textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Further daily chances of thunderstorms will continue Saturday through Tuesday and there is a low chance for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. - Presence of high amounts of moisture today through Sunday may lead to localized flooding in the Panhandles from the thunderstorms. - Potential for widespread hot conditions to return Wednesday with triple digits highs returning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A good bit of storm activity across the northern combined Panhandles overnight, may have left some residual outflow boundaries that may contribute to additional thunderstorms this afternoon. Models suggest at least some positive H7 theta-e advection coming into the central to southern combined Panhandles today, across the central to southern TX Panhandle, south of a surface boundary. Although flow aloft is expected to be mostly zonal over the area, a mid to upper level trough is expected to start digging into the Northern to Central Great Plains as a Hudson Bay Low deepens. This is expected to send some ripples in the flow aloft and may help thunderstorm activity this afternoon. It is also expected to help send a cold front into the area tonight. A prefrontal boundary wind shift along with residual outflow boundaries are likely to be the main driver for lift. Depending on where these boundaries exist by noon today will determine the locations for best chances to see thunderstorms as the better theta-e stays south of the boundary.

Hot temperatures are expected once again this afternoon with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Palo Duro Canyon currently have a Heat Advisory in effect for temperatures topping out at 105. Even to the north temperatures are to remain warm as the main cold front is not anticipated to impact afternoon highs. The heat along with the moisture present may lead to some instability for severe storms once again. But this will depend on the timing of storms and recovery from last nights activity.

The cold front overnight will bring about some relief, temperature wise, for Sunday afternoon. Sunday's highs are progged to top out in the low to mid 70s, which is quite cool for this time of year. These cooler temperatures will partly be from CAA but also from quite a bit of cloud cover and continued chances for showers to linger behind the front well into Sunday as monsoonal like moisture continues to pump into NM then into the Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

As showers and thunderstorms wane on Sunday, the rest of the week looks to be mainly dry through Thursday. An upper level ridge is expected to build over the area with temperatures creeping into the lower triple digits by Wed. Both the NBM and GFS are giving Amarillo a high temperature around 104-105 for Wed afternoon. This may be over done as the H5 heights on GFS are around 586dam as troughing exist just to the northeast of the FA thanks to a Hudson Bay Low continuing. Will have to watch Wed very closely for this dangerous heat though. With the troughing to the northeast a backdoor cold front is possible for Thursday with northeast winds helping to bring highs back down to the lower to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the first half of this TAF cycle. The wind will increase out of the southwest later this morning and gusts could be as high as 25-30 kts. Thunderstorms will likely form again this afternoon through this evening. Storms may cause erratic wind due to outflow boundaries even if they do not move directly over a terminal. PROB30 groups have been included in the TAFs for the best chances for a storm to be near the sites. A cold front will move in behind the thunderstorms switching the wind to out of the northeast. Low clouds will move in behind the front as well dropping the ceilings to MVFR or IFR through the end of this TAF issuance.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.