textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Likely (80-90%) a dry and pleasant week ahead.

- Temperatures rise into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Quiet weather is expected through the beginning of the work week. Although a ridging pattern is setting up across the central US, a low-pressure center will retrograde southwest toward Texas. For the Panhandles, this means around average or slightly below average high temperatures (high 80's to low 90's), and clear skies. The uncertainty lies is daily thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. While Tuesday seems less likely, westward tracking storms from Oklahoma could track into the eastern Panhandles in the evening. Wednesday, surface moisture seems to slightly improve from continued SE flow. However, continued dry mid-levels and negative H700 ThetaE advection will likely suppress any thunderstorm that may attempt initiation due to reaching convective temperatures. Although that seems to be the most likely scenario, any outflow boundaries as a result from convection south of our CWA that make their way into the Panhandles could provide a lifting mechanism to spark isolated pulsing thunderstorms on Wednesday, but confidence remains very low.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The Rex Block in place should provide nice weather throughout this week, continuing seasonably average temperatures and most likely dry conditions. Southerly flow returns by the end of this week, which will increase daily high temperatures heading into the weekend. H700 ThetaE and PWAT values surge with this southerly wind shift as well, which could point toward any showers/thunderstorms to be efficient rain producers, however a clear lack of forcing still persists. Some guidance suggests that the daytime convection in southern Texas could translate as far north as the southern Texas Panhandle on Thursday and Friday afternoons with this southerly wind shift. Confidence in the most likely scenario for those days will increase as CAMs begin to model that far out.

The beginning of next week could mark a shift in the weather pattern. Some long-range modeling suggests that the redeveloped upper-level high pressure center will propagate west, placing the panhandles on the easterly side. This could induce northwesterly upper-level flow, which is a weather pattern typically conducive of lee-side perturbations in the flow. This in turn creates lee- side surface lows, and brings weather back to the Panhandles. Uncertainty is high, as model agreement is low in the position of the high pressure center going into next week. However, the signal is now being reflected in some ensembles as well, and will be monitored throughout the week.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southeast to Easterly winds are expected at 6 to 12 knots.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.