textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Very high chance (>70%) for at least moderate winter impacts with a low chance (10-30%) of major impacts starting as early as Friday morning through Sunday, with snow covered roads becoming impassable in hardest hit areas. This includes major roads such as I-40.

- Cold event with sub-zero wind chills starting late Friday through early Sunday. Max temperatures are expected to stay below freezing Friday through at least Sunday. There is a low chance for this to an extended event with the highs not getting above freezing until Wednesday (chances increase if higher snowfall totals are realized).

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Bottom Line: A winter system will bring significant impacts across much of the panhandles through initial light freezing precipitation Friday and then heavy snowfall on Saturday.

Today is the calm before the storm with a neutral pattern across the panhandles. This will keep the weather dry and relatively warm for the remainder of today. Change is already noticeable with extensive cloud cover from the upcoming weather system already spreading across the region.

Friday the winter weather system starts for the panhandles. This will see low level moisture spread across the panhandles during the morning hours of Friday. This will take the form of a low level cloud deck the spreads south to north across the area. While this is occurring cold air sinks southward across the panhandles during the morning hours. Aloft the jet will slowly be increasing in strength over the region gradually increasing the lift present. All these will combine to kick off the winter system through causing light freezing drizzle to light freezing rain. This will start off very patchy and isolated becoming more extensive as the morning hour drag on. Even as it becomes more extensive the intensity of the freezing drizzle and rain will remain steady and very low. Accumulations of ice during this time will most likely be low of only a trace to half an inch. Still such ice can easily cause slippery roads which can make the morning commute hazardous. Then during the afternoon there will likely be increasingly thick mid to upper level cloud across the region. Eventually these clouds will get thick enough to produce ice crystals that can drop into the low clouds. These ice crystals will absorb the freezing precipitation and fall to the ground as sleet. As clouds continue to thicken then the snow will transition fully over to snow. Snowfall during this time is still likely to be light with low accumulations. The system will fully mature come Saturday as the upper level system moves from the desert southwest to the southern plains. As this occurs the overrunning conditions will fully mature during the morning hours of Saturday. This will bring the first round of moderate to heavier snow that can lead to several inches of snow accumulations. During the afternoon hours the overrunning setup weakens leading a to a break in the moderate to heavy snowfall for the panhandles. This will lead to a period of lighter snow accumulations of a inch or two. Then the upper level portion of the weather system pass across the panhandles during the late afternoon and evening of Saturday. This will provide the lift needed to cause moderate to heavy bands of snow across the panhandles. These bands of snow will likely be the heaviest associated with this winter system representing its zenith for snowfall intensity. Accumulations during this time will most likely be 2 to 4 inches with a moderate chance for localized higher amounts. The winter system will depart the area late on Saturday drawing down the moisture through the overnight and morning hours of Sunday. The snow will in large end during by Sunday afternoon with the departure of the weather system. Through the whole winter system snow amounts across the panhandles will most likely range from 2 inches in the far NW to 8 inches in the southern and eastern panhandles. There is a moderate chance for even higher snow amounts that can go upwards of a foot. However, there is a low chance that we have some low level warm air intrude across the panhandles that can lower the snow amounts closer to 1 to 6 inches. Regardless of amounts such snow will most likely lead to hazardous travel conditions across large swaths of the panhandles including all cities, towns, and major roads.

A further hazard that this winter system will bring to the panhandles is very cold air. This will see the high temperature occur Friday morning with the day becoming progressively colder so that by the afternoon the panhandles is below freezing. It will only get colder from there with the Saturday morning lows down to the just below zero or positive single digits. Saturday is unlikely to warm with single digits to low teens for highs and another round of just below zero to positive single digits going into Sunday. All this cold air will be coupled with breezy and gusty winds which will tank the windchill through the weekend. This can see windchill downs to the negative teens across much of the panhandles representing a large threat for cold injuries. Any exposed skin can rapidly get frostbite in such temperatures. Make sure to have adequate shelter and heating for any person, pet, or animal for this weekend.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Sunday the weather system fully departs the southern plains with any lingering snow flurries ending during the afternoon. Any snow during this time is unlikely to lead to any significant accumulation. Higher pressure slowly builds back over the southern plains through next week bringing increasing heat to the panhandles. However this heat will most likely be mitigated some by the snow from the winter system. This means it may take several days for the panhandles to finally go above freezing and melt off the snow. Otherwise the weather will most likely be dry and calm through much of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through about 10-12z at all TAF sites, with conditions falling to MVFR/IFR thereafter, and possibly LIFR late in the TAF period. A winter storm is on the way and the low clouds are expected to start around 10z with possible freezing drizzle at KAMA from 10z onward. Right now confidence is too low to have this added to KDHT and KGUY as the surface layer may be too dry, and it may be cold enough to get snow crystals, so if PROB30s or TEMPO groups would be added to those sites would lean more towards light snow. Winds will mainly be out of the east to northeast for most of the TAF period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ001-006.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ002>005-007>010-012>015-017>020-317.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ003>005-008>010-012>020-317.

Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ011-016.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ001.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ002-003.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ003.