textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today through Friday due to breezy/gusty winds combined with dry conditions. Gusts 30 to 40 mph with RH values in the teens.

- An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out in the far east to southeastern TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon into evening.

- A potentially strong cold front late Friday is expected to follow another critical fire weather day Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Southwest flow aloft over the FA can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery at this time. Upstream is a mid to upper level trough axis running from central CA up into western MT. Until this trough reaches the combined Panhandles on Wed, southwest flow will continued to bring some high level moisture from the Pacific while upper level winds induce leeside lows over eastern CO and western KS. The surface lows are expected to bring breezy sustained southwest winds and drier air to the surface with lower Tds in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This means critical fire weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow, as afternoon temperatures reach into the 80s and drop RH values into the teens. Today, winds are not expected to gusts higher than maybe 40 to 45 mph. However, tomorrow as H7 winds increase with the approaching trough, the probability for a gust of 50 mph increase to around 10 percent in the far northwest. Mainly from Texline to Boise City.

With the mid to upper moisture seen in the water vapor imagery, it is reasonable to agree with current CAMS that try to produce some very light returns both today and tomorrow. For today, mainly expecting some potential virga showers over the central to western Texas Panhandle. Tomorrow, a potential dryline in the eastern combined Panhandles, mainly the TX Panhandle, is expected bring a slight chance for thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty to the position of the dryline and whether it will retreat back into the TX Panhandle after exiting. If a storm does pop and mature would not rule out a severe threat for large hail and damaging winds. A potential for a tor will increase further east and south of the TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A mid to upper level trough over CA is expected to arrive in the Panhandles come Wed. This means lower afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to the northwest, with limited mid 80s in the SE TX Panhandle are expected for Wed afternoon. A surface low just to the north will eject off to the northeast towards western IA Wed afternoon. This is expected to allow the pressure gradient to relax with Wed seeing the calmest winds this week. Elevated fire weather conditions are still expected as westerly downsloping surface winds bring Tds down into the 20s. While surface winds are only expected to be topping out around 15 mph, RH values are expected to drop to around 8-10%.

Upper level ridging is expected to return for Thu and Fri, with Fri being under the leading edge of the next upper level trough. Afternoon highs are expected to reach back into the 80s with continued dry air at the surface with minimum RH values dropping out in the 5-10% range. Critical fire weather conditions return as the surface pressure gradient steepens once again causing 20+ kt sustained winds out of the southwest.

As the next upper level trough swings into the Rockies and approaches the Great Plains Friday, upper level winds are expected to increase. In turn, winds are expected to be a bit higher on Friday than Thu. Right now the NBM introduces a 10-15% probability of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in the northwestern Panhandles Friday afternoon. Any potential wildfires that may be occurring Friday afternoon will also, be under the threat of a potentially potent cold front that will bring in windy north winds and changed fire progression to the south. Also, there may be a dryline impacting the far eastern Panhandles with a slight chance for severe storms ahead of the cold front.

With this expected cold front, a nice break with the 80s degrees should occur over the weekend with NBM highs being in the 60s for Saturday and 70s for Sunday. However, really low Tds in the single digits are expected. Therefore, RH values are still expected to tank into the teens with at a minimum elevated fire weather conditions being present.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will then dissipate to 10-20 kts sustained past 06z. Winds will then pick up past 14-15Z to 20-30 kts sustained with gusts near 40 kts at times, especially at KDHT. Skies will remain mostly clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Continuous dry conditions especially in the central to western combined Panhandles will combined with RH values in the teens tomorrow, single digits Wed onward. Twenty-foot winds are expected to be at the very least 20 to 25 mph for Tuesday with gusts around 35 to 45 mph. As a result an RFTI's of 4 to 6 are expected for much of the combined Panhandles. The exception being the far eastern Panhandles that may be on the moist side of a dryline where a slight chance of thunderstorms exist.

Winds are expected to fall off Wed to around 15 mph (20ft). However, RH values are expected to drop to as low as 8 percent as Tds drop off under westerly, downsloping winds. Afternoon temperatures may be cooler in the 70s but due to the Tds dropping off the RH is expected to be lower than today and tomorrow. Therefore, expecting at a minimum, elevated fire weather conditions.

Thursday, winds pick back up again to near 20 mph with RH in the single digits. This will lead to an RFTI around 4 to 7. With the higher end of these values being located in the northwestern combined Panhandles.

Friday, an approaching upper level system is expected to bring even higher winds for Friday. With a 5 to 10 percent chance for gusts up to 50 mph. The fire weather conditions Friday, west of a dryline feature, will prelude a potentially potent cold front that will bring a wind shift to the north with breezy and gusty winds Friday night. Areas in the western combined Panhandles are looking to have RFTI values in the 6 to 8 range.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003.