textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Breezy winds and low relative humidity will cause elevated fire weather conditions across much of the Panhandles this afternoon.

- Breezier and drier conditions are expected for less of the area on Tuesday, but could still cause low end critical fire weather concerns for the southwest Texas Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions today, and low end critical fire weather conditions Tuesday will lead our early week weather headlines for portions of the Panhandles. Quite the dry air mass continues to dominate our weather, so highs in the 60s will drop relative humidity values into the teens today. Adding 10-20 mph south winds will be enough for spotty elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Winds will stay breezy overnight, keeping low temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Tomorrow, temperatures are favored to be in the upper 70s to low 80s, which would put record highs at risk for all climate sites as high pressure builds into the region. These higher temperatures will make minimum RH values tank into the single digits Tue afternoon (potentially as low as 5% if more aggressive guidance verifies). Thankfully, due to a deepening sfc low pushing over the area through much of the day, breeziest west winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 35 mph) are forecast to be confined to the southwest TX Panhandle, where we may see critical fire weather conditions. A weak cool front will drop in behind the sfc low Tue night, but won't have much of any impact on temperatures.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Warmth carries over into Wednesday thanks to high pressure, but lighter winds will greatly mitigate the fire weather risk through the rest of the week. A cold front is set to arrive Wed night providing a brief cool down for Thursday (highs back in the 60s). Ensemble data sets agree this will be short lived, due in large part to persistent 850mb warm air advection. Friday will be right back in the 70s to low 80s as a result. Our weekend weather forecast remains somewhat uncertain regarding temperatures, as models try to decipher whether or not a stronger cold front will encroach upon the region. Previous runs had the Euro and Canadian models showing this cold front arriving Saturday, while the GFS basically had no front at all to be found. Latest trends however, have found slightly better agreement with the GFS jumping on the cold front bandwagon, although progressing it slightly slower. Either way, this would hint at the return of slightly cooler temps into next week (highs closer to, but still above average).

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be the main story as they will increase out of the south southwest 15 to 20 kts, gusting 20 to 30 kts. Mostly clear to few high clouds expected. As we get toward the tail end of the TAF period LLWS will be possible after 06z.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ001-006-011-012-016>018-317.

OK...None.