textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- This afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are forecasted with a low chance for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, tornados, and heavy rain. - Friday and Saturday further thunderstorms are forecasted for the afternoon and evening each day. Low chance for severe storms that can produce large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles for today and Friday bringing daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms.

For today the weather system has spread ample low level moisture across the panhandles. This moisture is taking the form of a large bank of low clouds that is currently resting across the whole of the panhandles. With daytime heating the bank of clouds is slowly rising and scattering in a west to east fashion across the panhandles. This bank of clouds is providing cooler and more stable conditions which is lowing the chance for the later expected rain showers and thunderstorms. This is having greater impact than normal as there is little in the way of forcing today. So the suppression of heating plays heavily into reduction of thunderstorm formation across much of the panhandles. With the clouds dissipating first in the west this area will have longer to receive heating and thus be more unstable compared to the eastern panhandles. As such the western panhandles can develop CAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg with there being the chance for even higher CAPE. The eastern panhandles will most likely see more modest CAPE values of 1250 to 1750 J/Kg. If the cloud bank holds on for longer then it would directly lead to lower CAPE values thus holding back later thunderstorms. But as said earlier there is little in the way of forcing across much of the panhandles to trigger the start of thunderstorms. So this means that while the atmosphere can easily support thunderstorms it just cannot form the thunderstorms in the first place. Still, there are some areas that could provide forcing to get the thunderstorms going. The first is in the NW panhandles where some forcing from the weather system is likely to move through this afternoon. This makes this area the most likely to see thunderstorms later today. In the southern TX panhandle there are indications that a subtle wave will pass through providing the forcing to get thunderstorms going. Still it is questionable of how far to the north this wave could provide forcing to get the thunderstorms going.ve will pass with it being possible for its convection to remain south of our portion of the TX panhandle. The last one is differential heating on the western edge of the clouds which can act as boundary that can provide the forcing to spawn thunderstorms. The most likely time for the thunderstorms to form will be later this afternoon with them persisting into the evening before they depart of dissipate. For today there is shear present across much of the panhandles with it ranging from 20 to 40 kt. This shear combined with forecasted instability will allow for storms to become organized. This introduces a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with better chance for such storms in the western panhandles where conditions are most unstable. The threat for tornadic storms is best in the NW panhandles as this area will have the highest shear for the afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing all types of hazards including tornados, large hail, and damaging winds. Additional the strong to severe storms will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall. This could be an issue if they impact any of the numerous recent burned areas from wildfires as those areas will be far more prone to flash flooding or debris flows than normal. Going into tonight the low level cloud bank will in large reform across much of the central and eastern panhandles. Once again fog to light drizzle can occur underneath this cloud bank for the overnight and morning hours of Friday.

Friday the weather system shifts to the east setting up a surface low that will pass mainly to the north of the panhandles. Still as the surface low moves to the east it will push a cold front southward across the northern portions of the panhandles during the early afternoon. This will then be countered by another surface low feature spinning up in NM that will pass into the panhandles during the afternoon. This bring a complex interaction for the panhandles that will dictate the extent and severity of the afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. This first front will dictate heavily how far north the rain showers and thunderstorms form. So the further south it sinks the less likely the northern panhandles will see thunderstorms. The second low feature will act as the forcing mechanism that will spawn the expected rain showers and thunderstorms. As this system moves into northeastward it will likely start thunderstorms in the later afternoon in NM to the western panhandles. Further thunderstorms will develop across the panhandles during the late afternoon and evening as the system transition the older cold front into a warm front. This will setup a meso-convective system that will then pass eastward across the remaining panhandles departing into OK proper during by the overnight hours. As for the environment it will be a mixed bag depending heavily on the morning cloud cover. The sooner the cloud cover dissipates the higher the heating that will take place and thus a more unstable environment. Right now it seems most likely for 1500 to 2500 J/Kg with a lesser chance for higher CAPE. Shear will be trickier with the potential for multiple surface boundaries that can provide locally higher shear values. For now broadly speaking 20 to 45 kt seems most likely while still allowing for locally higher spots. This will allow for more organized storms to develop opening up the chance for severe weather. Since this event seems to be forced by a small surface low this makes it more likely for the storms to be in the form of multicells to linear convection. Still it cannot be ruled out that supercells will form ahead of the main meso-convective system. Thus the most likely hazards will be large hail and damaging winds with a lesser chance for tornados. Heavy rain can occur with any of the strong to severe thunderstorms. This could be an issue if they impact any of the numerous recent burned areas from wildfires as those areas will be far more prone to flash flooding or debris flows than normal. This whole event on Friday remains very complicated and thus it is subject to significant changes from multiple variables. So take this day with a grain of salt and keep up with future forecasts.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Saturday the weather system continues to impact the panhandles with the main axis of the system passing across and then east of the panhandles. This would bring another round of afternoon to evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. These storms would most likely form in NM to CO and then pass eastward across the panhandles. The timing of the storms is them beginning in the mid afternoon and ending or departing during the evening. The dynamics are looking favorable that strong to severe thunderstorms can develop during this time. Right now the main threat would be large hail and damaging winds with a lesser threat for Tornados.

Sunday and Monday are still looking favorable for more of a dirty ridge to sit across the southern plains. This would bring a decrease in the chances for afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Still it seems more likely than not that a low chance for these will remain over the panhandles.

Going into mid next week another weather system remains likely to pass across the southern plains. This brings the chance for further rounds of daily rain showers and thunderstorms to the panhandles. Given the time of year and the way the system is shaping up severe weather is possible with this storm system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

An active first few hours at all TAF sites as a line of storms in the northwest Panhandles will likely bring TSRA to KDHT and KGUY over the next few hours. Most isolated storms in the southwest give lower confidence to KAMA, and therefore have only PROB30 at the moment. MVFR/IFR possible conditions later tonight as storms move through and low clouds linger through about 15 to 18z, in which we should return VFR thereafter. KAMA, does show concerns of prolonged -DZ from 9z through 14z. Don't anticipated visibility to fall below a mile at any site and get fog, but that's always a possibility when ample rainfall occurs, so conditions could be lower than forecast in the 09-15z time period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.