textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Record heat is expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- Critical fire weather is expected Thursday due to warm, dry, and gusty conditions.

- Cooler temperatures return late this week behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The rest of today's weather will continue to be characterized by far more seasonal temperatures and breezy winds. Observational data shows high pressure still seated off to our west, drawing north- northwest 500mb flow to the region. This pattern will spur on yet another warming trend Tuesday into midweek, with highs in the 80s across the Panhandles. Thankfully, winds will be lighter tomorrow which should mitigate anything more than an elevated fire weather threat. Overnight low temperatures will be mild in the 40s to low 50s the next couple of nights.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Wednesday & Thursday are still favored by models to be the hottest days of the week, with high likelihood to break record temperatures both days. The area of stout high pressure over the desert southwest looks to be nudged eastward by midweek when a stronger jet streak traverses the northern CONUS. The forecast area will be positioned under plump ridging as a result, with highs in the 90s forecast Wednesday and a few spots in the Texas Panhandle likely reaching the century mark Thursday. Breezy winds and very dry air will accompany the heat, spelling critical fire weather conditions across the area, especially as winds increase out of the north behind a strong cold front Thursday into Friday. Winds will go from south-southwesterly at 15-20 mph ahead of the front, to northerly at 20-30 mph behind it. Stronger winds above the surface should mix down as we tend to see, spelling 40-70% chances for >40mph gusts. A welcomed cooling trend will take place Fri-Sat with below average highs in the 60s returning to the region.

Confidence is still somewhat low, but long range model guidance is coming to a better consensus that a pattern change may arrive to end March and begin April. At the very least, deeper troughing is progged to encroach upon the Pacific coast next week, gradually pushing high pressure away from our region. This could allow some upper level systems to bring improved moisture back to the Panhandles, potentially enough to provide rain/storm chances. As per usual, track and timing of any systems will be key, along with placement of higher moisture content (widespread moisture or more localized to certain portions of the Panhandles). Regardless, the projected synoptic pattern next week supports reasonable spring temperatures for the Panhandles as opposed to the record breaking heat nonsense we've been subjected to as of late.

Harrel

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

As of early this evening, latest satellite was seeing a broken to scatter cloud deck present over the Panhandles. This deck is likely to be present through tonight and portions of the overnight with ceiling to stay VFR at all terminals. Otherwise, winds at the surface will stay on the lighter side for the package with direction out of the south.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.