textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

* Critical fire weather is ongoing across the combined Panhandles due to breezy and very dry conditions.

* High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday across the Panhandles due to breezy to windy conditions and very low relative humidity values.

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily from Tuesday through at least Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough over California and Nevada with broad southwesterly flow extending downstream into the plains and midwest with hints of subtle perturbations in the flow. A surface low will develop today and more significantly strengthen this afternoon, resulting in strengthening winds across the panhandles. Expecting the strongest winds to be in the southern panhandles, 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, with weaker winds in the north, 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. These winds, plus widespread 95+ degree temperatures and very low relative humidity, will result in critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles. If convective temperatures are reached, or if there is a well-timed perturbation resulting in mid-level forcing, then a dry thunderstorm will be possible across the central and eastern panhandles. However, there are signs that there will be negative 700mb theta-e advection which suggests dry air entrainment, which may make it difficult for updrafts to sustain. Thus, confidence is very low in the potential for dry thunderstorm development but it cannot be ruled out. Additional development will be possible along a dryline in the far eastern panhandles later this afternoon, but confidence is very low. If a thunderstorm can develop, moderate instability will be in place for a damaging wind and hail threat.

The surface low will move off to the northeast and the dryline will retreat some. Winds will remain breezy overnight with very poor relative humidity (RH) recovery expected in the western Panhandles, with some locations not even reaching 20%.

Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig into the inter-mountain west as flow over the Rockies becomes more meridional. An embedded shortwave will round the base of the trough throughout Sunday which will result in a sub-990mb surface low in southeastern Colorado and a generally stronger wind field at the surface and aloft. Expecting sustained winds to be between 20-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. The dryline will push east again on Sunday as RH values plummet into the single digits by the mid- afternoon hours west of the dryline. There is a chance that the far eastern panhandles will stay east of the dryline throughout the afternoon. In that case, there is around a 20% chance for a few thunderstorms to develop on the dryline. If that happens, they could become strong to severe before moving into Oklahoma. Otherwise, high-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected west of the dryline. Winds will stay breezy through Sunday night as the dryline retreats. Good to great RH recovery is expected east of the dryline while very poor recovery is expected in the western panhandles behind the dryline.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A cold front may attempt to work into the northern panhandles Monday morning, though there are significant disagreements about how far south it will move before stalling. Nonetheless, there is agreement that the front will weaken throughout the morning and dissipate by the afternoon. The parent upper-level trough will work eastward through the afternoon and take a negative tilt as it moves into the plains. A strong surface low will develop in southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas on Monday with windy conditions across the region. Expecting 25-35 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 50 mph. Relative humidity values in the afternoon are expected to be as low as 4% across the panhandles with the lowest values in the central and southern Texas Panhandle. High- end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are possible in the northern panhandles where there's an overlap of the windiest conditions with 5-8% RH. Later in the day a cold front will move in from the north. There is uncertainty regarding how quickly the front will move in, with a few ensemble members pushing it into the Oklahoma Panhandle by the late afternoon/early evening hours. However, the majority of guidance suggests it'll move into the area in the evening to overnight hours. Expecting breezy to windy conditions behind the front with the potential for 10-12mb surface pressure rises over 3 hours along with a moderately strong LLJ of 35-45 kts. When there's a relatively potent cold front like this, which typically happens more often in the late winter/early spring, they tend to move in quicker than most guidance suggests; will not be surprised if the front is through most of the CWA by midnight.

Seasonable temperatures will work in on Tuesday, then we will see cooler than normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday and potentially Friday as we struggle to recover from the cold front intrusion. Mid-level moisture will stick around through the week as low-level moisture gradually improves. Embedded shortwaves within the southwesterly flow aloft could provide chances for showers and thunderstorms daily from Tuesday through at least Thursday. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms appears very low for Tuesday and Wednesday given the stable airmass, but we could see a low-end severe threat develop on Thursday and beyond.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites throughout the next 24 hours with south to southwest winds continuing. A strengthening low level jet will result in LLWS overnight at KDHT and KGUY, which will diminish after sunrise Sunday. Southwest winds will strengthen once again by late morning and become strong on Sunday afternoon with gusts likely to reach into the 35-40 kt range.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across the combined panhandles due to breezy and very dry conditions. Winds will stay breezy overnight with very poor relative humidity recovery west of the dryline, in the western panhandles, with some locations likely to not even reach 20%. The dryline will push east Sunday morning, and winds will strengthen to 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph as relative humidity values drop as low as 4%. These conditions will lead to high-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions on Sunday.

Winds will again stay breezy Sunday night into Monday morning as the dryline retreats into the area. Very poor relative humidity recovery is expected west of the dryline Monday morning. The dryline will once again push east on Monday with 25 to 35 mph sustained winds, locally higher possible, with wind gusts up to 50 mph. Relative humidity values will drop to as low as 4%. A cold front will move in later on Monday with potentially strong northerly winds behind the front, exacerbating concerns for fire spread. The majority of model guidance suggests the front will move in Monday evening, but a few ensemble members bring it in as early as the late afternoon hours and clears the panhandles by midnight. Given past tendencies with similar fronts (much cooler post-frontal airmass, windy post-frontal conditions), will not be surprised if the front does come in quicker than the majority of current guidance.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.