textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Patch fog remains possible this morning for the Northwestern Panhandles.

- A new system is set to move across this weekend bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

- More active weather could follow next week, which could resulting in breezy conditions alongside chance of precipitation.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

As of late last night present observations had already seen the backdoor cold front fully through Western Oklahoma with the Eastern Panhandles just catching the tail end of it. While this front has done little to stave off our dry pattern, it has allow for cooler air to work its way into the Panhandles. This cooler air will allow for afternoon highs to stay closer the 60s today. However, present CAMs have also see this cool down result in better moisture content for the Panhandle, which has increase our chances of seen patchy fog early this morning. At this time, best chances are holding mostly in the Northwestern Panhandles where temperatures should be their coolest. Regardless, this fog will be quick to move out this later this morning as winds begin to pick up with the incoming system for Saturday.

As for Saturday itself, model agreement continues have good agreement on the trough moving across the Southwestern United States and into the Panhandles that morning. At this time, present CAMs continue have widespread chances of precipitation present with some model even giving chances over 70 percent by Saturday afternoon and evening. Unfortunately, these high chances have not been equating to high rainfall totals as most models have only seen PWAT values hover around 0.8 to 1 inches. With only this much moisture to work with, most CAMs have been keeping totals around 0.5 to 0.75 inches with only few areas in the southeast having around 40 to 60 percent chance of exceeding that. As for our thunderstorm potential, present CAMs are seeing a heavy lack of instability with most runs barley scraping up CAPE values above 300 J/kg. This has put our confidence more towards showers with embedded thunderstorms. However, some CAMs are still trending to some decent wind shear being present that will need to be monitor over the next 24 hours. Regardless, this active pattern will keep the Panhandles cool with highs for Saturday only hitting the 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Present model agreement continues to hold for a trough and its associated surface low to be slowly making its way out of the Panhandles Sunday. The exit of the trough will mostly keep any chance of precipitation across the Eastern Panhandles with some potential for showers in the north thanks to any moisture that can wrap around the low pressure system. While this activity may not amount to much beyond some light rainfall, most models do agree to it leaving the Panhandles cool for Sunday with afternoon highs only reaching into the 40s. By Monday, these cool temperatures will look to translate into some chilly morning lows with most locations nearing freezing that morning. Moving into the Tuesday and the middle of next week, present model agreement does see another system try to push across just our north in Colorado. Currently, this position is not very favored for the Panhandles with present ensemble only giving around a 10 to 20 percent chance of precipitation in the Western Panhandles. Still this passage has the potential to bring gusty winds during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with most model expecting a decent jet streak to follow alongside it. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to warm slightly form the weekend activity but still stay in the 50 to 60s for afternoon highs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Monitoring the potential for some MVFR/IFR cigs through 18Z for KGUY/KDHT. Current obs for both locations as of the start of the 12Z TAF have FEW008. Could increase in low cig coverage, and will AMD accordingly if it occurs. Otherwise, VFR after 18Z until near the end of the TAF period where MVFR cigs then try to return for KDHT. Winds overall will be out of the southeast at 5-15 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.