textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- A low chance of showers and storms (<20 percent) for various portions of the Panhandles over the next few days.

- Heat impacts will begin to return in the coming days as the potential for widespread 100's across most of the Panhandles Thursday through Saturday.

- Temperatures to back off into the mid to upper 90s Sunday and Monday, with increased (but still low <25 percent) chances of showers and storms mainly across the northern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Now that the high has shifted further east over the Tennessee Valley, we are under a more southwest flow with some ample mid level moisture, but we're still capped around 600mb, with ample dry air aloft, and we may lack the surface moisture below 700 mb to overcome that cap. 18z sounding ML CIN is surprisingly on the weaker side that could support development, but still the dry air aloft could be the true limiting factor. Now, there could be a very low chance (~10%) that the southeast Panhandles overcome this cap and get a light shower to isolated storm this afternoon, so have added 10 pop to that area through about 7pm. But overall, expecting mostly flat Cu out there, but further west there is a weaker cap supporting showers and storms in easter NM that has a low chance (~20% chance) of making it to the western TX/OK Panhandle this evening.

Wednesday will be pretty close to a repeat, only the flow will be almost west southwest shifting that potential for storm development to actually be over the southwest to central Panhandle area. Very subtle difference tomorrow in that temperature dewpoint spread could allow for just enough instability to avoid the cap. Also, mid level dry air is not nearly as pronounced as it is today. So just a little more surface moisture, combined with very similar highs, maybe even a degree or two warmer, could be just enough to get those storms to occur. So have noted a slight chance of storms for the southwest and south central Panhandles. If showers/storms develop tomorrow the shear aloft will be very weak with maybe 500-750 J/kg of CAPE to work with, and so they will just form and collapse. DCAPE values could approach 2000 J/kg, and so strong wind gusts are certainly possible with any storms that occur. If confidence increases on these pop up storms, it may warrant a very localized outlook for strong damaging winds, but still confidence is on the low side at this time. Also will note that if we get these isolated to scattered showers, we need to be on the lookout for possible fire ignitions from lightning since the fuels are still very dry and despite the recent rains last week, we certainly could get grass fires from lightning.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Thursday is pretty similar to Wednesday so we could have a repeat of showers and storms if enough instability can be achieved and for this have those low (~20%) pops in the forecast. By Friday and into the weekend the temperatures will increase, but precip chances will decrease as the high gradually shifts to be more center over our area by Sunday. So confidence is not high enough to make changes to our extended grids. Will note that the high starts to very slowly break down Sunday and Monday, and that will bring those temperatures back into the 90s for the most part, with increased precipitation chances riding over the top of the ridge, which would be mainly the northern Panhandles.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds mainly out of the south in the 10 to 15kt range, with occasional gusts up to 25kts. Few to scattered mid and high clouds. But low confidence in any thunderstorms forming to have a PROB30 group. If a storm manages to threaten a TAF site, we'll deal with via amendments. Most favored site would be KDHT, and KAMA in second, but still not even high enough confidence for PROB30 at this time.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.