textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Shower and embedded thunderstorms chances are present Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.

- A secondary cold front Wednesday is expected to bring near to below freezing temperatures Thursday morning.

- Temperatures will be quick to rebound for the end of the week with afternoon highs possibly in the low 90s by Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

As of late tonight, both observations stations and radar are depicting the first of our two cold front making its way into the Oklahoma Panhandles with some weak showers currently following it in. At this time these showers are not expected to produce much with CAMs only seeing sprinkles to light rain at best. These showers are expected to give way as the front move in through the overnight resulting in some breezy to gusty northerly winds for the Panhandles. Cooler temperatures will then look to follow for day with afternoon highs in the 50s to 60s for the north with the far south still hanging on to the 70s. It is also by this time that latest CAM agreement sees an incoming short-wave push in ahead of the next upper-level trough. This short-waves arrival will be the start of our potential for showers and embedded thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening before the trough fully moves in later that night. Unfortunately, present CAMs have once again been on a downwards trend for our showers activity with most condensing activity to our far northwest.

As we move into Wednesday, shower activity continues to hold for the north. However, this activity may have a better potential to spread further south as move into the afternoon thanks in part to a secondary wave and front moving in alongside a decent cold air mass. From here activity will get a little more interesting, especially up north, as this potent air mass will start decrease temperatures to near freezing as we approach the overnight hours. While confidence is very low to the possibility, any linger showers in our far northwest may see a brief period where they transition to snow. Regardless, the present trend with these showers, much like we have seen the last couple of chances, has been on the decline when it comes to precipitation amounts. As it stands, latest model runs have seen our highest amounts hold in the far northwest at only around 0.25 to 0.5 with amounts quickly dropping to a couple hundredths as you go further south and east.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Thursday morning continues to trend as our coldest morning with most models seeing the secondary front forcing a potent cold air mass into the Panhandles. Currently latest models do see good potential for a majority of the Panhandles to be near or at freezing with the far north having the potential to be well below freezing the by time the sun rises. What may hinder this however, will be if there is any linger showers or heavy cloud cover that morning as the linger moisture can keep us a bit more temperate. Still it has been decided to issue a Freeze Watch for the far northwest as there is high confidence in the models for that area clearing our and achieving below freezing temperatures. Beyond the cold morning, the Panhandles will look to be once again on the dry and warm trend with afternoon highs Thursday quickly jumping into the 70s. This trend will look to hold through Saturday with potential for highs to reach into the low 90s that afternoon. However, more activity could look to follow Sunday as model agreement sees another upper-level trough push into West Texas. Unfortunately, there is still too much uncertainty to say much more as impacts from a system like this will be highly dependent on its final placement of low as it moves in.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

As of late tonight latest radar and ground observations where seeing the cold front make its way into Panhandles with KGUY looking to already be behind the front. There has been some weak shower activity present with the front's passage, but impacts to the terminals remains unlikely. Instead focus has been on the winds as current CAMs are still expecting them to pick up behind the front with potential to see gusts at the surface around 20 to 30kt at times. As for Tuesday afternoon, most model trends have been on decline when it comes to our expected showers with activity looking to be mostly condensed to our far northwest. Given this have only made PROB30 mentions at KGUY where confidence is a little higher.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for TXZ001>003-006.

OK...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for OKZ001-002.