textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the central and southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.

- Hot temperatures meeting or exceeding 105 degrees are forecast for the eastern Texas Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon today.

- Daily thunderstorm chances and hot day time temperatures continue for the next several days. The greatest impacts from heat will be across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, while the greatest impacts from thunderstorms will be across the northwestern combined Panhandles.

- Forecast trends are being monitored for a potential pattern change mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Not much has changed with regard to temperatures in the short term period. Highs ranging from 98 to 108 are expected for the combined Panhandles. Heat Advisories will likely continue for the southeast Texas Panhandle for the next several days, with NBM guidance suggesting highs may not drop below 105 degrees for these areas until next Wednesday... Fortunately, light winds will keep fire weather concerns at bay at least for the next couple of days.

A short wave trough is expected to move from north to south across portions of our CWA later this afternoon. Behind this boundary theta-e profiles and instability will be favorable enough for a few isolated thunderstorms to form. How far south the trough moves will dictate where precipitation initiates in the afternoon. From there, a southerly storm motion is expected until activity ends with day time heating. There's a low chance that storms from Colorado and Kansas survive and impact our northern zones late tonight and into Saturday morning, but confidence is low amongst the latest CAMs. Tomorrow afternoon, another low chance for storms is forecast mainly across the central and southern Texas Panhandle.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Messaging in the extended period still revolves around when long range models want the upper level ridge to break down. The average GEFS ensemble member suggests high pressure continues over the area much like previous days, while the mean output of ENS ensembles display more pronounced troughing over the CWA. Even the operational Canadian model shows moderate chances for highs to stay in the 80s late next week. While models typically struggle with upper level pattern changes during transitional seasons, there is still stronger evidence we stay above, or at best, around seasonal averages for this time of year. More model consistency is needed for stronger signals of a more pronounced pattern change.

Sunday through Tuesday, hot >100 degree temperatures are expected almost area wide. The southeast Texas Panhandle may even be on a streak of >105 degree days until Wednesday. Wednesday onward, the region is forecast to enter back into a northwest flow regime. PoPs for the rest of the week increase with a NW/SE gradient across the Panhandles; as per usual, favoring the northwest with higher rain chances. Temperatures should also be impacted to some degree, but the magnitude of this downward shift will depend on how strong the upper trough becomes next week.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A weak surface boundary is expected to stall somewhere across the Texas Panhandles this afternoon, which will provide us a lifting mechanism for chances at thunderstorms through late tonight. However, with moisture today lacking in comparison to yesterday, these storms are expected to be much more isolated, with chances of impacts to the terminals not high enough to mention in the current TAF package. Instead, expect for VFR conditions to be the more dominate condition at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-008>010-014-015-018-019.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020-317.

OK...None.