textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Chances of strong to severe thunderstorms remain present across the Western Panhandles for today and Friday.

- Hot and dry conditions could lead to elevated fire weather concerns this weekend.

- Hot temperatures will be present again next week, but will include chances of storms each evening.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A weak surface boundary earlier this morning allowed for some isolated storms across the Northeastern and North Central Panhandles. However, these storms have been slowly dying off as we continue into afternoon. The death of these storms is mostly likely due to the expected pocket of dry air finally moving into mid-level of the atmosphere and creating subsidence across the Panhandles. This subsidence is going to be key for the activity later tonight as it could lead to the expected storms pushing off the Southern Front Range dying well before they get here. At this time, this does seem to the more favored solution of the CAMs with most only expecting a brief brush with these storms later this evening. Despite the decreased likelihood of storm chances there are still some elements that we cant simply ignore. One of the biggest being the potential DCAPE values that could be present in our west. At this time, latest CAMs have seen these values range from 1500 to upwards of 2000 J/kg, which would be enough for even a small storm to produce a damaging outflow wind gust upwards of 70 mph. Add into this potential some MLCAPE values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg that could still be lingering, and those gusts may have the potential to be even stronger.

Moving into Friday, present CAMs do see similar conditions to today present with best chances of storms mostly focused across our western state line. However, some CAMs have hinted at some interesting opportunities for more widespread activity. These opportunities come in the form of lingering outflow boundaries from another round overnight storms to our east. Should these boundaries survive the trip, then it would be possible get storms to start further east that would then spread further west. With CAMs calling for upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the Southern Panhandles tomorrow, the instability is present for it happen. Still, this not too likely given the expected cap of dry air, with present chances only around 10 to 20 percent. Regardless, any storm that does form will look to have the chances to be strong to severe with wind gust upwards of 70 mph being the primary threat once again. Otherwise, hot temperatures continue on for the Panhandles, with afternoon highs near or over the triple- digit mark.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

For the vast majority of the extend period, model agreement see the upper-level high pressure system stay situated across the Western United States. For the Panhandles, the positioning of the high puts us in a sort of mixed bag situation where we stay hot and relatively dry, but have the potential see storms move in from the Southern Front Range. As for this weekend, the drier portion of the scenario looks to be more prominent as low-level southerly flow looks to bring in drier air that will also see the more widespread triple-digit temperatures for both afternoon. This flow will also lead to breezier conditions at the surface, which can then lead to some elevated fire weather concerns as well. However moving into next, week does see the chances of storms once again across the Northwestern Panhandles. These chances do look to further grow towards the end of next week, with many models actually seeing the high start to weaken and become disorganized across the Southern Untied States. Either way, look for temperature to keep hot with 90s to triple-digits likely every day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Present CAMs continue to see chances of showers and thunderstorms diminish thanks to a pocket of dry air moving over the Panhandles. At this time best chances are now focused across the western state line, with impacts to terminals unlikely. Still the present model soundings do see high amounts of DCAPE present, which makes a strong outflow wind gust out of even a weak storm not impossible. For now, have decided to leave mention of storms out of the current package, with expectation to stay VFR instead.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.