textproduct: Amarillo
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
- Dry and warm conditions expected thru the week.
- Next chance of precipitation appears early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Evening water vapor imagery showing dry air from the Tennessee Valley westward through the southern plains and into the southwestern U.S. Mid level high pressure extends from the mountain west southeastward towards the lower MS Valley. Subsidence...dry air...and light winds all point towards a quiet but warm week. Expecting high temperatures over roughly the western third of the panhandles to be in the lower 80s while the central and eastern panhandles will see temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Faster flow aloft is north of the border and over the northeastern US. Despite the quiet pattern over our area there will be important changes taking place to the large scale pattern by the weekend which will lead to the next chance of precipitation early next week.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Long range global models are showing the development of a tropical system in the Gulf and a developing trough taking shape over the western CONUS. The GFS wants to keep this trough more compact while the ECMWF wants to evolve the trough into a much deeper low over the Great Basin thus promoting a southwesterly flow aloft impinging on the southern plains. The GFS solution is showing a much stronger zonal flow across our area as the trough moves east in response to the next shortwave trough entering the west coast. Since this is still a week away confidence is low in regards to choosing any particular solution at this time. However these systems evolve this trough will likely bring the next chance of rain into the southern plains.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
VFR conditions expected thru the period with no significant weather expected. Winds will be generally south to southwesterly at 6-9kt.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None. OK...None.
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