textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- A 10 to 25 percent chances of storms remain present today through Friday afternoon with main impact being heavy rainfall.

- Dry and hot conditions will begin to build back in this weekend with potential to be back near or in the triple digits by the start of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Present observations for today as well as latest radar has seen the surface low shift further north than initially expected. This has seen more showers build just to our south with current storm motion seeing potential for said showers or at least a boundary making its way into the Panhandles. While these showers and/or boundary would have to still deal with the drier air holding strong in the mid to upper-level of the atmosphere, there is still some decent moisture present at the surface that can either help maintain or start new showers across the Southeastern Texas Panhandles. In terms of impacts, present models continue to see little to no CAPE or wind shear present, which makes the potential for severe thunderstorms very low. Instead focus has been more on the PWAT values as models continue to see them trend on the higher side, especially across the southeast. As it stands present mesoanalysis is seeing values anywhere between 1.3 to 1.5 across our southeast with the rest of the Panhandles siting above 1 inch. With values like this present it would be possible to see heavy rainfall even out of small storms, which could lead to some localized flooding should storms stall or train over an area. This concern becomes further amplified come Thursday night into Friday afternoon, as most CAMs see PWAT values rise even further with some runs even suggesting values nearing 2 inches in the far Southeastern Texas Panhandles. If storms can develop under those conditions, then very heavy rainfall could easily lead to more flooding concerns for the day. However, the issue once again revolves around actually getting storms to form as most CAMS do see the present low start to weaken Friday afternoon in favor of building high pressure. Still a few CAMs have held on to the potential for scatter to isolated showers present across the Panhandles with the best chances, at around 10 to 25 percent, holding in the southern Texas Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper-level pattern does look like it will begin to shift once again as we head into the weekend and next week. Currently present model agreement sees the weak upper-level low break down in favor of a much stronger ridge and high pressure system settling just to our north. This ridge will make quick work of any present moisture over the Panhandles with chances of showers dropping below 10 percent by Saturday with Sunday and the rest of the week fairing no better. With high pressure returning, the Panhandles will also see temperatures begin to warm with most locations back in the low to mid 90s this weekend. Unfortunately this trend will continue into next week with afternoon high temperatures once again threatening to reach the triple digits, and some of our hotter locations, such as the Palo Duro Canyon, potentially needing heat related products.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Present radar and satellite have seen the surface low to our south shift further north than initially expected, which has seen some showers start to develop near the Southeastern Texas Panhandles. At this time confidence is low that any of these showers will either make it to or develop over the terminals for this afternoon and evening. Instead it will be more likely to see few to scatter cloud decks present over the area with all terminals holding at VFR conditions for the current TAF package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.