textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected across much of the Panhandles this afternoon and evening (20-40% POPs). Strong wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

- Heat impacts return to portions of the Panhandles with some areas exceeding 100 degrees today through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

With high pressure well enough displaced from the region, short- medium range models have finally realized that the window is open for scattered rain chances to return to the Panhandles. Observational data depicts southwest flow aloft encroaching upon the High Plains, as Tropical Depression Eduardo further nudges the heat dome over the Tennessee Valley. This is allowing weak disturbances and daytime heating to take better advantage of rich mid-level moisture for afternoon-evening storm development. Wherever storms develop may depend on the location of stalled boundaries, the locations of which are not set in stone. But don't be surprised to wake up to a smattering of small, weak showers across the eastern Panhandles this morning along one of these boundaries.

With high temperatures in the 95-105 range, and remnant outflow boundaries stalling over the CWA, hi-res CAMs are getting more and more aggressive forecasting scattered storm development later this afternoon-evening (20-40% POPs), and even again tomorrow (lower coverage of storms expected, 20-30% POPs). Severe storms aren't likely, especially with MUCAPE values generally remaining <1000 J/kg and bulk shear values only around 5-15 kts. However, as we saw yesterday, wind gusts of 50-60 mph are achievable with DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Moisture content over the Panhandles is still ripe for producing localized heavy downpours, with PWATs steadily around 1.0-1.5". This potential will be highest along and east of whatever boundaries storms form off of, which favors the western to central Panhandles based on most CAMs. Some newer trends place higher storm chances more across the central to eastern Panhandles today where an outflow boundary from yesterday is likely stalled, but we will monitor this for any shifts in higher probabilities.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Precipitation trends are looking up for the Panhandles as we approach the second week of September. Global models are forecasting another toasty weekend for the area as an Omega Block pattern sets up through early next week. While this still promotes highs in the 90s to triple digits, this does "dirty up" the ridge enough to allow for occasional rain chances through the week. The block likely begins to break down by midweek, but model agreement drastically goes down the proverbial drain. Long range guidance is greatly struggling to decide how to evolve the upper ridge as deep troughing takes over the western CONUS, but ensemble members suggest that the synoptic pattern could favor wetter outcomes. Even though confidence is low on the precipitation potential, a very gradual "cooling trend" is looking more attainable. Perhaps we could even see high temperatures in the 80s return by mid month.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 00Z TAF period. Winds will turn W and even NW at KDHT and KGUY this morning, before returning to S to SSE for the remainder of the TAF period at all three sites. A PROB30 for thunderstorms has been added for KAMA from 21-24Z, with coverage not expected to affect KDHT and KGUY. Winds will likely remain under 15 kts sustained, gusting to a max of 20 kts this evening.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.