textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Fog, potentially dense for the southwestern Texas Panhandle, is expected tonight through Saturday morning.

- Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely on Sunday across the Panhandles.

- Quiet and dry weather is expected during the work week leading up to and including Thanksgiving day.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fog will likely be ongoing across portions of the western Panhandles tonight into Saturday morning. The 22/00z HREF continues to paint the southwestern Panhandles, including Amarillo and I-40 from Amarillo to the NM/TX state line and areas further south with the best chances for fog. There continues to be 50 percent or greater probabilities for visibilities of a half mile or less, so patchy to areas of dense fog will be possible. Currently there are no plans on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory but trends will be monitored into tomorrow morning to see if one is necessary.

Delightful weather is in store for the rest of the day on Saturday once the fog and low clouds clear out by mid day. Highs during the afternoon are forecast to increase into the 60s with light westerly winds around 10 mph or less. The nice weather will not last long though, as a change is expected going into Sunday morning.

As of this writing, a low pressure system continues to spin off of the coast of Baja California and is expected to finally move onshore by Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, the center of low pressure at H500 should be moving over western Arizona. The southerly flow over west Texas will aid in allowing moisture transport from the Pacific and Gulf of America to move in over the Panhandles. PVA associated with shortwaves out ahead of the main weather system will provide lift to generate showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Rainfall is almost guaranteed for most areas with PoP chances ranging from 70-95 percent area wide through the early evening hours. Even though rain chances are so high, this is a scenario where it is a high PoP, but low precipitation total forecast. Most locations across the Panhandles only have a 10-25 percent chance to exceed a half inch of rain by Sunday evening, but there are still some areas having upwards of 50 percent chances. If the activity can tap into the low amounts of instability, thunderstorms may form and moderate rainfall may lead to some of those locally higher amounts. The low pressure system should quickly lift northeast with the center of the low being over the Central Plains by midnight Monday morning and rain showers/storms should be east of the Panhandles at that point.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Pleasant weather is anticipated for the days leading up to Thanksgiving next week! For Monday, the forecast area will be on the backside of the weather system that brought the additional rainfall on Sunday. Downslope winds along with clear skies are forecast which will lead to temperatures rising back into the 60s across the region during the afternoon. The Panhandles will be located on the southern periphery of a H500 low pressure system moving southeast out of Alberta towards the Northern Plains by Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will propel a cold front southwards across the Plains and temperatures during the middle of the work week may be slightly below average. With that low pressure system passing hundreds of miles to the north, dry conditions are expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day. In fact, Thanksgiving day appears to be quite mild at this time, featuring light winds and highs near average for late November.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period for KGUY/KDHT, with IFR conditions to start the TAF period for KAMA. Low vsbys accompanied by patchy FG at times being reported to start for the TAF period at KAMA. Low cigs and patchy FG are expected through about 14-16Z for KAMA, before conditions return to VFR levels, and should continue throughout the remainder of the 12Z TAF period. Overall winds will start light and variable, becoming more southwesterly at 5-10 kts for the second half of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.