textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions today due to gusty winds and low RH last into the early evening.

- Warm and drier conditions are expected to keep elevated to critical fire clear present into next week.

- Increasing potential for strong winds behind the cold front passage Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The southern plains remains sandwiched between the broad scale high pressure system off to the southwest and the low pressure system to the northeast. This is leading to a northwest flow across the panhandles with fairly tight pressure gradient. To further add to this setup the flow is causing a lee trough to develop east of the front range of the Rockies. Both of these features are causing the robust and gusty southwest across the panhandles today. These winds will be strong enough to loft some dust that can lead to locally hazy conditions which will be most prevalent around the fire burn scars. The winds are driving in warm and dry air from NM that is downsloping as it arrives in the panhandles. This is the source of the increased warmth across the panhandles for today that is leading to highs in the 70s. Since it is windy and the air very dry critical fire weather conditions continue across the panhandles for the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Tonight through Friday that large scale pattern slowly shifts becoming more of a westerly flow across the rockies. This will serve to slacken the pressure gradient and weaken the lee trough across the southern plains. This means that the winds will most likely weaken for Friday but still remain breezy for at least the daytime hours. Still the panhandles will remain very dry so even if the winds are weaker the panhandles will still most likely see elevated fire weather conditions. The warming trend will continue through Friday with highs increasing into the 70s and 80s range. A general lack of moisture will lead to both today and Friday being sunny days with fair weather conditions.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Saturday the broad scale pattern has a high chance of holding to a westerly flow over the southern plains. This would continue the hot and dry weather across the panhandles with generally weaker winds.

Sunday A weather system passing through the broad scale pattern has a high chance of impacting the southern plains. This weather system has a high chance of passing a powerful cold front across the panhandles during the morning hours of Sunday. Following behind the front strong north winds will gust across the panhandles. In fact there is building confidence that these north winds will reach past 50 mph and may need a High Wind Watch in the future forecasts. So dont be surprised if the winds on Sunday increase with future forecasts. Such winds will drive in much colder air across the panhandles very quickly. This can make it such that the warmest time of Sunday is during the morning hours with the later morning and afternoon period actually becoming colder. Sunday has a moderate chance of being dry which coupled with these powerful winds is causing high concern for fire weather conditions. Sunday is most likely to see critical fire weather conditions across the whole of the panhandles. The only thing that may hold back these conditions is the low chance for some moisture to arrive with this weather system. If this moisture arrives then it can cause light precipitation and make it not as dry decreasing the fire weather concerns. This remains in flux so be sure to check future forecast to see what impacts this weather system brings to the panhandles.

Monday the weather system will most likely have departed the panhandles taking away any moisture it may have leading to generally dry and fair weather conditions. Still the cold air has a high chance of remaining across the panhandles with Monday being in large the coldest day of next week.

For the rest of the work week there is fairly high confidence that a high pressure system to develop across the southwestern portions of the U.S. including the southern plains. This system would most likely bring dry and hot conditions to the panhandles. So it is not out of the realm of possibility for the highs to reach into the 90s during the later portions of next work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across much of the panhandles for the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds will be gusting at all terminals for this afternoon and evening. The winds can loft some dust leading to slightly hazy conditions but conditions will remain VFR. These winds then become light for the overnight hours and remains fairly weak going into Friday. Overnight all terminals will most likely see the development of speed and directional low level wind shear. This shear will end going into the mid morning hours of Friday. Otherwise the panhandles will continue to see sunny skies and dry weather.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.