textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening, through Sunday, with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out Saturday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible Monday and Tuesday, but it will depend upon how much rain occurs in the days before.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The upper level ridge continues to break down with a closed low off the coast of northern CA with a trough beginning to encroach on the Four Corners Region. A mid to upper level trough continues to saddle the Northern Great Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The the break down of the ridge with the trough to the north is allowing for a weak surface cold front to sneak into the northern combined Panhandles late in the morning. This front is expected to stall, with uncertainty to how far south it makes it into the Panhandles before it does. This front will be key feature for afternoon storms as CAMs suggests the convergences along the front will aid in lift for convection. Right now, highest confidence for late afternoon/evening thunderstorms lies in the OK Panhandle and the far northwestern TX Panhandle into eastern NM. There are also hints at some perturbations in the approaching southwest flow aloft to help this evening. Timing of the perturbation of the flow aloft may be key to initiate storms as well. Hence, why most CAMs are not excited for activity until close to sunset.

H7 theta-e advection is also looking to be the best across the west wrapping into the OK Panhandle. With temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s a possibility south of the frontal boundary, if models are not handling H7 theta-e very well enough moisture could pop some isolated storms in the middle of the afternoon away from the boundary. However, a dry H7 level may cause a small cap, enough so to limit convection until the shortwave comes in later in the day. Moisture advection is also then expected to pick up late tonight into Saturday.

The increase in moisture availability is what will help PoPs increase for Saturday. However, Saturday is going to highly depend on the recovery from tonight and tomorrow morning, at least for strong updrafts. Despite the cold front exiting and winds returning to the south, temperatures are only expected to warm into the 70s. Moisture will be there, but being socked in under clouds most of the day may inhibit daytime heating and could potentially limit convection. Here's to hoping for some rain without much of the severe aspect.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Sunday, the eastern to southeastern third to half of the combined Panhandles may be under the gun for some severe storms. However, negative H7 theta-e advection will be moving into New Mexico and the western combined Panhandles. Where this cutoff will be is in question. The FA is likely to see a potent dryline set-up, bisecting the western three quarters of the Panhandles from the eastern. Drier Tds in the low 30s are expected to move in from the west with WSW winds around 20 mph. Some of the deterministic models have the dryline feature mix well into western OK, maybe leaving a small sliver of Collingsworth County by 7 pm Sunday night.

As the upper level low moves inland from the Pacific, models have the track such that Sunday onward the combined Panhandles are likely to be dry slotted with very minimal PoPs, below 10, the rest of the extended period. With the exception of the far eastern Panhandles that could see some surface moisture from a retreating dryline giving them upwards of 20 pops each afternoon/evening. This trough will also introduce some cooler temperatures to much of the Intermountain West down into New Mexico. This will keep a slight temperature gradient across the Panhandles with slightly cooler afternoon highs in the west and warmer temps to the east.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. There will be additional thunderstorm chances that could change the conditions later in the period after 18Z. Higher confidence in thunderstorms remains for KGUY and KDHT at this time. Winds should stay southerly especially for KAMA around 15 kts. KGUY and maybe KDHT have a chance to see winds out of the north to east (15kts) behind a frontal boundary after 12Z for KGUY and 18Z for KDHT. The boundary may potentially stall impacting only KGUY with a wind shift. Of course, once thunderstorms do get going there will be chances for erratic wind shifts and strong to severe wind gusts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.