textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Weather system is bringing rain showers and thunderstorms to the panhandles today through Monday. Low potential flood threat (At least a 15% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point)

- Another period of wetter weather has the potential of occurring for next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A weather system is ejecting out of the desert southwest and moving across the Great Plains today and Sunday. In doing so this system is drawing up a fetch of low level moisture across the southern plains including the panhandles. This is readily seen in the ample theta-e advection in the 850 to 700 mb level. The center of this moisture fetch will most likely rest over the western panhandles for today and then shift towards the eastern panhandles for Sunday. The precipitable water within this fetch of moisture will most likely reach to around 1 to 1.25 inches. This will put the moisture very high for this time of year to the point it might be near daily record highs. However, the biggest point that needs to be stated is that this is the typical dry season so any moisture during this time would be considered high. With this moisture any rain shower or thunderstorm will be capable of heavy rainfall, but it is doubtful that torrential rainfall would occur as the moisture is not to that level. So it is best to not compare this event to the ones in September which had far more moisture. As the system passes across the area it will cause round of rain showers and thunderstorms. The first of these is already moving into the western panhandles this morning and should linger until this afternoon. The next round will then most likely occur later this evening over the western panhandles just with a bit more eastward extant. This then lingers into the next round which will most likely impact the western to central portions of the panhandles on Sunday. As such the western panhandles have a better chance of seeing higher rain amounts with the rain amounts decreasing for the central and eastern panhandles. This can see 1 to 2 inches of accumulations in the western panhandles and 0.1 to 1 inch for the central to eastern panhandles. With such rain accumulations there is a low potential for flash flooding to occur mainly in the western panhandles. This is most likely for areas that see multiple rounds of rainfall rather from a single rain shower or thunderstorm. Overall instability with the passage of this system is weak which will greatly hinder the intensity of any thunderstorm. Still a strong thunderstorms that is capable of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out for either today or Sunday. The passage of this weather system will also cause a drop in the temperatures both for today and Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Monday the weather system will still be present across the southern plains only now departing to the east. This will keep the fetch of moisture across the eastern panhandles. Further rain showers and thunderstorms have a medium chance of developing within this moisture for Monday. This will allow for additional rain accumulations in the eastern panhandles. There remains a low chance for flooding as the moisture will still be climatologically high. However, since there is lesser potential for training of storms this threat will most likely be less compared to Saturday or Sunday. The weather system will in large depart come Monday night with the rain showers and thunderstorms coming to an end. For Tuesday the flow will shift to a broad southwesterly which will promote drier conditions over the panhandles that persist through Wednesday. Come Thursday through Saturday the pattern continues to adjust over the southern panhandles. This will allow for another fetch of moisture to move into the southern panhandles. The can bring another period of wet weather for the end of the week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Then a weather system is actively spreading rain showers and thunderstorms over the panhandles starting in the west. This is impacting KDHT first during early to mid morning hours and then KGUY in the mid morning hours. These showers will be accompanied with low clouds deck that can cause MVFR conditions. This round of rain showers and thunderstorms then will most likely end going into the afternoon with the next round starting in the evening. This second round will push further eastward but will still most likely only impact KGUY and KDHT. Once again low cloud decks will accompany the rain and thunderstorms that can cause MVFR conditions. Outside of this there will be gusty daytime winds at all terminals for today.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.