textproduct: Amarillo

UPDATE

Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Latest infrared satellite imagery this morning depicts scattered low clouds/fog has developed across the southwestern TX Panhandle into parts of eastern NM. This activity has been observed at the Hereford AWOS, which is currently down to a quarter mile visibility at the time of this writing. Some of the fog may be dense at times, so caution is advised for anyone traveling across the southwestern TX Panhandle this morning. Have added some patchy fog mentions to the forecast through mid morning for the aforementioned areas.

Muscha

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Temperatures slowly rise as we progress through the week. Most locations should reach the 90's by Friday.

Low end thunderstorm chances continue most days this week, with additional uncertainties regarding storms next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The upper level low previously forecast to be centered over our CWA has now shifted further south into the Southern Plains and north Texas. Because of this, very limited moisture advection is forecast for our area and PoPs have been lowered below mentionable criteria. Thursday could be a different case, as PoPs are contingent on moving into our area from New Mexico and SE Colorado. Guidance remains somewhat mixed on the storm coverage. Most storms should only affect the western zones of our CWA, but a few could make it into the eastern Panhandles. Storms are not expected to become severe at this time. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80's for both Wednesday and Thursday.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Friday, current 00Z guidance suggest that thunderstorms may move into the western CWA once again off of the high terrain in New Mexico. Low end severe potential currently exists as SBCAPE increase the further storms move east. However, 0-6 km bulk shear values remain sub par. The main hazard expected would be damaging winds given the impressive >2,000 J/kg DCAPE values models are showing.

Long range models still seem to show some disagreement concerning the placement of the upper level ridge next week. If the upper high can remain centered over the southwestern CONUS, perturbation may generate off the axis of the ridge and thunderstorm chances could continue well into next week. However, if the high positions itself further east over portions of Texas and Oklahoma, expected temperatures to rise above average values for this time of year and thunderstorm chance to become suppressed next week. The NBM continues with low end PoPs given these uncertainties. Although, PoPs also remain low given the isolated to scattered coverage expected with our potential storms. Night time convection also seems to be a common theme amongst the models that are promoting thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor these trends as well.

Rangel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours at the terminals. Winds will remain out of the south during this TAF cycle with occasional gusts around 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours today. Scattered to few high clouds will linger across the region today.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.