textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms could affect the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle late this morning through the evening. Confidence is low that storms will form, but a few isolated cells would be the most likely outcome.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the western Panhandles. Recent moisture will mitigate critical fire weather conditions despite the breezy winds, dry conditions, and warm temperatures.

Daily thunderstorm chances return Monday through Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Coverage will vary on a daily basis as well.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

As 500 mb heights rise in the short term, cloud coverage will decrease and high temperatures will increase leading to a mostly sunny and warm weekend for the combined Panhandles. Moisture and instability is expected to be favored across the eastern combined Panhandles today. A few 00Z CAMs suggest late morning showers could impact our eastern zones and later this afternoon thunderstorms may form along a north to south oriented surface trough. Confidence and coverage for convection later today remains low at this time, so the NBM was left unchanged. Still, if models trends continue to favor thunderstorms in our east this afternoon, PoPs will need to be incremented in the next forecast package.

Much higher confidence is in place for Sunday to remain quiet with no mentionable precipitation across the CWA. High temperatures should increase to the mid to upper 90s for many locations. A few 100s cannot be ruled out for places along the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon. Relative humidity (RH) should also be low enough to alleviate heat index concerns both today and Sunday. On that same note, RH is also low enough to create potential elevated fire weather concerns today, mainly across the west. Sustained winds will be southwesterly and may be up to 25 mph this afternoon. This helps increase the RFTI values, but ERC percentiles are very low due to residual moisture from previous rain events.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Weak upper level riding continues through the extended period. Perturbations off the axis of the ridge will create convective disturbances for the area. Long range models show a continuation of moisture surging from the Gulf of America. This monsoonal moisture will promote daily thunderstorm chances in the FA. Given weak upper level forcing, coverage of thunderstorms will vary day-by-day, and severity of storms should be low through the long term period. Both high and low temperatures are expected to be near or warmer than average next week. Highs will range in the 80s and 90s, while lows will range in the 50s and 60s.

Rangel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light to breezy southerly winds are expected tonight. Later this morning and early afternoon, surface winds will increase from the southwest. They will prevail through sunset and die down by the night time hours.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.