for low clouds and or fog going into the early Saturday morning.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.