textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through at least Wednesday, mainly late afternoon and evenings. Strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. - Widespread mid-90 to low/mid-100 degree temperatures are expected from Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Quasi-zonal flow is progged to continue tonight, then transition to southwest flow aloft tomorrow. A mid to upper level ridge is expected to transition east and center over the Mississippi River Valley before building and maintaining southwest flow aloft for the Panhandles over the next several days.

For tonight, thunderstorm chances return mainly after 7 PM into the middle of the night. A shortwave is expected to spark storms off in eastern NM and move east across the area. There is quite a bit of uncertainty to the extent of the storms or how severe they will become. The atmosphere is fairly worked over from last night and surface based instability is either going to stay capped or get capped quickly after dark. Many forecast soundings show dry air moving in at the H85 to H65 layer with parcels lifting above that. If that is the case there will be very little instability to work with. However, a low level jet is expected to develop, but depending on timing and moisture levels at that time, this could help with lift before the dry air moves in. Regardless, some of the CAMs do show thunderstorms moving east to west through the evening and overnight. The HRRR solution focuses on the OK Panhandle. While the NAMNEST focuses across the western half of the combined Panhandles with dying showers as they reach the eastern Panhandles. The RRFS has activity early on in the north, then developing a line that moves west to east through the TX Panhandle.

With bulk shear progged in the 30 to 40 kt range would not completely rule out a supercell especially early on in the evening and further north in the OK Panhandle. In order to get severe hail tonight a supercell will likely be needed to form. However, mostly expecting a damaging wind threat, especially with Bufkit soundings showing onion shapes in the lower levels as rain is starting to be produced.

Tomorrow, a surface trough is progged to set up over the area and push higher Tds in the 60 off to the east. How far east remains yet to be seen. However, should see Tds drop into the 40s and lower 50s in the eastern half of the combined Panhandles. With the surface trough breezy southwest winds are expected to overtake much of the combined Panhandles. Along the eastern edge of the trough some positive H7 theta-e advection may be present with higher Tds leading to some convergence. Ahead of the trough the environment may be capable of producing isolated supercells. Forecast soundings depict inverted V with how hot temperatures are expected to be (triple digits) along with lowering Tds. Bulk shear is progged about 35 kts and would not rule out a supercell. However, likely to see melting hail unless the storm can organize and keep hail stones lofted for a time. A marginal risk has been given to the southeastern TX Panhandle by SPC with the new Day 2 outlook. Further west where dewpoints will be lower and less H7 moisture is likely to be, forecast soundings for Amarillo show quite a bit of a CAP. So the exact extent of the surface trough will be key for where isolated thunderstorms may be capable of forming.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Sunday onward, southwest flow aloft is expected to be maintained for the combined Panhandles with only a slight cool down into the 90s Tue through Thu. Should see influence of better surface moisture in the south to southeast TX Panhandle depending on the day. This will lead to PoPs in the 10 to 30 range, mainly across the south-central to southeastern TX Panhandle. Possibly reaching up into Beaver County, like for Tuesday, as well as the entire southeastern half of the combined Panhandles.

Sunday has the potential to be warmer than Saturday. However, the NBM has been bias correcting warmer and may not be picking up on some cloud development from lingering atmospheric moisture leading to the development of a Cu field. Also, some Pacific moisture may be riding the southwest flow aloft into the area creating some high clouds which could still help out with insolation. Therefore, have lowered temps only slightly from what the NBM suggests for a high on Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with light winds becoming southwest around 10 to 15 kts. Increasing to 20 kts after 12Z Saturday. Thunderstorms may be present across the combined Panhandles after 00Z Sat and last through about 06Z. Highest confidence for potential impacts remain for KGUY and KAMA with prob30 groups at this time. KDHT has a much lower chance and have left out mentions at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.