textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- A potent cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles Sunday, bringing in cooler than normal temperatures.

- ChanceS for rain and thunderstorms increase toward the middle of next week as a weather system could impact the area.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a ridge centered near Baja California with the Panhandles on the periphery of the ridge. This is leading to a stream of high clouds across the area which will persist through Thursday. We'll see temperatures warm into the low to mid-70s across the Panhandles by the mid-afternoon. Some global models are indicating the potential for some lobes of 700mb vorticity to move into the Panhandles later in the day which have a very low potential to produce some light rain showers. However, given the very dry low-levels, the expectation is that it would be virga with a minuscule chance to see some sprinkles. Therefore, will not be adding PoPs in to the forecast at this time.

Not much changes in the upper-level pattern on Friday; we'll see some subtle height rises across the Panhandles and temperatures will warm a few degrees from Thursday.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A Southwestern US ridge will remain in place over Baja California to begin Saturday as a clipper tracks across Canada within the polar jet. Looking at the warming trend to continue into Saturday as 850mb temperatures will warm above the 90th percentile across the Panhandles. This will lead to high temperatures in the mid-70s to low-80s despite the potential for some high clouds to move in later in the day.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned clipper will start to approach the Panhandles Saturday evening and begin moving into the Panhandles Saturday night into Sunday morning. There are significant timing differences among operational and ensemble members with respect to the cold front, but given that this has the potential to be a potent cold front, it seems prudent to lean toward the faster solutions. This carries over uncertainties into the high temperature forecast for Sunday. The latest NBM has dropped temperatures 5-10 degrees from the previous NBM run, and there is room to drop temperatures further. There is a 10-20% chance for highs to not even reach into the 40s in the northeastern combined Panhandles on Sunday.

Uncertainty continues into Monday as the GFS and ECMWF camps are split regarding how far south the cold front pushes, and in turn, how quickly warmer temperatures return. The operational GFS and its ensembles favor a cold front that digs into south Texas while the ECMWF only pushes it into northern Texas. Given the potency of this cold front, am leaning toward the GFS/GEFS solution of a cooler Monday. Indeed, the NBM seems to agree as it has temperatures more reflective of the GFS/GEFS rather than the ECMWF/EPS, and is trending cooler.

The weather pattern could be quite a bit more interesting as we get into the middle to later portion of the week. Operational and ensemble members are indicating the potential for a few troughs to dip into the Western US, and there are indications that low-level moisture could return into the Panhandles which could bring in some chances for rain, maybe even thunderstorms, to the area.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds are weakening this morning and will trend toward southerly this afternoon, then easterly later this evening.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.