textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Warm and dry conditions return this weekend with afternoon temperatures reaching back into the 70s by Monday.

- Elevated to low-end critical fire weather is possible Monday afternoon.

- Pattern change may be on its way with a new system looking to move across Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

A rather dry and quite day to open the first weekend of the new year as present observations see a weak surface high sitting over the Panhandles. This high pressure system has seen winds stay on the light but variable side for most of this morning and afternoon. As it stands, present CAMS dont expect this system to move off until late tonight in correspondence to the upper-level high to our south regaining its strength. Otherwise, look for this quite day to be the start of our next warming trend with afternoon highs once again returning to the mid to upper 60s. Moving into Sunday, does see this dry and warm pattern continue as the upper- level high pressure system settles in again. However at the surface, models do see a weak lee-side low set up and force breezy southwesterly winds for the afternoon. While present models do not expected much in upper-level support for these winds, there still is enough to see speeds pick up to around 15 to 25 mph with gust up to 35 mph not fully out of the question. Thankfully the presence of cloud cover tomorrow should help keep relative humidity values up for the afternoon, which will also keep fire weather conditions low-end elevated at their worst.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

The first full week of the new year looks to start like end of the previous as dry and warm weather continues to hold over the Panhandles. For Monday, primary concern is focused on the potential for elevated to low-end critical fire weather. As it stands, present CAMs expect a lee-side surface low to hold just off the Southern Front Range, which will help keep the Panhandles under southwesterly down-sloping winds. Unlike Sunday, however, the lack of cloud cover present Monday afternoon will allow portions of the Panhandle to dry out more and result in relative humidity values dropping closer to 15%. These drier conditions, alongside still breezy southwesterly winds, could prove enough to keep fire weather conditions at least elevated for the day. However by Tuesday, these conditions do start to wane as the lee- side low begins to move off and the patter starts to shift in favor of a potential trough building off the Southern Californian Coast. Present ensembles do favor this trough progressing east towards the Panhandles by Wednesday. However, impacts from the associated system have been trending on the lower end with present NBM only seeing 10 to 15% chance of any precipitation for our area. Still there is a lot uncertainty present with this system and even the slightest shift could see the chance for the Panhandles increase. Regardless, this system looks to finally break our warm cycle as models see more troughs follow out of the Pacific Northwest to end the week. While there is still too much uncertainty to say if precipitation will follow these troughs as well, confidence is increase that the Panhandles could be closer to 40s by the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Only potential impact of note for the 00z TAF package is marginal LLWS at KGUY tonight into Sunday morning as a stronger LLJ passes overhead. Winds will pick up out of the south tonight at 10-15 kts, increasing out of the southwest tomorrow at 15-25 kts. Otherwise, VFR sky conditions with some mid to high cloud decks are forecast at all sites.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.