textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers in the central and northern Panhandle today capable of moderate to heavy rain, which could result in localized flooding.

- Very low chance (5-10%) of a storm or two capable of large hail and damaging wind along and south of I-40 this afternoon and evening.

- Low chance of strong to severe storms in the southwest Panhandles on Friday.

- Very warm and dry conditions will return over the weekend.

- Scattered showers and storms return next week and the main concern with these storms at this time would be excessive rainfall, as the threat for severe weather at this time is very low.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Upper low continues to spin over the Panhandle this afternoon and while better forcing for showers and storms is to the north in southern CO/KS, we do still have some pop up showers along and south of the main circulation from afternoon heating. 18z KAMA sounding showing a moist, yet unstable near the surface profile, which lines up with the pop up showers around the area. Low level CAPE as well as surface vorticity continue to be supportive of landspouts today with these showers/storms. But later this afternoon as we heat up more, we could see some isolated storms strong enough to produce hail up to an inch or maybe a 60 mph wind gusts between I-40 and the Lubbock area. So will not rule out a severe storm or two this afternoon and evening. As the system slowly tracks north tonight the pops will drop off from the south west to northeast, where we will be pretty much done by early to mid morning tomorrow. Tomorrow is expected to be a fairly quiet and warmer day with highs in the 80s. And while most of the area tomorrow should be free of rain, we do anticipate an isolated storm or two to pop up around the Panhandle. Given the recent moisture and the ample surface heating it will help to get some cu building up, and despite being under more of a weak ridge tomorrow, there could be an impulse or two move over the Panhandles during peak heating to help kick off a storm or two. The storm may be strong, but don't anticipate anything severe. Things should quiet down overnight tomorrow night before we get our next shot at weather on Friday.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Friday's severe threat is starting to show promise now in the southwest Panhandles. While CAPE values were on the higher side to the east yesterday, and still showing that same likelihood today, the cap looks to win out before all that instability moves east into OK, so confidence has dropped on storms further east. We still run into the influence of the negative tilt trough over eastern NV, and it does appear to have a shortwave with it that will be well timed to track across the southwest Panhandles mid to late Friday afternoon. ML CAPE values range from about 750-1500 J/kg for that area and modest shear would support strong to severe storms. We'll have to keep an eye on this shortwave as well as the position and timing of it. But for now the severe threat seems reasonable for the southwest on Friday. But will note that storms that develop could track further east and that could expand the severe threat further east.

Moving into the weekend, things have shifted a bit as an omega block pattern sets up and while it's close, the position of the low over the interior Pacific Northwest is set up just enough that we should be under dry southwest flow, and the lee surface low's that are set to develop on Saturday and Sunday. Very warm temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Saturday, and then again on Sunday temperatures are expected to be widespread lower to mid 90s. While there is no precipitation in the forecast over the weekend, we still need to be careful given the recent moisture that we don't manage to heat up enough to get a storm pop. That being said, the RH values look to bottom out in the 10 to 15 percent range on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday Surface high over the Great Lakes will track down and push further east from the omega block pattern. That will push the higher dewpoints over the Panhandles and with some subtle shortwaves under the south to southwest flow over the Panhandles will certainly favor scattered storms to trigger on both days. Right now the focus of the storms will be moderate to heavy rain, but as we get closer, we'll see if there's any shift towards severe, weather.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions at KDHT and KGUY for the next 6 to 9 hours, as showers/storms in the northern Panhandles continue to linger. KAMA has a much smaller chance at that, but not impossible. Any shower/storm that occurs could produce hail, wind, and heavy rain. As this system tracks north the chances for rain drop off and we move more MVFR/VFR as cigs gradually improve. Winds overall will light and variable for the TAF period, but of course could be gusty around showers/storms.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.