textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible tonight into early Friday morning, with some storms that could be severe and capable of producing large hail.

- Thunderstorms will be possible daily over the next several days for the Panhandles, with varying degree of coverage each day.

- Triple digit heat could return the second half of the coming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

In the wake of the cold front earlier today, current 18Z observations shows temperatures ranging from the mid 60s int he SE TX Panhandle to mid and upper 70s in the western combined Panhandles due to lingering cloud cover, and some very light patchy drizzle at times with upslope NE sfc flow. Further south of the Texas Panhandle, decent H700 (+)theta-e advection from the SW and surface flow from the N/NE is helping to develop some shower activity along the aforementioned cold front. Our latest 18Z AMA sounding shows a strongly capped surface based sounding, however, with an abundance MUCAPE of around 2700 J/kg (on par with current 18Z RAP/HRRR analysis for this hour). The more concentrated area of elevated instability could be the catalyst of additional strong to severe thunderstorms overnight tonight. The combination of a SE progressing H700 trough bisecting the TX Panhandle later this evening into tonight, in- conjunction with residual cold pools from decaying thunderstorms moving into the region from surface based activity further south and southeast, should result in enough lift for elevated thunderstorms to develop. Latest guidance shows general timing of storms starting as early as 04-06Z and continuing through 10-12Z, mainly for the central and eastern combined Panhandles. With elevated instability to work with and the positioning of the H700 trough, hail will be the primary hazard to watch closely tonight, along with heavy rain and vivid lightning. Conditions should improve from west to east through Friday morning as storms exit the region, before thunderstorm activity picks up potentially for the far western TX Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon with upslope flow off the Sangre de Cristos. Limited steering flow should contain most activity in NM, but some storms could reach the western Panhandles. High temperatures on Friday will range across the 80s for all of the Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

H500 zonal flow, eventually becoming more northwesterly towards the end of the forecast period where persistent diurnally driven thunderstorm activity will be possible. Northern combined Panhandles will be favored each day for chances of showers and thunderstorms, most likely evening into the overnight hours each day. Depending on the steering flow, more of the Texas Panhandle could be in play for thunderstorms as well, with the highest chances most likely further northwest in the combined Panhandles. The potential is there for more discrete cells to form and could be strong to severe, starting on Saturday, and with each passing day, there is a non-zero chance for severe thunderstorms. With strong H850 WAA through the coming weekend, high temperatures will climb well above average, with some locations that could see at or above 100 degrees by Sunday. Temperatures into next week should continue to be at or slightly above average for mid to late June.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

MVFR conditions to start the 18Z TAF period at KAMA/KDHT with VFR conditions at KGUY. MVFR to at times IFR cigs should impact all TAF sites starting around 03-04Z throughout the remainder of the TAF period. A PROB30 group was added for KAMA from 05-10Z for TSRA potential. Winds will start out of the NNE at 15-25 kts with higher gusts at times. Winds will then veer to easterly after 00Z at 5-15 kts and then veer again to southerly past 12Z to the end of the TAF period at 5-15 kts.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.