textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Today. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

- Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding today and tonight across the Panhandles.

- Thunderstorms will remain possible on a daily basis through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Radar and surface observations as of 04z show an outflow boundary advancing eastward over the central Panhandles overnight, as an H500 disturbance sits to our west over New Mexico. This sfc boundary is the focal point for new convective development through the morning hours. Most CAMs show scattered showers and storms popping up over the western and central Panhandles through sunrise, potentially maintaining widespread coverage across the west-southwest TX Panhandle. These showers and storms will be extremely efficient rainfall producers thanks to PWATs of 1.0-1.5" across the CWA. Rain rates could be as high as 1-2"/hr leading to localized flash flooding potential, especially for any areas that have already received heavy rain last night.

Activity is expected to briefly wane early in the morning due to overworking of the environment, but another surge of moisture from southerly return flow may quickly reinvigorate activity in tandem with a potential remnant MCV type feature from morning convection. Hi-res guidance such as the HRRR shows a broad MCS developing by the early afternoon hours, progressing from southwest to northeast through the day. Despite weak shear, the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE could be enough to support a few strong to severe embedded storms with damaging wind and large hail. Increasing PWAT values across the eastern Panhandles on Wednesday (10-40% chance >1.5") raise some concerns for additional flooding potential, especially with any stronger organized convection. Rain rates may once again reach or exceed 1-2"/hr, with 10-30% probabilities for localized rainfall totals >2" across the eastern half of the Panhandles (generally along and east of an Amarillo to Guymon line).

Latest trends point to much of Thursday being a recovery day for the region after storms exit to our east Wed night, with the upper level trough over New Mexico finally ejecting eastward over the Plains. A subtle, weak disturbance may reach the Panhandles by Thu evening with potential to generate another round of spotty showers and storms, but confidence in this occurring is relatively low depending on how well the atmosphere can recover (20-40% POPs).

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Long range models are in fairly good agreement that the synoptic pattern will continue to favor active weather for the Panhandles through the end of the week. Global guidance depicts troughing translating over the Plains Fri-Sat, maintaining appreciable moisture transport to the region in tandem with large-scale lift. As any disturbances arrive to the Panhandles, PWATs likely remain in the 90th percentile (>1"), with ample low level moisture (50s and 60s dew points) and highs in the 80s. These conditions should support 20-50% POPs primarily across the south and eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Fri & Sat. As we've seen a lot lately, activity will likely be scattered in nature rather than widespread, so some locations could see heavy rain while others see nothing.

Going into next week, models depict an "Omega Block" pattern setting up atop the plains, with upper level ridging settling in from the south Plains to the Midwest. Although rogue opportunities for precipitation could materialize any given day, this trend mostly favors warmer and quieter conditions. Highs in the 90s will be more common each day Sunday through Wednesday, with precipitation chances around 20% or less daily. Model agreement degrades through the week, so any shifts in ridging may influence our precipitation chances moving forward.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Showers and storms are creating hyperactive TAFs at all sites over the next 24 hrs, and will likely require amendments due to outflow boundaries causing erratic changes in wind speed/direction, and also by causing new storm development. PROB30 groups have been included to account for this, but effectively timing these rounds of activity will be difficult. Showers and storms can produce reduced visibility and lower ceilings as they occur, along with occasionally gusty winds.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.