textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Chances for impactful weather remain low for the rest of the week. High temperatures should slowly rise towards the end of the week, and overall precipitation chances remain low. Next week, highs may return to the 100s across much of the CWA.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The upper level ridge becomes elongated across much of the CONUS during the short term period. South to southeasterly surface wind flow will continue across the region for the next couple of days, allowing for quality moisture retention in the Panhandles. Slow height rises and high moisture content should prevail in keeping high temperatures near or below average today and Friday. Due to persistent weak forcing, shower and thunderstorm coverage during this period will remain isolated. However, thunderstorm outflow from convection south of our CWA could lead to increased development across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. A similar convective regime may unfold on Friday as well. While CAMs remain uncertain on the exact placement of thunderstorms, these models more consistently favor our southern zones for measurable QPF. Therefore, PoPs will remain largely focused in the southern Texas Panhandle despite overall chances staying low to medium. (15- 35%).

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Global models have shown increased consistency these past few runs in allowing the upper ridge to drift southward and center more over the High Plains next week. While the strength of the ridge is somewhat uncertain, some models suggest heights could rise up to 600 decameters at the 500 mb level. With forecast relative humidity also shown to deplete in the extended, a hot and relatively dry weather pattern may manifest for the remainder of July. High temperatures next week should return to the upper 90s, and even triple digit heat could become more widespread outside of just the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon. Despite the drier trend, PoPs actually don't decrease all too much for the next 7 days. Convection may be more focused in our northwest zones due to thunderstorm propagation off the high terrain. Additionally, if the high pressure center shifts further west over the Rockies, we could enter into a northwest flow regime and precipitation will have more favorable transportation into our CWA. However, if the high shifts further east over the plains, rain chances should decrease considerably.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z TAF period. Winds will remain out of the SE, increasing to 10-15 kts through this afternoon. Low clouds are possible at KAMA this morning from 13-17Z, however, confidence is low as the most likely scenario is for them to remain southeast of the terminal. If they are to reach the terminal, MVFR conditions could occur.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.