textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Low chance of a storm to develop in the southeast Panhandle this evening, and a very low chance that if the storm forms it will be severe with large hail and damaging wind as the main concern.

- Drying trend with warm and breezy winds all week will return critical fire weather to most of the Panhandles. Despite recent rainfall please continue to limit activities that can spark an open flame.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Stalled out ridge over the southeast CONUS and a lingering trough over the central NV/CA area will continue to keep southwest flow over the Panhandle for the rest of today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 80s to near 90. Winds will be out of the south 15 to 20 mph today, and winds will be a bit stronger out of the southwest tomorrow. Given the limited recent rain, today is noted as an elevated day, but tomorrow with stronger winds and very low RH values close to 10 percent we do expect critical Fire Weather.

Further southeast today. We do have some residual moisture from yesterday's weather system, and dewpoints are currently in the upper 50s. Overall, do not expect much to amount to this. Showers and storms may develop in the southeast Panhandle, but confidence is not high that a storm will manage to get organized before it exits east into OK. That being said, on the very low chance ~5% that a storm manages to go severe the concern would be large hail and damaging wind. Timing for a shower or storm to pop up looks to be in the 5 to 9pm time frame.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The trend from the short term discussion continues for the extended. Southwest flow to continue each day, we do see a weak frontal system clip the area on Saturday, that will cool us off into the 70s to low 80s, and given the quick passing surface low, the winds should be more tame in the 5 to 15 mph range keeping fire weather conditions elevated. But by Thursday we could be looking at a mixed bag with both dryline thunderstorms and critical fire weather. Very dry and warm conditions expected as southwest winds and RH values below 10 percent seem favorable. But Thursday evening and possibly into the overnight period, could see a surge of moisture into the southeast Panhandle, due to the upper ridge over the Gulf being pinched further west, allowing moisture that's been keep east of our area to creep back into the southeast Panhandles. Confidence is not high, but it's the next shot at any moisture relief for our area. Friday will be met with another dry and warm day over the Panhandles and that moisture from Thursday night will be pushed off to the east as we have an approaching upper trough that is expected to bring a cold front Friday night into Saturday. The strength of the front could be pretty decent given our prolonged warming trend and that NBM forecast is in the 60s for the most part. Precipitation is not looking very exciting with this front, nor does it look like there's much on the horizon after this frontal passage, so we'll continue with the warm and dry conditions for quite awhile.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with mostly clear skies to few high clouds. No storms expected around any TAF sites today. Breezy winds out of the west to southwest is expected for the TAF period. There may be some wind gusts up to 30kts from 21-03z time period.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

While we did get some decent rain amounts in certain areas, overall this one and done push of moisture is not likely to do much to help the cured fuels, especially since we're now pushing warm, dry, and breezy nearly every day all next week. This will quickly take a lot of the moisture out of the grass fuels. RFTI's are expected to range 4-6 Monday and Tuesday for most areas, the far southeast being an exception. We do have a somewhat of a jet aloft that could help mix down stronger wind gusts, so there is a concern of it being a good balance of both wind and RH in these RFTI values. Fuels under these conditions will likely be working their way back above the 90th percentile pretty quick. Expect elevated to critical Fire Weather each day for the week ahead given these conditions.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001>019-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001>003.