textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast for the southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.

- Low chance for light rain showers/sprinkles from late this afternoon through early this evening.

- Warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday before a pattern chance leads to cooling temperatures and at least low chances for precipitation.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The latest water vapor imagery combined with H500 RAP analysis depicts a weak upper level low pressure system moving east/southeast across southern Colorado late this morning. This feature will eventually trek over the Panhandles later on today. Before that occurs, temperatures will once again warm up into the 60s to low 70s across the region this afternoon. A weak front is currently sitting over the Panhandles, which is leading to weak and variable winds in its wake. To the southwest of the front, breezy west to northwest winds are forecast for today which will lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the southwestern Texas Panhandle.

As the upper low traverses over the region later on today, there appears to be just enough moisture to generate light rain showers that should move from northwest to southeast. The main issue continues to be all of the dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere and at the surface. The dry air will likely lead to a lot of the rain evaporating before reaching the surface, but still cannot rule out some sprinkles or occasional light rain. Most CAMs are depicting these showers, however, the probability for 0.01 inches of rain or more is only around 20-30 percent. With all that being said, if you do see rain this evening, do not expect very much to accumulate. Gusty downburst winds will also be possible with any of these rain showers today.

That system quickly moves off to the east on Saturday and ridging extending from the southern US all the way up to the Prairie Provinces of Canada moves in over the Panhandles once again. Above average highs are forecast for Saturday along with very light winds around 10 mph or less.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The upper level ridge has a very high chance of remaining over the area through the first half of the next work week. This pattern will lead to the continued warm and dry conditions for the Panhandles. There may be a few breezy days during this time frame, mainly on Sunday, as surface low pressure systems strengthen during the daytime hours. The breezy winds could lead to elevated fire weather conditions on either of these days through Tuesday.

An initial low pressure system is still forecast to dig south towards California/Baja California mid week before racing northeast towards the southern Rockies and High Plains. Model guidance is inconsistent and does not agree with the track of this system or how much moisture may be in place as it moves over the southern High Plains, but there is at least a chance this system brings moisture to the Panhandles for Wednesday/Thursday. Confidence is higher in that cooler air will move in behind the initial system as another stronger trough digs south behind the first system. Just how cold we could get remains uncertain, but the mean NBM values at this point are near to slightly below average highs going into early next weekend. Additionally, cannot rule out more chances for moisture from this trough, depending on moisture quality and the track of the trough.

Muscha

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

An area of showers with occasional lightning is moving over KDHT this evening, and is expected push within the vicinity of KAMA over the next few hours. This could also be accompanied with brief, sporadic stronger wind gusts over 40 kts. Amendments to the TAFs may be needed as the swath of precipitation evolves. Once this clears out, VFR conditions are forecast at all sites with winds generally less than 10 kts.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.