textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

-Favorable weather pattern throughout the coming week for near daily rain chances, most days favoring the western Panhandles.

-Tuesday's cold front will have the best chances of precipitation, and will not rule out localized flooding as the primary concern with storms on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Loss of daytime heating will lead to storms being on a downward trend overnight. Still might get some isolated to scattered showers off of outflow boundaries, but mainly in the north and western Panhandles. The main concern today will be tighter surface gradients from a lee surface low setting up in eastern CO. This along with a modest 850/700mb jet over the Panhandles will set up breezy south to south southwest winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts up to 35 mph. This will be more of a Fire Weather concern as we still have some very dry fuels out there and this will put portions of the Panhandles into elevated to near critical Fire Weather conditions. A low chance of showers/storms in the northwest Panhandles as isolated to scattered showers off the mountains may merge into a cluster in the late evening to early overnight hours. Storms should be pretty tame in the evening as CAPE and DCAPE values are pretty marginal. Looking at forecast soundings tonight, there's a low chance (~20 percent) that these residual showers in the northwest could result in heat bursts with winds 50 to 60 mph.

As we move into Tuesday that lee surface low will track southeast into the northern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. This will bring a fairly substantial cold front with it and we'll have north to northwest winds behind the front. That will also result in ample lift that will support scattered to numerous storms across the southwest to northeast Panhandles. Therefore highs will be vastly different from the northwest to the southeast. Given the earlier arrival of the front the northwest Panhandles may be in the low to mid 80s and the southeast is still looking to be very close, if not break the 100 degree mark. We do expect decent rain rates along the front with the storms as PWAT's will range from 1.40-1.80" and given the forcing potential with the front, will not rule out strong to severe storms Tuesday evening. Shear is still a marginal so there may be some factors against severe weather. Showers and storms will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight, and winds will eventually shift back out of the south by the late overnight as the system that brought the front will be far enough to the east and the upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will begin to retrograde west and push that warmer and drier air over the Panhandles.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

With the ridge building west that will bring drier conditions to portions of the southeast to possibly central Panhandles and the western Panhandles will still have some moisture available for storms on Wednesday. This will be mainly north and west of an Amarillo to Canadian line.

Thursday through Sunday will be interesting as far as rain chances. The ridge of high pressure is still tracking further west, as a closed low undercuts the ridge over FL and into the Gulf (possible tropical system development down the line). At the same time the as this low tracks west toward the northeast Texas coast, another upper trough will swing in from the Pacific Northwest and start to really squeeze off this ridge and dissolve it out. This will bring increase chances of showers and storms to the Panhandles for the majority of the extended, but the extent of where and how much rainfall will occur is still highly in question. But it sure looks like a pattern chance to near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation is on the way to the Panhandles for the extended.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to hold through the 12Z TAF period. Strong winds, with gusts up to 35 kts, are expected at all sites through most of the day. The wind direction will start from the southwest, but may steadily become southerly by the late afternoon and evening. A PROB30 has been added for KDHT due to persistent thunderstorm chances at the terminal this evening. Mentions of thunder may be included at KGUY with future packages, but confidence remains too low to include them at this time.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.