textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Low chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Tomorrow, higher chances for thunderstorm is forecast, some of which could be severe.

Below normal temperatures persist today and tomorrow. Much hotter temperatures are still expected on Wednesday. High probabilities hold for widespread 100s.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Low to medium rain chances coupled with below average temperatures continue to be the main highlights of the short term period. Northerly winds and high-end low to mid level theta-e values prevail today and allow the combination of low clouds and spotty showers to continue through the early afternoon. Cloud coverage will eventually disperse later this afternoon and surface winds will steadily veer from northeast to east before ultimately becoming light and variable tonight. The weak shower activity from this morning will also cease in the next couple of hours, that is if precipitation is still making it to the ground as we have not received any confirmation with METAR data. Highs today still may not escape the 60s and 70s due to how long we have mitigated day time heating. Later this evening, convection off the high terrain in New Mexico will transition into the western Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms that hold together in our area will likely not be severe. Most guidance this morning suggests that storms will struggle to sustain themselves due to lingering surface inhibition in our area. Still, if storms are able to lift above the cap tonight, they will have a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE to work with and permit another small round of convection for the Texas Panhandle tonight. While moisture content remains high over the CWA tonight, cloud coverage will increase once more and low level clouds are expected to be spread out across the region.

Tomorrow, 12Z guidance, including the NBM, have raised high temperatures into the 80s across the combined Panhandle due to a quicker erosion of cloud cover forecast in the morning hours. Temperatures will still be below average for this time of year, with highs perhaps only reaching the mid 80s. Monday afternoon, another surface trough will eject eastward out of New Mexico and promote thunderstorms in the western and central combined Panhandles. Thunderstorm coverage is still fairly uncertain amongst CAMs as some suggest only a few isolated storms will make it, while others suggest thunderstorms will be more scattered across the region. Instability and effective shear will be sufficient enough for storms to become severe. Inverted Vs and high LCLs from forecast soundings suggest that damaging winds will be the primary hazard for severe storms. However, a large hail threat may also be present for storms than remain more isolated with rotating updrafts. Soundings suggest that some discrete convection is possible mainly across our northern zones, while the storm mode may be more clustered and multicellular to the south. Convective activity will continue to push eastward Monday night and eventually dissipate by midnight or sooner.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

With broad scale troughing in the eastern US and an eventual return to zonal flow across the CONUS, we look to keep a fairly active weather pattern through much of the extended. A return to warmth is expected Tuesday, with highs back in the 90s for the CWA. By Wednesday, strong warm air advection and clear skies will result in triple digits surging into the region. Global models have consistently shown widespread 100s with some locations possibly exceeding 105 degrees. Heat products looks to become necessary in the coming days if trends hold.

A strong cold front Wednesday night will allow temperatures on Thursday to fall back into the 80s. Repeat shortwaves as the H500 pattern becomes more zonal should let temperatures be near or slightly above average for the rest of the extended. Though, some models are showing signs that WAA will stay strong despite frontal passages, and we could be back in the 100s by the weekend.

Chances for precipitation remain active each day of the week except Wednesday. The moisture plume looks to shift eastward with time, so PoPs are highest in our eastern zones for the rest of this week and the weekend.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MVFR ceilings still linger over KAMA this afternoon, but are expected to become VFR by 19Z. There's a chance ceilings could stay OVC and MVFR beyond 19Z, but they should not hold past 20Z. Low clouds may return to the FA Monday morning. MVFR conditions may be present at KAMA and KDHT between 12Z to 17Z if trends hold. Light winds continue at all sites for the next 24 hours.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.