textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least Monday.

- Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle this afternoon into this evening.

- Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities this week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The last full week of August begins with a continued focus on impactful heat, as well as afternoon-evening showers and storms. High temperatures are expected to stay roasting in the 99-109 range for a majority of the Panhandles today and tomorrow, thanks to the smothering influence of high pressure aloft. On top of the heat, breezier southwest winds of 10-20 mph will unfortunately leave elevated fire weather conditions for a majority of the forecast area today.

Today's rain chances rely on a shortwave disturbance impinging upon the 597 dam H500 area of high pressure centered to our west over New Mexico. In the mid-levels, a swath of better 700mb theta-e is progged to be in place atop the northern Panhandles when the shortwave arrives out of eastern CO & NM, which should initiate scattered convection this afternoon and evening. Although highest coverage of storms is favored across the north (20-40% POPs), isolated to scattered pop-up storms could develop with daytime heating and subtle areas of sfc convergence across the south and central Panhandles as well (10-20% POPs). Per usual, relatively dry surface conditions would support strong downburst wind gusts as the primary concern with any stronger storms, which should also keep the heavy rain potential on the lower side. However, PWATs >1.00" are supportive for locally heavier downpours, but even high-end rainfall totals are greatly favored to remain below 0.5" today.

Tomorrow we'll be looking at a similar setup as we keep an eye on convection moving out of CO & NM, which should mostly survive the trip to the northern and far western Panhandles (20-50% POPs). A boundary will be in play for additional storm development elsewhere, but could also keep temperatures below 105 for most of our northern counties. Ahead of the boundary, heat advisories and perhaps even an extreme heat warning may be needed, especially south of I-40. We will have to monitor short range model guidance and observational data to see just how far south the boundary ultimately progresses.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Models continue to heavily suggest that more rain opportunities and slightly less hot temperatures are in store for the middle of the week, but don't get your hopes up for a widespread drought buster or true cool down. The region will still be solidly dominated by high pressure through Tuesday afternoon, with triple digit heat holding steady. This pattern is set to evolve though, as long range data shows troughing over the Great Lakes region sagging southward Tuesday night through late week, which would suppress high pressure further southwest over El Paso. This synoptic pattern would allow northwest flow aloft to provide better disturbances and weak fronts for the region, especially for the northern combined Panhandles. Ensembles mostly agree this would increase rain chances each evening-overnight Tue-Thu. Despite favorable deep layer moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), most members suggest rainfall totals wouldn't be terribly impressive (mostly 0.50" or less any given night). Temperatures are progged to decline to the 90s Wed-Thu, but not for long as widespread triple digits are favored to resume through the end of the week.

The system Tuesday night is projected to be the strongest of the week and have abundant moisture in tow. Precipitation probabilities continue to rise for the entire Panhandles (30-70%), with medium range models now hinting that an organized MCS could push over much of the region from northwest to southeast. Some discrepancies exist among models, but forecast 20-30kt 0-6km shear along with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE generally spell low-end potential for severe wind gusts with any organized storms Tuesday night. Although the aforementioned trend of lighter rainfall is still the more likely outcome, models such as the RRFS are placing swaths of much heavier rainfall wherever this hypothetical line of storms ultimately passes. If you don't receive any rain Tue night, Wed night is the next best opportunity with only slightly lower probabilities of precipitation (20-60%).

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Isolated to scattered storms are expected once again during the afternoon and evening today, with highest probability for impacts being across our northern terminals (KDHT and KGUY). Outflow from these storms could produce strong wind gusts along with sudden wind shifts. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest before shifting to the west-northwest behind a boundary overnight. VFR sky conditions are favored to prevail at all sites.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010- 012>015-017-018.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020- 317.

OK...None.