textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Monday due to breezy and dry conditions. Brief, low-end critical fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out.

- Showers will be possible late Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Frost or freeze conditions will be possible Wednesday night across the central and northern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A surface low, present over southwestern Kansas as of 8:30 PM, will stay in place throughout the night while maintaining its strength or slightly weakening. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is digging southward off the coast of California which will pump a subtropical ridge up over the High Plains. As flow strengthens over the Rockies on Monday, the surface low will strengthen in the vicinity of eastern Colorado/western Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle. A steepening pressure gradient will lead to breezy westerly winds south of the Canadian River Valley, while areas closer to the low will see weaker winds. The downsloping westerly winds will promote very dry conditions with temperatures in the 80s to mid-90s. This will lead to elevated to potentially low-end critical fire weather conditions for the southern Texas Panhandle. Cannot rule out a dry thunderstorm with virga in the southeastern Texas Panhandle where some mid-level moisture is present while convective temperatures are forecast to be reached along with mid-level forcing moving into the area. However, the chance for this to happen is around 15% or less.

The surface low will move off to the east Monday night as a cold front moves in from the north. Ahead of the front, winds will remain breezy out of the west overnight leading to warm temperatures for most of the night. In fact, it's plausible that some locations in the far southern Texas Panhandle could stay in the 70s until near sunrise. The front should be through the Panhandles, though it may retreat some throughout the day. Mid-level forcing and mid-level moisture will arrive in the late afternoon hours of Tuesday, with the northern combined Panhandles favored to see the greater quality of both. That said, cannot rule out a round of showers or thunderstorms across much of the area from the late afternoon through the mid-evening.

Dry air aloft is favored to advect into the Texas Panhandle, and perhaps even a part of the southern Oklahoma Panhandle, after 12 AM Wednesday, likely to end any ongoing rain for that area. Meanwhile, favorable moisture and forcing should persist over a portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas/southeastern Colorado, suggesting rain may continue through the rest of Thursday night for that area.

Overall, outside of a potential isolated thunderstorm, rain rates will be light, thus, overall QPF through this short-term period will likely be less than 0.20".

Frost conditions cannot be ruled out in the northern Panhandles if the currently forecast 10-15 mph winds end up being weaker.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

An upstream trough over the central Rockies will be digging south, toward the Panhandles, Wednesday morning. This could draw mid-level moisture into the Panhandles from the north as mid-level forcing arrives. Another round of light rain move into the northern and possibly central Panhandles throughout Wednesday. With no meaningful instability expected, this activity will likely be light rain.

There is some hint among mesoscale models, CAMs, and some GFS and ECMWF ensembles that the front could retreat some Wednesday afternoon which would allow for the southwestern TX Panhandle to warm into the 70s. Meanwhile the rest of the Panhandles may ultimately see their high temperatures occur Wednesday morning.

Another push of cold air will move in from the north Wednesday evening, and we could see some snowflakes mix in with the rain in the northwestern combined Panhandles. However, no accumulation is expected.

Frost and Freeze conditions look likely Wednesday night across much of the CWA, and some locations in the northwestern Panhandles may even see a hard freeze.

The system will move off to the east on Thursday as a surface high jogs off to the southeast. This will result in westerly downsloping winds across the Panhandles on Thursday which will allow temperatures to rebound quickly into the 70s, then upper-70s to 80s on Friday.

An upper-level trough is favored to dip down from the Northwestern US into the Central Rockies this weekend. This has potential to bring rain to the Panhandles, but it will depend on moisture return. Given the way that this Spring has gone, am very reluctant to believe it at this point. It will be worth monitoring though.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Low-level wind shear is ongoing but should cease at all terminals by 13z (Amarillo) or 08z (Dalhart and Guymon). Winds will become breezy during the day Monday but will begin to weaken starting around 01z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday due to breezy winds along with dry conditions and high temperatures in the 80s to mid-90s. Widespread cirrus is expected across the Panhandles which should help keep winds from maximizing their potential, but it is possible that the cirrus will not be thick enough to do that. Therefore, cannot entirely rule out low-end critical fire weather conditions for the southern two rows of Texas Panhandle counties (i.e., Deaf Smith-Collingsworth counties, Oldham-Wheeler counties). There is a very low chance for a dry thunderstorm in the far southeastern Texas Panhandle in the mid-late afternoon.

A cold front will move in late Monday evening through tonight which will shift the winds from westerly to northerly. Winds may be breezy for a few hours behind the front.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.