textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Possible thunderstorms this evening. Some of which will have the possibility of becoming severe.

- Extreme heat expected on Wednesday with CWA wide triple digits, and areas such as PDC reaching up to 110 degrees.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday. Chances for severe thunderstorms are still uncertain, but seem low at this time.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Persistent SW surface flow will increase high temperatures today into the 90's across the combined Panhandles. This afternoon into this evening, there is a low chance for thunderstorm development. Convective initiation will likely be isolated in nature, as there is a clear lack of forcing mechanisms other than reaching convective temperatures. Effective shear values of 40+ kts and ML CAPE anywhere from 1000-2000 J/kg (higher swath through the NE Panhandles). Although these conditions look most likely to be met in the east, if temperatures overachieve through the central (and less likely the western), convective initiation could shift west accordingly. Therefore, if a storm is able to initiate by reaching convective temperatures, parameters are in place for them to become severe with golf ball sized hail and up to 70 mph wind gusts. Steering vectors in the far northeast CWA have shifted slightly more southeasterly, which could push any storms that fire there out of our area rather quickly.

On Wednesday, 850 mb temperatures range from 31-37C across the Panhandles. Continued southwest flow overnight, and compressional heating ahead of a cold frontal passage on Thursday morning all point toward a very hot day. Triple digit temperatures are expected CWA wide, with PDC currently forecasted to reach around 110F. Areas within the Canadian river valley could also see upper 110's on Wednesday. The signal for moisture to dampen high temperatures is weak, but still possible. Especially in the SE TX Panhandle where moisture is likely to hold on the longest.

A cold front extending from the great lakes through the Panhandles will push from N to S overnight Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring with it a N wind shift and breezy conditions. This will shuffle in cooler temperatures for Thursday, with highs expected to range from the low 80's to low 90's. Although forcing is still very questionable along the remnants of what was the cold front the night before, there is the chance for showers and possible thunderstorms in the SE CWA on Thursday evening and into the overnight. Although current guidance suggests ML CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range along our very southeastern extent (possibly shifting south of our forecast area), bulk shear is displaced to the north. The uncertainty with the displacement of severe parameters and very questionable forcing leaves a bit of uncertainty for Thursday evening/night.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

An upper-level trough begins to propagate toward the west coast of the US as we enter the long term. Where past runs had this trough much further south and ejecting over the Panhandles, it has trended further north, keeping the Panhandles under a ridging pattern.

This will allow temperatures to build back Friday and Saturday, before the ridge flattens out and allows for shortwave perturbations to create thunderstorm chances to close out the weekend. Long range models still favor a dry mid-level environment, however, this has begun to favor the western CWA. Therefore, with shortwave troughs in zonal flow being our forcing mechanism for surface responses, this could set up a pattern where we see thunderstorm chances over the eastern half of the CWA and dry conditions across the western half on Sunday.

There is a signal for a weak boundary to push through Sunday with that weather maker, likely cooling things off to begin next week.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As of this afternoon all terminals where reporting VFR conditions with skies relatively clear. However, potential is present to see thunderstorms develop later this evening in the Eastern Panhandles with potential to see these storm strengthen into severe thunderstorms. Currently latest CAMs are trending towards any storm development having very little chance of impacting the terminals with only the NAM3KM having an isolated storm getting within the vicinity of KAMA. Given this have chose to leave mention of any storms out of the current package. Moving into the overnight does see a low-level jet set up, which could result in some low-level wind shear for the overnight. However, present model sounding are seeing good chances of these winds bleeding down, which may result in 30kt gust at the surface instead. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold over the next 24 hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ012>015- 017>020.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.