textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

-Daily thunderstorm chances continue throughout the work week, with some thunderstorms being strong to severe.

-Persistent triple digit heat is increasing in confidence starting this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Looking at the latest 00Z RAOB analysis out of Amarillo, MUCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg above the established conditionally stable area closer to the surface, still provides an elevated environment for the Panhandles through tonight for some strong to severe storms. The retreating sfc boundary that caused our supercell in the Amarillo area earlier to day has now reached the I-25 corridor as of the latest 04Z sfc analysis where storms have regenerated. If they hold in their multi-cell cluster and progress east/east-southeast, we will have to watch the northern combined Panhandles. Large hail will be the primary threat through sunrise before the complex of storms exit to our east.

After we clear out mid day tomorrow morning, with the main H500 high centered over southern NM, perturbations across the northern circumference of the anti-cyclonic flow will help to develop convection off the high terrain. With notable instability, wind shear, and lift, all hazards may be in play once again for severe threats, especially for the western Panhandles. As the main H500 high begins to compress, main steering flow for convection by Thursday will originate off of more zonal flow perturbation in the central Rockies. As a result, the northern Panhandles will be favored for any strong to severe storms that form off this flow regime. High temperatures continue to be above average with highs in the 90s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Latest global model guidance are showing some accord of a building mid level ridge of high pressure into the central Plains by this weekend, that should then slowly shift into the Ohio River valley region by early next week. If this pattern holds, we could see some mountain diurnally driven convection for the NM high terrain that would reach the far western Panhandles. What is a higher probability is the building heat and strong H850 WAA under the building ridge. Many locations across the Panhandles have the potential for several days in a row, staring this weekend, for well above average temperatures with highs in the 100-105 degree range.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have moved off to the eastern Panhandles as of this writing. However, abundant moisture in in the lower atmosphere is creating some impacts from low CIGs. Currently CIGs have been bouncing all over from LIFR to IFR and MVFR. Expect this to continue until the sun is up for a bit so maybe after 15Z everything will stabilize with VFR conditions returning NLT 18Z. KGUY may be the last terminal to see VFR with KAMA improving much earlier. Expect primarily southeasterly winds around 10 kts today, potentially becoming southwest after 09Z Thu.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.