textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Dry conditions and no weather related travel impacts are expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day for the Panhandles.

- A pattern shift this weekend into next week will likely lead to much cooler temperatures and the potential for wintry precipitation.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Quiet, drier, seasonal weather conditions will stick around over the Panhandles through tomorrow, with highs in the 50s & 60s. Synoptically, we're under northwest flow as this past weekend weather system lifts towards the Midwest, helping a pair of cold fronts pass over the region. Tomorrow's cold front will be similar to today's in terms of breezy north winds of 15-25 mph, but will result in slightly cooler temperatures than today (5-10 degrees lower). Drier air has and will have further settled back in across the area behind these fronts, creating favorable conditions for radiational cooling, leading to widespread sub-freezing low temperatures by Wednesday morning.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The mid week forecast holds much of the same, featuring about as ideal of a fall day as you could ask for on Thanksgiving. No precipitation, highs in the 50s, partly cloudy skies, and only a light south breeze. Friday will be a touch warmer and breezier, but still quiet and pleasant.

Much attention and contemplation in our world of weather is being occupied by and poured into the quandary of what to expect late this weekend into early next week. During this time frame, global models provide greater confidence in a colder and active stretch going into December. There is much uncertainty, but numerous data sets point in favor of anomalously cooler temperatures arriving behind a cold front next Sun-Mon, lasting to mid next week (as much as 15 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages). Latest outputs would suggest this equates to highs in the 40s, and lows in the teens to 20s, but there are indications that temperatures could trend even colder.

While doubts about the cold air decrease, mentions of wintry precipitation have increased in tandem. Current synoptic projections place a large scale, positively tilted trough axis to our west, with southwest flow stretching across the southern CONUS early next week. This pattern would allow for colder Canadian air masses to move in, while also pulling Pacific moisture back to the region. With these factors in mind, and assuming any hypothetical system tracks favorably, precipitation chances would be expected to increase (currently 20-30% Sun-Mon). The critical question then becomes, "What would the precipitation type be?". If a deep enough push of cold air arrives and becomes further reinforced through the week, snow would certainly be in play, and in fact would be the most favored outcome. If southwest flow in the mid- levels is able to maintain a mid-layer warm nose though, we will need to monitor the present possibility for a wintry mix of precip types to be in play. If precipitation truly comes to fruition, regular rain is currently one of the least likely outcomes. There is still an abundance of time for models to change their tune, so please continue to check back for updates on this very fluid forecast.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all sites over the next 24 hours (once MVFR ceilings clear over KGUY). Breezy northwest winds of 15-25 kts will subside later tonight, and then resume out of the north towards the end of the period behind a passing cold front.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.