textproduct: Amarillo
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
- Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the weekend favoring the southern Panhandles.
- Triple-digit temperatures return next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
Weak upper low now centered roughly between AMA and LUB will continue to drift west through the weekend as it weakens. Vorticity associated with the low is forecast to rotate up through the Texas Panhandle this aftn and eve, with weaker vort on Sunday. Moisture is forecast to increase slightly from Friday and forecast soundings appear slightly more favorable in some CAMs while the GFS looks more similar to what occurred Friday. Given everything, believe a slight uptick in coverage of showers and storms will occur today and am showing a broadbrush 30 POP favoring the area near and south of Highway 60. CAPE is skinny and pretty limited with even the more agressive models showing only 400-800 j/kg to work with and little wind shear. SPC general thunder with no severe probs shown seems reasonable. There is a marginal threat for heavy rainfall per WPC across the extreme southern TX Panhandle and given very localized rainfall above 1.5 inches near Memphis today, this seems reasonable. POPs will be slightly lower on Sunday when only isolated convection is anticipated. Temperatures will be within a degree or two of climatology.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
H5 heights will increase through early next week as the low retrogrades and the high builds in from the NW. H5 heights are forecast to reach 596 DM by Tue. This of course means hotter temperatures once again and widespread triple digit highs are forecast as early as Tuesday. Hottest temps will occur late in the week as low level winds back more SSW from SSE earlier in the week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected mainly across the southern TX Panhandle. AMA has best chance of seeing impacts and will carry a prob30 there. Outside this activity, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None. OK...None.
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