textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Fire weather conditions persist. Elevated conditions are expected today, while critical fire weather still looms over Thursday. Strong winds may also extend the fire weather threat into Friday, despite the lower temperatures and higher RH values.

Record heat returns to the panhandles, with 90's expected today and tomorrow. A few locations may also hit 100 degrees, especially on Thursday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Palo Duro Canyon today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

H500 heights continue to rise in the short term period as high pressure builds overhead. New 00Z model runs suggest that the high pressure center could be even higher than previous forecasts, which will promote warmer temperature profiles across the CWA. Forecast 850 mb temperatures support these changes; but while calculating surface highs from these mid level temperatures, there shouldn't be too much of a discrepancy from this morning's 12Z NBM. No major changes were made for highs these next couple of days except at the Palo Duro Canyon. A Heat Advisory has been issued today due to abnormally hot temperatures above 100 degrees expected in the canyon this afternoon. Elsewhere, highs will cap out in the lower to upper 90's and daily records should easily be broken at all climate sites.

Fire weather conditions are expected to persist for the next several days. For more information, see the FIRE WEATHER discussion where details will be provided.

Tomorrow, even hotter conditions are expected across the region. Historic, monthly records have the chance to be broken as several locations in our FA may hit 100 degrees or more. The Palo Duro Canyon will likely need another Heat Advisory, as temperatures soaring to 105 degrees or more appear highly probable.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Upper level high pressure become suppressed at the start of the extended. After the cold front moves through on Friday, temperatures profiles will sharply fall in it's wake. The upper level pattern will settle into zonal flow until our next trough arrives next week. Until then, temperatures will steadily climb.

Average to below average highs (50's & 60's) are forecast for Friday, but we will quickly return to the 70's on Saturday and 80's by Sunday. Long range models show strong mid level winds mixing down to the surface, creating breezy conditions through the weekend and possibly further into next week. Ensemble guidance is still somewhat mixed on the quality and placement of the potential moisture Monday onward. One consistent feature is some amount of precipitation for the panhandles. How much and where in the region is still changing between runs, so we'll continue to monitor these changes.

Rangel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

No major changes from the previous forecast.

VFR conditions continue at all sites for the foreseeable future. FEW high clouds are expected tonight and tomorrow with light winds generally expected at all terminals. KAMA should be the only site to experience breezy, southerly winds this afternoon. Surface winds are expected to stay up overnight at KAMA.

Rangel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Very dry fuels, low RH values, breezy winds, and record heat will generate elevated to critical fire weather conditions for the next couple of days. Today, lighter winds will prevent critical fire weather conditions from being achieved. Still, elevated conditions will be met. A Rangeland Fire Danger (RFD) forecast has been issued for many portions of the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. According to the Hot Dry and Windy Index (HDWI), GEFS ensembles suggest that we are in the 90th percentile of hot, dry, and windy days for this time of year today. Tomorrow, much of the ensemble members enter into the 95th percentile. These conditions are driven by even lower minimum RH values (<10%) and windy (+20 mph) surface winds anticipated for Thursday. Critical fire weather is expected across the entire CWA. As the fire risk decreases Thursday evening, a cold front is expected to arrive and surface winds will become northerly. Wind speeds behind the cold front are also expected to increase, with gusts as high as 45 mph forecast. While RH values will slowly start to recover, any ongoing fire will still have the potential to quickly spread south.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003.