textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Low/Medium chance 20-40% of showers and storms this evening and tomorrow evening across the northern Panhandles. Low chance 5-14% for severe storms with damaging winds being the primary concern.

- Hot temperatures to return this weekend with highs likely in the 100 to 108 range.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Northwest flow will continue today and tomorrow which will support afternoon storms off the high terrain that could track across the Panhandles. Additionally we do have a residual frontal boundary across the northern Panhandle which could result in isolated to scattered storms that develop over the Panhandle this evening. Model soundings indicate that there still may be too much of a cap for those storms to occur. If storms do occur we'll have decent effective shear across the northern Panhandles with ML CAPE values around 750-1500 J/kg. While DCAPE values are in the 1500-1800 J/kg range later this evening, the storm motion may be enough to get the gusts over 75mph, so while the most likely wind gusts will be 50+ mph, can't rule out a gust that reaches 75 mph. Tonight as storms start to collapse there is a hint of an onion sounding potential and therefore will not rule out heat bursts on collapsing thunderstorms, and those could certainly see gusts up to 75 mph as well.

Thursday as the frontal boundary nearly exits the Panhandle we'll have another subtle wave track over the area in the northeast Panhandle in the late afternoon. This appears to be the focus of where the best chances of showers and storms will develop. That being said upper level flow will start to shift more north to northwest over the Panhandles in the evening during the storms and that will help steer any storms that develop to track south to southwest. If a cluster of storms does manage to form along that frontal boundary and merge into an MCS then we could see that cluster tracking from northeast to southwest tomorrow evening. Overall, strong damaging wind will continue to be the primary threat but will not rule out some hail up to pennies. Additionally, should the storms converge into an MCS cluster the PWATS tomorrow do range from 1.30-1.50" and that would support heavy rain, and possible localized flooding. Storms should diminish in the late evening with the loss of heating and may linger into the early overnight hours, leaving outflow boundaries that have the potential to aid in further storm development on Friday.

Other mentionable notes will be the continued heat. Palo Duro Canyon on a daily basis will continue to be close to or exceed heat advisory criteria until the end of the forecast period, but Borger could get close to, maybe even tie the record high of 105. The forecast for Borger is 104 on Thursday.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Friday a more northerly flow will be over the Panhandles, which is generally less favorable for storm development, however residual outflow boundaries and perhaps a subtle wave may move through in the afternoon to trigger storm development. If a storm develops it will likely track due south. Outflow boundaries will most likely reside in the north given where the best chances of storms are on Thursday, but if we do get the MCS noted in the short term that could lead to outflow boundaries that could hold more over the Canadian River Valley and I-40 corridor. But overall storm motion will be about 5-15 mph to the south on Friday. Saturday through Tuesday the high pressure will continue to linger just east of the Four Corners and keep us under more of that north to northeasterly flow. Pops for the extended for the most part will be less than 15 percent. There is a hint that the ridge may start to break down early in the work week, but confidence is still very low < 15% at this point.

Weber

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the TAF period. The only exception could be for KDHT through 06Z where ts conditions are possible, but not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Will add AMD updating current obs closely. Overall, winds will be out of the south, but could shift to northerly if the front moves south of TAF site. Winds past 12Z should return to southerly for all TAF sites. Winds will be 5-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.