textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Warm and windy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

- Well above average temperatures have a high chance of remaining in place across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A warm and windy Wednesday is in store for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A developing leeside low pressure system will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the Panhandles by late in the morning to early afternoon. This will lead to breezy to gusty southwest winds, with the strongest winds across the northwestern combined Panhandles. There is at least a medium chance (50-70 percent) for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph across this area this afternoon. The warm and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions during this time frame.

The surface low should move off to the east on Wednesday night as a low pressure system digs south across the Dakotas. A cold front should move across the area on Wednesday night with colder air moving in and breezy north winds in its wake. This colder air will remain in place across the region on Thursday and afternoon highs are forecast to be the coldest of the next 7 days in the 50s, which are right around average for mid December. Thankfully, the main H300 jet appears to stay north of the Panhandles on Thursday, so the strongest wind potential should also remain to the north. Still cannot rule out some breezy north winds on Thursday though. Winds should become southwesterly on Thursday night into Friday morning with lows dropping down to freezing or slightly cooler.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The potential for high pressure and zonal flow to remain in place from late this work week through at least the middle of next week is very high. This pattern will engulf most of the country by the middle of next week, leading to above average temperatures and dry conditions for the Panhandles leading into the Christmas travel season. A leeside low is forecast to develop on Friday, aiding in WAA and bringing in drier air. This will lead to temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. That trend will continue on Saturday where record highs may be tied or broken on either of these days. Elevated fire weather concerns may arise on either of these days as well due to the breezy west to southwest winds. A very weak front on Sunday should drop down temperatures around 10 degrees, but they will still be well above average. Highs in the 60s and 70s return Monday through at least the middle of next week.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts today with gusts up to 35 kts, then weakening some this evening but remain in the 10 to 20 kts range. Low-level wind shear is expected for Dalhart tonight starting around 09z. There is low confidence in perhaps a brief period of low-level wind shear for Guymon, but due to the low confidence, will leave out of the TAFs for now.

Vanden Bosch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.