textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Mostly dry and breezy conditions expected to prevail through Wednesday, with rain chances potentially returning Thursday night through next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

It's been a snoozy Sunday for the Panhandles, as quieter weather has settled in for the region. Morning satellite and mesoanalysis depict ridging aloft breaking down atop the southern Plains making way for flow to become more zonal. The upper level pattern should become even more zonal tomorrow, as models show troughing and ridging further deamplifying. This pattern promotes partly cloudy skies with highs near seasonal averages in the 60s and 70s. Overnight lows will stay mild or cool in the 40s and 50s the next couple of nights, bringing an end to any frost concerns. Winds will stay breezy out of the south at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts up to 30 mph, but will not be as blustery as the past couple of days for the Panhandles.

Precipitation potential late Monday into early Tuesday still appears quite lackluster, as models have come to realize that despite improving mid-level moisture, upper level lift will be rather weak. This still supports about 10% chances for very pitiful stray showers/storms, but confidence in it raining is waning.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Medium-long range model data is currently in rather fair agreement regarding the synoptic evolution through mid week. Zonal flow will reamplify into southwest flow and week ridging over the region as a deepening low pressure system approaches the western seaboard. In general, weather across the Panhandles will be more or less uneventful. Mild temperatures in the 70s to low 80s will recur each afternoon, with warmest days expected Wed and Thu. A tighter surface pressure gradient will keep winds typically breezy for Panhandle standards, out of the south-southwest at 15-25 mph gusting around 35 mph daily.

Later in the week, global guidance is focusing on the aforementioned deepening low to eventually eject over the Plains late this week into next weekend. Ample disagreement exists on the exact track and timing of this system, but early indications support the return of better moisture and rain chances to the Panhandles. Latest trends point to better lift being in place over New Mexico, while better moisture will be focused atop the Panhandles. In general, this places relatively higher confidence in rain chances over the western combined Panhandles. However, if we can hold onto moisture as the system lifts over the Panhandles through the weekend, deterministic and ensemble outputs suggest we could see more widespread coverage of rainfall.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10-20 kts this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds will become more light and variable towards the end of the period at KDHT and KGUY.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.