textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Dryline setup with increasing potential for more of the combined Panhandles to see rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. There is a low chance for severe weather with all hazards. However, there are some factors that could greatly limit this threat.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions west of the dryline on Thursday, mainly for the far NW panhandles.

- Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Friday for all of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1236 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Today a weather system is ejecting eastward out of the mid plains having already passed it cold front across the southern plains. The moisture associated with this system is slowly drawing eastward but it is still causing a fairly widespread but eroding cloud bank in the eastern panhandles. This is largely leading to mild weather conditions for the panhandles that will last through the rest of today and much of tonight.

The next weather system is already brewing as it currently strengthening over the intermountain west and digging southward. Starting on Thursday the weather system finally impacts the southern plains in full force. This system will draw up ample low to mid level moisture across much of the central and eastern panhandles Thursday morning through afternoon. The system will also draw in drier air from NM that will butt up against the moisture leading to the formation of a dry line in the far western panhandles. This sets the stage for a fairly classic dry line severe weather day on Thursday. The weather system will provide ample shear across much of the panhandles with 0-6 km shear values of generally 30 to 50 kts with higher values towards the eastern panhandles. MU CAPE values east of the dry line generally range from 1k to 2k J/kg providing ample instability. Helicity initially starts off relatively weaker in the 100 to 200 m2s2 range before greatly increasing in the late afternoon and evening upwards of 300 to 500 m2s2 range. Such ingridients are favorable for the development of thunderstorms that can rapidly turn severe. The initial mode for these storms favors the development of more discrete supercells that then become more linear as the event unfolds. Such storms will be capable of producing all hazards of large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes. There is even a very low chance that a tornado can become strong in this environment. The moisture will most likely exceed over and inch on the PWAT which will allow for heavy rainfall to occur with any of the rain showers and thunderstorms. However the motion of the storms will likely be fairly high which will limit the risk for flooding but not completely rule it out. The chances for any thunderstorms and for severe weather is higher in the eastern panhandles where the dynamics and moisture are greater leading to a more vigorous environment that the thunderstorm can thrive off of. The most likely start time for these storms will be during the later afternoon hours as the dry line tightens and shifts eastwards while the heating increases. Once the storms form they would then travel eastward across the panhandles through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Once storms start further storms can flare up ahead of the initial convection which can lead to a diffuse area of storms compared to a single line purely started from the dry line. However, there is one very large wrench that can derail the entire severe weather event and that is its own moisture. The moisture has a high chance of causing a thick and extensive cloud bank when it arrives in the panhandles. This would curtail surface heating and set up a cap. If this bank of cloud refuses to erode through a long enough portion of the day then conditions will not become unstable enough for thunderstorms to form leading to a bust. So now the question becomes what will win out, the dryline and heating to flare thunderstorms, or the cloud bank and the cap to prevent the thunderstorms. Right now it seems more likely that the thunderstorms will occur so the forecast will continue to reflect a moderate to high chance for thunderstorms with better chances in the eastern panhandles and lower chances for the western.

West of the dry line there is fire concerns on Thursday, see the fire section for more.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1236 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Early Friday morning the weather system continues to move to the east pushing out any remaining rain showers and thunderstorms while moving in far drier air. The pressure gradient associated with this weather system will lead to windy conditions across the panhandles which will see gusty southwest winds through the whole of the late morning through evening. The dry and windy conditions is causing fire weather concerns, see the fire section for more details. The cold front associated with the weather system then arrives during the evening hours bringing a shift in the winds to the north. These north winds will drive in colder air that will see the return of freezing overnight lows and colder weather that will last through Saturday. The large scale weather pattern becomes a briefly more steady as the weather system breaks apart with a portion of it forming a closed low off the west coast of Baja California. This will most likely keep more stable conditions across much of the panhandles through the weekend. Although a limited amount of moisture has a low chance of pushing into the southern TX panhandle. If this moisture does arrive then there will be a daily very low chance for light rain showers in the southern TX panhandle during the weekend. Warmer air seems likely to start pushing north back into the panhandles for Sunday.

The next big shift in the weather seems likely to occur for the next work when the closed low begins to move eastward. This would most likely draw in moisture to the panhandles leading to the return of wetter weather. Just how much moisture the panhandles receives remains in question as this will be heavily impacted by both the trajectory and intensity of this weather system. Right now it seems more likely that this system will take a more southerly route that would limit some of the moisture feed into the panhandles. So stay tuned for further updates to see how this system will impact the panhandles.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals through the rest of today and much of Thursday morning at all terminals. Thursday morning a low level deck of clouds has a high chance of spreading across the central and eastern panhandles with IFR ceilings. KAMA is the most likely to be impacted by this deck of clouds with it reflected in the TAF. KDHT and KGUY are less likely to see the cloud deck impact the stations thus they were excluded for now. This can change easily as they are not far from the expected edge of the cloud deck. The deck will persist through the rest of the morning with it most likely improving to MVFR conditions during the mid morning hours after sunrise. After the current TAF frame towards the afternoon and evening of Thursday there rain showers and thunderstorms can develop. There is a low chance for these to occur at KGUY and KDHT and a moderate chance for them to occur at KAMA. The Thunderstorms have a low chance of becoming severe and capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A dryline has a high chance of setting up across the western portions of the panhandles for Thursday. West of the dryline conditions will be very dry with min RH down to the single digits along with sustained winds of 20s to 30s mph. This is leading to a limited area of the panhandles which can see elevated to critical fire weather conditions for Thursday afternoon, mainly the western portions of Cimarron, Dallam, Hartley, Oldham, and Deaf Smith Counties. Since Cimarron and Dallam Counties have a large portion in the dry sector they will be included in a Red Flag Warning for Thursday. The timing of the Red Flag will be for the afternoon when conditions are critical ending towards the evening once the winds weaken. The other previous mentioned counties with smaller areas in the dry sector will be excluded.

Friday the whole of the panhandles finds itself under the dry sector of the weather system. This will have a high chance of plunging the min RH down into the teens to single digits across the panhandles. This will be combined with windy conditions with sustained winds most likely in the 20s to 30s mph. This will cause widespread elevated to critical fire conditions across the panhandles. The timing of the critical fire weather conditions will be from the late morning hours through to the evening hours. A cold front has a moderate to high chance of passing across the panhandles Friday evening bringing a shift in the wind direction to the north. However moisture associated with the front along with cooler air will increase the RH and bring a close to the critical fire conditions following its passage. Due to the forecasted widespread critical fire weather conditions a Fire Weather Watch is out for the whole of the panhandles for Friday for the late morning through the afternoon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Thursday for TXZ001.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Thursday for OKZ001.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for OKZ001>003.