textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms today with locally heavy downpours and lighting being the main threats.

- Heat wave will build through the week with extreme heat risk anticipated for much of the area by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Showers and storms have dissipated for the most part, although can't completely rule out a pop up shower later tonight or in the morning as a weak s/wv passes through the area from ENE to WSW. Moisture axis remains in place tomorrow and in fact NAM is forecasting PWAT at or above todays observed level of 1.5 inches with similar thermal profiles. That said, there is a negative H5-H3 vort that will be positioned across the northern Panhandle much of the day Sunday this suggests subsidence might be in place at least across the north. Given this expect less coverage of storms on Sunday and despite the favorable moisture, and have limited POPs to 20 percent for potential of isolated storms in the area. The upper levels become slightly more favorable later in the day and activity may also be later than what occurred today. Again, lack of shear and modest CAPE and DCAPE suggest extremely low SVR potential and the Panhandles are not included in any outlook categories. Some very localized heavy downpours will be possible unless the subsidence completely inhibits development. Monday will begin a slow march toward drier and much hotter temps that will impact the area by mid to late week as another easterly wave low passes south of the area and high pressure begins to build into the area from the north. After days of near normal highs, temps Monday will reach the mid to upper 90s areawide.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The H5 high center over the Central Rockies early in the week will drift SE by mid week as an ERN US trough deepens. Forecast 596 DM high center is expected to be near OK by mid week and it should drift west either over the Panhandles or slightly west of the area depending on which model solution you believe. By the weekend, some models even show an impressive 600 DM at the center of this heat dome. This means temperatures will rise through the week, with hottest temps expected late in the week and heading into the weekend as the winds also turn from SSE to more SSW. NBM is indicating widespread 100s with advisory level highs for much of the area during this late week period which makes sense. The one caveat that will have to be watched is models do not agree on the location of a backdoor front over the weekend. If this boundary pushes more into the area, this of course will have implications on the temperature forecast, but for now it appears it will not reach beyond the extreme NE Panhandles. If the ridge backs off enough, there could be potential for thunderstorms late in the week and into the weekend given good H7 moisture axis and very hot temps. Of course the front would be a player in this as well, but for now the heat really is the main story this week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across terminals today. Winds will be light and variable this morning before becoming more out of the south to southeast around 10kts this afternoon. Isolated storms will again be possible but confidence in affecting a specific site is very low and not included in the official forecast at this time. Any storms that develop should occur between 18z and 05z. Winds will be out of the south after 05z around 8kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.