textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Some areas including Palo Duro Canyon will have potential to reach 105 degrees almost daily starting this weekend into next week.

- Very low precipitation chances linger across the far northwest Panhandles through the end of August.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

An uneventful weather weekend is highly favored to unfold, as high pressure meanders back atop the region. Mesoanalysis and satellite water vapor show a 596 dam ridge currently centered over the Rockies of New Mexico, but will be translating eastward over the next few days. As it does so, a tighter surface pressure gradient will develop, leading to breezier southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 mph. Afternoon temperatures unfortunately will climb back to the upper 90s to just above the century mark this weekend in tandem with breezy winds. Despite recent rainfall, these parameters could support elevated fire weather conditions both days. A relatively moisture starved environment atop the region will greatly diminish precipitation chances, with the only 10-15% POPs existing across the far northwest Panhandles in the evening hours.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Model trends aren't looking great to cap off August and kick off September, as hot and dry conditions are very likely to prevail. Both deterministic and ensemble datasets depict high pressure being nudged eastward over the southeast CONUS through the week, as persistent troughing settles atop the Pacific northwest. Although this does loosen the grip of ridging over the Panhandles, it should still have enough influence to reduce moisture transport to the CWA while keeping high temperatures in the 90 to 105 range each day next week. If there are any days with better rain chances, models suggest Tue-Wed could see slightly improved potential as the jet stream sags closer to the Panhandles. However, this still only supports meager 10-20% POPs to northwestern portions of the forecast area. Elevated fire weather conditions could return any given day with breezy winds, and rain chances don't look promising for awhile looking further ahead into September.

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

High pressure is expected to keep building across the combined Panhandles today which will keep the predominate conditions for the terminals VFR this afternoon. There is a 10 percent chance of an isolated storm across the far Northwestern Panhandles late this evening. However, CAMs do not expect any impacts to the terminals with breezy to gusty surface to be more of a problem for the day.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.