textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

-Critical Fire Weather conditions today and again on Friday. Limit any outdoor activities that can spark a fire as they will be very hard to control.

-Strong cold front Friday evening is expected to be joined with sustained winds over 30 mph and gusts over 50 mph, as well as temperatures that may fall below freezing Saturday morning.

-Both elevated and critical Fire Weather conditions will continue to be a concern Sunday through Wednesday as we continue to remain dry and at times breezy.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest moving down over the Four Corners this evening, continues that positive tilt. As a result dry southwest flow continues over the area today and again on Friday. Critical Fire Weather will result from this pattern. West winds today win the 20-30 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. Winds will start to lighten up a bit overnight, but still will be breezy in the 10 to 15 mph range. This will support overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. The northwest Panhandle may be an exception with lighter winds and could go to mid 40s tonight. Overnight, we'll monitor the southeast Panhandle for a very low <10% chance at a thunderstorm. We do have some moisture advection and quite a bit of CAPE to work with, but we are very well capped. Unless the forcing from the shortwave will help overcome the strong cap, doubt we will see anything tonight. Now should a storm manage to form, there's an argument it has the potential to be strong, but again, confidence is very low. As we reach the morning hours there's a little bit of that cap eroding in the far eastern Panhandles, and that's enough to get a 20 pop along the TX/OK border, so if anything develops it will be out of the area quick.

On Friday, just like today, winds will pick up again out of the west to southwest and will be breezy for the majority of the day, supporting more critical Fire Weather. The difference is that the upper trough will eventually move over the Panhandles and a cold front will join us with a strong wind shift out of the north. The challenge we face is where will the front stall for 3 to 6 hours as a stationary front, then surge south. There's no question we expect the front to be through the Panhandles by 11PM and with 3hr pressure changes behind the front there's a good chance we'll need at least a Wind Advisory, but the potential for high sustained winds or gusts over 60 mph can't be discounted out. The most favored area would be the southeast Panhandle, but not going to rule out all areas to see a possible gust of 60mph. The most probable setup for the front will be for it to stall out around 11am-1pm over the OK Panhandle and that may put a damper on the critical Fire Weather for the OK Panhandle, but still areas to the south will be under warm, dry, westerly flow for most of the afternoon, then around the 5-7pm time frame that stationary front will surge south with the cooler air and strong winds behind. While the winds are expected to be strong behind the front it should only last 2 to 4 hours they will gradually pull back, but may still be breezy through the morning hours.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Saturday will be a colder day, as early morning lows are expected to be below freezing in the northwest Panhandles and in the 30s for most of the rest of the Panhandles. Given that the winds should lighten up on Saturday afternoon, we should still manage to warm into the 60s. Saturday night we'll have to keep an eye on as well given the light winds and the cold airmass still overhead, so we could have another round of freeze and frost concerns. Sunday through Wednesday we'll go back to a warming trend and continue to keep an eye on Fire Weather each day as we move toward more of a high pressure situation. There is a hint on Monday and Tuesday that we might have a shortwave move over the Panhandles and set off some afternoon storms. Overall, this is projected to be south our area, but we'll keep an eye on it and update the forecast as needed.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds in out of the west to southwest 15-20kts gusting to 30 kts at times. Winds will come down overnight, but LLWS will pick up in the 6z to 12z time period. Thereafter winds will pick back up in the 20-25kt range gusting up to 35kts. KGUY will need to be watched in the 15-18z time frame a cold front may move down and remain stationary near the TAF site around that time period, which could result in varying wind directions and possibly much lower wind speeds.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Critical Fire Weather today continues with west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. RH values could be as low as 5 percent today. RFTI's in the 4 to 6 range can be expected. Red Flag Warnings area in effect for the entire Panhandle. Tomorrow will be a similar day, but we'll be dealing with a cold front wind shift as early as mid afternoon, but will likely stall to the north and push south in the evening. Any active wildfires would be vulnerable to rapid growth from north to south initially as the front moves through. Eventually RH values will recover as we get colder overnight, but the initial surge is the concern. As we deal with cooler conditions on Saturday and Saturday night we'll have a bit of a break from the Fire Concerns. But that will be short lived as Sunday through Wednesday we have a warming trend, and will likely stay dry, which will return the elevated to critical Fire Weather.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ001>020-317.

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ001>003.

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003.