textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue into the weekend with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms each evening.

- Increased threat of localized flash flooding will be present in the Northwestern Panhandles as activity continue to remain focused there.

- Drier and hotter conditions look to return next week with widespread triple-digit temperatures possible Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

With present agreement of models seeing the upper-level high pressure system more centered to our east today, the combined Panhandles continues to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. For today in particular, multiple CAMs have seen a weak short-wave try to clip the Northern Panhandles during the afternoon and evening hours. This wave will aid in making storm coverage bit more expansive for the Northwestern Panhandles with some CAMs evening giving it the potential to force some more southerly storms into the area later tonight. What has been a bit more back and forth, however, is the potential for the boundary yesterday to still be in play. Present runs of the HRRR have seen it sharpen enough to start isolated storms in the Central Panhandles ahead of the short-wave, but this has only been in a hand full of runs. Regardless, agreement is still strong that this short-wave will look to form a weak surface low that will get hung up across the Panhandles resulting in linger showers for the overnight hours. By Sunday afternoon and evening, this low does look to begin pushing off, but not before aiding in one more round of showers and thunderstorms.

In terms of impacts, current CAMs have continue to give the better severe potential to today. As it stands current runs are placing our best chances in the northwest with around 1500 to near 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Thanks in part to the short wave, these values are also working with some effective bulk wind shear averaging around 20 to 30 kt. While hot temperatures may favor more melting, this combination would make hail upwards of 1.5 inches not out of the question. However, the bigger threat will remain on DCAPE values upwards of 1500 to 1600 J/kg, which would result in the potential for damaging wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, especially the further south storms manage to start. On the hydro side of these impacts, present CAMs have suggest increased PWAT values with some areas having the potential to see values reach near the 1.5 inch mark. Should values like this be achieved then it is possible to see localized flash flooding, especially if values can carryover into Sunday when ground could be more flood prone. Otherwise, look for temperatures get a slight break with afternoon high starting to dip back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The start of next week has present model agreement seeing the current upper-level high retrograde back west during the course of the week. This retrograde will eventually see said high back over the Panhandles resulting in a return of the more widespread triple-digit temperatures. This will also see chances of precipitation start to decrease with chances Monday only around 10 to 30 percent and Tuesday now dropping below 10 percent. However, present GFS runs have continue to hint at the possibility of a new trough digging south into the area later in the week that could prove to provide us with cooler temperatures and better chances at precipitation. Present ensembles have also picked up on the idea with current NBM now giving us a 10 to 20 percent chance of seeing precipitation starting Wednesday. However, given that this trough has been very inconsistent between the different runs, confidence is not too high on the idea just yet.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

As of late tonight present radar and satellite has seen storms over perform from the CAMs runs. This has lead to higher confidence in vicinity thunderstorms remaining present over both KDHT and KGUY to at least 09 UTC. Beyond that timeframe conditions should start to quiet down, with only some low confidence concerns of a low-level cloud deck building over KGUY remaining. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to build back in past sunrise Saturday before our next round of storms move in from the west later that evening.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.