textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Scattered storms this afternoon and evening mainly across the southwest half of the Panhandles with a marginal to slight risk for severe storm impacts. - Above normal temperatures through the week with triple digit heat by mid week. - Much less storms in the area Monday and Tuesday, then storm chances increase again mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Moisture axis and track of the final upper level short wave/disturbance moving SE will favor the southwest Panhandles this aftn and evening for TSTM development. One negative factor noted however is the main lift associated with the main trough axis is occurring now and therefore is not timed well with the best heating and instability. In fact models indicate overall Q Vector divergence by late afternoon (suggesting sinking air), but there is some remaining upstream energy on the backside of the trough and this is expected to be enough to at least keep the atmosphere neutral and allow thermodynamically driven processes to initiate and maintain convection in the west. MLCAPE is forecast to be around 800 to 1400 j/kg. DCAPE near 1500 J/KG which supports roughly a 61 mph downdraft plus any forward momentum from storm motion. Shear is marginal but effective bulk shear forecast values of near 30 are enough to support a marginal threat for severe storms and SPC has included a slight risk area as well that mostly is south of the area, but does clip the far SW Panhandles. Hail potential should be less than yesterday with hail sizes most likely less than 1 1/2 inches.

The early part of the work week will be less active and while we can't completely rule out a rouge storm, POPs are less than 10 percent for the most part on Monday as the H5 ridge extends NE across CO and the Central Plains. The above normal trend in temperatures will continue Monday.

Gittinger

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The extension of the H5 ridge NE across the Central Plains is forecast to be short lived as it becomes more rounded off Tue and especially for mid to late week. Meanwhile nice H7 theta-e ridging into the Panhandles from NM suggests good potential to maintain storms into the area off the higher terrain. This will open the door to NW flow events with disturbances rolling across CO and NRN NM across the Panhandles. The largest negative factor currently is the dewpoint forecasts only showing lower 50s by Thu which suggests more limited low level moisture. That said, the pattern recognition suggests NW flow storms and medium range models historically struggle with this pattern, often underplaying the TSTM events in the extended periods. GFS certainly has a habit of underplaying dewpoints and CAPE in the later periods. There is always a chance for severe storms in this pattern at least for wind gusts. POPs are low on Tue only showing slight chances across the far NW. Rain chances increase from for Wed through Fri. Currently the highest POPs (40-60% per the NBM) are indicated for Thu into Thu night w/ 20-40% Wed and Fri and less than 20 percent on Sat. This seems reasonable given model progs but timing could certainly change. While the H5 ridge position will promote TSTM chances, it will also promote continuation of above normal temperatures through the period with triple digit highs late in the week again.

Gittinger

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Genrally VFR conditions expected outside of storms in the area. The thunderstorms will have greatest chance to impact AMA, followed by DHT. GUY chances are too low to mention. There are already weak storms across the western Texas Panhandle into NM and in general, storms could occur anytime from now through midnight. Tried to narrow down best times in TAFs, but confidence is low on timing and ammendments are likely to be needed.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.