textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Another round of widespread triple-digit temperatures is expected this afternoon with the Eastern Panhandles seeing high upwards of 107 degrees.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain present for Wednesday and next week with best chances across the Northern Panhandles.

- Elevated fire weather conditions remains possible each afternoon as the Panhandles holds onto these hot and dry conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Present model agreement continues to see the upper-level high retrograde back west with most models seeing it directly over the Panhandles by this afternoon. This will unfortunately see a return of much drier and hotter conditions for the day with any precipitation chances relying on the remnants of storms making it off the mountains to our west. To further amplify these conditions, present CAMs have seen decent southwesterly flow present at the lower-levels of the atmosphere that will likely see breezy southwesterly winds at the surfaces. These winds will aid in seeing relative humidity values drop as low as 15% while temperatures push triple-digits for multiple locations this afternoon and evening. For the eastern Panhandles, temperatures are expected rise as high as 107 degrees with our more terrain based locations feeling evening hotter. Given these temperatures, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Panhandles from noon until 9 PM tonight. Meanwhile across the entire Panhandles, look for this hot, dry and breezy state to bring back elevated fire weather concerns for the afternoon.

As for Wednesday, a slight reprise of this high pressure does continue to trend as models see the high back off with the southerly push of a trough sitting over the Great Lakes area. While the Panhandles wont feel the full extent of this trough, it will open us to enough northwesterly flow to allow a weak disturbance to forces storms to push in from the mountains to our west. In terms of impacts, present CAMs have higher confidence in storms producing strong to damaging gusts than anything else, given the lack of high amounts of CAPE or wind shear. Regardless, this shift will help in cooling off the Northern Panhandles with temperatures closer to the low 90s, while the far southeast still deals with triple-digit temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The presence of the trough to our east will aid in keeping the upper-level high off the Panhandles for an extra day Thursday, which will result in temperatures staying closer to the mid 90s for the day. Unfortunately, this break does not look to last as present model agreement sees the high returning in full force by Friday, with a few runs even suggesting the center of the high sitting over the Panhandles by this weekend. This placement of the high is expected to lead to another round of very hot days with widespread triple-digit temperatures for the weekend and start of next week. As for precipitation, the northern Panhandles do still hold around a 10 to 30 percent chance of see storms push in form the Southern Front Range. However for the south, these chances are very slim with present guidance only calling for a 10 percent or less chance of storms each day. Otherwise, look for these hot and dry conditions to further aggravate fuels and bring more chances of elevated fire weather conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Dry conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours as the upper-level high pushes back over the Panhandles. This will leave all terminals at VFR conditions for the current TAF package. However, expected southwesterly winds to pick up at the surface during the afternoon with gusts upwards of 30 knots not out of the question.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-014-015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.