textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

-Rain and thunderstorm chances increase for all of the Panhandles by mid week, which may also lead to some flooding concerns as well.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

As of the latest 04Z observations, watching several outflow boundaries traverse the Panhandles, generally from west to east. These outflow boundaries should also progress the main cold front, eventually south of the Texas Panhandle by mid morning on Sunday. This should keep any initial convection along the front itself well south of the region. Latest 00-03Z hi-res model data does show a second area of established convection upstream of the Panhandles in the central Rockies move southeast into the northwestern Panhandles. Latest NBM illustrates outflow boundaries from this second area of convection reaches the southern TX Panhandle, but not much rain looks to reach the I-40 corridor by Sunday night as lapse rates and overall wind shear remains rather anemic the further south in the TX Panhandle you go. High temperatures on Sunday range from the lower 80s in the NW Panhandles through lower to mid 90s in the far SE Texas Panhandle.

Monday could be more on the quiet side overall with our weather pattern for most of the day. A mid level disturbance under a developing H500 ridge into the southern High Plains could see a shower or storm, favoring the southern Texas Panhandle, especially by Monday night. High temperatures on Monday will see the first of many days below average for high temperatures for many locations, over the next several days to follow. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to lower and mid 80s for the far SE TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Latest global model and numerical guidance are illustrating a H500 ridge developing with its extent into the central Plains, with a series of mid level disturbances traversing the central Rockies from WSW to ENE. Data also shows a sub-tropical tie to the main moisture transport going through the middle of the coming week with these disturbances. Coupled with daytime heating, we could see several chances of showers and storms. With PWAT values in the 99th percentile and quite limited overall steering flow, training storms with flooding potential will be watched closely as we go mid to later this week. Overall high temperatures in the long term forecast period will remain below average before returning to near average by the first half of the coming weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the TAF period at all TAF sites, but we may have some low clouds and storms move in toward the end of the TAF period. Winds in general will be out of the northwest, and will eventually transition more northeasterly 5 to 15 kts. Towards the tail end of the TAF period after about 8z we may have MVFR/IFR cigs due to low clouds and maybe even some shower activity.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.