textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Hot temperatures into the 90s by Tuesday with maybe some areas like PDC reaching 100, these hot temperatures potentially last through midweek.

- Breezy winds and dry conditions have the potential to return on Thursday which can lead to critical fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A high pressure system is building across the southern plains today and then will sit across the southern plains through the mid week. This is bringing calm weather and sunny conditions to the panhandles for both today and Tuesday. The gradient associated with the high pressure is going to be fairly weak. This will result in mainly breezy daytime winds across the panhandles for both days while the overnight sees weak winds. The largest impact the panhandles will see from this high pressure system is the rapid increase in heat. This heating will see the high reach mainly in the 70s to 80s for today and then mainly the 90s for Tuesday. A few of the hottest areas such as the Canadian River Valley or Palo Duro Canyon can reach 100-102. This represent about a 10 to 20 degree increase in temperatures for each day. This heat is such that the highs on Tuesday will get close to or even tie some of the record high temperatures. This early season heat can pose a moderate risk for heat illness, mainly for those more sensitive to heat or those without sufficient hydration or cooling.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Wednesday the high pressure system has a high chance of moving to the east of the southern plains. This will be followed by a broad weather system starting to move into the Great Plains from the west. The trade off of weather system would most likely lead to a slight decrease in the temperatures on Wednesday with highs still remaining in the 90s. The skies will most likely start to see increasing cloud cover as cirrus starts to stream across the sky.

Then come Thursday the weather system has a high chance of moving across the Great Plains. The passage of this weather system will have a high chance of causing a tighter pressure gradient across the southern plains. This in turn will lead to breezy south to southwest winds across the panhandles for much of Thursday. These winds would drive in drier air and hot air across the panhandles. The combination of the dry and breezy conditions is such the elevated to critical fire weather conditions seems likely for Thursday. The hot air being moved in by the winds will most likely lead to an increase in the temperatures with there being another chance for 100 degree heat. The passage of the weather system has the potential of bringing limited moisture to the panhandles. This in turn is allowing for a very low chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. Even if one of these does occur the limited moisture will make any accumulation of rainfall very limited.

The weather system has a moderate chance of departing eastward on Friday leading to calmer, but still hot, weather conditions.

This weekend and into next week has building confidence that the weather pattern will shift to a more active one. This shift would allow for an increase in the amount of weather system, and thus rain chances, that can impact the southern plains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. Expect breezy winds during the daytime hours and light winds during the overnight at all terminals.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.