textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Warm and dry conditions persist over the next 7 days for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Quiet and uneventful weather is forecast for the rest of the day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. High level cirrus will likely move over the region today but mostly sunny conditions should persist. Light winds and temperatures rising into the 60s will lead to a wonderful end to 2025 weather wise. Temperatures as we approach the midnight hour will drop into the lower 40s to mid 30s across the region.

Northwest H500 flow will become westerly during the day tomorrow as a negatively titled upper level trough moves onshore from the Pacific. This feature will bring a surge of Pacific rich moisture to the southern High Plains. The only issue is that all of this moisture will be in the mid to upper levels and that the low levels remain very dry with the passage of this system. With that being said, there is some PVA with the trough as it moves overhead, with the best lift being during the late afternoon into the evening hours. The lift will likely lead to returns on radar and should produce light rain showers, but most of this will likely end up as virga, and at best sprinkles, for the Panhandles given all the low level dry air. The most likely scenario is virga with thick cloud cover most of the day on Thursday. The thick cloud cover may lead to temperatures remaining in the 60s, but cannot rule out a few low 70s across the southwest where winds will be a bit stronger than the rest of the area. The breezy winds may lead to elevated fire weather during the afternoon hours. Temperatures on Thursday night are forecast to be mainly above freezing, but the northern half of the area may still drop down to the low 30s.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Warm and dry conditions persist to start the New Year of 2026 for the Panhandles. The upper level low that moved onshore on Thursday should eventually weaken and make its way towards the Rockies and High Plains this upcoming weekend. That system passage should lead to temperatures moderating in the 60s for the most part, but cannot rule out some areas reaching the 70 degree mark this weekend. Elevated fire weather may arise on Sunday as breezy south to southwest winds are forecast during the afternoon hours.

Similar conditions are expected going into the first full work week of 2026 with warm temperatures and dry weather. Upper level ridging pattern should set up across much of the CONUS during this time frame. However, there may be some hope on the horizon as ensemble mean guidance suggests a pattern change may lead to a trough digging across the west mid to late next week. Timing and differences in the pattern obviously vary in the guidance at this time, but it is certainly something to potentially look forward to if you are not a fan of the dry and warm conditions during the Winter months.

Muscha

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be variable at 5 kts or less tonight, then around 5-10 kts on Thursday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.