textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Very hot temperatures will continue today before a weak front provides cooler temperatures for the weekend.

- Thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight, and potentially Friday as well.

- Triple digit heat may return early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Heat, heat, and more heat has been the recurring weather headline for the Panhandles over the past week or so... well today is no different. High pressure is still solidly in place, meaning afternoon highs are set to reach 100-109 for a majority of the forecast area. Despite a 10-15 mph south breeze, low 60s dew points in the eastern Panhandles will make heat index values climb to 105 or higher even if temperatures don't reach 105. Thankfully, tomorrow should be far more bearable as high pressure gradually degrades atop the High Plains. A weak cool front will sag southward early Friday as a result, dropping temps 5-10 degrees across the board (mid to upper 90s with a few triple digits).

Storm chances will be present again this evening into Friday, as a weak disturbance within upper level flow initiates another round of convection on the high terrain of CO & NM. CAMs depict additional scattered showers and storms developing along outflow boundaries from this activity. This trend puts most of the CWA in play for 20- 30% rain chances Thu night through Fri morning, although many locations will still be left high and dry. While quality of instability remains in doubt (some models showing MLCAPE between 500- 1000 J/kg while others show 1000-2000 J/kg), strengthening northwest flow aloft will help shear values reach the 20-30 kt range. Considering these parameters in conjunction with DCAPE values of 1000- 2000 J/kg, strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and small hail can't be ruled out today-tonight.

Friday's storm chances will greatly hinge upon the position of the front through the day, as most models show it progressing south of the I-40 corridor by the afternoon-evening. This would likely leave the best axis of moisture and lift on the southern and western fringes of the Texas Panhandle, unless the front's progression is stalled significantly. Either way, 20-40% storm chances are forecast for the aforementioned areas. Most rainfall will be light to moderate with both opportunities, but there could easily be isolated pockets of 0.5-1.0" rain totals with any stronger storms.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

August begins with the false hope of cooler temperatures to come, as Friday's cold front should drop high temps in the low to mid 90s across the Panhandles. Global guidance shows the dome of high pressure shifting slightly westward over the desert southwest during this weekend, allowing a brief pattern shift to northwest flow atop the region. This pattern is typically more favorable for precipitation, but lack of moisture behind the front will limit us to a 10-20% chance for some lingering showers/storms on Saturday across the western TX Panhandle. But overall, this weekend should hypothetically hold some of the best temperatures over the next 7 days.

All good things must end though, as most models unfortunately show high pressure meandering back towards the Plains early next week. Probabilities heavily favor the return of triple digit heat as a result, lasting through at least mid next week. Low chances for spotty summertime storms will return as well (15-20%), but the Euro and GFS are both trending drier compared to this week in terms of deep layer moisture availability. Ensemble mean precipitation outlooks are holding fairly steady from run to run, with overall unimpressive amounts of rainfall being brought to the region (<0.5" through next week).

Harrel

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Thunderstorm activity appears possible at all TAF sites later this evening and tonight. PROB30 groups have been introduced to capture the most likely time frame for convective impacts to the terminals. Updates are anticipated with future forecast packages. Surface winds will become breezy later this afternoon from the southwest, but later subside and become light overnight.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-007>010- 013>015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.