textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the western Panhandles on today, with conditions returning for the entire Panhandles on Thursday.

- Very low chances exists for a storm or two in the eastern Panhandles this afternoon. If storms can develop, the could become strong to severe.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Dryline will set up today across the central to maybe even the western Panhandles. Just along and east of that line will have low clouds to start the morning and some higher RH values to help the grasses out a bit. But by the afternoon the dryline should mix to at least the central Panhandles (Amarillo to Guymon area, or east of that line) and that will put the west in the line of critical fire weather. Just along that dryline will be the best chances for an isolated storm or two to fire off. The steering flow will likely take any storm that forms off the dryline and will likely move over an area of strong CIN (capped) and therefore will struggle to survive. But just along that dryline, there's about 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE available to get at least a high based supercell to start up. Dry air in the mid levels would support a larger hail threat in addition to the sheared environment. But due to the limited CAPE the hail threat will range from a penny to a half dollar (0.75" - 1.25"). Will note that if a storm can fire off more behind the dryline the higher base, and more DCAPE will be available, adding the potential wind threat. Winds could gusts as high as 65 mph, but more likely we'll be seeing sub severe wind gusts along and east of the dryline. As noted earlier further west winds will be 20-30 mph and RH values in the low teens to single digits, which will support critical Fire Weather. An RFW will continue for the noted areas, and will be open to expanding it further east in the central Panhandles if the dryline should push further east in the early afternoon.

Wednesday night the dryline will not retreat much as a lee surface low in southeast CO will hold it fairly steady off the Caprock. This will surge east out of the Panhandles by late morning as the upper level trough axis moves closer. Very warm and dry air will be in place behind the dryline, and as a result it looks like we'll have widespread critical fire weather. Relative humidity might get as low at 5% in some areas and winds sustained 20 to 30 mph will be possible. While it's not a very strong front, we do see a cold front wind shift out of the north on Thursday evening. The main upper trough of cooler air will linger in the northern CONUS while a more zonal flow sets up over the souther area.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

On Friday arm zonal flow will remain over the Panhandles but surface gradients will be on the weaker side, so while it will be dry and warm, the over all conditions should just be elevated when it comes to Fire Weather. Friday night into Saturday looks to have a return of the dryline to the central Panhandles, but on Saturday it's expected to curl out of the Panhandles, but the OK Panhandle may still be in play and line up with a cold front in KS. While pops are low ~20%, this would support a chance of showers and storms. Sunday off to the west an upper trough that moves across the Las Vegas NV area Saturday evening will be on approach, and this will bring with it another surge of warm dry air and likely widespread critical Fire Weather as the dryline looks to be well off to the east. Additionally, we'll have a well stacked jet aloft and so it would be looking at wind highlight potential along with the critical Fire Weather. High pressure will rebuild over the Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday, and we'll continue to monitor the Panhandle for elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Watching KAMA for MVFR cigs as low clouds are tracking in just to the east of KAMA. Given how fast the low clouds are moving, will go with a prevailing low cloud deck through at least 17z but it could last longer as some models don't mix the dryline east until closer to 21z. KGUY may even need some low clouds as well, but not so sure about KDHT. Winds will be the main story out of the south to southwest in the 15-20kt range gusting 25-30kts starting in the 14-17z time frame. Winds from now through about 14z we will be more in the 10-15kt range out of the southeast.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Dryline setup today in the central Panhandles will lead to the western area having RH values down around 10 percent with wind 15 to 20 mph and that sets up RFTI's in the 3 to 4 range. Given the transition fuels or cured fuels in the west, Red Flag Warnings will continue for the western two stacks of counties.

Thursday the dryline will push all the way out of the area and with sustained winds 20-30 mph as well as RH values down in the single digits, do expect that RFTI's will range 5-7, with isolated 8s possible, mainly this is for the southern Panhandles, as the north would still be breezy, but closer to the center of the surface low and therefore may only have RFTI's of 3-5.

Elevated to critical Fire will continue on a day to day basis, with the main concern being Sunday a the next strong wind day as RFTI's are looking to be 4-6 right now as we have another stacked jet setup potentially in the works. Otherwise we'll likely be elevated on all other days with this pattern we area in.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003.