textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast from Monday through Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Very strong wind gusts are expected on Tuesday and a High Wind Watch remains in affect due to the potential for wind gusts of 60-65 mph.

- Blowing dust may lead to reduced visibility on Tuesday morning through the evening.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

**For the forecast fire weather conditions on Monday and Tuesday, see the Fire Weather section below**

An active week of fire weather concerns begins on Monday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

The ridging pattern will remain in place for Monday which will lead to very warm temperatures by February standards. Low level H850 temperatures are forecast to warm up to 20-21 Celsius across the Panhandles during peak heating on Monday afternoon. These warm low level temperatures will result in highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s region wide. In fact, these highs could break the current record highs for February 16. A leeside surface low pressure system centered across northeastern NM to southeastern CO will tighten the pressure gradient across the Panhandles on Monday afternoon. Breezy southwest winds are forecast with gusts potentially reaching 30-35 mph during the afternoon. The gust potential will decrease on Monday night, but sustained winds will remain around 15-20 mph or greater through the whole night. Very warm lows are expected given the well mixed low levels of the atmosphere.

Tuesday will feature the strongest winds across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as a very strong H500 jet streak increases in strength over the southern High Plains. The surface pressure gradient will tighten even more on Tuesday which will result in widespread high winds with gusts upwards of 60 to 70 mph. The highest winds are forecast to be across the central and west, but still cannot rule out some gusts near 70 further east. One of the main areas of uncertainty is just how much high level cloud cover will remain throughout the day on Tuesday. The longer the cloud cover sticks around, the more heating will be inhibited and thus lesser potential for the strongest winds to mix down to the surface. Given the uncertainty, will keep the High Wind Watch going at this time but will note at least parts of the area will likely need a High Wind Warning due to the highest gust potential. Due to the cloud cover, temperatures will be a bit cooler on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the northwest and up to the lower 80s across the southeast. Similar to Monday night, winds will remain breezy out of the west all night. The low level warmer temperatures are forecast to move off to the east overnight so even though winds will be breezy, lows should drop down into the 40s to 30s.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

**For the forecast fire weather conditions on Wednesday through Friday, see the Fire Weather section below**

Upper level troughing will remain in place across the northwestern CONUS during the middle of this upcoming week with an H300 100-150 kt jet streak seemingly remaining in place across the region. This pattern favors continued fire weather conditions along with breezy to gusty winds. On Wednesday a secondary, albeit slightly weaker, H500 jet max will move across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast soundings do suggest that the wind gust potential associated with this system may lead to high wind gusts upwards of 50-60 mph on Wednesday, so that will be something to monitor in the coming days. Winds on Thursday and Friday do not appear to be as strong as the two days prior, but still will remain breezy. Temperatures during this time period are actually forecast to slowly decrease as troughing becomes more prevalent over the central to northern Plains.

There is model uncertainty with what may occur on Friday night into Saturday as the base of the H500 trough digs south and moves east across the Rockies towards the southern High Plains. Some model guidance is suggesting that there could be enough moisture in place to develop precipitation during this time frame. A cold front could also be associated with this trough as it moves across. Timing, strength, and location of all of these features varies in the guidance so confidence in any scenario at this point is rather low. It does appear that temperatures will decrease going into next weekend with the cooler air mass potentially being in place though.

Muscha

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Low level wind shear is ongoing at KGUY with winds of 40-45 kts around 1-2k ft agl and will last through the night. Winds will remain out of the south to southwest over the next 24 hours with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts during the day. Winds will decrease after sunset but will remain breezy. High cloud cover will increase across the region.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Monday followed by multiple straight days of critical fire weather conditions for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Monday...Breezy to gusty southwest winds are forecast across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Sustained winds are forecast to be upwards of 20-25 mph with gusts reaching 35 mph during the afternoon. The west winds will bring drier air to the area with relative humidity (RH) values dropping down into the lower teens to potentially the single digits across the central and west. Cannot rule out some areas may reach critical fire weather thresholds, but will only mention elevated with this forecast.

Tuesday...Very poor RH recovery is forecast to start the day with RH values only increasing into the lower 30s across the central and west. The west to southwest winds on Tuesday are currently forecast to be the highest for this upcoming week as the jet stream moves over the Panhandles. Widespread high winds are expected with gusts upwards of 55-65 mph (cannot rule out a few gusts close to 70 mph across the northwest) during the late morning into the afternoon. Another day of dry conditions with low RHs is expected and this will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions as a result. Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values could be as high as 7 to 8 (out of 10) during the afternoon. Hot temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are also forecast across the region, with the hottest temperatures across the southeastern Texas Panhandle.

Wednesday through Friday...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue through the rest of the work week for the Panhandles. Winds on Wednesday are not expected to be as high as Tuesday, but they still could have gusts upwards of 45-50 mph. A few rogue gusts upwards of 60 mph cannot be ruled out across the northwestern Panhandles. Winds will remain breezy to gusty on Thursday and Friday, but the higher end gust potential is not currently anticipated on either of these days. Winds each afternoon will be out of the west or southwest. Continued dry surface conditions are almost certain with RH values each afternoon down into at least the teens if not some single digit values (particularly on Wednesday). Critical fire weather conditions will likely arise for at least parts of the region on each of these days.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ001>020- 317.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for OKZ001>003.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for OKZ001>003.