textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

-Thunderstorms will be possible each day Tuesday through Friday where areas of heavy rain and storms could produce localized flooding, especially by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Latest 03Z observations locally across the region shows the outflow boundary from severe thunderstorms further south this afternoon across the Texas South Plains earlier this afternoon has already mixed out in a more stable environment of the southern TX Panhandle as it moved north. Cannot completely rule out a few showers for the far southern TX Panhandle as we go overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning on the periphery of the main H500 broad high centered over central TX (10-20% chance). What we continue to watch is what is developing further aloft, with a developing central Plains H500 ridge to the east of the Panhandles to a deepening H500 trough extending south into Baja California. As a result, water vapor analysis shows sources of moisture transport advection vectors from the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of America starting to funnel up in- between the two aforementioned mid level synoptic features. As these systems becomes more established later in the week, the better moisture transport advection will be in abundance later this week.

In the meantime, going into the day on Tuesday, we will start to see rain chances (~20%) on the periphery of building ridge in the central Plains favoring the southern and western TX Panhandle. Going into Tuesday evening, the main mid level perturbations moving north across eastern NM will help to develop areas of rain with thunderstorms as well.

The main hazards with thunderstorms overall, that will continue into the remainder of the week will be flooding from repeat rounds of rain, with heavy rainfall rates at times. Over the span of a few days, especially for the western Panhandles, this is where exasperate impacts from heavy rainfall may occur.

Going into Wednesday, rain chances will continue to increase from west to east across the Panhandles as the main moisture transport axis sets up across eastern NM into the Panhandles. Highest POPs in the west (70-90%) to lowest POPs in the east (20-40%). High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the lower 70s in the western Panhandles to lower 80s in the eastern Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Rain chances continue for most of the Panhandles Thursday and Friday from the aforementioned synoptic setup for earlier in the week. By the coming weekend into early next week, westerly H500 flow tries to reestablish itself bringing more dry conditions back to the region. Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year before returning to near to above average values this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Brief window roughly between 10-15/16Z for MVFR cigs to reach all TAF sites before quickly returning to VFR levels after 15/16Z to the end of the TAF period. Overall winds will be out of the east and southeast at 5-15 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.