textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Concerns are increasing for a multi-day significant rain event with potential high end flash flooding impacts beginning on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today, an upper level ridge is expected to be centered over the Southern Plains and the FA leading to afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Precipitation chances are not expected to pick up until tomorrow night when an upper level low pressure deepens over the San Fran Bay area, and the upper level ridge shifts east putting the FA under southwest flow aloft. The approaching trough will also bring forth some slightly cooler afternoon highs Monday, more in the mid 80s. Also, Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific is expected to make landfall on the Baja Peninsula which will help feed sufficient atmospheric moisture into the southwest flow aloft, transporting additional moisture aloft into NM and into the Panhandles late overnight tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

All eyes are on the next progged upper level trough coming across the Desert Southwest and combining with what will become tropical depression Polo late Monday night into Wednesday night. This particular set-up, is expected to lead to a flash flood potential to the combined Panhandles. The central to western combined Panhandles currently have at least a 40% probability to see flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point, between 7 am Tuesday and 7 am Wednesday. Rivers and creeks will need to be watched closely as well with the recent rainfall seen over the past few days with more to come. NBM PoPs are currently sitting between 80 and 95 percent during this 24 hour period. Slightly higher than the previous NBM run of 70 to 85 PoPs. NBM Probs for at least 2 inches are sitting around 20 to 50 percent. However, there are some outliers that would suggest that some localized areas in the Panhandles could potentially see 4-8 inches with this system.

Depending on when and if the low pressure system coming from the west stalls out, rain along with a flooding potential could last well into Thursday morning. Besides the rain, cloud cover is expected to stay along with cooler H85 leading to afternoon highs in the 70s to maybe lower 80s Tue through Fri. Highs in the lower to mid 80s may return until next Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue over the forecast period. Winds will remain under 10kts but switch from westerly to easterly.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.