textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are favored for Sunday and Monday across portions of the western and central combined Panhandles.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times from Monday night through Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A positively tilted trough is present from the Midwest through the Southwestern US at this time. A surface low in Kansas, associated with the right entrance region of a jet streak in the Midwest, is pushing off to the east-northeast. The cold front associated with this system is moving through the Panhandles this evening which will usher in cooler temperatures and some breezy winds which will last through much of the night.

A surface high pressure will move into the Panhandles and off to the east on Saturday as the system continues to move off to the northeast. Expecting highs only in the 50s to low-60s across the Panhandles. A portion of the positively tilted trough will progressively get cut off from the northern jet stream throughout Saturday and we'll begin to see the low-level winds turn southwesterly. This will begin to draw warmer temperatures back into the Panhandles and set the stage for a warming trend to begin on Sunday when temperatures rebound into the 70s. A surface low will develop in northeastern New Mexico and cause some breezy and very dry conditions, bringing elevated to potentially low-end critical fire weather conditions back into the forecast.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The weather pattern remains similar from Sunday into Monday; a closed/cut-off trough will remain present in the vicinity of the Baja California peninsula while a quasi-zonal jet stream roars across the northern CONUS. Temperatures will be in the 80s across the Panhandles on Monday as a surface low sits in northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado once again. Expecting elevated to potentially low-end critical fire weather conditions across the area as we see breezy and very dry weather continue. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance for high temperatures to reach or slightly exceed 90 degrees in the eastern combined Panhandles, along the Canadian River valley, and Palo Duro Canyon.

The trough is favored to start moving northeast Monday night, and with it we will begin to see some moisture from the Pacific and Gulf to advect into the Panhandles. Some subtle forcing associated with this trough may also work up into the area which could be the catalyst for some showers and thunderstorms through Monday night and into Tuesday. With that said, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in this forecast as operational and ensemble guidance varies on how quick the trough moves and how quick moisture returns into the area. This also leads to some uncertainty in the forecast highs for Tuesday since any potential for rain and thunderstorms to last into Tuesday could lead to cooler high temperatures. The operational 12z ECMWF and its ensembles are around 5-10 degrees cooler than the GFS and its ensembles.

Depending on the track, speed/timing, and evolution of the trough (closed vs. open wave), showers and thunderstorm chances could continue into Tuesday night as well. Overall, rain chances and amounts largely favor the southern Texas Panhandle, and barring unforeseen big changes in the large-scale pattern, it should remain that way. A cold front is expected to move in Tuesday night into Wednesday and early indications are that winds behind the front should be breezy.

The system will begin to move away from the Panhandles on Wednesday and we'll see heights aloft rise as a ridge builds over the Southwestern US. We'll see temperatures warm quickly from Thursday into Friday.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Breezy northerly winds will continue through this morning before they taper off this afternoon and into Saturday evening.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.