textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Heat related illnesses may occur for those that are outside through Saturday across the Panhandles due to the expected historically hot temperatures.

- Any outdoor activities that may create sparks or flames are not recommended on Saturday and Sunday due to critical fire weather conditions.

- Near record breaking temperatures may occur once again in the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Hot temperatures and dry conditions will look to continue today as models expect the upper-level high pressure system over the Western United States to hold strong. Here in the Panhandles, present CAMs are expecting a small lee-side low to shift off the Southern Front Range and create a bit of a southwesterly flow in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. While the positioning of this low will help in creating some breezy conditions for the Panhandles, the southwesterly direction will also aid in amplifying the warm and dry conditions for the afternoon. At this time, present CAMs continue to see today as the hottest day of the week with afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 90s. Should this occur, then it is very likely to once again see multiple climate site break records this afternoon. Of course such abnormally hot temperatures have brought concerns, especially for the Palo Duro Canyon. Down in the canyon it very likely for the terrain to influence heating even more with temperatures at the floor easily reaching into the triple digits for a second day. Given this we have issued another Heat Advisory for the Palo Duro Canyon this afternoon.

On the fire side of weather today, these breezy conditions are expected to meet with very dry relative humidity values that could be as low as 5%. This will result in low-end critical fire weather across the Panhandles with the heat making it even easier to see ignitions. Due to this, a Red Flag Warning is set in place for the entire combined Panhandles this afternoon as well. Moving into the overnight of Saturday sees the Panhandles pay the price for such dry conditions as models continue to project very poor overnight recovery of relative humidity values. Unfortunately this will only serve to amplify fire weather concerns as the Panhandles looks to see another cold front push across Sunday morning. While this front is not as potent as our last, CAMs continue to see northerly winds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts upwards 40 mph developing behind it. These winds will be able to work with relative humidity values still in the10 to 20% range and afternoon highs still reaching into the 70s and 80s. Given this combination, it highly probable that critical fire weather conditions will be present, so a Fire Weather Watch has been put into place for Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Model agreement continues to see the upper-level high hold strong with present trends seeing it slowly drift eastward over the course of next week. With this high pressure staying so dominate, look for dry and hot conditions to hold for most of the week. For Monday, there is a slight cool down thanks to the cold front that passed Sunday with afternoon highs in the 70s. However as the high slowly progress over Texas proper, temperatures will be quick to rise again with the mid-week returning to the 80s and 90s. Of course, such warm and dry conditions will likely see fire weather concerns continue, but a lack of winds will likely keep these concerns elevated to low-end critical at best. Thankfully hints of a pattern shift does present itself as we move into the weekend. However, there is still quite a bit of model uncertainty on whether it could spell full the end of this high pressure system. For now, look for a cool down to follow with afternoon highs closer to the 70s for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Dry and warm conditions look to hold with winds at both KDHT and KGUY becoming light and variable overnight tonight. By tomorrow morning look for winds to be mostly out of the south to southwest at the surface with some breezy conditions possible that afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue to hold for the package.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on today and Sunday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

For today...historically hot temperatures are expected during the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s and a few locations potentially reaching the triple digit mark for the first time this year. The heat combined with dry surface conditions will result in relative humidity values dropping down to as low as 5 percent across the entire area. Winds will not be the strongest thankfully, but still will be breezy out of the southwest around 15-20 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph. The dry and breezy conditions will result in Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values upwards of 4-5.

For Sunday...a cold front will race south over the Panhandles on Sunday morning, resulting in gusty north winds behind the front. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the north to upper 80s across the south due to colder air moving in behind the front. Even though relative humidity values will increase behind the front, poor overnight recovery (max relative humidity values as low as 18 to 25 percent) will only see values reach into the 20 percent range for the afternoon. Combined with the strong north winds this will lead to critical fire weather conditions. RFTI values on Sunday could be as high as 4 to 5, with the highest values across the south where temperatures will be warmer.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for OKZ001>003.