textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms potential for this afternoon and evening in the eastern TX panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

- Drying trend starts today which heralds the return of elevated to critical fire weather conditions that will persist through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The weather system that cause the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across much of the panhandles continues to push eastward out of the area this morning. In doing so it is drawing away much of the rain showers and thunderstorms activity into Oklahoma proper. There will still be a little lingering moisture over the eastern panhandles for the rest of this morning. So there remains a low chance for isolated rain showers in the eastern Texas panhandle for the rest of this morning. Even if a rain shower occurs this morning it wont result in much if any rainfall. With the departure of the weather system a southwest flow will develop across the southern plains. This flow will allow another small scale weather system to quickly pass across the southern plains for this afternoon and evening. This weather system will cause gusty southwest winds across the panhandles that will drive in drier air from New Mexico. The dry air will push all the way to the eastern panhandles before bunching up against more moist air. This will create a relatively diffuse dry line in the eastern portions of the Texas panhandle. This dry line will serve as the initiation point for thunderstorms during the mid afternoon hours. Now there are some large uncertainties associated with these potential afternoon thunderstorms regarding both the placement of the dryline and the quantity of moisture. The dry line still currently favors setting up in the eastern TX panhandle but there is a moderate chance it can set up further eastward in Oklahoma proper. If the eastern placement occurs then any storms that form along the dryline would be east of the panhandles. As for the moisture it is questionable if enough moisture will be present over the panhandles to cause thunderstorms. The higher moisture remains to the east towards Oklahoma proper while lesser moisture remains in the Texas panhandle. So there is also potential for thunderstorms to form only in Oklahoma proper while the Texas panhandle remains dry due to a sufficient amount of moisture. So there are two failure modes that would have the same effect of preventing Texas storms. As such the chances for any storm to occur remains low for the Texas panhandle this afternoon. The environment for Sunday afternoon is showing instability of 2000-2500 J/kg with shear of 30 kt across the eastern Texas panhandle. This means that the environment is favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms that can produce large hail and damaging winds. So once again the limiting factor is not the environmental instability but moisture as a fuel source. Regardless, any storm that forms within the Texas panhandle will quickly push eastward into Oklahoma proper. So the window for severe weather will be narrow and come to quick close if any storm forms at all.

Now for areas west of the dryline it will be a dry day with gusty winds through much of the daytime hours. The combination of the gusty winds and dry air will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions mainly in the far northwestern panhandles. The area for the critical will be limited thanks to the rainfall from the last few days.

Going into Monday a weather system deepens over the western portions of the U.S. This will keep a southwest flow across the southern plains and the southern Rockies. As the day progress the strength of the southwest flow will increase in strength. This is important as these will help to setup a lee trough east of the front range of the rockies. This will help to drive gusty southwest winds across the panhandles for much of Monday that will bring in ample dry air. The dry air coupled with with the windy conditions will lead to panhandles wide elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical fire weather conditions will be confined mainly to the northwestern panhandles which have seen little rainfall from previous days. There is a wild card with a little mid level moisture moving across the western panhandles during the afternoon. This has the potential to cause virga that can cause localized stronger winds and thus worse fire weather conditions. Now the dry and windy conditions will play a role in drying out fuels that did receive rainfall so it will help to worsen fire weather conditions later in the week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Tuesday the weather system has a high chance of ejecting out of the intermountain west across the southern plains. In doing so it will most likely bring a further round of dry and windy conditions across the panhandles. Thanks to the early dry and windy days more widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur within the panhandles.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a day inbetween weather system giving the panhandles a break from the windy and dry conditions.

Then for Thursday and Friday another weather system is shaping up to impact the southern plains. This weather system is most likely going to keep it dry sector across the panhandles. This means that another round of dry and windy conditions is more likely than not to occur for the panhandles. This would to more elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles for both of these days.

There is a low chance for the dry and windy conditions to persist into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours. Surface winds will be increasing later this morning and the wind direction will be steadily veering to flow from the west- southwest. During the peak wind times this afternoon, the wind direction will stay WSW and gusts could be up to 35 kts. By the evening hours, wind speeds should decline and stay around 10 kts through the rest of the period. Tonight, the wind direction will also revert back to being from the southwest.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.