textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- There will be a low chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, favoring the western combined Panhandles. Severe storms are not anticipated, but cannot rule out a rogue gusts exceeding 58 mph.

- Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the next shot at widespread rainfall across the region.

- After Tuesday daily thunderstorm chances continue through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Upper level ridging is expected to build over the combined Panhandles over the next couple of days. This ridge will bring afternoon highs back into the mid to upper 80s both today and Monday. Right now looking at a 20 to maybe 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms over the area for this afternoon. However, despite a decent amount of H7 theta-e advection, upper level support is expected to be lacking. Convective initiation will depend solely on reaching convective temperatures with any activity waning towards sunset. Also, lack of shear will allow any storms to collapse on themselves and not be very long lived and pose a threat for strong wind gusts. Monday, is expected to be a repeat of isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms favoring the western combined Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Tuesday, an upper level shortwave trough will move into the Desert Southwest and bring some lift along the leading edge into the combined Panhandles. It will also bring in some Pacific moisture under southwest flow aloft allowing for PoPs upwards of 80 percent Tue into Tue night. Because of the extra cloud cover, first moving into the western Panhandles, afternoon highs on Tue are expected to be held back in the 70s to the west and lower to mid 80s in the eastern combined Panhandles. At this time too, a fairly stout low pressure system will be deepening over the PacNW. This low should eventually move down over CA/NV and keep ripples in the flow aloft going through the rest of the week. Each day beyond Tue is looking to have at least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms through the extended.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Scattered to few cloud decks from last night's thunderstorm activity still remain this morning. However, conditions at all three terminals are holding at VFR with skies looking to become clear by the late morning. Chances of isolated thunderstorms do have the potential to return during the late afternoon and early evening for the Western Panhandles. However, the present trend with the CAMs has seen these chances rapidly decrease with each run with confidence in any impact to the terminals becoming very low. Given this, have decided to leave mention of showers and thunderstorms out of the current packages.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.