textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1151 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- A system expected to arrive this afternoon bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms clear through Saturday evening.

- Potential is present for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, with best chances in the Southeastern Panhandles.

- Dry and windy conditions continue to trend for next Tuesday and Wednesday, which could lead to critical fire weather.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Model agreement continues to push for an approaching upper-level trough to arrive this afternoon bring with with it widespread chances of showers for the Panhandles. However, the overall trend still has the incoming trough and associated system pushing more and more south of the Panhandles. This placement has unfortunately kept much of the Panhandles under the expected dry air pocket of this system, which has seen rain totals on the initial push for the system become little to nothing. As it stands, the majority of the Panhandles is looking at a tenth of an inch of rain or less over these next 24 hours. Instead, these area may have to wait for the overnight and Saturday when most models see a secondary wave aid in pushing the wraparound moisture over the area. Still these amounts will be limited with most models only seeing a couple of tenths over the next 48 hours.

In the southeast; however, the latest runs from the HRRR have been a little more optimistic in our rain totals with expectations to see the area at least clipped by the main band of precipitation. If this path can hold, then it would not be impossible to see a few location near the half inch mark by Sunday. What may further aid in these areas, however, is the potential to see isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon that help produce locally higher rain rates and amounts. As it stands, present CAMs are not seeing too much in the form of instability with MU CAPE barley nearing 1000 J/kg, However, wind shear will be present with effective bulk shear in some areas upwards of 30 to 40kts. This combination does prompt some concern for strong to severe storms across our Southeastern Panhandles, but confidence still remain on the lower end. As for Saturday, severe potential is much lower as both CAPE and wind shear look depleted behind the system.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Moving into Sunday, model agreement sees the full exit of the upper-level trough in favor of a building ridge. This ridge will see the Panhandles once again dry out with afternoon highs holding in the mid to upper 60s. This ridge looks to hold over the Panhandles Monday; however, just to our west a new upper-level trough will be looking to build with expectations to move in land over the course that night. This building trough will aid in forcing the upper-level jet back over the Panhandles with expectation to hold over the top of the area through the mid-week. This jet looks to peak over the Panhandles Tuesday with approach of the trough and its associated front as latest models suggest 500mb winds upward of 80kt with 700mb winds peaking at 50kt. With upper-level support this strong, concerns are increasing for strong winds at the surface for Tuesday afternoon with chances of gusts greater than 50 mph around 30 to 50% in the Western Panhandles. Even more concerning is the increase potential for critical fire weather as multiple models expect conditions to remain very dry both ahead and behind this system. One factor that may limit these winds and dry weather is the expected cloud cover that is to follow this system. However, the presence of the front may make it a mute point. Regardless, this pattern looks to hold once again behind the front Wednesday, albeit with slightly weaker support in the mid-levels of the atmosphere but much even drier conditions. Otherwise, look for temperatures to be back on the rise for Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the 70s to near 80s. Meanwhile, Wednesday will see a slight cool of thanks to the front, but still look to be in 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Cloud cover is expected to keep building overnight as the approaching system keep inching closer to the Panhandles. As it stands, latest CAMs put some of the first hints at showers around the noon time with no impact to terminals expected until around the late afternoon to early evening. Current indications supports mostly light rain for the terminals. However, potential is present for thunderstorm during afternoon and evening, especially around KAMA where conditions are slightly more favorable. Otherwise, look for off and on shower to remain possible through Friday night with expectations to see conditions tapper off Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Despite some chances for precipitation this evening into Saturday, early to mid next week will need to be watched closely. There is increasing potential for strong wind on Tuesday, that will combine with RH values less then 20%. The details are a bit fuzzy as possible cloud cover and any unexpected additional rainfall may aid in mitigating these concerns. However, parts of the Southern Great Plains may potentially see a outbreak type set- up across the region for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. See the long term discussion for additional details.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.