textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thunderstorms will be possible today. There is a chance for some storms to be severe with large hail being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will be daily from Thursday through Tuesday. Some storms Thursday and Friday could be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

Some fog or mist may occur Thursday morning alongside shower and thunderstorm activity.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

H500 troughing continues through the short term period. Today, H500 winds will strengthen and create upper level forcing for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Low to mid level moisture profiles are strongest further south of the High Plains, though sufficient Theta-E for convection should extend all the way to the Oklahoma Panhandle based off Tuesday's model guidance. Overnight surface winds will veer from northeast to southeast. South to southeasterly wind flow will also aid in moisture transport into our CWA. Tomorrow, theta-e profiles remain generally high across the region. Surface wind flow remains south to southeasterly and measurable QPF remains spread across the combined Panhandles. The highest concentration of rainfall remains forecast to occur tonight through Thursday morning.

00Z CAMs suggest that showers and thunderstorms are more likely to advance from the Southern Plains than off the high terrain in New Mexico. Concerns are still present that pockets of subsidence will exist as showers move into the Panhandle region. This will lend to a more scattered than widespread storm mode; and given the convective nature, not every location will receive equivalent rainfall totals. SBCIN will still be present by the time storms arrive in the early afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to be higher than SBCAPE across the area; therefore, elevated storms are anticipated and inhibition will be overcome since parcels will be lifting above the cap. Steep mid- level lapse rates and sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear will create an environment conditionally favorable for severe storms with hail as the primary hazard. The main weakness to this setup is the lack of quality MLCAPE. Instability will be highest across the southwestern Texas Panhandle with values over 1,000 J/kg possible. Storms that move into this zone will have the highest chance of becoming severe.

Cloud coverage is expected to be extensive across the High Plains today, with little breaks from cover to allow for substantial day time heating. Given these conditions, highs will be below average for this time of year ranging from the 60s to lower 70s. Lows this morning will be in the 40s with some lower 50s likely in the southeastern Texas Panhandle.

Tonight into Thursday morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue though this period. Mesoscale parameters are expected to be unfavorable for night time convection to become severe. Mist and some fog may also be present alongside the shower activity given the moisture through the region. Cloud coverage will remain high through much of the day, but there may be a window of clearing Thursday afternoon from west to east. This will allow highs to reach the 70s and create enough heating for instability to increase. The most recent CAMs display thunderstorms forming off the high terrain once again, but this time holding together as the move east into the Panhandles. Storms tomorrow are expected to be surface based with CAPE values between 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg. The highest effective shear is expected across the northwest combined Panhandles, but favorable SBCAPE and sufficient low and mid-level lapse rates may allow for a the conditional severe threat to exist further south of our northwest zone.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Upper level troughing continues through much of the long term period. High temperatures will steadily return to average values heading into the weekend. Friday to Sunday expect 70s to lower 80s. Monday and beyond current trends suggest we return to the mid 80s. The potential for severe thunderstorms still exits in the east on Friday; however, concerns remain prevalent on dryline placement and how diffuse it may be by the time convective initiation is expected to occur. The NBM remain set on +50% PoPs Saturday afternoon, but as we head into next week, we may see a decline for rain chances across the CWA.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are starting the 12Z TAF period. Starting around 14Z for KAMA and closer to 21-00Z Thursday for KDHT/KGUY, MVFR/IFR cigs expected and will remain so through the remainder of the TAF period. A PROB30 group was added to KAMA at 21Z for TSRA potential. VCSH conditions more likely for KDHT/KGUY between 18Z and 00Z Thursday. Overall winds will be out of the east and southeast at 5-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.