textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Isolated showers are possible across the western Panhandles this afternoon through this evening. There are very low chances for lightning with any showers that form.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon due to breezy south winds and dry surface conditions.

- Strong to severe storms are possible each day from Thursday through Sunday across portions of the Panhandles. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Even though temperatures will be a bit cooler today than yesterday due to the present and expected cloud cover throughout the day, elevated fire weather conditions will likely arise across the north this afternoon. Winds will be out of the south around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Surface conditions will remain dry throughout the day so have issued an elevated Fire Danger Statement for the northern half of the area for this afternoon. The rest of the forecast remains on track, with the very low potential (10-20 percent) for isolated rain showers to reach the western Panhandles this evening.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Theta-E profiles still appear weak during the short term period. Though we should start to see some Gulf moisture surge in during this time frame, it won't be until later in the week where higher end QPF totals can be realized. Instead, isolate to scatted showers, with a few isolated thunderstorms, are expected today across western portions of our CWA. Any shower that can get going will not be a very efficient rain producer given today's weak forecast instability and shallow lapse rates. 00Z CAMs are still not in agreement where exactly showers will set up across Eastern New Mexico and the western High Plains, but they all agree that the storm mode will be quite scattered. High temperatures today should stick to the lower 70s, but a few locations may stay sub-70 degrees depending on how substantial cloud coverage is during the day. Surface winds are expected to stay breezy, even strong (+20 mph) at times, both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

Near elevated fire weather conditions are possible in the east today for gusty winds and low relative humidity values as low as 20%. While mid level moisture moves through the area, moisture at the surface will still be quite limited. Not only that, but the east my not even see any shower activity till the overnight time frame. Fire weather products may become necessary; but for now, the uncertainty of cloud coverage and moisture quality will prevent any from being issued at this time.

Wednesday, as skies clear and surface wind stay strong, temperatures will also increase areawide. Upper 70s and 80s are forecast across the region for highs tomorrow. Though precipitation will remain largely absent, some models suggest that a few showers could move in from southern Kansas Wednesday night. This would mainly effect the northeastern zones of our CWA. Like today, QPF will be light from any shower that can linger into our area.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Seeing signals of a wetter pattern this coming extended period. Starting Thu with 20 to 30 pops, increasing to 30 to 50 pops for Friday. Then, Saturday NBM PoPs have been coming in around 60 to 80. Sunday, the upper level system should be moving out with PoPs decreasing drastically into Mon. There will be a potential for severe thunderstorms on each of these days. However, the fine details have yet to be seen this far out.

H7 theta-e advection is looking mostly sub-optimal Thu and Fri, with the best moisture expected overnight Fri into Sat. This will leave Thu and Fri with some uncertainty about exact moisture potential and severe potential. Based on forecast soundings both Thu and Fri are looking to have high based storms with DCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. Giving the straight line winds the greatest threat potential. Overall CAPE looks better for Thu with MU values in the 1000-1700 J/Kg range and bulk shear around 20-30 kts. With H5 temperatures around -13 degrees C, these CAPE values should allow for hail sizes up to ping pong with a mature storm. If the higher end bulk shear of 30 kts gets realized, would not rule out an isolated supercell producing up to 2" to 2.5". With the weak, and mostly zonal flow aloft for Thu, the bulk shear will most likely be on the lower end, limiting the overall hail growth potential. This is only Day 3 now and much can change in these values and overall severe potential.

Friday, during the day, upper level dynamics look to be fairly weak to non-existant. Even though PoPs are present, forecast soundings share a different story. A small cap may be in place limiting convection on Friday afternoon. Mainly across central to southern parts of the FA. The better H7 theta-e advection will be primarily across the OK Panhandle and may see instability and storm activity confined to the north on Friday. It is not until late Fri night when the ridge overhead breaks down with the approaching system and upper level winds pick up on the leading edge of the H5 trough. A surface high is progged to strengthens east of TX which help divert more near surface moisture up into the area from the Gulf. Thunderstorms may begin to pick up quite early on Sat, even before sunrise. Would not rule out some severe storms early but it will be mostly the afternoon when Tds could rise to near 60 with a dry line potentially setting up somewhere over the far western counties of the FA. Again, its a bit far out so details like storm mode are a bit unclear but could potentially see all hazards depending on how well the upper level lift is in the afternoon, after having potential morning storms working over the environment.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will persist with this TAF issuance. Winds will be out of the south to southwest over the next 24 hours with gusts up to 25-30 kts at the terminals. The wind gusts should become less frequent towards the later half of this TAF cycle. Upper level clouds will continue to stream in across the region during this time frame.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.