textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Showers will be possible late Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon.

- Frost or freeze conditions will be possible Wednesday night across the central and northern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a distinct upper-level low just off the West Coast, while a shortwave trough is still hanging in northeastern New Mexico, and a pronounced shortwave in the Southeastern US. The shortwave in New Mexico will push off to our south tonight, then we will see height rises aloft as a ridge builds over the region. A surface low will develop in eastern Colorado throughout the day leading to a steepening of the surface pressure gradient. Winds will become slightly breezy out of the southwest on the order of 15 to 20 mph. However, winds aloft look look quite weak, thus reducing the chance for a truly breezy day. The dry, downsloping winds will warm temperatures into the upper-70s to 80s across the Panhandles.

The trough off the West Coast will not make much progress east by Monday morning, but the ridge over the High Plains will continue to build. A deeper surface low, likely to be less than 1000mb, is favored to developing east-central Colorado/west-central Kansas. Breezy conditions may be present across the southern and central combined Panhandles while the northern Panhandles gets spared the wind owing to being closer to the surface low where there's a weaker pressure gradient. Warmer and drier conditions will be present on Monday as compared to Sunday which could lead to elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle.

Winds will at least start Monday night westerly at 10-15 mph, but a cold front will work in from the north late Monday night. The southern Texas Panhandle will see lows in the mid-50s to low-60s while the northern combined Panhandles will see more seasonable lows in the 40s.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

To start Tuesday, there'll be an upper-level trough over the Southwestern US and a larger trough over Canada and the Upper Midwest, with a shortwave moving into the Northwestern US. The former trough will be tracking eastward while the latter will be tracking southward. While this is happening, a plume of mid-level moisture from the Pacific will be advecting toward the Panhandles as a cold front progresses in. Most guidance suggests that this front will begin to slow down south of the Canadian River, then stall or possibly even retreat once it reaches the far southern Texas Panhandle. The timing of this front leads to some uncertainty with regards to Tuesday's highs. The lowest uncertainty is in the southwestern Texas Panhandle where the front may not pass through until after the mid-afternoon, while the largest uncertainty stretches from near Dalhart to Amarillo to Collingsworth county where the front may be by mid-afternoon.

Rain chances will begin to increase some around 18z, but moreso after 7 PM Tuesday when stronger forcing begins to arrive. The strongest forcing looks to be in the 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday timeframe. Rain chances look higher in the northern Panhandles (closer to the strongest forcing, best available moisture), and lower in the south (weaker forcing, more questionable moisture). Late Tuesday night, there has been and continues to be a consistent signal regarding a dry slot that will work into the Texas Panhandle. With that said, there continues to be questions regarding the speed and track of both systems which is leading to significant uncertainties in all aspects of the rain potential. Wherever this dry slot comes through, it will likely cut off rainfall from early Wednesday through much of the day. There is a sign that some residual Pacific moisture could work in Thursday afternoon with a renewed chance for some rain showers, but that currently carries only a low chance. Overall, again, the better chance for some rain showers will be in the far northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle, while it may be better for the rest of the Texas Panhandle to not expect much (if any) rain.

One aspect that does carry some certainty is the idea that this is likely to not be a system that produces over an inch of rain; the median QPF on the NBM ranges from 0.05" to 0.30" in the northern Panhandles with less than 0.05" elsewhere. The 90th percentile QPF ("reasonable worst case") has up to 0.70" in the north and 0.05" to 0.25" from the southwestern Texas Panhandle to the northeast. Keep in mind that the 90th percentile QPF is not something we should expect to happen on a large scale, but rather a more localized scale (e.g., "a few locations may see as much as...").

Otherwise, Wednesday's high temperatures are very much up-in-the-air as well. latest guidance suggests that Tuesday's front will dissipate, then another front will move in from the north Wednesday afternoon. The timing and strength of the front will be key to Wednesday's highs; but model guidance suggests that breezy conditions will be possible ahead of, and behind, the front. Winds will taper off through Wednesday night, and frost or freeze conditions will be possible north of I-40.

The weather system will push off to the east for Thursday and we'll see heights aloft rise as a surface high pushes off to the southeast. This will quickly result in downsloping westerly winds across the Panhandles which will allow for the temperatures to quickly rebound into the upper-70s to mid-80s.

Although it's a far way out, there is relatively decent agreement among operational and ensemble model guidance that there'll be a cut- off trough over the Southwestern US on Friday. This won't impact weather on Friday as it'll be dry with temperatures well into the 80s to low-90s. Will have to watch Saturday if enough moisture low- level and mid-level moisture can return ahead of the trough as it meanders east.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be the main story as they will be out of the southwest in the 10 to 15kt range gusting at times to 25kts. Some LLWS around 40kts out of the southwest will be possible after 7z at KAMA and KDHT.

Weber

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.