textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1106 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Very low chances (10-20 percent) for light rain across the northeastern Panhandles Tuesday night.

- Other than Wednesday, temperatures are expected to remain above average through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1106 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

H500 troughing moves across the region on Tuesday which will usher in cooler air across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Northerly winds are expected all night in the wake of a cold frontal passage from Monday evening. The northerly winds will not last as winds are forecast to become light and southerly by late afternoon on Tuesday. The cooler air mass will lead to highs in the lower 60s to upper 50s. The base of the positively tilted trough will sit over the CWA on Wednesday. Lift associated with the base of the trough may move over as limited moisture in the atmosphere is in place across the northeastern Panhandles. Very light rain or more likely, sprinkles may develop on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The potential for more widespread flurries/sprinkles seems to be on a downward trend as forecast soundings do not support much, if any, precipitation. CAA will move in on Wednesday leading to highs around 10 degrees or so cooler than Tuesday. Some areas may even stay in the upper 40s for highs, which is close to average for early February. Breezy to gusty northerly winds are expected throughout the day on Wednesday, with gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph. Winds decrease going into Wednesday night with lows dropping below freezing.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1106 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Late this week through this weekend looks to be highlighted by above average temperatures with continued dry conditions. Forecast highs Thursday through at least Sunday look to remain in the 60s to 70s with overnight lows around freezing. An upper level ridge, extending from far western portions of the Gulf of America up to British Columbia, looks to remain in place over the southern High Plains through at least Sunday. Further west, a cutoff low pressure system just off of the west coast of Baja California, is forecast to combine with a trough moving onshore across the western CONUS to northwestern Mexico. With all these systems in place, odds are the models will continue to flip flop and change the potential solutions as they struggle to figure out exactly how all of these systems interact when they are in close proximity to each other. The current consensus is that the above average temperatures continue into early next week but as the trough moves across the Desert Southwest, some moisture may move across west Texas leading to precipitation chances. Just where and if that will pan out is highly uncertain at this point.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a very low chance for precipitation in the NE portions of the panhandles tonight with no showers expected to impact any terminal. Winds will be generally weak and northerly through today. Tonight a cold front passes across the panhandles which will bring windy conditions to all terminals that will last through Wednesday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.