textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Dry and breezy conditions hold through today and most of tomorrow afternoon.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return this week with best chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to follow this active pattern with highs in the 60s as early as Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Present model and satellite agreement continues to see the building of a closed upper-level low across the West Coast now that the trough has ingest what remains of Tropical Storm Rachel. Meanwhile to our southeast an upper-level high has continue to strengthen across the Gulf States with expectation to push a little further north over the course of today and tomorrow. For us here in the Panhandles, the placement of these two system has resulted in decent southwesterly upper-level over the area that has dragged a mid to low-level jet across the Southern Great Plains. While this flow has yet to drag up any of the gulf moisture that we have been talking about, it has been working with a lee-side low to produce some breezy to gusty wind this afternoon. At this time, expect winds this afternoon and evening to be out of the southwest with speeds around 15 to 25 mph and gusts upwards of 30 to 40 mph. Thankfully, recent rainfall alongside some moisture should keep fire weather concern down for today. By Monday, most CAMs do look for conditions stay to rather similar to today. However, recent runs with some of the CAMs have seen some extra moisture arriving later that evening into the overnight. Should that occur then it not impossible for us to see a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms push in across our southwest. Given this, it has been decided to put a 10 percent chance across the Southwestern Panhandles. Otherwise, look for temperatures to stay warm with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday continue to trend as our most active days of this coming week as models see the closed upper-level low push eastward across Southern Nevada while the upper-level high settles over the Gulf States. This positioning will lead to decent amount of moisture funneling from both gulfs into the Southern Great Plains for those days. Added to this will also be the potential for remnants of Hurricane Simon and other tropical systems to be ingested into this flow, which would result in an amplification of the expected moisture. If the latest mid to long range models are to be believed then PWAT values across the Eastern Panhandles can range from 1.5 inches all the way to 2 inches in our far Southeast. Such values are very well above normal for this time of year and can easily lead to another round of heavy to torrential rainfall, especially across our east. Added to this has been a continued trend of increase instability and wind shear that would suggest strong to severe thunderstorms being a possibility for Tuesday evening going into early Wednesday. However, there are some caveats that can see this active pattern not reach its full potential. The first of which being the position of the upper- level low as it move over the Panhandles. Presently most models have said low taking a more northerly track, which typically opens the Panhandles up to a bit more to the subsidence and dry air sections of the low. While this has done little to diminish our chances across our east in most model runs, it has seen the Northwestern Panhandles a too stable with chances over there only running around 10 to 20 percent. These lower chances can spread even further across the Panhandles should the low decide to drop slightly more south and place itself directly on top of us. Secondary to this issue will be the timing of the associated cold front following said low. As it stand present model agreement has the main cold front arriving sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. However, a few runs, have picked up on the potential of a much earlier arrival of the front, which is more typical for our area this time of year. An earlier arrival of the front would dampen our rainfall amounts as the atmosphere would be a lot stabler, leading to a more stratiformic rain event at its best or no rain at all at its worst. Either way present NBM is favoring for some form of precipitation continuing with 20 to 40 percent chances holding through Friday morning. Otherwise, look for much cooler temperatures to follow this activity with high in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday that will be followed by highs in the 60s as early as Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A decent mid to low-level jet continues to hold over the Panhandles with expectations to stay present through Monday evening. As of right now, this jet alongside a lee-side surface low are working in tandem to produce breezy to gusty surface winds for all terminals with potential to see gusts upwards of 35 kt this afternoon. This jet should decouple later tonight, which will likely result in some low-level wind shear through the overnight period. Otherwise look for all terminals to stay at VFR levels through the next 24 hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.