textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms remain possible this afternoon and evening with passage of a cold front.

- Cooler and drier temperatures look to follow behind the front Friday.

- Warmer and drier conditions look follow this weekend and next week with the return of high pressure.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

As of this afternoon, present radar and satellite were seeing the close low system continue to make its way across the Panhandles, which has put most of the area under strong subsidence. This subsidence has resulted in more stable conditions this afternoon which has kept showers and activity limited. Still present radar has seen some of the moisture that has been following this low wrap around which has resulted in the far edges of the Western and Northern Panhandles to receive some showers during the morning hours. This activity is likely to continue through the afternoon with CAMs expecting the low to break down into more of an upper- level trough. As this process is occurring many of the CAMs expect a cold front to push in from the north later this evening and force the ongoing storms to spread across the Panhandles through the late night hours. There are some limitations to this however, with the primary being the front itself. Given the still high amounts of subsidence still present in the area most storms will struggle to survive without the support of the front. This means that storms will only last for as long as the front remains present, which latest CAM runs are saying might not be for very long. Still any storm that do move in will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, which can pose a flooding threat for areas that have already seen a lot of rainfall this week. Regardless, the passage of this front will mark a turn towards quieter and cooler weather for the Panhandles. Look for afternoon high temperatures Friday to only reach the mid 60s while low temperatures that morning could be drop as low as the 40s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A full break down of the trough continues to trend by Saturday with most models agreeing to a new upper-level ridge slowly building into an upper-level high pressure system across the Western United States this weekend. With the high building, most models see the Panhandles returning to much drier conditions with chances of precipitation dropping below 10 percent for both days. This pattern looks to continue into next week with present model agreement seeing the high hold through Monday. By Tuesday, models do suggest that high can break down in favor or a weak trough pushing through. However, chances of precipitation are not looking too great with current ensembles only giving us around 10 to 15 percent chance that evening. Regardless this system looks to be short lived with most models seeing a new ridge build in by Wednesday. As for temperatures, cooler weather does look to hold for at least one more day with Saturday seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s that morning. Beyond that, however, a warming trend does look to follow with afternoon highs heating back into the mid to upper 80s for the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

As of this afternoon, present radar has seen subsidence winning out with showers and thunderstorms staying out of the Panhandles. However, this activity has result in some low cloud decks present across all the terminals that has seen CIGs dip in and out of MVFR conditions this afternoon. By this evening present CAMs are still expecting a cold front to push in which will see the start of isolated to scattered storms across the area that may impact the terminals through the late night hours. At this time primary concern for any storm will be more on the reduce visibility from moderate to heavy rainfall, but occasional lightning can't be ruled out either. Regardless, look of this cloud cover to hold through the overnight with potential to briefly see CIGs drop to IFR levels.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.