textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon for the southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Cooler weather and chances for rain are expected Thursday through Friday with the highest rain chances across the western and southern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A weak front is currently splitting the northern half of the CWA from the southern half late this morning. To the north of the front, light northerly winds are expected throughout the day and critical fire weather conditions are not expected. To the south of the front is a different story, west winds are forecast throughout the day with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. The west wind will continue to usher in a drier air mass leading to critical fire weather conditions as drought conditions continue to worsen. Temperatures this afternoon should be cooler as troughing across the northern half of the Plains leads to west to east flow over the Panhandles. H850 temperatures south of the front should increase up to 21-23 Celsius leading to highs in the 80s.

A very similar set-up is forecast on Tuesday with the main change being the stalled boundary may be oriented from southeast to northwest. Once again, south of the boundary will feature breezy, warm, and dry conditions leading to another low end critical fire weather threat. On the other side of the boundary, there may still be some breezy wind at times, but the wind is forecast to be out of the east leading to higher moisture remaining across the area. The weak front is expected to push southward Tuesday evening into the overnight, bringing a somewhat cooler airmass over the region. In fact, due to lows in the mid 30s and light winds, frost may form across portions of the northern Panhandles going into Wednesday morning.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

With the aforementioned cold front south of the Panhandles and troughing moving in from the north and west, the start of a downward trend in temperatures will begin on Wednesday. The cooler air mass will remain in place through at least the start of this upcoming weekend as moisture leads to precipitation chances and widespread cloud cover through at least Friday. As the main trough axis moves over the southern High Plains on Friday, high temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 50s. There are certainly solutions out there that keep portions of the central and west in the 40s for highs on Friday; quite the cool start to May is looking likely for the Panhandles! Temperatures should slowly increase back into the 60s and 70s next weekend.

Well now for the more important part of the long term, the potential for rain showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance continues to depict an H500 low pressure system moving onshore across California/Baja California and continuing east towards west Texas on Thursday into Friday. Out ahead of the low pressure system, good moisture transport from the Pacific and Gulf of America should move in across west Texas and at least portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles during this time frame. Model guidance continues to diverge in where the best moisture placement should be located and the track/strength of the low pressure system. In general, there is fairly good agreement that west Texas will receive beneficial rainfall, but unfortunately the further north into the CWA you go the confidence in that scenario panning out decreases, especially for the northeast. The better moisture looks to remain south of the Panhandles along with the higher rain totals, but there are still models out there that provide half an inch to an inch or slightly more to portions of the area. The deterministic and their respective ensembles still paint a wide swath of half an inch of rainfall across the Panhandles, whereas the AI deterministic and ensembles are not as generous with regards to rainfall. They still provide a half inch of rainfall to portions of the west and south, but the rest of the area generally remains around a quarter inch or less. Given how previous systems have panned out for our area, there is certainly skepticism on how much rain the area receives, but at least portions of the drought stricken southern High Plains will see some beneficial rainfall later this week. Just where and how much are still to be determined.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF cycle. Main aviation concern will be low clouds moving in over KGUY starting around 12z. MVFR conditions are currently forecast for KGUY and could impact KDHT as well. Otherwise, west wind will be the strongest at KAMA out ahead of a weak cold front with gusts up to 30 to 35 kts before decreasing through the rest of this TAF issuance.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Rest of today...low end critical fire weather conditions are being observed across the Texas Panhandle. The wind is out of the west at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to potentially 40 mph. Dry conditions are expected this afternoon with relative humidity values dropping down to the single digits. A southward moving cold front will switch the wind to out of the north and weaker wind will end the critical fire weather conditions. Just how far south the front gets during the day is uncertain and portions of the Red Flag Warning may need to be cancelled early.

For Tuesday...a very similar scenario is in store with west wind out ahead of a cold front and lighter, north to east wind behind the front. For areas behind the front, critical fire weather conditions are not expected due to higher humidity and light wind. Just where the front sets up is uncertain and will have an impact on the low end critical fire weather conditions. The southwestern TX Panhandle currently has the higher chances for staying in the warm, breezy, and dry airmass, so a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006>020- 317.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ006-011- 012-016>018-317.

OK...None.