textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

-High temperatures will be very warm with widespread highs in the 90s with a few locations at or above 100 degrees.

-About a 10-15% chance of a thunderstorm each day for the Panhandles, and cannot completely rule out strong wind gust from any robust thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Heat and more heat will continue for the next several days, including within the short term forecast period. As the main H500 ridge and its axis builds north-northwest into the intermountain west, strong LL H850 WAA will enter the Panhandles with diurnal heating. Depending on the exact placement of the main H500 ridge axis sets up for the short term forecast period, especially by Wednesday as the main ridge slowly moves east and slowly begins to dissipate, we could see some diurnally driven thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon. With DCAPE above 1500 J/Kg with defined inverted-v soundings by Wednesday afternoon and with very warm temperatures, could be enough to break the cap and produce a storm or two with damaging winds being the main potential hazard if storms reach severe criteria. Chances are not too high, but a 10-20 POP could suffice for these chances. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the lower 90s to a few locations reaching the 100-103 degree range for portions of the TX Panhandle, including PDC.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Temperatures well above average for mid May is expected to continue to continue throughout the long term forecast period. As the main H500 ridge breaks down over the central Plains, SW H500 flow will return and could displace perturbations from the low amplitude sinusoidal wave pattern from the central Rockies into the Plains. With continued very warm temperatures, diurnally driven thunderstorms cannot be ruled out from mid week into the coming weekend. Not looking widespread at this time, but ~20% chance each day to suffice the daily threats with established inverted-v soundings showing some strong winds at times wit the most robust storms. Especially alter in the week into the weekend, latest guidance shows the potential for more robust disturbances moving through the plains aiding lift to increase probabilities of seeing thunderstorm potential. Will watch daily trends closely to update near term forecasts for these potential hazards accordingly. If precipitation amounts remain little to none, we will have to watch for elevated fire weather conditions mid to late week, especially for the western Panhandles.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds at 10-15 kts will weaken this afternoon, turn to northeasterly to easterly later this afternoon and evening, and strengthen to 10-15 kts tonight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.