textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across most of the Panhandles this afternoon and evening, with best chances favoring the northern Panhandles.

- High temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees are expected throughout this week. Expecting highs to increase further as we head into the holiday weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Showers and storms are gradually waning tonight across the Panhandles, as the environment becomes overworked and our upper level disturbance exits the region. As we go through the morning hours, some additional spotty showers could develop as very subtle vorticity maximums arrive. Regardless, skies will stay partly to mostly cloudy through the day, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Breezy south winds should have no problem maintaining moisture through the day, providing mid 50s to mid 60s dew points across the Panhandles east of a surface trough. In the mid levels, pockets of higher theta-e will be advected northward, with models showing a larger dry pocket gradually approaching from the southeast over the Texas Big Country. In the upper levels, southwest flow aloft will place the right entrance region of a jet streak over the northern combined Panhandles.

The aforementioned variables suggest that as another upper level disturbance arrives this afternoon, scattered storms are most likely to develop across the northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles where lift is best (20-50% POPs). This is also where instability has the best chance to recover (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE), whereas areas further south and east will likely remain overworked from previous storms (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE), especially if the dry pocket to the south infiltrates the area. However, there could still be enough energy with our upper level shortwave to re-invigorate the southern Panhandles enough for a few afternoon-evening storms as well (20-30% POPs). The presence of 15-30kt bulk shear could be supportive enough to get some severe storms with primarily a damaging wind threat, although rogue instances of severe hail can't be ruled out with activity across the north.

Thursday will be another warm and gusty one for the forecast area, with highs in the 90s and 15-25 mph south winds gusting up to 35 mph. The synoptic pattern will be similar to today, but with less upper level support for convective development. If a rogue storm or two were to form Thursday afternoon with daytime heating, it would be most likely across the Western Panhandles.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Ensemble guidance has held fairly steady showing a relatively hotter and quieter trend heading into the holiday weekend. This is still more or less anticipated to hold true, although there are 10- 20% chances for a rogue storm or two in the area during 4th of July festivities. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s to low triple digits Fri & Sat, with 10-20 mph winds out of the south. Going into next week, deterministic models hint that we could have a couple more active weather days (especially Sunday) as the synoptic pattern becomes far more chaotic with weak flow. This signals that storm chances may persist next week, along with near to above average temperatures. Model agreement is relatively poor beyond the early week, but a classic summer pattern of hot days with occasional storm chances appears likely to start July.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Aside from LLWS at all sites overnight, VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will stay out of the south at 10-20kts gusting up to 30kts. Storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening, but confidence in storm timing and location is too low to include PROB30 groups at this time.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.