textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours today through Wednesday. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

- High temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees is expected throughout this week. Expecting highs to increase further as we head into the holiday weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Today our primary weather focus is on the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening, but hot temperatures and gusty winds continue to linger across the entire Panhandles. An area of surface low pressure centered over eastern Colorado is laying a tight pressure gradient over the Panhandles today, keeping us quite breezy with 20-30 mph winds gusting around 40 mph at times. These stronger south winds are maintaining moisture transport to the region, with 60s to even low 70s dew points being observed in our southeast counties early this afternoon. Drier air across most of our northern and western counties will keep them quieter with hot and breezy conditions.

Southwest flow in the mid to upper levels will provide improved theta-e and vorticity advection this afternoon and evening, which will promote better conditions for storms to develop along the dry line. The presence of this better moisture and lift should help storm development survive today compared to previous days, but lingering mixed-layer inhibition could still prove detrimental to convective initiation like we saw over the weekend. Best scattered storm chances (20-30%) are along and east of the dry line, which should be positioned from a Hereford to Borger to Beaver line. Shear is weak (<20kts), but CAPE and DCAPE are both more than sufficient today to support a threat of severe wind gusts with any storm (~1500- 2000 J/kg of both parameters). Any storms that pop up this afternoon- evening should fizzle out overnight as they lose daytime heating.

For tomorrow, models show deep troughing digging down over the desert southwest before lifting over the Rockies through the day. This will put the base of the trough axis over much of the southern High Plains, providing additional lift and moisture return to the Panhandles. Breezy south winds and high temperatures in the 90s are slated to provide enough energy across more of the western and central Panhandles when the upper level disturbance arrives. PWATs of 1.25-1.75" will be spread atop the region, along with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Thunderstorm chances increase slightly to 20-50% as a result, which could produce hit or miss storms with better beneficial rainfall potential in tandem with a low damaging wind threat. Any area that does get a stronger storm will have 10-40% probabilities to exceed 0.5" of rainfall.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Wednesday appears to be our last truly decent rain chance for the rest of the week, as models show large scale troughing firmly atop the region. Afternoon highs continue their gradual decline as 850mb temps decrease, but breezy south winds will maintain the presence of quality moisture through the atmosphere. As a result of these factors, moisture, lift, and instability should be sufficient for afternoon and evening scattered storm development across much of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Not everyone will see storms, but the potential will be favorable for more of the CWA. We will have to monitor the quality of wind shear to see if storms could become more organized/severe.

Ensemble guidance has previously shown our upper level pattern significantly shifting to end this week, with hotter temperatures and almost no rain chances Thursday into next week. However, newest global model runs now depict southwest flow/troughing holding over the region through Saturday. While triple digit temperatures are still likely to return Panhandles wide by the weekend, we actually could have low chances for spotty convection recurring each day of the long term. The most likely days for storms unfortunately appears to be for the 4th of July weekend, which could impact outdoor plans. One promising note for fans of fireworks and festivities is that wind speeds are projected to be much lighter both Saturday and Sunday.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR sky conditions are favored at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds stay breezy out of the south at 15-25 kts gusting up to 35 kts. LLWS will be in place overnight for at least KGUY and KAMA, but potentially at KDHT as well. A rogue storm or two could still materialize this evening near KAMA, warranting the continuance of a PROB30 group for the terminal.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.