textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Thunderstorms are possible today across the central and eastern Panhandles and any storms that do form will likely have heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of next week and heat illnesses will be possible if proper precautions are not taken for those that are doing activities outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

An H500 low pressure system is currently moving northeast over far west Texas early this morning. This upper level low is forecast to move northeast through the day on Saturday. It is looking unlikely to see much shower or storm development before sunrise as mid level subsidence moves in across the area based on some of the latest global model output. How long the subsidence later remains in place over the Panhandles is uncertain, but most model guidance does suggest a better plume of moisture moves in during the day on Saturday. Plenty of PVA associated with the low should generate at least isolated if not scattered convection late Saturday morning into the afternoon. PWAT values are expected to be around 1 to 1.5 inches during the afternoon which will lead to a heavy rain threat with any storms that develop. Once again, a lack of strong steering flow will lead to storms moving very slowly and they will struggle to maintain cores. With all the moisture in place, localized flash flooding concerns may arise with any slow moving storms. Rain rates upwards of 3+ inches per hour are certainly possible given this scenario. With all the cloud cover expected and the upper level low overhead, temperatures should be cooler in the upper 70s to 80s for highs.

The upper level low will exit off to the northeast on Sunday and high pressure should set up over much of the region. Even though surface moisture should remain in place across the central and more so the east, there is not a strong signal for synoptic forcing to provide additional storm chances. A few storms may be able to develop off of the higher terrain of NM and approach the western Panhandles during the evening and cannot completely rule out surface convergence or convective temperatures being achieved to generate an isolated storm further east, but confidence in either scenario is very low, thus no PoP mentions on Sunday at this time. WAA will return on Sunday afternoon with H850 temperatures rising into the lower 30s Celsius and surface highs should reach the 90s to just over 100 for a few locations. Overnight lows over the coming few days will almost certainly be on the warm side with the surface dew points mainly in the 50s to 60s.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Upper level pattern looks to feature a ridge across the south and east with troughing across the northwestern US for much of next week. High pressure is forecast to remain near or just to the east/southeast of the southern High Plains which will lead to summer- like temperatures all of next week. The south to southwest low level wind next week will bring WAA to the region with daily afternoon highs in the 90s to triple digits. Heat advisory criteria may be achieved on the hottest days next week for the usual warm spots, such as the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon State Park. There will be some surface moisture across the Panhandles, but heat index values are currently expected to be around or slightly below the forecast highs.

Very weak winds throughout the atmospheric profile appear likely next week as the jet stream remains to the north and northwest of the region. Plenty of low level and mid level moisture looks to be in place over the southern High Plains next week, but given a lack of good synoptic forcing, widespread rain chances are not currently expected during the next work week. If a shortwave trough does move over the region, there could be showers or storms that develop on any of the days next week. No one day really sticks out at this time for the best chances for storms but any storms next week could produce heavy rain and may be severe if all ingridients are in place.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Chances for showers have increased for KGUY while thunderstorm chances remain intact for KAMA this afternoon and evening. Current satellite and radar scans suggest precipitation should build into KAMA later this morning, with thunderstorm potential increasing as daytime heating transpires. Chances for thunderstorms at KGUY still seem low for the time being, but amendments may become necessary if sufficient heating can occur over or near the terminal later this afternoon.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.