textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- High temperatures will be hot with widespread highs in the 90s with a few locations at or above 100 degrees. This can reach record daily highs at times.

- 10-20% chance for high based thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday in the Panhandles which have the potential for damaging wind gusts from dry microbursts and large hail.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A high pressure system continues to move across the southern plains for both today and Wednesday. For today the high pressure is directly across the southern plains while on Wednesday it will be leaving the region. For today this high pressure system will bring calm and sunny weather across the panhandles. The ample sun coupled with subsidence heating of the high pressure system will spike our high temperatures into the 90s to low 100s. This will put our highs close to our even at record high values for several stations. Such heat will pose a risk for heat illness for those who are sensitive to heat or those who lack sufficient hydration or cooling. Once the high shifts eastward on Wednesday it will shear off some mid level moisture, around the 600mb level, and move this into the southern panhandles. The overall environment will have limited instability up to 500 J/kg which can be utilized once the convective temperatures is reached during the later afternoon. This will allow for a low chance for high based rain showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon to evening of Wednesday. These will form over a deep sub cloud base dry layer which means most if not all the precipitation they will produce will evaporate before it reaches the surface. So the rain showers and thunderstorms will produce far more wind than any rainfall for the panhandles. This would support DCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg across much of the panhandles. This will allow for winds to be very strong to damaging with 70 mph downburst being most likely, although 85+ mph downburst cannot be ruled out. Wednesday is just looking like a classic environmental setup for powerful dry microbursts. If the storms get strong enough then even large hail can form as well. As for the temperatures Wednesday will most likely be slightly cooler owning to the high moving to the east and there being an increase in cloud cover. That would put the highs mainly in the 90s with only the hottest spots having the potential for 100.

Spotty elevated fire weather conditions can be expected for both today and Wednesday just based on how dry it will be for both days.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Thursday the high pressure departs off to the east with a weather system moving across southern plains from the mountainous west. This will most likely bring additional 600 mb level moisture across the panhandles with an increase in instability to 750 J/kg. This will allow for a more extensive field and more numerous high based rain showers and thunderstorms to form across the panhandles. These will most likely start once the convective temperature is reached during the afternoon and last through to the evening. Since these are high based over a deep dry sub cloud base layer little to no rainfall will reach the surface. Instead these will most likely produce powerful downburst winds as the environment is that of a classic dry microburst setup. Once again DCAPE will be 1500 to 2000 J/Kg which will support 70mph downburst on average and even allow for 85+ mph downbursts. If the storms get strong enough then even large hail can form. The passage of the weather system will bring breezy southwest across the panhandles. This will drive in dry and hotter surface air across the panhandles leading to a fairly high chance increased temperatures. The high will most likely climb back into the higher 90s to lower 100s across the panhandles. The dry and breezy conditions will most likely lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles. The western panhandles will be more likely to see the critical conditions due to it being drier, while the eastern panhandles see more elevated due to slightly higher moisture.

Friday the weather system has a high chance of departing with much of the moisture leading to calmer, but still hot, weather conditions.

The weekend looks to have a dry line setup with the passage of a large weather system. For Saturday the dryline will most likely be to the east of the panhandles leaving the whole of the panhandles within the dry sector. This would lead to mainly calm weather but does introduce the chance for elevated to even critical fire weather conditions. Sunday is more likely the spicier day as the weather system fully impacts the Great Plains. This has the potential of pushing the dryline further to the west into the eastern panhandles. If this occurs then it opens up the panhandles to see strong to even severe thunderstorms during the afternoon to evening. To the west of the dry line in the dry sector it will most likely be windy and dry leading to further elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

Then going into next work week there is still increasing confidence that the weather pattern shifts to be more active. This increases the chances that further weather system will pass into the Great Plains. This in turn increases the chances that the panhandles will see either rain from rain showers and thunderstorms from the moisture of the weather systems. Or, it means that the panhandles will see further elevated to critical fire weather conditions if we are in the dry sector of these weather systems.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. There will be breezy southwest winds at all terminals ahead of a surface boundary for early this afternoon. Once this boundary passes winds shift to the northeast for KDHT and KGUY for the rest of the afternoon through evening. Winds become southeasterly and breezy at all terminals for later Wednesday morning. Wednesday there is a very low chance for high based rain showers to thunderstorms with the potential to impact KAMA. However, the chances are too low to be reflected within the KAMA TAF at this time. In any case these showers and thunderstorms will produce more winds than any rainfall.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001-002.