textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 901 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the TX Panhandle, especially for the SW TX Panhandle today.

- Low chance for a few strong or severe thunderstorm tonight into Wednesday morning for the eastern Panhandles.

- Increasing potential for more of the combined Panhandles to see showers and thunderstorms with some severe on Thursday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions can return on Friday with the return of drier air.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A small scale weather system is currently moving across the mid to southern plains and impacting the panhandles. The cold front associated with this system has slowed down and is currently slowly passing across the TX panhandle. This delay in the frontal passage is opening a small window where drier and warmer conditions can linger in the southern TX panhandle. The dry conditions is causing some concern for elevated fire weather conditions across much of the southern TX panhandle. In Deaf Smith and Oldham Counties the winds are expected to be breezy which in turn increases the fire weather concern to low end critical fire weather conditions. With the delay in the cold front the southern TX panhandle has a real chance to reach the lower 80s for high temperatures. This put the daily record high for Amarillo under threat since it is 80 degree and the most likely high for Amarillo is higher than that. The cold front will most likely complete the passage across the remaining TX panhandles during the earlier afternoon. The passage of the front will bring an end to any of the fire weather concerns for the panhandles as it bring in moisture. This moisture will then have a high chance of bringing cloudier skies for this evening and into the overnight hours.

Tonight through Wednesday morning the axis of the upper level weather system passes across the panhandles. This will provide for unstable conditions above the low level cloud bank. As this occur mid level moisture streams across mainly the eastern combined panhandles. The combination of these two factors will allow for a low chance of higher based rain showers and thunderstorms to form off the elevated moisture. The vertical profile in the eastern panhandles during the overnight hours show limited amounts of speed shear across a deep but relatively skinny CAPE. These conditions are meager but will allow for at least a very low chance for the development of severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary threat. These storms will not linger for to long in the panhandles as the upper level system continues to move eastward. The last of any lingering rain showers or thunderstorms departing by the mid morning hours of Wednesday. This will leave the rest of Wednesday as a relatively calm and cooler day with only a very low chance for a sprinkle to light rain shower mainly in the southern most TX panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Thursday a weather system deepens over the intermountain west before ejecting eastward into the southern plains. As it is doing so a portion of the weather system will most likely split into a closed low off the west coast of Baja California. As for the portion of the weather system that impacts the panhandles it is showing signs of taking a slightly negative tilt. This will help to draw up moisture across the panhandles while enhancing the dynamics of the weather system itself. The weather system is already showing favorable signs of high shear across a large depth of the vertical profile with CAPE values of 1-2k. The moisture fetch appears to favor moving across the central and eastern panhandles while a dry line sets up in the far western panhandles. The dry line is already indicating that it will pick up easterly motion during the afternoon and surge eastward. So what all that fancy talk is boiling down to is that Thursday is setting up to be a favorable day for formation of thunderstorms that can become severe. This is looking similar to a classic dry line day where thunderstorms form off the surging dryline during the afternoon hours and then spin to become supercells from the high shear of the weather system. As these storms move east the mode would more likely than not shift to that of a squall line and the moisture increases allowing more storm formation. Such storms will be capable of producing all hazards of damaging winds, large hail, and tornados. With all that being said there is already an obvious failure mode for this event from the moisture itself. This moisture will most likely form a cloud bank that will prevent heating. So the cloud bank will need to either thin or dissipate for sufficient heating to occur otherwise the thunderstorms will not form. So for now the chances of this event occurring are still regarded as low to moderate as it is uncertain whether the cloud cover will prevent the severe weather.

Going into Friday the weather system will move eastward putting the panhandles firmly in the dry slot. This will lead to far drier conditions across the whole of the panhandles. These dry conditions will have a high chance of being coupled with breezy to even windy conditions. The combination of these factors makes it highly likely that the panhandles will see critical fire weather conditions. The big questions are just how strong the winds will be and what rainfall did the panhandles receive on Thursday. The stronger the winds the higher the fire weather conditions and there is already building trend for stronger winds on Friday with newer model runs. Any moisture we receive on Thursday will lower fire weather concerns but given the uncertain nature of the panhandles even receiving rain we cannot rely on this being a failure mode for this fire weather event. So for now Friday has a high chance of being a critical fire weather day with building confidence that it will be even worse than the current forecast.

For Saturday through Monday the weather pattern for the panhandles becomes a bit more neutral as the closed low off the west coast of Baja California stabilizes the pattern. This will most likely lead to a period of calmer weather with only a very low chance for daily rain showers in the southern TX panhandles.

Towards mid week there is a building chance that the low pressure system will get picked up in the flow and move eastward towards then across the southern plains. This makes it more likely than not that the mid week portions of next week will see active and wet weather.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A cold front is passing across the panhandles today. KAMA and KDHT are currently VFR and will remain so through the evening. KGUY is underneath a low level cloud deck of MVFR conditions that is proving resilient and will most likely not dissipate until the earlier afternoon hours. The low level cloud bank will most likely expand tonight leading to renewed MVFR to IFR conditions and KGUY and KAMA. KDHT has a very low chance for the bank to expand far enough west to impact it, so for now the TAF doesn't reflect the cloud bank. The low level cloud bank will then most likely dissipate late on Wednesday morning. There is a low chance for high based overnight rain showers and thunderstorms mainly of the eastern panhandles. The chance of these impacting any terminal are to low to be reflected within the current TAFs. Do note that a severe thunderstorm or two can form overnight with large hail being the primary threat.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.