textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- There is a low potential for thunderstorms in the northern Panhandles today with a very low risk for severe weather.

- Hot temperatures and thunderstorms chances expected for the holiday weekend with greatest rain chances on Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures continue next week, but so do chances for storms.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Weak mid level flow is expected to tranisition from a southwest to anticyclonic over the combined Panhandles today. With weak flow overhead, lift is expected to be mostly absent today and tonight with little to no storm activity. A surface trough is expected to move into the combined Panhandles and spread Tds from the upper 20s and 30s to the west to the mid to upper 50s in the east. Slightly warmer afternoon highs are expected in the northwestern Panhandles where the lowest Tds will be. Temperatures are expected to reach 100 to 103 here while the east sees temps stop short of 100. Based on forecast soundings, the atmosphere will be lacking moisture for storms today with maybe the northeast seeing just enough mid level moisture to have a slight chance for rain. If storms do occur they will likely be from a shortwave sparking activity in southwest KS that bleeds over into the OK Panhandle.

Saturday, the surface trough over eastern NM is progged to expand more into the Panhandles and bring some slightly warmer temperatures expanding highs in the 100-105 range across the southern TX Panhandle. However, some increasing cloud cover in the afternoon may limit the full heating potential. Due to the cloud cover, keeping PDC lower than 105 at this time. An H5 trough is progged to swing into the Central Great Plains creating more subtle disturbances over the combined Panhandles. Due to the better lift late Saturday much more of the area is getting a slight chance PoPs. The thing that may kill thunderstorm chances tomorrow, or at least limit the afternoon coverage and longetivity of rain prodcution, will be a bit more negative theta-e advection and dry mid levels. Primarily in the northwest and southeastern Panhandles. A narrow corridor of positive theta-e advection running through the central Panhandles from the southwest to northeast will be the focal point of afternoon thunderstorms if they form. With a drier surface layer storms are expected to be high based with damaging winds being the primary threat.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Mid-level moisture is expected to return Sunday as well as a slight increase in dewpoints as the surface trough retreats to the west. Afternoon highs are progged to be slightly cooler than Saturday thanks to the increase in moisture, but with perturbations in the ridge aloft PoPs will increase into the 30-50 range going into Sunday night. Details are a bit fuzzy at this time but cannot rule out a low chance for severe thunderstorms.

Monday onward, with the influence of the an upper levl ridge, afternoon highs conintue in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Mid-level moisture is expected to stick around with slight chance PoPs peppered through the forecast for at least parts of the Panhandles each afternoon/evening. Storms will depend on daytime heating and subtle upper level support each day with confidence remaining low through the extended for storm chances due to the resolution of long term models.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Winds should prevail out of the south with gusts up to 20 to 30 kts possible through 02Z Saturday. There is a low chance for some thunder to impact KGUY between 23Z Fri and 04Z Sat. Low enough to not mention in the TAFs at this time.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.