textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for the southwest Texas Panhandle, where breezy and dry conditions could cause critical fire weather concerns.

- Record high temperatures are forecast for the Panhandles today, with lower chances to break records Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

On this late February Tuesday, the Panhandles will have quite the stark difference in wind speeds across the area, but one aspect will prove fairly constant: record warmth. "Bone dry" air is forecast for the entirety of the Panhandles, with minimum relative humidity values bottoming out near 5-10%. Northwest flow aloft will initiate a lee sfc low to our northwest, which is set to move southeast over the Panhandles through the day. This feature will usher warmer air to the region, helping highs reach the low to mid 80s across a majority of the CWA (especially the southern TX Panhandle). Ahead of this low, a tighter pressure gradient over the south-southwest TX Panhandle will help to generate west winds of 15-25 mph with slightly higher gusts in the area. This is where critical fire weather conditions will be mainly confined to today. There are still some models indicating that this sfc low could slow down or shift its track further east or west, which may lead to areal changes in the Red Flag Warning currently in place. Areas further north and east are most likely to find themselves directly underneath the aforementioned low, which highly favors lighter and more variable winds. Elevated fire weather conditions could still materialize outside of the Red Flag warning mostly due to the low RH values.

Wednesday could be another day to watch out for breaking record high temps, although probabilities to do so are lower at all sites (40-70% chance). Regardless, afternoon highs will peak in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be notably lighter out of the south after the sfc low exits the region. The air mass atop the region should remain quite dry, but will see an ever so slight moisture improvement as higher dew points in the 20s and 30s are advected northward. Fire weather concerns will be minimal on Wednesday as a result.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A cold front is set to arrive Wed night providing a brief cool down for Thursday (highs back in the 60s to low 70s). Ensemble data sets agree this will be short lived, due in large part to persistent 850mb warm air advection. Friday and Saturday will be right back in the 70s to low 80s as a result. Early next week's forecast remains somewhat uncertain regarding temperatures, as models try to decipher whether or not a stronger cold front will encroach upon the region late Saturday into Sunday. Latest trends continue to find slightly better agreement on the cold front actually arriving to the region, although there are still some doubts on just how much cooler we will get (highs in the 40s & 50s vs 60s & 70s). Next week continues to favor above average temperatures as ridging aloft builds back towards the southern Plains. We will be watching the potential for deeper moisture return around the middle of next week, as more long range models show a deepening upper level low approaching from the west. Should this pan out, it may be enough to invigorate the atmosphere and promote substantial moisture advection to the region. Confidence in this occurring is extremely low this far out, but will be something to monitor as we get closer.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the west at KAMA and KDHT 15 to 25kts. Winds will stay up through about 02-06z, then winds will turn out of the north to northwest 5 to 10 kts. Mostly clear skies to few high clouds expected for the TAF period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ006-011-012-016>018-317.

OK...None.