textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

-Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon and again on Monday for the majority of the Texas Panhandle.

-Windy conditions for the central and western combined Panhandles this afternoon, which may also produce blowing dust with reduced visibilities at times

-Watching for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms for the far northeastern combined Panhandles this afternoon.

-Rain and thunderstorm potential return for Thursday through Saturday for many areas of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Low clouds continue to linger throughout the late morning hours with the southwest edge of the cloud shield in the western and southern Texas Panhandle clearing out as of the latest 17Z obs. Starting in the mid levels, the main H500 trough with its neutral tilted axis continues to move east across portions of the central Rockies. Closer to the surface, a low pressure system will develop in SE CO/SW KS with a trailing dryline currently in the eastern Plains of New Mexico. This dryline should quickly mix east into the eastern Panhandles by the mid afternoon. Compared to model runs 24-36 hours previously, this dryline according to the latest datasets over the past few hours still have the dryline in the eastern Panhandles by 00Z. If this trend still holds, that puts portions of the northeastern Panhandles in the risk of a severe thunderstorm or two later this afternoon into the evening hours. Not a high chance (20- 30%), but still a change to the forecast we have to watch closely. The most aggressive model datasets has a small window before 00Z of clockwise LL shear with decent H850-700 theta-e ahead of the dryline with CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Large hail and damaging winds possible with storms that become severe in the NE corridor if this setup can be established. Also monitoring overall cap that sfc based storms have to overcome, which would limit rain chances overall. Going into the evening hours approaching 06Z, rain chances should quickly exit the Panhandles to the northeast.

Meanwhile for the central and especially the western combined Panhandles, in the wake of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon. As clouds clear out throughout the day, deep mixing profiles, along with a H850 30-40 kt SW-NE jet will develop across eastern NM and into the western Panhandles. This will provide areas in the aforementioned areas of the Panhandles with the chance of wind gusts in the 50-55 mph range overall (10-20% chance of 60 mph in the far NW Panhandles) before winds subside well into the evening hours. Along with the higher wind gusts, will be watching closely for blowing dust potential with sudden drop in visibilities at times. High temperatures today will range from the lower 80s across the northern combined Panhandles to upper 80s to lower 90s in the far southern TX Panhandle.

Dry conditions return for Monday with a cold front moving south through the Panhandles the second half of the day. Ahead of the cold front for the southern TX Panhandle, we could see critical fire weather conditions once again due to breezy SW winds and low RH values. High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the northern combined Panhandles to mid/upper 80s in the southern TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Dry conditions will continue through mid week, with perhaps another potential day of critical fire weather conditions for the SW Texas Panhandle on Tuesday. The latest global model and numerical data indicates a southern CONUS track low pressure system could bring our chance for more widespread rainfall towards the end of the work week. Watching closely the tack and the axis of moisture transport for finer details to the forecast, but it does look promising for some rainfall at this time. With increased cloud cover and rainfall chances towards the end of the long term forecast period, high temperatures will drop to well below average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions to start the 18Z TAF period at KAMA/KDHT and IFR conditions to start the TAF period at KGUY. IFR conditions due to low cigs should improve to VFR within the first 1-3 hrs of the TAF period with clearing from SW to NE. Winds will be south and southwesterly 5-115 kts to start the TAF period, increasing to 20-30 kts with gusts over 40 kts at times from around 20-21Z through 00-02Z before winds then subside to 10-20 kts sustained the remainder of the TAF period. During the period of highest winds today, will have to watch for periods of BLDU. Winds at KAMA could gusts to near 30 kts at times towards the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are once again expected for the majority of the Texas Panhandle, minus the far north central and northeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle for Monday. Watching a cold front move into the combined Panhandles on Monday. Behind passing cold front for far norther central/northeastern TX Panhandle and OK Panhandle, RH rises would greatly limit critical fire weather conditions. Out ahead of the cold front further south into the Texas Panhandle by the afternoon hours on Monday, min RH values will get as low as 8 percent with westerly 20 ft winds at 20-25 mph, resulting in RFTI values topping out between 4 to 6. ERC percentile range from the 80th to 89th percentile.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>003-006>008- 011>013-016>018-317.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001-006>020- 317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.