textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday across the Panhandles.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Thunderstorms have moved out of the Panhandles this evening; expecting a dry night across the Panhandles. The dryline likely largely stay in place across the central combined Panhandles, although perhaps it could begin to slightly push east overnight.

An upper-level trough will be positioned over the Intermountain West to begin Friday with a surface low in western Kansas. We will begin to see a jet streak intensify over the Southern and Central High Plains throughout the day, and with a favorable positioning of the right entrance region of the jet streak, the surface low will strengthen as it pushes east-northeast. The dryline will push eastward through the morning and it should exit the CWA by the early afternoon hours. We should see a cold front move in from the north at around the same time, but the latest hints from CAMs suggest that the front will stall, or perhaps even retreat, through much of the afternoon. Ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline will be dry, breezy, and warm conditions leading to widespread critical fire weather conditions. The strongest winds are expected to be in the northern combined Panhandles where sustained winds between 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with a 20-50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph. There is around a 10-20% chance for a wind gust up to 60 mph in the northwestern combined Panhandles.

The cold front will begin to move south once again later in the afternoon which will bring about a wind shift from southwesterly/westerly to northerly. Winds will not be as strong behind the front, but will still be more on the breezy side through the night.

With all that said, there are some nuances with the critical fire weather for Friday. For more information on that, please see the "fire weather" section below.

Winds will stay a little more on the breezy side through Saturday morning before winds weaken through the afternoon. High temperatures behind the front will be in the 50s to low-60s across the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

By Sunday, operational and ensemble models generally agree that there will be a closed or cut-off trough over Baja California as the Pacific jet pushes into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will be fairly stagnant into Monday, resulting in a quick warming trend as highs venture into the 70s on Sunday and widespread 80s on Monday. The trough is favored to begin to move eastward Tuesday and beyond, and there are some hints that Pacific and Gulf moisture could return toward the middle of next week, but lots of uncertainty exists regarding that potential. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures are favored to continue through next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

IFR conditions to start at KAMA due to low cigs with VFR conditions starting at KDHT/KGUY for the 12Z TAF period. VFR conditions should return at all sites by 14-15Z as low cigs should dissipate by then. Winds will be out of the southwest at 20-30 kts with higher gusts of 40-45 kts at times. Winds will then shift to northerly between 00-04Z Saturday and be at values of 10-20 kts throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A dryline will be set up tonight across the central Panhandles tonight, and it may slightly shift east overnight. Poor RH recovery (25-50%) is expected tonight behind the dryline in the western combined Panhandles. The dryline will push east through the morning and should clear the Panhandles by the very early afternoon hours, ushering in dry, breezy, and warm conditions. This will lead to widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the area. The strongest winds will be in the northern combined Panhandles where gusts up to 50 mph are favored. However, there is a 20-50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph. In the northwestern combined Panhandles there is a 10-20% chance for gusts to reach up to 60 mph.

With all that said, there are some nuances to this fire weather forecast. The windward side of a low-level thermal ridge is located in the central and portions of the eastern combined Panhandles which typically enhances critical fire weather conditions. However, we are excellent RH recovery overnight east of the dryline which is expected to include that exact same area and the critically dry air may not reach this area until the late morning or early afternoon hours. Therefore, there is uncertainty as to how receptive the fuels will be in the area given the excellent overnight recovery that occurred Wednesday night and is expected to occur tonight. This lowers confidence in critical fire weather conditions across the eastern combined Panhandles.

A cold front will move through the Panhandles from the north in the late afternoon hours and into the evening. Winds will be out of the north behind the front with decent RH recovery, but the winds may be slightly on the breezy side still.

Expecting critical fire weather conditions across the western and central combined Panhandles on Friday with higher-end critical fire weather conditions across the western and central Texas Panhandle.

Vanden Bosch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>004-006>009-011>014-016>019-317.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001-002.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ001-002.