textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through at least Wednesday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, and there is a very low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm each day after.

- Widespread mid-90 to low/mid-100 degree temperatures are expected from Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico stretching into and across the Southern CONUS. A potent trough is spinning southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. Southwesterly flow aloft is present across the southern High Plains.

An outflow-enhanced cold front will push south through the Panhandles tonight with 60-70 degree dew points present behind the front for most. Low clouds are likely to persist through much of the morning hours, but should start to clear out from the west to east in the late morning/afternoon hours as winds turn southeasterly. The cap would remain in place through at least the mid-afternoon hours, but should become uncapped by the late afternoon. Can't entirely rule out some thunderstorms possibly developing in the western Panhandles in the late afternoon hours, but the better chances will come in the evening to overnight when a subtle shortwave will move into the Panhandles. The evening round of thunderstorms will first develop in northeastern New Mexico and move into the Panhandles. As this happens, storms will move into higher moisture content and should strengthen. Instability will become rooted above the increasing nocturnal inversion, and could MUCAPE values could reach into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Effective shear will not be strong but should be in the 30-40 kts range; mostly directional shear though. This could result in some storm organization that should result in a squall line, though a supercell or two will be possible initially in the west. With DCAPE values around 1300-1600 J/kg, the main hazard will likely be damaging wind gusts. Large hail cannot be ruled out, but atmospheric moisture content will be fairly high (especially in the central and eastern Panhandles), and the generally poor speed shear could result in poorly tilted storms. This would result in melting hail. Thunderstorms will produce heavy to torrential rainfall, though activity could be moving fast enough which would lower the concern for flash flooding. That said, urban areas and other flash flood prone areas could see localized flooding, but it is a low chance. These storms could continue overnight as well.

Clouds are currently expected to clear out fairly quickly after sunrise on Saturday. By then, an upper-level trough will be present across the Northwestern US with modest winds aloft across the southern High Plains. A surface trough will push east across the combined Panhandles and should settle in the central to eastern Panhandles by late afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the upper- 90s to 100s across the Panhandles during the day with Palo Duro Canyon potentially reaching up to 105 degrees. Will also have to watch portions of the eastern Panhandles where, if high enough dew points stick around, then the a heat index of around 105 degrees will be possible. Similar to Friday, a shortwave will move into the Panhandles Saturday evening. Enough mid-level moisture may be present to support some shower activity. However, forecast soundings in the evening and overnight hours show 'onion' thermodynamic profiles; in other words, it's nearly saturated in the mid-levels and low-levels with quite a bit of warm and dry air in between. These soundings support virga with any shower that develops.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The upper-level ridge will shift off to the northeast on Sunday, and once again a surface trough will push into the central to eastern Panhandles. Widespread 100+ degree temperatures are expected across the Panhandles once again. Subtle perturbations in the flow aloft could result in a few showers or thunderstorms in the central and eastern Panhandles late afternoon to evening. Unlike Saturday, we will have enough uncapped instability to support thunderstorms. The amount of instability could range from as low as 500 J/kg (if there's aggressive mixing) to as much as 1500-3000 J/kg (if enough moisture hangs around). Winds aloft are weak, 15-25 kts, which perhaps could support multicells. If a strong to severe thunderstorm can develop, the primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts owing to the high DCAPE values. Thunderstorm activity should wane by Midnight.

The upper-level ridge will shift into the Ohio Valley on Monday as the trough persists over the Western US. Expecting highs in the mid- 90s to low/mid-100s. Once again, a weak perturbation could encourage showers or thunderstorms across the Panhandles. Virga may result in strong wind gusts again.

The large-scale weather pattern is favored to remain stagnant into at least Wednesday. A slightly more impressive perturbation could work into the Panhandles on Tuesday, but may favor more of the western Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will move into Guymon and Dalhart tonight and linger into Friday morning before the clouds gradually lift and break up. Winds will turn southeasterly later in the afternoon, and we could see thunderstorms across the Panhandles in the late afternoon and evening, but mostly in the evening. These thunderstorms are likely to produce strong downdrafts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.