textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast from today through Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Very strong wind gusts are expected today and a High Wind Warning remains in affect due to the potential for wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

- Blowing dust may lead to reduced visibility this morning through the evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Strong wind gusts are finally starting to slow down across the Panhandles early this evening. Even with that being said, we are still observing some wind gusts up to 40-50 mph for some areas across the Panhandles. These winds will start to slowly decrease beyond sunset but the sustained winds will remain breezy all night around 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts. Blowing dust concerns have greatly decreased based on observations and satellite imagery. The only place that appears to still have widespread blowing dust concerns appears to be the eastern Panhandles. We have cancelled the Blowing Dust Advisory for the central and west given this downward trend. No other products are being adjusted at this time, but cannot rule out needing to extend the Red Flag Warning a few more hours this evening if winds remain breezy to gusty and relative humidity values stay low.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

As of early this afternoon, latest satellites imagery as seen cloud cover clearing out well ahead of schedule with the trough and associated Pacific front now forcing their way into the Panhandles. This trough has been accompany by a very strong upper- level jet that has continuously trended with 500mb winds upwards of 80 to 100kt and mid to low levels winds upwards of 50-60kt. The presence of this jet as well as the front have seen these upper- level winds translate into very strong wind gust at the surface. As it stands, multiple observation stations have seen southwesterly to westerly winds easily reach 35 to 45 mph with gust above 60 mph present as well. However, given the potential, it is not impossible for a few isolated areas can still experience gusts closer to 70 mph. Regardless, a High Wind Warning has is in places for all counties expected the far southeast, where a Wind Advisory is in place, until 7 PM this evening. Unfortunately, these strong winds are also going to come in conjunction with dry conditions across the Panhandles with most models seeing RH values fall as low as 15 to 10% for the day. This combination has lead ongoing critical fire weather across the Panhandles with a Red Flag Warning currently in place until 8 PM. Thankfully, latest CAMs have been seeing some relief as many runs have seen good RH recovery overnight with potential to see values back over 50% . A secondary concern that has been seen building on satellite, is the potential for blowing dust across the Western Panhandles. Currently, latest reports have seen brief window of visibility loss with some images indicating visibility getting as low as 1 mile. Given the likelihood of these conditions continuing to build with the present winds, a Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued in across the Western Panhandles.

Moving into the Wednesday model agreement looks to keep elevated to critical fire weather present as the present upper-level jet looks to hold under zonal flow. This flow will allow for strong upper-level winds to keep bleeding down to the surface Wednesday resulting another round of winds in the 25 to 30 mph range with gusts greater than 40 mph not out of the question most of the Panhandles. However, in the Northwest, present models are see a much more efficient bleed down possible with winds having the potential to reach 30 to 40 mph with gust upwards of 55 possible. With these winds in play, it has been decided to issue a Wind Advisory for the Northwestern Panhandles from 11 AM and lasting until 6 PM. What may be more concerning for the day is that, unlike Tuesday, a lack of cloud cover will likely see RH values much lower with potential to see some locations dip below 10%. This concern has prompted another Red Flag Warning for the Wednesday afternoon with conditions likely to last into the evening hours. Potential for blowing is also present for the day; however conditions may be less potent given the weaker winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

As we close out the work week, conditions still look to be primed to see some form of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Thursday. However, present model agreement is seeing these concerns trend more for the dry conditions and fuels rather than the winds. Regardless these wind will have to be monitored as model agreement see a trough brush our north that afternoon. This trough will bring with it a cold frontal passage that will off very little in precipitation chances, but will see winds shift to a more northerly direction. Otherwise, fire weather concerns begin weaken behind the front as it brings with it cooler temperatures

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Gusty west winds with gusts up to 35-45 kts will continue for a few more hours before decreasing. Sustained winds will remain around 15 kts all night and will slowly become southwesterly. Winds increase a few hours beyond sunrise once again with sustained winds around 25-30 kts with gusts up to 35-45 kts through the end of this 24 hour period. Blowing dust may occur once again but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast each day from today through Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Today...Very poor relative humidity (RH) is present this afternoon with may stations reporting values below 15% already. The west to southwest winds on today are currently forecast to be the highest for this upcoming week as the jet stream moves over the Panhandles. Widespread high winds are present with gusts upwards of 55-65 mph (cannot rule out some gusts close to 70 mph across the north and west) during the late morning into the afternoon. Another day of dry conditions with low RHs is expected and this will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions as a result. Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values could be as high as 7 to 8 (out of 10) during the afternoon. Hot temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are also forecast across the region, with the hottest temperatures across the southeastern Texas Panhandle.

Wednesday...Yet another warm, dry, and windy day is in store which will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions once again. Winds will still be quite strong, but they will be a bit weaker when compared to Tuesday. The highest gusts are forecast to be upwards of 45-55 mph, with the strongest winds across the northwest. Even though RH recovery will be decent to start the day (45-55 percent), much drier air is expected to move in and RH values will drop down to around 8-15 percent area wide on Wednesday afternoon. Due to the drier air, RFTI value could be slightly higher on Wednesday with the peak values around 6 to 7. Even though the wind gust potential will decrease going into Wednesday night, sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph will continue into Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue on both of these days due to the dry and windy conditions. Thankfully, winds on these days will continue a slow downward trend but there still could be sustained winds of 20-30 with gusts up to 45 mph. Winds on Thursday may have more of a northwest component before a front moves through during the late afternoon into the evening. Behind the front, winds out of the northeast to east are expected for at least parts of the Panhandles. Winds look to be rather light on Thursday night, but a wind shift could still lead to fires moving a different direction. Winds on Friday should become breezy and southerly once again. The lowest RH values on both days are forecast to be in the teens.

Scoleri

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>014- 016>018-317.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Wednesday for TXZ001>020- 317.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for TXZ001-002- 006-007.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ004-005- 009-010-014-015-019-020.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ015-019-020.

OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Wednesday for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for OKZ001-002.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ003.