textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

-Scattered storms this evening across the south and southeast Panhandles, with heavy rain being the main concern with any storm.

-Storms may return to the east on Saturday with heavy rain again being the main concern.

-Temperatures will trend much hotter as we head into Sunday through Wednesday, and maybe even Thursday, and we may need heat products on certain days.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Dewpoints in the east are well in the 60s to low 70s and subtle forcing from the system to the south tracking north towards the southeast Panhandle will support some afternoon to evening storms. First storm starting to go up in southern Armstrong County. Very high PWAT's of 1.2-1.6 in the southeast will support intense rain rates of 3-5" per hour with these storms, and 18z KAMA sounding shows a pocket of dry air in the 500-600mb layer that would support the potential for wet microbursts. As it stands shear is not that great in the southern Panhandles and is more favorable in the northwest, where that environment is more capped. Overall, 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and storms along and southeast of HWY60 and east of I-27 for this afternoon. Now the southeast Donley and Collingsworth Counties are more in that 40 to 60 percent chance as there's better forcing and surface dewpoints are much higher, so a better chance at reaching convective temperature, as well as any additional forcing from the wave that's tracking over our area this evening.

Upper low is taking more of an easterly track tonight and is expected to pull up over the eastern Panhandles tomorrow. This will continue to favor higher pops in the east and over into Oklahoma v.s. our area, but will not discount any wrap around moisture tomorrow. By tomorrow evening cluster of storms in the east is expected to become an MCV and eject northeast int northwestern OK and there might be some showers/storms on the back side for the Beaver and Lipscomb County area. Given the high PWAT's still in place, the main concern with the storms tomorrow would be the heavy rain rates.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Weak high pressure will build over the Panhandles on Sunday and bring much warmer temperatures, but overall stable and dry conditions. With 850mb temps in the 27-30C range on Sunday, we will likely see widespread 90s and maybe some areas close to 100. Now given recent moisture and a subtle wave tracking over the ridge axis across the northern Panhandle on Sunday, there may be just enough with heating and limited forcing to pop off an isolated storm or two, but still the probability is very low, so much that we only have about a 10 percent chance. As we head into Monday the ridge does attempt to expand and amplify as 500mb heights rise and 850mb temps jump 29-32C, which will certainly bring widespread mid 90s and some areas of lower 100s. Areas most prone for heat products on Monday would be the Canadian River Valley area (Boys Ranch, Fritch, Borger, Canadian) and the Palo Duro Canyon State Park area.

Tuesday a little bit of a break down in 500 heights as a upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest and brings more of a southwest flow over New Mexico and the ridge axis becomes more displaced over the Mississippi Valley. Still very warm temperatures expected with widespread 90s to some lower 100s, but may not be quite enough for heat products. We will be watching the northwest corner of the Panhandles as a shortwave may trigger some storms off the mountains of NM and track them into the northeastern part of NM and then the northwest TX/OK Panhandle and into southeast CO.

Wednesday looks to be our warmest day as the southwest flow and warmer air is well advected over our area. 850mb temps ranging from 30C-35C will support likely widespread heat highlights. And with a pseudo-dryline setup across the central Panhandles, as well as a subtle wave moving across in the afternoon, models are indicating some convection along that boundary from Amarillo to Guymon around peak heating as we have a really good push of 700mb Theta E moisture advected over the central Panhandles. PWAT's are pretty good in the 1.20-1.40" range with storms that should blow up right along that line and have little to no steering flow, supporting storms that will just sit over the area and dump quite a bit of rain. But still in Day 6 so a lot can change.

Thursday is a bit tricky as we do have some models suggesting that the hottest day will be held back a bit and that what is expected on Wednesday may occur on Thursday. NBM is leaning in that direction, so current forecast does reflect that, but should the faster solution pan out, we should be in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Thursday and whats interesting is that while the day should be mostly dry there could be some return easterly flow Thursday evening that really drives up the dewpoints and we may be looking at elevated overnight convection across a good chunk of the Panhandles.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds 10-15kts out of the south to southwest. Will not rule out a pop up thunderstorm at KAMA or KGUY in the 18-03z time period today, but confidence is too low for a PROB30, and will be dealt with via amendments.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.