textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

-Low chance (15-20%) of a thunderstorm for the eastern OK Panhandle later today.

-Daily chances of strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds possible Thursday through Sunday.

-Localized flooding from heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Latest 16Z observations across the Panhandles shows southerly and southwesterly flow across the region with temperatures well into 60s and with highs expected to top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Further north across the central Plains, a slow southward moving cold front across Kansas is associated with a low pressure system centered over southwestern Manitoba moving east.

Along this cold front, the orthogonal flow along said cold front, coupled with some instability should generate showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Kansas. The southern extent of the storm coverage could reach the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle before overall chances quickly move east as we approach 03-06Z Thursday. Chances are not too high for rain chances in this area (15-20%), but still the potential is there.

Going into Thursday, a mid level perturbation well out ahead of the main H500 parent low off the coast of central California will move into the Panhandles Thursday afternoon. Lift along the mid level perturbation and sfc trough across the western Panhandles, coupled with diurnal heating will result in sct thunderstorms to develop along area of best sfc convergence. Latest guidance supports multi cell clusters of storms where initial updrafts could support hail up to 1.25" and 60 mph winds with CAPE values around 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kts. With said diurnal heating, timing of thunderstorms would likely be mid afternoon through evening hours before thunderstorm coverage dissipates. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

For Friday through the the coming weekend, rain chances continue for the Panhandles. Starting on Friday, the stalled frontal boundary with enough lift and instability may generate additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms where some could be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. Further to the west across eastern NM, aided by another mid level perturbation and a notable isodrosotherms boundary, with depth in moisture to add, areas of showers and elevated thunderstorms may develop and slowly move east into the Panhandles Friday night into Saturday. With PWAT values approaching an inch (75th percentile for April climo) and steering flow anemic, heavy rainfall rates with localized flooding will have to be watched carefully.

Saturday afternoon, if we can get some break after the morning activity, another mid level perturbation will move through and could generate additional thunderstorms, which some could be severe. If the instability is present, all hazards could be in play, especially with such a moist LL environment. Will watch trends closely in the next few days. The main moisture axis will shift into central and western OK by Sunday, but still give the eastern Panhandles a chance for additional strong to severe thunderstorms. Dry conditions then return for the early next work week. High temperatures throughout the long term forecast period will continue to be near to above average form mid April.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Winds will stay breezy out of the south at 10-20 kts throughout the period, with gusts of 25-30 kts this evening and tomorrow afternoon. Increasing winds off the deck may pose some marginal LLWS concerns tonight, but the breezier surface winds should mostly negate that. We will keep an eye on storm potential towards the end of the period tomorrow afternoon, which may require some PROB30 groups primarily for KGUY and KDHT in later TAF issuances. Otherwise, VFR sky conditions should prevail for a majority of the period.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.