textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1020 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Dry and windy conditions continue to trend for next Tuesday and Wednesday maybe even into Thursday, increasing the chances of critical fire weather conditions.

- Tuesday in particular, will be highest concern for both critical fire weather conditions, and high winds.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1020 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Unfortunately, not too much rain over the past 24 hours for the combined Panhandles. Rain totals ranged from virga in the far NW to just over half an inch of rain reported in Collingsworth county. With that said, this will do not much at all to mitigate a weather pattern that favors strong winds and fire weather conditions. However, for the short term forecast period, minus a few pockets of some low to mid level clouds slowly clearing out this afternoon across the northern combined Panhandles, a lovely weekend is in store. High temperatures this afternoon should top out in the mid to upper 50s in the northern Panhandles to mid 60s to around 70 degrees for the southern Texas Panhandle. Surface winds will veer from northerly today to more southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon, which should re-establish LL H850 WAA into the Panhandles. As a result, high temperatures tomorrow will rebound with values ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s across all of the Panhandles under partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1020 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A developing high amplitude sinusoidal synoptic pattern will take shape across the western 1/3 of CONUS as we go throughout the coming long term forecast period. In particular for Tuesday through Thursday, a series of mid level perturbations will eject downstream of the main long wave H500 trough with its axis in the vicinity of southern California. In-conjunction with a vertically stacked jet in the Four Corners vicinity during the aforementioned time period, large scale subsidence within the vertical profile will result in very warm and dry conditions. The net resultant force of the steep height gradient and mixing of stronger winds aloft will result in the potential of some strong wind gusts towards the middle of next week. A combination of strong winds and low RH values will result in some critical fire weather conditions. In particular for Tuesday, wind gusts values as of the current forecast will be as high as 50 to 60 mph with some 90th percentile values potentially in the range of peak gusts of 60 to 70 mph. Winds should slowly decrease after Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period, but still remain rather breezy to near strong at times where winds headlines for much of the coming week is looking more likely. Overall temperatures will remain above average throughout most of the long term period, with a cold front bringing temperatures back to near average towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Some patchy low clouds potentially through 21Z for KGUY, but should stay mainly in the VFR range, even briefly in MVFR range, but not confident enough to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be out of the north at 15-25 kts with gusts around 35 kts at times before diminishing to 5-15 kts after 00Z to the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1020 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday across the majority of the Panhandles. In particular leading up to Tuesday morning, very poor RH recovery is expected with max RH values not expected to exceed past 35 to 40 percent in most of the combined Panhandles. We have also received not much rainfall in the past 24 hours with the highest amounts around 0.5" in the far SE TX Panhandle. This will not do much to mitigate fire weather conditions.

Min RH values Tuesday through Thursday will be as low as 8 to 10 percent. 20 ft winds will be out of the southwest at 30-40 mph on Tuesday, with gusts of 50-60 mph at times. Winds on Wednesday and Thursday will be out of the southwest at 20-30 mph with gusts over 50 mph at times. Max RFTI values on Tuesday will be 6-8, on Wednesday 7-9, and THursday 5-7. ERC percentile values on Tuesday will range from the 50th to near 80th percentile and should max out by Thursday with values ranging from the 55th to 85th percentile. With abundant dry fuels combined with strong winds and low RH values spanning several days, critical fire weather conditions are expected.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.