textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected in the southwest TX Panhandle on Saturday.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across the combined Panhandles with potential wind headlines needed. Patchy to widespread blowing dust may become a road hazard.

- A pattern change could come as early as Wednesday night. Cooler temperatures increased chances of showers and storms for the entire Panhandles. While severe weather chances are low, the more favorable impacts would be localized flooding due to heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Easterly winds this morning will lead to possible low clouds and maybe even some patchy fog from Amarillo to Guymon eastward. The most prime opportunity for fog looks to be around 5AM-8AM, but it could start as early as 2AM and end as late as 9AM.

This afternoon, an upper level trough stalled out just north of the Dakotas in southern Canada will continue to suppress the high over Mexico and keep a zonal flow over the Panhandles today and become more southwesterly on Sunday. While the upper jet will not be too impressive today, the main driver will be a lee surface low that will track across the Panhandles. This will set up critical fire weather for the southwest Panhandles, with elevated conditions elsewhere. While northeast winds will be in place on the back side of the low, out ahead, of the low we'll see southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with very low RH values, which will be the main driver of the critical fire weather today.

Tonight a cold front is expected to track part way into the Panhandles and stall out before retreating back to the northeast on Sunday. This is due to an upper level disturbance tracking over southern NV, and putting the Panhandles under southwest flow, with a strong jet aloft moving over the Panhandles. Another lee surface low, will develop over southeast CO on Sunday afternoon, and track east across the Panhandles Sunday evening. Ahead of that low will be strong southwest winds and very low RH values for the entire Panhandles. The strongest winds will be in the west. Additionally, with a reasonably stacked jet aloft, there is certainly concerns for wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range, and we could be looking a wind highlights to accompany the critical fire weather conditions. While this setup would typically be favorable for a potential high wind event, there is a weakness in the 500 mb flow reducing the wind gusts form momentum transfer. The lee surface low will track across the OK Panhandle late in the evening and pull to the northeast keeping a more westerly flow in the souther Panhandles overnight Sunday night. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s in the south due to the winds staying up in the 10 to 15 mph range.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Overall, upper trough over Canada will continue to keep high pressure suppressed over Mexico and multiple disturbances are expected to track across the CO/KS area on Monday and Tuesday. While highs are expected to be in the 80s to 90s across the south, the north will still be a bit of a debate, as a cold front is expected to shift back and forth. The OK Panhandle, while currently is expected to be in the low 80s, could be in the 70s as well if the cooler air stays to the south in the northern TX Panhandle.

Wednesday through Friday as the upper trough moves over the Great Lakes and starts to push deeper to the southeast, that will set up more of a northwest flow over the Panhandles, and possible showers and storms to be embedded in that northwest flow. The big change that we'll be watching starts Wednesday night through at least Friday and possibly into the weekend. As another upper trough over southern NV and a surface high off to the east will help draw up both low level Gulf moisture and mid level Pacific moisture to the Panhandles. The cooler air over the Panhandles from the northwest flow pattern combined with ample low and mid level moisture will set up a more tropical sounding versus a severe weather setup. While a lot can change and it's very early, if this setup can hold, it could support a long fused rain event with some limited thunderstorms, that could be very beneficial to the drought situation, and start to tone down the daily fire weather threats.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Low cloud decks present this morning should lift and burn off within the first few hours of the 12z period, but additional low cloud decks are likely to return after 06z tonight. Winds will turn northerly at 10-15 kts this morning behind a front, turning around the dial at about 10 kts or less through the rest of the period.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Critical Fire Weather in the southwest today as a surface low will track across the Panhandles. Given the lighter winds aloft, this will be more of an RH driven critical Fire Weather day as winds will be mainly 15 to 20 mph in the southwest. RFTI's in the southwest today look to be in the 2 to 4 range. Elsewhere in the northeast on the back side of the low, we can expect more northerly winds and just elevated Fire Weather.

Sunday with a more classic setup for Fire Weather across the Panhandles, we can expect winds 250 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Stronger winds will be in the western Panhandles RH values are expected to be in the 10 to 15 percent range and that will set up RFTI's ranging from 4 to 6 in the central and west, an din the 2 to 4 in the eastern Panhandles. There will be a dryline setup on Sunday, but most recent guidance expects it will mix out of the area, leading to all areas needing a Red Flag Warning, but recent guidance may suggest that the dryline doesn't mix out and some of the eastern Panhandles will have high RH values, and maybe even a strong to severe storm develop. So no plans on upgrading the watch to a warning at this time, given the uncertainty of just how high the RH values will be in the eastern Panhandles.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ006-011-012-016>018-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for OKZ001>003.