textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Frontal passage tonight will bring breezy winds and a directional shift from SW to N.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Wednesday and extending through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

The cold front is making its way through the northern CWA, and pushing through about 30 minutes to an hour quicker than model guidance suggested. This front will bring a shift from WSW winds to N winds, with sustained speeds of 25-30 MPH and gusts up to 35-40 MPH. Although the front will bring with it breezy winds, relative humidities on the back side of the front will increase. Current observations show the jump from single digit RH's to 50-70%, with a delay of about 20 minutes between the wind shift and beneficial RH's arriving.

Tonight, the front will continue to push south through the Panhandles, and is expected to reach Amarillo around 11 PM to 12 AM. Winds will remain breezy behind the front until Tuesday late morning/afternoon, where an easterly wind shift and lacking upper- level support will allow wind speeds to decrease. High temperatures for Tuesday will fall slightly below seasonal averages, ranging from the high 60's in the NW CWA to high 70's in the southern CWA.

Cloud cover is expected to build into the Panhandles Tuesday night thanks to easterly flow bringing low-level moisture. The SE corner of our CWA could see some spotty rain showers Tuesday night from precipitation backbuilding along the cold front, however, as of now chances are quite low (around 10%) that it reaches that far. Although precipitation is expected Wednesday, the current uncertainty lies in cloud cover throughout the day. If upsloping flow is enough forcing, steep lapse rates to our west could allow for precipitation to make it into our CWA. However, widespread cloud cover could dampen instability in an already recovering environment, which is currently our failure point for Wednesday. While POPs currently reflect 50-60% chances CWA-wide, more certainty in timing and intensity will be gained as CAMs start to reach the event.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Further surface low developments beneath the upper-level SW flow bring the Panhandles persistent rain chances every afternoon/evening until Saturday. Shortwave troughs could intermittently provide upper- level support to upsloping flow and weak surface lows. Given this would provide This could provide just enough bulk-shear over decent instability (consistently around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) to provide the area with a low-end severe threat for any of those days in that period. Long-range model guidance is pointing toward a weak frontal passage on Saturday, that could knock down temperatures into next weekend as well.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Gusty winds will persist until 12Z for DHT and GUY, while sticking around a bit longer (until around 16Z) for AMA. After winds decrease into tomorrow morning, they will begin to transition from N to E until the end of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ001>020- 317.

OK...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ001>003.