textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

-Thunderstorms will be possible Friday and into the first half of the weekend with strong winds and localized flooding possible.

-Very warm temperatures with Triple digit high temperatures return next week for a few locations.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Latest obs and water vapor analysis shows a H500 positive tilted wave with its main axis reaching the Gulf of California. This has resulted in a series of south to north mid level perturbation across west Texas. THis has resulted in rain chances, mainly for the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains for tonight. Some surface boundaries and/or outflow boundaries for said convection further south could move north and northwest to produce additional showers and thunderstorms tonight, but chances overall remain pretty low (~10%) with the highest chances in the southern Texas Panhandle. The aforementioned H500 wave by Friday will slowly begin to move northeast towards the Rio Grande river by Friday evening as it enters the main steering flow. In the meantime, throughout the day on Friday, additional showers and thunderstorm chances from diurnal heating is possible. However, overall effective shear remains very limited under 20 kts. This will not support longevity of any thunderstorms that develop. However, any notable updrafts may produce strong downdrafts and/or generate cold pools to help initiate new thunderstorm development. Overall chances for thunderstorm development for the Panhandles will range from 10-30%. Better chance for thunderstorms, especially for the eastern Panhandles will be on Saturday as the main H500 now closed low traverses the Texas Panhandle from SW to NE. Similar to Friday, thunderstorm setup will involve very anemic shear. However, for Saturday, with the main low moving over the Panhandles, higher mid level lapse rates should result in more overall lift for slow moving thunderstorms. With PWAT values approaching 99th percentile and overall steering flow quite limited, will have to watch closely for heavy rainfall rates with any thunderstorms that develop, along with strong wind gusts potential from decaying thunderstorms. Any stronger updrafts within the proximity of the center of the low could also result in some hail potential as well. High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, cooling off slightly with increased rain chances on Saturday with highs ranging from the lower to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A building omega block will develop over the eastern 2/3 CONUS going towards the middle to late next week. Overall dry conditions will persist through most of the coming week. With strong low level WAA into the Panhandles being under the ridge of the block, this will result in overall temperatures well above average. As the main block shifts east towards the end of the long term forecast period, as seen with the latest model guidance, rain chances may return, and will be watching trends closely in the coming days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10-15 kts with gusts over 20 kts at times. Skies will feature sct to bkn high clouds.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.