textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Breezy and dry conditions will support elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Outdoor burning and activities that cause open sparks or flames are discouraged.

- 10-20% chances will exist for light showers across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. Very little rainfall is expected if activity develops in the area.

- We are monitoring potential for thunderstorm development across the eastern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. Chances are low, but storms could be impactful if they develop.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Upper level ridging is currently analyzed to our west, which is progged to translate across the Rockies through the day, helping us warm into the 70s and low 80s. Models also show a broad low- amplitude trough impinging upon the Southern Great Plains later this afternoon - evening as well, with southerly low to mid- level winds aiding modest moisture advection to the High Plains and Big Country of west Texas. At the very least, this will serve to reduce the fire weather threat for much of the area. The northern and central Panhandles will unfortunately still be dry and breezy enough for at least elevated fire weather conditions.

South of the I-40 corridor, the combination of subtle upper level lift and improved moisture could spell very low shower/storm chances for the southern Texas Panhandle. To no one's surprise, the vast majority of data continues to keep this disturbance and moisture plume shunted just south of the Panhandle, meaning any probability for precipitation looks to stay around 15-20% or less for our forecast area. If we do manage to pull better moisture northward and have some precip develop, rainfall totals would be on the lighter side (80-90% chance for totals <0.1").

As the weak disturbance exits, another short lived ridge will push over the Panhandles Tuesday. After a morning low stratus deck (perhaps some fog) gradually burns off, daytime highs will eventually reach the 80s. Drier air will dominate the afternoon though, with only slightly breezy south winds of 10-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions appear to be the only other noteworthy weather headline of the day Tuesday.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily favor warmer, drier, and breezy days ahead. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 80s to low 90s, before we cool back down to more seasonal temperatures late this week. Synoptic signals point towards Wed & Thu both being breezy, featuring 15-25 mph sustained winds with higher gusts closer to 30-40 mph, as well as very low relative humidity values. Solidly critical fire weather conditions would be likely both days should this forecast come to fruition. Looking for any precipitation chances, low potential for rain could exist with a weak cold front or two arriving later this week into the weekend, but uncertainty is quite high at this time. These fronts are trending even weaker than previous model iterations, but may have sufficient moisture in place to work with for rain production.

Focusing on more imminent chances, there continues to be a few outlier models giving a glimpse of storm potential on Wednesday ahead of an approaching system. Current projections place a 500mb trough/low lifting over the Northern Plains Wednesday, drawing a decent swath of mid-level theta-e and gulf moisture to portions of our region. Most models predict a stout, deepening surface low to the lee of the Rockies, draping a sharpening surface trough/dry line somewhere across a large portion of the southern and central Great Plains (potentially lagging as far west as the eastern Panhandles). The location of this feature will greatly depend on the strength, timing, and track of the system, but there is continued support for it to stay in our CWA. East of this boundary, a warm, moist, unstable sector with favorable shear would hypothetically support thunderstorm development.

It is important to note that there are several factors potentially working against storm development on Wednesday. This includes but is not limited to: early day cloud cover, potentially unfavorable timing and track of the system, stout capping inversions just above the surface, and potential for dry air mixing to choke out any attempts at convective initiation. If any storms are able to form though, they could have conditions to become severe. Currently, POPs are only ~15% for Wednesday afternoon, quickly diminishing into the evening hours.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hrs. Winds will remain out of the south at about 10-20 kts, increasing tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 30 kts possible. MVFR ceilings may invade AMA towards the end of the period.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.