textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Dry, warm, and breezy through the weekend.

- Evolving pattern change and increasing moisture will lead to a chance for rain and storms next week. Severe storms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The main features around the country this evening are the hurricane in the gulf, an area of high pressure from the southwest U.S. across the southern plains, a developing trough digging towards the Pacific Northwest, and a closed low several hundred miles off the CA coast. Water vapor satellite loop this evening showing dry air over the southern plains with a mid-upper level low/cyclonic shear axis running from southern TX into southeast/east NM. There is a 75kt upper level jet streak on the south side of this shear axis with a few lightning strikes noted just across the Rio Grande to the southwest of the TX Big Bend area. Elsewhere over west TX and the panhandle it is just to dry for any kind of weather to materialize. So with this dry air expected to remain through the weekend little sensible weather is expected. Expect temps will warm a little so that by Sunday and Monday highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s over most of the panhandle region.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Evolving large scale pattern change will result in a deep trough over the western U.S. by the beginning of the week. Increasing moisture will occur Sunday night into Monday morning so that by 12Z Monday deep layer RH will be >70% over the southern panhandle region. Southwesterly flow aloft and short wave ripples in the flow on Monday look to stay more in NM...although there is the potential for some strong winds over 40 mph mainly in the northwestern panhandles. The southwest U.S. shortwave will begin ejecting out of the southwest and into the central plains late Tuesday and into Wednesday with an increasing negative tilt and developing speed max on the south side. This looks like it will brush by our northwest area at that time so the best pcpn chances will be Tuesday evening and then diminishing on Wed. At this time due to the positioning of the ejecting trough it doesn't look like any heavy rain amounts are expected then. However, the GFS model is hinting at better rain chances and heavier pcpn over portions of western TX thru western OK Friday into Saturday. Will need to monitor the evolution of this during the upcoming week as there is potential for heavy rain amounts wherever the axis of heaviest rain sets up.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions and clear skies are forecast at all terminals over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at about 10-15 kts with slightly higher gusts this afternoon.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.