textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Extreme heat is expected in the northeast combined Panhandles and the central Texas Panhandle today. Dangerous heat is forecast with temperatures as high as 111 degrees likely.

- Low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) remain in effect for the northwestern Panhandles this evening and tonight.

- Hot temperatures will continue for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Extreme heat is expected to unfold across the northeast combined Panhandles and the central Texas Panhandle, alongside Palo Duro Canyon. Based off biased corrected models; 00Z CAMs; and the 01Z NBM; temperatures should meet or exceed 110 degrees this afternoon, leading to dangerous heat across areas under the Extreme Heat Warning. Temperatures are more borderline in the northeastern TX Panhandle, but they are already expected to reach 108 based off ambient temperatures. 00Z HREF and REFS probs still show chances as high as 40% to reach 110 across those counties. This is largely thanks to the influence of the Canadian River Valley, but the Extreme Heat Warning is also being driven by the impacts of our consecutive >105 degree days and extreme (4/4) to major (3/4) heat risk in those counties. Elsewhere, chances are lower to reach 110 degrees. However, most short term models display 850 temperatures and maximum temperatures that support >=105 degree highs across the rest of the CWA.

A surface low in southeast Colorado and coinciding shortwave are expected to eject eastward this evening across the High Plains. With afternoon convection forming off the high terrain in New Mexico and Colorado this afternoon, there will be some forcing for showers and thunderstorms to move into the northwestern combined Panhandles. The main time frame is expected to be this evening through the overnight hours. CAPE and wind shear profiles are forecast to be weak in our area today, so showers and thunderstorms may have trouble sustaining themselves once they form. Still, with the passing of the shortwave tonight, some isolated activity is anticipated.

Tuesday is not expected to have the same broad extreme heat headlines as today. Some locations still have the potential to reach 110 tomorrow afternoon, but these cases are expected to be more isolated. Most highs will stay in the mid 100s, while the western Panhandles may only reach the lower 100s thanks to potential morning convection and lingering cloud cover. Heat products are still anticipated, but there is some uncertainty whether they are needed for the entire FA.

Rangel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The effects of upper level high pressure continue in the extended period. The main idea for the rest of the week and next weekend still comprise of a slight and gradual decrease in high temperatures with favorable rain chances confined largely in the northwest combined Panhandles.

As the upper ridge steadily shifts west and heights decrease, maximum temperatures will retrograde from mid 100s to lower 100s and eventually upper 90s heading into the weekend. That said, some local hot spots in our CWA will are still expected to hold onto triple digit heat throughout the long term period. Locations like Palo Duro Canyon, Boys Ranch, and Borger (towns near the Canadian River Valley) have a high chance to achieve high temperatures greater than 100 degrees for more than 15 consecutive days.

Isolated to scattered showers are still forecast to affect the northwest combined Panhandles this week due to our northwest flow regime. There may be a couple of days where PoPs expand further south and east, but that will depend on potential shortwaves or outflow, alongside minimal inhibition, to regenerate convection further into our CWA.

Rangel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. It will continue to be very hot across the panhandles with all terminals having increased density altitudes.

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AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006- 011>020.

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005- 007>010-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.