textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Windy and warm weather will return today. Winds over portions of the area could gust 35-40 mph beginning late this morning with afternoon temps in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Thunderstorms continue to look possible over the central and eastern panhandles on Tuesday afternoon/evening and then persist into Wednesday.

- Significantly cooler weather still expected Friday and Saturday

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Tropical Storm Rachel currently getting ingested into the developing long wave trough over the western U.S. as it nears the Baja / southwestern CA coast. Evening water vapor imagery showing copious moisture spreading inland over the mountain west. High clouds are spilling into the panhandles at this time even though the trough axis is still on the west coast. With the southwesterly flow in place temps will warm into the upper 80's and lower 90s through Monday. A lee side surface low will develop in southeast Colorado and with a tighter pressure gradient gusty winds are expected today. Gusts will be generally 35-40 mph in the north and 30-35 mph in the south. Would not be surprised to see some isolated gusts around 45 mph.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The weather starts to become more interesting by Tuesday afternoon. SPC has continued the slight risk of severe weather over the central and eastern panhandles Tuesday. Models showing pieces of energy from the remnants of former Hurricane Simon moving into west TX Tuesday. The associated subtle shortwave in this southwesterly flow will be moving across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This seems like the most favored time for convective initiation. The RRFS is showing thunderstorms developing just to the northeast and east of AMA at this time. NAM forecast soundings showing CAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg late Tuesday afternoon over mainly the southern and eastern panhandle areas. Will need to monitor this activity for potential severe weather

The main upper low..currently over central Washington..is still slowly digging south and by 12Z Wednesday should be near the 4 corners area according to the NAM. This is a little further south than yesterday and places the jet max closer to the area which will provide more of an impact than just skirting by as it appeared yesterday. Also with the slower positioning of the upper low the dryline will still likely be west of the area on Wednesday and therefore pops are still moderately high across most of the central and eastern panhandles into Wednesday night and then being confined to the southeast Thursday morning.

After the upper low moves northeast, enters the plains and moves away from the area much cooler weather is expected with highs in the lower 60s expected for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will see upper 30s across the northwest with lows in the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all sites through 12z Monday. Winds will be generally out of the southwest around 15-20 kts with gusts occasionally up to 35 kts. Low level wind shear cannot be ruled out later this evening for KDHT and KGUY.

Harrel/Pletsch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.