textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Low chance ~10% of storms in the southern Panhandle this evening.

- Hot temperatures continue with a high likelihood >70% chance that heat products will need to be issued for at least portions, if not all the Panhandles each day through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Latest wind obs and radar reflectivity shows a boundary across the southern Panhandles. An isolated storm or two is trying to form on that boundary, but is not expected to last long. Otherwise, scattered storms off the mountains and in southern CO/KS may work their way into the northern Panhandles overnight and into the early morning hours. While showers look to be on a downward trend, there is a subtle wave expected to move through between midnight and sunrise and that's why we may still have some general storms overnight, mainly in the north.

A very weak cold front that really is just going to knock us back 3 to 6 degrees from where we've been for the highs today. This will help keep light winds out of the north. While it will still be a hot day with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s, we may be able to avoid the Heat Advisory, but it's going to be close in Palo Duro Canyon. While the overall northerly flow is not favorable for storm development, there may be a weak surface low that sets up this evening in the south and there's indication that we could have some convergence right along I-40 and maybe storms could develop along that boundary after 7pm this evening.

That should be about it for the storm activity for today and tonight. As we head into Friday the center of the high shifts further east and it will be hotter, with nearly widespread temperatures in the 100 to 105 range. The chances of precipitation look minimal, but there's always a chance at a pop up storm due to how hot it will get just about anywhere, but even then it's less than 10 percent so not even mentionable in the forecast at this point.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Saturday is looking very tricky and potentially up in the air as to how things could go. On one hand it has the potential to be a carbon copy of Friday, only hotter, so much that nearly all the Panhandles would need heat highlights, but there is a hint that the upper level trough over the Great Lakes that expands down to Florida may have enough influence for a back door cold front, and by that it's really just a modified hot airmass, where highs would still be well into the 90s and maybe the lower 100s for the far southwest areas, but with that front, perhaps we get some moisture riding along that northwest flow that clips the Panhandles, allowing for at least a low chance (20-30 percent) of showers/storms. Again there may be another area of convergence along the southern Panhandles that allows for isolated to scattered storms to pop along that boundary Saturday evening.

Sunday through Wednesday we do gradually toy with the ridge attempting to break down, but still remain mostly under it's influence, however that does bring added chances of showers and storms, at least to the northern Panhandles. The NBM pops for the extended to reflect this as they gradually increase each day and spread further south each day. Temperatures should peak on Monday with widespread 100s, but with increased precipitation chances each day and the gradual breakdown of the ridge highs by next Wednesday may fail to reach 100 in just about all locations.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Lingering scatter to broken cloud decks are expected to hold through the morning hours. However, CIGs should stay VFR at the terminals with skies becoming clear by the afternoon. Present CAMs do continue to see the potential for some isolated storms across the Southern Texas Panhandles during the late afternoon and early evening. However, chances of impact (10% or less) to KAMA remain too low for mention in the current TAF package. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to hold through the next 24 hours.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020-317.

OK...None.