textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

-A Flood Watch is in effect for the NW combined Panhandles where the highest chances for flooding conditions exist through Friday morning.

-Thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall potential though Friday is possible for many areas of the Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

So far throughout the day today, as of the latest 03Z observations for rainfall totals for Wednesday, values for the Panhandles have ranged from a trace, to half an inch for portions of the eastern Panhandles, to 1-2"+ for the western combined Panhandles. Latest radar and satellite observations continues to show a notable plume of sub-troical moisture moving NNE in-between two distinct synoptic features: an H500 ridge extending into the central Plains and a broad H500 low centered roughly over northern Baja California. As a result, repeat rounds of rain and thunderstorms continue to move SSW- NNE across the western Panhandles. As we go towards the end of the work week by Friday, the aforementioned ridge should decrease in coverage. This should eventually shift east the better moisture transport axis more into the central and eastern Panhandles, increasing our rain chances for these areas compared to past 24 hours.

However, through the short term forecast period, high PWAT values continue to advect into the Panhandles. Our sampled 9/24 00Z AMA RAOB PWAT values of 1.29" is in the 99th percentile for September climo values. Event higher values up to 1.4-1.5" is forecasted for the western Panhandles though Friday. The main feature we continue to watch through Friday is the shift of the main axis of lift downstream of the main H500 trough axis, parallel to the highest moisture transport axis. This combination will result in multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Currently, the NW combined Panhandles have the best chances of repeat rounds of heavy rain with flooding potential, where a Flood Watch is in effect through Friday morning. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will continue to be below average with values ranging from the lower 70s in the western Panhandles to lower 80s in the far eastern Panhandles.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Latest model guidance shows a last mid level wave traverse the Panhandles from west to east the first half of Saturday, as the main H500 ridge to the east finally compresses. In the wake of this trough, dry conditions likely to return for the weekend. A developing H500 sinusoidal flow over the western CONUS could bring additional rain chances into early next week. High temperatures this weekend into early next week should be at or above average for late September.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are favored to occur in Amarillo, Dalhart, and Guymon this morning. However, the timing is somewhat uncertain and may require amendments as details become more clear.

Thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon in Amarillo, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are favored to continue at Dalhart and Guymon through this morning, returning to VFR this afternoon and evening. A return to MVFR or IFR ceilings is favored later tonight.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ001-002.