textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday, mainly in the southwest TX Panhandle.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across the combined Panhandles. Wind headlines may be needed, especially across the western combined Panhandles. Patchy to widespread blowing dust may become a road hazard.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Based on current GOES-16 water vapor imagery, there is a broad mid to upper level low pressure system spanning from the PacNW to the Great Lakes Region along the US/Canada border. The combined Panhandles are at the very southern fringe of this trough with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This pattern should continue through Sat. Sunday, troughing will dig into the northwest CONUS causing southwest flow aloft with increasing H5 winds for Sunday afternoon.

Until then, relatively light winds are expected today and tomorrow with continued warm temperatures in the 80s and RH values falling to near 10 percent in the afternoons. Today, Tds have started out in the 20s thanks to a weak cold front that came through last night. This will change in the afternoon with Tds in the teens expected to move in from the west. Overnight, an oscillating dryline is expected to backup into the Panhandles allowing for RH values to recover to the 50-60% range in the west to near 90-100% in the central to eastern half of the combined Panhandles overnight. As this dryline backs up into the western combined Panhandles, some CAMs show very light reflectivity over the NW Panhandles overnight tonight. Forecast soundings suggest mid level cloud cover and maybe just enough elevated CAPE to cause a few virga showers.

For Saturday, expecting a corridor of slightly breezy winds over the southwestern TX Panhandle that may potentially lift a small area the Panhandle into critical fire weather conditions. To the north and northeast winds should fall off, and even potentially turn northeasterly behind a frontal boundary towards the evening. The NBM has given some 20 to 30 PoPs for parts of the northeast (Beaver & Lipscomb Counties). However, even with the frontal boundary bringing some surface moisture back into the area, CAMs are not excited about any real showers or thunderstorms being forced.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Mid to upper level winds are expected to shift to the southwest late Saturday. Increasing winds aloft will create a leeside low over eastern NM into the combined Panhandles. Gradient driven surface winds are expected to increase to the 30 to 40 mph range in the western Panhandles with 20 to 30 mph in the eastern combined Panhandles. During the afternoon the far eastern Panhandles may stay with higher Tds with a diffuse dryline giving the eastern stack of counties some slightly higher RH values and more southeasterly winds as opposed to southwest. Critical fire weather conditions are expected in the central to western Panhandles with maybe elevated in the east depending on where this pseudo dryline sets up. Analyzing the winds aloft, the FA is progged to be under the exit region of the H5 jet upwards of 60 to 70 kts. At H7 winds are looking to approach the 40 to 50 kt range later in the afternoon on Sunday, mainly in the NW TX Panhandle. Although the gusts should mainly be topping out around 50-55 mph some 60 mph cannot be ruled out at this time. Even Amarillo has close to a 15 percent chance for a 60 mph gust, while Dalhart holds a 50-55 percent chance based on NBM probs.

Because of the location of the dryline, the northeastern Panhandles do have a Slight Chance outlook for severe. However, confidence is very low for any thunderstorms to actually materialize Sunday afternoon/evening at this time.

Monday, elevated to critical fire weather returns to the southern TX Panhandle. Then, on Tuesday the area for fire weather concerns will shift to the western combined Panhandles. There are increasing signals for rain prospects going into Wed and Thu. The NBM is giving upwards of 60 PoPs for Thu morning. What comes of this will depend on the actual track of the upper level system that models want to bring across the Desert Southwest going into mid next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail with light and varying winds through the period. Generally 10 kts or less are expected for winds speeds through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Low end critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow for the southwestern TX Panhandle where winds may approach the 15 to 20 mph range. Combined with RH values dipping into the single digits. Elsewhere RH driven elevated conditions are expected.

Sunday is the main day to watch where a wind advisory if not a high wind warning will be needed in the western third to half of the combined Panhandles. RH values are expected to drop to near 10 percent. These conditions are expected to combine and bring a total RFTI of 6 to 7 in the central to western Panhandles. The eastern Panhandles may still see RFTIs as high as 4 to 5 depending on where a pseudo dryline may exist.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.