textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Thunderstorms continue today across the central and eastern Panhandles with the main threat being heavy rain that can lead to flash flooding.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of next week with the potential for heat illnesses if proper precautions are not taken for those that are doing activities outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A weather system is currently impacting the southern plains including the panhandles today. This weather system has brought ample moisture across the region with PWATs upwards of 1.5 inches. For context this moisture is on the top 10% for this time of year. The moisture is generally higher in the eastern panhandles and lower in the western panhandles. The passage of the weather system is providing ample lift which is allowing rain showers and thunderstorms to form from the ample moisture. These storms will persist through the rest of the afternoon and most of the evening. With such high moisture across the panhandles these thunderstorms will be fully capable of producing heavy to torrential rainfall. Using past days with similar conditions, rain rates from the thunderstorms can be expected to range from 1 inch/hr for weaker storms to past 5 inch/hr for the strongest storms. Adverse travel may occur due to the intense nature of the rainfall leading to low visibilities and wet to flooded roads. Storm motion will most likely be slow today as there is steering flow aloft ill be weak. This is allowing for longer residence time for these storms which means more rain can accumulate in the areas they impact. This opens the door for flash flooding to occur in the panhandles now through the evening. The duration for any single storms will most likely be short as the current environment favors vertically stacking. So flooding will be greatest in areas the see multiple thunderstorms within a fairly short time frame. The vertical nature of the storms also opens the door for storm collapses which will allow for localized wind gusts that can be damaging. These storms will either move off to the east or come to an end during the later evening once the weather system pushes to the northeast. Once this happens the panhandles will finally close the book on this period of heavy rainfall that has been occurring over us for the past week. With all the moisture that has fallen there is a low chance for mist or fog to form tonight into Sunday morning. However the chances for this are currently not high enough to reflect within the forecast.

The weather system will have departed to the northeast by Sunday with a ridge of high pressure building across the southern plains. This will bring hotter conditions to the panhandles through subsidence heating and through warm air advection. This will cause the highs to jump into the 90s for much of the panhandles with the potential for some 100s in the hottest spots. Conditions will become drier as the higher pressure builds across the region. Still there will be some lingering surface to lower mid level moisture from the departed weather system. Even with the more stable conditions the ample heating combined with the lingering moisture will allow for a very low chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Since these will be mainly driven by daytime heating the most likely time of occurrence will be during the afternoon and evening. Once the sun set any storm that managed to form will most likely come to an end. However, the chances for these storms is low enough that they will not be reflected within the current forecast package.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Monday through early Wednesday will most likely have a ridge of higher pressure over the southern plains with a trough across northwestern CONUS. This will promote the transport of warmer and drier surface air across the panhandles during this time. This will be coupled with subsidence heating from the high pressure and sunny skies allowing for ample daytime heating. The sum of all these features will be hot conditions across the panhandles that will see highs in the 90s to 100s. The hottest areas, such as Palo Duro Canyon, have the potential to reach heat advisory levels. There is the potential for some lower mid level moisture to move across the panhandles during this time. While there is little in the way of synoptic forcing the shear ample heat will allow for this moisture to turn into isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Since these storms would be driven by daytime heating the most likely time of occurrence will be the afternoon to evening hours.

Thursday the trough over the northwestern CONUS will more likely than not push out the ridge of high pressure and pass across the southern to mid plains. Currently this has enough warm air advection from southerly winds to still keep the panhandles hot with 90s to 100s highs for Thursday. Still there is the chance for the arrival of this weather system to cool the plains off earlier ending the triple digit heat.

Come Friday and into the weekend the trough will most likely become established across the region drawing in moisture to the southern plains. This will bring a greater potential for rain showers and thunderstorms to the panhandles. Further it would also bring a cooldown bringing an end to the triple digit heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A weather system is impacting the panhandles today causing rain showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms are capable of producing very heavy rainfall that can lead to IFR or worse conditions. Strong gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out with the strongest of the thunderstorms. The most likely terminal to see thunderstorms is KAMA with a lesser chance for KGUY and KDHT. These thunderstorms will continue until the evening hours when the either move off to the east or dissipate. Mist to fog has a very low chance of occurring tonight, this will not be reflected in the current TAFs.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.