textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through at least Wednesday. There is a very low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm each day.

- Widespread upper 90s to triple digit temperatures are expected to continue through at least Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

As temperatures rise to the triple digits today, already low storm chances appear to be on the decline for the TX Panhandle. Gusty southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 are ushering in drier sfc air to much of the Panhandles, along with some drier mid-level air mixing down as well. Despite weak lift and relatively drier air, southwest flow in the mid to upper levels will be advecting better theta-e to the region, which may be enough to still pop a rogue storm or two along a sfc trough across the south central and southeast TX Panhandle. Any convection this afternoon would be high- based thanks to 50-60 degree dew pt depressions (highs in the 100s with 40s-50s dew points), which would make beneficial rainfall harder to come by (10-15% chance for measurable rain). Any storm that can develop could become strong/severe with damaging wind gust potential thanks to 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, ~20kt bulk shear, and 1000-2000 J/kg of DCAPE.

After a balmy and breezy night with lows only in the 70s, tomorrow will be just as hot if not even a few degrees warmer than today across the Panhandles, with a threat for heat related impacts once again. Our synoptic pattern remains characterized by high pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our northwest, positioning southwest flow aloft over the region. This regime will help a surface low deepen over eastern CO, placing a tighter pressure gradient over the Panhandles once again. This spells an even breezier Sunday with southwest winds sustained 20-30 mph, gusting up to 40 mph. This breeze will thankfully help high temperatures of 100-105+ feel more bearable, but not completely negate the effects of the dangerous heat we expect to materialize.

Unlike today, storm chances are holding steady tomorrow afternoon- evening when a weak disturbance within the flow is set to arrive. Another mass influx of 700mb theta-e is slated to be advected northward through the day, and surface winds are forecast to stay more out of the south-southeast across the eastern Panhandles maintaining 50s-60s dew points. Better low level lift along the sfc trough would ensue, increasing the odds of convective development primarily along and south of HWY 60. HREF data places 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE along and east of this boundary, along with 20-25 kts of bulk shear. DCAPE values may not be as stout as today, but inverted-v signatures can still be found in forecast soundings with steep low-level lapse rates, indicating the potential for severe damaging wind gusts yet again. Some small hail could occur as well, but relatively warm 500mb temperatures will make it difficult to achieve severe hail sizes. In general, hi-res CAMs continue to depict scattered storm development across the south central to eastern Texas Panhandle, lifting north- northeast through the evening hours. The likelihood of seeing appreciable rainfall should be better along with better coverage of activity, supporting 20- 40% POPs for these areas from about 4 PM to 12 AM.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Our upper level pattern remains largely unchanged to start the work week, aside from some very minor shifts in the location of high and low pressure. Monday through Wednesday we are still projected to have hot and gusty conditions each day, with highs in the 90s to triple digits, as well as continued potential for afternoon-evening thunderstorms across the central and eastern Panhandles. Medium range model guidance shows low pressure in slightly closer proximity to the region these days, sending slightly cooler air and better shortwave disturbances our way for convective development (20-30% POPs). Surface winds of 15-30 mph out of the south with higher gusts will remain common place as well, but also serve to maintain decent moisture content across the region. Thursday through the end of the week, global models and ensembles suggest that troughing to our northwest will lift into the northern Great Plains, leaving the southern High Plains with weaker flow aloft and higher pressure. As a result, temperatures returning to more widespread triple digits and lower storm chances are favored for the Panhandles.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR ceilings are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be breezy out of the south-southwest throughout the period, sustained at 15-25 kts gusting up to 35 kts. Despite these breezy winds, some LLWS will be possible at all sites overnight tonight.

Harrel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.