textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Potentially damaging winds are expected behind a cold front this morning, leading to reduced visibility due to blowing dust and difficult travel conditions.

- The strong winds and low relative humidity will support critical fire weather conditions behind the front.

- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are expected to be present by Monday morning.

- Warming trend will look to follow with potential for record highs late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Latest satellite imagery continues to track the incoming upper- level trough and associated cold front with observations at around 9:30 PM CDT having the front about mid-way through Wyoming. This front is expected to intensify as it approaches the Northern Panhandles around 5 to 6 pm this morning. Behind this front, latest CAMs have continue to show a very strong 500 mb jet with speeds peaking at over 100kt. Where CAMs have deviated however, is in the mid to low levels of the atmosphere. Currently the latest runs have see a slight shift in the jet streaks in those levels with strongest points now settling east of us. Still, the presence of this front and these jet will be more than enough to see strong northerly winds Sunday morning and afternoon with current ensembles even giving us a 50 to 60% chance of seeing gust greater than 60 mph. Given this a High Wind Warning is present for the entire Panhandles from 7 am through 7 PM.

Such strong winds are going to come with a slew different problems. The first of these being the potential to see blowing dust throughout most of the day. Currently with the expected wind direction, most blowing dust will likely be more centered on localized locations. However, the Eastern Panhandles may have chances to experience a much heavier impact from blowing dust thanks to the burn scar from the recent fire in Beaver County. Regardless a Blowing Dust Advisory is also in place for the Panhandles through 7 PM as well. The second of these problems, is going be more focused on fire weather. As it stands latest CAMs have continue to trend to very poor overnight RH recovery with present observations still below 15%. This will keep the Panhandles very dry behind the cold front with RH values sitting between 15 to 20% for the day. Thankfully the much cooler temperatures following behind the front should reduce ignition chances. Regardless a Red Flag Warning will be present from 7 AM this morning and last until 8 PM that night. After which, concern will then shift to the cold temperature as Monday morning lows look to be in the teens to 20s with wind chill nearing single digits. Otherwise, quieter and cooler weather looks to follow Monday afternoon with highs only reach into the mid to low 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Beyond the frontal passage Sunday, weather begins to quiet down and heat up thanks to a building upper-level high pressure system in the Southwestern United States. This high will see temperatures quickly rebound with afternoon high temperatures Tuesday back in the mid to upper 70s. Model agreement looks to have this pattern hold through most of the week with temperature only getting hotter and hotter. Potential is even present for afternoon highs to reach into the 90s as early Thursday with both Friday and next Saturday seeing chances at record high temperatures. Unfortunately, fire weather concerns will stay present under these hot and dry conditions. However, these conditions may only be elevated thanks to winds staying relatively quite for the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong cold front will move through this morning and very strong northerly winds will follow it. Expecting peak winds to be 30-35 kts with gusts up to around 50-53 kts at each terminal. Reduced visibility due to blowing dust is expected, but there is uncertainty regarding how thick the blowing dust will be, thus how reduced the visibility will be. Amendments will be needed once this becomes clear. Winds will weaken this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Despite cooler temperatures, dry and very windy conditions will promote critical fire weather across the Panhandles starting early this morning. Poor overnight recovery of RH values will result in minimum RH values of 15-20%. These values will combine with north winds of 35-45 mph and gusts of 55-60+ mph to create RFTIs of 3-5 for much of the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Driest conditions are forecast further west across the Panhandles, while stronger winds are forecast further east. Regardless, the strong winds and gusts will be the main component for promoting dangerous conditions and potential fire spread this afternoon. Any fires on the landscape ahead of the cold front this morning could become highly resistant to control as the front moves through with rapid spread to the south.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020- 317.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.