textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today in the Oklahoma panhandle and portions of the Texas panhandle. Avoid activities that promote open flames and sparks.

Impactful precipitation is still on track to impact the combined panhandles by Friday and Saturday. Forecast rain totals are still uncertain, but tend to lean towards lower values at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Oklahoma panhandle and most portions of the Texas panhandle this afternoon. See the FIRE WEATHER discussion for further details.

Forecast 850mb temperatures support highs in the mid to upper 70's across the region today. While the NBM ensembles favor more widespread 80's, recent CAMs and other guidance suggest temperatures will be closer to 70 than 80 degrees. Still, there are a few locations, mainly in our eastern zones, that could top out in the lower 80's this afternoon.

Tomorrow, highs will drop back into the 50's and 60's across the combined panhandles. Winds at the surface will still be breezy from the north until the evening. Precipitation chances continue to waiver in the southern Texas panhandle; but if a few showers can make it this far north, QPF totals will be light (<0.1").

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

After the passage of Tuesday's cold front, a steady ramp up in surface temperatures are still expected across the CWA Wednesday and Thursday. 20's and lower 30's are expected to return as low temperatures Wednesday morning, but overnight lows will experience another increase before our next cooldown this weekend. Precipitation may begin as early as Thursday night, but most long range models suggest the main time frame will be between Friday and Saturday. NBM PoPs are high during this time window, especially Friday night. Current deterministic models show far less QPF coverage than the NBM currently suggests. Model ensemble guidance, like the GEFS, show mean precipitation accumulation totals closer to 0.25" instead of 0.5" or 0.75". The current take on the outlook is: precipitation appears likely across portions of the area, but may not be as widespread or heavy as the NBM would propose. Given the orientation of the oncoming trough late this week, this would favor lower QPF outcomes; however, there are still a handful of ensembles that give the combined panhandles greater than 0.5" total QPF. Changes to the precipitation forecast are expected, so will continue to monitor the trends.

Rangel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Light winds will continue early this morning. It won't be until the afternoon when wind speeds increase. Strong, southwesterly winds are expected until the evening. While wind speeds will decrease after sunset, breezy winds will still be present through 06Z. VFR conditions prevail.

Rangel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

An incoming system Monday night into Tuesday is expected to see low and upper-level jet support set up this afternoon across the Panhandles. Present CAMs do see potential for the 850mb jet to peak around 40kt this afternoon. Expected dry conditions are likely to be a benefit for these winds to bleed down to the surface with present expectations seeing southwesterly winds of 20 to 25 mph and gust upwards of 35 mph. In the Western and North-Central Panhandles, latest CAMs have seen a strong presence of the jet, which has seen best chances (40 to 45%) of gust exceeding 40 mph. However, what continues to be the main driving factor for fire weather concerns this afternoon is the strong signal of very warm and dry conditions. As it stand latest guidance continues to see afternoon high push into the mid to upper 70s with some well know hotter locations possible nearing 80. These anomalously hot temperature have also coincided with very dry conditions with multiple models seeing RH values bottoming out below 10% with parts of the Canadian River Valley having chances to drop as low as 5%. These weather features in conjunctions with present fuel status has lead to the expectation of critical to near critical fire weather for multiple counties tomorrow afternoon. Given this, a Red Flag warning has been issued from noon to 6 pm.

One caveat for tomorrow, however, will be the approaching cold front expected late tomorrow going into Tuesday. As this front approaches, expectations are to see winds stay breezy beyond sunset which could allow for an extension of the present Red Flag Warning across the Southern Texas Panhandle. Where the uncertainly lies; however, is our RH recovery during the late evening and overnight. Presently models dose see the incoming front bring in moisture behind it with a little extra aid coming from the system well south of us along the US/Mexico boarder. If the front or this moisture does arrive early, which is typical for this time of year, then these concerns could be short lived. Regardless do look for a shift in winds to more northerly direction behind the front with speeds of 15 to 25 mph still possible through Tuesday afternoon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ001>013-016- 017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Monday for OKZ001>003.