textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Hot temperatures continue with potential to see widespread triple-digit temperatures Wednesday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase by the mid-week with potential to see activity clear into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Present model agreement continues to see the upper-level ridge and associate high pressure build over the Panhandles this afternoon and evening. With this more stagnate pattern in place, present CAMs have seen any activity developing off the Southern Front Range struggle to actually move off the mountains. This weaker storm motion will likely see most storms dying off well before they reach the Western Panhandles. However, an isolated shower cant be fully ruled out along our western state line late tonight. Similar conditions are likely to persist Tuesday albeit with a 10 to 15 percent of seeing one of these showers reach the far Northwestern Panhandles. Instead focus will be more on the heat with temperatures today looking to rise into the mid to upper 90s by this evening. By Tuesday, look for most of the area to be in the upper 90s with some of our hotter locations looking to near the triple digit mark.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

As we progress into the middle of the week, model do see an upper- level trough try to force its way east from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. While present trends have not portrayed this trough with much strength, most models do see it as enough to force the ridge and its high pressure to retreat back southwest for most of the week. This retreat of the high will allow for the Panhandles to fall back into a more northwesterly upper-level flow pattern, which will then open us up to more short-wave activity clear into the weekend. As it stands, present model runs keep chances of showers and thunderstorms present each day with best chances mostly holding in our north. Thursday in particular, continues to trend as best chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms with models depicting a more potent short-wave pushing across the Central Great Plains that afternoon. Of course the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could be present each day, though the lingering high pressure may keep wind shear low and thunderstorm impacts more focused on winds. Meanwhile, the still lingering high pressure will look to keep temperature hot with most locations looking to stay in the mid to upper 90s for the rest of the week. However in some of our locations like the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, the terrain influence could see temperatures rise to much warmer with potential for heat related products not out of the question. This is especially true for Wednesday, where current trends have seen the potential for widespread triple digit temperatures for the afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High pressure continues to build over the Panhandles over the afternoon, which see the area stay dry over the next 24 hours. Look for all terminals to stay VFR with winds at the surface staying mostly out of the south to southeast.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.