textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Very low (20 percent or less) precipitation chances will linger for mainly the northwest combined Panhandles through midweek, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail for most locations.

- Persistent high pressure will remain over the area, leading to continued above average temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach 105 degrees in some locations this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Thankfully, in the midst of sweltering September heat, we still have very low (but mentionable) precipitation chances. Unfortunately, only a very select few for a very small portion of the Panhandles have this potential. High pressure aloft is settling over the SE CONUS, which will help regional temperatures lower by another degree or two today (still mid 90s and triple digits). Breezy south- southwest winds of 10-20 mph will be in place both today and tomorrow, which could lead to elevated fire weather conditions. As in previous days, any appreciable moisture will only be present across the far west-northwest Panhandles this afternoon-evening, with 10-20% chances for stray weak showers/storms on the periphery of upper level high pressure.

Slim rain chances return again on Wednesday, and may be shifted slightly further east along a sfc trough/stalled boundary over the central and southwest Panhandles according to some of the latest CAM runs. If moisture pooled along this feature is sufficient, a very weak perturbation could also help get this hypothetical convection going. Even then, activity would be very spotty and rather weak (10- 15% POPs). High temperatures will increase again Wednesday, up by a few degrees across the board.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Our seemingly endless stretch of abnormal heat furthermore has no end in sight, as model trends continue to show upper level ridging dominating the synoptic pattern. Both deterministic and ensemble datasets depict high pressure being nudged eastward over the southeast CONUS through the week, and then morphing back on top of the Plains this weekend as persistent troughing settles atop the Pacific northwest. Moisture transport to the Panhandles will be scarce, while high temperatures steadily remain in the 90 to 105 range each day. If there are any better rain chances, models suggest Thursday could see slightly improved potential as the jet stream sags closer to the Panhandles. However, this still only supports meager 10-20% POPs to mainly far northwestern portions of the forecast area.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will remain between 10 to 15 kts through this evening before weakening overnight. Expect winds to re-strengthen during the day tomorrow between 10 to 15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.