textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Dry weather continues through this weekend with high temperatures in the 80s.

- A pattern shift will see chances of showers and thunderstorms return starting Tuesday with better chances following for the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Very broad high pressure system keeping warm temperatures across the west, central, and southeast CONUS will continue into the weekend. The high will become more amplified over the weekend as we get a decent upper trough move into the Pacific northwest. But overall for the rest of today and tomorrow, we remain under dry and warm conditions with winds out of the south in the 5 to 15 mph range.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest on Saturday is progged to dip down over the western CONUS amplifying the ridge over the Mississippi Valley, will transition the flow over the Panhandles to more south southwesterly. This is also expected to collide with Tropical Storm Rachel, which should still remain that status based on NHC's forecast to approach SE California and the Baja connection Saturday night. That system is progged to get absorbed into the upper trough as it dives down over southern California Sunday night.

The big thing to watch is the next tropical storm Simon that's NHC's forecasting to make landfall as a hurricane near the Puerto Vallarta area early Sunday morning. This will get pulled up along the outer perimeter of the high and is set to bring ample moisture to New Mexico, and possibly the Panhandles. Now that could shift west or east and bring a lot of moisture with that path, so there are no guarantees, but right now chances are medium 40-60% for another good surge of moisture over the Panhandles for at least Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. It doesn't appear that it will be raining/storming that whole time, but that is the best window of opportunity base on the various model solutions, but it may be more favorable that the rain period could be between 10 to 20 hours of rainfall once it starts. So the potential for another slow and steady rain will be in place. West of this moisture plume is a slot of dry air that separates the post tropical remnants of Rachel and the post tropical storm Simon. This could be the failure point that we sometimes see in the Panhandles, where Simon's moisture is too far east due to a pattern shift and the western trough takes it's currently projected path as a negative tilt up over the Four Corners. That gives a good dry slot to the Panhandles and we miss out. But again the chances of moisture are still in that 40-60% range, and the second system over CA could always take a more southerly track and bring another round of moisture.

All that being said, mid to late next week as both systems exits there is some uncertainty as to what will be the next system to impact the Panhandles, but there is a hint at some cooler Canadian air that might bring about the first attempt at a freeze or frost

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds out of the south to southwest 5 to 11kts for the most part and mostly clear skies.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.