textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Dry conditions and no weather related travel impacts are expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day for the Panhandles.

- A pattern shift this weekend into next week will likely lead to much cooler temperatures and the potential for wintry precipitation.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

An H500 trough is forecast to move across the Dakotas on Tuesday with the southern periphery of the front moving across the southern High Plains. This trough will propel southward during the day and should reach the Panhandles by mid morning. Breezy to gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. The push of cold air behind the front is not all that strong, but highs on Tuesday should remain in the 50s. Winds will decrease going into Tuesday night and strong radiational cooling will lead to lows below freezing area wide.

The slightly cooler air mass will remain in place over the Panhandles on Wednesday. Another day with highs in the 50s are expected with winds turning to out of the south by the afternoon hours. Some cloud cover will be in place over the region during the day, but no precip is expected with the PVA associated with the trough well to the north of the CWA. Another night of below freezing temperatures is currently expected for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Upper level ridging is forecast to prevail on Thanksgiving and into at least parts of Friday. Thanksgiving day looks to be a very nice day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles! Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 50s with winds around 10 mph or less and mostly clear skies. Thanksgiving night into Friday morning should have lows in the 30s to upper 20s.

Attention continues to be with the well advertised pattern shift this upcoming weekend into next week. There are still significant differences in the model guidance, but what is known is that a strong cold front will push south across the Plains sometime this weekend or early next week. An initial push of cold air is forecast on Friday night into Saturday with the first cold front, which will lead to cooler temperatures this upcoming weekend. As of now, it looks like the high temperatures this weekend should remain above freezing, but there are a subset of ensembles (including AI based deterministic guidance) that suggest highs on Sunday may remain below freezing. A second, much stronger cold front should move across the region early next week. There is a very wide range in potential temperatures behind this front and looking at the model guidance and forecast synoptic pattern, cannot completely rule out record cool highs or record lows will be broken to start December. The NBM is notoriously bad with forecasting high temperatures with major pattern shifts like this, so would not be surprised if temperatures this weekend into next week are below the current forecast.

In addition to the cold air mass, a strong low pressure system is forecast to dig southward towards the Desert Southwest. Just how this trough and low pressure system evolve beyond that is highly uncertain. This system may bring the first chances for wintry precipitation to the southern High Plains. What precipitation type will depend upon when this system moves towards the region and what the temperatures are, which each of these elements are highly uncertain. The details should become more clear as we approach this weekend.

Muscha

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light west to northwest winds are forecast overnight before a cold front shifts winds to out of the north late this morning. Winds behind the front could have gusts upwards of 30-35 kts at the sites. Winds will decrease back down to 10 kts or less at the end of this TAF cycle. Mostly clear skies are expected.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.