textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, mostly across the eastern and central Texas Panhandle. A few storms may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.

- Windy conditions are expected behind the cold front on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Cannot rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph in the southeastern Texas Panhandle.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Satellite imagery this evening shows a trough over the Baja California peninsula tracking slowly eastward. Meanwhile, there is quasi-zonal flow across the Northern US. Upper-level clouds are creeping into the southeastern Texas Panhandle as moisture from the Pacific begins to move in.

The trough will continue to move eastward tonight and cloud coverage will increase across the Panhandles. We could see isolated to scattered showers later tonight as there is a decent surge of 700mb theta-e as well as some subtle perturbations in the flow ahead of the trough, though this activity would have to fight off some dry air in the lower portion of the atmosphere. In all, that culminates in around a 15% chance for rain late tonight.

We should see clouds clear later Tuesday morning and into the afternoon which will allow for temperatures to climb into the upper- 70s in the west to upper-80s in the east. Additional forcing should arrive in the afternoon which will present a chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Models are still split on how much low-level moisture will be able to return, though the better chance for appreciable low-level moisture return will be across the eastern and portions of the central combined Panhandles. If this does happen, MLCAPE values around 750-1250 J/kg will be possible along with around 45 kts of effective shear with a veering wind profile. This suggests a supercell will be possible in the eastern half of the combined Panhandles which would be capable of producing large hail, owing to the steep mid-level lapse rates, and damaging winds, with DCAPE values around 1000-1250 J/kg.

All that said, there are some serious doubts as to whether or not storms will be able to be sustained. There are hints that a layer of dry air around 700mb will work into the central and eastern Panhandles Tuesday afternoon. If this does happen, we could see thunderstorms struggle to develop or struggle to maintain intensity as dry air entrainment acts as an inhibitor for sustained thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, this dry air may not impact the western Panhandles much and thus we could see some high-based showers or an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. These showers would be capable of producing strong downdrafts owing to around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE.

A cold front will move in Tuesday night and through Wednesday. Winds will become breezy due to a steep post-frontal surface pressure gradient and a strong low-level jet. Surface winds will become sustained at 25 to 35 mph, and locally higher possible in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Expecting 30-45 mph wind gusts across the northern and western Panhandles, and 45-55 mph gusts in the eastern Texas Panhandle. There is a 15-30% chance for wind gusts to exceed 60 mph in the southeastern Texas Panhandle later Wednesday morning. This means that at least a Wind Advisory will probably eventually be needed in the eastern Texas Panhandle late Tuesday night into early Wednesday afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible given the windy and dry conditions. Winds will begin to weaken Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The weather system that produces Tuesday and Wednesday's weather will move off into the Deep South on Thursday, and we'll see northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. A surface low will develop Thursday afternoon resulting in the return of breezy and dry conditions and possible elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

Anomalously warm low-level temperatures will return to the Panhandles on Friday and into Saturday. Expecting highs to reach into the upper-70s to low-80s on Friday and mid to upper-80s on Saturday. The NBM gives a 30-60% chance for highs to reach or exceed 90 degrees on Saturday with a 60-90% chance in the southeastern Texas Panhandle, Palo Duro Canyon, and portions of the Canadian River Valley.

A cold front will move in Saturday night and bring in a quick drop in temperatures. Breezy to windy conditions are favored behind this front.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest and west at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times. Could see -TSRA conditions for KGUY/KAMA between 18Z and 23Z, but confidence not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Erratic winds with thunderstorms will be possible if thunderstorms move over TAF site. Winds will subside slightly past 00Z. For KGUY/KDHT, winds will shift to northerly as cold front moves into the region towards the end of the TAF period with winds sustained around 15-25 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.