textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today through Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles.

-Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may form in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday afternoon depending on the location and progression of a dryline.

-Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern combined Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

As of this writing a mid to upper level trough with a positive tilt is moving through the central to southern Great Plains. Some dry air entrainment behind is it expected to clear out the cloud coverage and Amarillo is already seeing nice clear blue skies. A few high clouds continue to linger in the far eastern Panhandles as the stream of moisture moves off to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Today, this trough is brining some subtlety cooler air to the western combined Panhandles where highs are only expected to reach the 70s, 80s in the east. Also, westerly downsloping winds are expected to bring in dry surface air dropping RH values to the 8-15% range this afternoon.

Overnight, RH values are expected to only recover to 25 to 40 percent. This will not help with fire weather conditions going into tomorrow. As this trough exits the area tonight, upper level ridging builds over the FA bringing widespread temperatures in the 80s. Tds in the lower teens stick around for tomorrow and almost the entire FA is expected to see RH values quickly drop into the 5 to 10 percent range. A surface trough is progged to strengthen over the area not only aiding in the dry air, but aiding in some breezy gradient driven winds as well. As a result, almost all of the combined Panhandles are expected to see critical fire weather conditions.

Tomorrow night, a dryline is progged to retreat back into the Panhandles, dividing the northwest and southeast half of the FA. As such, RH recoveries will vary from the northwest to southeast going into Friday. RH values Friday morning may vary well be in the 90-100 percent range, around 50 percent along a line from Vega to Beaver, with RH values staying low (24-40%) to the northwest.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

An upper level system is progged to approach the combined Panhandles Friday afternoon bringing with it dry air and gusty winds leading to critical fire weather conditions. Later, an associated cold front is progged to move into the area from the north in the late afternoon/ evening. This front is expected to bring strong to potentially high (58+ mph) winds. For now have not gone too much higher with the winds in the forecast, but there is still room for winds speeds to increase with subsequent forecast packages. Cooler temperatures are indeed expected with this frontal system. H85 temperatures are expected to drop into the 0 to 2 degree C range overnight into Saturday morning. This is leading to a concern of the northwest combined Panhandles potentially see Sat morning lows in the 28 to 32 degree range. Winds are expected to stay out of the north Sat with highs only expected to reach the 60s (near normal for this time of year).

For Sunday, winds are progged to return to the southwest and temperatures are expected to rebound into the 70s for afternoon. Elevated to spotty critical fire weather conditions may return in the northwestern FA as winds ramp up to the 15 to 20 mph range out of the southwest. Temperatures are expected to stay somewhat subdued on Monday, with a much warmer afternoon expected Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s. Outside of maybe some pop-up thunderstorms in the southeast

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with relatively light winds out of the W to SW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Extrememely dry conditions are expected Thu with RH values potentially getting down to 5 percent. Twenty-foot winds are expected be out of the southwest around 15 to 20 mph with maybe some areas in the northwest panhandles reaching upwards of 25 mph. Even higher winds are expected on Friday as an upper level system approaches. This system will not only bring higher winds for Friday afternoon but also a cold front with a dramatic wind shift to the north later in the evening. Winds are still expected to be strong behind this front as it moves through overnight into Saturday morning. RFTIs in the 5 to 7 range are expected to be isolated to the northwest Panhandles Thursday with more widespread 5 to 7 RFTIs across all of the central to western Panhandles on Friday with potentially some 8s.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003.