textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of the Panhandles for the rest of the day and into Thursday morning. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low at this time. Chances for flooding remain high across the southeastern TX Panhandle.

- Lows ranging in the upper-20s to mid-30s are expected Friday night for the combined Panhandle. Frost and freeze products are likely.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the CWA this afternoon and this activity will continue through tonight. Flooding is still expected across our southeast with additional precipitation exacerbating previously flooded areas. Some locations in Collingsworth county have already received over 5" of rain, with favorable chances for an additional 2" tonight through Thursday morning. Other locations in the combined Panhandles are not expected to receive as much rain, but persistent thunderstorms will allow for isolated areas to receive over 1" of rain tonight. Still, flash flooding is less likely for the majority of the Panhandles due to scattered storm coverage and fast moving storms. The severe threat today will be limited to areas ahead of the currently stalled cold front. Elevated thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail, but if storms can become surface based, damaging wind chances also increase. The tornado threat is much lower across our area toady compared to yesterday, despite the high 0-1 km bulk shear and helicity across the CWA. Tornado chances may increase slightly if supercell production can be achieved along the stationary front. Tonight, rain chances will shift east into central Oklahoma alongside the upper level low. Low clouds and fog will likely be left in the wake of this system before we clear out late Thursday morning.

Tomorrow, clouds will slowly clear out and wind speeds will increase sharply from the north. Highs may stay in the 60s with a few areas in the southern Texas Panhandle reaching the lower 70s. Strong winds behind the front will spread across the combined Panhandles with gusts up to 45 mph. Even 50 mph wind gusts are possible in our northwest zones, but chances are low to medium for now. Chances for 50 mph winds may increase with future forecast packages.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Our cooling trend continues in the extended as our cold front is reinforced with strong, northerly winds across the FA on Friday. In the morning, lows may already bottom out in the upper 30s across the north, while the rest of the Texas Panhandle stays in the 40s. By Friday afternoon, highs will only reach the 50s area wide.

Saturday morning, the NBM continues to trend cooler with some deterministic guidance already placing the whole CWA at or below freezing. Our current forecast suggests lows will drop to the upper 20s in our northern zones while the rest of the area ranges in the low to mid 30s. Freeze and frost products are being considered and will likely be needed.

For the rest of the long term period, temperatures should recover back into the 70s for the beginning of next week. Precipitation chances should remain largely absent, however, long range model signals are alluding to another strong low pressure system developing in the western CONUS and we may receive the moisture necessary for precipitation chances to return by next Wednesday.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

LIFR and IFR conditions continue at all sites this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected now through this evening for all terminals. Ceilings are not forecast to rise above 1,000 ft until Thursday morning. Fog will be possible again tonight, but more likely for KGUY and KAMA. Tomorrow late morning, once skies clear out, surface winds will become breezy and eventually wind tomorrow afternoon.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ010-014-015-019-020.

OK...None.