textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon and evening, with wind gusts possibly approaching 50 mph, particularly in the northwestern Panhandles. - Low temperatures Friday night are forecast to dip below freezing in portions of the combined Panhandles and may lead to frost or freeze products being issued.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue through the night tonight and through the morning, with the southeastern Texas Panhandle holding onto precipitation chances a little bit longer, lasting into the afternoon.

Currently, a cutoff low is analyzed over Colorado. As the day progresses, the low will travel east and be ingested by a strong upper-level trough over the Central Plains. A surface low positioned over the TX/NM border will also be moving inline with the aforementioned cutoff low, though it will have a more northeasterly trajection, bringing it through the Panhandles. A cold front associated with the surface low will begin to move in and through the area today. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions, particularly as we go into the overnight Thursday night.

A strong pressure gradient will exist behind the cold front and an associated LLJ with 40-50kt winds will drive breezy conditions at the surface. We will be considering wind advisories for at least portions of the northwest combined Panhandles.

Thursday's high temperatures look to peak in the low to mid 60s in the northern and western portions of the Panhandles, while the southestern corner of the TX Panhandle will peak near 70. Thursday night, the northern and western Panhandles look to have low temperatures bottom out in the mid 30s to low 40s while the southeastern corner of the TX Panhandles drops to the mid 40s.

Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A strong upper-level trough will continue progressing off to the east, with a ridge building in behind it. Temperatures look to stay quite cool Friday with high temperatures in the mid 50s across the combined Panhandles. Friday night's low temperatures may approach freezing temperatures and may even dip into the upper 20s in the northern and northwestern Panhandles, frost and freeze products may be needed. As the ridge builds in and a cutoff low moves over the Southwest US, we are expecting temperatures to gradually warm up through the weekend and into next week.

The upper-level ridge looks to stick with us through the next week, though some operational models want to initialize a shortwave trough over Colorado putting us in a favorable location Sunday night and Monday for some precipitation. However, the other models do not agree with this solution, and a lot of variables remain unsettled. We will be watching this over the next few days and adjust the forecast as needed.

Midweek next week, a deep trough off the Pacific Coast will begin to move over the Western US and move east. Exact impacts are not known at this time, however, it is another weather system we will watch over the several days to see how it progresses.

Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Low ceilings and visibility concerns expected to continue for the next few hours at all TAF sites as they are at LIFR or below. These conditions are expected to improve overnight and into the morning ultimately leading to VFR conditions. Breezy winds out of the north look to dominate in the afternoon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013.

Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ010-014-015- 019-020.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ001- 002.