textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for the eastern Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon today for very hot temperatures at or above 105 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected daily through early next week, cannot rule out some strong wind gusts with some storms.

- Drought conditions continue to deteriorate as rainfall deficits increase across the combined Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Summertime high pressure continues to spin over the ArkLaTex region today with anticyclonic flow expanding across the south central and southeast CONUS. The monsoon/subtropic moisture plume that helped produce storms in the area yesterday remains over the area today, perhaps shifted slightly northwest based on model H7 Theta-E. A weak surface boundary is also being sampled near Clayton to Beaver, and this may be a catalyst for storm development this afternoon (in addition to isolated diurnally driven activity further south and west). MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg along with DCAPE ranging from 1400 to 1800 J/kg will be sufficient for a few single cell to multicell storms capable of strong wind gusts around 60 to 70 mph. Shear remains weak due to weak winds throughout the vertical profile, so storm organization will be limited to mostly short-lived pulse activity. A repeat of today's forecast can be expected for Saturday and Sunday, except confined more to the northwest half of the area and potentially more coverage of storms in the far northwest due to more robust shortwave clipping that area. PWATs near the 90th percentile along with slow storm motion could result in some localized flooding in the Northwest on Saturday and Sunday.

One more day of triple digit heat is expected today: Most locations should easily reach the century mark, with the central and east approaching or exceeding 105 degrees. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM this evening for Palo Duro Canyon and the eastern combined Panhandles. Temperature should come down some tomorrow and Sunday, with 90s being more common. Unfortunately the persistent high pressure aloft has kept most locations in our area very dry over the summer. Percent of normal precipitation is only around 25% to 50% over the last 90 days, which is significant because these months typically drive our yearly precipitation totals. Exceptional drought will continue to expand across the area if widespread rains continue to avoid the area. If there is a glimmer of hope, it will have to be from the El Nino prospects for above normal precipitation in the fall and winter.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The latest ensemble guidance continue to favor a retrograding high pressure center going into next week, shifting the main H5 high over Texas by Monday, then potentially as far west as New Mexico by Wednesday. This will promote a rebound from our slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend to more triple digit numbers early to mid next week. Storm chances will also decrease for at least for a day or two as the high moves overhead Monday into Tuesday, but at least low end chances should return Wednesday into late week as the potential for northwest flow aloft ensues.

Ward

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Isolated to scattered storms can be expected again today mainly favoring the northern terminals (KDHT and KGUY), although can't rule out storm activity at KAMA. These pulse storms could produce locally strong 45 to 55 knot wind gusts near the cores along with lightning and brief moderate rain. Brief wind shifts due to outflow boundaries can also be expected, and not currently reflected in the TAFs. Otherwise expect VFR conditions and southerly winds around 10 to 20 knots to prevail.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010- 014-015-019-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.