textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Thunderstorms are expected across the western and central Panhandles this afternoon. Chances are low for storms to become severe, but the best chances are across the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Daily thunderstorm chances persist through the week, with the highest chances Tuesday through Thursday. Severe thunderstorm chances remain low, but cannot be ruled out for the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Thunderstorm chances continue to increment through the short term period as monsoonal moisture surges into the region. Temperatures will be hot again today, but we will see a steady decrease as the week progresses.

Guidance persistently shows H500 high pressure building over the CWA for the next couple of days. A narrow corridor of high theta-e is forecast to elongate SE to NW from central Oklahoma to the Front Range in Colorado. While quality moisture is still expected to gradually move into the Panhandles today, models are showing an area of subsidence in our southeastern zones away from the moisture axis. Meanwhile, a surface low will anchor over southeast Colorado toady, aiding as a source of lift for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will begin around 4 PM in the western Panhandles. As the march eastward, the aforementioned subsidence will inhibit potential for further development tonight; so, thunderstorm activity is expected to end before midnight. Most CAMs and short term guidance suggests that surface based instability will be <1,000 J/kg except in locations closest to the narrow moisture axis near the northeast combined Panhandles. Some models like the NAM 3KM still display a broader area of SBCAPE between 1,000 - 2,500 J/kg for the FA. This low confidence solution may lend to higher severe potential and greater PoP coverage, but this is still the "least likely/worst case" scenario. These CAPE parameters, alongside weak bulk shear, will keep severe thunderstorm probabilities low today. High temperatures will still rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon, with 850 mb temperatures suggesting most locations will stay in the 90s range, while only a handful of locations break into the triple digits.

Tomorrow, a wider range and higher coverage of storms is beginning to unfold with the latest 00Z CAMs. The storm mode still appears to involve scattered single cell and multicell thunderstorm clusters. Steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE will allow for some storms to become strong to severe. Their sustainability will be low, however, due to our prevailing low shear environment. Convective initiation will begin in the early afternoon off the high terrain in New Mexico and move east in conjunction with a weak surface trough setup over the High Plains. The current forecast evolution for these storms suggest the greatest PoP coverage will occur overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday. High (>1") precipitable water values shown by recent models will allow storms to be efficient rain producers and could lead to some scattered >0.5" QPF overnight. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the remainder of the current short term forecast period.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A cooler and wetter start to the long term period is expected across the combined Panhandles. Later towards the weekend, long range models suggest we warm back into the 90s and PoPs will steadily decrease heading into the second week of June.

A positively tilted omega block is still expected to set up over the CONUS at the start of the extended. As the jet stream flattens out towards the end of the week, an upper level low will strengthen over the desert southwest and slowly shift northeast. Weak troughing Wednesday and Thursday will aid as ongoing support for convection throughout each day. 70 degree highs may become more wide spread as rain and cloud cover persists on Wednesday. High temperatures will steadily increase through the rest of the week as the moisture axis shifts east. By Friday onward, PoPs may become more eastern focused. Severe thunderstorm chances still appear low through much of the long term period. High PWATs but scattered thunderstorm coverage will lead to some interesting QPF scenarios, where the outcome will likely change daily due to the nature of the convection. The bottom line is some locations should be able to receive over an inch of rain this week if multiple storms can move over the same area. On that same note, some areas could miss out on beneficial rainfall if they are never directly influenced by thunderstorms.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. The one caveat will be a slight chance for thunderstorms to impact anyone of the terminals. Confidence remains low at this time and will need amendments during periods of increased confidence mainly between 21Z and 03Z Tuesday. Expect southerly winds today with maybe some non-convective gusts up to 25 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.