textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through at least Wednesday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, and there is a very low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm each day after.

- Widespread mid-90 to low/mid-100 degree temperatures are expected from Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An upper-level ridge will extend from the Gulf into the Southern US on Saturday with a seasonably impressive upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest. Very hot temperatures are expected across the Panhandles on Saturday as temperatures soar into the upper-90s to 100s across the Panhandles. A heat advisory has been issued for Palo Duro Canyon where temperatures are favored to reach 105 degrees.

A surface trough will move through the much of area before it reaches its likely resting point in the eastern Panhandles. With not much mid-level forcing, any potential thunderstorm activity would have to result from surface convergence along the surface trough and/or reaching convective temperatures. Nonetheless, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms in the late afternoon to early evening in the eastern Texas Panhandle. Any shower or thunderstorm that can develop will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph.

A very similar situation is expected to unfold on Sunday: very hot, possible heat advisory for Palo Duro Canyon, and some showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough in the eastern Panhandles. Once again will not be able to rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph being the primary hazard. Activity, if it develops, should only persist from the late afternoon into the early evening hours. Otherwise, expecting breezy winds across the Panhandles which may lead to elevated fire weather concerns. However, there is uncertainty about the fuels' receptiveness.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

By Monday, the upper-level ridge will be centered over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Mississippi Valley region as a longwave trough persists over the Western US. A comparable situation to Saturday and Sunday will set up again for Monday, though there are some minor differences. The surface trough may set up slightly further west than previous days; it'll be up to 4 degrees cooler in some places; there'll be slightly more forcing for potential showers and thunderstorm development. Wind shear will not be particularly impressive (15-20 kts, maybe a bit higher), thus thunderstorms will mostly be multicellular and could favor one or more line segments. Forecast soundings show weak to moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 1600-1800 J/kg DCAPE which strongly supports strong downdrafts. Given these conditions, it seems probable that eventually thunderstorms will become too outflow dominant for their own good.

Yet again, the large-scale pattern will remain stagnant going into Tuesday and Wednesday, but stronger mid-level forcing may present itself later in the day. Yet again, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the combined Panhandles.

Thursday and beyond, there is broad agreement that the upper-level ridge may expand westward which could shut down this active weather pattern and introduce heat concerns again.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms in the SW to NE across the central panhandles. If these thunderstorms occur they will be capable of producing strong downburst winds. The chances for these impacting any terminal are not high enough to be reflected in the TAFs. The winds today will be windy and gusty from generally the southwest. Overnight winds will weaken to breezy and the gusts cease while the direction becomes more southerly. This opens the chance for low level speed shear at all terminals tonight. With the expected hot temperatures there will likely be increased density altitude at all terminals for today.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.