textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- An approaching system is expected to bring light snow to most of the Panhandles tonight into Thursday afternoon.

- Localized bands of moderate to heavy snowfall are expected to occur, which could lead to small areas receiving an extra 2 to 4 inches of accumulation. This could lead to impacts for the morning commute.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Meteorological winter has only just arrived to the Panhandles, and already we are seeing persistently increasing odds for snow to fall across much of the Panhandles this evening into Thursday morning. Colder temperatures are settling back in over the region today behind a cold front, helping keep highs mostly in the 40s. As we head into the evening and overnight hours, models show an upper level system progressing towards the Plains, becoming more favorably oriented upon its arrival. These trends have cumulatively increased confidence that snow will fall tonight into tomorrow morning, starting with the northwest Panhandles this evening, spreading/shifting south and east through the morning hours Thursday. Precipitation should exit the area and dissipate through tomorrow afternoon, leaving cooler temperatures and drier air in its wake.

Satellite and mesoanalysis observations show a positively tilted 500mb trough approaching the Four Corners region this morning, with a pronounced core of moisture in tow. CAMs as well as regional and global models have begun showing a larger swath of light snow developing over the Panhandles tonight, likely due to better large scale lift associated with the upper level system's track/evolution. Forecast soundings show quite favorable temperature profiles for snow, especially overnight-early morning, with sub-freezing temperatures throughout the column and decent saturation in the Dendritic Growth Zone. To reiterate, this type of system generally favors the aforementioned lighter snowfall as compared to widespread heavy snow. However, a few narrow corridors of moderate to heavy snow appear likely, due in part to areas of enhanced 700mb frontogenesis ahead of the trough. Wherever these bands set up, snow rates will be enhanced, leading to potential for some totals in the 2-4" range. CAMs have shifted the locations of these bands from run to run, but have insisted that they will exist. Ensemble probabilities highlight the northwest combined Panhandles as being most favored to receive such a feature (30-60% chance for >2"), but the southwest to central TX Panhandle also have opportunities for heavier banding as well (20-40% chance for >2"). The gradient of snow totals may be quite sharp within these bands, potentially going from less than an inch to several inches over a relatively short distance. The worst case scenario bulls eyes as of latest data, could be as high as the 4-6" range on a very localized/outlier basis (<10% chance).

Regardless, the chances to see any snowfall to even a dusting of accumulation are medium to high for a majority of the forecast area (40-80% POPs). Ground temperatures are already cold enough, and especially with most snow falling after dark, the expectation is that any snow that falls should accumulate rather than melt. For this reason, we could easily see impacts to the morning commute, so please allow yourself extra time in the morning and take it easy on the roadways.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Long range models show a large closed low settling over the Canadian Hudson Bay this weekend into next week, maintaining northwest flow aloft atop the High Plains. Dry air will dominate this time frame, leading to no mentionable opportunities for precipitation for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures will be on a warming trend as well, increasing back to the 50s and 60s by mid next week, with lows around or below freezing every night.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low clouds and snow are expected to arrive at all sites this evening into Thursday morning, creating MVFR to LIFR conditions. Light snow is most likely to fall intermittently between 00-12z, with chances for narrow bands to create heavier snow and reduced visibility at times. The exact location and timing of this potential is still up in the air and will continue to be adjusted in future forecasts. Snow is expected to gradually taper off by the end of the 18z period. Winds will be out of the east - northeast before becoming more light and variable in the morning hours.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016-017-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for OKZ001.