textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding tonight across the Panhandles.

- Low chances for rogue storms Thur and Fri afternoons, but better storm chances return to the Panhandles on Saturday.

- Warmer and drier conditions are trending more likely next week across the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

As storms continue to progress across the western and central Panhandles, a risk for strong winds, small hail, and torrential downpours will persist until they dissipate through the early morning hours. Localized flooding potential will need to be monitored for these locations in the meantime. Once the environment becomes overworked and better lift exits the region, storms should die off across our eastern counties this morning.

Latest trends point to much of Today being a recovery day for the region after storms exit this morning. As highs rise into the mid 80s to low 90s, a subtle, weak disturbance may reach the Panhandles by this afternoon-evening with potential to generate another round of spotty showers and storms, but confidence in this occurring is still relatively low and decreasing, as it is unlikely the atmosphere can recover sufficiently (10-20% POPs across the far southern TX Panhandle).

Friday has looked like our next opportunity for better precipitation, but trends are looking more grim due to synoptic conditions becoming less favorable. The upper trough responsible for our chances looks to stay further south, blocking better moisture and energy from pushing over the Panhandles. However, the southern TX Panhandle will still be positioned close enough to an H700 low for some rogue showers or storms across our southern counties in the afternoon and overnight hours (20-30% POPs). Regardless, expect highs in the 80s to mid 90s across the region.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Models have maintained the notion that the synoptic pattern will favor active weather for the Panhandles on Saturday. Global guidance depicts troughing lifting north-northeast over the High Plains, maintaining appreciable moisture transport to the region in tandem with large-scale lift. As any disturbances arrive to the Panhandles, PWATs likely remain in the 90th percentile (>1"), with ample low level moisture (50s and 60s dew points) and highs in the 80s. These conditions should support 20-50% POPs primarily across the south and eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Saturday. As we've seen a lot lately, activity will likely be scattered in nature rather than widespread, so some locations could see heavy rain while others see nothing.

Going into next week, models now have increased agreement that an "Omega Block" pattern sets up atop the plains, with upper level high pressure settling in from the south Plains to the Midwest. Although rogue opportunities for precipitation could materialize any given day, this trend has only increased the likelihood of warmer and drier conditions. Highs in the 90s will be more common each day Sunday through Wednesday, with precipitation chances less than 15%. Probabilities for highs greater than 100 degrees Monday through Thursday have started to increase, now solidly in the 20-40% chance range each day. Despite some of these days having breezier winds, minor to moderate heat risk conditions will be in place for much of the Panhandles each day. Looks like our first real heat wave of the summer may be in store.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours. Light winds this morning will become breezy and south-southwesterly by the late morning into the early afternoon. This wind flow is expected to continue through sunset. Afterwards, winds will return to a light, southerly flow.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.