textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions with breezy winds possible for the southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.

- Low chances for light rain showers or sprinkles this afternoon into the evening.

- Warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday/Wednesday before a pattern change may lead to more active weather towards the later half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A weak front is slowly advancing over the Panhandles from the northwest, in tandem with a subtle shortwave trough passing across the region. This front will have little to no impact on our temperatures today, with highs topping out in the 60s to low 70s similarly to New Year's Day. Today's upper level pattern will be characterized by ridging to our west, setting up northwest flow that will usher another shortwave and attendant sfc low to the region by later this evening. Breezy winds will ensue this afternoon across the west-southwest TX Panhandle, sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph (10-20% chance for rogue gusts over 40 mph).

As energy from the upper disturbance traverses atop the Panhandles, meager 700mb theta-e advection may be just enough to generate an area of light sprinkles/showers moving from the northwest to the southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. Despite improved mid-level moisture, sfc moisture is progged to be lacking, with dew pts likely in the upper 20s to low 30s. This may inhibit accumulating rainfall and rather promote virga instead, but there are still 15-30% probabilities for a few lucky locations to receive a few hundredths of measurable rain. Another thing to keep an eye on would be potential for a few stronger wind gusts from these showers due to inverted-v profiles being depicted in forecast soundings, with support from a few CAMs as well. Otherwise, expect another weak front to trail in behind the sfc low Friday night, leading to a gorgeous and sunny Saturday with highs in the 60s.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Models show a return to upper level ridging being highly favored starting next week, spelling another winter warm stretch for the forecast area. Widespread highs in the 70s look likely Sunday and Monday, with breezy west-southwest winds to boot. Ridging will be de- amplified and displaced through the rest of the week as a stronger low takes shape off the Pacific coast, helping us return to slightly cooler weather, albeit still well above average. There is an increasing contingency of long range ensembles bringing that low within the vicinity of the Panhandles by midweek, and could have some low-end potential to provide moisture to portions of the area if it tracks favorably (15-25% POPs). Models diverge beyond this system, but primarily suggest stout southwest flow aloft characterizing the synoptic pattern to end next week. Temperature trends are leaning towards cooler outcomes by then, generally returning us to near average conditions for early-mid January.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail with WNW winds around 10 to 15 kt, eventually becoming northerly. There is a chance for some light shower activity at KDHT after 21Z. However, the chance for impacts outside of some gusty and erratic winds is low at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.