textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorm possibilities exist this afternoon and overnight across the eastern combined Panhandles. The strongest storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and an isolated tornado.

- Excessive rainfall is likely today and Wednesday mainly over the southern and southeastern TX Panhandle. Severe thunderstorm chances roll into Wednesday, but the probability remains low.

- Chances are increasing for freezing temperatures across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible across the eastern combined Panhandles this evening through the overnight period. See the MESOSCALE UPDATE for more details about Day 1.

Wednesday morning, the theta-e axis looks to be centered over the southeast TX Panhandle and points east. Preliminary QPF values have been consistently in the 2-3" range as an event totals for these locations. Areas further west will get their chance at beneficial rainfall throughout the day, though flooding appears less likely due to model inconsistency of repeat rounds of rain for these areas. Still, given how high our soil moisture content is from the record rainfall back in September, locations outside of the southeast won't need as much rain to flood, especially in urban areas and low lying spots. Concerning our severe potential, there's still a low chance through much of the day for storms to be severe in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, barring our northwestern zones. Destabilization from sunrise to sunset will allow for a few storms to grow upscale, but their sustainability is still questionable given model inconsistency with organization. During the morning, if storms remain elevated, hail would be the primary hazard. However, if storms become surface based, (which is especially likely during the afternoon and evening), all hazards cannot be ruled out. 0-6 km bulk shear during the day will still be favorable for supercell production, though these cells will likely be clustered together instead of remaining discrete.

Recent 12Z CAMs are picking up on a faster progression of the cold front on Wednesday. This will allow shower and thunderstorm activity to subside by Wednesday night and much lower rain chances heading into Thursday.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Once the upper trough moves out of our area and the cold front fully pushes through, a stable airmass and cooler temperatures will be left in its wake for the rest of the week. Highs may start in the 70s and 60s on Thursday, but by Friday we may not even escape the 50s during the day time. This weekend, below average high temperatures will continue in the 60s and 70s. The latest 13Z NBM has introduce more freezing (<32F) temperatures across our northern zones Saturday morning, while the rest of the CWA could range in the mid to upper 30s. Rain chances through the extended period remain absent due to high pressure aloft.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

There is a slight chance for KAMA to be briefly impacted by a shower or thunderstorm between 21Z and 23Z today. However, confidence is low enough at this time to leave any mention of thunder out of the TAF due to expected activity staying east of KAMA at this time. For now, without potential amendments later, expect VFR conditions to prevail through 12Z Wed for KAMA and through the entire period for KGUY and KDHT. Breezy southwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts are expected early in this period and coming down towards the latter part of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Wednesday night for TXZ010-014-015-019-020.

OK...None.