textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected in the western Panhandles on Thursday, and again across the Panhandles on Friday.

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the central and eastern Panhandles Thursday afternoon and into the evening. These storms may become strong to severe with very large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery this evening shows a trough in the Midwest with another trough in the Western US which is dipping southward. Surface observations show a stalled southwest-northeast oriented boundary across northern Texas and into central Texas with a reservoir of low-level moisture being pooled south of the boundary. This boundary is expected to begin to retreat northwest through the night and into Thursday. With it, expecting low clouds and even some fog across the eastern and southern combined Panhandles. Some of this fog may be dense.

Expecting low clouds to persist through the morning across most of the area as dew points in the 50s advect into the eastern and central combined Panhandles. As this happens, the upper-level trough will eject out of the Rockies and into the Plains, quickly taking a negative tilt. A surface low will develop in southeastern Colorado/northeastern New Mexico which will cause warm and dry air to advect into the western Panhandles while intensifying warm/moist air advection in the eastern Panhandles and the warm/breezy/dry conditions in the western Panhandles. This leaves us with two weather hazards to watch for Thursday:

Fire weather: Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected west of a dryline. There is some uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of the fire weather conditions as there are solutions bringing these conditions further east into the central combined Panhandles. Currently anticipated the fire weather conditions to stay west of a line from Amarillo to Guymon, with critical fire weather conditions expected in the northwestern combined Panhandles where the winds will be strongest and humidity will be lowest.

Severe thunderstorms: Forecast soundings east of the dryline Thursday morning show a saturated layer from the surface, indicating thick stratus and potentially fog, to 850mb to 800mb with an EML above it. The low clouds are expected to persist through at least the morning before there are some hints that the low clouds could begin to break up to some degree in the afternoon. Favorable forcing in the form 500mb & 700mb PVA and a sharpening dryline are expected to be in place Thursday afternoon. If the low clouds can break up enough in the afternoon and allow destabilization, we could see thunderstorms develop along the dryline and push east. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg with a veered wind profile and effective shear values between 40-50 kts; these are conditions favorable for supercells to develop. Owing to the cold temperatures aloft, favorable shear and instability, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. Hail up to the size of baseballs (2.75" diameter) will be possible with supercells. There are hints that an outflow boundary with backed surface winds and enhanced moisture could move into the eastern Texas Panhandle later Thursday afternoon. This feature, should it come to fruition, could enhance the tornado threat should a supercell interact with it.

With all that said, that scenario is still very much up in the air. If clouds persist into the afternoon and temperatures are unable to warm into the mid-60s to low-70s, elevated thunderstorms would still be possible but the severe thunderstorm threat would be less.

Thunderstorms will move off to the east through the evening and should be out of the CWA by very early Friday morning.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

As the weather system pushes off to the east on Friday, we will see the dryline push well off to the east with breezy, warm, and dry conditions expected across the Panhandles. The strongest winds will be present across the northern and central Panhandles where wind gusts between 50-55 mph will be possible with around a 10% chance for wind gusts to reach up to 60 mph. This will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. However, the spatial extent will depend upon how much rain falls on Thursday. Thus, adjustments to the Fire Weather Watch may be needed once that becomes clear. A cold front will move in from the north Friday evening with some breezy winds expected for a period behind the front.

Models begin to diverge with regard to the upper-level pattern. Operational and ensemble members create a positively tilted trough extending from the Midwest into the Southwestern US, eventually creating a closed low or cut-off low over the Southwestern US. A ridge will begin to build over the Plains and we will see temperatures trend warmer from Sunday into Monday when highs will be in the upper-70s to mid-80s.

Will have to watch around the middle of the work week for rain chances to return as the upper-level trough begins to progress eastward. However, confidence in the pattern is very low at this time.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

IFR conditions are expected to start the 12Z TAF period for KAMA. VFR conditions are expected to start the 12Z TAF period for KGUY/KDHT. Low cigs will bring IFR conditions for KAMA through 14-15Z before conditions improve back to VFR levels by 16-17Z. VFR conditions are then expected at all sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Around 00Z Friday, PROB30 for potential -shra and TSRA will be possible for KAMA.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected in the western Panhandles on Thursday due to breezy, dry, and warm conditions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected in the northwestern combined Panhandles where the winds will be strongest and RH will be lowest.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are favored across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Friday due to breezy, dry, and warm conditions. The windiest conditions are expected in the northern combined Panhandles where wind gusts between 45 to 55 mph will be favored with around a 10% chance for a wind gust up to 60 mph. A cold front will move in from the north in the late afternoon into the evening hours, causing the winds to shift to northerly. Winds behind the front will be breezy for a few hours behind the front. The combination of the wind shift and breezy post-frontal winds will create hazardous conditions for wildfire spread.

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for TXZ001>020-317.

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for TXZ004-005- 009-010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for OKZ001>003.

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for OKZ003.