textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

-Severe thunderstorm potential exists this afternoon and evening with the primary hazards being from damaging wind gusts upwards of 75mph and hail.

-A weather pattern shift will occur next week that has potential to bring needed rainfall and breaks in the heat to portions of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A frontal boundary remains stalled across the northwest combined Panhandles today, with a surface trough extending back to the west. This feature has resulted in nearly a ten degree spread in temperatures across the forecast area. Locations behind and to the north of it have northerly winds and temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s whereas ahead of it southerly winds have also contributed to increasing temperatures in the lower 90s. This will result in high temperatures today being cooler in the northwest and warmer to the south and east of the front/trough. Locations in the east will likely top out in the lower 100s, with some locations in the far southeast flirting with heat advisory thresholds.

The risk for severe weather continues for this afternoon and evening. Ample moisture is in place with 700mb theta-e values exceeding 340K across the eastern Panhandles. Deep layer wind shear of around 30kts, steep lapse rates suggest storms will organize into multicluster cells before perhaps congealing later into the evening. The primary concern will be from damaging winds upwards of 75-80mph but hail may also occur with any storm this afternoon and evening. Timing indicates that initiation may occur as early as 2-3pm but more likely closer to 4-5pm and continue through the evening hours, with the best location being from roughly Amarillo to Guymon and points east.

For Sunday, high pressure remains dominant over the region and this will lead to another hot day across the region. Much of the area should remain dry but there are hints of some isolated storms that may move in from the mountains to our west during the later afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The center of the upper ridge will move off to the east and this will allow for broad upper level troughing to take over just to our west. Several fronts look to come into or close to the region along with potential for better rain chances through the week. At this time, Tuesday looks like the best day in terms of chances for precip but each day next week shows potential, the most potential we have seen in quite some time. The other benefit to this increased chances for rain is it should keep our temperatures lower and closer to average or even below for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Thanks to the passage of a front, winds for KDHT and KGUY will be out of the north this afternoon and evening. KAMA will remain out of the south to southwest. KGUY has potential to be affected by storms later this afternoon and evening but confidence is so low as to not include in the forecast at this time. KAMA likewise could also be affected by storms after 00Z but confidence in that is even lower than KGUY, and has also be omitted from the official TAF. Winds will shift out of the south for tomorrow.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.