textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms potential for today and Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, but localized flooding can occur.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions potential for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday which will allow for wildfire starts and spread.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Tonight a weather systems continues to move across the region causing a slow moving band of rain showers over the panhandles. This band of rain is mainly light in nature but there a few areas of moderate rainfall. While the chances are very low a rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled within the rain band. This rain band will most likely lead to further accumulations of a few hundreths to a couple tenths of an inch of rainfall. The rain showers should in large remain in the central panhandles but can reach into the eastern panhandles before dissipation. These rain showers will most likely dissipate during the mid morning hours with a low chance to last into the later morning hours. If they manage to persist for the longer period it could interfere with the afternoon convection. This will be mainly from creating a more stable environment that will take longer to destabilize.

For the morning of Saturday cloudy skies will have a high chance of being present across the panhandles. The clouds will starts to break out towards the afternoon hours allowing for destabilization to occur in pockets across the panhandles. The passage of a weather system during the afternoon hours will bring large scale forcing across the panhandles. However the trajectory of this system is not the best for the panhandles and will require daytime heating to maximize thunderstorm amount and intensity. So the cloud cover and morning rain showers will play a large role in dictating the extent and power of the afternoon convection. Still in the areas that show destabilization upwards 1500 to 2500 J/kg of CAPE can be available to full severe thunderstorms. Effective shear may be harder to source depending on the position of the weather system. More favorable weather system position show 20 to 40 kt of effective shear while less favorable weather system positions show 10 to 20 kt of shear. This means the weather system will play a large role in the type of storms we get with the more favorable position allowing for more organized and stronger storms while the less favorable position shows less organization and weaker storms. The most likely time for when the storms will form is for the mid afternoon hours. With such an environment being possible there is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Tornados are not expected for this event but cannot be fully ruled out. Heavy rainfall can occur with the strong to severe thunderstorms but the flood risk will be low and most likely localized if it does occur. The afternoon round of thunderstorms will most likely move west to east across the panhandles. These storms will most likely persist into the overnight hours, although they will weaken going into the evening and overnight. With the eastward movement the storms will most likely depart the panhandles during the very early morning hours of Sunday.

Sunday will most likely be a split day with a dry western half of the panhandles and a more moist eastern half of the panhandles. In between these two halves a fairly diffuse dryline will sit over the eastern portions of the central panhandles. in the western panhandles gusty southwest winds will be blowing which coupled with the drier air will create elevated fire weather conditions. Such conditions will allow for easier wildfire starts and the fast spreading of any wildfire that does start. In the eastern panhandles there is a low chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty as the moisture quality for Sunday afternoon. It is completely possible that there will not be enough which would prevent any thunderstorms from occurring. Still if thunderstorms do manage to form then the environmental instability is such that strong to severe thunderstorms can occur. This is more likely to occur eastward where the moisture quality and instability are greater. It is such that even if storms form in the panhandles it may take them moving into OK proper in the better environment before they become strong to severe. Still the main threats from the severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds. The big question for Sunday will remain is there enough moisture in the panhandles to cause thunderstorms or will they stay to the east in OK proper where the moisture is better.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Monday the previous weather systems depart eastward out of the area while another weather system form over the intermountain west. This would leave the panhandles inbetween system with gusty southwester winds driving in warmer and drier air. This brings the potential for widespread elevated to critical fire conditions across the panhandles. The fire weather conditions will most likely be worst in the western panhandles where the winds will be most likely be the strongest. These fire weather conditions will allow for easier starts and rapid spread of wildfires.

Tuesday and Wednesday will most likely have the weather system eject from the intermountain west and move across the Great Plains. The current trajectory of this system has it swing across the plains north of the panhandles. This would make it most likely for the panhandles to be caught in the dry slot for this weather system leading to little in the way of rain showers and thunderstorms. Still it cannot be ruled out that some moisture makes it way into the far eastern panhandles leading to rain showers and thunderstorms. What is more likely with this weather system is that the winds will be gusty across the panhandles with dry conditions. This will another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles that will allow for easier wildfire starts and rapid spread.

For the end of the week there remains uncertainty about a further weather system moving across the western and central portions of the U.S. Right now the most likely outcome from such a weather system is a repeat of the Tuesday and Wednesday weather system with mainly dry and windy conditions across the panhandles. This would lead to further rounds of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This morning's wave of showers and thunderstorms will have some affect on all TAF sites through 14Z. Though thunderstorm activity is diminishing, showers will continue and could cause MVFR conditions for the next couple of hours. Afterwards, we'll enter a period of VFR in the early afternoon. The next round of thunderstorms will start later in the day, and also has the potential to affect all sites. Conditions may even become IFR at times if a strong cell moves directly over a terminal, but these conditions should be short lived. By 03Z to 06Z, all thunderstorm activity should be coming to an end. Light winds and high clouds will be left in the wake through 12Z Sunday.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.