textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

-Thunderstorm chances daily beginning Thursday and extending through the weekend. Some of these storms could be severe in nature.

-Continued critical fire risk this afternoon and evening, with breezy winds and low relative humidities.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

After a cool start to the morning with some areas getting down into the 30s, we should warm up well into the 70s across all of the Panhandles. With a low amplitude H500 ridge moving over the Panhandles as of the latest 16Z obs, associated LL dry air is apparent. Coupled with a sfc trough lee of the Rockies, SW winds will be breezy at times, gusting to around 40 mph this afternoon, especially within the northern Panhandles. A combination of low RH values down to around 12-14% and breezy SW winds will result in critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for the northern combined Panhandles.

In the wake of the H500 low amplitude ridge, a notable area of H850- 700 (+) theta-e advection will return to the southern High Plains along and out ahead of the main axis. In-conjunction with some large scale lift within the trough itself, this could result in some showers developing for portions of the region. Overall moisture transport values are not the highest, with QPF totals likely not getting above 0.1" and POP values not exceeding 30% overall. Rain chances should start midday tomorrow before dissipating tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The weather pattern for the Panhandles is shifting toward more active signal in the long-term. High temperatures throughout the week will remain seasonably warm, with highs in the 70's-80's throughout the entire period. The upper-air pattern transitions to zonal Wednesday into Thursday, allowing for temperatures and Gulf moisture to build into the area before transitioning to the more active pattern. The first signal of active weather could be as early as Thursday. The main upper-level trough will still be making landfall on the west coast, however, a shortwave lee trough elevated develops and provides synoptic support for more active weather. Gulf moisture transport through the beginning of the week will allow the associated lee-side sfc. low to produce moisture boundaries over the forecast area that could act as a convective trigger for weather on Thursday and Friday.

As we move into the weekend, a much more defined upper-level trough propagates into our region. This maintaining of upper-level southwesterly flow will keep PoPs high (50-80%) throughout the entire weekend. Storm mode is still an uncertainty, as long term models cannot clearly define it due to spatial resolutions. However, very early signals suggest warm sector precipitation early on Saturday being more widespread, with a chance for a second round of precipitation with a possibility of severe weather. There is uncertainty how precipitation Thursday-Saturday will affect Sunday's PoP chances, with increased spatial variation in moisture and forcing between deterministic models, but signals for precipitation are still present and will continue to be updated. Severe weather is possible with any round of storms Thursday-Sunday, and further clarification in timing and severity will be gained as we approach the weekend. Precipitation amounts through the weekend are still highly variable, but generally PoPs increase in the southeast and decrease in the northwest.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Skies will continue to see increasing high clouds through the period. Winds should stay primarily southerly around 15 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>007.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.