textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Potential for widespread severe thunderstorm chances on Tuesday, with general thunderstorms Wed-Fri.

- Potential Heat Advisory for 105 degree temps for PDC on Tuesday, then small break before near 105 degree temps return for some areas over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Latest 18Z observational data shows the southern Texas Panhandle quickly warming up through the 90s with already 100+ degrees reported in the far SE in Collingsworth County. In particular for the far southern Texas Panhandle, WNW sfc winds again SSW winds has caused a weak sfc convergence boundary. Just some clouds forming, but a very low end chance of a shower in this area cannot be completely ruled out during the peak heating of the day (~10% chance). Further aloft, latest water vapor satellite imagery showing a perturbation moving anti-cyclonically over a dome of high pressure across southern Colorado. This perturbation will help to generate a few storms in the NM/CO high terrain, but with weak steering flow, not much activity may reach the Panhandles. Most likely scenario shows decaying storms along a cold pool or outflow boundary moving into the Panhandles just past sunset where some strong wind gusts will be possible.

Going into Tuesday, the center of the main H500 high as seen by the latest composite data and hi-res numerical data shifts south into southern NM by Tuesday afternoon. This will increase northwesterly steering flow into the Panhandles by Tuesday afternoon. With developing convection along the NM/CO high terrain and/or the eastern NM Plains, thunderstorms have a higher chance of moving through most of the Panhandles through Tuesday evening. Overall environment of 1000 to near 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and DCAPE with inverted-v profiles supports ample energy and momentum for the potential for severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat to watch with potential gusts as high as 70-80 mph. Although mid level lapse rates of 8+ degC/km are expected, one limiting factor for local longevity of storms will be overall effective wind shear. Severe threat of storms should be highest along roughly a line from Beaver to Pampa to Claude points west, with highest chance of a severe wind gusts closest tot he NM state line, especially if H850 jet developing past 00Z Wednesday can assist with longevity of severe storms become they become outflow dominant. A second area to watch on Tuesday ahead of the main activity from NM later on in the day the south central and southeastern Texas Panhandle, along a converging H850 theta-e axis. Added by diurnally driven temperatures where highs in these areas will range from 100-105 degrees, if enough lift from the boundary is present, we could see a few storms with strong wind gusts by Tuesday afternoon. Will watch sfc obs trends closely. OVerall high temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 90s to around 105, especially for Palo Duro Canyon where heat headlines maybe needed.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Depending on any leftover boundaries from Tuesday's storms and/or if the main environment is not worked over enough, overall current POPs for Wednesday could be somewhat overdone. But with similar synoptic pattern for perturbations rounding the main H500 high, we cannot rule out additional storm chances to some degree on Wednesday as well. Repeat rounds of diurnally driven storms should continue throughout the remainder of the work week before drying out once again by the coming weekend. We may even get a break from triple digit high temperatures Wed through Fri, before they return for the up and coming weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

TAFs remain quiet with VFR conditions through this period. Thunderstorm chances tonight are quiet low, with a <15% chance that KDHT alone may be impacted. Amendments will be made if storms in New Mexico manage to overcome the poor environment ahead of them. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, thunderstorm are likely to affect all terminals, but our highest confidence for impacts is after 00Z Wednesday. Mentions of thunder were left out for now, but will be added in the next package.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.