textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected to continue into next week with the Panhandles expecting multiple days of near or above triple digit temperatures.

- The accumulating effect of multiple triple digit temperature days combined with little to no overnight relief can result in increased chances for heat related illnesses and impacts.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms exist Thursday through Saturday with concerns focused on strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Heat advisory remains in effect for Palo Duro Canyon (although again it is not acting its normal self due to rainfall last weekend) as well as areas from Dumas to Borger through early evening. Tight PGRAD between lee-side SFC cyclogenesis and SFC high over the NRN MS River Valley will lead to increasing SRLY flow and will induce a 30-40 kt low level jet overnight. This will hold low temps up significantly overnight which is partly why the NWS HeatRisk product is at such high levels. This together with H5 high center just south of the area will lead to highs about 2 to 5 degrees warmer on Thursday mainly across central and WRN counties. A boundary in the east will again temper highs slightly there. Have hoisted a Heat Advisory for most of the area on Thursday based on areas that we feel have the highest probability of seeing 105 degrees temperatures, or in case of the southeast, 105 degree apparent temperature. This meant excluding Cimarron, Deaf Smith, Beaver, Lipscomb and Hemphill Counties from the advisory for now. Some of the locations may be fall just short of the advisory criteria, but given the HeatRisk pinging major, went forward with the advisory.

We still may see a couple brief showers or storms mainly along the stationary boundary across the ERN Panhandles this aftn and evening again again tomorrow but POPs are less than 10 percent today and around 10 percent in the east on Thursday. A ridge riding s/wv is forecast to produce some showers and storms as it moves out of SE CO Thu evening. The SRN extend of these will impact the NW Panhandles. There is some wind shear, but CAPE is very limited. Hot temps and high DCAPE so suggest a wind threat with this activity and SPC has included the OK Panhandle in a marginal SVR risk area for wind.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Outflow from the Thu night activity is forecast to stall across the CEN or SRN Panhandles on Friday. Tons of high H7 Theta-e associated with the monsoon plume are forecast to combine with increased low level moisture from the Gulf to provide anomalously high moisture and model soundings show SBCAPE improving to 1500-2000 j/kg despite ridiculously warm H5 temps near -2 deg C. In addition, there is actually still some wind shear to work with as NAM and GFS both indicate bulk effective shear of 20 to 40 along the boundary mainly due to directional shear. One wonders if we will see any supercell structure similar to July 4th event, but CAPE is not as high as that even and mid level temps are much warmer. If we do, right mover motion is WSW similar to July 4th. Again, SVR convective parameters suggest mainly a wind threat with these and suspect SPC will end up including a marginal for Friday eventually. High moisture suggests a heavy rainfall threat as potential for very high rates may exist and if everything comes together localized areas could see 2 inches in less than an hour. Onion soundings in the evening suggest a threat for heat bursts as well. Main caveats for Friday will be exact boundary location and timing of the ridge riding S/WV. Heat advisory conditions seem unlikely given this set-up unless the boundary stalls further north. Some models develop convection very early across the area which would likely keep much of the area well below 100 even. Gut feeling is the storms will be forming by early afternoon. NBM trended cooler and left it as is for now, but it could still be too hot near the boundary location.

As the ridge builds just north of the area on Saturday once again, the southern Panhandles remain below a weakness that will be drifting west under the ridge. There is enough lingering moisture appears to suggests at least isolated storms mainly across the southern TX Panhandle. This would likely preclude temps much above 100 once again. The high center will build more over the area again Sunday and into early next week and as it does, temperatures will soar above 100 once again as moisture decreases. Monday currently has the highest probabilities for seeing temperatures greater than 104 at anywhere from 20 percent in the far west to 70+ percent in the PDC and Canadian River Valley from Miami to Boys Ranch.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will stay around 10-15 kts tonight, strengthening to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Drought cured grasses with ERCs approaching 80th percentile, low RH near 15 percent and SSW winds near 20 mph will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the central and western zones on Thursday. RFTIs are 1-2 but are very close to thresholds and could easily jump to 3-4s. Any lightning in the NW on Thursday will also cause concerns for starts. We likely will issue a Fire Danger Statement for Thursday given these factors before tomorrow.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ001>004- 006>009-011>015-017>020-317.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ007-008-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ002.