textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Thunderstorms likely (60-80%) across the entirety of the Panhandles today. Flooding will be the primary hazard, along with the chance for strong wind gusts.

- Best chances for thunderstorms returning are on Friday, along the western and north-central Panhandles.

- Looking at a possible pattern shift this weekend, bring rain chances and cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A cold front is currently working its way through the Panhandles, moving southeast at around 20 kts. Behind (north) of this cold front, winds are turning from southwesterly to north or northwesterly. The front will continue its progress southeasterly, initiating thunderstorms around mid-afternoon (3-4 PM). Initiation is expected due to daytime heating reaching its maxima, and winds in front (south) of the cold front turn more southerly to southeasterly. This will tighten the thermal gradient across the boundary and enhance convergence along it, providing substantial lifting along the cold front. A residual surface boundary from yesterdays thunderstorm activity is still in place just south of the highway 60 corridor, which will likely interact with the cold front and assist with initiation. Current prognosis of the position of the cold front from many computer models is on the slow side, as the current position of the front is further southeast than most models have it currently positioned.

1000-1400 J/kg of MLCAPE, but lacking bulk shear will likely lead to clusters of thunderstorms forming along the boundary, growing upscale as they move northeast around 20 kts. There could be some better shear along the boundary, but storms being able to utilize that shear will depend heavily on their initiation axis relative to the boundary. DCAPE values are expected to remain moderate, around 700-1000 J/kg, which will likely hinder the severe wind threat. However, with storm motion taken into account, a marginal severe wind threat remains with stronger cells along the boundary. PWAT values rank above the 99th percentile along the boundary for this time of year in the Panhandles, varying from 1.5-1.8". PWATS working in tandem with storm motions around 20 kts and partially training storm motion vectors in regards to the boundary orientation lead to the primary hazard of todays storms being flooding. Flooding threat will be highest all along the boundary, but along the highway 60 corridor between Amarillo and Pampa will likely see the most amount of training with the best rain producing storms. Some elevated terrain induced showers and possibly thunderstorms could make their way into the northwestern Panhandles later this evening, from 6-9 PM. However, these storms will move into a capped environment as they progress northeast off the higher terrain that initiates them, so intensity is questionable by the time they make it to the Panhandles. As the frontal boundary retreats back north, rain will likely, bringing rain to the northern Panhandles later tonight after midnight.

Wednesday, temperatures will vary from the mid-80's in the northwest to the mid-90's in the southeast. Upper-level flow shift more southerly, keeping most of the monsoonal moisture and elevated showers from New Mexico west of the Panhandles. The far western combined panhandles could see some precipitation, but chances are currently low (10-20%).

Ferguson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Thursday seems to be more of the same story as Wednesday, dry with temperatures in the low 90's and very low (~10%) precipitation chances in the far western Panhandles. Friday, the ridge over the southeast US begins to flatten out thanks to an upper-level trough propagating eastward across the central US. This allow for southwesterly upper-level flow to return to the Panhandles, allowing lee-side cyclogenesis to develop a surface low-pressure in eastern Colorado that would drape a surface moisture boundary across the Panhandles. Precipitation chances are still uncertain, but they favor the western and north-central combined Panhandles.

Into the weekend, the upper-level trough continues its eastward propagation placing the Panhandles in the exit region. This could be a pattern shift to keep an eye on that could bring widespread rain chances to the Panhandles over the weekend and a drop in temperatures as we head into next week. However, uncertainty in the positioning of the trough as it swings through is still high, and will have to be monitored in future forecasts.

Ferguson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Present radar and satellite imagery this evening has seen a much earlier arrival to the front than most CAMs expected. this has resulted in the environment being a bit too stable for storms to develop and maintain themselves around terminals with confidence in any activity starting to diminish. Still present CAMs have seen some of the activity south of us eventually make its way up here later tonight with potential to strengthen as it runs into the front. Should this happen then it is possible for KAMA to see some impacts in the form of lighting and heavy rainfall. As for KDHT and KGUY, present CAMS are only see lingering activity have any chance of making its way to the terminals with the bigger impacts being low cloud decks overnight that will see the terminals drop to MVFR conditions.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.