textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast from today through Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Very strong wind gusts are expected on Tuesday and a High Wind Warning remains in affect due to the potential for wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

- Blowing dust may lead to reduced visibility on Tuesday morning through the evening.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

The well advertised high wind day is still looking to come to fruition across the Panhandles on Tuesday. A very strong upper level stacked jet will move over the region which will aid in leading to very strong winds starting after sunrise. The latest forecast soundings suggest that the top of the boundary layer may already have winds of 55-65 mph which could easily mix down to the surface. The very strong west to southwest wind gusts and sustained winds will spread across the Panhandles during the day with most areas likely seeing the maximum gusts upwards of 60-70 mph. These very strong winds will combine with dry conditions at the surface to lead to widespread fire weather conditions for Tuesday. The strong winds may also lead to blowing dust which could greatly reduce visibility. Given this is the first widespread high wind event this season across the southern Plains, the dust source regions are unknown which is the main reason why a Blowing Dust Advisory will not be issued with this forecast. Anyone that is planning on traveling tomorrow, especially in open areas, should be prepared for rapid drops in visibility due to the blowing dust potential. Temperatures will also be very warm for mid February with highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Winds will decrease on Tuesday evening into the night, but once again, sustained winds will remain breezy around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph going into Wednesday morning.

Winds will be a bit lighter on Wednesday, but there will be drier air in place across the Panhandles. This will lead to yet another day of fire weather concerns across the entire area. Winds will once again be out of the west to southwest with the current forecast suggesting sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Blowing dust may once again become a concern even though the winds will not be as strong. Temperatures will cool down a few degrees as well, with forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Breezy west winds are forecast to continue all night going into Thursday morning.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Late this week, upper level troughing is forecast to dig south across the western CONUS and eventually move across the central US. Before that occurs, zonal flow with an H300 jet streak will remain in place over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Thankfully, low level winds are not expected to be as strong as the previous two days, but breezy to gusty conditions should still be expected. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue on both of these days as dry air remains in place at the surface. Temperatures will be on a slow decline during this time frame as troughing begins to allow somewhat cooler air to stream down the Plains. Additionally, a very weak backdoor cold front is expected to move in across portions of the area on Thursday night into Friday. This feature would temporarily switch winds to out of the northeast to east before they likely become southerly once again on Friday.

There are still some models that suggest that precipitation will be possible on Friday afternoon/evening going into Saturday morning across portions of the Panhandles. The models that are producing the light precip are outlier at this time with digging the base of the H500 trough across northern AZ/NM/TX. If the outlier solutions do actually turn out to be correct, cannot rule out some light wintry precip as low level temperatures could be cold enough to support a mixture of precip types. Cooler, closer to average, temperatures are currently expected next weekend before another ridge sets up going into next week.

Muscha

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

High winds are expected to impact all TAF sites late this morning and through the afternoon. Gusts 50kts or greater are expected at all terminals. The dominant wind direction will be from the southwest but become westerly by the evening. As wind speeds decrease after dark, low level wind shear may return over the terminals and should remain in place for the rest of the 12Z period. Surface winds will return to being breezy overnight, and potentially light at times. Generally, winds over 12kts can be expected heading into early Wednesday morning.

Rangel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast each day from Tuesday through Friday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Tuesday...Very poor relative humidity (RH) recovery is forecast to start the day with RH values only increasing into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the central and west. The west to southwest winds on Tuesday are currently forecast to be the highest for this upcoming week as the jet stream moves over the Panhandles. Widespread high winds are expected with gusts upwards of 55-65 mph (cannot rule out some gusts close to 70 mph across the north and west) during the late morning into the afternoon. Another day of dry conditions with low RHs is expected and this will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions as a result. Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values could be as high as 7 to 8 (out of 10) during the afternoon. Hot temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are also forecast across the region, with the hottest temperatures across the southeastern Texas Panhandle.

Wednesday...Yet another warm, dry, and windy day is in store which will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions once again. Winds will still be quite strong, but they will be a bit weaker when compared to Tuesday. The highest gusts are forecast to be upwards of 45-55 mph, with the strongest winds across the northwest. Even though RH recovery will be decent to start the day (45-55 percent), much drier air is expected to move in and RH values will drop down to around 8-15 percent area wide on Wednesday afternoon. Due to the drier air, RFTI value could be slightly higher on Wednesday with the peak values around 7 to 8 (isolated 9). Even though the wind gust potential will decrease going into Wednesday night, sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph will continue into Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue on both of these days due to the dry and windy conditions. Thankfully, winds on these days will continue a slow downward trend but there still could be sustained winds of 20-30 with gusts up to 45 mph. Winds on Thursday may have more of a northwest component before a front moves through during the late afternoon into the evening. Behind the front, winds out of the northeast to east are expected for at least parts of the Panhandles. Winds look to be rather light on Thursday night, but a wind shift could still lead to fires moving a different direction. Winds on Friday should become breezy and southerly once again. The lowest RH values on both days are forecast to be in the teens.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ015-019-020.

OK...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for OKZ001>003.