textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Very low end critical fire weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon which will allow for wildfire starts and spread.

- Thunderstorms may occur today, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday for mainly the eastern Panhandles and a few storms may be strong to severe.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will stick around through Friday, mainly in western portions of the combined Panhandles.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A line of showers and severe thunderstorms continues to slowly move east across Wheeler, Collingsworth, and Donley counties. The strongest storms are now located across Donley and Collingsworth counties and have a history of producing damaging wind gusts upwards of 60-70 mph and could also be producing large hail. As we lose daytime heating, the storms should weaken as instability decreases. Low end critical fire weather is still ongoing across portions of the area due to breezy winds and dry conditions. The Red Flag Warning will continue through 9 PM due to these conditions. Minor edits were made to the ongoing forecast through this evening due to the ongoing storms.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

After this afternoon's record heat, slight changes will be coming with a cold front tomorrow. Model guidance has been bringing the front in slower and less potent, ultimately keeping afternoon highs in the 80s across the area for Tue. The far southeast Texas Panhandle may be the exception with some lower 90s.

Later this afternoon into evening there is s light chance for some thunderstorms to fire off of a convergence boundary in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Main concerns with any isolated storms will be strong to damaging winds and lightning. Dry lower levels will be causing any rain to evaporate leading to the wind threat while minimizing the chances for anyone in the southeast Panhandle to even measure rain.

Ahead of the front tomorrow there will be a surface trough providing a convergence boundary over the southeastern combined Panhandles once again. Models at this time do not have a tight enough Td gradient to be classified as a true dryline at this time. Going into the evening hours around 03Z Wed, the NAM does provide a true dryline with a triple point almost in the center of the CWA. The eastern Panhandles and south of the cold front will have to be watched for a severe potential. Otherwise the better surface moisture will be displaced further east out of the FA with much of the Panhandles being completely dry.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

There is quite a bit of uncertainty for Wed. To include afternoon temperatures and precipitation chances. The Panhandles will be post frontal for a bit on Wed with winds quickly returning to the southwest and H85 temperatures quickly rebounding going into the afternoon. At the same time increasing upper level cloud cover from an upper level trough moving across could potentially hold temperatures back despite the rebounding H85 temperatures. Moisture with this upper level system may even produce some sprinkles to very light rain across much of the combined Panhandles early in the day. Thunderstorm chances in the eastern combined Panhandles do exist later in the day, but will highly depend on the timing of the upper level system and best dynamics along the leading edge of the trough. If the system moves through too quickly, even the eastern combined Panhandles may get dry slotted. Will have to take into consideration of the position of a dryline on the day of for potential severe chances as well. Wed could be one of those days where the western Panhandles may have critical fire weather condition, while the eastern Panhandles have severe thunderstorm chances, with the exact cutoff between the two weather types being unclear at this time.

Thursday into Friday, afternoon highs return to the 80s with elevated to critical fire weather conditions staying present. This should be the last of the heat hoorah before the ridge completely breaks down for a time. Friday night another cold front heads into the area. But first, a similar spring time set up with the eastern Panhandles possibly under the gun for severe storms once again. The Panhandles will be under a very positively tilted trough, with better chances for moisture further east in OK as the FA may very well get dryslotted.

Saturday and Sunday behind a cold front, conditions look to moderate a bit with afternoon highs mainly in the 70s expected. Lows on Sunday morning may even drop to around 32 in the northwestern Panhandles. Winds are only expected to be slightly breezy with north winds post front on Saturday and southerly winds on Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected with this TAF cycle. Winds will stay out of the south to southwest overnight with some gusts upwards of 20-25 kts, particularly at KAMA. Winds beyond 12-15z are tricky, as they will depend upon on far south a cold front gets during the day. Right now, KGUY has the highest confidence in northerly winds behind the front and KDHT may also end up on the north side of the cold front. Winds behind the front could gust upwards of 20-30 kts. Mid to high clouds will continue to move in across the Panhandles.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>010-014- 015-020.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.