textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday through Thursday, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the worst fire weather days. - A High Wind Watch has been issued for most of the combined Panhandles for Tuesday with wind gusts around 60 mph possible.

- Along with high winds on Tuesday, areas of blowing dust also possible with sudden reduced visibilities at times.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tomorrow night) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A nice afternoon in store as the latest 18Z satellite obs shows the last patch of low clouds and patchy fog in the northeastern Panhandles finally dissipating. Temperatures as of the latest 18Z obs showing many areas well into the 60s across the Panhandles as we close out the weekend with light southerly winds and mostly clear skies.

Winds will then begin to pick up tomorrow across the Panhandles as H500 height gradient begins to become more steep well out ahead of the main H500 trough axis just off the northern California coast. With downslope southwest surface winds off the NM high terrain, low RH values will be present by tomorrow afternoon, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible; in combination with the breezy SW winds. If the main H850 thermal ridge continues to show strengthening over the central and western combined Panhandles, could even see some critical fire weather conditions for tomorrow. Along with the southwest surface winds, good LL H850 WAA will result in high temperatures for tomorrow topping out between the upper 70s to lower 80s, where some local climate sites may tie or exceed record high temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Latest 15/12Z model and numerical guidance continues to show a low amplitude sinusoidal trough over the western CONUS that will slow expand into the central CONUS over the next few days. As it does so, the main southern stream H250 jet that is helping to expand this synoptic pattern will be parked right over the Panhandles with the main jet streak displaced just to the northwest. So in terms of weather conditions, this will result in prolonged windy and dry conditions across the Panhandles throughout the long term forecast period. In particular for Tuesday, as the main H500 trough axis deepens over southern Nevada, downstream of the main axis, rapid height falls will result in strong downward momentum aloft. Aided by a Pacific front by Tuesday afternoon, damaging wind gusts approaching or even exceeding 60 mph will be possible for most of the Panhandles where a current High Wind Watch is in effect. Temperatures throughout the long term forecast period will remain above average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the south and southwest at 5-15 kts with brief higher gusts at times. Skies will remain mostly clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be expected throughout the coming work week from Monday through Friday. Starting Monday, a notable LLTR will advect north from the Mexican Plateau and if the 20 ft winds climb to higher values above 20-25 mph, we could even see critical fire weather conditions for portions of the western and central Panhandles with RH values dropping as low as 9 percent and max RFTI values as of the current forecast as high as 3.

Tuesday, in-conjunction with our current High Wind Watch, will feature critical fire weather conditions with max RFTI values 5 to 7 and min RH values as low as 13 percent. Max 20 ft winds of 30-40 mph with gusts over 60 mph is possible. Elevated and critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through Friday with windy conditions at times, along with low RH values and max RFTI values peaking between 5 to 7 each day.

Side note to mention that each overnight period starting Monday night through Wednesday night, RH recovery will be quite poor. This will unfortunately contribute to ongoing fire weather conditions that could linger through each of the overnight period. Some model data shows values below 50 percent overall throughout the overnight period, with some night not even above 40 percent.

Dry fuels are abundant across the majority of the Panahndles.ERC percentile values will range from 55th to 70th percentile in the far NW Panhandles to values of 70th to 90th percentile for the remainder of the Panhandles.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003.