textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Enhanced severe thunderstorm risk for the Panhandles this afternoon and evening for 60-80 mph severe wind gust potential.

- Heat Advisory for PDC today with temps at or above 105 degrees with some 105 degree heat to possibly return this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Latest surface obs this morning shows an outflow boundary from convection in Kansas earlier this morning has just about stalled within the I-40 corridor from just northwest of Amarillo, trailing southeast into the SE TX Panhandle. In-conjunction with the main H850 (+) theta-e gradient in the same vicinity with cross flow, this could be enough to have some activity try to develop along this boundary later this afternoon during peak daytime heating. Early on, we will have some limiting effective shear around 20 kts. Therefore, along any old sfc boundary, diurnally heating will provide more pulse type thunderstorms with brief periods of heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

The main activity to watch closely will still be the developing a multi-cell cluster of thunderstorms in the Sangre de Cristo region that should propagate east and southeast into the combined Panhandles. Starting most likely between 18-21Z, upslope flow along the NM/CO high terrain with Tds in the 50s will generate storms. With H500 flow out of the NW of 20-35 kts on the periphery of the main H500 high centered over southern NM in the latest RAP analysis, storms should easily move into the combined Panhandles, especially going past 00Z. Storm mode will be loose line of storms, that could merge if multiple segments form and move into the Panhandles. What we are watching in particular is the forward propagation velocities of these complex of storms as they progress through the Panhandles. With DCAPE values over the Texas Panhandle in particular around 1500-1800 J/kg along with accelerated momentum from the line of storms themselves in an effective shear environment around 30 kts by 00Z, strong wind gusts in the 70-80 mph range cannot be ruled out. Strongest winds will be associated with the line, and in particular most likely the apex of said line as it moves east. MOst likely approaching sunset, man outflow and/or cold pool should race out ahead of storms which should decrease severe wind gusts probabilities continuing forward into the evening hours. Overnight tonight, any leftover activity should quickly exit to the east and northeast into central Kansas and western Oklahoma.

So yes, the main threat with these severe thunderstorms will be potential wind gusts of 60-80 mph. Secondary threats does include some large hail up to 1" in diameter with the more robust updrafts early on, before storms line out. Locally heavy rain with these strong thunderstorms, along with some training of storms from potential repeat rounds of storms in 1.1-1.3" PWAT environment could result in localized flash flooding to watch closely, especially after sunset.

Depending how worked over the environment is after storm activity from today takes place, a repeat of showers and storms is possible for Wednesday, favoring the western Panhandles for any severe chances, closest to the NM stateline. Cannot completely rule out any severe storms in the western Panhandles with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 80s in the NW Panhandles to upper 90s in the far SE TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

After a couple of cooler days with highs in the 90s on Thursday and Friday, unfortunately it looks like we will see a return of triple digit heat next weekend. The main H500 high will shift back and center over the southern High Plains. Northwest flow will keep evening storm chances through Friday, but activity should be more limited over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. VCTS conditions then arrive as early as 00Z for TAF sites before PROB30 is then introduced ranging from 03-09Z at all TAF sites where erratic wind gusts from thunderstorms are possible. Between 09-12, VFR conditions should then return to all TAF sites and remain throughout the TAF period. Overall winds will be out of the east, becoming northerly at 5-15 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.