textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Eastern Panhandles this afternoon and evening with low chances of some storm becoming severe.

- The arrival of a cold front late tonight is expected to see another round of storms in the Northern Panhandles with chances to see more activity as it push fully across Sunday.

- An active weather pattern is expected to continue through next week which will allow for cooler temperatures to hold for the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

As of late last night present water vapor imagery did see flow across Panhandles shift to a more southwesterly flow with the upper-level trough sitting to our north in Wyoming. Under normal circumstance southwesterly follow would be follow by dry and warm conditions. However, strong monsoonal moisture coming off both gulf coasts has made that not the case for this weekend. Instead present CAMs continue to suggest PWAT values around 1.2 to 1.4 inches for most of the Panhandles with the far east seeing values near the 1.6 to 1.7 inch mark at times. With this much moisture present, the Panhandles will have the fuel necessary to see decent showers and thunderstorms. However, we will still need a viable lifting mechanism for such a thing, which is where the upper-level trough to our north comes in handy today. Presently current CAMs runs are in agreement that the positioning of the trough will allow for some drier air to move across the Western and Northern Panhandles during the afternoon. This transport of drier air will unfortunately reduce our chances in the west and north, but will set up a weak boundary for storms to develop off of in the Eastern Panhandles. Of course not all hope is lost for the Northern Panhandles as a weak cold front is expected to follow later that night which will give us better opportunities during the overnight. To add this overnight activity some CAMs are starting to trend towards a low level jet setting up across the Southeastern Panhandles as well, which may be enough to reinvigorate the area and give us another opportunity. In terms of impacts for the day, main concern will be on the heavy rainfall and localized flooding that could follow it. However, CAMs have consistently seen around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE alongside 20 to 30 knots of effective bulk wind shear in our east. These kinds of ingredients would be more than enough to get a couple of isolated supercells that afternoon with hail upwards of ping-pong ball in sized and wind gusts upwards of 70 mph not out of the question. Of course this is assuming the front doesnt arrive early and lead to boundary interactions that would bring all hazards to the table.

Moving into Sunday, does have majority of the CAMs agreeing for the front to finally push into the Panhandles which does want to start another round of showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. However, the front is going to have to fight through some still present drier air at the mid to upper-levels as well as an atmosphere that could be over worked from the prior activity. Given this we have chosen to keep our chance on the lower end at around 10 to 30% for the day. Still, if something can get going, then there is at least enough DCAPE to see a wind gust upwards of 60 mph. Otherwise, this front passage will look to kick off the start of our cooler weather with some of our north looking at highs in the low 80s that afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Active weather looks to hold for the long term period as present trends in models see the Panhandles open up to new disturbances following the exit of the trough to our north. These disturbances will look to take advantage of the monsoonal moisture that is expected to keep pushing in from our southwest and bring us daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through next week. For Monday, these chances do look to start mostly in the Southern Texas Panhandles with expectations to spread further north as new trough moves into the Southwestern Untied States Tuesday. After which, model agreement does try to break down the trough with its remnants pushing east and aiding us in another round of activity Wednesday. Beyond this point, model agreement begins to break down with GFS keeping more short-wave activity over the area clear into next weekend while the ECMWF actually tries to force the remnants of a tropical system up into New Mexico, which could result in much stronger activity for the end of the week. Regardless all this active weather is expected to keep the Panhandles cool for all of next week with highs in the mid 70s to 80s starting Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds currently 10 to 15kts out of the south to southwest. Winds will pick up around 15z to be more west southwest around 15 to 20kts with gust up to 30kts. That will persist through about 03z in which winds will come down around 10kts out of the south. There is a very low chance (less than 20 percent) of showers or storms at any given TAF site, so no PROB30s at this time, but amendments may be needed if things look like they may pick up.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.