textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are favored this afternoon into the mid-evening, mostly along and south of the Canadian River Valley.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon to mid-evening, and localized flash flooding due to heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A large upper-level ridge is present over the west-central Rockies today. Low- to mid-level winds will range from southerly to easterly, which will encourage Gulf moisture to advect into the Panhandles throughout the day. Temperatures will quickly warm into the 90s today, and as we move into the afternoon hours, some very weak mid-level forcing could move into the Panhandles. Given that any cap inversion will be weak today, even this weak perturbation should be enough to kick off some scattered thunderstorms mostly along and south of the Canadian River Valley. Forecast soundings show around 750-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with DCAPE around 1400-1600 J/kg, both of which supports strong downdrafts. Given that storm motion is expected to be around 5 to 10 mph to the south-southwest or south, this would support a very low chance for thunderstorms to produce wind gusts up to 60 mph. Additionally, PWATs are expected to be between 1.3" to 1.5" (around the 90th percentile for mid-July) across the southern Texas Panhandle which will support heavy to very heavy rainfall with any thunderstorm. Combined with the slow storm motion, rain rates could range from 1 to 2 inches per hour, with a very low chance for rain rates up to 3 inches per hour if clustering or training thunderstorms occur. These rain rates could lead to a localized flash flood threat particularly for any flood-prone location. Thunderstorms should begin to weaken around and after sunset due to the loss of daytime heating owing to the absence of sufficient forcing mechanisms.

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift northeastward on Monday, moving into the northern Plains. Won't be able to rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, but most if not all of the Panhandles will stay dry. High temperatures will largely be cooler than normal for mid-July; in the upper-80s to low-90s!

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

An interesting weather pattern is likely set to occur in this long- term period where there is a Rex block set up over the Central CONUS: an upper-level ridge centered over the northern Plains with a cut-off trough moving from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys westward into the southern Plains and eventually parts of the Southwestern US. Low- to mid-level winds will be generally southeasterly throughout the long-term period which will promote consistently increasing moisture content through the week. The fly in the proverbial ointment is that the best mid-level forcing is expected to stay in southwestern to west-central Texas at this time. If this continues to be the case, then there may be periodic storm chances in the southern Texas Panhandle throughout the week with the best thunderstorm chances staying to our south.

Overall moisture content could increase more substantially Thursday and Friday when a tropical system could develop in the eastern Pacific. If this happens, conditions may be favorable for mid-level moisture associated with this system to advect into the Panhandles. The problem will continue to be where mid-level forcing will be favorable to support thunderstorm development, but it is around this time when the Rex block will begin to break down, so there are a lot of uncertainties abound.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Thunderstorms are expected across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and into the mid-evening, potentially impacting Amarillo. Have included a Prob30 group for now given uncertainty in exact timing. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong downdrafts and heavy rain which will reduce visibility. There is currently very low confidence in thunderstorms impacting Dalhart or Guymon.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.