textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday evening into Friday morning. A few storms may become strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail, lightning, and heavy rain.

- Thunderstorms will be possible across various portions of the Panhandles Saturday, Sunday night, Monday night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday night.

- Widespread upper-90s to mid-100 degree temperatures return to the Panhandles on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a seasonably strong jet stream extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Midwest and Ohio Valley region, with a seasonably strong low pressure system in the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, there is a ridge in place extending from the southern High Plains northwestward toward the West Coast. Surface observations over the past 12 hours show that a weakening cold front has now worked into the northern Panhandles, though it's currently so weak that it's hard to discern. Upstream surface observations show a stronger cold front is currently (as of 9 PM) in Kansas/Nebraska and quickly working southward toward the Panhandles. Expect winds to strengthen through the night as a surface low pushes southeast into Lubbock. Although the low will be weakening, a surface high pressure will be moving from the Northwestern US into the Plains which will steepen the surface pressure gradient across the Panhandles. Expecting sustained winds between 20 to 30 mph, though will not be surprised if there's some 30-35 mph sustained winds in the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Wind gusts will likely stay below 50 mph, but we could see wind gusts get near 50 mph in the southwestern Texas Panhandle. The strongest winds should occur from 6 AM to around 3 PM. Meanwhile, light rain will be possible along and after the front.

A partly to mostly cloud sky is expected throughout Thursday as cold air advection continues into the Panhandles. This will likely cause the warmest temperatures to occur in the morning hours for portions of the southern and central Panhandles. Given these factors, the NBM continues to be too warm and much warmer than the majority of guidance (though closer than yesterday); will again lower Thursday's high temperatures.

A subtle, weak 700mb shortwave is expected to be present over northwest Texas Thursday afternoon. Although there are varying ideas among model guidance, some forcing may move into the southeastern Texas Panhandle in the late afternoon hours. Afternoon CAM and mesoscale model forecast soundings in the afternoon show saturated and stable low-levels with an inversion up to 1km AGL. Earlier in the afternoon shows large capped elevated instability, but they suggest that this cap should weaken through the afternoon and evening. We should see elevated thunderstorms develop in northwestern Texas into the southeastern Texas Panhandle as early as the late afternoon hours, but more likely in the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings during this time show mostly uncapped, large instability profiles (Lifted Index between -8 to - 10) with MUCAPE ranging from 2000-3500 J/kg, potentially higher. Overall winds aloft are expected to be weak, but directional shear will be able to slightly compensate. Regardless, it should be reasonable to expect effective wind shear values between 15 kts to 30 kts, though there is potential to see as much as 35 kts. These conditions combine to suggest quickly develop multicell thunderstorms that will primarily produce large hail, heavy rain, and plentiful lightning. Cannot rule out an elevated transient supercell if the higher shear comes to fruition. Hail between 1.5" to 2" in diameter will be possible with any severe thunderstorm, though the higher end of that range will be more likely with a supercell (should one develop).

There's still uncertainty about when the thunderstorms start and when they'll end, but it does look likely that the thunderstorm activity will favor the eastern half of the combined Panhandles.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing after sunrise of Friday morning, but should be on the decline. Clouds will likely linger through the morning but begin to break apart in the afternoon.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The large-scale pattern to begin Saturday should consist of a ridge over the Baja California peninsula, a shortwave trough in the Western US, and general troughiness over the Northeastern US. Meanwhile, warm and moist air will be advecting into the Panhandles. Expecting high temperatures to be in the 90s across the area. A perturbation in the zonal flow aloft will clip the northern Panhandles later in the afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will be possible for the Oklahoma Panhandle primarily, but barring a southward trend, most of the activity should be in Kansas and Colorado.

Temperatures will warm well into the 90s and 100s on Sunday as the shortwave trough progresses eastward but flattens further. There will be at least some dry air advection at the surface and at 700mb which will limit thunderstorm potential through the daytime hours of Sunday. There are indications that a cold front will move into the northeastern Panhandles in the afternoon which could throw a wrench in the high temperature forecast in that area. Thunderstorm chances could increase Sunday night when more favorable mid-level moisture could work into the area along with subtle mid-level forcing.

From Monday through the end of the long-term period, deterministic and ensemble guidance favors a ridge will develop over the Southwestern US with a trough over eastern Canada or the Great Lakes. This would result in northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles with embedded shortwaves rounding the ridge. Early indications are that enough moisture should be present for a threat for thunderstorms on a daily (or, more likely given the pattern, nightly) basis. Cannot rule out strong to severe thunderstorms in such a pattern, but won't get into details at this range.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A cold front will move in from the north later tonight and winds will become breezy with gusts between 30-40 kts through the morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into all terminals later tonight. These conditions are favored to persist through Thursday for Amarillo, but should break up for Dalhart and Guymon during the day. Some rain showers will be possible along with the front, but the chances are too low to include in the TAFs for now.

Vanden Bosch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.