textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and again for the southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Cooler weather and chances for rain are expected Thursday through Friday with the highest rain chances across the western and southern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles today, with minimal impacts. The main focus will be the lee surface low that will hold together in eastern NM and keep very warm dry air across the southwest Panhandles, while cooler air associated with the surface high building to the east continues to try to push the front southwest. Overall, the front is not projected to move much today and we're looking at highs close to 90 in the southwest Panhandle, and the northeast may not even reach 70. Fire Weather will be the main concern today in the southwest as a result of the warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

Cold front tonight will shift further south and hold over the Panhandles on Wednesday. Main result of this will be mild high temperatures in the 70s with partly cloudy skies. We do have a shortwave that is progged to move across the Panhandle tomorrow evening which could result in showers/storms off the mountains to move into the northwest Panhandles, and for that do have some pops added.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Upper level trough will be swinging across the Baja on Thursday, southwest flow ahead of the trough will transport mid level moisture to the Panhandles. This will be the start to the two day event that favors our best chances at precipitation to the Panhandles. Prior to the arrival of the trough there is still the back side of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes region that will keep the Panhandles under cooler temperatures. Highs may only get into the low 60s due to the cooler air in place and ample cloud cover across the area. There is a hint as well as to some shower and storms that may trigger off the Rockies Thursday afternoon and make their way to the Panhandle in the evening. As we move into Friday this is where our rain chances look to peak, as we have the main moisture plume progged to move across the west Texas area, as well lingering cold air from that Great Lakes trough, and highs will only be in the 50s, maybe 40s for some areas. A fully saturated column of air is favored for at least the southern Panhandles, where the north is still in question. This has the potential to be a good stratiform rain event for at least the south, as long as the main moisture plume holds course, but as we've seen in the past this can shift north or south and change things in a big way. A northerly shift would add moisture to all aspects of the Panhandles, but right now the northern Panhandles are at about a 55% chance of staying below a half an inch of rain for the Thu-Fri event, but the southern Panhandles still stand at 80-90% chance of exceeding that half an inch of rain.

By Saturday high pressure will begin to push in from the Four Corners and there may be some light lingering showers, but at this point the main precipitation threat will be done, and we'll begin a warming trend back into the 60 to low 70s on Saturday, with low 80s on Sunday and Monday. There is a chance on Monday that we get some showers and storms out of the northwest flow for the northern Panhandles on Monday, but right now only about a 20% chance.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR ceilings will remain over KDHT for the first few hrs of the 12z TAF period, but will clear out later this morning. VFR conditions are forecast at KDHT and KAMA throughout the period. Winds will be out of erratic directions throughout the period due to a shifting surface boundary, but will remain around 5-15 kts at KDHT and KGUY. Breeziest conditions will be at KAMA this morning- afternoon at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts out of the west.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Lee surface low will hold in place tonight which will push the front back to the northeast later today. As a result we will once again have critical fire weather across the southwestern Panhandles. Current Red Flag Warning accounts for where we anticipate the front to stall and accounts for fairly light winds right along the frontal boundary. South and west of the front will be very dry and the southwestern Panhandles will see the stronger winds mainly 15 to 20 with gusts up to 30 mph, but again RH values down around 6 percent could result in RFTI's of 4, if wind over perform 20-25 RFTI's up to 6 will be possible. Closer to the front RFTI's of 0-2 expected as winds will be much lighter and northeast of the front will have higher RH values and lower winds, so should only be elevated if at all.

Tonight front will push back through and a surface high will build over the Mississippi Valley that will help keep the easterly winds and higher dewpoints in play, and should end the Fire Weather threat for possibly the rest of the forecast period, as Thursday-Saturday still has about a medium chance (40-60%) of being a wetting rain event, with no Fire Weather signals on Sunday or Monday after the system moves through. Should the rain event fail to pan out, it looks as if the Panhandle will be under cooler temperatures and higher RH values to help give the fuels a break, and still keep the Fire Weather concerns in check for the rest of the Forecast period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ006-011-012-016>018-317.

OK...None.