textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- An isolated thunderstorm or two is still possible in the eastern combined Panhandles this afternoon/evening. A severe potential remains for hail and straightline winds, although confidence is low.

- A cold front tonight will bring temps down to near normal for Sunday. Also may bring some low clouds and light drizzle or light showers to the central and eastern Panhandles.

- Hot temperatures return Tuesday, of which places like Palo Duro may see temps in the lower 100s.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Today, will be watching the lower level moisture supply for potential storms in the east and potential shower activity late in the overnight and Sunday morning time period. For this afternoon, there is still a bit of uncertainty on the amount of surface moisture that will be available for instability in the eastern two stacks of counties. Some CAMs have quite robust couple to three storms popping in the east this afternoon, like the NAM that is more generous with the surface moisture. While others like the HRRR develop one or two storms that quickly move into western Oklahoma before gaining full strength. Not really looking at a true dryline with steep moisture gradients but there will be some dry air in the west fighting for space with the moist air across eastern areas of the Panhandles until a cold front moves through late tonight.

There have been some increasing agreeance between guidance for dewpoints staying well in the 50s this afternoon across the east. SBCAPE values, if any and all CIN erodes, are looking to be between 1500 and 2500 J/Kg. Also, effective bulk shear is progged to be around 35 kts. If a storm can mature and hold its strength ping pong ball to golf ball size hail cannot be ruled out. Bases of these storms are expected to be high with LCLs around 3km making the threat for tornados pretty low while increasing the threat for straightline winds. A storm would have to locally alter the atmospheric conditions for a tornado to form. All in all, the Texas Panhandle should not be dealing with strong to severe storms longer than 2 hours this afternoon/evening as they should move off into western OK fairly quickly. Earliest start time will be around 3 PM but most likely around 5 PM with severe storms pretty much done by 8 PM. That doesn't mean there won't be any activity in the area just the severe aspect with maybe some lingering showery stuff hanging out. Could still potentially get some high based virga showers in the western Panhandles this evening as well with hints of a disturbance from some model guidance. If any of these virga showers do form they will be cable of producing some strong wind gusts with strong inverted Vs in the forecast soundings.

Then tonight, a cold front will fill in from the north, mainly after midnight. This front is expected to bring some breezy winds lasting into the late AM hours and also bring low clouds with chances of light showers to maybe some drizzle.

Tomorrow morning, surface winds are expected to be out of the north around 20-25 mph with some gusts in the 35 to maybe 40 mph behind the front. The higher values of these ranges is expected to favor the western combined Panhandles. Td's behind this front are expected to maintain in the 40s. A shortwave is expected as well that may help some shower development across the combined Panhandles especially in the central to eastern Panhandles where moisture will be deeper. Further west, west to northwest of Amarillo, low clouds may still be present with a little bit of a drizzle. Looking further up in the atmosphere on forecast soundings, the mid to upper levels are looking much drier out over the west to northwestern combined Panhandles. The front itself will bring cooler temperatures, however, cloud cover through much of the daytime will help keep temperatures cooler as well. Highs are progged to be in the 60s. Enjoy the cool weather as it will not last long.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Monday, upper level ridging will start to build back into the area from the west. This will help rebound temperatures into the 80s for Mon afternoon. Tuesday onward, H5 heights rise to near 590 dam allowing for temperatures to reach well into the 90s, even lower 100s for the common hot spots in the TX Panhandle. Palo Duro Canyon may even attempt to reach 105 depending on how much the winds can mix heat trapped at the canyon floor.

The extended period is looking to remain dry. However, Tds in the 40s may lingering across at least some portions of the combined Panhandles and any ripples in the ridge may pop a couple of isolated thunderstorms especially under the heat expected Tue onward. For now do not have PoPs in the forecast until Friday evening that reach near 15 percent.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through about 12Z Sunday. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the north after 06Z Sunday behind a cold front, and pick up to around 20-25 kts lasting through about 18Z Sunday. Gusts may be in the 30 to 40 kt range too between 06Z and 18Z as well. Thunderstorms will be possible in the Panhandles late this afternoon but should stay well east of the terminals. Behind the front tonight some light showers may be present especially in the 12Z to 18Z time period but confidence is low on impacts to the central to western Panhandles. However, some low clouds are expected to bring MVFR conditions after 10Z and lasting through much of the latter half of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.