textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Hot temperatures, ranging from 100 to 109 degrees, is expected today across the combined Panhandles.

- Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night, Saturday, Sunday, and potentially into early next week as well. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The polar jet stream is stretching from the Pacific Northwest, southeastward into the Midwest and Ohio Valley with a longwave trough over the Hudson Bay region. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is stretched from the southern High Plains toward the West Coast. Very warm temperatures in the lowest 1km AGL will advect into the Panhandles from tonight through Wednesday, and we will have near- record to possibly record 850mb temperatures with the 18/00z sounding. This will make temperatures reach into the 100s across most, if not all of the Panhandles. There was a tough decision to be made about what to do with the Extreme Heat Watch for Palo Duro Canyon. Breezy southwesterly winds in the morning should keep the floor from warming too quickly in the morning, but winds weaken to less than 10 mph in the afternoon and turn northerly/northeasterly which should allow temperatures to spike quickly. It is likely to be close to reaching 110 degrees, but confidence is too low at this time to convert the watch into a warning. Will therefore convert it into a Heat Advisory, but we will have to keep an eye on the trends in the morning for a late upgrade.

A cold front will move in late Wednesday night and winds will gradually strengthen. Winds will peak at 20-30 mph sustained with gusts up to 45 mph. The NBM's highs for Thursday seem to be grossly overdone given that cooler air will be moving in to the Panhandles throughout the day and there'll be 30-70% cloud coverage. Have lowered high temperatures rather significantly, with a 5 to 15 degree decrease noted, especially for the central and northern Panhandles. Forecast soundings show significant elevated instability throughout the day as a layer of warm and moist air remains above the cool airmass, but this instability should be capped throughout Thursday. Cannot entirely rule out some thunderstorms in the far southeastern Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon where the cap may become weak enough, but confidence is quite low in that potential.

As we go into Thursday evening and Friday morning, forecast soundings indicate that the elevated capping inversion will weaken enough such that parcels will be able to lift freely. Forcing will be weak, but there are some indications that just enough forcing could move into the Texas Panhandle to spark off some elevated thunderstorms overnight. Forecast soundings show moderate to strong elevated instability Friday morning (00z-12z) on the order of 2000- 3500 J/kg, with some more aggressive models showing 3500-5000 J/kg (12km NAM). Fortunately, winds aloft are quite weak but the significant directional shear could lead to 20-30 kts effective shear which will be enough for some storm organization. These storms, should they develop, will certainly have the potential to become strong to severe (and quickly). The relatively weaker wind shear will lower the magnitude of the max hail size, but still would not be surprised to see 1.5" to 2" hail with those instability values. A potential failure mode for the overnight storms is if the afternoon round of thunderstorms in far southwestern Oklahoma/northwestern Texas comes to fruition (like the 3km NAM). In this case, this could create issues with the capping inversion being too strong. Another potential failure mode is if the cold front pushes further south than currently anticipated. This could focus convection into west Texas rather than the Texas Panhandle.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A broad and weak shortwave trough is expected to be present over Texas and other parts of the Southern US on Friday. Temperatures will try to rebound, but morning clouds may complicate that. Clouds should eventually break down as warm and moist air advects back into the Panhandles. A shortwave is favored to move in and amid northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the broader shortwave. The NBM has 20-40% PoPs Friday night, but mid-level moisture is lacking which increases uncertainty about whether or not rain and thunderstorms will be able to develop and become sustained as they move off the high terrain.

Semi-zonal flow will set up over the southern half of the CONUS this weekend. Temperatures will heat up into the 90s to around 100 degrees on Saturday as the influence of a ridge over the Baja California peninsula will exert some influence over the region. Pacific moisture will move into the Panhandles as an embedded shortwave works into the northern Panhandles. This will introduce rain and thunderstorm chances for Saturday afternoon and evening in the north.

Dry air will move into the CWA on Sunday as temperatures warm well into the 90s and low-100s. The NBM has PoPs once again Sunday afternoon and evening, but the advection of dry air aloft should prevent that.

Operational and ensemble model guidance suggests that an upper-level ridge will set up to the west of the Panhandles with a trough over the Great Lakes region. If the ridge sets up over the Four Corner states, then this would leave the Panhandles under northwesterly flow aloft which could promote an active nocturnal thunderstorm pattern for next week.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period at all TAF sites. Between 12Z through to the end of the TAF period, MVFR cigs should enter the TAF sites from north to south. Winds will be out of the north and northeast at 5-15 kts, increasing to 15-25 kts with higher gusts at times from around 12Z to the end of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ007>020-317.

OK...None.