textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Friday and Saturday further thunderstorms are forecasted for the afternoon and evening each day. Medium Chance Friday (Low Saturday) for severe storms that can produce large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

- Warmer temperatures Sunday through Thursday, with continued on and off chances of showers and storms most days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Showers and storms from this evening will exit the Panhandles tonight, and will leave some low clouds and maybe some patchy drizzle tonight. As we head into Friday afternoon the upper trough centered over the Dakotas will start to work its way to the northeast and leave a more zonal flow with some warmer air expected to move into the Panhandles. But we'll start the day withe low clouds and ample low level moisture. As we start to heat up and clear out in the afternoon, a subtle wave is projected to move across the Panhandles in the mid to late afternoon adding a bit more forcing to assist in any lift. Will note that both elevated to surface based storms will be possible, as there's enough mid level moisture and the cooling above 700mb with that wave that we could lift the parcel at 700mb even if we don't get enough surface heating. Looks like convective initiation would be in the 2 to 4 PM time frame, but the severe threat could linger to around midnight, with maybe some lingering showers/storms during the overnight time period. ML CAPE in the afternoon looks to be around 1000-2000 J/kg with about 25-35kts of shear would certainly support a hail and wind threat. Storms should start off as supercells capable of winds op to 65 mph and hail up to golf ball. But in time will likely converge into an MCS as the storms track across the central to eastern Panhandle, and will become more of a wind threat at that point. The tornado threat is still very low as low level helicity values are not too impressive.

Saturday will be just a bit cooler than Friday with northwest flow in play. Overall, similar triggers will be set up, decent mid level moisture, with some forcing from an embedded shortwave in the west to northwest flow, and CAPE values are more limited in the 500-1500 J/kg range. The severe threat really does look marginal for Saturday as shear is not as impressive, but still could be more beneficial rain that is very much needed in the Panhandles. Showers again are expected to diminish into the evening an overnight with maybe an isolated storm or two lingering overnight Saturday night.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Warmer temperatures in store on Sunday as a weak ridge sets up just east of the Four Corners. This will result in a more stable environment, however we are expected to heat u just enough that we might pull off some inverted V setups for some isolated afternoon storms, as it appears another subtle wave may move through to help those storms pop as well as the daytime heating. Highs on Sunday look to be widespread 80s for the most part. Monday afternoon a somewhat negative tilt upper trough centered over Las Vegas, NV is expected to move into the eastern AZ and the NM area late afternoon into the evening. This will favor scattered to widespread storms over the NM mountains. Some of the storms are expected to track east late into the evening on Monday night. But the question still remains as to if they will actually remain in the Panhandles or end and leave the area rain free for the night. As we move into Tuesday the system is progged to slow down and take even more of a negative tilt which will set up the potential for widespread storms across portions of the Panhandles, the big question is where the storms will form, and will the timing and forcing coincide with maximum heating in instability. But overall the shear isn't too impressive and would expect just general thunderstorms, that could be slow moving as well as training at times, that could support the ample moisture we've been needing. The issue is, being so far out and too much can change that would ruin the setup. Wednesday the system will still be working through the Panhandles, and there could be some lingering showers and storms left over, but then on Thursday we should be on the back side of the system with very warm and dry conditions returning as heights increase due to a building ridge over the west.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MVFR/IFR possible conditions in the 09-15z time frame due to low clouds that may linger through about 15 to 18z, in which we should return VFR thereafter. Winds will be out of the south in the 10-15 kt range for the most part. 14-18z winds will shift out of the north to northeast at all TAF sites. PROB30s noted around 21z for thunderstorms. Right now the best chances look to be at KAMA, but KDHT and KGUY still have the potential.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.