textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles for large hail and damaging winds.

- Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon on Sunday with very hot temperatures approaching 106 degrees.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week, varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight hours.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Latest 18Z obs across the Panhandles shows temperatures well into the 80s with a few areas in the 90s. Along the Caprock, we are also seeing a ~45 deg sfc convergence boundary of higher Td values advecting in from the SE TX Panhandle. This is causing a alto Cu field to develop along this convergence boundary. Quite the minuscule vertical growth of these clouds as lapse rates are quite anemic, especially further south you are in the Texas Panhandle. However, latest 18Z RAOB data from AMA shows sfc instability just south of 3000 J/kg, along with sfc-6 km shear of only 5 kts. We will watch the aforementioned sfc boundary closely, although effective shear is limited, plenty of moisture is in the region, and reaching convective temperature, any notable lift from boundary and/or local terrain could still potentially produce a thunderstorm for the southern TX Panhandle (10-20% chance). Further north into the northern Panhandles, displaced from the main H500 centered well to the SW, along with better mid level lapse rates and effective shear greater than 30 kts, higher confidence for severe storm potential exists in this area. H500 westerlies will steer terrain off the NM/CO high terrain. Southern extent of established complex should reach the OK Panhandle, as of the latest 16-18Z HRRR/ARW/NMM hi-res data. Good directional shear may keep cells discrete as they reach the OK Panhandle, with large hail and damaging winds the main threat, with H850 LLJ increasing in this vicinity through 03Z this evening. Any thunderstorms activity should quickly move east into NW Oklahoma through 04-05Z.

The influence of the main H500 anticyclonic feature over the southwest CONUS will result in strong H850 WAA into the Panhandle for Sunday, where many locations in the TX Panhandle will top out in the 100-105 range for highs on Sunday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon with max temperatures as high as 106. A cold front will move south through the Panhandles later Sunday afternoon into the evening. Areas east of the dryline in the far eastern Panhandles will have the best chance of seeing a thunderstorm as the cold front moves south, where some storms could be severe. Will watch surface trends closely throughout the day to further narrow down the areas with hugest potential.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

As the main H500 high pressure system slowly shifts west, with its center over the NM/AZ border with Mexico, established WNW/NW H500 flow should steer mountain convection towards the Panhandles. The northern and eastern Panhandles will be most favored for thunderstorm potential each evening into the overnight hours. Depending on mid level perturbations within the flow, some days could feature strong to severe storms as well. High temperatures will remain above average throughout the coming week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the TAF period at all TAF sites. The only exception could be at KGUY where VCTS conditions from around 00-03Z, where a TS over the TAF site could cause erratic winds. Otherwise, winds will generally be out of the southwest, becoming more westerly and northwesterly towards the end of the TAF period at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ317.

OK...None.