textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the western Panhandles on Wednesday, with conditions returning for the entire Panhandles on Thursday.

- Very low chances exists for a storm or two in the eastern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. If storms can develop, they could become strong to severe.

- Weak cold fronts may provide low rain chances to the northern Panhandles this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Latest observations this afternoon have seen the overnight moisture still holding across the Panhandles with most stations reporting relative humidity values (RH) around 40 to 50 percent. The only exception to this is the far northwestern Panhandles where values have been closer to 25 to 30 percent with some brief elevated fire weather still possible for the day. These RH values are expected to have good overnight recovery once again which will lead to another round of overcast skies for the early morning hours of Wednesday. Moving into Wednesday, does see a new an upper-level trough start to push in around the afternoon time frame. This trough will force a more westerly upper-level flow over the Panhandles and, in turn, create a classic dry-line scenario for the day. To the west of the dry look for critical fire weather to be the main concern with RH values expected to be lower than 10% with southwesterly winds upwards of 15 to 25 mph and gusts nearing 40 mph. What may be our saving grace is the actual position of the dry line for the afternoon. Currently, latest CAMs have been more progressive in keeping the dry-line further west than initially expected with the line not as sharp as initially expected. This would allow for bit more relief to the Panhandles with only the western two stacks of counties under clear cut critical fire weather for the day. Given this, we have chosen to upgrade these areas to a Red Flag Warning for the day.

Meanwhile to the east of the dry-line, model agreement does see much better moisture that could lead to development of showers and thunderstorms that afternoon. What has been killing our confidence in such a thing actually occurring is the expected dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This air mass will most likely result in a strong cap that will cause storms to struggle to develop with chances only around 10 to 20 percent at best. Still if a storm can develop, then ingredients are present for a storm to become strong to severe. As it stands, latest CAMs have consistently shown around 1000 to 1500 J/kg or MLCAPE with some rouge pockets of 2000 mixing in during the late evening hours. These values would be more than enough to support large hail up to half-dollar (1.25 inches), especially with bulk shear peaking around 40kt. However given the expected dry layer, concerns have been more focused on the winds, especially given DCAPE has been upwards of 1500 J/kg for the day. Such values in this environment could support wind gusts upwards 0f 65 mph with potential to reach 70 mph depending on the storm motion. Still this potential is highly conditional, with everything riding on the low chances of a storm actually developing and sustaining itself.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Strong westerly upper-level flow will look to hold for the Panhandles Thursday as models depict a closed upper-level low settle over the Canadian Boarder. This flow will aid in forcing the dry-line from Wednesday well eastwards resulting in a very dry and hot day for the Panhandles. Currently latest guidance has seen the entire Panhandles with relative humidity values below 10 percent with some areas getting as low as 5 percent that afternoon. Temperatures for the day will also look to peak around the upper 80s to low 90s once again. Added to these hot and dry conditions will be breezy to gusty westerly winds that could have gusts reach upwards of 40 mph thanks to the approaching cold front later that night. Of course, such condition will result in another day of widespread critical fire weather with a Fire Weather Watch already in place for entire combine Panhandles that afternoon. More elevated fire weather may follow for the western Panhandles Friday as dry condition look to hold behind the overnight cold front passage. However, more active weather may be in store this weekend as model see another upper-level trough push across sometime Sunday. At this time chances are more focused to our north, but uncertainty is still too high to have too much confidence in it. Otherwise, look for temperature to fluctuate a bit with the cold front but still stay in the 70s to 80s for most locations.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Breezy but overall quiet conditions are expected to hold this afternoon and most of tonight. However, low to mid level moisture is expected to push in once again late tonight, which will result in another low-level cloud deck forming during the overnight and early parts of Wednesday morning. Current confidence only sees impacts to KAMA at this time with expectation to seem them at MVFR CIGs a couple hours after midnight. These CIGs should return to VFR around sunrise with expectation to hold that way through the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A classic dry-line scenario will likely see the western Panhandles under another round of critical fire weather tomorrow afternoon. Currently winds will look to be mostly out of the southwest with speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts nearing 40 mph. However, the bigger concern will be the very dry conditions with our far west looking at values as low as 5 percent. What will aid in keeping these conditions more contained will be the placement of the dry line as well as the lack of a sharp gradient present between it. Current CAMs have been in heavy agreement to the line settling down just slightly east of Guymon, OK which just skew it a little east of the exact center of the Panhandles. This helps as it has give a little relief to our east, especially since current indications sees them having stronger southerly winds that can gust upwards of 40 mph that afternoon. As for the more forced gradient, this will give us a little help to our west as it make it so the heavy drop in RH will not be as instantaneous, and instead we will get a more gradual drop that may take until the late afternoon to see. This unfortunately gets thrown out the window for Thursday as the incoming front and westerly upper-level flow will force the dry-line well east of the Panhandles. This will result in almost all of the Panhandles experiencing RH values below 10 percent with westerly winds gusting upwards of 40 mph across our south. Given this a Fire Watch has been put in place for the entire Panhandles for that afternoon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ001-002- 006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ001-002.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003.