textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this morning and again for this afternoon with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds.

-Thunderstorm chances, with a severe potential, will continue through the work week.

-The coming weekend is looking to be hot with triple digit temperatures across the combined Panhandles Sat through Mon.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Today through Wednesday the southern plains remains between a low pressure weather system to the north and a high pressure weather system to the south. This will continue to keep a northwest flow that is slowly becoming a west to east flow across the panhandles. This in turn allows for small scale weather system passing through that flow to impact the panhandles each day.

This morning the low level jet is bringing in low moisture across the panhandles that is leading to the cloudy skies. Normally a cloudy night would be indicative of more stable conditions but that is not the case for today. For above this cloud layer conditions are very unstable across the panhandles. The environment has CAPE values range from 2000 to 3500 J/Kg with shear of 20 to 40 kt. What is laking is a trigger mechanism to start thunderstorms that can fully utilize this environment. So this will leave much of the early morning with calm weather. This changes come the mid morning as we have a small scale weather system that is likely to pass across the northern and eastern portions of the panhandles. This system has a low to medium chance of sparking off rain showers and thunderstorms when it passes through. With the environment as unstable as it is there is a further low chance for these storms to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Further more the moisture is likely to pool along this system allowing for the storms to produce torrential rainfall. This introduces a low chance for these storms to cause flash flooding. This is most likely to occur in areas that see more than one storms as it is unlikely for any single storm to have enough residence time to cause flash flooding by itself. The storm motion will most likely be to the southeast with the storms either departing or ceasing by the late morning hours.

The bank of low clouds will most likely dissipate by the late morning hours of today. This will allow for ample heating to occur across the panhandles through the day increasing the unstable conditions. Once again all that is needed is a trigger mechanism to get thunderstorms going in the first place. There is a low chance for the panhandles to get this forcing in the afternoon through either the setting up of a weak dry line or through outflows from the morning convection. The dryline would materialize from a push of drier air carried in by breezy southwest winds. These are most likely to set up in the central panhandles with a lesser chance for the western and eastern panhandles. The environment is such that 3000 to 5000 J/Kg of CAPE and with 20 to 40 kt of shear. This will allow for organized updrafts that can turn into supercell with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. If this round of thunderstorms formed it would likely persist until the evening hours. Still this round is the least certain as the trigger mechanism have to setup and enough moisture then has to concentrate upon them to get the storms going. The safer bet remain no thunderstorms for the afternoon, it just if they occur they can be powerful. A further consequence of the southerly to southwesterly winds today is that it will bring in hotter air that will cause the highs to creep back into the 100s for the hotter areas.

It is more likely for storms to occur tonight into Wednesday morning with the arrival of a small scale weather system. This would provide the necessary forcing needed to get thunderstorms going when it passes through. Overall the environment is likely to have weakened by the time this system passes through with a more modest 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of CAPE with shear of 20 to 40 kt. This will still allow for a low chance of severe thunderstorms with the main threat being large hail and damaging winds. These storms will likely persist through the mid morning hours before the storms either depart of dissipate. This will then most likely leave calmer weather conditions across the panhandles the remainder of Wednesday morning and much of the afternoon. It wont be until the evening that another small scale weather system pushes across the area. This system has a low to medium chance of bringing in thunderstorms from New Mexico during its passage. The environment is such that there is a low chance for these storms to be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Thursday and Friday the panhandles has a high chance of remaining under a west to east flow inbetween the high pressure system to the south and a deepening low pressure to the northwest. Initially this will most likely allow for further weather systems to pass through the area bringing further rain showers and thunderstorms. However the moisture feed will likely be degrading during this time which will cause a gradually downtrend in the rain showers and thunderstorms.

Then going into the weekend the high pressure and the low pressure seem likely to reposition. This would see the high pressure build in strength and move to the east of the panhandles. While this happens the low pressure will deepen and remain mainly to the northwest of the panhandles. This would lead to a more southwesterly flow that would bring dry and hot conditions to the panhandles for the weekend. There is already hints that this setup wont last as the low pressure system pushes east increasing the chances that cooler and stormier weather return to the panhandles during next work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions last until a bank of low clouds develop across the panhandles. This will lead to MVFR to even IFR conditions until the clouds lift and scatter out during the later morning hours. Thunderstorms are forecasted to pass across mainly the northeastern panhandles this morning. These have better chances of impacting KGUY and thus are reflected in this TAF. Another round of thunderstorms can impact the panhandles this afternoon with KAMA and KGUY having them reflected within the TAFs. KDHT has a lesser chance for any thunderstorms today so none are currently reflected within the TAF. There is a low chance for either round of thunderstorms to become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Of the two rounds the afternoon round will most likely have the more powerful storms.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.