textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Very high chance (>70%) for at least moderate winter impacts with a low chance (10-30%) of major impacts starting as early as Friday morning through Sunday, with snow covered roads becoming impassable in hardest hit areas. This includes major roads such as I-40.

- Increasing chances for at least some light icing along and south of Highway 60 from early Friday morning through Friday evening.

- Cold event with sub-zero wind chills starting late Friday through early Sunday. Max temperatures are expected to stay below freezing Friday through at least Sunday. There is a low chance for this to an extended event with the highs not getting above freezing until Wednesday (chances increase if higher snowfall totals are realized).

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Large scale weather system off the CA coast still expected to swing south over the Baja and then eject northeast across Texas on Saturday night into Sunday. This combined with massive cold airmass over the northern and central CONUS will be the focus of our winter weather concerns.

Tonight...East to southeast flow in the lower levels will advect moisture to the east and central Panhandles. This will result in a well saturated layer from the surface to about 2-3000 ft agl. The moisture may be dense enough to provide some light drizzle/freezing drizzle. What areas will see the icing versus just drizzle is still up in the air. The better chance to start off as just drizzle will be over the south, with the areas along the Canadian River Valley may be too cold and freezing drizzle becomes the primary concern. Will note that while the areas along and south of Highway 60 are the primary concern for an uptick in ice from freezing drizzle and/or sleet, the freezing drizzle potential could briefly make it's way into the northwest Panhandles. While most solutions do not favor this, the trend has been to gradually move the snow/mixed precip line a little further north with each update. That being said, there is some suggestion that the low level moisture will stay on the warmer side and just be drizzle through about 10AM. So the main message is that we're getting more confident in low level moisture enough for several hours of drizzle, but it could be several hours of freezing drizzle and the timing changeover from one precip to the other is still very much up in the air and will differ from location to location.

Friday afternoon we'll be awaiting the changeover to all snow, mainly across the south as the north will likely change over in that 9A-3P time frame, with the south being more noon to 6P, but the far southeast in Collingsworth County will need to be paid close attention, as there's some hinting prolonged periods of sleet Friday evening, that could lead to significant impacts if it doesn't change over to snow sooner. Now that we are to Friday evening the main precipitation type should be snow for most areas. The first round of moisture overrunning the strong cold air will be transported off the eastern Pacific over NM and into the Panhandles. This is where things get really challenging with snow amounts. We have abundant moisture from the surface up to 200mb, and we are certainly more favored for higher QPF values 0.1-0.3" over 6 hour periods along and south of I-40/Hwy60 line, but due to a stronger warm nose the snow to liquid ratios ( SLR's) will likely be in the 12:1-15:1 range. The issue is the challenge of getting both high QPF amounts over such a cold airmass, one of those two will have to be more accurate than the other. Overall, the setup is still possible, but there could be some gives that the model doesn't pick up on. Higher QPF could lead to warmer surface temperatures, or the models are just overdoing the QPF, and we get less. But given that surge of moisture off the Pacific, the potential for the cold airmass to be modified warmer would be the more favored scenario. In general, we wont be modifying temperatures, but will make note that temperatures might not be as cold as anticipated, and this could also play into wind chills staying in the Cold Advisory versus Extreme Cold range. Overall, given this first surge of moisture and that latest guidance favors the south and east with the most QPF and assuming lower SLR's due to the warm nose the south and east may pick up 1-3 inches of snow late Friday into early Saturday.

Saturday afternoon we'll have a break in the action as the first wave of moisture moves out of the area, and the main surge of moisture beings to move into our area. This will be coming in off the main low that's over the Baja and it will merge with an upper trough coming down from the Pacific Northwest. This is where the bulk of the moisture will come from and where we could even see some convective snow showers (Thundersnow). The system is a bit further south than previous models have suggested, but due to the vast swath of moisture associated, we still expect all areas to see snow accumulations. The south being moderate to heavy snow and the northeast now looking to be the heaviest. Current range update for the final event snow amounts will range in the 5-10 inch range, with the exception being the northwest in the 3-5 inch range. Lowest amounts in the northwest, south will be middle of the road, and northeast at the highest.

Very cold temperatures with the arctic airmass will still be the concern. And as a result wind chills could get down in the -5 to - 15F range Saturday morning and again Sunday morning. For this a cold Weather Advisory will be issued for the entire Panhandles. If confidence increases for some ares in the south to go colder, than we may need to upgrade to an Extreme Cold Warning down the line. The northwest doesn't look like it will fall to -20F so very low confidence in a warning for that area.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Sunday the system will be ending and we'll just have lingering cold air as the low clouds and light snow scour out of the Panhandles. Ands we'll be right back a cool/mild/dry northwest flow Monday through Thursday. Temperatures will fluctuate up and down as we transition from mild ridging to some weak back door cold fronts. Will note that Sunday and Monday's highs will need to be closely monitored once we have our snowpack and know what areas still have decent snow, so we can assume Sunday and Monday will have lower temperatures than the NBM provided, but depending on just how much snowpack occurs it could stretch out to Tuesday.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through about 10-12z at all TAF sites, with conditions falling to MVFR/IFR thereafter, and possibly LIFR mid to late in the TAF period. A winter storm is on the way and the low clouds are expected to start around 10z with possible freezing drizzle at KAMA from 12-15z. FZDZ may start earlier, so that may need to be amended if so. KDHT is now showing a light hint at -FZDZ as well from 15-18z then shifting over to snow, and KGUY isn't showing any concerns for -FZDZ at this time. We have started PROB30s a KGUY for the snow potential after 17z. Winds for the most part will be northeasterly in the 10-15kt range.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ001-006.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Sunday for TXZ001>020-317.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ002>005-007>010-012>015-017>020-317.

Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ011-016.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ001.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Sunday for OKZ001>003.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ002-003.