textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- A prolonged heat wave is building through the week with major to extreme heat risk anticipated for much of the area by the end of the week.

- An increase in thunderstorm coverage expected Thursday night into Friday. Main threats from storms will be lighting strikes and gusty winds. Locally heavy downpours could lead to very localized minor flooding mainly Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Hot temperatures will be the main story. A heat advisory remains in effect for roughly the eastern half of the Panhandles into the evening hours. Confidence is not high we will reach heat advisory levels except in the typical hot spots on Wednesday. A weak backdoor boundary in the east is expected to hold down temperatures there slightly from todays readings, but model consensus on this is not 100%, so we will have confined a heat advisory for tomorrow to PDC although we have noted the canyon has struggled more than normal to reach higher readings likely due to the 2+ inch rainfall which was isolated to that region last weekend. We may need to expand the Heat Advisory to include the other hotspot of Moore,Hutchinson COs and possibly Collingsworth where some higher probabilities of 105 degree readings exist (30-70%).

Can't rule out a very isolated afternoon/evening shower/storm mainly across the west this aftn and evening associated with slightly better H7 moist axis and weak west moving disturbance, but CAMs have been trending less and less with this potential and chances or rain have decreased below 10 percent. A couple daytime heating showers or storms are expected on Wednesday mainly north of I-40 given decent H7 moisture and a weak backdoor front that will stall across the eastern Panhandles. The far southern extent of storms associated with a disturbance moving east from CO to KS may also trigger a shower or storm in the evening across the OK Panhandle Thursday as well. That all said, chances of rain with this activity are only around 10 percent at best. Any convection that develops will be very CAPE limited given drier SFC conditions and warm mid level temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The heat gets cranked up a little more on Thursday and and heat advisory will likely be required for much of the Panhandles. The hottest readings are expected across the north-central Panhandles from just north of Amarillo to Borger, Dumas, Stratford, Perryton and Guymon and there is a 40-80% probability of seeing highs greater than 104 in those areas. The other area of higher temperatures with similar probabilities is in PDC and ESE from there to Wellington and south from there.

There have been some subtle changes in models handling of the H5 high center late this week that have implications of the forecast starting Thursday night. GFS, ECMWF, GEM and NAM all track the H5 center a bit further south as it retrogrades west and they agree on a little more aggressive west movement than indicated a few days ago. This isn't going to save us from the heat, but it opens the door for dirty ridge roller s/wvs to work from CO ESE across the region late Thu and Fri. Given this and strong H7 theta-e ridging associated with monsoon plume, the southern edge of scattered storms moving out of CO into KS are expected to impact the far NW Panhandles Thu evening. There actually is some modest wind shear noted in models, but mid level temperatures are extremely warm (-2 to -3 deg C). This will limit CAPE, but certainly not DCAPE which will be very high. This suggests strong wind gusts, lightning and heavy downpours are the thunderstorms hazards of concern with this activity.

6Z models started a trend of bringing the hybrid outflow/frontal boundary associated with this activity much further south and initiate storms along that boundary anywhere from the central Panhandles to the far southern Panhandles late Friday afternoon. This of course will bring uncertainty to temperature forecast as well on Friday, but it will get plenty hot before storms fire late in the afternoon. For not POPs are limited to 20 percent mainly due to uncertainties wrt boundary location, but these may increase into the SCT category once boundary position is better known.

After retrograding west, the high is forecast to build east again over the NRN Panhandles and/or SW KS over the weekend. This suggest more heat and less storm chances heading into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

No aviation concerns the next 24-30 hours. VFR will prevail and chances of afternoon/evening storms remains extremely low at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010- 013>015-018>020-317.

Heat Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.