textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Isolated chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday in the eastern combined Panhandles.

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday across the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Tonight, winds will remain gusty until precipitation dissipates, where winds will likely bottom out to less than 10 MPH sustained winds. Winds tonight could remain breezy (up to 20 MPH) in the SE, where pressure gradient remains dense. Relative humidity recovery will be poorest in the southwestern CWA, where retreating moisture will not reach overnight before pushing back east.

On Saturday, minimum relative humidities of 5-10% are expected to be widespread as the retreated dryline pushes back east. Breezy wind conditions on both sides of the dryline along with these low relative humidities will lead to widespread critical fire weather across the combined Panhandles. The dryline will likely set up over the easter Panhandles for much of the day, pushing east into the evening. It is possible for isolated convection to initiate off of the dryline tomorrow afternoon/early evening. However, questionable forcing along the dryline is the main concern. It will likely take deep mixing (due to the elevated mixed layer) in order to initiate convection. The best chances for convection look to be in our northeast CWA, where we see better H700 Theta E advection into the late afternoon/evening hours, which could degrade capping enough to allow for isolated convective initiation.

Overnight Saturday, the dryline retreats back into the eastern Panhandles. A tighter pressure gradient and upper-level support arriving in the form of trough ejection into the panhandles will increase wind speeds, likely to advisory levels on Sunday. Poor RH recovery overnight Saturday in the central and western combined Panhandles, minimum RH values of 5-10% across much of the Panhandles, and increased wind speeds will likely bring widespread critical and possible extreme fire weather conditions. A lack of obvious forcing along the dryline on Sunday will make deep mixing a necessity for any convective initiation for the eastern Panhandles.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday's pattern persists into Monday, with strong winds and poor RH recovery in the western Panhandles. When relative humidities bottom out on Monday (down to 5-10%) critical to extreme fire weather concerns will return. Precipitation chances look to be a similar story to the weekend, with a diffuse dryline setup over the eastern Panhandles with lacking forcing and deep mixing necessary for any initiation.

The cold front has begun to trend slower, likely reaching the OK Panhandle overnight Monday into Tuesday. This will be monitored closely as we gain more confidence in the short term, as this will lead to gusty winds and a wind shift from SSW to N, which will make any ongoing fires behave erratically.

The cold frontal passage will knock down high temperatures throughout next week, warming back up as we approach the end of the forecast period. A wetter pattern is being hinted at for the middle of next week, with an upper level shortwave upstream providing synoptic support for weak surface lifting mechanisms and lingering moisture. However, whether beneficial rainfall will come from this wetter pattern is still uncertain.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. We are watching for VCTS by this afternoon, especially for KAMA/KGUY, but confidence not high enough to include in TAF at this time. With VCTS conditions, if TS develops and moves over TAF sites, erratic winds are possible. Otherwise, overall winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For today, a surface low just off the southern Front Range will see the Panhandles under our more typical down-slope wind set up. This unfortunately means that very dry and hot conditions will continue to be present for another day as locations see single digit relative humidity values and 90 to near triple digit highs. Winds will mostly be out of the southwest to south for the day with speeds thankfully only around 15 to 20 mph with gust upwards of 35 mph. One thing that may need to be watch will be the northwestern Panhandles however. Currently latest CAMs have seen this areas still hold onto some weak instability during the afternoon. While this instability is not looking strong enough to trigger more thunderstorms, it could lead to pyro-cumulus development from any fire that are currently present or start in the area. Otherwise, very poor overnight recovery looks to follow for the western and northern portions of the Panhandles that nigh with some places barley reach relative humidity values of 20 percent.

Sunday will see increasing winds with an approaching upper level system that will induce typical dry-line scenario. Unfortunately, present models have seen the dry well east of the Panhandles, which will result in much of the area under very dry and windy conditions for the day. Relative humidity values are expected to be as low as 5 percent with winds gusting out of the southwester to 40 to 45 mph. This will lead to RFTIs upwards of 7 across the western two thirds of the combined Panhandles. Monday is expected to be a repeat with a potential for winds to gust slightly higher at time in the 45 to 55 mph range. Although lightning will not be of concern, any remaining embers from ongoing fires will have a potential to spark new fires. Sunday has a 10 percent chance to see significant fires, with Monday having as high as a 30 percent chance. A cold front is expected late Monday with low confidence on the exact timing of the front. Generally, for now, expecting the front to enter the Oklahoma Panhandle in the late afternoon/evening time frame.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for OKZ001>003.