textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

-Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles.

-Severe thunderstorm chances return for Friday afternoon and evening, for the majority of the Panhandles.

-Thunderstorm chances continue through weekend before drying out next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Latest 18Z satellite and surface obs shows a very subtle H500 wave just ahead of the main cold front, which is generating some showers for the northeastern Panhandles. Further west, a more notable mid level disturbance moving east within the anti-cyclonic flow regime is generating thunderstorms off the high terrain in New Mexico. The northern Panhandles, based off the current trajectory of the thunderstorm development, and the close proximity to main cold front in Kansas, will have the highest probabilities (30-45%) of seeing any rainfall through this evening. Overall effective shear and better vorticity advection downstream of good (+) H700-500 theta-e axis should also keep the higher chances of severe thunderstorms north of the Panhandles. However, any residual convection from the high terrain that make the trip into the Panhandles later today will move into 1200-1400 J/Kg of DCAPE (support by 18Z AMA RAOB data), which could result in some severe level wind gusts to watch closely. Residual showers and low topped storms should dissipate going through the overnight hours tonight.

For Friday, the main H500 high will shift more northwest towards the Four Corners region and compress in size. This will introduce good H500 NW steering flow and result in good shear vorticity advection into the Panhandles Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This should result in more organized and robust convection quickly entering the Panhandles from more established NW flow. Early on, more established updrafts in stronger storms where some effective shear is present, we could see large hail perhaps slightly bigger than quarters. What is more higher probs of the main hazard being is damaging winds gusts over 70 mph at times with the DCAPE values over 1500 J/kg. Limited shear the further southeast from the TX/NM stateline should result in not having longevity in sfc based storm tracks before an outflow/cold pool propagates ahead of the main activity. But nonetheless, most of the combined Panhandles will have some chance of a severe thunderstorm. High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 90s in the NW Panhandles to 100-102 in the far southern TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

H500 northerly to eventually northeasterly flow will continue through the weekend with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms along the periphery of the H500 high. Strong wind gusts are possible with more robust storms. By next week, the main high will set up in the central Plains. This should bring large scale UL subsidence to the Panhandles as seen by the latest global model data. With the high centered further north, should keep overall temperatures near average for mid July, with no triple digit heat expected at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of KGUY and KDHT for at least the first few hours of the 00z period. Amendments may be needed for any cells that directly impact the terminals. Downburst wind gusts greater than 40 kts could occur with any thunderstorm this evening. Winds will shift out of the north this evening- overnight behind a boundary, becoming more erratic through the morning hours. Winds will gradually settle out of the east- southeast at 10-20kts towards the end of the period.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.