textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today. Brief, low-end critical fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out.

Showers are expected late Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance for isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Frost or freeze conditions will be possible Wednesday night across the central and northern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Warm temperatures continue as forecast for today. A few locations in the southern Texas Panhandle have already hit 90 degrees and additional locations in our eastern zones are expected to follow suite. Elevated fire weather conditions also persist this afternoon due to breezy, westerly winds and low minimum relative humidity. Based off of our maximum RFTI values and ERC Percentiles, conditions are near-critical for areas in the southern Texas Panhandle; however, criteria is still not being met for a Red Flag Warning.

Tonight, the cold front is expected to move in quicker than previous model runs have suggest. Surface winds have been increase for Tuesday 1 AM to 7 PM, and maximum temperatures have been adjusted down for the CWA. The majority of the region should be in the 60's range for temperatures tomorrow, but the southern Texas Panhandle should still be in the 70's once the front stalls out and retreats back into that zone during the afternoon. PoPs continue to be cut through the Day 2 period, but the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle is still most favored to receive precipitation through this time frame. QPF still isn't impressive for those areas, but our northwest zones may still manage to accumulate at least 0.25".

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

No major changes have been made to the long term period.

PoPs continue to bleed into the Wednesday time frame. New model data still is not favorable for PoPs to increase from their current values. Once CAMs are incorporated, we may see a continued decrease in QPF. For now they have been accepted. Highs will rebound after our cool down on Wednesday. Freeze potential is still favorable for our northwest zones Thursday morning. The bias-corrected models are still lower that the raw data, but even the 00Z LREF displays a 42% for temperatures to range between 30 to 35 degrees. Friday onward, anticipate above average temperatures to continue for the rest of the period. On Sunday, our next cold front should arrive, but temperatures may only drop back down to average values for the season.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18Z TAF period. Model signals are beginning to show MVFR ceilings moving into KDHT and KGUY tomorrow morning. However, confidence is not high enough at this time to make mentions in the current TAF package. Changed may be made in future forecasts that add in this feature.

Strong, westerly winds are forecast to continue for the rest of the day. The wind direction will shift northeasterly behind the cold front tonight. Breezy winds should linger through the rest of the TAF period.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.