textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Record high temperatures are likely across the Panhandles Monday, and Christmas Day.

- Abnormally warm temperatures combined with dry air and breezy winds will create elevated fire weather conditions much of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Observational data this morning shows inconsequential zonal flow aloft atop the High Plains, leading to another dry and quiet day. Tomorrow, the Panhandles will see yet another obnoxiously warm December afternoon as an area of high pressure clips us from the south. Stronger flow passing over the Rockies will be enough for a weak sfc low to develop over eastern Colorado, leaving a tighter pressure gradient over the central to southern Texas Panhandle. Downsloping westerly winds of 10-20 mph in conjunction with warming 850mb temps will lead to record warmth in the upper 70s to low 80s. Amarillo will have a 90% chance to break the previous record of 75, Dalhart will have a 30% chance to break their record of 78, and Borger will have an 80% chance to break their previous record of 76, all set back in 1955. This warm, breezy, and dry forecast will support elevated fire weather conditions wherever winds are highest and grasses are most receptive.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

It certainly isn't beginning to feel a lot like Christmas this week for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Every day this work week will feature abnormally warm temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. As the core of high pressure shifts eastward over the Lone Star State Tuesday, a weak front will drop over the northern Panhandles. The cool down to follow will be minimal, but should be enough to prevent record highs from being broken. For Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, broad southwest flow aloft will resume and so will breezy downsloping winds at the sfc. Warm air advection will once again favor near record temperatures, especially for Christmas day. The southern and eastern Panhandles will have 40-80% probabilities to exceed 80 degrees on Christmas, and elevated fire weather conditions may materialize.

Beyond the holiday, ensemble guidance shows we may have a pattern change approaching this weekend towards the New Year, but model confidence remains low. Should weather systems find their way to the region Dec 26 onward, cooler temperatures and perhaps even precipitation chances may return with them. Current model runs show a return to near normal temperatures behind a front next Sunday, with meager 15-20% chances for precipitation if we manage to not get dry slotted.

Harrel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR conditions continue through the 00Z TAF period. Winds at the surface will stay breezy through the whole period at nearly all sites. GUY may experience lighter winds compared to the other two sites; however, low level wind shear may be present at the terminal later tonight. LLWS mentions have been made in the TAF to account for these changes. Tomorrow, breezy west-southwesterly winds will prevail through the rest of the 00Z period.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.