textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms for portions of the area at times through Monday. Locally heavy downpours are main threat tonight and there is a marginal risk for severe storms on Monday.

Above normal heat returns briefly Wednesday in advance of the next frontal passage Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Strong outflow from western storms this evening didn't do the southwest Panhandles any favors wrt rainfall amounts, however we are seeing redevelopment near Amarillo as the main cold front is approaching the area. Even late tonight and into Sunday morning the HRRR and NAM maintain elevated instability above the cooler more stable surface airmass behind the front, so while POPs will be decreasing, isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast especially for the southern and central Panhandles. MUCAPE is forecast to remain less than 800 j/kg, so the main threat should be from heavy downpours and lighting. While the cap decreases, some remains present as does H7 moisture transport above the frontal zone. Given this, low POPs persist into Sunday night mainly across the southern Panhandles. WPC marginal threat for heavy rainfall remains across the southwest 3rd of the Texas Panhandle.

NW mid level flow will persist Monday as series of S/WVs maintain broad ERN US troughing. Decent disturbances in this flow will move across the region on Monday. Models suggest a pretty good cap will be in place, but some manage to break this w/ help of these disturbances and some H7 moisture transport. The western counties are currently favored and given adequate wind shear but marginal CAPE. POPs of 10-40 percent favoring the west seems reasonable for now. Highs will be below normal and generally in the 70s the next two afternoons.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

After a couple days with below normal temps behind the front, will see a warmup on Tuesday closer to average and will warm well above normal on Wednesday. The heat seems to be more as a result of downsloping SW low level flow and dry air as H5 ridging isn't impressive. The newly added water in the soil should matter wrt mitigating max temps, but difficult to say how much. Widespread 100-105 temps are forecast. Will see if this decreases as models adjust ground moisture, but it will be hot even if this is currently slightly overdone. With continued NW flow, the next front will arrive quickly and end the brief heat wave as highs are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s Thu.

Rain chances will return Friday into the weekend as models indicate the monsoon influence returns from the west. H5 high pressure will remain across the Desert SW leading to ridge roller disturbances which will be the catalyst for generating storms that track into the area from the west. Current forecast strength and position of the ridge slightly favors the NE for POPs but not confident in details this far out. It also favors increasing temperatures once again over the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MVFR ceilings are being observed at KAMA and they could form at KDHT over the next few hours. The low clouds should lift by late morning and a return to VFR conditions is expected through the rest of this TAF cycle. There are low chances for showers or storms at the terminals during the day, but confidence is not high enough to include PROB30 mentions at this time. The wind will be out of the northeast with gusts up to 25-30 kts at the sites before decreasing and turning clockwise through the rest of this TAF issuance.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.