textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least Monday.

- Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle this afternoon into this evening.

- Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Latest in-situ observations show decaying complex of storms moving south through the south and rolling plains this evening, with a few more isolated showers in the eastern NM plains. GOES mid level water vapor imagery shows ridging across the Rocky Mountains with a better defined anti-cyclonic circulation center near east central NM. A trough of low pressure is impinging the much broader high pressure from the Pacific Northwest, and the combination of these features is keeping a large fetch of monsoon moisture across the intermountain west and adjacent plains. The latest 00z KAMA sounding continue to indicate well above normal heights for 500mb registering 597dm. However, this is a slight decrease from yesterday's 00z launch which was closer to 599dm, and we expect heights to continue to fall slowly over the next few days as the high center shifts more over the Desert Southwest.

For tomorrow, the latest HREF and REFS members continue to hint at a modest shortwave perturbation rounding the high center and moving through the northern Panhandle during the evening. With ample H7-H5 moisture and an axis of instability peaking around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, storms firing off the higher terrain of CO/NM might have a decent environment to work with allowing them to persist well into the evening as they track east southeast. Given this, have increased PoPs slightly over NBM to nudge more towards the CAMs, as they have performed well lately and generally show more activity than the medium range guidance. PoPs will decrease with southern extent towards the central and southern TX Panhandle due to the position of the shortwave, however, some isolated storms may fire in the south during the afternoon as high temperatures are expected to exceed convective T. With DCAPE values around 1300-1600 (inverted-V profiles) and mostly low shear (<20kts effective shear), rogue microbursts will be a concern. If the storms congeal across the OK Panhandle a far northern TX Panhandle, strong to damaging winds gusts may become more scattered than isolated, but the lack of shear should result in outflow dominant cells. Some pockets of heavy downpours are also expected with the stronger storms given modest PWATs 1.0-1.3", but these storms may be moving fast enough that flooding is not expected. Otherwise, it will be hot again, with most of the central and east zones under a heat advisory and PDC will get an Extreme Heat Warning. Some spotty elevated fire weather is also expected given the slight uptick in southwest winds during the afternoon.

For Monday, a similar setup unfolds with the addition of a weak boundary in the area. Temperatures should be slightly cooler, and it looks like a later arrival for any shortwaves. Thus, storms may be more spotty until late in the evening. Heat advisories look likely for parts of the south, but that could hinge on the strength and position of the boundary currently indicated in the short range models.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that high pressure will continue shifting west Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and overnight storms. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also in response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure center resulting in less amplified low level thermal ridge. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are suggesting.

Ward

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are once again possible this afternoon thanks in part to a weak short-wave brushing the far north. Currently, present CAMs have KGUY with the best chances of seeing storms with enough confidence present to justify a PROB30 group for the current package. As for KAMA and KDHT, a handful of CAMs have seen the potential of an isolated storms passing through or within the vicinity of the terminal. However, confidence in this is only around 10 to 20 percent with chances of any actual impact to the terminals even less. Regardless, any storm that does pass over a terminal could result in a strong and erratic outflow wind gust and a brief period of reduce visibility due to heavy rainfall. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold for the vast majority of the package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-012>015-017-018.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020-317.

OK...None.