textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

-Critical fire weather conditions on Friday due to gusty northerly winds gusting to near 50 mph at times through midday Friday.

-About 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms going into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

After high temperatures reaching as high as 100-106 across many areas of the Panhandles this afternoon, a cold front this evening continues to move south through the Panhandles as of the latest 03Z obs. In the wake of the cold front, winds have shifted to northerly with gusts 40-50 mph behind in its wake. Also ground truth of blowing dust in association with the cold front will result in reduced visibilities at times. Going into the day tomorrow, strong CAA with steady height rises throughout the day will keep gusty winds throughout the daytime hours. Latest hi-res ensembles did show about a 10-20% chance of a rogue wind gust to 60 mph possible for the SE TX Panhandle on the backside of the departing H850 jet exits the Panhandle to the southeast. Along with the gusty northerly winds in the wake of the front, a rather narrow corridor of mid level theta-e advection may result in some drizzle (less than 20% chance) for portions of the southern Texas Panhandle, with little to no QPF amounts expected. Winds should subside going towards sunset Friday evening and gradually veer to southerly by Saturday morning. As the main H500 high centered over far west Texas is compressed with aid from the southern edge of the northern stream jet over the central Rockies, a lee sfc trough should form in SE Colorado. This will result in some breezy southwest winds near the trough axis in the northwestern Panhandles for Saturday. After high temperatures dropping off into the mid 50s to lower 60s for Friday, temperatures will slowly rebound with values ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s for Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Some discrepancies in the latest global model and numerical guidance for looking ahead into next week. We do have a few members of the extended guidance members trying to advect moisture from the Gulf of America out ahead of a mid level perturbation moving east from the Four Corners Region in the main H500 zonal flow. Depending on where the ingredients for lift, moisture, and instability set up, we could see a small chance for showers and thunderstorms setting up towards the middle of next week. High temperatures next week continue to remain above average as we go into early April.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

As of early this morning a low-level cloud deck has been covering the majority of the Panhandles and occasionally dropping ceiling to near MVFR levels. This deck is likely to stick around for a bit this morning before breaking down in the afternoon time frame. As for winds, latest observations continue to see strong gust at both KAMA and KDHT with both site likely to see 45 to 50 kt gusts through the late morning. However, these winds should start to drop off in the afternoon, with much lighter winds following past sunset. Otherwise, reduced visibility due to blowing dust is still a concern, but should not be impactful enough to have terminals drop below VFR criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for Friday across most of the region due to gusty northerly winds. With that said, max RFTI values will range between 3 to 4. Min RH values will drop as low as 15 to 17 percent in portions of the Panhandles. ERC percentiles across all of the Panhandles should be well above the 90th percentile.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-009-010.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006>008- 011>020-317.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.