textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Further daily chances of thunderstorms will continue Saturday through Tuesday and there is a low chance for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. - Presence of high amounts of moisture today through Sunday may lead to localized flooding in the Panhandles from the thunderstorms. - Potential for widespread hot conditions to return Wednesday with triple digits highs returning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A good bit of storm activity across the northern combined Panhandles overnight, may have left some residual outflow boundaries that may contribute to additional thunderstorms this afternoon. Models suggest at least some positive H7 theta-e advection coming into the central to southern combined Panhandles today, across the central to southern TX Panhandle, south of a surface boundary. Although flow aloft is expected to be mostly zonal over the area, a mid to upper level trough is expected to start digging into the Northern to Central Great Plains as a Hudson Bay Low deepens. This is expected to send some ripples in the flow aloft and may help thunderstorm activity this afternoon. It is also expected to help send a cold front into the area tonight. A prefrontal boundary wind shift along with residual outflow boundaries are likely to be the main driver for lift. Depending on where these boundaries exist by noon today will determine the locations for best chances to see thunderstorms as the better theta-e stays south of the boundary.

Hot temperatures are expected once again this afternoon with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Palo Duro Canyon currently have a Heat Advisory in effect for temperatures topping out at 105. Even to the north temperatures are to remain warm as the main cold front is not anticipated to impact afternoon highs. The heat along with the moisture present may lead to some instability for severe storms once again. But this will depend on the timing of storms and recovery from last nights activity.

The cold front overnight will bring about some relief, temperature wise, for Sunday afternoon. Sunday's highs are progged to top out in the low to mid 70s, which is quite cool for this time of year. These cooler temperatures will partly be from CAA but also from quite a bit of cloud cover and continued chances for showers to linger behind the front well into Sunday as monsoonal like moisture continues to pump into NM then into the Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

An above average temperature trend continue in the long term period. While precipitation chances do not appear as widespread as they are in the current short term, chances do exist for a number of days in the extended period.

The H250 trough begins to retreat northward next week. High pressure will attempt to build in from the south, but most models still suggest we remain under zonal flow for the next 7 days. A steady ramp up in high temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday, but the FA will still be below to near average for highs on those days. Strong warm air advection looks to overtake the region on Wednesday. Clear skies, low relative humidity, and breezy southwest winds will allow temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 100s for the day. After the extreme heat, the CWA should be subject to troughing for the remainder of the week. These fronts will help drop highs back into the 80s and 90s. While Wednesday looks dry, the rest of the days this week look to host some amount of thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. The overall coverage appears low at this time, so PoPs will also be <40%, except on Monday, where scattered afternoon storms seem possible.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to affect all TAF sites this evening and tonight. KAMA and KDHT are where the higher chances for thunderstorms are in this TAF package. PROB30s still exist for KGUY, but the likelihood for impacts is a bit more uncertain for the terminal.

Tonight, MVFR ceiling are forecast to affect KAMA and KDHT after the cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are even possible at the KAMA terminal later tomorrow morning due to high moisture content residing over the area. Patchy fog is possible tomorrow morning as well, but confidence is lower due to rain showers being the more likely outcome. MVFR ceilings should linger at KAMA and KDHT for the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

Strong winds will continue to affect all sites for the next 24 hours. They'll continue from the southwest this afternoon; but once the cold front moves through, they will become northeasterly. While winds will remain strong behind the front they have the potential to become severe (>50 kts) and sporadic if influenced by a severe thunderstorm this evening.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.