textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Potentially damaging winds are expected behind a cold front tomorrow, with wind gusts over 60 mph expected leading to reduced visibility due to blowing dust and difficult travel conditions. Power outages are expected.

- The strong winds and low relative humidity will support critical fire weather conditions tomorrow with a sudden wind shift with the frontal passage in the morning. Any fires on the landscape could exhibit high resistance to control and spread south rapidly.

- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are forecast on Sunday night - Monday morning.

- Record highs could occur today and again late next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Evidence of potent upper trough currently showing up on latest GOES water vapor imagery across the Great Basin region. This trough is expected to become highly amplified as it digs south across the rocky mountains and adjacent plains through tomorrow. Latest models and ensemble guidance have been honing in on a shortwave ejecting out along the southeast side of this trough, with very strong H5 jet max of 90 to 100kts crossing the Panhandles through the daylight hours tomorrow. This occurs as a cold front surges south with significant sfc height rises of 3-5 mb/hr from about 12z to 21z. Strong cold air advection will ensue behind the front and help mix down strong winds aloft, with 50 to 60 knot winds advertised in low level jet in the 850 to 700mb layer (strongest across the eastern Panhandles). The combination of strong pressure rises and mixing of winds aloft will promote very strong to damaging winds at the surface across the entire combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles starting as early as 12z in the far north to around 15z in the south, and lasting through early evening. The strongest winds will likely occur between 15z and 21z, and this is when there is a low chance (10-20%) to see wind gusts over 70mph in a few locations, likely favoring areas higher in elevation but still not too far removed from the strongest low level jet winds in the east (Stinnett, Sunray, Guymon, Amarillo, and Pantex are a few sites that come to mind).

With the strong winds, dust causing low visibility will almost certainly be a problem. We do have guidance suggesting dust sources up in northwest KS into NE, including recent burn scars, but of greater concern will be local dust sources such as dry fields that are not planted and not watered. This can lead to sudden and dramatic reductions in visibility. As such, have issued a blowing dust advisory for the whole area for tomorrow.

With the strong CAA, there have been some weak signals for some very light precipitation across the northern combined Panhandles briefly behind the cold front, but the moisture is very limited and almost non-existant in the low levels, so measurable precipitation is not expected. If CAA is strong enough, some snow flurries can't be ruled out. In any case, temperatures will be very uncomfortable tomorrow with most locations not increasing much from overnight lows, staying in the 40s to low 50s before quickly decreasing late tomorrow as the winds decrease into the evening. Wind chills tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s by afternoon, and while winds will become light overnight, there may be enough to see some single digit and teens wind chills by early Monday morning.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Monday will be cool with temperatures below normal in the post frontal environment with northwest flow aloft. This northwest flow will persist as high pressure builds across the Desert Southwest and greatly expands through next weekend. This high pressure will lead to a notable warming trend, with potentially record breaking high temperatures towards the end of the week. The latest raw ensemble guidance (LREF) is showing 50th percentile afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s with 90th percentile values in the low 90s by Friday. Meanwhile, 50th percentile H5 heights of 594dm are indicated over the Desert Southwest Thursday into Friday, before slightly weakening and shifting east through the weekend.

Ward

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

As of this afternoon, a scatter to broken deck of upper-level clouds is currently making their way across the Panhandles. At this time, this deck is not expected to have any impacts to the terminals with VFR conditions expected through midnight. Where bigger concerns lie are with the incoming system to our northwest and the associated front that is following it. This system has great upper-level support that will likely see low-level winds shear present through the overnight, which will eventually bleed down into very strong winds at the surface during the day. These winds may also result in blowing dust at the terminals, but impacts may be little to nothing given that dusts sources are much smaller to our north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Warm and very dry conditions will continue to support elevated to low-end critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Panhandles this afternoon. Highest RFTIs of 3-4 are forecast across the west-northwest combined Panhandles where relative humidity values could fall as low as 5-10% in the presence of 10-20 mph southwest winds. Similarly dry air will exist elsewhere across the area, but lighter winds are favored which would support mostly elevated fire weather.

Despite cooler temperatures, dry and very windy conditions will promote critical fire weather across the Panhandles tomorrow. Sustained north winds of 35-45 mph with gusts of 55-65+ mph will combine with minimum RH values of 15-20% to create RFTIs of 3-5 for much of the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Driest conditions are forecast further west across the Panhandles, while stronger winds are forecast further east. Regardless, the strong winds and gusts will be the main proponent for promoting dangerous conditions for potential fire spread Sunday afternoon. Any fires on the landscape ahead of the cold front tomorrow morning could become highly resistant to control as the front moves through with rapid spread to the south.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>003-006- 007.

Red Flag Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020-317.

Blowing Dust Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020-317.

High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020- 317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.

Blowing Dust Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.

High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.