textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

-Critical Fire Weather conditions today. Limit any outdoor activities that can spark a fire as they will be very hard to control.

-Strong cold front this evening is expected to bring sustained winds over 30 mph and gusts over 55 mph, as well as temperatures that may fall below freezing Saturday morning and again Sunday morning.

-Both elevated and critical Fire Weather conditions will continue to be a concern Sunday through Wednesday as we continue to remain dry and at times breezy.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Latest observations show retreating dryline now extending from near Canyon to Canadian which will bring brief relief from the extremely dry conditions as relative humidity values finally come up across the southeastern half of the area this morning. Looking aloft, broad southwesterly flow continues ahead of a trough extending south from the Great Basin to near NV/UT. A very weak lead shortwave embedded in the southwest flow helped spark an elevated storm in Collingsworth County around 10 PM, but it quickly dissipated on the Oklahoma side as it ran into increasing CIN. The lack of mid/upper level lift will keep additional storm chances below 10 percent through this morning.

As the upper trough shifts eastward, mid and upper level winds will be on the increase. A southern stream jet will first move over the plains this morning before the mid level jet associated with the Great Basin trough impinges this afternoon. Meanwhile, pressure falls over the Raton Mesa and adjacent plains will promote increasing southwest winds which will help mix our dryline quickly to the east. This dryline will eventually tighten up most likely east of the OK/TX state line, and this is where storms are most likely to form and eventually become severe later this afternoon into this evening. Went ahead and retained the low chance PoPs near the state line to account for the few ensemble members holding the dryline further west. Severe chance increase rapidly east of the dryline where shear and instability do support all hazards, but chance of storms becoming severe in the TX Panhandle are very low at this time. Instead, we will be dealing with the dry sector of this system, where dry windy conditions will promote critical fire weather through early evening (see fire wx discussion below for more information).

A cold front currently moving through eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska is expected to make it to the Oklahoma Panhandle by around 18z today before stalling and perhaps even retreating slightly this afternoon. However, this front is expected to surge south this evening between roughly 00z and 06z. Strong winds behind the front are becoming more apparent and are certainly supported given 4+ mb/hr sfc height rises and a strengthening low level jet behind the front. HREF members are suggesting some isolated 60 mph gusts will occur behind the front, but overall confidence was not high enough to warrant a watch/warning yet. Confidence in 50-55 mph gusts is high, so have issued a Wind Advisory across all but the far southwest Panhandles which may need to be filled in later. The strongest winds will probably only last 2-4 hours, but winds may stay elevated for 6-8 hours after frontal passage. This front will usher in much cooler conditions, including a high chance (80%+) for freezing conditions across the northwest combined Panhandles and a low to medium chance across the remaining areas tonight. Winds will die off Saturday with temperatures only getting into the 60s to low 70s.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Surface high pressure will hang around until Sunday morning which will promote another cold night Saturday night into Sunday morning. A lot of the area could see frost/freeze conditions, but the northwest is most favored once again. Upper level ridging begins moving over the area next week which will lead to an upward trend in our temperatures and breezy dry conditions. The ridge looks to break down towards the end of the week, but no strong signals for rain are in the forecast at this time.

Ward

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This morning a low level cloud deck of MVFR conditions has built over KAMA. This will last until the mid morning hours when the winds pick up. After this VFR conditions at all terminals for the rest of the period. This morning the winds just above the surface will be far stronger leading to speed low level wind shear at all terminals. This will persist until the winds become gusty during the later morning hours. Then robust southwest wind will blow at all terminals until the passage of a cold front during the afternoon to evening. The passage of the front will bring a sharp shift to northerly winds and cause the winds to increase in strength. These strong north winds will continue to gust all through the night, although they will slowly weaken during the overnight hours. Finally the winds will become weak towards the mid morning hours of Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today with a "near- miss" setup for an outbreak scenario. The timing and magnitude of the system with respect to the low level thermal ridge aren't perfectly in sync, but we have seen significant wildfires over 5000 acres in these scenarios before, so today is certainly on the higher end of the critical scale. RFTIs of 5-7 will be common today with a few 8s where winds over perform and/or relative humidities fall below 6 percent. Southwest winds will be modest today for Panhandle standards, with gusts mainly in the 35 to 40 mph range (a few isolated 45 mph gusts certainly possible this afternoon). That said, with ERCs over the 90th percentile given recent days of accelerated drying, it won't take as much wind for fires to have moderate to high resistance to control. Temperatures will be in the 80s for most of the area, but areas along the low level thermal ridge and along/just west of the dryline near the OK/TX state line will likely push into the 90s this afternoon. Storms that form initially on the dryline could start a few fires, as they are not likely to produce much precipitation until they move east of the dryline into the deeper moisture in western and central Oklahoma. Finally, a cold front will be in play this afternoon into this evening, and this front is likely to bring much stronger winds in its wake mainly between 7 PM and 1 AM tonight. Wind gusts over 50 mph are likely behind this front and a few 60 mph gusts certainly can't be ruled out. The latest NBM probabilities calibrated to our ASOS instruments suggest a 20-40 percent chance for 60 mph gusts this evening behind the cold front. Winds will gradually diminish between 1 AM and 8 AM.

Ward

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>010-012>015-018>020.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001-002-006.

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for TXZ003-007-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001-002.

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OKZ001-002.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for OKZ003.