textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

-There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northwest. Lightning and gusty winds will be the primary hazards.

-Warm to hot temperatures continue with increasing evening thunderstorm chances Wed night into Fri night. A marginal risk for severe storms exist Wed, mainly for a damaging wind threat.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A mid to upper level trough is progged to continue digging into the Central to Northern Great plains today. This will transition the flow aloft to northwesterly to northerly with perturbations potentially sparking off some isolated to potentially scattered shower and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northwestern combined Panhandles. The trough is also expected to bring in a cold front, at least into the northern combined Panhandles as it is expected to stall around the Canadian River Valley. The far northwestern FA may even see afternoon highs held back in the upper 80s, 90s across the rest of the area north of the Canadian River Valley. The southern FA is still expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. A heat advisory will be needed for the canyon floor this afternoon. Yesterday, the canyon floor was only three degrees warmer than the airport at Amarillo. This was thanks to the winds being southwesterly and on the breezy side, allowing for heat to be dispersed from the floor. Today, lighter winds on the south side of the frontal boundary are expected to be in the 10 to 15 mph range, which should allow the floor to warm at least 5 degrees higher than Amarillo. The last time a front came into the area compressional heating allowed temperatures to over perform across the southern TX Panhandle. Will need to keep an eye on that today as well as the forecast may be a couple degrees low for the max temperature reached.

This system will also bring a slight chance to chance PoPs to the northwestern combined Panhandles. The RRFS has scattered storms move into the northwestern Panhandles and strengthen over Cimarron, Dallam, Sherman, and Texas Counties after dark. However, the storms quickly fall apart before reaching the central Panhandles as they move southeast under the northwesterly flow aloft. Some of the newer runs of the HRRR are quite similar, but with more isolated stuff further east and south. Have a 30 PoP around the counties mentioned from the RRFS while the rest of the northern combined Panhandles have a 10 to 15 PoP. Severe storms are not anticipated but would not rule out some strong wind gusts.

Tomorrow, areas that saw some cooler temps in the lower 90s to even upper 80s are expected to return to the upper 90s and potentially 100, as the frontal boundary moves out. Surface winds are expected to return to the southwest then south across the entire combined Panhandles. Temperatures are expected to warm once again to at least the upper 90s across the board. With northwesterly flow aloft the combined Panhandles get another shot at precip, mainly north of the HWY60 corridor where PoPs range from 30 to 50. Along and south of the HWY60 corridor a slight chance PoP does exist at this time. A marginal risk for severe storms does exist with the main hazard being damaging straightline winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Northwest flow aloft is expected to stay until Friday when the H5 high builds back into the area and shifts the flow aloft to a weak easterly flow going into the weekend. Chance PoPs remain across much of the combined Panhandles both Thu night and again Fri until the flow aloft completely shifts. High temperatures continue in the mid to upper 90s with areas off the caprock reaching the 100-105 range through Friday. PoPs are progged to drop off again going into the weekend under the building high pressure, also leading to more widespread 100s going into Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail over all sites for the next 24 hours. A chance for thunderstorms still exist this evening, but mainly for KDHT. Much lower chances are expected for KAMA and KGUY. Winds will be strong behind the cold front for KGUY AND KDHT today, but winds will eventually die down towards the late afternoon once the front stalls and eventually retreats northward. Winds will simply be breezy from the southwest all afternoon for KAMA and die down after sunset.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.