textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 458 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Increasing potential for more of the combined Panhandles to see showers and thunderstorms with some severe on Thursday. However, there are some factors that could greatly limit this threat.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions can return on Friday for much of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Thunderstorms are still forecast for tonight, mainly across the northeastern combined Panhandles. Storms are still expected to develop starting in the 11 PM to 1 AM timeframe and may linger to sunrise on Wednesday morning. The latest CAMs have been continuously hinting at a thin line of storms developing overnight, from roughly the central TX Panhandle (around Amarillo to Borger) and up to the northeastern Panhandles. Forecast soundings indicate a decent amount of elevated CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) which could lead to a large hail threat. Current expectation is that hail could be as large as quarters, but if the more aggressive guidance pans out, hail up to ping pong ball cannot be ruled out. Storms should be east of the forecast area by sunrise on Wednesday.

The upper level system that supplied the thunderstorm chances tonight will continue to slowly move east across Kansas/Nebraska on Wednesday. With the CWA being on the southwest side of this low pressure system, dry conditions are anticipated on Wednesday after the showers and storms exit off to the east during the morning. Cooler temperatures in the 60s are expected due to low clouds remaining across the area through mid day as well as us being behind a cold front.

For Thursday, a storm system is forecast to dig south from the Pacific Northwest towards the Intermountain West during the day. With southerly to southwesterly flow in the low levels, this will allow Gulf of America moisture to increase across the southern High Plains on Thursday. As dry air moves in across the west, the first typical dry line severe thunderstorms set-up is looking like it may pan out during the afternoon into the evening hours. Forecast guidance continues to paint a good swath of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE over the central to eastern Panhandles. This instability looks to be collocated with sufficient shear, including in the low levels. These ingredients are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon into the evening. The primary hazards would be large hail (especially with it being March and the mid levels are quite cold) and damaging winds, however, a low threat for a tornado may also arise given the decent shear in the lowest layers. This severe thunderstorm risk is highly contingent on surface heating occurring though, which is not certain to occur on Thursday. To start the day, low clouds will be in place across the region. Just how quickly the low clouds erode and clear out varies tremendously in the model guidance. The longer the clouds stick around, the less heating we can get to break the low level inversion. No surprise, but the notoriously dry biased GFS does erode clouds very quickly, but the moisture rich NAM keeps low clouds across the area all day. The CAMs that do lead to thunderstorm development, do not develop any storms before 5-6 PM, which seems like a reasonable scenario as there will need to be some heating to allow the cap to break. To sum up everything, the potential is there for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, but will depend heavily on just how quickly the low clouds clear out throughout the day. If storms do form, the severe storm threat should end by early Friday morning as storms move off to the east.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

An H500 low pressure system should be located across Colorado to start the day on Friday. A stacked jet max will be located on the southeastern portion of the trough over eastern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. This feature will move across the Panhandles on Friday, which will aid in leading to strong winds during the day. As the low pressure system moves east to northeast on Friday, this will create a dry slot across the region leading to much drier conditions. Mid level capping will limit the highest wind gust potential on Friday, but low level winds will be strong in the morning to early afternoon time frame which appears to be the best window for the strongest wind gusts during the day. A few wind gusts getting close to 50-60 mph from late morning to early afternoon certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across the northwestern Panhandles. Widespread wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range should be anticipated given the winds at the top of the boundary layer during the day. Even though some rainfall is expected tonight and Thursday, it would likely take quite a bit (at least a half inch if not three- quarters of an inch) to alleviate some of the fire weather concerns for Friday. In either case, critical fire weather conditions are expected across at least the central and west due to the dry and windy conditions.

As the low pressure system moves north of the Panhandles on Friday night, a cold front will propel southward across the Plains and should be south of the area by Saturday morning. This will lead to cooler highs on Saturday, with current forecast temperatures topping out in the 60s. Latest model guidance indicates that a cutoff low pressure system may remain near Baja California through the remainder of the weekend, this leads to southwest to west flow over the southern High Plains. Strong WAA returns as early as Sunday into Monday, with highs increasing quickly back into the 70s and widespread 80s on Monday. The previously mentioned cutoff low may start to move east on Monday and PVA ahead of the system may combine with moisture to lead to rain chances across portions of the area on Monday night. Models struggle with these cutoff lows with how quickly they move out and the exact track, so confidence in any rain remains low at this time.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Low cloud ceilings are impacting KAMA this morning, but are beginning to clear from KGUY. Clouds should clear out from all sites through the morning hours. Winds will become light and variable this afternoon before settling out of the south- southeast towards the end of the period at 5-15 kts.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.