textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Heat related illnesses may occur for those that are outside through Saturday across the Panhandles due to the expected historically hot temperatures.

- Any outdoor activities that may create sparks or flames are not recommended on Saturday and Sunday due to critical fire weather conditions.

- Near record breaking temperatures may occur once again in the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

The center of an H500 high pressure system remains over southern Arizona early this afternoon. With no significant changes to the weather pattern across the Panhandles being observed, very similar conditions to yesterday are expected this afternoon. Winds will be out of the north to northeast around 5-15 mph with occasional higher gusts, mainly for the northwestern combined Panhandles. Temperatures today will be exceptionally hot once again, with forecast highs in the 90s and cannot even rule out a few areas reaching the triple digit mark for the first time this season. Palo Duro Canyon State Park is one of those areas and a Heat Advisory has been issued for this afternoon due to the historically hot March temperatures.

The ridge will begin to break down on Sunday but the center axis is forecast to move over the region during the day on Saturday. With the ridge breaking down, this should lead to a pattern that favors a leeside low pressure system forming by early afternoon across the higher terrain to the west of the CWA. The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the area leading to breezy southwest winds. Even though the winds will not be the strongest, the historically hot temperatures combined with very dry surface conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday afternoon. The high temperatures tomorrow may break the all time record highs for March, which are in the mid 90s for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some breezy winds may continue through the night out of the southwest as the surface low moves east into western Kansas. For those areas that keep winds of around 10 mph or so all night, very warm lows in the mid to upper 50s will be possible going into Sunday morning.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

By sunrise on Sunday morning, a cold front should be quickly moving south across the southern High Plains. This front may already be located across portions of the northern Panhandles by sunrise and will continue to race south through the day. Model guidance is starting to come into better agreement regarding the timing of this feature, with the front being south of the area by early afternoon. Strong north to northeast winds are expected in its wake, with wind gusts reaching 40-45 mph at the highest. Temperatures should also cool throughout the day as a colder air mass moves in behind the front. Due to the stronger winds and continued dry conditions, critical fire weather will arise once again across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Winds will decrease going into Sunday evening and will become more easterly to northeasterly. The cooler air mass will remain in place on Monday even though winds become southerly throughout the day. Temperatures are forecast to rise up into the 70s across the region, which unfortunately is likely the coolest day of the next week.

Another upper level high pressure system is forecast to develop and strengthen over the Desert Southwest towards far southwest Texas in the middle of next week. Strong WAA returns given this set-up and temperatures should quickly rise back up into the 80s and 90s through at least Wednesday, if not Thursday. Due to the hot temperatures, elevated to critical fire weather may occur on any of the hottest days next week if there are breezy to gusty winds. There are clear model differences in the timing of another potential cold front at the end of next week, whether it moves in on Thursday or holds off until Friday, so confidence in the forecast beyond Wednesday drops off considerably at this point.

Muscha

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Conditions are expected to remain dry over the next 24 hours with winds at the surface relatively light. Despite this, do look for direction of these winds to shift more southerly during the overnight period and hold that direction through tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will look to hold for all terminals through the package.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Saturday and Sunday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

For Saturday...historically hot temperatures are expected during the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s and a few locations may even reach the triple digit mark for the first time this year. The heat combined with dry surface conditions will result in relative humidity values dropping down to 4-9 percent across the entire area. Winds will not be the strongest thankfully, but still will be breezy out of the southwest around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. The dry and breezy conditions will result in Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values upwards of 4-5.

For Sunday...a cold front will race south over the Panhandles on Sunday, resulting in gusty north winds behind the front. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the north to upper 80s across the south due to colder air moving in behind the front. Even though relative humidity values will increase behind the front, the strong north winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions due to the very dry grasses. RFTI values on Sunday could be as high as 4 to 5, with the highest values across the south where temperatures will be warmer.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>020- 317.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for OKZ001>003.