textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles starting Sunday evening and again on Tuesday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Despite some northeasterly winds this afternoon across the combined Panhandles, H85 temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees C along with large scale subsidence, afternoon highs are expected to be in the 70s this afternoon. Overnight winds are expected to stay primarily easterly. Tomorrow, the surface winds are still expected to become northeasterly behind a backdoor cold front.

As a cold pool sets up to the northeast over KS, the amount of CAA expected to seep into the northeastern Panhandles is still uncertain. General model consensus is the expected cold front tomorrow will stall about halfway through the FA in the afternoon, allowing for areas south of the boundary to warm into the 70s. Still looking at a 20 to maybe even a 30 difference in afternoon highs between Hereford, TX and Beaver, OK. Cloud cover behind the front may impact overall warming as well. Better surface moisture to southeast and east of the FA, along with some potential H7 frontogenesis may have some shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday evening. Confidence is very low, but Wheeler and Collingsworth have been given some 20 PoPs by the NBM, and will leave the slight chances for now. Sunday night, cooler H85 temperatures are expected to dip in and out real quick (as low as 3 to 5 degrees C in Beaver County. At this time, only the OK Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle are expected to fall to 32 degrees or less.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Monday's temperatures continue to be in question with the nature of the backdoor cold front late Sunday. Many of the deterministic models suggest an immediate retreat of the cooler H85 temperatures. The GFS, EC, and CAN all have H85 temperatures rebounding to 18 to 24 degrees C by 00Z Tue, for the central to western parts of the Panhandles. This suggests the western Panhandles may still bounce right back into the 70s and approach 80. H85 temperatures in the east are progged to range from 10 to 18 degrees C, with surface temperatures possibly rising into the 60s. Granted, quite a bit of cloud cover may still keep temperatures a couple to few degrees cooler than the current NBM forecast.

An upper level cutoff low is still progged to traverse the Plains just to the north of the CWA. Leading edge trough dynamics may still bring some precipitation to the far eastern combined Panhandles. However, trends for getting dry slotted over much of the FA continue. This system is progged to bring in another cold front dropping afternoon temperatures about 10 degrees for Wed's highs compared to Tue. Some lower 80s in the south are expected on Tue afternoon with mid to lower 70s in the north. Will likely see a yo- yo in temperatures Tue into Fri, as temps on Thu are progged to recover similar to Tue before dropping on Fri again to be cooler like on Wed.

Thu night another upper level trough is progged to potentially bring some rain to the area once again going into Friday. However, PoPs are favoring the far eastern Panhandles once again. It is too far out to know the details, but it looks persistence is key, and likely the Panhandles will continue to see dryness.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with relatively light northerly winds transitioning to the easterly.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.