textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

-Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially for the northern combined Panhandles.

-Heat headlines may be needed for Palo Duro Canyon on Sunday with temperatures at or above 105 degrees.

-Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week, varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight hours.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

An active overnight period, especially for the SE TX Panhandle, where some locations received over an inch of rain. Latest 18Z obs shows skies slowly clearing out, thanks to subsidence behind decaying storms in the Texas South Plains. Although we cannot rule out a pop up shower along the outflow boundary itself, chances remain under 10% at this time. High temperatures will reach well into the 80s for areas that clear out faster with upper 70s to lower 80s in areas hanging on to the clouds. Further to the west, thunderstorms will likely develop along the NM high terrain before moving SSE. Some storms may reach the TX/NM state line by 00-03Z this evening, where a 10-20% thunderstorm chance is possible. Otherwise, southeast sfc flow will continue to advect rich low level moisture into the Panhandles tonight into early tomorrow morning. Could see periods of low clouds and/or patchy fog, especially for the southern Texas Panhandle by Saturday morning.

By mid to late morning, any residual low clouds should clear out. Looking upstream to the central Rockies to our northwest, a notable H500 perturbation along an H500 elongated anti-cyclonic flow will establish lift and thunderstorms to develop east of the front range into eastern CO/SW Nebraska/NW Kansas. These initial thunderstorm development could extend as far south into portions of the OK Panhandle, if the areas of lift is displaced further south along notable (+) abs vort maxima. Continuing into the evening hours, latest guidance shows H850 30-40 kt SSE jet developing from the northern TX Panhandle into the central Plains. In- conjunction with 1500-2000 J/kg CAPE, storm mode should start as supercells, before becoming loose multi cell complex later if storms generate cold pool and progress southeastward by Saturday night. With this set up, all hazards are in play for Saturday with large hail up to 2"+ and 75 mph wind gusts will be the main hazards. Cannot rule out a tornado, but those chances at this time look the highest just north of the combined Panhandles where lower LCLs exist, but locally, the northern combined Panhandles could also have this risk. Any thunderstorm that develop in this +2 to +3 S.D. PWAT values compared to June climatology could produce heavy rainfall rates and produce some localized flooding. Storms should quickly move east into western OK just before 03-05Z Sunday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 80s in the eastern Panhandles to upper 90s in the western Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Strong H850 WAA will result in many locations reaching 100-105 degrees for highs on Sunday in the Texas Panhandle. In particular for PDC, heat headlines may be needed if trends for 105+ continues. A cold front should traverse the Panhandles Sunday night. Along the front, we will have to watch for additional thunderstorm chances, where severe storms will be possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazard with any severe storms that form. Temperatures Monday through the end of the long term forecast period in the wake of the front will be near to above average. Going through next week, a closed high will eventually set up over SW NM/SE AZ as seen from the latest 19/12Z model and numerical guidance. This will set up the main NW-SE steering flow with nearly daily chances for storms to develop in NM/CO high terrain and move SE into the Panhandles along notable H500 perturbations. Coverage will change each day, and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms cannot also be ruled out each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the next 24 hours. Cannot rule out MVFR ceilings to move into Amarillo, but the chance appears to be low at this time. Winds will become breezy on Saturday of the south.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.