textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Heat related illnesses may occur for those that are outside through this evening across the Panhandles due to the historically hot temperatures.

- Any outdoor activities that may create sparks or flames are not recommended today through Sunday evening due to elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

- Near record breaking temperatures may occur once again in the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The center of an H500 high pressure system is moving east across Arizona towards New Mexico today. The main axis of the upper level ridge should move over the Panhandles today which will lead to stronger WAA in the lower levels. This is already being observed late this morning, with temperatures already reaching the lower 90s across portions of Texas Panhandle. Triple digit temperatures are appearing more likely given this scenario for some locations and the historic heat will lead to record breaking temperatures, potentially breaking the month of March record high as well. The highest wind potential has been on a decrease today as models are hinting at the surface trough moving in across the west and eventually the central Panhandles during the mid to late afternoon time frame. Still would not be surprised to see some gusts up to 25-30 mph though. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected due to the very hot and dry conditions.

The well advertised cold front is still expected to move across the Panhandles on Sunday morning. The front is expected to start moving in around or shortly before sunrise and may be south of the CWA by early afternoon. Gusty north to northeast winds are expected in the wake of the front with gusts as high as 35-40 mph. These winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions once again. In addition to the winds, a cooler air mass will move in on Sunday and a 20 degree or so temperature gradient is forecast over the Panhandles as a result. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are forecast across the north whereas the south heats up into the upper 80s. Winds are expected to slowly decrease Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows Monday morning will feel quite cool especially after being so hot the last few days with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s across the northern half of the area.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Zonal flow looks to prevail across the High Plains on Monday before another high pressure ridge develops mid week. While the zonal flow is in place, temperatures will be cooler on Monday in the wake of the frontal passage on Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s across the region. Even though these temperatures are cooler than most of this forecast, they are still a few degrees above average for mid/late March. Winds will be out of the south but relative humidity values look to be above fire weather thresholds at this point.

High pressure sets up across the southern/southwestern CONUS once again during the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to record breaking high temperatures once again for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures will gradually increase from Tuesday through Thursday as the center of high pressure moves from the Desert Southwest to central/southern Texas. A very warm air mass will move in during these days leading to widespread highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s and some triple digit heat cannot be ruled out once again. With high pressure in place, winds will not be the strongest, but if breezy winds can occur on the days with RH values in the single digits, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will arise.

There continues to be tremendous model disagreement on when the ridge breaks down once again, but that will occur at some point late next week. As this occurs, another cold front is forecast to propel southward over the Plains and should bring cooler air down across the Panhandles. Just when that occurs and how strong the cold air push behind the front varies in the guidance, so forecast confidence Thursday and beyond remains low. The overall trend does favor cooler temperatures Friday into next weekend however.

Muscha

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out of the south to southwest this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts at the sites. Winds will remain around 10-15 kts most of the night but will become more westerly ahead of a cold frontal passage early on Sunday morning. Behind the front on Sunday, winds will become north to northeasterly with gusts up to 25-35 kts behind the front. Mostly clear skies are expected.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon through Sunday evening across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

For today...historically hot temperatures are already being observed with temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Highs this afternoon are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s and a few locations potentially reaching the triple digit mark for the first time this year. The heat combined with dry surface conditions will result in relative humidity values dropping down to as low as 4 percent across the entire area. Winds will not be the strongest thankfully, but still will be breezy out of the southwest around 15-20 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph. The dry and breezy conditions will result in Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values upwards of 4-5.

For this evening through Sunday morning...winds will remain out of the southwest to west all night and could remain upwards of 10-15 mph across the Panhandles ahead of the cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. The winds will aid in keeping overnight lows on the warm side in the 50s, which will result in very poor relative humidity recover. The max humidity values on Sunday morning may only reach 15-25 percent across the area. The southwest to west winds combined with the poor humidity recovery will lead to elevated fire weather conditions continuing from this evening through Sunday morning.

For Sunday...a cold front will race south over the Panhandles on Sunday morning, resulting in gusty north winds behind the front. High temperatures will range from the low 70s across the north to upper 80s across the south due to colder air moving in behind the front. Even though relative humidity values will increase behind the front, the strong winds combined with very dry grasses will lead to critical fire weather. RFTI values on Sunday could be as high as 4 to 5, with the highest values across the south where temperatures will be warmer.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020-317.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.