textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Very dry conditions have lead to elevated fire weather conditions still present tonight and early Sunday morning.

- A cold front is expected move through Sunday morning and create gusty winds and critical fire weather for the afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures follow Monday before our hot and dry weather returns for the mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

As of late tonight present observations across the Panhandles have seen conditions still very dry with relative humidity values still holding below 15 percent across the Western Panhandles. Unfortunately, values are not expected to increase too much more over night with most locations going to be lucky to reach into the 20 percent range. This poor overnight recovery is going to allow for elevated fire weather conditions to stay present tonight, especially as the winds start to increase as the front moves into the Oklahoma Panhandles around 6 to 7 AM Sunday morning. This early arrival will aid in helping regulate temperatures a bit more with afternoon highs closer to the 70s than the mid 80s that were initially expected. However, the bigger concern will likely be more focused on the northerly winds pushing across the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon time frame. While latest CAMs are not showing a lot of upper-level support, there is indication in the low-levels of the atmosphere to at least support winds speed of 25 to 30 mph with gust upwards of 40 to near 50 mph at times. Despite relative humidity values expected to be on the rise behind the front, these winds will be enough to trigger another Red Flag Warning for the combine Panhandles. These winds may also produce some localized patchy blowing dust at times, especially in areas that have seen recent wildfires. Thankfully these winds do look to fall off a little after sunset that evening, with cooler and quieter weather looking to follow Monday as highs sit closer to the low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Model agreement continues to see the upper-level high hold strong with present trends seeing it slowly drift eastward over the course of next week. With this high pressure staying so dominate, look for dry and hot conditions to hold for most of the week. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper-level high is expected to slowly progress over Texas proper. This will allow for temperatures to rise again with afternoon highs returning to the 80s and 90s clear into Thursday. Of course, such warm and dry conditions will likely see fire weather concerns continue, but a lack of winds will likely keep these concerns elevated to low-end critical at best. Thankfully hints of a pattern shift does present itself as we move into the weekend as models set up another upper-level trough to drag a cold front across the Panhandles Friday. However, there is still quite a bit of model uncertainty on whether it could spell full the end of this high pressure system with current guidance seeing temperatures warm once again Sunday. For now, look for a cool down to follow with afternoon highs closer to the 70s for Friday and Saturday with a chances to be back in the 80s by Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

As of late tonight, latest observations have seen surface winds calm slightly with speeds around 10 to 15 kt. However, winds are expected to pick up again with arrival of the cold early Sunday morning with potential to see northerly winds gust to around 30 to 35kt at the terminals. Localized blowing dust may be present alongside these winds, but confidence is not high that any terminals will be impacted. Otherwise, look for all terminals to remain VFR through the package.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

For tonight, latest observation are still maintaining winds out of the southwest with speed on lighter side at around 10 to 15 mph. The bigger concern is the still very dry conditions with present stations still reporting values under 15%. Overnight recovery tonight is expected to be very poor with values only rising to around the 20 percent range at best. This will likely keep elevated fire weather conditions still present tonight with conditions only getting worse as winds will look to pick back up to with the arrival of the cold front. At this time, latest CAMs have started to trend towards an arrival time for the cold front in the Oklahoma Panhandle at around 6 to 7 AM. The earlier time may see temperature slightly cooler than initially expected, but still capable of 70s for most of the Panhandles with mid 80s still possible in the far Southern Texas Panhandle. Behind the front this afternoon, northerly winds are expected to be around 20 to 25 mph with gusts nearing the 50 mph at times. Despite relative humidity values also rising behind the front, the still warm temperatures and the winds will be more than enough to create a critical fire weather environment with Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values reaching upwards of 4 to 5 (out of 10).

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.