textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the southern and eastern Panhandles and some of the storms could become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards.

- Thunderstorm chances may continue each afternoon into the evening across the Panhandles.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of this week with the potential for heat illnesses if proper precautions are not taken for those that are doing activities outdoors, particularly on Monday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Height rises are expected throughout the day today as high pressure builds in over the southern US extending towards the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will rise in response to stronger WAA at H850 on Monday afternoon. Highs during the peak heating of the afternoon should reach the upper 90s to 100s across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Very hot temperatures may reach or exceed 105 degrees at the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon State Park and in the lower elevation of the Canadian River Valley, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for these locations given that potential. Heat illnesses may result if proper precautions are not taken for those that are outside. A surface trough and a weak surface boundary will set up from southwest to northeast across the south central TX Panhandle to the eastern OK Panhandle by mid afternoon. To the east of these features, sufficient moisture and instability are expected to be in place along with strong heating which could lead to storm development by late afternoon. CAPE values upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg are depicted in forecast soundings which is supportive for severe storm development. Wind shear is quite weak so storms may struggle to sustain their cores, which is not a surprise as we are under high pressure. With initial updrafts, large hail will be the primary threat but as storms collapse, damaging wind gusts will become the threat with any storms. Anything that is able to form should begin to dissipate by mid to late evening.

Not much changes on Tuesday, other than surface moisture will be higher across the entire area and WAA is not forecast to be quite as strong as Monday. Highs should still reach the mid 90s to 100s once again as high pressure remains in place. Troughing across the northwestern US should dig far enough south on Tuesday to open up the Panhandles to PVA associated with a shortwave by peak heating during the afternoon. Showers and storms are expected for form across eastern NM and the western Panhandles during this time frame. Coverage should be higher on Tuesday given that there is synoptic scale lift, so more scattered storms are expected. Instability values are not anywhere close to what they are expected to be on Monday, but a strong storm cannot be ruled out with strong wind gusts being the primary hazard. Any showers and storms that do form should be able to sustain themselves for longer due to the synoptic scale forcing so the threat for lightning and rain may continue into the overnight hours. With the increase surface moisture and high pressure over the region, overnight lows each night will be quite warm in the 60s to 70s across the Panhandles.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Wednesday is forecast to be the hottest day of this upcoming week as WAA at H850 peaks with models suggesting those temperatures may approach 35 Celsius by late afternoon. These very hot low level temperatures will lead to widespread surface highs in the 100s for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The southwest surface wind will usher in drier air for the central and west on Wednesday which will aid in leading to the very hot temperatures. A dry line should set up across the eastern Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon and that feature will allow for the potential for isolated storms to develop to the east of it during peak heating. Any storm chances are very low, but if anything does form, there is a lot of instability to work with so any storms could become severe.

The ridge of high pressure will become suppressed to the south of the southern High Plains late this week into the weekend as upper level troughing takes over across the northern tier of the US. With westerly flow expected across the Panhandles, this will open the door for shortwave troughs to move over the region which would provide chances for afternoon showers and storms. In addition to the shower and storm chances, temperatures will also cool down with the stronger axis of hot H850 temperatures remains off to the west. Details are uncertain, but severe storms could be possible if convective ingridients are in place.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Surface winds have become light at all sites this morning. Later this afternoon, winds should become breezy once again generally from the southwest. Later tonight, wind speeds may stay breezy at KAMA but should decrease and become light for KDHT and KGUY.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ008>010-317.

OK...None.