textproduct: Amarillo

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Record breaking temperatures are expected today which may lead to heat illnesses for those that are outside.

- Very low end critical fire weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon which will allow for wildfire starts and spread.

- Thunderstorms may occur on today, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday for mainly the eastern Panhandles and a few storms may be strong to severe.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Another very warm start to the day is expected today as breezy low level winds keep the low levels well mixed once again. Temperatures to start the day are expected to be in the mid 40s northwest to mid 50s elsewhere. With the Panhandles still underneath the influence of upper level high pressure, strong WAA will occur once again today leading to another day of record breaking highs in the 90s. Cloud cover moving in during the afternoon may limit heating somewhat. Surface low pressure with associated surface trough are expected to be in place across western KS/eastern CO down through the western Panhandles today. This will result in breezier winds across portions of the area, in particular the east. The somewhat breezy and very dry surface conditions may lead to a very marginal critical fire weather threat today.

Looking towards the late afternoon into this evening, a weak surface boundary is expected to be in place across the southeastern TX Panhandle, with higher moisture in place to the east of this feature. Decent low level to surface convergence combined with a weak shortwave may be enough to kick off some isolated, light showers or perhaps even thunderstorms. If any of the cells are able to tap into some marginal instability, thunderstorms and potentially even a marginally severe storm will be possible. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts, given the hot temperatures combined with dry low levels. Very little, if any, rain would be expected if any showers or storms do form. Have kept mentionable low end PoPs (10-15 percent) to account for this potential scenario panning out. Anything that forms will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating.

Another hot day is expected on Tuesday, but temperatures will be a bit cooler as high pressure loses its grasp on the region. Model guidance has been trending slower with the cold front on Tuesday, only having the front approximately halfway through the CWA by the early evening hours. This could lead to a 15 degree or so spread in the highs for the day, with the hottest temps across the south. Another day of showers or storms chances across the east may arise with multiple areas of potential development, one along the cold front and the other along another weak dryline/surface boundary. Sufficient instability and shear look to be in place for a couple of storms to potentially become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Any storms that do form would quickly move into Oklahoma and out of the CWA. The cold front may start to mix out and weaken across the Panhandles on Tuesday night, but weak northerly winds should still allow for some cooler air to filter in leading to lows closer to average going into Wednesday morning.

Muscha

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A cooler air mass will be in place on Wednesday behind a cold frontal passage late Tuesday. In addition to the cooler air mass, mid level moisture will also be higher out ahead of a H500 trough so widespread cloud cover is expected on Wednesday. These factors should keep temperatures cooler than the previous days, with current forecast highs in the 70s to low 80s. These temperatures may be a bit overdone if cloud cover prevents more heating than currently expected. As an upper level trough moves in on Wednesday evening, the PVA associated with the trough may be enough to generate showers and isolated storms across portions of the Panhandles. The central and west have very low confidence in rain at this point, especially going into the evening where models are showing negative theta-e advection. NBM PoPs appear way too high across this area so have lowered chances for rain on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Further east, light rain showers or thunderstorms may form before moving into Oklahoma. There may even be a marginal severe storm threat for large hail and damaging winds if everything were to pan out.

Thursday into Friday, breezy to gusty winds return to the Panhandles once again along with dry conditions across at least the central and western portions of the area. Elevated to low end critical fire weather conditions are likely once again given this scenario. Friday is a bit more interesting as a cold front races south and a dryline sets up somewhere across the eastern southern High Plains. Right now, the dryline looks to be near the OK/TX state line or further east, so the severe storm threat looks marginal at best during this time frame. The cold front will not move through the entire area during the day on Friday as things stand right now, but should be south of the area by midnight or so on Saturday morning. Gusty northerly winds are forecast in its wake along with a cooler air mass. The cooler air mass should stick around through the weekend leading to temperatures near average.

Muscha

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will persist with this TAF issuance. Winds will mainly be out of the south overnight with higher gusts up to 30 kts at KAMA. Winds will become more westerly during the day on Monday and increase up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Mid to high level clouds will continue to develop and move in over the region over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Very low end critical fire weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon across the Panhandles. Winds across the central and west are only expected be around 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts. Further east, winds will be stronger out of the south around 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. The main caveat is that where the strongest winds will be is also where relative humidity values may only drop as low as 20 percent. Further west, relative humidity values will drop down into the lower teens to single digits, but the winds will not be as strong. Red Flag Threat Index values will mainly be around 1-3 during the afternoon hours.

Muscha

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>010.

Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for TXZ011>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.