textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Sunday, with elevated fire weather expected on Friday and Saturday.

- Strong, potentially damaging wind is forecast for Sunday with a low chance (10-30%) for wind gusts to exceed 60 mph.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery depicts a trough in the Northwestern US with clouds associated with a subtropical jet pushing into northwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Southwestern US. A particularly distinct shortwave, currently over Montana and Wyoming, will move north tonight as another shortwave will track east through the Southwestern US. In response to this shortwave, we will see a surface low develop in southeastern Colorado tonight and strengthen through Thursday as it pushes southeast into the northern combined Panhandles.

A weak front is expected to move into the northern combined Panhandles and stall out. Global operational models and most of their ensembles keep the front in the Oklahoma Panhandle while some of the mesoscale and high resolution models (e.g., 12km NAM and HRRR) bring the front into the northern Texas Panhandle. Will lean toward the latter solution as the more likely given the tendency for the global models to underestimate how far south fronts make it. Weaker winds (10-20 mph) is expected in the vicinity of the front/surface low owing to the weaker surface pressure gradient, but those south of the front can expected 20-30 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 40 mph. There is also a 20-50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 45 mph south of the front. Single digit relative humidity can be expected across the area which, along with the aforementioned breezy winds, will create critical fire weather conditions. The surface low will weaken while moving southeast Thursday night and which will bring the weak front through the area.

Thursday's weather system will move into the Midwest on Friday as surface winds veer toward southeasterly or southerly behind Thursday night's cold front. Low relative humidity can be expected again, largely between 9% to 15%, but winds will be relatively weak at 5 to 10 mph for much of the area. Winds may reach into the 10-15 mph range in the northwestern combined Panhandles though. Regardless, elevated fire weather conditions can be expected across the Panhandles for Friday.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A quasi-zonal subtropical jet stream is expected to set up over the Southern US on Saturday. A surface low is favored to develop somewhere in the southern High Plains, likely at least initially in northeastern New Mexico. Much like the previous days, relative humidity values will range from 8% in the west to 10-20% in the east. However, winds once again do not look particularly impressive, which favors more of an elevated fire weather day than critical. Unfortunately, there is a wide range of possible solutions regarding a cold front that may or may not move into the Panhandles on Saturday. The GFS, ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and nearly half of the GEFS and EPS members bring a cold front into at least the northern combined Panhandles while the 12km NAM, AI-GFS, and the other half of the GEFS and EPS members keep the front to the north, and in the instance of the NAM and AI-GFS, washes out the front without ever making it to the Panhandles. Will have to monitor trends as this could result in some parts of the northern combined Panhandles not seeing elevated fire weather conditions. There is a 10-30% chance for showers in the northeastern combined Panhandles Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, not too impressed at this time.

A well-defined trough will move from California toward the Panhandles Saturday night into Sunday morning. A potent surface low will develop in southeastern Colorado and track east through the day, with the low deepening to 990mb-995mb, though there are a few solutions showing a sub-990mb low. The surface pressure gradient will steepen through the day which will result in sustained winds between 30 to 40 mph in the western and central combined Panhandles, and 20 to 30 mph in the east. Forecast soundings show winds toward the top of the mixed layer ranging from 50-60 mph, with the average being around 45-55 mph. Additionally, the Panhandles will be in the right exit region of the upper-level jet streak which promotes subsidence. The mean winds in the mixed layer alone suggest the potential for 45-55 mph wind gusts, but owing to the subsidence and any kind of localized robust mixing, there is certainly potential for wind gusts to exceed 55 mph. Latest guidance shows a 20-50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 55 mph in the western Panhandles, and a 10-30% chance to exceed 60 mph. A Wind Advisory looks likely for Sunday to cover the sustained winds and wind gusts, but a High Wind product is not out of the question if the winds trend upward some. Conditions will also be dry across the Panhandles with minimum RH ranging from 9% to 13% across the southern and central Texas Panhandle to 10% to 17% in the northern combined Panhandles. Given these conditions, critical fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday. There is a weak signal amongst some ensembles for a chance for rain in the northern combined Panhandles, but there is a solid signal for dry air aloft to be moving into throughout the day. Therefore, am not sold at all on the prospect for rain on Sunday, which would most likely just be virga anyway.

A cold front will move in Sunday night that changes the winds to northwesterly, but fortunately the winds don't even look breezy behind the front.

Temperatures will be cooler on Monday and Tuesday compared to the norm lately, but still warmer than normal with less than a 10% chance for rain. The next system to watch will move into the Southwestern US Tuesday night which could impact the Panhandles Wednesday. At this time there is a 20-40% chance for rain and thunderstorms across the Panhandles, but it is still a far way out and plenty of time for significant shifts.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. 15-25 kt sustained winds can be expected today at all terminals with gusts between 25-35 kts. A weak boundary will move through Guymon which will change winds to northwesterly or northerly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will occur Thursday across the Panhandles due to 20-30 mph west-southwesterly winds with gusts up to 40 mph. A weak cold front will move through tonight which will change winds to northerly, but winds will be 5-15 mph.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for Sunday. Poor relative humidity recovery is expected Saturday night across the southwestern Texas Panhandle with relative humidity dropping to 8% to 15% across most of the Panhandles, with 10-20% in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Sustained southwesterly winds between 30-40 mph are forecast with gusts up to 55 mph in the western and central combined Panhandles. There is a low (10-30%) chance for wind gusts to exceed 60 mph in the western Texas Panhandle. A low- level thermal ridge will be set up over western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle, which makes the windward side of the thermal ridge over the central Texas Panhandle. Therefore, high- end critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the western and central Texas Panhandle. A cold front will move in from the north Sunday night and change winds to northwesterly at 10-20 mph.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.