textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- 100+ degree temperatures return to the Panhandles this Friday and through the weekend, with the highest confidence in the southeast.

- This around a 10% chance for some isolated showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening for the south-central Texas Panhandle. Tomorrow evening, looking at a 15-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the NE combined Panhandles. Widespread severe storms are not anticipated. - A pattern shift early next work week has the potential bring much needed rain and breaks in temperatures to portions of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

H85 temeperatures are progged to warm to 29 to 30 degrees C this afternoon brining with it a return to surface temperatures in the 90s once again. This morning lots of surface moisture and dewpoints in the 60s created some dew and even some isolated areas of fog. This moisture is expected to get kicked out of the Panhandles this afternoon with the development of a surface low over portions of eastern NM and the western combined Panhandles. This may drop Tds in the western Panhandles down to the 30s, while the far eastern Panhandles could potentially hang on to the upper 50s to lower 60s depending on how expansive this surface low encroaches on the Panhandles. Negative theta-e advections at H7 today should keep PoPs to near zero today taking a break from precip chances. However, the NAM is showing a bit of positive H7 theat-e advection across the far southern TX Panhandle today, and with a potentially weak low level jet, cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms from Amarillo south and eastward to about Clarendon. For this reason, have added 10 PoPs to the period form 1 PM to 7 PM today.

For tomorrow, the FA is looking to maintain a hot and dry pattern with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Thanks to last nights rainfall in Palo Duro Canyon, a heat advisory that was previously thought to be needed, may not be needed now. Moist soils in the canyon usually hold temperatures back, with the floor only reaching a couple to three degrees warmer than the rim as oppsoed to 5 to 6 degrees warmer. However, the moisture may also allow Td to return to the 60s overnight, and potentially hang on through much of the day. This could lead to some higher heat indices. The aforementioned low is progged to weaken and move into the central Panhandles tomorrow. This should keep Tds in the 40s mixing down around the canyon. As long as drier air does mix to the surface the floor should only reach a high around 103 with heat indices around 100. If not, heat indices could potentially create its own heat risk.

Saturday is expected to be even warmer across the central to southern TX Panhandle, with temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 along with records potenially being broken, as H85 temperatures warm to 33 under the associated surface trough from the low. However, the surface low may potentially be centered over the Panhandles in a manner that brings northerly winds to the northwestern combined Panhandles allowing a bit of a front to keep the north cooler than the southern Panhandles. The low is also expected to bring surface moisture up through the eastern Panhandles and wrap around into all the OK Panhandle depending on the exact positioning of the low. This is introducing a slight chance to chance PoPs to the northeastern Panhadles for Saturday evening. The northeast is the favored area thanks to a shortwave, however, would not rule out an isolated storm in the eastern Panhandles further south during the late afternoon/early evening.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Upper level high pressure is expected to stay in place over the combined Panhandles through Monday, with temperatures remaining in the upper 90s on the caprock to potentially 100-103 off the caprock. Only a very slight chance for pops will be present through Monday. Monday night the upper level pattern is progged to shift with the upper level ridge moving east. This will lead to southwesterly flow aloft and precip chances starting to pick up late Monday night. Monday night a 20 to 30 PoP is given for the northwestern combined Panhandles. However, Tuesday the high pushes even further east bringing a stream of Pacific and Gulf moisture into the area. With this the NBM is giving a 60 to 80 PoP for the central to northwestern combined Panhandles. The far southeastern Panhandles may be limited to around 30 PoPs at this time.

Even Wed night the NBM is giving widespread 40 to 60 PoPs with the exception of the far southeastern Panhandles. PoPs remain in each subsequent period through the rest of the extended period. With the potential rain, temperatures will be potentially lower in the low 90s. Maybe even lower on some days. However, the NBM does not start introducing the 80s for a high until Thursday, but in the upper 80s. It is Friday when high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s start getting introduced by the NBM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. LLWS for KAMA may need to be reassessed at later time as a low level jet could potentially influence winds just off the surface around 06Z Saturday. There is a very low chance of an isolated shower/thunderstorm popping up near or east of KAMA between 22Z and 00Z Saturday. Confidence is low enought to leave out mentions of thunder in the KAMA TAF at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.