textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 845 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Low chance (15%) for severe thunderstorms in the southeast Texas panhandle later this afternoon and evening. Primary hazards are large hail and damaging winds.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today across the Panhandles behind the cold front allowing for easier fire starts.

- Next work week has the potential to see active weather with rain showers, thunderstorms, and elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Recent short term model runs suggest there could be some thunderstorm development in the far southeast tonight after the initial cold front moved through. A second shortwave is expected to move across the CWA to reinforce the cold airmass. As it does so, this will act as a source of lift for additional convection. Currently, the cold front that moved through the panhandles today has stalled out around Hereford, Happy, and all the way to Dodson. If the front retreats northward tonight, this will aid in increasing MLCIN. The next round of storms may initiate after 8 PM. Given sufficient lapse rates and strong 0-6 km bulk shear, these storms may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat, but the thunderstorm threat may not last very long in our FA very long before they move southward out of the Texas Panhandle.

Rangel

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 845 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A weather system is currently moving across the Great Plains with its center towards the northern plains. The cold front associated with this weather system is slowly moving across the panhandles and is currently stalling. The stalled front is holding up in the southern Texas panhandle as the north winds have weakened and will most likely remain there for the rest of the afternoon. Aloft there is a jet streak associated with the weather system that is moving across the southern plains. This jet is causing a weak surface low to spin up on the stalled cold front creating more of a south wind ahead of the front. These more southerly surface winds are drawing up some surface moisture that can fuel the development of thunderstorms towards the front. However the surface moisture will still be confined to the eastern portions of the front as the gulf moisture will be too far south for it to arrive at the western portions of the front. Thus the placement of the stalled front is a key feature to determine whether or not the panhandles see any rain showers and thunderstorms. Currently the front is stalled in the southern panhandles with a slight tilt such that the eastern portions of the front are more northerly than the western portions. This allows for moisture to push into the southeastern portions of the Texas panhandles. This is leading to a low to moderate chance (10-50%) for rain showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Still, if the front can continue to push south before the storms form it would further lower the panhandles chances to see the storms. The most likely time for rain showers and thunderstorms to form within the moist sector is around 4 to 7 pm this afternoon. Within the moist sector there are favorable dynamics to allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Specifically, the instability there is a corridor of 1500 to 2500 J/kg of most unstable cape with effective shear of around 40 kt. This would favor the development of supercells that would be capable of producing mainly large hail and damaging winds. The low level shear is not high near the panhandles and look to decrease during the afternoon hours. Still a tornado cannot be ruled out as a threat posed by any supercell that forms. A mitigating factor for the Texas panhandle will be that it is on the edge of the moisture that would support the formation of such strong storms. So there is the potential for the storms to start within the Texas the panhandle and then push off to Oklahoma proper before they become severe. So the area and time window for severe weather within the Texas panhandles is narrow. This window will come to a firm shut during the evening hours as the surface moisture and better instability are shunted south and east. This will have the highest chance of leaving the rest of the overnight as a period of calm weather. However there will be a second surge of cooler air moving across the panhandles during the overnight hours. If there is enough moisture still lingering over the panhandles then it is not impossible for it to concentrate along this push to spark off a nocturnal rain shower or thunderstorm. The odds of this occurring are so low that they are not reflected within the forecast at this time.

Now for most of the panhandles which already saw the cold front pass through earlier, cooler dry air will continue to stream in for the rest of the day. This is creating some concerns for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions due to the breezy winds and low RH. Temperatures will be mild behind the cold front with highs toping out in the 60s. So if you are planning on enjoying the outdoors be fire safe and prevent wildfires before they start.

Saturday the cool air from the previous weather system will remain across the panhandles. This will keep the temperatures on the cooler side with highs in the 60s across the panhandles. The winds will remain breezy through much of the morning and afternoon which can make it feel just a bit cooler. Still it will be dry across the panhandles so there is limited concerns for elevated fire weather conditions. So if you are inclined to enjoy the sunny weekend day outdoors be careful with any fire sources to prevent any wildfire starts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 845 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A ridge of higher pressure has a high chance of building into the southern plains for the start of next week. This will most likely keep dry and fair weather across the panhandles for Sunday but with warming temperatures. However this high pressure will most likely be weak in nature allowing for weather system to pass through the southern plains. The passage of these weather system can draw up gulf moisture into the panhandles allowing for periods of active weather with rain showers and thunderstorms. The period of this active weather seems likely to last for much of, if not all, of next work week. There is still to much uncertainty to put much emphasis on rain amounts of strength of thunderstorms at this time. So keep in touch with future forecast to learn the latest on any chances of rain next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 0Z TAF period. LLWS is possible at GUY beginning at 9Z, however, confidence is still too low at this time to include in TAFS. Winds will remain predominantly out of the NNE. AMA will see more consistent winds overnight around 12-15 kts, whereas wind speeds at DHT and GUY will diminish overnight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.