textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

-Strong to severe thunderstorms possible later today in the SE TX Panhandle with large hail and damaging winds possible.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Wednesday for the eastern combined Panhandles with large hail and damaging winds possible.

-Thunderstorms possible for the SE TX Panhandle on Friday

-Watching for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for the western Panhandles Wednesday through Friday

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Latest 17Z observations shows the cold front continuing to move at a steady pace south through the Texas Panhandle. In the wake of the front, temperatures are dropping into the 60s as of the latest obs with surface winds shifting to northerly. Moreover, the cold front should displace the best LL moisture out ahead as it moves south. If the cold front clears through the Panhandles by this afternoon, LL instability could be more limited. But latest guidance does continue to show the far SE Texas Panhandle in a corridor ahead of the from of mid 50s Td values with good diurnal heating. With several surface features in the vicinity with aided H500 lift from a mid level perturbation moving east across eastern NM, we could see a few thunderstorms develop across the SE TX Panhandle from mid afternoon into the evening hours. With effective shear around 20-25 kts and the most aggressive MUCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg, areas along and ahead of the main cold front could see some strong to severe thunderstorms with hail as big as 1.5" and 60 mph gusts with the most robust updrafts. Conditions will improve between 03-05Z.

Going into Wednesday, a decaying H300 jet streak out ahead of the main H500 perturbation just west of the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon will move into the Panhandles. We will have to contend with some cloud cover which could make surface based instability a bit delayed. However, some of the most aggressive model data sets has a frontal boundary backing into the SE Texas Panhandle by 18-22Z Wednesday afternoon. Coupled with allocated H700 +theta-e advection into the eastern Panhandles out ahead of a progressing dryline eastward, we could see strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening for the eastern Panhandles off the Caprock. If all the components from the upper level jet support, surface boundaries, backing winds, and diurnally driven heating with sufficient instability, we could see 2000-2500 J/kg on instability along with around 30-40 kts of effective shear in the most aggressive model outputs shows (NAM, CMC, RAP). With converging set up, even can argue a rough triple point set up in play where even a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Most of the model datasets however illustrate a more progressive dryline, which results in quick thunderstorms development in the western OK/eastern TX Panhandle stateline before quickly moving east into Oklahoma, with just some elevated low topped non-severe convection in the east. Will watch trends very closely over the next 12-24 hours with updates to the forecast. Further west across the far western combined Panhandles, as skies will clear out late afternoon in this vicinity, we could see a window of some fire weather conditions that will have to be watched closely as well, along with breezy westerly winds. High temperatures on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front will range from the upper 70s in the northern Panhandles to mid and upper 80s for the southern TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A dry forecast for most of the Panhandles throughout the long term forecast period. Perhaps some moisture will return for the eastern Panhandles Friday into Friday night, but overall moisture return looks quite scant. But nonetheless, something to watch in the extended forecast. Otherwise, dry with above average temperatures Thursday and Friday before a cold front moves through the region Friday night bringing temperatures back down to near average values for the weekend with slightly above average temperatures going into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the north/northeast at 15-25 kts, diminishing to 5-15 kts past 00Z. Winds will then shift to south/southwesterly towards the end of the TAF period at 10-20 kts, with some higher gusts at times. Clouds will be present, especially past 06Z, but VFR conditions should prevail.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.