textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Windy and very dry conditions are expected Sunday which result in critical fire weather across the combined Panhandles. Blowing dust may result in reduced visibility.

- Breezy and very dry conditions are favored on Monday. This will likely result in elevated to critical fire weather.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Wednesday evening through at least Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A front is stalled out across the southwestern Texas Panhandle with generally easterly winds behind the boundary. As of 8 PM, outflow from severe thunderstorms in northern Texas/southern Oklahoma is pushing northwest toward the Panhandles. High-resolution models such as the 00z HRRR depicts this outflow, and the moisture surge associated with it, will continue into the Panhandles tonight while gradually losing momentum and moisture quality. Low clouds can be expected across much of the Panhandles, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a trough near California this evening, and another trough over the Pacific Northwest that is moving southward. The trough near California will move eastward through tonight and into the Southwestern US Sunday morning. A surface low will begin developing Sunday morning in northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado and more rapidly strengthen Sunday afternoon to somewhere between a 990mb-995mb low. As the surface low deepens and southwesterly winds strengthen, the boundary, which by this time is effectively a moisture boundary/dryline, will begin to get pushed east. Model trends over the past 24-48 hours have been increasing the chance that the dryline may still be in the central or eastern Panhandles by 1 PM. These trends can likely be traced back to the guidance not seeing how aggressively today's front pushed through; guidance did not have the widespread easterly surface winds today and tonight which will advect in a relatively greater moisture profile.

Winds will strengthen more significantly in the afternoon as the surface low strengthens and the jet moves more into the Panhandles. Expecting wind gusts between 30-35 mph with wind gusts 45-55 mph, locally higher possible, in the western Panhandles with a 20-50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 55 mph. High-end critical fire weather conditions can be expected in the western and central Panhandles. Meanwhile in the eastern Panhandles, there is still some uncertainty as to whether or not the dryline actually moves into western Oklahoma. Latest guidance has about a 40% chance for the dryline to remain in the eastern Panhandles through through afternoon, but most of the CAMs do hang the dryline up in the eastern Panhandles. Currently slightly favoring this solution coming to fruition. This would result in higher relative humidity values in the east, but winds will still be on the breezy side at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Despite the higher RH, the winds may still cause elevated fire weather conditions east of the dryline. Owing to the strong surface convergence, and possibly with an assist from mid- level forcing, there's a 2-3 hour window in the mid/late afternoon where a shower or thunderstorm could develop along the dryline. Several CAMs show attempts at convective initiation but struggles to sustain any attempt; this could be a result of negative 700mb theta- e advection that's expected in the late afternoon hours. Virga can be expected from any shower or thunderstorm with the potential for strong downdraft winds. If a thunderstorm can be sustained, conditions may be present for it to become strong to severe. However, this is a scenario of exceptionally low confidence. The most likely scenario is that the area east of the dryline stays dry, and the less-likely-but-still-possible scenario is failed convective initiation attempts. The dryline will certainly push out of the Panhandles Sunday evening.

The shortwave trough will move off into the Midwest on Monday, but seasonably strong upper-level winds will remain over the Panhandles. A surface low will develop in northeastern New Mexico and once again steepen the surface pressure gradient leading to breezy winds, especially in the southern Texas Panhandle. This will lead to another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions with the most favored area being south of the Canadian River. A cold front is set to move in Monday afternoon or evening; there are some rather significant timing differences at this time.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday behind the front as the upper- level pattern turns quasi-zonal. Heading into Wednesday, a trough will approach California/Baja California with a strengthening subtropical jet over the Panhandles. Mid-level and low-level moisture will increase throughout the day on Wednesday, and mid- level forcing could arrive as early as Wednesday evening. However, the stronger forcing will come on Thursday as the trough moves into Arizona and New Mexico. For now, the majority of guidance have a overall track of the weather system is favorable for rain and thunderstorms for the Panhandles. However, timing and specific track differences will determine which area sees the most rain and how much rain occurs. Overall, the 12z LREF guidance shows a 30-45% chance for over an inch of rain across the Panhandles with the higher-end of those probabilities being in the southern Texas Panhandle. It is important to remember that these probabilities are naturally spatially broad due to the low resolution of the global models and due to how many models go into the LREF. Therefore, it is likely that some part of the Panhandles will ultimately see much less rain than others.

Aside from the rain and thunderstorm potential, refreshingly cool temperatures can be expected from Wednesday through the end of the long-term period.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 MVFR to LIFR ceilings are expected for all terminals tonight and lasting into Sunday morning before the clouds clear out. Winds will turn southwesterly throughout Sunday and become windy; generally 25-30 kts with gusts from 40 kts to approaching 50 kts. Blowing dust may result in reduced visibility, but there is uncertainty regarding how reduced the visibility will be.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A dryline will move east through the Panhandles Sunday, but there is still some uncertainty as to where the dryline will end up by the late afternoon hours.

Strong winds aloft along with subsidence via the right- exit region of the jet streak and a deepening surface low will result in strong southwesterly winds and very dry conditions west of the dryline, in the western and central Panhandles, leading to critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, breezy southerly or southeasterly winds with modestly dry conditions can be expected east of the dryline. If the dryline does set up in the eastern Panhandles, then wind- driven elevated fire weather conditions will be possible east of the dryline. If the dryline moves into western Oklahoma, then critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the combined Panhandles. However, confidence is slightly higher in the first scenario playing out.

Breezy and very dry conditions return on Monday, especially south of the Canadian River. This will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions again.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.