textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

-Daily chances of strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds possible today through Sunday.

-Localized flooding from heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Much of the Panhandles will see modest precipitation chances this afternoon when scattered storms are expected to develop. As upper level ridging becomes de-amplified through the day, a minor shortwave is progged to pass over the Panhandles, with a swath of 700mb theta-e set to advect northwards atop much of the region in tandem. As daytime heating pushes high temperatures in the 80s, modest 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE will materialize as 40s dew points are spread northward by the breezy south winds, in the presence of 20-40 kt shear. CAMs depict an area of low-level convergence along a surface low being the focal point for initial convective development, which currently favors the northwest half of the forecast area in the afternoon, with activity moving eastwards through the evening hours (30-50% POPs). Even with improved deep- layer moisture for much of the Panhandles, forecast soundings keep the low levels relatively dry where storms are likely to develop (30s to low 40s dew points). This would be supportive of DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, suggesting downburst wind gust potential. Hail >1" in diameter would be a lesser threat, but still in play with any of the strongest storms. Rainfall totals aren't expected to amount to much, but there are 10-40% probabilities for >0.2" of rain especially north and west of the Highway 60 corridor.

On Friday, A deep upper level low currently observed off the Pacific coast of California will send southwest flow to the Southern Plains. The first wave of moisture with an attendant shortwave disturbance will arrive during the afternoon hours, as a frontal boundary is likely to stall in the vicinity of the northern TX & OK Panhandles. Hi-res guidance places higher surface dew points in the 40s & 50s, 500- 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, and 0-6km shear of 20-30kts along and south of the boundary. Storms would tend to develop along and north of the boundary, but we will have to wait and see exactly where this feature is ultimately positioned. Current NBM POPs of 40-80% may be too high given this spatial uncertainty, but storm coverage depicted by some CAMs could somewhat justify these values. A low- end severe storm threat would be plausible, especially with the improved parameter space along the boundary. Heavy rain leading to localized flooding is another hazard to keep an eye on, especially if training thunderstorms take place.

Given the continued influx of moisture anticipated Fri night into Saturday morning (due in large part to a strengthening LLJ), additional scattered showers & storms cant't be ruled out across the area (~50-70% POPs). However, some models show a lull in the action during this time frame, which could have implications on severe storm potential later Saturday afternoon.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The next round of better storm potential looks to materialize Saturday afternoon-evening, when a stronger 250mb jet streak should lift atop the region. Depending on how well the atmosphere can recover from Friday night and Saturday morning's hypothetical activity, we could see some strong to severe storm development favoring the Texas Panhandle. Probabilities for adequate severe parameters are rather low though, with only about a 20% chance for MUCAPE >500 J/kg along with >30kt bulk shear. Many meteorological signs point to this potentially unfolding as a heavy rain event moreso than a severe event, especially if precipitation and cloud cover linger across the Panhandles earlier in the day. Both flooding and severe storm threats could still realistically be present later in the day. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles and high PWATs depicted by forecast soundings hint that ingredients may be more utilized towards efficient rain production, rather than severe storms. If any severe storms should develop, all hazards could be possible, even if storms congeal into a QLCS as depicted by recent runs of the RRFS. More organized storms would further support the heavy rain and localized flooding threat, with 20-50% chances for localized rainfall totals >1".

Once this system departs, dry air will eventually filter back in to the region and shunt the bulk of moisture east of the Panhandles. Before this fully takes place, another wave of moisture could reside across our eastern counties Sunday afternoon, bringing 10-30% storm chances (which could be strong to severe), before quickly exiting into western Oklahoma. Monday will be warm, windy, and dry leading to potential fire weather concerns for any areas that don't receive beneficial rainfall before then. Long range model guidance shows additional weather systems heading our way through next week, but most if not all of these projections favor dry and mild conditions for a majority of the CWA.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Winds will stay breezy out of the south at 10-20 kts throughout the period, with gusts of 25-30 kts this afternoon. Increasing winds off the deck may pose some marginal LLWS concerns tonight, mainly at KGUY, but the breezier surface winds should mostly negate that threat. We will keep an eye on storm potential towards the end of the period this afternoon, which may require some PROB30 groups primarily for KGUY and KDHT in later TAF issuances. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail for a majority of the period.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.