textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the New Mexico state line this evening. Storm may be strong with small hail and gusty winds.

- Rain chances continue through the forecast period with Tue and Tue night having the best chances and Thursday having the lowest chances. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Latest satellite shows a weak cu field setting up in the western Panhandle as a negative tilt trough set up over southern NV continues to draw up moisture to the western Panhandles. Better moisture and forcing is over eastern New Mexico. Some storms are already popping in that area, and that may expand to the western Panhandles this evening, but should diminish off right around the Amarillo area. Should a storm or two manage to develop in the east the storm motion would be out of the south around 10 to 15 mph with decent PWAT's around an inch, and therefore moderate to heavy rain is favored. But overall the best chances are right along the TX/NM border.

Overnight as a large scale low moves down over the Pacific Northwest it will nudge that moisture a bit further east, along with better forcing which supports increased chances for showers and storms all day Tuesday across the Panhandles. Storms should just be general, while ML CAPE values range from 500 to 1000 J/kg, overall soundings show a very tall and skinny CAPE profile with PWAT's in the 1.25" range. Will not rule out a strong storm with hail up to penny size, but overall do expect that decent melting should occur keeping the hail in check. Same with winds, while do not anticipate severe wind gusts, will not rule out winds up to 50-55 mph as a possibility.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Wednesday the upper low over the Pacific Northwest will drop further down the California coast and continue to spin up another wave of moisture across the Panhandles. This will again set off another round of scattered storms. It does seem that the central to eastern Panhandles will be better favored for showers and storms, but still about a 40 to 60 percent chance of storms in the central and east. Thursday the main upper low over CA will be absorbed into an upper disturbance coming in off the Gulf of Alaska. That will set up a bit of a break for our area as we transition to weak ridging. However, there will still be some lingering storms from the previous day on Thursday. Friday through Sunday the precipitation chances will be on the rise again as the ridge gets pinched off by an upper trough over the northeast and a somewhat cutoff low that tracks over the Panhandles and lingers. This will just continue the daily changes of general showers and storms. It certainly looks like a favorable patter to continue to help with the drought.

Weber

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are currently expected through the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible early this evening for Dalhart, later tonight for Amarillo, and Tuesday afternoon for all terminals. Have included PROB30 for all of these instances of potential thunderstorms due to a lack of confidence in them occurring (this evening and tonight), and precise timing (this evening, tonight, and Tuesday afternoon). Visibility reductions due to moderate to heavy rain will be possible at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.