textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 850 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Tuesday, especially for the western Panhandles.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible for the eastern Panhandles on Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 850 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Latest 04Z observations shows a few showers trying to develop in the far SE TX Panhandle. As the northern edge of the main area of H700 theta-e advection moves into the SE TX Panhandle, in- conjunction with the subtle H500 NW flow wave traversing the Panhandles, some showers, and even an elevated thunderstorm may be possible through 06-08Z before overall lift shifts well to the east. South of the depicted theta-e gradient, some low clouds and some patchy fog advecting NW from the Texas South Plains within the tributaries of the Red River potentially as far north as PDC. Any persistent low clouds and patchy fog that develops should dissipate by mid morning. Generally cloud cover should dissipate from west to east throughout the day. Clouds in the far eastern combined Panhandles may linger the longest throughout the day on Monday. As a result, high temperatures will range from the lower 60s in the far eastern Panhandles to mid and upper 70s in the far western Panhandles.

Well pronounced H850 WAA will be established tomorrow as a deepening H500 trough axis over the central Rockies brings sfc-mid level SW flow into the region. With subsidence in the column, very warm temperatures expected by Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 70s in the northern Panhandles to upper 80s in the southern Texas Panhandle. With some breezy westerly winds along with the warm temperatures and min RH values as low as 8-10 percent, we may see some elevated fire weather conditions on Tuesday, especially for the western Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 850 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Latest global model and numerical guidance continues to show the main mid level disturbances continue to track just north of the Panhandles. Main systems may still try to establish the main moisture transport axis with its western periphery into the eastern Panhandle. The best chances for any precipitation for the eastern Panhandles (20-30%) will be Thursday in to Thursday night. Overall temperatures throughout the long term forecast period will remain above average for early March.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 06Z TAFs at all TAF sites. The only exception could be at KAMA between 11-12Z through 14-15Z where the potential for MVFR cigs exist. VFR should then return to all TAF sites past 15Z to the end of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the north at 5-15 kts veering to south and southwesterly at 5-15 kts past 15Z and continuing through the remainder of the TAF period.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.