textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Elevated to near-Critical Fire Weather conditions across the Panhandles through Thursday.

- Widespread triple-digit high temperatures expected throughout the work week.

- Monitoring a potential shift in the pattern that could bring storm chances to the northwestern Panhandles Friday and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Over the short term, upper-level high pressure continues to reside over the Panhandles. Lee-side troughing will tighten surface pressure gradients, allowing for sustained winds around 20 mph across the Panhandles. Breezy conditions, along with dry conditions intruding from the west, will allow for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions to return. These conditions are dependent upon fuels as well, which due to the recent heat wave and lack of precipitation in many areas across the Panhandles, are estimated to be around the 80th-90th percentile. These elevated fire conditions will remain the case into tomorrow as well, with the same upper- level pattern creating lee-side troughing and breezy conditions across the Panhandles.

Other than elevated fire weather conditions, the story largely remains the same. High temperatures in the triple digits, with low (less than 10%) chance of precipitation in the far northwestern Panhandles for today and Tuesday. With almost no upper-level support, terrain induced thunderstorms are possible, but with around 40 degree dewpoint depressions at the surface and the best H700 ThetaE displaced SE from the northwestern Panhandles, thunderstorms surviving the trip from higher elevation in New Mexico seems unlikely.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level high remains in place over the Panhandles, allowing hot and dry conditions to prevail. Thursday we begin to see models trend toward the eastern propagation of the upper-level high pressure, placing the CWA on the western extent of the ridge. Perturbations in the upper-level flow could lead to daily storm chances across the northwestern combined Panhandles. The failure mode of this scenario lies in the uncertainty of where this upper-level high will end up. There are significant long-range model discrepancies in how far east the high pressure center will propagate, and if it does not push far enough east, the best chances of precipitation will likely be displaced west of the Panhandles. Confidence will increase throughout the week with persistence in model runs and as more models see the event window, but until then, confidence remains low.

The high pressure center is currently progged to retrograde back west, placing the Panhandles under the upper-level high again as we go into next week. This will support the return of widespread triple-digit high temperatures and decreased PoP chances if conditions stay consistent throughout the week.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds will remain predominantly out of the S, reaching around 15-20 kts sustained with gusts close to 30 kts in some areas (primarily KGUY and KDHT). Sustained winds will come down to around 10 kts overnight, before increasing again through Tuesday morning.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-010-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.