textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Light rain showers are expected this weekend across the Panhandles, with embedded thunderstorms that can produce heavier rainfall.

- Cold and breezy conditions in conjunction with the rain will result in morning lows near freezing for Sunday and Monday.

- Cool and breezy weather expected early next week, with potential for an active pattern to return late week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

As of early this morning present radar was already seeing the initial band of showers push into the Panhandles from our southwest with expectations to see this band push clear across the Panhandles during late morning and early afternoon hours. From here present trends in the CAMs expected a secondary push of showers to follow with the arrival of the stronger upper-level trough and its associated surface low. In terms of impacts this secondary push is more likely contain some weak pockets of instability, around 200 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, which can result in some embedded thunderstorms. However, current indications from the CAMs does point to these thunderstorms keeping impacts to heavy rainfall and occasional lightning for the day. As for expected rainfall totals, present CAMs have seen some better chances of some localize higher totals that can near an inch thanks to the increase chances of embedded convection. However with PWAT values still holding just shy on an inch, most of the average totals continue to range around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for the day.

As we move into the overnight and Sunday morning, most CAMs have seen the system making a quicker exit than initially expected with most of any activity sticking to the Northern and Eastern Panhandles for the day. While this exit will likely leave the remaining areas of Panhandles under decent subsidence, there is still strong hints that fog and mist can form during the morning hours which can lead to its own problems. Regardless this activity will see our temperatures take yet another dip with afternoon highs for this weekend holding in the 40s to low 50s. Meanwhile overnight lows will look to hold more towards the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Present model agreement continues to see the full exit of the weekend system with a ridge looking to build in behind it. However, cooler temperatures will look hold bring in some chilly morning lows pushing most locations near freezing alongside some hints at widespread fog. Moving into the Tuesday and Wednesday does have present model agreement push another system across Central Colorado. Currently, this position is not very favored for the Panhandles with present ensemble giving the Panhandles a less than 10 percent chance of precipitation. Still this passage has continue to trend towards some breezy to gusty conditions for the Panhandles with most models seeing the trough dip a portion of the Polar Jet over our north. By Thursday and end of next week, present model runs do hint at another system that can bring more opportunities for precipitation. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in these systems with current chances only around 10 to 40 percent. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to warm slightly form the weekend activity but still stay in the 50 to 60s for afternoon highs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions reported to start the 12Z TAF period at KAMA/KGUY with MVFR cigs reported at KDHT. Throughout the day, especially past 16/17Z to the end of the TAF period, MVFR and eventually past 00Z to the end of the TAF period, more IFR cigs will impact all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.