textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Hot temperatures continue with potential to see widespread triple- digit temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase by the mid-week with potential to see activity clear into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Another quiet day today as the upper ridge remains mainly over the Four Corners and provides more of a northerly flow over the Panhandles. There is a disturbance that's projected to track across the northern CONUS this afternoon and into the evening, and that will give just enough of a shift in the flow to possibly allow for an isolated storm or two in the northwest Panhandles. Temperatures will be on a rise though with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Wednesday we still have more of a west to northwest flow on which will favor showers and storms off the mountains to track across the Panhandles. But right now the moisture may be limited to some isolated to scattered storms in the northwest, as confidence that they will track across the entire Panhandles is not very highs. The temperatures will get even warmer as we will be looking at almost widespread 100s, which could result in some of the typical hot spots (Palo Duro Canyon State Park, and The Canadian River Valley) reaching heat advisory levels.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Thursday the chances get a little better for storm coverage as it will be similar to Wednesday. We expect another disturbance to track across the Rockies and help push some storms off the mountains into the Panhandle in the evening. Most of the activity looks to be north in CO/KS, but there's still a hint that we could get some scattered storms down here. Temperatures will be hot again on Thursday, as it's currently set to be the hottest day of the work week. With that we would expect another round of heat highlights, and we may even expand the coverage based on several areas currently projected to be in the 100 to 106 range.

Friday may be our best day of storm coverage as the ridge rebuilds it sends us into more of a northwest flow, and there's another disturbance expected to track across the Panhandles, only this one could bring more scattered to widespread storm coverage.

Per the discussion yesterday the setup heading into the weekend still looks interesting, and latest NBM pops has picked up on it with at least some mention Saturday and Sunday.

We are still looking at a massive upper ridge centered more over the Utah/Wyoming/South Dakota/Nebraska area attempt to suppress the moisture further south of the Panhandles. The high is still abnormally further north than a typical summer ridge pattern, and on the south side of the ridge is easterly flow with ample moisture for showers and storms. Models are still trying to preserve a weak cutoff low that will be anchored up against eastern NM and that could support enough lift and instability for showers and storms across the entire Panhandles. So this will be what to watch for the weekend.

On Monday the ridge may expand to the point that it covers the entire CONUS, which would support very hot temperatures and most likely a dry day for the Panhandles, but there are still other solutions out there that suggest the high is further east and we start to get moist back side return flow from the Gulf over our area, and that would lead to a higher chance of showers and storms.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will mainly be southerly and in the 5 to 15kt range.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.