textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are favored for Sunday and Monday across portions of the western and central combined Panhandles.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times from Monday night through Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The Panhandles will see decreasing winds the rest of today in the wake of this morning's cold front passage, with overnight lows dipping around or just below the freezing mark across the area. Tomorrow holds in store another day of fire weather potential, as even drier air and breezier winds look to infiltrate the forecast area. Looking at the big picture, the vast majority of the Lone Star State will be situated beneath southwest flow aloft, well ahead of a closed low churning off the Baja Peninsula. This will help generate a tightening surface pressure gradient atop the Panhandles, producing 15-25 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 35 mph. Looking at forecast soundings, there will be about a 10% chance for rogue gusts >40 mph to bleed down to the surface, primarily across the northwest to central TX Panhandle. Strong advection of drier air to the region will take place as a result, with single digit relative humidity values looking likely across much of the western and central Panhandles. Critical fire weather conditions will be focused on areas of highest winds in our west- northwest counties, with elevated fire weather likely elsewhere. Sunday night will stay breezy with mild lows in the 40s for most locations.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

As the aforementioned Baja low slowly saunters eastward Monday, another dry and breezy day is forecast, with potential for record highs in the 80s across most of the area. Humidity values will be comparable to Sunday, with westerly winds favored to be just a touch lighter (15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph). Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be forecast once again across much of the Texas Panhandle.

Models show the low finally making greater eastward progression Monday night into Tuesday, with increasing southwest flow aloft leading the charge. This pattern will pull improved mid-level Pacific moisture to the region, along with higher sfc dew points to at least the southeast portions of the Panhandles, possibly even further northwest. As energy with this system arrives, scattered showers and storms could develop Monday night into Tuesday (20-40% POPs). Depending on the timing and track of the low, a dry slot would be favored to intrude upon the CWA later in the day, confining the majority of any afternoon-evening storm chances to the far eastern Panhandles at best. Strong to severe storms can't be ruled out, but eastward trends amongst ensemble guidance favor this threat to remain mostly outside of our forecast area.

Precip chances greatly decline as the system exits, but some medium- long range models hint at faint wrap around moisture behind a cold front arriving Tue night. Breezy north winds with this front will bring quite the noticeable cool down into Wednesday, cooling highs to well below seasonal averages in the 50s to low 60s. Weak northwest flow aloft the rest of the week would promote a warming trend till the weekend, with another breezy day likely Thursday. Some of these days may need to be monitored for additional fire weather potential.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the 18z TAF period. Winds will shift to southerly later this evening and overnight, increasing out of the southwest at 10-15 kts towards the end of the period.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CST Sunday for TXZ001>004- 006>009-011>013-016-017.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CST Sunday for OKZ001-002.