textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

An approaching warm front will bring some showers and thunderstorms overnight. Tuesday will be warm and humid, with scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off Tuesday evening, with warm but less humid conditions in the wake of the front for Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 2 PM EDT, mainly sunny skies across the region, with patchy high/mid level clouds south of I-90.

Through 6 PM this evening, high/mid level clouds will increase for areas near and south of I-90, with isolated showers/sprinkles possible mainly west of I-87/south of I-90 toward 6 PM as a warm front approaches from the southwest.

Better chances of showers/thunderstorms develop between 8 PM and midnight from southwest to northeast as clusters/bands of showers/thunderstorms currently located across western PA/NY track northeast. Although surface-based instability will remain low, elevated instability (MU CAPES 500-1000 J/kg) will develop. In addition, PWAT's will climb to 1.75"-2" after midnight, so locally heavy downpours will be possible. Becoming warm and humid overnight with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday associated with a cold frontal passage. A few severe storms may occur during the afternoon to early evening Tuesday.

Discussion:

Warm front should be lifting north/east of the region Tuesday morning, with scattered showers/thunderstorms remaining possible, especially areas north of I-90. A break in the convection is expected mid morning through early Tuesday afternoon, before additional showers/thunderstorms develop and/or translate into the region from the west during the afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest best chance for showers/thunderstorms will be later Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, especially from about Albany south and east. MU CAPES reach 1000-2000 J/kg in these areas, with 25-30 KT 0-6 km shear. This area will also become coincident with the right entrance region of strong upper level jet translating into Ontario/SW Quebec. Some storm organization will be possible mainly south/east of Albany, with isolated strong/damaging wind gusts possible, especially within any clusters/bowing segments that develop. Heavy rain will also be a threat given high PWAT's and some potential for backbuilding/training of cells. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the region for Tuesday, along with a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (isolated flash flooding).

High temps Tuesday should reach the lower/mid 80s except perhaps upper 80s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday morning and remain through the afternoon, with perhaps some higher dewpoints across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. This will lead to maximum heat indices in the lower/mid 90s within the Hudson River Valley and NW CT. At this time, no heat advisories are being issues given borderline heat indices, and brief duration in the lower/mid 90s.

Showers/thunderstorms linger until around midnight across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley/NW CT before tapering off, with clearing after midnight. Patchy fog may develop, especially in areas which receive prior rainfall. Lows mainly in the 50s/60s.

Fair and warm for Wednesday with less humid conditions, with highs in the 70s/lower 80s. Approaching upper level disturbance could bring some showers/thunderstorms to the SW Adirondacks toward daybreak Thursday, otherwise partly cloudy with lows in the 50s/lower 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms Thursday, some locally strong/severe especially near and north of I-90.

Strong shortwave translates across SE Canada and northeast Thursday. Strong mid level winds (H500 35-45 KT), falling heights aloft/cooling mid levels looks to promote at least scattered thunderstorms across the region ahead of reinforcing cold front. Given fairly strong dynamics along with approaching left exit region of cyclonically curved jet max along with steep mid level lapse rates (H7-H5 6.5-7.5 C/km) suggest at least some stronger thunderstorms will be possible, perhaps severe with wind and hail the main threats.

In the wake of this disturbance, generally fair but cooler conditions Friday, then warming to near or above normal levels by Sunday. Some showers/thunderstorms will be possible Sunday depending on possible ridge-rolling disturbances rounding the developing upper level ridge. Highs mainly in the 70s Friday, warming to upper 80s/lower 90s by Sunday. Lows mainly in the 50s/60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z/Tue...VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the afternoon at all TAF sites with a few fair weather cumulus at or above 5000 ft and some passing cirrus. A warm front crosses the region tonight leading to some passing rain showers between 05- 10z/Tue. Mainly VFR conditions are expected during these showers but some brief MVFR periods could occur. Best chance for thunder is at KPOU so included a PROB30 with this update. A more prolonged period of MVFR cigs is possible after 10z/Tue. Wind will be mainly south to southwest through the TAF period at 10 kt or less.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.