textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Low/Medium chance 20-40% of showers and storms later this evening in the northwest Panhandles with damaging wind gusts as the primary concern.

- Medium chance ~40% for thunderstorms in the central to northern Panhandles again on Wednesday and for the northeast Panhandles on Thursday. Low chance 5-14% for severe storms with damaging winds being the primary concern.

- Hot temperatures to return this weekend with highs likely in the 100 to 108 range.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Some mid level moisture across the northern Panhandles has allow for a couple elevated storms this afternoon. This may still continue into the early evening, before the main round of storms that will develop off the mountains and track into the northwest Panhandles. Temperatures in the northwest Panhandles will not be as hot, given the morning and afternoon cloud cover, plus northerly winds. This will keep the DCAPE values down around 1500-1600 J/kg. Effective shear will be decent in the 30-35kt range. With that the main concern will be strong damaging winds 60-65 mph. Main timing of storms will be from 7pm to 11pm tonight.

Tomorrow lingering out flow boundaries along with an expanded frontal boundary looks to set up across the northern Panhandles. This will allow for some late afternoon showers and storms before another wave moves across the Panhandles and helps push off more scattered storms across the northern Panhandles. Again, we'll have a chance for severe storms with damaging winds up to 70 mph being the main threat. As the main boundary looks to linger closer to the OK/KS state line, that will keep the warmer temperatures to the south and most areas will be close to 100 for a high. And overall winds will be out of the south around 15 to 20 mph with RH values in the teens to low 20s, so conditions will be a bit elevated for Fire Weather.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Thursday into the weekend, temperatures near 100 on Thursday and Friday. With the Four Corners high amplifying the flow will turn more northwesterly, but given the position of the high further east, the showers and storms look to come through the northeast Panhandle on Thursday. And by Friday the overall flow will turn more northerly, which really lowers the precipitation chances. NBM is giving about a 20 percent chance to the south, but overall the chances for showers and storms on Friday don't look great. As we continue into the weekend widespread 100 degrees expected with maybe some heat products being needed. Given the position of the high and the overall flow being northerly to northeasterly, the chances of precipitation are very low < 10 percent. Monday could turn the corner a bit as the potential to return to northwest flow is present, including an increase thunderstorm potential for the northwest Panhandles 10-20 percent.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Isolated storm just northwest of KDHT and may need a brief TEMPO amendment if the storm threatens the terminal. Greatest concern will be KDHT and KGUY from 00-06z to account for possible storms tonight, and KGUY isn't even high enough for a PROB30, as it's about a 10 percent chance and will be dealt with via amendments. Prob30 will cover 0-6z for KDHT but the most likely time for storms will be 2-5z. Strong gusty winds, with moderate to heavy rain will be the main concern with the storms. Winds will start out of the north around 15kts and gradually go variable 5-10kts through about 15z. Exception to the wind direction will be KAMA which will have south winds 10-15kts through about 15z, and then all TAF sites picking up 15-20kts gusting up to 30kts from 15-00z.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.