textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. Dangerous 110 degree heat is still expected for the Palo Duro Canyon today.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue today through Friday, primarily in the northwest.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Hot temperatures continue in the short term, but dangerous +110 degree heat is expected to be much more limited. Highs today for most of the area should range between 99-107 degrees. Exceptions include Palo Duro Canyon, where extreme heat is still expected. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the state park today given the potential for temperatures to reach 110. Areas along the Canadian River Valley may also approach 110, but recent 00Z models suggest moisture may be just a bit too high and limit temperatures below extreme heat criteria. Still, temperatures upwards of 109 are possible in isolated areas of Moore and Hutchinson county near the river valley. PoPs this evening are still focused in the NW, with a low chance they extend further south and east. Some CAMs like the 00Z HRRR attempt to generate convection along thunderstorm outflow in the Texas Panhandle, but overall ensemble guidance suggest this outcome has an unlikely chance (<10%) of manifesting.

Tomorrow, highs are still on a slight downward trend. Based off current guidance, a Heat Advisory will be more difficult to justify for areas outside of Palo Duro Canyon. Still, widespread 100s are expected with a few areas in the northwest still hanging onto the upper 90s. PoPs have also seen an uptick in the northwest tomorrow evening due to 00Z CAMs increasing thunderstorm coverage across our CWA. Isolated to scattered storms can be expected from the early evening to the overnight hours into Thursday.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Headlines of heat and limited precipitation continue in the extended. Upper level high pressure will slide south on Wednesday and Thursday before finally transitioning west on Friday and the weekend. Next week is where the upper level pattern become interesting, since long range guidance is not keen on keeping the ridge anchored over the Four Corners region. Models suggest there will be an elongation of the ridge across the CONUS heading into Monday. Zonal flow aloft appears possible if troughing becomes more restricted. Beyond Day 7, models still have some uncertainty on the placement of high pressure, but there are some hints that it could set up over the eastern CONUS.

High temperatures should still slowly degrade and bottom out in the mid to upper 90s this weekend. By next Monday, signals for more widespread 100s return to the forecast, so relief from heat will either be temporary or non-existant. PoPs remain in play for the rest of the week. If northwest flow is to be cut off and replaced by zonal flow, much drier conditions can be expected for next week.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The only exception will be if a thunderstorms impacts a terminal which can lead to MVFR visibilities. The current ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms may persist for the next several hours before dissipating. Then further rain showers and thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and evening. This round of storms will most likely impact the western panhandles including KDHT and KGUY with a lesser chance for KAMA. Temperatures will be very hot across the panhandles leading to increased density altitudes at all terminals.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005- 007>020.

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.