textproduct: Amarillo

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

-Daily thunderstorms for the Panhandles from Thursday into early next week, where some storms could be on the strong side.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

After a hot Wednesday afternoon with widespread temperatures to reach 100 or higher, a cold front will begin to move south through the Panhandles starting overnight tonight and likely to move south of the Texas Panhandle by mid morning Thursday morning. In the wake of the cold front, north to northeasterly winds will get a bit breezy, sustained 20-25 mph with higher gusts, especially areas on the Caprock. Meanwhile, rain chances closes to the departing front in the SE TX Panhandle may first see chances of showers and storms late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours. In the wake of the main cold front, latest 12-15Z hi-res and numerical data shows an H700 trough traversing north to south through the Panhandles tomorrow night. Along and downstream of the trough axis, we could see enough lift for elevated showers and thunderstorms to develop Thursday. We should be pretty capped, but latest vertical profiles showing pronounced mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg in the most aggressive data. Surface based instability Thursday night will be little to none, but watching mid level activity closely, as overnight Thursday into Friday morning could be active for some strong thunderstorm potential. High temperatures behind the front on Thursday will drop to below average with highs in the 70s and 80s, with more widespread 70s possible, if the cloud cover is predominant most of the day tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Anemic H500 zonal flow Friday into the weekend for the Panhandles should keep most of the southern TX Panhandle dry. For the northern Panhandles, closer to the more pronounced mid to upper level steering flow jet, this should assist in daily diurnal convection off the CO/NM. The angle of the daily steering flow and the magnitude of the winds will determine how far east into the Panhandles each day the thunderstorm activity will be. By early next week, a developing H500 high pressure in the far SW CONUS will enhance steering flow in the central Rockies, which should increase chances of storms by next week. Above average temperatures will continue this coming weekend into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, at least through the first half and maybe later. There is a low potential for MVFR CIGs at KAMA after 20Z. Winds should prevail out of the NE to E with higher speeds around 20 gust 35 kts after 15Z, especially for KAMA.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ007>020-317.

OK...None.

IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.

textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.