textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

-Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening, mainly across the central to eastern Panhandles. Overnight thunderstorms may be possible in the east leading to a flood threat from rain received this morning. -Thunderstorm chances, with a severe potential, will continue through the work week.

-The coming weekend is looking to be hot with triple digit temperatures across the combined Panhandles Sat through Mon.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The combined Panhandles continue to see positive H7 theta-e advection, with abundant moisture in play for thunderstorms. Also, Tds here in Amarillo are currently sitting around 69 with a south wind at the time of this writing. Also, at this time the eastern combined Panhandles continue to see thunderstorms dropping several inches of rain. These storms in the northeast are expected to continue through maybe noon, with a potential break in storms early this afternoon. Depending on the next upper level shortwave storms could get going again as early as 3 pm but likely to start around 4-5PM and last through maybe 10 PM. Environmental conditions suggest that there is a potential for much of the combined Panhandles to see severe storms this evening. That doesn't mean everyone will but the potential is there if a storm forms nearby. However, CAMs are largely locking onto the central Panhandles with Amarillo potentially in play as well. Storm mode is expected to be somewhat scattered with isolated supercells possible, mainly between Amarillo to Lipscomb. The extent of coverage northwest and southeast of this line is a bit in question.

The northeast combined Panhandles where the storms have been this morning continue to have around 3000-4000 J/Kg of MUCAPE. Going into this afternoon some of the northeast combined Panhandles may be able to hang onto this amount of instability while further west MUCAPE values may be closer to 2000-3000 J/Kg. Bulk shear is progged be around 35 to 55 kts this afternoon/evening as well. If it were spring and not summer there would be no problem getting baseball size hail maybe larger with storms. However, with it being summer, H5 temperatures are on the warm side between -5 and -8 degrees C. Not favorable for sig hail. Would not rule out some hail up to ping pong size with well organized supercells though. Also, as the afternoon comes upon us, drier Tds are expected to move in from the west, with Amarillo dropping from 70 to near 57 adding to an increased chance in damaging straight line winds with DCAPE increasing to 1500 J/Kg or higher. Even further east as it warms up, the strong storms could still produce straight line winds as temperatures warm. Tornados are not expected to be favorable. However, if conditions come together right with any outflow boundaries interacting with an updraft of a supercell, cannot rule out a brief tornado today.

Additional thunderstorms in the northeastern combined Panhandles will be something to watch for later in the overnight period once again. While the severe potential is expected to drop off during the overnight, especially after the atmosphere gets worked over today, continued concerns for flooding will be present. Many areas between Beaver and Lipscomb county have already received 4"-5" as of this writing.

With the nature of the combined Panhandles sitting under the northeastern fringe of a ridge, thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow once again. Severe storms cannot be ruled out for tomorrow as well. This time, the highest instability will be in the western combined Panhandles with the east potentially seeing less MUCAPE. Depending on which model is looked at though. However, storms do look to move in from NM and the higher terrain and trek eastward primarily in the evening to overnight hours. Damaging wind is likely going to be the main threat as far as severe goes, due to the nature of the summer season and slightly less instability than what is seen today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Thursday, perturbations in the ridge, especially later in the day, may spark additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Abundant moisture is expected, along with the potential for H5 temperatures to cool a bit closer to -10 degrees C. This could be a decent shot at severe storms later in the day. Thats if an early morning shortwave doesn't cause early storms and stabilize the atmosphere going into the evening.

Warm temperatures continue Thu and Fri, with Friday night being the last chance at 20 to 30 PoPs for a while. The upper level ridge is progged to build slightly, as a surface trough moves over the area brining in lower Tds. This surface trough will also contribute to a warming southwest wind around 20 gust 30 mph going into Sat. This is expected to bring about widespread hot temperatures in the triple digits, Sat thru Mon. For Sat, models may be slightly over done, as moisture between now and then may play a role in warming potential. Also the extent of a surface trough may impact warming as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Abundant moisture has kept some MVFR CIGs around for KAMA and KGUY this morning. Conditions are just now starting to improve to VFR where they should mostly stay. The caveat will be the potential for thunderstorms to develop later after 21Z for KAMA maybe even KGUY. KAMA could even be under a severe threat later today as well. Expect south winds mainly around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts outside of any thunder influence.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.