textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Thunderstorms chances return tonight with a potential severe threat mainly for damaging winds. Mainly in the far western combined Panhandles.

- Widespread severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into evening with all hazards potentially in play.

- Hot temperatures especially this weekend may lead to an elevated heat risk.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

For today, mid level moisture is expected to be poor compared to the last couple of days. At least in the northwestern combined Panhandles. A bit of negative H7 theta-e advection is expected especially across the north and southeast going into this evening. The southwest is expected to be in the better corridor of positive theta-e advection while the OK Panhandle may see positive theta-e advection later in the overnight hours. Thunderstorms are expected to be later in the evening today, with the best chances for severe storms in the western combined Panhandles. However, Dallam, Hartley, and maybe even Cimarron County may see too dry mid levels for anything to materialize. Tds are expected to be a bit lower today. With dry air at the surface damaging wind gusts will be the main severe threat for any storms that survive coming into the Panhandles. Storm coverage is expected to be fairly low this evening as well with maybe 20-30 PoPs. However, after midnight the northeast may eventually develop additional thunderstorms across Beaver and Lipscomb County towards sunrise. With recent rainfall amounts upwards of 6" for parts of these counties, there will be some concerns for flooding under strong efficient thunderstorms both early tomorrow but also tomorrow night.

Tomorrow, a good amount of mid level moisture is expected to return to the entire combined Panhandles. Instability is expected to be present in the afternoon/evening, as long as any shortwaves don't cause early rain stabilizing the atmosphere before the afternoon. MUCAPE values are progged to be between 2000-4000 J/Kg with the northeast Panhandles seeing the higher end of this. Bulk shear is progged to be upwards of 30 to 35 kts. Any supercells that form under this environment may also have some slightly cooler H5 temperatures to work with, leading to an enhanced hail risk with slightly less melting. DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg will provide a straight line wind threat as well. Surface to 3 km helicity is progged to be around 150 m^2/s^2, not super great for a tornado risk but not low enough to brush off a potential tornado with an organized supercell. This will be primarily for the central- north-central to eastern combined Panhandles. For tomorrow, thunderstorms could start in the western Panhandles as early as 1 PM, but likely 3 PM through 11 PM with activity moving from west to east.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Friday, a surface trough is expected to move into the western combined Panhandles. This trough will create a boundary with Tds in the 60s to the east with 40s to the west late in the afternoon. Convergence along and ahead of the boundary may produce some of the strongest storms for Friday. A severe risk is in play with continued mid level moisture, instability, and bulk shear progged once again. Confidence in storm coverage is much lower, especially with this potential boundary in play. Even behind the boundary storms may still form if enough upper level support moves in, in the form of a shortwave. However, the west may be dealing with less available CAPE and more DCAPE posing more of a wind threat. As of right now storms are expected to be more isolated for Friday. At least for the afternoon period. Could see more scattered storms going into the evening/overnight.

Friday night will be the last decent shot at moisture as quasi- zonal flow aloft is progged through the weekend. The beginnings of the surface trough mentioned for Friday is expected to bring much drier Tds and downsloping breezy southwest winds starting Sat. This will allow H85 temperatures to warm to around 30 to 34 degrees C. Widespread 100 degree afternoon temperatures are expected Sat, Sun, and potentially Mon.

Right now, models are pinging Sun to be the warmest day. However, flow aloft is progged to transition to southwest as a mid to upper level high moves east. This is to potentially allow mid to upper level moisture move in from the Pacific. The NBM has introduced a slight chance PoP to the southern TX Panhandle Sunday night. Depending on when cloud cover begins to increase on Sunday from the mid to upper level moisture, peak heating may get shunted a bit and keep progged MaxTs down a couple of degrees.

Sunday onward, with the upper level high and ridging building over the Mississippi River Valley, the FA is expected to stay under southwest flow aloft through Tue. A slight chance of storms is given each evening through Tue with highs on Mon and Tue only being slightly cooler than Sat and Sun.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Some MVFR conditions that may still be present should continue to improve to VFR over the next hour. Thunderstorms may potentially move in from the southwest to west later on after 00Z, confidence remains low for KAMA at this time. KGUY will have a chance for impacts later after 06Z with storms moving in from the northwest. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail with light east to southeasterly winds at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.