textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue today in the Texas Panhandle due to very dry conditions and strong winds. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible for the next few day this week.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the far eastern panhandles. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazard.

Strong winds are expected behind a cold front Wednesday morning. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and potentially greater are expected.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Warm, dry, and windy conditions continue across the area today. The propagation of multiple surface lows these next couple of days will promote strong to breezy winds in the SE quadrant of the feature. This is where the pressure gradient is expected to be the tightest. Since these lows are forming off the high terrain and traversing north of the Texas Panhandle, wind speeds will be the greatest in our southern zones, while the Oklahoma Panhandle will be under the influence of lighter, more variable winds. Critical fire weather conditions remain in effect this afternoon across much of the Texas Panhandle. For more details, see the FIRE WEATHER discussion below. With a strong thermal gradient across the CWA present this afternoon, temperatures will easily climb into the 80's. Records at KAMA and KBGD are still in contention for being broken, but we still have not done it at the time of this writing.

A surge of moisture is expected to enter in the High Plains tonight. The timing of it's arrival has been pushed back later according to 12Z guidance, so showers have a lower chance of occurring this morning. Still, some CAMs hint at the potential for some sprinkles before noon, but there's poor confidence in where they will occur given how isolated the coverage is expected to be. PoPs have subsequently been reduced below 15% until 1 PM.

By the afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form across the combined panhandles. Today's 12Z models show a faster progression of the upper level low, which promotes an eastward shift for the Theta-E moisture axis. Now, the time frame for moisture to stay within our CWA is much more limited, leading to drier forecast solutions for QPF. Thunderstorm chances, alongside the severe potential, are expected to shift eastward into western Oklahoma. While afternoon PoPs are also on the down trend, the potential is still present for a few storms to affect the eastern half of our CWA in the afternoon through the early evening. Given sufficient lapse rates, MLCAPE, and outstanding 0-6 km bulk shear, conditions are present for thunderstorms to quickly become severe. The caveat is that these mesoscale conditions are more prevalent the further east you go. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat for any storm that becomes severe in our area.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Wednesday morning, a cold front is expected to move through the region. 12Z model runs show that 850 mb winds and surface wind gusts have taken a considerable increase in magnitude behind the front. Forecast wind speeds now favor the the 12Z HRRR and the NBM 75th percentile, with sustained ranges between 35-39 mph and gusts up to 50 mph for some locations. Wind related products may become necessary down the line, as some CAMs like the HRRR and RAP suggest wind gusts could reach up to 60 mph. Temperatures will drop back down into the 50's and 60's for afternoon highs. Despite the cooler weather, fire weather conditions may be present purely due to how strong the winds are forecast to be. Still, minimum RH values have the chance to drop as low as 20%. The only issue is the timing for the lowest RH values do not line up with the timing for the strongest winds.

Thursday onward, we expect to warm up and continue to dry out. Fire weather conditions will prevail as a prevalent threat for the remainder of the work week. Long range models suggest that our next cold front could arrive at the start of next week. Moisture still looks to remain limited at the end of the extended.

Rangel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will weaken tonight then become breezy out of the south tomorrow during the day. There is a very low chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A Red Flag Warning is still in effect for most of the Texas Panhandle through 9 PM this evening. Dewpoint temperatures had to be decreased from previous forecasts, as the NBM was still too high with minimum RH values today. So far this afternoon, minimum dewpoint temperatures are verifying across the CWA, but we still have the potential to see them drop a few more degrees this afternoon. Therefore, minimum RH may bottom out below 5% for many areas in the Texas Panhandle. RFTI values of 7 are already being achieved across the central Texas Panhandle, with many more locations ranging between 4-6. Peak wind gusts so far today have reached up to 43 mph, and the potential for 35-40 mph gusts continue until the evening hours. The wind direction will steadily be backing from W to SW by around 7 PM.

Tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are not expected; however, we still have the potential to become elevated if the probability for thunderstorms decreases. Current RFTI values are purely RH driven, as surface winds are simply breezy ranging between 10-20 mph across the whole FA.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...None.