textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms potential this evening into the morning hours of Monday, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles for large hail and damaging winds.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week, varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight hours.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A cold front is passing north to south across the panhandles this morning bringing moisture back across the panhandles. This is causing an elevated unstable environment across the panhandles that is the cause of the ongoing nocturnal thunderstorms. Currently there is 1000 to 2500 J/Kg across much of the panhandles with shear of 20 to 40 kt. This introduces a low chance for these storms to become strong to severe with the main threat being large hail and damaging winds. These storms will continue through to the mid morning when they will most likely start to end as the forcing from the front weakens. This will leave the rest of the morning with mainly cloudy skies as the cold front has brought a deck of clouds across much of the panhandles. This bank of clouds will slowly lift and scatter with partially sunny skies returning during the afternoon. Still the unstable elevated environment will remain across the panhandles through the rest of today. Further thunderstorms needs only a forcing mechanism to get them started. Such a mechanism in the form of a small scale weather system can pass across the northern and eastern panhandles this evening into the early overnight hours. This is leading to a low to medium chance for thunderstorms across mainly the northern panhandles. The environment will have degraded some with CAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/Kg with 20 to 30 kt of shear. This will allow for a low chance for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. This round of storms will likely cease once the weather system departs later Tuesday morning. This will leave the rest of Tuesday morning with another low level cloud deck that will lift and scatter out by the afternoon. This will then allow for heating across the panhandles that will build up the instability. Still there is a lack of forcing mechanism so the chances for any thunderstorms through the afternoon will be low. It wont be until roughly the evening that forcing will arrive in the form of a small weather system. This system will pass mainly across the norther to eastern portions of the panhandles leading to a low to medium chance for thunderstorms. Since the passage of the system will be later in the day this round of thunderstorms will likely persist through the overnight into Wednesday morning. Thanks to the daytime heating the environment these storms will form in will be very unstable and ripe. This is seen with CAPE of 3000-5000 J/Kg with shear of 30 to 50 kt. This will allow for powerful updrafts that can lead to severe thunderstorms even if the chances for such storms are low. The main threats will most likely be large hail and damaging winds, although tornados cannot be ruled out. Further more increasing low level moisture with the setup of the low level jet will allow for the storms to produce torrential rainfall. This means there is at least a low chance for flash flooding which can be made all the worse since it would occur overnight.

Overall both today and Tuesday look to be repeat days of very similar weather. Thunderstorms are most likely late during the day through the overnight. Severe threat will be present for both days so be sure to have a way to receive warning even during the overnight.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The panhandles still has a high chance of staying between weather system through much of the rest of the week. This will see a high pressure weather system to the southwest to south and lower pressure systems to the north.

Wednesday and Thursday the interaction between these system will most likely lead to a northwest flow across the panhandles. This will allow for smaller scale weather system to pass across the region bringing rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday the high pressure has better chances than not to flatten out as another large scale weather system develops in the Pacific Northwest. This will create a more west to east flow across the panhandles and limit the access of moisture. This in turn makes it more likely than not for the rain showers and thunderstorms trend downward for potential occurrence. Still this setup has an increased chance to bring the low level thermal ridge across the panhandle leading to much hotter temperatures come next weekend.

There is already building confidence that next week can see an uptick in the rain shower and thunderstorm chance due to the increasing strength of the weather system over the Pacific Northwest.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A cold front is passing across much of the panhandles bringing rain showers, thunderstorms, and low clouds. The thunderstorms are most likely in the northern panhandles so they are reflected in the KGUY TAF. The chances are less for KDHT and KAMA so the thunderstorms are not currently reflected in those TAFs. There is a low chance for the thunderstorms to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. These thunderstorms will most likely cease by the mid morning hours. However there will be another chance for further thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. As for the low clouds they will mainly cause MVFR conditions through the rest of the overnight and into the morning hours of Monday. This bank of low clouds will then lift and scatter going into the afternoon of Monday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None.

OK...None.