textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

-Residual rain showers on Friday, mainly for the far southern Texas Panhandle.

-Temperatures below average on Friday with highs in the 50s/60s and lows Friday night down into the 40s for many locations.

-Dry conditions and above average temperature return by next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Latest 04Z obs aloft shows the backside of a H500 positive tilted trough, the remnants of the main tropical system, to continue to provide broad lift for isolated to scattered showers. More overcast skies and increased clouds on the backside of the surface cold front as well continues to fill in across the Panhandles as well. This will result in cooler temperatures for Friday overall, keeping temperatures well below average. Latest MOS NAM/GFS/ECMWF and overall SHREF probabilities (70-95% chance) shows the southern TX Panhandle with highs at or below 60 degrees for Friday. Overall highs for Friday will range from the upper 50s in the southern TX Panhandle, including Amarillo, to upper 60s in the Oklahoma Panhandle where breaks in the clouds should come later in the afternoon where temperatures could moderate. Rain chances throughout the day on Friday will decrease from north to south as the main system finally begins to exit the region. By Friday night, low temperatures will feature some of the coolest temperatures of the season with some areas in the northern Panhandles dropping into the lower 40s with some upper 40s for the southern TX Panhandle in some locations. Light and variable winds to start the day on Saturday will eventually veer back to southerly. This will advect some warmer temperatures back into the region with highs on Saturday ranging well into the 70s for all of the Panhandles with dry conditions returning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Dry conditions will be dominant over the long term forecast period. With overall H500 high pressure over most of the SW CONUS extending into the southern High Plains, warm and dry conditions are expected to continue. Some global model data shows a weak mid level wave of low pressure traversing the central Rockies with precipitation, but most of that activity weakens quite a bit before reaching the Panhandles at this time, but one to watch over the next few days. Highs will be above average second half of the coming weekend into the first full week of October.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs are at all TAF sites to start the 06Z TAF period. These cigs will continue throughout most of the TAF period, before a potential return to VFR, especially at KGUY/KDHT closer to the end of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the north at 5-15 kts, becoming more light and variable by the end of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.