textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Very hot temperatures will continue through Thursday.

- Thunderstorms will be possible tonight, tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, and potentially Friday.

- Triple digit heat may return early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A ridge is still set up over the region, though today it will shift very slightly south. Mid- to upper-level winds will shift to southwesterly or northwesterly, and a weak mid-level shortwave is expected to move into northeastern New Mexico and into southwest Kansas later this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are favored to develop on the high terrain in New Mexico this afternoon, but this activity may struggle to sustain off the higher terrain. It may not be until the weak shortwave moves in that the thunderstorms will be able to move off the high terrain and into the western/northwestern combined Panhandles. We could see some gusty winds come out of this activity in the evening when there's a fairly weak nocturnal inversion, and moderate to heavy rain will be possible with a sustained thunderstorm. Rain showers should gradually become the more predominate mode as the night goes on.

Yet another very hot day is expected tomorrow as the upper-level ridge is likely to settle slightly further west. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of the eastern Panhandles, Hutchinson county, and Palo Duro Canyon, as heat index values are favored to reach 105 degrees or slightly higher. One possible failure mode is if the morning debris clouds persist longer than expected. However, given that the winds aloft will be stronger than they are today, clouds should be able to move out more swiftly.

Winds aloft will be northwesterly by the late afternoon/evening, and a shortwave will move in from Colorado. Expecting thunderstorms to initiate in Colorado/New Mexico in the afternoon and move into the Panhandles in the late afternoon and through the night. There is some question about moisture content because some guidance has the dew points mixing out into the 50s, while some others are more in the mid-50s to low-60s. This causes a fairly big discrepancy in the amount of instability, ranging from MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg to 1000-2000 J/kg. In any case, DCAPE will be significant, ranging from 1600 to 1800 J/kg. There will be very strong directional shear which will be able to compensate for the relatively weak winds aloft; effective shear values look to be in the 20-30 kt range. This should be enough for some modest storm organization. Given all these factors, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the primary hazard. Large hail looks very unlikely given a fairly moist atmospheric profile above the mixed layer (PWATs around 1.2" to 1.4") and relatively warm temperatures aloft (500mb temperatures around -3C to -5C). Cannot rule out small hail if instability ends up being on the higher-end of the previously mentioned range. Thunderstorms will likely continue through much of the night, though the severe threat should be confined to the evening hours.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The upper-level ridge will shift west on Friday and upper-level winds will continue to be northwesterly, shifting toward north- northwesterly Friday night. A weak cold front is expected to move in throughout the day which will likely (barely) break the week-and-a- half streak of 100+ degree highs for most; highs are still forecast to be in the mid- to upper-90s across much of the area. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the Panhandles later in the day. However, will have to watch what happens with the front; some guidance stalls it out in the southern Texas Panhandle, while others push the front well off to the south by the late afternoon. If the front stalls out, thunderstorms will be possible again across the Panhandles but particularly where the front stalls. If the front keeps moving south, then the northern Panhandles would most likely stay dry while the southern Texas Panhandle has a small window of opportunity for thunderstorms.

The weather for this weekend should be dry and seasonable(!!). For Saturday, we will likely be on the back side of a departing shortwave (negative vorticity advection), while the atmosphere will get gradually drier. Sunday, heights aloft will begin to rise as the ridge over the Southwestern US begins to build back to the east and we will start to see temperatures warm again from Sunday and into early next week. However, with the center of the ridge likely to stay off to our west, we shouldn't see the same very hot temperatures that we have been seeing over the past week and a half.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at Dalhart and Guymon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Amendments will be needed if confidence increases. Any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing strong downdrafts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ003-007-013-018.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ004-005-008>010-014- 015-019-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ002.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ003.