textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the western Panhandles today, with conditions returning for the entire Panhandles tomorrow (Thursday).

- Very low chances exists for a storm or two in the eastern Panhandles this afternoon. If storms can develop, the could become strong to severe.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The combined Panhandles continue to see the same pattern of warm and dry conditions with a dry line moving in and out of the eastern Panhandles. Even when this dryline is in the area, the eastern Panhandles are only seeing very slight to slight chances for a thunderstorm to pop up.

Today, critical fire weather conditions are expected in the western combined Panhandles, with some 10 to maybe 15 PoPs in the central to eastern Panhandles. An upper level low pressure system is currently sitting over the PacNW states at this time with a ridge over the Great Plains into Mississippi River Valley. The leading edge of this trough has a corridor of moisture running north to south just to the west of the FA a this time. Behind it, dry air can be seen on water vapor imagery following close behind. This dry air is expected to fill into the western Panhandles today and form a dryline that will bisect the FA somewhere around the Amarillo to Guymon line. Hence, the fire weather to the west and slight chance for storms to the east of the line. The problem with the chances for storms is that currently models depict a strong cap that needs to erode, but also because moisture availability in the mid levels will be lacking as the aforementioned dry air moves in. Models have CAPE values around 600 to 1500 J/Kg with shear between 30 and 40 kts. So, if something can pop it will have the potential to become severe mainly from hail up to 1"-1.25" and wind gusts up to 65 mph. DCAPE, after all, is looking plentiful, up to 1500 J/Kg when the environment becomes surface based.

Overnight, the western combined Panhandles are expected to have a very poor RH recovery to around 20 to 35 percent while the eastern half could see RH values in the 40 percent near the dryline to up to 80 percent in the far eastern Panhandles. Going into the afternoon tomorrow, the dryline is expected to move east out of the Panhandles causing the entire FA to see RH values dropping to 6 to 9 percent in the afternoon. Behind the dryline SW to W winds will be reaching 20 to 30 mph thanks to the nice pressure gradient. Therefore, widespread critical fire weather conditions are anticipated for Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The aforementioned low pressure in the short term discussion is progged to move into the north central US and Canada and stay there for some time. This will at least suppress any ridge building over the FA through the rest of the week. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to remain in place with highs staying in the upper 70s to 80s through the extended. The period is expected to remain dry with may a slight chance PoP sneaking into the far northeast in Beaver County Saturday night. The next solid critical fire weather day after tomorrow, is expected to be Sunday with breezy southwest winds and RH values falling to 9 percent.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions with southwest winds around the 10 to 15 kt range are expected through the period. Slightly higher winds with gusts up to 30 kts are expected for KDHT this afternoon after 18Z. KAMA and KGUY may not see the 20 gust 30 kts until late in the period after 16Z Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A dryline feature is expected to separate the western Panhandles from the east with RH values falling into the 7 to 12 percent range. Further west from the dryline winds are expected to be higher around 20 mph. The far western stack of counties in today's Red Flag have a higher confidence for critical conditions because of this. The stack of counties that include Potter & Randall on are the fence depending on where the surface boundary ends up and for how long. This feature will stay around through the night leaving the areas to the west with very poor RH recoveries in the 20 to 50 percent range while areas east may see recoveries above 50 percent.

Tomorrow the dryline will mix well east of the Panhandles leaving the entire combined Panhandles in critical fire weather conditions as winds ramp back up to the 20 to 25 mph (potentially some 30 mph sustained) range out of the SW to W and RH values Panhandle wide drop to 10 percent or lower. Gust are anticipated to be nearing 40 mph especially across the central to southern TX Panhandle. A wind shift to the north is expected in the evening. This front may even come in sooner and stall leaving portions of the OK Panhandle with only elevated fire weather conditions if that. Thanks to lighter winds and slightly higher humidity behind the front. Overnight winds should drop to the 10 to 15 mph range out of the northwest to north behind this front.

Some elevated conditions may exist Friday and Saturday, with the next widespread critical fire weather day not anticipated until Sunday with similar conditions as expected Thursday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016-017-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003.