textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and evening across the Panhandles. Some storms may have gusty winds and small hail, but heavy rain and localized flooding would be the greatest concern with the storms, with isolated to scattered landspouts as a secondary concern.

- There is a low chance for flooding due to excessive rain in the eastern Panhandles on Wednesday.

- Continued on and off chances of showers and storms each day Wednesday through next Tuesday. Right now the threat for severe weather is to low to mention but Friday shows some promise.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers and storms moving into the southern Panhandle this afternoon, with some isolated storms popping in the central to norther Panhandle. Overall the moisture has held off to the south earlier this morning but we are getting the better lift moving over our area with the shortwave trough, add that with the increased moisture and we do anticipate better coverage of showers and storms this afternoon with moderate to heavy rain being the main focus. That could lead to some localized flooding issues as PWAT's are over an inch for the area. Some secondary concerns that we are seeing is the potential for isolated to scattered landspouts with these showers/storms. The enhanced stretching in the lower levels is pretty high in the eastern Panhandles, and while not great, is still somewhat present in the southwest. And we've already had multiple calls as well as verified on some of our cameras that a landspout occurred in Deaf Smith County a couple hours ago. But with multiple cells expected later and the potential for all the boundary collisions to occur, certainly would support a greater chance for landspouts today. While instability isn't the best, the dynamics and lift may be just enough that we could get a couple severe storms this afternoon as well. 18z sounding at KAMA shows good dry air aloft and our lower levels in the boundary layer continues to moisten up. This setup is supportive of a wet microburst, which has already occurred in Vigo Park to the south with a 77 mph wind gusts and over a half an inch of rain in just 5 minutes. Coverage is expected to expand across the entire Panhandles later this evening and tonight, so much that pops will stay up in the 50 to 70 percent range all night.

Wednesday the system will still be over the Panhandles and there may even be some wrap around moisture that lingers for the morning into the early afternoon. ML CAPE values not too impressive in the north as soundings will be fairly moist, but they do pick up in the afternoon for the southern Panhandles, and there is a little impulse on the back side of the upper trough that might provide just enough lift during peak heating to get some storms to pop up. And at this point the shear doesn't look too good, but ML CAPE values could range from 1000-1500 J/kg and that might be enough to get some hail up to an inch.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Thursday may be the only day we get the best break in storms as we remain between disturbances. The main upper level system that had been driving the weather in recent days will remain over the eastern NV area before being kicked off up to the interior Pacific Northwest Friday evening. While we are on a potential break on Thursday, given the residual moisture from recent rains, the potential for isolated to scattered pop up storms is certainly still in the cards. With the system ready to kick out Friday night into Saturday, that sets up another round of forcing with the negative tilt trough set up on Friday. That could set up some better shear dynamics for an increased chance at severe weather. As we move into the weekend, there's a mixed bag of solutions that suggest we could be returning to a warmer an drier ridging patter, which has been in previous model runs, but the potential for a weak cutoff system has also indicated that the Panhandle could be in for a weekend of increased rain chances as it just sits over the area keeping the cooler temperatures and rain chances, despite the overall upper . ridge being over us as well. So confidence in rain chances and temperatures are very questionable at this time. Monday does look like a breakdown of the upper level ridge and another round of showers and storms could be in store.

Weber

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles now through Wednesday. This is causing rain showers and thunderstorms that will impact all terminals on and off for much of the next 24 hours. Low ceilings of MVFR to IFR can be expected with the rain and during the overnight hours. The winds will shift around significantly in direction as the weather system pass through. Although the winds speeds will generally be weaker, barring any outflow winds from thunderstorms.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.