textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Windy conditions are expected behind a cold front tonight into Wednesday. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 4 AM to 4 PM for +50 mph winds in the Texas Panhandle.

- A return of warmer and drier conditions are expected to keep elevated to critical fire clear present into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As of this late Tuesday night, latest radar and observation sites where tracking the expected cold front entering the southern portions of Colorado and Kansas. While this front continues to trend with a decent cool off for the Panhandles Wednesday, the primary concern has been more focused on the winds. Presently latest CAMs continue to see heavy support from 850mb jet that is following behind the front with winds in this jet peaking at around 50 to 60kt. This will correlated to strong winds down at the surface directly behind the front with northerly winds reaching speeds of 25 to 35 mph and gust upwards of 55 mph. These winds are expected to hold through the late morning and afternoon thanks in part to a 700mb filling in for support. What has been really concerning however, is that recent runs of the HRRR have been seeing efficient bleed down of this jet which could result in rouge gusts reaching 60 mph, especially as the front passes overnight. At this time, these gusts look to be very brief with only the far Southeastern Texas Panhandles retaining any chances of seeing them beyond the initial frontal passage. Given this, it has been decided to keep the Panhandles under a Wind Advisory until 4 pm. Otherwise, potential is present to see pockets of blowing dust through out the day.

As for fire weather concerns for the day, expected winds do give potential for concerns to be had, but timing between our lowest RH values and these winds are a bit skewed, with winds looking to weaken during the afternoon. Added to this, will be temperature only reaching into 50 to 60s for the day, which could be more beneficial in quelling fire starts. Given this combination, only elevated to very brief low-end critical fire weather is expected at this time. These concern do escalate for Thursday as much warmer and drier conditions see the potential for critical fire weather that afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Model agreement continues see a ridge build in over the Western Untied States for the remainder of the work week, which will likely leave the Panhandles under another round dry and warmer conditions. This warming period will eventually see us rebounding from the expected cold front Wednesday, with afternoon highs expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s as early as Friday. Of course, these warm and dry conditions are likely to come with fire weather concerns with present guidance already seeing potential for teen to single digit RH values on Friday and Saturday. These concerns only grow for Sunday as models see a upper-level trough brush just to our north and force a front and some breezier conditions to move across the Panhandle for the day. Otherwise, this trend look to continue into next week with models see a strong upper-level high push into the Western United States.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As of late tonight, present observations have seen the expected cold front moving across the southern portions of Colorado and Kansas with present expectations to be at KGUY around 1 to 2 AM. This front is expected to makes it way south into the Panhandles through the overnight and bring with it very gusty northerly winds. These wind gust can easily reach speeds upwards of 55 mph and cause brief pockets of blows dust at the terminals. However, given the limited dust sources in our north, impacts are currently expected to be light with all terminals likely to remain VFR for the package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ001>003.