textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Hot temperatures prevail through Thursday with typical hot spots (Canadian River Valley, and Palo Duro Canyon) likely (>70% chance) of exceeding 105 as a high, and elsewhere in the 95-105 range

- Daily Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue through Thursday.

- A potential pattern change Thursday through the weekend leading to higher rain chances ( and more seasonal temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Decaying showers in the far west overnight. Winds will stay up in the 8 to 15 mph range overnight, and be mainly south to southwest 15 to 20 mph tomorrow. This will once again promote elevated to near critical Fire Weather conditions as ERC's are quite stressed from limited rainfall and consistent hot temperatures over the past several weeks. Yesterday there was a limited threat for dry lightning that could threaten new fire starts, but that shouldn't be the case today. Storms do look like they will be near the border, but not sure if they will make it into the Panhandles this afternoon. With the upper level pattern very similar to yesterday, but maybe a degree or two cooler, we can expect similar highs to yesterday, but a little less coverage for the Heat Advisory. Still looking at the southeast Panhandles (Wheeler, and Collingsworth County) as a possible add to the current Heat Advisory.

Tuesday again will be very similar to Monday. Temperatures, while still hot, may fall a degree or two, but thats still subject to change, because the overall pattern really hasn't changed, and NBM bias may still have the temperatures down 1 to 3 degrees from what the overall pattern supports, additionally as the high begins to shift further east we are getting a little better chance of precipitation sneaking into the northwest zones, and perhaps we'll get some cloud coverage that might mitigate the temperatures a bit, but for now it looks pretty similar to Monday, including the breezy south winds around 15 mph which would continue the elevated Fire Weather conditions.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Carbon copies of Monday and Tuesday look to occur on Wednesday and somewhat on Thursday. At least from the heat standpoint on Thursday we should be similar. In fact Thursday could turn out to be the hottest day best on the setup, but we are looking at that high pressure being far enough east that now the return south to southwest flow will now start to bring both Gulf and Pacific moisture over the Panhandles and increase those chances of showers and storms, but mainly for the northwest Panhandles. Thursday afternoon we may have an interesting setup. Models are suggesting that we may have residual outflow from storms off the mountains on Wednesday track through the central Panhandles and collide with moist southeast flow during peak heating, which given the hot temperatures and the strong low level convergence that we could get good storm development across the HWY 60 corridor and areas to the north. Still several days out and a lot can change, but moving forward the overall setup of the Panhandles being more on the back side of the upper ridge, and more moist surface flow as well as south to southwest flow aloft would support better thunderstorm chances through the weekend. It may even lead to some increased severe chances, or possible hydro concerns given that storms may be slow movers. Will remind that while precipitation chances will be up and temperatures will be down from our current state, overall the best chances for meaningful rainfall would be the northwest, and anything south and east of HWY 60 is highly in question as to how much or even if rain will occur at all.

Weber

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail with breezy southerly winds. Gusts may reach as high as 25 kts through the period. This morning when winds are calm around 10 kts or less for KGUY and KDHT, some LLWS may be present with 40 to 45 kt winds around 1.5k to 2k ft above the surface.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-010-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.