textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Friday across the central and western Panhandles.

- Gusty winds are forecast across the western Texas Panhandle on Friday afternoon and a Wind Advisory is in effect given that potential.

- After a brief break from fire weather conditions over the weekend, said conditions are likely to return early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Temperatures to start the day will be cooler than we have seen for around a week or so, with widespread lows below freezing in the 20s to mid teens. Temperatures during the day should quickly rise, especially for the central and west, as H850 WAA moves in aided by southerly low level winds. Speaking of winds, another leeside surface low pressure system should develop off of the higher terrain to the west and should be centered across southeastern Colorado by Friday evening. This feature will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the central and west and lead to another day of breezy to gusty winds south to west winds. Forecast soundings indicate the top of the boundary layer may feature wind speeds upwards of 50 to 60 mph. With that being said, would not be surprised to see some gusts upwards of 50 to 55 mph during the afternoon time frame across the far west. With winds shifting out of the west, much drier air will move in which will lead to critical fire weather once again.

Another thing to watch out for will be the potential for very light precip to develop on Friday afternoon into the early evening. The northwestern Panhandles have a slightly higher chance to see anything compared to the rest of the area. Even so, model soundings in the lower levels to the surface are very dry, so the most likely outcome appears to be virga if any showers move over the Panhandles. If any virga does form, that could lead to sporadic stronger wind gusts occurring beneath the evaporating moisture. Chances for any of that occurring are very low (15-20 percent or less) but it is something to keep an eye on across the northern half of the CWA.

Winds will decrease going into Friday night and a cold front will move across the region, switching winds to out of the north. The front will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air over the Panhandles so another morning of sub-freezing temperatures should be expected on Saturday morning. Saturday appears to be the coldest day of this 7 day forecast with highs reaching the lower 50s, which are slightly below average for mid February. North winds are forecast throughout the day, but should only be around 10-15 mph. Below freezing temperatures are forecast once again on Saturday night.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

By Sunday, H500 troughing will be off to the east of the forecast area with ridging developing across the west and extending all the way up to British Columbia and Alberta. This upper level ridge will remain in place for most of the extended forecast for next week. Sunday will be the start of slowly warming temperatures to start the new week with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A weak cold front will start to move over the Panhandles Sunday evening into Monday morning, bringing a bit more cooler air down the Plains. The cold air will quickly be mixed out by Monday afternoon though with highs in the 60s area wide. Temperatures will continue to increase throughout the week as the ridge remains in place. The warm and dry conditions will likely lead to at least elevated fire weather conditions during some of the days next week.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. The main focus will be the winds. While current winds are more light and variable, winds will pick up out of the south in the 15-25kt range and may gust as high as 40kts, KDHT may even gusts up to 45kts. Winds at KAMA and KDHT will also gradually turn westerly in the 18-00z time frame. KGUY will take a little more time for winds to turn west. Winds will lighten up and turn more northerly after 06z tonight.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Friday across the central and western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Winds will start to ramp up by late morning out of the south before switching to out of the southwest to west during the afternoon hours. Further east, winds will remain out of the south for most of the day and winds will be lighter than they will be further west. For the central and western Panhandles, winds will increase up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph during the afternoon. These winds will combine with relative humidity values dropping down into the lower teens to lead to another day of critical fire weather. The max Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values on Friday are forecast to be around 5 to 6 during the afternoon.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ001-006-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001-002.