textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Thunderstorms will move into the western combined Panhandles this evening, some of which will have the possibility to become severe.

- Extreme heat expected for the combined Panhandles on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Upper-level NW flow is in place over the combined Panhandles as a result of a positively-tilted long wave trough spanning from the east coast to the Northern Great Plains. Northwesterly flow across the Rockies will establish a lee side shortwave perturbation, developing a low pressure center in central CO. Upsloping flow and differential heating of higher terrain will initiate storms in south-central CO and eastern NM. Storms will move southeasterly into the combined Panhandles where they will run into moderate instability (~1000 J/kg) and 30-40 kts of effective shear. This will support the possibility of developing a few supercells, before upscale growth into a messier storm mode (likely clusters) as it progresses southeasterly. The best conditions for severe weather reside in the northwestern combined Panhandles, where the more widespread shear meets the most instability. Hodographs look slightly better in this region as well, but weak surface winds keep hodographs modest in the low-levels. However, inverted-V soundings and DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg support the potential for strong wind gusts as storms move through.

Continuous southwesterly flow overnight and through the day on Tuesday is progged to increase maximum temperatures by another 10 degrees, putting most of the Panhandles in the low-90's. With moisture still lingering, the possibility for diurnally heated storms to convect remains. This is especially true in the southeast CWA due to some some slight help of surface convergence from the eastward progression of a diffuse moisture boundary.

Hot and dry southwesterly surface flow is going to top out our temperatures on Wednesday. These SW winds will persist through the overnight, but fall off into the afternoon hours, allowing high temperatures to go untouched by breeze. H850 temperatures are forecasted in the low- to mid- 30's. The entirety of the combined Panhandles are expected to be in the triple digits, with PDC currently forecasted to reach 110 degrees.

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Temperatures will taper back off on Thursday as a frontal passage moves through the Panhandles, shifting winds to northerly. However, maxT's will still remain in the 80's, before continuing to rise through the weekend. Northerly flow will shift to easterly by Thursday night, providing moisture and upsloping flow for PoP chances to return to the forecast on Friday. Into the weekend, a trough off of the southern coast of California begins to eject over the Panhandles, which after a couple days of easterly and southeasterly moist air moving into the area, could bring back daily thunderstorm chances. These daily thunderstorm chances currently favor the eastern Panhandles starting as early as Saturday evening.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

As of this afternoon, the present cloud deck from this morning is showing signs of breaking down with most of the terminals returning to more consistent VFR conditions. However, these conditions may not last as present CAMs do see another round of showers and thunderstorms developing in the Western Panhandles around 22 to 23 UTC that are expected to progress south and east through much of the night time hours. While chances are low, the potential is present for KAMA and KDHT to experience severe weather impacts in the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, the primary impact is likely to be more focused on reduce visibility due to moderate to heavy rainfall from these storms. Otherwise, conditions do look to clear as we near the midnight time frame with a low chance of lingering showers for the overnight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.