textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Medium to high rain and thunderstorms chances for most of the Panhandles on Sunday and Monday, with also low chance for flash flooding, especially for the NW Panhandles.

-Potential for more rain chances by the end of next work week, favoring the southern TX Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A weather system is moving from the desert southwest across the Great Plains both today and Monday. This has already brought a significant fetch of moisture across the panhandles. The moisture within this fetch has around 1 to 1.25 in of PWAT which puts it near or at record daily high for this time of year. It is important to note that we are in the dry season so it doesn't take the largest amount of moisture to be so climatologically high. As it stands this moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorm that does form to produce heavy rainfall. However, this rain will not be the equal of the rain events we had in september when the PWAT was near to 2 inches. With this ample moisture present over the panhandles the passage of this weather system will bring multiple round of rain showers and thunderstorms. One of these round is already impacting the western panhandles this morning. This round will continue to shift to the east and enter the central panhandles during this mid morning hours. There is some question on how long this round of rain showers and thunderstorms will persist. Some of the older guidance indicated it would cease during the afternoon while newer guidance indicates it will persist through until the evening. This distinction is important as an earlier end time may allow for instability to build during up for the evening round of rain and thunderstorms. If it doesn't stop then instability will not be able to build up for the evening round. As for why this is important the environment will have ample shear and is only lacking instability for the formation of strong to severe thunderstorms. So if we build up that instability that opens the door to such storms that can produce damaging winds, large hail, and even tornados. As it stands it is most likely for the current round of rain showers and thunderstorms to persist so it makes the prospect for any strong to severe storms very low. In either case the second round of rain showers and thunderstorms will most likely generate in the evening and pass across mainly the western to central panhandles. This round seems most likely to wane Monday morning leading to a small calmer period. Then the last round of rain showers and thunderstorms generate Monday afternoon and persisting through to Tuesday morning. This then will come to an end once the weather system departs on Tuesday. Owing to the ample moisture being present through the event it means heavy rain will be a threat. For areas that see multiple round of rain showers and thunderstorms there will be a threat for flash flooding. This is most likely in the western panhandles were the chances of seeing rounds of rainfall are the highest with a lesser threat for the central and eastern panhandles. For overall rain amounts the western panhandles can range from 1 to 2 inches of accumulations while the central to eastern panhandles range from nothing to as high as 1 inch. This will not be a solid shield for rain amounts owing to the shower nature of the heavy rain. So instead there will be a broad area of lower amounts with strips of higher amount within where the rain showers or thunderstorms impacted. Beyond this the passage of the weather system will bring cooler temperatures to the panhandles with highs in the 60s to 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be a dry period following the departure of the weather system and the setup of a zonal to southwest flow. Temperatures during this time will most likely see a rebound back into the 70s to even low 80s.

Then for Thursday into next weekend a large scale trough has better chances than not to deepen across western CONUS. This will allow for moisture to return across the panhandles while introducing broad scale lift. As such the end of the week into the weekend will more likely be a period of wetter weather with rain showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

As of early this morning, present radar was seeing our first band of showers push in across the Western Panhandles. This band as well as few others today, are expected to result in all terminals being impacted by showers and embedded thunderstorms for most of the day. All terminals are expected to bounce between MVFR to IFR conditions with some brief periods of LIFR CIGS. The only expection will be KDHT, where rainfall can get heavy enough to see them drop into LIFR conditions for both visibility and CIGs during the late morning and afternoon time frame. Showers do start to weaken as we head into the overnight hours. However, present CAMs do see CIGs holding at MVFR to IFR conditions for most of the overnight with another band of showers attempting to push in again Monday.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.