textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Breezy southwest winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across the northern Panhandles.

- Near record breaking high temperatures are forecast on Sunday and Monday and heat illnesses may result for those that spend a lot of time outside.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Upper level high pressure remains over the southern CONUS this weekend. Even though the high pressure will be over the Panhandles, the cooler air mass behind the frontal passage from yesterday should remain in place. This will lead to temperatures around average for late March, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. A leeside low pressure system should form across eastern Colorado by mid day and winds will be out of the south to southwest over the region today. The strongest winds are forecast to be across the northwestern combined Panhandles and gusts could be upwards of 40 mph this afternoon. Even though relative humidity values will not be very low, critical fire weather conditions will arise once again given how dry the grasses are across the Panhandles. Winds will decrease this evening, but will remain breezy all night as the leeside low treks east across Kansas.

Strong WAA returns to the Panhandles on Sunday as H850 temperatures rise up into the mid 20s Celsius on Sunday afternoon. This translates to high temperatures near or breaking record highs once again on Sunday. Forecast high temperatures right now are in the upper 80s to low 90s area wide. Relative humidity values will be quite low on Sunday afternoon, but winds are only expected to be around 10-15 mph, so critical fire weather conditions are not currently expected. Very warm overnight lows are expected Sunday night into Monday as the warmer air mass sits over the region.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Zonal flow is expected to prevail over the southern High Plains to start the new work week. Another very hot day is in store for Monday given this pattern, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s once again. A surface low pressure system to the north of the Panhandles will lead to breezy winds returning on Monday. Models right now are keeping the surface trough over the Panhandles, which is leading to lesser winds over the CWA. We can hope this pans out, but the stronger winds are just to the east of the Panhandles in Oklahoma right now. In either case, critical fire weather will likely arise once again on Monday, just how bad it could be depends on how strong the winds may become. A cold front will move through on Tuesday, just when varies in the model guidance. A large temperature gradient may occur across the area given the front potentially moving through during the daytime hours.

Model guidance continues to diverge with the upper level pattern mid to late week next week. The good news? There are signs that the pattern may change just enough for moisture to surge north across the area and lift provided by upper level disturbances may lead to rain showers or thunderstorms during this time frame. In addition, temperatures should be a bit cooler, but still will be above average late next week. Nothing is certain at this point, but there is some hope potentially on the horizon to start getting some moisture across the region towards the end of this forecast period.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A low-level cloud deck is slowly breaking down this morning with KAMA still seeing some broken coverage overhead. This deck should be cleared out be the late morning with only some few to scatter high clouds present for the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds at the surface will look to pick up during the afternoon with southerly winds capable of gusting upwards of 25 to 35kt at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will arise once again this afternoon across the northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Even though relative humidity values will only decrease to 15-20 percent, the very dry grasses will continue to lead to potential fire starts. The winds will be breezy to gusty out of the south to southwest, with gusts upwards of 30 to 40 mph. The strongest winds will be across the northwestern Panhandles this afternoon. These conditions will result in Red Flag Threat Index values in the 3 to 4 range during peak heating today.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>005.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.