textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Elevated to critical Fire Weather Monday through Thursday, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the worst Fire Weather days.

- High winds possible on Tuesday but cloud cover could limit the extent of the wind gusts, still medium to high confidence in at least 50 mph wind gusts for the northwest.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Some lingering back side moisture of the departing weather system may pose for some patchy fog across portions of the eastern Panhandles tonight. Will monitor the situation to see if it requires more than just a mention in the forecast. As high pressure builds across the area into tomorrow, we'll see mild temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s return. A lee surface low is expected in southeast CO and that will lead to a tightening surface gradient in the northwest Panhandles and winds 15-25 mph.

Winds may stay up overnight in the 10-15 mph range keeping the temperatures in the 40s, and RH recovery fair (~50-70%), but Monday will be our warmest day as we'll see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Since the main jet will not yet be overhead on Monday, the surface low will not be as strong, and winds only look to be in the 15-20 mph range, with gusts possibly getting up to 30 mph. This will make Monday a solid elevated to potentially low end critical day with RH values that could fall into the single digits, it's just the question as to if we'll see winds strong enough for critical Fire Weather. Monday night we'll continue those winds 10-15 overnight in most areas, keeping the overnight lows on the warm side, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday continues to be the primary concern as a well stacked jet will align over the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon and the surface low will tighten even further allowing or sustained winds out of the southwest 25-35 mph, with gusts expected to reach at least 50 mph in the western Panhandles. Tuesday has the potential for all Panhandles to see wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, but there are still some things that work against these stronger winds. Cloud cover is a concern. Some of the models want to hold thicker cloud cover, that would limit heating and maximum mixing potential. Pacific front arrival may be as early as noon in the west, and that would usher in cooler air. So overall, winds are expected to be strong, they may even be high, but there is still some questions as to if we under perform on the wind gusts due to the clouds. Wednesday night winds will come down and skies should clear, and with the cooler Pacific front the lows will come down to the 30s to lower 40s, improving the RH recovery, but still would be borderline fair to poor, as the dewpoints were crashing down behind the front.

Wednesday the overall stacked jet will remain aloft as broad scale southwest flow continues due to another system deepening over the west coast. The main moisture that provided the high clouds on Tuesday would be replaced with much drier air on Wednesday. We still have a jet aloft, but the strongest jet streak isn't as prevalent on Wednesday, leading to a weaker surface low, but still strong enough to support potential winds in the 20-30 mph range with gusts that may reach 30-40 mph. This will still be enough to keep the Fire Weather concerns going on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the 70s and RH values could fall below 10 percent. Winds may not be as strong, but after multiple dry and breezy days, the concern for Fire Weather would still remain.

Thursday will be a bit of a challenge, as there's a shortwave expected to move across the Panhandles, with a pretty strong 700mb jet streak, but that is not aligned with peak heating and we may be on the back side of that system, with slightly cooler air in the 60s and lighter northwest winds on the back side of the shortwave. Still, dry conditions and winds 5-15 mph will continue to add to at least the potential for elevated Fire Weather to persist. There may be a very brief window late in the afternoon on Thursday that we heat up enough to mix some gusts over 40 mph as the low level jet starts to strengthen, but that's a low confidence.

Friday and Saturday will be a challenge as we are riding the line between that warm and breezy air, and a possible backdoor cold front, that may bring an increased chance at precipitation. But cooler temperatures look to be favored for those days with highs in the 50s, to maybe lower 60s in the far southeast.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Will keep an eye on KGUY for possible MVFR, maybe IFR low cigs to intrude over the next few hour and could linger through 14z. Amendments will be made if necessary. Northwest winds around 10kts will gradually turn southeast after 18z and should remain southeast 10-15kts for the remainder of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fire Weather will be the concern for the majority of this upcoming week. It will start off with very dry and breezy conditions on Monday with very warm temperatures in most areas approaching 80. We very well may be near critical on Monday, if the winds over perform then we could be looking at RFTI's in the 4-6 range, but right now just 2-3 with the lower winds.

Tuesday, we have a well stacked jet, RH values in the teens and wind gusts likely 40+ mph, and in some areas 50-60mph will be possible. Cloud cover could help limit those wind gusts, but any fire that is active on Monday and not controlled, will be a problem Tuesday. Any new starts on Tuesday will be an issue given the stronger winds.

Wednesday we'll be looking at much drier air, but winds should be a little more relaxed, yet still have the potential to gust in the 35- 45 mph range. Sustained winds 20-30mph with the RH values below 10 percent could technically support RFTI's a bit worse than Tuesday, but the overall concern still would be that Tuesday is going to be the worse day, given the higher winds.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003.