textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the eastern and portions of the central Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. If thunderstorms can develop, there is a very low chance for a thunderstorm to become strong to severe.

- Widespread 100 to 110 degree temperatures are expected for the combined Panhandles on Wednesday. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday night and Monday. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain but appears very low at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

An isolated storm has formed northeast of Guymon this morning and is moving southeast. The environment is not supportive for a severe storm this morning but some light rain and lightning may occur with this cell before it dissipates. Looking towards the afternoon into the early evening, strong enough heating combined with a plume of moisture may result in isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Panhandles. Confidence in storms forming is still not the highest, but more CAMs are starting to suggest that storm initiation may occur. Sufficient instability and shear will be in place that if a storm does form, it could be severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. If anything does form, it will likely lose strength early this evening as temperatures begin to cool down.

Muscha

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Some rain or elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing in the northeastern Panhandles Tuesday morning, but that should dissipate after sunrise. Southwesterly low-level winds will draw in warmer air from New Mexico and we'll see temperatures warm into the low to mid- 90s across the Panhandles. In the presence of weak mid-level forcing (at best), perhaps a weak surface trough, and temperatures potentially reaching convective temperature, there is a low chance for thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Texas Panhandle. CAMs and mesoscale models show show anywhere from 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in this area along with 35-40 kts of effective shear in the mid to late afternoon. These factors, combined with favorable directional shear, would favor supercells with a threat for large hail up to the size of ping pong balls and 60 mph wind gusts. However, again, confidence is low in the potential for storms to develop given weak forcing at best. Thus, PoPs around 10% seems reasonable. Activity should weaken after sunset.

The Panhandles will be on the northeastern periphery of an upper- level ridge that is very tilted off to the northwest. Very warm 850mb temperatures will advect into the Panhandles throughout Wednesday. By the late afternoon, 850mb temperatures are expected to range from 34C (93F) to 37C (99F), which is near or above the climatological maximum for that date. This will support widespread 100+ degree high temperatures on Wednesday. A caveat is in the eastern Panhandles where there are some indications that low-level moisture will stick around into the afternoon, perhaps throughout the day, which could cause temperatures to underachieve but heat indices to overachieve. Regardless, the issuance of a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the southern Texas Panhandle.

A surface low will develop in eastern New Mexico throughout Wednesday before creeping into west Texas Wednesday night and strengthens. The cyclonic flow around the surface low will cause low- level moisture to push back into the southeastern Texas Panhandle as the northerly winds begins to draw cooler air into the Panhandles. Winds will become breezy overnight as this surface low develops, and we will see cooler temperatures move in from the north throughout the night.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Much cooler air will filter in throughout Thursday behind a cold front. In fact, high temperatures are likely to occur in the morning for portions of the central/southern Texas Panhandle if the frontal timing holds up. We could see some showers or elevated thunderstorms Thursday night across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, but forcing is weak which limits confidence. If thunderstorms do develop, forecast soundings indicate noteworthy elevated instability, ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg on the more conservative side (GFS) to 2000-3000 J/kg. Hail and lightning would be the most likely hazards, but generally weak shear should limit the magnitude of the hail threat.

An upper-level trough will move into the Western US on Friday which pumps a ridge over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm back up on Friday, but especially on Saturday when highs in the mid/upper-90s will return.

Zonal flow aloft will become present on Sunday with a flattened upper-level ridge over southwest Texas and northwestern Mexico. Perturbations in the zonal flow may provide enough forcing for thunderstorms to develop, but there is some question about the availability of mid-level moisture. If a solution like the GFS verifies, which has significantly dry 700mb air advecting into much of the area, then thunderstorms would be unlikely Sunday and Sunday night.

Temperatures may cool somewhat going into Monday, but still looking at widespread 90s across the area. Thunderstorm chances look better than Sunday given favorable mid-level moisture advection.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at the terminals with this TAF issuance. Light wind out of the south to southwest is forecast during the day at the sites. The wind will increase starting around 06z as the low level wind increases and gusts could mix down to the surface with gusts upwards of 30 kts possible. If gusts do not mix down, LLWS will occur, but am leaning on the side of stronger gusts at the surface with this forecast. There are very low (10-15 percent) chances for a thunderstorm to form or be near KGUY this afternoon into early this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.