textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

-Critical fire weather conditions expected across the central and southern Panhandles today and possibly again on Tuesday.

-Rain is the main concern, but will not rule out so isolated thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday for many areas of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A lot of the short term is covered in the Fire Weather discussion as that is the main impacts of the next two days. Tonight the surface low will track northeast out of the area and another lee surface low will set up keeping west winds in place across the southern Panhandles. This will also keep temperatures mild overnight as well as RH values on the lower side. Overnight lows this morning will be in the 50s to lower 60s, exception will be the northwest Panhandle which will still be under lighter northerly winds and will fall into the 40s.

For today we can expect winds to pick back up across the south leading to very dry conditions and critical Fire Weather as another lee surface low will be the main driver. Surface high will start to move down over Nebraska this evening and usher in some cooler moist temperatures tonight, with lows ranging from mid 30s to mid 40s. The south could be more upper 40s as we'll still have a bit of that westerly wind component trying to keep things on the mild side.

Tuesday will start off on the cooler side, but the upper disturbance under southwest flow will help nudge in that warmer air one more time and we can expect highs to get back into the 80s in the southern Panhandles with the 70s to the north. Depending on how strong that colder air to the north is, there is a chance that we do end up cooler/warmer as to just how far the main cold front will retreat will dictate the Panhandles temperatures. Once the sun goes down and the upper disturbance has past, the front will push further south and bring cooler north winds to the Panhandles tomorrow night.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

With the overnight cold front through Wednesday's highs will only be in the 70s, and we should be going downhill from there, as both cool and potentially moist air from the north will move into the Panhandles, as well as mild tropical air from a system over the southwest CONUS. Add to it the surface high shifting over the Mississippi area and drawing up moist low level flow, we have a lot of ingredients for a moist tropical setup that could last for 2 to 3 days of on and off precipitation with little to no signals this this will be a severe setup, and that temperatures will be in the mid 60s on Thursday, followed by 50s on Friday, and returning back into the 60s on Saturday. Three very cool/mild days with Min RH values in the 30-50 percent range and Max RH values over 90 percent each day. Add to that the probabilities of wetting rain > 0.25" for the 3 day period look to be moderate to high >55-75% for the entire Panhandles. Certain areas of the Panhandles having high probabilities to exceed 0.5" of rain for the Thursday-Saturday weather system, will really help the Fire Weather situation. Not much to talk about for Sunday at the moment as it looks like weak high pressure will return temperatures back in the 70s with a low chance of showers/storms under that northwest flow pattern.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be the main story as some LLWS will be present through 12-15z at KAMA and KGUY. Wind speeds will be mainly west to southwest and will pick up in the 15-03z time period as they are expected to be 15-20kts gusting 25-30kts. KGUY is an exception as winds there should be more in the 10-15kt range and will come around the clock starting around 15z out of the northwest, and will end up out of the southeast by 4z.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The Fire Weather will continue for at least another day or two as we have our eye on a potential prolonged wet and cool pattern starting as early as Wednesday, more likely on Thursday and Friday and finishing up on Saturday. But before we get there, we will continue to deal with warm, breezy, and dry conditions the rest of the evening and into Monday. Overnight the winds in the southern Panhandle will stay mainly out of the west and still be in the 10 to 15 mph range, which will result in poor RH recoveries for the southern Panhandles. The north will recover in the mid 40 to lower 50 percent range. Given that the southwest flow is still in play on Monday with a weak frontal boundary set up over the northern Panhandles, another round of critical Fire Weather will be in place on Monday. Monday night we should have some decent RH recoveries as that cold front pushes almost all the way through the Panhandles, but it will quickly pull off to the northeast on Tuesday afternoon with warm, dry, and breezy conditions yet again for at least the southern half of the Panhandles. RFTI's tomorrow across the south look to range 5 to 7, but Tuesday may be more in the 2 to 4 range, mainly RH driven, while it will be breezy the winds may stay in the 15 to 20 mph range keeping the wind component of the RFTI more in check. If those winds come up a bit then we can expect more of a 4 to 6 RFTI on Tuesday.

Tuesday night a surface high is expected to set up to the east as the cooler upper trough pushes down from the Great Lakes, that will help pull in higher dewpoints from the northeast and keep the highs on the cooler side for Wednesday, right now it looks to be in the low to mid 70s. Additionally the next system mentioned earlier may begin to bring the moisture to the Panhandles, and perhaps some much needed relief. Will note that overall guidance is favoring the southern Panhandles for moisture as Ensembles are suggesting an 80 percent chance of picking up at least a half an inch of rain by Saturday for Deaf Smith County, but Beaver County is only about a 45% chance of picking up at least a half an inch. Overall, most of the Panhandles still should be cool and have decent cloud cover as well as RH recoveries to help give the fuels a little break, but a prolonged rain that could start as early as Wednesday night and continue on and off through Saturday, would really help the fuels that have been stressed for so long.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006>020-317.

OK...None.