textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Moderate chance (50-70%) for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Very low (<5%) chance for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds being main threat.

- Further moderate chance (50-70%) for additional afternoon and evening thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Potential for all hazard severe thunderstorms for both days.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A weather system is impacting the southern plains, including the panhandles, and will continue to do so through the rest of the work week.

Today the main portion of the weather system lies to the west still mainly over the desert southwest. This position will cause a broadly southerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the region. This flow has brought the panhandles Gulf moisture that was sitting across western Texas and eastern NM. This is most prominently seen in the low level cloud deck that has actively spread across much of the panhandles. This cloud bank is important for today's weather as it is acting as a cap for the low level moisture. The weather system is splitting off a small trough that is traveling Northeast passing across the panhandles this afternoon and evening. The passage of this trough will cause mid level destabilization across the panhandles providing some lift. Further lift will be provided by the upper level jet that is causing broad scale diffluence across the region. These will most likely provide 1000-2000 J/Kg of mid level CAPE across mainly the southern Texas panhandles. The rest of the panhandles will most likely have less than 1000 J/Kg of available CAPE. This instability will allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to form during the passage of the trough during the afternoon and evening. These storms would form in the west during the early afternoon and move generally northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Owing to the low cloud deck causing stable and cooler surface conditions these storms will be elevated in nature. While there will be some shear present across the panhandles the elevated nature of the expected thunderstorms will prevent most of it from being utilized. Still some organization of the storms looks likely with cluster to lines being the most probable storm modes. This introduces a very low (5%) chance for strong to severe storms to develop with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. The southwestern Texas panhandles is the most likely area to see these stronger storms if any form at all. A wildcard would be if the low level cloud deck does not suppress the environment as much as currently forecasted. If this is the case then it is possible for storms to become surface based and much stronger overall. Such a storm would also be capable of producing all hazards. Still this is a remote chance (<1%) but cannot be ruled out given the current satellite image showing a weaker cloud bank. These storms will either push east out of the area or come to an end by the later evening hours wrapping up this round of thunderstorms. For the overnight into Thursday morning a low level bank of clouds will stay across the whole of the panhandles. There is the potential for some patchy fog to form under the cloud bank during the early morning hours of Thursday. Some light precipitation may occur from the low cloud bank through the overnight and morning hours.

Thursday the weather system shifts further eastward leading to the next round of rain showers and thunderstorms. This will start off with the dissipation of the low level cloud bank during the later morning hours of Thursday. This will allow for surface heating across the panhandles that will allow for the rain showers and thunderstorms to be surface based. The surface based environment opens up higher levels of CAPE with 1500 to 2500 J/Kg. More crucially it also opens up shear of 20 to 40 kt which can lead to more organized thunderstorm updrafts. What this means is that the thunderstorms on Thursday have the potential to be stronger with rotating updrafts. This would allow for all hazards of tornados, large hail, and damaging winds from any severe storm that forms. The big item holding back the chances for the storm formation is the lack of larger scale forcing. The upper level jet moves to the northeast lessening its influence while the weather system keeps the most of its forcing eastward of the panhandles. This should serve to lessen the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms that do form on Thursday. The best chances for storms, and stronger storms, will be in the northwestern panhandles where there the overall forcing is better. The storms are most likely to form during the afternoon hours in the western panhandles. They would then move eastward across the panhandles departing or dissipating during the evening hours. This would leave generally calm weather conditions for Thursday night going into Friday morning.

Both today and Thursday will be generally cooler days but with a general warming trend. This will see highs mainly in the 60s today increasing to highs in the 60s and 70s for Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Friday the weather system is still impacting the southern plains and the panhandles as it main axis moves across the region. This has a high chance of setting up a dry line scenario within the panhandles. The big question is exactly where this dry line will setup as this will dictate how much of the panhandles is impacted by thunderstorms. Currently the most likely area for the dry line to setup is starting in the central panhandles during the morning with it migrating to the eastern panhandles by the afternoon. This dry line would act as the forcing mechanism to spawn rain showers and thunderstorms. The environment along and east of the dry line will most likely have high CAPE and shear values. This would allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to form that can become organized into supercells. If supercells form they would support all hazards of tornados, large hail, and damaging winds. These storms are most likely to form during the afternoon hours and then move eastward out of the panhandles during the evening hours.

Saturday the weather system will be departing the region but still has a moderate chance of producing rain showers and thunderstorms across much of the panhandles. The remains the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms for Saturday as well.

The start of next work week seems more likely to have a dirty ridge across the southern plains. This would bring much lower but not zero chance for further rain showers and thunderstorms.

For mid next week there is building confidence that a further weather system will bring active weather to the panhandles. This would most likely be in the form of afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Given that this is spring the passage of a weather system can bring the threat of severe weather.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

All sites are expected to remain VFR for the next few hours now that thunderstorm activity has transitioned east. Ceilings are expected to decrease once again tonight, allowing MVFR conditions to prevail at all sites through much of the period. Even IFR ceilings are likely at KAMA and KGUY later tomorrow morning. Some mist and drizzle cannot be ruled out either, but fog is less likely as long as cloud bases remain higher than 500 ft AGL. Tomorrow afternoon, ceilings are expected to rise and cloud coverage will disperse some. VFR conditions should return near the end of the 00Z TAF period.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.