textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Low chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight for portions of the northern and western Panhandles.

- The return of triple digit heat with 105 degree potential starting Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Tonight, recent 00Z CAMs suggest the MCS in Colorado should hold together and move through eastern portions of the combined Panhandles. There is still the question of the thunderstorms' integrity, as some models have a drier solution given the convective inhibition in the area. Still, tonight's environment is primed to receive thunderstorms in our northeastern zones, as long as the MCS in progress is able to tap into our elevated instability. MLCAPE is still forecast to be over 1,500 J/kg even past 4 AM tonight. While effective wind shear remains lack luster, some models like the 00Z RAP suggest shear will increase within the near storm environment. Western coverage of this complex is still forecast to remain somewhat low; however we cannot rule out a storm or two in the southwest Texas Panhandle. This solution will only occur with outflow assistance from the weakening storms moving east out of New Mexico.

This morning, thunderstorms will disperse as they move into western Oklahoma. Light westerly winds, high surface moisture, and sub 594 decameter heights will allow high temperatures to remain in the upper 80s and 90s across the CWA. Later Thursday night, another wave of thunderstorms are expected to move eastward off the high terrain. Coverage is still forecast to be low except in the far west, and the environment should support nothing more than general thunderstorms. Given how much lower temperatures will be today compared to previous triple digit days, even DCAPE values will struggle to get above 1,000 J/kg.

Tomorrow, the upper level high will start it's next eastward shift. Heights will rise and we will begin to experience above average temperatures through the region once again. Friday afternoon, highs may still stay bound to the 90s but a few locations may manage to sneak there way into the lower 100s. Thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon is anticipated to be much lower than previous days, but a storm or two cannot be ruled out in the far west as storms attempt to move out of New Mexico.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

As the main H500 high pressure shifts and centers more over the southern HIgh Plains and then eventually the lower Mississippi River Valley by next week, mostly dry conditions expected as seen from the latest global model guidance. Perhaps a chance for shower and storms, favoring western and northern Panhandles, otherwise hot and dry conditions expected. Triple digit temperatures expected to return Friday through the remainder of the long term forecast period. Once again, unfortunately.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The potential for thunderstorms at all terminals tonight twill be the primary focus for the next 24 hours. There is currently very low confidence regarding when (or if) thunderstorms will impact terminals at this time, which necessitates PROB30s at this time. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong downdraft winds.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.