textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Record breaking high temperatures today and Monday may lead to heat illnesses for those that are outside.

- Low chances for showers and storms return to the Panhandles during the next work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Upper level high pressure will set up over the region once again today. To start the day, breezy southwest to west winds will be in place at sunrise along with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. A warm start to the day will aid in leading to temperatures rising to record breaking levels this afternoon. Strong low level WAA today will lead to H850 temperatures in the mid 20s Celsius during peak heating. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds may remain breezy through the entire morning but will decrease going into the afternoon. Given the very dry conditions, elevated fire weather conditions are expected today for most of the area. The influence of the upper level high will remain in place on Monday leading to another day of record breaking high temperatures in the 90s. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible as well as winds will be a bit stronger on Monday afternoon.

Going into late Monday afternoon into the evening, a surface boundary is forecast to set up across the eastern Panhandles. Slightly higher moisture looks to be in place to the east of the boundary and lesser moisture to the west. Good surface convergence may occur and with a very weak shortwave moving across on Monday evening, cannot rule out a few showers or storms attempting to form along the surface boundary. The newest CAMs and a few of the global models are hinting at this solution, but given the lack of good moisture depth, anything that forms will very likely struggle to maintain any strength. Sufficient instability and DCAPE may be present to lead to a low end severe storm threat, but confidence in any storms forming right now is very, very low. Will wait to see more model to model run consistency before adding any mentionable precipitation to the forecast. Another warm night is forecast on Monday night as winds remain breezy out of the south.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

At sunrise on Tuesday, a surface cold front should be racing south across the High Plains. The front is not expected to be as far south as the Panhandles come Tuesday morning, but by mid to late morning it may be entering the Oklahoma Panhandle. How far south this feature gets on Tuesday will play a pivotal role in the type of weather we may see across the CWA. Temperatures across the north may only top out in the lower 70s to upper 60s whereas areas further south may reach the mid 80s for highs. Gusty north to northeast winds are also expected behind the frontal passage, but fire weather conditions are currently not anticipated with surface moisture increasing behind the front. Speaking of moisture, mid level moisture increases on Tuesday leading to more cloud cover than we have seen as of late. If the front does not move all the way through by Tuesday evening, a shower or storm forming along the front cannot be completely ruled out.

The cooler air mass behind the front will remain in place on Wednesday, contributing to cooler temperatures. Cloud cover will also aid in keeping temps cooler during the day. Additionally, PVA associated with a trough may lead to light rain showers developing across the region, with the more likely time frame for that occurring during Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If any showers do develop, only very light rain amounts are expected at this time, with most areas below a tenth of an inch of precip. Temperatures look to rebound on Thursday but a trough developing across the northern tier of the CONUS should keep high pressure suppressed to the south, so record breaking temperatures do not appear likely at this point. Model guidance continues to hint at a potential dryline severe storm setup on Friday, but there are many factors in play that lead to low confidence in a preference of one scenario over the other at this point. There is higher confidence in another cold front propelling southward across the Plains Friday into Saturday which will lead to cooler temperatures going into next weekend.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Dry weather looks to hold for the day with only some scatter to few cloud decks expected to be present over the terminals. Winds at the surface will mostly be out of the southwest this morning, but KDHT and KGUY will likely see them become a bit more variable in the afternoon thanks to a surface low moving over the area. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold for the package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.