textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions today, with critical fire weather Thursday. Strong winds may also extend the fire weather threat into Friday, despite the lower temperatures and higher RH values.

- Record heat persists in the Panhandles through tomorrow. A few locations have a moderate chance to hit 100 degrees, especially on Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Record-level heat continues for the Panhandles as an upper-level high, currently centered over the NM Bootheel, nudges closer with associated increasing heights aloft. Mid-90s F highs this afternoon will be common, with Palo Duro Canyon likely to top the century mark and a Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM CDT. KAMA's forecast high of 95F would obliterate the previous daily record of 87F! Although winds are fairly light today, Elevated fire weather conditions exist due to the low RHs.

Wind speeds actually increase overnight as a low-level southwesterly jet develops. This current round of heat peaks as the short-wave trough currently off of southern CA approaches. This will enhance the westerly wind component and add a bit of downslope warming. High temps reach the upper 90s-102F, with better confidence now that a strong cold front will not reach the OK Panhandle until around 00Z Fri (7 PM CDT Thu). Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Thursday in the Palo Duro Canyon area. The breezy to gusty winds combined with RHs falling to the single digits will yield Critical fire weather conditions; see below for more details.

There is good model agreement now on the aforementioned timing of arrival of the cold front from the NNE Thursday evening. Winds could reach Wind Advisory thresholds (35 mph sustained/50mph gusts) after midnight Thursday night, but will let evening shift take a closer look. Finally, it's not inconceivable that a few sprinkles could fall along and just behind the front, but with even the most bullish guidance (MET) indicating PoPs of only 20% and QPF basically zero across the board, will not mention in the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Strong northerly winds persist through much of the day on Friday, ushering in much cooler air. Temps will struggle to reach 60F, and forecast guidance has been trending a bit cooler. The cooler temps will also boost RH, but the northerly wind shift could be problematic for any fires that start on Thursday. Blended guidance shows temps falling to near freezing Saturday morning across the northern Panhandles, with the MET for AMA down to 29F. Temperatures rebound nicely in the afternoon, into the upper 60s and 70s, as southerly low- level flow redevelops. The warming trend continues into Sunday amid a modest upper-level ridge cresting over the region along with southwesterly surface winds. Upper 80s-near 90F reappear.

A pattern shift is still on tap heading into the next work week, though still a lot of uncertainty on details and potential impacts, with a dry forecast still pretty likely through Tuesday. West-coast large scale troughing develops, with several short- wave troughs ejecting out ahead of it. The first of these appears to pass on Monday, which is forecast to maintain the warm temps and SW breezes, though low-end PoPs are showing up in the guidance for Monday evening. Model consensus is for another short-wave ridge axis to pass on Tuesday, out ahead of the large-scale trough, with the next trailing Pacific front increasing winds again for the mid-week period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Main aviation hazard will be low-level wind shear developing overnight, due to a low-level jet from the SSW, as depicted in RAP forecast soundings. Otherwise, very high confidence in VFR prevailing at all terminals for the next 24 hours, with even high cloud coverage very spotty. North-northeasterly winds have filtered into the NW Panhandles but should shift more southerly as the afternoon deeper mixing ensues. Gusty winds return to KAMA by late morning Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Fine fuels remain extremely dry, with ERCs currently near the 97th percentile across the Panhandles. Combined with record heat/low RHs (outside of Friday and Saturday) and bouts of breezy to windy conditions over the next week, fire weather concerns will persist. The Fire Weather Watch for Thursday was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning after collaboration with neighboring offices. Widespread RFTI's of 3-4 are forecast, driven mainly by RH. A strong back- door cold front arrives overnight Thursday, bringing much cooler air but also strong NNE winds, which could create spread issues for any fires igniting on Thursday. In addition, dewpoints are also lower behind the front, so the RH relief is not all that great...still bottoming out in the 15-25% range. Discussed a potential Fire Weather Watch for Friday with neighboring offices, but didn't have the confidence just yet. High confidence in at least Elevated conditions, however. Near-critical conditions also appear likely in the NW Panhandles on Saturday, as lee troughing kicks up SW winds. Sunday and Monday look like relatively down days with lighter winds, despite temps climbing and RHs decreasing again. Stronger winds in the mid-to-latter part of next week pose potential for more Critical conditions.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ001>020- 317.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ001>003.