textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast from today through Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Very strong wind gusts are expected on Tuesday and a High Wind Warning remains in affect due to the potential for wind gusts of 60-65 mph.

- Blowing dust may lead to reduced visibility on Tuesday morning through the evening.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

As of late this morning, the forecast looks to be on track with dry and warm conditions holding under the upper-level ridge. Temperatures are expected to keep climbing today with most locations expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s by the time the sunsets. However, temperatures around Borger, TX will have to be watch as potential is present to see them break there record high temperature today. Unfortunately these warmer and dry conditions are also prompting elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon as RH values are expected to bottom out just under 15%. Winds are expected to be breezy throughout the day with southwesterly winds running around 15 to 20 mph and gusts anywhere from 25 to 30 mph.

As for tomorrow, models continue to trend towards a very windy and dry day as present 500mb heights, continue to see a very dry trough push into the Panhandles by the afternoon time frame. This trough is expected to be accompany by a very strong upper-level jet that has continuously trended with 500mb winds upwards of 80kt and mid to low levels winds upwards of 50kt. The presence of this jet as well as incoming front will likely see these upper-level winds translate into very strong wind gust at the surface. As it stands, expectations are to see southwesterly to westerly winds easily reach 35 to 40 mph with gust upwards of 60 mph present as well. However, given the potential, it is not impossible for a few isolated areas to experience gusts closer to 70 mph. Regardless, a High Wind Warning has been put into places for all counties expected the far southeast from 11 AM tomorrow and lasting until 7 PM that evening. Unfortunately, these strong winds are also going to come in conjunction with dry conditions across the Panhandles with most models seeing RH values fall as low as 13 to 20% for the day. One possible saving grace is the expectations to see some cloud cover ahead of this front and winds. If this cloud cover can hold out for a little bit than it may allow for RH values to hold up slightly better and keep a brief cap on the winds ahead of the front. However, present CAMs have not been too favorable with that idea with multiple runs suggesting cloud cover breaking down as early as noon. A secondary concern with these dry and windy conditions, is the potential to also see blowing dust as last weekend's rain system did not amount to much.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Moving into the mid-week model agreement looks to keep elevated to critical fire weather present as the upper-level jet looks to hold under zonal flow. This flow will allow for strong upper-level winds to keep bleeding down to the surface Wednesday resulting another round of winds in the 25 to 30 mph range with gusts greater than 40 mph not out of the question. What may be more concerning for the day is that, unlike Tuesday, a lack of cloud cover will likely see RH values much lower with potential to see some locations dip below 10%. This concern has prompted a Fire Weather Watch for the Wednesday afternoon with conditions likely to last into the evening hours. As for Thursday, conditions still look to be primed to see some form of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. However, present model agreement is seeing these concerns trend more for the dry conditions and fuels rather than the winds. Regardless these wind will have to be monitored as model agreement see a trough brush our north that afternoon. This trough will bring with it a cold frontal passage that will off very little in precipitation chances, but will see winds shift to a more northerly direction. Otherwise, concerns begin weaken behind the front as it brings with it cooler temperatures and slightly better RH recovery for Friday and the coming weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

As of late this morning, latest satellite was seeing some light cloud cover present over KDHT and KGUY with little to no impact currently present over the terminals. For this afternoon look for winds to eventually pick up at the surface with potential to see southwesterly gusts upwards of 30kt. Otherwise, VFR conditions will look to hold for the package with more high to mid-level cloud cover expected to build in by tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Monday followed by multiple straight days of critical fire weather conditions for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Tuesday...Very poor RH recovery is forecast to start the day with RH values only increasing into the lower 30s across the central and west. Strong westerly to southwesterly winds tomorrow are currently forecast to be the highest for this upcoming week as the jet stream moves over the Panhandles. Widespread high winds are expected with gusts upwards of 55-65 mph (cannot rule out a few gusts close to 70 mph across the northwest) during the late morning into the afternoon. Another day of dry conditions with low RHs is expected which will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions as a result. Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values could be as high as 7 to 8 (out of 10) during the afternoon. Hot temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are also forecast across the region, with the hottest temperatures across the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Conditions may benefit from expected cloud cover, but current expectation have it breaking down by noon.

Wednesday through Friday...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue through the rest of the work week for the Panhandles. Winds on Wednesday are not expected to be as high as Tuesday, but they still could have gusts upwards of 40 to 45 mph. A few rogue gusts upwards of 50 to 55 mph cannot be ruled out across the northwestern Panhandles. Winds will remain breezy to gusty on Thursday and Friday, but the higher end gust potential is not currently anticipated on either of these days with RH and fuels being a bigger contributor to concerns. Winds Wednesday afternoon will be out of the west or southwest before a weak front Thursday afternoon turns winds more northerly. Continued dry surface conditions are almost certain with RH values each afternoon down into at least the teens if not some single digit values (particularly on Wednesday). Critical fire weather conditions will likely arise for at least parts of the region on each of these days.

Scoleri

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ001>020- 317.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ001>014- 016>018-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for OKZ001>003.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for OKZ001>003.