textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers with isolated thunderstorms are favored late tonight through Friday. There is a very low chance for flash flooding.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through Monday.

- Strong winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday with wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A trough is present from off the coast of California, stretching down toward the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula while there's a ridge present from the Gulf into the Great Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front has sunk into the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle this morning which is expected to slowly retreat northward this afternoon. Mid-level moisture will move into the Panhandles ahead of the trough, and despite a lack of forcing aloft, there may just be enough convergence at the surface in order to force a few isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon to around sunrise in the northern combined Panhandles. However, confidence is very low due to the aforementioned lack of upper-level support.

The upper-level trough will swing off to the northeast tonight into Texas, and rain will work into the Panhandles from the south before sunrise. Instability looks weak at best, but it may be enough to support thunderstorms with the initial northward moving bands as forcing first makes it into the area. Forecast soundings show a deeply saturated atmosphere with precipitable water values between 1" to 1.5", which is above the 99th percentile for late October. This will lead to up to 1" per hour rain rates with the initial band of thunderstorms. Expect a more stabilized atmosphere after the initial band which will lower thunderstorm chances and the rain rates; expecting up to 0.50" per hour rates with the rain showers. Given the relatively low rain rates, not too concerned about flash flooding potential. With that said, there is still a very low chance for flash flooding in urban areas or otherwise flash flood prone locations. However, given the saturated soil from recent rain events, increased runoff is expected which may lead to nuisance ponding or localized flooding. Rain will come to an end from southwest to northeast starting Friday afternoon to early evening, and rain is likely to come to an end across the combined Panhandles before Saturday's sunrise.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A set of upper-level troughs will be present near or off the West Coast to start Saturday with a subtropical jet extending into the Southern Great Plains. Cloudy conditions should be present over the Panhandles through at least the morning, if not afternoon, which will help keep temperatures cooler than average. A weak shortwave trough is favored to move through the area Saturday afternoon which may force an isolated rain shower, but the atmosphere is likely to be too stable to support thunderstorm development.

The set of troughs will progress eastward Saturday and into Sunday, and they will begin to impact the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. A surface low will develop in eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon which will cause the winds to strengthen. By 7 PM Sunday, there is fairly good agreement that one of the two troughs will be in eastern Arizona/western New Mexico while the other trough is still digging down through Nevada. The forcing associated with the easternmost trough could bring rain and thunderstorm chances into the Panhandles as early as Sunday afternoon, but it will more likely be Sunday night. Precipitable water values will be very high again which will lead to efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms, but instability may again be limited which will limit rain rates. There is only a 10-15% chance for rainfall amounts to exceed 0.50" Sunday night into Monday given the lower rain rates and expected high mean winds.

The second of the two troughs is expected to move in quickly behind the first, and this trough has the potential to be a rather dynamic weather system. A stronger low pressure system is favored to develop Sunday night into Monday in eastern Colorado and track southeast. Although some precipitation will be possible in the eastern Panhandles Monday morning as the trough moves into the area, the greater chances will be on the backside of the trough as moisture wraps around the system which mostly favors the northwestern and northern combined Panhandles. Again, despite high PWATs, not expecting much instability which will limit rain rates.

Otherwise, with this stronger low pressure system, we will be looking at a windy Monday and Tuesday--particularly behind the cold front. There is currently a 30-60% chance for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph in the northwestern combined Panhandles on Tuesday and Wednesday, with lower chances elsewhere.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

IFR to MVFR conditions are currently present in Amarillo and Dalhart, but expecting to return to VFR within an hour.

Rain showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, along with low ceilings, will move in late tonight. This will be followed by rain showers with a diminished risk for thunderstorms through Friday morning.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.