textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fire weather conditions continue for the next couple of days. Even critical fire weather is anticipated in the northwest on Monday. Conditions remain favorable for fires to spread quickly.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Tuesday, but chances for impactful rainfall increase more so Thursday onward.

The potential for severe thunderstorms late week will continue to be monitored. There are still many uncertainties.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light and variable winds continue at the surface this morning an will persist until the afternoon. Breezy, southerly winds will take over much of the area, barring the far east. High temperatures today are forecast to range in the 70's. Elevated fire weather conditions continue today given our breezy and dry conditions. Tomorrow, temperatures are not expected to fluctuate much. Highs will still top out in the 70's. Southwesterly winds will be strong across the CWA, ranging from 15-25 mph sustained. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the northwest panhandles where wind speeds will be the strongest. Minimum RH values continue to bottom out in the teens through the short term period.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Our next weather pattern shift begins at the start of the extended period. Upper level ridging in the west is replaced by a strong upper low. This new system will slowly track across the southwest CONUS through the rest of the week. Most long range guidance also displays moisture surging from the Gulf of America and into the plains. The combination of these atmospheric influences will allow for convection on multiple days this week.

Forecast 1-3 km Theta-E profiles appear modest on Tuesday compared to days later this week. Aforementioned concerns about PoPs and QPF hold true for the day. While the global models remain unenthusiastic, their ensemble members retain PoPs across most of the area. These factors are definitely dictating higher NBM PoPs; however, they may be overdone for locations outside the western combined panhandles. Dry air is still expected to dominate at the surface, with dewpoints forecast to range in the 30's through most of the day and high temperatures will be in the 70's. Model forecast soundings show a limited window, if any at all, for mid and upper level profiles to become saturated and precipitate. Showers or thunderstorms will need strong forcing to allow rain to reach the ground; otherwise, virga is the more likely outcome. At that point in time, the upper level low may be too displaced to influence upper level forcing. The leading factor for lift appears to be mountain convection off the high terrain. Storms may struggle to hold together as the move east, given unfavorable instability anticipated across the region. It is for these reasons why we suspect the western panhandles will be best favored for precipitation, while locations further east may struggle to receive any on Tuesday.

By Thursday, and especially Friday, guidance shows strong signals for precipitation across the combined panhandles. QPF values this far out still vary amongst models, but many are suggesting that favorable rainfall is on the table. For example, yesterday's 12Z LREF shows 40-60% probs for the region to at least receive 0.5" of rain by the end of the week (Event Total QPF), with a lower 10-30% chance for locations to receive at least 1" or rain by the end of the week (Event Total QPF). These probabilities are higher for areas further southeast than for areas further northwest. Chances for severe storms also cannot be ruled out; however, the mesoscale details are difficult to resolve this far out in time. Generally, CAPE profiles and wind shear look to be sufficient daily, with some days showing higher values than others. Rain chances look to continue well into next weekend as the upper level low approaches and potentially moves overhead of the High Plains.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are very likely over the next 24 hours. Very light winds this morning will become a bit breezy during the afternoon with sustained winds around 10-15 kts. Those breezy winds will stick around through the end of this TAF cycle. Mostly clear skies are expected.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for OKZ001-002.