textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions still expected this afternoon, south of the semi-stationary front.

- Sunday, critical fire weather conditions are expected again with a 20-50 percent chance of needing wind headlines across the central to western combined Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Today, a mid to upper level trough is exiting the Rockies and entering the central to northern Great Plains. The base of this trough is progged to move through tonight bringing with it a weak cold front passage with northwest to northerly winds around 10 to 15 mph. This front has already come into the northern combined Panhandles where it has stalled. Going into the later part of the afternoon the front may back up a bit still impacting conditions across the central to eastern OK Panhandle. Meaning critical fire weather conditions that are expected across much of the area may still materialize in the central to eastern OK Panhandle.

An H7 to surface low pressure system is moving across the northern combined Panhandles. It is on the south side of this leeside low that where H7 winds will be reaching near 40 kts. With the warm temperatures to the south higher gust are expected, up to 40 to 45 mph. With southwest to westerly downsloping winds much lower Tds are moving in dropping RH values well below 10 percent.

Tonight, the front will push south, winds will decrease, and Tds will increase slightly allowing for RH values to recover to the 40 to 60 percent range. The front will allow afternoon highs for Friday to be held back in the upper 70s to lower 80s instead of the upper 80s and lower 90s expected today. Under the heat of the day and still somewhat low Tds RH values are still expected to fall to near 8 percent, mainly in the west. Therefore, expecting some RH driven elevated fire weather conditions. Winds are expected to stay relatively light and northerly through most of the day tomorrow with winds turning back to the SE then S later in the evening and starting to pick back up to around 15 mph, maybe higher. As the winds return to the southeast a dryline is progged to back into the area allowing for much of the combined Panhandles to see RH recoveries near 80-100 percent.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Saturday afternoon, temperatures are expected to return to near 90 in the southeast TX Panhandle with the northwest still staying behind in the upper 70s in the far western OK Panhandle. RH values once again expected to be as low as 8 percent in the southwest TX Panhandle to near 25 percent in the far eastern OK Panhandle while the dryline mixes east out of the area. Winds are expected to remain relatively light to only having elevated fire weather for Saturday.

Winds aloft remain quasi-zonal through Saturday. Then an upper level trough digging over the Great Basin Region puts the FA under southwesterly flow and increasing winds aloft for Sunday. An H5 jet upwards of 70 kts is progged to reach from SE AZ up through NM into the Panhandles. The Panhandles have a chance to fall under the right exit region allowing some subsidence to bring stronger winds to the surface. Based on the NBM probabilities the central to western Panhandles have a 20 to 50 percent chance to see wind gusts exceed 60 mph. This will be the next day to watch for a particularly high end fire weather day with winds exceeding 58 mph combined with dry fuels and RH values in the 10 to 15 percent range.

The only region of the combined Panhandles to see any PoPs through Tuesday will be the far northeast on Sat night and the OK Panhandle on Sunday night. Confidence remains low on any meaningful precipitation in the OK Panhandle, as models do depict the best rain chances to the north in KS. Not to get hopes up the dry streak may come to an end going into Wednesday. The NBM is giving some widespread 30 to 40 PoPs across the FA Wed night. However, it is still a ways out and anything can change with this persistence the FA has seen with past systems ending up taking a less than favorable track to bring precipitation this winter/spring.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A frontal boundary may hold winds out of the north for KDHT and KGUY. However, KAMA should see some strong winds out of the west until this front comes through later tonight. Ahead of the front, especially for KAMA winds are expected to be westerly around 25 kts gusting to 39 kts. There is a low chance that gusts may exceed 40 kts for KAMA.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Friday and Saturday with RH values falling well below 15 percent again. Winds should stay below 15 mph limiting concerns for critical until Sunday. Sunday, an upper level system will provide strong winds aloft for potentially high wind gusts as well as create conditions for strong sustained winds at the surface. Will need to continue monitoring model trends into the weekend as there currently remains a 20 to 50 percent chance for gusts to reach 60 mph in the central to western combined Panhandles with RH values as low as 10 percent.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.