textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot temperatures and strong to severe thunderstorms expected for Independence Day.

- Warm temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, followed by hot temperatures to close out the week.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will continue through the next 7 days, but the storm coverage will vary from day to day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

While storms are expected along highway 60, most areas north and west of the highway, in the drier area, may be looking at temperatures in the 102-107 range, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for the western and central Panhandles. Areas to the east should be limited as storms develop along the highway corridor in the late afternoon, the cloud shield should limit additional heating.

Ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners area this weekend, but we do have a trough over the midwest and some subtle impulses in the northwest flow over the Panhandles. A surface low is also expected to set up with a fairly strong boundary of convergence right along highway 60 today. With ample heating from the ridge and decent mid level moisture along that highway corridor, the setup for scattered storms will be in play today. Storms will certainly have the capability of being severe, as an inverted V setups with high based storms and ample DCAPE will favor wind as the primary threat, but there will certainly be enough CAPE and moderate shear to support the potential for large hail. PWAT's around 1-1.2" will support moderate to heavy rainfall, but storms should develop along the boundary and track east at a reasonable pace, so the concern for flooding is very limited at this time. Overall, storm timing today looks to start around 4-7 PM, with the earliest being 1-2 PM, and they should finish in the 9-11 PM time range.

While the main show of storms were noted in the previous paragraph, another wave is expected to trigger storms off the mountains late in the evening, and should bring storms into the western Panhandles tonight during the overnight period. It does look like they will be isolated to the west, but will not rule out another round making it's way down to Amarillo in the 2-7 AM time frame.

Sunday it looks like there will be a boundary set up from Pueblo down to the west portion of the Panhandles and another round of storms looks to develop along that boundary and should track southeast into the western Panhandles in the mid to late afternoon, and may even track into the central and eastern Panhandles if the storms can hold together through the evening. There is a low chance for storms to be severe with the wind again being the main concern with any storms.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

As we head into the extended the ridge continues to strengthen and we will gradually warm back up into the 100s by mid to late in the week. We will also be dealing with the surface boundaries and subtle impulses that could allow for showers and storms each day. Right now there's a lot of uncertainty as to where the boundary will be each day, and that will lead to moderate uncertainty as to just what areas will or wont get precipitation each day, but the trend is to go warmer each day with hot temperatures Wednesday through Friday, and it's reasonable that daily chances of storms will be in play, but the locations are very much uncertain.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms will be possible in Amarillo later this afternoon and potentially into the early evening, and another round of thunderstorms will be possible tonight for Dalhart. Strong downdrafts will be possible with any thunderstorm. There is a very low chance for thunderstorms at Guymon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>004-006>009-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002.