textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and Saturday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, but very localized flooding will be possible.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms have been occurring this morning across the eastern combined Panhandles with a front in the process of stalling across the northern combined Panhandles. Expecting clouds behind the front to persist through the day, though some breaks in the clouds can be expected. The combination of the cool airmass and cloud cover will keep highs cooler than normal behind the front while warmer than normal temperatures, in the 80s, can be expected ahead of the front. Although mid-level forcing for ascent is weak, as the baroclinic boundary sharpens this afternoon, we can expect at least some attempts at convective initiation along the front. A complicating factor today involves dry air advection aloft; ALPW satellite imagery shows a pocket of drier air from 850mb to 700mb, but especially potent in the 700mb to 500mb layer, in northwestern Texas. This pocket of drier air is expected to be advected northward into the eastern combined Panhandles this afternoon. This dry air entrainment could cause storms to struggle to develop at least in the eastern combined Panhandles. Elsewhere along and south of the front, any storm that can develop will have a very low chance (Category 1 of 5) to become severe. The primary hazards will be damaging winds up to 65 mph and large hail up to the size of ping pong balls. However, forecast soundings north of the front show a very stable airmass. Thus, not expecting strong to severe storms north of the front. Additionally, dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out again today particularly in the western Panhandles where new fire ignitions will be possible. Owing to PWATs between 0.70" to 0.90", and potentially up to 1.10" along and behind the front, and the potential for slow-moving storms along the front, there is a very low chance for flash flooding.

More favorable mid-level forcing will arrive this evening and continue overnight, resulting in another round of storms that will move in from New Mexico. The most favored areas for the nighttime round of storms (70-90%) will be the western and northern combined Panhandles, though there is still a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the central Texas Panhandle.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely continue into Saturday morning before the activity should move out of the Panhandles. Clouds may linger through the morning but pockets of sun could break out in the afternoon. Large-scale mid-level forcing will arrive Thursday afternoon, and if enough destabilization can occur, another round or two of showers and thunderstorms can be expected. The most favored area (80-95%) for thunderstorms will be south of the Canadian River Valley, but there is still a 50-70% chance across the rest of the Panhandles. There has been a downtrend in the instability and wind shear in the afternoon; many models showing less than 1000 J/kg, though there is an outlier (12km NAM) that creates a strip of 1000-1500 J/kg in the eastern Panhandles. Meanwhile, effective shear values are now more in the 20-30 kt range as the stronger upper-level winds have trended slower to arrive.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected Saturday night across the Panhandles. Several CAMs show that instability may actually increase as WAA occurs, and shear may be slightly greater than in the afternoon. Thus, we could see another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into the very early hours of Sunday morning.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An upper-level shortwave will push across west Texas as a surface low develops in the Central Plains. Breezy southwesterly winds will develop across the area that will usher in dry air across at least the western and central Panhandles. A dryline will set up somewhere from the eastern Panhandles to western Oklahoma by mid-afternoon, and wherever it sets up, thunderstorms are favored to develop. Unfortunately, the typical model biases are showing up for Sunday; the GFS is more aggressive with pushing the dry air east while the NAM is furthest west. As usual, an in-between solution is more likely such as the 00z operational ECMWF. If thunderstorms do develop in the Panhandles, there will be ample instability thanks to steep mid-level lapse rates and modest low-level moisture. Any thunderstorm that can develop will develop quickly and potentially become strong to severe before moving into Oklahoma. Wind shear looks to be on the marginal side, around 25-35 kts effective shear, therefore supercells cannot be ruled out. If the dryline stays far enough west, large hail up to 2" in diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible. Low-level wind shear will be very weak in the afternoon, and not expecting storms to stay in the eastern Panhandles by the early evening hours when low-level wind shear increases. Otherwise, depending on how much rain falls Friday night through Saturday night, elevated to low-end critical fire weather conditions will be possible.

Another upper-level trough will move into the Western CONUS on Monday and a sub-1000mb surface low will develop throughout the day. Expecting 15-30 mph sustained winds (stronger in the northwest, weaker in the southeast) with gusts up to 40 mph. With relative humidity values around 8% to 20% (lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast), elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Again, though, this will depend on how much rain falls beforehand.

The trough will continue to move eastward going into Tuesday, but there are timing differences between operational and ensemble models. Regardless, breezy winds are expected once again on Tuesday across most of the area. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible with the previously stated nuance still applicable.

Winds will be weaker on Wednesday and Thursday as the Panhandles embarks on a warming trend.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

MVFR conditions are ongoing at KGUY while VFR prevails elsewhere. Thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon at KDHT, and this evening at KGUY and KAMA. Although confidence is lower at KGUY and KAMA, confidence is still there to include a PROB30 at this time. Otherwise, KGUY is expected to remain in MVFR ceilings for most of the next 24 hours.

Vanden Bosch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.