textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, which could lead to severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding.

- High pressure is expected to build back in to start next week resulting in another round of widespread triple-digit temperatures.

- A new system moving into our east mid-week may result in similar shower and thunderstorms opportunity as last week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Present CAMs continue to see the Panhandles stay active today as we look to deal with two different lifting mechanism driving storm production in our south and northwest. The first of these mechanism looks to be a weak frontal boundary that could be our key to see storms across the Southern and Central portions of the Texas Panhandles. The issue with this mechanism, however, is going to be on the final placement of the boundary, which will effect how far south storm will actually start. Overnight CAMs have suggest that this boundary will likely settle a county or so south our CWA, which does bring better chances of activity reaching the I-40 corridor. While this has been a more recent trend, it does line up better with what radar imagery saw last night. Given this, we have decided to spread our chances of precipitation further south then previously forecasted. As for the second lifting mechanism, much like yesterday, look for a new short-wave to aid in forcing activity off the Southern Front Range and into the Northwestern Panhandles. As for impacts, expected instability is roughly as good as it was yesterday with areas working with around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, a distinct lack of wind shear for tomorrow is expected to keep most of these storms more vertical making it hard to stay organized long enough to produce much in terms of hail. Instead concern will be more focused on the potential for damaging winds and localized flooding. As it stands, current CAMs are seeing around 1200 to 1500 J/kg of DCAPE that could result in some down burst winds pushing 60 to 70 mph. Meanwhile, PWAT values for tomorrow continue to trend higher than yesterdays activity with some areas peaking over the 1.5 inch mark. This could lead to much better rainfall rates and localized flash flooding, especially in urban environments and areas that have already seen decent rainfall from yesterday. Otherwise look for slightly cooler temperatures for the afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Moving into Monday, models do see the upper-level high pressure system start to retrograde back west towards the Panhandles. This movement will be start of the Panhandles warming back up and drying back out. Still chances of isolated thunderstorms do look remain present for the north that afternoon and evening albeit at only around a 10 to 20 percent.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Model agreement continues to trend towards the current upper-level high retrograding back west during the course of next week. This retrograde will eventually see said high back over the Panhandles resulting in a return of the more widespread triple-digit temperatures for Tuesday alongside the potential need for another round of heat related products. Unfortunately this return of high pressure will see our chances of storms drop off for the day as well. However, present GFS and ECMWF runs have finally gotten into better agreement on the supposed trough digging south sometime Wednesday into Thursday. Currently these runs have see the main axis of the trough further east then what the GFS was initially trying to do, which will keep keep us out of the main activity push from the trough unfortunately. However, this position does open the Panhandles to some very good northwesterly upper-level flow, which will be beneficial in seeing storms push off the mountains to our west and into our area once again. Present ensembles have also picked up on the idea with current NBM now giving us a 10 to 20 percent chance of seeing precipitation in our west and north clear into Friday evening. However, given that this high have been staying very potent in most of the model runs confidence in these chances holding out are not too high. For now, look for temperatures in the upper 90s to triple-digits to be the norm for the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Present radar has continue to see the front boundary have a much better push south than initial models have expect. This has resulted in some vicinity thunderstorms around KAMA with both KDHT and KGUY have much longer last storm impacts as well. These impacts to the terminals are likely to continue through the next couple of hours with storms looking to be rather quick to die off now that the front is further south. Still look for broken to scatter cloud bases to be present through sunrise for all of the terminals albeit with VFR level in terms of CIGS. Otherwise, another round of showers and thunderstorms remain possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, with confidence now growing that KAMA will likely see the first impacts in the mid to late afternoon timeframe.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.