textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Critical Fire Weather on today due to strong winds and very low RH values despite colder temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Cold front moved through overnight and breezy north winds continue today. While we are slowly warming up a bit, it's not really noticeable with the wind chills, except for the southern Panhandles, as the winds may not be as bad, and the temperatures are in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Very low dewpoints working into the Panhandles bringing RH values down into the teens, and should carry over into possibly the single digits later this afternoon (See Fire Weather Discussion for further details). Strong jet aloft moving over the northeast Panhandles and that is the area of concern for the strongest winds this afternoon. Wind gusts could reach as high as 55 mph. Wind Advisory continues through 6PM this evening for the north central Panhandles, as well as the eastern Panhandles. By sunset this evening we can expect the winds to diminish as daytime mixing subsides, and overnight winds will most likely be in the 5 to 15 mph range. With lighter winds overnight we can expect the wind chill values, while cold, to only get down in the low teens to maybe isolated single digits.

Overnight into Saturday. There's still a lot of residual dry air that's moving into the Panhandles tonight into tomorrow, with a very limited moisture source coming with the shortwave. Given the lack of moisture to work with and the dry air in place have reduced the mention of snow to just flurries. While the chance are very low (<5%) will not rule out a localized area of moisture that could support some light accumulations of a half an inch to an inch. But the confidence is so low that we've just gone with flurries for tomorrow. Highs will be cooler tomorrow with that extra surge of colder air from the north as well as another push of breezy winds. Wind chills will be in the 20s to 30s most of the day. Tomorrow night winds will lighten up and transition more southwesterly and temperature will dip into the teens, and the wind chills, with the limited wind that we have, will be down in the single digits to low teens.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Roller coaster temperatures continue in the extended as northwest flow dominates and we continue to remain on both sides of the warm/cold air masses. Mostly we'll be on the colder side, but Sunday and Tuesday look to be the most favored days for milder temperatures that would be mid 50s to lower 60s. Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday we'll be clipped by backdoor cold fronts out of the northwest flow and that will bring out temperatures back down in the lower 30s to 40s. While current forecast for Wednesday is on the more mild side, the latest updates suggest the next push of cold air will be both on Wednesday and Thursday. Would expect the updated forecast tonight to reflect those changes, unless the models trend back the other way.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Gusty winds in the 20-30kt range will be possible through 00-03z this evening out of the north northwest. Winds after 03z tonight will start to lighten up in the 7-11kt range through 18z. While light flurries will be possible from 06-18z at any given terminal, this is very low probability and not even confident in cig/vis restrictions occurring.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Critical Fire Weather still continues today with strong north northwest winds across the northern and eastern Panhandles. Dewpoints are coming down and RH values are falling into the low 20s to mid teens despite the colder airmass in place. That being said temperatures in the north will likely stay below 50 capping RFTI's in the 2-4 range and the south may see RFTI's in the 4-6 range for areas where temperatures are above 50. Latest satellite imagery shows the driest air just north of the Beaver county area and maybe an hour or two away from entering the Panhandle. This is the area where dewpoints are near to below zero and RH values could really drop off. Still expect some breezy winds to occur with these lower dewpoints and therefore critical Fire Weather will still be possible through about 6pm this evening. Elsewhere today we do have elevated Fire Weather further west, where it will be dry, but winds will not be as strong.

Do expect breezy to windy conditions again tomorrow with more dry air, but with highs barely in the low 40s, RFTI's will be capped most of the day and do not anticipate and Fire Headlines.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ003>005-009-010- 014-015.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ003>005-009- 010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ002-003.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ002-003.