textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Thunderstorm chances for the northern CWA on Monday. Severe chances are low, but possible.

- Daily thunderstorm chances return Monday and persist through the end of the week.

- Increasing confidence in substantial rainfall for areas in the Panhandles this week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

H500 height rises aided by a weak frontal passage this morning are keeping atmospheric conditions stable and skies clear today. Clear skies and light winds will allow for heat to build today, reaching the upper 90's and even into the low 100's in some places in the SW CWA.

Winds shifting back to southerly on Sunday afternoon will allow for moisture to build back into the Panhandles overnight into Monday. Skies remain clear and winds remain light overnight as well, allowing heat to once again build throughout the Panhandles.

Perturbations developing along the ridge building in the southern plains on Monday will re-establish a weak lee-side low pressure center at the surface in central/eastern CO. Positive H700 theta-e advection into the northern CWA will promote an increase in moisture quality and depth into the evening hours. A surface trough SE of the weak surface low pressure center is responsible for lifting tomorrow, with deep mixing beforehand responsible for mixing out CIN. This will allow storms to develop in our northern CWA (likely in the western TX/central OK Panhandle), however, the best instability and shear are displaced N and NE of the Panhandles. So, it is questionable whether storms will be able to reach severe thresholds before exiting the FA to the N/NE.

Temperatures on Monday will likely be just as warm in the south and warmer in the northern CWA. Clear conditions and southerly flow will allow heat to continue to build. Increasing winds in the southern CWA will occur before the northern CWA, and may stifle high temperatures slightly in comparison to Sunday's high temperatures.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An active weather pattern for daily thunderstorm and persistent rainfall chances return this week. Ridging persists over the Panhandles until a weak upper-level trough propagates in from the west. Continued disturbances in this slowly propagating weak trough will provide continued support for precipitation throughout the week. Continued SE/S flow will build substantial moisture into the Panhandles to reinforce the pattern of continued rainfall.

Although the entire week has persistent PoPs, thunderstorm chances will vary day to day. This is much more of a summertime convective pattern, with weak upper-level support, which will promote pulsing thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as a possibility for any day this week. There are currently some model disagreements where the best axis of rainfall will end up. A re- circulation of mid-level dry air into the Panhandles, as well as how quickly the trough to our west propagates east in the coming week will likely determine where the axis of highest QPF ends up. Ensembles show average and median QPF's are close, indicating higher confidence in a substantial rainfall event throughout the week.

Temperatures throughout the week are expected to remain in the 80's, possibly only reaching maximums in the 70's on Wednesday. Next weekend, maximum temperatures will likely crack the 90's once again after persistent cloud cover begins to move out of the area.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period. Winds are beginning their shift from N back to S currently. They will remain relatively light for most of the TAF period, however, LLWS is expected at all three TAF sites (AMA, DHT, GUY) from 08Z to 12Z on Monday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.