textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Thunderstorm chances are highest across the entire combined Panhandles this Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding are increasing, mainly across the western combined Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Afternoon cloud coverage continues to decrease across the CWA. Patches of this morning's low level clouds still exist in the southern Texas Panhandle, but convection has finally eroded and moved east out of our area. This evening, rain chances continue to decrease. This is due to another frontal boundary traversing through the region and it continues to move into the Southern Plains at the time of this writing. This boundary will act as an axis for convection to develop off of later today, but CAMs are catching on to the notion that these storms may stay completely south of our FA; perhaps only affecting the southern Texas Panhandle at worst.

Tonight, spotty showers and low cloud may generate over portions of the combined Panhandles. Where exactly these showers will form is still a bit uncertain since upper-level vorticity and the low level jet are relatively weak over the region Tuesday soring. As a result, impacts from early morning rainfall will be quite limited. This abundant surface moisture should, at the very least, allow cloud cover to be widespread over the CWA tonight and Tuesday morning.

Tomorrow, highs should range again from the mid 70s to lower 80s, with 80s more favored across our eastern zones. Afternoon thunderstorm activity should be limited to the far western Panhandles, due to forcing and moisture profiles being stronger across New Mexico rather than further east. It won't be until Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when the Panhandle region will be more in play.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

No major changes were made to the long term forecast period. High pressure remains centered, as mentioned, over the Texas and Louisiana gulf coast, while the axis of the ridge extends into portions of the central Great Plains. PoPs for the rest of the continue to show likely (>55%) precipitation over much of the area, but rain chances still have room to decrease in the coming days due to uncertainties regarding storm mode. This weekend into early next week, the weather pattern may shift back to drier and warmer conditions as high pressure moves more overhead of the region. We'll have to wait for our next cold front to drop our temperatures back down to being average or below average.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Low clouds have finally cleared out of all TAF sites and VFR conditions are expected through the rest of Monday. Breezy winds from the northeast are forecast to continue at KAMA this afternoon. All sites will host light, easterly winds by this evening. Thunderstorm chances are too low at all sites to include mentions of thunder. Amendments, or mentions in future issuances, will be made if an isolated cell can develop over any of the terminals tonight or tomorrow morning. Model signals are pointing to another round of low level clouds tomorrow morning at all TAF sites. Confidence is low on what time these clouds will develop, but chances for MVFR and IFR ceilings Tuesday morning are on the rise.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.