textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Potential for widespread thunderstorm chances on Tuesday including a slight risk for damaging wind gusts, with general thunderstorms Wed-Fri.

- Potential Heat Advisory for 105 degree temps for PDC on Tuesday, then small break with 90s or perhaps even some 80s Wed-Fri before near 105 degree temps return for some areas over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The latest observational data this evening shows a weak frontal boundary draped from east central New Mexico to the far southern TX Panhandle to near OKC. Weak east northeast winds have been established behind this boundary, with dew points in the upper 40s in the southern TX Panhandle to near 60 in the far northeast combined Panhandles. The latest radar, lightning, and GOES data does show some showers and a few thunderstorms rounding the upper level high pressure near the Raton Pass in response to an ridge rider (upper level perturbation/disturbance). Another area of storms was noted along the eastern slopes of the Front Range in CO.

For tonight, the upper level high pressure will continue its very slow retrograde with most short range models placing the high center over central or even west central NM by tomorrow evening. Instability is very limited this evening, but may increase some in advance of this disturbance in the northwest to support a few storms around or after midnight tonight. With DCAPE values around 1600-1800, any storms that can stay rooted near the surface could produce a rogue gusts near 60 mph. Heat bursts may also occur. These storms along with other storms moving into KS could produce outflow that will further re-enforce the northeast winds behind the frontal boundary. The low to mid 60s dew points and reduced vapor pressure deficits currently analyzed in northwest OK are expected to mix west into the Panhandle tonight into tomorrow. The latest HREF median shows low 60s dews moving into AMA by around 10-12z. Meanwhile, a rich H7-H5 theta-E monsoon environment remains over the combined Panhandles.

Going into tomorrow, as the upper high slides further west, northwest flow aloft will become more established over the southern plains. A more significant shortwave trough is being depicted during the evening hours rounding the high pressure and advancing southeast across the combined Panhandles. The latest high resolution guidance has become increasingly confident in a large complex of storms moving off the higher terrain of the Raton Mesa and pushing through the Panhandles during the evening, all while an increasingly unstable airmass emerges behind the boundary amidst weak to modest low level upslope flow. This should be a good setup to keep storms growing upscale and maintaining well into the evening. In addition to MLCAPE values of 1800 to 2200 J/kg and PWATS ranging from 1.3 in the west to 1.6 in the east, effective shear on the order of 30-35 kts also looks likely across the Panhandles in the pre-storm environment. Looking at hodographs, this shear is mostly due to a combination of speed and directional shear from about 700mb to 300mb. Low level shear looks much weaker with nearly unidirectional wind from the surface to around 700mb, resulting in the deep upslope regime. Given all this combined with the well mixed BL, steep lapse rates, and DCAPE around 1500-1800 J/kg, damaging wind gusts are going to be the main concern. Several if not numerous gusts in the 60-70 mph range can be expected, with at least a few exceeding 75 mph with any linear bowing segments within what should be a fairly continuous line of storms. With lacking shear in the low levels (0-3km shear mainly 20kts or less), tornadoes are not expected. There is the possibility of getting some rogue discrete cells ahead of the line (possibly well ahead of the line) within the upslope flow and near the boundary, and these would be the primary threat for large hail given modest CAPE and shear. Some supercell activity can't be ruled out. Rain rates could also be impressive both with discrete cells and the line, so flash flooding is not out of the question even with our very dry soils.

Now for the uncertainties... some models indicated that the outflow from tonight's storms could produce some drier / more stable air that could disrupt or at least delay convection tomorrow. Another limiting factor would be if discrete storms form early and produce stable outflows, which could result in a less continuous line of storms and perhaps some parts of the line that dissipate as they run into the more stable outflow airmass further east. There are also large variance in the timing of the shortwave and main cluster of storms, with some showing arrival in AMA as early as 8 PM and others than are closer to midnight. A later show might limit wind gusts some if surface conditions decouple.

Additional uncertainties are apparent for Wednesday, with the latest guidance delaying storms until late in the evening, and then possibly struggling to survive as they move into the worked over airmass as a shortwave once again traverses the area. There is a chance that high temperatures stay in the 80s Wednesday, which would limit instability considerably. So basically, the more robust activity is Tuesday, the lower the chance the area will see much activity on Wednesday, but higher chance of seeing much cooler temperatures!

Ward

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

After a couple of cooler days with highs in the 90s on Thursday and Friday, unfortunately it looks like we will see a return of triple digit heat next weekend. This is due to the fact that the high pressure center is progged to shift back over the southern plains. Northwest flow will keep evening storm chances through Friday, but activity should be more limited over the weekend.

Ward

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A small cluster of showers and a few storms is slowly advancing east towards northern terminals this evening. Confidence that these will hold together long enough to impact KGUY is very low right now, so will need amendments if they do. It appears this activity will stay just north of KDHT and well north of KAMA. A much more widspread storm event with a lot of wind potential is expected tomorrow evening, and confidence is medium to high that all terminals will be impacted at some point. Will introduce Prob30s for now, but will likely need prevailing TSRA in future forecasts once timing and coverage is refined. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.