textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Severe thunderstorm chances continue for most of the Panhandles on Thursday and Friday.

- Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon on Thursday with highs around 105 degrees.

- Triple digit high temperatures expected Saturday through Monday for many locations, with potential heat products needed.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Latest 04Z sfc obs shows abundant moisture with Td values well into the 60s, and event a few lower 70s. Also watching some severe thunderstorms enter the far SW TX Panhandle with gusts up to 60 mph reported with this activity already. Latest 00Z RAOB data from AMA confirming good values of ML/SB CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with good overall effective shear (0-6 km) of 30- 40 kts. If the main energy sources can overcome the CINH, this established activity out of NM should continue through the southwestern and portions of the central TX Panhandle later tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards. Axis of motion of storms should follow an ESE track, with this established activity exiting the Panhandles to our southeast right before sunrise. However just before sunrise, another area of activity to watch will be the northeastern Panhandles, where established convection earlier on from the foothills of the central Rockies may reach the far northeaster areas with additional thunderstorm threats, some severe. In addition, where some areas of the northeastern Panhandles has received several inches of rain in the past 24-48 hours, a Flood WAtch has been issued through Thursday for additional flooding due to heavy rainfall rates from thunderstorms.

The main thunderstorm activity from Thursday will be combination of additional perturbation in the established WNW H500 flow, along with a nearly quasi-stationary sfc front draped across the northern Panhandles by tomorrow afternoon. Lift from storms aloft from perturbation, along with sfc convergence along thew boundary, and instability values above 2000 J/kg by tomorrow afternoon should set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop. Along and south of the aforementioned front will be most favored for large hail and damaging winds. If storm mode can remain most discrete initially as storm develop along the front, we cannot rule out a tornado or two initially as direction shear along front with some cyclic hodographs illustrating notable change in height, along with LCL values at or under 1000m. Will have to watch northern combined Panhandles closely and track where this initial front stalls Thursday afternoon. Some residual thunderstorms activity may linger once again through Thursday night in the WNW H500 flow regime. High temperatures on Thursday will climb into the 93-103 range, even reaching 105 potentially at PDC, where a Heat Advisory is in from late morning throughout the afternoon hours.

As the main H500 trough begins to depend across the intermountain west, our H500 flow over the Panhandles will become more WSW with a developing high pressure system over the northern Gulf of America. This should provide the corridor for thunderstorm chances on Friday to be most favored for the northern Panhandles. Some storms on Friday could be severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. High temperatures on Friday will range from 90-100.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The heat will be on This coming weekend into next week. Latest global model guidance slowly builds an H500 high pressure system into the Ohio River Valley region by the middle of next week. Based off the orientation of best moisture transport around this main H500 high, this could favor some diurnally driven thunderstorm chances, mainly favoring the western TX Panhandle. Those chances will have to be analyzed daily based off current obs and model trends as chances for rain continue through early next week. Overall temperatures remain well above average through the weekend into next week. In particular, Saturday through Monday, the potential for widespread highs of 100-105 exists each day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A weather system is brining rain showers and thunderstorms to the panhandles today. Currently this is causing high based rain showers with limited impacts this morning. It wont be until this afternoon that thunderstorms are expected to form that can impact all terminals. These thunderstorms will start in the northwest this afternoon and depart in the southeast during the evening. There is a low chance for these thunderstorms to be severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Later tonight there is a low chance for a bank of low clouds to build across mainly the northern panhandles. This is reflected within the KGUY taf but is not reflected in the KDHT TAF as chance of occurrence decreases southward. MVFR conditions are most likely for stations impacted by this bank of low clouds, although IFR cannot be ruled out.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ005.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ003.