textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly for the western and central combined Panhandles.

- Low thunderstorm chances continue through weekend before drying out next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

An active end to the work week culminates today, when our rain/storm chances peak for much of the Panhandles. Weak high pressure to our west will allow for another day of mid 90s to low 100s high temperatures this afternoon, with breezy south winds of 10-20 mph persisting across the southern TX Panhandle. Models also depict subtle north-northwest flow along the edge of the upper level ridge, which will send a perturbation to the region through the afternoon and evening hours. For the central and northern Panhandles, hi-res cams show a remnant outflow boundary from overnight-morning storms likely settling somewhere along or north of the Canadian River Valley. Behind this feature, higher dew points in the 60s are forecast, along with slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds. This boundary could act as a focal point for afternoon scattered storm development, especially across the NE Panhandles (20-30% POPs). The main show should begin to the west shortly after, as a shortwave kicks off a broken MCS off the higher terrain of NM & CO. This line will push southeast across the western and central panhandles through the evening, gradually diminishing as outflow boundaries and evening inhibition eventually choke off convection.

The main question is how strong will storms be and how far south and east can they survive before fizzling out? Current probabilities suggest the north and western Panhandles have 40-70% rain chances, decreasing to 20-40% across the central counties of our CWA. Even storms are weakening by the time they reach the south-central TX Panhandle, most CAMs still show some activity surviving atop the Amarillo-Canyon area. The southeast TX Panhandle has lowest rain chances due to drier air intruding from the south. CAPE values will be modest today (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, even behind the outflow boundary), but bulk wind shear will be closer to 30kts. These factors combined with 1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE suggest severe wind gusts could be achievable, especially across the western Panhandles with the MCS. Strongest storms could also be heavy rain producers, thanks to PWATs of 1.0-1.5" throughout the region (10-40% probability for localized >1" rain).

Looking at Saturday, forecast trends point to a quieter day in terms of storm potential, with very comparable temperatures to today. Winds will be much lighter out of the southeast at 5-15 mph, with partly cloudy skies. Moisture content over the region will remain favorable for shower/storm development, although lack of upper level forcing would likely make coverage more isolated. Forecast soundings suggest that as convective temperatures area reached in the afternoon-evening hours, spotty "popcorn" convection could materialize (15-25% POPs). CAPE and shear profiles indicate strong/severe storms can't be ruled out, but are less likely than today.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Progressing through the second full week of July, global models depict a rather interesting synoptic pattern for the Panhandles. Ensembles place a stout, elongated dome of 500mb high pressure wobbling across the heart of the central CONUS, which would place east-northeast flow aloft atop our region of the High Plains through next week. This unusual setup would promote mostly warm (highs in the 90s to near triple digits) and drier conditions, although some occasional storm chances could still be feasible if any stronger disturbances arrive along the periphery of the ridge (mostly <15% rain chances). The best opportunity for storms appears to be across the southern Texas Panhandle on Sunday, when one of these passing perturbations arrives in tandem with improved mid-level moisture. Even with that being the case, blended model guidance only paints <30% shower and storm chances for the region to cap off the weekend. We will monitor any shifts in the position of the upper level ridge through the week, as minor changes could spell significant improvements or deterioration in rain chances any given day.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through at least 21z with winds 5 to 15kts out of varying directions. After 21z and through about 3 to 6z there will be the chance for storms at all TAF sites. PROB30s have been noted at each site for the best timing of thunderstorm chances. After 6z storms should be clear of all TAF sites and VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF period with light and variable winds through 12z Saturday.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.