textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Freezing temperatures are expected tonight across the western Texas Panhandle and the entire Oklahoma Panhandle. Take action to protect sensitive crops and vegetation.

Critical fire weather conditions resume tomorrow. Fire weather headlines will prevail through the new week. Any fires that develop will have the potential to spread rapidly.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A surface high remains centered over much of the CWA today. Surface wind flow remains northerly through the afternoon and evening. Winds will not transition back from the south until the surface high repositions southeastward out of our area. Lee side troughing redevelops at the surface and will begin to tighten the pressure gradient from northwest to southeast across the Panhandles early Sunday morning. By the late morning and into tomorrow afternoon, strong southwesterly winds will return across the region and prevail through the end of the short term period.

Today, high temperatures are on track to settle into the 60s areawide. Light to breezy northerly winds will keep fire weather conditions at bay for today. Tonight, radiational cooling will aid in many locations dropping back near or below freezing (32 degrees Fahrenheit). A Freeze Warning has been issued across the western half of our CWA, including the entire Oklahoma Panhandle, as these are the areas most likely to drop below 32 degrees tonight. Areal coverage for frost has a low chance of occurring tonight given how low relative humidity (RH) will be throughout the combined Panhandles. Still, some highly localized patches cannot be ruled out for those who have recently watered outside vegetation. This will aid in locally increasing the dewpoint this morning, allowing for patches of frost to develop as temperatures easily fall below 36 degrees and surface winds remain relatively light.

Tomorrow, warm air advection (WAA) will bring in warmer temperatures across the Panhandles. Highs should return to the 70s and sky conditions should be mostly sunny. Given the uptick in wind speeds and persistent low minimum RH, critical fire weather is expected for the whole FA tomorrow late afternoon through the early evening.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

As the upper level trough becomes fully displaced from the High Plains, upper level ridging will resume in it's place. 500 mb heights are not expected to rise drastically through the new week, rather a steady incline of temperatures profiles is expected until the next trough arrives. Long range models depict another low pressure system developing in the Pacific Northwest late in the extended period. H700 Theata-E profiles still appear lackluster with the potential trough arrival at the end of the workweek, as the better moisture fetch continues to favor areas east of the combined Panhandles.

Hot, dry, and windy conditions continue through next week. Highs will return to the 80's and even 90's on some days. WAA is forecast through much of the week, with windy, southerly flow expected each day of the long term period. Given the persistent drought and low PoP chances for the next 7 days, fire weather conditions are expected to linger towards the end of April.

There are a couple of days next week, namely Monday and Wednesday, where moisture seem comparable for precipitation. Yet, the NBM continues to keep PoPs low for those days, likely due to concerns of inhibition and the strength of the shortwaves for our sources of lift.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions continue over all sites for the next 24 hours. Light to breezy northerly winds are forecast through the rest of the day. By tomorrow, the wind direction will shift back to being southwesterly. In the late morning, expect wind speeds to increase near or over 20 kts sustained at all sites. Strong winds are expected to continue till the end of the 18Z TAF period and beyond.

Rangel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions return to the combined Panhandles on Sunday. Minimum relative humidity falls to single digits almost areawide. Wind speeds during the afternoon may get up to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible, mainly across our northwest zones. The wind direction will primarily be from the southwest and no major changes are expected throughout Sunday. Max Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values are up to 7 in the Oklahoma Panhandle. This area alongside the northwest Texas Panhandle are where wind speeds are forecast to be the strongest. Thus, maximum RFTI in these zones range from 5-7. Given how early the winds kick up, the critical fire weather window will begin in the late morning and subside in the early evening when wind speeds finally die down.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>004-006- 007-011-012-016-017-317.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020- 317.

OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.