textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Conditions are expected to be favorable for frost Saturday morning in the western and northern combined Panhandles.

- Showers will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon.

- Cannot rule out wintry precipitation in the far northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle. No accumulation is expected at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A shortwave trough off to the west of the Panhandles will track southeast through tonight and Saturday. The stronger forcing and moisture associated with this system will stay off to the west and south of the Panhandles, though there is around a 10% or less chance for a few isolated showers in the southwestern Texas Panhandle Saturday afternoon. Otherwise it will be a very pleasant day across the area with highs in the 70s with 5 to 10 mph winds and a sunny sky.

The trough will move off toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday, and another trough will dip down toward the coast of California. In response, we'll see a ridge build downstream of this trough over the southern High Plains. A surface low will develop through the day on Sunday resulting in warmer than normal temperatures and breezy conditions.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Going into Monday, a trough is favored to be over California with a ridge building downstream. A surface low is currently favored to develop in southwestern Kansas or the northern combined Panhandles throughout Monday. A steep surface pressure gradient should develop mostly south of the surface low, while those that are closer to the low will steep calmer winds. Widespread 80s to low-90s highs can be expected across the Panhandles. Some model guidance suggests some mid-level vorticity will stream across the Oklahoma Panhandle; can't entirely rule out virga that could eventually result in some light rain, but the chance for measurable rain is very low at this point.

The previously mentioned trough will begin to march eastward Monday night through Tuesday as another trough dips southward from Canada. A cold front will move into the Panhandles during the day on Tuesday. Beyond this feature, confidence in the forecast decreases substantially. There are many varying scenarios regarding the speed, track, and strength of the two relevant troughs which greatly decreases confidence on all aspects of precipitation potential (i.e., timing, amounts, location of greatest and least amounts). There is also a glaring red flag in this setup: hints of a dry slot. Operational model guidance is showing fairly strong negative 700mb theta-e advection into an area where the model is producing precipitation. We have seen time and again where models will try to do this, but we ultimately see nothing happen due to mid-level dry air entrainment.

The NBM currently has 15-40% PoPs in the southern Texas Panhandle and 40-80% in the northern combined Panhandles for Tuesday night. This is likely too broad brushed, and we should ultimately see a tighter gradient between likely PoPs and low to no PoPs. However, where this gradient ends up will depend on the previously discussed uncertainties revolving around the troughs as the dry slot will shift with it. For now, the most likely area for precipitation will be near the low as that is where the strongest forcing and most favorable moisture will be. Cannot rule out wintry precipitation in the northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle, near the low, as the airmass associated with this system will be anomalously cool.

In short, there are certainly failure modes for this setup where we could see PoPs quickly decrease as we get closer to the event. Given the way that this year has gone, won't be surprised if the dry slot ends up over the Panhandles while the Oklahoma Panhandle or southwestern Kansas/southeastern Colorado gets some potentially beneficial rain. Again, it's important to remember that the track of the troughs will shift the dry slot with it.

Wednesday will be a seasonably cool day with highs in the 50s in the north to upper-60s to around 70 in the south. Rain could still linger in the north into Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is very low at this time as dry air should be advecting into the Panhandles throughout the day.

Forecast uncertainties continue into Thursday and Friday due to variations of the speed of the troughs. Generally, though, heights aloft will eventually rise and we should see temperatures warm quickly into the 80s by Friday.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be less than 10 kts throughout this period, and at times variable at 5 kts or less.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>004-006- 007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.