textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through Wednesday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today, and there is a very low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm each day after.

- Widespread mid 90s to 100 degree temperatures are expected for today and Monday. 90s are expected to return through the rest of the week, and 100s are favored to return for the Holiday weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Mesoanalysis shows our synoptic pattern remains characterized by high pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our northwest, positioning southwest flow aloft over the region. This regime is helping a surface low deepen over eastern CO, placing a tighter pressure gradient over the Panhandles once again. It's even breezier today with southwest winds sustained 20-30 mph, gusting up to 40 mph in some locations. This breeze will thankfully help high temperatures of 100-108 feel more bearable, but not completely negate the effects of the dangerous heat.

Storm chances still exist this afternoon-evening when a weak disturbance within the flow is set to arrive. A mass influx of 700mb theta-e is being advected northward over the southeast TX Panhandle, with surface winds staying more out of the south-southeast across the eastern Panhandles. This is helping maintain 50s-60s dew points over the area. Better low level lift along a pseudo dryline/sfc trough will ensue, increasing the odds of convective development primarily across the far south-southeast TX Panhandle. HREF guidance places 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE along and east of this boundary, along with 20-25 kts of bulk shear. DCAPE values are not as stout as recent days, but inverted-v signatures can still be found in forecast soundings with steep low-level lapse rates, indicating the potential for severe damaging wind gusts with any storms. Some small hail could occur as well, but relatively warm 500mb temperatures will make it difficult to achieve severe hail sizes. In general, hi- res CAMs continue to depict spotty storm development across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, lifting north-northeast through the evening hours. It's worth noting though that weak forcing and some dry air entrainment may cause storms to struggle developing, much like we saw yesterday. Regardless, the likelihood of seeing appreciable rainfall is still rather low today, but still enough to support 15-30% POPs for these areas from about 4 PM to 12 AM. If any stronger storm can sustain itself where best moisture exists, locally heavier downpours may lead to very low flash flooding chances.

Monday will be very similar to today both from the synoptic and mesoscale perspective. The main difference will be closer proximity to stronger low pressure, which will help keep us a few degrees cooler while drawing better moisture to more of the region. Gusty south winds won't go away, and highs in the upper 90s to low 100s are still forecast across the region. Rather than being confined to the SE Panhandles, 50s to mid 60s dew points are slated to spread westward over the central Panhandles, where the dryline/sfc trough will act as a focal point for storm initiation in the afternoon to evening hours yet again. Hi-res data suggests storm coverage will be greater compared to previous days, with a southwest to northeast oriented line of storms popping up along the boundary. CAPE values will be comparable to today, but weaker deep layer shear could prevent storms from becoming more organized. However, forecast DCAPE values are over 2000 J/kg again, so anything that develops could easily produce strong/severe downburst winds. Locally heavy downpours have a better chance of occurring with tomorrow's convection, primarily along and east of the HWY 60 corridor (10-40% chance for >0.5" of rain).

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Our upper level pattern remains largely unchanged through Tue-Wed, aside from some very minor shifts in the location of high and low pressure. We are still projected to have hot and gusty conditions both days, with highs in the 90s and perhaps a few lingering triple digits, as well as continued potential for afternoon-evening thunderstorms across the central and eastern Panhandles. Medium range model guidance shows low pressure maintaining slightly closer proximity to the region these days, sending slightly better shortwave disturbances our way for convective development (20-30% POPs). Recent trends from the GFS as well as RRFS are becoming more aggressive towards storm potential these two days, so we may see these rain chances increase as we get closer. Surface winds of 15-30 mph out of the south with higher gusts will remain commonplace as well, but also serve to maintain decent moisture content across the region. Thursday through the upcoming weekend, global models and ensembles suggest that troughing to our northwest will lift into the northern Great Plains, leaving the southern High Plains with weaker flow aloft and higher pressure. As a result, temperatures returning to more widespread triple digits and lower storm chances are favored for the Panhandles, although some low, mentionable rain potential could return this weekend.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Gusty winds and VFR ceilings are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will stay out of the south at 15-25 kts gusting up to 35 kts. LLWS has been included at KAMA and KGUY over night as a strong low level jet ramps up atop the region.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ008-317.

OK...None.