textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 949 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

- Breezy northerly winds behind a cold front for Wednesday with some wind gusts approaching 30-35 mph. 10% chance or less for gusts 40-45 mph.

- Thursday through the coming weekend, temperatures will climb to well above average for early February.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 949 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Winds are expected to pick up to around 20 mph out of the north this afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph behind another cold front. There is still a low chance (10% or less) for gusts to reach the 40 to 45 mph range at times, especially in the western half of the FA. Peak winds are expected between 11 am and 3 pm today. Thankfully RHs in the west do not drop until winds start to drop limiting a threat for fire weather conditions today. Thanks to the cold front, afternoon highs are only expected to reach the low to mid 50s. This too will help limit fire weather conditions today.

Winds are expected to calm this evening but return to the west and pick back up to the 10 to 15 mph range by sunrise tomorrow morning. This will add to a wind chill around 5 to 8 degrees below the morning lows which are progged to be in the mid to upper 20s mainly tomorrow morning. Northerly winds aloft today are expected to transition to northwesterly aloft with a ridge building in to the west. This ridge will help afternoon temperatures for Thu rebound back into the 60s. Some sort of surface boundary should transition westerly winds to the north in the afternoon, mainly for central to northern areas of the FA. Winds may maintain the 10 to 15 mph range for a couple of hours before becoming calm and returning to the west going into Thursday night. Despite some slightly higher dewpoints behind this boundary it does not appear to be a cold front as highs should still reach into the upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 949 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

The extended period is looking to remain warm, with well above normal temperatures for this time of year. This will be thanks to some upper level ridging. First, an H5 ridge is progged to have an axis running NW-SE from the Great Basin down into Southern Great Plains Thu into Fri. By Sat afternoon the ridge is progged to shift, centering over TX with the axis running north-south. Upstream, a positively tilted H5 trough is progged to have its axis running from Wyoming down into Baja.

For the most part the extended period is looking dry until about Sunday night into Monday with highs in the 60s to 70s, and overnight lows in the 30s to 40s. The aforementioned H5 trough is progged to start moving east, eventually into West to Central TX. The GFS wants to close off the low associated with this trough at this time. With the projected path of this system some rain showers may sneak into the southern TX Panhandle. Even some ensemble members bring the track a bit northerly. Because of this even the NBM is giving some slight chance PoPs over much of the FA going into Monday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. It will be windy at all terminals today with gusty north winds. The wind gusts will be strongest during the late morning through afternoon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.