textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting Wednesday with activity possible clear into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Present model agreement continues to see the upper-level ridge and associate high pressure hold over the Panhandles this afternoon and evening. With this more stagnate pattern in place, present CAMs have seen any activity developing off the Southern Front Range struggle to actually move off the mountains and into the Panhandles. Still a few of the early morning CAMs runs have tried to force a shower or two across our west this evening. However, given the present dry air being seen across our south and the very weak storm motion today, those chances are more focused in our far northwest.

Moving into Wednesday, does see the beginning of a pattern shift as models see an upper-level trough try to force it way east out of the Alaska Region. In doing this the trough will force the upper-level ridge and its associated high pressure to retreat southwest out the Panhandles. This retreat will then open us up to better potential for showers and thunderstorms that evening as the first or many short-waves push across. In terms of severe potential for the today, most model soundings have see us struggle in terms of instability with any CAPE values struggling to reach 1000 J/kg. However, those same models are showing decent inverted V style soundings with DCAPE upwards 1700 J/kg. With this signal present, it would possible to see thunderstorms capable of producing outflow wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, especially in the north where both chances and ingredients are at their best. Meanwhile in our south, present models look to favor drier and hotter conditions holding with the morning and early afternoon seeing southwesterly flow down in the lower levels. With southwesterly flow present, potential will be there for temperature to be slightly warmer than models are calling for which could result much of the south reaching or nearing the triple digit mark that afternoon. In some of our hotter locations, like the Palo Duro Canyon, these hotter temperature can be amplified to the point that a heat related product may be needed.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

As we progress towards the end of the week, model do see the retreat of the high holding which will allow for the Panhandles to fall back into a more northwesterly to zonal upper-level flow pattern. This patter is more ideal in opening us up to more short- wave activity expected to push through clear into the weekend. As it stands, present model runs keep chances of showers and thunderstorms present each day with best chances mostly holding in our north. Thursday and Friday in particular, continues to trend as best chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms with models depicting more potent short-waves pushing across the Central Great Plains that afternoon. Of course the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could be present each day. However, current models runs for Thursday are more focused on winds being the main impact given the high amounts of DCAPE present.

Regardless, still lingering high pressure to our southwest will look to keep temperature hot with most locations looking to stay in the mid to upper 90s for the rest of the week. However in some of our locations like the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, the terrain influence could see temperatures rise to much more. This potential will only look to increase as we near Sunday with many of the models seeing the ridge and its upper-level high return and push further north into the Great Plains for most of next week. Should this trend hold, then the Panhandles could be in for very hot and dry week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Dry conditions are expected to hold through this afternoon and evening with terminals expected to stay VFR through the present package. However, chances of showers and thunderstorms could be present as we move into the late evening and night time hours. At this time, impacts would mostly be focused in our far northwest with confidence too low to mention any impacts for KGUY.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.