textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue today. Fire weather headlines are expected to linger through the week. Any fires that develop will have the potential to spread rapidly.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The lee side surface low continues to be anchored over southeast Colorado during the short term period. H850 winds will not have much trouble mixing down to the surface for the rest of today and tomorrow. The low level jet (LLJ) will restrengthen tonight, keeping winds breezy through the early morning hours. By Monday afternoon, a 25-35 kt LLJ should still be present over the CWA. Today, the wind direction is primarily southwesterly. By tomorrow, a more south- southwesterly component is expected in the wind flow. Given the strength of our winds today, we will continue to advect warmer temperatures through the region. 70 degree highs are expected areawide today.

Tomorrow, models show a surge of moisture moving in from the south. Though forecast soundings still display a fair amount of dry air at the midlevels, our dewpoint temperatures should be high enough to aid in achieving higher minimum relative humidity at the surface. 12Z CAMs struggle to place precipitation in the FA tomorrow due to some persistence of subsidence. The southern Texas Panhandle has the best shot at rainfall, though QPF remains quite minimal. Clouds are the more likely outcome from this moisture influx; and with increasing sky coverage, highs will still be in the 70s and lower 80s tomorrow afternoon.

For additional fire weather details, see the FIRE WEATHER discussion below.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Upper level ridging continues at the forefront of the extended, though our next upper level low pressure system is anticipated to overtake the High Plains by the end of the workweek. The warm axis of H850 temperatures shifts eastward over the CWA Tuesday through Thursday. 90s return across much of the combined Panhandles on Wednesday and may even persist into Thursday for the southeast Texas Panhandle. As long as winds remain strong at the surface, fire weather conditions will prevail through this time frame.

Moisture may stay limited for the next several days. Long range model attempt to show some sort of reflectivity in our east on Wednesday, but the lack of consistency seems to prevent the NBM from increasing PoPs. 1-3 km forecast Theta-E profiles show the moisture axis shifting eastward out of our area as the week progresses. If this trend holds, PoPs will shift east as well.

Rangel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours at all sites. Surface winds today will continue strongly across the region. After sunset, wind speeds will decrease but remain breezy overnight. By tomorrow morning, strong winds will revamp over the FA. The wind direction is expected to back slightly from southwest today to southerly tonight. Low level wind shear is possible at all sites this evening, but winds are more likely to stay strong at the surface instead of remaining aloft. We've left mentions out of the current TAF period, but they could be added in a future package if confidence increases.

Rangel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue today due to strong southwesterly winds and very low relative humidity (RH). No major changes were made for forecast conditions today. Strong, southwesterly winds prevail at the surface with the Texline mesonet already gusting above 40 mph. A few other sites have already gusts close to 35 mph as well. Most RFTI values so far this afternoon range between 3-5. with a few locations in the north reaching 6 and 7. Critical fire weather conditions will subside by 8 PM this evening, but elevated conditions may persist for a few hours afterwards.

Tomorrow, increasing dewpoints will allow RH to stay above 20% for most of the combined Panhandles. Elevated conditions are still possible as surface winds restrengthen in the afternoon, but critical fire weather will be more difficult to achieve.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.