textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and then again tomorrow, mainly for the central and western Panhandles.

- After a brief break from fire weather conditions over the weekend, said conditions are likely to return into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Temperatures this afternoon are much cooler than the past 24-48 hours, with current 19Z observations showing widespread upper 40s through mid 50s across the Panhandles. With low RH values, will still have to watch for fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Fire weather conditions expected to continue for the central and western Panhandles on Friday. Southerly winds veering to westerly that will pick up as a mid level perturbation moves over the Panhandles within a well established 150+ kt H250 jet streak moves over the region. This will favor large scale subsidence aloft and coupled with steep sfc-H500 height gradient, the potential for some strong winds (10-15% chance of wind gusts greater than 50 mph) during the day tomorrow, along with low RH values will result in critical fire weather conditions, especially for the central and western combined Panhandles. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 50s in the northern combined Panhandles to lower to mid 60s for the southern TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Thankfully, winds should diminish quite a bit of the coming weekend with winds topping out 10-15 mph by Sunday for the western Panhandles, but should be not too much higher than that. An H500 ridge will begin to build into the southern High Plains to continue to bring dry conditions. Although winds should not be as strong as what we have seen the past few days, low RH values will continue into next week. This could result in RH driven fire weather conditions starting the next work week. High temperatures will be near average over the weekend to well above average for mid to late February as we go into the next work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. A weak cold front is moving across the area and will switch winds to out of the northeast to east for most of the night. Winds will continue to rotate clockwise over the next 24 hours and will eventually be out of the south to west. Winds starting by late morning will be in the 20-30 kt range with gusts potentially upwards of 40 to 45 kts. Scattered mid to high level clouds will move in over the sites during this TAF issuance.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible for the day tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the central and western combined Panhandles for tomorrow. ERC percentile values will range from the 50th percentile in the NW Panhandles to near 80th percentile in the central Texas Panhandle. 20 ft winds will mainly be out of the west at 20-25 mph with higher gusts at times along with min RH values tomorrow afternoon dropping as low as 10 percent. Max RFTI for tomorrow will reach 5-6.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Friday for TXZ001>003- 006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Friday for OKZ001-002.