textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Low end critical fire weather is expected across the southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.

- Rain chances remain for Thursday into Friday, but trends have been towards lower rain amounts and lesser chances for rain across the Panhandles.

- Temperatures late this week are expected to be much cooler with highs in the 50s and potentially even the 40s.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The most recent satellite imagery early this afternoon continues to depict a low cloud deck over the northeast half of the Panhandles. This low cloud deck continues to dissipate but the cloud cover has already had an impact on the forecast for today. Temperatures across the northeastern half of the area will likely only rise up into the 60s to maybe low 70s since the temperatures in those areas are still in the 40s. Further southwest, the wind is switching to out of the west to southwest, leading to drier air moving in. The breezy wind and dry surface conditions will lead to low end critical fire weather this afternoon. Most of the area will be on the other side of a stalled surface boundary this afternoon, which will keep temperatures a bit cooler, surface moisture will remain higher, and the wind will be lighter and out of the east to northeast. That front will eventually push south of the area this evening and overnight lows will be quite cool in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some patchy frost may occur across the north due to high moisture and light wind, but confidence is not high enough due to potential cloud cover.

The cooler air mass will remain in place on Wednesday behind the weak cold front. H850 temperatures are forecast to rise up to the mid to upper teens Celsius during the afternoon with surface highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area during the afternoon and sustained wind is forecast to be around 10-20 mph. The southeast wind will aid in keeping surface moisture in place so critical fire weather is not anticipated on Wednesday. Upper level moisture will increase going into Wednesday night and cloud cover should increase going into Thursday morning.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

An upper level low pressure system will move onshore across Baja California on Thursday and will quickly move towards west Texas on Friday. The trough will aid in keeping temperatures cool Thursday through Saturday as a cooler air mass from the north moves in during this time frame. In addition to the cooler air mass, widespread cloud cover and the potential for rain will keep temperatures below average. In fact, the central and western Panhandles may only reach the lower to mid 50s for highs on both Thursday and Friday. In fact, the latest NBM features a 50-70 percent chance for highs on Friday to remain at or below 50 on Friday across the central and western Panhandles.

Now for the main question everyone is wanting to know, what about the rain? Well, the trends continue to not be in our favor for widespread beneficial rainfall. The H500 low pressure system is continuing to trend further south with the track of the system and the better moisture also remains well south of the area. For Thursday, most of the area will likely remain on the dry side with some isolated to scattered showers at times during the day. The better chances for rain will be Friday morning into the early afternoon, with trends favoring the west and south for the highest chances. Even with that being said, the overall trend has been for the highest rain to be south of the Panhandles, which includes the better chances for a half inch or more. A tight gradient from beneficial moisture (half inch or more) to lighter amounts (quarter inch or less) will likely occur and unfortunately will almost certainly be over the Panhandles. Blended model guidance is very likely too high on precipitation chances and rain amounts, so have started the trend of lowering both of these with this forecast.

Ridging looks to replace the weather system that brought the rain chances to the southern CONUS this weekend into early next week. This pattern will lead to temperatures rising throughout the weekend and widespread highs in the 70s and 80s are expected Sunday and Monday. Shortwaves embedded in the potential northwest flow early next week may lead to chances for showers or storms early next week.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR ceilings will continue for a short time at KGUY before VFR conditions return to all sites. Wind direction at KAMA/KDHT will be highly variable on where a stalled front remains today, but all sites will have northeast to east wind for the later half of this TAF issuance. If KDHT/KAMA have wind out of the west, gusts up to 25-30 kts may occur. Otherwise, the wind will be around 10-15 kts or less with high clouds moving in at the end of this TAF cycle.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are highly uncertain for the rest of today due to higher surface moisture and the placement of a frontal boundary. Model guidance continues to trend with the frontal boundary further southwest and is now stalling it near or in the current Red Flag Warning area. Light north to northeast wind and higher humidity are expected on the north side of the boundary so as soon as the boundary moves over a location, the fire threat is over. Will be keeping a close eye on where the boundary sets up and cannot rule out the Red Flag Warning may need to be cancelled for some counties early. The far southwest TX Panhandle is still expected to see critical fire weather, but the sustained wind and gust potential is lower than previously forecast.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ006-011-012- 016>018-317.

OK...None.