textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today and Monday across the Panhandles due to windy conditions and very low relative humidity values.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily from Tuesday through at least Friday

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

As of 8:10 this morning, a dryline is set up across the western/central Panhandles with already breezy winds to the east of the dryline and strengthening winds west of the dryline. Very poor overnight recovery was observed west of the dryline, with the Romero mesonet site only seeing relative humidity (RH) as high as 16%. The dryline will quickly mix east through the morning as the shallow moist layer observed on the 12z AMA sounding (moist layer 700 feet deep) will quickly mix out. Elevated to low-end critical fire weather conditions have been locally occurring since as early as 8 AM, and this is expected to spread in coverage through the day as the dryline mixes east and a surface low strengthens late this morning and through the afternoon. Owing to 20-35 mph sustained winds and wind gusts up to 45 mph along with extremely low relative humidity as low as 4%, high-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the CWA.

On the other hand, depending on where the dryline sets up by mid/late afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern Panhandles. The most likely position of the dryline will be oriented from south-southwest to north-northeast, splitting Collingsworth county and clipping eastern Wheeler county. However, in the past few dryline set ups, we've observed something closer to the NBM 75th percentile dew points/wind vectors verify. If this were to happen once again, this would keep Collingsworth county, most of Wheeler county, and eastern Hemphill county east of the dryline. Thus, SPC's placement of the marginal and slight risks seems quite reasonable. Forecast soundings east of the dryline show an environment marked by around 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 42 kts of effective shear, and DCAPE of around 1500-2000 J/kg; all very supportive of supercells capable of producing severe weather. If a supercell were able to develop, wind gusts up to 75 mph and 3" diameter hail would be possible. In fact, wouldn't be surprised if hail could exceed 3" at its most mature. If a supercell is able to persist toward the 23z-02z timeframe when the nocturnal LLJ starts kicking in, a tornado threat could very well develop, but this depends on the supercell also being in our CWA, which comes back to the placement of the dryline and where storms initially develop. One factor arguing against thunderstorms developing is neutral or slightly negative 700mb theta-e advection, and the potential for a mis-timed lobe of vorticity introducing subsidence. In summary, Chances are low for thunderstorms to develop along the dryline, but if one is able to develop, then significant severe weather (2"+ hail/75+ mph winds) will be possible.

Winds will stay breezy across the Panhandles tonight as the dryline retreats once again. Similar to last night, RH recovery west of the dryline will be very poor while recovery east of the dryline will be good to great. A weak cold front will move into the northern Panhandles tonight which will aid in some decent RH recovery.

An upper-level trough will swing from the Intermountain West into the Central Plains tomorrow and take a negative tilt. The right entrance region of the jet streak will favor the development of a deep surface low in northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado. As this surface low deepens, the aforementioned cold front will retreat northward as the winds south of the front strengthen. The dryline will push eastward through the day as the weather system matures. The dryline is favored to push into the extreme eastern Panhandles or western Oklahoma by the late afternoon. Winds will become windy, especially for May's standards, as a ~994mb surface low develops and a stout 35-45 kt 850mb jet develops across the Panhandles. This will support sustained winds between 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Forecast soundings, and supported by probabilistic guidance, suggests at least a low chance for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph in the northern combined Panhandles. RH values in the single digits are expected across the board, and RH as low as 4% is favored as temperatures soar into the upper-80s to upper-90s, with a few locations potentially reaching triple digits. All of these factors will favor extremely critical fire weather conditions for most of the Panhandles.

Adding to the concern is a seasonably impressive cold front that will move in to the Oklahoma Panhandles from the north as early as the late afternoon/early evening hours. There will be a potent post- frontal LLJ (40 to nearly 50 kts at 850mb) at least in the evening hours, but weakening through the night. Additionally, there are surface pressure rises of 4mb/hour over 3 hours and ~3mb/hour over 6 hours, further suggesting increased strong wind potential. Will not be surprised if some 58+ mph wind gusts occur in the northern Panhandles behind the front Monday evening. Due to the sudden wind shift and strong post-frontal winds, this exacerbates fire weather concerns should a wildfire start on Monday and persist into the evening. The timing will be important: most guidance brings the front in from the mid-evening through early overnight hours. Meanwhile most guidance brings it into Amarillo in the very early morning hours of Tuesday (12 AM - 3 AM). With similar fronts in the past (strong post-frontal winds, much cooler airmass), we tend to see these cold fronts move in quicker than most guidance suggests. Will be monitoring for this potential, and it may be good to subtract a few hours from the timing of the median.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The shortwave responsible for the significant fire weather concerns will move off into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, but broad southwesterly flow aloft will remain from the Southwestern US through the Plains and into the Midwest as another upper-level trough positions itself in the Western US. Although details about the large-scale pattern change from Tuesday through Friday, what remains fairly constant is southwesterly flow aloft with Pacific moisture flowing into the region. Temperatures will be cool on Tuesday in this post-frontal airmass, but gradual recovery (in temperatures and low-level moisture) is expected as we progress through the week. Embedded shortwaves in this pattern will favor daily shower and thunderstorm chances from Tuesday through at least Saturday. However, it is likely that at least one of those days will be too subsident or overworked from clouds/lingering showers/thunderstorms from the previous day to support additional showers and thunderstorms. But those details will be worked out on a scale of 1-2 days out, not in the long-term.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest at 15-25 kts with gusts to near 35 kts at times starting around 16-17Z through 00Z before winds diminish to around 10-20 kts for the remainder of the TAF period. Mostly clear skies are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A dryline is currently pushing east through the Panhandles as winds are intensifying and relative humidity (RH) values are plummeting. Peak sustained winds will be 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Winds east of the dryline will be roughly southerly (could be south- southeasterly or south-southwesterly depending on how close/far away from the dryline the location is). Relative humidity will be as low as 4%, but widespread single digit RH values are expected west of the dryline. The dryline is expected to set up across the far eastern Panhandles by mid/late afternoon. This will result in RFTIs ranging from 6 to 8 across the Panhandles with ERCs above the 90th percentile. This puts most, if not all, of the Panhandles in play for high-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions today.

Winds will stay breezy overnight with very poor RH recovery west of the dryline (20% to 40%). A cold front is favored to work into the northwestern Panhandles tonight which will also help with RH recovery but for a fairly small area. The cold front will retreat northward tomorrow as the dryline begins pushing east. Like today, the dryline will push eastward through the morning and likely settle in the far eastern Panhandles, near the TX/OK state line, or western Oklahoma. Winds will be stronger on Monday than they are today, at 25-35 mph (potentially 30-40 mph in the northern combined Panhandles) with gusts up to 50 mph. There is at least a low chance (10-40%) for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph in the northern combined Panhandles. RH values will drop into the single digits across the area with RH as low as 4% for the central/southern Texas Panhandle. This will lead to fairly widespread extremely critical fire weather conditions with RFTIs between 7-8 for most of the area. Will not rule out an RFTI of 9, or maybe even briefly 10 if RH and winds overachieve.

Of compounding concern is that a cold front will move in from the north in the evening to overnight hours. A quick wind shift and strong northerly winds behind the front are likely, especially in the northern Panhandles. This will cause hazardous conditions and a quick shift in direction for any wildfire that may be ongoing. Timing of the front will be important, and is somewhat uncertain at this time. Most likely scenario is that it'll move into the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday evening, then into the Texas Panhandle in the late evening and overnight hours. However, similar fronts (much cooler airmass, windy post-frontal conditions) tend to come in quicker than the majority of the guidance suggests.

Vanden Bosch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night for OKZ001>003.