textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Above average temperatures in the 90s are expected through the end of the week. Temperatures are favored to return closer to normal in the 70s and 80s through next week.

- A pattern change could provide more rain opportunities this weekend into next week for much of the Panhandles, with low chances for heavy rain and strong storms.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Observational data depicts a very stagnant upper level pattern atop the Panhandles today, as we sit between high pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our northwest. This leaves sinking, subsident air for the region, which along with poor mid-level moisture should keep us dry today. Afternoon temperatures will climb back into the 90s for a majority of the CWA today and tomorrow, and a few select locations off the Caprock flirting with 100 degrees. Winds will stay breezy out of the south-southwest, sustained at 10-20 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph in the northwest combined Panhandles.

The NW CONUS closed low should finally begin making some eastward progression tomorrow, placing increasing southwest flow aloft over New Mexico where afternoon-evening convection is expected on the higher terrain. Several CAMs depict some of this activity eventually breaching the far west/southwestern Panhandles in the evening to overnight hours, especially if any outflow boundaries can spark new development. Any spotty showers & storms could provide gusty winds and localized areas of moderate to heavy rainfall Friday night into early Saturday morning (15-25% POPs).

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Once the 500mb closed low to our northwest finally ejects eastward over the north-central Plains, the base of the trough axis should be draped atop the southern High Plains through this weekend. A subtle surface boundary is set to stall over the southern & eastern TX Panhandle through the day Saturday, most likely somewhere south of the Highway 60 corridor. Moisture along and ahead of this feature (60s dew points & 1.0-1.5" PWATs) combined with highs in the 90s will be in place when a pair of embedded shortwaves ahead of the trough reach the area. This should create an unstable and slightly sheared environment, characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 15-25 kt Bulk Shear. As long as the lead shortwave doesn't greatly inhibit the environment, the next disturbance hot on its heels should generate scattered thunderstorms along the boundary in the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. Any storms could be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

Highest confidence in rain is still mostly confined to the far southern & eastern Texas Panhandle (30-50% POPs) based on current expectations of where the best surface and upper level features should overlap. Northwest areas have the lowest likelihood of rain, but central areas of the Panhandles including Amarillo could still have a brief window for storm development if the boundary hangs north, or if ingredients are timed more favorably like the NAM suite of guidance is suggesting (20-30% POPs). There is still much potential for the timing and location of these features to shift around and greatly change the forecast. But for now, something along the lines of the scenario provided in this discussion is a mostly likely outcome given current model data. Depending on the timing of the trough axis' arrival along with a stronger cold frontal passage, additional showers and storms could last Saturday night into Sunday morning across primarily the north and eastern Panhandles. Once the trough exits though, subsidence on the back side of the system should bring activity to an end for most of the region through Sunday night.

Long range model trends are persistent in predicting a pattern change that would provide more rain opportunities throughout the week for the southern High Plains and Panhandles region. Current thinking is that another low pressure system to our west and ridging to our south will place southwest or zonal flow atop the region each day, helping to maintain anomalously high moisture content. This setup is favorable for at least isolated to scattered rain chances any day, but more widespread coverage of soaking rain would be expected further west over New Mexico into the western Panhandles where better jet dynamics would be situated. We will have to monitor the synoptic evolution to see what areas have higher probabilities, but global ensembles and long range guidance are pinging chances for rain totals >1" with these systems. At the very least, the pattern should provide near average temperatures in the 70s and 80s throughout the work week.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts at times.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.