textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Dangerously hot temperatures continue in the short term with widespread 100s, but a gradual decrease is expected through the weekend with upper 90s being more common.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue today through Friday, primarily in the northwest.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The latest water vapor imagery shows anticyclonic flow centered over northeast New Mexico with a plume of monsoon moisture extending from AZ through the central rockies and adjacent plains. The high pressure responsible for our recent heat wave has finally started to shift west of the Panhandle region. Cloud debris from overnight convection has been burning off through the day and should allow for one more very hot afternoon with widespread 105 to 110 apparent temperatures. Given this, we have heat advisories for most of the combined Panhandles with Palo Duro Canyon under an extreme heat warning with some of the hottest temperatures of around 110 expected. The high pressure will continue to shift westward over the next few days leading to cooler highs in the low 100s tomorrow. Thus, fewer heat products are anticipated after today, mainly covering our hot spots around the area.

As the high pressure shifts west, steering flow will become more favorable for storms to push into the northwest Panhandles during the evening and overnight hours (similar to last night). These storms will be moving into increasingly dry air as they move southeast, so there will be a sharp cutoff to the storm activity based on the dry H7 theta-E advection indicated in the southeast half of the Panhandle region. Storms in the northwest today and tomorrow will be in the rich monsoon moisture plume where PWATs are around 90th-95th percentile, and with slow storm motion could pose a localized flooding threat. While a rogue wind gust can't be ruled out given high DCAPE, the probability for severe storms is very low due to marginal shear and instability.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure continues to shift more over the Desert Southwest through the weekend which will allow temperatures to fall to slightly above normal with high 90s being common. Storm chances will also peak around late Thursday into Friday as northwest flow becomes more prominent and stronger. This will allow shortwave energy to traverse the area providing more widespread lift. The big questions now is with quality of moisture and instability, along with position of a weak cold front going into Friday. If the storm activity ends up being more widespread late Thursday, temperatures may be a bit cooler than currently forecasted leading to more 90s on Friday rather than near 100.

Ward

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Main concern will be for low probability (20-30%) thunderstorm impacts this evening at KDHT and KGUY. Any storm could produce brief MVFR conditions due to heavy rain. An outflow boundary is expected to shift winds to the north late this evening into the overnight, with gusty conditions expected. A rogue wind gust over 40kts is not out of the question, but chances are very low. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-007>020.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.