textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms each day.

- Localized flash flooding is also possible with thunderstorms this weekend, favoring the northwest combined Panhandles.

- Drier and hotter conditions look to return next week with widespread temperatures at or above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Latest 16Z obs in the mid levels shows 2 notable perturbations within the western periphery of the main anti-cyclonic feature. The first is moving ENE across western NM and the second in moving NNW just past the Rio Grande River. Main areas of lift out ahead of both perturbations, coupled with convective temps of mid to upper 90s to likely be achieved, areas of showers and thunderstorms along the eastern NM Plains expanding east into the western Panhandles is expected. Some of the latest CAM and hi-res data also are picking up on a relatively weak sfc convergence boundary setting up just along and north of the Canadian River from roughly Adrian to Channing to Dumas to Waka. This secondary area of convergence could also generate some storms during peak heating of the day. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe in intensity, especially early on. Notable up-drafts in a rather anemic effective shear environment that is more discrete could support some large hail up to 1-1.25", especially for the western Panhandles. As we continue into the evening hours, damaging wind threat will be more probable as multi-cell storm mode and/or forward propagating outflow/cold pools should be the main storm mode. Along with severe wind and hail hazards, slow moving and/or training storms in a PWAT environment of 75-99th percentile, cannot rule out localized flash flooding. Residual showers and low topped storms could trickle into the early portions of the overnight period before conditions improve. High temperatures this afternoon likely to still range from the mid 90s to 105 in PDC, where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon.

Potential rinse and repeat four Sunday, favoring the northern Panhandles once again for diurnally driven shower and storms, where we cannot rule out a strong to severe storms. But this time, the activity High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 80s in the NW to upper 90s to near 100 in the SE.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Not much of an exact accord between the latest global model guidance for the long term forecast period. The slight majority has the main H500 high and its center building over the Panhandles by mid week drying out. Potential for other mid level disturbances grazing the northern Panhandles with rain chances towards the end of the forecast period, but confidence remain low for rain chances at this time. High temperatures continue to be above average as we go past mid August.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF period. The only exception could be at KGUY with PROB30 group just before 06Z for TSRA potential where erratic winds from storms are possible. Could also see that just after 00Z for KDHT, but confidence not high enough to include in forecast. AMD are possible early on in TAF period. Winds will be variable at 5-10 kts with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.