textproduct: Amarillo

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

An upper-level ridge will stay in place, centered over the Tennessee River Valley, on Tuesday with a longwave trough over the Western US. A surface low will develop in northeastern New Mexico during the day, and we will have yet another breezy day. Temperatures will be in the 90s across the Panhandles, but with dew points in the 60s across a portion of the area, we could see some triple digit heat indices if dew points overachieve (again).

A surface trough will work into the western Panhandles by the late afternoon, and around that time we will see a subtle shortwave move in. This should kick off isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Panhandles. Forecast soundings across the Panhandles show moderate CAPE (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), but only 15-25 kts effective shear. This suggests multicell thunderstorms will be the more likely storm mode. DCAPE values are weaker than they have been in the past few days, but 1000-1300 J/kg with a 20-25 kt storm motion should still be sufficient for the potential for wind gusts up to around 65 mph. 500mb temperatures will be somewhat warm; around -6C to -8C. These temperatures aloft and shear aren't the most favorable for hail, but with the amount of instability expected, cannot entirely rule out large hail. Another issue with the prospect for large hail is that PWATs are expected to be quite high at 1.3" to 1.8" across much of the area, strongly suggesting any thunderstorm will produce heavy rain. This means that melting hail can be expected. Several 30/00z CAMs also suggest that a line of thunderstorms could develop, and the mean wind could cause the thunderstorm to repeatedly move over the same area. Rain rates between 1 to 2 inches per hour can be expected, though won't be surprised if slightly higher amounts can be materialized. This would lead to a localized flash flood threat. Unfortunately there isn't any consistency regarding where this could set up other than somewhere in the Texas Panhandle, so this will be a situation where mesoscale details will be important as it could lead us to identifying the corridor in a nowcasting-type situation. Thunderstorms may continue into the evening hours, but should dissipate by Midnight or potentially soon after.

The longwave trough will shift east on Wednesday, and we can expect some scattered cirrus to stream across much of the Panhandles except potentially the northwest. Temperatures will still be able to warm into the 90s across the area, with upper-90s in the northwest. A shortwave trough embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will clip the Panhandles and develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Panhandles later in the afternoon through the evening. Forecast soundings east of the surface trough show moderate instability, 1500-1800 J/kg of DCAPE, and 20-30 kts of effective shear. These factors, with a mean storm motion between 25-30 kts, suggests the damaging winds will be the most likely hazard. Similar to Tuesday, mid-level temperatures are somewhat warm with a relatively high PWATs. Thus, large hail will likely be less likely but not impossible. Again, thunderstorms will produce heavy rain which may lead to localized flooding concerns for those that see slow-moving thunderstorms.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Latest model guidance has backed off somewhat on the ridge to our east building westward on Thursday. We could see southwesterly flow aloft continue into Thursday. Mid-level forcing looks somewhat questionable, but won't be able to rule out a few isolated thunderstorms.

We could see the ridge start to build westward into the Panhandles from Friday and through the weekend. Won't be able to rule out isolated thunderstorms through the weekend given signal for weak vorticity advection and the possibility of reaching convective temperatures. Expect temperatures to warm into the upper-90s to 100s on a widespread scale for the holiday weekend.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will stay breezy overnight, and winds will strengthen slightly again during the day Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals toward the late afternoon hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing strong downdrafts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.