textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through Wednesday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday, and there is a very low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm each day after.

- Widespread mid-90 to low/mid-100 degree temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday. 90s are expected to return through the rest of the week, and 100s are favored to return for the Holiday weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A stagnant large-scale weather pattern is expected to continue in the short-term and into a portion of the long-term period. This consists of an upper-level ridge stationed over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and a longwave trough over the Western US.

We will see a surface low pressure system develop in eastern Colorado on Sunday which will steepen the surface pressure gradient, resulting in yet another breezy day. A surface trough will push east through the day and it should stall in the eastern Panhandles by the late afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper- 90s to low/mid-100s across the Panhandles. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Palo Duro Canyon and Hutchinson county.

Although mid-level forcing be weak, will not rule out the possibility of few isolated showers or thunderstorms developing in the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle. Forecast soundings in this vicinity show 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE amid decent mid-level moisture with strong drying and warming noted below that layer. This suggests that any rain will likely evaporate before reaching the surface (virga); if rain does reach the surface, it will not amount to much. This will yield very strong DCAPE values around 1800-2000 J/kg, strongly supporting robust downdrafts associated with the virga. Effective shear values are expected to be around 25-35 kts with a veered-but-straight hodograph, suggesting organized multicells will be the primary storm mode. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible in this environment. Any of this activity that can develop will likely weaken after sunset owing to the lack of forcing and cooling temperatures.

Again, a similar setup is expected for Monday. However, there are a few differences: temperatures may be slightly less hot, but still looking at upper-90s to low-100s across the Panhandles; the surface trough is not expected to mix as far east; there is expected to be some non-negligible mid-level forcing. This should result in a slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms across the southern and eastern combined Panhandles as compared to Sunday. Instability is expected to be stronger than Sunday at 2000-3000 J/kg, but DCAPE values will be weaker but still favorable for damaging wind gusts at 1700-1900 J/kg. However, effective shear is expected to be weaker at 15-20 kts, suggesting pulse cells or weakly organized multi-cells. Thunderstorms should weaken after sunset due to cooling temperatures.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

As alleuded to in the short-term discussion, the large-scale weather pattern will not change much going into Tuesday: a potent upper- level ridge will be stationed over the Ohio Valley as a trough persists over the Western US. A surface low will develop in eastern Colorado which will lead to breezy winds across the Panhandles. However, this surface low is expected to stay put which will keep a surface trough stationed over the far western Panhandles. A subtle shortwave is favored to move into the Panhandles around the late- afternoon hours which could lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Instability, DCAPE, and shear values are favored to be weaker than previous days, but still can't rule out some strong wind gusts. Unlike previous days, some moderate to potentially heavy will be possible with any thunderstorm.

By Wednesday, the Panhandles will remain under southwesterly flow aloft with a surface trough staying in far northeastern New Mexico or the far western Panhandles. Once again, at least modest mid-level forcing is currently favored to move into the Panhandles later in the afternoon which supports another chance for thunderstorms. There are some indications that a slightly more potent shortwave trough could move through which would enhance the dynamics in the area, potentially increasing storm coverage and wind shear. However, confidence in that is low at this time.

Thursday and beyond, the trough that had been persistent over the Western US will lift into the northern Plains while another trough dips into the Western US. This will allow the upper-level ridge over the Eastern US to expand westward into the Panhandles, allowing temperatures to heat back up and precipitation chances to drop. Highs in the upper-90s to 100s are currently in the forecast for the 4th of July.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Low-level wind shear is expected through much of the night for Amarillo and Guymon, but it is expected to weaken by 11z and 10z respectively. Winds will strengthen during the day and become breezy with gusts between 30-35 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ008-317.

OK...None.