textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Elevated to low-end critical fire weather concerns remain present clear into next week.

- A slight cool off expected for Thursday, before warmer temperatures return for Friday and Saturday.

- Hints at a pattern change next week that bring wetter weather to the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Latest observations have seen the much warmer and drier air push into the Panhandles at the lower-levels with areas already in the upper mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Relative humidity values have also taken a drop with multiple locations now in the single digits with a few locations close to 5%. As for the winds, latest observations have seen winds starting to decline as the expected surface low is already sinking into the Northern Panhandles. This low is expected to keep descending into the Panhandles over course of the remaining afternoon and evening, with most locations likely to see winds under 10 mph by sunset. In the mean time, potential does still exist for elevated to low-end critical fire weather to be present, especially across the Southern and Western Panhandles where winds are still capable of gusting to 30 mph. At this time, that area will remain under a Red Flag Warning until 7 PM tonight when most winds are expected to fully quiet down.

As for Wednesday, dry weather still persist for the day. However, slightly cooler temperatures will look to be present thanks a much weaker advection of warm and dry air at the lower-levels. This weaker advection will look to keep afternoon high temperatures closer to mid to upper 70s for most locations with relative humidity values more in the teens to 20s. Fire weather concern will still be present for the day, but will likely be elevated at best thanks to a lack of winds. Otherwise, focus begins to turn towards a weak system set to brush the Northern Panhandles late that night. While, this system is not expected to bring anything outside a virga shower or two in the far Northeast, the associated cold front will help bring down temperatures for Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Models continue to have a short-wave trough bring a cold frontal passage across late Wednesday into early Thursday that will give us a brief cool down Thursday. At this time, look for afternoon highs to be mostly in the 60s to low 70s. Unfortunately this cool off is not meant to last long with most models seeing us warm right back in the upper 70s to low 80s by Saturday. One silver lining to this passage is that it does initiate a series of weak surfaces lows to move across the Panhandles over the following days. While no precipitation is likely to follow with these lows, they will help to decouple us from the upper-level jet, which will help regulate our winds during the afternoon hours. This lack of winds will aid in keep fire weather concerns a little more in check for this extend dry period, with our culprits more likely to be low RH values and present fuel status. This trend looks to continue Sunday as models look to see another weak cold front push across and cool off temperatures for next Monday. This cool off looks to have a bit more staying power as model are starting to trend towards a pattern shift that would see a new upper-level low developing and then moving into the Southwestern United States. While there is still a lot of uncertainty on the progression of this low, hints of some possible wetter weather have begun make their way into the models for the middle and end of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Dry weather has continue to hold over the Panhandles this afternoon with only some scatter high cloud decks present. Winds at KAMA and KDHT have been a bit breezy at the surface, but will likely weaken later this evening once the expected surface low moves in. From there the two terminals may have to contend with some low-level wind shear, but impacts from this are likely to be minor. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001-006-011- 012-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001.