textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Hotter and drier conditions are expected this weekend, which can lead to elevated fire weather concerns for a majority of the Panhandles.

- Chances of storms are expected to return for portions of the Panhandles next week with these chances increasing in coverage and likelihood towards the end of it.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

As we drudge through the dog days of summer, a nearly 600 dam area of high pressure is analyzed as remaining centered over the Four Corners region of the CONUS. This broad heat dome stretches its reign of terror across the Desert Southwest, reaching well into the south central Great Plains. Our Panhandle heat wave will persist this weekend as a result, with highs peaking in the upper 90s to around 105. Breezy winds today of 10-20 mph out of the south - southwest will only become even breezier tomorrow, sustained 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Given the dryness of grasses across the region, these winds will lead to at least elevated fire weather conditions for both Saturday and Sunday.

Storm chances are slim to none today, largely due to less moisture availability and increased synoptic subsidence from high pressure aloft. Sunday however, storm chances could return for portions of the CWA in the evening hours. Both hi-res CAMs and large scale global models suggest that a weak disturbance within the flow could arrive in tandem with a corridor of higher moisture draped across the far northwestern Panhandles late Sunday. Despite weak instability, there will be about a 15% chance for scattered showers and storms to materialize in the aforementioned areas (mainly the northwestern combined Panhandles). Severe storms are not expected, but gusty winds can't be ruled out per usual. While there could be enough moisture for storms to form, there really isn't all that much available for more than a few hundredths worth of rainfall. Therefore, lightning induced fire starts will be something else to watch out for Sunday evening.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Heat is here to stay as we begin the second week of August, thanks to the synoptic pattern remaining largely dominated by high pressure. Probabilistic data even suggests 10-40% chances for highs to locally surpass 105 degrees any afternoon Monday through Wednesday. Breezy surface winds of 15-25 mph, along with low relative humidity values will lead to recurring elevated fire weather conditions on a daily basis across most of the forecast area as well.

Deterministic and ensemble data show the ridge gradually becoming suppressed as the jet stream atop the US - Canadian border sags slightly south through the week. Thankfully, the resulting southerly return flow should draw and retain higher moisture content over the region daily, especially later in the work week. POPs will be rather limited and confined to northern portions of the Panhandles Mon - Wed, but are slated to increase in coverage and likelihood by Thu - Fri. Both the ECMWF and GFS are currently forecasting PWAT values above the 90th percentile of climatology by Friday, which should be taken with a grain of salt one week out, but is still promising nonetheless. Even if rain chances wane, there is higher confidence that lower temperatures in the 80s and 90s will take over behind a front to end next week.

Harrel

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail over all sites for the next 24 hours. Breezy southerly winds today will become windy overnight and through tomorrow morning. Confidence in low level wind shear affecting the TAF sites has decreased due to weak mid level support. Strong winds at the low levels are more likely to completely mix down and become surface winds instead of staying between 1,000 to 2,000 ft AGL.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010- 014-015-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.