textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 906 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

-Critical Fire Weather for portions of the western Panhandles today. Be prepared for any new fires to spread quickly.

-Low chance (15%) for severe thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles Friday afternoon, Damaging winds and large hail are main threat, tornados cannot be ruled out. -Further elevated fire weather conditions can persist through next work, be sure to be fire safe and prevent wildfires.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 906 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Today a weather system over the northwestern portions of the U.S. will become stronger and push to the southeast. In doing so this will lead to an increasingly stronger west winds across the southern Rocky Mountains. This is setting up a lee trough towards the northwestern panhandles for this afternoon and evening. Both of these features combined are causing the gusty southwest winds across the panhandles. These winds combined with the ambient dry conditions is causing critical fire weather conditions, see the fire section for more details. The southwest winds are bringing in warmer downsloping air across the panhandles leading to ample heating. This is causing the temperatures to go above normal with mainly the 80s across the panhandles. Otherwise it will be a sunny and calm weather day.

Friday the weather system ejects out of the northern rockies into the Great Plains. By doing so this weather system will move a cold front south across the Great Plains. This cold front will most likely pass through the panhandles during the mid to late morning hours of Friday. As this weather system is centered over the central and northern panhandles the cold front has a high chance of stalling in the southern plains. The big question is exactly where the cold front will stall. The more high resolution models indicate that the front will pass across the panhandles and stall just to the south of the TX panhandle. Still there are some models that hint that it will stall in the southern TX panhandle around the I-40 corridor. Where this stalls is important as this front will serve as a focal point for the formation of rain showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon of Friday. Going with the most likely frontal placement of it being mainly to the south of the panhandles, this would limit the rain showers and thunderstorms to the southeastern portions of the TX panhandle. If the front stall further north then the expected are of rain showers and thunderstorms will cover more of the southern TX panhandle. The dynamics and instability will be such that there is a low chance (15%) for any of the thunderstorms to turn severe during Friday afternoon and evening. The most likely threat from such storms will be large hail and damaging winds, although tornados cannot be ruled out. This really highlights the importance of the frontal placement again as a more southerly front can greatly limit or even eliminate the chance for such storms in the panhandles. Still any storm that does manage to form will most likely move quickly into Oklahoma proper creating a narrow window for the severe threat in the panhandles. Northwest of the cold front dry and breezy conditions are forecasted which is leading to risk for critical fire weather conditions. See the fire section for more details. Later during the late evening and overnight another surge of cooler air from the weather system will push south across the panhandles. This will push out any moisture ending the chance for further rain showers and thunderstorms. However, if there is high enough moisture then this second push could act as a front and spark off some nocturnal rain showers and thunderstorms. Since the chances of this occurring are so low they are not reflected within the current forecast. The final impact from this weather system will be the overall cooler temperatures owing to the passage of the cold front.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 906 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This weekend the weather system over the Great Plains will most likely push off to the northeast with a broad ridge building into the southern plains. This will most likely make this weekend a period of dry and fair weather with breezy winds. It is still more likely than not for the cooler air of the weather system to linger across the southern plains. This means the panhandles will most likely see warm temperatures with the highs in the 60s for Saturday and 70s for Sunday.

For the work week the high pressure will more likely than not continue to build eastward and remain over the southern plains. However the high pressure is more likely than not to be weak allowing for small weather system to pass through the southern plains. This means that each time a weather system passes through there will be a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. The temperatures will most likely remain warm as the high pressure will provide heating even if it weak.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 906 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Winds remain southwesterly and gusting in the 20s kt range through the rest of the afternoon. The winds will cease gusting overnight but this sets up speed low level wind shear at all terminals. The low level wind shear will end Friday morning once the winds become gusty with the passage of the cold front. The passage of the cold front will see the winds take a sharp shift from southwest - west to north. These north winds will remain breezy through the rest of the morning and afternoon of Friday. There is a low chance for the front to stall around KAMA for Friday morning. If this occurs then the winds would remain westerly for KAMA until the front passes through. Since this is the lesser chance the TAFs reflect the more likely occurrence of the front passing fully across KAMA. This front will have a moderate chance (30-50%) of spawning rain showers and thunderstorms to its east starting Friday afternoon, mainly in the southeastern TX panhandle. There is a very low chance that any of these will impact any terminal, this requires the slower front that stalls on KAMA. Still since these thunderstorms will be capable of becoming severe they will pose a risk for pilots passing through the eastern panhandles on Friday afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 906 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue for this afternoon into evening across the western panhandles. These critical fire weather conditions are driven by the combination of gusty southwest winds and dry air. The winds will be driven be a lee trough today which makes the winds stronger in the western panhandles and weaker in the eastern panhandles. This will see the sustained winds mainly in the 20s mph with the gusts in the 30s mph with an occasional stronger gusts in the 40s mph for the western panhandles. Since these are southwest winds they are bringing generally drier air that will cause the RH to bottom out in the lower tens across much of the panhandles. The eastern panhandles will have a little more moisture leading to the min RHs falling to the mid teens This is creating mainly 3 to 5 RFTI across the western panhandles with lesser 1 to 2 RFTI for the central and eastern panhandles. Still the fuels remain very dry so even with these middle RFTI values fire will be capable of spreading rapidly. Still the true window of critical fire conditions will be narrow today as the stronger winds are expected later in the day. This means that the sun will set leading to an increase in the RH that will lessen the RFTI even as the winds continue to blow.

Friday it will be dry and breezy to the northwest of the cold front. This is leading to fairly widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the panhandles. We could see critical fire weather conditions in the southwestern TX panhandles for Friday afternoon. This is due to the southwestern panhandles having a high chance of remaining dry both ahead of and behind the cold front. As the front is expected to either stall over or just south of this region the winds will be stronger. The coupling of the dry and winds will lead to the critical fire weather conditions. Still the requires a close proximity to the front to help drive the winds so if the front pushes to far to the south conditions will be more elevated rather than critical. Owing to this uncertainty we will continue to hold off on a Fire Weather Watch.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.