textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 448 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Flood risk continues for the next few days.

- Temperatures will remain seasonably average through the work week.

- An active pattern looks to continue in the long-term.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 448 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Impressive moisture content over the area this morning with PWATS in the top 2.5% to the highest for this time of year depending on what part of the panhandle region you are looking at. This morning Dalhart has received 1.84 inches of rain through 11am. They were on the eastern edge of a larger stratiform area of rain that extended from New Mexico into the northwest panhandle and is moving north. WPC has maintained a Moderate Excessive Rain Outlook which clips our far northwestern counties, and a slight and marginal risk covering most of the rest of the area. The synoptic pattern is dominated by a high pressure ridge centered over east Texas and a trough of low pressure extending from the intermountain west south into Mexico. Tropical moisture is being funneled north n the flow pattern of these features and a well defined shortwave trough is augmenting the lift as it begins to move into New Mexico. Additional lift from orographic lifting, WAA and heating of the day will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms over New Mexico training over areas that have already received heavy rain. Afternoon heating will lead to destabilization of the air mass over west Texas and this will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms. These storms will be efficient heavy rain producers with this highly favorable moist air mass. The main axis of heavy rain forecasted by the models is from northeast New Mexico across the northwestern panhandles and into southwest Kansas. However, hi res CAM models are also showing high precip amounts over portions of the southeast TX panhandle with a separate area of heavy rain producing convection. While the exact locations of these corridors of heavy rain will likely shift and not be exactly where they are shown now the overall environment is favorable for very heavy rain producing convection. Total precip amounts are highly variable but in areas that do get the heavy rain amounts will be impressive but also likely highly localized. Looking at the DESI HREF probs of 2.5 inches clearly shows the northwestern areas is the best probability for these high amounts. Therefore will be issuing a flood watch for this most hi probability area at this time but will continue to monitor trends and guidance for the southeastern area.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 448 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Long range guidance from the GFS and ECMWF AI is showing a more active pattern across the CONUS over the next week. In the eastern Pacific, intense Hurricane Polo will get caught up in a trough over the western US towards the end of the period and bring tropical moisture across Mexico and into Texas. If this scenario occurs then there could be more heavy rain across portions of west Texas. Will watch trends over the next several days to see if this scenario continues to remain viable.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

VFR conditions currently to start at KGUY/KAMA with MVFR conditions to start at KDHT for the 00Z TAF period. At KDHT for the first few hours may experience some VCTS conditions along with MVFR cigs. MVFR cigs to IFR cigs at times will eventually move back into KAMA/KGUY between 06-12Z and will remain at all TAF sites throughout the TAF period. Will have to watch for TSRA conditions at times where heavy rainfall and erratic winds are possible. Overall winds will be out of the south and southeast at 5-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ001-002.