textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

-The potential for light snow accumulation Wednesday night into Thursday.

-Well below average temperatures return for Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A bit breezy for portions of the Panhandles this afternoon as sfc-H500 heights steepen with our next system slowly moving south through the northern and central Rockies. Although SW winds have it a bit breezy, temperatures as of the 18Z obs are well into the 50s for many locations, much warmer than this time yesterday. These warmer temperatures will be short lived however. A cold front will move south through the Panhandles tomorrow with high temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in the northern Panhandles to upper 40s in the southern Texas Panhandle.

We continue to watch a H500 positive tilted mid level disturbance move south through the Sangre De Cristos and the SE into the eastern NM Plains by tomorrow night. Along and just downstream of the main trough axis across the western combined Panhandles and portions of the central combined Panhandles, we will see area of light snow and snow showers develop. Could start as brief rain/snow mix, but should quickly change to all snow. The more complex aspects to the forecast will be during the overnight period tomorrow night. Latest 12-18Z hi-res and model guidance is showing the main trough axis shift from southerly to more easterly through 12Z Thursday, almost moving east along the I-40 corridor due to a deeper elongated trough over the SW CONUS steering this second trough in NM more due easterly. As a result, the potential for more widespread lift for light precipitation to form could favor more of the Texas Panhandle. Moisture depth, along with track of the main trough axis will factor to see how much snowfall the area receives. Localized maxima in snow amounts may also depend on mesoscale banding that can set up, if the appropriate moisture is in place. NAM/ECMWF isentropic 295-300K lift shows adequate mixing ratio values advect north into the region ahead of the main trough axis by tomorrow night. Aided by any notable sfc convergence zones in place, we could see small bands of snow traverse portions of the Texas Panhandle late tomorrow night into Thursday morning. In the worst case scenario (90-95th percentile, or less than 10% chance occurrence), we may see a band of light to moderate snow where snowfall rates 0.5"/hr could occur during the Thursday morning commute. So out of all of this, what snowfall totals are we expecting tomorrow night through Thursday? As of the latest forecast, a Trace of snow as far east as the US 83 corridor, to several tenths of an inch for areas west to the NM state line, including Amarillo. Perhaps an inch of two of snow for the far NW Panhandles, near the best areas of lift. Probabilities drop off under 5% for any snowfall totals exceeding 3". The highest totals may come from any prolonged small bands of snow that forms, and at this time, the highest chance of this occurrence would be in the western and/or central TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Leftover snow showers will traverse east across the southern Texas Panhandle associated with the main H500 trough. In the wake of the cold front and snow, highs on Thursday will be well below average for early December. Dry conditions with UL subsidence will keep the southern High Plains mostly dry, with temperatures near to even slightly above average later this week into the coming weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. The only exception would be the potential of MVFR cigs to move into KGUY towards the end of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the south backing to northerly closer to the end of the TAF period. Winds will start for KAMA around 15-25 kts with higher gusts at times before subsiding to 5-15 kts. Winds for KDHt/KGUY will be 5-15 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.