textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the Southwestern Panhandles.

- A warming trend is expected next week that will see most of the Panhandles nearing or over the triple-digits.

- Chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon and evening next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Present model agreement continues to see the upper-level high retreat back over the Southwestern United States thanks to the trough that is currently digging southeast across the Mississippi Valley. For the Panhandles this upper-level pattern has resulted in strong northerly to northwesterly flow over the area. This pattern can be beneficial for the Western Panhandles as it brings enough storm motion to force afternoon storms off the Southern Front Range and into our area. For today, however, present CAMs have seen some decent subsidence moving ahead of the expected development that could inhibit storms actually making into the Panhandles. For most CAMs that still do see something in our area, they are placing it mostly across our far southwest in the hopes of an outflow boundary working alongside out best pocket of instability. Should storms mange to form off this pocket than it would not be impossible to see an isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Presently MLCAPE is around 1000 to 1500 J/kg at its best in this area with upwards of 30 to 40 kts of bulk wind shear. However, DCAPE may be the bigger concern with most CAM soundings producing inverted-v shaped soundings that are putting up values greater 1600 J/kg. This would indicated that winds are the more likely threat for the day with gust upwards of 70 mph not out of the question. Moving into Sunday sees the overall pattern stay similar to today. However, most CAMs are expecting a much stronger surge of drier air that will likely keep chances of storms below 10 percent for the day. Instead look for temperatures to be warming once again after our brief break from the cold front, with afternoon highs back closer to the upper 90s to near triple digits.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

For the start of the new week, most model agreement does see the upper-level high pressure system stay seated over the Southwestern Untied States. However, as the upper-level trough to our east begins to exit further east, most runs do see the high start to elongate back eastwards towards the Panhandles. This elongation will in turn see the Panhandles warm up once again with most of the week seeing high temperatures near or over the triple-digit mark. Monday in particular could see some of our hottest temperatures with current trends suggesting a possible need for heat related products. What may inhibit the spread of this heat Monday, however, is the presence of a weak short-wave that may allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the west. In fact these chances of afternoon activity looks to be a theme for the most of next week with models either suggesting a new short- wave staring activity or storm motion being strong enough to push activity off the mountains. Still these chances are on the low end at around 10 to 20 percent with potential for any meaningful rainfall evening lower than that.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Drier conditions remain the more likely scenario for today and the overnight thanks to some drier air moving in at the upper-levels. However, some CAMS still try to develop new thunderstorms off outflow boundary that could spread into the Western Panhandles later this evening. At this time, these chances look to be on the lower end at around 10 to 20 percent, with any impact to the terminals looking unlikely. Given this have left mention of storms out of the present TAF package with VFR conditions lasting through the next 24 hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.