textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Increasing chances for impactful winter weather this weekend, with the main concern being accumulating snow and very cold wind chills.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

The calm before the storm over the next 48 hours. Dry northwest flow continues with cold overnight lows in the 20s. A weak backdoor cold front will keep highs in the low 50s on Wednesday, with a similar situation again on Thursday. The main difference on Thursday is that we do have a weak surface low expected to develop over eastern NM, and that will draw up some southwest flow to the southwestern Panhandles. That could result in a pocket of warmer air keeping highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, where the northern Panhandle will be more on the back side of that low bringing in colder air, and highs may only get into the mid 40s. Thursday evening into overnight is when the initial surge of colder arctic air is expected. That will bring lows down into the teens Thursday night and wind chills in the single digits by early Friday morning. Additionally, with the east to northeast flow across the Panhandles, a good swath of low level moisture in central and east Texas will be pulled into the southern Panhandles overnight. This will result in low clouds, and if the moisture pool is deep enough, the possibility of snow to start.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Friday through Sunday night looks to have the potential to be quite significant when it comes to winter weather. And this is more on a large scale when the focus is on all of the potential areas that will be impacted by this storm. There is a very large moisture swath coming in off the eastern Pacific (Baja region). And that moisture will start in the upper levels but fill down to the 700mb area by Friday evening. However as noted in the short term discussion there will be some deeper low level moisture from the Gulf near the surface. And that may be just enough to get the snow started, while we await the entire column of air to saturate. By Friday evening the upper trough will be centered just south of the CA/Mexico border, and ample moist southwest flow will continue to keep the mid levels moist, and when it comes to the lower levels we'll have an 850mb high centered over eastern Nebraska, setting up a more easterly flow over the Panhandles. Add to that the moisture being pulled up from the Gulf under the southerly flow, as it merges with that easterly upslope flow we have the potential to see significant snowfall across the east and even central to western Panhandles. All of this is coupled with cold arctic air that starts to intrude Thursday night into Friday. And by Friday evening with a fully saturated column up to 200mb and the temperatures in the teens to single digits, we're looking at the potential for some pretty high snow to liquid ratios. Which means we don't even have to have high liquid QPF amounts get higher snow accumulations. Overall, there is a wide range of potential snow amounts for this event, but the mean snow amounts on NBM are ranging from 5-9 inches along...south...and east of the Canadian River Valley. That's just the mean. Several areas are suggesting a 75% chance of 3-5 inches, so with that and the consistency from run to run of the potential for significant snow, we will be going out with a Winter Storm Watch for most of the Panhandles (Northwest will be the exception). As per usual with winter weather in the Panhandles, there is the potential for the arctic air to push drier air into the Panhandles and suppress that moisture further south. And the Panhandles do have a history of this outcome. However, this moisture swath is so large and abundant (which is not as common) that it's hard to see that scenario playing out at this time. We'll wait and see, and make adjustments to our winter highlights as needed, but for now the southern and eastern Panhandle, and along the Canadian River Valley look favorable for significant snow accumulations this weekend. And while the northwest will not be in the watch, that could change if the moisture path changes. All areas should be prepared for winter impacts this weekend. The snow timing is expected to really pick up Friday evening into Saturday, with it dropping off Saturday afternoon in the northwest, and should be don in the southeast by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Next will be the arctic airmass this weekend. The very large cold airmass centered over the Great Lakes will be responsible for the strong backdoor cold front that start Thursday night. The air will continue to get colder through the day on Friday into Saturday morning, where wind chills are currently bottoming out in the -5 to - 15F range. This will likely support at least a Cold Weather Advisory, if not a Potential Extreme Cold event. We'll have to wait and see just how cold it will be as we get closer, but the confidence is fairly high (60-80%) in negative wind chills on Saturday morning.

West to northwest flow will return Sunday into Tuesday. We'll still have some cold highs on Sunday as we anticipate decent snowpack, despite the attempt at warmer air to push into the Panhandles. Overall, looking at highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Monday looks to try to get into the upper 30s to lower 40s, but again, snowpack could keep those temperatures down. Tuesday continues that warming trend, where most likely the northwest would be out of the snow pack and highs are looking to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, with the southeast still struggling to get into the lower 40s. Overall, after the winter weather ends on Sunday, we should be dry and on a warming trend through Tuesday.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. A good push of wind to shift out of the north behind a front tonight at 15-20 kts. Some LLWS will be present as the front moves through. And that will go through about 12z. Winds will come back around to the south to southwest in the 5-10kt range after 18z and continue through the rest of the TAF period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for TXZ003>005-007>020-317.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for OKZ003.