textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Monday. Chances are still low for the Texas Panhandle to have critical fire weather on Tuesday, making elevated concerns more likely.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Today, benign weather conditions continue across the area as surface winds remain light to breezy and sky conditions stay mostly sunny. Tomorrow, 850 mb temperatures rise thanks to the resurgence of warm air advection from the southwest. High temperatures should jump by a magnitude of 8-10 degrees from Sunday to Monday. Expect a range of 60's for the combined panhandles tomorrow afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected across the Texas Panhandle, primarily driven by low RH values and dry fuels. Wind speeds tomorrow will be breezy to strong at times, but with minimal upper level support it will make conditions difficult to reach critical status.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

High pressure and northwesterly flow continues aloft until our next trough arrives on Thursday. The timing of the cold front mentioned in previous forecasts has been pushed back by long range models; now looking to impact the CWA by Thursday morning instead of Wednesday night. The jet stream retreats to the northern CONUS after a brief break in the flow. By the weekend, we look to enter into a quasi-zonal upper level pattern.

Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to host the return of the 70's and even 80's for the region. Chances for critical fire weather remain low on Tuesday, but will still be possible given the very low RH forecast (<10%) and dry fuels. Winds may only be strong in the southwestern Texas Panhandle; but for other locations, surface winds should stay light to breezy for the day. Wednesday should be even more difficult for critical fire weather conditions to manifest despite the warm temperatures. Better minimum RH (>15%) and even lower wind speeds will be the biggest hindrances. By Thursday, a cool down is in order after the cold front moves through. Friday and beyond, as surface winds revert back to southwesterly flow, temperatures will rise once again. This will keep us well above normal as we end the month of February. As dry air lingers aloft in the extended, PoPs will also remain absent for the next 7 days.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions and generally light winds are expected to continue today at all sites. Tomorrow late morning, expect surface winds to pick up from the southwest. Breezy winds will continue through the 18Z period and linger well into the afternoon.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.