textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible due to breezy to gusty winds and dry conditions today through Saturday.

- Cooler, near average, temperatures are forecast for today behind a cold front.

- Well above average temperatures (including record breaking highs) return and continues through the rest of the next week, even with a potential cold front on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Breezy winds will continue through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Winds will initially be out of the west, but will become northerly behind a southward moving cold front. Strong wind gusts at times may mix down through the overnight, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph or slightly higher at localized areas. These winds will aid in keeping the boundary layer well mixed so lows tonight should be quite mild in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Another day with breezy to gusty winds is forecast for Thursday, with the strongest winds across the northeastern Panhandles this time around. These winds will be aided by a jet streak, which thankfully will remain mainly to the north of the Panhandles, but could lead to higher winds across the northeast. Much drier air will also be in place behind the cold front, so even though temperatures will be cooler in the 50s, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will arise for the east during the morning into the afternoon. Winds should quickly decrease near or shortly after sunset on Thursday.

Strong WAA is forecast on Friday, with model guidance suggesting H850 temperatures may warm up to as high as 20 Celsius. This pattern will almost certainly lead to near or record breaking temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s and a few locations may even reach 80 degrees. The pattern also favors yet another day of breezy downslope winds with dry conditions and additional elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Friday afternoon. Breezy winds are forecast to remain in place throughout the night on Friday which will lead to lows near the current record warm lows for December 20.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Another potentially record breaking day is in store for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on Saturday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten once again during the day which will lead to breezy to gusty west winds with the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the region. The downslope winds will usher in much warmer air than average for mid December and record highs are certainly in jeopardy on Saturday afternoon. In fact, the record high for Saturday is currently 75 degrees set all the way back in 1894, so a record that is 130 years old may be broken that afternoon! A backdoor cold front will move in on Saturday afternoon into the evening which will shift winds to out of the northeast to east.

Cooler air moves in behind the front on Sunday, but even with the cooler air in place, temperatures are still expected to be above average in the mid 50s to low 60s. Zonal flow with H500 high pressure moving over central/southern Texas is very likely to prevail during the next work week which will lead to near record breaking temperatures and some breezy winds that could lead to elevated fire weather conditions leading up to Christmas day. Dry conditions are almost certain during this busy travel period.

Muscha

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions should persist with this TAF cycle. Breezy to gusty winds out of the west will become northerly before sunrise. Wind gusts upwards of 30-35 kts will be possible overnight, with occasional higher gusts being possible. Additionally, low level wind shear is very likely at the terminals with winds upwards of 50-60 kts at 1-2k ft agl. Gusty north winds will remain throughout the daytime hours before decreasing down to 10 kts near sunset. Mostly clear skies are forecast over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.