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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions persist through Monday afternoon. Watching for potentially extreme fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday with high winds and extremely low RH.

- Severe thunderstorm chances may exist in the far eastern combined Panhandles both Saturday and Sunday depending the location of a dryline.

- A cold front late Monday is expected to help bring temperatures back to near normal Tuesday onward.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Continuing to monitor for the potential of some isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms across the combined Panhandles this afternoon/evening. Upper level support may be present from some perturbations in the flow aloft. H7 theta-e shows positive advection across the northern and southern combined Panhandles with an axis of negative advection through central portions suggesting storms may not have as much coverage as they did yesterday. The NamNEST shows storms along firing along a boundary near the Dalhart to Beaver. North of this boundary winds were expected to be light and mainly northerly. However, with the chance of very inefficient rain producing thunderstorms winds may increase across the northern combined Panhandles leading to a couple to three hours of critical fire weather conditions. Confidence is storm coverage south of this boundary is low. However, winds are expected to be prevailing around 20 gust 30 mph out of the southwest with additional chances for lightning started fires.

Tonight, winds briefly drop off after turning northerly as this surface boundary travels further south. Winds in the southeast Texas Panhandle should remain south of the boundary and maintain winds upwards of 15 mph. During the afternoon the far southeast can see sustained winds upwards of 25 mph and the far northwest combined Panhandle may see winds reach the 15 to 20 mph range. Between these two areas winds are expected to be lighter, maybe between 10 to 15 mph out of the southwest. This will help eliminate the wind component to fire weather conditions. However, temperatures are expected to rise into mid to upper 90s again. Especially with clearer skies thanks to negative H7 theta-e advection. This will lead to RH values as low as 7 in the west and 10-15 percent in the east. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be expected once again, especially in the western to southern combined Panhandles. Thunderstorms chances are less likely with only the far eastern TX Panhandle having a slight chance east of a potential dryline forming. Overnight Sat night, this dryline is expected to retreat back to around the central combined Panhandles with breezy. winds on both sides of this surface boundary.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Sunday, an upper level system is progged to enter the Great Basin Region and bring increasing southwest winds aloft to the combined Panhandles with the approaching trough. The increasing winds aloft will help increase surface winds Sunday into Monday with a leeside low developing late Saturday night. The dryline that forms from this low will need to be watched, as there will be potential for severe storms in the eastern combined Panhandles Sunday afternoon into evening. West of the this dry line strong southwesterly winds and dry air will supply critical to extreme fire weather conditions. Not only that RH values are progged to be well below 10 percent on top of the cured vegetation that has not been able to green up due to drought. These conditions are expected to persist into Monday with higher probabilities to see wind gusts exceed 50 mph. There is maybe a 10 percent chance to see gusts exceed 50 mph on Sunday in the far northern to northwest Panhandles. Come Monday though, NBM probs increase to the 20 to 30 percent across more of the northwestern third of the combined Panhandles. However, current deterministic models suggest H5 winds will be the greatest (50-60kts) during the early morning hours on Mon, before weakening as the system becomes more and more of an open wave trough. This may be a good thing to have the highest wind gusts early in the day before the RH values plummet into the single digits.

This trough entering the Great Plains on Monday will also be sending a cold front into the Panhandles. There is a bit of uncertainty at the timing of this cold front with it entering the Panhandles near sunset. But some guidance suggest there is potential for it to be through the OK or further by noon. This could cease fire weather concerns for new starts. However, the timing will need to be honed in on in case of any ongoing or turnover fires from Sunday. With the approaching cold front the dryline should push well off to the east limiting any thunderstorm chances for the combined Panhandles on Monday.

Afternoon temperatures Tuesday are progged to be in the upper 70s to 80s, and not the 90s thanks to the front Monday night. A secondary shortwave trough is progged to come through late Tue which may not only bring rain chances into early Wed, but may also bring cooler afternoon temperatures Wed with the entire combined Panhandles seeing highs in the upper 70s. Increased cloud cover from this system is most likely be contributing to the expected cool temperatures Wed as well. Confidence is low Wed onward, but Thu is looking to possibly keep highs well below 90 and even hang on to some PoPs in the forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. However, this is a big however, isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms have a potential to impact the terminals through 03Z. Dry thunderstorms could kick up blowing dust or start new fires creating smoke that will potentially impact any one terminal between 21Z and 03Z Saturday. Wind gusts produced by these showers or storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 40 kts. Confidence is too low at this time to put mentions in the TAFs but be prepared for amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry lightning, dry conditions, and gusty winds remain a concern for localized critical fire weather conditions today across the combined Panhandles. Even though RFTIs in the north are forecast to be prevailing around 1, thunderstorm activity with very little precipitation may change conditions fast and maintain more critical conditions for several hours before falling off after sunset. Parts of the southern and central Texas Panhandle may see prevailing west to southwest winds around 15 to 20 mph helping to maintain RFTI around 4 to 6 without thunderstorm involvement. Dry lightning will still be a concern for these areas as well.

Tomorrow, dry and slightly breezy conditions are expected for western and southern portions of the combined Panhandles. Winds may very across the Panhandles with some zones seeing lighter winds. However, everyone should see RFTIs as high as 4 mainly in the west and south due to RH.

Sunday, increasing winds with an approaching upper level system will induce extremely dry and windy conditions to the area, especially across the central to western combined Panhandles. RH values are expected to be as low as 5 percent with winds gusting to 40-45 mph. This will lead to RFTIs upwards of 7 across the western two thirds of the combined Panhandles. Monday is expected to be a repeat with a potential for winds to gust slightly higher at time in the 45-55 mph range. Although lightning will not be of concern like today, any remaining embers from yesterday, even todays fires will have a potential to spark new fires. Sunday has a 10 percent chance to see significant fires, with Monday having as high as a 30 percent chance. A cold front is expected late Monday with low confidence on the exact timing of the front. Generally, for now, expecting the front to enter the OK Panhandle in the late afternoon/evening time frame.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.