textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Monday. Obey all burn bans and practice fire safety to avoid starting a fire.

Potentially impactful rain chances are in place for the end of next across portions of the combined Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Very low end chances for snowfall exist at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A weak shortwave trough exits the Great Plains and enters into the panhandle region of Texas and Oklahoma tonight. Minor fluctuations in mid level flow are expected and will allow surface winds to flip northerly today. A small surge of moisture is still expected tonight, but increased cloud coverage may be the only outcome. Cloud bases may not be low enough for meaningful precipitation to reach the ground, even if moisture is sufficient tonight. At this point, we cannot rule out sprinkles falling somewhere in the southern Texas Panhandle overnight. However, the coverage area remains 10% at best. A slight reduction in high temperatures can be expected across the CWA today, though most areas will still easily reach the 70's.

Monday, warm air advection resumes across the region. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70's with high chances (>70% according to 19Z NBM probabilities) for locations to reach the 80's except in our far western zones. A tight pressure gradient sets up at the surface before our next cold front arrives on Tuesday, but it does not have much upper level support. Strong (20-25 mph) winds are expected through much of the day until the surface low exits Colorado and tracks southeast.

Minimum relative humidity values stay low (<20%) both Sunday and Monday. Light winds on Sunday will hold fire weather concerns at bay, but the same cannot be said for Monday. At least elevated, but potentially critical, fire weather conditions are possible on Monday. Since the event would be largely RH driven, wind speeds are the X-factor that will determine our maximum fire risk. There are still caveats to the set up, as the aforementioned surface low will aid in decreasing wind speeds as it moves into the area on Monday. If the timing of the shortwave is faster than models expect, winds will die down in the north quicker; thus shortening the red flag time frame. Yet, if winds continue to over perform, critical fire weather conditions may be achieved well before the front and corresponding surface low move in.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday due to the passage of a cold front. The strength of the front has increased compared to previous forecast runs. Many locations in the High Plains have a better chance of staying below 60 degrees for the day. Wednesday morning lows will also decrease and return below freezing for most of the CWA. As the closed upper low in northern Mexico becomes an open wave and ejects north, the far southeastern Texas Panhandle is placed on the periphery of the moisture axis Tuesday afternoon. Some passing showers are possible leading into the evening, but QPF remains absent and is forecast to stay minimal.

On Wednesday, the upper ridge redevelops over the region and lingers only for a couple of days before our next large scale trough starts it's decent into the southern CONUS. Temperatures should rebound into the 60's and 70's across the area Wednesday and Thursday.

Our next cold front should arrive by Friday. Currently, temperatures are anticipated to drop back down to average values for this time of year. PoPs are increasing for this period as well and look to affect both Friday and Saturday. The mostly likely precipitation type at this time is rain, since temperatures through most of the time frame will be above freezing. Our northwest zones will get cold enough for snow, but there are still uncertainties with the overall temperature profile. A rain/snow mix is on the table for those areas, but chances for pure snowfall are low across the whole area.

Rangel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Breezy, northerly winds are expected after sunrise this morning at all sites. The time frame for these breezy will actually end by the afternoon, and they should stay light for the rest of the day. VFR conditions prevail.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.