textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Elevated fire weather remains present this afternoon with critical fire looking to follow Monday in the north.

- A pattern shift starting Tuesday will see chances of showers and thunderstorms possible clear into next weekend.

- The potential for active weather will look to keep temperatures a bit more regulated with highs in the 70s to low 80s this week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A bit of a quieter day for the Panhandles as models see a upper- level ridge slowly build throughout today. For today, temperatures are looking to warm under the ridge and associated high pressure with afternoon highs closer to the mid 70s. Winds on the other hand will look to pick up just a bit across the Western Panhandles creating some breezy conditions this afternoon and evening. These winds alongside the still very dry conditions will unfortunately result in some elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. For Monday, high pressure and the upper-level ridge look to hold, which will allow for another dry and warm day. However to the far northwest, a weak lee-side low is expected to build off the Front Range. This low will help shift winds back towards a more southwesterly direction for the day and allow for some areas to see gusts upwards of 40 mph across the Northern Panhandles. Unfortunately these winds may be enough to create another round of elevated to low-end critical fire weather, especially with relative humidity values looking to be under 15 percent for the afternoon. Currently a Red Flag Warning is in place for that afternoon across the Northern Panhandles. Otherwise, look for temperatures to stay on the warmer side with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Beyond Monday the overall upper-level pattern looks to shift as models see multiple troughs push across the Panhandles clear through Friday. Each of these trough will look to provide us with a chance at active weather with first starting Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Currently latest ensembles are beginning to favor seeing some form of showers and thunderstorms as the trough and its associate Pacific front move across the area, with chances holding around 20 to 40 percent. However, chances of any beneficial rainfall seem to be much lower with present models not seeing a lot of moisture present behind the front. As it stands, indication from the ensembles are only seeing a 10 to 15 percent chance of seeing amount greater than a quarter of an inch. Instead, better chances may have to wait for the next system moving in sometime Thursday into Friday. At this time present ensemble are giving much better chances for actual beneficial rainfall with this secondary system. Currently chances of greater than a quarter of an inch are closer to 30 to 40 percent. From there models do see a potential for this active weather to continue into next weekend. However, these still plenty of uncertainty that may see these chances fall or increase over the coming days. Regardless, look for temperatures to stay warm, but a bit more regulated with afternoon highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours over all sites. Wind speeds this evening are expected to decrease in the next hour. Lighter winds at the surface are expected tonight, but low level wind shear may affect KDHT and KGUY. Speed shear is forecast with 40 kt winds possible at 2,000 ft AGL. The winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface by the late morning hours tomorrow, and strong, southwesterly winds should persist until the end of the 00Z TAF period.

Rangel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A weak lee-side low set up is expected to be present this Monday afternoon, which will allow for gusty southwesterly winds to be present across the area. Currently, expectations have the strongest winds focused in the Northwestern Panhandles where speeds could reach 20 to 25 mph and gusts upwards of 40 mph. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Panhandles will make for another dry day with relative humidity values across the Western Panhandles holding below 15 percent with the rest of the area staying around 20 percent. One wrench in these conditions will be the lee-side low itself as it looks to move off the the Front Range during the afternoon time frame. This will result in winds weakening sooner and decreasing concern more towards elevated than critical.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001>007.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001>003.