textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and through tonight. A few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.

- Thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and early evening in the western and southern Texas Panhandle. Strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

- Triple digit heat may return early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

An upper-level ridge is now situated south/southwest of the Panhandles, but we are seeing temperatures soar into the 90s to low- 100s as of the early afternoon hours. Given that there will be at least some mid-level forcing, showers and thunderstorms are favored to develop in far northeastern New Mexico later this afternoon and move into the Panhandles. Forecast soundings show an inverted-V profile with a layer of moisture above it. These conditions will be favorable for strong downdrafts, epitomized by DCAPE values around 1600-1800 J/kg. Effective shear is favored to be somewhat favorable for storm organization, 25-30 kts (possibly locally higher), despite being mostly driven by directional shear. Given the winds aloft leading to a storm motion of 20-25 kts with the high DCAPE values, thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 70 mph, possibly higher given a strong enough updraft. Not too concerned about the aspect of large hail; temperatures aloft are fairly warm, and instability looks tall and skinny (suggesting slower updrafts) and MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 1000 J/kg. Additionally, PWATs are above normal for this time of year, almost entirely due to the moisture present above the boundary layer. This will encourage melting hail if hail is able to develop within a storm. Thunderstorms are favored to continue through the evening and potentially even through the night before dissipating soon after Friday's sunrise.

An outflow boundary may be present across the Panhandles Friday morning, but it may dissipate before the afternoon. A weak cold front will move in from the north, potentially as early as the late morning hours, but certainly through the afternoon. There are some uncertainties about how far south the front will make it before stalling out, but the general consensus is somewhere between the Canadian River Valley and far northwest Texas. The position of the front will have big implications on where thunderstorms will develop, which is leading to uncertainty in the forecast for the Texas Panhandle. If the front stalls out around the Canadian River Valley, then we could see greater thunderstorm coverage across the Texas Panhandle. If it pushes further south, then maybe the southern Texas Panhandle could see a brief window for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given local tendencies and decent consistency among guidance that typically handles fronts well, leaning toward the latter solution. If thunderstorms do develop in the afternoon, won't be able to rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph or higher given very high DCAPE values. Throughout the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop on the higher terrain of New Mexico and there is a signal that they could gradually grow into a cluster or MCS. Depending on where it develops, this activity could dive southeast into the Texas Panhandle. There is high uncertainty about this round of thunderstorms and, not only will it depend on where they initially develop, but will also depend on the position of the cold front.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The upper-level ridge will significantly shift westward to around Las Vegas as a positively tilted shortwave moves in from the north Saturday. There's a low chance (10-25%)for another round of showers and thunderstorms in the far western Panhandles on Saturday, but dry air should be moving into the eastern and potentially central Panhandles, and this dry air may try to exert some (negative) influence onto any potential development in the western Panhandles. The most likely scenario is that most, if not all, of the CWA will stay dry on Saturday. Temperatures will be merely a few degrees warmer than normal, a welcomed change from the past week and a half.

The upper-level ridge will begin to extend back toward the east on Sunday and into early next week. This means we will see temperatures warm back up into the upper-90s to low-100s with likely dry weather.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Thunderstorms are favored to occur for Dalhart and Guymon this evening, and any thunderstorm will be capable of producing strong downdraft wind gusts. There is a lower chance for showers and thunderstorms for Amarillo later tonight into tomorrow, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with winds becoming breezy out of the north behind a weak cold front.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-007>010- 013>015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.