textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Hot temperatures prevail through much of the week. Temperatures at or above 105 degrees are still expected through today and Monday in the eastern combined Panhandles and PDC

- Near-critical fire weather conditions continue today, while elevated fire weather conditions persist through the next few days.

- We are watching a potential pattern change late this week that could increase rain chances and lead to more seasonal temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

No major changes were made in the short term forecast period. Hot high temperatures linger both today and tomorrow. Temperatures should decrease slightly across the west tomorrow, but the northeastern combined Panhandles still have a high chance of meeting or exceeding 105 degrees. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for these counties, alongside Palo Duro Canyon, and begins at noon tomorrow.

Fire weather conditions continue as elevated and even near- critical across our northern zones where winds are strongest this afternoon. At the time of this writing, a broad swath of RFTI values between 1 to 3 are present across the combined Panhandles. Some isolated areas may even reach RFTIs of 4 if 20 kt sustained winds persist this afternoon. Breezy winds will stay up overnight and continue CWA wide tomorrow afternoon, leading to another round of elevated fire weather conditions across the area.

Thunderstorm chances remain very low (<15%) in the short term period, but an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across our northwest zone this evening as long as they hold together moving out of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado. As mentioned previously, a dry thunderstorm risk is still present in these areas. Surface moisture is very shallow across the region; therefore, thunderstorms will have a difficult time producing wetting rains (>0.1") but may still produce lightning that could lead to fire starts.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Latest mid-range model guidance shows continued consistency in the upper ridge shifting and degrading eastward towards the middle of the week. Model signals still point towards the upper level high pressure center to eventually setup across the southeast CONUS by the end of the week. The question remains of how long the ridge will remain over the east and how high will heights rise next weekend. For now, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue with hot, dry, and windy headlines. PoPs increase considerably Thursday onward for much of the CWA, and the NBM has been persistent in keeping these rain chances through the rest of the week. That said, these 30-60% chances are not evenly spread out across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to favor the northwest combined Panhandles where the potential for better forcing exists. By Friday and into the weekend, high temperatures are still forecast to drop back to seasonal values. However, a few 100s cannot be ruled out in the southeast Texas Panhandle or Palo Duro Canyon. This cooler outcome will also depend on how strong troughing will become over the western US. Long range models are still largely inconsistent in how far south they allow frontal boundaries to move into the combined Panhandles. Of course, stronger fronts will allow for cooler temperatures; but if these fronts stall over parts of the area and retreat back north, The southern Texas Panhandle may still be on the warmer side and triple digit heat could persist in those areas while the rest of the FA falls back into the 90s.

Rangel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. A very low chance of a TS with erratic winds at KGUY/KDHT through 06Z, but not high enough to include in TAF period at this time. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010- 014-015-020-317.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ004-005-010- 317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ002-003.