textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- A low chance of showers and storms (<25 percent) for various portions of the Panhandles today and Thursday.

- Heat impacts will begin to return with some areas touching 100 today and a gradual increase through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Surface dewpoints in the central to southern Panhandles have climbed into the upper 50s to near 60. We do still have decent mid level moisture and CAM's are suggesting that we will have isolated to widely scattered showers today. Light cu field has started in the southeast and will likely expand across much of the area today. The question is if we can get enough instability for some showers ad even some storms. Soundings really struggle to give that ample ML CAPE for decent growth, but had been running with lower dewpoints than currently observed. 18z sounding also showing very little ML CIN with ample 500-700mb moisture. Lapse rates could be better, but already seeing some returns from the building Cu. Storms that manage to form today could be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, but also may have small cores, and thus if ample lightning is involved, then we may have concerns of fire starts. Also, storms would have the potential for strong wind gusts. Showers/storms should diminish off in the evening, but have an even better chance to return tomorrow. The setup is similar to today, but could have a little more expansive coverage, and that would increase the concerns for lightning that could spark grass fires. Also temperatures may be up a degree or two on Thursday, with some areas getting very close to heat advisory criteria.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The daily chances of showers and storms is certainly still on the table as the high retrogrades west back toward the southern high plains, but looks to be more amplified and that would give a better chance at drawing up more Gulf moisture and eastern Pacific moisture that has been over the NM area to our area. Still low confidence at this time, as models continue to keep a ridge over the Panhandles, but struggle with the strength and overall position of the ridge moving into the extended. Now as we head into next week, we're seeing that the ridge is breaking down but still expands back to the east and still keeps most of the moisture running up and over the Panhandles, but there are subtle hints that we could get some of that moisture clip the northwest.

Weber

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds 10-15kts out of the south to southwest and may gust to 25kts at times. Few to scattered mid clouds over the next few hours, and we may even get showers/storms near or around KAMA and KDHT, but still not high enough confidence to go PROB30, so storms will be dealt with via amendments. Showers and storms could return again after 18z Thursday for the end of the TAF period.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.