textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Freezing temperatures are expected this morning across the northern and western Texas Panhandle and entire Oklahoma Panhandle. Take action to protect sensitive crops and vegetation.

- Dry and breezy conditions will cause critical fire weather to return to the Panhandles today, as well as other days later this week. Any fires that develop will have the potential to spread rapidly.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

In the wake of a cool, tranquil, April Saturday, we find ourselves right back in the thick of a dry and breezy forecast across the Panhandles to start the week. Northwest flow aloft will be situated atop the region today, allowing a tightening surface pressure gradient to be in place. These factors favor sustained southwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon. Higher gusts can't be ruled out though, especially with the tighter pressure gradient and better downward momentum transfer across the northwestern combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (10- 40% probability for gusts >40 mph). Highs in the 70s and dew points in the teens will make relative humidity values easily plummet to the single digits this afternoon, creating critical fire weather conditions for the entire CWA.

We find little reprieve from breezy conditions on Monday, although peak winds out of the south should be slightly less stiff compared to today (15-25 mph with gusts up to 35). Models depict upper level ridging translating over the Rockies through the day, but also show a broad low-amplitude trough impinging upon the Southern Great Plains. Southerly low to mid-level winds ahead of this feature will also aid modest moisture advection to the High Plains and Big Country of west Texas, which at the very least should serve to reduce the fire weather threat for much of the area. The northern Panhandles will unfortunately still be dry and breezy enough for at least elevated fire weather conditions. Further south, the combination of subtle upper level lift and improved moisture could spell very low rain/storm chances for the southern Texas Panhandle (areas south of I-40). Much to our chagrin, the overwhelming majority of data keeps this disturbance and moisture plume shunted just south of the Panhandle, meaning any probability for precipitation looks to stay around 15-20% or less for our forecast area.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Persistence forecasting is the name of the game for the long term across the Panhandles. Deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily favor incoming systems to "dry slot" the region, leaving warmer, drier, and breezy days ahead with some weak cold fronts occasionally mixed in. Tue-Thu looks to be the warmest stretch of the week with highs in the 80s to low 90s, before we cool back down in the 70s Friday through next weekend behind one of the aforementioned weak cold fronts. Synoptic signals point towards Wed & Thu both being breezy featuring 15-25 mph sustained winds with higher gusts, as well as very low relative humidity values. Solidly critical fire weather conditions would be likely both days should this forecast come to fruition. Until we get meaningful moisture, just about every warm and breezy day will feature an attendant fire weather threat for the foreseeable future.

While a continuation of this dry pattern is certainly favored, there does appear to be a contingency of global models providing a glimpse of storm potential on Wednesday ahead of an approaching system. Current projections place a 500mb low lifting over the Northern Plains Wednesday, drawing a decent swath of mid-level theta-e and Gulf moisture to portions of the region. Based on more bullish models, a stout, deepening surface low to the lee of the Rockies would drape a surface trough/dry line somewhere across a large portion of the southern and central Great Plains, potentially lagging as far west as the eastern Panhandles. The location of this feature will greatly depend on the strength, timing, and track of the system, but there is some potential for it to stay in our CWA. East of this boundary, a warm, moist, unstable sector with favorable shear would support thunderstorm development if upper level support arrives in tandem with these conditions, and if capping is able to erode.

To reiterate, some models place this dry line across our easternmost counties, but we've seen all too often this season that this forecasted synoptic pattern will have a very high chance to keep moisture just to our east, outside of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Either way, we will monitor trends closely for rain/storm potential, as well as any chances for severe storms. Currently, POPs are only ~15% for Wednesday afternoon, quickly diminishing into the evening hours.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hrs. Winds have turned to the south tonight at about 10 kts or less, but will increase this afternoon at 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts possible at KGUY and KDHT.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions return to the combined Panhandles this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to single digits across the vast majority of the forecast area. Wind speeds during the afternoon may get up to 20-30 mph sustained with gusts to 40 mph possible, mainly across our north-northwest counties. The wind direction will primarily be from the southwest and no significant wind shifts are expected. Maximum RFTI values will range from 5-7 across the northern combined Panhandles. Given how early the winds kick up, the critical fire weather window will begin in the late morning and subside in the early evening when wind speeds finally die down.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>004-006-007-011- 012-016-017-317.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020- 317.

OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.