textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Low storm chances could return as early as Tuesday night into Wednesday, but more likely later this week into the weekend.

- High temperatures this week remain slightly below seasonal averages in the 80s to mid 90s.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

In the wake of an eventful Sunday in the Amarillo area, the work week is favored to hold much quieter weather across the Panhandles. A large dome of high pressure remains situated to our north, placing us under the relatively rare pattern of northeast flow aloft. As a result, cooling 850mb temps will support below average highs today and tomorrow, only topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s. 10 to 15 mph south-southeast surface winds will also serve to keep decent low- level moisture in the area with 50s & 60s dew points. Negative 700mb theta-e advection to much of the region will make storms significantly harder to come by today and tomorrow, as this synoptic pattern is generally not conducive for shower/storm development. No major disturbances will arrive within the flow, although Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, we could see low potential for spotty activity across the east as better mid-level moisture returns (10-20% POPs). Instability and shear are forecast to be quite weak, so severe storms are not expected at this time.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Progressing through the rest of the week, global models continue to depict the elongated dome of 500mb high pressure wobbling across the heart of the central CONUS, maintaining east-northeast flow aloft atop our region of the High Plains. This setup will promote mostly mild/warm temperatures until the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. As previously alluded too, Wednesday could have low storm chances, but best potential likely holds off till later in the week.

Ensemble guidance now shows the ridge degrading and becoming further displaced to our east late week into this weekend, allowing better disturbances to reach the Panhandles. With temperatures creeping closer to the triple digits into next week, these subtle systems could have just enough energy to spark storms with daytime heating as deep layer moisture improves. Model blended data places a smattering of 10-20% POPs in the area during this time frame, which is fair given the fact that activity is likely to be very hit or miss and is still several days away. Despite low probabilities, individual ensemble members provide some hope for spotty showers and storms any given day throughout the long term, but are not optimistic regarding amounts, especially for those awaiting widespread beneficial rainfall.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south-southeast at 5-15 kts, perhaps going light and variable overnight into Tuesday morning.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.