textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon and Thursday. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting tonight in the northwest, with activity possible clear into the weekend.

- A dry and hot pattern may return next week with high pressure looking to settle over the Central and Northern Great Plains.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The beginning of a pattern shift is expected today as models see an upper-level trough try to force it way east out of the Alaska Region. In doing this the trough will force the upper-level ridge and its associated high pressure to retreat southwest out the Panhandles. This retreat will then open us up to better potential for showers and thunderstorms this evening as the first or many short-waves push across. Currently the best chances are mostly across the Northwest, however early morning runs of the CAMs have seen some storms extend further south than initially expected with some low chances (10 to 15 percent) of reaching the I-40 corridor this evening. As for Thursday, model agreement continues to see a much stronger short-wave push through leading much better chances (30 to 50 percent) of showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Panhandles that evening and night. What we will need to be monitor, however, is the potential for lingering boundaries from todays activity. If these boundaries can stay within the Panhandles, then it is possible for activity to start much earlier and further south then present forecasts have.

In terms of potential impacts for today and Thursday, most model soundings have see us struggle in terms of instability with any CAPE values struggling to reach 1000 J/kg for both days across our north. However, those same models are showing decent inverted V style soundings with DCAPE upwards 1700 to 1900 J/kg. With this signal present, it would possible to see thunderstorms capable of producing outflow wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, especially in the north where both chances and DCAPE are at their best. However if we can get storms to spread further south Thursday, then there is some slightly better CAPE and moisture to work with that could result in large hail and localized minor flooding concerns for the day. Meanwhile the south will also have to deal with the potential impact of warmer than expected temperatures for both days. While normally this would not be much of a concern, this slight increase could result in much of the south reaching or nearing the triple digit mark for both afternoons. In some of our hotter locations, like the Palo Duro Canyon, these hotter temperature can be amplified to the point that a heat related product may be needed.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

As we progress towards the end of the week, model do see the retreat of the high holding which will allow for the Panhandles to fall back into a more northwesterly to zonal upper-level flow pattern. This patter is more ideal in opening us up to more short- wave activity pushing through clear into the weekend. As it stands, present model runs have been keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms present each day. Friday in particular, continues to trend as best chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms with models depicting more potent short-waves pushing across the Central Great Plains that afternoon. Of course the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could be present each day, with current CAMs seeing much better CAPE values present for Friday.

Regardless, still lingering high pressure to our southwest will look to keep temperatures hot with most locations looking to stay in the mid to upper 90s for the rest of the week. However in some of our locations like the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, the terrain influence could see temperatures rise to much more. This potential will only look to increase as we near Sunday with many of the models seeing the ridge and its upper-level high return and push further north into the Great Plains for most of next week. While this push may briefly help push storms chances further south on for the weekend, the Panhandles could be in for a hot and dry week, should the pattern hold into the next work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

As of this afternoon, dry conditions are still holding with all terminals reporting VFR conditions. However, a shortwave is expected to push across the Panhandles later this evening that could produce showers and thunderstorms across most of the Northern Panhandles. Currently impacts are more likely for KDHT and KGUY, with timing from CAMS seeing it more likely after 00 UTC. The main threat from these storms is more likely to be strong to damaging winds, through brief pockets of heavy rainfall and small hail can't be fully ruled. Meanwhile, KAMA is very unlikely to see impacts from storms this evening, with only a couple of CAMS giving us around a 10% chance of anything developing. Otherwise, storms looked to weaken around the midnight time frame, with VFR conditions looking to return not long after.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.