textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Scattered rain showers and storms this morning through this evening across the Panhandles. Some storms may have gusty winds and hail, but heavy rain and localized flooding would be the greatest concern with the storms.

- There is a low chance for flooding due to excessive rain in the northeastern half of the Panhandles today.

- Continued on and off chances of showers and storms each day Thursday through next Tuesday. Right now the threat for severe weather is to low to mention but Friday shows some promise.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A weather system continues to impact the southern plains with the surface circulation centered over the panhandles today. This is both bringing in additional moisture to the eastern panhandles and wrapping back moisture from the north into the western panhandles. All this moisture coupled with the latent instability of the weather system is continuing to cause rain showers with the occasional thunderstorms this morning. All this moisture will allow for mist and fog to form this morning. This is questionable as the unstable condition this morning can prevent the mist or fog from forming. Conditions become more unstable going into the later afternoon hours with the arrival of a small impulse within the system over the panhandles and from daytime heating. This can lead to instability that is most likely in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range although there could be pockets of higher values. There will be some limited shear which can allow for storm organization. Such conditions will allow for the formation of additional and more robust thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Such storms would have the capability to produce hail that can reach upwards of an inch. Further high moisture will be across the panhandles allowing storms to produce heavy rainfall. This rainfall will be capable of melting hail that does form so it could heavily counter the size of hail. The heavy rainfall will present a low risk for flooding that will be higher in eastern panhandles where the moisture is the highest. The thunderstorm activity will wane in the later evening as the weather system moves to the northeast. Still, some lingering rain showers may persist through the overnight hours into Thursday morning.

Thursday the weather system continues to moves to the northeast with a small ridge building over the panhandles. This will bring more stable conditions to the panhandles that will limit the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms. There will be moisture over the panhandles which coupled with the limited instability will allow for few to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. These storms will most likely come to an end during the evening with the loss of day time heating.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Friday the next weather system pushes into the southern plains from the desert southwest. This will bring increased instability to the region that can spark another round of rain showers and thunderstorms. The trough is favoring a negative tilt as it passes across the region which will bring enhanced dynamics to the panhandles. This opens the door for stronger to even severe thunderstorms to occur during Friday afternoon and evening. High moisture will likely accompany this weather system so these storms have the potential for heavy rain that can cause flooding.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

As of this morning, showers remain present across the the northern and eastern portions of the Panhandles with activity currently impacting both KDHT and KGUY. Latest CAMs continue to see shower and potentially thunderstorm activity hold through most of the day with activity staying more on the scatter side once again. This scattered nature will likely see off and on impacts to all the northern terminals with current expectation to see them bounce from MVFR to brief IFR conditions. Meanwhile at KAMA, current CAMs do see the area slowly returning to VFR conditions by the late morning. However, new development could follow by that afternoon and evening, which could result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms impacting the terminals. At this time, CAMs don't see very strong ingridients for anything outside of an isolated thunderstorms, especially if cloud cover remains broken or overcast, so have left KAMA with PROB30 for the current package.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.