textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Record heat is expected Wednesday and especially Thursday.

- Critical fire weather is expected Thursday due to warm, dry, and gusty conditions.

- Cooler temperatures return and gusty winds will continue late this week behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

There isn't much going on in our weather for the short term aside from record breaking heat. Data trends continue to support the potential to for record highs to be tied or broken today at our climate sites, topping out in the 80s to near 90. A relaxed pressure gradient over the region is keeping winds on the lighter side, only about 10-20 mph out of the south. By tomorrow, models show the stout upper level area of high pressure meandering over the Trans Pecos/High Plains regions of west Texas, which will further reinforce heat for the Panhandles. Highs in the 90s are forecast across the CWA, with records expected to easily be shattered at all official climate sites (Amarillo, Borger, Dalhart). Tomorrow's winds will be comparable to today's (south at 10-15 mph with slightly higher gusts), but relative humidity values will be even lower, which would create elevated fire weather conditions across the combined Panhandles.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

On Thursday, pressure aloft will be rising and so will our temperatures. It will easily be the hottest day of the week, and will also feature critical fire weather which will be discussed further in the fire weather section. On the northern periphery of the upper ridge, zonal flow will spur lee cyclogenesis, placing a relatively tighter pressure gradient over the region. Breezy, downsloping southwest winds of 15-25 mph will usher in very dry air, which will help our afternoon warming. Daytime heating will be further aided by compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front, with highs soaring into the upper 90s and low 100s. Palo Duro Canyon will have a high probability to reach 105, which will more than likely necessitate a heat advisory. Even if the front arrives on the quicker end of current projections, highs in the 90s are still favored in the northern Panhandles. Winds will shift to northerly behind the front Thursday evening, increasing overnight into Friday at 20-30 mph. Stronger winds above the surface should mix down as we tend to see behind fronts, spelling 40-70% chances for >40 mph gusts (especially across the eastern Panhandles). A welcomed cooling trend will take place Fri-Sat with near/below average highs in the 60s & 70s returning to the region, but we could still see elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

Model guidance continues suggesting a pattern change should arrive to end March and begin April, but there is still the ever present chance that most of the Panhandles remain warm, windy, and dry. At the very least, deeper troughing is progged to encroach upon the Pacific coast next week, gradually pushing high pressure away from our region. This could allow some upper level disturbances to bring improved moisture back to the Panhandles, potentially enough to provide rain/storm chances. As per usual, track and timing of any systems will be key, along with placement of higher moisture content (widespread moisture or more localized to certain portions of the Panhandles). There have been some runs of the GFS that place quite a pronounced dry slot across the area next week, which would promote more fire weather concerns. Regardless, the projected synoptic pattern supports the persistence of warm spring temperatures.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR sky conditions are foreseen at all TAF sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south at 10-20 kts through this evening, decreasing overnight into Wednesday morning to 10 kts or less.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Thursday due to record heat, extremely dry air, and breezy winds. These winds will be out of the southwest most of the day at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph mainly across the eastern TX Panhandle. Minimum RH values down to 5% would support RFTI values of 2-5 across the whole CWA. The main concern for fire spread will arrive with a cold front later Thu afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. This front will shift winds out of the north at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible, especially for the central and eastern Panhandles. The threat for new fires will decrease behind the front as RH values increase, but again, any existing fires could spread rapidly with the expected wind shift.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003.