textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions forecasted for Thursday due to gusty winds and low RH.

- Warm and drier conditions are expected to keep elevated to critical fire clear present into next week.

- Increasing potential for strong winds behind the cold front passage Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

As of late tonight, latest station observations have seen wind weaken in correlation with the full exit of the system and its associated upper-level jets. To our west model has seen a new ridge building that will likely place the Panhandles under a more northwesterly flow in the upper-levels. Down at the surface, this pattern is likely to see the Panhandles once again heat up and dry out over the next few days. For Thursday, this warm up will begin to be felt as temperature look to rise back into the mid to upper 70s that afternoon. This warm and dry weather, however, does not result in a quite day for the Panhandles. Presently, models have continue to see a new lee-side low forming off the Southern Front Range during the early morning hours, which will set the Panhandles up for another classic down-sloping wind event. In response to this set up, the late morning and early afternoon will look to have gusty southwesterly winds that could reach speeds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts upwards 40 mph in places. These winds could also lead to some patchy blowing dust with best chances across the Western Panhandles. Of course with such gusty and dry conditions looking to be present, critical fire weather is not too far behind. As it stands, critical fire weather is more about the timing rather than conditions. Currently latest CAMs have suggested that strongest winds may be short lived as lee-side low looks to eject an push eastward during the late afternoon. This may result in a much shorter than expected window of critical fire weather given that RH values are not expected to drop until that time frame. Regardless a Red Flag Warning will be in place for the entire combined Panhandles starting noon and lasting until 8 PM that evening.

As for Friday, dry and warm conditions look to hold under the northwesterly upper-level flow and building ridge. Afternoon high will look to keep rising with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for the day. However, fire weather concern will actually look to drop off as winds look to be on the weaker side for the day thanks to surface low holding over the area. Elevated concerns may still be present in our northwest and southeast, but current these would likely be more fuel and RH drive should they occur.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Mild west to northwest flow will continue for much of the day on Saturday, and with a surface low centered to the north in eastern CO, and it's fairly broad with a weak surface gradient as winds aloft will not be too strong. It will be warm and dry on Saturday, but light surface winds will keep the Fire Weather concerns in check.

Sunday a strong cold front with a pretty potent jet behind it will push through the Panhandle. Given the surface gradient and the winds aloft will be on the strong side as well, and wind highlights are certainly a concern for Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday are currently set for the mid 50s to mid 60s, but the highs may occur just after midnight, as the warmest temperatures occur before the front pushes through. Afternoon wind chills look to be below 40. Winds will start to relax after sunset and go light and variable overnight. Lows Sunday night look to be on the cold side with teens to mid 20s. Monday will be a cool and dry day as northwest flow kicks in, but the back side of the main cold air system will still linger and that will keep highs in the 50s to near 60.

That northwest flow will continue to dominate as high pressure builds over the Four Corners and brings in warmer temperatures. Highs on Tuesday look to be in the 70s, with 80s on Wednesday. Surface winds look to be on the light side, so dry, but right now it doesn't look too breezy, so Fire Weather concerns look minimal.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Sustained southwesterly winds between 20-25 kts with gusts up to around 37 kts is expected during the day today. This may cause localized blowing dust, but confidence is too low to introduce significant visibility restrictions due to blowing dust at this time. Low- level wind shear may briefly be possible this morning around 15z over Guymon and tonight around 05z over Amarillo, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.