textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

-Thunderstorms are possible each day throughout the work week, where some storms could produce heavy rainfall rates and strong wind gusts.

-Watching closely the flooding potential by mid week with repeat rounds of heavy rain for portions of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Monitoring upstream as of the latest 03Z obs, a cluster of storms developing along the Palmer Divide in upslope flow across north central Colorado is moving southeast through eastern Colorado Plains, aided also by an H500 mid level perturbation moving due east. Latest hi-res model guidance shows outflow from these storms eventually moving southeast towards the OK Panhandle towards sunrise Monday morning. By then, main activity should be elevated behind any propagating outflow boundaries and/or cold pool, but cannot completely rule out a storm producing locally strong wind gusts with DCAPE values in the OK Panhandle around 1000 J/kg by by sunrise Monday morning. Most activity however before 12Z Monday should be limited in coverage, but will monitor trends closely.

Going into Monday afternoon/evening, perturbations in the mid levels along the early stages of an amplified H500 ridge axis may help to develop some showers and storms, favoring the southern Texas Panhandle initially. Later into overnight hours, more established thunderstorms activity from eastern NM may spread east/northeast into the western Panhandles. High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to upper 80s in the SE TX Panhandle.

Latest overall model guidance continues to illustrate a building H500 ridge into the central Plains. In-conjucntion with a deepening H500 trough developing over the Wasatch mountains, this will result in a resultant moisture transport axis extending NNE from the sub- tropical region north through NM and into the western Panhandles. Mid level perturbations downstream of the main trough axis, with ample moisture should provide chances for rain and some storms Tuesday evening, and especially Tuesday night. Vertical profiles by Tuesday are showing limited linear shear in the low to mid levels, along with PWAT values in the 99th percentile, will have to monitor closely the potential for localized flooding. High rainfall rates with thunderstorms that develop and/or training storms will exacerbate flooding potential, especially if the overall ingredients line up for our region. Highest rain chances Tuesday night will be across the western Panhandles, but those chances could spread east. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s in the western Panhandles to mid 80s in the eastern Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Details of the aforementioned rain chances for Tuesday continue through the remainder of the work week. Those increased rain chances should spread east as the ridge axis in the central Plains will compress back into Texas, shifting the main moisture transport axis more northeastward into the Panhandles region. Will have to watch forecast trends closely, as repeat rounds of heavy rainfall could cause some flooding issues. Temperatures should remain below average throughout the work week with perhaps temperatures rising to near average by the coming weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions this morning as a cold front has moved through. Winds will be fairly light today, up to 10kts, out of the east to northeast. Light rain at KGUY that may continue for the next few hours. Otherwise conditions should transition to more MVFR in the 18 to 21z time period, then we should be VFR after 21z for the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated storms possible in the southwest Panhandle today, and should stay far enough away from Amarillo, but will amend TAFs as needed if a storm impacts the terminal.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.