textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Isolated showers that may result in mostly gusty winds with little precipitation today and tonight. Will not rule out some pockets of thunder embedded in these showers.

- Mostly dry and breezy conditions expected today.

- Thursday night into the weekend will be the next return of showers and storms, and rainfall may be enough to result in some flooding concerns starting Friday evening and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Some elevated showers moved through last night and again this morning and there has been just enough mid level instability and lift with this wave moving across the Southern High Plains to get a few lightning strikes here and there. We have another batch of elevated showers moving in from NM and there could be some embedded thunder with them as well. Today's highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s across the areas, but still might have that cooler feel as we still have a bit of a tight surface gradient pushing breezy south winds across the Panhandles. That will relax tomorrow as we move under the main low level thermal ridge and cross barrier flow briefly weakens over the Rockies. The surface low is expected to track east across southern CO/KS and may allow for a few storms overnight in the OK Panhandle in it's wake.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Another warm day on Thursday, but it will also be accompanied by increased winds due to the next approaching weather system off the southern CA coast. Cross barrier flow will pick back up and another lee surface low is progged to set up in southeast CO, tightening up surface gradients so that south winds will be back in that 10-15 mph range but could be gusting up to 30 mph. Still warm southerly flow in place so highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. And given that the pocket of warmer air will now be more placed in southern CO/KS, would expect a slightly warmer day on Thursday for the OK Panhandle,while other areas will be similar to maybe a degree cooler than Wednesday.

Models continue to track the large closed low off southern CA to the northeast across central NV by Thursday evening. This will continue to draw up that warmer air we are forecasting for the Panhandles on Thursday, but it also is a more drier track, with most of the moisture being pulled into central and western NM. As we head into Friday that low that ejected to the northeast, may leave a weak cutoff low to track over southern CA in it's wake. However the high may take a more positive tilt, but will struggle to budge from a easterly track. This will put the Panhandles in a more questionable position as far as the weekend moisture and just how much we'll benefit from that moisture plume, as it continues to drive mostly over central and eastern NM. As we move through the weekend, we'll be highly focused on precipitation chances for the western Panhandles, maybe over the the Amarillo to Guymon line, with a sharp drop off potential to be mostly dry east of that line. And right along that line is still highly in question. That being said, several rounds of training showers and storms with ample PWAT's in the 1.00-1.30" range will be anchored over the western Panhandles for the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday is the best chance for precipitation to expand east as a pretty potent upper trough dives down over the central CONUS. If the stronger colder solution plays out we could be looking at overnight lows Monday night down around freezing for much of the Panhandles, except the southeast. But a lot can change from now through the weekend as to the strength and amplitude of this cold airmass.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with occasional virga showers that might pass over the sites. Lightning can't be ruled out with these showers, but not near enough confidence to have a PROB30 for thunder at this time. Overall, south winds 10-20kts gusting up to 30kts at times, will relax over 3z in the 5 to 10kt range and will become more west southwest. KGUY may even shift to a more northerly wind in the 12-15z time frame, as the surface low tracks across southern CO/KS.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.