textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Daily potential for thunderstorms today through Tuesday. There is a chances for severe thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

- Presence of high amounts of moisture today through Sunday may lead to localized flooding in the Panhandles. - Potential for widespread hot conditions to return Wednesday with triple digits highs returning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The quicker passage of the front yesterday has seen shower and thunderstorm development struggle for early portions of the overnight. However, mid to low-level flow is expected to start shifting to a more easterly to southeasterly direction, which will provide extra moisture advection into the Panhandles during the early morning hours. Should we get enough lift off the Cap Rock or an outflow boundary, then it is possible to see an overnight severe thunderstorm. Still CAMs are not too enthused on the idea given most of our insatiability is elevated with good potential to see a low-level cloud deck build in by sunrise. Regardless this moisture advection is expected to continue well into this afternoon and evening resulting in PWATS across the Panhandles rising to around 1 to 1.3 inches depending on how far east you are. This increase in moisture will also come with a rise in MLCAPE values with some models even capping out at around 3000 to 4000 J/kg that evening. However there is a decent lack of wind shear present thanks to the upper-level high system pressure holding over the Panhandles, which will make it hard for storms to stay too organized for the day. Regardless CAMs are still trending for the Panhandles getting an opportunity to utilize this moisture and insatiability later this evening when short-wave passes through our north. If this short-wave can generate enough lift, then severe thunderstorms capable of hail upwards of 2 inches and wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph are not unlikely with potential to last clear into the late night hours.

As we move into Saturday, models do see the upper-level high pressure system hold through the morning and early afternoon. However, current trends do look to see our next round of storms come in with arrival of a cold front by that evening. Once again models are seeing this as more of CAPE than a wind shear environment, though with focus more in the eastern Panhandles Saturday evening. Still with 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE present we could see some storms produce hail upwards of 1.5 inches so long as they can stay ahead of the front. What may be an bigger concern may be our flooding potential with present CAMs seeing PWAT values is some areas reach over 1.5 inches. Currently WPC has the entire Panhandles under a Marginal (1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Behind the front Sunday, model agreement sees the upper-level high begin to back off and retreat to our southwest. This will allow for Panhandles to fall under a more northwesterly flow clear into next week. With this flow in place, most models do see us set up to see multiple short-wave pass through the area, which will allow for chance at showers and thunderstorms to continue each day. For Sunday in particular, activity looks to be more along the lines of showers with embedded thunderstorms thanks to a lack of CAPE and still high PWAT values present. However, these chances do start fall off starting Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper-level high tries to build back alongside the heat. As for Wednesday itself, current models continue to see it as the hottest day of the week with potential to see another round of triple digit temperatures once again. More chances at storms could follow again next Thursday and Friday, but there is too much model disagreement to have high confidence in it.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MVFR ceilings are currently being observed at KAMA. The ceilings should lift over the next few hours and then VFR conditions are forecast through 00z at the terminals. The wind will shift to out of the south during the day with gusts up to 30 kts. Thunderstorms will once again be possible after 00z at all sites and PROB30 groups have been kept given that potential. Any storms that move over the terminals may produce erratic and strong wind gusts and large hail in addition to lightning. The wind will decrease after any potential thunderstorms go through but should remain out of the south.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.